Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-11-16 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 217.5 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland and GS to finish UNDER the total. The return of Curry has brought a much higher O/U line than we saw for the previous games here. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Obviously, both teams can score a lot of points. People forget how strong defensively the Warriors can be. They're allowing 100.7 ppg in al of their playoff games (101 ppg at home on the season) and they're holding teams to a mere 40.5% shooting percentage in the playoffs. The UNDER is already 4-2 when the Blazers have been trailing in a playoff series and I expect those stats to improve tonight. 10* |
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05-11-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. While the teams split the first two meetings here - and also at Miami - I expect homecourt to prove the difference this evening. Sure, the Raptors would have liked to have stolen Game 4. They've still got to be happy with the split there though as the series is now essentially a 'Best of 3' with the Raptors holding homecourt advantage. That only matters if they take care of business tonight though. I look for them to do just that. The Heat, now without both Bosh and Whiteside, remain a sub-500 team on the road. They're just 11-20-1 ATS the last 32 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. Admittedly, the Raptors haven't exactly thrived as favorites in these playoffs either. That said, I believe they're going to put it all together this evening. The Raptors haven't gotten strong play from their stars but their arguably superior depth has them still in the driver's seat. I expect an improved performance from Lowry, the rest of the supporting cast continuing to do their thing, to lead to a critical win and cover. 10* |
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05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 199 | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA and OKC to finish UNDER the total. The last (and only) time that the series was tied was Game 3, after the teams had split the first two games. That game stayed below the number and I expect this one to do the same. Back at home, naturally, the Spurs are favored again. That's noteworthy as the UNDER is 47-34-2 when they've been the favored team, 2-1 in this series. Including that 2-1 mark in this series, the UNDER is also 9-5 when the Thunder have been listed as underdogs. While the Spurs have excelled on both sides of the ball all season, its been their defense which has really separated them from other top teams. They're allowing a mere 90.4 ppg on this floor for the season, 90.1 in the playoffs overall. I expect this to be the lowest-scoring game of the series yet. 10* |
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05-09-16 | Warriors v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers won Game 3, again proving that they are capable of beating the Warriors here at Portland. Yet, even with Curry still listed as doubtful, the Blazers are even bigger underdogs for Game 4. Draymond Green kind of trash-talked the Blazers after Game 3 saying: "We'll be better. I'll be better. We'll win ... That team, they had doubt. I could tell they had doubt. And we didn't take advantage of it ... and that's on me." Green may be right that the Blazers had a little doubt. That doubt is gone though, as that Game 3 victory should do wonders for their confidence. Green's words should only add to their (Portland's) resolve. Note that the Blazers are an outstanding 28-10 SU/ATS the last 38 times that they were off an "upset" victory, a game where they won SU as an underdog. That includes a 13-4 SU/ATS mark their last 17 in that situation. Confidence restored, I like their chances and am grabbing the points. 10* |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 198.5 | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA/OKC to finish UNDER the total. After a blowout in the opener, the last two have both been close games which finished below the total. That type of play figures to carry over into tonight. The Spurs are allowing just 87.1 points in these playoffs, their games averaging 191.8. With the Game 3 result, the Thunder have now seen the UNDER go 6-2 the last eight times that they were trailing in a playoff series. During that time, the Spurs have seen the UNDER go 12-7 when leading in a playoff series. I'm expecting "more of the same" Sunday night. 10* |
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05-07-16 | Warriors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 60 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers are a different team at home. They beat the Warriors here in the regular season and I expect them to be at their very best this evening. The Blazers, who average a healthy 207.5 ppg here, don't mind these high-scoring games here at Portland. They're 15-4 their last 19 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or more. The Warriors have continued to win without the league MVP, who they'll have to do without for more game. I'll take the points but I expect Curry's absence to finally catch up with the Warriors here, the Blazers elevating their level of play and winning "outright." 10* |
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05-06-16 | Cavs v. Hawks +3 | Top | 121-108 | Loss | -113 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks got embarrassed at Cleveland. I believe they're better than that and I expect them to show it in Game 3. While the Cavs are a fairly impressive 26-17 on the road, the Hawks are an even better 30-14 at home. The Cavs have outscored teams by a little less than four points per game on the road (102 to 98.1) the Hawks are outscoring teams by more than 6.5 points per game (103.4 to 96.8) at home. The last meeting here came down to the wire, the Cavs winning by two, in OT. The Hawks were small favorites in that game and they're small underdogs for this one. I feel that's providing excellent value. Look for a different Hawks team to bounce back with a 'statement' win. 10* |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. Some have already written the Hawks off. I'm not among them. While they came up a little short at the end in Game 1, they were right there. This is a complete "team" and I believe they can still give the Cavs a scare in this series. Needless to say, an upset tonight would go a long way. Note that the Hawks played one of their best games of the first round in Game 2, a 17-point blowout. The Cavs haven't been too good off a big win this season, as they're only 14-20 ATS off a double-digit victory. I'm taking the points. 10* |
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05-03-16 | Blazers +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers played poorly in Game 1 and still lost by only 12. They know they need to play a lot better tonight to take advantage of the fact that the Warriors are still without Curry. The Blazers are already 2-1 ATS when trailing in a series and they're 14-9 ATS off a double-digit loss. I expect a much better effort to result in a much closer result. 10* best bet |
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05-03-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. While a 5-point win wasn't enough to cover Game 7 against the Pacers, it was enough to send the Raptors to the second round. Thats a huge monkey off their back, as it had been years since they advanced this far. Without that "monkey" weighing them down, I expect to see the best of the Raptors tonight. The Raptors were very good in that Game 7 and easily could have covered. Their previous home game saw them successfully complete a huge fourth quarter comeback. This is a team which is playing very well here right now, supported by an entire (hockey-starved) country. After years of struggling against them here, the Raptors are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they hosted the Heat. They won those games by 10, 8 and 21 points. I expect another win and cover tonight. 10* Personal Fav |
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05-01-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 84-89 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. Each team has proven capable of winning on the road. However, the home team has still won four of the six games, each team going 2-1 on its home floor. I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference again this evening. The Raptors have worked extremely hard to get here. Not just this year but the past few years. They know that another first round exit is likely to lead to changes. I don't think Lowry and co are ready for that. While they didn't cover here last time, the Raptors did rally and win with an incredible fourth quarter; they're still 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS the last eight times they hosted the Pacers. I look for an inspired performance as they take the next step with a win and cover. 10* |
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04-30-16 | Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 201.5 | Top | 92-124 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Spurs/Thunder UNDER the total. While I respect both offenses, I also believe that both these defenses are very good. That's particularly true of the Spurs as they held opposing teams to a mere 90.2 ppg on this floor this season. So far in the playoffs, the Spurs are allowing an average of just 81 ppg. The Thunder are allowing 93.8 ppg during the playoffs, also quite stingy. This season's two regular season meetings here at SA both finished at 200 or less. Those two games averaged 189 points. Perhaps most importantly, with both teams having clinched early, neither has played in quite some time. OKC last played on 4/25 while SA last played on 4/24. Therefore, its worth mentioning that the UNDER is a combined 5-1 (2-0 + 3-1) when these teams played with three or more day's rest in between games this season. OKC saw its first game of the Dallas series produce only 178 points (O/U line in the 200s) after playing with three or more day's rest. The Thunder's game against Indiana, after the break, also stayed below the total. The Spurs first game in the Memphis series stayed below the total, when SA was playing with three day's rest. Same goes for their games against Detroit and LAC, the previous two times that they played with three or more day's rest. (Only a 1/19 game at Phoenix went Over, when SA played with three or more day's rest.) I'm expect another "defensive affair" here. 10* |
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04-29-16 | Raptors +2.5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-101 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. While I won with the Pacers (and the over) in the last game, I like the Raptors here. Toronto was down big heading into the fourth quarter of Game 5. If the Raptors had lost that game, its entirely possible that I'd have come back with Indiana again here. However, they didn't. They played an inspired fourth quarter and came back for one of the bigger wins in team history. I believe that huge comeback wiill provide plenty of positive momentum here while the Pacers could be a little deflated. This is a different Raptor team from the one that has fallen short in the playoffs the past few seasons. I expect them to take the "next step" tonight. 10* |
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04-28-16 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 197.5 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/Boston OVER the total. While this has been a low-scoring series, I expect the offenses to come to life tonight. The last two games here at Boston had an O/U lines of 203 and 203.5. Those games finished with 214 and 199 points, respectively. The Celtics have seen the OVER go 9-5 when off a double-digit loss and 11-4 the last 15 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range. With games here averaging more than 206 points on the season, I look for the Celtics to push the pace a little more than we saw in Atlanta and for the final combined score to finish above the low number. 10* |
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04-27-16 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 196.5 | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA and Portland to finish OVER the total. With Griffin and Paul both out, most aren't giving the Clippers much of a chance. They've went from being home favorites to home underdogs. At the same time, the O/U line has dropped significantly. I believe that the much lower number is providing us with excellent value. Blazer games are stil averaging 208.6 points per game and this team still allows 106.4 ppg away from Portland. While the Clippers, who average 105 ppg on this floor, will obviously miss their stars, they've still got plenty of offensive weapons. The OVER is 17-6 the last 23 times that the Blazers played a road game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range and I expect those stats to improve here. 10* |
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04-26-16 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 191.5 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 60 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana and Toronto to finish OVER the total. Every game in this series has fallen below the total so far. That's caused the O/U line to come down a little from what it was at the beginning of the series, providing us some value in the process. Every game has ended up with one team winning by doulbe-digits so far and the lopsided nature of those games has had an effect on the scoring/tempo. With this being a critical game and the series tied, I won't be surprised if we see a closer match tonight. Either way, I do expect this to be the highest scoring game we've seen yet. While we didn't see it after their 10-point loss in Game 1, off a bad loss, the Raptors have regularly responded with high-scoring games. In fact, the OVER is 22-7-1 the last 30 times that they were off a double-digit loss, 8-3 ATS the last 11. Looking at Indiana and we find that the OVER is 17-6 the last 23 times the Pacers played a road game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range. Games here are averaging 202.6 ppg on the season. Don't be surprised when the offenses come to life tonight. 10* |
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04-26-16 | Pacers +7 v. Raptors | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. This series hasn't seen any really "close" games yet, as the winning team has won each game by double-digits. I won't be surprised if that changes tonight though and if this one comes down to the wire. The Raptors are just 4-7 ATS their last 11 as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Pacers, on the other hand, are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. While I respect and like this Raptor team, they're now only 4-10-1 ATS (5-10 SU) their last 15 playoff games and I think that they'll be feeling some pressure here. It should also be noted that the Raptors, who only scored 83 last time out, are 0-3 SU/ATS on the season after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game. After scoring 79 against Boston in March, they lost outright against Houston in their next game. After scoring 84 against the Wizards, they followed it up with an outright loss against the Suns. Earlier in the season, after scoring 76 against Miami, they lost outright (as 7.5 point home favorites) against the Knicks. I'm grabbing the points. 10* best bet |
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04-25-16 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 205.5 | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA and Portland to finish OVER the total. While this has been a fairly low-scoring series thus far, I look for the offenses to come alive tonight. While the last game was low-scoring, games here at Portland are still averaging greater than 209 (209.8) points on the season. Meanwhile, Clipper road games are still averaging greater than 206 (206.2) points per game on the season. With the OVER at 9-6 when the Blazers were off an "upset" win, I look for things to return to "normal" tonight. When these teams played here a month ago, the O/U line was 216.5. We're getting a far lower line here, thanks in large part to the results of the last three games. As I'm expecting both teams to hit triple-digits, I believe thats providing us with excellent value here. 10* blue chip |
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04-24-16 | Cavs v. Pistons OVER 198.5 | Top | 100-98 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit and Cleveland OVER the total. The first three games of this series all had O/U lines of at least 200. However, with the last two of those games staying below the total, we now have an O/U line in high 190s, as of this writing. I feel thats providing us with excellent value, as I look for this to be the highest scoring game of the series. At 3-0, the pressure is off, the series is over. I expect that to lead to a little less defensive intensity. Games here have averaged 204.8 points this season and the OVER has been highly profitable when the O/U line has dipped a little lower than that. In fact, the OVER is 8-0 on the season when the Pistons played a home game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range. On 3/16 they had an O/U line of 198 against the Hawks and the teams combined for 232. On 2/28 against the Raptors the O/U line was 199 and they scored 215. In the 1/12 game against the Spurs, the O/U line was 197 and they reached 208 On 1/4 they combined with the Magic for 204 points, a game which had an O/U line of 198.5. They also had four Nov/Dec home games (Celtics, Lakers, Rockets and these same Cavs) with O/U lines in that range and those games finished with 235, 202, 221 and 203. Going back a little further finds the OVER at 17-5-1 the past few seasons when the Pistons played a home game with an O/U line in that range. I expect them to combine for more than 200 again tonight. 10* main event |
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04-24-16 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 216.5 | Top | 121-94 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS and Houston to finish OVER the total. While this has been a "relatively" low-scoring series thus far, I think the offenses are ready for a break-out game this afternoon. Curry is expected to be back and Harden and the Rockets have gained some confidence. With Curry's expected return, the Warriors are (obviously) much bigger favorites than they were for Game 3. That's noteworthy as we find the OVER at 10-2 the last dozen times that they were listed as road favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range. Perhaps more importantly, note that the OVER is 6-2 when the Warriors were off an 'upset' loss. The Rockets have seen the OVER go 10-5 when playing with two day's rest. They know they're going to score a lot more than they did in Game 3 if they want to pull off another upset. The Rockets average better than 106 ppg while the Warriors average more than 114. I won't be surprised to see both exceed those averages here. 10* blue chip |
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04-23-16 | Heat v. Hornets -2 | Top | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Off back-to-back blowout losses, the Hornets are down 2-0. They're also without Batum, one of their key players. That's led to a very low line which I believe is providing us with excellent value. True, the Batum loss hurts in the "long-term." However, for a team in need of a "shake-up," it may prove to be exactly what they need for a single game. The Hornets have several options; they could choose to start Lin, Jefferson or Kaminsky. Lamb also should see some more time. No matter how they choose to play it, I expect a MUCH better overall effort from the Hornets, now that they're back at Charlotte. Remember, this is a team that went 30-11 here on the season. Meanwhile, the Heat were below 500 (20-21) away from Miami. Even after the Game 2 loss, the Hornets remain a healthy 12-6 ATS off a double-digit loss. I look for them to bounce back and get back in the series with a big win here. 10* |
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04-23-16 | Heat v. Hornets UNDER 201 | Top | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami and Charlotte to finish UNDER the total. The games at Miami were extremely high-scoring but I expect the change in venue to also bring a change in temp. Part of the reason for the high scores the last two games was that Miami hit 9 pointers in each game. Even coach Spoelstra and star Wade acknowledge that the Heat aren't likely to shoot as well from beyond the arc as they did last game. Spoelstra commented: "We're not built to necessarily make threes," "So we were 9 for 16 the other night [in Wednesday's Game 2 victory] and everybody's talked about our threes. We only shot 16. We have to get to our game." Wade added: "It's awesome when the ball is going in like that from the perimeter for us ... That's not an everyday game for us. So we can't rely on that and we don't hunt for that." The Hornets have seen the UNDER go 19-8 the last 27 times that they were listed as a home favorite of three or fewer points, 4-1 this season. Meanwhile, the Heat have seen the UNDER go 3-1 as a road underdog of three or fewer points, 8-4 the last 12. The Heat don't score nearly as many points away from Miami and they won't today. 10* |
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04-22-16 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 181 | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Spurs/Grizzlies OVER the total. Yesterday, we saw the Mavs/Thunder series shift from OKC to Dallas. The games at OKC had both been extremely low-scoring. That helped lead to a lower O/U line for Game 3. I suggest that the shift of venue would lead to a faster tempo and a much higher score; the teams combined for 233 points. This series has a similar setup. Both games at SA were very low-scoring. Now, with the series shifting to Memphis for Game 3, we're getting a much lower O/U line to work with. Just like last night, I believe thats providing us with excellent value. The Grizzlies score considerably more points per game at home (101.9) than they do on the road. They also allow slightly more ppg here (101.5) than they do on the road. The Spurs can score anywhere, they average 101.9 on the road, exactly what Memphis averages at home. They also give up more on the road than they do at home. The OVER was 25-16 here on the season, 1-0 when the O/U line ranged from 180 to 184.5. That game happened to be against these same Spurs. The game had an O/U line of 183 and finished at 186. The Spurs other visit here had an O/U line in the 190s and finished with 188. I expect both teams to score tonight, the final combined score finishing above the low number. 10* |
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04-21-16 | Raptors v. Pacers +1.5 | Top | 101-85 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. I respect both these teams. I won with the Pacers in Game 1 and came back with the Raptors in Game 2. The Raptors were great on the road (24-17) this season. However, they still weren't as good as the Pacers (26-15) were at home. The Raptors outscore teams by 2.5 points per game on the road but the Pacers outscore them by four here at Indiana. While the Raptors are 36-45 ATS off a double-digit win the past couple of seasons, the Pacers are 11-3 ATS their last 14, when playing with two day's rest in between games. While it may not be "easy," I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference tonight. 10* |
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04-21-16 | Thunder v. Mavs OVER 196.5 | Top | 131-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC and Dallas to finish OVER the total. Both games at OKC were low-scoring. That didn't really surprise me though. Here's an excerpt from my Game 1 "Blue Chip" selection on the "under" .... "Its playoff time and that means its time for the Thunder to elevate their defensive intensity; I expect the Mavs to have some trouble scoring tonight. While this series has been high-scoring when the games are at Dallas, five of the last seven meetings here at OKC have stayed below the total ... " That game stayed well below the total and Game 2 was even lower-scoring. Those results have worked in our favor this evening though as we're getting a much lower O/U line to work with than we were for the games at OKC. Yet, if you refer to my Game 1 excerpt, you'll notice that I mention "... this series has been high-scoring when the games are at Dallas ... " In fact, the OVER is 5-0 the last five series meetings here and 7-0-1 the last eight, all of those eight games producing 200 or more. The last seven meetings here had scores of 219, 225, 234, 219, 247, 208 and 231. The Thunder can (will) score anywhere while the Mavs score a lot more at home. Look for a faster tempo to lead to a higher-scoring contest than we saw at OKC. 10* |
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04-20-16 | Pistons v. Cavs -10 | Top | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I won with Atlanta yesterday, a team which had narrowly "escaped" with a win on its home floor in Game 1. Having survived that "close call," the Hawks were all business and won Game 2 with relative ease. I see this one setting up much the same way. The Pistons had their chance in Game 1 but squandered it. I expect that result to serve as a "wake up call" for the Cavs. As the Hawks did yesterday, I look for the Cavs to take care of business in Game 2. The Pistons are new to this, as the team hasn't been to the playoffs in some time. They easily could be caught thinking about "what could have been." The Cavs, on the other hand, are playoff veterans and know there's no time for any "reflecting." They're 5-3 ATS (7-1 SU) their last eight, when leading in a playoff series and I look for them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. 10* Personal Favorite |
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04-20-16 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 201 | Top | 103-115 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte and Miami to finish UNDER the total. While Game 1 was high-scoring, I'm expecting the defense to take center stage in Game 2. Admittedly, the Hornets were horrible defensively in the opener. That's not them though and I concur with coach Steve Clifford when he says that he expects a much better defensive effort tonight. When asked about his defense, Clifford responded with the following: "We've got to try harder, for one. We have to have more readiness to play .... We were the ninth-best defensive team in the NBA (in the 2015-16 regular season) .... I think we'll bounce back well. We've been resilient all year. I think we have prideful guys. They want to play better and I think we will." Charlotte has seen the UNDER go 10-7 after allowing 105 or more points while Miami has seen the UNDER go 15-12 after scoring 105 or more. (While a combined 25-19 record may not sound like much, its still a respectable 57%.) Even with the Game 1 result, the Heat have still seen the UNDER go 24-18 here on the season and 26-16 when they've faced a team with a winning record. I expect those stats to improve tonight. 10* |
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04-19-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 72-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Celtics had their chance in Game 1 but couldn't capitalize. In a game that the Hawks led most of the way, Boston had a shot in the fourth quarter. Having squandered that opportunity, I don't think they'll get another one tonight. Homecourt means a great deal to the Hawks and they've got the type of veteran team that knows they can ill afford to let their homecourt advantage slip away. I expect the "close call" in Game 1 to serve as a wake-up call. While the Celtics are 4-9 ATS (6-7 SU) when playing with two day's rest, the Hawks are 5-3 ATS (6-2) when doing so. They'll take care of business here. 10* Main Event |
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04-18-16 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 218.5 | Top | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 39 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State and Houston to finish OVER the total. This O/U number has come down considerably from what it was for the series opener. That's partly due to Game 1 being low-scoring and partly due to the status of the league MVP. As of this writing, Curry remains questionable. While Kerr has been a little less optimistic, Curry last had this to say: "Right now I don't see a scenario where I'll be out ..." Obviously, we'd rather have Curry, already one of the best shooters of all-time, available. However, this team is loaded offensively and it plays at a style where they can score plenty of points, even without Curry. In fact, one could make the argument that Curry's absence would likely lead to a closer game, which would force the Warriors to have to keep scoring the entire way, instead of slowing things right down in the fourth quarter when leading by a wide margin, as we saw Saturday. (That game produced only 40 4th quarter points.) The point that I'm trying to make is that the Warriors will score points, lots of them, regardless of whether or not Curry plays. After getting blown out in Game 1, I also expect the Rockets to bounce back with a much better offensive effort tonight. Recent history supports that prediction, as the Rockets have seen the OVER go 8-3 the last 11 times that they scored 85 or fewer points in their previous game. During that same period, the Warriors have seen the OVER go 18-7-1 after allowing 85 or fewer points. That's a combined 26-10-1 to the Over. Expect a "shootout." 10* Blue Chip |
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04-18-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7 | Top | 87-98 | Win | 100 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. After successfully playing on the Pacers in Game 1, I'm "zig-zagging" and coming back with what will be a desperate Raptors team in Game 2. The Raptors had a great year. They're well-coached, play hard and they've got (arguably) the best backcourt in the East. After getting torched by Paul George in the opener, I expect them to make the necessary adjustments. This entire year has been about advancing out of the first round. They fought too hard to gain homecourt advantage only to drop both games here. While I absolutely respect the Pacers, I expect the Raptors to take their game to another level, bouncing back with a convinging win and cover. 10* |
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04-17-16 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 200 | Top | 91-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami and Charlotte to finish UNDER the total. The playoffs brought an increased level of defensive intensity yesterday (all 4 games went Under) and I expect to see more of that at Miami this afternoon. Charlotte has seen five straight games finish above the total. NONE of those games were against a defense like the one they'll be up against today though. The Heat have held five of their last six opponents (all 3 at home) to double-digits. While the Hornets won a high-scoring game in the finale, three of four regular season meetings finished below the 200 point mark. The Heat have seen the UNDER go 25-12 their last 37 when playing with 'revenge' and 29-13 their last 42 when attempting to avenge a home loss. I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* |
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04-16-16 | Mavs v. Thunder UNDER 210.5 | Top | 70-108 | Win | 100 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC and Dallas to finish UNDER the total. Its playoff time and that means its time for the Thunder to elevate their defensive intensity; I expect the Mavs to have some trouble scoring tonight. While this series has been high-scoring when the games are at Dallas, five of the last seven meetings here at OKC have stayed below the total. The most recent meeting here resulted in a 108-89 victory for the Thunder, a game which had an O/U line of 207. The Thunder only played once all season with three or more day's rest and that game (vs. Indiana 2/19) stayed below the total by double-digits. The Under is 8-3 when the Thunder were home favorites of 9.5 to 12 points and 3-0 when the Mavs were road dogs in the same range. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* blue chip |
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04-16-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -4.5 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. Homecourt means a lot to each of these teams and I expect it to prove significant in Game 1. While the Celtics were 20-21 on the road this season, the Hawks were 27-14 here in Atlanta. The Hawks beat the Celtics by 24 and 11 points in the two meetings here. While the Celtics were 3-9 ATS when playing with two day's rest, the Hawks were 5-2 ATS when doing so. This is a talented, unselfish team and I look for them to improve to 8-4 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. 10* Personal Favorite |
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04-13-16 | Jazz v. Lakers +6.5 | Top | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Jazz need a win in order to give themselves a chance to get in the playoffs. That said, they also know that even if they do win, the chances of them making the playoffs are practically non-existent. That's because they would also require the Rockets to lose at home, against a Kings team without Cousins and Rondo. Armed with that disappointing knowledge, off that devastaing loss to the Mavs, I don't expect their best effort here. Note that Gobert is going to be out and that Favors is banged-up. The Lakers have plenty of motivation. Last game. Kobe's last game. Triple revenge, including a 48-point loss at Utah in the last meeting. They're 8-4 ATS on the season after scoring 85 or fewer points and I look for them to bounce back with at least a cover here. 10* best bet |
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04-13-16 | Nuggets v. Blazers -9.5 | Top | 99-107 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers are talking as if the various playoff scenarios don't matter, Lillard commenting: "I mean, we're in the playoffs. We just want to do the right things every game. That's the biggest thing is play the right way and give ourselves a chance every night, the best chance ... we're in and whoever we end up playing, that's what it is. We want to push ourselves to get as high as we can and finish the season off the right way." However, thats not reality. The reality is that a win will guarantee them the 5th spot and a date against the Clippers instead of 6th and a date with the Thunder. With all due respect to the Clippers, Portland would much rather finish fifth. Of course, they can still lose and get the fifth spot, provided Dallas loses against the Spurs. No need to mess around though. As Lillard said, they want to "finish the season off the right way." The Blazers have dominated Denver here for years. They're 8-3 SU/ATS off an upset loss and I look for them to bounce back with a double-digit win. 10* Personal Favorite |
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04-13-16 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 213 | Top | 109-144 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota and New Orleans to finish OVER the total. These teams have already seen all three meetings finish above the total. The O/U lines have progressively gone up but so have the final scores. The first meeting finished with 213 points. The second produced 218. The teams combined for 222 in the third. With both teams playing their final game, there's little reason to expect much defensive intensity tonight either. The T-Wolves have reached triple-digits in four straight games, giving up triple-digits in three of those. Likewise, the Pelicans have hit triple-digits in three straight, allowing their opponents to score in triple-digits in each of their last five. Not surprisingly, each of the Pelicans' last three have finished above the number. This one should too. 10* blue chip |
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04-12-16 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 203 | Top | 98-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Philadelphia Over the total. Regardless of who sits/starts for the Raptors, I expect this one to have a bit of a "preseason feel" to it. In other words, I don't expect to see all that much defensive intensity. The 76'ers don't play much defense (107.4 ppg allowed on the season) at the best of times, particularly when it gets late in the year. (The Over is now 15-5 their last 20 in April.) The Raptors are playing their reg. season home finale and they no longer have a chance to clinch homecourt throughout. Why not give the fans a treat and put up a big number against the league's worst team. The Over is 22-17 here on the season, 68-58 the past few seasons. Those stats should improve here. 10* |
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04-11-16 | Hornets v. Celtics -6 | Top | 114-100 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. Homecourt means a great deal to both these teams. The Hornets are great at home (12-2 L14) but mediocre/poor on the road. Likewise for the Celtics. They're 10-12 their last 22 on the road but a dominating 18-2 their last 20 at home. That's the best homecourt record in the Eastern Conference, the past few months. That makes this evening's game all the more important. The Celtics know if they win their final two games (both at Boston) than they'll have homecourt advantage in the first round. Its true that the Hornets, who lost at Washington yesterday, have fared pretty well when playing the second of b2b games. However, this is also their fifth game in the past seven. That's a pretty gruelling stretch and I look for it to catch up with them here. With yesterday's double-digit loss, the Hornets are now just 3-8 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. The Celtics, on the other hand, are 7-4-1 ATS (9-3 SU) in 12 home games with an O/U line in that range. I look for homecourt to be the difference here. 10* |
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04-10-16 | Magic v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | Top | 96-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miama and Orlando to finish UNDER the total. While Friday's game at Orlando was high-scoring, I'm expecting a much lower final combined score for tonight's rematch at Orlando. Playing on their home floor, the Magic were able to score. They don't score nearly as many on the road (99.6) as they do at home (104.5) though while the Heat allow considerably fewer (97.9 compared to 99.1) points at home than they do on the road. The Heat, who tend to crank up the defensive intensity when facing a team which beat them in the previous meeting, have seen the UNDER go 60-40 the last 100 times that they were in the revenge role, a lucrative 24-11 the last 35. The UNDER is 7-3 the last 10 times that the Heat were a host in the series, 2-0 the last two. With (all) games on this floor averaging less than 201 points on the season, I believe this number is generously high. 10* |
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04-10-16 | Magic v. Heat -8.5 | Top | 96-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. While he Magic upset them at Orlando on Friday, I expect the Heat to return the favor in convincing fashion this evening. While they're obviously still playing hard, the Magic are long out of the playoff race. The Heat, on the other hand, are still fighting to secure a top four spot and homecourt advantage in the first round. While the Heat have won 11 of 13 at home, the Magic, who are expected to be without both Gordon and Oladipo, have lost 11 of 13 on the road. The Heat have dominated the Magic here for years, including an 11-point win here a few weeks ago. I expect the Heat, 9-6 ATS (10-5 SU) off an upset loss, to crank up the defensive intensity, en route to another double-digit win. 10* |
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04-09-16 | Wolves v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The T-Wolves got a little lucky last game at Sacramento, as Cousins got scratched. Tonight, however, they're up against a better team, at a much tougher venue; I expect their 'good fortune' to run out. The Blazers, 10-3 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest, are 27-12 at home. The T-Wolves, on the other hand, are just 14-26 on the road. While the T-Wolves are just 3-12 against divisional games, the Blazers are 10-4 in divisional play. While the T-Wolves covered here earlier, the Blazers have dominated them here for years. They're 19-1 SU the last 20 meetings, going 14-5-1 ATS. I expect that domination to continue this evening, the home team pulling away with a double-digit win. 10* |
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04-08-16 | Knicks v. 76ers +3 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I won with the 76'ers in their last game and I'm coming back with them again tonight. Neither team will be making the playoffs. Often, in games involving two teams "playing out the string," the team which is more motivated is the team which gets the cover. I believe that will be the 76ers here. For starters, the game is at Philly. Also, the 76ers will be looking for their first "winning streak" since last March, which will add some incentive. Additionally, the Knicks have beaten them all three games. That means that they'll be trying to avoid the sweep here, which should also add some motivation. The fact that the last meeting (on MLK Day) was lost in double OT may have kept that game in their memories. I believe they'll be hungry to avenge that loss and to avoid the sweep. The Knicks, who are only 1-5 their last six overall, are 7-9 ATS against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season; the 76ers are 10-7 ATS (against losing teams) during the same stretch. I expect them to improve to 5-2 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. 10* |
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04-07-16 | Wolves v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The T-Wolves shocked the Warriors a couple of nights ago, rallying to beat them in overtime. That victory proved that they can beat any team in the leauge. That said, they've been inconsistent and they're still only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS their last six games. I expect them to find a highly motivated Kings team waiting for them in the second last game ever to be played here. With their final home game coming against OKC, the Kings know that this is their best chance to reward the faithful with a final victory. While they came up short vs. Portland on Tuesday, the Kings have been playing well recently. They're 4-3 SU their last seven, going an impressive 6-1 ATS. Playing with "triple-revenge" and looking to avoid getting swept by the T-Wolves should provide them with added motivation tonight. While the T-Wolves are 2-6 ATS (1-7 SU) as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, the Kings are 3-2 ATS (4-1 SU) as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10* |
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04-06-16 | Rockets v. Mavs OVER 207.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston and Dallas to finish OVER the total. The Mavs have seen their past four games fall below the total. The Rockets have seen three of their past four do the same. However, I expect the offenses to come to life this evening. Both teams have had the past two days off and that's been a profitable 'over' spot for each of them. Dallas has seen the OVER go 8-4 when playing with exactly two day's rest. Houston has seen the OVER go an even better 9-2 when doing so. That's a combined 17-6 OVER mark, when combining those records. The Rockets have been a profitable 'over' team on the road all season. Games away from Houston have seen the OVER go 29-14-1. That includes a 3-0 OVER record when they've been listed as road favorites of three or fewer points. Going back further finds the OVER at 15-7 the last 22 times that they were listed as road favorites of three or less. During the same stretch, Dallas has seen the OVER go 12-2 when listed as a home underdog of three or fewer points. This is a crucial game for both teams and neither is going to "quit." I expect both teams to hit triple-digits, the OVER improving to 6-2 when the Rockets played a road game where the O/U line ranged from 205 to 209.5. 10* |
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04-06-16 | Pelicans v. Celtics -14 | Top | 97-104 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. I successfully played against the Pelicans yesterday and I'm going against them again tonight. New Orleans is dealing with MAJOR injury issues. To their credit, they've still fought hard and have actually won a few games. That said, they don't have the talent on the floor right now to compete with a complete team like Boston, particularly not when playing the second of back-to-back games. With potentially winnable home games against the Lakers and Suns on deck, I feel it will be easy for them to "pack it in" at Boston tonight. The Celtics, who had the past two days off and who also have tomorrow off, are 7-3-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. New Orleans, on the other hand, is 3-6 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the same range. The Celtics beat a much healthier/stronger Pelicans team by 18 points at New Orleans back in December. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect an even bigger blowout tonight. 10* |
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04-05-16 | Blazers v. Kings OVER 221.5 | Top | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Sacramento and Portland to finish OVER the total. This season's first three meetings all stayed below the total but I expect that to change tonight. The Kings have seen each of their last three games eclipse the number, those games averaging greater than 223 points each. Now, they'll take on a Portland team which has scored 110 or more points in three straight games and 105 or more in five straight and nine of 10. The Blazers, who gave up 136 points on Sunday, have seen the OVER go 12-8 off a double-digit loss, 6-4 when playing on the road when the O/U line was 210 or greater and 5-2 when listed as a road favorite of three or less. I successfully played on the Blazers 'over' the number on Sunday and I'm expecting another shootout here. 10* Blue Chip |
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04-05-16 | Pelicans v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I believe this game will mean more to the 76ers than it will to the Pelicans. Philly knows it needs one win over its final five games to avoid matching the 72/73 76ers for the worst record over a full NBA season. While they will have a couple more chances, the 76ers also know this is likely their best chance at earning that victory. Both teams are dealing with injury issues. However, the Pelicans' injury situation is far worse. To their credit, they've still played well of late. I expect it to catch up with them here though. While both teams had yesterday off, the 76ers also have the next two days off while the Pelicans will play at Boston tomorrow. That said, I expect the 76ers to leave it all on the floor while they look to to take advantage of a rare winnable game. 10* Personal Favorite |
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04-04-16 | Villanova v. North Carolina UNDER 150 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Villanova and UNC to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams shot well on Sunday and both are obviously very capable of putting up a lot of points. Both defenses were also stingy and I believe that both are better than many may realize. That said, I feel this O/U line will prove to be too high. The Tar Heels limited Syracuse to just 40 percent from the field and 32 percent from three-point range, while also forcing the Orange into 10 turnovers with just five assists. The Wildcats were even stingier. They kept Oklahoma to 31.7% of its field goals and 22.2% from 3-point range. Oklahoma, which had scored 82, 85, 77 and 80 points in its previous four NCAA tournament games, would score only 51 points. That was the fewest number of points the Sooners scored all year. Buddy Hield, the player everyone was talking about, would finish with a mere nine points, his second lowest-scoring output of the season. Both teams saw their conference tourney final stay well below the total. UNC combined with UVA for only 118 points, staying below the number by roughly 20. Villanova would combine with Seton Hall for 136. I expect this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* |
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04-04-16 | Villanova +3 v. North Carolina | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Obviously, both teams are playing really well. I believe that the Wildcats are superior defensively though and that their advantage on that side of the ball will ultimately make the difference. Yes, the Tar Heels averaged more points per game than the Wildcats this season. Villanova has topped the 85 point mark in four of five NCAA Tournament games though, including 95 last time out, so I don't believe the Wildcats are giving anything away there. (Villanova has connected on 58.2% of its field goals during the tournament, compared to 51.8% for UNC.) However, as stated, its on the other side of the ball that the Cats really have an edge. UNC has allowed an average of 71.8 ppg during the tournament, pretty close to the 69.8 ppg (71.3 ppg on the road) it allowed on the season. On the other hand, Villanova is allowing a mere 63.3 ppg on the season and that number has dropped to a paltry 60.6 in the Big Dance. Therefore, its worth noting that UNC is only 1-2 SU/ATS its last three games against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game, splitting its last two against UVA while losing its last one against Louisville. (Syracuse was allowing 64.6 ppg coming into Sunday's game, so didn't qualify.) The Wildcats are 7-0 (5-1-1 ATS) the last seven times they played a game with an O/U line in the 150 to 159.5 range. That includes a 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS record this season, with a 5-point win at Butler and a 14-point win at Creighton. They're a perfect 5-0 ATS in the Big Dance and I look for them to improve on those stats Monday night. 10* Main Event |
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04-03-16 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 223.5 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State and Portland to finish OVER the total. Both these teams have seen the majority of their recent games fall below the total. I expect a date with each other to get the offenses going. This season's three previous meetings have all finished above the number. Those games had final combined scores of 236, 232 and 240. While this O/U line may seem high, consider that the most recent meeting had an O/U line of 229.5. The Blazers have seen the OVER go 22-17 on the road this season, 9-6 their last 15 against winning teams and 7-5 when they're off three or more consecutive wins. As you know, the Warriors finally lost at home last time out. They've seen the OVER go 4-2 when off an upset loss, 2-1 the last three in that situation. (Even the game that stayed below the total had 227 combined points.) Look for the offense to return to form, the OVER improving to 32-20-1 when the Warriors were matched up against another team which averages 99 or more points per game. 10* Blue Chip |
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04-03-16 | Mavs v. Wolves +3 | Top | 88-78 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Mavs have won all three of this season's meetings, I look for the T-Wolves to step up and avoid the sweep this afternoon. The Mavs have won three straight. Combine that with a 2-5 mark over Houston's last seven games and Dallas finds itself right back in the playoff race. The Mavs are currently tied with Utah for the final spot with Houston hot on their heels. Speaking of Houston, that's who the Mavs play next. Given that they've dominated Minnesota again this season, I believe it will be easy for the Mavs to get caught looking ahead here and that they could easily overlook the T-Wolves. While they got a strong game from Barea last time out, the Mavs are still without starting point guard Deron Williams. Chandler also remains out while Felton missed last game. Off an upset win at Detroit, note that the Mavs are only 5-8 SU/ATS off an upset victory. Look for the revenge-minded Wolves to thrive in the spoiler role this afternoon, as they improve to 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 205 to 209.5. 10* best bet |
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04-02-16 | Syracuse v. North Carolina UNDER 147 | Top | 66-83 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Syracuse and UNC to finish UNDER the total. With all due respect to the UNC offense, which is indeed very good, I believe this number will prove to be too high. As you're surely aware, the Orange are here on the strength of their defense. In four NCAA tournament games, they've allowed 51, 50, 61 and 62 points. They faced some pretty good offenses too. Dayton was averaging better than 73 points before facing Syracuse. Middle Tennessee State was also averaging better than 73 points (and 76.8 ppg its past five games) before facing the Orange. Gonzaga was averaging better than 79 ppg and Virginia was averaging more than 71. Admittedly, at 83 ppg, the UNC offense is better than any of those. Still, Syracuse has held every opponent to well below its season average and I believe its capable of doing the same here. Of course, the Orange are going to need to do that, as they can't afford to get into a shootout with UNC; Syracuse has failed to score more than 75 points in 11 straight games. The Orange have averaged only 67.5 ppg their last 10. While the earlier meeting finished at 75-70, the Cuse defense has been playing much better since. The same can arguably be said of UNC. While they got into some high-scoring games against Notre Dame and Indiana, the Tar Heels limited their previous six opponents to 72 or fewer points, four of them to 67 or less, including holding Notre Dame to only 47. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* |
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04-02-16 | Raptors v. Spurs -10.5 | Top | 95-102 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Some of you may recall that I had a big play on the Raptors when they upset the Spurs back in December. This one sets up much differently though. For starters, we're now at San Antonio instead of Toronto. That's significant as the Spurs have been "very good" on the road but "unbeatable" here at San Antonio. Having had the past two days off, the Spurs are well-rested; they're 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) when playing with two day's rest. Toronto, on the other hand, is off a hard fought, physical victory at Memphis last night. In addition to the b2b spot, this will now be the Raptors' sixth game in the past nine days. That's not the type of lead-up you want when playing at San Antonio and facing a revenge-minded Spurs team. San Antonio, 10-5 ATS (13-2 SU!) the last 15 times it played with 'revenge,' has dominated the Raptors here over the years, including a 10-point win here last season. I expect another double-digit victory here. 10* Personal Favorite |
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04-02-16 | Villanova -2 v. Oklahoma | Top | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 142 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Its true that Oklahoma hammered the Wildcats back in December, by far Villanova's worst loss of the season. However, I'm expecting a vastly different result on Saturday. The Wildcats have arguably been more impressive than any team in the tournament thus far. They topped the 85-point mark in each of their first three games, winning by 30, 19 and 23 points. Last time out, they showed they can also dominate defensively, limiting a very good Kansas team to 59 points. The Sooners have been impressive too but arguably not quite as much. They have yet to win a game by more than 14 points and they barely squeaked past VCU in the second round. Buddy Hield is indeed an excellent player and is sure to put up some big numbers. I believe that the Wildcats are the more complete overall team though and I believe that their superior defense will ultimately be the difference. While the Sooners average three more points per game on offense, the Wildcats allow seven fewer points per game. (Oklahoma allows 70.4 ppg, Villanova allows a mere 63.6.) The last time that the Wildcats faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting was when they played at Providence on 2.6. The Friars had upset the Wildcats at Villanova on 1/24. Revenge-minded Villanova went on the road and hammered them by double-digits, beating them again, for good measure, in the Big East Tourney. Look for them to get some more payback Saturday, covering the small number along the way. 10* |
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04-01-16 | Raptors v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. While its true they're still dealing with some signifcant injuries, the Grizzlies arguably need this game more than the Raptors and I expect them to provide us with a highly motivated effort tonight. Off Wednesday's 109-105 loss against Denver on Wednesday, note that the Grizzlies are 7-3-1 ATS off an upset loss, 14-7 ATS after scoring 105 or more points AND 17-5-1 ATS after allowing 105 or more points. While both teams had Thursday off, the Grizzlies also have tomorrow night off, while the Raptors will be playing a big game at San Antonio. The Raptors, 1-2 ATS the last three times that they played the front end of b2b games, are just 1-4 ATS as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. Grab the points. 10* best bet |
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04-01-16 | Magic v. Bucks -2.5 | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I won with the Bucks on Wednesday and I'm coming right back with them again tonight. While the Bucks had yesterday off, the Magic were busy playing at Indiana. To their credit, the Magic won that game by 20 points, their third consecutive victory. They're only 5-12 SU when playing the second of b2b games though and this will also be their third game in the past four days. While the Magic remain a poor 12-27 away from Orlando, the Bucks are a respectable 22-15 here at Milwaukee. Not surprisingly, the home team has won and covered both meetings this season. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I look for another win and cover for the Bucks, as they improve to 20-11 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-31-16 | Clippers v. Thunder -15 | Top | 117-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. After successfully playing on the Clippers in b2b games, I unsuccessfully went against them last night. That's not going to stop me from doing so again tonight though. Despite last night's easy win, a game which allowed them to rest their stars in the fourth quarter, the Clippers, still without Griffin, are expected to give Paul, Jordan and Redick the night off tonight. LA is basically locked in the fourth seed already and will now be playing its fourth game in five nights. While I successfully played against the Thunder when they lost to Detroit last time out, they're still playing very well right now, with eight wins in their last nine. In their last game here at OKC, they hammered the Spurs by 19 points. Facing a depleted Clipper lineup, all signs point to another blowout tonight. 10* |
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03-31-16 | George Washington +2.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 76-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. These are both very good teams and both are (obviously) playing very well right now. Both are led by a star junior forward, Alec Peters and Tyler Cavanaugh have arguably been the two best players in the tournament. Both are very well-coached. Both teams play well on both sides of the ball. While the Crusaders are indeed very stingy, the Colonials are 2-1 SU/ATS against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. I believe that the venue will favor the Colonials. George Washington is only about 225 miles from NYC, a hop-skip-and a jump up the I-95. The Colonials will have plenty of fan support. While I expect GW to win the game "outright," I'm happy to grab any extra points that are being offered. Valpo is off a 2-point win last game and had another 2-point win five games before that. GW has seen five of seven decided by single digits including a 2-point win over Hofstra. GW coach Mike Lonergan received a basketball net a few weeks ago from a friend, a message to "cut down the nets in March." "Lonergan noted: "I haven't cut down nets in a while, since I was at Vermont I think. So it's great to be in this situation." The Colonials have been using that net as a good luck charm, hanging it in their locker room. When its all said and done, I expect Lonergan's crew to be cutting them down. 10* |
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03-30-16 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 202 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State and Utah to finish OVER the total. With all due respect to the Utah defense, which admittedly is pretty stingy, I believe this O/U line is too low. Both meetings at Golden State fell below the number, as the Jazz had trouble scoring there. However, with both teams putting up points, the game here at Utah had an O/U line of 202 and finished with 209 points. In fact, the OVER is 3-0 the last three times that the Warriors played here, each of those games producing AT LEAST 209, both teams hitting triple-digits in all three of those games. I expect both teams to score again tonight. The Jazz average a respectable 99.2 ppg here and they know that they may need to exceed that average if they want to compete with the Warriors, who average a whopping 114.7 ppg on the road. Including the earlier meeting here, the Warriors have seen the OVER go 23-15 on the road, including a 5-3 mark as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. Including the earlier meeting here, the OVER is also 13-9 the last 22 times that the Jazz played a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 point range. I expect those stats to improve tonight as this one proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* blue chip |
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03-30-16 | Morehead State v. Nevada UNDER 146 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Morehead State and Nevada to finish UNDER the total. Game 1 was extremely high-scoring. With the series shifting to Reno, I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair in Game 2. Nevada's Cameron Oliver and Elijah Foster both got in some early foul trouble in the opener and that allowed Morehead State’s Lyonell Gaines, DeJuan Marrero and Anthony Elechi to dominate the paint and combine for 51 points. Playing at home, I expect a much better effort from the Wolfpack, in terms of defending the paint. Nevada entered Monday's opener allowing 74.6 ppg on the road. The Wolfpack only allow 68.4 ppg here at home though, holding visiting teams to a mere 38.7% FG percenage here. Allowing 68.3 ppg overall, Morehead State's defense is also arguably better than we saw Monday. While Nevada has seen the UNDER go 6-4 after scoring 80 or more points, the Eagles have seen the UNDER go 6-3 after scoring 80 or more, 36-18 (excluding pushes and counting only lined games) their last 54 in that situation. I expect those stats to improve tonight as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* CBI G.O.Y |
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03-30-16 | Suns v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Suns managed a cover at Minnesota last time out, losing by 'only' five points. That hasn't been 'normal' though as two of their previous three road games resulted in losses of 20 or greater points and as they're an ugly 12-25 ATS (7-30 SU) away from Phoenix overall. The Suns sometimes bring their 'A game' against winning teams from the West. However, they rarely do so against losing teams or against teams from the East. They're only 9-18 ATS in non-conference play and just 9-21 ATS against sub .500 teams. The Bucks are 4-2-1 ATS (5-2 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or more and they're also 7-3 ATS when off three or more consecutive losses. They're well rested and they have tomorrow off. Look for them to improve to 19-11 ATS against teams with a losing record. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-30-16 | Clippers v. Wolves +5.5 | Top | 99-79 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I won with the Clippers in each of their last two games. However, I believe that this will be a good spot to go against them. The T-Wolves are playing well recently. They won their last game, their third victory in the last four games. They've won five of nine overall and all four of those losses came by single digits, three of them by five or less. In other words, they'd be 8-1 ATS their last nine games, if they'd been getting at least +5.5 in each. (Their actual record is 6-3 ATS during that time.) The T-Wolves have also played the Clippers tough this season. They beat them the last meeting (at LA) and lost by only four in the game here at Minnesota. Both teams had yesterday off. The T-Wolves also have tomorrow off. On the other hand, the Clippers have a big game at OKC on deck tomorrow. The Clippers are just 4-7 ATS their last 11 against teams with a losing record and they're only 9-14 ATS off a double-digit win. Conversely, the T-Wolves are 15-9 ATS their last 24 against teams which score 99 or more points per game, 14-8 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater and 12-4 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. I like their chances of improving on those stats tonight and am grabbing the points. 10* best bet |
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03-29-16 | Thunder v. Pistons +3 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. With an O/U line currently sitting at around 215.5 of 216, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. I believe that will work in Detroit's favor, as will the schedule and venue. While OKC was busy beating Toronto yesterday, the Pistons have had the past two days off. Even with yesterday's victory, the Thunder are only 16-25-2 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, including 9-12-1 ATS on the road. Overall, they're still only 12-21-2 ATS on the road. On the other hand, the Pistons are 22-13-2 ATS (24-13 SU) at home and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Going back a little further finds them at 7-1-1 ATS (8-1 SU) the last nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or higher, 15-5-1 ATS (17-4 SU!) their last 21 in that situation. While the Pistons are off a loss (as a small favorite) vs. Atlanta, they'd previously won five straight. Also, they're 11-2 SU/ATS off an "upset" loss this season. Last year's game here was close, the Pistons easily covering. OKC was favored by 10 and won by only two. I expect AT LEAST another cover this evening. 10* best bet |
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03-29-16 | BYU v. Valparaiso -1.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Valparaiso. These teams first met in 1945, Valparaiso finishing on top. Four years later, in 1949, BYU returned the favor. Now, nearly 70 years later, I believe it's time for another win for the Crusaders. While most of those results are ancient history, its still worth mentioning that the Cougars have NOT fared well as small underdogs on a neutral court. Indeed, they're an ugly 1-11 the last 12 times that they were listed as a neutral court underdog of three or fewer points. During the same stretch, the Crusaders were 5-1 SU/ATS as a neutral court favorite of three or fewer points. In this game, BYU has the superior offensive numbers while Valpariso has a big edge defensively. BYU is allowing 72.8 ppg overall, 75.4 on the road. Over their last five games, the Cougars are allowing an average of 77.2. On the other hand, the Crusaders are allowing just 62.2 ppg. While Valparaiso holds opposing teams to 38.7% from the field on the road, the Cougars allowing opposing teams to connect on 43.6% of their shots, when playing away from home. I look for that defensive edge to be the difference this evening. BYU is an ugly 9-17 ATS (12-14 SU) its last 26 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. Considering that the Cougars are 74-32 overall during that stretch, one can really see that they don't fare well against top tier defenses. During that span, Valparaiso is 17-6 SU against teams which average 77 or more points per game. So, while the Cougars have struggled against good defenses, the Crusaders have not had the same problem against good offenses. Remember, Valpariso held St. Mary's to just 44 points last time out. I expect the Crusaders to again dicate them tempo, en route to another win and cover. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-28-16 | Celtics v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 90-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. I won with the Clippers yesterday and am coming right back with them again today. This line is a little lower than it could have been, due to the fact that LA played yesterday. I'm not overly concerned with that though, as all b2b spots aren't the same. In this case, the Clippers, who are 10-6 SU when playing the second of b2b games, are off a relatively easy victory and it came during the afternoon. They also had the previous two days off, prior to yesterday's game. Again, all b2b spots aren't created equal. While the Celtics had yesterday off, they're only 18-18 on the road, giving up 103.7 ppg. The Clippers, on the other hand, are 24-12 at home, allowing less than 99. While they've won four in a row, the Celtics are only 4-9 ATS after three or more consecutive victories. With the Clippers at 16-9 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, I look for another win/cover for LA tonight. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-28-16 | Towson +6.5 v. Oakland | Top | 72-90 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Towson. The Golden Grizzlies had an excellent year and are certainly a solid squad. I believe the same can be said of the Tigers though and feel this line is a little on the high side. Admittedly, Oakland's conference and schedule was a little tougher. The Tigers can't help what conference they play in though and were competitive in the vast majority of games they played in. Note that six of their losses came by six points or less, five of those by three or less. Oakland, which badly wanted to be at the Big Dance, is only 2-7 SU on a neutral court the past few seasons. Including their loss against Wright State in the conf. tourney, the Golden Grizzlies, who haven't played in three full weeks and who saw two of their final four games decided by four or fewer points, are also 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games. I look for this one to come down to the wire and am grabbing the points. 10* best bet |
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03-28-16 | Nets v. Heat UNDER 212 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Brooklyn and Miami to finish UNDER the total. These teams have seen all three of this season's meetings finish above the total. However, none of those games had O/U lines nearly as high as this one. In fact, those three games averaged 206 points and two of them would have finished below tonight's much higher total. Going back further finds that 19 of the last 20 meetings in this series have produced 202 or fewer combined points. While the Nets have put up some decent points recently, they still average just 98.7 per game (98.4 on the road) on the season. Tonight, they'll be facing one of the stingier defenses in the league. While the Heat have seen the UNDER go 2-1 as home favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range, the Nets have seen the UNDER go 8-4 as road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range. I look for those stats to improve as this one ends up lower scoring than most will be expecting. 10* best bet |
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03-27-16 | Notre Dame +10.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 74-88 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I successfully played on both these teams in the last round. So, I got the matchup that I was hoping for and expecting. I like how it sets up for the Irish. Obviously, the Tar Heels are very strong. The Irish know all about that, as UNC hammered in the 3/11 game. The first meeting was a different story, however, as the Irish won that 2/6 game by a score of 80-76. That result should give them the confidence to know that they can compete. I also really like the fashion that the Irish have been winning their games in this tournament. They've got a "never say die" attitude and the comeback victories have them believing that destiny is on their side. Prior to the 3/11 blowout, four straight meetings had been decided by eight or fewer points. I look for this one to be much closer than many are expecting and am grabbing all those generous points. 10* Elite 8 G.O.Y. |
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03-27-16 | Rockets v. Pacers -2 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting the Pacers at a very low line in part due to the fact that they played yesterday. I'm not worried about the b2b spot though and feel that the low number is providing us with excellent value. Lets not forget that the Pacers remain a healthy 22-13 at home, far better than the Rockets' 16-21 mark away from Houston. While the Rockets give up more than 109 ppg (47.6% shooting!) on the road, the Pacers permit only 98 at home. The Pacers are 10-5-1 ATS (12-4 SU) the last 16 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. Playing with revenge, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-27-16 | Syracuse v. Virginia UNDER 123.5 | Top | 68-62 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Syracuse and Virginia to finish UNDER the total. This number may initially seem low. However, considering how stingy these defenses are, I believe that it'll actually prove to be too high. Through three tourney games, the Orange have allowed 51, 50 and 60 points. The Cavs have allowed 71 or fewer points in eight straight games. They're allowing an average of 62 in the tourney (despite playing some high-scoring teams) and a mere 59.8 on the season. When these teams met last March, they combined for only 106 points, a 59-47 victory for the Cavs. I'm expecting a similar final number here. 10* Elite 8 O/U T.O.Y. |
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03-26-16 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 203.5 | Top | 115-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte and Milwaukee to finish OVER the total. With both teams off a loss yesterday, I believe this number is a little low. These teams have seen the OVER go a combined 17-13 when playing the second of b2b games. (Not huge but still a respectable 57%.) Better still, the Hornets have seen the OVER go 18-11 after scoring 105 or more points while the Bucks have seen the OVER go 16-7 off a double-digit loss. I expect a relatively fast paced game with both teams having an excellent shot at hitting triple-digits. 10* Blue Chip |
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03-26-16 | Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 145.5 | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Villanova and Kansas to finish UNDER the total. I played on Villanova to finish 'under' the total in Rd. 1. (*Although the final score did stay below the closing total, I counted it as a loser for my records as results would have varied, based on when/where one played.) The Wildcats, who are allowing only 63.8 ppg on the season, were indeed dominant defensively that game, holding UNC-Asheville to just 56 points. They've held all three opponents to less than 70 points. Of course, the Villanova offense has been garnering all the attention, as its been firing on all cylinders. The Cats will face an extremly stingy Kansas team today though, one which just held Maryland and UConn, teams which both average well into the 70s, to just 63 and 61 points, respectively. Even with this week's results, the UNDER is still 14-8 when Villanova played on a neutral court the past few seasons. During that span, Kansas has seen the UNDER go 18-11 in neutral court games including 5-1 when listed as a favorite of three or less. Bottom line is that both defenses are better than many realize. Villanova holds opposing teams to 40.4% shooting while Kansas allows teams to shoot just 39.7% and 39.4% on the road. The number is generous and I look for the final score to be lower than most will be expecting. 10* blue chip |
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03-26-16 | Oklahoma v. Oregon +1 | Top | 80-68 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oregon. I won with the Ducks against Duke and I'm coming right back with them again against Oklahoma. As I mentioned in the Duke game, the Ducks are the real deal. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "... While many may not yet agree, the Ducks (30-6) are a legit #1 seed. With 10 straight victories, ALL of them by a minimum of five points, the Ducks are arguably playing as well as any team in the country ... " Later, I went on to mention that the Ducks tend to fare well against "teams that like to push the pace," which is also applicable with Oklahoma. "...The Blue Devils tend to push the pace that plays into Oregon's strength. The Ducks are 11-3 ATS (13-1 SU!) their last 14 against teams which average 77 or more points per game..." Add another victory to those numbers after the thrasing of Duke. The Sooners, on the other hand, are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 against teams that score 77 or more points per game, a surprisingly poor 4-13 ATS their last 17 against teams with a winning record overall. The Ducks have won 12 of 13 games when the O/U line was in the 150s. I expect them to again prove that they're the "real deal." 10* |
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03-25-16 | Nuggets v. Lakers +2.5 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. I successfully played on the Lakers when they upset the Grizzlies a few nights ago. The next night, I successfully played against them when they lost at Phoenix. They're back home tonight though in what is arguably their best shot at one final victory. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. While he's a bit banged-up, Kobe has always dominated Denver. In fact, his 31.9 ppg against the Nuggets is his most against any Western Conference opponent. Speaking of banged-up, the Nuggets remain without Chandler and Gallinari. Faried is also questionable, having missed the past four games. While they know they haven't played well "as a team" lately, the Lakers know that they have the talent to compete with this team. Perhaps for the last time all season, I look for them to rise to the occasion with their best game. 10* best bet |
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03-25-16 | Indiana v. North Carolina -5.5 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 122 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNC. The Hoosiers just took down a "big name" program in Kentucky. They're facing another big name program here and this one figures to be a much tougher matchup for them. The Tar Heels are the real deal, perhaps the best team in the country at the moment. Well-coached. Talented. Experienced. Huge. All of those are likely to come into play Friday night, particularly that last one. Indeed, the Tar Heels have a serious size advantage and will have a big edge in the post. The Hoosiers aren't entirely healthy. Losing James Blackmon a couple of months ago really hurt their backcourt depth and Johnson (and Morgan) is currently a bit banged-up. Indiana coach Crean said this of UNC: "North Carolina is at another level ... because they have so many forwards that can run. They’re five to six deep at the four and five positions and they can all get out and run." I expect the Heels to step up their defensive intensity, picking up the win and cover and again showing that they're going to be tough for anyone to beat. 10* Friday Main Event |
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03-25-16 | Gonzaga v. Syracuse +4.5 | Top | 60-63 | Win | 100 | 62 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on SYRACUSE. The Orange are getting very little respect and I believe they're seriously under-valued. True, Gonzaga has a far better overall record. That doesn't tell the whole story though. This is a battle-tested Syracuse team, one which has squared off against many of the top teams in the country. Indeed, the Orange have played eight games against teams in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has played only one game against a team in the Sweet 16, a loss against Texas A&M, a team which Syracuse beat the very next day. So, comparing the overall records isn't exactly relevant. Gonzaga is indeed a very good team, worthy of much respect. The Orange have arugably been as dominant as any team in the tournament though. Don't believe it? Check this out. The Orange have allowed 50 and 51 points. That average of 50.5 allowed, is the fewest ppg of any Sweet 16 team. They've won their two games by a combined 44 points and that 22-point average margin of victory is tied for second. As Syracuse's Frank Howard pointed out: "Sometimes our games aren’t the most fun to watch maybe. But ... Winning’s fun." The Orange are 10-2 ATS over the years as a neutral court underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. I really like the way they're playing right now and expect all their "big game experience" to serve them well on Friday night. 10* Sweet 16 G.O.Y. |
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03-25-16 | Hornets v. Pistons -2 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. I successfully played on the Hornets when they beat the Spurs and then successfully against them when they failed to cover against the Nets. While I respect the work they've done in recent weeks, I'm going against them again here. These teams met twice earlier in the season, the Hornets winning both times. Both those meetings were at Charlotte though, while tonight's is at Detroit. Big difference. Even though they've been hot for quite some time overall, the Hornets are still just 14-19 away from Charlotte. The Pistons also struggle on the road but they're an impressive 23-12 here at Detroit. The Pistons know this a chance to get some 'payback' against the Pistons (and to avoid the sweep) while putting some ground between themselves and the idle Bulls. (They're currently 1.5 games up on the Bulls for 8th, 0.5 games back of Indiana for 7th.) The Pistons are playing with confidence right now. They've won four straight, scoring 115 or more in three of those. While they're stepping up in class here, I expect them to make it five in a row. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-25-16 | Iowa State v. Virginia UNDER 141.5 | Top | 71-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on Iowa State and Virginia to finish UNDER the total. While the Cyclones admittedly have a very good offense, they're up against an extremely stingy defense here. Indeed, the Cavs allow a mere 59.5 ppg, 60.7 away from home. None of their last seven opponents have hit the 70-point mark. While the Cyclones can and do score, they showed they can also play some defense last round, limiting Ark-Little-Rock to 61 points. In fact, they've now allowed 61 or fewer points in three of their last six. The Cavs will do their best to slow the tempo. They've seen the UNDER go 10-5 against teams which score 77 or more points per game including 6-2 the last eight. The Cyclones faced three teams which were allowing 64 or fewer points (when the teams faced each other) and two of those games stayed below the total. I feel the number is generously high and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 10* blue chip |
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03-24-16 | Duke v. Oregon -3 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 38 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oregon. While I backed Duke against Yale, this is a far more difficult matchup. While many may not yet agree, the Ducks (30-6) are a legit #1 seed. With 10 straight victories, ALL of them by a minimum of five points, the Ducks are arguably playing as well as any team in the country. Even when I played on Duke last game, I acknowledged that the Blue Devils lacked depth. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "....Admittedly, the Blue Devils don't have the depth that they'd like, a problem that may rear its head as they advance into the later rounds. The starting lineup is still considerably stronger than the one they'll face today though ..." Thats not the case here though and I do expect that "problem to rear its head." Prior to facing UNC-Wilmington and Yale, the Blue Devils had lost four of seven games. The Blue Devils tend to push the pace that plays into Oregon's strength. The Ducks are 11-3 ATS (13-1 SU!) their last 14 against teams which average 77 or more points per game. They're excited for a chance to beat "mighty Duke" and I look for them to make the most of the opportunity. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-24-16 | Maryland v. Kansas UNDER 144.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 38 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Maryland and Kansas to finish UNDER the total. While I respect both offenses, I also really respect both these defenses. The Jayhawks elevated their defensive intensity aganst UConn, limiting the Huskies to 61 points while holding them to 33.9% shooting from the field. Likewise, the Terps were extremely stingy last time out. They held Hawaii to 60 points, limiting the Warriors to 32.9% shooting from the field. Overall, the Terps allow 66.3 ppg, the Jayhawks allowing only slightly more at 67.9. Despite those solid defensive stats, we're still getting an O/U number in the 140s. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 23-10 (11-3 this season) the past couple of seasons, when Maryland has played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. During that span, Kansas has seen the UNDER go 20-11-2 when it played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. While the Jayhawks (82 ppg) can obviously score with the best of them, the Terps have seen the UNDER go 7-1 the last eight times that they faced a team which scores 77 or more per game. Look for those stats to improve Thursday night, as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* Sweet 16 T.O.Y. |
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03-24-16 | Pelicans v. Pacers -12.5 | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
10* Pacers. Analysis before 7am PST |
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03-23-16 | Lakers v. Suns -5 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. I won with the Lakers last night. They were playing at home and catching a depleted Suns team playing the second of b2b games. The shoe is on the other foot tonight though as now the Lakers are on the road, playing the second of b2b games. As the Lakers did last night, I expect the Suns to use the situation to their advantage. While the Lakers put up 107 points last night, they're only 7-13 ATS (4-16 SU) after hitting 105 or more in their previous game. They're also just 1-13 SU when playing the second of b2b games. The Suns recently beat the Lakers at LA. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to do so again, covering the relatively small number along the way. 10* personal favorite |
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03-23-16 | Mavs v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. These teams just met at Dallas a few nights ago, the Mavs winning 132-120. With tonight's rematch being played at Portland, I expect the revenge-minded Blazers to return the favor. While the Mavs, who were slight underdogs for the 3/20 game, are 4-7 SU/ATS off an "upset" win, the Blazers are 8-2 ATS off an "upset" loss. They're also 23-15 ATS when playing with "revenge" and 9-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Dallas, on the other hand, is 3-8 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Mavs are below 500 on the road while the Blazers are 21-12 here at Portland. The Mavs are 1-4 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Blazers are 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. I see them improving on those stats tonight. 10* annihilator |
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03-23-16 | Heat v. Spurs UNDER 196 | Top | 88-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami and San Antonio to finish UNDER the total. I lost with the Heat 'under' the total last night but I'm fully willing to come back with the same play tonight. The Heat allow the third fewest points (97.8) per road game in the league. The Spurs allow the fewest at home, at just 90.5. While these teams played a high-scoring game against each other at Miami last month, last year's two meetings finished with only 176 and 183 points, respectively. While the Heat have been on an 'over' streak, the Spurs have seen four of their last five stay below the total. They limited Golden State to a mere 79 points their last game on this floor. With the Under at 28-12 the last 40 times that the Heat attempted to avenge an earlier home loss, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* blue chip |
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03-23-16 | Jazz +2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. Admittedly, the Jazz are better at home than they are on the road. They're still capable of winning on the road though, as their last game resulted in a 94-85 win at Milwaukee. With the schedule in their favor, I look for the Jazz to have the advantage again tonight. While Utah comes in rested, the Rockets fought hard, only to come up short, at OKC last night. That's noteworthy as Houston is only 6-11 ATS (7-10 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. While the Rockets would obviously like to avenge a closs loss at Utah last month, they're just 11-16 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. While the Rockets have dropped three of four, the Jazz have won five of six. The Rockets are allowing 106.8 ppg their last five. The Jazz are allowing 86 ppg their last five. Big difference. The Jazz are playing better basketball right now and I look for it to continue here. 10* best bet |
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03-23-16 | Grand Canyon v. Coastal Carolina -3 | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on COASTAL CAROLINA. Grand Canyon has already accomplished a lot, winning its first two postseason games ever. Those both came at home though and GCU will now be making its longest road trip of the entire season. While the Antelopes may have a "bigger name" for a head coach (Dan Majerle) I believe that the Chanticleers bring a little more to the table and I look for their homecourt advantage to prove the difference. The Chanticleers were 13-3 here and that included a 2-0 SU/ATS mark in lined games. They're now 10-1 SU / 9-2 ATS their last 11 home lined games. GCU has a winning road record but actually got outscored by an average of 72.4 to 72 on the road this season. On the other hand, Coastal Carolina outscored opposing teams by a 79.4 to 63.4 margin here in Conway. As I said, look for homecourt to prove the difference. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-23-16 | Florida v. George Washington -1.5 | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. The Gators are playing very well so far in this tournament. Lets not be so quick to forget that this is the same team that lost five of its last seven regular season games and which got eliminated in the SEC quarterfinals. Lets also keep in mind that the Gators are still 9-10 on the road including an 0-2 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog of three or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Colonials are 15-3 at home. While the Gators have failed to score 75 points in three of their last four, the Colonials have scored 80 or more in three straight and four of five. I expect them to advance to MSG, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event |
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03-22-16 | Grizzlies v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Lakers would love to reward the faithful with another win. With the schedule in their favor, this is arguably going to be their best chance to do so. Give the Grizzlies credit. Despite dealing with numerous injuries, they've won back-to-back games, covering their last three. They're playing their 8th game in the past 12 days tonight though and I expect those injuries to finally catch up with them. Unlike their guests, the Lakers are well-rested; they've had the past three nights off. I look for the fresher legs to prove the difference, revenge-minded LA moving to 9-6 ATS its last 15 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. 10* Main Event |
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03-22-16 | Heat v. Pelicans UNDER 210 | Top | 113-99 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Miami and New Orleans to finish UNDER the total. These teams have both been on 'over' streaks recently. Those results have contributed to an extra high O/U line tonight. I believe that it will prove to be too high. I'm well aware that games here have been flyiing over the total all season, as I've won on a few overs here myself. That said, I'm also aware that Miami is one of the stingiest teams in the league. The Heat allow 97.9 ppg overall, fourth best in the NBA and only 0.1 ppg behind Cleveland for the best mark in the East. They also allow even less (97.7) on the road, third best in the NBA (behind only the Spurs and Cavs) and again only 0.1 ppg behind the Cavs for the best in the East. Overall, their road games are averaging 193.8 points, the UNDER going 19-13-1. The Heat held the Pelicans to 88 points (94-88 win) on Christmas Day, at Miami, a game that was tied 78-78 after regulation. Off several high-scoring games, I believe they'll be anxious to get back to playing some better defense tonight and I look for them to do just that. 10* blue chip |
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03-22-16 | Hornets v. Nets +7 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Beating the NBA is all about recognizing the right spots. I won with the Spurs against the Warriors on Sunday but went against them at Chalotte last night. Likewise, while I won with the Hornets last night, I'm full ready to go against them here at Brooklyn tonight. While very good at home, the Hornets aren't very good at all (13-19) on the road. They're also just 5-7 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. This is worse than a lot of typical b2b spots though. For starters, they really left it all on the floor and gave everythiing to come back last night. That type of emotional win can lead to a letdown. Additionally, they'll also be playing their eighth game in the past 12 days here. The Nets, on the other hand, are well-rested. They had the past two days off. Brooklyn has quietly gone 11-7 ATS its last 18 against teams which allow 99 or more ppg. Charlotte allows 100.8 overall and 102.7 on the road. 10* best bet |
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03-22-16 | St. Mary's v. Valparaiso -4.5 | Top | 44-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on VALPARAISO. Both these teams had strong regular seasons. Both are among the top "mid-majors" in the country. (They finished the regular season ranked #1 and #2 in the CollegeInsider Mid-Major Top 25 coaches poll.) Obviously, both were hoping to be in the NCAA Tournament. Sometimes, that can lead to a team going through the motions a little. I believe both teams are motivated to win tonight though, as both have overcome their disappointment and seemed determined to prove that they should have been "dancing." That said, I look for homecourt to ultimately prove the difference. The Gaels were very tough (20-1) to beat at home. They don't have a senior on the entire roster though and were occasionally vulnerable on the road. Four of their five losses came away from home. They're at an extremely tough venue tonight, as the Crusaders rarely lose here. Indeed, they're 31-2 here the past two years, 16-1 this season. The Gaels entered the Georgia game averaging 77.7 ppg at home, while shooting 53.8%. However, they enter tonight's game averaging only 69.3 ppg on the road. That's going to make it tough to keep up with a Crusaders team which averages better than 78 ppg on this floor and which has averaged 81 ppg its last five overall. The Gaels are only 6-10 ATS as underdogs the past couple of seasons. During that time, they're just 11-24 ATS when facing a team with a winning record, after a minimum of 15 games had been played. With a healthy roster, which consists of four seniors, I look for the Crusaders to set the school record for most home wins tonight, covering the relatively small number along the way. 10* Main Event |
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03-21-16 | Boston University v. NJIT -4 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on NJ Tech. These teams met here a little over four months ago, as part of the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame Classic. The Highlanders won that one by a score of 90-76. While the Highlanders are quite healthy, the Terriers are a bit banged-up. While the Terriers barely won their first round game, a 3-point win at Fordham, the Highlanders hammered Army by 14 points. While the Terriers are 1-5 ATS their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, the Highlanders are 4-1 ATS their last five lined home games. These coaches are friends from their days working together at Columbia. Jones, Boston's coach, got the better of Engles, NJIT's coach, back in 2009 when the two coaches first went up against each other. (Jones was still with Columbia at the time while Engles was already with NJIT.) However, as mentioned, Engles got the beter of Jones this season. Playing at home, I expect Engles' Highlanders to have the edge again this evening, covering the small number along the way. 10* CIT Personal Favorite |
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03-21-16 | 76ers v. Pacers -15.5 | Top | 75-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. I won with the 76ers (barely) on Friday, when they covered against OKC. However, even then, I acknowledged that they were a "bad team." At the time, they were playing at home and getting (slightly) more points than they are here. They were also catching the Thunder playing the front end of a b2b with a bigger game (against these same Pacers) on deck the next night. Off back-to-back wins, playing on the road, and with the tougher opponent on deck the next night, I felt the Thunder might have a difficult time covering the huge number. Tonight's game sets up much differently. Instead of playing at home, the 76ers are now on the road. Worse, they're now playing their fourth game in five nights, a difficult scheduling situation for any team. Instead of catching a team off b2b wins, they're facing an Indiana team which will be in an angry mood, due to b2b losses. No reason for the Pacers to hold back either, as they have the next two days off. The Pacers have won the last two meetings by 20 and 27 points. They're obviously a far more talented team and tonight I expect them to also be the hungrier team. With the schedule in their favor, I see this one getting ugly. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-21-16 | Nuggets v. Cavs -11.5 | Top | 91-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
10* Cavs. Writeup to follow |
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03-21-16 | Spurs v. Hornets +6 | Top | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte. I won with the Spurs against the Warriors on Saturday. However, I believe the value lies against them tonight. Even with Saturday's win, the Spurs are still only 3-6 ATS their last nine. While they've been "unbeatable" at home, the Spurs' have only been "very good" on the road. Tonight, they'll take on a Charlotte team which has been "very good" at home. In fact, the the Hornets have more home wins (26) than the Spurs (24) do on the road. While they were upset last time out, the Hornets are still a healthy 8-3 SU/ATS their last 11 against teams with a winning record. They've also won nine of their 11 March games overall, with both losses coming by single-digits. All things considered, I feel the number is generous and I'm grabbing all those points. 10* best bet |
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03-20-16 | Hawaii v. Maryland -6.5 | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. I lost with the Terps in the first round but am fully willing to give them another shot in a favorable matchup today. Yes, the Terps got a little complacent last game. They still dominated almost the entire way though and I believe that their late game letdown will provide them with a wake-up call to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. The Warriors certainly played well in their opener. However, it should be noted that they were fortunate to catch Cal without senior point guard Tyrone Wallace, who broke his hand at practice a couple of days earlier. That upset was the program's first ever NCAA Tournament win, so the Warriors can already go home happy and holding their heads high. Prior to Friday, the Warriors' schedule included very few wins over quality opponents. The last time (2002) that Hawaii was in the tourney was the year that the Terps won it all. I expect them to take advantage of today's favorable matchup, ultimately pulling away for a convincing victory. 10* |
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03-20-16 | Middle Tennessee v. Syracuse UNDER 131 | Top | 50-75 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Syracuse and Middle Tenn. State to finish UNDER the total. Interesting #10 vs. #15 matchup here. The Blue Raiders shocked everyone except themselves in beating Michigan State. They're a confident and mature team. While they beat the Spartans in a high-scoring game, the Blue Raiders also know a thing or two about defense. They were one of only two CUSA teams to allow less than 70 ppg this season and they won their conference championship game by a score of 55-53. They've allowed 61 or fewer points in four of their last six. The Orange delivered a dominant defensive effort in their opening game, beating Dayton by a 70-51 score. While the Orange hit fewer than 40% from the field, Dayton managed to connect on only 32% of its shots. Lastly, it should be noted that the Blue Raiders have seen the UNDER go 6-1 the past few years after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game, a perfect 3-0 this season. They allowed 62, 64, and 53 points, those three games staying below the total by an average of 12 points a piece. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 10* |
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03-20-16 | Clippers v. Pelicans +8 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on New Orleans. The Pelicans are obviously pretty banged-up right now and not many are going to give them a chance without Anthony Davis. They've got the schedule in their favor though, as LA just lost to another banged-up team (Memphis) yesterday. This hasn't been a good role for the Clippers. They're an ugly 9-20-1 ATS the last 30 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range, 3-10-1 ATS their last 14. On the other hand, New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times it was a home underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range. Needless to say, Rivers wasn't happy with his team yesterday. The Clippers are still pretty comfortably in the #4 spot (and know they can't improve on that) though and getting up for this game, when they have Golden State on deck to close out the road trip, may be easier said than done. The Pelicans, playing with triple-revenge, have never been swept by the Clippers. I expect their best effort here. 10* best bet |
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03-20-16 | Iowa +7 v. Villanova | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Iowa. Its true that Villanova was more consistent overall this season. However, when the Hawkeyes are "on," they've been every bit as good. Having snapped out of their funk with a close win over Temple, the type of victory a team can often build positive momentum from, I expect the Hawkeyes to bring their "A game" this afternoon. The Wildcats are a very good team, as usual. They've been bounced in the second rournd of the tournament each of the past two years though and that figures to be in the back of their heads here. They're worried about advancing, not covering. Note that the Cats are just 5-8 ATS their last 13 against teams with a winning record and 1-3 ATS their last four against teams that score 77 or more. As for the Hawkeyes, they're 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game AND, going back considerably further, 6-1 ATS their last seven as a neutral court underdog in the 6.5 to 9 point range. Remember, that Iowa's last three losses all came by four or fewer points. Also, remember that this Iowa team was 4-0 against Michigan State and Purdue this season. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. 10* breakfast club |
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03-19-16 | Warriors v. Spurs -3 | Top | 79-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on San Antonio. If not for the Warriors, the Spurs would be receiving a lot more attention, as they're having a fantastic season. In fact, they actually outscore teams by a greater margin per game than GS does. The Spurs have the schedule in their favor for this one. While the Warriors, who played Dallas last night, have fared pretty well in b2b spots, Golden State is also playing its sixth game in the past nine days here. That's a pretty draining schedule, particularly for a team that has the additional burden of all that extra media attention. The Warriors hammered the Spurs in the earlier meeting. That was early on in the season though. The Spurs didn't have Duncan and Aldridge was still adjusting. It was also at Golden State. This time, the game is at San Antonio, where the Spurs are 34-0, and Popovich's team has all its weapons and is firing on all cylinders. The Spurs typically play very well at this time of the year, as they're 27-13 ATS (36-4 SU) in March the past 2+ seasons, a month that has been good to them for a lot longer than that. Payback time. 10* Personal Fav |