We know the Niners can score but after three straight losses you can bet the team will rest their prospects on a big time effort from a rested D, off a bye week. It must be noted NFL road chalk   having suffered 3 or more consecutive  losses  have gone under 12 of the L/13 times darting back to the 2019 season. The Jags despite of a 5 game win streak Im betting will find the offensive sledding tough today but I have enough respect in the Jags D, that SF most likely will also not have any obscene production keeping this combined score from eclipsing this number. 

 NFC road favorites of  3 points or more like the 49ers  have gone  under  in  16 of the L/17 times vs AFC opposition like the Jags , when the offered  Total  is 47  or less . When both  teams  are off their Bye Week like these two side are the under is  0-7 when the totals offering is  46 points or less. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 63-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NF Lteam where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 102-55 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

All three games played here between these sides have stayed under the total. 

Play under

Bulldogs. Quarterback Mike Wright, who led Vanderbilt to a win against  UK at Kroger Field is now playing for Mississippi State.  Wright   continues to be impress with his ability to make plays and  can elude the pocket and make plays with his legs and Im betting he has another strong effort today and helps his team with higher offensive production totals than the linesmakers expect. On the flipside the Wildcats  offense  really ramped up they're aerial attack   last Saturday night. Quarterback Devin Leary had a season-high 372 yards passing vs Tennessee and wide receiver Dane Key had his best game of the season and Im betting they build on that momentum in this tilt  With the running game the Wildcats most efficient mode of moving the ball a complete game is not out of the realm of possibility which makes for a much bigger point production than is expected. All in all we have value with taking the over here today.

My projections based on some higher edge probabilities estimates a much higher output than the linesmkaers. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28+ points - Note: KENTUCKY is 51-1 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992.  MISSISSIPPI ST is 41-2 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992.

Stoops in 48   road games as the coach of KENTUCKY has seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 6-0 OVER in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 61.8 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 KENTUCKY/ (MISSISSIPPI ST) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 PYA) after 7+ games.are 52-16 OVER L/5 seasons with the combined average score of 48.6 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

The Cardinals have a very hard time moving the ball behind a clunky offense. as is evident by averaging just 18.1 ppg in production and have scored 9 and 10 points respectively in their L/2 games.Key Trend:  NFC Conference teams who scored 10  pts  or less in each of their last two games  have gone  under 9 straight times. 

. Thats not a good omen against a Baltimore side that is allowing just 13.9 ppg this season on D (tops in the NFL). On the flipisde, the Ravens offense has been pedestrian this season to say the least , averaging just 22.3 ppg in road tilts. I know Arizonas D, has been highly inconsistent this season, probably because of the amount of time they spend on the field, but it must be noted that BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER  vs.sub par defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored. The Ravens exhibit  is a grinding style of play that eats up alot of clock time and Im betting nothing changes today.

BALTIMORE is also 9-0 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.1 ppg scored. BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER  after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 25.2 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 13-40 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLbteam where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - with a poor passing D - allowing 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 69-26 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Previous to their win last time out vs Navy by a 17-6 score the Air Force Cadets had scored 39,45, 49, 34  points respectively and in their opener this season jacked 42 points on the board.  This Flyboys side is explosive to say the least, and here today vs a Colorado State side allowing an average of 35.8 ppg and more than 40 points per game at home , Im projecting them to eclipse the 40 point plateau while Colorado State will fire back in desperation and do just enough damage to help us cash with an over wager vs  this very vulnerable number. 

AIR FORCE is 16-5 OVER  in road games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) with he combined average of those games clicking in at 55.3 ppg. 

AIR FORCE is 33-18 OVER in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game with a combined average of 61.3 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total (COLORADO ST) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a double digit road win are 30-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 60.6 ppg.

CFB  Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (AIR FORCE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game are 113-64 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 52 ppg  going on the score board . 

Play on the over

The Bears are averaging 195.6 yards per game rushing, third-most in the Pac-12 and 19th nationally  and Im betting they try to grind away here in effort to slow this game down to keep the Trojans explosive attack of the field as much as possible -  which in turn will eat up alot of clock time.

CALIFORNIA is 14-3 UNDER  in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att with a combined average of 51.4 ppg scored. Wilcox is 8-1 UNDER  after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of CALIFORNIA with a combined average of 41.7 ppg scored. Wilcox in his L/53 games against conference opponents has seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. 

CFB Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (USC) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.7 ppg scored. 

Liberty can destroy opposing Ds with their offense both through the air and on the ground via some very exotic play making as the offense has averaged 36.3 per game overall and 41.3 ppg in road tilts . Meanwhile, W.Kentucky has the ability to answer back with a offense that averages 41.3 ppg on offense at home this season.

On the flipside, the Hilltopers D, gives up a ton of yards on the ground and their secondary and  according to my own projections  and does not matchup well vs Liberty's well oiled aerial or ground assault. Meanwhile Liberty against Buffalo and Middle Tenn State allowed 27 and 35 points on the respectively this season,  and have shown themselves to be vulnerable vs decent offensive groups  (The Hilltoppers have far more fire power than either Buffalo or Middle Tenn State .With that said, Im betting Western Kentucky will do some offensive damage here today in a all out performance that will have huge implications on them getting a bowl invite as their record now stands at 4-3. Problem remains with the Hilltoppers D, and Liberty is a machine that wont be stopped by a pedestrian group. 

I know D, seems to standout in big  games, but the offensive talent and the lack of defensive talent on display here will trump that trend. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28+ points. Note: LIBERTY is 16-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points with the combined average of 82.8 ppg scored.

Liberty projected to score  35 W.Kentucky to score  30 

 After being upset last time out by Cleveland in a very physical game the 49ers are banged up with key offensive components , RB Christian McCaffrey at less than 100% with an oblique injury and WR Deebo Samuels also questionable.With that said,  the offense maybe more muted than usual . The good news for SF is they own the leagues best D, allowing just 14.5 ppg and Im sure they will give the inconsistent Vikings offense all they can handle. Advantage to the under.

Monday Night NFL Primetime tilts have  seen 7 of 8 games stay under the Total this season with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. Monday Night games that have the road side as chalk have gone under 17 of the L/18 times the L/3 seasons. 

Minnesota has only eclipsed the total one time in 6 games this season. Vikings have gone under in their L/4 MNF games.

SF has gone under in 5 of their L/6 back to back road games. Five of the L/seven meetings in this series have stayed on the offered total.

NFL  team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a favorite, when playing on Monday night are 22-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.6 ppg scored.

Play under

Florida State enters this tilt having eclipsed the 30 point plateau in offensive production in 12 straight games, and is currently averaging  42.2 ppg overall in offense including 48.7 ppg in 3 road games. On the flip-side Duke, is averaging 31.2 ppg on offense and scored 41 points in their lone road game and are capable of decent offensive output even against viable Ds. I know both these teams have also displayed strong defenses, but as is evident by the line that favors FSU by 14 or more points, the linesmakers are expecting the Seminoles to do some scoring and run away with this game, and in that evident you can bet that Duke will open up their attack and speed their snap count up which will result in an even more wide open type of affair than many might expect. 

DUKE  vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored.

FLORIDA ST  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 52.4 ppg scored.FLORIDA ST in their L/116 games  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game have seen a combined average of 53.1 ppg scored. 

CFBl teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (DUKE) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 67-35 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the over

The Totals  line  (41.5) was attacked right out of the gate and for good reasons. After sinking in the hjigh 30s it was attacked again to the upside, and thats where we enter into the frey.   

It must be noted that  New Orleans’ last 16 NFL games have  seen 15 of them stay under the total ... with a  combined  average of only 31.5 combined ppg scored ! Considering their recent difficulties scoring it wont be a hard decision to estimate that the Saints points production will be muted against a up-trending Jaguars D. In the flipside the Saints D has only allowed more than 20 points one time this season, so the Jags inconsistent attack should also have problems producing points. 

Allen  in 12 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored. .NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER in the first half of the season this season with a combined average of 34.2 ppg scored. 

 NFL THURSDAY games with a Totals Line of 40.0 or less points   have gone under 10 of the last 11 times in non division tilts. Also Thursday night games have seen  Jacksonville go under  in their L/4  dating back 5 seasons, while the Saints  have gone under in 11 of their L/12 Thursday contests dating back 10 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 UNDER   after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average passing teams (5.9-6.7 PYA). 70-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

After allowing 42 points last week on national tv vs the 49ers the Cowboys will be primed to bounce back defensively this week with what Im betting will be a chip on their shoulders. Quote: "I'm pretty sure (Moore) wants to go out there and put it on us, but you've got to put on some perspective for what we just went through on Sunday and how we're champing at the bit to get out there and get out next game, on the road, so we can kind of just get this taste out of our mouths," Dallas safety Jayron Kearse said.

"We just went out there (against the 49ers) and had an all-time stinker for what this defense is about, and we're ready to go out there and play against somebody as well. So I'm pretty sure he's ready for it and we're ready for it as well."

DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34.5 ppg going on the board. 
DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg scored. DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored.McCarthy is 10-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored. Dallas has gone under in 11 of their L/12 back to back road games.

Dallas has gone under in 6 of their L/7 vs AFC West. 

Chargers have gone under in 12 of their L/15 as home dogs of 4 point or less.

NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 62-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Im betting Carolinas game plan is  to really slow this game down, by running the ball a great deal while taking their time with snaps. The Panthers D, has really been beat up on of late and Im sure a concerted effort to defend aggressively was the mantra in practice this week. /note: CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER  after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.8 ppg scored. Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins attack will not be as potent as usual as they deal with the injury to key RB RB Devon Achane who has 7 TDs in his first 4 games. This missing cog for the Fins makes them more one dimensional offense and easier to read. Advantage to the under 

NFL non-division home favorites of  8 or more points  like Miami is here today  have seen 19 of 22 tilts stay on the low side of the Total  when the offered number is  45 or more points.  

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the under

Two old Mountain West rivals go head to head today in what Im betting will be a back and forth affair. BYU is fresh off a bye week,  and Im betting their top tier offense will be ready and fresh for TCU sometimes viable D.  The Cougars were said to have worked on their running game with the extra prep time, and if they have made advancement it will make their already viable passing game even more tangible. Meanwhile,TCU would be all but eliminated from the Big 12 race with  a loss today, so you can bet they will also be primed to perform in aggressive fashion. 

BYU has averaged 32.5 ppg in offense on the road while allowing 34.5 ppg. Meanwhile TCU 34.5 ppg in offense at home. 

Injury update:BYU wide receivers Kody Epps and Parker Kingston will play for the Cougars against TCU. Epps was one of BYU's top wide receivers in 2022.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TCU) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 64-32 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

MICHIGAN is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons.MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points over the last 2 seasons

We expecting sustained heavy winds tonight in KC, which Im betting hampers these offenses. Add to that the below applicable  trends

Reid is 13-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average 35.9 ppg. Reid is 13-4 UNDER in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 35.3 ppg.Reid is 15-4 UNDER  in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more  yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 45.4 ppg scored.Reid is 15-4 UNDER  off 2 consecutive road wins in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. 

Payton is 12-3 UNDER  when playing on a Thursday in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992 with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 37-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored are 37-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Liberty has averaged 36.8 ppg per game on offense this season, and 46.5 ppg on the road in two tilts. Meanwhile Jacksonville State has averaged 30.5 ppg on offense and Im betting they will have to open up here against a Liberty side that can put points on the board in bunches against the best of defenses. It must be noted that Veteran coach Rich Rodriguez is well respected  for his offensive prowess throughout his career and Im betting he formulates an aggressive effort here in this tilt. I know some of the current team trends might have many leaning to the under, but Im not one of them. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (LIBERTY/Jacksonville St) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), in conference games are 36-8 OVER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 70.7 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (JACKSONVILLE ST) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 22-3 OVER L/31 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 68.6 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

My projections estimate a combined score that will be in low to mid 50s, making this Totals offer vulnerable .New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI) New Mexico State  solid run game should really pile up the yards  against an FIU defense that ranks 98th in Stuff Rate and 53rd in Defensive Rushing Plays Explosiveness. The Aggies coming in to their last game at  Hawaii were averaging 33 points per game and 4.1 Points per Opportunity , but very high winds gave their offense some problems in that tilt, but here this week back at home should be ready to roll. Meanwhile, the Panthers have  recorded one-score victories over Maine, North Texas, and UConn  and must not be under estimated in their ability to fire back offensively here on the road in Las Cruces. 

 I know these teams have played a slow pace so far, but Im betting the Aggies ability to put points on the board via their run game will force the FIU to up the tempo and for total to be eclipsed. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 35-9 OVER L/30 season's for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over

After allowing 37 points in. a loss vs Houston last week you can bet this Jacksonville coaching staff went to work here to motivate their embarrassed players into having a much better and concentrated effort this Sunday. It must also be noted that after scoring just nine points in a 17-9 loss to Kansas City, Jacksonville failed to score in the first half last week and its obvious their offense is just not clicking . Thats    evident by  quarterback Trevor Lawrences  one touchdown pass record in his last two games. Here against a Flacons side, that have been solid defensively I just cant see things getting much better from a production standpoint. On the flipside the Flacons depend greatly on their ground attack to keep the pressure of their young QB Ridder who is in his 2nd season. With that said, Im betting on alot of clock being eaten up here by the Falcons via the run game  and for a much better effort from Jacksonville defensively to help us stay under the number here this week in London. 

Jacksonville  is 10-2 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.

  Games played at WEMBLEY STADIUM   have gone a  perfect 6-0 UNDER  in the last L/5 seasons, with an average of only 35.3 combined PPG going up on the scoreboard.

Play on the under

Temple according to my power rankings is improving , and tonight I expect Owls QB Warner to light up a ugly looking Tulsa secondary for some decent production. I expect most of Qwls offense to come through the air, as their run offense has been quiet to say the least as evident by ranking 120th in the nation in rushing success .  Defensively, Temple has some issues ranking   105th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 126th in Havoc .With that said Im betting on Tulsas run heavy offense to really do some damage here vs a Temple side that ranks 67th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 90th in Rushing PPA. Both sides should see some explosive offensve production all be it in two different ways, but the bottom line remains intact and that is a higher socring game than the linesmakers totals offering suggests. My projections estimate both sides will score more than 28 points.TEMPLE is 27-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points with the combined average score clicking in at 77.8 ppg.TULSA is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. 

Play over

These teams have a recent history of taking part in some high scoring affairs as is evident by the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 52.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. I know Carolinas offense has not looked all that explosive out of the gate this season, but they    do go  against a Seattle side that is off a 37-31 slugfest last time out and that also allowed 30 points in a loss to the Rams in week 1 play. With that said, my projections estimate both these sides will score 21 plus points. SEATTLE is 10-0 OVER   when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

Carroll is 31-17 OVER after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of SEATTLE

NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 26-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Jayhawks are the nation’s top-ranked team  overall in returning production, and are currently outgunning their opponents this season by an average +231 net YPG and averaging 37 plus points per game on the season. Meanwhile, BYU in back to back games have scored 38 and 41 points and thanks to not being able to run the ball consistently have been firing away down field via their passing game. Today Im betting on a back and forth all guns blazing tilt with the combined average score eclipsing this number. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28 plus points. KANSAS is 40-5 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points with a combined average of 77.5 ppg scored. .BYU is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 9-0 OVER when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored. 

Leipold is 10-1 OVER  after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached with a combined average of 76.4 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 41-16 OVER L/31 seasons. 

Play over

Niners had the league’s No.1 scoring defense last season  allowing just  17.2 ppg  and are off holding the Steelers to  7 points and a total of  239 yards on offense. On the flipsdie, the Rams, travelled to  Seattle in week 1 action and  slowed the Seahawks down to a crawl, as is evident by  allowing just  180 total yards and  only 13 points. 

Needless to say both the LA Rams and the SF 49ers looked very good defensively in game 1 of the season. Both did this while playing in the visitors role. Note:NFL Game2  sides  playing in the their 2nd  of back-to-back away tilts like the 49ers  have only eclipsed the offered total just twice in 18 opportunities dating back 7 seasons. Also away  sides like SF,  have  gone under 13 of their L/14  road  games  after allowing 7  pts or less  on the road in their  previous  game. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons.

Defense, Defense and more defense today in what Im betting will be a grinding tilt. 

NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 64% or better, versus division opponents are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

ECU defense ranks  99th in total defense and 104th in scoring defense  and Im betting is in deep trouble vs the  Mountaineers. Meanwhile, App State is top-50 in total offense, passing offense, rushing offense and scoring offense and Im betting they tee off here today on their own home field vs a side that looks vulnerable . App State D, has also been sub par and even though the Pirates have not really been rhythmic on offense so far this season they should do enough damage here to help us eclipse this beat down number. Houston is 10-0 OVER off a home loss as the coach of E CAROLINA with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored. (E.Carolina lost last time out 31-13 to Marshall.)

Play over

The Jets  and Bills have a recent low scoring matchup history as is evident by three straight under in the last 3 meetings  with   37, 37, and 32 combined points going on the scoreboard. Last season Buffalo went under the Total in 7 of 8 road games when favored, while the Jets went under in 4 of 5 games as home pups. BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 ppg scored. 

Also Monday night home dogs have remained on the low side of the number 13 straight times over the last couple of seasons. Considering this field is prob going to be in bad shape after the Dallas. NY Giants games on Sunday it would be fair to access that the sledding could be rough for the offenses which once again favors a lower scoring affair. 

NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under 

Detroit is 12-0 OVER Game 1 of the season and have gone over  4 straight vs AFC West... DETROIT is 14-1 OVER  in road games against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Lions allowed 6.2 ypg on D last season dead last in the NFL. Im betting on Mahomes and company to rack up points again, and for Lions QB  Jeff Goff  who had 4438 yards and 29 TDs last season to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own. KC is  8-0  L/8 OVER  Game 1 of the campaign... 8-0 OVER  L8 vs Motown with a combined average 56 ppg scored. . Chiefs scored 44 points  in the opening week win over the Arizona Cardinals in 2022, and have scored at least 33 points in every opener since 2017 and they Im betting will be the the catalysts for what Im betting will be an over cashing for us here tonight.

Play over. 

Central Michigan returns nine starters on defense .After ranking top-50 nationally in EPA/Rush Allowed and Defensive Line Yards and  they should be tough to work against once again. Michigan State returns four starters on the offensive line, but its line ranked 122nd in Offensive Line Yards and 116th in Stuff Rate allowed so scoring and moving the chains could easily be problem here tonight against a formidable defense. Meanwhile, Central Michigan has to replace their starting QB and running back from last season, and they also could find the sledding tough here early this season. The Spartans return seven starters on defense and the rest of the class looks to be tough as nails, Im seeing this being their strength this season. All in all Im projecting a fairly low scoring event with this Total not being eclipsed.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (C.MICH/MICHIGAN ST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 42-10 UNDER L/31 seasons with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored. 

Play under 

NC Carolinas defense was elite last season, and will once again come in with some of the best defensive players in all of college football especially at the linebacker position ie Payton Wilson. Last years offensive coordinator  Beck left NC for Coastal Carolina, so the offense will Im betting be a work in progress  out of the gate against a strong UConn defense. Note: NC Star quarterback Devin Leary transferred to Kentucky so as I said, things will be different, and will take time to jell. On the flipside, the Huskies will once again lean on their running game, behind new QB Joe Fagnano and that will eat up alot of clock time in what should be a grinding early season affair that gives the edge to the defenses and not the offenses. 

NC STATE is 22-6 UNDER when playing on a Thursday since 1992 with a combined average score 44.9 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (UCONN/NC STATE) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 84-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under 

Im betting the Eagles have no intention of turning this into a shootout, but rather a war of attrition and that means they will  stubbornly stick to their vaunted ground attack which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Chiefs under rated D, will not be easily  be run over and points for the Eagles will Im betting be muted . These two key projections have me taking an under wager here this Sunday for the Super Bowl. 

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season this season.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER   after a win by 3 or less points over the last 2 seasons. Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 UNDER L/20  after allowing 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games  Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games on grass.Under is 16-5-1 in Eagles last 22 playoff games.Under is 60-27 in Eagles last 87 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

 Play UNDER

I know Joe Burrows and Patrick Mahomes keep the spot light on a possible shootout, but according to my projections that is unlikely in a do or die championship  play off game.  The Chiefs have allowed an average of just 19.4 ppg at home this season while the Bengals have allowed just 20.6 ppg in away tilts.  

 KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER   in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. 

Six of the L/7 meetings here in KC between these teams has stayed on the low side of the offered Total. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 49-21 UNDER  L/39 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Im betting Miami turns this into a physical grinding play off affair that ends in a combined score that will not eclipse this totals offering. Slow and easy will be the clock eating mission of the Fins as they try to keep QB Josh Allen on the sidelines as long as possible.  MIAMI is 12-3 UNDER   in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 Wildcard games.

Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 playoff games

BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER  in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

NFL team against the total (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 47-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Under is 7-3 in Bills last 10 vs. AFC.

Play UNDER 

 These teams the Chiefs and Seahawks  have played scorched earth all out  offensive slugfests in recent meetings going  5-0 OVER in the last 5 matchups with a combined  average score  of 62.6  ppg going on the scoreboard. With that said, Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this week, as the leagues most explosive offense lead by QB Mahomes takes on the  2nd worst road defense in the league this season as the Seahawks allow 56.7 ppg away from home. Im betting on the Chiefs doing some damage here offensively  (projection of 28+ points) and for the Seahawks to be in all chase mode, which will help us see a combined score that eclipses this offering.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 OVER  when they score 28 or more points this season with a combined average 52.2 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 12-1 OVER when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 68 ppg scored. Im also projecting Seattle to score 20+ points-SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 63 ppg scored.  

Play on the OVER 

Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

When Wake Forest takes to the gridiron and top gun QB Hartman is leading the offense you can almost expect offensive fire works from them, even against the best of defenses. They enter this game, having scored 34, 45, 31 points respectively in 3 straight  and even against a staunch Missouri D, they have the ability to rock the house with a boatload full of points. On the flipisde the Demon Deacons own a sometimes porous D, that has allowed more than 31 ppg on the road this season. Meanwhile, Missouri has played their best D, at home , but on the road their numbers surge to an average of 31.4 ppg. Tonight Im betting the Deacons to get into the 30s offensively and for Missouri to have to be aggressive and also do some damage, against a D, that will not be as daunting as those they faced in the SEC. 

Drinkwitz is 6-0 OVER  after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as the coach of MISSOURI.

Clawson is 8-1 OVER after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of WAKE FOREST with the average combined score clicking in at 65.8 ppg.

Play OVER

My projections estimate both sides will eclipse the 20 point plateau giving us strong value with an over wager . Note: PITTSBURGH is 14-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVE when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-3 OVER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 50-21 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

The L/6 meetings in this series have seen both teams combined to average 48.8 ppg. 

Play on the over 

LendingTree Bowl - Hancock Whitney Stadium - Mobile, AL

  Southern Miss defense can stop run games cold as is evident by having limited the opposition to fewer than 150 rushing yards on average per game this season.That makes me believe Rice despite of throwing more than their share of picks this season will be forced to air the ball out, which will see them also score above the expected output, and see some extra points go up on the board against them because of their atrocious turnover ratios. On the flipside,  Frank Gore Jr., who ran for  1,000 plus rushing yards this season for Southern Miss should have a field day on the ground vs a Owls  side that struggles against ground attacks  ranking  91st against the run, allowing 166.5 rushing yards per game. Southern Miss also has alot of turnovers (22) so some unexpected offense could easily be stymied but go the other way. Sloppy game expected and more points than the lines-makers are projecting to go on the board. 

Over is 4-0 in Owls last 4 vs. S-Belt.

RICE is 8-0 OVER  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 62.9 ppg scored. Rices L/24 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored.

Over is 5-1 in Golden Eagles last 6 non-conference games.

Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

Play OVER

Denver just cant put points on the board, consistently especially with Wilson under center. Note: Wilson’s 83.5 Passer Rating ranks No. 29th  of all starting quarterbacks during this campaign. I know the Chiefs pass D is sometimes porous , but DENVER is just  8-1 UNDER  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 32.4 ppg scored. Meanwhile, we know the Chiefs can pile up points but it must also be noted that Denvers D is a solid group,  as as a result of this are  9-2 UNDER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.3 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC.

NFL road favs off a road chalk defeat in their last game like the Chiefs  have gone under in their following game in  all 6 times this has happened this season. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 7.3  or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 25-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

DENVER is 9-0 UNDER in games played on a natural surface field this season and 11-1 under on the season. Under is 22-7 in Broncos last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play UNDER

This total according to my projections is a bit high and we have an edge with an under wager here this Thursday night. I know the Raiders have been rolling but HC Jacobs is dealing with some injuries that may slow that roll . On the flip-side the Rams are decimated offensively as the injuries  are sky high, and Im betting they wont be able to take advantage of below average Raiders D. Note: Raiders rank 23rd in situation-neutral pace and Rams rank 28th.

Game 13 teams like the Rams  with a win %   of .250 or less, when the  Totals offering is 42 or more have gone under in   21 of the L/24 times for a 88% conversion rate dating back 9 seasons. 

LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  33.8 ppg scored. 

LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg. 

Raiders have gone under in 4 of their L/5 non division road games as favs. 

Rams have gone under in their 3 Thursday night tilts,   

NFL Road teams against the total (LAS VEGAS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

SEC Championship Game - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

This total has steamed up by almost 5 points since opening and now that it's been over done Ill come back and take a contrarian stance and hit the under offering. 

Georgia has allowed 12.4 ppg on the road this season.The Dawgs have allowed 20 or less points in their L/7 games.( 10, 0, 20, 13, 19, 6, 14) Im betting Georgia will not allow more than 17 this week, while my own projections estimate a 31 point offensive output . 

GEORGIA is 6-0 UNDER when they score 29 to 35 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.8 ppg scored.

Kelly is 16-6 UNDER  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 49.9 ppg scored. 

GEORGIA is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.4 ppg scored.

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 35-8 UNDER L/30 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 43 ppg scored.

CFB  team against the total (GEORGIA) - outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with a combined average of 46.5 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

C-USA Championship Game

North Texas has allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their L/4 games and are capable of staling the Roadrunners offense. Meanwhile, UTSA has allowed 7 points exact in two of their L/3. With this being a championship game, Im betting the action will not be as wide open as reg season action, and a more chess like game will be played. Im not saying is will be a defensive sleeper, but I am betting the final score will not top this steamed up offering. 

UTSA is 7-0 UNDER   sub par  defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored.

CFB  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (UTSA) - off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 25-3 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 62.4 ppg. 

Play UNDER

 BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  as a road favorite this season with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. But with this prime time game registering like a play off affair Im betting on an even lower combined score in what Im betting will be a grinding affair. 

New England's consistency on offense is something that aids us tonight with this wager.  They do not rank in the top half of the league in any statistical category. The Pats had some production  last week vs the  Vikings defense that ranks 31st in the league and dead last against the pass. But that wont be the case here vs a Buffalo D, that despite of inconsistencies is ready and capable of standing tall here tonight. Yes, last weeks Buffalos D failed it, but they will be primed for a complete game bounce back. Last week, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson used a lot of pre-snap motion and formations to generate one-on-one matchups, but the Pats are not capable of this with this current group . 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite are 27-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 37.3 ppg going on the board. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 61-24 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 41.6 ppg.

Play UNDER

The 49ers offense is multi dimensional with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell at running back, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and  tight end George Kittle. Im betting this group. matches up well for the Saints D, and does some damage . On the flispide Andy Dolton and the Saints despite of some inconsistencies put 27 points on the Rams last week in a victory and should not be underestimated in their ability to do have decent output vs. a strong SF D. Note:The Saints stand 8th in the league in passing offense with 237.5 yards per game and Im betting the 49ers will force them to bomb away as SF goes above their expected offensive output average. 

NFC WEST home teams like the 49ers  vs any NFC SOUTH opponent like New Orleans , when the Total offering is  43  or more points are  10-1 OVER L/4 seasons. 

New Orleans and the SF 49ers have gone over  9 straight times here in California  with a combined  average of 52.5 ppg going on the board!

Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.

Play OVER

No matter what stats both offensively or defensively have been recorded by either side this season should be discarded and it must be noted that this is a heated rivalry that is often very physical and grueling. This kind of battle also usually ends in a lower scoring affair as compared to the totals offering. These teams have gone under in 10 of their L/13 meetings in Ole Miss and in the two most recent battles these teams did not eclipse hefty totals of 71 and 65.5 with both tilts coming well under theses numbers registering in at 52 and 55 points respectively. 

OLE MISS is 8-1 UNDER  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53 points going on the board.OLE MISS is 10-2 UNDER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 road games.

80% Chance of rain in Oxford Thursday night.

CFB team against the total (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 191-113 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

The Giants were torched for 31 points last time out vs Detroit in a loss and now Im betting will be more focused and prepared to try to pair up their defense, by trying to slow this game down to a grind by using their running game , especially knowing they will be playing an explosive Dallas offense. Meanwhile, Dallas behind a strong D, allowing just 16.2 ppg at home this season will once again be hard to score on. This above mentioned combo Im betting will lead to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.

NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 9-1 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. 

NY GIANTS are 23-8 UNDER  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 21-8 UNDER  in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 games in Week 12.Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games in November.Under is 20-5-2 in Giants last 27 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games.Under is 21-6-1 in Giants last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 9-3-2 in Giants last 14 vs. NFC.Under is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC East.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a ATS loss.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a straight up loss.Under is 33-16-2 in Giants last 51 games overall.

DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER  versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored.

Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 13-3-1 in Cowboys last 17 games on fieldturf

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 61-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Im sure the pundits and weekend warriors are expecting a passing duel when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs go head to head with  Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. However,  both these teams are most prob going to have key receivers out of the lineup this week and Im betting  that will hamper big downfield plays. Key here will be  the Chargers  inconsistent  offense this season behind a banged up QB Herbert’s who is still not 100% with a  rib injury, which happened in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs. Throw in the WR issues and the Chargers could have problems with point production vs a under rated KC defense and fail to live up to offensive estimates from the lines-makers which makes for an inflated Total that is vulnerable to be taken advantage of from under bettors. 

Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in November.Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 vs. AFC.

LA CHARGERS are 29-12 UNDER (L/41 in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 25-12 UNDER L/37 in home games revenging a same season loss against opponent with a combined average of 39.6 ppg going on the board.

Under is 22-6 in Chargers last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game

Game 15  or less  road chalk of  6 or more points with a Totals line of 49 or more   have gone under in 12 of the L/13 times dating back 3 seasons. 

NFL games in which the home team is an UNDERDOG have gone  16-42 UNDER overall and 0-6 UNDER when AFC team is the home dog .  

NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games. are 73-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

Last week Aaron Rogers  and  the Packers looked rejuvenated with a OT win vs the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have suffered through  an ugly start  to their season, and has possibly help resurrect themselves behind  rookie WR Christian Watson  who came to the fore front as he produced some much needed  forward momentum  as he scored three touchdowns including  8 receptions ( 107 ypg)  . Im betting on the Packers continuing to look downfield after last weeks successes and for a decent output vs a viable Titans D. However, on the flip-side the Packers D, has not been all that stable allowing 24, 27, 27, 23, 27, 28 points respectively 6 of their L/7 tilts.  With the Tennessee being a run heavy side, and the Packers rankings 28th against the run, my points projection out projections look ready to be proven right. Note: Star  RB Henry  has been sub par this season , but will have a field day vs a side that allows 4.8 yards per carry.Im betting the Titans hit those  above averages offensively and help get this game over the offered Total.   My projections point to both sides putting 20plus points on the board. Note: TENNESSEE is 16-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average  of 60.2 ppg scored.

GREEN BAY is 17-5 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 57.8 ppg scored in those 22 tilts. 

Vrabel is 8-1 OVER  in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of TENNESSEE with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored. TENNESSEE is 20-8 OVER  against NFC North division opponents since 1992 with a combined average of 51.3 ppg scored. Tennessee is  5-1 OVER L/6 vs NFC North and 8-3 OVER L/11 as non-conference road pups. 

LaFleur is 20-9 OVER  after playing a game at home as the coach of GREEN BAY with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored. 

GB is 4-0 OVER off a win as an underdog and   3-0 OVER L3 vs Tennessee  with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored and  7-0 OVER on  Thursdays vs non-division opposition and  11-2 OVER in the  2nd of back to back home games. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (GREEN BAY/TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games are 144-88 OVER L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

 My own number on this total is 47 thus prompting to back recommending  an over wager here.

Im betting  top tier QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Hebert take part in a back forth Sunday night event. 

LA  Chargers have cashed on the OVER in  10 of their L/11  non division games  when the Totals offering  is  51 points or less with the average combined score clicking in at 60.1 ppg.

Chargers are 4-0 OVER L/4 in back to back road games  and  7-1 OVER vs NFC West  and  12-4 OVER as division road dog of 3 points or more . 

SF is 6-1 OVER  off road dog victory and 5-1 OVER off division road win and .8-2 OVER at home after allowing 14 points or less . These teams have combined to average of 59.2 ppg in their L/4 meetings

Over is 10-4 in Chargers last 14 games overall.

LA CHARGERS are 19-8 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 55.7 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 19-9 OVER  after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.2 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the OVER 

 .These two sides in head to head action have taken part in some high scoring tilts with the last five meetings going over the set total with a combined average of , 65.4 combined ppg registering on the scoreboard.  Im betting two hungry sides who need to get untracked go after each other from the get fo today and contribute to a higher scoring affair than the data might project. 

Note:  The Rams were off their Bye last Sunday before their defeat to the 49ers at home.  Despite of being well rested  the Rams lost .

NFL sides like the Rams have gone over 7 straight times when off a SU/ATS home chalk loss after their Bye Week.

Another interesting trend: Tampa  goes to Europe next week . Dating back 17 seasons, non-division NFC sides  before playing in a neutral  site tilt  like the Bucs will the total has been eclipsed ,  20 of 22 times , when the Total offering  is between 39 and 49.5 points . 

 Bowles is 12-2 OVER  in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER  in road games off a division game as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

McVay is 12-4 OVER  as a road underdog as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 55.5 ppg scored. 

TB is 5-0 L/5 vs NFC West.

Play OVER 

 The Buffalo D ranked 1st in the NFL is staunch to say the least allowing  an average of 14 ppg overall and have seen their 6 of  their 7 games  games stay under the total and all 4 of their home games with a combined average of 43.6 ppg go on the score board while allowing an average of 9.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Jets defense ranked 6th in the league has allowed 19.5 ppg in division games and 13.7 ppg in their L/3 games overall with all going under the set total. 

AFC East division confrontations  have gone 4-21 UNDER  L/10 seasons and have gone under  16 of their L/18  dating back 5 season  when the Host side  is an underdog of +3.5 or more points .  

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite 23-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Eagles defense (allowing 16.9 ppg)  ranks second in DVOA against the pass and in no way will the Texans game plan be based on play option, rather, Im betting  it will  focus on making this into a sleep fest with a slow deliberate ground attack. Note: Texans QB Mills  ranks  29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt in the league among starting QBs. Meanwhile, on the flip-side the Texans have been viable in their secondary, ranking 17th in DVOA vs the pass  , so the explosive Eagles run attack will be put into primary  action vs a porous Houston run D. What Im expecting here is for a run heavy game to take place, and for it to be grinding in nature which will aid us in my recommendation that we take an under stance here on this Totals offering. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games in November.

Under is 10-4 in Texans last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.

Thursday  night NFC sides  like Philly in away tilts vs AFC opp like Houston   have gone under 10 of  the L/12 times with the average combined ppg  averaging  35.6 .  Thursday non-division away sides  like the Eagles off 2 consecutive SU/ATS wins have gone under 8 straight times. Thursday night pups like the Texans  off a SU/ATS division loss  have gone under 7 straight times since the 2016 campaign.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 68-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

These teams secondaries look weak at best. The Vikings  rank 28th in passing defense giving up an average 272 ypg  while Cardinals   rank 25th in give up an average of /260 ypg . With two more than capable QBs playing today  (Murray vs Cousins) Im expecting a wide open down field affair with plenty of points going on the board. 

The Vikings are on fresh legs off a bye which sets up well for a all out attack. Note: NFC home favorites after their Bye Week going against another NFC opponent like the Cards  when the Totals offering is 51 or less points have gone over 20 of the L/22 dating back to the 2016 season.

 NFL sides with a .800  record or better as home favs of 6 points or less like the Vikings  going against a less than .500 side like  the Cards , when the Totals  offering comes in at between 45 to 54 points has gone over 14 straight times dating back to the 2014 campaign. 

 Minnesota has gone over the total in 15 of their L/20 home tilts including going over in 9 of 10 with a 49 or more totals offering from the books. 

The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 55 ppg go on the board. 

Play on the OVER

Chiefs QB Mahomes and company are explosive offensively but they go against a SF side that are  allowing  just  255 yards per game  and 14.9 ppg which gives them the No.1 rank in the league defensively. Meanwhile the 49ers Im betting will also want to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible and grind away with their ground game in effort to slow this game down to a grinding affair . All in all I expect this tilt to be lower scoring than the lines-makers and pundits expect. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER  vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more yards per return over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. SF is 2-12 UNDER L/14 dating back to last season. Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games following a straight up loss which was the case last time out. 

NFL Home teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with combined average of 40.4 ppg game.

Play UNDER 

I know the Jets D, has played well lately while the Broncos offense has struggled, but Im betting that Denvers  QB Wilson finally gets rolling this week, and that the Jets offense continues to uptrend. 

NYJ are 8-1 OVER  vs opposition  off Monday night  tilt like Denver. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DENVER) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-2 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 49-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate! 

Play on the OVER 

This totals selection is based on a projection system that I have used during the L/30 seasons. My assessment is that based on the type of football both sides are playing a lower scoring affair than the offered number should be expected. 

Ball State has gone under in 4 of their L/5 overall. 

Under is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 home games.Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 conference games.Under is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 games on fieldturf.Under is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games in October. Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

BALL ST is 10-2 UNDER ) after playing a game at home over the last 3 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored. Neu is 11-1 UNDER  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of BALL ST with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. 

CFB  team against the total (E MICHIGAN) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

CFB team against the total (BALL ST) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 62-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

Denver has gone under  10 straight times off a  fav loss which happened last week in a 12-9 defeat . They are also  0-6 UNDER after playing on a  Thursday tilt and  and have gone under 5 straight times in Monday night Football prime time affairs as a combined average of  (38.8 ppg )going  on the scoreboard.. The Broncos have also gone under in 12 of their L/14 division road tilts. Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS have gone under the total in 4 straight Monday night home games and have played some fairly los scoring affairs vs the Broncos with a combined average of 35 ppg scored when playing as hosts. Everything points to another low scoring sleeper in this spot play.Note: Monday night visiting sides off playing on Thursday last week at home like Denver have gone under 7 straight times dating back 6 seasons.

Denvers last 22 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 18-7 UNDER L/25 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. 

LA CHARGERS are 6-0 UNDER  after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 points per game scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience

Dallas last 3 meetings vs the Eagles has seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board.

McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached in his career.

Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 home games. Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 26-1 OVER L/39 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Texas shutout Oklahoma last week and the defense is obviously starting to show signs of up trending this season. Also after scoring 49 points last week a natural regression must be expected  fro the Longhorns offense, especially in a letdown scenario. Meanwhile , Iowa State no matter what their record is entering this game, have remained a tough side to play against as the defense remains staunch, allowing 10 or less points in 4 tilts and allowing more than 14 points only once this season. Everything points to a low scoring tilt that remains on the low side of the total. Note: 7 of the L/8 meeting in Texas have stayed under the total.

Campbell is 10-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (IOWA ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Lafayette goes with a back up QB against a  Marshall defense that ranks 13th in total defense and allows just 281 yards per game. Im betting they struggle to put points on the board. Meanwhile, the the flip-side the visitors, has played a fairly solid brand of D, allowing only 1 of opponents to breach the 21 point plateau against them, and Im betting their stoppers find a way to control the Thundering herds offensive attack . Advantage to the under. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45.8  ppg scored. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 UNDER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44.2 ppg scored.

Under is 7-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 7 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 15-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 21 games in October.Under is 39-15-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 55 conference games.Under is 13-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 27-11-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 39 games overall.

Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Under is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play UNDER 

KC played a big game and notched a victory against Tampa Bay last time out in a high scoring 41-31 affair,  the Chiefs now in a letdown situation regression should be on the table, and that will aid in this tilt staying on the low side of the total. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.LAS VEGAS is 38-19 UNDERL/57 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. Note: The Raiders found a way to win last time out, finally stopping the run ,which correlates with these trends. Under is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games following a straight up win.

The 5 Monday night games so far this season have seen a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games. 

 Reid is 21-6 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 265  or more PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Kansas City.

Play UNDER 

The Red River Shootout rivalry may not be as explosive as the lines-makers are suggesting according to my projections.  Texas and Oklahoma could be changing starters this week — Oklahoma to Pitt transfer Davis Beville because of the head injury suffered by Gabriel, and Texas from Hudson Card to Quinn Ewers, who started the first two games of the season. Changing QBs no matter who considered the starter can sometimes hamper offenses to start clicking again and thats what Im betting on here. A high scoring affair is not out of the question, but according to my projections as mentioned above a combined score that eclipses this number is unlikely. 

CFB team against the total (OKLAHOMA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with the average combined ppg clicking in at 47.5 . 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (TEXAS) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 42-9 UNDER with  a combined average of 60.5 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

 Nebraska’s is registered at a lowly  No. 124 overall defense and Rutgers Im betting piles up some points here well above their season average . I know the Scarlet Knights defense has been staunch but still projects to allow between 20 and 27 points according to my estimates which will help us easily eclipse this total. Note: Nebraska put 28 points and 35 points on the board against both their Big 10 opponents this season Northwestern and Indiana. 

RUTGERS is 6-0 OVER in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  56.3 ppg scored. RUTGERS is 14-4 OVER   off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more with a combined average of 52.3 ppg scored. (Ohio State pummeled them last week)

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (RUTGERS) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 22-3 OVER L/30 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Arizona is 4-0 OVER L4 vs Carolina with a combined average of 51 ppg going on the scoreboard ---  Arizona is also 10-1 OVER  L11 vs NFC South  with a combined average of 58.1 ppg scored.  Panthers are 7-0 OVER  L7 vs NFC West  with a combined average of 55.1 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Over is 7-2 in Panthers last 9 games in Week 4.

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

These two teams run the ball more than they pass it and are ranked in the top 5 in that category. With that said, I expect alot of time consuming running plays to eat up the clock and for a lower scoring very physical  type affair to be played. I know the Falcons have gone over in 3 straight games, all covers, but it must be noted that NFL home teams off 3 or more ATS victories  that  saw them  go ‘OVER the Total are 0-6 to the under the L/5 seasons.

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons of 37.3 ppg scored.

Cleveland has also gone over in 3 straight but regression here is an expected outcome according to my projections. Note: AFC away chalk  of  1 or more  points  like the Browns  have seen 16 of their L/17 tilts go UNDER  versus any NFC opponent  when the totals offering is  54 points or less. Clevelands last 21 games vs  NFC South division opponents has seen a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Colts QB Ryan threw three interceptions and was sacked five times in the loss to Jacksonville last week. The Colts had just 218 yards and nine first downs and Im betting things dont get much better vs a under rated top tier Chiefs D. Colts lack of attack will be a contributing factor in this game staying under the set total. 

Under is 7-0 in Colts last 7 games overall.Under is 6-0 in Colts last 6 vs. AFC.

These teams have gone under in 4 straight meetings with the average combined ppg clicking in at 34.8 . 

INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for btettors with the average combined score clicking in at 40.5 ppg. 

Play on under 

Oregon State has been explosive so far against sub par defenses, but today vs a top tier USC D, they will Im betting regress substantially which will directly have on effect of this total . Im leaning heavily on this number not being eclipsed. 

Jonathan is 6-0 UNDER  in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of OREGON ST with a combined average of 55.7 ppg. OREGON ST is 12-3 UNDER  in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game with a combined average of 49.1 ppg.

USC is 11-2 UNDER  in road games after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 44 ppg. 

 CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (OREGON ST) - after scoring 50 points or more last game against opponent after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 23-2 UNDER L/5 seasons with the average ppg scored coming in at 54.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER

Defending super bowl champion Rams looked asleep at the wheel in their opening game loss by a 31-10 count to the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night. Note:NFL teams  like LAR who scored 10 or less points in a Thursday night tilt  have gone  under 16 straight times  in their follow game dating back 5 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg going on the board. Atlanta also lost which is important as  NFL contests  have gone UNDER 28 of their L/36 opportunities  when both  sides  are of a home defeat  in their last game  . Everything points to this being a low scoring affair as the early season rust and attention to strong Defensive play remains important. 

Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 road games. 

LA RAMS are 16-4 UNDER  in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons

Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games on fieldturf.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

. NFL team against the total (ATLANTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points are 46-16 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Im betting the Giants will continue push the ball on the ground with Barkley and play a slow grinding type of football in the trenches. With Carolina looking offensively vulnerable and their D which was no 1 in the NFC last year being the key to their successes and failures Im  looking at beatable totals numbers as a  critical money making factor this season .  With that said my projections make this this number a viable to the under investment option  NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER  in home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 32.9 ppg scored  and have actually gone under in 12 straight homes games with a combined average of 34 ppg going on the board . NY GIANTS are 15-4 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.7 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 8-1 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. Giants have gone under 7 of their L/8 times as fav or dog of less than 3 points. Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Carolina has gone under 9 straight times with NO Saints on board in their following tilt which is the case this week. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS/ CAROLINA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 32-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Rutgers destroyed Temple last season by a 61-14 count l, and another projected explosive offensive output Im betting is on todays agenda, giving us an edge on a over investment cashing. Rutgers has already put 66 points on the board this season. 

Over is 4-1 in Owls last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-1 in Owls last 5 home games.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (RUTGERS) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games are 25-5 OVER L/30 seasons with a combined average of 54.7 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (TEMPLE) - team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that had a losing record are 50-17 OVER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with a combined average of 53.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

Louisville QB Malik Cunningham  has owned  FSU’s defense the last two seasons and Im betting he helps his team land some big offensive punches against what is still not a complete FSU D that  struggled to contain the QB vs LSU .Florida State defense ranks outside the top 90 in Passing Success Rate and Passing PPA Allowed.

. On the flipside  FSU’s offense matches up really well against Louisville’s weak rush defense and does more than enough damage here with the option being key for big downfield offensive gains behind improved QB play and 3 dimensional run game. 

Louisville HC  Satterfield and former QB  is 15-3 OVER  off 2 or more consecutive unders in all games he has coached in his career with a combined average of 60 ppg going on the board. 

Over is 11-1 in Cardinals last 12 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Louisville.

Play on the OVER 

Baltimores QB Jackson is still in contract negotiations, and may not be 100% focused and with key receiver Marquis Brown gone and Sammy Watkins also playing somewhere else this season, may not have as many options to move the ball as he once had. Offensive adjustments are now in play and could easily stymie the Ravens output early on this season and more importantly today. Meanwhile, NYJ  banged up starting QB Wilson may not play this week or see limited action. No matter what materializes Im betting the Jets remain limited in their offensive prowess, and could easily have problems against a supped up Baltimore D.  Everything points to this combined score not eclipsing the offered number. 

BALTIMORE is 22-10 UNDER L/32 in road games against AFC East division opponents with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Ravens last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games as a road favorite.Under is 11-4 in Ravens last 15 road games

NY JETS  in their L/6 September games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 36.8 ppg go on the score board. Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games in September.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (/BALTIMORE /NY JETS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 30-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with the average ppg total clicking in at 40.9 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

We. know how explosive Mississippi State can be with an air raid offense that never quits. But Arizona is use to explosive passing attacks and are currently well suited to deal with it. Meanwhile, I expect the Wildcats to really look to slow this game down via the running game, which Im betting makes for a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers current offering suggests. 

Under is 16-6 in Bulldogs last 22 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 21-8 in Bulldogs last 29 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. MISSISSIPPI ST is 24-10  l/34 UNDER  after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored. Last week they won 49-23 ,but the coaching staff were emphatic about shoring up the D this week. 

Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 home games. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 MISS STATE /ARIZONA) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 30-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 52.9 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield went 21 of 25 for 356 yards and threw four first-half touchdowns in last weeks 55-21 win over Idaho State and Im betting he does some damage again, while the Rebels D, will take some punishment from a PAC 12 offense that matches up well agains them. Note: Bears Cal QB Jack Plummer went 23 for 35 for 268 yards with three touchdowns and Im betting on even more consistency here as they get the rust off . 

Over is 6-1 in Rebels last 7 games overall.

Over is 4-0 in Golden Bears last 4 games in September. Over is 38-18-1 in Golden Bears last 57 non-conference games.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CALIFORNIA) - team that had a losing record last season, with just 9 or fewer total starters returning are 39-98 OVER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 54.2 ppg. 

CFBeams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UNLV) - team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that had a losing record are 49-17 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 53.2 ppg. 

Play OVER 

AFC Playoffs - Championship

The KC Chiefs exploded  offensively in a a back in forth game against the Buffalo Bills last week pulling off the over time win. Now Im betting they will be in an emotional letdown spot vs the visiting Bengals and their offense could easily be a little more muted this Saturday which Im betting will directly effect this total to the under. 

 CINCINNATI is 24-8 L/32 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season with a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 15-1 L/16  UNDER  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season  with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 7-0 UNDER  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 38-20 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with the average ppg  with a combined average of 40.2 ppg scored. 

NFL eam where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

For the most part Ben Rothlisberger had a great career but now father time has caught up with him, and their does not look to be much left in the tank . With that said, Im betting he and the Steelers have problems today on offense against a under rated KC defense. The Steelers because of their obvious offensive short comings will be prepared to play a grinding game that will concentrate on short passes and their running game which will eat clock time. On the flipsdie the Steelers D, after some ugly efforts pulled themselves together lately allowing 3 of their L/4 opponents no more than 13 points, and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs , especially on what is expected to be a windy cold night in KC this Sunday. 

PITTSBURGH is 29-12 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 14-3 UNDER L/17  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points with the average combined score clicking in at 34.4 ppg. 

NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 53-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY/PITTSBURGH) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 52-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

AFC Playoffs - Wild Card

Entering this game the Vegas D has allowed 20 points or less 4 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. In their season finale the Raiders did have a defensive breakdown, allowing 32 points in a 35-32 slugfest victory, but from a historical perspective the Raiders have clamped down in their following game especially if was a shootout, as is evident by the following trends.  Note:Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games following a straight up win.LAS VEGAS is 36-20 UNDER in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game with a combined score of 42.4 ppg scored. LAS VEGAS in their L/13 off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog have seen a combined average 42.6 ppg scored. 

Meanwhile, Joe Burrows and company are a virgin group with no big league play off experience, and this will be detrimental to them and their offensive cohesiveness. Despite of the accolades that Burrows gets there have been obvious interruptions their flow on offense and Im betting that will once again be an issue. 

Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 Wildcard games.Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 playoff games.Under is 8-1 in Bengals last 9 games in January.

Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 42-14 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total  (VEGAS /CINCINNATI) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 55-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

With so many players injured and the additional woes of covid protocols and the possibility of both teams resting starters at some point during this game, I dont feel their will be enough positive flow for a big offensive output here tonight between these foes. I honestly believe that no matter what these coaches say staying healthy for the play offs is the main goal, which to me relates to an affair with very little cohesiveness. 

Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in January. Philadelphia is 0-6 UNDER off a division road game victory. 

Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games as a road favorite.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 vs. NFC. Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Dallas road games have seen a combined average of 42.9 ppg this season. Note: The Cowboys are 0-6 L/6 division road tilts. 

DALLAS is 9-0 UNDER in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 32.3 ppg scored. 

McCarthy is 8-1 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 38.2 ppg scored.McCarthy is 9-2 UNDER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 39.2 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia with the average combined score in those tilts clicking in at 30.2 ppg. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing team (4.5 or more  YPR) against an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) after 8+ games, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 85-54 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

 LSU is decimated by injuries, especially on defense and the secondary and Im betting the Cats open up a little more than their MO usually dictates and this will relate to a faster pace than usual and more scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, LSU despite of their offensive problems down the stretch are still a SEC side with explosive output capabilities behind  4 star recruits   who would love to show case their talents for next seasons opportunity to start . With that said, Im betting on a higher scoring affair than many of the pundits estimate. 

Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. Big 12.Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 neutral site games.Over is 9-3-1 in Tigers last 13 non-conference games.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (KANSAS ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 31-6 L/29 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

Both these sides have strong defenses, but the offenses are being under rated in a game that could easily be a back and forth affair. My own projections estimate a combined score of closer to 50 giving us value with an over wager. 

Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games on grass.

 Gundy is 22-11 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST with a combined average of 69 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (OKLAHOMA ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 30-5 OVER L/29 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (NOTRE DAME) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), in non-conference games are 50-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Gator Bowl - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

Wake forest is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation averaging 41.2 ppg while on defense in road games allowed an average of 38.7 ppg. Meanwhile, Rutgers despite of their overall numbers have shown some offensive flashes of brilliance scoring 38 points on Indiana a month ago and are capable of putting points on the board in this type of non conference game.

You cannot properly prepare for a team like Wake Forest on short notice especially from a defensive standpoint, which has me believing  that the Demon Deacons will bring down the hammer here in a big way, while Rutgers will have no choice but to open up  offensively against  a D that is pedestrian to say the least. WAKE FOREST is 6-0 OVER   after a bye week over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 86.1 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

These two teams are explosive offensively and not so strong from a defensive standpoint. Oregon has averaged 31.4 ppg on offense this season while allowing 30.3 ppg on the road. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has averaged 38.4 ppg on offense while allowing a average of 33.2 ppg  on the road. With that said Im expecting a back and forth affair that should be highly entertaining and high scoring.  Im projecting both sides score above the 28 point level - Note: OKLAHOMA is 9-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 77.8 ppg scored. OREGON is 9-1 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 69.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Over is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 vs. Pac-12.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (OKLAHOMA OREGON) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG) after 7 or more games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 32-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Cheez-It Bowl - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Iowa States main mode of moving the ball has been through their super star RB Breece Hall who is out as he opts to skip this bowl game as he prepares for the NFL draft. The Cyclones will replace their RB but wont have nearly the success rate needed to get into position for scores which  Im betting will mute their offensive output.  Meanwhile, Clemson has had problems scoring all season long, but have shown that their D is of the top tier variety. Considering the above mentioned facts and scenarios a lower scoring affair should be expected. 

CLEMSON is 10-0 UNDER  on a neutral field where the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992. .Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 non-conference games.Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. Big 12. Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 games in December. Under is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 Bowl games.

IOWA ST is 10-2 UNDER  in a bowl game since 1992. Campbell is 10-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of IOWA ST.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (IOWA ST) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team against the total (IOWA ST) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against a good team (+50-+100 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 35-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Birmingham Bowl - Protective Stadium - Birmingham, AL

Houston was explosive this season offensively , but here against a SEC defense Im betting their offense will be muted. Remember this is a Tigers side that held Alabama to just 24 points. On the flip-side, the Auburn offense since Bo Nix went down, has been inconsistent and will have some issues here vs a Houston D that is allowing just 18.7 ppg in 9 games played on turf this season. 

AUBURN is 7-0 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 45.9 ppg. AUBURN is 6-0 UNDER   when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 46.1 ppg scored. 

Harsin is 18-2 UNDER (vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 45.4 ppg scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (HOUSTON) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 45-19 UNDER L/29 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Pittsburghs offense has been highly inconsistent this season, and have scored 20 or less points in 5 of their L/8 trips to the gridiron. Here today vs a KC side that is playing at a very high level behind a strong D,  Im expecting another muted offensive effort from the Steelers. It must be noted that before their last outing where they allowed 28 points, the Chiefs had  given up 17, 7,14, 9, 9, 9 points respectively.  On the flip-side, the Steelers achilles heal has been their rush defense, and today I expect Reid and company to pound the ball in anticipation of an expected success rate, which in turn will eat plenty of clock time and help the combined score stay on the low side of the total.

 Steelers have gone UNDER in 19 of their L/ 21 non-division away Tilts  when the Total is set at    53  or less points. Under is 6-0-1 in Steelers last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

KANSAS CITY is 38-18 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points with a combined average of 39.7 ppg scored.  KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play this season with a combined average of 31.7 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game are 90-44 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

 Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas City.

Play the  UNDER 

These divisional rivals have a recent history of fairly low scoring affairs as is evident by  a 37.8 ppg combined score in their L/4 meetings overall. History does not always necessarily repeat itself but it does have a tendency to mimic it. 

LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER   in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 7-1 UNDER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 37.6 ppg scored. 

Carroll is 16-7 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored. 

Arizona has gone under in 13 of their L/14 in games in the 2nd of back to back road games.

Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 after a MNF affair. 

Division games have a tendency of generally  being hard fought conservative affairs late in the season usually from game 11 onward into the play offs ( line of 44.5 to 60) as is evident by a 225-143-5 UNDER run for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 39-14 L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing teams are 33-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Jags average 13.8 ppg on offense this season and Houston average 13.6 ppg. These teams have problems moving the ball and nothing changes here today in sunny  humid Florida.  JACKSONVILLE is 10-0 UNDER  when playing with 6 or less days rest this season with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. JACKSONVILLE is 8-0 UNDER   after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread this season with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. Meyer is 6-0 UNDER (after scoring 14 points or less last game as the coach of JACKSONVILLE with the combined score clicking in at 33 ppg.  

Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 vs. AFC.Under is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 home games.

. NFL home favorites that off a division road shutout defeat like the Jaguars have gone a perfect 0-12 UNDER since 1996 when the Totals  line is  38 points or more. 

Houston has gone under in 3 straight divisional road games . Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 vs. AFC.

NFL Home teams against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 
UAB owned the best defense in Conference USA and allowed an average of just 18.7 ppg on the road. Mean while the UAB offense was inconsistent and does better with their flow with the run game, which Im betting they will implement and chew up alot of clock time. This for me has me leaning towards a combined score that fails to eclipse this offered Total. 

BYU is 7-0 UNDER as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less with a combined average of 43.7 ppg scored. Sitake is 9-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of BYU with a combined average of 48.9 ppg scored. 

Clark is 20-6 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56 as the coach of UAB with a combined average of 47.8 ppg scored. UAB is 7-0 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UAB/BYU ) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA) after 7+ games are 24-2 UNDER L/29 seasons for a 91% conversion rate.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UAB) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA) after 7+ games are 34-8 UNDER L/29 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

This divisional game Im betting will be a hard fourth grinding affair. I know anything involving QB Murray of Arizona is looked at as a point fest. However, because of the importance of this game for these teams, and the usual inter divisional biases, taking the under here looks to be a viable betting option in what Im betting will be a chess like lower scoring affair.

Arizona is  0-7 UNDER  L7 as divisional  Home Favorites  and from a historical perspective Arizona is  0-8 UNDER in their L/8 Monday night appearances. 

ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 38.1 ppg.

LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER   after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 9-1 UNDER  after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 season with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 104-58 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Washingtons D is something special in its current form, despite of mostly sub standard numbers overall. This group is as tough as nails and allowing 17, 19, 21 and 15 points respectively in their L/4 tilts and will not easily be pushed around at the line of scrimmage again this week. On the road the Football team are averaging just a little over 20 ppg in offense  Meanwhile, Las Vegas has mostly struggled on both sides of the ball, and finally got their first win 4 tries on the 25th of Nov vs the Cowboys. After that exhausting  36-33 offensive slugfest vs Dallas last time out  Im betting on an immediate reversion to the mean offensively for the Raiders this week with the added rust of an extended lay off to hamper their output and this help keep this game stay on the low side of the number.  .Dating back to the 2015 season all teams like Washington off 3 straight underdogs wins with a line of 43 or more have gone under 8 straight times.

Washington is 5-0 UNDER L/5 vs NDC West sides.

WASHINGTON is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37 ppg scored,

WASHINGTON is 16-4 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

 Tilts involving non conference conflicts (AFC vs NFC) have only seen 8 of the 32 games eclipse the offered total. 

Play UNDER 

Pac-12 Championship Game - Allegiant Stadium - Paradise, NV

When these teams played earlier this season, Utah owned the Ducks winning 38-7 and completely shut them down offensively and Im betting they will put their offense on mute again, in a tilt I project to have an output in the lower to mid 50s giving us value on this offered number. 

OREGON is 20-8  L/28 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more . Under is 10-2 in Ducks last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games as an underdog.

UTAH is 12-2 UNDER  in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Whittingham is 7-0 UNDER after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 47.1 ppg. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (UTAH) - outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games are 30-9  UNDER. L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

CFB team against the total (OREGON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are  60-26 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

Air Force took part in a 41-39 offensive slugfest last time vs Nevada. However, previous to that shootout, the Falcons had allowed 10, 14, 17, 20, 21, 21 points respectively and only twice during that span scored more than 24 points. The Falcons love to pound the ball on the ground and here in a emotional letdown spot after their previous blockbuster will now be more conservative and ready to get back to playing solid D. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers might indicate. Note: UNLV has averaged just 21.6 ppg on the road this season. 

