Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-31-19 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Houston-Oakland This figures to be a low-scoring affair as the Astros travel to Oakland to face the Athletics. The A's are in off a high-scoring series vs. the Angels where the Over cashed in all three games. But it's a much better pitching staff that they'll be facing this weekend, starting with Brad Peacock, who has a 0.56 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in his previous three trips to the mound. Peacock has allowed one run or fewer in five of the last six starts, the lone exception coming against a Minnesota team that has the top scoring lineup in baseball. Peacock's last four starts have yielded just one run in 23 innings! Not to be outdone, Michael Fiers of Oakland has also been great of late. He's got a 1.80 ERA and 0.60 WHIP his last three starts, which includes a no-hitter! Fiers has allowed no more than three runs in five consecutive trips to the mound. This shapes up to be a good old fashioned pitchers duel. Play UNDER Houston-Oakland AAA |
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05-31-19 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Cleveland-Chicago Trevor Bauer has been shockingly bad for the Indians recently while Dylan Covey has yet to pitch well for the White Sox. Given how last night's game between the two teams went (Chicago won 10-4), the Over seems like a very logical call for Friday. Cleveland has gone Over in five straight going back to Sunday and it had just scored 14 runs on a season-high 18 hits the game before this series got underway. Chicago is riding a season-best four-game win streak and has totaled 18 runs the last two days. Bauer has a 7.41 ERA his past three starts and has given up 29 runs in his last six starts. Covey may have seen the Under hit in each of his last four starts, but his ERA is 5.75 in that time and he allowed four runs in three of those starts. In their last four games, Cleveland has allowed 36 runs the last four games. Play OVER Cleveland-Chicago AAA |
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05-30-19 | Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Mets-Dodgers It was a downright BRUTAL loss for the Mets last night as they blew an 8-3 lead and lost 9-8 to the Dodgers. LA scored six of its runs in the final three innings, four of them coming in the ninth. The teams combined for 61 total bases in the game, which is a lot. Unlike yesterday, the Mets won't have Noah Syndergaard starting tonight. Instead it will be Jason Vargas who has pitched poorly on the road. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. The Dodgers have been just awesome offensively, scoring 5.8 runs/game at home (for the season) and 7.1 runs/game the last seven days. They are the NL's highest scoring team. The trick here will be the Mets getting some runs against Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu has been tremendous in 2019, never allowing more than two runs in any start! He's allowed only two total in his last four starts. But three of those four still went Over (thanks Dodgers offense!) and the Mets are averaging more than six runs per game over the last week themselves. Play OVER Mets-Dodgers AAA |
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05-29-19 | Cardinals v. Phillies OVER 10.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER St. Louis-Philadelphia These teams combined to score seven runs in the first four innings yesterday, but after that it was all zeroes on the scoreboard. The Phillies won 4-3, their 8th win in the last 11 games as they continue to pace the NL East. St. Louis has been a moderate disappointment (1 game under .500), though right now the city's bigger concern lies with the Blues. Still, a 7-17 WL record this month definitely isn't good. Despite what we saw Tuesday, both bullpens can be shaky. The Cardinals blew a game in spectacular fashion Sunday night against Atlanta while the Phillies relivers were hardly stellar in the last series (vs. Milwaukee). Starting here for the home team will be Aaron Nola. The Over is 9-2 in his 11 outings as he started the season pretty poorly. He's settled down his last few times on the mound, but his WHIP is still 1.75 over the last three trips. The Over has cashed each of the last six times Nola has started on five or more days rest. He last pitched on Thursday. St. Louis is going with Genesis Cabrera, who is taking Michael Wacha's spot in the rotation for his big league debut. But it's not like Cabrera was dominant down in the minors as he had a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A Memphis. Play OVER St. Louis-Philadelphia AAA |
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05-29-19 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 14-9 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Cleveland-Boston For Cleveland, it was a case of "good things come to those who wait." They sat out a 1+ hr rain delay last night in Boston and rallied late for a 7-5 victory. They hadn't scored at all prior to the eighth inning and then the bottom of the order delivered a stunning five-run rally in the ninth to win. We had the Over in Monday's game (won 14-5 by the Red Sox), so the Over is 2 for 2 so far in this series. Today it's time to go the other way however as Shane Bieber should certainly keep the Indians competitive while Ryan Weber was certainly impressive in his 1st big league start for the Red Sox. Bieber has 25 strikeouts in the last two starts alone, which have seen him allow only one run in 14 innings. He has a 0.99 WHIP on the road. As alluded to, Weber's debut in the starter's role couldn't have gone any better as he held Toronto to one run and three hits. Let's not forget Cleveland came into this series having scored three runs or less in six straight games. The Under is 6-0 in Bieber's last six starts. Play UNDER Cleveland-Boston AAA |
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05-28-19 | Rangers v. Mariners -150 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SEATTLE Texas made a pitching change overnight as it will now be Jesse Chavez starting, but that should hardly matter against a Seattle team that beat them, 6-2, last night. May has been a bad month for the Mariners but they have a chance to end it on a positive note facing a team they have some major revenge to exact upon. Before last night's games, Texas had beaten them five straight times. But that's now a thing of the past as Seattle rediscovered an offense that started out the season so hot. The Mariners still average 5.1 runs/game. Something that must be considered is that while Chavez will be "opening" this game for the Rangers, Seattle will still get to face originally scheduled starter Adrian Sampson, who has a 7.66 ERA this year. Sampson should come in quickly (after an inning or two) following Chavez. The Mariners go with Gonzales, who started the year 5-0. Despite a slide, he still has decent numbers and two starts against the Rangers have seen him give up only two runs in 14 innings. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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05-28-19 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER San Francisco-Miami The Giants and the Marlins have the two worst records in the National League and should already both be considered non-contenders at this points in the season. The Giants bring up the rear in the NL West while the Marlins do the same in the East. Miami's played better of late (7-3 L10) while San Fran has lost five in a row and is coming off what manager Bruce Bochy called "their worst series of the season" as they were swept at home by Arizona and outscored 34-8 in the process. But the Marlins still have scored fewer runs than every other team making it ideal that the G-men are sending out Jeff Samardzija (lowest ERA among team's starting pitchers) today. Samardzija has allowed more than three earned runs only twice this year (10 starts) and never more than four. Miami goes with Trevor Richards, who has pitched better at home than on the road. So it was a really positive sign that Richards allowed just one run in his last start, which came at Detroit. We don't look for either team to score much here. Play UNDER San Francisco-Miami AAA |
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05-27-19 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Texas-Seattle These teams just played a three-game series last week in Arlington. As we wrote back then, "a matchup between these teams should almost be an automatic green light to take the Over." Little has changed then to sway our opinion. Yes, two of the three games in that series did stay Under (we won the Over in the opener though) and seven of Seattle's last nine games have stayed Under as well. But that's just some predictable "leveling off" as they are still 36-16-3 Over in all games, the top Over record in baseball. Yesterday's game, when we went against them (10* Game of the Week winner on the Angels) went Over as the final score was 7-6. Now the Mariners are back home where they're giving up 6.5 runs per game. Texas is giving up 5.6 runs per game on the road. Both teams average more than 5.0 runs per game with the Rangers averaging 5.7, which is second most overall. We don't like either starter's chances tonight as this will be the third time Seattle has faced Lance Lynn and second in a week. Same with Texas against Tommy Milone. Both bullpens have ERA's above 5.00. Play OVER Texas-Seattle AAA |
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05-27-19 | Mets v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Dodgers Runs should be scarce here with a pitching matchup of deGrom vs. Kershaw. The former continues to have some poor luck (dating back to last season), but he happened to outduel Max Scherzer last week in a 6-1 win over Washington. DeGrom gave up just one run (a solo HR) and two hits. That was a game where the Mets - now winners of six of their last seven - scored all of their runs in the bottom of the eighth. As for Kershaw, after missing the first few weeks of the season (injured), he has returned as his usual dominant self. The Dodgers have won all seven of his starts and he's posted a 0.98 WHIP. The home team has the edge here due to the game being at Chavez Ravine where they sport a 19-6 record and allow only 3.3 runs/game. The Mets offense usually isn't very good on the road and Kershaw is 8-0 all-time against them (13 starts) with a 1.98 ERA. The Under has also hit the last four times deGrom has pitched in this park. Play UNDER Mets-Dodgers AAA |
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05-27-19 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cleveland-Boston The Indians are off a dreadful homestand, one in which they finished just 3-7 and two of the wins came against last place Baltimore. Unfortunately, the job gets no easier for the Tribe as they now have to visit Fenway Park for Memorial Day. After their own awful start to the year, the Red Sox have actually surged past Cleveland for the AL's second Wild Card spot, but obviously there's still a long way to go. Today's game should be a lot higher scoring than usual, especially from the Cleveland perspective, as neither team will be sending its best pitcher to the mound. While the Under is 6-0 in starts made by the Indians' Jefry Rodriguez this season, that's generally been due to poor run support. Rodriguez has a 4.07 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, subpar numbers, and allowed nine runs in his last two starts. Boston goes with Porcello and while he's pitched better of late, he's still given up at least one HR in all but two starts. The Over is 8-2 when Porcello pitches. The Red Sox just got done playing three low-scoring games (all Unders) in Houston, but they average 5.6 runs/game at Fenway. Play OVER Cleveland-Boston AAA |
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05-26-19 | Rangers v. Angels -150 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LA ANGELS The Angels haven't been very good this season, but we've had a somewhat bizarre ability to call for them to win at the right times. Often, it's been in the final game of a series, at home, when they're looking to avoid getting swept. That's not quite the case today as they did win yesterday, beating Texas 3-2, and now have a chance to take the series. We like them to do so as this is probably a good time to sell high on a Rangers team that had previously won 8 out of its last 9. But we don't think the Rangers are going to be particularly good this year and their offense hasn't done much in recent days. Plus they send a spot starter (Ariel Jurado) to the mound today. The Angels, fresh off a walk-off win, go with Andrew Heaney. This is Heaney's 1st start of the year due to elbow issues. But he looked great in a rehab start down on the farm (Triple-A), striking out 10 in just 4 1/3 innings. He led the team in innings pitched last year and the Angels have won seven of his last nine home starts. Mike Trout has not done much at the plate lately (3 of 18 last five games), but should break out of that slump today. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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05-26-19 | Orioles v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Colorado It almost seems unfair to stick this terrible Orioles pitching staff in Coors Field. No staff has given up more runs per game (6.1) than Baltimore's and Coors is once again shaping up to be the highest scoring venue in either league. The Rockies are tied for the MLB lead, averaging 6.0 runs/game at home. But they are also dead last in runs allowed at home, giving up 7.0/game. One of the more culpable starters on the Orioles staff has been David Hess, who goes today. Hess has 7.06 ERA in eight starts (6-2 Over) and just allowed nine runs total and three home runs the last time he pitched. We like Rockies starter German Marquez, but even he is not immune to the "Coors effect." He has a 5.34 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at home, which is way up from his numbers on the road (2.08, 0.74). Baltimore's last six games have all gone Over and before that they gave up 10 runs in a shutout loss. It figures to be another very high scoring affair today in Denver where the Over is 10-1 the last 11 games. Play Over Baltimore-Colorado AAA |
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05-25-19 | Dodgers -170 v. Pirates | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on the LA DODGERS The Dodgers beat the Pirates 10-2 on Friday and should continue to roll here behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has been absolutely on fire of late. In his last three starts, Ryu has a 0.00 ERA and 0.50 WHIP as he's thrown 24 scoreless innings with 20 strikeouts against only two walks. Ryu hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his nine starts this season! He'll face a slumping Pirates team that has looked rather lifeless this week, save for a 14-6 win over Colorado on Thursday. But they got drilled in the first two games of that series as the starting pitching situation here has gotten somewhat dire (due to injuries). They've had to use an opener three times this week, including last night. Here it'll be Joe Musgrove, a regular member of the rotation, but it's not like he's pitched well lately. He's allowed 19 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. The Dodgers have dominated the Pirates through the years, outscoring them 119-56 the last three seasons while going 15-2 overall. That includes a 5-0 record with Ryu on the mound. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-25-19 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Seattle-Oakland Let's try this again. Seattle & Oakland failed to go Over yesterday (as we'd predicted them to) and that makes it three straight Unders for the Mariners, which is actually unprecedented this season. In a year where they are 35-15-3 in all games, at no point have the Mariners gone Under in three straight ... until now. Yesterday was actually just the second time they'd come in off two straight Unders! They still lost for a 4th straight time last night, 6-2, increasing their MLB-worst runs allowed to 315 for the season. Despite 10 hits, they could only manage two runs. Today should be a higher-scoring affair. While A's pitcher Michael Fiers' recent numbers are strong, thanks to a no-hitter he tossed against Cincinnati on May 7th, he still carries an overall ERA of 5.21. He has a 6.36 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. Seattle, which includes a 6-5 loss in his last start. Oakland is averaging 7.4 runs/game during its seven-game win streak and should again find success vs. Seattle's Kikuchi, whom they homered three times off of back on May 13th. Kikuchi's last three starts have all gone Over. Play OVER Seattle-Oakland AAA |
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05-24-19 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Texas-LA Angels Very different is how the last series went for these AL West teams. Texas swept Seattle (at home), making it seven wins in the past eight games. Los Angeles was swept (at home) by Minnesota. They've lost 6 of 8. But it's a break for the Angels on Friday, at least for the hitters, going against Drew Smyly. The Rangers starting pitcher has a 6.26 ERA and 1.74 WHIP and those numbers get downright ugly on the road (10.81 ERA, 2.70 WHIP). Granted, it was just one start. But Smyly's overall body of work tells us not to expect a quality start. He's actually yet to deliver one of those as he hasn't pitched longer than five innings in any start. The Angels Griffin Canning is off the best of his four starts so far, seven shutout innings of three-hit ball, but that was against Kansas City. Texas is averaging 5.8 runs/game, second most in baseball. But they also are giving up 5.5 runs/game. Angels home games have been pretty high scoring too as they average 5.3 runs per game but also give up 5.1. The Over is 20-6-1 following an off day for the Rangers. Play OVER Texas-LA Angels AAA |
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05-24-19 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Oakland It is pretty crazy to think the Mariners started the season by winning 13 of their first 15 games. Since then, no team has a worse record. It's been 27 losses in the last 37 games for Seattle as they were just swept by Texas. Given how hot Oakland has been (six straight wins), the weekend doesn't exactly shape up nicely. Seattle is now giving up 5.9 runs per game. That's second most overall. The last seven games have seen that number skyrocket to 8.1 per game. Over the same time, the A's are scoring 7.0 runs per game. Starting for Seattle, Wade LeBlanc does not appear to be the man fit for the job tonight. He has a 7.36 ERA and 1.91 WHIP and good for us is that all four starts have gone Over. They haven't just gone Over, they've flown Over with an average of almost 19 total runs per game scored! The A's are starting Mengden, whose only other home start yielded four runs in 5 1/3 innings. Seattle can still score. They are averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road. The Over is 35-14-3 in all of their games. Play OVER Seattle-Oakland AAA |
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05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Atlanta-St. Louis Atlanta has played well of late, winning seven of nine. They wrapped up a 4-game series in San Francisco (won 3 of 4) yesterday by winning 5-4. St. Louis did not play Thursday and has won just three times in its previous nine games. But at home, we expect the Cardinals bats to "wake up" today, much in the same way they did the last time they faced Atlanta. These teams just played down in Atlanta last week and the Cards opened that series by scoring 14 runs in the opener. They did so mostly at the expense of the same pitcher they'll see today, Mike Foltynewicz, who has struggled mightily since returning from injury. Foltynewicz gave up eight runs in that last start vs. St. Louis and has an 0-5 team start record with a 6.91 ERA. The Cardinals go with Mikolas, who has pitched well at home, but has also lost his last two starts. His last one was a real disaster as he failed to get out of the second inning before allowing seven runs. The Over is 3-0-1 the last four times St. Louis had the previous day off. Play OVER Atlanta-St. Louis AAA |
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05-24-19 | Rays v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Tampa Bay-Cleveland We had the Over on this matchup yesterday. The Rays won 7-2, getting four home runs and one of them (an inside the park job) was pretty indicative of how Cleveland has played of late. The inside the park HR, the first allowed by the Indians since '08, saw two outfielders collide. Three runs scored and it was pretty much over from there. It was the Indians 4th straight loss, all of them coming here at Progressive Field. Perhaps even more embarrassing is that they could do little against Rays "opener" Ryan Yarbrough, who wound up going a career-high 7 1/3 innings as Indians hitters were totally ineffective. Par for the course we're afraid as the Tribe are near the bottom of the American League in runs scored. Today they have to face Blake Snell, which likely means another tough night at the plate. Snell, last year's Cy Young winner, has a 1.53 ERA and 0.79 WHIP his last three times out. Tampa Bay doesn't figure to score as many here either as they won't get the gift that was the three-run inside-the-park HR. Their hitters also have to contend with Shane Bieber, who has a sub 1.00 WHIP on the year. Bieber went the distance in his last start, striking out 15 and allowing only five hits. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Cleveland AAA |
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05-23-19 | Rays v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Tampa Bay-Cleveland Cleveland catches a major break here in that Tampa Bay decided to push Blake Snell's start back a day. Snell is probably the last pitcher the Indians would want to see, given their current ineptitude at the plate. They should have more luck against Rays "opener" Ryan Yarbrough, who is being recalled from Triple A to pitch Thursday. While Yarbrough has looked good "down on the farm," that hasn't been the case here in the big show where he has an 8.10 ERA in five prior relief appearances. We had the Over in Cleveland's game yesterday (vs. the A's) and despite them allowing seven runs, it still stayed Under by half a run. Again, the Indians' offense should be more productive today. But the Rays figure to give Cleveland more of a problem than Oakland just did. The A's scored 18 runs in a three-game sweep here at Progressive Field and the Rays are coming off a game where they put eight on the board against the Dodgers (no DH). Tampa's last three games have all gone Over and while they face a pitcher (Adam Plutko) that allowed only one hit in his 2019 debut, it was a home run. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Cleveland AAA |
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05-23-19 | Marlins v. Tigers -147 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT The Tigers continue to dig themselves an even deeper hole on what has been an absolutely dreadful homestand. That homestand ends today and they enter the finale with Miami on an eight-game losing streak, all of those games here at Comerica Park. While they were outscored 24-6 in three games by Houston and 28-6 in three games by Oakland, losing twice here to Miami just might be the official "low point" of the 2019 campaign. The Marlins, who have now won five straight and are going for a second straight sweep, nevertheless have the worst record in the whole National League. They have scored 24 fewer runs than the Tigers this season as these are the two lowest scoring teams in all of baseball. We believe the home team is going to come in highly motivated today as it looks to avoid a winless homestand. They did lead 3-0 (after three innings) yesterday. Hope comes in the form of Matthew Boyd for today as he has a 3.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the year. He's been the team's most reliable starter. His last start was the first time this season that he allowed more than three earned runs (he allowed four). We give him the nod over Miami's Trevor Richards, who just won for the first time all year and has a 1-8 team start record. This will be just the second time the Tigers are higher than -125 on the money line. They won the first. The Marlins are 1-9 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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05-22-19 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee The Reds and Brewers went Under again on Tuesday. We use the term "again" because it was the eighth straight meeting to do so, going back to last season. But this time (meaning Tuesday), the Reds won, 3-0. It was Cincy's first win over Milwaukee this season after being swept at home back in early April. It was also their MLB leading seventh shutout. But the first time all season the Brewers were shutout comes with a caveat as they were without Christian Yelich (back spasms). His absence resulted in the team being unable to get any runner past second base the entire game. Now we realize that today's pitching matchup hardly seems like the one to break the trend of Unders when these teams meet. Cincy's Castillo has a 1.90 ERA while Milwaukee's Davies has a 1.54 ERA. The Under has gone a combined 16-3 in their 19 starts. But, with or without Yelich, I'll call for the Brewers to have a bounce back game at the plate. The Over is 10-3-1 the last 14 times they've been off a game where they scored two runs or less. Castillo is 11-5 Over the last 16 times he's started on five days rest. Play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-22-19 | A's v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on OVER Oakland-Cleveland The Indians have dropped to 1-5 vs. the A's this season after taking back to back losses to open this series. One would have thought this might be a golden opportunity for the Tribe to get some revenge for dropping two of three in Oakland earlier this month as they had Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer start the first two games. But that has obviously not been the case. The A's, now winners of five straight, have scored 39 runs during the course of that win streak. They figure to score plenty more today against the weakest of the three Cleveland starters they'll have faced in the series, Jefry Rodriguez, who just allowed season-highs in both runs and home runs allowed in his previous start. Frankie Montas pitches here for the A's. While he looked good his last time out, that was due to facing a very weak Tigers lineup. The Over is 12-1 in Oakland's previous 13 Wednesday games. Play OVER Oakland-Cleveland AAA |
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05-21-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Arizona-San Diego So the Diamondbacks and Padres failed to go Over yesterday as we predicted they would. It was another pitcher's duel between Luke Weaver and Chris Paddack with the Padres winning 2-1. But tonight's game has an even lower total and a slightly less attractive pitching matchup. Sure, Zack Greinke is involved for Arizona, but he has a 4.08 ERA on the road. He also had to leave his last start with an abdominal strain. While the injury is being downplayed, let's see how he performs moving forward. San Diego's offense may not have done much in recent days and Greinke has given them plenty of trouble through the years. But the Over is 6-0 in Greinke's last six division starts. It's also 5-2 his last seven starts vs. the Padres. San Diego will go with Strahm, who has seen his ERA lowered in six of his last seven starts. He's not allowed more than two runs in any of those seven starts, but he still has a home ERA above 4.00 and his worst start to date came against Arizona, who scored five times off him in just 2 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.4 runs/game on the road. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego AAA |
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05-21-19 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-NY Mets You'd be hard-pressed to find two more disappointing teams in either league than the Mets and Nationals. By rule, someone had to win yesterday's game and it was the Mets doing so by a score of 5-3. Of course, one team will prevail again today, but the better bet is on the Under as neither team is doing much hitting lately, the Mets especially. They had been shutout in consecutive games (by Miami!) coming into this series and are hitting .206 over the last week. Even worse is that in those two shutout losses to Miami, they managed only three hits. They'd lost five in a row overall before yesterday. Washington has scored more than five runs only twice in its last 10 games. Erick Fedde is starting here only because of an injury to Anibal Sanchez. He did allow four runs (in relief of Sanchez) last week to the Mets, but should be better here. Again he'll face Zack Wheeler, who didn't exactly pitch well last Thursday either. But before that he'd tossed five quality starts in six tries. Play UNDER Washington-NY Mets AAA |
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05-20-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Arizona-San Diego Arizona is a team you probably don't hear about all that often, but they have managed to stay above .500 and are still in a good spot, despite suffering back to back losses. We had the Under in Sunday's game vs. the Giants, which was a 3-2 loss that went 10 innings. So you may be surprised to see that we're going Over in Monday's matchup with San Diego, which - on paper - would seem more conducive to an Under play. But the number is too low here. Padres starter Chris Paddack has been very good in his rookie year, guiding the team to a 6-2 record when he's on the mound and doing so with a 1.99 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. But he's off his worst start to date as he allowed six runs in just 4 2/3 innings to the Dodgers. San Diego is off three straight losses to Pittsburgh here at home and all three games went Over. The Diamondbacks go with Luke Weaver for this series opener and like Paddack he's pitched well. It was a 2-1 game when Weaver and Paddack met back in April, but the total there was 8.0. Arizona averages 5.6 runs/game on the road and the Over has cashed in 11 of their last 15 series openers. Plus, it is 12-4-1 their last 17 division games. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego AAA |
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05-20-19 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 102 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on OVER Seattle-Texas A Seattle-Texas matchup should almost be an automatic "green light" to take the Over in our opinion. The Mariners have given up the most runs in all of baseball (292), but at the same time they have also scored the second most (258). Therefore, it's no shocker that they are the top Over team in the sport with a 34-12-3 O/U record. True to form, they are off a four-game series (against Minnesota) where they allowed 40 runs. Texas is off a series with St. Louis where every game went Under, but they are still giving up a high number of runs per game for the year (5.5). At the same time, they too can bring the offense as they average 5.8 runs/game, which is #1 in all of MLB! The only previous series between these teams in 2019 brought three Overs in four games (one push). The three games that went Over all saw the winning side score no fewer than 14 runs. Seattle starter Mike Leake did win his last time out, an impressive performance which saw him limit the A's to just three runs (only one earned), but he entered that start with an 0-5 TSR his last five starts. The Rangers hand the baseball to Mike Minor, who has a 4.21 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Mariners. Play OVER Seattle-Texas AAA |
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05-19-19 | Cubs v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cubs-Nationals We were on the Nationals last night as the thinking was Jon Lester's recent numbers weren't all they were cracked up to be. Sure enough, they got to Lester five times by the fifth inning and that was enough. Cubs manager Joe Maddon protested the loss due to the delivery of Washington reliever Sean Dolittle, which he complained about twice. Perhaps it was just seeing the Nationals bullpen pitch well that had Maddon raising his eyebrows. This group has been a disaster with a 6.77 ERA so far. Tonight's starter Jeremy Hellickson isn't much better with a 6.28 ERA his last three starts and a 7.90 ERA at home for the year. The Cubs would then seem to have a rather substantial edge in this matchup with Kyle Hendricks pitching as he has allowed just one earned run his last three starts where he's pitched 25 innings. But Hendricks is also a lot worse on the road with a 5.91 ERA. The Over is 14-7-1 in Cubs road games so far. Play OVER Cubs-Nationals AAA |
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05-19-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER San Francisco-Arizona These teams went Over on Saturday with the Giants winning 8-5. That was a bit of a rare occurrence as they previous five meetings (dating back to last August) had all gone Under. Three of those five games, including Friday's opener, were shutouts. San Francisco is not a team that's going to be able to consistently put runs on the board this year, so look for them to struggle at the plate today as they get set to face Robbie Ray, who has a 1.10 ERA his last three starts. Ray has allowed more than three earned runs in just one start all year, but even more key is that he's had the Giants number with a 3-0 record and 2.45 ERA in seven starts against them dating back to 2017. Right now, he looks like the pitcher who had a career year two seasons ago. SF's Pomeranz has had his struggles and will be coming off the DL here. But the Under is 5-2 his last seven starts. Play UNDER San Francisco-Arizona AAA |
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05-19-19 | Dodgers -168 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA DODGERS The Dodgers had their four-game win streak (three shutouts) snapped on Saturday, but should get right back into the win column Sunday here in Cincinnati. They had shut the Reds out on Friday, 6-0, but then got a taste of their own medicine yesterday in a 4-0 loss. Shutouts have been incredibly common in Dodgers games recently with 7 of their last 10 games ending up that way, either in their favor or not. Five of the seven games have been wins. Two of the shutouts have been authored by today's starting pitcher, Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is on an incredible run and having an incredible season. Ryu is working on a 24 inning scoreless stretch and didn't allow a run in either of his last two starts. He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last one. That came after a 93-pitch complete game. Ryu hasn't allowed more than 2 ER in any start all season. He has the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.72) right now. We just don't see how Tanner Roark and the Reds can match up here. Cincy is 5-12 in day games this season and 0-7 on Sunday. The Dodgers are 9-3 in day games. Play LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-18-19 | Cubs v. Nationals -137 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Nationals fell to an unthinkable 2-8 in Max Scherzer starts by losing last night 14-6. Don't put that all on Scherzer, however. It was 3-2 game when he left (Nats trailing) and then the bullpen imploded in spectacular fashion, giving up 11 runs over the last three innings, including five home runs. Washington is better than this and we like them to bounce back behind Stephen Strasburg tonight. Strasburg hasn't gotten any run support in his last two starts, literally, as the Nationals didn't score a single run in either game. But Straburg is still pitching well. He's gone six or more innings in six straight starts and given up two runs or less in four of the last five. For the Cubs, Lester hasn't allowed any earned runs in his last three starts. But he still has a higher WHIP than Strasburg for the year, which is telling. There have been three unearned runs allowed in the last two starts as well as 17 hits. So it's not been the dominant stretch some will make it out to be. Lester has a 1-4 TSR his last five starts vs. the Nationals, who are 70-28 in Strasburg's last 98 starts. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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05-18-19 | Cardinals v. Rangers OVER 12 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER St. Louis-Texas We're going Over the high total in this Interleague matchup. There has been a pitching change here with the Rangers now going with Jurado, who will be making his first start of the year, although it probably won't be for long. Jurado is being used as more of an "opener" and hasn't pitched more than 2 1/3 innings in any appearance this season. Though it did its job last night, it's not like the Rangers bullpen is very good. The offense scored all seven of its runs in the second inning and has now put 29 on the board the last three games. They've only given up five in the same stretch, but the three games before that saw them allow 37. We look for the St. Louis offense to break out of its mini-slump here as the Rangers are still giving up 5.5 runs/game, which is among the highest numbers in the sport. The Cardinals get to use a DH this weekend, so that helps. Problem is that Texas averages 6.6 runs/game at home, which is the highest average in either league. So Dakota Hudson is probably going to struggle here for St. Louis. He already has a 6.43 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three road starts and other than Coors Field, this will probably be the most hitter-friendly park he pitches in all season. Play OVER St. Louis-Texas AAA |
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05-17-19 | Pirates v. Padres -155 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN DIEGO How Pittsburgh is above .500 is a minor miracle. They have not just the worst run differential in the division (-48), but the second worst in the entire National League (Miami). They lost last night here in San Diego, 4-3, and we should get a repeat of that result tonight. Probably we should expect things to be even more lopsided. Even though the Bucs are 12-11 on the road, they've actually been outscored by a full run per game. The rotation is in tatters right now, putting a lot of pressure on starter Jordan Lyles this evening. While Lyles has a 6-1 team start record this year, his career numbers against San Diego aren't good at all. We're talking a 5.60 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP and opponents batting average of .296 against his former team. San Diego turns to Lucchesi, who is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. Then again, Lucchesi did just go 5 1/3 innings at Coors Field last Saturday while allowing one run. The Pirates have lost their last six games against left-handed starters. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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05-17-19 | Brewers v. Braves -132 | Top | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA Both the Braves and Brewers were playoff teams last year and obviously both would like to return there this fall. Both did win in their last series after losing the opener. Milwaukee took three of four, in Philadelphia, while Atlanta took two of three from St. Louis here at home. By rule, one of them is going to be successful in this series opener and we like the Braves. After being drubbed in the first game (lost 14-3), Atlanta gave it right back by outscoring St. Louis 14-2 the last two days. Starter Fried just may be the right man for the job tonight considering his 0.82 WHIP at home. Brewers starter Chacin has a 6.00 ERA on the road. Yes, Chacin has looked quite good of late, but the team is still 0-4 his last four road starts. The last one saw him allow just two runs at Wrigley and the Brewers still lost. Milwaukee is just 9-19 their last 28 games in Atlanta. Chacin also has an 0-4 team start record his last four starts against teams that have winning records. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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05-17-19 | Cubs v. Nationals -145 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Nationals got a much needed win yesterday, 7-6 over the Mets, thereby taking that three-game set. They get a much tougher opponent this weekend, also at home, in the form of the Cubs. But they'll have Max Scherzer starting the opener Friday. Although Scherzer has a stunning 2-7 team start record this year, it's not like he's pitched that poorly. The ERA is definitely a little higher than normal (3.64) as is the WHIP (1.15). But both numbers are better at home despite an 0-5 TSR here. It's been four straight quality starts from Scherzer with 35 strikeouts in 27 innings and just nine total runs allowed. It's a tough matchup here vs. Cole Hamels, but Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA all-time against the Cubs, who have lost two in a row after winning six of seven. Having to sit through a rain delay last night in Cincinnati probably does them no favors for today. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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05-16-19 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 102 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER St. Louis-Atlanta The Cardinals and Braves have exchanged a couple of commanding wins here, albeit in much different fashion. St. Louis won the first game 14-3 while Atlanta won last night 4-0. For the Cardinals, this is a continuation of a "feast or famine" approach at the plate. Twice in the last five days they've scored 14 or more runs in a game and they have scored six or more runs in four of their last nine. But the other five have seen them score just three runs total as they've been held to 1 or 0 every time. We expect more "feast" tonight as they are set to face Julio Teheran, whose had himself an up and down to start the year. The Over is 9-3-2 the last 14 times St. Louis scored 2 runs or less in its last game. They are still third in the National League in runs scored. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Teheran has started on at least five days rest. He hasn't pitched since last Friday. Adam Wainwright will start tonight for the Cardinals. The Over is 16-7-1 when he starts off a team loss. Wainright has been a lot worse on the road so far where his ERA is 5.39. Play OVER St. Louis-Atlanta AAA |
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05-16-19 | Brewers v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia Virtually all the trends say that we're heading for another Under between the Brewers and Phillies Thursday, which would be the third straight in the series. (Monday's game, a 7-4 Philly win, did go Over). The Under is 5-1 in the Brewers last six games as well as 6-1 in the Phillies last seven. Then you have the fact that today's starter for Milwaukee, Zach Davies, is 8-0 Under this year. Philadelphia, looking to earn itself a split of this four-game series, goes with Zach Eflin. He's pitched even better than this year than his counterpart with the 8-0 Under record, including a complete game effort in his last start. Despite all this, we look for this game to still go Over. We played the Over last night and it was looking good early with Milwaukee up 4-1 after just three innings. But things really settled down after that and it ended up a 5-2 final. It's not like both offenses aren't capable of a big day at the plate. Milwaukee has averaged 5.0 runs/game in the series. Philadelphia scored 6 or more in three straight games before the last two days. Let's try this again. Play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia AAA |
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05-15-19 | Brewers v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia This is a four-game series the Phillies and Brewers are involved in and so far each team has notched a win. Milwaukee got their yesterday, 6-1, snapping a three-game losing streak in the process. But prior to that three-game slide, they'd won seven in a row. Philadelphia had won 5 of 6 before tasting defeat on Tuesday and in those five wins had scored 35 runs. They've been one of the top offensive teams in the National League, especially at home where they are scoring 5.6 runs per game. It may look like a bit of a tough assignment tonight vs. Gio Gonzalez, but the numbers from Gonzalez are a byproduct of a small sample size with two of the three starts coming against the Mets. The Over is 10-3 the Phillies last 13 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Jake Arrieta goes here for Philly and he allowed three home runs in his last start. He'd allowed just five in his previous seven starts combined and the three homers given up came in an American League park. But Arrieta definitely seems to be "slowing down" lately with a 6.19 ERA his previous three starts. Play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia AAA |
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05-15-19 | Angels v. Twins -129 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on MINNESOTA The Twins certainly look like the team to beat in the AL Central at this point. In fact, they are one of just six MLB teams to be currently playing .600 ball or better. They have the second best overall record in the American League after beating the Angels yesterday, 4-3, and it shouldn't be much trouble winning again here on Wednesday afternoon. Minnesota will give the baseball to a hot hand in Jake Odorizzi, who is currently working on a 20-inning scoreless streak. Odorizzi is 2nd in the AL in ERA at 2.32 and during the 20 innings of scoreless baseball, he's allowed a total of just seven hits. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but one start in 2019. His last start saw Odorizzi go seven innings and allow just one hit to Detroit. Another hot hand for the Twins, Kyle Gibson, did very well against the Angels yesterday. It's hard to imagine Odorizzi not doing the same given the struggles we've seen from the Angels lineup on the road this year. Trevor Cahill starts for the road team and he hasn't exactly pitched well of late. We're talking an 8.10 ERA and 1.65 WHIP his L3 starts and a 6.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP overall. Cahill has struggled at Target Field in the past (6.23 ERA) as well. The Twins are giving up only 3.2 runs/game at home this year and only 2.7 the last 7 games overall. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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05-14-19 | Astros v. Tigers OVER 10.5 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Houston-Detroit As you might expect, the Astros rolled to an 8-1 victory last night in the series opener here in Detroit. The Tigers appeared overmatched from the jump as starter Boyd gave up three early runs and Houston never trailed en route to its sixth straight victory. Boyd is Detroit's best starter, so you have to figure the Astros are going to continue to score runs here at Comerica Park, today in particular as they are set to face Ryan Carpenter, whose first start did not go well at all. Against the Angels last Thursday, Carpenter conceded six runs and lasted just five innings. Houston has scored 34 runs in just the last three games and scored 10 or more four times in its last 10 games overall. But we should also see the Tigers put more runs on the board Tuesday. Houston's Wade Miley has pitched well this season, but strikeout numbers are low and four previous starts against Detroit have brought zero wins and an ERA of 6.63. He also has an ERA above 4.00 on the road this year. Play OVER Houston-Detroit AAA |
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05-13-19 | Angels v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER LA Angels-Minnesota Minnesota is the biggest surprise in baseball right now as they have the best overall record at 25-14. They did lose to Detroit on Sunday, but have to be feeling good about their chances tonight as they'll send out Jose Berrios. Berrios has been tremendous so far with 51 strikeouts against only eight walks in 53 1/3 innings. The Twins have won seven of the eight times he's started and Berrios has posted a 2.53 ERA and 0.919. But two previous starts against the Angels have resulted in a 5.56 ERA, so do not be surprised if he gives up more runs here than per usual. Tyler Skaggs goes for the Angels and he has a 6.38 ERA and 1.581 WHIP on the road this season. The Angels let me down big time on Sunday, but are still scoring 5.9 runs/game over the last week. There have also been three times in the last eight games they've allowed 10 or more runs. The Twins are scoring 5.3 runs per game this year, so this total looks low. The Over is 8-1 the Angels last nine tries off a loss and 7-1 the last eight times the Twins have taken on a left-handed starter. Play OVER Angels-Twins AAA |
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05-12-19 | Reds v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Cincinnati-San Francisco In the opener of this three-game series, we took the Over. The Reds definitely did their job in the game, scoring seven times, but the Giants were shutout and thus we missed the Over by a half run. Saturday's game did go Over, with the Reds winning again, this time a closer game. It was 5-4 with the Reds scoring three times in the first and then getting a run in both the 5th and 7th innings to tie and win the game. The Over has hit in five of six meetings this season and it was 4-0 in last weekend's series in Cincy. We think this game goes differently though as SF has Bumgarner on the hill. He's off two straight quality starts where he allowed a total of four runs in 12 innings. Even more impressive is the fact the last one came at Coors Field. His last home start saw him allow just one run to the Dodgers. He did not pitch in the series against the Reds. Cincy goes with Mahle, who has both yet to win and yet to see a start go Over. The Under is 6-0-1 in Mahle starts with the Reds being shutout in three of them! In the seven starts, Cincinnati has scored just nine runs total and four of the games have seen three or fewer runs scored total! Mahle has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last two starts. Play UNDER Cincinnati-San Francisco AAA |
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05-12-19 | Angels -155 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -155 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS You probably don't have to be told that the Orioles are horrible, but allow us to extrapolate. By a large margin, they are the worst team in the American League. They've now been outscored by 79 runs on the season and are just 13-26. They've lost 10 of 13 including four straight. No other team can touch their 233 runs allowed this year, easily the most in all of MLB. The Angels have come into Camden Yards and taken the first two games by scores of 8-3 and 7-2. Par for the course for the O's. We had Los Angeles in the first game and Sunday's finale will be our top MLB side for May. You might think Baltimore has some sort of chance here, given how John Means has pitched. But Sunday's starter has gotten to face two opponents twice so far. Baltimore is 5-15 at home and 5-12 in day games. Canning starts today for the Angels and his first two outings have both resulted in victories with him fanning 13 in 9 2/3 innings. The Angels are now 7-1 vs. the Orioles since the start of last season and 11-3 since the start of the 2017 season. They are 10-4 their last 14 games overall and two of the four losses were down in Mexico against Houston. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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05-11-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 102 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Boston We had the Over in this matchup last night and the Red Sox did all the "heavy lifting" in a 14-1 beatdown of the Mariners. That result is fairly indicative of the way things have been going lately for each team. After digging itself an early season hold, Boston is 14-6 its L20 games and now over .500 for the first time all year. Seattle started 13-2, but is just 7-19 since and trending in a direction that will have them below .500 in no time. Part of the Mariners problem is that they are giving up way too many runs. Yesterday was a "Exhibit A" in that regard. It was the 4th time they've given up double digits runs (10 or more) to the opponent in the last 12 games. At the same time though, they still lead the league in runs scored and home runs. Yesterday was a bad day at the plate, but the M's had scored 10 in two of their five games before last night. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are averaging 5.1 runs/game at Fenway Park. The should do well today against Felix Hernandez, whose best days are long behind him. Hernandez recently allowed 7 runs in a bad night at Yankee Stadium. Things aren't likely to go any better here. The Over is 3-1 in Hernandez's last four starts and he has a 6.16 ERA on the road. Boston's Rick Porcello has pitched better of late, but he still has a 5.11 ERA and 1.567 WHIP on the year and the Over is 6-1 in his 7 starts. Play OVER Seattle-Boston AAA |
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05-10-19 | Reds v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cincinnati-San Francisco This is a rematch of a series played last weekend in Cincinnati. The Reds and Giants split four games, but all of them went Over. Tonight's series opener in San Francisco should also go Over the number. The Giants offense has slowly woken up. After those four straight Overs last weekend in Cincinnati, they put 25 more runs on the board in two games at Colorado. Unfortunately for them, they also allowed 12 yesterday as what would have been a remarkable comeback at Coors Field (trailed 7-0 after two innings) ultimately fell short. That was the 5th time in the past 10 games the Giants pitching staff allowed 10 or more runs. Cincinnati's offense really hasn't been producing that much this year, but they did score 37 times in four games vs. the Giants last weekend. They should score plenty more here against Dereck Rodriguez, who they homered off four times last Saturday while scoring eight runs in just five innings. Rodriguez has allowed a total of 14 runs in his last two starts. The Reds go with Castillo, who allowed four runs in his start vs. SF last weekend. Play OVER Cincinnati-San Francisco AAA |
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05-10-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Boston The Red Sox used yesterday to visit the White House, but are now back to playing baseball as they'll host the Mariners for a three-game series. Things have started come full circle for Boston, who opened the 2019 season by losing three of four up in Seattle. They were 6-13 on April 17th, but have since gone 13-6 to square themselves up at .500. The Mariners are going the opposite direction. They started 13-2, but have cooled off considerably, losing 18 of the last 25 games. One thing they haven't stopped doing though is having their games go Over the total. No team has produced more Overs this year than has Seattle (27-10-3 O/U record). They've hit the most home runs and scored the most runs in all of baseball. The Red Sox are also starting to produce, at least they are at Fenway Park, where they average 5.1 runs per game. Friday starter Rodriguez has seen six of his seven starts go Over, including four straight. Even though he has a 5-2 TSR, his ERA is 5.40 and his WHIP is 1.50, not impressive numbers. Seattle starter Swanson has seen his last three starts all go Over as he has an ERA & WHIP of 5.74 and 1.40 in them. Play OVER Seattle-Boston AAA |
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05-10-19 | Angels -172 v. Orioles | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on LA Angels As long as they stay in the United States, the Angels are doing quite well for themselves lately. Last weekend saw them have to travel down to Mexico for a two-game series against the Astros. Those games went very badly as Los Angeles was outscored 24-6. But prior to heading South of the border, they'd won four straight and had swept Toronto. Upon their return to the U.S., the Angels took two of three from Detroit, including 13-0 win yesterday. Now they open up a series against who is unquestionably the worst team in the American League, Baltimore. The Orioles did have Thursday off, but days off previously have not helped them at all. They are 3-6 in the role this season and 12-36 their L48! Neither starting pitcher for Friday is going to remind you of Cy Young. But Baltimore's Straily has a 7.49 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Angels while LA's Cahill has a 1.97 ERA in five career starts vs. the Orioles. The Angels hit 5 HR's yesterday and the Orioles staff has given up a league-high 80 longballs this season. Play on LA Angels AAA |
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05-09-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Washington-LA Dodgers The Dodgers haven't been giving up many runs at home all season and they shouldn't give up very many today as they open a weekend series against the slumping Nationals. Washington has lost six straight series and four games in a row and the biggest reason for that is they just aren't scoring. Three Opening Day starters are on the disabled list and they have scored more than three runs in just 2 of their previous 13 games. Dodger Stadium hasn't been too kind to opposing teams so far as they are hitting just .223 here. Rich Hill should take care of this scuffling Washington lineup tonight. He has an 11-0 TSR his last 11 starts vs. NL East teams. If the Nats are too have any chance of winning this game, it will be because of Patrick Corbin, who had a 0.77 ERA in four starts vs. LA last year when he was a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Corbin posted a 2.49 ERA in his first five starts this year and has had only one non-quality outing all year. Play UNDER Washington-LA Dodgers AAA |
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05-09-19 | Reds v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cincinnati-Oakland The Reds and A's went 13 yesterday with the home team finally winning 5-4. That's a final score that we'd "accept" again this afternoon given the total posted by the oddsmakers. Cincinnati has been one of the lower scoring teams in all of MLB, but maybe a visit to an American League park might do the trick? Now they get to use a designated hitter. They've already been trending in an "Over direction" recently with five of the last six games going that way. Oakland has held them to just two runs in the two games so far (won both) as Michael Fiers tossed a no-hitter Tuesday. They will send Chris Bassitt to the mound for the finale. But while Bassitt has a 2.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three starts, we don't expect him to pitch all that well today. Same for Reds starter Roark, who has a 1.53 WHIP on the year (seven starts). It's still a limited sample size with Bassitt to draw any real conclusions. The Over is 5-2 in Cincy's last seven Interleague road games, which supports our theory concerning the DH. The Over is also 24-9-1 the L34 times the A's scored at least five runs the previous game. Play OVER Cincinnati-Oakland AAA |
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05-08-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Minnesota-Toronto Minnesota delivered another shutout against Toronto on Tuesday, winning 3-0, but tonight's game should feature a lot more runs. The two starters here simply are not as good as who pitched yesterday. The surging Twins got a four-hitter from their top starter Jose Berrios, but Kyle Gibson is probably the 4th best option in their rotation at this point. He has a 4.68 ERA overall and should feel very lucky to have a 3-1 team start record on the road seeing his ERA and WHIP are 5.31 and 1.62 respectively. As for the Blue Jays, they'll be sending out Trent Thornton, who is not only still winless after seven starts but he also has a 5.00 ERA at home. The Twins have been doing a lot of scoring on the road so far, averaging 5.8 runs/game. That's #4 in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Toronto has yet to score in this series, losing the first two games by scores of 8-0 and 3-0. That should change here, even though the poor offensive numbers might suggest otherwise. The Over is 5-1 in Gibson's last six starts against the Blue Jays. Play OVER Minnesota-Toronto AAA |
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05-08-19 | White Sox v. Indians -195 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on CLEVELAND The Indians should not be losing two in a row to the White Sox, but that's precisely what has transpired over Monday and Tuesday. At the risk of stating the obvious, it's difficult to win in this game when you don't score any runs. Over its last three games, Cleveland has scored a grand total of one run! Whereas Sunday and Monday's losses (Sunday to Seattle) were lopsided, last night was a 2-0 game that they managed only five hits. This issue has to be corrected eventually and we think tonight is that time as the Tribe will be facing a struggling starter in Reynaldo Lopez, whose numbers leave a lot to be desired. In seven starts, Lopez has a 6.69 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. After it appeared he might be turning a corner, he allowed six runs to Boston on Friday. We played against him then and will do so again tonight. Cleveland's Shane Bieber has allowed three runs or less in every start but one this year, which will always give his team a chance to win. The runs have to start coming for the Indians sooner or later and we'll call for them to break out of the slump here. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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05-07-19 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee Playing the Under here was a rare loss for us on Monday, but coming back with it is the right call. There has been a pitching change for Milwaukee. They will be going the "opener" route as originally scheduled starter Freddy Peralta has been terrible in the first inning (12.81 ERA). Peralta will pitch eventually in this game and we like the move by Brewers skipper Craig Counsell. Washington will go with Stephen Straburg and there's no reason to expect we won't be getting a strong outing from him. In his last three starts, Strasburg has a 1.25 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 29 strikeouts. He's gone at least 6 2/3 innings in all three and never allowed more than two earned runs. Last night's game was a 5-3 Milwaukee win, just sneaking Over the total of 7.5. Be ready for an Under tonight though as we "get it back." The Brewers have given up three runs or less in six of their last eight games and every game in their last series went Under. The Nationals have gone Under in 5 of their last 7. Play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-07-19 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER LA Angels-Detroit Unlike the other two games in this package, this is a series opener. The Angels and Tigers had Monday off. For the Angels, the day off was needed as they returned to the United States after a somewhat disastrous two game trip down to Mexico where they gave up 26 runs to the Astros. Before that, they'd won five in a row. Detroit managed to win its last game, in walkoff fashion, beating Kansas City 5-2, but that was after allowing 15 runs in a loss on Saturday. We expect lots of runs to be scored in this game as well, even if the distribution ends up being a little more even. Griffin Canning will be making only his second start for Los Angeles. The first was okay, but he lasted just 4 1/3 innings and still gave up three runs. Daniel Norris goes for the Tigers and he's lasted only five innings in each of his three turns. The respective workloads of the two starters lead us to believe we'll be seeing plenty of the bullpens here and that's a good thing for an Over bet seeing as Angels relievers have a 6.07 ERA/1.67 WHIP on the road while Tigers relievers have a 5.40 ERA/1.53 WHIP overall. Play OVER LA Angels-Detroit AAA |
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05-07-19 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Seattle-Yankees Seattle started the year like a house of fire, winning 13 of their first 15 games and putting up some incredible offensive numbers in the process. They hit at least one home run in 25 straight games, which is a new MLB record to start a season. Things have since screeched to a grinding halt at the plate, but that doesn't mean the Mariners aren't still an "Over team." The Over is 26-8-3 in their 37 games played this year as they are now giving up runs in bunches. The Yankees scored 7 on them yesterday. There was a point last week when they allowed 11 or more runs three times in a four-game stretch. One of those was started by Marco Gonzales, who lasted only 1 2/3 innings. This will be Gonzales first time starting since then. He'll be opposed by Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has definitely had the Mariners number in his career, but despite that and the fact Seattle only scored three runs yesterday, look for this one to still go Over. Seattle did score 10 runs on Sunday and still leads MLB with 70 home runs. Play OVER Seattle-Yankees AAA |
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05-06-19 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Washington-Milwaukee Seeing Max Scherzer with a 1-6 team start record is certainly something we're unaccustomed to, but it's the reality entering Monday's start in Milwaukee. The Washington ace really hasn't pitched that poorly, although he's definitely not been up to the usual Scherzer standard. His WHIP is a very respectable 1.17 though. Even though the Nationals have lost his last two starts, both were quality efforts from Scherzer as he went seven innings and allowed three runs or less each time. Strikeout numbers are still good. So we expect Scherzer to pitch well in this spot tonight. He has a 2.40 ERA in eight career games vs. Milwaukee. The problem lately for Washington has been scoring runs as an injury-depleted lineup has been held to three runs or less in 8 of its last 10 games. Milwaukee is off a series (three-game sweep of the Mets) where every game stayed Under. The Under is 6-1 this year with tonight's starter (Chacin) on the mound. Chacin has pitched better at home so far and has a 2.88 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Nationals. Play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-05-19 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -126 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS After taking a hard-luck 1-0 loss on Friday (game went 12 innings), the Rangers came back and beat the Blue Jays 8-5 last night. They jumped all over Toronto starter Pannone, scoring seven times off him in just 2 1/3 innings. Today, they hope for similar results against Clay Buchholz, whose best days are pretty clearly behind him. Buchholz is still winless after four starts, though the team has gone 2-2. But Toronto has lost the last two and Buchholz hasn't made it past the fifth in any of the last three. The Blue Jays aren't a strong hitting team either, averaging just 4.0 rpg on the year. There's only been one time where they have scored more than five runs in the last nine games. Also winless in four starts is Rangers lefty Drew Smyly. The only difference with him is the team has lost all four times. He's also not made it very deep into games. But at least Smyly has an offense that can adequately support him. Texas is averaging 6.1 runs scored in home games this year. Buchholz is 0-4 lifetime in this park with a 6.00 ERA. Smyly has a 2.76 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. Toronto. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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05-05-19 | Braves v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Atlanta-Miami No team has scored fewer runs this season than Miami. They have just 90 in 32 games, which means less than three per game and they've stayed true to that form in this series vs. the Braves where both games have seen them score just twice. But both games have gone Over due to Atlanta scoring as the Braves have been one of the highest scoring teams in the National League. Thus, this game would normally set up as a mismatch, but don't be shocked if/when Miami starter Lopez keeps his team in this one. Lopez has a 3.18 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in his last three starts. That he gave up four runs his last time on the mound seems pretty unfair seeing as he allowed only three hits. What's really crazy about Lopez's starts though is how few runs Miami has scored. They've been shutout in three of them and scored just four total in the last five! All five starts have gone Under. Braves starter Teheran shouldn't have much trouble keeping the Marlins bats in check here. Take away the three home runs he allowed vs. San Diego on Tuesday and Teheran actually pitched pretty well in his last outing. Play UNDER Atlanta-Miami AAA |
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05-04-19 | Red Sox -161 v. White Sox | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON This week has seen us call for a Red Sox resurgence and they've delivered in kind by going 4-1 the last five games. They swept Oakland earlier in the week, at home, and then after a walkoff loss in the opener here in Chicago, it was an easy 6-1 win. That was Chris Sale's first victory of 2019. We'll back Boston again in this spot as the Sox of a different color are no match for them. Now we know that Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to be an effective starter this season for Boston. However, he's never lost in three previous starts against the White Sox. Chicago is still giving up over 6.0 runs/game at home too. Only two teams give up more runs in home games and they are Colorado (Coors Field) and Baltimore (worst team in baseball). Boston easily could be on a five-game win streak heading into this game and they should "get to" White Sox starter Banuelos, who has made only two starts so far and both were against Baltimore. This is a big step up. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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05-04-19 | Mariners v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Cleveland We had the Under when these teams met Friday. That was an easy winner with the Indians winning 2-1 in walkoff fashion on Tyler Naquin's pinch-hit single that came with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Cleveland is now 4-0 vs. Seattle this season. After starting the year by winning 13 of their first 15 games, the Mariners are really on a downward slide right now. They've lost 14 of 19 and in five of the last seven games, they've scored 0 or 1 run. But the Over is still 23-8-3 in all of their games and we expect them to rediscover some of that "lost" offense today against Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has given up four or more runs in half of his starts so far. Seattle has still scored the most runs in all of baseball with 190 in 34 games. They've also hit 61 home runs, tied for the major league lead. Unfortunately, it doesn't help them that they have Mike Leake pitching today. Leake arrives in poor form, having delivering a 5.82 ERA and 1.588 WHIP his last three turns in the rotation. The Over is 3-0 when he starts on the road this season. He gave up nine runs in his last start. Much different game than last night. Play OVER Seattle-Cleveland AAA |
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05-03-19 | Red Sox -187 v. White Sox | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on BOSTON Terrible loss for Boston last night as a three-run HR by the White Sox Nicky Delmonico ended the game. The Red Sox went into the bottom of the ninth up 4-3, an advantage they'd held since going up in the top of the seventh. The loss came on the heels of a three-game sweep of Oakland, which was at home, but Boston had an edge going into yesterday in that the White Sox had just played a doubleheader on Wednesday. We expect the Red Sox to bounce back in a major way Friday with Chris Sale on the mound. Shockingly, Sale has yet to win a game this year. He's 0-5 in six starts with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Not like him at all, but who better for him to turn it around against than his former team? Obviously, Sale is accustomed to dominating in this park. Can't say the same for White Sox starter Lopez, who brings a 6.33 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in four home starts into tonight's game. Boston is 25-8 the last 33 times it has been priced north of -175 on the road. Chicago is 7-29 the L36 times it has been priced north of +175 at home. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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05-03-19 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Milwaukee You can't get any lower scoring than the Mets last two games, each of which were 1-0 finals. They won one and lost one, the win coming yesterday thanks to a tremendous outing from Noah Syndergaard. The loss was started by Jacob deGrom. Tonight's starter Steven Matz doesn't have the resume of those two starters, but we expect him to pitch well in this spot. Matz's overall numbers remain heavily skewed due to one terrible effort against the Phillies. But the other five starts have all seen him allow no more than three runs. Matz's last two starts have seen him go 13 innings while allowing only three runs. Meanwhile, Milwaukee just gave up 22 runs the last two days in a pair of losses to Colorado (11 each game). That shouldn't continue here seeing how few runs the Mets have scored recently. They have put just 22 runs on the road in the last eight games. So look for a quality start here from Brandon Woodruff, who gave up just one run in five innings when he faced the Mets last week. In that same series, Matz went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits. Play UNDER Mets-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-03-19 | Mariners v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Seattle-Cleveland The Indians were dealt a big blow in the last 48 hours when Corey Kluber was struck with a line drive, breaking his right arm. We'll see how that affects them moving forward, but another issue the club is dealing with is an inability to consistently score runs. They've scored three runs or less in six of the last eight games and are hitting only .215 as a team. That's the lowest team BA in the American League. Seattle is near the top of most offensive categories, but they seem to be running on fumes now after losing seven of nine. They're batting just .202 the last 18 games. The last four games have seen them get outscored 46-7! They were swept at home by the Indians just a couple of weeks ago. Two struggling offenses should result in an Under in this game, even with neither starter possessing overwhelmingly great numbers. But Shane Bieber got the job done for Cleveland at Seattle in that last series, limiting them to one run and four hits. For the Mariners, Kikuchi has allowed more than 3 ER in just two starts. He'll stop the bleeding in terms of runs allowed, but we don't expect much scoring here from Seattle either. Play UNDER Seattle-Cleveland AAA |
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05-02-19 | Red Sox -170 v. White Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON It was just a couple of days ago that we predicted the Red Sox would start to break out from what had been a terribly disappointing start to the 2019 season. Sure enough, they just swept a three-game series from Oakland. We had them in the first two games before laying off yesterday afternoon. They outscored the A's 21-8. Now the Sox hit the road for the weekend, but it'll be Chicago and the White Sox aren't likely to measure up. The White Sox ended April by winning three in a row, but May began with a doubleheader that they split with Baltimore. Playing a doubleheader yesterday puts them at a slight disadvantage right off the bat today. So too does facing a red hot David Price. After a rough start to the year, Price has settled down with a 2.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in his last three starts. He's allowed only four runs in 18 innings and has 24 strikeouts. Compare that to the numbers of Chicago's Lucas Giolito, who has a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last three trips to the mound. The White Sox give up 6.3 runs per game at home. They have lost the last six time Giolito has started at Guaranteed Rate Field. Boston is 12-1 in Price's previous 13 starts vs teams that have a losing record. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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05-02-19 | Rays v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Tampa Bay-Kansas City Shockingly, the Royals were able to sweep Wednesday's doubleheader from the Rays. That result is in no way indicative of how the two teams have started the season. Kansas City is still only 11-20 on the year and in last place in the AL Central. Tampa Bay is 19-11 and still leads the AL East. The Rays had also gone 10-1 vs. KC since the start of last season before losing two yesterday. Maybe they get their revenge today, but look for the Under to definitely hit. A big reason why the Rays are in first place is their pitching, which is tied for the Major League lead in runs allowed. Charlie Morton goes today and not only is he unbeaten (3-0) in six starts, he has a 1.72 ERA in his three road starts. Now the Rays were only able to score two runs in both games Wednesday, which is obviously a problem. Danny Duffy will make just his second start of 2019 here after coming off the disabled list. He was OK on Friday as he allowed three runs in five innings. We expect him to be better today. Duffy has a 2.90 ERA in five career starts vs. Tampa Bay. In those five starts, he has 37 strikeouts and only eight walks in 31 innings pitched. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Kansas City AAA |
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05-01-19 | Reds v. Mets -172 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -172 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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05-01-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER St. Louis-Washington Max Scherzer is from St. Louis, so getting to face the Cardinals will always hold a special meaning for him. But the bottom line is that in 2019 Scherzer has not looked like the same pitcher we're used to seeing. His first month of the season produced a 1-5 team start record as well as a 4.12 ERA. That the Nationals are 0-4 at home with him on the mound is really surprising. Now Scherzer has pitched better in D.C. than his record would suggest. He's also still striking out plenty of hitters. Regardless of how well Scherzer pitches Wednesday, we feel this game is set to go Over due to the Nationals hitters facing Miles Mikolas, who has not been very sharp for the Cardinals. Six starts have brought a 5.29 ERA for Mikolas and the Over is 5-1. The road is where he's been at his worst as the Over is 3-0 and he has a 6.60 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. In three games vs. Washington, Mikokas has a 6.43 ERA. Both offenses are averaging more than 5.0 runs/game this season. This should be an easy Over as St. Louis is 14-3 Over after giving up two runs or less in its last game. Play OVER St. Louis-Washington AAA |
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05-01-19 | Tigers v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Detroit-Philadelphia This is going to be a low-scoring affair. For starters, Detroit doesn't bring much offense to the table. They are last in the American League in runs scored. Put them in a National League park where they can't use the designated hitter and you have to figure that they'll really struggle to put runs on the road. Sure enough, they scored only three times last night, but that was enough for a win over the Phillies. Holding Philly to just one run again might prove difficult, but we think we can count on yet another rough day at the plate for the visitors. The Phillies are heavy favorites Wednesday and if they can get to the ninth with a lead, that will chop off half an inning. Seven of the Phillies last nine games have seen the losing side held to 0 or 1 run. Off their last two losses, they came back and delivered a win in shutout fashion. Tonight's starter Aaron Nola gave up just one run in his last start and his two best outings of the year were both here at home. Tigers starter Norris is just two starts removed from tossing five shutout innings. He's given up two runs or less in three of his last five starts. Play UNDER Detroit-Philadelphia AAA |
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04-30-19 | Blue Jays v. Angels -141 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS The Angels aren't a good team, but we've kind of had our "finger on the pulse" when it comes to taking them, if the situation calls for it. The situation calls for it here as they open a three-game series at home vs. Toronto. The Blue Jays are ripe for a letdown after sweeping Oakland for a second time this season. The latest sweep was at home over the weekend, but two of the three wins came in the final at-bat. That last series also saw Vlad Guerrero Jr finally make his big league debut. This series will be a homecoming of sorts for the Blue Jays top prospect as his father used to play in this stadium. However, while the Blue Jays may have swept the A's, Guerrero Jr was just 3 for 12 at the plate. Him being on the roster seems to have overvalued Toronto. The key rookie in this game may actually be Angels starting pitcher Griffin Canning, who makes his first start for the big league club. Canning was outstanding for Triple A, giving up just one run in 16 innings. All Toronto can offer up is the aging Clay Buchholz, who has a 4.60 ERA in three starts. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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04-30-19 | A's v. Red Sox -154 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON We had the Red Sox yesterday (they won 9-4) and our view that this is a series where they'll get "back on track" (whether it be temporarily or permanently) remains unchanged. Tuesday's starter Rick Porcello has been pretty bad so far this year, but Oakland's Aaron Brooks hasn't been any better. The Athletics are 0-4 so far priced between +125 and +175 on the road and that's where we find them today. They've dropped four in a row, all on the road, and this is a team clearly searching for answers right now. The A's did take an early 4-0 lead on Monday, but an error-filled 3rd inning led to a six-run rally for Boston. That one inning may be all that the Red Sox need to get things pointed in the right direction here. Brooks has given up a total of six home runs in his last four starts for Oakland, who is 19-46 in their last 65 games played at Fenway Park. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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04-29-19 | Astros v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Houston-Minnesota Minnesota just hit 12 home runs in a three-game sweep over the weekend. Of course, they had the luxury of facing a Baltimore pitching staff that is bad as any in baseball. It won't be as easy to start the week as they are going up against Houston, beginning with Justin Verlander occupying the mound Monday. But the Twins are at home at least. And this time it won't be them having to do all the scoring for Over bettors. The Astros are off a hard fought four-game split with Cleveland, which ended with a 4-1 win last night. But when they faced the Twins last week, they scored 22 runs in three games. Verlander has obviously been great in 2019 as was anticipated. He held Minnesota's lineup to 1 run and 4 hits in a win last week. But the Twins still average 5.7 runs per game for the year and should be able to put more on the board here in their home park. Jake Odorizzi has been surprisingly good for Minny, but Monday's starter is also at the disadvantage of facing the opponent for the second time in a week. The Over is 5-1 the last six times Odorizzi has started a series opener. The Twins have scored 55 runs in the last eight games. Play OVER Houston-Minnesota AAA |
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04-29-19 | A's v. Red Sox -140 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON By their standard, the Red Sox have endured a terrible start to the season. Remember that at this time last year, they were 21-7. The club would finish up 52.5 units in 2018 and of course win the World Series. Fast forward to the present and they are just 11-17 and the worst bet in all of MLB. They dropped to 0-5 in Chris Sale starts yesterday, losing to the Rays 5-2. But - even if it's only temporary - there should be a turnaround this week at Fenway vs. Oakland. The A's aren't exactly playing well right now either. They just got swept for a second time this year by the Blue Jays. Sunday's loss was an 11-inning affair, the second time in three games they lost in walkoff fashion. Both Monday starters have pitched well of late as Oakland's Montas is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA his last three starts and Boston's Rodriguez is 2-0 his last three with a 3.00 ERA. But we'll lean on the fact both of Rodriguez's starts at home have gone quite well. He's allowed just three runs and five hits in 12 2/3 innings. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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04-28-19 | Indians v. Astros -116 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON The series may not have started well for the Astros, but they now have a chance to earn a split with the Indians tonight on ESPN. After dropping the first two games, by scores of 2-1 and 6-3, they were able to pull out a win in 10 innings yesterday, 4-3. They may have gotten only five hits, but the big one was Tony Kemp's walkoff HR. The 'Stros have what appears to be a considerable edge in starting pitching tonight as Wade Miley goes against Carlos Carrasco. Miley has a 3.58 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his five starts while Carrasco has struggled with a 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Carrasco was better in his last two starts, but has twice allowed six runs on the road. Cleveland has not been good offensively this year and the road has given them real trouble when it comes to putting runs on the board. The Indians are batting only .201 when not playing at Progressive Field. Houston is 9-3 at Minute Maid Park. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-28-19 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Texas-Seattle Seattle got clubbed yesterday, losing 15-1 to Texas. That was a case of getting a taste of its own medicine as the Mariners are the team used to putting a bunch of runs on the board. They lead the majors with 183 runs scored. But scoring over six runs per contest is a pace no team is going to be able to maintain. For the sake of comparison, only four teams averaged 5.0 runs/game last season. We have already seen the Mariners begin to taper off as they've been held to three runs or less in three of their past five ballgames. The Over is still 20-7-3 in all games, but that is going to start changing as the offense slowly begins to regress. They are also not going to be giving up anywhere close to the number of runs they allowed Saturday. Texas had not topped five runs in the last week before scoring 15 times yesterday. Starting today for the Mariners will be Erik Swanson. While 0-2, he has a 0.77 WHIP. Lance Lynn goes for the Rangers. He was hit hard by Oakland in his most recent start, but had given up two runs or less in each of three starts prior to that one. The under is 4-1 the last five times Texas has been off a win. Play UNDER Texas-Seattle AAA |
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04-27-19 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Cubs-Diamondbacks Both starters in this matchup have really struggled so far in 2019. Yu Darvish of the Cubs has a 5.96 ERA and 1.72 WHIP after five starts. (The team is just 1-4 in those games). Zack Godley of Arizona may have a better team start record (3-2), but the personal numbers more closely resemble Darvish. Godley has a 6.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. So expect a lot of runs to be scored Saturday night at Chase Field. Last night, the Diamondbacks opened the series by winning 8-3. It was their fifth straight win and they've scored 8 or more runs in three of the five wins. This is the second series of the year between the teams and these games at Chase Field figure to be higher scoring than the ones at Wrigley were. The Cubs average 6.3 runs per game on the road, but also allow 6.2. The Cubs bullpen has also been quite terrible this year and things are even more dire on the road with a 7.20 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. All three Darvish starts on the road have been Overs. Four of Godley's overall starts have been Overs. The Diamondbacks have the most extra base hits in the National League with 113. They homered twice off Darvish last week. Play OVER Cubs-Arizona AAA |
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04-27-19 | Yankees v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Yankees-Giants Playing the Under on this matchup last night was a rare misfire for us and our lone loss on the board. We'll go with the Under again today. The Giants offense remains very poor and we remain skeptical that the "rogue's gallery" that the Yankees are trotting out as an everyday lineup can get the job done on the regular. San Francisco scored just three runs Friday, which is right in line with their season average. They are 28th in runs scored, 29th in batting average and 29th in OPS. They figure to not do much today against a starter (J.A. Happ) that has delivered two straight quality outings. Happ may need another quality outing today if the Yanks are to win though. Yes, they managed to score 11 runs last night. But they don't have Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton or a designated hitter in this series. The former two absences are due to injuries while the latter is because of National League rules. Whatever the reasons, it's certainly to the benefit of Giants starter Derek Holland, who has allowed more than three runs only once in five starts anyway. Play UNDER Yankees-Giants AAA |
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04-27-19 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Cincinnati-St. Louis The Reds exploded for 12 runs Friday night. Such an offensive display is highly irregular for them. Before yesterday, they had barely been averaging three runs per game on the road and were batting less than .200 as a team. At the same time, they've also allowed the fewest runs among NL teams, so them holding the Cards to 1 was pretty par for the course. Obviously, Cincy has been a strong Under bet the first month of the season with 19 of their first 25 games going that way. The Under is 4-0 when Saturday starter Tyler Mahle is pitching. Figure on the Reds bats being somewhat silenced today, at least compared to yesterday's performance. Day games have resulted in even fewer runs per game than usual for the Reds. Dakota Hudson has been far from great in four starts for St. Louis, but facing the team with the lowest batting average in baseball would seem to be a favorable matchup. The Reds are also bottom five in runs and OPS. They won't be hitting five home runs again as they did Friday. Play UNDER Cincinnati-St. Louis AAA |
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04-26-19 | Yankees v. Giants UNDER 6.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Yankees-Giants The Yankees have a real "skeleton crew" for a lineup right now with no Aaron Judge and no Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. Something else they won't have in the lineup this weekend is a DH. They head to San Francisco to face the National League's Giants and tonight's game figures to be a challenge for the Pinstripes at the plate. They'll have to go against Madison Bumgarner. Stanton has actually had a lot of previous success against Bumgarner, so he'll be especially missed. No one in the projected lineup for the Yankees on Friday has ever faced Bumgarner. MadBum has a 0.97 WHIP in five starts this season. He'll be opposed by James Paxton, who has delivered back to back outstanding starts for New York. Paxton has delivered 14 consecutive scoreless innings with only five hits allowed and 24 strikeouts. The Giants are one of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball right now, hitting only .212 as a team (.196 at home) and averaging only 3.1 runs/game (2nd fewest overall). This shapes up to be a really low-scoring game. Play UNDER Yankees-Giants AAA |
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04-26-19 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Angels-KC The Angels came through in the clutch for us last night, beating the Yankees 11-5. They actually trailed 4-0 headed into the bottom of the fifth, which is when the game totally changed. That kind of effort at the plate has been pretty rare for LA this season, though there have been two previous times they scored at least 10 runs in a game. However, each time they followed with an Under the next time out. Such should be the case again tonight as they head to Kansas City. The Under is 8-2-1 in all Angels road games so far. Starter Tyler Skaggs has seen the Under go 4-0 his last four starts, even though he gave up three home runs in his last start, which was two weeks ago. He's battled a sprained left ankle. Kansas City's Danny Duffy is starting for the first time all season. His one rehab start (in Double A) went well enough. Skaggs has a 0.43 ERA in three previous starts vs. KC. The Royals also scored 10 runs in their last game, so they're due for an off-night at the plate as well. Play UNDER LA Angels-Kansas City AAA |
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04-25-19 | Yankees v. Angels +1.5 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* RUN LINE play on the LA ANGELS +1.5 For the second straight series, the Angels find themselves in an unenviable position. As the home team, they've lost the first three games of a four game series. Now in this exact same scenario, we played them Sunday against Seattle and they won. It was an easy win too as they coasted to an 8-6 victory (led 8-1 going into the 9th) behind Jaime Barria. But tonight they face the Yankees. As daunting a prospect as that may sound, two of the Angels three losses in this series have come by one run. Last night was brutal as they blew a 5-run lead and lost 6-5. Now 1-9 the L10 games, five of those losses for the Angels have come by exactly one run. So with the +1.5 now an option (wasn't Sunday vs. Seattle), we'll take it. Look for Trevor Cahill to pitch better than he has recently while we expect the opposite from Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka. Three of the Yankees last four wins have been by one run. At this price, the run line is a tremendous value Thursday. Play on LA ANGELS +1.5 AAA |
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04-24-19 | Tigers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Detroit-Boston This three-game report really sees us "bucking" the early season trends. We're going Over with the top Under team (Cincinnati) and Under on one of the top Over teams (Baltimore). Right below the Reds in the Under "pecking order" is a Detroit team whose games are averaging less than 7.0 runs (14-8 Under). They've scored the third fewest runs while giving up the fifth fewest. But, in line with the rest of today's card, we're going the other way today. Yesterday, they swept Boston in a day/night doubleheader here at Fenway Park (won 7-4 and 4-2). The Red Sox couldn't possibly be more disappointing and a big reason for that is they have given up the second most runs in all of baseball. Only Baltimore has given up more. Tonight's starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been a big part of the problem as he has a 7.20 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through four starts. The Red Sox bullpen has also been very bad this year. Tyson Ross will start for the Tigers and he has struggled in both road starts, walking more batters (8) than he has struck out (7). His ERA and WHIP in those two starts are: 4.91 and 1.55 respectively. Play OVER Detroit-Boston AAA |
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04-24-19 | White Sox v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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04-24-19 | Braves v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play OVER Atlanta-Cincinnati The Reds are by far and away the top Under team in baseball right now. They came into last night's game vs. Atlanta sporting a 17-4 Under mark in the first 21 games. But wouldn't you know - last night's game went Over with the Reds bats even showing up for once. They won 7-6, which snapped a 7-game Under streak. Three of the Reds previous four Overs came in a row, but since then the Under had been 10-1. Tonight, we'll look for another Over. Last night was the Reds most runs scored in a game since crushing Miami 14-0 back on the 9th. They may be last in batting average, but as we saw last night, Atlanta can be accommodating. The Braves are giving up 6.3 runs/game on the road, the highest average in all of baseball. Mike Soroka will start for them here and he has just one start under his belt. On the flip side, Atlanta is scoring 6.2 runs/game itself on the road. Is it any wonder the Over is 7-2 in their nine road games? Braves hitters are quite familiar with the pitcher they'll face today, Tanner Roark, who spent the last several seasons with Washington. Play OVER Atlanta-Cincinnati AAA |
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04-23-19 | Rangers v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Texas-Oakland I took Oakland last night and that was a pretty easy winner as they blew out the Rangers 6-1. The teams had a similar number of hits (A's 7 to Rangers 6), but the obvious difference is that the A's were able to take advantage when they had runners in scoring position. The final result was also a departure from what we'd seen from each club recently. Texas came into this series having won 6 of 7. But all those games were played in Arlington. The road has seen them go just 2-5 and they've been held to two runs or less in four of those seven games. Oakland had lost five of six going into yesterday and had scored two runs or less in four of its last five. We expect a low scoring game tonight as two good looking starting pitchers take the hill. Lance Lynn is one Ranger not bothered by the road. His two starts away from Arlington have yielded a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Oakland's Frankie Montas has a 1.46 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in two home starts. Montas has yet to allow more than 3 ER in a start while Lynn has given up just five in his last 18 2/3 innings pitched. Play UNDER Texas-Oakland AAA |
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04-23-19 | Phillies v. Mets -133 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS This series started with the Mets winning 5-1 last night on ESPN. For the Mets, it was a much needed result after dropping six of eight, including two of three over the weekend in St. Louis. The Phillies still share lead the NL East at 12-10 overall, though they have a positive run differential while the Mets are still "in the black." But we won't pay much mind to that tonight due to the Phillies having a banged up lineup that simply isn't hitting much right now. They are just 7 for 39 with runners in scoring position the last five games and were held to three hits total in Monday's loss. Philly has scored three runs or less in five of its last six games and just one each of the last two games. Tonight, they'll face Zach Wheeler, who pitched well against them last week only to get a hard luck loss. It was the second straight quality start for Wheeler and his longest of the year. Philly turns to Eflin, who has yet to pitch against the Mets this year. But in seven career starts against them, his ERA is 5.25. We like the Mets here. Play on NY METS AAA |
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04-22-19 | Rangers v. A's -125 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND Both teams are off one-run games Sunday, the only difference being that Texas won theirs. That lone difference is pretty indicative of the way the respective teams come into this series. The Rangers have won six out of their last seven while the A's have dropped five of their last six. Oakland was just swept here at home by Toronto, scoring just 1 run in each of the first two games, then leaving the potential game-winning run on base for the final out yesterday. At least the A's managed to score four times on Sunday. The offense should wake up tonight against Mike Minor, even though Minor has pitched pretty well since a shaky first start. Minor is off a complete game shutout, his third quality start in a role, but we're still not sold. Oakland turns to Chris Bassitt, who is making his first start of the year. Something to watch for here is how much the Rangers tend to drop off offensively on the road. They've lost 15 of the last 19 games here in Oakland as well. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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04-21-19 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Toronto-Oakland Toronto is seeking a three-game sweep in Oakland on Sunday. They've taken the first two games by scores of 5-1 and 10-1. Once again, we expect the home team to do little scoring. Over their last four games, the A's have scored a grand total of five runs, never scoring more than two in any game. That kind of offensive output is a far cry from how they started the year. At one point, they had gone Over in eight straight games. As for the Blue Jays, they've been one of the weaker offensive teams in all of baseball. Saturday marked a season high in both runs (10) and hits (15), so expect a lot less at the plate today. Oakland's Brett Anderson is 3-0 this year with a 2.62 ERA. Toronto's Aaron Sanchez is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA. Sunday's two starters should "rule the day" here in a game that shouldn't see much offense. The Blue Jays have only allowed 84 runs in 22 games. It's a little surprising that the Under hasn't come in more for them, but it will today. Play UNDER Toronto-Oakland AAA |
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04-21-19 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 109 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-Miami Miami just fired its hitting coach. Considering they had scored the fewest number of runs in all of baseball, it was a predictable move. In their first game since the firing, they scored nine runs in a shocking display against Max Scherzer and in the process guaranteed they'd win their first series all year. We seriously doubt it was all on the hitting coach though and with the hitters remaining the same, expect the Marlins struggles at the plate to continue moving forward. They'll have to face arch nemesis Stephen Strasburg today. Strasburg has had Miami's number through the years. In 31 career games, he's 17-7 against them with a 3.02 ERA. In 173 innings pitched, he has 182 strikeouts. Miami will go with Trevor Richards, who has a killer changeup, but zero wins. But with the Nationals having been held to four runs or less in seven of the last eight games, Richards may very well be in line for that elusive victory today. Regardless, this will be a low-scoring affair. Play UNDER Washington-Miami AAA |
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04-21-19 | White Sox v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER White Sox-Tigers These teams were rained out on Saturday, thus they finish what will be a three-game set here and this is a rubber match. Detroit took the first game 9-7. They gave up seven runs again the second time, but this time couldn't score enough to keep pace with the White Sox, who limited the Tigers to just three on Friday. The Tigers probably like their chances going against Reynaldo Lopez today as he's really struggled this year with an 8.85 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. But Lopez was much better in his last start where he held the Royals to just one run in six innings. Detroit goes with Daniel Norris, who will be making his first start of 2019. Norris, who has pitched out of the bullpen so far, was slated to go yesterday before Mother Nature came calling. He has pitched well in the past vs. the White Sox (2.53 ERA in five appearances). This is Lopez's scheduled turn, so he's working on normal rest (Ervin Santana skipped). Lopez has had success against Detroit (3.22 ERA in seven starts). The Tigers are only averaging 3.0 runs/game. This one stays Under. Play UNDER Chicago-Detroit AAA |
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04-20-19 | Mariners v. Angels -117 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS We had the Under in last night's game and that cashed with little room to spare. It was a 5-3 win for the Mariners, who came into the series having lost six in a row (swept by both Cleveland and Houston). Now its the Angels that have dropped five straight and they are also 0-4 this year vs. Seattle. Though an impressive 15-8 with 148 runs scored, we're not sold on this hot start lasting for the Mariners. Nor are we sold on the Angels being as bad as they've looked. The home run ball has been huge thus far for Seattle and last night (hit four of them) accounted for all five runs. That's concerning with Saturday's starter for the Angels (Trevor Cahill) having been so susceptible to the long ball so far. But look for Cahill to turn it around here. He previously held the Mariners to one run on three hits back on April 3rd. He's off a rough showing in Texas, but had gone at least six innings each of the first three starts. The Mariners go with Kikuchi, making his 6th start tonight. He has a 5.29 ERA in the last three and has been a slow starter. He's also still winless. That will stay the case after tonight. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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04-19-19 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Seattle-LA Angels Something had to give last night as the Mariners, losers of six in a row, took on an Angels team that had dropped three straight. Turns out that it was the former's losing skid that came to an end and it did so in a way that has been all too familiar - Seattle scoring a ton of runs. They won 11-10, increasing their league leading total of runs scored to 143 (in 22 games played). The Mariners actually blew an 8-run advantage before scoring the go-ahead run in the top of the 9th. The Angels scored all but one of their runs in one inning (7th) and the absence of a big inning tonight is probable for a team that's gone 13-5-1 Under in all games this season. Even worse is they are facing a lefty (Marco Gonzales) and are 1-4 vs. lefties (Under is 5-0), scoring only 1.8 runs/game and batting .173. Gonzales has allowed three runs or fewer in three straight starts. Seattle had cooled off considerably at the plate before yesterday's explosion. During the six-game losing streak, all of which was at home, they had scored a total of 15 runs. Angels starter Pena has a 1.05 ERA in two home starts. Play UNDER Seattle-LA Angels AAA |
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04-19-19 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Royals-Yankees The surprising thing about last night's game between the Royals and Yankees was who won. The Royals punched a ticket at +182 on the money line, winning 6-1 here at Yankee Stadium. New York continues to struggle as their record is 8-10, although having a positive run differential says they've played better than you might think. What was not surprising about last night's game is that it stayed Under the total. The Yankees last five games have all stayed Under. For the Royals, that streak is four straight. Expect tonight's game to be another low scoring affair. The Yankees are averaging only 3.8 runs per game at home. We mentioned that in another Under play we had on them earlier this week (against Boston). The Royals are scoring even less on the road (3.4 runs/game) while batting .218. All three Jake Junis starts have gone Over this year, but it's critical to note two of them did not see more than nine total runs scored. CC Sabathia pitched better than anyone could have imagined in his only start. He held the White Sox scoreless for five frames while allowing just one hit. Play UNDER Royals-Yankees AAA |
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04-18-19 | Blue Jays v. Twins -172 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -172 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on MINNESOTA Minnesota finally broke through with a win in this series, beating Toronto yesterday by a count of 4-1. Monday had seen them lose 5-3 (thanks to the bullpen blowing a 3-1 lead in the 8th inning) and then Tuesday was a one-run loss. So you could say that the Twins were due yesterday and sure enough they came through. The teams finish out the four-game set today with a pitching matchup of Clay Buchholz vs. Michael Pineda. We think it's fair to still be concerned about a Blue Jays lineup that is batting only .215 this season. The Twins are 3-0 in starts made by Pineda so far with him delivering a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Buchholz has pitched just once, delivering Toronto a huge upset (at +190) against Tampa Bay. The Jays nearly wasted his effort as they were scoreless until the ninth when they struck for three runs. This being a day game would seem to favor the home team. Minnesota is already 6-2 in day games this season while Toronto is just 4-5. Twins earn a split of the series. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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04-17-19 | Giants v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER San Francisco-Washington The Giants are one of the weakest teams offensively in either league. They rank dead last in OPS and are bottom three in both runs scored and team batting average. So selecting the Under when they take the field seems only natural. We really like the idea of doing so tonight as they actually scored seven times last night, which matched a season high for them. In more than half of their games (11 of 19), the Giants have been held to three runs or less. Washington knows that feeling as well. They've been held to exactly three runs in four straight games. The Giants shocking hit 3 HR's last night off Stephen Strasburg, matching the total # of HR's hit from the previous six games combined. Look for the power surge to be short-lived, however, as they go up against Jeremy Hellickson, who threw six shutout innings at Philadelphia exactly one week ago. Hellickson also has a history of success when facing San Francisco. The Under is 16-3 in his last 19 starts. History has not been kind to Giants starter Jeff Samardzija when facing the Nationals, but he has pitched well in 2019 (1.62 ERA in three starts) and is being backed by a bullpen that entered yesterday's game with a 1.77 ERA. Play UNDER San Francisco-Washington AAA |
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04-17-19 | Indians v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Cleveland-Seattle My, oh my, has Seattle hit the skids. It's now five losses in a row. Can't say that we're surprised considering they couldn't possibly continue the torrid pace they set at the plate to start the year. They have actually homered in every game this season, but they're getting little else, at least recently. The last four games have seen the Mariners score a grand total of 9 runs. Meanwhile, Cleveland hasn't had much offense all season. Not that they've needed much in this series, but 10 runs scored in two games is actually a lot for the Indians. They are averaging just 3.6 runs/game with a team batting average of .207. They are bottom four not only in team batting average, but also in OPS. Carlos Carrasco has not pitched well on the road so far, turning in two pretty dreadful showings. But we expect Carrasco to resemble the pitcher of the last few seasons today. Pitching for Seattle will be Erik Swanson, who is starting for the first time at the big league level. While he's worked in relief previously, Swanson is still an unknown to the Cleveland hitters, so that's an advantage for the pitcher. Take our word for it - this is going to be a low scoring game. Play UNDER Cleveland-Seattle AAA |
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04-17-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Red Sox-Yankees Are the Red Sox actually BAD? By the numbers, the answer would be a resounding "yes." Last night's loss dropped them to 6-12 on the season. It's not just that they are losing though. They are routinely getting crushed. The Yankees beat them 8-0 Tuesday, which drops the Red Sox season run differential to -40. Only Miami, who isn't even trying this year, has been outscored by more runs. The culprit for Boston has been awful pitching as they've given up the most runs. But a once mighty lineup isn't scoring anywhere close to the same rate as last season. Take the last two games. They've scored just ONE run. The team is hitting just .229 this season. Yes, both of tonight's starting pitchers have not been good. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has a 3-0 team start record, but both his ERA (8.40) and WHIP (1.867) aren't good. The same holds true for J.A. Happ of the Yankees as he has an 8.76 ERA and 1.946 WHIP. But despite these gaudy numbers, we expect tonight's game to go Under. Boston just isn't doing much scoring while the Yankees are only averaging 4.0 runs/game at home. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 games here. This would have been an appropriate total last season, not this season. Play UNDER Red Sox-Yankees AAA |
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04-16-19 | Reds v. Dodgers -169 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LOS ANGELES A curious thing happened last year when the Dodgers played the Reds. They lost six of the seven games. Given that the Dodgers won 92 games and the Reds just 67, those head to head results made little sense. So with LA having dropped six of seven overall going into last night, you can bet they were extra motivated and sure enough they came away with a 4-3 victory. Now it wasn't easy as they won in the bottom of the ninth via a Joc Pederson home run. But look for that to have a carry over type effect into Tuesday when the Dodgers sent Kenta Maeda to the mound. Maeda has already been the beneficiary of the NL's top scoring offense with the Dodgers scoring 28 runs in his first two starts. He was not at his best last week in St. Louis, but a return home should do him some good as will facing this anemic Reds lineup that is hitting only .204 on the road. Cincy has topped five runs in a game only one time and has been been held to three or less eight times. Tyler Mahle has done his best in two previous starts, but the team has scored just two runs total for him. Dodgers win here. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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04-15-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -132 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE St. Louis faces a tall order having to go from Mexico to Miller Park in Milwaukee in a 24-hour span. Awaiting them will be a Brewers club that is already 3-1 against the Cards this year. That series was also played here in Milwaukee. Now we went against the Brewers (to great success) Sunday as they went down 7-1 out in Los Angeles. But that should not cloud the fact that the Brewers won the first two games of that series. The Dodgers were desperate yesterday (had lost six in a row), which is why we went so big on them. Both of tonight's starters will be making their second start of the year against the respective opponents and each hopes the second time around goes better than the first. For Milwaukee, Peralta allowed four runs in three innings to St. Louis in a 9-5 loss on 3.29. The following day, Hudson gave up three home runs in 4 1/3 innings as the Cardinals lost 4-2. Milwaukee is a REALLY good home team. That's confirmed by a 43-15 WL record when priced between -125 and -175 on the money line the last three seasons. Play MILWAUKEE AAA |
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04-15-19 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 11 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Boston In celebration of the Boston Marathon, we expect plenty of runs to be scored in this early start Monday. This is the finale of a four-game set that started Friday. Boston has won 2 of 3, including 4-0 on Sunday. But in terms of runs allowed this season, these teams are the two worst. They're both 6-10, something that Red Sox could not possibly have expected. It was a 9-5 loss Saturday. But Boston is a huge favorite here as they'll go up against Dan Straily, who struggled mightily in his first start of the year. He gave up five runs in 3 1/3 IP and allowed two home runs. Yesterday's game may have gone Under, but Baltimore is still 11-5 Over in all games while Boston is 10-5-1. The Red Sox go with Hector Velazquez, who may not be expected to go long considering he went just three innings in his only other start. Going into yesterday, the Red Sox were giving up 6.5 runs per game. They were averaging 5.7 themselves. Play OVER Baltimore-Boston AAA |
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04-14-19 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARIZONA Arizona hopes to avoid what would be a 4-game sweep, at home no less, here vs. San Diego. They have Zack Greinke on the mound at what looks to be an incredibly cheap price. Note all three losses in this series have been by one run. Part of the reason Greinke is so cheap Sunday is he hasn't been that effective so far this year. A 7.16 ERA is not what you'd expect to see from him after three starts, but that's where he's at. However, Greinke is still feeling the effects of a very poor first start. He's been better in the last two, one of which was against the Padres. He had a 10-0 strikeout to walk ratio over six innings, holding SD to just three runs. San Diego has been one of Grienke's favorite opponents in his career as he's 12-2 against them lifetime with a 2.29 ERA in 23 starts. Greinke even homered TWICE in that last start vs. San Diego. One again, he'll be opposed by Eric Lauer, who has struggled some in his last two starts, giving up 9 runs in 11 innings and three home runs. We just don't see the Padres being able to finish off the sweep here. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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04-14-19 | Brewers v. Dodgers -137 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on the DODGERS The Dodgers are reeling right now, having lost six straight. They were swept out in St. Louis to start the week and now are on the verge of suffering the same fate at the hands of Milwaukee, this time at home. But fear not fans of Dodger Blue, we believe you're team is going to check back into the win column today, led by Ross Stripling, who has pitched better than his 0-1 record shows. Speaking of better than their record, the Dodgers are +16 in runs scored vs. allowed (a NL best), despite being only 8-8. On the other hand Milwaukee has managed to go 10-5 despite giving up the same number of runs that they have scored. Only the Mariners, who are off to a record-setting start, have scored more runs this year than the Dodgers. And remember LA doesn't have a DH in its lineup. Look for a lineup averaging 6.8 runs per game at Chavez Ravine to get to Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin, who they know well from his time in Colorado and Arizona. Even though he allowed only three runs in 6 1/3 innings his last start, Chacin still took the loss as he issued more walks (3) and gave up more home runs (2) than he had strikeouts (1). Play LA DODGERS AAA |
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04-13-19 | Tigers v. Twins -176 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on MINNESOTA We like the Twins in this spot quite a bit coming off a postponement on Friday. This will be just the second series so far at Target Field and when priced at -125 or higher, the home team is usually a safe bet here. Minny's record the last three seasons in that range is 45-25. They are 13-4 when -175 or higher. Overall, this has been a good home team with a 91-72 record here since the start of the 2017 season. The Twins also have Michael Pineda going. In two starts, he's allowed just two runs and five hits. That's a 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Facing a Tigers team that's averaging just 1.7 runs per game on the road so far should be "easy pickings" for Pineda. Detroit is actually 8-5, but we wouldn't advise taking them too seriously at this point as they've faced a lot of "light-hitting" teams and sweeping Kansas City really isn't impressive. We look for the Twins to score plenty against Tyson Ross, who gave up two homers and four walks in his only prior start on the road. Play MINNESOTA AAA |