Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-06-19 | LSU v. Florida +1 | Top | 79-78 | Push | 0 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA (10* BEST BET). The Gators won (in OT) at LSU in this season's earlier meeting. Playing their regular season home finale, I expect the Gators to complete the regular season sweep. While the Gators were upset last time out, they'd previously won five straight. While many will assume the Tigers are going to be the hungrier team, due to the fact that they're in a battle for first and playing with revenge, the Gators are also going to be extremely motivated. They absolutely want to close out the season strong and know they can potentially still improve by a few spots. Note that LSU is 0-6 SU/ATS the past six times that it attempted to avenge a loss in which is was favored. While the Gators have had trouble covering big numbers here, we don't have to worry about that here. They're 31-11 on this floor the past few seasons and I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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03-05-19 | Blazers v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* BEST BET). I believe that the Grizzlies are catching the Blazers at the right time. True, Portland has been red hot. However, this will mark the final game of a 7-game road trip. With a huge divisional showdown vs. OKC, a team they are currently tied with, I believe it will be easy for the Blazers to look ahead to the return trip home. The home team has won and covered both meetings in the season series. Including their victory here at Memphis on 12/12, the Grizzlies are 9-4 ATS against Northwest division opponents. The Grizzlies have won two of their last four and the two losses came by just two and four points. Expect them to be at their best here. |
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03-05-19 | Xavier v. Butler -3.5 | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUTLER (10* VIOLATOR). The Musketeers won by a single point when these teams met at Xavier. Playing their regular season home finale and desperate to snap a 3-game slide, I expect the Bulldogs to rise to the occasion and exact some revenge. Even off a road win at St. Johns, who the Musketeers will also face next, Xavier is a mediocre 17-16 SU on the road the past couple of seasons. During the same span, Butler is 38-10 at home. During that span, Butler has only dropped three straight conference games three times. In all three cases, the Bulldogs won their next game, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Expect them to once again stop the skid at three, covering the small number along the way. |
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03-04-19 | Clippers v. Lakers -4 | Top | 113-105 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS (10* PERS FAV). Time is running out for the Lakers. They've lost four of five and desperately need a win here. I expect them to respond with their best effort. The Clippers have been excellent as favorites and covered in that role again yesterday. However, they are just 14-19 ATS as underdogs. Despite their overall problems, the Lakers remain a solid 9-3 ATS against divisional opponents. After losing to the lowly Suns last time out, note that the Lakers are 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a home loss against a divisional opponent, when favored by six or more. Expect them to play with desperation and improve on those stats here. |
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03-04-19 | Northern Arizona v. Montana -15 | Top | 64-66 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on MONTANA (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Lumberjacks are off b2b losses and have now dropped six of their last eight. Things don't get easier here. The Grizzlies won by 16 last time out. They're playing their regular season home finale this evening and are going to be motivated to deliver another blowout. The Grizzlies already won by 13 at Northern Arizona this season and they won by 18 here in last season's meeting. In fact, the won both of last season's meetings by 18. Note that the Lumberjacks are 0-3-1 ATS (0-4 SU) the past four times that they tried to avenge a home loss, where the opposing team scored 85 or more, 1-7-1 ATS (1-8 SU) when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss overall. Expect this one to be one-sided, the Grizzlies winning by 18+ once again. |
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03-03-19 | Arizona State v. Oregon State OVER 145 | Top | 74-71 | Push | 0 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on ASU/OSU OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Last season's game here had an O/U line of 149.5 and finished with 154 points. This season, we're working with a lower O/U line and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Note that ASU has seen the OVER go 13-3 the past 16 times it played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. That includes a PERFECT 5-0 'over' record when on the road, when the O/U line ranged from 145 to 149.5. During the same span, the Beavers have seen the OVER go 3-0 when they were off an 'upset' loss in Pac-12 play, 13-4-1 when off a home loss overall. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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03-03-19 | Grizzlies v. Thunder OVER 218.5 | Top | 95-99 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis/OKC OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). While we tend to think of the Grizzlies as a low-scoring defensive team, there are certain situations where they tend to be involved in higher-scoring games. One such situation is when they're off an 'upset victory.' (Yesterday, they won outright as a +4.5 point underdog, at Dallas.) When off an upset win, the OVER is 7-3-1 the Grizzlies' last 11 games, 3-1 this season. During the same stretch, the Thunder have seen the OVER go 3-1 when off a double-digit road loss. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting, the OVER improving to 8-3-1 the last dozen times that OKC was listed as a home favorite in the -9.5 to -12 range. |
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03-03-19 | Blazers v. Hornets +3 | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* GAME OF WEEK). Tough spot for the West Coast based Blazers. They're off a close road loss at Toronto - they're already 0-2 SU/ATS when off a road loss by three of fewer points - and playing an early game, after having been on the road for an extended period. The Hornets are 3-1-1 ATS in five tries as a home underdog of six or fewer points. They're going to be motivated to avenge a 30+ point blowout loss at Portland. They're 10-4-1 ATS after having lost three of their previous four and I expect AT LEAST another cover on Sunday afternoon. |
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03-02-19 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -13 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER (10* PERS FAV). Without Davis in the lineup, the Pelicans are going to really struggle at this difficult venue. The Nuggets hit the road after this. Off a loss against Utah last time out, they're going to be highly motivated to pick up a big win before the trip. While the Nuggets' number may seem big, note that they're a perfect 9-0 SU, covering the spread in seven of those, the past nine times that they were favorites if -12.5 or more points. The Nuggets won by 15, 16, 32 and 16 the past four times that they were a host of the Pelicans. Expect another blowout. |
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03-02-19 | Austin Peay v. Murray State -8.5 | Top | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on MURRAY STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I really like how this one sets up for the Racers. Going for their ninth straight conf. victory, the Racers have a ton of positive momentum. On the other hand, Austin Peay is off a deflating 2-point loss against Eastern Kentucky, they type of defeat that can take the wind out of a team's sails. Six of the Racers' last seven wins, including four straight, have been by double-digits. The Racers already won a close one at Austin Peay on Valentine's Day. The last meeting here saw them win by 21, an 84-63 rout. The previous season's game here was a 102-58 destruction. Expect another double-digit win. |
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03-02-19 | LSU v. Alabama +1.5 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* MAIN EVENT). LSU came through for me in last week's win against Tennessee. They'd follow it up by beating A&M by 11 points. However, now that they're on the road, I expect the Tigers to stumble. The Tide got back on track last weekend, snapping a 3-game skid with a win over Vanderbilt. They followed it up with a win and cover at South Carolina. Momentum back on their side, they understand what a huge and critical opportunity this is. A bubble team, a signature win in this game would do wonders for their tournament resume. LSU is an ugly 1-9-1 ATS its last 11, when off a double-digit conference win. |
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03-01-19 | Blazers v. Raptors -5 | Top | 117-119 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO (10* MAIN EVENT). The Blazers have been on a nice roll but I expect it to come to an end this evening. The revenge-minded Raptors have more home wins (26) than any other team in the entire Eastern Conference. By comparison, even with their recent success away from Portland, the Blazers are still just 14-15 on the road. Here, the Blazers are nearing the end of a lengthy road trip and this will mark the ninth consecutive game in which they played at a different venue from their previous game. The Raptors were laying a similar number of points for last year's game here yet won in a blowout, 130-105. The Raptors are healthy, rested and they get tomorrow off. They're off a blowout of Boston and I expect them to continue their very strong homecourt play this evening. |
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03-01-19 | Columbia v. Brown -7 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROWN (10* IVY LEAGUE GAME OF YEAR). I won with Columbia last Friday; the Lions won outright as big underdogs at Penn. They were forced to go to OT in that game though and they followed it up by getting blown out at Princeton the following day. Now 7-17, they're playing their third straight on the road and at a venue where they tend to struggle. Indeed, the Lions are just 1-7 ATS their last eight visits here. The Bears, 2nd highest scoring team in the Ivy League, are having a strong year and they're currently on a roll. Expect them to complete the season sweep this afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. |
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02-28-19 | Arizona State v. Oregon -1.5 | Top | 51-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
I’m playing on Oregon (10* GAME OF MONTH). It’s “revenge” time for the Ducks. Arizona State posted the 78-64 home win over Oregon in the first meeting this year. Arizona State earned a 69-59 home win over a poor Cal team last time out, while the Ducks come in off a 90-83 road loss to UCLA. Not only do the Ducks play with revenge, but I think they come in as unquestionably the “hungrier” team in this one after three straight losses, while ASU is complacent after three straight victories. The revenge angle works in this one. Lay the points, Ducks roll. |
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02-28-19 | Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 217 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
I’m playing on the under Cavs/Knicks (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Cleveland enters off a 123-110 loss at home to Portland, while the Knicks rallied to beat Orlando 108-103 on Tuesday. The home side plays with double revenge tonight between these two bottom feeders as the Cavs have taken both in the season series thus far, including a 107-104 home win on February 11th. I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. The Cavs have gone 2-1 since the All Star break, while New York enters having won back-to-back games for the first time in a long time. Despite each team having to miss the playoffs this year, neither will be lacking for motivation as they seek another elusive victory. Additionally note that the Cavs have seen the total go under in all four games they’ve played in this season as a road dog of six points or less, while NY has seen the total dip under in 19 of 30 at home. This number is a tad high, play the under. |
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02-27-19 | Marquette v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on VILLANOVA (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). This is a big game. The Golden Eagles currently have a 1.5 games lead over the Wildcats for the conference lead. Marquette has won four in a row and 12 of its last 13, but with a chance to close the gap, I think the hungry home side delivers the goods tonight. I think Villanova comes in razor focused here after a disastrous road trip which saw it lose all three games. But a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered as the Wildcats have won 13 straight there. It’s a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of Villanova (additionally note that the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS this season after failing to cover in their previous outing). This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points, Villanova rolls. |
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02-27-19 | Pistons v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 93-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I’m playing on the SAN ANTONIO SPURS (10* PERS FAV). Detroit comes in having won three straight. The Pistons though have faced three Eastern conference opponents in the Pacers, Heat and Hawks. With the shift to the West Coast to face this desperate non-conference opponent, I believe the visitors have a typical “letdown” here. San Antonio comes in desperate after three straight losses to the Nets, Knicks and the Raptors to conclude an ugly annual Rodeo Road trip. San Antonio is struggling to find an identity still, but it’s now or never for the proud organization this season (note that the Spurs are 10-2 ATS this year as a home favorite of six points or less.) The situation and the trends are both working in favor of San Antonio in my opinion. Lay the points, Spurs roll. |
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02-26-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-121 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Oklahoma City Thunder (3* MAIN EVENT). Division battles are always the most important. The Thunder will be eager to return to form here after they were caught looking ahead to this one in their 119-116 home loss to the Kings on Saturday. The Nuggets come in off a 123-96 win over the Clippers on Sunday. Note though that the Thunder play with the added incentive of revenge today after dropping both previous meetings with the Nuggets this year. Note as well that OKC is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog this season and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 revenging a loss vs. an opponent. The Nuggets have been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this years, but note that they’re still just 3-5 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite. In a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. |
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02-26-19 | Providence v. Butler -6 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I’m playing on Butler (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). This is a big game. Both teams need a win here to keep their NCAA Tournament bids alive. I think that the home floor advantage can’t be understated as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. The Friars have now fallen into last place in the ten-team East after a 76-58 home loss to Marquette on Saturday. Providence has now lost six of its last eight games, managing to post 70 points just once in that span. Butler is coming off a 76-69 loss to Marquette last Wednesday. But as mentioned above, a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Bulldogs to get back on track as they’ve won their last two home games and they’re 4-3 at home in conference action. Finally note that the home team is 6-0 ATS the last six in this series. Lay the points, Butler rolls. |
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02-25-19 | Pacers v. Pistons -2.5 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Pacers come in off a 119-112 road win over Washington, while the Pistons posted a 119-96 road win over the Heat on Saturday. Detroit plays with revenge today though after the Pacers took the first matchup this year, 125-88 at home back on December 28th. With a chance to avenge that pathetic effort and to build off their latest victory, I’m expecting the Pistons to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Both teams have been red hot of late, but Detroit has the home floor advantage, and the revenge factor both clearly working in its favor today. I’ll also point out that the Pacers are just 7-9 ATS as a road dog this year, while the Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a blowout win by 15 points or more. Lay the points, Detroit rolls. |
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02-25-19 | Notre Dame +12.5 v. Florida State | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* MAIN EVENT). Outright win? Probably not. But Florida State comes in still “hung up” on its 77-59 loss to UNC last time out, a setback which snapped an eight-game win streak. The Irish come in as the much more focused team here as they’ll look to try and score the upset and off three straight losses to Virginia, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. I’m not going to try and tell you that FSU is an over-rated team, or that Notre Dame is better than what its record is currently. Because that’s not the case. I just think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Irish. Notre Dame comes in under the radar here and the Seminoles also get caught looking ahead to NC State coming to town next. No outright victory, but I’m expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points, Irish roll. |
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02-24-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | Top | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Orlando Magic (10* ANNIHILATOR). Toronto’s won seven in a row. The Raptors are playing at an extremely high level, but with the Celtics coming to town on Tuesday, there’s no question that this sets up as a look ahead spot for the home side. The Magic actually destroyed the Raptors 116-87 on December 28th and they come to town looking to get back to their winning ways after their five game win streak was snapped in a tight 110-109 loss to the Bulls last time out. With a game at the Knicks up next, the visitors can also put their full attention to this much more high-profile contest this evening. Note that Orlando is 5-1 ATS already this year after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games, while Toronto is just 3-5 ATS trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, Magic roll. |
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02-24-19 | Niagara v. St. Peter's -1.5 | Top | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
I’m playing on Saint Peters (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). Niagara comes in off a 97-81 loss to Rider and after dropping five of its last six, I think the Purple Eagles will have a difficult time here as well mustering much of an offensive attack. Saint Peters is moving in the opposite direction now, ending its losing streak with a 65-59 win over Marist as a 5.5 points underdog last time out. Niagara has been terrible in this spot as well, going 0-7 ATS in its last seven as a road dog of three points or less or pick. Saint Peters on the other hand has been fantastic in this spot, going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 off an upset win as an underdog. I’m expecting home floor to be a difference/advantage as well. Lay the points, Peacocks roll. |
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02-23-19 | Oregon v. UCLA -1.5 | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
I’m playing on UCLA (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Oregon was dumped 66-49 at USC last Thursday and I think the Ducks will struggle in this difficult road venue as well. UCLA rallied for a 68-67 home win over Oregon State last time out and I think it’ll build off that victory. This has been a difficult matchup for Oregon for a while and I believe that trend continues here (UCLA won the first meeting between the schools 87-84 in OT back on January 10th.) The Ducks have been great overall defensively this year (allowing 64.6 PPG), but their achilles heel has been their offense (only 69.5 PPG average. The Bruins are averaging 77.7 PPG and allowing 76.1.) I think Oregon struggles again to keep pace offensively this evening. Additionally note that the Bruins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while the Ducks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lay the points, UCLA rolls. |
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02-23-19 | Blazers v. 76ers -2 | Top | 130-115 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Philadelphia 76ers (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). Portland came out of the All Star break and posted an impressive 113-99 road win over Brooklyn, but I think it’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. The home side will be out to push the pace after a tougher than expected 106-102 home win over Miami on Thursday. The home side also plays with the added incentive of revenge this afternoon after falling 129-95 in the Pacific Northwest back on December 30th. Both teams can score and neither plays very hard on the defensive end, but I still think that the visitors are getting far too much respect in this spot. Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss, while Portland is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. teams with winning home records. Lay the points, 76ers roll. |
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02-22-19 | Pistons v. Hawks +3.5 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
I’m playing on (10*) the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks lost to the Knicks in their final game before the break, while the Pistons won four of their final five. Detroit though lost its finale to the Pistons and I think it’ll come out “flat” here to open the second half as well. Both teams are hungry and for the most part both are rested. The advantage today for Atlanta comes via “the home floor,” and also the fact that Detroit is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine when playing with three or more days rest, while Atlanta is 8-2 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss by 15 points or more as the favorite. Grab the points, Hawks roll. |
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02-22-19 | Canisius v. Monmouth -3 | Top | 60-59 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on Monmouth (10* VIOLATOR). Canisius enters off a 70-65 loss at home to Manhattan as a six points favorite most recently. The Golden Griffins three-game win streak was snapped in that one and I think the team is poised for another letdown here as well. Canisius has a target on its back tonight as it still holds the No. 1 sot in the conference. But Monmouth enters as the “hungrier” team here. After winning five straight, Monmouth comes in desperate to break a two-game slide, most recently a 75-67 loss to Marist as a 3.5 points home favorite. The Golden Griffins have struggled in this spot for bettors by going 5-9 ATS in their last 14 after a loss by six points or less. Monmouth on the other hand is already 3-1 ATS this year after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is what’s in store. Lay the points, Monmouth rolls. |
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02-21-19 | Oregon State v. UCLA -2 | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
I’m playing on UCLA (10* VIOLATOR). Oregon State enters off a highly satisfying 72-57 home win over rival Oregon on Saturday, while UCLA comes in off a humbling 104-80 setback to Stanford in its most recent action. The Bruins play with the added incentive of “revenge” here after falling 79-66 at Oregon State last month. UCLA is the “hungrier” team here. Note that the Bruins have been much better at home as well, as they’ve averaged 85 points on their own floor over the last three games. The Bruins also enjoy a significant rebounding edge as well, averaging 41.5 boards per game compared to only 36.2 for the Beavers (despite losing the first game, UCLA did win the rebounding battle in that one.) UCLA is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 following a loss of 20 points or more, while Oregon State is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games following three or more consecutive home games. I look for the “hungrier” team to get the job done. Lay the points, Bruins roll. |
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02-21-19 | Kings v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 123-125 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Golden State Warriors (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Warriors dominated down the stretch, but they got blown out 129-107 on the road in Portland in their final game before the break, clearly getting caught looking ahead to the time off (starters were also rested.) Sacramento has been a “surprise” this year and it still has a chance at making the playoffs. The future is bright for the Kings, but the fact remains that they average 113.4 PPG, while allowing 114.6. Golden State on the other hand averages 118.8 PPG and it allows 111.7. The Kings are also only 8-13 ATS as a road underdog this season, while the Warriors are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 when playing with three or more days rest. Expect the defending champs to send a message to the rest of the league to open the second half. Lay the points, Warriors roll. |
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02-20-19 | Massachusetts v. George Washington +2 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on George Washington (10* BEST BET). Neither side instills much confidence. UMass is 9-16 and George Washington is 7-18. Both teams come in on horrible losing streaks. The Colonials have lost four straight, most recently to Duquesne, while the Minutemen are 2-11 in their last 13, suffering a heartbreaking OT loss to George Mason in their latest action. This has been a terrible matchup for UMass whenever its come to town though and I believe that trend carries over here. George Washington has won five straight in this series and it’s 22-9 all time at home vs. the Minutemen. UMass has lost eight straighten the road, averaging 62.8 points and conceding 70.6 in those contests. The Minutemen are also just 1-4 ATS in their last I’ve vs. teams with losing records. Add it all up, and I expect George Washington to find a way to get the job done. Play on the home side. |
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02-19-19 | St. Peter's +7.5 v. Siena | Top | 62-72 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on Saint Peters (10* BEST BET). Saint Peter’s closes out the regular season with two straight road games. Both will be tough and it’ll be the underdog in each. Including tonight vs. Siena. The Peacocks though won’t be lacking for motivation after dropping seven straight, most recently a 71-65 setback to Rider. The Peacocks have to be feeling confident here as well as they’d prevail 65-50 over the Saints at home in early January. Sienna is firmly in fifth spot (after being picked to finish 10th), but it comes in on terrible form, having dropped two straight at home. Saint Peters is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Siena is just 5-7 ATS at home and only 5-8 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, Peacocks roll. |
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02-18-19 | Idaho v. Eastern Washington OVER 141 | Top | 57-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
I’m playing on the over Idaho/Eastern Washington (10* BLUE CHIP). The lowly 4-20 Idaho Vandals won’t be lacking for motivation here after dropping their tenth straight game (75-47 to Northern Colorado.) The Vandals average 65.3 PPG, which isn’t great obviously. But Idaho has been much worse on the other end of the court by allowing 78.2 PPG. The Eastern Washington Eagles haven’t been much better at 9-15 overall this season, but they did just break a two-game slide with an 88-78 OT win over Northern Colorado on Saturday. Eastern Washington averages and concedes exactly 77.00 PPG this season. Note that Idaho has seen the total go over in all four games it’s played in this year as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while Eastern Washington has seen the total go over in six of seven as a favorite this season. This number is a little low, play the over. |
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02-17-19 | Arizona v. Colorado UNDER 140.5 | Top | 60-67 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
I’m playing on the under Arizona/Colorado (10* BLUE CHIP). Two teams currently on the bubble collide in this one and I think we have a defensive battle on our hands in this one. Arizona is in a “free fall” right now, sitting in tenth place in the Pac 12. Injuries have played a big part in the Wildcats slide. The good news for Arizona though is that it still only sits 2.5 games back of third place. The Wildcats have their work cut out for them to make a seventh straight Tournament, likely needing to sweep the rest of the regular season to earn contention. When these teams played in Arizona on January 3rd, Arizona managed the 64-56 home win and I’m expecting a similar hard-fought, lower-scoring battle here as well. The Buffs have won four straight and they’re also still eyeing a Tournament berth. Most recently Colorado held on for a 77-73 home win over Arizona State. Will Colorado get caught looking ahead to its game vs. Pac 12 leader Washington on the road next Saturday? It better not! Regardless note that Arizona has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 following a loss, while Colorado has seen the total go under in its last seven home games where the total is between 135 and 140.5. Play the under. |
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02-16-19 | Washington v. Washington State +8.5 | Top | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on Washington State (10* REVENGE BEST OF BEST). UW destroyed WSU 85-67 in December, but that was then and this is now. The Cougars played without leading scorer Robert Franks in the first matchup this season, but he’s back in the line-up now (WSU lost all four games he missed in December.) Franks though comes in on top form and I think he’ll be an “X-factor” here as well in this revenge scenario. Ranks posted 34 points and 13 rebounds in a win over ASU last week, before then going off for 31 points and eight boards in a victory over Arizona. WSU lost both games to the Huskies last year as well, but Franks was a bright spot by averaging 19 points and 10.5 boards. UW on the other hand has been dealing with a flu bug, which led to mixed results last week. The Huskies have turned the ball over 52 times in their last three games, including 17 in their most recent setback to ASU. This one has “upset” written all over it, but I’m still going to grab the points. Grab the points, WSU rolls. |
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02-15-19 | Northern Kentucky +1 v. Wright State | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
I’m playing on Northern Kentucky (10* BEST BET). I like the 20-6 Northern Kentucky Norse to find a way to get the job done here vs. the 15-11 Wright Raiders on Friday night. UNK enters off a 79-64 home win over Oakland last time out, while Wright State also picked up a victory in its latest action, pulling away 83-60 over Detroit on Saturday. The Norse earned the tough 68-64 win in the first matchup between the schools at home back on January 11th and I expect a similar result here as well. This is an important game, as the Norse are in No. 1 in the Horizon League at 10-3, while Wright State is directly behind. But while the Raiders have been on a decent run over the last month, their numbers do match up well against the Norse. As we come down the stretch, I think UNK’s depth will prove to be the difference. Northern Kentucky averages 79.6 PPG an fit allows 67.3. Wright State averages 73.3 PPG and it allows 68.4. I like Northern Kentucky to continue its dominance in this series. Norse roll. |
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02-14-19 | Northern Colorado v. Idaho +11 | Top | 75-47 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on Idaho (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). After back-to-back wins and victories in five of its last six, I think that Northern Colorado stumbles here. Well, has enough of a letdown anyways for the hungry home side to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. The Bears most recently held on for a 65-59 win over Sacramento State. On the season the Bears average 77.3 PPG. The Vandals only average 68.8, but after losing nine in a row, we definitely don’t have to question Idaho’s focus this evening. This is way too many points to be giving up, as Idaho just took Northern Colorado to OT in a loss just last month. The Vandals play with revenge and they’re desperate for a victory of any sorts. Northern Colorado runs out of gas on Thursday and the home side keeps it much closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points, Vandals roll. |
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02-14-19 | Thunder v. Pelicans +3.5 | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New Orleans Pelicans (10* GAME OF THE MONTH). OKC enters off a 120-111 home win over Portland, while New Orleans comes in off a humbling 118-88 loss at home to Orlando. This is a revenge game of sort for the Pelicans as well, as the Thunder have taken two of three in the season series, including the latest matchup 122-116 back on January 24th. The Thunder come in on top form having won four straight, but with the All Star game up next and with Paul George and Russell Westbrook both headed to the festivities, I think the visitors get caught “looking ahead” to the much needed time off. The Pelicans of course are in a period of transition with star Anthony Davis having already decided to leave the team after the season is done. Davis had just 3 points in his team’s loss last time out, but I expect the big man to bounce back and play like a professional here. The 3 points were the fewest points he’s put up in his career (when playing a minimum of 21 minutes) and I believe he’ll take that personally. I expect the visitors to “check out” of this one early and for the home side to play with some determination after getting “shellacked” so badly last time out. Grab the points, Pelicans roll. |
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02-13-19 | Kings v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 118-120 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) How motivated are these teams to win their final game before the All Star break? In my opinion, I think this one mean a lot “more” to the home side. The Kings have been playing great of late having won five of their last six. But would anyone fault Sacramento for finally having a letdown here before the break? The Nuggets though are in a fight still for top spot in the West and I can’t see them taking the foot off the gas quite yet after winning seven of their last ten. Sacramento is also just 2-8 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 4-10 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with winning records. I think the home side keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, Nuggets roll. |
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02-13-19 | South Florida v. UCF -6.5 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on UCF (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) Clearly this is a big game. UCF sits a half game ahead of USF in the AAC standings. In a contest like this, I think that the “home floor” advantage is going to be significant. USF almost got caught “looking ahead” to this one, as it needed OT to get past lowly ECU 72-68 at home last time out. The Bulls were sloppy, turning the ball over 20 times and I think they’re going to struggle in this difficult arena as well. UCF downed SMU 71-65 on the road in its latest action. The Knights have to be feeling supremely confident that they can keep the momentum rolling as well as they’ve covered four straight at home in this series. Lay the points, UCF rolls. |
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02-12-19 | Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 229 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Jazz/Warriors under (10* BLUE CHIP). Both teams come in hot. The defending champs have won four straight and the visitors have won two straight. After defeating the Spurs last time out the Jazz are now ranked sixth in the West. Utah was very efficient in the victory by shooting 52.2 percent and winning the rebounding battle 59-40. The Warriors always have a “target on their back” every time they take the floor and that wasn’t any different in their tougher than expected victory over the Heat last time out. But the last thing the Jazz will want to do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the Golden State sharp-shooters on their own floor. With the visitors doing everything they can to control the pace, I think tonight’s game sets up as more of a defensive affair. Note that Utah has seen the total go under in four of its last five after a blowout home win of 20 or more points as well. This number is a little bit high, play the under. |
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02-12-19 | Pittsburgh v. Boston College -2.5 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
I’m playing on Boston College (10* SPECIAL) BC will be desperate to avoid another loss here and drop down in the cellar of the ACC. A date vs. the hapless Panthers is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as Pittsburgh comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. The Panthers weakness this year? Clearly it’s been their play on the road, as they enter having lost five straight conference road games. Pittsburgh has injury issues to deal with as well, as starting forward Malik Ellison is expected to be out for a second straight game with an injury. After a 67-57 loss to the Orange, BC looks to bounce back at home. The Eagles have responded well in this spot as well, going 4-1 ATS in their last five after two or more consecutive road losses. The Panthers on the other hand are a miserable 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog of six points or less or pick. Look for home floor to play a big role in the final outcome. Lay the points, Eagles roll. |
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02-11-19 | Kansas +2 v. TCU | Top | 82-77 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
I’m playing on Kansas (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, Kansas has issues. It’s playing through injuries and it’s lost four of its last seven, but it got back on track with a win at home over OKS on Saturday and I believe the storied program can carry that momentum over here vs. a complacent TCU side which has won straight over OKS and Iowa State. Here’s Kansas coach Bill Self on tonight’s game: “We did not have any [energy] in Manhattan (against Kansas State),” Self assessed. “We have to go down there (to TCU) with a purpose and a focus. People talk about running plays and all that. It doesn’t matter what you run as long as you have energy and passion. It’s contagious. I think we have some guys out there we can feed off of.” TCU’s been playing a lot better of late, but you’d think that the way the team reacted after its first road win vs. a ranked team in 21 years last time out that they’d actually won the National Championship. After that emotional win, I think an immediate letdown is imminent here. Clearly the outright isn’t out of the question, but in a game which I foresee coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. |
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02-11-19 | Nets +10.5 v. Raptors | Top | 125-127 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Nets (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Outright upset? Probably not. But I do think that the sliding Nets will be playing with extreme determination tonight. Brooklyn comes to town focused after a humbling 125-106 home loss to the Bulls on Friday, while Toronto enters off a more difficult than expected 104-99 road win over the Knicks. These teams have split two games so far this year. But after dropping five of their last six, I think that the Nets are clearly the more desperate team in this matchup, as the Raptors enter having won four straight. Additionally note that the Nets are a near-perfect 6-1 ATS this season when playing with two days rest, while the Raptors are just 13-14 ATS at home and just 2-10 ATS after covering three of its last four vs. the spread. Grab the points, Nets roll. |
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02-10-19 | East Carolina +14 v. South Florida | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on East Carolina (10* BEST BET) Would anyone fault the Bulls for looking past their lowly opponent today? While I’m stopping short in calling for the outright, I do think that the Bulls, who enter having won four straight, will come into this one a bit complacent. The Pirates won’t be lacking for motivation today that’s for sure as they’ve lost two in a row and 13 of their first 22. Not surprisingly the Pirates play with revenge here after falling 77-57 at home earlier in the year. But with a game at UCF up next for USF, the team sitting just one spot ahead of it in the standings, I think the home side not only comes out complacent, but it also gets caught looking ahead. It’s a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of the visitors today. Grab the points, ECU rolls. |
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02-10-19 | Lakers +7 v. 76ers | Top | 120-143 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
I’m playing on the LA Lakers (10* BEST BET) Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question here, but in what I expect to be a very competitive battle, I’m going to grab the points. The Lakers come off perhaps a season defining 129-128 road win in Boston on Thursday and I think they carry that momentum over here. The 76ers come in off a 117-110 home win over Denver. The Lakers play with revenge here though after Philadelphia won 121-105 in LA back on January 29th. The Lakers finally have LBJ back at 100% health and he posted a triple-double in the win over the C’s. While the 76ers are firmly entrenched as one of the top teams in the East, the Lakers can ill afford to take the foot off the gas right now as they’re still 1.5 games back of the Clippers for the final playoff spot. This one simply means more to James and company and I believe that fact will be the difference maker here. Additionally note LA is 9-5 ATS this season as a road dog, while the 76ers are only 19-20 ATS as the favorite this year. Grab the points, Lakers roll. |
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02-09-19 | Hornets v. Hawks +2.5 | Top | 129-120 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Hawks (10* BEST BET) Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question here, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points. The Hornets come in off a 99-93 road loss in Dallas, while Atlanta fell 119-101 to Toronto in its most recent action. This is a revenge game for the Hawks, as Charlotte has taken two of three in the season series this year, including a 108-94 win at home in the most recent on November 28th. Both teams comes in hungry, but I think that the home floor will be the difference for this improving Hawks team. And note as well that Charlotte is only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while ATL is 6-1 ATS in its last seven off a home loss of ten points or more. Grab the points, Hawks roll. |
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02-09-19 | Minnesota v. Michigan State -13 | Top | 55-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
I’m playing on Michigan State (10* MAIN EVENT). Enough is enough! After three straight losses, I’m expecting the home side to lay the hammer down from start to finish here. After starting the Big 10 season at 9-0, the Spartans are now 9-3 after a shocking setback to Illinois earlier in the week. Despite the losing streak though, MSU remains one of the top teams in the nation on paper and I simply have a hard time seeing the Golden Gophers keeping pace. The Spartans average 119.6 points per 100 possessions and they allow only 98.6 points per 100 possessions. The Gophers come in having dropped two straight themselves. Minnesota averages 110.2 points per 100 possessions and it allows 97.5. MSU has done well in this spot for bettors as well, going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 (the Gophers on the other hand are still only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 on the road!) Lay the the points, Spartans roll. |
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02-08-19 | Bulls +8.5 v. Nets | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls (10* VIOLATOR) The Bulls came up short in their 125-120 home loss to New Orleans last time out, but I think they can come in under the radar here and keep this one competitive vs. the complacent Nets, who pulled away for a satisfying 135-130 home victory over the Nuggets. Chicago plays with revenge as well. In fact the Bulls have lost six straight in this series, including a 122-117 road loss on January 29th. Note that Chicago did make a good pick up at the trade deadline, moving Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker to Washington for Otto Porter Jr. The Nets are comfortably in eighth spot in the East, but note that they’re just 2-5 ATS in their last seven after allowing 130 points or more. Chicago on the other hand has responded well in this spot, going 9-4 ATS in its last 13 after a loss by six points or less. I think the hungrier team keeps this one competitive late. Grab the points, Bulls roll. |
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02-08-19 | St. Louis v. St. Joe's +3 | Top | 61-91 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
I’m playing on St. Joseph’s (10* BEST BET) This is a revenge game for the Hawks after they feel 68-57 on the road in the first matchup this season. St. Louis enters off a satisfying 73-60 home win over Dayton, while St. Joe’s comes in hungry after its 89-63 loss to La Salle on the road. The Hawks are 0-5 on the road in league play, but there was a silver lining behind their latest loss as they’d go on to hit a season-high 14 threes. The Hawks are out for revenge and they’re desperate for a victory. Note as well that Saint Louis is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year and only 5-11 ATS when playing the role of favorite, while St. Joe’s is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog of six points or less or pick. I think a little “home cooking” is just what St. Joe’s needs here in this situation. Grab the points. |
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02-07-19 | Grizzlies v. Thunder -14 | Top | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
I’m playing on the OKC Thunder (10* PERS FAV). I’m expecting a massive blowout here. The Grizz come to town off a highly satisfying 108-106 home win over the Wolves, while OKC pulled away for a 132-122 home win over Orlando on Tuesday. These teams haven’t played yet this year, but OKC has won seven straight in the series. The Grizz may have beaten bottom feeders New York and Memphis, but their achilles heels has been their play on the road where they’re just 11-16-1 ATS. The Grizz average only 100.4 PPG, while allowing 103.4. OKC is 14-11 ATS at home and it averages 115.2 PPG, while allowing 110. Memphis is still working on trying to trade Mike Conley and Marc Gasol and I believe it’s in well over its head here facing Russell Westbrook on his home floor, as he enters having posted seven straight triple-doubles. This line could/should be higher. Lay the points, Thunder roll. |
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02-07-19 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Troy State -5.5 | Top | 84-70 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
I’m playing on Troy (10* PERS FAV) Arkansas Little Rock is in last place in the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas Little Rock did beat Troy and Alabama earlier in the season, but it comes in having lost five straight. The Trojans come in having lost three straight (all on the road), but they’ll be eager for revenge and to bounce back in familiar surroundings. The Trojans struggled defensively in their latest setback to South Alabama, but they were very efficient offensively, shooting 56.6 percent from the floor and 52.6 percent from range. Facing putrid Arkansas Little Rock, I like the Trojans to carry that offensive momentum over here as well (Little Rock averages 74.8 PPG and Troy averages 77.0). I think Arkansas Little Rock’s road issues continue. Lay the points, Troy rolls. |
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02-06-19 | Pelicans v. Bulls | Top | 125-120 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls (10* VIOLATOR) I think the Bulls get the job done on their home floor. The Pelicans played bravely without Anthony Davis in the line-up on Monday vs. the Pacers, but they came up short in the 109-107 setback. The Bulls enter off a 125-118 road loss in Charlotte, but they play with “triple revenge” here after losing three straight in the series, including the first one this season 107-98 on the road on November 7th. The Pelicans have now lost three straight and six of their last seven. New Orleans is just 13-15-1 ATS on the road. Chicago is only 10-15 ATS at home this year, but they’re a red hot 11-4 ATS in their last 15 when playing with three or more days rest. The Pelicans in contrast are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest. The stage is set for a home side blowout. Bulls roll. |
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02-06-19 | Baylor +3 v. Texas | Top | 72-84 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
I’m playing on Baylor (10* MAIN EVENT) I like the 15-6 Baylor Bears to score the slight upset on the road (that said, I’m still grabbing the points!) Baylor is 6-2 in the Big 12 and it comes in on top form. The Bears have won six straight overall and six straight in this series. The Longhorns on the other hand have lost three of four, including most recently at Iowa State 65-60 on Saturday. Baylor’s rolling, but it’s still not ranked. The Bears smashed TCU 90-65 at home most recently and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. The Longhorns are only 4-5 in league play and they’re only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 at home. Baylor on the other hand is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. the conference and 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road. Grab the points, Baylor rolls. |
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02-05-19 | Celtics -12 v. Cavs | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Boston CELTICS (10* GAME OF WEEK) Kyrie Irving won’t be in the line-up when Boston Celtics travel to Cleveland to take on the rebuilding Cavaliers on Tuesday, but I don’t think it’ll hardly matter. Cleveland of course is still playing without Kevin Love, it also recently traded Rodney Hood to Portland for future draft picks. Cleveland has two nights off before a game in the Nation’s capital on Friday night, so a possible “look ahead” isn’t out of the question for the home side either. Boston has won four straight, but I don’t think it’ll be taking anything for granted here with much more difficult upcoming games vs. the Lakers, Clippers and 76ers. Additionally note that Boston is 12-5 ATS already this year after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games, while the Cavs are only 9-13 ATS as a home underdog this season. Lay the points, Celtics roll. |
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02-05-19 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan +4.5 | Top | 85-72 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
I’m playing on Western Michigan (10* VIOLATOR) I think the “hungrier” home side keeps this one close late. WMU is 6-15 overall and it’s going to be eager to snap an eight-game slide. Would anyone fault the 15-6 Bowling Green Falcons for coming in a tiny bit complacent here? They’re 11-1 in their last 12 and they enter off their biggest win of the campaign at home over Buffalo last Friday. It is considered by most as being the programs biggest victory in over a decade. This is a revenge game as well for the Broncos after they were whipped 79-48 at the Stroh Center on January 19th. WMU is desperate for a league victory and I think the conditions are finally right for that scenario to happen. That said, in a game which I envision coming down to the final moments, let’s grab the points. |
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02-04-19 | Hawks v. Wizards -6 | Top | 137-129 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
10* play on the Washington Wizards. I think the Hawks will stumble in the Nation’s capital tonight. The Hawks come in off a highly satisfying 118-112 win over Phoenix on Saturday, while the Wizards enter off a humbling 131-115 loss at home to Milwaukee. If recent history is anything to go by though, then the Wizards have to be loving their chances for a bounce back performance tonight as they’ve already taken two of three in this season series, including a convincing 114-98 home win in the most recent matchup at the beginning of the year. Atlanta is already 3-3 on this seven game road trip, a record which it couldn’t have dreamed of obtaining before the trek started. I think the visitors come in very complacent here as they look ahead to time off and a long home stretch. The Wizards are still only 2.5 games back of Miami for a playoff spot and after getting trounced by the Bucks last time out, I believe they come in focused and take advantage of this spot. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a double-digit loss at home, while the Hawks 0-5 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Lay the points, Washington rolls. |
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02-04-19 | Fairfield v. Siena -5 | Top | 50-61 | Win | 100 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
10* play on Siena (10* PERS FAV) I think Fairfield stumbles on the road here. The Stags have been alternating wins/losses over their last four games, including holding on for a 57-52 victory over Marist in their most recent. Fairfield averages 69.4 PPG, while Siena averages 63.2. The Saints though make it up on the other end of the court and they enter on top form having won five of their last seven. The Saints have had the Stags “number” in this matchup of late, going 4-1 ATS the last five in the series. The Stags are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five on the road. I think home floor is big for Siena as I look for the Saints to continue their dominance in this match-up. Lay the points, Siena rolls. |
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02-03-19 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 230 | Top | 103-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP on the under Clippers/Raptors. LA went down early against Detroit yesterday, but the Clippers rallied for an improbable victory and I think the last thing they’ll want to do here is to try and turn this into a “run and gun” affair with the up-tempo Raptors. Toronto enters off a poor 105-92 loss at home to Milwaukee. LA plays with revenge here after the Raptors claimed a 123-99 road victory in the first matchup between the clubs on December 11th. The Clippers are actually 14-11 on the road this year and the under is 14-10-1 in those contests. Additionally note that LA has seen the total go under the number in all five games it’s played in this year when trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. This sets up as a defensive affair, not a shootout. Play the under. |
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02-03-19 | East Carolina v. Connecticut -13 | Top | 52-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
10* PERS FAV on Connecticut. I’m expecting a decisive victory today for the 12-9 UConn Huskies over the 9-12 ECU Pirates. The Pirates have yet to win on the road in conference action and I think they’ll have a difficult time again here. Since joining the ACC, East Carolina hasn’t won more than six league games and it’s 7-33 on the road in conference play overall. And after holding on for 66-65 win over Tulane on Thursday, an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion (note the Pirates are 0-7 on the road this year, shooting a putrid 18.9 percent from range and 37.3 percent overall, while also getting outscored by 18.5 points in the process!) UConn is 6-1 in this matchup. The Huskies are 11-2 at home, averaging 82.2 PPG and outscoring their opposition by 16.0 PPG in those contests. This one screams blowout. Lay the point, because UConn rolls. |
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02-02-19 | Hawks v. Suns -2 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Phoenix Suns. It’s been a miserable season for Phoenix, it comes in at 11-42 overall and on a nine games overall losing streak. No excuses for the Suns here though as they’ll look to take advantage of the 16-34 Hawks. ATL is just 8-21 on the road and it’s in action on Friday night in Utah as well. And with one night off before a divisional contest in the nation’s capital on Monday, it also sets up as a trap/look-ahead for the visitors. Phoenix is all about earning that No. 1 pick in the lottery next year, but it’s going to win a few more games this season. And this is one of them. Lay the points, Suns finally roll to a convincing victory in front of the home town crowd. |
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02-02-19 | North Texas -7 v. Charlotte | Top | 73-66 | Push | 0 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on North Texas. I think this spread could/should be a lot larger. UNT is 18-4, but it won’t be taking anything for granted here as it looks to move back on top of the conference. The Mean Green most recently fell 72-61 to ODU this past Thursday to drop to second in the standings. A game vs. lowly Charlotte is just what the doctor ordered to snap the slide. The 49ers are terrible, 5-16 overall and just 2-8 in Conference play, including a 65-61 loss to Rice last time out. UNT though has been money in the bank for bettors in this spot, going 7-1 ATS in its last eight after scoring 62 points or less in a conference loss in its previous outing. I’m laying the points and expect the Mean Green to roll! |
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02-01-19 | Hawks v. Jazz -11.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
I’m playing on the JAZZ (10* PERS FAV) The Hawks have for the most part struggled this year, especially on the road. Most recently they got smoked 135-113 in Sacramento on Wednesday. Utah enters off a poor effort as well, falling 132-105 on the road in Portland on Wednesday, but I think the Jazz can bounce back in big fashion in friendly confines. These teams played twice last year and the Hawks somehow inexplicably took both. Atlanta averages 110.2 points and it allows 117.9. The Jazz on the other hand average 108.6 PPG and they allow 105.7. Utah is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 following a SU loss as well. Lay the points, Jazz roll. |
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02-01-19 | Davidson -2 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
I’m playing on DAVIDSON (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) After three straight wins, I look fro Davidson to continue that progression and to find a way to get the job done vs. the Bonnies, who have two in a row. Davidson is 15-5 overall and 6-1 in A-10 action, most recently holding on for a 54-53 win at Saint Louis. Last season Davidson outlasted St. Bonaventure in a thrilling triple OT contest, but I’m expecting a much more decisive victory tonight. The Bonnies feature plenty of talent, but they still feature three freshman in the starting lineup, making it the only team in the conference to have that many. St. Bonaventure is also just 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning records. Look for Davidson’s depth and experience to prove to be too much for the Bonnies once again. |
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01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2.5 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
Dallas has admittedly looked a lot better this year than last (10* END OF MONTH BLOWOUT). It’s been competitive thanks in large part to the play of dynamic rookie Luca Doncic. The Mavs though had the foot on the gas from the opening tip until the final horn in their 114-90 win over the Knicks in New York just last night and I think they’ll be tired coming to the Motor City. Detroit’s hungry to avoid a three-game slide. It’s also out to avenge a loss to Dallas just last week. Previous to their win over the Knicks that Mavs had lost four of six and overall the road hasn’t been kind to Dallas. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS the last five in this series and that strong trend carries over. Lay the points, Pistons roll. |
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01-30-19 | Mavs v. Knicks OVER 217 | Top | 114-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/NY to finish OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). The Knicks have seen four straight games stay below the total. Facing a Dallas team which combined with Toronto for 243 (regulation) points last time out, I'm fully expecting that 'under' streak to come to an end this evening. Note that these teams combined for 224 in this season's earlier meeting, the Knicks managing a 118-106 upset, as 5.5 point road underdogs. Including that result, the Knicks have seen the OVER go 10-5 against Western Conf. opponents. As for the Mavs, they've seen the OVER go 5-2 when attempting to avenge a home loss, a 2-0 OVER mark when attempting to avenge a double-digit home loss. Expect more offensive fireworks this evening. |
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01-29-19 | Ohio State +9 v. Michigan | Top | 49-65 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE (10* BEST BET). Off an upset win at Nebraska, losing streak now in the rear view mirror, I expect the Buckeyes to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Note that they're a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit upset (SU win as an underdog) win. During the same span, they're 4-0 ATS, after having dropped five of their previous six games. The Wolverines are tough but not unbeatable. They were laying -12.5 points for their last home game and won by only two. Expect them to have their hands full, once again. Grab the points. |
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01-29-19 | Bucks v. Pistons +6.5 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pistons are going to be motivated to avoid the season sweep. I believe that they're catching the Bucks at the right time. Milwaukee had been hot but got cooled off its last game. Though the Bucks have been tough off a road loss, they've got a revenge game against Toronto on deck and I feel it may be easy to look past Detroit. That's going to prove costly though as the Pistons have Drummond back now and he's got a game under his belt. That makes them a far stronger team, as the combination of Griffin and Drummond is formidable. The Pistons are back home, after three straight on the road. While they're 4-4 SU their last eight overall, three of the four losses came by six or less. They're 16-7-1 ATS their last 24, off three straight on the road and 3-0 ATS their last three when listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range. Expect a big effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover this evening. |
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01-28-19 | Warriors v. Pacers +8.5 | Top | 132-100 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Warriors have been on an impressive run. They're at the end of a 5-game road trip here though; off their big win at Boston and with big home games against the likes of Philadelphia, LA and San Antonio on deck, it should be easy to suffer a slight letdown against an Indiana team missing Oladipo. That'll prove costly though as the Pacers are still capable and still playing hard. They're especially tough to beat here at Indiana. Indeed, they're 12-2 here since the start of December, 3-0 their last three. Their 18-6 home record is actually better than the Warriors' 17-8 road mark. With the Pacers, who beat the Warriors both meetings last season, at 17-5 ATS the last 22 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range, I'm grabbing the points. |
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01-28-19 | Duke v. Notre Dame +14 | Top | 83-61 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* MAIN EVENT). Needless to say, Duke has some impressive players. That said, I feel that the Blue Devils are laying too many points here. Duke's last five games have been decided by an average of seven points, none of those by more than 15. The Irish, 14-7-1 ATS the last 22 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 150s, got blown out by Virginia last time out. That was their first loss by more than 15 all season though and they're going to be highly motivated to avoid a repeat performance. It hasn't happened often over the years but, if we go back we find that the Irish are 2-0 ATS when off a home loss of 20 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats with their best effort this evening. |
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01-27-19 | Florida State v. Miami-FL +4 | Top | 78-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). The Seminoles have shown no reason to believe that they can cover as road favorites. In fact, they're 0-10-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were road favorites, or pick'em. Thats ugly. That includes an 0-6-1 ATS mark as road favorites of six or less, five of those resulting in outright losses. The Hurricanes hung tough at Tallahassee a couple of weeks ago, losing by six as 10-point underdogs. They're 10-3 ATS (12-1 SU!) the last 13 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. They're also 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were off b2b conference losses, 2-0 ATS this season. Expect them to bounce back with a big effort en route to AT LEAST the cover. |
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01-26-19 | 76ers v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 110-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER (10* GAME OF MONTH). I successfully played against the Nuggets recently. However, that was at Utah. Now, they're playing at home, where they've been nearly unbeatable. They already bounced back from the Utah loss by returning home and crusing the Suns by 37 points last night. Note that the Nuggets are 6-1 SU, when playing the second of b2b game and that last night's game was not exactly taxing. The Nuggets are now 21-4 here, 17-8 against the number. Thats the best home record in the West. The 76'ers, meanwhile, are 11-12 on the road. They've had Embid for most of those games, too. He's out tonight though. Needless to say, thats a big loss. Making matters worse, Butler saw a specialist for his wrist in LA yesterday and is considered doubtful, as I write this. The 76ers swept the Nuggets last season. Catching them short-handed, expect the Nuggets to get some payback with a double-digit win tonight. |
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01-26-19 | Auburn v. Mississippi State | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The SEC is deep and full of talented teams. These two are among them. Auburn has beaten the Bulldogs each of the past two seasons. While this season's Tigers are another solid team, I expect an experienced MSU team, playing on its home floor, to rise to the occasion and get some payback. Auburn is mediocre on the road. The Bulldogs are 10-1 on this floor, 29-5 the past few seasons. They brought more back from last year than did Auburn and I expect that to be evident here. Homecourt proves the difference. |
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01-26-19 | Marquette v. Xavier OVER 144 | Top | 87-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Marquette/Xavier OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). The Musketeers has real trouble scoring when these teams met at Marquette. Playing on their home floor, they're going to have considerably more offensive success. Stopping Marquette is an entirely different matter. The Golden Eagles can and do score anywhere. The OVER is 17-7 their last 24 on the road, 3-1 this season. This season's road games have averaged 164.5 combined points, each producing a minimum of 145. Last season's game produced 159 points. However, it had an O/U line of 164.5. We're working with a much lower number here and I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair. |
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01-25-19 | Wizards v. Magic -4 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO (3* VIOLATOR). The Wizards eked out a cover against the Warriors last night, losing by eight as a 9-point dog. After hosting the champs, don't be surprised when they experience a letdown, for a road game against the Magic the next night. While the Wizards were fighting hard, the Magic had yesterday off. The home team has already taken both meetings, the Magic winning by nine here at Orlando. (The Magic also won the previous game here, last spring, by nine.) While the Magic are 3-4 their last seven, they've been competitive in all four of the losses and they scored a minimum of 105 points in all seven of those games. Schedule in their favor, expect them to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off five or more consecutive games where they scored 105 or more points. |
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01-24-19 | Wolves v. Lakers OVER 229 | Top | 120-105 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/LA to finish OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). Both teams are coming in thinking they're going to win this one. Neither is going to go away. Both are going to be happy to push the pace. I won with the T-Wolves in their last game, a blowout win at Phoenix. That result is noteworthy as the OVER is 4-0 when the Wolves were off a road win of 20 points or more. The Wolves have now hit tripled-digits in 15 straight games, scoring at least 107 in nine straight. The Lakers have allowed triple-digits in seven straight games. Over their last three, they've given up 128, 138 and 130. At the same time, they've scored 138, 134 and 111. Expect a shootout. |
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01-24-19 | Green Bay v. Northern Kentucky -9 | Top | 65-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN KENTUCKY (10* VIOLATOR). The Norse won both meetings last year. For the game here, they were laying -16.5 points. This season, with the line having come from its opener adding to the value, we're getting them at a considerably lower number. The Norse are undefeated at home this season and they're coming in hot. This season's 11-0 record brings them to 35-4 on this floor the past 2+ years. The Norse are going to be put up a big number tonight. They've scored 73 or more in six or their last seven, 91 and 82 their last two games. Note that they're 9-3-1 ATS (10-3 SU) the past 13 times that they were off b2b games where they scored 80 or more. The Phoenix have allowed 76 or more points in 10 straight games, 80 or more in all but one of those. For the season, they allow an obscene 87.6 ppg on the road. The defensively-challenged Phoenix have played two road games in 2019. Both resulted in double-digit losses. Expect more of the same here. |
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01-23-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH (10* MAIN EVENT). Homecourt always means a lot to both of these teams and it always means a lot when they face each other. Including a 103-88 win on Nov. 3rd, the Nuggets are a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they hosted the Jazz. Conversely, with a 106-77 destruction a few weeks later, on 11/28, the Jazz are a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that the hosted the Nuggets. All seven wins came by a minimum of four points. This season, the Nuggets are a dominating 20-4 at home but a modest 11-10 on the road. The Jazz are 13-13 on the road but 13-9 at home. Utah arguably needs this game more. Expect a huge effort from the Jazz and homecourt again ultimately proving the difference. |
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01-23-19 | Purdue v. Ohio State +1.5 | Top | 79-67 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Winless in 2019, the Buckeyes badly need this one. I expect them to rise to the occasion and get it. Note that the Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they were listed as home underdogs, or pick'em. Lets not forget that they're 37-11 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. As of this writing, most books have the O/U line at 140.5. I mention that as Purdue is just 6-16 ATS (5-17 SU!) the past 22 times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range, 1-4 ATS their last five in that situation. Last season's games were both decided by a single point, each time winning once. Over recent years, the Buckeyes have dominated the Boilermakers though, particularly here in Columbus. This one may well come down to the wire, too. In the end, look for the Buckeyes to be the team which emerges victorious. |
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01-22-19 | Wolves -5 v. Suns | Top | 118-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Suns gave the T-Wolves all they could handle a couple of days ago, at Minnesota. The Wolves still won though and now we're getting them at a far lower line, due to the venue. However, with a 7-17 record here, homecourt doesn't mean much to the Suns though. The Wolves are still fighting for a playoff spot while the Suns are destined for the lottery. They're expected to be without Ayton (currently doubtful) here, made worse by the possible (likely?) absence of Richaun Homels, which is going to mean Towns is destined for a field day. Expect an inspired effort from the Wolves, as they improve to 7-1 ATS, after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their previous six games. |
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01-22-19 | Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan -2 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN (10* VIOLATOR). Bowling Green comes in on an impressive winning streak. However, I believe that Eastern Michigan opened as the favorite for good reason and I expect the Falcons' run to come to an end here. After losing a pair of OT games against the Falcons last season, the Eagles have had this one circled. This is an experienced team which brought back most of last year's players; they haven't forgotten. Keep in mind that many picked the Eagles to finish near the top of the MAC West and the Falcons to finish in, or near, the basement of the East. The Eagles won their last game on this floor by a score of 95-61. Expect another win and cover tonight. |
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01-21-19 | Warriors -11 v. Lakers | Top | 130-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs have a score to settle. You may recall that the Lakers embarrassed them on National TV on Christmas Day, at Oracle. Payback is indeed in order. While the Warriors, who now have Cousins in the lineup, are healthy, the Lakers are still without Lebron. The Lakers may still be feeling the effects off a tough 4-point OT loss at Houston, on Saturday. Meanwhile, off seven straight wins, the Warriors come in with plenty of momentum. Expect them to be all business here, avenging the earlier loss in blowout fashion. |
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01-21-19 | Virginia Tech +4 v. North Carolina | Top | 82-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on VT (10* BEST BET). While the Hokies came up short against Virginia, tonight represents another opportunity for a marquee ACC victory. I expect them to make the most of it. Coach Buzz William had this to say: "In a demented way, when you get your brain beat in, it kind of re-centers you or calibrates you. And then to have a chance to go right back and do it again ... " The Heels are going to want to play at a face pace and thats going to open up plenty of looks for Tech's dangerous outside shooters. The Hokies already bounced back from the Virginia loss by beating up on Wake Forest Saturday. They've been money (10-1 ATS the L11!) when playing with one or less day's rest and I expect a highly motivated effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover this evening. |
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01-21-19 | Kings v. Nets OVER 230 | Top | 94-123 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Sacramento/Brooklyn OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). This line may initially look a little high. However, I don't believe it'll be high enough. The Kings have seen the OVER go 13-3 when listed as a road underdog and they'll face a Nets team which gives up a lot of points, regardless of opponent. They've allowed triple-digits in 14 straight games, an average of 127 their past four. The Kings aren't bothered by high road totals. They've seen the OVER go 14-6 the last 20 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. (Should the line close at 230 or higher, they've also seen the OVER go 6-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater.) The OVER is 11-6-1 when the Nets face a team from the West, 47-29-2 the past 2+ seasons. Expect more offensive fireworks. |
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01-20-19 | Suns v. Wolves -10 | Top | 114-116 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Suns yesterday and this is an excellent spot to go against them once again. While the Suns were busy getting blown out at Charlotte, the Wolves had yesterday off. They're going to be in an angry mood, too. Not only did they lose by eight at Phoenix last month but they're off b2b losses, a blowout loss followed by a close one. The Wolves are 2-0 SU/ATS when off a home loss off three or less, 7-4 ATS their last 11 in that situation. They're also 6-2 ATS after failing to cover in two or more consecutive games. These same two teams will face each other, at Phoenix, in two days. Knowing this to be the case, expect the rested, revenge-minded T-Wolves to take care of business in decisive fashion. |
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01-19-19 | Oklahoma v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Sooners may currently have the higher national ranking but I believe that the Longhorns are favored for good reason. The Sooners, who lost by seven at Texas Tech last time on the road, are 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Going back further finds them at 15-23-1 ATS their last 39 in that role. Last time out, the Sooners were upset by K-State. They're 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were off an upset loss in Big 12 play, 0-3 ATS their last three when off a double-digit loss as a favorite. Off three straight close losses, look for Longhorns to finally break through for a victory, covering the small number along the way. |
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01-19-19 | Suns v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 115-135 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* VIOLATOR). After losing three straight, the Hornets have rebounded with b2b blowout wins. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into today's game. Note that the Hornets are 4-2 ATS as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range and also 4-2 ATS when off a win of 15 or more points. The Suns are 0-2 to start their road trip and they've got the front end of a home-and-home with Minnesota on deck tomorrow. After getting blown out, they lost by just three last time out. The close losses can often be even tougher to bounce back from; the Suns are just 2-5 ATS off a loss by six or less, 14-23 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. Expect a blowout. |
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01-18-19 | Nets v. Magic +1 | Top | 117-115 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). The Magic are playing well right now. Sure, they lost last time out. However, that was on the road and they took the Pistons to OT. Their last two home games, the Magic actually beaten the Rockets and Celtics. Going back further finds them at 4-0 SU/ATS their last four games here. Granted, the Nets are also playing well. In fact, they too, just defeated the Celtics and Rockets. Though they had yesterday off, that Houston win on Thursday may have taken an extra toll, a 145-142 OT thriller. An emotional and/or physical letdown could well be in order. Note that the Nets are only 2-5 SU/ATS off a win by three or less. They're also 2-7 ATS after having covered three of their previous four games. I think its important to note that these teams will meet in Brooklyn in less than a week. The Magic know this and know that they need to take care of business on their home floor. They've had excellent success against the Atlantic Division and it continues tonight. |
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01-17-19 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -4 | Top | 67-70 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on ASU (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). The favorite is 6-2 ATS the last eight times that these teams have faced each other and I expect those stats to improve here. Indeed, this is a case of the Beavers being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Sun Devils just got upset by the Cardinal, at Stanford, in their last game. Prior to that, they'd won b2b games by double-digits. The last time that they were off a loss, the Sun Devils responded with a 22-point win over Colorado. Including that result, ASU is 7-2 ATS the past nine times it was off a double-digit Pac-12 loss. Over the years, the Beavers are just 12-20 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're also 3-7 ATS (2-8 SU) the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. Lay the points and expect a relatively decisive win for the home team. |
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01-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 95-114 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* PERS FAV). These teams just faced each other, at Sacramento, on Saturday. The Kings won by seven. Not surprising, given that Charlotte is just 6-15 on the road. Playing on their home floor, where they're a far better 14-8, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to get some payback on Thursday. Note that the Hornets are 6-2 ATS their past eight when attempting to avenge a 'same season' loss. Charlotte was laying -10.5 for last season's meeting here. Things have changed but not that much. Payback time! |
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01-16-19 | George Washington v. La Salle -6 | Top | 59-56 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA SALLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The home team has won and covered seven straight when these teams have faced each other. In six of those seven cases, including each of the past five, the home team has won by double-digits. Going back further finds the favorite at 20-6 ATS the past 26 times that these teams have gotten together. I expect homecourt to again prove the different. The Colonials are off b2b losses, most recently losing by 20 against Richmond. The Explorers are stepping down in class here, after three straight against more difficult opponents, games where they were underdogs. They played well in those games. Now, they're back in the role of favorites, a role which has seen them go 2-1 ATS. While they've covered a few this season, the Colonials are still just 9-19 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons. The ugly home loss against Richmond exposed some issues. It was already going to be a long year, the loss of Arnoldo Toro in December figures to make it a lot worse. Expect another double-digit win for the home team. |
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01-16-19 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 206 | Top | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit/Orlando OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH). This is the lowest O/U line on the Wednesday board. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Magic are off a 116-109 victory, their second straight outright win as an underdog. They've now allowed a minimum of 103 points in six straight games, an average of 109. Note that the OVER is 9-3 the last 12 times that Orlando was off a SU win as dog, 2-0 when they were off b2b SU wins as an underdog. The Pistons are off a low-scoring game at Utah. That marked their fourth straight 'under,' all four of those games coming on the road. However, a closer look reveals that three of those games still produced a minimum of 213 points. That makes it five of the Pistons' last six games which have produced 213 or greater. Their only two home games in 2019 finished with 215 and 226. The most recent meeting between these teams was on 12/30, at Orlando. That one produced 216 combined points, all of them in regulation. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score again finishing comfortably above the low number. |
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01-15-19 | Thunder v. Hawks +9 | Top | 126-142 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). While the Thunder have had a couple of days off, I feel that its going to be easy for them to look past the Hawks tonight. Note that OKC is just 4-6 ATS its last 10 as a road favorite in the -6.5 to -12 range. The Thunder are off a home-and-home split with the Spurs and they've got the Lakers on deck Thursday, a game which could mark Lebron's return. Looking past the Hawks will prove costly though, as Atlanta continues to play hard. The Hawks have quietly won four of their past six home games and only one of those two losses came by more than eight points. In fact, they even recently won a road game at Philadelphia. The Hawks had yesterday off and they don't play for a few days after this. Their full focus will be on the Thunder. The Hawks have scored 100 or more in six straight and 114 or more in each of their last two. They're 18-8 ATS the last 26 times that they'd scored 110 or more in b2b games and I expect AT LEAST another cover this evening. |
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01-15-19 | Florida v. Mississippi State -3 | Top | 68-71 | Push | 0 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Gators got outscored by a 34-12 margin in terms of "points-in-the-paint," in Saturday's double-digit loss against Tennessee. The Gators' lack of dominant post players is going to hurt them again tonight, as they figure to have to have no answer for 6-11 Holman. The Gators always seem like an attractive underdog, given their program's history. However, they're just 3-11 ATS when getting points the past 2+ seasons. The Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times that they were off b2b SEC losses. Taking advantage of their superior inside game, expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats this evening. |
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01-14-19 | Hornets +8.5 v. Spurs | Top | 108-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Hornets are playing the final games of a road trip. Its been an unsuccessful trip and they're determined to close it with a victory. While that may or may not happen, I do expect their very best effort to lead to AT LEAST a cover. The Hornets have some extra motivation in that Tony Parker is returning "home." Additionally and perhaps more importantly, this is also Coach Borrego's first game against his former mentor, Popovich. While they had yesterday off, the Spurs may still be feeling the effects of Saturday's showdown at OKC. Note that the Spurs are just 1-3 ATS this season, as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Meanwhile, the Hornets are 6-2 ATS when having lost three of their previous four. In a game which figures to have some extra emotion, expect the Hornets to improve on those stats this evening. |
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01-14-19 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh +5 | Top | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* BEST BET). The Panthers have been far better at the betting window this season than the Seminoles. Pittsburgh checks in with an 11-4 ATS record. FSU is just 6-10 ATS. I like how this one sets up for the Panthers. The Noles are off a great game against Duke and deserve a ton of credit for their effort. Unfortunately, despite leaving it all on the floor and having a chance to win, they ultimately came up a bucket short. That's going to take a toll on them here. Note that FSU is just 7-14 ATS its last 21 on the road and that includes an 0-8 ATS record as road favorites, or when in a pick'em spot. The Noles were favored by -6.5 or -7 points the last time that they visited here, coming here with a top-20 ranking. Yet, the Panthers won by double-digits. Catching their guests off the heartbreaker vs. Duke, don't be surprised when the Panthers deliver another upset tonight. |
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01-13-19 | Blazers +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* BEST BET). The Nuggets won by a point when these teams met in late November, at Portland. At the time, the Nuggets were red hot, in the midst of a 7-game winning streak, while while Blazers were in the middle of a 1-6 skid. Things set up much differently this time. While the Nuggets have still been playing well, they're now in a tough scheduling spot, which was not the case for the earlier meeting. Denver played last night at Phoenix and will now be playing its third game in the past four days, their fifth game in the past seven. Meanwhile, the rested Blazers are now 6-1 their last seven, instead of 1-6, as was the case earlier. The Blazers are 12-6 ATS their last 18 in the revenge role and that includes a 2-0 ATS mark when attempting to avenge a loss of three or fewer points. Schedule in their favor, expect the Blazers to improve on those stats Sunday evening. |
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01-11-19 | Hornets v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 96-127 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland/Charlotte OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). I successfully played on each of these teams to finish above the total in their last game. Charlotte combined with the Clippers for 237 points on Tuesday. The following day, Portland combined with the Bulls for 236. Here are a couple of excerpts from what I said about those games. "...While this O/U line may initially seem high, I don't feel that it'll prove to be high enough. In case you haven't been paying attention, the Hornets aren't playing much defense on the road these days. They've allowed 103 or more points in 16 straight road games and the problem isn't getting any better. In fact, over their past five road games, the Hornets have surrendered a total of 619 points, an average of 124 per game. They've continued to score themselves, at least. Over their past four road games, the Hornets have averaged 122 points. Not surprisingly, the OVER is a perfect 8-0 their last eight games away from Charlotte ..." "...The Blazers extended 'under' streak has provided us with an extremely low number here. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The last three meetings between these teams have produced 222, 244 and 232 combined points. The Bulls are off a 117-100 loss. That marked the third straight game that they've allowed 112 or more points. Back to that low O/U number. A look at the Blazers' last 10 games shows combined final scores of 210, 239, 213, 219, 220, 224, 221, 220, 211 and 212. Thats translated to a 9-1 'under' record. However, ALL 10 of those games would have finished above tonight's much lower number. This one will too." Once again, I feel that the number will prove far too low. As mentioned, the Hornets don't play defense on the road but can score themselves. The Blazers will be able to play at a fast tempo, leading to the final combined score finishing above the number. |
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01-11-19 | Purdue v. Wisconsin OVER 137 | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Purdue/Wisconsin OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). While these teams have historically played some low-scoring games against each other, I believe that this line will prove to be too low. This is a game where I expect both teams to keep scoring the entire way. Both really want this one and neither is going to go away. The Boilermakers aren't playing much defense of late. They allowed 77 last game and 70 before that. They've allowed 60 or more in nine straight games, 67 or more in seven of those. They allow an average of 75.4 ppg on the road. The Boilermakers can still score though, averaging a fairly healthy 77.6 ppg on the season. Thats more than the 74.5 ppg which the Badgers average. However, it should be noted that Wisconsin averages a much higher 80.9 ppg at home. With the Boilermakers at just 2-6 ATS their past eight, note that the OVER is 7-2 the past few seasons, when Purdue had failled to cover in six, or seven, of its previous eight games. With the OVER also at 7-2 the last nine times that the Badgers were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-10-19 | Celtics v. Heat +1 | Top | 99-115 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). Wednesday's game against the Pacers was a big one for the Celtics. Not only are the Pacers ahead of the Celtics in the overall Eastern Conference standings but the Pacers had also beaten the Celtics three straight times, most recently a 1-point game back in early November. While the Celtics were busy playing that 'big game,' the Heat had Wednesday off. The last time that the Celtics played the second of b2b games, they lost by nine, at Detroit. The Heat know that four of their next five come on the road, one of those road games coming at Boston. In other words, they better take care of business here. They've beaten the Celtics twice in a row. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to do so again Thursday. |
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01-10-19 | Hofstra v. William & Mary +4.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on WILLIAM & MARY (10* BEST BET). The home team won both meetings last season; the home team is now 11-5 ATS the last 16 in the series. I expect homecourt to again prove the difference. While Hofstra checks in on an extended winning streak and with the much better record overall, thats partly due to William & Mary having played a more difficult schedule. Since hitting conference play, the Tribe have picked up their game. The Tribe's Justin Pierce missed last game and is currently questionable, as of this writing. He's an important player and William & Mary is hopeful to have him available. Even without him, Nathan Knight gives them an average of 24 points and 12 boards per game, while adding an average of five assists and a couple of steals. Matt Milon adds 19 points and seven boards per game while Chase Audige chips in another 13/5. In other words, this team still has plenty of weapons. William & Mary is 4-1 ATS its past five as a home underdog or pick'em. This is a huge game for them and I expect AT LEAST another cover. |