Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-06-23 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Lots of big-name hitters here facing two over-the-hill starting pitchers. Sounds like it shouldn't be too difficult for the Dodgers and Padres to reach double-digit runs, right? Not so fast. Let's not forget this game is being played at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors. Lance Lynn and Rich Hill are a combined 79 years old. Neither has good statistics, but they are savvy veterans both acquired at the trade deadline because they know how to navigate through big games such as this one. Lynn's problem is giving up too many home runs. He's surrendered 31 of them this season. But Lynn also has 151 strikeouts in 126 innings, which comes out to an average of 10.7 per nine innings. So he still can fire. The Dodgers' bullpen has shown big improvement leading the league with a 2.84 ERA since June 30 entering the weekend. The underachieving Padres offense ranks 19th in batting average and 13th in runs. Look for Hill to pitch better going from the Pirates to the Padres. The lefty won't lack motivation with this being his first start for San Diego. The Dodgers rank 24th in batting average versus southpaw pitching. This is a huge game for the Padres. They have a rested Josh Hader to go two innings if needed. |
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08-06-23 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan OVER 44 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
They began the season as backups. But quarterbacks Dustin Crum of Ottawa and Mason Fine of Saskatchewan have earned my trust. The highly mobile Crum has helped turn the Redblacks into the top rushing team in the CFL. Saskatchewan has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks. The Roughriders are giving up 27.6 points in their last three games. Fine has thrown for 302 and 284 yards, respectively, in his last two games going against Toronto and BC, who are a combined 12-3. Now he's stepping down in class. Ottawa will be without defensive back Brandin Dandridge, who has four interceptions. The Redblacks give up the third-most yards per game. The Over has cashed six of the past eight times when the teams have played in Saskatchewan. |
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08-06-23 | Fever v. Dream -7.5 | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Indiana is back in a familiar spot in the WNBA - having the worst record. The Fever are 2-13 in their last 15 games. They just were blown out, 88-72, at home by Connecticut two days ago. Atlanta isn't as good as Connecticut. But the Dream are playing for playoff seeding and have strong motivation. They are home following bad road losses to Las Vegas and Phoenix. The 20-point loss to the Mercury in their last game this past Thursday was an embarrassment. The Fever have struggled against the Dream point spread-wise going 3-12-1 ATS during the past 16 meetings. |
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08-05-23 | Storm v. Mercury -135 | 97-91 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Seattle has the worst record in the WNBA at 6-20. But two of those victories came against Phoenix. So the Mercury have double revenge being 0-2 versus the Storm. More important than that, though, is Phoenix is home and has momentum. Phoenix is 1-13 on the road, but 6-6 at home. The Mercury played maybe their best game of the season this past Thursday at home upsetting Atlanta, 91-71, as 7 1/2-point underdogs. Diana Taurasi scored 42 points to become the first WNBA player to reach 10,000 career points. The 41-year-old Taurasi is averaging 31.7 points in her last three games. She's been a big inspiration for the Mercury, who get back star center Brittney Griner. The Storm have been playing better, but are off a deflating home loss to the Wings, 76-65, this past Wednesday. Phoenix has covered its past four home games. |
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08-05-23 | Dodgers v. Padres -142 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Given their large payroll, the Padres are one of the most disappointing teams in baseball. But don't blame Blake Snell. He's the hottest pitcher in baseball having given up only six earned runs in his last 13 starts! Snell leads the majors with a 2.50 ERA. The pitching matchup is so huge in San Diego's favor that this is a fair price to lay to get Snell against probable Dodgers starter Michael Grove and what could be a host of below par LA relief pitchers. Grove has a 6.75 ERA. He just gave up eight runs on 10 hits and a walk to the Reds in six innings this past Sunday. |
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08-05-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
It's not hard to envision these teams each producing at least nine runs given the starting pitching matchup and the White Sox gutting their bullpen at the trade deadline. Chicago starter Michael Kopech has been a major disappointment after beginning his career with such high promise. He's 4-10 with a 4.49 ERA. That ERA climbs to 5.09 when he pitches at night. The Guardians just faced Kopech six days ago and got to him for three runs in five innings. Noah Syndergaard draws the start for Cleveland. Syndergaard has struggled following major arm surgery. He's 1-4 with a 6.68 ERA. |
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08-05-23 | Rays -140 v. Tigers | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Not only is there a huge class difference in this one, but also in the starting pitchers. Tampa Bay wisely traded for Aaron Civale, who is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with a 5-2 record, 2.34 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts. Civale faces a weak-hitting Tigers lineup that ranks in the bottom-three in many of the major categories, including runs, batting average and homers.
Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He's not in good form either with a 7.24 ERA in his last three starts. |
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08-04-23 | Diamondbacks +119 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
I see a wrong favorite here. The Diamondbacks have the better record, have the superior starting pitcher going and have a rested bullpen since they were idle on Thursday while the Twins weren't. Merrill Kelly is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA. He's been at his finest on the road and pitching at night. He's 6-1 with a 2.74 road ERA. His night ERA is 2.63. The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who is off his worst start of the season. He was hammered by the Royals this past Saturday giving up six earned runs on 11 hits, including two homers, in four innings. The Royals rank second-to-last in the majors in runs. Ober may be hitting a wall as he's already thrown a career-high 98 innings. He pitched 56 innings last season. The Twins could be without their home run leader as Byron Buxton has missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury. |
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08-04-23 | White Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Playing the Guardians Under in their AL Central Division games this season has won 78 percent of the time going 25-7. I'm going to ride that trend in today's game. Neither team is very good offensively, nor in good scoring form. The White Sox rank 27th in runs and 28th in OPS. They are averaging one run in their last four games. Cleveland is last in the league in homers and ranks 25th in runs. The Guardians are averaging two runs per game during their last six games. White Sox starter Mike Clevinger just faced the Guardians this past Saturday and held them to two hits in five scoreless innings. He has a 2.91 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five career starts against the Guardians. Cleveland is starting promising rookie Logan Allen, who is averaging a strikeout per inning. |
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08-04-23 | Sparks v. Mystics -3.5 | 77-79 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
These are the two hardest-hit injury teams in the WNBA. Washington still isn't going to have Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin, but I see the Mystics covering this number. The Mystics are 12-13. Los Angeles is 9-17 having lost 10 of its past 12 games. LA is 2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS on the road and this is a difficult away spot. The Sparks hosted the Liberty this past Tuesday. This is their first road contest since July 22 and it's a cross-country trip. Washington is below .500 for the first time this season. The Mystics have been idle since Sunday when they finished a three-game, five-day road trip going 0-3. They should be rested, prepared and motivated for this matchup. The Mystics are 8-4 at home. They have covered seven of their last eight home contests. |
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08-03-23 | Dream v. Mercury +7.5 | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Phoenix is 6-19, tied for the worst record in the WNBA. Atlanta is a middle-level team. So the point spread may seem right. But I see this being a much closer game than the spread indicates. Four things give me optimism the Mercury can stay within this number: No. 1: The game is in Phoenix. The Mercury are dreadful on the road, but a respectable 6-7 at home. The Dream are playing at a different arena for the fourth time in a row. No. 2: Short revenge. The Dream defeated Phoenix, 78-65, when they hosted them on July 25. The Mercury made only 5-of-24 (21 percent) 3-pointers. Brittney Griner played in that game. She missed 12 of 19 shots from the field and had a point differential of minus 20. Griner won't play today. So that actually could be a positive given how poorly she played against the Dream in the previous meeting. No. 3: Phoenix has the better defensive number. The Mercury give up a point fewer per game than Atlanta. No. 4: The Diana Taurasi factor. The 41-year star guard remains a very good player and a fiery force. Taurasi is the league's all-time leading scorer. If she scores more than 18 points today, she'll pass 10,000 career points. Phoenix fans are aware of that and will be rooting hard for her. So the fans and team should very much be motivated. |
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08-03-23 | Jets -125 v. Browns | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -125 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
The joy of having the NFL here is tempered by the history of how bad and boring the Hall of Fame game is. I usually pass on this game. But this year I see enough edges for the Jets to believe they beat the Browns. The Jets own a big quarterback advantage. The Browns are going to go with third-string QB Kellen Mond for the first half and fourth-string rookie fifth-round draft pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the second half. Mond is terrible and Thompson-Robinson isn't ready for the NFL. He's a long shot to make the team. Zach Wilson is expected to start for New York. Wilson has had it rough in the NFL, but he should shine lining up against reserves and against a work-in-progress Cleveland defense. The Jets have the stronger quarterback rotation with Wilson, Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler, the best running QB of the bunch. The Jets have had two weeks of training camp. The Browns have only had one full-scale practice session. The Jets have the deeper defensive roster. The Browns are learning a new defense under their first-year defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz. Asked where the new-look Browns defense stands right now, Schwartz said, ''That we're not ready yet.'' |
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08-03-23 | Pirates v. Brewers -125 | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh's best starting pitcher. But he's been anything but an ace lately. The Pirates have lost Keller's past five starts. Keller has surrendered 21 runs in 28 2/3 innings during this span. Keller's ERA in his last three games is 8.65. Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser has a 4.13 home ERA compared to 4.66 on the road. More than the pitchers, this one comes down to price. Milwaukee is seven games above .500. Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500. The Brewers clearly are the better team. So the price is right to back Milwaukee, especially given Keller's poor current form. |
