Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-19-22 | Magic +12 v. 76ers | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Magic in their last game as they were never all that close in an eventual 10-point loss at home against the surging Blazers. That final score was actually flattering as the Blazers absolutely took the game over in the second and third quarters. Here, I look for the Magic to bounce back with a more competitive effort as they hit the road to face the 76ers. Philadelphia has gone 2-0 against Orlando this season but both previous meetings were competitive with the Sixers winning by five points here at home and 10 on the road (Philadelphia pulled away late for the latter victory - we actually won with the Sixers in that game). Orlando is as healthy as it has been in quite some time and checks in having posted a winning record ATS (8-7) over its last 15 contests. The 76ers have been performing well ATS also but we faded them on Monday in Washington (they lost by 19 points) and I think they might have a tough time getting up for this midweek matchup against a lowly opponent. Note that Philadelphia is just 7-11 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by only 2.6 points on average. Take Orlando (9*). |
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01-19-22 | Nets +1.5 v. Wizards | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a big ticket in support of the Wizards in Monday's eventual rout of the 76ers here at home. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the Wiz as they look to make it two wins in a row against top Eastern Conference opponents at home against the Nets on Wednesday. Brooklyn is coming off a tough road loss in Cleveland on Monday. There's no shame in losing to the Cavs these days though as they're playing as well as anyone in the league, perhaps with the exception of the Grizzlies, right now. Even with Kevin Durant sidelined, I look for the Nets to bounce back in this one. Brooklyn is certainly accustomed to playing without one (if not two) of the 'Big Three'. The Nets have of course been at their best on the road this season where they're 15-5 SU and 11-9 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.2 points. We're able to back them at a discount here as they've gone a woeful 4-7 SU over their last 11 contests. I see this as a big step-up spot, however, before they continue their trip with a couple of tricky Western Conference matchups with the Spurs and T'Wolves. Here, we'll note that the Wizards are a woeful 7-20 ATS the last 27 times they've come off an outright underdog win by 15 points or more, as is the case here, outscored by 9.5 points on average in that spot. Take Brooklyn (9*). |
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01-19-22 | George Washington v. St. Joe's -8.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Joseph's minus the points over George Washington at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The oddsmakers missed the mark badly setting St. Joe's as mid-range favorites at home against La Salle two nights ago - a game the Hawks lost outright by double-digits. After a hot ATS start to the season, St. Joe's has actually dropped the cash in three straight games. I expect the Hawks to right the ship here, however. George Washington is in a clear letdown spot here off a big upset win over George Mason. That victory came at home. The road has been a nightmare for GWU as it has gone 1-7, outscored by an average margin of 11.3 points. The Colonials have faced the nation's 237th toughest schedule according to KenPom. We found out first hand just how bad they can be in a 27-point rout at the hands of VCU just over a week ago. Take St. Joseph's (10*). |
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01-18-22 | South Carolina +12.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on South Carolina plus the points over Arkansas at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This line has been bet up a couple of points since opening to the point that I like the way this one sets up for the Gamecocks, or perhaps moreso as a fade of Arkansas. The Hogs held Missouri to a ridiculous 43 points two games back and followed that up with an upset win at LSU on Saturday. That leaves them in a clear letdown spot here as they host South Carolina which is coming off back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Florida. While the Gamecocks have been wildly inconsistent this season, prolonged ATS losing streaks haven't been part of it. They enter this game on a season-long two-game ATS skid - one that I expect them to break tonight. By contrast, Arkansas is coming off consecutive ATS wins for the first time this season. Here, we'll note that Arkansas has gone 18-35 ATS in its last 53 games when coming off an outright upset win over a conference opponent, outscored by 2.3 points on average in that spot. South Carolina won outright as a 6.5-point underdog the last time these two teams met on this floor two years ago. While I'm not calling for an outright Gamecocks win here, I do expect them to keep it close. Take South Carolina (10*). |
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01-17-22 | Blazers v. Magic +2 | 98-88 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'm not buying the line move here with the Magic shifting from a short favorite to a short underdog. Yes, the Blazers are coming off an upset win in Washington (without Bradley Beal) on Saturday but they're still just 3-14 on the road this season. They're expected to get C.J. McCollum back on Monday night which obviously gives them a boost, but he's likely to be limited in his first game back. Wins have been few and far between for the Magic but they're just one game removed from posting an impressive victory in Charlotte on Friday. They've been slowly getting back some of their injured players with Jalen Suggs returning in that win over Charlotte and proceeding to score 28 points and add nine assists and nine rebounds in 45 minutes in two games. As bad as the Magic have been in recent years they've actually outscored opponents by 0.8 points on average when the line is between +3 and -3 over the last three seasons. The Blazers are off a win as I mentioned but they're also just one game removed from giving up 140 points on a ridiculous 63% shooting in a 32-point loss to the Nuggets. The Magic are by no means the Nuggets but I do expect them to have a good night against the Blazers on Monday. Take Orlando (8*). |
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01-17-22 | Delaware v. Northeastern +2 | 82-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northeastern plus the points over Delaware at 7 pm et on Monday. Most had Northeastern to finish second, perhaps third in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. Things haven't gone the Huskies way, however, with some bad luck (and admittedly poor execution) leading to a 6-10 overall record and an stunning 0-5 in-conference mark. I believe everything is still in front of them, however, with five of their next seven games coming at home, but the turnaround needs to start now. Delaware has more or less had 'luck' on its side over the course of the season and particularly of late. The Blue Hens last two wins came by a combined five points. To take an honest look at their resume so far this season, there really aren't many overly impressive wins. Note that they've faced the 233rd toughest schedule according to KenPom. Northeastern, on the other hand, ranks 153rd in terms of adjusted strength of schedule. Looking to avenge a 2-0 series sweep at the hands of Delaware last year and noting that the last time the Blue Hens posted back-to-back victories in this series was way back in 2014, I'll back the Huskies to come up big on their home floor on Monday. Take Northeastern (8*). |
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01-17-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +3.5 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 2:10 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Wizards in this game as they look to bounce back from Saturday's disappointing home loss to the undermanned Blazers, and snap a two-game skid in this series with the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off an outright underdog win in Miami on Saturday. I don't need to tell you that wasn't really a true 'upset'. The 76ers are one of the Eastern Conference's best teams and they're coming off consecutive wins over the Celtics and aforementioned Heat. I believe a letdown may be in order here, however. While the Sixers are 16-8 on the road this season they've actually only outscored opponents by 1.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Wizards are in one of their most favorable spots here, having gone 33-19 ATS in their last 52 home games when coming off a loss. Bradley Beal may be back for the Wiz this afternoon but even if he's not I like the way this spot sets up. Consider it a bonus if he's able to go. Take Washington (10*). |
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01-15-22 | Cavs v. Thunder +5.5 | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. You would think this would be a clear letdown spot for the Thunder off Thursday's big upset win in Brooklyn (we won with OKC in that game) but I don't see it. Note that Oklahoma City checks in 19-8 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win on the road over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 points in that situation. The Cavs are coming off three straight wins on their current road trip. They've covered the spread in consecutive games but it's worth noting that it marks their first ATS winning streak since reeling off six straight covers from December 8th to 18th. The Cavs actually check into this one just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 contests. Meanwhile, OKC has been one of the best bets in the NBA for nearly a month now, having gone 12-3 ATS over its last 15 games. Their two highest scoring performances of the season have come in their last two games as they put up 118 and 130 points. No reason to shy away from the Thunder here. Take Oklahoma City (9*). |
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01-15-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. Bucks | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Milwaukee at 6:40 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors were in a tough spot last night, laying points on the road against a less-than-inspiring opponent in the Pistons after a hard-fought four-point loss at home to the Suns two nights earlier. Perhaps not surprisingly, they weren't able to get up for the game and lost in a game that was never all that competitive. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Raps in Milwaukee. The Bucks drilled the Warriors two nights ago but are still just 2-4 SU and ATS over their last six games. Going back to December 8th, they've had just two ATS winning streaks. The Raps meanwhile, have failed to cover the spread (using the closing number) in three straight games, matching their longest such stretch of the season. Interestingly the last time they failed to do so they defeated the Bucks by a 97-93 score as a 4.5-point underdog back on December 2nd. Take Toronto (8*). |
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01-15-22 | Incarnate Word v. Texas A&M Corpus Christi -13.5 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Southland Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas A&M Corpus Christi minus the points over Incarnate Word at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. The Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders have quietly been one of the best bets in the nation this season, going 10-3 ATS. They're in a smash spot on Saturday as they host 4-13 Incarnate Word. The Cardinals are actually coming off a win last Saturday but that came at the expense of 4-9 Houston Baptist. Incarnate Word's three previous wins this season came against the likes of Dallas Christian, 5-12 Grambling State and Our Lady of the Lake. The Cardinals have recently lost games by 31 points at home against Nicholls State, 45 points at Texas, 30 points at Rice and 33 points at Abilene-Christian. The Islanders have plenty of runway in front of them right now, with their next three games coming at home against Incarnate Word, McNeese State and Houston Baptist as they look to climb from third spot in the Southland Conference. Take Texas A&M Corpus Christi (10*). |
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01-14-22 | Fresno State v. UNLV +2 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
CBB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 11 pm et on Friday. This line has been moving in Fresno State's favor which is not all that surprising ahead of this Mountain West clash on Friday night in Sin City. Fresno State is off to a stellar 13-4 start this season but a closer inspection indicates we should perhaps pump the brakes a little. Note that the Bulldogs rank 228th in the nation in terms of strength of schedule (according to KenPom). Not only that but they sit 354th in the country in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). While that's not a reason for concern in and of itself, the fact that they shoot just a shade over 40% from the field on the road and average only six made threes per game is. Keep in mind, they continue to play without transfer Jemarl Baker, who was supposed to be a big part of their offense this season and contributed 30 points in only 41 minutes in his final two games before injuring his knee back in December. UNLV is coming off an 85-point explosion in a 29-point rout of New Mexico last time out. The Runnin' Rebels have scored 80+ points in each of their last three games and check in 5-1 SU And 4-2 ATS over their last six contests. The Rebels shouldn't have to approach that lofty point total here noting that the winner in this matchup has reached 68 points or less in each of the last three meetings, with the Rebels winning two of those games (both here at home). Note that UNLV ranks a respectable 125th in the country in terms of strength of schedule. With a tough three-game stretch on the road on deck, earning a victory here is critical for the Rebels. While they're just one game removed from a seven-point loss against San Diego State, I think it's actually impressive that they 'only' lost by seven despite shooting sub-30% from the field. Give them credit for holding each of their last three opponents to 36% or worse shooting. If UNLV can find a way to push the pace a little bit and make the Bulldogs uncomfortable, I'm confident it can find success on Friday night. Take UNLV (10*). |
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01-14-22 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 223.5 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. After being held down offensively (relatively speaking) in consecutive games against top-level defensive teams in the Bucks and 76ers, I look for the Hornets to bust out in this one (noting that they're coming off consecutive sub-110-point scoring performances for the first time since mid-December). Charlotte has scored 120 and 106 points in the first two meetings in this series this season. Note that on the latter occasion, the Hornets shot a miserable 12-of-41 from three-point range. Perhaps they could be excused for that performance as they were playing their third game in five nights on the road. The Magic aren't exactly shooting the lights out right now but they are expected to get an offensive boost with the likely return of Jalen Suggs on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 48-30 when the Magic seek revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons and Charlotte just happens to be one of the most forgiving defensive teams in the league, giving up an average of 115.5 points per game. The last time these two teams squared off here in Charlotte, they combined to score 234 points last May. There's little reason to expect the Hornets to 'manage' this game and perhaps hold a little something back as they will have the entire weekend off before heading to New York for a date with the Knicks on Monday. Charlotte averages 118.3 points per game when playing before two or more days off this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-14-22 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 210 | 99-111 | Push | 0 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Perhaps we're seeing a bit of an overreaction in the betting markets here after the 76ers were held to just 98 points in a losing effort at home against the Hornets two nights ago, combined with the fact that the 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this series. Keep in mind, each of those three matchups were played in Boston. The last time these two teams met in Philadelphia they combined to score 232 points last January. Interestingly, the 'over' is 29-17 the last 46 times the Celtics have been in the role of underdog with that situation producing an average total of 226.7 points. Despite that poor offensive showing against the Hornets, the 76ers have still managed to score 110 points or more in seven of their last eight contests. Celtics road games have been considerably higher scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of 216.3 points. Take the over (9*). |
