We have a QB duel ready to manifest itself this week in Brazil, as Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts go head to head in a Friday night Football game.  My projections estimate the Eagles will score 28 or more points while the Packers score 23 or more giving us a FG edge on this total making an over bet a viable option. 

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road. The Packers are 5-0 OVER vs NFC East L2 seasons with a combined average of  54.2 ppg scored. 

Eagles are 4-1 OVER in  Game 1 of the season.

Play over

Im betting that the KC Chiefs d, continues to be their catalyst going forward even though the offense has been upgraded in the off season. Meanwhile, Ravens QB Jackson is still not consistent enough with his passing game, and his legs and the Ravesn running back core will remain their modus operandi which gives credence to a grinding game that stays on the low side of the number. 

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road.

 Primetime games are 160-107  UNDER  with a 15% ROI since 2019 for a 60% conversion rate  .

Play under

James Madison had no problem running up scores last season, even with DD leads  and here against a Charlotte side  that  will be without a number of their starters due injuries that could once again be the case. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Dukes come close to eclipsing this totals offering all by themselves and for Charlotte to do enough damage to help us cash an over bet. 

Play over

My projections for this game estimate a score closer to the 60 point plateau. 

The Broncos  will be in tough here in   their season opener on the road against a Georgia Southern team that went 5-1 SU at home last year, has won 16 of its past 17 home openers. With that said, Im betting they give the Broncos a run for their money and what will Im betting not be a defensive style game, but rather a back and forth style track meet (or similar) type of affair. note: Georgia Southern plays a lot of man coverage and that means the speedy Boise State Broncos will be able to take advantage of this and put into play what their new offensive coordinator Koetter says he wants to see more explosive offensive plays which should produce alot of points. On the flipside Georgia Southerns dual threat  QB French is a man under center that maybe highly under rated - after sitting out at Memphis in first season in College football he transfered to GS and went 13 for 16 via 48 snaps, and is ready to be let loose on opponents this season. He will offer up a challenge to the Broncos D. Overall there is alot of good offensive talent on the field for both sides and a over bet is viable investment option. 

Georgia Southern has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)

.My projections for this Super Bowl game total come in at the low to mid 50s. Im estimating both teams eclipse the 24 point plateau. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 60.6 ppg. KANSAS CITY is 9-2 OVER in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored.

Both these teams have solid defenses but both sides can make great defenses look average and thats what Im betting on in this big time tilt.

Shanahan is 9-2 OVER off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the board.

Reid is 10-1 OVER  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 63.3 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 11-3 OVER )in road games vs. sub average passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.

Play over

Mahomes and company are finally clicking and looking smooth on offense, and Lamar Jackson and his offensive unit have been smooth and hard to stop all season long. I know both these Ds, are staunch, but in the end it will be QB play and offenses that make the difference here today. Reid  in his L/18 road games where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg scored. Harbaugh in his L/70 games  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE has seen a combined average of 46.6 ppg.

My own projections make this total closer to the 47 to 48 point threshold giving us a one possession edge on the number. 

KANSAS CITY is 8-1 OVER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 53.9 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (14-18 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games 36-12 OVER dating back to the 1983 season 

Five of the last six games in this series have eclipsed the total. 

Play over

I know rookie QB CJ Stroud has been explosive offensively this season , and last week highlighted that in a 45 point out put  win vs Cleveland. However, I now expect regression from the young QB as he  goes against a well rested staunch ball hawking Baltimore D, that has allowed an average of 16.5 ppg this season. On the flip-side, I expect the Ravens offense to to look to ground down the Texans with their run game behind the legs of QB LaMar Jackson and their solid rush attack. These teams met in Week 1 and Baltimore won 25-9 and Im expecting similar  points output. 

HOUSTON is 13-4 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg. HOUSTON is 15-3 UNDER after a win by 21 or more points since 1992 with a combined average 40.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34 ppg scored. 

The Houston Texans have only hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 21 games (-8.40 Units / -36% ROI)

BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER in home games in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 32.6 ppg scored. Also each of the Ravens past 10 games played in January at home have gone under the points totals.

Play on the UNDER

My projections estimate a a score in the high 30s here today giving us at least a FG advantage on this offered number from the books.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home. 

TAMPA BAY is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. TAMPA BAY is 18-7 UNDER   against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36 ppg scored. TAMPA BAY is 23-12 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg going on the board. Bowles in his L/6  home games off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of TAMPA BAY has seen a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 21 games (-6.30 Units / -27% ROI)

The Philadelphia Eagles have only hit the Game Total Over in 1 of their last 8 away games (-6.70 Units / -76% ROI) 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a favorite, when playing on Monday night are 24-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 40.2 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

The Browns after losing QB Deshaun Watson and running back Nick Chubb have now transitioned to a more wide open type of offensive  side behind Joe Flacco.  who has accumulated 1,616 yards passing, 13 TDs and eight picks in 5 games. Note: CLEVELAND is 6-0 OVER   in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 53.3 ppg scored. Cleveland has also gone over in all 8 of its road games this season with a combined average score of 54 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile, the Texans behind QB Stroud have a man under center that has thrown for the  third-most yards  by a NFL rookie (4,108) while connecting for 23 touchdown passes against just five interceptions.  Im betting he does enough damage today to help us get this over bet into the plus side of our bankrolls. Cleveland has allowed an average 29.6 ppg on the road this season.

When these teams played in December the combined for a 58 points. 

Play over 

The L/3 meetings in this series between Seahawks and the Cards have seen a combined average 63.6 combined PPG.

ARIZONA has gone OVER  in all 7 of their home games with a combined average of - 55.3 PPG scored. ARIZONA is 11-3 OVER   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. Arizona has gone over three straight games with a combined average of 61 ppg scored. 

Meanwhile, Seattle  allowed a sub par  Pittsburgh offense to put 30 points on the board  and this week QB Murray and company should come close to duplicating that out put in a game that Im betting goes over the total. 

The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle's last 19 games when playing on the road against Arizona.

Play over

This is a good opportunity here for a over bet at this time of the year in a indoor stadium.  both these teams are in the play off picture and Im betting on some aggressive football today. When the colts played the Texans earlier this season the game easily eclipsed the number, and a rinse and repeat situation seems imminent. The Colts have gone over in 7 of 8 home games this season with a combined average of 52.3 ppg scored. Last week the Texans only allowed 3 points to a pedestrian Tennessee offense, but it must be noted that NFL away sides  have gone  over 14 of the L/16  times when off a division home victory where they allowed  3 or less points , when the Total is  48 or less points like this game presently is. Also INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 OVER   vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scoredI. INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 OVER   vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 52.5 ppg scored.

Play over

Washington undefeated season came by route of an explosive offense that averaged just under 38 points per game and  rarely could be slowed. their Achilles heel has and is their D that allowed  30.1 ppg, and Texas is a team that can exploit that as is evident by averaging 36.2 ppg this season and that put up 57 and 49 points respectively in their L/2 games of the season. What Im betting on here today is a back and forth blockbuster that easily eclipses this total.  TEXAS is 10-0 L/10 OVER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 68.7 ppg scored. TEXAS is 16-3 OVER L/19 after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games with a combined average of 71 ppg scored. Washingtons HC DeBoer has seen his team score an average of 43.2 in his teams L/10 non conference games.

Play over

Going over in a indoor game at this time year is alot more optimal a bet than an under in a out doors game. With this game going in a dome tonight, Im betting on alot more offensive fireworks than the lines-makers might expect. Both sides recently have been involved in higher scoring affairs, with the Packers going over in 5 straight games, combing for 52 ppg while Minnesota has gone over in two straight with a combined average of 52.5 ppg scored. I know this is essentially a play off elimination game with loser not going to the post season, but instead of a chess match these sides are more suited to playing an aggressive take no prisoners type of affair which translates into a higher scoring game. 

GREEN BAY is 22-4 OVER in road games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 53.7 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER  after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 48 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 51.2 ppg scored ( GB beat Carolina 33-10 last week)

MINNESOTA is 17-5 OVER   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored. MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored.MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.2 ppg scored. ( Vikings lost to Lions last week 30-24)

 NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in the second half of the season are 42-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over 

Two very explosive offenses go head to head here in the Orange bowl with Florida State averaging 37 ppg, and their opponent Georgia averaging 38.4 ppg. Both these teams can make top tier defenses look average and thats what Im betting on today in this Bowl game. 

My projections estimate a much higher scoring game than the linesmakers- with both sides scoring 28Plus points  Note: GEORGIA is 46-0 OVER L/46  when both teams score 28 or more points . FLORIDA ST is 46-4 OVER L/50 when both teams score 28 or more points . 

