Im betting this is going to be Super Bowl that starts slowly from a offensive perspective and predict a first quarter that will be tightly played .This will see a much lower scorin game than the linesmkaers might expect. 

 Kansas City is on a 13-1-1 Under  against top tier rushing attacks averaging more than 4.7 RYPA.

Chiefs HC  Andy Reid is on 9-3 Under run vs. strong offenses scoring 27 PPG or more per game. 

Philadelphia is 21-12-1 Under the total in its last 34 playoff games.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games. are 57-28 UNDER since 2015 with the average combined score clicking in at 42.8 ppg,

The public really seems to like the over here as the overall  market according to the amount of bets made  shows a majority of betters on this being a higher scoring affair, but in contrarian fashion I will go against the public as I project a lower scoring affair that stays on the low side of the offering. In the L/12 national championship games the public has yet to cash with their assumptions going 0-11-1. Also despite of the public being on the over, the total has gone down from the opener of 46.5 to 45.5 which means smart money and not the public is moving this line.

Play under

Right off the bat Ill say that Im betting on positive regression from Vikings QB Sam Darnold, who is off a ugly performance vs the Lions where he went 18-of-41  for just 166 yards .Prior to that down effort , Darnold had an 18/2 TD/INT ratio over his previous seven games,  and is more than capable of getting back into a groove tonight in Glendale. Meanwhile, on the flipside, the Rams top gun QB Stafford owned a 71% completion rate with a 17/4 TD/INT this season and  less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket . His ability for  quick accurate  releases from this big time slinger will negate the Vikings blitz heavy pass rush. Both teams have the offensive weapons to make this a back and forth event that easily eclipses this total. Note: in the earlier meeting this season between these sides that ended a 30-20 final score, Stafford recorded four touchdown passes and a 73.53% completion rate .Minnesota games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 11-2 OVER L/13 and have seen a combined average score of 50.6 ppg scored. Kevin OConnell games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored.

Play over

Packers and Eagles faced off in Week 1in Brazil, with the Eagles winning by a  34-29 count.Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has gone against HC Matt LaFleur and the Packers twice and  he looked explosive in those games, winning 34-29 against Jordan Love and 40-33 against Aaron Rodgers. Hurts has played three playoff games in his career either at a neutral site or at home and he has scored 35, 31 and 38 pts respectively in the those  three tilts and another big output Im betting goes down today which will directly effect this score to go over the offered total.  Im also betting the QB Love will help his team put enough scores on the board to get us to the promised land. Note:Green Bay games against NFC East division opponents have seen a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored.Green Bay games revenging a loss against opponent havw seen a combined average of 58.2 ppg scored.Green Bay games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better are 6-0 OVER ) in the second half of the season have seen a combined average of 59.7 ppg scored. Philadelphia games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 8-1 OVER L/9 with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

Notre Dames offense stuttered vs Georgia despite of getting the victory and had 244 total yards and just 90 passing yards. and now  with star RB Love playing at less than 100% problems are brewing .  QB  Leonard  will not have play action on his side, and even if he did his downfield cogs are an inconsistent issue anyway. It must be noted that entering this season the Notre Dame  offensive line was a problem point and against this big physically imposing Penn State D, moving the chains once again looks like it will be a problem. Meanwhile, on the flipside, Penn State offense will also have tough sledding here vs Notre Dames 5th ranked D.  Penn State games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game have gone 5-0 since 2023 with the combined average ppg clicking in at 32.6 ppg. Penn State generated just 18.4 ppg.

These are two top-10 defenses by yards per play and Im betting both sides will not move the chains with impunity and instead a ground and pound type of affair will key this combined score on the low side of the Total. 

Play on the under

This is HC Dan Quinn 's regular-season finale at the Cowboys and he says he won't be resting any player . Washington wont  take the Cowboys lightly as they were beaten by them earlier this season. I know many pundits believe that  Dallas after getting hammered by the Eagles last time out, will just go through the motions, but I highly doubt it as their egos are bruised and pros dont like to be humiliated, so look for them to fight hard here in what could be a back and forth game that handily eclipses the total.  

The L/3 most recent meetings in this series have all eclipsed this offered total with a combined average of 54.3 ppg scored. Dallas is  16-1  Over in the last 17 home rematch games. Dallas is  12-3 to the OVER  L15 divisional home games.  Washington is 6-2 OVER  L8 vs .500  or  opposition.

Play over

NY GIANTS are 12-0 Under the total when coming off a win over AFC opp since 2016. Now in a huge letdown situation after their upset of Washington Im betting on major regression offensively. from the Giants, that will directly effect the combined score of this game to being a lower scoring sleep fest. With the Eagles resting key offensive stars Im betting we see a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the offered number.NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is  18-8 Under  as a single-digit underdog. NY Giants games in games where the line is +3 to -3  have gone under 8 straight times with a combined average of 31.4 ppg scored.

NFL  team like NYG against the total - after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 5-29 UNDER since 1983.

Play under

Atlanta Im betting will have their  3rd straight strong offensive  output with new QB Michael Penix Jr under center . In his first two starts the Falcons have averaged 29 points per game and my projections estimate another huge output vs the worst D in the NFL. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Bryce Young needs to make some kind of impact before the season ends and Im betting he will be primed to perform behind a offense that is improving and becoming more viable. Everything points to a higher scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

NFC SOUTH division tilts like this  have cashed to the over 9 of the L/10 times with a combined  average of 55.9 combined ppg going on the board. Carolina has gone 12-4 OVER this season and  Atlanta  have gone 13-4-1 to the OVER  as division home chalk  to 2016 , including 7-1 OVER  as home favs of -3 plus points

Play over.

The Steelers had 520 total  yards and 7.9 yards per play in the first meeting.  while the Bengals complied  375 yards and 6.6 yards per play in a 43-38 slugfest. I know the weather conditions wont be ideal here this week, (cold but dry as NO precipitation is expected), but the Bengals can light up the scoreboard  in any environmental condition and the Steelers Im betting can score in bunches  against a sub average Bengals D.

Note: Steelers expected QB Russell Wilson has gone over in 7 straight January games. 

Bengals are 8-0 OVER  L8 vs  .600 or better  opposition and  3-0 OVER on Saturday .

 Home underdogs like the Steelers playing on Saturdays are  9-1-1 OVER  L/9 seasons with a Total  of 42  to 50  point range. 

Play over

Both these teams are missing players on both sides of the ball,  but both still run aggressive offense schemes,  and both have lackluster defensive talent. With that said, Im betting on whatever personal is on the field alot of points will go on the board in what will highly likely be an  offensive slugfest. It must be noted that despite of missing their top QB North Texas enters this game  10th in yards per play and will once again attack with furor. The Mean Green have no choice but to score in bunches as their defense is atrocious. The same holds true with Texas State as in their L/3 games of the season averaged 49 ppg and on defense allowed 31 points per game. 

North Texas games in non-conference games are 11-2 OVER L/13 overall with a combined average of 75.7 ppg scored.

The game between North Texas and Texas State is set for clear skies with temperatures around 60°F. Light east-southeast winds at 4.5 mph will have minimal impact on play. Expect a fast-paced game with no precipitation or humidity concerns, ideal conditions for both passing and scoring opportunities.

Play over

LATE STEAM 

Notre Dames offense has looked stagnant at times this year, and very explosive other times, but is for certain their opponents today Georgia has allowed just 3.8 yards per carry and 129.3 yards per game vs opposing rush offenses season ranking eighth in opponent EPA per rush and 24th in defensive success rate against the run, which rings alarm bells for a Irish offense that will be out to establish the run( ND ran the ball more than 55% of the time this season). On the flip-side, the Notre Dame's defense ranked top-five nationally in points allowed per game (13.8) and yards allowed per play (4.5) . So Im betting backup Gunner Stockton despite of his good qualities at quarterback, is an average at best passer and  will have issues  with one of the nation's best pass defenses and as the games progresses like expect the Dawgs to run the ball alot more .With that said Im betting on a defense-dominant, ground-and-pound kind of tilt that results in a lower scoring affair. 

Play on the under

I know Louisville QB Tyler Shough won’t play but he will be backed by a capable QB senior Harrison Bailey who completed 100% of his 8 passes this season.Bailey also will have a ton of play action on his side with  1,000-yard rusher  Isaac Brown, ( 1,074 yards on  147 carries) . I expect the Louisville     big-play offense that ranks  third in the nation in yards per play at 6.88  will not skip a beat vs a inconsistent Washington D that played much worse away from home.  On the flipside QB  Demond Williams Jr. will get the call at QB for the Huskies ( completed 77% of his passes and had a 4/0 TD/INT Ratio. ) and he is expected to be backed by Jonah Coleman who record 1,000 plus yards. Im beting both offenses with a eye on the future will open up their playbooks here, and give us alot more offensive action the totals line indicates. Note:Game time weather for Louisville vs. Washington looks favorable. Expect a warm day at 65°F with minimal cloud cover and no precipitation. Light winds from the west-southwest may have a minor influence on passing and kicking but shouldn't disrupt offensive play enough to make a difference. Overall, ideal conditions for a higher scoring matchup!

Play over

The L/3 meetings in this series  have gone over the Total with a combined average of 60.5 ppg scored. With nice weather expected in Santa Clara tonight Im expecting for the conditions to favor an over wager cashing again. We know what Motown can do offensively and I still believe in the 49ers ability to get going especially with the ego bashing they have taken over the last half of this season. This is a great opportunity to compete and to that the Niners need to put points on the board. 

Detroit games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better are 5-0 OVER L/5 for a combined average of 69.6 ppg scored.Detroit games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season are 11-2 OVER since 2023 with. combined average of 57.9 ppg scored.San Francisco games off an upset loss as a favorite.which is the case here have seen 6 straight games go over with a combined average of 50.3 ppg scored.

Play over

This Totals  line keeps moving down, but rightly so. as both teams  are known for their defensive prowess, plus  key offensive weapons will not play today, as Missouris star WR Luther Burden is out, and Iowas future NFL RB Kaleb Johnson opting out for the draft. Also Iowa has quarterbacks Cade McNamara and Marco Lainez in the transfer portal, With  that said, Im betting on a grinding  affair, that stays on the low side of the Total. The under is  4-0 in the four non-conference games that Missouri has played. 

Iowa last 6 games as an underdog have seen a combined score of 27.6 ppg scored.Iowa games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points have seen a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored dating back to 2023 season spanning a 9 game sample size,

Play under

Rain expected tonight, but its warm, and Im betting we still see points go on the board. According to my projections this number should be closer to 48. Soggy conditions will make for a ugly game is usually public consensus , but the defenses will also struggle here in this  environment. 

The Packers  enter this road game against Minnesota having scored 30-plus points in their last five games and Im betting they do damage again behind QB Jordan Love and company. On the flipside, we have Minnesotas red hot QB Darnold  who has thrown for 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the last six games with the Vikings scoring 30 plus in their L/4 overall. Needless to say these teams are really in a offensive groove and here in the warm environmentally controlled confines of Minnesotas home dome, it would not be unreasonable to believe that there could at some point  be enough offensive fireworks to propel this combined score over the offered total. The L/4 meetings between these teams here have seen a combined average of 53.7 ppg scored. Note: Packers are off a big home win last time out 34-0 on 
MNF- In the following game , NFL away sides  off a home shutout  victory   have gone 10-1 OVER  last 7 seasons. 

Green Bay has ogne over 4 straight times in game 16 of the season, while Minnesota has gone over 5 straight in game 16 of the season. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 48-18 OVER since 1983 for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

The line has moved up but rightfully so, as plenty of points should go on the board here today as strong QB play must be expected by Burrows and Nix. We know Burrows and company cant be stopped by any  NFL teams, and with  Cincinnati ranked  20th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.086) the Broncos and Nix should also do damage with regularity which makes for an over wager being an advantageous investment option. The Over is 8-3-1 in the 12 games Denver has played against teams with losing records with HC Payton. 

 Games on Saturdays  in the NFL have gone a  9-0 OVER 100%  in the last 3 years when ( the home team is penciled in as chalk like the Bengals are here today and the  line is  between 40 to 50 points.

Play over

Both these teams are misses pieces but Im betting Colorado State duel threat QB  Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi will do damage here today  against this RedHawks secondary. that despite being good against the pass this season,  will be without key  defender  Strader and couple other starting defensive backs wont play either.  On the flipside, as the Rams were just 107th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.057) this season, and with that said,  Miami O Im betting reciprocates with some offensive  damage of their own in game with a total that is very beatable.

CFB teams like Colorado State/ Miami O where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 5 PPG differential.) are 36-2 OVER since 2020 with a combined average of 51,8 ppg scored.

Play over

 Georgia Tech averaged 29.1 points per game this season on offense while Vanderbilt averaged 26.8 points per game.  The Techsters are 14th in the nation in EPA per play (0.084) while the Commodores  are 24th (0.063).  On the defensive side of the ball Georgia Tech is ranked  51st in EPA per play allowed (-0.022) and Vanderbilt is ranked  67th (-0.001). The offenses are obviously the strong points for both sides, and despite of absences from both sides, the offenses Im betting will shine , despite of the chance of their being some light drizzle or rain. 

The Over is 3-1 in the 4 games Georgia Tech has played against SEC opponents with  HC Key at the helm , and  4-0 OVER  in the four games the team has played against defenses that allow at least 8 or more  passing yards per attempt. Georgia Tech games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or more are 6-0 OVER since 2023 with a combined average of 64.7 ppg scored. .Meanwhile, The Over is 11-1 UNDER  in the 12 non-conference games the Commodores have played under Lea.Vanderbilt games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 are 9-1 OVER L/10 with a combined average of 58.5 ppg scored.

CFB teams  like Georgia Tech where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 5 PPG diff.) after 7 or more games are 139-79 OVER since 1992 for a 62% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.1 ppg.

Play over

The Red Wolves are here in. a Bowl game despite of owning the worst D in the Sun Belt for yards allowed.Red Wolves’ defense, which allowed 32.3 points per game and 460.7 yards per game  ranked sixth-to-worst in FBS. However their  offense is balanced and can strike quickly behind QB Jaylen Raynor, who threw for 2,562 yards and 14 touchdowns this season abd RB Zak Wallace, who’s been a scoring machine with 622 rushing yards and 10 TDs.Note: Raynor threw for six touchdowns and only one pick over the last two games entering the tilt. I know Bowling Green has a strong D, allowing just over 20 ppg, but Red Wolves according to my projections will eclipse that mark and get into the mid to 20s ( 24-27) and on the flips side give up more than 30 plus points here (***Bowling Green has  scored at least 31 points in three of its last five games) . Bottom line in a game to close to call on the spread, the total looks be a strong bankroll expanding investment opportunity.  - CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 96-48 OVER since 2020 with a combined average score of 58.2 ppg scored.

Play over

Cold weather game being played between two teams, that  have combined to score just 41.5 points per game this season. Both offenses are very inconsistent, making a case for a under wager a strong proposition. 

Seattle away or neutral games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 5-0 UNDER L/5 with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored.

NFL Home teams like Chicago against the total - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after trailing their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half are 31-7 UNDER since 1983 with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

Play under

This may seem like a high total, and it is,  but its melted up this way for a reason. HC Niumatalolo when coming over from Navy decided to change the offense up and not go with a triple option offense , and instead allowed new offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann to implement a run and shoot attack . He did it well, and here against a sometimes lackluster South Florida D that allowed  5.8 YPP in AAC action , Im betting San Jose State will do some series damage. Note:San Jose State throws the ball at one of the highest rates in the nation (64%) air attack. Yes, I know star WR Nich Nash will not play for the Spartans today as he awaits to the NFL draft but this allows WR  Justin Lockhart  who is a college star on the rise to get alot of looks today. On the flipside, Im also betting on the Bulls behind  Archie or Brown to  also do a fair amount of damage  offensively as  the  Spartans had problems  stopping explosiveness in passing downs and  finished the season 121st in third-down defense. Im also betting on the Bulls ground game  to find alot of holes vs a San Jose State using inside zone as the  Spartans D finished  last in  the country in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the softest schedules in the nation. Get ready for some early New Yeats fireworks on paradise Island this Christmas eve. 

Play over

The Saints are going to be cannon fodder for Green Bay as they play without quarterback Derek Carr (hand), running back Alvin Kamara (calf) and receiver Chris Olave (head).  The line obviously suggests that whats about to happen.  The nastiness of going from the confines of Super dome to the tundra of Green Bay should have them completely frozen up offensively and what will  see New Orleans having alot problems scoring. Because of this I expect the combined score of this tilt not to eclipse the offered number. Note: The Under is 4-1 in the five games New Orleans has played with interim coach Darren Rizzi on the sidelines.  The Saints have not  scored more than  20 in four of those five games. LaFleur, has closed on the Under in 12 of 19 games   the Packers have played vs sides with winning percentages of 25% to 40%.

Play under/

 UTSA’s defense was horrendous  this season and even if Coastal Carolinas QB Hudson does not play , Im still expecting them to put some points on the board as UTSA  allowed 5.7 yards per play this season, and more than  six yards per play in November. This team allowed 26 passing touchdowns allowed ranking them  123rd in the country.  On the flipside, UTSA’s offense went bonkers towards the tail end of the season, behind their pedigree QB McCown who  threw for 1,860 yards in his L/6  tilts to the gridiron while  rushing for 213 over his final three. He wont be slowed by this pedestrian Coastal Carolina D. Coastal Carolina games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 are 10-2 OVER with a combined average of 66.4 ppg scored. UTSA games in all games are 8-1 OVER with 65.7 ppg scored.

Play over

This is an outdoor game in frigid windy Chicago in December. These teams took part in a 23-20 tilt in week 13 and Im betting on this possibly being an even lower scoring affair. Note:

The Motown crew are on a  0-7-1 UNDER run as out door road favorites of points  or more and another lower scoring affair is in the cards today. 

Play on the under

James Madison starting QB Alonza Barnett III  who accounted for over 3000 yards of offense, and 33 TDs will miss this tilt.  The two backup QBs have  recorded  just two pass attempts in relief of him this season. JMU only had 5.34 YPP against conference foes and could struggle once again today moving the ball, even against a team like the Hilltoppers that struggled on D this season. Also the Hilltoppers have a lot of portal transfers and will be without Easton Messer WR. JMU has played a strong defense allowing just 4.73 ypg on D. With rain and windy conditions expected this game could end up being a grinding slow affair that stays on the low side of the totals offering. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, in December games are 41-14 UNDER with a combined average of 45.6 ppg scored.

Play under 

Memphis will be primed to take down a power 5 team in this tilt vs West Virginia. The explosive Tigers offense (that ranked 20th in offensive plays with 871) and an average of 6 ypp will Im betting do damage here today. Meanwhile, West Virginia now with a interim coach may not be as not be as cohesive especially on D, as they have a  long list of transfer portal players on the move including key defender Josiah Trotter. It also must be noted that the Mountaineers gave up an average 40 plus points a game in their L/3 trips to the gridiron entering Bowl season.  Memphis gave up alot of points this season overal and in neutral or road games allowed more than 27 ppg. Im betting the Tigers do what they do best and score and the Mountaineers answer back with points of their own as the new interim HC Chad Scott  was the running back catch and offensive coordinator and should have that part of their game running on all cylinders.  Memphis away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 7-0 OVER L/7 with a combined average of 70.8 ppg scored.West Virginia games after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 5-0 OVER L/5 with a combined average of 68 ppg scored while allowing their opposition more than 42 points per game.

Play on the over

These teams put 57 points on the board in the first meeting in Chicago  and now they go into a indoor game, which will also aid in what Im betting will be a higher scoring event. Im betting with nothing left to lose the Bears interim coaching staff put a game plan in pace that will focus on getting QB Caleb Williams confidence in a good place , before this season ends adn they will try to move the ball more aggressively. On the flipside, Im betting the Vikings strong offense, tees off here ( Vikings  EPA per play of 0.050 this season. Top-10 NFL mark)

 Minnesota games in December games are 8-1 OVER since 2022 with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored.Minnesota games after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 9-0 OVER since 2022 with a combined average of 55.9 ppg scored. The Over is 10-4-1 in the games Vikings have played as a home favorite under  HCO’Connell. Minnesota has gone over 5 of their L/6 division home games.

Play over

The two most recent meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 57.5 ppg scored. 

The Steelers secondary has been inconsistent this season, and Im betting Eagles Hurts pushes them this week, as the Eagles coaching staff unanimously has said they need to have their passing game going as the post season approaches, and will be out to get things rolling today in a aggressive fashion after struggling last week vs the Carolina Panthers. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be without two starting defenders as- safety DeShon Elliott and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjob. On the flip-side I know the Steelers will be without star WR Pickens, but this is a great opportunity for some other guys to stand tall. All in all my projections estimate a score in the 47 point range giving us an edge to the over.

Philadelphia is 5-1 OVER L/6  in 2nd of back to back home games . and 8-2 OVER  L/10 non-conference  home games.  Nick Sirianni as a HC of the eagles in home games in the second half of the season is 13-3 OVER with a combined average of 53 ppg.

Pittsburgh 7-3 L/10 OVER  as non-division road dogs of  6  or less.Pittsburgh games after playing a game at home have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 47.6 ppg scored.Steelers QB Russell Wilson is 9-0 Over the total in last nine starts as non-conference road underdog.

Play over

 The lead referee for this game  Bill Vinovich, is 59% to the under historically in his career.

Military Bowl teams have gone 29-5 under overall L/34 and these two sides in particular are on a 16-1-1 under run! After their big win in AAC championship game vs Tulane - Army may find it difficult to bring the same  fire they had last week into a rivalry game that will see them face a ramped up Navy side . They could start slow offensively and that as well as this being guaranteed to be a physical affair make for a low scoring game. 

Play under

This non division game projects to be a high scoring one. Note: All game 13s non-division  NFL confrontations  are 12-1 OVER L/13  when the home team is favored  in these non-division tilts for a potent 92% conversion rate..  Tampa Bay in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points (6 games dating back to 2022) have seen a combined average of 52.6 ppg scored.   Las Vegas games after playing their last game on the road are 6-0 OVER with a combined average 50 ppg scored.

Over ha cashed at a  8-0-1 rate in the last nine in this  series.

Play over

The Bobcats also have a top-30 red-zone TD% and is 20th in overall YPP. and has 32 TD in 44 red-zone trips.     I know Miami O has a viable D, but the Bobcats according to my projections  will be putting a decent amount of points on the board here today vs the RedHawks,. Meanwhile, Miami O QB Brett Gabbert,  has  six seasons under center and has gone to the air regularly this season as is evident by making the  most pass attempts he’s had in a single campaign. He also has accumulated  10,000 career yards this season and has an 80/29 TD/INT ratio and also projects to have a decent day here.These two teams played during the regular season and Miami took a 30-20 victory and Im betting a combined score in the same vicinity here today.  CFB teams like Ohio where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game have seen a combined average score of 53.9 ppg since the 1992 season with a sample size of 35 games ( 29-6 OVER) . CFB team like Miami O against the total - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) have seen a combined average of 50.4 ppg which covers a huge sample size 300 gmes dating back to 2020 ( 60% of the games eclipsed the total).

Play over

These teams (programs)Michigan-Ohio St games have seen t 10 straight meetings go over the total,  Ohio State is a three touchdown favorite in this one according to Vegas, and my projections estimate they will put 4 plus TDS on the board here while allowing Michigans offense to put two plus TDS on the board. Ohio State games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 8-1 L/9 with a combined average of 59.3 ppg scored.Ryan Day games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games with a combined average 62.2 ppg.

Play on the OVER 

Its obvious what type of game we are going to have here today. Let the chant begin. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE. College football season finale games expected to be defensive helmet  to helmet smashers  have lived up to expectations . In the last  21 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-4-1 ( Lots of 39.5 on the board at the time of this selection.

Play under .

UNDER the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Egg Bowl series. This will be a hard fought game despite of discrepancies. 

Play on the UNDER 

This total according to my projections are just a little on the low side and the over offers up profit potential. No Thanksgiving game  has closed with a total of 40 or less since 2019 and only one Thanksgiving game closed under 40 since the 2007 season  with 2 of 3 eclipsing that number. (Dallas Home games on Thursdays have gone 5-0 OVER  last 4 years and the last 4 Thanksgiving day Cowboys totals have the eclipsed the offering. The over is 10-4 in past 14 Cowboys games on Thanksgiving dating back 14 seasons. Dallas/NYG L/5 meetings have all gone over the total. THURSDAY Division Home favorites when the Totals offering is  47  or less  the OVER 9-2  for a 82% conversion rate sinde the 2020 season.

Dallas home games after scoring 30 points or more last game are 8-1 over with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored. HC Mike McCarthy home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 17-4 OVER with a combined average of 58.2 ppg scored.

I know the Giants had a problem scoring last week putting just 7 points on the board, but it must be noted  NFL road dogs who scored 7 point or less playing as hosts last week , when the OU line is 47 or less are 10-1-1 L/12 opportunities. Also NFL home chalk of  4 points ore more  who were division road DOGS of +7 or more last week like Dallas ( +10) are 17-1 OVER in their follow up tilt. 

Play over

This is the 2nd meeting between these teams this season, and Im now betting both offensive coordinators their players have a better feel on attack each other defenses. In the recent past when these teams played in their 2nd game of the season all 3 games eclipsed the total with a combined average of 49.6 ppg scored.

NFL team like New England where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - a poor offensive team (14 to 18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 41-14 OVER since 1983 with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored.

Play on the over

The Lions offense is averaging 34  ppg on the season, and 38.5 ppg in the last month of play and virtually looks unstoppable entering this game at Indianapolis a team that ranks lower half of the league in ppg allowed at 19th. So Im betting the Lions, scoring more than 33 points and the Colts offense in chase mode in game that easily eclipses the offered total. Detroit games after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-0 OVER with a combined average of 60 points per game scored.Shane Steichen home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games are 5-0 over with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

Play over

Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 51-20 since the 2020 season with a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored.

Eight of UAB's last nine games against conference opponents at Protective Stadium have gone OVER the total .

These teams are  6-0 OVER  in all six h2h meetings in Birmingham since 2005.

Michigan MAC Trophy rivalry, will feature alot of points going on the board. 

The Broncos allow way to many  explosive plays on the ground. . CMU recent struggles Im betting get sorted out here in a big way. They up 34 points  on the board against a decent Eastern Michigan defense two weeks ago, and I now expect them to have big output here . Meanwhile,Western Michigan outgained Northern Illinois at home last week but despite of losing by a 42-28 count, and Im betting on even bigger output here.  Their quarter back Wolff  has been efficient this season  recording  19 passing touchdowns compared to five picks while completing 70% of his passes. (Two of those interceptions came last week)

Western Michigan games after playing their last game on the road are 11-1 L/12 OVER with a combined average of 66.1 ppg scored.Western Michigan games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored.

Play over

 Dallas starting QB Cooper Rush  was 13 for 23 with 45 yards in a 34-6 loss to Philadelphia last week and Im betting he struggles again vs top-10 team when it comes to EPA per play allowed (-0.059), including  the eighth-best Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.028) in the NFL. On the flipside, the Texans are just 20th in the league in EPA per play (-0.036) this year, and QB  C.J. Stroud looks like hes mired in a sophomore jinx. 

 that said, Im expecting the Texans to hit the gorund running in this tilt behind Joe Mixen, vs a Dallas defense that is last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.078) and been stepped over consistently vs opposing ground attacks. The combination of Dallas inability to score with consistency and the Texans offensive struggles and highly probable ground concentrated game plan Im betting we see large swaths of this game with very little points scored which gives credence to under selection cashing. 

key teams numbers: The Texans have allowed their opponent to run 10.0% of plays in the red zone this season -- 2nd-best in NFL; the Cowboys have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season -- T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Texans have allowed 13.0 PPG in the red zone this season -- 9th-best in NFL; the Cowboys have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season -- T-2nd-worst in NFL.

Home underdogs on MNF  dating to September 2021 (23 game sample size) have seen the  Under click in at  18-4-1  with a combined average of 37.3 PPG scored .

Play under

The Chargers own the No.1 defense in the NFL and a average offense. The Bengals can put points up on the board in bunches, but they could be fatigued here on a short week of rest and also start slowly after taking part in a 35-34 slugfest that they lost in heart breaking fashion.  

Sunday Night Football unders are 8-2 so far during this NFL campaign. Since the beginning of 2022, they're 35-13 (73%) to the under, going under the total by 4.5 points per game.

NFL road teams after playing  a Thursday road game  like the (Bengals) have gone under in 42 of 54 games  since 2016. 

Play under

SF 49ers are on 13-1 Over the total run as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points and their QB Brock Purdy is on 8-2 Over the total run vs. divisional opponents. Add to that HC Kyle Shanahan is 41-26 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since the 2017 campaign. 

These teams have a history of playing closely contested affairs with the Steelers having the upper had having won 7 of the L/8 meetings SU with the only Steelers loss coming by a 16-14 count, with none of those games 8 games seeing more than 33 points scored. Rinse and repeat.  NFL Road teams like the Ravens against the total - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game are 22-4 UNDER since 2020 with a combined average of 43.1 ppg scored.

Play under

NY Jets QB  Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014.

These two teams have gone  6-0  over in all six   meetings in Chapel Hill since 2003, and the L/4 games have seen North Carolina put 55, 59, 50, 49 on the board, and according to my projections against a lower tier D, another huge output is projected with Wake Forests capable offense doing damage against a Swiss cheese Tar Heels D that has allowed 35 ppg at home this season. N.Carolina has averaged 36..7 ppg in their L/3 overall.

Play over

LSU shit the bed last week in an ugly performance vs Alabama in a DD home loss. Their offense struggled, and Im now betting they come out like gang busters as they look for redemption. With that said Im betting LSU will be very aggressive from a offensive perspective in this tilt vs a Florida side that has allowed an average of  34.2 ppg in their L/3 overall and 31.2 ppg vs SEC opposition this season.. After being smashed by Texas last week in a 49-17 loss you can bet the Gators will also be primed to bounce back. Billy Napier games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival has gone 8-0 OVER L/8 with a combined average of 64.5 ppg scored with his team averaging 32.4 ppg.

LSU HC Brian Kelly games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses have gone over 8 of the L/9 times with a combined average of 76.5 ppg scored. with LSU putting an average of 48 plus ppg on the board during that span.

Play over

This line opened at 48, which is a key number. But Im betting the number we get here is still very viable as my projections estimate a score in lower 40s. Im expecting an old fashioned grinding affair with the combined score staying on the low side of the number.  These teams average   95th in plays per game between overall between them.  Bret Bielema games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 14-3 to the under with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored.Michigan State away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 9-1 UNDER L/10 with a combined average of 41.7 ppg scored.Michigan State away or neutral games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better are 7-0 UNDER since the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 41.3 ppg scored.

Play under

The Commanders have proved they can score this season behind duel threat  QB Daniels , but their D, remains their Achilles heal , as they their  EPA per play allowed registers at  (0.050), and their Dropback EPA per play (0.100). With that said, a up-trending Philadelphia offense that has seen their QB Jalen Hurts put 9 touchdowns on the board in his L/6 games, and has registered a 115 passer rating over that span and has only thrown one interception Im betting has a big night. The ability of Hurts to shred the Commanders secondary will open up the field for RB Barkley who Im betting runs rough shot here tonight. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s here today.  Philadelphia home games in the second half of the season dating back to least season have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 59.6 ppg scored.Philadelphia home games after 3 or more consecutive wins have gone over 7 straight times dating back to the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 55.2 ppg scored. Philadelphia home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 61.4 ppg scored. Washington games in road games have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 57.2 ppg.Washington away or neutral games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored.

Play over

Kent State according to my projections will not eclipse DDs here today . The Flashes were shutout last week, thanks to an abysmal performance from QB Ruel Tomlinson who got his first start. He was 8-of-18 for 62 yards and threw a pick, along with five sacks . He is expected to start again tonight vs Miami O and projects to struggle again. The Flash have been shutout 3 times this season, and scored 6 or less points four times. UNDER the total is 9-1 in the last 10 in this  series. Miami O HC Chuck Martin games versus poor offensive teams - averaging 310 yards/game is 7-0 UNDER as coach of Redhawks with a combined average of 27.2 ppg scored.Miami (OH) games when playing against a team with a losing record are 7-0 UNDER L/7 with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored.

Play under

 Looking at Central Michigan defense had me looking at reasons to bet this game over the offered total  of around 51-52 points.  The chips has allowed over six yards per play in conference games to this point  and the my projections estimate the  Rockets are going to able to move the chains and produce adequate offensive production that will help us get over this number. The Chippewas defense allows 31 points per game with a lot of points being scored on explosiveness. Central Michigan’s defense ranks 128th in Explosiveness allowed which is obviously a crap ranking. On D, the Chips  rank 73rd in Rush Success Rate allowed as opposed to 94th in Pass Success Rate allowed.  The Rockets Quarterback Tucker Gleason leads a consistent offense that averages 29 points per game. . Toledo also rank 60th in Rush Success Rate and 30th in Pass Success Rate. I know Toledo has done decently from a defensive perspective, but the CMU dual-threat QB duo and above average  running game that ranks in the top 40 in yards per carry should help bolster their offense production and see the combined score  get us over the number. Toledo has gone over in all 4 home games this season, while Central Michigan 3 of 4 road games and 4 of 5 MAC confrontations.  Central Michigan away or neutral games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 61.8 ppg scored. HC Jim McElwain games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) have gone over 10 of 12 games have gone over 59.9 ppg.

Play on OVER

These teams have a recent history of playing lower scoring affairs with the L/4 meetings resulting in an average combined score of 32 ppg. Currently Miami ranks dead last in the NFL in scoring and here on the road Im betting will once again struggle to points on the board. As for the Rams they rank 18th in the NFL in scoring and that inconsistency according to my matchup projections will continue this Monday night. I know the Fins have looked better offensively in their L/2 games after not scoring more than 15 points in 5 straight trips to the gridiron, but they will have probelms scoring in this road venue. Just like Miami has increased their offensive output in their L/2 so has the Rams D also picked up its stopping efficiency ranking  third in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.095), and  have very strong stopping the run. NFL Road teams against the total - in a game involving two sub par defensive teams (23-27 PPG) in the 2nd half of the season, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 25-5 UNDER with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 39-10 UNDER since the 2015 season with a combined average of 43.2 ppg.

Miami games off a loss against a division rival have gone under 6 straight times with a combined average of 35 ppg scored.

LA Rams games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season are 8-1 under L/9 with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

Play under

The last 8 meetings between these two teams have seen a combined average of 50 ppg scored. My projections once again estimate a combined score in this range and  gives credence to an over wager cashing for us today. NFC South same- division tilts  like this have  gone  7-0 OVER so far this season and that trend should continue today. The combined average of the above mentioned games were 57.8 ppg. New Orleans is in complete free fall and will now in desperation mode become more liberal in the attack schemes and just open up . It must be noted NFL teams on Sunday's  off 4 or more consecutive  SU and ATS losses have gone over 6 straight times. 

Play on the OVER 

 LSU owns  one of the nation’s premier offensive lines, a unit that has allowed just 4 sacks in 8 games, only 24 tackles for loss all year and Im betting  they will give their QB Garrett Nussmeier  all the protection he needs to go airborne consistently today which to me is a not brainer considering the Tigers are one of SECs worst rush offenses at 3.34 ypr. On the flip-side Alabama will also have to unload in back for fashion behind  QB Jalen Milroe who has the ability to  torch LSU with enough explosive plays to put a boatlaod full of point on the board. 

Alabama games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 5-0 over dating back to last season with a combined average of 62 ppg scored.

LSU games against conference opponents have gone over 10 of the L/12 overall with a combined average of 69.7 ppg scored. LSU games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 11-2 OVER dating back to last season with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. LSU games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. are 8-0 OVER L/8 opportunities with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

The last time these teams faced each other a high scoring shootout took place, but now on a short week of rest and  each D feeling more comfortable  with facing  each sides offensive schemes Im betting a contrarian bet that favors the under. I know both defenses have looked porous at times but the Bengals for example have played much better as this season has progressed as was evident last week when they held  the Raiders to just 3.7 yards per play .On the flips side, QB Burrows of the Bengals, will be without key target Tee Higgins this week.Since he faced the Ravens back in week 5 Burrows has only surpassed the 250 ypg plateau once, without Higgins who played that game against the Ravens. Im on the other side, of this very public line movement, and recommend an under wager. 

NF Home favs with a line of 52 or more points have gone under 15 of the L/17 games  last 4 years! Longer term there have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 plus points totals offerings,  with the Under converting at a 73% rate going  22-8  UNDER .

Cincinnati 6-3-1 Under the total since 2014 in TNF prime time affairs. Cincinnati versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 lr more yards/play have seen a combined average of 46.3 ppg scored spanning a 6 game sample size dating back to last season. \

Play under

n Baltimore games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 8-1 UNDER since the 2022 season with a combined average of 29 ppg scored. John Harbaugh home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games have gone under 19 of 25 times with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (Baltimore)- after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 50-20 UNDER wince 1983 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

 Overall  Coastal Carolinas D,  has been atrocious, and recently they allowed 516 yards to Louisiana and followed that up by allowing 511 yards to Troy.  Coastal Carolina is allowing 428 yards and 33 ppg while giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  Chanticleers pass defense is not exhibiting much stopping power and  has allowed a 17/4 TD/INT ratio and a completion percentage over 60%  and are allowing more than six yards per play . Thats something  App States  QB Joey Aguilar can take advantage of.He recorded  a 33/10 TD/INT ratio last season and gained more than 3,700 yards. This season,  thanks to his excessive  aggressiveness has  recording 18 TDS and 10 interceptions which are not as prolific as last years action  ,but today he should do fine.  Meanwhile, the Mountaineers  defense has also been bad, as is evident by  giving up  6.9 yards per play.  App State have victories in their L/2 tilts  vs Georgia State and Old Dominion despite allowing 884 total yards  Coastal Carolina stake no prisoners  big-play offense have recorded 26 plays of 30+ yards  and 14 plays of 40+ yards ranked top 15 in all of College Football and will have a open alley to put a boatload full of points on the board. Im betting we have a real shoot out here and a combined score that gets eclipsed. Coastal Carolina home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 6-0 OVER with a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored.

OVER

The Colts and Vikings are off losses last time out and and will be primed to get back into the winners circle this week in this dome game. 

Some interesting stuff went down when the Colts benched QB Anthony Richardson in favor of veteran Joe Flacco after Richardson “took himself out”  of their last game -for a play in the fourth quarter because he was tired. When know Flacco can ball when given the opportunity and thats what Im betting on this week from the veteran. You have to remember Richardson has not done all that well this year so this is not a down grade situation. When Flacco played in Weeks 4 through 6, Indianapolis had a Dropback EPA per play of 0.290 and things will really get rolling this week in the aerial attack for the Colts. That Flacco data was the fifth-best mark in the league in that three-week span. The Colts Flacco, owns a 102.2 passer rating this season compared with a 57.2 passer rating for Richardson. Flacco has thrown for 716 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception this season.

Flacco has averaged 7 more ppg in his starts for the Colts  than Richardson. With the pass attack upgraded that should unleash the running game behind Johnathon Taylor to also get untracked. Meanwhile, despite of having. a quality D, the Vikings are ranked  just 19th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.079) since Week 4. Im also betting on Vikings Sam Darnold to start to roll agin after cooling down recently after a fast start. Sam Darnold will make his eighth start of the season. He has recorded a 107.2 passer rating while throwing for 1,610 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. line here is  that- these are two proficient offenses  with two inconsistent  defenses  playing in what will be a face paced affair in a dome game which Im betting leads to a higher scoring affair. 

Minnesota   home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread have gone over 7 straight times with a combined average of 54.7 ppg scored. Kevin OConnell in home games off a road loss has seen a combined average of 51 ppg go on the board L/5 opportunities.Kevin OConnell games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season are 5-0 OVER with a combined average of 56.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play over

Ravens own the best offense in all of football  averaging 452 ypg and  have gone over in  7 of 8 tilts averaging a combined 56.4 pp), and the worst D in the entire NFL at this point in the season. Meanwhile, the Broncos are starting to juice up their offense behind QB Bo Nix and have registered an average of 27.8 ppg in offense over their L/4 games with all of them eclipsing the total. Everything points to this totals offering being eclipsed. 

Play over

UNDER the total has converted in 11 straight in the Air Force-Army rivalry. Im betting on another grinding affair that stays under this totals offering. 

Dak Prescott and company have had problems, moving the ball and their problems will continue today according to my projections against this SF D. Meanwhile, Im betting on the Cowboys playing a conservative game as mistakes can not be tolerated in a almost certain must win situation for the Boyz. 

NFL team against the total  (49ers)- off a home loss by 10 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 23-4 UNDER since the 2020 season for a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored.

Mike McCarthy away or neutral games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game have gone under in 13 of L/14 with a combined average of 39 ppg.

Play on the UNDER

 Buffalo according to my projections will score 30 plus points here today according to the line offerings from the various books( lines-makers). Seattle offense exploded last week putting 34 points on Atlanta on the road.  The Seahawks  have not scored less than 20 points in a single game this season, and project to hit into the low 20s here.  both QBs have been explosive this season, and Im betting on a rinse and repeat of past incarnations of this series here today. All 10 games in the series since 1995 went Over the total. 

Buffalo has gone over in 10 of the L/11 vs NFC West. 

Play over

These two teams recently do not exhibit alot of offensive qualities , but Im betting on a break out here this week to some extent that helps us eclipse this total. The last six games of the series have gone Over the total with a combined average of 60.8 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - outrushed by their opponents by 1 or more yards/carry on the season, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 26-5 over with a combined average of 47.1 ppg scored.

Play over

Houston 14-1 to the Under in the last 15 rematch games vs. the Colts.

 Boise State has won the Stats battles and all 6 of their games  by an average of +142 net yards per game), Their opus operandi has been via a top tier run game that is averaging  +7.9 net yards Per Rush behind Heisman Trophy candidate  Ashton Jeanty.Jeanty has 1,248 yards on 126 carries for 9.9 yards per pop and 17 rushing touchdowns and can make the best of defenses look average at best.  

Broncos have the second-best offense in the nation in yards per play.  and going against UNLV side that  gave up 44 points to Syracuse at home  I expect mucho points to go on the board.  On the flip-side, UNLV ranks 21st in yards per play and project to have a big output night vs a Boise State side, that gave up   82 points in the first two games of the season versus Georgia Southern and Oregon .

With that said, Im betting on a high scoring affair that eclipses this total.

Boise State games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 66.8 ppg scored

UNLV games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or better yards/play havre gone over 9 straight times with a combined average of 73.7 ppg.

Play over

Jacksonville State is ranked 15th in yards per play g and have done even better  in league play, garnering a whopping 7.6 yards per play in two Conference USA games and according to my projections are  to get into the upper 40s here again in this tilt vs Middle Tennessee State that ranks  127th in yards per play allowed on defense at 6.69. MTSU has scored consistently and averaged 6 ypp in conference play ( 3 games), and also project to get in the high 20s which gives credence to an over wager in this mid week  spot pay /play situation. Note: Jacksonville State when playing against a team with a losing record ( L/7) have averaged 46.4 ppg with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 68.8 ppg scored. Middle Tennessee has allowed four of its previous five FBS oppoennts  to top the 42 point plateau on offense. . Jacksonville State won 45-30 on the road last season when these teams met and a similar output is a viable opportunity to cash a over ticket again. 

Play over 

SF has been lighting up the board of late, but they now go against a rested Chiefs side, with a top tier D. The Chiefs are allowing  just 3.8 yards per rush and 6.5 yards per pass attempt.  KC is scoring 23.1 PPG, allowing just 15.6 PPG while playing a conservative brand of football which Im betting will be the case again here this afternoon. 

Kansas City has played five games this season and four tilts  have not eclipsed the  had 47 point plateau. Dating back to the 2023,  47 or less points have been  scored in 15 of 18 games the Chiefs have played .

NFL road teams like the Chiefs  coming off their bye week are 31-12 UNDER L/43 opportunities   add to that KC is 10-3-1 Under the total in their last 13 post-bye week games and an edge for a under wager comes into play .  

Play under

. The  Rams are averaging just  18.8 ppg  on offense this season while the  Raiders are averaging only 18.2 ppg on the current campaign. Both sides have a boatload full of key offensive injuries and should once again battle with production problems in this battle.

Rams away or neutral games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse are 5-0 UNDER dating back to the 2023 season with a combined average score of 39.2 ppg going on the score board.

NFL team like Vegas where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after 2 straight losses by 14 or more points are 37-11 UNDER since the 2015 season with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored .

NFL team like the Rams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two sub average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) are 44-15 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 41 ppg scored.

HC Sean McVay home games in October games 12-2 UNDER with a combined average of 38.6 ppg.Sean McVay home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season is a perfect 6-0 with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

Play under

Marshalls  secondary is of the top tier variety, and they will be a nightmare for the  Panthers' passing attack. Georgia State does not  run the football well , and that means according to my projections a lack of point production as was the case last week where they scored just 14 points in a loss.v Important favotr here : Marshall ranks 29th in Passing Success Rate and 54th in Havoc., Marshalls starting QB is out for the season, and instead they will go with a QB by committee option which has seen them stall on red zone dirves. Marshall ranks  outside the top 100 in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. These are keys to what Im betting will end up be a lower scoring affair.  Georgia State games as a road underdog.have gone under 5 straight times. HC Charles Huff games versus poor rushing teams - averaging 120 or less rushing yards/game have gone under 7 straight times with the average ppg diff clicking in at 40.8 ppg scored.

Play under

Troy has struggled on defense all season, outside the top 100 in EPA/Play this season and South Albamas explosive offense that  has ,   seventh best rankings  in EPA/Play this season under aggressive offensive minded  head coach Major Applewhite.NOTE:  when Gio Lopez is playing QB  the offense is 10th in EPA/Pass, per Game   with a 12-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On the flipside the Jags D is sub par, and Troy Im betting also does some damage here in chase mode in  a tilt that eclipses this total. 

Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 41-14 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 63.7 ppg scored. 

CFB teams like Tro where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 82-33 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 60.1 ppg scored.

Play over

This a lower total but for good reason it features the #1 and #2 scoring defenses  in the NFL.  (The Broncos are  allow ing 14.6 ppg  while LA Chargers   allow 12.5 ppg ). Both offenses have been abysmal this season, ranking 31st and 32nd respectively. Denver is off a big win last time out, but it must noted that the Broncos have gone under in 13 of their L/14 games after a win by  14  points or more.LA Chargers games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points are 8-1 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 31.3 ppg scored. Everything points to a low scoring grinding type affair.

Play under

My projections estimate a combined score in the 55 point range, New Mexico is off a bye week and will be rusty on offense out of the gate. Meanwhile, Jacksonville could show some fatigue here on a short week of rest that saw them play last Friday, and could also start slowly.  The Aggies have a total of 11 offensive touchdowns this season,  as QBs  Santino Marucci, Parker Awad, and Deuce Hogan have combined for a 40.9% completion rate and a 4/6 TD/INT ratio. Their lack of firepower helps this sscore stay under the listed Total. 

Home teams like Jacksonville State where the total is between 56.5 and 63 - with a poor defense - allowing 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 38-13 UNDER since 1992 with a combined average of 51,7 ppg scored.

CFB teams like New Mexico State where the total is between 56.5 and 63 - after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 55-21 UNDER since 1992 with a combined average score of 55.4 ppg scored.

Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points - outgained by opponent by 80 or more passing yards/game on the season have seen a combined average of 51 points per game scored from a sample size of 57 games dating back to the 2020 season.

 New Mexico State away or neutral games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 6-0 UNDER since the 2023 season with a combined average of 44 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

Both teams are banged up with a boat load full of injuries on offense , and their collective flow should be curtailed this Monday night giving us an edge with a under wager. Also the defenses of these sides have been well above average and more top tier D should be expected in this tilt. 

Kansas City away or neutral games after the first month of the season are a perfect 6-0 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. Kansas City away or neutral games after playing a division game are 6-0 UNDER since the 2022 season with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored. Kansas City games in games played on a grass field are 12-3 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored.

NFL teams like New Orleans where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 37-9 UNDER since the 2015 season . New Orleans have gone under in 5 straight Monday tilts  L/3 seasons with a combined average of  31.2 ppg scored. 

Andy Reid games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points are 17-4 UNDER with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.Andy Reid home games off 2 consecutive close road wins by 7 points or less. are a perfect 5-0 UNDER with a combined average of 32.8 ppg scored.

In the last 4 years. AFC home teams have gone under the total 15 of the L/18 .  

AFC Conference teams like KC have gone under in 15 of their L/18 in the last two seasons befor a  Bye Week.

Play on the under 

 The Falcons won last week,  despite of not t scoring a single offensive touchdown. QB Kirk Cousins has been less than consistent and because of this the Falcons are ranked  just 21st in the league in EPA per play (-0.048). On the flipside, QB Baker Mayfield has been more efficient, but in this road environment will be asked to a little bit more conservative and lean on the run game.  Both these coaches are defensive minded, and with the overall state of each side coming into this tilt an under wager looks to be a viable investment option.

The total in Tampa Bay away or neutral games in the first half of the season are a perfect 8-0 UNDER L/8 dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 33 ppg scored. Tampa Bay games after a win by 10 or more points. which was the case last time out, has seen 8 of 9 games stay under the total with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored . Tampa Bay games after a 2 game home stand are 6-0 under dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored.

Atlanta has gone under 7 straight times on Thursdays.

Play on the under

The Packers ran the ball alot last time out and Im betting they will lean on their run game again because the banged up QB Jordan Love maybe less than 100% if he plays and if a backup takes to the filed - which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Game 4 division home favorites  like the Packers  have gone UNDER  15 of the L/16 times  in the last seven years for a 94% conversion rate. 

The Vikings are 2nd in the NFL Defensive Points per Game allowed  at( 10) The Vikings have pressured opposing passers at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL this season (38.6%) while recording a sack on 11.0% of dropbacks (second highest)

.Note: The last time the Vikings went into Lambeau Field was October of last year. They easily won the game 24-10 shutting down Love and the Packer offense. It was a grinding affair, and Im expecting a repeat type lower scoring game . 

Minnesota games in the first half of the season are 9-1 UNDER with a combined average of 41 ppg scored dating back to last season.

NFL team like Minny where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 116-61 UNDER dating back to the 1983 season .

Play under

New York took out  the Broncos 31-21 in Week 5 last season, and Im betting on a similar type combined score here this Sunday . 

The Jets QB Rodgers was in top form vs  New England last time out , completing 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns and projects to  have similar numbers in this matchup vs a Broncos D due for negative regression  . On the flipside, the Broncos  QB Bo Nix, the No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft, had 216 yards on 25-for-36 passing to go along with 47 rushing yards and a TD against Tampa Bay for his first career victory. He also projects to have a strong effort .  Note:

NFL road underdogs playing off a road pup victory  the previous week like the Broncos have gone over 16 of the L/19 times.

Despite of both sides being defensively efficient, Im betting on this tilt eclipsing the total based on QB play and offensive up-trending data. 

These teams have combined for an average of 53.5 ppg at Metlife Stadium in their L/4 meetings in this venue.

NFL team like the Jets where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 48.6 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival, in September games are 54-19 OVER L/51 seasons with a combined average of 48.2 ppg scored.

Play over 

This number is low, actually just a bit to low according to my projections.  Michigan L/16 games as a home favorite have seen a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored.

The last eight games of the Minnesota/Michigan  series have gone Over the total. 

CFB team like Michigan against the total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have seen a combined average of 50.6 ppg scored ( spanning 138 games dating back to the 2020 season).

System applies to: Michigan over.

Army has  outscored the opposition 103-28, with their ground heavy option offense  including 61-21 in their two FBS games. The offense is clicking and Im betting they will continue to produce here this evening vs  a Temple side on short rest.  It must be noted the Owls when they faced the option offense of the Navy  Midshipmen they allowed 38 points in a DD loss. Im betting Temple will also get run over defensively again, but their offense is starting to up trend as was evident when they scored 45 points and had 6.6 yards per play against Utah State last week behind a solid looking QB Evan Simon. 

Temple games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 68.7 ppg. Temple home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse have seen a combined average of 58.6 ppg scored going over 5 straight times dating back to last season .

Army West Point games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored.

CFB Home teams like Temple- sub par team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more last game have seen  an of 54.5 ppg scored spanning 95 games going back to the 2015 season

CFB Home teams like Temple where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in September games are 43-15 OVER L/9 seasons for a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total - dominant team like Army outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a poor team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 48-18 OVER since 1992 with a combined average of 61.6 ppg.

Play over

QB Jayden Daniels is a decent looking yiung QB, but has hard problems getting the ball into end  zone . It must be noted that rookie QBS  have not been offensively prdiceint in  early-season NFL play  that has been evident by a 26 of 35 games staying  Under the total in weeks 1-3 . Im betting Danilels issues with TD proficiency continue for now against what will be a hyped uo Cincinnati group that will be looking to play a complete game. It must be noted that  Cincy is  5-2-1 Under  L/ 8  under the Monday night lights while , scoring just 17.6 PPG.  Also the under is a perfect 5-0 UNDER in Zac Taylor games against NFC East division opponents with an average of just 37 ppg scored.

 NFL team against the total - off a road loss like the Bengals , when playing on Monday night are 30-7 UNDER since 2020 with average combined score clicking in at 39.1 ppg . NFL team like Bengals where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 37-8 UNDER since 2015 with a combined average of 43 ppg scored .

Play under

Andy Dalton will take over for Bryce Young at QB this week, will Im betting give the Panthers some offensive cohesiveness. Unfortunately, nothing can be done for Carolinas Swiss Cheese D, allowing 36.6 ppg .The Raiders offense is projected by me to light the Panthers secondary up like a Christmas Tree. This combination of factors bodes well for a combined score that eclipses this total. Note: NFL road underdogs of 13 or less points like the Panthers . that scored  3 or less points playing as hosts in  their previous game  have gone OVER in 11 straight opportunities dating back 7 seasons. 

