11-26-21 |
Oregon State +5 v. Wake Forest |
|
77-80 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Oregon State is 0-5 against the spread and Wake Forest is undefeated this season, but my model has Oregon State as a one-point favorite. Wake Forest has not had a very difficult schedule, and Oregon State might be able to keep this closer than expected, if not win outright. This is definitely a bit of a contrarian play, but if you play systemically you need to trust it.
|
11-26-21 |
Bucks -2.5 v. Nuggets |
|
120-109 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 18 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units It's been a rough stretch for the Nuggets, who have lost five straight games. Three of those games came with Nikola Jokic (wrist) out, and he might not be back for this game, either, since he’s listed as questionable. Even if Jokic is able to return, the Nuggets will still be without Michael Porter Jr. (back), leaving them without one of their best scoring options. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS as road favorites and have a favorable opportunity to cover this small number.
|
11-26-21 |
Celtics -165 v. Spurs |
|
88-96 |
Loss |
-165 |
6 h 1 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics tend to crush me more than most teams, but I'm going to risk it here on the road because Jaylen Brown will play, while the Spurs are without both Doug McDermott and Devin Vassell. That's a fair amount of offensive production and Vassell is great defender who likely would have been tasked with Brown or Jayson Tatum.
|
11-26-21 |
Wizards v. Thunder UNDER 207 |
|
101-99 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Combined, these two teams average 204.6 points per game this season, but OKC is again without star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his 20.4 points and 4.4 assists. Washington is a Top 10 defensive team and OKC in the Top 16 via rating.
|
11-26-21 |
Washington State v. Washington +1 |
|
40-13 |
Loss |
-108 |
32 h 14 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The oddsmakers have installed Washington State as the favorite in this game, despite the fact they are 1-7 ATS as a favorite in this series, as well as 3-13 SU in their last sixteen games at Husky Stadium. At 4-7, the only place Washington is going is home after this contest, but there is no better incentive for a bitter rival than to dress up as the underdog at home – and put a pin in the balloon of its hated rival. Meanwhile, UDub sports the nation’s No. 20 overall defense, one that is 69 YPG superior than its adversary, and the Huskies are 6-1 SUATS as home dogs of fewer than 2.5 points. Yes, WSU had gone 3-1 ATS away this year when seeking revenge, but that number is trumped by Washington’s red-hot 6-0 SUATS series run.
|
11-26-21 |
Morehead State v. Arkansas State |
|
75-51 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This is a true home game for Arkansas State and not a neutral site tournament. The Red Wolves (soon to be possibly also be the Washington Football Team's nickname) are projected to win by seven via the SportsLine Projection Model and by 4.5 via ESPN BPI. A-State returns all five starters, 97.1 percent of minutes, 97.9 percent of scoring and 96.6 percent of rebounds from last season.
|
11-26-21 |
Wolves v. Hornets -133 |
|
115-133 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Timberwolves roasted me on Wednesday vs. the Heat -- pun intended -- and have won five straight. Is this 2004? If so, I want to buy some Facebook stock and do some blogging! Anyways, four of those Minnesota wins were at home and the fifth at awful New Orleans. Winning in Charlotte is something else entirely. The Wolves also will be without starting point guard Patrick Beverley.
|
11-26-21 |
Canucks v. Blue Jackets -138 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Canucks have now lost 7 of their last 8 games, and they really haven’t been close, only coming within a goal in 2 of those losses. The Blue Jackets have won 4 out of 5 and they are 7-3-0 at home this season. The Canucks are seriously struggling, and the Blue Jackets have a big goaltender advantage, I like the Jackets at home.
|
11-26-21 |
Iona +4 v. Belmont |
|
65-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 4 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Rick Pitino's Iona team is coming off an upset win over Alabama in which the Gaels made just 4-of-21 3-pointers. The Gaels have a balanced attack, led by forward Nelly Junior Joseph, who averages 16.3 points and 7.8 rebounds. Four starters average double figures in points. In a game where the spread is just 3.5 points, free throw shooting could prove to be crucial, and Iona ranks third in free throw attempts while Belmont checks in at No. 222. Grab the points with the hot Iona team.
|
11-26-21 |
Xavier v. Virginia Tech -4.5 |
|
59-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Folks, this is why I sit home all day monitoring numerous news feeds -- to get you guys the immediate information (and win some bets myself). Thankfully, I have an understanding wife! We crushed fading Georgia Tech earlier today because they were hit hard by the flu. Well, Xavier just ruled out starters Dieonte Miles and Colby Jones with fellow key players Jerome Hunter and Adam Kunkel as game-time decisions vs. the Hokies. The Musketeers are dealing with a flu bug, too.
|
11-26-21 |
South Alabama v. Hawaii +4 |
|
72-69 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Jaguars have had only three games against Division I teams and their offense has struggled. They have averaged just 64.3 PPG in those games. The Rainbow Warriors have a very explosive offense as they are averaging 84 PPG. All five of their starters are averaging double-digit points. Only two Jaguars are doing that. Hawaii is likely the better team so taking any points here is a good deal.
|
11-26-21 |
Panthers v. Capitals -108 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers are still without Aleksander Barkov and the Caps are still without many key players as well. However, these two teams played in Florida earlier this season and the Panthers were able to squeeze one out in OT. The Panthers have won four straight games but those were all at home. They have lost 4 straight games on the road. Home stadiums should make a bigger difference around the holidays, I like the Caps at home.
|
11-26-21 |
Colorado +24 v. Utah |
|
13-28 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 57 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units We like fading teams off record-setting performances, and with the Pac-12 title game on deck for Utah, we figure head coach Kyle Whittingham will go vanilla here before tangling with Oregon, Oregon State or Washington State. Helping Colorado’s chances is the Utes’ mediocre 3-8 ATS effort in their last eleven games against .333 or less conference opponents. Conflicting trends show the Buffs are 0-5 ATS in recent series results, but 4-1 ATS as dogs of more than 14 points in the final game of the season. In addition, coach Dorrell is 23-12 ATS when taking points, including 11-3 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win. The bottom line is Utah will be content with a ‘W’ while the Buffaloes have plenty of room to roam inside the 24-point impost
|
11-26-21 |
Jets v. Wild -125 |
|
1-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Jets are just 2-4-3 on the road this season while the Wild are 5-2-0 at home. The Jets have lost 4 straight games and they’ve scored 4 goals total in those 4 games. Both goalies have been good, but the Wild have been scoring while the Jets have not. I like the Wild at home.
|
11-26-21 |
Hurricanes v. Flyers +124 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Flyers are down a handful of injured guys, but the Hurricanes have to be fatigued in the conclusion of a six-game road trip. They look tired following back-to-back losses and are starting backup goaltender Antti Raanta. Philly's Carter Hart has been much better at home and already beat the Canes once this season -- and that was on the road.
|
11-26-21 |
Jets v. Wild UNDER 6 |
|
1-7 |
Loss |
-117 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Wild are always better defensively at home with the last line change, while Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has a 1.63 GAA and .949 save percentage through his last three starts. Winnipeg has scored just four goals combined during a four-game skid.
|
11-26-21 |
Blues v. Blackhawks +127 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
127 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks have won 4 of their last 5 home games and 5 of their last 7 games overall. The Blues have lost 6 of their last 8 games overall and 3 of their last 4 games on the road. Marc Andrew Fleury has been much better lately while Jordan Binnington has still looked iffy. I like the value in the home dog.
|
11-26-21 |
Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama +15.5 |
|
27-21 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 32 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Last year at this time the Chanticleers were undefeated and clinched a perfect regular season with a road win-no-cover at Troy, but they were denied an opportunity to win a Sun Belt title game when it was postponed due to COVID. This year, they take a 9-2 ledger into Mobile as they will once again be spectators for the conference title bout. With it, they may find it difficult getting up for an opponent that is riding an 0-3 SUATS streak. There will be no shortage of incentive for the 5-6 Jags, though, as they’re looking to pick up a win to become bowl-eligible, after going 9-26 SU the previous three seasons. A 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record in lined home gams since joining the FBS, including three SU underdog wins the last four years, catches our fancy. With CCU still warm and fuzzy from sending the seniors off in Conway last week, we’ll back a starving dog in South Alabama that stands a perfect 6-0 ATS of late as a home dog of 7 or more points.
|
11-26-21 |
Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 |
|
35-13 |
Loss |
-102 |
28 h 50 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units While the Pirates are 2-10 ATS versus undefeated conference opponents, they are playing their best ball of the season – riding a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS streak – and should be considered as dangerous as a ship full of cutthroat thieves, especially with Cincinnati just 1-6 ATS of late as a road favorite of 8 or more points. The Bearcats absolutely destroyed ECU in the Queen City last year, 55-17, so head coach Mike Houston and his Pirates should be primed for payback in their final home game of 2021. Factor in that the series host is on a 5-0 ATS streak, and that East Carolina is currently 4-0 ATS as a home dog of more than seven points, and we look for UC to have its timbers shivered in an uncomfortably close contest.
|
11-26-21 |
Utah State -15 v. New Mexico |
|
35-10 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 8 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units New Mexico will be scoreboard watching, only the Lobos will be looking at the time remaining in this game, so they can finally call an end to a miserable 3-9 season. The campaign started with some degree of promise at 2-0, but those wins came against Houston Baptist and New Mexico state, and a step up in class resulted in a 1-8 SU slide. Even worse, if we throw out the Houston Baptist game, UNM has torched the money big-time this year, going 1-9 ATS. Meanwhile, Utah State should be mad as hell after getting ambushed by the Wyoming Cowboys last week, losing 44-17 as 6-point chalk, and the Aggies have cashed four straight tickets in the series. And with USU head coach Blake Anderson now 23-3 SU and 18-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite, the likelihood of an upset is next to nil
|
11-26-21 |
SE Missouri State v. Incarnate Word +7 |
|
79-76 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This is too big of a spread for the Incarnate Word Thanksgiving Invitational game. This is a spot for Incarnate to show up in its own tournament. My model makes the Cardinals only three-point underdogs, so we are getting nearly a four-point edge. Grab the points.
|
11-26-21 |
Kansas State +3 v. Texas |
|
17-22 |
Loss |
-105 |
25 h 19 m |
Show
|
Rating: 3 Units Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in this series of late when coming off a SUATS loss, they’re also an impressive 6-0-1 ATS as road favorites or road dogs of 3 or less points. Head coach Chris Klieman does not suffer SUATS losses lightly, going 6-1 ATS in his last seven tries in that role. Coach K also boasts an 11-3 SU and 10-2 ATS mark versus .500 or fewer foes, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS the last eight. And we can’t forget last year’s horrific 69-31 loss to Texas, especially with the Horns now 3-8 ATS at home versus a revenging conference opponent. We can almost hear the “Bring Back Herman” chants as you read this. Consider that college Football teams on a 6-game-exact losing streak are 3-22 SU and 8-15 ATS at home in their final game of the regular season, including 0-5 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of fewer than 3 points.
|
11-26-21 |
Miami-FL -1 v. North Texas |
|
69-63 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Got destroyed on college hoops, I'll admit it. Still firmly believe I should have won two of the three and one was a bad beat of a lifetime. Oh well, we move on. This game is in Orlando and KenPom ranks Miami at 102 and North Texas 114. The last three games, Miami started four sixth-year players and a third-year player, owning a combined 27 seasons of experience. This early in the season, I'll take experience like that.
|
11-25-21 |
Louisville v. Mississippi State -1 |
|
72-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 30 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units CBS Sports Network has this game from the Bahamas. KenPom ranks unbeaten Mississippi State six spots ahead of Louisville nationally. The Bulldogs have trounced their first four opponents but this will be an obvious step up in competition. Louisville has a home loss to Furman on its resume and comes off a not-impressive close home win over Detroit. MSU leads the SEC in field goal percentage (52.0) and three-point field goal percentage (45.7) and has four impact transfers. Louisville is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as a dog. I believe this spread should be a few points higher.
|
11-25-21 |
Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 |
|
31-6 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 18 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units These 2 solid defenses are allowing only 39.4 combined PPG on the year (Buf 17.6 / NO 21.8). We already know that Thursday home dogs (like the Saints) have gone a perfect 0-5 O/U this season (36.8) ppg. Let’s also not forget that New Orleans has gone 0-9 O/U in their last nine Thursday games since 2013! (39.0). Yes, we’re aware the Saints are off 4 straight ‘Overs’ in a row. However, all GAME 15 < dogs of 10 < pts off 4+ overs (Saints), when the line is 50 < points is 11-27 OU since 2014. Consider as well that all AFC road favs of > 3 pts (Buf) vs any NFC opponent (NOrl), when the OU line is in the range of 38 to 52 points is 4-20 OU since 2013.
|
11-25-21 |
Bills v. Saints +6 |
|
31-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
26 h 48 m |
Show
|
Rating: 3 Units Siemian owns an 88.9 QB Rating in his four starts this season, throwing 8 TDs and 2 INTs. He is also 9-5 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in his NFL home starts, including 4-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss of more than 3 points. More important, the Saints are 5-0 ATS in this series, as well as 7-0-1 ATS as home dogs of fewer than 6 points. Knowing that New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog – and provided New Orleans shakes the injury bug – look for the Saints to improve to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on Thanksgiving Day here tonight. Consider that playing on any .500 or greater NFL non-division home dog who was a playoff team last year if they’ve won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games and they’re facing a foe coming off an ATS loss of 7 or more points is 14-1-1 since 1996.
|
11-25-21 |
Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 |
|
31-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 7 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs find themselves in another payback situation tonight, falling in last year’s Egg Bowl, 31-24. That works well with the Rebels’ money-burning 3-8 ATS record when taking on foes playing with conference revenge. Ole Miss has ridden the Lane Train to an impressive 9-2 SU record this season, but head coach Kiffin is only 3-10 ATS in games with the better record when coming off consecutive wins. And in case you missed Mississippi State’s win over Auburn, you missed a totally unflappable coach in Leach, never losing his cool despite his team starting in a 28-3 hole, then ripping off 40 unanswered points to beat the Tigers, 43-34. In tonight’s annual slugfest between two of the seven SEC teams dotting the College Football Playoff Rankings, we’ll stick with Professor Leach and MSU’s 13-1 ATS success in the second of back-to-back home games.
|
11-25-21 |
New Mexico +11.5 v. UAB |
|
73-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units No sport changes my mind about playing or not playing a game more than college basketball regarding injuries simply as they are so hard to track with nearly 400 schools in Division I. Well, I just happened across some pretty good injury news for New Mexico in this one as star guard Jaelen House, an Arizona State transfer, will play after missing the previous game, and senior guard Saquan Singleton, the Lobos’ top returning scorer/rebounder/assist leader from last year, will make his season debut off a heart abnormality. Frankly, I thought this spread was a couple of points too high regardless but now like the Lobos quite a bit in Las Vegas.
|
11-25-21 |
Baylor -12.5 v. VCU |
|
69-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Bears are much better than the Rams offensively and defensively. The VCU defense has only allowed 52 PPG so far this season, but it hasn't faced an offense like Baylor. The Bears average 85.8 PPG and shouldn't slow down today. KenPom ranks BU as the fourth-best team in the nation and VCU 91st. This spread is too small for how good the Bears are.
|
11-25-21 |
Hawaii -114 v. Illinois-Chicago |
|
88-80 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 40 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Rainbow Warriors have looked good offensively and they have a big rest advantage in this one. The Flames have been terrible offensively; they struggle to get good looks. Hawaii also should dominate the glass against Illinois-Chicago. Lay the small number and look for Hawaii to win easily.
|
11-25-21 |
Presbyterian v. New Orleans -1.5 |
|
68-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 23 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This is a true home game for New Orleans as it hosts the UNO Classic. This spread seems off via various models as SportsLine's has the Privateers winning by seven and ESPN's BPI by 10. New Orleans has perhaps the best backcourt in the Southland Conference in seniors Derek St. Hilaire (21.6 ppg) and Tony Green (10.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg). The Privateers won easily on Wednesday, while Presbyterian had to play down to the wire vs. VMI. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 at home.
|
11-24-21 |
Senators v. Sharks -160 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Senators have one victory in their past nine games and remain thinned out due to COVID/injury, including leading scorer Drake Batherson. San Jose starts James Reimer in net and we backed him to upset the Hurricanes on Monday and he did. Reimer has a 1.70 GAA at home this season.
|
11-24-21 |
76ers v. Warriors -11 |
|
96-116 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 30 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors are rested as they face the shorthanded 76ers. Philly is 2-6 SU and ATS without Joel Embiid, the wins and covers coming against the depleted Nuggets and the lowly Kings. Tobias Harris, Seth Curry and Danny Green all are questionable tonight. Even if they play, I like Golden State to improve to 8-3 ATS at home and 13-5 ATS overall. The Warriors rank first in defensive efficiency, by a wide margin, while Philly is 25th.
|
11-24-21 |
Blazers -1.5 v. Kings |
|
121-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers have struggled on the road, going 1-7 SU and ATS, but this is a good spot for them against the flailing Kings. After a poor start to the season, Damian Lillard has been outstanding over his last eight games. He had 25 points in 31 minutes last night. Sacramento is 2-7 SU at home and enters this one on a 1-8 SU and ATS skid. The Kings just lost by eight at home to a very depleted 76ers lineup. Back Portland.
|
11-24-21 |
Oilers v. Coyotes +1.5 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-145 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Hey, a decent puckline price finally on an underdog! (-140). Don't look now, but the Coyotes have won three of four and new No. 1 goaltender Scott Wedgewood has been great since being picked up off waivers as he's 3-1-1 with a 2.04 GAA with the Yotes. The Oilers are playing the second of a back-to-back and were shut down Tuesday in a loss in Dallas (we won on the Under). Edmonton also is missing a handful of injured guys.
|
11-24-21 |
Maple Leafs v. Kings UNDER 5.5 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both these teams have been very good defensively to start the season and both teams have had very good goaltending. Maple Leafs unders are 14-6 overall and 5-2 on the road while Kings unders are 13-5 overall and 7-3 at home. The Leafs have scored more than 3 goals just one time in their last 8 games while the Kings have scored more than three just once in their last 6 games. Both teams are well rested, I like the under.
|
11-24-21 |
UC San Diego +5.5 v. Montana |
|
61-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I have this game as +2.5 for UC San Diego. The Tritons have gone 3-0 against the spread so far this season, winning every game by double digits, and are facing a Montana squad that lost to North Dakota. I think we have a much closer game than five points, and UC San Diego might just win outright. Grab the points.
|
11-24-21 |
Hawks v. Spurs +4 |
|
124-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks hit the road to face the Spurs, who are in complete disarray having lost five straight. Grab Atlanta.
|
11-24-21 |
Baylor -12.5 v. Arizona State |
|
75-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 15 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Baylor Bears aren’t being talked about enough with the top tier of teams. They are stacked. They have been dominant on both ends of the court. According to KenPom, the Bears rank sixth in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Sun Devils have been very inconsistent. Their offense has had a lot of troubles and they haven’t played a defense of Baylor's caliber. Lay the points.
|
11-24-21 |
Bulls v. Rockets +9.5 |
|
113-118 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls' ascent in the Eastern Conference has been one of the best stories on the young season. But they are coming off their worst loss this season to the Pacers, 109-77. I expect this young team to have a letdown against a Rockets team that is overdue for a competitive game. Take Houston.
|
11-24-21 |
Heat v. Wolves |
|
101-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units OK, I understand the Heat are in the second of a road/road back-to-back and that Minnesota is playing much better of late, but the Heat are underdogs? That truly baffles me. Hey, I'll take it. Dating to last season, Miami has covered its past seven in the second of a B2B.
|
11-24-21 |
Lakers v. Pacers -4 |
|
124-116 |
Loss |
-107 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This is a tough spot for the Lakers. They are a veteran-laden team that will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set. They have played two back-to-back sets this season and lost the second game of both. One was an eight-point loss to the Thunder, and the other was an 18-point loss to the Bulls. While LeBron James will return from his suspension, Anthony Davis just played 34 minutes last night while sick, so he might not be in top form. I’ll lay the points with the Pacers.
|
11-24-21 |
Flyers v. Panthers UNDER 6.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Flyers are playing tonight in Tampa Bay so they will have to presumably use their backup netminder at Florida on Wednesday, but those of you who follow me know that I will never turn down an O/U of 6.5. Philly didn't exactly enter Tuesday's matchup tearing it up offensively. Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky has a 1.99 GAA. Florida remains without one of its best forwards in Aleksander Barkov, who has 17 points.
|
11-24-21 |
Jets v. Blue Jackets +120 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
120 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jackets are a completely different team at home going 6-3-0 on the season but they have also won three of their last 4 games overall. They have been scoring a lot lately and they are averaging 3.7 goals per game at home. The Jets have now lost three straight games after winning three straight games, but they have only scored 4 goals in the last 3 games. The Blue Jackets goalies haven’t been as dominant of late, but the Blue Jackets scoring has been making up for it. The Jets are just 2-3-3 on the road this season, I like the value in the home dog.
|
11-24-21 |
Canucks v. Penguins -200 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Penguins seem to have figured it out, winning their last three games and only allowing 1 total goal while doing it. They face the Canucks who are 3-5-1 on the road this season and have lost 6 of their last 7 games. Tristan Jarry has been very good for the Penguins while Thatcher Demko struggles on the road, allowing 7 goals in each of his last 2 road games. Take the Penguins at home.
|
11-24-21 |
Flyers v. Panthers -170 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 20 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Flyers were shutout last night in Tampa Bay and now they have to go to Florida, where the Panthers are 10-0 at home this season. The Flyers have lost three straight games and 5 of their last 7 games and Martin Jones should be in net instead of Carter Hart tonight. The Panthers are dominant at home and should have no trouble with a weary Flyers team despite missing Aleksander Barkov. I like the Panthers to stay undefeated at home.
|
11-24-21 |
Canadiens v. Capitals UNDER 6 |
|
3-6 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Canadiens remain without a large chunk of their top offensive players and I don't see them scoring more than one goal against Capitals netminder Ilya Samsonov, who is coming off back-to-back shutouts. Montreal does get back No. 1 goaltender Jake Allen from injury so in my scenario, we simply need him to hold Washington to four goals and we hit this under.
|
11-24-21 |
Canadiens v. Capitals -185 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Jake Allen returns tonight for the Canadiens but the Habs still have just one road win all season. The Caps have a bad taste in their mouth after losing the last game of the road trip to the Kraken and they are rested. The Caps will still be without many key players including TJ Oshie and Conor Sheary but they have continued to win. Ilya Samsonov has lost just one game this season and that was in OT. Usually I won’t play this many heavy favorites, especially on the same night, but home favorites have been winning at an incredible rate this season and home games around the holidays seem to mean more. Take the Caps at home.
|
11-24-21 |
Nicholls State v. Utah Valley |
|
63-74 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units KenPom ranks Utah Valley at No. 188 and Nicholls State 215. While the SportsLine Projection Model has the Wolverines winning by a point in the SoCal Challenge, Sagarin has them by 4.3. Utah Valley has the WAC's best player in Fardaws Aimaq, who leads the Wolverines in both scoring (22.6 ppg) and rebounding (13.2 rpg). Utah Valley returns 10 players, including three starters, from last year's squad that won a share of the WAC regular season title. The school is coached by former NBA scrub Mark Madsen -- remember him dancing years ago at a Lakers title celebration?
|
11-24-21 |
Connecticut -3 v. Auburn |
|
115-109 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 28 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This game will be the Huskies' real start to the season. They have played four really bad teams. They're averaging 92 points while shooting better than 50 percent from the field and nearly 40 percent from deep. They've allowed 51.3 points per game while holding opponents to 33 percent shooting. The Tigers got a scare from South Florida last time out. UConn is a much better team than Auburn. This spread is too small.
|
11-24-21 |
Jacksonville State v. Drexel +3.5 |
|
72-64 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Let's get our day started on a winning note from the Bahamas. Is this spread wrong? The various models appear to think so. SportsLine's has Drexel winning by two points. ESPN's BPI has the Dragons has about a point better. CAA Preseason Player of the Year Camren Wynter for Drexel will be the best player on the floor.
|
11-24-21 |
Stony Brook v. Fairfield |
|
78-83 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units KenPom ranks Fairfield 15 spots better nationally and this is a true home game for the Stags. The SportsLine Projection Model has them winning by 3. Sagarin and ESPN's BPI have it about the same. Fairfield played both Boston College and Providence tough, while Stony Brook is 0-2 on the road. Fairfield is one of four teams in the nation to welcome back more than 99 percent of its scoring and 99 percent of its minutes from last season.
|
11-24-21 |
Maryland-Eastern Shore +18 v. Campbell |
|
55-66 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This spread seems too high at least according to various models -- SportsLine's has about the highest point differential I've seen at Campbell winning by 17. Campbell is a good Big South program but UMES has had some quality outings this season, only losing to Saint Joseph's by two and winning at Fordham. The Hawks should be able to stay within this number.
|
11-24-21 |
Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan State UNDER 143.5 |
|
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units In my mind, this is going to be a defensive slog in the Bahamas. Both clubs allow only around 60 points per game. Teams are shooting 34.5 percent against Sparty and 37 percent against the Ramblers. Not like either club knows these rims, either. And, yes, that does matter. First-year Loyola head coach Drew Valentine was a graduate assistant coach on Tom Izzo's staff at Michigan State in 2013-14 and 2014-15.
|
11-23-21 |
Blackhawks v. Flames UNDER 5.5 |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 2 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both Jacob Markstrom and Marc Andre Fleury have been very good lately, and both these teams are coming off wins and shutouts in their last game. The Flames have allowed just 36 goals in 19 games while the Blackhawks have scored just 40 goals in 18 games. Fleury hasn’t allowed more than 2 goals in any of his last 4 games, and Markstrom hasn’t allowed more than 2 goals in any of his last 3 games. I like the under.
|
11-23-21 |
Oilers +100 v. Stars |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both these teams are expected to start backup goalies tonight but both backup goalies have been playing pretty well. The Stars have won just 4 of their last 10 games and they face the Oilers who have won 7 of 10. The Oilers were the best team in the league on the road last season and they’ve started 5-3-0 on the road this season. They are without Darnell Nurse because of injury and Mikko Koskinen like I mentioned, but other than that they are pretty healthy. Take the Oilers on the road in a pick ‘em.
|
11-23-21 |
Nebraska-Omaha v. Texas Tech OVER 140 |
|
40-96 |
Loss |
-114 |
10 h 60 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This number is way too low. The Red Raiders' offense has been spectacular so far this season. They are averaging 86.3 points on 48.5 percent shooting from the field. The Mavericks are terrible defensively so the Red Raiders will have an easy time scoring. And the Mavericks are good enough offensively to do their part and get this game Over.
|
11-23-21 |
CS-Fullerton v. UT-Rio Grande Valley +9.5 |
|
67-72 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The model makes this one a seven-point spread, and it looks like Texas-Rio Grande Valley should be able to keep this game within double digits. The Vaqueros play with an elevated pace and can go on scoring runs. Grab them and the points.
|
11-23-21 |
Lakers v. Knicks -185 |
|
100-106 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units LeBron James will not play so I only expect this moneyline to rise during the day -- there's also the fact the Lakers play again Wednesday so maybe they rest Russell Westbrook or Anthony Davis (although I doubt it).
|
11-23-21 |
Virginia v. Providence -2.5 |
|
58-40 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Friars are 5-0 on the season and already have taken down two Big Ten teams in Wisconsin and Northwestern. They now will face a Virginia team that struggles with an offensive efficiency rating that ranks them No. 156 in the country. No one has had an answer for Providence big man Nate Watson, who averages 18.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. The Friars are a top-50 team rebounding the ball on the defensive end, while Virginia checks in 200 spots lower in the same category. Lay the small number with the better team on a neutral court.
|
11-23-21 |
George Mason +5 v. Nevada |
|
69-88 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The wrong team is favored in this game. The Wolfpack have been terrible so far. They lost by 27 points yesterday while allowing 102 points. The Patriots have looked good on both ends of the floor. They are on fire from beyond the arc and that should continue against the Wolfpack’s terrible defense.
|
11-23-21 |
Southern Utah v. Yale +1 |
|
88-85 |
Loss |
-113 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This play is a fade on the Thunderbirds. In their three games against Division I opponents, they are 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They have looked terrible on both ends of the court and they have shown no potential to get better. The Bulldogs are really strong defensively and they have shown some sparks offensively. The Bulldogs are a much better and more experienced team. They have good chemistry and it shows on defense. Lay the points.
|
11-22-21 |
Gonzaga v. Central Michigan +34.5 |
|
107-54 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 19 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Gonzaga is the number one team in the country for good reason. The Zags are stacked. But they have their hardest game of the season Tuesday against UCLA. Once they get ahead big here, they likely will rest starters. The Chippewas' offense has shown potential. This spread is too high.
|
11-22-21 |
Hurricanes v. Sharks +137 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
137 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units No question the Hurricanes are the better, team but this is the fourth game of a six-game trip and fatigue could be setting in. Also, backup Antti Raanta is in net. He's 2-0 with a 2.27 GAA but still a downgrade from Frederik Andersen. We'll take the shot on the Sharks at home (like to do the puckline but the -190 price is ridiculous) behind James Reimer and his 1.98 GAA. At home, it's 1.94.
|
11-22-21 |
TCU -140 v. Santa Clara |
|
66-85 |
Loss |
-140 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I recommend betting this right now before oddsmakers adjust (takes longer in college hoops) as CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein just reported that Santa Clara star Josip Vrankic is out tonight vs. TCU with mono. Vrankic averages 16.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game.
|
11-22-21 |
76ers v. Kings -155 |
|
102-94 |
Loss |
-155 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Kings stink but maybe they get the interim coach bump Monday after firing Luke Walton on Sunday -- WAY overdue move, by the way. Alvin Gentry, who has coached about half the teams in the league and is well-respected, takes over. I'm basically going against Philly here, though, without Joel Embiid, Danny Green and now apparently Tobias Harris. I won't be betting my life savings on this play or anything, but if Sacramento can't beat a Philly team in the midst of a long trip and without its three best players (Embiid, Harris and Ben Simmons), well, I don't know what to say.
|
11-22-21 |
Grizzlies v. Jazz -10.5 |
|
119-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies are not expected to have Dillon Brooks or De'Anthony Melton tonight. It's a bad spot for Memphis against a surging Jazz team that's won and covered three straight. Utah has covered those three by an average of 13 points. The Jazz remember that Memphis stole Game 1 in Salt Lake City in last year's playoffs. Lay the points.
|
11-22-21 |
Wyoming v. Grand Canyon UNDER 134.5 |
|
68-61 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are great defensively. The Cowboys are allowing 54.7 points per game, including an overtime contest, while the Antelopes are yielding 56 points per game. Both teams also play a s slow pace. Look for an offensive struggle as this is the first time either team has faced a strong defense.
|
11-22-21 |
Suns -5.5 v. Spurs |
|
115-111 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Suns have won 12 games in a row, and nine of those victories have been by at least seven points. They did just play against Denver on Sunday, but neither Chris Paul, Devin Booker nor Deandre Ayton logged more than 28 minutes in the lopsided win, so they should be relatively fresh. The Spurs have lost seven of their last nine, with the two wins during that stretch coming against bad Orlando and Sacramento teams. I like the Suns to come through with another decisive victory.
|
11-22-21 |
Giants v. Bucs OVER 49.5 |
|
10-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units When Tampa Bay hosts the NY Giants under the Monday Night lights this evening a lot "OVER" developments will be in place. Tampa Bay has gone over in each of the last 6 meetings with the Giants by an average total of 59.5 PPG as well as going over in 6 of their last 7 games as home chalk of 8 or more points, and over in each of their last 3 Monday Night games. In addition the G-Men have gone over the number in 6 of their last 7 away games versus the NFC South.
|
11-22-21 |
Pacers v. Bulls -2.5 |
|
109-77 |
Loss |
-102 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This line looks cheap because the Bulls played Sunday and beat the gritty Knicks 109-103. But tonight it’s just the rudder-less Pacers trying to find themselves in Rick Carlisle’s scheme. They routed the Pelicans on Saturday to end a three-game slide, but I think Indiana's overall road woes (2-9 SU away) weigh more here than the Bulls playing yesterday.
|
11-22-21 |
Golden Knights +135 v. Blues |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units These two teams are trending in complete opposite directions with the Knights winning 7 of their last 10 games and 2 in a row, while the Blues have lost 7 of their last 10 games and 6 of their last 8. The Knights are still without many key players but Robin Lehner should be back in net after getting last game off. Jordan Binnington has lost his last 4 starts and he allowed at least 3 goals in all 4 games. The Knights are just 4-3-0 on the road but the Blues are just 4-3-1 at home.
|
11-22-21 |
Belmont v. LSU -5.5 |
|
53-83 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units My model has this one at 8.5. This is a huge matchup on the road for Belmont, and I think it might be a bit too tall of a task. The Tigers are 4-0 against the spread and have won every game by at least 16 points. Lay them with LSU.
|
11-22-21 |
Thunder v. Hawks -10.5 |
|
101-113 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta is concluding a five-game homestand during which it won the first four contests after losing six straight overall. Three of those victories came against Milwaukee, Boston and Charlotte. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City lost the first two contests of its three-game road trip and is just 2-6 away from home this season. Expect the Hawks to cruise to their fifth straight win.
|
11-22-21 |
Blue Jackets v. Sabres +106 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Dustin Tokarski should be back in net for the Sabres tonight after getting last night off, and I think a game the next day is honestly the best thing for the Sabres after giving up a game-winning goal with 1 second left last night. The Sabres are 5-3-1 at home while the Blue Jackets are just 3-3-0 on the road. The Sabres played last night but the Blue Jackets flew in from Vegas last night, so make of that what you will. Backup goalie Joonas Korpisalo is starting for the Blue Jackets and he is 2-3-0 with a 3.55 GAA. Take the Sabres at home.
|
11-22-21 |
Nevada v. South Dakota State UNDER 162 |
|
75-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This is the highest total on the board today and I'm always going Under a number this big. It's not that easy to get to 80 points in a college basketball game these days. South Dakota State is an excellent offensive team, but Nevada isn't about to get into a track meet with the Jackrabbits. The SportsLine Projection Model has this game finishing with 155 points.
|
11-22-21 |
Hofstra +9.5 v. Richmond |
|
68-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Pride are underrated. They're 1-3 but every game has been close. Dating back to last season, the Pride are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 as underdogs. The Spiders have been inconsistent, especially on defense. Their defense has been really bad the last three games and it has cost them two wins. Take the points.
|
11-22-21 |
Virginia -7 v. Georgia |
|
65-55 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 59 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Tony Bennett's Virginia squad has looked uncharacteristically shaky out of the gate, starting the season 2-2. However, Georgia may be the Power Five's worst team this season and has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating that ranks it 189th in the nation. The Cavaliers have struggled to score through four games but have a good matchup here against a Bulldogs team that has a defensive efficiency rating that is No. 230 in the country. Virginia's tight defense should smother Georgia enough to cover the number.
|
11-22-21 |
Ohio State v. Seton Hall |
|
79-76 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates took care of business against the bad teams and then beat fourth-ranked Michigan. According to KenPom, they rank 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes had two scares against bad teams at home. Their last game was their first game on the road, and they lost to unranked Xavier. Now they have to face a better team in the Pirates. Lay the small number.
|
11-22-21 |
Texas A&M v. Wisconsin -2.5 |
|
58-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 11 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I'll grab the favorite here as the model has it at -5.5 for the Badgers. This game is probably going to come down to turnovers, and Wisconsin has the edge there. The Badgers are eighth in the nation in turnovers allowed, while the Aggies are 22nd in turnovers forced. The high rate for Texas A&M has given it some good wins, but against a team that protects the ball like Wisconsin, the Aggies may have trouble covering.
|
11-22-21 |
Vermont -149 v. Oakland |
|
61-63 |
Loss |
-149 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Neutral-site game in Fort Myers, Fla. This spread is sort in the no-fly zone for me at -4 so will take the moneyline ... I do believe Vermont wins as the Catamounts are always an excellent program, winning at least a share of the America East title for five straight seasons. They already own solid victories this year over Northern Iowa and preseason Ivy League favorite Yale. KenPom ranks Vermont No. 94 nationally and Oakland 156.
|
11-22-21 |
Northern Illinois v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2 |
|
60-67 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Let's get this winning day started with an 11 a.m. ET tip from Jacksonville. Neither team is great with KenPom ranking Little Rock at No. 300 and Northern Illinois at 319. The Huskies have lost three straight in blowout fashion. They were picked to finish dead last in the MAC so I simply like Little Rock as the lesser of two evils. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Trojans winning by 6.
|
11-21-21 |
Capitals -115 v. Seattle Kraken |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Caps have won 6 of their last 7 games and they are 6-1-2 on the road this season. The Kraken have lost 6 straight and 8 of their last 9 games and they are just 3-6-0 at home. The Caps have won 4 of their last 5 road games while the Kraken have lost their last 4 home games in a row. TJ Oshie and Nic Dowd returned for the Caps last night and Vitek Vanecek will be starting tonight. The Caps know Philip Grubauer well from his time with the Caps and the Caps have already won back-to-back games on the road earlier this season. Take the Caps.
|
11-21-21 |
Indiana State +9 v. New Mexico State |
|
66-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I had this as a play at +7.5 Saturday night and the market has moved it another 1.5 points in my favor. I'll take it. The model makes this a 4.5 spread, meaning we are getting five points of value on this line by my numbers. Indiana State has quietly covered three of its first four games, including both as an underdog. This line is simply too big. I don't think Indiana State wins, but it won't lose by 10. Take the points.
|
11-21-21 |
Blackhawks v. Canucks UNDER 6 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units These two teams combine to average 4.74 goals per game and the total is 6? I'll take it. Hawks netminder Marc-Andre Fleury has allowed two goals or fewer in three straight.
|
11-21-21 |
Northeastern +2 v. Southern Illinois |
|
59-47 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The wrong team is favored here. I make Northeastern -1.5, so we are getting a nice four-point edge. Both teams have been playing decent basketball, but I think this one comes down to a bucket at the end of the game, and I'll take the points in that scenario every time.
|
11-21-21 |
Maple Leafs v. Islanders +105 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Strange that the Islanders are home dogs considering Toronto isn't starting Vezina candidate Jack Campbell in net but young Joseph Woll. The 23-year-old allowed four goals to Buffalo in his NHL debut on Nov. 13 and the Islanders are better than the Sabres.
|
11-21-21 |
UL - Lafayette +12 v. Indiana |
|
44-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This line has fallen but there's still value on Louisiana. The Ragin' Cajuns are extremely stout defensively and they have the size to make Indiana work for every basket. The Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games dating to last season, while Louisiana is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine versus teams with .600-plus winning percentages. Take the points.
|
11-21-21 |
Colorado State v. Creighton +4 |
|
95-81 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 40 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The model has Creighton favored by one point. Colorado State has only covered against Oral Roberts, failing to do so against Pine Bluff and Bradley, and now this will be their first game with a single-digit spread. I just don't see the Rams doing well enough to win by four points. If anything, the Bluejays have an advantage in the Paradise Jam semifinals because they have a tenured coach who has led them to back-to-back solid wins against Nebraska and Brown. Take the points.
|
11-21-21 |
Wild v. Lightning OVER 6 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
105 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both backup goalies should be starting in Kaapo Kahkonen and Brian Elliott, and both teams should be tired after playing last night. Brian Elliott has a 3.05 GAA and .880 save percentage but the Lightning always tend to play poorly in front of him. The Wild game had 9 goals in total while the Lightning game had 8 goals total yesterday and that was with both teams starting goalies. Take the over.
|
11-21-21 |
NC-Greensboro v. Florida International UNDER 130.5 |
|
71-74 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are terrible offensively and strong defensively. Also, the Spartans play at one of the slowest paces in the nation. The Panthers' offensive numbers are skewed due to their 111-point outburst against a non-Division I opponent. Under is the play.
|
11-21-21 |
Cowboys v. Chiefs OVER 56 |
Top |
9-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
97 h 11 m |
Show
|
5 Unit NFL Total of the Month KC can let it all hang it this week with a Bye upcoming. And ‘Bye the way’... we’ve mentioned all season long about the hot over pattern for these teams. In the long and short term. All non-div favs before their Bye Week (KC), with OU line 41 > pts is 91-51-3 O/U since 2007. All favs before their Bye Week with OU line of 45 > pts (CHIEFS) is 8-0 O/U this year. It looks like the Sharps and Squares alike will both be on the over. #1 vs #4 offense + Last team with ball wins = Arrowhead SHOOTOUT.... 37 to 34!
|
11-21-21 |
Bengals v. Raiders +1 |
Top |
32-13 |
Loss |
-109 |
92 h 55 m |
Show
|
5* NFL Game of the Week The Bengals were battered, 41-16, by the Browns in a big step-up game for Cincinnati as they enter this contest reeling with a 0-2 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) ledger, as the magical elixir that was a 5-2 SUATS start to the season has disappeared. Sure, they may be coming in with a week of rest, but the fact of the matter is the black cats are 0-6 ATS when coming off a Bye as well as 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in non-division games versus foes coming off a double-digit defeat as an underdog under head coach Zac Taylor. Consider that NFL away teams coming off one home game that was preceded by three away games are 7-17 ATS, including 1-8 SUATS versus sub .600 non-division opponents.
|
11-21-21 |
Niagara v. Youngstown State +2.5 |
|
58-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Have to say I don't get this spread whatsoever -- every model has Youngstown State as the favorite. SportsLine's has the Penguins winning by 7. ESPN's by 3.6. Sagarin's by 2.6. It's the third game in three days for both and that clearly favors the home side. Youngstown is 5-1 ATS in its past six as a dog.
|
11-21-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers -160 |
|
91-97 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I'm going to have to speculate on the status of Luka Doncic as the Mavs say he's a game-time call and I wouldn't like the Clippers as much if he does. I happened to watch a video feed of him going through pre-game warmups and it sure doesn't look to me like he's playing, so we'll back LA.
|
11-21-21 |
Ravens v. Bears +5 |
|
16-13 |
Win
|
100 |
89 h 3 m |
Show
|
Rating: 3 Units We realize the Monsters of the Midway tend to stay in a deep sleep following Bye weeks, but a four-game losing streak has the natives restless. The price range also puts the Bears in a good situation, as they’re 8-2 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 4 or more points, while bumbling Baltimore shows up 0-5 ATS as non-division road favorites of more than 3 points. Like Shakira’s hips, these numbers don’t lie.
|
11-21-21 |
Packers v. Vikings +2.5 |
Top |
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
89 h 57 m |
Show
|
4* NFC Division Game of the Day Kirk Cousins had a fine day in leading the Vikings past the Chargers last Sunday, when he completed 25-of-37 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns, as the Vikes moved up to the No. 8 seed position in this year’s NFL playoff picture, as they now trail the Pack by 3.5 games in the NFC North. With it, we love fading teams with huge leads in divisional matchups, especially against those that are scratching and clawing to earn a playoff berth. Green Bay’s lousy rush defense allows 4.6 Yards Per Rush, which fits like a glove into Minnesota’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Consider that Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 10-4 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 4-0 ATS in division games. Also playing against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is 21-0 ATS since 1980.
|
11-21-21 |
Villanova v. Purdue -130 |
|
74-80 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Boilermakers have been rolling all season and had their first true test against North Carolina on Saturday, winning and covering 93-84. Not only do I think Purdue is the better team in this matchup, but it also has way more size than Villanova. I don’t see how the Wildcats will be able to slow down Purdue big man Trevion Williams, who was a 2020-21 All-Big Ten selection. Take the Boilermakers to cover the small number against a Villanova team that lives and dies by the 3-pointer.
|
11-21-21 |
Boise State v. Ole Miss -120 |
|
60-50 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I'm going moneyline to avoid a backdoor cover but the spread (1.5) should be at least a few points higher according to various models. The SportsLine Projection Model has Ole Miss as 3 points better. ESPN's power rankings 4 points. Ole Miss is averaging 80.3 points per game on 50 percent field goal shooting
|
11-21-21 |
Old Dominion v. Pennsylvania +2.5 |
|
63-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Quakers have looked really good even with a 2-4 record. They have had a tough schedule. The Monarchs have had an easy schedule but have looked terrible. Their offense is a mess. The last two games, they scored 96 points combined on 30.4 percent shooting. The wrong team is favored in this game.
|