Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-14-18 | Pirates -130 v. Twins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -130 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Pittsburgh Pirates. We ultimately think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (9-8, 3.63 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Tuesday. Taillon hasn’t allowed more than three runs since May 22nd, posting a 3.18 ERA over his last 73.2 innings. The home side goes with Jake Odorizzi (4-7, 4.50) who gave up two runs off four hits with two walks over four innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Wednesday. Note that he’s been especially poor at home this season as well by going 3-3 with a 5.13 ERA. We like Taillon to easily out-duel the erratic Odorizzi. Lay the price, play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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08-13-18 | Diamondbacks -165 v. Rangers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -165 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks won large in Cincinnati yesterday afternoon and we think the hard-hitting visiting side is lined up for another night of big production at the plate on Monday as well. And that’s because Arizona’s prolific line-up will face Rangers’ veteran Bartolo Colon (6-10, 5.18 ERA) who in his last start became the all time latin born wins leader by holding Seattle to four runs off eight hits while striking out one over seven innings. With that milestone under his belt, we’re expecting a predictable letdown here. Note as well that Colon is a poor 3-4 with a 5.95 ERA at home this season anyways. The visitors counter with Zack Greinke (12-7, 2.89) who gave up one run off three hits and four walks while striking out four over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday. Over his last five starts Greinke has posted a tiny 1.26 ERA (note that he’s 7-4 with a 3.52 ERA on the road and he has a massive 152:29 K:BB on the season.) This one has blowout written all over it. Play on Greinke and the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-12-18 | Nationals -140 v. Cubs | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Washington Nationals. Washington smashed Chicago 9-4 yesterday afternoon and we think the Nats will win big again here with their ace on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Max Scherzer (15-5, 2.28 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings against Atlanta on Tuesday, striking out six and walking none in the eventual no-decision. To go along with his sharp ERA, note that Scherzer also sports an elite 0.90 WHIP (also note that he’s 8-3 with a 2.00 ERA on the road this season.) The home side goes with Cole Hamels (7-9, 4.38) who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over Kansas City on Monday. Since coming over from Texas, Hamels has now allowed only one earned run, but clearly the veteran faces his stiffest test yet for his new team. We look for Hamels to take a step back here against the superior competition, while we expect Scherzer to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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08-12-18 | Mets -155 v. Marlins | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 9* BIG TIGER on the New York Mets. We think that Noah Syndergaard is the correct call here as we expect the visitors to bounce back after yesterday’s 4-3 setback with what we feel to be the superior hurler on the mound. Syndergaard (7-2, 3.17 ERA) earned a win over the Reds despite giving up four runs and striking out six over 6.1 innings on Monday. The hard-throwing right-hander now has 93 strikeouts over 88 innings and note that he’s 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA on the road. The home side god with Wei-Yin Chen (4-8, 5.48) who gave up no runs off one hit over 5.2 innings in a victory over St. Louis. Chen though has struggled this season to a 1.43 WHIP and poor 66:36 K:BB over 88.2 innings. Note as well that the METS are 31-16 (+8.4 units) in their last 47 as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while the Marlins are just 21-32 (-1.6 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. Lay the price with confidence, play on New York. AAA Sports |
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08-11-18 | Phillies -189 v. Padres | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Phillies. We like the Phillies to bounce back after last night’s 2-0 defeat, while everything points to a letdown here for the Friars after back-to-back victories. The visitors hand the ball to ace Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.37 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out two over six innings in a no-decision to Miami on Sunday. Nola has been a machine this year, not allowing more than four runs in a start since June 17th and he’s gone 4-1 in that span. To go along with his impressive ERA, he also owns an elite 0.99 WHIP and 144:40 K:BB over 148 innings. The home side goes with Walker Lockett (0-2, 9.28) who gave up five runs over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Saturday. Over 10.2 innings in the big leagues the rookie has been shelled for 11 runs off 17 hits. Note that Philadelphia is still 50-38 (+11.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while San Diego is just 34-47 (-2.6 units) against right-handed starters. We’re banking on a blowout, so lay the price with confidence. Play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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08-10-18 | Pirates v. Giants -119 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the San Francisco Giants. Neither starters has been great, but the Giants 32-24 overall at home and 12-8 (+1.2 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Pittsburgh is just 26-27 on the road, including just 13-19 against southpaws. All things being equal, we think that Derek Holland could be a much bigger favorite vs. the erratic Trevor Williams. Great price, play on the GIANTS. NOTE PITCHING CHANGE: The Pirates are dropping Williams and going with Clay Holmes instead. He was sent back to Triple-A last weekend, but he’s once again got the call here. He threw six scoreless last Saturday to beat the Brewers. The skies the limit for Holmes and he’s done well in his limited time, but we think he’s been thrown to the wolves in this one and we expect Holland to take full advantage. PLAY STILL VALID. AAA Sports |
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08-10-18 | Indians -141 v. White Sox | 0-1 | Loss | -141 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 9* BIG TIGER on the Cleveland Indians. We like the hard-hitting visiting side to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Cleveland goes with Shane Bieber (6-2, 4.58 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off seven hits with one walks while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. He’s struck out seven in back-to-back outings, giving up five runs over 12 frames in that span. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 3.90 ERA on the road as well. The home side goes with Carlos Rodon (3-3, 2.94) who gave up one run and five walks over six innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Saturday. Note that Cleveland is 89-58 against southpaws the last three seasons, while Chicago is just 33-53 against right-handed starts this year. This line could/should easily be a lot larger in our opinion. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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08-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 105 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the UNDER Diamondbacks/Reds. A couple of red hot hurlers go head-to-head in this one and all signs point to a lower-scoring UNDER. The visitors go with Clay Buchholz (5-1, 2.68 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out eight in a win over the Giants on Saturday. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs over his last four starts, all victories. Note that Buchholz is 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA on the road. The home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani (5-3, 4.98) who gave up one run off six hits over seven innings in a win over the Nationals on Saturday. We look for these starters to build off their latest efforts and we expect this total to ultimately stay well UNDER the number at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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08-09-18 | Red Sox -155 v. Blue Jays | 5-8 | Loss | -155 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox. No upsets here, as we expect Rick Porcello to get the better of his younger counterpart. Porcello (14-4, 3.84 ERA) who comes in off a dominant outing against the Yanks on Friday, allowing one run off one hit while striking out nine in a complete-game effort. Porcello has been far from perfect this season, but note that he’s been nearly unbeatable on the road so far by going 8-1 with a 3.14 ERA. The home side goes with Ryan Borucki (1-2, 2.30) who earned his first career victory in Seattle on Friday, giving up one off four hits over eight innings. Borucki has been fantastic over three starts, but the 24 year old now faces his toughest test of his career in facing the Red Sox’ big bats. Note as well that Boston is 6-1 in its last seven as a road dog in the -150 to -175 range. Lay the price, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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08-08-18 | Dodgers -155 v. A's | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -155 | 32 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the LA Dodgers. Mike Fiers has been excellent over the last month or so for Detroit and just the other day he was traded to Oakland. He draws a tough first matchup out of the gates though and we think he’ll predictably stumble. The visitors go with ace Clayton Kershaw (5-5, 2.55 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off five hits with two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Thursday. Kershaw is starting to return to form, as he’d generate 15 swinging strikes with 67 of his 98 total pitches going for strikes as well. Kershaw has now posted six straight quality starts, a stretch in which he’s gone 4-1 with 35 strikeouts. Fiers (7-6, 3.48) posted a 2.10 ERA over six starts before the trade, but as mentioned off the top, we think “nerves” are going to get the veteran in this spot. And that leaves the door wide open for Kershaw and the DODGERS to comfortably sneak through to grab another victory. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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08-08-18 | Padres v. Brewers -188 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 30 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG TIGER on the Milwaukee Brewers. We had a play on the Brewers yesterday and they fell 11-5. It’s payback time on Wednesday. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Kennedy (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who makes his big league debut after posing a 10-0, 2.72 ERA record over 89.1 innings in Triple-A. The home side goes with Jhoulys Chacin (10-4, 3.89) who comes in off an outing to forget on Thursday, giving up nine runs off five hits over 4.1 innings. Despite this “dud,” Chacin still owns a sharp 1.22 WHIP per 132 innings; note as well that he owns a 3.46 ERA at home this year. Note that San Diego is just 32-46 (-5.1 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Milwaukee is 51-36 (+14.6 units) against right-handed starters. The skies are the limit Kennedy, but we think he’ll stumble in this difficult venue against the revenge-minded and humbled BREWERS. Lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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08-08-18 | Pirates v. Rockies -122 | 4-3 | Loss | -122 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Colorado Rockies. The Pirates smashed the Rockies 10-2 yesterday, but we think the home side will bounce back here. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (3-5, 4.40 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off seven hits and four walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Cardinals on Friday. Over his last 16.1 innings of work Archer has now allowed ten earned runs. The home side goes with German Marquez (9-8, 4.70) who struck out nine and walked two in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Friday, giving up two runs over seven innings in the unfortunate no-decision. Marquez owns a sharp 129:43 K:BB and while he’s struggled at home at times (Coors Field), we still think he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart this afternoon. Note as well that Pittsburgh is a horrible 27-33 (-2.4 units) this season against teams with winning records, while Colorado is 34-25 (+11.6 units) this year against clubs with winning records. All things considered, we feel we’re getting great value here. Play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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08-07-18 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -167 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -167 | 31 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Arizona Diamondbacks. No upsets in this. The Phillies go with Nick Pivetta (6-9, 4.75 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits in a no-decision to the Fish on Thursday. Pivetta has struggled against the better hitting clubs though this year and he’s been brutal on the road with the 2-4, 5.63 ERA record to this point. The home side goes with ace ZacK Greinke (12-6, 2.96 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits while striking out five over six innings in a loss to San Francisco on Thursday. Greinke has been a beast this year overall though, especially at home with the 5-2, 2.44 ERA record. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-07-18 | Padres v. Brewers -180 | 11-5 | Loss | -180 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the Milwaukee Brewers. We think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound and at the plate absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to Clayton Richard (7-10, 4.99 ERA) who over his past seven starts has posted a brutal 7.05 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. The home side goes with Chase Anderson (7-7, 3.65) who gave up two runs off three hits with two walks while striking out six over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Dodgers on Wednesday. While his strikeouts numbers aren’t anything to write home about, Anderson’s solid 3.65 ERA and 1.15 WHIP make him the correct call in this matchup. We’re banking on Anderson easily getting the better of Richard. Lay the price, play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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08-07-18 | Yankees -182 v. White Sox | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the New York Yankees. No upset here on Tuesday night as we look for CC Sabthia to easily get the better of his younger counterpart. Sabathia (6-4, 3.59 ERA) gave up two runs over three innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Thursday. It wasn’t his best outing, but the veteran has to be feeling confident he can bounce back here as he’s already a solid 5-3 with a 3.74 ERA in all night contests. The home side goes with Reynaldo Lopez (4-9, 4.47) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Thursday. Previous to that though he’d given up 18 runs, including eight home runs over three starts. We like Sabathia to continue his strong season and we look for Lopez to take a predictable step-back here against the Yanks’ high-powered line-up. Lay the price, play on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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08-07-18 | Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 4-3 | Win | 105 | 30 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Yanks/White Sox. CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.59 ERA) gave up two runs over three innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Thursday for New York. It wasn’t his best outing, but the veteran has to be feeling confident he can bounce back here as he’s already a solid 5-3 with a 3.74 ERA in all night contests. The home side goes with Reynaldo Lopez (4-9, 4.47) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Thursday. Recent form shown by both of these starters points to a classic “duel” on Tuesday night. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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08-07-18 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Cards/Marlins. This play is based primarily around the dominance of Cards’ pitcher Miles Mikolas and the ineptitude of Miami at the plate in general. Mikolas (11-3, 2.75 ERA) is for legit, most recently going seven strong innings, giving up two runs while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over Colorado on Thursday. To go along with his sharp ERA, note that he also sports an elite 1.08 WHIP and solid 97:25 K:BB over 137.1 innings of work. We have a hard time seeing many runs scored in this one, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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08-06-18 | Astros -140 v. Giants | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 9* BIG TIGER on the Houston Astros. We like the defending champs to find a way to get the job done in the opener of this inter-league series. The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (12-2, 2.90 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with one walk while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over Seattle on Tuesday. Morton comes in with a sharp 4-1, 2.92 ERA on the road, while going 9-1 with a 2.84 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side goes with Derek Rodriguez (5-1, 2.59) who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the toothless Padres on Tuesday. The rookie’s been solid overall this year, but note that the Giants are a poor 2-7 in their last nine as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. Great value, play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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08-06-18 | Twins v. Indians -183 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 6* ASSASSIN on the Cleveland Indians. We like the home side to find a way to get the job done in the opener of this three-game series. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Gibson (5-8, 3.47 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits in a setback to Cleveland on Tuesday, striking out six and walking three over six innings. For the most part Gibson has been solid this year, we simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The home side counters with Trevor Bauer (10-6, 2.34) who gave up two runs off four hits in a victory over Minnesota on Tuesday. Over six July starts he went 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA. Note as well that Bauer is 5-1 with a 2.02 ERA at home this season. Gibson’s been decent this season, but Bauer has been on an entirely different level. We like Bauer to come in focused and to find a way to out-duel his counterpart. Lay the price, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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08-06-18 | Reds v. Mets -164 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New York Mets. We think that Noah Syndergaard is well worth the price in this one. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Homer Bailey (1-8, 5.87 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits with one walk over eight innings in a loss to Detroit on Tuesday. Bailey has admittedly looked decent over his last two starts, but note that he’s still a brutal 1-3 with a 5.13 ERA on the road and just 1-5 with a 6.06 ERA in all “night” contests this season. Syndergaard (6-2, 2.98) gave up three runs with four strikes over seven innings in a loss to Washington on Wednesday. It was his first start back from a short stint on the DL and he looked sharp overall. Syndergaard will now be looking to improve upon his strong 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 87:16 K:BB over 81.2 innings. Expect Bailey to take a predictable step back in this difficult venue; lay the price, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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08-05-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -150 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Seattle Mariners. The Jays conclude this series by sending Sam Gaviglio (2-4, 5.10 ERA) to the hill. He most recent gave up five runs off eight his over 2.2 innings in a loss to Oakland on tuesday. Over 24.2 July innings Gaviglio posted a 7.30 ERA; note that he’s 1-4 with an 8.78 ERA on the road. The home side goes with Mike Leake (8-7, 4.16) who gave up three runs off eight hits with four strikeouts over six innings in a setback to the Astros on Tuesday. Despite the setback the veteran has now posted three straight quality efforts and note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.58 ERA in all “day” contests thus far. No upset here, as we look for Leake to easily get the better of his erratic counterpart. Lay the price, play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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08-05-18 | Royals v. Twins UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Royals/Twins. Two pitchers who have seen better days go head to head in this one. All things considered though, we think this number is a little high. The visitors go with Danny Duffy (7-9, 4.50 ERA) who went 5.2 scoreless and struck out seven in a win over the White Sox on Tuesday. Duffy has now posted three scoreless outings out of his last six starts and we think the veteran will carry that momentum over here. The home side hands the ball to Ervin Santana (0-0, 6.10) gave up four runs off six hits with two walks over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Monday. Santana has now given up seven runs over 10.1 innings since returning from injury and he’s going to benefit here tonight facing the Royals’ anemic line-up. We’re expecting these starters to fight into the latter frames and for this one to ultimately stay UNDER once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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08-05-18 | Reds v. Nationals -162 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. While he’s coming off a strong start, we think Luis Castillo will have a predictable letdown here for the Reds. Castillo (6-9, 4.98 ERA) went seven shutout innings in a win over Philadelphia on Sunday. Castillo has been consistently inconsistent all year though, especially on the road where he’s just 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA thus far. The home side goes with Tanner Roark (5-12, 4.37) who gave up one run over seven innings while striking out seven in a win over the Mets on Tuesday. Roark comes in on top form, having given up just one run over his last 15 innings of work and we expect the veteran to carry that momentum over here. Castillo’s road inconsistencies come back to haunt him again here after a couple of decent outings. Lay the price, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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08-05-18 | Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Braves/Mets. We think these starting pitchers will “get the hook” early, which will in turn result in a higher-scoring “slug-fest.” The visitors go with Julio Teheran (8-7, 4.46 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with four walks over five innings in a win over Miami on Monday. He’s now given up ten earned runs over his last 9.1 innings of work (note that he’s just 4-5 with a 5.13 ERA on the road as well.) The home side goes with Corey Oswalt (1-2, 5.27), who has been called up from the minors to replace the injured Steven Matz. It’s a tough spot start for Oswalt and we think he’ll stumble here against this high-powered Braves line-up. This number is just a little low, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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08-04-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -132 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think that Clay Buchholz will continue his strong overall campaign and find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd in this one. The visitors go with Andrew Suarez (4-6, 4.11 ERA) who gave up four runs off eight hits over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Sunday. Suarez has been serviceable in his rookie year, but quite pedestrian on the road (2-3, 4.96 ERA away from friendly confines.) Buchholz (4-1, 2.65) gave up three runs off six hits while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a victory over San Diego on Sunday. Buchholz hasn’t been perfect this season, but note that he’s 1-0 with a 3.78 ERA at home and 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA in all “night” contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-04-18 | White Sox v. Rays -162 | 2-1 | Loss | -162 | 28 h 60 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Tampa Bay Rays. Carlos Rodon has been pretty good so far this year for Chicago, but we still think he’ll falter here on the road against Rays’ ace Blake Snell. Rodon (3-3, 3.24 ERA) gave up two runs off five hits with a walk in a no-decision to the Jays on Sunday. As mentioned off the top, Rodon has been decent this season, we simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Snell (12-5, 2.27) comes off the ten-day Dl refreshed and ready to go after a bullpen session. To go along with his stellar ERA, Snell also sports an elite 1.07 WHIP and 134:47 K:BB (also note that he’s 6-1 with a 0.87 ERA at home.) We like Snell to out-duel Rodon; lay the price, play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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08-04-18 | Padres v. Cubs -196 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
This is 6* BIG TIGER on the Chicago Cubs. We expect Kyle Hendricks to easily get the better of his counterpart this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi (5-6, 3.74 ERA) who was shelled for five earned runs off six hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. Note that he’s now failed to pitch more than 5.1 innings in seven outings since returning from the DL in late June. Hendricks (7-9, 3.97) most recently gave up two earned runs off four hits with no walks while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over St. Louis on Sunday. Hendricks is finally starting to find his form, having struck out eight batters in three of his last five starts. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.13 ERA at home as well. All signs point to another long afternoon for Lucchesi. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CUBS. UPDATE: Luchessi is out and Walker Lockett is in. This play is STILL VALID! Lay the price as we’re expecting a rout from start to finish. AAA Sports |
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08-03-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -168 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -168 | 33 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Seattle Mariners. Ryan Borucki (0-2, 2.83 ERA) has been admirable in his limited time on the mound this year for Toronto, but we think he’ll stumble in this difficult late night West Coast contest. Borucki so far owns a 28:11 K:BB, but he goes up against the red hot Marco Gonzalez (12-5, 3.37) who earned a win over the Angels on Saturday after giving up two runs over six innings and striking out seven. He’s gone 5-0 over his last five and given up just 25 total walks over 125.2 innings of work this year. He’s also 5-1 with a 2.88 ERA at home as well. Lay the price with confidence as we expect a blowout from start to finish; play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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08-03-18 | Yankees -132 v. Red Sox | 1-4 | Loss | -132 | 30 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the New York Yankees. We like Luis Severino to out-duel Rick Porcello in this one. Severino (14-4, 2.94 ERA) will be extra motivated here after giving up six runs off eight hits with one walk and five strikeouts over 4.1 innings in a loss last weekend. Severino has admittedly stumbled of late, but note that he’s still 6-3 with a 3.59 ERA on the road and there’s no reason to over-react in our opinion. Porcello (13-4, 4.03) comes in off a poor outing as well, giving up four runs off five hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in a victory over Minnesota on Saturday. Porcello has admittedly been sharp of late, but note that he’s still sports a poor 5.10 ERA at home this season. Look for Severino to get back on track and for the YANKEES’ big bats to take care of the rest. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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08-03-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER in the Yankes/Red Sox. Severino (14-4, 2.94 ERA) will be extra motivated here after giving up six runs off eight hits with one walk and five strikeouts over 4.1 innings in a loss last weekend. Severino has admittedly stumbled of late, but note that he’s still 6-3 with a 3.59 ERA on the road and there’s no reason to over-react in our opinion. Porcello (13-4, 4.03) comes in off a poor outing as well, giving up four runs off five hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in a victory over Minnesota on Saturday. Porcello has been sharp of late overall though and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to bounce back in friendly confines. With these two competent starters battling deep, we look for this one to indeed fall UNDER once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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08-03-18 | Marlins v. Phillies -185 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Phillies. We think Vince Velasquez will carry over his recent momentum and find a way to get the job done at home on Friday night. The visitors go with Jose Urena (3-10, 4.40 ERA) who went six scoreless in a win over Washington on Sunday. Urena’s performed better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but note that he’s still just 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA on the road. Velasquez (7-8, 4.02) who gave up two runs while striking out four over five innings against Cincinnati on Saturday. Over his last 27 innings of work Velasquez has now allowed only five runs while striking out 25 in that span. Expect this momentum to get carried over and lay the price with confidence. Play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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08-03-18 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Marlins/Phillies. The visitors go with Trevor Richards (3-5, 4.06 ERA) who went six scoreless in his last start. Richards has been decent of late, who over his last ten starts has struck out 47 batters spanning 51.2 innings of work. Velasquez (7-8, 4.02) gave up two runs while striking out four over five innings against Cincinnati on Saturday. Over his last 27 innings of work Velasquez has now allowed only five runs while striking out 25 in that span. We’re expecting these competent starters to battle deep and for this one total to fall UNDER once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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08-02-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -140 | 8-1 | Loss | -140 | 31 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Two wily veterans square off in this one, but home field advantage will prove to be the difference maker for Zack Greinke in our opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner (3-4, 3.06 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over eight innings in a loss to the Brewers on Friday. Previous to that though he’d been blasted by the A’s and exited only after four frames. Bumgarner has been solid overall this season, but note that he’s 3-2 with a 2.01 ERA at home, compared to 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA on the road. Greinke (12-5, 2.96) gave up one run off six hits over seven innings while striking out six in a win over San Diego on Friday. Greinke comes into this one sporting the tremendous 143:24 K:BB and note that he’s been awesome at one with a 5-1, 2.39 ERA record so far. Note as well that San Fran is just 32-38 (-4.9 units) this year in all “night” contests, while Arizona is 44-29 (+12.3 units) in all “night” contests. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-02-18 | Braves -145 v. Mets | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Atlanta Braves. We think this is a major mismatch on the mound and at the plate. The visitors give the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (7-7, 3.04 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits with three walks and eight strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Friday. Foltynewicz remains competitive with this 3.04 ERA and 53:18 K:BB over 43.1 frames (note that he owns a 2.93 ERA on the road.) The home side goes with the erratic Jason Vargas (2-6, 8.36) who gave up two runs off three hits with three walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Pirates on Friday. It was his firs start since mid June and he’ll come into this Thursday night matchup with the brutal ERA to go along with a poor 1.79 WHIP and 35:17 K:BB over 42 innings. Note that Atlanta is 31-15 (+18.6 units) this year against the division, while New York is just 18-21 (-5.8 units) against divisional foes. All signs point to a blowout. Lay the price, play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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08-02-18 | Rockies v. Cardinals -140 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 9* BIG TIGER on the St. Louis Cardinals. We think that Miles Mikolas offers fantastic value in this matchup. The visitors go with Antonio Senzatela (4-3, 5.01 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits with four walks over 5.2 innings in a win over the A’s on Saturday. Over his last four starts spanning 24 innings of work he’s given up 11 earned runs; note that he’s just 1-3 with a 7.08 ERA on the road this year. Mikolas (11-3, 2.83) gave up two runs off six hits with one walk over six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Saturday. He’s now given up three or fewer runs in seven straight starts; note that he’s 5-3 with a 2.09 ERA at home as well. Additionally note that Colorado is just 14-22 (-8.9 units) in all “day” contests this season, while St. Louis is 24-20 (+1.4 units) in all day games. This line could/should easily be a lot larger in our opinion, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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08-01-18 | Reds v. Tigers -113 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Detroit Tigers. We had a big play on the Tigers in their extra-inning 2-1 win in the opener of this inter-league series and we think the home side will find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano (6-8, 5.04 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings while striking out five in a victory over St. Louis on Wednesday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Romano this year though, especially on the road where he’s only 1-4 with a 5.98 ERA. The home side counters with Mike Fiers (7-6, 3.54) who gave up seven hits and three walks while striking out six over seven shutout innings in a win over the hard-hitting Red Sox on Saturday. Fiers has now posted five straight quality efforts, a stretch in which he’s twirled a 1.62 ERA with 24 strikeouts and six walks over 33.1 innings. Fiers has been far from perfect and his peripherals suggest that this streak of hotness isn’t going to last forever, but note that he’s been fantastic at home this year overall by going 5-2 with a 2.85 ERA thus far. We’re banking on Fiers doing enough to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-31-18 | Reds v. Tigers -115 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Detroit Tigers. Homer Bailey (1-7, 6.29 ERA) is coming off a decent outing for the Reds, but overall the veteran has been a disaster this season. We think he’ll make a predictable return to mediocrity tonight. He most recently gave up two runs over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to the Cardinals on Tuesday. Note though that Bailey is a horrible 1-4 with a 6.80 ERA in all “night” contests this season. The home side counters with Matt Boyd (5-9, 4.53) who gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over Kansas City on Wednesday. Boyd struggled down the stretch of the first half, but the extra time off has done him some good, as he comes in having posted a sharp 13:2 K:BB over 11 innings since. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.23 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season as well. We’re banking on Boyd’s consistency at home to be more than enough to secure the victory here against Bailey, who struggles with consistency from one outing to the next. Great price, play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-30-18 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -206 | 9-5 | Loss | -206 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We had a play on Arizona yesterday and it came away with the win in San Diego. The Diamondbacks have a big advantage on the mound tonight as well in our opinion in this inter-league contest and we look for them to make the most of it. The Rangers hand the ball to Martin Perez (2-4, 7.08 ERA) who actually comes in off a decent outing against the A’s on Wednesday, giving up one run off seven hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision. He’s been a bit better of late, but note that Perez still owns an unsightly 2.02 WHIP this season. The home side goes with Robbie Ray (3-2, 4.90) who also earned a no-decision in his last outing against the Cubs on Wednesday, giving up one run off four hits while striking out six over seven innings. Ray’s ERA is a disappointment, but his strikeout rates remain elite and we think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart in this inter-league format. Note as well that Texas is just 21-41 (-6.8 units) against teams with winning records, while Arizona is 33-18 (+12.6 units) against teams with losing records. No upsets here, lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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07-29-18 | Diamondbacks -107 v. Padres | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We had a play on Arizona on Saturday and we think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (3-1, 2.38 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits in a win over the Cubs on Tuesday, striking out five and walking over 6.2 innings of work. The veteran continues to exceed expectations with a 0.99 WHIP and 36:9 K:BB over 45.1 innings of work. The home side goes with Joey Lucchesi (5-5, 3.34) who gave up two runs off six hits with no walks over 5.1 innings in a win over the Mets on Monday. Lucchesi has been serviceable, but if he’s had one clear area of weakness, it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 1-2 with a 4.98 ERA. Note that Arizona is 32-18 (+11.6 units) this season against teams with losing records, while San Diego is 22-34 (-5 units) against clubs with winning records this year. We expect the DIAMONDBACKS to keep the foot on the gas in this one. AAA Sports |
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07-28-18 | Mariners v. Angels -123 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the LA Angels. Neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence, but Felix Hernandez has been exceptionally poor on the road for Seattle by posting a 6.65 ERA. Jaime Barria has struggled slightly over the last couple of weeks, but he’s been sharp in all “night” contests with a 3.56 ERA. We expect Hernandez to continue to struggle on the road and we look for Barria to get the better of his veteran counterpart. Lay the price, play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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07-28-18 | Diamondbacks -151 v. Padres | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think that Patrick Corbin and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger favorites. Corbin (7-4, 3.13 ERA) most recently went seven innings and gave up one run with no walks and nine strikeouts over the Cubs on Monday. He’d go on to throw 70 of his 98 pitches for strikes and he’s now posted a 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 over his last 15 trips to the mound. The home side sends Tyson Ross (6-8, 4.29) to the hill and he most recently gave up two runs off five hits with three walks over five innings in a win over Philadelphia last weekend. Ross has been hit or miss in July; note that he’s just 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA at home this season. Note that Arizona is 41-28 (+11.3 units) in all “night” contests this year, while San Diego is 29-45 (-7.9 units) in all “night” contests. We like Corbin to build off his last start and find a way to deliver the goods once the smoke clears at the end of the night. Lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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07-27-18 | Diamondbacks -175 v. Padres | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We’re not expecting any epic upsets here as we look for Diamondbacks’ veteran Zack Greinke to easily out duel his erratic counterpart. Greinke (11-5, 3.05 ERA) gave up one run off two hits over eight innings while also striking out 13 and walking only one in a win over Colorado on Sunday. Greinke’s ERA is very respectable, but his 1.06 WHIP and 137:24 K:BB have to be considered elite. The home side goes with Luis Perdomo (1-5, 6.99) who gave up three earned runs off five hits and a walk over 6.1 innings in a setback to Philadelphia on Sunday. You’d think that home field would be a benefit for Perdomo, but you’d be wrong; note that he’s 0-4 with an 11.29 ERA in San Diego this season. Additionally not that Arizona is 41-28 (+11.3 units) in all night games this year, while San Diego is just 29-45 (-7.9 units) in all night contests. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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07-27-18 | A's +110 v. Rockies | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 60 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the A’s. The A’s offer great value in a slight upset role here in our opinion. The visitors hand the ball to ace Sean Manaea (9-6, 3.38 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits while striking out five over 6.2 innings in what turned out to be a no-decision to San Francisco on Sunday. So far he has a respectable 88:24 K:BB and note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.36 ERA on the road this year. Kyle Freeland (8-6, 3.28) goes for the home side and he most recently gave up four runs off five hits wit three walks over five innings in a no-decision to Arizona on Saturday. Overall Freeland’s been great, but the red hot ATHLETICS continue their recent surge with another win in our opinion. AAA Sports |
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07-27-18 | Mets v. Pirates -169 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Pittsburgh Pirates. After yesterday’s 12-6 defeat, we like the home side to bounce back here. The visitors hand the ball to Jason Vargas (2-6, 8.60 ERA) who makes his return to the rotation after a stint on the DL. Previous to his injury he’d post the 8.60 ERA and give up 11 homers over 37.2 innings of work. Note that Vargas was particularly bad on the road as well with the 1-4, 10.96 ERA. The home side goes with Ivan Nova (6-6, 4.28 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out two over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Reds on Sunday. Nova has now posted a win in two of his last three starts, giving up a total of six runs over 17 innings to go alone with ten strikeouts. Note as well that Nova has been at his best at home with a sharp 2.52 ERA as well. Note as well that New York is just 20-32 (-10.4 unit) this year against right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh is 11-15 (-4.9 units) against left-handed starters. Lay the price with confidence, play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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07-26-18 | Royals +1.5 v. Yankees | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Kansas City Royals. While we don’t think that the outright win is out of the question, we’re going to recommend to grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance. The home side sends Jake Junis (5-10, 5.03 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits with six strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision to Minnesota on Saturday. It was his first start back from the DL and he’d throw 53 of his 77 pitches for strikes. Junis now looks rested/injury-free and we think he’ll return to the form which saw him throw quality outings in six of his first seven of the season, before tweaking his back. The home side goes with Sonny Gray (7-7, 5.34) who gave up three runs and three walks over 5.1 innings in what turned out to be a victory over the Mets in his first start back from the break. Gray is coming off back-to-back victories, but note that he’s still a terrible 3-3 with a 7.62 ERA at home this season. KC has looked better offensively over the last month, so we expect the hungry visiting side to keep this one competitive this evening. Play on the ROYALS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-25-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -135 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Chicago Cubs. We think that Jon Lester benefits greatly from the home field advantage in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (3-2, 5.37 ERA) who was rocked in his first start back from the break by the Rockies for five runs off eight hits over 5.1 innings on Friday. Over 11 starts Ray has the poor 5.37 ERA to go along with a poor 1.51 WHIP. Lester (12-3, 3.14) comes in off a poor effort as well, allowing eight runs to the Cards on Friday. It was his worst performance of the season, so we’re not hitting the panic button quite yet. Note that he’s 5-2 with a 3.12 ERA at home and 7-1 with a 3.40 ERA in all “day” contests. Note as well that Arizona is just 15-18 (-4.8 units) in all “day” contests, while Chicago is 31-18 (+4.2 units) in all day games. Great price, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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07-25-18 | Nationals v. Brewers -120 | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 9* RED DRAGON on the Milwaukee Brewers. We think that home field advantage will be significant in this matchup. The visitors go with Tanner Roark (3-12, 4.87 ERA) who closed the first half with a poor outing, giving up four runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Mets. Over his last three starts Roark has allowed 17 runs spanning 16 innings. The home side goes with Freddy Peralta (4-1, 2.65) who is getting called up from Low-A Wisconsin to make this start. Over seven big-league starts this year he’s posted the 2.65 ERA to go along with a tiny 0.96 WHIP, while also posting 50 strikeouts over 37.1 innings (he’s 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA at home as well.) Note that Washington is just 10-15 (-5.7 units) this year on the road when the money line in the game is set between +125 and -125, while Milwaukee is 12-3 (+7.6 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Great price, play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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07-24-18 | Nationals v. Brewers +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Brewers on the RUN-LINE. We like the Brewers to build off yesterday’s 6-1 victory. The visitors go with Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29 ERA) who put together a fantastic first half showing. So far he has a 1.05 WHOP and 49:12 K:BB over 63 innings. These numbers seem unsustainable to us though, considering the veteran was a poor 8-11 with a 5.43 ERA last year. Regression is imminent for Hellickson moving forward in our opinion. The home side goes with Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23) who was placed on the ten-day DL prior to the mid summer classic. He’s had extra time off and he’s ready to go in the second half; note that he’s 3-3 with a 2.55 ERA at home thus far. While the outright isn’t out of the question, we’ll ultimately lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on the BREWERS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-24-18 | Dodgers v. Phillies +1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Phillies on the RUN-LINE. We had a play on the Dodgers last night and feel a bit fortunate that they managed to gut out the victory. With their ace on the mound though, we look for the Phillies to fight back on Tuesday. The visitors hand the ball to ace Kenta Maeda (7-5, 3.12 ERA) who for the most part was solid for LA over the first half. Wrong place, wrong time for Maeda though here in our opinion. As note that Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.30 ERA) comes in having thrown five straight quality starts and 16 overall during the first half for the Phillies. Note that Nola has been “lights out” at home with an 8-0, 1.71 ERA as well. Lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on the PHILLIES on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-24-18 | Red Sox v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE “BIG TIGER” on the Baltimore Orioles. We had a play on Boston yesterday, but we think the home side will keep it competitive facing Drew Pomeranz tonight. Pomeranz (1-3, 6.81 ERA) returns for his first action since May 31st. He’s thrown six minor league re-hab starts, but clearly there’s going to be some rust to shake off at the MLB level. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA on the road. The home side goes with Yefry Ramirez (0-3. 3.09) who finished the first half with an unfortunate no-decision to Texas, going five scoreless while striking out seven. Over 23.1 innings he’s posted a very respectable 24:9 K:BB. While the outright isn’t out of the question in our opinion, we’re going to lay the pick em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in the end; play on the ORIOLES on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-23-18 | Pirates v. Indians -1.5 | 7-0 | Push | 0 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Indians on the RUN-LINE. This is a clear mismatch on the mound, one so large that we feel more than comfortable in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams (7-7, 4.36 ERA) who blanked Washington over five innings in his final outing before the mid summer classic. Williams though has just 71 strikeouts over 99 innings and he’s just 2-3 with a 4.79 ERA on the road this year. Corey Kluber (12-5, 2.76) gets the nod for the home side and he gave up six runs to the Yanks in his final start before the break. He’d go seven innings and strikeout nine though. Starts like that have truly been few and far between for Kluber this season though; note that he still owns the tiny 0.91 WHIP while posting an enormous 132 strikeouts over 133.2 innings. Note as well that he’s 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA at home. Lay the 1.5 runs, play on the INDIANS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-23-18 | Braves v. Marlins +1.5 | 12-1 | Loss | -135 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Marlins on the RUN-LINE. Atlanta pitcher Sean Newcomb has struggled over the last month and we expect further regression here. Newcomb (8-5, 3.51 ERA) posted a 9.75 ER with seven strikeouts and 12 walks over three July appearances. The home side goes with Jose Urena (2-9, 4.39) who has endured plenty of bad luck and poor run support this season. He hasn’t been perfect this season obviously, but he still sports a respectable 3.45 ERA in all “night” contests. We like Urena to out duel Newcomb at home and for the MARLINS to cover with extra RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-23-18 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 7 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Padres/Mets. We think these starting pitchers will duel deep and we look for this total to stay UNDER at the end of the night. The visitors go with Eric Lauer (5-6, 4.87 ERA) who entered the break off a “dud,” allowing five runs over two innings against the Cubs. Previous to that though Lauer had gone eight straight starts in which he’d given up three earned runs or fewer. With the extra time off, we’re expecting the right-hander to return to form. The home side hands the ball to Zack Wheeler (3-6, 4.44) who finished the first half with a win over the Nationals, allowing four runs and striking out seven over eight innings. Each starter catches a break here facing these anemic line-ups. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER. NOTE, LATE PITCHING CHANGE FOR METS: This play is STILL ACTIVE. New York goes with ace Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.68) whose start has been pushed to Monday following Sunday’s rainout. in his previous outing he went eight scoreless while striking out seven in an unfortunate no-decision to the Phillies. He comes in with a massive 149:30 K:BB over 123.1 innings of work. This play is STILL LIVE. DOUBLE NOTE, ANOTHER LATE CHANGE FOR PADRES: This play is STILL ACTIVE. Lauer is out and Lucchesi is now in. We still love this play. He comes in off the DL and a rough re-hab start, but he was one of the Friars strongest starters over the first half with a 3.34 ERA and 69:25 K:BB over 67.1 innings of work. This play is STILL LIVE. AAA Sports |
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07-23-18 | Red Sox -160 v. Orioles | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. This is a mismatch, both on the mound and at the plate. Rick Porcello (11-4, 4.13 ERA) allowed eight runs in his final start before the mid-summer classic against the Jays. It was his worst outing of the year as he was clearly caught “looking ahead.” Porcello though is 7-1 with a 3.43 ERA on the road, so there’s no reason not to think that he won’t bounce back strong here with the extra rest. The home side goes with Kevin Gausman (4-7, 4.33) who gave up five runs over five innings (off 12 hits) to the Phillies in final start before the break. He’s been more hit that miss this year and he enters with a pedestrian, 0-2, 4.58 ERA record on the road. Note as well that the Red Sox are 54-20 (+23.7 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Baltimore is just 15-50 (-33.6 units) against right-handed pitching this season. Lay the price, play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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07-23-18 | Dodgers -141 v. Phillies | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the LA Dodgers. These two pitchers are very even. Ross Stripling is 8-2 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, while Zach Eflin is 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA. Eflin landed on the ten-day DL prior to the mid-summer Classic, but he’s been cleared to go here. Note that LA is 184-126 the L3 seasons against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is just 137-181 against right-handed starters the L3 years. We like the Dodgers to build off their big win over the Pirates yesterday and for the Phillies to come in dog tired after their double-header. Lay the price, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-22-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -179 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST). After yesterday’s 6-5 extra-innings loss, we’re expecting the home side to bounce back in a big way this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (3-2, 5.34) who has one great start of the Rockies and one horrible one. The latest was a dud against the Mariners, giving up six runs over six innings before the all star game. Interestingly he’s 2-0 with a 3.52 ERA at Coors Field, compared to 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA on the road. The home side goes with ace Zack Greinke (10-5, 3.18) who struck out seven over 7.2 scoreless frames of work in a victory over Atlanta in his final start before the break. To go along with his respectable ERA, Greinke also sports an elite 1.15 WHIP and 9.2 K/9; note that he’s also 5-2 with a 2.41 ERA at home. We look for Greinke to come in focused after the break and to easily out duel Senzatela. Lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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07-21-18 | Giants v. A's -116 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Oakland Athletics. We like the A’s to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-1 defeat. The visitors go with Madison Bumgarner (3-3, 2.90 ERA) who earned a win over St. Louis in his final start before the break, despite giving up four runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out six over 5.1 innings on Sunday. Bumgarner’s peripherals (2.6 K/BB and 3.77 FIP) point to further regression. The home side goes with Trevor Cahill (1-2, 3.10) who for the most part has looked decent in his limited time for Oakland and he’s been especially good at home by going 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA. We like Cahill to continue his strong play at home and we expect Bumgarner to take another step back. Play the A’S. AAA Sports |
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07-21-18 | Twins -130 v. Royals | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 9* BIG TIGER on the Minnesota Twins. We like the Twins to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-5 defeat. The visitors go with Lance Lynn (7-7, 5.22 ERA) who closed the first half with a couple of decent outings. Lynn has been hit or miss this year, but note that he’s 5-3 with a 3.99 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side goes with the erratic Jake Junis (5-10, 5.13) who returns from the DL to make this outing. After a sharp coupe of starts to open the season, Junis would give up 28 earned runs, including 12 dingers, over his last 27 innings of work. We think he continues to slide down the proverbial crapper and we look for the revenge minded TWINS to take advantage. AAA Sports |
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07-21-18 | Mets +216 v. Yankees | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the New York Mets. We like the Mets to build off yesterday’s 7-5 victory. The visitors go with Steven Matz (4-7, 3.38) who gave up one run over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to Tampa Bay in his last start before the break. Note that Matz has been much better on the road (3-2, 2.25 ERA) than at home this season (1-5, 4.18). The home side goes with the erratic Sonny Gray (6-7, 5.46) who stumbled in consecutive outings before the break. Gray has been horrible all season, especially at home where he’s just 2-3 with an 8.25 ERA. As devastating at the Yanks’ line-up is, there’s no way that Gray should be this big a favorite in this matchup. Fantastic value, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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07-20-18 | Indians -178 v. Rangers | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians (8:05 EST). We believe that this line could in fact be much larger considering the two starters going in this one. The visitors go with Trevor Bauer (8-6, 2.24 ERA) who would give up two runs off seven hits with eight strikeouts over eight innings in a victory over Kansas City in his final start before the break; note that he owns a sharp 7-3, 2.01 ERA in all “night” contests this year. The home side goes with Martin Perez (2-4, 7.67) who returned before the break to make a start off the DL, but who for the most part overall has been a disaster this season; note that he’s 1-1 with a 10.00 ERA at home. No letdown here from Bauer. Lay the price, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-20-18 | Marlins v. Rays -158 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -158 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST). We think that Nate Eovaldi and the home side will dominate their impotent inter-league opponent tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (3-4, 4.29 ERA) who has been pretty mediocre this season compared to last for the Marlins. Straily is so far a decent 1-3 with a 3.67 ERA on the road. Eovaldi (3-4, 4.59) finished the first half with back to back strong showings; note as well that he’s an elite 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA at home this season. Miami’s been impotent on the road this year, which doesn’t bode well facing the flame-thrower Eovaldi. Lay the price, play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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07-15-18 | Cubs -166 v. Padres | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs smashed the Padres 11-6 yesterday and we’re expecting a similar lop-sided destruction here as well. And that’s because the visitors send the red hot Jon Lester to the hill, while the home side goes with the erratic Eric Lauer. Lester (11-2, 2.45 ERA) most recently allowed four runs over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to Cincinnati on Sunday. It wasn’t Lester’s best outing obviously, but note that he’d allowed just six earned runs over his previous 37 innings of work; also note that he’s 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA in all “day” contests. Lauer (5-5, 4.40) gave up one run over five innings in a victory over Arizona on Thursday. He’s been hit or miss this year; note that he’s 3-3 with a 4.58 ERA at home thus far. Note as well that Chicago is 16-6 (+7.3 units) against left-handed starters this year, while San Diego is just 10-20 (-8.1 units) against left-handed starters. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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07-15-18 | Reds v. Cardinals -156 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the St. Louis Cardinals. After yesterday’s defeat, the Cardinals fired their head coach. St. Louis is waffling right around .500 and it’s desperate for a victory today. In what is a clear pitching mismatch, we like the hungry home side to indeed find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Anthony DeScalfani (4-1, 4.43 ERA) who gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over Cleveland on Monday. Previous to that though he’d been shelled for nine earned runs spanning just 11.2 innings of work. The home side goes with Miles Mikolas (10-3, 2.65) who gave up two runs off seven hits and four walks with three strikeouts over six innings in a win over the D-Backs on Wednesday. Note that it was the first time all season that he’s walked more than two opponents. Note as well that Mikolas owns a tiny 1.65 ERA at home and that he’s 5-0 with a 2.86 ERA in all “day” contests. Despite its recent struggles, note that the Cards are still 25-17 (+5.9 units) against the division, while the Reds are just 16-27 (-7.7 units) against the division. All things considered, we feel a fair price. Lay it, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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07-14-18 | Cubs -164 v. Padres | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Chicago Cubs. We like the Cubs to build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory. The visitors go with Kyle Hendricks (5-8, 3.93 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and a walk with eight strikeouts over 8.1 innings against San Francisco on Monday. Hendricks has struggled of late, but clearly this last start was a huge step in the right direction. The home side goes with Luis Perdomo (1-3, 7.09) who gave up six runs off ten hits with three walks over seven innings in a setback to the Dodgers on Monday. Of the ten hits he gave up, five were doubles; and note that Perdomo has been particularly horrible at home by going 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA so far this season. Recent form suggests that Hendricks is in fact being under-valued in this spot. Lay the price, play on the Cubs. AAA Sports |
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07-14-18 | Angels +175 v. Dodgers | 5-4 | Win | 175 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Angels. We think the Angels offer good value to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-2 defeat in the massive underdog role on Saturday night. The visitors go with Andrew Heaney (5-6, 3.84 ERA) who gave up three runs off three hits with three walks to go along with ten strikeouts over seven innings in a 4-3 win over the Dodgers last Sunday. Over his last 14 innings of work he’s now posted 20 strikeouts and we think the hard-throwing southpaw will carry that momentum over here. The home side counters with Alex Wood (5-5, 3.88) who gave up three runs over six innings throwing opposite Heaney last week in what turned out to be a no-decision. Wood has been solid of late, but we still think that he’s vastly over-priced in this spot. We look for Heaney to out duel Wood. Great value, play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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07-14-18 | Phillies -168 v. Marlins | 0-2 | Loss | -168 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Aaron Nola (12-2, 2.27 ERA) is the difference here. We don’t expect a letdown from the hard-throwing right-hander, who comes in “locked in” right now. Nola most recently went seven scoreless against New York on Monday, while striking out ten. In his last start before the All-Star break, there’s no reason to expect a letdown, note that he’s 4-2 with a 2.85 ERA on the road. The home side goes with Trevor Richards (2-5, 5.24) who gave up two runs off four hits with seven walks over 3.2 innings in a no-decision to Washington on Sunday. Richards for the most part has been a disaster this year and note that the Marlins are just 21-34 (-2.4 units) against teams with winning records this year. The Phillies on the other hand are 22-14 (+8.2 units) against teams with losing records this season. Nola finishes the first half with another gem, lay the price, play on PHILADELPHIA. AAA Sports |
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07-13-18 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -200 | 13-7 | Loss | -200 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox. Boston held on for a 6-4 win yesterday and we expect it to find a way to get the job done here as well. The Jays go with Ryan Borucki (0-1, 2.25 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Yankees on Sunday. Borucki has been fantastic over his first three big league starts with 16 strikeouts over 20 innings total, but clearly he draws a tough matchup here in this difficult venue. The home side goes with the red hot Rick Porcello (11-3, 3.58) who gave up three runs off nine hits and one walk over seven innings in a victory over the Royals on Sunday, striking out nine. Porcello has been strong across the board this year and he comes in with the respectable 4-2, 3.78 ERA record at home. Note that Toronto is just 24-29 (-4.6 units) in all “night” games this year, while Boston 44-24 (+11.6 units) in all “night” contests. No upset here, look for Porcello to stay on track and for the hard-hitting RED SOX to build off yesterday’s win. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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07-13-18 | Brewers -110 v. Pirates | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Milwaukee Brewers. We like the Brewers to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-3 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (6-5, 2.79 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Atlanta on Sunday, allowing one earned run off seven hits while stricken gout four over six innings to earn the victory on Sunday. Guerra’s been far from perfect this year, but he comes in with a solid 3-2, 3.21 ERA on the road thus far. The Pirates go with Nick Kingham (3-4, 4.26) who broke a three outing losing streak by allowing one earned run over six innings over the Phillies on Sunday. In his previous start he’d be shelled for five earned runs over three innings. The rookie has been better at home than on the road this year, but he’s still just 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in all “night” contests this season. So note as well that Milwaukee is 38-18 (+20.2 units) in all “night” games, while Pittsburgh is just 25-30 (-7.3 units) in all “night” contests. Great value, play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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07-12-18 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -157 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox. JA Happ has completely fallen apart of late for the Jays and we think he’ll stumble again here. Happ (10-5, 4.44 ERA) most recently gave up six runs off four hits and six walks over 2.2 innings in a setback to the Yanks on Saturday. In his previous start he was shelled for seven runs off ten hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to Detroit. Happ’s been better on the road than at home, but clearly he’s trending in the wrong direction right now. Boston goes with David Price (9-6, 4.44) who most recently allowed four runs off six hits over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Royals last weekend, also going on to strikeout nine and walking only one. Price has looked shaky over his last two starts as well, but he comes in with a solid 4-2, 3.63 ERA at home this season and we think he has the major advantage over his now struggling counterpart. Toronto is just 5-10 (-3.2 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Boston is 12-5 (+4 units0 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Lay the price with confidence, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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07-11-18 | Phillies v. Mets -149 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the New York Mets. We like the Mets to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. The Phillies go with the erratic Vince Velasquez (5-8, 4.69 ERA) who returns from a short stint on the DL after taking a come-backer off his forearm in his last start. Velasquez has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned this year; note that he’s just 2-7 with a 5.01 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side goes with ace Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.79) who received a no-decision against the Rays on Friday, giving up one run off four hits with eight strikeouts over eight innings. It was a tough luck loss, but deGrom has to be feeling confident here as he owns a minuscule 1.80 ERA at home and 1.74 ERA in all “night” contests. We’re banking on deGrom easily outdueling Velasquez. Lay the price, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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07-11-18 | Nationals -125 v. Pirates | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Washington Nationals. We like Washington to build off its 5-1 win yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (6-5, 3.76 ERA) who most recently allowed two runs off eight hits while striking out four over five innings against the Marlins on Friday, ultimately receiving a no-decision. Gonzalez owns the respectable ERA, to go along with a 1.47 WHIP and a 90:47 K:BB over 95.2 innings of work. The home side goes with Trevor Williams (6-7, 4.60) who was shelled for five runs off five hits over 2.1 innings in a loss to the Phillies on Friday. Over his last two starts Wiliams has given up nine runs off nine hits with four walks spanning just seven innings of work. Gonzalez hasn’t been perfect, but we think the southpaw can easily out duel his struggling counterpart. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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07-10-18 | Cardinals -175 v. White Sox | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the St. Louis Cardinals. Considering the talent gap on the mound, we absolutely believe that Miles Mikolas and the hard-hitting Cards could easily be much larger favs in this particular matchup. Mikolas (9-3, 2.63 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off seven hits with three strikeouts over six innings in a win over Arizona on Wednesday. Note that Mikolas is 5-0 with a 3.62 ERA on the road this season. The home side goes with the erratic Dylan Covey (3-4, 5.54) who most recently allowed six runs off five hits while striking out two over 3.2 innings against Cincinnati on Wednesday. Note that Covey has now given up at least four earned runs in four straight outings. As mentioned off the top, we feel that this line could easily be a lot larger considering the talent discrepancy on the hill. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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07-10-18 | Reds v. Indians -230 | 7-4 | Loss | -230 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians. We think this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano (5-8, 5.40 ERA) who earned a win over the White Sox on Wednesday despite allowing four runs off six hits while striking out six. He’s looked a bit better of late, but note the’s only completely six innings four times in 18 trips to the hill this year (also note that he’s just 1-4 with a 6.11 ERA on the road this season.) The home side counters with Trevor Bauer (8-6, 2.45) who gave up two runs off seven hits with a walk and eight strikeouts over 7.1 innings in a victory over Kansas City on Wednesday. Over his last 43.1 innings he’s struck out 59 and posted a 1.87 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in that span. Note that the Reds are just 15-36 (-6.4 units) in their last 51 as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range, while Cleveland is already 12-8 this year as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-09-18 | Royals v. Twins -198 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Minnesota Twins. The Royals lost 7-4 at home to the Red Sox, while the Twins clobbered the Orioles 10-1 at home yesterday afternoon. One of these starters has struggled with consistency this year, while the other has been at his best in front of the home town crowd. The visitors go with Danny Duffy (4-8, 5.19 ERA) who was most recently crushed for six runs off eight hits over six innings in a loss to the Indians on Tuesday. In seven of his 18 starts this year Duffy has allowed five or more runs and his 48 walks given up are the third-most allowed in the AL. The home side goes with ace Jose Berrios (8-7, 3.54), who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out three over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. Berrios though has to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s already an impressive 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA at home. Note as well that the Royals are just 12-17 (-3.6 units) this season against the division, while the Twins are 17-13 (+2.6 units) against the division. We look for Berrios to out duel Duffy and for the TWINS to build off yesterday’s big win. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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07-09-18 | Phillies -170 v. Mets | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Philadelphia Phillies. We’re going to lay the extra price on what we feel is the vastly superior pitcher. This is the second game of a double header. The visitors go with ace Aaron Nola (11-2, 2.41 ERA) who went seven innings and gave up one run off seven hits to go along with nine strikeouts in a win over the Orioles on Wednesday. Of his 16 trips to the hill this year, Nola has thrown a quality effort 14 times. While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he’s still 6-1 with a 1.94 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side goes with Corey Oswalt (0-1, 7.94) who gave up two runs off five hits while striking out two over four innings against Toronto on Wednesday. It was his second career start in the majors and he was held to 65 pitches. It was a decent outing, but note that he still owns a 5.32 ERA in Triple-A and a 7.94 ERA in the majors. Note as well that Philadelphia is already 19-11 (+8.2 units) against teams with losing records, while New York is 16-29 (-12.1 units) against teams with winning records. We absolutely believe that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger, play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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07-09-18 | Reds v. Indians -160 | 7-5 | Loss | -160 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 9* ART OF WAR on the Cleveland Indians. The Indians look to bounce back after Sunday’s 6-0 home defeat to the A’s, while the Reds look poised for another letdown here after falling 6-5 in extra innings at the Cubs yesterday afternoon. Cincinnati hands the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (3-1, 5.08 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits with one walk while striking out five over 5.1 innings against the White Sox on Tuesday, lucky to earn a no-decision for the sub-par effort. That’s back-to-back poor efforts now for DeSclafani, who is just 0-1 with a 7.02 ERA in all “night” contests thus far. The home side goes with Mike Clevinger (7-3, 3.11) who gave up three runs off eight hits while striking out five over six innings in a victory over these very Indians on Sunday. To go along with his highly respectable ERA, Clevinger also sports 99 strikeouts over 110 innings of work; note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.68 ERA at home to this point as well. Note as well that the Reds are just 22-28 (-1.8 units) this year against clubs with winning records, while the Tribe are 31-14 (+6.9 units) against teams with losing records this year. All things considered, we absolutely believe that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-08-18 | Reds v. Cubs -145 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. We think the Cubs will build off yesterday’s come-from-behind victory. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Castillo (5-8, 5.53 ERA) who gave up one run over 6.2 innings in a win over the White Sox on Monday, allowing six hits with no walks. Previous to this gem though Castillo had allowed three earned runs or more in six straight. Note that Castillo is just 2-5 with a 6.70 ERA on the road. The Cubs go with Jon Lester (11-2, 2.25) who comes in off an outing to forget on Sunday, allowing four runs (just two earned though) and three walks while also striking out five. While it wasn’t his best start, Lester would make up for it by hitting a 3-run home run himself. Castillo has to be feeling confident here as well as he’s 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA at home this season. Note as well that the Reds are just 18-23 on the road, while the Cubs are 26-15 at home this year. Play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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07-07-18 | White Sox +272 v. Astros | Top | 6-12 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Chicago White Sox. We think that James Shields is flying “under the radar” here, while Charlie Morton is over-achieving. Clearly Houston has the advantage at the plate, but we think that Shields has much more than just a punchers chance in this one. Shields (3-9, 4.12 ERA) most recently gave up one run off four hits and four walks while striking out three over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Monday. Shields has now pitched four quality starts over his last five outings. Morton (10-2, 2.55) has been unbelievable this year and he comes in off another decent outing against Tampa Bay on Sunday, giving up two runs off six hits over 6.2 innings. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Morton, so we won’t bother. We simply feel he’s over-priced now and we think that Shields and the WHITE SOX are going to step up and deliver the goods here. AAA Sports |
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07-06-18 | Rockies +1.5 v. Mariners | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 6* ART OF THE GAME on the ROCKIES on the RUN-LINE. Colorado had the night off on Thursday, while Seattle would close out its series with the Angels with a 4-1 win last night. While we wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset here, in a contest which we envision being decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to lay the steeper price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Rockies hand the ball to German Marquez (6-8, 5.14 ERA) who gave up one run over eight innings in a win over the Dodgers on Saturday, allowing two hits and striking out nine. Marquez has been solid away from Coors this year with a 3.07 ERA. The home side goes with Felix Hernandez (8-6, 5.11) who gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a win over the Royals on Saturday. Hernandez has been better at home than on the road, but we think his inconsistency from one game to the next comes back to haunt “The King” again here. We think Seattle comes in complacent after last night’s win and we expect Marquez to easily match his erratic counterpart tonight. Play on the ROCKIES on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-05-18 | Marlins v. Nationals -181 | 12-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. The Nationals fell hard to the Red Sox this week, but we think they’ll bounce back in a big way on Thursday night and take out their frustrations on the lowly Marlins. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Pablo Lopez (1-0, 3.00 ERA) who picked up a victory in his MLB debut over the Mets on Saturday, allowing two runs off six hits over six innings. Clearly the skies the limit for Lopez, but after that gem of an effort, we believe regression is predictable in the nation’s capital tonight. The home side goes with Jeremy Hellickson (2-1, 2.63) who gave up three runs while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Saturday. It was likely his worst effort of the season to this point, but his peripherals (7.1 K/9, 1.5 BB/9) both point to sustainability for now; note that he owns a 1.65 ERA at home. After a poor showing against Boston, we expect the NATIONALS to dominate from start to finish in this one. Lay the price with confidence, play on the home side. AAA Sports |
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07-04-18 | Astros -147 v. Rangers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Houston Astros. Lance McCullers was scheduled to start this game for the Astros, but the shift to Gerrit Cole does nothing to effect our big play tonight. Cole (9-2, 2.50 ERA) gave up three runs (one earned) off five hits and three walks with five strikeouts over six innings in a tough luck loss to Tampa Bay on Friday. It was his first loss since April 23rd, so clearly there’s no reason to over-react. Cole still hasn’t given up more than four runs in any start all season long. Note that he’s 6-1 with a 2.14 ERA on the road as well. The Rangers hand the ball to Mike Minor (6-4, 4.64) who comes in off a strong outing himself, going seven shutout innings in against San Diego on Wednesday. Minor had a decent June performance, lowering his ERA over a full point and posting an 18:5 K:BB, but note that the Rangers are still just 18-30 (-2.2 units) against teams with winning records, while HOUSTON is 27-11 against clubs with losing records this season. No upset here, as we think that the Astros have a major advantage, both on the mound and at the plate. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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07-04-18 | Red Sox -128 v. Nationals | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Boston Red Sox. Eduardo Rodriguez (9-3, 4.11 ERA), gets the nod for the Red Sox and he’ll be looking to build off his team’s 11-4 victory yesterday. Rodriguez most recently gave up five runs off seven hits with two walks over six innings in a loss to the Yankees on Friday. Rodriguez hasn’t looked his best of late, but he has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back here as he’s 4-1 with a 4.14 ERA on the road and an even better 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA in all “day” contests. The Nationals hand the ball to Erick Fedde (1-3, 6.00) who gave up five runs off eight hits and three walks over five innings while also striking out three. Stephen Strasburg’s return to the starting rotation is imminent, just as Fedde’s move back to the bullpen is as well (note that he’s 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA at home and 0-2 with a 4.63 ERA in all day games.) Note as well that Boston is now 6-1 (+4.5 units) in all inter-league games, while Washington is just 9-10 (-4.6 units) in all inter-league games (also just 8-16 against southpaws, while Boston is 45-19, +16 units) against right-handed starters. We’re banking on Rodriguez to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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07-03-18 | Astros -168 v. Rangers | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros (8:05 EST). Dallas Keuchel was the best pitcher in the World and then his team traded for Justin Verlander 3/4’s of the way through the season and Keuchel’s never really been the same since. Verlander of course would go on to turn his career around completely and become arguably the best pitcher in the league for a time, while to this day Keuchel has a struggled. Keuchel (4-8, 4.22 ERA) most recently gave up six runs off seven hits over 5.1 innings in a fortunate no-decition to Toronto on Wednesday. Keuchel’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned this season, but he certainly has the track record and pedigree to get his season back on track. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.54 ERA on the road this year. The Rangers hand the ball to Austin Bibens-Dirkx (1-1, 3.57) who made his fourth start of the year against the Padres on Tuesday and he’d go five scoreless in a no-decision. The 33 year old has looked sharp in his limited time, but we think his early blistering numbers are unsustainable and we’re expecting regression immediately. Keuchel has been anything but reliable this year, but we expect the southpaw to come in focused at least. And in our opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the defending champs. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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07-02-18 | Giants v. Rockies +110 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 110 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Colorado Rockies. The Giants come to town satisfied after a 9-6 win in Arizona last night. Colorado on the other hand is looking to get back on track in front of the home town crowd after falling 6-4 in LA yesterday afternoon. The visitors go with Madison Bumgarner (1-2, 2.51 ERA) who went seven shutout innings in a no-decision against these very Rockies on Wednesday. Bumgarner has looked sharp over his last two starts, but Coors Field is the great equalizer when it comes to starting pitchers and suffice it to say, we’re expecting some predictable regression from the veteran southpaw tonight. Colorado goes with Kyle Freeland (7-6, 3.29) who earned a no-decision against these very Giants throwing opposite Bumgarner, going seven shutout innings himself, with four strikeouts and one walk. Freeland has been solid across the board this year, but note that he’s been at his best at home with a 4-2, 2.95 ERA record. We look for Freeland to continue his progression and we expect Bumgarner to take a step back in this difficult venue. Play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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07-01-18 | Angels v. Orioles -125 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Baltimore Orioles. We like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-2 loss. The visitors go with Deck McGuire (0-0, 6.08) who will make a spot start here in place of the injured John Lamb. McGuire logged four innings after Lamb left with injury in his last start and he’d give up three runs in the mediocre effort. McGuire’s peripherals do not look sharp, with a 4.33 ERA and 5.58 xFIP over 27 big league innings. The home side goes with Kevin Gausman (3-6, 4.20) who gave up one run off five hits with four strikes over six innings in a no-decision against Seattle on Tuesday. Over his last seven starts he’s gone 0-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.33 WHIP spanning 23.1 innings of work. We look for the ORIOLES to finally give Gausman some support today in this favorable matchup; lay the price. AAA Sports |
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06-30-18 | Red Sox -145 v. Yankees | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR is on the Boston Red Sox. We think that Chris Sale and the revenge minded Red Sox offer great value in this spot after yesterday’s 8-1 series opening defeat. Sale (7-4, 2.56 ERA) went seven scoreless and struck out 13 and walking one in a win over Seattle on Sunday. 71 of his 93 pitches would go for strikes and he’s now struck out 43 over his last 28 innings of work. Note that Sale has been sharp on the road this year by going 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA. The home side sends Sonny Gray (5-5, 4.93) to the hill and he most recently allowed four runs off six hits over 6.2 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Gray didn’t pitch horribly in that one, but note that he’s still a horrible 2-2 with a 7.22 ERA at home this season. We think SALE can out-duel his erratic counterpart. Lay the price, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-30-18 | Tigers +160 v. Blue Jays | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Tigers. We had a play on the Tigers last night and while that underdog play came up short, we think the visitors will bounce back on Saturday afternoon. Detroit goes with Matt Boyd (4-6, 4.15 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Indians on Sunday, allowing six runs while striking out five over three innings. That’s back-to-back duds for Boyd, which is the first time in a long time that’s happened. Boyd had a strong Spring training and that carried over for most of the season, but clearly he’s taken a step back of late. While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he still owns a respectable 3.99 ERA in all “day” contests. The home side goes with Sam Gaviglio (2-2, 3.98) who gave up three earned runs off five hits over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Sunday. The struggling right-hander hasn’t reached the fifth inning since June 6th and he’s also been shelled for ten earned runs over 12 innings in that span. For the most part Gaviglio has been solid this year for the Jays, but note that Toronto is just 9-21 (-12.6 units) against southpaws this year. We think Boyd can out duel his inconsistent counterpart and we look for the revenge minded TIGERS to do the rest. AAA Sports |