The two most recent meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 57.5 ppg scored. 

The Steelers secondary has been inconsistent this season, and Im betting Eagles Hurts pushes them this week, as the Eagles coaching staff unanimously has said they need to have their passing game going as the post season approaches, and will be out to get things rolling today in a aggressive fashion after struggling last week vs the Carolina Panthers. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be without two starting defenders as- safety DeShon Elliott and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjob. On the flip-side I know the Steelers will be without star WR Pickens, but this is a great opportunity for some other guys to stand tall. All in all my projections estimate a score in the 47 point range giving us an edge to the over.

Philadelphia is 5-1 OVER L/6  in 2nd of back to back home games . and 8-2 OVER  L/10 non-conference  home games.  Nick Sirianni as a HC of the eagles in home games in the second half of the season is 13-3 OVER with a combined average of 53 ppg.

Pittsburgh 7-3 L/10 OVER  as non-division road dogs of  6  or less.Pittsburgh games after playing a game at home have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 47.6 ppg scored.Steelers QB Russell Wilson is 9-0 Over the total in last nine starts as non-conference road underdog.

Play over

 The lead referee for this game  Bill Vinovich, is 59% to the under historically in his career.

Military Bowl teams have gone 29-5 under overall L/34 and these two sides in particular are on a 16-1-1 under run! After their big win in AAC championship game vs Tulane - Army may find it difficult to bring the same  fire they had last week into a rivalry game that will see them face a ramped up Navy side . They could start slow offensively and that as well as this being guaranteed to be a physical affair make for a low scoring game. 

Play under

This non division game projects to be a high scoring one. Note: All game 13s non-division  NFL confrontations  are 12-1 OVER L/13  when the home team is favored  in these non-division tilts for a potent 92% conversion rate..  Tampa Bay in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points (6 games dating back to 2022) have seen a combined average of 52.6 ppg scored.   Las Vegas games after playing their last game on the road are 6-0 OVER with a combined average 50 ppg scored.

Over ha cashed at a  8-0-1 rate in the last nine in this  series.

Play over

The Bobcats also have a top-30 red-zone TD% and is 20th in overall YPP. and has 32 TD in 44 red-zone trips.     I know Miami O has a viable D, but the Bobcats according to my projections  will be putting a decent amount of points on the board here today vs the RedHawks,. Meanwhile, Miami O QB Brett Gabbert,  has  six seasons under center and has gone to the air regularly this season as is evident by making the  most pass attempts he’s had in a single campaign. He also has accumulated  10,000 career yards this season and has an 80/29 TD/INT ratio and also projects to have a decent day here.These two teams played during the regular season and Miami took a 30-20 victory and Im betting a combined score in the same vicinity here today.  CFB teams like Ohio where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game have seen a combined average score of 53.9 ppg since the 1992 season with a sample size of 35 games ( 29-6 OVER) . CFB team like Miami O against the total - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) have seen a combined average of 50.4 ppg which covers a huge sample size 300 gmes dating back to 2020 ( 60% of the games eclipsed the total).

Play over

These teams (programs)Michigan-Ohio St games have seen t 10 straight meetings go over the total,  Ohio State is a three touchdown favorite in this one according to Vegas, and my projections estimate they will put 4 plus TDS on the board here while allowing Michigans offense to put two plus TDS on the board. Ohio State games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 8-1 L/9 with a combined average of 59.3 ppg scored.Ryan Day games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games with a combined average 62.2 ppg.

Play on the OVER 

Its obvious what type of game we are going to have here today. Let the chant begin. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE. College football season finale games expected to be defensive helmet  to helmet smashers  have lived up to expectations . In the last  21 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-4-1 ( Lots of 39.5 on the board at the time of this selection.

Play under .

UNDER the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Egg Bowl series. This will be a hard fought game despite of discrepancies. 

Play on the UNDER 

This total according to my projections are just a little on the low side and the over offers up profit potential. No Thanksgiving game  has closed with a total of 40 or less since 2019 and only one Thanksgiving game closed under 40 since the 2007 season  with 2 of 3 eclipsing that number. (Dallas Home games on Thursdays have gone 5-0 OVER  last 4 years and the last 4 Thanksgiving day Cowboys totals have the eclipsed the offering. The over is 10-4 in past 14 Cowboys games on Thanksgiving dating back 14 seasons. Dallas/NYG L/5 meetings have all gone over the total. THURSDAY Division Home favorites when the Totals offering is  47  or less  the OVER 9-2  for a 82% conversion rate sinde the 2020 season.

Dallas home games after scoring 30 points or more last game are 8-1 over with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored. HC Mike McCarthy home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 17-4 OVER with a combined average of 58.2 ppg scored.

I know the Giants had a problem scoring last week putting just 7 points on the board, but it must be noted  NFL road dogs who scored 7 point or less playing as hosts last week , when the OU line is 47 or less are 10-1-1 L/12 opportunities. Also NFL home chalk of  4 points ore more  who were division road DOGS of +7 or more last week like Dallas ( +10) are 17-1 OVER in their follow up tilt. 

Play over

This is the 2nd meeting between these teams this season, and Im now betting both offensive coordinators their players have a better feel on attack each other defenses. In the recent past when these teams played in their 2nd game of the season all 3 games eclipsed the total with a combined average of 49.6 ppg scored.

NFL team like New England where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - a poor offensive team (14 to 18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 41-14 OVER since 1983 with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored.

Play on the over

The Lions offense is averaging 34  ppg on the season, and 38.5 ppg in the last month of play and virtually looks unstoppable entering this game at Indianapolis a team that ranks lower half of the league in ppg allowed at 19th. So Im betting the Lions, scoring more than 33 points and the Colts offense in chase mode in game that easily eclipses the offered total. Detroit games after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-0 OVER with a combined average of 60 points per game scored.Shane Steichen home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games are 5-0 over with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

Play over

Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 51-20 since the 2020 season with a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored.

Eight of UAB's last nine games against conference opponents at Protective Stadium have gone OVER the total .

These teams are  6-0 OVER  in all six h2h meetings in Birmingham since 2005.

Michigan MAC Trophy rivalry, will feature alot of points going on the board. 

The Broncos allow way to many  explosive plays on the ground. . CMU recent struggles Im betting get sorted out here in a big way. They up 34 points  on the board against a decent Eastern Michigan defense two weeks ago, and I now expect them to have big output here . Meanwhile,Western Michigan outgained Northern Illinois at home last week but despite of losing by a 42-28 count, and Im betting on even bigger output here.  Their quarter back Wolff  has been efficient this season  recording  19 passing touchdowns compared to five picks while completing 70% of his passes. (Two of those interceptions came last week)

Western Michigan games after playing their last game on the road are 11-1 L/12 OVER with a combined average of 66.1 ppg scored.Western Michigan games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored.

Play over

 Dallas starting QB Cooper Rush  was 13 for 23 with 45 yards in a 34-6 loss to Philadelphia last week and Im betting he struggles again vs top-10 team when it comes to EPA per play allowed (-0.059), including  the eighth-best Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.028) in the NFL. On the flipside, the Texans are just 20th in the league in EPA per play (-0.036) this year, and QB  C.J. Stroud looks like hes mired in a sophomore jinx. 

 that said, Im expecting the Texans to hit the gorund running in this tilt behind Joe Mixen, vs a Dallas defense that is last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.078) and been stepped over consistently vs opposing ground attacks. The combination of Dallas inability to score with consistency and the Texans offensive struggles and highly probable ground concentrated game plan Im betting we see large swaths of this game with very little points scored which gives credence to under selection cashing. 

key teams numbers: The Texans have allowed their opponent to run 10.0% of plays in the red zone this season -- 2nd-best in NFL; the Cowboys have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season -- T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Texans have allowed 13.0 PPG in the red zone this season -- 9th-best in NFL; the Cowboys have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season -- T-2nd-worst in NFL.

