Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-07-21 | Flames -125 v. Sharks | 3-5 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jacob Markstrom has won five of his last seven starts and he has been better on the road, with a 1.71 GAA.. The Flames are better on the road at 11-3-2 and they are coming off a loss, so they should be motivated. The Sharks are just 5-4-1 at home and they should have a tough time scoring against the Flames. Take the Flames on the road Tuesday. |
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12-07-21 | Celtics +2.5 v. Lakers | 102-117 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Everything points to the Celtics covering this line. First, they are 9-5 ATS on the road. Second, the Lakers are 4-11 ATS at home, including 3-9 ATS as home favorites. They only have four wins this season against teams with a winning record. The last time these teams met, LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook all played, but the Celtics still won by 22 points in Boston. Jaylen Brown sat that game out for the Celtics and he’s questionable for the rematch, but regardless of his status I’ll take the points. |
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12-07-21 | Boise State v. CS-Northridge UNDER 125.5 | 74-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams struggle offensively and play with no urgency. The Broncos average 64.1 points per game and the Matadors are scoring 59.1 as both rank in the bottom 50 in the nation. The Broncos have gone Over the total in only two of their eight games, while the Matadors have done so just once in six contests. This game will be played at a very slow pace and stay Under this low total. |
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12-07-21 | Wild v. Oilers -118 | 4-1 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota is an excellent team, but getting Edmonton at this number at home, where the Oilers are 9-2, is something we have to take. Both the Oilers and Wild are undefeated when leading after both the first and second periods this season. Minnesota is the third-most penalized team (254 penalty minutes) in the NHL. The Oilers come off a 5-1 home loss to the Kings but are 7-0 in their past seven when scoring two goals or fewer in their previous game. |
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12-07-21 | Panthers v. Blues +140 | 3-4 | Win | 140 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers have now won 7 of their last 9 games, however all 7 of those wins were at home. They are just 3-3-3 on the road this season while the Blues are 7-3-1 at home. These two teams just faced off in Florida and the Panthers won a close 1-goal game, so I think the Blues are able to make the adjustments to get the win at home tonight. I also think there is a massive overreaction to Ville Husso starting with Jordan Binnington out, but Husso was actually playing better before Binnington entered COVID protocol. Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been at his best lately so get on this play now because if Spencer Knight gets the start, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does, the line will go up. |
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12-07-21 | Hurricanes v. Jets -106 | 4-2 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hurricanes have a bit of a goalie problem right now. Frederik Anderson has allowed four goals in three of his last four games, so Antti Raanta got the last two starts. The Canes have also lost five of their last seven. The Jets have won three of their last four. They are getting plenty of shots on goal and scoring lots of goals. They’ve scored 18 goals the past 4 games despite getting shut out once.. The Jets are 9-3-1 at home and both teams will be peppering the goalies with shots, so I like the home team with the better goalies |
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12-07-21 | UTEP +19 v. Kansas | 52-78 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jayhawks are not where they want to be yet and are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games. Their defense has been struggling recently, allowing an average of 77.3 points over the last three contests. The Miners have been overperforming this season. Their defense has looked elite, as they are allowing just 61.1 points per game. This spread is too high, considering how Kansas is playing right now. Take the points with the Miners. |
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12-07-21 | Ducks -115 v. Sabres | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's the second of a back-to-back for Anaheim, but I still prefer the Ducks' backup goaltender Anthony Stolarz, to Buffalo's Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who was just called up from the AHL because the team is so thin at the position right now due to injury. Luukkonen was 1-3-0 with a 3.88 GAA in the NHL last year as a rookie and a mediocre 6-6 with a 3.42 GAA this year in the AHL. The Sabres have given up 20 goals over the last three games, their most in a three-game stretch since yielding a franchise-record 21 goals in February 1993. |
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12-07-21 | Predators v. Red Wings +113 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Red Wings are red hot right now having won 5 straight games, and they are 9-2-2 at home. The Predators haven’t won back-to-back games in about a month and they are just 5-5-1 on the road. Alex Nedeljkovic has been very good for the Wings only allowing more than 3 goals twice this season. He has also won 4 straight starts and allowed 2 goals or fewer in 5 of the last 6 games. Juuse Saros has been good too but he is much worse on the road with a 3.26 GAA. Take the Red wings at home. |
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12-07-21 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 4-5 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jackets score just 2.5 goals per game on the road, and they didn’t score more than three in any of the four games in their last road trip. The Maple Leafs are dominant at home where they are 9-5 to the Under, but they only allow two goals per game at home. This was 5.5 earlier but it has popped up to 6 so I will take it while its at 6. I think the Blue Jackets score 2 goals max, so we just have to hope the Maple Leafs sc, so let's take the Under at this number. |
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12-07-21 | Massachusetts v. Northeastern | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Northeastern is 3-0 in true home games this season, while UMass has played just one true road game and lost in blowout fashion at Yale. UMass has rallied back from down double digits to win in four games this season but that it was down double digits is obviously concerning. The Minutemen are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games. Since the 2014-15 season, the Huskies are 22-4 in non-conference home games. Led by transfer Chris Doherty, Northeastern has outrebounded its opponent in six of its nine games this season, including four of the last five. The Huskies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. |
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12-07-21 | Bradley v. Toledo -4.5 | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toledo might be the MAC's best team and its only two losses were at good teams Oakland and Michigan State. Sophomore Ryan Rollins leads Toledo and ranks 26th nationally with a MAC-best 20.1 ppg. The Rockets are outrebounding their opposition by 7.9 rpg this season, which ranks ranks 33rd in the nation. Bradley has won three in a row but all were home and against pretty mediocre-to-bad competition. The Braves are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. I probably wouldn't go any higher than this spread. |
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12-07-21 | Old Dominion -7 v. William & Mary | 74-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a fade on the Tribe, who are 0-8 SU and ATS in their eight games against Division I teams. Kenpom ranks William & Mary as the 321st team in the country. The Monarchs are expected to be getting back two of their best players, Charles Smith and Jason Wade, from injury. They have been playing really well even without the duo. Old Dominion is the much better team in this matchup. With the addition of Smith and Wade, the Monarchs easily should cover this spread. |
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12-06-21 | Clippers -3 v. Blazers | 102-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blazers are in trouble. The good news is that C.J. McCollum (ribs) is listed as probable. The bad news is that Damian Lillard (abdomen) and Anfernee Simons (ankle) will be out again, while Nassir Little (ankle) is listed as questionable. With those three out the last two games, the Blazers lost both contests by at least 28 points. Another blowout could be coming. |
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12-06-21 | Penguins v. Seattle Kraken -104 | 6-1 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With news that Casey Desmith is expected to start for the Penguins, I will happily take the Kraken at home. Casey Desmith is 0-4-1 with a 4.32 GAA this season. The Kraken are 6-6-0 at home this season and they have sneakily won 3 of their last 4 games and 5 of their last 7. Phillip Grubauer has been much better lately after a tough start to the season. He has won 3 of his last 5 starts and he hasn’t allowed more than 3 goals in a start in his last 8 games. Take the value on the Kraken at home. |
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12-06-21 | Kings v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 0-4 | Win | 110 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Canucks are 9-1 to the under at home this season and the Kings are 6-2 to the under on the road. The Kings played last night so they should be a little weary. Last night's game was also 2-1 until the very end of the third period so the 5-1 final score is deceiving. Cal Peterson is the Kings backup and he is expected to start tonight, but he has only allowed more than 3 goals twice this season. Thatcher Demko has been much better for the Canucks as of late, but the Canucks just fired their leadership so I would expect the Canucks to be more focused tonight with everyone now playing for their job security. I think one of these teams gets shut down, I like the under. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Suddenly, the Patriots’ 2-4 start to the season seems like a distant memory as they ride a 6-game win streak entering tonight’s contest. New England is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS when on a six-game-exact win skein since 2007. NFL teams on a 6-0 SUATS-exact win skein are 6-1 SUATS in division games when coming off an ATS win of 14 or more points. That’ a lot for Sean McDermott to digest given the fact that Buffalo is 3-31 SU and 12-21-1-1 ATS against the Pats since 2001, including 2-16 SU and 5-13 ATS home. After its 4-1 SUATS start, Buffalo enters tonight’s game just 3-3 SUATS in its past six contests. With Belichick riding a 9-1 ATS mark in his last ten games as a division road against foes coming off a win, we can’t fade that. |
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12-06-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Bucks | 104-112 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers covered as underdogs, yet again, Sunday in a one-point loss to the Jazz. They are now 15-6-1 ATS as underdogs this season. The fact that the Bucks are favored by this much, even with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) listed as questionable, is surprising. Even if he plays, I think the Cavaliers can cover this line. |
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12-06-21 | Wizards +5.5 v. Pacers | 110-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers come into this game ice cold, losers of four straight. Three of those losses came at home. Their depth chart is limited right now, with both T.J. McConnell (wrist) and Justin Holiday (COVID-19) out, which isn’t helping matters. They have not operated well as favorites this season, posting a 5-9 record ATS in such situations. Despite the expectation that Spencer Dinwiddie sits this game out for the Wizards, who also just played Sunday, look for Washington to keep things close. |
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12-06-21 | Avalanche -195 v. Flyers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flyers just fired their coach and while I do think it was necessary, I don’t think in the middle of a back-to-back with no practices with a new coach was the best timing. The Aves are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Senators so they should come out more focused tonight. Martin Jones should be starting for the Flyers after relieving Carter Hart last night, but he is 0-3-1 with a 3.76 GAA in his last 4 starts. The Aves are currently missing Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri, Bowen Byram, and Darcy Keumper to injury but all are day-to-day and could be back. Jonas Johansson has been very bad when he has struggled but he also allowed 2 goals or fewer in 3 of his last 5 starts since Keumper was hurt. The Flyers have lost 8 in a row. Lay the juice on the Aves, this line will only go up. |
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12-06-21 | Avalanche v. Flyers UNDER 6.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You know the drill: If the total is 6.5 goals, I'm going Under. It's just not that easy for two teams to total seven goals in an NHL game regardless of whom is in net. The Flyers have been held to three goals or fewer in eight straight games -- all losses. That cost coach Alain Vigneault his job today. |
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12-06-21 | Senators v. Devils UNDER 6.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wow, two games with totals of 6.5 today! Not sure I've seen that this season. The Sens are not a good offensive team so I can easily see Mackenzie Blackwood holding them to one goal. Don't expect New Jersey to score six to go Over this number. I may come back and play the moneyline on this one as well. |
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12-06-21 | Mercer v. Coastal Carolina -134 | 74-69 | Loss | -134 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Coastal Carolina has looked very good in its past two games, double-digit wins over South Carolina and Winthrop. Kansas State transfer Rudi Williams totaled 49 points in those games. Williams is shooting 58.7 percent from the field this season and 57.1 percent from deep. Just for a point of reference, Mercer also has played Winthrop and lost in OT. The Bears are 1-3 on the road and that win was against Kennesaw State. They are 1-4 ATS in their past five after a win. |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa -2.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My model makes Iowa a six-point favorite Monday and it might end up finishing at an even wider margin. Illinois has struggled on the road, owning an 0-3 ATS record, and now the Illini head to Iowa for a Big 10 battle. Iowa has been playing well and will be looking to cover its fifth straight. Lay the points. |
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12-06-21 | Texas Southern +24 v. Florida | 69-54 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas Southern is 0-7 but that's very misleading as the Tigers have played a very tough schedule and not a single home game yet. They have been competitive in nearly every game as witnessed by their 5-2 ATS mark. TSU won the SWAC last season and a game in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament and is favored to win the SWAC again with four starters back. I don't think UF even wins by 20, much less 25 to lose this bet. |
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12-05-21 | Flames +115 v. Golden Knights | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Flames have won 7 of their last 8 games and they are 11-2-2 on the road this season. The Golden Knights are just about healthy, but Robin Lehner has struggled this season, and they are just 7-5-0 on home ice. Vegas has lost 3 of their last 5 games and the Flames will make it very hard for the Knights to score. I like the value in the Flames on the road. |
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12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Featuring two teams playing FANTASTIC defensive football as of late. Kansas |
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12-05-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets -115 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second of a back-to-back for the Leafs, who will not have forward Mitch Marner and his 21 points due to injury. Toronto also will be starting a backup goaltender, either Joseph Woll if healthy enough to go or Michael Hutchinson. Either is a downgrade from Jack Campbell -- Woll has been good but it seems unlikely he plays since he wasn't healthy enough to serve as the No. 2 on Saturday. |
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12-05-21 | Kings v. Oilers -185 | 5-1 | Loss | -185 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mikko Koskinen is expected to be back in net for the Oilers as they head home. They are 9-1-0 at home on the season. The Kings have lost 7 of their last 8 games and they are 3-3-2 on the road this season. The Kings have lost 8 of their last 9 trips to Edmonton as well. These teams are trending in complete opposite directions. Jonathan Quick allowed 4 goals and 6 goals in his last 2 games. This line should be at least -200 and probably higher, so we will take the value on the home team before it goes up. |
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12-05-21 | Ravens v. Steelers +4.5 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Mike Tomlin is 20-7 SU and 17-8-2 ATS in his NFL career after allowing more than 30 points in a contest, including 15-3 SU and 12-4-2 ATS at home. As a result of Sunday’s 41-10 pummeling, Pittsburgh now resides in last place in the AFC North. There is nothing better than a red-faced angry dog who embarrassed us as a 5* Best Bet last week, especially at home in division games. With that being said, Big Ben is 8-4 SU and 9-2-1 ATS as a home dog in this league. However, to seal the deal consider that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS as a division dog against foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 46 | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Seattle Seahawks are the #1 UNDER team in the league this season. Seattle games have gone 1-9-1 O/U TY, with an average of only 39.5 combined PPG. Talk about REGRESSION! Seattle’s offensive numbers are DOWN by -9.2 ppg compared to last year (19.0 ppg vs 28.2 ppg)... and their defensive numbers have IMPROVED by -3.1 ppg (20.5 ppg vs 23.6). It’s no wonder they’ve gone from 51.8 combined ppg to only 39.5 ppg. So we’ll be Going LOW (again) in this week’s Niners @ Seahawks game. |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -1 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
5* Inter-Conference Game of the Week Setting the table for the Raiders, is the fact that home teams coming off a Turkey Day win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 1990 when hosting sub .666 foes off win. With the sinners in a three-way tie for second-place in the AFC West, one game behind Kansas City, and currently 5-1 ATS at home coming off a pair of previous home losses – they lost to Cincinnati and Kansas City at Allegiant Stadium last month – it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: NFL teams coming off a SU underdog win on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since 1990 versus a foe coming off a Monday Night game. |
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12-05-21 | Jaguars v. Rams UNDER 48 | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 30 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Jacksonville Jaguars should be at the top of ALL bettors’ lists, when it comes to favorite UNDER teams. Since an OVER in Game One, the JAGS have gone 1-9 O/U in their last ten games... with an average margin of -11.3 ppg... and have not topped 17 points in SIX straight games. That’s what we call Offensive Futility. It didn’t get any better vs the Falcons last week either (14 total points and QB Lawrence had only 5.4 yards per passing attempt). We’ll keep riding Jaguar UNDERS until the streak is broken. |
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12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit 4* AFC Play of the Day While on paper it appears the Chargers are wobbling at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS since Bye week, they are actually 4-1 ITS (In The Stats) in those games. They are also 6-1-1 ATS away when coming off an away game. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow appears to be leading the Bengals’ resurgence, yet he is just 2-6 ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4 SUATS against no-division foes. And then there is Cinci’s 2-11 SUATS ledger when coming off a pair of wins-exact. Speaking of which, we sew up the deal with The clincher: Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS since 1980 when coming off consecutive wins after facing Pittsburgh, including 0-5 SUATS in non-division games. |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit 5* NFL Upset of the Week Chicago has out yarded each of its last three opponents, while holding all three foes to less than 300 yards. And then there is this from the WOM (Well Oiled Machine): Game Twelve NFL home teams who were in the playoffs the previous season are 6-1 SUATS since 1990 against opponents coming off a Bye week. And then there is a cold weather team hosting a warm weather team in December. Given Arizona’s 5-13 SU and 6-11-1 ATS all-time mark on the NFC North road. The clincher: Playing Against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980. |
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12-04-21 | Iowa +11 v. Michigan | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units 4* Big-10 Bash The Hawkeyes have held the upper hand in this series with the Wolverines, going 15-8-1 ATS as a dog in this series, including 8-2 ATS with an .800 or greater win percentage, and 6-0 ATS when the Maize-and-Blue are coming off back-to-back wins. In addition, teams entering their conference championship game, coming off a win of 14 or more points, are just 19-29 ATS all-time, including 1-9 ATS against a foe coming off a loss. Next, the favorite in Big Ten title games is 2-8 ATS (1-7 ATS versus .800 or greater foes). Finally, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz brings a 5-0 ATS record as a dog of more than 7 points with a win percentage of .750 or more into the fray. The clincher: Playing Against any favorite of 6 or more points with a better record than its opponent in its conference championship game – if coming off an ATS win of 15 or more points and facing an .800 or fewer opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1996. |
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12-04-21 | Houston v. Cincinnati -10 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit 5* AAC Championship Cash Playing high-profile opponents has not been a problem for Cincinnati, either, considering they own a spotless 5-0 ATS record in the last five contests versus .900 or greater opponents. Series history also favors UC, as Houston stands 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS versus the Bearcats, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS here. And despite this year’s success, Cougars coach Holgorsen is only 9-18 SU and 11-16 ATS versus undefeated opposition in his career. The clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit 5* Sun Belt Championship Smash Much like the Baylor-Oklahoma State contest, these two own very similar numbers in the most important offensive and defensive team stats, but there is one area where the Cajuns own an overwhelming edge: Appalachian State is dead even when it comes to turnover margin in 2021, while Louisiana checks in at +11. In addition to riding an 11-game win streak since an opening season loss at Texas, Louisiana beat ASU by 28 points in mid-October when they held the Mountaineers to a season-low 13 points and 211 yards. The Clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992. |
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12-04-21 | Utah State +6 v. San Diego State | 46-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit 3* MWC Championship Whack New Utah State head coach Blake Anderson made quite the splash in his first season with the Aggies when he took over a one-win team and led them to the MWC championship game. With four SU underdog wins this season, this nineteen returning-starter dog checks all the canine boxes today, including the one where underdogs have bagged the cash 6 of seven times in this conference title game. Sure, Diego has a tough-as-nails defense (313 YPG) that ranks No. 13 in the nation, but the sloth-like offense ranks No. 110, failing to score 20 or more points in each of their last seven contests. And while the sun worshippers are 11-1 on the season, they’re only 5-7 ITS, which means the majority of their wins have been fortuitous. With the pressure squarely on the Aztecs to capture a record-setting victory, the points become the play here today. |
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12-03-21 | Clippers v. Lakers +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units his spread opened at Clippers -2 but is now Lakers -1.5 because LeBron James cleared COVID protocols already and will play. I usually wait until as late as possible before picking NBA games these days to see who might be ruled out last minute -- that strategy saved me on the Bucks on Thursday when Giannis was a last-minute scratch -- but I won't be around that late tonight so we will just have to assume that LeBron and Anthony Davis (questionable but always on the injury report) do play. The Clippers enter on a three-game skid. |
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12-03-21 | Oilers -125 v. Seattle Kraken | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This moneyline surprises me as the Oilers are 16-5-0 and the Kraken 8-13-0 and Edmonton is only -125. I'll happily take it. This will be the Oilers' first-ever game in Seattle. The Kraken visited Edmonton on Nov. 1 and lost 5-2 as NHL scoring leader Leon Draisaitl had two goals and two assists. Two of Seattle's best forwards, Jordan Eberle and Jaden Schwartz, may not play due to injury. The Kraken have lost seven straight vs. Western Conference foes. |
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12-03-21 | VMI v. Portland -3 | 90-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The SportsLine Projection Model has the Pilots winning by exactly three, but ESPN's BPI and a few others have it closer to 7. Portland's 7-2 record matches the best nine-game start to a season in the last 10 years. Shantay Legans has the best nine-game start among all Portland head coaches since the Pilots joined NCAA Division I in 1958. Legans brought in a ton of transfers and three especially have been thriving: Former Eastern Washington (where Legans was hired from) players Tyler Robertson (16.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Mike Meadows (10.6 ppg, has a triple-double), and ex-UNLV big man Moses Wood (15.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg). VMI is winless on the road and obviously had to make the long trip across country. The Keydets haven't covered yet this year. |
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12-03-21 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes +197 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Karel Vejmelka should be in the net for the Coyotes, and he is coming off a 40 save shutout in Winnipeg. The Coyotes have actually won 4 of their last 10 games now while the Golden Knights have lost 2 in a row and 4 of 10. The Knights are getting healthier, but they still struggle on the road at 5-5-0. Robin Lehner is 9-9-0 with a 3.08 GAA this season and he has lost 3 of his last 4 starts. The Puck line at -135 is tempting but I will go for it on the ML with the home dog. |
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12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 160.5 | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Big Ten opener for both and these are the two highest-scoring offenses in the country. The Hawkeyes are averaging 94 PPG and the Boilermakers 92.4. This game is going to be amazing to watch, very fast paced and high scoring. It will explode past the total. |
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12-03-21 | Devils v. Jets -189 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second of a back-to-back for New Jersey, which should mean backup goaltender Jonathan Bernier. He has lost four straight starts. Always the chance New Jersey loses someone to injury on Thursday as well. Winnipeg is fully healthy/COVID free for perhaps the first time all season. The Jets have lost six of seven but five of those games were away. They are 7-3-1 at home. New Jersey has just one victory in the past eight in the series. |
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12-03-21 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit PAC-12 Pounding Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal is in a tough spot here, going 1-5 SUATS the last six games as a dog of 6 or fewer points when seeking revenge. And with late season coach-poaching currently in high gear (Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly to LSU, Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley to USC), who knows if Cristobal will be lured away by the promise of a bigger payday before this game |
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12-03-21 | Heat v. Pacers -5 | 113-104 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat are running out of healthy players. Bam Adebayo, (thumb), Jimmy Butler (back) and Markieff Morris (neck) are all expected to sit out. With them out Monday, the Heat loss by 26 points to the Cavaliers. They have little size up front to battle with Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, so the Pacers have the chance to earn a decisive victory. |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky -3 v. UTSA | 41-49 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Conference USA title game from San Antonio. This spread has been bobbing up and down between 2.5-3 all day, so let's grab 2.5 now in case it stays at 3. WKU lost a shootout at home to UTSA earlier this season and this one is on the Roadrunners' field, but the Hilltoppers have been dominating every opponent since then. All seven wins during WKU’s streak have been by at least 15 points, with the average margin of victory at 26.4. Bailey Zappe is having one of the best seasons ever by an FBS quarterback. UTSA, meanwhile, has looked sluggish in its past three games (0-3 ATS) and did lose its finale. Maybe the Roadrunners were simply coasting, but I'll take the hot team. |
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12-03-21 | Notre Dame v. Boston College +4.5 | 57-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a fade on the Irish as they 1-5 ATS and have lost three of their past four SU. The Eagles have been overperforming so far, and their defense has been outstanding in only allowing 60.1 PPG. Notre Dame should struggle again and BC will cover. |
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11-30-21 | Pistons +9 v. Blazers | 92-110 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons are pretty bad but there's talk that the Blazers will give Damian Lillard tonight off in the second of a back-to-back -- plus, Norman Powell missed Monday's loss to Utah and is in doubt, so I think Detroit can stay within this number if both are true. We'll have to take the chance now, though, because the spread will drop if Lillard becomes official. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their past five. |
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11-30-21 | Warriors v. Suns -120 | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Looking forward to watching this game and simply taking the Suns because they are at home. The Dubs are a bit thin right now with Andre Iguodala (still a great defender) and Damion Lee out along with of course Klay Thompson and James Wiseman. Draymond Green may not be 100 percent after taking a hard fall Sunday but is expected to play. Chris Paul defensively tends to give Steph Curry some trouble. |
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11-30-21 | South Dakota v. San Jose State -2 | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This pretty much comes down to where this game is being played -- San Jose State is unbeaten at home with wins over Cal State Fullerton and Northern Colorado, while South Dakota is 0-2 in true road games with double-digit losses at Drake and Nebraska. San Jose State has been boosted by five Power 5 transfers, topped by Ohio State's Ibrahima Diallo. The Coyotes are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. |
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11-30-21 | Duke v. Ohio State +2.5 | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a contrarian play, as there's going to be a good number of bettors rushing to take the team that just beat Gonzaga. However, we just saw Gonzaga struggle against Tarleton on Monday and, if you remember the game between Duke and the Zags, there was a good amount of foul trouble for Gonzaga. Just something to consider. Bottom line, this is a decent letdown spot for Duke coming off a big win. Grab the points with Ohio State at home. |
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11-30-21 | Hawaii +12 v. Santa Clara | 58-70 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos have looked terrible in their last two games, losing both as favorites. They have scored a total of just 116 points in those two games. The Rainbow Warriors have looked good, going 3-2 but not losing a game by more than three points. Their offense has been really good as they are averaging 81 PPG. This spread is too high, as the Hawaii offense will score enough points to cover. |
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11-30-21 | Northwestern +2 v. Wake Forest | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The model has the wrong team favored and thinks the Wildcats edge this one out by a point. Wake Forest looks to have the money on its side but this line still came down from +2 overnight. Both teams have played a bit of a weak schedule to open the year. Wake has failed to cover against both LSU and Oregon St in its last two games and Northwestern should pose a similar challenge. |
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11-30-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Wild | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona shocked the Jets in Winnipeg on Monday as a massive underdog; can the Yotes do it again Tuesday in the Twin Cities? Obviously doubtful, but getting Arizona on the puckline at +120 I can't turn down. The Wild are without their best offensive player in Mats Zuccarello and are starting backup goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen, who has been very shaky in two or four starts this year. |
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11-30-21 | Lightning v. Blues -126 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This ML has spiked a bit because the Lightning are starting backup goaltender Brian Elliott, and he's a massive downgrade from Andrei Vasilevskiy. Elliott hasn't played since Nov. 21 and has 3.30 GAA and .878 save percentage in three contests. The Blues are 7-2 in their past nine as home favorites. They aren't playing great overall but have won three straight at home. |
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11-30-21 | Texas State v. Rice -2 | 80-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rice comes off a solid third-place finish at a holiday tournament in Florida and is 2-0 in true home games. Owls guard Travis Evee leads the team and is eighth in Conference USA with 16.1 points per game. He is second in C-USA with 3.3 three-pointers per game, is third in three-point field goal percentage (43.4%) and sixth in field goal percentage (50.0%). The Owls lead C-USA in three-point shooting. Rice is 6-0 ATS in its past six games as a home favorite. The SportsLine Projection Model has Rice winning by six. |
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11-30-21 | Florida State v. Purdue -10.5 | 65-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Purdue's offense is unstoppable. It is averaging 92.3 PPG, and the Boilermakers have shot at least 50 percent from the field in all six of their games so far this season. The Seminoles have been bit by the injury bug, as they are missing three players in their rotation, including two starters. Florida State went to overtime with Boston University and only had four players record over 20 minutes. The Seminoles are very thin right now, and the Boilermakers should blow them out and easily cover. Lay the points. |
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11-30-21 | Capitals v. Panthers OVER 6 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two teams have already played twice this season with both totals hitting this over, and 7 straight matchups in this series have hit this over. Both these teams score a lot, and both these teams have good power plays. The Panthers score 4.2 goals per game at home while the Caps score 3.4 goals per game on the road, I like this over. |
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11-30-21 | Chattanooga -5 v. Tennessee Tech | 82-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I believe this spread is only going to rise -- the SportsLine Projection Model has the Mocs winning in a rout. The schools played on Nov. 16 in Chattanooga and the home team won by seven. Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa has been great in the early going for the Mocs, averaging 12.0 points and 6.5 rebounds. Chattanooga was picked No. 1 in the 2021-22 SoCon Preseason Coaches and Media Polls, while Tennessee Tech was picked to finish 8th in the Ohio Valley Conference Preseason Poll. |
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11-30-21 | Minnesota -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | 54-53 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
rating: 2 Units I am a bit surprised to see Minnesota favored by just a few points Tuesday. The Gophers are undefeated and hold a 4-1 record against the spread so far this season. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 2-4 and have only covered once in their five home games. Pittsburgh was just beaten outright by UMBC. A 10-point loss when you're a 5.5-point favorite does not instill confidence. The model has this one as a five-point game, so we're getting a good 2.5 points of edge. Lay it. |
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11-30-21 | Elon v. NC-Greensboro -3.5 | 61-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Elon is 0-5 against NCAA Division I competition this season with the Phoenix's two wins against something called Randolph College as well as Bluefield College. I think the latter one was from the movie Animal House. UNCG is unbeaten at home and allowing just 53.2 points per game there. The Spartans are ranked fifth nationally in rebounding margin (15.7), 11th in rebounds per game (45.4) and 24th in defensive rebounds per game (30.3). They will have a huge edge there. At -6.5, I didn't like this but at -4 it's worth a shot. The SportsLine Projection Model has UNCG winning easily. |
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11-30-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore +35 v. Connecticut | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OK, this spread has climbed to the point where I have to take that huge number on the Hawks. The MEAC program is 2-4 straight up but 5-0 against the spread. It upset a good Fordham team. UConn may not have much interest in the beginning coming off tough holiday tournament games vs. Auburn, Michigan State and VCU. CBS Sports Network has this telecast. |
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11-29-21 | Wyoming -4.5 v. CS-Fullerton | 79-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cowboys have looked amazing on both ends of the court. They are averaging 84.6 points while allowing 56.8 per game. They have had an easy schedule but they have thrived so far. The Titans have struggled defensively even against a weak schedule. KenPom ranks them as the 258th best defensive team. The Cowboys' offense will have another great game. |
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11-29-21 | Montana +13 v. Oregon | 47-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oregon really has to prove it can cover a spread, so I'll take the points with Montana. The Grizzlies had a bit of trouble to open the season but have covered in three straight games. Oregon has had difficulty all season as the Ducks are 1-5 against the spread, only covering against SMU, which is 1-7 ATS. Not a big vote of confidence there for Oregon. Montana can stand up to a team like this, 13 is likely too many points. Grab the underdog and challenge Oregon to show us it is decent enough to get this done. I don't think the Ducks are. |
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11-29-21 | Blazers v. Jazz -7.5 | 107-129 | Win | 102 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers have been a disaster on the road, posting a 1-9 record ATS. Things won’t be any easier for them Monday with Norman Powell (quadriceps) out. He’s averaging 16.9 points and Portland doesn’t have many viable scoring options behind him on the bench. The Jazz, who blew out the Pelicans by 22 points at home Saturday, could be lined up for another lopsided win. |
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11-29-21 | Penguins +130 v. Flames | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Penguins 5 game win streak was snapped last game, but that was with Casey Desmith starting. Jarry hasn’t allowed more than one goal in any of his last 5 starts, and the Penguins won all five of those games. The Flames have won four of their last 5 games and they are just 3-2-3 at home this season while the Penguins are 5-2-2 on the road. |
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11-29-21 | Texas-Arlington v. UC-Santa Barbara -12 | 70-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is mostly a fade of UT Arlington. The Mavericks are 1-5 this season, won their only game against a non-DI school, and have covered just once. We just saw Utah State win handedly on a similar -15.5 line vs. UT Arlington, and UCSB has covered as the home favorite two of two times this year. This is definitely a bit of a mismatch, and USCB should be able to get it done on both ends of the floor. |
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11-29-21 | Notre Dame +4.5 v. Illinois | 72-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At full strength, I think Illinois would spank Notre Dame. However, the Illini are expected to be without Andre Curbelo (undisclosed), Trent Frazier (leg), Jacob Grandison (illness) and Benjamin Verdonk (flu) tonight in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup. The Irish have been hugely bolstered by graduate transfer Paul Atkinson Jr., the 2019-20 Ivy League Player of the Year who transferred to Notre Dame during the offseason. Wish I had gotten this at +6.5 but clearly oddsmakers are starting to adjust. |
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11-29-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Mavs | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers welcomed back star rookie Evan Mobley from an elbow injury during their 105-92 demolition of the Magic on Saturday. They also have Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love back from their bouts with COVID-19, adding significant depth. They have played tough, going 11-6-1 ATS as underdogs. The Mavericks are only 3-5 ATS at home and don’t have the size up front to battle with Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Look for the Cavaliers to keep this game close. |
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11-29-21 | Tulsa +2 v. Oral Roberts | 80-87 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oral Roberts was one of the darlings of the 2021 NCAA Tournament but the Golden Eagles haven't really carried that over yet with a 3-3 record and those wins over all non-Division I schools. KenPom ranks Tulsa as the No. 142 team nationally and Oral Roberts 177. Sagarin has Tulsa as two points better and the SportsLine Projection Model six better. This is for the Mayor's Cup -- Oral Roberts is in Tulsa if you didn't know. |
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11-29-21 | Canucks v. Canadiens -120 | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Canucks lost a heartbreaker to the Bruins yesterday allowing 2 PPG in the third period to lose the game to the Bruins. Thatcher Demko should be back in net for the Canucks, and he has struggled with a 3.07 GAA. The Canucks have lost 9 of their last 10 games overall and they are 3-8-1 on the road. The Canadiens are better at home at 4-6-1 and Jake Allen was very good in their last game. Take the Habs at home. |
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11-29-21 | Cornell +3 v. Canisius | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I think the wrong team could be favored in this one. Cornell is 5-1, including three outright wins as an underdog against Binghamton, Lafayette and Colgate. The Big Red then covered in a loss to Penn State as a dog and against St Francis (PA) as a favorite in a victory. They've yet to lose ATS and face a Canisius team that has had its struggles. The Golden Griffins recently were 10-point favorites over Coppin and only won by a point. I think this is going to be a close battle between upstate New York teams. I'll take the points on the team that's covered every game. |
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11-28-21 | Sharks v. Blackhawks -116 | 2-0 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Marc Andre Fleury should be back in net tonight after getting the Blackhawks last game off. But even if he isn't, Kevin Lankanen played very well last game after allowing 2 goals early. He has also been much better at home with a 2.23 GAA. The Hawks were able to put together a comeback from down 2-0 and get the win in OT too, so I think they should carry some of that momentum over. James Reimer has been good for the Sharks this season but the Sharks have lost 5 of their last 8 games and 3 of their last 4 on the road. The Hawks have won 4 straight games at home and 6 of their last 8 games overall. Take the value in the Hawks at home. |
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11-28-21 | CS-Northridge v. San Diego UNDER 133.5 | 56-52 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are defense-oriented. The Toreros allow just 60 points per game and the Under has cashed in their last three games. The Matadors are averaging just 55 points away from home, while the Toreros allow 52.3 points per game at home. Both teams play at a slow pace. Go Under. |
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11-28-21 | Villanova -17 v. La Salle | 72-46 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wildcats are 3-2 but their losses have come against two of the nation's top five teams. They beat the 17th-ranked Volunteers by 18 points in Tennessee. They have had a full week of rest. The Explorers have looked incompetent at times in their first four games. They have played against very weak competition and are just 2-2. Their terrible defense won’t be able to handle the Wildcats' offense. |
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11-28-21 | Bucks -2.5 v. Pacers | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have reeled off six straight wins, which coincides with Khris Middleton’s return from a bout with COVID-19. They are 9-3 with him in the lineup this season, compared to 3-5 without him. He played when these two teams met earlier this season, which was a 10-point win for the Bucks in Indiana. I like them to cover in their rematch, as well. |
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11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers UNDER 49 | 26-34 | Loss | -103 | 74 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units San Francisco’s last two games have been VERY revealing. They have MASTERED the art of the l-o-n-g, time-consuming offensive drive. Check out how much clock they have eaten lately. In the win over LA, they had a drive of 11+ minutes, 6+ minutes, and 6+ minutes (that led to just 13 total pts). And in the win over the Jaguars, they did even better: A drive of 13+ minutes in the 1st quarter(!), 7.5 minutes, and 6 minutes (that led to 17 total pts). They have thrown the ball just 41 times in TWO games, while running it 86 times! It’s a DOUBLE-whammy: They have taken a LONG time to score... AND kept the opposing offenses off the field. Those huge running numbers should continue this week when they face the league’s WORST rushing defense in the Vikings (allowing 4.8 yards per rush TY). So with that said, it’s UNDER the Total of 48.5 points in the Minnesota / San Francisco game |
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Inter-Conference Game of the Week Head coach Sean McVay enters this game knowing he is 4-1 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a loss. And speaking of QB dings, despite battling a toe injury, and losing left tackle Elgton Jenkins to injury, Rodgers went 23-of-33 for 385 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s loss at Minnesota, snapping the league’s longest SUATS win skein at 9 this season. The big concern for Rams’ backers is Rodgers’ 41-21-1 ATS career record in games when the Packers are coming off a loss. However, it waters down to 13-11 ATS when he is at home in games with both teams coming off a loss. Cap it off my knowing that playing on any NFL team coming off consecutive SU favorite losses, the last an ATS loss by 12 or more points, if they were a playoff team last year and they are facing a .700 or better opponent is 16-0 ATS since 2006 |
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11-28-21 | Wofford +1.5 v. Georgia | 68-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This pick is a fade of Georgia. The Bulldogs are averaging 66 points per game against a weak schedule. The Terriers are averaging 84 points on 48.9 percent shooting from the field. Their offense should stay hot today. |
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11-28-21 | Warriors -2 v. Clippers | 105-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors are a stellar 11-1 at home, but don’t sleep on them on the road, either. They are 6-1 away from home, including 5-2 ATS. They have been the most dominant team in the league, recording a plus-13.6 point differential. Getting Marcus Morris back is big for the Clippers, but Nicolas Batum (COVID-19) being out is noteworthy. I’ll lay the small amount of points here and look for the Warriors to stay hot. |
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11-28-21 | Titans +7 v. Patriots | Top | 13-36 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitNFL Play of the Day A red-faced Ryan Tannehill was intercepted 4 times (3 times in the 4Q) in last week’s humiliating loss to Houston as the Titans were flagged for looking past the Texans in favor of today’s contest. Our QB League database notes that Tannehill is 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win, including 19-7 ATS as a dog. Note that NFL road dogs coming off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS when taking on a foe coming off a win of 14 or more points. The clincher: Tennessee is 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win under head coach Mike Vrabel, including 5-0 SUATS this season. |
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11-28-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Bengals | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitDivisional Game of the Week The Steelers are 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS the last 24 games in this series. They are also 9-2 SUATS away in games in which Cincinnati sports the better record, including 5-0 SUATS when the Black and Gold arrives off a SUATS loss. And making things juicier, when Pittsburgh is coming off a loss and facing Cincinnati coming off a win, the Steelers stand 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Queen City, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog. Also consider that : Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 27-5-1 SU and 22-11 ATS away in Ohio at Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he played his college ball at Miami Oh, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in games in which Pittsburgh owns the lesser record. To finish it off Cincy is 3-7 ATS as a division home favorite while Pitt is 7-1 ATS as a division road dog. |
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11-28-21 | Jets v. Texans OVER 44.5 | 21-14 | Loss | -106 | 70 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Our quest for OVER value in an ‘under the radar’ game takes us to Houston this week, as the TEXANS host the NY JETS. With two of the worst defenses in the league squaring off, POINTS should be PLENTY. I know the Texans haven’t scored > 22 points since Week One, but they have the perfect foe to ‘feast on’ this Holiday Weekend. JETS: #32 overall D (414.3) AND #32 scoring D (32.0 ppg allowed). Not only that, but 39.8 allowed in L5 games! Jumping out at us is Houston’s Home / Away ‘splits’. Texan HOME games (49.5) are averaging +12.3 ppg MORE than their road games (only 37.2) this season. Also in our favor is the fact that the JETS are on a current 6-1 O/U run (+12.2 ppg)... have gone 7-1 O/U as road dogs of 8 > pts L4Y... are 9-1 O/U vs the AFC South... and have averaged 49.8 ppg in their road games this season. |
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11-28-21 | North Texas v. Drake -4 | 57-54 | Loss | -114 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drake has lost two tough games in Florida, to Belmont and Alabama. I still think the Bulldogs will cover versus a North Texas team that's shooting 42 percent overall and 31.9 percent from deep. The Bulldogs are much better offensively and that will be the difference here. |
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11-27-21 | California +7 v. UCLA | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -120 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day There is not a whole lot on the line in this game for the Bruins – they have qualified for a bowl game (but cannot reach the Pac-12 title game), and they are still basking in the glow of their 62-33 destruction of arch-rival USC. Also, consider that they are 0-6-1 ATS after taking on the Trojans, 0-5-1 ATS in Game Twelve, and 1-7 ATS as home chalk of less than 10 points. Therefore, this becomes the ideal spot for the Bears, who still need a pair of wins (although next week doesn’t matter unless they score a victory here) to earn their bowl stripes. On top of that, they have owned this series spread-wise, going 12-4-1 ATS as a dog, and overall are 6-0 ATS as road dogs of 10 or fewer points. In addition, the Bears are 21-8 ATS as an underdog with head coach Justin Wilcox, including 7-0 ATS when the Bears own a losing record. |
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11-27-21 | Jets v. Flames -165 | 4-2 | Loss | -165 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jets were embarrassed last night losing 7-1 to the Wild and they have now lost 4 straight games. The Jets are also 2-5-3 on the road. The Flames have won four straight games and they are leading their division. The Jets haven’t been scoring lately and they will have a very tough time against one of the stingiest defenses in the league. |
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11-27-21 | Weber State v. Dixie State +12.5 | 87-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My model makes this game an 8.5-point spread, so you're getting a nice edge here with Dixie State. This is a battle between Utah schools, and even though Dixie has gone 1-4, this line is still too big. Grab the points, and expect this rivalry matchup to stay within double digits. |
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11-27-21 | Hornets -5 v. Rockets | 143-146 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A team that is quietly surging is Charlotte. The Hornets have won eight of their last nine games, including a 133-115 win last night against Minnesota. The 133 points was team's season-high. On Saturday they face the worst team in the NBA in the Rockets. Back the Hornets to continue their winning ways. |
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11-27-21 | Heat v. Bulls +1.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Bulls are coming off a solid bounce-back win on Friday against Orlando. They now travel back home to host a Miami team that has not played since Wednesday. I expect the Bulls' recent experience of losing the second game of a back-to-back scenario (they lost to the Pacers on Monday, 109-77) to motivate them to a hot start on Saturday. Take Chicago to hold off the Heat. |
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11-27-21 | Blue Jackets v. Blues -174 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both these teams played yesterday so both backup goalies should be starting again. However, I think Ville Husso has been better than Joonas Korpisalo this season. The Blue Jackets are much worse on the road and I think the Blues will come out strong after a tough loss to the Blackhawks last night. |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 33-37 | Push | 0 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week Okies a step behind normally overpowering "O", with 3 take aways greasing skids for escape vs Iowa St (25-15 first down & 362-306 yard deficits). Oklahoma St "D" has been immovable, ranking 3rd, 4th, & 2nd in total, rushing, scoring. A 165-23 pt edge L4 tilts. Repaying 6 straight losses. Consider as well that playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980 |
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11-27-21 | Marshall v. Indiana -10.5 | 79-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana is 5-0 and has covered every double digit spread it has seen since letting Eastern Michigan hang around to open the season. EMU was concerning, but Indiana seems to have woken up since and I think the Hoosiers keep rolling. Marshall has struggled against teams much worse than this. The model has this as a 14-point spread in favor of Indiana, so I'm getting my coveted three-point edge. Lay the points with the Hoosiers. |
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11-27-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Panthers -193 | 4-1 | Loss | -193 | 2 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Of the 9 NHL games on the slate today, 8 teams are favored by -175 or more. There isn’t a ton of value out there today, so I figure going with 3 home favorites and hope at worst case we go 2-1 and break even. The Panthers are a completely different team at home where they are undefeated, and the Kraken have just 1 road win all season. Both backups in Spencer Knight and Chris Dreidger should be starting so I like the home team. |
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11-27-21 | Northeastern +2.5 v. Harvard | 57-77 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I feel like the wrong team is favored. My model makes this game a pick 'em, but Harvard lost to Sienna and barely covered against Albany so I am a bit confused on why the Crimson are favored. This is a big Boston-area rivalry game; I think Northeastern shows up, and the model agrees. Grab the points in what should be a close one. |
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11-27-21 | Penn State -1 v. Michigan State | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 39 m | Show |
Rating 5 UnitsBig-10 Game of the Week Our numbers for this game clearly put the Spartans at a disadvantage, including a 0-5 ATS mark after playing Ohio State, and a 0-4 home record against the number when they have conference revenge. On the flip side, regardless of the outcome of this game, neither team can improve or regress in the standings of the Big Ten East Division when the 7-4 / 4-4 Lions invade East Lansing to take on the 9-2 / 6-2 Spartans. With that being the case, you know it’s a much more important result for PSU as far as bowl positioning is concerned. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in LRGs, as well as 4-1 ATS away versus conference revenge. PSU’s 26thranked defense (335 YPG) is also leagues better than MSU’s 119th rated stop-unit (463 YPG)... and therein lies your edge. Consider as well that Penn State head coach James Franklin is 30-4 SU and 27-7 ATS in games when coming off a win versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 14-2 SU and 15-1 ATS versus greater-than .400 foes. |
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11-27-21 | Ohio State -7.5 v. Michigan | 27-42 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OSU HC Day is 33-3 SU and 21-14-1 ATS in all games, including 24-0 SU and 16-8 ATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season, as well as 12-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS away. As for today’s all-the-marbles matchup, Ohio State is 7-1 ATS of late as road chalk of 8 or fewer points (check line), while Michigan owns a dreadful 0-8-1 ATS mark as a conference home dog of 10 or less points. We could go on, but with Harbaugh just 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS as a dog against .900 or greater opponents, Michigan will be little more than a speed bump at the Big House, as the Buckeyes barrel towards the Big Ten title game, and a spot in the CFB Playoff. |
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11-27-21 | Wake Forest v. Boston College +5.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Upset of the Week Wake has limped to the barn at the end of the season many times, 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS, and a frightening 0-5 SUATS versus teams coming off a SUATS loss. The Demon Deacons are also 3-12 ATS in the back half of back-to-back conference roadies. Meanwhile the Boston Brawlers are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of 4 or more, 15-3 ATS versus conference opponents they defeated in a most recent meeting, as well as 8-3 ATS vs .800 or greater vs. conference opponents. They have thrived since QB Phil Jurevic returned. Consider that playing on any .500 or greater college football conference home dog coming off one loss-exact if they lost SU as a favorite from Game Seven out if they allow 24.5 or fewer PPG and they average more than 120 rushing yards per game if they are facing an .800 or greater opponent that allows 17.5 or more PPG who won fewer than 12 games last season is 15-0 ATS since 1980. Wake Forest needs a M-U-S-T W-I-N, but we see U-P-S-E-T instead. |
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11-26-21 | Duke v. Gonzaga -7.5 | 84-81 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yes, Duke is a very good team, but no team is on Gonzaga's level. The Bulldogs proved that with their 20-point beatdown of UCLA. According to KenPom, the Bulldogs rank first in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils have looked impressive but they haven’t faced a good opponent since their first game. This spread is too small. |