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08-02-23 | Tigers -118 v. Pirates | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Not many pitchers would turn down a chance to go from the Tigers to the Dodgers. But Eduardo Rodriguez did. He used a no-trade clause in his contract to void a deal that would have sent him to the NL-West leading Dodgers. His Detroit teammates have to respect the heck out of him for doing that. I see the Tigers playing exceptionally hard here to support Rodriguez, who is a much better pitcher than Pittsburgh starter Osvaldo Bido. Rodriguez is 6-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The lefty has a 2.68 road ERA. The Pirates rank in the bottom-seven versus lefties in key batting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. Bido has a 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. The Tigers were held to one run on Tuesday. But in their previous four games, they averaged five runs per game. |
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08-01-23 | Dream +14.5 v. Aces | Top | 72-93 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
Atlanta hasn't been this large of an underdog all season. The Aces are having a record-breaking season, but this is too many points for them to lay. The Dream have picked up their game winning nine of their last 12. Like the Aces, they have star power with three All-Stars. Atlanta won't lack motivation. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is off a highly-satisfying 13-point home revenge win against Dallas this past Sunday. The Aces' next game is a marquee matchup on the road against New York, the other superpower in the WNBA. So this is a sandwich spot for the Aces, who once again will be without injured starter Candace Parker. The teams last met a month ago in Atlanta. The Dream covered for the fourth time in the last five meetings between the two teams. Las Vegas only was able to win, 92-87. |
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08-01-23 | Phillies v. Marlins -123 | 3-1 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Sandy Alcantara hasn't lived up to last year's NL Cy Young Award season. Not even close. However, Alcantara has started to pitch better. He's coming off a five-hit, complete game, 7-1, win against the Rays this past Wednesday. Alcantara posted a 3.31 ERA in five July starts. I like Alcantara and the Marlins to beat the Phillies, who are starting southpaw Ranger Suarez. The Marlins lead the majors by a wide margin in batting average against left-handed pitching hitting .307. The Marlins also have the second-highest on base percentage versus southpaws and rank third against them in OPS. Suarez slipped badly in July posting a 6.11 ERA. The Marlins are getting healthy as both Jazz Chisholm and Avisail Garcia are back in their lineup. |
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07-31-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
It took to the end of July. But the Padres, with their $250 million payroll, finally showed something sweeping the Rangers three games at home. That puts San Diego five games out of a wildcard spot. It probably means the Padres won't be sellers before Tuesday's trade deadline. It also means the Padres will be taking this game very seriously since it's the day before the trade deadline. There's no reason the Padres shouldn't be riding their new-found momentum with a multiple-run road victory here, especially being assured of getting nine innings of at bats. The Rockies have the worst record in the National League. Colorado also just dealt two of its four best power hitters, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, for prospects. The Padres should score a boatload of runs going from Petco Park to Coors Field and drawing Austin Gomber, who has a 7.19 home ERA. Gomber has pitched 10 innings against the Padres this year and given up 10 runs. Underrated Seth Lugo draws the start for San Diego. Lugo is in good form giving up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Lugo faced the Rockies once this season and held them to one run in seven innings. |
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07-30-23 | Calgary +2.5 v. Montreal | Top | 18-25 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
There are three elite teams in the CFL - Toronto, BC and Winnipeg. The other six CFL teams are all below .500. Calgary is 2-4. Montreal is 2-3. The Stampeders have a higher ceiling than Montreal. Their won-lost record is a bit misleading with two of their losses coming to BC and Winnipeg. The other two defeats occurred in overtime by a combined five points. Montreal has lost three in a row. Those defeats were to Toronto, Winnipeg and BC by an average of 12.6 points. This really is a must-win spot for the Stampeders since their next four games are against Toronto, BC, Winnipeg and Toronto again. Calgary can't take a loss here to the Alouettes with that murderous schedule ahead of them. The Stampeders rank fifth in both offense and defense yardage. They are the fourth-highest scoring team. QB Jake Maier is off his finest game throwing for 450 yards and four TD's in a 43-41 overtime loss to Ottawa last week. I like the Stampeders to win the battle of the trenches in this one. The Alouettes have allowed a league-worst 26 sacks in just five games. Calgary has covered 75 percent of its last 21 road games going 15-5-1 ATS. |
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07-30-23 | Mystics v. Dream -6.5 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
Atlanta is several tiers below the elite teams of the WNBA, specifically the Aces, Liberty and Sun. But the Dream have been playing their best ball winning eight of their past 11 games. They are a tier ahead of the Mystics, who are having trouble competing given all of their injuries. Washington is 1-4 in its last five games. The Mystics have failed to cover in their last five road games. They continue to be without superstar Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin. Those are three of their top five scorers. They aren't likely to have Queen Egbo either after she hurt her ankle in Washington's last game. Egbo was a front-court rotation player hoping to provide rebounding and interior defense with Delle Donne and Austin out. |
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07-30-23 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
Cleveland's Aaron Civale could be the most below-the-radar pitcher this month. He is 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA in five July starts. Civale faces a White Sox lineup that has scored fewer than five runs in six of their last eight games. He's backed by a relief corps that has the second-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. White Sox starter Michael Kopech has largely been a disappointment given his once high ceiling. However, he pitches better in day games and has a 3.05 ERA in seven career appearances versus Cleveland. He shut out the Guardians in seven innings, giving up only two hits, one walk and posting nine strikeouts when he faced them back on May 24. The Guardians are swinging cold bats managing just two runs during their past two games. They rank last in the league in homers and 24th in runs and OPS. |
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07-30-23 | Lynx v. Sun -11.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
It's not the Aces, nor the Liberty, who have the best point spread record in the WNBA. It's the Sun. Connecticut is 14-9-1 (61 percent) ATS. The Sun are tied with the Liberty for the second-best record in the league at 18-6. The Sun are in a great spot to win big against visiting Minnesota. The Lynx are in a huge letdown spot after upsetting the Liberty, 88-83, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Friday. The Lynx also carry a high fatigue rating. This is their third game in five days. Connecticut, by contrast, has been idle since Tuesday. Minnesota is without its best player, All-Star Napheesa Collier. She leads the Lynx in scoring by a wide margin and in rebounding. The Sun have covered in six of their last seven games against Minnesota. They are 2-0 versus the Lynx this season winning both times on the road by five and 21 points in the last meeting. |
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07-30-23 | Lynx v. Sun UNDER 160.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
The Lynx are going to have problems scoring against Connecticut, the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA. Minnesota is without its superstar, Napheesa Collier. She's the fourth-leading scorer in the league at 21.8 points. Minnesota is in action for the third time in five days. The Lynx are not going to push pace given their fatigue factor. They also play slower on the road. The Under has cashed in five of the Lynx's last seven away contests. Connecticut won't be taking Minnesota lightly knowing the Lynx just upset the Liberty in New York two days ago despite not having the injured Collier. |
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07-29-23 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 10.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
These are two very strong offenses facing weak starting pitchers and burned-out bullpens. Reds starter Luke Weaver has a 7.20 ERA. Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan has a 6.75 ERA, which goes up to 12.41 in his last three starts. The Reds are a top-nine scoring team. The Dodgers rank in the top-three in runs, homers and OPS. |
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07-29-23 | Guardians -128 v. White Sox | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
The White Sox managed to halt a six-game losing streak against the Guardians last night. But I see Cleveland coming back to beat the White Sox today. The White Sox have gutted their pitching staff as they became sellers in anticipation of Tuesday's trade deadline. Mike Clevinger could come off the injured list to start for the White Sox for the first time since June 14. Chicago's bullpen, though, figures to get plenty of work and the White Sox no longer have Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo Lopez and Joe Kelly. The White Sox bullpen is inexperienced, untested and lacks a proven closer. Cleveland has lost 11 fewer games than the White Sox. The Guardians have promising rookie Logan Allen on the mound. He's 4-3 with a 3.39 ERA. He pitched twice against the White Sox back in May and posted a 3.09 ERA against them in 11 2/3 innings. |
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07-29-23 | BC -7 v. Edmonton Elks | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
Even with backup QB Dane Evans, BC should beat winless Edmonton by more than a touchdown. The Elks have lost an unbelievable 20 straight home games, going 3-17 ATS in those games. The Lions are 5-1 this season. All of their victories have been by double-digits. Their average victory margin is 16.4 points. They have the No. 2 defense in the CFL. This includes a 22-0 victory against the Elks at home in Week 2. Edmonton has lost by double-digits when playing the elite teams of the CFL - Toronto, BC and Winnipeg. The Elks rank second-to-last in the league defensively. Evans won't have Dominique Rhymes, but he still has other good receivers in Keon Hatcher, Justin McInnis and Lucky Whitehead. The Lions are deep at receiver. Evans also should be able to rely on a ground attack. Edmonton has the worst run defense in the CFL. The Elks also have the worst offense in the league, ranking last in yards per game and scoring at 15 points per game. |
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07-28-23 | Red Sox v. Giants -135 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a strong bounce back effort from prideful Logan Webb today. Webb is off perhaps the worst start of his career. He was hammered for six runs in just 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals this past Saturday. Webb had a 1.59 ERA in his first three July starts before that outing. Webb is much better at home where his ERA is 2.02. This Boston's first road game since July 19. They lost their last away game to the lowly A's. |
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07-28-23 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
Since coming back from All-Star break, the Twins are averaging 5.9 runs in their last 13 games. Don't look for Royals starter Brady Singer to slow them down. Singer is one of the worst starting pitchers in the American League with a 5.55 ERA. Singer is 2-6 career-wise versus the Twins with a 6.15 ERA in 10 all-time starts against them. The Royals have the third-highest bullpen ERA at 5.17. Twins starter Sonny Gray began the season hot, but he's going through a rough stretch with a 6.62 ERA in his last three starts. Both offenses should be aided by the weather with the temperatures reaching close to 100 and the wind blowing out at 14-15 mph.
