Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss +7 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Jan Game of the Month is on Sou Miss at 11:30 a.m. ET.
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Cincinnati at 3:00 ET.
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon +3 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Rose Bowl play is on Oregon at 5:00 ET.
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech -2 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Va Tech at 12::00 ET.
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan v. Western Kentucky -3 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Western Kentucky at 12:30 ET.
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +2.5 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 292 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Ohio St at 8:00 ET.
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12-28-19 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 9-33 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener (Camping World) is on Iowa St at 12:00 ET.
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12-27-19 | USC v. Iowa -2 | Top | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Holiday Bowl Blowout is on Iowa at 8:00 ET.
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12-27-19 | North Carolina -4.5 v. Temple | Top | 55-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener is on North Carolina at 12:00 ET.
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7 | Top | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 380 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on La Tech at 4:00 ET.
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12-21-19 | Florida International v. Arkansas State -2.5 | Top | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Bowl Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 5:30 ET.
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* SEC Championship Game Showdown is on Georgia at 4:00 ET.
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12-07-19 | UAB v. Florida Atlantic -8 | Top | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Championship Saturday Game of the Month is on FAU at 1:30 ET.
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11-30-19 | Tulane v. SMU -3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* November Game of the Month is on SMU at 4:00 ET.
Dual-threat QB McMillan has 1,987 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs, plus leads the team in rushing with 654 yards (4.8 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as SIX more RBs chip in between 161 and 517 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 13th by averaging 252.3 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG but the "stop unit" is allowing 34.8 PPG on the road and is a big reason Tulane is 1-4 away from home.
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11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Wisconsin at 3:30 ET. Wisconsin opened the 2019 season ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll. The Badgers won their first six games by outscoring their opponents by an amazing 255-29 margin. However, Wisconsin visited Illinois on Oct 19 and as a four-TD road favorite got beat 24-23. The Badgers then lost at Ohio St 38-7 the following Saturday, leaving the team's hope of winning the Big Ten West bleak. The reason being that Minnesota, coming off a a 7-6 season, got off to a blazing start. PJ Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016 and his Golden Gophers would win their first NINE games of 2019, the school's first 9-0 start since 1904. Minnesota earned a No. 7 ranking in the Nov 10 AP poll (highest since ranking 5th back in the 1962 season) plus rose to No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings. However, the Badgers lost a tough one 23-19 at Iowa on Nov 17. Minnesota bounced back with a 38-22 win at Northwestern last Saturday but with Wisconsin winning THREE in a row, the Badgers come to Minneapolis 6-2, one game behind the 7-1 Gophers " I don't think you could write a better story at least from a college football world perspective," P.J. Fleck told reporters. "College Gameday, the Twin Cities and Big Ten championship on the line in the longest-standing rivalry in college football."Wisconsin cruised past Purdue 45-24last Saturday to set up this winner-take-all clash. QB Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and two TDS to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. RB Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a TD in the win over the Boilermakers to finish with 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his career. Taylor is a superstar, rushing for 1,685 yards on 6.5 YPA with 18 TDs. Coan is not a star but he's completing 72.7% with 15 TDs and just four INTs in 249 attempts. The Wisconsin D allowed just 4.8 PPG through its first six games but in going 3-2 its last five, has allowed 25.8 PPG. The overall season stats look great (14.4 PPG ranks 8th and 270.3 YPG allowed ranks 7th) but Wisconsin knows its D needs a "big-time" effort in this one Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan showed no ill effects from the concussion he suffered against Iowa, throwing for 211 yards and four TD passes in the win over Northwestern to give him 26 on the season. That breaks the program's single-season passing TD record previously held by Adam Weber (24). Morgan is completing 67.9% and has thrown just five INTs in 252 attempts. Tyler Johnson hauled in seven passes for 125 yards and a TD, while Rashod Bateman added seven catches for 78 yards and three TDs against the Wildcats to become the first WR duo in program history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in the same season with 1,025 and 1,023 respectively. Johnson has 61 catches and Bateman 51, with both hauling in 10 TDs. RB Rodney Smith is no Taylor (few, if any, are) but he's over 1,000 yards with 1,063 for 5.3 YPA and eight TDs. Minnesota 's defense can't match the numbers put up by Wisconsin's D (few, if any, can) but allowing 21.0 PPG (28th) on 300.1 YPG (10th) is pretty 'sweet.' So here we are. Minnesota/Wisconsin is the most-played rivalry in the FBS, with 128 meetings. The winner of the 129th game not only receives Paul Bunyan's Axe but also earns a spot in the Big Ten championship game Dec 7 against Ohio St. How great is it that the series is tied, 60-60-8 (you couldn't make that up!). Kudos to Fleck and this year's Minnesota team, which is vying to complete an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1954. Yes, this series is tied (see above) but when Gophers beat the Badgers 37-15 last season (in Madison as a 12-point underdog), it was Minnesota's first win against Wisconsin since 2003 (Badgers had won 14 in a row!). I had Minnesota in its home upset of nSt and won against them when the Gophers lost at Iowa. Wisconsin's season looked 'dead in the water' after its back-to-back losses in late October but a win here and it's off to Lucas Oil Stadium to face Ohio St next Saturday. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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11-30-19 | Florida International v. Marshall -7 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Marshall at 12:00 ET.
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11-29-19 | Cincinnati v. Memphis -11.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss +3 v. Mississippi State | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 55 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout (Egg Bowl) is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | California +3 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Cal at 4:00 ET. California opened the 2019 season 4-0 and was ranked 15th in the AP poll when it lost a Friday night home game on Sep 27 to Arizoan St, 24-17. That defeat began a four-game slide and Cal will enter Saturday gamer with Stanford just 5-5 (2-5 Pac-12), one win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Stanford comes in 4-6 (3-5 Pac-12), having lost as back-to-back games to Colorado and Washington State.The two rivals meet Saturday in Palo Alto for the 122nd edition of the "Big Game." Stanford leads the series 64-46-11 but more importantly, has won the last NINE games in this series. The "Big Game" is the oldest college football rivalry in the West. Cal's D was superb early on in its 4-0 start, allowing just 17.3 PPG. Even after losing FIVE of six, the Bears enters this contest allowing a modest 22.7 PPG (37th) on 387.5 YPG (61st). The problem has been an offense averaging only 18.9 PPG (117th) on 304.2 YPG (122nd). QB Chase Garbers returned last week after missing the previous four games with a right shoulder injury but was 4-for-10 for 33 yards before leaving the game in the second quarter with an undisclosed injury. If Garbers is unavailable Saturday, the Bears will turn to junior Devon Modster, who has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions while appearing in six games this season. Speaking of QBs, Stanford will be without the injured K.J. Costello again this Saturday. Davis Mills started in place of Costello last week and completed 33-of-50 passes for 504 yards with three TDs and a pair of interceptions, but the Cardinal lost 49-22 at Washington St. The Cardinal defense allowed 624 total yards to the Cougars and is allowing 28.9 PPG (76th) on 429.1 YPG (94th). David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but it's all come "crashing down" in 2019. The injury-depleted Cardinal have started a total of 37 different players this season and the team's semi-depleted secondary is allowing 281.4 YPG (119th). I'm calling for Cal to end a frustrating NINE-game-losing skid in the "Big Game!” Good luck...Larry |
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11-23-19 | UCLA +13.5 v. USC | Top | 35-52 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* play is on UCLA at 3:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | Texas +6 v. Baylor | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -113 | 72 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | SMU v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 117 h 42 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* "signature" 36-Club play is on Navy at 3:30 ET. It's been quite a year for the American Athletic Conference in 2019, as in both the Nov 3 and Nov 10 AP polls, the league had FOUR schools represented in the top-25. Three of those schools remain in the most recent AP poll (Nov 17) entering Saturday games. Cincy checks in at No. 17, Memphis at No. 18 and SMU at No. 21 (all are 9-1). The AAC school that dropped out this past Sunday was Navy, which was manhandled 52-20 last Saturday at Notre Dame. The good news for 7-2 Navy (5-1 AAC-West) is that it has a chance to quickly bounce-back from that crushing loss, as it hosts SMU on Saturday. 9-1 SMU (5-1 AAC-West) squandered a chance to take command of the AAC West when it lost 54-48 at Memphis on Nov 2 (Memphis is 5-1 in the West, like Navy and SMU). The Mustangs survived 59-51 at home over ECU on Nov 9, keeping its chances of advancing to the AAC championship game intact and had last weekend off, giving them an extra week of prep time. In less than two seasons, Sonny Dykes has done what his seven predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU got off to an 8-0 start, its best since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982. QB Shane Buechele (Texas transfer) has thrown for 3,195 yards with 28 TDs against eight interceptions this season. WR James Proche, named a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist as the nation's top wide receiver, established season highs with 14 catches for 167 yards and two scores against the Pirates to extend his touchdown streak to nine games and eclipse 1,000 yards for the second straight year (he has 88 catches and 12 TDs on the season). While SMU's passing game gets most of the credit for the team's 45.1 PPG average (6th), RB Xavier Jones has rushed for 1,063 yards (5.4 YPA) and 18 of his school-record 20 TDs have come on the ground (note: he has scored in every game!). Of concern for SMU is its defense, which is allowing 32.7 PPG (104th). More on SMU's D in a bit. Ken Niumatalolo took over at Navy when Paul Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and he led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I expected a bounce-back season for Navy in 2019 and it has "backed me up" by going 7-2. Navy entered its game at Notre Dame last Saturday at 7-1 and ranked 21st but the Midshipmen got 'rolled' (see above). Navy was averaging a nation-best 357.9 yards rushing but was limited to 281 against Notre Dame. That included 117 by QB Malcolm Perry (his sixth straight game reaching the century mark) but Perry fumbled three times and was replaced in the third quarter. One of the biggest turnarounds for Navy this season has been a defense that was allowing 310.6 YPG on the season, before yielding nearly that many in the first half last week (Navy allowed 410 for the game). However, even after that poor effort, Navy enters this contest still No. 1 in rushing ( 349.7 YPG / 5.9 YPA) and averaging 37.9 PPG (13th). The Navy D comes in allowing a modest 21.9 PPG (34th) on 321.9 YPG (22nd). Here's the situation facing BOTH teams. There's a three-way tie for first in the AAC-West but like SMU, Navy has also lost to Memphis. The bottom line is, this is basically an elimination game for both schools, if they want to keep their West Division and conference title hopes alive. What Sonny Dykes has accomplished at SMU is impressive but how can one trust SMU on the road vs a quality team like Navy (note: Midshipmen are 5-0 SU at home this season, averaging 39.4 PPG)? Look at SMU's last five games. Except for an impressive 45-21 home blowout over Temple on Oct 19, SMU has allowed 37, 31, 54 and 51 points. Yes, SMU lost just ONE of those games but that was to Memphis, when the Mustangs allowed 514 yards and the six-point margin was aided by two 4th Q TDs (and a two-point conversion), after SMU had fallen behind by 21 points. The three wins in that stretch came 43-37 at home over Tulsa in three OTs (Tulsa ran up 500 yards). SMU allowed 510 yards at Houston in a 34-31 win and then allowed a WHOPPING 644 yards in its 59-51 win at home over ECU, as a 27-point favorite last Saturday. Let me remind all that Tulsa , Houston and ECU are each 3-7 on the season, while going a combined 2-16 in AAC games.I STRONGLY believe Navy is the superior team and will prevail here comfortably, putting the Notre Dame 'disaster' in the rear-view mirror. Good luck..Larry |
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11-23-19 | Central Florida v. Tulane +6 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Tulane at 12:00 ET.
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +11 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Baylor at 7:30 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is 9-0 (ranked 12th in the AP and 13th in the CFP) and at 6-0 in league play is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 (but just barely!). The Bears survived a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite and then needed three OTs to edge TCU 29-23 last Saturday in Fort Worth. The Oklahoma Sooners (No. 10 in both the AP& CFP) come to Waco on Saturday at 8-1 (5-1 in the Big 12), off their only loss of 2019 on Oct 26 (48-41 at Kansas St) and then following a bye, a 42-41 home win over Iowa St on Nov 9. Oklahoma nearly blew a 21-point 4th-quarter lead, needing to intercept a two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining to hold on for the one-point win. 42-41 victory over Iowa State. Even through back-to-back 'squeakers' (the loss to Kansas State and last week's 42-41 win over Iowa State), Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma offense has continued to put up big numbers. Jalen Hurts is completing 73.3% for 2,742 yards with 24 TDs and just four INTs. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 219.7, which is better than the mark of Oklahoma's Heisman-winning Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield in the past two seasons.He is also OU's leading rusher, gaining 869 yards (7.0 YPA / 15 TDs), to lead a running game averaging 249.4 YPG (12th) on 6.9 YPA. WR CeeDee Lamb was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after tying a school record with his fifth career game of at least 160 yards receiving, finishing with 167 to go along with two TDs against the Cyclones. He has 44 catches (22.3 YPC / 13 TDs), while fellow WR Rambo has 27 catches (21.3 YPC / 5 TDs). The Bears scored all three of their TDs vs the Horned Frogs after regulation and has been led all season by the dramatically-improved play of QB Charlie Brewer (67.3% / 2,339 yards with 16 TDs and 4 INTs). WR Mims leads the receiving corps with 44 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), and made a pair of athletic grabs in last Saturday's OT win. The running game is solid (188.2 YPG (41st) on 5.0 YPA. Two players split the workload, Lovett (532 YR / 6.3 YPSA) and Hasty (461 RY / 5.8 YPA). Baylor is averaging 35.3 PPG (27th) but the Bears can't match up with Oklahoma, which ranks 2nd in the nation at 48.4 PPG. However, Baylor's D is the best in the Big 12, allowing just 19.0 PPG (17th nationally) on 337.4 YPG (31st). Sure Baylor's had numerous "close calls" this season but the Bears remain unbeaten and are tied with Minnesota for the nation's third-longest winning streak (11 in a row). Baylor has outscored five opponents at home by an average of 38.4-to-19.2 PPG. The Bears will surely NOT be intimidated by Oklahoma, after watching the Sooners their last two games. Baylor's D will be the best one Hurts has seen this year (note: Baylor owns a Big 12-best 29 sacks this season) and the offense is 'licking its chops' about facing an Oklahoma defense allowing 44.5 points on 451.5 YPG its last two. Matt Rhule has thrived in the role of an underdog as of late, going 9-2 ATS his last 11 (82%). I'm taking the points in what just may be a 'dry run' for a rematch in the Big 12 championship game (No. 1 plays No. 2). Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Minnesota v. Iowa -3 | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Iowa at 4:00 ET. Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016, completing an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season. Minnesota's 31-26 win at home last Saturday over previously unbeaten Penn St gave the Gophers to their first 9-0 start since 1904. Minnesota earned a No. 7 ranking in last Sunday's AP poll (highest since ranking 5th back in the 1962 season) plus jumped from No. 17 to No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings. 6-0 Minnesota leads 4-2 Wisconsin by TWO games in the Big Ten West and can take a big step towards their first Big Ten West Division title by winning in Iowa City on Saturday against 6-3 Iowa (3-3 in Big Ten). Iowa's hopes of winning the West Division are on 'life support' after dropping a 24-22 decision last Saturday at Wisconsin, missing a chance to tie the game on a two-point conversion try late in the fourth quarter. The Hawkeyes are THREE games behind the Golden Gophers with three contests remaining. P.J. Fleck 'surfed' the locker room after what non-believers would call an upset over Penn State last week, then asked his players to grab a hand. "Whatever you believe in, whoever you believe in, this is what sport does, bring so many people together," Fleck told the group after his 18-second ride. There is NO doubt he's a motivator! QB Tanner Morgan had one of the best games of his career against the Nittany Lions, completing 18-of-20 passes for 339 yards and three TDs, improving to 13-2 as the starting QB. He's completing 67.9% on the season with 21 TDs and just four INTs. He has two quality targets in Johnson (50 catches / 14.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and Bateman (38 catches / 22.3 YPC / 7 TDs) plus RB Smith leads a running game averaging 195.2 YPG (38th) with 940 yards on 5.5 YPA with 7 TDs. Minnesota is averaging 37.6 PPG (15th), while allowing 20.7 PPG (27th). It's been a "close but no cigar" season for Iowa in this year's Big Ten, as the Hawkeyes have lost THREE games all against ranked teams. Iowa lost 10-3 at then-No. 18 Michigan, 17-12 at home to then-No. 10 Penn St and 24-22 just last Saturday at then-No. 13 Wisconsin. QB Nate Stanley (60.7% with 12 TDs and 5 INTs) threw for 208 yards and two TDs in the loss to Wisconsin, overtaking Ricky Stanzi (7,377) for third place on the program's all-time passing yards list with 7,509. He leads an offense that averages just 24.1 YPG (98th) and one which can't match Minnesota's skill players at RB or receiver. However, Iowa's defense is allowing only 11.7 PPG (4th) on 289.3 YPG (11th). I like Fleck but this is not Kirk Ferentz's first 'rodeo.' He's in his 21st year at Iowa and after going 4-19 in 1999 and 2000, he's led the Hawkeyes to 16 bowls in 18 seasons (make that 17 of 19, here in 2019). I called Minnesota's upset against Penn St last Saturday but let's look closer at its entire "body of work." Here's Minnesota's first four games. It opened with a 28-21 home win over SD St, which averages just 20.8 PPG. Minnesota needed OT to win at Fresno St 38-35 (Bulldogs are a 4-5 team) plus beat Ga Southern only 35-32 as a 17-point favorite. Minnesota then won 38-31 at Purdue (Boilermakers are just 4-6 in 2019). Yes, Minnesota comes into this contest having outscored its last five conference opponents 199-67 but note that Penn St almost 'caught' Minnesota late in last Saturday's game, with the Minnesota D allowing 518 yards. How did Penn St's offense fair at Iowa vs the Hawkeyes? The Nittany Lions scored just 17 points (they average 37.1 PPG) and gained only 294 yards (they average 434.8 YPG). Iowa has won FOUR straight vs Minnesota and note that THREE of those wins came over bowl-bound Minnesota teams. Minnesota has won 11 consecutive games (tied for the third-longest streak in the nation with Baylor) but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has captured EIGHT straight Floyd of Rosedale trophies at Kinnick Stadium! Make that NINE in a row! Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Tulane v. Temple +6 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave opened 2019 at 5-1 but lost their final two Octobers games. Tulane beat Tulsa 38-26 on Nov 2 and comes into this contest at Temple off a bye at 6-3. One win in its last three would give Tulane a second straight winning season but the Green Wave face a very good Temple team here, then are home to 7-3 UCF and at 9-1 SMU (not an easy stretch). Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses followed, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF. However, Temple earned its sixth victory a week ago last Thursday, in a 17-7 win at USF. Tulane QB Justin McMillan threw a touchdown pass and ran for three scores in Tulane's recent win over Tulsa, helping the team earn bowl eligibility. He's averaging a modest 170.3 YPG through the air (13 TDs and 9 INTs) but is also Tulane's leading rusher (488 yards on 5.0 YPA with 12 TDs). FIVE more players have run for between 200 and 455 yards, as Tulane ranks 10th in the nation with 261.2 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has played pretty well, allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). In fact, the Green Wave defense has held SIX of its nine opponents below its season average in total yards. A fumble return for a touchdown against USF highlighted a strong defensive effort by Temple, after the Owls had allowed 108 points in losing their previous two games. However, also Temple set a season low with 17 points scored, as QB Anthony Russo was held under 200 yards passing for the third straight game (Russo has 16 TD passes and nine INTs). RBs Davis (655 YR / 4.9 YPA / 5 TDs) and Gardner (538 RY / 4.3 YPA / 5 TDs each contribute but Temple's averaging a modest 26.4 PPG (81st) on offense. The defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). Here's the key to this contest and my bet on Temple. Tulane has been a different team on the road, going 1-3 SU, with their three losses by a combined 51 points! Meanwhile, Temple is 4-1 SU and ATS at home, with its 'ugly' 63-21 loss to UCF being an outlier. The Owls' Sep 21 loss at Buffalo looks like an aberration, as and their only other defeats were to 9-1 SMU and 7-3 UCF. In Temple's four home wins, its defense has allowed a total of just 59 points (12.3 per), limiting opposing rushing attacks to an average of 110.5 YPG and three rushing TDs (tough matchup for Tulane's strength, its running game). One last thing, Temple also checks in 8-2 ATS (80% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). Take the points, here! Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -2 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Toledo at 8:00 ET. The Northern Illinois Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies then won two of three MAC games but on Nov 2, got crushed 48-10 at Central Michigan, leaving them 3-6 (2-3 in the MAC West) on the season. Toledo knows all about winning seasons, as the Rockets entered 2019 with 21 in their last 25. The Rockets have posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 6-3 (3-2 in the MAC West), are bowl-eligible and barring an 0-3 finish, will record a NINTH winning season the last 10 seasons. This matchup has decided the West winner in FOUR of the last five years but that will NOT be the case in 2019. Marcus Childers started at QB for NIU against Akron, as Ross Bowers was recovering from a concussion. He only attempted nine passes but completed seven for 71 yards, while throwing three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU won that game 49-0 but the Zips are 0-9 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 14 in a row (pending Tuesday's outcome vs EMU). Bowers was back in action at CMU on Nov 2 but threw three INTs in the 48-10 loss. He's completing only 57.9% with more INTs (8) than TD passes (6) on the season. Let's NOT put all the blame on Bowers, as Toledo managed just 22 yards rushing against CMU, averaging 0.9 YPA. NIU checks in averaging a putrid 118.8 YPG on the ground (117th) on 3.4 YPA. Defensively, NIU is allowing 27.9 PPG (70th). Toledo has some QB issues as well, as Mitchell Guadagni has completed 64.8% with eight TDs and just two INTs but hasn't played since Oct 12. He continues to be listed as questionable and Toledo has started Eli Peters the last two games. Peters had 18 TDs and seven INTs in 2018 and while he's thrown for a modest 332 yards (3 TDs / 1 INT) in two starts, the Rockestshave won both while scoring 37 and 35 points. RB Bryant Koback (1,099 yards on 6.5 YPA with 10 TDs) ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and added 67 yards with two TDs against Kent on Nov 5, before leaving the game with an injury. However, fellow RB Shakif Seymour (560 yards on 4.7 YPA and 4 TDs) took over and ran for a career high 175 yards with two TDs. The Toledo D has struggled all season, allowing 467.9 YPG (118th), while allowing 28.6 YPG (75th). The winner of this contest will NOT represent the West in the MAC championship game (Dec 7) but of the two schools, Toledo still can finish with a fairly good season. This is Toledo's final road game and the Rockets will be tested at Buffalo and CMU in their final two games. Toledo is 5-0 SU at home this season (outscoring opponents 35.2-to-22.4), improving their home record to 48-12 in their 60 games at the Glass Bowl. The Huskies play their final road game of 2019 in this one, checking in with a 1-5 record, getting outscored 35.7-to-19.3 PPG in 2019. What changes here? Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -1 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET. Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. The Vols opened 1-4 (lone win 45-0 over Chattanooga) but visit long-time rival Kentucky, having gone 3-1 and 4-0 ATS. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops led the Wildcats to a 10-3 season in 2018, including a 27-24 upset of Penn St in the Citrus Bowl. The 10 wins matched the second-most in school history for a single season, as only Kentucky's 1950 team won more, going 11-1. Kentucky comes in off a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26 but enters this contest just 4-4. The Volunteers have started three QBs but junior Jarrett Guarantano has thrown the majority of the passes (161 of 243) and has 11 of the team's 14 TD passes (against five INTs). A quick check of the numbers reveal taht Tennessee is scoring 24.7 PPG on 349.0 YPG, while allowing 24.1 PPG on 3451.0 YPG (hard to make those almost identical numbers up). The Vols have just three games left and need TWO wins to become bowl-eligible. I've read where some think the Vols are surging but I view the team's recent 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS run as nothing more than them taking advantage of some flawed opponents at home and covering a big spread (+34.5) while losing 35-13 at Alabama. Kentucky knows all about QB merry-go-rounds, as an injury to starter Terry Wilson and ineffective play by Sawyer Smith has forced Stoops to turn to receiver turned quarterback, Lynn Bowden Jr. Bowden started the year as a receiver, catching 30 passes for 348 yards but is now lining up under center. He's completing just 40.5 percent of his passes but has excelled as a runner, highlighted by a 204-yard game in Kentucky's most recent game, a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26. However, Bowden has also made some unique history in two recent games for the Wildcats. Against South Carolina, he joined Arizona State's Kalen Ballage as the only FBS players since 2000 to have at least six rushing attempts, three receptions, three kickoff returns and two pass completions in the same game. A week later against Arkansas, he had at least 20 rush attempts, 10 pass attempts and a punt return in the same game to become the third FBS player since 2000 to do so along with Kent State's Julian Edelman and Indiana's Antwaan Randle-El. Both schools are two wins shy of bowl eligibility but while Kentucky has four game left, Tennessee only has three and one is at Missouri, where the Tigers are 5-0. Historically, beating the Wildcats has been near-automatic for the Vols, as Kentucky has only beaten Tennessee TWICE since 1984! However, the Vols lost at Kentucky in 2017, for just the second time in 33 years. That said, Kentucky is 4-1 SU at home in 2019 and 5-0 ATS, as the Wildcats covered their lone home loss against Florida, in a 29-21 loss. Revisiting that contest, the Wildcats led 21-10 early in the 4th quarter, before folding. My bet says Kentucky, not Tennessee, is the team surging. The Wildcats win at home vs Missouri began a closing stretch of playing FOUR of their last five games in Lexington, plus the lone road game is against a 2-6 Vandy team. Win here, the Wildcats could finish with EIGHT wins, before heading off to a bowl. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Stanford -3 v. Colorado | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Stanford at 3:00 ET. David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but at 4-4 (3-3 in Pac 12), the Cardinal will need to win TWO of their final four games in 2019 to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season (ninth under Shaw). Colorado has a first-year head coach in Mel Tucker and after a 3-1 start, his Buffs have lost FIVE in a row (Buffs are 3-6 / 1-5 Pac 12). Stanford comes into this contest off a 41-31 home win over Arizona, a game marked by the return of senior K.J. Costello, who had missed the previous three contests with a thumb injury. Costello showed few signs of any rust, completing 30-of-43 for 312 yards and three TDs. Costello has 'game,' as he showed last season by throwing for 3,540 yards with 29 TDs and just 11 INTs. Against Arizona, he connected with 12 different receivers. Senior RB Cameron Scarlett (700 YR / 4.4 YPA / 5 TDs) provided balance on the ground with 102 yards and two TDs. Stanford's offensive numbers are poor (22.6 PPG on 348.8 YPG) but with Costello back under center, that could (WILL) change. While Stanford's offense is "on the mend," QB Montez and the Colorado offense has 'gone in the tank,' after a hot start. The Buffs opened 3-1 while averaging 35.8 PPG but Colorado 'limps' into this contest having lost FIVE in row, with the team scoring 14 or less points in THREE of its last four outings. Montez was expected to take a HUGE step forward in 2019 but that hasn't been the case, as he's thrown for a modest 2,242 yards with 14 TDs and nine INTs. However, it's hard to focus too much on Montez, when Colorado's defense has allowed 34.4 PPG (114th) on 480.7 YPG (124th). Colorado has allowed 30 or more points in all NINE games and has allowed 333.7 YPG passing in its last three. That's "bad news' with Costello back healthy for Stanford. Thd Cardinal will likely finish with their worst record under Shaw but then again, Shaw' has compiled a 25-7 record in the month of November and he's got FOUR of them in 2019. I expect Stanford to finish strong (and extend that bowl streak). The Cardinal "got going" on the final Saturday of October with that win over Arizona (see above) and coming off a bye week, are "rested and ready" to roll over a Colorado team which is stumbling to the finish line. Blowout Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Baylor v. TCU +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on TCU at 12:00 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 after surviving a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite. Baylor owns a 10-game winning streak and currently is ranked 11th in the latest AP poll, while opening No. 12 in the first CFP rankings. The Bears head to Forth Worth on Saturday to face the 4-4 TCU Horned Frogs (2-2 in Big 12). TCU beat then-No. 15 Texas 34-27 on Oct 26 but then lost 34-27 at Oklahoma St last Saturday. Head coach Gary Patterson but it well telling reporters last Saturday, "We're just good enough we can beat anybody we got in this league, and we're just good enough we can get beat by anybody in this league." , Baylor's latest win was a 17-14 Halloween night victory over West Virginia in which it found a way to eke out a win by fending off the Mountaineers' big plays. Baylor outgained West Virginia 453-219 but lost three fumbles. QB Charlie Brewer is completing 67.6 percent for 2,143 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs. FIVE players have over 160 yards rushing, led by Lovett (495 YR / 6.4 YPA) and Hasty (439 RY / 6.3 YPA). Baylor owns a very balanced offense, averaging 280.9 YPG passing and 199.4 YPG rushing, leading to averaging 36.1 PPG (24th). The defense has played well all season, holding opponents to 18.5 PPG (20th) on 341.1 YPG (31st). TCU played a bad game at Stillwater last week. The Horned Frogs allowed 223 rushing yards to Chuba Hubbard, the nation's leading rusher, the most ever by an opponent in coach Gary Patterson's 19-season tenure in Fort Worth. The Frogs also committed four turnovers. QB Max Duggan was knocked out in the fourth quarter of last week's loss with a finger injury but Patterson has told reporters he expects Duggan to play. The freshman has thrown for 1,405 yards with 12 TDs and just four INTs (three coming vs OSU). Like Baylor, TCU has excellent offensive balance, passing for 221.5 YPG and rushing for 220.2 YPG, while averaging 33.4 PPG (42nd). The defense is allowing a modest 326.2 YPG (25th) but 26.1 PPG (59th). Rhule has done a great job at Baylor but the Bears begin a brutal three-game stretch, starting with this game at Fort Worth. Baylor returns home next Saturday to host No. 9 Oklahoma and then travels to Austin to play Texas the following Saturday. More importantly, how many times can Baylor "pull a rabbit out of its hat?" The Bears edged Iowa St 23-21, needed two OTs to beat Texas Tech (now 3-5) and in its last game, beat West Va (now 3-5) by three points. Even Baylor's 45-27 win over OSU was deceiving. The Bears actually trailed 27-24 in the 4th quarter, before scoring the game's last three TDs. How tough has TCU been at home under Gary Patterson. He took over at TCU full-time in 2001 and since that first season, the Horned Frogs are 89-22 SU at home, including 3-1 in 2019, outscoring opponents 41.2-to-22.2 PPG. The Horned Frogs have won FOUR straight over Baylor and ruin the Bears perfect season with a win here. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Penn State v. Minnesota +7 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Minnesota at 12:00 ET. 8-0 Penn St is ranked 5th in the AP poll but entered the first College Football Playoff rankings at fourth, a first-ever for the school. Penn St's last game was an Oct 26 win at Michigan St (28-7), so the Nittany Lions head to Minneapolis with a week of rest. Like Penn St, Minnesota is also 8-0 (both are 5-0 in the Big Ten but Penn St is in the East and Minnesota in the West) and the Golden Gophers are also coming off a bye week. Minnesota routed Maryland 52-10 on Oct 26, reaching 8-0 for the first time since 1941 (note: Minnesota has not started a season 9-0 in 115 years!). Penn St is tied with Ohio St in the East and will meet the Buckeyes, who were No. 1 in the 1st CFP rankings, at Columbus on Nov 23. However, that upcoming game with the Buckeyes won't mean as much if the Lions cannot solve the Gophers.Sophomore QB Sean Clifford is second in the Big Ten in passing yards (1,931) and TDs (20), while throwing just three INTs. The Penn St running game is nothing special, averaging 172.4 YPG (57th). Freshman Noah Cain leads a fleet of running backs with 350 yards (hardly impressive). However, Penn St is averaging 38.5 PPG (13th) and that's "plenty good enough" with the team's OUTSTANDING defense. Penn St will enter TCF Bank Stadium allowing just 9.6 PPG (2nd) on 280.5 YPG (10th). Minnesota head coach PF Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016 when the Broncos completed an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season, although Penn St will be the first ranked team Minnesota has faced. QB Tanner Morgan has similar numbers to Clifford, completing 65.3% for for 1,761 yards with 18 TDs and four INTs. Minnesota's running game is better than Penn St's, averaging 204.5 YPG (31st), led by senior Rodney Smith (889 YR / 5.8 YPA / 7 TDs), who has rushed for at least 100 yards in all five Big Ten games. Minnesota's D is allowing just 283.8 YPG (13th) but has allowed 20.0 PPG, about 10 1/2 points more per game than Penn St. The QB matchup is 'a push,' but Minnesota has the best RB in the game (Smith). Take note that Penn St's offense has slowed, averaging under 300 YPG its last three games, while scoring just 24.3 PPG (that's two TDs below its season average). I'm 'rowing the boat' with Fleck by "taking the points" with Minnesota. Good luck....Larry |
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11-07-19 | Temple -1 v. South Florida | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Temple at 8:00 ET. Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF have put what could have been a special season for the Owls on 'life-support.' The USF Bulls went 11-2 (2016) and 10-2 (2017) but after a 7-0 start in 2018, finished with SIX straight losses. The Bulls opened the 2019 season 1-3 but have rebounded by winning THREE of four to reach 4-4 Temple’s vet QB Russo (1,873 passing yards / 16-8 ratio) has thrown for just 370 yards in the Owls' back-to-back losses, while Temple's ground game was non-existent (114 yards on 1.6 YPA). Temple does have two solid RBs in Davis (655 yards on 4.9 YPA) and Gardner (405 yards on 4.0 YPA), with both scoring five times. It's hard NOT seeing them being able to run against South Florida rush D allowing 199.2 YPG (103rd). Temple's D has been gored the last two games but in the team's 5-1 start, had allowed a modest 19.0 PPG. USF has used two QBs this season and neither has been effective. Barrett is completing 51.9% with four TDs and two INTs and McCloud is completing 55.6% with 10 TDs and six INTs. The Bulls ran for for 347 yards in beating East Carolina 45-20 but the Pirates are an awful defensive team, allowing 204.3 YPG on the ground. USF's four wins have come over South Carolina St (FCS) plus UConn, ECU and BYU. The BYU victory is the team's "marquee win" and note that the Cougars are only 4-4 (Bulls won just, 27-23 in Tampa). UConn and ECU are a combined 5-13. USF has has averaged 43.8 PPG in the team's four victories but just 8.5 PPG in losing to Wisconsin, Ga Tech, SMU and Navy. USF led 17-0 at the half last year at Temple, but the Owls came back to win 27-17, with QB Russo passing for 264 yards. I'm looking for Temple to 'shake off' its back-to-back losses and avoid the team's first three-game losing streak since 2014 (Owls' last non-bowl team, which finished 6-6). Temple becomes bowl-eligible with a win here and could be well on its way to matching, or surpassing, last year's eight wins. Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-19 | Kent State v. Toledo -7 | Top | 33-35 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 7:00 ET. The Kent State Golden Flashes do not have much of football hiistory, unless you consider the school's ineptness, noteworthy. Darrell Hazzell led KSU to an 11-3 season in 2012, the school's first winning season since 2001 (6-5). FYI, prior to 2001, KSU had 13 consecutive losing seasons. Hazzell used that 2012 season to get the job at Purdue and by the way, he was fired after 3 1/2 seasons in which he was 9-33. Getting back to KSU, the Golden Flashes have had SIX straight losing season since Hazzell jumped ship, including current head coach Sean Lewis' 2-10 record in 2018 (his first at the school). The Golden Flashes are 3-5 here in 2019. In stark contrast, Toledo has had 21 winning seasons in its last 25. The Rockets entered the current season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 5-3, is well on their way to another winning season and bowl appearance in 2019. Both schools have been off since Oct 26, as the month of November brings "MACtion,"with the conference playing a plethora of non-Saturday games through the day after Thanksgiving. Head coach Sean Lewis started the season with Woody Barrett under center but he was quickly replaced by junior Dustin Crum, a decision that has turned out well. Crum is completing 67.0% for 1,345 yards with 10Tds and just one INT. He is also the team's leading rusher, as KSU is averaging a middle-of-the-road 170.8 YPG on the ground (61st). Kent is averaging only 23.9 PPG (100th) on 365.8 YPG (96th). Defensively, KSU is allowing 30.9 PPG (93rd) on 467.8 YPG (119th). Toledo has some QB issues, as both Mitchell Guadagni and Carter Bradley are dealing with injuries. Toldeo turned Eli Peters in its last game and Peters completed 9 of 18 for just 138 yards but threw two TDs and zero INTs (note: Peters threw 18 TDs vs 7 INTs in 2018). RB Bryant Koback ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and he has run for 985 yards on the season (6.6 YPC and 8 TDs). Toledo ranks 13th in rushing, averaging 245.0 YPG. Toledo is NOT in good shape in the highly competitive MAC West but Toledo faces an excellent matchup here, as its excellent running game (see above) faces a KSU rush D which is allowing 128th in the nation at 250.9 YPG. Kent St is 1-4 SU on the road in 2019, getting outscored on average, 36.2-to-17.4 PPG. This marks Kent's first game against a West opponent in 2019 and it can't be ignored that the Golden Flashes are just 1-12 vs West opponents going back to 2014. Series history reveals that Toledo has won 11 of 13 vs Kent since 1988 and that Kent has not won at Toledo since 1977! I noted earlier that Toledo has posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and the Rockets entered the current season 43-12 SU at home . The Rockets are 4-0 SU and ATS at home in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 35.2-to-19.8 PPG. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-19 | Fresno State v. Hawaii -1 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -117 | 83 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Hawaii at 11:55 ET. Jeff Tedford came to in 2017 and led a team which went 1-11 in 2016 to a 10-4 record in 2017and then to a 12-2 record in 2018. However, most anticipated that 2019 would be a rebuilding one for the Bulldogs and that has been the case. Fresno is 3-4 overall (1-2 MWC) and travels to Hawaii off a 41-31 home loss to Colorado St. Hawaii checks in at 5-3 (2-2 in MWC) and this contest with Fresno St opens a stretch in which Hawaii will play FOUR of its final five games at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu (13-game schedule). Fresno State QB Jorge Reyna is completing 62.8% for 1,655 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs.The team has suffered injuries to its RB group and checks in averaging 166.9 YPG (70th). That said, FSU has averaged 33.0 PPG (36th). The problem for FSU in 2019 has been a defense that allowed just 14.1 PPG (2018) and 17.9 (2017), has allowed 31.0 PPG (95th) in 2019. Hawaii QB Cole McDonald is completing 65.5% for 2,521 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs (Hawaii ranks 3rd in the nation, averaging 354.5 YPG through the air). Hawaii's defense is even worse than Fresno's, allowing 35.4 PPG (120th) on 437.8 YPG (104th). Fresno has won SEVEN of the last eight meetings but TY's Fresno edition only has wins over Sacramento St (FCS), New Mexico St (0-8) and UNLV (2-6). The Rainbow Warriors have a much more balanced offensive attack and are staring down a bowl bid with this contest, as well as home games with San Jose St and Army still to go. Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | New Mexico v. Nevada -3 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. Nevada began 2019 with a 34-31 home upset of Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. The Wolf Pack edged San Jose St 41-38 at home to open October but have since lost 36-10 at Utah St and 31-3 at Wyoming. The Wolf Pack return home this Saturday at 4-4 (1-3 in MWC) to host 2-6 New Mexico (0-4 MWC). The Lobos enter this contest on a five-game slide. Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos beat Sam Houston St (FCS ) and New Mexico St (currently 0-8) in its first three games but as noted above, has now lost FIVE in a row. New Mexico owns a solid running game (211.8 YPG ranks 25th) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 37.6 PPG (126th) on 505.6 YPG (129th). Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii but the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.1 PPG (117th) on 357.2 YPG (100th). However, here's the rub. These schools have met just seven times (series is tied 3-3-1) but the home team is 5-1-1. Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 61-28 SU since 2005 and a victory here puts Nevada just ONE win away from bowl eligibility, with games at Fresno St (3-4) and home to UNLV (2-6) still left on the schedule. As for New Mexico, it's time for Davie to go! Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | Oregon v. USC +5 | Top | 56-24 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* play is on USC at 8:00 ET. Oregon opened the season No. 11 in the AP poll and met No. 16 Auburn in its season opener on Aug 31 in Arlington, Tx.. The Ducks led 21-6 late in the third quarter but saw Auburn score the game's final three TDs for a 27-21 win. The game-winner for Auburn came on a 26-yard TD pass with just NINE seconds remaining in the game. As the old saying goes, "Don't get mad, get even." Mario Cristobal's team has done just that, winning SEVEN in a row (including a 5-0 start in Pac-12 play). The Ducks outscored the opposition on average, 39.0-to-5.0 PPG in winning the first five games of that streak, then won nail-biters 35-31 at Washington and 37-35 at home over Washington St. USC was unranked in the AP's preseason poll (received just ONE point) but after opening 3-1, including wins over then-No. 23 Stanford and then-No. 10 Utah, the Trojans were ranked 21st when they lost 28-14 at Washington on Sep 29th. USC lost its next game 30-27 at then-No. 9 Notre Dame. USC enters his contest off back-to-back wins over Arizona (41-14) and Colorado (35-31), giving them a modest 5-3 record overall but at 4-1 in the Pac-12 South which puts them in a tie with Utah for the division lead. Oregon's senior QB (Justin Herbert) is a likely top-five NFL draft pick, with some projecting him being a strong candidate for the top pick . He completing 68.3% for 2,104 yards with 21 TDs and just one INT. He had thrown a TD pass in 35 consecutive games, the longest streak in the nation, but that steak was broken in last Saturday's win over Washington St. He's protected by a veteran offensive line that also gives Oregon a solid running game (194.4 YPG ranks 42nd, averaging 5.1 YPC). Oregon is averaging 36.0 PPG (25th) on 470.2 YPG (24th). The defense allowed just 8.7 PPG (on 267.7 YPG) through six games, but after allowing 66 points in its last two wins, Oregon's D is allowing 14.8 PPG (9th) on 310.6 (YPG). Freshman QB Kedon Slovis is one of three starting QBs USC has used in 2019 but the Trojans have to be very happy he's now their No. 1 guy. He ranks second in the Pac-12 and sixth nationally in completion percentage (72.3) and was 30-of-44 for 406 yards, four TDs and an interception in the Trojans 35-31 victory at Colorado last Friday, giving him a 13-5 ratio on the season. His job is made easier by the fact that he has a trio of NFL-caliber WRs Michael Pittman Jr. (50 catches, 755 yards, seven TDs), Tyler Vaughns (50 catches, 638 yards, five TDs) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (40 catches, 432 yards, four TDs). USC's defense is allowing 24.9 PPG (49th) on 429.5 YPG (98th). Oregon almost has the Pac-12 North locked up, while USC is in a tug-of-war with Utah, although USC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with South Division co-leader Utah by virtue of its 30-23 victory over the Utes on Sep 20th. Oregon is still 'dreaming' it can somehow slip into the CFP Final 4 but USC can burst that bubble with a win here. USC went just 3-3 at home last during 2018's 5-7finish, losing its final three home games. However, USC entered that late-season stretch in 2018 having won 19 straight at the Coliseum. USC is back to dominating at home in 2019, going 4-0 while outscoring opponents 36.8-to-20.0 PPG. Oregon's CFP hopes will be "Gone with the Wind' after this one, while USC moves closer to a rematch with Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game (a Washington win over Utah would help). Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | SMU v. Memphis -4.5 | Top | 48-54 | Win | 100 | 123 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Memphis at 7:30 ET. Could anyone have possibly imagined at the start of the 2019 season that this Nov 2 game featuring SMU at Memphis would find ESPN's "GameDay" descending on Memphis for its pregame show. However, that's what we have as 8-0 SMU is one just NINE unbeatens in CFB and carries its No. 15 ranking into the Liberty Bowl to battle 7-1 Memphis, which is ranked 24th. In less than two seasons, Sonny Dykes has done what his seven predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU is off to its best start since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982. Memphis' Mike Norvell is in his fourth season and will have his Tigers in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The question is, what kind of bowl. The winner of this game will likely hold the "inside track" on a New Years' Day Bowl (highest-ranked school from the Group of Five will earn a berth in the Cotton Bowl). SMU didn't quite meet Dykes' standards last weekend at Houston but the Mustangs never trailed and managed to hold on for a 34-31 victory for their first 4-0 start in conference play since 1986. Texas transfer QB Shane Buechele is completing 63.2% for 2,325 yards (AAC-best 290.6 YPG with 20 TDs and just three INTs. RB Xavier Jones leads SMU with 884 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 15 TDs) for a team averaging 202.8 YPG on the ground (32nd). That nice balance has seen SMU score at least 34 points in every game and enters the contest ranked sixth nationally in scoring offense (43.0 PPG). Defensively, SMU is no better than middle-of-the pack, allowing 27.8 PPG (67th) on 387.5 YPG (60th). Memphis knows all about "close calls," after holding on for a 42-41 comeback victory last weekend, when Tulsa's Jacob Rainey missed a 29-yard FG attempt as time expired. As the press release from Memphis' sports information department noted following that one-point victory, "Sometimes, a memorable season needs the assistance of a fortunate break." RB Kenneth Gainwell posted his sixth consecutive 100-yard game and scored a season-high three TDs for the Tigers. He's got 979 yards on the season (7.1 YPC / 11 TDs) and currently owns an FBS-best average of 177.4 scrimmage yards per game. QB Brady White's numbers rank right with Buechele's, completing 69.0% for 2,014 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. The Memphis D is better than SMU's, but not by all that much. Memphis is allowing 23.0 PPG (42nd) on 375.0 YPG (54th). Sure, Memphis was fortunate last week at Tulsa but SMU has also had some good fortune, with FOUR four wins by seven points or less, including a 34-31 win over a 3-5 Houston team last Saturday (note: SMU was outgained 510-385) plus a 43-37 three-OT win back on Oct 5 at HOME, over the same Tulsa team that almost beat Memphis last Saturday (note: Tulsa sits just 2-6). Dykes has done a remarkable job at SMU but this team is 'ripe for the plucking' and Memphis has all the tools to put an end to the Mustangs' perfect season. The Tigers' ONLY loss of 2019 was a two-point one at Temple, when the Tigers committed FOUR turnovers. Memphis has been great at home under Norvell, going 18-4 SU in his tenure, including 4-0 in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 38.0-to-18.5 PPG. Looking for a 'clincher?' How about two? Memphis has won FIVE straight over SMU (average score 43-13) and under Norvell (1st season was 2016), Memphis is 10-1 SU and ATS (that's 91%), in the month of November, averaging 49.0 PPG. Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | Utah v. Washington +3.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on Washington at 4:00 ET. Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll, while Utah checked in right behind them at No. 14. However, as the two Pac-12 schools meet Saturday in Seattle, Utah is ranked 9th in the latest AP poll (7-1 / 3-1 in Pac-12), while Washington is unranked at 5-3 (2-3 in Pac-12). Utah vists Washington in the midst of a dominating defensive stretch, holding opponents to just 23 points during a four-game winning streak, while scoring 146 points (36.5 PPG). The streak began after the Utes lost their lone game of 2019, 30-23 at USC on Sep 20. The Huskies are coming off a bye week, getting a much-need break after losing 35-31 at home against now-No. 7 Oregon on Oct 19 (Washington led 28-14 and 31-21 in that one). Utah's D gets most of the attention (10.2 P PG ranks 4th and 231.2 YPG ranks 3rd), as the Utes have held four teams to seven or fewer points this season. However, Utah's offense is averaging 33.1 PPG (38th) on 452.4 YPG (30th). Senior QB Tyler Huntley is completing 73.1 percent of his passes for 1,778 yards and 10 TDs, while throwing just one interception. He is the 5th QB in program history to top 6,000 career yards (6,037). Senior RB Zack Moss (728 rushing yards / 6.6 YPC / 10 TDs) has set records for career rushing TDs (33) and career 100-yard games (15) plus holds the Utah's career rushing yardage mark of 3,379. Obviously, Washington is a disappointment with three losses but head coach Chris Petersen has had a bye week to prepare for the challenge of moving the ball against the Utes. Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's thrown three or more TD passes in four different games, completing 67.4 percent for 1,981 yards,with 16 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (663 RY / 5.8 YPC / 7 TDs). Washington is averaging 35.8 PPG (28th) and most teams would be happy with a defense allowing 21.5 PPG (33rd). Hopes of a Pac-12 title are pretty much 'dead' (Huskies are 2-3 in the Pac-12 North while the Ducks are 5-0) but Petersen is a quality coach and Washington a quality program which will play with plenty of pride. Utah was not able to win at USC (allowed 30 points) and the Huskies have totally dominated the Utes in this series, winning 12 of 13 all-time meetings. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | Georgia v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Florida at 3:30 ET. No. 6 Florida and No. 8 Georgia square off in Jacksonville on Saturday. The programs first met in 1915 and have played every season since 1926 except for a war-time interruption in 1943. It is one of the most prominent rivalry games in college football, and has been held in Jacksonville, Florida since 1933, with only two exceptions, making it one of the few remaining neutral-site rivalries in college football. It's earned it the nickname of the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." The winner of this game will gain the inside track to the SEC East Division title and a spot in the SEC championship game (Dec 7). Both teams were off last week and Georgia enters 6-1 (3-1 in the SEC). Recent series history tells us that the team that rushes for the most yards will win the rivalry contest. The team that has won the rushing battle has won this matchup each of the past 13 years, which could be good news for a Georgia. RB Swift has 752 yards rushing (6.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and leads a Georgia rushing game that is tops in the SEC, averaging 238.4 YPG (ranks 16th nationally). QB Jake Fromm is now a junior but while he's completing 70.7% of his passes, he has a modest nine TD passes (just three INTs), after producing ratios of 24-7 as a freshman and 30-6 as a sophomore. The Bulldogs do own an outstanding defense, allowing just 10.6 PPG (5th) on 267.1 YPG (7th). It's unlikely that Florida will out-rush Georgia, as the Gators leading rusher is Perine (a modest 460 yards / 4.6 YPC) and team is averaging only 142.8 YPG (90th). However, the Gators may just have an edge at QB (I believe they do), as since taking over for the injured Feleipe Franks, junior Kyle Trask has passed for 1,351 yards and 13 TDs (just 4 INTs) while completing 67.1 percent of his passes.It sure helps that he has a deep set of receivers, as Florida is one of three FBS schools (Eastern Michigan and Washington State are the others) to have four players with at least 275 receiving yards, at least 20 receptions and at least two TDs. Florida's D may not quite be in Georgia's class but the Gators are allowing just 15.8 PPG (12th) on 323.4 YPG (25th). Both schools have one loss, with each losing on the same day (Oct 12). Florida lost a 42-28 decision at now-No. 1 LSU, while Georgia lost 20-17 in double overtime at HOME against South Carolina (Bulldogs were a three-TD favorite). The Gators' 42-28 loss at LSU was MUCH closer than the final score. Dan Mullen was concerned about the Gators' inability to put points on the board in their last four drives, including two fourth-quarter trips inside LSU's 20-yard line. Trask threw a costly end-zone interception with about 7 1/2 minutes left in the game, with Florida trailing only 35-28. After blown coverage gave up a 54-yard TD pass for LSU, the Gators again drove the length of the field, only to be stopped on four straight plays with a 1st-and-goal at the LSU two-yard-line! Meanwhile, Georgia's home loss to South Carolina (Gamecocks are currently 3-5, after losing 41-21 to a bad Tennessee team), was just plain embarrassing. Fromm threw THREE interceptions and Georgia's offense was only able to put up 17 points against a defense that has since allowed 38 points at home to Florida and 41 points at Tennessee. Florida dominated then-No. 7 Auburn, holding an offense that has averaged 34.2 PPG on 415.4 YPG to 13 points and 269 yards in an 11-point win. Then, as noted above, Florida went toe-to-toe at LSU. In contrast, in Georgia lone game games vs a ranked opponent (at home against then-No. 7 Notre Dame), the Bulldogs barely got by, winning 23-17 (as 15.5-point favorite), as Fromm passed for just 187 yards. That win hardly looks impressive now, after Michigan exposed Notre Dame as a 'fraud,' routing the Fighting Irish 45-14 last Saturday. My bet says Fla handles Ga in this one and best of all, we are getting about a TD! Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan +1.5 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 45 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Central Michigan at 12:00 ET. The 3-5 Northern Illinois Huskies travel to Mount Pleasant, Mi to take on the 5-4 Central Michigan Chippewas. Both schools play in the MAC West, where Ball St leads the way at 3-1. NIU is 2-2 and CMU 3-2, so the winner of this game will still be 'alive' for a shot to reach the MAC championship game. The Huskies are coming off a 49-0 romp over Akron but the Zips are 0-8 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 13 in a row. As for the Chippewas, they got hammered 43-20 at Buffalo last Saturday, snapping a three-game winning streak. Marcus Childers started at QB fro NIU against Akron (Ross Bowers is recovering from a concussion) and while he only attempted nine passes, completing seven for 71 yards, he threw three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU ran for 274 yards but on the season, the Huskies are averaging just 130.9 YPG on the ground (106th). NIU averages 24.9 PPG (94th), while allowing 25.4 PPG (51st). Word is that Bowers is probable for this contest but he's completing a modest 57.3% with just five TDs and five INTs. Is that good or bad news? CMU has used two QBs this season as well, David Moore (57.3% / 5-4 ratio) and Quinten Dormady (63.7% / 8-4 ratio). Moore was suspended and hasn't played since Oct 5, while Dormady threw for 272 yards with two TDs and two INTs against Buffalo. It was his THIRD straight start and he had led CMU to 42 and 38 points in the first two (three TDs and just one INT). CMU features a solid running game with Ward (725 yards / 6.8 YPC / 9 TDs) and Lewis (645 yards / 5.3 YPC / 8 TDs) both contributing to the team averaging 176.7 YPG on the ground (53rd). CMU's defense allows 29.0 PPG (78th). The Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies' have won two of three MAC games since but this feels like a team suffering through a 'down season.' Jim McElwain is in his first season at CMU. He did a very good job at Colo St, which led to him getting the fForida job. He did go 10-4 and 9-4 in his first two seasons at Florida but he was brought in to 'spice up' Florid and he failed miserably at that. At 3-4 in his third season, he was fired. However, he has CMU one win away from bowl eligibility, mainly due to the Chippewas going 4-0 at home, outscoring opponents on average, 41.8-to-22.2 PPG. Recent history is on CMU's side, as last year's 24-16 loss to NIU ended a four-game winning streak by CMU over NIU (4-0 ATS, as well). NIU is 1-4 on the road this season, allowing 33.2 PPG. My bet says the Huskies' road woes continue. Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan +1.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 55 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Year is on Michigan at 7:30 ET. No. 8 Notre Dame looks to stay in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot when it visits No. 19 Michigan on Saturday. The Fighting Irish lost 23-17 to then-No. 3 Georgia back on Sep 21 but have since won THREE in a row, including a 30-27 victory over USC on Oct 12. To stay in the mix for a second consecutive playoff appearance, Notre Dame MUST win at "The Big House" on Saturday night. "Playing at Michigan is always a great challenge and one that our guys are excited about," Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly told reporters. "We have to go on the road again and handle all the distractions there and we look forward to a classic matchup." The Wolverines fell behind 21-0 at Penn St last Saturday night but fought back, although "Big Blue" would ultimately lose, 28-21. Ronnie Bell dropped a pass in the end zone on 4th-and-goal with 2:01 remaining, which would have potentially sent the game to overtime. In the end, it was another "close but no cigar" for Michigan, as the Wolverines fell to 1-10 against top-10 teams under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan is not thinking CFP but it is thinking, "we had better win one of these games, soon!" RB Tony Jones Jr. racked up a career-high 176 rushing yards in the win against USC to top the 100-yard mark for the third consecutive game. ND's running game rushed for a season-high 311 yards but on the season is averaging a good but not great, 192.0 YPG (41st). QB Ian Book was 17-of-32 for 165 yards and a touchdown to go along with a TD on the ground but as I'll note later, I don't think much of him. Notre Dame's defense is very good, allowing 16.8 PPG (15th) on 348.0 YPG(41st). Michigan has typically played excellent defense under Harbaugh and this year's unit is allowing 19.0 PPG (21st) on 285.0 YPG (14th). The lack of a consistent offense has been a problem, as Michigan is averaging just 29.0 PPG (68th) on 392.1 YPG (81st). QB Shea Patterson is completing only 57.4% with nine TDs and four INTs but did have his best game of the season at Penn St, going 24-of-41 for 276 yards plus ran for a TD. Freshman RB Zach Charbonnet ran for 81 yards and two TDs against the Nittany Lions and has 457 yards on the season (4.9 YPC & 7 TDs). These two longtime powerhouses didn't play from 2015-17 but the series was renewed last season when Notre Dame held off a late Michigan surge for a season-opening 24-17 win. My bet says ND is overrated and let me note that QB Book may have a 14-2 ratio through seven games but 10 of his TD passes came against lightweights New Mexico and Bowling Green. Against Georgia, Virginia and USC, he has three TDs, two INTs and has averaged only 201.7 YPG passing. Yes, Michigan has that pathetic record agianst top-10 opponents but I question whether ND is actually a top-10 team. Let me add that here at home, Michigan beat then-No. 14 Iowa 10-3 on Oct 5 and last year, beat then-No. 14 Penn St 42-7 and then-No. 15 Wisconsin 38-13 in "The Big House." Michigan has won 12 straight at home, including going 4-0 at home in 2019, outscoring opponents 31.5-to-11.2. Notre Dame hasn't played in Ann arbor since 2013 but the Fighting Irish have lost SEVEN of their last eight visits to Michigan Stadium. "Big Blue" wins this one in a big way and at least "keeps hope alive" until Ohio St comes to town on Nov 30. Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-19 | Arizona State -3.5 v. UCLA | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Arizona St at 7:30 ET. Arizona State is 5-2 and UCLA 2-5 but both teams are 2-2 in Pac-12 play. No. 24 ASU travels to the Rose Bowl on Saturday, looking to bounce back from its worst offensive output in 11 years. Utah ended Arizona State's streak of 125 games with more than 10 points in last Saturday’s 21-3 victory.UCLA opened 0-3 but has gone 2-2 in conference play, after ending an 11-year drought against Stanford by cruising to a 34-16 win against the Cardinal a week ago Thursday. Utah did not allow Arizona State’s offense to cross midfield in the first half and allowed only 136 yards of total offense for the game. “I told our football team that we’re going to find out a lot about ourselves this next week,” head coach Herm Edwards told reporters. “Utah hit us in the mouth, and they beat us up. Credit to them. The second half of the season will tell us a lot about where we’re at.” Freshman QB Freshman Jayden Daniels threw for 363 yards and recorded four touchdowns in a 38-34 win over Washington State but at Salt Lake City, he was 4-of-18 for 25 yards and an interception. RB Eno Benjamin ran for 104 yards on 15 carries against the Utes, accounting for almost all of ASU's offense. Benjamin ran for 1,632 yards in 2018 (with 16 TDs) but has a more modest 633 yards in 2019. ASU's defense is allowing 18.1 PPG (18th) on 352.7 YPG (43rd). The Bruins snapped a two-game losing skid with their win over Stanford, as QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson returned after missing one game due to injury and passed for two TDs and ran for another. RB Joshua Kelley ran for 176 yards. The Bruins averaged only 78 YPG rushing in their 0-3 start but they are averaging 221.5 YPG on the ground in their last four contests. Defensively, UCLA ranks 115th in points allowed (34.6 PPG), as well as in total defense, allowing 459.7 YPG. While it looks as if Oregon has taken control of the Pac-12 North, the South is far from settled. Utah and USC (Trojans play Friday night at Colorado) are tied for the division lead at 3-1 with Arizona State, Arizona and UCLA all a game back at 2-2. The Bruins still face Utah and USC, while the Sun Devils have USC and Arizona remaining on their schedule. I believe ASU is the much better team and ASU already owns road wins over teams ranked at the time of those games (won at then-No. 18 Mich St and at then-No. 15 Cal). UCLA's two wins have come 67-63 at Wash St (Bruins trailed 49-17 in the late 3Q) and over Stanford, which was down to its third-string QB. Chip Kelly is just 5-13 SU since coming to UCLA and unlike Herm Edwards of ASU (12-8 since coming to Tempe, with FOUR wins over ranked opponents), hasn't beaten a ranked team yet. Don't expect that to change here. Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-19 | Troy +2 v. Georgia State | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -106 | 57 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Play is on Troy at 7:00 ET. Troy is 3-3 (1-1 in SBC) and Georgia St 5-2 (2-1 SBC) as the two schools meet Saturday night in Atlanta.Both have excelelnt offenses, led by good QBs . Troy's Barker (64.4% 16-6 ratio) leads an offense averaging 35.0 PPG (33rd) on 449.2 YPG (33rd), while Ga St's Ellington (65.7% 16-3 ratio) leads an offense averaging 34.4 PPG (36th) on 464.3 YPG (25th). Neither team has much of a defense but Troy owns advantage, allowing 28.8 PPG (79th) to Ga St's 38.9 PPG (117th). The Panthers were not predicted to contend in the Sun Belt's Est Division but the team has clearly overachieved (just ask Tennessee). As for Troy, the Trojans were expected to battle Appalachian St for the East's title. Sometimes, revenge is an angle worth playing but NOT in this case. Troy's won EACH of the last three years against Georgia St, including 37-20 last season, despite losing starting QB Barker to a season-ending knee injury late in first half. Barker's fully healthy now and he out-duels his counterpart Ellington, as Troy makes it FOUR in a row. Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-19 | Central Florida v. Temple +11 | Top | 63-21 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* NCAAF Underdog Shocker of the Month is on Temple at 7:00 ET. UCF and Temple are each 5-2, including 2-1 the American Athletic Conference East Division standings. Both UCF and Temple trail Cincinnati by one game in the division, as they get to square off for a key AAC battle. The Knights have alternated wins and losses in their last five games, most recently a 41-28 victory over East Carolina, while tehe Owls are looking to bounce back after absorbing a 45-21 defeat at SMU. Dillon Gabriel threw two TDs and ran for another score in UCF's win over ECU. The Knights' QB has exactly 2,000 passing yards on the season and an excellent 17-5 ratio. WR Davis has 47 catches for 833 yards with 10 TDs. The running game features four players with 300-plus yards and it averages 212.3 YPG (26th). UCF ranks 5th in scoring (44.3 PPG) on 553.9 YPG 92nd). Defensively, UCF's numbers are solid, allowing 21.7 PPG (39th) on 349.7 YPG (42nd). Temple was dominated start to finish by SMU and was outgained 457-204 in last Saturday's lopsided loss. The Owls allowed six TD passes and 457 passing yards, leading head coach Rod Carey to say: "There's a lot to fix in all areas. The good news is it's correctable. The bad news is it cost us today." QB Anthony Russo threw for 409 yards in the season opener versus Bucknell but since has not surpassed 300 yards in any game, including efforts of 127, 224 and 171 yards over the last three outings. The good news is that his TD-to-INT ratio is 14-6, after it was 14-14 last season. Even after last week's 'ugly' loss at SMU, Temple's D checks in allowing 22.7 PPG (43rd) on 373.0 YPG (55th). Most are well aware that UCF went a combined 25-1 in 2017 and 2018 but the 2019 season has been highlighted (low-lighted?) by a trio of streak-enders. UCF lost 35-34 at Pitt on Sep 21, ending the school's 27-game regular season win streak and then on Oct 4th at Cincy, UCF's streak of 19 straight AAC wins came to and, as did its streak of scoring 30 points or more in 32 straight game, as the Bearcats won 27-24. Temple has proven it can bounce back off a loss and the Owls are 4-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 32.5-to-14.8 PPG). Temple also checks in 8-1 ATS (89% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. As noted above, this 2019 UCF edition does NOT compare to the 2017 or 2018 ones. Take the points and look for a possible SU win by Temple! Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-19 | Texas +1 v. TCU | Top | 27-37 | Loss | -111 | 118 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET. No. 15 Texas somehow escaped with a 50-48 win last Saturday at home vs Kansas (Longhorns were ), when sophomore Cameron Dicker made a 33-yard FG as time expired. Texas totaled 638 yards against Kansas but also allowed 569 in the shootout win, one which left head coach Tom Herman with mixed feelings. "We've got a ton of work to do, obviously, but we'll figure that out. We're happy that we found a way to win," Herman told reporters. "We're going to celebrate the win and obviously come ready to improve the things that we are deficient at right now and enhance the things that we do well and make sure that we're doing more and more of them." The 5-2 Longhorns (3-1 in the Big 12) will visit Fort Worth on Saturday to take on 3-3 TCU (1-2 in the Big-12). The Horned Frogs were 3-1 but have lost back-to-back road games, 49-24 loss at Iowa State and 24-17 at Kansas State. The Texas offense revolves around junior QB Sam Ehlinger, who accounted for 490 total yards (399 passing, 91 rushing) against Kansas and has passed for 2,057 yards and 21 TDs while being intercepted just three times (he's completing 69.4%). Texas is averaging 40.9 PPG (9th) on 482.0 YPG (15th) but the Longhorns have repeatedly struggled on defense, allowing 30.7 PPG (96th) on 469.9 YPG (119th).Texas enters this contest having allowed 30 or more points in FOUR straight games! The Horned Frogs seem committed to freshman QB Max Duggan, despite consecutive road losses. He's completing only 56.3% for 874 yards (almost 1,200 yards fewer than Ehlinger) and while he has a modest nine TD passes, he's yet to throw an interception in 142 attempts, the second-best streak in program history. Gary Patterson teams always play strong defense and this year's unit is no different. TCU is allowing only 284.0 YPG, tops in the Big-12 and 13th in the nation. However, TCU is allowing 24.7 PPG, which ranks a more modest 53rd. Then again, the Horned Frogs have allowed a national-low 76 first downs. Texas is the highest-ranked two-loss team in the AP poll and with good reason, as the Longhorns' two losses have each come by seven points to current No. 2 LSU and current No. 5 Oklahoma. Last week's 'scare' should only give Texas greater focus in this one. Yes, the Texas defense is a liability but TCU is just too one-dimensional to take real advantage of it. Sam Ehlinger 'saved' the Longhorns' season last Saturday against Kansas (399 yards passing and four TDs), when he bailed out Texas with a drive in the final 71 seconds to set up Cameron Dicker's winning FG. No such dramatics needed here, as Texas rolls. Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh -5 | Top | 16-12 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Pittsburgh at 12:00 ET. Many thought that Miami's 17-9 win over then-No. 20 Virginia on Oct 11 was a "turning" point in the 'Canes season but just eight days later, Miami lost 28-21 (in OT) at home to Ga Tech as an 18-point favorite. That's the same Ga Tech team that lost at home (as a four-TD favorite) to The Citadel on Sep 14, an FCS team. The Hurricanes visit Pittsburgh on Saturday to face a surging Panthers team which has rebounded from a season-opening 30-14 home loss to Virginia. Pitt has won FIVE of six since that defeat, falling only 17-10 at Penn St (as a 17-point dog), which is currently the AP's No. 6 team. Pitt has won FOUR in a row since the Penn St loss, going 3-1 ATS.The home team has won THREE straight in this series, after the visitor had won FIVE in a row. Manny Diaz may be in his first season as Miami's head coach but he already finds himself on the proverbial "hot seat," after last weekend's 28-21 overtime loss to a Georgia Tech. "I’ll take the negativity. I’m responsible for it, and I’ll accept it,” Diaz said Monday in a press conference. "And it sucks that we’re having to go through this. No one’s more disappointed in our record than I am. But I am also as confident as ever that this team will continue to stick together and this team will continue to fight for one another. And the results are going to come." QB Perry completed 16-of-28 passes for 188 yards and two TDs to go along with a rushing score last Saturday but both he and freshman Jarren Williams, who beat out Perry for the starting job in fall camp, are nursing shoulder injuries and it's uncertain who will start Saturday. The passing game is NOT Miami's biggest concern, as the two QBs have combined to average 279.6 YPG through the air (29th). However, the running games adds little help, averaging 131.0 YPG (102nd) on 4.1 YPC. The defensive numbers look good (20.4 PPG ranks 29th and 298.3 YPG ranks 19th) but the bottom line is that Minmi is 3-4 overall, including 1-3 in the ACC. Meanwhile, Pitt is 2-1 in the ACC Coastal, trailing only 3-1 Virginia. The head-to-head loss to the Cavs could cost Pitt in the end but the Panthers have set their sights on a second straight Atlantic Coast Conference Coastal Division title. Pitt upset UCF 35-34 (as a 9-point home dog) back on Sep 21 plus its last two games has won ACC contests 33-30 over Duke and 27-0 over Syracuse, BOTH on the road! Pittsburgh raised its FBS-best sack total to 36 with nine against Syracuse, while QB Kenny Pickett passed for 232 yards and two touchdowns in last Friday's 27-20 win. Like Miami, Pitt has moved the ball through the air (270.3 YPG ranks 36th) but Pitt's running game is even worse than Miami's, averaging 120.6 YPG (109th) on just 3.4 YPC. Pitt's D pretty much matches Miami's, allowing 22.1 PPG (41st) on 302.9 YPG (21st). A victory over the Hurricanes would give Pitt five consecutive wins for the first time since 2009, when Dave Wannstedt's Panthers reeled off six straight. As for Miami, it is proving just as unreliable for Manny Diaz as it was for Mark Richt (FYI...Diaz served on Richt's staff). I noted above that Pitt won the ACC Coastal title last season but will add that the Panthers will NOT forget the 'Canes trouncing them 24-3 in Miami on Nov 24. That was Pitt's final game of the regular season and it came AFTER Pitt had already clinched a spot in the ACC championship game. The last time Miami visited Pittsburgh (in 2017's regular-season finale), it was ranked No. 2 in the country but lost 24-14 in Pickett's first start. Pittsburgh is a team in which the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, while with Miami, it's just the opposite. Pitt has lost to Penn St just 17-10 (Nittany Lions are averaging 40.0 PPG) and beat UCF, ending that team's 27-game regular season winning streak. It's Homecoming for Pitt and I expect the Panthers to roll. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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10-19-19 | Tulane v. Memphis -3.5 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Memphis at 7:00 ET. A pair of 5-1 teams square off Saturday night in Memphis, as the Tulane Green Wave visit the Memphis Tigers. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave are well on their way to a second straight winning season, losing only on the road at now-No. 11 Auburn 24-6 back on Sep 7. When Tommy West took over Memphis in 2001, the school had only been to one bowl in its history (Pasadena Bowl in 1971). West took the Tigers to five bowls but was fired after a 2-10 season in 2011. Larry Porter's two-year tenure as a 3-21 'nightmare,' as was Justin Fuente's first two years with Memphis. Fuente went 7-17 in 2012 and 2013 but led Memphis to a 10-3 season in 2014 (Miami Beach Bowl win) and then to a 9-3 season in 2015 (left for Va Tech before the bowl game). Mike Norvell enters his fourth season, off three bowl appearances, although the Tigers have lost all three. Memphis opened the 2019 season 5-0 and entered last week's game at Temple ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll. However, the Tigers lost 30-28, as a 3 1/2-point favorite. Both schools play in the AAC-West, where Tulane is tied with SMU at 2-0 and Memphis is tied with Navy at 1-1. Tulane is led by its No.4-ranked rushing game, which averages 288.0 YPG. The Green Wave have great depth at RB but Dauphine leads the way with 364 yards on a WHOPPING 11.0 YPC! Overall, the offense is averaging 39.2 PPG (16th) on 496.3 YPG (13th). The defense has played well, allowing 19.2 PPG (26th) on 326.3 YPG (32nd). Temple has an edge at the QB position with Brady White (69.9% with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs) plus RB Gainwell has run for 726 yards on 7.6 YPC with seven TDs. The offense almost matches Tulane in averaging 37.8 PPG (21st) on 466.22 YPG (27th).The defense is good, allowing 21.0 PPG (38th) on 347.2 YPG (44th). Tulane comes in on a four-game winning streak (SU & ATS) but the Green Wave face THREE tough road games over their next four league contests, Saturday at Memphis, at Navy on Oct 26 and at Temple on Nov 16. Memphis has been tough to beat at home since the beginning of 2014, going 31-5 SU. Expect the Tigers to bounce back off their first loss of 2019 with a "comfortable" home win(meaning a cover!) in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Big-12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 4:00 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Rhule has Baylor off to a 6-0 start and the Bears are currently in the AP poll. Baylor is off to a 3-0 start in the Big 12 but have been VERY lucky. The Bears blew a 20-0 lead in their Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining for the win.The Bears made it EIGHT straight wins dating to 2018 last Saturday but were again fortunate after benefiting greatly from a false start call in their 33-30 double-overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Bears drove 97 yards to get the tying FG on the final play of regulation (Mayers came through again) and then won it with a TD in the 2nd OT. Mike Gundy is in his 15th season at Oklahoma St and this is clearly NOT one of his better teams. The Cowboys are 4-2 (1-2 in Big 12 play). OSU opened 3-0 but has lost TWO of its last three games. The Cowboys lost a competitive 36-30 decision at Texas (as a 7-point dog) on Sep 21 for their first loss of the season, then beat Kan St 26-13 at home, before losing 45-35 at Texas Tech on Oct 5th as a 9-point road favorite. Baylor had its hands full with Texas Tech last Saturday at home, as junior QB Charlie Brewer threw his first three interceptions of the season. However, he ran for three TDs, including one in overtime. He's completing 65.4% with 11 TDs and 3 INTs, as Baylor ranks 34th in the nation with 276.3 YPG passing. The running game is solid (199.2 YPG on 5.6 YPC), helping Baylor average 37.8 PPG (20th). The Baylor D is solid, allowing 17.8 PPG (17th). Spencer Sanders (63.3 percent, 1,333 yards, 10 TDs, eight INTs) needs only 296 yards to break the freshmen school record for passing yards in a season .However, he hardly seems in the same class as OSU's last two QBs, Cornelius and Rudolph, who threw for a combined 97 TDs with just 26 INTs the previous three seasons. However, sophomore RB Chuba Hubbard has more rushing yards than any player in the nation, checking in with 1,094 on 6.8 YPC with 13 TDs. OSU ranks 7th in the nation with 279.0 YPG on the ground (5.6 YPC), helping them average 39.8 PPG (11th). The defense is a worry though, allowing 27.5 PPG (71st). Noting all of the above, Baylor's first three wins of 2019 came over FCS SF Austin (1-5), UTSA (2-4) and Rice (0-6) plus the Bears have been extremely fortunate to win TWO of their three Big-12 contests (see above). Oklahoma St has had a week to stew after it was ambushed at Lubbock on Oct 5 and returns to Stillwater for its Homecoming Game. What's more, the Cowboys will surely remember Baylor beating them 35-31 last season in Waco on a 6-yard TD pass to with SEVEN seconds remaining in the game. REVENGE works and Baylor's eight-game winning streak (6-0 start in 2019), ends! Good luck...Larry |
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10-19-19 | Oregon v. Washington +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Washington at 3:30 ET. Oregon opened the season No. 11 in the AP poll and met No. 16 Auburn in its season opener on Aug 31 in Arlington, Tx.. The Ducks led 21-6 late in the third quarter but saw Auburn score the game's final three TDs for a 27-21 win. The game-winner for Auburn came on a 26-yard TD pass with just NINE seconds remaining in the game. As the old saying goes, "Don't get mad, get even." Mario Cristobal's team has done just that, winning FIVE in a row (including a 3-0 start in Pac-12 play) and have outscored the opposition on average, 39.0-to-5.0 PPG. That's right, Oregon has allowed just 25 points in its five-game winning streak, holding five consecutive opponents to single-digit point totals for the first time since 1958. However, the Ducks now must visit their border rival the Washington Huskies. Washington is off a 51-27 blowout of Arizona, but the 5-2 Huskies are just 2-2 in Pac-12 play. Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but come into this contest having just climbed back into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday. Oregon's senior QB (Justin Herbert) is a likely top-five NFL draft pick. He completing 69.1% with 17 TDs and just one INT and has thrown a TD pass in 34 consecutive games, the longest streak in the nation, He's protected by a veteran offensive line that also gives Oregon a solid running game (176.8 YPG ranks 56th). Oregon is averaging 36.0 PPG on 461.0 YPG, ranking 30th in both categories. As noted above, the defense is spectacular, allowing 8.7 PPG (3rd) on 267.7 YPG (8th). Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's not in Herbert's class but he's completing 66.0% with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of which whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (522 RY / 5.8 YPC / 6 TDs) which averages 179.1 YPG (53rd). Washington is averaging 36.4 PPG (29th) and most teams would be happy allowing 19.6 PPG (28th) on 363.6 YPG (50th) but in this case, the Huskies' D is being compared to the Ducks'. Both schools play in the Pac-12 North, so Oregon can all but clinch the title here with a win. The Oregon D is 'nasty' (has allowed just one TD over its opponents' last 63 drives while also forcing 21 three-and-outs during that span) but winning at Husky Stadium will NOT be easy. What's more, Washington is a home dog for the first time since 2015. From 2016 through 2019, Washington has played 25 home games, going 23-2 SU. The Huskies lost to USC at home in 2016 and had won 15 straight home games before losing 20-19 to Cal on Sep 7. The Cal game was delayed more than 2 1/2 hours by severe weather, with the Bears winning on a FG with EIGHT seconds left. I'm saying the home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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10-19-19 | Southern Miss v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* play is on La Tech at 3:30 ET. Southern Miss heads to Ruston, La on Saturday to take on La Tech in a C-USA action. The two schools are both 2-0 in league play with the Golden Eagles sitting at 4-2 on the season and the Bulldogs checking in at 5-1. Southern Miss saw a three-year bowl streak end in 2018 (went just 6-5) but is hoping to get back to 'bowling' in 2019. Fact is, the team's two losses this season have come on the road against two SEC schools, Miss St and Alabama. The Golden Eagles come into this contest off back-to-back home wins,31-13 over UTEP and 45-27 over North Texas. As for La Tech, the Bulldogs opened the 2019 season with a 45-14 loss at Texas but have since won FIVE in a row. Southern Miss is led by QB Jack Abraham who has completed almost 71.6% of his passes for 1,936 yards, with 12 TD’s and four INTs. The Golden Eagles rank 6th in passing (331.2 YPG) but the team's leading rusher has just 279 yards and is averaging a woeful 113.5 YPG on the ground (115th). That said, Southern Miss is averaging 30.5 PPG (57th). The defense is allowing 29.8 PPG (91st) on 388.2 YPG (66th). La Tech QB J’Mar Smith threw three TD passes and RB Justin Henderson ran for three first-quarter TDs to power Louisiana Tech to a 69-21 victory over Massachusetts last Saturday. Smith is completing 63.8% for 1,557 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs on the season. Henderson has 478 yards rushing, while averaging a healthy 8.2 YPC (has eight TDs). Tech's offense is averaging 34.0 PPG (39th) on 467.3 YPG (25th). On the defensive side of the ball, despite allowing 45 points at Texas, La Tech checks into this game allowing a modest 23.0 PPG (45th). The winner of this one takes a big step towards representing the West in C-USA's title game and I'm "all over" La Tech. The Bulldogs come in on a five-game winning streak and will surely remember therir bitter losses to the Golden Eagles the last two seasons. Southern Miss eked out a 21-20 win at home in 2018 and in 2017, won here in Ruston 34-27 in two OTs. Expect the Bulldogs to "get it right' this time around. Good luck...Larry |
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10-19-19 | Florida -5 v. South Carolina | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Florida at 12:00 ET. Dan Mullen took over at Florida for the beginning of the 2018 season and revitalized an offense that had been dormant the previous three seasons. The Gators averaged 35.0 PPG in 2018, after averaging just 23.2, 23.9 and 22.1 the previous three seasons. Florida went 10-3 last year and its dominating 41-15 win over Michigan in the Peach Bowl gave them a final AP ranking of 7th (tied with Georgia). Florida opened the 2019 season ranked 8th in the AP's preseason poll and and after a 6-0 start, was ranked No. 7 heading into a showdown with No. 5 LSU in Baton Rogue. The Gators lost 42-28 at LSU last Saturday but the games was MUCH closer than the final score. Florida now heads to Columbia, SC to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks, whose head coach is Will Muschamp. Muschamp was Florida's head coach from 2011 through 2014, going a disappointing 28-21, before being fired before the team played its 2014 bowl game. He got the South Carolina job in 2016 and in his first three seasons, had led the Gamecocks to a modest 22-17 record (three bowls but just one win). South Carolina opened the 2019 season 1-3 but then won 24-7 at home to Kentucky on Sep 28 before pulling off what has to be biggest upset of the 2019 college football season to-date last Saturday. The Gamecocks went toe-to-toe in Athens with then-No. 3 Georgia on Oct 12, eventually winning 20-17 in double overtime. The Gators lost starting QB Franks in the season's third game but Kyle Trask came in to finish off a 29-21 win at Kentucky in that contest and in four starts, has completed 68.4% with 10 TDs and just three INTs. Trask threw for a career-high 310 yards and three touchdowns at LSU but head coach Dan Mullen was concerned about the Gators' inability to put points on the board in their last four drives, including two fourth-quarter trips inside LSU's 20-yard line. Trask threw a costly end-zone interception with about 7 1/2 minutes left in the game, with Florida trailing only 35-28. After blown coverage gave up a 54-yard TD pass for LSU, the Gators again drove the length of the field, only to be stopped on four straight plays with a 1st-and-goal at the LSU two-yard-line! South Carolina' offense didn't score much against Georgia and it didn't help that starting QB Ryan Hilinski (15-20 but for just 116 yds) was lost to a knee injury. He was replaced by Dakereon Joyner, who completed six of 12 passes for only 39 yards and also rushed six times for 28 yards in relief. However, it was the South Carolina D which turned in a heroic effort with THREE interceptions and one fumble recovery. CB Israel Mukuamu accounted for all three of the 'picks,' returning one 53 yards for a touchdown to become the first Gamecock with three interceptions in a game since 1988. Hilinski is expected to be available but note that if we "take away" South Carolina's 72-point output against Charleston Southern (anyone know that school had a FB team?), the Gamecocks are averaging only 20.2 PPG in their other five contests. Yes, the Florida D allowed 42 points on 511 yards to LSU but despite that, the Gators rank 10th in the nation by allowing only 14.1 PPG on 314.2 YPG (22nd). The offense has not been hurt by Franks' injury, as the Gators enter averaging 31.7 PPG (53rd) on 2429.3 YPG (50th). This is a classic "let-down" spot for South Carolina and classic "bounce-back" spot for Florida, which gets next week off before its meeting with Georgia in Jacksonville on Nov 2. A stumble here and the Gators' could find themselves 6-3, after a 6-0 start. After his "biggest" win at South Carolina, the LAST team Muschamp wanted to see this Saturday (other than Alabama), was Florida coming off a loss. Lay the points with the road team. Good luck...Larry |
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10-18-19 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -5.5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Lights G.O.M. is on FAU at 6:30 ET. Oakland Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making him the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946) at 31. However, he was gone before the end of his second season, after posting a 5-15 record. Trouble and controversy have followed Kiffin ever since. He had a one-year stay as Tennessee's head coach and spent three-plus seasons at USC, before landing a job as Nick Saban's OC from 2014-16. That ended badly as well and Kiffin landed at FAU and in his first season (2017) went 11-3 with a bowl win (Owls had come off three straight 3-9 seasons). However, FAU was just 5-7 last season and opened 2019 with a 45-21 loss at Ohio St and a 48-14 home loss to UCF. Kiffin has turned things around quickly though, winning FOUR in a while averaging 39.0 PPG. 4-2 FAU welcomes 3-3 Marshall to Boca Raton for a Friday game in C-USA play. FAU (2-0) and Marshall (1-1) were the East's two-favorites in the preseason but Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd are struggling in 2019, going 1-5 ATS. The team's lone ATS win came way back on Sep 6, when Marshall (+14) lost 14-7 at Boise St. QB Green is struggling, with just two TD passes in his last three games, passing for only 131 and 175 yards in two of those three contests. Marshall has lost both road games this season, at Boise St (see above) and 24-13 at MTSU on Oct 5. The game at MTSU is noteworthy, as Marshall scored just 13 points on a defense allowing 32.7 PPG (107th) on 494.7 YPG (126th). FAU just beat MTSU 28-13 at home last Saturday, despite playing its worst offensive game since being outclassed by Ohio St and UCF to open the 2019 season. However, while Marshall's QB is struggling, FAU's Robinson has thrown for 1,557 yards with 13 TDs and just two INTs. If freshman RB Davidson (149 rushing yards v. MTSU) continues to develop, FAU may just be the team to beat in the East (Western Ky has opened 3-0 and hosts FAU on Nov 2). Getting back to the current situation, the Owls are 13-4 SU at home under Kiffin (13 wins have come by an average of 24.6 PPG) and this modest impost should be no problem against a Marshall team which has scored just 20 points in its only two road games of 2019. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -118 | 35 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on Iowa at 7:30 ET. Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) will take its 12-game winning streak (second to only Clemson's 20 straight wins) and its No. 10 ranking in the current AP poll into Iowa City to take on No. 17 Iowa (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) Saturday night. The Nittany Lions' CFP hopes will likely depend on how they perform during a critcal three- week stretch which begins this Saturday. Penn St will follow this contest with a home date with No. 16 Michigan and then a trip to East Lansing to take on Michigan St. Iowa is likely not seriously thinking o about the CFP but the Hawkeyes have surely NOT tabled hopes of winning the Big Ten West. However, with Wisconsin and Minnesota off to 2-0 stars, Iowa almost HAS to win this one (will play at Wisconsin and then host Minnesota in Nov). Penn State sophomore QB Sean Clifford ranks second among Big Ten passers with 1,443 yards and is third with 12 TD passes (just two INTs in 135 pass attempts). A running-back-by-committee approach (four backs have run for at least 198 yards) is averaging 194.6 YPG (43rd) on 5.4 YPC. Penn St is averaging 47.0 YPPG (5th) on 500.2 YPG (11th). Iowa's offense could not score a TD last week at Michigan, as QB Nate Stanley (who entered the game with eight TD passes and zero INTs), threw three INTs. Stanley, who needs just one TD pass to move into a tie for second in school history, is unlikely to forget that he completed only 18-of-49 passes while throwing two interceptions and getting sacked three times in a 30-24 oss at Penn State last year. However, much like Penn St, Iowa's running game (174.2 YPG on 5.2 YPC) has three players with more than 200 rushing yards. Stanley also has a quartet of receivers all with at least 190 receiving yards. The Nittany Lions have won FIVE straight meetings with the Hawkeyes but note that last season at Penn St, Stanley (who had an awful game / see above) threw a pick at Penn State's goal line with 3:18 left, as the Nittany Lions survived 30-24. The year before (at Iowa), Penn State scored a TD on the game's final play, winning 21-19 on a walk-off TD pass from Trace McSorley. Yes, Penn St has won FIVE in a row but prior to that, the Hawkeyes had won EIGHT of nine in the series, including a last-second 24-23 win in 2008 that knocked Penn State out of the national title chase. Deja vu? Iowa's QB in that 2008 game, Ricky Stanzi, is the team's honorary captain this week. Iowa (especially its defense) will be Penn St's toughest opponent to-date and the Nittany Lions hardly impressed against the team's toughest opponent up to this point. Back on Sep 14, Penn St (-17) barely eked out a 17-10 win against Pittsburgh (was held to just 389 yards). Yes, Penn State's defense is allowing 7.4 PPG (2nd) on 240.4 YPG (4th) but Iowa's D is "right there" with them, allowing just 8.8 PPG (3rd) on 255.0 YPG (5th). Iowa is 14-6-1 ATS a home dog since late 2000 and I'm expecting an OUTRIGHT win in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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10-12-19 | San Jose State v. Nevada -2.5 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on Nevada t 4:00 ET. Nevada began 2019 with a home upset by beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. I guess the best news here is that the Nevada had a bye the first weekend of October. Nevada will welcome San Jose St to Reno on Saturday. The Spartans come in off a 32-21 win over New Mexico, giving them a 3-2 record. That may not seem like a big deal but when one considers the Spartans were 2-11 in 2017 and 1-11 in 2018, it is. QB Josh Love threw for 405 yards in the win over New Mexico and enters this contest completing 61.9% for 1,418 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. However, the Spartans don't have much of a running game, averaging only 105.8 YPG (119th) on a woeful 3.4 YPC. San Jose is scoring 27.6 PPG, while allowing 27.6. Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii. However, the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.8 PPG (115th) on 331.2 YPG (114th). It's true that San Jose St has made some significant strides in 2019 but the Spartans come into this contest just 1-14 SU on the road since the beginning of 2017. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-28 SU since 2005 plus has beaten San Jose St in NINE of the last 10 meetings (note: San Jose hasn’t won SU in Reno since 2000!). At this price, the home team is the play! Good luck...Larry |
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10-12-19 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio -5 | Top | 39-36 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* MAC ATTACK 2 is on Ohio U at 3:30 ET. Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but then lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 21 and entered that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns. The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and opened their MAC schedule at Buffalo last Saturday. The Bobcats and Buffs were tied at 14 and went to OT. Buffalo scored first but missed the PAT. Ohio gave the ball to RB Allison on all five of its plays in overtime and won it 21-20 on his five-yard TD run and a successful PAT, Ohio (2-3 / 1-0 MAC) returns home to host Northern Illinois. The Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seassons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. So far, NOT so good . Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies have lost FOUR in a row, since. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies rank 42nd in passing (266.2 YPG) but QB Ross Bowers is completing just 56.9% with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. The running game stinks, averaging 97.4 YPG (122nd). The defense allows a relatively modest 363.4 YPG (49th) but gives up 28.0 PPG (78th). Ohio OB Nathan Rourke was expecting a big season after passing for 2,431 yards (with 23 TD passes) and rushing for 860 yards (with 15 TDs) in 2018. However, he's got just 250 rushing yards (3 TDs) and 1,012 passing yards (6 TDs) so far in 2019. Ohio's D is allowing 27.6 PPG (74th) on 446.8 YPG (108th). The Bobcats have disappointed so far but they are 1-0 in MAC play and just maybe, last Saturday's OT win is what the team needed to jump-start its MAC season. Northern Illinois in 2019 looks NOTHING like past editions (12 bowls the last 15 seasons) and its lone with has come over Illinois St, an FCS member. NIU is 0-3 on the road, getting outscored on average, 34.3-to-14.3 PPG. Remember, before losing at home to ULL on Sep 21, Ohio had won 10 straight at home, averaging 47.0 PPG. Let's not count out Ohio U just yet in its quest for its first MAC title since 1968,. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +5.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET. The Tigers travel to Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pa) this Saturday to take on fellow AAC rival Temple. The Owls entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six year as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. In Temple's second game of 2019, the Owls upset then-No. 21 Maryland 20-17 (as five-point home dog), one week after the Terps had ripped Syracuse for 63 points. Temple suffered a let down of its own the following Saturday, losing 38-22 at Buffalo, as a two-TD road favorite. However, the Owls have rebounded to beat Georgia Tech (24-2) and East Carolina (27-17) in their last two games, allowing an average of just 316 yards per game in the two victories Memphis QB Brady White threw three TD passes and RB Kenneth Gainwell chipped in 209 rushing yards and two scores in the Tigers' 52-33 win last Saturday. The Memphis offense (39.8 PPG ranks 16th) owns excellent balance, passing for 246.6 YPG (65th) and rushing for 214.4 YPG (32nd). White is completing 71.7% (11-3 ratio) and Gainwell has 620 rushing yards (8.2 YPC and 6 TDs). The defense is allowing 19.2 PPG (27th) on 325.4 YPG (35th). Temple is averaging 29.8 PPG (68th) on 445.2 YPG (35th) but neither QB Russo (58.9% with an 11-6 ratio) nor RB Davis (563 RY / 6.0 YPC / 4 TdD) are quite as good as their Memphis counterparts (While and Gainwell). However, the Temple D is every bit as good, and slightly better than Memphis', allowing 17.2 PPG (19th) on 292.8 YPG (20th). This is a tough spot for Memphis, as QB White will be facing the best D he's seen all year (he under-performed vs Ole Miss out of the SEC), as Temple ranks 3rd in pass efficiency. Temple's Russo has a strong arm and is off his first error-free game of season in the 27-17 win at East Carolina (23-34 for 208 yards with one TD and zero INTs) plus RB Davis ran for 157 yards (6.5 YPC). The Memphis D is in for a test. Temple is 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 33.3-to-10.3 PPG) and checks in 7-1 ATS (88%) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. This Memphis team may be 5-0 and ranked 23rd but it is NOT in the class of that 2017 UCF team. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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10-11-19 | Colorado State -3 v. New Mexico | Top | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Colorado St at 8:00 ET. The 1-5 Colorado State Rams (0-2 in MWC play) travel to Albuquerque to face the 2-3 New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium on Friday night. Former Georgia QB Mike Bobo took over at CSU in 2015, getting his first head coaching job. He led the Rams to three straight 7-6 seasons but each one ended with a bowl loss. The 2018 season was a 'disaster,' as CSU went just 3-9, its worst record since 2011. Clearly, the team's 1-5 start has CSU backers worried. As for New Mexico, Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos have opened the 2019 season 2-3 (0-1 in MWC play) CSU is almost assured of a second straight losing season but the team's 1-5 record is somewhat deceiving. The Rams opened 2019 against in-state rival Colorado of the Pac-12, and following a win over Western Illinois, the Rams have faced the SEC’s Arkansas, 4-1 Toledo, and solid MWC schools Utah State (3-2) and San Diego State (4-1). Starting QB Collin Hill (67.5% & an 8-2 ratio) was lost for the season to a knee injury in the game at Arkansas but back-up Patrick O'Brien rallied the team from a 14-point, first half deficit to tie it at 34-all (Arkansas would win the 4Q, 21-0). However, O'Brien has thrown for 839 yards in his three starts (279.7 YPG). New Mexico got blasted 66-14 at Notre Dame (Welcome Back, Dave) and its lone two wins in 2019 have come at home against Sam Houston State (FSC) and 0-6 New Mexico St (one of three winless teams in 2019). New Mexico owns a solid running game (212.4 YPG ranks 33rd) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 39.6 PPG (126th) on 513.8 YPG (127th). CSU badly needs a win and New Mexico St sets up as the perfect foil. The Rams have beaten the Lobos NINE straight times (average margin of victory being a right at two TDs), including all SEVEN since Davie took over in 2012 (6-1 ATS). Want more? The Lobos are 2-15 SU in MWC game since the start of 2017. There is a reason this 1-5 team is a road favorite! Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* SBC Game of the Month is on ULL at 8:00 ET. The Appalachian State Mountaineers competed in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) from its founding in 1978 to 2013. They won three straight national championships from 2005 to 2007, the first FCS team to do so since the playoffs began in 1978. The school has competed in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Sun Belt Conference since 2014. Appalachian St became the first FCS team to receive votes in the final AP college football poll on January 8, 2008. The Mountaineers became ranked in the AP top-25 poll (at No. 25) on October 21, 2018, for the first time. The 4-0 Mountaineers travel to Louisiana-Lafayette to take on the Ragin’ Cajuns in Sun Belt Conference action on Wednesday. App St is 4-0 and owns the third-longest active winning streak in CFB at 10 in a row, while ULL checks in at 4-1 (both schools are 1-0 in SBC play). This is a rematch of last year's SBC championship game, won by Appalachian State at home, 30-19 (the Mountaineers also won at home in the regular season, 27-17). App St owns a very balanced offense, averaging 204.8 YPG passing and 224.5 YPG rushing (47.0 PPG, 5th-best in the nation). QB Zac Thomas has completed 71.9% for 802 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 14-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to those 10 straight wins! The defense allows 420.0 YPG (94th) and 29.0 PPG (86th) but when a team is scoring 47.0 PPG, that can be overlooked. The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 44,4 4 PPG (9th-best), led by the nation's top rushing offense. ULL averages 314.0 YPG on a WHOPPING 7.3 YPC. It has two VERY dangerous backs, Ragas (548 yards / 9.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mitchell (402 yards / 6.0 YPC / 9 TDs). The defense allows a more modest 24.1 PPG (41st) and features a very athletic secondary. ULL opened the season by losing 38-28 to Miss St in the Superdome (covered as a 19-point dog) but has since gone 4-0 SU & ATS. Yes, ULL has lost all six meetings with App St since 2014 (including two last season) but the matchups favor them in this one. ULL’s athletic secondary ranks 13th nationally in pass defense efficiency and Appalachian State QB Zac Thomas could (should) have problems. App State’s defense hasn’t played well, allowing 109 points its last three games (36.3 PPG), to Charlotte, UNC and Coastal Carolina and overall, ranks 117th in red zone D. The team's rush D will be severely tested by ULL's top-ranked rushing attack. The last time App St lost a league game was Oct 25, 2018 at Georgia Southern (34-14), when the Eagles ran for 277 yards (5.5 YPC). The Ragin' Cajuns are the ONLY school of 130 playing in the FBS to be unbeaten ATS (5-0). Expect ULL to control the ball and clock and finally break through vs Appalachian State, keeping the team's perfect ATS mark in tack. Good luck...Larry |
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10-05-19 | Liberty v. New Mexico State +5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* Under the Radar Rout is on New Mexico St at 8:00 ET. Liberty announced it would start a transition to the FBS in July of 2017. The Flames became a provisional FBS member in 2018 (playing as an Independent) and becomes a full FBS member, including bowl eligibility, in 2019. The Flames went 6-6 in 2018 and after opening 2019 with back-to-back losses, has won THREE in a row. New Mexico St's first season was 1893 and has long been playing as a Division 1 school (now FBS). Current head coach Doug Martin is in his seventh season at Las Cruses and in 2017, led the Aggies to a 7-6 season which included bowl win over UIah St. That marked just NMSU's second winning season since 2000 (2002 team went 7-5). However, the Aggies were just 3-9 last season and have opened this season 0-5. Liberty made a controversial hire before this season naming Hugh Freeze as its head coach. Freeze was ousted at Ole Miss in 2016 and in February 2019, the NCAA punished the Ole Miss football team for the recruiting and academic violations committed under Freeze and a previous head coach. The punishments included a two-year postseason ban, three years of probation, and a four-year ban on some scholarships. As well, 33 games were vacated, or stripped from the record. Freeze's record at Ole Miss, which was 39–25 during his five seasons, now stands officially at 12–25. Libery comes in on a three-game winning streak but winning on the road is a challenge, even vs a poor team like New Mexico St. The Flames went 1-5 SU on the road in 2018, allowing 48.3 PPG. In Liberty's lone road game here in 2019, the Flames lost 35-14 at UL-Lafayette. New Mexico St owns the nation's worst defense, allowing 47.2 PPG (ranking 130th among 130 FBS schools) on 520.4 YPG (128th). However, let me note that just last Saturday, UMass won 37-29 at home against sad-sack Akron, having entered that contest allowing 51.8 PPG on 556.2 YPG (both left them 130th in the nation). The Aggies won't go 0-12 this season and it's noteworthy to mention that just like in 2018, these two schools are playing a home-and-home series in 2019. New Mexico St beat Liberty 49-41 here in Las Cruses last season and then lost a competitive game in Lynchburg 28-21 in the season-finale for both schools. The first meeting in 2018 was on the first Saturday of October (just like this season) and the teams will again meet in Lynchburg Nov 30, capping their respective seasons. In front of a friendly home crowd, expect the Aggies to claim their first (only?) win of 2019 against the Flames. Don't see Liberty winning FOUR is row, especially on the road with its dreadful road record since joining FBS (see above for a reminder). Good luck..Larry |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +21 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 10 m | Show |
My NCAAF 9* Underdog of the Month is on Michigan St at 7:30 ET. No. 4 Ohio State (5-0 / 2-0 Big Ten) won its 10th consecutive game at Nebraska last week, opening a 38-0 lead in the first half on the way to a 48-7 victory. That marked the team's FOURTH consecutive win of least 40 points or more, believed to be tied for the longest such streak by a Big Ten team since World War I. QB Justin Fields (16-0 ratio plus 7 rush TDs) and RB Dobbins (654 YR / 7.1 YPFC / 5 TDs) lead an offense averaging 52.4 PPG (3rd) on 536.2 YPG (8th). As for the defense, the Buckeyes are allowing just 8.6 PPG (2nd) on 224.2 YPG (2nd). The Michigan St Spartans (4-1 / 2-0 Big Ten) invade Columbus at No. 25 in the latest AP poll for the second straight week, after a 40-31 home win over Indiana. QB Brian Lewerke (1,325 yards with a 10-1 ratio) leads the Big Ten in passing yards. The Spartans' lone loss came 10-7 at home to ASU but MSU is still averaging 31.4 PPG. The defensive numbers would look great, 15.0 PPG (14th) on 254.4 YPG (7th), if NOT compared against Ohio State's Ohio State has beaten Michigan St the last three times the teams have met but the Spartans D will be the best one QB Fields has seen (remember, this is just his sixth start). Many (most?) have already punched Ohio St.’s ticket to the CFP but let's note that Ohio State has lost only FIVE Big Ten games since 2012 and TWO of those have come against Michigan State, in the 2013 Big Ten championship game and at Columbus in 2015. The Spartans can get to the QB (16-4 sack edge in 2019),and weren’t sacked in last years meeting (26-6 Ohio St win at East Lansing). I'll close by pointing out that the Spartans held the Buckeyes to just 2.7 YPC in that loss, as well to a season-low 237 total yards. Take the HUGE points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -1 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* "Best Bet" MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 3:30 ET. Western Michigan visits the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio on Saturday, where the Rockets will host the Broncos in MAC play. Western Michigan improved to 3-2 on the season (1-0 in the MAC) with a 31-15 victory over Central Michigan last Saturday at home. This marks the Broncos' conference road opener, while for 3-1 Toledo, it's the team's conference opener. Both schools finished with identical 7-6 records in 2018 (both were also 5-3 in MAC play) but Toledo has dominated the series recently, winning SEVEN of the last nine meetings. PJ Fleck made a 'pit stop' in Kalamazoo from 2013-16 and his final team 'rowed the boat' to a perfect 13-0 record, before falling 24-16 to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl. Fleck used that season to land the job at Minnesota and Tim Lester has gone 13-12 in his first two years at the school (is currently 16-14). QB Jon Wassink (63.1% / 1,466 yards / 10-4 ratio) leads an offense averaging 37.2 PPG (27th) but WMU has NOT been competitive in its two road games in 2019, losing 51-17 at Mich St and 52-33 at Syracuse. OK, Toledo is not exactly Mich St (may not even be Syracuse) but the Rockets own a very balanced offense (207.8 YPG passing and 262.2 YPG rushing) that has them 28th in total offense (470.0 YPG) and 41st in scoring (34.5 PPG) That running game ranks 10th in the nation and while the defense is giving up too many yards, the Rockets are holding opponents to a decent 23.5 PPG (51st). Toledo has opened 2-0 at home and that's hardly news. The Rockets entered the 2019 season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips), while going 43-12 SU at home (now 45-12 with this year's two home victories). As noted above, Toledo has won SEVEN of the last nine meetings with Western Michigan, with both losses coming when Fleck was rowing the boat for WMU (in 2015 and 2016). Fleck's now a Golden Gopher and these last two seasons, Toledo has won 37-10 and 51-24 (at WMU!). No reason at all for the Rockets to NOT be a bigger favorite here. Good luck...Larry |
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10-05-19 | Baylor v. Kansas State -1 | Top | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 5 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Game of the Week is on Kansas St at 3:30 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Things are looking up for Baylor in 2019, as the Bears have opened 4-0. Baylor squandered a 20-0 lead Saturday in its Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining to keep the Bears perfect with a 23-21 win. Meanwhile, Kansas State, wasn’t so fortunate, losing 26-13 at Oklahoma State last Saturday in its Big 12 opener after a 3-0 start. “The thing about it is I think you can learn a lot more from a loss than you do with a win,” Wildcats first-year head coach Chris Klieman said Monday on the Big 12 coaches teleconference. “We’re going to learn an awful lot from this.” Baylor QB Charlie Brewer threw for a season-high 307 yards and passed for three TDs in the win over Iowa St. He's completing 66.4% for 972 yards with 10 TDs and not a single INT. He's supported by a solid running game, averaging 216.0 YPG (31st), as the Bears head to Manhattan averaging 40.8 PPG (15th). The defense has done its job as well, allowing 16.2 PPG (20th) on 297.5 YPG (24th). The Wildcats also possess one of the Big 12’s top defenses, ranking 17th in the nation in allowing 16.0 PPG on 323.5 YPG (35th), despite being gashed for 526 total yards by Okla St. I guess the good news would be, KSU held the Cowboys to a season-low 26 points. Baylor's 4-0 start is its best since beginning 2016 with six straight wins and will come to Manhattan as one of 18 undefeated FBS teams. However, Baylor has had problems covering the number in this matchup, going 1-4 ATS in the last five at Kansas St and 3-7 the last 10 meetings, overall. Baylor's first three wins of 2019 have come over FCS SF Austin (1-4), UTSA (1-3) and Rice (0-5) plus the Bears were VERY lucky to escape last Saturday vs Iowa St. I don't expect the Bears to be so lucky here in Manhattan, where the Wildcats have covered SIX of their last seven. Baylor falls from the ranks of the unbeaten in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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10-05-19 | TCU v. Iowa State -3 | Top | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 55 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Iowa State at 12:00 ET. TCU still hasn't decided on a starting QB, as the Horned Frogs used three different QBs while rolling up 625 yards in last week's 51-14 win over Kansas. True freshman starter Max Duggan, fifth-year senior Alex Delton (who started the first two games of the season) and junior Mike Collins all seeing action in the second half. Head coach Gary Patterson wouldn't tip his hand as to who his starter would be against the Cyclones but whoever gets the start, will have the benefit of a rushing attack averaging 275.2 YPG (8th). The 3-1 Horned Frogs visit Ames on Saturday looking to open 2-0 in the Big 12. Iowa St is 2-2 but 0-1 in the Big 12 and unlike TCU, is having all sorts of trouble running the ball, averaging 152.2 YPG (76th) on the season, after gaining only 63 yards (2.3 YPC) on the ground in last Saturday's 23-21 loss at Baylor. Duggan is just the second true freshman to start at QB during the 19-season head coaching tenure of Gary Patterson and completed 8-of-11 passes for 100 yards and two TDs against the Jayhawks ,while Delton, a Kansas State transfer, was 10-of-15 for 186 yards and also rushed for 21 yards. Both are expected to see significant snaps. Senior RB Darius Anderson is having a breakout year, rushing for 483 yards (8.2 YPC) with five TDs. His best previous season at TCU was in 2017, when he gained 768 yards for the entire year. Patterson's teams typically play good D and this year's squad is holding opponents to 18.8 PPG (30th) on 246.0 YPG (4th). Iowa St may have issues running the ball (the Cyclones have rotated five different RBs) but QB Brock Purdy ranks fourth nationally in total offense (358.0 YPG) and seventh in the nation in passing yards (332.8 YPG), coming in with back-to-back 300-yard passing games. Iowa St was held to just 17 points by Iowa but is still averaging 34.8 PPG (38th) and the defense is allowing a modest 21.8 PPG (45th). Iowa St's two losses are to Iowa and Baylor (both are 4-0) and have come by a total of just THREE points. The Cyclones fell behind 20-0 at Baylor last Saturday but rallied back with 21 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a one-point lead with 3:45 remaining However, ISU lost on a 38-yard field goal with just 21 seconds left. The Iowa loss was not any easier to take, as the Cyclones led 14-6 late in the third quarter, before closing 18-17 on a FG with just under five minutes left. Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 last year and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl. He's 2-2 this year, with those two "close losses." The Cyclones are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games, losing in 2018 to then-No. 5 Oklahoma (ATS win) and to current No. 14 Iowa in 2019 (another ATS win). The Cyclones have owned the month of October vs Big 12 opponents (home or away) since 2017, going a PERFECT 7-0 SU & ATS. Make that 8-0! Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-19 | Central Florida -3.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -101 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Lights Play (AAC Game of the Month) is on UCF at 8:00 ET. The 3-1 Cincinnati Bearcats will play their AAC opener Friday night when they welcome 4-1 UCF to Nippert Stadium. UCF is ranked 18th in the latest AP poll and is coming off a 56-21 rout of Connecticut to open its AAC slate. The Knights rebounded from their first loss in 26 regular-season games (35-34 at Pittsburgh on Sep 22), by registering 607 yards of total offense. Cincinnati is coming off it best game of 2019, dominating both sides of the ball in a 52-14 rout at Marshall on Sep 28. The Bearcats out-gained the Thundering Herd 525-256, as they kept Marshall off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter. Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel threw for three TDs against UConn and after five games has completed 61.7% for 1,338 yards with a 14-2 ratio. UCF's running game adds excellent balance to an offense averaging 49.0 PPG (6th) on 568.6 YPG (2nd). Three RBs have more than 250 yards rushing, led by McCrae (323 YR / 6.2 YPC) and Killins (310 YR / 7.4 YPC). When a team's offense is averaging seven TDs per game, a defense allowing 19.4 PPG (33rd) on 324.8 YPG (36th) is more than adequate. Cincy's sophomore QB Desmond Ridder was named AAC Offensive Player of the Week with his four TD passes against Marshall. Ridder has a pair of reliable receivers in WR Alec Pierce (14 receptions, 277 yards, TD) and TE Josiah Deguara (12 catches, 183 yards, 3 TDs),. The running agme is decent (186.5 YPG ranks 52nd) and despite getting shutout 42-0 by Ohio St, Cincy is averaging 27.8 PPG (80th). The Cincy D is pretty good, holding the team's three opponents (not named Ohio St) to just 13.7 PPG Luke Fickell was appointed head coach at Ohio St when Jim Tressel was forced out in 2011 but the next year was introduced as Urban Meyer's co-defensive coordinator. He took the Cincy job in 2017 and went just 4-8. However, he went 11-2 last season, including a 35-31 Military Bowl win over Va Tech. His Bearcats take a NINE-game home winning streak into this contest but is beating a UCF a 'bridge too far?' My bet says Y-E-S! The Knights have scored 30 points or more in 32 straight games and have won 19 straight AAC games, with the average margin of victory checking in at 21.0 PPG (just ONE win has had a margin of less than seven points). These schools have met three times in the Frost/Heupel era (2016-18), with UCF winning 24-3, 51-23 (game was cut short because of thunderstorms) and 38-13. Deja vu! Good luck...Larry |
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09-28-19 | UCLA v. Arizona -6 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 34 m | Show | |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Arizona at 10:30 ET. Anyone reading this will surely have heard that UCLA scored 50 points in the second half at then-No. 19 Washington State while rallying from a 49-17 deficit for earn its first victory of the season, 67-63. Sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a school-record 564 yards of total offense, including 507 yards passing (5 TDs) and 57 rushing yards (2 TDs). 1-3 UCLA is back on the road again this Saturday night, when it travels to Tucson to take on the 2-1 Arizona Wildcats.Arizona, which lost to UCLA 31-30 last season at the Rose Bowl minus starting QB Khalil Tate, has bounced back from a season-opening 45-38 loss at Hawaii with double-digit wins over both Northern Arizona (65-41) and Texas Tech (28-14). UCLA came to Pullman last week 0-3 and was well on its way to an 0-4 start (Bruins opened 0-5 in 2018) before its incredible comeback. DTR (as UCLA's QB is known) had thrown for just 556 yards with four TDs and four INTs in the Bruins 0-3 start but picked apart a three-man Washington State pass rush in the second half when he threw for 322 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown pass with 1:07 to play for the game-winning TD. UCLA's win was incredible but the Bruins did allow Washington St to score 63 points on a WHOPPING 720 yards, with QB Gordon accounting for 570 passing yards and nine TD passes. The Bruins' 'survived' by forcing SIX turnovers with linebacker Josh Woods leading the way an interception and two fumble recoveries, including one with 59 seconds left to seal the win. Arizona opened the season in 'paradise' (otherwise known as Hawaii) but despite gaining 539 yards and forcing SIX Hawaii turners, got upset 45-38 (Wildcats were favored by 10.5 points). However, Arizona 'hung' 65 points against Northern Arizona and then played an excellent all-around game in beating Texas Tech 28-14 as a two-point home dog. QB Tate is healthy and primed for a HUGE senior season. He's passed for 684 yards in three games (6 TDs) and run for 238 yards (7.4 YPC) with two TDs. Tate surpassed the 5,000-yard mark in career passing (5,048) and the 2,000-yard career rushing mark (2,110) in the win over Texas Tech, joining Oregon's Marcus Mariota as the only QBs in conference history to accomplish that feat. Tate had a school-record 84-yard touchdown run against the Red Raiders and also engineered a 99-yard, 13-play drive that chewed up over seven minutes for the game-clinching TD. This sets up as a classic "let down" spot for the Bruins, plus Arizona has the advantage of not only coming in off a bye week but the Wildcats are playing with revenge from last year's one-point loss (again, Tate missed that contest). let's not forget that UCLA entered the 2019 season just 2-15 SU in road games the previous three seasons and began 20 19 with a 24-14 loss at Cincinnati. So, heading into last Saturday's game at Washington St, the Bruins were 2-17 SU in games away from the Rose Bowl (UCLA's home field), including a 35-17 Cactus Bowl loss to Kansas St in 2017. Down 49-17 in the third quarter, UCLA rallied to win. Hard to see UCLA not coming into this game 'flat.' Arizona's running game ranks 5th in the nation at 307.7 YPG (6,6 YPC), while UCLA's ranks 124th at 96.0 YPG (2.7 YPC). I want Tate over DTR plus UCLA's defense, which allows 530.2 YPG (125th) and 39.5 PPG (122nd) will NOT get six TOs in this one to save them. UCLA win streak ends at ONE in a row. Wildcats roll. Good luck...Larry |
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09-28-19 | Hawaii v. Nevada -1.5 | Top | 54-3 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. A pair of 3-1 schools square off Saturday night, when the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Hawaii opened the season with a 45-38 home upset of Arizona (Hawaii was a 10 1/2-point dog), then added home wins over Oregon St and Central Arkansas, sandwiched around a 52-20 loss at Washington. QB Cole McDonald leads a passing game which ranks 6th in the nation (352.8 YPG) and while he has thrown 13 TDs, he's also been picked off NINE times. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 121.0 YPPG, which ranks 104th in the nation. Hawaii's D has allowed an average of more than 30 PPG in FIVE of the last six seasons and enters this contest allowing 33.5 PPG. That ranks 106th in the nation, as does the 439.5 YPG the defense allows, overall. Nevada began 2019 with a home upset as well, beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. Nevada's lone loss so far came in its second game, 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn (a loss was understandable but the 71-point margin was admittedly, a bit much). The Wolf Pack come into this contest off back-to-back wins, including a 37-21 road win at UTEP. Nevada has a more balanced offense than Hawaii but is averaging a modest 24.0 PPG (100th). The defensive numbers are skewered due to the Oregon game but I will note that Nevada is allowing 50 YPG less than Hawaii (389.5 per game) on the season. This marks the MWC opener for both teams and history does play a HUGE role in my taking Nevada, especially at this short price. The "June Jones era" is a thing of past. He took Hawaii to SIX bowls in his nine seasons (1999-2007), including a Sugar Bowl (BCS Bowl) at the end of the 2006 season, when Hawaii went 12-0 in the regular season (got crushed by Georgia, 41-10). Hawaii's had just TWO winning seasons in the 11 years since Jones left and the Rainbows Warriors have been regular underachievers on the road. Including this season's blowout loss at Washington, Hawaii enters this contest 18-49 SU on the road in the 11-plus seasons since Jones left. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-27 SU since 2005. Nevada has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with Hawaii, including all FIVE at home with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. At this price, I have to LOVE Nevada! Good luck...Larry |
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09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -2.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Old Dominion at 6:00 ET. The 2-2 East Carolina Pirates and the 1-2 Old Dominion Monarchs meet Saturday in Norfolk, Va for a non-conference game for both teams. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and the Pirates opened the season with a 34-6 loss at NC State, getting outgained 505-to-269 in yards. A 49-9 home win over Gardner Webb hardly proved much much and ECU then lost at Navy on Sep 14, 42-10 (got outgained 468-to-222 yards). ECU evened its record at 2-2 last Saturday with a 19-7 home win over William and Mary. ODU looks to even its record this Saturday, after opening the season with an unimpressive 24-21 win over Norfolk St but then dropping two in a row. However, the Monarchs have "shown well" in their two losses. ODU 'hung' with Va Tech at Blacksburg, losing 31-17 as a 30-point underdog. Last Saturday at UVa, ODU jumped out to a 17-0 lead over the Cavs (UVa came into the game ranked 21st in the AP poll), before losing just 28-17 (as a 27-point underdog). East Carolina does come from the tougher conference (AAC vs C-USA) but the Pirates two wins this season have come at home against FCS teams, while their two road games against FBS teams have seen them get outscored 76-16 and outgained, 973-to-491. OK, Old Dominion is not in the class of NC State (or even Navy) but I noted above just how well the Monarchs played at Va Tech and UVa. This team deserves get a VERY beatable opponent here at home, after those two excellent efforts. ECU sure "fits the ball," as the Pirates are 1-17 SU since 2016 on the road, going 3-15 ATS (which is an 83% "go-against). Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +5 v. California | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 64 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Arizona St at 10:30 ET. California got off to its third consecutive 3-0 start in 2019 and entered the AP top-25 on Sep 15 at No. 23. Cal visited Oxford last Saturday and secured a 28-20 road victory over Ole Miss with a last-second stop at the goal line plus received a breakout performance by QB Chase Garbers, who threw for four TDs and finished 23-of-35 for 357 yards in the air. Cal's win saw them make the biggest 'leap' of any school in the new AP poll (Sep 22), jumping from No. 23 to No. 15. Cal welcomes Arizona State to Berkeley Friday night. The Sun Devils upset then-No. 18 Michigan St 10-7 at East Lansing on Sep 14, moving to 3-0 and No. 24 in the AP poll. However, ASU lost 34-31 at home last Saturday to Colorado and at 3-1, fell out of the rankings. ASU has a freshman QB in Daniels and he's 'learning fast.' He opened by throwing for 588 yards (3 TDs and 0 INTs) in ASU's first two games but then had all sorts of problems at Mich St, throwing for just 140 yards. Yes, the Sun Devils lost to the Buffs last Saturday, but Daniels passed for 345 yards with two TDs. Cal's D has gotten a lot of pub since late 2018 (and with good reason) but despite allowing 34 points to Colorado, the ASU defense is allowing only 13.8 PPG (17th) on 346.0 YPG (49th). PK Brandon Ruiz has yet to play this season because of an undisclosed injury and is unlikely to return Friday. However, walk-on kicker Cristian Zendejas may not have his range, but he's made NINE of his 10 field-goal attempts. Cal was hardly impressive in 27-13 and 23-17 wins over UC-Davis and North Texas at home, respectively, but owns two quality road wins. The Bears won 20-19 at then-No. 14 Washington and then at SEC foe Ole Miss (see above). QB Chase Garbers came into Oxford last Saturday having completed just 20- of 40 passes for 240 yards in his previous two games but threw for 357 yards and four TDs vs the Rebels. Cal needed "all of that," as its much-heralded defense did hold Ole Miss to 20 points (the Bears have held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 24 points) but a check of the stat sheet shows a mediocre Ole Miss offense gained 525 yards! ASU suffered a let down against Colorado off its win at MSU the week before but Herm Edwards knows his team really needs a bounce-back win here. Is Cal really as good as its press clippings? I'm not sold and will note that Cal was 1-5-1 ATS at home last season and is 0-2 ATS at home to start 2019. Meanwhile, ASU is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road dog. I'm calling for the outright upset. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-19 | Navy +11 v. Memphis | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Navy at 8:00 ET. Ken Niumatalolo took over at Navy when Paul Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I expect a bounce-back season for Navy in 2019 and the Midshipmen and after a win over Holy Cross, Navy rolled over East Carolina 42-10 in its second game of the season. The schedule maker has 'eased' 2-0 Navy into the 2019 season, as the Midshipmen opened at home vs Holy Cross, had a week off and then beat East Carolina. Navy again had a week off and now it's the team's conference road opener at 3-0 Memphis, which is playing its AAC opener. When Tommy West took over Memphis in 2001, the school had only been to one bowl in its history (Pasadena Bowl in 1971). West took the Tigers to five bowl but was fired after a 2-10 season in 2011.Larry Porter's two-year tenure as a 3-21 'nightmare,' as was Justin Fuente's first two years with Memphis. Fuente went 7-17 in 2012 and 2013 but led Memphis to a 10-3 season in 2014 (Miami Beach Bowl win) and then to a 9-3 season in 2015 (left for Va Tech before the bowl game). Mike Norvell enters his fourth season, off three bowl appearances, although the Tigers have lost all three. Navy QB Malcolm Perry is a dangerous 'weapon' in Navy's option offense. He showed his evolution as a passer by becoming the first Navy QB since 2010 to rush and pass for at least 150 yards in the same game while accounting for six TDs vs East Carolina (156 rush yards with 4 TDs / 151 passing yards with 2 TDs). He's backed by a group of RBs well-schooled in the team's triple-option, as Navy is No. 1 in the nation, averaging 371.5 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC). Sure, the opponents have only been Holy Cross and ECU, but the defense has allowed only 8.5 PPG (2nd) on 227.0 YPG (4th) Memphis was hardly impressive in its 15-10 season-opening home win over Ole Miss plus a 55-24 home win over Southern and a 42-6 road win at South Alabama are nice but this will be a tougher test. QB White showed little vs Ole Miss (172 yards with one INT), so his 546 yards with five TDs (just one INT) vs Southern and South Alabama still leaves a question mark. However, the Memphis D has been impressive, allowing 13.3 PPG (15th) on 226.3 YPG (3rd0. Many will find this stat a surprise (I did), as Memphis' 48 wins since 2014 rank No. 13 in the FBS. However, these schools have met just FOUR times, all recently as AAC members. Navy is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in those meetings and I'm predicting that its vaunted triple-option will control clock in this one. Yes, the Midshipmen haven’t won a road game since September of 2017 but Navy is 20-10 ATS as a road dog since 2009. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-19 | West Virginia -4.5 v. Kansas | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on West Va at 4:30 ET. Both West Va and Kansas began the 2019 season with new head coaches. Neal Brown took over at West Va, after leading Troy to three straight bowl wins from 2016-18 and a 31-8 overall record. As for Kansas, the Jayhawks, mired in a decade-long slump since Mark Mangino was allowed to 'quietly' resign after the 2009 season, hired Les Miles. Miles began his career at Oklahoma St but he made his name at LSU, taking the Tigers to 11 straight bowl games from 2005-2015, winning the BCS championship in 2007 and losing it in 2011. His record was 112-032 in that span but after a 2-2 start in 2016, was fired. Kansas signed him to a five-year contract last November. West Va opened the season with an uninspiring 20-13 home win over James Madison and then got blown out 38-7 at Missouri. However, behind Austin Kendall's 272 yards and three TD passes, the Mounrtaineers beat NC State 44-27 as a 7-point home dog. Brown has just three starters back from an offense that avergaed 40.3 PPG. QB Kendall is a graduate transfer from Oklahoma and three freshmen receivers helped infuse some much-needed life into the offense last Saturday, as Sam James caught nine passes for 155 yards (1 TD), Winston Wright had four catches and Ali Jennings had three catches, including a fourth-quarter TD. Brown used three first-time starters on the offensive line against North Carolina State. West Va entered the contest averaging an FBS-worst 1.1 YPC but ran for 173 yards (6.2 YPC)! "The Hat's" career at Kansas got started with a fortunate 24-17 home win over Indiana St (Jayhawks scored the go-ahead TD with just over two minutes left in the game). That unimpressive victory was followed by a shocking 12-7 home loss to Coastal Carolina. So what happened a week ago last Friday? Kansas won 48-24 at BC, as an 18 1/2-point underdog. Senior QB Carter Stanley (107 yards passing , two interceptions vs Coastal Carolina) rebounded from an interception on his first pass attempt against the Eagles by completing 12 straight and finishing 20-of-27 for 238 yards and three TD. Kansas ran for 329 yards on 7.3 YPC. What's going on here? The win ended a 48-game road losing streak against Powe-5 schools for the Jayhawks. Can the Jayhawks actually move to 3-1 with a win here? Kansas entered 2019 with a 6-82 record in Big 12 play the last 10 years and last won its league-opener back in 2009, Mangino's last season with the team. Kansas has lost NINE straight conference openers since, and SEVEN of eight to West Va since it joined the Big 12. That includes FIVE straight losses to West Va by the scores of 51-13, 49-0, 48-21, 56-34 and 38-22. I was never much of a fan of "the Hat" and I'll side with Brown, whose Troy teams the last three seasons averaged between 30.7 and 33.7 PPG on offense, while allowing just 18.5-to-22.1 PPG on defense. This guy can coach and look for him to prove it at Morgantown before he's through. Kansas opened 2-1 in 2018 as well but finished 3-9. That BC game was a 'mirage!' Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-19 | Appalachian State v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on North Carolina at 3:30 ET. Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory. However, the Tar Heels lost their first true road game of 2019 at Wake Forest, 24-18. North Carolina used fourth-quarter comebacks to win its first two games of the season and came back from 21-3 down in the final quarter against Wake but time ran out on them. 2-0 Appalachian State comes to Chapel Hill this Saturday, after enjoying an early-season bye week. The Mountaineers scored a combined 98 points in home victories over East Tennessee State and Charlotte to open the season and are certainly one of the top contenders in the Sun Belt (note: App St received 12 votes in the national coaches poll this week). RB Darrynton Evanshas rushed for 333 yards in two games (10.1 YPC / 4 TDs), while QB Zac Thomas has completed 68.2% for 332 yards with five TDs and zero INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 12-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to EIGHT straight wins. Appalachian State is averaging 49.0 PPG (12th) and 276.5 YPG rushing (14th) but of course, the team's first two opponents leave much to be desired. North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for 701 yards with six TDs and zero INTs plus has two RBs making contributions, Javonte Williams (205 yards on 5.5 YPC) and Michael Carter (203 yards on 5.1 YPC).These schools are just 163 miles apart but will meet for the first time since 1940. Appalachian State's transition to FBS staus has gone smoothly, as the Mountaineers are 41-11 the last four seasons, going to and WINNING four bowl games. However, all that success came under head coach Scott Satterfield, who is now at Louisville. Elijah Drinkwitz is in his first year as a head coach in 2019 and home wins over ETSU and Charlotte haven't proved much of anything. This will be the Mountaineers' first road game and North Carolina will surely look to keep an in-state school like Appalachian State "in its place!" Howell is the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina and he opened his career with two straight 4th-quarter comeback wins, before falling just short in his third game. Mack Brown has reinvigorated the UNC program with confidence and with the school's ACC opener looming next Saturday (against No. 1 Clemson), Brown surely won't want to go into that contest off two straight losses. No one will ever forget Appalachian State's infamous 34-32 upset at Michigan (as a 4-TD underdog) back in 2007 but let me point out that the Mountaineers are 1-15 SU against Power-5 schools this century. No real number to 'sneak under' in this one. Take the Tar Heels. Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Ohio -3 | Top | 45-25 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Sep Game of the Month is on Ohio U at 2:00 ET. The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns won NINE games each season in a four-year stretch from 2011 through 2014, playing in four consecutive New Orleans Bowls (ULL won AND covered each one!). However, ULL opened this season on a three-year run of just 18-21, including two bowl losses. The Ragin' Cajuns opened the 2019 season with a 38-28 loss to Miss St (game was played in New Orleans, not Lafayette), before winning home games over Liberty (35-14) and Texas Southern (77-6). ULL was a 19-point underdog against Miss St, so the team heads into its first true road game of the season a perfect 3-0 ATS. Ohio U opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but has lost two straight since, both on the road. The Bobcats lost 20-10 at Pitt on Aug 7 and then last Saturday, fell just short in a 33-31 loss at Marshall. That Pitt loss hardly looks so bad now (ask No. 13 Penn St about the Panthers) and remember, Marshall lost by just SEVEN points at Boise St the week before. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke was spectacular at Marshall, passing for 215 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, while adding 118 rushing (on just nine carries) and a fourth TD. As noted earlier, this is ULL's first true road game of 2019 and winning in Athens has not been easy for visiting teams, as of late. The Bobcats last lost a home game back on 10/7/17 (26-23 in OT to Central Michigan) and enter this contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Want more? How about these two factoids. Ohio has averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak plus going back to the start of the 2017 season, checks in 8-2 ATS at home over FBS foes. Frank Solich has done a GREAT job at Ohio (NINE bowl appearances over the last 10 seasons) and many think this year's team could win its first MAC championship since 1968. The Bobcats really need a win here, as they get next weekend off, before playing their next EIGHT games against MAC foes, including FOUR weekday games in November. ULL is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-19 | California v. Ole Miss -2 | 28-20 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Ole Miss at 12:00 ET. California is off to its third consecutive 3-0 start and entered the AP top-25 last Sunday at No. 23. Cal has relied on an excellent defense to earn a season-opening win over UC-Davis, a 20-19 upset at then-No. 14 Washington and then another home win over North Texas last Saturday. 27-13 and 23-17 home wins over UC-Davis and North Texas are hardly impressive efforts but what is impressive is that Cal enters this contest in Oxford having allowed 23 points or less in 10 straight games. The Ole Miss Rebels were just 5-7 last year and have won SIX or less games in each of the last three years, making the school's last bowl appearance back in 2015. That Sugar-Bowl winning team finished 10th in the final AP poll with a 10-3 record. How quickly things have fallen apart in Oxford. Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag on November 26, 2017 and he became 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) has put some pressure on Luke. Luke sure didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. The Rebels D played well in the team's season opener but the offense was a 'dud' (173 total yards and 13 FDs) in a 15-10 loss at Memphis. However, Rich-Rod's new offense has averaged 35.5 points in back-to-back home wins over Arkansas and Southeastern Louisiana plus that ever-improving Ole Miss defense held both Arkansas and SE Louisiana to fewer than 70 yards rushing. Cal's D ranks 34th in scoring (16.3 PPG) and 43rd in total D (313.7 YPG) but while sophomore QB Chase Garbers may be 9-4 as a starter, he's completing only 52.9% of his passes for a modest 478 yards (Cal ranks 118th with 159.3 YPG through the air). RB Brown leads the way with 324 yards (5.0 YPC) for a solid rushing attack that averages 191.3 YPG (48th). However, I expect Cal's offense to have some problems here in Oxford, as the Bears come in averaging only 23.3 PPG (95th) on 350.7 YPG (100th). I noted earlier that Luke brought in Rich-Rod and Mike MacIntyre and these two former he coaches know Cal well having recently been head coaches at ASU and Colorado, respectively. In fact, the duo has won FIVE of its last six meetings vs Cal. Ole Miss QB Corral started four games last season but seems to be 'finding his footing' after a poor effort at Memphis ( 9 of 19 for 93 yards without a TD and one INT). He's completed 37 of 54 at home the last two games, throwing for 485 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. Cal's running game has also perked up, rushing for 237 and 220 yards the last two Saturdays. RB Phillips has put together back-to-back 100 yards games (243 yards with three TDs), after gaining only 62 yards at Memphis. Is Cal really deserving of a top-25 ranking? We'll find out here but my 'bet' says the answer is N-O! This will be a 9 a.m. Pacific time kickoff for Cal and the heat and humidity of Oxford will surely not help the Bears as the game wears on. Ole Miss hasn’t lost a non-conference home game since September of 2012, when Texas won 66-31. The Rebels are a PERFECT 17-0 SU vs non-conference opponents in Oxford since that defeat. I say the Rebels make it 18 in a row, here! Good luck...Larry |
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09-20-19 | Air Force +8.5 v. Boise State | 19-30 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* Friday Night Lights Play is on Air Force at 9:00 ET. It would be more than fair to call Boise St the “Gonzaga of College Football." After all, the Broncos began to ascend to prominence on the gridiron in the late 1990s, about the same time the Bulldogs began 'making noise' on the hardwood. Twenty years later, the Broncos and Bulldogs keep winning. The Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs Boston College was cancelled due to inclement weather) but the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the last 20 years. The Broncois opened the 2019 season unranked but their 3-0 start has them in the AP top-25 at No. 20. Boise St opened 2019 with a huge comeback win at FSU (trailed 31-13 in the second quarter but won, 36-31), before winning home games over Marshall (14-7) and FCS Portland St (45-10). Visiting Boise Friday night will be Air Force, fresh off its 30-23 (OT) win at Colorado last Saturday. Air Force is 2-0 and ranks second in the nation in rushing with 356.0 YPG. QB Donald Hammond has thrown just 12 passes but he should not be overlooked. The Air Force defense held Colgate to seven points on just 161 yards in its season opener but really impressed by allowing Colorado a modest 23 points on 325 yards last Saturday in Boulder. That's after the Buffs had scored 52 points on 475 yards vs Colorado St (in Denver) and 34 points on 464 yards in a home OT win over Nebraska. True freshman QB Hank Bachmeier had a HUGE game vs FSU (407 yards) but has averaged a more modest 260 YPG with three TDs and two INTs in his last two games. It's not good news that Boise lost its top-2 WRs from last year and that early NFL draftee RB Alex Mattison (1,415 YR, 17 TDs) left a 'hole' in the backfield. No returning RB gained as much as 200 yards in 2018. Head coach Harsin has used a "RB by committee" to open 2019. Mahone had 142 yards in the opener but just 73 yards in the last two games. Holmani had 103 yards vs Marshall but just 113 in Games 1 and 3. Boise’s string of 10 straight years with a 1,000-yard rusher might come to end. Boise's famed "blue carpet" has not produced the kind of results Boise St bettors have liked, as the Broncos are just 17-36-1 their last 53 games as a home favorite. As for Calhoun's Falcons, they are 11-3-1 as road dogs since 2015 (that's a 79% winning mark). Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -107 | 54 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* American Conference Crusher is on Houston at 8:00 ET. The Houston Cougars and Tulane Green Wave meet Thursday in an American Athletic Conference game at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Houston has opened 1-2, losing at No. 4 Oklahoma on Sep 1 and at NRG Stadium last Friday to No. 20 Washington St. In between, the Cougars won 37-17 at home against Prairie View A&M. Thursday's game will be the FOURTH different stadium the team has played in over its first four games. Tulane is playing at home for the THIRD time in four weeks, opening with a 42-14 home win over FIU, losing at No. 10 Auburn 24-6 and then crushing Missouri St 58-6 at home last Saturday. Houston's pass D was overwhelmed by Oklahoma's Hurts and Washington St's Gordon but Tulane QB Justin McMillan is completing a modest 55.2% for 424 yards (2 TDs / 2 INTs), while adding 154 yards rushing (3 TDs). FYI...Hurts and Gordon have completed almost 80% of their passes (21-2 TD-to-INT ratio) with Hurts rushing for 373 yards (9.8 YPC / 4 TDs). Houston QB King is not off to a great start but remember, he passed for 2,982 yards in 2018 (36-6 ratio) and added 674 yards rushing with 14 TDs. He's had a least one TD pass and one rush TD in each game this season, tying Tem Tebow's NCAA record of 14 straight games with at least one TD pass and one rush TD. Let me note that Houston is 23-10 SU in AAC games since 2015, while Tulane has gone 10-22 in league games over the exact same time span.Houston has 'hung around' against two ranked teams, plus was plagued with costly penalties and noticeably wore down due to lack of depth in its 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday. However, while getting better, Tulane is still a middle-of-pack AAC team. Meanwhile, Houston is a HIGHLY-PROFITABLE 13-1-1 ATS as an underdog since 2015. That's a 93% winning situation. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-19 | TCU v. Purdue +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Purdue at 7:30 ET. Purdue led Nevada 24-7 at the half in Reno and extended its lead to 17 points again at 34-17, late in the third quarter. However, the Boilermakers never scored again and lost 34-31 (as 11-point road favorites), on a 56-yard FG as time expired by a walk-on freshman placekicker. The 'killer' was five turnovers and the Boilermakers knew they had to correct that right away. Purdue hosted Vanderbilt last Saturday and its lone turnover was an interception thrown by QB Elijah Sindelar. However, the junior could be forgiven, as he was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after completing 34-of-52 passes for a career-high 509 yards and five touchdowns. Sindelar became the 18th player to surpass 3,000 passing yards at Purdue and although he suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter, he practiced Wednesday and is expected to play. TCU opened its 2019 season with a 39-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Aug 31 and then had last week off. Gary Patterson has had some career at TCU, taking over full-time in 2001 and going to 16 bowls the last 18 seasons. Eleven times his teams have won double digits in a single season, including the 2010 team going 13-0 after a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin (TCU ended as the nation's 2nd-ranked team). The Horned Frogs did go 11-3 in 2017 but in 2016 went 6-7 after a bowl loss and in 2019 went 7-6, after a bowl win. The Horned Frogs played two QBs in their season-opening win and graduate transfer Alex Delton and freshman Max Duggan are expected to split snaps once again. The duo completed 26 of 45 for 284 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) and the running game ran for 200 yards (5.6 YPC). However, the opponent WAS Arkansas-Pine Bluff. TCU averaged just 23.5 PPG, after a four-year run of averaging 33.6, 31.0, 42.1 and 46.5. The defense only returns five starters but Patterson rarely fields a poor defensive team. Still, Sindelar has thrown for 932 yards with nine TDs in his first two games and has one of the nation's best WRs in Rondale Moore, who caught 114 passes last season for 12 TDs. He already has 24 catches and two TDs after two games. Purdue has a HUGE edge at the QB position and with next week off (Big Ten play begins Sep 28), this is a "statement" game for Purdue's season. Take a note that in 2018, Purdue beat three ranked opponents at home ( #23 BC 30-13, 32 Ohio St 49-20 and #19 Iowa 38-360, for the first time since 1959. The small home dog 'barks' VERY 'loudly' in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-19 | Iowa -2 v. Iowa State | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Cy-Hawk Rivalry is on Iowa at 4:00 ET. Iowa State struggled in its season opener at home against Northern Iowa on Aug 31, before winning 29-26 in triple-overtime. The Cyclones were off last weekend, getting an extra week to prepare for its biggest non-conference rival, Iowa.ISU was happy for the extra week off to make necessary adjustments after its lackluster debut. "It’s really good to have an opportunity to step back and say, Is what we’re doing the right thing? Where do we need to get better? What are the things that might help our offense or might help our defense?" offensive coordinator Tom Manning told the Ames Tribune. Iowa comes to Ames 2-0 and ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, after opening with home wins over Miami-Ohio (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0). The Hawkeyes have hardly been tested so far by Mia-O and Rutgers but it's good news that QB Nate Stanley, who came into the season with high expectations (52-16 TD-to-INT ratio the last two years), is living up to the hype with 488 passing yards, six TDs and no interceptions through the first two games. It's true that Iowa's first two opponents were hardly ranked opponents but Kirk Ferentz-coached teams always play excellent defense. Iowa has opened by allowing 185.0 YPG (4th), 113.5 passing YPG (8th), 71.5 rushing YPG (16th) and 7.0 PPG (8th). The Cyclones managed to survive Northern Iowa in Week 1 thanks in large part to the connection between QB Brock Purdy (30-41 for 278 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and wide receiver Deshaunte Jones, who finished with career highs of 14 catches for 126 yards. Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl. Having last weekend off is an advantage for ISU but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has figured out this rivalry with FOUR straight wins. Iowa QB Stanley, a senior, is trying to go out 4-0 against the Cyclones, after coming in as a backup his freshman year (a 42-3 win) and starting this rivalry game the last two years in 13-3 and 44-41 wins. Iowa is off next weekend and then hosts Middle Tenn St on Sep 28. A win here and the Hawkeyes should be 4-0 when it begins Big Ten play at Michigan on Oct 5. Bet on it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy -7 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Navy at 3:30 ET. |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston +9.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Friday Night Lights Play is on Houston at 9:15 ET. Mike Leach career ended at Texas Tech after the 2009 season, amid lots of controversy. He resurfaced in Pullman with Wash St but saw his second season (6-7 after a bowl loss), sandwiched around a pair of 3-9 seasons in his first and third years. However, Wash St entered the 2019 season off FOUR straight bowl appearances, with his Cougars finishing 11-2 in 2018 and 10th in the AP's final poll. Washington State lost QB Greg Minshew (70.7%, 4,779 yard, 38-9 ratio) to the NFL but its offense is in mid-season form after just two games, as Anthony Gordon (five pass attempts in 2018) has completed 81.1% of his passes for 884 yards with nine TDs and just one INT. WSU has scored 117 points (58.5 PPG ranks 5th) on 606.0 YPG (7th), although the team is averaging only 112.0 YPG on the ground (110th). The Cougars travel to Houston Friday night to take on the 1-1 Houston Cougars at NRG Stadium (home of the NFL's Texans). The Cougars opened their season Sep 1 at Oklahoma and while they never threatened to win the game, they were able to cover as a 21 1/2-point underdog in the 18-point loss. However, Oklahoma ran up 686 total yards, as QB Jalen Hurts passed for 332 yards and three TDs, while adding 176 rushing yards and another three TDs. Last Saturday's 37-17 home win over Prairie View A&M was hardly impressive. Will Houston have much luck slowing down Gordon and the WSU offense? No, but don't be too quick to dismiss Houston. UH is 3-0 at NRG Stadium (just five miles for the campus) since 2012, a 33-23 upset over Oklahoma in 2016. Even more noteworthy is the fact that Houston is 8-1 ATS as an underdog vs ranked teams since 2013 (that's an 89% winning situation). The LONE non-cover in that stretch came in last year's 70-14 beatdown by Army in Armed Forces Bowl when QB D’Eriq King was out with injury. King is a true dual-threat, who passed for 2,582 yards in 2018 (36-6 ratio) plus ran for 674 yards and 14 TDs. In a much 'friendlier' venue that Norman on Sep 1, don't be surprised if King out-shines Gordon, giving the 20th-ranked Cougars all they want. Upset alert? Maybe, but take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference ACC Showdown is on Wake Forest at 6:00 ET Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory. North Carolina plays its first true road game of 2019 this Saturday, when it visits Winston-Salem to take on ACC rival Wake Forest. Under the current ACC two-division, 14-team alignment, the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons are scheduled to play each other just once every SEVEN years. The schools wanted more and were allowed to play this year in what will be considered a "non-conference" contest (odd arrangement). Dave Clawson got his first FBS head coaching jog at Bowling Green in 2009 and in his fifth season (2013), his Falcons upset a 13-0 Northern Illinois team in the MAC championship game. He used that win to get the job at Wake and after going 3-9 in each of his first two years, he's led Wake to three straight bowl games, winning all THREE! Wake opened with a 38-35 home win over Utah St and then won 41-21 at Rice last Saturday. Both teams have QBs off to excellent starts. North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for four scores and 519 yards while directing four-quarter comebacks in each of his first two contests. He's the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina. Eight different receivers have caught at least one pass through two games plus RB Javonte Williams has added 178 rushing yards on 6.4 YPC. Wake's Jamie Newman, who won a quarterback battle in training camp after starting the final four games a season ago, has completed 74.3% for 713 yards (that total leads the ACC) with six TDs and not a single INT. The running game chips in 189.5 YPG (4.1 YPC). Kudos to Brown for his team's fast start but the Tar Heels have played at Charlotte (hardly a neutral site against the Gamecocks) plus at home vs Miami. This true road game at Wake will be a big test, against an offense averaging 39.5 PPG on 546.0 YPG (12th), including 356.5 YPG through the air (11th). The Carolina hype is running high, as it's been said that the people at Chapel Hill haven't already turned their attention to Roy Williams' basketball team.Wake owns some explosive playmakers and it just may be time to start talking hoops in Chapel Hill after this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | LSU v. Texas +7 | Top | 45-38 | Push | 0 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Texas at 7:00 ET. 2019's Week 1 saw just one top-25 matchup, as No. 16 Auburn pulled out a late 27-21 win over No. 11 Oregon in Arlington, Tx last Saturday night. The victory moved Auburn to the No. 10 spot in the new AP poll, while Oregon dropped to No. 16.. The two marquee matchups of Week 2 are No. 1 Clemson putting its 16-game winning streak on the line at home vs No. 12 Texas A7M and No. 6 LSU visiting No. 9 Texas. No one really expects A&M to upset Clemson, so in effect, the LSU/Texas game holds more drama and the winner will firmly establish itself as a top-10 team. LSU unveiled a new spread offense in its opener against Georgia Southern and rolled up 472 yards in a 55-3 rout. Texas did not face much of a challenge in its season opener either, easing past Louisiana Tech in Austin, 45-14. LSU's senior QB Joe Burrow was 23-of-27 for 278 yards and five TDs last Saturday, as different players recorded at least one catch. Spreading the ball around is key to the team's new offensive system plus Burrow is trying to get the ball out quicker this season. So far, so good. He was not sacked in the opener. LSU always plays great defense and the out-manned Eagles were held to 98 total yards and just eight FDs. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger completed 28-of-38 passes for 276 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the opener but LSU's secondary is one of the best in the country. Texas ran for 153 yards last week (5.1 YPC) but doing that again vs LSU's defensive front is HIGHLY unlikely. A concern for Texas is the Longhorns allowing 413 total yards against La Tech, including 340 through the air. Ex-Saints aide Joe Brady had LSU's "new-look" passing game in mid-season form but should LSU really be favored hetr in Austin (and by about a TD!!)? The temperature in Austin likely will approach 100 degrees on Saturday and that opens the door for fatigue to play a role. Tom Herman has made quite a name for himself in his four years as a head coach in "big games." He is 10-6 SU as an underdog and a MONEY-MAKING 13-2-1 ATS. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | Wyoming v. Texas State +7 | 23-14 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on Texas St at 7:00 ET. The Wyoming Cowboys pulled a Week 1 shocker, upsetting Missouri 37-31 in Laramie as 15-point home dog. QB Sean Chambers threw for just 92 yards on 6 of 16 passing but led the Cowboys in rushing with 120 yards and a TD. RB Xazavian Valladay added 118 yards on the ground and also score a TD. A worry has to be a defense which allowed Missouri 537 total yards and 28 FDs. Winning the TO 'battle' 3-0 was a HUGE key for Wyoming.The Texas State Bobcats were manhandled 41-7 at Texas A&M to open their season and the team's lone score came on a 27-yard TD pass with only 36 seconds left in the game (giving them a push/ATS win). Wyoming took full advantage of a rare home game (at 7,200 feet) against a bottom-rung SEC foe but the Cowboys hit the road this week in what sets up as a classic letdown spot. Texas State has a new head coach in Jake Spavital and 19 of 22 starters are back from the 2018 team. This is just the fourth meeting between the two schools and the home teams has won SU in each of the first three. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | BYU v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET. Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano admitted he was "disgusted" following the eight-point loss, which is even a little deceptive given that the Volunteers scored a last-second TD. BYU comes to Knoxville off a NINTH straight "Holy War" loss to Utah. The Cougars fell 30-12,as three BYU turnovers led directly to three Utah scores. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's first losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his fourth season at BYU and the offense is led by sophomore QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TD passes in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). Wilson rushed for 43 yards vs Utah, while achieving career highs in passing attempts (33) and completions (21). However, he threw for a modest 208 yards plus had two interceptions returned for TDs. BYU ran for only 92 yards and gained only 14 FDs. Defensively, BYU allowed 262 yards on the ground (5.5 YPC). Technical trends surely don't favor the Vols, who are now 3-12 ATS over their last 15 home games. Meanwhile, BYU is 9-2 as a road dog since the beginning of 2016. However, I'm throwing out the tech trends here, as Tennessee had won 30 straight home games vs non-Power-5 conference schools prior to last week.QB Guarantano recorded the second 300-yard game of his career last Saturday finishing with 311 yards and a pair of TDs. Another postive was Tennessee committed just THREE penalties last week. It's just Week 2 but the Vols could be in a "Make or Break" seasonal mode in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA -8 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
My 7* play is on UCLA at 4:15 ET. The San Diego State Aztecs opened their season with a victory but a 6-0 home win over Weber St as a 12-point favorite was hardly inspiring. UCLA had a "revenge" game with Cincy to open its 2019 season but fell, 24-14. Chip Kelly's first season at UCLA was an unqualified disaster (3-9) and a loss here almost guarantees an 0-3 start to 2019, as Oklahoma visits the Rose Bowl next Saturday. SDSU gained just 238 yards at home vs an FCS team (granted a nationally-ranked one) and the Aztecs have NEVER beaten the Bruins. The schools first met back in 1922 and the Bruins lead the series 21-0-1. Kelly has 19 starters back and this is a game he can and NEEDS to win. I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 44 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Purdue at 12:00 ET. Vanderbilt had a tough season-opener on Aug 31, as No. 3 Georgia visited Nashville. The 'Dores fell behind 21-0 in the first 22 minutes against the Bulldogs and managed just a pair of Ryley Guay field FGs in a 30-6 loss. Yes, Vandy was out-gained 479-225 but the team's "D" was able to keep Georgia's potent offense from scoring a TD over the game's final 37 minutes. Purdue traveled to Reno, Nevada to open its season on Aug 31 (farthest the Boilermakers had traveled for s a season-opener since 2009 at Eugene, Oregon). Purdue led 24-7 at the half and extended its lead to 17 points again at 34-17, late in the third quarter. However, the Boilermakers never scored again and lost 34-31 (as 11-point road favorites). on a 56-yard FG as time expired by a walk-on freshman placekicker. The two schools will meet for the first time since 1942 when the Commodores travel to West Lafayette, Ind. on Saturday afternoon. Vandy QB Riley Neal finished 14-of-25 for just 85 yards against a Georgia defense expected to be one of the best in the nation. Senior running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn, who rushed for 1,244 yards and 12 TDs in 2018, had 74 yards on 15 carries. Obviously, Purdue's defense will be an easier test but while Vandy did 'hold' Georgia to 30 points, the defense did allow 481 yards. Purdue's senior QB Elijah Sindelar completed 34-of-52 passes for 423 yards and four TDs but also threw two second-half interceptions that helped key the Wolf Pack's comeback. All-American wide receiver Rondale Moore had 11 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown but also fumbled a punt that set up a Nevada field goal. Jeff Brohm's Purdue team returned just three offensive starters but last Saturday's performance on the road shows that they’re capable of putting points on the board. NINE defensive starters return, so expect Purdue to have much better success here at home, against a questionable Vandy offense. Purdue let a game slip away that it rightfully should’ve won last Saturday and here at home, should "get it right" vs Vandy, a team which has lost its last SEVEN road openers when playing a Power-5 school. Jeff Brohm was seen as a rising star at Western Ky (30-10 record, while leading the Hilltoppers to three straight bowl berths) but so far, he's finding the Big Ten much tougher. The SEC is of course a 'monster' but Vandy is VERY beatable. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-19 | Marshall +12 v. Boise State | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* Friday Night Lights play is on Marshall at 9:00 ET. I referred to Boise St last week as the “Gonzaga of College Football." After all, the Broncos began to ascend to prominence on the gridiron in the late ‘90s, about the same time the Bulldogs began 'making noise' on the hardwood. Twenty years later, the Broncos and Bulldogs keep winning. The Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs Boston College was cancelled due to inclement weather) and the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the last 20 years. The Broncos opened their 2019 season with a trip to Tallahassee (moved from Jacksonville because of the hurricane situation) and after falling behind 31-13 by the late second quarter, staged a dramatic comeback.The BSU defense tightened (FSU never scored over the game's final 34 minutes and was held to just 68 yards in the second half), while freshman QB Hank Bachmeier, hailed as one of the best recruits in Boise State football history, gave every indication that he's "the real deal." Bachmeier threw for 407 yards (one TD / one INT) plus was greatly helped by a running game that ran 57 times (the second-most during Harsin's tenure as coach since 2014) for 214 yards. RB Robert Mahone had 142 yards (he ran for just 128 all last year and 115 in 2017) and two TDs. The Broncos are back home Friday night to host Marshall. Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd have been 'bowling' in FIVE of the last six seasons and have won EACH bowl contest! Marshall 'tuned up' last Saturday with a 56-17 romp over VMI, an FCS school. Marshall amassed 620 yards of total offense, while limiting VMI to 257. The Herd had a balanced attack of 340 yards passing and 280 rushing with 35 FDs.QB Isaiah Green (18-28 for 233 yards) threw a career-high four TD passes and the running game averaged 6.1 YPC. Marshall should NOT be overlooked, as the Herd are 8-2 ATS the last three seasons when playing as an underdog. As for Boise, that famed "blue carpet" has not produced the kind of results Boise St bettors would have liked. In fact, the Broncos check in at 16-35-1 the last 51 games as a home favorite. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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08-31-19 | Virginia Tech -4 v. Boston College | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Game of the Month (ACC) is on Va Tech at 4:00 ET. Florida State's 5-7 finish in 2018 was the school's worst since 1975 and its sub-500 season ended FSU's remarkable streak of 36 straight bowl appearances. That over-shadowed what happened in Blacksburg. Yes, Va Tech's 6-6 regular season record extended the school's bowl streak to 26 in a row (now the longest active streak) but the Hokies' 35-31 loss to Cincinnati in the Military Bowl gave the school its first losing season since 1992. Tech opened 4-2 but a four-game losing streak meant the Hokies needed to win their last two regular season games to make a bowl (see above for that result). Tech opens 2019 with a conference game on the road, as the Hokies travel to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College. The Eagles beat Va Tech in Blacksburg 31-21 on Nov 2, giving them a 7-2 record and a top-25 ranking. However, BC lost its final three regular season games, before the school's bowl game against Boise St was cut short after one quarter by severe weather. BC has won exactly SEVEN games in FIVE of head coach Steve Addazio's six seasons, earning a bowl bid each time. Ryan Willis took over early last season at QB and threw for 2,716 yards and 24 TDs with nine interceptions in 12 games. The senior is primed for a big year. WRs Damon Hazelton (51 catches / 802 yards / 8 TDs) and Tre Turner (26 catches / 535 yards / 4 TDs) will be his top targets, while junior TE Dalton Keene (28 catches) could have a breakout season. The rushing game will be RB by committee but Fuente had outstanding offenses at Memphis and this year's Va Tech team has all of the makings of a dynamic offense. Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster has been at Va Tech 'forever,' and after a succession of top-10 defenses for more than two decades, it's hard to NOT see a bounce-back from Tech's defense in 2019 (Tech allowed 31 PPG and almost 440 YPG in 2018). Note: 10 of 11 starters are back. Junior RB Dillon missed roughly a month last year due to an ankle injury but he still finished with 1,108 yards and 10 TDs (he gained 1,589 yards with 14 TDs as a freshman). Junior QB Anthony Brown (2,121 passing yards, / 20 TDs) is back and he he'll and operate behind a solid Boston College OL. The BC defense returns just three starters from a unit which allowed 25.7 PPG and just over 400 YPG. Boston College will undoubtedly be looking up at Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division and probably Syracuse, as well. That means the Eagles will be fighting with FSU (greatly improved in 2019) and NC St for a third-place finish and a bowl berth. Meanwhile, the ACC's Coastal Division is wide-open and Va Tech is as good a pick as any to win it. The Hokies had beaten the Eagles in three straight before last year's game, winning by an average of 26 points. However, after the Hokies led 14-7 at the half last season, BC scored 24 unanswered points in an eventual 31-21 victory. Va Tech has won 23-10 and 26-10 in in last two visits to BC. That sounds about right, here. Revenge works! Good luck...Larry |
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08-31-19 | Ole Miss +5 v. Memphis | 10-15 | Push | 0 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Ole Miss at 12:00 ET. Memphis football looked 'dead in the water' from 2009-13, going 12-50 (.194) in that five-year span. However, in Justin Fuente's third season at Memphis (2014), the Tigers would go 10-3, including a thrilling 55-48 (2 OT) victory over BYU in the Miami Beach Bowl. Fuente led the Tigers to a bowl berth again in 2015 but left to take the Va Tech job. Mike Norvell took over in 2016 and he's led the Tigers to three straight bowls but Memphis has lost each one. The Tigers are off a so-so 8-6 season and return 14 starters. The Ole Miss Rebels were just 5-7 last year and have won SIX or less games in each of the last three years, making the school's last bowl appearance back in 2015. That Sugar-Bowl winning team finished 10th in the final AP poll with a 10-3 record. How quickly, things have fallen apart in Oxford. Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag on November 26, 2017 and he became 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) has put some pressure on Luke. Luke sure didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. When last seen, Rich-Rod’s spread option saw Arizona QB Khalil Tate create more than a few headlines and there was some Heisman-talk. Reports are that redshirt freshman Matt Corral (239 yards, 2 TDs) will thrive as Rich-Rod's QB and senior RB Scottie Phillips will get lots of work after he ran for 928 yards in his first season with the Rebels (JC transfer), While Rich-Rod's transition should go smoothly, Mike MacIntyre will have his hands full with the Rebels' defense. Ole Miss ranked 116th against the run and 111th against the pass in 2018. The Rebels are switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 on defense and there is nowhere to go but up! Norvell's Tigers have averaged 42.9, 45.5 and 38.8 PPG in his three seasons at Memphis and theTigers return QB Brady White (3,296 yards / 26-9 ratio). Leading rusher Darrell Henderson (1,909 yards, 22 TDs) and Tony Pollard (552, 6 TDs both decided to leave for the NFL but Patrick Taylor Jr. stuck around for his senior season. He ran for 1,122 yards, and 16 TDs. Memphis also returns three of its top-four receivers, including the outstanding Damonte Coxie, who caught 72 balls (1,174 yards and 7 TDs). The offense will again be prolific but the defense coughed up various big leads in 2018, finishing 105th in pass ranking and 76th in rush ranking (31.9 PPG). OK, Ole Miss' defense stunk in 2018 but expect MacIntyre to make a difference. Ole Miss returns 11 of their 12 top-tacklers plus a probable top CB in Jaylon Jones, who missed 11 games due to a torn ACL. Ole Miss could really use a confidence boosting victory to set the tone for this season and the Rebels will likely have lots of support at the Liberty Bowl, which is just an hour or so from Oxford. Speaking of 'leaky' defenses, the Memphis D gave up 93 points in its losses in the AAC championship game loss (UCF) and the Birmingham Bowl loss (Wake Forest). Memphis also lost "big-time" at Missouri last season (an equally bad SEC defensive team, ala Ole Miss), 65-33! I'm taking the points! Good luck...Larry |
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08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -108 | 97 h 6 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* August Game of the Month is on Florida St at 7:00 ET (note: game has been moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee). The Boise St Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs BC was cancelled due to inclement weather) but the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the L20 years. The beat should go on at Boise this season, as the Broncos look to secure their 18th straight bowl berth. The Broncos open their 2019 season with a trip to Tallahassee(game moved from Jacksonville due to weather issues) where they will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Willie Taggart's 1st season in Tallahassee was an unqualified 'disaster,' as FSU's 5-7 finish was the school's worst s/1975. More notably, its bowl streak of 36 straight appearances came to an end. The Seminoles losing record was no fluke, as FSU lost FIVE games by 21 points or more, including a 59-10 loss to Clemson. There is little doubt that Boise will again be "bowl-bound," as unlike in 2018 when the Broncos faced FOUR ranked teams, they may not face ANY in 2019. However, there are a ton of questions on the offensive side of the ball for Boise heading into 2019. 4-year starter Brett Rypien has finally graduated and left as the MWC’s all-time leading passer with 13,578 yards. The successor remained up in the air into fall camp, as five candidates who had attempted just 10 passes between them were competing in the spring. Hank Bachmeier has been hailed as one of the best recruits in Boise State history and just recently, head coach Bryan Harsin said Bachmeier will be the Broncos’ starting QB for their 2019 season opener. “Hank earned it,” Harsin said. “It wasn’t given to him. ... He made throws, he completed passes, he did things in the pocket and he made decisions out there that we want to see. And whether a freshman, senior, doesn’t matter, those are the things that we’re looking for at that position.” That said, Boise St lost its top-2 WRs from 2018 and early NFL draftee RB Alex Mattison (1,415 YR, 17 TDs) leaves a 'hole' in the backfield. No returning RB gained as much as 200 yards in 2018 (Harsin has talked about a "RB by committee"option) so Boise’s string of 10 straight years with a 1000-yard rusher might come to end. FSU had QB questions coming into this season as well, but head coach Willie Taggart made the announcement last Sunday that James Blackman has won the starting job. Blackman beat out Wisconsin graduate transfer Alex Hornibrook and Louisville transfer Jordan Travis. Blackman has started 13 games, including 12 as a true freshman in 2017. He has thrown for 2,740 yards, 24 TDs & 12 INTs at FSU. In his only 2018 start, Blackman threw for 421 yards, four TDs and one interception in a 47-28 road loss to NC State. Taggert’s offense will have a different look this year with new O.C. Kendall Briles running the show. Briles’ features a fast-paced but simplified attack and expect Blackman to utilize an up-tempo attack, looking to keep the Broncos defense on its heels. Speaking of defense, EIGHT of FSU's top-10 tacklers are back and the unit has pledged to but last season's collapse (allowed 42.0 PPG its last five) in "the rear-view mirror." I'm predicting a big "bounce-back" season for Taggert and FSU, as the Seminoles are loaded and athletic across the board. I expect the Boise D to be "on its heels," struggling in the heat and humidity of a "Hot August Night" in Florida (something the boys from Idaho can't simulate in practice). Yes, QB Hank Bachmeier is highly-touted but expect the true freshman to be in for a 'LONG' night against a highly-motivated and athletic FSU defense. I'm calling a two-TD 'cover' from FSU! Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-19 | Utah -6.5 v. BYU | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Utah at 10:15 ET. You know it's a bitter rivalry when the schools involved can't even agree on when the first game was played. Utah claims a lead of 61–34–4, while BYU claims Utah leads 58–31–4, as BYU does not count the six games between Utah and Brigham Young Academy in its records (played prior to 1922). Either way, Utah has a large lead in the overall series and dominated the rivalry prior to 1972 by going 41–8–4. Then, BYU dominated the series with a record of 19–2 from 1972 to 1992. However, since 1993, Utah is 18-7, including EIGHT straight wins. Despite some key late-season injuries in 2018, Utah finished atop the South standings (6-3) for the 1st time since entering the Pac-12 in 2011, before losing a hard-fought 10-3 defensive battle to Washington in the Pac-12 champ game. The Utes would then lose 31-20 to Northwestern in the Holiday bowl to finish 9-5. However, at the Pac-12 media gathering in July, the Utes garnered 33 of the 35 1st-place votes in the South & edged the North’s Oregon (11 votes) & Washington (nine) with 12 votes as the projected conference title game winner. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's 1st losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss (an All-Pac 12 preseason choice) are both ready to go in 2019. They both missed LY's Pac-12 championship loss, as well as the Utes' bowl loss. Huntley is back after missing the L5 games of 2018 with a broken collarbone. When healthy, he is a dual threat at QB. As for Moss, he racked up 1,096 yards (6.1 YPC) & 11 TDs in just nine games, before a knee injury ended his season early. On the other side of the ball, Utah boasts one of the nation’s top DLs, led by Bradlee Anae, Leki Fotu and John Penisini. The talented secondary is led by preseason All-Pac 12 first-team selections Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson. Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his 4th season at BYU and the offense will be led by soph QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TDPs in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). The team's rushing attack is a question mark, as LY's leading rusher Lopini Katoa ran for only 423 yards (5.6 YPC / 8 TDs). BYU played good defense last season, allowing a modest 21.4 PPG on 325.2 YPG and its strength this year will be a seconddary that returns CB Chris Wilcox plus safeties Dayan Ghanwoloku & Austin Lee (trio combined for 31 starts last season). BYU blew a 27-7 lead with a minute left in the 3rd Q of LY's game, before suffering a painful 35-27 defeat in Salt Lake City. Revenge? With a visit to Tennessee up next and then back-to-back home games against USC and Washington, winning here will be even more important. That said, BYU has had played with revenge vs Utah for some time now, as Utah has won EIGHT straight in the series. Whittingham has quite a run at Utah since taking over for Urban Meyer after the 2004 season. He's led the Utes to 12 bowls the L14 years, winning 10. His teams have finished in the final AP poll FIVE times, including a No. 2 finish back in 2008, when the team capped a 13-0 season with a 31-17 Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. In 2014, 2015 & 2016, the Utes finished ranked after beginning the season unranked. This year's team may not be as special as the 2008 one (no way) but Utah is ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll and it's well-deserved. Expect more 'pain' to come BYU's way in yet another "Holy War." Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL +7.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 130 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Battle 4 Florida is on Miami-Fl at 7:00 ET. The Gators fell apart under Jim McElwain, going 4-7 in 2017. To the rescue came Miss St head coach Dan Mullen, who had earlier served as Urban Meyer’s O.C. for two Florida national-title teams (2006 and 2008). Tim Tebow, flourished under Mullen, as did Miss St QBs Dak Prescott and Nick Fitzgerald. The Gators became relevant again in 2018, finishing 10-4 in 2018 after its 41-15 romp over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. Mark Richt led Miami to a 9-4 record in his first season (2016). Much was expected of the 2017 team and Miami opened 9-0, including wins over then-No. 13 Va Tech (28-10) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (41-8), to open November. Miami reached 10-0 with a win over UVa the following week and played its final regular season game at Pittsburgh, ranked No. 2 in the nation. The 'Canes lost 24-14 and then got crushed 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC title game. That Notre Dame win was supposed to be a watershed event but it instead became the apex of the Richt era. The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after that 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Manny Diaz was Miami's DC from 2016-18 and after Richt's retirement on December 30, 2018, Diaz was hired as head coach. The “Mullen Magic” worked a year ago for Gator QB Feleipe Franks, who had disappointed for McElvain as a freshman in 2017. He had 24 TDPs and just six INTs, after a 9-8 ratio in 2017. He developed into a real SEC signal-caller last year under Mullen. The top-seven pass catchers return from 2018 and RB Lamical Perine needs 1,189 rushing yards to become the Gators’ first 3,000-yard career rusher since Earnest Graham at the end of the Steve Spurrier era. A worry could be replacing four multi-year starters along the OL. Retaining DC Todd Grantham was good news, as in wins against Florida State and Michigan to cap the 2018 season, the D forced five TOs, recorded 10 sacks, and held the Seminoles and Wolverines to a combined 7-for-30- on third downs. Seven starters return. No one can blame Diaz' D for LY's 'collapse. Diaz is considered the mastermind behind the "Turnover Chain," a Cuban link chain with a charm in the shape of the school's iconic "U" logo. Despite the team's 7-6 record in 2018, Miami ranked No. 2 in total defense and ranked No. 1 in several other categories. In fact, Miami led the nation in “havoc rate” (total combined tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles, divided by total plays) a year ago. Offense, or the lack thereof, is what held back the "U" a year ago. Miami ranked 105th in total offense and an embarrassing 113th in passing, as neither senior Malik Rosier nor red-shirt freshman N’Kosi Perry provided anything remotely like consistency at the QB spot. In fact, the most important Diaz hire might be new OC Dan Enos, a former Michigan State QB and onetime HC at Central Michigan, who was most recently the QB coach for Nick Saban’s Alabama staff. It turns out that Jarren Williams, who was highly recruited but couldn’t get in a game last year (he did get in one, playing garbage time against cupcake Savannah State, going 1 for 3 for 17 yards), has beaten out Perry and highly-touted Ohio St transfer, Tate Martell. Diaz has made a bold choice and Williams gets tested right away vs Florida in Orlando (Gators are ranked No. 8 in the preseason coaches' poll). Not many expected Florida to return to the top-10 as quickly as it did a year ago and I'm one who believes the Gators are rated too high this early. These two rivals used to play annually but haven’t faced off since 2013 (Miami won 21-16) and not in an opener since 1987, when the 'Canes won 31-4. I guess Orlando is "closer to home" for Florida than it is for Miami but I want the points with the MUCH better defensive team. Good luck...Larry |
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01-01-19 | Washington v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -112 | 485 h 56 m | Show |
My 10*LEGEND Play is on Ohio State at 5:00 ET. Ohio St did not make the CFP's 'Final Four,' so Urban Meyer's last game as the Buckeyes' head coach will be the105th edition of the Rose Bowl from Pasadena, Ca. The year started with controversy for Meyer and the Ohio St program and Meyer announced that he would be stepping down as coach after the contest, primarily because of stress-related headaches stemming from a cyst on his brain. He leads the Buckeyes into this game with an 82-9 record which includes winning the 2014 national title during seven seasons at the school. Washington opened the 2018 season ranked 6th in the AP's preseason poll but lost its first game, to then-No. 9 Auburn, 21-16.The Huskies would lose two more times before winning the Apple Cup game 28-15 at Washington St to clinch the Pac-12 North title on Nov 23rd. Washington then beat Utah 10-3 in the Pac-12 championship game on Dec 1, to clinch this Rose Bowl berth. The 10-3 Huskies are ranked 9th in both the AP poll and CFP standings. This marks the first time the Big Ten champion and Pac-12 champion have met in the Rose Bowl since the College Football Playoff began in 2014. Both schools are making their 15th Rose Bowl appearances but the schools have never previously met in Pasadena. Senior QB Jake Browning is the school's all-time leader in career passing yardage (11,983) and TD passes (94) but he has battled consistency issues the last two seasons. He had 47 TD passes and just nine INTs as a sophomore but followed with a 19-5 ratio as a junior, before falling to a 16-10 ratio this season. Senior RB Myles Gaskin is the program's all-time leader with 5,202 rushing yards and he's had no "drop-off issues," as his 1,147 rushing yards this season marked his fourth straight 1,000-yard campaign. The Washington offense averages a modest 26.6 PPG (86th) but its defense checks in allowing 15.5 PPG (6th) on 301.8 YPG (12th). Ohio State wins games with a flashy offense behind sophomore QB Dwayne Haskins Jr. Haskins completed 70.2 percent of his passes in his first season as a starter, throwing for 4,580 yards with 47 TD passes and only eight INTs. Dobbins has 1,029 yards and Weber 858, as the Ohio St rushing game averages 175.9 YPG. Ohio St enters averaging 43.5 PPG (7th) on 548.9 YPG (2nd). However, the defense is a worry, as outside of Ohio State's 25-6 win at Michigan St, the Buckeyes D allowed 38.8 PPG in five of its last six games. Bottom line is that there are strong fundamental, technical and psychological advantages for Ohio State. The Buckeyes own a very well-balanced offense and while Washington has an excellent D, no one has stopped Ohio St all season. Meanwhile, Ohio State's recent defensive woes should not be exposed by Washington's below-average offense, led by Browning, who has been in a two-year free-fall (hard to call it a slump,anymore). Technically, Washington was just 4-9 ATS this season and is only 1-7 SU in their last eight bowl games when facing Power-5 opponents. teams. SIX of those losses have come by seven points or more plus the Huskies are only 2-7 ATS their last nine playing outside the Pac-12. Moving to Urban Meyer, his teams have covered 10 of 13 bowl games dating to his days coaching Florida and Utah. Ohio State is 36-14-1 ATS when not laying seven or more points the last 12 years (line is hovering around that number and I was able to lay 6.5). Finally, there's a likely emotional edge with Meyer stepping down and the team must still be a little ticked off at being left out of the college championship playoff. Lay it!! |
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01-01-19 | LSU -7 v. Central Florida | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
My 9* Fiesta Bowl Play is on LSU at 1:00 ET. UCF tries to complete its second straight perfect season when it takes on No. 11 LSU (9-3) in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan 1 from Glendale, Az. The Knights ended last season 13-0 with a 34-27 victory over Auburn in the Peach Bowl and enter this game 12-0 and ranked 7th in the CFP standings and No. 8 in the AP poll (the school's best-ever ranking in either poll). It's deja vu all over again this season for UCF, as this trip to a New Year’s Day Six Bowl is no different than the feelings of resentment it felt toward the CFP selection committee for again being dismissed from the championship race and once again needing to prove itself against an SEC opponent (see last year vs Auburn). LSU was 7-1 and ranked No. 3 when it lost 29-0 at home vs No. 1 Alabama on Nov 3. The Tigers would end the season on a 1-3 ATS skid, the team's only cover coming as a three-point dog in a 74-72 (7-OT) loss at Texas A&M. LSU junior QB Joe Burrow has thrown for 2,500 yards and 12 TDs but is completing just 57.4 percent of his passes. Senior RB Nick Brossette waited his turn behind Derrius Guice and Leonard Fournette for three years before getting his chance in 2018. He's run for 922 yards and 14 TDs. LSU averages 31.8 PPG (41st) and its defense is strong, allowing 20.9 PPG (24th) on 346.1 YPG (29th). QB McKenzie Milton (2,663 yards with a 25-6 ratio plus 9 rushing TDs) suffered a serious knee injury early in UCF's regular-season finale but the Knights won that game and then overcame a 38-21 halftime deficit against Memphis in the AAC title game to win, 56-41. Freshman QB Darriel Mack Jr. Burrow, an Ohio State transfer, completed 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards with two TDs and zero INTs, while running for four scores. The UCF defense allows 425.5 YPG (86th) but just 21.2 PPG (25th). 22 UCF seniors are determined to leave with 26 straight wins but I believe the Knights are in a "bad spot" in this one. LSU is 'bowling' for the 19th straight season and coming off that seven-OT loss in its regular season finale, will be looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since late 2015! This is the SEC vs the AAC and that's a no-brainer. I realize that UCF took down Auburn last year but that was with Milton. Yes, Mack was a star vs Memphis but the Tigers lost their bowl game to Wake Forest on Dec 22 (not exactly a FB powerhouse), allowing 37 points. When's the last time a school recorded back-to-back perfect seasons? Try Nebraska in 1994 and 1995! Lay it with LSU. Good luck...Larry |
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01-01-19 | Iowa v. Mississippi State -7 | 27-22 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My 9* Outback Bowl Play is on Miss St at 12:00 ET. It will be warm Tuesday afternoon in Tampa (in the 80s), as a pair of 8-4 teams take the field at Raymond James Stadium for the Outback Bowl. Iowa enters unranked, while Miss St is 18th in both the AP poll and the final CFP standings. The Hawkeyes were 6-1 and ranked 18th when they lost 30-24 at Penn St on Oct 27, a defeat which began a three-game slide. The Bulldogs beat two ranked teams at home (Auburn and Texas A&M), while losing at LSU and Alabama (got outscored 43-3). Both teams own excellent defenses, Iowa ranks 10th in allowing 17.4 PPG) on 289.6 YPG (7th). Meanwhile, Miss St ranks first in both points allowed (12.0 per) and 268.4 YPG. Junior QB Nate Stanley had 23 TD passes this season and threw for 2,638 yards. His 26 TD throws in 2017 gives him 49 TD passes in 2017-18, tying him with Chuck Long for the most over a two-year span in Iowa history. His top targets are a pair of draft-worthy TEs, Noah Fant and Mackey Award winner T.J. Hockenson. Fant has elected to skip the bowl game to begin preparing for the 2019 NFL Draft, while Hockenson has yet to announce whether he will turn pro but he will play here.Iowa averages a modest 389.7 YPG (79th) but scores a better than expected 31.5 PPG (42nd). The Bulldogs are led by senior QB Nick Fitzgerald, who has thrown for 1,1615 yards with 15 TDs and seven INTs. He leads the team in rushing with 1,018 yards on 5.1 YPC with 12 rushing scores. Fitzgerald has been responsible for 99 total TDs in his career, owns the SEC record for most 100-yard rushing games by a quarterback (20) and is the only QB in conference history to run for more than 3,000 yards. Fitzgerald struggled the first six games this year (46.7% with 4 TDs and 7 INTs) but over his final five games, he completed 61% with 11 TDs without throwing a single INT! Expect Fitzgerald to be pumped for his final college game, as he missed LY’s TaxSlayer Bowl due to an ankle injury, Iowa is 0-3 as an underdog this year and note that every one of Miss St's eight wins in 2018 have come by 14 points or more (average margin of victory 34.1 PPG). Helpful hint. SEC vs Big Ten in TY's bowl season. Aub 63-14 over Purdue and Florida 41-15 over Michigan. Good luck...Larry |
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12-31-18 | NC State v. Texas A&M -5 | Top | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 463 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year is on Texas A&M at 7:30 ET. Monday night's Gator Bowl features the ACC's 9-3 NC State Wolfpack going up against the SEC's 8-4 Texas A&M Aggies. It will be the first-ever meeting between the two schools. NC State's Dave Doeren is taking his Wolfpack team to its fifth straight bowl (3-1 SU & ATS), including impressive wins the last two, a 41-17 romp over Vandy in the 2016 Independence Bowl and a 52-31 shootout win over Arizona State in 2017 Sun Bowl. Jimbo Fisher will get a chance to win his first bowl game with Texas A&M, after going 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in bowls at FSU (includes guiding Florida State to the National Championship in 2013 34-31 over Auburn). NC State QB Ryan Finley led the ACC in passing with 3,789 yards, more than 1,000 more than the next-closest QB (he has 24 TD passes and just nine INTs). WRs Kelvin Harmon (81 catches /1,186 yards) and Jakobi Meyers (89 catches / 1,028 yards) became the first pair of teammates in school history to each go over 1,000 yards in the same season. However, the NC State running game offers little support, averaging 143.8 YPG (98th). Defensively, the Wolfpack are strong, allowing 22.7 PPG (37th) on 380.2 YPG (55th). Florida St QB Kellen Mond is not as prolific as Finely (2,967 yards) but owns a similar TD/INT ratio (23-8). However, Mond is supported by an excellent running game (203.8 YPG ranks 33rd), led by Trayveon Williams(1,524 yards / 6.0 YPC / 15 TDs). On the defensive side of the ball, Texas A&M is allowing 26.3 PPG (58th) but the Aggies actually allow less yards than NC State (354.7 YPG to rank 34th, including only 92.0 YPG on the ground, 2nd-best in the nation). NC State opened 5-0 to reach No. 16 in the AP poll but a 41-7 loss on Oct 20 at Clemson, began a stretch of THREE losses in four games. The Wolfpack rebounded to win their final three games, but those victories came against 2-10 Louisville, 2-9 North Carolina and 3-9 East Carolina. Fisher remade the Aggies into a more physical team in his first year on the job and few will forget A&M's 74-72, seven-overtime triumph over LSU in their regular-season finale. Expect Fisher's 1st A&M team to end 2018 in a BIG way! Good luck...Larry |
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12-31-18 | Missouri v. Oklahoma State +10 | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider (Liberty Bowl) is on Oklahoma St at 3:45 ET. Missouri and Oklahoma State were rivals in the Big Eight and Big 12 conferences, before Missouri’s move to the SEC in 2012. The Tigers lead the all-time series 29-23, including a 41-31 win in the Cotton Bowl following the 2013 season. The two former conference rivals meet in Monday's Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tn. The Tigers were 7-6 last season but enter this game 8-4. The Tigers opened 3-0, while averaging 43.7 PPG. However, a stretch of FOUR losses in five games followed, before Mizzou went 4-0 SU & ATS in Nov, averaging 39.8 PPG. Oklahoma State entered 2018 off three consecutive 10-3 seasons and opened 3-0. However, the then-No. 16 Cowboys lost 41-17 at home to Texas Tech, as 14 1/2-point favorites. That loss began a 3-6 closing run by Oklahoma State, which left the Cowboys just 6-6 after a 31-24 season-ending loss at TCU. A loss here and it would be OSU's first losing season since Mike Gundy's first year in Stillwater. That 2005 team finished 4-7. Missouri is led by QB Drew Lock, who passed for 3,125 yards with 25 TDs and just eight INTs. The running game is led Larry Rountree III (1,012 rushing yards & 10 TDs). The Tigers are averaging 36.9 PPG (19th) on 468.8 YPG (16th). The defense is better than average, allowing 24.4 PPG (45th) on 379.0 YPG (51st). Okla St also owns a quality QB, as Taylor Cornelius threw for 3,637 yards with 28 TDs and just 11 TDs. The offense is slightly better than Missouri's, averaging 38.4 PPG (14th) on 499.2 YPG (10th). However, OSU's weakness is on defense. The Cowboys gave up over 300 passing yards five times and also allowed more than 200 rushing on five occasions. OSU enters allowing 32.4 PPG, which ranks 97th. Barry Odom's Missouri offense could be without a few weapons, as RB Damarea Crockett (ankle), WR Jalen Knox (concussion) and TE Albert Okwuegbunam (shoulder) were all were banged up at the end of the regular season. Let me also note that Lock was more efficient last season, when he had 44-13 ratio and threw for almost 4,000 yards. A closer look at Missouri's season reveals that the Tigers played the roll of 'bully,' running up big scores when they had fundamental edges. That's NOT the case here. It's also important to note that during OSU's 3-6 closing skid, the Cowboys beat then-No. 6 Texas 38-35 and then-No. 9 West Va 45-41 in Stillwater, while losing just 48-47 at then-No. 6 Oklahoma (as 21 1/2-point underdogs). Missouri ended last year's regular season with six straight wins (and on a 7-1 ATS run) but flopped badly in the Texas Bowl against Texas, 33-16 (Mizzou had four TOs). OSU is more than capable of matching the Tigers score for score and I see another flop coming, here. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech +6 v. Cincinnati | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* Military Bowl Play is on Va Tech at 12 noon ET. A four-game losing streak left Va Tech 4-6 and needing to win its final two games to qualify for a bowl. The Hokies eked out a 34-31 OT win at home against Virginia and then beat Marshall 41-20 at home, a contest that was added late in the season as a replacement for one postponed by Hurricane Florence. 6-6 Va Tech now takes on Cincinnati in the Military bowl, making its 26th consecutive bowl appearance, the nation's longest active streak (note; it's the third-longest streak in NCAA history). In contrast to Va Tech, Cincinnati has been one of the better stories of the CFB 2018 season, going from 4-8 in 2017, to 10-2 in Luke Fickell's second year as the school's head coach. The Bearcats are going for just their third 11-win season in the program's 131-year history and have an 8-9 all-time postseason record. Cincinnati returns to postseason play for the first time since the 2015 Hawaii Bowl and will play in its 18th bowl game all time, although its 10th in the last 13 seasons. Redshirt freshman Desmond Ridder was named the AAC Rookie of the Year, as the QB is true dual-threat, completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,359 yards and 19 TDs while adding another 574 yards rushing along with five more scores. Michael Warren II, the Bearcats' first 1,000-yard rusher since 2012, gained 1,163 yards, along with a school-record 18 total TDs and a school-record tying 17 rushing scores. The offense averages 34.9 PPG (25th) on 458.2 YPG (24th). However, Cincy's best unit is its defense, which allows 16.1 PPG (6th) on 292.2 YPG (8th). The defense is led by All-AAC first team defensive end Cortez Broughton. Va Tech's offense started to struggle after a season-ending injury to QB Josh Jackson. However, Ryan Willis became a serviceable replacement by year's end, passing for 2,497 yards and 22 TDs and just eight INTs (he had 332 yards passing in the finale vs Marshall to get the Hokies bowl-eligible). However, the difference between this and past Va Tech editions is on the defensive side of the ball. Veteran DC Bud Foster has had to force-feed a young unit that's allowed 30.7 PPG (85th) on 436.8 YPG (98th). At first blush (and on paper), Cincinnati is the superior team. However, looking more closely at the Bearcats' 10-win season, let's note that the only Power-5 opponent they played was UCLA (Bruins endured their worst season in 55 years) plus Cincy lost to the two best AAC foes it faced (in OT at Temple & 38-13 at UCF). Tech endured a tough non-league schedule and then faced a combative ACC one. Note that Va Tech ended the year by beating Virginia & Marshall. In case you are unaware, Marshall won its bowl game 38-20 playing at USF on Dec 20 and Virginia beat SEC-rep South Carolina 28-0 in the Belk Bow (Dec 29). Va Tech opened the 2018 season with a Labor Day 24-7 win at Florida State (as a 7-point underdog). Don't be surprised if the Hokies win this one OUTRIGHT (at around a TD underdog), on the last day of 2018, as well! Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-18 | Arkansas State v. Nevada -1 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Under the Radar Rout is on Nevada at 1:15 ET. Arkansas State and Nevada were briefly conference-mates in the Big West Conference in the mid-90s and the two schools will meet for the first time since 1999 when they meet in the Arizona Bowl on Dec 29 at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Az. This event is only in its fourth year but Nevada has fond memories after it won the inaugural Arizona Bowl over MWC rival Colorado State in 2015. The Wolf Pack return to the postseason for the first time since that game, after the program did a quick re-boot the past two seasons under head coach Jay Norvell. Arkansas State won five of its last six games (averaged 40.0 PPG in that span) with the lone loss coming against Louisiana 47-43, a defeat that cost the Red Wolves the West Division title and a spot in the Sun Belt championship game. Arkansas State brings a four-game winning streak into this game. Senior QB Justice Hansen passed for 3,172 yards with 27 TDs, while being intercepted just SIX times (he was named the Sun Belt Player of the Year). The offense averages 464.8 YPG (20th) and 31.8 PPG (45th). Hansen ran for 399 yards, while adding six TDs. Defensively, Arkansas St allows 26.4 PPG (59th) on 376.8 YPG (48th). Nevada QB Ty Gangi ranks 11th nationally in total offense (298.2 YPG) and completed 250-of-409 passes for 3,131 yards with 23 TDs and 11 INTs. He leads an offense averaging 32.3 PPG (40th) on 443.2 YPG (32nd). Nevada's defense owns similar numbers to Arkansas State's, allowing 28.1 PPG (71st) on 378.2 YPG (50th). Red Wolves' QB Hansen does a few more things than Gangi, namely running. However, his TD pass total dropped from 37 to 27 this season. That said, Gangi has a more-accomplished group of WRs, led by McLane Mannix (17.5 YPC and 7 TDs) and Kaleb Fossum (68 catches). Arkansas State is in more familiar territory in the postseason, appearing in its eighth straight bowl but under head coach Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves have lost THREE of four. As for Nevada, it finished tied for second in the West Division of the MWC and had a four-game winning streak snapped in its regular-season finale by in-state rival UNLV, blowing a 23-0 first half lead in a 34-29 loss. Sure, the people in Reno are paying more attention these days to Nevada basketball (12-0 Wolf Pack are currently ranked No. 6) but on Saturday, the football team takes center stage and gets the "W." Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-18 | South Carolina -5 v. Virginia | 0-28 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener is on South Carolina at 12:00 ET. South Carolina and Virginia meet for the first time since 2003, and for the first time in a bowl game, when the two schools square off at the Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC. The 7-5 Gamecocks finished in a tie for fourth in the SEC East, going 4-2 down the stretch, losing only at Florida (35-31) and Clemson (56-35). The 7-5 Cavaliers tied for third in the ACC Coastal Division but limp into this bowl game as losers of THREE of four, with their only win in that stretch against Liberty. The Gamecocks will be missing WR Deebo Samuel in this game, who accounted for 123.2 all-purpose YPG in 2018 (scored 13 TDs). South Carolina is 'bowling' for a third straight year under head coach Will Muschamp. However, South Carolina lacked game-to-game consistency, with its only two-game win skein coming in narrow victories over non-bowl teams Ole Miss and Tennessee (by a combined seven points). The Gamecock offense averages 32.6 PPG (39th) on 440.8 YPG (35th). Junior QB Jake Bentley (63.9% with 27 TD passes and 12 INTs) started slow (7-6 TD/INT ratio in his first four starts) but picked up the pace over his last six contests after sitting out the win over Missouri with an injury, he completed 63.4%, while fashioning a 20-6 TD-INT ratio. The South Carolina D allows 27.2 PPG (67th) on 429.8 YPG (82nd). Virginia QB Bryce Perkins, a junior college transfer, piled up 3,314 all-purpose yards while accounting for 31 TDs in his first season with the Cavaliers. He is a legitimate dual-threat, passing for 2,472 yards on 203-of-318 passing, while running for 842 yards and nine TDs on 197 carries. The offense averages 28.5 YPG (69th) on 382.2 YPG (85th) but the defense keeps them in most games, allowing 21.8 PPG (27th) on 337.2 YPG (24th). The Cavaliers had some easy games on their schedule early in the season and converted them into wins but struggled down the stretch with conference losses to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. That said, it was a milestone year for the program, getting its first winning season since 2011 and returning to a bowl game for the second year in a row. The Gamecocks had five losses on the season and ALL of them came at the hands of ranked opponents; No. 2 Clemson, No. 6 Georgia, No. 10 Florida, No. 15 Kentucky, and No. 20 Texas A&M. South Carolina is 2-0 under coach Will Muschamp in bowl games, including last year’s 26-19 win over Michigan in the Outback Bowl. Make that 3-0, as the SEC rep is 6-0 S & 5-0-1 ATS since 2011 in this bowl. The Gamecocks are the play. Good luck...Larry |
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12-28-18 | Iowa State v. Washington State -3.5 | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -100 | 393 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play (1st of 2 this bowl season) is on Washington State at 9:00 ET. The Iowa State and Washington State football programs have each been around for approximately 125 years, but they'll meet for the first time on Dec 28 in San Antonio at the Valero Alamo Bowl. The Cyclones opened 1-3 but they rallied behind freshman QB Brock Purdy. Purdy made his first career start Oct 13 in a game vs then-No. 6 West Va, with Iowa St winning, 30-14. He threw three TD passes against teh Mountaineers remained a steady force for the Cyclones in leading them to a 6-1 mark as a starter. Washington State was not just unranked in the preseason, the Cougars didn't even crack the "others receiving votes," list. However, graduate transfer QB Gardner Minshew turned in the most surprising performance of the season. He led the Cougars to a 10-1 record (No. 7 in the AP and No. 8 in the CFP rankings), before losing the Apple Cup 28-15 to Washington on Nov 23 (more on that later).. One could make a strong case that this is the best Iowa State team in decades. The No. 25th-ranked Cyclones cracked the final regular season poll for the first time since 1976, and their third-place finish in the Big 12 is their best since 1978. Head coach Matt Campbell shared the Big 12 Coach of the Year award. RB David Montgomery has run for for 1092 yards and 12 TDs. Frosh QB Brock Purdy took over at mid-season after an injury first to starter Kyle Kempt and then the abrupt departure of backup Zeb Noland, who intends to transfer. Purdy completed 66% of his passes for 1,935 yards with 16 TDs and just 5 INTs while playing in only 9 games. The defense is top-notch, allowing 22.5 PPG (35th) on 351.0 YPG (37th). Speaking of defense (not typically associated with a Mike Leach team), the Cougars' stop unit is just as good. WSU allows 23.1 PPG (38th) on 345.9 YPG (29th). That said, Washington St has gotten here on teh arm of graduate transfer, QB Gardner Minshew,. During the first 11 games, teams just couldn’t slow him down. The former East Carolina QB led the FBS with 4,477 passing yards, completed 70.6% and had a 36-9 TD-INT ratio. In two seasons at ECU he was good (3,487 YP, 24 TD & 11 INT. in 17 games), but NOT this good! WSU's average of 38.3 PPG ranks 15th in the nation. While I acknowledged that this may be Iowa State's best team in decades, I do NOT believe this year's Ctyclone team is in the class of the Cougars. The snowy conditions played a big role in Washington State's loss to Washington last month, as Minshew didn't throw a TD pass for the first time this season and was held to 152 passing yards after passing for at least 319 in every other game. The team's 237 total yards against the Huskies was its worst offensive output since 2013. Washington State was 10-1 and in the conversation for a potential berth in the College Football Playoff, before getting derailed by that snowstorm, getting shut down against rival Washington in the Apple Cup. However, Minshew won't have to deal with adverse weather conditions inside the Alamodome. What's more, the Cougars might have a pretty big chip on their shoulders after they were left out of a New Year's Six bowl, despite winning 10 games. Simply put, I believe Wash St is CLEARLY the better team, making this pointspread a 'cheap' lay! Good luck…Larry |