Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214 | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have both gone 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami for Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the Heat haven't been involved in three consecutive 'over' results since their first round series against the up-tempo Bucks. The pace wasn't necessarily there for an 'over' result in either of the first two games in this series. Game 1 saw the Heat and Celtics get off 85 and 81 field goal attempts, respectively. In Game 2, the Heat picked up the pace thanks to trailing by double-digits for stretches, hoisting up 92 field goal attempts. The Celtics were once again stymied, getting off only 79 FG attempts. The Heat have now held five straight opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Game 2 sticks out as an anomaly for the Celtics defensively as they've limited seven of their last nine foes to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The last time they allowed 90 or more FG attempts in a game they followed it up by allowing only 79 in their next contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 25-14 with the Celtics installed as a road favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics have dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series but I don't think they're about to hit the panic button just yet. After all, there's no real intimidation factor in play as they head to Miami, where they've gone 5-2 in seven meetings since the start of last season including three double-digit victories. The fact that Boston has dropped consecutive games both SU and ATS is notable as it hasn't lost three straight contests since March 3rd to 6th. To find the last time the Celtics dropped the cash in more than two straight games you would have to go back to February 27th to March 5th when they lost four in a row ATS. The Heat have now won four straight meetings in this series. That's their longest winning streak in this matchup since way back in 2004. Here, we'll note that Boston is 12-2 ATS when coming off consecutive outright defeats as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 11.2 points in that situation. The C's are also a long-term 145-109 ATS when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent. Meanwhile, the Heat are 13-27 ATS off an ATS victory this season and 9-18 ATS when coming off consecutive SU wins. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat pulled off a stunner in Game 1 to steal home court advantage and at the very least a split in the first two games here in Boston. Incredibly, the ATS winner has now won the last 28 meetings in this series straight-up including 13 outright underdog victories. I look for that trend to continue on Friday but with the Celtics coming out on the winning end this time around. It certainly appeared as if the Celtics thought the Heat would simply roll over and concede Game 1 after Boston took control late in the first half to build a nine-point halftime lead. Instead, the Heat came out on fire in the third quarter, took control of the game and cruised the rest of the way. Note that Miami knocked down 46 field goals in the victory. We haven't seen it connect on 46 or more field goals in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd (oddly enough both games were against Boston) so we can count on some offensive regression here. The Celtics have now dropped three straight meetings in this series (both SU and ATS) and that's notable as they haven't lost four straight matchups against Miami since 2004. Here, we'll note that the Heat are just 8-18 ATS when coming off consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, while the Celtics are 19-9 ATS when coming off an upset loss at home over the last two seasons. Take Boston (8*). |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. These two teams went off for 258 combined points in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. In my analysis prior to that contest I noted that the Lakers offensive ceiling would be considerably higher against the Nuggets (or had proven to be) than it was against the Warriors last round, with a similar floor. Los Angeles essentially hit that ceiling, or came awfully close, in the series-opener. In Game 2, I anticipate some regression with the Lakers likely falling closer to that typical 'floor' production level in this particular matchup. By that I mean Los Angeles had made good on 41 or fewer field goals in two of four regular season meetings in this series. The Lakers pace in Game 1 certainly wasn't indicative of the 126 points they ended up scoring as they actually got off only 84 field goal attempts in the contest. In fact, the Nuggets have now held four straight and 10 of their last 13 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Lakers, meanwhile, haven't gotten off more than 87 field goal attempts in a game since Game 2 against the Warriors last round (they scored a series-low 100 points in that contest). While the Nuggets hoisted up 91 FG attempts on Tuesday that type of up-tempo performance has been the exception rather than the rule. Generally-speaking, it's not easy to speed up Denver. To find the last time the Nuggets got off 90 or more FG attempts in consecutive games you would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd and both of those contests actually stayed 'under' the total with Denver scoring just 93 and 112 points. After shooting the lights out in consecutive games going back to the series-clincher against the Suns last round, I'm anticipating some regression from the Nuggets here offensively. Keep in mind, in four regular season meetings between these two teams, Denver knocked down 'only' 42, 41, 39 and 46 field goals, scoring 122 points in the latter outlier performance in which they got off a whopping 99 FG attempts in early January (that game still totalled 'only' 231 points). Take the under (10*). Finally, we'll note that while the Lakers average 116.6 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 114.9 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS wins (22-game sample size), as is the case here. The Nuggets average 116.0 ppg this season with that scoring average dropping to 113.7 ppg when coming off three or more consecutive wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'm just not buying what the oddsmakers are selling with the Celtics laying a generous helping of points in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive ATS defeats - their longest ATS losing skid since dropping the cash in three straight games from March 25th to 29th. Prior to that you would have to go back to February 13th to 25th - spanning across the All-Star break - to find a previous occasion where Miami lost more than two games in a row ATS. Meanwhile, the Celtics have covered the spread in consecutive games. They haven't strung together more than two ATS wins in a row since a six-game ATS winning streak that stretched from the last two games of the regular season into their opening round mismatch with the Hawks. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup. The Celtics topped out at 46 made field goals in four regular season matchups between these two teams and that performance came in a game where the Heat were missing Jimmy Butler back in late-November (Boston won that game by 13 points). In fact, the C's have knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. That's not to say the Heat have lit it up from the field in this matchup, however, I do feel there's a path for Miami to effectively shorten this game, noting that it checks in having limited the Knicks to 86 or fewer field goal attempts in five of six games last round. The Celtics have been a more up-tempo team than we've been accustomed to seeing as a whole this season, but enter this series having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 contests. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are just 9-21 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.8 points on average in that situation. Take Miami (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. The oddsmakers did a good job of setting totals in the Lakers previous series against the Warriors with five of the six games finishing within 4.5 points of the closing total. We saw the totals edge lower as that series went on and here in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals we're seeing a significantly lower total than we saw in Game 1 against the Warriors. With all of that being said, I don't believe the shift is warranted. Last round I talked on numerous occasions about how the Lakers had a solid floor in terms of scoring production against the Warriors but not all that high of a ceiling. I believe we're dealing with a different set of circumstances here against the Nuggets, noting that Los Angeles has knocked down 40 or more field goals in six straight meetings in this series but has also shown the ability to break out, making good on 46 or more field goals in three of those six contests. On the flip side, Denver has knocked down more than 40 field goals in six of the last seven matchups in this series, making good on 46 or more in four of those contests. The Nuggets are in excellent form off a series against Phoenix in which they connected on 42 or more field goals in five of six games. The Lakers continue to afford their opponents a ton of scoring opportunities having allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games. While Los Angeles' offense did get bogged down a bit as the series went on against Golden State, that will happen when you're playing every other day over a 10-day stretch. Note that the Lakers have played on three or more days' rest, as is the case here, on four previous occasions this season (not including their season-opener) and have knocked down 43, 42, 49 and 43 field goals in those four contests, producing an average point total of 124.3 points in that situation. Take the over (8*). |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Friday. We're finally seeing a significant adjustment made to the total in this series, even after Game 5 ended up sneaking 'over' the closing number. I still feel Friday's total will prove too high. The Warriors went off offensively, knocking down 47-of-92 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. That was at home. They've made good on 43 or fewer field goals in five of their six playoff road games. On a similar note, the Lakers have now held their opponents to 36, 35, 42 (overtime game), 29, 36 and 40 made field goals in seven home playoff games (including the Play-In Tournament game against Minnesota). As I've mentioned throughout this series, while Los Angeles does have a fairly solid floor in terms of offensive production against the Warriors, it doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, topping out at 43 made field goals in nine matchups going back to the start of the regular season. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, as is often the case at this stage of the playoffs, with the Warriors listing Andrew Wiggins as questionable to play due to a rib injury and Anthony Davis probable after a possible concussion. I would anticipate both playing on Friday but certainly Wiggins - a key offensive contributor for the Warriors - won't be 100% healthy. As I've also noted throughout this series, the Warriors are on quite a defensive run having held 21 of their last 22 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals with the 'under' going 12-10 over that stretch. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 36-17 with Golden State playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 31 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We've now seen each of the last three games in this series go 'over' the total which sends Game 6 into 'uncharted territory', at least in recent years. I say that because we haven't seen four straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2016-17. The pace certainly wasn't there to dictate such a high-scoring result in Game 5 on Tuesday. Boston got off 83 field goal attempts in that game while Philadelphia countered with only 79. The 76ers quite simply shot the lights out but I expect the Celtics to make the necessary defensive adjustments here as they face potential elimination on Thursday night. Since allowing the Sixers to knock down 45 field goals in Game 1 of this series, Boston has held Philadelphia to just 31, 31, 42 and 40 made field goals over the last four contests. On the flip side, the 76ers have now limited each of their last 10 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. In fact, nine of Philadelphia's last 10 opponents have gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts. The lone outlier came back in Game 2 of this series last week - the only game that happened to stay 'under' the total in this series to date. Here, we'll note that the 'under' remains a long-term 231-187 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors saw their fourth quarter lead fizzle in Game 4 of this series on Monday and now they find themselves facing elimination as they return home for Game 5 on Wednesday. I expect them to answer back, noting they're off consecutive losses but haven't dropped three games in a row since March 15th to 18th. That also marked the last time they went three consecutive games without posting an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers have won back-to-back games and we've seen this story before in these playoffs as they're 0-2 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive victories, outscored by 17 and 27 points in those two contests. Also note that the Warriors are 12-3 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also 13-3 ATS when playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points on average in that spot. The Warriors quite simply went cold from the field in the last two games but did manage to get off 91 field goal attempts in one of those contests while getting back to 40 or more made field goals in the other. They have been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in their last two games. On nine previous occasions where that occurred this season, they responded by averaging 121.8 points in their next contest. I like that Golden State continues to play well defensively, having limited seven straight and an incredible 20 of its last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While there is a fairly distinct offensive floor in place for the Lakers in this particular matchup, I don't believe their ceiling is all that high. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The last two games in this series both flew 'over' the total as the Suns answered back after digging an 0-2 hole in Denver with consecutive wins on their home floor. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair in Game 4 (it reached 153 total points) as the Nuggets hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while the Suns got off only 81. Both teams simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate a repeat performance from either team as the series shifts back to Denver on Tuesday. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 44-21 with the Nuggets playing at home after allowing their opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field in their previous contest, as is the case here. Denver has been stingy defensively at the best of times at home this season, yielding just 108.5 points per game but that number drops to 107.0 ppg when coming off an 'over' result with that spot producing an average total of 225.2 points (Nuggets home games have averaged 227.2 points overall this season). The fact that the 'over' has cashed in consecutive matchups between these two teams is worth noting as we haven't seen three straight 'over' results in this series in the same season since the 2020-21 campaign (and in that case the third game totalled just 227 points). Take the under (8*). |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. The Lakers thrashed the Warriors by 30 points on Saturday as Golden State had a miserable night shooting the basketball, connecting on just 36-of-91 field goal attempts in the loss. Hidden in that lopsided result was the fact that the Warriors held their sixth straight opponent to 43 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has now limited an incredible 19 of its last 20 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. I am confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back offensively here, noting that they've averaged 120.0 points per game when coming off a contest in which they made good on fewer than 40 field goals this season. We can project Golden State to have plenty of scoring opportunities in this game as the Lakers have now yielded more than 90 field goal attempts to seven straight opponents. While Los Angeles has hung tough in this series going back to the start of the regular season, I don't feel it has all that high of an offensive ceiling, noting that it has topped out at 42 made field goals in seven matchups. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 22-10 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. This is also one our favorite fade spots for the Lakers, as they're a woeful 5-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last three seasons. Take Golden State (8*). |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 228 | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 8 pm et on Sunday. It seems like the oddsmakers are playing 'catch-up' with the totals in this series, making the usual adjustments after the fact but ultimately overreacting in hindsight (as is often the case). Game 1 saw 232 total points so the total was adjusted a couple of points higher for Game 2, which ended up reaching only 184 points. For Game 3, the total was adjusted considerably lower only for that contest to sail 'over' with 235 total points. Here, we're again working with a higher posted total and I believe it will prove too high. The Nuggets were baited into a much faster-paced affair than they probably would have liked in Game 3, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts themselves while allowing the Suns to get off 95. As we anticipated, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant relished the opportunity to play 'hero ball' down 2-0 in the series and with most counting them out with Chris Paul sidelined. The pair combined to knock down 32 field goals and score a whopping 86 points in the victory. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets make the necessary adjustments here, noting that they had held 10 straight and an incredible 19 of their last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals prior to Phoenix knocking down 48 in that contest. As I mentioned, Denver got off 97 FG attempts in Friday's loss. You would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd to find the last time it hoisted up more than 90 FG attempts in consecutive games though, and those previous two contests still totalled only 193 and 222 points. Phoenix didn't look good defensively in Game 1 of this series but has held Denver to just 36 and 43 made field goals in two games since. Note that the Suns have limited 30 of their last 37 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. While Phoenix went off in Game 3, it had previously been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in five consecutive meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 228 | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The first two games of this series both went 'over' the total (using the closing total for Game 2, noting the final score fell right around the number) but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3 on Saturday. Yes, the Warriors continue to give up a ton of scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 15 straight games. However, there's been a method to their madness as they've held 18 of their last 19 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. The Lakers don't figure to be the ones to break through, at least not right now as they've knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven games and that's despite hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. Speaking of defense, Los Angeles turned in a poor effort at that end of the floor in Thursday's predictable Warriors bounce-back game. Still, the Lakers have held eight of their last nine and 12 of their last 15 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Warriors can still get hot at times, as we saw in Game 2 of this series, they've actually made good on 43 or fewer field goals in six of nine games in these playoffs. Also note that while the 'over' has cashed in the first two games of this series, Golden State hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since a four-game 'over' streak way back in early February. The Lakers have had just one 'over' streak last more than two games going all the way back to December 28th, but it was a long one with eight straight contests finding their way 'over' the total from March 26th to April 9th. Take the under (8*). |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Friday. The word 'sweep' is being thrown around quite a bit as this series shifts to Phoenix with the Suns licking their wounds following consecutive double-digit losses in Denver. Yes, the Suns are in tough with Chris Paul sidelined, likely for the next three games, due to a groin injury suffered in Game 2. His absence likely means more time with the ball in the hands of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and I don't think it's a stretch to say that duo is likely relishing the opportunity to play 'hero ball' on Friday night. Cam Payne and Damion Lee project to absorb Chris Paul's minutes. Both struggled mightily in Game 2 of this series but I'm confident they can bounce back at home. Payne in particular has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of his young career and this is obviously a big opportunity to showcase his talent. While the Nuggets have won consecutive games to open this series, they're heading into uncharted territory now, having now won more than two meetings in a row against the Suns since 2019-20 when they reeled off five straight victories in this series (3-2 ATS). Here, we'll note that Denver is a long-term 126-169 ATS when playing on the road after winning its last two games ATS. Worse still, the Nuggets check in 6-17 ATS when coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons. Phoenix on the other hand has gone 28-15 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 114-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Celtics made the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing in Game 1 of this series and ultimately thrashed the 76ers by 34 points in Game 2 on Wednesday. I expect the 76ers to answer back as the series shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3 on Friday. While it's difficult to term any playoff game as a 'throwaway affair' but I think Game 2 of this series did quickly devolve into that type of contest for the 76ers. They ultimately hoisted up only 79 field goal attempts (and connected on just 31) in that uninspiring effort. Of course, the Sixers had already accomplished what they set out to do in the first two games in Boston and that was earn a split. A letdown was almost surely in order. Here, I'm confident it will be Philadelphia that makes the necessary adjustments, noting that it allowed Boston to get off 92 field goal attempts in Game 2 - the first time in seven games it yielded more than 83 FG attempts to its opponent. Still, the Sixers have limited seven straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Philadelphia has allowed 110.2 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 104.3 ppg allowed when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here, outscoring foes by an average margin of 7.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Boston averages 116.1 points per game on the road this season but that scoring average drops to 110.7 ppg when coming off a win over a division opponent. Finally, we'll note that the 76ers are 42-26 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Doc Rivers, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers stunned the Warriors by a score of 117-112 in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday as Golden State had an awful shooting night and ultimately fell just short. I'm confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back in Game 2 on Thursday. Note that Golden State got off a whopping 106 field goal attempts in the series-opener. That marked the sixth time since February 23rd that the Warriors hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts. The Lakers haven't had the ability (or interest) in limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 14 contests. Give a team as talented as the Warriors enough opportunities and they're going to take advantage and I think we'll see that on Thursday. On the flip side, Golden State allowed Los Angeles to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in Game 1 of this series. Interestingly, the Warriors have now held 17 of their last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. That's impressive when you consider each of their last 14 opponents have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 32-18 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here (the Lakers have actually won four straight meetings in this series). While the Warriors have averaged 118.6 points per game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 points, they've scored an average of 120.3 points per game while outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points on average when coming off an ATS loss (15-6 ATS in that situation). Finally, the Lakers are 15-29 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories over the last three seasons, which is the situation here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 217 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series sailed 'over' the total witb both teams shooting the lights out in a 119-115 76ers victory in Boston. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring affair in the series-opener. Philadelphia hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while Boston got off just 75 in a stunning home defeat. Note that the 76ers knocked down 45 field goals - just the fourth time in their last 17 games that they managed to connect on more than 42 field goals. On the flip side, the 44 made field goals they allowed served as the first time in six games they yielded 40 or more successful field goal attempts. In fact, Philadelphia has still limited 18 of its last 23 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Boston hasn't been as stout defensively as we've become accustomed to seeing in these playoffs, I am confident it can bounce back from Monday's poor showing in Game 2. Note that the Celtics have held 18 of their last 21 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals - not a bad high-water mark in that department when you consider they've allowed 89 or more FG attempts in 10 straight and 14 of their last 15 contests. As I've noted previously in these playoffs, the C's have been yielding too many scoring opportunities but the 76ers are unlikely to continue to push the pace the way they did in Game 1, noting they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 13 of their last 16 games and average just 84 FG attempts per game this season. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are heading into uncharted territory having matched their longest 'over' streak of the season at five games. Interestingly, the only previous time they posted five consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total against these same 76ers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams wrapped up round one of the NBA Playoffs with consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' went 4-1 in the final five games of the Lakers 4-2 series win over the Grizzlies. The 'under' cashed in four of the last six games in the Warriors 4-3 series victory over the Kings. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday, however. Both of these teams invite up-tempo play from the opposition. Interestingly, the Lakers allowed 93, 106 (aided by overtime), 99 and 96 field goal attempts over their last four games against the Grizzlies. Memphis was simply unable to take advantage of its wealth of scoring opportunities, running cold at the absolute worst time (the Grizzlies made good on 44 or fewer field goals in all six contests). I don't expect the Warriors to suffer the same fate. The ramped up offensively as the series went on against the Kings, knocking down 40 or more field goals and hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four of the final five games in the opening round. In fact, Golden State has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in nine of its last 12 contests and has hoisted up 100 or more FG attempts on five different occasions since February 23rd. On the flip side, the Warriors have yielded 90 or more FG attempts to their opponents in an incredible 13 straight games. With the Lakers rounding into form offensively, making good on more than 40 field goals in 11 of their last 14 contests and getting off 90 or more FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 overall, I believe this game sets up as a potential track meet. Keep in mind, the Lakers - despite not always being at full strength - managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in all four regular season meetings with the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State had little trouble finding looks, hoisting up 99, 96, 105 and 91 FG attempts in those four matchups. In eight meetings between these two teams since the start of last season, the low water mark in terms of points scored for either team was 103 with both teams putting up more than 110 points in five of those eight contests. Take the over (10*). |
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10:05 pm et on Monday. Game 1 of this series managed to creep 'over' the total thanks to a tremendous offensive performance from the Nuggets. That contest marked only the second time all season that Denver hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts in a game. I certainly feel that the Suns expected the Nuggets to employ a different, slower-paced offensive gameplan than they did in the series-opener so now it's on Phoenix to make the necessary adjustments defensively. Note that the Suns have only had eight previous what I would term 'outlier' poor defensive efforts - games in which they allowed 48 or more made field goals (as they did in Game 1 of this series). Following those contests, they've allowed 95, 128, 111, 121, 112, 106, 94 and 115 points in their next game, so a bit all over the place, but generally-speaking, they've allowed just north of 110 points per game in that situation, which is right around two points per game below their season average. All that is to say, I do expect Phoenix to bounce back from a defensive standpoint in Game 2. On the flip side, however, I think the Suns are still going to be in tough. Note that Denver has now held 16 of its last 19 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Only four of their last 19 opponents have gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts and one of those was aided by overtime. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive games involving the Nuggets for the first time since March 10th to 14th. Note that they've incredibly had just three 'over' streaks last three games or more this season with none of those lasting longer than four contests. Take the under (8*). |
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04-30-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 229.5 | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We've seen three of the first six games go 'under' the total in this series including Game 6 on Friday, which reached just 217 points. A considerable adjustment has been made to the total for game 7 - this is the lowest total we've seen all series. I still feel the number is too high. Note that the Warriors have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in 13 of those contests. With that being said, Golden State will need to make adjustments here after De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk went off on Friday night - similar to the situation they were in following the series-opener (note that Game 2 totalled just 220 points with the Kings knocking down only 42 field goals). The Kings are a better defensive team than most give them credit for and they certainly showed that in Game 6 on Friday. Save for an awful defensive effort in a 123-116 loss here at home in Game 5, they've held up reasonably well at that end of the floor in this series, noting that they've limited the Warriors to 90 or fewer field goal attempts in four of six games. Sacramento has held 11 of its last 14 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (8*). |
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | 107-125 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The last time these two teams met on April 6th in Phoenix they combined to score 234 points. Not entirely due to that result but likely in part, we're working with a higher posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. Note that while both the Suns and Nuggets offenses were on point in the opening round, I've been impressed by the two teams' defensive play as well. Phoenix enters this game having held five straight and 13 of their last 14 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. That's despite allowing eight of those opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. I don't anticipate the Nuggets looking to speed things up here. They've hoisted up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last eight games. Denver has held eight straight and 17 of its last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. The Nuggets really clamped down defensively against the Timberwolves in the opening round, limiting them to 81 or fewer FG attempts in four of five games (the only game where they didn't went to overtime). While both teams shot exceptionally well in the first meeting of the season back on Christmas Day, since then we've seen Denver hold Phoenix to just 39, 37 and 41 made field goals in three matchups. I realize the Suns are a different team with Kevin Durant joining the fold but were they really all that different in the opening round against the Clippers? In that series they knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in four of six games. Noting that the 'under' is 14-6 with the Nuggets seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 224.9 points in that situation, we'll look precisely that way in Game 1 on Saturday. Take the under (8*). |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 219 | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Games 1 and 4 in this series but were fortunate to cash the latter thanks only to overtime. The other three games all stayed 'under' the total and I expect a similar outcome on Friday as well. The Lakers are thriving in this series largely due to their defensive play. They've held the Grizzlies to 44 or fewer made field goals in all five games despite Memphis hoisting up at least 89 field goal attempts in every contest. In fact, Los Angeles has limited 10 of its last 13 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Since allowing the Lakers to knock down a whopping 49 field goals in Games 1, the Grizzlies have settled in defensively as well, holding Los Angeles to 41 or fewer made field goals in each of the last four contests. Only two of their last nine opponents have knocked down more than 44 field goals. While the Grizzlies average 113.7 points per game on the road this season, that number falls to 107.7 as a road underdog. The Lakers, meanwhile, have been a better defensive team at home this season, yielding 113.2 points per contest, while their offense has been only 0.1 point per game better than their season scoring average here at Crypto.com Arena. Take the under (8*). |
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04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235 | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Golden State at 8 pm et on Friday. Consecutive 'over' results have helped keep this total reasonably high as we enter Game 6 of the series on Friday in San Francisco. The Warriors continue to play effective defense having now held 14 of their last 15 opponents to 44 made field goals or less. On the flip side, they're coming off a game in which they knocked down 50 field goals - a number they're unlikely to approach again on Friday. Keep in mind, the Kings have limited 11 of their last 13 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. We're talking about two teams that are playing at a reasonably fast pace but still managing to hold their form defensively. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the last two games, the Kings haven't seen three straight contests go 'over' the total since a four-game streak from March 18th to 24th. To find the last time the Warriors delivered three straight 'over' results you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to 8th, when they also saw four consecutive games go 'over' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Atlanta at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The majority of the teams looking to 'bounce back' in NBA playoff action last night simply didn't, with the Cavaliers and Bucks both eliminated on their home floor and the Kings pushed to the brink of elimination with a home defeat against the Warriors - their third loss in a row. Only the Grizzlies managed to fight back. I only say point that out as I do expect the Celtics to respond positively following their stunning home loss to the Hawks two nights ago. Boston appeared to have that game (and the series) sewn up but as has inexplicably happened on multiple occasions this season, it let down its guard and now is forced to go back to work on the road on Thursday. Note that the Celtics are 39-26 ATS when coming off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Atlanta on the other hand checks in a woeful 7-19 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog over the last two seasons, as is the case here. While the return of Dejounte Murray from suspension figures to give the Hawks a boost, it also serves to take some opportunities away from Trae Young, who I think thrives when forced to shoulder the entire offensive load, as we saw in Game 5 on Tuesday. Take Boston (8*). |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11 | Top | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Miami at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat pulled off an improbable home sweep of the Bucks in Games 3 and 4 of this series and head to Milwaukee with a commanding 3-1 series lead. I expect the Bucks to answer back on Wednesday, however. Consider Game 4 of this series the 'Jimmy Butler Game' as he went off for 56 points with the rest of the Heat players essentially left to play bit parts. Despite being held to 87 field goal attempts or less in all four games in this series, the Heat have scored above their season scoring average in all four contests thanks to knocking down 50, 45, 45 and 43 field goals. Interestingly, Game 4 was actually their worst shooting performance of the series yet they won in a rout. Here, I'm confident we'll see a positive response from the Bucks defensively. Note that prior to this series, Miami had made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 25 of its previous 30 contests. Despite the loss in the same situation in Game 4, the Bucks are still 11-2 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season, averaging well north of their season scoring average with 120.0 points per game in that situation. When coming off consecutive ATS losses this season (12-game sample size), as is the case here, Milwaukee has averaged 123.9 points per game. In the long-term picture, the Bucks are 71-46 ATS when playing at home off consecutive defeats. This has typically been a poor spot for the Heat this season as they're a woeful 1-10 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games, averaging only 104.8 points per game in that situation. Over the last two seasons, the Heat have gone 4-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six contests ATS, as is the case here, averaging a similarly poor 104.9 ppg along the way. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -4 | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. After stealing a split in the first two games of this series in Memphis the Lakers held serve in Games 3 and 4 at home, including an overtime victory last time out. Needless to say, that most recent contest could have gone either way and I certainly don't think the Grizzlies will feel like they're out of this series despite being down 3-1. Extended ATS winning streaks haven't been commonplace for the Lakers in recent years, noting that they've gone 15-28 ATS following two or more ATS victories in a row over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Worse still, they're just 8-19 ATS when coming off consecutive home wins over the same stretch. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, check in 19-7 when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points in that situation. They've proven to be a resilient team, going 17-6 ATS after suffering consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.1 points on average in that spot. Despite losing both Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, Memphis still held the Lakers to just 41 made field goals in each contest (including an overtime game) and have now limited five of their last eight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Following a late season offensive surge, the Lakers have connected on 41 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. I also feel that Los Angeles is giving up far too many scoring opportunities, having yielded 89 or more field goal attempts in regulation time in six of its last seven contests. Look for the Grizzlies to take advantage on Wednesday. Take Memphis (8*). |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Garden felt like the Garden again as the Knicks rolled to consecutive victories over the Cavaliers on Friday and Sunday, grabbing a 3-1 lead in the series as it shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5 on Wednesday. I don't expect the Cavs to roll over as they've owned a considerable home court advantage of their own all season, going 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.2 points per game. Better still, the Cavs are 10-2 ATS when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring the opposition by a ridculous average margin of 14.8 points in that spot. When playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games ATS this season, as is the case here, they've held opponents to just 98.1 points per game, outscoring them by 16.6 points on average. I felt that Cleveland had its share of good looks from the field in Games 3 and 4 but simply couldn't take advantage. While the Knicks have undoubtedly been good defensively, limiting the Cavs to 38 or fewer made field goals in all four games in this series, Cleveland has now limited six straight opponents to less than 40 made field goals. Here at home this season, the Cavs have held the opposition to an average of only 38 made field goals per contest. As poorly as things went for Cleveland offensively over the last couple of games, it's worth noting that it was held to fewer than 100 points in back-to-back contests only once previously this season - that coming in its regular season finale and then Game 1 of this series. We saw the Cavs bounce back from those poor performances with a resounding 107-90 win over the Knicks in Game 2. Look for them to bring their 'A' game again on Wednesday. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 221 | Top | 109-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This play sets up similarly to when we (successfully) backed the 'over' in Game 2 of this series last week. Remember, the series-opener was exceptionally low-scoring with just 189 total points scored but as expected, Game 2 was much higher-scoring, reaching into the low-230's. Note that the 'under' hasn't cashed in consecutive meetings in this series since back in May and October 2021. Since then, the two teams have matched up 11 times with the 'over' going 8-3. While we did win with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Sunday, it wasn't easy as overtime nearly toppled the total. Of course that contest reached only 192 points in regulation time. As I've noted previously in this series, the Timberwolves have been one of the most productive 'fast break' teams in the league this season - top-eight in the league in fast break points during the regular season, in fact. While injuries have played a factor, they've played far too slow in this series. However, with some life following Sunday's overtime win, I do expect Minnesota to play with 'house money' on Tuesday and push the pace more than we've seen. Karl-Anthony Towns' two highest-scoring games of this series have come in the last two contests. The sudden absence of Kyle Anderson means more scoring opportunities for the likes of Towns and Anthony Edwards, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. On the flip side, the Nuggets are heavily-favored for a reason here. Note that while they average 115.7 points per game overall this season, that number bumps up to 118.5 when coming off a road loss (22-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 229.4 points in that situation. While it was aided by overtime on Sunday, Denver has now knocked down more than 40 field goals in all four games in this series. Finally, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with the Nuggets playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. In fact the 'over' is 58-36 with Denver coming off a loss over the same stretch and a long-term 176-139 when the Nuggets check in off an outright defeat as a favorite, which is the situation here. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers OVER 220.5 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series last Sunday but have stayed idle from a totals perspective since with the 'under' cashing in the last two games. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair than we saw on Saturday, when the Lakers prevailed by a 111-101 score. The Grizzlies have shot poorly in consecutive games, knocking down just 38 and 35 field goals. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday as Memphis hoisted up 93 field goal attempts and Los Angeles got off 90. Note that the last time the Grizzlies were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games was way back on February 5th and 7th. In their next game they went off for 49-of-84 shooting in a 128-point outburst against Minnesota. Prior to that they were held to 39 and 36 made field goals on December 25th and 27th, respectively, before knocking down 48 in a 119-point effort against Toronto. The week previous to that they were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive affairs before connecting on 45 in a 125-point performance against Phoenix. You get the picture. The Lakers responded following a poor offensive showing in Game 2 by making good on 41-of-90 field goal attempts for 111 points on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have now allowed seven of their last eight and 12 of their last 14 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Neither team has been able to slow down its opposition with any sort of consistency with Memphis allowing 90 or more FG attempts in nine of its last 12 games and Los Angeles yielding 89 or more FG attempts in eight of its last 10 contests. We've now seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total and that's notable as you would have to go back to late 2020-early 2021 to find the last time three straight meetings stayed 'under'. The last time we saw consecutive 'under' results in this series was on December 9th and 29th of 2021 and the next matchup resulted in a whopping 246 total points right here in Los Angeles. The Grizzlies average 116.5 points per game this season but that number rises to 117.1 when coming off a game in which they scored 105 points or less (17-game sample size), as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 228.6 points. Similarly, the Lakers average 116.8 points per game this season but that scoring average increases to 117.3 when coming off an 'under' result (39-game sample size), leading to an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. Finally, we'll note that you would have to go back to February 15th to March 3rd - when the Grizzlies posted an 0-5-1 o/u mark - to find the last time Memphis was involved in more than two 'under' results in a row. Meanwhile, the Lakers last posted a three-game 'under' streak from March 15th to 19th with the 'over' going 10-4 in their 14 games since. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Sunday. If the Timberwolves are going to extend this series back to Denver for Game 5 they're going to need to play a certain way on Sunday night in Minnesota and I think that involves effectively shortening proceedings by grinding it out and turning this into a slugfest. I say that because they can't expect to get much more from a banged-up Anthony Edwards than they did in Friday's loss as he poured in 36 points on 10-of-22 shooting from the field and 13-of-15 from the free throw line. Karl-Anthony Towns produced 27 points in that game as well, but again the T'Wolves still lost by nine points. Without the likes of Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels, not to mention Jaylen Nowell playing hurt, the T'Wolves just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Denver. With that being said, it's rarely easy to close an opponent out and the Nuggets are likely to find that out here. Denver has of course dealt with its own injury issues with Nikola Jokic in particular still probably playing at less than 100%. It's worth noting that this will be the third game in five nights in this series. Denver has made a concerted effort to slow things down in this series, limiting the T'Wolves to 81, 79 and 79 field goal attempts while topping out at 90 FG attempts itself - that coming in the series-opener, which happened to be the lowest-scoring game of the series to date. We know that Minnesota is capable of stepping up defensively as it has limited the opposition to 41-of-88 shooting on average here at home this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-4 with the T'Wolves playing at home off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 222.5 points in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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04-23-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I think we're seeing an overreaction to the lopsided nature of Game 3 of this series on Thursday as the Kings suffered an expected letdown after winning the first two games of the series at home. Sacramento certainly didn't bring its 'A' game on that night, knocking down just 35-of-92 field goal attempts in the 17-point loss. I do think the potential is there for the Kings to give the Warriors a much tougher run here, noting they haven't dropped consecutive games ATS in this series since back in October and December 2021 (the two teams have met nine times since). While the Warriors have been defending reasonably well, as I noted in my analysis of Thursday's contest, I don't like the fact that they've now allowed nine straight opponents to get off 90 or more field goal attempts including 98, 92 and 92 in this series. Give a team as talented as the Kings enough scoring opportunities and they're going to take advantage. On the flip side, Game 3 marked the first time in seven games the Kings allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts and they still held the Warriors to only 40 made field goals. Sacramento has limited seven straight and 10 of its last 11 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in eight of its last 11 contests. The Warriors will get Draymond Green back from suspension for this game. I'm not sure how much of a help that really is as I liked the rotation they employed without him on Thursday with Jordan Poole and Donte DiVincenzo in particular seeing extra floor time. Finally, we'll note that the Kings are 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 2.2 points in that situation. They've gone 22-12 ATS when coming off a loss this season, outscoring foes by 2.7 points on average in that spot. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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04-23-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 206.5 | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a major adjustment to the total over the course of this series, and rightfully so as the first three games have stayed comfortably 'under' the total. With that being said, I expect a different story to unfold in this matinee affair on Sunday in Manhattan. It's not that the two teams played at a snail's pace in Game 3 on Friday - in fact it was played at a fairly frenetic tempo in the early going but both teams were simply ice cold from the field and three-point range in particular. Even the free throw line proved to be a difficult spot with the two teams combining to shoot 21-of-35 from the charity stripe (they've combined to knock down 36-of-47 free throw attempts on average this season). From beyond the arc, we did see the scoring pick up a bit in the second half in Game 3 with the two sides combining to make good on 17 threes, but that was on 66 attempts. They average 24-of-68 combined shooting from three point range this season. There's too much offensive talent on the floor to see another ugly shooting performance on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 108-79 with the Cavaliers seeking revenge for a 20-point loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Knicks seem to have gained a boost following home wins this season, averaging 5.3 points more than their season scorning average, but also giving up 1.3 additional points per game, when coming off a win at Madison Square Garden, with the 'over' going 16-7 in those contests. We've now seen three straight games in this series stay 'under' the total, which is notable. The last time three consecutive matchups between these two teams stayed 'under' the total in the same season was back in the 2015-16 campaign. There was another three-game 'under' streak that spanned across two seasons in 2017 and only one of those contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with today. The next game following that streak totalled 232 points. I expect the Cavs in particular to make the necessary adjustments to punch back here but the Knicks are favored for a reason at home and their multi-dimensional offense is always a handful to defend here at MSG. Take the over (8*). |
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04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 220.5 | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen two exceptionally high-scoring games to open this series, totalling 247 and 260 points. Now we're heading into uncharted territory in this series, however, noting that the 'over' has cashed in each of the last four meetings, matching the longest 'over' streak since way back in 2007-08. That four-game 'over' streak ended with an extremely low-scoring 78-73 Heat victory, staying 'under' the total by 40+ points. While we're not going to see that type of defensive struggle here, I do think the total will prove too high. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains questionable to play for the Bucks. Regardless whether he's able to go, the incentive is there for the Heat to slow things down at home, where they've averaged 40 made field goals per game while giving up an identical 40. We've seen a shift from the Bucks defensively as they've made an effort to limit their opponents' possessions, unlike what we saw for much of the regular season. They've limited four of their last seven foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat have knocked down 50 and 45 field goals in the first two games of this series. Keep in mind, they've made good on 45 or more field goals in just six of their last 15 contests. In other words, I don't think their hot shooting is sustainable. The Bucks, meanwhile, made good on a whopping 53 field goals in Game 2. The previous three times they knocked down 50 or more field goals, they connected on just 39, 38 and 39 field goals in their next contest with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 127-96 with the Heat playing the role of home underdog, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 211 | 79-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 8:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in these two teams' final regular season meeting back on March 31st - a game that totalled a whopping 246 total points. Since then, we've seen Games 1 and 2 of this playoff series stay comfortably 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however, as the scene shifts to Madison Square Garden for Game 3. Both defenses are terrific, that much we know. The offenses aren't too bad either though, even if the Knicks did turn in a brutal performance in Game 2. Keep in mind, Game 1 reached 198 total points despite both teams shooting poorly, knocking down a combined 73 field goals (they've combined to average 83 made field goals per game this season). Game 2's low-scoring result had a lot to do with the lopsided nature of the contest, with the Cavaliers racing ahead by 20 points before halftime and then effectively taking the air out of the basketball in the fourth quarter (they ran the shot clock down on nearly every possession in the final 7-8 minutes). Cleveland keyed on stopping Jalen Brunson on Tuesday after he scored 27 points in just 29 minutes in the series-opener. The Knicks supporting cast certainly didn't perform up to standards in Game 2 but I'm confident we'll see a solid bounce-back effort across the board here, including from Brunson as New York makes the necessary adjustments to find him more open looks. Note that Josh Hart was a virtual non-factor offensively in his 26 minutes as he played hurt with an ankle injury (he scored five points but averages double-figures this season). The extra day off between Games 2 and 3 should serve him well. On the flip side, Donovan Mitchell scored just 17 points in Game 2 - only the second time in the last nine games he contributed 30 points or less. Again, that had a lot to do with the lopsided nature of the game. Even if Darius Garland stays aggressive in Game 3, I still expect Mitchell to get his. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has not cashed in three straight meetings in this series since 2017. That stretch came across two seasons. To find the last time three consecutive matchups have stayed 'under' the total in the same season, you would have to go back to the 2015-16 campaign. Also note that in that most recent three-game series 'under' streak in 2017, only two of those contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight. Finally, we'll note that while the Knicks average 117.3 points per game at home this season, that number bumps up to 120.3 ppg when listed as a home favorite, as is the case here. Better still, the 'over' is 13-5 with New York playing at home following an 'under' result, with the Knicks averaging 121.4 points per contest and those games totalling an average of 235.1 points. Take the over (8*). |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Warriors have had no answers for the aggressiveness of De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk through two games in this series. While the sudden absence of Draymond Green (due to suspension) doesn't figure to help matters, I actually think Golden State can spin it into a positive as it returns home in an 0-2 hole on Thursday. The absence of Green should mean more minutes for the likes of Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton Jr, all of which can help out on defense but also provide more of a spark offensively. Here, we'll note that the Warriors have gone 14-6 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss this season, averaging 120.6 points per game (compared to their home season scoring average of 119.7 ppg) while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.8 points in that situation. Better still, Golden State is 25-13 ATS at home off a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 9.6 points on average in that spot. While the Kings have averaged 118.0 points per game on the road this season, that number drops to 115.4 when checking in as a road underdog. Sacramento enters this game off consecutive wins but hasn't won three straight contests since March 15th to 18th and all three of those victories came against Eastern Conference opponents. Despite their poor start in this series, the Warriors check in 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games having not dropped three in a row since, coincidentally, March 15th to 18th. While Golden State has obviously struggled to defend Sacramento at times in this series, I do think the Warriors deserve credit for their defensively play in recent weeks. Note that Golden State has held 12 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite nine of those foes getting off 90 or more field goal attempts. In stark contrast, the Kings have allowed 12 of their last 14 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. That's concerning when you consider that the Warriors have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts in five of their last seven games and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in 14 of their last 17 contests. In other words, I don't believe the sky is falling in San Francisco and expect the defending champions to get back in this series on Thursday. Take Golden State (10*). |
