Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-19-09 | Butler v. LSU -2 | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tourney First Blood on LSU -2
Butler had a fantastic season which went far better than anyone could have expected, but the reality is that the Bulldogs are young and experience counts this time of year. I'll take a LSU team which returns 4 starters and continues to fly under the radar to crush the Bulldogs here. LSU has a big edge in terms of athletic ability and I expect the Tigers to win the turnover battle. Butler's defense doesn't force many turnover and it is 0-6 ATS after a game forcing an opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The turnover battle decides this one and LSU has the edge. |
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03-18-09 | Houston v. Oregon State +1 | 45-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Oregon State +1
There's no way that Houston should be favored over Oregon State here. Oregon State has a losing record, but it plays in a stronger league. The biggest things to lack at here are how Houston will fare against Oregon State's Princeton Style offense and it's extended 1-3-1 defense and the answer is not good. The only decent team Houston has beaten on the road is UTEP. It about beat Arizona before the Wildcats started kicking things in gear but close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. Oregon State's frustrating style of play has produced wins over Cal, USC, Washington State, and Stanford. Houston doesn't have a resume like that. Plus, the public is backing a team that is 1-8 in its last 9 games ATS. Odds makers are laughing about that one. We'll take the Beavers. |
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03-18-09 | Chicago Bulls v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
5* Wednesday Night NBA BEST BET BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City -2
We'll take the Thunder in a great spot tonight at home and with fresh legs against a Bulls team coming off an emotional come from behind win against the Celtics last night. If you beat Boston on St. Paddy's Day, Karma will hunt you down and that's what happens to the Bulls tonight. The Thunder are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games. OKC has been one of the best covering teams in the NBA this season, especially at home. The Thunder are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Bulls only have 10 wins against 26 losses on the road this season. The Thunder have won 6 of their last 9 games SU including their last 4 at home. OKC takes care of business. |
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03-18-09 | Tennessee-Martin +12 v. Auburn | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
3* NIT SMASH on Tennessee Martin +12
Auburn has covered the number in 10 of the last 11 and comes from a power conference so naturally the public is all over the Tigers. But not so fast. Martin won the Ohio Valley regular season title and has now had 12 days off to fine tune its game on both sides of the ball. You can say that Martin was crushed by Tennessee early in the season and that Auburn beat Tennessee this season, but you can also say that Auburn lost to Mercer early in the season. You have to look at how these teams are playing now and right now Tennessee Martin is not 12 points worse than an Auburn team playing in a weak major conference league. Especially when the little guy in this matchup will be far more motivated. Tennessee Martin is 16-6 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 2 seasons and it will keep this one within single digits. |
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03-18-09 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics -4.5 | 108-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
3* Public Massacre on Celtics -4.5
I liked the C's when this one opened and I'm really liking them now that is has dropped a couple points. I'm well aware of the injury problems to Boston, but the key here is that Miami really struggles on the road and that the Celtics will be hungry to get back in the win column and to avenge a loss to Miami last week. Boston is 27-6 at home this season and plays on Home teams (BOSTON) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by 6 points or less are 27-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. The public has jumped ship from the Celtics bandwagon to provide exceptional value in backing the world champs. Lay the points. |
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03-18-09 | Duquesne v. Virginia Tech -7 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
4* Major NIT 1st Round BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech -7
VA Tech has shown that it can play with anyone in the country at home so a Duquesne team which was slaughtered by 20+ at Duke and at Pitt this season won't stand a chance tonight. Duquesne is 0-7 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. VA Tech is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. This is significant as the Hokies are winning by an average score of 76.9 to 57.7 in these spots. We'll lay the points. |
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03-17-09 | Rhode Island +4.5 v. Niagara | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
4* Major NIT Underdog Shocker on Rhode Island +4.5
The Rams have been outstanding ATS in non-conference action at 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Top to bottom the A-10 was a better league this season and you will see that on display here. Another big key is that Rhode Island head coach Jim Baron is 12-1 against the Purple eagles in his career. Now that's having a team's number. Rhode Island has a great shot to win this one outright so we'll take the points. |
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03-17-09 | Davidson v. South Carolina -3.5 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
5* NIT GOTY on S. Carolina -3.5
The Gamecocks have won 2 of the last 4 NIT championships. While this team had high hopes of playing in the NCAA Tourney, this tells us that we don't expect a letdown from this team because it didn't go dancing. While Curry has been a fine player again this season, the Davidson supporting cast is not as good as it was a season ago. That means all the Gamecocks will have to do is keep Curry from shooting a high percentage and this one will be in the books. SC is 16-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to Tennessee and Clemson, which are both in the Big Dance. SC ended the season on a disappointing note with a double digit loss to eventual SEC Tourney Champ Mississippi State, but the Gamecocks are is 8-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Davidson is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. A more athletic South Carolina squad get the job done at home tonight. Lay the points. |
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03-16-09 | Houston Rockets v. New Orleans Hornets -3.5 | Top | 95-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK on Hornets -3.5
There's been plenty of talk about the Rockets and the Jazz in the West lately, but the Hornets have quietly won 9 of their last 11. With a win tonight, New Orleans can move into second place in the NBA Southwest and that's precisely what is going to happen. Home court has dominated this series and that comes as no surprise since both teams are much better at home than they are on the road. New Orleans is 23-9 at home this season and 7-1 over its last 8 home games with that lone loss coming to Boston. During this stretch the Hornets have blowout wins over Dallas and Orlando and Orlando has proven to be one of the best road teams in the NBA. New Orleans returns home off a 4-game road trip and will be looking to erase the sour taste an 18-point defeat to the Bulls has left. New Orleans is 19-6 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 16-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are also 14-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons and 24-11 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It has been like clockwork with the home team covering the last 4 in this matchup and this trend will continue tonight. Take the Hornets in a blowout. |
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03-15-09 | Ohio State v. Purdue -6 | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
3* Big Ten Championship Game BEST BET on Purdue -6
There's no question about the talent of the Buckeyes, but they are young and I expect a big letdown after an emotional win over No. 1 seed Michigan State. It is clear how badly Purdue wants this Big Ten Tourney title and nothing will stand in its way. Purdue was a 9.5-point favorite at home in the last meeting this season and crushed the Buckeyes by 25. This game will have a home court feel for the Boilers playing in front of a lot of their faithful. Purdue is now 15-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points. |
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03-15-09 | Florida State +6 v. Duke | Top | 69-79 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
5* ACC Tournament GOTY on FSU +6
FSU is hitting on all cylinders right now and will look to finish the job against Duke. The Seminoles lost by just 3 points at Duke 12 days ago and will be out to avenge that loss here. Duke hasn't blown anyone out in over a month so this line is definitely inflated. Knocking off UNC and Duke to win the highest rated RPI conference will do wonders for FSU's tourney seed so that is a huge motivator here. The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog. Also, the Seminoles are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 vs. Atlantic Coast. The Blue Devils are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 10-22 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games as a favorite, and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Bet FSU! |
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03-14-09 | Jackson State v. Alabama State -2.5 | 58-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
3* SWAC Championship Game on Alabama State -2.5
Condensed Writeup to get these out to you ASAP. There will be lots of Bama State fans in Birmingham for this one and the home court fan base will give the Hornets a nice edge. In addition, Jackson State defeated the Hornets by 3 points in the last meeting this season so this will be a revenge spot for Bama State. We're looking at a Jackson State team that is just 9-14 when playing away from home this season and this one will feel like a true road game with all the Hornets in the house.. I'm laying the points. |
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03-14-09 | Syracuse v. Louisville -6 | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
3* Big East Conf. Tourney Championship Game (ESPN) on Louisville -6
Condensed writeup to get these out to you ASAP. This is where tired legs finally catch up with the Orange. This will be their 4th game in 4 days and they have played 7 OT periods in their last 2 games. I took Cuse yesterday as they were still getting a good adrenaline rush but this is where the crash comes against a Louisville team that will pressure the heck out of the the Orange full court. Jonny Flynn has particularly logged big minutes the last 2 games and I expect him to experience some turnover trouble today. Lay the points. |
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03-14-09 | Akron v. Buffalo +2.5 | 65-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
4* MAC Championship Game BEST BET (ESPN 2) on Buffalo +2.5
Condensed writeup to get these out to you ASAP. Odds makers have the wrong team favored here. The Bulls did not play well down the home stretch but they have shown in this tournament that they truly are the best team in the league. Buffalo lost at home by 5 points back on Feb. 26 in the last regular season matchup and that brings the revenge factor into this one. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and we'll take the points here. |
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03-14-09 | Purdue -3.5 v. Illinois | Top | 66-56 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Conference Tournament GOTY on Purdue -3.5
Condensed Writeup to get these out to you ASAP. The Boilermakers want this Big Ten Tourney championship bad after they had a disappointing regular season by their standards. This is a team which expected to contend more closely for the Big Ten regular season title but was slowed by injuries. The key here is that Purdue lost both regular season games to Illinois and the last one was an 18-point embarrassment. The Boilermakers will be out for blood in front a home court fan base here. Lay the points. |
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03-13-09 | Dallas Mavericks v. Golden State Warriors +1 | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
3* Friday Night BAILOUT on Golden State +1
The Warriors are a team which has Dallas' number at home because the Mavs cannot match Golden State's pace for an entire game. In fact, Golden State is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS at home against Dallas the last 3 seasons. In all, the Warriors have won 10 of the last 14 meetings the last 3 seasons. What will really have Golden State head hunting here is that fact that Dallas put a 117-93 whooping on the Warriors last time they faced off. Golden State is 13-4 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. Take the Warriors! |
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03-13-09 | West Virginia v. Syracuse +6.5 | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major Big East Tourney BOMB on Syracuse +6.5
The Cuse just played a 6 OT thriller last night, and while the public will likely be looking for a letdown after such a game, I just can't see in happening. While a game like that has to produce some fatigue, these are 18-22 year old kids who have only played a 30-some game season with usually just 2 games a week. Young kids can bounce back the next day much better than NBA players do when they play back to back. I know this is the third game in 3 days for the Orange, but heart and a home court fan base will get them through. Cuse won by 13 in this matchup at home during the regular season and bring a 6-0 SU and ATS winning streak into this one. Cuse is now 21-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick since 1997 and 15-5 ATS in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997. Take the points! |
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03-13-09 | Boston College v. Duke -10 | 65-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
3* SMASH (ESPN 2) on Duke -10
Duke is coming off a loss against UNC to end the season and gets a team that beat them by 6 points during the regular season. The Blue Devils will be out for blood in this one. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Another key factor here is that is line has earned public support on Boston College, which was the intent of the odds makers. We'll go against the grain and take the hungry Blue Devils. |
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03-13-09 | Penn State v. Purdue -7 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* Conference Tournament Blowout of the Year on Purdue -7
Off back-to-back losses to end the season, expect Purdue to steamroll the Nittany Lions in front of a basically home crowd. It was a disappointing season for the Boilers as injuries played a part in not achieving a conference title, but they can make up for it by winning this tournament. Purdue believes it is a Final Four caliber team and winning the Big Ten Tournament could have it looking at a No. 3 seed, which would only help it get there. Purdue lost by 11 points in its last game of the season against Michigan State and is 9-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 16.7 ppg in these spots. The Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Lay the number as Purdue earns a double digit victory! |
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03-13-09 | Houston Rockets v. Charlotte Bobcats +1.5 | 91-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Major Friday Night NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +1.5
Houston has really struggled on the road this season, especially of late, losing 5 of their last 7. With a big game against the Spurs up next, I expect the red hot Bobcats, winners of 6 of their last 7, to catch the Rockets looking past them tonight. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Charlotte! |
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03-12-09 | USC +1.5 v. California | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on USC +1.5
I like the Trojans in their own backyard against the Bears tonight. USC opened as a 2-point favorite and the public has now bet the Bears into the favorite role. I feel the odds makers initial line favoring the Trojans was the right call and I will back them here. The key is USC's defense as Cal is just 1-7 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 66.6 to 73.0. USC beat Cal at home as a 5-point favorite earlier this season and with a largely home crowd at Staples Center, I like the Trojans to do it again. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog and we'll take the points. |
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03-12-09 | San Diego State v. UNLV -4 | Top | 71-57 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
5* MWC Tournament GOTY on UNLV -4
The Rebels just lost at SDSU last game to end the regular season and I like them to bounce back strong here with home court on their side in the quarterfinal round of the MWC Tourney. What makes this play even stronger is that the Rebels lost at home by 2 points in the first meeting with SDSU this season to set up an double revenge situation. UNLV is 17-6 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent since 1997, 11-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons, and 13-4 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 73.3 to 62.9. Lay the points. |
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03-12-09 | Kent State v. Buffalo +1.5 | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
4* Major Conf. Tourney Afternoon Delight on Buffalo +1.5
Buffalo is the most talented team in this conference and I like the Bulls to win this one outright. The Bulls hit a little rough patch late in the season but with an NCAA Tourney berth on the line, they will be focused and ready to go. Kent is 1-7 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 69.6 to 76.0. Kent is also 2-8 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season, losing in these spots by average of 10.0 ppg. This is a Buffalo team which nearly beat UConn. We'll take the most talented team in the MAC here. Buffalo outright. |
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03-11-09 | Utah Jazz v. Atlanta Hawks -2 | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Public Massacre of the Month on Hawks -2
I cashed in with the Jazz last night with my Public Opinion Game of the Week, but now it's time to fade away with the Jazz playing back-to-back against an athletic Hawks team which will be out to avenge a blowout loss at Utah a couple weeks back. With 12 straight in the win column, the target on Utah's back is huge and I fully expect the Hawks to knock it off. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. The Favorite is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Lay the number. |
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03-11-09 | Massachusetts v. Duquesne -2 | Top | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
5* 2009 Conference Tournament GOTY on Duquesne -2
Duquesne won at UMass 94-77 during the regular season and will blow this line out of the water tonight. UMass won its last 2 games, with its last one being an upset win over Rhode Island or this line would easily be 5 points. Duquesne is a team capable of making a run to the finals as it is one of the few conference teams which defeated Xavier and played the likes of Rhode Island and Temple very tough. The Rhode Island Rams beat the Dukes by 2 points late in conference play and they are waiting for Duquesne in the second round. The Dukes would like nothing more than to pay the Rams back and they won't let a disappointing UMass team stand in their way. With Duquesne ending the season on a sour note, with a poor performance against Dayton, I look for that loss to get the Dukes playing with an even larger sense of urgency and focus tonight. UMass is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, losing by an average of 10.7 ppg in these spots. The Dukes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. This one is a major mismatch. Lay the points! |
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03-10-09 | South Florida v. Seton Hall -5 | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
4* Major Blowout of the Tournament on Seton Hall -5
Seton Hall covered the number in 8 of its last 10 games and 12 of its last 16. You'll be hard pressed to find a team better against the number down the stretch. This is a confident team and one that believes it can pull off a couple upsets in this tournament. The Pirates certainly won't let USF stand in the way of round 2. Seton Hall is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in all matchups with the Bulls over the last 3 seasons, which includes a 15-point blowout win this year. The Bulls are a terrible 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-5 ATS in all in the last 5 meetings in this matchup. Lay the points! |
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03-10-09 | New York Knicks +3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 120-112 | Win | 102 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Knicks +3.5
This is a great spot for the Knicks tonight as they have endured 3 straight setbacks to the Bucks this season and will be out for revenge. All of those wins for Milwaukee came before Christmas. The Bucks have since endured some critical injuries that have slowed their early winning ways considerably. The Bucks are just 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. While the Knicks are just 7-22 on the road SU, they are 16-12 ATS and I really like them to win this one outright in this triple revenge spot. NY is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season, winning by 3.0 ppg in these spots, so I'm not worried about fatigue. NY is also 18-6 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs. an opponent of 20 points or more since 1996, winning these games outright by 1.5 points on average. Lastly, Milwaukee is 8-25 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 6.1 points in these spots. Fade the Bucks! |
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03-10-09 | Utah Jazz -3 v. Indiana Pacers | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NBA Public Opinion Game of the Week on Utah -3
We've seen what good health can do for the Jazz as they have rattled off 11 straight and 14 of their last 15. While Utah's road record is just 12-17 on the season, I don't think it's too far of a stretch to say it would be better than .500 if the Jazz had been healthy all year long. The Jazz have won 4 of the last 5 in this series and with Mike Dunleavy out for sure and with leading scorer Danny Granger expected to miss as well, the Pacers won't have enough fire power to compete in this one. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Take Utah! |
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03-09-09 | St Mary's CA +7 v. Gonzaga | Top | 58-83 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
5* WCC Tournament Championship Game BEST BET (ESPN)on St. Mary's +7
Plain and simple, the Gaels are getting too many points. St. Mary's lost by 7 points at Gonzaga in a game where Patty Mills did not play the second half. Then, it lost by just 2 points at home in a game where star guard Mills didn't play at all. Mills got his feet wet against a good Portland team last night. After making some first half mistakes, he looked pretty much like his old self in the second half and I expect him to be even better tonight. This one is on a neutral floor and with St. Mary's maybe needing this win to ensure that they will be dancing (plenty still have them on the bubble), I like the Gaels to give the Zags all they want and more. This is a better St. Mary's team now because of Mills' injury as it has forced other guys to step up in his absence. The Gaels are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including 2-0 this season. The Gaels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet St. Mary's! |
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03-09-09 | Orlando Magic v. Detroit Pistons +2 | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Pistons +2
Great spot for the Pistons with the Magic coming off a big road win over the Celtics yesterday. That puts the Magic in an inevitable letdown spot against a team which has had its number. Detroit is 16-3 against the Magic over the last 3 seasons and 9-1 at home during that span as Detroit's tough defense has gotten the best of the Magic. Detroit has a 6-point win at home and an 8-point win on the road this season over Orlando and it will be ready to strike again after going down to the Hawks last game. The public is on the Magic, right where odds makers want them to be, but Mr. Joe Public is failing to take into account how well the Pistons are playing right now. Allen Iverson has been out of the lineup for Detroit and the Pistons have regained their chemistry. Plays on home teams after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 55-25 ATS since 1996. Bet Detroit. |
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03-08-09 | Denver Nuggets -7 v. Sacramento Kings | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday Night NBA BEST BET BAILOUT on Denver Nuggets -7
The Nuggets are in a tight race in the Northwest Division, just a half game in front of Utah and Portland. The Nuggets have struggled on the road recently, but I don't see those struggles taking place today against a team they have dominated. Denver has won 118-85 at Sacramento and 118-99 at home in this season's meetings, making it quite clear that the Kings don't have the offensive fire power to keep up. Off a loss to division rival Utah, the Nuggets have heavy motivation to win here to keep the top spot in the division. Sacramento is 5-14 ATS as a home underdog this season,losing by an average score of 98.1 to 109.6 in these spots. The road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5, 27-7-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Lay the points. |
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03-08-09 | Denver U +7.5 v. Arkansas Little Rock | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
5* Sun Belt Conf. Tournament GOTY on Denver +7.5
Denver played Little Rock to a 9-point game during the regular season, but that LR team still had leading scorer Steven Moore still in the lineup. Moore has been booted of the team and you can expect an even better effort today from a Pioneers team vying for an automatic bid to the big dance. Denver has been one of the very best dogs in the country at 11-4 ATS as an underdog this season and even better on a neutral floor - 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog. Denver is also 11-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 61.9 to 58.1. The Trojans are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Denver covers this one easily with a great shot at winning outright. |
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03-07-09 | Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5 | 89-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Major Saturday Night NBA BEST BET BLOWOUT on Cavs -9.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. The Cavs won't feel sorry for themselves after losing to Boston, they'll get right back on the horse and take it to the Heat tonight. Expect a huge game from LeBron, who struggled last night against the Celtics. Here's the nuts: Cleveland is 11-0 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 103.7 to 86.2 in these spots. Lay the number. |
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03-07-09 | East Carolina v. Central Florida -10 | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on UCF -10
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. This is a big revenge spot for UCF who lost at E. Carolina 75-89 a month ago. That was UCF's first loss against the Pirates in 10 games dating back to 1997. I'll take UCF to bounce back strong against the Pirates today. ECU is 2-11 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, getting crushed by an average score of 60.8 to 75.8. Lay the number. |
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03-07-09 | New Mexico v. Wyoming +4.5 | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Underdog Shocker on Wyoming +4.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Wyoming was crushed 57-86 at New Mexico a month ago and yet the Cowboys are just 4.5 point dogs? Exactly, New Mexico is way better on its home floor than it is on the road and Wyoming will be out for major revenge after taking a beating like that. Wyoming has won 9 of the last 10 at home in this matchup and 13 of 15 at home this season. The Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Every line tells a story and this one tells us to take Wyoming. |
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03-07-09 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Iowa State -3.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. I absolutely love the Cyclones in this last home game spot as they are 12-6 at home on the season and teams tend to play at another level in their last home game. We certainly saw this with Texas Tech in its last home game when it crushed Kansas by 19. That win sets the Red Raiders up for a huge letdown here against a hungry ISU team that will have revenge on its mind after losing by 12 at Texas Tech a couple weeks back. Texas Tech is 0-10 in true road games this season. The Favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. The Red Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or less. Pound the Cyclones! |
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03-07-09 | Tulane +25 v. Memphis | 47-74 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Tulane +25
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. First off, I don't think Tulane deserves to be catching this many points today no matter what, but especially not against a Memphis team with no reason to run up the score. Tulane comes in having won 3 in a row and will give the Tigers their best shot as every team in the conference attempts to do. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 8 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 42-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Tulane keeps this one within the number. |
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03-06-09 | San Francisco v. Pepperdine +5.5 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
5* WCC Tournament GOTY on Pepperdine +5.5
I love Pepperdine catching this many points tonight. Pepperdine did lose its last 4 games, but 3 of those losses came to the league's 3 best teams (Portland, Gonzaga, St. Mary's). Its last loss of the season came to San Francisco by 8 points. That was a revenge game for the Dons which were defeated at home by Pepperdine earlier this season. With Pepperdine losing its last game against the Dons, now it holds the revenge angle again. First off, the Underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Dons are a poor 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Waves are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following an ATS loss. The Waves are being undervalued here and we'll look to take advantage just like we did in a similar situation that saw Indiana State win outright as a dog last night. |
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03-06-09 | Minnesota Timberwolves +15.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 90-110 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
4* Major Friday Night NBA BEST BET on Timberwolves +15.5
The Lakers have already defeated the Wolves 3 times this season. The most they have won by is 13 points with the latest win coming by just 3 points in a game where the Lakers just coasted back on February 22nd. Blowing out Minnesota is not high on the Lakers list tonight as they head into a big 3-game road trip with Portland, Houston, and San Antonio next. The biggest thing for the Lakers at this point is to keep Kobe Bryant and the starters fresh so I anticipate seeing a lot of the bench in this one. The Wolves were embarrassed brutally at Golden State last time out and they know they will need to step up their play so they aren't embarrassed like that tonight. While Minnesota is just 10-19 on the road this season, it is 18-11 ATS in those games as it has been continually undervalued. The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Lakers are 19-40 ATS in their last 59 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Timberwolves are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. Take Minnesota. |
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03-06-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz -9 | 91-97 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Jazz -9
The Jazz are on fire and will be ready to destroy the Nuggets tonight. The Utah is playing the best ball of any team in the division right now as it is now healthy and this will be a statement game for the Jazz. What fuels Utah's fire even more is that they were defeated at Denver 117-97 in the last meeting. With revenge on the mind against a Nuggets team which just played last night, I look for the Jazz to roll. Utah has won 22 of the last 25 in this series at home and it takes on a Nuggets team which is 0-4 SU and ATS its last 4 on the road. Melo busted out with a big 38-point effort as to show George Karl and everyone else that he needs to be in the lineup but all that performance did was drain him emotionally and I see him having a very mediocre game tonight. Denver is just 6-18 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Utah is 15-5 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Jazz are winning by double digits on average in both of these spots. Can't see Utah winning by less than 14 in this statement game. |
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03-06-09 | New Jersey Nets +9 v. Orlando Magic | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Nets +9
The Nets are playing good basketball, having won 3 of their last 5 SU and all 5 ATS. They took Boston right down to the wire 2 nights ago and I like them to be even more competitive against the Magic tonight. This is a look ahead spot for the Magic as they go to Boston next while this is a revenge spot for the Nets who were defeated 101-84 here as a 13-point underdog a month ago. The public is on the Magic and that is the wrong place to be in this spot. While NJ is just 14-15 on the road this season, it is 18-11 ATS. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Off a big win over the Suns and with Boston up next, the Magic won't bring their A-game tonight. |
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03-05-09 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets -5 | 90-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NBA Northwest Division GOTW (TNT) on Nuggets -5
The Blazers have struggled on the road all season long and are just 1-5 in their last 6 road contests. Denver returns home after back-to-back road losses and will be very motivated to bury the Blazers here as Portland is now just a half game back in the standings. Denver is 22-7 at home this season and a strong 7-2 in division play. Portland just played last night and had to use a lot of energy to come back from a double digit deficit against Indiana. The Trail Blazers are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Denver and 9-23-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings overall. The Trail Blazers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog. The Nuggets are 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Nuggets. |
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03-05-09 | Cal State Northridge +1.5 v. UC Davis | 99-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
4* Major Big West GOTM on CS Northridge +1.5
Too much is at stake for Northridge to lose this game as a loss could end up costing the Matadors a conference title and top seed in the conference tourney. Davis gave Northridge a scare at Northridge earlier this season so I don't expect the Matadors to be overlooking Davis here. It appears the public has gotten wind of Northridge missing a couple players, but this is a deep team and it won't matter tonight because of the interior advantage it has with Tremaine Townsend. The Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Matadors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Northridge wins this one outright. |
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03-05-09 | Dayton v. Xavier -10 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
5* Atlantic 10 GOTY on Xavier -10
This is a revenge game for Xavier, which lost to Dayton by 13 points on the road earlier this season. What makes this revenge spot even better is that it is Xavier's last home game and teams tend to really up their level of play in these spots. In addition, Xavier will be motivated by needing this one to keep their conference lead as Rhode Island is a half game back and Dayton is just a game back in the standings. Xavier is a perfect 11-0 at home versus Dayton since 1997 and embarrassed the Flyers by 26 as an 11-point favorite a season ago. Dayton has struggled on the road, losing its last 3. The Favorite is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the Flyers are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Xavier. The Musketeers are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall and we'll take them in this highly motivated spot tonight. |
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03-05-09 | Dallas Mavericks v. New Orleans Hornets -6 | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Hornets -6
This is Dallas' 4th game in 5 nights and it just won a highly emotional game against the Spurs last night. The Mavs aren't going to have enough left in the tank here. Plus, Dallas is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last 4 road games. New Orleans is red hot having won 5 in a row and I think this team is really clicking right now. Don't be surprised if the Hornets make a nice run to end the season. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, and 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 Thursday games. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Lay the points. |
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03-05-09 | Indiana State +3 v. Drake | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
3* Conference Tourney Line Mistake on Indiana State +3
The entire world is on Drake tonight and that's just where the books want it. Drake beat ISU earlier in the season, but ISU won the final meeting by 12 points as it won 6 of its last 7 games. Drake has really crumbled down the stretch losing 10 of its final 14 games. Drake is 0-6 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons and 0-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The Sycamores were not healthy for a good portion of the season and are just now hitting their stride. I think the books have the wrong team favored tonight. |
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03-04-09 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz -8.5 | Top | 94-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Blowout of the Year on Jazz -8.5
You don't want to take on the Jazz on their home floor without fresh legs and that's exactly what the Rockets will have to do tonight. Also, each of the first 2 meetings this season were Rockets wins in Houston so I expect the now healthy Jazz to really be out to send a message tonight. Houston has lost 4 of its last 5 road games SU and ATS to the likes of the Knicks, Grizzlies, Bucks, and Bulls so playing the red hot Jazz on the road does not figure to treat them well. The Jazz are an incredible 57-25-2 ATS in their last 84 games as a home favorite. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. This is the type of game where the Rockets will miss Tracy McGrady as the Jazz have too much star power going against the Rockets tonight. The rout is on! |
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03-04-09 | Memphis v. Houston +7.5 | 69-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Public Massacre of the Week on Houston +7.5
The public is all over Memphis today and that is going to get them burned. UAB was catching just 4.5 points at home against Memphis and this Houston team crushed the Blazers by 19 this season. Plain and simple, the Cougars are catching too many. This is like the Super Bowl for Houston and I expect the Cougars to leave it all out on the floor. The Tigers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5. Another key here is that Houston's recent lack of success ATS has elevated this line. Houston is 20-6 ATS after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1997, losing by just .5 ppg in these spots on average. Take the points in a close one! |
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03-04-09 | Atlanta Hawks v. New York Knicks | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Knicks pk
The Knicks have posed major problems for the Hawks this season and are 2-0 ATS as a result with an 8-point win here in late January. Atlanta's offense has really struggled of late and that does not bode well for the Hawks either as the Knicks have been scoring at will. You might be thinking revenge, but Atlanta is just 11-24 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 88.0 to 99.1 in these spots. The biggest thing that will kill the Hawks tonight is NY's ability to knock down threes. Atlanta is 4-16 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 93.1 to 105.9. This line is a gift and we'll take it. |
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03-03-09 | Wake Forest -1.5 v. Maryland | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Public Opinion Game of the Week on Wake Forest -1.5
The public likes Wake here and I have to agree. Maryland has been playing strong ball down the stretch but Wake is proposes lots of mismatch problems because of its length against an undersized Maryland squad. The Deacs have struggled away from home in ACC play, but they will not take the Terps lightly tonight after seeing them knock off UNC. Another thing to Wake's benefit is that it has had an extra day to prepare for this one while the Terps just played Sunday. Maryland is 0-6 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 61.7 to 75.0. The Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and the Terrapins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or less. Take Wake! |
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03-03-09 | Toronto Raptors v. Houston Rockets -8 | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA BEST BET BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -8
The Raptors would like to bounce back tonight after back-to-back double digit defeats in the first 2 games of this 3-game road trip, but I just don't see it happening against a Rockets team which has won 9 in a row at home. The Rockets are 24-6 at home on the season, winning those games by an average of 8.7 ppg. They'll easily beat their average against one of the coldest teams in the NBA tonight as the Rockets have outscored opponents by an average of 14.5 points during the nine-game winning streak at home. Toronto crushed Houston 94-73 back in January and the Rockets will be out to avenge that loss. The Raptors are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Lay the number! |
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03-03-09 | Virginia v. Clemson -14.5 | Top | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Chalk BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH on Clemson -14.5
I absolutely love the Tigers in this spot tonight. This is the final home game for the Tigers and you can bet they will be jacked up, especially after dropping back-to-back games. In addition, the Tigers lost to lowly Virginia on the road back in January so they will be out for revenge here. Clemson is an even better team than it was a season ago when it crushed Virginia 82-51 on the road, and the Cavs are far worse. Clemson is winning its home games by an average of 17.6 ppg this season and this one will be far worse than that. Lay the number! |
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03-02-09 | Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder +5 | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NBA BEST BET on Thunder +5
We'll take the Thunder in a great spot tonight. First off, the Thunder just took the Mavs to OT last Friday before losing by 2. So that gives OKC some extra incentive to win here. Secondly, the Mavs will be far more worried about their next game against a Spurs team that just crushed them 93-76 last week. And to prove that the last meeting between these teams was no fluke, OKC played the Mavs to a 4-point game in Dallas back in December as well. The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Thunder are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Bet the Thunder! |
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03-02-09 | Davidson v. Elon +14.5 | 90-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Public Massacre on Elon +14.5
This is the last regular season game for Elon and with Davidson in town, you can expect these boys to treat it like the Super Bowl. Elon lost by just 15 at Davidson in mid-January and I like it to feed off of the crowd to give the Wildcats a scare tonight. The Wildcats are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 13.0 or greater and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Phoenix are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (ELON) - off an upset loss as a favorite, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 88-35 ATS since 1997. Take the points! |
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03-02-09 | Villanova v. Notre Dame -3 | Top | 77-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
5* ESPN Big Monday Game of the Month on Notre Dame -3
Notre Dame is 7-9 in Big East play this season and has 2 remaining games in conference play to get to .500. This is the one the Irish really need though as it fits into the category of a quality win. A loss here ensures Notre Dame a losing mark in the Big East and likely kisses its Big Dance hopes goodbye outside winning the conference tourney. The Irish are 11-2 at home this season and 47-2 in their last 49 home games. Notre Dame has won 4 of its last 6 with one of those losses coming at UConn in a game where the Irish went right down to the wire with the Big East front runner. The tournament takes notice of teams playing their best ball down the stretch, so again this is a huge game for ND. Nova has not played well of late, barely escaping lowly DePaul and losing to Georgetown. The Wildcats are now just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup. The Fighting Irish are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Bet ND at home in this desperation spot. |
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03-01-09 | Oregon State v. Oregon -1.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
3* Sunday Night Bailout on Oregon -1.5
It's been a terribly disappointing season for the Ducks, but they come into this one with momentum for the first time all season in the Pac-10 as they picked up their first Pac-10 win last time out. This is the final home game for the Ducks and the only things that would sweeten up this season is a big win over rival Oregon State. Oregon played the Beavers to a 3-point game on the road and will now look to have its revenge. Oregon has won 11 straight at home in this series dating back to 1997 and I don't see the Ducks laying down even more a minute here against a team they have dominated. Oregon State is 0-6 ATS in March games over the last 3 seasons, 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record, and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games. Take Oregon at home. |
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03-01-09 | New Orleans Hornets v. New Jersey Nets +4 | 99-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday NBA BEST BET on Nets +4
The Hornets have lost 4 straight ATS and 7 of their last 9, yet the public is still all over them here and that has the books licking their chops. It's been a struggle for the Hornets on the road of late and it will be a struggle for them today as Chris Paul will not be able to have his way with the very quick Devin Harris guarding him and going at him. The Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Nets are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take the points. |
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03-01-09 | Michigan State +1 v. Illinois | Top | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
5* National TV BOMB (CBS) on Michigan State +1
With Illinois breathing down Michigan State's neck in the Big Ten standings, expect the Spartans to send the Illini and the Boilermakers, who are tied with the Illini in 2nd place, a message with a big win this afternoon. Michigan State is the hands down better team and coming off a very lackluster performance against Iowa so it will be charged up for the Illini today. Michigan State has been at its best on the road at 8-1 in true road games. It is 6-0 ATS in road games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season while Illinois is 0-7 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. The Fighting Illini are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 while the Spartans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Izzo has his boys ready to roll today. Take MSU! |
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02-28-09 | Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz -16 | 89-102 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Jazz -16
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. This looks like a lot of points to lay at first glance and that's exactly what the books want the public to think. When you look closer, you see a red hot Jazz team, which has won 6 in a row SU and ATS, playing the lowly Kings on 3 days rest. The Kings just played last night and they will not have nearly enough left in the tank to compete here. The last time the Kings won and then played the next night happened a week ago. They beat Memphis and then lost by 21 at Dallas. Jazz win this one by 20 easily. Lay the number! |
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02-28-09 | UCLA v. California +2.5 | 72-68 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Cal +2.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Cal is 16-1 at home this season and it is looking for revenge against a UCLA team that clubbed the Bears 81-66 a month ago. I like Cal to win this one as UCLA has dropped 3 of its last 4 road games. Cal is 7-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Bears. |
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02-28-09 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt -1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
5* 2009 NCAAB GAME OF THE YEAR on Vandy -1
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Off back to back road losses, the dores return home to get back in the win column against an SC team they'll also be looking to gain revenge against. Vandy has won 2 straight at home in this series the last 3 seasons and 4 of the last 5 meetings overall. A big emotional blowout win over Kentucky puts the Gamecocks in a letdown spot. Vandy is 12-4 at home this season while SC has really struggled away from home, just 2-4 L6 SEC road games. The Gamecocks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less. The Commodores are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. I'll back Vandy all the way to the bank with my largest wager of the year. |
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02-28-09 | Houston Rockets v. Chicago Bulls +1.5 | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Bulls +1.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. After being embarrassed by Washington, we'll take the Bulls at home in this bounce back spot against a Houston team that has lost its last 3 SU and ATS on the road. These losses have come to Milwaukee, Memphis, and NY and the Bulls are playing better than all of those teams right now. Houston is just 4-14 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons, losing by 5.6 points on average in these spots. Take the Bulls. |
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02-28-09 | Ohio State v. Purdue -9.5 | 50-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
4* Major Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Purdue -9.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. After falling flat at Michigan, expect a huge offensive explosion at home against the Buckeyes in this revenge spot. In addition, the Buckeyes will be out to avenge an 8-point loss suffered at Ohio State earlier this season. Purdue is 14-2 at home this season, winning by an average score of 72.2 to 54.6 in those games. Purdue is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Boilermakers. |
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02-28-09 | Notre Dame +11.5 v. Connecticut | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
3* Afternoon Delight (CBS) on Notre Dame +11.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Notre Dame has turned it on of late, winning 4 of 5, and it knows that a big win over a team like UConn could be what gets it off the bubble and into the Big Dance come selection Sunday. UConn is not the same team without Dyson and should not be laying this many points. The Huskies are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. |
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02-28-09 | Southern Mississippi +23 v. Memphis | 42-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on So. Miss +23
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Memphis has no incentive to really crush So. Miss here as it already has this season. After an emotionally and physically draining game at UAB, expect to see Memphis coast while So. Miss plays its butt off to ensure that it isn't embarrassed as badly this time. Plays on underdogs of 20 or more points (SOUTHERN MISS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 29-8 ATS since 1997. |
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02-27-09 | Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 v. Denver Nuggets | 79-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Side of the Night on Lakers -2.5
Look, I know LA just played last night in Phoenix, but LA is a deep team, even without Bynum, and Kobe loves challenges like this, so I don't see fatigue being an issue. Plus, Bryant departed with 57 seconds remaining in the third quarter and the rest of the starters followed suit to start the fourth as Los Angeles' reserves took over the rest of the way. LA has dominated Denver to the tune of 10-3 SU and ATS the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets have hit a rough patch, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last 4. They were blown out 76-114 4 nights ago by Boston and the Lakers aren't going to let the Celtics one up them in any way as they look to clinch the best record in the NBA to seal home court throughout the playoffs. Denver is 2-11 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons while LA is 14-3 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take LA! |
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02-27-09 | Portland Trail Blazers -5.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 102-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Blazers -5.5
The Blazers need this one badly as they have struggled on the road. They get a T-Wolves team tonight that is struggling without their star and one that the Blazers have owned. Minnesota is just 3-13 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, losing by an average score of 95.3 to 104.9 in these spots. Minnesota is also 4-14 ATS as a home underdog this season. Portland is 8-2 SU and ATS in its last 10 versus Minnesota. Bet the Blazers. |
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02-26-09 | Memphis v. UAB +4.5 | 71-60 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
4* Major Conference USA Game of the Week (ESPN 2)on UAB +4.5
UAB lost by just 1 point at home to a loaded Memphis team last season. I like Blazers to end Memphis' Conference USA winning streak tonight. While Memphis is 10-2 away from home, it is just 5-7 ATS in those games and is clearly being overvalued here. UAB is a perfect 12-0 at home this season and will be more jacked up for this game than any other all year. The Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or less, and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games. Take the points. |
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02-26-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Houston Rockets +3 | 74-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA on TNT Game of the Week on Houston Rockets +3
The public is all over the Cavs tonight and that is going to get them burnt. Houston is 10-2 SU and 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 home games against the Cavs. Houston is on fire, having won 5 in a row, and is 23-6 at home this season. This is a statement game for the Rockets to show the rest of the league that they will not be a pushover come playoff time. The Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Houston and 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings overall. Houston is also 15-5 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. A tough Rockets home team will take it to a Cavs team that hasn't looked unstoppable on the road lately. Take the points. |
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02-26-09 | Minnesota v. Illinois -7.5 | Top | 41-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Blowout of the Week on Illinois -7.5
Minnesota murdered Illinois to the tune of 59-36 at home a month ago. Watch the tables turn tonight. Illinois is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 home games in this series and will be out for blood here. Illinois is 10-1 ATS off a close road win by 3 points or less since 1997, winning by an average score of 72.1 to 61.9 in these spots. Minnesota is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 and 0-6 ATS in its last 6 Big Ten road games. The Golden Gophers are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings. I like Illinois big tonight. |
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02-25-09 | UNLV v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Bailout Game of the Year on Utah -4.5
Utah is the better team and I like the Utes to get the job done in this revenge game. The Utes have lost 7 straight since going down at UNLV and will be out for blood tonight! Utah is 25-6 ATS after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more since 1997, winning in these spots by an average score of 72.0 to 55.8. The Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Lay the number! |
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02-25-09 | Orlando Magic -2 v. New York Knicks | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NBA Game of the Night on Magic -2
After a poor performance against Chicago last night, expect the Magic to bounce back strong against the defensively challenged Knicks. Orlando has no trouble playing uptempo hoops and will outscore the Knicks tonight. Orlando is 12-2 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season, winning these games by an average score of 108.4 to 97.6. Orlando is also 15-3 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Lay the number. |
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02-25-09 | Connecticut v. Marquette -1 | 93-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Major ESPN Game of the Month on Marquette -1
The UConn Huskies have not been the same team without Dyson and that's why Marquette gets them at home tonight. Why has Marquette been so effective in the Big East this season? They give teams quick 3 and 4 guard lineups that the bigger teams of the Big East don't matchup well against. Same story tonight. The Golden Eagles know they need this one at home if they are going to have a shot at winning the league as they go to Louisville and Pitt next. The Eagles are a perfect 16-0 at home this season and they will really go after this one to prove that they are legit. With Dyson's injury, odds makers have not made any adjustments because the public perception of the huskies is so strong. The result has been 3 straight ATS losses for UConn. The Golden Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Marquette! |
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02-25-09 | Va Commonwealth v. James Madison +2.5 | 71-52 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
4* Major 25-0 ATS Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Month on James Madison +2.5
I love JM in the home dog role tonight. The Dukes played VCU to a 5 point game on the road 2 weeks ago and will be ready to return the favor tonight. The Dukes are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 while VCU is just 2-7 ATS in its last 9. JM is 11-4 ATS as an underdog this season and 12-4 ATS against conference opponents this season. The Dukes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Colonial Athletic Association, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. We'll take this 25-0 ATS Angle to the bank. |
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02-24-09 | Charlotte Bobcats +7 v. Phoenix Suns | 102-112 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
3* NBA Road Warrior on Bobcats +7
The Bobcats were embarrassed at Houston 2 nights ago. I expect much better from them in Phoenix tonight as Boris Diaw and Raja Bell return to the desert to show the Suns what they are missing out on. While the Bobcats are just 6-19 on the road, they are 15-10 ATS in those games. The Suns are just 10-17 ATS at home this season. Charlotte crushed the Suns 98-76 at home earlier this season and that is significant because the Suns are just 1-9 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite this season, losing by an average score of 98.7 to 107.0 in these spots. Phoenix is also just 4-17 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. Life without Amare Stoudemire did not treat the Suns well Sunday and it will hurt not having him on the floor again here. Take the Bobcats! |
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02-24-09 | Florida +4 v. LSU | Top | 75-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
5* SEC Game of the Year (ESPN) on Florida +4
The LSU Tigers have won 8 in a row and that has lifted this number. I strongly feel that Florida is the better team and I will gladly take it catching points tonight. The Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings and LSU has been the type of favorite to break your heart over and over again as it is just 17-37-1 ATS in its last 55 games as a favorite. The Fighting Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Gators are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. I'll take Nick Calathas and company to pull off the upset tonight. My SEC GOTY. Good Luck. |
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02-24-09 | Orlando Magic v. Chicago Bulls +3 | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Deadly Dog of the Week on Bulls +3
The Bulls are playing their best ball of the season right now, having won 7 of their last 11 SU and are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12. The Bulls are 15-11 at home so they have more than been holding their own in the United Center all season. In addition, the Magic embarrassed the Bulls last time they visited and that puts Chicago in a big revenge spot tonight. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. I'll take the points! |
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02-24-09 | Pittsburgh v. Providence +8 | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
4* Major Public Massacre of the Week on Providence +8
With Pitt wearing the No. 1 target tag again, look for the Friars to give the Panthers all they want and more. This is the last home game of the season for Providence and that means that the fans and players alike will be jacked up for this one on a higher level than any other game, especially after their poor showing against Notre Dame last time out. Providence is 8-7 in the conference and this is the type of win that can get it off the bubble and into the dance. Providence is 12-4 at home this season and I look for a little magic tonight. Take the points! |
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02-23-09 | New Orleans Hornets v. Sacramento Kings +7.5 | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference GOTY on Kings +7.5
The Hornets have lost 5 of their last 6 on the road. Those losses include one to Minnesota and one to Memphis. Their lone road win during this stretch was a 2-point narrow escape against the Thunder. The Kings have covered the spread in 3 of their last 4. Returning home off a blowout road loss puts them in great position to bounce back tonight. At just 13-13 on the road this season and 10-5-1 ATS, the Hornets have not earned this kind of road respect, but the books have given it to them because, just as they figured, the public has jumped all over the Hornets. The Kings have dominated the Hornets at home, going 13-2 SU and 11-3-1 ATS since 1996. Even over the last few seasons when the Hornets have been the better team, the Kings are 3-1 SU and ATS at home. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game this season, actually losing by an average score of 97.9 to 98.3 in this spot. The Hornets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings which means that the Hornets are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and the home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take the points but we may not even need them as the Kings have an excellent chance to win this one outright. |
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02-23-09 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -3 | 87-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Oklahoma -3
Returning home off its first Big 12 loss of the season, I expect the Sooners to put a beating on KU tonight. The Jayhawks have exceeded expectations thus far this season, but a big reason for that is because the Big 12 is down and because the Jayhawks have taken care of business at home. The Jayhawks have struggled on the road against quality opponents all season, losing at Syracuse, Arizona, Michigan State, and Missouri. OU is a perfect 15-0 at home this season. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the number. |
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02-23-09 | Coll Charleston +2.5 v. Tennessee Chat | 86-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
4* Major Monday Night NCAAB BEST BET on Charleston +2.5
Charleston is 10-3 on the road this season and I like it to Chattanooga tonight. The key in this game is Charleston |
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02-22-09 | Wake Forest v. Duke -6.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* ACC Game of the Month (FSN) on Duke -6.5
Duke needs this one badly after losses to its last 4 high quality opponents (Wake Forest, Clemson, UNC, Boston College). The loss at Wake especially hurt as a blow coverage on a last second in-bounds play allowed Wake to slip to the goal for a win. This one is all about revenge for Duke and I have not doubt in my mind that the rout will be on today. Duke is a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS at home against Wake since 1997 and the Cameron Crazies will be roaring today. The Home team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings and the Favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Wake is not much for road games and is just 5-16 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997, losing by an average score of 71.2 to 84.5 in these spots. Take the points. |
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02-22-09 | West Virginia v. Rutgers +10 | 74-56 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Rutgers +10
I like the Scarlet Knights in the home dog role here today. They have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6, showing that this is a much improved team. Rutgers lost at Providence and at Nova by 10 in each of its last 2 games. Now back at home, I expect the Knights to go after a win. WVU is 0-7 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Scarlet Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Take the points. |
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02-22-09 | Villanova v. Syracuse -2.5 | 89-86 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
3* Top 25 SMASH (CBS) on Syracuse -2.5
Syracuse has had a week off to get ready for this one. Combine that with the fact that the Orange will be out for revenge after getting kicked at Villanova and you've got yourself a Cuse team capable of a blowout. The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Cuse is 15-2 at home this season and I like the Orange to handle another opponent on their home floor today. |
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02-21-09 | New Orleans Hornets v. Utah Jazz -7 | 88-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Jazz -7
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Utah is rolling and it has had the Hornets number. No way New Orleans can hang against one of the best home teams in the NBA after a tough OT loss against the Lakers last night. New Orleans is 2-11 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by an average score of 89.8 to 98.7. Utah is 15-2 ATS in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons, winning in this situation by an average score of 108.1 to 92. Lay the number. |
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02-21-09 | Oklahoma v. Texas -1 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
5* Big 12 Game of the Year (ESPN) on Texas -1
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. It hasn't been quite the season we expected from the Longhorns, but the talent is still there and it will have the motivation today. Oklahoma has had more than a few narrow escapes on the road this season and this is one I don't see them getting out of alive. The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Texas, 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less, and 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games as a road underdog. The Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Texas will be out to avenge an earlier season loss to Oklahoma and also to avenge a poor performance last time out against Texas A&M. Take the Longhorns. |
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02-21-09 | Washington U v. USC -2 | 60-51 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
3* Pac-10 SMASH on USC -2
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. USC is 13-1 at home this season while the Huskies are only 5-6 on the road. The Favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings and you have to like how good USC is against the number on Saturdays at 12-4 ATS their last 16. Lay the points. |
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02-21-09 | Utah State +5 v. Saint Marys CA | 64-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Major Bracket Buster GOTY (ESPN 2) on Utah State +5
Consensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. I have to take the points here with the better team. Utah State is a superb road team at 10-1 this season. It is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the West Coast Conf. The Aggies are also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. Take the points! |
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02-21-09 | Marquette v. Georgetown -3.5 | 78-72 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Major Big East Game of the Week on Georgetown -3.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Interesting line here with the unranked Hoyas favored by 3.5. Odds makers are tipping their hand. Marquette has struggled on the road this season, with all of its losses coming away from home, and will bite the dust here. Plays on a favorite (GEORGETOWN) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 23-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the number. |
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02-20-09 | Oklahoma City Thunder +9 v. Phoenix Suns | 118-140 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NBA Public Massacre of the Week on Thunder +9
The Suns run up the score on the Clippers in back-to-back games and the public is in love with them again. Odds makers are looking to score big off of that here. The Thunder are not the same pushover they were early in the season and Kevin Durant is playing some very confident basketball. Prior to the All-Star break, the Thunder played the Lakers to a 7 point game and they played New Orleans to a 2 point game after it. Plays against any team (PHOENIX) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against division rivals, on Friday nights are 24-4 ATS since 1996. The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Phoenix and the Underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Suns are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 Friday games and 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win. The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Take the Thunder. |
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02-20-09 | Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets -3.5 | Top | 86-93 | Win | 101 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Southwest Division GOTY (ESPN) on Rockets -3.5
Houston is 20-6 at home this season and it owes the Mavs a huge defeat tonight. Dallas has had its way with the Rockets recently but I don't see that happening here as the Rockets are primed and ready for revenge. Here's the other key: Houston is 24-5 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 98.3 to 87.6. The Rockets are outstanding defensively on their home floor and I expect them to give the Mavs fits tonight. |
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02-20-09 | Illinois State +2.5 v. Niagara | 56-70 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Bracket Buster BOMB on Illinois State +2.5
Plain and simple, Illinois State is better and it will not mess up this opportunity to prove just how much better on national TV. It is a down year for the MO Valley and there is still no comparison between it and the MAAC. Outside of Siena, the MAAC does not have much to offer and that will be on center stage here tonight. While Niagara's record looks good, the key is that it has not beaten a team with an RPI higher than 100 all season. In fact, the Purple Eagles are 0-3 in those games, losing by an average of 12 points. Illinois State is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons. It has also covered the number in 3 straight. Illinois State wins this one outright. |
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02-19-09 | St Bonaventure +3 v. George Washington | Top | 62-90 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
5* 32-0 ATS Monster Line Mistake on St. Bonaventure +3
The public has ignorantly climbed on board the home favorite here, neglecting the fact that the Bonnies have 6 more wins on the season and a better road record than GW has at home. The Bonnies are 8-0 ATS in road lined games this season, 7-0 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season, 7-0 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season, and 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Colonials are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Bonnies win this one OUTRIGHT! |
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02-19-09 | Western Kentucky v. Arkansas LR -2 | 78-69 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB System Play BOMB on Ark LR -2
Little Rock is playing superb hoops, having won 10 of its last 11 games SU. It is also on a 9-1 ATS run. The Trojans have also had this game circled for quite some time as they will be looking for revenge after the beating they took at WKU earlier in the season. WKU's blowout win over LR was a huge fluke as the Hilltoppers are not as good a team as they were a season ago with just 2 starters returning. The Trojans are a much better team than a season ago when they won 20 games with all 5 starters back. Plays on a favorite revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent are 52-23 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, the Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Plus, the Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet the Trojans. |
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02-18-09 | New Jersey Nets +8 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* NBA UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR on Nets +8
The Nets came out flat in their first game following the All-Star break. Now it will be Dallas' turn to come out flat tonight in its first game after the break. There will be no trouble for Devin Harris getting up for a game against his former team as he dropped 41 on them the last time they faced off. Coming off a bad game last night, I expect Harris to be phenomenal. While Dallas is 17-8 SU at home, it is just 8-17 ATS and it gets a Nets team that is 17-10 ATS on the road this season here. Here's the key: NJ is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog this season, winning by 4.8 ppg in this spot. The Mavericks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest and the Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. Bet the Nets tonight. |
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02-18-09 | Butler -5 v. Wisc Milwaukee | 60-63 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Blowout of the Week on Butler -5
After losing to lowly Loyola Chicago, Butler will be out for blood tonight. The Bulldogs have already trounced Wis-Mil by 30 points this season and they will take down the Panthers by double digits again here. Butler is 9-1 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 69.2 to 56.5 in these spots. This one will be all Butler! |
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02-18-09 | Fordham +25.5 v. Temple | 45-72 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Odds Maker Monster Miss on Fordham +25.5
This line has been elevated because Fordham lost by 35 last game to a very motivated Xavier team. Temple is not nearly as explosive as Xavier and has lost 2 of its last 3 to Fordham. It is going to be very tough for the Owls to get up for this one after a big win over Dequesne on the road. The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and road teams after 3 straight games or allowing 85 points or more are 27-7 ATS the last 5 years. Take the points! |
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02-17-09 | Ohio v. Kent State -6.5 | 51-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Kent State -6.5
Kent State is rolling, having won 6 in a row and it is a solid 9-3 at home this season while Ohio is just 3-10 on the road. Plus, Ohio has not won at Kent in 8 years. Ohio won the first meeting at home by 6 and I fully expect the Golden Flashes to return the favor tonight with a big win. Ohio is 0-8 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 55.1 to 70.0. Kent is 12-3 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent since 1997, winning in these spots by an average score of 71.8 to 60.5. Ohio is awful on the road, I mean awful. We'll take Kent in this one. |
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02-17-09 | Michigan State v. Purdue -2.5 | Top | 54-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
5* ESPN Super Tuesday Game of the Year on Purdue -2.5
2 games back of the Spartans in the Big Ten standings, Purdue needs this one badly if it wants to make a run for the title. Michigan State is undefeated on the road in Big Ten play and that only means it is due as the Spartans are yet to play their toughest competition in the league until tonight. Purdue has won 4 straight Big Ten home games by double digits, including a win by 14 over a Penn State team that defeated the Spartans. Purdue is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home versus Michigan State the last 2 seasons with a 24-point blowout win in 2007 as a 1.5-point favorite and a 6-point win last year as a 1.5-point favorite. In all, Purdue has covered the number in 4 straight in this series. Michigan State is 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. Purdue is 7-0 ATS in home games in February games over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS in home games off a road win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons, and 6-0 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Take Purdue! |
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02-16-09 | Texas v. Texas Aamp;M +2 | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Major ESPN Big Monday Game of the Month on Texas A&M +2
The Aggies are a staggering 75-11 the last 5 seasons at home, pitching a shutout against the Horns in those games and Texas isn't exactly the same team it has been this year. The key factor in this one is revenge. Texas won at home by 9 points and I like the Aggies to return the favor here. A&M is 6-0 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 75 to 64.8. A&M has defeated Texas by 18 and 17 points in each of its last two home games against the Horns. We'll take A&M tonight! |