Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-13-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST, August 13, 2021 4-UNIT best Bet on the OVER The weather has been scorching hot with humidity in the mid-90% range. The ball will fly out of Citizen’s Bank Park and pitcher’s will be taxed by these difficult conditions. 60% of the betting tickets are on the UNDER, but 63% of the money is on the OVER. Reds are 21-10 OVER when facing a struggling bullpen that converts no more than 38% of their save opportunities this season; 25-12 when facing a starter that averages 5 or more K’s-per-start, this season. Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Play |
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08-07-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati 7:10 PM EST, Saturday, August 7, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER The Reds are 33-15 OVER when playing against a losing record team this season and 10-2 when that opponent has a win percentage below 38%. They are also 13-2 OVER when facing a NL foe that is allowing an average of 5 or more runs-per-game this season. Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet |
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08-07-21 | Mets v. Phillies -113 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
NY Mets vs Philadelphia 4:05 PM EST, Saturday, August 7, 2021 4-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies The Phillies won the first game of this 3-game series and will look to win the series this afternoon. Left-hander Ranger Suarez will be on the hill for the Phillies and he has excellent ‘stuff’ that will dominate am extremely weak hitting Ny Mets squad, who is just 12-22 when facing LH SP this season. Plus, the Mets are a money burning 4-10 in road games with double revenge. Bet the Phillies for a 4-UNIT Amount using the money line |
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07-28-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
LA Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants 9:45 PM EST, July 28, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER The OVER is a solid 142-77-2 for 65% winning bets spanning the last 25 seasons involving a team that has an above average slugging percentage of 0.425 and higher and is batting 0.225 or lower spanning their last 10 games and facing a team that has a strong bullpen posting a season-to-date WHIP of 1.35 or lower. Dodgers manager Roberts is 26-13 OVER when facing a team that is batting 0.245 or worse; 41-20 OVER in road games facing a NL opponent that is batting 0.250 or lower with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Dodgers are 13-2 OVER off a loss to a divisional rival this season. |
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07-28-21 | Rockies v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Colorado vs LA Angels 9:38PM EST, July 28, 2021 8-Unit Best Bet UNDER the posted total Colorado skipper Black is a solid 53-27 UNDER as a road underdog between +150 and +199; 37-19 when facing an AL West opponent. Rockies are on a 23-9 run UNDER when facing an AL West opponent over the last two seasons. Colorado is 20-9 UNDER when facing a AL team that is batting 0.265 or lower in games played over the last two seasons. Team that are playing their last game of the current series, starting a left-handed starter, lost the previous game by at least 5-runs, and are installed as –200 to –225 home favorites are 11-6-1 UNDER for 65% winning bets. Bet the UNDER for a 8-UNIT amount. Toronto vs Boston 7:10 ET, July 27, 2021 8-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER Toronto is 20-8 UNDER when facing a host that has a winning record in the second-half of the season. Boston is 11-3 when facing an AL team with a 0.265 batting average or lower in games played in the second half of this season. Boston is 13-5 UNDER when facing a team that is averaging at least 1.25 home runs per game this season. Bet the UNDER as a 8-UNIT (4%) best bet. |
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07-28-21 | Braves v. Mets -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Atlanta Braves vs NY Mets 4-Units betting the Mets using the money line 7:10 PM EST, July 28, 2021 The Mets are still holding on the lead in the NL East, but not because of their 19th-league best 0.237 team batting average or their 18th-league best 3.9 RPG. In fact, they are dead last socinrg an average of 3.5 RPG in home games. However, this is a game they can win and with some above average offensive production according to my machine learning models and applications. In a somewhat rare offensive occurrence, the Braves win over the Mets yesterday, saw them score in 5 innings and each one was a multiple run inning too. Teams that have scored in 5 innings and each one was scoring more than 1 run in their previous game are just 7-16 for 30% when installed as a road dog, in games played over the last five seasons. Braves are just 11-23 in road games having won two of their last three games spanning the last two seasons. Bet the NY Mets using the money line. |
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07-26-21 | Reds +130 v. Cubs | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs Chicago Cubs 4-Units betting the OVER. 8:05 PM EST, July 26, 2021 The Reds are 26-15 OVER when facing a team with a losing record this season; 14-5 OVER following three or more divisional games; 28-17 when the total has been between 7 and 8.5 this season. Take the OVER for a 4-UNIT Best Bet |
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07-26-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
Toronto vs Boston 7:10 ET, July 26, 2021 4-Unit Best Bet on the Boston Red Sox using the money line. This season, Toronto has been a money-burning 24-38 when facing a team with a winning record. Boston is a stout 41-22 this season, when facing a solid bullpen unit sporting a WHIP of 1.35 or lower. They are also 59-33 when facing a team whose hitter’s strikeout an average of at least 7 times per game, this season. Bet the Boston Red Sox using the money line. |
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07-24-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Colorado vs LA Dodgers 9:10 PM EST, July 24, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER Rockies SP Freeland is 9-1 UNDER when facing teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least one run-per-game and 14-3 UNDER when facing teams that are averaging 1.25 or more home runs-per-game. He is also 18-2 UNDER as a road dog of at least +150 and 13-3 in road games played at night spanning the last three seasons. Betting the UNDER in game lined at 7 to 8.5 runs involving a road team that has a solid 2.50 ERA over his last 5 starts and after a game in which their bullpen blew a save has earned a 47-13 UNDER record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. This angle is already 8-2 this season. |
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07-24-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Washington vs Baltimore 6:35 PM EST, July 24, 2021 4-Unit Best bet OVER the posted total. Here are a few quick hitting bullet points supporting and reinforcing the OVER bet identified first by my machine learning applications. Baltimore is 33-17 OVER when facing a SP that is allowing an average of 5.5 or fewer-hits-per-game on the season, in games played this season. Washington is 15-5 OVER in games played over the last two seasons in which the total was 9 or 9.5-runs. Scherzer is struggling with a 6.48 ERA over his last three starts and allowing 11 ER in his last two starts at home and on the road against the San Diego Padres. Bet the OVER for a 4-UNIT amount. |
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07-24-21 | Nationals v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Texas vs Houston 4-Units betting the UNDER. 7:10 PM EST, July 24, 2021 Keep an eye out for Texas starter Kyle Gibson in the news today. This may be his last start before being traded to a contender and it is possible, he could get moved prior to this start. He must start for this play to be valid. He is 4-2 with a 2.41 ERA and a 1.219 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Astros. He has faced the Astros three times in 2021 and has pitched well in each one. On June 15 he completed six innings and allowed 1 ER on seven hits. May 21, he completed 6 innings, allowing 1 ER on four hits, and on May 16, he completed 7 innings allowing 2 ER on four hits. Texas has completely fallen apart as a MLB team having lost 10 consecutive games. Over their last 7 games they have averaged just 1.4 RPG and batted 0.156 with a 0.214 OBP. Houston is 19-2 against Texas with the UNDER sporting a 13-8 record spanning the last three seasons. In 2021, the UNDER is 6-2-1 in this matchup. Take the UNDER |
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07-23-21 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Detroit vs Kansas City 5-Unit best bet on the OVER The Tigers have suddenly won seven consecutive games and are on the verge of being included in the AL Wild Card race as one of the long shot contenders. They are hitting the ball and scoring runs. They are 9-4-1 OVER for 69% in road games and facing a left-handed SP. They are also 16-5 OVER this season when facing opponents that average three or fewer walks-per-game. Detroit will have Wily Peralta on the hill and in six starts he has posted a 1.71 ERA and 0.947 WHIP and very impressive 0.47 ERA and a 0.842 WHIP spanning this last three starts. He made his first start June 19 and allowed 5 ER in an 8-3 loss to the Angels. Since, he ash allowed 1 ER over his last 5 starts, but he is vulnerable to a significant regression in this matchup based on the machine learning applications. Kris Bubic will start for Kansas City and he has been hammered to the tune of a 10.38 ERA and a 2.154 WHIP spanning his last three starts. He has allowed 5 ER in each of these starts. Take the OVER |
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07-18-21 | Padres -104 v. Nationals | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals 1:05 ET, July 18, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the San Diego Padres using the money line Let us start with a betting system that has earned a highly profitable 48-17 record good for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on a road team that is starting a pitcher working on extra rest (more than 5-days) and the road team has posted a 0.350 or better on-base-percentage spanning their last 20 games. This supports the bet on the Padres. Neither starter for this game came into the All-Star break pitching in good form. However, I do like the fact that Musgrove has produced a 3.18 ERA and aq 0.996 WHIP when starting on grass fields this season. Nationals starter Mad Max has been solid all season, except for his last three starts where he posted a 5.17 ERA and 1.149 WHIP. His last start was against the Padres July 8 and was a horrid one lasting just 3 2/3 innings allowing 7 ER and 2 HR. Yesterday’s game was suspended in the bottom of the sixth inning with the Padres leading 8-4 and my understanding is that this game will be completed prior to the start of this game. From the predictive models, we expect that the Padres will have at least 1 Multiple-Run Inning. When they have had at least one MRI as a road favorite they have produced a 14-7 SU record this season and 33-17 for 67% winning bets over the last three seasons. Very consistent returns in this role. |
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07-18-21 | Mets v. Pirates +125 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
NY Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1:05 PM EST, July 18, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Pirates using the money line Betting a NL team that is facing a SP with a season-to-date WHUP of 1.15 or lower and has a very poor bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.75 and higher over their last 20 games has earned a 58-30 record good for 66% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Pirates and Mets have played 7 consecutive games against one another with a 4-game series prior to the All-Star break and this current 3-game set. The Pirates have done very well against the Mets winning four of the six games played and have a chance to sweep this 3-game set today. The Mets bullpen has been absolutely horrible and the All-Star break has done little to help this struggling unit. They have posted a 9.00 ERA and a 2.077 WHIP over their last seven games and six of these games have been against a bad team in the Pirates. Same result today and the Pirates get a rare sweep. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns 9:00 ET. July 17, 2021 4-Unit Best bet on the Milwaukee Bucks plus the points I like making these types of underdogs a combination wager comprised of 80% of your normal 4-UNIT bet size on the line and 20% more on the money line. Over the course of a season, the money line bet will outperform the spread-only wager. From my predictive models, the Bucks are expected to shoot better, and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio over the Suns. In past games, in which the Bucks met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a remarkable 106-1 SU and 94-11-2 ATS for 90% winning bets over the last 3 seasons. |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks OVER 221.5 | Top | 100-120 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks I will get right to it and the models are heavily on the OVER in Game-3 of the 2021 NBA Finals. Betting the OVER with a home team in a game with a total of 220 or more points, that has lost three consecutive times to the current opponent and playing their fourth game in the past 10 days has earned a 74-37-3 record OVER in regular and post-season games spanning the past five seasons. If the game is a playoff game, then the OVER is a near-perfect 14-1 OVER for 93% winning bets. In addition, home favorites of not more than 4-points and including all home dogs and having no more than 4-days between their previous series game have earned a 32-10-1 OVER record for 62% winning bets. From the predictive tools, the Bucks re expected to attempt at least 90 shots in Game-3 and over the past three seasons, they are 49-28-1 OVER for 64% winning bets when playing at this fast pace. They were the fastest paced team in the NBA this season. In road games, the Suns are 31-15-2 OVER when their opponent has attempted at least 90 shots over the past three seasons. Bet the OVER as a 5-UNIT Best Bet |
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07-10-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 103 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
St. Louis vs Chicago Cubs 7:15 PM EST, July 10, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER Betting the UNDER with a road team in games where the total is 7 to 8.5 with a starting pitcher posting a season-to-date WHIP is 1.250 to 1.300 and who gave up no earned runs in his last start has earned an outstanding 39-16-5 record good for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. Kim is in great form posting an ERA of 2.76 and WHIP of 1.164 over his last three starts. Davies has posted a strong 2.40 ERA and a 1.067 WHIP spanning his last three starts. Cardinals skipper Schildt is 16-4 UNDER following a game in which his team allowed 10 or more runs. |
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07-10-21 | Pirates v. Mets UNDER 6 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Pirates vs NY Mets 4:10 PM EST, July 10, 2021 Tyler Anderson (L) vs Marcus Stroman (R) 4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER You may have seen my Tweet earlier this morning that stated the Mets are 6-0 UNDER in games with a posted total of 5.5 or lower-runs this season. DeGrom has accounted for 4 of these games and Stroman, the other two games. Further, the Mets are 16-5 UNDER making $1,100 for the $100 bet in home games with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season this season; 21-9 UNDER making $1,120 per $100 bet as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. Stroman is 7-0 UNDER in home starts this season. Pittsburgh will have LH Tyler Anderson on the rubber and he is great form posting a 2.41 ERA and a 0.911 WHIP spanning his last three starts. In 6 day-game starts, he has a 3.06 ERA and 1.076 WHIP. Stroman is not in top form, but he has a strong history of bringing his best starts following a poor stretch. In 14 grass field starts, he has posted a 2/03 ERA and 1.102 WHIP and has allowed only 6 HR. Take the UNDER. |
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07-10-21 | A's -132 v. Rangers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
Oakland vs Texas This bet has absolutely nothing to do with last night’s disappointing loss to the Texas Rangers. This bet though does illustrate the absence of any emotional hangover connected to that loss. So many times, I have heard clients and friends alike, state that they would never bet on “Team-X” after they screwed them with a loss the night before. Do not do that to yourself as it does prevent you from objectively looking at the current day’s betting lineup. Also, because we lost with the A’s last night does not guarantee a win today. My career, like all other sports betting professionals in based on a 365-day vision that resets every morning. Betting on AL road teams that are starting an excellent pitcher with a season-to-date ERA of 3.50 or lower and facing a host with a starter that has won fewer than 30% of his starts on the season has earned a 29-5 record good for 85% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the last three seasons, this betting query has gone undefeated with an 8-0 record. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
LA Clippers (56 - 33) At Phoenix (62 - 24) Monday, 6/28/2021 9:00 PM Western Conference - Conference Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 5 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points Betting on home favorites of 3 to 9 points and are coming off a game in which they held the opponent to 35% or worse shooting in games played over the last five seasons has earned a 31-6 SU record and 29-8 ATS for 78% winning bets. The UNDER is a solid 23-14 record for 62.2% wins. The predictive models and machine learning applications predict that Phoenix will score at least 112 points and make at least 85% of their free throws. In past home games, in which the Suns met or exceeded this pair of measures has produced a 22-11 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Phoenix vs LA Clippers Game – 4 of the Western Conference Finals Saturday, 6/26/2021 9:00 PM EST 5- UNIT Best Bet on the Clippers using the money line. Bet on home teams that are facing a foe that has covered 8 or more of their last 10 games and is playing only their 4th game in the past 10 games has earned a 26-14 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons and a remarkable 10-3 ATS for 77% in the playoffs. Phoenix is 4-16 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points to a divisional rival in games played over the last 3 seasons. From the predictive side of things, the Clippers are 50-11 ATS for 82% winning bets in home games when scoring 112 or more points and having a better 3-point shooting percentage than their opponent. |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Milwaukee 8:30 PM EST, 6-25-21 NBA 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks Atlanta does not fare well against teams, like Milwaukee, who defend the perimeter to contest shots, and not look to clog the passing lanes looking for steals. The Hawks are just 8-21 ATS in road games when facing a team that averages 14 or fewer forced turnovers-per-game in games played over the last two seasons. Betting on favorites that are revenging a previous loss installed as a favorite of 7 or more points and is now facing an opponent that is coming off two or more upset wins has earned an outstanding 55-23 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the last 20 NBA seasons. When this situation has occurred in the playoffs, the record has been 20-6 SU, 17-9 for 65% ATS, and the UNDER 18-8. Bet the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points. |
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06-23-21 | A's v. Rangers +131 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 131 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Oakland vs Texas Wednesday, 6/23/2021 8:05 PM James Kaprielian (R) vs. Mike Foltynewicz (R) 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Texas Rangers using the money line. Betting on home underdogs between +125 and +175 using the money line that are batting 0.250 or lower over their last 20 games, and coming off a dismal performance with their bullpen getting hammered for 8 or more runs has earned a highly profitable 25-11 record good for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. The $100 bettor has made $2,450 by wagering an average +145 underdog bet. For his career, Foltynewicz is 10-1 in home games in the month of June, so expect a much better performance from him tonight in Arlington, TX. |
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06-23-21 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 13-12 | Win | 101 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
Washington vs Philadelphia 1:05 ET, June 23, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER Betting the OVER in game with a total between 8.5 and 10-runs, the home team has a paltry 0.300 or lower slugging percentage on the season and is starting average starting pitcher sporting a WHIP between 1.35 and 1.49 for the season and is now facing a team putting out a solid starting pitcher sporting a WHIP of 1.25 or less on the season has earned a 46-15 record for 76% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Washington starts Erick Fedde, who has been incredibly good and has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts spanning the past 19 innings of work. However, my predictive models indicate that the scoreless innings streak is going to come to an abrupt end this afternoon. The Phillies have Velasquez on the hill, who has been largely inconsistent and in three days starts has been shelled to the tune of an 8.25 ERA and 1.667 WHIP spanning just 12 innings of work. In nine grass starts he has allowed 10 home runs. From the predictive side of things, we learn that the Phillies in home games that saw both starting pitchers combine for fewer than 10 innings pitched, the OVER gets the money with 38-15-1 record and 72% winning bets over the last three seasons. Moreover, 12-5 OVER if the game starts before 6:00 ET. |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers Game-5 Eastern Conference Playoffs 7:30 PM EST, June 16, 2021 4-unit Best Bet on the 76ers minus the points Embiid is expected to play tonight and I recommend making this bet about 10-minutes prior to game time. Another option, which is what I will do, is bet 50% of my normal 4% amount at 4:00 ET and then look to add 25% in-game at 76ers +3.5 and then 25% 76ers at pick-em. Another in-game strategy is bet the 76ers line after the Hawks score 10 or more unanswered points. All of the these betting strategies are valid just for the first-half. Atlanta shot 37% from the field in their 103-100 win in Game-4. Note that road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that shot less than 40% in the previous game which they won are just 10-34 SU and 17-27 ATS for 38% and 27-17 UNDER. Not a recommendation for the UNDER on my part. Philadelphia will get it done in game-5 no matter how many minutes Embiid plays tonight. My machine learning models predict that the 76ers will score at least 117 points. The implied final score based on a 224 point total and the 76ers favored by 7 points is a 76ers 116-108 home win. In past home games in which the 76ers scored at least 115 points and had more fast break points than their guest did has earned an incredible 42-3 SU record, 37-8 ATS mark for 82% winning bets and 32-13 to the OVER. |
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06-11-21 | 76ers -120 v. Hawks | Top | 127-111 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
June 11, 2021, Best Bets Philadelphia vs Atlanta Friday, 6/11/2021 at 7:30 PM 4-UNIT Best bet on the 76ers using the money line Let’s start with a tried-and-true betting angle that has earned a 24-10 ATS record for 71.2% winning bets over the past five seasons including the playoffs. The requirements are to bet on a team involved in a game lined within 3.5 points on either side of pick-em and is facing an elite opponent that has won 12 of their last 15 games. This backs the 76ers. From the predictive models, there is a high expectation that the 76ers will exceed 115 points in this game, have fewer turnovers, and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past road games in which the 76ers met or exceeded these expectations has earned bettors backing the 76ers a solid 99-12 SU and 88-24 ATS for 78.2% winning bets over the last five seasons including the playoffs. |
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06-07-21 | Bucks v. Nets -110 | Top | 86-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Brooklyn Monday, 6/7/2021 7:30 PM 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Nets The money line is the way to go on this play given the skinny line right now pricing the Nets as 1.5-point home favorites. Pinnacle (Pinny) is offering a money line price of -111 currently and is cheaper than other books line price of -1.15 with -110 vig. This play will be graded as a money line play. Nets are a solid 36-15 ATS when they have faced an opponent that has made 46% or more of their shot attempts this season; 16-9 ATS after game number 41 of this. Season and many of those games did not have the big-3 on the court together. Betting on home teams using the money line after game number 41, in a matchup of excellent ball handling teams committing no more than 14.5 turnovers-per-game, are excellent free throw shooting teams making at least 79% of their attempts, and the opponent has made 70 to 75% of their free throw attempts on the season has earned an outstanding 73% winning bets on a 77-29 record spanning the last five seasons. Moreover, since the rise in scoring that started three seasons previous and has averaged 111 to 112.1 PPG, the previous betting angle has earned an outstanding 46-10 SU record good for 82% winning bets. |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Philadelphia Sunday, 6/5/2021 1:00 PM 4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER Getting right to the point, the UNDER sports a perfect 11-0 UNDER record in Game-1 of a playoff series spanning the past five seasons. Three seasons past, the NBA scoring average jumped from 106 PPG to 111 PPG and has inched higher in each of the last three seasons to this seasons 112.2 PPG. So, it is important that the aforementioned angle is considering only the past five seasons because previous to that slice of games, there were few playoff games with totals of 220 or more points. The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid for at least this game and clearly points to head coach Doc Rivers putting 100% of the focus on the 76ers tremendous defensive presence led by Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle. Simmons started Game-5 as the Center in their close-out and dominating win over the Washington Wizards. Moreover, as I had suggested for weeks on the Predictive Playbook shows (Monday through Friday starting at 4:15 ET), the 76ers finally started Thybulle and it worked better than my expectations. Atlanta’s best player is Trey Young and all season long, Simmons has been assigned to defend the best player on the opponent’s team. No doubt this will happen once again in this game and the series. Earlier this season, Simmons, defended Yannis and held him to career lows in scoring for a first half and the Bucks scored just 29 pts in that first-half of action. The Knicks are listed as the best defensive unit in the Eastern Conference, but that is before you factor in [pace-of play, which the 76ers play much faster tempo than the Knicks have this season. The 76ers are the best defensive unit by a large margin in the Eastern Conference and that defense will come to the forefront this afternoon. The Hawks are 6-1 UNDER when revenging two double-digit losses to the current opponent. |
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06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets -4 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Brooklyn Saturday, 6/5/2021 7:30 PM 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets Let’s start with a betting angle that has earned a solid 64-33 record for 66% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on home teams (Nets) in a matchup of winning record teams and now facing an opponent has covered the spread in their last three games installed as a favorite. The Nets are 30-14-1 ATS when facing an opponent that is making at least 46% of their shot attempts on the season in this season. They are also 35-16-2 ATS this season when facing a team that is scoring at least 112 PPG (League Average). The machine learning applications predict that the Nets will score at least 115 points in this game. The Bucks are just 15-33 SU and 7-41 ATS in road games and have allowed at least 115 points spanning games played over the last three seasons. |
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06-05-21 | Rays -144 v. Rangers | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
TAMPA BAY (35 - 23) at TEXAS (23 - 35) Saturday, 6/5/2021 4:05 PM Rich Hill (L) vs. Kolby Allard (L) The last time these two teams hooked up for a series it did not go well for the Tampa Bay Rays, who were swept in that 3-game series. Making it even more shocking is that it was a 3-gae sweep by the Rangers on the road. The Rangers won 8-3, 5-1, and 6-4 back on April 13,14, and 15. Making matte3rs worse for the Rays is they lost Game-1 of this series last night to the Rangers making it four straight losses. The good news for the Rays is the following betting angle and system supports them quite well. Betting on teams that are revenging a 4-game losing streak to the current opponent and is a non-divisional matchup. This set of parameters has earned a remarkable 47-22 record good for 68% winning bets. If you like this play a lot, as I do, you can bet the Run Line knowing that this angle has gone 38-20 for 65.5% making the $100 bettor a $2,010 profit. So, alternative bet is to bet 80% of your average bet size on the money line and then add 20% more using the Run Line. This combination wager will optimize the betting opportunity and add more profits to the bottom line over the course of the season. |
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06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
LA CLIPPERS (49 - 28) at DALLAS (45 - 32) Friday, 6/4/2021 9:00 PM 5-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER The American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas, will be filled with passionate Maverick fans, but the LA Clippers will still be considered the favorites in this Game-6 Elimination game despite trailing 3-2 in the series. Granted, 2-points is not much of a road favorite, and I do see the Mavericks as undervalued by the betting markets. The last time the first five games of an NBA playoff series went to the visitors was the 1994-95 season Western Conference finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets, which the Rockets did win 4-2 and then went on to sweep the Orlando Magic in four games for the NBA Championship. Houston won on the road by 21 points at San Antonio and then closed at the series in Houston in Game-6 by the final score of 100-95. The following NBA Betting angle is one of my more complex mathematical gems, but it is not that difficult to understand. What matters I that the angle has won 68% of the UNDER bets made over the last five seasons on a remarkable 74-35-2record. Bet the under with a road team playing with revenge. The road team’s average points scored in their road games added to the opponents average points allowed in their home games is 2.5% greater than the posted total. The UNDER has won the money in at least 50% of the opponent’s home games on the season. This set of game parameters has gone an incredible 20-2-2 for 91% winning UNDER best in the 2020 season including winning the last 10 games. This season, Dallas is 17-3 UNDER when facing an opponent that is making 48% or more of their field goal attempts; 10-3 UNDER when facing teams making at least 39% of their 3-point shot attempts and 6-2 UNDER since the mid-point of the 2020 regular season. |
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05-31-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 230 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
PHILADELPHIA (52 - 23) at WASHINGTON (35 - 42) Monday, 5/31/2021 7:00 PM Game-4 First Round 4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total. The 76ers certainly have dominated this series over the first three games and there is little reason to believe this series will extend beyond tonight’s game. However, the UNDER is the preferred best bet to make. Betting on the UNDER with all teams where the total is 230 or more points after having won four or five of their last six games, and is playing no more than their 6th game in the past 14 days. The 76ers are 13-3 to the UNDER when on the road in a game with a total of 230 or more points over the past three seasons. Over the past 25 season, the 76ers are 18-4 UNDER in Game-4 of a playoff series. The Wizards are 15-7 UNDER coming off a double-digit loss this season. Bet the UNDER in Game-4. If the total is below 230, it does not invalidate this bet. So, even if it is 228 points, for instance, the bet is on the UNDER. |
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05-30-21 | Nets -7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 141-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
BROOKLYN (50 - 25) at BOSTON (38 - 38) Sunday, 5/30/2021 7:00 PM NBA 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points and with that opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points has earned a highly profitable 42-11 SU and 37-14-2 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. Brookyln is 32-17 ATS (+1370 per $100 bet) when facing teams scoring at or above the NBA League average of 112 or more points-per-game this season. Boston is just 4-18 ATS (-1550 per $100 bet) when facing teams who average 7 or fewer steals-per-game this season. Plus, Boston is just 7-22 ATS in home games facing defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game in the second half of each of the last three seasons. Take the Brooklyn Nets minus the points. |
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05-30-21 | Lightning -103 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
TAMPA BAY (39-18-0-4, 82 pts.) at CAROLINA (40-12-0-10, 90 pts.) Sunday, 5/30/2021 5:00 PM Central Division Playoffs Betting on any team, in this matchup Tampa bay, using the money line) off a home win where they shut out their opponent and now facing an opponent coming off a road win over a division rival has earned a highy profitable 28-5 over the last 5 NHL seasons. Tampa Bay is an outstanding 70-30 against the money line ($2525 for the $100 bettor) when facing a good starting goalies saving at least 91.5% of shots in games played over the last three seasons. |
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05-30-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -165 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
SAN FRANCISCO (32 - 20) at LA DODGERS (31 - 21) Sunday, 5/30/2021 4:10 PM KEVIN GAUSMAN (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) The Dodgers Kershaw is a remarkable 133-47 (+$5000-per$100 bet ) when facing teams stranding avg of 6.9 or fewer runners on base-per-game. His team record is 24-13 when starting against San Francisco Giants with an ERA of 1.77 and a WHIP of 0.873. The active players on the Dodgers roster have combined to hit Gausman for a 0.324 batting average. Leading the list is Mookie Betts, who is batting 0.439 with a 0.404 OBP in 47 plate appearances against Gausman. The Giants Buster Posey is batting 0.221 in 120 career plate appearances when facing Kershaw. Take the LA Dodgers using the money line over the San Francisco Giants. |
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05-29-21 | Jazz -5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 121-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 9:30 PM ET Game 3: Series tied 1-1 Jazz @ Grizzlies FedExForum, Memphis, TN 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points This series is tied at 1-game a piece, but Utah is clearly the much better team in this matchup with the Grizzlies. What I like most, is that the Jazz have produced a 0.31 free throw to field goal attempt ratio. This means that they are taking 31% of the total field goals attempted over the first two games, and means they are getting to the charity stripe at a high rate. The Jazz will look to get this ratio to an evem higher level, which puts the Grizzlies in potential foul trouble in the first half. The Grizzlies are not nearly as deep as the Jazz and it will be a monumental advantage to the Jazz if they make more free throws than the Grizzlies. From the predictive side of things, the ML models project that the Jazz will shoot at least 48% from the field and make at least 20 free throws. Over the past three seasons, playoff teams that have met or erxceeded these performance measures have earned a 48-8 SU record and 42-12 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the last three playoff seasons. Bet the Utah Jazz as a 8-UNIT Best Bet minus the points. |
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05-29-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
NY ISLANDERS (36-19-0-7, 79 pts.) at BOSTON (37-16-0-8, 82 pts.) Saturday, 5/29/2021 8:00 PM 4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the pposted total. Betting the Over with a road team revenging a close loss to the current opponent of no more than a single goal, and are coming off three consecutive wins against division rivals has won 75% of bets replaced on a 27-9 record spanning the last 10 seasons. The Islanders are 21-11 OVER revenging a close loss to the current opponent of 1 goal or less over the last two seasons. |
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05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 228 | Top | 132-103 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 7:00 PM ET Game 3: PHI leads series 2-0 76ers @ Wizards Capital One Arena, Washington, DC The 76ers have dominated the Wizards through the first two games and there is no reason not to expect that domination again here in Game-3. The 76ers are the best defensive team in the NBA, in my opinion, and will focus even more attention on the defensive end in this road game. This season, the 76ers are 13-4 UNDER when facing an opponent that averages a minimum of six or more made 3-point shots-per-game OR attempts an average of 18 3-point shot attempts-per-game. Betting the UNDER in a playoff game with a total of at least 225 or more points and one of the teams averages at least 7 steals-per-game has earned a 27-17-1 UNDER record good for 61% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Plus, 76ers are 15-4 UNDER in a road game and coming off an UNDER game this season. Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle are two of the best defensive players in the NBA. Simmons is a definite contender for the Defensive Player of the Year award and Thybulle’s defensive measures are insanely good because he is averaging about 20-minutes-per-game. His minutes are increasing in the playoffs and despite being a guard, he is averaging a series-leading 3.5 blocks-per-game. In addition to his defensive prowess, Simmons has averaged a triple-double in this series averaging 12 assists-per-game, 12 rebounds-per-game, and 14 PPG. Simmons is very strong 6-11 point guard and Bradley Beal has admitted that it is much more difficult to score poinnts when he is defended by Simmons. My machine learning applications are ex[ecting no more than 88 shot attempts by the 76ers. They are 18-6 UNDER for 75% winning bets, this season, when they have attempted no more than 88 shots. Bet the UNDER in Game-3 |
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05-29-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Blazers | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 4:00 PM ET Game 4: DEN leads series 2-1 Nuggets @ Trail Blazers Moda Center, Portland, OR 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets plus the points and sproinkle a bit more on the money line. Denver, despite its injuries, took back home court with a win in Game 3 Thursday night in Portland. The Trail Blazers went ice-cold from beyomd the arc in their 120-115 loss, shooting 14-for-45, and the Nuggets took advantage by having made the defensive adjustments they did for Gasme-3. I do not see Portland being able to offset the adjustments that Denver made in game-3 and they are expected to lose this game at home. With a Game-4 win, Denver then will have a home elimination game for Game-5. Denver has gotten the usual stellar performance from MVP favorite Nikola Jokic, but it has been the role players who have given the Nuggets an edge in the series. Campazzo nearly had a triple-double in Game 3 (11 points, eight rebounds and eight assists) and took a borderline charge on Nurkic, who fouled out in the fourth quarter. Campazzo is a 30-year-old NBA rookie who has been thrust into a starting role with injuries to Murray, Will Barton and PJ Dozier, and he has responded extremely well. Denver has excellent ball movement and Portland is just 18-32 ATS in home games when facing teams averaging 23 or more assists-per-game over the last two seasons. Denver is 12-4 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games this season. Portland is 4-12 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more over two straight games this season. From the predictive side of my machine learning apps, Denver is expected to score at least 115 points in this game. In road games installed as an underdog, the Nuggets have earned a 10-7 SU record and 13-4 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet the Denver Nuggets as a 4-UNIT best bet plus the points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too. |
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05-26-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -8 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
WASHINGTON (35 - 40) at PHILADELPHIA (50 - 23) Wednesday, 5/26/2021 7:00 PM Game-2 of the First Round 10-UNIT Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points. The 76ers are a solid 22-13-1 ATS in home games and facing a team that is averaging 112 or more PPG in games played over the last two seasons. Wizards are 18-35 ATS in road tilts after having lost two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons. 76ers are a highly profitable 16-6 ATS in home games coming off an ATS loss and with a total of 220 or more points over the last two seasons. A lot of negative news out about how poorly he played on the offensive end down the stretch. He did have 15 rebounds and 15 assists BUT did go 0-for-6 from the charity stripe. However, the 76ers are 55-38-2 for 59% following a game in which Ben Simmons made no more than one free throw. The 76ers are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets coming off a game in which Ben Simmons scored fewer than 10 points and 16-8 ATS in home games coming off a game in which Ben Simmons scored less than 10 points. 76ers are a remarkable 21-4 ATS for 84% winning bets in home games and coming off a home game in which Ben Simmons had 10 or more assists. Including, 14-1 SU and ATS coming a home game getting at least 10 assists and now his team is at home installed as a favorite of 4.5 to 9.5 points. My models are predicting that the 76ers will score at least 118 points and make at least 33% of their 3-point shot attempts. In past games, when the 76ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned an outstanding 43-4 SU and 33-14 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past three seasons. Take the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points. |
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05-25-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 209.5 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
LA LAKERS (43 - 31) at PHOENIX (52 - 21) Tuesday, 5/25/2021 10:00 PM Western Conference - First Round – Best-Of -7 - Game 2 4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER The Lakers are: 30-12 UNDER when facing 3-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season. 13-4 UNDER when facing elite shooting teams making 48% or more of their shots this season. Bet the UNDER with any team where the total is greater than or equal to 205 points, after going under the total by more than 22 points in their previous game, a good team with a win percentage between 60% to 75% and is playing a team with a winning record. This system has earned a 78-30-8 UNDER for 72% winning bets over the last three seasons. If the total is 225 or lower, the record has been 52-21-6 for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons. If the game is taking place in the playoffs, the record has been 10-5-2 UNDER over the last three seasons. So, here is one of my more advanced betting angles that has produced a 107-48-6 UNDER record good for 69% winning bets. The average points scored in road games by the road team and the average points scored by the home team in their home games is at least 2.5% greater than the current posted total, and the team (Lakers) lost the previous matchup, and the opponent (Suns) has seen the UNDER win 40% or more in their home games on the season. |
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05-23-21 | Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ATLANTA (41 - 31) at NEW YORK (41 - 31) Sunday, 5/23/2021 7:00 PM 5-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER Betting the UNDER in a game with a total between 210 and 219.5 points and a team is coming off back-to-back double-digit home wins and revenging a loss to the current opponent, who scored 112 or more points in that loss has earned a solid 34-11 UNDER record for 76% winning bets. Betting the UNDER in the following situational betting system has earned a highly profitable 25-11-1 record for 70% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet UNDER in the first game of the Round 1 playoffs in which the previous matchup between the two teams went OVER the posted total. If the total has been 210 or more points, the record has been 11-3 UNDER for 80% winning bets. From the predictive metrics, the Knicks are 65-24-1 UNDER for 73% in home games in which their opponent shot 47% or lower from the field and shot 37% or lower from beyond the arc in games played over the last five seasons. |
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05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 213.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
LA LAKERS (43 - 30) at PHOENIX (51 - 21) Sunday, 5/23/2021 3:30 PM 4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total The Lakers are: 25-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. 29-12 UNDER facing 3 point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season. 34-16 UNDER facing teams scoring an average of 112 or more points-per-game (NBA League Average) this season. 14-1 UNDER after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season. Betting the UNDER in the following situational betting system has earned a highly profitable 25-11-1 record for 70% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet UNDER in the first game of the Round 1 playoffs in which the previous matchup between the two teams went OVER the posted total. If the total has been 210 or more points, the record has been 11-3 UNDER for 80% winning bets. |
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05-23-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
Washington Wizards vs Philadelphia 76ers 1:00 PM EST, May 23, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Philadelpphia 76ers This is the first of many Best Bets in NBA, MLB, and the NHL for Sunday. So, please stop back to get the complete card including a top-rated 5-Unit Game of the Month. All bets will be released by Noon ET. Here are a few of the situational angles that support the 76ers. They are 21-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season; 24-11 ATS in home games facing faster-paced teams averaging 88 or more shots-per-game over the last two seasons. Betting on home favorites of 2.5 to 9.5 points that are hosting a team they previously defeated by double-digits and with that opponent coming off a double-digit home win has earned a 140-91-5 ATS record good for 60% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. From my predictive models, the 76ers are expected to score at least 120 points and have the better assists-to-turnover ratio in this game. In past home games, when the 76ers have met or exceeded these performance measures, has produced a 35-12 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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05-22-21 | Celtics v. Nets -8 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points The Celtics lost all three games to the Nets this season and none of the losses had the star trio of Harden, Durant, and Irving on the floor at the same time. They will be playing only the ninth game together and have played just 203 total minutes together in games played this season. The Celtics are without their best player in Jaylen Brown and all signals point to a best double-digit win. Betting on home teams that have posted three consecutive games with a 2.5 or better assist-to-turnover ratio and facing an opponent that has a season-to-date assist-to-turnover ratio below 2.0 has earned an outstanding 18-9-1 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last three seasons. The betting lines ikmply a 119-111 Nets win and the predictive models that I have developed over more than two decades see a high probability that the Nets will score at least 117 points in this game. When scoring 117 or more points in home games, the Nets are 40-10 SU, 34-15-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last three seasons. When allowing 117 or more points in road games, the Celtics are a horrid 3-26 SU, 4-24-1 ATS for 14% in games played over the last three seasons. |
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05-22-21 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Detrtoit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Kauffman Stadium 4:10 PM EDT, May 22, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total The Tigers starting pitcher Mathew Boyd is pitching well and sports a 2.45 ERA on the seasons. The Royals counter with Brady Singer, who is also in decent form with a 3.96 ERA on the season. In fact, the Tigers starters are allowing a solid 1.625 earned rtuns per game. The Under is 7-0 in Boyds last seven starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is Under is 7-1 in Boyds last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Under is 10-2 in Royals last 12 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the UNDER for 4-UNITS on a 3,4, and 5-UNIT scale. |
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05-16-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -3 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
Memphis vs Golden State The clubs enter the game with identical 38-33 records, tied for eighth in the West, meaning the winner will earn the No. 8 seed and a road game Wednesday against the seventh-seeded club (either the Los Angeles Lakers or Portland), while the loser will host 10th-place San Antonio as the No. 9 seed. Warriors are 17-8 ATS wehen facing a team that averages at least 88 shot attempts-per-game this season; 16-7 ATS when facing teams allowing more than the NBA League average of 112 PPG this seasdon. Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after successfully covering the spread in two oir more consecutive games, and with both teams in the matchup having win percentages between 50 and 60% on the season has earned a 57-28 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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05-16-21 | A's v. Twins -111 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
Oakland vs Minnesota Maeda (2-2, 5.08 ERA), the runner-up for the American League Cy Young Award last season, will pitch better than his current 5.08 ERA would suggest. Home plate umpire John Libka is 6-0 and 5-1 UNDER in favor of the Home Team this season. Betting against road teams that are starting a pitcher that did not walk a batter in his last start and is a team that is batting just 0.230 or worse over their last 20 games has earned a 103-58 record good for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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05-15-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
NY YANKEES (21 - 17) at BALTIMORE (16 - 22) 5-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER This betting angle has produced an 82-37 record for 69% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet OVER in a game with a total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the road team has a hot starting pitcher in excellent form sporting an ERA of 2.50 or lower spanning his last three starts and is batting just 0.230 or worse over their last 15 games. Yankees are a solid 36-15 OVER in road games facing struggling teams outscored by their opponents by 0.5 or more runs-per-game in games played over the last 3 seasons. Yankees are 22-9 OVER in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons. The Orioles are 18-8 OVER since 2017, coming off four consecutive games scoring four or fewer runs, and averaging at least 1.1 multiple-run-innings-per-game on the season. Take the OVER for a 5-UNIT Best Bet |
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05-15-21 | Canucks +170 v. Oilers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 170 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Vancouver vs Edmonton 4-UNIT Upset Alert on Vancouver using the money line If you like a ton of action, then this NHL betting nagle is for you. The angle has produced a 403-368 winning record averaging a +111 money line wager and making the Dime Bettor over $80K in just the past five seasons. Bet on teams coming off a 3 or more goal loss and now facing an opponent that has scored three or more goals in each of their last two matches. Edmonton is 13-22 against the money line losing 19.3 Units in home games facing teams that allow 2.85 or more goals-per-game in games played in the second half of each of the last 3 seasons. |
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05-15-21 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 233.5 | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Chicago Vs Brooklyn 1:05 PM EST, May 15, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER For the first time in 41 games, the dynamic trio of Harden, Irving, and Durant will play together for the Nets as they seek to avoid slipping to the third playoff slot. The Bucks, currently in the third seed, own the tie-breaker over the Nets. So, the strategy will be quite interesting for the later game between the Miami Heat and the Bucks. No team in the East wants to face the Heat in the first round. It is likely the Nets win this game over the Bulls and then we will see how Milwaukee chooses to play this out. There are two scenarios we could see unfold later on Saturday. First, the Bucks playing to win and putting the pressure back to the Nets to play a full lineup Sunday against Cleveland. Second, the Bucks could elect to rest Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton against the Heat and accept the No-3 seed. Nevertheless, the Nets must win this game first, to force the chess matchup to continue with the Bucks. The OVER is supported by an outstanding NBA betting angle that has produced a 22-5-1 OVER record for 82% winning bets spanning the last three seasons. Bet the OVER with a team coming off back-to-back games in which they achieved an elite 2.75 or higher assist-to-turnover ratio, and the gamne is lined at 234 or more points. Even with a total of at least 230 points, the record is still a strong 36-15-2 for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons. We saw last night, the OVER, in the Warriors vs Pelicans game easily eclipse the total of 220 points. The final score was a 125-122 Warriors win without Steph Curry in the game. The news that he was not playing, sent the total plummeting from an opening price of 230 points to 220 points. Betting against these market moves has been a very successful strategy this season. So, if there is news that the big-3 are not playing does not invalidate the strength of this Total. |
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05-02-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 243.5 | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
Brooklyn vs Milwaukee 3:30 PM EST, May 2, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER Based on this matchup, the final score may see well over 250 total points scored. Betting the OVER with a home team where the total; is greater than 200 points that is outscoring their opponents by an average of at least 6 or more PPG on the season and facing a foe that is coming off a brutal loss of 15 or more points has earned an outstanding 7-32-1 SATS record for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. In the 2020 NBA season , betting the OVER in games with a total of at least 235 points has earned a remarkable 51-25 record for 67% winning bets. If the total was 240 and higher, the OVER has earned a 17-6-1 ATS for 74% winning bets this season. When the Bucks have been at home with a total of 235 or more, the OVER is a perfect 7-0 ATS. In road games and a total of at least 235 points, the OVER is 7-1 in Nets road games. |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers -124 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
LA Dodgers vs Milwaukee 7:10 PM EST, May 1, 2021 10-Unit Play on the Los Angeles Dodgers using the money line Seems only fitting that Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin ‘Big Red’ May is making a start on May Day. He is pitching well and all signs point to this season being his breakout one. So far, in 2021 season, he is 1-1 in four starts, with a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, including 32 strikeouts spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. He is also sporting elite stats with a career-high 13.50 strikeouts-pre-nine-innings, just 2.11 walks-per-9 innings, and a 6.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. May is prototype power pitcher with a 98 MPH lively fastball that he thrwos 60% of the time. He has an outstanding curve ball that is used 23% and a 92 MPH cutter the remaining 17% of his pitches thrown. His fastball has heavy sinking action and produces far more ground ball outs than the average MLB start pitcher. When batters make contact with the sinker, they are averaging a -4 degree launch angle that reflects the high number of grounders. Hi saverager spin rate on the sinker is an outstanding 2366 RPM, but his curve is his best pitch getting the most strikeouts and a very high and tight spin rate of o er 3,100 RPM. Milwaukee’s Woodruff is an excellent starting pitcher, but has not done well facing the Dodgers. He is 0-1 in two career starts with a 6.96 ERA and 1.451 WHIP. Plus, the Brewers are scoring just 3.5 RPH and batting 0.213 in home games, and over the last seven games are scoring 3.0 RPH and batting 0.224. Dodgers are 20-13 for 61% coming off a loss in which they scored no more than one run and are in gamne-2 or more of the current series over the last five seasons. OIn the loss both Seager and Turner were hitless. The Dodgers are 19-5 coming off a game in which Seager and Turner both went hitless in games played over the last three seasons. Bet the Dodgers boxed with Dustin May for a top-rated 5-UNIT Best Bet. |
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04-25-21 | Sabres +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Buffalo vs NY Rangers 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Buffalo Sabres using the Puck Line I am planning on bettig this game with 80% of my normal 4-UNIT best size being placed on Buffalo using the puck line and then 20% amount on the mmoney line. The +1.5 puck line is carrying about -115 vig and the money line is priced with Buffalo at a minimum of +225 money line, currently. If you shop a bit, you will find some +240 lines available. Here is a terrific bettig angle and system that ahs earned a 42-20 SU record that has averaged a 149 underdog wager, making the $100 bettor a $2,325 profit, and a 29% ROI over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs that are coming off a win against a divisional foe and now facing a host that is coming off a blowout win of three or more goals. Buffalo is coming off a 6-4 upset win as a +260 underdog over Boston. The Rangers man-handled the Philadelphia Flyers 4-1 in their home win as -165 favorites. Now, the shocking part of this betting angle is the fact that when these underdogs have beend priced at +200 and greater, they have gone 7-3 SU and averaged a +237 underdog wager for a 131% ROI. |
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04-25-21 | Rangers v. White Sox -220 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Texas Rangers vs Chicago Wite Sox Texas will send Kohei Arihara (2-1, 2.21) to the hill while the CWS will counter with Michael Kopech (1-0.1.69) in the last game of this three-game series. The CWS won the first two games of this series and will look for the sweep this afternoon. The CWS won the first game 9-7 installed as -140 home favorites with the final score doubling the total betting line of 8-runs. The CWS, behind brilliant pitching by Dallas Keuchel, won 2-1 as -163 home favorites, and the final score easily staying UNDER the total line of 8-runs. The money line for this final game of the series opened at -210/+175 and has since moved higher to show the CWS favored at -225/+195 at WestGate and Circa. The -1.5 Run Line open with the CWS favored at -106 and has risen modestly to -115. The betting trend will see the CWS become greater favorites, so make the bet at the best available Run Line price you have access to. Optional In-Game Betting Strategy The CWS fall into a very powerful betting angle that has produced a 40-4 SU record for 91% winning bets, making the $100 bettor a $3,225 profit, and 30% ROI over the last ten seasons. Using the Run Line, the record has been 32-12 for 73% winning bets and a highly profitable 37% ROI.
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04-24-21 | Wolves v. Jazz -11.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Utah 4-Unit Best Bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points. We are on a double-digit favorite tonight in the NBA action which is rare, but always reinforced by a multitude of facts. I will detail just a few of these facts that support Utah to win this game by at least 18 points. Minnesota is just 13-26 ATS when facing a strong opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least three or more points-per-game on the season; 16-27 ATS when facing a team averaging 111 or more PPG (NBA League Average is 111 PPG) this season. Utah is an outstanding 14-3-1 ATS when facing a team with a terrible defensive presence that is allowing opponents to make 48% or more of their shots from the field in games played this season; 21-9 ATS when facing a poor team that has been poutscored by their opponents by at least six PPG on the season. From the complete analytical research, I am expecting the Jazz to score at least 115 points have the better, and more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In past home games in which Utah met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to an outstanding 21-3 ATS record for 88% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet the Utah Jazz as a 4-UNIT Best Bet minus the points. |
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04-24-21 | Yankees v. Indians +105 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Cleveland Indians As the month of April winds down, both of these teams are in a bit of trouble given their losing records right now. Only 7 teams since 2004, that had losing records through April managed to recover and get into the playoffs. So, this does become a critical for both teams. While the offense has made its presence felt, all eyes likely will be on the mound Saturday when the Yankees send ace Gerrit Cole (2-1, 1.82 ERA) against reigning American League Cy Young Award recipient Shane Bieber (2-1, 2.45). The two All-Star right-handers will meet for first time since Sept. 29, with Cole and New York getting the better of that exchange. Cole struck out 13 batters and the Yankees tattooed Bieber for seven runs on nine hits -- including two homers -- in 4 2/3 innings of a 12-3 win in Game 1 of the AL wild-card series. The Yankees are 10-18 in road games and facing a host that is averaging 1.25 or more home runs-per-game in games played over the last two seasons. Bieber is an incredible 15-1 when facing teams that essentially do not even try to steal bases averaging 0.35 or fewer stolen bases-per-game on the season. Cleveland manager Francona is 44-22 after having lost six or seven of their last eight games as the manager of Cleveland. He is also 32-13 in home games after three or more consecutive losses. Bet Cleveland as a 4-UNIT Best Bet |
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04-24-21 | Angels +132 v. Astros | Top | 2-16 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
LA Angels vs Houston Astros 4:10 PM EST, April 24, 2021 5-UNIT Best Bet on the Angels using the money line. In morning betting action for this matchup, we are seeing 55% of the tickets bet on the Houston Astros, but 62% of the money is being bet on the Angels. That trend will continue as the market heads towards the first pitch and is bullish on the Angels. The Astros won the first two games of this four-game series with the Angels and without their all-star Jose Altuve. He has been cleared by MLB’s health and safety protocols and more than likely will make a start for this game. Still, his appearance in the lineup is not going to offset their starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi, who is 0-2 with a horrid 10.57 ERA on the season. Odorizzi took his second loss in as many appearances on Sunday, allowing four runs on three hits and three walks with seven strikeouts over 4 1/3 innings in a 7-2 setback against the Seattle Mariners. That game marked the longest outing, most pitches (89) and most strikeouts for Odorizzi since Sept. 24, 2019. That start against the Detroit Tigers was his last victory. Batters are getting hard-hit balls 54% of plate appearances that average an exit velocity of 90.4 MPH against Odorizzi. He throws fast ball 59%, then adds a splitter for 19%, slider 11%, and occasionally a cutter and curve ball. He throws 92 MPH with this fastball, but his location has been quite poor and when that or any of his pitches are elevated in the strike zone, the ball gets hit hard. For the Angels, Griffin Canning will b eon the hill and he is a vastly better starting pitcher than Odorizzi. Canning has a line drive percentage of 20% and an excellent whiff percentage of 34%. Odorizzi has a line dirve rate of 37% and a decent whiff percentage of 29%. I think you will see Canning pitch more innings than Odorizzi and that the Angels will have at least one multiple-run ining in this game. Since 2016, when the Angels have met or exceeded these performance measures has earned an outstanding 176-34 moey line record good for 84% winning bets and a fantastic 60% ROI, In games where they were road underdogs and met these measures has produced a 46-12 record for 79% winning bets and a 90% ROI. Bet the Angels as a 5-Unit Best Bet |
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04-24-21 | Raptors +1 v. Knicks | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
Toronto vs New York 4-UNIT best Bet on the Toronto Raptors plus the points or the money line. The betting line is at pick-em for the game at Madison Square Garden, so simply bet either the line or the money line with the lowest vig. Shop around and you will get a line that is not paying more than -110 vig. Toronto has suddenly won four consecutive games and are playing at a high level and facing a New York Knicks team that has been white hot, but vulnerable to regression in this matchup. In this matchup, I think you will see Toronto score at least 110 points and make more 3-pointers than the Knicks. In past road games in which Toronto met or exceeded these measures has seen them go on to earn an outstanding 55-8 SU, and 49-13-1 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past seasons. Bet the Toronto Raptors as a 4-Unit best Bet |
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04-24-21 | Devils v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
New Jersey vs Pittsburgh The following betting angle has produced a 33-9 UNDER reord good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. The angle requires us to be the UNDER with a road team that has allowed four or more goals in two consecutive games and is now facing an opponent that scored five or more goals in two consecutive games. New Jersey has played many games and will be playing their eighth game in thepast 14 days today. New Jersey is 95-49 UNDER making the $100 bettor a profit of $3,720 when playing their eighth game in the past 14 days. Pittsburgh is 11-3 UNDER in a home match and coming off of win of two or more goals to a divcisional rival in matches played over the past two seasons. Bet the UNDER in this matchup for a 4-unit Best Bet |
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04-19-21 | Jazz v. Lakers UNDER 215 | Top | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Utah vs the LA Lakers 10:00 PM EST, April 19, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER the posted total Here are a few quick hitter supporting the UNDER. Lakers ar e16-6 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 25-12 UNDER when playing against a team ytjhat is scoring at or above the league average of 111 points-per-game; 12-4 UNDER when facing solid rebounding teams that are averaging at least three more rebounds than their opponents this season. Betting the UNDER with road teams involved in a game lined between 210 and 219.5 points, playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, and revenging a road loss to the current opponent has earned a 62-30-2 record for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. Take the UNDER |
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04-18-21 | Braves v. Cubs -129 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Chicago 5-UNIT MLB Best Bet The 5-Unit Best Bet is the highest graded BET that Ryan bets with his own money, expect for the Double 5-UNIT or 10-UNIT Bet, that is reserved for fewer than 10 times in a calendar year spanning all sports. So, this 5-UNIT is quite strong and does represent a terrifica betting opportunity. Keep in mind, that any of these plays can lose. I have 26 years of experience and wisdom, and the focus needs to be squarely on season-long profits – and not the results of just one day. The Cubs franchise record for consecutive games scoring five or fewer runs is 23 straight set by the anemic 1973 team. The 2021 Cubs had started off with 13 straight games not scoring more than five runs. On Saturday, they tagged the ball in the a big way scoring 13 runs in their win over the Braves. The Cubs are 5-0 when scoring four or more runs in 2021 and just 1-8 when scoring three or fewer runs. Bryce Wilson will be the Braves starter. He is 23 years-old and did nor fair well in his first start against the Braves allowing 6 runs, 4 earned runs (8.31 ERA) and a 1.617 WHIP in just 4 1/3 innings of work. The Cubs will hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks, who has posted a 2.91 ERA and 1.569 WHIp in four career starts against the Braves. From the machine learning applications, Hendricks is projected to throw a quality start today by completing at least 6 innings and allowing 3 or fewer runs, and will complete more innings than Wilson. In past games in which the Cubs matched or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 41-10 81% winning record in home games played over the last three seasons. |
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04-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Vegas vs Anaheim 4-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER Betting the UNDER with a road team, like Vegas, that is coming off three consecutive road wins, has a winning record on the season, and is now playing a host with a losing record has seen the UNDER earn a 48-24-5 record good for 67% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. Anaheim is 16-8 UNDER when facing an offensive team that averages at least 29 shots-on-goal this season. They are also 10-3 UNDER after scoring just one goal in their previous game thi season. |
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04-18-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Knicks | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
New Orleans ve NY Knicks 1:00 PM EST, April 17, 2021 4-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points. Currently, the betting line has the Pelicans installed as a 1-point underdogs and there is positively no value in betting the money line, unless you are getting even-money or as in the case at Pinnacle (+102). So, if unless you are getting +100 or better money, stick with the 1-point spread. Here is a great NBA Betting system that has earned a 92-56-2 ATS record over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that lost the matchup to the current opponent, and is coming off two consecutive upset losses installed as favorites. Filtering only games that are lined within 3.5 points on either side of pick-em returns a 28-16 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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04-18-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -176 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
St. Louis vs Philadelphia 4% Best Bet on the Phillies using the momney line First, the Philadelphia Phillies could be without star outfielder Bryce Harper again Sunday when they face the visiting St. Louis Cardinals in the rubber match of a three-game series. Harper is listed as day-to-day after being held out of Saturday's contest with soreness in his lower back, and manager Joe Girardi said the Phillies are going to be cautious. Harper played through back soreness and struggled at the plate during the final month of last season. However, he was not a huge contributor in the offense so far this season. For now, having him resting and getting healthier is paramount, but it actually will maek the Phillies offense more efficient. Harper is batting .238 with two home runs and six RBIs in 13 games for the Phillies, who have lost six of eight since opening the season with a 5-1 mark. The Phillies ace Aaron Nola will be on the hill for this game, who has pitched well in his first three outings but is still seeking his first victory. The 27-year-old allowed three runs with seven strikeouts over five frames in last Tuesday's 4-0 loss to the New York Mets. The Phillies will have new call-up Mickey Moniak in the lineup Sunday in center field. Moniak is replacing Adam Haseley, who left the team on Wednesday for personal reasons and with Harper out, would make sense for the depth of the roster. The Cardinals are 20-32 after a win by four or more runs in games played over the last three seasons. They are 9-21 after a win of four or more points and having scored 9 or more runs in games played over the last three seasons. |
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04-17-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -114 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
St. Louis vs Philadelphia 4-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line The anemic Phillies offense finally exploded for a 6-run second inning on their way to a dominating 9-2 win over the Cardinals Friday. Jean Segura had three hits while Andrew McCutchen added two hits and three RBIs for the Phillies, who snapped a three-game losing streak. Bryce Harper also drove in two runs. Both teams are 6-6 on the season, but the Phillies will be looing to win their seventh game in eight home games this season. The Phillies will hand the ball to left-hander Matt Moore, who will be making his third start of the season. He signed a one-year, $3 million free-agent deal after pitching last year in Japan. Moore has allowed 13 hits and seven runs in 8 1/3 innings while striking out nine and walking four. He is 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA in three appearances, including two starts, in his career against the Cardinals. St. Louis will turn to left-hander Kwang Hyun Kim for his season debut. He struggled in spring training, compiling a 16.20 ERA in five innings. He has been impacted by back spasms during Spring training and is highly suspect for this game today. The Cardinals are 9-18 in games with a total between 8.5 and 10 runs in games played over the last two seasons. The Phillies bullpen has more effective than expected and have posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in seven home games spanning 26 innings of work. The bullpen record is a perfect 4-0, which measn the Phillies came from behind tpo win those four games. The unit has a 1.15 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in five day games spanning 17.3 innings of work this season. |
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04-17-21 | Braves -110 v. Cubs | Top | 4-13 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs 2:20 PM EST, April 17, 2021 4-unit Best Bet on the Atlanta Braves using the money line. The Braves overcame a 1-0 second-iunning deficit to defeat the Cubs 5-2 at Wrigley Field, Friday. The Braves scored three runs in the fourth inning providing enough run support for reliever Josh Tomlin to earn the win. Tomlin was the fourth reliever of the game in which the Braves used a total of 6 pitchers including starter Kyle Wright. Yesterday’s heavy use of pitching by the Braves places trhem into an excellent situational betting strategy for today’s game. Betting on road favorites, that are coming off a road win that was played in the day-time, has earned a solid 177-98 record for 64.4% winning bets, has made the $100 bettor $3,743 since 2018 for a 10.1% ROI. Plus, if our road favorite had used 6 or more pitchers in that previous game, their record soars to a highly profitable 27-14 SU for 73% winning bets, making the $100 bettor 1,743 in profits since 2018, and a 23.5% ROI. Bet the Atlanta Braves using the money line. Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees 1:05 PM EST, April 17, 2021 4-Unit Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Rays using the money line. The Rays scored two in the top of the first inning and never trailed in their 8-2 drubbing of the Yankees in Friday’s game in the Bronx. Here are a few team angles supporting the Rauys today. The Rays are 10-3 using the ML when facing a team that is allowing 4.4 or more runs-per-game in games played over the last two seasons. The Rays are 10-3 when facing AL teams that covert 75% or more of their savwe opportunities in games played over the last two seasons. The Yankees are 31-32, but have lost 14.5 units-per-unit wagered when facing a team whose bullpen averages at least 3.1 or more innings-per-game in games played over the last two seasons. The Rays are 24-7 in games where the monmey line is between a -125 favorite and a 125 dog in games played over the last two seasons and 15-3 in this sitruation when facing a divisional foe. Take the Rays using the money line. |
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04-15-21 | Flyers +150 v. Penguins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 150 | 2 h 10 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh 7:08 PM EST, April 15, 2021 This betting system has earned a 133-100 record for 56% winners good for 57% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The system has averaged a +145 dog helping to make the $100 bettor a profit of $6,376 over 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team using the money line that has allowed three or more goals in two consecutive matches and is facing an opponent that has scored four or more goal sin each of their last four matches. Take the Philadelphia Flyers using the money line. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Baylor vs Gonzaga 9:00 PM EST, April 5, 2021 4% Best bet UNDER the posted total of 159 points. How in the world is this Championship Game even come close to matching the drama of the UCLA vs Gonzaga semifinal game, which is at the top of the All-Time greatest games in any sport. I do see this game being a physical war between these two juggernaut programs, who were ranked 1 and 2 in the nation throughout the season. Betting on the UNDER in neutral court settings with a total between 150.5 and 160 points in a matchup where the one team, Gonzaga, has scored 75 or more points in at least two consecutive games and now facing an opponent, Baylor, who is coming off a game in which they scored at least 40 or more points in the first-half of their last game has earned a solid 110-57-1 UNDER record for 67% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the ‘other’ team, Baylor, has scored 40 or more in two consecutive first-halves, the record moves up to 70% winning bets. |
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04-04-21 | Cardinals v. Reds +104 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 104 | 1 h 1 m | Show |
St. Louis vs Cincinnati 4% best Bet on the Cincinnati Reds using the money line. It is only two games into the regular season, but this historic rivalry got into the form seen in the hot days of summer. The Reds evened the series with a 9-6 win on Saturday, but not before St. Louis reliever Jake Woodford hit Nick Castellanos with a 92-mph fastball in the fourth inning. After staring at the mound, Castellanos took his base and eventually scored on a wild pitch, staring, and flexing at Woodford after sliding in under his tag. Both dugouts emptied and Castellanos was ejected for the first time in his career, but no punches were thrown, and order was restored after a few minutes of ballroom dancing. The betting flows are throwing up a red flag for backers of the Cardinals. 56% of the tickets and 84% of the money is a certain sign of the betting community betting with irrational exuberance. From the machine learning tools, the Reds are 43-15 for 74% winning bets in home games and having at least two multiple-run-innings in games played over the last three seasons. |
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04-02-21 | Dodgers -242 v. Rockies | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies We lost with the -1.5 Run Line, but the machine learning applications come right back on the Dodgers in this spot tonight. Betting on teams that made the playoffs last season and facing a host that was not in the playoffs last season, and the host sports a win percentage of 65% or higher has earned a 97-47 record using the Run Line and producing a 41% ROI over the last ten seasons. Ironically, Bauer is 0-3 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.347 WHIP, but has not faced them since the 2017 season. The Dodgers lost their opening day road game 8-5 to the Rockies yesterday. Over the past three seasons, the Dodgers are 7-1 SU and on the Run Line coming off a loss in which the opponent scored 8 or more runs, and installed in the current games as a -175 or greater favorite. |
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04-01-21 | Stars v. Predators +108 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Dallas vs Nashville Betting on home underdogs of +200 or less using the money line, are coming off two games that resulted in UNDER bet wins, and with the two teams averaging 2.5 to 2.99 goals-per-game spanning the last five seasons. Dallas is just 3-15 facing excellent power-play scoring teams that score of 19% or more of their man-advantage situations this season. |
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04-01-21 | 76ers -9.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Cleveland 4% Best Bet on the 76ers -10 points The 76ers are tied on top of the Eastern Conference standings with the Brooklyn Nets. They have lost 3 consecutive games on two occasions this season and will avert a third such occurrence tonight. They are ending their 6-game road trip and will look to return home with the possibility of Joel Embiid being able to return to the lineup. Cleveland is 7-19 ATS when facing a winning record team this season. The 76ers are an excellent rebounding team. Cleveland is just 11-30 ATS when facing a team that is outrebounding their opponents by an average 3 or more per game. 76ers head coach Doc Rivers is 53-27 ATS for 67% winning bets in his career following a game in which his team had been outrebounded by 15 or more boards. From the machine learning applications, we learn that the 76ers are 66-9 SU and 57-17-1 ATS for 77% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points (league scoring average the last three seasons) and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio than their opponent spanning the last three seasons. |
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04-01-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -139 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
LA Dodgers at the Colorado Rockies This is a very logical bet to be making on opening day. Over the last 15 seasons had you bet on the defending World Series Champion using the run line when favored between -175 and -200., you would have profited and produced a solid 15% ROI. The Dodgers are a juggernaut and added starting pitcher Trevor Bauer at $40 million. They were first in MLB with a 136-run differential in last season’s 60-game sprint and was more than half of their 273 run differential in 2019. At DraftKings they are lined with a 102.5 wins total and if you are interested in backing the Dodgers, you can get it cheaper at BetMGM, who are offering it at 101.5 wins. I cannot imagine this team with the depth and talent in the starting lineup losing more than 60 games and are more likely to win 110 or more games in the 2021 season. The Dodgers are 43-13 in day games over the last three seasons and starting pitcher Kershaw is 79-27 in day games for his career. |
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04-01-21 | Braves v. Phillies -117 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies 4% Best bet on the Philadelphia Phillies Bryce Harper was the only certainty in manager’s Girardi’s opening day lineup when the Grapefruit League started play this season. Catcher J.T. Realmuto and first baseman Rhys Hoskins have hit out of the second hole for the Phillies in Grapefruit League games. Hoskins is the logical choice to bat second with Realmuto batting cleanup primarily because of his discipline at the plate. Despite batting just 0.245 compared to Realmuto’s .266 during the 60-game 2020 sprint season, Hoskins, who led the National League with 119 walks in ’19 season, had a higher on-base percentage last year (.384 to .349) because his walk rate was nearly twice that of Realmuto’s (15.7 to 8.2%). So, with Andrew McCutchen fully recovered from his 2019 ALC injury and looking great in Grapefruit League games, in the lead-off spot, Harper will have far more betters on base when he comes up to the plate and not just in the first inning. CF Adam Haseley has made the roster and will be batting 8th, but has the talent to help turn the lineup over, which again will increase the chances for Harper to drive in runs with men on base. This is a season-long theme, of course, but one that I do think you will see unfold today. The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the hill for Opening Day. He went 5-5 with a 3.28 ERA and solid 4.17 SO-BB ratio. He had 96 strikeouts in his 10 starts for a 9.6 SO-per-star average, which is quite good. In fact, he led the team with a 12.2 SO-per-nine innings ratio and ranked high in all of MLB. Look for the Phillies to win their home opener. |
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03-30-21 | 76ers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Denver This is a MONEY LINE Betting System that has posted a losing record of 103-182 for 36% winning money line bets, but has made the $100 bettor a profit of $7,777 over the last 5 seasons. Bet on road underdogs using the money line that is facing a host, who is outscoring their opponents by a minimum of 3 PPG, and are coming off three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored. If the DOG covered the spread, they the game straight-up 54% of the time. Let me know if you have any questions and TY for putting it together. So, I recommend betting this game using 80% of your normal 4% bet size on the spread and then the 20% remaining bet on the money line. 76ers are 18-5-1 ATS when facing a solid shooting team making at least 46.5% of their shots in game splayed this season. They are also 19-10-2 ATS when facing teams that are averaging 110 or more PPG this season. Since February 21, the 76ers are 11-1 in this role. |
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03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
USC vs Gonzaga I am betting Houston at +500 to win the Championship. I also betting USC at +1400 to win the Championship as an alternative sprinkle of USC using the money line in this game. Far more bang for the buck doing it this way. Following game number 15 of the regular season, betting on Neutral court UNDERDOGS that are good defensive teams allowing 63-67 PPG and now facing an elite offensive team scoring at least 77 PPG and coming off a win by 15 or more points has earned a 24-5 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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03-29-21 | Cavs +16 v. Jazz | Top | 75-114 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Cleveland vs Utah 9:00 PM EST, March 29, 2021 4% best bet on the Cleveland Cavs +15.5 points Betting on double-digit underdogs, after game number 41, in a matchup of the tale of two teams, with the favorite having outscored their opponents by 7 or more PPG, and the underdog being outscored by 7 or more PPG, has earned a highly profitable 63-45-2 ATS for 58.3% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 21-9 ATS for 75% last five seasons. |
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03-28-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-126 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Denver 9:00 PM EST, March 28, 2021 4% Best Bet on the Atlanta Hawks +4.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I plan to bet this game on the Hawks with 85% of my 4% bet size on the line and then 15% of my 4% bet size on the money line. These two teams last played in Atlanta, who defeated Denver 123-115 as 2.5-point home underdogs. Denver is 2-10 ATS revenging a road loss this season. They are also just 3-12 ATS in home games after scoring 100 or more points in back-to-back games spanning the past two seasons. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Atlanta is 47-15 and 46-14- 2 ATS for 77% winning bets, in road games, scoring 111 or more points, and had previously defeated the opponent at home. |
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03-28-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Florida State vs Michigan 4% Best Bet on Florida State +2 points or the money line +115 or higher. I will be playing this bet using the money line and it will be graded on the site as a money line play. The line has drifted to the 2-point price level and if you believe FSU is going to win, then the money line offers better value at +115. If the money line is at +110, for instance, then consider a combination wager of FSU +1.5/+2 points for 50% of your normal 4% bet amount and then another 50% betting the money line at +110. In the NCAA Tournament action dating back to the 2009 season (2010 March Madness), betting on underdogs of four or fewer points, that have averaged 72 or fewer possessions-per-game, have earned a 138-88-1 ATS record for 61% winning bets. This system has earned the $100 bettor a profit of $4,332 or a highly profitable 18% return-on-investment (ROI). So far in the NCAA Tournament, this system has done well with a 9-5 ATS for 64% winning bets and a nice 24.2 % ROI. FSU is 21-5-1 ATS when dressed as an underdog of six or fewer points dating back to the 2005 season. FSU head coach Hamilton relishes this underdog role sporting a 12-3 ATS record playing on neutral courts as an underdog of three or fewer points and 19-4 ATS as an underdog of six or fewer points. |
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03-28-21 | Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 158.5 | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
Creighton vs Gonzaga 4% Best Bet OVER the posted total of 158 points. We all have seen many more UNDER results this NCAA Tournament, and with the UNDER a perfect 4-0 UNDER yesterday. These UNDERS combined for going under their respective totals by 78 points in total and is easily above the highest UNDER total for a sweet 16 round since 2010, which occurred in the 2014 tournament and a total of 38 points. For this matchup, the OVER is the play based on my research and machine learning applications. The line and total imply a Gonzaga 86-73 win today over Creighton. The ML apps underscore Gonzaga’s points total of 86 or more points. Gonzaga has an 82% probability of scoring 86 or more points. In past games, Creighton is 7-0 OVER when they have allowed 87 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Gonzaga is 30-3 OVER when both they and their opponent have scored 75 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Gonzaga is 75-2 and 55-15 OVER in games scoring 81 or more points spanning the last five seasons and teams in the NCAA Tournament that have scored 87 or more points, are 52-4 and 50-6 OVER spanning the last six NCAA Tournaments. |
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03-27-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Houston | Top | 46-62 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Syracuse vs Houston Sweet 16 Round Hinkle Fieldhouse 9:55 PM EST, March 27, 2021 4% Best Bet on Syracuse +6.5 points I like a red-hot Syracuse team that once again is proving the nay-sayers wrong. Jim Boeheim is one of the best coaches All-Time and has the Syracuse 2-3 zone defense holding their first two opponents to less than 36% shooting. Even though, Houston has had many days to prepare for this defense, facing it in a LIVE game is far more different than studying game films. Houston is certainly an elite team, but in order to attack a 2-3 zone, an offense needs a strong post presence. Houston does not have that strong scoring threat in the post, and I see Syracuse doing a great job contesting every 3-point shot attempt. Boeheim is 10-1 ATS when his teams have been seeded 9 through 12 in the NCAA Tournament. Houston is 1-9 ATS in games away from home following a low-scoring game in which 125 or fewer points were scored spanning the last three seasons. |
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03-26-21 | Blazers -9 v. Magic | Top | 112-105 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
Portland vs Orlando Let’s start with a highly profitable betting system that supports making a bet on Portland. The system has earned a 78-20 SU record and 65-31-2 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites of 3.5 or more points that are coming off back-to-back games in which they allowed 100 or more points and are now facing a host that is coming off a win of three or fewer points. Plus, if the host has lost 65% or more of their games, then the record improves to 25-10-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. The last time Orlando played Portland ended with a 106-97 road and ATS loss on February 9. Orlando is just 10-31 ATS revenging a road loss in games played over the last two seasons. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Portland is a highly profitable 33-9 SU and 31-9-2 ATS for 78% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points and having the better assists-to-turnover ratio in road games played over the last five seasons. |
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03-24-21 | Mavs -8 v. Wolves | Top | 128-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
Dallas vs Minnesota Dallas is beginning to look like the playoff-bound team I thought they would be before the season started. Doncic is averaging career-highs scoring 29 PPG and adding 9.2 assists-per-game. However, it has been their improved defense recently that has driven to their 22-19 record. Minnesota is 35-64 ATS when facing an opponent that is averaging at least 18 or more 3-point shot attempts-per-game over the last two seasons and the same record facing opponents that make at least six 3-point shots-per-game. Betting on road favorites that are coming off a monster win of 20 or more points and facing an opponent that has scored and allowed 100 or more points in each of their last three games has earned a 46-19-2 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons, is 7-3 in the 2020 season, and has gone 4-1 ATS in March. |
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03-23-21 | 76ers -4 v. Warriors | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Golden State Although Stephen Curry and his brother, Seth, have each missed the passed two games and are considered questionable to play Wednesday, they are on the schedule to go head-to-head Tuesday night for the 14th time in their NBA careers when the Golden State Warriors host the Philadelphia 76ers. Meanwhile, big men James Wiseman and Joel Embiid will have to wait on their first duel. However, the 76ers have played very well without Embiid in the lineup and is projected to return to action next week. The 76ers are coming off a 1-point POT road win against the New York Knicks. They are installed as favorites in this matchup. Betting on favorites coming off a road overtime win and now are installed as road favorite have earned a solid 31-15-1 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. If the road favorite, which is the 765ers, has won 60% or more of their games, the record soars to 18-7 for 72% winning bets. |
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03-23-21 | Avalanche v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Colorado vs Arizona Some quick hitters as Arizona is 24-16 ATS (+42.5 Units) when playing against a good team that has won between 60% to 75% of their games in the current season spanning the last three seasons. They are also 17-9 ATS when play a game in the first half of the regular season against a foe that has won between 60 to 75% of their games in the current season over the last three seasons. Arizona is 19-7 off a home loss spanning the last two seasons. |
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03-22-21 | Oklahoma v. Gonzaga -14 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
Oklahoma vs Gonzaga 4% Best bet on Gonzaga –14 points Betting on neutral court favorites in a matchup involving the favorite being an elite offense averaging 77 or more PPG and are coming off two consecutive games scoring 85 or more points, and facing an average D-1 defense that is allowing between 67 and 75 PPG has earned a highly profitable 74-32 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. Gonzaga is 27-0, 13-12 ATS, and is averaging 92.3 PPG, 45.7 PPG in the first half, and making 55% of their shot attempts. Despite playing at the 7th-fastest pace of play in the nation, their defense holds up extremely well and allows just 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 41.4% shooting. Oklahoma is 16-10 SU, 13-12 ATS, and average 74.7 PPG, 34.2 PPG in the first half, and shooting a below average 44% from the field. Their defense has allowed 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 42% opponent shooting. However, over their last five games, they have regressed and average 70.6 PPG, 29.4 PPF in the first half, and make 43% of their shots. On the defensive side, they have allowed 71.6 PPG, 33.6 first half PPG, and allowed 45% shooting over their last five games. So, Gonzaga is playing well, and may not have even peeked yet, and now facing an Oklahoma team that is struggling a bit at both ends of the court. Gonzaga has shot 50% or better from the field in all but TWO of their 27 games and both of those games they shot 49.2% from the field. They have outscored their opponents by 23.7 PPG, and have the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.543. They also have the 21st-best defense assist-to-turnover ratio at 0.755. Oklahoma ranks 128th with a 0.929 opponent assist-to-turnover. So, how in the world is Oklahoma going to slow Gonzaga’s constant offensive attack? I do not think they will or can even on their best day. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Gonzaga is expected to score at least 87 points. When Gonzaga has scored 80 or more points, they are 45-26-1 ATS, and when scoring 87 or more points, they are 41-15-1 ATS for 73% winning bets. |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State v. Oklahoma State -6 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Oregon State vs Oklahoma State Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS since the 15-game of this season facing teams that were averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game. Oregon State is a money-burning 7-22 ATS coming off a four or more-game win streak spanning the last ten seasons. Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season. Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS on neutral courts and having won five or more of their last six games. From the machine learning applications, we are expecting Oklahoma State to shoot between 48 and 53% from the field and to attempt 57 to 64 shots. They are 9-1 ATS when they have met these performance measures. |
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03-21-21 | Oral Roberts v. Florida -9 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Oral Roberts vs Florida Oral Roberts pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Tournament history in their win over Ohio State. The following betting system reveals how difficult it will be for them to pull off another giant-killing upset win. This system has earned a 44-15-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet on neutral court favorites that are from a Major D-1 Conference and facing a team that is from a Mid-Major Conference and that is also playing their second neutral court game in the past three days. A second betting system has earned a 51-19 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a team that is on a four or more-game win streak and are seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament. Florida head coach White is 7-0 ATS when facing an opponent that has been getting outrebounded by four or more rebounds-per-game. He is also 13-3-1 SATS away from Gainesville when having failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games. |
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03-21-21 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 63-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Wisconsin vs Baylor 4% best bet on Wisconsin +6.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I will be betting this game with 85% of my 4% bet size using the spread and the remaining 15% on the money line. I had thought that UNC would advance to this game against Baylor, but Wisconsin and their strong 3-point shooting present far more problems for Baylor. Wisconsin’s Davison had 29 points in the 85-62 route of UNC. They had only seven turnovers and strong ball-handling is a definite requirement in order to take down Baylor. Given that the fourth seed Purdue and two seed Ohio State both lost, the winner of this game will have the easiest remaining schedule to win the region and advance to the Final-Four. Betting on neutral court underdogs that are coming off a win of 15 or more-points, have a solid defense allowing 67 or fewer PPG, and are now facing an excellent offensive team averaging 75 or more PPG has earned a 25-5 ATS record over the last five seasons. In the NCAA Tournament teams that are allowing 67 or fewer PPG and facing an opponent that is averaging 75 or more PPG have earned a 176-124 ATS record for 59% winning bets. |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
Loyola-Illinois vs Illinois 4% Best bet on Illinois –7 points Betting on neutral court favorites that are coming off a 20-point or more blowout win and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a 37-14 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Illinois has tremendous balance and bench strength that will wear down the Loyola team over the course of the game, especially the second half of this matchup. Illinois overwhelmed Drexel with a two-man punch of All-Big Ten center Kofi Cockburn and All-American Ayo Dosunmu. Cockburn had 18 points, including a run of eight in a row, and Dosunmu awakened from a slow start to chip in 17 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and three steals in the first-round victory. Illinois has been near-perfect on the offensive end during their recent surge and are making the correct ball screen reads and as a result all five players are getting high-percentage looks. They share the ball, and you can see the fun and energy they bring to the court. Four of the five Illini starters scored in double-digits in the win over Drexel. Illinois took only seven 3-point shots among the total of 63 shot attempts against Drexel. You can bet they will look to pound the paint and take as many mid-range jumpers as possible. They will also look to speed up the game right from the opening tip and take Loyola out of their plodding pace that ranks 346th nationally. Illinois has the fifth most difficult schedule and are currently 7th in positive team momentum. Loyola had the 140th toughest schedule and rank 284th in momentum. In fact, Loyola’s momentum has regressed modestly. Illinois has a major advantage of the offensive glass and will have a big edge in second-chance scores. They rank 5th nationally in second-chance scoring and I just do not see how Loyola will be able to withstand the Illini’s offensive efficiency. Illinois head coach Underwood is a highly profitable 35-15 ATS when facing solid ball-handling teams that are averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game. |
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03-20-21 | Abilene Christian v. Texas -8.5 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Abilene Christian vs Texas 5% or 10-Star Best Bet on Texas – 8.5 points Coming off a terrible day on Friday going 0-3 ATS with 8-UNIT Best Bets, but at least winning Loyola as a 6-UNIT winning bet. UCLA won Thursday as a 8-UNIT Best Bet bring the 2-day record to 1-3 with 8-UNIT and 1-0 with 6-UNIT Best Bets. I mention this only to remind all of us, including myself, that this is a grinding marathon for 365-days. I am expecting to post my sixth consecutive profitable NCAA Tournament, but do NOT increase your bet size. Stay disciplined and maintain the long-term view to profitability that has served me quite well for 26 years. Betting on favorites in a matchup of similar offenses that are averaging 74 to 79 PPG, after the 15th game of the regular season including all Tournament action, and with the dog coming off three straight double-digit wins has earned a 40-23-2 ATS record for 63.5% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, the record improves to 26-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets and has won nine straight ATS. Texas has big-time advantages across the board and at both ends of the court. Abilene Christian ranks 319th in strength of schedule and this is a sizable jump in competition taking on a Texas squad that has been far more consistent, and plays better away from Austin. Make no mistake about it, Texas will look to pressure every ball-handler looking to force turnovers and get quick fast-break scores. Texas ranks 56th in the nation in points off of steals and 40th in defensive field goal attempt rate. |
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03-20-21 | Grand Canyon v. Iowa -14 | Top | 74-86 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
Grand Canyon vs Iowa NCAA First Round, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN 6:25 PM EST, March 20, 2021 4% Best Bet on Iowa – 14.5 points. Iowa is 27-11-1 ATS facing defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game over the last two seasons. Iowa is 13-3 ATS installed as a double-digit favorite spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 17-5 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149.5 points spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons. Iowa is 9-1 ATS coming off a game allowing 45 or more points in the first half of their last game over the last three seasons. Iowa is 8-1 ATS adfter a double-digit loss over the last two seasons. Iowa Head coach McCaffery is 44-27 ATS as a double-digit favorite From the machine learning applications, we learn that Iowa is 20-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets when they have scored 81 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. The team is led by super-stud Luc Garza and is on eof the five starters that returned from last season. They have incredible chemistry and team leadership and this season was dedicated to winning the NCAA Championship. They rank best ball-handling team in the nation with an incredible 2.07 assists-to-turnover ratio. |
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03-20-21 | Iona v. Alabama OVER 146.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
Iona vs Alabama This total opened at 143 points and has seen smart money hitting the OVER lifting the market price to a current 147-points. My machine learning applications continue to ‘love’ the OVER with a high probability of both teasm socring 75 or more points and a final tally of about 160 points. One way to play this this total is to place 50% of your normal 4% betting amount pre-flop and then look to add 25% more at 143 and the last 25% at 138.5 points. If both teams start out fast, you may not get the chance to add the two parts. However, as we have seen in the first day’s action, the in-game pricing is extremely fast and volatile. So, let that volatility work for you in this game. Alabama is 41-26 OVER when installed as a favorite in games played over the last three seasons and 23-11-1 ATS in non-conference games played over the last three seasons. Alabama head coach Oats is 28-14-1 ATS when playing just the second game spanning the past week; 32-14 ATS when playing against an opponent that has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and only in games played after the 15th game of the regular season. |
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03-20-21 | Eastern Washington +10.5 v. Kansas | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
Eastern Washington vs Kansas 1:15 PM EST, March 20, 2021 The 70-point level is goping to the key for this game and if EWU is going to pull-off an Oral Roberts-like upset over the 3-seed Kansas Jayhawks. The machine learning applications predict a high probability that EWU is going to score more than 70 points. EWU is 13-3 ATS when scoring 70 or more points this season. They are a losing record when not scoring more than 70 points. Kansas was 18-0 SU when holding an opponent to fewer than 70 points and just 2-8 when allowing 70 or more points this season. EWU center Tanner Groves has the opportunity for a huge game. They rank 12th nationally in points scored by the center at 28% of total points. Kansas forward David McCormack has been upgraded to probable for this game due to the COVID Quarantine protocol. Still, he is going to have his hands full trying to contain Groves and no one has any clue how much fatigue will impact McCormack. The biggest problem for the KU defense will be leaving the perimeter open when Groves gets the ball in the box. EWU guards accounted for a modest portion of the scoring, BUT the team has shot 35% from beyomd the arc. Big Sky Conference preseason Player-of-the-Year Jacob Davison, who doesn’t even start, hit 37% from behind the arc and went 9-18 in his last game. EWU knows how to spread the floor and the defense and take the best shot the defense provides them. From the machine learning applications, we learn that EWU is 11-2 ATS when making at least 33% of their 3-point shots in games played over the last two seasons. They are projected to make at least 80% of their free throw attempts and when doing so are 20-7 ATS in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-19-21 | North Texas v. Purdue -7 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
North Texas vs Purdue 4% Best Bet on Purdue -7 points Let us start with a solid and consistent monmey-making betting system that has earned a 62-23 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The system requires a bet be made on favorites that are facing an opponent on a four or more-game win streak and is a 13 through 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is a solid rebounding team that has averaged 37.6 rebounds-per-game and have outrebounded opponents by 6.2 per-game on the season. Note that North Texas is a money-losing 21-44 ATS away from home and facing an opponent that is outrebounding their opponent by an average of 5 or more rebounds-per-game. Purdue’s head coach is 13-3 ATS in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. He is also 18-6 ATS when facing an opponent that averages a below average 15 free-throws-per-game. We learning from the machine learning applications, that Purdue is 13-3 ATS when having four or more offensive boards-per-game than their opponents over the last two seasons. The apps are predicting that North Texas will have fewer than 62 points. North Texas is just 35-60 ATS when scoring 62 or fewer points. |
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03-19-21 | Oregon State v. Tennessee -8.5 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
Oregon State vs Tennessee I certainly do not see any traditional upset here with a 12 vs 5 matchup in the first round. To start, OSU head coach Barnes is a terrible 7-22 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage between 51 and 60% and 8-24 ATS away from home and facing an excellent ball handling team that is committing 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game after the 15th game of the regular season including conference and NCAA, NIT Tournaments. Based on my opponent-adjusted rankings, UT is the 15th-best and OSU is the 75th-best team in the nation. UT has had a much-better resum based on overall record quality and are a superior team on both ends of the court. UT ranks 25 with a 45.9% opponent effective FG percentage. OSU is just not a good shooting team and is a main reason they play a slower style of game. They do not have the personnel to get involved into a track meet with UT. OSU ranks 230th with a 48.7% offensive effective FG percentage. From the machine learning applications we know that UT is 151-50-6 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 75 or more points in all games played over the last 15 seasons. |
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03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 53-65 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
Utah State vs Texas Tech Utah State is the 11-seed going up against a strong Texas Tech 6-seed in this first-round matchup taking place at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana. Utah State has the make-up to win this game and send Texas Tech home. Both teams playing slower than the average D-1 pace of play. UST averages 69.2 possessions-per-40-minutes and TTU averages an even slower pace averaging 66.9 possessions. UST is playing their best games entering the tournament while TTU has been on a minor regression. UST will look to score from the paint and at the rim as often as possible. They are an excellent passing team and will always make the extra pass to get the highest percentage shot. Their excellent ball movement is going to be tough for TTU defense to contain despite ranking in the top-20 of most defensive efficiency measures. UST is also quite good at scoring on second-chance opportunities. So, the more offensive boards they get and the greater the margin of offensive boards compared to TTU, the better their chances of winning this game. TTU is just 2-11 ATS when facing teams called for fewer than 17 fouls-per-game this season and 10-20 ATS when facing strong defenses that are allowing 42% or lower shooting over the last two seasons. UST is 9-2 ATS following two consecutive games allowing 30 or fewer points in the first half. TTU head Coach Beard is 14-26 ATS off a loss to a conference foe and 4-15 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference foe. Bet 4% on the Utah State Aggies and sprinkle the money line with a bit extra and not greater than a 1% amount. |
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03-18-21 | UCLA +2 v. Michigan State | Top | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
UCLA vs Michigan State 4% Best bet on UCLA + 2 points. The sentiment expectaions are highly overvalued and the betting public is betting MSU with irraytional exhuberance. So, this is a contrarian bet, going against the 77% or more of the bets seeing action on MSU. Currently, 77% of the bets made are on MSU, but just 52% of the money. On my live shows this week, which can found at Predictive Playbook on YouTube, I had suggested that MSU should have been seeded and that Syracuse was the team that should have been slotted into this play-in matchup with UCLA. Upon further review, and having run my machine learning applications, there is no doubt in my mind that the selection committee got it right. Noyte, too that I am stating that UCLA is guaranteed of getting the win. I am saying, that UCLA is the smart bet in this matchup and making smart bets over the course of the Tournament is a solid path toward potential profitability. MSU is 5-19 ATS in orad/neutral court setting when playing ateam with a winning record over the last two seasons; 4-14 ATS in road/netral court settings and facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least four or more points-per-game; 0-7 ATS this season away from home and following five consecutive games where their opponent committed 14 or fewer turnovers. From the machine learning applications, we are enlightened that MSU is 2-11 ATS in games in which they attempted 55 to 65 shots this season; 18-61 ATS in games played and allowing 75 to 81 points over the last 15 seasons. |
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03-17-21 | Hornets v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 104-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Denver Nuggets vs Charlotte Hornets An outstanding betting system is on Denver tonight and has earned an 96-43-2 ATS record good for 69.1% winning bets over the last seven seasons. The requirements are to bet on home favorites of 9.5 or fewer points that are coming off an ATS win and in matchup of teams that have won between 51 and 60% of their games on the season. Plus, a subset that filters if the favorite lost to the spread the last time they played the current opponent has earned a 48-14 ATS record for 77% winning bets. Charlotte is just 10-21 ASTS in games with a total between 220 and 229.5 points in games played over the last two seasons. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Denver is 18-4 ATS in home games when they have shot 50% from the field and 40% or better from beyond the arc in games played over the last three seasons. |