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04-19-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) series-opener between these two teams on Sunday as the Nuggets cruised to a 109-80 victory. I certainly expect to see a positive response from the Timberwolves offensively on Wednesday. Note that Minnesota has scored 107, 112, 109, 123 and 119 points after being held under 100 points in its previous game this season. It's also worth mentioning that the T'Wolves have averaged 118.7 points per game when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season compared to their overall season scoring average of 115.2 points per game. After hoisting up only 81 field goal attempts despite trailing most of the way on Sunday, I expect the T'Wolves to make a concerted effort to push the pace here, noting they rank eighth in the league in fast break points per game this season. Of course, the Nuggets are favored by a generous helping of points for a reason. They've been considerably better offensively at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 119.1 points per game. They didn't have to be great offensively to win handily in Game 1 but I do think they'll get pushed a little more here. Note that they enter this game having knocked down more than 40 field goals in six straight and 15 of their last 17 games overall. Meanwhile, Minnesota hasn't had much success controlling its opponents' tempo, allowing eight of its last nine opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts. Take the over (10*). |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a major adjustment to this pointspread since Game 1, due in large part to the up-in-the-air status of Ja Morant after he re-aggravated his hand injury in the series-opener. I believe it will prove too much of an adjustment as the Grizzlies look to answer back at home, where they're still an incredible 35-7 this season having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.0 points per game. Keep in mind, Memphis is accustomed to playing without Morant as it has done so on 22 occasions this season. Also note that he has topped out at 18 points in six of his last nine games so I do think his offensive production can be accounted for with Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard in particular being called upon. The Lakers are approaching uncharted territory noting that they've now won four straight games. They've only once previously won more than four games in a row this season, that coming in a five-game win streak from December 30th to January 7th. Also note that they've now covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Grizzlies. They haven't managed to reel off three straight ATS victories in this series since way back in 2017. The fact that the Lakers pulled away in the closing minutes on Saturday sets them up in a situation where they've gone 18-35 ATS following a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS when playing at home following two or more days' rest this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 16.5 points on average in that spot. They've also 24-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.6 points in that situation. I could go on but the bottom line is, I don't anticipate the Lakers getting anything close to the combined 19-of-27 shooting we saw from the duo of Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura in Game 1, while the Grizzlies have proven resilient under head coach Taylor Jenkins going 23-10 ATS playing at home off a home loss and 38-22 ATS when coming off consecutive defeats. Take Memphis (8*). |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 229.5 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Game 1 between these two teams on Saturday was an interesting affair that saw one quarter (the fourth) total only 42 points but another reach a whopping 70 points (the second). That contest ultimately cruised well below the total as both teams were inconsistent offensively. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 on Tuesday, however, as the Hawks look to punch back while the Celtics try to grab a 2-0 strangle-hold before the scene shifts to Atlanta. One thing is for sure, the Hawks are going to get their scoring opportunities. In four meetings in this series this season, Atlanta has hoisted up 101, 100, 97 and 98 field goal attempts. Saturday's game marked a low-water mark as the Hawks made good on just 42 of those attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see them shoot as poorly as they did on Saturday from beyond the arc (5-of-29 on three-point attempts). The problem is, even if Atlanta is able to do a much better job of taking advantage of its opportunities offensively, the Celtics are in line for some positive regression offensively as well and aren't likely to take their foot off the gas the way they did in the second half on Saturday. After scoring 74 points in the first half, Boston produced a miserable 38 points in the second half, actually letting the Hawks back into the game in the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown clearly struggled after re-aggravating the laceration on his hand while Jayson Tatum scored well below his season average with 25 points on 10-of-23 shooting. Even going down the line, guys like Al Horford and Malcolm Brogdon made only minimal offensive contributions (11 points combined). Given the Hawks have now allowed more than 40 made field goals in 22 of their last 24 games and 40 or more in 26 of their last 28 contests, the Celtics are well-positioned to go off here. While Boston is still a terrific defensive team, we have certainly witnessed a shift this season with it yielding far more scoring opportunities thanks in large part to playing at a faster pace. The C's enter this game having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine contests. On the flip side, they've hoisted up 88 or more FG attempts themselves in 11 of their last 12 games. The Hawks have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. While they've recorded 'under' streaks lasting three games or more on five previous occasions this season, I think their totals are being over-adjusted at this point. For instance, their most recent three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 31st saw all three contests total at least 231 points. Prior to that, a three-game 'under' streak from March 17th to 21st saw all three games reach at least 236 points. You get the idea. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 10 pm et on Monday. The first game in this series breezed 'over' the total thanks to a parade to the free throw line with the two teams attempting a combined 59 shots from the charity stripe. Even with that in mind, they still 'only' eclipsed the total we're working with on Monday by nine points. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Warriors last two games. They haven't posted three straight 'over' results since the first week of February and even during that stretch they didn't see three consecutive games go 'over' the total we're working with here. While neither team is known for its defense, it's worth noting that the Warriors have held 11 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals while the Kings have limited five straight and eight of their last nine foes to that number or less. So in a sense we are dealing with a somewhat limited ceiling for the two offenses here. I certainly expect the Warriors to make some adjustments as they look to contain Malik Monk in particular after he went off in Game 1. On the flip side, Golden State could be without Jordan Poole for this game after he was limited due to injury in the series-opener. Gary Payton Jr. saw extended floor time with Poole struggling on Saturday with the former being more of a key defender than an offensive contributor. While the Warriors did shoot just 16-of-50 from three-point range on Saturday, that's not necessarily unexpected as they average 16 made threes per game on the road while the Kings have held the opposition to just 13 makes per game from beyond the arc here at home. Finally, I'll point out that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series go 'over' the total over the last 10 meetings. The last time that did occur was back in January and March of 2021. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Memphis at 3 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers were involved in an incredibly low-scoring game against the Timberwolves in the Play-In Tournament - a contest that reached only 210 total points despite being aided by overtime. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as they open the first round against the Grizzlies on Sunday afternoon. Memphis was a shell of its former self defensively down the stretch and I'm not convinced we see it simply 'flip the switch' here. The Grizzlies check in having allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Of those 11 opponents, six made good on 44 or more field goals. On the flip side, Memphis found its rhythm offensively, knocking down at least 40 field goals in 14 of its last 15 contests. Since March 15th, we've seen the Grizzlies post consecutive 'under' results only once (I point that out as their most recent game did stay 'under' the total) and only one of those two contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with on Sunday. The Lakers had an off shooting night against the T'Wolves last time out but were in line for some regression after making good on 45 or more field goals in each of their previous seven games. Defensively, the Lakers had yielded 40 or more made field goals in an incredible 16 straight games before holding the T'Wolves to only 36 on Tuesday (note that Minnesota was severely limited offensively in that game with Anthony Edwards banged-up and rendered ineffective and Rudy Gobert sidelined due to suspension). Los Angeles has allowed an average of 45-of-94 shooting on the road this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento over Golden State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting the Warriors to simply 'flip the switch' and play competitive basketball on the road in these playoffs but I'm not so easily convinced. Golden State actually had just nine wins in 39 road games before beating this same Kings squad (in a game where it rested most of its starters) and a down-trodden, injury-riddled Blazers team last week. Even in that win over the Kings, the Warriors still managed to get off only 78 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Warriors, despite fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch, still allowed each of their last six opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. The Kings figure to be poised to take advantage, noting that they average 45 made field goals per contest (on only 88 FG attempts per game) here at home this season. The Warriors won last week's meeting SU and ATS but haven't posted consecutive ATS victories in this series since late 2021. Here, we'll note that the Kings are 21-12 ATS off a loss this season and 12-1 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS, as is the case here. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I just think the Timberwolves are a mess right now in all regards and don't really understand the logic behind them being favored by such a considerable margin in this play-in game against the pesky Thunder. Yes, Oklahoma City continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses. The Thunder prevailed on Wednesday in New Orleans despite allowing the Pelicans to knock down 42-of-87 field goal attempts. I'm not convinced the T'Wolves are as well-positioned to take advantage of Oklahoma City's current defensive transgressions, however. Anthony Edwards is a shell of his former self due to late-season injuries and shot a miserable 6-of-17 from the field in Tuesday's loss to the Lakers. It remains to be seen if Rudy Gobert will return after serving his one-game suspension as he deals with a bad back. The Thunder are a taxing opponent to face right now as they continue to push the pace, hoisting up 93, 97, 90 and 92 field goal attempts over their last four games. It's been a struggle for the T'Wolves to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting 85 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games including only 83 in Tuesday's overtime contest against the Lakers. Minnesota has picked a bad time to go in the tank offensively, making good on 41 or fewer field goals in six of its last seven games. It has also struggled to slow down the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in seven straight contests (aided by overtime last time out). While the T'Wolves have taken three of four meetings with the Thunder this season they haven't covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series since last season (they won the most recent meeting ATS on December 16th). Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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04-12-23 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 226 | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and New Orleans at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter this play-in matchup on the heels of consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in New Orleans. The Thunder have been relentlessly pushing the pace regardless who has been in or out of the lineup in recent weeks, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in 11 of their last 15 games and 92 or more in 10 of those contests. Unfortunately it has come at the expense of their defensive play it seems as they've allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. While not known for their offensive prowess, the Pelicans appear well-positioned to take advantage having made good on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 18 games overall. While New Orleans got into this play-in tournament thanks in large part to its terrific defense down the stretch, we did see a three-game lull in which it yielded 42, 46 and 50 made field goals earlier this month. It followed that up by holding the Knicks and T'Wolves to just 38 and 39 made field goals in its final two regular season contests but those two opponents still managed to score 105 and 113 points. The Pelicans figure to have their hands full here, noting that the Thunder have averaged an impressive average of 124.5 points per game when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-3 in that situation, resulting in an average total of 243.7 points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors managed to close out their regular season on a high note by blowing out the undermanned Bucks on Sunday, snapping a two-game skid in the process. I'm just not sold on this Toronto team, noting that nothing seemed to come easy for it all season, going an even 40-40 ATS (excluding pushes) and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just 1.5 points. The Bulls were almost a mirror-image during the regular season, going 42-39 ATS while outscoring opponents by 1.3 points on average. I fully expect a tightly-contested affair between these familiar foes on Wednesday and will grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Note that Toronto did take the most recent meeting 104-98 here at home in late February. That's notable as the Raptors haven't won consecutive games against the Bulls since reeling off an incredible 12 straight victories in the series from 2017 to 2020. They haven't posted two ATS wins in a row over Chicago since March and October of 2019. Thanks to a defense that checks in having held 10 of its last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, I do think the Bulls are capable of hanging with anyone on any given night. The Raps have been similarly tough to break down defensively but that only lends itself to a reasonably low-scoring game here and in that situation, I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with Chicago. Note that Toronto is just 9-21 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by just 0.5 points on average in that situation. Take Chicago (8*). |
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04-11-23 | Hawks +5 v. Heat | Top | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat easily disposed of the Hawks in the opening round of last year's Playoffs and while it's been a long time coming, Atlanta finally has a chance to get its revenge when it really matters in Tuesday's Play-In Tournament opener. Yes, these two teams met four times during the regular season with Miami taking three of those four contests as well. The Hawks know they can hang with the Heat though. Their back-to-back losses here in Miami in early March came by a combined 10 points. Interestingly, the Heat were favored by only 2.5 points in the latter of those two contests. Here, Atlanta is arguably healthier than it was then - the healthiest it has been all season in fact. While the Hawks do come in off consecutive losses, their final regular season affair was a throwaway game against the Celtics where their starters sat. Prior to dropping their final two regular season contests they had won three games in a row. They enter this game having made good on 43 or more field goals in five straight games and more than 40 in an incredible 17 of their last 18 contests. While the Heat are known for their defense, they actually haven't held an opponent to fewer than 100 points since February 27th. You would have to go all the way back to mid-January to find the last time they held an opponent under 100 points and won by more than four points. Interestingly, Miami was actually held under 100 points itself in three of its last 11 regular season contests. While the Hawks are by no means an elite defensive team and haven't been in recent years, you would have to go back a whopping 18 meetings in this series to find the last time Miami knocked down more than 43 field goals. The Hawks breezed past that mark in two of the last three matchups in this series. Finally, we'll note that Atlanta is 16-4 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.0 points. Meanwhile, the Heat check in a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games this season, which is the situation here, outscored by 8.3 points on average in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-07-23 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a very low-scoring game by today's NBA standards between these two teams on this same floor two nights ago as the Celtics scrapped their way to a 97-93 victory in a tough back-to-back situation. Here, I expect a lot more offense as the two teams get ready for the postseason but perhaps lack defensive intensity with little to play for at this point. The Raptors will certainly want to get back on track offensively after a dismal showing on Wednesday. They shot 6-of-33 from three-point range in that contest, noting that they average 11 made threes per game this season. The pace was still there as they hoisted up 90 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that they've gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven games overall. The Celtics are coming off consecutive poor offensive performances, including a 38-of-91 showing from the field in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Like the Raptors, the Celtics have continued to push the pace here late in the season, hoisting up 89 or more FG attempts in each of their last eight contests. While Boston is thought of as an elite defensive team, that hasn't necessarily been the case lately as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts and allows an average of 42 made field goals per game at home this season. The C's could be without two of their top defenders on Friday with Derrick White and Marcus Smart questionable to play as they employ some 'load management' in the late going. Take the over (10*). |
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04-06-23 | Blazers v. Spurs OVER 230 | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have struggled at the best of times defensively and neither has much incentive to ratchet up the defensive intensity for Thursday's 'meaningless' matchup in San Antonio. With that being said, both teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and I feel that's affording us a very reasonable total to work with on Thursday. The Blazers have actually found some rhythm offensively despite missing so many key contributors. They've knocked down 40, 43 and 42 field goals over their last three games and have been comfortable pushing the pace more than they had been previously, hoisting up 85, 93 and 97 field goal attempts in those most recent three contests. They'll have a prime opportunity to build on those encouraging performances in San Antonio on Thursday as the Spurs have been sieve-like defensively, allowing 43 or more made field goals in an incredible 12 straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall. The only reason they gave up 'only' 43 made field goals last time out was due to the lopsided nature of their game against the Suns (Phoenix attempted only 89 field goals). In what projects as a much closer affair here, we can anticipate the Blazers getting well into the 90's in terms of FG attempts. The Spurs had their streak of three straight games knocking down at least 42 field goals snapped last time out. They'll take a major step down in class after facing the Suns in that matchup, however. Portland has allowed six of its last seven opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals despite four of those foes getting off 87 or fewer FG attempts. Note that the Spurs have hoisted up 90 or more FG attempts in seven straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-05-23 | Bulls +8 v. Bucks | Top | 92-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We'll fade the Bucks off consecutive double-digit wins over the 76ers and Wizards as they return home in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday night. Chicago is in a back-to-back situation of its own after dropping a lopsided home decision against the Hawks last night. I can't help but feel the Bulls overlooked a Trae Young-less Atlanta squad. The Hawks were actually held to just 86 field goal attempts in that game - the eighth straight contest in which Chicago limited the opposition to 86 or fewer field goal attempts - but quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 48 of them. I certainly don't expect the Bulls to overlook the mighty Bucks here. Note that Chicago is 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an impressive average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a long-term 103-144 ATS when playing at home after winning three of their last four games, which is the situation here, and 113-147 ATS when returning home following a road victory. Note that while the Bucks are coming off consecutive wins, they've only won three games in a row once going back to March 11th. Chicago has lost consecutive contests only once since March 8th. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-04-23 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 243.5 | 125-136 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NBA board (at the time of writing) but I don't believe it is warranted. Oklahoma City checks in off a high-scoring 'over' result against the Suns on Sunday. Keep in mind, the Thunder haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since March 16th and 19th. They were actually held to just 36-of-88 from the field in that double-digit loss on Sunday and have knocked down 42 or less field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, they've limited three of their last five opponents to 82 made field goals or fewer. The Warriors dropped a 112-110 decision in Denver on Sunday. They've allowed each of their last seven opponents to knock down 44 or fewer made field goals despite four of those foes hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. The 'over' has cashed in just four of their last 12 games overall. I understand the logic behind the lofty total here, noting that each of the previous three meetings between these two teams this season totalled at least 248 points. I simply feel we'll see a reversal of that trend here, noting that the Warriors have posted a 12-24 o/u record when playing at home off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 221.8 points. Take the under (8*). |
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04-04-23 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers predictably had their two-game winning streak snapped in Milwaukee on Sunday as the Bucks were in line for a big bounce-back performance after an embarrassing blowout loss at home against the Celtics three nights earlier. Here, I look for Philadelphia to get back on track as it hosts Boston, which comes off consecutive wins of its own and plays the front half of a back-to-back set culminating with a home game against Toronto on Wednesday. The 76ers continue to clamp down defensively, having held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a much different story for the Celtics, who have allowed 96 or more field goal attempts in each of their last four contests. While Boston has admittedly been red hot offensively it has been idle since Friday and isn't likely to afford itself nearly as many scoring opportunities as it has seen recently (91 or more FG attempts in six straight games). Note that while the Celtics are a perfect 3-0 in this series this season, they've gotten off just 82, 76 and 86 FG attempts in those three games. All three contests could have gone either way given they were all decided by single-digit margins, including a narrow three-point C's win here in Philadelphia back on February 25th. Note that the 76ers are 19-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.4 points. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. My handicap of this matchup is fairly straight-forward. When we last saw these two teams in the Final Four on Saturday, San Diego was fortunate to escape with a one-point win on a buzzer-beater against Florida Atlantic while Connecticut was never really challenged in a dominant double-digit victory over Miami. I can't help but feel that leaves the Aztecs a little undervalued here as I like the way they match up against the Huskies. San Diego State is capable of defending the perimeter and making UConn work for every basket, effectively able to shorten proceedings thanks to its methodical nature, not to mention its fundamentally-sound defense. Note that the Aztecs rank fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, having faced the 16th toughest slate of offensive opponents (both according to KenPom). While UConn has run the table against non-conference opponents, it also faced just the 210th most difficult non-conference schedule. In stark contrast, San Diego State went up against the 17th toughest non-conference slate. Lines are obviously going to be extremely tight at this stage of the tournament. I've become a fan of San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher over the course of this tournament and like the fact that the Aztecs have gone 44-31 ATS when coming off an ATS loss under his guidance, as is the case here. UConn enters this game on the heels of five straight ATS wins and the last time it accomplished that feat it lost its next game outright as a four-point favorite in the Big East Tournament against Marquette. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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04-02-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 233.5 | Top | 134-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Sunday's contest riding three-game 'under' streaks but I look for a reversal of that trend here. Houston has had a tougher time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in four of its last five games after eclipsing that mark five of its previous six contests. The outlier was a game in Brooklyn where the Rockets shot 46-of-98 from the field but still scored 'only' 114 points. Defensively, I like the fact that Houston has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities somewhat lately, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games overall. Los Angeles has displayed a different offensive dynamic since Lebron James returned to the lineup. The Lakers have a lot of mouths to feed offensively but its been Lebron that has absorbed the majority of the opportunities. Note that Los Angeles has shot 50% or better from the field in three straight games, knocking down exactly 45 field goals in back-to-back contests heading into this one. It's not as if the Lakers have been playing at a break-neck pace - they've gotten off 90 or more FG attempts just three times in their last 11 games, topping out at 91 over that stretch (in a game where they scored 'only' 116 points leading to a total of 227 against Oklahoma City). Discipline has been key defensively as Los Angeles hasn't allowed more than 118 points in any of its last 11 games despite all 11 of those opponents knocking down 40 or more field goals. The Lakers allowed 114 points the last time they faced the Rockets on March 15th but that was on a blistering 47-of-89 shooting and that contest still stayed 'under' the total with only 224 points scored. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-23 | Wizards v. Knicks UNDER 222.5 | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Knicks stunning rout of the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Friday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as New York returns home to host an undermanned Wizards squad on Sunday. Washington is coming off consecutive 'over' results but both of those contests were played at home, where the Wiz have played at a much faster tempo lately. Note that Washington has gotten off just 81, 84, 76, 83 and 86 field goal attempts in its last five road games. In those last two contests played at home the Wiz hoisted up 99 and 105 FG attempts. I mentioned Washington has posted consecutive 'over' results and that's notable as it hasn't recorded three straight 'overs' since February 28th to March 4th and that streak was aided by an overtime game against Toronto. To find the last time the Wiz were involved in three straight 'over' results not aided by overtime you would have to go all the way back to January 3rd to 9th. Their longest 'over' streak of the season lasted only four games and that came way back in November. The Knicks exploded offensively on Friday but keep in mind they're just one game removed from knocking down only 38 field goals, albeit on just 76 FG attempts, against Miami. In fact, New York has been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 12 games overall. Defensively, the Knicks have held seven straight opponents to 47 or fewer FG attempts. While New York is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series, it hasn't eclipsed 117 points in any of those six contests. Take the under (8*). |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Connecticut at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Miami has now seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total, matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it came off three consecutive 'over' results, its next contest totalled only 134 points in a narrow loss to Duke back on January 21st. Last time out, the Canes couldn't miss from the field (they ended up shooting 59%) in a come-from-behind win over Texas. The Longhorns inexplicably decided to run with the Canes and did find some success offensively, knocking down 30-of-60 field goal attempts themselves but it wasn't enough. I don't think we'll see Connecticut push the pace nearly as much here, noting it ranks outside the top-200 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). While the Huskies have been red hot offensively, I don't think their best chance at winning this game comes by getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with Miami. The Canes are certainly in line for some regression offensively after scoring 85+ points and knocking down 34, 31 an 29 field goals over their last three games. Keep in mind, this is the same team that narrowly avoided the upset against Drake in the opening round, scoring only 63 points on 17-of-56 shooting in that contest. Lost in UConn's tremendous run offensively is the fact that it has been playing exceptional defense. You would have to go back nine games, all the way to February 25th against St. John's, to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 24 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with Miami playing away from home after allowing 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 134.9 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 7-1 with UConn playing away from home after winning three or more games in a row ATS this season, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 132.4 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 231 | 138-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings scored 120 points without barely breaking a sweat in their 120-80 win here in Portland two nights ago. If this game is even remotely more competitive (as I expect it to be), there's a good chance we see Sacramento absolutely go off offensively. The Blazers truly can't be any worse than they were in Wednesday's game. On a positive note, they did get off 93 field goal attempts so the scoring opportunities were there and should continue to be there on Friday, noting that the Kings have allowed 91, 88, 92, 89, 91, 86 and 93 field goal attempts over their last seven games, still yielding 119 points in the lone outlier in which they held the T'Wolves to 86. Prior to Wednesday's contest, Sacramento had allowed six consecutive opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Blazers coming off a loss by 15 points or more this season, resulting in an average total of 234.7 points scored in that situation. Take the over (8*). |
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03-31-23 | Pistons +5 v. Rockets | 115-121 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this game on Friday. The Pistons have at least continued to play some defense, allowing 38, 44, 41, 45 and 39 made field goals over their last five games but in the three occasions where the opposition got into the 40's, they also got off 92 or more field goal attempts. It's a different story for Houston. It has allowed a ridiculous 50 or more made field goals in two of its last four games. On the flip side, the Rockets have knocked down 42 or more field goals in consecutive games but haven't hit 40+ in three straight contests since doing so in five straight games from March 9th to 17th - a stretch that saw them win three games outright (they've lost seven straight games since). Noting that they're 49-30 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, we'll back the revenge-minded Pistons here (they lost the first meeting this season by three points at home in late-January). Take Detroit (8*). |
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03-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and in the case of the Cavs, back-to-back 'unders'. Cleveland could be missing Jarrett Allen for a second straight game which is critical to their defensive play and rebounding in particular. I suspect if he misses the Knicks will afford themselves a great deal more scoring opportunities after being limited to only 76 field goal attempts against Miami on Wednesday. Of course, New York has its own injury issues with Julius Randle now sidelined. The Knicks undoubtedly have the scoring depth to pick up the slack, however. They'll need to 'keep up' with the Cavs here, noting that Cleveland has made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games with the only exception coming in a blowout win over the Rockets where it eased off the gas in the fourth quarter (we won with the 'under' in that game). While the Knicks did limit the Heat to just 35-of-79 shooting on Wednesday, they had previously allowed five straight and 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 40 field goals. This has been a low-scoring series recently with the last two meetings staying 'under' the total. It's worth noting though that we haven't seen three or more consecutive matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total since 2017-18. Take the over (8*). |
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03-30-23 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | Top | 140-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks check in off consecutive high-scoring affairs in road wins over the Pistons and Pacers but should face a great deal more resistance in this back-to-back spot against a rested Celtics squad. Boston is coming off a high-scoring game of its own as it inexplicably allowed 130 points in a rout at the hands of the short-handed Wizards in Washington two nights ago. Perhaps that result was to be expected after the Celtics were lulled into a sense of complacency following three straight blowout wins. Here, I look for Boston to tighten things up, noting that it has still held five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While you wouldn't know it by their last few games, the Bucks can play some defense, especially here at home where they've limited the opposition to 42-of-93 shooting on average this season. In games that project as ultra-competitive (with the line between +3 and -3 as is the case here at the time of writing), the Bucks have posted a 17-29 o/u record over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 223.4 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 235 | 120-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take advantage of the reasonable total being offered here thanks to the Kings coming off consecutive 'under' results and the Blazers riding a three-game 'under' streak into Wednesday's contest. The Kings are healthy again and figure to go off offensively against a Blazers squad that has been matador-like since losing the bulk of its starters to injuries, allowing 48, 41 and 49 made field goals over their last three games. The outlier over that stretch came in a contest where they still allowed 118 points against the Thunder. While Portland has unsurprisingly struggled to generate consistent offense without the likes of Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons, there is reason for optimism entering this matchup. The Kings have been vulnerable defensively in recent games, lit up for 46, 49, 48, 47 and 44 made field goals over their last five contests. There's a fairly high probability they'll struggle to ramp up the defensive intensity in this uninspiring matchup when you consider Portland could only muster 90 points against New Orleans last time out. I simply feel this total will prove too low noting the Blazers have seen more than three consecutive games stay 'under' the total only once previously this season with that four-game 'under' streak coming back in late-December. Take the over (8*). |
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03-29-23 | Lakers v. Bulls UNDER 225.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It was a struggle for the Lakers to just get shots off, let alone knock them down in Lebron James' return to the lineup on Sunday against Chicago. Los Angeles hoisted up only 75 field goal attempts in that double-digit loss, yet the game still found its way 'over' the total. It's worth noting that the Lakers haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since way back on February 4th and 7th. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of their last six games, getting off 78 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. The Bulls are coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against the Clippers in the back half of a back-to-back on Monday. Perhaps they were a little too 'fat and happy' after winning the first two games on their road trip in lopsided fashion. Here, I expect Chicago to lock back in defensively, noting that it has still held 16 of its last 22 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, it's not easy to speed up the Bulls offense, noting that even in a game where they trailed most of the way against the Clippers on Monday, they still hoisted up only 82 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 16-4 with the Lakers playing on the road off a double-digit home loss as a favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-14 with the Bulls coming off a loss this season and 15-6 when that defeat came on the road. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UABÂ OVER 151.5 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-28-23 | Magic +8.5 v. Grizzlies | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between these non-conference opponents on Tuesday as the Magic look to extend their three-game winning streak while the Grizzlies aim for their seventh consecutive victory. The Grizzlies have been red hot offensively, knocking down 45 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. On the flip side, however, they also seem to be developing some bad habits defensively, having yielded 48, 47 and 45 made field goals over their last three contests. After facing the likes of the Rockets (twice) and Hawks over their last three games, the Magic might just resemble the early-2000's Pistons to the Grizzlies here. Orlando has held three of its last four opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Magic offense has thrived, knocking down 40 or more field goals in each of their last 13 contests. Take Orlando (8*). |
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03-28-23 | Cavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are riding a four-game winning streak, having gone 3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think that streak comes to an end on Tuesday, however, as they face a tougher challenge in the Hawks after going against the Wizards, Nets (twice) and Rockets over their last four games. Atlanta enters this game on a tear offensively. It has knocked down at least 44 field goals in an incredible eight straight and 10 of its last 11 games overall. Of course, the Hawks defense is far from elite and they've also given up 45, 52 and 48 made field goals over their last three contests. I think they catch a bit of a break here, however, as they go up against a slow-paced Cavs squad that has topped out at 42 made field goals over their last three games and hasn't hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts since March 6th. While Atlanta is just 3-3 over its last six games, it hasn't lost consecutive contests since March 11th and 13th (it comes off a loss against Memphis here). Also note that the Hawks have dropped the cash in consecutive games only once this entire month (7-6 ATS in March). Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 220 | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are as locked-in defensively as any team in the NBA right now having held five straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. They figure to continue their strong play at that end of the floor here as they take on the Paul George-less Clippers on Monday. Since losing George to injury last week, the Clips have played twice, splitting those two games and getting off just 84 and 75 field goal attempts. They actually shot considerably well in both contests but I don't expect a similar story to unfold here. Los Angeles is favored for a reason in this spot, though, with Chicago unlikely to shoot the lights out the way it has in the first two games of its current road trip. Despite scoring 124 and 118 points over their last two games, the Bulls have still gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight contests. I can't help but think Los Angeles will be set on keeping the pace to a minimum here after allowing the Pelicans to shoot 51-of-96 from the field in Saturday's blowout loss. Note that the only previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 211 points as the Clips won (and covered) in Chicago, limiting the Bulls to only 77 FG attempts in that victory. We're working with a lower posted total this time around, but I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the under (8*). |
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03-26-23 | Rockets v. Cavs UNDER 225 | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Rockets shot a blistering 51.6% and 54% from the field in consecutive losses in Memphis earlier this week but I expect nothing of the sort as they continue their road trip (and likely their losing streak) in Cleveland on Sunday. There's really been nothing special about the Rockets offense lately, they simply had a couple of strong performances against an opponent that didn't necessarily take them all that seriously (in the first game of the two-game set in particular). Note that Houston has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last seven contests. The Cavs rallied for a win in Brooklyn last time out - their third win in a row. Note that Cleveland has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight straight games. Even in their most recent game, where they trailed much of the way and needed to stage a late-game comeback, they still weren't all that interested in really pushing the pace. Defensively, the Cavs are locked-in right now having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and nine of their last 11 foes to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. The only previous time they faced the Rockets this season they yielded just 76 FG attempts in a 113-95 road victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Rockets coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 221.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-29 with Cleveland coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 213.9 points. Take the under (8*). |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-23 | Mavs -10 v. Hornets | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. A quick revenge spot for the down-trodden Mavericks here as they look to snap a three-game losing streak and avenge Friday's stunning nine-point home loss against the Hornets. Likely to have their full compliments of players at their disposal, I expect the Mavs to put forth a much sharper performance than we saw on Friday. Keep in mind, that last game against the Hornets came on the heels of consecutive gut-wrenching losses to the Grizzlies and Warriors (by a combined six points). The Mavs overlooked the lowly Hornets, plain and simple. They won't here as this road trip will only get tougher with stops in Indiana, Philadelphia, Miami and Atlanta on deck. The Hornets are without Terry Rozier while Kelly Oubre continues to battle through a shoulder injury (he is expected to play). Here, we'll note that Dallas is 19-5 ATS when playing on the road off an outright upset loss over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -2.5 | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We got the result we wanted from the Bucks last night, winning with them in Utah and also getting a lopsided final score that sets us up nicely for a play on the Nuggets on Saturday. Sweeping a back-to-back set in altitude in Salt Lake City and Denver is never easy and I don't expect that to be any different for the mighty Bucks. Milwaukee is rolling offensively right now but almost certainly in for some regression after knocking down 51 and 55 field goals in its last two games. Note that it got off 98 and 99 field goal attempts in those two contests but Denver has held four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The Nuggets have yielded just 39, 41, 38 and 44 made field goals in their last four contests with the high-water mark coming in a 118-104 win over the Wizards last time out. Offensively, Denver is well-positioned to go off in this game. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in each of its last seven games, finally fully healthy. The Bucks have yielded at least 93 FG attempts in an incredible 11 straight games with six of their opponents getting off at least 100. The Nuggets did drop the first meeting between these two teams this season but that came in Milwaukee, without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, and it came by just eight points as a 10-point underdog. Take Denver (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga OVER 153.5 | 82-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Gonzaga at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. While I'm not a big proponent of backing the 'over' in the Elite Eight after the Sweet 16 proved so high-scoring (six of eight games went 'over' the total), I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough. Gonzaga is approaching uncharted territory defensively right now as it has matched a season-high by holding eight straight opponents to 30 made field goals of fewer. The only previous time it reached that mark it allowed 81 points on 31 made field goals in a game that totalled 169 points against BYU in mid-February. Note that the Bulldogs have allowed more than 30 made field goals on seven previous occasions this season and those contests have totalled 167, 172, 190, 199, 157, 169 and 185 points. Connecticut figures to test the Zags defense here, noting that the Huskies are arguably the hottest offensive team still playing in this tournament. Since February 22nd, they've knocked down 30 or more field goals in five of nine games with the low-water mark being 25 made field goals in a game where they still scored 71 points. Defensively, UConn has also been on point but has certainly benefited from the opposition it has faced in this tourney. First, it went against an overmatched MAAC squad in Iona. Then came a matchup with slow-paced Saint Mary's and finally an injury-plagued Arkansas squad that looked lost after the first few minutes on Thursday. Here, I do think we'll see the Zags give the Huskies a stiff test and I think that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Nets v. Heat UNDER 222.5 | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Nets 'over' in the front half of their two-game set with the Cavs earlier this week (the second matchup went 'over' the total as well). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Brooklyn heads to Miami to face the surging Heat on Saturday, however. Note that the Nets squeezed about as much as they could out of their offense last time out but still produced 'only' 114 points in a narrow loss to Cleveland. Brooklyn has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of its last five games. On a positive note, the Nets have topped out at 42 made field goals allowed over their last four contests, limiting all four of those opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Heat have settled back into their preferred style and that involves a methodical pace as they've hoisted up 82 or fewer FG attempts in five straight games. Only twice over that stretch did they manage to knock down more than 38 field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off more than 82 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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03-24-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Lakers | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Lakers off their big home win over the Suns two nights ago. That marked Los Angeles' second straight victory but it remains just 1-2-1 ATS over its last four contests. The Lakers have had a tough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up 84, 78 and 70 field goal attempts over their last three games and now go up against a Thunder defense that can certainly hang and figures to be in a foul mood after allowing the Clippers to connect on 42-of-90 field goal attempts, without Paul George no less, in a lopsided affair last night. Of course, perhaps a letdown was to be expected from the Thunder after they notched a 101-100 victory over the same Clips two nights earlier. This will be Oklahoma City's third straight game in Los Angeles and it has looked reasonably comfortable - even in last night's loss it still made good on 41-of-93 FG attempts, the fifth time in the last six games it managed to get off at least 93 FG attempts. It remains to be seen whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be able to play on Friday as he recovers from an abdominal injury. We'll treat it as a bonus if he can go but will make this play assuming he'll be sidelined. The Thunder have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss. They haven't dropped consecutive games since enduring a five-game skid from February 23rd to March 1st. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a woeful 4-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home win over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by just 2.0 points on average in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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03-24-23 | Bucks -8.5 v. Jazz | Top | 144-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Jazz are in tough right now with both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen sidelined. They did manage to win without that duo on Monday against the Kings but followed it up with a double-digit loss to the Blazers on Wednesday (with Markkanen in the lineup). Utah is now in uncharted territory offensively as it has scored 115 points or more in eight straight games - its longest such streak of the season. Here, it will be tested, however, as the Bucks have held three of their last four opponents under that number. Milwaukee has limited only three of its last seven opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals but that's not all bad when you consider the shot volume it has been yielding. The Bucks have allowed at least 93 field goal attempts in each of their last nine games. Only one of Milwaukee's last six opponents has managed to shoot better than 44.4% from the field. The Jazz check in having allowed 40 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. The only occasion where they didn't over that stretch came in a game where they held Miami to just 79 FG attempts but still gave up 119 points in a losing effort. The Bucks, even without Khris Middleton, should be able to get loose given Utah has yielded 93 or more FG attempts in four of its last six contests. One thing Milwaukee doesn't lack in is scoring depth so the absence of Middleton can certainly be managed. Here, we'll note that the Bucks are a long-term 53-32 ATS when playing on the road as a favorite of between 6.5 and 12.5 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jazz are a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, allowing a whopping 121.4 points per game in that spot. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston UNDER 138.5 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*). |
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03-24-23 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 228 | 124-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The last time these two teams met in January in San Antonio we saw a closing total of 240 points. That game failed to reach that number but did surpass the total we're working with in Friday's rematch. Of course, injuries are playing a big role in the adjustment of this total. San Antonio has been flooring a makeshift roster on any given night due to injury (tanking) management. Meanwhile, the Wizards are without two of their best offensive threats in Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal. With that being said, I think we see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Wiz offense here. They've actually knocked down 41, 42 and 44 field goals over their last three games with the latter performance coming without Kuzma and Beal. They only managed to reach 104 points in a loss to the Nuggets last time out as Denver led most of the way and was able to limit the pace (Washington got off only 84 field goal attempts). While we haven't seen it lately, I do think Washington would prefer to go up-tempo and will undoubtedly be afforded that opportunity against a hapless Spurs defense that has yielded 95 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in five of its last seven games. On the flip side, San Antonio is coming off consecutive dismal offensive showings, scoring just 84 and 94 points in blowout losses in New Orleans and Milwaukee. Note that the Spurs are expected to have a number of key offensive contributors back in the lineup on Friday, including Keldon Johnson. San Antonio has hoisted up 93 or more FG attempts in three of its last four contests while the Wizards have allowed 48, 48, 43 and 42 made field goals over their last four games. Finally, I'll point out that while the Spurs enter on a three-game 'under' streak, they've yet to see four straight contests stay 'under' the total this season with the 'over' going 3-0 on the previous three occasions where they followed three 'unders' in a row. Take the over (8*). |
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03-23-23 | Arkansas v. Connecticut OVER 139.5 | 65-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas and Connecticut at 7:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Arkansas' SEC Tournament swan song against Texas A&M two weeks ago and since then, the Razorbacks have rattled off two more 'under' results in NCAA Tournament action. I look for that three-game 'under' streak to come to an end on Thursday, however, as the Hogs take on Connecticut in a Sweet 16 matchup. Arkansas staged an improbable upset of Kansas last Saturday despite getting just four points combined on 1-of-10 shooting from pro prospects Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black. Smith contributed only four points in the first two tourney games. Of course, he hasn't necessarily been the same player since returning from a knee injury that has plagued him for much of the season but the fact is, he scored in double-figures in seven straight games leading up to this tournament so there's reason to be confident that he can chip in a whole lot more here on the second weekend of the tournament. Black re-aggravated a foot injury against Kansas but all indications are that he'll play here. He's been playing through the pain and entered the Kansas game having scored in double-figures in four of the last five contests. Again, expect more out of him offensively in this one even if the foot injury does limit his quickness (I believe it's more of a concern at the defensive end of the floor). On the flip side, Connecticut has been one of the hottest offensive teams in the country in recent weeks, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games and scoring 87 or more points on four occasions in the last month alone. The Huskies were able to bully overmatched Iona and Saint Mary's offenses last weekend but I expect them to have their hands full here. Note that Arkansas, even with its key injuries, has made good on more than 20 field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 20 games overall. Defensively, the Hogs have allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals with the lone exception coming in their NCAA Tourney opener against Illinois - a game that still reached 136 total points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with UConn coming off a game in which it allowed 55 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 154 points. The 'over' is also 17-8 with the Huskies having held consecutive opponents to 65 points or less over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 145.1 points in that spot. Take the over (8*). |
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03-23-23 | Knicks v. Magic UNDER 229.5 | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results but neither of those games necessarily saw the pace to warrant those outcomes. Last night, both the Knicks and Heat shot the lights out in New York's 127-120 loss in Miami. New York will have a difficult time reproducing that performance here, noting that it averages 'only' 110.7 points per game when playing the second of back-to-back nights over the last two seasons (those 22 contests have totalled an average of 217.9 points). After getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in three of four games from March 5th to 11th, the Knicks have hoisted up 88 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five contests. The Magic were involved in a relatively high-scoring game against the struggling Wizards two nights ago. Neither team got off more than 83 FG attempts in that one. Orlando has been limited to 86 or fewer FG attempts in three of its last four contests. To say that the Magic have struggled offensively against the Knicks going back to the start of last season would be an understatement. They've knocked down just 37, 36, 30 and 39 field goals in the last four meetings, topping out at 104 points in those games. Take the under (8*). |
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03-22-23 | Suns -1 v. Lakers | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I like the spot here for the struggling Suns as they check in having lost four of their last five games SU and all five ATS but all is not lost. They're still sitting in second place in the Pacific Division and fourth in the Western Conference. You would assume Phoenix would be struggling mightily at the offensive end of the floor with Kevin Durant and now DeAndre Ayton sidelined but that hasn't necessarily been the case. The Suns put up 120 points in Sunday's narrow loss to the Thunder and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in an incredible nine straight games and 40 or more in 14 consecutive contests. The issue has been their defensive play but I believe that can be rectified in fairly short order. Here, we'll note that the Suns have allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (54-game sample size) and 107.2 ppg when that loss came on the road (33-game sample size), as is the case here. The Lakers have topped out at 111 points over their last three games - that performance coming in the 'Austin Reaves game' on Sunday against the road-weary Magic. Note that Los Angeles has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last four contests. Like the Suns, the Lakers have also had a tough time defensively in recent weeks, allowing 46, 42, 42, 47, 40 and 41 made field goals over their last six games. Note that they're a woeful 13-27 ATS when playing at home after a home win over the last three seasons. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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03-22-23 | Utah Valley v. Cincinnati OVER 147.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Utah Valley State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a couple of predictably low-scoring affairs in NIT quarter-final action last night but I expect a much different story to unfold as Cincinnati and Utah Valley State do battle in the second half of Wednesday's double-header. Utah Valley State succeeded in speeding up a favored Colorado team that probably would have preferred a slower tempo (with its 30th-ranked defense) on Sunday, pulling away for a convincing 81-69 victory in Boulder. I don't think the Wolverines will have any difficult coaxing red hot Cincinnati into an up-tempo affair here, noting that the Bearcats rank 114th (out of 364 Division I teams) in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The difference is, Cincinnati can take advantage of that fast pace, noting that it ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). The Bearcats have incredibly knocked down at least 29 field goals in five of their last six games with the lone outlier coming in their conference championship game against Houston - one of, if not the best defensive team in the country. For their part, the Wolverines enter red hot offensively as well having made good on 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34 and 33 field goals over their last seven contests. Cincinnati has actually seen each of its last four games stay 'under' the total which means it is approaching uncharted territory, noting its longest previous 'under' streak this season lasted five games, that coming back in January. We're starting to see the totals creep downward as a result of the Bearcats 'under' streak, noting that their last two games saw closing numbers of 155 and 150. I believe tonight's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-22-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a double-overtime game two nights ago in Philadelphia with the Bulls pulling out a 109-105 victory. The 76ers haven't shot remotely close to as poorly as they did in that contest since back on February 27th in a 101-99 home loss to the Heat. Note that they followed up that dismal performance with a 119-96 victory in Miami two nights later. I expect the Sixers to bounce back nicely here as well, noting that they're 22-12 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.4 points per game. The Bulls are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, which means they're approaching uncharted territory as they've put together a streak longer than that only once previously, and that lasted just four games back in early January. While Chicago has been winning it has been increasingly reliant on the do of Zach LaVine and Demar Derozan to shoulder the offensive load. I'm confident we'll see the Sixers - an elite defensive team - make the necessary adjustments against that duo here. Even in Monday's overtime loss, the Sixers still held Chicago to fewer than 40 made field goals (39). That marked the fourth time in their last five games they limited the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Philadelphia has knocked down at least 40 field goals in nine of its last 11 contests. James Harden is questionable to play on Wednesday but even if he can't go, I'm confident others can pick up the slack, most notably De'Anthony Melton who has scored in double-figures in five of the last seven games. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia is 18-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bulls are a long-term 113-155 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin +5 v. Oregon | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Oregon at 9 pm et on Tuesday. As high as I've been on Oregon at times this season, I think the time has come to fade the Ducks on Tuesday as they check in as considerable favorites against Wisconsin in NIT quarter-final action. First, it's certainly worth noting that Oregon is dealing with a cluster of injuries at the moment with no fewer than three key contributors questionable to return to the court for Tuesday's game. That's notable especially at this time of year when energy and depth tends to be depleted. The Ducks absences didn't cost them against the likes of Cal-Irvine and UCF but likely will here. Note that Oregon was fortunate that UCF had an off shooting night on Sunday as it made good on just 19-of-62 field goal attempts. The Ducks are playing with fire right now at the defensive end of the floor, having yielded 60, 80 and 62 FG attempts over their last three contests. Wisconsin figures to take advantage, noting that it is playing some of its best offensive basketball of the season now that it's out of the Big Ten. In fact, going back to February 22nd, the Badgers have made good on 25, 30, 23, 27, 21, 25 and 27 field goals and that's despite getting off 58 or fewer FG attempts in five of those seven contests. Defensively, it's been a bit more challenging but the good news is, the Badgers have limited their opponents' scoring opportunities for the most part, allowing 55 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. I do think they can effectively shorten this game with their methodical tempo, which is what you generally want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Only 15 teams have faced a tougher schedule than Wisconsin this season (according to KenPom), noting that the Badgers faced the likes of Dayton, Kansas, USC and Marquette in non-conference action this season, going 3-1 in those four games in particular with the lone loss coming by a single point against Kansas. Oregon, on the other hand, stepped up in class and lost by 10 points against Houston, 24 at the hands of Connecticut and four against Michigan State. Take Wisconsin (10*). |
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03-21-23 | Cavs v. Nets OVER 218 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is the lowest total on Tuesday's NBA board and I believe it will prove too low. The Nets have seen each of their last three contests stay 'under' the total, thanks in large part to their own putrid offensive production. I think they're a far better offensive team than they've shown lately, however. They curiously waved the white flag late in Sunday's game against the Nuggets but I look for them to respond favorably here, noting that they're perhaps catching the Cavs at the right time with Cleveland having allowed five of its last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. The absence of Jarrett Allen has contributed to that and he is expected to return here, but I still think the Nets offense can do some damage, noting that they're more of an outside shooting team, not likely to force much into the teeth of the Cavs defense inside. Cleveland's offense is likely to go off in this spot. The Cavs have made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Meanwhile, the Nets defense has proven vulnerable, allowing 44, 48, 45, 45, 32 and 42 field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch came last week against Sacramento with the Kings struggling to find their shooting legs in the second of back-to-backs off a last-second win in Chicago the night previous. The Nets are approaching uncharted territory off three straight 'under' results here, noting that their longest 'under' streak since their pre-trade deadline dealings lasted four games but two of those four contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. You would have to go back six matchups in this series to find the last time the two teams didn't at least get into the 220's. Take the over (10*). |
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03-20-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Knicks | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams certainly appear to be headed in opposite directions right now with Minnesota off three straight losses and New York checking in following three consecutive wins. The T'Wolves not surprisingly weren't competitive on Saturday in Toronto, playing on the second of back-to-back nights after a double-overtime loss in Chicago the night previous. That loss to the Bulls was multi-faceted as Minnesota also lost Anthony Edwards to what appeared to be a serious ankle injury. It turns out that injury may not be as severe as first thought as he was out of the walking boot on Sunday. While he's unlikely to play on Monday, I still think the T'Wolves can hang. Minnesota has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since dropping a 120-107 decision at home against the Knicks back in November. Note that the T'Wolves are 30-18 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 points in that spot. They're also 15-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.2 points on average in that situation. While the Knicks are 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games, they've won by more than eight points only six times over that stretch. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks OVER 227.5 | Top | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We got the result we wanted from the T'Wolves on Saturday as they scored only 107 points in a lopsided loss in Toronto, clearly reeling after Anthony Edwards suffered a scary injury the night previous in Chicago. Shockingly, Edwards was out of the walking boot on Sunday and is listed a day-to-day. He's unlikely to play on Monday but I do expect the T'Wolves offense to bounce back just the same. Minnesota has averaged an impressive 121.4 points per game when playing on the road in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and the 'over' is an incredible 14-1 when it plays on the road in a three-in-four situation over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 247.0 points in that spot. The Knicks are red hot off three straight wins, knocking down a consistent 42, 42 and 41 field goals over that stretch. They only figure to get stronger in Jalen Brunson's second game back from injury on Monday. Note that the Knicks have averaged an impressive 122.6 points per game with the 'over' going 14-6 when listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season. New York is a good defensive team but I'm not convinced it is elite in that department, having allowed at least 42 made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Knicks haven't been stronger defensively at home compared to on the road by any considerable margin this season, allowing 112.1 points per contest at MSG compared to their season scoring average allowed of 112.2 points per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Miami-FL v. Indiana OVER 145 | 85-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Indiana at 8:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams saw their first round games stay 'under' the total and we won with the 'under' in Indiana's double-digit victory over Kent State. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the Hoosiers take on Miami in the second round on Sunday. It's unlikely the Hurricanes will shoot as poorly as they did in their tournament opener. They knocked down only 17-of-56 field goal attempts in a come-from-behind win over Drake. They had a much larger margin for error against the Missouri Valley Conference champs than they will against Indiana on Sunday. Keep in mind, Miami does still rank 12th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and prior to Friday's contest had made good on 25 or more field goals in an incredible 13 straight games. Indiana certainly checks all the boxes defensively, but I'm not about to consider it elite in that department, sitting 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. You would have to go all the way back to January 31st to find the last time the Hoosiers held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. On the clip side, Indiana is one of the hottest offensive teams in the tournament having made good on 31, 25, 28, 27, 31 and 29 field goals over its last six games. Miami isn't stopping anyone, ranking 114th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Prior to Friday's game, the Hurricanes had allowed 27 or more made field goals in eight straight contests. I realize that this court in Albany has been a nightmare for shooters as a whole but that didn't stop UConn and Iona from combining to score 150 points so I do believe a high-scoring result is well within the realm of possibility here. Take the over (8*). |