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07-28-23 | Mystics +9.5 v. Wings | 62-90 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
The Mystics are down three starters, including their superstar forward, Elena Delle Donne. But Washington has proven to be spunky and resilient. The Mystics have lost by more than nine points only once in their last 14 games. Washington has covered each of the past four times following a loss. Dallas also lost in its last game, 88-83 at home to Connecticut. That halted the Wings' five-game win streak. The Wings showed in that loss they are not among the elite teams in the WNBA. The Wings may have lost their mojo in that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead game up next playing the Aces in Las Vegas on Sunday. Washington is the better defensive team, giving up three fewer points per game than the Wings. |
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07-28-23 | Tigers v. Marlins -144 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Bad spot for the Tigers, who just dropped a doubleheader at home and had to travel to Florida. The Marlins, by contrast, were idle Thursday. Detroit has one of the weakest offenses in baseball ranking in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS. The Marlins have been tough at home with 31-20 record. Braxton Garrett should have a bounce-back effort facing this Tigers lineup. Miami is 14-5 in Garrett's starts this season. Tigers starter Reese Olson is 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA. The Marlins got a much-needed boost when they beat the Rays, 7-1, two days ago in their last game. |
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07-27-23 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Two good starting pitchers. Two weak offenses. So I don't see these teams combining for more than eight runs. Rookie Tanner Bibee has been outstanding in his four July starts going 2-0 with a 1.14 ERA. He's backed by a Cleveland bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in baseball. The White Sox have never faced Bibee. Chicago has a below average offense. Dylan Cease is the White Sox's best pitcher and a top-12 strikeout pitcher. Cease has allowed just two runs during his last two starts. He goes against a Cleveland offense that ranks last in homers and 24th both in runs and OPS. A slight wind of 4-to-6 mph will be blowing in. |
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07-27-23 | Dream v. Liberty OVER 173.5 | Top | 84-95 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
Atlanta has gone Under the total in each of its last seven games. But I see this game going Over. One reason for this is the caliber of competition. Against their last 10 opponents, the Dream have gone against a bottom-six offense nine times. The last time the Dream met a top-five offense was a dozen games ago. That was against this opponent - the Liberty. New York scored a season-high 110 points in a 30-point road victory against Atlanta. There were a combined 190 points scored in that game. The Liberty is the second-highest scoring team in the WNBA. They are averaging 92.7 points in their last four games. The Liberty is off a sloppy, narrow home win against a bad Seattle team this past Tuesday. So they should be in a high-scoring, motivated mood. The Dream is the fourth-highest scoring team in the league. They have three All-Stars who would especially like to shine playing in New York, the media capital. I don't expect the Dream to shy away. They won't slow tempo. The Liberty have huge star power led by superstars Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, who is coming off a 2-for-14 shooting performance against Seattle. Expect a much better shooting and scoring game for her. Atlanta ranks ninth in scoring defense. |
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07-26-23 | Mystics v. Lynx UNDER 161.5 | 92-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The teams met early last month. Minnesota nipped the Mystics, 80-78. It was the fifth straight time in the series that the Under won. I envision another Under today. The Mystics continue to play short-handed without two-time WNBA MVP Elena Delle Donne, streak-shooting Ariel Atkins and inside presence Shakira Austin. That's a lot of missing firepower. Minnesota is averaging 73.5 points in its last five games. The Lynx are facing a Mystics defense that ranks in the top-three. The pace should be slow. |
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07-26-23 | Orioles +101 v. Phillies | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Orioles have the second-best record in baseball with a .614 winning percentage. Maybe the oddsmaker forgot about that. Because Baltimore opened an underdog to the Phillies in a pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish versus lefty Ranger Suarez. I'm not going to turn down the Orioles. They have the most road victories in baseball and also the best record in the league against southpaws. Bradish also is a better pitcher than Suarez and Baltimore owns the superior bullpen. The Orioles are 32-19 away from home. They are 23-10 against left-handed starters. Bradish remains below-the-radar. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in his last seven starts. He has a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts. Baltimore's bullpen has the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors. Suarez is in terrible form giving up 15 earned in his last four starts spanning 22 innings. He's permitted 33 hits and 13 walks during this time frame. Wrong team favored. |
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07-26-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -136 | 11-7 | Loss | -136 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
In Zac Gallen I trust, especially when he's pitching at home. Gallen is 9-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his home starts this season. The Cardinals are one of the biggest underachieving teams. They are 12 games below .500. Arizona, by contrast, is eight games above .500. Jack Flaherty gets the start for St. Louis. He's not the same elite pitcher he was before injuries took a toll. Flaherty is 7-6 with a 4.39 ERA. This is a day game. Flaherty's day time ERA is even worse at 5.66. |
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07-25-23 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers -138 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Rarely do the Dodgers lose back-to-back home games. You have to go back to June 18 to find the last time that happened. Look for LA to bounce back after a 6-3 extra inning loss to Toronto last night. The Dodgers are 29-17 at home. They have Julio Urias, last year's ERA champion, on the mound. Urias is bouncing back from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for six weeks. He was shelled by the Orioles in his last start. Prior to that, however, Urias had allowed only two earned runs in his previous two starts spanning 12 innings with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Blue Jays have never faced Urias so Urias has a surprise element in his favor. Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has pitched much worse on the road this season where his ERA is 5.81. |
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07-25-23 | Fever v. Sparks -145 | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
Los Angeles is 0-8, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games. Yet the Sparks are favored against Indiana. What does that tell you? It tells me that the Sparks are the correct side. I see the Sparks halting their losing streak here against the Fever, who have a worse overall record than Los Angeles and are 1-9 in their last 10 games. The Sparks have played six of their past eight games on the road. They've been hard hit by injuries. But now the Sparks have gotten healthier. Both Lexie Brown and Layshia Clarendon are back for Los Angeles. Brown is the team's No. 2 scorer, while Clarendon is second on the team in assists. The Fever ranks with Seattle as having the worst defense in the WNBA giving up 86.2 points per game. Indiana has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to LA. |
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07-25-23 | Mets -116 v. Yankees | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
I could understand Justin Verlander being priced this low if the Yankees were any good. But they are not. The Yankees are just 14-17 in their last 31 games and their record would be even worse if they didn't just sweep the pathetic Royals three games at home. During their past 31 games, the Yankees have played 39 percent of their games against the Royals, Rockies, Cardinals and A's. Those four teams have a combined mark of 141-263. It's obvious the Yankees are much worse without Aaron Judge. The Mets also are just 14-17 in their last 31 games. But they are 3-1 in Verlander's last four starts. They also beat the Yankees when future Hall-of-Famer Verlander last pitched against them on June 14. Verlander gave up one run to the Yankees on three hits in six innings in that game. Verlander has surrendered three runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. He held the White Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings during his last start this past Wednesday. He is 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 24 career starts against the Yankees. Domingo German goes for the Yankees. He pitched a perfect game against the A's in Oakland on June 28. But he's a mediocre pitcher. Since then, he's 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts. On the season, German is 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA. |
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07-24-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -141 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -141 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks are a good team, but in circle-the-wagons mode after concluding a 2-7 road trip with a loss on Sunday to the Reds. I expect the Diamondbacks to get back to their winning ways as they draw the Cardinals, one of baseball's biggest underachievers this season, at home. Arizona is 12 games above .500 with a winning home record. St. Louis is 12 games below .500 and has a 22-30 road mark. Morale can't be good for the Cardinals with the Aug. 1 trade deadline looming and rumors they'll be big sellers. The strongest part of this handicap, though, is Adam Wainwright coming off the injured list to get the start for St. Louis. Wainwright is 41. He needs to finally call it quits. Before he went on the DL he could have had the worst three-game starting sequence of any pitcher this year. During his last three starts - spanning just eight innings - Wainwright gave up 17 earned runs! That's a 19.12 ERA. He yielded 24 hits, six walks and four homers during this eight-inning stretch. Ryne Nelson is expected to start for Arizona. His numbers are 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA. Nelson, however, has pitched well in four of his last five starts giving up two earned runs or fewer. One bad outing against the Mets skewed his season numbers.
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07-23-23 | Mets v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This isn't the best time for the Red Sox to go with a bullpen game. But that's the way they are going with Brennan Bernardino, who hasn't thrown more than two innings in a game this season, the likely opener. The Mets and Red Sox played twice on Saturday so their bullpens carry high fatigue ratings. The Red Sox should do plenty of damage against Mets starter Carlos Carrasco, who is on the downside of his career. Carrasco is having a dreadful season with a 5.35 ERA. He has a bad history against Boston, too, with a 7.47 ERA in 31 1/3 career innings. The Red Sox rank in the top-six in runs, batting average and OPS. |
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07-23-23 | Ottawa +5 v. Calgary | Top | 43-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
Seems strange to say, but the Redblacks might have found their best quarterback in Dustin Crum following season-ending injuries to starter Jeremiah Masoli and Tyrie Adams. You may recall Crum from his Mid-American Conference days with Kent State. He was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2021. Crum rallied Ottawa from a 25-6 deficit to a 31-28 upset overtime victory against Winnipeg last week. Crum accounted for 261 yards passing and another 103 yards rushing. This was against a Blue Bombers defense that gives up the second-fewest yards per game in the CFL. Ottawa is now 2-3, same as Calgary. The Stampeders needed to pull out a 33-31 win against Saskatchewan last week to reach that mark. The Stampeders have not shown to be very good this season. Calgary is giving up an average of 28 points its last three games. The Stampeders haven't faced many mobile QB's such as Crum either. Ottawa ranks No. 2 in the CFL in fewest points allowed per game. The Redblacks defense should hold up against Calgary QB Jake Maier, who ranks in the bottom half among the passing yardage leaders in what has been a down year for CFL quarterbacks. The Redblacks not only hold quarterback and defensive edges, but also get the checkmark on special teams. Calgary has given up a league-worst seven big return plays on special teams. The Stampeders have fared poorly spread-wise at home, too, covering only 25 percent of their last 28 home games going 7-21 ATS. |
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07-22-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 1-4 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
The Astros just dominate the hapless A's. They've beaten Oakland 14 of the past 15 times, including all eight games this season. All but one of those victories was by more than one run. So I feel confident laying 1 1/2 on the run line with the visiting Astros, who are assured of getting nine innings worth of at bats. Christian Javier is a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. He's 7-1 on the season. The A's, losers of nine of their last 12 games and with the worst record in baseball, are starting Paul Blackburn. He's not a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Blackburn has a 5.48 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Blackburn is in terrible form with an 0-2 record, 10.03 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in his past three appearances. He does not have a good history against the Astros either with an 0-4 record, 11.25 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. |
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07-22-23 | Sparks +7.5 v. Wings | 84-98 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
On the surface, this looks like an easy winner for host Dallas. The Wings are riding a season-high four-game win streak, while Los Angeles has lost seven in a row. |
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07-22-23 | Saskatchewan v. BC -10 | Top | 9-19 | Push | 0 | 98 h 38 m | Show |
There are three powerful teams in the Canadian Football League this season - BC, Winnipeg and Toronto. Saskatchewan is at least two tiers below the Lions and could sink even more with its starting quarterback, Trevor Harris, out with injury. The Roughriders are 3-2. But two of those victories were against 0-6 Edmonton and the Roughriders only beat the Elks by a combined five points. BC ranks No. 2 in points per game and yards per game. But the Lions really shine on defense, which is bad news for untested Saskatchewan backup QB Mason Fine. The Lions have the best defense in the CFL ranking No. 1 in fewest points and yards allowed. They also are No. 1 in pass defense and have the second-most sacks. BC also has a scheduling break coming off a bye. The Lions have film on Fine since he played after Harris suffered a serious knee injury in last Saturday's loss to Calgary. The Roughriders are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and 0-5 ATS in their past five games versus above .500 opponents. BC has covered its last five home games. |
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07-22-23 | Sun v. Dream UNDER 169 | 86-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
The teams just met two days ago in Connecticut and the Sun won, 82-71. That's a combined 153 points. I'm not expecting a high-scoring game either in this quick rematch. The teams obviously are familiar with each other plus this is a very early start time. Those are both pluses for the Under. Connecticut is the No. 2 defensive team in the WNBA. The Sun forced 23 Dream turnovers in Thursday's game. The Dream do like to play fast, but the Sun will counter that with a more deliberate style. The Dream has to be worried about committing so many turnovers again. Natisha Hiedman had the best game of her WNBA career in that win against Atlanta scoring 24 points. She shot 8-of-11 from the floor while making six of seven 3-pointers. This came out of nowhere. Hiedman averages 8.4 points on the season. So I'm certainly not expecting a repeat performance. |
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07-21-23 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -108 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi started the season fast. But now he's reverted to his usual bottom-of-a rotation quality. Kikuchi is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA this month. Kikuchi has surrendered 72 homers in the past three seasons, including 22 already this year. The Mariners are quite familiar with Kikuchi since he pitched for them for three years before going to the Blue Jays. Kikuchi was 15-24 with a 4.97 ERA in 70 starts for Seattle. He was below average then and he's still below average. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are not familiar with Seattle starter Bryce Miller having never faced him. That gives Miller an edge. Miller is one of the better rookie starters in the American League. He loves to pitch in Seattle where he's 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA. |
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07-21-23 | Phillies v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
Below-the-radar starters. Strong bullpens. Wind blowing in. The right elements are in place for there to be fewer than nine runs scored in this Phillies-Guardians matchup. Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts. He has a 2.39 road ERA. The Phillies rank in the top-10 in lowest bullpen ERA. Closer Craig Kimbrel has turned back the hands of time, not allowing a run during his last 16 appearances. The Guardians have hit the fewest homers in the majors. They rank 24th in runs and OPS. Cleveland is going with rookie Gavin Williams, who has a high ceiling. He held the Rangers - the top-scoring team in baseball - to two runs in five innings during his last start. Williams has struck out 11 in his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. Backing Williams is a rested Guardians relief corps that has the second-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. The Phillies scored only seven runs during their recently concluded three-game series against the Brewers. Both pitchers should be helped by the wind blowing in at eight miles per hour. |
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07-21-23 | Liberty -8.5 v. Mystics | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Mystics have too many injuries to stay within double-digits of the Liberty. Out for Washington is Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins, Shakira Austin and Kristi Toliver. Delle Donne is one of the best players in the league. Austin is the Mystics' top inside player and Atkins is a key backcourt scorer. It's obvious the Mystics are not the same team without these players after they lost at home to the lowly Fever, 82-76, this past Wednesday. New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league averaging 87.8 points. The Mystics are giving up an average of 88.3 points during their last eight games. The Liberty are in bounce-back mode after a home upset loss to the Wings two days ago. That snapped the Liberty's four-game win streak. New York has not lost consecutive games this season. The Liberty are 4-0 ATS following a defeat. The Mystics are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing an above .500 opponent. |
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07-20-23 | Sparks v. Lynx -135 | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
The Sparks and Lynx have met three times already this season. Minnesota has won each time. The victories have been by five, five and six points. So why should this result be any different? It shouldn't be. The Sparks and Mystics are the two most banged-up teams in the WNBA. LA has lost and failed to cover in each of its last six games. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS the past four times playing LA. The Sparks haven't been able to slow down the Lynx's star inside player, Napheesa Collier. She's averaging 25 points against the Sparks this season. The scheduling spot also sets up well for Minnesota. This is the Lynx's second game following All-Star break. They started slow against Atlanta on the road this past Wednesday. But Minnesota played a lot better in the second half. The Lynx cut a 22-point Atlanta lead to one point in the fourth quarter before losing. The Lynx are 6-2 ATS following a loss. The Lynx shouldn't have any rust. No so with the Sparks. They last played eight days ago. |
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07-19-23 | Padres v. Blue Jays -113 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
The Blue Jays are 26-19 at home and have Jose Berrios starting for them. Berrios has been very good at home this season with a 2.83 ERA. Toronto is 8-2 in his last 10 overall starts. Berrios has given up only one run this month in 12 1/3 innings. The Padres are 20-27 on the road and have Yu Darvish going for them. Darvish has been quite mediocre this season posting a 6-6 record with a 4.85 ERA. He's pitched worse on the road where his ERA is 5.52. Darvish has permitted 18 runs during his past 27 1/3 innings. The price is right to back the Blue Jays at home here. |
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07-19-23 | Fever v. Mystics -135 | 82-76 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
The Mystics are a middle-tier WNBA team. The Fever are bottom-tier. The point spread is low, though, because the Mystics are extremely banged-up. The key question is can the Mystics still beat Indiana at home despite missing their best player, forward Elena Delle Donne, along with guard Ariel Atkins and center Shakira Austin? I say yes. The tradeoff on not having these three players is this low number. It's low enough where I can get involved on the money line just asking Washington to win. The Fever were the worst team in the league last year. They showed early improvement going 5-7, but have not won since losing their last eight games. Indiana has injuries, too. Its second-leading scorer, NaLyssa Smith, is out as his Lexie Hull, which thins their guard rotation. The Mystics have their top assists player in guard Natasha Cloud. She's more valuable than Atkins, a streaky shooter. Washington also upgraded its frontcourt recently acquiring promising Queen Egbo. Washington is one of the better-coached teams in the league. The 11-8 Mystics have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've played on three or more days rest. |
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07-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | 16-13 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Bye, bye Arizona. The slipping Diamondbacks, losers of 10 of their last 14 games and four in a row, have it rough again here. Arizona faces the Braves and All-Star pitcher Bryce Elder. Both the Braves and Elder are off bad performances. So the Diamondbacks can't expect any mercy. The Diamondbacks are starting Zach Davies, who has surrendered seven runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. Davies has a 6.37 ERA. He's prone to the long ball having yielded 52 homers the past three seasons. The Braves lead the majors in homers, while ranking No. 2 in runs and batting average. The Braves have smacked at least one home run in 28 of their last 29 games. So I see this as a kill spot for the Braves. Of the Braves' last 11 victories, 10 have been by more than one run. |
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07-18-23 | Dodgers v. Orioles -117 | 10-3 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
It may seem strange at first glance to see the Orioles favored against the Dodgers. But that's definitely the case in this matchup. The Orioles have the third-highest winning percentage in baseball at .613. The Dodgers' winning percentage is .581. Baltimore is 10 games above .500 at home and starting one of the most underrated pitchers in the league, Tyler Wells. He's backed by All-Star relievers Yannier Cano and Felix Bautista. Wells has allowed fewer than earned runs in 12 of his 17 starts this year. The Dodgers are starting Michael Grove, who is 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA, in what could shape up to be a bullpen game for the Dodgers. LA ranks 22nd in bullpen ERA at 4.31. |
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07-18-23 | Lynx v. Dream -5.5 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
The Dream are playing their best ball, riding a six-game win streak. They are home and will have three of the four best players on the court in All-Stars Rhyne Howard, Cheyenne Parker and Allisha Gray. Those three are averaging a combined 51 points per game. Minnesota can't stop strong offenses. The Lynx's last two games were against the Wings and Aces. They lost those games by an average of 32 points giving up an average of 110 points in those defeats. Atlanta ranks No. 3 offensively averaging 86.6 points. The Dream are averaging 91.8 points in their last six games. The Lynx have multiple injuries. They will be without their leading rebounder, Jessica Shepard, along with missing guards Aerial Powers and Rachel Banham. |
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07-17-23 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
I find this total to be too high given how bad these offenses are. The Tigers rank in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS. The Royals rank among the bottom-three in runs, homers and OPS. Kansas City has been held to four or fewer runs in eight of its last 10 games. Detroit is starting Matt Manning, who has made three starts since he was injured back on April 11. He has a 3.12 ERA in those three starts, not allowing a home run. Manning didn't give up a hit in 6 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays during his last start on June 8. Lyles is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league, but he's been better lately with a 4.24 ERA in his last three starts. |
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07-16-23 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
Note the start time. It's a rare 4 p.m. home start for Anaheim because this is the Sunday Night ESPN game. That's when the shadows are at their worst at Angel Stadium. That makes it extremely rough on the hitters for a couple of hours so a 5-inning Under total could be warranted, too. The oddsmakers opened this total at 9 with juice to the Over. But marketplace activity has moved the total to double-digits, giving it extra value considering the odd start time and what a disadvantage it is for the hitter's. Those playing Over no doubt are considering the mediocre starting pitching matchup of Christian Javier versus Tyler Anderson and that the Angels beat the Astros, 13-12, in a slugfest on Saturday night. This pitching matchup, though, is built into the line, which the oddsmaker thought should be 9. Javier is a decent middle-to-back-end starter. Anderson is better at home where he's 2-0 with a 4.94 ERA. Houston's bullpen experienced a rare meltdown last night. The Astros have one of the deepest relief staffs. They rank eighth in lowest bullpen ERA. The Angels have an All-Star closer in Carlos Estevez. There are a number of key batters who are out with injuries. The Astros don't have Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. The Angels are minus Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury. The underrated Drury has the second-most RBI's on the Angels. Other key hitters could get rested with this being a Sunday game. |
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07-15-23 | Yankees v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
The Yankees are batting a league-low .219 when they haven't had Aaron Judge, who remains out with a toe injury. But New York hasn't been playing at Coors Field, nor getting to face Connor Seabold, like they will today. Seabold is 1-6 with a 6.65 ERA. He probably shouldn't be in a big league rotation, nor will he be in one much longer if he doesn't improve his current form. Seabold is 0-3 in his last three starts with a 9.88 ERA during this span. Colorado's bullpen ranks 27th in ERA. The Yankees don't need Judge to produce a lot of runs in this one. The Rockies rank in the top-six in many offensive categories when playing at home, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. They are averaging 6.3 runs in their last six home games. The Yankees are into the bottom of their rotation pitching Clarke Schmidt, who is 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA. Schmidt's road ERA is even worse at 5.18. |
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07-15-23 | Brewers v. Reds -113 | 3-0 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
Corbin Burnes looked like his Cy Young Award-winning self on Friday. He shut out the Reds for six innings while giving up just two hits and two walks. Burnes struck out 13 in Milwaukee's 1-0 victory. It takes a lot to shut out the Reds in Cincinnati. Now, though, the story is much different. The Reds, who rank seventh in runs, drop down to face Freddy Peralta. Peralta is a disappointing 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA. Peralta has been at his worst on the road where he's 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA. Peralta is not in good form either with a 5.17 ERA in his last three starts. The Brewers hit left-handers much worse than righties and they are going against southpaw Andrew Abbott, who is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Abbott is at his best at home where his ERA is 1.83. Abbott has 48 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings. The Brewers strike out at the fourth highest rate. Milwaukee also is batting just .228 versus southpaws, which ranks second-to-last. The Brewers also are 28th in slugging percentage against lefties and 26th in OPS. |
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07-15-23 | Calgary +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 43 m | Show |
Saskatchewan is 3-1 this season while Calgary is 1-3. But don't be deceived by those records. The Roughriders own two victories against 0-5 Edmonton by a combined five points. Their other win was a 29-26 upset overtime win against Calgary three weeks ago. Look for the Stampeders to get their revenge in this rematch. The Stampeders' other two losses were to powerful BC and Winnipeg, whose combined record is 8-2. Saskatchewan is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and has failed to cover its last four home games. "We know we have to be better,'' Roughriders coach Craig Dickenson admitted. Calgary is in near must-win mode. This is the Stampeders' fifth game. Their offensive line and QB, Jake Maier, should start showing improvement by this stage. Calgary is more talented than Saskatchewan. The Roughriders are dealing with a heavy injury list, too. The Roughriders had a dozen players held out of practice among them kicker Brett Lauther, defensive back Rolan Milligan and defensive lineman Anthony Lanier II. The Stampeders are 11-2-1 ATS the last 14 times following a loss. They have covered in six of their last eight visits to Saskatchewan. |
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07-14-23 | Astros +142 v. Angels | 7-5 | Win | 142 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
Even with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, the Angels shouldn't be laying nearly this high of a price against the Astros. Down injured Mike Trout, the Angels are 1-9 in their last 10 games. The Astros are 8-4 in their last dozen games. Ohtani last pitched 10 days ago after he was removed because of a blister on his pitching hand. Is Ohtani fully healed? Even if he is, the Angels are terrible without Trout and Ohtani is 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA in two starts versus Houston this season. Houston is pitching rookie J.B. France, who has been solid with a 7-4 record and 3.32 ERA. France has a 1.95 road ERA. France also is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts. |
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07-14-23 | Yankees v. Rockies +179 | 2-7 | Win | 179 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
Just what is so dominant about the Yankees? Nothing. They are just two games above .500 on the road, rank 28th in the majors in batting at .231 and aren't nearly the same team minus injured Aaron Judge. Yet the Yankees are massive favorites at Coors Field. The Rockies are much more competitive at home. They rank in the top-six offensively in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS when playing at home. Yes, the pitching matchup on paper heavily favors the Yankees. But there is more than meets the eye here with Carlos Rodon facing Austin Gomber. Rodon is making only his second start of the season. He's still feeling his way. Rodon made one previous start at Coors Field in his career and he was roughed up for six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Gomber is pitching the best he has all season going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts. |
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07-14-23 | Toronto -5 v. Montreal | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
This price is too short. Unbeaten Toronto has outscored its three opponents by an average of 17 points in going 3-0 SU and ATS. Montreal opened with victories against Ottawa and Hamilton - whose combined record is 2-6 - but got crushed the past two weeks when stepping up in class losing to BC by 16 points and to Winnipeg by 14. Toronto is another step-up game for Montreal. I don't see the Alouettes hanging within single digits. The Argonauts should dominate the line of scrimmage. They are averaging nearly four sacks a game and have a ballhawking secondary. Montreal hasn't been able to protect QB Cody Fajardo giving up more than five sacks per game. Toronto has the top rushing attack in the CFL with AJ Ouellette and Andrew Harris along with an athletic QB in Chad Kelly. Montreal is the home team, but this spot is very much against the Alouettes. Toronto is off a bye. The Alouettes had to play in Vancouver this past Sunday and then make the nearly 3,000-mile trip back to Montreal. All of this on a short week with this being a Friday game. |
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07-14-23 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
This series is a battle for first place in the NL Central. But it's hard to take the Reds fully seriously. The reason why? Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft gets the start here for Cincinnati and he's not very good. The Reds have trotted him out for 16 starts this season. Ashcraft's record is 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA. His ERA at home is 7.95. Ashcraft has made four career starts versus Milwaukee and is 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA. He last faced the Brewers on June 3 and was rocked for 10 earned runs on nine hits in four innings. The Brewers are going with their ace, Corbin Burnes. He is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 career appearances versus the Reds. Burnes isn't having a Cy Young Award-caliber season like before, but he's still a far, far better pitcher than Ashcraft. So the short lay price on the Brewers makes them a worthy investment. |
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07-14-23 | Dodgers v. Mets +115 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
The Mets have been a major disappointment, but they have Justin Verlander going and the Dodgers are not the powerhouse of a year ago. Dodgers starter Julio Urias is having a disappointing season with a 4.76 ERA. He's not in good current form unlike Verlander with a 9.75 ERA in his last three starts. Urias has struggled on the road, too, with an 8.44 away ERA. Urias has a 5.02 career ERA versus the Mets in five appearances, including three starts. |
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07-12-23 | Storm v. Dream -8 | Top | 75-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Seattle is the coldest team in the WNBA having lost eight of its last nine, including six in a row. The Storm, though, gave it an excellent comeback effort in their last game coming from 25 points down in the third quarter to lose to the Mystics in Washington, 93-86. Unfortunately for the Storm that road game was last night. So the Storm will be playing without rest and are in action for the fourth time in seven days. That's a brutal stretch for any basketball team, especially an WNBA one, whose players have to fly commercial instead of charter. The Storm now visit a rested Atlanta team that has been idle since Sunday. The Dream are playing their best ball winning five in a row, the last four by double-digits. Led by Rhye Howard, Allisha Gray and Cheyene Parker - all All-Stars - the Dream is the No. 3 scoring team in the league. Seattle is the worst defensive team in the league. The Storm heavily rely on Jewell Lloyd to do their scoring. Lloyd, though, logged more than 35 minutes last night. She is playing on a tender ankle, too. Atlanta is the far superior team right now and the situation is another huge minus for the Storm. |
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07-11-23 | Mercury +17.5 v. Aces | 72-98 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
The Phoenix Mercury have been the biggest disappointment in the WNBA. But the Mercury also have talent and have played more competitively the past six games after a coaching change from Vanessa Nygaard to Nikki Blue. The Mercury are 3-3 ATS in their last six games. Three games ago they nearly upset New York - the second-best team in the WNBA next to Las Vegas - losing by four points as a 15-point ' road dog. Phoenix is coming off a 78-72 victory against Los Angeles this past Sunday. The Mercury are better than what they were when the Aces buried them, 99-79, in Phoenix last month shortly before Nygaard was fired. Phoenix doesn't have Las Vegas' star power. But the Mercury do have a top-five front-court player in Brittney Griner and 41-year-old guard Diana Taurasi still remains feisty and above average. The Mercury should go all-out since they won't play again for another week. That's not the case for the Aces. Their situation is much different. The Aces were fired-up after getting upset by Dallas this past Friday. They took their frustrations out on Minnesota this past Sunday winning, 113-89. This marks Las Vegas' fourth game in seven days. The Aces play the Sparks in Los Angeles on Wednesday. This is a rivalry matchup. So it's doubtful if Aces coach Becky Hammon plays her starters big minutes if her team has a comfortable lead. I believe the Mercury will keep this game close. But even if things start to get out of hand, the backdoor should stay open given the Aces' scheduling situation. |
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07-11-23 | National League v. American League OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
The Under has cashed in 13 of the last 16 baseball All-Star Games. That strong 81 percent history is a factor why early money has come on the Under. But this is the time to go against the grain. Given the many elite pitchers who have opted out, this total is too low. Among those who won't be pitching are Shane McClanahan, Clayton Kershaw, Shohei Ohtani, strikeout leader Spencer Strider, ERA leader Framber Valdez, Emmanuel Clase and Devin Williams. McClanahan has the second-lowest ERA in the majors while Kershaw ranks third. Pitching is down in this year's game with all of those elite hurlers out. That leaves some of the National League pitchers to be Josiah Gray, Kodai Senga, Alex Cobb and Mitch Keller. I don't consider any of those four as All-Star caliber. Among the American starting pitchers are Michael Lorenzen, George Kirby, Pablo Lopez and Nathan Eovaldi. These are good pitchers, but far from great. So it's not too much to ask for the top hitters in baseball to produce eight runs. Along with power, there is speed in this year's game. Stolen bases are way up in part because of the larger bags and four of the top seven base stealers are in the game. |
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07-09-23 | Aces v. Lynx OVER 171.5 | 113-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 92.6 points. They also are the top field goal percentage shooting team. Minnesota has picked up its scoring lately. The Lynx have scored at least 86 points in four of their last five games. They are averaging 88.4 points in regulation during their last five games. The Aces are motivated to pour on the points after suffering just their second loss of the season falling to Dallas two days ago. |
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07-09-23 | Sparks v. Mercury -116 | 72-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
It's not too much to ask the Mercury to beat the Sparks at home. Phoenix is playing better since a coaching change from Vanessa Nygaard to Nikki Blue. Phoenix catches the Sparks dealing with multiple key injuries. The Sparks will be minus four of their eight best rotation players. Out are Lexie Brown - the Sparks' No. 2 scorer - Nina Clouden, Chiney Ogwumike and Karlie Samuelson. The Sparks have been the hardest hit by injuries of any WNBA team. It's taken a toll as LA is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Mercury should dominate inside with Brittney Griner and a still highly-effective 41-year-old guard Diana Taurasi. She returns after sitting out Phoenix's last game for rest.
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07-09-23 | Mystics v. Sun -175 | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm expecting Elena Delle Donne to return to the Mystics' lineup today. She had been out with an ankle injury. But Washington still is very much short-handed without injured Shakira Austin and Natasha Cloud not expected to play. Connecticut is well-rested. This is just the Sun's second game since the start of the month. The teams already have met twice and Connecticut won both games, 80-74 on the road and 88-81 at home. |
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07-09-23 | Cardinals v. White Sox -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
There's a huge pitching mismatch here not reflected in the line where White Sox righty Lucas Giolito is only a slight home favorite against Cardinals lefty Steven Matz. The White Sox play better at home and they hit better against lefties where they have above average statistics in batting average and slugging percentage versus southpaws. Matz is 0-7 with a 5.02 ERA. He's pitched his way out of St. Louis' starting rotation. This is Matz's first start since May 24. Matz has been at his worst on the road going 0-3 with a 7.14 ERA. Giolito is 3-2 at home with a 2.43 ERA. He has a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts spanning 19 innings. |
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07-09-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
I easily can envision the Royals mailing this one it going against Shane Bieber and this being the final game before All-Star break. The Royals have lost six in a row - all by three runs or more. The Guardians have outscored the Royals, 19-7, in winning the first three games of this series. The Royals are 12-34 on the road this season. Ryan Yarbrough will be making his first start for Kansas City since May 7 after he was struck on the head by a batted ball. The Royals' bullpen has the second-highest ERA at 5.14. The Guardians have the second-lowest bullpen ERA at 3.11. |
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07-08-23 | Mariners v. Astros -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
The Mariners have surprised the Astros in Houston winning the first two games of this series by the lopsided margin of 15-2. Look for that nonsense to end today. Houston is 12-2 the past 14 times after dropping the first two games of a series. The Astros also are 10-1 following a home loss. The Astros have the stronger offense and better bullpen. They also hold a big starting pitching edge. Seattle is going with rookie Bryan Woo against Framber Valdez, who has a 2.49 ERA and has dominated the Mariners during his career. Valdez is 5-0 versus Seattle with a 1.94 ERA in nine career appearances. |
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07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton OVER 44 | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Neither Ottawa nor Hamilton has been especially explosive this season. But I'm expecting a loose game between two bad teams. The Redblacks should be pumped as their starting quarterback, Jeremiah Masoli, will make his season debut after being injured. He's facing an 0-3 Hamilton team that gives up 37.3 points a game and has not come up with one takeaway yet. Masoli should provide a needed spark operating against a defense that gives up the most points and yards per game of any team in the CFL. The Tiger-Cats are off a bye giving backup QB Matthew Shiltz more time to prepare. Shiltz threw for 345 yards, but had two interceptions in his first start of the season replacing injured Bo Levi Mitchell two weeks ago. That was against Montreal, which gives up the fewest points per game in the league. Hamilton scored 31 points in its opener against Winnipeg. |
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07-08-23 | Storm v. Liberty UNDER 167.5 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
The teams just met six days ago and there were only 147 points scored in New York's 81-66 road win. I like the Under to get the money again. Seattle is averaging 69.5 points in its last two games. The Storm not only are the worst-shooting team in the league, but they have committed 57 turnovers in their last three games. New York has a top-five defense. Making it rough on the Storm is the early start, which is a morning game for them going by West Coast time. As evidenced by the point spread, this has the makings of a blowout victory for the Liberty. New York doesn't have a deep scoring bench. So the Liberty's scoring could go down during the final period. |
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07-07-23 | Mets +116 v. Padres | 7-5 | Win | 116 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
The buy sign is on for the Mets in an underdog spot with Justin Verlander on the hill. The Mets have picked themselves off the floor to win their last five games. Verlander hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts spanning 12 innings. The right-hander figures to go at least six innings. The Mets are 25-4 when they have a starter go at least six innings. San Diego is 2-7 the past nine times facing a righty starter. Yu Darvish gets the call for San Diego. He'll be making his first start since June 21 having been sidelined by the flu. Darvish is not having a good season at 5-6 with a 4.84 ERA. That ERA soars to 7.71 in his last three starts where he's allowed 14 runs on 20 hits and seven walks in 16 1/3 innings. |
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07-07-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
Coming off a bye, 1-2 Calgary has a chance to get back into contention in the tough West Division. Teams off a bye are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season in the CFL. Winnipeg is 3-1. But its offense and defense have yet to both play well in a game. The Blue Bombers gave up an average of 29.3 points during their first three games. They held Montreal to three points in a 17-3 win last week. The Alouettes average just 20 points. They rank fourth-from-the-bottom in points and yards gained per game. Montreal picked up 363 yards despite scoring only three points. There was bad weather in that game, too. So I'm looking for the Stampeders to put up their share of points against a Blue Bombers defense that ranks below average in opponent yards per play. Calgary QB Jake Maier has played much better after struggling opening week against BC's top-ranked defense. The Stampeders have scored 26 points in each of their past two games while averaging 418 yards during this span. Maier averaged 310 yards passing in the last two games while throwing four touchdowns. Calgary suffered wide receiver injuries, but gets back Reggie Begelton this week from a rib injury that kept him out of the Stampeders' last game. The Blue Bombers have scored just 23 points in their last two games. There are some strong trends that favor Calgary: The Stampeders are 11-1-1 ATS after not covering in their previous game, which they failed to do with an overtime loss to Saskatchewan, and they are 12-3-1 ATS during their last 16 road games. |
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07-07-23 | Cardinals v. White Sox +102 | 7-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
In a battle of two of the more disappointing teams in baseball, I want the home underdog White Sox going for me here with Dylan Cease on the mound. After a slow start, Cease has shown more of his ace form. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Cease has 55 strikeouts in his last 39 innings. The White Sox are facing southpaw Jordan Montgomery. The White Sox are above average in batting average and slugging percentage against lefties. Montgomery has been pitching better, but at this price I'd rather have Cease going for me. The Cardinals have lost 22 of the past 30 times in the opening game of a series. |
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07-07-23 | Aces v. Wings +10.5 | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm not looking to fade the Aces very often. They clearly are the best team in the WNBA right now. But this is the exception. The Aces are overpriced here. It wouldn't shock me if Dallas pulled the outright upset even being a double-digit home 'dog. The teams just met this past Wednesday in Las Vegas. The Wings led by nine at halftime and by two points going into the fourth quarter. The Aces remained unbeaten at home winning, 89-82. Dallas came very close despite Arike Ogunbowale, who ranks fourth in the WNBA in scoring at 21.5 points, missing 15 of 20 shots from the floor. Dallas came close despite Satou Sabally missing the second half due to illness. She's fourth in the league in rebounding. Ogunbowale and Sabally are the Wings' top two scorers. Las Vegas was without star point guard Kelsey Plum due to illness. She's questionable for this game. This is Dallas' Game of the Year. The game is sold out in Arlington. The Aces are 2-4 ATS in their last six road games and are 0-5 ATS in their past five games against Dallas. |
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07-07-23 | Cubs v. Yankees -152 | 3-0 | Loss | -152 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Carlos Rodon is ready to make his long-awaited season debut for the Yankees. The Yankees are excited and so is Rodon. I see Rodon doing well. The Cubs are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They still could be missing Dansby Swanson, who has been out with a heel injury. Rodon posted a 0.84 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings spanning three rehab appearances in the minors. Rodon was 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA for the Giants last season in 31 starts. He's 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four career starts at Yankee Stadium. Rodon has the luxury of having a deep Yankee bullpen behind him. The Yankees are tied for having the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. Best yet, the Yankees get to face Jameson Taillon, who pitched for them the previous two seasons. Taillon has been a major disappointment for the Cubs with a 6.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He's in bad form, too, with a 7.63 ERA in his last three starts. |
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07-06-23 | Cardinals v. Marlins -127 | 3-0 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Cardinals and Marlins have switched the script so far this season. It's the Marlins who are 14 games above .500 while the Cardinals have matched a season-low 16 games below .500 after blowing a ninth inning lead against Miami last night. The Marlins would be on an eight-game win streak if you discount their games against the Braves. St. Louis is 2-6 in its last eight games. Now the Cardinals get to face Eury Perez for the first time. Perez had pitched 21 scoreless innings and had an ERA of 1.34 before running into the Braves this past Saturday. Atlanta clobbered him. No shame, though, in that. The Braves are the most powerful team in baseball ranking first in homers and OPS and second in runs and batting average. The Cardinals are going with Jack Flaherty, a one-time ace reduced to mediocrity with a 4.60 ERA having been dealt low by shoulder issues. The Cardinals have a bullpen that can not be counted on. |
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07-06-23 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
Only the Braves have shown more offense lately than the hot-hitting Reds. Cincinnati is averaging 6.6 runs in its last 17 games. The Reds have homered in 19 straight games. Look for the Reds to continue their onslaught against the Nationals in hot, muggy weather conditions in Washington D.C. Mackenzie Gore, 4-7 with a 4.48 ERA, gets the start following his worst outing of the season. The lefty gave up seven runs on six hits and three walks in just 2 2/3 innings against the Phillies this past Saturday. The Reds have gone Over 14 of the last 19 times facing a southpaw starter. Gore doesn't figure to get fielding or bullpen help. The Nationals rank in the bottom-three in fielding and relief pitching ERA. The Nationals, who rank seventh in batting average, should contribute to this Over facing rookie Brandon Williamson, who has a 5.56 ERA and 1.40 WHIP during his first nine big league starts. The Reds' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. |
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07-05-23 | Angels v. Padres -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 112 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
It's official now. The Angels are the most snake bit team in the majors. The Angels face a hot pitcher down Mike Trout, Brandon Drury, Anthony Rendon and perhaps Shohei Ohtani, who suffered a blister injury that caused his removal from Tuesday's loss to the Padres. San Diego finally could be getting untracked looking for its fourth win in five games. Seth Lugo gets the start for San Diego. He's produced a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last three starts. Contrast this with Angels starter, Patrick Sandoval, who had a horrible June posting a 7.11 ERA in five starts. The Padres are averaging 7.6 runs in their last five games. |
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07-04-23 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Look for double-digit runs to be scored in this matchup. Both the Rockies and Astros have been swinging hot bats and they are going against bad starting pitchers here. The Rockies' bullpen has the second-highest ERA in baseball at 5.03 and the Astros' bullpen has been heavily overworked. Colorado is averaging 6.2 runs in its last five games. The Rockies draw righthander Brandon Bielak, who has failed to impress during several short stints with the Astros. Bielak is up from the minors. He has a 4.37 ERA on the season. Bielak made three June starts for Houston and had a 6.61 ERA in those outings. The Rockies are tied for first for highest batting average against right-handed pitching at .266. The Over has cashed nine of the last 10 times the Rockies have gone against a righty starter. The Astros should do plenty of damage against Colorado starter Kyle Freeland and a dreadful Rockies bullpen. Houston is averaging seven runs per game during its last nine games. Freeland is 0-4 with a 7.15 ERA and an opponent's OPS of .932 during his last eight starts. Freeland has been roughed up for seven homers during his last 39 innings in this span. |
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07-03-23 | Orioles -110 v. Yankees | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Domingo German is coming off a perfect game and pitching at home. Yet it's the Orioles who opened as a slight road favorite. Surprised? I'm not. I'm on the Orioles. It's not just a case of fading German off his perfect game, which came against the A's this past Wednesday in Oakland. The Orioles have lost five fewer games than the Yankees this season. New York is 11-13 since losing reigning AL MLVP Aaron Judge to a toe injury. I also believe Orioles starter Tyler Wells is better than German. Wells is way below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer during his last six starts. Wells has recorded at least six strikeouts in eight of his last nine games and has a 0.88 WHIP. German, despite his perfect game, is 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA. The spot isn't good for the Yankees returning home after six straight road games while playing their fourth game in three days having had to play a doubleheader against the Cardinals this past Saturday. |
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07-03-23 | BC -3 v. Toronto | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
Toronto is the defending Grey Cup champion. But I have both BC and Winnipeg ranked higher in my power ratings than the Argonauts. BC is 3-0. The Argos are 2-0, but their victories were against Hamilton and Edmonton. The combined record of Hamilton and Edmonton is 0-7. The Lions showed just how dominant they are with a 30-6 road win against Winnipeg in their last game on June 22. That was a monster victory for BC. But the Lions have had ample time to get ready for this matchup. They won't be having a letdown going against the defending champions. BC is far and away the best defensive team in the league giving up just seven points a game and 236.3 yards. That's nearly 100 yards fewer per game than the No. 2 defensive yardage ranking team. Edmonton averaged 6.6 points in three of its four games. The Elks scored 31 points against Toronto in its other game, although two of Edmonton's TD's came late when the game already had been decided. The final ended up, 43-31. So that score wasn't as close as it looked. However, I see BC winning the battle of the trenches against the Argos and thus winning the game. The Lions are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games. |
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07-03-23 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
A strong wind blowing out to right field, a pitching matchup of Luke Weaver versus Jake Irvin plus two tired bullpens puts me on the Over. Reds starter Luke Weaver has yet to show he can overcome his previous arm injuries. His ERA is 6.96 and he has looked terrible in his previous three starts with a 9.95 ERA during this span. The Nationals are averaging just a tick below five runs a game during their last seven games. Surprisingly, only four teams have a higher batting average than Washington. Irving is 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA. The rookie is 0-3 at home with a 5.28 ERA. The Reds are sixth in the majors in runs. They are averaging 6.6 runs during their last 14 games. |
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07-02-23 | Giants v. Mets -124 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Justin Verlander just may have provided the much needed spark for an underachieving Mets team with his Saturday pitching game against the Giants. The Giants haven't been setting the baseball world on fire either lately losing five of their last nine games. I like the spot for the Mets here with David Peterson going against San Francisco's Ross Stripling. Neither pitcher has good season numbers. Peterson, however, is off pitching six scoreless innings against the Brewers this past Tuesday. He has a rested bullpen behind him. The Giants are averaging just 2.1 runs in their last six games. Stripling has made 10 pitching appearances for the Giants. They are 2-8 in those games. Stripling missed six weeks with a back injury. This is his first start since May 17. He might not be around for long. |
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07-02-23 | Yankees -110 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The Yankees are nine games above .500. The Cardinals are 14 games below .500. The Yankees have Gerrit Cole going against Jordan Montgomery. The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the majors by a considerable margin at 2.80. The Cardinals' bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom-10. Yet this game is priced near the pick range. That's tremendous value on Cole and the Yankees. Cole is 8-1 with a 2.78 ERA. He's amazingly solid with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts, a 2.70 road ERA and a 2.77 day time ERA. Montgomery, who pitched for the Yankees from 2017 to 2022, has a 4.14 home ERA. The Cardinals are 3-11 in his last 14 starts. |
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07-02-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Royals | 1-9 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
If it weren't for the A's, the 24-59 Royals would have the worst record in baseball. The Royals, though, are off a rare victory against a strong team. They got past the Dodgers, 6-4, on Saturday. Don't look for a repeat. The Dodgers are 47-20 following a loss. They won by multiple runs the following game after each of their past three losses. Kansas City is 15-36 following a victory. LA starter Tony Gonsolin should encounter little resistance against a Royals attack that ranks in the bottom-five in runs, batting average, homers and OPS. Gonsolin has a 2.16 road ERA. The Royals are going with Brady Singer, who has a 5.88 ERA. I don't see Singer doing well against a Dodgers offense that ranks in the top-four in runs, homers and OPS. |
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07-02-23 | Brewers v. Pirates -102 | 6-3 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Brewers are running short on quality relief pitchers. They also are going against crafty, veteran lefty Rich Hill. Yes, Hill is way over the hill. But the Brewers can't hit lefties. Milwaukee is 10-15 versus southpaws. The Brewers are last in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS against lefty pitching. Milwaukee starter Colin Rea has an ERA worse than Hill's at 4.57. Rea's daytime ERA is 5.20. The Pirates have been swinging hot bats averaging 7.4 runs in their last five games. |
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07-01-23 | Winnipeg -6 v. Montreal | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 68 h 4 m | Show | |
Montreal is 2-0. Winnipeg is off an embarrassing, 30-6, home loss to BC. Yet the Blue Bombers are around a touchdown favorite on the road against Montreal. What does that tell you? It tells me the Alouettes are a bogus 2-0 with victories against Ottawa and Hamilton, who are a combined 0-5. I don't see Montreal successfully stepping up in class against what's sure to be an angry Blue Bombers squad. Even being dominated by BC, I still rank the Blue Bombers as the second-strongest team in the CFL. One terrible performance in two years against the best team in the league doesn't erase how potent their offense is. I fully expect Winnipeg to clean up its offensive line and for Zach Collaros to play much better. He has the weapons. Montreal has good defensive statistics. However, Ottawa is the lowest-scoring team in the league at 13.5 points and Hamilton ranks third-from-last in points and yards. Winnipeg is 6-2 ATS after not covering in its previous game. The Blue Bombers also have covered in seven of their last 10 visits to Montreal. |
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07-01-23 | Marlins +152 v. Braves | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
The Braves have the best record in the National League. They just whipped the Marlins, 16-4, at home on Friday. But too little respect is being given to the Marlins for today's game with a pitching matchup of Eury Perez versus Charlie Morton. The Marlins have the third-best record in the National League. They would be the leader in two of baseball's six divisions. Prior to Friday's loss, the Marlins had won seven consecutive road games. Perez is 5-1 with a 1.34 ERA. He is 3-0 with a 0.60 ERA in day games, which this matchup is. Perez hasn't been scored upon during his last three starts spanning 21 innings. Atlanta leads the majors in homers, Perez, however, has only surrendered two homers in his last eight starts. The 39-year-old Morton has a 4.74 home ERA. |
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06-30-23 | Rays -132 v. Mariners | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Shane McClanahan says he feels good and is ready to go. That's enough for me to back McClanahan and the Rays at a fair price against the Mariners. Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball at 56-28 and McClanahan is the Rays' best pitcher if not the best pitcher in the league. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 16 starts. McClanahan last pitched on June 22 against the Royals, but was pulled after 3 2/3 innings because of back tightness. He said he's fine now and eager to make this appearance. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Seattle has lost four of its last five games, dropping three games below .500. The Mariners are 7-21 the last 28 times they've faced a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Mariners rank 27th in batting average and 24th in OPS. The Rays, on the other hand, have a lethal combination of power and speed. They rank No. 3 in homers and first in stolen bases. Tampa Bay also is second in runs and third in OPS. The Rays are going to be a difficult challenge for rookie Bryce Miller, who has a 3.88 ERA and was shelled by the Yankees and Rangers during two of his last five starts. |
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06-30-23 | Dodgers v. Royals +1.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Opponents have figured out Dodgers rookie starter Bobby Miller. Since posting a 0.78 ERA through his first four starts, Miller has permitted 13 runs during his last two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings against the Giants and Astros. His ERA for his last two starts is 12.10. Getting a plus price on the run line and given the toughest situational circumstances for the Dodgers, I'll make a pizza bet on the Royals. I have to take 1 1/2 runs, but Kansas City could spring the outright upset. Morale is good right now for the Royals after they came from behind to upset the Guardians at home on Thursday. The Dodgers just finished a three-game road trip against the Rockies. LA's Thursday game against Colorado didn't finish until very late at night because of a long rain delay. The Royals were going to go with Jordan Lyles. He was scratched, though, due to illness. I wouldn't be involved with the Royals if Lyles was on the mound. But now Kansas City has a wild-card starter in rookie Alec Marsh, who will be making his big league debut. Marsh is a big strikeout pitcher and one of Kansas City's top prospects. Marsh fanned 75 batters in 62 1/3 innings during his minor league starts this season. The Dodgers won't know what to expect. |
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06-29-23 | Lynx v. Storm UNDER 163.5 | Top | 99-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Seattle is the worst shooting team in the WNBA. Minnesota is the third-worst scoring team in the league. Yet these teams combined for 197 points in Minnesota's, 104-93, home win against the Storm two days ago. Now the teams have made the long trip to Seattle for a quick rematch. Expect far less scoring. Besides being very familiar with each other - which is a plus for the defense - the teams don't figure to match their hot shooting from Tuesday. The Lynx made 52.3 percent of their shots from the floor. They were 8-of-20 (40 percent) from 3-point range. Minnesota ranks 10th in field goal percentage at 41.5 percent and 11th out of 12 teams in 3-point accuracy at 29.7 percent. Seattle coach Noelle Quinn ripped her team for lack of defense intensity. So the Storm will be concentrating more on defense. Seattle shot 46 percent from the field in Tuesday's game. That's well above their league-low 39.8 percent shooting. Both teams also combined to make 26-of-29 free throws for 89.6 percent. That's well above their normal free throw percentage. Minnesota has a tendency to slow pace when on the road. The Under has cashed in five of the Lynx's past six road games, including the last four. |
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06-29-23 | Astros -115 v. Cardinals | 14-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Adam Wainwright is planning to retire following this season. He's been a great pitcher. I just wish he would have retired before this year because he's embarrassing his legacy. The 41-year-old Wainwright has just one quality start in his last nine outings. His home ERA is 7.03. His ERA during his last three starts is 7.80. The Astros are the better team. They get the check marks, too, when it comes to starting pitchers with J.P. France opposing Wainwright and in the bullpen. The rookie France has been reliable. He has a 3.08 ERA in four starts this month. The Astros' lineup received a needed jolt with the return of Jose Altuve. Meanwhile the Cardinals could be minus Nolan Arenado, who left Wednesday's game because of back tightness. |
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06-29-23 | Marlins v. Red Sox -102 | 2-0 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Miami is playing well. But I don't see the Marlins sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway Park in a pitching matchup of lefty Jesus Luzardo versus Brayan Bello. The Red Sox rank fourth in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. Bello is emerging as one of the better pitchers in the American League. He has a 2.45 ERA during his last 10 starts. He is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his past three starts. |
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06-28-23 | Yankees v. A's +137 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
The Yankees won't mind seeing the A's move to Las Vegas. The Yankees fare horribly in Oakland. They are 5-14 in their last 19 games at Oakland's Alameda County Coliseum after losing there on Tuesday. The Yankees are a power team. However, Oakland is a huge pitcher's park. The Yankees rely on Aaron Judge, but he's out. The Yankees haven't been good against lefty starters particularly on the road. They face southpaw J.P. Sears and he's been highly effective during seven of his last eight starts. New York is pitching Domingo German. He's been terrible during his past two starts. So I don't mind holding my nose and backing the home underdog A's here. Let's get into specifics starting with Sears. He's hiding below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his last eight starts. Opponents are batting just .199 against him during this span. The Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 road games versus a lefty starter. They are hitting only .221 against southpaws, which ranks 28th. New York doesn't command the same respect minus Judge. The Yankees are 7-11 since losing Judge to a toe injury. The Yankees are averaging a mere 2.3 runs in their last nine games. German is going through a brutal two-game stretch having surrendered 15 earned runs in his last two outings spanning just 5 1/3 innings. He's allowed 15 hits, four walks and five homers in this time frame going against the Mariners and Red Sox. German has permitted at least one homer in each of his last five starts. |
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06-28-23 | Astros +107 v. Cardinals | 10-7 | Win | 107 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
The Astros are 3-8 in their last 11 games. The good news about that is you can now buy low on Houston. The 42-37 Astros should not be an underdog to the 33-45 Cardinals in a pitching matchup of Christian Javier against Miles Mikolas. Javier is 7-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The Cardinals have never faced him. Mikolas is 4-5 with a 4.23 ERA. He is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA in his past three starts. Mikolas has a 10.80 career ERA versus Houston in two starts. It' an added bonus for Houston if Jose Altuve returns to the lineup. |
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06-28-23 | Reds v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
The Over has cashed in each of Luke Weaver's last four starts. It's not unusual considering the Reds are an above average offensive team and Weaver has yet to regain any semblance of his pre-injury form. Weaver has been bad now for five straight years. He's 1-2 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Weaver has been a disaster this month giving up 20 runs in 16 2/3 innings. That translates to a 10.80 ERA. The Orioles rank in the top 10 in runs and OPS. Baltimore's Camden Yards is one of the best hitting parks. Baltimore is starting Kyle Gibson, who is the definition of mediocre. He has a 4.30 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and is not in good current form having surrendered eight runs across nine innings during his past two starts going against the Cubs and Mariners. Cincinnati ranks in the top-11 in runs, batting average and OPS. The Reds have scored at least five runs in 11 of their last 14 games. |