Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-19-16 | Thunder v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers won by eight at OKC exactly one month ago. Last spring, they beat the Thunder by a dozen points here. With the schedule in their favor, I like their chances again today. While it wasn't exactly taxing, the Thunder played (at Philly) yesterday, winning by 14 but failing to cover the inflated spread. They're only 4-7-1 ATS (5-7 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. They're in a few other unfavorable situations/roles (for them) too. One might expect them to fare better in this situation, but the Thunder are only 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. They're also 9-17-1 ATS against Eastern Conference teams, 1-6-1 ATS against teams from the Central. Additionally, they're 8-18-1 ATS off a double-digit win and 6-12-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins. Even off the OT loss vs. Toronto, the Pacers remain a healthy 23-12 ATS against teams with a winning record. I look for them to bring their 'A Game' again this evening. 10* best bet |
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03-19-16 | Yale v. Duke -6 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Duke. Yale is certainly going to be the sentimental favorite. The Ivy League school that never makes it to the tournament against the perennial powerhouse that everyone loves to hate. Sentiment doesn't cash tickets though. Talent does. Yale was indeed impressive against Baylor. Duke had its wake up call though and won't be caught off guard. Admittedly, the Blue Devils don't have the depth that they'd like, a problem that may rear its head as they advance into the later rounds. The starting lineup is still considerably stronger than the one they'll face today though. The Blue Devils are 11-5 ATS the past couple of seasons after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game, a situation they're 59-34 ATS in over the years. They were laying -14.5 points when they beat Yale by 19 points back in late November and I believe that getting them at less than half that price is a bargain. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-19-16 | Wichita State v. Miami (Fla) +2 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami. Not too often that you'll find a #11 seed favored over a #3 seed. However, the Shockers probably deserved better than an #11 seed to begin with. I won with Wichita State in its "play in" game against Vanderbilt, so I'm well aware of what this team brings to the table. As you're aware, the Shockers followed up that victory with an impressive blowout of Arizona last game. That said, I still don't feel they should be favored here. I also believe that with this being an early game, that the "extra" play in game may take a toll here. Regardless, they're going to find a determined and underrated Miami team waiting for them. True, the Canes have failed to cover four in a row for the second time this season. The previous time that happened, they followed it up with a double-digit blowout of Duke. Overall, they're a perect 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover the spread in their previous three or more games, going a profitable 28-12 ATS their last 40 lined games in that situation. The Canes know they're an underdog here and I expect them to come in with a chip on their shoulder. Angel Rodriguez noted: “I think throughout the year we’ve been disrespected, to a lot of people we haven’t done enough to prove ourselves, but this is March, and the spread doesn’t mean anything." Don't be shocked when Miami advances. 10* Breakfast Club |
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03-18-16 | Thunder v. 76ers +16 | Top | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I know its not much "fun" taking a bad team against a good team. I'm not here for fun though; my only concern is winners. In this case, I believe the "bad team:" is in a good spot. Obviously, with a 30-37-1 ATS (9-59 SU!) the 76ers have been pretty inconsistent again this season. They're continuing to fight hard on most nights though, as they did yesterday. Yes, the 76ers are playing the second of b2b games, a situation they haven't been too good (5-9 ATS) in. It should be noted that the Thunder play a bigger game (at Indiana) tomorrow though, which may be more of a factor than Philly's second of b2b games. (The last time that Thunder played the front-end of b2b games, they lost outright against Minnesota, falling to 0-2 SU/ATS their last two in that situation.) The 76ers are 5-0 their last five as home underdogs of greater than 15 points and 16-8-1 ATS in 25 games against teams from the West. I'm grabbing the points. 10* best bet |
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03-18-16 | South Dakota State v. Maryland -9.5 | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. Many people like taking #12 seeds. After Yale and Arkansas Little Rock, a pair of #12 seeds, both won yesterday, that may be more true than ever today. This is one #5 vs. #12 matchup where I see the fifth seed having a significant advantage though. The Terps have more size, more skill, better athletes and better ball handlers. Needless to say, they're more battle-tested against quality opposition. Though this game is out in the Pacific Northwest (Spokane) I expect the venue and tempo to favor the Terps. While the Jackrabbits are just 6-8 ATS their last 14 neutral court games, the Terps are 5-1 SU/ATS in neutral court games this season, 2-0 SU/ATS when the total ranged from 140 to 144.5. Going back a couple of years finds them at 7-1 ATS when playing a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range; they're 17-4 ATS their last 21 in that situation. The Terps, who are off a loss against Michigan State, have responded to their last two losses with a double-digit win in their next game, beating Illinois by 26 and Nebraska by 11. I expect them to pull away for another double-digit win this afternoon. 10* Rd Of 64 G.O.Y. |
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03-18-16 | Hawaii v. California UNDER 141.5 | Top | 77-66 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on Hawaii and Cal to finish UNDER the total. For two teams that are both stingy defensively, I believe this number is generously high. Hawaii allows 66.5 ppg, limiting opposing teams to just 39.4% shooting. Cal also holds teams below 40% shooting, as opposing teams connect on just 39.3% of their shots against the Bears, who allow only 67 ppg. Prior to the 3/11 game vs. Utah, which went to OT, the Bears had held six straight opponents to less than 70 points. (Utah had 70 in regulation.) The Warriors began their conf. tournament by holding CS-Fullerton to a mere 44 points and closed it by limiting Long Beach State, the second highest scoring team in the Big West, to only 60. That 64-60 final stayed comfortably below the total and I believe this one will too. 10* blue chip |
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03-17-16 | Stony Brook v. Kentucky UNDER 143.5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Kentucky and Stony Brook to finish UNDER the total. The Wildcats saw all their conference tournament games finish above the total. However, as a larger favorite in the opening round, I expect them to flex their defensive muscles. Note that the UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that Kentucky was a neutral court favorite in the 12.5 to 15 point range and that the UNDER is also 4-2 the last six times that they played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. Needless to say, this is an extremely tough matchup for the Seawolves. They had the best defense (63.4 ppg) in the America East Conference though, so that is their strength, at least. While the Seawolves naturally don't face the likes of Kentucky regularly, they have seen the UNDER go 5-0 (in five games with an O/U line) this season, when matched up against a team that scores 77 or more points per game. I expect those stats to improve this evening. 10* |
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03-17-16 | Fresno State v. Utah -8.5 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 80 h 10 m | Show |
I’m playing on UTAH. While they’ve never met on a neutral court, the Utes are 10-4 in 14 all-time meetings with the Bulldogs. I expect them to have a considerable advantage on Thursday night. You may recall that the Utes made it all the way to the Sweet 16 last season. I believe that experience will serve them well this year. I also believe that this game being played at Denver, where they’ll receive strong fan support, will benefit the Utes. The blowout loss to Oregon notwithstanding, the Utes had a great season. The NCAA Selection Committee ranked them as the 11th best team in the country. I believe the Oregon loss will serve as a wake-up call and I look for them to pull away for a double-digit win. 10* Personal Fav |
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03-17-16 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The home team has won both meetings this season. The Raptors won by seven at Toronto. The Pacers returned the favor with a 16-point win here at Indiana. I expect homecourt to be the difference again this evening. Off Tuesday's win at Milwaukee, as a slight underdog, note that the Raptors are a money-burning 12-21-1 ATS (3-6 ATS this season) their last 34 off an "upset" win. While the Raptors are tough, the Pacers beat the Spurs and the Celtics in their last two games here. They're 23-11 ATS against winning teams and I look for them to improve on those stats tonight. 10* Personal Fav |
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03-17-16 | NC-Wilmington v. Duke -10 | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -106 | 72 h 19 m | Show |
I’m playing on DUKE. The Blue Devils didn’t fare too well against the spread down the stretch. However, this should be a favorable first round matchup for them. To their credit, the Seahawks have come a very long way in two years. Prior to Kevin Keatts taking over the program in 2014, the Seahawks had finished at 9-23. While we’ve seen #13 seeds take down #4 seeds before, the Seahawks had trouble just getting here. They beat Charleston and Northeastern, their first two opponents in the CAA Tourney, by only five points. Then, they needed OT to beat Hofstra in the finals. Making their first trip to the Big Dance in 10 years, the Seahawks are just thrilled to be here. They’ll get a reality check on Thursday afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club |
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03-16-16 | Montana v. Nevada -4 | Top | 75-79 | Push | 0 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Nevada. The Wolfpack had hoped to be going to a "bigger" tournament. However, they're likely less disappointed than the Grizzlies. Montana just played three games in three days, losing the final one of those on 3/12 against Weber State in the Big Sky title game. The Grizzlies closed as slight favorites in that one (I played against them there too) but lost by three. To be that close to the Big Dance, only to not get there, has to sting. This is the first tournament of any kind for the Wolfpack in (four) years. So, while disappointed, they're also excited. Nevada senior Tyron Criswell noted: "Coach asked us, 'Guys, do you want to play in this thing?, ‘We can win it.' We all agreed that we wanted to keep playing." Criswell went on to say: "I definitely want to go out a winner." The Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) off a conference loss this season and they outscored teams by more than 10 points per game on this floor. I like their chances here. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-16-16 | Tulsa +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tulsa. While these teams have a number of similar stats, one is far more experienced than the other. The Wolverines certanly had an exciting journey here, a pair of extremely close wins in the Big Ten Tourney getting them here. This is still a relatively young Michigan team though; they've got two seniors and both are hurt. On the other hand, Tulsa is among the most experienced teams in the country. As guard James Woodard commented: "We've got to use our veteran-laden team as an advantage in this tournament because we have been around a long time. We've seen every situation." The Golden Hurricane start four seniors and a junior and they've got another three seniors on the bench, all of whom are regular contributors. I expect that experience to ultimately be the difference and am grabbing the points. 10* Main Event |
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03-16-16 | Magic v. Hornets -9.5 | Top | 99-107 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte. I successfully played against the Hornets in their last game. Now, I'm reversing direction and coming back with a play on them. Even though they weren't at their best against the Mavs on Monday, the Hornets have been playing very well in recent weeks. Prior to the Dallas loss, they'd won seven straight, covering six of those. Still, they know they can't waste that winning streak by squandering winnable games like this one. They've got the schedule in their favor as Orlando is off a win against Denver last night. The last time that the Magic played the second of b2b games, they lost by 37 points. The Hornets have more talent, more to play for and the schedule/venue in their favor; I see another blowout shaping up here. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-15-16 | Kings v. Lakers +3 | Top | 106-98 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA Lakers. I lost with the Lakers in their last game but I'm more than willing to give them another shot tonight. The Kings have Cousins back but they're still a mess right now. Cousins isn't happy and while he'll surely put up big stats, that doesn't translate into "W's." The Kings have dropped nine of 10 and 17 of 22. Any thoughts of the playoffs are now history. They've lost five straight and failed to cover the last four of those. Yet, they're the ones laying points on the road tonight. I guess that says something about the Lakers, who are indeed enduring a dismal season. Kobe and co. don't want to go down without at least a couple more wins though and they know opportunities like this one will be few and far between. The fact that they're playing with "triple revenge," looking to avoid the season sweep should provide some further motivation. With the Kings at 1-8 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points, I'm sticking with LA. 10* best bet |
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03-15-16 | Celtics v. Pacers -2 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. Playing at Atlanta, the second of b2b road games, the Pacers didn't show up for their last game, a 29-point loss. I'm not going to over-react to one bad game though, as they'd been playing really well before that. They beat the Spurs in their most recent game here at Indiana and are still 3-1 SU/ATS their last four overall. Off the bad loss, a little lower than Boston in the standings AND with a pair of difficult games on deck (Toronto and OKC) the Pacers arguably need this game more than the Celtics. While the Celts are 16-16 on the road, the Pacers are 19-11 at home. They're 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14 as home favorites of three or fewer points and I expect them to bounce back with an important win. 10* violator |
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03-14-16 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 219.5 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota and Phoenix to finish OVER the total. Neither of these teams plays much defense at the best of times. The Suns allow 108 ppg. The T-Wolves allow 105.5 ppg. Lately, both have been even worse defensively. Over their past five games, each of these teams is allowing an average of greater than 110 ppg. Both offenses have shown signs of life. The Suns put up 116 points against Golden State last time out. The Wolves have faced some tough defenses the last few games but in their last game against a team in the class of the Suns (Brooklyn on 3/5) they shot the lights out, en route to putting up 132 points. Now, matched up against each other, we should be able to expect a shootout. While the O/U line is high, note that the Suns have seen the OVER go 12-6 when the total was listed at 210 or greater and the Wolves have seen the OVER go 10-5-1 with an O/U line of 210 or higher. More of the same here. 10* blue chip |
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03-14-16 | Mavs +7 v. Hornets | Top | 107-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. While the Hornets come in as the much hotter team, I believe this is a generous line on the visitors. With even more difficult games ahead, the Mavs, who are battling for the final playoff spot in the West, badly need this one. They're 2-0 ATS as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. Charlotte, on the other hand, is 2-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. While the Hornets won at Dallas earlier this season, the Mavs won here last season. While Charlotte has had some big wins of late, the Mavs have been playing very close (OT three straight) road games. I won't be surprised if this one also goes down to the wire and am grabbing the points. 10* best bet |
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03-13-16 | Knicks v. Lakers +2 | Top | 90-87 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. Typically, my "Personal Favorite" selections are on teams which are favored. However, I'll occasionally deviate from that, when I believe that the "underdog" will win "outright." That's how I see tonight's game playing out. The Lakers were no match for the Cavs last game. However, they'd won two in a row before that, knocking off the Magic and Warriors. They're 10-6 ATS in the second half of the season, compared to New York's 7-10 ATS mark. Note that the Lakers are expected to get Lou Williams back today, which should provide a considerable boost. While he often comes off the bench, Williams ranks third on the team in scoring. The Knicks are 0-2 ATS as road favorites of three or fewer points. They lost both games (at Denver and at Milwaukee) by double-digits. The Lakers, on the other hand, are 3-0 SU/ATS in 2016 as home dogs of three or fewer points, beating Brooklyn, New Orleans and Phoenix. While I won't consider it an "upset," I see another win for the Lakers here. 10* Personal Fav |
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03-13-16 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 206 | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee and Brooklyn Over the total. The Bucks saw yesterday's game vs. New Orleans stay below the total. They've been a profitable "over" team when playing the second of b2b games though and they almost always allow their opponent to hit triple-digits in scoring when they're in that situation. The last five times that they played the second of b2b games, they allowed 100, 109, 107, 107 and 116, an average of 108. This is a game the Bucks believe they can (and need to) win though. So, even if they allow triple-digits, as per usual, they're also going to need to score in triple-digits. That should certainly be possible as Brooklyn allows more than 104 per game and has allowed an average of 111.6 its last five. While the Bucks have seen the Over go 1-0 as road favs of three or fewer points, the Nets have seen the OVER go 4-1 as home dogs of three or less. I'm not expecting an abundance of defense here. 10* blue chip |
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03-13-16 | Cavs v. Clippers +2 | Top | 114-90 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. With all due respect to Lebron, I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. Sure, the Cavs handled the Clippers at Cleveland. However, the Clippers' home record (22-11) is better than Cleveland's (19-12) mark on the road. Off their big win against the Lakers, note that the Cavs are only 11-14 ATS off a double-digit win. While many don't concern themselves with the next day, I believe its worth mentioning that the Cavs play tomorrow while the Clippers do not. While the Cavs are 2-3 ATS as road favorites of three or fewer points, the Clippers are 3-1 ATS as home dogs of three or less. They're also 15-7 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon, serving notice that they're still one of the teams to beat in the West. 10* Main Event |
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03-13-16 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Arkansas-Little Rock -4.5 | Top | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arkansas Little Rock. The second-seeded Warhawks fell behind 12-0 out of the gate yesterday but then "woke up" and took care of business against UT-Arlington. That was a team that they beat both times in the regular season and that they felt confident against. This afternoon's opponent is on an entirely different level though. The Trojans have an impressive 28 wins but they know that doesn't ensure them of an NCAA berth. Rather than sweat it out later, they know they need to take care of business today. They've got more depth than the Warhawks and a better defense. As well as the Warhawks have played defensively of late, the Trojans are still better. They allow a mere 59.9 ppg and they're nearly every bit as good away from home, allowing just 60.7 ppg on 38.6% shooting. I believe that'll be the difference today. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-12-16 | Montana v. Weber State -113 | Top | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Weber State. The Grizzlies may be a popular choice in this one but I look for the Wildcats to be the team that cuts down the nets. Both teams allow 67 ppg. However, Weber State scores 77.2 ppg while Montana averages 72.9. Playing at home Weber State won this season's lone meeting, 60-54. You may recall that game got pretty heated. In fact, a scuffle broke out afterwards when the teams were shaking hands. Note that Weber State's Joel Bolomboy didn't even play in that one, despite being honored for Senior Day. Off a 19 rebound (and 17 points) effort yesterday, he's back in a big way now. It was on this very day (3/12/15) last year that Montana knocked Weber State out of the Big Sky Tourney last year, a 76-73 OT win. That was a top-seeded Montana team against a Weber State team which won only 13 games at the time. A win today will give this year's team twice that many. I expect them to get it. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-12-16 | Pelicans v. Bucks -5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I had a big play (10* Personal Favorite) on New Orleans when these teams faced each other back on 1/23. With the schedule and venue in their favor, the Pelicans would win by 17 points. Here's an excerpt from that game below: "...Situation favors the home team here. Off back to back double-digit wins and winners of four of their last five, the Pelicans are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. Prior to yesterday, one could have said the exact same thing about the Bucks. The Bucks were off b2b double-digit wins and had won four of their previous five. Milwaukee lost a hard-fought game at Houston last night though. The fact that they battled all the way back, only to still fall short, makes it hard to take. Off that close loss and now playing the final leg of a 4-game road trip, I feel that they may not have enough left to contend with Davis and co. A look ahead to the return trip home - and the expected return of coach Jason Kidd - may also be in order. Davis, who has 67 points in his last two games, had this to say of the team's recent play: "We're just playing desperate. That's it. That's how we've got to play from here on out. Like coach said, in a couple weeks we're going to see where our season goes - whether it's just playing it out or every game matters. New Orleans has owned the Bucks here. I expect more "desperate" play, leading to another win and cover ... " |
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03-12-16 | Connecticut v. Temple +3.5 | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on Temple. I won with the Owls yesterday and I really like them again this afternoon. While Temple had a nice tune-up game for this one (against USF) the Huskies left everything on the floor - and then some - to beat Cincy. Indeed, they needed four OT periods to dispatch of the pesky Bearcats. Give the Huskies credit for pulling off the win (Cincy's Mick Cronin said the game was "taken" from his team by the refs) but that marathon figures to take a toll on them today. The Owls won both regular season meetings and each game was very close. The two were decided by an average of just 3.5 points, each by five or less. While its true that it can sometimes be tough to beat a team three times in the same season, its also true that winning builds confidence. The Owls, who also won at Cincy this season, had the better road record than the Huskies this year. They know they can beat this team and they'll come in with a lot of confidence. I expect them to be "fresher" and I'll gladly take any points that they're willing to give me. 10* best bet |
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03-12-16 | St. Joe's v. Dayton -1.5 | Top | 82-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAYTON. I won with the Flyers yesterday and I really like their chances again this afternoon. While the Hawks won the lone regular season meeting, that was at St. Joseph's. (Today's game is at Barclays Center) The Hawks had a tougher matchup yesterday and it showed. While Dayton cruised to a double-digit victory over Richmond, St Joe's needed a furious second half rally to come back and beat George Washington. Give the Hawks credit for completing that comeback, as that win likely punched their ticket to the Big Dance. However, they had to really leave it all on the floor and may be feeling the effects a little more than the Flyers today. While I certainly respect the Hawks, I believe the Flyers are a little stingier on the defensive side of the ball. While the Flyers gave up 54 points yesterday, the Hawks gave up 80. They've now allowed 78 or more in three straight games. I look for that to be the difference as revenge-minded Dayton scratches and claws its way to the important win. 10* Breakfast Club |
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03-12-16 | LSU +7 v. Texas A&M | Top | 38-71 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on LSU. While I won with the Aggies yesterday, I believe that they're laying too large a number here and that the Tigers are a more dangerous team than many realize. Many of you know that I also played on LSU yesterday. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "...LSU is led by SEC Freshman Of The Year, Ben Simmons. The Tigers' star may in fact be the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft. If he's not, he'll be close. On pace to become the first player ever to finish in the SEC’s top five for scoring (19.6 ppg), rebounds (11.9) and assists (5.0) in the same season, Simmons does it all. Simmons and co. are better than they showed down the stretch and they'll be looking to prove it here..." Of course, the Aggies know all about Simmons, as he had a near triple-double when the Tigers beat the Aggies at LSU. (The Aggies won the game at Texas A&M.) While both teams obviously want to win, this game is arguably much bigger for LSU. The Aggies know they're going dancing. However, if the Tigers don't win this tournament, or at least today's game, Simmons will head off to the NBA without ever having a chance to play in the NCAA Tournament. He didn't play much yesterday but I expect the Tigers' star to lead his team to AT LEAST a cover this afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club (Shocker) |
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03-11-16 | Memphis v. Tulsa -2.5 | Top | 89-67 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULSA. The Tigers are off a huge win in their last game. Clearly, they're still an athletic team which is very capable. That said, they've been inconsistent. In fact, they've won just five of their last 14 games and they haven't won two in a row since way back in January. They're 1-6 SU/ATS off a conference win. With four wins in their final five games, the Golden Hurricane have been far more consistent down the stretch. True, the lone loss came at Memphis. They're 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. While they're 17-14 record may seem disappointing, the Tigers knew this was supposed to be a rebuiding year. Not so for the Golden Hurricane. They came in to the season with high expectations and they still believe they've got what it takes to make it to the Big Dance. They know that a big run in this tournament is mandatory to make that a reality. While the Tigers have struggled off a conference win, Tulsa has thrived in that situation. Indeed, the Golden Hurricane are 29-13 ATS (31-11 SU) the past few seasons, off an AAC win. Note that although this game is being played at the Amway Center (Orlando) the line is essentially the same as it was when Tulsa played at Memphis, the Golden Hurricane laying a small number. I believe thats providing us with excellent value and I'm planning on taking advantage. 10* AAC Tourney GOY. |
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03-11-16 | Nets v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 89-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76ers haven't won a game in more than a month. They've continued to fight hard (on most nights) though and tonight's game should provide them with an opportunity to finally stop the bleeding. Knowing that they'll play again at Brooklyn in a few days should provide some added incentive to take care of business and protect their homecourt tonight. The teams have split both meetings this season, the home team winning each time. The 76ers won by five here last month, as 1-point favorites. Tonight, however, we're even getting a few extra points to work with. Catching the Nets playing the final leg of a 9-game road trip, I believe thats providing us with excellent value. 10* best bet |
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03-11-16 | Tennessee v. LSU -4.5 | Top | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on LSU. Great win for the Vols yesterday. In addition to being a bitter rival, Vanderbilt was a talented team. They'll be up against an even better one here though. LSU is led by SEC Freshman Of The Year, Ben Simmons. The Tigers' star may in fact be the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft. If he's not, he'll be close. On pace to become the first player ever to finish in the SEC’s top five for scoring (19.6 ppg), rebounds (11.9) and assists (5.0) in the same season, Simmons does it all. Simmons and co. are better than they showed down the stretch and they'll be looking to prove it here. The Vols won the lone reg. season meeting. However, that was at Tennessee. Off yesterday's emotional victory, one which saw them squander a 15-point lead before rallying to hang on, and now playing their third game in three days, I expect the Vols to come back down to earth. The well-rested Tigers are 12-8 ATS (13-7 SU) the last 20 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. I say its payback time. 10* SEC Tourney GOY |
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03-11-16 | South Florida v. Temple -11 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEMPLE. 10* While the Bulls played well yesterday, they're stepping up in a class here. The Owls are a well-coached team. Fran Dunphy, AAC men's basketball coach of the year for the second straight year, will have his team ready. The Owls know they weren't expected to finish as highly in the conference as they did. Dunphy will make sure that they're aware its all for nothing if they don't take of business here. Even with yesterday's win, the Bulls are just 1-4 SU/ATS their last five tournament games. This is the first time that they will have played back-to-back games all season and I expect it to catch up with them. 10* ESPN Breakfast Club |
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03-10-16 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 152.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boise State and Colorado State to finish UNDER the total. Last month's meeting at CSU was a wild and controversial (2 OT) affair, finishing with a whopping 190 points. However, that was actually kind of a bad beat for 'under' bettors, as the teams had 148 after regulation, a score which would have fallen comfortably below the total. The Rams have seen the UNDER go 3-1 the past couple of seasons in conference tournament games. During the same stretch, the Broncos have seen the UNDER go 10-2 in all tournament games with a total. With the UNDER also at 2-0 this season when the Broncos attempted to avenge an earlier road loss, I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* Blue Chip |
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03-10-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. A few recent ATS losses by the Raptors, combined with a hot streak by the Hawks, have helped to keep this line lower than it could have been. I believe that the low line is providing us with excellent value. Yes, the Hawks are looking to avenge an earlier loss at Atlanta. However, they've won just four of their last nine in that situation, so that isn't generally a huge motivator for them. Also, that game was more than three months ago, so any "revenge factor" figures to have little meaning. More important, to me at least, is the fact that the Hawks are playing the final leg of a road trip that started out in California. They haven't been home yet this month and could easily get caught looking ahead to the return home. While the Hawks are 17-16 on the road, the Raptors are 24-7 here at home. They've won three of the last four meetings with the Hawks here at Toronto, all three wins coming by seven or more points, two of them by double-digits. Toronto coach Casey hasn't been happy with his team's play lately and I expect him to have them ready to go tonight. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-10-16 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia -10 | Top | 52-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. This one sets up well for the Cavaliers, one of the best defensive teams in the country. Virginia is playing very well right now. The Cavs are off a 22-point destruction of Louisville and are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three. Give the Jackets credit. They played well in their regular season finale, earning a win against Pittsburgh. Then, yesterday, they knocked off Clemson. They needed OT to do so though and that game figures to take a toll on them as they step up in class against the Cavs. Virginia won't get caught looking ahead either as the Jackets actually upset them back on 1/9. The Cavs know that if they won that game that they would have won their third straight ACC title. Payback time. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-10-16 | Arkansas v. Florida -2.5 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. While not alot separates these teams in the stats department, I believe the Gators' defensive edge will put them over the top. Both these teams were 9-9 in conference play, the Gators having the slightly superior overall record. Florida won the lone regular season meeting by four points. Its true that John Egbunu will be limited for the Gators, as his hand will be in a brace. The Gators are a very balanced team though and if they need to go with a smaller lineup, I believe they'll still cause trouble for Arkansas. While the Razorbacks allow oppposing teams to score 76 ppg (45.1%) on the road, the Gators allow 69.5 ppg (41.8%) on the road. The Gators won twice as many road/neutral games as did Arkansas, including a neutral site win over Oklahoma State. The Hogs were 0-3 SU/ATS when playing on a neutral court. Those losses weren't exactly against the likes of UNC either as they came against G-Tech, Stanford and Mercer. Both teams will be desperate but I like the Gators to get it done. 10* Breakfast Club (Part 2) *Part 1 tips @ 12 ET* |
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03-10-16 | Richmond -5 v. Fordham | Top | 70-55 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Richmond. The Rams have the better record and are the higher seed. However, I feel that Richmond is favored for good reason. While they didn't have a great regular season, I believe the Spiders have themselves a great matchup on Thursday afternoon. Though they're known for their defense, the Rams still allowed 72.5 ppg on the road, opposing teams shooging 47.3% against them. The Spiders can score anywhere they play. They averaged 77.7 ppg overall and 76.4 (47.7%) when playing away from home. The Rams, on the other hand, managed a mere 64.5 ppg (41.1%) on the road. The Spiders have long dominated this matchup and I look for their superior offense to ultimately be too much for the Rams to handle. 10* breakfast club |
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03-09-16 | Heat v. Bucks +3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully played against both these teams in their last game. I took the points with the 76ers when they covered against the Heat on 3/6 and I laid the points with the Bulls when they beat the Bucks the next night. Tonight, I feel the situation favors the Bucks. While the road team has actually won both meetings this season, both teams are still much better at home. That's particularly true of the Bucks; they're just 8-26 on the road but 18-12 here at home. Note that home record is better than Miami's 16-14 mark on the road. Prior to the 1/29 loss, the Bucks had beaten the Heat twice in a row on this floor. In fact, they're 5-1 ATS the last six meetings, all five of those covers resulting in SU victories. I expect them to be at their best again tonight. 10* Best Bet. |
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03-09-16 | Pelicans v. Hornets -8.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Although they won by only five last time out, the Hornets are playing really well these days. They've won four straight and are 12-3 since the end of January. That includes an 8-3 ATS mark their last 11. A date with the Pelicans should allow them to add to those numbers. The Pelicans eked out a 2-point win for in this season's earlier meeting. That was at New Orleans though and both teams are much better on their home floor. The Pelicans are above .500 at home but just 7-23 on the road. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 12-19 on the road but 22-9 here at Charlotte. While they managed to rally for a win, as slight underdogs against the Kings last time out, the Pelicans are far from healthy these days. They're also just 3-9 ATS off an "upset" win. The Hornets are 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS their last 17 against teams which allow 99 or more points per game. I expect a blowout. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-09-16 | DePaul v. Georgetown -8.5 | Top | 53-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. The Hoyas may have had some trouble against good teams this season but they have no trouble beating up on weak teams like this one. Now 12-2 their last 14 against teams with a losing record, the Hoyas won all seven games against losing teams this season, going 3-0 SU/ATS the last three of those. Most recently, they destroyed St John's by a score of 92-67. The Hoyas won both regular season meetings against Depaul by double-digits. While Depaul is 1-11 ATS its last 12 neutral court games, the Hoyas covered the spread in both their neutral site games this season. The Hoyas need to "get healthy" with a big blowout win and a first round date with Depaul should be just what the doctor ordered. 10* personal favorite |
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03-09-16 | Stanford +2.5 v. Washington | Top | 68-91 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Stanford. I successfully played against the Cardinal in their last game. That was a road game against an angry Arizona team though while this is a neutral site game against Washington, a team Stanford matches up much better against. Its offense vs. defense in this one. Washington scores more than 80 ppg but also allows more than 80. Stanford scores less than 70 but also allows less than 70. That said, I believe the team that more effectively dictates the tempo will likely emerge victorious - and I believe that team will be Stanford. This Cardinal team, which played one of the toughest schedules in the country, isn't getting much respect. However, I'll note that they are very balanced, which should serve them well here. In fact, its the first Stanford team with five players averaging in double-digits in scoring since 1948-49. While the Huskies were 1-3 ATS in neutral court games this season, the Cardinal were 2-0 ATS, beating Arkansas last time on a neutral court. The Cardinal won a close one against the Huskies in last year's tournament and a similar result this afternoon won't surprise. 10* best bet |
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03-08-16 | Northern Arizona v. Eastern Washington -12 | Top | 52-74 | Win | 100 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on EASTERN WASHINGTON. You wouldn't normally find a team, which was 0-4 SU/ATS its last four games, laying double-digits. However, this is a very favorable matchup for the Eagles. I believe that they'll capitalize on that favorable matchup and use it to build their momentum and regain their confidence with a blowout win. Eastern Washington coach Jim Hayford noted: "I'm the most confident coach in the world on a four-game losing streak. As I look back on these last couple of weeks, I like that my team is hungry for what lies ahead." The Eagles players share their coach's optimism. When asked about the 4-game skid, forward Venky Jois responded: "Everyone here has a 100 percent confidence that we can go four games in a row the other way." The Lumberjacks have lost 13 of their last 15 and have just three wins since the end of November. They just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Eagles. The Eagles score more than 82 ppg overall and more than 84 in conference play. The Lumberjacks averaged less than 70 points overall and just 63.6 away from home. Lumberjacks head coach Jack Murphy commented: "They really got up and down on the court on us. They did a great job offensively and on the offensive glass ... " The Eagles won the two regular season meetings by 34 combined points. I'm expecting another one-sided affair. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-08-16 | Wizards +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 109-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I believe that this will be a tough spot for the Blazers. They wore down at the end of their road trip, losing their final three. This is their first game back home from that long trip and they've got a game against Golden State up next. The Wizards, who lost by one vs. Indiana last time out, are just as good on the road as they are at home. They're also 8-2 ATS off an "upset" loss. Playing with revenge from a MLK Day loss at Washington, I look for them to bounce back and earn AT LEAST the cover again tonight. 10* Best Bet |
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03-08-16 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's +2 | Top | 85-75 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. Mary's. Both these teams are very good on both sides of the ball and they're certainly very familiar with each other. It should be a great battle. The Gaels won both regular season meetings and they had the better overall record this season. Yet, its Gonzaga which checks in as a small favorite. While I certainly respect the Bulldogs, I believe thats providing us with value on the Gaels. St. Mary's has the best shoooting percentage in the country. Combine that with a Top 5 defensive ranking in terms of points allowed and they're going to be tough to beat. I look for the Gaels to dictate the tempo and ultimately find a way to win. 10* Main Event. |
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03-08-16 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 206.5 | Top | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Spurs and T-Wolves OVER the total. Both these teams saw yesterday's game stay below the total. This one figures to be higher-scoring. Even with yesterday's game, whch still produced 211 points, staying below the total, the OVER remains a profitable 11-3-1 the T-Wolves last 15 games. With the Spurs on an 'under' streak, we're getting the lowest O/U line for a Minnesota game so far this month, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. The last time that the T-Wolves played the second of b2b games, their game produced 250 combined points. The previous time that they were in a b2b situation, their game produced 229 points. Including those results, the OVER is 8-2-2 the last dozen times that the played in a b2b situation. More of the same Tuesday. 10* Blue Chip |
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03-08-16 | Northern Colorado v. Portland State -4 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland State. While the overall records are similar, the Vikings are arguably playing better basketball right now. They've won four of their last five, including a win at Northern Colorado, and come in with some confidence. The Bears also come in off a win in their last game, an upset of Montana. Keep in mind that they'd lost seven of eight before that though. Also, lets remember that the Vikings average more ppg than do the Bears AND that they also allow less. With this projected to be a high-scoring game, the tempo should favor Portland State. The Vikings are 2-0 SU/ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 160s, the Bears are 2-5 ATS. I expect the Vikings to pull away and I'll lay the small number. 10* Big Sky Tourney GOY |
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03-08-16 | Wake Forest v. NC State -4.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on NC State. Neither of these teams is (likely) going to win this tournament. To do so, they'd have to win five games and beat some of the top teams in the country, starting with Duke on Wednesday. Both will be looking to win this one but I believe NC State will have the advantage. I played against the Wolfpack in their last game. That was on the road, against a hungry Notre Dame team though. Wake Forest represents a much easier opponent, one I believe they can and will handle. Since they won a home game vs. the Wolfpack back on 1/10, the Deacons have gone an awful 1-14. One of those losses came at NC State, a 10-point win by the Wolfpack. Anthony Cat Barber had a career high 38 points in that game. I expect him to lead the Wolfpack to another win and cover on Tuesday afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club |
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03-07-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -7 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls have been a "streaky" team. They lost five straight in early-mid Feb. That skid was followed by three straight wins. Next, came four more losses. Off a win in their last game and with the schedule in their favor, I look for the Bulls to continue "streaking" in the positive direction again this evening. Even with the recent losses, the Bulls are still in the thick of the playoff race. Currently back in the eighth and final spot and with tougher games against the likes of San Antonio, Miami and Toronto coming up, the Bulls know they need to take care of business tonight. Butler came back last game and provided an immediate lift. He's their best offensive weapon and was badly missed. While the Bulls had yesteday off, the Bucks are off a hard fought loss vs OKC. The Bulls have dominated the Bucks here in recent seasons and that continued in the earlier game here this year, an 11-point win for Chicago. More of the same here. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-07-16 | Spurs v. Pacers +6.5 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. While they sometimes struggle to dominate lesser competition, the Pacers are typically at their best against the league's better teams. They're currently 20-10 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. After closing out their road trip with a win at Washington, when listed as small underdogs, I expect them to "come to play" again tonight. Note that Indiana is 5-1 ATS its last six off an "upset" victory. Also, note that the Pacers lost by just two against the Spurs here last season. While the Spurs, who are off back-to-back ATS losses, play tomorrow, the Pacers have the next few days off. They can go all out here. They don't often find themselves getting this many points at home, but the Pacers are 13-5 ATS their last 18 as home dogs in the 6.5 to 9 range over the years. I expect them to improve on those stats with at least another cover tonight. 10* best bet |
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03-07-16 | Grizzlies v. Cavs UNDER 204 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. While they had trouble with the Suns (again) yesterday, perhaps looking ahead to this game, the Grizzlies have mostly been playing good defense lately. They've held their last four opponents, not named Phoenix, to double-digits in scoring. Meanwhile, the Cavs have playing stingy defense for weeks. They've held six of their last nine opponents to double-digits. Not surprisingly, six of those nine games stayed below the total. This season's earlier meeting, at Memphis, produced only 182 combined points, the third straight meeting between these teams which finished at 200 or less. Note that the UNDER is also 5-1 the last six times that the Grizzlies played here at Cleveland, all six of those games finishing at 196 or less. The Grizzlies have seen the UNDER go 11-3 the last 14 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range and I expect those stats to improve tonight. 10* main event |
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03-07-16 | Hartford v. Stony Brook -18 | Top | 64-80 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on STONY BROOK. Two days ago, the Stony Brook women's team beat the Hartford women's team by 18 points in the opening round of the America East Women's tournament. Now, the men meet (in the semis) and I expect an even wider margin of victory for the Seawolves. The Hawks did the Seawolves a favor by beating Albany in the opening round. Don't expect Stony Brook to treat them "nicely" as a result though. Since 2008-2009, the Seawolves have beaten the Hawks 16 of 17 times. Yes, the Hawks are "pressure free." Hartford coach Gallagher noted: "We’re going to be the loosest group in America playing Monday night." Junior Pancake Thomas added: "Really no one expects us to be here, so like we’re not really supposed to be here. So we’re loose." Being "loose" will only take you so far though. Eventually, superior talent wins out. The Seawolves won this season's regular season meeting by a combined 47 points, an average of 23.5 per game. I expect them to take care of business in blowout fashion once again. 10* B.M. |
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03-06-16 | Blazers v. Pistons +1 | Top | 103-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. We're getting some extra line value with the Pistons due to the fact that they played yesterday. The back-to-back spot shouldn't scare us off though. In fact, the Pistons have arguably played some of their best ball this season, when playing their second game in two days. The last time that they were in a b2b spot, they dropped 114 points on the Raptors (no small feat) beating them by double-digits. Their previous b2b spot saw them win outright at Cleveland. Before that? A win and covers vs. the Knicks. Including those results, they're 4-0 ATS since late January, when playing the second of b2b games. The Blazers, who are playing the final leg of a 6-game road trip, have already had a successful road trip. Off a tough 2-point loss at Toronto on Friday, they could easily get caught looking ahead to the return trip home. The Pistons, on the other hand, can't afford to look past anything. They're currently in 9th in the East and badly need wins. After yesterday's game, Stan Van Gundy noted: "We should all be disappointed, it was ridiculous. We were just terrible. We didn't bring any energy to the game. We didn't play well at either end. It was an embarrassing performance." I expect the Pistons to respond with a much better effort today, en route to an important victory. 10* Main Event |
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03-06-16 | Memphis -4 v. East Carolina | Top | 83-53 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis. The Tigers may be locked into the #6 seed in next week's AAC Tournament but that doesn't mean that this isn't a big game for them. Really big, in fact. They could really use a road win and some momentum going into the tourney. Additionally, they've got payback on their minds after the Pirates shocked them at Memphis earlier this season. The Tigers were heavy favorites (-16.5) for that 1/24 game, one they fully expected to win. Needless to say, they haven't forgotten. Coach Pastner even admitted: "We owe East Carolina." The Tigers score 76.6 ppg and that number actually rises to 78.2 on the road. East Carolina averages only 68.9 ppg, just 66 in conference play. The Tigers are arguably better defensively too; they limit opposing teams to a 40% shooting mark, opposing teams shoot 44.5% against the Pirates. Note that ECU is also the worst rebounding team in the AAC. Payback time. 10* AAC G.O.Y. |
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03-06-16 | SMU v. Cincinnati -2 | Top | 54-61 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a big game for both teams. Due to sanctions by the NCAA, which restrict them from the postseason, the Mustangs will be playing their final game of the season, the final game ever for SMU for Nic Moore. Needless to say, Moore and co. would like to go out winners. That said, the game is arguably bigger for the Bearcats, who are on the bubble right now. Though they have 21 wins, the Bearcats are 0-3 against ranked teams. A victory here would be huge. While the Mustangs are certainly tough, the Bearcats very nearly beat them at SMU. A late rally by Moore and the Mustangs led to a 59-57 SMU win. I like the revenge-minded Bearcats to rise to the occasion, their best effort leading to an important win and cover. *10 Breakfast Club |
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03-05-16 | Hawks v. Clippers OVER 201 | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on the OVER. This O/U line has come down from its opener and I believe its now a little too low. Both these teams can and do score. It doesn't matter about venue much either. The Hawks score 101.4 ppg on the road and 102.3 ppg on the road. The Clippers score 104.9 ppg overall and 105.5 here at LA. This season's earlier meeting (at Atlanta) had an O/U line of 206.5. Last season's game here at LA had an O/U line of 210.5, the game at Atlanta with one at 209. (Those games finished with 205 and 211 points, respectively.) While the Clippers have seen the Over go 3-2 as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, the Hawks have seen the Over go 3-1 as road underdogs in the same range. Look for those stats to improve tonight. 10* Blue Chip |
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03-05-16 | California v. Arizona State +4 | Top | 68-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. 10* While they fought hard and still covered the spread, the Bears finally had their winning streak come to an end last game. Off that hard-fought loss and facing what will be a determined ASU team, I expect the Bears to stumble again. The Bears are just 1-4 ATS their last five off a Pac-12 loss, an ugly 6-18-1 ATS their last 25. While the Bears are off a potentially deflating loss, the Sun Devils come in off a potentially momentum-building win over Stanford. They beat the Bears here again last season, after blowing them out the year before. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Berkeley, I expect at least a cover tonight. 10* best bet |
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03-05-16 | Stanford v. Arizona -14 | Top | 62-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats had their hands full with Cal last game but this one figures to be considerably easier. Stanford has lost six of its last seven road games. Every loss came by a minimum of nine points and the lone win came against Washington State, the worst team in the conference. This line may appear high but the Wildcats thrive as big favorites. They're 27-13 ATS (40-0 SU!) the last 40 times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points. That includes a 9-4 ATS mark when the line ranged from 12.5 to 15 here. They beat the Cardinal by 22 here last season and I expect a similar result this afternoon. 10* B.M. |
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03-04-16 | Delaware v. College of Charleston -8.5 | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charleston. When these teams met a couple of weeks ago, the Blue Hens were 1-16 in their previous 17 games while the Cougars had won six of eight. Playing on their homecourt, the Hens shocked their guests though, a loss that send the Cougars on a dowward spiral to close out their season. After that game, there was a bit of trash talk going on. Delaware's Marvin King-Davis commented: "It was no upset. We came into the game knowing we could win." Those type of comments won't sit well with the Cougars who figure to come in with a chip on their shoulder, looking to get back on track and prove that was an aberration. The bottom line here is that one team plays defense and the other does not. The Cougars allowed 59.2 ppg in conference play this season, the Hens allowed 78.4. Payback time. 10* Colonial Athletic GOY |
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03-04-16 | Wolves v. Bucks OVER 213.5 | Top | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing in Milwaukee and Minnesota to finish OVER the total. This may not be quite the higest O/U line on the Friday board but I won't be surprised when it turns out to be the highest scoring game. The Bucks like to play at a fast pace. They scored "only" 99 points last time out (after putting up 128 in the previous game) and will be happy to welcome defensively-challenged Minnesota. While the Bucks give up 103.3 points per game, the T-Wolves give up a whopping 105.8, allowing opponents to connect on 46.8% of their shots. The T-Wolves have been even worse than that lately too. Over their last five games, they're allowing an avg of 115.6 ppg, opposing teams shooting better than 49% against them. The T-Wolves have seen the OVER go 20-8-2 on the road and 4-1-1 in road games when the O/U line was listed at 210 or more. I'm not expecting much defense tonight either. 10* blue chip |
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03-04-16 | Southern Illinois +6 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 60-66 | Push | 0 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
writeup to follow shortly |
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03-03-16 | California v. Arizona -6 | Top | 61-64 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona. The Bears won by a point when these teams met at Berkeley. I expect a highly motivated Wildcats team to avenge that loss in a big way here. Recent results have worked in our favor to keep this line a little lower than it would have been, had these teams met a few weeks back. Cal has won seven straight while Arizona has lost b2b games. Those b2b losses don't worry me though. Rather, I expect them to have this team at its best. In this season's two previous instances when the Cats had lost b2b games, they responded by beating Washington and Oregon State by 49 combined points, easily covering the number in both games. In the game at Berkeley, the Bears got an unlikely performance from Jordan Matthews, one which very probably won't be duplicated. Coming off the bench, Matthews was 6 for 12 from beyond the arc, scoring a career high 28. (He normally averages less than half that.) Note that the Wildcats are 8-3 ATS (11-0 SU!) their last 11 when avenging an earlier road loss. The Bears are still 3-8 on the road, those wins coming at Washington, Washington State and Wyoming. Needless to say, Tucson will be a much tougher venue. The Cats have won 53 of their last 54 here and they haven't lost three straight since 2010. Payback time. 10* March. Pac 12 GOM |
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03-03-16 | Spurs v. Pelicans OVER 207 | Top | 94-86 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on San Antonio and New Orleans to finish OVER the total. Both teams saw their game last night stay below the total. I expect a high-scoring affair here though. While New Orleans road games have been an entirely different story, games here have been sailing over the total all season long. The OVER is 22-7 here, games averaging greater than 213 combined points. The Spurs remain a stingy defensive team but they do give up a few more points on the road than they do at San Antonio. On offense, they can put up big numbers anywhere in the league. Off a few lower-scoring games, I expect them to break out against their defensively challenged hosts, the Pelicans providing enough to make up the difference. 10* Main Event |
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03-03-16 | Suns +14 v. Heat | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. Admittedly, the Suns have some issues these days. That said, I still feel this line is too high. The Heat, who are without Bosh these days, haven't been asked to lay a number this big all season. They were -12.5 point favorites for a November game here against the 76'ers, who were 0-13 at the time. Miami would win by just five points. With that result, they're 3-5 ATS the last eight times they were favored by more than a dozen points. Off a record setting performance and with a road game on deck tomorrow night, it may be easy to overlook the lowly Suns, a non-conference opponent who they already beat at Phoenix. While they lost big last time out, I follow every team very closely and have noticed that the Suns have been very competitive off a blowout loss, since the coaching change. (They haven't had b2b losses of greater than 13 points since late January.) Only four of their last 12 games have resulted in losses of more than 13 points and only two of those have been by more than 16. I feel the number is a little inflated and I look for this one to be closer than most will be expecting once again. 10* best bet |
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03-02-16 | Thunder v. Clippers -1 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. I really like how this one sets up for the Clippers. First of all, instead of laying a big number like they normally would be here, they only need to win. They're home record (20-10) isn't what they'd like it to be, but its still better than OKC's (17-10) mark on the road. You may recall that these teams played an exciting game here just before Christmas. The Thunder won that game by a 100-99 score. That's noteworthy as Paul and co. are 13-7 ATS their last 20 in the revenge role, 7-2 ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss. With such a high O/U number, its also worth mentioning that even with Monday's win vs. the Kings, the Thunder are still a surprisingly poor 10-20-1 ATS when playing a game with a total of 210 or greater. Prior to their game against the Kings, the Thunder had been involved in a thriller at Golden State, losing on a Curry three, at the buzzer, in OT. They host those same Warriors tomorrow night. While it would normally be hard to look past a team like the Clippers, this may be the exception. Note that the Clippers get tomorrow night off. Regardless of OKC's "focus level," I look for the Clippers to show they are not to be forgotten about with a "statement win." 10* |
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03-02-16 | Hornets v. 76ers +8.5 | Top | 119-99 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While they just blew out the Suns at home yesterday, I don't feel the Hornets are ready to be laying this big a number on the road, even against the 76ers. A look at the Hornets' last five road games shows three wins, but none came by more than eight points. For the season, they're only 11-19 away from Charlotte. Even though yesterday's game was hardly "taxing," the Hornets still had to play. Therefore, its worth mentioning that they're only 2-7 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The 76ers upset the Hornets here last February, as similar sized underdogs. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again. 10* best bet |
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03-02-16 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia -9 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. Wrong place, wrong time for the Red Raiders. The Raiders tested WVU in the 1/23 game (WVU rallied late to win by 4) at T.T. but this one figures to play out much differently. The Mountaineers entered the January meeting on a 2-game slide. Now, however, they're off back-to-back double-digit wins. Playing their final home game of the season, they aren't about to take their pedal off the gas. The Mountaineers, 13-7 ATS their last 20 when laying points, beat Texas Tech by 19 here last season. A closer look at the game at Texas Tech shows that the Mountaineers got into foul trouble. The Red Raiders would connect on 32 of 34 free throws, a big reason why they were in the game at all. While thats certainly an impressive shooting percentage, its unlikely to be duplicated tonight. (With an average mark of 16 for 22 from the line on the road, they are a good FT shooting team but 16 makes is still a long way off from 32.) Without all those "free" points, keeping up will be considerably more difficult. The Red Raiders know they have a winnable home game vs. K-State on deck, something they can look forward to. Maybe that'll give them some comfort on the trip home. 10* Annihilator |
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03-02-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Notre Dame -2 | Top | 68-50 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Notre Dame. Off a blowout loss at Florida State and looking to avenge a 2/3 loss at Miami, the Irish should be hungry tonight. They're a perfect 5-0 SU (4-0-1 ATS) on the season, when off an ACC loss. Further motivation comes from the fact that the Irish know they can clinch a double-bye by winning this game and then taking care of business against NC State. Of course, there's also a lot at stake for the Hurricanes. They'll be without Ja'Quan Newton for this one though and they haven't been quite the same team on the road. The Irish haven't lost b2b games since the end of the 2013-2014 season. They beat the Canes here last season and I look for them to do so again tonight, covering the small number along the way. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-01-16 | Nets v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Nets have burned me a couple of times lately and they cost me last night. Tonight, I get some back from them. While the Nets were busy battling the Clippers last night, the Lakers have had the past few days off. They'd been on a slump before that, so the break figures to come in handy. This is arguably worse than a regular b2b spot for the Nets too, as it will also be their third game in the past four days. They have just two wins in eight tries, when playing the second of b2b games. Even after failing to cover their last two, the Lakers are still 7-3 ATS their last 10. They've also 14-8 ATS against teams from the Eastern Conference, including an early season win at Brooklyn. This is the Lakers best chance to snap their skid for at least a week, perhaps for the rest of the season. They need to take advantage - and they wil. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-01-16 | Indiana v. Iowa -4 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on IOWA. Both these teams have been much better on their home court. Playing at home, I expect the Hawkeyes to have the edge. The second half of February wasn't kind to the Hawkeyes. The calendar has flipped to March though and I expect them to ring in the new month with a win. This is the Hawkeyes last home game (Senior Night) and they'll be looking to avenge a 2/11 loss at Indiana. That was the very game that triggered their slide. A big win will go a long way in making things right. It'll also delay (prevent?) the Hoosiers from claiming the outright Big Ten title. I expect the Hawkeyes to get that win, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event |
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03-01-16 | Magic v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Magic beat the Mavs at Orlando recently. I expect the Mavs to avenge that 2/19 game this evening. The Mavs were laying -12.5 points when they hosted the Magic last year and tonight they're laying less than half that. Things have changed for both teams, but not that much. The Magic are still a poor 10-18 on the road while the Mavs are still a solid 18-12 at home. While the Magic are 3-5 ATS their last eight as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, the Mavs are 5-2 ATS their last seven against teams with a losing record. Payback time. 10* Annihilator |
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03-01-16 | USC Upstate v. North Florida -14.5 | Top | 69-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH FLORIDA. The Ospreys are off two close wins, one of them against these same Spartans. Those results have helped to keep this line a little lower than it could have been, as there's a big class difference here. The Ospreys, who did win by 16 at South Carolina Upstate earlier, were the best team in the conference this season and I expect them to let everyone know it in their tourney opener. In addition to dominating their own conference, the Ospreys put up 107 points against LSU while beating Illinois by double-digits. The Ospreys, 3-1 ATS their last four conf. tourney games, averaged 87 points against A-Sun teams this season. Bad news for the Spartans who score less than 70 on the road while giving up an average of 82.7. Blowout time. 10* B.M. |
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02-29-16 | Nets v. Clippers -12.5 | Top | 95-105 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Clippers shook off a disappointing loss against Denver by defeating Sacramento by double-digits in their last game. I expect an even more convincing victory tonight. While they've managed a couple of wins on their current trip, the Nets are not a strong road team. They're still 6-20 away from Brooklyn. They're also still just 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU) their last eight against teams with a winning record. Both teams had yesterday off. However, while the Clippers also have tomorrow off while the Nets will face the Lakers. Knowing thats a far more winnable game, it won't be surprising if the Nets "save themselves" a little for that game. The Clippers are 14-8-2 ATS (18-6 SU) against teams from the Eastern Conference and they're 9-5 ATS their last 14 against teams which allow 99 or more points per game. While the last couple of meetings at Brooklyn have been relatively close, the Clippers won by 39 points the last time they hosted the Nets. I see another lopsided result in the cards on Monday. 10* GOM |
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02-29-16 | Kansas v. Texas OVER 141 | Top | 86-56 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas and Kansas to finish OVER the total. This season's earlier meeting landed right on the closing total, a 76-67 victory for the Jayhawks. While tonight's total is slightly lower, I'm expecting the rematch to be higher-scoring. The Jayhawks have been involved in a few lower-scoring games recently. However, now that they've officially locked up at least a share of the Big 12 title (one more win means they win outright) I feel that they may ease up slightly on the defensive end and/or that the shots may start falling a little more regularly. Keep in mind that prior to their last three, the Jayhawks had scored at least 75 points in six straight, hitting 90 or more twice. They're still averaging better than 81 ppg including a healthy 76.4 on the road. Texas has seen the OVER go 7-4 when listed as an underdog. The Longhorns are averaging 75.4 ppg at home. They beat Oklahoma last time out, scoring 76, the fourth time in five games that they topped the 70 mark. While I respect the defenses, I feel that both teams are going to score some points tonight. That said, I believe the number will prove to be too low. 10* T.O.M |
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02-28-16 | USC +7 v. California | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC. The Bears have been a spread-covering machine in February but I expect their final game of the month to prove to be their toughest. The Trojans have stumbled a bit lately but have still had an excellent season and are still a dangerous team. I believe that their quick guards present some matchup problems for the Bears and I expect them to be extremely determined to try and go out and win their final road game of the regular season. Note that the Trojans are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. Needless to say, at 17-0, the Bears have been very good at home. Last year's game here was decided by a single point though (The Bears were laying -7.5 for that February contest.) and this is a better USC team. ("According to research by J.D. Hamilton of the NCAA, USC's 9.0 game improvement from last season (12-20 to 19-9) is tied for 12th best in the country and tops among teams in the Power 5 conferences.") I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. 10* Best Bet. |
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02-28-16 | Blazers v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers lost a tough one last time out and took me down with them. That won't stop me from backing them again today though. While the Blazers are playing well, they're up against an Indiana team which is angry after the Charlotte loss and which is out for revenge from an earlier blowout loss at Portland. While the Blazers are only 11-16 away from Portland, the Pacers are still a solid 18-10 here at Indiana. Overall, Portland has been stronger against weak teams while Indiana typically brings its "A Game" against the league's better teams. With both these teams above the .500 mark, note the Pacers are 19-8 ATS against teams with a winning record while the Blazers are only 12-14 ATS against winning teams. The Blazers are off a win at Chicago yesterday and will now be playing their third game in the past four days. I expect the Pacers to be both "fresher" and "hungrier" and for that to ultimately lead to a win and cover. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-28-16 | Raptors v. Pistons +1 | Top | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
I’m playing on DETROIT. White its the Pistons who played yesterday, off an emotional win over Cleveland on Friday, I feel that its the Raptors who may be ripe for a letdown here. The Raptors are 3-5 ATS off an upset win and 12-20-1 ATS in that situation the past few seasons. As far as they're concerned, it doesn't get much bigger than a victory over the Cavs. Some may be concerned about the back-to-back spot but I'm not too worried aboutit. Yesterday's game wasn't exactly taxing as the Pistons won comfortably. Also, they had two days off before yesterday AND they're already 2-0 SU/ATS in February when playing the second of b2b games. Last time that they did so, they won outright at Cleveland. The Pistons are playing well right now and Raptors coach Casey acknowledged that the addition of Tobias Harris (a player that has had success against Toronto when playing for Orlando) "adds quickness to a roster that is already fast and athletic." The Pistons may have some added motivation due to the fact that the Raptors have already beaten them twice this season, including a blowout win here at The Palace. Payback time. 10* Best Bet |
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02-28-16 | Hornets v. Hawks -4 | Top | 76-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks have taken two of three meetings overall this season and they've long dominated the Hornets here at Atlanta. Playing at home, I expect them to have the advantage this afternoon. Both teams had yesterday off after each won on Friday. Charlotte beat the Pacers by one, at Indiana. The Hawks snapped a 3-game skid with a 15-point blowout of Chicago. While they've had a successful road trip, the Hornets are still only 11-18 away from Charlotte. This is the final game of their long trip and they could easily already be looking forward to getting home. On the other hand, the Hawks know that they start a road trip of their own after this, beginning with a game at Golden State. Given the Warriors' home record this season, Atlanta knows it better take care of business today or it could easily find itself mired in another losing streak after the game against the Warriors. I expect them to do just that. 10* Annihilator |
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02-28-16 | Xavier v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seton Hall. The Musketeers are saying all the right things about putting their big win against Villanova behind them. Sometimes, thats easier said than done though. I expect them their winning streak to come to an end against what figures to be a very determined Seton Hall squad. While they stumbled against Butler a few games back, the Pirates are playing well right now. Off a 70-52 destruction of Providence, they've won seven of eight and they've covered nine of their last 11. They held the Friars to a mere 28.4% shooting. Xavier has already won more games than last year's Sweet 16 team did. Off the huge win and with bigger games on deck, starting with a revenge game against Creighton in their regular season home finale, I feel they won't be quite as hungry as their hosts here. Derrick Gordon (known for being openly gay) will be honored for Senior Day. Playing in front of a sold out Prudential Center, l I expect the Pirates to send him out a winner, in his final regular season home game. 10* breakfast club |
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02-27-16 | Nets v. Jazz -11 | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Nets were able to get a win last time out. This is a much tougher venue though and I expect them to stumble. The Nets, who closed as small favorites against the Suns, have just two wins in their last 14 tries off an "upset win" and they're just 18-28-1 ATS (14-33 SU) their last 47 in that situation. While the Nets will be happy about earning a rare road win, the Jazz should be in a foul mood after the Spurs embarrassed them here in the last game. They already won by 22 at Brooklyn this season and they beat the Nets by 35 here last season. All signs point to this one turning ugly once again. 10* B.M Beatdown |
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02-27-16 | Grizzlies v. Suns +6.5 | Top | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Grizzlies are in the midst of a favorable stretch of games. Four of their last five were against the Lakers (twice) the Nets and the T-Wolves. The only difficult game, out of that 5-game stretch, was against Toronto and the Grizzlies got blown out in that one. Now, they get to face the Suns and Kings, before hosting the Jazz and then the Suns again. That's about as "easy" as a 9-game stretch as it gets in today's NBA. Out of that entire 9-game stretch, the Grizzlies only play b2b games once - and that happens to be here. I feel that it could catch up with them and that they could easily get caught going through the motions against the lowly Suns. The Suns are certainly going through some growing pains right now. They're still playing hard though and should be desperate to get their coach his first victory, particularly when considering that they take to the road for four games (and 6 of 7) after this. I expect their best effort to lead to at least a cover. 10* best bet |
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02-27-16 | Pacific v. Santa Clara -1 | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Santa Clara. The Tigers won a close one (73-72 in OT) when these teams played at Pacific earlier. Playing at home, I expect the Broncos to return the favor. The Tigers snapped a 4-game losing streak last time out, rewarding the home fans by winning their final home game. The Broncos should be motivated to do the same. Note that the Tigers are 0-5 SU off a conference victory this season. In fact, they haven't had won two consecutive "lined games" all season long. (*They did win two in a row once but that included a victory over Bethesda-CA.) The Broncos weren't happy with their last effort, a blowout loss at St. Mary's. They're 6-2 ATS their last eight at home, after playing at least three straght on the road though and they're also 6-1-1 ATS their last eight off a loss of 20 or more points, most recently winning outright at Loyola Marymount after getting trounced by BYU. I like their chances of bouncing back again here. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-27-16 | DePaul v. Providence -12.5 | Top | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on Providence. I won with Depaul last game. Playing their final "winnable" home game and playing a revenge game against lowly St. John's, I expected the Blue Demons to go all out and leave it all on the floor. They rewarded me by doing just that. I don't expect a repeat performance this afternoon though. This time, its the Friars who are playing with revenge. This time, its the Friars with a considerable edge in talent. Providence was laying eight points for the earlier game at Depaul but lost by seven. That loss started a slide that has continued right up until today. I believe the Friars, 13-4 ATS their last 17 when playing with revenge and knowing they're now "on the bubble," will be looking to make things right. Coach Ed Cooley knows Providence hasn't been playing well and I expect him to have his team ready. "There's no mistaking that we're not playing as well as we need to. Hopefully we come back and get the group ready to play against DePaul on Saturday. It's that time of the year and we just haven't played well." Don't worry Ed, I expect that they will. The Friars beat Depaul by 27 last February and I sense another blowout this afternoon. 10* B.M. |
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02-26-16 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 210 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis and LA to finish UNDER the total. These teams just played a high-scoring game against each other at Memphis a couple of nights ago. I'm expecting tonight's rematch to be considerably lower-scoring. The Grizzlies are playing much lower-scoring games on the road than they are at home this season. They score fewer points on the road AND they allow less. While they've been profitable for "over" bettors at home, the UNDER is 15-11 when they play on the road. The opposite is true of the Lakers, as its been their home games which are much lower-scoring than their road games. They score fewer points at home AND they allow less. The UNDER is 15-10 in games played here. With Wednesday's result, the Over is now 7-2 the last nine times that the Lakers played at Memphis, 4-1 the last five. Games here at LA have been the opposite the though, as its the UNDER which is 4-1 the last five and 6-2 the last eight. Yet, we're getting a higher number to work with tonight than we were on Wednesday, the highest for a game in this series in many years, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. 10* Main Event |
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02-26-16 | Nuggets v. Mavs -5 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. With the Nuggets off an upset win at LA against the Clippers and the Mavericks off a double-digit loss against OKC, some might be tempted to back the visitors here. Recent results suggest that would be the wrong move though. The last time the Nuggets were off an "upset win" was when they defeated the Pistons on 2/10. They'd follow up that victory with three straight SU/ATS losses, although it should be noted that the All-Star Break separated those games. All the same, they're just 6-11-1 ATS (4-14 SU) when off a SU win as an underdog. Conversely, the Mavs tend to respond well to bad losses. The last time they were off a double-digit defeat, they won outright at Memphis in their next game. Including that result, they're 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss, 16-10 ATS (17-9 SU) after allowing 105 or more points. They won by 11 against the Nuggets here earlier, a game where they were laying -8.5 points. We're getting a much lower line to work with here and I'm expecting a similar result. 10* BM |
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02-26-16 | Hornets v. Pacers -3 | Top | 96-95 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hornets just embarrassed the Pacers here at Indiana a couple of weeks ago. Since then, the Pacers have won three of four, including a win at OKC and a win in their lone home game. That 2/10 game notwithstanding, the Pacers are much better at home than the Hornets are on the road. Indiana is 18-9 here, the Hornets are 10-18 away from Charlotte. That said, this line could easily be a little higher. Due to their strong home record, the Hornets are still above .500, barely. That's noteworthy as the Pacers are 19-7 ATS against teams with a winning record. They're also 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) the last 12 times that they were home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. Prior to the 2.10 meeting, the Pacers had long dominated the Hornets here. I expect them to resume that homecourt dominance this evening. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-26-16 | Iona v. Manhattan +6.5 | Top | 86-73 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Manhattan. In his three seasons playing for the Jaspers, Jack Powers led his team to two NCAA Tournament appearances, including 1958 when they beat nationally ranked West Virginia and Jerry West at MSG. Powers, who finished with 1,139 points, will have his number retired at halftime of tonight's game, the first Jasper to have that done. Before the game, seniors Shane Richards and RaShawn Stores will be honored. I expect the combination of "Jack Powers Night" and "Senior Day," to provide the Jaspers with some added motivation to win tonight. The fact that they lost at Iona should provide even further incentive. While this is a big rivalry for both teams, Iona may not be quite as hungry. The Gaels are off b2b wins over the top two teams in the conference. They've got the regular season home finale on deck and bigger postseason games ahead. I'm taking the points with the motivated live dog. 10* Motivational Mismatch |
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02-25-16 | Spurs v. Jazz +4 | Top | 96-78 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Jazz were hammered in both this season's previous meetings. Both of those were at San Antonio though and Gobert wasn't around for either game. Tonight, they're rested, relatively healthy and playing at home. Big difference as the Jazz are an entirely different team here and they're now playing arguably their best basketball of the season. The Jazz have won seven straight here. While the last game went to OT, allowing Houston to score 114, they're allowing an average of only 88.1 ppg in regulation during the winning streak, holding teams to 40.8% from the field. The Spurs played last night and playing the seventh leg of an 8-game road trip. The Jazz beat the Spurs in both games here last season. With all due respect to San Antonio, I'm expecting another upset tonight. 10* roast |
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02-25-16 | St. John's v. DePaul -5 | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on DEPAUL. One might assume that the Blue Demons hadn't been favored in some time. However, they were actually small favorites for last week's game at St John's. They got smoked by 15 points in that one though, which should provide some extra incentive tonight. The Red Storm would follow up last week's win vs. Depaul with a thriller against Seton Hall. Needing a win to keep their tournament hopes alive, the Pirates jumped out to a 19-point lead. To their credit, the Red Storm didn't quite. Instead, they rallied all the way back to take the lead, eventually losing 62-61. Off that thriller, a game that had meaningful NCAA implications for Seton Hall, and having fought so hard only to fall short, it may be tough to "get up" for a road game against lowly Depaul. Playing with recent revenge and playing likely their last "winnable" game, that should not be the case for the Blue Demons. They're 2-1 ATS their last three as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range and I expect another win and cover here. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-25-16 | Nets v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 116-106 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. Not exactly a dream matchup if you're a fan but I believe the Suns are in a good spot and offering excellent value. Both teams are pretty bad, obviously. Both play hard on most nights but are generally unable to compete against the top teams in the league. They'll both view tonight as a chance to earn a win. While a victory could actually impact their lottery chances negatively, I do expect both teams to be "trying." While the Nets don't even own their first round pick, I still believe that the Suns will be a little hungrier. They still haven't won a game since the coaching change and know that tonight offers their best chance in the forseeable future to get one. The Nets have lost seven straight away from Brooklyn and are 4-20 on the road for the season. The Suns, 19-8 ATS their last 27 against teams from the Atlantic are a profitable 28-17-1 the past few seasons, off a double-digit loss, 12-9 ATS this season. They were embarrassed last time out and I expect an entire team effort in this one. 10* best bet |
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02-25-16 | Portland State +5.5 v. North Dakota | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland State. I don't believe that North Dakota is playing well enough right now to be laying this large a number. Not against a Vikings team which is coming off its best offensive game of the season and coming in full of confidence. Portland State put up 107 points last time out, its first triple-digit effort against a Div. 1 team this season, third overall. Cameron Forte led the way, shooting 14 of 20 while scoring 32 points and grabbing nine boards. He was one of five Vikings to reach double-figures. That victory came against an Eastern Washington team which had won seven straight, too, one of those a double-digit win against North Dakota. Portland State coach Tyler Geving, who adjusted his lineup (going small) before the last game had this to say of his team's big win: "They deserve it. They have had good attitudes and worked hard. Nobody has been hanging their heads." An expected fast tempo figures to favor the Vikings. Portland State is 10-6 ATS its last 16 with a total in the 150 to 159.5 range while North Dakota State is 5-8 ATS during the same span. Including the loss at Eastern Washington, North Dakota is 0-3 ATS its last three games, two of those decided by a single point. While an upset won't surprise, I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 10* Big Sky GAME OF YEAR |
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02-24-16 | Wisconsin v. Iowa -7.5 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on IOWA. In addition to playing at home, I believe that the schedule favors the Hawkeyes. Iowa has been off since 2/17. During that time, the Badgers have been involved in two hard-fought games, a loss at Michigan State and a win vs. Illinois. At this time of the season, the extra rest can certainly be helpful and I expect the Hawkeyes to have the fresher legs. Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig's post-game comments (after the Illinois game) are telling: "I just didn’t have any legs pretty much the whole game. Everything felt right on but was short. Everybody in college basketball is tired." Those tired legs may make slowing down Iowa's Mike Gesell a little more challenging. Needless to say, the Hawkeyes have been tough to beat here. Unbeatable, in fact. Four straight wins will give the Hawkeyes their first (outright) Big Ten (regular season) Championship in nearly 50 years. While accomplishing that feat won't be easy, I do expect them to take the first step tonight, picking up the cover along the way. 10* Big Ten G.O.Y. |
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02-24-16 | Air Force v. Fresno State -11 | Top | 63-64 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Fresno State. The Bulldogs are rolling at the moment. They've won four of five, covering in all four of those victories. They're stepping down in class tonight and I believe that they're ready to deiiver a blowout. While the Bulldogs are 14-2 at home, the Falcons are 2-10 on the road. While Fresno State averages 77.9 points at home, Air Force manages a mere 60.1 ppg on the road. With an O/U line in the mid-130s, the expected pace figures to favor Fresno. The Bulldogs are 4-0 SU/ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, the Falcons are 2-6 ATS (0-8 SU) when doing so. The Falcons kept it close in this season's first meeting; I don't expect them to be so fortunate tonight. 10* B.M. |
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02-24-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -8 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Lakers burned me in their last game, scoring a bunch of meaningless points in the closing seconds to eke out a cover at Milwaukee. I won't let that stop me from going against them tonight though as I believe their "good fortune" runs out in a big way here. Even though they've been covering lately, the Lakers still aren't a good team and they still aren't winning. They've dropped six straight and those close losses eventually do take a toll. The Grizzlies are the typed of team that tends to take care of business against the league's lesser teams, too. Indeed, they're 25-4 SU and 18-10-1 ATS when matched up against sub-500 teams. That includes a 16-point blowout of these same Lakers here earlier. Knowing that they'll be hosting the Grizzlies on Friday, the Lakers may realize that they're more likely to win that one and already have a losing mentality coming in here. On the other hand, knowing they'll face the Lakers at LA on Friday, the Grizzlies know they need to take care of business tonight. They're 3-0-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range and I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10* Personal Fav |
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02-24-16 | Wizards v. Bulls -1 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. While a player like him can't be replaced, the Bulls seem to have adjusted to life without Jimmy Butler. They're off back-to-back double-digit wins and have covered three straight. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to extend that streak for another day. While the Bulls have had the past two days off, the Wizards played last night against New Orleans. Yes, Washington is 6-7 ATS (bad, but not terrible) when playing b2b games. However, with the pointspread not really a factor tonight, we can instead look at their 4-9 SU record, when playing the second of b2b games. Note that they're 0-2 over the last month, when playing a road game, after playing the previous day. While we don't necessarily think of them as this type of team, the Bulls are 5-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. I expect those stats to improve with a Chicago win on ESPN tonight. 10* Main Event |
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02-23-16 | Rockets v. Jazz -4.5 | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah. These teams met twice in January, once at Utah and once at Houston. The Rockets won both games. I expect the revenge-minded Jazz to return the favor on Tuesday. A look at the January games reveals that Favors didn't play in either for the Jazz and that Utah was struggling at the time. Also, Gobert missed the first and wasn't in game shape for the second, playing only 15 mins in his first game back in five weeks. Favors is back now and playing well. He makes this team much better. In his last two games alone, he's played 67 combined minutes, scoring 45 points while pulling down 18 boards. He also added seven assists and four blocks. Gobert is also back and contributing significantly. He's playing at least 30 mins a night and has a double-double in five of his last six games. With the exception of a couple of wins at Phoenix, against a depleted Suns team, road wins have been few and far between for the Rockets over the last month. The only other team they beat away from Houston was New Orleans, when they eked out a 1-point win back on 1/25. For the season, they're allowing 108.3 ppg on the road. The Jazz are tough to beat at home. They're 18-10 overall, including a 4-1-1 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, 12-4-1 ATS (15-2 SU) their last 17 in that role. During that time, they're also 34-18-1 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. They're battling with the Rockets for a playoff spot and know they can't afford to lose a third game to them. They won't. 10* GOW. |
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02-23-16 | Michigan State v. Ohio State +6.5 | Top | 81-62 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ohio State. The Spartans are playing well right now. The same can be said of the Buckeyes though. They've won four straight and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. That's not surprising, given that they're a young team which has been growing and improving as the season has gone on. The Buckeyes last home game resulted in a double-digit win against Michican. They know they play at Michigan State on 3/5 and they'll be determined to go out and protect their homecourt here, while showing the world and proving to themselves that they can play with the best in the conference. While the Spartans are obviously a very strong team, they can be beaten. They're just 2-2 their last four on the road. Izzo is a great coach and is saying all the right things to his team about maintaining focus etc. Still, they've got bigger games ahead. In other words, I believe this game means more to Ohio State than it does to Michigan State. The Buckeyes have quietly been competitive here for months. Their only home losses since 12/1 have been against Maryland and Virginia and both came by six points or less. An upset here would move the Buckeyes into the NCAA playoff picture. They're 7-1 ATS at home when the O/U line ranged from 135 to 139.5, going 39-18 ATS in that role over the years. With nine straight meetings decided by single-digits, seven of those by four or less, I'm grabbing the points. 10* Main Event |
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02-22-16 | Lakers v. Bucks -8 | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully played against the Lakers last night and I'm going back against them here. The Lakers fought hard in yesterday's game, as they were in it almost the entire way. That was also the case in Friday's game against San Antonio. Off those two hard-fought losses and now playing their third game in four days, I feel they're ready to get blown out by a rested and revenge-minded Milwaukee team. The Bucks have won three of four and covered four of five. They had yesterday off, after winning by eight at Atlanta the previous day. When they played at LA earlier this season, they were still riding high off their upset of the Warriors, the first team to beat Golden State. Perhaps they had a letdown. Either way, they got blown out (113-95) by the Lakers, a game which they haven't forgotten. Despite playing hard, the Lakers have been terribly defensively on their current trip. No games have gone to OT yet they're allowing an average of 112 points, opposing teams shooting better than 49%. Their last three opponents have hit better than 50% from beyond the arc, after the Bulls lit them up from 3-point range yesterday. Bryant is supposed to play tonight (last game at Milwaukee) but thats not necessarily a positive, in the second of a b2b set. The Bucks are 4-0 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. As of this writing, the O/U line is sitting right in the middle of that range; I'm expecting a blowout. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-22-16 | Youngstown State v. Wisc-Milwaukee -16.5 | Top | 51-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wisc. Milwaukee. Off a 34-point destruction of Cleveland State, the Panthers come in full of confidence. While the line may initially seem high, keep in mind that the Panthers already won by 16, at Youngstown State. Last year, the teams were more equal (line was 3.5) and the Panthers still beat the Penguins by 15 here. The Panthers know if they can beat Valparaiso in their next game, they're likely to finish with 20 wins. But they also know they need to take care of business here first and will look to keep the positive momentum going by keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. The Penguins are 6-17, the past few seasons, when playing a team with a winning record, after at least 15 games of the season had been played. During that stretch, the Panthers (17-11) are 14-7 ATS when playing a team with a losing record, after at least 15 games. They typically take care of conference weaklings, as they did against Clev. State. Youngstown State (10-18) qualifies as the Pens are really struggling right now. Playing their final road game of the regular season, the Penguins could easily already be thinking about their final two home games. The Penguins were very hot from the outside in their last game, going 12 for 19 (63%) from beyond the arc. That still wasn't enough. They turned the ball over 15 times and lost by 17 points, their fifth loss in six games. The lone win was at home vs. 5-21 Illinois-Chicago, the worst team in the conference. They're not likely to hit better than 60% from beyond the arc again and another blowout appears imminent. 10* B.M. |
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02-21-16 | Lakers v. Bulls -7 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls may be without a few key players but they still had enough to beat a good Toronto team by double-digits last time out. I believe that they've still got enough to do the same to the Lakers. The Lakers have been on a nice roll at the betting window, as they've mostly been competitive in their losses. They're still losing though and one game they weren't competitive in was the game against the Bulls on 1/28. Chicago won by 23. It should be noted that they didn't rely on Butler to dominate. Rather they got a big game from Gasol with solid contributions from the likes of Gibson, McDermott and Moore, all of whom will be available tonight. In terms of line value, the Bulls' injuries (and the recent Lakers' ATS winning streak) have worked in our favor, bringing the line down lower than it even was for last month's game at LA. The last meeting here at Chicago saw the Bulls win by 20, Gasol leading the way with 23 points and 13 boards. I expect him to have another big day against his former team, leading the Bulls to another win and cover. 10* Personal Fav |
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02-21-16 | Hornets v. Nets +7 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Nets played the Hornets tough at Charlotte earlier in the season, losing by five points. For today's home game, we're actually getting more points to work with (for the Nets) than we were for that road game. For a team that's showing signs of coming around, I believe thats providing us with excellent value. Admittedly, the Nets have some issues and they are having a tough season. That said, they're off a double-digit win over the Knicks on Friday and have quietly won three of their last four games here, while going 5-3 ATS their last eight overall. With their longest road trip of the season on deck and knowing that road wins have been hard to come by, the Nets know they could badly use another victory here before they go. Speaking of road trips, the Hornets are playing the third leg of a 6-game trip. Having already won the first two games and with the Cavs coming up next, it may be easy to look past lowly Brooklyn. While Charlotte averages a healthy 102 ppg, the Nets are 6-2 ATS their last eight against teams that score 99 or more. They're also averaging 106 ppg over their past five, having hit triple-digits in six of their last eight. I'm grabbing the points. 10* best bet |
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02-21-16 | Cavs v. Thunder -3 | Top | 115-92 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. The Cavs won a close one when these teams played at Cleveland in December. I expect the revenge-minded Thunder to return the favor this afternoon. While the Cavs are a respectable 16-10 at home, the Thunder are a much better 25-6 at home. Cleveland averages 99.7 ppg on the road, OKC averages 108.7 at home. The Cavs, 2-8 ATS when playing with two day's rest, are 2-5 ATS their last seven. They've won two in a row against the Thunder but both games were at Cleveland. The Thunder won the last meeting here by nine. Prior to Friday's loss against the Pacers, they'd won nine straight here. They're still 14-3 their last 17 games, ALL 14 of those wins coming by a minimum of three points. It should be noted that the Cavs are expected to be without newly acquired Frye and that they may be without Shumpert. That may not sound like a big deal but Shumpert is a good defender and the Cavs could use all hands on deck here. If Shumpert were to play, he may be at less than 100%. Lue had this to say of him: "Shump, being our best defender on ball, we need him. He's got to guard both players." With or without Shumpert, there's no guarding OKC's dynamic duo. Payback time at Chesapeake Energy Arena. 10* Main Event |
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02-21-16 | Monmouth v. St. Peter's +7.5 | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Peter's. Monmouth is a good MAAC team which is having a very good season. That said, I believe that this is a very tough spot for the Hawks. Both teams saw winning streaks snapped last time out. The Peacocks had won four straight before losing by a single point at Quinnipiac on Thursday. While close losses like that can sting, the Hawks are in a much worse "situational" spot. They played on Friday (as opposed to Thursday) so are playing with one less day's worth of rest. (Note that the Peacocks needed that extra day's rest as they had to play a make-up game on Wednesday.) Having won eight straight, the Hawks were playing their biggest game of the season. In fact, it was being billed as their biggest game in a decade. Here were a couple of comments from Monmouth players, prior to that game: Justin Robinson: "I expect it to be pretty packed before we come out the first time for warm-ups. A couple of students told me they were camping out all day before class and all that. People are very excited, especially since we played them the first time. I've tried to block it out, but you can't block it out anymore." Josh James: "I expect the atmosphere to be like no other This game, the anticipation for this game is unreal. People have been talking about it since the day after we played them. People have been coming into get their vouchers, and it's only Wednesday, so you know they're fired up to watch us play." What happened? Playing in front of all their excited fans, the Hawks got blown out right out of the gate. (That suited me just fine as I had Iona!) Having just failed to show up for such an emotional game, less than 48 hours ago, I believe the Hawks are going to struggle here. Note that they're 9-14 ATS off a conference loss the past few seasons. The Peacocks, who have won four straight here at home, are 9-4 ATS when getting points. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Monmouth, I expect their best effort here. 10* SITUATIONAL GOY |