Home underdogs on MNF  dating to September 2021 (23 game sample size) have seen the  Under click in at  18-4-1  with a combined average of 37.3 PPG scored .

Play under

The Chargers own the No.1 defense in the NFL and a average offense. The Bengals can put points up on the board in bunches, but they could be fatigued here on a short week of rest and also start slowly after taking part in a 35-34 slugfest that they lost in heart breaking fashion.  

Sunday Night Football unders are 8-2 so far during this NFL campaign. Since the beginning of 2022, they're 35-13 (73%) to the under, going under the total by 4.5 points per game.

NFL road teams after playing  a Thursday road game  like the (Bengals) have gone under in 42 of 54 games  since 2016. 

Play under

SF 49ers are on 13-1 Over the total run as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points and their QB Brock Purdy is on 8-2 Over the total run vs. divisional opponents. Add to that HC Kyle Shanahan is 41-26 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since the 2017 campaign. 

These teams have a history of playing closely contested affairs with the Steelers having the upper had having won 7 of the L/8 meetings SU with the only Steelers loss coming by a 16-14 count, with none of those games 8 games seeing more than 33 points scored. Rinse and repeat.  NFL Road teams like the Ravens against the total - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game are 22-4 UNDER since 2020 with a combined average of 43.1 ppg scored.

Play under

NY Jets QB  Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014.

These two teams have gone  6-0  over in all six   meetings in Chapel Hill since 2003, and the L/4 games have seen North Carolina put 55, 59, 50, 49 on the board, and according to my projections against a lower tier D, another huge output is projected with Wake Forests capable offense doing damage against a Swiss cheese Tar Heels D that has allowed 35 ppg at home this season. N.Carolina has averaged 36..7 ppg in their L/3 overall.

Play over

LSU shit the bed last week in an ugly performance vs Alabama in a DD home loss. Their offense struggled, and Im now betting they come out like gang busters as they look for redemption. With that said Im betting LSU will be very aggressive from a offensive perspective in this tilt vs a Florida side that has allowed an average of  34.2 ppg in their L/3 overall and 31.2 ppg vs SEC opposition this season.. After being smashed by Texas last week in a 49-17 loss you can bet the Gators will also be primed to bounce back. Billy Napier games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival has gone 8-0 OVER L/8 with a combined average of 64.5 ppg scored with his team averaging 32.4 ppg.

LSU HC Brian Kelly games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses have gone over 8 of the L/9 times with a combined average of 76.5 ppg scored. with LSU putting an average of 48 plus ppg on the board during that span.

Play over

This line opened at 48, which is a key number. But Im betting the number we get here is still very viable as my projections estimate a score in lower 40s. Im expecting an old fashioned grinding affair with the combined score staying on the low side of the number.  These teams average   95th in plays per game between overall between them.  Bret Bielema games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 14-3 to the under with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored.Michigan State away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 9-1 UNDER L/10 with a combined average of 41.7 ppg scored.Michigan State away or neutral games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better are 7-0 UNDER since the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 41.3 ppg scored.

Play under

The Commanders have proved they can score this season behind duel threat  QB Daniels , but their D, remains their Achilles heal , as they their  EPA per play allowed registers at  (0.050), and their Dropback EPA per play (0.100). With that said, a up-trending Philadelphia offense that has seen their QB Jalen Hurts put 9 touchdowns on the board in his L/6 games, and has registered a 115 passer rating over that span and has only thrown one interception Im betting has a big night. The ability of Hurts to shred the Commanders secondary will open up the field for RB Barkley who Im betting runs rough shot here tonight. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s here today.  Philadelphia home games in the second half of the season dating back to least season have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 59.6 ppg scored.Philadelphia home games after 3 or more consecutive wins have gone over 7 straight times dating back to the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 55.2 ppg scored. Philadelphia home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 61.4 ppg scored. Washington games in road games have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 57.2 ppg.Washington away or neutral games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored.

Play over

Kent State according to my projections will not eclipse DDs here today . The Flashes were shutout last week, thanks to an abysmal performance from QB Ruel Tomlinson who got his first start. He was 8-of-18 for 62 yards and threw a pick, along with five sacks . He is expected to start again tonight vs Miami O and projects to struggle again. The Flash have been shutout 3 times this season, and scored 6 or less points four times. UNDER the total is 9-1 in the last 10 in this  series. Miami O HC Chuck Martin games versus poor offensive teams - averaging 310 yards/game is 7-0 UNDER as coach of Redhawks with a combined average of 27.2 ppg scored.Miami (OH) games when playing against a team with a losing record are 7-0 UNDER L/7 with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored.

Play under

 Looking at Central Michigan defense had me looking at reasons to bet this game over the offered total  of around 51-52 points.  The chips has allowed over six yards per play in conference games to this point  and the my projections estimate the  Rockets are going to able to move the chains and produce adequate offensive production that will help us get over this number. The Chippewas defense allows 31 points per game with a lot of points being scored on explosiveness. Central Michigan’s defense ranks 128th in Explosiveness allowed which is obviously a crap ranking. On D, the Chips  rank 73rd in Rush Success Rate allowed as opposed to 94th in Pass Success Rate allowed.  The Rockets Quarterback Tucker Gleason leads a consistent offense that averages 29 points per game. . Toledo also rank 60th in Rush Success Rate and 30th in Pass Success Rate. I know Toledo has done decently from a defensive perspective, but the CMU dual-threat QB duo and above average  running game that ranks in the top 40 in yards per carry should help bolster their offense production and see the combined score  get us over the number. Toledo has gone over in all 4 home games this season, while Central Michigan 3 of 4 road games and 4 of 5 MAC confrontations.  Central Michigan away or neutral games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 61.8 ppg scored. HC Jim McElwain games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) have gone over 10 of 12 games have gone over 59.9 ppg.

Play on OVER

These teams have a recent history of playing lower scoring affairs with the L/4 meetings resulting in an average combined score of 32 ppg. Currently Miami ranks dead last in the NFL in scoring and here on the road Im betting will once again struggle to points on the board. As for the Rams they rank 18th in the NFL in scoring and that inconsistency according to my matchup projections will continue this Monday night. I know the Fins have looked better offensively in their L/2 games after not scoring more than 15 points in 5 straight trips to the gridiron, but they will have probelms scoring in this road venue. Just like Miami has increased their offensive output in their L/2 so has the Rams D also picked up its stopping efficiency ranking  third in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.095), and  have very strong stopping the run. NFL Road teams against the total - in a game involving two sub par defensive teams (23-27 PPG) in the 2nd half of the season, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 25-5 UNDER with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 39-10 UNDER since the 2015 season with a combined average of 43.2 ppg.

Miami games off a loss against a division rival have gone under 6 straight times with a combined average of 35 ppg scored.

LA Rams games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season are 8-1 under L/9 with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

Play under

The last 8 meetings between these two teams have seen a combined average of 50 ppg scored. My projections once again estimate a combined score in this range and  gives credence to an over wager cashing for us today. NFC South same- division tilts  like this have  gone  7-0 OVER so far this season and that trend should continue today. The combined average of the above mentioned games were 57.8 ppg. New Orleans is in complete free fall and will now in desperation mode become more liberal in the attack schemes and just open up . It must be noted NFL teams on Sunday's  off 4 or more consecutive  SU and ATS losses have gone over 6 straight times. 

Play on the OVER 

 LSU owns  one of the nation’s premier offensive lines, a unit that has allowed just 4 sacks in 8 games, only 24 tackles for loss all year and Im betting  they will give their QB Garrett Nussmeier  all the protection he needs to go airborne consistently today which to me is a not brainer considering the Tigers are one of SECs worst rush offenses at 3.34 ypr. On the flip-side Alabama will also have to unload in back for fashion behind  QB Jalen Milroe who has the ability to  torch LSU with enough explosive plays to put a boatlaod full of point on the board. 

Alabama games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 5-0 over dating back to last season with a combined average of 62 ppg scored.

LSU games against conference opponents have gone over 10 of the L/12 overall with a combined average of 69.7 ppg scored. LSU games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 11-2 OVER dating back to last season with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. LSU games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. are 8-0 OVER L/8 opportunities with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

The last time these teams faced each other a high scoring shootout took place, but now on a short week of rest and  each D feeling more comfortable  with facing  each sides offensive schemes Im betting a contrarian bet that favors the under. I know both defenses have looked porous at times but the Bengals for example have played much better as this season has progressed as was evident last week when they held  the Raiders to just 3.7 yards per play .On the flips side, QB Burrows of the Bengals, will be without key target Tee Higgins this week.Since he faced the Ravens back in week 5 Burrows has only surpassed the 250 ypg plateau once, without Higgins who played that game against the Ravens. Im on the other side, of this very public line movement, and recommend an under wager. 

NF Home favs with a line of 52 or more points have gone under 15 of the L/17 games  last 4 years! Longer term there have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 plus points totals offerings,  with the Under converting at a 73% rate going  22-8  UNDER .

Cincinnati 6-3-1 Under the total since 2014 in TNF prime time affairs. Cincinnati versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 lr more yards/play have seen a combined average of 46.3 ppg scored spanning a 6 game sample size dating back to last season. \

Play under

n Baltimore games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 8-1 UNDER since the 2022 season with a combined average of 29 ppg scored. John Harbaugh home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games have gone under 19 of 25 times with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (Baltimore)- after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 50-20 UNDER wince 1983 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

 Overall  Coastal Carolinas D,  has been atrocious, and recently they allowed 516 yards to Louisiana and followed that up by allowing 511 yards to Troy.  Coastal Carolina is allowing 428 yards and 33 ppg while giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  Chanticleers pass defense is not exhibiting much stopping power and  has allowed a 17/4 TD/INT ratio and a completion percentage over 60%  and are allowing more than six yards per play . Thats something  App States  QB Joey Aguilar can take advantage of.He recorded  a 33/10 TD/INT ratio last season and gained more than 3,700 yards. This season,  thanks to his excessive  aggressiveness has  recording 18 TDS and 10 interceptions which are not as prolific as last years action  ,but today he should do fine.  Meanwhile, the Mountaineers  defense has also been bad, as is evident by  giving up  6.9 yards per play.  App State have victories in their L/2 tilts  vs Georgia State and Old Dominion despite allowing 884 total yards  Coastal Carolina stake no prisoners  big-play offense have recorded 26 plays of 30+ yards  and 14 plays of 40+ yards ranked top 15 in all of College Football and will have a open alley to put a boatload full of points on the board. Im betting we have a real shoot out here and a combined score that gets eclipsed. Coastal Carolina home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 6-0 OVER with a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored.

OVER

The Colts and Vikings are off losses last time out and and will be primed to get back into the winners circle this week in this dome game. 

Some interesting stuff went down when the Colts benched QB Anthony Richardson in favor of veteran Joe Flacco after Richardson “took himself out”  of their last game -for a play in the fourth quarter because he was tired. When know Flacco can ball when given the opportunity and thats what Im betting on this week from the veteran. You have to remember Richardson has not done all that well this year so this is not a down grade situation. When Flacco played in Weeks 4 through 6, Indianapolis had a Dropback EPA per play of 0.290 and things will really get rolling this week in the aerial attack for the Colts. That Flacco data was the fifth-best mark in the league in that three-week span. The Colts Flacco, owns a 102.2 passer rating this season compared with a 57.2 passer rating for Richardson. Flacco has thrown for 716 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception this season.

Flacco has averaged 7 more ppg in his starts for the Colts  than Richardson. With the pass attack upgraded that should unleash the running game behind Johnathon Taylor to also get untracked. Meanwhile, despite of having. a quality D, the Vikings are ranked  just 19th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.079) since Week 4. Im also betting on Vikings Sam Darnold to start to roll agin after cooling down recently after a fast start. Sam Darnold will make his eighth start of the season. He has recorded a 107.2 passer rating while throwing for 1,610 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. line here is  that- these are two proficient offenses  with two inconsistent  defenses  playing in what will be a face paced affair in a dome game which Im betting leads to a higher scoring affair. 

Minnesota   home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread have gone over 7 straight times with a combined average of 54.7 ppg scored. Kevin OConnell in home games off a road loss has seen a combined average of 51 ppg go on the board L/5 opportunities.Kevin OConnell games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season are 5-0 OVER with a combined average of 56.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play over

Ravens own the best offense in all of football  averaging 452 ypg and  have gone over in  7 of 8 tilts averaging a combined 56.4 pp), and the worst D in the entire NFL at this point in the season. Meanwhile, the Broncos are starting to juice up their offense behind QB Bo Nix and have registered an average of 27.8 ppg in offense over their L/4 games with all of them eclipsing the total. Everything points to this totals offering being eclipsed. 

Play over

UNDER the total has converted in 11 straight in the Air Force-Army rivalry. Im betting on another grinding affair that stays under this totals offering. 

Dak Prescott and company have had problems, moving the ball and their problems will continue today according to my projections against this SF D. Meanwhile, Im betting on the Cowboys playing a conservative game as mistakes can not be tolerated in a almost certain must win situation for the Boyz. 

NFL team against the total  (49ers)- off a home loss by 10 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 23-4 UNDER since the 2020 season for a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored.

Mike McCarthy away or neutral games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game have gone under in 13 of L/14 with a combined average of 39 ppg.

Play on the UNDER

 Buffalo according to my projections will score 30 plus points here today according to the line offerings from the various books( lines-makers). Seattle offense exploded last week putting 34 points on Atlanta on the road.  The Seahawks  have not scored less than 20 points in a single game this season, and project to hit into the low 20s here.  both QBs have been explosive this season, and Im betting on a rinse and repeat of past incarnations of this series here today. All 10 games in the series since 1995 went Over the total. 

Buffalo has gone over in 10 of the L/11 vs NFC West. 

Play over

These two teams recently do not exhibit alot of offensive qualities , but Im betting on a break out here this week to some extent that helps us eclipse this total. The last six games of the series have gone Over the total with a combined average of 60.8 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - outrushed by their opponents by 1 or more yards/carry on the season, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 26-5 over with a combined average of 47.1 ppg scored.

Play over

Houston 14-1 to the Under in the last 15 rematch games vs. the Colts.

 Boise State has won the Stats battles and all 6 of their games  by an average of +142 net yards per game), Their opus operandi has been via a top tier run game that is averaging  +7.9 net yards Per Rush behind Heisman Trophy candidate  Ashton Jeanty.Jeanty has 1,248 yards on 126 carries for 9.9 yards per pop and 17 rushing touchdowns and can make the best of defenses look average at best.  

Broncos have the second-best offense in the nation in yards per play.  and going against UNLV side that  gave up 44 points to Syracuse at home  I expect mucho points to go on the board.  On the flip-side, UNLV ranks 21st in yards per play and project to have a big output night vs a Boise State side, that gave up   82 points in the first two games of the season versus Georgia Southern and Oregon .

With that said, Im betting on a high scoring affair that eclipses this total.

Boise State games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 66.8 ppg scored

UNLV games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or better yards/play havre gone over 9 straight times with a combined average of 73.7 ppg.

Play over

Jacksonville State is ranked 15th in yards per play g and have done even better  in league play, garnering a whopping 7.6 yards per play in two Conference USA games and according to my projections are  to get into the upper 40s here again in this tilt vs Middle Tennessee State that ranks  127th in yards per play allowed on defense at 6.69. MTSU has scored consistently and averaged 6 ypp in conference play ( 3 games), and also project to get in the high 20s which gives credence to an over wager in this mid week  spot pay /play situation. Note: Jacksonville State when playing against a team with a losing record ( L/7) have averaged 46.4 ppg with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 68.8 ppg scored. Middle Tennessee has allowed four of its previous five FBS oppoennts  to top the 42 point plateau on offense. . Jacksonville State won 45-30 on the road last season when these teams met and a similar output is a viable opportunity to cash a over ticket again. 

Play over 

SF has been lighting up the board of late, but they now go against a rested Chiefs side, with a top tier D. The Chiefs are allowing  just 3.8 yards per rush and 6.5 yards per pass attempt.  KC is scoring 23.1 PPG, allowing just 15.6 PPG while playing a conservative brand of football which Im betting will be the case again here this afternoon. 

Kansas City has played five games this season and four tilts  have not eclipsed the  had 47 point plateau. Dating back to the 2023,  47 or less points have been  scored in 15 of 18 games the Chiefs have played .

NFL road teams like the Chiefs  coming off their bye week are 31-12 UNDER L/43 opportunities   add to that KC is 10-3-1 Under the total in their last 13 post-bye week games and an edge for a under wager comes into play .  

Play under

. The  Rams are averaging just  18.8 ppg  on offense this season while the  Raiders are averaging only 18.2 ppg on the current campaign. Both sides have a boatload full of key offensive injuries and should once again battle with production problems in this battle.

Rams away or neutral games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse are 5-0 UNDER dating back to the 2023 season with a combined average score of 39.2 ppg going on the score board.

NFL team like Vegas where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after 2 straight losses by 14 or more points are 37-11 UNDER since the 2015 season with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored .

NFL team like the Rams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two sub average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) are 44-15 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 41 ppg scored.

HC Sean McVay home games in October games 12-2 UNDER with a combined average of 38.6 ppg.Sean McVay home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season is a perfect 6-0 with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

Play under

Marshalls  secondary is of the top tier variety, and they will be a nightmare for the  Panthers' passing attack. Georgia State does not  run the football well , and that means according to my projections a lack of point production as was the case last week where they scored just 14 points in a loss.v Important favotr here : Marshall ranks 29th in Passing Success Rate and 54th in Havoc., Marshalls starting QB is out for the season, and instead they will go with a QB by committee option which has seen them stall on red zone dirves. Marshall ranks  outside the top 100 in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. These are keys to what Im betting will end up be a lower scoring affair.  Georgia State games as a road underdog.have gone under 5 straight times. HC Charles Huff games versus poor rushing teams - averaging 120 or less rushing yards/game have gone under 7 straight times with the average ppg diff clicking in at 40.8 ppg scored.

Play under

Troy has struggled on defense all season, outside the top 100 in EPA/Play this season and South Albamas explosive offense that  has ,   seventh best rankings  in EPA/Play this season under aggressive offensive minded  head coach Major Applewhite.NOTE:  when Gio Lopez is playing QB  the offense is 10th in EPA/Pass, per Game   with a 12-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On the flipside the Jags D is sub par, and Troy Im betting also does some damage here in chase mode in  a tilt that eclipses this total. 

Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 41-14 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 63.7 ppg scored. 

CFB teams like Tro where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 82-33 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 60.1 ppg scored.

Play over

This a lower total but for good reason it features the #1 and #2 scoring defenses  in the NFL.  (The Broncos are  allow ing 14.6 ppg  while LA Chargers   allow 12.5 ppg ). Both offenses have been abysmal this season, ranking 31st and 32nd respectively. Denver is off a big win last time out, but it must noted that the Broncos have gone under in 13 of their L/14 games after a win by  14  points or more.LA Chargers games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points are 8-1 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 31.3 ppg scored. Everything points to a low scoring grinding type affair.

Play under

My projections estimate a combined score in the 55 point range, New Mexico is off a bye week and will be rusty on offense out of the gate. Meanwhile, Jacksonville could show some fatigue here on a short week of rest that saw them play last Friday, and could also start slowly.  The Aggies have a total of 11 offensive touchdowns this season,  as QBs  Santino Marucci, Parker Awad, and Deuce Hogan have combined for a 40.9% completion rate and a 4/6 TD/INT ratio. Their lack of firepower helps this sscore stay under the listed Total. 

Home teams like Jacksonville State where the total is between 56.5 and 63 - with a poor defense - allowing 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 38-13 UNDER since 1992 with a combined average of 51,7 ppg scored.

CFB teams like New Mexico State where the total is between 56.5 and 63 - after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 55-21 UNDER since 1992 with a combined average score of 55.4 ppg scored.

Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points - outgained by opponent by 80 or more passing yards/game on the season have seen a combined average of 51 points per game scored from a sample size of 57 games dating back to the 2020 season.

 New Mexico State away or neutral games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 6-0 UNDER since the 2023 season with a combined average of 44 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

Both teams are banged up with a boat load full of injuries on offense , and their collective flow should be curtailed this Monday night giving us an edge with a under wager. Also the defenses of these sides have been well above average and more top tier D should be expected in this tilt. 

Kansas City away or neutral games after the first month of the season are a perfect 6-0 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. Kansas City away or neutral games after playing a division game are 6-0 UNDER since the 2022 season with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored. Kansas City games in games played on a grass field are 12-3 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored.

NFL teams like New Orleans where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 37-9 UNDER since the 2015 season . New Orleans have gone under in 5 straight Monday tilts  L/3 seasons with a combined average of  31.2 ppg scored. 

Andy Reid games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points are 17-4 UNDER with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.Andy Reid home games off 2 consecutive close road wins by 7 points or less. are a perfect 5-0 UNDER with a combined average of 32.8 ppg scored.

In the last 4 years. AFC home teams have gone under the total 15 of the L/18 .  

AFC Conference teams like KC have gone under in 15 of their L/18 in the last two seasons befor a  Bye Week.

Play on the under 

 The Falcons won last week,  despite of not t scoring a single offensive touchdown. QB Kirk Cousins has been less than consistent and because of this the Falcons are ranked  just 21st in the league in EPA per play (-0.048). On the flipside, QB Baker Mayfield has been more efficient, but in this road environment will be asked to a little bit more conservative and lean on the run game.  Both these coaches are defensive minded, and with the overall state of each side coming into this tilt an under wager looks to be a viable investment option.

The total in Tampa Bay away or neutral games in the first half of the season are a perfect 8-0 UNDER L/8 dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 33 ppg scored. Tampa Bay games after a win by 10 or more points. which was the case last time out, has seen 8 of 9 games stay under the total with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored . Tampa Bay games after a 2 game home stand are 6-0 under dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored.

Atlanta has gone under 7 straight times on Thursdays.

Play on the under

The Packers ran the ball alot last time out and Im betting they will lean on their run game again because the banged up QB Jordan Love maybe less than 100% if he plays and if a backup takes to the filed - which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Game 4 division home favorites  like the Packers  have gone UNDER  15 of the L/16 times  in the last seven years for a 94% conversion rate. 

The Vikings are 2nd in the NFL Defensive Points per Game allowed  at( 10) The Vikings have pressured opposing passers at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL this season (38.6%) while recording a sack on 11.0% of dropbacks (second highest)

.Note: The last time the Vikings went into Lambeau Field was October of last year. They easily won the game 24-10 shutting down Love and the Packer offense. It was a grinding affair, and Im expecting a repeat type lower scoring game . 

Minnesota games in the first half of the season are 9-1 UNDER with a combined average of 41 ppg scored dating back to last season.

NFL team like Minny where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 116-61 UNDER dating back to the 1983 season .

Play under

New York took out  the Broncos 31-21 in Week 5 last season, and Im betting on a similar type combined score here this Sunday . 

The Jets QB Rodgers was in top form vs  New England last time out , completing 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns and projects to  have similar numbers in this matchup vs a Broncos D due for negative regression  . On the flipside, the Broncos  QB Bo Nix, the No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft, had 216 yards on 25-for-36 passing to go along with 47 rushing yards and a TD against Tampa Bay for his first career victory. He also projects to have a strong effort .  Note:

NFL road underdogs playing off a road pup victory  the previous week like the Broncos have gone over 16 of the L/19 times.

Despite of both sides being defensively efficient, Im betting on this tilt eclipsing the total based on QB play and offensive up-trending data. 

These teams have combined for an average of 53.5 ppg at Metlife Stadium in their L/4 meetings in this venue.

NFL team like the Jets where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 48.6 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival, in September games are 54-19 OVER L/51 seasons with a combined average of 48.2 ppg scored.

Play over 

This number is low, actually just a bit to low according to my projections.  Michigan L/16 games as a home favorite have seen a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored.

The last eight games of the Minnesota/Michigan  series have gone Over the total. 

CFB team like Michigan against the total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have seen a combined average of 50.6 ppg scored ( spanning 138 games dating back to the 2020 season).

System applies to: Michigan over.

Army has  outscored the opposition 103-28, with their ground heavy option offense  including 61-21 in their two FBS games. The offense is clicking and Im betting they will continue to produce here this evening vs  a Temple side on short rest.  It must be noted the Owls when they faced the option offense of the Navy  Midshipmen they allowed 38 points in a DD loss. Im betting Temple will also get run over defensively again, but their offense is starting to up trend as was evident when they scored 45 points and had 6.6 yards per play against Utah State last week behind a solid looking QB Evan Simon. 

Temple games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 68.7 ppg. Temple home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse have seen a combined average of 58.6 ppg scored going over 5 straight times dating back to last season .

Army West Point games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored.

CFB Home teams like Temple- sub par team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more last game have seen  an of 54.5 ppg scored spanning 95 games going back to the 2015 season

CFB Home teams like Temple where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in September games are 43-15 OVER L/9 seasons for a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total - dominant team like Army outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a poor team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 48-18 OVER since 1992 with a combined average of 61.6 ppg.

Play over

QB Jayden Daniels is a decent looking yiung QB, but has hard problems getting the ball into end  zone . It must be noted that rookie QBS  have not been offensively prdiceint in  early-season NFL play  that has been evident by a 26 of 35 games staying  Under the total in weeks 1-3 . Im betting Danilels issues with TD proficiency continue for now against what will be a hyped uo Cincinnati group that will be looking to play a complete game. It must be noted that  Cincy is  5-2-1 Under  L/ 8  under the Monday night lights while , scoring just 17.6 PPG.  Also the under is a perfect 5-0 UNDER in Zac Taylor games against NFC East division opponents with an average of just 37 ppg scored.

 NFL team against the total - off a road loss like the Bengals , when playing on Monday night are 30-7 UNDER since 2020 with average combined score clicking in at 39.1 ppg . NFL team like Bengals where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 37-8 UNDER since 2015 with a combined average of 43 ppg scored .

Play under

Andy Dalton will take over for Bryce Young at QB this week, will Im betting give the Panthers some offensive cohesiveness. Unfortunately, nothing can be done for Carolinas Swiss Cheese D, allowing 36.6 ppg .The Raiders offense is projected by me to light the Panthers secondary up like a Christmas Tree. This combination of factors bodes well for a combined score that eclipses this total. Note: NFL road underdogs of 13 or less points like the Panthers . that scored  3 or less points playing as hosts in  their previous game  have gone OVER in 11 straight opportunities dating back 7 seasons. 

Play over

Im betting the Hawkeyes will be in. alook ahead situation here vs Ohio State up next, and could find their offense just going through the motions earlier on this game vs a tough Minnesota D that has not allowed points since the 4th quarter of their game against North Carolina to start their season. Both teams thrive via the rush and that will eat clock time which in turn gives credence to a lower scoring sleep fest. Kirk Ferentz games when the total is 35 or less as coach of Iowa : 9-1 UNDER (90%) with an average over/under of 31.9 with a combined average of 27.4 ppg scored.Kirk Ferentz in a road game where the total is 35 or less of Iowa has seen a combined average score of 26.4 ppg scored spanning 5 games.

Play under

The under is a perfect 6-0 in the last six Vandy-Mizzou series in Columbia. My projections estimate a combined score in the high 40s ansd no more than 51 points which gives us value with betting the under on this totals offering. Teams like Missouri total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have gone under are 90-46 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 50 ppg scored. CFB teams like Vanderbilt where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 69-33 UNDER with the average combined score clicking in at 50.1 ppg.

Play under

These two teams the Jets and Pats  have  stayed under the total in their L/ 4 head to head matchups with an average combined score of 24.3 combined ppg going on the board. When considering this game takes place on a Thursday night-it must be noted that  NFL games on that night  have stayed under the total 15 of the L/17 times with a 41 point or less Totals offering from the books.  Finally these teams are both playing .500 ball this season, which sets up well for a lower scoring affair, with  a line of 44 kor less - In tilts featuring evenly matched records they  have failed to eclipse the total 13 of the L/15 times ( 44 pts or less). Ive seen nothing from positive from these offenses that will turn me off this being a lower scoring snooze feast affair. Note:, The Pats own  a Net EPA of +0.09 and NY Jets  have recorded  a Net EPA of -0.01-New England is Top 5 in the league in run frequency over the first two week of this season and on the flipside QB Aaron rodgers is still not 100% after repairing his achilles and will also be letting the run game develop around him as he gets more comfortable in the pocket.  With that said, Im betting a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the number.

New England games off a non-conference game.- have gone under 5 straight times with a combined average of 27 ppg scored.

Robert Saleh away or neutral games in September games is 5-0 UNDER with ana verage of 33.2 ppg scored.

Play under 

For much of their first game of the season vs Tennessee the Bears offense looked extremely inconsistent, and despite of winning they looked like their offensive production was a mirage. Here against a stacked Texans D, Im betting they will have issues getting scores . On the flipside, the  Texans D  [vs OPP] After SU win have gone under 8 of the L/10 times.   Texans Against limited mistake offenses averaging less than 1.5 turnovers per game have gone under in 11 of the L/14 . Meanwhile, Against decent-scoring teams like Houston averaging 24 PPG or more the Bears have gone under 11 of the L/15 games. Bears  [vs OPP] After a conference SU win are 36-21-2 UNDER. 

Chicago  in game 2 s are 1-6 O/U L/7 seasons with a combined average of  (36.4 ppg scored).  Texans have gone over in 3 of their L/4 vs the Bears with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored in those 4 games.

NFL Road teams like Chciago against the total - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. are 29-4 UNDER L/4 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

System applies to: Chicago.Play under

Derek Carr was extremely efficient in his opening game this season with New Orleans as he posted a 142.5 QB rating while converting on 19 of 23 passes with the Saints putting 47 points on the board in a big DD win.Meanwhile QB Prescott and company are offensively  loaded and proved it in a DD road win vs Cleveland and project to have success here again today in Dallas where they home games saw a combined average of 55.2 ppg go on the board in the 2023 campaign Im betting on more offensive fireworks again in a rinse and repeat situation. NFL Game 10 or less when  both teams are off an ATS win margin of +14 or more pts have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER. Dallas L/23 games played on turf have seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. The Cowboys last 12 home games with a line of 52 or less have seen the total eclipse 11 of those times. Also All non-division underdogs  like the Saints off a victory  of 28 or more points  have seen the total go over in 12 of their L/13 opportunities dating back 12 seasons. 

Play over

 The Blue Devils routed the Huskies 41-7 a season ago at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. However, this is a better version of Connecticut, and they should do some damage here offensively in the rematch. Unfortunately Im projecting that the Blue Devils will also show off some explosive offensive firewrks in what Im betting will be a higher scoring affair. Note: UConn owns a current 13-game road losing streak against power conference (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC), the Huskies' average margin of defeat is 28.5 points.  The five losses in Mora's tenure have an average margin of defeat of 39.2 points, including last year's 59-3 loss at Tennessee and a 59-0 loss at Michigan in 2022. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - off a road win, in September games.like Duke have gone 30-9 OVER L/4 seasons with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

LATE STEAM- OVER 

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

Im expecting this to be a hotly contested game with less offensive fireworks than the linesmkaers expect.  The lat three meetings here in South Florida between these teams has seen a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Forecast for tonight's tilt  is hot and humid with temps around 80 and humidity close to 100%  I expect this game to start to slow down a great deal as the game progresses because of the suffocating heat  and possible rain which will aid in a combined score that stays on the low side of the number.   Miami 7-2-1 Under in the last 10 and after watching them struggle to score last week vs Jacksonville look for this combined score to fall short of the offered number. 

Teams like Miami  that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under for a 65% conversion rate  in Week 2 since 2005  .

Miami has gone under in 6 of 8 division home games as favorite of 10 points or less. 

Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L6 division road games.

Play under

Rookie QB Jayden Daniels starts today vs the Commanders and Im betting it will take time for him to acclimate to the NFL game. But Im also betting on Tampa Bay having issues moving the ball and for their production to be muted. Last season TB saw an average of 34.7 ppg scored on their own home field and Im projecting another combined score in that range here today. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home. :Dating back  more than two seasons , NFC South Division sides like Tampa Bay when going against a    NFC East Division side like Washington have gone UNDER in 15 of 17 matchups. 

Play under

Broncos rookie  QB Bo Nix Im betting takes time to acclimate to the NFL game, and struggles here out of the gate with downfield consistency which will directly affect this combined score. 

These two teams have gone UNDER in the last three matchups , with an average of only 39.7 combined PPG going on the scoreboard.

The Broncos have recorded 5 straight unders in the  L/5 seasons in game 1 , with an average of only 35.2 combined PPG going on the scoreboard. 

The Seahawks have gone  UNDER  in their L/3  openers with a combined    average of 40 combined ppg going on the scoreboard.

Also non division  matchup  in the first game of the season. have gone under 26 of the L/35 times dating back 11 seasons. 

Denver is 91-57 UNDER the total since 2015 for a 62% conversion rate for low bettors.

Play under

The Cards enters this game  having gone under in 16 of their L/20   and 9 of their L/10 when playing on the road versus  Eastern Division opponents . Meanwhile the home side  Bills have gone  under in 9 of their L/11 season openers  In their last including 3 straight openers with a  a combined  average of  39.3 ppg scored. I know QB Kyle Murray and QB Josh Allen gets the over juices flowing with bettors but Im projecting on a lower scoring affair here out of the gate for both sides. Note: Non conference tilts during the first month of the season have failed to eclipse the total in 16 of the 18 games dating back 3 seasons.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games at home.The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road.

Play under 

This line has now been bet down to low- based on what I believe to be some false assumptions from some sharps and the public alike. Notre Dame may be in a letdown spot after their big road win against Texas A&M last time out. But this is their first home game of the season, and will want to get their offense unwound behind their new QB , and despite of N.Illinois projecting to be a top 3 MAc team this season- hey, their still a MAC team, and consistent defensive play is not one of things that stands out from this conference. Im betting in a letdown spot or not the Irish do some offensive damage here that will allow this total to be eclipsed. Also Notre Dame flashed some extremely strong D out of the gate vs Texas A&M and may show some wear and tear this week, and as the game goes on and firmly within the grasp of the home side, look for some starters to get rested and for Northern Illinois to find some success late in this game offensively, helping us push this combined score over the Total. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s giving us a strong edge here based on those factors that I have isolated. (From a side perspective Im not quite ready to take the points here despite of perceived value and will elect to pass -with a better safe than sorry mind set) 

Play over

We have a QB duel ready to manifest itself this week in Brazil, as Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts go head to head in a Friday night Football game.  My projections estimate the Eagles will score 28 or more points while the Packers score 23 or more giving us a FG edge on this total making an over bet a viable option. 

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road. The Packers are 5-0 OVER vs NFC East L2 seasons with a combined average of  54.2 ppg scored. 

Eagles are 4-1 OVER in  Game 1 of the season.

Play over

Im betting that the KC Chiefs d, continues to be their catalyst going forward even though the offense has been upgraded in the off season. Meanwhile, Ravens QB Jackson is still not consistent enough with his passing game, and his legs and the Ravesn running back core will remain their modus operandi which gives credence to a grinding game that stays on the low side of the number. 

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road.

 Primetime games are 160-107  UNDER  with a 15% ROI since 2019 for a 60% conversion rate  .

Play under

James Madison had no problem running up scores last season, even with DD leads  and here against a Charlotte side  that  will be without a number of their starters due injuries that could once again be the case. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Dukes come close to eclipsing this totals offering all by themselves and for Charlotte to do enough damage to help us cash an over bet. 

Play over

My projections for this game estimate a score closer to the 60 point plateau. 

The Broncos  will be in tough here in   their season opener on the road against a Georgia Southern team that went 5-1 SU at home last year, has won 16 of its past 17 home openers. With that said, Im betting they give the Broncos a run for their money and what will Im betting not be a defensive style game, but rather a back and forth style track meet (or similar) type of affair. note: Georgia Southern plays a lot of man coverage and that means the speedy Boise State Broncos will be able to take advantage of this and put into play what their new offensive coordinator Koetter says he wants to see more explosive offensive plays which should produce alot of points. On the flipside Georgia Southerns dual threat  QB French is a man under center that maybe highly under rated - after sitting out at Memphis in first season in College football he transfered to GS and went 13 for 16 via 48 snaps, and is ready to be let loose on opponents this season. He will offer up a challenge to the Broncos D. Overall there is alot of good offensive talent on the field for both sides and a over bet is viable investment option. 

Georgia Southern has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)

.My projections for this Super Bowl game total come in at the low to mid 50s. Im estimating both teams eclipse the 24 point plateau. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 60.6 ppg. KANSAS CITY is 9-2 OVER in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored.

Both these teams have solid defenses but both sides can make great defenses look average and thats what Im betting on in this big time tilt.

Shanahan is 9-2 OVER off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the board.

Reid is 10-1 OVER  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 63.3 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 11-3 OVER )in road games vs. sub average passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.

Play over

Mahomes and company are finally clicking and looking smooth on offense, and Lamar Jackson and his offensive unit have been smooth and hard to stop all season long. I know both these Ds, are staunch, but in the end it will be QB play and offenses that make the difference here today. Reid  in his L/18 road games where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg scored. Harbaugh in his L/70 games  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE has seen a combined average of 46.6 ppg.

My own projections make this total closer to the 47 to 48 point threshold giving us a one possession edge on the number. 

KANSAS CITY is 8-1 OVER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 53.9 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (14-18 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games 36-12 OVER dating back to the 1983 season 

Five of the last six games in this series have eclipsed the total. 

Play over

I know rookie QB CJ Stroud has been explosive offensively this season , and last week highlighted that in a 45 point out put  win vs Cleveland. However, I now expect regression from the young QB as he  goes against a well rested staunch ball hawking Baltimore D, that has allowed an average of 16.5 ppg this season. On the flip-side, I expect the Ravens offense to to look to ground down the Texans with their run game behind the legs of QB LaMar Jackson and their solid rush attack. These teams met in Week 1 and Baltimore won 25-9 and Im expecting similar  points output. 

HOUSTON is 13-4 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg. HOUSTON is 15-3 UNDER after a win by 21 or more points since 1992 with a combined average 40.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34 ppg scored. 

The Houston Texans have only hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 21 games (-8.40 Units / -36% ROI)

BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER in home games in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 32.6 ppg scored. Also each of the Ravens past 10 games played in January at home have gone under the points totals.

Play on the UNDER

My projections estimate a a score in the high 30s here today giving us at least a FG advantage on this offered number from the books.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home. 

TAMPA BAY is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. TAMPA BAY is 18-7 UNDER   against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36 ppg scored. TAMPA BAY is 23-12 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg going on the board. Bowles in his L/6  home games off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of TAMPA BAY has seen a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 21 games (-6.30 Units / -27% ROI)

The Philadelphia Eagles have only hit the Game Total Over in 1 of their last 8 away games (-6.70 Units / -76% ROI) 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a favorite, when playing on Monday night are 24-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 40.2 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

The Browns after losing QB Deshaun Watson and running back Nick Chubb have now transitioned to a more wide open type of offensive  side behind Joe Flacco.  who has accumulated 1,616 yards passing, 13 TDs and eight picks in 5 games. Note: CLEVELAND is 6-0 OVER   in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 53.3 ppg scored. Cleveland has also gone over in all 8 of its road games this season with a combined average score of 54 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile, the Texans behind QB Stroud have a man under center that has thrown for the  third-most yards  by a NFL rookie (4,108) while connecting for 23 touchdown passes against just five interceptions.  Im betting he does enough damage today to help us get this over bet into the plus side of our bankrolls. Cleveland has allowed an average 29.6 ppg on the road this season.

When these teams played in December the combined for a 58 points. 

Play over 

The L/3 meetings in this series between Seahawks and the Cards have seen a combined average 63.6 combined PPG.

ARIZONA has gone OVER  in all 7 of their home games with a combined average of - 55.3 PPG scored. ARIZONA is 11-3 OVER   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. Arizona has gone over three straight games with a combined average of 61 ppg scored. 

Meanwhile, Seattle  allowed a sub par  Pittsburgh offense to put 30 points on the board  and this week QB Murray and company should come close to duplicating that out put in a game that Im betting goes over the total. 

The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle's last 19 games when playing on the road against Arizona.

Play over

This is a good opportunity here for a over bet at this time of the year in a indoor stadium.  both these teams are in the play off picture and Im betting on some aggressive football today. When the colts played the Texans earlier this season the game easily eclipsed the number, and a rinse and repeat situation seems imminent. The Colts have gone over in 7 of 8 home games this season with a combined average of 52.3 ppg scored. Last week the Texans only allowed 3 points to a pedestrian Tennessee offense, but it must be noted that NFL away sides  have gone  over 14 of the L/16  times when off a division home victory where they allowed  3 or less points , when the Total is  48 or less points like this game presently is. Also INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 OVER   vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scoredI. INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 OVER   vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 52.5 ppg scored.

Play over

Washington undefeated season came by route of an explosive offense that averaged just under 38 points per game and  rarely could be slowed. their Achilles heel has and is their D that allowed  30.1 ppg, and Texas is a team that can exploit that as is evident by averaging 36.2 ppg this season and that put up 57 and 49 points respectively in their L/2 games of the season. What Im betting on here today is a back and forth blockbuster that easily eclipses this total.  TEXAS is 10-0 L/10 OVER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 68.7 ppg scored. TEXAS is 16-3 OVER L/19 after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games with a combined average of 71 ppg scored. Washingtons HC DeBoer has seen his team score an average of 43.2 in his teams L/10 non conference games.

Play over

Going over in a indoor game at this time year is alot more optimal a bet than an under in a out doors game. With this game going in a dome tonight, Im betting on alot more offensive fireworks than the lines-makers might expect. Both sides recently have been involved in higher scoring affairs, with the Packers going over in 5 straight games, combing for 52 ppg while Minnesota has gone over in two straight with a combined average of 52.5 ppg scored. I know this is essentially a play off elimination game with loser not going to the post season, but instead of a chess match these sides are more suited to playing an aggressive take no prisoners type of affair which translates into a higher scoring game. 

GREEN BAY is 22-4 OVER in road games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 53.7 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER  after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 48 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 51.2 ppg scored ( GB beat Carolina 33-10 last week)

MINNESOTA is 17-5 OVER   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored. MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored.MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.2 ppg scored. ( Vikings lost to Lions last week 30-24)

 NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in the second half of the season are 42-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over 

Two very explosive offenses go head to head here in the Orange bowl with Florida State averaging 37 ppg, and their opponent Georgia averaging 38.4 ppg. Both these teams can make top tier defenses look average and thats what Im betting on today in this Bowl game. 

My projections estimate a much higher scoring game than the linesmakers- with both sides scoring 28Plus points  Note: GEORGIA is 46-0 OVER L/46  when both teams score 28 or more points . FLORIDA ST is 46-4 OVER L/50 when both teams score 28 or more points . 

Norvell is 13-3 OVER  with extended rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.4 ppg scored. 

Smart is 11-3 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of GEORGIA with a combined average of 59 ppg going on the board in those games. 

CFB team against the total (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 33-14 OVER L/5 seasons for. a70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

Missouri has a strong QB and offense lead by their key arm under center  Brady Cook . With that said,  Im betting the Tigers do some damage here today. Meanwhile, despite of alot of transfer portal opt outs for Ohio State on offense the depth  of this top tier variety program  is very viable and and Im also betting  hold their own offensively no matter who the QB is. 

MISSOURI in their L/20 games in December games  have seen a combined average of 63.7 ppg scored.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MISSOURI) - quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the first half, after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 32-11 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate fro bettors.

Play over

USC will be shorthanded offensively because of the portal transfer ,  but will still have  four-star QB under center along with a large group of tainted offensive players who I expect to take this opportunity to showcase their talents. Defensively Im also betting the Trojans stop units will once again struggle vs a Louisville side that can score in bunches. (Note: Trojans rank :Trojans defense ranks just 122nd in EPA per play and 118th in explosiveness) Yes on the flip side the Cardinal D has shown some staunch efforts overall but have also been torched,Georgia Tech (34 points, 488 yards ), Virginia (24 points, 434 yards ), Miami (31 points, 486 yards ), and Kentucky (38 points)

I project at least 28 points for the Trojans -Note: USC is 7-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points this season with a combined average of 83.7 ppg scored.

LOUISVILLE is 9-1 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 70.2 ppg scored. 

USC is 15-4 OVER in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 73.1 ppg scored.USC is 15-3 OVER  after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 75.9 ppg scored. 

Play over

USC is 12-3 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 73.5 ppg scored.

The  Minnesota Gophers allow 5.8 yards per play and have less than viable offense, and rank130th in Finishing Drives Allowed and red-zone scoring percentage allowed.  Meanwhile, as this season has progressed the bowl Green offense has improved and Im betting they do some damage here as they put up 49 , 31, 34 points respectively in L/3 games of the season . Meanwhile, the media has been making a big deal over whether starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis will not start for the Gophers  as he enters the transfer portal. But truth is the Gophers offense runs around their running game, as they move the ball via the rush more 60% of time behind, star RB  Darius Taylor who averages 5.7 yard per carry. Note:Falcons have struggled stopping the rush, ranking outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

Everything points to this total being eclipsed. 

CFB teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BOWLING GREEN/MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (280 to 330 YPG) are 120-62 OVER L/31 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

We two very explosive offenses ready to go head tonight in San Francisco as the Ravens visit the 49ers in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair. My projections  estimate both sides will put up 21 plus points. Note:

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 64.3 ppg scored.BALTIMORE is 16-3 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.4 ppg scored in those tilts. San Francisco  popped 45 points on the score board last week  in their road victory vs the Cards  - which brings in to play this Top tier trend- NFL home teams who scored 45 or more points in an away game  the previous week have gone over 9 straight times. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 OVER  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 48.4 ppg scored.

Harbaugh is 18-9 OVER  as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 47.1 ppg scored.

NFC home chalk  of 7 points or less like the 49ers on Mondays  have gone OVER  9 of the L/10 times dating back 9 seasons  vs  AFC opposition like the Ravens. 

Play over

CLEVELAND is 6-0 OVER in road games this season with a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored. This Browns  team seems to play alot more wide open on the road, and are transitioning to pass first attack with Joe Flacco under center.  Today with talented  Texas QB Stroud back in the mix Im betting they will have to open up their offense, as Im betting Stroud and company do some offensive damage. Stefanski is 8-1 OVER  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of CLEVELAND.

Play over

These teams are explosive offensive sides with Dallas averaging 33.2 ppg while Philadelphia is averaging 27.4 ppg. Also recent meetings between these sides have see the manifestation of high scoring affairs, with an average 60.2 ppg scored in the L/6 overall meetings with all 6 going over the total.DALLAS is 7-0 OVER \n home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 62.8 ppg scored. DALLAS is 7-0 OVER  in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 63.2 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 OVER  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.4 ppg scored. Everything points to this being. aback and forth affair that eclipses the total. 

Play on the over 

These teams have seen alot of low scoring games this season, thanks in part to a lack of fluid offense and strong up-trending defenses. With back up QBs expected to start today another low scoring event is my bet. 

 The  Raiders have gone under in 9 of 12 tilts this season and have gone under in 5 of 6 at home, averaging a just  36.8 combined PPG in the process . Meanwhile the Vikings have also gone 9-3 under  and when they are favored have stayed under in all 6 as chalk with a combined average of   35.1 ppg getting scored.

Teams like the Raiders and the Vikings both off a bye week dating back 3 season have seen , 15 of the L/17 stay under  the offered total for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLRoad teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 32-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.2 ppg scored.

Play under

We have a interesting set up from a recent trends historical data base of late from tonights tilt featuring the Green Bay Packers vs the KC Chiefs.  Note: Sunday and Monday night tilts have gone under in 23 of 26 games this season and have cashed to the under in  15 straight games . In the last two seasons the under has been a cash cow grabbing the dough from the books  in 32  of the  35 opportunities.

Also the under has cashed  in 24 of the 29 games for a 83% conversion rate with   NFL sides like Green Bay  off back-to-back underdog victories  . 

NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-1 UNDER  in games played on a grass field this season with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored..

KC previous to their last game vs Vegas in a 31-17 win had done under 6 straight times. 

Im bucking these types of trends and instead will ride with the tide.

Play under

Cleveland has played low scoring games at home this season, but have gone over the total in all 5 of their road tilts with a combined average of 54.3 ppg scored. Last week Cleveland played in Denver, and that brings into play a situation where non division road  teams that get a whiff of fresh breathable air after coming from the Mile Hight city are 9-0-1 over dating back 4 seasons. Im betting a Cleveland team that has not done much scoring here of late  to feel rejuvenated and come out here swinging  and put more points on the board than the lines-makers expect.  Meanwhile the  Rams are a side that is finally getting their offense in gear off scoring 37 points last time out will primed to keep that train going. McVay is 12-4 OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored.

Play over

Hey I know the Washington D has looked atrocious of late , but the coaching staff have really been focusing on  slowing down their game  and for a more  focused concerted effort on being  more physical and disciplined on defense. Yes, I also know how explosive Miami has been, but with this being their 2nd straight away game a little bit of regression must be expected from this road weary group, playing a in division matchup. Only one of the Fins last 7 games has eclisped this totals offering and Im betting on another one staying under the number. the L/3 meetings here in Washington between these sides has stayed on the low side of the offered total. 

WASHINGTON is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 8-0 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.6 ppg scored. Rivera is 6-0 UNDER in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or better  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 36 ppg .Rivera is 11-1 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 37.6 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 26-9 UNDER L/35 against NFC East division opponents with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

When you see a Detroit Lions game you want almost automatically look for reasons to bet the over, but this is not one of those games here in New Orleans vs the inept offense of the Saints that are averaging  just 18.3 ppg at home this season. Note  When team from the  NFC   are non-division Conference road favorites the total has failed to be eclipsed 9 of the L/10 times. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 28 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 UNDER  in December games over the last 3 season with a combined average of 30.5 ppg scored. 

Allen is 9-1 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached with a combined average of 41.8 ppg scored.

Campbell is 11-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 40.6 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 28-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (DETROIT) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

Florida State has average 38.3 ppg this season while Louisville has scored and average of 33 ppg and an average of 36 ppg on turf. My projections see the Cardinal/Florida State both scoring 28 plus points making this totals offering vulnerable  . Note: LOUISVILLE is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average fo 71.3 ppg scored. FLORIDA ST L/18 when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 60.5 ppg go on the board. 

Note:  Cardinal  last three matchups to end the regular season - vs. Virginia, at Miami and vs. Kentucky - saw them  Cardinal give  up and average of 31.0 points and 403.0 yards per game. Even with a third string QB expected to play, Im betting the Seminoles do enough damage to get this score to eclipse the total. 

LOUISVILLE L/25 games  after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games have seen a combined average of 58.6 ppg scored. Brohm is 20-5 OVER   when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored. Brohm is 10-1 OVER  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 72.4 ppg scored. 

Play over

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (LOUISVILLE) - quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the first half, after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 32-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Liberty own an explosive offense that cannot be easily stopped not even from strong defensive units like New Mexico State. The Flames have averaged 39 ppg on offense at home this season, and Im betting they hit in the 30s again today. Meanwhile, New Mexico State has averaged 28.2 ppg this season, and will be forced into opening up , which Im betting results in a higher scoring tilt then the lines-makers are expecting. Note: Liberty's D, I would not describe as being of the top tier variety despite of their 12-0 record as has been evident lately, when allowing UTEP, 28 points and Mass 25 points , so I wont be surprised to see the Aggies put at least that many points on the board. Note: LIBERTY is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 74.3 ppg scored. NEW MEXICO ST is 6-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 74.8 ppg scored.

NEW MEXICO ST is 28-14  L/42 OVER in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 with a combined average of 64.6 ppg scored.

Play over

Prime time games have been fairly low scoring this season with 26 of 34 games failing to eclipse the offered totals number. The Ravens are off playing a Thursday night game last week, and this sets in play a positive under trend as  NFL away sides  off a Thursday nighter as hosts  have  eclipsed the total only 5 of 28 times  L/3 seasons.  Another strong trend associated with this tilt shows AFC  teams like Baltimore with bye week up next  have gone under in their L/13 opportunities. Also  NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 6-27 UNDER  L/10 seasons under for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 29.2 ppg. Harbaugh is 17-4 UNDER ( after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 40.6 ppg scored.

Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS are 23-7 UNDER L/30  vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season  with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 32-16 UNDER L/48 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 44.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 7-0 UNDER  after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

Play under

 The Chiefs are off a MNF defeat and Im betting will be primed to play a top tier brand of D, here against Vegas that will help keep this tilt under the offered totals number. NFL favorites off a Monday nighter  home loss   have gone a under in 8 straight games  in the last three seasons. Note: Vegas has gone under in 7 of their L/8 overall.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this seasons with a combined average of  38 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  after the first month of the season this season with a combined average of 37 ppg scored. 

LAS VEGAS is 6-0 UNDER in dome games this season with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored.LAS VEGAS is 7-1 UNDER  in games played on turf this season with a combined average of 37.8 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 71-37 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Both the Eagles and the Bills have viable offenses averaging more than 26 ppg in out put. BUFFALO is the underdog here which is important considering they have gone 8-0 OVER  as underdogs of +2 or more points in the last four seasons with a combined average of 67.5 ppl scored. On the flip side Sunday NFC Conference home favorites of  3 pts or more like the  Eagles against  AFC Conference opponents like the Bills have eclipsed the Total 9 of the L/10 times. Considering the Eagles home games have seen a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored it will be an easy decision here to go with an over wagering what my projections estimate to be a score that hits in the low 50s. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER   in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51 ppl scored. My projections also estimate both sides will score at least 20 or more points which is important as the Eagles are 12-1 OVER L/13 when that happens with the combined score clicking in at 61.8 ppg. 

Play over