Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-06-19 | Pacers +3 v. Raptors | Top | 105-121 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Sunday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - This is a tough scheduling spot for the Raptors. They are off a revenge win at Milwaukee last night and now had to travel back home to face a revenge-minded Pacers team. Not only is Indiana the more rested team, they've won 6 straight games since a 3-point loss at Toronto on December 19th. The Pacers have now lost 4 straight to the Raptors so they are amped up about this revenge opportunity Sunday. Overall it is a 13-2 SU run for Indiana and their two losses came by a total of just 4 points! Great value with the road dog in this spot. Toronto is just 3-7 ATS against Central Division teams this season and 1-4 ATS in Sunday games. Indiana is 6-2 SU and ATS against Atlantic Division teams. Also, the Pacers are a fantastic 23-9 SU and 24-8 ATS in Sunday games. Here they catch the Raptors still celebrating that huge win over the Bucks last night. 10* INDIANA |
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01-06-19 | Memphis +9 v. Houston | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #823 Sunday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) @ Houston Cougars @ 6 ET - Long-time followers know I love seeking spots like this. The Cougars are a ranked team and undefeated while the Tigers are only 9-5 on the season and on the road here catching only single digits. Many will back an undefeated team in a spot like this but there are important keys as to why the Tigers are going to be a "tough out" for the Cougars. First off, Memphis has played a tougher schedule than Houston this season. Also, a key to winning on the road when the conference schedule rolls around is having a veteran team and being battle tested. The Tigers fit the bill in both regards. They returned their top four scorers from last season and all are now seniors. Additionally there is tremendous positive energy with this program as they brought in former NBA star Penny Hardaway at head coach and brought in a new influx of playing talent this season that already has led to some key contributions from new sources for Memphis. The Tigers losses this season have included LSU, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. That is not exactly a slate of cupcakes and those experiences will serve the Tigers well in their first key conference battle of the new season. Note that Memphis is already 6-3 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Cougars do play great defense but the Tigers have the veteran skilled players to break down a defense like this. In fact, Memphis is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Houston and the lone loss came by just a single point. The Cougars are NOT shooting the ball well at ll this season and it will tough for them to build a significant margin here against a senior-laded Tigers team viewing this game as one of their BIGGEST of the season. 10* MEMPHIS |
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01-05-19 | Raptors +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The Raptors embarrassed the hell out of me at San Antonio on Thursday but sometimes in this business one can be dead wrong and that was the case with me when Toronto faced the Spurs. However, the Raptors look like a live dog in this spot. Yes I am aware of the continuing Kyle Lowry injury situation. However, the Raptors have now lost 3 straight against the Bucks, including both meetings this season, and it is absolutely payback time here. Milwaukee is in a back to back spot here and has gone 2-4 ATS in Saturday games this season. Also, the Bucks are a poor 1-5 ATS (and SU!) the last 6 times they were off a game in which they scored 130 or more points. The Raptors are 4-1 SU this season in Saturday games. Toronto is 3-1 SU when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, the Raptors are 6-3 SU when playing with revenge this season but that includes not faring well against the Bucks this season. In other words, payback time here in a big way and I like having the points in a game the Raptors are bound and determined to win and do have a rest edge. 10* TORONTO |
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01-05-19 | Kansas State +12 v. Texas Tech | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #645 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) @ Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 2 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Wildcats, already without Dean Wade, have another senior (Kamau Stokes) listed as doubtful for this game. However, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Red Raiders and a huge situational edge for Kansas State. While the Wildcats are off an embarrassing loss at Texas, the Red Raiders enter this game off a hard-fought road win at West Virginia. Also, Texas Tech has a huge game with Oklahoma on deck. In other words this is truly a sandwich game and flat spot for the Red Raiders. Additionally, the Wildcats have revenge on their mind as they were blown out by Texas Tech in both games last season. I like the talent on this Kansas State team and, right now, the Red Raiders continue to be over-valued. As a result, we can get a dozen points with the Wildcats in a game that is projected to be very low-scoring (posted total opened up in the 115 range!). With points at a premium in this one and the hungry and motivated defense ready to turn up the heat on defense, this game will be much closer than many are expecting. By the way, Texas Tech is on a 6-12 ATS run in January games. The Wildcats are a long-term 4-1 ATS in games with a posted total of 119.5 points or less. Give me the big dog in this one. 10* KANSAS STATE |
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01-04-19 | Wizards +7 v. Heat | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Friday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) @ Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - We're getting to the point in the season where you're going to see trends start to reverse. The NBA season is almost at it's mid-point and this is the time of the season where it is a good idea to take a look at teams that have under-achieved at the betting window but that are playing better of late. I especially like to look for those teams when they're facing a team that has over-achieved at the betting window and also when I can have my team as a sizable underdog. That is the case here because, as of 7:30 AM ET, the Wizards are available as high as a +7 in some big shops. Washington is a poor 13-25 ATS on the season but enters this game off back to back wins and covers and there is a different feeling in the Wizards locker room as they head into this match-up against a divisional foe. The Heat are on a ridiculous 15-4 ATS run which you know can't continue. Miami is just not that strong of a team and the absence of Goran Dragic is going to catch up with them. The Heat are 2-2 SU their last 4 games and I expect another SU loss here but, of course, am grabbing the generous points being offered. The Wizards are 5-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season while Miami is a poor 2-7 SU and ATS in divisional games on the season. Washington is already adjusting to life without John Wall plus remember they've only had Trevor Ariza for the past 8 games and he has already had games with highs of 24 in points, 9 in assists, and 8 in rebounds. He is a key contributor that will be a difference maker tonight. The Wizards are playing scrappy and hungry basketball right now and that is the kind of dog (with plenty of fight) you want on your side. 10* WASHINGTON |
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01-04-19 | SMU v. Tulane OVER 139 | Top | 74-65 | Push | 0 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulane Green Wave vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - This is the perfect set up for a high-scoring game. Though Tulane has not shot well lately, they are finally back home and that is a key here! The Green Wave have shot 49.2% from the field (including 39.2% from 3-point land) in their home games this season. However, SMU is nearly a double digit favorite here with good reason. The Mustangs are the much stronger overall team and they have revenge on their minds too. That is a big help when playing an over because SMU won't hesitate to run up the score here given the chance. Last season the Mustangs had a 7 point lead at the half but then got outscored by double digits in the second half and lost. It is payback time here for SMU but I do expect the Green Wave to also have a huge scoring night as they hang within single digits for much of this game. In terms of technical support, Tulane is 5-1 to the over in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Green Wave have gone 15-4 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more consecutive SU losses. The Mustangs are 7-3 to the over this season in games in which they are the favorite. Also, SMU is on a 14-5 run to the over in games against teams with a losing record. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Tulane |
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01-03-19 | Raptors +2 v. Spurs | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - I don't foresee Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors being denied here. Yes the Spurs are off a big win over another Atlantic Division opponent, the Celtics, but they hit 14 of 26 three-pointers in that game. That was the difference in the contest and, of course, the odds are very strong that such an insane shooting performance will not be repeated here! Leonard wants this game badly and his teammates know it as this will be his only game in San Antonio this season. He wants to show Coach Gregg Popovich and the Spurs that they made a big mistake in the way they handled him last season. Now it is payback time for Leonard. Note that the Raptors are a respectable 11-7 SU in games against teams with a winning record while San Antonio is only 9-9 SU in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, when off an upset win as an underdog, the Spurs are just 10-11 SU and ATS. Toronto, though off a win, is not happy with their defensive performance in that game and they've gone 6-2 SU this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Also, the Raptors are 14-4 SU when off a game in which they've scored 115 points or more this season. Additionally, Toronto is 21-7 SU this season when facing a team that is allowing 106 points or more per game on the season. The Raptors lost their most recent road game by 29 points. After getting thoroughly embarrassed in Orlando, they've had this road game circled blood red and it is payback time for Leonard and Company! 10* TORONTO |
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01-03-19 | NC State v. Miami-FL +3.5 | Top | 87-82 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #612 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes (+) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 7 ET - The Wolfpack are a ranked team that is 12-1 on the season and, as such, they are very popular in the betting markets as they opened up as a very small favorite here. In typical contrarian fashion I'll take advantage of the line value on the other side as there has already been a move toward NC State early this morning and it has led to solid home dog value with Miami. The lone loss that the Wolfpack has this season was in their only true road game. 10 of their 13 games have been at home and two were neutral site games. The only road game was against the Badgers in Madison, WI. Not only did NC State lead that game by 7 at the half, there will still up by 8 with about 7 minutes to go! From that point on Wisconsin outscored them by a dozen points and the Wolfpack fell short. Don't be surprised if tonight plays out in similar fashion. NC State has a 10 man rotation but half of those players are freshmen and sophomores. Miami has a 7-man rotation with truly just 6 key players (at least until Hernandez is eligible to return). This is a detriment when they are on short rest BUT this is NOT a short rest situation. The Hurricanes have fresh legs and they also have won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Wolfpack are a long-term 6-14 SU in road games and also have lost 6 of their last 9 visits to Miami. The Canes are a long-term 31-6 SU in home games. NC State is overvalued here because they've been strong SU and ATS this season. The Hurricanes at home are not getting enough respect in this one. I expect an outright upset but am happy to grab the points being offered as extra "insurance" in this one. 10* MIAMI |
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01-02-19 | Mavs +2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 122-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Perfect set-up here. The Mavericks are off an ugly loss by 20 points at Oklahoma City Monday. The Hornets are off a huge win by 25 points versus Orlando Monday. Dallas is a fantastic 36-16 ATS (including 6-1 this season!) when off a loss by a double digit margin. Charlotte is an ugly 4-8 SU (and they're laying points here!) when off a victory by a double digit margin. Also, the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and, long-term the Mavs are 10-3 ATS (and SU!) in games played at Charlotte. The Mavericks were on a 5-0 ATS run before the loss to the Thunder. The Hornets were on a 2-7 ATS run before the win over the Magic. Grab the points here but I don't expect to need them. 10* DALLAS |
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01-02-19 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia +4 | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #794 Wednesday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Mountaineers are without Sagaba Konate. However, the emergence of 6'10 Derek Culver is not being given enough of a look by the betting markets as early support is on the Red Raiders here. The fact is that Culver, due to suspension, got to the floor for the first time two games ago. Tonight's game, being his 3rd game back and also at home in a key match-up, is likely to see him play his best game yet. I love the fact that the Red Raiders are ranked quite high and have an 11-1 record with their only loss to Duke because it is masking the fact that, other than the loss to the Blue Devils, Texas Tech has played a rather weak schedule. The fact is that West Virginia started the season ranked but is now unranked and only 8-4 on the season but they've played a tougher schedule than Texas Tech has. If this game was in Lubbock it would be a different story but I like West Virginia at home here. Both teams are rather inexperienced this season and have had to reload. Of course when both teams are young it helps to be on your home floor. Also West Virginia is 3-2 SU in their last 5 meetings with the Red Raiders and the Mountaineers two defeats EACH came by just ONE point. Certainly, though I expect an outright upset here, having the points on our side could also prove very valuable. WVU has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games but that is a situation that has seen them go 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in recent seasons. The Mountaineers are on a 36-6 SU run in home games. Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s while the Mountaineers are 7-2 SU their last 9 games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, the Red Raiders are just 5-15 SU in road games and this is their first true road game of the season. All of the previous Texas Tech games this season have been at home or at a neutral site. They are over-rated in my opinion and I fully expect coach Huggins to have his Mountaineers VERY ready for this Big 12 opener at home! Grab the points. 10* WEST VIRGINIA |
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01-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors OVER 210.5 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET - Yes, I am aware of Kyle Lowry being out for this game. However, I am also aware of the fact that the Raptors are off RARE back to back POOR shooting games. There have been only 2 other times that Toronto shot less than 42% from the field in back to back games. BOTH times their next game flew over the total and, in fact, the average points scored in that next game was 229! Of course the Jazz like to play a slower, grinder-style of game but it is not their choice today. With this game in Toronto, the Raptors will dictate the tempo. The over is 17-10 in Utah's last 27 against Atlantic Division opponents. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 on the season when the Jazz are playing with home loss revenge. Toronto is 17-8 to the over against Northwest Division opponents. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 on the season in Raptors Tuesday games. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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01-01-19 | Marquette v. St. John's OVER 155.5 | Top | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #605 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St John's Red Storm vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play because many are likely to be looking to the under here considering both of these teams stats make them look improved on defense early this season. The key to the value is that the Red Storm and Golden Eagles have padded their defensive stats by having big games against much weaker teams. For the most part, when St John's and Marquette have stepped up in class and faced tougher competition, they've struggled on the defensive end as per usual. That is noteworthy here because both of these teams are known for their high-scoring ways and I expect that to continue in this one. Both games between these teams last season went over the total and I like the fact that each of the last 4 meetings between these teams totaled at least 158 points. The current total on this game as of early Tuesday morning is as low as a 155.5 in some spots. Note that the over is a long-term 7-3 in Marquette's road games with a posted total between 155 and 159.5 points. Overall in road games it is a long-term 15-6 run to the over for the Golden Eagles. St John's has had just 3 unders in its 12 games subsequent to their season opener. Also, the Red Storm are a perfect 3-0 to the over when they are at home and their line ranges from -3 to a pick'em. 10* OVER the total in St John's |
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12-31-18 | Magic +7.5 v. Hornets | Top | 100-125 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #563 Monday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 6:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back spot for the Magic there are four important things to note here that will render that a mute point. Yesterday's game was a day game so that helps in terms of travel and rest. Flight time from Orlando to Charlotte is less than two hours so there was not significant travel involved. The Magic are much improved on defense this season and are entering this game off back to back wins and looking to close 2018 strong. Orlando has NOT forgotten about one of their most embarrassing losses of the season and that 32 point beatdown happened at HOME early this season which was the most recent time the Magic faced the Hornets. This is Orlando's first opportunity at revenge since that game and they'll make the most of it. The Magic are 6-3 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Orlando is 10-4 ATS in road games. Charlotte is actually 6-11 ATS in games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, the Hornets enter this game on an overall 4-10 ATS run their last 14 games. Look for the Magic to improve to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and I would not be surprised if their SU winning streak reaches 3 games as they are playing with a lot of confidence right now after home wins versus Toronto and Detroit. Looking for the upset but will gladly grab the big points as added insurance in this one. 10* ORLANDO |
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12-31-18 | Creighton +1.5 v. Providence | Top | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #753 Monday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ Providence Friars @ 4 ET - The betting markets will love Providence in basically a "pick'em" game on their home floor. As per usual I am going contrarian here with Creighton and, as per usual, it is not without plenty of good reasoning. The Bluejays seek revenge for getting knocked out of the Big East tournament in March in overtime! It is time for payback here and this is the game where the Friars loss of 2nd leading scorer AJ Reeves to injury will prove significant. Though it is true Providence has won 3 straight since the foot injury for Reeves, teams need all the firepower they can get when facing a team with the offensive prowess the likes of Creighton. The Bluejays are averaging 85 points per game this season and knocking down 45% of their three-pointers! I also like the fact that, long-term, the Friars are just 37-51 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s and Providence's SU record in those game is an ugly 33-55! Creighton is a long-term 41-21 SU in games with a posted total in a range of 150 to 159.5 points. Though they've struggled away from home in their past two games they did perform very well in late November in a neutral court tournament and they kick things up a notch for the revenge win here as the Bluejays roll to a road rout at Providence on Monday. 10* CREIGHTON |
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12-28-18 | Nets +4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 87-100 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Friday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Common thinking will be to back Charlotte in this chance at revenge for the loss at Brooklyn on Wednesday. As long-time followers know, my way of thinking is anything but common. Known for being contrarian, I am again going to contrary to the masses here and backing the Nets but is certainly not without reason. The Hornets are on a 3-9 ATS run their last dozen games. Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last 10 games. Charlotte actually has a losing SU record this season when playing with revenge and the past two seasons went a combined 34-56 SU when playing with revenge. The fact is that revenge is one of the most over-played angles in sports betting and, in this case, I am going against the grain and backing the Nets on the road. Brooklyn is a red hot team and is on a 29-14 ATS run long-term against Central Division opponents. Charlotte has gone cold and is on a 12-33 ATS run long-term versus Atlantic Division opponents. The Hornets are also just 5-10 ATS when playing against teams with a losing record this season. The Nets are 13-7 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* BROOKLYN |
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12-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +7.5 v. Wright State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Friday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Wright State Raiders @ 7 ET - Though the Flames are allowing more points per game than the Raiders this season that has to with pace rather than defensive efficiency. In fact, Illinois-Chicago is allowing only 44.2% from the field including 35.1% from 3-point land while Wright State is allowing 46.3% from the field including 40.7% from beyond the arc. Additionally, the Raiders Loudon Love is listed as questionable for this game with an ankle injury. Wright State did win both games last season but the average margin was just 5.5 points per game and I feel UIC has closed the gap between these teams heading into this meeting. Also note that the Flames are the higher-scoring team and also the better shooting team from the field. Illinois-Chicago is 10-4 ATS in Friday games, 9-2 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games, and 18-8 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. Wright State is only 2-4 SU this season against teams that average 77 points or more per game and the Flames fall into that category. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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12-27-18 | Celtics v. Rockets -118 | Top | 113-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets and Celtics are both off big wins on Christmas Day. That said, there is an edge for Houston here as they are still at home while the Celtics were in Boston to host the Sixers on Tuesday. The Rockets have won 7 of their last 8 games and they've had some adjustment time the last few games without Chris Paul. The Celtics are off back to back wins but previously had lost 3 straight. The home team has gotten the SU sweep in the home and home series between these teams the past two seasons. I look for that trend to continue here. Boston is just 4-7 ATS in non-conference games and only 2-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. The Rockets are 10-6 ATS (and 11-5 SU) this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Celtics are a mediocre 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS this season when they have faced teams with a winning record. 10* HOUSTON |
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12-26-18 | Nuggets +3 v. Spurs | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - Of course it looks enticing to play the small home favorite in a match-up like this but I am happy to back the road dog here. Both the Nuggets and Spurs are off losses but Denver is off their worst loss of the season and allowed a season-high in points. Note that they lost a key player to ejection midway in the 3rd quarter of that game and the Nuggets just didn't come ready to play that night. They paid for it and got dominated in the paint on both sides of the floor. Denver will undoubtedly be ready to make up for that effort here. The Nuggets entered that loss to the Clippers having won 11 of their last 13 games both SU and ATS! Also, Denver won the last two meetings with the Spurs last season and the prior loss was just a 2-point defeat at San Antonio. In other words, the 3 points could come in handy here but I am certainly making this play expecting an outright road upset. The Nuggets are 12-5 SU this season against teams with a winning record while the Spurs are just 6-8 SU this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Denver is a long-term 21-10 ATS, including 4-0 ATS the past two seasons, when they are off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. The Nuggets have proven, as shown above, to be the better team in games against winning teams this season. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* DENVER |
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12-25-18 | 76ers +4 v. Celtics | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 5:35 ET - The Celtics are off a win versus Charlotte but previously Boston lost three straight! Also this included back to back losses at home in which the Celtics were completely dominated on the boards by both the Suns and the Bucks. With the rejuvenated and revenge-minded Sixers also fully capable of dominating the rebound department, Boston is likely to again be in trouble here. The Sixers have been on a surge ever since the trade for Jimmy Butler. The 76ers enter this game having won 13 of their last 18 games. Philly is a long-term 25-12 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games and also 7-1 ATS when a divisional game. Also, the Sixers are 6-3 ATS (including 7-2 SU) when playing with revenge this season! This one has the makings of an upset with the strong motivation factor for Philly (0-1 versus Boston this season after being knocked out of playoffs by Celtics last season). With the Celtics recent slump and Boston a long-term 7-13 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more, I am grabbing the points with the underdog Sixers in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-25-18 | Hawaii +5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Tuesday 10* Top Play Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+) vs Rhode Island Rams @ 3:30 ET in Diamond Head Classic @ Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, HI - The Rams are off a win and tight cover versus Charlotte but that comes as no surprise as the 49ers are struggling this season and averaging 58.5 points per game. Rhode Island is 0-3 ATS in road games this season. Though this is a tourney game, since they're facing the host of the tourney in this one, it is a road game. Hawaii is 6-2 SU in home games this season including 4-2 ATS in lined home games. Also, long-term the Rainbow Warriors are 13-6 ATS as a home underdog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Hawaii has played well on the defensive end in their last 3 games and they've gone 2-1 SU and ATS. Overall, the Rainbow Warriors have won 3 of their last 4 games SU. The 49ers are 2-3 ATS their last 5 as a favorite but one of those ATS wins coming by just half a point. The home dog definitely offering value in this one. Look for an upset but grab the points with the Rainbow Warriors as they defend (literally) their home court on the final day of this Christmas weekend tourney. 10* HAWAII |
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12-23-18 | Drake v. San Diego OVER 145 | Top | 110-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Toreros vs Drake Bulldogs @ 7:30 ET in Las Vegas, NV - The Bulldogs are 4-1 to the over in games with a posted total in the 140s this season. Drake is 22-12 to the over the last 3 seasons combined in games with a posted total in the 140s. The Bulldogs are shooting 48% from the field this season and San Diego is also shooting 48% from the field so far this season. As a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Toreros are 4-1 to the over. In tournament games the past 2+ seasons, San Diego is 4-2 to the over. I like the fact that the Toreros are off win over Washington State and are set for a letdown here while the Bulldogs are off a tight low-scoring loss and should bounce back here. It sets this one to be a back and forth affair with plenty of points in my opinion. 10* OVER the total San Diego |
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12-23-18 | Pelicans -115 v. Kings | Top | 117-122 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (-) @ Sacramento Kings @ 6:05 ET - The Kings are playing with revenge here but, keep in mind, they're off a big revenging win over Memphis in their prior game. Now they host a Pelicans team that is hungry off a loss. New Orleans is actually off three straight losses but they previously held 3 of their 4 prior road opponents to 43.9% or less from the field. I look for the Pelicans defense (especially off back to back losses) to be a difference-maker here. Sacramento has actually allowed 50% or better from the field in 5 of their last 7 home games. New Orleans has alternated ATS wins and losses in 13 straight games! Off an ATS loss Thursday, look for this perfect pattern to make it 14 straight with an ATS win here for the Pelicans. The Kings are off a low-scoring win over the Grizzlies but had previously allowed 127.4 points or more in their 5 prior games! 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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12-22-18 | Raptors v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 101-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors Kyle Lowry is expected to miss this game and Toronto is in a back to back spot after the win versus Cleveland last night. They've gone 2-2 without Lowry in these 4 games he has missed but they lost both road games! Also, the Raptors are expected to be without Kawhi Leonard tonight since it is a back to back spot and he played 37 minutes last night. Surprisingly Toronto has had success in most of the games Leonard has missed this season but that is unlikely to be the case here. The 76ers are playing this game with double revenge as they have lost both games to the Raptors this season. Those losses came north of the border though and now the Sixers finally get their chance at home. Of course Philly is laying a small number here and that is certainly noteworthy as they are 15-3 SU in home games this season. Also, note that Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS (and SU) this season when off a divisional game. Prior to last night's big win over Cleveland, the Raptors were on a 3-8 ATS slide. Look for those struggles for Toronto at the betting window to resume as the 76ers get payback tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-22-18 | Connecticut v. Villanova -6 | Top | 58-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #608 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 12:30 ET - The Wildcats are in a great value spot here. Villanova is off back to back losses and, while the loss to Penn certainly wasn't expected, there was no shame in falling just short against Kansas last Saturday. In fact, the Cats cover against the Jayhawks brought Villanova to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. For Nova, this is their final game of the calendar year as their next game is January 2nd versus DePaul in Big East action. In other words, you can bank on the Wildcats being ready to put forth a huge effort in this game. They are hungry and they don't want to end 2018 having not won a game since the 8th of December! As for Connecticut, they are off back to back wins but those came as a big favorite against both Drexel and Manhattan. The Huskies have played 4 games this season with a line in single digits and they've gone 1-3 SU and ATS in those 4 games. In other words, UConn has struggled in tougher match-ups and note also that the Huskies are 4-9 ATS in neutral court games. The Wildcats are on a 20-8 ATS run (including 3-0 ATS this season) in neutral court games. Grab the value with the rather small favorite in a spot where they are primed to dominate. 10* VILLANOVA |
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12-21-18 | Pistons +4 v. Hornets | Top | 86-98 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Friday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Not only has Detroit lost both match-ups with Charlotte this season, the Pistons also lost their final two match-up with the Hornets last season. Suffice to say, incentive is high for the road dog in this one. The Pistons lost at Charlotte by a single point last week Wednesday and it was on a last second shot too so the memory is certainly fresh. Look for Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond to dominate in the paint in this one for a very hungry Detroit team. The Pistons are off an OT win at Minnesota Wednesday and they are 7-2 SU this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Pistons shot the ball very well against the Timberwolves. Detroit is also 8-4 ATS this season in road games! The Hornets are wrapping up a 10-game homestand and are just 8-17 SU their last 25 when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. Also, Charlotte is on a 2-7 ATS run and are off a double digit win over the Cavaliers in their most recent game. That is noteworthy here as the Hornets are just 3-6 SU this season when off a win by 10 or more points. Give me the underdog here as they actually have a great shot at the outright upset per the above and I'll gladly take the generous points being offered. 10* DETROIT |
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12-21-18 | Cal-Irvine v. Butler -8 | Top | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #806 Friday 10* Top Play Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Cal-Irvine Anteaters @ 6:30 ET - With Cal-Irvine at 11-2 on the season and having played a strength of schedule very similar to the 8-3 Bulldogs, many will look at the Anteaters as a big dog value play here. However, a couple of key variables are favoring Butler here. UC-Irvine played Wednesday at Eastern Michigan so they are on short rest here. Also, the Bulldogs recently welcomed Duke transfer Jordan Tucker as he just became eligible. Granted he is not playing huge minutes yet but after scoring 10 points and snaring 7 rebounds in just 12 minutes in Tuesday's game, he certainly is a key asset for Butler to now have available. Butler is known for being a very tough team on their home floor. Also, the Anteaters have been held under 40% from the field in 3 of their last 4 road games. To put that in perspective in this match-up, the Bulldogs come into this game red hot with their shooting. Butler has averaged 80 points per game their last 3 games thanks to hot shooting from the field including from beyond the arc. The Anteaters have been strong defensively this season but the Bulldogs are actually 9-2 (SU and ATS) when facing teams that allow an average of 64 points or less. Not only is UC-Irvine on a 14-21 ATS run against teams with a winning record, it is an 11-27 SU run their last 38! Lay the points and expect a home blowout here. 10* BUTLER |
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12-20-18 | Rockets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #578 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - Huge rest edge for the Heat here as they'll be playing for the first time since Sunday while the Rockets were busy going hard last night to set the NBA record (26) for three pointers last night. Houston now will be on the road and playing for the 3rd tine in 4 days while Miami is playing their 1st game in 4 days. Also, the Heat have revenge here after they got swept by the Rockets last season. Keep in mind Miami did sweep Houston the prior season but now, after the Rockets got their revenge last season, it is the Heat ready to avenge defeat this time around. Also note that Houston is an ugly 2-7 ATS this season when off a non-conference game and also 2-8 ATS when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. As for the Heat, they are a 9-3 ATS in non-conference games this season including a perfect 4-0 ATS against Southwest Division opponents. Also, Miami has held their last two opponents to just 41.5% from the field. Conversely, the Rockets have allowed 53.3% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Look for the Heat to hold the edge defensively tonight and that will be the difference as Houston's shooters cool off on the road. The Rockets, in fact, are just 3-6 SU and ATS in their last 9 road games. More of the same here. 10* MIAMI |
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12-20-18 | Texas Tech +10 v. Duke | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET in New York, NY - The Red Raiders have no chance here! At least that is what the betting markets seem to think and I am happy to fade the masses here. Almighty Duke always gets so much love from bettors but I feel they will fall well short here. Yes the Blue Devils have played the tougher schedule this season and the location of this neutral court game favors Duke but Texas Tech is well-coached and is going to prove to be no push-over. The Red Raiders are playing great defense this season and also are shooting the ball very well on the other end of the court! This line has moved from an opener of 7 all the way up to a 10 and is offering great value on the big dog that, thanks to solid outside shooting, also has a great shot at the backdoor cover here - should that be needed. The Red Raiders are now 15-1 SU in December games the past 3 years. Also, Texas Tech is off to a 10-0 SU start this season that has seen them also go 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. Yes, Duke is one of the best teams in the country again, as per usual, but the Red Raiders are playing with a ton of confidence right now and they are a dangerous dog in this spot. The Blue Devils went 1-2 ATS (and SU!) against Big 12 opponents the past two seasons. Duke also is 0-2 ATS this season when playing with one day or less of rest between games and the Red Raiders certainly hold the rest edge here. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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12-18-18 | Lakers v. Nets OVER 227.5 | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:35 ET - For the 4th time in their last 6 road games, the Lakers allowed at least 48.5% shooting from the field as they gave up 128 points in a loss at Washington on Sunday. Los Angeles, of course, will be looking to bounce back off that loss and I expect their going to have a huge scoring night Tuesday at Brooklyn but I also expect them, per the above, to struggle to stop the Nets. Brooklyn has actually been very hot with their shooting. Part of the reason the Nets are on a 6-0 ATS run and 5-0 SU run is because they have shot 52.1% from the field in their last 4 games! Brooklyn, however, has also allowed 52.9% shooting in their last 3 games! As you would expect with those types of numbers, the O/U is 3-0 in the Nets last 3 games. LA is also 3-0 to the over in their last 3 games. Additionally, the Lakers O/U is a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 road games with a posted total of 220 or more. The Nets O/U is 5-1 when they are off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. Brooklyn is also 4-1 to the over when they are on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Nets are 9-4 to the over in games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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12-18-18 | Oakland v. Georgia OVER 153 | Top | 69-81 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach CBB Game #613 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Georgia Bulldogs vs Oakland (Mich) Golden Grizzlies @ 7 ET - The Golden Grizzlies upset the Bulldogs in 2016 by a count of 86-79. Another high-scoring shootout is likely in the rematch. Oakland (Michigan) continues to be an offensive juggernaut that also pays little attention to defense! The Grizzlies are allowing 49.2% from the field including 37.3% from three point land this season. The strength for Oakland, as per usual, is their shooting abilities. The Grizzlies have shot 48.3% from the field this season including 42.7% from beyond the arc and they've been particularly hot in recent games. They catch the Bulldogs in a "sandwich game" between Arizona State and Georgia Tech. In other words, Georgia may not be totally focused on defensive intensity here. As a result, look for a "run and gun" type game here and the Bulldogs should have no trouble putting up a ton of points as they're shooting 48% from the field this season including 35% from three point land! Georgia is averaging 87 points per game in home games this season. Oakland has averaged 84 points per game in their last 3 games and all those games were on the road too. The over is 6-1 when the Golden Grizzlies are a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. The over is 6-0 when Oakland is off a game in which they scored 80 or more points this season. The Bulldogs are 8-3 to the over in games with a posted total in a range of 150 to 159.5 points. More of the same expected here! 10* OVER the total in Georgia |
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12-17-18 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 213 | Top | 97-102 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz are off on extremely ugly shooting game Saturday but it was played at Mexico City. After that tough performance in an unusual venue look for Utah to shoot much better in a very familiar venue now as they face a Rockets team that eliminated them from the playoffs in the most recent post-season. What is interesting is that now Houston is the revenge-minded team in this match-up as the Jazz took each of the first two games this season. Look for this to result in a very spirited effort from the Rockets here with plenty of points scored! Houston will play "Rockets ball" on their home floor in this one. They've averaged 120.7 points per game in their last 6 home games. Utah should certainly bounce back after the low-scoring game against the Magic. In fact, the over is 5-1 the last 6 times the Jazz were off a game in which they were held to 99 points or less! Utah has averaged a solid 106 points per game in their last 3 games at Houston and we've got a low total to work with here when you consider the way the Rockets have been piling up points at home. The over is 5-1 in Houston's last 6 home games. The over is also 4-1 this season when the Rockets are off a divisional game. Utah is a long-term 34-18 to the over in games played against Southwest Division opponents. Look for another "Southwest Shootout" in this match-up tonight! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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12-16-18 | Green Bay v. Michigan State OVER 160.5 | Top | 83-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #733 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Michigan State Spartans vs Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 5 ET - The Spartans are off a hard-fought low-scoring win over Florida. However, they've had a full week off since then and now face "only" Wisconsin-Green Bay and Oakland (Michigan) to wrap up their pre-Christmas schedule. The point is that the Spartans are highly unlikely to put forth a huge effort on the defensive end here. Keep in mind UWGB likes to play very fast but their game at Creighton earlier this week stayed under the total simply because the Phoenix had a rare poor shooting night. Their normal struggles on the defensive end continued in that game and the over is a perfect 4-0 in UWGB's meetings with Michigan State. As for the Spartans, they had averaged 87 points per game in their first 9 games this season before that low scoring win over the Gators. They can get to triple digits here against the Phoenix. As for the UWGB offensive production, they are averaging 85 points per game this season. You can see that the line on this game is in the -25 range on Michigan State and there is no reason they can't get about 100 in this game. Look for a game in the range of 100 to 75 as this one is played very "loose" with plenty of run and gun. The result is a high-scoring game that flies over the total. Not only is the over 4-0 in the last 4 games between these teams, the over is also 4-0 this season when Green Bay is off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. The over is also 3-0 when the Spartans enter a game with 7 or more days of rest between games. Combined 11-0 mark here favors a very high-scoring contest. 10* OVER the total in Michigan State |
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12-16-18 | 76ers -8 v. Cavs | Top | 128-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:35 ET - Situations just don't get much better than this and, yes, I am aware of Jimmy Butler being questionable for this game with a groin injury. The 76ers were a perfect 10-0 at home this season when the Cavaliers visited Philadelphia last month and put an end to that perfection with a dominating road win. The 76ers haven't forgotten that and it is time for payback here. With Philly off rare back to back losses, the hunger factor is even higher for the revenge-minded Sixers here. The last 7 times that the 76ers have been off a loss they've gone 5-2 ATS. Look for a huge road win and cover here. The Cavaliers are off a double digit loss to the Bucks but don't look for a bounce back here! Cleveland is actually an ugly 20-38 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. The Sixers are a long-term 31-16 ATS (including 4-1 ATS this season) when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. The 76ers are also 32-16 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-15-18 | Bulls v. Spurs OVER 211.5 | Top | 98-93 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Hardwood Hammer - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Chicago Bulls @ 8:35 ET - I suffered a very frustrating loss with the Spurs "over" on Thursday. San Antonio was up 66-57 at the half against the Clippers so it was on pace for 246 points. Inexplicably, the Clippers were so inaccurate with second half shooting they "couldn't even throw the ball in the ocean" as they saying goes. LA scored 30 points in the ENTIRE second half after scoring nearly that in EACH of the first two quarters. Anyway, that is leading to come key total value here as the total between the Bulls and Spurs was higher when these teams just recently met in Chicago. The fact is that San Antonio has been playing some solid defense but they also have been red hot with their shooting on offense. That said, after a string of solid performances on D against Western Conference foes, don't be surprised if SA is a bit lack-luster on the defensive end as the 6-23 Bulls come to town. As for Chicago, they are off a game in Mexico City which was a grinder with tough shooting in an unfamiliar setting. The Bulls will be happy to get back to a regular venue and should thrive tonight with a strong game offensively. Chicago scored 107 points versus the Spurs in their match-up about 3 weeks ago. San Antonio enters this game having averaged 118 points per game in their last 7 games. Also, SA is still 10-4 to the over their last 14 games despite that ridiculous "under" result on Thursday. The over is 3-1 this season in Spurs games against Central Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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12-15-18 | Cincinnati v. Mississippi State -3 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #646 Saturday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 8:30 ET - As long-time followers know, I love to go against the grain. That is what my contrarian crusher picks are all about and, in this case, with a line move from -5 to -3 on the Bulldogs, I won't hesitate to step in. Keep in mind, Mississippi State is off an impressive neutral court win over Clemson last week and now they get this game at home against Cincinnati. The Bulldogs have balanced scoring with all 5 scorers averaging in double figures plus they are red hot from three point land. Hot shooting from beyond the arc can sometimes go hold WHEN a team heads on the road or is in an unfamiliar surrounding. As you can see, that should NOT be the case here as this game is at Mississippi State so the Bulldogs should remain RED HOT from outside. Keep in mind this is a revenge game from last season. Though the Bearcats won that game it was at Cincinnati and the Bulldogs were simply done in by poor shooting in the 65-50 loss. Also, gone for Cincy from that team are 3 players who accounted for 49 of the 65 points. All are playing pro ball now with 2 in the NBA and one playing professionally overseas. I also like the coaching edge in the rematch with Ben Howland over Mick Cronin. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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12-13-18 | Clippers v. Spurs OVER 222 | Top | 87-125 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs have had back to back unders in their last two games but the over was 10-1 in their 11 prior games. Also, the over is a perfect 4-0 in San Antonio's last 4 games versus Los Angeles. The Clippers are on a 12-3-1 run to the over in their last 16 games. The Spurs are 9-2 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Clips are 39-18 to the over (including 11-2 this season) when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Look for the defensive struggles of LA to continue in this one but also note that Los Angeles has averaged 114.5 points per game in their last two games versus the Spurs. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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12-13-18 | Morehead State v. Samford -7.5 | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Thursday 10* Top Play Samford Bulldogs (-) vs Morehead State Eagles @ 7:30 ET - When I saw this game was coming up I knew I would be involved after what I witnessed Monday with Morehead State. The Eagles were down by 20 at half at Marshall and still down by 21 with under 2 minutes to go. I was holding a Thundering Herd ticket at -13. The game should be over. Inexplicably Morehead State finished the game on an 11-2 run to lose by 12. First off when a team is down that much there is no chance of a comeback and so usually the trailing team wouldn't even get off enough shots to even have a chance to score 11 points! It was one of the most unbelievable losses I have been a part of and I have been wagering for over 25 years now. We'll get payback tonight. In lined games, the Eagles have now been held to 36.2% or less from the field in 4 straight games! They are facing a Samford team that plays much better defense than they do. Morehead State is allowing 46.9% from the field this season while the Bulldogs are allowing just 37.9% from the field this season. The Eagles also do not defend the 3-point shot nearly as well as Samford does. The Bulldogs were done in by injuries last season but are well-coached and have bounced right back early this season. Samford is 8-2 on the season and the only losses were to Ohio State and an OT loss to Belmont whom plays in the same Ohio Valley Conference that Morehead State does. But Belmont won 24 games last season while the Eagles won only 8 games! Morehead State is on an 8-13 ATS run in non-conference games while the Bulldogs are 9-0 ATS this season! 10* SAMFORD |
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12-12-18 | Nets v. 76ers -7 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #538 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers will likely be without Jimmy Butler for this game. As a result, this line has been over-adjusted too low and I am happy to step in and take advantage. Keep in mind the Sixers played nearly the entire game versus Detroit without Bulter (0 points in 10 minutes early before he got hurt) and yet they still rolled the Pistons. Also, in their prior game (also versus Pistons but at Detroit), Joel Embiid was out and Butler took over. Philadelphia has plenty of options on offense because they also have Ben Simmons and then they've seen other role players stepping up and having big games for them. Embiid shook off early rust and had a huge game versus the Pistons and so he'll carry momentum right into this match-up with the Nets. Surprisingly, Brooklyn enters this game off back to back wins but, keep in mind, the Nets had previously lost 12 of their 14 prior games! They're facing a 76ers team that is 14-1 SU at home this season! This is why I have no hesitation in laying the modest number at home here with Philly! The Sixers are 6-3 ATS (and 9-0 SU) in home games with posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Nets are only 2-12 ATS in their last 14 SU losses. In other words, when they lose SU they also have been losing ATS at a high percentage clip. Look for that trend to continue here as Embiid again takes over with Butler sitting out. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-12-18 | Massachusetts v. Temple -8.5 | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #704 Wednesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (-) vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - The set-up here is perfect. The Minutemen are off a tight 1-point outright upset win as a nearly double digit dog at Providence while the Owls are off a 10 point loss to Philly rival Villanova. Temple is absolutely going to bring their "A game" tonight as a result and they also have revenge on their side. When these teams met two years ago UMass got the tight 3-point win at home despite the Owls having a double digit edge in field goal attempts. The point is that Temple just wasn't hitting their shots that night. Now the Owls get a revenge opportunity and it comes on their home floor. Additionally, the Minutemen only have 2 players back that played in that game while the players who logged the majority of the minutes for Temple in that game will be on the floor for this rematch. Massachusetts relies heavily on their 5'11 junior guard Luwane Pipkins and he is a great player. However, the Owls strength is their backcourt play and by containing (or at least limiting) Pipkins in this game, Temple will have a big edge as they are a much more balanced team than the Minutemen are. UMass is prone to turnover issues and the Owls are solid in terms of the turnover to steals ratio. In terms of technical support for this play, the Minutemen are 2-6 ATS this season and continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Massachusetts is also 5-15 ATS in Wednesday games. The Owls are 12-4 ATS in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The key here being that they are much better defensively in comparison with the Minutemen. 10* TEMPLE |
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12-11-18 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - Each of these teams enter this game having stayed under the total in 3 straight games. However, it is a statistical anomaly that won't continue here. That's because the Blazers are actually hitting 49% from the field their last 5 games and the Rockets are now back home where they've gone over the total in 4 straight games. Houston has shot 52% from the field in those 4 games. The over is 5-1 in Portland's last 6 road games. The over is 6-2 when the Rockets enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, when Houston is off an upset loss as a favorite, the over is 6-3 this season and the Rockets are 4-0 to the over when off a divisional game this season. Portland is 3-1 to the over this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Both teams have fresh legs here and the shots will be scorching the nets in this one! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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12-11-18 | Villanova v. Pennsylvania OVER 139 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pennsylvania Quakers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats had one of their worst games on offense Saturday while at the same time having one of their best games of the season on defense. Of course the result was an under and the added result is some extra value with the low total on this game involving the Quakers. Pennsylvania has been shooting the ball very well particularly on their home floor this season. As for Villanova, they've averaged 86 points per game in their last two meetings with Penn. The Quakers are averaging 80 points per game this season. I am well aware of the fact that Pennsylvania has struggled to score well against Nova in recent meetings but this situation is entirely different as, for the most part, the Wildcats have not been as strong on the defensive end early this season. At the same time, the Penn offense has been a real positive early this season with hot outside shooting leading the way. The over is a long-term 17-6 when Villanova is a road favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The over is a long-term 13-7 in Penn's games against Big East opponents and also the Quakers are a perfect 3-0 to the over in home games this season. 10* OVER the total in Pennsylvania |
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12-10-18 | Pistons v. 76ers -7 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are rested and ready here. Yes, I am aware of the Joel Embiid situation but he didn't play in the match-up with Detroit on Friday and yet the Sixers still won by a half dozen points and that game was at Detroit. While Philly has been off since Friday, the Pistons are in a tough scheduling spot here as they did battle with the Pelicans yesterday. That loss to New Orleans dropped the Pistons to 0-4 their last 4 games (SU and ATS). Not only does that make this a back to back spot for Detroit, it is also the Pistons 3rd game in the last 4 days. Detroit is 11-22 SU when playing on back to back days and 7 of their last 8 SU losses have also been ATS losses. In other words, when the Pistons do lose they usually don't cover either! As for the Sixers, when they get a SU win they usually do cover as 11 of their last 15 SU win have also been ATS wins. Philadelphia is on a 32-16 ATS run in games with a posted total of 220 or more. Also, the 76ers are on a 64-36 ATS run in home games. They are 13-1 SU in home games this season and are also 23-12 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. All factors considered, including this line being around a 7 as of early game day morning, this is a great value spot on the Sixers as they have big situational edges here. Philly has held their last 5 opponents to a combined 40% from the field! Great defensive numbers while the Pistons have allowed 50% from the field in their last 4 games. All signs point to a home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-10-18 | Morehead State v. Marshall -13 | Top | 64-76 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #880 Monday 10* Top Play Marshall Thundering Herd (-) vs Morehead State Eagles @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Thundering Herd are off of an OT loss on Saturday and are on short rest here. However, I would argue that their scheduling situation is much better than that of the Eagles here. Morehead State has not played yet in December and is likely to be rusty. The Eagles also are walking right into a hornets nest tonight. Marshall is seeking revenge for a loss at Morehead State last season. I know the points are fairly big here but the Thundering Herd were 4-0 at home this season before the loss to Toledo Saturday and each of their last 3 home wins have come by a margin of at least 20 points. Both these teams like to play at a fast pace and with "run and gun" being the story here, the team that is NOT rusty and that is also at home and that is also playing with revenge certainly holds a large edge. Keep in mind Marshall was a pleasant surprise last season and even got a big upset win in the Big Dance too last spring. Though the Thundering Herd have underachieved early this season, this is the perfect spot for them to get on track as they take advantage of facing an Ohio Valley Conference foe that had lost 3 straight games (all by 17 or more) before blowing out a very small basketball program - Chillicothe - in their final game of November. Another key to just how much emphasis Marshall is placing on this game is that this is their final home game until mid-January! In other words, the Thundering Herd want to make the most of this opportunity and they won' take their foot off the gas here. The Eagles are 7-13 ATS in non-conference games. The Thundering Herd are 16-6 ATS when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* MARSHALL |
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12-09-18 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 230 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 6:05 ET - Yes this is a big game so you would expect some extra defensive intensity but, truth be told, neither one of these teams is where they are today because of defense. The Raptors and Bucks are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference because of their scoring prowess. Of course this is a big revenge game for Toronto after losing at Milwaukee earlier this season. That is certainly noteworthy as the Raptors are a perfect 6-0 to the over this season when playing with revenge. As for the Bucks, they are a perfect 4-0 to the over this season in games in which they are an underdog. Additionally, the over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Milwaukee's games against Atlantic Division opponents. Last but not least, the over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. That means we have combined angles of 19-0 / 100% PERFECT in this one in support of a high-scoring blockbuster. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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12-09-18 | Tennessee +4 v. Gonzaga | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #859 Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (+) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 3 ET in Jerry Colangelo Classic @ Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, AZ - As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian and it is something that has served me very well through the years. This is another prime example of going against the grain. This line on #1 ranked and undefeated Gonzaga was as low as a -2 and has since been driven up to as high as a -4 in some spots. Of course this comes as no surprise as the betting markets are attracted to spots like this and also the game, though a "neutral site" is being played out west. That makes the Bulldogs the play here the way most people see it. What I see is we're getting some extra value here with an underdog that has the much better defensive stats on the season. Tennessee is the perfect example of what a "dangerous dog" is comprised of as they are allowing just 63.6 points per game on only 35.5% shooting from the field this season even though they've played a schedule that has been nearly equivalent to the strength of schedule Gonzaga has faced early this season. Keep in mind the Bulldogs barely beat Washington in their most recent game and also looked to be in trouble against Creighton (until late 2nd half) in their prior game. That is the same Bluejays team that got manhandled by Nebraska yesterday. The point is that the Bulldogs could be slightly over-rated at this point and I expect an upset here with the Vols so I will gladly grab the available points. Note that the Volunteers are 12-4 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, Gonzaga is a long-term 7-13 ATS versus SEC opponents. 10* TENNESSEE |
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12-08-18 | Nuggets v. Hawks OVER 222.5 | Top | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:35 ET - The Nuggets are off a loss last night that snapped a 7-game winning streak. Even though Denver shot very poorly in the game it still went over the total. In other words, that tells you the type of quick pace they're playing. Yes, I am aware there are some injury situations for each team heading into this game but, the point is, I do not expect the Nuggets to take their foot off the games in this one. That said, Denver did score 138 points when they hosted the Hawks last month. As for Atlanta, the over is 7-2 in their last 9 games. Also, the Hawks are 6-2 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. Atlanta is 8-4 to the over in home games this season. The over is 25-12 when the Nuggets are on the road and the posted total on their game is 220 points or more. Look for another one to fly over the total here as Denver will be ready to push the pace from the opening tip after what happened last night at Charlotte. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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12-08-18 | Creighton +7 v. Nebraska | Top | 75-94 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Saturday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 6 ET - Many will be looking to back the revenge-minded home team that also has the better numbers defensively and is a Top 25 team. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going the other way in this game. The Bluejays have had the Cornhuskers number in recent seasons and Creighton is very comfortable (and used to) playing at Nebraska. That negates a bit of the normal home court edge in a game like this. As a result, there is even more line value here with the under-valued underdog. Creighton is up to a 7 point dog as of early game day morning and this is a team that led Gonzaga pretty late in the game before falling short in last Saturday's action. The Bluejays have played a tougher schedule than Nebraska early this season and though Creighton's numbers on defense do not impress, the Huskers are also having trouble getting stops on defense of late. That said, if this game turns into a shootout it favors the sharp-shooters of Creighton plus it is good to have the points on your side in a rivalry game that could be close late. There is just so much confidence with the Bluejays here because of the way they can score and go on huge scoring runs plus they have the added confidence of having played well at Nebraska. From a technical standpoint, I like the fact that the Jays are 16-6 ATS (and 18-4 SU!) when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Nebraska is just 6-9 SU after a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Also, the Cornhuskers are on a 2-8 ATS run when hosting the Bluejays. 10* CREIGHTON |
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12-07-18 | 76ers -130 v. Pistons | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are moving to -2.5 in a lot of shops this morning but also are still available as low as -130 on the money line this morning which is how I would play it if you have access to that. Either way though I do expect a road rout from Philadelphia here. They are off a loss where they had a rough 4th quarter at Toronto on Wednesday. That certainly holds significance here as the Sixers have lost back to back games only once this season and that was over 6 weeks ago! Ironically their lone two-game skid did include a loss at Detroit so Philly will look to get payback after crazy overtime game against the Pistons early this season. Of course the Sixers now have Jimmy Butler and are a stronger team than they were earlier in the season. The Pistons are off back to back losses and are 1-3 SU this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. That ugly skid (a 5-gamer) included a loss at Philly and this time the Sixers get the job done again albeit at Detroit! The Pistons are 1-3 SU this season after a loss by 10 or more points. Also, Detroit is 32-55 SU in games against teams with a winning record. The 76ers are a perfect 4-0 SU this season when off a loss by 10 or more points. Also, the Sixers are 5-0 SU (and ATS) when off a divisional game. Look for Philly to respond after the 4th quarter collapse against the Raptors. The 76ers can't wait to get back on the floor and atone for that loss. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-07-18 | Massachusetts v. Providence OVER 149 | Top | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #521 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Providence Friars vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - Both teams have gotten a lot of scoring options from new faces this season but each team is also still looking to gel in terms of defensive rotations. As a result, plenty of high-scoring games have resulted. Both teams are shooting the ball quite well, including from beyond the arc, and the over is 7-2 in UMass games this season and 5-2 in Providence games with a posted total of 140 or more. In recent seasons, the over is 13-6 when the Minutemen are off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Also, the over is 17-8 in Massachusetts road games and this is their first true road game of this season. Both of the neutral site games for UMass this season did go over the total. The Friars are 25-11 to the over in games where they are the favorite. Also, Providence is 19-6 to the over in games where they are a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Both the Friars and Minutemen take a ton of threes and both teams have enjoyed solid success in knocking them down this season. That said, I look for this non-conference match-up to result in plenty of points. Each of the last two meetings with the Friars as the host have gone over the total and this one is destined to do the same! 10* OVER the total in Providence |
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12-06-18 | Knicks v. Celtics OVER 217.5 | Top | 100-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks @ 8:05 ET - This is a revenge game for the Celtics. That means they are NOT going to try and grind out a win against a Knicks team they know they can dominate. Look for this one to be played at a very fast pace as a result as Boston will NOT take their foot off the gas in this one. The Celtics have fresh legs as they've been off since Saturday. Boston seeks payback here for that 117-109 loss to the Knicks two weeks ago. In that game the Celtics had 97 shots from the field but simply had an "off" shooting night. That won't happen again here! New York has allowed 119 points per game their last 4 games. The over is 6-2 in the Knicks last 8 road games. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 Celtics games overall. In Boston's last 6 games they had one horrible scoring effort (versus Utah) but have averaged 117.6 points per game in the other 5 games. The over is 4-1 when Boston is a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The over is 21-9 when the Celtics enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive games going over the total. In other words, don't be surprised when we see another one here. The over is 8-4 in Knicks games against teams with a winning record. More of the same in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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12-06-18 | Iowa State -120 v. Iowa | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Thursday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (-) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 8 ET - As I mentioned in my write-up Monday when I faded Iowa and played Michigan State, the Hawkeyes were hoping for key contributions in the front-court this season from Jack Nunge and Cordell Pemsl. Both guys are out for the season. Granted they were not their stars but Iowa could ill afford to lose depth. Even though guard Joe Wieskamp - a freshman - has stepped up for the Hawkeyes in the back-court, he is currently dealing with an ankle injury. He is expected to start tonight but don't be surprised if it flares up on him. The bigger issue for the Hawkeyes is their front-court as they continue to allow a ton of points in the paint. Though the Cyclones tend to go with a lineup comprised of 4 perimeter players with 1 big man, they can also adjust that if they want but why tinker with what is working great? The fact is that Iowa State has gotten huge contributions from big man Michael Jacobson and they are already 7-1 this season and playing much better defense than the Hawkeyes. Keep in mind, Iowa had a huge problem with defense last season and it has continued to be their Achilles heel this season as well. Plus compounding the issue for Iowa is that now they are not shooting well either. The Hawkeyes have been held to 39% or less from the field in 3 straight games. I love the fact here that, from a public perspective, Iowa will be attractive as they are at home and are the ranked team and are seeking revenge but yet are the dog here. In a situation like this I'll gladly take the better team that is unranked and on the road. Don't be fooled by the line here folks. In fact, keep in mind, the best value for those of you with access to it is to grab the money line here (currently in the -120 range as of early Thursday morning). The Hawkeyes are on an ugly 4-9 SU run against teams that allow 64 points or less per game. The Cyclones are 19-10 SU when off a game in which they scored 80 points or more and they stay red hot here and dominate this rivalry match-up. 10* IOWA STATE |
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12-05-18 | 76ers +6 v. Raptors | Top | 102-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers head to Toronto in much different shape than when they traveled north of the border earlier this season. Philly now has Jimmy Butler and they also are carrying the confidence of a 3-game homestand sweep that saw them hold opponents under 99 points in all 3 games. The Sixers view this as a huge game to prove they can compete among the best in the east as most everyone has already anointed the Raptors as the highly likely Eastern Conference representative for the NBA Finals this season. Of course the Bucks and Sixers (and Celtics too once they get back on track) have a little something to say about that! Toronto's defense has struggled at times in 3 of their last 4 games. The Sixers have gotten back to playing the "right way" on the defensive end and, with Butler joining Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, this team is going to be a much tougher match-up than what Kawhi Leonard and company dealt with in late October! Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS (and 5-1 SU!) when playing with revenge this season. The 76ers are also a long-term 23-11 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Toronto is a long-term 8-18 ATS in home games with posted total of 220 points or more. Also, the Raptors are only 5-8 ATS in all home games this season. Don't be surprised if the Sixers get the upset here but I am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-05-18 | Ohio State -5 v. Illinois | Top | 77-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #529 Wednesday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Illinois Illini @ United Center in Chicago, IL @ 7 ET - The last time the Buckeyes faced the Illini away from Columbus they lost by 5. It is payback time here and the set-up is perfect. Ohio State is off a Big Ten home opener win and doesn't play again, after this game, until the 15th. That game will be against Bucknell. In other words, without a shadow of a doubt the Buckeyes are fully focused on this game and they are also catching a struggling Illinois team. The Illini have lost 6 of their last 7 games. The only 2 SU wins that Illinois has this season is when they were a double digit favorite. The problem with Illinois, just like last season, is defense. The Illini have allowed 7 straight opponents to make at least 46% of their shots from the field and, during this stretch they have allowed an average of better than 50% from the field for the opposition. The Buckeyes have been a pleasant surprise early this season and have been strong on both ends of the floor. They are playing well together as a cohesive group while Illinois has had issues with consistency which is not surprising given how many key players they lost from last season's team. I am aware of the injury involving Buckeyes freshman guard Luther Muhammad but Ohio State played very well without him versus Minnesota and have solid depth in their backcourt. The Buckeyes are 5-1 SU (and 4-2 ATS) against teams that allow 77 points or more per game. The Illiini are 5-11 SU (and 4-12 ATS) in neutral court games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. The Buckeyes are allowing just 60 points per game this season while Illinois is allowing 77 points per game! 10* OHIO STATE |
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12-04-18 | Northeastern v. Syracuse -10 | Top | 49-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #720 Tuesday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (-) vs Northeastern Huskies @ 6:45 ET - The Orange are off a rather unimpressive effort versus Cornell. Yes they beat the Big Red but they certainly didn't dominate and their next game is going to be a Big East foe as they face Georgetown Saturday. Though that is still not a conference game for the Orange, the point is that Syracuse knows they need to clean things up sooner rather than later. Hosting Northeastern on Tuesday should provide the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Huskies are without three key players from last season and all are guards. Northeastern has been without Shawn Occeus (Colonial Defensive POY last season), Max Boursiquot (started all but 1 game last season), and Vasa Pusica. The latter of those 3 players is the Huskies best player by far and he has been out since Northeastern's big win over Alabama. The short-handed Huskies just won't have enough to get by the deeper and much more talented Orange. Syracuse also will be in "response mode" on the defensive end as they've been a little lackluster in that aspect of their game recently and head coach Jim Boeheim is demanding a strong effort in this game. As injury-riddled as Northeastern is, they still have some solid outside shooters and the Orange must contest those shots. Look for them to do just that and to dominate this game. Look for the Orange to improve to 3-0 ATS when they are a favorite in a range of 10 to 19 points this season. The Huskies drop to 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they've been a dog. 10* SYRACUSE |
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12-04-18 | Magic +2.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The Heat were favored by 2.5 AT Orlando in their season opener and lost. That makes this a revenge game for Miami and some may be surprised to see they are again favored by 2.5 even though this game is on their home floor. However, the key is that Goran Dragic is still out for the Heat. Even though he practiced with the team Monday he has already been ruled out for Tuesday and will be missing his 8th straight game. Why is this significant? He is certainly one of Miami's best players and, in fact, led the Heat with 26 points in the first game with the Magic and that was a 3 point loss! Note that the Magic enter this game having gone 8-2-1 ATS this season on the road. As for Miami, they are a horrible 1-6 ATS in divisional games this season. Overall, Orlando is on a 10-1-1 ATS run their last dozen games and they've been off for 3 days entering this match-up. The Heat are off back to back upset wins but Miami has shot just 41% from the field in those two games. The Magic have shot 50% their last two games and will be ready for another divisional battle here. 10* ORLANDO |
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12-03-18 | Thunder -113 v. Pistons | Top | 110-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - With the Thunder such a small favorite here (-1 in many spots) as of early game day morning, it is well worth it to play the money line (-115 range) in this one. Oklahoma City is 7-1 SU in non-conference games this season. The Thunder have won 13 of their last 17 games. I know that the Pistons have also been hot but I like the Western Conference team in a match-up like this. Adding to the value here is the fact that the Pistons are off a Saturday win over the defending NBA Champion Warriors. Also, the road team won both meetings between these teams last season and the Thunder have been off since Friday so they are well-rested here. The Pistons are just 4-4 SU this season when facing teams with a winning record. The Thunder are 3-1 SU this season in games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, OKC is 12-4 ATS (and 14-2 SU!) when facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game. The Pistons are 7-12 ATS when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 3 or more games and the Thunder get the big road win here at a great price. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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12-03-18 | Iowa v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #516 Monday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 6:30 ET - The Spartans have opened up as a double digit favorite even though the Hawkeyes are very close to them in the rankings. Must be a mistake, right? Of course it is not a mistake but bettors will be attracted to Iowa as a result. Don't be fooled here as Michigan State should win this game in an absolute annihilation. The Spartans have played a tougher schedule than Iowa and also are the much deeper and much more veteran team. The Hawkeyes also were hoping for key contributions in the front-court this season from Jack Nunge and Cordell Pemsl. Both guys are out for the season. Granted they were not their stars but Iowa could ill afford to lose depth. Keep in mind this is the Hawkeyes first true road game of the season and they are 4-17 SU and 4-15 ATS in road games the past two seasons. The Spartans are a dominating 15-1 SU (and 12-4 ATS) in their last 16 home games versus Iowa. Also, Michigan State has already had wake-up calls with a loss at Louisville and a tight win at Rutgers. Remember the Spartans did lose their season opener (by just 5 points against powerful Kansas). In other words, this is a team that has already been battle tested and has proven worthy of respect. In this game, their Big Ten home opener, look for the Spartans to put one foot on the throats of the Hawkeyes and they won't take their other foot off the gas either! In other words, they dominate this one and win by 15 to 20 points. Michigan State is the much better team in terms of shooting and defense plus they've played the tougher schedule as noted above. Look for the Spartans to improve to 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) on the season when favored. 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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12-01-18 | Cincinnati v. UNLV +6.5 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game # 580 Saturday 10* Top Play UNLV Rebels (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 6 ET - It wasn't that long ago that Bearcats head coach Mick Cronin supposedly had accepted the UNLV job and yet, when he did not, speculation ran rampant that he merely used the Rebels to gain leverage with his contract situation at Cincinnati. Note that Cronin did get a 2-year extension with the Bearcats after the UNLV "debacle". Suffice to say, emotions will be running high for this one as UNLV now hosts Cronin's Bearcats Saturday afternoon at 3 PM local time here in Vegas. Rebels head coach Marvin Menzies has done a great job rebuilding the UNLV basketball program. Even though they lost some key players from last year's team, they had a great recruiting class and have plenty of talent this season. With the young Rebels able to play host in this one, I see them holding the edge over a Cincinnati team playing its first true road game of the season. Note that the Bearcats have covered 4 straight games but they were favored my more than a dozen points in 3 of the 4 games. The Rebels are off a loss but previously had won 4 straight games and I look for them to bounce back strong here. Grab the big points here. 10* UNLV |
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12-01-18 | Bucks v. Knicks OVER 230.5 | Top | 134-136 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 5:05 ET - The Bucks are averaging 120.8 points per game this season. However, their defense has been sub-par over the past week and they certainly are unlikely to be overly "amped up" about facing a 7-16 Knicks team. In other words, this one is likely to be played at a fast pace with plenty of open floor for New York to "run and gun". Milwaukee has allowed 48.9% shooting and 117 points per game in its last 4 contests. The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between the Bucks and Knicks. Milwaukee is also 4-0 to the over in games against Atlantic Division opponents this season. Saturday games for the Bucks are a long-term 24-9 to the over and December games are 22-7 to the over the past two seasons. The Knicks most recent game stayed under the total but they entered that contest having gone 6-2 to the over in their prior 8 games. New York is also an incredible 17-6 to the over in Saturday games and 15-6 to the over when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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11-30-18 | Jazz +2 v. Hornets | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Jazz got Donovan Mitchell back in their most recent game as he saw his first significant action in the past 4 games. Utah could also have newly acquired Kyle Korver on the floor for this game too. Of course he is going to be a big boost to the 3-point shooting woes the Jazz have experience. The Hornets are off back to back wins for the 4th time this season. That holds significance here as Charlotte has yet to win 3 straight games so far this season. I don't expect that to change here. Look for the Jazz to improve to 5-2 SU and ATS when coming off a non-conference game this season. The Hornets are 13-23 SU and ATS when off a divisional game. This game also involves the East vs West theory which is one that, in recent seasons, favors the West as they've been the stronger conference for many consecutive seasons now. Look for Charlotte to drop to 0-3 SU this season in games against non-conference foes. The Jazz are 13-7 SU their last 20 against Southeast Division opponents and also 40-22 SU when off a win by a double digit margin. Look for another road rout for the Jazz here. 10* UTAH |
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11-30-18 | Mississippi State -3.5 v. Dayton | Top | 65-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Friday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) @ Dayton Flyers @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Flyers as they lost at Mississippi State last season. However, though that was only a 2-point loss for Dayton, the Flyers were actually down by 15 points at the half. The Bulldogs let them back in the game in the second half but I expect this year's match-up to play out much differently. Mississippi State is loaded with returning talent and veteran leadership while Dayton lost some key pieces compared to the team they were two seasons ago. That said, I have no hesitation in laying the short number on the road in this one. The Bulldogs are the better team, the bigger team, and the more veteran team. Also, Mississippi State is a fantastic 32-15 ATS when they enter a game having failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. Additionally, the Bulldogs are on a 4-0 ATS run in Friday games. The Flyers are on a 3-7 ATS run when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. Look for Dayton to show some "rust" here as they have not played in a week and I expect the Flyers to drop to 3-6 ATS the last 9 times they've been a home dog in a range of 3.5 of 6 points. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-29-18 | Warriors +9.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - It is the wounded dog that bites the hardest! In other words, just because Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are likely out for this game it does not mean the Warriors are going to be a push-over for the Raptors. Golden State has been getting the job done even without these guys and I like the fact that the Warriors have held their last 3 opponents to a combined 42.9% from the field. The Raptors burned me at Memphis Tuesday as they rallied from a 17 point deficit and they got the win and cover at the Grizzlies despite Toronto attempting just 69 shots from the field. The fact is that the Raptors have allowed 10 field goal attempts more than they've taken in their last 3 games combined. Were it not for a ridiculous 61% shooting percentage from the field at Memphis Tuesday, the Raptors never would have won that game and they're certainly not repeating that effort against the Warriors tonight. Golden State will be "dialed in" on defense tonight because, even with missing a few guys, the last thing they want to do is get blown out in a possible NBA finals preview. The Warriors will bring their "A game" for this one. When GS is on an over streak of 3 or more consecutive overs, they've gone 14-6 ATS in recent seasons including a perfect 3-0 ATS this season! Toronto is 0-3 ATS this season in home games against Western Conference opponents. More of the same here. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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11-29-18 | Alabama v. UCF OVER 133.5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #507 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Central Florida Golden Knights vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 7 ET - The Golden Knights are known for their defense but they've also been shooting the ball very well this season and have averaged 75.3 points per game thus far. That is noteworthy here in terms of looking for a high-scoring game because the Crimson Tide have scored 78 points or more in 5 of their 6 games this season. Alabama is struggling on the defensive end this season and I expect Central Florida to take advantage. However, Crimson Tide also has plenty of confidence from their offensive production leading the way to a 5-1 start. These teams met last season and that familiarity with what to expect will also help each team better attack the defense in this rematch. I know last year's game played out to an under but the Tide are quite a different team this season and I expect them to push the pace much more in this rematch after falling short in a low-scoring battle last season at home. The over is 3-0 this season in Alabama's games with a posted total in the 130s. Look for UCF to improve to 3-1 to the over in home games this season. Before a low-scoring win over Northern Kentucky last week, the Golden Knights had scored 77 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games. 10* OVER the total in Central Florida |
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11-28-18 | Wizards v. Pelicans -6 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #716 Wednesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - The Wizards have shot a ridiculously high percentage from the field in their last two games. One of those was against the Pelicans. However, both of those games were in Washington and I don't expect the Wizards to stay hot now that they are on the road for this one. The Wizards are just 2-7 SU on the road this season while New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season. Now, of course, we need more than just a SU win to get the cash here. However, note that Washington is 0-7 ATS when they lose on the road. In other words, when the Wizards lose, they don't cover either when away from home! As for the Pelicans, the average margin of their 8 home wins this season is 11 points and I expect another double digit win as they are in full-on revenge mode for this one. The Pelicans have been swept in each of the past two seasons by the Wizards and they want to avoid that same fate this season by coming up with a huge win here. I expect them to do just that! Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more this season. Look for the Pelicans to improve to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in home games with a posted total of 230 points or more this season. Payback revenge game on tap here and the half-dozen points means a very manageable line for what should be a home blowout. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-28-18 | Syracuse +5.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #737 Wednesday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (+) @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:15 ET - Coming into the season I had Syracuse ranked much higher than Ohio State. So far this season the Orange have underachieved while the Buckeyes overachieved. The result is that Ohio State is ranked and Syracuse unranked heading into this match-up. Keep in mind, the Orange just got back senior guard Frank Howard and he had 5 assists in 19 minutes in his first game back. Syracuse, with Howard back, is a much different team. The Orange have plenty of talent and plenty of veteran leadership to beat a team like the Buckeyes on Ohio State's home floor. That said, the fact that we're getting about a half-dozen points here too make this one a "must play" in my book. Syracuse is well-rested here and they've gone 6-2 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they enter a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Buckeyes are 8-14 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s and Ohio State is an ugly 11-18 ATS their last 29 non-conference games. Big time line value with the underdog Orange in this one. 10* SYRACUSE |
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11-27-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 85-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #510 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9:05 ET - While the Lakers are off a loss and looking to bounce back here, they are still without guard Rajon Rondo. Playing without your starting point guard is never fun but this is particularly true when you are on the road at Denver! Not only is Denver a tough place to play, the Nuggets have revenge on their minds here and they are likely to have guard Gary Harris back in the lineup for this one. Even if they don't, other stepped up in his absence Saturday as the Nuggets upset the Thunder at Oklahoma City. Denver is back on track with 3 straight wins and they are hungry for revenge here against LeBron James and company! The home team is 7-1 SU (and ATS!) in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Also, the Nuggets are 4-0 SU and ATS this season when they enter a game on an "under" streak of 3 or more games. The fact is that Denver has been playing very well on the defensive end and that is noteworthy here as the Lakers are having issues with turnovers in recent games. The Lakers are just 5-9 ATS their last 14 games and this is not the time or place for them to turn things around! 10* DENVER |
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11-27-18 | Virginia Tech v. Penn State +2.5 | Top | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #518 Tuesday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - The public will be backing the ranked road team in this one. However, the home dog should prove to be the correct side. The Hokies are still without guard Chris Clarke and Virginia Tech is facing an angry Penn State team here. The Nittany Lions are off a low-scoring loss to Bradley where they shot horribly and, as a result, they can't wait to get back on the floor. Keep in mind, Penn State won 26 games last season and they are being undervalued here in this spot. The Nittany Lions are 13-7 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, PSU is 5-1 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. In road games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points, the Hokies are a long-term 9-20 SU and that includes 2-4 SU in recent seasons. The home team has won 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams and I look for that trend to continue here as Virginia Tech has enjoyed particular success with 3-pointers (41.4% this season) but they're facing a Nittany Lions perimeter defense that has surrendered just 22.9% from beyond the arc this season! 10* PENN STATE |
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11-26-18 | Wolves v. Cavs OVER 215 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The over is a perfect 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams and that includes a perfect 4-0 in meetings in Cleveland. Both these teams have trended under this month and that has resulted in this total being set lower than it should be. The Cavaliers have averaged 119 points per game their last two games. However, the Cavaliers have also given up an average of 112 points per game their last five games. The Timberwolves have played at a fast pace in recent games and also Minnesota has averaged 93 field goal attempts per game their last 7 road games. The Cavaliers have averaged 95 field goal attempts per game their last 3 games. Look for a good pace to this game and plenty of points as the long term high-scoring trend in this series continues. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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11-26-18 | Nebraska v. Clemson UNDER 139 | Top | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #716 Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Clemson Tigers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 7 ET - This total opened up at a 137 and has climbed as high as 139 as of early Monday morning. The fact is that both of these teams play strong defense and I feel we're getting excellent value with the under here. Both teams showed great improvement on the defensive end last season and that has continued into this season. The Cornhuskers are allowing just 51.7 points per game on shooting of 32.4% from the field and 22.4% from beyond the arc. The Tigers are off a rare poor game defensively against Creighton but this was preceded by Clemson allowing an average of only 57 points per game in their 4 prior games. When these teams most recently met (2 years ago) they combined for only 118 points and I expect another "grinder" here in this one Monday. The Cornhuskers are on short rest and have gone under in 7 of their last 10 when playing with just 1 day of rest between games. Nebraska has stayed under in 5 of their 6 games this season. Also, the past two seasons the Huskers played 5 road games that had a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. The result of those games from a totals standpoint was 0 overs and 5 unders! Look for that trend to remain perfect here. 10* UNDER the total in Clemson |
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11-25-18 | Drexel v. Bowling Green OVER 151 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Bowling Green Falcons vs Drexel Dragons @ 3 ET - First off I am aware of the injury situation with Dragons guard Kurk Lee but he truly hasn't played much of a factor this season as he has totaled only 12 minutes on the floor in Drexel's last 3 games. As a result, he is not much of a factor in terms of this total and the Dragons are on a 3-0 run to the over. Also, Drexel gave up 78 points to the Falcons last season in Philly and now they face them at Bowling Green which means even more points likely here! That's because the Falcons are happy to be back on their home floor and they're also coming off a loss where they had a rare poor night and scored just 67 points. Prior to that low-scoring defeat, BG had scored at least 75 points in 4 of their first 5 games plus they had reached the 80 point mark 3 times. The Dragons have averaged 98 points their last 3 games and yes one of those games was against a very weak foe but, even taking that out of the equation Drexel has averaged 87.5 points their last two games. The over is a long-term 14-6 when the Dragons are off a non-conference game. The over is 15-9 when Bowling Green is off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Also the Falcons are 14-7 to the over when facing a team that is averaging 77 points or more per game. In other words, they have not been (and still are not) afraid to get into "run and gun" type games with teams like Drexel and that is what I expect here. 10* OVER the total in Bowling Green |
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11-23-18 | Magic v. Nuggets OVER 214 | Top | 87-112 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Nuggets vs Orlando Magic @ 9:05 ET - The Magic are off a low-scoring loss at Toronto Tuesday as they had a horrific shooting night. Orlando entered that game red hot from the floor in their 6 prior games and scoring an average of 119 points per game during that stretch. That said, the low-scoring loss was surprising and I expect the Magic to get right back on track here (offensively) in this one. The Nuggets may have trouble staying fully focused here as they are off a win at Minnesota and have a game at Oklahoma City on deck. That said, this is a "sandwich game" against an Eastern Conference foe so it is unlikely to bring out the best in terms of defensive intensity. In fact 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams have gone over the total (including 2 for 2 at Denver). The over is 17-7 when the Nuggets enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. The over is 20-11 when Denver is off a divisional game. Also, the over is 51-26 when the Nuggets face a team that is scoring an average of 106 points or more per game. 10* OVER the total in Denver |
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11-23-18 | Northern Iowa v. Old Dominion -7 | Top | 65-72 | Push | 0 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #534 Friday 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (-) vs Northern Iowa Panthers @ 7 ET - Had my eyes on this match-up all along as these teams were in a tournament in the Virgin Islands and did end up meeting already this season in that tourney. Old Dominion lost that game by a single point to Northern Iowa even though the Monarchs had a dozen more shot attempts from the field than the Panthers in that one. The point is that it was simply an "off" shooting night for Old Dominion but now they get a chance at revenge and the opportunity comes on their home floor where the Monarchs are fully capable of a dominating effort. Yes, Old Dominion lost some talent from last season's very successful team but they've "reloaded" well and Northern Iowa lost much more and certainly has been in a bit of a stagnant cycle in recent seasons. Note also that the Panthers are 9-21 ATS as an underdog, 5-18 ATS in road games, 3-12 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 120s, and 5-18 ATS when off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less! Long-term the Monarchs are 45-9 SU as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Couple that with Northern Iowa's poor ATS record as an underdog (plus the strong situational edge here) and you can see why a big home win (and cover!) is in the forecast for this one! 10* OLD DOMINION |
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11-21-18 | Pelicans +4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Wednesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers will be the popular choice here as they are yet to lose a game at home this season. However, the Pelicans are 4-0 SU in games against Eastern Conference foes this season and that includes 3-0 SU versus Atlantic Division opponents. Those wins including a double digit victory for New Orleans at Toronto last week. The Pelicans have been red hot with their shooting and the 76ers certainly haven't been known for their defense this season. The Sixers added Jimmy Butler in the huge deal with Minnesota but the Markelle Fultz saga continues and J.J. Redick is listed as questionable for tonight's game. Philly is 1-6 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more in their prior game. The Pelicans are 4-1 SU (and ATS) when off a win by a double digit margin this season. Rolling with momentum after knocking off the Spurs Monday, the Pelicans get the job done again on the road at Philly Wednesday. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-21-18 | CS-Fullerton +4.5 v. Hofstra | Top | 71-80 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cal State Fullerton Titans (+) @ Hofstra Pride @ 7 ET - Though the Titans are all the way on the East Coast for this game they were already out east for a tournament in Myrtle Beach, SC that wrapped up over the weekend. That said, this is not too bad of a travel situation for Cal State Fullerton. I like the fact that the Titans have veteran leadership, strong guard play and are the better team defensively in comparison with Hofstra. The Pride have allowed 47.8% shooting in their games this season while the Titans have allowed only 36.1% from the field! Cal State Fullerton took Arizona State to double OT in their first game this season and also is battle-tested after games against Wake Forest and Central Florida in the just-completed Myrtle Beach tourney. The Pride have been a covering machine this season (4-0 ATS thus far) but I have not been impressed with their play on the defensive end thus far and that will prove to be their undoing here. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Pride are on a 16-27 ATS run. Hofstra also is on an ugly 4-12 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. I am expecting an upset here but will gladly grab the points. 10* CAL STATE FULLERTON |
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11-20-18 | Bradley +3 v. SMU | Top | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #757 Tuesday 10* Top Play Bradley Braves (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 6 ET in the Cancun Challenge - Riviera Division at Hard Rock Arena @ Riviera Maya Cancun - The Braves finally turned the corner last season in their multi-season rebuild. Now they return most of their key talent from last year and it has already been a 3-1 start to this season. Look for Bradley to stay hot here as SMU is dealing with some injury issues and the Mustangs just haven't looked as strong early this season as the Braves have. SMU is allowing 44.4% from the field this season and 39.2% from three point land. Bradley is allowing just 41.4% from the field and only 30.9% from three point land. In a neutral court game with a posted total between 130 and 134.5 points, the Braves are 7-3 ATS. The Mustangs are 19-36 ATS in neutral court games. SMU is also a long-term 28-40 ATS in November games. The early line move has been toward the Mustangs here and I am going contrarian and grabbing the value on the other side with the mid-major school, the Braves. 10* BRADLEY |
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11-16-18 | Jazz v. 76ers -3 | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - Both teams are looking to bounce back but the Jazz are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Utah is off an unbelievable 118-68 loss at Dallas. Though they are hungry to get back on track after that, the Jazz now visit Philly where the 76ers are also in bounce back mode. Philadelphia just dropped Jimmy Butler's debut game at Orlando Wednesday despite having a double digit lead heading into the 4th quarter! Now Butler makes his home debut for the Sixers. Not only is Philly 7-0 SU at home this season, they're going to take advantage of a Jazz team that has struggled to score on the road in 3 straight games! In Utah's last 3 road games they are averaging just 84 points per game and they've been held to 37% shooting from the field. The 76ers are averaging 118 points per game at home this season! In other words, there is a significant home/road dichotomy factor in looking at these two teams. Though the Jazz will be looking to get back on track they are actually 12-20 ATS when off an upset loss as a favorite. Also, Philly is a long-term 40-22 ATS in non-conference games and the Sixers are a long-term 60-33 ATS in home games! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-16-18 | St. John's v. Rutgers +3 | Top | 84-65 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #730 Friday 10* Top Play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+) vs St John's Red Storm @ 7 ET - The Red Storm are getting a lot of love from the betting markets early this morning and that doesn't come as a big surprise considering they've enjoyed long-term success against the Scarlet Knights and that includes games at Rutgers. Of course this little push by the markets has resulted in even more line value here with the home dog Scarlet Knights. The key here is that Rutgers has started the season really hot with their shooting and they get this game at home. St John's and the Scarlet Knights have played roughly equal teams so far in terms of strength of schedule so certainly one should not discount what Rutgers has done early this season. They are off to a red hot start with their shooting including from three point land. The Scarlet Knights also have a big edge in terms of size in this match-up. Rebounding deficits have been a recurring them for the Red Storm in recent seasons and that is likely to continue to be an issue in this match-up. Plus the aggressive Knights (added some talented scorers coming into this season) can attack the rim easier when there are not big guys down there. The size issue for St John's has been exasperated even more because they were counting on 6'9 250 Sedee Keita for key minutes in the rotation but he is now out with a knee injury. The Red Storm are 10-25 ATS in Friday games long-term and are 7-12 ATS in recent seasons when off a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1 ATS when off a game where they scored 80 points or more plus they are 10-2 ATS in non-conference games. I like the hot home team with the bigger bodies and with the extra line value. 10* RUTGERS |
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11-15-18 | Ohio State -120 v. Creighton | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach CBB Game #507 Thursday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) @ Creighton Bluejays @ 7 ET - The Buckeyes line has moved low enough (from an opener of -2.5) to where now it makes sense to look at the money line (as low as -120 as of 11 AM ET) for those of you whom have access to it. The markets are liking Creighton in early betting as, of course, the Bluejays have a long history of success when playing on their home floor. Also, in true "zig zag theory" fashion, the markets are backing the 0-2 ATS Bluejays over the 2-0 ATS Buckeyes figuring that Creighton is "due" for a cover. We'll fade that theory here as Ohio State is simply playing great basketball on both sides of the floor. Their confidence is sky high after they went into Cincinnati and played stellar defense to ruin opening night for the Bearcats in their newly renovated ($87 million worth) Fifth Third Arena. The Buckeyes then got the job done again with their defense in their very next game as their high pressure defense led to plenty of quick transition points. Ohio State also knocked down 15 three-pointers in that game, a big win over IPFW. Granted IUPU-Fort Wayne is a step down in level of competition to say the least but that 107-61 blowout win goes a long way in giving a young Buckeyes team a ton of confidence. Also, keep in mind the Bluejays are also a young team this season and Creighton has won both their games early this season but in much less impressive fashion. Also, the Bluejays are an ugly 5-14 ATS as an underdog the past two seasons. Ohio State is 13-4 SU in November games. Also, the Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in road games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. 10* OHIO STATE |
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11-14-18 | 76ers -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Jimmy Butler's first game with the 76ers. The fact it is on the road is even better as it is keeping this line at a reasonable number. I look for Philly to win this game in blowout fashion. The Sixers now have a "Big 3" with Butler joining Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. This team is poised to be a force in the East to be reckoned with and Butler is likely to "go off" tonight and have a massive performance as he is thrilled to finally be out of Minnesota. The Magic should provide the perfect "punching bag" as Orlando. Entering Wednesday, the Magic are just 5-8 SU in their last 13 games. Orlando has just 3 ATS wins in its last 10 games. The Magic are 11-23 ATS when off a divisional game. Orlando is also a horrible 32-56 ATS in home games including 2-6 ATS this season. The 76ers are 25-13 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog and also 28-13 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Offensively the Sixers are averaging nearly 10 points more per game than Orlando. Defensively Philly is allowing just 43% from the field while the Magic are allowing 46% from the field. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-14-18 | Michigan +7.5 v. Villanova | Top | 73-46 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Wednesday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 6:30 ET - This a rematch of last year's national championship game. The Wildcats defeated the Wolverines handily by 17 points. However, just how solid was that victory really? Certainly some credit is owed to the Villanova defense for it but the fact that Michigan only made 3 of 23 three pointers certainly had something to do with it too. The Wildcats outscored the Wolverines by 21 points from 3-point land as the Cats made 10 three points in the game! The point is that the game could have gone either way were it not for the disparity from beyond the arc. Now, this season, each of the teams are a little younger and less experienced but one could argue that Villanova lost more from their roster than did Michigan. I have plenty of respect for coach Jay Wright and his Wildcats but the Wolverines are led by a great coach of their own in John Beilein. Michigan, and Beilein, have had their sites set on this rematch. So much so in fact that they were down big at the half against Holy Cross in their most recent game. Of course the Wolverines responded and blew out the Crusaders in the second half but, the point is, this game has been circled in red ever since the schedules come out. Perhaps the Wolverines do fall short here but, if they do I expect the loss to be by only a bucket or two. Great value with the big dog here and Michigan is 12-6 ATS their last 18 as an underdog. I'll grab the generous points being offered. 10* MICHIGAN |
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11-13-18 | Hornets v. Cavs +7 | Top | 89-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Tuesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Of course the Cavs 1-11 SU record on the season makes them look very uninviting to the betting markets. The result is line value in a situation like this because they have been a different team since the coaching change. The Cavaliers last 3 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of only 4 points. Cleveland has been playing better on the defensive end and has allowed an average of just 99 points per game in their last 3 losses. The Hornets are in a tough scheduling spot as they are off a big win at Detroit and have a big revenge game with the 76ers on deck. Charlotte just recently lost to Philly by a single point and can't help but be anticipating the big match-up with newly acquired Jimmy Butler and the Sixers. The Hornets are also having to deal with a revenge-minded Cavs team here. Cleveland trailed Charlotte by just 7 points at the half in their meeting earlier this month but then got blown out by 32 by the time the final horn sounded. Time for some payback here and the Cavaliers improve to 3-0 ATS this season when playing with revenge. 10* CLEVELAND |
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11-13-18 | Wisconsin -120 v. Xavier | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) @ Xavier Musketeers @ 6:30 ET - The first viewpoint on this would be with consideration to how strong Xavier was last season and the fact they are a home underdog here, they simply "must" be the play here. Of course the contrarian viewpoint is to not be fooled! The fact is that the Badgers are a much more cohesive unit right now plus playing with revenge here plus will take advantage of an Xavier team dealing with a major transition period. Not only did the Musketeers lose head coach Chris Mack, Xavier also lost key players Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura. That said, they're going to have trouble with a Badgers team that is much healthier now than they were last season when their backcourt was ravaged by injuries. Also, Wisconsin still has big man Ethan Happ and he creates a troublesome match-up for the Musketeers. Another key variable in favor of the Badgers here is that the injuries last season helped younger players get some valuable playing time which will now pay dividends this season. This line is very close to a pick'em and the Badgers have gone 12-1 SU the past two seasons when off a game where they scored 80 points or more. Also, Xavier is 0-2 ATS this season and also went 0-2 ATS the past two seasons when the Musketeers were at home with a line ranging from pick'em to +3. Xavier will get better as the season goes on but they're going to endure some growing pains early on and the Badgers take advantage on Tuesday. 10* WISCONSIN |
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11-09-18 | Hornets v. 76ers OVER 225 | Top | 132-133 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The last time these two teams met the game stayed well under the total but the pacing of the game should have sent it flying over the total. The problem, for over players, in that game was that both teams shot under 40% from the field. Even with that the game totaled 208 points and I feel the situation here is conducive to an over. The set up here is ideal for plenty of points. The 76ers, after a very sloppy game against Brooklyn, cleaned up their game and also played solid defense in a win at Indiana Wednesday. Now I would not be surprised to see them somewhat complacent here after finally notching their first road win of the season. As for the Hornets, they roll into this game off back to back wins. While it is true that the competition certainly was not fierce. It is also true that Charlotte has been able to build up confidence by getting those two victories. Taking a look at the Hornets last 6 games, the one poor shooting effort was against Philly but Charlotte has shot 49.2% from the field in the other 5 games combined. As for the Sixers, they are averaging 115 points per game at home this season. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Philly's games versus teams with a winning record this season. As for the Hornets, the over is 3-1 this season in their games as an underdog. The lone under was the aforementioned 105-103 loss at Philly. Charlotte and the Sixers make up for that here with a high-scoring shootout! 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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11-09-18 | Indiana State v. Green Bay | Top | 78-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Friday 10* Top Play Indiana State Sycamores (pick'em) @ Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 4:30 ET - UWGB is attracting some betting attention here because they are off a blowout win in their season opener while the Sycamores are off a blowout loss in their season opener. However, there is much more than meets the eye at first glance in terms of this match-up. First off, the Phoenix took advantage of playing a Division III school as they crushed Wisconsin-Lutheran to open up the season. Secondly, Indiana State played a Ball State team that is expected to be on of the top teams in the MAC. The Sycamores, even though they were on the road for that game too, were tied at the half with the Cardinals and also were down by just 7 at about the mid-way point of the 2nd half. After a disappointing effort on defense in the 2nd half of that game, the Sycamores are hell-bent on rectifying the situation here. Also, Indiana State was at a size disadvantage at Ball State but now it is the Sycamores whom will have the size edge in this match-up with UWGB. Also, this is game is an early start Friday due to a conflict with the Volleyball schedule for the Phoenix and so the game goes at 3:30 ET. A day game on campus isn't going to help the atmosphere here for UWGB either. With the Sycamores not playing again until the 14th, they are highly motivated to atone for their poor 2nd half performance at Ball State. The Phoenix are 2-6 ATS in Friday games and I look for the Sycamores to improve to 3-0 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s in recent seasons. 10* INDIANA STATE |
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11-07-18 | 76ers +2.5 v. Pacers | Top | 100-94 | Win | 102 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Wednesday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are off an embarrassing loss at Brooklyn where Philly turned the ball over 27 times compared to just 9 for the Nets! Philadelphia has had two days off since then and can't wait to get back on the floor and atone for that performance. As for the Pacers, though they've been winning more regularly than the Sixers have of late, they are having shooting issues. Indiana has struggled at the free throw line this season and they've also made just 42% of their shots from the field in their last 3 home games! The Pacers are 0-3-1 ATS this season when off a home game. Also, Indiana is an ugly 1-4 ATS in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. The 76ers are a long-term 49-26 ATS in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, Philadelphia is 3-1 SU when off a loss this season. The public and betting markets are likely to back the Pacers here since the Sixers still have not won a road game this season. I am fading the masses, as per usual, because Philly got demolished by the Nets in their most recent game. As a result, they are incredibly focused for this game and the finally get a road win on the board. Now, though I do expect an outright upset, I am grabbing the available points here as the Pacers are only 3-2 SU in their last 5 games and 2 of those SU wins came by 2 points or less. In other words, getting 2.5 points or more here could prove to be very valuable. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-05-18 | Rockets v. Pacers OVER 213 | Top | 98-94 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets now have James Harden back and, after shaking off some rust in his first game back, he'll be ready to go strong tonight. Keep in mind that was a crazy low-scoring result at Chicago in Houston's most recent game and it is helping to give us line value here. The fact is that the game was on pace for 220 points at half but then the Bulls scored just 7 points in the 3rd quarter. Some credit is due to the Rockets defense but it was also a lot of horrific shooting from Chicago that led to that result. The rest of the game the Bulls scored at least 25 points in each of the other 3 quarters. We all know what this Houston offense is capable of and I expect them to start clicking tonight as the Pacers D may not be at its strongest in a non-conference affair like this. Additionally, we all know Indiana can light up the scoreboard - particularly when at home - and the result of the above is that we should see a shootout between these non-conference foes Monday. The Rockets first 3 road games had all totaled at least 227 points. That "ugly" win at Chicago was Houston's 1st under in 4 road games this season. As for the Pacers, they are averaging 109.5 points per game at home this season and are knocking down 42.6% of their threes when at home! The Rockets have scored 118 points in each of their last two games versus the Pacers. Look for more of the same here as I expect, per all of the above, that each team gets to the 110 range in this one! 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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11-01-18 | Nuggets v. Cavs OVER 222 | Top | 110-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - Yes, the Nuggets are in a back to back and off an OT game. Yes, the Cavaliers have a new head coach so "focus" could change for the team. However, lets address those two factors because this total has dropped significantly early this morning and this has led to strong line value on the over. First off, the Cavs first game with Larry Drew instead of Tyronn Lue calling the shots resulted in a win and Cleveland's defense did create turnovers. However, the Cavaliers still allowed their opponent (the Hawks) to make a high percentage of their shots. In other words perhaps the aggressive defense did result in transition points for the Cavs but it also resulted in more open looks for the opponents shooters when they did get past the over-aggressive defenders. The fact is that the Cavaliers game with Atlanta still totaled 250 points and I feel this game with Denver is going to be a shootout as well. The Nuggets defense could be lacking here after putting a ton of effort into the win over the Bulls last night. Also, note that Denver is 14-7 to the over in games against Central Division opponents in recent seasons. Also, over this same time frame, the Nuggets are 46-23 to the over BOTH against teams that allow 106 points or more per game and also teams that score 106 points or more per game. Of course the Cavs fall into both of those categories this season. Additionally, the Cavaliers are on an 11-2 run to the over when off a game where they scored 130 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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10-31-18 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 210.5 | Top | 107-101 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Grim Reaper ESPN Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The Pacers are off a rare poor shooting game and will bounce back strong here. Even though Indiana is on the road for this one, the Pacers actually have averaged 117.5 points per game in their last two road games. On the season Indiana is hitting 50% from the field overall and 43% from three point land. They'll take advantage of a Knicks team that is allowing 110.7 points per game this season on 47% shooting from the field including 38% from beyond the arc. Although New York's defense leaves a lot to be desired, the Knicks are averaged 110.5 points per game at home this season. I feel we're getting great line value here considering both teams are off a day of rest, the Pacers should be burning up the nets tonight with hot shooting, and New York score very well at home. All these factors combined with a total in the 210 range means excellent line value here! The Pacers are 3-0 to the over this season when off a non-conference game. The Knicks are 2-0 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. Indiana is 3-0 to the over in Eastern Conference match-ups this season. The over is 2-0 in the last two meetings between these teams. That means we have combined edges here of 10-0 / 100% PERFECT supporting this selection! Look for a shootout in this one. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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10-30-18 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 112-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - Kawhi Leonard sat for the Raptors last night (just for rest) but that is no excuse for getting blown out at Milwaukee as the Bucks were without their star player as well as Giannis Antetokounmpo did end up going in concussion protocol. Also, the Sixers Joel Embiid did play in Philly's first back to back this season and I expect he will do so again here after Philadelphia blew out the Hawks in the 2nd half last night and they were able to rest starters in the 4th quarter. Embiid clearly was "saving up" for this game as he had his lowest point total and rebound total of the season in last night's game. Milwaukee, Toronto, Detroit, and Boston are the top 4 teams in the NBA East right now based on records. Why do I bring that up? Because the Sixers have already lost to Boston, Detroit (in OT thriller), and the Bucks. Philadelphia has this game at Toronto circled in blood as a result! The 76ers know they need to prove they can be a quality team in the East as so far they have looked like the weakest of all the aforementioned teams and Philly is supposed to be a legit contender in the East this season. With Ben Simmons playing very well, Markelle Fultz off a strong game, and Embiid having (in my opinion) saved up for this one, I am expecting a Sixers upset tonight but certainly like the value with the points. By the way, Raptors only had 2 players score 11 points or more last night while the 76ers had 6 players score at least 11 points last night. Balanced scoring certainly is an important factor and Philly was all over the boards last night too. They are hungry and in need of a statement win. The Raptors are on an 8-18 ATS run in Tuesday games while the Sixers are on a 13-7 ATS run in Tuesday games. Also, the 76'ers are 46-24 ATS their last 70 games versus teams that score an average of 106 points or more per game. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-29-18 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 222 | Top | 109-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Yes, I am aware of the head injury suffered by Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks but he is NOT in the concussion protocol and I just do not see him missing a huge game like this. The last two undefeated teams in the league are meeting in Milwaukee tonight in what should be a fantastic game with plenty of points scored! The over went 3-0 in meetings between these teams last season. Also, after I got burned on the Raptors over in their most recent game (only went over the closing number but should have finished with 240 points) I have had my eyes on this match-up. Each team, compared to the opening number at least, has stayed under in each of its last two games. However, the pacing of the game has been conducive to an over for each of those games and also each of these teams started the season with 4 straight overs. The first total that popped up on this game was 223 but it has dropped to 221.5 since then and there is huge value here with the over in my opinion. The Bucks have allowed an average of 101 shots per game their last 4 games! The Raptors have allowed an average of 95 shots per game their last 3 games! On the other end of the floor, of course, both teams can fill it up! The Bucks are averaging 119.3 points per game this season and Toronto is averaging 116.8 points per game this season. The over is a long-term 37-25 when the Raptors are off a game where they scored 115 points or more. Also, the over is 20-10 in Toronto's games when they have two days of rest between games. The over is a long-term 47-25 in Bucks games played in the first half of a season. This should be a VERY entertaining shootout tonight! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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10-26-18 | Mavs v. Raptors OVER 225.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors are undefeated on the season. The Mavericks are coming off a game where they let a 26 point lead slip away. Toronto can score on anybody but has also allowed triple digits in all five of their games this season. Dallas is allowing an insane 50% from three point land this season and the Raptors are allowing just a shade under 40% from beyond the arc this season. The point is that there should be plenty of points in this one. The Mavericks got burned for taking the foot off the gas in their most recent game while the Raptors are averaging 117 points per game this season and have to be licking their chops at attacking the struggling Mavs defense. Dallas is allowing 119.2 points per game this season. Both teams play at a quick pace with the Mavericks averaging 92.5 field goal attempts per game and the Raptors not far behind at around 90. Couple those stats with the fact that both teams have had trouble defending the 3-point line this season as well as the fact that this total, as of early this morning, has dropped big from its opener, and you have a great situation here in terms of value. Toronto's most recent game stayed under the total but, prior to that, the over was 4-0 in Raptors games this season. The over is 5-2 in Mavs games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The over is 9-5 in Raptors home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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10-24-18 | Jazz +2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 100-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - This play is contrarian from the standpoint that, on the surface, it looks real easy to take the Rockets at home off a loss and lay a very small number in doing so. However, the problem with Houston right now is they have a cluster of injuries impacting them and also Chris Paul is suspended for one more game and not returning until Friday's match-up with the Clippers. Also, the Rockets are catching the Jazz at the wrong time. Not only does Utah have playoff revenge from last season, the Jazz also enter this game off back to back losses and very fired up for this game. They blew their recent game against the defending champion Warriors and then, after that debacle in the Warriors game, they clearly looked right past Memphis as they were looking ahead to this opportunity for post-season revenge. Now the day has arrived and it is time to "put up or shut up" and I expect the Jazz to "put up" here! Utah has stayed mostly static with their roster and that particularly helps them in a situation like this where the Rockets are having to mix and match pieces. Also note that the Jazz have only failed to cover 24 of their last 67 games when facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game. As for Houston, they are on a 10-18 ATS run when playing with 2 days of rest between games. 10* UTAH |
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10-23-18 | 76ers -1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 132-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Detroit is 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS on the season. They've squeaked by Brooklyn and Chicago. Neither the Nets or Bulls are expected to post much of a threat in terms of NBA supremacy this season! The point is that the Pistons are now finally facing a strong team and Philly has some confidence back after back to back wins have followed an opening game disaster versus the Celtics. Yes, the 76ers have also faced a weak schedule since that game one loss but the fact that they've at least, unlike the Pistons, faced one quality opponent, is reason enough to believe that they've got a better shot at getting into the win column in this one. The Pistons have yet to truly be battle tested. Even though Simmons (back) is an issue for the Sixers, they played most of the last game without him which allowed for a good "test run" and they'll be even better prepared tonight after JJ Redick went off in his absence and had a huge game. Keep in mind too that Detroit big man Andre Drummond is dealing with the flu which certainly won't help the Pistons as they try to contain Joel Embiid inside! Philly won all 4 meetings last season and each win came by at least 5 points. The 76ers are on a 21-9 ATS run when playing with 2 days of rest between games and this is their first such opportunity this season. The Sixers will make the most of it! The Pistons have a divisional game on deck (Cavs) and also are off a divisional win (Bulls) and Detroit is 11-20 ATS their last 31 when off a divisional game. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-22-18 | Magic v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 93-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - This total is dropping early this morning which is understandable given the fact that each of these teams has trended early this season as well as the fact that the Celtics are known for defense. However, the drop on the total is also a key to additional value here because I just don't foresee Boston giving a real huge effort on the defensive end in this game. It is a non-divisional match-up against a bad team. These types of match-ups, as a general rule, don't tend to bring out the best in terms of intensity on defense. Also, the Magic have added confidence from scoring 115 points and shooting lights out in a 1 point loss at Philly Saturday. Boston is off a tight win Saturday over the Knicks and this will now be the 3rd game in 4 nights for each of these teams. That also can mean some tired legs on defense. The over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in Boston. The Magic have scored at least 103 points in 2 of their last 3 meetings with the Celtics and at least 104 points in 2 of their 3 games this season. Orlando should ride momentum from the hot shooting at Philly but their defense is poor. That said, look for the Magic to get to the 105 range in this game but they are forecast to lose by double digits for a reason and this one should fly well over the total as the Celtics enjoy a breakout game on offense against a sub-par defense. The over is 22-15 in Orlando's games against Atlantic Division opponents and the over is 26-17 in the Celtics games against Southeast Division opponents. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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10-21-18 | Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 133-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 6:05 ET - The Cavaliers burned me on Friday night but I'll get it back here. I had the Timberwolves (-8 or -8.5) and they blew a 21-point lead and won the game by only 8 for a loss or push for my clients. Now we get a chance to fade a line move here as everyone is piling on Cleveland for their home opener. This is not a very good Cavs team. Now I am certainly not saying that the Hawks are anything special either but they are now getting a lot more points than they should be considering they are 0-2 SU just like the Cavaliers are so they will be every bit as hungry. Keep in mind they have a history of playing very well here too as they've covered each of their last 8 trips to Cleveland. Coming into this season, Atlanta's projected win total was very close to that of the Cavaliers and there is just not a huge difference right now between these two teams. I also like the fact that the Cavs have covered (to the closing line) each of their first two games but each by just half a point. Their luck runs out here as they will be doing good just to win this game let alone cover the inflated spread. The Cavaliers are on a 61-84 ATS run as a favorite. Cleveland is also 39-58 ATS in home games. Also, when off a non-conference games, the Cavs are an ugly 25-42 ATS. 10* ATLANTA |
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10-19-18 | Cavs v. Wolves -8 | Top | 123-131 | Push | 0 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #710 Friday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Both the Cavs and Wolves were outscored at the 3-point line in their season opening losses. The difference tonight in terms of whom bounces back in Game Two of the new season has a lot to do with the home floor. The Cavaliers are unlikely to fix their outside shooting woes here. Their problems were evident in a bit of a disjointed game at Toronto where they found themselves down 20 points. As for Minnesota's game at San Antonio, they got very little from Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler didn't contribute a lot until he was involved with all of the Timberwolves last 14 points. So if Towns doesn't foul out, Butler carries over momentum from his late game play at SA, and the Wolves also don't get outscored by 15 points from beyond the arc then what happens? I'll tell you what happens. This game should turn into an absolute home blowout. We're getting extra line value here because the Cavs snuck in the back door for a late cover or push while the Wolves just missed covering their first game. Now this line is down from where it should be. Keep in mind the Wolves crushed the Cavs here by 28 points last year and Cleveland comes into this season projected to finish the year 20 games under .500 (sans LeBron James) while the Timberwolves are projected to be a winning team in the tougher Western Conference (per win totals from odds makers before the season). The Wolves are 9-4 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Cavs are 11-33 ATS when off a loss by a double digit margin! Blowout time here. 10* MINNESOTA |
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10-18-18 | Bulls v. 76ers -11 | Top | 108-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers go from playing the best team in the Eastern Conference to now facing one of the worst. Philly also goes from playing on the road in a tough venue in Boston to playing at home for their own rowdy fans. Especially with this game being their home opener, this game has blowout written all over it after the 76ers had such a tough game from the 2nd quarter on in their opening night loss Tuesday. Philadelphia is 27-15 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, the 76ers are a long-term 56-30 ATS in home games. The Bulls are on a 28-57 SU run in road games and when the Sixers win as a favorite they normally cover. The 76ers are on a 47-19 SU run as a favorite and they've gotten the cash in 38 of those 47 wins. With advantages all over the floor (especially with Bulls missing Lauri Markkanen) this one turns into a home blowout. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-17-18 | Bucks v. Hornets OVER 217 | Top | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - Interesting match-up here with each team having a new head coach. I expect this to lead to plenty of points here as a pair of former Spurs assistant coaches square off. It is Mike Budenholzer for the Bucks and James Borrego for the Hornets. Milwaukee is going to be emphasizing the 3-point shot this season and they've added some key pieces relating to that and I expect to see plenty of threes fired up by Milwaukee tonight. However, the Bucks also can attack the paint as Charlotte no longer has Dwight Howard in the middle and the Hornets are definitely going toward more of a small ball lineup. It all equates to plenty of points here in the season opener as we should see a good tempo in this one. The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and also a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times they've met in Charlotte. Additionally, in games played in the first half of a season, Milwaukee has gone 43-23 to the over their last 66. Look for that trend to add another one on the high side Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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10-16-18 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Celtics won 7 of 9 meetings with the Sixers last year. Boston has also won 9 straight home games against Philly. Yet the line on this season opening game opened up at just a 5. You know where I am going here as this is a perfect example of what my contrarian picks are all about. While Boston at home looks enticing it should prove out that Philly was the right side in this one! Keep in mind, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward are back for Boston but are returning from injuries. Also, the 76ers Markelle Fultz worked hard on his shot in the off-season. He adds value to a team loaded with talent including Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and JJ Redick. Look for the highly motivated Sixers to prove to be the much hungrier team in this one and they are making some changes on defense in this one that should help them be stronger in the paint against the Celtics. Only time will tell but I feel an upset looms tonight and, keep in mind, the last 4 meetings between these teams featured a 76ers win and 3 Sixers losses but all of those Philly defeats came by a margin of 5 or less points. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
Easy as ABC - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - In Cavaliers games the home team has covered 8 of the last 11. Also, Cleveland is off of 3 straight losses but hasn't lost 4 straight games since a losing streak in early to mid-January. So you have to go back nearly 5 months to find the last time the Cavs have lost 4 in a row. I don't expect that to happen here either but am happy to grab the value with the points should Cleveland fall just short here. The Cavaliers, since the calendar turned from April to May, have shot much better when on their home floor EXCEPT for Game 3. Entering that Game 3, Cleveland had shot at least 47% from the field in all 5 games and the Cavs had averaged 113.8 points per game in their 5 prior home games. The Warriors have averaged only 102.5 points per game in their last 4 road games. Golden State is on a 15-27 ATS run against teams with a winning record and the Warriors are 10-23 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 37-14 SU when at home this season and also they've gone 5-3 SU in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. Even though the Cavaliers are down 3-0 in this series, the Game 1 loss was in OT and the Game 3 defeat was a tie game very late. That said, the available points here in a game that the Cavaliers will be desperate for - at home and looking to avoid an embarrassing sweep - I like the value of LeBron James and Company as a home dog. 10* CLEVELAND |