Norvell is 13-3 OVER  with extended rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.4 ppg scored. 

Smart is 11-3 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of GEORGIA with a combined average of 59 ppg going on the board in those games. 

CFB team against the total (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 33-14 OVER L/5 seasons for. a70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

Missouri has a strong QB and offense lead by their key arm under center  Brady Cook . With that said,  Im betting the Tigers do some damage here today. Meanwhile, despite of alot of transfer portal opt outs for Ohio State on offense the depth  of this top tier variety program  is very viable and and Im also betting  hold their own offensively no matter who the QB is. 

MISSOURI in their L/20 games in December games  have seen a combined average of 63.7 ppg scored.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MISSOURI) - quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the first half, after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 32-11 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate fro bettors.

Play over

USC will be shorthanded offensively because of the portal transfer ,  but will still have  four-star QB under center along with a large group of tainted offensive players who I expect to take this opportunity to showcase their talents. Defensively Im also betting the Trojans stop units will once again struggle vs a Louisville side that can score in bunches. (Note: Trojans rank :Trojans defense ranks just 122nd in EPA per play and 118th in explosiveness) Yes on the flip side the Cardinal D has shown some staunch efforts overall but have also been torched,Georgia Tech (34 points, 488 yards ), Virginia (24 points, 434 yards ), Miami (31 points, 486 yards ), and Kentucky (38 points)

I project at least 28 points for the Trojans -Note: USC is 7-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points this season with a combined average of 83.7 ppg scored.

LOUISVILLE is 9-1 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 70.2 ppg scored. 

USC is 15-4 OVER in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 73.1 ppg scored.USC is 15-3 OVER  after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 75.9 ppg scored. 

Play over

USC is 12-3 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 73.5 ppg scored.

The  Minnesota Gophers allow 5.8 yards per play and have less than viable offense, and rank130th in Finishing Drives Allowed and red-zone scoring percentage allowed.  Meanwhile, as this season has progressed the bowl Green offense has improved and Im betting they do some damage here as they put up 49 , 31, 34 points respectively in L/3 games of the season . Meanwhile, the media has been making a big deal over whether starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis will not start for the Gophers  as he enters the transfer portal. But truth is the Gophers offense runs around their running game, as they move the ball via the rush more 60% of time behind, star RB  Darius Taylor who averages 5.7 yard per carry. Note:Falcons have struggled stopping the rush, ranking outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

Everything points to this total being eclipsed. 

CFB teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BOWLING GREEN/MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (280 to 330 YPG) are 120-62 OVER L/31 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

We two very explosive offenses ready to go head tonight in San Francisco as the Ravens visit the 49ers in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair. My projections  estimate both sides will put up 21 plus points. Note:

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 64.3 ppg scored.BALTIMORE is 16-3 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.4 ppg scored in those tilts. San Francisco  popped 45 points on the score board last week  in their road victory vs the Cards  - which brings in to play this Top tier trend- NFL home teams who scored 45 or more points in an away game  the previous week have gone over 9 straight times. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 OVER  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 48.4 ppg scored.

Harbaugh is 18-9 OVER  as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 47.1 ppg scored.

NFC home chalk  of 7 points or less like the 49ers on Mondays  have gone OVER  9 of the L/10 times dating back 9 seasons  vs  AFC opposition like the Ravens. 

Play over

CLEVELAND is 6-0 OVER in road games this season with a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored. This Browns  team seems to play alot more wide open on the road, and are transitioning to pass first attack with Joe Flacco under center.  Today with talented  Texas QB Stroud back in the mix Im betting they will have to open up their offense, as Im betting Stroud and company do some offensive damage. Stefanski is 8-1 OVER  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of CLEVELAND.

Play over

These teams are explosive offensive sides with Dallas averaging 33.2 ppg while Philadelphia is averaging 27.4 ppg. Also recent meetings between these sides have see the manifestation of high scoring affairs, with an average 60.2 ppg scored in the L/6 overall meetings with all 6 going over the total.DALLAS is 7-0 OVER \n home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 62.8 ppg scored. DALLAS is 7-0 OVER  in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 63.2 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 OVER  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.4 ppg scored. Everything points to this being. aback and forth affair that eclipses the total. 

Play on the over 

These teams have seen alot of low scoring games this season, thanks in part to a lack of fluid offense and strong up-trending defenses. With back up QBs expected to start today another low scoring event is my bet. 

 The  Raiders have gone under in 9 of 12 tilts this season and have gone under in 5 of 6 at home, averaging a just  36.8 combined PPG in the process . Meanwhile the Vikings have also gone 9-3 under  and when they are favored have stayed under in all 6 as chalk with a combined average of   35.1 ppg getting scored.

Teams like the Raiders and the Vikings both off a bye week dating back 3 season have seen , 15 of the L/17 stay under  the offered total for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLRoad teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 32-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.2 ppg scored.

Play under

We have a interesting set up from a recent trends historical data base of late from tonights tilt featuring the Green Bay Packers vs the KC Chiefs.  Note: Sunday and Monday night tilts have gone under in 23 of 26 games this season and have cashed to the under in  15 straight games . In the last two seasons the under has been a cash cow grabbing the dough from the books  in 32  of the  35 opportunities.

Also the under has cashed  in 24 of the 29 games for a 83% conversion rate with   NFL sides like Green Bay  off back-to-back underdog victories  . 

NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-1 UNDER  in games played on a grass field this season with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored..

KC previous to their last game vs Vegas in a 31-17 win had done under 6 straight times. 

Im bucking these types of trends and instead will ride with the tide.

Play under

Cleveland has played low scoring games at home this season, but have gone over the total in all 5 of their road tilts with a combined average of 54.3 ppg scored. Last week Cleveland played in Denver, and that brings into play a situation where non division road  teams that get a whiff of fresh breathable air after coming from the Mile Hight city are 9-0-1 over dating back 4 seasons. Im betting a Cleveland team that has not done much scoring here of late  to feel rejuvenated and come out here swinging  and put more points on the board than the lines-makers expect.  Meanwhile the  Rams are a side that is finally getting their offense in gear off scoring 37 points last time out will primed to keep that train going. McVay is 12-4 OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored.

Play over

Hey I know the Washington D has looked atrocious of late , but the coaching staff have really been focusing on  slowing down their game  and for a more  focused concerted effort on being  more physical and disciplined on defense. Yes, I also know how explosive Miami has been, but with this being their 2nd straight away game a little bit of regression must be expected from this road weary group, playing a in division matchup. Only one of the Fins last 7 games has eclisped this totals offering and Im betting on another one staying under the number. the L/3 meetings here in Washington between these sides has stayed on the low side of the offered total. 

WASHINGTON is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 8-0 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.6 ppg scored. Rivera is 6-0 UNDER in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or better  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 36 ppg .Rivera is 11-1 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 37.6 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 26-9 UNDER L/35 against NFC East division opponents with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

When you see a Detroit Lions game you want almost automatically look for reasons to bet the over, but this is not one of those games here in New Orleans vs the inept offense of the Saints that are averaging  just 18.3 ppg at home this season. Note  When team from the  NFC   are non-division Conference road favorites the total has failed to be eclipsed 9 of the L/10 times. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 28 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 UNDER  in December games over the last 3 season with a combined average of 30.5 ppg scored. 

Allen is 9-1 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached with a combined average of 41.8 ppg scored.

Campbell is 11-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 40.6 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 28-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (DETROIT) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

Florida State has average 38.3 ppg this season while Louisville has scored and average of 33 ppg and an average of 36 ppg on turf. My projections see the Cardinal/Florida State both scoring 28 plus points making this totals offering vulnerable  . Note: LOUISVILLE is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average fo 71.3 ppg scored. FLORIDA ST L/18 when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 60.5 ppg go on the board. 

Note:  Cardinal  last three matchups to end the regular season - vs. Virginia, at Miami and vs. Kentucky - saw them  Cardinal give  up and average of 31.0 points and 403.0 yards per game. Even with a third string QB expected to play, Im betting the Seminoles do enough damage to get this score to eclipse the total. 

LOUISVILLE L/25 games  after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games have seen a combined average of 58.6 ppg scored. Brohm is 20-5 OVER   when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored. Brohm is 10-1 OVER  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 72.4 ppg scored. 

Play over

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (LOUISVILLE) - quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the first half, after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 32-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Liberty own an explosive offense that cannot be easily stopped not even from strong defensive units like New Mexico State. The Flames have averaged 39 ppg on offense at home this season, and Im betting they hit in the 30s again today. Meanwhile, New Mexico State has averaged 28.2 ppg this season, and will be forced into opening up , which Im betting results in a higher scoring tilt then the lines-makers are expecting. Note: Liberty's D, I would not describe as being of the top tier variety despite of their 12-0 record as has been evident lately, when allowing UTEP, 28 points and Mass 25 points , so I wont be surprised to see the Aggies put at least that many points on the board. Note: LIBERTY is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 74.3 ppg scored. NEW MEXICO ST is 6-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 74.8 ppg scored.

NEW MEXICO ST is 28-14  L/42 OVER in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 with a combined average of 64.6 ppg scored.

Play over

Prime time games have been fairly low scoring this season with 26 of 34 games failing to eclipse the offered totals number. The Ravens are off playing a Thursday night game last week, and this sets in play a positive under trend as  NFL away sides  off a Thursday nighter as hosts  have  eclipsed the total only 5 of 28 times  L/3 seasons.  Another strong trend associated with this tilt shows AFC  teams like Baltimore with bye week up next  have gone under in their L/13 opportunities. Also  NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 6-27 UNDER  L/10 seasons under for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 29.2 ppg. Harbaugh is 17-4 UNDER ( after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 40.6 ppg scored.

Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS are 23-7 UNDER L/30  vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season  with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 32-16 UNDER L/48 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 44.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 7-0 UNDER  after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

Play under

 The Chiefs are off a MNF defeat and Im betting will be primed to play a top tier brand of D, here against Vegas that will help keep this tilt under the offered totals number. NFL favorites off a Monday nighter  home loss   have gone a under in 8 straight games  in the last three seasons. Note: Vegas has gone under in 7 of their L/8 overall.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this seasons with a combined average of  38 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  after the first month of the season this season with a combined average of 37 ppg scored. 

LAS VEGAS is 6-0 UNDER in dome games this season with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored.LAS VEGAS is 7-1 UNDER  in games played on turf this season with a combined average of 37.8 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 71-37 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Both the Eagles and the Bills have viable offenses averaging more than 26 ppg in out put. BUFFALO is the underdog here which is important considering they have gone 8-0 OVER  as underdogs of +2 or more points in the last four seasons with a combined average of 67.5 ppl scored. On the flip side Sunday NFC Conference home favorites of  3 pts or more like the  Eagles against  AFC Conference opponents like the Bills have eclipsed the Total 9 of the L/10 times. Considering the Eagles home games have seen a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored it will be an easy decision here to go with an over wagering what my projections estimate to be a score that hits in the low 50s. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER   in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51 ppl scored. My projections also estimate both sides will score at least 20 or more points which is important as the Eagles are 12-1 OVER L/13 when that happens with the combined score clicking in at 61.8 ppg. 

Play over

I know both offenses are expected to have a low output production today, but even with the Steelers offensive woes and the Bengals QB precarious situation, my projections still estimate a score in the high 30s which gives close to a FG edge on this offered number. Note: PITTSBURGH is 8-1 OVER   versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 30-8 OVER L/30 seasons with the combined average score of 48 ppg scored.

Play over

Dallas /Washington games have seen some big total scores go on the board here in Dallas in the past with each combined score easily eclipsing this offering and Im betting nothing changes here today. The combined average score of those tilts rings in at 60.7 ppg. The Commanders own the worst scoring D in the NFL and the Boyz will do damage. But Im also betting the Commanders will also do their share of scoring in what Im betting will be a more back and forth tilt than the linebackers expect. Note: DALLAS: 10-0vOVER  as division  home chalk of  3 points or more and WASHINGTON: 6-0 OVER as division  road dogs of  3 pts or more.  

Play over

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Washington ranks  31 st allowing  27.4 ppg and the NY Giants are ranked 29th allowing  26.6 ppg. Washington has on occasion shown some offensive pop and Im betting they do damage this week, vs a shell shocked group of Giants, while the pedestrian offense of the giants finally gets a defense they can handle. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY GIANTS) - terrible offensive team - scoring 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points are 45-19 OVER L/30 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over

Arizona State has only averaged 17.7 ppg on offense this season, and will try very hard to slow the pace of this game down, via slow snap counts and their running game as they play for survival here vs an explosive foe, and that Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers are projecting. 

ARIZONA ST is 26-11 L/37 UNDER  vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season with a combined average of 52.6 ppg scored. 

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (ARIZONA ST) - after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-4 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 40 points per game scored. 

Play on the under 

West Virginia has allowed 18.2 ppg at home this season, and Im betting they hold the inconsistent offense of the Cincinnati Bearkats within that range today.  Look for key mode of moving thte ball to be their fairly efficient run game , and slower snap counts to see them try to grind out  conservative game plan. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers average 213.8 rushing yards per game, No. 7 in the country and Im sure they will pound the ball again which in turn will eat alot of clock time. Lots of rsuh action makes for what Im projecting to be a combined score that stays on the low side of this totals offeirng. 

Brown is 12-4 UNDER  in November games as the coach of W VIRGINIA with a combined average of 47.3 ppg scored. 

CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons are  43.3 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. with pf 46.4 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored..

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W VIRGINIA) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-8 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 44.8 ppg scored. 

Play under

We know the Niners can score but after three straight losses you can bet the team will rest their prospects on a big time effort from a rested D, off a bye week. It must be noted NFL road chalk   having suffered 3 or more consecutive  losses  have gone under 12 of the L/13 times darting back to the 2019 season. The Jags despite of a 5 game win streak Im betting will find the offensive sledding tough today but I have enough respect in the Jags D, that SF most likely will also not have any obscene production keeping this combined score from eclipsing this number. 

 NFC road favorites of  3 points or more like the 49ers  have gone  under  in  16 of the L/17 times vs AFC opposition like the Jags , when the offered  Total  is 47  or less . When both  teams  are off their Bye Week like these two side are the under is  0-7 when the totals offering is  46 points or less. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 63-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NF Lteam where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 102-55 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

All three games played here between these sides have stayed under the total. 

Play under

Bulldogs. Quarterback Mike Wright, who led Vanderbilt to a win against  UK at Kroger Field is now playing for Mississippi State.  Wright   continues to be impress with his ability to make plays and  can elude the pocket and make plays with his legs and Im betting he has another strong effort today and helps his team with higher offensive production totals than the linesmakers expect. On the flipside the Wildcats  offense  really ramped up they're aerial attack   last Saturday night. Quarterback Devin Leary had a season-high 372 yards passing vs Tennessee and wide receiver Dane Key had his best game of the season and Im betting they build on that momentum in this tilt  With the running game the Wildcats most efficient mode of moving the ball a complete game is not out of the realm of possibility which makes for a much bigger point production than is expected. All in all we have value with taking the over here today.

My projections based on some higher edge probabilities estimates a much higher output than the linesmkaers. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28+ points - Note: KENTUCKY is 51-1 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992.  MISSISSIPPI ST is 41-2 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992.

Stoops in 48   road games as the coach of KENTUCKY has seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 6-0 OVER in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 61.8 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 KENTUCKY/ (MISSISSIPPI ST) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 PYA) after 7+ games.are 52-16 OVER L/5 seasons with the combined average score of 48.6 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

The Cardinals have a very hard time moving the ball behind a clunky offense. as is evident by averaging just 18.1 ppg in production and have scored 9 and 10 points respectively in their L/2 games.Key Trend:  NFC Conference teams who scored 10  pts  or less in each of their last two games  have gone  under 9 straight times. 

. Thats not a good omen against a Baltimore side that is allowing just 13.9 ppg this season on D (tops in the NFL). On the flipisde, the Ravens offense has been pedestrian this season to say the least , averaging just 22.3 ppg in road tilts. I know Arizonas D, has been highly inconsistent this season, probably because of the amount of time they spend on the field, but it must be noted that BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER  vs.sub par defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored. The Ravens exhibit  is a grinding style of play that eats up alot of clock time and Im betting nothing changes today.

BALTIMORE is also 9-0 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.1 ppg scored. BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER  after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 25.2 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 13-40 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLbteam where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - with a poor passing D - allowing 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 69-26 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Previous to their win last time out vs Navy by a 17-6 score the Air Force Cadets had scored 39,45, 49, 34  points respectively and in their opener this season jacked 42 points on the board.  This Flyboys side is explosive to say the least, and here today vs a Colorado State side allowing an average of 35.8 ppg and more than 40 points per game at home , Im projecting them to eclipse the 40 point plateau while Colorado State will fire back in desperation and do just enough damage to help us cash with an over wager vs  this very vulnerable number. 

AIR FORCE is 16-5 OVER  in road games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) with he combined average of those games clicking in at 55.3 ppg. 

AIR FORCE is 33-18 OVER in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game with a combined average of 61.3 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total (COLORADO ST) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a double digit road win are 30-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 60.6 ppg.

CFB  Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (AIR FORCE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game are 113-64 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 52 ppg  going on the score board . 

Play on the over

The Bears are averaging 195.6 yards per game rushing, third-most in the Pac-12 and 19th nationally  and Im betting they try to grind away here in effort to slow this game down to keep the Trojans explosive attack of the field as much as possible -  which in turn will eat up alot of clock time.

CALIFORNIA is 14-3 UNDER  in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att with a combined average of 51.4 ppg scored. Wilcox is 8-1 UNDER  after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of CALIFORNIA with a combined average of 41.7 ppg scored. Wilcox in his L/53 games against conference opponents has seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. 

CFB Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (USC) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.7 ppg scored. 

Liberty can destroy opposing Ds with their offense both through the air and on the ground via some very exotic play making as the offense has averaged 36.3 per game overall and 41.3 ppg in road tilts . Meanwhile, W.Kentucky has the ability to answer back with a offense that averages 41.3 ppg on offense at home this season.

On the flipside, the Hilltopers D, gives up a ton of yards on the ground and their secondary and  according to my own projections  and does not matchup well vs Liberty's well oiled aerial or ground assault. Meanwhile Liberty against Buffalo and Middle Tenn State allowed 27 and 35 points on the respectively this season,  and have shown themselves to be vulnerable vs decent offensive groups  (The Hilltoppers have far more fire power than either Buffalo or Middle Tenn State .With that said, Im betting Western Kentucky will do some offensive damage here today in a all out performance that will have huge implications on them getting a bowl invite as their record now stands at 4-3. Problem remains with the Hilltoppers D, and Liberty is a machine that wont be stopped by a pedestrian group. 

I know D, seems to standout in big  games, but the offensive talent and the lack of defensive talent on display here will trump that trend. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28+ points. Note: LIBERTY is 16-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points with the combined average of 82.8 ppg scored.

Liberty projected to score  35 W.Kentucky to score  30 

 After being upset last time out by Cleveland in a very physical game the 49ers are banged up with key offensive components , RB Christian McCaffrey at less than 100% with an oblique injury and WR Deebo Samuels also questionable.With that said,  the offense maybe more muted than usual . The good news for SF is they own the leagues best D, allowing just 14.5 ppg and Im sure they will give the inconsistent Vikings offense all they can handle. Advantage to the under.

Monday Night NFL Primetime tilts have  seen 7 of 8 games stay under the Total this season with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. Monday Night games that have the road side as chalk have gone under 17 of the L/18 times the L/3 seasons. 

Minnesota has only eclipsed the total one time in 6 games this season. Vikings have gone under in their L/4 MNF games.

SF has gone under in 5 of their L/6 back to back road games. Five of the L/seven meetings in this series have stayed on the offered total.

NFL  team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a favorite, when playing on Monday night are 22-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.6 ppg scored.

Play under

Florida State enters this tilt having eclipsed the 30 point plateau in offensive production in 12 straight games, and is currently averaging  42.2 ppg overall in offense including 48.7 ppg in 3 road games. On the flip-side Duke, is averaging 31.2 ppg on offense and scored 41 points in their lone road game and are capable of decent offensive output even against viable Ds. I know both these teams have also displayed strong defenses, but as is evident by the line that favors FSU by 14 or more points, the linesmakers are expecting the Seminoles to do some scoring and run away with this game, and in that evident you can bet that Duke will open up their attack and speed their snap count up which will result in an even more wide open type of affair than many might expect. 

DUKE  vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored.

FLORIDA ST  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 52.4 ppg scored.FLORIDA ST in their L/116 games  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game have seen a combined average of 53.1 ppg scored. 

CFBl teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (DUKE) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 67-35 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the over

The Totals  line  (41.5) was attacked right out of the gate and for good reasons. After sinking in the hjigh 30s it was attacked again to the upside, and thats where we enter into the frey.   

It must be noted that  New Orleans’ last 16 NFL games have  seen 15 of them stay under the total ... with a  combined  average of only 31.5 combined ppg scored ! Considering their recent difficulties scoring it wont be a hard decision to estimate that the Saints points production will be muted against a up-trending Jaguars D. In the flipside the Saints D has only allowed more than 20 points one time this season, so the Jags inconsistent attack should also have problems producing points. 

Allen  in 12 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored. .NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER in the first half of the season this season with a combined average of 34.2 ppg scored. 

 NFL THURSDAY games with a Totals Line of 40.0 or less points   have gone under 10 of the last 11 times in non division tilts. Also Thursday night games have seen  Jacksonville go under  in their L/4  dating back 5 seasons, while the Saints  have gone under in 11 of their L/12 Thursday contests dating back 10 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 UNDER   after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average passing teams (5.9-6.7 PYA). 70-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

After allowing 42 points last week on national tv vs the 49ers the Cowboys will be primed to bounce back defensively this week with what Im betting will be a chip on their shoulders. Quote: "I'm pretty sure (Moore) wants to go out there and put it on us, but you've got to put on some perspective for what we just went through on Sunday and how we're champing at the bit to get out there and get out next game, on the road, so we can kind of just get this taste out of our mouths," Dallas safety Jayron Kearse said.

"We just went out there (against the 49ers) and had an all-time stinker for what this defense is about, and we're ready to go out there and play against somebody as well. So I'm pretty sure he's ready for it and we're ready for it as well."

DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34.5 ppg going on the board. 
DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg scored. DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored.McCarthy is 10-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored. Dallas has gone under in 11 of their L/12 back to back road games.

Dallas has gone under in 6 of their L/7 vs AFC West. 

Chargers have gone under in 12 of their L/15 as home dogs of 4 point or less.

NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 62-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Im betting Carolinas game plan is  to really slow this game down, by running the ball a great deal while taking their time with snaps. The Panthers D, has really been beat up on of late and Im sure a concerted effort to defend aggressively was the mantra in practice this week. /note: CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER  after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.8 ppg scored. Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins attack will not be as potent as usual as they deal with the injury to key RB RB Devon Achane who has 7 TDs in his first 4 games. This missing cog for the Fins makes them more one dimensional offense and easier to read. Advantage to the under 

NFL non-division home favorites of  8 or more points  like Miami is here today  have seen 19 of 22 tilts stay on the low side of the Total  when the offered number is  45 or more points.  

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the under

Two old Mountain West rivals go head to head today in what Im betting will be a back and forth affair. BYU is fresh off a bye week,  and Im betting their top tier offense will be ready and fresh for TCU sometimes viable D.  The Cougars were said to have worked on their running game with the extra prep time, and if they have made advancement it will make their already viable passing game even more tangible. Meanwhile,TCU would be all but eliminated from the Big 12 race with  a loss today, so you can bet they will also be primed to perform in aggressive fashion. 

BYU has averaged 32.5 ppg in offense on the road while allowing 34.5 ppg. Meanwhile TCU 34.5 ppg in offense at home. 

Injury update:BYU wide receivers Kody Epps and Parker Kingston will play for the Cougars against TCU. Epps was one of BYU's top wide receivers in 2022.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TCU) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 64-32 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

MICHIGAN is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons.MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points over the last 2 seasons

We expecting sustained heavy winds tonight in KC, which Im betting hampers these offenses. Add to that the below applicable  trends

Reid is 13-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average 35.9 ppg. Reid is 13-4 UNDER in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 35.3 ppg.Reid is 15-4 UNDER  in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more  yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 45.4 ppg scored.Reid is 15-4 UNDER  off 2 consecutive road wins in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. 

Payton is 12-3 UNDER  when playing on a Thursday in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992 with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 37-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored are 37-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Liberty has averaged 36.8 ppg per game on offense this season, and 46.5 ppg on the road in two tilts. Meanwhile Jacksonville State has averaged 30.5 ppg on offense and Im betting they will have to open up here against a Liberty side that can put points on the board in bunches against the best of defenses. It must be noted that Veteran coach Rich Rodriguez is well respected  for his offensive prowess throughout his career and Im betting he formulates an aggressive effort here in this tilt. I know some of the current team trends might have many leaning to the under, but Im not one of them. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (LIBERTY/Jacksonville St) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), in conference games are 36-8 OVER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 70.7 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (JACKSONVILLE ST) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 22-3 OVER L/31 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 68.6 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

My projections estimate a combined score that will be in low to mid 50s, making this Totals offer vulnerable .New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI) New Mexico State  solid run game should really pile up the yards  against an FIU defense that ranks 98th in Stuff Rate and 53rd in Defensive Rushing Plays Explosiveness. The Aggies coming in to their last game at  Hawaii were averaging 33 points per game and 4.1 Points per Opportunity , but very high winds gave their offense some problems in that tilt, but here this week back at home should be ready to roll. Meanwhile, the Panthers have  recorded one-score victories over Maine, North Texas, and UConn  and must not be under estimated in their ability to fire back offensively here on the road in Las Cruces. 

 I know these teams have played a slow pace so far, but Im betting the Aggies ability to put points on the board via their run game will force the FIU to up the tempo and for total to be eclipsed. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 35-9 OVER L/30 season's for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over

After allowing 37 points in. a loss vs Houston last week you can bet this Jacksonville coaching staff went to work here to motivate their embarrassed players into having a much better and concentrated effort this Sunday. It must also be noted that after scoring just nine points in a 17-9 loss to Kansas City, Jacksonville failed to score in the first half last week and its obvious their offense is just not clicking . Thats    evident by  quarterback Trevor Lawrences  one touchdown pass record in his last two games. Here against a Flacons side, that have been solid defensively I just cant see things getting much better from a production standpoint. On the flipside the Flacons depend greatly on their ground attack to keep the pressure of their young QB Ridder who is in his 2nd season. With that said, Im betting on alot of clock being eaten up here by the Falcons via the run game  and for a much better effort from Jacksonville defensively to help us stay under the number here this week in London. 

Jacksonville  is 10-2 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.

  Games played at WEMBLEY STADIUM   have gone a  perfect 6-0 UNDER  in the last L/5 seasons, with an average of only 35.3 combined PPG going up on the scoreboard.

Play on the under

Temple according to my power rankings is improving , and tonight I expect Owls QB Warner to light up a ugly looking Tulsa secondary for some decent production. I expect most of Qwls offense to come through the air, as their run offense has been quiet to say the least as evident by ranking 120th in the nation in rushing success .  Defensively, Temple has some issues ranking   105th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 126th in Havoc .With that said Im betting on Tulsas run heavy offense to really do some damage here vs a Temple side that ranks 67th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 90th in Rushing PPA. Both sides should see some explosive offensve production all be it in two different ways, but the bottom line remains intact and that is a higher socring game than the linesmakers totals offering suggests. My projections estimate both sides will score more than 28 points.TEMPLE is 27-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points with the combined average score clicking in at 77.8 ppg.TULSA is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. 

Play over

These teams have a recent history of taking part in some high scoring affairs as is evident by the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 52.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. I know Carolinas offense has not looked all that explosive out of the gate this season, but they    do go  against a Seattle side that is off a 37-31 slugfest last time out and that also allowed 30 points in a loss to the Rams in week 1 play. With that said, my projections estimate both these sides will score 21 plus points. SEATTLE is 10-0 OVER   when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

Carroll is 31-17 OVER after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of SEATTLE

NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 26-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Jayhawks are the nation’s top-ranked team  overall in returning production, and are currently outgunning their opponents this season by an average +231 net YPG and averaging 37 plus points per game on the season. Meanwhile, BYU in back to back games have scored 38 and 41 points and thanks to not being able to run the ball consistently have been firing away down field via their passing game. Today Im betting on a back and forth all guns blazing tilt with the combined average score eclipsing this number. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28 plus points. KANSAS is 40-5 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points with a combined average of 77.5 ppg scored. .BYU is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 9-0 OVER when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored. 

Leipold is 10-1 OVER  after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached with a combined average of 76.4 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 41-16 OVER L/31 seasons. 

Play over

Niners had the league’s No.1 scoring defense last season  allowing just  17.2 ppg  and are off holding the Steelers to  7 points and a total of  239 yards on offense. On the flipsdie, the Rams, travelled to  Seattle in week 1 action and  slowed the Seahawks down to a crawl, as is evident by  allowing just  180 total yards and  only 13 points. 

Needless to say both the LA Rams and the SF 49ers looked very good defensively in game 1 of the season. Both did this while playing in the visitors role. Note:NFL Game2  sides  playing in the their 2nd  of back-to-back away tilts like the 49ers  have only eclipsed the offered total just twice in 18 opportunities dating back 7 seasons. Also away  sides like SF,  have  gone under 13 of their L/14  road  games  after allowing 7  pts or less  on the road in their  previous  game. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons.

Defense, Defense and more defense today in what Im betting will be a grinding tilt. 

NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 64% or better, versus division opponents are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

ECU defense ranks  99th in total defense and 104th in scoring defense  and Im betting is in deep trouble vs the  Mountaineers. Meanwhile, App State is top-50 in total offense, passing offense, rushing offense and scoring offense and Im betting they tee off here today on their own home field vs a side that looks vulnerable . App State D, has also been sub par and even though the Pirates have not really been rhythmic on offense so far this season they should do enough damage here to help us eclipse this beat down number. Houston is 10-0 OVER off a home loss as the coach of E CAROLINA with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored. (E.Carolina lost last time out 31-13 to Marshall.)

Play over

The Jets  and Bills have a recent low scoring matchup history as is evident by three straight under in the last 3 meetings  with   37, 37, and 32 combined points going on the scoreboard. Last season Buffalo went under the Total in 7 of 8 road games when favored, while the Jets went under in 4 of 5 games as home pups. BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 ppg scored. 

Also Monday night home dogs have remained on the low side of the number 13 straight times over the last couple of seasons. Considering this field is prob going to be in bad shape after the Dallas. NY Giants games on Sunday it would be fair to access that the sledding could be rough for the offenses which once again favors a lower scoring affair. 

NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under 

Detroit is 12-0 OVER Game 1 of the season and have gone over  4 straight vs AFC West... DETROIT is 14-1 OVER  in road games against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Lions allowed 6.2 ypg on D last season dead last in the NFL. Im betting on Mahomes and company to rack up points again, and for Lions QB  Jeff Goff  who had 4438 yards and 29 TDs last season to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own. KC is  8-0  L/8 OVER  Game 1 of the campaign... 8-0 OVER  L8 vs Motown with a combined average 56 ppg scored. . Chiefs scored 44 points  in the opening week win over the Arizona Cardinals in 2022, and have scored at least 33 points in every opener since 2017 and they Im betting will be the the catalysts for what Im betting will be an over cashing for us here tonight.

Play over. 

Central Michigan returns nine starters on defense .After ranking top-50 nationally in EPA/Rush Allowed and Defensive Line Yards and  they should be tough to work against once again. Michigan State returns four starters on the offensive line, but its line ranked 122nd in Offensive Line Yards and 116th in Stuff Rate allowed so scoring and moving the chains could easily be problem here tonight against a formidable defense. Meanwhile, Central Michigan has to replace their starting QB and running back from last season, and they also could find the sledding tough here early this season. The Spartans return seven starters on defense and the rest of the class looks to be tough as nails, Im seeing this being their strength this season. All in all Im projecting a fairly low scoring event with this Total not being eclipsed.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (C.MICH/MICHIGAN ST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 42-10 UNDER L/31 seasons with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored. 

Play under 

NC Carolinas defense was elite last season, and will once again come in with some of the best defensive players in all of college football especially at the linebacker position ie Payton Wilson. Last years offensive coordinator  Beck left NC for Coastal Carolina, so the offense will Im betting be a work in progress  out of the gate against a strong UConn defense. Note: NC Star quarterback Devin Leary transferred to Kentucky so as I said, things will be different, and will take time to jell. On the flipside, the Huskies will once again lean on their running game, behind new QB Joe Fagnano and that will eat up alot of clock time in what should be a grinding early season affair that gives the edge to the defenses and not the offenses. 

NC STATE is 22-6 UNDER when playing on a Thursday since 1992 with a combined average score 44.9 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (UCONN/NC STATE) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 84-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under 

Im betting the Eagles have no intention of turning this into a shootout, but rather a war of attrition and that means they will  stubbornly stick to their vaunted ground attack which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Chiefs under rated D, will not be easily  be run over and points for the Eagles will Im betting be muted . These two key projections have me taking an under wager here this Sunday for the Super Bowl. 

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season this season.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER   after a win by 3 or less points over the last 2 seasons. Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 UNDER L/20  after allowing 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games  Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games on grass.Under is 16-5-1 in Eagles last 22 playoff games.Under is 60-27 in Eagles last 87 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

 Play UNDER

I know Joe Burrows and Patrick Mahomes keep the spot light on a possible shootout, but according to my projections that is unlikely in a do or die championship  play off game.  The Chiefs have allowed an average of just 19.4 ppg at home this season while the Bengals have allowed just 20.6 ppg in away tilts.  

 KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER   in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. 

Six of the L/7 meetings here in KC between these teams has stayed on the low side of the offered Total. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 49-21 UNDER  L/39 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Im betting Miami turns this into a physical grinding play off affair that ends in a combined score that will not eclipse this totals offering. Slow and easy will be the clock eating mission of the Fins as they try to keep QB Josh Allen on the sidelines as long as possible.  MIAMI is 12-3 UNDER   in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 Wildcard games.

Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 playoff games

BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER  in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

NFL team against the total (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 47-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Under is 7-3 in Bills last 10 vs. AFC.

Play UNDER 

 These teams the Chiefs and Seahawks  have played scorched earth all out  offensive slugfests in recent meetings going  5-0 OVER in the last 5 matchups with a combined  average score  of 62.6  ppg going on the scoreboard. With that said, Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this week, as the leagues most explosive offense lead by QB Mahomes takes on the  2nd worst road defense in the league this season as the Seahawks allow 56.7 ppg away from home. Im betting on the Chiefs doing some damage here offensively  (projection of 28+ points) and for the Seahawks to be in all chase mode, which will help us see a combined score that eclipses this offering.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 OVER  when they score 28 or more points this season with a combined average 52.2 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 12-1 OVER when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 68 ppg scored. Im also projecting Seattle to score 20+ points-SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 63 ppg scored.  

Play on the OVER 

Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

When Wake Forest takes to the gridiron and top gun QB Hartman is leading the offense you can almost expect offensive fire works from them, even against the best of defenses. They enter this game, having scored 34, 45, 31 points respectively in 3 straight  and even against a staunch Missouri D, they have the ability to rock the house with a boatload full of points. On the flipisde the Demon Deacons own a sometimes porous D, that has allowed more than 31 ppg on the road this season. Meanwhile, Missouri has played their best D, at home , but on the road their numbers surge to an average of 31.4 ppg. Tonight Im betting the Deacons to get into the 30s offensively and for Missouri to have to be aggressive and also do some damage, against a D, that will not be as daunting as those they faced in the SEC. 

Drinkwitz is 6-0 OVER  after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as the coach of MISSOURI.

Clawson is 8-1 OVER after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of WAKE FOREST with the average combined score clicking in at 65.8 ppg.

Play OVER

My projections estimate both sides will eclipse the 20 point plateau giving us strong value with an over wager . Note: PITTSBURGH is 14-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVE when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-3 OVER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 50-21 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

The L/6 meetings in this series have seen both teams combined to average 48.8 ppg. 

Play on the over 

LendingTree Bowl - Hancock Whitney Stadium - Mobile, AL

  Southern Miss defense can stop run games cold as is evident by having limited the opposition to fewer than 150 rushing yards on average per game this season.That makes me believe Rice despite of throwing more than their share of picks this season will be forced to air the ball out, which will see them also score above the expected output, and see some extra points go up on the board against them because of their atrocious turnover ratios. On the flipside,  Frank Gore Jr., who ran for  1,000 plus rushing yards this season for Southern Miss should have a field day on the ground vs a Owls  side that struggles against ground attacks  ranking  91st against the run, allowing 166.5 rushing yards per game. Southern Miss also has alot of turnovers (22) so some unexpected offense could easily be stymied but go the other way. Sloppy game expected and more points than the lines-makers are projecting to go on the board. 

Over is 4-0 in Owls last 4 vs. S-Belt.

RICE is 8-0 OVER  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 62.9 ppg scored. Rices L/24 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored.

Over is 5-1 in Golden Eagles last 6 non-conference games.

Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

Play OVER

Denver just cant put points on the board, consistently especially with Wilson under center. Note: Wilson’s 83.5 Passer Rating ranks No. 29th  of all starting quarterbacks during this campaign. I know the Chiefs pass D is sometimes porous , but DENVER is just  8-1 UNDER  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 32.4 ppg scored. Meanwhile, we know the Chiefs can pile up points but it must also be noted that Denvers D is a solid group,  as as a result of this are  9-2 UNDER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.3 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC.

NFL road favs off a road chalk defeat in their last game like the Chiefs  have gone under in their following game in  all 6 times this has happened this season. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 7.3  or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 25-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

DENVER is 9-0 UNDER in games played on a natural surface field this season and 11-1 under on the season. Under is 22-7 in Broncos last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play UNDER

This total according to my projections is a bit high and we have an edge with an under wager here this Thursday night. I know the Raiders have been rolling but HC Jacobs is dealing with some injuries that may slow that roll . On the flip-side the Rams are decimated offensively as the injuries  are sky high, and Im betting they wont be able to take advantage of below average Raiders D. Note: Raiders rank 23rd in situation-neutral pace and Rams rank 28th.

Game 13 teams like the Rams  with a win %   of .250 or less, when the  Totals offering is 42 or more have gone under in   21 of the L/24 times for a 88% conversion rate dating back 9 seasons. 

LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  33.8 ppg scored. 

LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg. 

Raiders have gone under in 4 of their L/5 non division road games as favs. 

Rams have gone under in their 3 Thursday night tilts,   

NFL Road teams against the total (LAS VEGAS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

SEC Championship Game - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

This total has steamed up by almost 5 points since opening and now that it's been over done Ill come back and take a contrarian stance and hit the under offering. 

Georgia has allowed 12.4 ppg on the road this season.The Dawgs have allowed 20 or less points in their L/7 games.( 10, 0, 20, 13, 19, 6, 14) Im betting Georgia will not allow more than 17 this week, while my own projections estimate a 31 point offensive output . 

GEORGIA is 6-0 UNDER when they score 29 to 35 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.8 ppg scored.

Kelly is 16-6 UNDER  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 49.9 ppg scored. 

GEORGIA is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.4 ppg scored.

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 35-8 UNDER L/30 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 43 ppg scored.

CFB  team against the total (GEORGIA) - outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with a combined average of 46.5 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

C-USA Championship Game

North Texas has allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their L/4 games and are capable of staling the Roadrunners offense. Meanwhile, UTSA has allowed 7 points exact in two of their L/3. With this being a championship game, Im betting the action will not be as wide open as reg season action, and a more chess like game will be played. Im not saying is will be a defensive sleeper, but I am betting the final score will not top this steamed up offering. 

UTSA is 7-0 UNDER   sub par  defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored.

CFB  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (UTSA) - off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 25-3 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 62.4 ppg. 

Play UNDER

 BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  as a road favorite this season with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. But with this prime time game registering like a play off affair Im betting on an even lower combined score in what Im betting will be a grinding affair. 

New England's consistency on offense is something that aids us tonight with this wager.  They do not rank in the top half of the league in any statistical category. The Pats had some production  last week vs the  Vikings defense that ranks 31st in the league and dead last against the pass. But that wont be the case here vs a Buffalo D, that despite of inconsistencies is ready and capable of standing tall here tonight. Yes, last weeks Buffalos D failed it, but they will be primed for a complete game bounce back. Last week, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson used a lot of pre-snap motion and formations to generate one-on-one matchups, but the Pats are not capable of this with this current group . 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite are 27-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 37.3 ppg going on the board. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 61-24 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 41.6 ppg.

Play UNDER

The 49ers offense is multi dimensional with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell at running back, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and  tight end George Kittle. Im betting this group. matches up well for the Saints D, and does some damage . On the flispide Andy Dolton and the Saints despite of some inconsistencies put 27 points on the Rams last week in a victory and should not be underestimated in their ability to do have decent output vs. a strong SF D. Note:The Saints stand 8th in the league in passing offense with 237.5 yards per game and Im betting the 49ers will force them to bomb away as SF goes above their expected offensive output average. 

NFC WEST home teams like the 49ers  vs any NFC SOUTH opponent like New Orleans , when the Total offering is  43  or more points are  10-1 OVER L/4 seasons. 

New Orleans and the SF 49ers have gone over  9 straight times here in California  with a combined  average of 52.5 ppg going on the board!

Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.

Play OVER

No matter what stats both offensively or defensively have been recorded by either side this season should be discarded and it must be noted that this is a heated rivalry that is often very physical and grueling. This kind of battle also usually ends in a lower scoring affair as compared to the totals offering. These teams have gone under in 10 of their L/13 meetings in Ole Miss and in the two most recent battles these teams did not eclipse hefty totals of 71 and 65.5 with both tilts coming well under theses numbers registering in at 52 and 55 points respectively. 

OLE MISS is 8-1 UNDER  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53 points going on the board.OLE MISS is 10-2 UNDER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 road games.

80% Chance of rain in Oxford Thursday night.

CFB team against the total (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 191-113 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

The Giants were torched for 31 points last time out vs Detroit in a loss and now Im betting will be more focused and prepared to try to pair up their defense, by trying to slow this game down to a grind by using their running game , especially knowing they will be playing an explosive Dallas offense. Meanwhile, Dallas behind a strong D, allowing just 16.2 ppg at home this season will once again be hard to score on. This above mentioned combo Im betting will lead to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.

NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 9-1 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. 

NY GIANTS are 23-8 UNDER  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 21-8 UNDER  in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 games in Week 12.Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games in November.Under is 20-5-2 in Giants last 27 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games.Under is 21-6-1 in Giants last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 9-3-2 in Giants last 14 vs. NFC.Under is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC East.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a ATS loss.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a straight up loss.Under is 33-16-2 in Giants last 51 games overall.

DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER  versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored.

Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 13-3-1 in Cowboys last 17 games on fieldturf

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 61-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Im sure the pundits and weekend warriors are expecting a passing duel when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs go head to head with  Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. However,  both these teams are most prob going to have key receivers out of the lineup this week and Im betting  that will hamper big downfield plays. Key here will be  the Chargers  inconsistent  offense this season behind a banged up QB Herbert’s who is still not 100% with a  rib injury, which happened in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs. Throw in the WR issues and the Chargers could have problems with point production vs a under rated KC defense and fail to live up to offensive estimates from the lines-makers which makes for an inflated Total that is vulnerable to be taken advantage of from under bettors. 

Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in November.Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 vs. AFC.

LA CHARGERS are 29-12 UNDER (L/41 in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 25-12 UNDER L/37 in home games revenging a same season loss against opponent with a combined average of 39.6 ppg going on the board.

Under is 22-6 in Chargers last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game

Game 15  or less  road chalk of  6 or more points with a Totals line of 49 or more   have gone under in 12 of the L/13 times dating back 3 seasons. 

NFL games in which the home team is an UNDERDOG have gone  16-42 UNDER overall and 0-6 UNDER when AFC team is the home dog .  

NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games. are 73-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

Last week Aaron Rogers  and  the Packers looked rejuvenated with a OT win vs the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have suffered through  an ugly start  to their season, and has possibly help resurrect themselves behind  rookie WR Christian Watson  who came to the fore front as he produced some much needed  forward momentum  as he scored three touchdowns including  8 receptions ( 107 ypg)  . Im betting on the Packers continuing to look downfield after last weeks successes and for a decent output vs a viable Titans D. However, on the flip-side the Packers D, has not been all that stable allowing 24, 27, 27, 23, 27, 28 points respectively 6 of their L/7 tilts.  With the Tennessee being a run heavy side, and the Packers rankings 28th against the run, my points projection out projections look ready to be proven right. Note: Star  RB Henry  has been sub par this season , but will have a field day vs a side that allows 4.8 yards per carry.Im betting the Titans hit those  above averages offensively and help get this game over the offered Total.   My projections point to both sides putting 20plus points on the board. Note: TENNESSEE is 16-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average  of 60.2 ppg scored.

GREEN BAY is 17-5 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 57.8 ppg scored in those 22 tilts. 

Vrabel is 8-1 OVER  in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of TENNESSEE with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored. TENNESSEE is 20-8 OVER  against NFC North division opponents since 1992 with a combined average of 51.3 ppg scored. Tennessee is  5-1 OVER L/6 vs NFC North and 8-3 OVER L/11 as non-conference road pups. 

LaFleur is 20-9 OVER  after playing a game at home as the coach of GREEN BAY with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored. 

GB is 4-0 OVER off a win as an underdog and   3-0 OVER L3 vs Tennessee  with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored and  7-0 OVER on  Thursdays vs non-division opposition and  11-2 OVER in the  2nd of back to back home games. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (GREEN BAY/TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games are 144-88 OVER L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

 My own number on this total is 47 thus prompting to back recommending  an over wager here.

Im betting  top tier QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Hebert take part in a back forth Sunday night event. 

LA  Chargers have cashed on the OVER in  10 of their L/11  non division games  when the Totals offering  is  51 points or less with the average combined score clicking in at 60.1 ppg.

Chargers are 4-0 OVER L/4 in back to back road games  and  7-1 OVER vs NFC West  and  12-4 OVER as division road dog of 3 points or more . 

SF is 6-1 OVER  off road dog victory and 5-1 OVER off division road win and .8-2 OVER at home after allowing 14 points or less . These teams have combined to average of 59.2 ppg in their L/4 meetings

Over is 10-4 in Chargers last 14 games overall.

LA CHARGERS are 19-8 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 55.7 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 19-9 OVER  after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.2 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the OVER 

 .These two sides in head to head action have taken part in some high scoring tilts with the last five meetings going over the set total with a combined average of , 65.4 combined ppg registering on the scoreboard.  Im betting two hungry sides who need to get untracked go after each other from the get fo today and contribute to a higher scoring affair than the data might project. 

Note:  The Rams were off their Bye last Sunday before their defeat to the 49ers at home.  Despite of being well rested  the Rams lost .

NFL sides like the Rams have gone over 7 straight times when off a SU/ATS home chalk loss after their Bye Week.

Another interesting trend: Tampa  goes to Europe next week . Dating back 17 seasons, non-division NFC sides  before playing in a neutral  site tilt  like the Bucs will the total has been eclipsed ,  20 of 22 times , when the Total offering  is between 39 and 49.5 points . 

 Bowles is 12-2 OVER  in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER  in road games off a division game as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

McVay is 12-4 OVER  as a road underdog as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 55.5 ppg scored. 

TB is 5-0 L/5 vs NFC West.

Play OVER 

 The Buffalo D ranked 1st in the NFL is staunch to say the least allowing  an average of 14 ppg overall and have seen their 6 of  their 7 games  games stay under the total and all 4 of their home games with a combined average of 43.6 ppg go on the score board while allowing an average of 9.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Jets defense ranked 6th in the league has allowed 19.5 ppg in division games and 13.7 ppg in their L/3 games overall with all going under the set total. 

AFC East division confrontations  have gone 4-21 UNDER  L/10 seasons and have gone under  16 of their L/18  dating back 5 season  when the Host side  is an underdog of +3.5 or more points .  

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite 23-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Eagles defense (allowing 16.9 ppg)  ranks second in DVOA against the pass and in no way will the Texans game plan be based on play option, rather, Im betting  it will  focus on making this into a sleep fest with a slow deliberate ground attack. Note: Texans QB Mills  ranks  29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt in the league among starting QBs. Meanwhile, on the flip-side the Texans have been viable in their secondary, ranking 17th in DVOA vs the pass  , so the explosive Eagles run attack will be put into primary  action vs a porous Houston run D. What Im expecting here is for a run heavy game to take place, and for it to be grinding in nature which will aid us in my recommendation that we take an under stance here on this Totals offering. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games in November.

Under is 10-4 in Texans last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.

Thursday  night NFC sides  like Philly in away tilts vs AFC opp like Houston   have gone under 10 of  the L/12 times with the average combined ppg  averaging  35.6 .  Thursday non-division away sides  like the Eagles off 2 consecutive SU/ATS wins have gone under 8 straight times. Thursday night pups like the Texans  off a SU/ATS division loss  have gone under 7 straight times since the 2016 campaign.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 68-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

These teams secondaries look weak at best. The Vikings  rank 28th in passing defense giving up an average 272 ypg  while Cardinals   rank 25th in give up an average of /260 ypg . With two more than capable QBs playing today  (Murray vs Cousins) Im expecting a wide open down field affair with plenty of points going on the board. 

The Vikings are on fresh legs off a bye which sets up well for a all out attack. Note: NFC home favorites after their Bye Week going against another NFC opponent like the Cards  when the Totals offering is 51 or less points have gone over 20 of the L/22 dating back to the 2016 season.

 NFL sides with a .800  record or better as home favs of 6 points or less like the Vikings  going against a less than .500 side like  the Cards , when the Totals  offering comes in at between 45 to 54 points has gone over 14 straight times dating back to the 2014 campaign. 

 Minnesota has gone over the total in 15 of their L/20 home tilts including going over in 9 of 10 with a 49 or more totals offering from the books. 

The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 55 ppg go on the board. 

Play on the OVER

Chiefs QB Mahomes and company are explosive offensively but they go against a SF side that are  allowing  just  255 yards per game  and 14.9 ppg which gives them the No.1 rank in the league defensively. Meanwhile the 49ers Im betting will also want to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible and grind away with their ground game in effort to slow this game down to a grinding affair . All in all I expect this tilt to be lower scoring than the lines-makers and pundits expect. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER  vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more yards per return over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. SF is 2-12 UNDER L/14 dating back to last season. Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games following a straight up loss which was the case last time out. 

NFL Home teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with combined average of 40.4 ppg game.

Play UNDER 

I know the Jets D, has played well lately while the Broncos offense has struggled, but Im betting that Denvers  QB Wilson finally gets rolling this week, and that the Jets offense continues to uptrend. 

NYJ are 8-1 OVER  vs opposition  off Monday night  tilt like Denver. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DENVER) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-2 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 49-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate! 

Play on the OVER 

This totals selection is based on a projection system that I have used during the L/30 seasons. My assessment is that based on the type of football both sides are playing a lower scoring affair than the offered number should be expected. 

Ball State has gone under in 4 of their L/5 overall. 

Under is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 home games.Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 conference games.Under is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 games on fieldturf.Under is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games in October. Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

BALL ST is 10-2 UNDER ) after playing a game at home over the last 3 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored. Neu is 11-1 UNDER  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of BALL ST with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. 

CFB  team against the total (E MICHIGAN) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

CFB team against the total (BALL ST) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 62-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

Denver has gone under  10 straight times off a  fav loss which happened last week in a 12-9 defeat . They are also  0-6 UNDER after playing on a  Thursday tilt and  and have gone under 5 straight times in Monday night Football prime time affairs as a combined average of  (38.8 ppg )going  on the scoreboard.. The Broncos have also gone under in 12 of their L/14 division road tilts. Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS have gone under the total in 4 straight Monday night home games and have played some fairly los scoring affairs vs the Broncos with a combined average of 35 ppg scored when playing as hosts. Everything points to another low scoring sleeper in this spot play.Note: Monday night visiting sides off playing on Thursday last week at home like Denver have gone under 7 straight times dating back 6 seasons.

Denvers last 22 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 18-7 UNDER L/25 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. 

LA CHARGERS are 6-0 UNDER  after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 points per game scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience

Dallas last 3 meetings vs the Eagles has seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board.

McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached in his career.

Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 home games. Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 26-1 OVER L/39 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Texas shutout Oklahoma last week and the defense is obviously starting to show signs of up trending this season. Also after scoring 49 points last week a natural regression must be expected  fro the Longhorns offense, especially in a letdown scenario. Meanwhile , Iowa State no matter what their record is entering this game, have remained a tough side to play against as the defense remains staunch, allowing 10 or less points in 4 tilts and allowing more than 14 points only once this season. Everything points to a low scoring tilt that remains on the low side of the total. Note: 7 of the L/8 meeting in Texas have stayed under the total.

Campbell is 10-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (IOWA ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Lafayette goes with a back up QB against a  Marshall defense that ranks 13th in total defense and allows just 281 yards per game. Im betting they struggle to put points on the board. Meanwhile, the the flip-side the visitors, has played a fairly solid brand of D, allowing only 1 of opponents to breach the 21 point plateau against them, and Im betting their stoppers find a way to control the Thundering herds offensive attack . Advantage to the under. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45.8  ppg scored. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 UNDER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44.2 ppg scored.

Under is 7-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 7 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 15-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 21 games in October.Under is 39-15-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 55 conference games.Under is 13-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 27-11-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 39 games overall.

Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Under is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play UNDER 

KC played a big game and notched a victory against Tampa Bay last time out in a high scoring 41-31 affair,  the Chiefs now in a letdown situation regression should be on the table, and that will aid in this tilt staying on the low side of the total. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.LAS VEGAS is 38-19 UNDERL/57 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. Note: The Raiders found a way to win last time out, finally stopping the run ,which correlates with these trends. Under is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games following a straight up win.

The 5 Monday night games so far this season have seen a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games. 

 Reid is 21-6 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 265  or more PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Kansas City.

Play UNDER 

The Red River Shootout rivalry may not be as explosive as the lines-makers are suggesting according to my projections.  Texas and Oklahoma could be changing starters this week — Oklahoma to Pitt transfer Davis Beville because of the head injury suffered by Gabriel, and Texas from Hudson Card to Quinn Ewers, who started the first two games of the season. Changing QBs no matter who considered the starter can sometimes hamper offenses to start clicking again and thats what Im betting on here. A high scoring affair is not out of the question, but according to my projections as mentioned above a combined score that eclipses this number is unlikely. 

CFB team against the total (OKLAHOMA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with the average combined ppg clicking in at 47.5 . 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (TEXAS) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 42-9 UNDER with  a combined average of 60.5 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

 Nebraska’s is registered at a lowly  No. 124 overall defense and Rutgers Im betting piles up some points here well above their season average . I know the Scarlet Knights defense has been staunch but still projects to allow between 20 and 27 points according to my estimates which will help us easily eclipse this total. Note: Nebraska put 28 points and 35 points on the board against both their Big 10 opponents this season Northwestern and Indiana. 

RUTGERS is 6-0 OVER in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  56.3 ppg scored. RUTGERS is 14-4 OVER   off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more with a combined average of 52.3 ppg scored. (Ohio State pummeled them last week)

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (RUTGERS) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 22-3 OVER L/30 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Arizona is 4-0 OVER L4 vs Carolina with a combined average of 51 ppg going on the scoreboard ---  Arizona is also 10-1 OVER  L11 vs NFC South  with a combined average of 58.1 ppg scored.  Panthers are 7-0 OVER  L7 vs NFC West  with a combined average of 55.1 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Over is 7-2 in Panthers last 9 games in Week 4.

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

These two teams run the ball more than they pass it and are ranked in the top 5 in that category. With that said, I expect alot of time consuming running plays to eat up the clock and for a lower scoring very physical  type affair to be played. I know the Falcons have gone over in 3 straight games, all covers, but it must be noted that NFL home teams off 3 or more ATS victories  that  saw them  go ‘OVER the Total are 0-6 to the under the L/5 seasons.

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons of 37.3 ppg scored.

Cleveland has also gone over in 3 straight but regression here is an expected outcome according to my projections. Note: AFC away chalk  of  1 or more  points  like the Browns  have seen 16 of their L/17 tilts go UNDER  versus any NFC opponent  when the totals offering is  54 points or less. Clevelands last 21 games vs  NFC South division opponents has seen a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Colts QB Ryan threw three interceptions and was sacked five times in the loss to Jacksonville last week. The Colts had just 218 yards and nine first downs and Im betting things dont get much better vs a under rated top tier Chiefs D. Colts lack of attack will be a contributing factor in this game staying under the set total. 

Under is 7-0 in Colts last 7 games overall.Under is 6-0 in Colts last 6 vs. AFC.

These teams have gone under in 4 straight meetings with the average combined ppg clicking in at 34.8 . 

INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for btettors with the average combined score clicking in at 40.5 ppg. 

Play on under 

Oregon State has been explosive so far against sub par defenses, but today vs a top tier USC D, they will Im betting regress substantially which will directly have on effect of this total . Im leaning heavily on this number not being eclipsed. 

Jonathan is 6-0 UNDER  in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of OREGON ST with a combined average of 55.7 ppg. OREGON ST is 12-3 UNDER  in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game with a combined average of 49.1 ppg.

USC is 11-2 UNDER  in road games after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 44 ppg. 

 CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (OREGON ST) - after scoring 50 points or more last game against opponent after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 23-2 UNDER L/5 seasons with the average ppg scored coming in at 54.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER

Defending super bowl champion Rams looked asleep at the wheel in their opening game loss by a 31-10 count to the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night. Note:NFL teams  like LAR who scored 10 or less points in a Thursday night tilt  have gone  under 16 straight times  in their follow game dating back 5 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg going on the board. Atlanta also lost which is important as  NFL contests  have gone UNDER 28 of their L/36 opportunities  when both  sides  are of a home defeat  in their last game  . Everything points to this being a low scoring affair as the early season rust and attention to strong Defensive play remains important. 

Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 road games. 

LA RAMS are 16-4 UNDER  in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons

Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games on fieldturf.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

. NFL team against the total (ATLANTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points are 46-16 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Im betting the Giants will continue push the ball on the ground with Barkley and play a slow grinding type of football in the trenches. With Carolina looking offensively vulnerable and their D which was no 1 in the NFC last year being the key to their successes and failures Im  looking at beatable totals numbers as a  critical money making factor this season .  With that said my projections make this this number a viable to the under investment option  NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER  in home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 32.9 ppg scored  and have actually gone under in 12 straight homes games with a combined average of 34 ppg going on the board . NY GIANTS are 15-4 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.7 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 8-1 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. Giants have gone under 7 of their L/8 times as fav or dog of less than 3 points. Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Carolina has gone under 9 straight times with NO Saints on board in their following tilt which is the case this week. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS/ CAROLINA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 32-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER