Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-18-18 | UCLA v. Oregon State +2 | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon State + I love the value here with the Beavers as a home dog against the Bruins. UCLA will be the popular side, but I don't trust the Bruins on the road in this spot. Last time out UCLA lost at home to Colorado 59-68 as a 11-point favorite. The Bruins have only played 3 true road games and the lone win was against a bad Cal team. Oregon State might not look like much on paper, especially given they come in having lost 3 of their last 4, but the Beavers are a vastly improved team. Two of those losses came on the road against Arizona and Arizona State (covered both). The other was a 2-point home loss to Utah. Earlier they beat Colorado at home by 19 and I think their ability to frustrate teams defensively will allow them to pull of the upset here. UCLA is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road vs a team with a winning record. Take Oregon State! |
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01-18-18 | Pepperdine +11 v. Pacific | 78-92 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Pepperdine + I like the value here with the Waves catching double-digits on the road against the Tigers. Needless to say it's been a tough stretch for Pepperdine, as they come in at just 3-15 overall and are 0-8 on the road and 0-6 in conference play. I believe all of that has the Waves way undervalued here against a pretty average Pacific side that is just 9-10 on the year. I also think it's going to be tough for the Tigers to give the Waves the respect they deserve, as they are riding high off 3 straight wins and have 3 big games against top tier teams in the conference on deck. Pacific comes in off a 66-54 win at Portland as a 3.5-point favorite, which is worth noting, as the Tigers are just 3-11 ATS after playing their previous game as a favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 60 points or less. Take Pepperdine! |
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01-18-18 | Rider +2 v. St. Peter's | Top | 88-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Rider + I love the value here with the Broncs catching points against the Peacocks. Rider is 11-7 with a 4-2 mark in conference play, while St. Peter's is just 8-9 overall and 2-4 in league play. Last time out the Broncs were embarrassed in a 64-91 defeat at Iona, but that puts them in a great spot to rebound and cover against the Peacocks. Rider is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 80 or more points and a perfect 6-0 ATS after giving up 90+. The Broncs are also 4-1-1 ATS in their lat 6 road games against a team with strong home record of 60% or better. On top of that, the road team in the series is 26-10-2 over the last 38 meetings, with the Broncs going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to St. Peters's. Take Rider! |
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01-18-18 | Drexel +13.5 v. Towson | 68-90 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Drexel + I like the value here with the Dragons as a big road dog against the Tigers. Last time out Drexel lost at home to Hofstra 86-91. It was a dismal defensive performance by the Dragons, who not only gave up 90 points, but allowed Hofstra to shoot 61% from the field. Drexel has responded well from a poor defensive effort, as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing more than 90 points. The other big key here is how strong the road team has been in this series. The home team is a mere 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. On top of that, Towson is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. Take Drexel! |
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01-17-18 | Fresno State v. San Diego State -7 | 77-73 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Annihilator on San Diego State - I like the value here with the Aztecs at home in Wednesday's late night action against the Bulldogs. This is a big bounce back spot for San Diego State, as they come in off a tough 80-83 loss at Boise State over the weekend. Prior to that the Aztecs had won 3 straight all by double-digits. This is also a big revenge game for the SDSU, as they were upset by Fresno State on their home floor last year. The Bulldogs come in off a win over New Mexico at home, but failed to cover as a big favorite. It continued a trend of Fresno State failing to cash, as they are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games (Aztecs are 7-1 at home) and are 0-4 ATS off a SU win. Take San Diego State! |
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01-17-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne -5.5 v. Western Illinois | Top | 74-75 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on IUPU Ft Wayne - I love the value here with the Mastodons as a short road favorite against the Leathernecks. Western Illinois has started out 0-3 in the Summit and that's really not a surprise, as the Leathernecks were the consensus pick to finish in the basement of the league. All 3 losses have come by 12 or more points, including a 21-point loss at home to Nebraska-Omaha as a 3-point favorite. Ft Wayne is 2-2 and last time they beat Nebraska-Omaha at home, which is a good sign that they can make easy work of Western Illinois and cover this spread on the road. One thing the Mastodons do well is connect from outside. They come in averaging 10 made 3-pointers per game and that's worth noting as the Leathernecks are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Western Illinois is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games when playing a team with a winning record. Take IUPU Ft Wayne! |
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01-17-18 | Tulsa v. Temple -6.5 | 58-59 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Temple - I like the value here with the Owls laying single digits at home against the Golden Hurricane. Both teams come in off heartbreaking losses. Tulsa lost at home by 3-points to No. 5 Wichita State, while Temple fell on a last second shot in OT at home to Memphis. My money here is on the Owls to have the easier time bouncing back from defeat. Tulsa put everything they had into that game against the Shockers and I just don't think they will have a lot left in the tank on the road. Note that their last two road games didn't end well, losing by 23 at Houston and by 9 at Memphis. On the flip side, the Owls likely didn't come out with the right intensity against the Tigers as they were fresh off an upset win at SMU as a 10-point dog. Golden Hurricane are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games overall and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a conference loss. Take Temple! |
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01-16-18 | Ole Miss +10 v. Texas A&M | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Ole Miss + I like the value here with the Rebels as a double-digit dog against the Aggies on Tuesday. Texas A&M was expected to be a Top 10 caliber a team this year and they were well on their way after a 11-1 start. Then things started to go unravel, as players were suspended and injuries piled up. The suspensions aren't a good sign that everyone is all in on the team and I just think this is way too many points for them to be laying. Texas A&M comes in having lost 5 straight. The most recent being a 13-point loss at Tennessee. They have also lost at home to LSU and Florida during this stretch. Ole Miss isn't a top tier team in the SEC, but are more than capable of keeping this game close. In fact, the Rebels are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 as a road dog of 10 or more, while the Aggies are a mere 4-13 ATS in their last 17 as a home favorite. Take Ole Miss! |
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01-16-18 | Georgia v. LSU -4 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'SEC' GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU - I like the value here with the Tigers laying a short number at home against Georgia. LSU has been one of the big surprises early on this season out of the SEC, as not much was expected after last year's 10-21 campaign. Will Wade has done a tremendous job in year one turning the Tigers into a contender and as a result LSU has been a team constantly undervalued by the books. I think that's exactly the case here at home against the Bulldogs. Georgia is a good team, but aren't exactly playing well at the moment. They just lost by 7 at home to South Carolina as a 5-point favorite and the game before that they fell by 12 at Missouri. The road struggles have been a theme all season and a big reason why I got no problem laying this short number on LSU here. The Tigers are 7-3 at home and the Bulldogs are a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Georgia's offense has been struggling and have really relied on the defense to keep them a float. In that loss to the Gamecocks, they scored just 57 points and allowed only 64. That's worth bringing up, as the Bulldogs are a miserable 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after a game where both teams scored fewer than 65 points. Take LSU! |
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01-15-18 | DePaul +10.5 v. Marquette | 52-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on DePaul + I like the value here with the Blue Demons catching double-digits on the road against the Golden Eagles. DePaul is just 1-4 in their last 5, but have been competitive during this stretch outside a blowout loss to Villanova. They only lost by 5 at Xavier, 9 at Georgia, won by 17 at St John's and lost by just 7 to Providence. Marquette is a decent team, but I think they are getting a little too much respect here against the Blue Demons. The Golden Eagles lost by 11 last time out at Butler and could struggle to get up for this game against an inferior opponent. Plus, Marquette has a big break looming, as they won't play again until 1/24. Blue Demons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Golden Eagles are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game. Take DePaul! |
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01-14-18 | Pacers v. Suns +4.5 | 120-97 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Suns + I like the value here with Phoenix catching points at home against the Pacers. Indiana is primed for a letdown here off that huge home win over the Cavs, where they rallied from a 22-point deficit to pull out a 97-95 win. The Suns on the other hand are in a prime bounce back spot after a blowout loss at home to the Rockets on ESPN Friday. Phoenix is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games off a double-digit loss at home. They are also 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a game where they failed to cover the spread and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Pacers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs the Western Conference. Take Phoenix! |
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01-14-18 | Northwestern v. Indiana -2.5 | 46-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Indiana - I like the value here with the Hoosiers at basically a pick'em at home against the Wildcats. We saw Indiana cover in a very similar spot last time out, defeating Penn State 74-70 as a 1.5-point home favorite. The Hoosiers are now 8-3 at home on the season and I think they should be a much bigger favorite here. Big reason they aren't is the fact that Northwestern comes in off a 23-point win at home over Minnesota as a mere 4-point favorite. This is also a Wildcats team a lot was expected of coming into the season, so the books will be quick to overvalue them off a performance like that. The Wildcats are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 off a SU win and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Indiana! |
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01-13-18 | Pistons +1 v. Bulls | 105-107 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pistons + I like the value here with the Pistons at basically a pick'em on the road against the Bulls. Chicago had a nice run, but have come back to reality here of late. The Bulls are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 and 2-4 ATS in their last 6. Detroit continues to be undervalued due to the injury to Reggie Jackson, but come in having covered 3 straight. The most recent being a 114-80 blowout win at Brooklyn as a mere 2-point favorite. I look for the Pistons to build off that impressive showing here and secure a comfortable road win over their division rivals. Take Chicago! |
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01-13-18 | Missouri v. Arkansas -4.5 | 63-65 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Prime Time HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas - I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a short home favorite against the Tigers. Last time out Arkansas was upset on their home court by LSU, as the Tigers embarrassed the Razorbacks by 21 points. That was Arkansas first home loss of the season and even with that lopsided defeat the Razorbacks are still outscoring teams on their home floor by nearly 20 ppg. Any time a team gets embarrassed the way Arkansas was in their last game, they almost always respond with one of their best efforts in their next game, especially at home. They also make a great team to back, as you often get them at a discount off the blowout loss. Missouri is a good team and playing better than expected without Porter Jr, but are just 4-3 on the road and I just don't see them matching the intensity of the Razorbacks in this one. Take Arkansas! |
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01-13-18 | Hofstra -3.5 v. Drexel | 91-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Hofstra - I like the value here the Pride as a short road favorite against the Dragons. Hofstra comes in off a 76-73 win at Towson as a 5-point dog. Their previous road game they won 71-70 at Northeastern as a 5.5-point dog. The Pride are now 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team with a winning home record. On the flip side of this Drexel is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and are a dismal 1-10 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or better. Take Hofstra! |
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01-13-18 | Towson +3 v. William & Mary | Top | 99-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Towson + I like the value here with the Tigers catching points on the road against the Tribe. I also think the books are tipping their hand in this one. William & Mary, who are only laying 3-points despite the fact that they come in having won 5 straight and are a perfect 7-0 at home. The Tigers have a history of stepping up their game against top level teams on the road. Towson is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when matched up against top level teams who are outscoring opponents on averaging by 8 or more points/game. The road team is also a solid 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take Towson! |
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01-13-18 | Baylor v. Iowa State +2.5 | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Iowa State + I like the value here with the Cyclones catching points at home against the Bears. Not a lot was expected of this Iowa State team after all they lost from last year's team, but they have been better than expected, despite the results not going their way. Last time out they went on the road and gave Kansas a massive scare before eventually losing 78-83. This is a team that has one of the biggest home court advantages in the country and Hilton should be rocking this afternoon. Baylor also hasn't been playing all that great in league play, as they are just 1-3 in the Big 12. They have lost both road games, including a 24-point loss at Texas Tech. Cyclones are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after 2 straight games where they scored 75 points or more, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on Saturday and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Iowa State! |
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01-13-18 | TCU v. Oklahoma -6 | 97-102 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Oklahoma/TCU NO BRAINER on Oklahoma - I like the value here with the Sooners in Saturday's Big 12 showdown against TCU. Oklahoma has come out of nowhere to be a force behind freshman sensation Trae Young. These two teams already played once and the Sooners knocked off the Horned Frogs at TCU. Oklahoma took control of that game late after trailing early. I expect them to dominate from the start here at home, where they are a perfect 8-0 on the season, outscoring opponents by more than 21 ppg. This is also a tough spot for TCU. The Horned Frogs have found life a lot harder in conference play, as they are just 1-3 in the Big 12. Last time out they suffered a crushing double-overtime loss at Texas. I just don't think they will have enough gas in the tank to keep this one close. Take Oklahoma! |
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01-12-18 | Warriors v. Bucks +6.5 | 108-94 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bucks + I think we are getting great value here with Milwaukee as decently priced home dog against the Warriors on Friday. Golden State is a huge public team and the squares will be backing them big tonight with this being a nationally televised game on ESPN. That has this line a lot higher than it should be, especially with Steph Curry not expected to play for the Warriors. No disrespect to the Bucks, but I also think this is a game Golden State will have trouble matching the intensity of their opponents. The Warriors simply have two monster games on deck. They are at Toronto tomorrow, who is one of the hottest teams in the league and then have their much anticipated game at Cleveland on Monday. Milwaukee on the other hand is going to treat this as close to a playoff game as you will see in the regular season. Bucks have been a good team to back when they take a step up in competition. They are 8-2-1ATS in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Milwaukee! |
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01-12-18 | Columbia +10.5 v. Princeton | 56-72 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Ivy League NO BRAINER Columbia + I like the value here with the Lions catching double-digits on the road against the Tigers. Columbia comes in with a miserable 3-10 record, but have won each of their last two games and are catching Princeton off a crushing 70-76 loss at Penn in their Ivy League opener. I look for the Lions to keep this one close, as they have in their last several trips to Princeton. Last year Columbia lost by just 2-points on the road agains the Tigers as a 14-point dog and are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Princeton. It's also worth noting the Tigers are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss and a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games after playing 3 or more straight road games. Lions are 32-11 ATS in their last 43 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. Take Columbia! |
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01-12-18 | Quinnipiac +12.5 v. Rider | 60-78 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Quinnipiac + I like the value here with the Bobcats catching a big number against the Broncs. Quinnipiac comes in having failed to cover 3 straight and last time they played on the road they lost by 26 to St. Peter's. On the flip side of this, Rider has won and covered 3 straight. There's little doubt these recent results are playing into this big number here with the Bobcats. The Broncs are just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins and a mere 15-29 in their last 44 off 3 straight conference wins. Quinnipiac on the other hand has been great in this spot, going 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against at team with a winning home record. We also find a great system in play on the Bobcats. Road teams off a home win as a favorite where they didn't cover the spread are 44-16 (73%) ATS when playing on Friday over the last 5 seasons. Take Quinnipiac! |
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01-12-18 | St. Peter's +3 v. Canisius | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on St. Peter's I love the value here with the Peacocks catching points on the road against the Golden Griffins. St. Peter's has owned this series of late, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings, including their last trip to Canisius, as well as their meeting in the MAAC Tournament. Going back even further the Peacocks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Golden Griffins. St. Peter's is also a team that has consistently played well on the road against quality opponents, as they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. They are also working on a 35-16 ATS run in their last 51 conference games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 when coming off a game where they covered the spread. Not only did the Peacocks cover in their last game, they absolutely destroyed Quinnipiac at home 84-58. That has them in a very profitable situation over the last 5 seasons. Road underdogs off a win by 20 or more at least 15 games into the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS if the game is between two average teams with a +/- 3.5 ppg differential. Take St. Peter's! |
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01-11-18 | San Diego +1.5 v. Pacific | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *WCC* GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego + I like the value here with the Toreros at basically a pick'em on the road against the Tigers. San Diego comes in at 12-4, but are fresh off a 63-70 loss at St Mary's, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I look for the Toreros to bounce back in a big way here against a Pacific team that isn't very good. The Tigers are just 7-10 overall and are a mere 2-6 in their last 8. More than anything, Pacific should not be favored here against San Diego. You won't find me complaining. The Toreros are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games with an impressive 13-2 ATS mark in their last 15 as a road underdog. Pacific won last time out, which is also a plus, as the Tigers are a mere 2-12 in their last 14 off a win and 1-9 ATS when that win was at home. Take San Diego! |
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01-11-18 | Drexel +4 v. Delaware | 66-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Drexel + I like the value here with the Dragons catching points on the road against the Blue Hens. Drexel is simply undervalued because their record doesn't stack up with Delaware, but I view these two teams as one in the same. If anything, I would argue the Blue Hens are the lesser of the two teams. Either way, the play here is with the Dragons, who I'm confident will win this game outright. Delaware is not a good home team. They are just 4-4 on their home floor, where they are getting outscored on the season. The Blue Hens are also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games when they come into a game having won 5 or 6 of their last 7. Also a great spot to back the Dragons off their blowout loss to William & Mary, as they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 off a loss by 20 or more points. Take Drexel! |
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01-11-18 | Hofstra +5.5 v. Towson | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Small Conf ATS NO-BRAINER on Hofstra + I like the value here with the Pride catching points on the road agains the Tigers. Towson has the better overall record, but I don't think there's much that separates these two teams. Both are 2-2 in league play and if anything the Pride have played the tougher schedule to this point. My numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play for me on Hofstra. Note that the Pride are an impressive 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning record and 14-3 in their last 17 as a road dog, including a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in their last 7 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Hofstra! |
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01-11-18 | Manhattan +5 v. Fairfield | Top | 59-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *MAAC* GAME OF THE MONTH on Manhattan + I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Stags. Manhattan has already beat Fairfield once this season. The Jaspers held the Stags to just 35% from the field, while they connected on 59% of their shots. There's simply no reason that Manhattan should be this big of a dog here. In fact, my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. Fairfield is only 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games following 3 or more consecutive road games and a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a loss. Jaspers on the other hand are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning home record. We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Stags. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are a mere 16-43 (27%) ATS since 1997. Take Manhattan! |
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01-11-18 | Celtics v. 76ers +2 | 114-103 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Sixers + I like the value here with the 76ers in Thursday's contest against the Celtics in London. Boston is the better team, but with this game being played overseas, I think it's all about motivation. The Celtics own the best record in the east with a 3-game lead over the Raptors and 5.5-game lead over the Cavs. This is a game they can afford to lose. I just don't think they will be 100% invested in this contest, while I expect Philadelphia to come out looking to make a statement, as this is one of those 'measuring stick' games, where they see how they stack up against one of the elite teams. It's also a big revenge game for the 76ers, who have already lost twice to Boston, though they are competitive in each game. Philadelphia has been rolling of late and are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 when they come in having covered the number in 3 or more games. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after 2 or more consecutive wins and 24-9 in their last 33 when playing a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the 76ers! |
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01-10-18 | Temple v. SMU -9.5 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB 'Late Night' BAILOUT BLOWOUT on SMU - This is likely going to seem like a big number to back SMU at home with against Temple. The Owls got off to a decent start, racking up non-conference wins over the likes of South Carolina, Wisconsin and St Joseph's. However, they come in at just 7-8 overall and have lost 5 straight. The most recent being a 21-point loss at UCF as a mere 5-point dog. I actually think there's some value here with SMU, who is a completely different team at home than on the road. The Mustangs lost their last two, fallowing 70-73 at Tulane as a 7.5-point favorite and 56-76 at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point dog. That should have SMU 100% locked in for this game and I look for them to lay in on the Owls. The Mustangs are 11-0 at home, where they are outscoring their opponents by 23.5 ppg, as they are shooting 50.1% from the field and holding their opponents to just 36.8% from the field at home. Mustangs are also 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 home games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take SMU! |
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01-10-18 | Wyoming v. New Mexico -2 | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB 'Situational' ATS ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico - I like the value here with the Lobos laying a short number at home against the Cowboys. All we basically need here is for New Mexico to win the game outright. The Lobos should have no problem doing just that, as they are 7-3 at home, outscoring their opponents by 17.5 ppg. Wyoming on the other hand is just 3-4 on the road. Last time out the Lobos crushed laid it on San Jose State, beating the Spartans 80-47 as a 10-point favorite. New Mexico has responded well off a blowout win, as they are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 off a victory by 30 or more points. We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Cowboys. Teams off a conference home win (Wyoming) going up against a team that won by 30+ in a conference game are 25-57 (30%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New Mexico! |
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01-10-18 | Magic +11 v. Bucks | 103-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NBA 'Magic/Bucks' VEGAS INSIDER on Magic + I like the value here with Orlando catching double-digits on the road Wednesday at Milwaukee. The public wants nothing to do with this Magic team right now. Orlando is a mere 1-14 SU in their last 15 and a pathetic 3-14 ATS in their last 17. Not to mention they are playing on no rest after a game last night in Dallas, which they lost 99-114 as a 7.5-point dog. The books had no choice but to inflate this line on the Bucks and I just can't pass up the value here, especially given that Milwaukee hasn't been playing all that great of late and are in a major lookahead spot with a big game at home against the defending champs (Warriors) on deck this Friday. I think the Bucks go through the motions here and do just enough to get the win. Milwaukee is just 4-10-3 in their last 17 games against a team from the east and 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Bucks are also just 17-40 in their last 57 when laying double-digits. Take Orlando! |
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01-09-18 | Wisconsin +3 v. Nebraska | 59-63 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Wisconsin + I like the value here with the Badgers catching points on the road against the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is getting a lot of respect for keeping it closer than expected last time out against Purdue, despite losing the game by 12-points. That was simply a bad line by the books, as they continue to overvalue the Boilermakers. The Cornhuskers have now covered the spread in 6 straight games where a line has been posted and I believe we are seeing this line inflated as a result. There's no arguing that this isn't the same caliber a Badgers team as previous seasons, but it's not a bottom feeder either. The loss at Rutgers in their last game looks bad on paper, but that's a much improved Scarlet Knights team and I don't think Wisconsin went into that game with the right mindset. That won't be the problem here, as I expect a big time effort and outright win by the Badgers tonight. Take Wisconsin! |
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01-09-18 | Blazers +8.5 v. Thunder | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Blazers + I like the value we are getting here with Portland as a near double-digit dog against the Thunder. The public won't want anything to do with the Blazers in this one, as star point guard Damian Lillard is out with a calf injury. Most will just assume Portland has no chance of keeping close without Lillard. What they will overlook is how his absence takes away some of the focus and motivation for OKC, who were already going to have a tough time getting up for this game with tomorrow's big showdown at Minnesota on ESPN. Don't be surprised if the Thunder just go through the motions here and end up finding themselves sin a much closer game than expected. Portland has won 2 straight, both at home, which is important to note, as they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after 2 or more home wins under head coach Stotts. Blazers are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games with a total of 200 to 209.5, while the Thunder are a mere 5-17 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Portland! |
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01-08-18 | Cavs +1 v. Wolves | 99-127 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs I like the value here with Cleveland as a road dog against the Wolves on Monday. No question that Minnesota has been playing much better of late, but I think the Cavs are about to go off here now that Isaiah Thomas is healthy an in the starting lineup. Thomas gives Cleveland another prolific scorer who can take over games when James isn't on the floor, which should allow him to rest a little more and be even that much moor effective when he does play. In the first two games with Thomas, Cleveland has scored 127 and 131 points, while shooting over 50% from the field in both games. I just think the Cavs have too much fire-power for the Timberwolves, who have to be a bit fatigued here playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Cleveland! |
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01-07-18 | Hawks v. Lakers -3 | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lakers - I like the value here with Los Angeles as a short home favorite agains the Hawks on Sunday. It's been a dreadful run here for the Lakers, but a big reason for the struggles was some key guys being out with injuries. While they may be without Larry Nance (questionable), they are pretty much at full strength and I expect a huge effort here from the Lakers. Atlanta is the ideal team for LA to get back on track against. The Hawks are arguably the least talented team in the league and have gone a miserable 3-17 on the road this season, where they are losing by an average of 6.6 ppg. Last time out they managed to score just 89 points in a blowout loss to the Blazers and I don't see things getting any better on this west coast trip. Take Los Angeles! |
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01-07-18 | Quinnipiac +8 v. St. Peter's | 58-84 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situationa ATS NO BRAINER on Quinnipiac + I like the value here with the Bobcats catching a big number on the road against the Peacocks. Quinnipiac had started out 2-0 in league play before they went ice cold in a 74-82 loss at home to Canisius on Friday. The Bobcats shot just 35.1% from the field and had 15 turnovers, while only forcing 5. The fact that they only lost by 8 is pretty impressive. I think it has them undervalued here and wouldn't be shocked if Quinnipiac won this game outright. St Peter's is just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after going over the total in 2 straight games, while the Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games when listed as a dog of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Quinnipiac! |
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01-07-18 | Fairfield +7.5 v. Iona | Top | 65-84 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Fairfield + I like the value here with the Stags catching a big number on the road against the Gaels. I just don't see a whole lot that separates these two teams. Iona is simply getting too much respect here playing at home and the fact that the Stags are coming off an ugly 77-96 loss at Rider. The Gaels are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home conference games. Iona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 following a SU win and are just 1-5 ATS in their lat 6 games played on Sunday. Stags are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 90 or more points in their last game and 23-10 ATS in their last 33 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Take Fairfield! |
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01-06-18 | Long Beach State +6.5 v. Cal-Irvine | 73-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Long Beach State + I like the value here with the 49ers catching points on the road against the Anteaters. These two teams have played a similar strength of schedule, yet Long Beach State is sitting at 7-10 and UC-Irvine is just 5-12. The 49ers are also coming into this game having won 2 straight. The most recent an upset 89-81 win over Hawaii. The Anteaters have just 1 win in their last 8 games and simply should not be this big of a favorite against any team right now. Even if they find a way to win this game, chances are it's by fewer than 7 points. Take Long Beach State! |
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01-06-18 | UC Riverside +12 v. UC-Santa Barbara | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Riverside + I like the value here with the Highlanders catching double-digits on the road against the Gauchos. While Santa Barbara is the more talented team, Riverside played the tougher non-conference schedule and are simply way undervalued coming into league play. We saw that first hand in their last game, as the Highlanders lost by a final of 65-68 as a 7.5-point underdog. Exact opposite for the Gauchos, who were a 4.5-point favorite over Cal Poly and lost outright. Take UC Riverside! |
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01-06-18 | Dartmouth +11 v. Harvard | Top | 51-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'Ivy League' GAME OF THE MONTH on Dartmouth + I love the value here with the Big Green catching double-digits here against the Crimson. Dartmouth has gone a miserable 1-6 in road games so far this season, but that's playing into this line. Their losses on the road have actually come by fewer than 10 ppg. Harvard is also just 5-9 on the season and while they are 3-1 at home, their wins at home have come by just around 4 ppg. The Big Green have historically been a good team to back when they come in having not exactly played well. Dartmouth is 12-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having won just 1 or 2 of their last 7 games. They are also a dominant 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after a SU loss. It's also worth pointing out that the Big Green have covered 5 of their last 7 trips to Harvard and the road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 overall. Take Dartmouth! |
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01-05-18 | St. Peter's +7 v. Iona | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on St. Peter's I like the value here with the Peacocks as a decently priced road dog against the Gaels. St. Peter's comes in off an impressive 77-64 home win over Monmouth as a 2-point dog, while Iona enters off a 78-85 loss at Canisius as a 1-point favorite. The Peacocks are the much better defensive team, as they come in allowing just 67.2 ppg, while the Gaels are allowing 77.2 ppg. That's going to make it difficult on Iona just to win, let along win here by near double-digits. Gaels are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games after playing 2 straight as a road favorite, while the Peacocks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win by 10 or more points. Take St. Peter's! |
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01-05-18 | Wolves +4.5 v. Celtics | 84-91 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wolves + I like the value here with Minnesota as a small road dog against the Celtics on Friday. The Timberwolves come in off a 97-98 loss at Brooklyn, but have been playing some of they best basketball here of late. Minnesota is 7-2 over their last 9 and are going to be motivated here off that upset loss to the Nets. As for the Celtics, they have won 4 straight and are fresh off a 102-88 win over the Cavs. That game against Cleveland was one they were looking forward to in a big way and I think they have a hard time showing up with that same intensity here against the Timberwolves. Look for Minnesota to want it more tonight. T-Wolves head coach Tom Thibodeau has got his team to thrive in this spot, as he's 38-19 ATS in the last 57 road games he's coached on Friday night. Celtics on the other hand are a mere 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing 2 straight at home under Brad Stevens. Take Minnesota! |
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01-05-18 | Fairfield +6.5 v. Rider | Top | 77-96 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Fairfield + I like the value here with the Stags catching points on the road against the Broncs. Fairfield is coming off a crushing 58-61 loss at Manhattan. The Stags couldn't have played much worse and still almost won the game. Fairfield shot just 35% from the field, while Manhattan shot 49%. I expect a much better showing here offensively from the Stags against a Broncs defense that has allowed 76+ in each of their first two conference games. Fairfield has covered 14 of the last 17 meetings in the series, including 3 of the last 4. They are also a perfect 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings, including a 2-0 SU mark in their last 2 at Rider. The Broncs are also just 6-19 ATS in their last 25 home games after a road game where both teams scored 75+ and just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games after 3 or more straight games on the road. Take Fairfield! |
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01-04-18 | Santa Clara +4.5 v. Loyola Marymount | 65-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Santa Clara + I like the value here with the Broncos as a short road dog against the Lions. Santa Clara was embarrassed in their last game, losing 101-52 at Gonzaga. No team likes to get beat like that and my money is on the Broncos coming out extremely motivated and not only covering the spread but beating Loyola Marymount outright. The Lions come in having lost 4 straight and simply shouldn't be this big a favorite against the Broncos in this spot. Loyola is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after playing 2 straight road games, while the Broncos are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after a game with 9 or less assists. Take Santa Clara! |
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01-04-18 | Western Carolina +5 v. Chattanooga | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Western Carolina + I like the value here with the Catamounts catching a decent number here on the road against the Mocs. These two teams come in with similar records, but Western Carolina has played the much tougher schedule and my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. The Mocs are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 conference games and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games after scoring 65 or fewer points in 2 straight games. We also have a great system in play backing a fade of Chattanooga. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UT-CHATTANOOGA) - poor defensive team (45-47.5%) against a horrible defensive team (47.5% or worse), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO's) are 5-25 (17%) ATS since 1997. Take Western Carolina! |
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01-03-18 | UC Riverside +8 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *Big West* GAME OF THE MONTH on Riverside + I love the value here with the Highlanders as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Titans. In the last 8 meetings in the series UC-Riverside has won 5 times and all 3 losses have come by fewer than the spread listed here. In fact, the Highlanders are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 meetings at UC Fullerton, as the road team is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings overall. In last year's meeting at the Titans Riverside was a 7.5-point dog and won outright 71-63. I see no reason why not to expect a close game here and wouldn't be shocked at all if the Highlanders won this game outright. Take UC Riverside! |
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01-02-18 | Delaware +10.5 v. College of Charleston | 78-93 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER on Delaware + I like the value here with the Blue Hens catching double-digits on the road against Charleston. Delaware comes in having won 4 straight and last time out won outright at UNC-Wilmington as a underdog. Charleston is simply overvalued here playing at home and coming in having won 9 of their last 10. Note that we have a lot total here of 129, which only adds more value to the points. Charleston is also a mere 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games with a total of 129.5 or less and just 18-34 ATS in their last 52 home games when they come in having won 4 of their last 5. Take Delaware! |
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01-02-18 | William & Mary +3 v. James Madison | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on William & Mary + I like the value here with the Tribe catching points on the road against James Madison. William & Mary comes in a t8-4 and are 1-0 in conference play, while the Dukes are just 4-10 on the season and lost at home in their conference opener to Northeastern. Last time out the Tribe beat Hofstra 90-87 behind great 3-point shooting and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they combined for 155 or more points and 6-0 ATS last 7 after a game where they shot 50% or better from behind the 3-point line. We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Dukes. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 after a game where they allowed 80 or more points and playing a team that has allowed 80+ in at least 2 straight games are a mere 18-44 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take William & Mary! |
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01-01-18 | Quinnipiac +5.5 v. Siena | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Quinnipiac + I like the value here with the Bobcats catching points on the road against the Saints. Quinnipiac comes in off an impressive 78-76 win at home over Monmouth as a 6.5-point dog and have now covered 4 straight games where a line has been posted. Siena on the other hand comes in off a road loss at Marist as a 3-point favorite and are now just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 lined games. The Saints are also just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and this puts them in a great fade spot, as they are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a contest having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Siena is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs a team with a losing record, while the Bobcats are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after covering last time out. Take Quinnipiac! |
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12-31-17 | Iona -1.5 v. Canisius | 78-85 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Iona - I like the value here with the Gaels laying a short number on the road against the Golden Griffins. Iona comes in having won 6 of their last 8 with the only two losses coming on the road against St. John's and Rhode Island as double-digit dogs. They are simply the better team and should be laying more than this against one of the bottom feeders of the MAAC. Iona has gone an impressive 19-8 in their last 27 conference road games, while the Golden Griffins are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games when coming off 3 or more wins in a row. We also have a strong system in play backing a fade of Canisius. Home underdogs with just two returning starters from last year, who are coming off a close home win by 3-points or less are just 61-109 (36%) ATS dating all the way back to 1997. Take Iona! |
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12-31-17 | Rider +1 v. Niagara | 99-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rider + I like the value here with the Broncs as at basically a pick'em on the road against the Purple Eagles. Rider comes in off a heartbreaking 76-77 loss at Canisius, but that was a tough spot playing on 7 days rest and off that huge upset win on the road over Penn State. I expect the Broncs to rebound here with a comfortable win over Niagara. While neither of these teams play much defense, the Purple Eagles have been atrocious on that side of the ball. Niagara is allowing 88 ppg, while allowing opponents to shoot 48% from the field and 40% from behind the 3-point line. Last time out they gave up 98 points to Iona and the Gaels only shot 39.5% from the field. Broncs are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog, while the Purple Eagles are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 at home after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more points and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after playing their previous game as a home dog. Take Rider! |
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12-31-17 | Monmouth -2 v. St. Peter's | 64-77 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Monmouth - I like the value here with the Hawks laying a short number on the road against the Peacocks. This line really says it all, as Monmouth is favored, yet they come in at 4-9, while St. Peter's is 6-6. Not only have the Hawks played the much tougher schedule, but they have had some tough breaks in close games. Out of their 9 losses, only 2 have come by more than 11 points and those two were against Virginia and Kentucky. Last time out they lost a heartbreaker at Quinnipiac 76-78 in their conference opener and that's only going to have them more motivated to get a win here. Note that St. Peter's is just 26-48 ATS in their last 74 games when listed as a home dog and a mere 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games vs teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. Take Monmouth! |
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12-30-17 | Eastern Illinois +3.5 v. Austin Peay | 54-70 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Eastern Illinois + I like the value here with the Panthers catching points against the Governors. While Austin Peay has the better overall record, both teams have losing records and I just don't see a lot that separates these teams. The big key here is the history of this series and the struggles of the home team. The road team has gone an impressive 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings in the series and the underdog has covered 11 of the last 12. Take Eastern Illinois! |
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12-30-17 | Fairfield +3 v. Manhattan | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Fairfield + I really like the value here with the Stags as an underdog against Manhattan. Fairfield was the consensus favorite to win the MAAC this season, as they returned 4 starters, including a legit conference of the year candidate in senior guard Tyler Nelson. While the Stags have started out just 6-6, the schedule has been tough, as they have faced off against the likes of Purdue and Houston and had just 5 home games. All that experience playing away from home will only help them here. Manhattan is just 5-7, despite playing a much softer schedule than Fairfield. That was with the Jaspers starting the year out 2-0. They have won just 3 times in their last 7 games and are simply outclassed here. Note that last year Fairfield dominated both meetings, winning 78-49 at home and 97-79 at Manhattan (3-point dog in that one as well). The Stags are also 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games after playing 2 straight as a home favorite and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Take Fairfield! |
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12-30-17 | Eastern Kentucky +8 v. Tennessee Tech | 69-77 | Push | 0 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Eastern Kentucky + I like the value here with the Colonels as a big road dog against the Eagles. Eastern Kentucky has started out just 6-8, but have played a tough schedule with true road games against the likes of Ole Miss, Western Kentucky, Oregon State, Northern Kentucky, Marshall and Jacksonville State. They were double-digit dogs in each of those games and are 6-2 against the rest of their schedule. Tennessee Tech is a quality team, but are simply getting too much respect here. Not a big surprise as the Eagles have been overvalued quite a bit of late. In their last 6 games Tennessee Tech is 0-5-1 ATS. It's also worth noting that the Colonels returned 4 starters from last year's team, which swept the season season series against the Eagles, which included a 79-66 win at Tennessee Tech as a 4-point dog. Take Eastern Kentucky! |
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12-30-17 | Towson +4 v. College of Charleston | 62-73 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Towson + I like the value here with the Tigers catching what I feel is too many pints against the Cougars. Towson is simply undervalued here off back-to-back road losses to Pittsburgh and Oakland, while Charleston is overvalued coming in having won 7 of their last 8. This is a big time revenge game for the Tigers, who were knocked out of last year's CAA Tournament by the Cougars. These two teams have played a very similar strength of schedule to this point. Defensively both teams have played well, but the edge here goes to Towson on the offensive side of the ball. The Tigers are averaging 75.5 ppg vs teams that allow 74.2 ppg, while the Cougars are scoring just 69.5 ppg vs teams that allow 74 ppg. Charleston covered last time out and that's a good sign to go against them, as the Cougars are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a cover. Tigers are 10-4-2 ATS last 16 games overall and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Towson! |
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12-30-17 | Drexel +5.5 v. Elon | Top | 75-90 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *CAA* GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel + I like the value here with the Dragons catching a decent number here on the road against the Phoenix. Drexel comes in at just 6-7, but I've liked what I've seen from this team in non-conference play. They beat Houston 84-80 on a neutral court as a 14-point dog and won at LaSalle as a 12-point dog. They also lost by just 3-points in a true road game against Temple as a 16-point dog. Elon has started out 8-5, but most have their success has come against a soft schedule. The Phoenix did pull off an upset in their last game against Indiana State, but are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. This is also Elon's first home game after playing 4 straight on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games after playing 3 or more consecutive road games. It's also worth noting that the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Dragons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Elon. Take Drexel! |
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12-29-17 | Hawks +11 v. Raptors | 98-111 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Hawks + I like the value here with Atlanta catching double-digits against the Raptors on Friday. Toronto has hit a bit of a rough patch, as they have dropped 2 straight, including a loss at Dallas as a 5.5-point favorite. The Hawks have won their last two and have been a covering machine of late. Atlanta has covered 3 straight and 11 of their last 14. It's also worth pointing that the Hawks have been a great team to back away from home against high-scoring teams like the Raptors. Atlanta is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams that are scoring 110 or more points/game. We also have a strong system in play based on the Raptors 112-78 win at Atlanta the last time these two teams played. Underdogs that are revenging a home loss of 10 or more, who are coming off an upset win as a dog are 82-44 (65%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Atlanta! |
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12-29-17 | Rider +1.5 v. Canisius | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *MAAC* GAME OF THE MONTH on Rider + I love the value here with the Broncs as a short road dog against the Golden Griffins. Rider has been a pleasant surprise early on and come in off an impressive 71-70 win at Penn State as a 15-point dog. This is also a team that won at George Washington as a 5.5-point dog and only lost by 4 on the road against Providence as a 14-point dog. Canisius' strength of schedule doesn't even come close to comparing to the Broncs. The biggest dog the Golden Griffins have been all season is a 9.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just don't see Canisius being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Rider is averaging 82 ppg and scoring roughly 10 ppg more than what their opponents allow. The Griffins average just 70.8 ppg and are scoring less than what their opponents allow. I think Canisius is getting some respect here with this line because they come in off a 14-point win at Robert Morris, but the Griffins are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. Take Rider! |
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12-28-17 | San Francisco +5 v. San Diego | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on San Francisco + I like the value here with the Dons catching points against the Toreros tonight. San Francisco returned just about everyone from last year's 20-win team and could push into the Top 3 of the WCC this season. San Diego also brings a lot back from last year, but they went just 13-18 and still have a ton of ground to make up to catch the top teams in this conference. I think we are getting value here because of the Toreros hot start, as they posted a 9-3 record in non-confernce, while the Dons went just 8-5. However, I've been a lot more impressed with San Francisco, who has played the tougher schedule. Last time out the Dons showed just how good they can be with a 66-64 upset win over Nevada as a 12.5-point dog and that Nevada team is a legit NCAA Tournament team. They also lost by just 18 against an elite Arizona State team on the road. I'll take the points here, but I fully expect the Dons to win this game outright. Take San Francisco! |
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12-28-17 | SIU-Edwardsville +7 v. Austin Peay | 58-78 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Edwardsville + I like the value here with the Cougars catching big number against the Governors in Thursday's college hoops action. These two teams were both picked to finish middle of the pack in the Ohio Valley and so far there's not a lot that has separated these two teams early on. SIU-Edwardsville is 4-7, while Austin Peay is 5-7 and both teams have played roughly the same strength of schedule to this point. I believe we are getting value here with the Cougars based on how these two teams performed against the spread in non-conference. Edwardsville went a miserable 1-8 ATS in their 9 lined games, while Austin Peay posted a 6-2 ATS mark in their 8 line games. History is definitely on the Cougars side in this one, as the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the underdog has gone 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take SIU-Edwardsville! |
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12-28-17 | St. Peter's +2.5 v. Fairfield | 61-70 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St. Peter's + I like the value here with the Peacocks at basically a pick'em on the road against the Stags. This line is begging for you to take Fairfield, who many had pegged as the top team coming into the season in the MAAC, but the Stags haven't been all that impressive early on. Fairfield went just 5-6 in non-conference play and are just 3-6 over their last 9 games, which includes a 84-92 loss to Jacksonville as a 9-point favorite. St. Peter's went 6-5 carrying over some of that momentum that saw them close out last year on a 11-1 run in route to winning the CIT postseason title. The Peacocks have won 2 straight and 5 of 7 overall. I think we saw a glimpse of the potential of this team when they went on the road early and only lost by 9 as a 18-point dog to Northwester. Peacocks have been an excellent team to back away from home against quality opponents, as they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs a team with a winning home record. They are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games. Take St. Peter's! |
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12-27-17 | Mavs v. Pacers -6 | 98-94 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pacers - I like the value here with Indiana laying what I feel is a short number at home against the Mavericks. The Pacers simply didn't have it last night in Detroit, as they got annihilated 107-83. The good news for Indiana is the lopsided score allowed them to limit their starters minutes, as not a single one of the five starters played more than 26 minutes. That leaves little doubt in my mind that we are going to get a big time effort here from the Pacers at home. Dallas on the other hand comes in off an impressive 98-93 home win over the Raptors as a 6-point dog. I just think it's asking a lot of this team to bounce back from that huge victory with another big effort on the road playing on no rest. Keep in mind the Mavericks haven't won back-to-back games since Thanksgiving and are a miserable 2-14 on the road this season. Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs a bad team like Dallas, who has won fewer than 40% of their games and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Take Indiana! |
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12-27-17 | Florida Gulf Coast v. Rhode Island -11.5 | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rhode Island - I got no problem laying the big number here with the Rams at home against Florida Gulf Coast. Rhode Island is one of the better teams that no one knows about. They brought back 4 seniors, including a legit NBA talent in guard E.C. Matthews. Their only 3 losses have come against the likes of Nevada, Virginia and Alabama and two of those were without Matthews, who missed 6 games before returning for the last two. With him on the floor, the Rams should have little to no problem winning here by 15+ points. The Eagles are just 7-7 and come in having gone just 1-5 in their last 6 games. Last time out they were able to keep it within 10 at Wichita State as a 16.5-point dog and I believe that's created some line value here. Take Rhode Island! |
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12-23-17 | Long Beach State v. Colorado State -7.5 | 66-68 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Colorado State - I like the value we are getting here with the Rams laying single-digits at home against the 49ers. While Colorado State is just 6-6, a big reason for that is their schedule, which has had them go up against the likes of FSU, Colorado, Arkansas and Oregon. The big key here is that all 6 of their losses have either come on a neutral site or in a true road game, as they are a perfect 6-0 at home. Long Beach State comes in at 5-9 and while they too have played a tough schedule, they are simply not on the same level as the Rams. The 49ers have really struggled on the road, where they are 3-9 and getting outscored by 13.7 ppg. Last time out Long Beach State was embarrassed in a 42-point (60-102) loss at Michigan State and that was on Thursday, so they are playing their 2nd big road game in just 3 days in the thin air of Colorado. On top of that, the 49ers are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games off a loss. Take Colorado State! |
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12-22-17 | Texas v. Alabama -3 | 66-50 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Alabama - I like the value here with the Crimson Tide laying a short number against the Longhorns. While not a true home game for Alabama, it's going to certainly feel like it, as this game is being played just a short drive from their campus in Birmingham at Legacy Arena. Both teams are off to a solid 8-3 start, but I've really liked what I have seen from this Crimson Tide team. They can really get after you both inside and out on the offensive side of the ball and that balance has them averaging just under 80 ppg. Texas doesn't punch near the fire-power on offense and I think that with this being on the road the Longhorns are going to struggle to keep pace. Note this is not a spot where Texas has fared well. The Longhorns are just 10-27 in their last 37 neutral court games as a dog of 6-points or less. They are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 away from home after two straight games that went under the total. Take Alabama! |
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12-21-17 | Gonzaga -5 v. San Diego State | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Gonzaga - I like the value here with the Bulldogs as a short road favorite against the Aztecs on Thursday. San Diego State has been a great program for a long-time, but took a big step back last year in the first season without Steve Fisher at the helm. While they are off to a respectable 7-3 start a big reason for that has been the schedule. They do have a win over Georgia on a neutral court, but they also lost by 22 at Arizona State, by 7 on a neutral court to Washington State and most recently a 62-63 loss at home to Cal as a 16.5-point favorite. Gonzaga is loaded once again and have started out 10-2 with their only losses coming against big time powers in Florida and Villanova. While the home court edge might help the Aztecs make this competitive early, I look for the Bulldogs to pull away and win this one comfortably. Take Gonzaga! |
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12-21-17 | Buffalo +12.5 v. Texas A&M | 73-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Buffalo + I like the value here with the Bulls as a double-digit dog against the Aggies. Buffalo comes in with a respectable 7-4 record and has shown well against the two big time opponents they have played. The Bulls lost by just 6-points in a neutral site game against Cincinnati as a 16-point dog and last time out they lost by just 7 as a 10.5-point dog in a true road game at Syracuse. While Texas A&M is off to an impressive 10-1 start and clearly the better team, I think this is a clear letdown spot for the Aggies, who are playing their final non-conference game and have a long 8-day layoff before starting SEC play. Another big factor here is the home court edge isn't as strong this time of year, as you not only have people busy with the holidays, but the majority of the students aren't on campus over Christmas break. I think it's enough to allow the Bulls to keep this a lot closer than expected. Take Buffalo! |
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12-21-17 | Southern Miss +22.5 v. Florida State | 45-98 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Southern Miss + I like the value here with the Golden Eagles as a massive road underdog against the Seminoles on Thursday afternoon. I just don't think we are going to see an all that motivated Florida State team here, as this is their final non-conference matchup before getting 9-days off. You also have to keep in mind that with students off for Christmas break and this not being a big time opponent, they aren't going to have that same home court edge. Southern Miss isn't on the Seminoles level, but do come in having won 4 straight, including an impressive 89-71 win over Troy as a 3-point underdog. They also showed well earlier this season in a true road game at Michigan, losing by just 14 as a 24 points dog. The big thing I like here with the Golden Eagles is they get after it defensively, as they are only giving up 64.9 ppg. Look for a lot closer game than the books are expecting. Take Southern Miss! |
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12-20-17 | Northwestern State v. Utah -23 | 62-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Utah - I like the value here with the Utes at home against the Demons from Northwestern State. Utah is a bit undervalued right now, as they come in off a 12-point loss at BYU and have lost 2 of their last 3 overall. They also are expected to be without Donnie Tillman. Even without Tillman, this team should have no problem winning here by 25+ points over the Demons, who are in a brutal spot here playing on the road with no rest after last night's ugly 68-105 loss at Oklahoma, where the Sooners shot 59% from the field. This is also a team that lost by 46 to both Texas and SMU. Take Utah! |
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12-20-17 | Pacers v. Hawks +4.5 | 105-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Hawks + The betting public is all over the Pacers here as a short road favorite against the Hawks, but I like Atlanta to not only cover but win this game outright. The Hawks come in off an impressive 110-104 win at home over the Heat last time out as a 1.5-point favorite and are now 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games, as they continue to get undervalued by the books. Indiana is a quality team, but have lost 3 of their last 4 and last time out suffered a crushing 111-112 loss at home to the Celtics, where they basically gave the game away. Now they are on the road playing what will be their 3rd game in 4 days in a major letdown spot. Take Atlanta! |
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12-20-17 | Wagner v. Seton Hall -19.5 | 68-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Seton Hall - I don't think the books have set the bar high enough here. Seton Hall is coming in off an upset loss at Rutgers as a 8.5-point favorite and are going to be highly motivated to get back on track. That was just the second loss of the season for the Pirates. The first came in a heartbreaking 74-75 neutral court loss to Rhode Island and they came back in their next game and rolled Vanderbilt 72-59 as a 6.5-point favorite. I don't think it's going to take a lot here for Seton Hall to win by 20+ points, as this is not nearly as good a Wagner team as their 7-2 record would suggest. The Seahawks haven't played a lot of top teams. The one step up game they had was road contest at Missouri, which they lost by 44-points as a similar 19.5-point dog to what we see them at here. I expect a similar outcome here with this one well in hand early. Take Seton Hall! |
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12-19-17 | Cavs -2 v. Bucks | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs - This is simply too good a price to pass up on Cleveland. The Cavs have lost just once in their last 19 games, as they are on ridiculous 18-1 run. With this being basically a pick'em with the Cavs laying less than 3, I think you have to roll the dice with Cleveland. They have already beat the Bucks twice this season, including a 116-97 win in their previous visit to Milwaukee. The Bucks are also not playing great basketball right now. They have lost 3 straight and in their last home game they lost outright 109-115 to the Bulls as a 8.5-point favorite. I think a big key here is that this game is the only one being nationally televised on NBA TV and that should be enough motivation for LeBron and company to get the win. Take Cleveland! |
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12-19-17 | Buffalo +10.5 v. Syracuse | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Buffalo + I like the value here with the Bulls as a double-digit dog against the Orange. While not a huge rivalry, these are two teams from the same state of New York. I think that's a big motivator edge here for Buffalo, who would love nothing more than to upset Syracuse on their home floor. As for the Orange, I don't think they are getting anywhere close to as excited about playing this game and I actually think they could be in for a letdown after their big overtime win on the road over Georgetown on Saturday. Keep in mind this is a Bulls team that is expected to compete for the MAC title. They have a big-time play-maker in CJ Massinburg, who is averaging 20 ppg and 8 rpg. He's not the only scoring threat, as they have 4 active players that are averaging in double-figures. They could also be adding another big weapon in Missouri transfer Wes Clark, who hasn't been eligible to this point because of transfer rules. Either way, I think the Bulls give the Orange a scare here and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo! |
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12-18-17 | Quinnipiac +11.5 v. Drexel | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Quinnipiac + I like the value here with the Bobcats as a decently priced road dog against the Dragons. While Quinnipiac is just 3-7 and Drexel comes in at 5-6, the Bobcats have played the tougher schedule up to this point and I simply don't see as big a game between these two teams as this line would suggest. The Dragons have been hit hard with injuries this year. Only 4 players have played in all 11 games this season and they have 4 guys out tonight. Bobcats have also been great in this spot, going 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. At the same time, the Dragons are a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 off a loss and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games following 3 straight on the road. Take Quinnipiac! |
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12-18-17 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Kansas -31.5 | 64-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas - It's been a rough stretch here for the Jayhawks who followed up back-to-back losses against Washington and Arizona State with a mere 1-point win on the road over Nebraska as a 12-point favorite. It's still not enough to keep me from laying this big number here with Kansas at home against the Mavericks. Winning my more than this spread at home wouldn't be out of the ordinary for the Jayhawks. They have a 38-point win at home over Toledo, 43-point win over Oakland, 43-point win over Texas Southern, 34-point win over South Dakota St and 36-point win over Tennessee State. Nebraskas-Omaha comes in off back-to-back wins, but are not a good team. Earlier this season they lost by 33-points at TCU. With the Jayhawks pissed off with their recent play, I think the Mavericks are in for an absolute beating at Allen Fieldhouse tonight. Take Kansas! |
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12-16-17 | Ohio v. Marshall -2.5 | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Marshall - I like the value here with Marshall as a short home favorite against the Bobcats. The Thundering Herd come in having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. The most recent was an impressive 93-87 win at Toledo as a 5-point dog. As for Ohio, they are just 5-4 overall and have struggled away from home against better competition. Last time they were on the road was at Maryland on 12/7 and they lost by 25. Bobcats are giving up a staggering 85.2 ppg on the road and that's going to be a problem here against Marshall, as they come in averaging 89.3 ppg. Thundering Herd are 25-13 ATS in their last 38 as a favorite, 10-2 in their last 12 after playing a game as a road underdog and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. Take Marshall! |
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12-16-17 | Clemson v. Florida -5 | 71-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida - I like the value here with the Gators laying a short number against Clemson on Saturday. While this is technically a neutral site game, it's going to feel like a home game for Florida, as it's being played in their home state at the BB&T Center. The Gators were able to right the ship after losing 3 straight with a 66-60 win over Cincinnati last time out. I look for this team to carry over that momentum here against the Tigers. Gators are a solid 35-19 ATS in their last 54 games away from home when they come in having failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. Clemson on the other hand is a mere 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Florida! |
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12-16-17 | Northern Iowa +2.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa + I absolutely love the value here with UNI as a dog in Saturday's neutral site showdown against in-state rival ISU. My power rankings show that the Panthers should be the ones favored in this contest. The big reason they aren't is the fact that the Cyclones come in having won 7 straight, but the best wins for ISU are a neutral site game against Boise State and a home win over Iowa. The Cyclones are also way down this year, as they lost a ton from last year's team and are likely headed for a finish near the basement of the loaded Big 12. UNI is an experienced team that has proven itself against some of the big boys early. The Panthers are 8-2 with the two losses coming away from home against the likes of UNC and Villanova. They also have some impressive wins, knocking off the likes of SMU, NC State and UNLV. Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 12 against the Big, while ISU is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the Missouri Vally. Panthers are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on a neutral site and 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 off a win. Take Northern Iowa! |
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12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Celtics - After going on an absolute tear, Boston has come down to earth a little bit here of late, as they are just 2-2 SU in their last 4 and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5. I think it's led to a great price to back the Celtics at home here against the Jazz. Utah has been up and down this season, but are not playing well right now. The Jazz have lost 4 straight with the most recent being a 100-103 loss at Chicago. Prior to that they lost by double-digits to both the Bucks and Rockets. This is now their 3rd straight on the road and while Boston is a legit opponent, I think upcoming games against the Cavs and Rockets are ones they will be more excited for. Celtics have also owned bad road teams at home, going 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record. They are also 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 off a straight up win. Take Boston! |
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12-13-17 | Grand Canyon +11.5 v. Boise State | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Grand Canyon + I like the value here with the Antelopes as a double-digit dog against the Broncos. Most people haven't even heard of Grand Canyon and will just assume they aren't any good, but this is a legit threat to make the NCAA Tournament, as they are considered the team to beat in the WAC. They are off to a strong 7-2 start and are locking down teams on the defensive side of the ball, giving up just 59 ppg (nearly 11 points less per game than what their opponents average). Boise is averaging 78 ppg, but that's come against teams that on average allow 75.7 ppg. I'm not saying the Antelopes will win this game outright, but it's not out of the question. Take Grand Canyon! |
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12-13-17 | Arkansas-Little Rock +11.5 v. Bradley | 46-86 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Ark-Little Rock + I like the value here we are catching with the Trojans as a double-digit dog against the Braves. Arkansas-Little Rock comes in at just 2-7 while Bradley is sitting at 7-2 with a perfect 5-0 record at home. Most will just lay the points here with the Braves, but I think this is going to be a tough spot for them to play well. That's because Bradley hasn't played since 12/3 and this will be just their 3rd game in the last 18 days. It's just not the same practicing as it is playing in real games and I think we see a rusty Braves squad here, especially with the Trojans not being a team to get all that excited to play. Take Arkansas-Little Rock! |
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12-12-17 | Michigan v. Texas -5 | 59-52 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas - I like the value here with the Longhorns laying what I feel is a short number here at home against the Wolverines. Michigan comes in with a respectable 8-3 record, but I haven't been all that impressed with this team. Last time out they got an extremely fortunate win and cover at home against UCLA, as they overcame a 15-point deficit to beat the Bruins 78-69 as a 7-point favorite in overtime. Wolverines have played 2 true road games and neither went well, as they lost by 15 at UNC and by 9 at Ohio State. Texas has started out 6-2 and are a team I think is flying under the radar in 2017. The Longhorns went just 11-22 in the first year under Shaka Smart. They are a vastly improved team and we have already seen evidence of that. Texas' only two losses are neutral site games against Duke and Gonzaga, who are both ranked in the Top 15. Keep in mind they had the Blue Devils on the ropes, as they blew a 16-point lead in an overtime loss. I not only think the Longhorns win here, but I could see this turning into a blowout. Take Texas! |
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12-12-17 | Wizards -3.5 v. Nets | 98-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Wizards - I like the value here with Washington as a short road favorite against the Nets. The Wizards have played better than expected while John Wall has been sidelined and I look for them to have no problem here putting away Brooklyn. One of the reasons Washington has continued to play so well is they are shooting lights out. They finished each of their last two games hitting 50% from the field. While the Wizards are clicking offensively, the Nets are struggling with their shot. Brooklyn only managed 89 points on 41% shooting in their last game against the Heat and have hit 44% or worse from the field in 3 of their last 4 overall. Wizards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100+ points and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a double-digit loss at home and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take Washington! |
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12-12-17 | Charleston Southern -5 v. South Carolina State | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Charleston Southern - I really like the value here with the Bucs as a short road favorite against the Bulldogs. Charleston Southern comes in having won 4 of their last 5, including a road win at Illinois State. South Carolina State is projected to finish near the bottom of the MEAC and are off to a poor 2-9 start with their only wins coming against the likes of Morris College and Brevard College. Last time out they lost to Furman by 29 points. This is simply a much bigger mismatch than the books are suggesting with this line. Take Charleston Southern! |
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12-11-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +7.5 | 85-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bulls + I like the value here with Chicago catching a decent number here at home against the Celtics. The Bulls are a miserable 5-20 on the season and it's no surprise given the rebuild they are undergoing. The thing is, some key injuries kept them from being all that competitive early on. They have got quite a few of those guys back and are starting to form some chemistry. Chicago has won 2 straight and are playing with a ton of confidence. As good as Boston has been playing, it won't be easy for the Celtics to take this Bulls team all that seriously. This also isn't a great spot for Boston, who just played in Detroit last night and will be playing their 3rd straight on the road in a span of just 4 days. Keep in mind that this is a team that gets their opponents best just about every time they take the floor. Wouldn't be shocked if the Bulls took control early and the Celtics found a way to win late. At the same time, I also wouldn't be surprised if Boston lost this game outright. Take Chicago! |
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12-10-17 | Arizona State v. Kansas -11 | 95-85 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas - I like this Arizona State team, but my money is on the Jayhawks to not only win but to win convincingly on Sunday. Kansas started to get a big head after their 7-0 start and simply didn't come to play in their last game, which they lost 65-74 to Washington at the Sprint Center as a 22-point favorite. I believe that loss will have the Jayhawks locked in for this one. The Sun Devils are a perfect 8-0 on the season, but have had a pretty easy schedule and the big key here is that this will be their first true road game of the season. Take Kansas! |
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12-09-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Western Illinois +3.5 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Small Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Western Illinois + I like the value here with the Leathernecks as a home dog against the Panthers. Western Illinois has been in this spot before, as they were just a 2-point home dog to IUPUI and they went onto to win that game outright 90-77. They also beat Eastern Illinois as a 4.5-point home dog. Milwaukee has started out 6-3, but this isn't a good team and are expected to finish near the basement of the Horizon League. Simply not the kind of team that should be laying points on the road against a quality team. The Leathernecks pack quite a punch offensively, as they come in averaging 76.6 ppg (83.2 at home), while shooting 51% from the field (54% at home). The Panthers haven't had a lot of success against teams like this, as they are a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 against a team that's shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Western Illinois! |
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12-09-17 | Lakers +6 v. Hornets | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Lakers + I think the books have made a big error here with Saturday's NBA line on the Lakers and Hornets. Los Angeles shouldn't be getting this many points, as it should be much closer to a pick'em given the circumstances. The Lakers have struggled, but come in off an impressive road win over a good 76ers team and I look for them to build off that with another good showing against Charlotte. Hornets are a perfect team to fade here. Not only are they not playing well, but they are in a terrible scheduling spot after last night's overtime game against the Bulls. All 5 of Charlotte's starters logged big minutes and they are a deep team at the moment, as they got a few key guys banged up. I look for the Hornets to struggle to keep up with the fast pace of the Lakers and wouldn't be shocked if this turned into a blowout. Take Los Angeles! |
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12-09-17 | UCLA v. Michigan -4.5 | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Michigan - I really like the value here with the Wolverines laying a short number at home against the Bruins. UCLA comes in at 7-1 and overvalued in my opinion. They have a couple of close wins over Georgia Tech and Wisconsin, but I don't think those wins are as impressive as people think. The best team they faced was Creighton and they lost by 11. Michigan isn't an elite team, but one that I think will give these Bruins a lot of problems. Big key here is that this will be UCLA's first true road game of the season. Wolverines are a perfect 5-0 at home, where they are outscoring their opponents by 20 ppg. I look for Michigan's defense to be the difference here. Wolverines are allowing just 63.3 ppg against teams that average nearly 77, while the Bruins are allowing 75.1 against teams that average 76. UCLA is also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a cover and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Michigan! |
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12-08-17 | Oklahoma v. USC -1.5 | 85-83 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on USC - I think we are getting the Trojans at a great price here in basically a pick'em against the Sooners. While this game is technically being played on a neutral court at the Staples Center in LA, I expect it to feel like a home game with how close it is to USC's campus. On top of that, I think the Trojans are the far superior team in this matchup. Oklahoma comes in at 6-1 and a lot of people are taking notice of this team because of the play of freshman Trae Young, who leads the nation at 28.7 ppg and is 3rd in assists at 8.7 apg. I just think the Sooners rely too much on Young and it's going to be hard for them to compete with a loaded USC team that is strong top to bottom. Not to mention the Trojans will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after losing their last two. Nothing to be ashamed about with those two defeats, as one was against Texas A&M and the other a true road game at SMU. Trojans bounce back in a big way here. Take USC! |
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12-08-17 | Raptors -6 v. Grizzlies | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Toronto I like the value here with the Raptors laying what I feel is a short number on the road against the Grizzlies. Toronto is a team that I think is flying under the radar right now. The Raptors have won 4 straight and are 10-3 in their last 13, yet no one is talking about them. They have been especially good on offense here of late, scoring 120 or more points in 3 straight games. I just don't see the Grizzlies being able to keep pace. Memphis has scored more than 95 points just once in their last 10 games and are a mere 1-12 over their last 13. The Grizzlies deserve to be a much bigger dog here, even with this game on their home court. Memphis is just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 against the Eastern Conference and a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games off a loss. Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a win more than 10 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Toronto! |
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12-07-17 | Eastern Washington v. San Francisco -7 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on San Fran I like the value here with Dons at home against a struggling Eastern Washington team. The Eagles have lost 4 of 5, with the most recent being a 19-point loss at Seattle. One of the reasons Eastern Washington is hitting a wall here is they have been on the road since they opened the season at home against Walla Walla. Since that game they have played 7 straight on the road, with 5 of those being true road games. San Francisco has won 4 of their last 6 and are fresh off a win over Central Arkansas at home. Unlike the Eagles, the Dons have enjoyed playing the majority of their games at home, as they have had just 1 game on the road. The Dons have been a great bet against bad teams, as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take San Francisco! |
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12-07-17 | Lakers +7.5 v. 76ers | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Lakers + I'll go against the public here and back the Lakers as a decently priced dog here in Thursday's TNT showdown with the 76ers. LA has lost 5 straight, but it's been a brutal stretch where 3 of the 5 were on the road and the two home games were against the likes of the Warriors and Rockets. I think it has the Lakers way undervalued here against Philadelphia. At the same time, the public is fully on board with this 76ers team now and are now way overvalued because of it. These two teams played in LA about a month ago. While the 76ers won that game, it was a mere 6-point win and that was with the Lakers shooting a horrible 38.5% from the field and Philadelphia hitting on 49% of their attempts. I think that we get a big enough effort here from LA to give the 76ers a scare and keep this within the number. Last time out Philadelphia lost 101-115 at home to a bad Suns team and the 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Los Angeles! |
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12-06-17 | Pacific +5.5 v. UC-Davis | Top | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacific + I love the value here with the Tigers as a decently priced dog against the Aggies. Pacific went just 11-22 last year in the first season under head coach Damon Stoudamire. This should be a much improved team in 2017 and they are off to a strong 5-4 start and come in having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall. The Tigers did lose to UC Davis at home in their second game of the season 58-62, which I think is playing into this line here. Pacific was a 4-point favorite in that game and based off that line you would only expect them to be around a 2-3 point dog on the road against the Aggies. I'll take my chances here with the Tigers getting their revenge, plus this is a great spot to fade UC Davis off their big upset win on the road over Washington State, where they won 81-67 as a 7.5-point dog. Tigers are 32-15 ATS in their last 47 when revenging a loss as a home favorite, while the Aggies are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home non-conference games. Take Pacific! |
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12-06-17 | Heat v. Spurs -7.5 | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NBA Sharp Action ATS NO BRAINER on Spurs - I'm backing San Antonio here at home against the Heat on Wednesday, as I look for the Spurs to win here by double-digits. San Antonio has gotten off to a respectable 16-8 start given they haven't played a single game with their best player in Kawhi Leonard. The big key here is the Spurs haven't missed Leonard at all on their home floor, where they are a dominant 11-2 SU and 8-4 ATS on the season. Miami came in with big expectations after their strong finish last year, but are just 11-12 and come in having lost 3 of their last 4. The Heat will also be without one of their best players in Hassan Whiteside. I just don't think Miami is a team that's capable of competing at less than full strength on the road against a team like the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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12-06-17 | Brown v. Providence -20.5 | 72-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Providence - The Friars should have no problem here winning in blowout fashion over Brown at home. Providence comes in at 6-2 with their only two losses coming against a very good Minnesota team at home and a good Rhode Island team on the road. The most recent was that loss to the Rams and I think that will have the Friars not looking past the Bears and coming out with one of their best efforts. Brown simply isn't a good team. They were picked by most experts to finish near the basement of the Ivy League and are off to a 4-4 start with their only wins coming against J&W-Providence, Quinnipiac, Long Island and Bryant. They have ugly losses to to the likes of St Francis-NY, Stony Brook and Central Connecticut State. They also lost at Rhode Island by 24, which is a pretty clear sign of how big a gap we have here from the Friars to the Bears. Take Providence! |
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12-06-17 | Buffalo v. Delaware +3.5 | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Delaware + I like the value here with the Blue Hens as a home dog against the Bulls. Delaware comes in having lost their last 2, but are 4-4 on the season. The Blue Hens have experience with 4 returning starters, while also getting big time contributions from a couple of freshman in Kevin Anderson (12.3 ppg) and Ryan Allen (11.6 ppg). They are 2 of 5 players for Delaware that are averaging in double-figures. Buffalo is a team that a lot of people had picked to win the MAC East and I think it has them a bit overvalued here on the road. The Bulls just lost at home to St Bonaventure by 11 as a 1-point favorite. Buffalo lost their two best players and only returned 4 starters. That lack of experience will make it tough for them to win on the road here against a balanced Blue Hens offensive attack. Take Delaware! |
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12-06-17 | Toledo v. Detroit +4 | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Detroit + I like the value here with the Titans catching points at home against the Rockets. Detroit comes in off back-to-back losses at IUPU-Fort Wayne (82-91) and UCLA (73-106). That most recent 33 point loss to the Bruins has them way undervalued here against a pretty average Toledo team that is expected to finish near the bottom of the MAC standings. Playing at home is a big time advantage for the Titans, who are 2-0 at home this season, but what I really like is this teams ability to score the basketball. Detroit comes in averaging 91.1 ppg on 46% shooting from the field. They will be going up against a Toledo defense that is allowing 82.7 ppg and 53% shooting on the road. I just don't see the Rockets being able to keep pace and will call for the outright win here for the Titans. Take Detroit! |
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12-05-17 | Texas A&M v. Arizona +2 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona + Love the value here with Arizona catching points in Tuesday's game against Texas A&M. While this game is technically being played on a neutral site at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, it's going to feel like a home game for the Wildcats. I believe this line is a direct result of the Wildcats struggles in the Battle 4 Atlantis, where they lost 3 straight to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They have since responded with a 30+ point win over Long Beach State and a outright win on the road against a very good UNLV team. This is a statement game for Arizona and I think they get it done against the Aggies, who are getting a little too much respect here after their 7-0 start. The Wildcats have owned the SEC, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs teams from the SEC. On the flip side of this Texas A&M is a mere 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 vs the Pac-12. Take Arizona! |
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12-05-17 | Montana State v. Central Michigan -2 | 48-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Central Michigan - I like the value here with the Chippewas at basically a pick'em at home against the Bobcats. Central Michigan comes in at 6-1 and have won 5 straight. While the schedule hasn't been all that challenging for the Chippewas, they did show some of their potential in a mere 7-point loss at Michigan as a massive 22.5-point dog. Montana State is 6-3 but their two toughest games this season have come at Louisiana Tech and Fresno State and they lost both by double-digits. The Bobcats are also just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 against a team with a winning record, while the Chippewas are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take Central Michigan! |