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01-13-22 | St. Mary's v. Pepperdine +13 | 77-62 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pepperdine plus the points over St. Mary's at 11 pm et on Thursday. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series to find the last time either team was able to win by a double-digit margin, yet that's the pointspread range in this one. The Gaels check in off a tough nine-point loss at BYU two nights ago and may not have an easy time getting up for this road affair against a 6-12 Pepperdine squad. They should be careful, however, noting that the Waves got the better of them in a 60-58 win on this floor last season. While Pepperdine has gone a miserable 2-7 ATS on the road this season, it has more than held its own here at home where it is 5-2 ATS in lined contests. It's the defensive end of the floor where the Gaels obviously hold a significant advantage in this game. With that being said, coming off that low-scoring 52-43 loss to BYU it's worth mentioning that St. Mary's is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 55 points or less, actually outscored by an average margin of 6.4 points in that spot. Take Pepperdine (9*). |
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01-13-22 | Thunder +9.5 v. Nets | 130-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Nets are coming off a blowout win over the Bulls last night. Now they're back home, where they've been an awful bet this season to host one of the best spread-covering teams in the league, but one that carries a poor reputation in the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are coming off a season-high 118-point performance in a narrow loss to the Wizards two nights ago. While they've lost five games in a row, they've actually gone 4-1 ATS over that stretch. To that point, they're 5-14 SU on the road this season but 12-7 ATS. The Nets are 3-16 ATS as a home favorite this season and playing on the second of back-to-back nights, off a lopsided win, against a non-conference opponent that doesn't draw much inspiration in the Thunder, I have a hard time buying into them as a near-double-digit favorite. Take Oklahoma City (9*). |
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01-13-22 | Thunder v. Nets UNDER 219.5 | 130-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. This total has been rising since opening, not a big surprise with the Nets having scored 138 points in a win in Chicago last night while Oklahoma City comes off a season-high 118-point effort in Washington two nights ago. Keep in mind, we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results from the Thunder since December 26th and 28th while the Nets haven't posted back-to-back 'over' results since December 25th and 27th. Here, I'll also note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Thunder seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent this season, which is the case here after the Nets took the first meeting this season 120-96 in Oklahoma City back in November. That situation has produced a ridiculously-low average total (by today's NBA standards) of just 195.0 points. The 'under' is also 34-20 with the Nets playing at home off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 218.4 points in that spot. Take the under (8*). |
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01-13-22 | Wolves +6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up for the Timberwolves. They're coming off a loss as a favorite in New Orleans two nights ago, snapping their four-game winning streak. Note that Minnesota is 23-12 ATS in its last 35 games coming off a road loss, as is the case here, outscored by just 3.8 points on average in that spot. It may come as a surprise but despite their 9-11 SU record on the road, the Wolves have gone 13-7 ATS. That's despite all of their key contributors in and out of the lineup due to illness or injury. The Grizzlies are in high favor right now, having won seven straight games, culminating with a 116-108 win over the mighty Warriors two nights ago. Not surprisingly, bettors are lining up to back them on Thursday and we've seen this line rise by a full point since opening (at the time of writing). I like the Grizzlies, but I like backing them a whole lot more in the role of underdog or short favorite. That's simply not the case here, noting as well that they lost the most recent meeting in this series by 43 points back in late November and their last two wins over the T'Wolves have come by relatively short margins of seven and four points. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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01-13-22 | Florida International +16.5 v. UABĀ | 56-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida International plus the points over UAB at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This is just too many points to be giving a 10-5 Florida International squad that has bounced back just fine following a dismal 2020-21 campaign. While the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in true road games this season, those four spread losses have come by a combined 6.5 points. They actually haven't managed to cover the spread in any of their last seven contests - a big reason why we're working with an inflated number here as bettors have seemingly jumped at the opportunity to lay the points with UAB (the line has risen considerably since opening). UAB checks in 10-4 ATS in lined games this season but it hasn't faced a tough schedule by any means, checking in ranked 282nd in strength of schedule according to KenPom. There are a couple of reasons why I believe the Panthers can give the Blazers a run in this one. First of all, FIU poses a different sort of challenge than what UAB has been accustomed to facing as it hoists up 30 three-point attempts per game this season (UAB has faced an average of 20). The Panthers have done a nice job of distributing the basketball as well, interestingly they've 16 assists per game - two more than UAB despite making an average of four fewer field goals per contest. I don't see this situation setting up all that differently than when the Blazers suffered a two-point loss against San Francisco earlier this season and then returned home and beat East Tennessee State by a modest 14-point margin. Here, we find the Blazers back home off a stunning upset loss against Rice. They'll simply be looking to get back to their winning ways with margin of victory being of little consequence. FIU boasts plenty of returning talent from the team that beat UAB by 25 points (albeit at home) last season. Take Florida International (8*). |
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01-13-22 | Detroit +1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Horizon League Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over IUPU-Fort Wayne at 7 pm et on Thursday. We've seen a considerable line move toward Fort Wayne and why not? After all it is coming off consecutive road wins over Youngstown State and Robert Morris and has actually won five games in a row ATS. Let's not get too carried away though as Fort Wayne checks in ranked a miserable 325th in strength of schedule according to KenPom. While Detroit hasn't exactly faced a who's who of the country's best teams, it does rank considerably higher than Fort Wayne in that department at 180th. Detroit has played just one game since the holiday break, securing a 25-point win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee last Friday. The Titans are 5-1 SU and ATS over their last six contests and perhaps present a bit of a 'shock to the system' for the Fort Wayne defense here, noting that Detroit averages a whopping 28 three-point attempts per game this season. I don't anticipate much different that we saw in this matchup last year, when Detroit knocked down 28 three-pointers on its way to 82-72 and 83-56 victories over Fort Wayne. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-12-22 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 231.5 | Top | 116-125 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and the second in a little over a week. Last week's game went the Lakers way by a 122-114 score in Los Angeles. Naturally, that high-scoring 'over' result is leading to a slightly higher posted total for this one, but I believe it's the wrong move. While the Lakers have not surprisingly been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, they've also been a stronger defensive team - at least from a points per game allowed perspective. The 'under' checks in a profitable 9-7 in their 16 road contests to date, including a matchup between these same two teams here in Sacramento back in November that totalled just 209 points. The Kings have seen the 'under' cash at a 15-9 clip at home this season and enter this game playing a rather uneven brand of offensive basketball, having scored 102, 111, 88 and 108 points over their last four games with the 'under' cashing in three of those contests. The Lakers have of course seen the 'over' cash in three consecutive high-scoring affairs but I do think we have a 'catalyst for change' at play here as they hit the road, and do so off a disappointing loss against the Grizzlies on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 24-12 in the Lakers last 36 road games when coming off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 215.3 points. The 'under' is a perfect 9-0 in the Kings last nine games when coming off a game in which they covered the spread but failed to win outright, which is the situation here off Monday's narrow home loss to the Cavs. Take the under (10*). |
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01-12-22 | Maryland +6 v. Northwestern | Top | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Maryland plus the points over Northwestern at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not buying into the considerable line move here as I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair between these two teams, both coming off three consecutive losses and both off hard-fought losses against seemingly superior in-conference opponents. Note that the Terps have faced the 43rd toughest schedule in the nation to date according to KenPom while Northwestern, picked by many to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten standings at the outset of the season, checks in ranked 178th in strength of schedule. Maryland has had an issue with turning the ball over this season but has cleaned that up a bit lately, with 12 or fewer turnovers in four straight games (after a stretch of 14 or more in four consecutive contests). Of course, this is an in-season revenge game for Maryland after it dropped a 67-61 decision at home against Northwestern back on December 5th. The underdog has delivered the cash in three straight meetings in this series while Maryland has come away victorious in five of its last six trips to Northwestern. Here, we'll also note that the Terps are an impressive 14-2 ATS the last 16 times they've come off three or more consecutive losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 12.9 points on average in that spot. Take Maryland (10*). |
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01-12-22 | LSU +2.5 v. Florida | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on LSU plus the points over Florida at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not ready to buy into the Gators being favored in this game, even with Xavier Pinson sidelined for LSU. Florida has managed just three victories in its last eight games and those came against the likes of North Florida, South Florida and Stony Brook. The Gators stepped up in class twice last week and gave up 83 and 85 points in consecutive losses against Alabama and Auburn. LSU has just one loss on its resume - that coming in a game where it shot a miserable 28.6% from the field on the road against aforementioned Auburn. After dropping each of its last two meetings with Florida over the last two years, it obviously has a lot to prove in this contest. The Tigers have faced the tougher schedule of the two teams this season and I like the way the numbers stack up in their favor here as well. Of note, the Tigers allow two more made three-pointers per game than the Gators, but also face 11 additional attempts per contest. Similarly, they turn the ball over once more per game but also play at a faster pace four more field goal attempts per game than the Gators. While LSU enters this contest absolutely locked in defensively, Florida has allowed two of its last three opponents to shoot 51.9% or better from the field. Take LSU (8*). |
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01-11-22 | Illinois v. Nebraska +13.5 | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nebraska plus the points over Illinois at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions but I don't expect the Cornhuskers to go away quietly at home on Tuesday night. While they do check in having lost three games in a row but have actually managed to go 3-1 ATS over their last four contests. Illinois is the superior team on paper, there's no question about that, and the Illini have faced the 41st-toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom. However, it's not as if Nebraska has been facing cupcake opponents - the Huskers are top-80 in the nation in terms of strength of schedule. Illinois has relied heavily on the three-ball to support its offense this season but that's nothing out of the ordinary for Nebraska as it has faced a whopping 28 three-point attempts per game this season (Illinois averages 26). Note that both teams average an identical number of free throw attempts per game while Nebraska actually turns the ball over two fewer times while forcing five additional turnovers per contest compared to the Illini. The last meeting in this series went the Illini's way by 16 points, however Nebraska is actually 2-1 SU in the last three matchups between the two teams in Lincoln with its lone loss coming by just five points last season. Take Nebraska (9*). |
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01-11-22 | Iowa State v. Kansas -11.5 | 61-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Iowa State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The bloom appears to be off the rose, so to speak, for the Iowa State Cyclones, who have now dropped two of their last three games following a perfect 12-0 start to the season. We've seen this line move a couple of points in their favor but I believe it's the wrong move. Kansas is coming off a disappointing loss of its own, falling by eight points at Texas Tech on Saturday. There's really no harm in an early conference loss for a team like the Jayhawks that of course has national title aspirations. When these two teams met on this floor last season, Kansas was favored by 16.5 points and won by 33. The Jayhawks also took their road matchup against the Cyclones by 14 points, covering the -11.5 point spread. You would have go to back six meetings to 2019 to find the last time Iowa State was remotely competitive in this matchup. Yes, the Cyclones got off to a tremendous start this season but their 212th-ranked strength of schedule (according to KenPom) leaves a lot to be desired. By contrast, Kansas has faced the nation's 31st toughest schedule. The Jayhawks have an embarrassment of riches in terms of depth and talent and I expect that to shine through on Tuesday. Take Kansas (9*). |
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01-11-22 | Suns v. Raptors +4.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns simply haven't been the same spread-covering juggernaut they were last season, checking in at 30-9 SU but just 21-18 ATS so far this season. They enter Tuesday's matchup in Toronto having gone just 4-5 ATS over their last nine games and an even 9-9 ATS over their last 18 contests. The Raptors on the other hand have reeled off six consecutive wins and own a terrific 12-3 ATS mark over their last 15 games. There was a sense of 'here we go again' in Toronto early in the campaign following last year's championship hangover, but credit the Raps for coming together and turning things around, despite plenty of key absences along the way. They're relatively healthy now and will have revenge on their minds here after getting swept in the two-game season series with the Suns last year. Keep in mind, they were competitive in both games, losing by four points here at home and eight on the road. Phoenix managed to go 2-0 ATS in those contests thanks to laying 3.5 points or less in both. While most will expect a big bounce-back performance from the Suns off Sunday's blowout loss at home against the Heat, I'm no so easily convinced. They've shot 41.1% or worse from the field in three of their last five games and have also inexplicably allowed two of their three highest point totals of the season over that stretch. After this game the Raptors will have a couple of days off before a five-game road trip. While I'm not going to make a habit of fading the Suns (we've actually cashed numerous tickets in support of them this season), I do think this is a favorable spot to do so. Take Toronto (10*). |
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01-11-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 216.5 | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. One of my favorite situations is in play on Tuesday night in Washington, noting that the last 29 times the Wizards have played at home off an 'under' result, we've seen an average total of 234.1 points scored. In fact, we haven't seen the Wiz post consecutive 'under' results since November 20th and 22nd. The Thunder have been held to 97 points or less in five of their last six games but I see this as a solid 'get right' opportunity for them offensively, especially after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to just eight points on a woeful 2-of-14 shooting against Denver last time out. The best players tend to bounce back and I expect that from SGA here. Note that despite their recent stretch, the Thunder do average 107.0 points and an average total of 218.1 total points when coming off a game in which they were held to 100 points or less, as is the case here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 200 points. That helps to keep this total in check, noting that last year's two meetings saw closing totals of 233.5 and 232.5 in games that reached 226 and 238 total points. Take the over (9*). |
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01-11-22 | George Washington +17 v. VCU | Top | 57-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Atlantic-10 Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on George Washington plus the points over VCU at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We've cashed a couple of tickets with VCU this season, including one in its thrilling buzzer-beating road win over Dayton last week. The Commodores are undoubtedly playing terrific basketball right now but I see this as a flat spot in an early-week home game against lowly George Washington. The Colonials were picked by many to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic-10 standings this season and to no one's surprise, that's where they're wallowing as we head into mid-January. With that being said, they have managed to go 2-1 over their last three games and it shouldn't be difficult to get up and bounce back from a 25-point beatdown at home against Dayton last time out. While VCU is coming off a 19-point rout of La Salle, it isn't really built to run away and hide from teams, noting that it averages just 53 field goal attempts and five made three-pointers per game this season. The Commodores turned in a near-perfect game last time out against the Explorers, shooting better than 51% from the field, turning the ball over only eight times while forcing 19. That wrapped up a perfect 2-0 road trip. You can understand why returning home to host a team like George Washington in a 'name-your-score' type of game may not be all that inspiring. Keep in mind, George Washington managed to stay comfortably inside the pointspread in last year's lone meeting, dropping a seven-point decision at home as an 11.5-point underdog. Noting that VCU does turn the ball over two more times per game than GWU and also sends opponents to the free throw line an average of 18 times per contest, not to mention the fact that the Commodores have a clear look-ahead with a trip to St. Bonaventure on deck later this week, I like the Colonials to stay inside the lofty number on Tuesday. Take George Washington (10*). |
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01-10-22 | Jazz v. Pistons +12 | Top | 116-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The 'foul mood' narrative is weighing heavily with a lot of bettors in this one as the Jazz enter this game off back-to-back losses in Toronto and Indiana. We've seen the line shift a point-and-a-half in favor of Utah over the course of the morning and I believe it's gotten out of hand. As bad as the Pistons have been this season, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 5.7 points here at home. They come into this game having won three of their last five games overall and have gone an even 6-6 ATS over their last 12 contests. As for the Jazz, they're missing a number of key contributors and not only enter off consecutive SU losses, but have gone a miserable 3-10 ATS over their last 13 games. In three meetings since the start of 2020, the Jazz's largest margin of victory in this series has been 12 points, and that came at home in a game where they were favored by 13. The last time Utah played here in Detroit it was favored by just 8.5 points and won by 10 last January. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 226 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers defense has been dreadful over the course of their current 6-2 'over' run but they have an opportunity to perhaps catch their breath here as the Grizzlies stay in L.A. after brushing aside the Clippers yeterday afternoon and play their fifth game in the last seven nights, having gone a perfect 4-0 in their previous four, part of an eight-game winning streak. Not only are the Grizzlies likely road weary (their last four games have been played in four different cities), they're also dealing with some key injuries and absences. They recently welcomed Dillon Brooks back to the lineup but he was forced to leave yesterday's game with an ankle injury. Ja Morant sat out yesterday's game with a thigh injury but could return tonight. Regardless, it's worth noting that the Grizzlies have held 20 of their last 22 opponents to 108 points or less. The two teams that scored more than that were the Suns and Warriors and even in those games the Grizzlies only allowed 113 points. After the first meeting between these two teams totalled 239 points back in October, their two matchups in December reached identical totals of 203 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games following six or more consecutive victories while the 'under' is 26-9 in the Lakers last 35 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Ohio State at 5:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect points to come at a premium in this Big Ten matchup with Northwestern coming off consecutive home losses in-conference and Ohio State fresh off a 16-point dismantling at the hands of Indiana on the road. Note that the Buckeyes have turned in two of their best defensive efforts of the season when coming off their two previous losses this season, holding Duke to 38.5% shooting following a loss to Florida and Seton Hall to 38.1% shooting after a loss against Xavier. Note that Ohio State checks in 49th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Northwestern has given up 70+ points in consecutive games for the first time this season but still ranks top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I don't expect Ohio State to run away and hide in this one, noting that the Buckeyes sit 249th in the country in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). While Northwestern generally likes to push the pace a little bit, I'm not sure it will be afforded the opportunity to do so against the Buckeyes. The Wildcats have been able to force the tempo in large part thanks to facing the nation's 265th toughest schedule. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Wildcats have played on the road following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 126.3 points. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 89-60 with the Buckeyes playing at home coming off an ATS loss, which is also the situation here, producing an average total of 133.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-22 | Appalachian State +2.5 v. Troy State | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State plus the points over Troy at 5 pm et on Saturday. We won with Appalachian State in an arguably tougher matchup two nights ago as the Mountaineers went on the road and upset South Alabama by a 72-64 score - their second straight in-conference victory. They won that game despite not getting a single point from Justin Forrest in his first game back off the Covid list. I would certainly anticipate a sharper performance from Forrest in particular in Saturday's game. As we noted on Thursday, the Mountaineers have faced a very difficult schedule this season - ranking 78th in the nation in strength of schedule according to KenPom. Contrast that with Troy, which checks in 298th in that department yet has only managed three more victories than Appalachian State. I like the discipline we've seen from the Mountaineers this season as they only send opponents to the free throw line an average of 11 times per game. They also average five fewer turnovers per game than Troy, despite a similar number of possessions per contest. The Trojans have forced an additional five turnovers per game compared to the Mountaineers but again, strength of schedule factors in. Troy swept the season series between these two teams last year. Prior to that, Appalachian State had taken four of the last five meetings and we only have to go back three meetings at Troy (to December of 2019) to find the last time the Mountaineers won a game outright on this floor. Take Appalachian State (10*). |
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01-07-22 | Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 216 | 114-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Portland at 10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Cavs most recent game against the Grizzlies on Wednesday (most actually won as the total shifted downward after posting) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Cleveland heads on the road to face Portland on Friday. The Blazers couldn't have performed much better offensively two nights ago against Miami but still fell by a 115-109 score (we won with the Heat in that game). In that contest, the Blazers knocked down 15 three-pointers and made a whopping 36 trips to the free throw line - yet still scored 'only' 109 points. I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Blazers top two scoring options, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum of course remain sidelined. Defensively, the Blazers have been a wreck. The good news here is, they catch the Cavs a little out of sorts offensively, having scored 104, 93, 118, 108 and 106 points over their last five games. Going all the way back to mid-November, their last 10 road games have totalled 208, 210, 196, 217, 216, 229, 209, 212, 212 and 203 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 211 total points back in November and that was with the two teams at full strength. Take the under (9*). |
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01-07-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 118-134 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Something has to give in this one as the Hawks try for their first winning streak since reeling off seven consecutive victories back in November while the Lakers try to post a fourth straight win for the first time this season. On a positive note for the Hawks, they have now won two of their last three games for the first time since that aforementioned winning streak, despite dealing with a multitude of Covid and injury-related absences. Trae Young is currently questionable to play on Friday due to back soreness. While I do expect him to play, I still like backing the Hawks in an underdog role here even if he doesn't (albeit with a lesser wager depending on the number). On the two previous occasions where the Lakers posted three straight wins this season they went on to lose their next game outright as a 10.5-point home favorite against Oklahoma City and as a 1.5-point road favorite against Minnesota. The Lakers are just 11-24 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 1.4 points on average. Worse still, they're a woeful 2-12 ATS when coming off consecutive home wins over the same period, outscored by an average margin of 3.2 points in that situation. While the Hawks are a losing team on the road this season at 9-11 SU, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 1.8 points in those games. The Lakers on the other hand are 13-10 SU at home but have actually been outscored by 0.3 points on average - a big reason why they're a miserable 8-15 ATS here in Los Angeles this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-07-22 | Brown +3.5 v. Harvard | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Ivy League Game of the Year. My selection is on Brown plus the points over Harvard at 7 pm et on Friday. Brown enters this game on the heels of four straight losses including a heartbreaking 77-73 near-miss on the road against Penn last Sunday. The Bears have faced the 111th toughest schedule in the country so far this season according to KenPom while Harvard has faced the 303rd. So it's not surprising that the Crimson check in sporting the better overall record (although not by much at 7-4 compared to 8-8). Here, Harvard will be taking the floor in game action for the first time since December 21st. The 'rest vs. rust' conversation comes up yet again and here I think Brown has the distinct advantage having played three times (and against tough competition including road games at Syracuse and Maryland) since Harvard last played. While a lot of bettors will likely use the 'triple-revenge' angle in support of Harvard here, I'm not sure that plays a major factor. Both teams experienced plenty of roster turnover. Speaking of that, I'm high on Brown freshman Nana Owuse-Anane, who has contributed 6.8 points per game and 3.7 rebounds per game in 18.5 minutes on average so far this season. Loyola-Chicago transfer Paxson Wojcik is also a notable newcomer. It's worth pointing out that he failed to knock down a single three-pointer over the last two games (he had made 12 over his previous five games) yet the Bears were right there in contention for the ATS cover in each of those contests. I'm anticipating a solid bounce-back effort from him tonight. The Crimson rely heavily on the three-ball in their offense, averaging 10 made threes per game this season. Brown on the other hand has done an excellent job of limiting its opponents effectiveness from long range, allowing just six made threes per game on the road (on 18 attempts). While Brown has been shooting much better lately following a shaky start to the season (that had a lot to do with the aforementioned difficult, front-loaded schedule), Harvard has shot worse than 38% in three of its last four contests. Finally, I'll note that Harvard has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six lined games off consecutive home wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.4 points. Take Brown (10*). |
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01-06-22 | Washington State +2 v. Colorado | 78-83 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Colorado at 9 pm et on Thursday. To say that Colorado has owned this series here in Boulder would be a massive understatement. However, the Buffaloes home dominance over Washington State over the years shouldn't mean much to the Cougars core which is largely made up of transfers into the program this year with Michael Flowers, Tyrell Roberts and Noah Williams leading the way. Washington State has faced the tougher schedule than Colorado according to KenPom this season and has arguably put up better numbers at both ends of the floor. I'm confident that we'll see the Cougars really push the Buffaloes in this one, noting that we've seen Washington State pick up the tempo a little more than in recent years, to some considerable success with eight wins in its first 13 games this season. While the 'rest vs. rust' conversation could be had when it comes to both teams, at least Wazzu has been able to play four games since the 11th of December. Colorado, on the other hand, will be taking the floor in game action for just the third time since December 10th. Take Washington State (9*). |
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01-06-22 | Pistons v. Grizzlies UNDER 220 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We just missed with the 'over' in the Grizzlies most recent game in Cleveland two nights ago (most actually cashed in that game as the total shifted throughout the day). Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the spot sets up perfectly to do so on Thursday night. I came close to playing the 'under' in the Pistons game in Charlotte last night but wisely laid off as that game sailed 'over' the number. The Pistons had actually been playing well defensively going into that contest but ran into a buzzsaw against a Hornets squad coming off a tough loss in Washington. Here, I think we can anticipate the Grizzlies 'managing' this game with a two-game trip to Los Angeles on deck (and playing their third game in four nights with a number of key contributors likely still sidelined due to illness/injury). The Pistons have scored 117, 115 and 111 points over their last three games although that first result was aided by overtime. They still average just over 101 points per game on the road this season, however, and put up only 95 points in their lone visit to Memphis last season. Note that the 'under' is 11-1 in the Pistons last 12 games after giving up 130+ points, as is the case here while the 'under' checks in a perfect 8-0 in the Grizzlies last eight home games following four or more consecutive victories. Take the under (9*). |
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01-06-22 | Appalachian State +6.5 v. South Alabama | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Appalachian State plus the points over South Alabama at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Mountaineers in this one as they take on South Alabama on Thursday night. Appalachian State is hoping to have one of its top scoring options Justin Forrest back for this game after he missed the last two contests due to Covid protocols. Even if he can't go, I still like Appalachian State's chances of keeping this game competitive. Note that home court hasn't meant a whole lot in this series with the road team winning six of the last seven meetings outright. The Mountaineers have dropped the last two meetings in this series by a combined four points. South Alabama is off to a terrific 10-4 start this season but it's worth noting that the Jaguars check in just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 lined games in the role of favorite. Also note that Appalachian State sits inside the top-90 in the country in terms of strength of schedule according to KenPom while South Alabama sits 179th. Noting that the Mountaineers allow just one more made three-pointer per game on four additional attempts while also holding opponents to just 12 free throw attempts per contest compared to South Alabama's 15, I look for Appalachian State to take this one down to the wire. Take Appalachian State (8*). |
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01-06-22 | Southern Miss +4 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Southern Miss plus the points over UTSA at 8 pm et on Thursday. Southern Miss has plenty of returning experience on this year's team but isn't expected to make much noise in C-USA. Things have generally played out accordingly so far as the Golden Eagles check in 4-8 on the season, coming off six consecutive losses. With that being said, I see this as a winnable game. Note that while Southern Miss has only faced the 216th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, UTSA ranks 335th in that department. A closer inspection of the Roadrunners seven wins finds that they've defeated the likes of Trinity College (non-Div. 1), 5-11 Denver, 1-10 IUPUI (by three points at home), 2-13 Lamar, St. Mary's-Texas (non-Div. 1), Sam Houston State (their lone credible win) and Dallas Christian (non-Div. 1). It's not as if UTSA has been overly impressive in its wins - in fact, it checks in just 4-6 ATS in lined games this season. I do think that Southern Miss can frustrate UTSA with it's methodical pace, much like it did against East Carolina in a narrow one-point loss last time out. Interestingly, while the Golden Eagles average five fewer three-point attempts per game than the Roadrunners, they only make one fewer on average. Despite attempting 10 fewer field goals per contest, Southern Miss actually averages one more assist per game than UTSA. The Roadrunners have taken three straight meetings in this series although both of last year's matchups were close, with each game decided by exactly six points. Note that prior to those three consecutive wins, UTSA hadn't previously managed to win back-to-back meetings in the first 10 matchups all-time in this series. Take Southern Miss (10*). |
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01-06-22 | Celtics v. Knicks +1.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Knicks in the first meeting between these two teams way back in October before passing on their next matchup in December - a game New York lost by seven points in Boston. Here, I won't hesitate to get behind the Knicks again as they look to build some positive momentum off a win over the Pacers two nights ago. New York will be without both Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose for this one. I don't mind that as it allows Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett to step up, just as they did all last season. The Celtics have been a disappointment for the most part again this season and we just cashed a ticket fading them in their outright loss to the Spurs at home last night. Most will likely be looking to back Boston in this bounce-back spot but I don't see it. Note that the Celtics are just 7-12 SU on the road this season and check in a miserable 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games against Atlantic Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points. New York on the other hand is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take New York (10*). |
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01-05-22 | Heat v. Blazers | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Often times we see teams rise to the occasion without their best players and I believe that will be the case with the Heat on Wednesday as they look to snap a two-game losing streak with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines. Of course, tonight's opponent has its own injury issues with both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum remaining out. The Blazers did step up on Monday, securing a wild 136-131 come-from-behind win over the Hawks with Anfernee Simons going off for 43 points. Don't count on a repeat performance here, noting that Portland has won just four of its last 18 games. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball than the Blazers right now as they've given up 130+ points in three of their last four games, allowing five straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the field. Even without Butler, the Heat still have Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro capable of stepping up and taking advantage of the Blazers dismal defense. Here, we'll note that Miami is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.7 points in that situation. Take Miami (10*). |
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01-05-22 | Spurs +8 v. Celtics | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I resisted the temptation to back the slumping Spurs catching a handful of points in Toronto last night as they dropped their fourth straight game with the loss coming in blowout fashion. I expect a much better performance from San Antonio on Wednesday as it goes up against a Celtics squad it has given plenty of problems, going 3-1 in the last four meetings with the lone loss coming by just three points. The Spurs are expected to have underrated star Dejounte Murray back from health and safety protocols for this game. All indications are that he could have returned in one of the last few games but the Spurs wisely decided not to rush him back. Boston is coming off consecutive wins to open its current homestand and will have Jayson Tatum back for this one. Note, however that the Celtics are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games following a home win, outscored by 1.2 points on average in that spot. They're also just 8-20 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.4 points on average in that situation. Take San Antonio (9*). |
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01-05-22 | VCU +3.5 v. Dayton | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on VCU plus the points over Dayton at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This line has shot up from its opener as bettors seem to be quick to back Dayton at home in this triple-revenge spot after dropping all three meetings against VCU last season. Keep in mind, the Flyers have actually managed to win only two of the last nine meetings in this series and both of those came when the Rams were in a down year in 2020 (Dayton was favored by 8.5 points in its home matchup against VCU that year). There's not a lot separating these two teams this season with the Rams entering with seven wins and Dayton checking in with eight. VCU has a nice upset win over Syracuse on its resume while Dayton has taken down Kansas and Virginia Tech but has also lost against the likes of Lipscomb and Austin Peay (both losses admittedly came at the outset of the season). VCU shouldn't be uncomfortable playing at Dayton's preferred slow pace in this one. I like the fact we're catching points with the Rams here noting that the last seven times we've seen one team favored by four points or less in this series, six of those contests have ultimately been decided by five points or less. We can expect another nip and tuck affair here with the total set in the 120's and I expect VCU to earn some extra possessions noting that they've forced nine more turnovers per game this season (and have faced the considerably tougher schedule according to KenPom - VCU ranks 49th while Dayton checks in 258th in strength of schedule). Take VCU (9*). |
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01-05-22 | DePaul +5 v. St. John's | Top | 84-89 | Push | 0 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on Depaul plus the points over St. John's at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. Depaul will be looking to snap its first losing streak of the season as it takes on St. John's on Wednesday night. The Blue Demons won't have a hard time getting up for this one after suffering a 17-point beatdown at the hands of Providence last time out. Prior to that, their other two losses this season came by identical four-point margins against quality opponents in Loyola-Chicago and Butler. St. John's is coming off a loss of its own, dropping a two-point decision against a disappointing Pittsburgh squad. It's worth noting that the Blue Demons send opponents to the free throw line five fewer times per game while also getting there one additional time compared to the Red Storm this season. They also turn the ball over two fewer times despite playing at a slightly slower pace. St. John's has been the slightly better three-point shooting team but has also been the weaker team defending the three. While Depaul's strength of schedule ranks a poor 268th in the country according to KenPom, St. John's has faced the nation's 347th toughest schedule. In other words, there's little separating these two squads yet the Red Storm are being asked to lay a handful of points. Note that home court has meant very little in this particular series lately with the road team taking three consecutive meetings and six of the last nine overall. Take Depaul (10*). |
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01-04-22 | Virginia +4 v. Clemson | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia plus the points over Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. When these teams last met just two weeks ago in Virginia, Clemson exacted revenge for last year's 35-point beatdown at the hands of the Cavaliers, securing a decisive 17-point victory. Now the shoe is on the other foot as Virginia looks for revenge, noting that the Cavaliers own a terrific 22-11 ATS mark under head coach Tony Bennett when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.9 points in that situation. Also note that the Cavaliers are 32-19 under Bennett as a road underdog. Clemson, meanwhile, checks in a miserable 3-11 ATS, outscored by 6.5 points on average, when coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Virginia (10*). |
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01-04-22 | Grizzlies v. Cavs OVER 218 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. With the Grizzlies riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 127, 114, 104, 118 and 118 points over that stretch it's going to take quite an effort to knock them off course. The Cavs check in having allowed 108, 110, 121 and 104 points over their last four contests so Memphis should have plenty of runway to keep rolling on Tuesday. With that being said, Cleveland has also scored 118 and 108 points in its last two games and as a short home favorite, isn't likely to back down from the challenge here. Note that the 'over' is 10-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road off a double-digit road win over the last two seasons, as is the case here following last night's rout of the Nets. That situation has produced an average total of a whopping 242.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 28-15 with the Cavs playing at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 220.0 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 253 points in Memphis back in October. Take the over (10*). |
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01-03-22 | Pistons v. Bucks -16 | 115-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Bucks have had no trouble brushing aside the Pistons in two previous meetings this season, holding them to 89 and 93 points in wins by 28 and 21 points. Let's take a closer look at that most recent matchup - a 114-93 Milwaukee win. In that game, the Pistons actually made double-digit three-pointers (11), got to the free throw line two more times and turned the ball over seven fewer times. Yet they still lost by 21 points. Here, the Pistons are catching the Bucks at absolutely the wrong time. Milwaukee has put up its three highest point totals of the entire season in its last three games, winning by 17, 18 and 23 points. There's no reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Bucks on Monday as they look to take advantage of a Pistons squad that is still missing a number of key contributors (it is expected to get a few players back for this game). Here, we'll note that Detroit is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a home win, outscored by an average margin of 14.0 points in that situation. The Bucks, meanwhile, check in 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games against division opponents, outscoring them by an average margin of 14.1 points. Take Milwaukee (9*). |
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01-02-22 | Magic v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | 111-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Boston at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Keeping in mind the Magic are just two games removed from their lowest scoring performance of the entire season while the Celtics posted their lowest point total of the season just two games back, not to mention the fact that these two teams combined to score only 171 points in their first meeting this season, I believe this total will prove too high. The Celtics caught the Suns flat-footed in a matinee affair in Boston on Friday, putting up 120 points in a double-digit win. They're still averaging just 107.5 points per game at home this season. The Magic, meanwhile, check in averaging just a shade over 103 points per contest on the road. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 15-5 with the Celtics playing in the role of favorite this season with that situation producing an average total of just 105.6 points. Take the under (9*). |
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01-02-22 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 139.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Northwestern at 2 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams have been filling up boxscores in the early going this season with Michigan State checking in with an 11-2 record and Northwestern sitting at 8-2. With both teams averaging just shy of 80 points per game I can understand why we're looking at a total in the high-130s on Sunday. I believe it will prove too high, however. This will be the toughest test either team has faced in the last month. I don't think we're going to see Michigan allow Northwestern to get out and push the pace as much as it would like in this home matchup. I do, however, believe that the Wildcats will be able to run their offense, noting that they're turning the ball over only nine times per game while Michigan State has forced just 11 turnovers per contest. While both teams have shot well, neither has put up over-the-top numbers in terms of three-pointers of free throws made per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-6 the last 23 times the Spartans have played on the road after scoring 75+ points in four straight games, as is the case here. Northwestern has had a tendency to struggle in these January Big Ten home games, averaging just 62 points per game while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven home tilts in the first month of the year. Take the under (10*). |
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01-01-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Pistons | 116-117 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Detroit at 7 pm et on Saturday. With Dejounte Murray expected to return from Covid protocol the Spurs are in a bounce-back smash spot against the undermanned Pistons on Saturday night. Note that San Antonio has gone 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games following a double-digit loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Pistons are just 25-40 ATS the last 65 times they've sought revenge for a same-season loss, which is the situation here after they were blown out in San Antonio on Boxing Day. While the Spurs have run into trouble over their last two games, those came against two elite teams in the Jazz and Grizzlies. Note that while they've posted a 7-10 SU record on the road this season, they've actually outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 points. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 217.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Three of the Bulls four highest scoring totals of the season have come in their last five games and they're fresh off a thrilling 108-106 win in Indiana yesterday. The fact that both the Bulls and Wizards are coming off 'under' results helps keep Saturday's total in a very reasonable range. Consider that these two teams are just one meeting removed from a game that totalled 263 points. Washington is just three games removed from its second-highest scoring total of the season. While it did allow just 93 points in its most recent game that came against an undermanned Cavs squad due to Covid protocols. Prior to that, the Wiz had given up 117, 117 and 119 points over their last three games. Here, we'll note that the last 28 times the Wiz have played at home off an 'under' result, they have seen an average total of 234.0 points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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01-01-22 | Creighton v. Marquette +1 | 75-69 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marquette plus the points over Creighton at 12 noon et on Saturday. It may be early but make no mistake, this is a big game for Shaka Smart's Marquette Golden Eagles. Missing Darryl Morsell due to Covid protocols, the Golden Eagles dropped their third game in a row, by eight points against UConn back on December 21st. While this is certainly a tough matchup against Creighton, I expect Marquette to rise to the occasion. The Blue Jays last played on December 17th, when they posted a stunning blowout win over Villanova. While Creighton is off to a fine start this season, it hasn't been all that consistent. Note that the Blue Jays have faced the nation's 131st toughest schedule this season according to KenPom. Marquette on the other hand has faced the 17th toughest. Take Marquette (8*). |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I'm not anticipating a track meet between the undermanned Clippers and the Raptors on Friday night. Note that Toronto will have most of its players back for this game after dealing with Covid protocols and that means plenty of shuffling with its rotation for head coach Nick Nurse. The Raps have had some terrific offensive outbursts lately but still average just north of 104 points per game at home this season. Meanwhile, the Clippers have allowed two of their three lowest point totals of the season over their last four games and they'll need to continue to play that style with Paul George and a host of other key contributors sidelined. The Clips average right around 103 points per game on the road this season with those contests averaging 207.1 total points. Los Angeles has shot 40.7% or worse in consecutive games while Toronto checks in having shot 43.7% or worse over its last two contests. Take the under (8*). |
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12-30-21 | St. Joe's v. Richmond -11.5 | Top | 83-56 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
A-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Richmond minus the points over St. Joseph's at 7 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a smash spot for the red hot Richmond Spiders. St. Joseph's comes in off three straight ATS wins. Note the last time it reeled off three consecutive ATS victories it followed that up with a 29-point thumping at the hands of Villanova. Richmond has won six games in a row, going 4-2 ATS over that stretch. The Spiders should offer a bit of a 'shock to the system' for the St. Joe's defense here, noting that they average 10 more three-point attempts per game (26) than the Hawks have faced (16) so far this season. The Spiders are also getting to the free throw line an average of two more times per game while turning the ball over two fewer times and forcing three more turnovers, all while facing a much tougher schedule (top-95 in the country according to KenPom compared to St. Joe's top-250). This is a revenge spot for Richmond after it dropped a stunning 76-73 decision at home last March (as a 15-point favorite). The Spiders clearly overlooked the Hawks on that occasion after beating them by 20+ points on the road earlier in the season. Take Richmond (10*). |
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12-29-21 | Mavs v. Kings +1.5 | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Dallas at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. This is an ideal revenge spot for the Kings after they suffered a six-point loss in Dallas back on Halloween. The Mavs are far from full strength now, continuing to deal with Covid protocols that have kept a number of key contributors out of the lineup, including Luka Doncic. The Kings went through similar issues but have come out on the other side and enter this game off a slump-busting 117-111 win over the Thunder. Dallas, meanwhile, is coming off a pop-up 15-point win over the reeling Blazers in Portland as it took full advantage of an awful defensive performance on the part of the home side. Here, I'm not sure it will be so fortunate. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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12-28-21 | Northwestern State v. Baylor UNDER 146 | Top | 68-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern State and Baylor at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are anticipating on Tuesday night. Northwestern State has faced an extremely tough schedule so far this season - the seventh-toughest in the country according to KenPom. It faces another very tough matchup on the road against defending national champion Baylor on Tuesday. I expect it to once again struggle offensively, noting that it checks in averaging just six made three-pointers and 13 free throw attempts per game this season. Baylor meanwhile allows an average of only five made threes per game at home while sending opponents to the free throw line just 13 times per game on average. The question becomes whether Baylor goes off offensively in this one. It scored 94 points in its most recent game against Alcorn State. Prior to that it had scored fewer than 80 points in five of its last six games. Note that the Bears average nine made threes per game and should approach that average here. However, they also average only 10 made free throws per contest. Despite facing a difficult schedule, Northwestern State has managed to force an average of 12 turnovers per game while Baylor has turned it over 10 or more times in six consecutive games heading into this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-28-21 | Wizards v. Heat -6 | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Washington at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Heat on Tuesday as they aim for their fourth consecutive victory. Both teams are dealing with Covid issues but who isn't these days? The Heat check in allowing just a shade over 100 points per game at home this season where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of around eight points. The Wizards, meanwhile, did register consecutive wins to wrap up their most recent road trip but remain just 9-11 away from home this season where they give up an average of over 108 points per game. The Heat have taken the last two matchups with the Wizards here in Miami by 27 and 15 points. Note that the Heat are coming off a 10-point win over the Magic last time out that saw them give up their lowest point total of the entire season (83 points). The Wiz haven't allowed fewer than 100 points in a game since way back on November 26th against Oklahoma City. Take Miami (9*). |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup on December 17th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. The Jazz are coming off a close call against the undermanned Mavs on Saturday. Three of their six highest point totals allowed this season have come over their last five games. Now they'll have to contend with a Spurs squad that has registered its three highest point totals of the season over its last five contests. Also note, however, that three of San Antonio's four highest point totals given up this season have also come in its last eight games. The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell for Monday's game (back) but he's been in and out of the lineup numerous times over the last couple of seasons so they're accustomed to playing without him. Outside of that, the Jazz and Spurs have remained two of the most unscathed teams when it comes to Covid protocols. Take the over (10*). |
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12-26-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 212 | 103-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Nuggets are just two games removed from their highest-scoring performance of the season but are coming off consecutive subpar showings, putting up only 94 and 107 points in back-to-back losses prior to the Christmas break. Here, I look for them to bounce back against the Paul George-less Clippers. Two of the Clippers six highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last four contests. Paul George is now sidelined indefinitely but the Clips should have Luke Kennard back in the lineup on Sunday. Here, they'll face a Nuggets squad that has consistently been allowing plenty of points, giving up 107 points or more in nine consecutive games. They've given up 115 points or more in three of their last four contests. Take the over (10*). |
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12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns -3.5 | 116-107 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Golden State at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. With Steph Curry going off on Thursday against the Grizzlies and the Suns failing to cover against the Thunder, I like the way this one sets up for Phoenix as these two Western Conference powerhouses do battle for the third time this season. The home team has won and covered the first two matchups (keep in mind, the Suns were without Devin Booker for the rematch in San Francisco). Phoenix enters this game on a serious roll, firing on all cylinders at both ends of the floor. I like the way Monty Williams managed Thursday's game as Devin Booker got truly stretched out for the first time since returning from injury, seeing 35 minutes of action (and pouring in 30 points). DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul played just 30 and 31 minutes, respectively. While most teams have dealth with Covid issues, the Suns have been relatively unscathed (fingers crossed that remains the case for Saturday). Here, we'll note that the Suns are 22-5 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.1 points. They're also an incredible 16-3 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over that same time frame, as is the case here, outscoring foes by 13.7 points on average. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 228.5 | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 33 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Phoenix at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: There are currently large discrepancies across several books with this total. I would anticipate playing it in the 218-220 range once the numbers settle out. Both of these teams scored exactly 113 points in Thursday's victories. The first two meetings in this series this season totalled just 200 and 214 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 when the Suns face Pacific Division opponents this season with those games totalling an average of only 209.8 points. The 'under' is also 35-16 in the Warriors last 51 road games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are rolling along right now but they're also in a stretch that will see them play a ton of basketball between now and January 8th. Here, they'll be playing their third game in five nights with a big game against the Warriors looming on Christmas Day. From there they'll play three more times before the end of the year before four games in the first eight days of January. Workload management becomes a factor and I think this is a contest where they can post a victory without going full throttle for four quarters - one of the few opportunities they may have to do so in the next couple of weeks. Oklahoma City is in a back-to-back spot off a big win over the Nuggets last night. Note that the Thunder have allowed two of their five lowest point totals of the season over their last two games. The 'under' is 9-5 in their 14 road games this season, largely due to their own awful scoring average of 96.9 points per game. Off three consecutive victories I'm just not sure we're going to see a peak offensive performance from the Thunder as they look ahead to the holiday break (their next game comes on Boxing Day). Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 214 | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Bucks rout of Houston last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well as they play the second of back-to-backs in Dallas on Thursday. Both teams are missing a number of key contributors - Dallas in particular. However, we're dealing with a considerably lower total than we would normally see in this matchup as a result (that goes without saying, I know). Note that the Bucks have allowed two of their five highest point totals of the season in their last five games alone. They welcomed back Khris Middleton from injury last night and ultimately put up a whopping 126 points. The Mavs have managed to score over 100 points in five straight games despite missing so many pieces. They scored 114 points in a double-digit win over Minnesota two nights ago with a similar lineup to the one we're likely to see on Thursday. Note, however that Dallas has also given up 107, 111 and 102 points over its last three games and doesn't figure to improve on those numbers as it takes a step up in class against the Bucks (Milwaukee has proven it is a top-flight team even without Giannis). Take the over (8*). |
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12-22-21 | Rockets v. Bucks OVER 224 | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll take a flyer on the 'over' in this one even with Christian Wood's status still up in the air due to a nagging knee injury. I believe there's a better chance that he plays than doesn't in this, the first of back-to-back games for the Rockets (I would expect the Rockets to play Wood against an undermanned Bucks team rather than on the second of back-to-backs in Indiana tomorrow). Note that the Rockets have allowed three of their five highest point totals of the season over their last five contests. The good news is, they have continued to produce offensively, scoring 103, 116 and 118 points in their last three games. As for the Bucks, they're expected to welcome back Khris Middleton on Wednesday night. You don't get worse offensively by adding a guy like Middleton to the lineup and while the Bucks were awful at that end of the floor last time out (90 points scored against Cleveland) they had put up 114 and 112 points in their previous two games. Note that the Bucks have given up three of their seven highest point totals of the season in their last four games alone. These two teams just met in Houston back on December 10th and combined to score 237 total points. Covid has obviously ravaged the Bucks roster since but I still think we see this one find its way 'over' the total (which has been adjusted downward since that last meeting). Take the over (8*). |
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12-22-21 | Hofstra +6 v. Monmouth | Top | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is Hofstra plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Monmouth Hawks are off to an incredible 12-0 ATS start this season but I think their run of perfection (ATS-wise at least) comes to an end on Wednesday. Hofstra is a quality squad that you just don't hear much about. The Pride have faced the 25th toughest schedule in the country (according to KenPom) but have managed to post a respectable 7-5 SU and 7-3 ATS (in lined games) overall record. They're limiting opponents to just 13 free throw attempts per game and a disciplined brand of defense will be key against a Monmouth squad that lives at the line, getting there 19 times per game this season. The Pride also turn the ball over three fewer times than the Hawks while forcing two additional turnovers per contest. Monmouth's offense has benefited from some sharp shooting from beyond the arc, particularly at home where it knocks down over 40% of its three-point attempts. Hofstra is capable of matching it in that regard, however, averaging 10 made threes per game. The Pride should offer the Hawks a bit of a change of pace here as they average 29 three-point attempts per game - five north of the 24 Monmouth has seen on average. These two teams met last December as well with Hofstra scoring 96 points in an eight-point road win (as a -1.5 favorite). Look for Speedy Claxton's squad to give red hot Monmouth a serious run on Wednesday night. Take Hofstra (10*). |
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12-21-21 | Suns -7 v. Lakers | Top | 108-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can't help but think this game means very little to the Lakers in the grand scheme of things. They know they can't match up with the Suns right now, not with Anthony Davis among those sidelined and Lebron James less than 100% healthy. The Suns welcomed Devin Booker back on Sunday and he filled the statsheet in only 26 minutes of action. While Booker was sidelined we saw the Suns continue to stack up wins with a number of other players picking up the scoring slack in his absence. I believe Phoenix is better for it. The Suns have been a terrific positive momentum play in recent years, going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following consecutive double-digit wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a miserable 20-36 ATS in their last 56 home games and limp into this game off a 1-2 road trip in which the only win came against a Luka-less Mavs squad. It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has also covered the spread in 11 straight meetings in this series. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-20-21 | Spurs v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 | 116-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The 'over' has cashed in three straight games involving the Spurs and we were on board for one of those contests on Saturday night in Utah. I look for that trend to reverse on Monday, however, as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a loss in Sacramento on Sunday. The Spurs are still averaging just north of 105 points per game on the road this season. They'll be up against a Clippers squad that will be in a foul mood after losing consecutive games in Utah and Oklahoma City. The Clips have been a different team at home, however, where they've gone 12-7, allowing just 103.7 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 10-3-1 clip. Note that the most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 198 points right here in Los Angeles back on November 16th. Take the under (8*). |
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12-20-21 | Oral Roberts -3 v. South Dakota | 82-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oral Roberts minus the points over South Dakota at 8 pm et on Monday. We won with Oral Roberts in its last game and I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here. ORU should offer a 'shock to the system' of sorts as it averages 33 three-point attempts per game (making 13 of those on average) while South Dakota has faced just 22 threes per contest. USD has lived at the free throw line where it averages 22 attempts per game but now faces an ORU squad that has limited opponents to only 12 attempts from the charity stripe per contest. Also note that while ORU ranks in the 130's in terms of strength of schedule (according to KenPom), USD checks in north of 300th in that department. Off consecutive home wins, I look for South Dakota to fall short here. Take Oral Roberts (8*). |
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12-19-21 | Blazers v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Portland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Thanks to their last meeting totalling just 216 points in Portland just last week we're dealing with a lower posted total in this quick rematch in Memphis. The last two meetings in this series have now stayed 'under' the total. That's worth noting as we haven't seen three consecutive matchups between these two teams go 'under' since way back in 2015. The Blazers finally snapped their losing streak with a 125-116 win over Charlotte last time out (we won with the 'over' in that game). They've scored at least 103 points in four straight games after being held to 94 points or less in three of their previous four contests. The Grizzlies have now given up 103 points or more in three of their last four games after holding five of their previous six opponents to 95 points or less. They're rolling offensively right now, posting two of their six highest point totals of the season in their last three contests. Take the over (9*). |
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12-19-21 | Dartmouth +12 v. California | Top | 55-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Darmouth plus the points over California at 4 pm et on Sunday. Dartmouth gave Stanford everything it could handle on Friday night before fading in overtime in an 11-point loss. The eventual lopsided nature of that game ends up providing us with some value here as the Big Green should bring plenty of confidence as a decided underdog at Cal on Sunday. Note that Dartmouth ranks 77th in the nation in terms of strength of schedule. Cal checks in 119th. Coming off consecutive blowout wins to open their four-game homestand it would be easy for the Bears to overlook the Big Green here. That would be a mistake as Dartmouth can hang thanks to its terrific outside shooting (10 made threes per game on 37.2% shooting from beyond the arc). The knock on the Big Green is their inability to get to the free throw line with much consistency (they average only 11 attempts per game). However, they do knock down nearly 75% of their free throw attempts and it's not as if Cal has been much better in that regard, averaging 15 trips to the charity stripe per contest. Cal also averages only five made threes per contest. Additionally, Dartmouth forces three more turnovers per game while the two teams are on par in terms of turnovers lost, averaging 12 each. While I'm not about to call for the outright upset, I do think Dartmouth can take this one down to the wire. Take Dartmouth (10*). |
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12-18-21 | Wizards v. Jazz OVER 223 | 109-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup last Saturday night in Washington, despite the Wizards contributing just 98 points. Here, I look for even more of a track meet - just as we saw with our 'over' play between the Spurs and Jazz in Utah last night - a game that totalled 254 points. Note that three of the Wizards six highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last four games. As for the Jazz, they've put up 136, 118, 123, 124 and 126 points in their last four games. This has certainly been a high-scoring series, especially in Utah where we've seen point totals of 246, 248 and 252 points in the last three meetings here. Take the over (9*). |
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12-18-21 | Northern Colorado v. Washington State OVER 141 | 56-82 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Northern Colorado and Washington State at 4 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has now cashed in six straight games involving Northern Colorado while Washington State has seen the 'under' cash in five of its last six contests. I expect the former to prevail on Saturday as the Bears and Cougars do battle in Pullman. Both defenses may be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' in this one as the two offenses live beyond the three-point line where Northern Colorado averages 26 attempts per game (and makes 10 of them on average) and Washington State puts up 25 per contest (making nine on average). Note that Northern Colorado has faced an average of 19 three-point shots per game while Washington State checks in at 20. Both teams have been terrific at getting to the free throw line and knocking their shots down when they do, noting that Washington in particular averages 21 free throws per game, making good on better than 75% of them. Washington State checks in having averaged over 64 field goal attempts per game over its last three and I don't think Northern Colorado will shy away from running with the Cougars here. Note that the Bears have shot better than 44% from the field in six straight games. Despite attempting fewer than 60 shots in each of their last three games they still managed to score 78, 74 and 76 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-21 | Rockets v. Pistons | 116-107 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Houston at 12:10 pm et on Saturday. With tipoff quickly approaching I'll keep my analysis for this play short. I understand the apprehension around backing the Pistons here as they haven't won a game since November 17th. Keep in mind, they've only been favored in one game since then. The Rockets had a brief surge but have now gone back in the tank, losers of four of their last five games. Here, we'll note that Houston 123, 113, 126, 124 and 116 points over its last five contests. Detroit, meanwhile, has posted two of its four highest scoring totals of the season over its last four games. Also note that Detroit has taken the last two meetings in this series. Take Detroit (8*). |
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12-17-21 | Hornets v. Blazers OVER 227 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is the highest total on Friday's NBA board (at the time of writing) and it is that way for a reason in my opinion. The Hornets are getting involved in track meet after track meet right now. Five of their nine highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last seven games. That's come at the expense of their defense, however, as they've also allowed six of their nine highest point totals of the season in their last nine games. Here, they'll be facing a desperate Blazers squad that has lost seven games in a row, despite welcoming Damian Lillard back to the lineup late last week. Since his return, they've scored 111, 107 and 103 points but lost all three games. After shooting a miserable 37.8% from the field in Wednesday's 10-point loss against Memphis, I expect a positive response here. Note that the 'over' is 14-4 the last 18 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 233.0 points. The 'over' is also 20-8 the last 28 times they've sought revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, with that spot producing an average total of 233.8 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-21 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State UNDER 119 | 53-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Mary's and San Diego State at 10 pm et on Friday. Now that this total has bumped back up a couple of points, we'll step in with a play on the 'under'. Needless to say, both teams have trended to the 'under' so far this season. St. Mary's has allowed just four of 12 opponents to score 60+ points. San Diego State has held four of its last five opponents to 58 points or less. Neither team has been adept from beyond the three-point line with St. Mary's averaging seven made threes per game but only five per game away from home. San Diego State averages just five made three-pointers per contest. While San Diego State does get to the free throw line 20 times per game, they might struggle to approach that average here given St. Mary's has been one of the most disciplined defensive teams in the country, giving up just 13 free throw attempts per contest. When these two teams met last season they combined to score 123 points. That was a 74-49 rout in favor of San Diego State. In what should be a far more competitive affair this time around and I'm anticipating a low-scoring contest. Take the under (8*). |
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12-17-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 225.5 | 128-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. This total continues to climb but I'm still not sure it has been set high enough. The Spurs have allowed two of their highest point totals allowed this season in their last three games. They also check in having scored 123, 112, 112 and 115 points over their last four contests. The Jazz, meanwhile, have posted their six highest point totals of the season over their last eight games. With that being said, they've also given up 105, 107, 130 and 103 points in their last four home games - that's despite being favored by 7.5 points or more in all four games. Take the over (8*). |
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12-16-21 | Dartmouth v. Stanford UNDER 131.5 | 78-89 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dartmouth and Stanford at 10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter this game trending strongly to the 'over' with Dartmouth's last four games going 'over' the total and Stanford's last three doing the same. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Dartmouth has been heavily reliant on the three-ball, knocking down an average of 10 made threes per game this season. It would be reasonable to question where the scoring will come from on Thursday, however, as the Big Green face a Stanford squad that boasts a ton of length on the perimeter and won't give up many easy looks. As a team, Dartmouth has shot just 42.8% from the field against opponents that allow an average of 45.8% shooting this season. On a positive note for Dartmouth, it is sending opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per game and while it has allowed a disappointing nine made threes per contest, Stanford doesn't figure to abuse it on the perimeter, noting that the Cardinal are averaging only six made threes per contest. Stanford has played a very disciplined brand of defense, allowing just 13 free throw attempts per game and here will face a Big Green squad that gets to the line only 10 times per contest. In what doesn't figure to be an ultra-competitive game with a whole lot of late fouling, I'm comfortable calling for this one to stay 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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12-16-21 | Wizards v. Suns -8.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Washington at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of six of their last seven games, going 0-6-1 ATS over that stretch. Thursday's date with the Suns, on a back-to-back no less, doesn't figure to be the 'get right' spot they're looking for. Phoenix is still without Devin Booker although his return is getting closer. The Suns keep rolling along regardless, winners of three of their last four games despite missing DeAndre Ayton for part of that stretch as well. Ayton returned on Tuesday and played a big part in a 111-107 overtime win in Portland. I don't expect the Suns to face nearly as much resistance against the Wiz on Thursday. Washington got 29 points from Deni Avdija and Montresz Harrell off the bench and Bradley Beal scored 30 points for the first time in five games (and only the fourth time this season) yet still lost by 14 points in Sacramento last night. Here, we'll note that Washington has allowed a whopping 120.9 points per game the last 51 times it has played consecutive road games, as is the case here as it continues a long six-game trip. The Suns, meanwhile, are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 home games following a win, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-16-21 | Jackson State v. Drake -15.5 | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Drake minus the points over Jackson State at 8 pm et on Thursday. Drake enters this game on an eight-game ATS losing streak and also off a 'real' loss, that coming by 10 points as a two-point underdog against Clemson on Saturday. Here, we're finally able to back the Bulldogs as a somewhat reasonably-priced favorites as their recent ATS struggles begin to factor into the line. Jackson State actually enters this game on a three-game ATS winning streak. There's no doubt it's been tough sledding for it to open the season having yet to play a home game. Note that two of its four lowest point outputs of the season have come in its last two contests. Jackson State has faced a tough schedule but it's still worth mentioning that it is getting to the free throw line only 11 times per game while sending opponents to the charity stripe a whopping 22 times per contest. Also note that it averages just six made three-pointers per game and turns the basketball over an average of 15 times. Drake obviously excels in all of those departments. The Bulldogs are getting to the free throw line seven more times on average, make an additional three made threes and turn the ball over four fewer times - all on a per game average. This is a chance for Drake to ramp up in its next two games against inferior opponents before wrapping up its pre-holiday slate with a tough game against St. Louis next week. Take Drake (10*). |
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12-16-21 | Texas-Arlington v. Oral Roberts -7.5 | 62-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oral Roberts minus the points over Texas-Arlington at 8 pm et on Thursday. Oral Roberts is coming off a disappointing loss at Missouri State to cap off a 1-2 road trip. It shouldn't come away all that discouraged, however, as it was only really expected to win one of those three games, and it did manage to go 2-1 ATS. I like the way ORU matches up against Texas-Arlington, which comes in riding its first winning streak of the season. Note that Texas-Arlington continues to struggle to find consistency at the offensive end of the floor, where it has been held to 45, 36 and 56 points on three occasions this season. It did manage to put up 71 points earlier in the campaign against a tough Abilene Christian squad but still lost by nine points despite shooting 47% from the field while its opponent shot 33%. A lack of defensive discipline has been a problem as Arlington sends opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game. It also turns the basketball over 17 times per game. Both are problem areas against an ORU squad that excels in both departments. ORU has allowed just 12 free throw attempts per contest and turns the ball over just 12 times per game. That's not to mention the fact that ORU has the potential to serve as a real 'shock to the system' for Arlington here as it hoists up a whopping 33 three-point attempts per game, knocking down 13 of them on average. Arlington averages only five made threes on 17 attempts per game this season. This one gets away from the Mavericks. Take Oral Roberts (9*). |
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12-15-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -9.5 | 103-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz are rolling right now, winners of seven straight games. Each of their five highest scoring performances of the season have come over that stretch. They've also held opponents to two of their six lowest point totals of the season over their last two contests. In other words, it's going to take quite a performance to take down Utah right now. I'm not convinced the undermanned Clippers are up for it. Los Angeles checks in 'fat and happy' off four consecutive wins - a streak that started with a double-digit victory in Portland. Still, the Clips are a losing team on the road this season where they average just 104.9 points per game. That's not going to cut it against a Jazz squad that averages over 116 points per contest on its home floor. This is Utah's first shot at Los Angeles after bowing out at the hands of the Clips in the playoffs last June. Expect the Jazz to make a statement. Take Utah (8*). |
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12-15-21 | Pacers v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo among others on Wednesday night. No one is going to feel sorry for the defending champs though. This game opens a six-game in 11-day stretch for Milwaukee. Off a double-digit loss in Boston two nights ago, I look for the Bucks to bounce back on their home floor. The Pacers check in having won three of their last four games. All three of those wins came in the role of favorite. They lost by two points against the Warriors two nights ago so most will expect them to have little trouble taking the undermanned Bucks down to the wire in this one as well. I'm not so sure. Milwaukee has owned the Central Division lately, going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 matchups against divisional foes. It has also taken six straight meetings against Indiana, winning all six of those games by at least nine points. Note that the Pacers check in a miserable 3-10 on the road this season. The fact that Giannis will miss this game isn't lost on the oddsmakers. The Bucks are still being favored for a reason in my opinion. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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12-15-21 | Middle Tennessee v. Ole Miss OVER 133.5 | 52-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Ole Miss at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair between the Blue Raiders and Rebels on Wednesday night. Middle Tennessee State is off to a terrific 8-2 start to the season. It should represent a bit of a shock to the system for the Ole Miss defense, noting that the Blue Raiders hoist up 26 three-point attempts per game and get to the free throw line an impressive 22 times per contest - a stark contrast to the type of teams the Rebels have faced so far this season (they've faced just 19 three-point attempts per game with opponents getting to the charity stripe 18 times per contest). The Rebels will certainly look to come out aggressive on offense after being held to a woeful 48 points in a blowout loss to underdog Western Kentucky on Saturday (we won with the Hilltoppers in that game). Perhaps Saturday's poor offensive performance could be considered an aberration as the Rebels were playing for the first time in a week. Note that they average 78 points per game on just shy of 45% shooting at home this season. In three previous road games, the Blue Raiders have given up nine made three-pointers per game while sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 25 times per contest. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-21 | Chattanooga v. Belmont UNDER 141 | 68-76 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chattanooga and Belmont at 6 pm et on Wednesday. This has the potential to be one of Wednesday's best games on the college hoops board and I'm confident we'll see it say 'under' the inflated total. Chattanooga hasn't faced the toughest schedule but it has taken care of business nonetheless, going 9-1 so far. The Mocs are doing an excellent job of holding down opposing offenses, limiting them to just 13 free throw attempts and six made three-pointers per game. They've also been able to run their offense more often than not, turning the basketball over just 10 times per contest. That's all while limiting opponents to just north of 38% shooting. Belmont is of course an elite team we'll likely be seeing plenty of come March. The Bruins have limited opponents to just 14 free throw attempts and have been a defensive force at home where they've held the opposition to 40.5% shooting and forced a whopping 19 turnovers per game. The 'under' has cashed in six of Belmont's last seven games overall and I see that trend continuing here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers OVER 219 | 111-107 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We're seeing quite an adjustment to the total in this matchup considering the first two meetings this season saw closing totals of 230 and 225 points and both found their way 'over' with 239 and 228 points scored. That of course has everything to do with the fact that the Suns are missing Devin Booker while the Blazers are without C.J. McCollum. I'm not sure it matters on Tuesday as I anticipate a high-scoring affair. Phoenix is coming off a loss in L.A. against the Clippers last night, scoring just 95 points in the process. We won with the 'under' in that game but I won't hesitate to go the other way here. Note that the Blazers just gave up 116 points against the T'Wolves here at home on Sunday. Five of their nine highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last nine games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 51-30 with the Blazers seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 232.1 points. Take the over (8*). |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns 111-105 loss to the Paul George-less Clippers last night. Phoenix has lost only five games all season but two of those have come in its last four games. Going back to the start of 2020, the home team has won six of the last seven meetings in this series. Phoenix won here in Portland by a 127-121 score last March but that was on the strength of a lights-out 59% shooting performance. The Suns of course won't have the services of Devin Booker once again for this one. DeAndre Ayton missed last night's game as well and is questionable to return here. Regardless whether he plays, I believe the Suns will be in tough trying to hold down a Blazers team that will be looking to snap a five-game losing streak. Damian Lillard returned to the lineup on Sunday but it wasn't enough as Portland fell by five points against Minnesota. Lillard posted a 24/11/6 line in 36 minutes on Sunday so he certainly seemed no worse for wear in his first game back. A lot of bettors got behind the Blazers in that contest and certainly came away discouraged. I believe it's the wrong move jumping ship here, however. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-14-21 | Monmouth v. Yale +1.5 | 69-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Monmouth Hawks are playing excellent basketball right now - in fact, they're a perfect 10-0 ATS this season. I think they're in for a tough matchup on Tuesday night against Yale, however. Note that the Hawks will be playing their second game in the last three days - a situation they've gone 1-8 ATS in the last nine times it has come up, outscored by 9.5 points on average. Yale is coming off a 14-point loss to Iona, which is notable as it hasn't dropped consecutive games since dropping back-to-back contests against Vermont and Southern Utah (both away from home) back in mid-November. The Hawks and Bulldogs have similar strength of schedules so far this season so it's worth noting that Yale has sent opponents to the free throw line three fewer times per game while also turning the ball over two fewer times and forcing three more turnovers per contest. Both teams like to play up-tempo but I think that favors Yale here at home, where it shoots just shy of 47% as a team and averages nine made threes per game. Take Yale (10*). |
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12-13-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. While the Suns have kept rolling without Devin Booker, they've been getting it done a little differently - or perhaps not as their defense has been outstanding going back to last season, it's just that it has sometimes taken a back seat to their terrific offense. Here, we'll note that the Suns have posted two of their five lowest-scoring outputs of the season over their last five games. The 'under' has cashed in five of their last six contests overall. Only once over their last five games have they given up more than 104 points - that coming in a rematch against the Warriors after defeating them three nights earlier. The Clippers have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games. Two of their nine lowest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last four contests. With Paul George likely to sit once again due to an elbow injury, I'm not sure they'll be interested in getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with the Suns. These two teams are certainly very familiar with one another, noting that this will be the 10th meeting in the series going back to the start of last season with five of the previous nine staying 'under' the total including three of four matchups here in Los Angeles. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rhode Island and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday. We won with Wisconsin-Milwaukee in its most recent game as it stayed inside the double-digit pointspread on the road against Pac-12 squad Colorado. Here, I'll call for another relatively low-scoring affair (that loss to Colorado totalled just 119 points) as the Panthers host Rhode Island on Monday. The Rams have seen the 'under' cash in three consecutive games. Interestingly, the Rams are attempting only 15 three-pointers per game and I don't anticipate shifting course here on Monday. What they have done is do an excellent job of getting to the free throw line, doing so 20 times per game. Here, though, they'll face a Wisconsin-Milwaukee squad that has done a good job of limiting opponents' attempts from the charity stripe, giving up just 15 per game. That's not to mention the fact that the Panthers are allowing opponents to shoot just 39.2% from the field. They haven't guarded the perimeter particularly well, but again they'll be facing a Rams squad that tends to operate lower in the half court. I don't anticipate either team looking to push the pace too much in this one, instead look for both sides to look to run their offense, ultimately eating clock and helping the final score stay 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Pelicans v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Spurs in Thursday's win over the Nuggets and then successfully faded them in last night's blowout loss in the quick rematch. Here, I'll get behind the Spurs again as they stay home to face the Pelicans on Sunday night. New Orleans is coming off a win over Detroit on Friday, snapping a brief two-game losing streak. Now the Pelicans hit the road where they're just 4-11 this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.6 points. Note that they're a long-term loser at 59-85 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Spurs meanwhile are 53-29 ATS when playing at home off a loss by 15+ points, which is the situation they're in tonight off last night's loss to the Nuggets. While they're just 5-8 SU at home this season, they've actually managed to outscore the opposition on average so the margin between a winning and losing record is fairly slim. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Monmouth v. Pittsburgh +1 | 56-52 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers have been playing much better basketball lately and snapped their four-game losing streak with a 71-68 win over Colgate in the first game of the Gotham Classic on Thursday. Keep in mind, their four-game skid included narrow one-point losses against Minnesota and Virginia (on the road). Here, we'll note that Pitt is sending opponents to the free throw line just 14 times per game compared to Monmouth's 21. The Panthers also represent a much different challenge than Monmouth is used to facing as they generally focus on scoring down low rather than from beyond the arc, where most of the Hawks opponents have lived, noting that they've faced 25 three-point attempts per game. Pitt attempts just 15 threes per contest. Monmouth checks in undefeated ATS on the season at a perfect 9-0. Off just its second straight-up loss of the campaign I look for it to have a tough time regaining its footing against Pitt on Sunday. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-12-21 | Villanova +4.5 v. Baylor | 36-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova plus the points over Baylor at 3 pm et on Sunday. Could we be seeing a potential National Title Game preview on Sunday afternoon? I'll go with the Wildcats in this spot as they aim to hand Baylor its first loss of the season. Villanova checks in 7-2 on the campaign with its two losses coming by nine points against UCLA and six points against Purdue - two other national title contenders. The Wildcats could offer a bit of a shock to the system for the Bears here, noting that 'Nova averages a whopping 30 three-point attempts per game (making 12 of those on average) while Baylor has only faced an average of 19 attempts per game from three-point range. Note also that the Wildcats are sending opponents to the free throw line only 13 times per game this season and turning the ball over an average of just nine times. By contrast, the Bears turn it over 12 times per game and send opponents to the line 14 times. Simply put, I don't believe there's a lot separating these two teams at this stage of the season and we're being given a couple of buckets to work with. Take Villanova (10*). |
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12-12-21 | NC State +14 v. Purdue | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Purdue at 2 pm et on Sunday. Purdue snagged the number-one ranking in the country and then proceeded to drop a 70-68 decision against Rutgers earlier this week. While the Boilermakers should bounce back with a win here, I question whether they can do so by margin. N.C. State checks in just 1-8 ATS on the campaign but 7-2 straight-up. It's worth noting that the Wolfpack's two losses have come by just six points against Oklahoma State and five points against Louisville - certainly two quality opponents. I like the fact that N.C. State is turning the basketball over just 10 times per game compared to Purdue's 13. The Wolfpack are getting to the free throw line an impressive 25 times per game while sending opponents to the charity stripe only 16 times on average. The Boilers are certainly the more talented team and as I said they should get the win, but they're simply being asked to lay too many points in my opinion. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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12-11-21 | Houston +2.5 v. Alabama | 82-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Alabama at 10 pm et on Saturday. This shapes up as the game of the night as the 14th-ranked Cougars travel to face the 9th-ranked Crimson Tide. We've seen the line flip from Houston being favored to now Alabama laying a bucket. Each team has one loss this season with Houston falling by two points on the road against a tough Wisconsin squad and Alabama dropping a 72-68 decision against Iona. Houston comes off an ATS loss last time out - a game it still won by 32 points over Alcorn State. Following the Cougars two previous ATS defeats this season they've posted wins by 33 points over Rice and 29 points over Oregon. The Crimson Tide already have a big statement win to their credit this season having defeated Gonzaga by nine points in their last game last weekend. Houston is sending opponents to the free throw line just 15 times per game this season and also turning the ball over just 11 times on average. By contrast, Alabama is allowing 20 free throws per contest and turning it over an average of 14 times. I'll grab the points with the underdog Cougars. Take Houston (10*). |
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12-11-21 | Nuggets +1 v. Spurs | Top | 127-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets opened as favorites in the front half of this two-game set in San Antonio on Thursday but the line quickly shifted in favor of the Spurs. We won with San Antonio in that contest but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Nuggets as they look for quick revenge on Saturday. Denver was never really all that competitive in Thursday's game, even if it did manage to keep things relatively close in the third quarter. Keep in mind, the Nuggets were playing the second of back-to-back nights after prevailing in overtime in New Orleans the night before. Here, the Spurs won't have the same rest advantage and that should be a difference-maker. The Nuggets did get a triple-double from Nikola Jokic in Thursday's loss. He's being asked to shoulder a lot of the offensive load with a number of key cogs missing due to injury. Road-weary or not, the Nuggets can ill-afford another slip-up here as they wrap up a seven-game road trip. Denver entered Friday's action a full six games back of the Jazz in the Northwest Division. The Spurs have won just once in their last three games on the heels of a four-game winning streak. They entered Friday as one of only four Western Conference teams that have yet to reach 10 wins on the season. Take Denver (10*). |
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12-11-21 | Western Kentucky +6 v. Ole Miss | 71-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Western Kentucky plus the points over Ole Miss at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We've had to wait a full week, but we finally have an opportunity to fade Ole Miss off last Saturday's gift-wrapped win over Memphis. The Rebels won that game over the Tigers outright as an underdog as Memphis simply couldn't knock down its three-pointers (2-for-11) or free throw attempts (23-for-37) in an embarrassing performance. That was really Ole Miss' only truly impressive win this season and the jury is still out as to how impressive it actually was given the sloppiness of the Tigers in that game. Western Kentucky checks in sporting a less than impressive 5-4 overall record but it has faced a very tough schedule, including three straight November road games against Minnesota, South Carolina and aforementioned Memphis (when the Tigers were playing much better). The Hilltoppers are absolutely a contender in C-USA again this season and we could certainly seem them playing meaningful games in March. These two teams haven't met since back in 2014 when Western Kentucky stunned Ole Miss by an 81-74 score. Another 'upset' could be in the cards here. Take Western Kentucky (10*). |
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12-11-21 | Jazz v. Wizards OVER 218 | 123-98 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Washington at 7 pm et on Saturday. Keeping in mind the most recent matchup between these two teams last April got well into the 240's and the Jazz are on an incredible scoring tear right now, I believe this total will prove too low on Saturday night in Washington. The Wizards might be catching the Jazz at the right time as Utah is playing its fourth road game in the last seven nights, not to mention being in a three-in-four situation away from home. Washington knows it's going to have to hang a crooked number on the board to prevail in this one as Utah has put up 127, 129, 137, 109, 136 and 118 points over the course of its current six-game winning streak. We won with the 'over' when the Jazz opened their current trip with a 109-108 win in Cleveland last Sunday. We're dealing with a slightly higher posted total this time around, but it won't be high enough. Take the over (9*). |
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12-11-21 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 136.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Ohio State at 12 noon et on Saturday. We should be in for an old-fashioned Big 10 slugfest as the Badgers and Buckeyes do battle in early action on Saturday. Wisconsin has gone back to its roots, playing exceptional defensive basketball while limiting its opponents possessions severely. Employing that style should give the Badgers their best shot at staging an upset win over Ohio State on Saturday as well. We did see Wisconsin get involved in a relatively high-scoring affair against Marquette just two games back. It was right back to business last time out, however, in a hard-fought 64-59 win over Indiana. Note that the most recent matchup between these two teams produced 'only' 136 points last January. Ohio State is coming off a high-scoring 85-74 win over Towson. The Buckeyes still check in ranked 255th in the nation in points per game - that's despite sitting top-30 in the country in field goal percentage. By contrast, the Badgers sit north of 300th in both points per game and field goal percentage. Take the under (9*). |
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12-10-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee +13 v. Colorado | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Milwaukee plus the points over Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Friday. Simply put, I'm not buying what Colorado is selling. The Buffaloes have just two ATS wins in 10 games this season. One of those came against a second-division opponent in Maine. The other came by a single point as a double-digit underdog against UCLA. Milwaukee has been largely disappointing to this point, only managing to post two victories. One of those came in its most recent contest against Robert Morris, however. The Panthers have shot better than 47% in consecutive games and I look for them to build off of those performances here. Colorado really isn't doing anything special to this point, making just four three-pointers per game on average while recording only 11 assists per game compared to 12 turnovers. I simply feel this is a good time to buy-low with Milwaukee, noting that three of its six losses this season have come by six points or less. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee (10*). |
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12-10-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 212.5 | 93-109 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This should be a 'defense-optional' type of affair as the Pistons travel to New Orleans to face the Pelicans on Friday night. New Orleans is coming off back-to-back losses. It's worth noting that the Pelicans enter this contest having scored more than 100 points in six consecutive games. The Pistons have been lit up for 110 points or more in five straight games - all losses. They haven't actually tasted victory since November 17th at home against Indiana. Detroit has managed to score over 100 points in three consecutive games and I like its prospects of eclipsing that number with ease again here, noting that New Orleans sits a woeful 29th in the league in terms of defensive rating. Take the over (9*). |
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12-10-21 | DePaul +9 v. Louisville | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Depaul plus the points over Louisville at 8 pm et on Friday. The Blue Demons are getting very little respect in this one as they check in as nearly double-digit underdogs against Louisville. Depaul has lost just one game and that came by just four points against a Loyola-Chicago squad that will likely be dancing come March. The Blue Demons have held the opposition to just north of 40% this season and they've been extremely disciplined in doing so, limiting opponents to only 14 free throw attempts per game. They're also shooting an impressive 49.2% as a team, having faced opponents that yield just 44.6% shooting on average. Louisville is off to a fine 6-2 start to the season but has only managed to go 4-4 ATS. The Cardinals have relied heavily on their defense to secure victories as they check in shooting just north of 42% as a team and 30.6% from three-point range. They're turning the ball over 15 times on average compared to Depaul's 12. Here, we'll note that Depaul is 33-18 ATS the last 51 times it has come off a double-digit home win, outscored by an average of just 2.6 points in that situation. Take Depaul (8*). |