Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-01-18 | Michigan v. Notre Dame +2 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 315 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Notre Dame (7:30 EST). Michigan comes into the 2018/19 season ranked No. 14, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 12. The Wolverines finished 8-5 last year, capped off with a disappointing 26-19 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. The Irish were 10-2 last year and they beat LSU 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl. Michigan went 0-3 in conference play against ranked teams last year, getting smashed 97-43 collectively. The Wolverines were sloppy too, committing 21 turnovers on the season, leaving them -4 in the takeaway/giveaway ratio. Shea Patterson had 2,259 passing yards for the Wolverines with 17 TD’s and nine INT’s over seven games. He was injured and Brandon Peters would come in to go for 672 yards, four TD’s and two INT’s. Karan Higdon was a bright spot on the ground with 994 yards and 11 TD’s last season. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly reached the double-win plateau for a third-straight time under his reign last season. Last year the offense averaged 34.2 PPG, ranked 24th in the FBS. The offense returns nine starters, meaning it should only be better this season. The defense was the strength though and it will be again, finishing 31st in the country last year by allowing just 21.5 PPG. As good as Patterson looked before his injury last year, the Irish still have the better, more experienced offense in this matchup. I think Notre Dame comes out firing on all cylinders and uses its superior defense/offense to come out on top of what should be an entertaining affair. Play on the Irish. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-18 | SMU v. North Texas -3 | 23-46 | Win | 100 | 314 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on North Texas (7:30 EST). SMU was 7-5 last year, before getting crushed by Louisiana Tech in the Frisco Bowl, while UNT went 9-5 overall and lost to Troy in the New Orleans Bowl. Note that this is a revenge game for the Mean Green after they fell by 22 points at SMU last year. Sonny Dykes is now head coach for SMU. The Mustangs averaged 36.2 PPG last year, led by QB Ben Hicks who had 33 TD’s and 12 INT’s. Xavier Jones, Braeden West and Ke’Mon Freeman combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards. The defense was terrible though, allowing 38.6 PPG, and it’s going to be a weak point against this season as well. After going 1-11 in 2015, the Mean Green went 9-5 last year, winning the Conference USA’s West Division. QB Mason Fine is among 17 returning starters. Last year UNT averaged 35.5 PPG and Fine threw at least three TD strikes in three of the last five games during the 2017 season. I’ll point out that North Texas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while SMU is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road. North Texas is on the rise and I expect it to come out and put the foot on the gas from start to finish. And that doesn’t bode well for this questionable Mustangs’ defensive unit. Lay the points, play on North Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-18 | Marshall v. Miami-OH -2.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -113 | 312 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Blowout is on Miami Ohio (3:30 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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09-01-18 | North Carolina +8.5 v. California | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 311 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on North Carolina (4:00 EST). Am I calling for an outright upset here? I am not. I do think though that the Tar Heels will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. UNC turns to QB Nathan Elliot, who had 926 yards, ten TD’s and five INT’s after taking over the starting job half way through last year. Elliot is a dual threat QB (had 134 yards on the ground) and he’s expected to take a major step forward this season. Elliot’s favorite target will surely be Anthony Ratliff-Williams who had 630 receiving yards. Note that Jordan Brown and Michael Carter would combined for nearly 1,200 rushing yards and 337 receiving yards. The Golden Bears jumped out to an early 3-0 start last year, but then a rash of injuries led to a 2-7 finish. QB Ross Bowers is back, along with RB Patrick Larid and four dynamic WR’s. Both teams have big bounce back expectations this season and I think they’re much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. In a tight battle, grab as many points as you can. Play on UNC. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-18 | Washington +3 v. Auburn | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 311 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* AFTERNOON ROUT is on Washington (3:30 EST). Auburn won the SEC West last year, but Georgia won the Conference and Alabama went on to capture the National title. Washington went to the Fiesta Bowl last season where it fell to Penn State. QB Jake Browning is back for his senior year to lead a team which went 10-2. Browning completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 2,719 yards, 19 TD’s and five INT’s. RB Myles Gaskin had 1,380 rushing yards and 21 TD’s. The offensive line will be a a strength as it’s a unit with has a collective 97 starts worth of experience. Auburn returns three of four defensive line starters from last year as the Tigers ranked 11th in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 18.5 PPG. Auburn’s question marks are on offense though. QB Jarrett Stidham simply doesn’t have the same repertoire as Browning in my opinion and despite how awesome the Tigers should be on the defensive side of the ball, I think the visitors high-flying offense will prove to be just too much for them to keep up to. Grab the points, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-18 | Colorado State v. Colorado -6.5 | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 293 h 57 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Colorado (9:30 EST). Colorado State is already 0-1 to open the 2018/19 campaign and I think it’ll struggle here as well. Colorado will look to take advantage and to keep the Centennial Trophy for a fourth straight season. The Rams looked horrible in their 43-34 home loss to Hawaii last weekend, falling behind by a whopping 30 points at one point. QB KJ Carta-Samuels had 537 yards, five TD’s and an INT in the loss. Colorado State had 653 yards of total offense, but it committed 12 costly penalties on the night. The defense was a disaster though, allowing 418 passing yards and 617 total yards. In 2016 Colorado had ten wins, but last year it went just 5-7. Clearly the Buffs are hoping for a much better result in 2018/19. QB Steven Montez is back for his second season, last year he had 2,975 yards and 18 TD’s. He also rushed for 338 rushing yards and completed almost 61 percent of his passes. RB Phillip Lindsay had 1,474 yards and 14 TD’s in 2017. The Buffs also feature three competent receivers in Kabion Ento, Juwann Winfree and Jay McIntyre, who had 28 catches for 396 yards last year. Colorado was poor defensively last year, but new LB’s Drew Lewis and Rick Gamboa should help the unit make strides this season. I’ll point out that Colorado is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five in this series, while Colorado State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site affairs. I believe the stability that Colorado has at QB winds up being the difference in this one. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse -6 v. Western Michigan | Top | 55-42 | Win | 100 | 291 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Syracuse (6:00 EST). This is the first meeting ever between the teams. Syracuse will be looking for a better result early this season after going 4-8 last year. Western Michigan was 6-6. The Orange are expected to compete for a Bowl position this season as they have eight starters back on offense and six on defense. Syracuse QB is senior Eric Dungey, who had 2,495 yards, 14 TD’s and nine INT’s last season. The Orange had a more difficult schedule last year, so coach Dino Baber is expecting major progression in his third-year running the show. Defensively the team was a bit of a mess, but the ACC is unforgiving. However as mentioned above, the defensive unit should also be improved with six starters returning. Overall the Orange were ranked 23rd in the nation in total offense last year and 106th in total defense. WMU was 6-6 last year, but it wasn’t enough to get a bowl invite. The defense was horrible as well and it returns just five starters this season. The only way the unit can go is up this year, but the defensive side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak area. The offense returns eight starters, including QB Jon Waasink, who had 1,411 yards, 14 TD’s and four INT’s last season. RB Javion Franklin, who had 1,200 yards rushing last year is gone though and he really did make opposing defenses “honest.” Last year WMU was ranked 79th in the country in scoring and 55th in total yards allowed. It’s the ACC vs. the MAC. I think Syracuse has the better and more competent QB in this matchup. The Orange were a well-oiled offensive machine last year and I believe they’ll be too much for WMU to hang with down the stretch. Lay the points, play on Syracuse. Good luck…Larry |
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08-30-18 | Northwestern v. Purdue -3.5 | 31-27 | Loss | -102 | 268 h 43 m | Show | |
: My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Purdue (8:00 EST). These Big Ten Conference West Division foes battle on Opening night. Northwestern finished 10-3 last year and with a victory over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl, while Purdue went 7-6, capped off with a 38-35 victory over Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Boilermakers, as the Wildcats have won four straight in the series, including a 23-13 home victory last November. Northwestern was 7-2 in league play last year and it finished 57th in the nation in scoring with 29.2 PPG. The defense was also solid by conceding 20.1 PPG. QB Clayton Thorson was an unimpressive 2,844 yards with 15 TD’s and 12 INT’s last season. Jeremy Larkin had 503 yards and five TD’s on the ground. Jeff Brohm turned Purdue around last year and I think he’ll take the team a step further in 2018/19. Note that the Boilermakers had five straight losing seasons before last year’s winning one. Note as well that all five starters on the offensive line are back, which is huge, especially in the early going. Purdue also features two fantastic QB’s and a large stable of competent RB’s. If the defensive side of the ball can figure things out, then the Boilermakers really will make some serious noise this season. Last year Purdue put up 25.2 PPG, as Elijah Sindelar had 2,099 yards with 18 TD’s and seven INT’s. David Blough had 1,103 yards, nine TD’s and four INT’s. Markell Jones would contribute 566 yards on the ground and a TD. The revenge factor, combined with the dynamic QB duo of Sindelar and Blough make the home side the correct call in this Week 1 match-up. Lay the points, play on Purdue. Good luck…Larry |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest v. Tulane +7 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 268 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Tulane (8:00 EST). Wake returns 15 starters this year, with nine on the offensive side of the ball. Last year The Demon Deacons here 8-5 and finished averaging 35.3 points. True freshman QB Sam Hartman has won the job at QB position though and suffice it to say, I expect the rookie to struggle in his first game. While Wake is loaded with offensive talent, the defense remains a bit of a question mark. Just as it was last year too. The Green Wave return nine starters on offense last year as well. Tulane averaged 27.5 points last year. The option offense took a few games to get going, but note that the Green Wave were a perfect 4-0 when putting up 250 yards or more on the ground last season. QB Jon Banks enters his senior year and as the second leading rusher from a season ago. Ultimately I believe that Tulane has a very real shot at winning this one outright. The Green Wave’s offense is just as dynamic as Wake’s and I think it’ll give the visitors everything they can handle tonight. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Tulane. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-18 | Hawaii +14 v. Colorado State | Top | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 660 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Hawaii (7:30 EST). Two flawed teams go at it on opening day as the Rainbow Warriors try to keep things together around a new quarterback and the Rams are hoping for a completely rebuilt defense to figure things out until newcomers can gain enough experience to compete on a high level. The Hawaii QB figures to be strong-armed Cole McDonald, who at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds has the look of a solid QB, if not the resume. McDonald will resurrect the run-and-shoot offense that was abandoned last season, and he should have some opportunities against Colorado State, which gutted its defense (including the coaches) and is starting from scratch. But the tide goes both in and out in this one, as the Rainbow Warriors’ inexperience on offense (the O-Line and running game are starting over) could find it a challenge against even the Rams’ porous D. Hawaii has lost seven straight in this series, including a 30-point (51-21) drubbing last season on the island. With both programs struggling to gain traction, go with Hawaii to at least cover the 14 in a game that could be sloppy. Good luck…Larry |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -4.5 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -107 | 158 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Alabama (9:00 EST). No. 4, 12-1 Alabama gets ready to battle No. 3, 13-1 Georgia in the College Football Playoff title game on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Tide. Nick Saban is gunning for his sixth national title as he faces his former assist in Kirby Smart. The Tide come in hot, as they avenged their loss to Clemson in last year’s final by smashing it 24-6 in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama looked particularly impressive on the defensive side of the ball, holding a Tigers team that had averaged 35.5 points and 448.2 YPG, to just two FG’s and a total of 188 yards. Alabama would in fact go on to give just just 64 rushing yards in the victory. QB Jalen Hurts was an efficient 16 of 24 for 120 yards and a pair of TD’s (no INT’s.) Hurts also had 40 rushing yards, while the combo of Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris went for 101. I think Georgia comes in “gassed” after its thrilling, double OT win over Oklahoma. Sony Michel had 181 yards on 11 carries, while Nick Chubb added 145 yards on the ground. Jake Fromm was 20 of 29 for 210 yards and two TD’s. In all Georgia rolled up 527 yards off offense against a poor Sooners defense. But Fromm, Michel and Chubb will now face their stiffest defensive test of the season and suffice it to say, I believe they’re going to come up short. I’ll point out as well that Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games when playing the role of favorite, while Georgia is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten neutral site games when playing the role of underdog. Ultimately, I believe the Tide’s aggressive defense proves to be too much for the tired Bulldogs to overcome. Lay the points, play on Alabama. Good luck…Larry |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma | Top | 54-48 | Win | 100 | 488 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Georgia (5:00 EST). The 12-1 Georgia Bulldogs get ready to battle the 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners in the Rose Bowl for a chance at the National title on the line. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs. QB Kirby Smart led Georgia to an 8-1 SEC record and a convincing 28-7 win over Auburn for the SEC title. Oklahoma is led by QB Baker Mayfield, who would direct the Sooners to eight straight wins to end the season, including a 41-17 victory over TCU in the Big 12 title game. Georgia averages 34.0 PPG. QB Jake Fromm has thrown for 2,173 yards and owns a very respectable 21/5 TD/INT ratio. The offense revolves around the run though, led by Nick Chubb, who had 1,175 yards and 13 TD’s. The Bulldogs rank fourth overall on the defensive side of the ball by allowing just 270.9 YPG, led by LB Roquan Smith, who had 113 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Mayfield just earned AP Player of the Year honors for Oklahoma and in the conference championship game he had 243 yards, four TD’s as well as running for 65. Mayfield has a 41/5 TD/INT ratio. Oklahoma leads the country with an average of 583.3 YPG, while conceding just 384.7 overall. I’ll point out though that Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five Bowls, while Oklahoma is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site affairs. Georgia has the offense to hang with Oklahoma. The Bulldogs’ superior defense though is the difference maker for me. They say: “defense wins championships.” While it’s yet to be seen if the Bulldogs’ nation leading defensive unit can take the national title, all signs point to it being the deciding factor in this year’s Rose Bowl. Play on Georgia. Good luck…Larry |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -110 | 362 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Michigan (12:00 EST). Both South Carolina and Michigan finished with identical 8-4 records. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines will be out for a little redemption here though after a disappointing year. Michigan would go on to drop its final two games of the season against Wisconsin and Ohio State. QB John O’Korn and RB Karan Higdon have looked brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others. As South Carolina’s defense goes, so go the Gamecocks. Michigan’s defense is even better though. A major blow to the Gamecocks offense as well comes in the form of nagging injuries to both RB’s, as Rico Dowdle and AJ Turner suffered setbacks to end the season. Dowdle fractured his fibula, while Turner twisted an ankle. Both are listed as questionable, but if they do happen to suit up and play, one has to wonder how effective they’re really going to be? I’ll point out that South Carolina is just 1-3 ATS in its last four non-conference games, while Michigan is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival. Michigan has its issues, that’s why it’s playing in the Outback Bowl this year. But South Carolina is far from perfect either. I think Harbaugh has his team prepared for this one and I believe the Wolverine’s superior defense will also prove to be a big difference maker once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL +7 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -115 | 443 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The 12-1 Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on December 30th and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Gators. Miami comes into this one having lost two straight, most recently to Clemson in the ACC title game. Wisconsin also comes in off a loss, it’s only of the season with a setback to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers have the No. 1 defense in total yards allowed per game, allowing 253, while ranked third in conceding just 13.2 PPG. That defense though looked pretty medicore in the 27-21 Big Ten Championship Game loss to the Buckeyes. The loss dropped the team from the College Football Playoff: “It’s an honor and a privilege to be here,” Badgers’ head coach Paul Chryst said earlier in the week. “I’m really thankful for our team and what they’ve done to give us the opportunity to play in this game.… It’s an iconic bowl game.” The Hurricanes were upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 on Thanksgiving and fell flat in the ACC Championship game against Clemson 38-3. In the two games previous to that though Miami posted 41 points in wins over Notre Dame and Virginia. Unlike their counterpart today, the Hurricanes have had more time to process the upset/shock from losing. I think that despite the longer lay off, the Badgers come in still hung up on their monumental setback in the Big Ten Championship game: “Now that we’ve lost two in a row we don’t want to feel that way again,’’ Richt noted. “One of the most fun things in college football is the celebration with the team after a great victory. And one of the hardest things is being able to look everybody in the eye when it’s over and realize we couldn’t get it done. But the one thing about our team is we’ve done it all together. We’ve got great staff unity. We’ve got great player unity. And there’s a great trust factor with everybody. They did an awesome job of putting things into perspective. And now it’s time to turn the page and get after a really good team.’’ Unlike Richt’s team, Wisconsin clearly can’t be happy to be here after the perfect regular season record and then losing in such tragic fashion. An outright upset isn’t out of the question. A “TD” spread isn’t that large. But that said, in a tightly contested affair which I envision being decided late or in extra time even, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Hurricanes. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Holiday Bowl Oddsmaker’s Error is on Michigan State (9:00 EST). Michigan State won its final two games of the regular season and I expect that momentum to get carried over here. Washington State went just 3-3 down the stretch. All three losses come on the road, which doesn’t bode well obviously in this neutral site affair. Note that the Cougars were destroyed 41-14 in the Apple Cup against Washington. WSU QB Luke Falk was a stand out all year, finishing with 3,593 yards and a 30/13 TD/INT. MSU has held opponents to under 300 yards on average defensively. QB Brian Lewerke finished with a 17/6 TD/INT. Note that he also had 490 yards rushing and five more major scores on the ground. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Trojans WR Felton Davis III, who had 658 yards and eight TD’s this season. I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is 2-1 ATS in non-conference games this year, while Washington State is just 1-2 ATS in the same position. I think Michigan State is the more complete team and I expect this depth and overall skill to prove to be too much for Falk and the WSU offense to overcome. Play on Michigan State. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 36 h 34 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Stanford (9:00 EST). The Cardinal went 9-4 and lost to USC 31-28 in the Pac-12 Title game. The Horned Frogs were 10-3 and lost to Oklahoma 41-17 in the Big 12 Championship. Stanford averages 32.0 PPG and concedes just 21.5. QB KJ Costello had 192 yards and two TD’s in the loss to USC. RB Bryce Love had 125 yards and a TD in that one. Note that Love is a finalist for the Heisman Trophy this year after rushing for 1,973 yards and 17 TD’s. TCU averages 33.2 PPG and concedes 17.6. The Horned Frogs also struggled offensively in their title game, posting just 317 total yards off offense against a poor Sooners’ defense. QB Kenny Hill was a bright spot with 234 yards, two TD’s and an INT. I think it’s interesting to note though that Stanford is 5-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records, while TCU is just 2-4 ATS in the same position. I think Love puts his stamp on this game and carries his team to the promised land. That said, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Stanford. Good luck…Larry |
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12-27-17 | Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 37 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Purdue (8:30 EST). Arizona comes into the Foster Farms Bowl off two straight regular season losses to end the campaign. Purdue on the other hand won three of its last four to earn bowl qualification and suffice it to say, I expect the Boilermakers to carry that momentum over into this one. Purdue won’t be intimidated here, as it has some big wins under its belt already this season, including against Iowa, who had just blown out Ohio State the week prior. And in their regular season finale the Boilermakers found a way to get past Indiana 31-24. Arizona averages 41.8 PPG, but it doesn’t play a lick of defense, allowing an average of 467 YPG. In fact, over their last four games the Wildcats have given up an average of 42 points or more. Arizona QB Khalil Tate is a standout, although he’ll be nursing an injured shoulder in this one. Additionally I’ll point out that Purdue is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while Arizona is just 1-2 ATS in the same position. I think an outright upset is very possible, but in the end I’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the Boilermakers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-26-17 | Utah -7 v. West Virginia | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 358 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Utah (1:30 EST). It’s the Big 12 against the Pac 12 in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl on Tuesday. The Utes beat Colorado 34-13 in their regular season finale, while WVU was smashed 59-31 at No. 4 Oklahoma in its final regular season outing. Utah went gang-busters out of the gate this year with a 4-0 start, but then dropped six of eight before then closing with the win over Colorado to become bowl eligible. The Utes are ranked 45th in the country in passing offense with 255.3 YPG, while ranked 58th in scoring offense with 29.4 PPG. Defensively the team excels, ranked 40th by conceding just 23.1 PPG. QB Tyler Huntley has 2,246 yards, 15 TD’s and ten INT’s, while the ground game is lead by Zack Moss, who has 1,023 rushing yards plus nine major scores. WVU averages 324.2 YPG through the air and it’s ranked 19th in scoring with 36.3 PPG. The defense though is sub-par, ranked 92nd in conceding 31.6 PPG. QB Will Grier has 3,490 passing yards, 34 TD’s and 12 INT’s. RB Justin Crawford has 1,061 yards on the ground and seven TD’s. I’ll point out though that Utah is 6-2 ATS as a favorite this year, while WVU is just 1-3 ATS when playing the role of underdog. Grier is expected to be healed for this one from hand surgery, but one has to wonder if he’ll be at 100% capacity? I think that Utah’s top notch defense turns out to the difference maker once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State +2.5 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 317 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Fresno State (8:30 EST). The AAC squares off against the MWC in the Hawaii Bowl this year, as Houston and Fresno State battle it out at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. The Cougars enter off a 24-14 home win over Navy to finish the regular season at 7-4, while the Bulldogs come in off a 17-14 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West title game. Houston’s strength is on the the offensive side, ranked 67th in scoring at 28.4 PPG. Defensively the team has struggled at times, ranked 39th in the nation in conceding 23 PPG. In the win over Navy, QB D’Eriq King was 21 of 27 for 277 yards, a TD and no INT’s. Fresno State averages 26.8 PPG, while on the defensive it concedes just 17.2 PPG (ranked ninth.) While the Bulldogs lost in the title game to the Broncos, the week before in their season finale they beat Boise State 28-17. In the loss last week Fresno State gave up just 364 yard to the Broncos, including only 109 on the ground. QB Marcus McMaryion has been solid overall this year despite struggling last week, with 2,384 yards, 14 TD’s and just four INT’s. I’ll point out as well that Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six on field turf, while Fresno State is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 on field turf. Houston only gets the slight nod offensively here. However, these defenses are no comparison. I think the Bulldogs’ World class defense turns out to the difference maker in this year’s Hawaii Bowl. Play on Fresno State. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on San Diego State (3:30 EST). The 10-2 San Diego State Aztecs get ready to battle the 8-3 Army Black Knights on Saturday afternoon in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Rashaad Penny and the Aztecs. SDSU’s star RB will NOT be skipping the Armed Forces Bowl in preparation for the NFL draft. The Aztecs finished with a 10-2 record and went 6-2 in MWC play. SDSU’s defense is ranked 15th in the country, conceding just 304 total yards per game. The Aztecs are led by Penny on offense, who has 2,027 rushing yards and 19 TD’s so far this year. Junior QB Christian Chapman had a 13/3 TD/INT. Army finished 9-3. The Black Knights come into this one off a win over Navy in their regular season finale. QB Ahmad Bradshaw finished the year with 1,566 rushing and 12 rushing TD’s. Like its counterpart today, Army’s offense revolves around the run, led by Darnell Woolfolk and Kell Walker. The Black Knights own the No. 1 rushing offense in the country, but their defense has been hit or miss. Army had its six game win streak snapped in a 52-49 loss to North Texas on November 18th, only to then rebound in the 14-13 win over Navy. I’ll point out as well that SDSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing, while Army is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less. SDSU’s strength on defense is against the run, holding opponents to just 110.8 per game average. The Aztecs though also feature a top notch offense led by the Nation’s leading rusher. All signs point to a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International +7.5 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -130 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Florida International (8:00 EST). The Owls finished 6-6 on the year, managing to move to .500 after beating Tulsa 43-22 in their finale. FIU finished 8-4 and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Temple QB Frank Nutile was 20 of 28 for 262 yards, three TD’s an no INT’s in the Owls win over the Golden Hurricanes. Nutile has been decent in his limited time this year, although he does sport a pedestrian 11/7 TD/INT ratio. The defense looked poor last week, allowing Tulsa to post 460 yards, including 314 on the ground. The Owls average 24.6 PPG and concede 27.7. The Golden Panthers average 27.5 PPG and concede 28.5. QB Alex McGough had 295 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win over UMass, while also rushing for 108 yards and a TD. The defense looked shaky in allowing 548 yards. However I’ll point out that Temple is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FIU is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. Florida International scored 104 points combined over its last two regular season games and I look for that offensive momentum to get carried per here. Grab the points, Good luck…Larry |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Louisiana Tech (8:00 EST). 6-6 Louisiana Tech gets ready to battle 7-5 SMU in the Frisco Bowl from Texas on Wednesday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs come in with momentum, as they needed to win their final two games of the regular season to qualify for a bowl. The Mustangs on the other hand sort of backed their way into the postseason, losing three straight before salvaging a win over Tulane in their finale. Louisiana Tech has been fantastic defensively down the stretch and I think that carries over here. Note that Secdrick Cooper and Jaylon Ferguson were both named to the All-Conference USA First Team earlier in the week: “We are excited, enthusiastic, and fired up about having the opportunity to go to a bowl game this year and this could not have worked out better,” head coach Skip Holtz noted. “We have been in the Dallas Metroplex area three out of the last four years and we have a huge alumni base in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.” SMU is back in a bowl for the first time since 2012. Chad Morris was in his third year as head coach, but he won’t be coaching tonight as he’s been lured away by Arkansas. The Mustangs’ offense is centred around the run, led by Ke’Mon Freeman and Xavier Jones, with a combined 20 major scores between the two. I think it’s interesting to note though that Louisiana Tech is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival (including 2-1 ATS this season), while SMU is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven in the same position (including just 1-2 ATS this year.) I think the Bulldogs under-the-radar defense keeps them competitive. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-17 | Akron +23 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 3-50 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Akron (7:00 EST). The 7-6 Akron Zips get ready to battle the 10-3 FAU Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. The Zips were 6-3 in MAC play, while FAU was 9-0 in C-USA action. Akron is by far the more motivated side in my opinion. The Zips fell 45-28 in the MAC Championship game to Toledo. Expect to see both Kato Nelson and Thomas Woodson under center today for the Zips. Woodson finished with 1,777 passing yards, while Nelson had an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. The Owls finished with nine straight wins and steamrolled UNT 41-17 in the C-USA title game. FAU features a strong run game, led by RB Devin Singletary, who had 1,796 rushing yards and 29 rushing TD’s. I’ll point out though that FAU TE Harrison Bryant, who missed the last two games with an injury, will also be sitting this one out. Bryant posted 408 receiving yards and five major scores. Additionally note that Akron is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two week or more period of rest, while FAU is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position. I think that Akron’s offense can keep it competitive, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 121 h 8 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Marshall (4:30 EST). The 7-5 Marshall Thundering Herd get ready to battle the 7-8 Colorado State Rams in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Marshall. Marshall QB Chase Litton finished with a 23/12 TD/INT and threw at least one TD strike in all but two games this year. The Herd feature two capable backs in Tyler King and Keion Davis. Marshall’s strength is on the defensive side, especially against the run. The Rams weakness is on the defensive side, especially against pass heavy offenses. QB Nick Stevens had a 27/10 TD/INT. Colorado State also features a strong run game led by Dalyn Dawkins, who had 1,349 rushing yards on the year. I’ll point out though that the Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last six folliowing an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site affairs, while the Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site contests. Marshall has the better overall defense, allowing an average of just 125 rushing yards per game. Colorado State allows an average of 243 passing yards per game. I like Litton to light up this suspect Rams secondary and for Marshall to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7.5 v. Boise State | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Oregon (3:30 EST). Boise State enters off a 17-14 win in the Mountain West title game back on December 2nd, while Oregon won its final two of the regular season (which included an impressive 69-10 win over Oregon State in “The Civil War.”) The Broncos finished 39th in scoring this year with an average of 32.1 PPG. Boise State was decent defensively as well, allowing 22.5 PPG. QB Montell Cozart had 747 yards, ten TD’s and one INT. He’d go on to finish third on the team in rushing with 361 yards and four scores. QB Brett Rypien had 2,515 yards, 14 TD’s and four INT’s. Oregon averaged 36.7 PPG and allowed 28.3. QB Justin Herbert had 1,750 yards, 13 TD’s and three INT’s. RB Royce Freeman has 1,475 rushing yards and 16 major scores on the ground. I’ll point out as well that Oregon is already 1-0 ATS this year when playing with two or more weeks of rest and also 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played on “turf,” while Boise State is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 non-conference games and just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records. I think the Ducks carry over the momentum that they found in the final two regular season games and I have a hard time seeing the Broncos keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | North Texas +7 v. Troy | 30-50 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 38 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on North Texas (1:00 EST). North Texas comes off a 41-17 loss to Florida Atlantic in the A-10 Championship Game, while Troy tied Appalachian State for the Sun Belt title. The Mean Green had little chance against high-powered FAU, which would wind up going undefeated in conference action. QB Mason Fine threw two INT’s in the loss. In three games previous though Fine had posted a 9/2 TD/INT. Troy has the better overall record than App State at 10-2, but both teams went 7-1 in conference action. The Trojans beat Arkansas State 32-25, but gave up over more than 300 yards then they themselves registered. I’ll point out that UNT is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games, while Troy is 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory and just 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Florida Atlantic was a team of destiny this season. UNT though excelled down the stretch of the regular season and I like the Mean Green bounce back and to keep this one competitive down the stretch. Grab the points, play on North Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Army v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Navy (3:00 EST). The 8-3 Army Black Knights get ready to battle the 6-5 Navy Midshipmen in the annual Army/Navy game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Midshipmen. Army comes in off a disturbing 52-49 loss to North Texas, while Navy fell 24-14 to Houston in its latest action. Note that this is a revenge game for Navy. Last year Army would break a 14-game losing streak in the series, prevailing 27-17. The 52 points and 489 total yards given up last week were both season highs for Army. Overall the Black Knights were strong defensively this year, but I think there’s cause for concern if you’re an Army fan. Army leads the country with an average of 368 rushing yards per game. Navy QB Zach Abey was just 2 of 4 for 45 yards last week. But like the Knights, the Midshipmen are a run first offnese, as Abey has 1,322 rushing yards, along with 14 major scores on the ground this season. RB Malcom Perry was a bright spot in Navy’s most recent loss, rushing for 82 yards on 15 carries. Army has beaten up on “lesser” competition all year and the Black Knights defense was exposed in the loss to North Texas. Adittionally note that Army is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS this season on games played on “turf,” while Navy is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 5-3 ATS in games played on turf. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the day. Lay the points, play on Navy. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Clemson | 3-38 | Loss | -130 | 152 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The Hurricane had a letdown in their finale, falling 24-14 at Pittsburgh to finish 7-1 in conference action, while the Tigers also went 7-1 in the ACC and would go on to spank South Carolina 34-10 in their final regular season game. The Hurricanes clearly got caught “looking ahead” to this game and stumbled at the worst time last week. Regardless of that “dud” though, Miami Florida comes in ranked 40th in the country in scoring with 31.9 PPG average, while ranked 15th overall on the defensive side by conceding just 18.3 PPG. Miami QB Malik Rosier has 2,798 yards with a 25/9 TD/INT ratio. Clemson averages 35.2 PPG and concedes 13.6. QB Kelly Bryant has 2,426 yards and a 12/6 TD/INT, while also running for 639 yards and ten more TD’s. The Hurricanes are banged up at RB, but note that Miami Florida is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Also note that Clemson is still just 3-5 ATS in its last eight against the conference. I think last week was a wake up call for Miami Florida. The Hurricanes have the defense to slow down this dynamic Clemson offense and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do expect the hungry/taltented Canes to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | Georgia +2.5 v. Auburn | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 147 h 23 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Georgia (4:00 EST). My one and only 10* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR was on Auburn last weekend and the Tigers would go on to beat No. 1 Alabama outright. But for the SEC Championship Game, I’m “flipping the script” and going with the underdog again, as I expect Auburn to come in “hung over” still from that emotional upset victory. There’s a lot on the line today, as the winner will almost assuredly get an invite to the College Football Playoff. Since losing to Auburn earlier in the year, Georgia bounced back by hammering Kentucky 42-13 and then smashing Georgia Tech 38-7 this past weekend. Georgia racked up 247 rushing yards in that one. Which wasn’t the case in the first game against the Tigers, who limited the Bulldogs to just 46 yards. QB Jake Fromm was just 13 of 28 for 184 yards, one TD and no INT’s, while Auburn’ QB Jarrett Stidham had 214 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. “You don’t shake a memory,” Georgia head coach Kirby Smart assessed earlier in the week. “You put it in their face and you challenge people. Fundamentally, we’ve got to play better than we played last time and we obviously have got to play with more discipline and composure to avoid the knucklehead decisions that we had in the game. You can’t give good teams things. If you give them things, it makes it twice as hard…. But at the end of the day, it really is not about the game before. It’s really about the motivation in the game. Our kids understand that. They know they’ve got an opportunity to go out and at least erase what they did last time. This is a fresh start to go out and play a new game.” I’ll point out though that Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (including 4-0 ATS this season), while Auburn is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference rival. I think Georgia rides the “revenge” angle to victory today. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -5.5 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 144 h 4 m | Show | |
8* PERFECT STORM on Oklahoma (12:30 EST). The No. 2, 11-1 Oklahoma Sooners get ready to battle the No. 10, 10-2 TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday afternoon in the Big 12 Championship game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Sooners. When these teams played on November 11th from Norman, Oklahoma smashed TCU 38-20, rolling up 533 yards of offense, including 333 through the air from dynamic QB Baker Mayfield (3 TD’s.) THe Horned Frogs come in off a 45-22 home win over Baylor last Saturday. QB Kenny Hill had 325 yards and three TD’s. Hill has 2,604 passing yards and a 19/5 TD/INT. The TCU offense averages 422.1 YPG (47th), while the defense has been hit or miss, great against the run (90 YPG) and poor against the pass (227.5 YPG allowed.) The Sooners will need to win this game to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Mayfield finished with 4,097 yards and a 37/5 TD/INT. Oklahoma’s weakness comes on the defensive side, where it allows 390.3 YPG, including 241.2 through the air. Oklahoma averages 45.2 PPG though and I simply can’t see Hill and company matching pace down the stretch. Mayfield is a man on a mission right now. Also note that TCU is just 2-4 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival, while Oklahoma is 4-3 ATS this year in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-17 | Stanford v. USC -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 127 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on USC (8:00 EST). The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal are ready to duke it out with the 10-2 USC Trojans on Friday night for the SEC title. If recent history is any precedence, then USC has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met back in early September, it was the Trojans that pulled away for the easy 42-24 victory. Stanford comes in off two straight wins, most recently handling Notre Dame last week. QB KJ Costello had 1,169 passing yards and a 9/2 TD/INT ratio this season. The Cardinal offense though revolves around the run led by Bryce Love, who has posted over 100 yards in all but one game this year. Stanford also has a strong defense which concedes just 20 PPG. That defense though could not contain the high-flying Trojans in September, allowing 623 total yards. USC allows 26 PPG and it’s been better against the run than the pass. QB Sam Darnold had 3,462 passing yards and a 24/12 TD/INT ratio this year. Overall the offense is ranked 18th in the country by averaging 489 yards per contest. I’ll point out as well that Stanford is 0-5 ATS this year following an ATS victory, while the Trojans are interestingly 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. Darnold torched the Cardinal for four TD’s and the Trojans piled on over 620 yards of offense in the first game. I have a hard time seeing Stanford slowing down Darnold again. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | North Carolina +17 v. NC State | 21-33 | Win | 100 | 126 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on North Carolina (3:30 EST). I’m expecting a much closer “Tobbacco Road” battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. UNC won its second straight, most recently dispatching Western Carolina 65-10 at home on Saturday. Suffice it to say, I think the Tar Heels are going to carry over that confidence and momentum here. NC State on the other hand lost for the third time in its last four games in a 30-24 road setback to Wake Forest this past weekend. Note that this is a revenge game for North Carolina after the Wolfpack won 28-21 in last year’s meeting. North Carolina averages 26.5 PPG and allows 31.1. QB Chazz Surratt has 1,342 passing yards, eight TD’s and three INT’s, while adding 40 yards and three more scores on the ground. RB Jordon Brown has 589 yards and four TD’s on the ground. NC State averages 30.4 PPG and concedes 25.1. QB Ryan Finley has 2,992 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s. RB Nyheim Hines has 844 yards and seven TD’s on the ground. I’ll point out though that UNC is still 9-4 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while NC State is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home (including only 1-3 ATS this year.) The Tar Heels have won two straight and I think they’ll give the Wolfpack everything they can handle tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Alabama v. Auburn +4 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 147 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on Auburn (8:00 EST). The 11-0 Alabama Crimson Tide are at Auburn to take on the 9-2 Tigers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Alabama is ranked No. 1 after crushing FCS Mercer 56-0 at home last weekend. Auburn also comes in off a “cream puff,” smashing UL Monroe 42-14. Alabama held Mercer to just 161 total yards in the blowout victory. In all ‘Bama would post 530 yards, including 265 on the ground. The Tide rank ninth in rushing yards per game, with 270.3 per contest, with Damien Harris leading the way with 855 thus far. Alabama continues to get the job done with smothering defensive play and a nation leading rushing attack. Auburn seemed like it was getting caught “looking ahead” to the Iron Bowl this weekend against UL Monroe last Saturday, as the Tigers went into half time with just a 14-7 lead. However, Auburn woke up in a big way in the second half, scoring a quick 21 unanswered points. QB Jarrett Stidham had 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall Auburn averages 475.9 YPG, with 231.9 on the ground. Defensively the Tigers have been dominant as well, conceding just 302.5 YPG overall, including only 118.2 on the ground (ranked 16th in the country.) And I believe Auburn’s tough run defense will prove to be a big difference maker today. I’ll point out as well that Alabama is just 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Auburn is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position. There’s no way the Tigers go down without a fight in their season finale in front of the home town crowd. I’m banking on a nail-biter, so grab the points! Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Connecticut +5.5 v. Cincinnati | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 123 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on UConn (12:00 EST). Both teams are looking to close out miserable season’s with an elusive victory. UConn has lost four straight, most recently to Boston College. Cincinnati is also just 3-8 this year, going just 1-7 in its last eight overall. In their 38-16 loss to BC, Huskies’ QB David Pindell had 241 yards, one TD and three INT’s. It was a cold, blustery day at Fenway Park and Pindell would struggle for the most part. The Bearcats enter off a 48-20 loss to East Carolina. Cincinnati is ranked dead last in the AAC in total offense. Last week the Bearcats finished with 326 total yards of offense. Note that UConn is already 4-3 ATS against the conference this year, while Cincinnati is just 2-5 ATS in the same position. The Bearcats are 103rd in the country in total offense. Pindell and company don’t have to do too much to keep this one close and the outright win isn’t out of the question either obviously. In a contest which I foresse being decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Indiana v. Purdue -2.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Purdue (12:00 EST). Home field advantage will prove to be the difference maker today between two teams sitting at 5-6. Each side will be laying everything on the line as it tries to punch its ticket to bowl eligibility. Indiana kept is playoff hopes alive with a second straight win by smashing Rutgers 41-0 at home last Saturday, while Purdue enters off a big 24-15 road win at Iowa last Saturday. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Boilermakers though, who have lost four straight in the series, including a 26-24 setback in the most recent matchup last November 26th. Indiana comes into the final game of the year ranked 74th in scoring offense with an average of just 27.1 PPG, while ranked 45th on the defensive side by conceding 24.8. QB Richard Lagow has 1,563 yards, 12 TD’s and seven INT’s, while Peyton Ramsey has 1,252 yards, ten TD’s and five INT’s. Purdue ranks 104th in scoring offense by averaging only 23.7 PPG, but it gets the job done most weekends with its powerful defensive play, a unit which is ranked 18th overall by conceding just 18.9 PPG. QB David Blough has 1,103 yards, nine TD’s and four INT’s. Blough’s been out for a bit though and back up Elijah Sindelar has been good in replacement, going for 1,544 yards, 12 TD’s and six iINT’s. I’ll point out that Indiana is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of more than 20 points, while Purdue is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 after posting less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game. I like the Boilermakers to continue their “lights out” defensive play and carry over their momentum from their impressive victory over the Hawkeyes. Indiana has struggled on the road for the most part this year and I think it looks primed for a letdown after the back-to-back victories. Lay the points, play on Purdue. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Texas Tech +10.5 v. Texas | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 107 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* FOX-TV GAME OF THE YEAR is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST). Texas Tech has lost five of six, including a 27-3 setback to TCU on Saturday. Texas Tech will need an outright win today to move back to .500. Texas Tech has struggled offensively of late, posting 27 points or less in three of its last five games. Texas had endured an up and down season, but enters off a 28-14 win over WVU. I’m going to caution reading too much into the Longhorns defensive performance last week against the Mountaineers, as WVU starting QB Will Grier was hurt early. The Longhorns have to be feeling pretty content after finally punching their sixth win of the year last week. Texas is now bowl eligible. The Red Raiders still need one more victory before they’ll be included in any bowl game in December though, so there’s no questioning whether or not Texas Tech will be motivated today. Also note that the Red Raiders are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Texas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins. Letdown spot for Texas, while Texas Tech leaves everything on the line. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Iowa v. Nebraska +3 | 56-14 | Loss | -100 | 103 h 52 m | Show | |
My 9* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Nebraska (4:00 EST). Iowa will be hungry here after dropping its second straight, most recently a 24-15 setback at home to Purdue. Nebraska though can empathize, as it dropped its third straight and fifth in it last six in a 56-44 shootout loss to Penn State on the road last week. Note that the Huskers play with revenge here, as Iowa has taken the last two in the series, most recently a 40-10 home victory last November 25th. After upsetting Ohio State, Iowa has fallen flat in back-to-back outings, moving to just 3-5 in Big Ten play. The Hawkeyes are ranked 87th in the nation in scoring with 25.8 PPG, while ranked 26th defensively in conceding 20.5. QB Nathan Stanley has 2,146 yards, 23 TD’s and six INT’s. Nebraska is ranked 76th in scoring offense with 26.8 PPG, while ranked 106th in scoring defense by allowing 34.8. QB Tanner Lee has 2,938 passing yards, 21 TD’s and 13 INT’s. I’ll point out though that Iowa is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival (including only 1-2 ATS this season), while Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses and 6-5 ATS in its last 11 off a loss against a conference rival. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Play on Nebraska. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | New Mexico +20 v. San Diego State | 10-35 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on New Mexico (3:30 EST). The 3-8 New Mexico Lobos are in SDSU to take on the 9-2 Aztecs on Friday afternoon and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do definitely expect the visitors to keep this on a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. New Mexico has lost six straight, but it looked competitive in last week’s 38-35 loss to UNLV. SDSU is in a dog fight to the end and most recently beat Nevada 42-23. The Lobos went toe-to-toe with red hot UNLV QB Armani Rogers, but in the end it wasn’t to be. However, I absolutely believe New Mexico will bring that same intensity over into the season finale. Aztecs’ RB Rashaad Penny had a monster game last weekend, exploding for 429 all purpose yards. It was an amazing day, but I have a hard time seeing Penny duplicating such massive efforts on back-to-back weeks. I’ll point out as well that New Mexico is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a loss against a conference rival and 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points, while SDSU is just 2-4 ATS at home this year. I think SDSU goes up early and takes the foot off the gas late, allowing the hungry Lobos to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Baylor +24 v. TCU | 22-45 | Win | 100 | 99 h 54 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Baylor (12:00 EST). Baylor is just 1-10 on the year. The Bears beat Kansas, but they’ve since dropped back to back games to Texas Tech and then to Iowa State. TCU is 9-2 after destroying Texas Tech this past weekend. The Bears were competitive in a 23-13 loss to Iowa State Saturday and they’ll look to play spoiler to a TCU team which must win today to lock up its spot in the conference championship against Oklahoma. TCU beat Texas Tech 27-3 last weekend, but freshman QB Shawn Robison (filling in for Kenny Hill), wasn’t overly spectacular, finishing with 85 yards, one TD and zero INT’s. Hill is probable for this one, but one has to wonder if he’ll really be at 100% at this point? I’ll point out as well that Baylor is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while TCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. I think the pressure gets to TCU this weekend and Iook for the the Bears to keep this one competitive unitl the final quarter. Grab the points. Good luck….Larry |
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11-21-17 | Miami-OH v. Ball State +18 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST). The 4-7 Miami Ohio Redhawks are at Ball State to take on the 2-9 Cardinals on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Ball State comes in off a 40-24 loss at home to Buffalo last Thursday, while the Redhawks fell 27-24 at home to EMU on Wednesday, putting the final nail in the coffin for Miami Ohio’s bowl hopes. The Redhawks hurt themselves with two turnovers last week. Gus Ragland was 22 of 32 for 251 yards and a TD. Miami Ohio will finish ranked 71st in total offense and 38th in total defense. The Cardinals’ Jack Milas had 127 yards and two TD’s last week, while Caleb Huntley added 141 yards on 26 carries. Ball State is ranked 118th overall on offense and 100th on the defensive side. Miami Ohio is the better team, but it comes off the deflating, season ending loss just last week. Ball State has been out of it for a while but won’t be lacking for motivation in its final home game of the year (also note that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this series.) For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Connecticut v. Boston College -21.5 | Top | 16-39 | Win | 100 | 76 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (7:00 EST). The Eagles had their three-game win streak snapped in a tight 17-14 setack at home to NC State last Saturday, while UConn enters off a third straight setback, getting spanked 49-24 at No. 12 UCF last Saturday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Eagles have to be liking their chances today as they have in fact won the last five in this series, including a 30-0 victory at home last November 19th. BC needs just one more win to become bowl eligible, so it won’t be leaving anything to chance this evening. The Eagles average 23.3 PPG and concede 24. QB Anthony Brown has 1,367 yards, 11 TD’s and nine INT’s, while RB Jon Hillman has 441 yards and three scores as well. The Huskies average 24.8 PPG and concede 39.4 QB Bryant Shirreffs has 2,287 passing yards, 14 TD’s and five INT’s. I’ll point out though that BC is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while UConn is a poor 5-22-2 ATS in its last 29 non-conference contests. BC is good defensively and it won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. I’m expecting another rout from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Illinois +41 v. Ohio State | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 72 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on Illinois (3:30 EST). The 2-8 Fighting Illini are in Ohio to take the 8-2 Buckeyes and while I’m obviously not expecting an upset today, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up. The Illini come in off a 24-14 loss to Indiana, while Ohio State bounced back from a setback to Iowa to smash Michigan State 48-3 at home. Note that when these teams played last year, not surprisingly it was Ohio State which scored the 28-3 victory. Illinois QB Jeff George Jr. has 1,273 passing yards, seven TD’s and ten INT’s. Last week he went for 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. Ohio State QB JT Barrett looked a lot better last week, but he still threw two INT’s. Barrett has 2,564 passing yards and 30 TD’s this year. I’ll point out though that Illinois is 2-0 ATS in its last two as an underdog of 31 points or more, while Ohio State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a favorite of 31 points or more. I think this line is an over-reaction to last week’s annihilation of the Spartans. Clearly the Buckeyes are the better team, but Illinois has been competitve in most games this year and it’s defense is a strong point. Grab the points, play on the Illini. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Kentucky +21.5 v. Georgia | 13-42 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on Kentucky (3:30 EST). The 7-3 Kentucky Wildcats are at No. 7 Georgia to take on the 9-1 Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Georgia was crushed 40-17 by Auburn last week and I think it’ll have a predictable letdown here. Kentucky enters with a ton of momentum, posting the 44-21 road win over Vanderbilt last Saturday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Wildcats as well after Georgia edged Kentucky 27-24 on the road last year. Last week Kentucky posted 427 total yards and forced four INTS’s and held the Commodores to just 60 yards rushing on 20 carries. Wildcats’ QB Stephen Johnson was 13 of 17 for 195 yards and was complimented by RB Ben Snell Jr. who has 116 yards and three TD’s. Note that Kentucky has been exceptional against the run this year, holding opponents to just 121.9 YPG thus far. Georgia RB Nick Chubb was held to 27 yards on 11 carries last week. QB Jake From was 13 of 28 for 184 yards and one meaningless TD at the end of the game. I’ll point out that Kentucky is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while Georgia is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. I like the Wildcats to take advantage of a Bulldogs team still dwelling on last week’s loss and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do absolutely expect this one to be a lot closer than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. Grab the points, play on Kentucky. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Iowa State v. Baylor +9.5 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 10 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Baylor (2:30 EST). Iowa State became bowl eligible and has since dropped two straight. The Cyclones will look to get back on track here, but I think that the home side offers great value in an upset role. The Cyclones are now also officially out of contention for the Big 12 title after falling to Oklahoma State last weekend. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Iowa State QB Kyle Kempt left at halftime with an injury last week, forcing Zeb Noland into action and while the backup looked good in the 49-42 defeat in his limited time, starting on the road even at lowly Baylor is a tall order and a quick turnaround. After beating Kansas, the Bears fell 38-24 to Texas Tech last Saturday. QB Charlie Brewer was 43 of 63 for 417 yards, three TD’s and one INT. I like Brewer to carry over his momentum here in front of the home town crowd. Note that Iowa State is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on field turf, while Baylor is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. The Bears are terrible, but Brewer has been a bright spot. I like the gun-slinger to keep his team in this one late, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Virginia +19 v. Miami-FL | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 69 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Virgnia (12:00 EST). Virginia is bowl eligible already, but it comes off its third loss in its last four games, falling 38-21 at Louisville last weekend. Miami can now feel the pressure as it’s still unbeaten after steamrolling Notre Dame 41-8 last week. Note that this is a revenge game for Virginia as well, as Miami has taken the last two, including 34-14 on the road on November 12, 2016. The Cavs rank 47th in the country in passing offense with an average of 251.8 YPG. Overall the team ranks 85th in scoring with 25.8 PPG, while ranked 67th on the defensive side by conceding 26.6 points. QB Kurt Benkert has 2,492 yards, 21 TD’s and just seven INT’s. RB Olamide Zaccheaus has caught 70 passes for 727 yards, four TD’s and had added 22 carries for 153 yards and another score on the ground. Miami averages 32.6 PPG, while conceding just 16.6. QB Malik Rosier has 2,410 yards, 20 TD’s and seven INT’s. RB Travis Homer has 758 yards and six scores on the ground. I’ll point out though that Virginia is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 16-9 ATS in its last 25 when playing the role of underdog. I think the Hurricanes manage the win, but I like Virginia to keep this one much more interesting than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-17 | UNLV +2 v. New Mexico | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 111 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR is on UNLV (9:30 EST). UNLV will need to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With a date against 2-8 Nevada next weekend, the Runnin’ Rebels have a very real shot at actually reaching the six win plateau with a big effort today. New Mexico needed to win last week to keep its bowl hopes alive, but it instead got annihilated 55-14 by Texas A&M. With nothing left to play for, we expect the Lobos to come in disinterested and flat-footed this week. The Rebels average 29.2 PPG and allow 32.3. QB Armani Rodgers has 1,100 yards, five TD’s and five INT’s, while also adding 538 yards on the ground and another sixscores. Johnny Stanton has 724 yards passing, four TD’s and two INT’s threw the air and 96 yards plus two major scores on the ground. The Lobos average 22.3 PPG and concede 30.9 QB Lamar Jordan has 593 yards passing along with three TD’s and five INT’s. I’ll point out though that the Runnin Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four following an ATS loss, while the Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last four after posting less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. I like the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on UNLV. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-17 | Buffalo v. Ball State +17.5 | Top | 40-24 | Win | 100 | 84 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST). Buffalo will need to win its final two games to become bowl eligible. A date against the lowly 2-8 Ball State Cardinals is just what the doctor ordered this week. However with a date against 8-2 Ohio in the season finale, the Bulls’ chances of actually reaching the six win plateau this year are extremely small. The Bobcats will be fighting until the final whistle as they try to capture the league crown. With that sad fact already in the front of their brains, I do think that the Bulls are set up for a small letdown this weekend. Buffalo averages 27.3 PPG and concedes 25 PPG. QB Tyree Jackson has 1,452 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also adding another 220 on the ground and four more major scores. Ball State averages 18.4 PPG and concedes 42. QB Riley Neal has 658 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s, while also rushing for another 67. Caleb Huntley has been a strong in the ground attack with 703 yards and three TD’s. I’ll point out though that Buffalo has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 2-4 ATS n its last six off a win against a conference rival. And note, as horrible as Ball State has been, it’s actually 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I like the home side to keep this one interesting. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-17 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -9.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Northern Illinois (7:00 EST). Northern Illinois is now 7-3 after last week’s 63-17 annihilation of Ball State. The Huskies sit just a game back of Toledo in the West Division of the MAC and they’re tied with the Rockets at 5-1 in Conference play. Western Michigan on the other hand looks primed for an immediate letdown in my opinion after posting its sixth win of the year in last week’s 48-20 win over Kent. Note that this is a revenge game for Northern Illinois as well after WMU took this game at home 45-30 last season. The Broncos average 36.6 points and concede 27.6. Jarvion Franklin has 1,061 rushing yards and ten TD’s this year and had 191 yards and a major score against the Golden Flashes last week. WMU is one of the best rushing teams in the nation, but that unfortunately plays right into the strength of the Huskies defense, which is tenth against the run in the nation. Northern Illinois averages 30.3 PPG, while conceding just 18.8 PPG on the defensive side. I’ll point out as well that WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Northern Illinois is 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 following a SU win over more than 20 points. The Broncos are going back to a bowl, which is mission accomplished for a team which lost a lot from last year’s squad that went undefeated until its bowl game. I like the Huskies to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and I expect WMU to throw in the white towel early. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-17 | Ohio v. Akron +13 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Akron (7:00 EST). The 8-2 Ohio Bobcats are in Akron to take on the 5-5 Zips and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Ohio comes in off a 38-10 win over Toledo, while Akron lost 24-14 to Miami Ohio. Last year these two teams played to a very tight decision, with the Bobcats holding on for the eventual 9-3 victory from Ohio. Bobcats’ QB Nathan Rourke was just seven of 15 for 139 yards, a TD and a pick last week, but he did add 115 yards rushing. In all Ohio racked up 393 rushing yards last week. Akron will be out to atone for it’s effort last Saturday, producing just 273 total yards of offense against the Redhawks. QB Kato Nelson was 19 of 38 for 218 yards and a TD. I’ll point out though that Ohio is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range, while Akron is 2-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records. The Zips are running out of chances and need one more win to become bowl eligible. Akron won’t be lacking in motivation today. Ohio has two cream puffs to end the season, with a date at Buffalo next weekend, so it could be caught looking ahead as well. Outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to this one being decided late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Fresno State v. Hawaii +9.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -108 | 82 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Hawaii (11:00 EST). The 6-3 Fresno State Bulldogs are in Hawaii to take on the 3-6 Rainbow Warriors. I’m not going to call for an outright victory, but I do think that the hungry home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Bulldogs looked pretty bad in their win over a horrible BYU team last week. QB Marcus McMaryion was 14 of 20 for 174 yards and no TD’s. RB Jordan Mims had 54 yards and two TD’s. Fresno State’s strength has been on the defensive side of the ball, holding teams to an average of 18 PPG. With the win though, the Bulldogs have become bowl eligible and suffice it to say, i think they’re primed for a letdown here. The Warriors have lost two straight, most recently a hard-fought 31-23 setback to UNLV. QB Dru Brown was 24 of 47 for 269 yards and a TD. RB Diccemy Saint Juste had 111 yards rushing and a TD on 20 carries. I’ll point out though that Fresno State is already 1-2 ATS this year against teams with losing records and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while Hawaii is 2-1 ATS in its last three after allowing 30 points or more in its previous contest. I like the Warriors to play for pride today and to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Play on Hawaii. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Washington State -1 v. Utah | 33-25 | Win | 100 | 77 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Washington State (5:30 EST). The 8-2 Washington State Cougars are in Utah to take on the 5-4 Utes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side. The Cougars got back on track with a 24-21 upset win at home over then No. 21 Stanford last weekend after it had dropped two of three coming in. The Utes snapped a four-game slide with a 48-17 win over UCLA last Friday night. WSU is ranked second in the country with an average of 381.7 passing YPG. Overall the Cougars are tied for 33rd in averaing 33 PPG. Defensively the teams ranks 39th by conceding just 22.7. Washington State QB Luke Falk has 2,913 yards, 26 TD’s and one INT this season. In last week’s win the Cougars held a dominant 430-198 advantage in total offense. Utah averages 255.3 passing yards per game and is ranked 58th overall in total offense by putting up 29.4 PPG. The defense has also been decent, conceding 23.1 per contest. QB Tyler Huntley has 1,648 passing yards, 12 TD’s and six INT’s on the season. RB Zack Moss leads the way on the ground with 740 yards and three major scores. I’ll point out though that WSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while the Utes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. The Cougars’ are the more complete team over all three phases and I also give a big nod to Falk over Huntley at the QB position as well. Play on Washington State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -11.5 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wisconsin (3:30 EST). The 6-2 Iowa Hawkeyes are in Wisconsin to take on the 9-0 Badgers on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the still unbeaten home side. Iowa earned its sixth win of the year in an epic 55-24 win over then No. 3 Ohio State last weekend to become bowl eligible. I had the Hawkeyes in that one. But that was then and this is now. Iowa definitely looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion. The Hawkeyes picked off JT Barrett four times, including one that was returned for a TD by Amani Hooker on the first offensive play of the game. QB Nathan Stanley was 20 of 31 for 226 yards and five TD’s. Wisconsin was down 10-0 early against Indiana last week, but then poured it on in the second half for another convincing victory. RB Jonathan Taylor had 183 yards and a TD. QB Alex Hornibrook was 13 of 20 for 158 yards, two TD’s and an INT. As good as the Badgers have looked offensively of late, it’s been their defense which has gotten the job done all year, ranking fifth in the country in yards allowed per game with 267.8. Additionally I’ll point out that Iowa is 0-4 ATS in its last four following an ATS win and just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games, while Wisconsin is interestingly 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games played in the month of November. The Badgers are on a mission. The Hawkeyes are contented and eligible. Should be a beatdown from start to finish, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State +15.5 v. Ohio State | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 41 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Michigan State (12:00 EST). The 7-2 Michigan State Spartans are in Ohio State to take on the 7-2 Buckeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Michigan State looks to keep the momentum rolling after its 27-24 home win over Penn State, while Ohio State is reeling after its humbling 55-24 beatdown loss to Iowa State last Saturday. Note that when these teams played last year, it was Ohio State that notched the 17-16 victory. I’m not suggesting that you sprinkle any on the money line, but I do definitely feel that the surging and revenge minded Spartans will keep this one competitive until the final moments. Michigan State looked impressive defensively last week, holding Penn State to 466 total yards, while also collecting three INT’s. QB Brian Lewerke was 33 of 56 for 400 yards, two TD’s and an INT. So far he has 2,207 yards passing and a 16/5 TD/INT ratio. WR Felton Davis III had 181 receiving yards and a TD. Ohio State QB JT Barrett was 18 of 34 for 208 yards, three TD’s and four INT’s in last week’s shocking upset loss. The Buckeyes looked horrible defensively, allowing 487 total yards. I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game, while Ohio State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games following an ATS loss and only 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records. The Spartans have proven that they can play with the best teams in the country, while the pressure is clearly getting to Barrett and company. Grab as many points as you can, play on Michigan State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | NC State -3 v. Boston College | Top | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 72 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina State (12:00 EST). The 6-3 NC State Wolfpack are in Boston College to take on the 5-4 Eagles and in my opinion, this one favors the visitors. I think BC is poised for a letdown here after three straight wins over Louisville, Virginia and Florida State. NC State will look to get back on track now after its 38-31 loss at home to No. 4 Clemson last week. Boston College’s momentum and chemistry will be disrupted because of the team’s “bye week” as well in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that this is a revenge game for NC State after BC won the game 21-14 on the road last year. NC State had a 21-17 halftime lead against Clemson, but the Wolfpack was unable to sustain its momentum for a full four quarters. QB Ryan Finley threw for 339 yards against a tough Tigers’ defense. On the year Finley has 15 TD’s and just three INT’s. WR Kelvin Harmon had eight catches for 155 yards in the loss. The Wolfpack rank 30th in overall offense by averaging 447.3 YPG, while ranked 57th on the defensive side in conceding 387.2. Boston College is ranked 96th in total offense with 370.1 YPG, while ranked 76th in conceding 397.9. QB Anthony Brown was just 6 of 20 for 54 yards and a TD in the win over FSU back on October 27th. In all the Eagles’ held FSU to just 213 total yards while forcing three turnovers. Note though that as good as BC is defensively, it still struggles mightily against the run in allowing an average of 206.2 YPG. I’ll point out as well that NC State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while BC is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after three or more consecutive ATS covers. BC’s strength on offense is its run game, which doesn’t bode well facing the Wolfpack’s 31st ranked run defense. I like NC State to continue its road success (has already beaten FSU and Pittsburgh on the road.) Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-17 | Temple v. Cincinnati +2.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -100 | 107 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Cincinnati (7:00 EST). The 4-5 Temple Owls are in Cincinnati to take on the 3-6 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Bearcats will need to run the table to reach the six win plateau, but they kept the dream alive in last week’s 17-16 win over Tulane. Temple also enters off a victory over Navy, but I think it will have a letdown here. Last week Temple QB Frank Nutile was 22 of 30 for 289 yards, four TD’s and a pick. WR Adonis Jennings had 127 yards and two TD’s (was just the first time this season that he’s reached over 100 yards though.) Bearcats RB Mike Boone had just 20 yards on six carries last week, but he also had the go-ahead TD. Gerrid Doaks was also a standout with 149 yards rushing on 17 carries. I’ll point out as well that Temple is just 1-3 ATS In its last four as a road fav of three points or less, while Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records. I like the Bearcats at home here. Both teams face an uphill battle to reach six wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be discounted in this particular matchup. Play on Cincinnati. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-17 | Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -17.5 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 83 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Appalachian State (7:30 EST). The 0-8 Georgia Southern Eagles are limping towards the finish line, while the 5-4 Appalachian State Mountaineers are on the cusp of eligiblity. The Eagles most recently fell 21-17 at home to Georgia State on Saturday. The Mountaineers though won’t want to leave anything to chance today after dropping two straight, as they’ll look to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Appalachian State most recently lost a 52-45 shootout against Louisiana Monroe on the road last weekend. And if recent history is any precedence, then Appalachian State has to be liking it chances today because when these team’s played last year, it was the Mountaineers which came away with the convincing 34-10 victory. Georgia Southern is terrible, ranked 122nd in the country in scoring with just 17.6 PPG, while ranked 124th on the defensive end by conceding 38.4. QB Shai Werts has 650 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s this year. Wesley Fields leads the way on the ground with 494 yards and three carries. Appalachian State averages 31.3 PPG and allows 25.9. QB Taylor Lamb has 2,096 yards, with 19 TD’s and just four INT’s this season (also has 366 rushing yards and three more major scores.) I’ll point out that Georgia Southern is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game, while Appalachian State is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday night” games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mountaineers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-08-17 | Kent State v. Western Michigan -21.5 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 59 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Western Michigan (7:00 EST). The 2-7 Kent State Golden Flashes are in Western Michigan to take on the 5-4 bowl hopeful Broncos on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side. The Flashes come in off a 44-16 home loss to Bowling Green, while WMU fell flat in a 35-28 home loss to Central Michigan last weekend. Kent State’ QB George Gollas was just 16 of 35 for 140 yards, no TD’s and three INT’s last week. Leading rusher Justin Rankin posted just 39 yards on four carries. The defense was once again a weak point, surrendering 401 total yards, including 227 on the ground. WMU’ QB Reece Goddard was just six of 18 for 42 yards and one INT last week. QB Jon Wassink was injured, so Goddard was pressed into duty. With that awkward game behind him though, I think Goddard will be a lot better this weekend. Goddard will once again be leaning heavily on senior RB Jarvion Franklin, who had 228 yards along with two TD’s in the losing cause. The Broncos’ defense catches a break this week though facing the impotent Kent State offense. I’ll point out as well that Kent State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games against a team with a winning home record, while WMU is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss. The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series and I look for all of these strong trends to continue as the Broncos take advantage of this favorable matchup and punch their ticket to a bowl berth. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-07-17 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -11 | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Buffalo (7:30 EST). The 2-7 Bowling Green Falcons are in Buffalo to take on the 3-6 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Bowling Green comes in off a 44-16 win over lowly Kent State for just its second win of the year last week and looks primed for an immediate letdown here. QB Jarret Doege was 14 of 18 for 178 yards and two TD’s in the victory. Note though that it was the first time that the Green Falcons had allowed under 20 points. The Bulls have three games left to get to six wins and will need to sweep the board. While that’s likely out of the question, they can only take it one game at a time and first up is Bowling Green. Buffalo could easily have a much better record at this point as well, as its lost by a combined 15 points during its current four game slide, including a tough 21-20 setback at Akron in its latest. QB Tyree Jackson had 313 yards, but failed to find the end zone in that one. I’ll point out though that Bowling Green is just 1-6 ATS this year as an underdog and only 3-5 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Buffalo is 3-1 ATS at home already this year and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records. The Green Falcons have given up an average of 35.4 points per game this year, which doesn’t bode well facing his hungry Bulls side in my opinion. For all the reasons listed above, play on Buffalo. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL +2.5 | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 145 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The 7-1 Virginia Tech Hokies are at Miami-Florida to take on the 7-0 Hurricanes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Hokies enter off a 24-3 win over Duke on Saturday, while Miami Florida nudged by UNC 24-19 on the road this past weekend. Note that this is a revenge game for the Hurricanes after they fell 37-16 on the road in VT last year. Hokies’ QB Josh Jackson has 2,032 yards with 17 TD’s and four picks this year. So far Virginia Tech averages 446.5 YPG of offense, while conceding just 284.5, ranked 9th. RB Deshaw McClease had 75 yards and a TD last week. Miami QB Malik Rosier wasn’t at his best last week, going 16 of 38 for 356 yards, three TD’s and one INT. The defense was adequate, holding a desperate UNC team to 428 total yards (note though that the Hurricanes did force four turnovers.) I’ll point out as well that Virginia Tech has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors for a while, going just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 on the road and only 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite, while Miami is still 9-7 ATS in its last 16 at home and interestingly, 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of November. I think the Hokies have a letdown here in this tough atmosphere against the revenge-minded Hurricanes. Play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Ohio State v. Iowa +17 | Top | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 140 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Iowa (12:00 EST). The 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes are in Iowa to take on the 5-3 Hawkeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Ohio State is coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win over former No. 2 Penn State last weekend and I think it is primed for a bit of a mental letdown here after that emotional victory. Iowa comes in off a 17-10 home win over Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are seeking their sixth win of the year and they also play with revenge here after falling 34-24 at Ohio State last season. Ohio State QB JT Barett had three TD’s in the fourth quarter to pull away for the 39-38 win over Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions had a 28-10 lead in the second quarter. Barrett finished 33 of 39 for 326 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. So far the Buckeyes rank third in the nation on offense in posting 571.2 YPG, while the defense ranks 12th in conceding 302.5. Iowa is ranked 104th in the nation on offense with an average of 345.2 YPG, while ranked 48th on defense in conceding 370.1 YPG. Nathan Stanley was just 15 of 27 for 190 yards, one TD and one pick for the Hawkeyes last weekend, but it was the defense which was the difference maker, holding Minnesota to 281 total yards, including only 139 through the air. Stanley overall on the year though has been solid, with 1,698 passing yards with 17 TD’s and just four INT’s. Additionally I’ll point out that Ohio State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while Iowa is already 3-1 ATS this season in front of the home town crowd. Iowa needs one more win for a postseason invite and it comes in off a confidence building victory in which its defense completely domianted. The Hawkeyes also play with revenge this afternoon. The Buckeyes looked poised for a big letdown here though after their come from behind victory last week and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright win, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up to this highly motivated Iowa side. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -1.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 140 h 18 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Nebraska (3:30 EST). 5-3 Northwestern is at 4-4 Nebraska on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side. I base my selections on many different things and this one sets up great from a situational angle. I simply feel that Northwestern is poised for a letdown here after three straight wins, including two straight in OT (39-31 over MSU last time out.) And with a “cream puff” at home against 2-6 Purdue next weekend, the Wildcats still have chances to punch their much sought after sixth win of the season. Nebraska on the other hand is running out of chances, it most recently gutted out the 25-24 win at Purdue last weekend. The Wildcats have struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going just 1-3 ATS in their last four after scoring more than 37 points in an OT victory, while Nebraska has excelled in this spot, going 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 25 points or more in its previous game. From a situational stand point, this is as good as it gets in my opinion. Play on Nebraska. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Syracuse v. Florida State -3.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Florida State (12:20 EST). The 4-4 Syracuse Orange are at Florida State to take on the desperate 2-5 Seminoles, who must now “run the table” if they have any hopes at all at going “bowling” this year. The Seminoles are coming off a humbling 35-3 loss at Boston College, while Syracuse has been off since falling 27-19 to Miami Florida on October 21st. The Orange went to Miami off a massive 27-24 win over Clemson, but had a predictable letdown. Syracuse averages 455 yards per game, while allowing 367.9. QB Eric Dungey was just 13 of 41 for 137 yards and four INT’s in the loss to the ‘Canes. Dungey has been fantastic overall this year, but one has to wonder if he peaked too early. Seminoles’ QB James Blackman was just 11 of 26 for 102 yards and a pick last week. Overall FSU fumbled the ball twice. The offense is averaging just 335.6 YPG, but the defense remains one of the best in the nation, ranked 31st in yards allowed per game with 347.3 per contest, including 26th against the pass with 189.1 per game. Additionally I’ll point out that Syracuse is just 2-3 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records and 0-2 ATS the last two years following its bye week., while Florida State is 4-3 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival and interestingly, 7-1 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of November. I’m banking on Blackman having his best game of the year against this “flat footed” Orange defense and I think Dungey is going to be in for a shock against this talented and hungry Seminoles’ elite defensive unit. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-17 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -10 | Top | 25-30 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR is on Florida Atlantic (6:00 EST). The 6-2 Marshall Thundering Herd are at Florida Atlantic to take on the 5-3 Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Mashall enters off a 41-30 home loss to FIU, while FAU rolled to a 42-28 win over WKU on the road last weekend. Note that this is a revenge game for the Owls, who fell at Marshall 27-21 last season. Combined with the fact that FAU needs one more win to become bowl eligible, there’s no question in my mind that the more motivated side is the Owls. Marshall ranks 64th in the country in scoring with 28.4 PPG, while ranked 15th on the defensive side in conceding only 17.6. The defense looked horrible last weekend though, giving up 401 total yards. QB Chase Litton was 33 of 52 for three TD’s, but also had two INT’s (one which was returned for a TD.) FAU is ranked 15th in scoring with 39.5 PPG, while ranked 69th on the defensive side in conceding 26.8. RB Devin Singletary had 224 yards and four TD’s in last weekend’s big win. QB Jason Driskel hasn’t been asked to do much this season other than the manage the game and hand off the ball, but he does have 899 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s overall. Note that the Owls have now run for an average of 422.7 YPG over their last three outings. Additionally I’ll point out that Marshall has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 against the conference and 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while FAU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a conference game. The Thundering Herd looks ripe for the picking here after last week’s “dud.” Besides, Marshall already has an invite to a bowl. Florida Atlantic on the other hand won’t want to leave anything to chance as it seeks its sixth win of the year. I like the Owls to continue their red hot play and to soundly avenge last year’s loss with a big effort in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-17 | Ball State +22.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Ball State (7:00 EST). The 2-6 Ball State Cardinals will need to win out to reach the six win plateau. Clearly that’s not going to happen, but the visitors will be playing with pride today after getting crushed over the last four games, most recently falling 58-17 to Toledo. EMU isn’t much better, as it’s also winless in conference play. It’s true that the Eagles’ last six losses have come by a TD or less, but it still doesn’t take away from the fact that this is a bad team. The Cardinals once again looked brutal on the defensive side of the ball last weekend, but the good news was that the offense put up its most points in four games, highlighted by 204 yards on the ground. EMU had a 14 point lead last week and still managed to fall in OT. The Eagles are devastated by that setback and I think will be “hung over” to open this game, leaving the back door open just enough for the the Cardinals to sneak in through down the stretch. I’ll point out that Ball State is still 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road, while EMU is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 at home (and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight against teams with losing records.) For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan +7 v. Western Michigan | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 74 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Central Michigan (8:00 EST). The 4-4 Central Michigan Chippewas are at Western Michigan to take on the 5-3 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. CMU has been off since October 21st when it annihilated Ball State 56-9, while WMU also last played on the 21st, holding on for a 20-17 road win over EMU in OT. Note that this is a revenge game for the Chips after they fell 49-10 at home to the Broncos last year. So far the Chips average 391.1 yards of offense per contest, while allowing 387.6. In the victory over the Cardinals QB Shane Morris was 16 of 21 for 199 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. RB Jon Ward had 97 yards and two major scores as well. The Broncos have won four straight, but took a major blow in last week’s win when starting QB Jon Wassink left with a broken collarbone ten minutes into it. Reece Goddard was serviceable in his replacement. WMU had 422 yards of offense, but allowed 459. Without Wassnik, WMU’s offense now revolves around RB Jarvion Franklin, who has 642 yards and eight TD’s this season. I’ll point out though that Central Michigan is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Western Michigan is 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. The road team is 5-0 ATS the last five in this series and clearly CMU will be desperate to string a couple more wins together to try and reach the six-win plateau. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Central Michigan. Good luck…Larry |
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10-31-17 | Miami-OH +10 v. Ohio | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on Miami Ohio (7:30 EST). The 3-5 Miami Redhawks are in Ohio to take on the 6-2 Bobcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Miami Ohio is off a 24-14 home win over Buffalo, while Ohio comes in off a 48-3 crushing of Kent State. Note that when these team’s played last year, it was the Bobcats that pulled off the 17-7 win, making this a revenge-scenario for the Redhawks. Miami Ohio averages 23.6 PPG and concedes 24.5. Last week the defense came up huge against Buffalo, holding it to just 271 yards on 14 first downs. The offense posted 350 yards, with RB Kenny Young running for 125 yards and two TD’s. QB Billy Bahi has played the last three games and has 470 yards and two TD’s. Ohio ranks 13th in scoring at 40.8 PPG, while ranked 62nd in the country on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG. The pass defense is poor though, ranked 90th in the nation in conceding 239 YPG. I’ll point out that Miami Ohio is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a win against a conference rival and 2-1 ATS in its last three coming out of its bye week, while Ohio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories. Ohio has punched its ticket to the postseason, while Miami Ohio needs to immediatley start stringing some wins together if it has any shot at a bowl invitation. I think the Redhawks are clearly the “hungrier” team here today, as this one sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | USC -3 v. Arizona State | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 131 h 19 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on USC (10:45 EST). The 6-2 USC Trojans are at Arizona State to take on the 4-3 Sun Devils and in my opinion, this one favors the visiting side. USC won’t be playing in the College Football Playoff after last week’s 49-14 loss at Note Dame, but the team will be eager to bounce back and take out its frustrations tonight. Trojans’ QB Sam Darnold was 20 of 28 for 229 yards and two TD’s. Darnold has been decent, not great this season by throwing for 2,292 yards, 17 TD’s and ten INT’s. Note that one of his best games of his career came against Arizona State last year, finishing with 352 yards and three TD’s in the 41-20 win last year. The Sun Devils have won two straight, most recently a 30-10 victory at Utah last Saturday. Arizona State’s defense looked pretty good in the win, posting four INT’s. Note though that previous to that the Sun Devils had forced just five turnovers on the season. I’ll point out as well that USC is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 following a SU loss, while Arizona State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 or more points in an OT victory in its previous outing. I like Darnold to have another big game against this suspect Sun Devils’ secondary. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Washington State -2.5 v. Arizona | 37-58 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 55 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (9:30 EST). The 7-1 Washington State Cougars are in Arizona to take on the 5-2 Wildcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Note that when these teams met last year, WSU smashed Arizona 69-7. WSU bounced back from its first loss of the year to post an impressive 28-0 win over Colorado last week. QB Luke Falk was 17 of 34 for 197 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. But as good as Falk looked, it was the Cougars’ defense which really impressed, a unit which is now conceding just 274 yards on average per game. Arizona looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 45-44 double OT win over Cal on the road in its latest outing. RB Zach Green had 130 yards on 20 carries, while QB Khalil Tate had 137 rushing yards and a score, along with 166 passing yards, two TD’s and a pick through the air. Arizona looked horrible defensively though, conceding 473 yards, allowing Cal 31 first downs and to convert on 13 of 19 third down opportunities. I’ll point out as well that Washington State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 following an ATS victory and 7-3 ATS in its last ten road games against a team with a winning home record, while Arizona is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 conference contests. The Wildcats’ offense is in for a stiff test today after last week’s big performance. All signs point a comfortable cover for the Cougars in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Texas Tech +20.5 v. Oklahoma | 27-49 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 35 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST). The 4-3-1 Texas Tech Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS, while the No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners are 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS. The Sooners enter off a 42-35 road win over K-State, while Texas Tech comes in off two straight losses, most recently a 31-13 setback to Iowa State this past weekend (note that Oklahoma also lost to Iowa State 38-31 on Oct. 7th.) Texas Tech QB Nic Shimonek was 31 of 41 for 207 yards, no TD’s and a pick against Iowa State last week. It was a rare “off” game for Shimonek though, who already has 2,341 passing yards, 18 TD’s and only five INT’s this season. Oklahoma gave up 412 yards of offense last week. RB Rodney Anderson had 147 rushing yards and a score, while QB Baker Mayfield had 410 yards, two TD’s and an INT. From a trend based stand point, this one highly favors the visitors, as note that the Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after two or more consecutive SU losses and 11-7 ATS in its last 18 when playing the role of underdog, while Oklahoma is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I think that Shimonek will bounce back here and I look for him to match pace with Mayfield. This is a few too many points, play on Texas Tech. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Tennessee +6 v. Kentucky | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 129 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 9* Oddsmaker’s Error on Tennessee (7:30 EST). The 3-4 Tennessee Volunteers need to string some wins together if they have any shot at making a bowl. The 5-2 Kentucky Wildcats are on the cusp of bowl inclusion, but I think they are going to struggle against this determined Vols side. Tennessee enters off a humbling 45-7 loss to Alabama on the road and it’s now 0-4 in conference play. Kentucky comes in off a 45-7 loss at Mississippi State, dropping it to 2-2 in league play. If recent history is any precedence though, then Tennessee has to be liking its chances for a conference victory today, because when these teams met last year it was the Vols that pulled away for the 49-36 victory. So far Tennessee averages just 19.6 PPG, while conceding 26.9 PPG (ranked fifth against the pass in allowing only 158.1 YPG through the air.) The Vols have been atrocious against the run the last few weeks, but they catch a break here because the Wildcats are a pass first offense. And that falls right into the wheel house of their defensive strength. Kentucky averages 24.6 PPG and allows 24.7. With a home game against a horrible Mississippi team on the horizon, the Wildcats stil have chances to punch their ticket. Both team’s offenses struggled last week, but note that the Vols have performed extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Kentucky is just 7-11 ATS in its last 18 after playing a conference game and only 7-13 ATS in its last 20 against the conference. Tennessee coach Butch Jones’ job is on the line here and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the hungry Volunteers to keep this one close enough down the stretch to comfortably sneak in through the back door once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Vanderbilt +7 v. South Carolina | 27-34 | Push | 0 | 125 h 0 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Vanderbilt (4:00 EST). The 3-4 Vanderbilt Commodores are just 2-5 ATS, while the 5-2 Gamecocks are 4-2-1 ATS thus far. Vanderbilt though is 0-4 in SEC action and I think it’s going to be the much “nungrier” team overall today. Note that Vandy plays with revenge here as well after it fell 13-10 to South Carolina last season. Both teams come in off their repsective bye weeks. Commodores’ QB Kyle Shurmur was 13 of 27 for 174 yards with two TD’s and a pick in his team’s most recent setback to Ole Miss. RB Ralph Webb was a bright spot in that one with 163 yards on 23 attempts along with two major scores of his own. Overall Shurmur has been strong this year with 1,331 passing yards, 14 TD’s and just two INT’s to this point. The Gamecocks’ defense is their strong point, allowing only 19.3 PPG. That defense faces a stiff test today in Shurmur though. South Carolina QB Jake Bentley was 15 of 24 for 129 yards in the win over Tennessee, while AJ Turner had 86 rushing yards on 14 carries. I’ll point out though that Vanderbilt has performed extremly well in this spot for bettors, going 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while South Carolina has struggled in this position by going just 1-3 ATS in its last four against a school with a losing record. I think Vanderbilt’s offense puts the home side to the test this afternoon. Grab as many points as you can, play on Vanderbilt. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina +20.5 | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina (12:00 EST). The 6-0 Miami Hurricanes are in UNC to take on the 1-7 Tar Heels and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hurricanes will come in a tiny bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the humbled Tar Heels to sneak in through down the stretch. Miami already has four conference wins. The Hurricanes have so far been a bit “lucky” perhaps though, as they have just one fumble and three INT’s total on the year. Miami also has 12 takeaways of its own. The Hurricanes’ offense has suffered a big loss though with an injury to top RB Mark Walton last week (had a 7.6 yards per carry average.) UNC’s record is terrible, but the competition it’s played against to this point has been considerable, with all seven losses coming against big-time schools. So far the Heels are allowing an average of 34.6 PPG, while the offense has also struggled. But good news for UNC fans sees the return of starting QB Chazz Surratt, who has been out with injury. Backup Brandon Harris had five INT’s last weekend. I’ll point out as well that Miami is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game, while UNC is 5-1 ATS in its last six in this series. With Surratt coming back, the Tar Heels get a big mental boost this weekend. The Hurricanes on the other hand have a game at home against the 6-1 Hokies next Saturday, making this not only a potential “letdown” spot, but also a “look ahead” spot for the visitors as well. It’s a trap of epic proportions for Miami on Saturday afternoon. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-17 | Florida State -3 v. Boston College | 3-35 | Loss | -107 | 117 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* SItuational Stunner is on Florida State (8:00 EST). The 2-4 Florida State Seminoles are 0-4-2 ATS. The 4-4 Boston College Eagles are 5-3 ATS. FSU needs to immediatley start stringing some wins together if it has any shot at making a 36th straight bowl appearance and in my opinion, this is the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The Seminoles come in off a 31-28 loss at home to Louisville on Saturday. QB James Blackman had 248 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. And if recent history is any precedence, then FSU head coach Jumbo Fisher has to be liking his chances today as his team has won three in a row at Boston College and seven straight in the series overall. BC looks primed for a letdown in my opinion as well. After giving up 83 points in consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Clemson, the Eagles have won three of four, most recently routing Virginia 41-10 on Saturday. Boston College QB Anthony Brown had 275 yards and three TD’s. Previous to that though Brown had completed just 51.2 percent of his passes with seven TD’s. Losing breeds desperation and winning leads to complacency. BC has been held to seven or fewer points in four of its last seven setbacks to Florida State. The Seminoles’ defense is a strength still and I think it’s going to be a difference maker today as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Florida State is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Boston College is 0-7 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records. I think Blackman can match Brown and as stated above, I like FSU to step up this week on the defensive side in this favorable matchup. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-17 | Toledo v. Ball State +26 | Top | 58-17 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Ball State (7:00 EST). Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel this is a few too many points to be giving up in this situation. The 6-1 Toledo Rockets are at Ball State to take on the 2-5 Cardinals. Toledo looks primed for a bit of a letdown here though in my opinion after three straight wins. Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cardinals as they try in vain to reach the six win plateau with just a handful of games remaining and on the heels of four straight losses (after starting the year 2-1.) Toledo QB Logan Woodside had 304 yards and five TD’s in his team’s 48-21 win over Akron. Prevoius to that though he’d posted just one major score over two combined games. RB Terry Swanson also looked good with 123 yards on 20 carries. The Cardinals will be desperate to get off the schneid, as they haven’t scored a TD since late September. Ball State had to transition to senior QB Jack Milas after stater Riley Neal went down with injury in a loss to WKU earlier in the season: “This is a fragile football team right now,” Ball State head coach Mike Neu admitted after the loss. “As much as I hate to admit it, we are struggling to overcome some of the injuries. It’s not for lack of want to, guys are working hard, but we’re doing some things that are uncharacteristic for our football team.” With back-to-back road games though, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets getting caught “looking ahead/past” their lowly opponent today. Additionally I’ll point out that Toledo has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, interestingly going 0-2 ATS in its last two “Thursday night” contests. Ball State has been a bad team for a long time and it’s hard to find any positive ATS stats to back up this play, however take note that it’s 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring ten points or less in its previous contest. I think the home side keeps this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back down the stretch. Play on Ball State. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | SMU v. Cincinnati +8.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 15 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Cincinnati (4:00 EST). The 4-2 SMU Mustangs are in Cincinnati to take on the 2-5 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the home side. I simply think that Cincinnati will be by far the more “desperate” team this afternoon as it looks to break a four-game slide, most recently falling to USF. SMU opened the year 4-1, but looks primed for another letdown here after falling at Houston two weeks ago. SMU is coming off its bye, so I think it’s going to be caught a little “flat footed.” In the loss to the Cougars, QB Ben Hicks was picked off twice. Hicks though has been solid overall with 1,672 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s. Bearcats’ QB Hayden Moore was 16 of 28 for 147 yards and an INT last week. So far Moore has 1,522 yards, ten TD’s and six INT’s. Moore suffered a minor injury and if he can’t go, then Ross Trail will get the call. Whoever gets the call though, I absolutely believe this one favors the home side, as note that SMU is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after playing a conference game, while Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog of 3.5 to ten points. Am I recommending to you to “sprinkle a little” on the money line? I’m not. I simply feel that the overall situation favors the hungry home side and combined with these strong trends, it does indeed make the Bearcats the correct call in this one. Play on Cincinnati. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Indiana +7.5 v. Michigan State | 9-17 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 42 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Indiana (3:30 EST). The 3-3 Indiana Hoosiers are at Michigan State this weekend and for a number of different reasons I believe this one favors the visitors. Michigan State gets caught flat footed and complacent in my opinion after winning three straight, most recently over Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota. Indiana has traded wins with losses of late, most recently falling to Michigan this past weekend. The Hoosiers got blown out by both Ohio State and Penn State, but looked a lot better in last week’s 27-20 OT loss to Michigan. Now 0-3 in Big Ten play, clearly Indiana is going to be desperate to get off the conference schneid. In their 30-27 win over the Golden Gophers last weekend, Spartans’ RB LJ Scott returned and posted a career-high 194 yards and two TD’s. Previous to that monster game though, Scott was averaging a career-low 3.7 YPG this year. I’ll point out as well that Indiana has in fact excelled in this spot for bettors, going 7-5 ATS in its last 12 on the road overall and 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing a conference game, while Michigan State is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU wins. These teams played last year and Michigan State won 24-21 in OT. The Hoosiers are out for revenge and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Syracuse v. Miami-FL -14.5 | 19-27 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* SItuational Stunner is on Miami Florida (3:30 EST). The 4-3 Syracuse Orange are at 5-0 Miami Florida this weekend and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Orange are primed for a classic letdown here after their massive 27-24 upset victory over Clemson last Saturday. The Hurricanes though won’t be taking anything for granted after nudging by Georgia Tech 25-24 last weekend. Syracuse QB Eric Dungey so far has 2,080 yards and a 12/4 TD/INT ratio. The Orange defense caught a big break last weekend though, as Tigers’ starting QB Kelly Bryant left just before the half with a concussion. Hurricanes’ QB Malik Rosier had 297 yards, one TD and no picks last week. Rosier has 1,371 yards and a 12/3 TD/INT. RB Travis Homer had 170 yards last week. Miami’s defense also looked sharp, holding Georgia Tech to just 281 total yards and limiting the Yellow Jackets to just 4 of 13 on third downs. The Hurricane’s pass defense was especially tight, which doesn’t bode well for Dungey this weekend either in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that Syracuse is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Miami is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Troy -9.5 v. Georgia State | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 140 h 7 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Troy (2:00 EST). The 4-2 Troy Trojans are just 1-5 ATS, while Georgia State is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS. Troy looks to get back on track here after its three game win streak came to an end in a 19-8 setback to South Alabama last Wednesday. Georgia State looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its third straight win in a 47-37 victory over Louisiana Monroe. So far the Trojans are ranked 110th in scoring offense by averaging 21.3 PPG, making up for it on the defensive side of the ball in conceding just 18.7 PPG. QB Brandon Silvers has 1,504 yards with two TD’s and three INT’s, plus three more rushing scores. RB Jamarius Henderson has 216 yards and three TD’s. The Panthers are tied for 78th in the country in scoring offense with an average of 28 PPG, while ranked 69th in scoring defense in conceding 26.2. Georgia State QB Conner Manning has 1,261 yards, six TD’s and four INT’s. RB Taz Bateman has 176 yards on 53 carries. I’ll point out though that Troy is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a winning home record, while Georgia State is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. I think Troy’s defense proves to be too much for the Panthers to overcome. The Trojans lead the league in several defensive categories and all signs point to a bounce back this weekend. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +10 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Old Dominion (6:00 EST). The 4-2 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers get ready to face off against the 2-4 ODU Monarchs on Friday night and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the determined home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. WKU comes in off a 45-14 win over Charlotte at home, while Old Dominion enters off a 35-3 loss at Marshall. Note that this is a revenge game for the Monarchs after they fell at WKU 59-24 last season. So far Western Kentucky averages 25.5 PPG, while allowing just 18.2 PPG (ranked 19th). Last week the Hilltoppers posted 627 yards of offense as Mike White would go 33 of 47 for 398 yards passing and five TD’s. Note though that the 49ers did post 248 rushing yards against them. The Monarchs average 17.0 PPG and allow 34.7. Clearly they are overmatched on both sides of the ball, however I think this is a great situation for the home side (also note that the defense looked much better last week, allowing just 371 yards in the game. ) WKU has hit a “vanilla” part of its schedule with FAU at home next week, so it’s not too hard to imagine the Hilltoppers coming in a bit complacent here on the heels of three straight “rocking chair” victories. Additionally I’ll point out that WKU is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road (including 0-2 ATS already this year), while ODU is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 following a conference contest. As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for an outright upset, but the conditions would appear right for a competitive affair. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -3 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Houston (8:00 EST). The 5-1 Memphis Tigers are in Houston to take on the 4-2 Cougars and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Tigers come in off a 30-27 home win over Navy last weekend, while the Cougars will be out to atone for a listless 45-17 road loss to Tulsa. Note that this is also a “revenge” scenario for Houston after it fell 48-44 at home to Memphis last year. Last week the Tigers forced five turnovers in their victory over the Midshipmen and gave up just 334 yards overall. QB Riley Ferguson was 24 of 40 for 279 yards and three TD’s. So far the offense has scored over 30 points in all but one game this year. Houston gave up 416 yards last weekend and allowed the Golden Hurricane to convert on 9 of 17 first downs. However, despite last week’s result, the Cougars have been solid defensively this year. Last week QB Kyle Postma had his worst game of the season, posting 258 passing yards with no TD’s and two INT’s. So far he has 805 passing yards and a poor 4/5 TD/INT ratio. The run game looked good for the Cougars though, accumulating 146 yards, led by Duke Catalon with 72 on the day. From a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the home side: I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 27 points or more in its previous contest, while Houston is 4-2 ATS in ts last six after allowing 44 points or more in its previous game. I think Memphis stumbles on the road here against this determined Houston side, looking to atone for a weak effort last week and out for revenge from a close loss a year ago. Play on Houston. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-17 | Utah v. USC -11 | 27-28 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on USC (8:00 EST). The 4-1 Utah Utes are in USC to take on the 5-1 Trojans and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. The Utes look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after falling 23-20 at home to Stanford last Saturday. Conversely, USC looks poised to build off its 38-10 victory over Oregon State last weekend. Note that this is also a revenge game for the No. 13 Trojans after they fell 31-27 in Utah last season. Utah hurt itself last week with a pair of costly turnovers. So far the Utes average 32 PPG, while conceding 18.4 QB Tyler Huntley has 966 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also rushing for 208 and three more scores on the ground. Zack Moss leads the way on the ground with 344 yards, plus three TD’s. The Trojans are ranked 35th in the country in averaging 35.5 PPG, while ranked 45th in scoring defense by conceding 23.2. QB Sam Darnold already has 1,705 passing yards with 12 TD’s and nine INT’s. RB Ronald Jones III has 529 yards and seven TD’s. WR Deontay Burnett has 527 yards receving and six TD’s. I’ll point out that Utah is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while USC is 4-0 ATS in its last four after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing. Huntley is a question mark for Utah coming into this one and if he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100% capacity. Too many things working against the Utes this weekend. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-17 | Virginia v. North Carolina +3.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF MONTH on North Carolina (3:30 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the 1-5 Tar Heels to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd as they try to secure another victory. Conversely, I think the 4-1 Virginia Cavaliers are primed for a letdown here after they pulled away for a 28-21 win over Duke last weekend. The Cavs have already doubled their win total from last year, so have to be feeling very content at this point. Jordan Ellis leads the team with 408 rushing yards and five TD’s. The Virginia defense looked sharp, giving up 124 passing yards, while also grabbing two INT’s in last week’s victory. QB Kurt Benkert din’t look overly impressive though, he had 182 passing yards, three TD’s and two INT’s. UNC QB Chazz Surratt has 1,167 passing yards and six TD’s so far this season. Surratt had 179 passing yards in last week’s 33-10 loss to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels struggled against the Irish run game and will need to immediately re-group in facing Ellis and company. Virginia plays UNC (1-5) this week, followed by Boston College (2-4) and Pittsburgh (2-4). After the extended winning stretch, the Cavs now hit a very “vanilla” part of their schedule. In my opinion, it’s a perfect storm of factors leading to complacency. Additionally I’ll point out that Virginia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while UNC is interestingly 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October. I think Surratt keeps his team in this one late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-17 | Michigan v. Indiana +6.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -120 | 139 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* ATS UPSET SPECIAL is on Indiana (12:00 EST). While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the under-rated home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Wolverines are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS, while Indiana is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. I think Michigan is primed for a letdown here, still hungover after its 14-10 loss in the Big House to rival Michigan State. It was the first loss of the year for the Wolverines and it was a devastating one in my opinion. Indiana crushed Charleston Southern 27-0 in non-conference action last wekeend and will look to carry that confidence building momentum over into this one. Note that this is a revenge game for the home side as well after it fell 20-10 in Michigan last year. So far Michigan is ranked 82nd in scoring with 27.2 PPG, while ranked seventh on the defensive side in conceding 13.6. Wolverines’ QB Wilton Speight has 581 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s on the year. He’s out for the year though with injury. John O’Korn has 505 yards, one TD and four INT’s in relief. RB Ty Isaac has 365 yards and a TD. So far Indiana is ranked 69th in scoring offense with an average of 29.6 PPG, while ranked 59th in scoring defense in conceding 25.6. QB Peyton Ramsey has 637 yards passing with six scores and two INT’s, along with another 171 yards and two TD’s on the ground. Morgan Ellison leads the rush attack with 358 yards and two TD’s. I’ll point out though that Michigan is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Indiana is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records. I think the conditions are right for a highly competitive affair. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-17 | Florida State -8 v. Duke | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Florida State (12:00 EST). The desperate 1-3 Florida State Seminoles are gunning for a bowl bid at this point of the season, but they’ll need to start stringing together some wins immediately. The Blue Devils are 4-2 and just finished losing to Virginia 28-21 last Saturday. That same day Florida State fell 24-20 at home to Miami-Florida. Seminoles’ QB James Blackman was 17 of 28 passing for 203 yards, two TD’s and two iNT’s. Blackman has been decent since being thrust into the spotlight after starter Deondre Francois went down with injury in Week 1. RB Cam Akers continues to be a bright spot as well, last week he went for 121 yards on 20 carries. The FSU defense looked pretty good against a tough Hurricanes offense, holding them to 337 total yards, including only to 83 on the ground. Duke QB Daniel Jones was 14 of 42 for 124 yards, one TD and two INT’s last week. The run game stalled as well, managing just 131 rushing yards (compared to the 204 YPG average it normally posts.) The Blue Devils looked decent defensively, allowing 310 yards. Duke has now dropped two straight though after starting the year 4-0. Note that FSU is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Duke is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 in the same position. I think Blackman is on the cusp of his first truly big game. The Duke defense has looked great, but so too has the Seminoles. I think the combination of Blackman and Akers will prove to be just too much for the Blue Devils this afternoon. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-17 | Washington State v. California +16 | Top | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 126 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK is on California (10:30 EST). The Washington State Cougars are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, while the Cal Golden Bears are 3-3 SU/ATS. Cal is going to be hungry after losing its third straight, while conversely, the Cougars look primed for a letdown here after winning six straight, most recently a 33-10 victory over Oregon. Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Golden Bears after they fell 56-21 at Washington State last year. So far Washington State is ranked 18th in scoring offense with 39.7 PPG, while ranked 23rd in scoring defense in conceding just 18.5. QB Luke Falk already has 2,000 yards passing with 19 TD’s and only two INT’s. Cal is ranked 100th in the nation in scoring with 24.3 PPG, while ranked 89th in scoring defense in conceding 29.8. QB Ross Bowers has 1,437 yards, nine TD’s and eight INT’s. RB Patrick Laird has 400 yards and four major scores on the ground. I’ll point out that though that Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite, while Cal is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 14.5 to 17 points range. The Cougs have bigger plans than just being “bowl eligible,” but Washington State has now already punched its ticke to a postseason matchup. Cal on the other hand is going to have to earn a couple more conference victories if it has any shot at a bowl invite itself. While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on California. Good luck…Larry |
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10-12-17 | Texas State +14 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Texas State (7:30 EST). Texas State is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS so far this season, while UL Lafayette is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. The Bobcats enter off a 45-27 home loss to Louisiana Monroe, while UL Lafayette looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 21-16 road win over Idaho in its last outing. Note that this is a revenge game for Texas State after it fell 27-3 at home to the Ragin Cajuns last year. Bobcats’ QB Damian WIlliams was 13 of 24 for 158 yards, one TD and no picks last week. The Texas State ground game looked dominant in the loss, posting 181 yards with Anthony D Taylor leading the way with 102 rushing. The defense looked bad, but the unit catches a break this week in facing UL Lafayette. The Ragin Cajuns’ Andre Nunez was 18 of 24 for 213 yards, one TD and one INT last week. WR Ja’Marcus Bradley had five catches for 93 yards. UL Lafayette looked great defensively, but previous to that had struggled. I’m going to be cautious in reading too much into one decent outing. I’ll point out as well that Texas State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses, while UL Lafayette is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after holding an opponent to 17 points or less in its previous contest. I think the Bobcats are the more desperate team as they look to get off the schneid in conference play. Play on Texas State. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama +16.5 v. Troy | Top | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 76 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on South Alabama (8:00 EST). Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I do however think this is a few too many points to be giving up to this hungry 1-4 South Alabama Jaguars team. Conversely, it’s not too hard to imagine the surging 4-1 Troy Trojans “looking past” their lowly opponent tonight. There’s no question that this sets up as a classic “trap” for the home side after its epic 24-21 road win over LSU on September 30th. South Alabama also played on September 30th and fell 34-16 to Louisiana Tech. Note that this is a revenge game for the Jaguars after they fell to the Trojans 28-21 at home last year. USA struggled defensively last week, although it did hold Louisiana Tech to just 2 of 11 on third down. QB Cole Garvin was 21 of 45 for one TD and two INT’s, while RB Xavier Johnson had 89 yards on 12 carries. USA ranks near the bottom on both sides of the ball, but as mentioned off the top, I think it catches a break here facing a Troy team coming off a historic program victory. The Trojans gave up 428 yards on defense, but created four turnovers over LSU. QB Brandon Silvers had just 157 yards passing. On the year Troy is allowing 231 yards per game through the air. I’ll point out as well that Troy is 0-5 ATS in its last five following its bye, while USA is 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive ATS losses. These teams have historically played each other tough and all signs point to another competitive affair. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | California +27.5 v. Washington | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on California (10:45 EST). Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. But with three “cream puffs” on deck, including tonight’s game against Cal, then up next against Arizona State and UCLA respectively, I absolutely believe that the 5-0 Huskies are going to come in a little content and “flat footed” in this one. The Huskies really get into the meat of their schedule after that with games at home against Oregon, and then at Stanford, followed by Utah and Washington State. Not surprisingly, this is a revenge game for the Bears after they were smoked 66-27 by Washington last year. So far Cal averages 27.8 PPG and concedes 28.2. QB Ross Bowers has 1,357 yards, nine TD’s and eight picks on the year. Last week against the Ducks he had 255 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s and suffice it to say, I think he’s going to carry over that momentum here. Washington averages 44.0 PPG, which is ranked tenth. So far it’s allowed just 10.8 PPG, which is ranked fifth overall. QB Jake Browning had 293 passing yards, three TD’s and an INT last week, while Myles Gaskin had 115 yards on the ground and another major score. I’ll point out though that Cal is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog, while Washington is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU wins and interestingly just 3-4 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October. The schedule isn’t in the Bears favor to get a bowl invite this season and while an outright win is almost assuredly out of the question in this particular matchup, I believe that the situation is greatly in their favor and combined with the strong trends listed above, I will indeed grab up all these points in the end! Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | Stanford -3 v. Utah | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 149 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Stanford (10:15 EST). Stanford is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, while Utah is 4-0 SU/ATS. The Cardinal won their second straight conference game, most recently getting the better of Arizona State 34-24 at home on Saturday. The Utes enter off a 30-24 road win over Arizona last week. Utah has won three straight in the series, although they last played in 2014. Last week Stanford held a 501-409 advantage in total offense, but lost the first down battle 22-17. The Cardinal though forced two turnovers. So far Stanford is ranked 24th in the nation in scoring with 39 PPG, while tied for 62nd in scoring defense in allowing just 25.4. QB Keller Chryst has 509 passing yards on the season, four TD’s and two INT’s, while KJ Costello has 376 yards passing, three TD’s and also 40 rushing yards and two more TD’s on the ground. The Utes won last week despite getting outgained 448-341. Utah though forced five turnovers, which wound up being the difference maker in the end. So far Utah is ranked 38th in scoring offense with 35 PPG, while ranked 17th in conceding 17.3. QB Tyler Huntley is 88 of 120 passing for 966 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s on the year. RB Zack Moss has 265 yards and two major scores. I’ll point out though that Stanford is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU wins and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 off a win against a conference rival, while Utah is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference foe. I think the Stanford offense will prove to be the difference here. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | Michigan State +12.5 v. Michigan | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 146 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* BLOWOUT is on Michigan State (7:30 EST). Michigan has looked pretty good so far in going 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS.) In the Wolverines latest outing they got the better of Purdue 28-10 back on September 23rd. The Spartans enter off a 17-10 win over Iowa to open conference play. When these teams played last year, it was Michigan that pulled away for the 32-23 road win. It’s back-to-back gruelling affairs for the 3-1 Spartans, with a game next week at 3-1 Minnesota. Essentially, this two week stretch will determine whether or note MSU will contend for the conference crown or not and while clearly the odds are stacked against it, I think it’s safe to say that we’re going to see its best effort this weekend. MSU jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week and went on to win by three points. QB Brian Lewerke threw two TD passes to Felton Davis III in the first quarter. The Hawkeyes though held the Spartans to just 88 yards on 40 carries. Defensively MSU looked sharp though, holding Iowa to just 226 yards of total offense, including 19 rushing yards. So far the Michigan State offense is averaging 429.5 YPG, while the defense is conceding just 247 YPG (ranked fourth overall thus far.) Last week the Wolverines posted 423 yards of offense, while holding the Boilermakers to just 30 yards rushing on 20 carries. Michigan QB Wilton Speight was injured early and got replaced by John O’Korn, who had 270 yards passing, with one TD and one INT. The Wolverines defense leads the nation right now in conceding just 203.1 YPG. I’ll point out though that the Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five following their bye week, while the Spartans are 3-1 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or less in their previous contest. Ultimately I feel that the Spartans’ defense can keep the team competitive in this one late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +17 | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on North Carolina (12:00 EST). Notre Dame is 4-1 SU/ATS, while UNC is just 1-4 SU/ATS. Am I suggesting to you that you should “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel though that this one sets up as a bit of a natural “letdown” spot for the Irish, while I expect the desperate home side to risk life and limb to try and pull off an upset this afternoon. Ultimately in my opinion, this is a few too many points for Notre Dame to be giving up here. The Irish most recently smashed Miami-Ohio 52-17, while the Tar Heels are off a 33-7 road loss at Georgia Tech. Notre Dame RB Josh Adams had 159 rushing yards last week to go along with two TD’s. QB Brandon Wimbush was just 7 of 18 for 119 yards, but with three TD strikes. Overall the Irish defense was unspectacular, allowing 377 total yards. Notre Dame’s biggest weaknesses are its passing game (just 166.6 YPG thus far) and also in defending the pass (conceding 241.6 YPG.) The Tar Heels have had a difficult opening schedule, falling 47-35 to Louisville, 35-30 to Cal and 27-17 to Duke. UNC’s loss to Georgia Tech last week was its first true “dud” of the campaign. QB Chaz Surratt was 18 of 30 for 141 yards, no TD’s and a pick. The run game produced just 106 yards. Surratt so far has 988 yards, five TD’s and two INT’s on the season. So far the ground attack averages 142.4 YPG. The Tar Heels’ defense has been their weak point, but note that Notre Dame is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory, while UNC is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 following an ATS loss. The Irish are the better overall team, but I expect the Tar Heels’ offense to have its opportunities today against what I think to be a rather suspect Notre Dame defensive unit. As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for the upset, but I will be grabbing all those points! Good luck…Larry |
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10-06-17 | Boise State v. BYU +7 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR is on BYU (10:15 EST). Boise State is 2-2 SU/ATS, while BYU is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. Boise State comes in off its bye after getting hammered 42-23 at home by Virginia. BYU lost 40-24 on the road at Utah State on Saturday. Note that BYU plays with revenge today after falling 28-27 to the Broncos on the road last October 20th. The Broncos were outgained 440-383 by the Cavaliers. So far Boise State is ranked 69th in scoring offense with an average of 29.8 PPG, while tied for 86th in scoring defense in conceding 29 PPG. Broncos’ QB Montell Cozart has just 416 yards passing, six TD’s and one INT. He leads the team in rushing though with 191 yards on the gruond and two scores. QB Brett Rypien had 521 yards and TWO INT’s. BYU had a 21-7 lead a minute into the second quarter, before then collapsing and allowing 33 unanswered points to Utah State. The Cougars actually held a 396-288 edge in total yards and a 20-14 advantage in first downs. Seven turnovers were the difference maker though. So far BYU averages 15.8 PPG, while allowing 26.4. Cougars’ QB Tanner Mangum had 466 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. He splits time between Koy Detmer Jr. and Beau Hoge. Ula Tolautau leads the way on the ground with 188 yards rushing and a TD. I’ll point out though that BYU has excelled in this spot for bettors of late, going 12-7 ATS when playing with six days rest, 8-7 ATS in its last 15 at home and 5-3 ATS in its last eight against the Mountain West, while Boise State has struggled in this position by going just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two or more weeks of rest and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 non-conference contests. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think that the hungry/desperate home side will at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State +3 | Top | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 99 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina State (7:00 EST). Both teams are 4-1 SU/ATS. Louisville comes in off a 55-10 smashing of Murray State, while NC State hung on for a tough 33-25 victory at home over Syracuse last weekend. Note that this is a “revenge” game for the home side tonight after Louisville crushed the Wolfpack 54-13 at home last season. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson was 18 of 26 for 249 yards and three TD’s last week, while also rushing for 100 yards and another major score. Jackson has looked better the last two weeks after a loss to Clemson, but clearly the competition has been “vanilla.” The Cardinals defense looked horrible in the loss to the Tigers, but the unit has looked better the last two weeks against the weaker competition. NC State was in a potential letdown spot against the Orange last Saturday after a big road win at Florida State the previous weekend, but the Wolfpack were clicking early and went into the break with a 26-7 lead. Nyheim Hines had 115 rushing yards and a TD, while Jaylen Samuels had 74 yards and a major score. Pack’ QB Ryan Finley was 20 of 33 for 186 yards and a TD. Like the Cardinals, NC State has so far been very adept on both sides of the ball this season. Note though that Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while NC State is 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with winning records and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories. Louisville has already shown to struggle against better teams and I believe that will once again be the case here. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on NC State. Good luck…Larry |
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10-04-17 | Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern +7 | Top | 43-25 | Loss | -108 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Georgia Southern (8:00 EST). Arkansas State is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, while Georgia Southern is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS. Note that Georgia Southern plays with revenge tonight after Arkansas State pulled off the 27-26 home win with nine seconds left in the game last year. Both teams looked shaky in non-conference action, admittedly Georgia Southern even more than Arkansas State to this point, as it fell 22-12 to FCS New Hampshire back on September 9th. The Red Wolves are led by QB Justice Hansen, who so far has 985 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s. In their 44-21 loss to SMU, Hansen was 16 of 26 for 234 yards and two TD’s. The defense looked horrible in allowing 580 yards, including 314 on the ground. The Eagles defense held the Hoosiers to just 11 of 22 passing for 185 yards on September 23rd, but stumbled against the run in allowing 283 yards on the ground to Indiana. Georgia Southern’s Triple Option offense was finally firing on all cylinders, producing 242 yards on the ground (five fumbles were the difference though.) QB Shai Wets so far has 230 yards and two TD’s passing, along with another 180 yards rushing. I’ll point out though that Georgia Southern is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive ATS losses, while Arkansas State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 44 points or more in its previous contest. I like Georgia Southern to benefit from the extra time off between games and to build off its latest decent effort. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-17 | Troy +19.5 v. LSU | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 130 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Troy (7:00 EST). I feel this is a few too many points to be giving up here. Troy won its third straight with a 22-17 win at home over Akron, but so far the Trojans are 0-4 ATS. LSU comes in off a 35-26 home win over Syracuse last weekend. Troy came out and went 97 yards in nine plays to score the game winning TD in two minutes last weekend. So far Troy is ranked 97th in scoring offense with 24 PPG, while ranked 25th in scoring defense in coneding just 18 points per contest. QB Brandon Silvers has 1,084 passing yards, two TD’s and two picks. RB Jamarius Harris has 198 yards and three major scores. LSU led by 18 twice in the third quarter and had to hold on for dear life down the stretch last Saturday. So far the Tigers are ranked 78th in the nation in scoring with an average of 28.5 PPG, while ranked 27th in conceding 18.3 Tigers’ QB Danny Etling has 723 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s, while RB Darrel Williams has 251 yards and five TD’s thus far. I’ll point out though that Troy is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games against a team wih a winning home record, while LSU is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd. Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on they money line? I am not. I simply feel this is too many points to be giving up to this underrated Troy team. I like the Trojans’ stout defense to keep the visitors competitive in this one late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-17 | Central Michigan v. Boston College -8 | 8-28 | Win | 100 | 125 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Boston College (1:00 EST). CMU is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while BC is 1-3 SU/ATS. The Chips won their first two games of the season, but have since lost two straight, combining for just 31 points in the setbacks. Last week Central Michigan fell 31-14 to Miami Ohio. QB Shan Morris had 195 yards passing with one TD and two INT’s. Jonathan Ward led the way with 56 rushing yards. Over the last two games Ward has averaged just 3.3 YPC. BC won its opener, but has since lost three straight. The Eagles average just 15 PPG thus far. The Eagles lost to No. 2 ranked Clemson 34-7 last weekend, but it’s worthy to note that they were tied at seven after the third quarter. BC forced two turnovers, while also committing two itself. QB Anthony Brown had 133 yards, one INT and no TD’s. RB AJ Dillon has 115 rushing yards over his last two games. I’ll point out though that CMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road, while BC is 7-2-1 ATS in its las ten against the MAC. The Eagles have played a much tougher schedule and I look for the ACC team to assert itself in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-17 | Rice v. Pittsburgh -20 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 124 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:00 EST). Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. The Panthers are going to be the more desperate team as they look to snap a three-game slide, with consecutive setbacks to Penn State, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. The Owls can empathize, as they’ve lost two straight, most recently to Houston and Florida International. Rice QB Sam Glaesmann had an injury last weekend and his status for this one is up in the air as well. If he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100%. Jackson Tyner was 15 of 26 for 131 yards with no TD’s and one INT in the listless 13-7 loss to FIU. So far Rice ranks 118th in averaging just 292 YPG. Panthers’ QB Max Browne splite time with sophomore Ben DiNucci last weekend. Browne was 10 of 15 for 88 yards. Pittsburgh is a young team and the secondary is a weak point, but clearly the unit catches a break this week in facing the Owls anemic offense. The home field advantage factor can’t be overlooked here I don’t think. Neither can the fact that Rice is dealing with an injured starting QB and an offense which so far has done absoluely nothing. I like the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-17 | USC v. Washington State +4.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 122 h 57 m | Show | |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (10:30 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. USC enters off a 30-20 road win over Cal, while Washington State knocked off Oregon State 52-23 at home. Trojans’ QB Sam Darnold has already thrown seven INT’s over his last four games. Darnold was 26 of 38 for 223 yards, two TD’s and a pick in last week’s win. USC though posted just 356 total yards, while allowing Cal to accumulate 416. USC averages 492 yards on offense and concedes 370.2 on defense. Last week Washington State jumped out to a big lead and then never looked back. QB Luke Falk was 36 of 47 for 478 yards and five TD’s with no picks. So far he has 14 TD’s to just one INT. The offense averages over 500 yards per game, while the defense has been fantastic as well, allowing just 263.2 YPG thus far. I’ll point out that USC is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road and just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while Washignton State is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 at home and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play on Washington State. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-17 | BYU -3 v. Utah State | 24-40 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 12 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on BYU (8:00 EST). Enough is enough as far as BYU is concerned, as it’ll be looking to get off the schneid and break a three-game losing streak. BYU most recently is coming off losses to LSU, Utah and Wisconsin. Utah State has alternated wins with losses, most recently crushing San Jose State 61-10 last weekend. BYU lost a bunch of playmakers on offense in the offseason, including QB Taysom Hill and RB Jamaal Williams, but the unit was expected to be better than what it’s shown so far. The Cougars have so far averaged just 9.8 PPG this year: “We have a long ways to go, but we have a lot of season left to play, so we will take advantage of the bye week and try to help ourselves get better so we can win games,” head coach Kalani Sitake assessed. “If we want to be as good as these great teams, we need to play them.” Utah State’s awesome defensive numbers are a bit skewed I think, considering the competition. Last week QB Kent Myers had 271 yards through the air, while the run game finished with 318. Despite that though I’ll point out that BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Mountain West and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previosu outing, while Utah State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests. I like the desperate Cougars to utilize their size at the line. After last week’s big win, I also believe the Aggies come in a bit content and flat-footed. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL -5 v. Duke | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 118 h 22 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Miami Florida (7:00 EST). Last week the Hurricanes thumped Toledo 52-30. The Blue Devils enter off a tough 27-17 road win over UNC and suffice it to say, I think the home side is primed for a letdown here. And if recent history is any precidence, then Miami Florida has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met on the field of play last year, it was the Canes that strolled to a relatively simple 40-21 victory. Miami trailed 16-10 at the half last week, showing some rust in the first after a two week layoff due to Hurricane Irma. The Canes finally got it together in the second half though, scoring the first 28 points out of the break. Hurricanes’ QB Malik Rosier was 26 of 37 for 333 yards, three TD’s and an INT, while Mark Walton rushed for 204 yards and a TD. So far the offense is ranked fifth in the nation in scoring with an average of 46.6 PPG. The defense has held its own, ranked 47th in allowing 21.5 PPG. Duke is 4-0, but now faces its stiffest test to date. The Blue Devils held the Tar Heels to 377 yards. The offense put up 388 yards. QB Daniel Jones was serviceable by going 18 of 34 for 204 yards and a TD. So far the Blue Devils are ranked 23rd in scoring with 40.5 PPG, while ranked 17th in the nation in conceding just 15.2 PPG. I’ll point out though that the Hurricanes have excelled in this spot for bettors, goign 17-5 ATS in their last 22 following a SU victory of 20 points or more, while Duke has struggled against Miami whenever these teams have met, going just 1-7 ATS the last eight in this series. Miami’s offense is much better than UNC’s and I ultimately believe Rosier is going to be a difference maker tonight. In a back and forth affair, I look for the high-powered Hurricanes to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Good luck…Larry |