Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-13-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -1 | 109-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
3* Wednesday Night NBA SMASH on Thunder -1
This is a really tough spot for the Spurs tonight after an emotional win over the Lakers last night. In fact, the veteran Spurs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. While the Spurs have been playing good basketball, the Lakers are just the fourth winning team they have beaten this season. It's been tough for the veteran Spurs to hang with the youthful Thunder too, as the Thunder are 3-1 in their last 4 games against San Antonio. The Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this matchup. The Thunder are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Take the Thunder. |
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01-13-10 | Pittsburgh v. Connecticut -6 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Year (ESPN 2) on UConn -6
Pitt had UConn's number last season, sweeping the season series, but I expect payback from UConn tonight. Both teams have lost key contributors, but Pitt clearly lost more. UConn will be further motivated tonight by a loss at Georgetown in its last game. UConn led by as many as 19 in the first half in that game and took a 15-point lead to the locker room, but the Hoyas rallied for a 72-69 victory that left Jim Calhoun fuming mad. UConn is a perfect 10-0 at home this season where it is winning by 13.1 ppg. The Huskies are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Expect UConn to roll in this highly motivated spot. |
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01-12-10 | Kentucky v. Florida +3.5 | 89-77 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
3* SEC Game of the Week (ESPN) on Florida +3.5
While Kentucky is undefeated, it has had a number of scares, even against teams like Miami Ohio. What's the explanation? Kentucky is a young team. It has only played one true road game this season and it will not be ready for the environment it is about to step into. Florida has proven that it can play some ball, having already defeated Michigan State, and it will be extremely motivated to knock off the No. 2 team in the country, especially after enduring a loss in its last game. The Gators were once ranked as high as No. 10 this season and they know a win here will help then regain national respect. Kentucky is just 1-8 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Florida. Take the points. |
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01-12-10 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
5* Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Grizzlies -5
Sunday the Clippers came through for us for an easy win over Miami. That win came at home where they have won 6 in a row. Expect a different story on the road tonight where they have lost 4 straight. The Clippers are just 12-27 ATS in their last 39 road games, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies have won 5 straight at home and they will be extremely motivated tonight as they look to bounce back from a 2-point loss at Charlotte. The Clippers have visited Memphis once already this season and the Grizzlies handed them a 15-point loss as a 5.5-point favorite and I expect a similar result tonight. The Grizzlies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Grizz. |
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01-12-10 | Missouri State v. Drake +6 | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Drake +6
Missouri State is getting too much respect here simply because the books know the betting public will jump on the Bears who have the much better record. Drake has been playing some good basketball. It just went to Creighton last week and played the Jays to a 4-point game as a 13-point dog. It then won at S. Illinois by 5 points as a 12.5-point Saturday. Expect Drake ride the momentum of that win to another solid performance tonight. Drake has won by double digits at home each of the last 2 seasons in this matchup so it will not be lacking any confidence tonight. The Bears have been a terrible bet in conference play recently as they are just 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. the Missouri Valley. Plus, they are 1-10 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and Drake is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog. We'll take the points. |
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01-11-10 | Atlanta Hawks +4.5 v. Boston Celtics | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Hawks +4.5
While Boston would like to avenge Friday's loss to the Hawks, I don't think it will have enough left in the tank after playing against the Raptors Sunday. The Celtics are a veteran team, and lacking depth with Marquis Daniels out and Kevin Garnett expected to miss again. In fact, the Celtics are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on zero days rest and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. The Hawks take great joy in facing the team they measure themselves against, and they have already won the season's first two meetings, including an 11-point win in Boston. After getting absolutely destroyed by Orlando Saturday, expect the Hawks to be extremely motivated tonight. In fact, the Hawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Also, plays on road teams, explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half, are 24-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Boston needed 29 points from Rasheed Wallace and a triple double from Rajon Rondo to defeat the Raptors yesterday, and I don't see either of those guys having as strong of a game against a very athletic Atlanta team. We'll take the points. |
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01-11-10 | Villanova v. Louisville -2.5 | 92-84 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Louisville -2.5
Expect Villanova to be emotionally and physically drained after escaping Marquette by the skin of its teeth barely 48 hours ago. Louisville is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and has won the last 3 SU & ATS as its pressure defense has been able to wear down the Wildcats. A big reason for Louisville's success is the Pitino factor. That's why the Cardinals are 42-13-2 ATS in their last 57 games against the Big East, including 18-6 ATS the last 2 seasons and winning by an average of 73.7 to 62.6 in those games. Few teams in the country are able to enforce their will on opponents the way Pitino's Cards do, and that is why they have had so much success. The Cardinals are also an impressive 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Wildcats have already lost at Temple by 10 points in a hostile environment, but with a whiteout slated in Louisville, I expect the level of hostility to be raised here. Take the Cards. |
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01-10-10 | Kansas -5.5 v. Tennessee | 68-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
4* Major Non-Conference Game of the Week (CBS) on Kansas -5.5
Tennessee is not the same team without Tyler Smith and several other key contributors, and Kansas enters this game with renewed focus after getting a major scare from Cornell. These two things should add up to a double digit win for the Jayhawks today. While Tennessee is solid defensively, it's hard to ignore what the Jayhawks have done to good defensive teams in recent year. Kansas is 17-4 ATS versus good defensive teams, holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 78.2 to 63.4. Take Kansas. |
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01-10-10 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Clippers -2 | 84-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Clippers -2
The Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season, going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS their last 5 games with wins over the Celtics, Blazers, and Lakers. I expect no letdown here either as the Clipps have had 3 full days to get geared up for Dwayne Wade and company. The Clippers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and the home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. This Clippers teams is finally getting a taste of winning, and it seems to like what it's tasting. Lay the points. |
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01-09-10 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic -3.5 | 81-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Magic -3.5
This is a letdown spot for the Hawks after a big win over Boston and a bounce spot for the Magic after a poor performance against Washington. Orlando has dropped 4 in a row, and losing has been a rarity for this team over the past few seasons. I expect the Magic to be very hungry tonight against a team they are 4-0 SU & ATS against in the last 4 meetings. Plus, it makes sense to take the favorite in this spot as plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 57-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Magic. |
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01-09-10 | Coll Charleston v. The Citadel -2 | 61-55 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Letdown Game of the Week on The Citadel -2
We'll fade College of Charleston in a huge letdown spot after a big win over UNC. It's going to be impossible for the Cougars to get up for this game the same way while that win will only motivate The Citadel more. The Citadel swept Charleston last season with a pair of impressive wins and have now won 8 of the last 12 at home in this series. Charleston actually matches up better with UNC because it likes to play uptempo basketball. The slow down style of The Cit has given the Cougars fits. In fact, Charleston is 0-6 ATS versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The Citadel is 18-6 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and I'll pound them here. |
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01-09-10 | Duke v. Georgia Tech +7 | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
4* Major ACC Game of the Week (ESPN) on Georgia Tech +7
Duke is getting too much respect here against a quality opponent that will be very hungry after a poor performance against Georgia. Tech brings back more experience than the Blue Devils and it will be further motivated to end a 4-game losing streak against Duke. Tech is on a solid 30-14 ATS run as a home underdog or pick, including 21-8 ATS in that role under coach Hewitt. The Blue Devils are constantly overvalued, especially on Saturday's when they often play in the national spotlight as we they are here. That's why they are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the points. |
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01-08-10 | Washington +4 v. Arizona State | 51-68 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Pac-10 SMASH on Washington +4
Following an embarrassing 11-point home loss to Oregon as an 11-point favorite, expect the Huskies to bounce back in a big way tonight. Washington is 2-0 SU & ATS at Arizona State the last two seasons with a pair of double digit wins and I expect this trend to continue. In fact, the Huskies are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Arizona State and the road team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Huskies are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog while the Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the points. |
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01-08-10 | Utah Jazz v. Memphis Grizzlies -3 | 89-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Super System Side Winner on Grizzlies -3
We just can't ignore the fact that Memphis is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when playing at home against a team it already lost to on the road, winning these games by an average of 10 points. Utah just crushed the Grizzlies Wednesday to end their 4-game winning streak, and you can bet that defeat is not sitting well. Memphis is a solid 10-5 at home this season while the Jazz are just 6-10 on the road, and I'll take Memphis to have its revenge tonight. |
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01-08-10 | Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks -3 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month (ESPN) on Hawks -3
Atlanta gets up for the C's unlike any other team. They already defeated Boston by 11 points in the Garden, and I like them to come through again here against a Celtics squad playing without Kevin Garnett. Boston has dropped 3 of its last 4 road games, needing OT to win at Miami Wednesday, and the Heat aren't as good as the Hawks in my book. Atlanta is 13-4 SU & 12-5 ATS at home this season and I think home court will treat them well again tonight. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Celtics are only 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Atlanta desperately wants to assert itself as just as much of a contender as Orlando, Cleveland, and Boston in the East. They take another step toward doing so tonight. |
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01-07-10 | Michigan +2.5 v. Penn State | 64-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
3* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN 2) on Michigan +2.5
Michigan has underachieved in the early stages of the season, but I like it to build off of its win over Ohio State with a big win over a poor Penn State team tonight. The Nittany Lions have one player, Taylor Battle, and I expect an experienced and more athletic Michigan squad to find a way to hold him in check to get the "W" here. The Wolverines are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings with Penn State and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Nittany Lions just aren't good enough to be trusted in the chalk as they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. We'll side with the Wolverines here. |
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01-05-10 | Iowa v. Illinois -14 | 42-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
3* Big Ten SMASH (Big 10 Network) on Illinois -14
This may seem like a lot of points to be laying, but consider that Iowa is 0-4 when playing away from home this season and losing by 17.2 points on average in those games. Also consider that Illinois is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 20.6 points on average in those games. Illinois has lost 3 of its last 4, including a couple tough ones against Georgia and Gonzaga, and I expect it to avenge these losses in a big way against a team that I believe is easily the worst in the Big Ten. Illinois is scoring 86.0 ppg at home this season while Iowa is only scoring 59.5 points on the road. Iowa just doesn't have enough fire power to keep up tonight. The Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double digit loss at home. Lay the number. |
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01-05-10 | Detroit Pistons +8.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NBA Public Massacre on Pistons +8.5
The public is piling on the Mavs because the Pistons have dropped 9 in a row SU & ATS, but because of that, odds makers have spotted the Pistons a couple extra here. Detroit has not played since Dec. 31 so it has had plenty of time to get ready for this one. While Dallas will be out for revenge after getting slaughtered by the Lakers in its last game, the Mavs just haven't proven that we can lay this kind of chalk on them at home. In fact, the Mavericks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. I expect an extremely well rested and hungry Pistons team to keep this one within the number tonight. |
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01-04-10 | Pittsburgh v. Cincinnati -4 | 74-71 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Game of the Night (ESPN) on Cincy -4
It's going to be tough for Pitt to get up for this one after handing Syracuse its first loss of the season Saturday. The Bearcats have already played a game and won since defeating UConn so they should be the more focused team on their home floor tonight. Plus, the Bearcats will be out for revenge here. Pittsburgh has won 3 straight over Cincy, including an 85-69 rout the last time these teams faced off. Cincy remembers that one well, and now that it is the more experienced team, I expect it to have its revenge. The Bearcats are a perfect 7-0 at home this season and they continue to defend their home court tonight. |
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01-02-10 | San Antonio Spurs -6 v. Washington Wizards | 97-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Night NBA Blowout on Spurs -6
The Wizards are coming apart at the seams. Reports have surfaced that Gilbert Arenas and teammate Javaris Crittenton allegedly drew guns on each other during a locker-room argument over a gambling debt. This team has no chemistry off the court and it is showing up on the court. San Antonio is rolling right now and it has certainly had Washington's number, winning 8 straight over the Wizards with all of those wins coming by at least 7 points. The Spurs are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Southeast. Take the Spurs. |
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01-02-10 | Louisville +7.5 v. Kentucky | 62-71 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Marquee Matchup (CBS) on Louisville +7.5
I know Kentucky will be out to avenge a loss in Louisville last season, and the Wildcats likely get it done, but I expect to see a very tight game this afternoon. Kentucky is being heavily overvalued here because it is 14-0, and the Wildcats are going to see a scrappy intense defense unlike any they have seen this season today. The home team has been constantly overvalued in this series and that's why the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Plus, the Cardinals are 26-8-1 ATS in their last 35 road games, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog. We'll take the points. |
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12-31-09 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -7 | 78-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA on TNT SMASH on Spurs -7
San Antonio is finally running hot, having won 9 of its last 11, with 7 of those wins coming by double digits. Look for the Spurs to post another double digit win tonight against a Heat team that will not have its legs after player a tough one in New Orleans last night. The Spurs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and they have had their way with the NBA Southeast division, carrying a 6-0 ATS run against the division into this one. The Heat are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. the NBA Southwest. As this season goes on, it is becoming more and more evident that Dwayne Wade does not have a good enough supporting cast. I think the Spurs just have too much fire power tonight with Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker. Take the Spurs. |
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12-31-09 | Tennessee +2.5 v. Memphis | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
4* Rivalry Game of the Month (ESPN 2) on Tennessee +2.5
This game is all about revenge for Tennessee, which fell to Memphis by 2 points last season. The Vols have the edge in terms of experience, and now that Coach Cal is with Kentucky, they have the edge in the coaching department. The Vols have had this one circled since last season and they have now had 8 days to prepare. Memphis just played on the 28th so it has just had a few short days to prepare for this hungry and talented Tennessee team. The Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Volunteers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Take Tennessee. |
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12-30-09 | Akron v. Wyoming +2.5 | 85-76 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Under the Radar Cash Cow on Wyoming +2.5
The Cowboys are showing good value in the home dog role today against an Akron team that has only played one other true road game this season. Wyoming has won its last 4 home games, and I expect it to come out strong tonight to wash the taste of an 18-point loss to Northern Iowa out of its mouth. Plus, the Cowboys have not played since 12/23 so they have had plenty of time to scheme for the Zips. Akron is scoring just 59.7 ppg in 4 games away from home this season and I see its lack of explosiveness as problematic against a Wyoming team scoring 81.3 ppg in 9 home contests. The Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less points. They are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Take Wyoming. |
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12-29-09 | Penn State +12 v. Minnesota | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN 2) on Penn State +12
The only quality opponent Minnesota has defeated is Butler. With that in mind, I find the Gophers overvalued in this Big Ten opener with both team's looking to get off to a strong start. The Nittany Lions have been a valuable underdog when you consider that they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in the role. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog in the 7.0-12.5-point range. Taylor Battle is really off to a strong start for the Nittany Lions and I expect him to keep them in the game tonight. He has already gone off for 30-plus against a pair of ACC schools, including a VA Tech team that can really defend. We'll take the points. |
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12-29-09 | New Orleans Hornets v. Houston Rockets -5.5 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NBA SMASH on Rockets -5.5
Expect the Rockets to bounce back strong tonight, after getting embarrassed in Cleveland against, against a Hornets team that is just 2-12 on the road this season. Houston has proven that it will respond after poor outings. In fact, it is 13-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, rebounding to win by an average score of 101.4 to 90.3 in these spots. It is also 11-2 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 99.2 to 90.3. The Rockets have defeated the Hornets by 9 or more points in each of their last 3 home games and I expect this trend to continue. Lay the number. |
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12-29-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -3 | 95-84 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
3* NBA Marquee Matchup on Hawks -3
This is a statement game for the Hawks, to show that they belong in the Eastern Conference discussion, against a Cavs team that embarrassed them in the playoffs last season. With an extra day of rest and preparation time on the Cavs, expect the Hawks, which are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS at home and an awesome 21-8 SU & ATS in all games this season, to take care of business tonight. The Hawks are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days rest and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Atlanta is also 8-1 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 111 to 94.9. When rested, the Hawks have been extremely dangerous, and they will be lacking no motivation tonight. Lay the number. |
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12-28-09 | Denver Nuggets -1 v. Sacramento Kings | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Nuggets -1
Denver has struggled on the road this season and it looks like it will be without Chauncey Billups tonight, but I still like the Nugs to come away with the win. The Kings' Tyreke Evans is listed as doubtful, and if he can't go, it will be an even bigger blow for the Kings as he is their leading scorer, distributor, and steals guy. Regardless, I like the Nuggets in this spot as plays on road favorites after 2 or more consecutive losses, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 45-19 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Kings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog period. Take Denver. |
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12-27-09 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Clippers +7 | 90-92 | Win | 103 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
3* Sunday Night NBA SMASH on Clippers +7
This is a letdown spot for Boston who is coming off a big Christmas Day win over the Magic. It will be impossible for the Celtics to get up for this game the same way. The Clippers return home where they have played their best ball this season and they will be hungry after a bad Christmas loss to Phoenix. This game reminds me a lot of the last time the Celtics visited the Clippers. It was last February and Boston was a 10-point favorite, but ended up losing the game straight up by 2 points. The Clippers don't play again until the 30th so they will leave nothing out on the floor while we should see Boston giving some of its top guys a few extra minutes of rest since it plays again tomorrow. The Celtics are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Clippers. |
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12-26-09 | San Antonio Spurs -2 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Spurs -2
The Bucks are just 4-12 their last 16 games while the Spurs have rattled off wins in 6 of their last 8. Expect a couple day's rest to do this veteran Spurs team some good here as they take care of business on the road tonight. The Spurs are the more talented and the more experienced team, and they should bring a high energy level to this one coming off a loss and with plenty of rest. The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record and the Bucks are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the tough NBA Southwest Division. We'll lay the number. |
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12-26-09 | West Virginia v. Seton Hall +3.5 | 90-84 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Big East SMASH (CBS) on Seton Hall +3.5
Expert a hungry Seton Hall team here as it seeks to pay the Mountaineers back for handing it a lopsided defeat last season. I'm just not ready to trust WVU laying this much road chalk against a motivated opponent, especially when you consider that the Mountaineers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, including 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take Seton Hall. |
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12-25-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Los Angeles Lakers -5 | Top | 102-87 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
5* Christmas Day NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers -5
While the Cavs would love to make a statement with a win here, I just don't see it happening. This will be Cleveland's 4th road games in 6 days with Wednesday's overtime game with Sacramento really taking a toll. The Lakers haven't played since the 22nd so they will have the big edge in terms of fresh legs. The Lakers won both meetings last season by double digits, and I can make a strong argument that they are now better with Ron Artest, while Cleveland seems to have taken a small step back. I won't be surprised if Shaq has a good game as he will be motivated to play his former team, but at the end of the day, the Lakers just have too much fire power with Gasol, Bryant, Bynum, Odom, and Artest. Cleveland had tons of trouble matching up with LA's size defensively last season and we saw the trouble it had again in the playoffs when facing the Magic. Size and length will prevail again here. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. This line is soft. Take LA. |
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12-23-09 | Nebraska v. BYU -6.5 | 66-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on BYU -6.5
BYU is really lighting up the hoop right now and I don't think Nebraska has the offensive fire power to keep pace. In fact, BYU is 8-1 ATS after a game where it made 60% of its shots or better, winning in these spots by an average score of 80.1 to 70.2. I feel this line is a little soft and we'll look to take advantage. Lay the points. |
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12-23-09 | Utah Jazz v. Miami Heat | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
5* Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Heat pk
I'll back a rested Heat team at home that has had Utah's number tonight, especially since the Jazz have played a lot of games in few days. The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Miami. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and I expect them to bounce back here against a Jazz team that is just 5-8 on the road. Take Miami. |
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12-22-09 | Oklahoma City Thunder +10 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 108-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +10
The Thunder are an incredible 10-0 ATS after a game where they did not cover the number this season, bouncing back to win by an average score of 103.7 to 93.7 in these spots. The Thunder will be lacking no motivation tonight after falling to the Lakers 85-101 exactly 1 month ago. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and they are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Los Angeles against the Lakers. Take the points tonight. |
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12-22-09 | California +13 v. Kansas | 69-84 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
3* SMASH (ESPN 2) on Cal +13
Odds makers are giving a little too much respect to the No. 1 team in the land tonight, just as you would expect them to with the public all over the Jayhawks. A big reason why you have to like Cal in this spot is because it takes extremely good care of the rock. In fact, the Golden Bears are a perfect 8-0 ATS under coach Montgomery after 2 straight games with 11 or less turnovers. Cal hasn't played since Dec. 9th so it has had a lot of time to prepare for the Jayhawks. We'll take the points. |
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12-22-09 | Michigan State +8.5 v. Texas | 68-79 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
3* SMASH (ESPN 2) on Michigan State +8.5
The Spartans have had Texas' number, picking up wins against the Horns each of the last 3 seasons. While Texas could finally have its revenge tonight, I can't see this one not being extremely close with the level of experience that Michigan State has and with as well as the Spartans defense. Let's just say that the Spartans have owned the Big 12 Conference over the last few seasons, racking up a 6-0 ATS mark while winning by an average score of 77.8 to 70.2. Michigan State has been chomping at the bit for another opportunity to show the country that it is better than it showed when it lost at UNC. Expect the Spartans to do just that tonight. |
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12-21-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Phoenix Suns -2 | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Suns -2
I'll grab the Suns at home laying just a deuce as they are 10-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 14.1 points in these games. They can really run and gun on their home floor and I expect them to run a tired Cavs team, which just played last night, to death here. Plus, the Suns will be out to avenge a 17-point loss in Cleveland earlier this month. We have a nice system in our favor as well: plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3, an explosive offensive team (>=102 ppg) against a good offensive team (98-102 ppg), after a blowout win by 15 points or more, are 30-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Take the Suns. |
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12-21-09 | South Carolina St +16 v. Iowa | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
3* Monday Night NCAAB SMASH on South Carolina St +16
Iowa is 2-8 ATS in all lined games and 1-5 ATS in all lined home games this season. It is coming off an emotional win over in-state rival Drake and I just don't see the Hawkeyes getting up for this game the same way. Iowa is not an explosive offensive team. It plays half court basketball, and as a result, is only scoring 63.1 ppg this season, which makes the 16 we are catching even more valuable. The Hawkeyes are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. Also, plays against favorites of 10 or more points who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game, playing in the month of December, are 39-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. Iowa is not a high pressure defensive team which looks to covert turnovers into points, which is another factor making these 16 points look pretty good. Take the points. |
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12-19-09 | Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Bobcats -3 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
5* Saturday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats -3
Tough spot for the Jazz playing back-to-back against a Bobcats team that is well rested and has been strong at home all season. The Cats are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season while Utah is just 4-7 SU & ATS on the road. Charlotte is a perfect 2-0 SU & ATS at home against the Jazz the last 2 seasons, winning those games by 7 points on average. Plus, Utah is just 8-18 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 101.2 to 107.5, and just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 back-to-backs. The Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Lastly, the Jazz are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Lay the number. |
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12-19-09 | North Carolina +7 v. Texas | 90-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Major ESPN Game of the Week on North Carolina +7
Texas is laying too many points on a neutral floor. I know this game is still in Texas, but it won't be the same as if the Horns were playing in their home gym. UNC has the athletes and the talent to matchup well with Texas and the Heels will also find themselves more prepared for the intensity of this game having played a much tough schedule to this point. The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the points. |
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12-18-09 | Drexel v. Cal State Northridge -2.5 | 75-63 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Home Court Crusher on CS Northridge -2.5
Drexel is just 1-4 on the road this season and I expect it to struggle playing a long ways away from home against a CS Northridge team that is 3-0 at home on the year. Northridge is coming off back-to-back road losses so it will be extremely pumped to get back on its home floor tonight. Northridge will draw additional motivation from a loss at Drexel last season. It lost by 8 points as a 3-point dog in that game and I expect it to return the favor here. The Dragons are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Matadors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Lay the number. |
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12-18-09 | San Jose State +2 v. Cal Irvine | 69-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Line Mistake of the Week on San Jose State +2
Believe the wrong team is favored here. The Spartans have 1 less win on the season, but they have played a much more challenging schedule. Plus, San Jose State brings back more experience with 4 returning starters. The Spartans are now 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and on a terrific 15-5 ATS run in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams making >=37% of their attempts. Take San Jose State tonight. |
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12-18-09 | Detroit Pistons v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5 | Top | 98-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Thunder -5
Detroit is really banged up with Tayshaun Prince out and Rip Hamilton and Ben Gordon listed as questionable. Even Rodney Stuckey is not at 100% percent. Even if Hamilton and Gordon are able to go, they won't be healthy enough to drop a big night on the Thunder. Detroit is just 3-10 on the road this season and it has lost back-to-back road games by 11 and 8 points. The Thunder have lost 3 in a row so they will be very hungry to get back in the win column tonight. It's not that the Thunder are playing bad, they have just come up against superior teams (Cleveland, Denver, Dallas) and they will be excited to go up against an opponent they believe they are better than tonight. The Thunder have won the last two meetings in this series by 10 and 8 points and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the Pistons. It has also been a money play to take the Thunder after a game where they failed to cover the spread as they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in this role this season, winning by an average score of 103.1 to 93.2 in these games. The Thunder are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder. |
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12-17-09 | New York Knicks +3 v. Chicago Bulls | 89-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
3* Thursday Night NBA SMASH on Knicks +3
The Knicks are playing better ball than the Bulls right now and I feel they are worth a shot catching 3 points here because of it. The Bulls have dropped 6 of 7 and 11 of 13 SU and they are just 1-5-1 ATS & 2-9-2 ATS during those skids. Meanwhile, the Knicks have won 4 of 5, including a pair of nice road wins at Atlanta and New Orleans during this stretch. They are 4-1 ATS in those games and 10-4 ATS their last 14 games. The Knicks beat the Hawks by 7 points on the road back on December 4th while the Bulls were destroyed at Atlanta 83-118 on December 9th. While I know the Bulls are a much better home team at 6-5 at home this season, they are just 3-6-2 ATS in those games and 6-15-2 ATS in all games this season. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Chicago. They are also an impressive 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulls are a terrible 2-11-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the points. |
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12-16-09 | Dallas Mavericks -2 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
3* Wednesday NBA SMASH on Mavs -2
Dallas has been among the best teams in the NBA on the road this season with a 9-4 SU & ATS mark. The Mavs enter this contest having won 4 straight and I expect them to keep rolling. OKC is a solid 6-6 SU & 7-5 ATS at home this season, but the teams it has lost to at home tell the story tonight. Since November 29th, OKC has lost at home to Houston, Boston, and Cleveland - all better teams, while it has defeated Philly and Golde State. I think the Mavs just have a few too many weapons for the Thunder to contend with tonight and that will be the difference. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite while the Thunder are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Plus, the Mavericks are 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 road games in the series. Take Dallas. |
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12-16-09 | Richmond +5 v. South Carolina | 58-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
3* Wednesday NCAAB SMASH on Richmond +5
Richmond is a dangerous dog at a deadly 14-4 ATS in the underdog roll over the last 2 seasons. Richmond is also a very resilient team so I expect it to be extremely focused tonight after a loss in its last game. It also comes as no surprise that it is 19-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Also, Richmond is 8-0 ATS versus very good teams, who are outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons, winning straight up in these spots by an average score of 70.6 to 69.9. The Gamecocks are just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 home games and I think they are getting too much respect tonight. Take the points. |
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12-15-09 | Murray State v. Louisiana Tech -3 | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Louisiana Tech -3
Louisiana Tech won at Murray State by 9 points last season in a game where it was a 9.5-point dog. Now Tech has home court on its side and I expect it to take better advantage of that than Murray State did last season. Tech has been on the road a lot in the early part of the season so it will be happy to see its home floor tonight where it is 2-0 with a pair of blowout wins. The key tonight is how well the Bulldogs have played against good competition since the beginning of last season. In fact, Tech is 16-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record during the span. Tech has a huge size advantage which should win it the battle of the boards and the game. Can't see a smaller Murray State team having an answer for the 6'11 Magnum Rolle. Lay the points. |
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12-15-09 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats -4.5 | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NBA SMASH on Bobcats -4.5
The Knicks have rattled off 4 straight, but I look for their winning streak to end in Charlotte tonight. The Bobcats will be a hungry team off back-to-back losses and they will be very confident in this one against a team they have owned. The Bobcats are 3-1 SU & ATS their L4 and 7-3 SU & ATS their last 10 home games against the Knicks. Charlotte is 8-3 at home this season and the reason it is defending its home court so well is because it is holding its opponents to just 89.8 ppg. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less points, and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. It is also worth noting that the Bobcats are 18-6 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 2 seasons. Lay the number. |
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12-13-09 | Villanova -3 v. Temple | 65-75 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB *BEST BET* on Villanova -3
Nova is the better team. While Temple will likely hang around for a while, Nova will have too much down the stretch not to win and cover this number. While Temple is good defensively, it isn't good enough to keep Nova's much stronger offense in check all game long. This game reminds me a lot of the 2007 game when Nova was a 2.5-point favorite and won by 8 points at Temple. The Cats have covered 4 straight in this matchup and are 10-2 ATS in the last 12. Take Nova. |
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12-12-09 | Phoenix Suns v. Denver Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
5* Saturday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -8.5
The public is on the Suns here and that is right where the books want them. Phoenix is in a tough spot, having just played a hard-fought game against the Magic last night. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are back home where they are 9-1 this season (winning by 13.9 ppg) and with a day's rest in their favor. Fatigue will play a major factor in this one as the Suns are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. This has been a matchup dominated by the home team as the home squad is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. In fact, the Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Denver. Since the beginning of last season, Denver is on a 12-1 ATS run as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning in these spots by 15.6 points on average. We'll take the Nuggets at home tonight. |
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12-12-09 | Siena v. Northern Iowa -3 | 65-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Night NCAAB *BEST BET* on Northern Iowa -3
This is a revenge game for the Panthers who bring back all 5 starters from a team that lost at Siena by 6 points last season. I expect the Panthers to return the favor at home tonight where they are holding their opponents to just 47.5 ppg. Siena hasn't seen a team that gets after its opponents on the defensive end like UNI all season and this defense will be the key to a win and cover for the Panthers tonight. The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall and an even stronger 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. We'll lay the points on UNI at home in this revenge spot. |
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12-10-09 | Orlando Magic -2 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Magic -2
The Jazz have historically been a good home team, and they are 9-3 at home this season, but this is a really tough spot for them tonight. The Jazz played the Lakers tough for 3 quarters last night and then they were absolutely crushed in the 4th. While they would like to bounce back tonight, I don't think they'll have the legs to get it done against a Magic team that is rested and that has been one of the best road teams in the league the past couple seasons. In fact, the Magic are 10-2 on the road this season. Plus, the Jazz get the Lakers again in two nights so I expect them to be much more concerned with having their revenge in that game than this one. Utah is just 7-18 ATS when playing on back-to-back days since the beginning of last season, losing in these spots by 7 points on average. The Jazz are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. With their banged up roster, I just don't see Utah having the depth to get it done tonight. The Magic are 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Utah and 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall. Take the Magic. |
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12-09-09 | Harvard v. Boston College -11.5 | 74-67 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
3* CBB Revenge Blowout on Boston College -11.5
Harvard went into Boston last year and gave the Eagles a 82-70 beatdown that you can bet they won't forget. Harvard is coming off a hard fought game against UConn in which they battled tough to a six-point loss, but the Huskies most likely were looking past them to their showdown with Kentucky tonight. The Eagles have played a decent schedule up to this point, beating times like Miami, Michigan and Providence in their last three. This is a lot of points to be laying tonight, but when a team has revenge on their minds you know they are not going to be content with winning a close one. Take BC to win big. |
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12-08-09 | Xavier v. Kansas State -5 | Top | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* Motivational Mismatch Game of the Year on K-State -5
The last time these two teams faced off, Xavier handed K-State an embarrassing 103-77 loss, a loss the players and their head coach are calling one of the worst they've ever endured. Now K-State is the more experienced side and it won't be short on motivation to return the favor to Xavier tonight. This is also an extremely difficult spot for Xavier as they play their first true road game against a Wildcat team that has not lost at home this season. We also have a strong system play in support of our side that tells us to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after leading their last 3 games by 5 or more points at the half, with four starters returning from last year's team in the first 10 games of the season. This system is a terrific 29-8 ATS since 1997 and it has seen teams favored by an average of 6.4 points win by an average of 12.1 points. It is also worth noting that this system is 10-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points. |
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12-05-09 | Penn State +7.5 v. Temple | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
3* Saturday NCAAB Line Mistake on Penn St +7.5
I think the odds makers are spotting the Nittany Lions too many points today and we'll look to take advantage. The Underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and Penn State has been outstanding when catching points. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Penn State was upset by 6 points by Temple last season and it will have a great opportunity to return the favor here. Take the points as this one goes right down to the wire. |
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12-04-09 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers -12 | Top | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Year (ESPN) on Cavs -12
The Bulls have lost 5 straight games on the road with 4 of those losses coming by 15 or more points. The Cavs are rolling, having won 13 of their last 16 games. In their last 2 games, they crushed Dallas by 16 and Phoenix by 17 points. Plus, they'll be very hungry tonight after going down to Chicago by 1 point at home in the season's first meeting back on Nov. 5. Before that loss, the Cavs had won their two previous home games against the Bulls by scores of 14 and 25 points and I expected another lopsided win here. The Bulls are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Cleveland and the Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Central. Plus, the Bulls are short on quality depth right now with Tyrus Thomas expected to be out until mid-December and with Kirk Hinrich also listed as doubtful for tonight. Lay the number. |
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12-03-09 | Illinois Chicago +9.5 v. Wisc.Milwaukee | 52-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Illinois Chicago +9.5
Odds makers are giving Wisconsin Milwaukee far too much respect here simply because they knew the public would bite hard on the team with the better record. Truth is, non-conference records don't always tell the truth. Illinois Chicago has hung tight with a couple solid teams from the MVC while Wisconsin Milwaukee has beat up on a bunch of cream puffs. This matchup has been a tight one in recent years with the last 3 meetings being decided by 8 points or less and I expect no different here. Plus, it's nice to know we're backing a team that covered 7 of its last 8 and 5 straight in Horizon league play. Take the points. |
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12-02-09 | Oklahoma State v. Tulsa -2 | 65-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
4* Major Wednesday Night NCAAB *BEST BET* on Tulsa -2
It's no surprise the public is siding with the unbeaten Cowboys here, but I am confident in saying Tulsa is the better team, especially at home where it is 5-0 this season and 38-4 the last 3 seasons. The Golden Hurricane are the most talented team in C-USA, returning 4 starters from a team that won 25 games last season. They bring back more experience than the Cowboys and a slower style of play that will give an Oky State team preferring to play in transition fits tonight. The Golden Hurricane are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less points while the Cowboys are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or less points. Take Tulsa. |
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12-02-09 | Toronto Raptors v. Atlanta Hawks -9 | 115-146 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Hawks -9
After a poor showing at Detroit in their last game, expect to see the Hawks, who are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season, crush the Raptors, who are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS on the road this season and just played last night. Toronto is 0-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by 10.7 points on average. Take the Hawks. |
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12-01-09 | Michigan State +2.5 v. North Carolina | 82-89 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
4* Major Tuesday NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Michigan State +2.5
Expect Sparty to have its revenge tonight after falling to the Heels in last year's National Title Game. Michigan State brings back the much more experienced team and the much better defensive team. While UNC is off to a 6-1 start, it has not been burying its opponents the way we are used to seeing early in the season as this young group of Heels still has plenty to learn about the defensive end of the floor. Losing to Florida was the early season wake up call the Spartans needed. They bounced back from that loss with an impressive 106-68 win over UMass and they will not be lacking motivation here. One big key here is that Michigan State should win the battle of the boards and UNC is on a 6-17 ATS slide in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams, outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game. Also, Michigan State 6-0 ATS after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since the beginning of the 2007 season and UNC is 0-8 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive non-conference games since the beginning of last season. Take Michigan State. |
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11-28-09 | Dallas Mavericks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Cavs -6.5
Both the Mavs and the Cavs played last night, but Cleveland was upset at Charlotte and that is the key. Expect the Cavs to respond in a big way at home tonight. Cleveland is 16-2 ATS off a road loss since the beginning of last season, exploding to win in these spot by an average score of 103.5 to 90.8. It is also 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite during this span, winning by an average score of 102.7 to 89.9 in these spots. Lay the number. |
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11-27-09 | Illinois -8 v. Utah | 58-60 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Illinois -8
I like Illinois to flex its muscles against a young Utah team tonight. Utah is 2-2 on the season and could easily be 1-3. After losing its three best players off last year's team, I expect the Utes to really struggle this season. The Fighting Illini are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss. Odds makers are yet to adjust their line to the current state of each team, an Illinois team that is improved and a Utah team that is mediocre at best. Lay the number. |
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11-25-09 | Toronto Raptors v. Charlotte Bobcats -2 | 81-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Top Side on Bobcats -2
The Bobcats are 14-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less the past 2 seasons and 12-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more since the beginning of last season. The Raptors have struggled on the road at just 2-6 on the season as they are allowing 111.1 ppg away from home. Bet the Bobcats. |
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11-24-09 | Cornell +14 v. Syracuse | Top | 73-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Cornell +14
This is a huge letdown spot for Syracuse tonight after big wins over Cal and UNC. The Orange aren't as talented or as experienced as they were a season ago, making this an even tougher spot for them. Cornell returns all 5 starters from a team that has made the NCAA tourney back-to-back years now and presents problems for the Orange because of how dangerous it is from beyond the arc. Boeheim sticks with his patented zone through thick and thin but Cornell is shooting 46.2% from 3 in two road games this season. The Big Red actually had the Orange down 16 points in the Carrier Dome last season. A better Syracuse team was able to come back to win by 10 points but Cornell still easily covered the 16-point number. In fact, the Big Red are a Perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at Syracuse. I must also mention that this is a very motivated spot for Cornell after being upset by Seton Hall and it is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more. Also, the Big Red are 13-1-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or more points. The Big Red are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Big East while the Orange are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Ivy League. The public is all over the Orange as they are off to a 4-0 SU & ATS start. The books knew what side the money would be going down on here and they have given themselves a cushion with the Big Red. The odds makers expect to make bank with Cornell tonight, but we make sure they make a little less. Take the points. |
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11-23-09 | Texas -14.5 v. Iowa | 85-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Texas -14.5
Iowa's point guard and best player, Jake Kelly transferred following last season and that has left the Hawkeyes in bad shape. They are giving up a ton in size, talent, and athletic ability in this one; so much that I don't think they can keep this one under a 20-point loss. Iowa lives and dies by the three, but Texas is long and athletic and has shown a willingness to defense early one, limiting its opponents to 17.2% from the 3-point line. Texas will treat this one like its first challenge of the season since it is playing a major conference team for the first time and that doesn't look good for Iowa. Lay the number. |
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11-23-09 | Milwaukee Bucks +9 v. San Antonio Spurs | 98-112 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Bucks +9
San Antonio's half court style of play is not conducive to many blowouts, especially when it is not defending well, which it has not. The Spurs are allowing 97.5 ppg and that's bad for them. Milwaukee is on fire, having won 7 of 8 as rookie Brandon Jennings continues to take the league by storm. They have also covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 and are an impressive 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Spurs. The Bucks are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog while the Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Think San Antonio is being overvalued tonight. Take the points. |
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11-20-09 | Vanderbilt +5 v. St Mary's CA | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Vandy +5
Last Friday, I took St. Mary's for an easy late night winner as they took on an inferior New Mexico State team missing some key players. Saint Mary's 2 blowout wins to start the year are the reason why we are seeing it laying so many points here. Today, I'm going to fade the Gaels as they get their first test of the season against a more experienced Vandy team with all 5 starters returning. Right away history is on our side when you consider that plays on any team after a blowout win by 20 points or more, with 3 or more starters returning than their opponent, in the first ten games of the season, are 66-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, the Commodores are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 20 points while St. Mary's is on a 2-10 ATS run after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3 point shots. The Gaels won't get as many good looks tonight and with the 3's not falling with regularity, I look for Vandy to win this one outright. |
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11-20-09 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -6 | Top | 83-78 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
5* ESPN Game of the Month on Celtics -6
Without Jameer Nelson, I don't give the Magic a chance at Boston tonight against a highly motivated Celtics team ready to make a statement after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Magic last season. Expect a big game from Kevin Garnett, who was forced to miss last year's playoff series with an injury, and expect Rajon Rondo to dominate the point guard battle. The home team is 25-12 ATS in the last 37 meetings and the Magic are just 5-14 ATS in the last 19 meetings in Boston. Expect the Celtics to send a message tonight. |
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11-18-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Washington Wizards +5 | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Underdog Shocker on Washington Wizards +5
This is a very tough spot for the shorthanded Cavs, which just played an uptempo basketball game last night against the Warriors. Washington has lost 6 straight so it couldn't be hungrier, and it has had 3 days to rest and prepare. No matter how much better Cleveland may be, Washington always seems to play the Cavs tough. In fact, the Wizards are 5-2 in their last 7 home games against the Cavs. In terms of the number, the Cavs are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 overall meetings and the Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 overall meetings. With Shaquille O'Neal, Anderson Varejao, and Jamario Moon likely sidelined tonight, and with Antawn Jamison likely to see his first action of the season for the Wiz, I can't see the Cavs escaping with a win. Take the points. |
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11-17-09 | Northern Illinois v. Illinois -21 | 61-80 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Major Tuesday Night NCAAB Blowout on Illinois -21
NIU lost by 22 in its first game to Northwestern and it is clearly out of its league against the Illini tonight. In fact, plays on home favorites of 20 or more points off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, in November games, are 71-32 ATS since 1997. Also, NIU is just 2-10 ATS as a road underdog or pick since the beginning of last season while Illinois in on a 10-1 ATS run in home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game, winning in these spots by an average score of 81.8 to 59.7. Lay the points. |
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11-16-09 | Dallas Mavericks v. Milwaukee Bucks -1 | 115-113 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Bucks -1
Without Josh Howard, Tim Thomas, and likely Eric Dampier, the Mavs are in a tough spot being shorthanded playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back. Besides that, the Mavs will be much more interested in their next opponent as they look ahead to a revenge matchup with San Antonio after falling to the Spurs on 11/11. The Bucks have won 4 in a row as teams have not had an answer for rookie sensation Brandon Jennings. Also, the Mavs have found Milwaukee an extremely difficult place to play in recent years, losing 9 of the last 12 games there. In fact, the Mavericks are 0-9 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet the Bucks tonight. |
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11-16-09 | Indiana State +11 v. LSU | 45-56 | Push | 0 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Indiana State +11
Indiana State came on strong at the end of last season and it returns 4 starters from that team. It also inherits the best player off the Big Ten's Iowa Hawkeyes, Jake Kelly, who transferred to be closer to home concerning personal family matters. He averaged 11.6 ppg for Iowa last season and he scored 16 points in ISU's opener. He is a tall guard, who handles the ball extremely well. He can shoot off the dribble and is a solid playmaker. He's a player I believe will take the MVC by storm. Expect a down season from LSU and some early struggles as it adjusts to a lot of new faces getting a lot of playing time. Consider that LSU is on a 2-11 slide as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, winning in these spot by just 3.3 point on average. Lastly, the Sycamores are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. I'll take the points. |
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11-13-09 | New Mexico State v. St Mary's CA -7 | 68-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Season Opener on St. Mary's CA -7
New Mexico St is 2-10 ATS in road games in non-conference play over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average of 12.3 ppg. Plus, New Mexico State will be without of a pair of players who averaged double digits for them last season as both Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater sit for academic purposes. That's just too many points missing for the rest of the guys to make up here. Lay the number. |
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11-13-09 | Houston Rockets v. Sacramento Kings +5 | Top | 100-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +5
The Kings, who only have one less win on the season than Houston, are not getting nearly enough respect tonight, especially when you consider that they are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. It is also crucial that Sacramento is well rested here as it is 18-7 ATS when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 103 to 101.8. The Rockets got out of the gate fast but are since coming back down to earth. Sac is improved and I like it outright tonight. |
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11-13-09 | New Jersey Nets +15.5 v. Orlando Magic | 72-88 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Nets +15.5
The Magic are being way overvalued against the winless Nets tonight, especially when you consider that the Magic are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Nets played the Magic to a 10-point game in the first meeting and I like them to keep this one within the number tonight. |
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11-09-09 | New Orleans Hornets v. Los Angeles Clippers +2 | 112-84 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Clippers +2
The Clippers are ready for this one. They have won 3 in a row and they will be hungry to end a 9-game skid against a struggling Hornets team that just got worked by the Lakers last night. The key here is that New Orleans' defense has stunk this season while the Clippers have scored the ball well. This plays right into our hands as New Orleans is on a 13-32 ATS slide versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game since the beginning of last season. The Hornets are also just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games. Take the Clippers. |
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11-09-09 | Utah Jazz -5.5 v. New York Knicks | 95-93 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Jazz -5.5
Utah is clearly the better team, and while it has had its road woes in recent years, I look for the Jazz to get it done convincingly tonight. NY has lost by 9 or more points in 3 straight games. The Knicks don't match up well with the Jazz and they are lacking star power big time. Utah's effort was called into question last game by head coach Jerry Sloan when it lost to lowly Sacramento. Expect an inspired effort by the Jazz to result in a win and cover tonight. Plays against home teams after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games against an opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Utah. |
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11-06-09 | Washington Wizards +1.5 v. Indiana Pacers | 86-102 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Wizards +1.5
Look for Washington to bounce back from back-to-back losses against a short-handed Pacers squad tonight. The Pacers will be without Mike Dunleavy and Jeff Foster, and leading rebounder Troy Murphy and reserve guard Travis Diener is expected to miss as well. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Look for Agent 0, Gilbert Arenas, to will the Wiz to victory tonight. |
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11-05-09 | San Antonio Spurs +1 v. Utah Jazz | 99-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Spurs +1
The Jazz are off to a slow 1-3 start. While that may be a surprise to some, consider that two key players are out, Kyle Korver and Matt Harpring. Few players in the entire league shoot the 3 like Korver and they are missing his ability to knock down big shots right now. Harpring is a key guy in Utah's second group, especially on the defensive end. The big key here is that San Antonio is healthy with even more depth than it has had in the past with the main addition of Richard Jefferson. The Spurs have also not played since Halloween so Pop will have them very prepared and they will be very fresh for this one. The Spurs have had Utah's number, winning four straight and 29 of the 35 against. San Antonio has also covered the number in all 4 of those consecutive wins. Lastly, the Jazz are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. I'll grab the Spurs tonight. |
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11-04-09 | Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 v. Houston Rockets | 103-102 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Lakers -1.5
I played against the Lakers for a win last night but I'll back them this evening. Yes, the Lakers are yet cover the spread this season, but they'll be ready to go here. They were nearly caught looking ahead to this game last night. They got the win and now they will be ready for the game they've been anticipating. Without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, and with Ron Artest now on the Lakers, I just don't think Houston has the fire power to get the job done against an experienced Lakers team. The Lakers are an impressive 15-4 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.8 to 98.1. Plus, the Lakers are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings with Houston. Lay the points. |
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11-03-09 | Utah Jazz v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5 | 85-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Mavs -5.5
I'll take the well-rested Mavs at home against a Jazz team that just played last night. Utah is 5-16 ATS when playing on back-to-back over the last 2 seasons while the Mavericks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. The Jazz are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog and an awful 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the home team is on a 21-5-1 ATS run in the last 27 meetings. Lay the points. |
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11-03-09 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -9 | 81-83 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Bulls -9
I can't see the Bucks keeping this one within the number on the road tonight against a hungry Bulls team without go-to guy Michael Redd, who is expected to be out at least two weeks with a strained left knee tendon. Chicago has dropped 2 straight on the road since opening with a home win over San Antonio and I expect the Bulls to get back in the win column in a big way tonight. The last 2 times the Bucks have visited the Windy City, the Bulls have posted wins of 13 and 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points. |
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11-03-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Oklahoma City Thunder +8 | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Oklahoma City Thunder +8
Pau Gasol still isn't back for the Lakers and they still haven't covered a spread this season. LA as public a team as there is in the NBA and the books are looking to take advantage of that in the early going. Don't expect the Lakers to be hitting on all cylinders tonight as they hit the road for the first time this season. Plus, one has to think LA will be more interested in tomorrow night's game against a Rockets team that gave them so much trouble in last year's playoffs. The Thunder fell flat against Portland after starting the season 2-0 and I expect much better from them tonight, especially with the champs in town as everyone wants to give the champs their best shot. The Thunder are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points. |
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11-01-09 | Atlanta Hawks +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 110-118 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
3* Sunday Night NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Hawks +7
We faded the Lakers for a big win with our last NBA bailout and we'll do it again here. The Lakers are struggling offensively in the early going without Pau Gasol while the Hawks are off to a 2-0 start and ready to add their name to the contender map by knocking off the defending champs. The Lakers are a huge public play in a bounce back spot, just as the books knew they would be, and that is why odds makers have inflated this line, giving themselves a cushion. The Lakers are on a 4-16 ATS slide off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more and Atlanta is 11-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins since the beginning of last season. Take the points. |
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10-30-09 | Dallas Mavericks +9 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 94-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN) on Mavs +9
The public is on the defending NBA champion Lakers tonight after watching Dallas lay an egg in its opener. The Lakers won their first game by 7 points over the Clippers but they did not cover the 11.5-point spread. The books love to take advantage of the public early in the season by overvaluing teams that the public perceives to be good. But we must keep in mind that Dallas has played LA as tough as anyone at Staples Center over the last few seasons, going 5-0 ATS in their last 5, never losing by more than 7 points. In all, the underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the road team is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Plus, the Mavericks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest and 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double digit loss at home. Take the points. |
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10-30-09 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz -8.5 | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
3* Friday Night Blowout on Jazz -8.5
Utah has been the Bermuda Triangle for a lot of teams (they just get lost there) so it comes as no surprise that the Clippers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Utah. Utah is perennially one of the best home teams in basketball and after opening the season with a road loss, I expect the Jazz to bounce back strong tonight. The Clippers are off back-to-back covers but that streak ends here as they are just 2-25 in Utah since 1996, losing by an average of 13 points in those games. Utah is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home against the Clippers the last 4 seasons, winning by an average of 20 points. Lay the points. |
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10-29-09 | San Antonio Spurs -2.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 85-92 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
4* Major Thursday NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Spurs -2.5
I'll take the hands down better team laying a small number against a young Bulls team tonight. The Spurs dominated the Chris Paul and the Hornets last night without the starters logging many minutes so I don't see tired legs being an issue for San Antonio here. I know Tony Parker took a hard fall last night but it appears that he is going to be okay. So all in all the Spurs are healthy and we saw what a healthy Spurs team is capable of last night. Now, they add more depth and talent with notable players Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. These additions make the Spurs a title contender while I fear the Bulls could take a step back without go-to guy Ben Gordon. Where would they have been in the playoffs without him last season? Plus, star point guard Derrick Rose has an ankle injury that the Bulls are monitoring closely. The injury is expected to cut his playing time way down. Over the last 2 seasons, the Spurs are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS against the Bulls, winning all 4 games by at least 5 points with 3 of the wins coming by 10 points or more. Also, the Spurs are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Chicago. I'll lay the points. |
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10-28-09 | Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 59-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +10.5
Big win for the Celtics last night has the public all over them, but after big wins often come letdowns and that's precisely what I think you'll see from Boston here. The Bobcats have played the Celtics tough as nails and the result has been lucrative. In fact, the Cats are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this matchup and a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Boston. Plus, the Bobcats are an impressive 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 while the Celtics are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Doc Rivers played his starters longer than he wanted to last night, especially KG. Don't expect Boston to be up for the Bobcats the way they were for Lebron James and Shaq and expect Doc to give his vets a little more rest tonight, playing back-to-back early in the season as it is a long season. Take the points. |
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06-14-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 99-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game 5 MONSTER BEST BET on Magic -3
Normally, the series would be heading back to LA for Game 5, but the unique 2-3-2 format of the finals gives the Magic a home game to fight for its playoff life and that is huge. Orlando is a very resilient team and it is not going to lay down in front of its home fans here, especially since this is the last home game of the season. Plus, teams playing with nothing to lose are very dangerous. The Lakers are feeling a little fat and happy right about now, just like they were following their narrow Game 2 victory, and while they may say they want to end it tonight, they aren't going to lose any sleep over a loss as they feel they can win it in front of their home fans in Game 6. The Lakers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win and 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 NBA Finals games. Orlando is 33-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 102.3 to 94.1. Orlando is also 21-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Magic tonight. |
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06-11-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Gm 4 *MONSTER BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +2.5
The Magic shot an NBA Finals record 63% from the floor in Game 3 and still did not cover the spread. If Kobe was his normal self, not shooting 5 of 10 from the free throw line and living up to his title as the games best closer, the Lakers would have won Game 3 despite Orlando's shooting performance. Here are two things I know: the Magic won't shoot as well in Game 4 and Kobe will be better. The Lakers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. I like LA outright in Game 4 so I'll gladly take the insurance points. |
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06-09-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +4 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 104-108 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Finals Game of the Year on LA Lakers +4
I like the Lakers to deliver the knockout blow with an outright win tonight so I'll definitely take them getting 4 insurance points. They escaped with a win in Game 2 while not playing their best and that does tons for their confidence while it doesn't do anything for Orlando's. The Lakers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog. The Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. With the books knowing the public would shift to the Magic tonight, they have given the Lakers plenty of breathing room here with these points. Expect the Lakers to come out on top in a close one. |
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06-07-09 | Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Finals Vegas Line Mistake on Lakers -6.5
Odds makers have only raised this line a half point from what we saw in Game 1 when the Lakers crushed the Magic by 25 points and I expect them to pay for their mistake. While I don't expect the Magic to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 1, I still have the Lakers winning by double digits. The Magic live and die from the three-point line and they were not that bad from three in Game 1 (8 of 23) and were still dominated. Even if they make over their season average of 10, which is going to be difficult with as well as the Lakers are defending dating back to Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, they still have a lot of points to make up. Kobe Bryant is as focused and as hungry as I've seen him. He knows that putting the young and inexperienced Magic in a 0-2 hole all but closes the door on this series. Bet the Lakers! |
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06-04-09 | Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers -6 | Top | 75-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Finals Series Opener on Lakers -6
This is where experience plays a big role. The Lakers played in the Finals a season ago and came up short. They know what to expect on the big stage and this time around they have the luxury of playing Game 1 at home. The fact that they lost in the Finals last year is also key as you won't see a team that is fat and happy. The Magic haven't been here before and I'm confident you will see their nerves in Game 1 tonight. LA also has a couple individuals that really want this title and they know how important a Game 1 win is in achieving it. Phil Jackson has a chance to earn his 10th NBA title and Kobe Bryant wants his first without Shaq and his 4th overall. The Lakers match up much better with the Magic than the Cavs did and they have a lot more weapons. Take advantage of a soft line in Game 1. |
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05-30-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic -2 | Top | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
5* Game 6 BEST BET (TNT) on Magic -2
The Magic have been the better team in this series and there's no way they are going to let this thing go back to Cleveland for a Game 7. The Cavaliers are 2-14 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall and 0-5 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings in Orlando. Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season while Orlando is 12-3 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 107.9 to 88.2 in these spots. Orlando is also 15-3 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.2 to 99.6. I'll back the Magic at home to close out the series tonight. |
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05-29-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +5.5 v. Denver Nuggets | 119-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Major ESPN PRIME TIME SMASH on Lakers +5.5
I'll back the best road team in the NBA tonight catching 5.5 points as it tries to deliver the knockout punch to Denver. LA's role players are starting to step up and I expect another big game from Lamar Odom as his performance last game figures to really boost his confidence. The Lakers are always dangerous when catching points as they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, and 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog. Plus, the Lakers are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings with the Nuggets. The Lakers want to end this series tonight so they can catch a little extra rest before the Finals. Take the points. |
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05-28-09 | Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* Game 5 BEST BET (TNT) on Cavs -7
The Cavaliers will play their best game of the series tonight on their home floor where they are 44-3 this season. Cleveland will be very dangerous tonight because it will be fighting to stay alive in the postseason and also because it will be playing with nothing to lose. Now the pressure is on Orlando to close this thing out. Bottom line, Cleveland wins Game 4 on the road rather easily if the Magic don't go off for 17 three pointers and they won't make near that many on the road tonight. The Cavaliers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss, 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 playoff games as a favorite, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season, 14-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, and 17-6 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The public is all over the Magic tonight so the books are looking to cash in big with a Cleveland cover. We'll go against the grain for another big winner. |
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05-27-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Revenge GOTM on LA Lakers -5.5
After a 19-point Game 4 loss, you can expect the Lakers to bounce back strong on their home floor tonight. In fact, the Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. LA is 25-3 SU in its last 28 home games with the Nuggets and the Nuggets are only 3-11 ATS in the last 14 games in Los Angeles. Plus, the Nuggets are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Denver is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game, losing by an average score of 102.8 to 115.1 in these spots. And lastly, the Lakers are 16-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. I'll lay the number here. |
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05-26-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic | Top | 114-116 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Finals GOTY on Cavs pk
This is a do-or-die game for the Cavs when you consider the bleak history of coming back in a series after falling Behind 1-3, and I expect the Cavs to rise to the occasion. The Cavaliers are 54-26-1 ATS in their last 81 games following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. But here's the clincher: Cleveland is 13-1 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 102.0 to 88.1 in these games. I'll back the league MVP and the Cavs in this must-win spot. |
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05-25-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets -4.5 | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Nuggets -4.5
I'll back the Nuggets at home in what is basically a do-or-die game. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss while the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Denver is 12-1 ATS in these playoffs and after its first home loss of the postseason, the public is backing the Lakers. The books are looking to make money with a Nuggets win and cover and that's where I'll side here. |