Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-28-17 | Texas -4 v. Iowa State | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 97 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on Texas (8:00 EST). Texas will be eager to return to the winners circle after a frustrating 27-24 OT loss to USC. Iowa State on the other hand looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 42-14 win over Akron. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Longhorns have to be liking their chances for a bounce back this weekend, because when these teams met last year it was Texas that cruised to the convincing 27-6 road victory. Longhorns’ QB Sam Ehlinger was 21 of 40 for 298 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The ground game was the issue though, posting just 68 yards on 35 carries. WR Collin Johnson was unstoppable, making seven catches for 191 yards. Perhaps most impressively though was the way the Texas defense played, considering the high-powered opponent they were up against, limiting USC to 468 total yards (OT as well), as well as making two INT’s and three sacks. Cyclones’ QB Jacob Park was 24 of 33 for 317 yards and two TD’s last week. So far Park has 935 yards passing. RB David Montgomery also had a big day, posting 127 rushing yards. The ISU defense also looked good last week, holding Akron to 331 total yards, including just 38 on the ground. Park is an amazing talent, but I still think that Texas is better through all three phases of the game. The Longhorns just took the Trojans down to the wire and I think the team carries that impressive momentum over into this one for a convincing victory. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-17 | Penn State v. Iowa +13 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 102 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* BIG-TEN PERFECT STORM is on Iowa (7:30 EST). Penn State has so far dominated to open the 2017/18 campaign, going 3-0 and giving up just 14 points in the process. Iowa is also 3-0 and comes in off an easy victory over North Texas last weekend. Note that this sets up as a “triple-revenge” scenario for the Hawkeyes. Last year the Nittany Lions won 41-14. So far Penn State has averaged 47 points through the first three games, most recently handling Georgia State 56-0. QB Trace McSorely was 18 of 23 for 309 yards and a TD, while RB Saquon Barkley had four catches for 142 yards and a TD. Iowa also looked sharp in its 31-14 win over North Texas, going for 21 unanswered points in the second half. In all three different backs recorded double-digit carries for the Hawkeyes. Toren Young led the charge with 78 yards on 19 carries, while Ivory Kelly-Martin had 74 yards and two TD’s. QB Nathan Stanley was 16 of 27 for 197 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. I’ll point out that Penn State has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, while Iowa has excelled by going 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records. Iowa is always tough at home and while I’m obviously not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hawkeyes can keep this one competitive late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-17 | San Diego State v. Air Force +3.5 | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* MOUNTAIN-WEST PERFECT STORM is on Air Force (7:00 EST). SDSU upset Stanford and has broken into the Top 25 because of it. Suffice it to say, I think this conference matchup sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Aztecs after their big upset win. Air Force on the other hand will be eager to return to form after falling to Michigan late last weekend. But as stated off the top, after back-to-back win over Pac-12 opponents, I think SDSU comes out flat here. In all SDSU posted 353 yards against Standford, while limiting the Cardinal to just 80 passing yards. Stanford also uncharacteristically turned the ball over three times. San Diego State QB Christian Chapman was 21 of 29 for 187 yards and a TD, while RB Rashad Penny had 175 yards. The Falcons fell away late in their 29-13 setback to Michigan. Air Force only tried one pass and completed it, a 64 yarder by QB Arion Worthman to Ronald Cleveland. The Falcons though had 168 rushing yards. SDSU is playing pretty good defensively right now, but it still doesn’t possess a Power Five-caliber line, so I’m expecting Air Force’s option offense to look a lot better tonight. I’ll point out as well that San Diego State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Air Force is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as an underdog. SDSU is 6-1 ATS in the last seven in this series, but I think this lop-sided trend starts to correct itself this evening. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-17 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Georgia Tech | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* ACC PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:20 EST). Pittsburgh won its opener but has dropped its last two games, both against Top 10 teams, getting outscored 92-35 in the process. Georgia Tech lost by one point to Tennesee in Week 1, before then earning a victory over lowly Jacksonville State in its most recent. The Yellow Jackets’ game against UCF was cancelled because of Hurricane Irma last week, so the possibilty of “rest” leading to “rust” is a very real factor in my opinion. Georgia Tech’s offense is completely centered around the run, currently ranked first in the nation with 372.5 rushing yards per game, while ranked just 123rd in passing yards per contest. The Panthers gave up 572 passing yards to Oklahoma State last week, but just 104 on the ground. Clearly the visitors’ gassed secondary catches a big break this week though with the Yellow Jackets’ run heavy offensive scheme. Pitt QB Ben Dinucci had 228 yards and a TD, but he had two INT’s as well. Overall the Panthers had 103 rushing yards. Georgia Tech had 210 yards rushing against Jacksonville State, while holding JSU to just 189 total yards and three turnovers. In their first game the Yellow Jackets posted 535 rushing yards in what turned out to be a heart-wrenching double OT loss to Tennessee. Ultimately though I think Pittsburgh comes in and at the right moment, catching a Georgia Tech team flat-footed after the extra time off. I’ll point out as well that the underdog and the road team are 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this series. Grab as many points as you can, play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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09-22-17 | Virginia +11.5 v. Boise State | Top | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 79 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH is on Virginia (8:00 EST). Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? I’m not at all. I do think however that the Cavs can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Virginia enters off a 38-18 home win over UConn on Saturday, while Boise State enters off a 28-14 home victory over New Mexico last Thursday. The Cavs had a 24-0 halftime lead and never looked back last weekend, outgaining the Huskies 626-432. So far Virginia is 17th in the country in passing with 325.3 YPG and 83rd overall in scoring with 27.7 points. The Cavs have been even better defensively though so far, allowing just 20.7 PPG. QB Kurt Benkert has 976 yards, seven TD’s to just one INT thus far, while RB Jordan Ellis has 219 total yards and three major scores to this point. Boise State led by just 14-7 after three quarters last week, before pulling away in the fourth. Note that the Broncos won the game despite being outgained 277-264, by losing the first down battle 18-12 and the time of possession 33:04 to 26:56. So far Boise State is ranked 60th in scoring with 32 PPG, while ranked 69th in scoring defense in conceding 24.7. Broncos’ QB Montell Cozard is 33 of 48 for 348 yards, five TD’s and one INT, while also leading the team in rushing with 179 yards. Note though that Virginia is 7-3 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Boise State is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 at home. Ultimately I feel the Cavs offense can keep this one close, giving the visitors a chance for an upset at the end. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-21-17 | Temple v. South Florida -20.5 | Top | 7-43 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on South Florida (7:00 EST). Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Temple is coming off a 29-21 home victory over Massachusetts, while South Florida stormed to a 47-23 home victory over Illinois last weekend. Note that the Bulls play with revenge today after the Owls scored the 46-30 victory in the series last year. Last week Temple QB Logan Marchi was 22 of 37 for 248 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Marchi has put the team on his back and so far has 767 passing yards and a 5/0 TD/INT ratio. RB Ryquell Armstead had 81 yards on 17 carries. The Owls defense looked a little shaky though, while they did only allow 61 rushing yards, the secondary was exposed in allowing 377 passing yards. Bulls’ QB Quinton Flowers was 15 of 27 for 280 yards, four TD’s and one INT in last week’s rout. So far Flowers has 678 passing yards and an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. Note though that Flowers also has 243 rushing yards. RB Darius Tice had 105 yards on 12 carries last weekend. The USF defense also looked stout, allowing 354 total yards to the Fighting Illini, including a 6 for 15 mark on third downs. I think it’s interesting to note as well that Temle is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 17.5 to 21 points range, while USF is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I think the Bulls’ defense will prove to be a big difference maker today. Lay the points with confidence, play on USF. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-17 | Oklahoma State v. Pittsburgh +11 | 59-21 | Loss | -105 | 138 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:00 EST). Am I suggesting that you should “sprinkle a little on the money line” in this one? No I am not. However, I do think that the underdog home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Oklahoma State comes in off a 44-7 drubbing of South Alabama on the road last Friday, while Pitt fell 33-14 on the road at Penn State last weekend. Note that when these teams played last year, it was an absolute battle. One which the Cowboys won, but only by the skin of their teeth (45-38 on Sept. 17th, 2016.) Suffice it to say, I’m expecting another nail-biter here as well. OKS is ranked 10th in the country in scoring with 51.5 PPG, while coneding only 15.5 PPG, ranked 31st. QB Mason Rudolph is 45 of 62 for 638 yards and six scores. RB Justice Hill has 159 yards and a TD to lead the ground game thus far. It’s interesting to note that despite the setback to the Nittany Lions last Saturday, the Panthers actually outgained Penn State 342-312 and won the first down battle 24-14. The difference maker was three costly turnovers, otherwise Pitt had a legitimate chance at taking that one outright. So far Pittsburgh is ranked 103rd with 21 PPG on offense, while ranked 77th in allowing 27 PPG. QB Max Browne is 36 of 56 for 278 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Quadree Oilison had 187 yards rushing and two major scores. I’ll point out though that the Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Pittsburgh is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of underdog. With a game at home against TCU up next, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-17 | UCLA v. Memphis +3 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 138 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Memphis (12:00 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. UCLA comes in off a 56-23 home win over Hawaii on Saturday. Memphis comes into this one fresh, as it hasn’t played since beating Louisiana Monroe 37-29 back on August 31st. The Tigers were scheduled to play UCF last weekend, but the Hurricane ruined that meeting. UCLA has to travel across the country for this one. Last week the Bruins actually lost the yardage battle 515-505 to the Warriors. They also lost the time of possession by a 36:05 to 23:55 margin. Despite that though the Bruins are ranked 11th in scoring so far this year with 50.5 PPG. They are however ranked 104th on the defensive side of the ball in conceding 33.5 PPG thus far. QB Josh Rosen has been solid with 820 yards, nine TD’s and no INT’s. The run game has been non-existent though, as Bola Olorunfunmi leads the way with just 63 yards and one TD. The Tigers have been game-planning for this one for two weeks. Memphis struggled at times against the Warhawks, but still managed to find a way to get the win. All told the Tigers ran for 319 yards and four touchdowns, with Darrell Henderson leading the way with 169 yards on the ground and two scores. I think it’s interesting to note that UCLA is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of September, while Memphis is 5-3 ATS in its last eight in September. With a conference tilt at Stanford next weekend, it’s not too hard to imainge the Bruins in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. A great situational play overall, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-15-17 | Arizona v. UTEP +21 | Top | 63-16 | Loss | -100 | 125 h 37 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on UTEP. I think Arizona gets caught “looking past” lowly UTEP this evening to its conference game at home next weekend against Utah. Arizona comes in off a deflating 19-16 loss to Houston last week, while UTEP fell 31-14 at home to Rice. Wildcats’ starting QB Brandon Dawkins was 17 of 29 for 178 yards and no TD’s. Khalil Tate was 5 of 8 for 41 yards. JJ Taylor was a stanout with 87 rushing yards. Arizona looked decent defensively, holding Houston to 383 yards. The Wildcats were a disaster on the defensive side of the ball last year and in my opinion, the book is still out on the unit to this point. Miners’ QB Ryan Metz was 18 of 33 for 203 yards, a TD and no INT’s last week. Metz has yet to find his stride this year, but he does come in off a decent campaign in 2016. The running game is weak, but the receiving corps is strong, keep your eyes on Kavika Johnson, who had six catches for 67 yards last week. The Miners struggled to stop the run last Saturday, allowing 300 rushing yards, but they’d also post two sacks and allow just 131 passing yards. UTEP’s defense catches a break here in facing the pass heavy offense of Arizona. Also note that the Miners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Arizona is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road. While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up to the hungry Miners. Play on UTEP. Good luck…Larry |
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09-15-17 | Illinois v. South Florida -14.5 | 23-47 | Win | 100 | 122 h 47 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on South Florida (7:00 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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09-15-17 | UMass +10.5 v. Temple | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 121 h 17 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Massachusetts (7:00 EST). While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do think that the 0-3 Minutemen will be the much more desperate side and I think that will translate into a much closer game than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. UMass enters off a loss against Old Dominion, while Temple comes in off a victory against Villanova. The Minutmen seem poised to put some points on the board though. Note that in last week’s 17-7 setback to OD, UMass didn’t commit a single turnover. The offense though managed only 332 yards on 73 plays. QB Andrew Ford was not terrible, going 21 of 32 for 236 yards and a TD. Listen to what head coach Mark Whipple had to say afterwards: “The defense played well enough to win,” Whipple assessed. “The offense shot themselves in the foot. We didn’t execute enough to win. We need to get back to work tonight. It’s a short week and we have to get ready for Temple on Friday night. Credit Old Dominion. They made plays. We didn’t play well up front (on offense) and we took some sacks we didn’t need to.’’ Temple QB Logan Marchi was shut down against Notre Dame, but bounced back to go 20 of 34 for 274 yards and no INT’s last week. The red zone offense faltered though as the team had to settle for FG’s. Now the Owls face another tough defense in the minutemen. Temple looked sharp defensively against the Wildcats, but now faces a desperate team hungry to get off the schneid. Note that UMass is 2-1 ATS in its las three after three or more consecutive ATS losses, while Temple is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I think Temple gets caught “looking ahead” to its tough conference road game against USF next week, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the visitors to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-17 | San Diego State v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* SEPTEMBER SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Arizona State (11:00 EST). SDSU enters off a 34-17 win over UC Davis, while Arizona State held on for a 37-31 victory over a tough New Mexico State side. The Aztecs were 11-3 last year and then beat Houston 34-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl. But only 11 starters return from that dominant team. SDSU is still expected to compete in the Mountain West with its potent ground attack. Last week the Aztecs rolled up 276 yards on the grounds, led by Rashaad Penny, who had 197 yards and two TD’s last week. SDSU turns to Christian Chapman under center, last week he was 16 of 21 for 221 yards, two TD’s and an INT. The Aztecs defense looked solid last week, but clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test in Manny Wilkins and the high-flying Sun Devils on Saturday night. Wilkins threw for 300 yards last week against a dangerous and experienced Aggies team. ASU averaged 33.3 PPG last year and it has seven starters back from that unit this season. Last week the offense put up 400 yards, including 321 through the air. Wilkins was 22 of 27 with two TD’s. WR John Humphrey had 123 yards on seven catches. Arizona State’s defense looked pretty bad last year and it looked flat-footed in Week 1 as well. The secondary catches a break this week though in facing the run heavy Aztec offense. And ultimately I feel this is what it will come down to. The Aztecs don’t have the necessary downfield personel to keep the Sun Devils honest. I like Wilkins and company to have another big night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-17 | New Mexico State v. New Mexico -10 | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on New Mexico (8:00 EST). The New Mexico Lobos enter off a 38-14 season-opening win over Abiliene Christian. Dating back to last year UNM has now won eight of its last nine and three in a row. QB Lamar Jordan had 213 yards and a TD, while the offense as whole posted 481 yards. The defense limited the Wildcats to just eight yards rushing. Now the Lobos setstheir sites on the Rio Grande Rivalry at Dreamstyle Stadium against New Mexico State. New Mexico State gave Arizona State everything it could handle last week, but eventually fell apart down the stretch, succumbing 37-31. Tyler Rogers looked decent under center, setting a career high in pass completions and attempts. Jason Huntley was another standout with a career high 84 yards rushing. I’ll point out though that New Mexico State has struggled in this spot for bettors, going 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while New Mexico is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 37 points or more. I think the Aggies have a letdown here on their second straight road game and after the near victory was snatched from them in Week 1. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-17 | Louisville -7.5 v. North Carolina | 47-35 | Win | 100 | 138 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on Louisville (12:00 EST). The Cardinals rallied for 35-28 SU win over the Boilermakers in Week 1, but fell large against the spread in the neutral site affair. UNC lost to Cal 35-30 at home on Saturday. Louisville won the yardage battle with Purdue 524-344 last week, but three turnovers kept the game a lot closer than it should have been (although the Cardinals did force four turnovers of their own.) Additionally the defense would also produce a major score. Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson was 30 of 46 for 378 yards and two TD’s, as well as running the ball 21 times for 107 yards, but fumbling the ball in the red zone as well. Jaylen Smith led the way through the air with eight catches for 117 yards. UNC led 17-7 at half and 24-21 after three quarters, but it didn’t score again until the game’s final play. The Tar Heels would go on to lose the yardage battle 469-440. The Heels also turned the ball over three times, while forcing only two of their own. QB Brandon Harris was just 7 of 16 for 60 yards and two INT’s. Chazz Surratt was 18 of 27 for 161 yards and two TD’s. RB Michael Carter was a standout with 94 yards and two TD’s. The Tar Heels defense though was destroyed by a QB making his first career start. UNC also has troubles at the QB position. Jackson and company were far from perfect, but still managed to gut out a victory. Suffice it to say I’m expecting the Cardinals to play much more disciplined in this one and I look for them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-17 | Ohio v. Purdue -5 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on Purdue (8:00 EST). Ohio comes in off a 59-0 win over Hampton, while Purdue dropped a hard-fought 35-28 battle with Louisville in its home opener. These schools haven’t met since 1998. Bobcats’ QB Quinton Maxwell was 7 of 9 for 100 yards and one TD and one pick, while Nathan Rourke had 72 passing yards and three rushing TD’s. The run game accumulated 248 yards with AJ Oullette leading the charge with 63 yards on 12 carries. If the run game stalls, then the Bobcats are in trouble. Ohio looked good defensively last week, but clearly that unit faces a much stiffer test on Friday night. The Boilermakers will look to do just that as last week they’d give the Cardinals everything they could handle. QB Elija Sindelar threw for 118 yards and two TD’s, while David Blough had 175 yards and two TD’s (also two INT’s.) Purdue’s defense looked pretty average, but considering the opponent, it wasn’t completely horrible either. The Boilermakers were also able to put up 28 points against the 16th ranked Cardinals and I think they’re going to be able to build off that impressive performance. I’ll point out as well that Ohio is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Purdue is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a fav in the 3.5 to ten points range. The Bobcats’ one dimensional offense proves to be too predicable here. Play on Purude. Good luck…Larry |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee v. Georgia Tech +4 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 202 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Georgia Tech (8:00 EST). This one is being played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Georgia. Tennessee finished 9-4 last year and would prevail 38-24 over Nebraska in the Music City Bowl, while Georgia Tech was 9-4, winning the TaxSlayer Bowl 33-18 over Kentucky. These teams haven’t faced each other since 1987. The Vols gave up at least 31 points six times last year. Tennessee though was ranked 24th in the country in scoring with 36.8 PPG. The Vols don’t have Joshua Dobbs under center anymore. Coach Butch Jones has not committed to a No. 1 starter yet, so expect to see both Jarrett Guarantano and Quinten Dormady getting time. RB John Kelly is back after posting 580 yards and seven TD’s last season. Georgia Tech ended the year winning six of its final seven after starting 3-3. Last season the Yellow Jackets would score at least 30 points in eight of their games. Georgia Tech was decent on both sides of the ball last year, finishing 70th in scoring (28.2) and 39th in scoring defense (24.5) QB Justin Thomas is gone, meaning that Matthew Jordan will likely be named No. 1 to open the season. The Yellow Jackets have a stable of great RB’s, which helps with their dangerous triple-option attack. I’ll point out that Tennessee is just 1-2 ATS in its last three neutral site affairs, while Georgia Tech is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four in the same position. Both offenses will have to go through growing pains to open the season. Georgia Tech’s offense though relies on the ground game, not the QB’s arm. The Vols have a new QB, new RB’s and new WR’s. The Yellow Jackets have the superior defense in my opinion as well. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Georgia Tech. Good luck…Larry |
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09-03-17 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech -4.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 178 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF WEEK is on Virginia Tech (7:30 EST). These border rivals get ready to play a neutral site matchup, although they haven’t played against each other since 2005. Both teams are starting new QB’s this year, with Josh Jackson at Virginia Tech and WVU turning to Florida transer Will Grier. Grier had Florida at 6-0 in 2015 before testing positive for steroids. He’ll be joined by RB Justin Crawford, who had 1,184 yards and four TD’s last year. The offensive line is a big concern for the Mountaineers though as they try to replace LT Yodny Cajuste and All-American center Tyler Orlosky. The defense allowed 24 points and 425.9 YPG last season. However, once again there are major concerns about the line, as WVU has to replace all three starting lineman from its 3-3-5 defense. Jackson will be leaning heavily on WR cam Phillips for the Hokies this year, as he’d finish with 76 passes for 983 yards and five TD’s last season. Jackson will also be turning to RB Travon McMillian, who rushed for 677 yards and seven TD’s. VT’s defense is expected to be solid out of the gates as it returns three linebackers and three of the four secondary starters. Last year the unit gave up an average of just 340.7 YPG. I’ll point out as well that WVU is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site gams, while VT is 2-1 ATS in its last three in the same position. Grier is a question mark in my opinion having not played competitively since 2015. The Virginia Tech defense looks much better than West Virginia’s as well. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Hokies. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-17 | Florida State +7.5 v. Alabama | 7-24 | Loss | -130 | 155 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Florida State (8:00 EST). I’m not going to call for the outright upset (although I wouldn’t be shocked), but I think that FSU will at the very least take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This one is being played in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Georgia. The Seminoles return 15 starters and 48 lettermen overall from a squad that went 10-3 last season (that included a 33-32 victory over the Wolverines in the Orange Bowl.) FSU is led by QB Deondre Francois, an offense which was 40th in the nation in rushing last year, 33rd in passing and 25th in total offense while averaging 35.1 PPG overall. The Seminoles were horrible defensively over the first four games last year, allowing 42.3 PPG in that span. They’d recover the rest of the way though to allow only 18.5 over the final eight. And now FSU brings back 24 of 27 lettermen from that group, including ten starters. Alabama has been to the playoffs in each of the last three seasons and has one title to show for it, getting upset 35-31 by Clemson last year. The Tide return 11 starters. Alabama will be dominant on the defensive side of the ball, it allowed just 13.0 PPG and 262 YPG last season. Jalen Hurts will once again be under center, last year he threw for 2,780 yards, 23 TD’s and nine INT’s. He aslo ran for 954 yards and 13 TD’s. Damien Harris is back as well, last year he ran for 1,037 yards. I think it’s interesting to note though that Florida State is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the SEC, while Alabama is 0-2 ATS in its last two agains tthe ACC. I think the Noles are the complete package this year and I expect them to at the very least, come away with the comfortable covers once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-17 | Bowling Green v. Michigan State -17.5 | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 147 h 31 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Michigan State (12:00 EST). Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Both teams come in off disappointing campaigns. Bowling Green was one of the highest scoring teams in the nation in 2015 with 42.2 PPG, but in 2016 it averaged only 24.8. The Green Falcons return QB James Morgan, who comes in off a pretty mediocre season. In all the offense returns six starters. The receiving corp and RB’s look solid, but the concern out of camp is along the offensive line. Last year the defense allowed 38.3 PPG. The unit should see significant improvement this year with 22 of 28 lettermen back from that side of the ball, including six starters. Regardless, it’s still a weak point and one which I look for the Spartans to exploit. Michigan State is looking for redemption this year after a 3-9 season. The Spartans will be leaning heavily upon RB LJ Scott, who had 984 yards and six TD’s last year. At QB is Brian Lewerke, who saw some playing time last season. The Spartans were decent defensively, allowing 27.8 PPG. The unit should make some strides this season as well and clearly it catches a break in facing the Green Falcons to open the 2017/18 campaign. Additionally I’ll point out that Bowling Green is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Michigan State is 3-2 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. The Spartans have a good shot at making it back to a bowl game this year and I look for the home side to come out extremely focused as it looks to start the new season off on the “right foot.” Lay the points, play on Michigan State. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-17 | Kent State v. Clemson -38.5 | 3-56 | Win | 100 | 147 h 30 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Clemson (12:00 EST). Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Kent State was 3-9 last year. The Golden Flashes faced two Top 25 opponents and lost 48-0 to Alabama and 37-21 to WMU. The Tigers are the defending National Champions, but move forward of course without QB Deshaun Watson. The Golden Flashes head coach Paul Haynes is out for the first few weeks because of medical reasons, meaning that OC Don Treadwell will serve in the interim. Treadwell doesn’t have much to live up to as Haynes is an abysmal 12-35 in his four years as head coach of Kent State. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney will be prowling the sidelines tonight though and he’s made Kelly Bryant the starter. Bryant has just 75 yards and one TD in 18 career attempts. He’ll be sharing time though with Zerrick Cooper and Hunter Johnson. Whoever wins the starting job has a plethora of offensive talent surrounding them, including Ray-Ray McCloud, Deon Cain and Hunter Renfrow. I’ll point out as well that the Golden Flashes are just 11-24 ATS in their last 35 non-conference games, while the Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home. Kent State is a great appetizer to warm up on. Tigers roll. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-17 | Akron v. Penn State -32 | Top | 0-52 | Win | 100 | 147 h 30 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Penn State (12:00 EST). Suffice it to say I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Akron finished 5-7 last year, while Penn State was 11-3. The Nittany Lions will be out to atone for a 52-49 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl though and that’s bad news for the lowly Zips obviously. Akron dropped four straight to end the season and the defense was the major issue, as it would allow at least 38 points seven times. In their lone matchup against a Big Ten opponent last year, the Zips were destroyed 54-10 by Wisconsin on the road. Akron averaged 27.4 PPG and allowed 33.6. QB Thomas Woodson had 2,079 yards, 18 TD’s and six INT’s. Woodson’s top two receivers are gone though. The Nittany Lions finished 21st in the country with an average of 37.6 PPG last year. They were ranked 47th on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG. QB Trace McSorely had 3,614 yards, 29 TDs and eight INT’s, to go along with 365 rushing yards and an additional seven TD’s on the ground. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on RB Saquon Barkley, who had 1,496 yards rushing and 18 TD’s. I’ll point out that Akron is notorious for getting out to slow starts, having gone just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games in September. Also note that Penn State is a solid 5-0-1 ATS in its last six at home. The Nittany Lions started 2-2 last year, so will be looking to get out to a much quicker start this time around. Look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-17 | Boston College -3 v. Northern Illinois | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 132 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Boston College (9:30 EST). Boston College was 7-6 last year, but was just 2-6 in the ACC. The Eagles closed the season strong though with three straight wins, including beating Maryland 36-30 in the Quick Lane Bowl. I like Boston College to carry that momentum over here and to take advantage of a Northern Illinois team which finished 5-7 last year. The Huskies started four different QB’s last season. NIU has been a powerhouse in the MAC for almost a decade, but it has just 13 victories over the last two seasons. NIU is expected to test three different signal callers today in Ryan Graham, Daniel Santacaterina and Marcus Childers. The Huskies lost their top RB from last year in Joel Broughton, but have a capable replacement in Jordan Huff, who finished with 703 yards and five major scores last year. Despite the rotation at QB, the Huskies were decent offensively (3rd in conference), but it was their defense which was a disaster, allowing 30.3 points and 451.5 YPG BC returns seven starters on the defensive side of the ball, including DE Harold Landry, who led the country in sacks with 16.5. The Eagles’ front seven is expected to once again be among the best in the nation. BC struggled offensively last year, managing just 20.4 PPG. The Eagles have two options at QB, Darius Wade, who has the most experience, and redshit freshman Anthony Brown who many believe will eventually win the job. Brown is a legitimate dual threat. I’ll point out that Boston College is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine against the MAC, while NIU is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. I think BC’s run game and defense prove to be too much for the Huskies today, who come into this season with more questions than answers. Play on the Eagles. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-17 | Washington -30.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Washington (8:00 EST). When these teams met last year in Washington the Huskies won 48-13. Washington went 11-1 last year, with its lone regular season loss coming against USC. Washington returns more than 85 percent of its offensive yards from a team which averaged 41.8 PPG and 457 YPG last season. QB Jake Browning threw for 3,430 yards with 43 TD’s and just nine INT’s last year. Browning has most of his RB and receiving corps returning, including Myles Gaskin, who ran for 1,373 yards and ten TD’s. The Huskies were also tough on the defensive side of the ball, ranked eighth overall after allowing 17.7 PPG. Note that 27 of 35 lettermen return, including six starters from the defense. The Scarlet Knights were horrible last year, finishing 2-10, including 0-9 in Big 10 action. In games against Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State, Rutgers was outscored 224-0. Last year QB Kyle Bolin led an offense which averaged 15.7 PPG. The defense was almost as bad, ranked 126th in the nation against the run and allowing an average of 37.5 PPG overall. The Scarlet Knights should make significant improvement over their abysmal numbers from a year ago, but the team still has more questions than answers as we head into the 2017/18 campaign. I simply have a hard time seeing Rutgers doing anything offensively against what should be another Top 10 defense for the Hukies. Lay the points with confidence, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-17 | New Mexico State +23.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 110 h 57 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on New Mexico State (10:30 EST). Both teams are out for redemption after sub-par season’s a year ago. NMSU has won just three games in each of the last two years. But the Aggies have big expectations this season, as they’re now the most experienced team in their conference, with 16 starters back. The NMSU defense was bad, allowing 38.8 PPG last year, but it’s expected to take a major step forward this season. The Aggies offense has improved each year under Doug Martin. QB Tyler Rogers had 2,603 yards, 16 TD’s and 12 INT’s last season and seven of his top eight receivers are all back. The run game is expected to be tops in the Sun Belt as well, led by senior Larry Rose and who will be running behind the fourth best offensive line in the league. ASU finished 5-8 last year. The offense averaged 33.3 PPG and it returns seven starters from last season. Manny Wilkins threw for 2,329 yards, 12 TD’s and nine INT’s. The run game also looks strong with Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard, but the receiving corps is thin. The Sun Devils were also brutal on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 39.8 PPG last season. 20 of 36 lettermen return from last year so the unit is also expected to improve significantly. I’ll point out though that NMSU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against the Pac-12, while ASU has struggled in this position for bettors for years now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five games played in the month of August. The Aggies won’t be intimidated whatsoever here and clearly the pressure is on the home side. I’m not predicting an outright epic upset, but I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than whan the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play New Mexico State. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe +27 v. Memphis | 29-37 | Win | 100 | 109 h 47 m | Show | |
The second 8* of my Superstar Triple Play is on UL Monroe (9:00 EST). Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money-line” in this one? Of course not. I simply feel that the high-flying Tigers are going to get caught “looking past” the low-flying Warhawks to their game at UCF the following week. Louisiana Monroe was just 4-8 last year and failed to qualify for a bowl, while Memphis finished 8-5, the Tigers going on to lose 51-31 to WKU in the Boca Raton Bowl. The Warhawks were atrocious on the road last year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But as mentioned off the top, I think the unit catches a break here with the home side already planning for an early crucial conference tilt the following weekend. UL Monroe returns three QB’s from last year in Garrett Smith, Caleb Evans and Will Collins. The top two RB’s from last year also return in Ben Luckett and Thomas Koufie. The Tigers’ defense can empathize with their opponent today, as it would go on to allow at least 42 points in six games last year. Memphis is once again expected to be a power-house on the offensive side of the ball with Riley Ferguson leading the way, he had 3,698 yards, 32 TD’s and 10 INT’s last season. RB Dorolan Dorceus is also expected to have another big campaign. I’ll point out though that the Warhawks are 4-2 ATS in their last six as a road dog of 21.5 points or more and 5-3 ATS in their last eight non-conference contests, while the Tigers are just 6-7 ATS in their last 13 at home and just 8-9 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on Louisiana Monroe. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-17 | Ohio State -21 v. Indiana | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 107 h 17 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Ohio State (8:00 EST). Ohio State was 11-2 SU/ATS last year, while Indiana was 6-7 SU/ATS. Ohio State’s season ended with a disappointing 31-0 loss to Clemson in the Playoff semifinal. The Buckeyes have to be feeling pretty confident as we head into the new season though as they return eight players on offense, including senior QB JT Barrett and RB Mike Weber. When these teams met last year, the Buckeyes rolled to a 38-17 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting an even bigger blowout this time around. Barrett now has a ton of experience under his belt and I think he’ll be a big difference maker tonight. Barrett had 2,555 yards passing, 24 TD’s and seven INT’s, while also running for 845 yards and nine major scores last season. Ohio State averaged 39.4 PPG and ranked sixth nationally on the defensive side of the ball last year by allowing just 300.2 YPG. A strength also lies on the defensive line, with three of four starters returning. Indiana returns nine starters on the defensive side of the ball, a unit which allowed an average of just 380 YPG. The Hoosiers once again turn to QB Richard Lagow this year, he completed 57.8 percent of his passes for 3,362 years, 19 TD’s and 17 INT’s last year. In all the offense would average only 25.8 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Ohio State is 42-20-1 ATS in its last 63 on the road, while Indiana is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home. While the Hoosiers did improve dramatically on the defensive side of the ball last year, the offense once again has more questions than answers this season. I think Ohio State’s depth and experience on both sides of the ball proves to be too much for the home side. All signs point to a blowout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-17 | Rice +31 v. Stanford | 7-62 | Loss | -115 | 85 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Rice (10:00 EST). Am I suggesting that you should “sprinkle a little on the money line?” Of course not. I simply feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up as I think Stanford is going to need some time to develop chemistry before its firing on all cylinders. This game is being played in Sydney Australia. The Cardinal finished 10-3 last year and went on to beat North Carolina 25-23 in the Sun Bowl, while the Owls were just 3-9 on the season. When these teams met on November 26th, Stanford came away with the 41-17 victory. Stanford has some work to do to return to prominence in the confernece. Keller Chryst is expected to get the start here (77 of 136 for 905 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s.) However, Ryan Burns is waiting in the wings if needed (106 of 166 for 1,151 yeards, five TD’s and seven INT’s.) Clearly the Cardinal offense is going to need to make adjustments after losing RB Christian McCaffrey to the NFL draft as well. The focus now shifts to Bryce Love, who ran 112 times for 779 yards and three major scores last year. The kicking game is also a concern, as Jet Toner and Collin Riccitelli are still very inexperienced. Rice will once again struggle this season. Sam Glaesmann will make his first College start under center and he’ll be leaning heavily on RB Samuel Steward, who had 76 carries for 479 yards and three TD”s last year. WT Kylen Granson had 33 receptions for 381 yards and two TD’s. The kicking game is a strength of the Owls, with Jack Fox and Hade Tobola (31/31 XP, 7/11 FG, long of 46) both returning. I’ll point out as well that Rice is 5-3 ATS in its last eight non-conference games, while Stanford is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in the same position. Both teams have a lot of questions on the offensive side of the ball and ultimately I think the bigger adjustment will fall on Stanford. It’s the window of opportunity that Rice bettors are looking for. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Owls. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-17 | Oregon State v. Colorado State -2.5 | Top | 27-58 | Win | 100 | 1590 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on Colorado State. Hopes are high at Colorado State, where the Rams have plenty of talent back from last year’s half-decent (7-6) team and should get a boost from playing their first game in their new stadium. With Alabama and powerful Colorado among the first four opponents, this is almost a must-win situation for CSU. While Oregon State no doubt will try to control the tempo of this one, the Rams hope to make it a shootout behind QB Nick Stevens, who passed for 19 TDs in less than a season in 2016. A strong effort by Stevens in the opener on national TV could result in some Heisman talk and help put CSU on the college football map. Look for Colorado State’s strong defensive front to take a toll on Oregon State’s O-line, which has been re-worked since last season. The Beavers have talent, but most of it is on the offensive side of the ball – not unusual in today’s high-scoring college game. This one has the look and feel of a field-goal game, with CSU having a slight edge at home in its new digs, which has the awkward name Sonny Lubick Field at Colorado State University in a nod to the school’s former longtime coach. Good luck...Larry |
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01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -107 | 197 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR is on Alabama (8:00 EST). In all the hoopla over Alabama winning the national championship a year ago, it was not lost on the gambling community that the Crimson Tide did not cover the spread. The son of Nick Saban went in to the title game as 6-point favorites, but their 45-40 victory did nothing but cause anguish among their backers at the betting window. Twelve month later, and here we are again. Alabama vs. Clemson II, and the betting line is just about the same. Just about every betting outlet in the world has the Tide favored by 6, 6.5 or 7 points. Will the outcome be any different this time around? Yes and no. Alabama will win again, but this time will cover the spread. Clemson appears to be the chic pick in the media. The Tigers earned lots of street cred after their 31-0 drawing and quartering of Ohio State in the semifinals. Clemson intercepted two passes in that game, which immediately caused everyone to start wondering what the Tigers could do to Alabama freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts, who came out of nowhere and was the Southern Conference Offensive Player of the Year when he threw 34 touchdown passes, was not exactly Peyton Manning 2.0 in the Tide’s 24-7 semifinal victory over Washington – 7 of 14, no TDs, only 57 yards passing. But not much bothers Hurts ("I rarely get frustrated," he said after the Washington game. "I just take it as it comes and play ball."), so even the absence of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin (who will miss the game as he gets a head start on his new job as head coach at Florida Atlantic) shouldn’t be much of an impediment. Alabama scored plenty of points this season (the Tide averaged nearly 40 a game in going 14-0 SU), but they figure to win their 5th national title in eight seasons by riding their lightning-fast defense past Clemson. Alabama’s athletic defense led the nation in defensive touchdowns, it led the nation in rushing defense and it led the nation in total defense. Consider this: In the best football conference in the country, the Tide scored more points than any other team and gave up fewer points than any other team – both by wide margins. If any team can beat No. 1 Alabama, it’s No. 2 Clemson. But the Crimson Tide are not just any team. And they figure to both win this game, and cover the spread. Roll Tide. Again. Good luck…Larry |
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01-02-17 | Auburn v. Oklahoma -4 | Top | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 606 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* January Bowl LEGEND is on Oklahoma (8:30 EST). Two losses in their first three games basically ended the Sooners’ chances at a return berth in the playoffs, but to their credit they never stopped playing hard, and their reward was nine straight victories, the school’s 10th Big 12 Conference championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. And Oklahoma comes roaring into the final game of the season, with a powerful offense that scored 34 or more points in every conference game. There is no reason to believe that the Sooners, who ended the season ranked 7th nationally, will pull up lame against Auburn. Oddsmakers made the Sooners 3.5-point favorites, and bettors feasted on that number, driving it up a full two points to the 5.5 where it now sits. The Sooners like to establish the run behind battering backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, opening things up for more-than-capable QB Baker Mayfield. The defense has had some issues, but the O should once again be more than strong enough to compensate for whatever Auburn is able to put up on the scoreboard. The Tigers – who also started 1-2 and had trouble moving the ball against quality opponents – might not be able to hang in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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01-02-17 | Western Michigan v. Wisconsin -7 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 602 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Wisconsin (1:00 EST). What a season it could have been for the Badgers, who will take a 10-3 record into the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 2 but could have easily gone undefeated. There were 7-point losses to Michigan and Penn State, and a 3-point overtime loss to Ohio State. Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Still, a date vs. Western Michigan in Arlington, Texas is not all that bad. The Badgers are making post-season play a regular thing, and they hope to make it three bowl wins in succession. Defense is Wisconsin’s calling card as the Badgers gave up only 15 points per game this season. Good thing, too, because the offense has had its share of problems behind redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook (8 TD passes, 7 interceptions). Wisconsin gets it done with a solid offensive line blocking for workhorse back Corey Clement (1,304 yards and 14 TDs). Western Michigan was 13-0 during the regular season and had early victories over Big Ten entries Northwestern and Illinois, but is punching up in class. Bettors know this, and an opening line of 6.5 was quickly bet up to 7.5. If the Badgers pay attention they should be able to fly back to Madison with another bowl win. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State -3 v. Clemson | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -120 | 561 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Ohio State (7:00 EST). Thirty-six years after Woody Hayes famously laid out a Clemson player before calling it quits as Buckeye coach, the teams are at it again in the post-season, and the winner of what is shaping up as possibly the most exciting game of the season will get a chance to play for the national title. Video of the Hayes’s sucker punch will no doubt be shown during the Fiesta Bowl broadcast, but the real fun will be on the field. Both teams have great offense and great defenses, both teams have good coaches, and both teams have excellent football pedigrees. The difference in this one could very well be OSU QB J.T. Barrett. Barrett was the best quarterback in the Big Ten this past season, and Clemson will have to figure out a way to limit his running ability. In fact, Barrett may wind up with 25 or more carries. That should open up the passing game, where the Buckeyes are looking for wideout Noah Brown to have a big game. The line on this one opened with Ohio State as a 3-point favorite, but has moved up a tick to 3.5. Look for a tight game, with in-game adjustments by OSU coach Urban Meyer giving the Buckeyes an edge. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 534 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* December Bowl LEGEND is Florida State (8:00 EST). The Seminoles had their sights set on a spot in the four-team championship playoffs this season, but that that went down the toilet in late October when FSU faded in the late going and lost to Clemson at home, 37-34. But the Orange Bowl is not a bad consolation prize, especially when you get to spend a week on South Beach getting ready for it. It’s hard to say what momentum means when a game is played more than a month after the conclusion of the regular season, but Florida State does come in with four wins in a row, and the Seminoles did win their final three by an average score of 40-11. So there’s that. More importantly, FSU is stacked with quality players, including four unanimous All-ACC studs – running back Dalvin Cook, offensive tackle Rod Johnson, defensive end DeMarcus Walker and linebacker Tavarus McFaddden. Florida State is also catching Michigan at a good time – after a difficult season in which an emotional overtime loss to Ohio State cost the Wolverines their own shot at a berth in the Final Four. FSU is in prime position to win outright, even though they go in as 7-point underdogs. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-16 | North Carolina +3 v. Stanford | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Sun Bowl PERFECT STORM is on UNC (2:00 EST). The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal get ready to battle the 8-4 North Carolina Tar Heels in the Sun Bowl on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors UNC. Stanford closed the season with five straight wins, riding the strong play of RB Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey though won’t be playing in this bowl game, instead deciding to take his talents to the NFL. UNC is weak against the run, but now clearly catches a massive break in not having to face the dynamic Cardinal RB. Tar Heels’ QB Mitch Trubisky has thrown for over 3,500 yards this year and is considered by many to be a Top ten pick. And he has plenty of weapons to throw to, including senior WR Ryan Switzer, who leads the team with 91 receptions and over 1,000 yards to go along with five major scores. Note that Trubisky has thrown 28 TD’s against just four INT’s this season. I’ll point out that UNC is 3-1 ATS in non-conference games this year and 2-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival, while Stanford is 0-2 ATS in its last two against teams with winning records. If McCaffrey were playing, I’d probably be leaning towards Stanford in this one, but his absence is huge and will prove to be just too much for the Cardinal to overcome in my opinion. UNC can score with the best of them and I look for it to find a way to get the job done. Play on the Tar Heels. Good luck…Larry |
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12-29-16 | Oklahoma State +3 v. Colorado | Top | 38-8 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Oklahoma State (9:00 EST). The 10-3 Colorado Buffaloes get ready to battle the 9-3 Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cowboys. The Buffs lost 41-10 to Washington in the PAC 12 Championship game, while Oklahoma State fell 38-20 to Oklahoma in BIG 12 Championship game. Colorado QB Sefo Liufau had a solid overall season, finishing with 2,171 yards and an 11:6 TD to INT ratio, while also rushing for seven major scores as well. Liufau looked poor in the loss to the Huskies though with zero TD’s and three INT’s. The Buffaloes average 32.8 PPG and concede 20.5. Oklahoma State is led by QB Mason Rudolph, who finished with 3,777 yards and a 25:4 TD to INT ratio. Keep your eyes on Cowboys’ WR James Washington as well, he finished with 1,209 receiving yards. Overall Oklahoma State concedes 28.1 PPG, while averaging 38.7, ranked 19th overall in the country. It’s interesting to note that Colorado is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of December, while OK State is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. Ultimately I feel that the Cowboys’ ninth ranked passing game will be just too much for Colorado to keep up with. The Buffs struggled against a similar high-powered offense in the Huskies and things aren’t going to get any easier for the secondary in facing Rudolph and company. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |