Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-15-20 | Heat +2 v. Celtics | Top | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #731 Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:40 ET - The Celtics are off a 5-point win to close out Toronto but that was preceded by losing 3 of 4 to the Raptors. Also, Boston's win that preceded the tough 1-3 stretch came by just 3 points. The point is that the Celtics have only 1 blowout win in their last 6 games and I like having the value of the couple points here with the rested Heat in this one. I know one could argue that Miami has had too much rest and could be rusty here but I just don't see Jimmy Butler and company staying rusty for more than a few minutes into this game - if even that! The Heat are 8-1 in the playoffs and the lone loss came in overtime! Miami won the one game between these teams in the bubble (August 4th victory) and I look for them to get the upset win in Game One of the Eastern Conference finals as well. Grab the points with the Heat on Tuesday. 10* MIAMI |
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09-12-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #723 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8 ET - The Rockets lost Game 4 by 10 points and that was with Harden making just 2 of 11 shots from the field! That said, and in a "win or go home" situation for Houston in Game 5, I am looking for an underdog bounce back in this game. After getting the upset win in Game 1, the Rockets have lost 3 straight games but none by more than 10 points. I realize the smallest margin of defeat in this series has been 8 points but if Houston falls short in this one look for it to be by a bucket or two. When the Rockets have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games this season they went 4-2 SU and one of the two losses came by just 5 points which means, at today's number, Houston would be 5-1 ATS in this role. After a disappointing effort in Game 4, look for the Rockets to respond here. Keep in mind, prior to that one, they had won Game 1, led Game 2 going to 4th quarter, and were tied in Game 3 going to 4th quarter. I don't see the Lakers being able to pull away again here against a fired up and determined underdog playing for their playoff lives. 10* HOUSTON |
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09-11-20 | Celtics v. Raptors +3 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #718 Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 9 ET - The Raptors have won 3 of the last 4 games but the public doesn't want to hear that. Undoubtedly Toronto is certainly no longer an attractive team to the betting masses as Kawhi Leonard jettisoned to LA to join the Clippers after winning it all with the Raptors. Now the Celtics are the popular choice in the east and have some of the bigger stars that the betting masses tend to fall in love with when the reality is something different. Grit, hard work, determination, momentum...those are some of the key factors that lead to wins in games like this. That said, when Boston was up 2-0 in this series and felt like they could take their foot off the gas they ultimately paid for it by losing 3 of the next 4 games in this series. That has not only, of course, given the Raptors life it has also given them confidence. I expect them to close out a great comeback with yet another win tonight but if they do fall short it will be by the slimmest of margins in my opinion. That said, there is value in having the points on your side in this one. Grab the underdog as the Raptors proved again in Game 6, there is no quit in this team. I really like what I am seeing from this group and expect it continue with a Game 7 win. So, as per usual, I am going contrary to the popular choice, give me the points. 10* TORONTO |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets OVER 219 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #715 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:10 ET - Game 3 of this series was on pace for 250 points as it was 64-61 at halftime. Game 2 of this series went over the total even though the 4th quarter totaled just 44 points. That game was on pace for 243 points after three quarters. With this total coming down to as low as a 219 this morning I feel we have great value on the over here. The Rockets have performed well for stretches in this series but then they ultimately falter. This is a must win game for them as a 3-1 hole will prove to be too much. The Lakers scored 117 points in Game 2 after making adjustments after looking like they didn't even want to be there in Game 1 - a loss for LA. Then, in Game 3 the Lakers had one bad quarter (the 3rd) but the rest of the game they were on pace for 121 points. That would put Los Angeles at about a 119 average last two games and they are favored by 5 here. 119-114 sounds about right for me with this one and that puts it more than a dozen points above the number. I'll take the value as I expect a huge game from the Rockets in the offensive end in a do or die situation but they can't get stops on the other end when they need to. The result, in my opinion, is a high-scoring game that could go either way. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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09-09-20 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #709 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - Brad Wanamaker scored 15 points off the bench for the Celtics on Monday. The rest of the Boston bench scored a TOTAL of 3 points! To put that in proper perspective, the Raptors bench scored 44 points in Monday's loss. Yes, the Celtics starers vastly outplayed Toronto's starters in Game 5 but I don't see that happening again here in Game 6. You know the Raptors, whom had won 2 straight before Monday's ugly loss, will respond big. I also certainly don't expect the Celtics to shoot 49.4% from the floor while the Raptors shoot just 38.8% from the floor like we saw in Game 5. Nor do I expect the Celtics to go to the line 27 times while the Raptors get just 13 free throw attempts. Boston is a popular choice in this one but the line move is giving us even more value with the Raptors now getting as much as 3.5 points as of early game day morning. I'll take it! I am expecting a Game 7 to result in this series and if the Raptors do fall short here look for it to be by just a bucket. Grab the points! 10* TORONTO |
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09-08-20 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 217.5 | Top | 103-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #705 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat @ 6:30 ET - I am expecting Giannis to play for the Bucks but, even if he doesn't, we saw what Milwaukee is capable of without him as they rallied the troops to win in overtime in Game 4. I am well aware of the fact that, without OT, Sunday's game would not have gone over the total. However, I am also well aware of the fact that the only reason it needed overtime to go over was because of a horrific 4th quarter performance in terms of scoring. I don't expect a repeat of that here and look for this game to comfortably fly over the total. Each team should shoot a little better from 3-point land overall and Miami fired up a bunch of them from long range in Game 4. The Heat had scored well in this series prior to Sunday's loss and I expect them to bounce back here. But the Bucks proved they are not going to go down without a fight. That said, higher scoring game than many are expecting here as the defense of Milwaukee has not been good in this series but the Bucks, on the other end, will keep the pressure on the Heat and I really don't expect Giannis to miss this. The turn of his ankle bothered him in Game 4 because it was already so tender. But the fact is it did not look severe at all and he'll be good to go here. I would recommend playing this one early because I expect the total to rise later. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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09-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors +2 | Top | 111-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #702 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - Sometimes a series can turn on one shot and that is what you're seeing here in this one. When the Raptors got the last second 3 to win Game 3, they took that momentum right into Game 4 and now have won back to back games. Keep in mind, Toronto won 7 of 8 regular season games in the bubble, had won 4 straight regular season games prior to the pandemic-forced shutdown and now have won 6 of 8 playoff games. In other words, this is a Raptors team that has won 17 of its last 20 games. Certainly Boston is a very good team and also has the best coach in the NBA. However, some self-doubt is creeping in as they are not knocking down shots like they had been and the Raptors are the much more confident team right now. That said, I am happy to fade the line move here and grab the couple points now being offered with Toronto. Keep in mind the Raptors also led Game 2 by 8 points heading into the 4th quarter. It is a tight series and I like having the momentum and the points on my side! 10* TORONTO |
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09-06-20 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 219 | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #745 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:30 ET - The Heat have scored at least 115 points in every game this series and the Bucks are certainly not showing any signs that they can slow them down. At the same time though, I just don't see Milwaukee getting swept right out of the playoffs without at least putting up a fight to avoid the sweep. That said, the Bucks won't stop until the final buzzer sounds on this one and they need to push the pace a bit and try to get Miami back on their heels a bit. Keep in mind, Milwaukee averaged 29 points per quarter through the first 3 quarters of what was essentially a must win Game 3. After the epic fourth quarter collapse in that one I look for the Bucks to come up with a much better "close out" in Game 4. Does that mean that Milwaukee wins and avoids the sweep? Not necessarily and that is why I am not touching the side in this game. However, what it goes mean is we should see plenty of points in this one as I expect the Heat to reach at least the 115 mark again and, this time, the Bucks are right there with them when the final buzzer sounds. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 213.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #741 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors @ 6:30 ET - Each of the first three games in this series stayed under the total so we're now seeing some value here with the over in Game 4. I look for both teams to shoot better from three point land after the Celtics made just 9 of 29 and the Raptors only 13 of 40 in Game 3. Also, Toronto was just 9 of 16 from the free throw line in Game 3. Just some crazy numbers that I don't see being repeated here and, keep in mind, that game still totaled 207 points. That is not far from the number we're looking at with this total so a few more made threes and a few more made free throws and this game is over the total. That is precisely the call I am making here as the Celtics respond with a little more emphasis in the offensive end coming off the loss. At the same time Toronto feels like they are absolutely back in it after the clutch shot to win Game 3 and will ride a wave of momentum to a strong showing in the offensive end in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-04-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #745 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Miami Heat @ 6:30 ET - Now we play the Bucks. After losing Game 1 everyone jumped on Milwaukee in Game 2. I had the Heat as you know. Why? Because I am a contrarian capper by nature and I saw the world jumping on the Bucks so, of course, I was on the other side. Now you have a case where there are finally non-believers about this Milwaukee team and we're seeing a lot more attention on Miami. So what do I do? Pound the Bucks here! After coming so close to a win in Game 2 but ultimately falling just short, Milwaukee puts it all together here and gets a resounding win by a double digit margin. You can almost feel it before it happens and there will just be a special focus from the Bucks (a very talented team of course) in this one after the way the game on Wednesday was decided late in such frustrating fashion for Milwaukee. Now it is payback time. The last 3 times the Bucks entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games they are a perfect 3-0 SU and the average margin of those 3 wins was 11.3 points per game with none of the victories coming by less than 7 points. That certainly works for our purposes here! 10* MILWAUKEE |
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09-03-20 | Raptors -110 v. Celtics | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #733 Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - Why is Toronto in the same range of line as the first two games even though they Boston prevailed in both games? Exactly! Don't be fooled here folks. Many will take the Celtics here with the prevailing thinking being just that. The feeling one of bewilderment as to why Boston is a dog even though they already have proven in back to back games that they are the better team. Well a series is a best of seven not best of three and I look for the Raptors to start getting back into this series immediately. Keep in mind, in Game 1 the Raptors got a wake up call in the first quarter and the rest of the game was played about even. In Game 2 Toronto was ahead by 8 points heading to the 4th quarter before the Celtics pulled away late and won the game by 3 points. Give Boston credit for sure but the Raptors will play the full 48 minutes here and get back into this series. The Raptors had 90 shots from the field in Game 2 while the Celtics only had 76 from the field. Toronto had more 4 more steals and Boston had 5 more turnovers. Sounds like should have been a Raptors win, right? Precisely...and this one will be! 10* TORONTO |
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09-02-20 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #729 Wednesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 6:30 ET - Everyone will be on the Bucks to bounce back here in Game 2. In typical contrarian fashion, I'll be on Miami! The Heat played (and swept) a tough team in round one of the post-season when they knocked off the Pacers. Milwaukee got a "cake walk" match-up with facing the lowly Magic and yet they struggled to pull away from Orlando often in those games. Yes, the Bucks did win 4 straight from the Magic after dropping the opener but I am just talking about the fact that there were long stretches where Milwaukee just looked a bit "out of sorts" in that series. The bad news for Bucks fans is now they are facing a Heat team that is much stronger than the Orlando team they faced in round one. Miami is scrappy and that helped lead the way to a lot of Bucks turnovers in Game 1 and the Heat were active on the offensive glass. Jimmy Butler is a very driven player and is helping lead his teammates to victory. Until (unless?) Giannis Antetokounmpo does the same for the Bucks there is some concern in Milwaukee for sure. Also, the Bucks Eric Bledsoe is dealing with a strained hamstring too and will not be 100 percent even if he plays tonight. As I mentioned in the intro here, the world will be lining up on the Bucks off a loss but there is a reason the odds makers opened up Game 2 with a line of Milwaukee -4. As fully expected, the betting markets feel the odds makers made a mistake and have run this line to a -5 and I would not be surprised to see it go higher as the day goes on but I want to get this play out to all customers early. 10* MIAMI |
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09-01-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -111 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #724 Tuesday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors Money Line (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 5:30 ET - With the line on this game dropping to as low as a -1 on the Raptors as of early game day morning, I am recommending a play on the Toronto money line for this one. It is available as low as a -110 and I fully expect the Raptors to bounce back. Yes, they lost game 1 by 18 points but the Celtics made 7 more threes on one less 3-point attempt! In other words, Boston shot well from 3-point land and Toronto did not and that 21 point variance from downtown was the difference in the game. I also like the fact that the Raptors only turned the ball over 14 times while the Celtics turned it over 22 times. That is eventually going to catch up with Boston and I don't see Toronto falling into an 0-2 hole in this series. In other words, it is payback time in Game 2 for the Raptors. 10* TORONTO money line |
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08-31-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #719 Monday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 6:30 ET - The Heat are well-rested after sweeping the Pacers in the first round. The Bucks did win 4 straight over the Magic after the losing the first game but went stretches where they truly didn't play that well against an Orlando team that they really should have dominated. Keep in mind, Miami faced a much tougher team in the first round than did Milwaukee. The Heat took on an Indiana team that finished 17 games over .500 while the Bucks took on an Orlando team that finished 7 games under .500 in the regular season. Also, Milwaukee seems more distracted by the incidents taking place in Kenosha, WI which makes sense, of course, because that city is practically a suburb of Milwaukee. The Heat didn't have that distraction come up until after they had already finished off the Magic in round one and I like what I am hearing and seeing with the Miami players heading into this first game of the round two series. Combining the factors above with the fact we get a handful of points here and I have no hesitation in grabbing the dog in this one. 10* MIAMI |
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08-30-20 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-107 | Win | 101 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #713 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 8:30 ET - The Nuggets won Game 5 and this followed a Game 4 loss that came by a margin of just 2 points. Denver also could get Gary Harris back for this game. He has worked his way back to be being closer and closer to a return. Now, after some extra time off because of the postponement of games, Harris might actually be ready to see some action here. The return of a starter, though he would likely come off the bench in this one, would be a boost to the Nuggets for sure. Either way, I like Denver in this one as they most certainly have proven they are not going down without a fight in this one. Remember Games 2 and 3 were blowout losses for the Nuggets but they have responded since then for sure. A Game 7 in a first round playoff series would be good for the NBA wouldn't it? Looks like they just might get it with this series. Keep in mind the Nuggets were a 4.5 point favorite in Game 1 of this series which they won in overtime. Now they are a 2.5 point dog in Game 6 of this series. I feel the line value here is clearly with Denver in this spot. The Nuggets, as noted above, got their tails kicked in with the ugly losses in Games 2 and 3 but they have since responded and the hungry dog bites the hardest as they say. Great line value with the underdog in this one especially when you factor in the potential return of Harris. Either way, for me, this is a great situation for backing the dog that is still down 3-2 in this series and welcomed the extra rest. 10* DENVER |
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08-29-20 | Thunder +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 80-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #703 Saturday 10* Oklahoma City Thunder (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 6:30 ET - Now, thanks to the extra time off afforded by the boycotts and resulting postponement of NBA games, Russell Westbrook is expected back for the Rockets for this one. However, he could be on a minutes limitation and also will Houston be able to seamlessly adjust with him back on the floor? Keep in mind, we're still seeing a struggling James Harden from 3-point land as Luguentz Dort continues his strong defensive play on the perimeter for the Thunder. After falling into an 0-2 hole, Oklahoma City changed things up in a bit and went to a smaller lineup at times and it has certainly worked as this series is now tied up at 2 games apiece. Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder, a pair of point guards, have picked up their level of play and the small ball approach has paid dividends for OKC. I am expecting more of the same here in Game 5 and am happy to grab the handful of points being offered. We're getting even more value here now because the markets have reacted to the Westbrook news and have pushed the Houston spread higher. The Rockets continue to jack up a lot of threes and I fully understand that is part of their normal game but with Harden making just 11 of 39 the last three games (thanks in part to Dort covering him in these games) Houston is just a bit "off" right now. Will they be able to easily adjust to Westbrook being back on the floor? I am not so sure about that! This (Rockets being just a bit "off" in recent games) has opened the door for the Thunder to take advantage and they will do so again here. Grab the points! 10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #714 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 6:30 ET - The Nuggets had a miracle cover in Game 4 when Murray hit a "meaningless" 3-pointer in the final seconds to get in the backdoor for the cash for Denver backers. From that standpoint, it would seem that Utah would be the play here. After all, the Jazz had no business not winning ATS in Game 4. However, a closer look shows something very different. The Nuggets had 100 shots from the field and shot 49% while the Jazz had just 73 shots from the field and yet Denver did not win that game outright! Are you kidding me? So what happened is that the Jazz hit a ridiculous 14 of 29 three pointers. Also, Utah had 36 free throw attempts compared to just 13 for the Nuggets. These unusually statistical disparities are highly unlikely to repeated here in Game 5 and I am riding with the highly motivated underdog here in Game 5. Not only did Denver come up just short in Game 4, the Nuggets are also highly motivated as this a win or go home game. The Jazz have a 3-1 series lead. Look for that to be a 3-2 lead for Utah after tonight's game goes into the books. 10* DENVER |
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08-24-20 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 219.5 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #703 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets @ 4 ET - I am aware that it took overtime for Saturday's Game 3 between these teams to go over the total. However, the odds makers are also aware of that fact too! They set this total at 221 and it has dropped to as low as a 219 as of early game day morning. Keep in mind that would make this one about 5 points lower than the opening total for the Game 3 match-up. That said, do you really think the Rockets are going to again make just 30% of their threes (15 of 50 Saturday) or that James Harden is going to have a 3rd straight bad game from beyond the arc? Me neither! Yes I aware that Luguentz Dort is now back for the Thunder and guarding him but Harden will get his open looks from deep and start knocking them down. Adjustments are made throughout a series. Additionally, I liked the response I saw from an Oklahoma City team that showed on Saturday that they are not just going to pack it in for this series. Last but not least, Game 3 did have 120 points at halftime so it was on pace for 240 before things tightened up the rest of the way. All signs point to good value, from a situational standpoint, with this low total. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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08-23-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +8 | Top | 133-135 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #744 Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 3:30 ET - The Mavericks announced that Luka Doncic's MRI showed "nothing alarming" and that he would be a game-time decision. That is another way of saying everything is fine but we just don't to announce it yet so everyone can wonder whether Doncic will play or not. Of course his ankle was hurting him bad after he got hurt and then it stiffens up on you and you can't move well out there on the floor once that happens. But now after receiving treatment ever since, Doncic will be ready to go here I am sure. We have strong big dog value here with the Mavericks in my opinion. The two losses they have had in this series each came by 8 points and that includes Friday's loss which featured a team-record 45 point 2nd quarter from the Clippers. Note that the Mavs beat the Clips by double digits in Game 2. Now, down 2-1 in this series and facing a key Game 4, Dallas is going to battle tooth and nail throughout this contest with Kawhi Leonard and company. That said, if the Mavericks do fall short look for it to be by a margin of only a bucket or two. Grab the big points! 10* DALLAS |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #736 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 6 ET - The Thunder got a boost defensively in Game 2 as Dort returned to the lineup. He is the best perimeter defender Oklahoma City has and he was a big part of the reason the Rockets Harden was held to 5 of 16 from the field. Though the Thunder still ultimately lost the game their confidence is up after leading the game going to the 4th quarter. The Thunder had too many turnovers compared to Houston and that cost OKC the game. Oklahoma City is a perfect 5-0 SU the last 5 times they have entered Game 3 of a playoff series down 2 games to none. This is a contrarian play as the line has moved toward the Rockets and I love the Thunder in this spot as they finally put it all together on both ends of the floor after playing much better defense in Game 2. Look for Game 3 to be a complete game for the underdog. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218 | Top | 87-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #723 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets @ 4 ET - Not only are the Jazz scoring very well so far in this series, Mike Conley is expected to clear quarantine and return to the floor for this one! He gives Utah another dangerous scorer and is expected to be back in the lineup Friday. The Jazz saw Donovan Mitchell go off for a ton of points in Game 1 and then in Game 2 he became more of a distributor and Utah was equally as dangerous on the offensive end. That said, I don't see Denver suddenly slowing the Jazz down in this one. Utah is simply playing with too much confidence and have looked great on the offensive end. However, I certainly do expect the Nuggets to respond in a big way after dropping Game 2 in ugly fashion and that means plenty of points expected from Denver in this one too. We are getting line value because the totals continue to be set somewhat based on long-term numbers and, the fact is, the Jazz are playing a different style of basketball right now than they were during the regular season. Utah, had they not lost Game 1 in OT, could easily be up 2-0 in this series. That said, the old adage of "if it ain't broke don't try to fix it" applies here and the Jazz keep piling up points. However, in this one the Nuggets end up keeping pace with them in what should be a dandy of a game as they respond off of Wednesday's loss. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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08-20-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12.5 | Top | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach NBA Rotation #716 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 6 ET – It was the first game in a week for Giannis Antetokounmpo on Tuesday (he missed the final game of the regular season after the head butt incident) and, overall, the Bucks looked like the same team that casually went through bubble play as there was no real need to push hard. Now, the push needs to come after they got embarrassed by the Magic and lost by a double-digit margin as a double-digit favorite. While many will look to again grab the big dog here (how can they again be favored by so much after Game 1 played out like it did?) I am on the other side of this game in typical contrarian fashion. Remember last season the Magic beat the Raptors in a Game 1 upset and then proceeded to lose the next 4 and get ousted from the playoffs. I am not saying the same thing happens in this one but I just know the Bucks got their “wake up call” and will be ready to respond in a big way here on Thursday. Look for Milwaukee to be much better on the defensive end and I also do not expect Middleton and Lopez to again combine for 6 for 21 from the field. Off the bench Connaughton and DiVincenzo combined for 2 for 10 from the field. Again, unlikely to be repeated! Giannis Antetokounmpo and his Bucks teammates bring their “A game” to this one and the Magic aren’t going to again hit nearly 50% from the field, 40% from 3-point land, nor 95% from the free throw line. Everything clicked for Orlando in Game 1 but the Bucks give them a dose of reality here and that is why I am more than willing to play the big number for a top play in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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08-19-20 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #705 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - This line makes no sense really except that sentiment is very anti-Sixers right now. The fact is this line is very close to the same it was for Game 1 even though the 76ers led Game 1 outright by 6 points early in the 4th quarter. Additionally, Gordon Hayward (played 34 minutes in Game 1) is now out for the rest of the series with a Grade 3 ankle strain. He'll be replaced by Marcus Smart but that further weakens a Celtics bench that the Sixers Alec Burks outscored all by himself as he had 18 points and the Boston bench had just 8 points in the opener. As much as I don't 100% trust Joel Embiid I do expect him to finish this game much better than he finished the Game 1 match-up as he couldn't get the big buckets when he needed to. The Sixers are desperate to even this series up and the situation is perfect for them to do just that after falling just short in Monday's game and now Hayward being out. The Celtics are short-handed and Philly is hungry and did win 3 of the 4 regular season match-ups between these teams. I'll gladly grab the points here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-18-20 | Thunder v. Rockets +2.5 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #772 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:30 ET - The big story for Game 1 of this series is the Rockets Russell Westbrook not playing. The story that is not getting as much press but is a key factor here is Luguentz Dort not playing. The Thunder guard is earning a reputation as a lockdown defender and did a fantastic job stifling James Harden when these teams met in January. However, he is not going to play in this game and a massive game from Harden can be expected. The Rockets version of small ball is not easy to play against and Oklahoma City head coach Billy Donovan spoke about the length and physicality that Houston plays with even though they are not a big team. Yes the Rockets enter the post-season off 3 straight losses but how motivated were they for those games? Houston did beat the Lakers and the Bucks earlier in bubble action. Also, the Rockets just wrapped up a 72-game season and only twice did they have a 4-game losing streak. I don't see this streak reaching that 4-game mark as you can see Houston having a 4-game losing streak is rare. We are getting some extra value here because the market move is toward OKC in early trading action. In typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the value on the other side as Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni (2x NBA Coach of the Year winner) wins the Xs and Os battle in this one. 10* HOUSTON |
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08-17-20 | 76ers +6 v. Celtics | Top | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #755 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - The 76ers won 3 of the 4 meetings in the regular season but lost the most recent game after winning the first 3. Philly is also seeking revenge for their 2018 playoff ouster at the hands of the Celtics. That series turned when Boston rallied from a 22 point deficit to win Game 2 and then took Game 3 in an overtime win. Now the Sixers have Al Horford going against his former team and seek payback beginning Monday evening. There is a lot of anti-Sixer sentiment since Ben Simmons was lost to injury but the 76ers have shown signs of playing better since he went out. They raise their game to another level here and possibly shock the Celtics in game one. Look for a tight game here late and if the Sixers fall short I expect it only be by a bucket or two. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | Top | 122-126 | Win | 102 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #723 Saturday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 2:30 ET - Portland was the much hotter team in the bubble but they certainly haven't looked that impressive recently in terms of blowing teams out. Yes, the Trail Blazers are on a 3-game winning streak but the 3 wins came by a combined total of 7 points! The Blazers barely got by a Brooklyn team that was playing for nothing on Thursday night! Now Portland comes into this game favored by a half-dozen points and I understand that from the standpoint that the Grizzlies have underachieved under the bubble. However, lets not forget that Memphis is the better team on the defensive end and, though just 2-2 in their last 4 games, this a must win game or their season is over. Perhaps the Grizzlies ultimately fall short by a bucket or two but, again, I am happy to take the better defensive team in a game that could turn into more of a "grinder" than most are expecting based on the high total posted on this game. Look for the dog to stay within this number and possibly even spring the upset! Give me the points! 10* MEMPHIS |
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08-14-20 | Thunder v. Clippers OVER 222 | Top | 103-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #719 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:30 ET - I am sticking with the pattern that has been working very well for me. Two teams involved that will both be playing back-ups and that means very little defensive pressure is likely and we should see a run and gun high-scoring affair. The Clippers enter this game with having played 6 straight games that totaled 229 points or more. The only game that has been low-scoring for LA under the bubble in Orlando was their very first game which was against the Lakers. Of course you will see nothing like the defensive intensity of that game here. In fact you will see the exact opposite and the back-ups will score just fine. In fact, look at Oklahoma City's most recent game. They rallied from a huge deficit thanks in large part to bench production and they beat the Heat 116-115 on Wednesday. The bench led the way to the comeback win. The Thunder reserves showed me a lot with that performance there but it was also the 3rd time in 4 games that OKC has allowed 115 points or more. That said, I look for this game to get into the 230s with plenty of scoring on both ends of the floor as it plays out with the defensive intensity of an All-Star game. In all seriousness this is like an All-Star game but without all the all-stars. It will be free flowing with a lot of great looks at the basket and I'll take advantage of the rather low total posted on this game which is based more on historical data than the true situation here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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08-13-20 | Pelicans v. Magic OVER 226 | Top | 127-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter – Rickenbach NBA Rotation #701 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 9 ET – In a meaningless game I am looking for a very free-flowing affair with very little defense and a ton of points scored. The Magic are locked in as the #8 seed in the East while the Pelicans are eliminated from playoff contention in the West. New Orleans has allowed 125 points per game in their last 4 losses. The Pelicans have averaged a respectable 114.2 points per game in their last 5 games on the other end of the floor. The Magic have lost 5 straight games and not scored well. But in their first two games under the bubble they averaged 130 points and those games got into the mid-240s. Again, there is no pressure here and this will be a free-flowing game where the shooters can run and gun and without any concern about the end result. This will play out like an All-Star game except with very few stars involved! Just a ton of offense and no defense. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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08-12-20 | Raptors v. 76ers +6.5 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #764 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 6:35 ET - The Raptors are locked into the #2 seed for the post-season and already know they'll be facing the Nets to open up the playoffs. The 76ers are dealing with injury issues and certainly can't afford to lose any more key players. That said, this game is a battle of back-ups. Keep in mind yesterday the 76ers played back-ups against a very hungry Suns team that was highly motivated and undefeated under the bubble. Phoenix finally pulled away in the 4th quarter but the Sixers were down by just 3 points with under 8 minutes to go in that game. Keep in mind, that was a game the Suns had to have while the 76ers were just playing back-ups for the most part. Now today's game is a game of back-ups and Toronto is not motivated. That said, I love the underdog value being offered to Philly in this one. Don't be surprised if they get an upset win but certainly they should manage at least the cover against the Raptors in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-11-20 | Suns v. 76ers OVER 226 | Top | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #751 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Phoenix Suns @ 4:35 ET - I used the Suns over here yesterday and it cashed and I will come right back with it again today. Phoenix has yet to lose a game under the bubble. Yesterday's win was their 6th straight and they've averaged 120 points per game during this red hot stretch. Of course that is why they're such a huge favorite here against a 76ers team that will be playing entirely back-ups in this one. A combination of rest and injury factors mean 2nd and 3rd stringers take the floor for this one. I know that may concern some in terms of whether Philly will score enough here. But with no pressure on the Sixers I am expecting them to play a very free-flowing game with a lack of defense on one end and some hot shooting on the other end. Again, no pressure on these 76ers and the Suns have proven their very happy to "run and gun" with teams. The result should be a nice pace to this game and one that easily eclipses the rather low total on this one considering the Suns are averaging 120 points per game in the bubble and are facing a Philly team that is already counting down the days to the playoffs beginning. Little resistance from the Sixers in this one and a ton of points as a result. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-10-20 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #737 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 2:35 ET - The Suns are 5-0 in the bubble thanks in part to offensive production. Indeed, Phoenix is averaging 116.4 points per game in their 5 games in the bubble. On the other end of the floor the Suns have allowed 112 points or more in 4 of the 5 games. The Thunder are off a win versus Washington yesterday and scored 121 points in that game. OKC has been a little "hit or miss" in terms of their offensive production and their tempo. However, the red hot Suns control the tempo in this one and the Thunder are going to be forced to pick up the pace if they want to keep up. As a result, look for plenty of points in this one. The Suns want to try and run the Thunder right out of the arena as Phoenix knows that Oklahoma City is in a back to back. The Suns continue to push for a playoff spot and they'll run and gun again here as a result. 10* OVER the total in Phoenix |
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08-09-20 | 76ers +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #731 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 6:35 ET - As I suspected the 76ers, whom have won 3 straight games SU but had not been covering, finally got their first cover in their most recent game. They played an Orlando team desperate for wins and it did not matter. With Al Horford back in the starting lineup because of Ben Simmons likely being out for the year, the Sixers played loose and relaxed and got the win. Look for a similar result here. Portland is desperate for wins and will be a popular choice here but a lot of pressure is on them to win and they are in a back to back spot. They totally blew their game against the Clippers and LA didn't even play Kawhi Leonard as he was rested. That was inexcusable on the part of the Blazers and now they are in a back to back spot and facing a rested 76ers team that has nothing to lose and is playing winning basketball and I look for them to make it 4 straight SU wins but will gladly grab the points being offered. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-08-20 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 232 | Top | 122-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #713 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 1:05 ET - Both teams off high-scoring wins and are shooting the ball extremely well. Portland off a particularly red hot shooting performance from beyond the arc. The Trail Blazers, not including OT, have scored 124 points or more in 3 of their 4 games in the bubble. They'll be helped by the fact that the Clippers Patrick Beverley (awarded twice to the All-Defensive team in his NBA career) is expected to miss a 2nd straight games. LA, after that fierce battle with the Lakers in their first game within the bubble, has averaged 122.3 points per game since then. You can see why I am forecasting this game to get into the 240's per the above. 10* OVER the total in Portland |
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08-07-20 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 222 | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #703 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 4:05 ET - This total has dropped from its opener and has added value to the over in this spot. The Thunder are off a fantastic effort against the Lakers and allowed 86 points in that win. Usually after a big win like that a team comes out and allows a bunch of points in their very next game. That plays right into our hands in terms of this play on Friday. Memphis is off a loss to Utah and needs to respond big as the losses keep piling up for them as they cling to the #8 seed. The problem for the Grizzlies though is they have been giving up plenty of points and seem incapable of getting key stops when they need to. Look for them to have another subpar game on the defensive end and note that the Thunder allowed 121 points to the Nuggets in their game immediately prior to the win over LeBron James and company. Look for plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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08-06-20 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 222 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #777 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat @ 4:05 ET - Off an embarrassing loss as a nearly 20 point favorite against the Nets, the Bucks respond in a big way here. Milwaukee also is getting a couple players back too for this one. The Bucks have been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA in the bubble and that will lead to plenty of points in this one. Milwaukee also has a respectable bench which is one of the tops in the NBA. The way I see this game playing out is the Bucks coming out with plenty of tempo combined with better offensive efficiency than we've been seeing from them. They are healthier, they are going to play their starters more, and they're looking for a big-game effort from everyone. The Heat will be forced to "run and gun" to keep up with them as the Bucks force the tempo. The result should be a big Bucks win that lands close to the number ATS but, in my opinion, crushes the total and flies over. That is why I am going with a big game play here on this total. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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08-05-20 | Raptors v. Magic OVER 221.5 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #771 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This total, as of early game day morning, has already made a big downward move from 224.5 to 221.5 in early action on the game. I look for the Magic defense to struggle in a back to back situation and they have allowed an average of 118 points per game in their first three games. But even though they continue to give up piles of points, Orlando is in a battle for a playoff spot and they'll continue to battle hard in that regard. That means they'll have to turn to the offensive end to try and get an upset win here and the Magic are averaging 123 points per game in their first 3 games back. Though the Raptors, one of the top teams in the East, have been involved in a pair of lower-scoring games since the reboot I look for a different story here. The first two games for Toronto were against the Lakers and the Heat and, as a result, were more intense defensive-minded battles. The Raptors have dominated the series with the Magic and could easily overlook them here as a result. The point is a little less defensive intensity and a free-flowing game is likely. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the early line move here but that is with good reason as explained above. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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08-04-20 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 229 | Top | 119-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #751 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets @ 1:35 ET - Don't look for the Bucks to take their foot off the gas in this one. Yes, they'll be resting guys late with a huge lead but their bench will be just fine against the Nets. That said, I look for a very high-scoring game here as the Bucks take out their frustration on an over-matched Nets team. Milwaukee lost a tight one to the Rockets on Sunday because they scored just 4 points over the final 3 minutes of the game. Brooklyn is off a key win over Washington that same day and that built confidence in the offensive end. Yes it was only the Wizards but just getting a W and having a successful effort and scoring 118 points means something. Now the Bucks will impose their will on the Nets and then after establishing a huge lead this game turns into a free-flowing high-scoring run and gun affair as the Bucks bench players get to enjoy their time on the floor too against an out-classed Brooklyn team in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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08-03-20 | Spurs v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #748 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8 ET - This one is all about the value. Yes, the Sixers lost to the Pacers Saturday but Philly led that game by 10 points with under 9 minutes to go. Now Philadelphia catches the Spurs in the 2nd night of a back to back. Also, the 76ers dominated the glass and outrebounded Indiana by about 20 boards in the defeat but were done in by a late collapse and by being outscored by 15 points from 3-point land. Here is what is most interesting about this spot and is why there is so much value here. The 76ers are favored by nearly the identical spread in this game that they were favored by in the game against the Pacers. Anybody looked at the standings lately? Yes the Spurs are off back to back wins but their record is not even close to the Pacers. Also, San Antonio beat two teams (Kings and Grizzlies) that each have losing records and they barely won each game. Give them credit of course but the point is that they are very over-valued here especially with this being a back to back spot. Look for an angry Sixers team to take out their frustration on a short-handed San Antonio team that will grow weary as this game goes on. Keep in mind the Spurs do not have Aldridge plus Belinelli and Forbes have been banged up. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-02-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies -4 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #732 Sunday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 4:05 ET - Memphis is off a tough OT loss to Portland Friday and it was a game that the Grizzlies allowed to get away from them late in regulation. They'll make up for that here. Even though Memphis fell short to the Trail Blazers they did a great job of getting to the free throw line. They simply were outdone from three point land. The difference in 3-point shooting means so much in the NBA game and the Spurs hot hand from beyond the arc certainly played a role in their win over the Kings on Friday. From a situational perspective, this one sets up well with the Grizzlies off a tight loss but against a stronger team (in my opinion) than the Spurs faced. Also, San Antonio pulled away late in that game so don't be fooled by the final score. Again, the 3-point shooting was also a factor and, in other words, I like the "overall game" of the Grizzlies better than the Spurs and barring another unusual 3-point disparity look for Memphis to win this one by double digits. While I respect San Antonio's veteran coach Popovich, Grizzlies young head coach Jenkins has impressed this season and was a Bucks assistant last season (and what season it was!) plus started his career in the San Antonio organization. Jenkins and his Grizzlies have taken 2 of 3 from the Spurs this season and get another one here to solidify their edge over the Spurs in the standings as Memphis looks to pull away from the field battling for the #8 spot out west. Grizzlies respond off loss. 10* MEMPHIS |
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08-01-20 | 76ers -5.5 v. Pacers | Top | 121-127 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Week Eastern Conference - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #723 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 7 ET - All you hear people talking about with the Sixers entering this NBA restart is how bad their road record was this season. Well guess what folks? This is NOT a road game. Not even close. There is NO TRAVEL between games. You are in a bubble and once you are there you stay there. No catching a flight between games, no changing from one hotel to another, no raucous fans for the opposition. This is a neutral site game with NO TRAVEL involved and there will be no travel throughout the remainder of the NBA season including playoffs. That said, lets now analyze this match-up for the teams involved. What I am hearing is Joel Embiid's calf strain is very minor and I feel they simply gave the big man some extra rest before this NBA restart got underway. The fact is that he has been looking to be in the best shape of his young NBA career as the time off during the sports shutdown really helped him. Another key here in comparing these Sixers to the team we saw pre-shutdown is that Ben Simmons is now back and healthy. That is huge for this team. For the Pacers the news is not so good. Domantas Sabonis, an All-Star, is out for this game. Myles Turner and Victor Oladipo both should play here for Indiana but neither is 100%. So while this line may look a little "off" to many, I absolutely not only see the logic with the line but embrace it. Look for the Sixers to make a HUGE statement in this opening game as they are sick of hearing about not winning away from Philly and they are the healthier and more talented team in this match-up and that will show today. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-31-20 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #712 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - The Bucks have two objectives here in the "regular season" portion of the NBA restart. #1 is to stay healthy and #2 is to lock up the top seed in the East. They are close to meeting that 2nd objective but they can't do it without risking the 1st one. In other words, I don't foresee the Bucks holding back until they've locked in that #1 seed and they are fired up and ready to go here. They were not happy with their performance in the scrimmage against the Pelicans earlier this week as they lost big. Yes it was only a scrimmage but they're also letting it serve as a "wake up call" and you'll see them play much better basketball here in this one now that it is time for games that count. The Celtics can't catch the Bucks for the top spot but the Raptors can. Even as unlikely as it is that Toronto would catch the Bucks for the top spot, until they've nailed it down, Milwaukee will give top effort. That is bad news for an outclassed Boston team. Yes the Celtics are well-coached and are a quality team but they are certainly not at the same level as the Bucks. What I also like about Milwaukee here is that they lost their final 3 games before the unexpected and sudden NBA shutdown. The Bucks have had plenty of time to think about their 3-game losing streak and how they will need to prove again that they can win again away from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. With all of the above factored into this one, I feel we have great line value with a determined Bucks team laying a short number and, though this is my only NBA play Friday, it has easily earned top play status! 10* MILWAUKEE |
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07-30-20 | Jazz +2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 55 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #701 Thursday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 6:30 ET - I am wasting no time in coming out with a big play to open up the NBA restart in Orlando but it comes with plenty of good reason. This line opened up in Vegas with the Jazz originally as a 1.5 point favorite but the line flipped and New Orleans is now up to a -2.5 choice as of Tuesday morning. Zion Williamson is back inside the NBA bubble in Orlando and is expected to be able to practice Wednesday. However, he has been away from the team for some time now and how effective (and how long) will he even be able to play in Thursday's opener. This is a very short turnaround for him. I am well aware of the fact of how important this game is for the Pelicans. However, this early line move is telling me people are overlooking the fact that the Jazz have 41 wins on the season and are the #4 seed currently in the West but have 3 teams with 40 wins hot on their tails. Do you really think Utah wants to possibly drop to the #7 seed which would lead to a match-up against a #2 seed to open up the playoffs in a couple weeks from now? That would likely mean a date with Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers. The Jazz absolutely do not want that to happen. In other words they are more motivated here than many realize and they're also hungry to let their play on the court do the talking to put an end to all chatter about the Donovan Mitchell - Rudy Gobert highly publicized "internal conflict" back in the spring at the time the entire pandemic and NBA shutdown started. The Pelicans won 10 of 19 games that Zion played in but there are a lot of question marks about him leading into this game. Additionally, the Jazz (even though without Bojan Bogdanovic) have a quality team. Bogdanovic averaged just 16 points and shot just 40% from the field over the last 10 games. Utah will be just fine without him here and this is a Jazz team that is 18 games over .500 for a reason! They lost their final game before the shutdown but that was preceded by a 5-game winning streak and the Jazz get right back to their winning ways immediately here to get the restart off to a strong start. 10* UTAH |
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03-11-20 | Hornets v. Heat OVER 211 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #551 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - The Heat are off a low-scoring win over the Wizards and that was the 3rd time in the past 5 weeks they have held a team under 90 points. Their next game flew over after each of the first two occurrences and I expect the same result here. When Miami is a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 12 points, the over is 26-11 including 11-4 this season! The Heat have averaged 121.4 points per game their last 7 games at home. Miami scored 117 points in their only other game against Charlotte this season. The Hornets, not including OT, have averaged 111 points per game their last 4 games while allowing 110 points per game during this same stretch. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 home games for the Heat. The over is 6-2 in Charlotte's divisional games this season. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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03-11-20 | Pistons v. 76ers -10.5 | Top | 106-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #550 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons have been more competitive of late but they are still losing and, in this case, are in the wrong place at the wrong time. This one has blowout written all over it. Detroit is visiting Philly and the Sixers are at home off a loss and playing their one and only game in a span of a week. Between the 7th and the 14th this is the 76ers only game and they have had a chance to get healthier with the time off. Joel Embiid might be back for this one and Josh Richardson has been upgraded to probable. If both Embiid and Richardson play then Philadelphia will be fully healthy expect for Ben Simmons. That said, they won't show any mercy on a Pistons team they routinely dominate. The Sixers are 28-2 SU at home this season and they are 9-1 both SU and ATS in their last 10 games against the Pistons. In other words, the odds favor that any 76ers SU win is also likely to translate to an ATS cover! Detroit is an ugly 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against an Eastern Conference foe. In February there were 3 occurrences in which the Sixers were at home off a loss. They went a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in that situation and do it again in their first such situation in the month of March. Blowout time. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-11-20 | Georgia +3.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 81-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Power Five Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #671 Wednesday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (+) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 7 ET - The Bulldogs just got hammered in their season finale against LSU but Georgia actually had 10 more field goal attempts than the Tigers and yet lost the game by 30 points. It was simply "one of those games" and is now giving us some line value here as a result. This is a revenge game for the Bulldogs as they have lost 3 straight meetings with Ole Miss. What better time for payback than the SEC tourney? Georgia finished the regular season with back to back losses to Florida and LSU but this was preceded by a 3-1 stretch in which they only loss the Bulldogs had was in overtime! The Rebels enter this game off a disheartening blowout loss to Mississippi State as those Bulldogs are their biggest rivals. That was the 5th straight loss for the Rebels in games played away from Ole Miss. The Rebels have allowed 73.2 points per game their last 5 games. The Bulldogs have averaged scoring 75.2 points per game in regulation of their last 6 road games prior to the ugly season-ending loss at LSU. The Dawgs were ultra-competitive in all those road games and the last five included an outright win and an OT loss. They get over the hump again here in a revenge game against a Rebels team getting a little too much respect from the betting markets in this one. The Bulldogs average 10.5 points per game more than the Rebels in comparing games played away from home this season for these two SEC foes. 10* GEORGIA |
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03-11-20 | Northwestern v. Minnesota OVER 136.5 | Top | 57-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #651 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Northwestern Wildcats @ 6 ET - The Wildcats won 2 of their last 3 games so they have a little momentum heading into the tournament. Northwestern has scored at least 66 points (exclusive of OT points) in 4 of its last 6 games. The Golden Gophers are favored by about 8 to 9 points here with good reason. In other words a 75-66 type game would not be unexpected to say the least and that gets us into the 140s here. The Wildcats have allowed 73.5 points per game their last 8 games and will have their hands full with the Gophers here. Minnesota beat Northwestern 83-57 late last month as the over went 2-0 in regular season meetings between these teams. That Golden Gophers win began a stretch in which they have scored an average of 79.8 points per game over their final 5 games of the season. Though scoring well, Minnesota has also allowed 71 points or more over their last 4 games of the regular season. The over is 5-0 in the Golden Gophers last 5 games and the over is 5-1 in Northwestern's last 6 games. Look for the high-scoring trend to continue in this Big Ten tourney match-up. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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03-10-20 | Knicks v. Wizards OVER 227 | Top | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - Both teams are coming off unusually low-scoring games on Sunday. The Knicks got a big home win over the Pistons and the over is 4-1 this season when they are off a home win by a double digit margin this season. The last time they faced the Wizards it was in New York and the Knicks got embarrassed in an ugly home loss. When playing with revenge from a home loss by a double digit margin, the over is 10-5 this season. The Wizards are off an ugly home loss to the Heat and are a long-term 17-6 to the over the past 3 seasons when off a loss to a division rival. Also, when Washington is off a loss this season the over is 26-13 this season. After being held to just 89 points at home on Sunday, the Wizards give a huge effort on the offensive end in this one. However, their season-long struggles in the defensive end continue here and this game turns into a shootout as a result. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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03-10-20 | Celtics v. Pacers +3 | Top | 114-111 | Push | 0 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #530 Tuesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - I am aware that the Pacers have some injury issues but the Celtics haven't exactly been 100% healthy either. Even guys that are playing are being limited somewhat. That said, I am going contrarian here (as usual) and fading this big move toward Boston. The line opened up around a pick'em but now the Celtics are all the way up to a 3-point favorite. Keep in mind, even as they have dealt with injury issues, the Pacers have been hot and have won 8 of their past 10 games. Boston, on the other hand, has lost 4 of its last 5 games. Also, after tonight's game, Indiana has only one game between now and the 18th. They can go all out here considering the situation and the Pacers still remember getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Celtics in April. Yes, Indiana already got some measure of revenge with beating Boston here in Indiana 3 months ago but, suffice to say, seeing the Celtics come to town brings out a little extra intensity from the Pacers. This is the team that ended their season last year. This is a key battle in the Eastern Conference playoff position standings and I am riding with the under-valued home underdog in this one. 10* INDIANA |
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03-10-20 | Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Kentucky -4 | Top | 62-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Tourney Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #616 Tuesday 10* Top Play Northern Kentucky Norse (-) vs Illinois-Chicago Flames @ 7 ET - The Norse had a long layoff before yesterday's game and actually were playing just their 2nd game in a span of over 2 weeks! It showed as they struggled in the first half against Wisconsin-Green Bay. Once Northern Kentucky worked off the rust in the first half, they were a different team in the second half. The Norse rolled to a huge win over the Phoenix and will carry that momentum right into the Championship Game today. Northern Kentucky exploded for 51 points in the 2nd half of their win over UWGB yesterday. They catch Illinois-Chicago at the perfect time for a rout. The Flames got the upset win over Wright State yesterday. Certainly the Flames deserve credit for that and for playing a strong game against the Raiders. However, now UIC faces a Norse team which they blasted by 30 points at Northern Kentucky a little over 3 weeks ago. Keep in mind the Norse went 13-5 in Horizon action this season while Illinois-Chicago went 10-8. Northern Kentucky enters this game on a 13-3 SU run. UIC has also been playing well but the Norse are the better team and playing with revenge and I like the value with this line coming down from a -5 to a -4 here. We'll take it! 10* NORTHERN KENTUCKY |
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03-10-20 | Northeastern v. Hofstra OVER 134.5 | Top | 61-70 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Total Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #613 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hofstra Pride vs Northeastern Huskies @ 7 ET - This total opened up in the low 140s and has dropped into the mid 130s. This has opened up a fantastic value situation with the over. Northeastern only won yesterday's game versus Elon by 8 points but they had a 16 point lead at the half and simply coasted in the 2nd half. The Huskies had 37 points at the half and could have scored at least that much in the 2nd half too if they had wanted to. But, given the situation, Northeastern took their foot off the gas in an easy win. This has led to situational value here because, though the Huskies can score well, they now face a tough team that can match them bucket for bucket. Hofstra was very impressive yesterday in their big win over Delaware. The Pride scored 75 points and that was the 9th time in 11 games that Hofstra has scored at least 75 points. The Huskies have averaged 73.2 points per game in their last 5 games. Look for this game to get well into the 140s as each of the regular season meetings totaled 146 points and somewhere in that range for this one is what I fully expect. That means we've got great value here. 10* OVER the total in Hofstra |
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03-09-20 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 224 | Top | 138-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #523 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - Both teams were off yesterday and both teams needed that. The Hawks in particular had some issue the last few games with injury and illness but having both Trae Young and Cam Reddish ready to go for this one is a real positive. On a 3-game losing streak, look for the Hawks to push the pace here in an effort to play the role of spoiler against a division rival. Atlanta doesn't win with defense, they win with offense. Though the Hornets playoff hopes are slim they still have some glimmer of light and the Hawks would like to turn out the lights tonight! Atlanta's last 4 home games against the Hornets have all resulted in an over. Charlotte has scored better of late and averaged 108 points per game their last 3 games after some ugly efforts. The Hornets are 3-1 in their last 4 road games and also have averaged 126 points per game in their last two visits to Atlanta while the Hawks averaged 122 points per game in those two as a host. Atlanta is favored here for a reason and they are expected to win. Why is that worthy of note? The Hawks enter this game on a 3-game losing streak and all 3 games stayed under but 6 of their last 7 SU victories have resulted in an over. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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03-09-20 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State UNDER 149 | Top | 73-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #882 Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Wright State Raiders vs Illinois-Chicago Flames @ 7 ET - This total has skyrocketed upward from its opener down around 142 to getting pushed up to around 149 as of early game day morning. I understand the move when you look at pure statistics but the situation absolutely matters here. First off it is a tourney game and those tend to see more defense. Secondly, you have a neutral site venue which often leads to poorer shooting percentages as well. Thirdly, and perhaps most important, the Raiders haven't played a game in ten days. Wright State is favored here for a reason but look for them to lean heavily on their defense as their shots are likely to be off the mark after a long layoff of 10 days without a game. Illinois-Chicago has allowed just 64 points per game in its last 4 contests. The Flames, on the other end of the floor, were held to just 58 points the last time they faced Wright State. The Raiders have averaged 67 points per game their last 3 games against UIC. The total is simply over-priced here given the situation. I know Wright State has some impressive recent numbers on the offensive end but I am looking for another under here as the under cashes for the 4th time in the last 5 meetings between these Horizon League foes. The under is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times that the Raiders have entered a game after 5 or more off days between games. 10* UNDER the total in Wright State |
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03-09-20 | Delaware +4.5 v. Hofstra | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #865 Monday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens vs Hofstra Pride @ 6 ET - Hofstra knocked Delaware out of the CAA Tourney last season. It is payback time here for the Fightin' Blue Hens. These teams met twice in the regular season and split the series. In the game in which Delaware won, leading scorer Nate Darling scored just 13 points! That is bad news for Hofstra as he made 5 of 8 three pointers in yesterday's win over College of Charleston and scored 25 points. If he is "on" again today and the rest of the Fightin Blue Hens play like they did in the first victory over the Pride this season, this one will be an upset by at least a half dozen points in my opinion. I like the fact Darling will be playing with a ton of confidence here because he is a big-time scorer when he is hot and he'll be tough for the Pride to slow down. I know Hofstra has been hot but the Fightin' Blue Hens had played them very well for 4 straight halves before a horrible 2nd half in the most recent meeting. Prior to that Delaware had outscored the Pride by 10 points over the 4 prior halves dating back to the 2nd half of last season's match-up in the CAA Tourney. I feel we've got great underdog value here with a very determined and confident Fightin' Blue Hens team that is poised for revenge here. 10* DELAWARE |
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03-08-20 | Iowa v. Illinois OVER 148 | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #845 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Illinois Illini vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - One of the strongest handicapping angles is actually playing ON something that looks a little OFF. This is a perfect example of that. The reason it is successful is because usually something looks a little out of kilter for a good reason! In this case, you can not find a recent total posted this high (148) in an Illinois game. Yet the Illini game versus Iowa Sunday has a big total posted on it even though the first meeting only had a posted total of 140 plus it ended up staying under that total! This also was the 2nd straight under in meetings between these teams and yet this game has a higher total despite that result and also has one of the highest totals posted on an Illini game this season. Must be a huge mistake, right? Of course not. Look for this one to fly over the total. Iowa is averaging 78 points per game this season. However, the Hawkeyes have allowed 78 points or more in 4 of their last 5 road games. In fact, in those 4 road contests Iowa allowed an average of 88 points per game. Look for a shootout in Champaign tonight. 10* OVER the total in Illinois |
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03-08-20 | Ohio State +7 v. Michigan State | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #843 Sunday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) @ Michigan State Spartans @ 4:30 ET - Both teams are red hot. Give me the points in a spot like this! The Buckeyes have won 9 of their last 11 games and are playing this game with revenge. The Spartans have won each of the last 3 meetings including knocking Ohio State out of the Big Ten tourney last spring. Michigan State does enter this game having won 4 straight. However, this was preceded by a tough 1-4 stretch for the Spartans. As for the Buckeyes, they started the season 11-1 and then hit one rough patch mid-season but are now wrapping up the regular season on a 9-2 run. Ohio State has been a streaky team this season as you can see and I look for that to continue here and am happy to have the 7 points on my side in this one. Look for it to be tough for Michigan State to pull away in this one. The Spartans have had struggles in tight late-game situations this season just like the collapse at home against Maryland three weeks ago. Michigan State is off back to back covers but this was preceded by a 1-6 ATS stretch and they are over-valued here by the betting markets. Upset alert here and, if the Buckeyes do fall short, I expect it to be by only a bucket or two. 10* OHIO STATE |
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03-08-20 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 225.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Pacific Div Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - The first two games between these foes this season went under the total but one was way back in October when the season was first getting going and the other was on Christmas Day. That being said, this situation is much different as both teams come into this game rolling red hot and I fully expect plenty of points in quite the showdown between these two rivals. Yes the rivalry is real now that LeBron James is with the Lakers and Kawhi Leonard is with the Clippers. This battle likely goes down to the wire but with plenty of points along the way. The Lakers enter this game having scored 111 points or more in 14 of their past 15 games (no OT points included). The Lakers had one ugly game (at Memphis) during this stretch but they averaged 119.2 points in the other 14 games! The Clippers enter this game having averaged 120.5 points per game during their current 6-game winning streak. This game getting to 240 is certainly not out of the realm of possibility given those numbers and I expect 230 at a minimum. Both teams stay hot in this one. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles |
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03-08-20 | Pelicans v. Wolves +7 | Top | 120-107 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #506 Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 3:35 ET - Of course many are backing the Pelicans here as they have revenge against the Timberwolves from the recent upset loss in New Orleans. That is why this line has risen from a 5.5 to a 7 as of early Sunday morning. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the move. Minnesota is playing without pressure and looking to play the role of spoiler. The Wolves know they aren't going to the playoffs but if they can help further diminish an opponents chances they'll gladly do it. It is the Pelicans feeling all the pressure here and they had lost 3 straight games prior to beating the Heat on Friday. That said, I like the value here with the big home dog as Minnesota is hungry to redeem themselves following an embarrassing loss by 14 points against Orlando on Friday. That game followed back to back wins for the Timberwolves and they had been playing more competitive too with wins in 2 of their last 3 road games. So with this game at home and off a loss where they didn't show up at all on the defensive end, the Wolves come up with a much better effort in hopes of continuing to further spoil the New Orleans fading playoff hopes. If Minny does fall short here I expect it to be by only a bucket or two. In other words, great line value here for the home dog. 10* MINNESOTA |
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03-07-20 | Jazz v. Pistons +8 | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #566 Saturday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - This one is all about the situational value. The Jazz are off hard-fought win at Boston last night where they held the Celtics to just 94 points. Utah is 8-9 SU in their last 17 games and 5 of those 8 wins have been by 8 or less points. In fact 4 of them were by 5 or less points. Ton of value with scrappy Detroit as a home dog. The Pistons, unlike the Jazz, are rested here as they have been off since Wednesday. 6 of Detroit's last 9 losses have been by 7 or less points. With the rest edge and the situational edge, the home dog value here with the Pistons is far too much to pass up. They also have a 3-game road trip on deck so they want to make the most of this opportunity on their home floor. 10* DETROIT |
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03-07-20 | Seton Hall v. Creighton OVER 151.5 | Top | 60-77 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #635 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Blue Jays vs Seton Hall Pirates @ 2:30 ET - This is a big game with the regular season Big East title on the line. Pirates, with a win, take it. Blue Jays, with a win, get a share of it with the Pirates (and also Villanova if they beat Georgetown earlier). That said, one might expect some extra defensive intensity here but truly neither one of these teams has been defined by defense. Creighton, particularly at home, is known for piling up points and firing up threes! The Blue Jays are averaging 83.5 points per game game at home this season. They are a 3.5 point favorite in this game. Logically this game could be expected to surpass the 160 mark given those numbers. The first meeting between these teams this season did go over the total. That first match-up totaled 167 points and that was even with the teams combining to make just 15 of 52 three pointers for a poor combined 29% mark from the beyond the arc. Entering this game, the over is 5-2 in the Blue Jays last 7 games and 5-1 in the Pirates last 6 games. Look for the high-scoring trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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03-07-20 | Villanova -7.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach NCAAB Rotation #601 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) @ Georgetown Hoyas @ Noon ET - Huge coaching edge for the Wildcats here with Jay Wright over Georgetown's Patrick Ewing. However, the Hoyas had a rare "step up" game the last time Villanova visited DC and Georgetown won by a dozen points. Note that Hoyas wins in this series have been quite rare of late (Villanova beat them at home earlier this season) and now it is payback time for the Wildcats on this floor. As noted above, the Cats beat them in Philly earlier this season but the loss on this floor last season ended a streak of 9 straight wins for Nova in this series. When a team that has dominated a series like this loses on that opponent's floor they don't forget it about the very next time they visit. Villanova remembers the last time they stepped on this floor they were a ranked team that got upset by these Hoyas. They absolutely don't want a repeat of that here in what is their first trip to Georgetown since that meeting. Situations don't get much better than this. The Wildcats have road payback on their minds and they also are motivated by still having a shot at the regular season title for the Big East. With a win here and a Seton Hall loss at Creighton, the Wildcats would share the Big East title with the Bluejays and Pirates. Adding to the value here is that both Mac MacClung and Amer Yurtseven are listed as doubtful in this game. MacClung is Georgetown's leading scorer and Yurtseven is also a key player. I really don't expect the Hoyas to "force the issue" with those two guys as the smarter move would be to rest them in hopes of a return for the Big East tournament. That said, the Wildcats offer a lot of value here in a game which, though they on the road, they can still easily win by double digits. This game has road payback, motivation, health, coaching, all in favor of a road team that is favored by single digits! I'll take it! The Hoyas have lost 5 straight games and the only two closer losses were by 3 versus Xavier and 6 at DePaul. Villanova has won 6 of 7 and just won at Xavier by 9 and at DePaul by 20. So compare how those teams have performed recently against the same opponents. Yes, big difference between the level of these two programs and all the right ingredients are there to step up LARGE with this one. 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-06-20 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 233.5 | Top | 132-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Orlando Magic @ 8:05 ET - Revenge game for the Wolves as they lost at Orlando last week so they won't take their foot off the gas here and they do love to run and gun. That match-up last week totaled 261 points and continued the over trending in this series. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between Minnesota and the Magic. Also, Orlando enters this game on an incredible streak with their totals. The over is now 9-0 in their last 9 games. As for the Wolves, they have also been trending the same direction. Prior to their most recent game, a win versus Chicago staying under the total, the over was on a 9-2 run in their 11 preceding games. Night in and night out, both of these teams are constantly getting involved in high-scoring games. I see no reason not to expect more of the same here! Yes the total is a big one here but the over is 8-1 this season in Magic games with a posted total of 220 or more points. The over is 7-2 this season in Timberwolves games against teams from the Southeast Division. Look for another one high-scoring shootout here! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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03-06-20 | Southern Illinois v. Bradley OVER 124.5 | Top | 59-64 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Tourney Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #865 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Bradley Braves vs Southern Illinois Salukis @ 3:35 ET - This total is priced as if Southern Illinois is going to dictate the tempo of that game and I don't see it that way. The Salukis have lost 5 of their last 6 games. The Braves have won 20 games on the season and also enter this game having won 5 of 6 games before a season-ending loss by a single point against Loyola. Two of Bradley's recent games did go to overtime but even with removing the OT points from the equation, those games totaled more than this total. One was 72-all at the end of regulation and the other was knotted at 67 at the end of regulation. So let's take a closer look at recent Bradley scores. The Braves last 8 games have all totaled 127 points or more. Given today's low total posted on this game, that would be an 8-0 run to the over. Bradley has allowed 69.4 points per game in those 8 games. The Braves have scored an average of 70.4 points per game their last 7 games. That said, even though the Salukis have a tendency toward lower scoring games, I don't see them pulling down the better team's numbers that much in this game. Bradley will dictate the flow and is a confident group of scorers with the way they have been playing in recent weeks. As for Southern Illinois, they have allowed an average of 72.4 points per game their last 5 games. Before an ugly loss at Missouri State in their regular season finale, the Salukis had scored 67 points or more in 3 of 4 games. Look for this game to get into the 130s. 10* OVER the total in Bradley (game played in St Louis - MVC Tourney) |
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03-05-20 | Clippers +1 v. Rockets | Top | 120-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #537 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Clippers have won 5 straight games. They had one "slip up" in the streak where they allowed 130 points to a wounded Sixers team. Other than that, the Clips allowed an average of only 96.5 points per game in the other 4 victories. The Rockets truly can only dream of defensive efforts like that. Houston has allowed 120.5 points per game in their last 17 games and that does not include the OT points allowed in their recent win at Boston. The Rockets will face a bound and determined Clippers team here as Houston has taken 2 of the 3 meetings this season including the most recent one at Los Angeles. It is payback time here. The road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings and that trend continues here as the Clips take their winning streak to 6 games with a big effort on both ends of the floor in this one. 10* LA CLIPPERS |
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03-05-20 | Houston v. Connecticut OVER 132.5 | Top | 71-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #665 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Connecticut Huskies vs Houston Cougars @ 7 ET - The Huskies are seeking big-time revenge here. Not only did they lose a tight one at Houston in January, Connecticut also got thoroughly embarrassed in an absolute bloodbath loss (by 39 points) in the AAC Tournament last March. The Huskies may or may not get their revenge here but one thing is for certain...UConn does not want this game to turn into a low-scoring grinder. The Huskies enter this game having won 3 straight games and 7 of their last 10. They do it with offense as Connecticut is 9-2 to the over their last 11 games. Not including overtime, the Huskies have scored 67 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Keep in mind, Houston is favored in this game. In other words we should see at least mid-130s and that is at a bare minimum given the above. That said, I look for this game to get well into the 140s. Houston has averaged 75 points per game in their last 4 meetings with the Huskies. Also, the Cougars enter this game having averaged 69 points per game (not including OT) their last 7 games. It is quite logical that both teams get into the 70 range here as, to reiterate, the Huskies make sure this game plays at a little faster pace if they're going to have a chance to get their revenge here. Look for UConn to continue their recent high-scoring surge. 10* OVER the total in Connecticut |
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03-05-20 | Illinois v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #664 Thursday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Illinois Illini @ 7 ET - Yes the Illini have been hot but they faced some weak competition too. Now Illinois faces a real test and Ohio State is well aware that they can play the role of spoiler here in terms of running the Big Ten regular season title hopes of the Illini. The Buckeyes don't even need that extra motivation either. Why? Because Ohio State lost outright at home to Illinois as nearly a double digit favorite in the teams most recent meeting which was last February. Finally the Buckeyes get their shot at payback here. Not only was that upset unlikely, note that another upset here is just as unlikely. Ohio State is 13-2 SU at home while Illinois is just 6-6 SU on the road. That said, I'll lay the half dozen points here with the Buckeyes. Two of the last 3 wins for the Illini came against Northwestern and Nebraska. The Wildcats and Cornhuskers are a combined 4-33 in Big Ten games this season. Give Illinois credit for recent wins versus Indiana and Penn State but the win over the Hoosiers came at home while the win over the Nittany Lions was a case of catching a flat opponent at the right time. The Buckeyes, most definitely, will not be flat here. Payback time here. 10* OHIO STATE |
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03-04-20 | Villanova +4.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #781 Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 8:30 ET - The Wildcats are off a loss but very well could have been caught looking ahead to this game as the Pirates handed Villanova a rare home loss in their earlier meeting this season. Ironically, Seton Hall also has a revenge game on deck as their Big East regular season finale is at Creighton and the Blue Jays handed them a rare home loss. In my eyes the set up here is ideal for a road upset and I'll gladly grab the points with Nova. The Cats are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 road games and the lone loss came by just 3 points at Butler. The Pirates have covered just ONCE in their past SIX home games! Seton Hall is the higher ranked team in this match-up and they are at home but Villanova comes into this game fighting mad and playing with home loss revenge. Look for the Wildcats to send the Pirates to their 3rd SU home loss in their last 5 games as a host but I am grabbing the points as added insurance in this one. The Cats did knock the Pirates out of the Big East tourney last year but Nova has the home revenge here from this season plus also lost their visit to Seton Hall last season. It is payback time here and I like backing the Wildcats off a loss in which they scored only 54 points! 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-04-20 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 222 | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks won't take their foot off the gas in this one. They are at home off an ugly road loss. Also, Milwaukee lost their most recent match-up with the rival Pacers at Indiana. We're getting some line value with this total because the Bucks are off back to back low-scoring efforts on the road. They are a different team when they are on their home floor! Milwaukee has scored an average of 125 points per game in its last 11 home games. The spread on this game is currently -11 so if the odds makers are right about the line and the Bucks hit their recent scoring average, you have this game total pushing 240. Of course we don't need that number to win but you get my point. I am aware of Victor Oladipo possibly not playing tonight but he has played in a total of only 10 games this season anyway. The Pacers, even without Oladipo, would still score a ton of points here as the Bucks are going to play an uptempo game here. Milwaukee will look like they have been shot out of a cannon throughout this game. As for Indiana, they are off back to back overs and the over is now 11-5 in their last 16 road games. That trend continues here. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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03-04-20 | Celtics v. Cavs +1.5 | Top | 112-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #518 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers are off 3 consecutive losses but come into this game rested and expected to be much healthier for this game than they were against the Jazz on Monday. While Cleveland is rested and getting healthier, the Celtics are banged up and in a tough back to back situation. Boston blew a huge 4th quarter lead at home against Brooklyn last night and then lost in OT. That is a very deflating loss and Kemba Walker did play last night but won't make this trip to Cleveland. Also, the Celtics Marcus Smart might be facing a suspension after getting into it with the officials! Boston is expected to be without Jayson Tatum tonight too plus both Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward seemed to be less than 100% as they were dealing with nagging injuries as last night's game got away from the Celtics. With the Cavs getting healthier and having won 4 of 5 before dropping 3 in a row, this is the perfect spot for them to get back on track on their home floor. 10* CLEVELAND |
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03-04-20 | San Jose State v. New Mexico OVER 155.5 | Top | 66-79 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Tourney Top Total - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #815 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs San Jose State Spartans in MWC Tourney in Vegas @ 5:30 ET - This total may seem big but it is truly justified. The Spartans simply do not play defense and this is even more true when traveling. When away from home, San Jose State has allowed an average of 90.3 points per game in their 9 games! The Lobos are about a 10 point favorite here. So if the Spartans allow their recent typical average and the odds makers are a correct about the spread here than you're looking at a 90-80 type game which crushes the total. The fact is New Mexico loves to play a run and gun style with very little focus on defense and they'll be able to that here against the Spartans. The last time San Jose State and New Mexico met the Lobos scored 86 points. In the first meeting this season the Spartans won 88 to 85. You can see why I am expecting plenty of points here. I don't expect San Jose State to be able to stop the Lobos but I also don't expect them to go down without a fight in tourney action. In other words, they should indeed do enough running and gunning of their own to hang within about 10 points here and that means this one flies over the total. New Mexico's most recent road loss was a tight low-scoring grinder but those are unusual for sure. In their 7 preceding road games in 2020, the Lobos allowed an average of 89.4 points per game. This one gets crazy. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico (game played in Vegas) |
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03-03-20 | Spurs v. Hornets OVER 214 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are off a home loss to the Pacers last night that flew over the total. The over is now 8-2 in San Antonio's last 10 games. We're getting some line value here because this total has moved lower as a result of some recent scoring struggles for Charlotte. The Hornets have been held under 100 points in 4 of their last 5 games. However, off an ugly 85-point showing at home against the Bucks, look for Charlotte to bounce back strong here against a Spurs team that may not be at its best defensively in the 2nd game of a back to back. In fact, San Antonio is 24-10 to the over, including 6-1 to the over this season, when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. A lot of time defensive intensity is not as strong in non-conference games and the over is 5-2 in Hornets games against Southwest Division opponents. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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03-03-20 | Michigan State -1 v. Penn State | Top | 79-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #621 Tuesday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (-) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - The road team has covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. That includes the Nittany Lions winning at Michigan State early last month. That means it is revenge time for the Spartans and the timing is perfect. While Penn State has lost 3 of 4 games SU and is on an 0-4 ATS run, Michigan State enters this game having won 3 in a row SU. The line on this game is as low as a -1 early this morning and I am taking advantage of grabbing the revenge-minded Spartans in this one. Michigan State was sloppy with the ball in the first meeting and lost the game by 5 points largely due to losing the turnover battle 15-9. I like what I have seen from the Spartans over the past two weeks while the Nittany Lions are showing signs of wilting under the late season pressure. Of course we get line value here because this game is at State College where Penn State has been so strong this season. The fact is that the Nittany Lions last two home games saw them lose outright to Illinois and barely sneak out a 1-point win over Rutgers. Now PSU faces a much tougher challenge here and I look for the Spartans to turn this one into a road rout. 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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03-03-20 | Cleveland State v. Oakland OVER 130.5 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Tourney Top Total - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #655 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Cleveland State Vikings @ 7 ET - The Vikings have only had two overtime games this season. The impact of those two OT periods in a 31-game season is minimal. That said, I feel this total is far too low because Oakland likes to play more uptempo than the Vikings do and I expect them to control the tempo in this one since this game is on their home floor. The Vikings average scoring 64.3 points per game this season but allow 71.5 points per game. Cleveland State, not including OT, scored at least 67 points in 3 of their last 4 road games. That included scoring 74 here at Oakland in a game that totaled 153 points. As for the Grizzlies, they have had 3 overtime games this season. However, just looking at points scored in regulation time, Oakland has allowed 71.3 points per game their last 8 games. The Golden Grizzlies have averaged, not including OT points, 74.2 points per game their last 5 home games. I see this game getting into the 140s or at least right around 140 and yet we've got a total right around a 130 which means solid value being offered here. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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03-02-20 | Jazz v. Cavs +8.5 | Top | 126-113 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #582 Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers are off consecutive losses but it was a back to back situation. Cleveland was competitive in both games and continues to play much better overall. The back to back losses were preceded by winning 4 of 5 games including defeating both the Heat and the 76ers. Since they added Andre Drummond, the Cavs are a different team. Now, after a day off following the consecutive defeats plus the fact they are on their home floor, the Cavaliers will give the Jazz all they can handle in this one. The line opened up at a 7.5 but has risen to an 8.5 and this is giving us great line value with the home dog. The Jazz are off a win but that was preceded by 4 straight losses. Also, all those games were at home where Utah is known for being a stronger team. In other words, now that the Jazz are taking to the road the recent slump is likely to continue. I am not saying Utah loses this game outright (although there is a decent chance of that) but I am saying that Cleveland is going to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. The markets haven't adjusted properly yet to the fact that the Cavaliers are playing better basketball of late and I am going to fade a large road favorite here that has lost 4 of its last 5 games. 10* CLEVELAND |
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03-02-20 | NC State v. Duke OVER 151 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #861 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack @ 7 ET - Duke is off back to back losses including a 52-50 grinder against Virginia. Now they get a chance to really open things up again. After being held to just 50 points in their most recent game, I have no doubt the Blue Devils are going to run and gun against a willing participant, NC State. The Wolfpack have gone 5-2 to the over their last 7 games. Duke is 12-4 to the over in home games this season. The Blue Devils also have revenge in this one as they lost at NC State by a count of 88-66 two weeks ago. Duke shot an uncharacteristic 4 of 17 from beyond the arc and 10 of 22 at the charity stripe! Those numbers won't happen again here. The Blue Devils are averaging 84.2 points per game at home this season. The Wolfpack have scored 77 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games. The set up here is perfect for a high-scoring match-up. Also, note that the over is a perfect 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Duke |
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03-01-20 | Pistons +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #569 Sunday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Sacramento Kings @ 6:05 ET - The Pistons will build off Friday's win at Phoenix. While it is true that Detroit is only 3-8 SU their last 11 games, 4 of their last 7 losses have come by 7 or less points. The Kings are over-valued here. Sacramento is 4-3 SU in their last 7 games but 2 of the 4 wins came by 4 or less points. Only 1 of those 4 wins came by a double digit margin and I look for the Pistons to be in this one all the way. The Kings just got back home from a 4-game road trip that wrapped up in Memphis on Friday. The first game back home after a lengthy road trip is often the toughest and the odds makers opened this game up at a 6.5 for a reason. In typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the line value here on the other side of the line move. The Kings are 2-6 ATS (and 1-7 SU) when off a road win by 3 or less points. After sneaking by the Grizzlies by 3 points on the road Friday, Sacramento falls flat here. 10* DETROIT |
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03-01-20 | Michigan v. Ohio State OVER 136.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #831 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan Wolverines @ 4 ET - I am aware there are a few injury situations in this game but I feel we have great value here with this total and I don't expect Eli Brooks to play for the Wolverines while the Buckeyes only really significant absence is Kyle Young but others will step up in his place at home. In terms of the value with this low total here, the Wolverines are 7-2 their last 9 games and have averaged scoring 73 points per game during this stretch. They are about a 4 point dog in this one. Last time I checked a 77-73 final totals 150 points. In other words, if Michigan hits their recent average and the odds makers are right about the spread here, we have ourselves an easy winner. The Buckeyes have won 4 of their last 5 games and have averaged 74 points per game during this stretch. Off an easy win versus a bad Nebraska team, Ohio State could be in for a surprise here as the Wolverines are playing with a lot of a confidence and scoring very well of late. Also, Michigan has revenge from a low-scoring home loss to the Buckeyes early last month. After sub-par shooting in that meeting, watch things open up in a big way today and we'll see plenty of scoring in this one. 10* OVER the total in Ohio State |
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03-01-20 | 76ers v. Clippers OVER 218 | Top | 130-136 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Daytime TV Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #565 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 3:35 ET - The Sixers are without both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons but don't look for the Clippers to show them any mercy. That said, Los Angeles is averaging 117.5 points per game at home this season and opened up as a 12.5 point favorite here. A 118-106 type game seems perfectly logical here given those numbers and yet this total is about a half dozen points below that. Also note that the Clips have averaged 123.8 points per game in their last 5 wins. The Sixers have allowed 119.8 points per game in their last 6 losses. This game could easily approach the 230 mark in total points as the Clippers won't hold back. LA is playing their final home game before a 2-game road trip and they won't be back on their home floor until next Sunday. The Clippers will make the most of the opportunity and run and gun here. The Sixers, though wounded, do have fresh legs from two off days preceding this game and we'll see plenty of points here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-01-20 | Xavier v. Georgetown | Top | 66-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
Afternoon TV Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #821 Sunday 10* Top Play Xavier Musketeers (-) @ Georgetown Hoyas @ 2 ET - The Musketeers are the much better team. Even though Naji Marshall is on the injury report he has been upgraded to probable. Conversely, the Hoyas Omar Yurtseven and Mac MacClung are both listed as questionable for this one. Keep in mind, Georgetown has lost 3 straight games and also is just 1-4 SU in its last 5 home games. Xavier brings momentum into this game after a home win versus DePaul in their most recent game. The Musketeers are now 5-2 SU (and 6-1 ATS) their last 7 games and clearly this is a case of two teams heading opposite directions as the regular season winds down. Xavier has dominated this series but did lose their last visit to Georgetown. Look for the Musketeers to make up for that here as they continue their surge and send the Hoyas to a 4th straight loss. The road team also holds the coaching edge in this match-up and that is not a factor to overlook especially in the case of a game with a line near pick'em. 10* XAVIER |
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02-29-20 | Nets v. Heat OVER 222.5 | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Total opened up at a 225.5 and has dropped to a 222.5 as of very early game day morning. I understand this is a back to back spot but both teams were involved in high-scoring games yesterday that flew over the total and I expect more of the same today. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Miami's last 6 games. Heat home games are on a perfect 4-0 run to the over. The Nets have scored an average of 113 points per game their last 4 games. Brooklyn is a 7 point dog here. A game ending up in the 120-113 range here would not be shocking in any way whatsoever. That said, we have got a total that is now about 10 points below where it could easily land in my opinion. I'll grab the big value and look for the high-scoring trending to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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02-29-20 | UNLV v. San Jose State +10 | Top | 92-69 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
MWC Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #700 Saturday 10* Top Play San Jose State Spartans (+) vs UNLV Rebels @ 5 ET - Perfect set up here. Home finale for San Jose State to wrap up another disappointing season. UNLV enters this road game having won 4 straight games. However, the key here is where this game is being played. The Spartans are much more competitive on their home floor than on the road. San Jose State has had only 4 home games since mid-January. Though only 1-3 SU in those 4 games, 2 of the 3 losses came by 6 or less points. Don't be surprised when San Jose State keeps this game much closer than many are expecting and they could even get the outright upset. The Rebels have won 4 straight games but only one (San Diego State) was truly shocking. The other 3 games all had tight low lines and could have gone either way. Now, on the road for this one and considering that the Rebels are just 4-8 SU on the road this season, there is really no justification for UNLV being a double digit favorite in this one. The line opened up at an 8.5 and moved to as high as a 10 and I am stepping in on the other side of the move and going with the "ugly home dog" theory in this one. Especially being the last game of the regular season, look for the Spartans to go all out here and keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 10* SAN JOSE STATE |
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02-29-20 | Seton Hall v. Marquette OVER 148 | Top | 88-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #647 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Marquette Golden Eagles vs Seton Hall Pirates @ 2:30 ET - The odds makers are sharp. That said, the first game between these teams easily stayed under the total and yet this total opened up at a higher number than the first meeting! Why? Well, for one thing these teams had a ridiculous 2nd half in the first meeting. They had combined for 77 points at halftime but then the Golden Eagles scored only 18 points in the 2nd half of the game. That happened at Seton Hall and I guarantee that won't happen with Marquette as the host in the rematch. Home in Milwaukee for this one, look for the Eagles to score plenty but their weakness is they won't be able to stop Seton Hall. The Pirates have averaged 74 points per game in their last 3 meetings with Marquette. Also, Seton Hall enters this game scoring an average of 77 points per game their last 4 games. The Golden Eagles have scored an average of 80 points per game on their home floor this season. Both teams enter off a win in which they scored more than 80 points and that confidence spills right into this game and both teams continue their high-scoring ways. 10* OVER the total in Marquette |
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02-28-20 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 215 | Top | 99-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors are off a home loss but it is because they faced the best team in the NBA, Milwaukee. Prior to that low-scoring loss to the Bucks, Toronto had scored an average of 125.6 points per game in their 7 preceding home games. The point spread in this game is 14 and a 125-111 type game certainly is not out of the question and that crushes this total and goes over by 20 points. I know Charlotte occasionally has some ugly games but the Hornets do have a good history of piling up points when facing the Raptors. That is why the over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings. Also, Charlotte enters this game off a win that went over the total. When the Hornets are off a win and playing on the road, they have scored an average of 108.3 points per game the last 3 times. That would translate to a 122-108 game here if the spread is correct at 14 points. Either way, you can see why I am liking the over here given the situation. The fact is the Raptors won't take their foot off the gas considering they are off a loss. Toronto will force Charlotte into a fast-paced game and the Hornets have allowed 117.3 points per game in their last 8 losses. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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02-28-20 | Wolves v. Magic -7.5 | Top | 125-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #528 Friday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - This line opened up at a -9 but has dropped to a -7.5 as of early Friday morning. Just because the Timberwolves are off a big upset win at Miami Tuesday does not mean they are deserving of this type of respect. The Wolves entered that game having lost 18 of 19 games! That included Minnesota having lost 5 straight games prior to beating the Heat and 4 of those 5 losses came by a double digit margin. Orlando is hanging onto the #8 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race and the Magic have been rejuvenated by winning 4 of their past 5 games. Orlando is 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games versus the T-wolves. Also, the Magic have covered 7 of the last 10 meetings. We're getting some extra value here because of Minnesota being off a rare win. This one has home blowout written all over it as I look for the home team to D up strong in this one and defense is something the Wolves certainly don't play much of. That will be the difference in this game. 10* ORLANDO |
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02-28-20 | Dartmouth v. Cornell OVER 124 | Top | 82-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Ivy Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #861 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cornell Big Red vs Dartmouth Big Green @ 7 ET - This total has been pushed too low. The Big Red could get Jordan Jones and/or Jimmy Boeheim back tonight. But, either way, Cornell has averaged scoring 61.5 points (in regulation time) in the two games since Boeheim got hurt. Also, this is a revenge game from the ugly 75-53 loss at Dartmouth two weeks ago which was the game in which Boeheim got hurt early. This actually increases the likelihood that he'll be back tonight to be part of the revenge attack. But again, either way, I like the over plenty in this one. The total has simply been pushed too low by over-reaction to the fact the Big Red allowed just 45 points in their most recent game. Keep in mind, Cornell had allowed 74.4 points per game in regulation time of their 7 games that preceded the low-scoring win versus Brown. Also, the Big Green enter this game having scored an average of 67 points per game in going 3-1 their last 4 contests. The issue for Dartmouth on the road has been defense. The Big Green have lost 7 straight road games and have allowed an average of 68 points per game in those 7 defeats. You can see, per the above, why I am expecting this game to get into the mid-130s and yet we're dealing with a total in the mid-120s. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Cornell |
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02-28-20 | Kent State +1.5 v. Ohio | Top | 69-76 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #875 Friday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 6:30 ET - The Golden Flashes are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS the last two times they have been a road dog. However, their two most recent road games saw them first lose a tight one as a small favorite and then get blasted by 21 points as a small favorite at Eastern Michigan. After that embarrassing losses, the Golden Flashes have had their next road game circled blood red as a chance to redeem themselves. Riding the momentum of a home win versus Miami-Ohio, Kent State now will continue their series dominance against the Bobcats. The Golden Flashes are 6-1 SU in their last 7 meetings with Ohio University. The Bobcats are off a big home win versus Buffalo but are 1-4 SU the last 5 times they have entered a game off a SU win. The win for Ohio U over Buffalo was the first time this season that they have beaten a team that currently has a winning record in MAC games. Now the Bobcats face a Kent team that already owns wins over Buffalo and Akron this season. The fact is that the Golden Flashes are the better team and can rise to the occasion in a tough situation. That said, I have no hesitation grabbing them on the road here against an Ohio University team that has had its share of struggles on its home floor. 10* KENT STATE |
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02-27-20 | Knicks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #520 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the injury situation for the Sixers. I faded them last night with Cleveland partially because Ben Simmons was out but also because the Cavaliers have been hot since they made some roster moves. The 76ers then proceeded to lose Joel Embiid to injury in that game. So they are really hurting now but they are also back home where they are 27-2 this season. Also, instead of facing a surging Cavs team they are facing a slumping New York team. The Knicks have lost 5 straight games and, just like Philly, New York is in the 2nd night of a back to back here. The Knicks last 6 losses have come by an average margin of 11.5 points per game and I am projecting a double digit loss here for New York. The 76ers last 7 wins have all come by 7 or more points and this line has plummeted to as low as a -6 as of early this morning after opening up at -8 this morning after the injury news was ALREADY out about Embiid. I feel we're getting solid value with a Sixers team that is angry off a loss and will have other players step up at home in this one to make up for the injury absences. Philly has 2 days off after this game and then will be on a West Coast road trip. The 76ers aren't going to be denied tonight at home given this situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-27-20 | Indiana v. Purdue OVER 128.5 | Top | 49-57 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #615 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 7 ET - These teams have played some ugly games in recent meetings but that has led to this total being kept to low by the betting markets. There are plenty of signs pointing to this game getting well into the 130s and yet this total has dipped into the 120s in early market activity. The Boilermakers are on a 4-game losing streak but 2 of those defeats came on the road. Purdue has continued to score well in home games. Prior to being held to 63 points at home against Michigan, the Boilermakers averaged scoring 76.6 points per game in their 5 preceding home games. Speaking of hot scoring, Indiana is "feeling it" right now. The Hoosiers have won 3 of their last 4 games and scored an average of 75 points in those 3 wins. Indiana has allowed an average of 70.6 points per game their last 8 games. The Boilermakers have allowed an average of 74 points per game their last 4 games. Given all of the above, you can see why this game getting into the 140s would certainly not be a total shock. That is why I certainly expect this game to get well into the 130s and that makes this one a very strong play given the line value we're getting here. 10* OVER the total in Purdue |
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02-27-20 | Delaware +4 v. College of Charleston | Top | 71-80 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #601 Thursday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin Blue Hens (+) @ College of Charleston Cougars @ 6 ET - The Cougars have won 8 straight meetings between these teams. The College of Charleston is also at home for this game. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on Delaware in this one! But certainly it is not without reason. The Fightin Blue Hens are the better team this season and they have plenty of motivation here. Delaware blew a 6 point home lead against the Cougars in late December for their 8th straight loss in this series. The key to the value in the rematch is that the College of Charleston has lost 4 straight games both SU and ATS. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover 9 of their last 13 games. They're simply not playing well and not faring well at the betting window either. As for Delaware, they do enter this game off a loss but the Fightin Blue Hens had won 8 of 9 SU and 6 of 8 ATS prior to the home loss to Hofstra. Off that ugly loss by a double digit margin and having not forgotten their ugly loss by a double digit margin at home against the Cougars, look for the Hens to roll on the road in this one! The last 3 times when the Fightin Blue Hens were off an ATS loss they have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in their next game. Look for them to again thrive in that role in this one. 10* DELAWARE |
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02-26-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +7.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Tuesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers made some recent roster moves and it is already paying dividends. Though they are building for the future, there is a renewed enthusiasm in Cleveland and it is translating to much better play on the floor. The Cavs have won 3 of their last 4 games both SU and ATS. The Cavaliers have struggled against the 76ers this season and the most recent loss is one a team doesn't forget. Despite having 6 more shot attempts from the field, Cleveland lost by 47 points in their most recent game against the Sixers! That was in Philadelphia and now the 76ers come to Cleveland and they'll be without Ben Simmons. That is a big loss for them and this is a Philly team that is an ugly 9-20 SU and ATS in road games this season. The Cavaliers have won their last two home games and that including defeating a solid Miami team Monday. Don't be surprised if the Cavs come up with another home dog upset here but I am grabbing the points for added insurance. 10* CLEVELAND |
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02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State -6 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #812 Wednesday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (-) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET - The set up here is perfect. The Nittany Lions are off back to back losses. They shot the ball poorly from long-range in a home upset loss to Illinois. That then carried over to a road loss at Indiana. Now, back at home, Penn State gets rolling again from beyond the arc. Keep in mind, prior to back to back losses, the Lions had won 8 straight games and averaged 78 points per game! Adding to the value here of the Nittany Lions laying about a half dozen points, Penn State lost at Rutgers by double digits earlier this season. This is a revenge game and now the Lions catch the Scarlet Knights having lost 5 of 7. One of those two Rutgers wins came in OT against a bad Northwestern team. In other words, the Knights aren't playing very well right now and haven't been for about 3 weeks! Look for the Nittany Lions to get payback in a big way in this one. The Scarlet Knights have lost 5 straight road games SU and also are just 1-4 ATS their last 5 games overall. Penn State has only failed to cover twice in their last 10 games. The Nittany Lions are also 17-2 SU in their last 19 home games! Only 1 of their 8 wins in the recent streak came by less than 6 points and that was a 5 point win. In other words, all signs pointing to a home win and cover in this one. 10* PENN STATE |
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02-26-20 | St. John's v. Villanova OVER 146.5 | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #781 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Villanova Wildcats vs St John's Red Storm @ 6:30 ET - The Wildcats are off a low-scoring grinder win over Xavier on Saturday. You saw how the Musketeers reacted in their next game as their match-up with DePaul last night had 80 points by half-time and went over the total rather easily. I look for a similar situation here with Villanova. We have a higher total to deal with than last night's Xavier game but that's because St John's is known for getting involved in high-scoring games. The Red Storm have allowed 81 points per game their last 4 road games. The Red Storm are off an ugly loss at Seton Hall Sunday but had scored an average of 77 points per game their 4 prior games this month. As for the Wildcats, they are off the aforementioned low-scoring win over the Musketeers, but that extended their winning streak to 4 games and they averaged scoring 80 points per game in their 3 prior wins. Also, Villanova has allowed 72 points per game in their last 3 home games. The Cats will run and gun here with the Red Storm. 10* OVER the total in Villanova |
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02-25-20 | Bucks v. Raptors | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #577 Tuesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - This line has gone from a -3 down to as low as a pick'em. I am well aware of the fact that the Bucks are in a back to back spot and their win at Washington last night came in overtime! However, no one on Milwaukee played more than 33 minutes except Middleton. That said, the Bucks are in better shape from a rest standpoint than would normally be the case in a situation like this. Also, Milwaukee is a perfect 7-0 SU this season when playing the second game of a back to back. Additionally, the Bucks are 16-0 SU this season in road games with a posted total of 230 or more. The biggest key of all for this game, in my opinion, is that this is where Milwaukee's season ended last year in May. The Bucks were ousted from the playoffs in Toronto last season. Though they got some measure of revenge with a win at home earlier this season, they still want to get revenge on the very floor where their season ended last year. In other words, a road rout likely in this one. Adding to the odds that one will occur is the fact that the Raptors are a little banged up right now. Gasol and Powell are out and McCaw is questionable for tonight's game. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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02-25-20 | TCU v. Iowa State -2 | Top | 59-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #606 Tuesday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (-) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 7 ET - Losing on your home floor is one thing. Losing by 30 points as a host is another thing! The Cyclones just got blasted at home by Texas Tech on Saturday and need to make amends for that here. Iowa State will take advantage of hosting a TCU team that is off a home win and is 0-7 SU in their last 7 road games. The Horned Frogs are also 0-7 ATS in those games! Texas Christian University has held the upper hand in recent meetings between these schools and that has led to line value here with the Cyclones as a host. Iowa State is 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they were at home and coming off an ATS loss. That means we have double perfect trends at play with the Horned Frogs in an 0-7 ATS spot and the Cyclones in a 6-0 ATS spot. Make it a triple perfect spot actually as TCU is also 0-3 ATS the last 3 times they have entered a game off a SU win. It has been a month and a half since the Horned Frogs have won back to back games and I look for them to again fail in that situation here. The Cyclones get their revenge for all the recent losses to TCU including falling just short on the road earlier this season. The home court makes all the difference here. 10* IOWA STATE |
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02-25-20 | DePaul v. Xavier OVER 136 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #609 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Xavier Musketeers vs DePaul Blue Demons @ 7 ET - Xavier needs to bounce back strong after a low-scoring home loss to Villanova Saturday. Prior to that defeat, the Musketeers had been on a 4-1 run and they averaged 70.5 points per game in the 4 victories. On the season, Xavier is averaging 71.6 points per game at home. In other words, they'll bounce back strong here. The key to the over is that DePaul has been getting involved in plenty of high-scoring games of late. The Blue Demons have scored an average of 70.3 points per game their last 4 games. The issue for DePaul is they can't stop anyone. The Blue Demons have allowed 76 points or more in 6 of their last 8 losses. DePaul has allowed an average of 84 points per game their last 3 games. That even includes a rare win, versus Georgetown, in their most recent game. I am well aware of the under trending in this series but this one is set up perfectly for an over based on the situational aspects of this one. 10* OVER the total in Xavier |
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02-24-20 | Magic v. Nets -3 | Top | 115-113 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #566 Monday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - This is a case of two teams trending opposite directions and I expect it to continue here. Brooklyn has won 8 of its past 12 games while the Magic have lost 11 of their past 15 games. Also, the Nets have revenge from a loss at Orlando in their only prior meeting this season. That one took place last month and Brooklyn had 21 more attempts from beyond the arc in that game but shot a horrible 21% from 3-point land. That was the difference in the game as the Nets lost by a double digit margin. Much has changed since then and the Nets are playing with a lot more confidence of late. Brooklyn is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in its last 5 home games. Orlando is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 road games. Overall, the Magic are on a 3-12 ATS run their last 15 games. Lay the small number with the surging Nets in this one as Orlando's free-fall continues. 10* BROOKLYN |
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02-24-20 | Louisville +3 v. Florida State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #873 Monday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (+) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 7 ET - The Noles are ranked higher right now than the Cards plus they are at home. However, it is with good reason that this game is priced so low. The road team has revenge and has already beaten Duke on the road this season. The Cardinals lost their two most recent road games and that further strengthens the likelihood of a massive bounce back here. This team is poised for payback here at Florida State. Yes the Seminoles got the upset win at Louisville earlier this season but shot a ridiculous 55% from the field overall and 48% from three point land in that game. You know the Cardinals are going to be in lockdown mode on D against FSU after those embarrassing results in the home loss. The Seminoles are having a great season, there is no doubt about that. But I still feel strongly that the Cardinals are the better team and the revenge angle is strengthening this play. That is the only home loss that the Cards have this season. Now they face a Florida State team that hasn't lost a home game this season. You can see where I am going with this. The Cardinals have a chance at the sweetest type of revenge here and I look for them to return the favor and hand the Seminoles their only home loss of the season. 10* LOUISVILLE |
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02-23-20 | Wizards v. Bulls | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - I know the Wizards road record is ugly this season but, overall, Washington had been playing better ball before their home loss to Cleveland Friday. Keep in mind, that was a rejuvenated and strengthened Cavaliers team which the Wizards faced on Friday. Now look for the Wizards, whom had won 5 of 7 games prior to losing to the Cavs, to now take advantage of a struggling and hurting Chicago team. The Bulls lost at home to Phoenix last night. They are dealing with a lot of injury issues and now in a back to back spot plus overall Chicago was already struggling badly. The Bulls have now lost 8 straight games. Chicago has won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams so the Wizards, also still alive in the playoff race, have plenty of motivation here. Washington has lost their last two visits here. Now it is payback time. Look for the Wizards send the Bulls to their 9th straight loss. 10* WASHINGTON |
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02-23-20 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 221.5 | Top | 103-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #551 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are off a win at Utah Friday which stayed just under the total. That was preceded by a stretch in which San Antonio games recorded 5 straight overs. As for the Thunder, they are also off a victory which stayed just under the total and this was preceded by a stretch in which Oklahoma City games recorded 3 straight overs. 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams have resulted in an over. The Spurs have allowed an average of 116.6 points per game in their last 10 road games. The Thunder have allowed an average of 110 points per game in their last 10 home games. The over is 10-3 in games in which the Spurs are road underdog of 6 or less points this season. The over is 9-5 this season when the Thunder enter a game having scored 105 points or more in 5 straight games. The fact is that both teams are "feeling it" right now and will stay hot as this one turns into a high-scoring affair. These teams each scored 65 points in the 2nd half of their game two weeks ago and the up and down style featured throughout the 2nd half of that game carries right into the rematch as OKC seeks revenge for that home loss and is ready to run and gun for the full 48 minutes in this one. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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02-23-20 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #858 Saturday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) vs Maryland Terrapins @ 4 ET - Ohio State continues to show strong home/road dichotomy. The Buckeyes are a great team on their home floor but constantly struggle on the road. This game is at Columbus and unlike the recent miracle win for the Terps at Michigan State, there will be no miracles here. Give Maryland credit, they did play a good game against the Spartans. But they were down by 7 with just a couple minutes left and then ended the game on an insane 14-0 run. That is not happening here against an Ohio State team that is 13-2 SU (and 10-5 ATS) in home games this season. The Terrapins enter this game off a non-covering win versus a bad Northwestern team. Maryland has won 9 straight games and also defeated Ohio State when they hosted the Buckeyes early last month. Now it is time for payback and there there is a reason the higher ranked team is an underdog here. Don't let the line fool you. Ohio State gets revenge on their home floor and they get it in a big way. The Terrapins have won 3 straight match-ups including the most recent one at Columbus so payback is on order here. The Terps are shooting just 39.8% from the field in road games this season. The Buckeyes are shooting 48.9% from the field in home games this season. Look for that to be a difference-maker in the rematch. 10* OHIO STATE |
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02-23-20 | Penn State v. Indiana OVER 143 | Top | 60-68 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #821 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Hoosiers vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ Noon ET - The Nittany Lions had been rolling but enter Sunday off an ugly loss to Illinois. In that game Penn State scored only 56 points. This was preceded by a stretch in which PSU scored an average of 78 points per game during an 8-game winning streak. Now this total that opened up at 145 is down to a 143 and I feel we have great value with the over in this match-up. The Hoosiers have been scoring well at home but won't be able to stop an angry Nittany Lions team on the other end in this one. That means we should see plenty of points in this one. Indiana has scored an average of 76 points per game in its last 3 home games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the 150s given the above recent trending for these teams. Also, we're getting value here because the last meeting between these teams stayed well under the total but both teams had rare poor shooting nights from beyond the arc. With regards to the rematch, note that the Nittany Lions are hitting 36.3% of their threes in road games this season and the Hoosiers are knocking down 35.3% of their shots from long range in home games this season. Indiana has allowed an average of 80 points per game their last 3 games and this one has all the right ingredients to turn into a back and forth high-scoring affair. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |