Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Of course much will be made of the elite nature of both of these defenses heading into this Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Both defenses are certainly deserving of respect, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone a little too far by setting this total in the low-200's - in fact, I think this will likely be the lowest posted total we see in this series. While the Celtics defense obviously held up well against the Bucks last round, some of that had to do with Milwaukee missing its best option outside of Giannis on offense in Khris Middleton. Without him the Bucks struggled to find consistent offensive production, despite being afforded plenty of opportunities, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in five of seven games in the series. If the Celtics allow the Heat to get up into that range in terms of field goal attempts, things could get ugly. You see the Heat have been filling boxscores for weeks, having knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 of their last 16 games overall. In the final two games against Philadelphia last round they had seven and five players score in double-figures. The question becomes whether Boston can do its part offensively to help this total along. I believe the answer is yes, as evidenced by the very short pointspread we're looking at in Game 1. The C's check in having scored 100+ points in 15 of their last 16 games. Despite the pace not always being there, they've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 of their last 16 games. They certainly would have got there in Game 7 against the Bucks were it not for the lopsided nature of that contest, giving them the ability to 'call off the dogs' late. Take the over (10*). |
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen these two teams trade blowouts over the last two games and I won't be surprised if we see more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday as the Suns return home looking to close out the Mavs. Dallas has reached a high-water mark of 40 made field goals in this series, failing to reach that number in any of the last three contests. In fact, the Suns have held the Mavs to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the six games in this series. Meanwhile, Phoenix is coming off its ugliest shooting performance of the series in Game 6. We expected a response from the Mavs in that game and saw exactly that as they locked down the Suns potent offense. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, noting that the Suns are a terrific 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.9 points on average in that situation. They're also 24-11 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.0 points in that spot. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Celtics (free play) in Game 6 of this series on Friday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and grab the points with the Bucks as the series shifts back to Beantown for a seventh-and-deciding game on Sunday afternoon. I really like the job the Bucks have done defensively in this series, even if it hasn't always translated to victories. They've held the Celtics to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all six games so far. Were it not for they themselves being unable knock down their shots on Friday night, we would probably already be talking about the Bucks moving on to their next opponent. Save for a blowout defeat in Game 2 in Boston, Milwaukee has been able to get loose offensively, getting off 90+ FG attempts in four of six games in this series. And we've already seen the Bucks respond favorably in games they've 'needed' in this series, taking the series-opener by double-digits, grabbing the 2-1 series lead in Game 3 at home and then rallying to steal a pivotal Game 6 back in Boston. Expect the battle-tested Bucks to step up again here, noting that the Celtics are a woeful 6-18 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 218 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 33 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Wednesday but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 6 on Friday. Here, we'll note that Memphis has posted a 5-16 o/u record when coming off a win by 30+ points in the long-term picture, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have now gotten off 91+ field goal attempts in all five games in this series but I believe this is the game where that tide turns, noting that Ja Morant remains sidelined and the Warriors will be intent on putting their foot down and wrapping this series up on their home floor. Keep in mind, Golden State has held opponents to just 37-of-87 shooting on average here at home this season. The Warriors have now allowed Memphis to knock down 40+ field goals in three straight games but that's their longest such streak since the first week of March. Again, I look for them to make amends here. The 'under' is 25-16 with the Warriors listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, which is the situation here at the time of writing, leading to an average total of just 214.2 points. Take the under (9*). |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 33 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Grizzlies the last time these two teams met on this floor in Game 4 earlier in the week. We followed that up with an easy winner with the 'over' in Game 5 on Wednesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Warriors - who we successfully backed in Game 3 last Saturday - as they look to close out this series back in San Francisco. Credit the Grizzlies for showing up and showing out in what will likely prove to be their home finale two nights ago, without Ja Morant no less. They're still without Ja and much like we saw in Game 4, I believe they'll have a tough time mounting enough offense to keep pace with the Warriors. Golden State checks in 8-1 ATS this season when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 19.6 points on average in that spot. The Warriors are also a long-term 23-7 ATS when playing at home after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game, as is the case here. For their part, the Grizzlies - despite the outright upset win on Wednesday - are a woeful 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when facing elmination in a playoff series. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-13-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 211.5 | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The last two games in this series have both gone 'over' the total and we were on that play in each contest. Here, I'll go the other way, however, as the scene shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 6 on Friday night. Note that the Bucks have allowed the Celtics to make good on 42 field goals in each of the last two games. We haven't seen them allow 40+ made field goals in more than two consecutive games since back in March. On the flip side, Milwaukee has gotten off 90+ field goal attempts in four of five games in this series. With that being said, it has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in all five games. That speaks to the effectiveness of the Celtics defense and we should see that again here as Boston faces elimination for the first time in these playoffs. Note that the 'under' is 38-23 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. While the last two games in this series have been reasonably high-scoring, I still don't think anything is coming easy for either team offensively with most shots contested and four of five games in the series seeing one, if not both teams held to 10 or fewer made three-pointers. Take the under (7*). |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 5 of this series two nights ago - a never-in-doubt 35-point laugher. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way, however, and back the 76ers as they look to force a seventh game in this series. The home side has won and covered in all five games in this series. Here, we'll look for the Sixers to extend that streak noting that they've gone 40-24 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Better still, they're 22-11 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 8.4 points on average in that spot. Off a 120-point explosion in Game 5, I don't see a lot of upside for the Heat offense here. Note that the Sixers have held them to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four games, no small feat after Miami had gotten off 92+ FG attempts in three of its previous four contests prior to that stretch. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out on Tuesday. Philadelphia on the other hand, had an awful shooting night in Miami last time out but on a positive note did manage to get off a series-high 85 FG attempts. Note that the Sixers managed to score 99 and 116 points in winning both previous home games in this series despite attempting just 67 and 68 field goals. If they can find a way to get that pace up a bit again here, I'm confident they can hang a crooked number on the Heat. Take Philadelphia (9*). |
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05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a very low-scoring Game 4 between these two teams as Golden State prevailed by a 101-98 score (we won with the Grizzlies plus the points). I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Memphis for Game 5 - with the Grizz facing elimination. Note that Memphis has now been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in six straight games, its longest such streak of the entire season (previous was five). I do think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies break out of their funk here, even without Ja Morant. Note that Memphis has had no shortage of scoring opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91, 92 and 96 field goal attempts. The shots quite simply haven't been falling. Here, however, I expect to see the Warriors suffer a bit of a letdown defensively as they know this series is all but wrapped up (especially with Ja Morant all but ruled out for the playoffs). Note that the Grizzlies have posted impressive offensive numbers all season at home, averaging 44-of-94 shooting and they're certainly accustomed to playing without Ja Morant as he's missed a considerable amount of time due to injury. Of course, the Warriors have had their way with the Grizzlies defense in this series. They made good on just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in Game 4 but are just one game removed from knocking down 53 field goals in a 142-point outburst in Game 3. In the first two games here in Memphis they got off 93 and 95 FG attempts, hitting 40 or more of them in both contests. While two of the last three games in this series have stayed 'under' the total, I believe too much of an adjustment has been made here. Consider the last matchup here in Memphis - Game 2 of this series - saw a closing total of 227.5. You would have to go all the way back to April 2nd and 3rd to find the last time the Warriors saw consecutive games stay 'under' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points first half over Dallas at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks did an excellent job of getting back in this series, securing consecutive wins on their home floor to tie things up at two heading back to Phoenix. Now it's the Suns turn to respond and I expect them to get off to a strong start in Game 5 on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on the road off consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. The Suns meanwhile have gone 10-1 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 10.7 points on average in that spot. It's not that Phoenix shot all that poorly in the last two games in Dallas, but it's outside shooting certainly let it down in Sunday's Game 4 as it made good on just nine three-point attempts. I'm convinced we'll see the Suns get off to at least a better start in this one (we won't worry about the Mavs potentially making the appropriate halftime adjustments by sticking with the first half only), noting that they were in a similar situation returning home tied at two games apiece against New Orleans last round and ended up jumping ahead 59-46 at halftime in Game 5. Take Phoenix first half (10*). |
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. After getting crushed by 20 points in Game 3 in Philadelphia, the Heat played much better in Game 4 but simply couldn't withstand a shooting clinic from the 76ers as they knocked down over 54% of their field goal attempts in an eight-point victory. With the scene shifting back to Miami for Game 5 on Tuesday, I look for the Heat to regain their footing. Note that the Sixers actually got off just 67 and 68 field goal attempts in the two games in Philadelphia. They've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in all 10 playoff games to date. With so few opportunities and considering the Heat have held opponents to just 37-of-83 shooting here at home this season, I believe the Sixers will be in tough trying to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that the Heat, while slowed in Philadelphia, have shown they can push the pace, getting off 92+ FG attempts in three of their last seven contests. While the Sixers have knocked down 40+ field goals just once in their last nine games the Heat have accomplished that feat four times in their last seven and 10 of their last 13 contests overall. On the flip side you would have to go back seven games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by 6.8 points on average. Perhaps better still, Miami has outscored opponents by 11.1 points on average when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season (12-game sample size). Take Miami (10*). |
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05-09-22 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. Everyone has all but written off the Grizzlies following Saturday's 144-114 drubbing - a game in which they also lost Ja Morant to an injury (he's doubtful to play on Monday). While I have no false illusions when it comes to the Grizz potentially winning this series, I do believe they can bounce back with a much stronger performance on Monday and ultimately take this one down to the wire. Even if Morant can't go, Memphis will have Dillon Brooks back on the floor following his one-game suspension. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies know how to play without Ja as he has missed plenty of time due to injury over the last couple of seasons. I like the fact that Memphis continues to find its opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91 and 92 field goal attempts in the first three games. Golden State quite simply shot the lights out on Saturday, knocking down a ridiculous 63.1% of its field goal attempts. It happens when we're talking about a team led by the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Memphis has proven to be a terrific 'bounce-back' team all season though, going a perfect 10-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 15.9 points on average in that situation. When seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, the Grizzlies have gone 21-10 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.8 points. Take Memphis (10*). |
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05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While we didn't get the result we wanted, missing with the 'over', the pace was absolutely there in Game 3 of this series on Saturday with both teams setting series-highs in terms of field goal attempts (Milwaukee had 99 and Boston 87). That was precisely what we were projecting noting how fast-paced and high scoring the two regular season meetings were here in Milwaukee. I expect more of the same on Monday, but this time I look for both teams to do a much better job of making good on their scoring opportunities. Boston in particular has struggled shooting the ball so far in this series, knocking down 28, 38 and 32 field goals through the first three games. Keep in mind, the Celtics average 41 made field goals per contest on the road this season and knocked down 42 in both road games last round. For its part, Milwaukee also averages 41 made field goals per game at home this season and has connected on 43, 49 and 40 field goals in three previous home matchups with Boston. Here, we'll note that despite Saturday's 'under' result, the 'over' remains 33-21 with the Celtics playing in an 'underdog' role over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 225.1 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-08-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix over Dallas at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The Mavericks showed up defensively in Game 3 of this series and delivered a much-needed 103-94 win. Phoenix only managed to get off 76 field goal attempts in that contest yet was still reasonably competitive. Compare that with Dallas, which got off 90 FG attempts but still only made good on 40 of those, noting the Mavs have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. In stark contrast, prior to Friday's game the Suns had made good on 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. Here, I look for the Suns to make the necessary adjustments and take a strange-hold on this series, noting that they're an incredible 16-3 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.4 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (7*). |
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05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies have taken the cash in each of the first two games in this series and we won with them in Game 2. I think they'll be hard-pressed to cover in a third straight contest on Saturday, however, as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 3. You can be sure Ja Morant's 'you can't guard me' proclamation hasn't sat well with Steph Curry and the rest of the Warriors. Golden State will be out to make an example of Morant and the Grizz on Saturday and I'm confident we'll see them do just that. While the Warriors will be without Gary Payton II, the Grizzlies will miss Dillon Brooks as he serves his one-game suspension for the hard foul on Payton in Game 2. Brooks' absence is arguably more critical. Here, we'll note that Golden State has gone 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by a convincing 11.2 points on average in that spot. This series will likely still feature plenty of twists and turns but I believe Saturday's outcome will be fairly straight-forward. Take Golden State (6*). |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 212.5 | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel the total is moving in the wrong direction here, based solely on the low-scoring outcomes we saw in Games 1 and 2. The pace was actually there for an 'over' result in Game 1 but neither team shot the ball well - the Celtics in particular. The second game saw the Bucks struggle shooting the ball with Boston 'managing' the game from start to finish. Here in Game 3, I look for a different story to unfold. While the Celtics are a terrific defensive team, let's not lose sight of the fact that the Bucks, prior to Game 2, had little trouble finding their opportunities offensively against the C's this season. In five previous matchups they got off 90+ field goal attempts each and every time. I do think we'll see the Celtics hold up their end of the bargain here in Game 3 as well though, noting that the Bucks have allowed opponents to knock down an average of 41-of-91 field goal attempts here at home this season. The previous two meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee this season reached 230 and 248 points. Take the over (7*). |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs OVER 219 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Phoenix and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. At some point in this series, I do expect both the Suns and Mavs to flip the switch and limit the scoring with tough defensive play that we know they're both capable of. I'm just not convinced it happens in the early stages of Game 3 on Friday. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. They've taken it to another level over their last three games, making good on 45, 46 and 49 field goals. We've certainly seen hot starts from them as well, scoring 51+ points in nine of their last 10 games overall, despite missing Devin Booker for a few of those. Scoring hasn't really been a big issue for the Mavs in this series. They've put up 114 and 109 points despite being limited to 85 and 79 field goal attempts through the first two games. Note that the Suns do allow 40 made field goals per contest away from home this season. We can certainly expect Dallas to force the issue early in this contest as it looks to finally put Phoenix back on its heels and ultimately get back in this series. Here, we'll note that the first half 'over' has gone 40-20 with the Mavs coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average first half total of 115.6 points. Take the first half over (10*). |
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05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series proved to be relatively low-scoring with the Heat rolling to a 106-92 victory. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Miami's last four games but the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. Note that the Heat have gotten off 92+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games. The only contest where they didn't reach that number was Game 5 against Atlanta, a game that Jimmy Butler missed due to injury. With Philadelphia sagging defensively, yielding its opponents' at least 86 field goal attempts in five of its last six games (it allows just 84 FG attempts per game on the season), I look for Miami's offense to continue to surge here in Game 2. The question becomes whether the Joel Embiid-less 76ers can hold up their end of the bargain and help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. I believe they can. Note that Philadelphia still got to 92 points despite making good on just 34 field goals including just six made three-pointers in Game 1 of this series. The Sixers hoisted up just 79 FG attempts in the loss. I certainly anticipate them finding more scoring opportunities here, noting that Miami has allowed 45, 42, 45, 41, 41 and 31 made field goals (it allowed 94 points in the outlier - Game 5 against Atlanta last round) in its last six games following a win. While Joel Embiid's absence has to be considered, it is worth noting that the 76ers have averaged 115.7 points per game when coming off a game in which they scored 95 points or less over the last two seasons (15-game sample size). Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. Most already have the Warriors advancing past the Grizzlies in this series, especially after Memphis came so close but seemed so far in Sunday's Game 1 loss. There were positives for the Grizzlies to take away from that setback, however. They got off 95 field goal attempts. That's notable considering the Warriors allowed more than 87 field goal attempts just once in their opening round series against Denver. They also shot better from beyond the arc and got to the free throw line four more times than Golden State. We know there's still some inconsistency in the Warriors game - perhaps a product of so many key pieces being in and out of the lineup over the course of the season. Memphis knows it can hang with Golden State and a one-point loss in the series opener won't do anything to change that. The Grizzlies have still won three of five meetings between these two teams this season. They know, however, that Game 2 is essentially a 'must-win' as they're unlikely to take three of four games in San Francisco, where the Warriors are 34-10 SU this season. Take Memphis (5*). |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics didn't bring their 'A' game in the opener of this series or anything close to it. They managed to knock down just 28 field goals yet still lost by 'only' 12 points. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as they were coming off a five-day layoff thanks to their opening round sweep of the Nets. Here, we'll confidently back the C's noting they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS after being held to 95 points or less in their previous game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.6 points in that spot. The Bucks on the other hand are a woeful 18-30 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Milwaukee has now reeled off four consecutive wins both SU and ATS but streaks like that are uncommon in the postseason and I look for it to grind to a halt here as the Celtics win this one going away to get back in the series. Take Boston (9*). |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 86-109 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Second Round First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Milwaukee and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We nailed our only first half total in the opening round of the playoffs. That play was on the 'over' in the first half of Game 1 between the Nets and Celtics. In my analysis of that play I noted that the Celtics have had a tendency to get involved in high-scoring first halves in playoff action but the scoring hasn't always been sustainable. We saw a glimpse of that in Game 1 of this series as the two teams scored 102 points in the first half before just 89 points were scored in the second half. Here, I'm anticipating an even higher-scoring opening half as the Celtics shake off the rust after a dismal shooting effort in Game 1. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as Boston was playing following a five-day layoff thanks to its opening round sweep of the Nets. Milwaukee was also playing on extended rest, but just three days. I simply don't feel we saw either team's best punch from an offensive standpoint. Here, I look for the Celtics to force the issue offensively in the opening half, but the defending champion Bucks are unlikely to back down early on, leading to plenty of points in the game's first 24 minutes. Take the first half over (10*). |
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05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 214.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Monday. The Mavs were involved in an incredibly low-scoring playoff series against the Jazz in the opening round (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a much different series to play out as they face the high-flying Suns in round two. Phoenix is in fine form offensively, even with Devin Booker in and out of the lineup. They enter Game 1 of this series having made good on 42+ field goals in nine consecutive games. That's despite the fact that they've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. I do anticipate the pace picking up a bit in this particular series, as the Mavs know they won't simply be able to slug it out and prevail the way they did against the struggling Jazz. Dallas entered the playoffs on an offensive tear, having knocked down 45, 42 and 46 field goals over its final three regular season games. Of course, an injury to Luka Doncic derailed its offense in the early stages of the series against Utah but the Mavs were able to rally and ultimately brush aside the discombobulated Jazz without too much stress. It's worth noting that Dallas got off 92 and 90 field goal attempts in its two regular season matchups with the Suns here in Phoenix. It didn't take full advantage, however, and the Suns won both of those games, knocking down 41 and 44 field goals in the process. As good as the Mavs can be defensively, I don't see them slowing a Suns offense that averages 44 made field goals and north of 115 points per game at home this season. The Mavs haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production on the road compared to at home this season (of note, their highest-scoring game of the opening round came in Game 3 in Utah when they scored 126 points). As I mentioned, I expect the pace to tick up a shade in this series, particularly here in Phoenix where the Suns have allowed opponents to get off 89 field goal attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 220.5 | 117-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Memphis at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. Considering the pace the series was played at, I would have projected more than one 'under' result between the Warriors and Nuggets last round. That 'under' result finally came in the series finale - a game that totalled just 200 points. Golden State has now gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. On the flip side, the Warriors are locked-in defensively, having limited six of their last nine opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, going back to March 30th, Golden State has given up 40 or fewer made field goals in eight of 11 contests. The Grlzzlies knocked down more than 40 field goals just twice in their six-game series against the T'Wolves last round. The playoffs are obviously a different animal than the regular season and Memphis found that out as it got off 87 or fewer FG attempts in four of its six first round contests (it averages 94 FG attempts per game this season). However, the Grizzlies are also on a terrific defensive run right now, having held the T'Wolves to 38 or fewer made field goals in each of the last five games last round. Nine of Memphis' last 13 opponents have gotten off 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (9*). |
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04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7 pm et on Thursday. While we have seen the total drop throughout this series, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made - even after four consecutive 'under' results. The 76ers have gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four contests, making good on 38 or less in all four of those games. Meanwhile, the Raptors posted a high-water mark with 42 made field goals in Game 5, but still scored just 103 points. Prior to that, the Raps had knocked down 38, 38 and 38 field goals over their last three games. Neither team has managed to get off 90+ field goal attempts in any game in this series and I don't see that changing with the stakes incredibly high on Thursday night in Toronto. Keep in mind, the Raptors have held opponents to 38-of-83 shooting on average here at home this season. Likewise, the 76ers have limited the opposition to fewer than 40 made field goals per contest away from home and average just 84 FG attempts per game themselves in enemy territory. Take the under (8*). |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Golden State at 10 pm et on Wednesday. All four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. The fact that Game 4 sailed 'over' the number by 20+ points has us working with a considerably higher total here. I believe it will prove too high. It's not as if the pace has really been there for such consistently high-scoring results in this series. In Game 4 for example, the Nuggets got off just 73 field goal attempts. That didn't matter though as they shot the lights out (56% from the field). In Game 3 the Warriors attempted just 74 field goals but they were also incredibly efficient, shooting 55% from the field. Here, I expect both teams to finally step up and play some defense as the Warriors look to close out the series while the Nuggets try to get proceedings back to Denver. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-9 with the Warriors playing at home in their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 219.3 points. The 'under' is also 65-46 with the Warriors coming off a loss over the last three seasons, with an average total of 220.1 points in that situation. Also note that Nuggets road games have been considerably lower scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of just 219.7 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. |
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04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 219.5 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday. That game totalled 212 points which was actually a fairly flattering number given the two teams combined to make just 26 free throws (they average a combined 35 made free throws per game this season) and Brooklyn was held to fewer than 40 made field goals for the second straight contest. Note that two straight games knocking down less than 40 field goals matches the Nets longest such streak this season. It has happened four times previously, with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 in their next game. I expect a similar outcome here. Brooklyn has been held to 78 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games in this series. If the Nets are finally going to be able to push the pace you figure it happens here as they face elimination and perhaps the Celtics let their guard down defensively just enough with a comfortable 3-0 series lead. Note that the Nets got off 99 and 94 field goal attempts in their two regular season matchups against the Celtics on this floor. There's little reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Celtics offense here. They're on an incredible run at that end of the floor, making good on 45, 56, 43, 43, 54, 42, 39 and 42 made field goals over their last eight games. In the lone outlier - Game 2 of this series - they still managed to score 114 points in a game that would have eclipsed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 225 | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Thursday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday. We're actually dealing with the highest posted total of the series so far after the first three games all found their way 'over' the total. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in Game 3, the pace hasn't necessarily been there to dictate such high-scoring results. The same held true in Game 3 but both teams simply shot the lights out. Golden State knocked down 41-of-74 field goal attempts while Denver made good on 40-of-80 of its field goal attempts. Golden State knocked down four more three-pointers than its season average away from home in Game 3, while also getting to the line seven more times than its road average. Facing elimination, I do expect the Nuggets to put forth a more disciplined defensive effort here. Meanwhile, the Warriors lukewarm defensive effort in Game 3 was only a blip during an incredible run. They've held seven of their last nine opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last eight opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 72-47 with the Warriors playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins while the Nuggets have posted a 19-43 o/u record when playing at home after allowing their previous opponent to shoot 55% or better, as is the case here. Take the under (6*). |
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04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 222 | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We haven't touched this series since cashing with the first half 'over' in Game 1 last Sunday. Game 2 ended up being lower-scoring than Game 1, ultimately staying 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a lower total for Game 3 on Saturday. I believe it's the wrong move. Note that the Nets managed to get off just 78 and 76 field goal attempts in the first two games of this series, yet still scored 114 and 107 points. The 107 points in Game 2 matched their lowest scoring output going all the way back to March 3rd. Interestingly, they followed up that 107-point effort on March 3rd with a 120-point performance in a game that totalled 246 points against the Celtics on March 6th. We can anticipate the pace ticking up a bit with the scene shifting to Brooklyn for Game 3. Note that going back to March 27th the Nets have allowed their last seven opponents here at home to get off 98, 100, 89, 99, 84, 102 and 92 field goal attempts. In the two contests where we didn't see their opponents attempt 90+ field goals, we still saw 239 and 225 total points. The Celtics actually made good on just 39 field goals in Game 2 of this series yet still scored 114 points. In each of their previous six contests they had knocked down 42+ field goals and they check in shooting 41-of-88 on average away from home this season. In two regular season matchups here in Brooklyn, the C's made good on 46 and 50 field goals so they're certainly comfortable shooting on this floor. Take the over (8*). |
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04-22-22 | Heat v. Hawks UNDER 222 | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Friday. While Game 2 of this series was higher scoring than Game 1, I don't expect that trend to continue as the scene shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday. Throw away a meaningless regular season finale against Orlando and the Heat are on a tremendous run defensively. Outside of that game against the Magic, they've held their other 16 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts going back to March 11th. They've also held seven of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been on an offensive tear, scoring 111 or more points in seven straight games. I'm not sure it's sustainable, however, noting that they've gotten off 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests - the lone outlier being that aforementioned game against Orlando. The Hawks may be known as a fast-paced team, yet they've actually held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts, permitting just 81, 82 and 79 over their last three games. That's not to mention the fact they've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. This will be the seventh meeting between these teams since January. As I like to say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball and just once in the previous six meetings have we seen either team reach 90 FG attempts (that game still totalled just 206 points). Take the under (9*). |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday. The first two games of this series have both gone 'over' the total, even though the pace hasn't necessarily been there. The Warriors shot the lights out in those two games, knocking down 43 and 46 field goals despite being held to just 82 and 84 field goal attempts. That's nothing out of the ordinary as Golden State has actually gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 13 games overall. In terms of the Warriors red hot shooting, we have a catalyst for change at play here as the scene shifts to Denver for Game 3 on Thursday. While the Warriors have been terrific offensively in this series, it's their defense that is absolutely locked in right now, and has been for weeks. They've held six of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. We've seen them make a concerted effort to frustrate the opposition and slow the pace away from home, limiting 14 of their last 16 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. For the season, they've held opponents to an average of 39-of-86 shooting on the road. For the Nuggets, they obviously need to step up defensively in an 0-2 hole in this series. They've actually held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts with the only exception coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the Lakers. Remember, we saw a matchup between these two teams total just 175 points - a game the Nuggets won - earlier this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 21-10 with the Warriors coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. In the long-term picture we've seen the 'under' cash at a 72-46 clip with Golden State playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 224.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The first game of this series was extremely low-scoring, totalling just 179 points. As a result, we're working with a considerably lower posted total for Game 2. I believe it will prove too low. Note that the Bulls did get off 96 field goal attempts in Game 1. They simply weren't able to make good on their opportunities, knocking down just 31 of them. Note that they had previous made good on 42+ field goals in five of their last eight contests. Here, we'll note that Chicago has posted a 13-3 o/u record after scoring 100 points or less in its previous game this season. The Bucks have now yielded their opponents' 90+ field goal attempts in 13 of their last 16 games overall. So again, the opportunities will likely be there for the Bulls on Wednesday - it will be up to them to take advantage. Here, we'll note that the Bucks have allowed 113.1 points per game when playing at home off a win this season (compared to their season scoring average allowed at home of 110.5 points per game), resulting in an average total of 228.2 points. The Bulls are not a good defensive team. The Bucks simply had an off shooting night in Game 1, hitting just 34-of-84 field goal attempts. We'll chalk that poor performance up to rust as they hadn't played in a week. Prior to that contest (and their meaningless regular season finale in Cleveland), the Bucks had knocked down 50, 42, 46, 49 and 50 field goals in their last five games. Leading into this series, Chicago had allowed 45, 44, 46, 43, 52 and 46 made field goals over its last six contests, yielding 117+ points in each of those games. The Bulls haven't seen consecutive games go 'under' the total since a three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 29th. Milwaukee last posted consecutive 'under' results during a three-game 'under' streak from March 22nd to 26th. Expect a much different story to unfold than we saw in the series opener. Take the over (10*). |
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04-19-22 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Suns | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Few are giving the Pelicans any chance of winning this series. While I tend to agree, I do expect them to give the Suns all they can handle in Game 2 on Tuesday night. Everything went right for Phoenix in Game 1. It shot the lights out (just shy of 54% from the field). Interestingly, however, New Orleans actually got plenty of looks, hoisting up 95 field goal attempts. It got to the free throw line five more times than Phoenix. In other words, there's reason for optimism entering Game 2. The Pelicans quite simply didn't make their shots in Game 1. Keep in mind, this is a team that had made good on 40+ field goals in 23 of their last 24 games entering this series. Also note that the Pelicans have limited three of their last seven opponents to 78 or fewer FG attempts, including the Suns in Game 1 (they attempted 78 field goals). Here, we'll note that New Orleans is 36-24 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.5 points on average in that situation. The Suns have outscored opponents by only 4.1 points on average when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons (40-game sample size), as is the case here. While the Pelicans haven't been a great road team this season going 18-25 SU (one of those wins came here in Phoenix), they've only been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points. I'm expecting a competitive affair on Tuesday. Take New Orleans (9*). |
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04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors rode the emotional wave of Steph Curry's return to an easy 16-point win in Saturday's series-opener. Golden State was ahead by 20 points entering the fourth quarter in that contest as the Nuggets simply didn't bring enough intensity to stay competitive. I do expect a strong response from Denver on Monday, noting that it has already won twice in San Francisco this season. Here, we'll note that the Nuggets check in 17-7 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 14-4 ATS when on the road seeking to avenge consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.0 point in that spot. Interestingly, the Warriors have only gotten off 81, 81 and 82 field goal attempts over their last three games. In fact, they've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight games overall. Denver on the other hand, has hoisted up 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four games. That while holding three of its last four opponents to fewer than 90 attempts from the field. I'm expecting a more competitive affair than we saw on Saturday as the Nuggets look to even up the series before heading back to Denver. Take Denver (6*). |
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04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Utah at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Luka-less Mavericks battled hard but ultimately fell by six points in the opener of this series on Saturday. While most have written the Mavs off as long as Luka is unable to return (it doesn't look like he'll play on Monday), I'm confident they can get back at the Jazz in what is essentially a 'must-win' game on Monday. For the third straight game, we saw Utah held to 37 or fewer made field goals on Saturday. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in that game, the Mavs certainly lose a ton offensively with Luka Doncic sidelined, but that's not the case at the defensive end of the floor. Dallas can be an elite defensive team at times and we've certainly seen that lately as it has held three of its last four opponents to 36 or fewer made field goals. Also note that four of the Mavs last seven opponents have only managed to get off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. I certainly don't expect anything to come easy for the Jazz offensively on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Utah attempted more than 88 field goals. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 16-3 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season, outscoring opponents by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The Jazz are a woeful 10-21 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games this season, as is the case here. They've been anything but reliable away from home, going 18-24 ATS including 4-12 ATS over their last 16 contests in enemy territory. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-17-22 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
NBA First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Brooklyn and Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect this series to get off to a high-scoring start on Sunday afternoon in Boston as the Nets and Celtics match up for the fifth time this season. We saw the Nets offense get in gear down the stretch, making good on 41+ field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their last four contests they knocked down 41, 43, 52 and 45 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to March 3rd to find the last time they didn't score 110+ points in a game. An issue, however, has been their loose play defensively. In their last two games they allowed the Pacers and Cavs to get off 104 and 92 field goal attempts. Seven of their last nine opponents made good on 40+ field goals. The Celtics are certainly well-positioned to take advantage. They've knocked down 43+ field goals in five straight games, eclipsing the 50 field goal mark in two of those contests. While you could argue their last couple of games didn't really matter, the C's did yield 97 and 102 field goal attempts to the opposition and I expect to see the Nets force the issue early in this one. We'll play the first half only as I have noticed a trend in Celtics playoff games where the defense picks up and the pace slows as the game progresses. Early on, I look for both sides to find plenty of scoring success here. Take the first half over (10*). |
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04-16-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 209.5 | 99-93 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 1 pm et on Saturday. I don't think Luka Doncic's absence can be over-exaggerated in this game. He obviously adds so much to the Mavs offense but is by no means a defensive stopper. Dallas' path to staying competitive in this game comes by slowing things down and ultimately limiting Utah's scoring opportunities, something it has proven to be able to do, particularly here at home this season. Note that the Mavs have yielded opponents just 38-of-85 shooting on average at home. Down the stretch we saw them allow fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last 10 games. However, without Luka you do have to wonder where their offense will come from. Note that Dallas only managed to get off 78, 76, 80, 79 and 85 FG attempts over its last five regular season games and that was with Luka in the lineup the majority of the time. The Jazz have been incredibly stingy defensively, holding eight of their last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. While their offense can be explosive at times, that certainly wasn't the case all season long, noting that they made good on 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last five games. In fact, they average just 86 FG attempts per game on the road this season with the 'under' going 22-18-1. The last meeting between these two teams on March 27th got to 214 total points but that was thanks only to the Mavs shooting the lights out. The pace of that game certainly didn't dictate an 'over' result with Utah attempting 89 field goals and Dallas getting off just 77. Take the under (6*). |
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04-15-22 | Hawks v. Cavs OVER 225 | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Hawks rout of the Hornets two nights ago but it wasn't by much and here we're dealing with a considerably lower total as Atlanta heads to Cleveland to decide who moves onto the first round of the NBA Playoffs. I believe the total will prove too low. I'm not convinced that Wednesday's 'under' result had more to do with the Hawks superb defense than lousy shooting from the Hornets. Atlanta actually yielded 90 field goal attempts in that contest but Charlotte could make good on only 34 of them. That snapped a streak of five straight games in which the Hawks allowed 40+ made field goals - a streak I expect to pick right back up on Friday. The Cavs come in having knocked down 42, 40, 51 and 41 field goals over their last four games. On the flip side, they've allowed 43+ made field goals in three of their last four contests. The lone game in which they didn't give up 40+ we still saw a whopping 248 total points against Milwaukee. I like the fact that both teams have been forcing the issue offensively, with Atlanta hoisting up 92+ FG attempts in three of its last five games and Cleveland getting off 94 and 92 FG attempts in its last two contests. Three of four regular season meetings between these two teams totalled at least 238 points with both teams attempting 90+ field goals in their most recent matchup on March 31st. Take the over (8*). |
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04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 237 | Top | 103-132 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 26 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This is the highest posted total of the play-in round and it's that high for a reason. The Hornets enter this showdown arguably playing their best offensive basketball of the season, having scored 128, 133 and 124 points over their last three games. They've made good on 40+ field goals in an incredible 15 straight games. Over their last four contests they've knocked down 45, 48, 52 and 48 field goals. While I'm not projecting a break-neck pace to this game, I'm confident both sides can make good on their opportunities. Note that the Hornets have yielded their opponents 40+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games. Two of their last three foes managed to get off 94 or more field goal attempts. The Hawks are certainly capable of taking advantage, having knocked down 43, 43, 42 and 45 field goals over their last four games. In fact, they've made good on 42+ field goals in eight of their last nine contests. However, like the Hornets the Hawks have also been generous defensively, giving up 40+ made field goals in five straight and 20 of their last 21 games overall. The last meeting between these two teams totalled just 222 points back on March 16th and that's contributing to a lower posted total here than we saw on that night. The two teams combined to hit below their average in three-point field goals and free throws in that contest. I believe this game is being projected by oddsmakers to have a pace in the high-80's as far as FG attempts go. Even at that pace I believe the two teams can get 'over' the total but if it ticks up at all, I think we see this game sail well north of the number. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-22 | Clippers +3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Clippers as they look to book a trip to Memphis for a first round playoff series against the Grizzlies. They'll need to get past the upstart T'Wolves first. Minnesota enters this showdown playing little to no defense at all, having allowed its last seven opponents to make good on 49, 48, 46, 48, 56, 43 and 44 field goals. It has incredibly held only two opponents to fewer than 102 points going all the way back to January 18th. Contrast that with the Clippers, who enter this game having held their last two opponents to 98 points or less. While the T'Wolves do boast an exceptional offense, the Clippers have been every bit as good lately. Los Angeles checks in having knocked down 41, 45, 56, 45, 33, 42 and 54 field goals over its last seven games. It shot 54-of-97 from the field in Sunday's regular season finale against Oklahoma City despite sitting Paul George, Reggie Jackson and others. What I like about the Clippers, in addition to the fact that they're well-coached (Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA today in my opinion), is that they play some defense. They've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips took three of four regular season meetings between these two teams, including both here in Minnesota. The lone loss came in early January when they were in a bit of a swoon and you could understand them letting down their guard having won the previous three meetings at the time - all by double-digit margins. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-10-22 | Kings v. Suns -14 | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. I like the way the Suns have been forcing the issue down the stretch, regardless who is in or out of the lineup, getting off 92+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games and scoring 121, 109 and 111 points in the process, winning two of those three games. Here, they should find continued success against a Kings squad that waved the white flag a long time ago and checks in having allowed 41+ made field goals in 11 consecutive games, while making good on fewer than 40 field goals themselves in six of their last 10 contests. Sacramento has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up just 81, 81, 76 and 86 field goal attempts over its last four contests. Phoenix meanwhile has knocked down 50, 42 and 46 field goals over its last three games and has made good on 42, 44 and 46 field goals in its previous three meetings with Sacramento this season. Defensively, we've seen the Suns clamp down lately, yielding opponents' fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They're just one game removed from limiting the Clippers to 33-of-75 shooting. Take Phoenix (6*). |
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04-10-22 | Spurs v. Mavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 120-130 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Dallas at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' (by 25+ points) in the Spurs 100-94 loss to the Warriors last night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they wrap up the regular season in Dallas on Sunday. Note that we also won with the 'under' in the Mavs most recent game, despite the fact that they put up 128 points against the Blazers. Here, we'll note that the Spurs have been playing much better defense lately, holding nine of their last 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. While they haven't always been able to control their opponents' tempo, they did limit the Warriors to just 81 field goal attempts last night. The Mavs don't figure to push the pace all that much here. While they did put up a ridiculous number of points last time out, they actually attempted just 79 field goals. They've hoisted up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games, getting off 90 or fewer attempts in an incredible 29 straight games. Of course that doesn't always assure us of a low-scoring result as Dallas is capable of shooting the lights out. However, here on the final night of the regular season, I'm not sure we'll see it. Defensively, the Mavs are locked-in right now, holding their last two opponents to 35 or fewer made field goals on 83 or less FG attempts. The Spurs, missing both Jakob Poeltl and DeJounte Murray - two of their best scoring options - have attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six straight games - a stark contrast to what we were seeing earlier in the season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-22 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 225.5 | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Raptors enter this game off consecutive 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Toronto has held four of its last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts and figures to have a good chance to keep that going against a Knicks squad that has gotten off 90 or fewer FG attempts in 15 of its last 16 games. New York has seen the 'under' cash in each of its last four contests and most recently limited the Wizards to just 69 FG attempts in a 114-92 win in Washington. Over their last three contests, the Knicks have yielded just 30, 41 and 35 made field goals. Brooklyn was the one opponent that knocked down 40+ field goals against them and that game still stayed well 'under' the total (we won with the 'under' in that game earlier this week). The Raptors are certainly rolling along offensively, but that's had a lot to do with getting off so many FG attempts. They've attempted 91+ field goals in three straight games - a pace I'm not sure we'll see them employ against a stingy Knicks defense here. The most recent meeting between these two teams did total 225 points but that game saw a whopping 48 made free throws, noting that the two teams average just 34 made free throws per game this season. Their two previous matchups both stayed well below the total we're working with here. Take the under (8*). |
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04-09-22 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 221.5 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last time out. However, in the bigger picture, both have been trending to the 'under' in recent weeks. Few teams are as locked-in as the Warriors are defensively right now. They've held their last four opponents to 38, 38, 31 and 37 made field goals. In fact, they've held 11 of their last 15 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. They've also done a nice job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding just 81 and 83 field goal attempts over their last two games and fewer than 90 in seven of their last nine contests. We've actually seen the Spurs turn things around defensively as well, giving up 41 or fewer made field goals in four consecutive games. Opponents are still pushing the pace against them, but I'm not sure we'll see that from the Warriors here, noting that they'll be resting Klay Thompson and also have their regular season finale tomorrow in New Orleans so we can certainly expect some 'game management'. Offensively, you would have to go back six games to find the last time San Antonio got off 90+ FG attempts. While it has continued to shoot well, I question whether it will continue given how the Warriors have been playing, not to mention the fact the Spurs are without two of their top scoring options (among others) in DeJounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. The last meeting between these two teams in March totalled 218 points and I would argue that game was played at a faster pace than we'll see tonight, with both teams performing similarly offensively to what we can expect here, lending itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |
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04-08-22 | Blazers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 78-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse offensive basketball than the Blazers as we head into the final weekend of the regular season. Missing so many key contributors following a pre-trade deadline fire sale and then a number of injuries, they're limping to the finish line. Note that Portland has scored 94 points or less in three straight games, struggling to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting only 84, 83 and a woeful 69 field goals over its last three contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three straight and seven of the Blazers last nine games overall. On a positive note, they have held 10 of their last 13 opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They had allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games prior to last night's 127-94 loss in New Orleans (the Pelicans knocked down 44-of-93 FG attempts in that game). The Mavs have of course been lights out offensively of late. The 'over' has cashed in each of their last six games even though the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. They've attempted 80 or fewer field goals in each of their last three contests. Dallas has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in seven of its last 11 games overall. On the flip side, the Mavs held the Pistons to just 35-of-82 shooting in their most recent contest and I believe that offers some foreshadowing as to what we're likely going to see against the down-trodden Blazers on Friday. This is a game the Mavs will undoubtedly be looking to 'manage' as nearly a 20-point favorite playing their sixth game in the last 11 nights (in five different cities). Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-22 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 227 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Magic have essentially thrown in the towel defensively, allowing 42+ made field goals in three of their last four games with 12 of their last 18 opponents getting off 90+ field goal attempts. However, as we saw two nights ago in an underdog role against the Cavs, they're still capable of rising up and playing the role of spoiler, scoring 120 points on 47-of-93 shooting despite missing a number of key contributors in that contest. Here, they'll travel to Charlotte to face a Hornets squad that has acted as a swinging door defensively, allowing 43, 40, 40, 53 and 48 made field goals over their last five games despite only one of those contests being played at a particularly fast pace (their last four opponents have all gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts). Offensively, Charlotte continues to shine. It has knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games, scoring 106 or more points in all 12 of those contests. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. But again, defense is an issue. Each of Charlotte's last 15 opponents have scored 100+ points. Remember, the Magic shot 45-of-87 from the field and scored 116 points in their most recent matchup here in Charlotte back in January. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season but I believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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04-06-22 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 232 | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this total sets up on Wednesday as the Nets play their second game in as many nights, making the short trip to Manhattan to face the Knights. Brooklyn rolled to a 118-105 win over lowly Houston last night. That marked the Nets third consecutive 'under' result and that's a trend I'm willing to bet on continuing here. Brooklyn has now held three straight and eight of its last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Knicks don't figure to challenge that trend as they've made good on fewer than 40 field goals in nine of their last 14 contests. They did bust out in their last game, scoring 118 points on 45-of-93 shooting but that was against a Magic team that has quite simply folded the tent down the stretch, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. New York has tightened the screws defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of its last 10 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip over that stretch. While the Nets have scored 115+ points in four straight games, they're in a bit of a tougher spot here, noting this is the second of back-to-backs and considering the Knicks have yielded opponents 85 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six contests and 90 or less attempts in nine consecutive games. Finally, I'll point out that none of the previous three meetings in this series this season have topped 222 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-22 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 222.5 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams just met last week and combined to score a whopping 265 points in a wild overtime affair in Portland. The two teams combined to knock down 98 field goals including 40 from beyond the arc in that contest. I'm not expecting a repeat performance from either side here. Both teams are simply playing out the string at this point, and have been for quite some time. They're also both dealing with a number of key injuries and absences. The Blazers have been as uneven as it gets offensively of late, not unexpected given the current state of their roster. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in six of their last nine games. On a positive note they have limited the opposition to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games and 85 or less in seven of their last nine overall. Oklahoma City had been pushing the pace a bit when Shae-Gilgeous Alexander was healthy, however, he's now out for the remainder of the season and the Thunder have hoisted up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. There's reason to think they'll be interested in slowing things down here after successfully doing so in a stunning 117-96 win over the Suns as a 14-point underdog last time out - a game in which they allowed just 37-of-89 shooting. Four of the Thunder's last six opponents have knocked down 41 or fewer field goals. Prior to that high-scoring one-off between these two teams last week, the previous two meetings this season totalled just 179 and 189 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas UNDER 152.5 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Kansas at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with our big play on the 'over' in North Carolina's thrilling 81-77 win over Duke in the Final Four on Saturday. Kansas also saw its rout of Villanova sail 'over' the total. I believe both results are setting us up with an inflated total on Monday, keeping in mind both teams entered the Final Four on the heels of consecutive 'under' results. We can't anticipate Kansas to go off from three-point range again on Monday the way it did on Saturday. The Jayhawks made good on 13-of-24 attempts from beyond the arc in that contest but average just 6-of-18 from three-point range away from home this season. We also can't count on North Carolina to get to the free throw line 24 times the way it did against Duke (Kansas yields opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season). The Jayhawks have done a tremendous job defensively, allowing 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games overall with the 'under' cashing in five of those nine games. It's worth noting that this is the highest posted total we've seen in any of Kansas' last 10 contests, by a considerable margin (the next highest was 145.5). While both teams are certainly capable of 'filling it up' the fact is neither has topped 29 made field goals in any of their last four games, respectively. In fact, the Tar Heels have knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in regulation time in four consecutive games. Kansas has made good on 29 field goals in consecutive games after being held to just 27 and 22 against Creighton and Providence. Take the under (8*). |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over North Carolina at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We've been on the sidelines for Kansas' tournament run but I'll step in confidently and back the Jayhawks here as they clash with North Carolina in the National Title Game on Monday night. North Carolina has afforded its opponents far too many scoring opportunities for my liking. Even in its thrilling win over Duke on Saturday, it yielded a whopping 72 field goal attempts. Over their last five contests, the Tar Heels have allowed 73, 81 (aided by overtime against Baylor), 62, 60 and 72 FG attempts. While they've done a nice job defensively as a whole, they've still allowed 25, 26, 28, 28, 18 and 30 made field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch was a game against an overmatched St. Peter's squad in the Elite Eight. In stark contrast, Kansas has allowed its last five opponents to knock down just 19, 21, 23, 19 and 22 field goals. Again, some of that has to do with the opposition simply not making their shots. However, Kansas has been doing it all season, allowing just 25 made field goals including only six from beyond the arc per game on average away from home. What I really like about the Jayhawks is the way they've tightened the screws defensively lately, giving up fewer than 60 FG attempt in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests overall. On the flip side, the Jayhawks have made good on 33, 30, 22, 34, 27, 22. 29 and 29 field goals over their last eight games - you get the picture, they've been ultra-consistent. The two outliers (22 made field goals) came in relatively low-scoring affairs against Texas Tech and Providence, two excellent teams in their own right. They still won both of those games by five or more points. North Carolina has actually knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in five of its last seven games. It has had plenty of success getting to the free throw line but faces a Kansas squad that affords its opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season. While we can't project the Jayhawks to go off from beyond the arc the way they did against Villanova in the Final Four, we also can't expect North Carolina to get off 64 FG attempts or get to the line 24 times the way it did against Duke on Saturday. Take Kansas (10*). |
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04-03-22 | Wolves v. Rockets +12.5 | 139-132 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is simply too many points for the T'Wolves to be laying given how poorly they've been playing defensively. Minnesota checks in having yielded 49, 48 and 46 made field goals over its last three games but is coming off a 106-100 win as a three-point underdog in Denver two nights ago. It's not as if the Wolves have been unstoppable offensively lately either, knocking down 43 or fewer field goals in five of their last six contests. The Rockets, meanwhile, have gone winless through the first three games on their current four-game homestand. With that being said, those three previous losses have come by just 3, 3 and 5 points. Despite playing at a fast pace, six of Houston's last seven opponents have made good on 44 or fewer field goals. We've seen the Rockets start pushing the pace again over their last couple of games, getting off 94 and 97 field goal attempts against the Kings. They should be afforded a similar number of opportunities here with Minnesota having yielded opponents 90+ FG attempts in five of its last nine contests. The T'Wolves 'only' won by 18 points in the most recent meeting between these two teams despite shooting a ridiculous 55-of-108 from the field. Take Houston (8*). |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke OVER 151 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. This will be the third meeting between these rivals this season with the previous two both sailing 'over' the total we're working with on Saturday. Given the way both teams have played leading up to and in this tournament, barring one of both sides going ice cold shooting the ball, I see no other way to go but the 'over' again here in their much-anticipated Final Four showdown. We missed with the 'over' in the Tar Heels most recent game - a 69-49 rout of an overmatched St. Peter's squad last Sunday. The Peacocks actually got off 60 field goal attempts in that game but knocked down only 18 of them in the blowout loss. North Carolina has now yielded its opponents 73, 81 (OT game against Baylor), 62 and 60 FG attempts in four games in this tournament. Prior to its Elite Eight matchup, UNC had allowed 25+ made field goals in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the Tar Heels have made good on 25+ field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While not all of their recent opponents have shot well, the Blue Devils have essentially been a 'swinging door' defensively, allowing 62+ field goal attempts in eight consecutive games. Seven of their last eight opponents have knocked down 26+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-1-1 over that stretch. Of course, from an offensive standpoint, few are doing it better than the Blue Devils right now as they've made good on 30, 32, 28 and 29 field goals in their first four games in this tournament. Duke has scored 78+ points in nine of its last 10 games overall. Its lone 'under' result over that stretch came in a game where its opening round opponents in this tourney, Cal-State Fullerton, shot a woeful 24-of-64 from the field. With UNC allowing 65 field goal attempts per game away from home this season, not to mention eight made threes per contest, I believe the door is open for Duke to set the pace on Saturday. Meanwhile, we haven't seen UNC's best offensively over the last couple of games but we know its capable of keeping up here, noting that it scored a whopping 95 points in a stunning victory in Coach K's final game at Cameron Indoor back on March 5th. Take the over (10*). |
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04-02-22 | Hornets +5.5 v. 76ers | 114-144 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Philadelphia at 12:40 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Hornets in this early matchup on Saturday. Charlotte has quietly won eight of its last 10 games overall. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. They've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 straight games. Simply put, they're rolling right now. Meanwhile, the 76ers continue to scuffle along. They dropped an ugly 102-94 decision in Detroit two nights ago. In stark contrast to the Hornets, the Sixers have been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, their defense has sagged, yielding 45, 44 and 41 made field goals in their last three games. While ordinarily I would assume that Philadelphia could frustrate Charlotte by slowing the pace here, I'm not sure that will be the case noting that the Hornets have actually limited four of their last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take Charlotte (8*). |
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04-01-22 | Blazers v. Spurs OVER 231 | 111-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blazers most recent game - a 117-107 loss at home against New Orleans on Wednesday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as they hit the road to face the Spurs. Note that these two teams just matched up on March 23rd in Portland as San Antonio rolled to a 133-96 win. That game managed to creep 'over' the total despite Portland shooting a woeful 36-of-94 from the field. I do expect some improvement from the revenge-minded Blazers here, noting that they've made good on 43, 37, 51 (OT-aided) and 39 field goals over their last four games. The problem for Portland is its non-existent defense. It has allowed its last five opponents to knock down 46, 43, 44, 48 and 40 field goals, giving up 115+ points in all five contests. The Spurs should certainly be able to take advantage. They've scored 107+ points in five straight games, making good on 47 and 42 field goals over their last two contests. My concern with the Spurs laying all of those points in this spot is that they've allowed opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts in six straight games. With the Blazers finding a bit of confidence offensively over the last couple of games, I do think they can contribute enough to help this one 'over' the total. In the Spurs last five home games they've allowed the opposition to knock down 45, 52, 43, 48 and 44 field goals. Take the over (8*). |
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04-01-22 | Fresno State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 126.5 | 85-74 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Fresno State and Coastal Carolina at 6 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results in the semi-finals of this tournament but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Thursday's final. The pace was actually there for 'over' results in both semi-final contests. Fresno State did its part, knocking down 50% of its field goal attempts to put up 67 points but its opponent, Southern Utah, couldn't hit anything, making good on just 19-of-61 field goal attempts in a 19-point loss. Part of that obviously had to do with Fresno State's defense, but sometimes the shots simply aren't falling as well. The fact that Southern Utah was able to get off 66 attempts encourages me to play the 'over' here as I certainly don't expect Coastal Carolina to shoot as poorly. The Chanticleers check in having made good on 27, 21, 23, 28, 24, 22, 25, 33 and 28 field goals (you get the picture - consistency is what we're looking for) over their last nine games with the 'over' going 5-3-1 over that stretch. Coastal Carolina allowed South Alabama to get off 66 FG attempts in the semis. Five of the Chanticleers last seven opponents have hoisted up 58+ FG attempts with four of those teams scoring at least 68 points. Take the over (8*). |
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03-30-22 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 228 | Top | 117-107 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. C.J. McCollum will make his return to Portland as a member of the Pelicans after being dealt from the Blazers prior to the trade deadline. While the Blazers are going nowhere this season, I do think they get up for this game and we see an up-tempo affair on Wednesday night. We know what we're going to get from New Orleans right now. The Pelicans have scored 102+ points in 20 consecutive games and have made good on 40+ field goals in 15 straight contests. The Blazers don't figure to do much to stand in their way here, noting they've allowed 40+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Albeit aided by overtime, they allowed 48-of-90 shooting and 134 points against an undermanned Thunder squad last time out. Despite a depleted roster, Portland has managed to push the pace a little more than it had been recently over its last couple of games, attempting 93 and 99 field goal attempts in regulation time in those two contests. The Blazers have generally been alternating good and bad offensive efforts lately, but again, I expect them to get up for this one, especially as they look to salvage something from this five-game homestand (they're 0-4 so far). While New Orleans has been limiting its opponents' tempo for the most part, it is also allowing the opposition to shoot for a lofty percentage. Note that four of the Pelicans last five opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-29-22 | Lakers v. Mavs OVER 218 | 110-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers will likely be without Lebron James for this game but I feel the total has been adjusted too low based on the way they've been playing lately. L.A. has actually settled into a bit of a groove offensively, having made good on 47, 48, 53, 50 and 42 field goals over its last five games with the low-water mark coming in a game where it got off just 80 field goal attempts against New Orleans last time out. On the flip side, the Lakers have also gone back to their awful ways defensively, giving up 44+ made field goals in five straight games with five of their last six opponents putting up 120+ points. The Mavs obviously play tough defense at home. I can see them lacking a bit of intensity here, however, as they look ahead to a trip to Cleveland tomorrow and perhaps underestimate the Lebron-less Lakers. While Los Angeles averages just 111.1 points per game on the road this season, that average bumps up to 116.9 points per game when coming off a road loss, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier OVER 142 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 127 h 30 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Bonaventure and Xavier at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Xavier's most recent game - a 75-73 NIT quarter-final victory over Vanderbilt. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Musketeers take on St. Bonaventure in NIT semi-final action on Tuesday. Xavier continues to allow the opposition to get off plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 60, 65, 64, 60, 64 and 59 field goal attempts over its last six games. St. Bonaventure figures to take advantage of those opportunities, noting that it has knocked down 30, 24, 29, 27 and 20 field goals over its last five games with the outlier being a defensive slugfest against one of the slowest-paced and defensively-elite teams in the country in Virginia last time out. The Bonnies have generally done a nice job of limiting their opponents opportunities, allowing fewer than 60 FG attempts in 12 straight games heading into this one. However, they'll have their hands full with Xavier. The Musketeers check in having made good on 35, 33, 24, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five contests, most recently thriving in the second half of their win over Vandy. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Xavier was held to fewer than 72 points. In a game where I expect the pace to tick up a bit, I'm confident both offenses can continue to thrive and this total will quite simply prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State OVER 135.5 | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Third Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Southern Utah and Fresno State at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State has looked like a different team in this tournament, making good on 28 and 27 field goals while scoring 80+ points in both games. Perhaps getting out of the defensive-minded Mountain West Conference was just what the doctor ordered. Here, the Bulldogs draw another vulnerable defensive opponent in Southern Utah. The Jaguars have consistently allowed between 23-28 made field goals per contest over the last month. On the flip side, Southern Utah has been scoring with the best of them, knocking down 27, 28, 25, 28, 32 and 29 field goals over its last six contests. Fresno State played lights out defensive basketball earlier in the season but that hasn't really been the case lately. The Bulldogs have yielded 26, 20, 26 and 23 made field goals over their last four games, despite a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate the Jaguars forcing the issue a little more than Fresno's recent opponents, noting that they've averaged 27-for-61 shooting away from home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-28-22 | Bulls v. Knicks +5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them lately, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals over their last two games. It's not as if those two contests came against elite defensive teams either. The first was against a 'defense-optional' Pelicans squad and the next came against a reeling Cavaliers defense. Here, Chicago will face rival New York, noting that you would have to go back to March 13th against Brooklyn to find the last time the Knicks allowed more than 42 made field goals in a game. The Knicks have actually won three games in a row SU but did lose ATS yesterday in Detroit, which actually works in our favor here with the line creeping up in favor of the Bulls. Note that there's been little to choose between these two teams this season with all three of the previous matchups decided by six points or less. I'll grab the points here. Take New York (8*). |
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03-27-22 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 240 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. I don't expect to see much defense in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday night. The Hornets roll into this game having made good on 52, 49, 43, 44, 40, 42 and 41 field goals over their last seven games. You get the idea. They're scoring fairly consistently right now and won't back down from the challenge at hand in Brooklyn on Sunday, noting that they've already won on this floor this season. More recently these two teams met in Charlotte and they combined to score 253 points on March 8th. The Nets entered last night's game in Miami having knocked down 45+ field goals in all but one of their previous nine games. Counter to that, they've also yielded 92+ FG attempts to opponents in five of their last eight contests. Expect a track meet here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-22 | Wolves v. Celtics OVER 227.5 | 112-134 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Boston at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a hotter offensive team than the Celtics right now. They've made good on 46, 47, 44 and 50 field goals over their last four games, scoring 124+ points in each of those four contests. Keep in mind, the C's are just one game removed from allowing 123 points on 48-of-93 shooting against an undermanned Thunder squad so there's a path for the T'Wolves to stay competitive in an underdog role here. Minnesota has of course been playing well also and checks in having knocked down 52, 40, 47, 36, 42 and 43 field goals over its last six games. The outlier came on the road against Dallas and it's worth noting the Wolves still scored 108 points in that game. We can be quite confident that the Wolves will find their scoring opportunities here, noting that they've gotten off 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six games and also reached that number in their first meeting with Boston this season. The Celtics have been scoring at will despite the fact that they've been held to 88 or fewer FG attempts in six straight games. They're likely to get into the 90's in that department here, noting that Minnesota has yielded 90+ FG attempts to opponents in four of its last six contests. Take the over (8*). |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina OVER 136.5 | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Peter's and North Carolina at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' (barely) in St. Peter's upset win over Purdue on Friday. That game just about got to the posted total but ultimately fell just short, largely due to the pace simply not being there. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. North Carolina continues to push the pace at every opportunity, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Of course, the Tar Heels continue to make the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down 28+ field goals in six of their last eight contests. On the flip side, they're also affording their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, allowing 73, 81 and 62 FG attempts through their first three tournament games. Their last four opponents have made good on 25, 26, 28 and 28 field goals with all four of those opponents scoring at least 63 points. While St. Peter's certainly isn't known for its offense, it has scored 64+ points in five of its last six contests. That's despite playing at a very slow pace. Defensively, the Peacocks are terrific, but we have seen Kentucky and Purdue at least find some success, and they'll undoubtedly have their hands full with a Tar Heels offense that is peaking at the right time. Take the over (9*). |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arkansas in its stunning upset win over number-one seed Gonzaga two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Razorbacks actually made some poor choices shooting the basketball early in the shot clock down the stretch in that win over Gonzaga and ultimately made good on just 29-of-72 field goal attempts but their relentless defense frustrated the Zags all night and I expect more of the same here (but with better shot selection offensively). Duke has been red hot shooting the ball but what happens if those shots suddenly stop falling? Interestingly, it has only gotten off 58, 56 and 54 field goal attempts in its first three tournament games (it averages 60 FG attempts per contest away from home this season). I'm concerned with the Blue Devils inability to control their opponents' tempo, having yielded 64+ FG attempts in each of their last seven games. Even a lukewarm Texas Tech offense was able to make good on 31 field goals on Thursday, even though it wasn't enough to topple the Blue Devils. Going back to March 5th against North Carolina, Duke has now allowed 33, 27, 31, 32, 24, 27 and 31 made field goals over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, only one of the Hogs last seven opponents has managed to knock down more than 26 field goals. Take Arkansas (10*). |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 147.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NCAA Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Thursday's Arkansas-Gonzaga game wasn't a typical one for the Razorbacks. They average 60 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and had gotten off 57 or fewer in four straight games prior to that contest. Yet they ended up hoisting up 72 field goal attempts, making good only only 29 of them, in that stunning upset victory. On the flip side, they also allowed the Zags to get off 64 FG attempts - well north of the 57 FG attempts they yield on average away from home this season. It's not the way Hogs head coach Eric Musselman wants this game to play out on Saturday against the red hot Blue Devils, I'm sure of that. Duke has shot better than 51% in each of its first three games in this tournament. Interestingly, it has actually attempted 58 or fewer field goals in all three contests. I'm not expecting anything to come easy for the Blue Devils on offense here. Note that Arkansas has held six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. With that being said, there is seemingly a 'ceiling' for the Arkansas offense. Even with 70+ FG attempts against Gonzaga it still managed to make good on just 29 field goals. Prior to that it had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. The Hogs have of course made their living at the free throw line this season but it is worth mentioning that the Blue Devils send opponents to the charity stripe just 12 times per game. With the Blue Devils coming off consecutive 'over' results (we cashed with the 'over' in both games), I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-22 | Bucks v. Grizzlies OVER 232.5 | 102-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled 240 points and while we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, I believe it will still prove too low. We of course know that the Bucks can 'fill it up' on any given night, seemingly regardless who is in or out of the lineup. They've made good on 40+ field goals in 14 of their last 15 games overall, and more recently have knocked down 40, 47, 43, 50 and 42 field goals in their last five contests. They also haven't been doing anything to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 92+ field goal attempts in six straight games. As for the Grizzlies, they've hit 40+ field goals in 13 straight games, even with the likes of Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks in and out of the lineup (Morant remains sidelined while Brooks should be back on Saturday). They've been lights out offensively over their last few games, knocking down 46, 47 and 50 field goals over that stretch while scoring 122+ points in all three contests. Take the over (8*). |
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03-25-22 | Iowa State v. Miami-FL OVER 131.5 | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Miami at 9:55 pm et on Friday. The 'under' has cashed in both the first and second round for both of these teams in this tournament. In fact, the last 'over' result for Miami came in a game where we were on that side of the total in an 80-76 loss to Duke in the ACC tournament. I'll go back to the well here, noting that this is the lowest total we've seen in a game involving the Hurricanes in this tournament, by a considerable margin. Miami isn't likely to allow Iowa State to dictate the (slow) pace the way it did in its first two tournament games against LSU and Wisconsin. The Hurricanes have consistently been getting (and making) their shots for weeks now. They check in having knocked down 27+ field goals in 12 of their last 13 games. The lone outlier came in the opener of this tournament against USC - a contest that got off to an incredibly slow start before both teams heated up in the second half (we just missed with the 'over' in that game). On the flip side, Miami is certainly fortunate that Auburn wasn't able to hit anything in its second round matchup, as it did yield the Tigers a whopping 69 field goal attempts. The Canes can't count on the Cyclones shooting as poorly as they did in their first two tourney games (they made just 20 field goals in each contest - shooting sub-36% in both games). Note that entering this tournament, Iowa State had allowed 28, 25, 22, 26, 20, 21, 25, 20, 23, 26 and 28 made field goals over its last 11 games (I know you get the picture but sometimes seeing the numbers visually is better). None of those numbers are earth-shattering, but my point is, the Cyclones haven't been completely locking opponents down defensively. I am confident Iowa State can contribute enough offensively to help this total along, noting that Miami ranks 121st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, according to KenPom. The Canes check in having allowed opponents to make good on 26-of-56 field goal attempts per game including eight made threes per contest away from home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-25-22 | Rockets v. Blazers UNDER 234.5 | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I understand the thinking that this will be a 'defense-optional' type of affair but I have little confidence in both offenses showing up and hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. Houston 'unders' have been one of the best kept betting secrets in the NBA lately as each of its last four contests have stayed 'under' the total with only one of those games coming anywhere close to eclipsing the total. The Rockets have gotten off just 86, 77, 85, 79, 86, 85 and 82 field goal attempts over their last seven games. They've made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. Houston has topped out at 118 points over its last seven contests and even that might not be enough to topple the total on Friday. After a miserable stretch of non-existent defense we have seen the Rockets hold their last two opponents to just 85 and 86 FG attempts. It's not as if the Blazers have been able to consistently push the pace, not with their injury-depleted roster that was already cleaned out by way of trades prior to the deadline. They've made good on just 38, 37 and 36 field goals over their last three games. Pre-trade deadline acquisition Josh Hart gave them a bit of an offensive spark on a recent road trip but now he's sidelined due to injury as well. On a positive note, Portland has at least been limiting its opponents scoring opportunities (relatively-speaking, I know), yielding 80, 77, 84, 85 and 94 FG attempts over its last five contests. Its most recent game was the outlier as it allowed a whopping 133 points against San Antonio. Of course, the Rockets aren't the Spurs, and I expect a better defensive effort from the Blazers here. Take the under (8*). |
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03-25-22 | Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 227.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and it's not as if they're getting any looser. Neither team has scored more than 114 points in any of the previous three matchups with those contests totalling 216, 216 and 218 total points. I would anticipate tonight's contest being played at a very similar pace to what we saw earlier this week when the Mavs prevailed by a 110-108 score in Dallas. That game saw the two teams combined to knock down 27 three-pointers (they average a combined 28 made threes per game this season) and 39 free throws (they average 34 made free throws combined this season). The Mavs continue to put the defensive clamps on the opposition, yielding fewer than 89 FG attempts in seven of their last nine games. The only two opponents that got off more than 89 attempts were Brooklyn and the same Minnesota squad they'll face tonight, with those two scoring just 111 and 108 points, respectively. Meanwhile, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time the Mavs hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in a game. The T'Wolves are actually a respectable defensive team here at home this season, holding the opposition to 38-of-87 shooting on average with the 'under' cashing at a 19-17-1 clip. They got lit up by a red hot Suns squad that couldn't miss last time out. Coming off consecutive losses I look for Minnesota to tighten things up here. Note that the last three times they've played at home following consecutive losses they've allowed just 103, 99 and 106 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-22 | Warriors +3 v. Hawks | 110-121 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this matchup. Yes, the Warriors have been unsteady, particularly since losing Steph Curry to injury. However, they did rebound with a big win in Miami two nights ago (with Klay Thompson resting) and I look for them to build on that performance here. Note that the Warriors continue to play exceptional defense. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of their last four opponents has managed to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to tonight's opponent, Atlanta, which has allowed 12 straight opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. Incredibly, you would have to go all the way back to January 28th against Boston to find the last time it held an opponent to fewer than 100 points. The Warriors have accomplished that feat four times since then. The Hawks haven't exactly been lighting it up offensively either. Yes, they went off thanks to Trae Young's heroics at Madison Square Garden earlier this week. However, they've been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six games. Take Golden State (8*). |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue OVER 133 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NCAA Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Peter's and Purdue at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen this total drop since opening as it seems bettors have little faith in St. Peter's to keep it rolling against Purdue. The Peacocks have certainly impressed through two tournament games, scoring 85 points in a win over Kentucky (aided by overtime - they scored 71 points in regulation time) and then 70 points in a double-digit victory over Murray State. Even though the game against Kentucky went to overtime, the Peacocks still made good on 27-of-54 field goal attempts in regulation time. Here, they're likely to be afforded a whole lot more scoring opportunities, noting that Purdue has yielded 61, 60, 59, 69, 61, 63 and 68 field goal attempts over its last seven games. The Boilermakers allow an average of 61 FG attempts per game away from home this season. Not only that, but the opposition has knocked down an average of nine three-pointers per game against the Boilers away from their home gym. My point is, there's going to be a path for the Peacocks to score a reasonable number of points and keep this game competitive - which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Of course, little needs to be said about the Purdue offense. The Boilers currently rank first in the nation in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. While St. Peter's has been terrific defensively, coming from the MAAC it's no surprise that its slate of opponents ranks 185th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. This is a considerable step up in class, noting that the Peacocks allowed Kentucky to make good on 26-of-61 field goal attempts in the opening round of this tournament (again, aided by overtime). Earlier in the season, St. Peter's faced a couple of opponents in the same vein as Purdue, with those contests totalling 161 points against St. John's and 156 points against Providence - another team that's still dancing in this tournament. I mentioned that Purdue has yielded plenty of FG attempts on a game-by-game basis but it has also allowed 26+ made field goals in seven of its last nine games. Both teams have shown the ability to get to the free throw line with St. Peter's averaging 20 field goal attempts per game while also sending opponents to the line 22 times per contest. Purdue averages 22 trips to the charity stripe per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-24-22 | Houston v. Arizona OVER 145 | 72-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Arizona at 9:59 pm et on Thursday. This is the highest total in a game involving Houston since way back on December 11th when it faced Alabama - a game that totalled 165 points. I believe it's warranted. While Arizona's offense will get most of the hype leading into this matchup, it's worth noting that Houston has made good on 25+ field goals in 13 of its last 16 games, eclipsing the 30 field goal mark in six of those games. Here, the Cougars will likely be involved a much faster-paced game than they're used to, but I don't think we'll see them shy away from an up-tempo affair. Arizona has yielded 62, 69, 69 and 74 field goal attempts over its last four games and 60+ FG attempts in 21 of their last 25 contests overall. Of course, as I alluded to, the Wildcats are capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard on any given night. They've racked up 26+ made field goals in eight straight games, reaching the 30 mark five times over that stretch. Yes, Houston is an elite defensive team. That being said, it hasn't faced many teams like Arizona this season. In fact, the Cougars rank 92nd in the country in terms of opponents' average adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Take the over (6*). |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke OVER 137 | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and Duke at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Duke's most recent game - an 85-76 win over Michigan State in the round of 32 last Sunday. That game got into the 160's despite about a four-minute stretch in the first half where neither the Blue Devils or Spartans could hit a shot. Few teams are playing at the same level as Duke offensively right now, maybe Gonzaga and Arizona would fit in that category. The Blue Devils have made good on 35, 32, 34, 32, 29, 24, 30 and 32 field goals in their last eight games. However, at the other end of the floor they've yielded 64+ field goal attempts in six straight games. I realize Texas Tech doesn't play at a fast pace - far from it, in fact. But I do think the Red Raiders will have plenty of opportunity to get loose offensively in this one. Note that Texas Tech has managed to knock down 28, 21, 27, 36 and 21 field goals in its last five games so some consistency to rely on there. With that being said, the Red Raiders shot just 21-of-59 last time out against Notre Dame. Keep in mind, they've averaged right around 27 made field goals per game after being held to 21 or fewer made field goals in their previous game this season (nine-game sample size). The question here really becomes whether the Duke offense can keep rolling against an elite Texas Tech defense. I'm confident it can, noting that while Texas Tech yields just 21-of-55 shooting away from home this season, it has given up eight made threes per contest, an area where the Blue Devils can thrive. Also consider we're dealing with a reasonably low total here - the lowest in a Duke game since it faced Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game - a contest that totalled 149 points. Take the over (8*). |
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03-24-22 | Pacers +12.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pacers suffered a disappointing home loss to the lowly Kings last night, snapping a two-game winning streak. I look for them to bounce back with a better performance against a much tougher opponents in Memphis on Thursday. Note that the Pacers continue to thrive offensively, making good on 41+ field goals in eight straight games entering Thursday's contest. On the flip side, we've seen Indiana hold its last three opponents to 79, 81 and 82 field goal attempts. I don't need to tell you that if they're able to continue that trend here it will be awfully tough for the Grizzlies to cover such a lofty pointspread. Memphis is coming off a dominant win over the Nets at home last night. Like the Pacers, they've continued to roll offensively, however they've actually allowed 41+ made field goals in four of their last five contests - only the reeling Rockets failed to reach that mark over that stretch. Here, I think there's a good chance we see Memphis 'manage' proceedings, noting that it has a four-game in six-night stretch on deck, beginning Saturday against the defending champion Bucks. Take Indiana (9*). |
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03-24-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans +1.5 | Top | 109-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are a team we want to back right now, checking in 4-1 ATS over their last five games and well-positioned to bounce back following a loss in Charlotte three nights ago. New Orleans has been incredibly consistent offensively, making good on 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games entering Thursday's contest. That's not to mention the fact that it has held seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those seven opponents to less than 80. That spells trouble for a Bulls squad that has seen its season go off the rails, losing nine of its last 12 games. Chicago has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in four of its last six games. Meanwhile, it has given up 42, 47, 40 and 50 made field goals over its last four contests. Look for a revenge-minded Pelicans squad (the Bulls took the only previous meeting this season by 16 points in Chicago back in October) to prevail on Thursday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-24-22 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 214.5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. Are the Cavaliers a bad defensive team? They certainly have been lately, allowing 43, 41, 46, 41 and 53 made field goals and 109+ points in each of their last five games. Things won't get any easier against a Raptors squad that returns home off a double-digit loss in Chicago two nights ago. While Toronto didn't have a great night shooting the ball against the Bulls, it continues to force the issue offensively, getting off 94, 102, 96. 83, 97, 93 and 91 field goal attempts over its last seven games. Defensively, the Raps have been a bit of a mixed bag lately. Here, they'll host a Cavs squad that has continued to thrive offensively, knocking down 44, 45 and 45 field goals over their last three games and scoring 113+ points in five consecutive games. While the last meeting between these two teams on March 6th was of the low-scoring variety (200 total points scored), just two matchups back the Cavs hung 144 points on the Raps, shooting a ridiculous 56-for-106 from the field in that victory. With Toronto having lost all three previous meetings in this series this season we can expect it to go all out on Thursday, I'm just not convinced it will be able to run away and hide, and that type of situation lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Gonzaga at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Arkansas enters this showdown with Gonzaga having dropped the cash in three straight games so this is a slam dunk for the number-one ranked Bulldogs, right? I'm not so sure. The Razorbacks have thrived in the role of underdog, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in that role. The Hogs are here despite knocking down just 14 field goals against New Mexico State. Only once previously this season did they make good on fewer than 20 field goals in a game (they still won that contest against Tennessee). In their next game following that poor shooting performance, they knocked down 29-of-63 field goal attempts in an 82-74 win at Florida. Here, the Hogs should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that Gonzaga yields a ton of FG attempts, generally between 60-70 per game (an average of 65 away from home this season). Of course, the Razorbacks haven't been a great shooting team this season but they 'find a way' getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. There's certainly room for some regression from the Zags offense here after shooting 51% and 52% in their first two games in this tournament. Arkansas certainly poses a challenge defensively, ranking 14th in the country according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Razorbacks check in having allowed 53 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last five games. I like the 'no one believes in us' angle that underdogs of this nature tend to carry at this point of the tournament, and that's certainly been played up by Hogs head coach Eric Musselman in the days leading up to this game. I look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Arkansas (10*). |
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03-23-22 | 76ers -7 v. Lakers | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a surprising double-digit win on Monday night in Cleveland. Perhaps that victory shouldn't have come as much of a surprise, however, given Lebron James is obviously always going to get up for homecoming games, not to mention the fact that the Cavs have been playing an uneven brand of basketball for weeks now. We should see a different story unfold on Wednesday as the Lakers return home to host the 76ers. Philadelphia posted a seven-point win over Miami as an eight-point underdog on Monday (without Joel Embiid and James Harden). The Sixers have been smothering opposing offenses, holding four of their last five opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Their last four opponents have managed to knock down only 39, 37, 35 and 38 field goals. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers non-existent defense, which has yielded 40, 49, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last four contests. Yes, L.A. has gone off offensively over its last few games but it will be taking a step up in class here against a 76ers defense that allows an average of 39-for-85 shooting on the road this season, including just 11-of-33 from three-point range. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU minus the points over Washington State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I don't believe BYU is getting enough respect given how well it has played over the last month. The Cougars check in 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests with their only two losses over that stretch coming against NCAA Tournament-bound teams in St. Mary's and San Francisco. While Washington State has been playing well also, having won six of its last seven overall, it has also caught some good fortune along the way, particularly here in the NIT as its last two opponents have combined to shoot a woeful 40-of-118 from the field. Some of that can obviously be chalked up to good defense, but I'm of the belief that sometimes the shots just don't fall (note that prior to its last two contests, Washington State had allowed 25+ made field goals in five of its last seven games). Note that the Cougars of Washington State have actually afforded their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 64, 61, 60 and 58 field goal attempts over their last four games. Give BYU that many chances and it will take advantage, noting that the Cougars are scorching hot right now, having made good on 32+ field goals in four of their last six games and and incredible 72-for-134 from the field over their last two contests alone. Meanwhile, the BYU defense has done a good job of limiting its opponents opportunities, allowing 58 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games. Keep in mind, Washington State has struggled to knock down its shots all season, particularly away from home where it averages only 24-of-61 shooting. By contrast, BYU has averaged four more field goals per game on one fewer attempt here at home (28-of-60). Take BYU (10*). |
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03-22-22 | Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 115-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We've missed with the 'under' in the Nuggets last two games but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they host the struggling Clippers on Tuesday. Note that Denver's most recent game just as easily could have stayed 'under' were it not for the red hot Celtics absolutely shooting the lights out. Remember, two games back the Nuggets game in Cleveland stayed 'under' the total for us in regulation time before flying 'over' thanks to overtime. The pace simply hasn't been there for a sustainable 'over' run when it comes to Denver. It has now held nine of its last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in regulation time including each of its last four. Meanwhile, the Denver offense cooled off last game, knocking down just 35-of-87 FG attempts against the Celtics. Note that the Nuggets have gotten off 90 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time in 14 consecutive games. The Clippers meanwhile desperately need to tighten things up after three straight losses. I'm confident they'll do just that on Tuesday, noting that they've been idle since a blowout loss in Utah on Friday. L.A. has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately, shooting 38-of-78 and 31-of-86 over its last two games. Note that the 'under' is 11-2 with the Clips playing on the road off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 203.7 points. Take the under (8*). |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Xavier OVER 143 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Vanderbilt and Xavier at 9 pm et on Tuesday. While the pace has certainly been there, Xavier has seen its first two NIT matchups stay 'under' the total. I look for that to change on Tuesday as they host Vanderbilt in quarter-final action. The Musketeers game against Florida on Sunday certainly looked on track to fly 'over' the total early but Florida settled into a scoring drought and never really recovered, ultimately making good on just 21-of-64 field goal attempts in a 72-56 Xavier win. Now we're being offered the lowest total we've seen in Xavier's three NIT games and I believe it will prove too low. The Musketeers have yielded 60+ FG attempts in five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall. The 'over' has cashed at a 7-4 clip over that stretch. We know Vandy is comfortable pushing the pace, noting that it has hoisted up 62+ FG attempts in four of its last five contests. In the only game where it didn't it still managed to score in the 80's against Alabama. On the flip side, the Commodores have yielded 67, 61, 60 and 56 FG attempts themselves over their last four games. Opponents have generally been 'filling it up' against them, knocking down 24, 30, 27 and 26 field goals over those four contests with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 along the way. For its part, Xavier checks in having made good on 35, 33, 24 and 26 field goals over its last four games, scoring 72+ points in all four games. We don't need a track meet to cash this ticket but I do think we'll see a relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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03-21-22 | Celtics v. Thunder UNDER 216.5 | 132-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'under' in the Celtics rout of the Nuggets last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Monday as they head to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder. This is certainly a game I can envision the Celtics 'managing' as they wrap up a four-game in six-night road trip - one that has been highly-successful as they've won all three games so far. After shooting a blistering 56% and 57% over their last two games I do anticipate some regression from the C's here. Note that Boston is by no means pushing the pace, having gotten off 88, 81, 82 and 82 field goal attempts in its last four games. On the flip side, perhaps no team in the league is as locked-in defensively as Boston right now. It has limited each of its last six opponents to 36 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back to March 3rd to find the last time an opponent got off 90+ field goal attempts. Oklahoma City scored just 85 points in last night's loss in Orlando, clearly looking like a team that's running out of gas missing a number of key contributors, and one that will now be playing its sixth game in the last nine nights (in four different cities) on Monday. The Thunder have to realize their only hope of staying remotely competitive in this game is by mucking things up and turning it into a slugfest, especially if Shae-Gilgeous Alexander is forced to miss a second straight game (he remains questionable at the time of writing). The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 216 points, but that contest was played at a faster pace than I'm projecting tonight (OKC got off 96 FG attempts and the two teams combined to make good on 35 three-pointers - they average just 25 combined per game this season). Take the under (8*). |
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03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama UNDER 142 | 79-83 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between USC Upstate and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. USC Upstate enters this contest off consecutive 'over' results while South Alabama saw its opening round matchup stay 'under' the total. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. The visiting Spartans stunned heavily-favored Appalachian State to get to this game. In that contest, they knocked down 30-of-66 field goals - two numbers I don't expect them to approach against an incredibly stingy South Alabama squad on Monday. Note that the Jaguars have held opponents to an average of 21-of-56 shooting at home this season, including just six made three-pointers per game. On the flip side, South Alabama managed to put up 70 points in a narrow win over Southeast Louisiana in its tournament opener. Of course, it needed 61 field goal attempts to get there, making good on 28 of them. Note that the Jaguars don't generally look to push the pace. Prior to their last game, you would have to go all the way back to January 6th to find the last time they hoisted up more than 58 FG attempts in a game. Meanwhile, USC Upstate has held three of its last five opponents to 54 or fewer FG attempts. The only two opponents to top that mark over that stretch only managed to make good on 24 and 20 of those attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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03-21-22 | Lakers v. Cavs UNDER 227 | Top | 131-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Cavs enter Monday's game on the heels of four consecutive 'over' results. I expect that streak to come to an end here, as they host the road-weary Lakers. We of course missed with the 'under' in the Cavs overtime win over the Nuggets on Friday. We obviously deserved a better fate in that contest as the score stayed 'under' the total in regulation time before eclipsing the number in OT. Cleveland has now held its last three opponents to just 79, 83 and 85 field goal attempts in regulation time. All three opponents happened to shoot considerably better than their season average but I'm not anticipating a similar story to unfold here as the Lakers play their third game in four nights away from home. L.A. actually managed to shoot the lights out on Friday in Toronto and Saturday in Washington. Prior to that, the Lakers had made good on fewer than 40 field goals in three straight games, scoring 111 points or less in all three of those contests. Cleveland isn't likely to push the pace too much in this one, noting that it has gotten off fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in six consecutive games. The Cavs shot exceptionally well on Saturday night against Detroit (better than 50%) but again, we can expect some regression here as they play their third game in four nights and perhaps look to 'manage' proceedings a little bit here as they take the floor for the seventh time in the last 11 nights. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season was played at a similar pace to what I'm projecting tonight, and that contest totalled just 214 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-22 | Northern Colorado v. North Carolina-Asheville +1.5 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
CBI Game of the Year. My selection is on UNC-Asheville plus the points over Northern Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams staged upset victories in their respective opening round CBI matchups. I look for UNC-Asheville to be the team playing on following Monday's clash at Daytona Beach. Asheville has been nothing if not consistent offensively, making good on 25+ field goals in eight of its last nine games. While it has proven vulnerable defensively it hasn't shown a tendency to let opponents get out and run recently, limiting five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to Northern Colorado, which has given up 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and 70+ in two of its last three contests. Northern Colorado relies heavily on the three-ball to support its offense and that's notable as UNC-Asheville checks in allowing just five made threes per game away from home this season. We've certainly seen some inconsistency from the Bears lately as they're just one game removed from making good on only 19 field goals in an 88-67 loss to Montana State. They've been held to 57 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last six games overall. There's little reason to think Asheville won't be able to 'fill it up' here, with the Bears yielding 25+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games and 28+ in half of those contests. You could certainly argue that Northern Colorado is fortunate to still be playing, surviving against Florida Atlantic last time out despite the Owls getting off 14 more FG attempts in a game that went right down to the wire. Asheville is'nt likely to beat itself here, noting that it has been quite disciplined away from home this season, sending opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per contest while getting there 20 times per game itself. Take UNC-Asheville (10*). |
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03-20-22 | Celtics v. Nuggets UNDER 222 | 124-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Denver at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We suffered a bad beat with the 'under' in the Nuggets last game as overtime ended up pushing the final score 'over' the total in Cleveland. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as Denver returns home to host the Celtics on Sunday. I'm not sure any team is as locked-in defensively as the Celtics right now. They've held their last five opponents to 36, 35, 33, 32 and 33 made field goals, allowing no more than 86 field goal attempts in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 4-1 over that stretch. Note also that Boston is by no means tearing up and down the floor on offense, getting off just 88, 81 and 82 FG attempts over its last three contests. Meanwhile, Denver checks in off consecutive 'over' results but the pace certainly hasn't been there to dictate that. Note that the Nuggets have held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts in regulation time. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to February 16th to find the last time they attempted more than 90 field goals in a game. They've gotten off no more than 87 FG attempts in eight of their last nine games. Note that the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 210 points and that was a game that was played at a faster pace than I'm anticipating tonight (both teams attempted 90+ field goals in that February 11th game). Take the under (8*). |
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03-20-22 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Auburn | Top | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Auburn at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. At 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games, the Miami Hurricanes have been one of the best bets in the country over the last month-plus. I certainly don't expect them to back down against the Auburn Tigers - one of the favorites to win the National Championship - on Sunday. Miami has been doing a terrific job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities and that continued against USC in the opening round. The Canes have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. While a number of their recent opponents have made the most of their opportunities, I'm not convinced we'll see Auburn do that here. Note that the Tigers have made good on 28 or fewer field goals in seven straight games, despite getting off 61 or more attempts in all but two of those contests. On the flip side, Auburn's relatively fast-pace does afford opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, as it checks in having yielded 61, 67, 64, 57 and 61 field goal attempts over its last five contests. Miami figures to take advantage, noting that the Canes have knocked down 28+ field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. I actually see this one playing out similarly to the Canes recent ACC Tournament matchup with Duke - a game in which they scored 76 points and lost by only four points. Take Miami (10*). |
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03-20-22 | Michigan State v. Duke OVER 142.5 | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Michigan State and Duke at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. Michigan State saw its NCAA Tournament opener sail 'over' the total while Duke had its six-game 'over' streak come to an end in its rout of Cal-State Fullerton. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring second round affair between the Spartans and Blue Devils. Both offenses can absolutely 'fill it up' with Michigan State having made good on 27+ field goals in six of its last eight games and Duke knocking down 29+ field goals in six of its last seven contests. On the flip side, neither defense has really shown the ability or interest in slowing the pace, with MSU allowing 61, 64, 60, 57 and 59 field goal attempts over its last five games and Duke yielding 64+ FG attempts in each of its last five contests. The opportunities to run this score up should certainly be there on Sunday, noting that the Spartans allow an average of 59 FG attempts per game away from home with the Blue Devils yielding an average of 62 away from Cameron Indoor Stadium. The only thing keeping me from going to a higher rating is the fact that both teams are fairly disciplined and we're unlikely to see a parade to the free throw line at any point in this one. Take the over (9*). |
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03-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 235 | Top | 122-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Houston at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Sunday afternoon in Houston. The Grizzlies offense got bogged down in a 120-105 loss in Atlanta on Friday, getting off just 85 field goal attempts in the loss. Keep in mind, they had hoisted up 92+ field goal attempts in seven straight games prior to that, including 101 or more in each of their last four contests. Here, the Rockets are unlikely to contain the Grizzlies offense, noting that Houston has yielded 91+ FG attempts in six of its last seven games, allowing seven straight opponents to knock down 40+ field goals with six of those opponents making good on at least 44 field goals. On the flip side, we've seen the Rockets make good on exactly 39 field goals in two of their last three games but that's had more to do with slow pace than anything else. Here, they should be afforded the opportunity to get out and run against a Grizzlies defense that has permitted 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. The Rockets attempted just 82 field goals in their most recent meeting with Memphis back on March 6th, but still managed to score 123 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-20-22 | Florida v. Xavier OVER 144 | 56-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Xavier at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Xavier's NIT opener against Cleveland State. We probably deserved a better fate as the pace was certainly there to get that one 'over' the total. Xavier continues to push the pace at every opportunity, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. The Musketeers simply had an off night shooting the ball against Cleveland State, noting that they made good on just 24-of-62 FG attempts. Keep in mind, prior to that, Xavier had knocked down 33 and 35 field goals over its last two contests. Here, it will face a Florida squad that has allowed 29, 27, 30, 28, 24 and 29 field goals over its last six games. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has gone 5-1 over that stretch. Like Xavier, Florida continues to force the issue offensively, getting off 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five contests. The Gators have made good on 25+ field goals in six straight games. Xavier has certainly allowed the opposition to 'fill it up' lately, yielding 27+ made field goals in seven of its last eight games. Take the over (9*). |
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03-19-22 | New Orleans v. Portland OVER 153.5 | 73-94 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams will be looking to get out and run in their Basketball Classic opener on Saturday night. New Orleans hoisted up 62+ field goals in four of their last five games heading into this tournament. The Privateers bowed out of the Southland Conference Tournament thanks to a brutal shooting performance against Southeast Louisiana. I certainly expect them to bounce back here, noting that they knocked down 28+ field goals in six of their last eight contests. Here, they'll be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a Portland squad that allowed 27, 24, 36, 23 and 31 made field goals over its last five games, showing no ability or interest in controlling their opponents tempo down the stretch. The Pilots have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Offensively, we saw Portland round into form down the stretch, making good on 34, 29, 24, 35, 27 and 25 field goals over its last six contests. Here at home this season, the Pilots make an average of 27 field goals per game including eight from beyond the arc, while also getting to the free throw line 22 times per contest. New Orleans should offer little in the way of resistance, allowing 28, 30, 26, 31, 25 and 26 field goals over its last six games. Away from home this season, the Privateers have yielded 28-of-62 shooting on average, including eight made threes per game. Like Portland, New Orleans also lived at the free throw line for much of the season, particularly away from home where it averages 25 free throw attempts per game. Take the over (8*). |
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03-19-22 | Lakers v. Wizards -1.5 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both teams are in a back-to-back spot here and while the Lakers check in off an overtime win over the Raptors, the Wizards are coming off their sixth consecutive loss. I like Washington to bounce back here, however, as it returns home before heading out on the road for another three. The Wizards offense has gotten bogged down lately, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in 10 straight games, winning only twice over that stretch. Here, it should benefit from a lot more scoring opportunities against a Lakers squad that has had no ability, or interest in controlling opponents' tempo, yielding 90+ FG attempts in seven of their last nine contests. This is a quick rematch between these two teams after the Lakers won by 13 in Los Angeles last Friday. L.A. shot the lights out in that game but I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that the Lakers average just 109.0 points per game when coming off a win this season (2.1 points per game less than their season scoring average), outscored by 3.8 points on average in that spot. Take Washington (8*). |
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03-19-22 | Richmond v. Providence OVER 134 | Top | 51-79 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Richmond and Providence at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams saw their opening round games stay 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a reasonably low total here. Richmond has actually seen consecutive 'unders', even if the pace in yesterday's upset win over Iowa would have usually dictated an 'over' result. The Spiders were certainly fortunate to catch Iowa on an off day shooting-wise, perhaps suffering from a letdown following its Big Ten Tournament championship run. The Hawkeyes got off 66 field goal attempts against Richmond but could only knock down 24 of them. It was a similar story in the A-10 Tournament final as Davidson shot 19-of-51 against the Spiders. Here, I'm anticipating a better shooting performance from Providence. The Friars had a poor day shooting the basketball yesterday as well, not all that surprising as teams adjust to playing in new venues in the tournament's opening weekend. Providence did hoist up 61 FG attempts but made good on just 24 of them. Note that prior to that, the Friars had seen each of their last four games in which they attempted 60+ field goals go 'over' the total. Going back to February 15th, Providence has attempted 62, 60, 68, 59, 56, 54, 65 and 61 field goals so it has certainly been making an effort to push the tempo. Like the Spiders, the Friars benefited from yesterday's opponent - normally explosive South Dakota State - shooting a woeful 22-of-57 from the field. Providence has yielded plenty of scoring opportunities in recent games, allowing 79, 59, 57, 61, 57 and 57 FG attempts over its last six contests. It's certainly worth noting that yesterday's game against the Jackrabbits also featured just 21 free throw attempts. The Spiders and Friars combine to average 39 free throw attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | 76-68 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Tennessee at 5:15 pm et on Saturday. Michigan enters this game off three consecutive 'over' results while Tennessee posted an 'over' result of its own in its tournament-opening blowout win over Longwood. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as the two power programs match up in round two. Tennessee should be able to frustrate the Michigan offense here, noting that the Vols have limited three of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts. Over that stretch they've given up just 19, 22, 16 and 20 made field goals. On the season, Tennessee yields just 22 made field goals per game away from home including only six made threes per contest. While Michigan ended up scoring 75 points in its tournament-opening win over Colorado State, it only got there thanks to shooting the lights out. The Wolverines actually only managed to get off 48 FG attempts in that contest. It was a similar story for the Vols, as they attempted 55 field goals against Longwood, making good on 33 of them. That certainly hasn't been the norm for Tennessee, however, noting that it has made good on 24 or fewer field goals in seven of its last 11 games overall. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Vols attempted 60+ field goals, and even in that contest they only managed to knock down 27. Take the under (8*). |
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03-19-22 | Western Illinois v. UTEP OVER 144 | Top | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Western Illinois and UTEP at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter this tournament off 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Saturday afternoon. Western Illinois is one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, particularly away from home where it averages a whopping 66 field goal attempts per game. That's a stark contrast to what UTEP is accustomed to facing. I also feel the Miners could be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here given WIU averages 10 more three-point attempts per game than UTEP has faced this season. While I do consider the Miners to be a quality defensive team, they weren't at their best down the stretch, allowing 23+ made field goals in each of their last seven games, despite playing at a reasonably slow pace (only one of their opponents over that stretch got off 60+ FG attempts and that game against Old Dominion went 'over' the total by double-digits). Of course, WIU is one of the weaker defensive teams in the nation. It checks in having allowed seven of its last 10 opponents to make good on 30+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-4 over that stretch. UTEP actually rounded into form offensively down the stretch, knocking down 25, 29, 22, 28 and 24 field goals over its last five contests. Again, that's more impressive when you consider the slow pace the Miners generally play at (they attempted more than 57 field goals just once over that five-game stretch). I'm not convinced the opening round of 'The Basketball Classic' is the time and place for a defensive slugfest. I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-22 | North Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 149 | 93-86 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Baylor at 12:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in North Carolina's first game of this tournament - a stunning rout of Marquette on Thursday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Tar Heels face a much tougher challenge in the form of the defending national champion Baylor Bears. Baylor has allowed 28 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games. The only opponent to reach that 28 mark was Iowa State and that game still totalled only 143 points. Note that Baylor checks in having held its last three opponents to just 59, 51 and 57 field goal attempts. North Carolina shot the lights out against Marquette, making good on 34-of-74 FG attempts. It went off from three-point range in particular but now goes up against a Bears squad that guards the perimeter fiercely, allowing only six made threes per contest away from home this season. The Bears knocked down 31-of-54 FG attempts in their NCAA Tournament opener against Norfolk State. Note that prior to that they had made good on 28 or fewer field goals in eight straight contests. For its part, North Carolina has allowed 27 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 11 games overall and also sends opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per game away from home this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-18-22 | Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers enter Friday's game in Utah off consecutive losses but extended losing streaks have certainly not been common for them this season, with their longest lasting just three games. I expect them to bounce back here against an undermanned Jazz squad that will be without both Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic (that duo combined to shoot 17-of-25 in the most recent meeting between these two teams in December). While Los Angeles has lost back-to-back games, I like what I've seen from it defensively as it has limited its last three opponents to just 80, 86 and 83 field goal attempts. Of the Clippers last eight opponents, only two have managed to get off 90+ FG attempts. After allowing five straight opponents to make good on 41 or more field goals, the Clips have now held two of their last three opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. The Jazz haven't been able to get out and run as much as they would likely lately, and when they have, they've struggled shooting the ball. They've attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six of their last eight contests. In the other two games they shot a miserable 37-of-92 and 37-of-93 in outright losses as favorites against the Bucks and Spurs. Meanwhile, Utah has allowed its last three opponents to knock down 47, 40 and 43 field goals, giving up 125, 117 and 110 points in the process. Of Utah's last eight opponents, four of them have gotten off 91+ FG attempts. Keep in mind, the Clippers are just one game removed from hoisting up 98 FG attempts in a loss to the Cavs. I think we'll see the revenge-minded Clips afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. Note that while Utah took the most recent meeting between these two teams, that was only thanks to shooting the lights out (47-of-89 - with Mitchell and Bogdanovic key contributors as I mentioned earlier). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-18-22 | Nuggets v. Cavs UNDER 223 | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Nuggets saw their most recent game go 'over' the total in Washington two nights ago (we missed with the 'under' in that contest) while the Cavs have seen their last two games go 'over' the total, not to mention four of their last five overall. With that being said, we're dealing with a higher posted total here than we saw in the first meeting between these two teams back in late October - a game that totalled just 186 points in Denver. That game was played at a similar pace to what we can probably expect here and while I do look for both teams to shoot better than they did on that night, I'm not sure it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total as we certainly have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Note that the Nuggets have by no means been playing at a frenetic pace. They've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of their last eight and 10 of their last 12 games overall. In the two outliers over that stretch they attempted just 90 field goals on both occasions. That's not to mention the fact that they've held five of their last six opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. They're just one game removed from holding a good 76ers offense to 36-of-84 shooting, on the road no less. Likewise, the Cavs haven't been playing at a pace that would dictate their recent run of 'over' results. They've gotten off 79, 86, 86 and 80 FG attempts over their last four games and have made good on fewer than 40 field goals in eight of their last 11 contests. I do think Cleveland is a better defensive team than it has shown lately, most recently allowing the aforementioned 76ers to shoot a blistering 41-of-79 from the field in a 118-114 loss two nights ago. Note that the Cavs have allowed an average of 38-of-87 shooting here at home this season, where the 'under' has gone 22-10-1. I'm not sure that either team will be interested in a track meet here, noting that the Nuggets are in the midst of a stretch that sees them play eight games in 13 nights (in four different cities) while the Cavs are in the front-half of a back-to-back in a stretch that sees them play six games in nine nights (including tomorrow's home game against Detroit). Take the under (9*). |
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03-18-22 | Chattanooga +8 v. Illinois | Top | 53-54 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Chattanooga plus the points over Illinonis at 6:50 pm et on Friday. I'm confident Chattanooga will be afforded more than enough opportunities to ultimately make life difficult on Illinois and ultimately take this one down to the wire. The Mocs are one of the more underrated teams entering this tournament in my opinion. They caught fire down the stretch and come in playing extremely consistent basketball at both ends of the floor. The Mocs knocked down 25+ field goals in each of their last eight games. You would have to go all the way back to January 12th to find the last time they failed to reach at least 21 made field goals in a game - in fact that was the only time that happened all season. While I'm well aware that Chattanooga plays in a lower-tier conference than Illinois but let's face it, upsets happen in March. The Mocs are capable of hanging with the Illini here, noting that they've done a terrific job of limiting their opponents opportunities, especially when the chips were down, allowing just 54, 57, 48 and 52 field goal attempts over their last four games. No surprise they yielded 66 points or fewer in all four of those contests. They only allowed 60+ FG attempts in four of their last 17 games. The argument could be made that Illinois peaked in late February, when they delivered consecutive wins over Ohio State and Michigan. From there the Illini went 0-3 ATS over their last three games. In one of those contests they outlasted Penn State 60-55 in a game where they knocked down just 18 field goals. While Chattanooga has done a tremendous job of controlling its opponents' tempo, Illinois checks in having yielded 60+ FG attempts in seven of their last 16 games. Again, I realize the gap between the two conferences but I still feel the discrepancy is worth noting. The Illini allowed 27+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as seems to be indicated by the pointspread. Take Chattanooga (10*). |
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03-18-22 | Miami-FL v. USC OVER 139.5 | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and USC at 3:10 pm et on Friday. While it met its demise at the hands of Duke in the ACC Tournament semi-final round, there's no denying Miami heads into this tournament playing well, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. In fact, you'd be hard-pressed to find another team performing as efficiently offensively heading in. Going back to February 12th, the Canes have knocked down 28+ made field goals in nine consecutive games. Not surprisingly, the 'over' cashed in six of those nine contests. On the flip side, Miami has allowed four of its last five opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. The Canes have shown no ability or interest in controlling their opponents' tempo and yielded 28+ made field goals in four of their last five contests. USC got bogged down a bit in the Pac-12 Tournament, seeing its two games stay 'under' the total. The Trojans have yielded 60+ FG attempts in eight of their last 10 games and unlike a lot of their opponents in the Pac-12, the Canes figure to take advantage here. USC wasn't able to get out and run as much as it would have liked to in its last few games but we know that it can, and Miami should afford it that opportunity here. Prior to a poor performance against a terrific UCLA defense, the Trojans had made good on 33, 26, 27, 25 and 25 field goals over their previous five contests. Take the over (9*). |
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03-18-22 | Delaware v. Villanova UNDER 133.5 | 60-80 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Delaware and Villanova at 2:45 pm et on Friday. Delaware heads into this tournament on a five-game 'under' streak while Villanova has posted three consecutive 'under' results. I expect that trend to continue here. The Blue Hens may have ran the table in the CAA Tournament but you could argue that they limp into the NCAA Tournament from an offensive standpoint. You would have to go back to February 24th to find the last time they knocked down more than 26 field goals in a game. That was an outlier game that totalled a whopping 195 points against Charleston. All told, Delaware made good on 24 or fewer field goals in six of its last eight games. While the Blue Hens offense has lagged with the games getting tougher, their defensive has thrived. They check in having allowed 23 or fewer field goals in seven of their last nine contests. In fact, they've yielded fewer than 60 field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. Given the way Villanova plays, this one could very well have an 'old school basketball' kind of feel. The Wildcats have allowed 24, 26, 25, 20, 27, 22 and 19 made field goals over their last seven games, giving up 66 points or less in five of those contests. While Villanova can be an effective, efficient offensive team, it hasn't been lately, making good on 21, 23, 30, 20, 23 and 19 field goals over its last six games. It got off 57 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. I'm not convinced that Delaware is the team to really allow the Wildcats to open things up, nor do I think 'Nova is all that interested in that type of affair here. Take the under (8*). |