Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-03-10 | Michigan State v. Butler -1 | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
3* Final Four SMASH on Butler -1
If Butler can beat Syracuse and Kansas State, it can certainly take care of a Michigan State team playing without its best player. Butler is very experienced and very disciplined on both ends of the floor. Defensively, the Bulldogs have held each of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents under 60 points. Offensively, the Bulldogs take good care of the basketball and they rarely take a bad shot. Playing smart, disciplined basketball has gotten the Bulldogs here, and I believe it will take them into the championship game. With this game taking place so close to Butler's campus, the Bulldogs will have the crowd on their side, and that can be huge in a game like this, which figures to be a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair. Butler has won 24 straight games, proving how successful its brand of basketball can be. Izzo is a great motivator, but I just can't see him sneaking past yet another opponent without Kalin Lucas. He's going to miss his most clutch performer in this game. Brad Stevens has made his boys believe. The Bulldogs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten and I look for this trend to continue. |
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04-02-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers -4 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Lakers -4
This game reminds me a lot of last night's situation with the Nuggets and the Blazers. We played on the Nuggets -5 at home against the red hot Blazers even though the Nuggets had been struggling on the road, and it paid off. Enough was enough. The Nuggets fed off the energy of their home crowd and made a statement with a blowout win. I look for LA to do the same tonight against a Jazz team they have defeated 13 straight times at home. Kobe is fed up with how the team has been playing and I expect him to put them on his back this evening. The Jazz are just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 road meetings with the Lakers. The Lakers are 32-5 at home where they are winning by 9.4 ppg. Off an embarrassing loss to the Hawks, look for them to respond here. |
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04-02-10 | Atlanta Hawks +5.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 88-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Hawks +5.5
The Hawks are extremely confident heading into this one after a convincing win over the Lakers. After getting punished in the playoffs by Cleveland last season, the Hawks have played the Cavs tough in two meetings this season but they have come up short in each. Look for the third time to be the charm for the Hawks tonight. The Cavs have struggled without Anderson Varejao, who won't be at full strength if he does go tonight. He is their energy guy and they have looked lethargic at times in each of their last two games without him in the lineup. Atlanta has played up to the level of its competition this season. In fact, it is 11-2 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 91.2. The Hawks are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Cavaliers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Hawks and the points tonight. |
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04-01-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets -5 | Top | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Nuggets -5
It's gut check time for the Nuggets tonight. They return home after a 5-game road trip where they were brutal and I fully expect them to make a statement. The Nuggets are 30-6 at home on the season where they are winning by 9.4 points on average. The home team has dominated this matchup to the tune of 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Denver and 10-25-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings overall. The Nuggets are 52-25-3 ATS in their last 80 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Lay the points. |
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04-01-10 | Orlando Magic -1 v. Dallas Mavericks | 97-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Magic -1
I'll take the rested Magic in this revenge spot against a Mavs team feeling the effects of a tough overtime game in Memphis last night. After losing to the Mavs at home in the last meeting, the Magic will be ready to return the favor here. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Mavericks are an atrocious 5-23 ATS in their last 28 Thursday games and a pathetic 5-26-1 ATS in their last 32 home games. The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas. Take Orlando. |
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04-01-10 | North Carolina v. Dayton -2.5 | 68-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
3* NIT Championship SMASH (ESPN) on Dayton -2.5
The Flyers are the more experienced team and that is huge this time of year. They are also the better defensive team, and playing solid defense is another must if you're going to win any type of championship. It is certainly worth noting that UNC is only 1-7 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or less points per game after, 15+ games this season, losing to these teams by an average score of 62 to 72.9. When odds makers have put Carolina in the underdog role, it's usually for a reason as the Heels command so much betting attention. In fact, the Tar Heels are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog and only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. In addition, the Flyers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Dayton has taken this tournament very seriously and I look for its experience and defense to be the difference. |
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03-31-10 | Va Commonwealth v. Saint Louis +1.5 | 71-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
4* Major CBI Cash Cow on Saint Louis +1.5
Saint Louis has been incredible on its home floor this season. The Billikens are 18-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in home line games. The defense has been absolutely dominant as the Billikens are holding their opponents to just 57.5 points per game on their home floor. After losing Game 1 of the CBI Championship Series, I look for Saint Louis to bounce back strong on its home floor tonight. Saint Louis is a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, winning these games by an average score of 66.8 to 59.8. Over the last 3 seasons, the Billikens are an outstanding 14-4 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 64.1 to 60.3. There's no way that Saint Louis should be the underdog on its home floor tonight. Bet the Billikens. |
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03-31-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Boston Celtics -3 | 109-104 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NBA Motivational Mismatch on Celtics -3
Even though Paul Pierce is questionable tonight, I still think the Celtics will be motivated enough to get the job done in this spot regardless if he plays. The good news is that Boston will get Kendrick Perkins back. Boston just endured one of its worst defeats of the season at the hands of San Antonio Sunday. The Spurs held the Celtics to a season low 73 points in that contest. If that doesn't get Boston motivated, nothing will. I firmly believe the Celtics will show up ready to put a hurtin' on the Thunder tonight. OKC just played last night so Boston will certainly have the advantage in terms of fresh legs. It is worth noting that the Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 0 days rest. The Thunder have dropped 4 in a row ATS in this series and are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 trips to Boston. Also, plays on home teams off an upset loss by 15 points or more, playing with 2 days rest, are 27-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 18-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams in this situation are winning by 9.6 points on average. Take Boston. |
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03-31-10 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Toronto Raptors -9.5 | 92-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Raptors -9.5
The Clippers are ready to call it a season. They have reduced the minutes of All-Star Chris Kaman to open up playing time for some of the younger guys. Plus, Baron Davis is expected to miss the next two games with back spasms. Once Camby was traded away, it sent a message to the team that management was already planning ahead for next season. As a result, the Clippers have lost 12 of their last 14 games, and 10 of those losses have come by 10 or more points. The Raptors will be the more motivated team this evening as they look to distance themselves from the Bulls in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Even at full strength, the Raptors are a team that the Clippers have really struggled against. Toronto has won the last 3 meetings by scores of 97-75, 100-76 and 104-89. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Toronto. Take the Raptors. |
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03-30-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Chicago Bulls +3.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
3* Tuesday Night NBA SMASH on Bulls +3.5
The Bulls have had Phoenix's number. Why? Because the young athletic Derrick Rose has been a nightmare matchup for Steve Nash. In 3 straight double digits wins over the Suns, with 2 of those even coming in Phoenix, Rose has held Nash to just 9.7 points and 7.3 assists while forcing him into an average of 5.0 turnovers. The Bulls will be extremely motivated tonight as they are battling the Raptors for the final playoff spot in the East. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. With Nash facing a tough matchup, and not at 100 percent, I look for the Bulls, who are fighting for the playoffs, to get the job done tonight. |
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03-30-10 | Dayton v. Mississippi +1.5 | Top | 68-63 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* NIT Game of the Year on Ole Miss +1.5
Dayton is a good ball club, but I really believe Ole Miss is the better team from the better conference. I give the Rebels a big edge here because this game is being played on a neutral court. Ole Miss has been the better team when playing away from home this season. Dayton is 7-10 SU and 7-9-1 ATS when playing away from home this season. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS when playing away from home this season. Dayton has struggled with teams that can really score the basketball, losing 2 of 3 to Xavier this season because it lacked that little extra offensive punch. Well, Ole Miss can certainly score it. The Rebels average 8.7 more ppg than the Flyers do. We find ourselves in a unique, highly profitable situation tonight as the Rebels are an impressive 14-4 ATS after allowing 75 or more points in consecutive games under coach Kennedy, winning these games by an average score of 77.1 to 69.5. The Rebs are also on a 31-15 ATS run after scoring 80 points or more in a game under coach Kennedy, winning these games by an average score of 79.4 to 72.0. We also can't overlook the fact that Dayton is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 neutral site games and just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 neutral site contests as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Rebels are an impressive 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog. I feel strongly enough that Ole Miss will win this one outright that I have made it my strongest play in the NIT this season. Best of Luck. |
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03-29-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. New Jersey Nets +8.5 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
3* Monday NBA *Underdog Shocker* on Nets +8.5
This is a huge letdown spot for the Spurs after a pair of big time wins over Cleveland and Boston. In fact, San Antonio is 0-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, actually losing in these spots by an average score of 89.1 to 97.7. The Spurs are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Nets need one victory in their final nine games to avoid matching the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record in NBA history so I expect them to really play hard tonight, especially after such a poor performance Saturday. I would not be surprised if New Jersey wins this one outright so we'll take the points. |
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03-29-10 | St Louis +9 v. Va Commonwealth | 56-68 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
3* CBI Tourney SMASH on Saint Louis +9
The knock on Saint Louis earlier this season was that it wasn't a very good away from home. This certainly changed as the season went on as the Billikens won their last 4 true road games. Because Saint Louis plays such solid defense, it has lost by 9 or fewer points in 9 of 10 true road games this season. Saint Louis is all about defense and slowing down the tempo on offense. As a result, St. Louis is a perfect 10-0 ATS after 3 straight games where it and its opponent have scored 70 points or less this season, actually winning in these spots by an average score of 67.6 to 62.1. The Billikens are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. VCU is a good home team, but it will see a defense unlike it has seen in a long time tonight. Take the points. |
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03-28-10 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -5 | 121-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout on LA Clippers -5
It was already going to be difficult for the Warriors to play this back-to-back against a rested Clippers squad, but it will likely be even more difficult as Monte Ellis is listed as doubtful. Plus, this one is personal for the Clippers, who were embarrassed by 30 points the last time these teams faced off last month. The Warriors haven't had a lot of luck in the southern part of California. In fact, they are only 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles against the Clippers. And the Clippers have proven that they are worthy to lay points at home as they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Golden State is 4-30 on the road this season where it is losing by 9.3 points on average. Plus, plays on any team revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more, well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, are 29-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Clippers. |
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03-28-10 | Baylor +5 v. Duke | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Baylor +5
We saw Baylor feed off of the crowd in Friday's impressive win over Saint Mary's as many Baylor fans made the trip to Houston. I expect the crowd to play a big factor in this one as well. Duke was able to get past Purdue because it dominated the boards, but it won't have the same success against a Baylor squad that is very long and very athletic up front. Duke has proven to be fade material in the tournament when in the small chalk. In fact, the Blue Devils are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. In addition, Baylor is 8-2 ATS when playing top caliber teams who outscore their opponents by 12 or more points per game this season. Baylor is actually defeating these teams 7.5 points on average. Baylor matches up with Duke very well. In fact, Duke is going to have a tougher time matching up with Baylor. We saw Duke struggle a couple times this season against a big Georgia Tech team. It is also worth noting that Baylor shoots the 3 a lot better than Duke. The Bears have shot it as a 40.9% clip outside their home gym while Duke has only shot it at 34.3%. Take Baylor and the points. |
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03-28-10 | Tennessee -1.5 v. Michigan State | 69-70 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
4* Major Elite 8 Early Annihilator on Tennessee -1.5
The Spartans were able to survive Northern Iowa without Kalin Lucas because the Panthers are a defensive team that packs it in. The absence of Lucas will be felt much more strongly in this one as Tennessee likes to pressure its opponents all over the floor. If Tennessee can beat Evan Turner and Ohio State, it can take care of a Michigan State squad minus its best player. The Vols are long and athletic and very active on the offensive glass. I just can't see Tennessee going down here unless it shoots an absurdly low field goal percentage. The Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Right now, Tennessee is the better team, and I'll take that team laying a small number this afternoon. |
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03-27-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. New Orleans Hornets +3 | 112-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Hornets +3
There is usually plenty of energy in the arena on Saturday nights and the Hornets are a team that feeds off that energy. In fact, New Orleans is on a 29-14 ATS tear in Saturday home games. It is also worth noting that the Hornets are 55-27-3 ATS in their last 85 Saturday games period. New Orleans is perennially a good home team. It is usually rare to find the Hornets catching points on their home floor, but they have been money in the bank when they do. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Hornets are also an outstanding 25-8 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll take the Hornets in the home dog role tonight. |
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03-27-10 | West Virginia +4.5 v. Kentucky | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
3* Elite 8 Perfect Angle Power Play on West Virginia +4.5
Kentucky has looked unstoppable in this tournament, but it hasn't faced a defense like West Virginia's yet. The Mountaineers have held 6 straight opponents under 60 points, and they have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to under 40% shooting. This defensive run is rather significant when you consider that WVU is a perfect 6-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Kentucky just held Cornell to 45 points, but it is on a 0-8 ATS after slide allowing 50 points or less. WVU is on a 21-4 ATS run in post-season tournament games and on a 15-2 ATS run in NCAA tournament games, including 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. With as good as West Virginia is defensively, they have what it takes to pull off the upset. I'll take the points in a game that should go right down to the wire. |
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03-27-10 | Butler v. Kansas State -4 | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
5* Elite 8 Game of the Year on K-State -4
Butler is a really good team, but their tournament run comes to an end this afternoon. After getting a major scare from Xavier, and knowing that Butler knocked out Syracuse, expect the more talented Wildcats to show up that much more focused today. This time of year, a couple things really matter, experience and good guard play. Both teams have experience on their side, but K-State has the overwhelming advantage at the guard positions. No one has had an answer for Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen in this tournament, and I don't think Butler will be the team to break the mold. The Wildcats are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Horizon League. Lay the points with K-State. |
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03-26-10 | New York Knicks v. Phoenix Suns -10.5 | 96-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
3* Friday Night NBA Blowout on Suns -10.5
The Suns have plenty of motivation to run up the score on the Knicks tonight. First off, they are fighting for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference so they can get home court in the first round of the playoffs. Secondly, they will be out for blood here after getting crushed by a score of 99-126 at New York the last time these two teams met. Having not played since Monday, I expect the Suns to be very fresh and energetic this evening. Plus, plays on favorites of 10 or more points, after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent that has gone under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, are 25-5 ATS since 1996 and 13-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in these spots have been favored by 12.2 points on average and are winning by an average of 17.9. Take the Suns. |
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03-26-10 | Northern Iowa v. Michigan State | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* Friday Sweet 16 *BEST BET* on Michigan State pk
I know Michigan State is without Kalin Lucas, and Chris Allen and Delvon Roe are banged up, but this is still a big, physical, squad that has been here and done that before. And this squad is playing for a coach that has been here and done that a lot. Northern Iowa is a good basketball team, but the fact that it relies so heavily on perimeter scoring will finally catch up with the Panthers tonight. Expect the Spartans to kill the Panthers on the boards. Michigan State is 10-1 ATS when playing away from home after a game where it outrebounding an opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons. I've grabbed the Spartans at a pick, but they opened as a 1.5-point favorite and are still a 1-point fave at many books. The fact that they opened as a fave could prove to be quite crucial as they are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or less points and 21-6-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less period. The Panthers started to really pee down their legs when Kansas started pressuring them late in the game. Expect coach Izzo to take note of that and apply the pressure much sooner. Also, expect the Spartans to really look to hammer the ball inside to take advantage of their physical bodies. We'll pound Michigan State. |
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03-26-10 | St Mary's CA v. Baylor -4.5 | 49-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
4* Major Sweet 16 Perfect Angle Power Play on Baylor -4.5
Look for the length and athleticism of Baylor to be too much for Saint Mary's tonight. The key to beating Saint Mary's is keeping Omar Samhan in check, and I believe Baylor's long and athletic front line guys will be able to do just that. Saint Mary's is a team that can hurt its opponents with the 3-point shot, but Baylor has really excelled against these type of teams. In fact, Baylor is on a 7-0 ATS run vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams making 41% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Gaels, meanwhile, are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog. With this one being played in Houston, Texas, the Bears will have the support of the crowd as well. We'll lay the points with Baylor. |
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03-25-10 | Dallas Mavericks +3 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 89-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Mavericks +3
This is a revenge game for Dallas, who has lost both previous meetings with the Blazers this season. From a point spread perspective, the Mavs have been at their best on the road, especially here recently. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Dallas is also 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Trail Blazers have struggled to cover the spread against the NBA's elite. In fact, they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning rate above 60%. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Bet the Mavs. |
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03-25-10 | Cornell +9 v. Kentucky | 45-62 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
3* Sweet 16 SMASH on Cornell +9
The experienced Cornell squad has the advantage of playing with nothing to lose, and that makes this team very dangerous. This young Kentucky team will be feeling all the pressure. Plus, the Big Red won't be lacking any confidence heading in as they have already battled both Syracuse and Kansas this season. I feel Cornell is catching plenty of points tonight when you consider how well it takes care of the basketball and how well it shoots the ball from 3-point range. We're talking a team that shot a ridiculous 45.1% from 3 on the road this season. I know Kentucky travels well, but I expect the Carrier Dome crowd to be rallying behind nearby Cornell in this one. Kentucky's blowout wins in the first two rounds are the reason why it is this heavily favored at this stage of the game, but history tells us this is the best time to fade the Wildcats as they are on a 2-17 ATS slide after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points. Take Cornell and the points. |
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03-25-10 | Xavier +5 v. Kansas State | Top | 96-101 | Push | 0 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Xavier +5
When these two teams met earlier this season, K-State won on its home floor by 15 points over Xavier. That was a payback game. The Wildcats were hungry to avenge a 26-point defeat to Xavier in the previous meeting. Now it's time for Xavier to have it revenge on a neutral floor. Playing teams like N. Texas and BYU in the early rounds isn't the same preparation as playing teams like Minnesota and Pitt. I look for Xavier to be the more intense, physical team tonight. I love the way the Musketeers compete no matter who they are playing. That's a big reason why they are 17-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. You also have to like the fact that Xavier is 8-1 ATS in NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 4.7 points. The Musketeers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games as an underdog and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. I still don't feel this Xavier team is getting the respect it deserves. Take the points. |
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03-25-10 | Butler +7 v. Syracuse | 63-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
3* Sweet 16 Public Massacre on Butler +7
Odds makers know that everyone and their brother is going to be on Syracuse here after watching the Orange crush Gonzaga and Butler struggle with Murray State. With that in mind, they have given Butler plenty of cushion to cover this number as they feel it will be a close game. And I agree entirely. Experience is crucial this time of year and Butler has more of it with all 5 starters back from last year's team. This Butler team plays smart, and because of that, it just doesn't get blown out. Right away, I love the fact that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after playing a game where both teams scored 65 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season, are 108-57 ATS the last 5 seasons and 76-34 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams in this situation are only losing by 2.9 points on average. This system shows a direct correlation between experience and a slow style of play as a successful formula for winning when catching points. The Bulldogs are also an impressive 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog. We'll go against the grain and take the points with the Bulldogs tonight. |
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03-24-10 | Princeton +4.5 v. St Louis | 59-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
3* Wednesday NCAAB Top Side on Princeton +4.5
Princeton has what it takes to win this game straight up so I will take the points with the Tigers tonight. Both teams play halfcourt hoops so we can expect this to be a close game, and I'll take the points in this situation every time. Plus, based on the low total set for this game, odds makers feel points will be at a premium. So once again, I like our side where we are catching a couple field goals. Princeton is 18-6 ATS in all lined games this season so it is one of the very best covering teams in the country. It is also a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), after 15 or more games, over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. We'll take the points. |
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03-24-10 | Houston Rockets +8 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 104-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
3* Wednesday Night NBA SMASH on Rockets +8
The Thunder are struggling a little bit, having lost 3 of their last 4, and I expect them to get a test from a very resilient Houston Rockets squad tonight. The Rockets are coming off a loss in Chicago, but they have proven to be a good bounce back team from a point spread perspective. In fact, the Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Thunder are much improved this season, but they haven't proven they can be trusted laying this many points. In fact, they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. They also haven't proven they can beat the Rockets. Houston has won 13 in a row against the OKC franchise. It is also worth noting that Houston is 15-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, actually exploding to win in these spots by 10.6 points on average. Take the points. |
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03-23-10 | Los Angeles Clippers +10 v. Dallas Mavericks | 96-106 | Push | 0 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Clippers +10
Dallas will be motivated in this spot following back-to-back defeats, but odds makers are asking too much of the Mavs to win by an 11-point margin, especially without fresh legs, having just played last night. The Clippers will be motivated, too, after a very poor showing against a lowly Kings team that was playing without Tyreke Evans. The performance prompted Baron Davis to call out his team. "There is no explanation for our performance. It was just a lack of effort," said Davis. I expect the Clippers to respond tonight. It likely won't mean a win, but it should mean a cover. Consider this: Dallas is 1-10 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season and 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points this season. Dallas is also 0-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season this season and 0-7 ATS in home games versus poor teams that are outscored by their opponents by 3 or more points per game in the 2nd half of the season this season. We'll take the points. |
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03-23-10 | Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons -3 | Top | 98-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
5* Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -3
The Pistons just fell in Indiana by 4 points on Friday so they will be hungry to return the favor at home tonight. That hunger should have grown after the Pistons turned in one of their worst performances of the season against the Cavs Sunday. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (line opened at -3.5) revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 37-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. a division opponent, off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival, are 32-11 ATS since 1996, including 11-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Indiana comes in having lost 9 straight road games with all of those losses coming by at least 4 points. In fact, the Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll lay the points with the Pistons. |
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03-23-10 | Texas Tech v. Mississippi -9 | 87-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Ole Miss -9
Ole Miss is a really good team, one that was certainly worthy of playing in the NCAA Tournament in my book. We're talking about a team that owns a 12-point win over Kansas State this season. That same K-State squad beat Texas Tech convincingly by 19 points. Home court is huge tonight as Texas Tech is just 4-9 in true road games this season. This number may appear steep at first glance, but consider that the Rebels are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, the Red Raiders are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll lay the points. |
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03-22-10 | Memphis Grizzlies -2 v. Sacramento Kings | 102-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
3* Monday NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Grizzlies -2
With Tyreke Evans not at 100 percent (listed as questionable), I just don't see the Kings getting the job done tonight against a more talented Memphis squad that is still hanging on to its playoff hopes. Memphis has really played well on the road of late, winning 7 of its last 8 SU & ATS. The Grizzlies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Kings are just 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less. We'll lay the number. |
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03-22-10 | Wisc. Green Bay v. St Louis -7 | 62-68 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
3* 34-0 ATS CBI SMASH on St. Louis -7
St. Louis is on a perfect 8-0 ATS run in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games into the season since 1997. It is also 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. In addition, St. Louis is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) under coach Majerus. The staple of Majerus led teams has been defense and that is certainly the case with this team. So it comes as no surprise that Majerus is 11-0 ATS in home games after game where his team allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less in all games he has coached since 1997. The Billikens are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Meanwhile, the Phoenix are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number. |
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03-22-10 | Dayton +3.5 v. Cincinnati | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Dayton +3.5
Cincy may be 13-4 at home this season, but it is only 2-9 ATS in its home lined games. In fact, the Bearcats are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games dating back to last season. The Bearcats are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. In addition, Cincy is only 1-7 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game this season, only winning in these spots by 0.3 points on average. Cincy is also 0-7 ATS in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take the points. |
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03-21-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns -6 | 87-93 | Push | 0 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
3* Sunday Night NBA SMASH (ESPN) on Suns -6
Phoenix will be out for blood this evening as it tries to avenge 4 straight losses to the Blazers. I love the fact that plays against road teams, extremely well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 23-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. The road team has lost by 10.4 points on average in these spots. Also, Phoenix is 12-1 ATS versus teams allowing their opponents to shoot 46% or better from the floor in the 2nd half of the season this season, winning these games by an average score of 113.2 to 99.8. The Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for the Suns to have their revenge this evening. |
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03-21-10 | Texas A&M v. Purdue +2 | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tourney Public Massacre on Purdue +2
Everyone is on Texas A&M here, but I'll take an experienced Purdue team that marched on to the Sweet 16 a season ago in this spot. Purdue is the superior defensive team, only allowing 61 ppg this season, and it has proved to be deadly as a dog in this tournament. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Boilermakers are also 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Purdue played with a real chip on its shoulder in its first round game against Siena. The Boilermakers know that no one expects them to do anything without Robbie Hummel, and they are out to prove everyone wrong. I'll take Purdue. |
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03-21-10 | Xavier +1 v. Pittsburgh | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
3* SMASH on Xavier +1
Pitt knocked Xavier out of last year's NCAA Tournament with a 5-point win. I look for Xavier to return the favor here against a Pitt squad that isn't nearly as good this season. Xavier has made a living out of being competitive in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, the Musketeers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. Xavier is also 16-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 74.6 to 66.4, and 18-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last 2 seasons, defeating these teams by an average score of 75.5 to 63.6. Plus, Xavier has the best player on the floor in Jordan Crawford, and that never hurts. Take Xavier. |
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03-21-10 | Michigan State +1 v. Maryland | Top | 85-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
5* Sunday NCAA Tourney *BEST BET* on Michigan State +1
The experience of Kalin Lucas and company in these big games should keep the defending national runner-up marching on. Michigan State has proven to be a strong team on neutral courts. The Spartans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as an underdog and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less. Meanwhile, Maryland is just 10-22 ATS its last 32 as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less. Defense wins championships this time of year and Michigan State is the better defensive team, only allowing 63.8 ppg. Michigan State is also the best rebounding team in the nation in terms of rebounding margin. It outrebounds its opponents by 9.4 per game. I'll take the team with more tournament experience, the better defensive team and the better rebounding team today. |
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03-20-10 | Boston Celtics +4 v. Dallas Mavericks | 102-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Celtics +4
The Celtics just played last night, but I don't expect freshness to be an issue as they look to make a statement with a win over one of the best teams in the West tonight. In fact, Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing without any rest. Dallas has proven to be an awful chalk team this season, especially at home where it is only winning by 1.8 ppg this season. It's just hard to justify laying points here when you consider that the Mavericks are only 2-25-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite and the Celtics are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or less points. Prior to a January loss to the Mavs, Boston had won 4 straight in this series. That defeat will have the C's even more motivated this evening. Plus, the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Dallas. Take the Celtics and the points. |
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03-20-10 | Wake Forest +9.5 v. Kentucky | 60-90 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAA Tourney Dog of the Day on Wake Forest +9.5
Kentucky's good, but not good enough in my estimation to defeat a talented Wake Forest squad by 10 points on a neutral floor. Wake is 12-4 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, only losing in these spots by 1.0 ppg on average. Wake showed that it could deal with the size of Texas so I don't see Kentucky's size overpowering the Deacs in this one. Plus, playing a highly competitive first round game with a lot more intensity should be to the benefit of Wake as well. Wake has proven time and time against under coach Gaudio that it's going to play its best ball against the best competition. In fact, Wake is 17-4 ATS versus very good teams, outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game, after 15+ games under Gaudio, winning in these spots by an average score of 73.3 to 72.4. Look for Wake to give Kentucky a scare tonight! |
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03-20-10 | Ohio v. Tennessee -8 | Top | 68-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
5* 2010 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Tennessee -8
Beating a school like Georgetown is like winning the whole thing for a school like Ohio. Tennessee, on the other hand, has much bigger goals. Unfortunately for Ohio, their Cinderella run ends here. While it's not uncommon for some of these higher seeds to sneak up on a first round opponent, the cat is usually out of the bag come the second round. Expect Tennessee, which is a much better defensive team than Georgetown, to be ready. Ohio was able to score 97 points in its win over Georgetown while shooting a ridiculous 58.2% from the field. It would take a similar effort to beat the Vols today and I just don't see it happening. Defensively, the Vols are long and they are relentless. They only allow 64.9 ppg on 39.4% shooting. And after a lackluster offensive effort against San Diego State, I expect Tennessee to really kick things into high gear against a team that allowed Georgetown to shoot over 50% from the field. Expect a big letdown from Ohio today as the Vols march on with a double digit win. Best of Luck. |
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03-20-10 | St Mary's CA v. Villanova -4.5 | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
3* Early SMASH on Villanova -4.5
After getting a major scare from Robert Morris, expect Nova to roll in round 2. This is where the experience gained during last year's Final Four run takes over. The Gaels are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Villanova is 15-6 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 83.1 to 76.5. I also like the fact that Nova is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 7.9 points on average. I can't see Scottie Reynolds struggling again today after such a poor shooting performance in round one. Look for the Wildcats to move on with a win and cover. |
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03-19-10 | Louisville v. California | 62-77 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tourney *Crunch Time Bailout* on Louisville pk
If the Cards show up they should win this game, and one has to think they will after watching other Big East schools struggle Thursday. Plus, Cal has been dealt a tough hand with starter Omondi Amoke out serving a suspension. It's been an up and down season for the Cards, but they are certainly capable of making a run when you consider that they have defeated Syracuse twice this season. You also have to like the fact that the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Pac-10. The Golden Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. Louisville has made a Final Four and two Elite 8 |
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03-19-10 | New Mexico State v. Michigan State -13 | 67-70 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAA Tourney Friday Blowout on Michigan State -13
This is the time of year when Michigan State is at its best, and with all the upsets and close games on day one, you can bet Tom Izzo will have his team |
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03-19-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder -1 v. Toronto Raptors | 115-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
3* Friday Night NBA SMASH on Thunder -1
The Thunder will not be lacking any motivation tonight after seeing their five-game winning streak come to an end after blowing a 19-point lead against the Bobcats Wednesday. I expect a very big game from Kevin Durant tonight. After missing 17 of his 26 shots against the Bobcats, including all 7 of his 3-point attempts, he will enter tonight's contest with extreme focus. Plus, the Raptors are the worst defensive team in the East, allowing 105.9 ppg. The Raptors haven't won back-to-back games in a month so they will fight hard tonight. But when it's all said and done, I think it will be just too much Kevin Durant. Plus, Plays against home underdogs looking to avenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent, off a close home win by 3 points or less, are 22-4 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points. |
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03-19-10 | Siena v. Purdue -4 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
5* Friday NCAA Tourney *BEST BET* on Purdue -4
Purdue has heard a lot of analysts putting it on upset alert now that Robbie Hummel has been lost for the season, but I expect the Boilermakers to be motivated enough to shut all the doubters up in this one. Purdue will be further motivated by laying an egg against Minnesota in its last game. Siena has played well in the NCAA Tourney in recent years, but I'm not sold on this year's team. Siena was crushed by N. Iowa by 17 points and by Butler by 17 points as well, and I can assure you that this Purdue team is every bit as good as those two teams even without Hummel. It doesn't happen often so there isn't much data here, but it is still worth noting that the Boilermakers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss of more than 20 points. They are also 12-4 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more under coach Painter. But here's the clincher: plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 80%) are 19-2 ATS the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 1-0 ATS this season. Lay the points. |
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03-18-10 | San Diego State v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 59-62 | Push | 0 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Tennessee -3
In Tennessee, we have a team that has wins over both Kansas and Kentucky so we certainly know what it is capable of when at the top of its game. After getting completely embarrassed by Kentucky in the SEC tourney, I expect to see an extremely hungry and focused team. Right away, I love the fact that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (line opened at -4), a team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a loss to a conference rival, are 50-21 ATS since 1997, including 22-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like that the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. poor free throw shooting teams making 63% of their attempts or worse over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 83.9 to 70.4. I'll take a motivated Tennessee squad laying a small number in round one. |
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03-18-10 | Washington +2 v. Marquette | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
3* 1st Round Upset Alert on Washington +2
Look for No. 11 seed Washington to knock off No. 6 seed Marquette here. Washington enters the Tourney with tons of momentum, having won 7 straight. The impressive thing is that each of its last 6 wins came away from home. Marquette is not a team that is going to blow out many teams. It played a lot of close games this season. With that in mind, it's hard to justify laying points with the Golden Eagles. In fact, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Expect Quincy Pondexter to be the best player on the floor and for Washington to get the "W". |
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03-18-10 | Orlando Magic -2 v. Miami Heat | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Magic -2
I know the Magic are playing back-to-back, but last night's breezer against the Spurs hasn't exactly left them gasping for air. Orlando is the much deeper squad with a lot more fire power, and I expect it to take care of business tonight. After Miami won the season's first two meetings, the Magic responded with a 16-point blowout win late last month and I fully expect them to even the season series tonight. Plus, wins by the Heat in this series have been very rare in recent years as Orlando is 8-3 against Miami the last 3 seasons. I really think Miami is being overvalued at this price, especially when you consider that it is 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games this season, 5-16 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games straight up over the last 2 seasons and 6-19 ATS in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more since 1996. It's also nice to know that Orlando is 24-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the Magic. |
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03-18-10 | Florida +5 v. BYU | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Major Early Annihilator on Florida +5
Florida is excited to be back in the Big Dance and I expect the Gators to make the most of it. I know Florida had some pretty good players when it won back-to-back titles, but coach Billy Donovan deserves plenty of credit as well. He knows the type of preparation it takes to win Tourney games. He is a big reason why the Gators are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. As a matter of fact, BYU is on a 0-7 ATS slide in all post-season tournament games played away from home, losing these games by an average score of 64.4 to 74.2. Look for Florida to have an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset in this one. |
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03-17-10 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Los Angeles Clippers +5 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Major Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +5
The Bucks are playing good basketball, but we can't forget that they are 7 games below .500 on the road and the Clippers are still 3 games above .500 at home. Plus, the Bucks are 2-9-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and just 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup in Los Angeles. You also have to love the fact that plays on home underdogs, cold team failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, against an opponent that has covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, are 59-25 ATS since 1996, 20-7 ATS the last 5 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. We have seen 5.3-point underdog on average with this system and they are only losing by an average of 1.1 points. I also like that the Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. We'll take the home dog. |
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03-17-10 | Boston +7.5 v. Oregon State | 96-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Boston +7.5
Oregon State is a great against the spread team, and we've cashed in on the Beavers plenty this season, but now is the time to go against them. Oregon State really slows down the pace of the game. As a result, it is only averaging 59.7 ppg on the season. In other words, it's difficult to win by large margins when playing this way. So it should come as no surprise that the Beavers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. We saw Boston play K-State to a 10-point game earlier this season, and it has defeated a very good Northeastern team, so there is some talent on this squad. The Terriers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. We'll take the points tonight. |
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03-17-10 | Illinois v. Stony Brook +7 | 76-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
3* NIT Annihilator (ESPNU) on Stony Brook +7
Illinois saw its bubble burst when it lost to Ohio State in double-OT in the Big Ten tourney. This Illinois team looked like a lock for the Big Dance until it lost 6 of its last 8 games. No matter how hard Bruce Weber might try, it's going to be hard for him to get his team motivated to play this basketball game. In addition, I'm always leery of Illinois laying points since it is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite. I'm especially leery when we're talking this many points as the Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, Illinois is only 2-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Stony Brook had its sights set on the NCAA Tourney as well, but it will have no trouble getting up for a home game against a major conference team. We'll take the points. |
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03-16-10 | William & Mary v. North Carolina -8.5 | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
3* NIT Opening Round SMASH (ESPN) on UNC -8.5
William & Mary has had some very good wins this season, but I don't like its chances tonight. The Tar Heels are way more athletic with a lot more size. They should dominate the boards and really hurt the Tribe in the paint as well as in transition. It's been an embarrassing season for UNC, and the last thing they want is to take an embarrassing loss to school like W&M on national TV. It's been a struggle for Roy Williams this season, but he should have his boys ready to play tonight. The fact that W&M has some quality wins will only make it easier for Williams to get his boys to take this one seriously. W&M is a team that really depends on the 3-point shot, but I don't anticipate the Tribe shooting a high percentage. UNC's quickness in closeouts and their length won't allow W&M to get as many clean looks as they will need. The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number. |
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03-16-10 | Arkansas Pine Bluff +4.5 v. Winthrop | 61-44 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
3* Opening Round SMASH (ESPN) on Ark Pine Bluff +4.5
I really can't justify laying the points here when you consider how awful Winthrop is offensively. The Eagles only shoot 38.3% from the floor, and just 25.5% from beyond the arc. Ark Pine Bluff started the season 0-11 as it played 11 straight road games against schools such as UTEP, Arizona State, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Kansas State. These early season losses paid dividends down the stretch when Golden Lions won their conference tournament, and I expect them to pay off in this play-in game as well. Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (Winthrop), poor offensive team scoring 64 or fewer points per game on the season, after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games, are 40-17 ATS since 1997, 24-9 ATS the last 5 seasons and 17-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. The favorite has been favored by 5.3 points on average in these games but is only winning by an average of 0.7 points. Also, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (APB), after playing a game where both it and its opponents scored 65 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season, are 73-33 ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points with the Golden Lions here. |
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03-15-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Golden State Warriors +8 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout (ESPN) on Warriors +8
The Warriors have quietly covered the spread in 3 straight, 6 of their last 8 and 10 of their last 15. Playing Portland to a 5-point game and defeating Toronto by double digits in their last 2 comes as no surprise as the Warriors are healthier than they've been in a long time with Corey Maggette and Monta Ellis back in the lineup. With this being a division game, and with it being against the best team in the West, you can bet the Warriors will be pumped up. In fact, they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. They are 8-1 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6 or more points per game this season, only losing to these teams by 4.7 points on average. They are also 17-5 ATS versus other up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game this season, only losing to these teams by .3 points on average. The Lakers are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Lakers have struggled to put teams away on the road and we anticipate that being the case again this evening. |
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03-15-10 | New York Knicks v. Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 | 94-84 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
4* Major Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on 76ers -3.5
After a completely dominant performance against the Mavs Saturday, this is a natural letdown spot for the Knicks. Meanwhile, the 76ers will be hungry to avenge yesterday's loss to Miami and a 1-point home heartbreaker to the Knicks earlier this year. The Knicks are only 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Philadelphia. The Knicks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win and 15-31 ATS in their last 46 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The 76ers have won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, with all 8 of those wins coming by 5 points or more, and with 6 of them coming by double figures. Lay the number. |
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03-14-10 | Utah Jazz +1.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 111-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
3* Sunday Night NBA SMASH on Jazz +1.5
The Jazz have not lost back-to-back games in more than two months and I don't expect that streak to end today. They will be especially motivated this evening against a team that defeated them in both previous meetings this season, including a 1-point heartbreaker the last time they met. Besides being a good bounce back team from a straight up standpoint, the Jazz are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss. They are are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Plus, Utah is 12-2 ATS off a road loss this season, winning these games by an average score of 107.2 to 97.3. It is also 17-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, winning in these spot by an average score of 104.7 to 95.5. Take the Jazz. |
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03-14-10 | Indiana Pacers +9.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NBA Early Annihilator on Pacers +9.5
After an embarrassing loss to the Celtics, and after 3 prior defeats to the Bucks this season, expect the Pacers to be very hungry here. The Pacers have played the Bucks to 3 and 2 point games in two of their 3 defeats so I think we are getting a really good line here. Right away, I love the fact that plays against favorites, an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where it and its opponents scored 95 points or less, are 23-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The underdog is only losing by an average of .3 points in these games while being faced with an average pointspread of 7.6. It is also worth noting that Indiana is 8-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.6 to 98.8. The Bucks are rolling right now and they are being overvalued because of it. Expect the Pacers to keep this one close. |
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03-14-10 | Mississippi State +8 v. Kentucky | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday Conference Tourney *BEST BET* (ABC) on Mississippi State +8
According to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Mississippi State is still on the first five out list in terms of the NCAA Tourney. While I think the Bulldogs are deserving of a bid, and they certainly feel they have done enough, now is not the time to leave any doubt in the mind of the committee by getting blown out here. Expect Mississippi State, which took Kentucky to OT during the regular season, to give the Wildcats all they want and more again to solidify their spot in the Big Dance. I really like the Bulldogs catching this many points as they are an impressive 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. The public is all over Kentucky here after its dominant win Saturday, but now is actually the time to go against the Wildcats as they are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Mississippi State is also 14-3 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points per game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 74.8 to 67.8. I like the experience of the Bulldogs in this big game as well. Take the points. |
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03-13-10 | Orlando Magic v. Washington Wizards +12.5 | 109-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Wizards +12.5
This might be Washington's 3rd game in 3 nights, but that actually plays in our favor here as it is causing odds makers to severely undervalue this team. Washington may only be 12-21 at home, but it is only losing those games by an average of 2.6 points. Orlando is 19-14 on the road, but it is only winning those games by 2.2 points on average. So I'd say we are getting some pretty good value with the Wizards here. Plus, Washington has proven that it shows up against the Magic and should be even more motivated to do so after a poor performance against Detroit. The Wizards have won both meetings this season and haven't lost by more than 9 points in the last 4. It also plays to our favor that Orlando has a game tomorrow against a better Bobcats team. A win will suffice for the Magic here while staying fresh for tomorrow's contest. So there |
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03-13-10 | Kansas State +5.5 v. Kansas | Top | 64-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
5* Big 12 Tourney Game of the Year (ESPN) on Kansas State +5.5
Kansas State wants this one bad! The Wildcats gave the Jayhawks all they wanted and more in the season's first meeting, losing by just 2 points in overtime. The second meeting, at Kansas, saw the Jayhawks shoot out of their minds in a convincing win. That win actually plays in our favor here though. Not only does a loss like that really motivate the losing team, especially one as good as K-State, but it also forces odds makers to increase the point spread. I just don't think Kansas is 6 points better on a neutral floor, not with the motivation that K-State has after two prior defeats. Kansas has been overvalued all season because of the betting attention that the No. 1 team in the country receives. It's an easy way for the books to make money. Jack up the line on Kansas and collect when they don't cover the spread. In fact, the Jayhawks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Wildcats have been the better teams to back. They are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall, 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. We'll take the points. |
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03-13-10 | Richmond +4 v. Xavier | 89-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
3* Atlantic 10 Annihilator on Richmond +4
This is a big time revenge spot for Richmond, which lost by 2 points in double-OT to Xavier earlier this season. We successfully played on Xavier for our Conference Tournament Game of the Year yesterday as the Musketeers were looking to exact revenge on Dayton. Today, we'll go against Xavier as Richmond should be the more motivated team. Right away, I love the fact that the Spiders are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Plus, the Spiders are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall and an unbeaten 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Richmond should most definitely show up today. We'll take the points. |
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03-12-10 | Georgia v. Vanderbilt -7.5 | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side. |
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03-12-10 | Los Angeles Clippers +10 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Clippers +10
After 5 straight losses, the Clippers will be a very hungry team tonight. On top of that, they will draw confidence from a 98-94 win over the Bobcats last month. The Bobcats are rolling, having won 4 in a row SU & ATS, but it's going to be difficult for them to give the Clippers their full attention with Orlando up next. Just last month, the Bobcats lost to the Nets at home when they were caught looking ahead to Cleveland. Plus, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 21-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Clippers. |
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03-12-10 | Dayton v. Xavier -3 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier -3
Ever since Xavier was absolutely embarrassed by Dayton, losing 65-90, the Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, winning 7 in a row with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. You can bet Xavier was hoping it would get a chance to face Dayton again. Well, it gets that chance this evening and I expect the Musketeers to get their revenge. Right away, I love the fact that plays on any team revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 32-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Flyers enter at 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Xavier is 17-6 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Look for Xavier to roll tonight. |
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03-11-10 | Oregon State +9 v. Washington | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
5* Pac-10 Tourney Game of the Year (FSN) on Oregon State +9
The Beavers will be out for revenge tonight after losing by 6 and 12 points to Washington during the regular season. Oregon State has to be excited to get another crack at the Huskies with a chance to burst their bubble. Right away, I love that Oregon State is 15-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, winning these games by an average score of 60.8 to 59.5. And that's not all. The Beavers are 24-5 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Huskies are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games and 1-8 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the Beavers and the points. |
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03-11-10 | TCU +16.5 v. BYU | 85-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
3* MWC Tourney SMASH on TCU +16.5
BYU just defeated TCU by 30 points in its last game so it's going to be hard for the Cougars to be as focused as need be to cover this large number tonight. The thing to note about that 30-point defeat is that TCU had just given conference champion New Mexico a scare the game before. The Horned Frogs obviously hadn't recovered yet from such an emotionally draining loss. After getting completely embarrassed by BYU, expect TCU to show up in a big way tonight. The Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. Plus, plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points; an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, and after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more, are 60-26 ATS since 1997. The favorite is only winning by an average of 12.4 points in these games. Take TCU. |
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03-11-10 | Atlanta Hawks -7 v. Washington Wizards | 105-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
3* Thursday Night NBA SMASH on Hawks -7
Off back-to-back defeats, including one to the lowly Knicks, expect the Hawks to respond with a big win in Washington tonight. Winning in Washington has been no problem for the Hawks as they are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS at Washington over the last 3 seasons. Plus, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record, are 30-10 ATS the last 5 seasons, winning these games by 9.2 points on average. In addition, Atlanta is on a 16-4 ATS run as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, winning in these spots by 14.4 points on average. We'll lay the points. |
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03-10-10 | New Jersey Nets +11.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
3* 28-0 ATS NBA SMASH on Nets +11.5
I stayed away from the Nets as much as possible this season, but now there is starting to be some value in playing them. This is a team that does not want to go down in the history books as the worst ever so they are playing hard right now. As a result, they have covered the spread in 3 straight games. The Mavs are extremely banged up. Terry is out for sure and Barea, Haywood and Dampier all could miss as well. Health is the most important thing this time of year so don't expect the Mavs to play a bunch of banged up guys big minutes just to blowout the worst team in the NBA. Dallas will be content with just squeaking by with a "W" in this spot. With Dallas lacking guard depth due to injuries, look for Harris, the former Mav, to have a big game tonight. Jason Kidd just doesn't have the foot speed to stay with him, especially if he has to play big minutes. The numbers are in our favor as well. The Nets are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Mavericks are 3-22-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. We'll take the points. |
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03-10-10 | Rice +14.5 v. Tulsa | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3* Conference Tourney Line Mistake on Rice +14.5
Rice finished the season with 7 straight defeats so it will be extremely motivated as it looks to play spoiler tonight. Plus, the Owls will not be lacking any confidence after playing Tulsa to a 4-point game earlier this season. With these things in mind, I feel odds makers are asking too much of Tulsa tonight, especially when you consider that they have not won by more than 14 points since January 16th. The Golden Hurricane are just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. Conference USA, 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Meanwhile, the Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. We'll take the points. |
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03-10-10 | Robert Morris +4.5 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 52-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* NEC Game of the Year (ESPN 2) on Robert Morris +4.5
With revenge on the mind for an earlier season loss, and with an NCAA Tournament berth on the line, I'll take Robert Morris and the points this evening. Robert Morris appeared to have the league title in the bag until it dropped 2 of its last 3 conference games to Quinnipiac and Mount St. Mary's. Last game, Robert Morris avenged its loss to Mount St. Mary's with an 80-62 blowout win, and I expect the Colonials to win this one outright tonight. Mount St. Mary's had come into the conference tourney as the hottest team in the league, but Robert Morris dominated. You know how the old saying goes, "defense wins championships", and Robert Morris is the more capable defensive team. The Colonials have won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 10 in this series. Quinnipiac may have the home court advantage here, but I don't think it will be enough. Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick, a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games, are 52-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take Robert Morris and the points. |
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03-09-10 | Miami Heat +3.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA System Play of the Month on Heat +3.5
I feel this is a great spot to back the Heat tonight. Miami is playing some of its best ball of the season, having won 3 straight with 2 of those wins coming over the Lakers and Hawks. So momentum is on its side. Motivation is also on its side. The last time these teams faced off, the Bobcats handed the Heat an embarrassing 104-65 loss. Trust me, that one is not sitting well with D. Wade and company. Expect a big game from Wade tonight and for the Heat to pull the upset. Plays on road underdogs revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 25-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, and when that dog is well rested only playing its 2nd game in 5 days, the situation improves to 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons (85.2%). These numbers are too telling to ignore. We'll play by the numbers tonight! |
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03-09-10 | Massachusetts +9.5 v. Charlotte U | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
3* A-10 Tourney Annihilator on UMass +9.5
Really think UMass isn't getting enough respect tonight when you consider that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog, are 32-8 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS this season. And there's more, the 49ers are just 8-26 ATS in their last 34 vs. the Atlantic 10, 49ers are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Minutemen are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Last thing, the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points. |
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03-09-10 | Providence +6.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 106-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
5* Big East Tourney *BEST BET* (ESPN U) on Providence +6.5
I really like Providence catching a generous amount of points tonight. The Friars enter this contest having lost 10 in a row so they will be very hungry. On top of that, they will be a dangerous team because they have nothing to lose here. Seton Hall, who has a chance to play itself into the NCAAB Tournament is facing far more pressure. These two teams just played each other Saturday with Seton Hall coming out on top by 12 points, but it is an extremely difficult task to win again in these kind of spots. The losing team is usually hungrier and odds makers usually overvalued the winning team as that is the one the public tends to flock to. Furthermore, it's hard to justify laying points with Seton Hall when you consider that the Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite, 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Meanwhile, the Friars are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Providence. |
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03-08-10 | William & Mary v. Old Dominion -9 | 53-60 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Major Conference Tourney Blowout on Old Dominion -9
It's been a good run for William & Mary, but I expect it to come to an end tonight. After getting a major scare from VCU, look for the Monarchs to return to the court with more hunger and more focus tonight. It is not a certainty that Old Dominion will make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tourney tonight so they should not be lacking any motivation. The Monarchs have won both games with W&M this season. They won by 3 at W&M and by 19 at home. On a neutral floor today, look for the Monarchs to flex their muscles and show their superiority. I feel very comfortable laying this number when you consider that the Monarchs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Tribe are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Lay the number. |
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03-07-10 | Portland Trail Blazers +7 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Blazers +7
Expect the rested Blazers (haven't played since Mar. 3), winners of 5 of their last 6 SU & ATS, to play really well against their division rival tonight. While Denver is 27-5 at home this season, it is only 16-15-1 ATS in those games. Portland is 17-14 on the road, but a strong 20-10-1 ATS in those games. While Portland is rested, Denver is not. Carmelo has been receiving additional intravenous fluids because he's been so run down. In fact, Denver is only 5-13 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season, only winning in these spots 2.7 points on average. I also like that Portland is 8-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points per game in the 2nd half of the season this season. The Trail Blazers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite. We'll take the points. |
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03-07-10 | Loyola Marymount v. Gonzaga -12 | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major Conference Tourney Blowout on Gonzaga -12
Loyola Marymount has really played well down the stretch, but it finds itself in a very tough spot tonight. It has come up with a pair of tough wins the last 2 days, but now it must face an extremely fresh Gonzaga squad that hasn't played since March 2. On top of this, Gonzaga has a little added motivation here because it lost to Loyola last month after crushing the Lions by 16 in the season's first matchup. Loyola may be able to hang around in the first half, but in the second, I just can't see its legs being there. Plus, the Bulldogs are also playing for NCAA Tournament seeding so they'll be looking to impress the committee for a final time in this conference tourney. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Lay the number. |
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03-06-10 | North Carolina v. Duke -14.5 | 50-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
3* SMASH (ESPN) on Duke -14.5
It's senior night, it's a rivalry game, Duke is coming off a loss, and it needs this one to ensure itself of at least a share of the ACC regular season title. We haven't seen the Blue Devils in a more motivated spot all season so I expect them to really put the hurt on the Tar Heels here. An important thing to note is the total range as Duke is 8-1 ATS in home games where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 86.6 to 55.9 believe it or not. It's also important to note that Duke is 8-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season, winning these games by an average score of 83.4 to 58.1. The Blue Devils are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. We'll lay the points. |
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03-06-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 85-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
4* Major Saturday Night NBA Blowout on Cavs -3.5
After coming out sluggish last night, expect the Cavs to show up against a hot Milwaukee Bucks team that gave them a run for their money when they last faced off in December. Milwaukee is playing its best basketball of the season, but I feel comfortable laying this number when you consider that it has a 17-point loss to Orlando and a 4-point loss to Atlanta during this hot streak. Plus, Cleveland has won 5 of the last 6 meetings by 6 or more points with the last 3 at Milwaukee coming by 8 or more points. The Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Lay the points. |
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03-06-10 | Tulsa +7.5 v. Memphis | Top | 53-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
5* 2010 NCAAB Game of the Year on Tulsa +7.5
This is a big revenge game for Tulsa after falling to Memphis earlier this season. A major key here is Tulsa's rebounding edge. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds per game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Plus, Memphis is 0-8 ATS after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. In addition, Memphis is just 6-15 ATS as a favorite this season and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as a home favorite. The Golden Hurricane want this one bad, so much so that they nearly got caught looking ahead last game. No matter how good some of the Tulsa teams have been in recent years, they have all played second fiddle to Memphis. Now, I really believe Tulsa is the better team. I really expect Tulsa to win this game outright as a 7.5-point dog, and that's why I have made the Golden Hurricane my Game of the Year. Best of Luck. |
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03-05-10 | Santa Clara +4 v. San Diego | Top | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
5* WCC Game of the Year on Santa Clara +4
Santa Clara and San Diego both finished 3-11 in WCC play, splitting during the regular season, but I really believe Santa Clara is the better team playing better basketball right now. And it should be the hungrier team tonight as it looks to snap a 3-game skid. With this is mind, I just can't justify San Diego as a 4-point favorite. In fact, I really believe the wrong team is favored here. First off, the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two schools. Secondly, the Toreros are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. the WCC, 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Thirdly, the Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as an underdog and 7-0 ATS when playing away from home after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points. |
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03-05-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 104-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Major Friday Night NBA Blowout on Thunder -4.5
Off their worst loss of the season, look for the Thunder to be motivated enough to put the hurt on the Clippers tonight. The Thunder have used motivation very well. In fact, they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 41-18 ATS in their last 59 games following a loss period. In other words, this is a great bounce back team. The Clippers are in a similar situation, coming off a blowout loss to Phoenix, but they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. On top of this, the Thunder will be out to avenge a loss to the Clippers the last time these two teams met, and plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a same season loss, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 36-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, good team outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 34-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 6-1 ATS this season. Lay the points. |
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03-05-10 | New Orleans Hornets +8 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* ESPN Game of the Month on Hornets +8
Off 3 straight defeats, the Hornets will be extremely hungry tonight, especially since one of those defeats was to the Spurs on Monday. The Spurs haven't played since that Monday game, but that could prove to be too much time off when you consider that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. It's also hard to lay this many points with the Spurs when you consider that they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It makes it even more difficult to lay those points when you see that the Hornets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, one day of rest is usually sufficient for the Hornets as they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. We'll take the points. |
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03-04-10 | Utah Jazz +1.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Jazz +1.5
Rarely does Utah ever lose 2 in a row. In fact, the Jazz have not lost back-to-back games in 2 months. Utah will be the fresher team tonight, having not played since Monday (Phoenix just played last night). The Jazz will also be extremely motivated to avenge a loss to the lowly Clippers in their last game. Head-to-head, the Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Phoenix. As I already mentioned, they are a great bounce back team and are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss as a result. The Jazz are also 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Another thing that can't go unmentioned here is how much better Utah has been than Phoenix when playing on Thursday nights, a night that NBA teams don't play on often. The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games while the Suns are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games. We'll take Utah tonight. |
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03-04-10 | Evansville +9.5 v. Missouri State | Top | 46-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
5* MVC Game of the Year on Evansville +9.5
Evansville may have finished in last place in the Valley during the regular season, but it wasn't playing like a last place team down the stretch. The Aces recorded wins over 2nd place finisher Wichita State and over conference champion Northern Iowa. In other words, this is not the same team that Missouri State defeated by 10 points at home on Jan. 27th. One big reason I feel good about taking the points is because Missouri State doesn't force a lot of turnovers, and therefore doesn't score many points off turnovers. In fact, the Bears are 0-8 ATS after going 5 straight games without forcing an opponent to commit more than 14 turnovers. Missouri State has also struggled to cover the number in neutral site contests. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as a favorite. The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite period. You also have to like that the Purple Aces are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points. |
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03-04-10 | Penn State +13 v. Michigan State | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
3* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN 2) on Penn State +13
Michigan State may be 13-2 at home this season, but it is only 4-10 ATS in its home lined games. In fact, Michigan State hasn't defeated anyone at home by more than 10 points in Big Ten play this season. We find the Spartans in a letdown spot tonight as well after a big revenge win over Purdue. Penn State is playing its best basketball off the season, winning 3 of its last 4 games with 2 of those wins coming on the road. The fact of the matter is Penn State has been an exceptional road team from a point spread standpoint. Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, only losing by an average score of 64 to 66.3. Michigan State may be a strong rebounding team, but Penn State is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons, only losing in these games by an average score of 68.5 to 69.2. Penn State is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season while Michigan State is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points this season. The Spartans are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. We'll take the points tonight. |
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03-03-10 | TCU +16 v. New Mexico | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* MWC Game of the Month on TCU +16
I feel there is some serious line value with TCU tonight when you consider that New Mexico is only winning by an average of 13.8 points at home this season. Plus, it's going to be hard for the Lobos to get up for this one after such an emotional win over BYU. On top of that, plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 7 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), are 59-18 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 10-1 ATS this season. The favorite has been favored by an average of 17.8 points in these games but is only winning by an average of 12.8. We'll take the points as TCU shows up in a big way trying to knock off the top dog in the conference. |
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03-03-10 | Memphis Grizzlies +2 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +2
I really believe Memphis is the better team and it will be hungry to prove it after 2 prior losses to the Hornets this season. In the latest matchup between these two teams, New Orleans overcame a 21-point third-quarter deficit to win 109-102 in overtime. In the teams' first matchup this season, New Orleans rallied from a nine-point deficit and won 113-111 at home on James Posey's layup with 1.1 seconds left. Those two losses, which should have been wins, have to be sitting very sour with the Grizzlies. They will be the driving force for a Memphis win this evening. Memphis has won 4 straight on the road. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Plus, the Hornets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Take Memphis. |
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03-03-10 | SMU v. Tulsa -9 | 55-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
3* C-USA Cash Cow on Tulsa -9
Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick after a cover as a double digit favorite, in March games, are 23-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. On average this system has seen the favorite win by an average of 16.6 points. SMU was just a 13.5-point dog at Memphis, at team Tulsa is very comparable to, so I feel we are getting some good line value here. After finally ending its 4-game skid, expect Tulsa to use its momentum to really hammer SMU on senior night. Lay the points. |
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03-02-10 | Illinois +9.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 57-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
5* 2010 Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +9.5
A win ensures Ohio State the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tourney and at least a share of the regular season conference championship so the Buckeyes shouldn't be lacking motivation. However, Illinois will be extremely motivated as well, and with that in mind, odds makers are spotting the Illini too many points. The Illini can earn a first round bye in the Big Ten tourney with a win tonight. But their biggest motivation is that a win will likely ensure them a place in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have dropped 3 of 4, including a 19-point embarrassing loss to the Buckeyes, to find themselves on the bubble. Illinois already has wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. It is a much better team than it has showed recently, and I expect the Illini to give the Buckeyes all they want and more tonight. Illinois has shot very poorly in the games it has lost recently and is coming off a dismal 31.9% shooting effort. But that actually bodes well for us here as Illinois is on an 11-1 ATS run in road games after a game where they made 33% of their shots or worse. The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite, 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season and 0-7 ATS in home games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Take Illinois and the points. |
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03-02-10 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -3 | 64-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
3* SEC SMASH on Florida -3
I'll take the unranked home favorite in this one as I believe odds makers are tipping their hand. Vandy has lost 8 straight at Florida and I don't see this streak coming to an end tonight. The Gators know they still have some work to do to leave absolutely no doubt in the minds of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, especially after a bad loss to Georgia. History is on our side tonight as well when you consider that plays on a home team off an upset loss to a conference rival against an opponent that scored 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, are 60-27 ATS since 1997 and 31-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Gators are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. It is also worth noting that Vandy is 0-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. This is significant because Vandy is a pretty good free throw shooting team and Florida won't give them as many opportunities from the line. Take Florida. |
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03-01-10 | Oklahoma v. Texas -13 | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Texas -13
This may seem like quite a big number at first glance, but the Sooners have lost by at least 13 points in 3 of their last 4 road games. Plus, Texas will be extremely motivated in this spot for several reasons. First off, it's senior night. Secondly, the Longhorns are coming off a poor performance against Texas A&M. Lastly, the Horns will be looking to avenge a loss at Oklahoma last month. This situation is very similar to one Texas was in back on Feb. 13. The Horns had just played poorly against Kansas and they went out and destroyed Nebraska by 40 points. The Sooners are just 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Texas. OU is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in a week this season, losing in these spot by an average of 14.8 points. Texas is on a 17-6 ATS run in home games when playing its 3rd game in a week, winning in these spots by 16.3 points on average. It is also a tremendous 11-1 ATS in home games where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by 19.3 points on average. We'll lay the points. |
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03-01-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. Charlotte Bobcats -2 | Top | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Bobcats -2
This is a tough spot for the Mavs, who just played last night, and will be playing their 9th game in 14 days. The Bobcats find themselves in a much better spot, playing at home where they are an impressive 20-7 this season, and playing with 2 full days of rest. Charlotte will also be looking for a little bit of revenge here after falling at Dallas by 1 point in December. Right away, you have to like the fact that plays against underdogs playing on back-to-back days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 164-109 the last 5 seasons (60.1%). You also have to like the fact that Charlotte is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 97.8 to 90.6. The Bobcats are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Mavericks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing without any days rest. We'll take the Bobcats at home tonight. |
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02-28-10 | New Orleans Hornets +8 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 100-108 | Push | 0 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
5* Sunday Night NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Hornets +8
New Orleans has showed up against elite competition. Just this month, we've seen the Hornets play the Magic to a 6-point game at Orlando to cover as a 9.5-point dog. We just saw the Hornets beat the Magic outright as a 5-point dog Friday. We have also seen them defeat the Celtics here recently and cover the number against the Cavs. The Hornets are very confident right now, even without Chris Paul, because of how well Darren Collison is playing. Plus, New Orleans has played the Mavs extremely tough, having won 8 of the last 11 meetings. You also have to like the fact that New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under coach Bower. The Hornets are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 1 days rest and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite and 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points. |
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02-28-10 | Indiana +6 v. Iowa | 57-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
4* Major Big Ten Bomb on Indiana +6
The Hoosiers may enter having lost 9 in a row, but I just can't justify Iowa laying this many points, especially since Indiana will be hungry to avenge an earlier season home loss to the Hawkeyes. This has been a matchup dominated by the dog as the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. And the Hawks have proven they can't be trusted as a home favorite as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in the role. The odds are certainly in Indiana's favor when you consider that road teams, after failing to cover the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season, are 72-30 ATS since 1997, 26-6 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS this season. Indiana knows this is its chance to end its losing streak and should come out with a lot or energy today. Take the points. |
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02-28-10 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -6 | 89-95 | Push | 0 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Marquee Matchup (ABC) on Lakers -6
This is a statement game for LA, which has been crushed by the Nuggets by double digits twice already this season. While the Nuggets were able to win in LA earlier this month, that was an aberration as the Nuggets are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Los Angeles against the Lakers. A big key here will be the depleted energy level of the Nuggets, which have played a lot of games in few days. In fact, Denver is just 3-11 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Lakers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and I look for them to put it on the Nuggets here. |
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02-27-10 | Villanova +5.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 77-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ESPN Game of the Year on Villanova +5.5
We'll take Villanova and the points today as its big game experience and experienced back court, led by Scottie Reynolds, gives the Wildcats the edge. Nova has won 3 straight in this series and 5 of the last 6. From a point spread perspective, the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Syracuse and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Nova has the type of guards that can really cause problems for the Cuse zone with their penetration and ability to knocks down threes. And that's why we've seen the Wildcats enjoy success against the Orange. With first place on the line, I just can't see Villanova getting beat by more than 5 points. And frankly, I can't see it getting beat period. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and we'll take them in that role here today. |
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02-27-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers -1.5 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Blowout of the Month on Pacers -1.5
With Joakim Noah doubtful this evening, and with Indiana out for revenge after losing at Chicago this week, we'll take the rested Pacers in this revenge spot against a Bulls team that just played an emotionally and physically draining OT game last night. Right away, you have to like the Pacers when you consider that plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent, after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 64-32 ATS since 1996. The last time Indiana played the same team twice in the same week, it lost the first game (by 15 at Toronto) but then responded with a 15-point win in the second game. We'll lay the points here as I like Indiana by double digits. |
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02-27-10 | Iowa State v. Colorado -4 | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB *Early Blowout* on Colorado -4
After getting absolutely hammered by Mizzou, the Buffs will be extremely motivated today, especially since they will be looking to avenge a 1-point loss at Iowa State last month. Iowa State is coming off a conference win and that figures to be good news as the Cyclones are 0-6 ATS following a conference win over the last 2 seasons. What's even more shocking is that the Cyclones are losing by an average score of 63.8 to 82.2 in these spots. Iowa State is 3-8 away from home this season while the Buffs are 11-3 on their home floor. Colorado is 2-0 SU & ATS in its last 2 home meetings against ISU and it is 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS in its last 12. Also, under coach McDermott, Iowa State is on a 1-10 ATS slide in road games off a conference win, losing in these spots by an average score of 60.1 to 79.1. The Buffaloes are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points and we'll bet them in that role here today. Lay the points. |