Play over

Im betting the Hawkeyes will be in. alook ahead situation here vs Ohio State up next, and could find their offense just going through the motions earlier on this game vs a tough Minnesota D that has not allowed points since the 4th quarter of their game against North Carolina to start their season. Both teams thrive via the rush and that will eat clock time which in turn gives credence to a lower scoring sleep fest. Kirk Ferentz games when the total is 35 or less as coach of Iowa : 9-1 UNDER (90%) with an average over/under of 31.9 with a combined average of 27.4 ppg scored.Kirk Ferentz in a road game where the total is 35 or less of Iowa has seen a combined average score of 26.4 ppg scored spanning 5 games.

Play under

The under is a perfect 6-0 in the last six Vandy-Mizzou series in Columbia. My projections estimate a combined score in the high 40s ansd no more than 51 points which gives us value with betting the under on this totals offering. Teams like Missouri total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have gone under are 90-46 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 50 ppg scored. CFB teams like Vanderbilt where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 69-33 UNDER with the average combined score clicking in at 50.1 ppg.

Play under

These two teams the Jets and Pats  have  stayed under the total in their L/ 4 head to head matchups with an average combined score of 24.3 combined ppg going on the board. When considering this game takes place on a Thursday night-it must be noted that  NFL games on that night  have stayed under the total 15 of the L/17 times with a 41 point or less Totals offering from the books.  Finally these teams are both playing .500 ball this season, which sets up well for a lower scoring affair, with  a line of 44 kor less - In tilts featuring evenly matched records they  have failed to eclipse the total 13 of the L/15 times ( 44 pts or less). Ive seen nothing from positive from these offenses that will turn me off this being a lower scoring snooze feast affair. Note:, The Pats own  a Net EPA of +0.09 and NY Jets  have recorded  a Net EPA of -0.01-New England is Top 5 in the league in run frequency over the first two week of this season and on the flipside QB Aaron rodgers is still not 100% after repairing his achilles and will also be letting the run game develop around him as he gets more comfortable in the pocket.  With that said, Im betting a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the number.

New England games off a non-conference game.- have gone under 5 straight times with a combined average of 27 ppg scored.

Robert Saleh away or neutral games in September games is 5-0 UNDER with ana verage of 33.2 ppg scored.

Play under 

For much of their first game of the season vs Tennessee the Bears offense looked extremely inconsistent, and despite of winning they looked like their offensive production was a mirage. Here against a stacked Texans D, Im betting they will have issues getting scores . On the flipside, the  Texans D  [vs OPP] After SU win have gone under 8 of the L/10 times.   Texans Against limited mistake offenses averaging less than 1.5 turnovers per game have gone under in 11 of the L/14 . Meanwhile, Against decent-scoring teams like Houston averaging 24 PPG or more the Bears have gone under 11 of the L/15 games. Bears  [vs OPP] After a conference SU win are 36-21-2 UNDER. 

Chicago  in game 2 s are 1-6 O/U L/7 seasons with a combined average of  (36.4 ppg scored).  Texans have gone over in 3 of their L/4 vs the Bears with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored in those 4 games.

NFL Road teams like Chciago against the total - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. are 29-4 UNDER L/4 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

System applies to: Chicago.Play under

Derek Carr was extremely efficient in his opening game this season with New Orleans as he posted a 142.5 QB rating while converting on 19 of 23 passes with the Saints putting 47 points on the board in a big DD win.Meanwhile QB Prescott and company are offensively  loaded and proved it in a DD road win vs Cleveland and project to have success here again today in Dallas where they home games saw a combined average of 55.2 ppg go on the board in the 2023 campaign Im betting on more offensive fireworks again in a rinse and repeat situation. NFL Game 10 or less when  both teams are off an ATS win margin of +14 or more pts have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER. Dallas L/23 games played on turf have seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. The Cowboys last 12 home games with a line of 52 or less have seen the total eclipse 11 of those times. Also All non-division underdogs  like the Saints off a victory  of 28 or more points  have seen the total go over in 12 of their L/13 opportunities dating back 12 seasons. 

Play over

 The Blue Devils routed the Huskies 41-7 a season ago at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. However, this is a better version of Connecticut, and they should do some damage here offensively in the rematch. Unfortunately Im projecting that the Blue Devils will also show off some explosive offensive firewrks in what Im betting will be a higher scoring affair. Note: UConn owns a current 13-game road losing streak against power conference (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC), the Huskies' average margin of defeat is 28.5 points.  The five losses in Mora's tenure have an average margin of defeat of 39.2 points, including last year's 59-3 loss at Tennessee and a 59-0 loss at Michigan in 2022. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - off a road win, in September games.like Duke have gone 30-9 OVER L/4 seasons with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

LATE STEAM- OVER 

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

Im expecting this to be a hotly contested game with less offensive fireworks than the linesmkaers expect.  The lat three meetings here in South Florida between these teams has seen a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Forecast for tonight's tilt  is hot and humid with temps around 80 and humidity close to 100%  I expect this game to start to slow down a great deal as the game progresses because of the suffocating heat  and possible rain which will aid in a combined score that stays on the low side of the number.   Miami 7-2-1 Under in the last 10 and after watching them struggle to score last week vs Jacksonville look for this combined score to fall short of the offered number. 

Teams like Miami  that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under for a 65% conversion rate  in Week 2 since 2005  .

Miami has gone under in 6 of 8 division home games as favorite of 10 points or less. 

Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L6 division road games.

Play under

Rookie QB Jayden Daniels starts today vs the Commanders and Im betting it will take time for him to acclimate to the NFL game. But Im also betting on Tampa Bay having issues moving the ball and for their production to be muted. Last season TB saw an average of 34.7 ppg scored on their own home field and Im projecting another combined score in that range here today. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home. :Dating back  more than two seasons , NFC South Division sides like Tampa Bay when going against a    NFC East Division side like Washington have gone UNDER in 15 of 17 matchups. 

Play under

Broncos rookie  QB Bo Nix Im betting takes time to acclimate to the NFL game, and struggles here out of the gate with downfield consistency which will directly affect this combined score. 

These two teams have gone UNDER in the last three matchups , with an average of only 39.7 combined PPG going on the scoreboard.

The Broncos have recorded 5 straight unders in the  L/5 seasons in game 1 , with an average of only 35.2 combined PPG going on the scoreboard. 

The Seahawks have gone  UNDER  in their L/3  openers with a combined    average of 40 combined ppg going on the scoreboard.

Also non division  matchup  in the first game of the season. have gone under 26 of the L/35 times dating back 11 seasons. 

Denver is 91-57 UNDER the total since 2015 for a 62% conversion rate for low bettors.

Play under

The Cards enters this game  having gone under in 16 of their L/20   and 9 of their L/10 when playing on the road versus  Eastern Division opponents . Meanwhile the home side  Bills have gone  under in 9 of their L/11 season openers  In their last including 3 straight openers with a  a combined  average of  39.3 ppg scored. I know QB Kyle Murray and QB Josh Allen gets the over juices flowing with bettors but Im projecting on a lower scoring affair here out of the gate for both sides. Note: Non conference tilts during the first month of the season have failed to eclipse the total in 16 of the 18 games dating back 3 seasons.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games at home.The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road.

Play under 

This line has now been bet down to low- based on what I believe to be some false assumptions from some sharps and the public alike. Notre Dame may be in a letdown spot after their big road win against Texas A&M last time out. But this is their first home game of the season, and will want to get their offense unwound behind their new QB , and despite of N.Illinois projecting to be a top 3 MAc team this season- hey, their still a MAC team, and consistent defensive play is not one of things that stands out from this conference. Im betting in a letdown spot or not the Irish do some offensive damage here that will allow this total to be eclipsed. Also Notre Dame flashed some extremely strong D out of the gate vs Texas A&M and may show some wear and tear this week, and as the game goes on and firmly within the grasp of the home side, look for some starters to get rested and for Northern Illinois to find some success late in this game offensively, helping us push this combined score over the Total. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s giving us a strong edge here based on those factors that I have isolated. (From a side perspective Im not quite ready to take the points here despite of perceived value and will elect to pass -with a better safe than sorry mind set) 

Play over