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03-19-23 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. While the Bucks always garner plenty of attention, I'm not sure many are paying close attention to the style they're employing right now. It's quite fascinating actually. Milwaukee has allowed seven straight opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts with five of those foes hoisting up 100+. The Raptors aren't likely to shy away from an up-tempo affair here as they're feeling it, winners of three games in a row having gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five straight contests. While Toronto has posted terrific defensive numbers during its current three-game winning streak, it's worth noting that those victories came against a reeling Nuggets squad, the Thunder who were in a difficult back-to-back spot and the T'Wolves without Anthony Edwards and also in a back-to-back situation. Also note that all three of those games came at home. There's no denying the Raps are red hot offensively. They've made good on 46, 49, 47 and 48 field goals over their last four games. The last time these two teams matched up on this same floor in January we saw 141 first half points in a game that finished north of 250. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida Atlantic minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. I have no problem with laying the lofty number of points with Florida Atlantic here, even after Fairleigh Dickinson shocked number-one seed Purdue in its tournament opener on Friday. FDU still checks in ranked 274th in the country according to KenPom - most glaring is the fact that the Knights are 353rd (out of 364 teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency, despite having faced the 362 most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' offensive efficiency. It's obviously extremely rare for a 16-seed to prevail over a one-seed, even moreso when it shoots worse than 39% from the field as FDU did against Purdue. That upset had everything to do with the Big Ten champs looking right past the Knights, and paying the price for it. I don't expect Florida Atlantic to take anything for granted here - after all, it is coming off an 'upset' win of its own over highly-touted Memphis in the opening round. While the Owls didn't necessarily have their shooting legs under them, they still afforded themselves plenty of scoring opportunities - 65 field goal attempts to be exact. They've knocked down at least 25 field goals in an incredible 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Owls are certainly no strangers to blowout victories, with five wins by 20+ points to their credit over their last eight games alone. Take Florida Atlantic (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Michigan State +3 v. Marquette | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Marquette at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. Marquette put on a shooting clinic in its double-digit win and cover against Vermont in the opening round. That marked its third straight ATS victory. Note that the Golden Eagles have reeled off four or more consecutive ATS wins on two previous occasions this season but to keep those streaks intact beyond three in a row they faced a pair of disappointing teams in Georgetown and Villanova. This time around they'll be up against Michigan State, which is essentially playing with 'house money', dancing on to the second round as a double-digit loss team but having faced the sixth most difficult schedule in the country this season (according to KenPom). In stark contrast, Marquette has faced the 42nd toughest slate of opponents this season, including 196th in non-conference play. Firmly planted in uncharted territory having won a season-high 10 consecutive games (its previous longest win streak was five), we'll fade the Golden Eagles here. Take Michigan State (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Kings v. Wizards OVER 235.5 | 132-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have seen the first two games of their current road trip stay 'under' the total but I look for a reversal of that trend on Saturday as they stop in Washington to face the Wizards, who find themselves in a back-to-back spot off last night's blowout loss in Cleveland. The Wizards were a virtual no-show last night, knocking down only 35-of-76 field goal attempts in the 23-point loss. Washington's defense has regressed considerably lately as it has allowed more than 40 made field goals in five of its last six games. Sacramento has inexplicably shot poorly over its last two games but I do expect it to 'get right' here. Note that while Washington put forth an abysmal offensive effort against an elite Cleveland defense last night, it has knocked down 46, 47, 43 and 44 field goals over its last four home games. Take the over (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston -5 | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Auburn at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Regardless whether Houston star guard Marcus Sasser is able to play or how much he can contribute, I like the way this matchup sets up for the Cougars. Auburn exploded for 51 points in the second half in its opening round victory over Iowa. Keep in mind, that was just the Tigers fifth win since January 25th. They haven't posted consecutive victories since a five-game winning streak fro January 7th to 21st. I don't like the Auburn defense here, noting that it has allowed 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. The Cougars play at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country but I look for the Tigers to do all they can to speed them up here and I think that actually may end up working against them. Houston certainly didn't show it in its tournament opener but it can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard when necessary. Note that the Cougars have knocked down at least 25 field goals in six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in five straight games but that's by far their longest such streak of the season (prior to it they had been held under 70 in only six of 30 contests). With or without Sasser, I look for the Cougars to outpace the Tigers here. Take Houston (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston OVER 132 | Top | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Auburn and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. While they'll have to work to do so, I think Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers can speed the snail's paced Houston Cougars up in Saturday's second round matchup. Since the Tigers ugly 46-43 loss at Tennessee back in early February we've seen the 'over' go 6-4 in their last 10 games. They've hoisted up at least 62 field goal attempts in six of those 10 contests as well and the four games where they didn't still totalled 152, 140, 149 and 149 points. Auburn enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 29, 28, 25 and 29 field goals over its last four contests but it's a much different story at the defensive end of the floor as it has yielded 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. Houston was involved in an incredibly low-scoring affair against Northern Kentucky to open this tournament. Star guard Marcus Sasser appeared to re-aggravate his groin injury and was only able to play 14 minutes. His absence (he's likely to play but it remains to be seen for how long or how effective he can be) hurts the Cougars just as much defensively as it does offensively, noting that Northern Kentucky was able to get off a whopping 69 field goal attempts in Thursday's loss. Keep in mind, Sasser is one of the best defenders in the nation. While the Houston offense has sputtered recently, I'm not overly concerned as it ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and has enough scoring depth to pick up the slack should Sasser not be able to handle his usual workload. I'm quite simply willing to bet against an Auburn defense that has looked out of sorts for the last month stepping up against the one-seed here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-23 | Duke v. Tennessee +4 | 52-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Duke at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. Duke has reeled off five straight ATS victories including a blowout win over Oral Roberts in the opening round of this tournament on Thursday. Long pointspread win streaks aren't commonplace for teams as high-profile as the Blue Devils and I can't help but feel it's leaving them overvalued as a considerable favorite against Tennessee on Saturday. Note that prior to its current streak, the Blue Devils season-long ATS run had lasted only two games and that happened just once - way back in the first two games of the regular season. Here, I anticipate Duke getting stymied by a tremendous Tennessee defense that checks in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). The Vols actually sit 10 spots ahead of the Blue Devils in KenPom's overall rankings. While Duke has impressed, it is just one game removed from a sub-20 field goal performance against Virginia (in the ACC Championship Game). In stark contrast, the Vols have knocked down more than 20 field goals in 11 straight games - that despite playing at only the 276th fastest tempo in the country (again according to KenPom). In what projects as a low-scoring game, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Vols. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Michigan v. Vanderbilt -1 | 65-66 | Push | 0 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vanderbilt minus the points over Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with Michigan in its NIT opener against Toledo but it faces a much more difficult challenge as it heads on the road to take on Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Commodores are a red hot 10-2 SU and ATS over their last 12 games and unlike the Wolverines, I think Vandy is content to be in the NIT, rather than feeling snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee. Michigan has struggled away from home all season, going 5-11 while being outscored by an average margin of 1.2 points on average. Meanwhile, Vandy is 13-5 in Nashville, outscoring the opposition by 4.8 points on average. With the Wolverines giving up far too many scoring opportunities (they've allowed more than 60 field goal attempts in five straight games) I look for the Commodores to roll here. Take Vanderbilt (8*). |
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03-17-23 | Kent State v. Indiana UNDER 140.5 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Indiana at 9:55 pm et on Friday. Kent State enters the NCAA Tournament sporting a 12-20 o/u record in lined games this season but was involved in consecutive high-scoring affairs in the MAC Tournament semi-final and championship rounds. I do think the Golden Flashes generally want to slow things down when faced with considerable odds, as is the case here against Indiana. Remember, during their non-conference slate they went up against Houston and Gonzaga, both on the road no less, and held them to just 50 and 55 field goal attempts respectively in a pair of ATS wins. Indiana checks in off a high-scoring contest as well, falling by a 77-73 score against Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament semi-finals. The Hoosiers scored 80 or more points in 13 of their first 21 games this season but have topped out at 79 points over their last 12 contests. Defensively, Indiana probably doesn't get enough credit. It has held 12 of its last 17 opponents to 24 made field goals or fewer. Kent State ranks 111th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, noting that it has only faced the 284th most difficult slate of opponents from a defensive efficiency standpoint (according to KenPom). I noted earlier that the 'over' has cashed in the Golden Flashes last two games. That matches their longest such streak of the season, with the 'under' having cashed in their next game on both previous occasions where they came off back-to-back 'overs'. Take the under (8*). |
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03-17-23 | Arizona State +6 v. TCU | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over TCU at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Bettors will undoubtedly be down on Pac-12 teams after watching Arizona's stunning loss to Princeton yesterday (the Wildcats won the Pac-12 Tournament less than a week ago). With that being said, I'll grab all the points I can get with underdog Arizona State here. TCU peaked sometime around mid-January, perhaps more specifically on January 21st when it won by 23 points on the road against Kansas. At that time, the Horned Frogs had just four losses but they've gone on to suffer eight more since. Since a four-game slide in late January, Arizona State has gone 8-5 over its last 13 games, including upset wins over Stanford, Arizona and USC. While the Sun Devils are coming off an incredible 98-point performance against Nevada in their 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday, I've been more impressed by their defense. They've held five straight opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts entering Friday's contest. The Horned Frogs have knocked down more than 20 field goals in five straight games but they've done so on the strength of 59 or more FG attempts in four of those five contests. Defensively, you would have to go back 14 games, all the way to January 24th, to find the last time TCU limited an opponent to fewer than 24 made field goals. I expect this game to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Arizona State (8*). |
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03-17-23 | 76ers v. Hornets OVER 226 | 121-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Hornets have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games - not surprising given they've been a mess defensively since losing key space-eater Mark Williams to a thumb injury. Note that Charlotte has allowed its last three opponents to make good on 46, 41 and 45 field goals. That includes a pair of games against the slow-paced Cavaliers, who got up only 80 and 76 field goal attempts. The 76ers play a similarly slow pace but figure to take advantage just the same. Philadelphia had its streak of seven straight games knocking down 40 or more field goals snapped last time out against the aforementioned Cavs but it still scored 118 points. For whatever reason, the Hornets offense has given the 76ers defense fits going back to the start of last season, making good on 48, 39, 46, 42, 44 and 38 field goals in six meetings with a low-water mark of 106 points in terms of scoring. Charlotte enters this contest having knocked down 40 or more field goals in five straight games after being held under that number in four of its previous five contests. The return of Kelly Oubre has certainly given it a boost, rounding out a capable scoring trio that also includes Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward. Take the over (8*). |
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03-17-23 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over VCU at 2 pm et on Friday. I think VCU carries a certain reputation when it comes to postseason basketball, due in large part to past success. I don't think this is a good matchup at all for the Rams as they take on a St. Mary's Gaels squad that many consider an afterthought after getting brushed aside by Gonzaga twice in its last three games. Entering the tournament, the Gaels rank 12th overall according to KenPom, displaying tremendous efficiency at both ends of the floor. It's a case of 'anything you can do, I can do better' by my estimation. While VCU ranks an impressive 16th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, St. Mary's checks in ninth. The Rams sit just 138th in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency - a far cry from the Gaels 39th ranking. Did St. Mary's do it against a weaker schedule? Not even close as the Gaels have faced the 74th toughest slate of opponents this season (also according to KenPom) and the 56th most difficult non-conference schedule. VCU checks in 134th and 215th in those two categories, respectively. Note that St. Mary's has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins when coming off an in-conference loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. In fact, the Gaels are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 contests following a straight-up loss. While St. Mary's has gone a profitable 18-13 ATS in lined contests this season, you have to wonder if that record might be a shade better were it not for its opponents shooting an above-average 75.2% from the free throw line. Note that VCU has knocked down just 69.7% of its attempts from the charity stripe this season. Take St. Mary's (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Penn State v. Texas A&M OVER 134.5 | Top | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Texas A&M at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams posted 'under' results in their respective conference tournament championship games but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. I think the potential is there for Texas A&M to go off offensively after being held down by an elite, under-appreciated Alabama defense in the SEC title game. Penn State ranks 99th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and has shown no ability to limit its opponents' scoring opportunities over the last month or so, allowing more than 60 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. The Nittany Lions have yielded 24 or more made field goals in 12 of their last 15 contests overall and haven't limited an opponent to 20 or fewer made field goals since way back on December 29th (I realize that streak was kept intact thanks to overtime against Northwestern last week). Texas A&M can certainly play some defense but it's worth noting that it hasn't held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals since February 4th against Georgia. It's worth noting that the Aggies have been a much different team away from their home floor as well, yielding an average of two more made field goals on two fewer attempts per game compared to their overall season average. Despite playing at a slow pace, the Nittany Lions have managed to knock down 22 or more field goals in five of their last six games and have only been held to fewer than 20 made field goals twice all season - an impressive feat considering they play in the Big Ten, which can be a slog of a conference at times. Penn State averages 10 made three-pointers per contest and travels well in that regard, averaging the same 10 made threes per game away from home, on one attempt fewer compared to its season average. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Magic v. Suns OVER 228 | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are in desperate need of a 'get-right' performance offensively and I think they get it on Thursday against the Magic. With that being said, Orlando checks in off an off day on Wednesday following a disappointing loss in San Antonio on Tuesday. The Magic offense has been on point during a 6-1 'over' run, scoring 114 points in all seven games and I do expect it to give the Suns defense some trouble here. The problem for Orlando is that its own defense has been non-existent lately. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse at that end of the floor as it has allowed 46, 49, 42 and 48 made field goals over its last four games. Prior to that stretch, there were also three games where the Magic allowed 48 or more made field goals from February 14th to March 1st. The opportunities have certainly been there for the Suns as they've hoisted up 94 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has faded a little defensively, yielding 40 or more made field goals in three straight games despite holding all three of those opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. The 'under' has cashed in each of the last two meetings in this series but we haven't seen three consecutive 'under' results between these two teams since back in 2016-17. Take the over (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Kings v. Nets OVER 237.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The 'pop-gun' Bulls offense struck again last night as we just missed with the 'over' in the Kings 117-114 win in Chicago. The fact that the game even got to 231 total points was encouraging given the Kings got off just 78 field goal attempts while the Bulls knocked down only 38-of-97 from the field. Here, I'm expecting both teams to take part in a track meet in Brooklyn. The Nets certainly looked road-weary two nights ago as they wrapped up a five-game in eight-night trip in Oklahoma City. Brooklyn clearly ran out of gas late in that game, unable to make a double-digit halftime lead stand up. I do think we see the Nets bounce right back offensively following an off day on Wednesday. Prior to Tuesday's game, Brooklyn had made good on 40 or more field goals in four straight games. Defensively, the Nets have been matador-like, however, allowing 44, 48, 45 and 45 made field goals over their last four games and more than 40 in nine of their last 11 contests. Each of their last four opponents has gotten off at least 90 field goal attempts. Take the over (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Utah State -1.5 v. Missouri | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Missouri at 1:40 pm et on Thursday. I love the matchup for Utah State here as it draws what I consider to be an overrated SEC squad in Missouri that has certainly exceeded expectations this season but isn't well-suited to go on a deep tournament run in my opinion. Many watched the Tigers upset Tennessee last Friday but their SEC Tournament success was short-lived as they were outmatched by Alabama the next day. While Missouri has managed to get hot for stretches offensively, it has also been limited to 23 or fewer made field goals in four of its last eight games. My concern with Missouri lies at the defensive end of the floor where it ranks 179th in the nation in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and will have to deal with an experienced, multi-pronged Utah State offense that checks in 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency despite quietly having faced the 58th most difficult schedule. The Aggies fell just short in the Mountain West Championship Game against a terrific San Diego State squad but I'm confident they'll get right back up for this NCAA Tournament opening round matchup. With 7'1" Trevin Dorius in the middle not to mention the imposing duo of Taylor Funk and Sean Bairstow and the glue-guy that holds it all together in hometown boy Steven Ashworth, I believe this Aggies squad has the potential to make some noise this weekend, starting with Thursday's game. Take Utah State (8*). |