AIR FORCE in straight  home games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined score of 39.2 ppg go on the board. AIR FORCE is 7-0 UNDER   off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34 ppg scored.  AIR FORCE is 21-5 UNDER in home games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (AIR FORCE) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 82-39 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

They both are dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thursday night in New Orleans which sets up well for a slower paced game. 

Two viable defenses go head to head in prime time football this Thanksgiving. Buffalo has allowed just 17.6 ppg and the Saints have given up an average of 21.8 ppg.  Thursday home pups  like the Saints  have gone UNDER all 5 times this season with a combined average of  36.8 ppg going on the board. Note: From a historical perspective it must be noted that the Saints have gone UNDER in   in their last 9  Thursday nighters with a combined score of 39 ppg getting registered on the scoreboard.  Meanwhile, Buffalo was asleep at the wheel last week and were upset  by a ugly 41-17 count by Indianapolis  which Im betting will have them ready for a  vigilant  bounce back effort especially on D. Note: BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER off a home loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 30.9 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored. McDermott is 12-4 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of BUFFALO with a combined average of 39 ppg going on the board. Under is 19-7 in Bills last 26 games on fieldturf.

NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Thanksgiving nigh tilts have stayed lower scoring in 10 of the L/14 events staying below the offered total by an of 5.8 ppg, with the under cashing 6 straight times. 

Play UNDER 

 SAN JOSE STATE ranks 112th in points per game and 114th in yards per game and Im betting will once again struggle for consistent offensive flow vs Fresno State. Meanwhile, the The Bulldogs’ secondary is one of the tops in the nation , ranking eighth in Passing Success Allowed, and 5th in  opponent completion percentage. On the flipside, Fresno State is more explosive offensively behind QB Haener, but it must be noted that the Spartans D is stout,  ranking 23rd in coverage rating and 34th in yards per pass allowed with the defensive line ranking registering at 40th in pass rush and 48th in Sack Rate. This is a big game for San Jose State so Im betting they play this game like a chess match knowing they are outgunned, which in turn Im betting  will see a muted combined score that fails to eclipse this offered total. 

SAN JOSE ST is 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FRESNO ST) - after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 42-14 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (SAN JOSE ST/FRESNO ST) - in conference games, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 188-122 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Northern Illinois clinched the  MAC West and motivation this week maybe an issue as well as trying to stay healthy before they go to Ford Field and play for the conference title. So Im betting on a muted effort here, by N.Illinois while Western Michigan really does not have alot to play after a  very inconsistent season as they are projected to get an invite to a lower level bowl. Western Michigan has one of the better running games and today I expect they will employ that in grinding fashion, as they try to keep the explosive attack of the Huskies off the field, which in turn will keep the clock churning in what Im betting will be a lower scoring game than the pundits anticipate. 

Note: These two sides rank 104th and 96th in tempo in the nation.

N.Illinois ha clinched a N ILLINOIS is 24-9 UNDER  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 52.9 ppg scored.N ILLINOIS is 17-6 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 with a combined average of 53.5 ppg scored during that 23 game sample size. 

CFB  team against the total (W MICHIGAN) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 85-36 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

We have a top tier West Division battle between Arizona and Seattle this Sunday afternoon, both were off losses with the Seahawks getting shutout . Seattle’s  enters this game playing a top tier brand of  defense football, allowing  13, 7, and 17 pts allowed in their last 3 games and  come in with a  having eclipsed the total just once in 9 games this season and were shutout last time out with a total of 17 points being scored . The average line of Seahawks tilts has been  48.9 with the average   combined score clicking in at  40.7 ppg.

Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games as an underdog.

Whether QB Kyle Murray plays (ANKLE) or is less than 100% Im betting he is kept mostly at bey. 

 It must be noted that NFL WEST DIVISION games  L/37 seasons  when the home team is an underdog of 6 pts or less  the under has hit 75% plus  of the time after game  8 or greater (15-49-1 UNDER ).

 Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 games as a road favorite.Under is 9-1 in Cardinals last 10 games on fieldturf.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games ARE 30-9 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - with a struggling  passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 46-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Green Bays defense shined last time out with a 17-0 polishing of Seattle. Im expecting their D, to stand tall again this week in this key divisional battle vs Minnesota, a side of a hard fought victory last week vs the Chargers. Note: Minnesota has allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their L/7 overall. Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 home games.

Under is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games overall.Under is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. NFC.

GREEN BAY is 8-1 UNDER (when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER vs struggling  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 UNDER   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season with a combined average of 34.5 ppg scored.

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games are 30-9 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLRoad teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season ere 42-14 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.

Play UNDER 

I know the Jets D is atrocious but the Dolphins are not a team that can take huge advantage of this situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are not trusting Mike White under center, and the play calling from the offensive coordinator is amateurish at best making futility the call here today and a total combined score that stays on the low side of the total.  

NY JETS are 12-2 UNDER L/14 in home games versus struggling  rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game in the second half of the season.

Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games in November.Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 vs. AFC.Under is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 41-14 UNDER  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return .

MIAMI is 61-39 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992. 

NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY JETS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 35 points or more in 2 straight games are 31-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 29-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York.

Play UNDER 

Texas has scored 9 points or less in 6 of their L/8 games and today if they can muster that many points Ill be surprised vs a Titans team that held KC to just 3 points a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Tennessee after 5 straight grueling games against top tier competition could end up using this game as a de-facto bye week, and not put the pedal to the metal or even be inclined to do so as they save some juice for the play offs . This equates to a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers might expect. 

HOUSTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games after scoring 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 36.1 ppg scored. DD road dogs like Texas off their bye week have gone under in 9 of their L/10 trips to the gridiron when the total is 42 or more. Texans are 1-10 L/11 under as a road dog of 3 points or more. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 39-13 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

NFL team against the total (TENNESSEE) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 36-14 L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

UConn has averaged 13.8 ppg on offense this season and my projections estimate a even lower aggregate here  vs UCF that allows just 15.8 ppg at home vs better competition. This outlook leans heavy on this being a game that will not see this combined score eclipse the offered number. Note: UCF allowed 55 points in a loss to SMU last week, but prior to that they allowed 7, 7 10 points respectively and a return to strong defensive play is key here for the home side. 

Malzahn is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 44.5 ppg scored. 

CFB  teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UCF) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game.are 24-3 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Memphis games have not eclipsed the total in 4 straight opportunities. Meanwhile, I know Houston ash really been lighting up the scoreboard but it must be noted  Holgorsen is 8-0 UNDER L/8 after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 52.7 ppg scored. Im expecting a harder fought battle than many expect with less points than the most expect.

MEMPHIS is 23-5 UNDER L/28  in road games in weeks 10 through 13 . 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (HOUSTON) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games are 33-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 52.3 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Duke cant stop the run or the pass, and they have pretty well given up any kind of gritty play which is necessary when looking for strong defensive efforts.Duke has allowed and average of 45 points per game in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. Duke also  ranks  (104th in Success Rate Allowed via the run),  (103rd in Success Rate Allowed via the pass) or the big play (124th). The Blue Devils have had success running the ball as was the case vs Virginia Tech and Im betting they have the same success again which will open play action down field for some scores vs a Louisville secondary that  gets torched for big plays mostly because they open up the field because of not being able to stop opposing ground attacks. Meanwhile, Louisville really put the boots to a good Syracuse D last week, by scoring 41 points, by mostly running our side the tackles, which Im betting will be a successful formula this week, vs a side that is porous and slow at best. This game has the makings of a big ugly scoring slugfest. 

DUKE is 11-2 OVER  in home games off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals with a combined average of 63 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (LOUISVILLE) - after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after 3 straight losses by 21 or more points are 25-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

This total opened around 63 on the board , but than sharp money has come in ever since and driven the number down to a bit to much according to my projections which sets my estimates in at 61 which gives us almost a FG edge to the over.  I know we are expecting to see some rain in Muncie tonight, but the field turf @ Scheumann Stadium will handle it well. Note:  Central Michigan has allowed 39, 30 and 30 points respectively in their L/30 while scoring 38, 42,54 points in their L/3 overall. Even if the Chippewas regress because of weather and other reasons  Im betting on them putting out  a +30 out offensive output here, while allowing +30 points to a Ball State offense that has shown flashes of brilliance scoring 45 on Western Michigan and 38 points on Eastern Michigan. At this offering we have value to the OVER. 

McElwain is 8-1 OVER (when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of C MICHIGAN with the average combined score clicking in at 69.7 ppg.C MICHIGAN  in  their L/9 November games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored.

Neu is 6-0 OVER  in home games off a road loss against a conference rival as the coach of BALL ST with the average combined score registering at 73 ppg. BALL ST  in their L/9 games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons have seen a average team offensive output of 34.9 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Play OVER

These teams have exhibited much better defensive efforts than offensive efforts this season, and Im betting things wont change tonight on the Blue Carpet as Boise State and Wyoming take part in a grinding game, that will see the combined score stay on the low side of the total. From a historical standpoint the L/6 meetings here have gone under the total on the Blue Carpet. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (WYOMING) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team against the total (BOISE ST) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER