Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-19-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Detroit Pistons +8 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
I am playing on DETROIT. Despite Detroit’s troubles this season, the team is showing some positive signs and I believe the Pistons are in a good spot to take the points Friday night. |
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12-17-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Detroit Pistons +6.5 | Top | 117-106 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
I am playing on DETROIT. The Pistons have shown signs of playing better recently with two wins in their last three games and I believe we’ll see a team hungry for a win tonight after failing to give the Motor City faithful a victory on home court in their last 10 games at the Palace. Detroit went 2-1 on its recent West Coast road trip that ended with a 22-point drubbing at the hands of the Clippers. I think we can throw that last game out for what was likely a weary Pistons squad that was playing its third game in four nights in the Pacific Time Zone. The good news in that blowout is that Jodie Meeks had a chance to see some floor time and he scored 20 points in 29 minutes. I think that could be just what he needed in his third game since returning from injury and I believe Detroit will start to see a much-needed contribution from him from 3-point range, where Detroit has struggled all season. Trade rumors are swirling around the Pistons these days and that’s another reason I like them right now. It’s reasonable to think some players may want out of this losing squad that seems desperate for answers and sometimes we see teams elevate their play with potential trades in the works. I like that Detroit is getting a handful of points at home here also. The Mavs are coming off a win over the Knicks last night and they tend to scrape out wins, but not cover in the second game of back-to-backs. They are 4-1 straight up in that spot this season but just 1-4 against the spread. 10* Best Bet |
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12-13-14 | Gonzaga v. UCLA +5 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Main Event Saturday. The Bruins take a four-game winning streak into the weekend but face a huge test in the Gonzaga Bulldogs inside Pauley Pavilion. Oddsmakers aren’t giving UCLA much respect and there is value in a very talented Bruins team. |
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12-13-14 | Northern Iowa v. VCU -6 | Top | 87-93 | Push | 0 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
I’m playing on the VCU Rams as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. Virginia Commonwealth is one the mid-major gatekeepers, having shown its dominance in past NCAA tournaments. The Rams host a fellow mid-major star in No. 24 Northern Iowa Saturday. |
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12-12-14 | Detroit Pistons +10 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 105-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
I am playing on DETROIT. I believe the Pistons are going to play with a little desperation tonight as they aim to avoid tying a franchise-worst 14-game losing streak. I believe that, along with a few other elements, will help them cover against the Suns tonight and I anticipate it happening with room to spare. |
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12-12-14 | Iowa State v. Iowa -6 | Top | 90-75 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
I am playing on the IOWA HAWKEYES. Home court has been the ultimate factor in this bitter in-state rivalry with 10 of the last 11 victories going to the home side. It’s the biggest reason I like the Hawkeyes tomorrow, with this game being held in Iowa City. |
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12-11-14 | DePaul v. George Washington -9 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
I am playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. Home court is one of the biggest reasons why I love the Colonials to win and cover the number in this home-and-home series with DePaul that will finish next year in Chicago. |
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12-10-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5 | Top | 82-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* T-Wolves. Analysis before 10am PST. |
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12-10-14 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Hornets -2.5 | Top | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Charlotte Hornets as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. The Hornets have enjoyed an extended break following a win over New York that snapped a 10-game losing skid. That’s given Charlotte time to focus on what’s working and bring some important bodies back before taking on a Boston Celtics squad that’s already had a busy week. |
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12-06-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons -9 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. The Pistons take on the Philadelphia 76ers playing the second night of back-to-back games after a hard-fought contest against the Thunder Friday night. |
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12-06-14 | Gonzaga v. Arizona -3.5 | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Arizona Wildcats as my 10* Game of the Week Saturday. The Wildcats put their unbeaten record up against the unblemished Gonzaga Bulldogs and can boost their national ranking with another win over one of biggest mid-major powers in the country. |
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12-03-14 | Creighton v. Tulsa -1 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
I am playing on TULSA. I believe the Golden Hurricane are undervalued in this spot tonight and we can thank an incredibly tough schedule to date for that. |
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12-03-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Washington Wizards -9 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10* Wizards. Analysis before 10am PST |
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12-02-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons -1 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
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11-30-14 | Washington v. UTEP -1.5 | Top | 68-65 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
I’m playing on the UTEP Miners as my 10* End of Month Blowout Sunday. The Miners battle the Washington Huskies in a showdown between undefeated programs in the final of the Wooden Legacy in Anaheim. UTEP has already added two big non-conference wins to its NCAA resume, with victories over Xavier and Princeton in this tournament. The Miners also knocked off the Huskies’ rival, Washington State, in their opening game of the year. UTEP won’t be intimidated by this major conference opponent Sunday in California. Washington’s 5-0 mark to start the schedule doesn’t boast many big-name opponents. The Huskies knocked off Long Beach State and San Jose State to grab a spot in the championship game and have yet to play a member of a major conference. Washington has puffed up its early-season stats against this weak slate of games and collides with a tested UTEP team still trying to prove its place in the rankings. The Miners are an aggressive team that gets to the paint, draws fouls and crashes the boards. UTEP averages 16.8 free throws per game, drawing 21.2 fouls an outing. On the glass, the Miners pulled down 38.5 rebounds a night – 11 of those on the offensive end. They don’t give back much in return, allowing an average of only seven offensive boards. The Miners’ impressive non-conference calendar and their ability to get to the line and control the boards is why I’m playing on UTEP as my 10* End of Month Blowout. |
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11-29-14 | Albany NY v. UNLV -7 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
I’m playing on the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels as my 10* Game of the Week Saturday. The Rebels host the Albany Great Danes at the Thomas & Mack Center Saturday, back home after a showing in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic tournament in New York. |
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11-28-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Atlanta Hawks -2.5 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Atlanta Hawks as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday. The Hawks host the New Orleans Pelicans, who are in a grueling stretch of games in which they play nine of 11 contests away from the Big Easy. |
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11-24-14 | Phoenix Suns +5 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The Raptors are getting more attention than just about anyone would have projected at this point in the early season and as a result we're going to start seeing their lines inflate. I feel that's the case Monday night at home when they're laying a handful against the smoking-hot Suns. The Suns have won four in a row and I expect them to pour everything they have into their final game of a six-game road trip in Toronto. Phoenix is playing fantastic team basketball right now and using a deep bench to stay fresh during the club's travels. Head coach Jeff Hornacek said "There is something about being on the road" after Saturday's win over Indiana and talked about how his team is finding its groove. Gerald Green scored a game-high 23 points against the Pacers while Isaiah Thomas chipped in with 16 with both players coming off the bench. No player saw more than 26 minutes on Saturday night, which is why I fully expect the Suns to maintain top speed tonight. Phoenix is the fourth leading scoring team in the NBA with 105.3 points per game and they are the best free throw shooting team. They also hold the edge in rebounding margin over the Raptors, who are one of the worst rebounding squads in the league with a margin of -2.31. I like the Suns to get it done against a slightly overvalued Raptors team and I'll take the points while I can get them. This is just the third time all year Phoenix has been an underdog. 10* Best Bet |
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11-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets as my 10* Revenge Best of the Best Wednesday. The Nuggets get a chance to even the score with the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday, hosting OKC after losing to the Thunder 102-91 on the road earlier this month. |
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11-18-14 | New York Knicks +3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
I am playing on NEW YORK. The Knicks finally snapped their streak of futility after seven games with a win over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. I like the Knicks to continue their winning ways Tuesday night in Milwaukee and they even have a few points to work with as the underdog. New York is finally showing signs of life in its new and much talked about triangle offense implemented by coach Derek Fisher this season. The Knicks managed 100 points or more in each of their last two games, which were the first games they reached triple digits all season. “Every game I'm starting to become a little bit more comfortable with my role,” Carmelo Anthony said after the game. Anthony poured in 28 points and had just 14 field goal attempts on Sunday and he’s made 20 of his past 27 shots over his last six quarters for 58 points. With Anthony playing more effectively, J.R. Smith had his best game of the year Sunday also with 28 points of his own. I don’t feel oddsmakers quite believe the Knicks have sorted out their woes yet, which is why we’re getting a good number on New York here on Tuesday. I expect the cat to be out of the bag in another game or two and every NBA bettor will soon know the Knicks have found their offensive rhythm. 10* Best Bet - Knicks |
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11-17-14 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -4 | Top | 93-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
I am playing on MEMPHIS. The Grizzlies have won 19 straight games at home and catch Houston in a great spot on home court on Monday. The Rockets are playing the second game in a back-to-back situation after facing Oklahoma City last night and this is their third game in four nights. Houston did try to use its bench at OKC in a game in which they scored just 69 points, but their two stars James Harden and Dwight Howard each played over 37 minutes apiece. I believe that’s an especially tough spot for Howard, who will face his toughest post challenge of the season with the Grizzlies’ duo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. The pair have helped lead Memphis to a 9-1 start to the season and are a huge reason why they lead the NBA in points allowed at 91.3 and rank fourth in defensive efficiency. Memphis is also getting fantastic back court play right now from point guard Mike Conley, who’s average six assists and almost 17 points per game. The return of Courtney Lee on Nov. 5 has been a huge help also. He’s averaging 15.5 points on 53.3 percent shooting in the six games since his return. A defensive stalwart on the road is a brutal matchup for the Rockets during this grinding stretch of their schedule. I believe Memphis will continue its winning ways at home and cover the small number set by oddsmakers. 10* Personal Favorite |
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11-15-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10* Situational Best of the Best Saturday. The Clippers have enjoyed an extended break, with their last game coming five days ago. That’s a much-needed hiatus after an inconsistent start to the year. Los Angeles will have fresh legs against the Phoenix Suns, who are playing the second half of back-to-back games Saturday night. The Suns roll into L.A. fresh off a home loss to the Charlotte Hornets Friday night. Phoenix, which will be playing its third game in four nights Saturday, crumbled in the fourth quarter after having a one-point lead, giving up 29 points to the Hornets in the final frame. The Suns have allowed opponents to top the 100-point plateau in six of their last seven games and rank 24th in the league in defense. The Clippers hope the time off worked out the kinks in their offense. Los Angeles is shooting 44.9 percent from the field and averaging just over 100 points per game, after posting 108 points per outing in 2013 – tied for tops in the NBA.The Clippers won’t need too much extra in the points department to edge a weary Suns team, about to tip off a six-game road trip which will send them East for most of the month. This situational matchup, with the Clippers well rested and the Suns going back-to-back nights, is why I’m playing on Los Angeles as a 10* Situational Best of the Best Saturday. |
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11-14-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 206 | Top | 91-139 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
10* Under. analysis to follow before 10am PST |
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11-14-14 | Utah Jazz v. New York Knicks -3 | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New York Knicks as a 10* Personal Favorite Friday. The Knicks welcome a road weary Utah Jazz team to Madison Square Garden and try to snap a six-game losing slide in what is shaping up to be a must-win game for New York. The Knicks have stumbled out of the blocks, falling back in the Eastern Conference standings. New York’s offense has struggled to find its form in head coach Derek Fisher’s new triangle offense, coming into Friday ranked among the bottom of the league in scoring. However, star forward Carmelo Anthony is starting to heat up – scoring 27 points on 10-of-17 shooting in the loss to Orlando - and can spark this offense if he finds his stroke. The Jazz may be the perfect opponents to help New York end this slide. Utah’s defense is giving up 102.2 points per game to start the season, and allowed Atlanta to shoot better than 51 percent from the field in their loss to the Hawks Wednesday. On the other side of the floor, the Jazz don’t pose much of an offensive threat to the Knicks, managing just 90.5 points per game over their last four contest. New York has owned Utah in recent meetings, having covered the spread in 20 of their previous 26 head-to-head battles, including a 9-0 ATS winning streak against the Jazz inside MSG. A desperate Knicks teams and a road-weary Jazz side is why I’m playing on New York as a 10* Personal Favorite Friday. |
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11-12-14 | Orlando Magic v. New York Knicks -6 | Top | 97-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
I am playing on the KNICKS. While New York is still struggling to find any sort of rhythm, the good news is that the Knicks are catching the right team at the right time to get back on track. The Magic are coming off an excruciating loss to the Raptors last night during which they held a double-digit lead at one point. Orlando collapsed in the final quarter and was outscored 32-17 to lose 104-100. “It’s very hard, but it’s basketball,” guard Evan Fournier said after the loss. “I feel like I’m saying the same stuff for five games: We play good and we have a little stretch where we just don’t pay attention to the details, and that’s basically where we lose the game.” Magic coach Jaque Vaughn had to play his starters more than he likely would’ve wanted to in a back-to-back situation with four of his starting five playing at least 39 minutes each. But the Magic were desperately trying to salvage the win and managing for tonight’s game against the Knicks went out the window. I believe the Knicks will be able to take advantage of a fatigued and demoralized Magic squad on home court tonight. Orlando went 5-13 in the second game of back-to-backs last season and the Knicks have won and covered nine of the last 10 meetings with Orlando. 10* Personal Favorite |
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11-11-14 | Orlando Magic +11 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. The Magic head north of the border to face the Toronto Raptors Tuesday night. Toronto has jumped out to a strong start to the season but has built that record against some softer opponents. The Raptors added another tick to their win column with a blowout over Philadelphia Sunday. Toronto is surprising some with its 6-1 record to open the year but a quick glance at who those victories have come against will make you think twice about Toronto’s elite status. The Raptors have puffed up their odds with wins over the hapless Sixers, Celtics, Hawks and Tuesday’s opponents the Magic, and taken advantage of teams missing key players – Wizards and Thunder. Those six clubs have a combined record of 14-25 and Washington is currently the only one over .500. Unlike the overvalued Raptors, the Magic have been very undervalued in their recent outings. Orlando has covered in three of its last four games – all of those ATS wins coming as an underdog. The Magic have done a good job defending in that span, giving up just over 96 points in regulation in those four contests. That’s a major improvement on Orlando’s season average of 101 points against. The Raptors’ soft opening schedule and the Magic’s new-found defense is why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. |
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11-09-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +1 | Top | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Phoenix Suns as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. Phoenix is at home hosting a Golden State Warriors side coming off a huge game against the Houston Rockets Saturday night. Golden State will be ripe for a letdown after mixing it up with the Western Conference-leading Rockets. Back-to-back games will have the Warriors up-tempo offense a step slower, which will benefit a Phoenix side rested up and motivated after a crushing loss to Sacramento in two overtimes Friday night. The Suns are planning on picking up the pace with their offense – perfect timing to put Golden State on its heels. Phoenix opened that loss to Sacramento with a 36-point first quarter before pumping the breaks the rest of the game. Head coach Jeff Hornacek liked what he saw in that opening frame and is telling his backcourt to pick up the pace instead of walking into the offense. The Suns have the horses to match the Warriors' pace, scoring an average of 103.2 points per game to start the season. Phoenix has covered in four of its previous five meetings with Golden State and has come away as an ATS victor in six of its last eight games versus the Warriors inside US Airways Center. A letdown spot for the Warriors and the Suns' commitment to pushing the pace is why I’m playing on Phoenix as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. |
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11-08-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers. Los Angeles is try to erase a bad loss to Golden State when the Clippers host the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday. Los Angeles has stumbled to open the schedule and head coach Doc Rivers ripped into this players, hoping to light a fire for this game. The Clippers have been terribly inconsistent to start the year, following wins with losses in their last four contests. Los Angeles’ defense isn’t where it needs to be, allowing more than 104 points per game, but Saturday offers a chance to make a statement against a hungry team trying to leapfrog L.A. in the Western Conference. Portland is coming off two straight wins over Cleveland and Dallas, and is bound for a letdown on the road Saturday. The Blazers offense depends a lot on PG Damian Lillard to create chances, and when he struggles so does Portland. Los Angeles will throw a lot of bodies at Lillard Saturday, using Chris Paul, Jordan Farmar and Chris Douglas-Roberts to disrupt his night. The Clippers frontcourt duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan match up well with Blazers versatile big man LaMarcus Aldridge and have the athletic ability to stay with him inside and out. Aldridge put up just 16 and 20 points in the past two games and will have limited looks Saturday. The Clippers getting a wake-up call and bad matchups for the Blazers is why I’m playing on Los Angeles. 10* |
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11-06-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers -2 | Top | 87-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* TNT Game of the Week Thursday. The Blazers are coming off a statement win over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home and now try to make waves in their own conference with a victory over the Dallas Mavericks in the Rose Garden Thursday night. Portland did a great job defensively against the Cavaliers, limiting Cleveland to 82 points on 36.5 percent shooting. The most impressive performance was the effort put in by Wesley Matthews, who checked LeBron James to 4-of-12 shooting and only 11 points. The Trail Blazers' hard-nosed defense faces a Dallas offense that ranks No. 1 in the league after just four games – averaging 111.8 points a night. The Mavericks are opening a tough stretch of schedule that has them in action three of the next four nights. Dallas’ defense hasn’t been the tightest to open the year, giving up 105 points per game so far and allowing basement teams like Boston and Utah to hang over 100 points on them in the first four contests. Portland has plenty of firepower as well. It boasts one of the best inside-out combos in Damian Lillard, who woke up from his scoring slumber with 27 points versus the Cavs, and forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who is a tough matchups for the Mavericks on both ends of the floor. The Blazers’ production will see a major increase with Lillard back on track after he misfired in the first three games of the year. A dreadful Dallas defense and a Blazers team rounding into form is why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* TNT Game of the Week Thursday. |
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11-05-14 | New York Knicks v. Detroit Pistons -4 | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. The Pistons play host to the New York Knicks, who are coming off a loss to Washington Tuesday night. Detroit is hungry for its first win of the season and its physical brand of basketball will wear down a Knicks side playing the second half of back-to-back games. The Pistons had the misfortune of opening the season with two straight road games, then completely laid an egg against Brooklyn at home this weekend. Detroit has had an extended break to work out those early-season kinks and new head coach Stan Van Gundy has his team prepared to face the Knicks Wednesday. New York was rolled by the Wizards, losing 98-83 after getting outscored 58-38 in the second half. That late letdown is a sign of a fatigued team. The Knicks have a minus-6.5 point second-half scoring differential to start the year – sixth lowest in the NBA – and shot just 37 percent from the field Tuesday. Detroit is a big physical team that bullies its way inside and crashes the boards hard, ranking as one of the top rebounding clubs in the league. That bruising style of play will wear down an already-tired New York side that kicks off a three-game road trip in Motown Wednesday night. A hungry and hefty Pistons side and a Knicks team running on empty is why I’m playing Detroit as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. |
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11-04-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Portland Trail Blazers +3 | Top | 82-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. The Blazers are getting discounted at home against the overhyped Cleveland Cavaliers, opening a three-game Western road trip Tuesday. Cleveland enters Tuesday’s game coming off a hard-fought overtime win against the Chicago Bulls Halloween night. The Cavaliers aren’t crushing opponents as many predicted, instead stumbling through the same chemistry issues LeBron James faced when he joined the Miami Heat. Cleveland is nowhere near as solid on defense as the Heat were and it’s shown in the early goings. Portland is always a tough team inside the Rose Garden, and is looking to right the ship after back-to-back losses. The Trail Blazers need more from All-Star guard Damian Lillard, who is expected to play Tuesday after nursing an abdominal injury. Lillard is shooting under 27 percent from the field to start the year but will rise to the challenge of Cleveland’s stud PG Kyrie Irving. Last season, Lillard hung 36 and 28 points on the Cavs in their two meetings. While the stars will shine when these teams collide, the difference will likely be Portland’s ability to go down the bench compared to Cleveland’s shallow reserves. The Blazers can bring in veteran bodies like C Chris Kaman and PG Steve Blake at those key positions, and backups Will Barton and Thomas Robinson are instant energy players. Cleveland’s bench ranks third last in production and doesn’t get much beyond swingman Tristan Thompson. The Blazers’ depth and Lillard’s dominance versus the Cavaliers is why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. |
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10-30-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers -11 | Top | 90-93 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10* Thursday. The Clippers have a chance to get a leg up on the Oklahoma City Thunder early in the season, taking on an OKC team without NBA MVP Kevin Durant. These head-to-head matchups are very important for L.A. and could be a major factor once Durant returns and the Western Conference playoff races take shape. The Thunder looked lost in their first game without Durant at the center of the offense. Oklahoma City was dropped 106-89 by Portland Wednesday night, failing to cover as a 9-point road underdog in the Rose Garden. Russell Westbrook scored 38 in the loss, but the Thunder received little offensive help outside of that, shooting a combined 40.7 percent and managing just 12 points in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City is used to Durant creating points when the offense breaks down as well as finding scoring chances for his teammates when defenses key on the dynamic forward. The Thunder are reliant on his ability to stretch the floor and draw bigger defenders away from the hoop with his range from outside. Los Angeles has plenty of size and talent around the basket and should dominate the Thunder’s frontcourt with Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Spencer Hawes down low. This is a big game for the franchise, debuting for the first time under the ownership of Steve Ballmer. The Clippers will be motivated to open this new era with a bang. A lost OKC offense and a bigger, motivated Clippers team is why I’m playing on the L.A. Clippers as my 10* GOM. |
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10-29-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns -10.5 | Top | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns enter this season as perhaps the hungriest team in the NBA after missing the playoffs by one game last year and the Lakers have the misfortune of facing them first. Phoenix catches the Lakers on the second of back-to-back nights after L.A. fell at home to Houston last night in its season opener. That’s a big advantage for the Suns against a banged up Lakers lineup that just lost first-round draft pick Julius Randle last night to a broken leg. New Lakers coach Byron Scott has also said throughout this offseason he’ll be limiting Kobe Bryant’s minutes in the second of back-to-back games, another plus for the Suns tonight. I believe Phoenix will use one of the best and deepest backcourts in the league to outlast L.A. tonight and win their seventh straight at home against the Lakers. The Suns went 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the number last year against L.A. – a reflection of how they played against the bottom half of the league. The Suns went 30-9 against the 14 teams with losing records last campaign and should be looking forward to opening the year against a team they’ve had a lot of recent success against. 10* Personal Favorite |
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06-15-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 195 | Top | 87-104 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 57 m | Show |
I’m playing on Miami and San Antonio to finish OVER the total. I won with the “under” last game. However, with the series shifting to San Antonio and the Heat now facing elimination, I’m expecting a higher-scoring affair on Sunday. From a line value perspective, note that this O/U line is the lowest of the series to date. An extra couple or few points may not seem like much, but it can often make a difference. There’s only been one day in between the last couple of games. However, for this game, the teams have now had the previous two days off. That’s noteworthy as we find the OVER at 9-4 when the Spurs played with two day’s rest in between games. The first two games here finished with 205 and 194 points, an average of 199.5. For the season, games here are averaging 203.5 points. Prior to managing “only” 96 in Game 2, the Spurs had hit triple-digits in scoring in each of their previous nine games. They’ve averaging 110.9 over that stretch. For the season, they average 106.8 ppg here. While the Spurs almost always put up points here, with their season on the line, the champs aren’t likely to just go quietly. They should keep fighting to score right until the final buzzer. Since last year's Finals, the OVER is 4-2 in six meetings between the teams here. I expect those stats to improve here. 10* best bet |
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06-15-14 | Miami Heat +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 87-104 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 48 m | Show |
I’m playing on MIAMI. I’ve successfully backed the Spurs a few times in this series now, supporting them in Game 1 and Game 3. This will be the first time that I’m taking Miami though. The Spurs have certainly looked impressive the past two games. They’re obviously a very good team, one which is playing very well right now. The Heat are still the champs though and I don’t believe they’re going to go down without a serious fight. Lets not forget that the Heat are still 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were trailing in a playoff series. While neither game at Miami was close, the two here at San Antonio were. The most recent game (Game 2) here was decided by only two points. The first game here saw San Antonio win by 15. However, that game was also close until the final minutes. I won’t be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire. That said, we’re getting more points with the Heat than we were for any game in these playoffs and I’m grabbing all the points I can get. 10* main event |
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06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 197.5 | Top | 107-86 | Win | 100 | 31 h 60 m | Show |
I’m playing on Miami and San Antonio to finish UNDER the total. Most are likely aware, this series has "zig-zagged" thus far. The Spurs won and covered Game 1. The Heat returned the favor in Game 2. Then, the Spurs won and covered again in Game 3. Some may not be aware that there’s been a similar pattern with the totals. Game 1 finished above the number. Game 2 finished “under” while Game 3 was “over.” I expect that “pattern” to continue tonight. Including the Game 2 result, the UNDER is now 16-9-1 the past 26 times that the Heat attempted to avenge an earlier loss. Additionally, the UNDER is now 2-0 these playoffs when they were trailing in a series. If you recall, the Heat were also trailing after the first game in the Indiana series. (They responded with an 87-83 victory.) Despite the Spurs hitting nearly everything they shot in the first half, the final score of Game 3 still didn’t finish above the total by that much. I believe its important to point out that these O/U lines remain considerably higher than they were for last year’s finals. Most of those were in the high 180s. A closer look at last year’s finals shows that the four games played here at Miami had final combined scores of 180, 187, 203 and 183. That’s an average of 188. Of course, it should also be mentioned that the only one of the four games played at Miami in last year’s finals which did produce more than 187 points was the 103-100 Miami win in Game 6. You might remember that one. The Heat outscored the Spurs by double-digits in the fourth quarter to force OT. The score was 95-95 after regulation. In other words, all four games at Miami, in last year’s finals, finished with 190 or fewer combined points in regulation. Obviously, this is a different year and things aren’t exactly the same as they were last season. However, I still believe this number is generously high. Even with Game 3 topping the total, the UNDER remains a lucrative 15-6 the last 21 times that the Spurs played here. I expect a much better defensive effort from the champs and look for those stats improve tonight. 10* main event |
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06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs +4.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 111-92 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. These teams split the first two games at San Antonio. While the Spurs did pull away at the end of the first, both games were close. I won’t be surprised to see an important Game 3 also come down to the wire. That said, I believe that getting this many points with the visitors is providing us with plenty of value. The Heat are well known for their ability to bounce back from a playoff loss and they added to that reputation on Sunday. The Spurs are pretty good at doing so themselves though and they tend to thrive when a series is tied. They’re 4-1 SU their last five off a loss, most recently beating the Thunder by 28. A very well-coached team which almost never panics, the Spurs are also an outstanding 27-11 SU (25-12-1 ATS) the last 38 times that they played when a series was tied. During that stretch, they’re 32-15 ATS (39-8 SU!) off an upset loss. Last year, just like this year, the Spurs won Game 1 and the Heat won Game 2. The Spurs would go on to win Game 3 by 36 points, the most one-sided game of the series. While a similar blowout would be surprising, another Spurs’ victory would not. 10* main event |
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06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 198.5 | Top | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
I’m playing on San Antonio and Miami to finish UNDER the total. After winning with the Spurs in Game 1, I came back and successfully played on the “under” for Game 2. With the series now tied and shifting to Miami, I believe this will be another good spot to do so. Note that the UNDER is 15-5 the last 20 times that the Spurs played at Miami. Despite the teams combining for a whopping 69 points in the third quarter, Game 2 still finished with only 194 points. I don’t expect any more 69 point quarters. Thus far, this series has mirrored last year’s Finals. The Spurs won Game 1 of that series, the Heat winning Game 2. In Game 3, the Heat managed only 77, the teams combining for 190. That was enough to finish above the total, as the O/U line was only 188. We’re getting a far more generous line to work with here though, which I believe is offering excellent value. 10* blue chip |
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06-08-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199.5 | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
I’m playing on San Antonio and Miami to finish UNDER the total. Game 1 of this series finished above the number, a 110-95 win for the Spurs. These teams both also saw Game 1 of their last series finish above the total. In each case, Game 2 was much lower-scoring. I expect that to be the case again on Sunday. After winning with the Spurs in Game 1 of their series against the Thunder, I came back and successfully played on the “under” in Game 2 of that series. The Spurs would allow a mere 77 points, a game which fell below the total by double-digits. The 189 combined points scored in that game marked the lowest scoring game of that series. Just as I played against the Heat in Game 1 of this series, I also successfully played against the Heat in Game 1 of their series against the Pacers. For Game 2, I came back with a play on the “under.” That ended up being the lowest-scoring game of that series. The Heat flexed their defensive muscles, limiting Indiana to only 83 points. The 170 combined points scored in that game marked the lowest scoring game of that series. After losing Game 1, note that the Heat held the Spurs to just 84 points in Game 2 of last year’s finals. That 113-84 final slipped below the number. Game 1 had an air-conditioning malfunction. That caused the game to be played in much higher temperatures than normal. I believe that had an effect on the defense, more than the offense. I expect greater defensive intensity in Game 2 to lead to a considerably lower final score. 10* Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -3.5 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Obviously, both teams really want to start the series with a victory. Playing at home, I believe its more important for the Spurs to do so though. I expect them to have a little more sense of urgency. San Antonio has been all business in Game 1 the last couple of rounds. The Spurs won the opening game of the last series by 17 points. The previous round, they won the opening game by 24. Having lost the first game against Indiana - and still easily winning the series - and having lost the first game against the Spurs in last years Finals, the Heat may have the sense that they could do so again. While the Heat are 0-3-1 ATS (0-4 SU) as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, the Spurs are 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. That includes a 111-87 destruction of the Heat when the teams met here in March. I look for Popovich to have them ready and I expect them to take care of business once again. 10* roast |
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05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 207 | Top | 112-107 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKC and San Antonio to finish UNDER the total. You’re likely aware that all five games in the series have been won by the home team. Last game landed very close to the number. However, the “under” is 2-0 in the games here at OKC, both those games falling comfortably below the total. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Thunder have seen the UNDER go 8-3 as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. They’ve also seen the UNDER go 7-3 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. Meanwhile, the Spurs have seen the UNDER go 9-5 when playing a road game with an O/U line in that range. The Thunder have also seen the UNDER go 5-1 the last six times that they were trailing in a playoff series. I expect those stats to improve Saturday night. 10* blue chip |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -4 | Top | 89-117 | Win | 100 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
I’m playing on San Antonio. Nobody has forgotten the 2012 Western Conference Finals. The Spurs won the first two games against the Thunder in that series only to go on to lose the next four. While some are expecting history to repeat itself, I’m not among them. These are not the 2012 Spurs. This is a team which does not panic. While this is a Game 5 instead of a Game 7, its obviously a critical game, one the Spurs can ill afford to lose. Here’s a small excerpt from a writeup I used the last time that the Spurs were in a “must win” situation, Game 7 against the Mavs: "...Popovich, Duncan and co. have all been here before. They’ve got nothing to prove. There’s no sense of panic. Duncan had this to say about having to play a Game 7. ‘’It doesn’t matter how many games it takes. We’re not worried or disappointed...’' (The Spurs would go on to win in blowout fashion.) I believe that sense of calmness, which comes from their experience, their coach and the type of players (Duncan) they have, will serve them well here. They know what they need to do and I look for them to do it. Obviously, home court has been huge in the series. The home team has won big in all four games. The Spurs have been money over the years, Game 3 notwithstanding, when off a double-digit loss. They’re 8-6 ATS 12-2 SU the last 14 times that they were off a loss of 10 or more points, going 21-14 ATS (29-6 SU) their last 35. Going back over the years, we find them at a lucrative 124-86-10 ATS their last 220 in that situation. I expect home court to again prove to be the difference, the Spurs improving to 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 10* Roast |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. The Pacers were already heavy underdogs coming into the series and now nobody is giving them any chance at all. I don’t believe they’re going to go down without a fight though. The pressure is now completely off the Pacers. I believe they’ll be able to be loose, while also playing with a sense of pride at the same time. The Pacers are still 9-2 SU (8-3 ATS) their last 11 when trailing in a playoff series. During that time, they’re 39-11 at home (Miami 26-21 on road) and 15-6 off a double-digit loss. Obviously, the Heat would really like to close out the series tonight. However, with the Spurs/Thunder now still a long way from being over, there may not be quite the same sense of urgency, as there would be if the Spurs had swept, as some thought might be the case after the first two games in that series. The four point Game 2 loss notwithstanding, the Pacers have had plenty of recent success against the Heat here. I believe they’ll come in expecting to win. George Hill had this to say: ''I think that is when we are at our best, when our back is against the wall. We are going to be home in front of our fans and I'm sure they're going to be going crazy.’’ I agree. 10* main event |
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05-27-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 208 | Top | 92-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKC and San Antonio to finish UNDER the total. After a high-scoring Game 1, the last two games have fallen below the total. Game 2 finished with 189 points. Game 3 produced 203. Yet, we’re still getting roughly the same number for Game 4 that we were for Game 3. I feel that’s providing very fair value. Popovich wasn’t happy with his team’s first half defense last time out, the Spurs giving up 57 points. They improved somewhat after the break, limiting the Thunder to 49 second half points. Off a loss, I expect an emphasis on improved defense here. The Spurs have lost just twice in the past few weeks. After the previous loss, they responded by holding Portland to a mere 82 points, a game which stayed below the total by 20 points. While the Spurs were hot from beyond the arc last time out, the Thunder actually played very stingy defense. They’ll be looking for a similar formula here. The UNDER is 3-0 when the Thunder were home favorites of three or fewer points and 4-1 when they were trailing in a series. 10* best bet |
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05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat UNDER 183.5 | Top | 90-102 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 48 m | Show |
I’m playing on Indiana and Miami to finish UNDER the total. This series has alternated “overs” and “unders.” The first game flew over the total. The second game stayed well below it. Game 3 barely finished above the total, thanks in large part to a high-scoring fourth quarter. I believe the “pattern" will continue and that tonight’s game will prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. The Heat have elevated their defensive play the past two games, allowing 83 and 87 points. Speaking of elevating their defensive play … For the first time this series - and the fifth time these playoffs - the Pacers find themselves down in games. The previous four times that they were in that situation, the Pacers were excellent on the defensive side of the ball. Down 1-0 against Atlanta, they allowed a mere 85 points. Down 2-1 vs. Atlanta, they allowed 88 points, a 91-89 win. Down 3-2 vs. Atlanta, they also allowed 88 points, a 95-88 victory. The only time they were trailing in the Washington series, the Pacers allowed only 82 points, earning an 86-82 win in Game 2 of that series. Not surprisingly, all four of those games stayed below the total. The Pacers also tend to elevate their defensive play off a bad loss; the UNDER is 13-7 the last 20 times that they lost their previous game by double-digits. The last time it happened, they responded by permitting just 80 points in their next game. I look for the Pacers to improve defensively again tonight, the UNDER improving to 7-3 the last 10 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. 10* blue chip |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 82 h 12 m | Show |
I’m on OKLAHOMA CITY. I respect the Spurs and have backed them a few times of late, most recently in Game 1 of this series. However, I believe this is a strong spot for the Thunder. As you’re probably aware, the Spurs are up 2-0. Neither game at San Antonio was close. This game is at Oklahoma City though. The Thunder have won back-to-back games here and are 15-4 their last 19 here. They’ve also owned the Spurs here. In fact, they’re a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS the last seven meetings against San Antonio here. Speaking of 7-0, the Thunder are also 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) the last seven times that they’d played their previous three or more games on the road, 18-4 SU their last 22 in that situation. There’s some talk that Ibaka could come back, as he’s been healing faster than expected. Obviously a healthy Ibaka would help this team a lot. I’m not going to rely on him returning though. Even with the loss in Game 2, the Thunder are still 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Obviously, they need a win here. With Durant and Westbrook rising to the occasion, I expect them to get it, covering the small number along the way. 10* Conf. Finals GOY |
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05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 77-112 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on San Antonio and OKC to finish UNDER the total. The opening games of the Eastern and the Western Conference Finals had some similarities. In both cases, the home team won and covered. Also, in both cases, the game finished well below the total. However, as we saw last night in the East, that doesn’t mean we need to expect Game 2 to also be high-scoring. Game 2 in the East saw 33 fewer points scored than Game 1. As was the case last night, we’re getting a higher O/U line to work with for tonight’s game than we were for Game 1 of this series. While the combined score may not drop 30+ points again, I expect Game 2 of this series to also prove lower scoring than the opener. After OKC’s defensive struggles in Game 1, we may see more time from rookie center Steven Adams, as Brooks may look to a bigger lineup to try and slow down the Spurs. Either way, while the Spurs are obviously pretty tough to stop, I believe we’ll see a much better defensive effort from the Thunder tonight. Prior to Game 1 of this series, the Thunder had seen their final three games against the Clippers all stay below the total. Obviously the Ibaka injury doesn’t help - however, I still believe this team is more capable defensively than most probably do. Note that the UNDER is 12-8/60% the last 20 times that they were off a double-digit loss. With such a high O/U number, note that the UNDER is 8-1 the last nine times that the Spurs played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. During that time, the Thunder have seen the UNDER go 7-4 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Going back further and we find the UNDER at 12-6-1 OKC's last 19 in that situation. Meanwhile, if we go back still further we find the UNDER at 20-9 the last 29 times that the Spurs played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. I feel this number is generously high and I expect those stats to improve tonight. 10* best bet |
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05-18-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 44 h 49 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. Homecourt didn’t mean much in the Pacers’ last series. However, I expect it to prove significant here. The Heat are still only 25-20 on the road. The Pacers are still 38-10 at home. The Heat allow 97.4 points on the road. The Pacers allow only 88.9 here at home. All four regular season meetings were won by the home team. The Pacers won the two games here by scores of 90-84 and 84-83. In both cases, Indiana was favored. This time, we’re actually getting a couple of points. Nearly everyone expects the Heat to win. I believe the Pacers match up well against them though. This is the series they’ve been waiting for all season and I expect it to bring out their best. With their last game having come Thursday, the Pacers have had an optimal amount of rest, at least for them; not too much, not too little. They’re 15-2 SU (11-6 ATS) when playing with two day’s rest. The Pacers know they can’t afford to lose another Game 1. Don’t be shocked when they score the upset. 10* main event |
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05-15-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKC. This series has been getting closer and closer and the two previous games here at LA . The first game (at OKC) was decided by 17 points, the second by 11. When the series shifted to LA for Game 3, the game was decided by only six points. Neither team ever led by double-digits. Game 4 was even closer, as it was decided by only two points. Last game? The closest yet, a 1-point win for OKC. While we can’t keep getting closer (as you can’t get closer than Game 5) another close one tonight won’t surprise. (Overall, the total points in the series is 540-539.) That said, I believe the number of the visiting Thunder is generous. Homecourt has meant little in the series, as the road team has covered four of five games. The Thunder covered both games here at LA, winning one by six and losing the other by two. Keep in mind that there are still distractions from the Sterling scandal still in LA. Additionally, the Clippers could easily be thinking about “what might have been,” after blowing Game 5 in heart-breaking (and controversial) fashion. Remember last round? Just like this series, the Thunder also saw their Game 5 (at OKC) decided by a single point, a 99-100 thriller vs. the Grizzlies. Remember what happened in Game 6? The Thunder went on the road and crushed the Grizzlies by 20 points. The Thunder know the Spurs are waiting and they’d really rather not have to drag this to a Game 7. They’re 5-1 ATS their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range and I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* main event |
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05-14-14 | PORTLAND GM5 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 -7.5 | Top | 82-104 | Win | 100 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. After dominating the first three games of the series, the Spurs stumbled in Game 4. Give the Blazers credit for showing some pride and avoiding the sweep. However, even they know that their chances of coming back to win the series are remote, at best. With the series shifting back to San Antonio, I expect the savvy Spurs to leave no room for doubt. The Spurs jumped all over the Blazers in the two games here. They were up 65-39 and 70-51 at halftime. They’re going to come out with a lot of intensity again and I feel it will be difficult for the Blazers to avoid falling behind. If/When they do fall behind, reality figures to set in - their season is done. The Spurs are 11-7 ATS (16-2 SU!) off an “upset” loss. Going back further finds them at a profitable 31-15 ATS (38-8 SU!) in that situation the past few seasons. In fact, that’s been a spot they’ve fared well in throughout the majority of the Duncan/Popovich era. The Blazers have already had a successful season and can hold their heads high. The Spurs are on a mission though and I expect them to advance with a double-digit win. 10* 2nd Rd. GOY |
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05-14-14 | BROOKLYN GM5 v. MIAMI GM5 UNDER 189 | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on Miami and Washington to finish UNDER the total. Three of the first four games in this series have topped the total, the Heat winning three of them. With the Nets facing elimination and the series shifting back to Miami, I look for a lower-scoring affair this evening. When asked about Miami’s “Game 5 mentality,” the first thing Lebron touched on was playing defense. ‘’Win. It's the mentality we go into every postseason game. Play with a sense of urgency defensively … " The Heat were very stingy in the two games here, allowing 86 and 82 points. They’ve seen the UNDER go 9-6 when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Meanwhile, the Nets have seen the UNDER go 6-3 as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. Going back further finds the UNDER at a lucrative 20-5 the last 25 times that the Nets were in that role. The last game here finished with just 176 combined points. A similar final tonight won’t surprise. 10* blue chip |
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05-13-14 | WASHINGTON GM5 v. INDIANA GM5 -5 | Top | 102-79 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. With three straight victories, the Pacers have taken this series over. The team that dominated much of the regular season has seemingly returned. That said, with a chance to close the deal and a line this low, I feel they’re providing us with excellent value. The Pacers are 19-11 ATS (22-8 SU) the last 30 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. When they finally got a chance to put the Hawks away, they did so decisively. I expect them to do so again here. 10* personal favorite |
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05-12-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM4 v. PORTLAND GM4 UNDER 211 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
I’m playing on San Antonio and Portland to finish UNDER the total. All three games in this series have resulted in blowout wins for the Spurs. All three have finished above the total. Those results have caused the O/U numbers to keep climbing higher. This one is the highest San Antonio has seen in the playoffs and is now nearly as high as the O/U line was for Portland’s last game (99-98 win) against Houston. Given that the Spurs are a far better defensive team that the Rockets, I believe that’s providing us with excellent value. Note that the UNDER is 10-4 the last 14 times that the Spurs played a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Additionally, the UNDER is 11-6 when the Blazers played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Blazers have seen the UNDER go 3-1 after having lost three or more games in a row. The last time they lost three straight, they responded by allowing just 85 points in their next game. The last game was actually on pace to stay below the total, as only 100 points had been scored at halftime. However, there was a lot of scoring in the final 15 minutes. I look for this one to be more competitive and for that to lead to more defensive intensity the entire way. 10* blue chip |
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05-10-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM3 v. PORTLAND GM3 UNDER 209 | Top | 118-103 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
I’m playing on San Antonio and Portland to finish UNDER the total. The Spurs blew out the Blazers in both games at San Antonio. Both game finished above the total. With the series shifting to Portland for Game 3, I expect the Blazers to be more competitive and for that to lead to a lower-scoring affair. The Spurs have seen the UNDER go 20-15 off three or more consecutive wins this season. The UNDER is also 7-4 when they played a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. The Blazers’ last game here had a score of 99-98. They’ve still seen the UNDER go 9-6 off a double-digit loss and I look for a much better defensive effort today. 10* best bet |
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05-09-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 215 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKC and LA to finish UNDER the total. While I obviously respect both offenses, I believe this number will again prove a little too high. With Game 2 staying below the total, the Thunder have now seen the UNDER go 16-9 the last 25 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. That includes a 5-3 mark on the road. Going back further finds the UNDER is 10-5 the last 15 times they played a road game with a total of 210 or greater. Including a 107-101 win their last visit here, the Thunder have seen their road games average 204.5 points. Thunder coach Scott Brooks had this to say: "...The intensity as the series goes along improves and it becomes greater …” I look for that to be the case on the defensive side of the ball here, as this one proves to be the lowest scoring of the series, to date. 10* main event |
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05-08-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. SAN ANTONIO GM2 UNDER 208 | Top | 97-114 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on San Antonio and Portland to finish UNDER the total. As you’re likely aware, the Spurs won big in the opener. While I won with the Spurs in that game, I feel that the better value lies with the total in this one. That game snuck over the number with a 116-92 final score. I feel we’re getting solid value the other way tonight. We’re getting a (slightly) better O/U line to work with here from Game 1. Last night, at OKC, we got a reminder of how even a small difference like that can prove significant. The first game of that series had an O/U line which ranged from 212 to 213.5. After a high-scoring opener, that line climbed by a couple of points for Game 2, up to 215 or 215.5. The final score finished at 213 - and there easily could have been another basket right at the end. Speaking of the number, this is the highest O/U line the Spurs have seen in the playoffs. Despite the Spurs being a considerably better defensive team than the Rockets, this O/U line is only a couple of baskets lower than it was for games in the Portland/Houston series. The Blazers have shown a tendency to improve defensively, off a bad loss. The UNDER is 9-5 on the season when they were off a double-digit defeat. Most recently, off a double-digit loss at Houston in Game 5, they limited the high-scoring Rockets to 99 points in Game 6. That 99-98 final stayed comfortably below the total. Their only other double-digit loss in April/May came back on 4/4. They responded with a 100-94 win next time out, another game which easily stayed beneath the number. While the Spurs scored a ton of points (65) in the first half of Game 1, the Blazers held them to a more respectable (51) amount in the second. Aldridge noted: "I think a lot of guys got taken back, but I thought guys bounced back in the second half and that shows how we're going to be next game. I thought the second half was much better for us and I think that's how we'll start the game next game.’' As good offensively as they were, the Spurs also showed that they can be very stingy. Far more so than the Blazers’ first round opponent. Indeed, they limited Portland to 37.8% shooting and just four 3-pointers, forcing 20 turnovers along the way. The most recent regular season meeting here had an O/U line of 211 but finished with only 193 combined points. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* main event |
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05-06-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. San Antonio Spurs -6.5 | Top | 92-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. We saw the road teams have success last night. However, I expect the home team to have the advantage here. Give the Blazers credit for having a great series against Houston. That was another relatively inexperienced playoff team though. Tonight, they’ll be up against a veteran team that is loaded with playoff experience and savvy, not to mention talent. The Blazers are excellent at home but only respectable on the road. The Spurs, on the other hand, are dominant (35-10) at home. They outscore teams by an average of 106-97.6 here overall. While the Blazers have been sitting around for a few days, the Spurs come in with plenty of momentum, as Sunday's Game 7 was their biggest win of the opening series. Off that 119-96 beatdown, note that the Spurs are 71-42-3 ATS (81-35 SU) the past few seasons, after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. The Spurs beat the Blazers by 13 here the last time the teams met. They were laying -8.5 points for that one. We’re getting a better line to work with and I expect another big win. 10* annihilator |
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05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. Its true that the Wizards had an easier time in the first round than the Pacers did. That has allowed them some extra preparation time, as they’ve had more time in between games than Indiana. I believe the Pacers have regained momentum though and don’t feel the small window in between games will hurt them. In fact, I feel it will work to their advantage. Note that the Wizards have some similarities with the Hawks, in terms of playing style. So, the Pacers should be somewhat ready for them. Meanwhile, when they’d been playing so well, the Wizards probably didn’t need such an extended break between games. Note that Washington is only 2-4 ATS (1-5 SU) the last six times it played with three or more day’s rest in between games. Looking at some stats and we find that the Pacers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. They’re also 19-9 ATS (21-7 SU) the last few seasons, as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Pacers have beaten the Wizards 12 straight times here, most recently a 93-66 destruction in January. Before that, it was a 93-73 blowout in November. They’ve been laying a minimum of -6.5 points for all eight meetings against the Wizards here since 2010, including -9.5 and -10 for this season’s two meetings. We’re getting a much smaller number to work with here and I believe that’s providing excellent value. 10* personal favorite |
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05-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Admittedly, the Spurs haven’t been very good to me this series. That won’t prevent me from backing them here though. We saw the importance of homecourt for the three Game 7’s yesterday. All three home teams won. Two of them covered. The victories came by an average of nearly 10 points a game. One could certainly make a case for the Mavericks, as they’ve played the Spurs tough every game. At the end of the day, I believe the Spurs’ depth and experience will prove to be too much for them. Not only are the Spurs at home, they’re a superior team overall. Popovich, Duncan and co. have all been here before. They’ve got nothing to prove. There’s no sense of panic. Duncan had this to say about having to play a Game 7. ‘’It doesn’t matter how many games it takes. We’re not worried or disappointed.'' The Spurs, who were favored in Game 6, are an outstanding 30-15 ATS (37-8 SU!) the last 45 times that they were off an upset loss. I don’t believe run is over yet. I look for them to come through with their best game of the series, en route to a big win and cover. 10* main event |
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05-04-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -2.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
I’m playing on TORONTO. Many are likely going to back Brooklyn here. True, the Nets have a lot of recognizable faces and plenty of playoff experience. However, I really like the character of this well-coached Raptor team and I believe that playing an early Sunday game (something they do regularly) here at Toronto gives them the advantage. We saw the importance of homecourt for the three Game 7’s yesterday. All three home teams won. Two of them covered. The victories came by an average of nearly 10 points a game, each by a minimum of five. Brooklyn’s Andray Blatche was doing some trash-talking and guaranteed the Nets would win this game. That didn’t sit well with the Raptors. Toronto guard Greivis Vasquez had this to say: ''Who does he think he is? He's not KG or Paul Pierce or Jason Kidd. We're not going to listen to his nonsense.’' I agree with DeRozan when he said that the Nets had more pressure on them. He had this to say: ''Yeah, man. We ain't got not 100 million payroll or whatever they got. That's all on them. At the end of the day, they have more to lose than us.'' The Nets are just 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) as road underdogs of three or fewer points. They’re also 2-3 ATS (1-4 SU) when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. On the other hand, the Raptors are 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as home favorites of three or less. Don’t be surprised when they improve on those stats this afternoon. 10* breakfast club |
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05-03-14 | GOLDEN STATE GM7 v. LA CLIPPERS GM7 -7 | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
I’m playing on LA. This series has certainly had a little bit of everything. While the last game came down to the wire, there have also been a few lopsided victories. The more focused team and/or the one which has overcome distractions, has generally had the advantage. With this being a Game 7, once the game starts, I expect both teams to effectively block out the distractions and this one to be decided on the floor. Playing at home, I like the Clippers’ chances. There’s a fair amount of talk about LA’s Chris Paul being injured. He’s a warrior though and I’m not too worried about that. Paul had this to say: ''I'll be there. Seven-thirty, that ball's throwed up, I'll be there. Can't wait.’” I’m not so confident that Golden State’s Jermaine O’neal will be able to bounce back and be ready the way Paul is for the Clippers. Even if he plays, he’s likely to be at less than 100%. For a Warriors’ team already without Bogut, that figures to spell trouble. While they failed to cover in all three games at Oakland, the Clippers won each of the last two here at LA by double-digits. Those wins came by 10 and 40 points. With Paul refusing to let his team lose, I look for the Clippers to overcome the adversity with another convincing win and cover. 10* personal favorite |
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05-03-14 | MEMPHIS GM7 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 -7.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKC. The Thunder have regained the momentum and are back at home. They fought hard all season to be able to play this game here and I expect them to rise to the occasion with their best effort. As if beating the Thunder in a Game 7 at OKC wasn’t already going to be difficult enough, the Grizzlies will be without Zach Randolph, who has been suspended. While that caused the line to climb slightly, I think his loss is greater than was reflected by the relatively small move. Throw in the fact that Conley is way less than 100% and things aren't going to easy for the Grizzlies, who are rarely as good on the road as they are at home. Conley commented: "Me being banged up, you're going to have to ask more out of different guys, see a lot of guys step up ...'' The Thunder are the stronger team. They won by 20 last time out, their second double-digit win in the series. Playing at home, I look for them to dictate the tempo en route to another convincing win and cover. 10* |
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05-02-14 | San Antonio Spurs -3 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. I haven’t had much success with the Spurs in this series. That won’t prevent me from backing them here though. The Mavs got big games from Nowitzki and Carter last time out and still lost by six. A closer look shows that all three San Antonio victories have come by a minimum of four points. Tonight, with a lower line, that’ll be enough for a cover. Speaking of the lower line, note that the Mavs are only 2-6 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home underdogs of three or fewer points. The Spurs, who are 70-41-3 ATS (80-34 SU) the past couple of seasons after scoring 105 or more in their previous game, have got the momentum back in their corner. Needless to day, they don’t want to see a Game 7. I believe they’ll smell the blood in the water and close things out, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event |
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05-01-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
10* Under. Analysis before 9am PST |
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04-30-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 103-109 | Push | 0 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. While they didn’t make it easy on themselves, the Spurs dug deep and came away with a badly needed victory last time out. Now, despite the venue shifting back to San Antonio, they’re only laying a couple more points than they were at Dallas. I believe that’s providing excellent value. While the Spurs dominated all season, the Mavs squeaked into the playoffs. This was almost like a rebuilding year for Dallas, while San Antonio had championship aspirations from the start. Don’t forget that before this series, the Spurs had beaten the Mavs 10 straight times. They’re still 16-5 SU and 13-8 ATS (or 13-7-1 ATS) the last 21 in the series. It should be noted that Blair is suspended for Dallas, for a kick in the last game. When he left the last game, he was 5 for 5 on shooting with 12 points and 11 rebounds (+ 2 steals) in 16 minutes. I believe that his absence will prove to be a big blow. The Spurs have been here before. They're 23-11-1 ATS (24-11 SU) the last 35 times that they’ve been tied in a playoff series. I believe the Spurs now have the momentum back on their side. I expect them to put it all together with their best game of the series, leading to a convincing win and cover. 10* personal favorite |
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04-29-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
I’m playing on Chicago and Washington to finish UNDER the total. As you’re likely aware, the first four games of this series have all finished above the total. While that’s surprised me, its also worked in our favor for tonight. Ever so slowly, since the beginning of the series, the O/U lines have been creeping up higher. (Nine days ago, the opening here had a line of 177.5.) The Bulls obviously have their backs against the wall. Playing at home, I expect them to emphasize slowing the pace and improved defense. They’ve been a much better defensive team here at Chicago - that’s been their strength here in the Thibodeau era. While the first two games here did both top the total, the UNDER remains a profitable 73-52 here the past few seasons, including a 16-9 mark when the Bulls have been listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During that time, the Wizards have still seen the UNDER go 66-51 on the road. That includes a 17-10 UNDER mark as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range and a 7-3 UNDER record when the O/U line ranged from 180 to 184.5. I feel the number is fairly generous and I look for this to be the lowest scoring game of the series. 10* blue chip |
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04-28-14 | San Antonio Spurs -4 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 93-89 | Push | 0 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Give the Mavericks credit. They’re up 2-1 and playing Game 4 here at home. However, lets not forget that the Spurs were the best team in the league during the regular season. Night after night, city after city, they brought their A-Game. While its not an elimination game, its still one the Spurs know they desperately need. I expect them to be at their best. Keep in mind that the Spurs 30-11 road record was better than the Mavs’ 23-18 mark here at Dallas. While the Spurs dominated all season, the Mavs squeaked into the playoffs. This was almost like a rebuilding year for Dallas, while San Antonio had championship aspirations from the start. Don’t forget that before this series, the Spurs had beaten the Mavs 10 straight times. They’re still 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS the last 20 in the series. Despite failing to get it done last time out, the Spurs are still a dominating 30-14 ATS (36-8 SU) the last 44 times that they were off an “upset” loss, 10-6 ATS this season. On the other hand, the Mavs are just 5-7 ATS off a SU victory as an underdog. The Spurs are 15-9 ATS the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. That includes a 6-3 ATS mark this season. Conversely, the Mavs are 2-7 ATS when playing a home game with a total in the same range, 8-15 ATS the past couple of seasons. Losing in the manner the Spurs lost Game 3 can be tough on a team. However, as Ginobili noted of the extremely well-coached Spurs: ''On a tough blow like this one, having been there, having suffered way worse than this, can help … We’ve got to go for it and play better.” I’m not counting out the top seeds yet. I expect the Spurs to play their best game of the series and for that to lead to a win and cover. 10* West Conf Opening Rnd. GOY |
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04-28-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. The Pacers dug deep last game and came through with a critical victory. Back home, where they’re typically much stronger, I expect them to follow it up with another very important win. I played on the Pacers in Game 2, which was the most recent game here. Having lost the opener, they were fully focused on the task at hand. They won by 16. Including that one-sided win, the Pacers have now taken seven of the last nine meetings with the Hawks, here at Indiana. The last five of those victories (and six of the seven overall) all came by double-digits. Indiana wins came by 16, 10, 23, 15 and 17 points. I believe the Pacers are the superior team. They were dominant for most of the season, before going through a lull towards the end. I believe they’ve reawakened and the team that earned the #1 seed is ready to return. They’re still 36-7 here at Indiana, outscoring teams by an average of more than 10 points per game. Paul George had this to say: "We've got to put this game and this series away.” I look for George and co. to do so in convincing fashion. 10* personal favorite |
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04-26-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189 | Top | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKC and Memphis to finish UNDER the total. Last game finished above the total with 193 combined points. I expect a lower score this evening. In case you missed watching it, a closer look at the box score from the last game shows that there were actually only 170 points scored in regulation. Even with 23 scored in OT, the final score didn’t go over by much. Note that the previous game also went to OT. So, the scoring averages for the series look a lot higher than they otherwise would have. The UNDER is 20-11 the past couple of seasons here when the O/U line has fallen in the 185 to 189.5 range. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 9-6 when the Grizzlies were listed as home underdogs of three or fewer points. The only game that didn’t got to OT in this series stayed below the total. Assuming we can avoid another extra period, I look for tonight’s game to do the same. 10* best bet |
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04-25-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Washington Wizards UNDER 183.5 | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
I’m playing on Chicago and Washington to finish UNDER the total. Both games at Chicago finished above the total. With the series shifting to Washington, I’m expecting a lower-scoring Game 3. The Bulls have seen the UNDER go 5-3 the last eight times that they were off three or or more straight losses. A defensive minded team, when things get tough, they tend to lean on their defense more than ever. Even with the Game 2 loss, the UNDER is still 5-2 when they were trailing in a playoff series. Note that the UNDER is also 8-2 the last 10 times that the Bulls played with two day’s rest in between games. Additionally, we find the UNDER at 5-1 on the season when the Bulls were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. Even better, during the same time, the Wizards have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 when listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. One of those games came the last time that these teams met here. The Wizards were a -2 point favorite for that 4/5 meeting. The O/U line was 183.5. However, the teams combined for only 174. A similar number tonight won’t surprise. 10* main event |
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04-24-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
I’m playing on LA and Golden State to finish UNDER the total. After both games at LA were high-scoring and after the Warriors were embarrassed last time out, I expect a much lower-scoring Game 3. The change of venue can often bring a change in tempo. While they score about the same wherever they play, the Warriors allow considerably fewer points at home than they do on the road. They should be committed to improved defense tonight. Curry noted: 'We're not going to quit. We're not going to just lie down and allow a team to do what they want against us. We’re going to be physical …” The UNDER is 19-7 when the Warriors had allowed 105 or more points in their previous game, 8-3 after they played their previous three on the road and 6-3 off a double-digit loss. For the season, games here are averaging only 202.1 points. Meanwhile Clipper road games have been lower-scoring (207) than Clipper home games. All things considered, I believe this number is generously high. 10* Main Event |
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04-23-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -8 | Top | 113-92 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs took the Mavs’ best punch in Game 1. While they didn’t cover, they emerged victorious. I expect that close call to serve as a wake up call and feel that the Mavs aren’t likely to get another shot at an upset.
The common logic here seems to be that if the Mavs were so close, even without a big game from Dirk. That now if Dirk plays better, they’ll win easily. That’s not necessarily the case though. Everything else is never equal - so one can’t look at it that way.
The Spurs are 29-4 SU and 22-11 ATS the last 33 times that they played with two day’s rest in between games. They’ve dominated in the first round the past couple of seasons and I look for them to prove they’re the more complete team tonight. 10* personal favorite
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04-20-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -9 | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -114 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
10* Spurs. Analysis before 7am PST Sunday. |
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04-14-14 | Orlando Magic v. Chicago Bulls -12 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
I’m playing on CHICAGO. Both teams lost yesterday. For Orlando, it was just another loss, business as usual. However, for the Bulls, it was a big loss, a game they would have liked to have won. I expect this well-coached team to bounce back with its best effort.
While the Bulls already know they’ll have home court advantage for the first round, they’re still trying to finish with the #3 seed, instead of the #4, which is the reason yesterday’s loss was a tough one. Noah had this to say about yesterday’s game and the importance of getting ready for today: "We let a big game slip. It was probably the biggest game of the season. Disappointing the way our mentality wasn't good, but overall we just won't have time, just got to let this one go, get ready tomorrow.” The Bulls can still get the #3 seed but they need to win both their games (after this, they play at Charlotte on Wednesday) and hope that Toronto loses one of its games. (The Bulls could also lose one and hope that Toronto loses both its last two but given the Raptors are hosting Milwaukee tonight, that scenario isn’t that likely.) While the Bulls are 26-14 at home, the Magic are 4-36 on the road. No other team has a worse road record. The Bulls, who are 9-6-1 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games, are in one of this season's better roles here. They’re 3-1 ATS as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. (The Magic are 2-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range.) The last time that the Bulls played the second of b2b games, they won by 18 points, at Washington. Their previous two times in that situation both also resulted in double-digit wins. Not only do the Bulls need to win to stay alive for the #3 seed, this is also their regular season home finale. Additionally, the Magic beat them here earlier in the season. In other words, there should be no shortage of motivation. I’m expecting a blowout. 10* personal favorite |
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04-13-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Indiana Pacers -2 | Top | 97-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. Some might scratch their heads a little to see the Pacers favored here. After all, they’ve really struggled in recent weeks while the Thunder have continued to play well. I believe Indiana is favored for good reason though.
For starters, lets not forget that the Pacers are still 34-6 at home. That’s a much better record than the Thunder have on the road. (They’re 25-14 away from OKC.) While the Thunder allow more than 100 points (101.2) per game on the road, the Pacers allow just 87.8 here at Indiana. Perhaps more importantly, at least in this case, the Pacers “need” this game more than the Thunder. OKC already has the #2 seed locked up. It can’t get better, or worse. I’m not counting on it - but its possible that the Thunder could limit the minutes of one/some of their stars/starters. Meanwhile, the Pacers are still in the hunt for the top seed in the East - although they’ll still need a little help from the Heat. The fact that Miami lost by double-digits at Atlanta last night figures to give them some hope. While gaining the #1 seed would surely be a big deal for the Pacers, just gaining some confidence from being able to beat a championship contender - one they would love to see in the Finals - would be huge. Many of their recent struggles would be forgotten if they could go out and deliver a victory this afternoon. I expect them to be extremely motivated to do just that. While I’ve already mentioned that the Thunder have played better than the Pacers down the stretch, it should be noted that OKC is actually only 7-10 ATS its last 17 against teams with a winning record. The Pacers, who got blown out at OKC earlier, are 12-9 ATS (16-5 SU) when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to bring their “A Game” here, improving on those stats in convincing fashion. 10* Main Event |
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04-11-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Utah Jazz +8 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on UTAH. The Blazers are hot. The Jazz are not. The Blazers are getting ready for the playoffs and fighting for a better seed. The Jazz are getting ready to go golfing. Needless to say, most will likely be backing Portland. As is often the case, I’ll be on the opposite side.
Its true that the Blazers have more to play for, on paper. Its also true that they’ve been a better team all year. That’s all been factored into the line though. I believe the number is generously high and I look for the Jazz to provide a much tougher test than most will be expecting. The Jazz lost their last game (against Dallas) by double-digits. I believe there were some positives though. The Mavs hit 16 of their first 17 shots, which is awfully tough to overcome. Yet, the Jazz didn’t hang their heads. They kept fighting the whole way. In fact, while the damage was already done, they outscored Dallas after the first period. (They won two of the final three quarters while losing the other by a single point.) While the Blazers are hot, I don’t expect them to hit 16 of their first 17 shots - and I look for Utah to have learned a lesson from the last loss and to come out with more intensity from the opening tip. Utah’s Trey Burke noted: We have to be patient ... continue to fight out there, continue to play hard … It's tough to beat a team when they're shooting 94 percent in the first quarter. We can't allow that to happen." While they’ve still been solid on the road, the Blazers aren’t as dominating away from Portland. They outscore teams by an average of 1.4 points on the road. Meanwhile, the Jazz get outscored by an average of 3.2 points per game at home. This is the Blazers’ final road game and they’re ned two games come against a pair of playoff teams, the Warriors and the Clippers. I believe it will be easy for them to take the “lowly Jazz” for granted. Meanwhile, this is Utah’s final game against a team which will be going to the playoffs. For the Jazz, that means that this is their final “meaningful game” (chance to play a small role in shaping the playoff picture) and I expect that to provide them with some motivation. (Their next three games come at Denver, vs the Lakers and at Minnesota.) Added motivation for the Jazz stems from the fact that the Blazers have beaten them in all three meetings this season. They’ll be looking to avoid the series sweep, something which has never happened against Portland. The Blazers have only won one of their last five games by more than seven points, that 12-point win coming against the banged-up Lakers. Their last two games came against the Pelicans and Kings and were decided by just five combined points. The Jazz are a profitable 9-5 ATS (7-7 SU) after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game. They’ve been in that situation twice since the start of March and they responded by winning each of their next games outright. I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* N.W. Div GOY. |
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04-09-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Washington Wizards -5 | Top | 94-88 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
I’m playing on WASHINGTON. This is a big game for both teams, in terms of postseason seeding. Both teams have already punched their playoff tickets. However, they’re batting each other for the sixth spot. Playing at home, I expect the Wizards to have the edge.
Sixth place figures to be a more attractive proposition than seventh. That’s because it would mean facing either Toronto or Chicago in the first round. The alternative is Indiana or Miami, for the team which finishes in seventh. Even with the Pacers’ recent struggles, they’ve still been pretty hard to beat at home and a date with the Bulls or Raptors is likely more appealing - needless to say, they won’t want to have to face Miami. While the Bobcats are a respectable 23-16 at home, they’re only 16-22 on the road. The Bobcats may have taken two of three meetings against the Wizards so far but they’re still only 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS against divisional opponents. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 8-5 SU and 7-5-1 ATS in their divisional games. While the Bobcats are 9-13 SU off an upset win, the Wizards are 8-5 SU off an upset loss. Throw in the fact that the Wizards are 24-17 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss and I say its time for some payback. 10* personal fav |
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04-09-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Washington Wizards OVER 192 | Top | 94-88 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
I’m playing on Washington and Charlotte to finish OVER the total. I believe this number, which has come down from its opener, will prove to be a little on the low side.
These teams just met on 3/31, at Charlotte. That game produced 194 points but because the total was a little higher than this one, it resulted in an “under.” When they met at Washington last month, the O/U line was 199. This one is considerably lower, which I believe is giving us very solid line value. Charlotte road games have averaged 197.4 points, which is quite a lot more than Bobcat home games. Meanwhile, games here at Washington average 198.9 points. Note that the OVER is 8-3 when the Wizards have played a home game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range. After being limited to a mere 78 points (by the stingy Bulls) in their last game, if recent history is any indication, the Wizards should be highly motivated to put some points on the board tonight. The OVER is 10-3 when the Wizards were off a double-digit loss. (The last time they were in that situation, their next game produced 224 points.) The OVER is also 5-1 when the Wizards scored 85 or fewer points in their previous game. The last time that happened, their next game finished with 206 combined points. I look for more of the same this evening. 10* blue chip |
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04-07-14 | Kentucky v. Connecticut UNDER 135.5 | Top | 54-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
I’m playing on UConn and Kentucky to finish UNDER the total. This number has climbed from its opener and I believe its generously high.
Note that the Wildcats have seen the UNDER go a profitable 30-14 the last 44 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s, 8-4 the last 12. This season, the UNDER is also 10-5 when the Huskies played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. The Huskies are here primarily because of their defense. Indeed, they limited Florida to 53 points (60-53 final) after holding Michigan State to just 54, a 60-54 victory. Coach Kevin Ollie noted: ''Hopefully we have an opportunity to fall back on our defense. We have been doing that the whole year.’' While Shabazz Napier is the undisputed offensive star who gets the majority of the attention, fellow UConn guard Ryan Boatright’s defensive contributions have been key. Boatright was quoted saying: ''Defense is the biggest thing for me … I want to make him uncomfortable, don't let him get in a rhythm or flow. Their guards, God blessed them with height and they will try to take advantage of smaller guys like us but I've been the smaller guy my whole life and I've never backed down.’' Note that the Huskies have seen the UNDER go 4-0 their last four against teams from the SEC and that their last tournament championship game (Louisville in the AAC Tourney) also stayed below the number. Meanwhile, Kentucky has seen the UNDER go 3-0 its last three tournament finals. This year’s SEC Championship produced only 121 points while the Wildcats’ last NCAA title game (vs Kansas in 2012) produced only 126 points, despite having a total of 138.5. Speaking of 138.5, that was also the O/U number when these teams faced each other on 4/2/2011. Yet, the teams combined for only 111 points, a 56-55 win for the Huskies. While the faces are different for tonight’s “rematch,” I look for the final combined score to again prove lower than many will be expecting. 10* main event |
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04-06-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Phoenix Suns +3 | Top | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
I’m playing on PHOENIX. While I really respect the Thunder, I believe they’re over-valued here.
The Thunder are certainly a solid road team. However, the Suns have arguably been even better here at Phoenix. While the Thunder have 23 wins away from OKC, the Suns have 25 wins here at Phoenix. The Thunder outscore teams by a 104.8 to 100.8 margin on the road. However, the Suns have outscored teams by a wider 108.2 to 102.6 margin here at Phoenix. Not only have the Suns been arguably better at home than the Thunder have on the road, they also need this game more. OKC is fairly comfortably in second in the conference while the Suns are in a dogfight with Memphis and Dallas for the final spot. With four of their final five on the road, this game becomes even more critical for the Suns. While they lost both at OKC, they upset the Thunder in this season’s lone meeting here. Including last month's result here, the Thunder are 2-4 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Meanwhile, the Suns are a lucrative 27-13 ATS when listed as underdogs. I expect them to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST another cover here. 10* best bet |
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04-06-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -8 | Top | 107-88 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. While the Pacers have had real trouble on the road recently, they’re still very tough to beat here at home. I expect their best effort today.
The Pacers are an outstanding 24-1 at home against Eastern Conference opponents, 34-5 here overall. That includes a 108-98 win against the Hawks here on 2/18. They were favored by 10 points in that one - but we’re getting a better line to work with here. Including that victory, the Pacers have beaten the Hawks six straight times here. They were 4-1-1 ATS in those games, five of the wins coming by double-digits. While they could badly use a win, the Hawks are in one of their worst roles. They’re an ugly 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range. Overall, they’re an ugly 2-13 their last 15 on the road, going a money-burning 3-11-1 ATS. The Pacers, who play three of their final four on the road, have only one more regular season home game after this - and that comes against OKC. That makes taking care of business here very important - and I expect them to do just that. 10* personal favorite |
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin UNDER 139 | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 130 h 51 m | Show |
I’m playing on Kentucky and Wisconsin to finish UNDER the total. While I respect both offenses, I believe this O/U line is generously high.
Wisconsin has really elevated its defense since the tournament began. The Badgers limited Arizona to 63 points last time out, scoring just 64 themselves. While that 127-point game was low-scoring, keep in mind that was after overtime and that only 108 points were scored in regulation. Prior to that, the Badgers held high-scoring Baylor to a mere 52 points. The Bears managed only 31.6% of their field goals, just 13.3% of their 3-point shots. Remember, this is the same Wisconsin team that began the tournament by holding American to a paltry 35 points, on less than 30% shooting. Note that the Badgers have seen the UNDER go 7-3 their last 10 tournament semi-final games. During that stretch, they’ve also seen the UNDER go 9-2 when matched up against SEC teams, excluding pushes and games that didn’t have a total True, Kentucky has been involved in higher-scoring games than Wisconsin. The Wildcats have still held five of their last seven opponents to less than 70 points though, none of those teams managing more than 76. Excluding pushes and games that didn’t have a total, the Wildcats have seen the UNDER go 17-8 when listed as a favorite. As I said, I believe the number is generously high. 10* blue chip |
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04-05-14 | Connecticut v. Florida -6 | Top | 63-53 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
I’m playing on FLORIDA. While the Huskies deserve a lot of credit for making it this far, I expect their run to come to an end here.
While both teams are very capable on both sides of the ball, I believe the Gators’ edge on the defensive end of the floor will ultimately prove the difference. The Gators allow 56.7 points per game. The Huskies allow 63.7. Over their last five games, the Gators are allowing a mere 56 points, holding opposing teams to a 39% shooting percentage. During that stretch, the Huskies are allowing 69.4 points with opposing teams shooting 42.7%. Speaking of good defenses, note that the Huskies are only 4-6 SU/ATS the last 10 times that they faced a team which allowed 64 or fewer points per game. During that stretch, the Gators are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) when facing a team which gives up 64 or less. While Scottie Wilbekin was the SEC Player of the Year, he isn’t get the same type of recognition that Shabazz Napier is. Whether or not that’s fair, I believe that the rest of the Gator lineup is far more balanced. Four Florida players average double-digits in scoring. It should be noted that this is Billy Donovan’s fourth Final Four and he’s won in each of his three previous trips. True, the Huskies did beat the Gators earlier in the season. However, Florida hasn’t lost a game since then. While being in the Final 4 is all the motivation any team needs, it should be noted that the Gators are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to improve on those stats in relatively convincing fashion. 10* |
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04-04-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics -9.5 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
I’m playing on BOSTON. The road team has won both meetings so far this season. I expect a big win for the home team this evening though.
On an extended losing streak and with four of their next five on the road - one of those at Philadelphia against these same 76’ers - the Celtics know that this is their best opportunity to reward the home faithful with one last big win. Boston guard Jerryd Bayless had this to say: "I think Friday is another opportunity, and we just need to take advantage of it. We have a winnable game on Friday and hopefully we're able to pull it out .. " While the 76’ers finally stopped the bleeding a few games back, they’re still a terrible team. They lost by 30 (vs. Charlotte) last time out and they get outscored by an average of 12 points per game away from Philadelphia. Note that the 76’ers are an ugly 15-31 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. Bottom line: I expect the Celtics to be the more motivated team and I look for them to pull away for a double-digit victory. 10* personal favorite |
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04-04-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Memphis Grizzlies -9 | Top | 92-100 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
I’m playing on MEMPHIS. After a tough road trip, the Grizzlies figure to be happy to be home. Off an ugly loss at Minnesota, I expect them to bounce back with a big win.
The Grizzlies haven’t had many home games lately. In fact, they’ve only played six games at Memphis since the start of March. A closer look at those results shows that they were a perfect 6-0 in those games and that EVERY one of the wins came by double-digits. Going back a little further finds that the Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 here since mid-February, a dominating 16-2 here since 1/10. On the other hand, the Nuggets are only 13-24 on the road this season. They’ve lost their last four on the road and two of their last three away games resulted in double-digit losses. The Grizzlies know they need all the wins that they can get right now. They also know they’ve got some tough games on deck, making it all the more important to take advantage of tonight’s opportunity. They beat the Nuggets by 21 points (120-99) in this season’s lone meeting here and I expect another double-digit win this evening. 10* Main Event |
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04-03-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKC. Admittedly, its tough to beat the Spurs. Indeed, no team has done so for many weeks. The Thunder are one of the few clubs capable of doing so though. In fact, the Thunder have beaten the Spurs four straight times overall and six straight times, here at OKC. With the schedule in their favor, I look for the Thunder to continue that recent dominance, snapping the Spurs’ win streak at 19.
While the Thunder had the last few days off, the Spurs are off a game vs. the Warriors last night. True, they’re more than capable of winning in a b2b spot. Still, this will also be their third game in four days and their fifth in the last seven. Going back a little further finds that this will be the Spurs’ ninth game in 14 days. By comparison, this will be OKC’s sixth game, during the same stretch. That’s a pretty difficult scheduling spot for the Spurs, even if their wins have been coming easily. While Popovich doesn’t always reveal his plans until close to game-time, given his tendencies and the tough schedule, it certainly wouldn’t surprise to see one or more players given the night off. It would be easy to assume that the Spurs are great in the “revenge” role. After all, they’re so well-coached and they’re very good in nearly every role. That hasn’t been the case this season though. They’re 7-12 ATS when attempting to avenge a loss, 6-3 ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss. Playing at home and playing with the fresher legs, I expect the Thunder, who are still trying to catch the Spurs in the standings to take care of business. 10* main event |
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04-01-14 | Houston Rockets v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 209 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on Brooklyn and Houston to finish UNDER the total. Both teams have been involved in some high-scoring games recently and each enter this evening’s game on an “over” streak. I believe that those results have helped to provide us with very fair value on the the total.
Last season, these teams played a high-scoring game at Houston, the final score finishing well above the O/U line of 200. When they met for the rematch at Brooklyn, the O/U line climbed all the way to 207.5. However, the final combined score was only 202. This year’s first meeting was also at Houston. Once again, the final score exceeded the total. Just like last year, we’re now getting a considerably higher number to work with, for the rematch at Brooklyn. While its true that Houston games are averaging a high 208.9 points on the season, its also true that Brooklyn games are averaging a much lower 197.9 and 197.7 here at Brooklyn. That number has been coming down lately too as the Nets have held 12 straight visiting teams below the 100 point mark. During that stretch, they've allowed an average of only 92.3 points. Last time out, they held the T-Wolves to 7.8 points below their season average, this coming after Minnesota had scored a franchise-record 143 in its previous victory. Note that the UNDER is 24-13-1 the last 38 times that the Nets played a game where the O/U line fell in the 205 to 209.5 range, 2-1 the last three. During that stretch, the Nets have also seen the UNDER go a solid 38-29-3 (567%) when facing a team which averages 99 or more points per game. I look for those stats to improve this evening as the Nets continue their solid defense at home and the final combined score stays beneath the generous number. 10* main event |
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03-31-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons -5.5 | Top | 111-116 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
I’m playing on DETROIT. I successfully played on the Bucks on 3/27, in their win against the Lakers. At the time, I suggested that they would be highly motivated to take advantage of the most winnable game remaining on their schedule. This time, I believe the shoe is on the other foot. A look at the Pistons’ remaining schedule shows that this is the most winnable game remaining on Detroit’s schedule, at least on paper. This time, I expect it to be the Pistons who will be highly motivated to make the most of the opportunity to win one for the home fans.
While the Pistons are admittedly pretty bad, the Bucks are worse. Their 14-59 record, which is the worst in the league, includes an ugly 5-31 mark on the road. They’re 1-19 SU on the road in 2014, 0-9 their last nine. While they split this season’s meetings at Milwaukee, the Pistons are 15-5 the last 20 times that they hosted the Bucks. That includes a 113-94 blowout win here back in November. In addition to wanting to snap their skid and win one for the home fans, I believe the Pistons will be hungry to bounce back from Saturday’s debacle, at Philadelphia. Its bad enough that they were the team that the 76’ers snapped their losing streak against, but the 76’ers crushed them. That was embarrassing and I look for them to respond with their very best effort, en route to a convincing win and cover. 10* |
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03-30-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics OVER 183.5 | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
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03-30-14 | Kentucky v. Michigan +2 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
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03-30-14 | Connecticut v. Michigan State -5 | Top | 60-54 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin v. Arizona UNDER 130.5 | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
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03-29-14 | Dayton v. Florida -10 | Top | 52-62 | Push | 0 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
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03-28-14 | Michigan State v. Virginia +2.5 | Top | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 108 h 45 m | Show |
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03-28-14 | Kentucky v. Louisville -4.5 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -124 | 108 h 59 m | Show |
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03-28-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets OVER 215.5 | Top | 133-102 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
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03-27-14 | UCLA v. Florida UNDER 138 | Top | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 22 m | Show |
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03-27-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Milwaukee Bucks -1 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
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03-27-14 | Dayton v. Stanford -2.5 | Top | 82-72 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 47 m | Show |
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03-26-14 | California +8.5 v. SMU | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
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