Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-07-17 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +27 | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Texas A&M (410) Start Time: Week 6 Saturday, 10/7/2017 7:15 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Wager a 7* amount on Texas A&M using the line. Optional strategy to is to add a 2* amount on Texas A&M using the money line.
Round Table Discussion Points How do you get in front of the Tide as they have been rolling in 2017? Alabama brings a stout defense and an opportunistic offense into this one and is the number one team in the land. The tide has also won 4 in a row in this series both straight up and against the spread. However, this will be the largest number in those 4 years and at this number would not have had one ATS win. Last year’s game was a dogfight until the Aggies wore down and the Alabama defense took over. This Aggies get this one in College Station which should help Freshman QB Kellen Mond, along with a bruising running game to help move the chains and provide some rest for the defense. Texas A&M defense is not Alabama, but has some big playmakers and is plus 8 in Turnovers on the year. We feel the line is too large and asking too much of Jalen Hurt and the Tide offense to cover on the road. Look for a competitive game again this year and for Texas A&M to easily cover this inflated number.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 27-6 ATS hitting 82% winners and has made $2,040 per $100 wagered since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points. After 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. And is winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season. Saban is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) facing mistake free teams that have 42 or less penalty yards per game as the coach of Alabama. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Texas A&M.
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10-07-17 | LSU +2 v. Florida | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: LSU Start Time: Week 6 Saturday, 10/7/2017 3:30 PM SIM grading: 7* SIm Titan Recommended Strategy: Play a 7* amount on LSU. If you wager $100 per ‘star’ unit, then this is a $700 wager. An alternate strategy is to wager a 5* amount on the line and a 2* amount using the money line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 48-19 ATS hitting 72% winners and has made $2,710 per $100 wager since 1992. Play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3. After going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game. In the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is a solid 103-54 ATS (+43.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points. LSU is 20-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. LSU is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the LSU Tigers.
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10-07-17 | West Virginia v. TCU -13 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: TCU (388) Start Time: Week 6 Saturday, 10/7/2017 3:30 PM SIM grading: 10* Titan Recommended Strategy: Wager a 10* amount on TCU minus the points. So, if you wager $100 per ‘star’ unit playm this would be a $700 wager.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points TCU is a solid 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. TCU is 110-44 ATS (+61.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points. WVU is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games facing excellent kickoff coverage teams, allowing 19 or fewer yards per return. WVU is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) vs. good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. TCU is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games after a bye week. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board TCU.
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10-07-17 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -22.5 | Top | 23-44 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 10 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: 406 Auburn Start Time: 10-7-2017 12;00 PM SIM grading: 7* wager Recommended Strategy:
Round Table Discussion Points Ole Miss travels back to the state of Alabama after getting taken out to the woodshed by Alabama and we look for a similar result here. The Rebel offense will face another top tier defense this week and the Auburn offense led by Jarred Stidham is starting to roll. Stidham is completing 72%of his passes and has a strong running game to keep the offense balanced. Auburn has put away its last 2 opponents early and we look for more of the same today. Take Auburn and lay the points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 40-14 ATS hitting 74% winners and has made 24.6units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points. After 2 straight wins by 21 or more points. Against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
Defense Data Query Play any team allowing 14 or less points the last 2 games. Facing a team allowing 37 or more points the last game 65% winners last 10 years
Here is another data query that has gone 15-7 ATS and 21-1 SU in the SEC since 1984. Play against team allowing 37 points last game. Facing a team winning 2 straight games by 28 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Auburn is 8-1 when scoring 28 or more points the last 2 years Malzahn is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of Auburn. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Auburn Tigers. |
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10-07-17 | Penn State -14 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Penn State (331) SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Wager a 7* amount on Penn State on the line. For example, a $100 per ‘star’ player would make a $700 play on Penn State.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following data query has gone 60-24 ATS hitting 71.4% winners and has made $3,360 per $100 wager since 2008. Play on road favorites in a conference matchup. That are Excellent rushing team gaining at least 4.8 YPR. And is now facing a poor rushing team gaining 3 to 3.5 YPR. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is 40-17 ATS (+21.3 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt. PSU is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. PSU is 35-9 ATS (+25.1 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points. PSU is 59-13 ATS (+44.7 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play. PSU is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. NWU is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 2 to 2.5 yards/play. NWU is just 9-41 ATS (-36.1 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Penn State.
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10-06-17 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 110 | 2 h 40 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play ‘OVER’ in Game 2 of the Best-of-Five AL Divisional Series between Boston and Houston set to start at 2:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 10 runs will be scored in this game. We also have a 7* play on Boston, so this opens up a huge opportunity. The recommended wager is to place a 7* play using the money line on Boston. Then add a 7* play using the ‘over’ and then, Add no more than a 3.5* amount for a parlay using the money line and the ‘over’.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following query has gone 11-12 hitting 48% % winners and has made 8.87 units/unit wagered during the 2017 season. Play against a team that has won at least 7 or 8 of their last 8 games. Is now facing a team that has lost 6,7, or 8 of their last 8 games. Is play at home. With a line of -115 or higher.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pomeranz is a perfect 8-0 making 10.1 units when facing teams outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game over the last 3 seasons. Pomeranz is also 15-3 making 15.2 units when facing teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. Pomeranz is 23-10 making 13.8 units when facing a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘Over’, the Red Sox, and the parlay.
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10-05-17 | Patriots -4.5 v. Bucs | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on New England (303) as they take on Tampa Bay in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by at least 8 points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 24-5 ATS hitting 83% winners and has made 18,5 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on road favorites. Excellent passing team averaging 255 or more passing yards/game. After allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. Patriots are 40-17 ATS (+21.3 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. Patriots are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Belichick is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots. |
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10-03-17 | Twins +225 v. Yankees | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Minnesota Twins (931) as they take on the NY Yankees in the American League Wild Card Game set to start at 8:05 PM ET. Simply make a 7* wager on the Twins using the money line.
An alternate wager is to play a 4* amount using the Run Line and a 3* play using the money line.
We also like the ‘UNDER’ n this game, so an extra and optional wager is to play the Twins using the ML and the ‘under’ for no more than a 2* amount of risk. This parlay with a ML of +200 and the total paying juice of -110 yields about a 5:1 payout. Sok if you are wagering $100 per ‘star’ unit, then this parlay is paying $500 for a risk of $100.
Based on the betting flows, the public is beginning to push the line higher with their thinking that there is just no way the Yankees can lose this game at home. So, we would not be surprised to see this line escalate to the -250 and -260 levels. This level, then changes the parlay payout to a very attractive 5.8:1 ratio or risking $100 to make $580. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Minnesota is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 51-39 hitting 57% winners and has made 48.4 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more. After allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival. Starting a pitcher who walked less than 2 hitters each of his last 2 outings. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Twins tonight.
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs (280) as they take on Washington in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that KC will win this game by more than 9 points. For those that love playing money lines, the line is looking a bit cheap currently at -280. So, that too is an attractive, yet far more riskier wager based on ROI analysis.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following data query has gone 19-7 ATS for 73% winners and 24-3 SU since 1989. Play against road dogs. That are off a home dog SU win covering by 20 or more points. That are winning record teams. That are now taking to ther road installed as dogs. And Facing an opponent that has a winning record on the season.
The spreadsheet shown above displays all of the query results since 1989. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Kansas City Chiefs.
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10-01-17 | Bills +8 v. Falcons | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Buffalo (267) as they take on Atlanta in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win this game. Play a 7* wager using the line OR Play a 5* wager using the line and a 2* wager using the money line.
Round Table Discussion Points
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 60-27 ATS hitting 69% winners and has made 30.3 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on road teams (BUFFALO). Team is off 1 or more straight ‘overs’. Team is averaging just 17 or less points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is just 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Matt Ryan is 7-15 ATS as a home favorite of -4 ½ to -11 points. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bills and look for the shocking upset win. |
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09-30-17 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M -7.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 168 Texas A&M -89-30-2017 7:30 PM 7 Units Texas A&M -8 versus South Carolina Round Table Discussion Points We feel South Carolina is not as good as their 3-1 record. The Gamecocks came from behind last week to beat Louisiana Tech 17-16 and have a struggling offense. Texas A7M did the same last week coming back to beat Arkansas by 7 in overtime. The Aggies did put up 50 points in that game. Kevin Sumlin needs to keep winning to keep the Alums happy and the offense led by Kellen Mond has been clicking and the Aggies have some big play capabilities on defense. South Carolina has had numerous injuries and lost their best offensive weapon Deebo Samuel last week for the season. This is an offense that struggles and we don’t see them keeping pace with the Aggies today. Texas A&M won the last 3 against South Carolina and we look for a fourth today. Take Texas A&M and lay the 8 points
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive . 3 Strong Data Trends on the Aggies in this one. Texas A&M is 107-58 when scoring 28 or more points since 1992. South Carolina is 24-73 when allowing 28 points. South Carolina is 5-17 when outgained by 100 to 150 yards since 1992. South Carolina is just 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Texas A&M.
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09-30-17 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -8 | Top | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 190 Auburn -99-30-2017 6:00 PM 4 Units Auburn -9 Versus Mississippi State Round Table Discussion Points Mississippi State comes into this game taking a conference loss at Georgia last week 31-3 and now must face another strong defense again this week. Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham is starting to get comfortable with Gus Malzahn’s playbook, Stidham is completing a little over 70% on his attempts and today gets to play a big game in front of the Tiger faithful. The Tigers defense is stout against both the run and pass. Last year Auburn went to Starkville and won 38-14 jumping out to a 35-0 lead before putting it in cruise control. The personnel is similar and now the Tigers get the Bulldogs at home. The Bulldogs offense struggled at Georgia last week and we look for more of the same this week. Big expectations for Auburn this year and the Tigers look to go 2-0 in conference play today. Take Auburn and lay the 9 points
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points Play on any team allowing 17 points or less in last 2 games versus opponent scoring 6 or less in last game. 16 -4 ATS last 5 years good for 80% winners.
The average cover has been by 13.7 PPG. The four losses show that only one lost the game SU.
Matching SIM data queries Mississippi State is 28-47 ATS after scoring 14 or less in previous game since 1992 Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Tigers. |
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09-30-17 | South Florida -21 v. East Carolina | Top | 61-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
117 South Florida -23 9-30-2017 12:00 PM 7 Units South Florida -23 at East Carolina Some strong data trends on South Florida in this one. ECU is 2-11 when allowing 28 or more points the last 2 years ECU is 0-6 against opponents scoring over 31 points per game the last 2 years.
Play on road teams off a home win with 4 or more starters and experience QB against team with new QB is 47-18 ATS last 5 years.
Round Table Discussion Points Along with the strong trends we get a South Florida team who has their sights on an undefeated season and a big Bowl Game this year. Charlie Strong inherited a team with a top notch defense and an explosive QB in Quinton Flowers. The Bulls return 16 starters from last year’s 9-2 Bowl Team. Last year South Florida won 38-22 and the Bulls are much better while the Pirates are allowing 48 points per game. The Bulls only let up 17 points per game and the offense is balanced with both the run and pass and a very athletic QB. This is a team who can line up against any of the power-5 schools and we get them against a bad team today. Take South Florida -23 as the Bulls will be running today.
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09-29-17 | USC v. Washington State UNDER 62 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: 7* graded play on the ‘UNDER’ in the Washington State (112) - SOuthern Cal PAC-12 showdown set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 60 points will be scored in this game.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The ‘under’ has been a great money winner in the role where Wash State finds themselves tonight. Teams that have scored 40 or more points in three straight games and are now lined as home dogs facing a strong opponent that allowed 14 or fewer points in their last game have gone 7-0 ‘UNDER’ since 2006. The ‘under’ has gone under the total by an average of 12.4 points.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘UNDER’
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09-29-17 | Pirates +181 v. Nationals | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Pirates (903) as they take on the Nationals in MLB ction set to start at 7:05 PM ET.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Minnesota is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Nats are just 14-18 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Gerrit Cole is 3-1 in five career starts against the Nats with a solid 2.56 ERA and a 1.010 WHIP. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Pirates.
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09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the NY Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The recommended play is to make a 7* wager on the line. An optional wager is to make a 5* play using the line and then a 2* wager using the money line. Round Table Discussion Points Eli Manning has consistently targeted his TE, Engram’s way through the first two weeks, targeting him a total of 12 times, tied for ninth most in the league among tight ends. The rookie could potentially have a tough matchup this week, coming up against linebacker Jordan Hicks. However, Hicks has had a surprisingly slow start to his third season, currently grading as the second worst linebacker in the league among 78 qualifying linebackers. The key matchup, though, will be Odell Beckham, Jr. against Rasul Douglas or Jalen Mills, who are both rookie corners. Douglas is the better of the two through two weeks, so look for the Giants to force the matchup onto Jalen Mills. Whether ODB is 80% or not, any rookie corner is going to be overwhelmed by his athleticism and size. The fact that ODB is even on the field presents significant matchup problems for the Eagles. This will open up better opportunities for Eli to target his TE, which will open up the gaps in the running game too. Giants have not been able to rush the ball or even establish the run since they have fallen behind in each of their first two games. However, teams that have rushed for 99 or less yards in two straight games are a solid 35-24 ATS for 59% winners since the start of the 2016 season. In NFC East games only, these teams are a perfect 3-0 ATS.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points Giants are 0-2 and in full desperation mode. Making matters worse is that they now find themselves on the road against a division foe in a very, very hostile environment. As a rule that we are taught as young children, never approach a wounded animal and this is certainly the case in this matchup. In the NFC, since 2006 season, these matchups have seen the 0-2 loser go 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS for 80% winners. When these wounded animals take to the road , they are 5-1 ATS and SU since 2006. Since, 1989, these traveling winless teams have gone 13-9 SU and 14-8 ATS. As you can see from the data above, the times that these dogs don’t come through, they are absolutely destroyed. In 2013, the Giants were destroyed 38-0 and were installed as 1 ½ point favorites.
There is more data that supports a strong effort from the Giants. They are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Giants.
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09-23-17 | Penn State -11 v. Iowa | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 10* graded play on Penn State as they take on Iowa in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by more than 14 points.
Round Table Discussion Points Sometimes the matchup is Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley trying to beat a loaded up box through the air, but this one is all about if the Hawkeyes can slow down or stop No. 26 in white. Even when holes haven’t there for Barkley he has simply burned team through the air, hauling in 11 catches for 241 yards and two touchdowns so far. Iowa will just not be able to contain all of the PSU offensive weapons for the entire game. The PSU offensive line has been fantastic as well in all types of formations. If Iowa does load the box, look for Barkey to come out of the backfield and line up in the slot before the snap (late in the time clock). Iowa will have no choice, but to have a LB on him. Causing added confusion for Iowa, is if they want to use a safety to help to double Barkley, the middle of the field will be vast plain of open area for crossing routes with the TE and WR. As the metrics show, there is only a minimal chance that this Iowa defense could hold PSU to fewer than 28 points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they gain 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt. PSU is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. PSU is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points over the last 3 seasons. PSU is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. PSU 59-13 ATS (+44.7 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play. PSU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is just 19-64 ATS (-51.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. Iowa is 3-24 ATS (-23.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41. Iowa is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Iowa is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt. Iowa is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 rushing yards per attempt. Iowa is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when they score 15 to 21 points. Iowa is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. Iowa is 8-27 ATS (-21.7 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play. Iowa is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards. Iowa is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 2 to 2.5 yards/play. Iowa is 4-28 ATS (-26.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play.
PSU has scored 50+ points in 2 of their first three games and now find themselves installed as double digit favorites on the road against an undefeated host. Teams in this role are a perfect 13-0 and 10-3 ATS, and 9-4 ‘UNDER’ over the past 2 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Penn State.
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09-23-17 | Mississippi State v. Georgia -3 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Georgia (324) as they take on Mississippi State in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by at least 10 points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 78-18 hitting 81% winners using the money line and has made 38 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against road underdogs using the money line. Off a home win by 17 points or more. In the first month of the season. After closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins. M-State is coming off a huge epoch win destroying then ranked LSU as 8.5 point dogs. In SEC play, these types of emotional wins do not follow through into the next game, especially when it’s on the road. Teams in this role and installed as 3 point or more road warriors are just 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in SEC action. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bulldogs of Georgia.
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09-23-17 | Alabama v. Vanderbilt +19.5 | Top | 59-0 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Vanderbilt (380) as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by fewer than 17 points.
7* amount using the line, which is currently at 18.5 points. 2* using the money line, which is averaging about +825 at majority of books offering this opportunity.
This is 9* amount of risk, but it is well defined and disciplined. The combination of the two parts reflects an optimized ROI.
Round Table Discussion Points Every season, there is that one game where my technology will identify a DOG of greater than 17 points and by some terrestrial act, they end up up pulling off the epoch upset. The problem is that I don’t believe there ever will be a technology that will be able to accurately identify these games. If there was, then why would we watch this game or any sporting event as it is the thrill of the unknown that brings such great passion to live sporting events. I am very confident, though, that Vanderbilt will give Alabama a true test. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Vanderbilt is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of data queries that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 39-10 hitting 80% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points. After 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. And has a winning record on the season.
Since the start of the 2013 season, this data query has produced a 7-2 ATS mark good for 78% winners with an average cover of 8.4 points. In 2016, it went 3-1 ATS with TWO straight up winners. The upset alert dogs that pulled off the upset win last year was first Penn State, who had the miracle win over Ohio State installed as 18 point home dogs and won the game 24-21. The second game was when Houston hosted Louisville as 16 point dogs and destroyed them 36-10.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Vanderbilt.
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09-22-17 | Utah v. Arizona +3.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Arizona as they take on in action set to start at PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.
The recommended play is to wager a 5* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 55-21 ATS hitting 72.4% winners and has made 32 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. After a win by 17 or more points. And is now facing an opponent after scoring 42 points or more last game.
In 2014, the query went 12-9 SU and a solid 16-5 ATS for 76.2% ATS winners and an average coverage of 8.2 points. In 2015, the query produced a 11-15 SU mark and went 19-7 ATS good for 65.4% ATS winners with the average ATS coverage of 5.4 points. In 2016, this query produced a SU mark of 7-13 and a very strong 15-5 ATS good for 75% ATS winners with an average coverage of of 3.7 points.
In all of PAC-12 action since 2012, the query has produced a 6-14 SU mark, but has been a money maker with a 15-5 ATS mark. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Arizona. |
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09-22-17 | Giants +195 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Giants (963) as they take on the Dodgers in MLB action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. Wager a 7* play using the money line, which is currently at +200. Wager a 4* amount using the money line and a 3* play using the Run Line, which is currently at + 1 ½ -105.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, San Francisco is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive +173 DOG play. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more. After allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival. Starting a pitcher who walked 1 or fewer hitters each of his last 2 outings. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dodgers are a money losing 10-15 (-18.1 Units) against the money line after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse this season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Giants.
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers (302) as they take on the Los Angeles Rams in NFL Thursday Night football action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Fran will win this game. Make a 7* wager getting the points on SF. Combination wager consisting of a 5* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line. Optional: Make a 3* reverse parlay wager using the line and the ‘OVER’.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 34-11 ATS hitting 76% winners and has made 22.0 units/unit wagered since the beginning of the 2008 season. Of the 45 games played, 60% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points and under scores the upset potential for the 49ers. Play on any team. After scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games.
The spreadsheet above is displaying the last 5 seasons of results for the data query. Over the past 5 seasons, it has produced a 10-4 SU mark, 11-3 ATS mark, and a 10-4 ‘OVER’ mark. The average SU margin has been 4.86 points and the average spread cover has been by 7.8 points and the total points has covered the ‘over’ by an average of 9.3 points.
Rams find themselves installed as a modest favorite for the third straight game. The Rams are an imperfect 0-5 ATS in this role coming off a home loss. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the 49ers and the other recommended wagers. |
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09-19-17 | Nationals -205 v. Braves | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Washington (909) as they take on Atlanta in MLB action set to start at 7:35 PM ET. There are two ways to play this release. Play a 7* amount using the money line Play a combination wager using a 5* play using the money line and a 2* play using the Run Line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following grid shows the 2017 games that qualified as releases based on a specific data query. That data set shows the games and results playing against a home dog of 150 or more and has a starter that won his last start pitching 6 or more innings and allowing 6 or fewer hits. It has produced a record of 5-16 and making 7.24 units/unit wagered in 2017 with an average line of -185. The average loss of these home dogs was 3.14 runs per game. Since 2007 season, this data set has produced a 47-128 record and a -29 ROI, 76-97 Run Line record and a -12.8 ROI. Since 2015, it has produced a 15-42 record and -29 ROI, 23-34 Run Line record and -20 ROI.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Nationals tonight. |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 42 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play ‘UNDER’ in the MNF game between the Giants and the Lions set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored in this game.
We are releasing this play late to give you the best intelligence on the status of ODB. He is probable to play and we expect the ‘total’ to move a point higher in the next few hours leading up to game time. We recommend waiting to about 30 minutes before game time and placing your wager then. If the line does move, then there will be a wave of under best in that last 30 minutes as the ‘pro’ bettors square up positions. The following system has gone 23-5 ‘under’ hitting 82% winners and has made 17.5 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play ‘under’ with any team against the total. In the first 2 weeks of the year. After closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses. And in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are 25-45 ATS ‘Under’ since 1992 when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play. Giants are 7-1 ‘under’ when they allow an opponent to gain fewer than 75 rushing yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘UNDER’
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09-17-17 | Redskins v. Rams -2.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the RAMS (282) as they take on the Redskins in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game by more than 6 points.
Round Table Discussion Points
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 38-5 hitting 88% winners and has made 32.5 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play against road teams using the money line. Off a home loss by 10 or more points. And now facing an opponent off a home win. These road money burners have gone just 17-25-1 ATS for 40% winners.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rams. |
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09-17-17 | Eagles v. Chiefs OVER 47 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play ‘OVER’ in the Philadelphia Eagles - KC Chiefs matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.
Round Table Discussion Points Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs come off a big win in New England while the Eagles beat the Redskins in the opener. The Chiefs lost all pro safety Eric Berry last week to injury and the Eagles should be able to move the ball through the air. The Eagles also lost cornerback Ronald Darby to an already weak secondary. Both teams bring the ability to make big plays with their special teams. This game sets up nicely for both offenses and we look for some points to be put up on the scoreboard in Kansas City, Sunday afternoon.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points Supporting the passing attacks in this matchup are the strong running games. The chiefs gained 185 rushing yards in their upset win over the Patriots in Week 1. We expect them to gain 150 more rushing yards in this matchup today. The following data shows the results of games played by the Chiefs after gaining 150 or more rushing yards and then gaining 150 or more in the next game. Since 1980, the Chiefs are 31-7 SU and 29-8-1 ATS and 23-14 ‘over’ in this rushing situation. Since Andy Ried arrived in KC at the start of the 2011 season, the Chiefs have gone 5-2 ‘over’ and have cashed the last four ‘over’ tickets.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’ in this matchup. |
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09-16-17 | Texas v. USC OVER 67.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on ‘OVER’ TEXAS - USC (202) in NCAAF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that 70 or more points will be scored in this game.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 25-4 ‘over’ hitting 86% winners and has made 20.6 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play ‘Over’ with all teams. Where the total is between 63.5 and 70. After allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. And now facing an opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is a solid 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) when they allow 550 or more total yards
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’.
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09-16-17 | Oregon v. Wyoming +14 | Top | 49-13 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Wyoming (186) as they take on Oregon in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oregon will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and can possibly pull off the home upset.
The recommended strategy is to place a 7* amount on the line and then add a 2.5* amount using the money line. We also like playing ‘over’ the first half total for a 3* amount. If you want to add more defined risk, then consider playing a reverse parlay with Wyoming on the money line and the ‘over’ and Wyoming plus the points and the ‘over’ for 1* each.
Round Table Discussion Points The Wyoming Cowboys comes off an easy win against Gardner & Webb while the Oregon Ducks beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Eugene last week. The Ducks took a big lead into the locker room at halftime and did not show up in the second half, but still held on to beat the Cornhuskers. Wyoming played a tough road game to begin the season at Iowa and struggled against the physical Hawkeye defense. The Cowboys stop troops have played well this year and can limit the big play capabilities of the Oregon offense. Future pro QB Josh Allen should find the sledding a little easier against the Oregon defense. Big game in Laramie for the Cowboys and we look for Allen to make enough plays to keep this one close throughout. Take Wyoming and the generous amount of points.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics The games shown above are when Oregon has allowed their opponent to score 28 or more points since the 2015 season inclusive. In these games, they have gone just 4-8 SU and a miserable money burning 2-9-1 ATS. The ‘over’ has been a successful wager going 7-4-1. So, the Bayesian probability analyses overwhelmingly project that Wyoming will score 28 points and with potential to achieve that level before the end of the first half.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 23-11 using the Money Line hitting 68% winners and has made 22.4 units/unit wagered since 2013. The system has also averaged an impressive +145 dog play. Play on a home team using the money line. After allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game. And is now facing an opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Wyoming Cowboys.
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09-16-17 | LSU -7 v. Mississippi State | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on LSU (187) as they take on Mississippi State in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by at least 11 points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 55-21 hitting 72.4% winners and has made 31.9 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on road favorites. After allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games. And facing an opponent where 60 total points or more were scored in their last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is a solid 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards. LSU is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. LSU is 103-53 ATS (+44.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points. LSU is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards. M-State is just 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 points. M-State is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt. M-State is 7-32 ATS (-28.2 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards. M-State is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. M-State is 10-44 ATS (-38.4 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the LSU Tigers.
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09-16-17 | Oklahoma State v. Pittsburgh OVER 63.5 | Top | 59-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play taking the ‘OVER’ in the Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh matchup set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 65 points will be score in this game. Make a 7* wager using the total line, which is at 63 ½ currently.
Round Table Discussion Points Look to go over the total in this one the high scoring Cowboy offense led by Mason Rudolph is putting up big numbers in 2017 very similar to 2016. Last year these teams combined for 83 points and we look for more of the same today. The Cowboys averaged 37 points per game last year and have scored 51 per game this year. Big play receiver James Washington is off to another strong start with 243 yards and 3 Touchdowns in 2 games and the Cowboys have a full stable of receivers for Rudolph. Oklahoma State also has a stable of running backs averaging close to 250 yards per game. The Panthers will need to take some risks defensively today and can lead to big plays for both sides. Pitt is replacing some big weapons offensively but can move the ball, the panthers offense should find playing against the Cowboy defense a lot friendlier than what they faced in State College last week against Penn State. We think Pitt can put up some points but can't see Pitt stopping Rudolph and the high flying Cowboy Offense. Look for another high scoring game in this contest this afternoon. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 25-4 ‘over’ hitting 86% winners and has made 20.6 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play ‘Over’ with all teams. Where the total is between 63.5 and 70. After allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. And now facing an opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OKST is a solid 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. OKST is 32-12 OVER (+18.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’ in this matchup. |
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09-15-17 | Diamondbacks v. Giants +145 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on San Francisco (914) as they take on Arizona in MLB action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. The recommended wager is to place a 5* amount using the money line and add a 2* amount using the Run Line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, the Giants are today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large collection of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 40-21 hitting 65.6% winners and has made 34 units/unit wagered since 1997. The system has also averaged an impressive 137.2 dog play. Play on all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175. Team is an average hitting team batting between .255 to .269. Facing an average NL starting pitcher posting an ERA between 4.20 to 5.20. And with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP of 0.800 or less over his last 3 starts.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Giants.
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09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple -15 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Temple (106) as they take on UMASS in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. Make a straight 7* wager amount on Temple minus the points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 35-10 hitting 80% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points. The team outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game Current game is a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UMASS is just 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. UMASS is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when they rush for 50 to 100 yards. UMASS is a near imperfect 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they rush for 2 to 2.5 yards per attempt. UMASS is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they gain less than 250 total yards. UMASS is an imperfect 0-15 ATS (-16.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards. Temple is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Temple is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Temple is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards. Temple is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Temple is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points. Temple is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow less than 250 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Temple is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Temple Owls. |
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09-13-17 | Astros +107 v. Angels | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Houston (927) as they take on LA Angels in MLB action set to start at 10:05 PM ET. Play is a 7* amount using the money line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is 16-6 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. When Skaggs starts, Angels are just 1-9 (-9.6 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Houston Astros. |
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09-13-17 | Braves v. Nationals -285 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -285 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Washington Nationals (902) as they take on the Atlanta Braves in MLB action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. 5* play using the money line combined with a 2* play using the Run Line. Option is to add a 1 * amount using the -2 ½ Run Line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 38-7 hitting 84% winners and has made 27.2 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play against road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher. Team is an average hitting team batting between .255 to .269. Against a good NL starting pitcher posting an ERA of 3.70 or lower. With a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Scherzer is a solid 106-39 (+30.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more since 1997. Nationals are 24-4 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in home games off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Washington Nationals. |
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09-12-17 | Padres v. Twins -164 | Top | 0-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Twins (980) as they take on the Padres in MLB action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. The recommended wager is to create a combination wager using a 5* play on the money line and a 2* play using the Run Line.
Fundamental Matchups, Data Metrics, and Round Table Takeaways Twins are holding a 1-game lead over the Angels for the second wild card berth and will facing what many in the media call an easy schedule. Skipper Paul molitor corrected that by saying “ I find it a little bit comical. I saw something about the lack of teams we play that are over .500 as early as a couple of weeks ago. But the last time I checked, (the games) were all going to be against major league teams." That type of leadership is critical for the Twins right now to keep playing one pitch, one out, one inning, one game at a time. Statements like this one can be more powerful than having the team ace on the hill. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points Padres have won 6 of their last 10 games, which isn’t bad for a losing record team. However, teams that are facing a team that have won 6 or more of their last 10 and are installed as a favorite lined at -170 and higher have gone 67-24 for 73.6% winners making 23.22 units/unit wagered in 2017. Moreover, this same situation has produced a 55-36 record against the Run Line for 60.4% winners making 18.55 units/unit wagered and a very nice 18.5% ROI. The Twins are a perfect 4-0 SU and 4-0 RL in the 2017 season.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Twins. |
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09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 42 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on ‘OVER’ the posted total in the MNF matchup between the Chargers and the Broncos set to start at 10:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 44 points will be scored.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 36-12 hitting 75% winners and has made 22.8 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play ‘over’ with any team. Where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. And is a solid offensive team from last season scoring 24 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is 25-12 OVER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games when they rush for 75 to 100 yards. Denver is 175-50 ‘over’ when scoring 24 or more points. Denver is 105-29 ‘over’ in home games when scoring 24 or more points. Chargers are 91-24 ‘over’ when scoring 21 or more points in away gamnes.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’. |
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09-10-17 | Seahawks v. Packers -3 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 105 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Team Analysis Seatlle- Seattle has a weakness in its O-line, but their skill players are what shows promise this season. QB Russell Wilson has developed solid in-the-pocket skills in a spread passing attack, while maintaining his ability to improvise on the move. WR Doug Baldwin can beat defenders in a number of ways, while TE Jimmy Graham still causes matchup problems. RB Thomas Rawls is a violent runner, while change-of-pace RB C.J. Prosise looked great in limited action as a rookie. The Seahawks gave up the third fewest points and the lowest yards per carry average in the league last season. Green Bay- Not much more I can say about Aaron Rodgers that you don’t already know. WR Jordy Nelson is nearly impossible to cover one-on-one, and Rodgers makes up for the lack of talent in the rest of his receiving group. RB Ty Montgomery impressed after moving from WR, but his durability is questionable and the Packers lack depth at RB. Two second-round picks, CB Kevin King and S Josh Jones, need to get up to speed quickly. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett are a solid safety combo, but if the Packers can't cover, they'll be forced into many shootouts. Recent Trends Seattle Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Green Bay Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Head to Head Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay. Personal Analysis Although the Seahawks play a better team on paper, something about Rodgers and his competitiveness seems to be concerning. Along with Rodgers comes the notorious Lambeau field lure. As you can see from the trends, it’s not looking too optimistic for the Seahawks. This should be a tight game early, but the Packers will come out on top and cover the spread. |
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09-10-17 | Colts v. Rams -4.5 | Top | 9-46 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the LA Rams (472) as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game. If you like the money line play only, we have no issue with that strategy. Make certain you are risking a 7* amount, which at current money lines of -200 would be a wager risking 7* amount to make a 3.5* amount.
Round Table Discussion Points Not good numbers for either team in this one based on last year’s performance metrics. We like the fact that a much improved Rams defense will be going up against Scott Tolzien, who has not won a game in his career as a starter. Today we get to lay a field goal with a team, who has the better defense and offense against a team who will be without their QB field general today. This is the second year for Ram QB Jared Goff and we look for some major improvement this year. Also, Goff has additional playmakers to work with this season. Look for Todd Gurley to get off to a good start against the weak Colts defense front five. This in turn will force the Colts linebackers to creep closer to the LOS to cover the A and B gaps. Then, Goff, will have play action knowing his WR are in man coverage.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 48-20 using the money line hitting 71% winners and has made 25.3 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play against any team using the money line. Poor passing defense from last season that allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt. In non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pagano is just 2-8 against the money line (-8.4 Units) in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of the Colts. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rams. |
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09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Chicago Bears (456) as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Bears will cover this number and may win this game. The recommended strategy is to make this release a combination wager using a 5* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics We are expecting the Bears ground attack led by Howard to present quite a problem for the Atlanta defensive front. The SIm projects that the Bears will have at least 125 rushing yards. In past games where Atlanta allowed 125 or more rushing yards, they are 23-42 ATS since 1992 and 58-125-2 ATS since 1980. This situation is not exclusive to the Falcons, but it is one that applies to the majority of matchups in the NFL. Since the 2013 season, the Falcons are 5-10 ATS and 3-12 SU when allowing more than 150 rushing yards.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 22-4 ATS hitting 85% winners and has made 17.6 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on any team team. That had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season. In conference matchups.. Super Bowl Losers have an extended hangover and the Falcons certainly should have that in place after their historic collapse. SB losers are just 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS since 2000 season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bears.
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09-09-17 | Auburn +5.5 v. Clemson | Top | 6-14 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 10* graded play on Auburn (377) as they take on Clemson in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game. We see current lines at Clemson installed as a five point favorite. 67% of the best wagered are on Clemson, but the large bettors are on the Tigers as evident by the line moving lower from the -6 opening level. The analytics clearly show a high probability that this line will move to 4.5. The recommended strategy is to play a 5* amount on the line and a 2* play using the money line. The money line is currently at +170
Round Table Discussion Points Auburn comes into this game off an easy 41-7 game against Georgia Southern while Clemson was beating up Kent State 36-3. The Clemson Tigers return 12 starters from last years National Championship team with 7 on the defensive side of the Ball. Auburn returns 15 starters from last years 8-5 Bowl team. Clemson QB Kelly Bryant went 16/22 for 236 yards with a TD and an interception in his first start taking over for the dynamic Deshaun Watson. Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham struggled some in his first start for the Tigers after transferring from Baylor. Stidham went 14/24 for 185 yards with 2 TD’s and a pick. Both teams rushed the ball well last week and the defenses were stellar. Clemson beat Auburn by 6 last year at Auburn and we look for a very tight game again this year, but this time around there is no Deshaun Watson. This is a big early game for both teams and look for the offense minded Gus Malzahn to come up with a little more wrinkles to the offense and possibly even steal a game in Death Valley.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 40-11 hitting 78.4% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. In the first month of the season. After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. Team that had a winning record last season. This money line query has produced incredible results and underscores the probability that Auburn will win this game. It has produced a 19-7 mark and has made 25.8 units/unit wagered since 2013. It has averaged a quite impressive +173 Dog play. Play on a road team using the money line. After allowing 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game. Facing an opponent that out rushed their last opponent by 200 or more yards. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Auburn is a solid 13-4 against the money line (+12.3 Units) when they rush for 5.5 to 6 yards per attempt Auburn is 39-8 against the money line (+36.4 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. Auburn is 95-9 against the money line (+103.2 Units) when they score 28 or more point.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Auburn with the 6 points in this tightly contested affair.
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09-09-17 | Western Michigan v. Michigan State -7.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Michigan State (310) as they take on Western Michigan in NCAA action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.
Round Table Discussion Points The Spartans come into this one easily beating Bowling Green 35-10 last week, while Western Michigan lost a hard fought game last week in the Coliseum to Southern Cal. Western Michigan put up 31 points on USC rushing for 263 yards while giving 232 yards on the ground. Western Michigan QB Jon Wassink struggled in the passing game completing 50% of his passes for a mere 67 yards. Spartan QB Brian Lewerke went 22/33 for 250 yards and 3 Touchdowns. The Spartan defense held Bowling Green to 67 yards on the ground. This all brings us to the value in this pick as Western had a tough game last week and now go into East Lansing taking only a Touchdown. This line is based on records from last year as the wheels came off the bus for the Spartans after the Wisconsin Game while Western Michigan was having a special year going 13-1 and a major bowl game. This is now 2017 and the red faced Spartans will be hungry for this one and won't overlook the Broncos. Perfect set up here for Sparty.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 34-10 hitting 77% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. In the first month of the season. After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. Facing an opponent in the first month of the season. And the opponent closed out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. WMU is just 34-72 ATS (-45.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. WMU is just 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards. MSU is a solid 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. MSU is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt. MSU is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games when they gain 450 to 500 total yards.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Spartans. |
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09-09-17 | Louisville -9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 47-35 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Louisville (323) as they take on North Carolina in NCAAF action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Louisville will win this game by more than 10 points. Play a 7* amount using the line.
UNC is off an embarrassing home loss to California in Week1 losing 35-30 as 13 point favorites. Team that have had this type of demoralizing week 1 loss are just 3-22 SU and 8-17 ATS in week 2 games installed as 6.5 point or more dogs. A bonus play based on this query is to take Idaho as they host UNLV.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 31-6 ATS hitting 84% winners and has made 24.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a home team. In the first month of the season or first four weeks. After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. And is now facing an opponent that was a bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Louisville 106-55 ATS (+45.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Louisville is 41-19 ATS (+20.1 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards. UNC is a money burning 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games when they allow 29 to 35 points. UNC is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when they allow 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt. UNC is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards. UNC is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Louisville Cardinal.
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09-06-17 | Blue Jays +153 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 10* graded play on the Toronto Blue Jays (as they take on Arizona in MLB action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. Make a 7* wager amount on the under dog Blue Jays.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 43-23 hitting 65% winners and has made 33.7 units/unit wagered since 2013. The system has also averaged an impressive +132 Dog play. Play against all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175. Has strong defensive play allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season. And after two straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base.
Here is a second system that has gone 48-34 for 59% winners and has made 44.8 units/unit wagered since 1997.
Play against all favorites with a money line of -150 or more. Averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season. And after 2 straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Fister’s team record is just 3-10 (-10.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Toronto Blue Jays. |
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09-04-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -142 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -142 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Dodgers as they take on Arizona in MLB action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. Make a straight 7* amount using the money line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 61-17 hitting 78% winners and has made 35.1 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play against NL road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher. Good offensive team scoring >=4.5 runs/game on the season. In September games. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dodgers. |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Tennessee (213) as they take on Georgia Tech in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Play a 7* amount on the line currently at - 3 1/2 .
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 30-6 ATS hitting 83% winners and has made 23.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. 60% of the games played have covered the spread by 7 or more points and underscores the high probability that Tennessee will win this game vt more than 10 points. Play against any team in the first week of the season. After closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers. Team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%). Playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match the expected projections and outcomes compiled by the comprehensive research. 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt. 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt. 109-48 ATS (+56.2 Units) when they score 28 or more points. 23-4 ATS (+18.6 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points. 42-12 ATS (+28.8 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards. 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they gain 7.5 or more total yards per play. G-Tech is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when they allow 550 or more total yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Volunteers.
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M +5 v. UCLA | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Texas A&M (211) as they take on UCLA in NCAAF action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. Play a 7* amount on the line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 39-11 ATS hitting 78% winners and has made 26.9 units/unit wagered since 1992. 41% of the games played have covered the spread by 7 or more points and underscores the high probability that A&M will win this game SU. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. In the first month of the season. After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. Team that had a winning record last season. The following game situations match the expected projections and outcomes compiled by the comprehensive research. UCLA is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they rush for 50 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons. A&M is a strong 42-20 ATS (+20.0 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Aggies.
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09-03-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -132 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -132 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Colorado as they take on Arizona in MLB action set to start at 3:10 PM ET. Make a straight 7* amount using the money line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 37-8 hitting 82% winners and has made 26.9 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher. After 9 or more consecutive wins. Posting a winning record on the season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rockies.
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09-03-17 | Royals v. Twins -183 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -183 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Minnesota Twins as they take on in MLB action set to start at 2:10 PM ET. Make a straight 7* wager on the Twins. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 52-23 hitting 69% winners and has made 29.5 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play against any team. With a starting pitcher posting a winning percentage of worse than 30%. With a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Twins. |
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09-02-17 | Florida State +7 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
Favoring The UnderDawg.
Everyone loves a games where two goliaths of college football face-off. Alabama is statistically one of the best dynasties ever in NCAA History, if not the best. While Florida State is always assembles a solid squad year after year. In this match up, there is many variables. Alabama is returning only 11 starters and Florida State is relying on their strong defense to carry the team in this game and throughout the regular season.
Alabama and other major schools are accustomed to simply reloading and the return of starters is not that critical unless they are facing a team like FSU. Alabama does get positive marks returning most of the skill positions, in Jalen Hurts, Bo Scarbrough, and Calvin Ridley. Bama’s defense is predicted to be top 10, per usual. What might hurt them is team chemistry during the first month of the season.
Florida State features one of the best defenses in their school history and one that the offense can feed off of. The offensive success will rely mostly on the new O-line protecting Deondre Francois. This O-line can run block with the best and you will see them push the ‘Bama D-Line back on their heels on the majority of plays. This is the crucial situation that will allow FSU to open up the run game and then use play action pass to elite and very fast WR that will be in man coverages.
This is the first time that a No. 1 ranked team will play a No. 3 ranked team this early in the season. So, there is little history to learn from that have similar characteristics. Bama will have to learn how to work together rapidly, as they play a whole new half of a team. While going up against a team that will most likely win the ACC Conference. Clemson is realistically the only team in the Conference that will give FSU any sort of test. |
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09-02-17 | Temple v. Notre Dame -18.5 | Top | 16-49 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
For one of our top plays this weekend we go to South Bend Indiana and our taking the Fighting Irish laying 18 points to the Temple Owls. We loved the game at the opening line under 2 TD’s, but the betting public has pushed this up to 18 points. Although Notre Dame comes off a 4-8 season losing their top Quarterback and many experts predicting a close outcome along with Temple coming off a 10-4 season going 12-2 ATS, you may ask how could the Irish be our top play? Several factors come into play on this one but the first is the leadership and news coming out of South Bend. Basically no news last year's team started with suspensions and issues with the players and was void any real leadership, basically all things are quiet and the expectations down for the Irish. The next matter is the Irish are loaded with talent and some of that is up front in the trenches. Next we see a lot of similarities to the 2013 game where Matt Rhule the ex Temple coach started his career at Temple and the Irish jumped out early and easily covered a similar type of spread putting up over 500 yards of Offense. New Temple head coach Geoff Collins is facing a similar situation losing a lot of Seniors especially on the defense and losing QB PJ Walker. Now the talent that Matt Rhule left is better than what he inherited. We still feel this is not the ideal situation for a young QB. Although the Owls only gave up 283 yards and 18 points per game many of those players are gone. Brandon Wimbush takes over an Irish offense that put up 31 points per game and 418 yards of offense. Wimbush has plenty of offense weapons from Running Back Josh Adams and leading receiver Equanimous St. Brown along with a full stable of running backs and receivers. The Irish although not deep up front have a lot more playmakers on defense this year. The Irish have strong Special teams this year which will also aid in this one. For halftime betters look for a favorable first half line as Notre Dame usually starts with the football. Take the Irish and lay the points today as we like Notre Dame to take the fight to the Cherry and the White. |
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09-01-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees -162 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -162 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Boston Red Sox (76-57) @ New York Yankees (70-62) Yankee Stadium Fister(3-7) V. Gray(8-8) Statistical Analysis BOS- Doug Fister has been everything but consistent this season. His statistics on the year are below average to say the least. Sporting a 4.53 ERA over 59.2 innings and a 3-7 record. Even though BOS serve up constant run support and at the top team in the division fister is still struggling in his starts. I don’t see him having an flashes of excellence anytime soon. NYY- Sonny Gray on the other hand is back to his usual self after a tough season in 2016. He has a 3.25 ERA in 127.1 innings with an 8-8 record. Since being traded from OAK to the NYY, he has a 2.70 ERA only going 2-3. Run support has been the biggest issue for him. Aaron Judge isn’t on as hot of a streak since after the all star break. The young line-up is still figuring out how to jell together and beome a force even though they are the second best team in the division. The Yankees are also 37-26 at home this season. Final Analysis In this matchup I am selecting the favorite. The Yankees are playing at home where they have had most of their success. Sonny gray is on the mound who has been a one pitch warrior all season and Doug fister is still struggling to find a groove. If Sonny can get some help on the offensive side this game should be in the bag. |
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08-27-17 | Brewers v. Dodgers -191 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -191 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) as they take on the Milwaukee Brewers in MLB action set to start at 4:10 PM ET.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics Milwaukee will start a struggling Jimmy Nelson while the Dodgers start a highly tune Yu Darvish. Nelson has posted a 9.00 ERA and 2.200 WHIP over his last 3 starts spanning just 15 IP. Darvish has posted an impressive 2.50 ERA with a 1.111 WHIP over his last three starts spanning 18 IP and with 22 Ks. Dodgers were held scoreless in yesterday’s 3-0 loss to the Brewers. The Dodgers are 10-2 SU and 8-4 RL following a game where they were shutout at home since 2014. Further, Justin Turner was held hitless Saturday. The Dodgers are 12-1 SU after Turner was hitless in the previous game.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
Dodgers are 45-14 (+24.7 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game this season. Dodgers are 87-34 (+35.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Dodgers are 58-17 (+31.9 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. Dodgers are 55-16 (+30.1 Units) against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dodgers. |
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08-26-17 | Cubs -193 v. Phillies | Top | 17-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Chicago Cubs (903) as they take on Philadelphia in MLB action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Cubs are lined just below -200, so this does open up the opportunity to use the combination wager and reduce risk without altering the ROI of this play. The recommended wager is to place a 5* amount using the line and add a 2* play using the - 1 ½ Run Line, which will be about -110 to -120.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 229-80 hitting 74.1% winners and has made 86.8 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play on all NL favorites with a money line of -150 or more. With a starting pitcher posting an ERA is 3.70 or better on the season. Team is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher that allows 0.5 or less HR/start. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cubs are 33-18 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in road games facing a starting pitcher that gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last three seasons. Phillies are just 29-61 (-27.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
Methodology Discussion Points Kyle Hendricks is pitching very well posting a 2.16 ERA over his last three starts. He is not a dominating power starter, but he moves the ball well and is able to induce batters to swing at his pitches in favorable pitcher counts. This high performance level has been evident in his three career starts against the Phillies where he has posted a 2.61 ERA and a 0.822 WHIP.
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Cubs. |
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08-26-17 | Oregon State +3.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 27-58 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Oregon State (291) as they take on Colorado State in NCAAF action set to start at 2:30 PM ET. The recommended strategy is to wager a 5* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line to exploit the significant probability of an SU Oregon State win.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive . The following game situations match the expected projections and outcomes compiled by the comprehensive research. Oregon State is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. Oregon State is 91-31 ATS (+56.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Oregon State 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yard. Oregon State is 33-11 ATS (+20.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play. Colorado State 37-90 ATS (-62.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. Colorado State 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) when they allow 6 or more rushing yards per attempt. Oregon State is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Oregon State Beavers.
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08-26-17 | Leicester v. Manchester United -375 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
This may be too simple of an outlook, but Manchester United are unbeatable at the moment. It will take a significant turn around for them to concede points at home and we don’t see that negative turn around happening this week. Leicester are a good side, and will challenge many teams this season, hopefully pushing for a top 6 place in the table this year. They are strong going forward, but they will have a tough time stopping United from scoring. It is a bad line as United are favored, but its not egregious enough to take a flier on the upset. Expected Result: 3-0 Manchester United |
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08-26-17 | West Ham United v. Newcastle United +130 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 130 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
Newcastle have proven to be a frustrating side this year. They have played tough against Spurs to open the season, but ultimately lost after a grave mistake. Last week they lost a game against the up starts from Huddersfield. Their inability to repeat a strong performance against an opponent they beat last season, and who were also newly promoted to the EPL, is difficult to swallow. Their backline let them down, and Huddersfield has proven to be a formidable side, making a case for a mid-table finish this season. West Ham, on the other hand, have been poor. They were thoroughly beaten by their opponents and look to be in the basement of the EPL this season. • With both teams being in the basement of the table currently, it would be easy to see a draw coming from these two sides. We believe that the talent that is present in Newcastle should reign supreme for this match. Playing at home their defense should remain solid, and they will create goal scoring chances against West Ham, as everyone else has this season. Expected Result: 2-1 Newcastle |
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08-26-17 | Swansea City +315 v. Crystal Palace | Top | 2-0 | Win | 315 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
Crystal Palace have had a terrible start to the year. They were beaten by upstart Huddersfield, and then followed that up with a 1-0 loss last week at Liverpool. They find themselves in the bottom looking up at teams who are less talented than they are. Christian Benteke needs to find the back of the net, and hopefully they can find a way to prevent goals. • Swansea are not much better, but they have pulled out a draw this year. They ran into the unstoppable force that is the Manchester United attack last week, but should hopefully rebound well. The way Palace has defended so far this year should allow the wingers from Swansea to get in behind the defense. Their lack of a central playmaker may show in this game, but we except them to find the net and pull out a win. Expected Result: 1-0 Swansea City |
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08-26-17 | Brighton and Hove Albion v. Watford | Top | 0-0 | Push | 0 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
This is the first chance for Brighton to steal points this year. Their compact defense has been broken down so far by some experienced EPL teams, and they have struggled to get the ball forward, and put pressure on the oppositions defense. They have played well, even though they have gotten zero points from their first two games in the new stint in the EPL. • Watford successfully got past Bournemouth last week, and we expect them to keep up their competitiveness this weekend. After a strong showing at home against Liverpool, and last week against Bournemouth, Watford already have 5 goals on the season. We expect them to continue finishing in front of goal, and their defense should handle the Brighton attackers with ease. Expected Result: 2-1 Watford |
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08-25-17 | Rockies v. Braves -113 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Atlanta Braves (960) as they take on Colorado in MLB action set to start at 7:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 45-19 hitting 70% winners and has made 26.4 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (COLORADO) - after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Braves. |
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08-24-17 | Panthers v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Jacksonville (254) as they take on Carolina in NFLX action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will win this game. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following situation has gone 25-7 hitting 78% winners and has made 17.3 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play on any team off a home loss. And is now facing an opponent off a road loss. Additional Data sets reinforcing this NFLX play on JAX Carolina is just 2-17 ATS (-16.7 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points. JAX is a solid 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Jacksonville Jaguars. |
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08-23-17 | Rangers +147 v. Angels | Top | 7-5 | Win | 147 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Texas Rangers (973) as they take on the Los Angeles Angels in AL action set to start at 10:05 PM ET. Using the alternative Run Line often times can provide a very good opportunity for DOG plays. In this case we have the Rangers on the road and installed as modest +135 dogs. The Run Line is currently at + 1 ½ -170. The Alternative Run Line is a wager that Texas to win this game by two or more runs. When this line is published later today, it is expected to be about +230 to +250. So, if you have that line and level, the recommended strategy would be to create a combination wager consisting of a 5.5* amount using the money line and a 1.5* amount using the Alternative Run Line. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations reinforce the this play on Texas. Texas is 71-51 (+28.3 Units) against the money line facing a team with a solid bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.250 or better in games played over the last two seasons. Take Texas. |
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08-21-17 | Rangers +136 v. Angels | Top | 5-3 | Win | 136 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Texas Rangers (965) as they take on the Los Angeles Angels in AL action set to start at 10:05 PM ET. Using the alternative Run Line often times can provide a very good opportunity for DOG plays. In this case we have the Rangers on the road and installed as modest dogs. The Rune Line is currently at + 1 ½ -155. The Alternative Run Line would be for Texas to win this game by two or more runs and when available, the line is expected to be about +200 to +220. So, if you have that line and level, the recommended strategy would be to create a combination wager consisting of a 5.5* amount using the money line and a 1.5* amount using the Alternative Run Line. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 53-27 hitting 66.2% winners and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2013. The system has also averaged an impressive . Play on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher. Team is batting .265 or lower for the season. Facing an AL starting pitcher posting an ERA 3.50 on the season.
This situation has gone 24-14 making 14.5 units over the past 3 seasons.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas starter Cole Hamels is 15-1 (+14.0 Units) facing AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season in games played over the last two seasons. Hamels is a solid 14-2 (+11.9 Units) facing an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season in games played the last two seasons. Hamels is a solid 27-8 (+19.7 Units) when facing teams that strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season in games played over the last two seasons.
Take Texas. |
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08-19-17 | Patriots v. Texans | Top | 23-27 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on New England Patriots (419) as they take on Houston in NFLX action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Upon occasion, there are times to add different wagering lies to create a combination wager that serves to reduce overall risk and enhance total rate of return. With the current line at pick-em and Houston favored by 1 point, there is no opportunity for that combination wager. So, simply wager a 7* amount on new England.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 25-5 ATS hitting 83.3% winners and has made 19,5 units/unit wagered since 2013. All of the data situations are specific to NFLX games only. Play on any team. The team is off off a home loss. Facing an opponent off a road loss. If we add that the team is playing on the road the results improve to 23-4 ATS for 85.2% ATS. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. New England is a solid 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards. New England is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Take New England.. |
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08-18-17 | Blue Jays v. Cubs -167 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Cubs as they take on in MLB action set to start at 2:20 PM ET. The recommended wager is a straight 7* amount using the money line. If you do have access to a -2 ½ run line, you may want to consider a combination wager consisting of a 5.5* amount using the money line and a 1.5* amount using the -2 ½ run line. The -2 ½ run line is currently in the +190 to +200 level and offers a very solid opportunity.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 64-24 hitting 73% winners and has made 34 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on any team. Off a loss to a division rival. Installed as a favorite of -150 or higher. The team has a win percentage between 51% to 54%. Facing an opponent with a win percentage between 46% to 49%. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cubs starter Arrieta is an outstanding 31-5 (+22.2 Units) against the money line after giving up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings over the last three seasons. Toronto starter Happ is just 1-4 in 6 career starts against Cubs with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.935 WHIP. Cubs are batting 0.277 and scoring 5.9 RPG when facing a left-handed starter this season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Cubs. |
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08-15-17 | Cardinals v. Red Sox -150 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Boston (978) as they take on St. Louis in MLB action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. This is a straight 7* amount using the money line. Run Line does little to add any value or reduce risk to creating combination wager.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics Jackie Bradley, Jr is coming off a game where he had no hits in a make-up game against Cleveland where the Red Sox lost 7-3. The Red Sox remain at home for the next five games with two against the Cardinals starting tonight and three more to finish out the week against the Yankees. The following grid shows what the Red Sox have done following a game where one of their key players was hitless in the game before. Remember that this is just one of many data sets that underscore the strength and quality of this wager opportunity. The Red Sox have gone 14-2 with an average line of -175 making 11.06 units/unit wagered in games following one where Bradley, Jr. had no hits and at least 2 AB. The ROI is 52% for these results. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 34-12 hitting 74% winners and has made 23.5 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on home teams. Team is scoring between 4.4 to 4.9 runs/game. Facing an NL starter with an ERA of 3.70 or less.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Red Sox. |
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08-14-17 | Braves v. Rockies -131 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Colorado (906) as they take on Atlanta in MLB action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. Not a validated situation to employ a combination wager for this game. Simply, wager a straight 7* play using the money line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following query has produced games that are hitting 75%winners and have made 6.10 units/unit wagered since the start of the 2013 season. The system has also averaged an a -159 favorite. Game takes place after the All-Star break. Team has lost 4 or 5 of the last 5 games. Team is listed as a home favorite. Team has lost the two previous road games. This game is Game 1 of a series. Team has a winning record.
This query has produced a solid 17.1% ROI over the last 5 seasons. There have been two plays, both winning in 2017. Keep in mind that is just one query of many supporting ones and serves only to reinforce your understanding of why this is a strong wager opportunity. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Colorado is a solid 33-17 (+17.2 Units) against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) this season. Colorado’s record in Bettis starts are a solid 20-6 (+15.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Colorado’s record in Bettis starts are 21-10 (+14.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rockies. |
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08-13-17 | Astros -138 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Houston as they take on Texas in MLB action set to start at 3:05 PM ET. Houston is a road favorite at -135 currently. So, simply wager a 7* play using the money line. Although, we do have significant evidence suggesting that Houston will win this game by more than 1 runs, there is no supporting reasons to create a combination wager. So, the recommended play is a 7* amount using the money line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics Altuve was hitless in yesterday’s 8-3 loss at Texas. Houston has also lost five straight games and there is a bit of urgency to get a win today at Texas. The following table shows the results following a game where Altuve was hitless. This is ONLY one data query of numerous that support the play on Houston today. As you can see from the table, the Astros are 4-1 SU and 4-1 against the Run Line following a game where Altuve was hitless.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston starter Keuchel’s team record is a solid 11-2 (+13.8 Units) against the money line facing an AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season. Houston is 42-21 (+15.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Houston is 29-9 (+18.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. Houston is 8-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a game where they had 4 or less hits over the last 2 seasons.
Regarding the last data set that is 8-0, the SU margin of victory was at least 2 runs in all but one game. |
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08-12-17 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Rams (276) as they take on the Cowboys in NFLX action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game. With the Rams at +3 points and a money line of +130, the combination wager is a valid alternative to the straight 7* line wager. The combination wager would consist of a 5* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive . The following game situations align with the data projections and statistical research for the outcome of this game. These data points are for NFLX results only. Dallas is 1-12 against the money line (-12.0 Units) in road games when they allow 100 to 125 rushing yards. Dallas is 2-17 against the money line (-20.9 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards. Dallas is 6-19 against the money line (-17.4 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50 or fewer yards.
Additional Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rams.
The news of Elliott being suspended by the NFL for a shocking 6 weeks reinforces how positively incompetent Goodell is as a commissioner of the NFL. I personally think, if he owned a funeral parlor, nobody would die. So, of course this will be appealed with the 3-day window and more than likely reduced to 4 games. No matter the result, it will impact the game plan for this NFLX game. In other words, Elliott will not see extensive playing time since he is not play the first 6 weeks of the season. It would serve no purpose and would only be taking a huge chance of getting him hurt.
New coach, Sean McVey is teaching a new and far more exciting offense to this year’s Rams team. The TE position will see a lot more targets than last year and now with Sammy Watkins arriving via trade, Ram fans have reason to expect significant improvements. After McVey was hired, they landed TE Gerald Everett with their first round pick. So, the bottom line is that defenses will no longer game plan to shut down the Rams running game featuring Gurley. Instead, they will be forced to respect the pass and this will open up running lanes. New coaches of teams that had losing records the previous season, want to make a positive impression in the preseason and get the fans excited for a successful season.
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08-11-17 | Reds v. Brewers -183 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -183 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Milwaukee Brewers as they take on in MLB action set to start at PM ET. Currently, the run lie is at +111 and this is an attractive level to consider a combination wager. That wager would be a 5* play using the money line and a 2* play using the run line. The 2* run line portion reduces the overall risk by a 1.22* amount (difference between -150 and +111 = 0.61*2=1.22). Now, the approximate probability that Milwaukee wins this game by more than 1 runs is 47%. Our work shows a much higher 58% probability that they will win by more than 1 run. So, you can see that by adding the 2* run line play, we are reducing risk without impacting the the total rate of return of the wager.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics The following grid is the exact pitch data from Bailey’s last start and demonstrates the depth of our team research and database development. LWTS is an abbreviation for linear weighted outcomes by inning pitched in Bailey’s last start against St. Louis. The data shows that Bailey struggled mightily, especially in the 2nd and 4th innings where the LW stat reached very high levels. Breaking the data down by pitch, his fastball had a LWTS of 3.10 and reflects that pitch offering becoming batted balls in play. The SNIP (strikes not in play) was 46% and reflects the inability for Bailey to locate the fastball anywhere close to the strike zone. Bailey has an above average slider, but the Cardinals approach was clearly to sit on that pitch. He threw the slider 16 times, with Cardinal batters swinging 9 times and producing 5 base hits. Unfortunately, for Bailey, the inability to command and locate his fastball is the dominant reason he is 3-6 with an 8.86 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP this season. In two August starts, Bailey has posted a 10.61 ERA with 6 BB and 6 Ks in just 9 ⅓ innings of work. The two opponents have hit 0.368.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Brewers. |
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08-10-17 | Angels v. Mariners -171 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -171 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Seattle (918) as they take on the Los Angeles Angels in MLB action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. Recommended play is a straight 7* wager using the Money Line. The Run Line is currently at +105 and offers minimal value to creating a combination wager.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 117-27 hitting 81% winners and has made 59 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250. Team with a poor slugging percentage of 0.410 or less. Facing a very good AL starting pitcher posting a WHIP of 1.300 or less. With a starting pitcher that allows 0.5 or less HRs/start. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Mariners. |
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08-09-17 | Dodgers -117 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the LA Dodgers (959) as they take on Arizona in MLB action set to start at 9:40 PM ET. The Run Line is borderline for level needed to validate the worthiness of a combination wager. The Run Line needs to be paying at least 135 to make sense for the combination wager that would be created with a 5* play on the money Line and a 2* play using the Run Line. If you can not get a minimum of +135 on your Run Line, then simply make this a straight 7* play using the money line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 41-11 hitting 79% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play on all NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher. Allowing 3.5 or less runs/game on the season. Facing a top level team that is outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dodgers are 42-13 (+22.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. Arizona is just 8-19 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in home games facing power teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. Dodgers are 47-12 (+27.9 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Fundamental and Methodology Discussion Points Dodgers had a rare loss last night with Arizona hitting a grand slam late in the game to take the lead. Interesting that previous to that grand slam, Arizona had not hit a homerun in their previous three games and were the only team in MLB not to have one over that span. That minor stat did have a lot do with NOT having a play on the Dodgers last night. The Dodgers pitching and defense is by far the best in MLB. Over the last 7 games, opponents are batting 0.203 with a paltry 0.254 OBP and scoring just 2.4 RPG. Arizona is batting just 0.218 with a 0.298 OBP and scoring 4.0 RPG over their last 7 games. What is really alarming is that they have allowed opponents to average 5.4 RPG over their last 7 games. Arizona is battig 0.277 and scoring 5.8 RPG in 54 home games this season. However, they have hit just 0.249 and scored 4.6 RPG against LH starters. They face a very good LH starter tonight in Wood and we think he will dominate in this start.
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dodgers. |
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08-08-17 | Astros v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 135 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Chicago White Sox as they take on Houston in MLB action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. We also like making this a combination wager using a 5* play on the RL and a 2* play using the inflated money line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, the CWS are today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 43-16 hitting 73% winners and has made 38 units/unit wagered since 1997. The system has also averaged a 126 DOG wager. Play on AL home teams. Team with a below average OBP of .320 or less. Facing a very good starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. CWS are a stout 15-4 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in home games after 6 or more consecutive losses.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the CWS. |
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08-06-17 | Tigers v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 101 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
7* graded play ‘OVER’ Detroit-Baltimore (918) in MLB action set to start at 1:35 PM ET. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics Detroit is 6-1 over their last 7 games, but are batting 0.257, which is nearly equal to their season batting average of 0.259. So, the winning is being accomplished through superior pitching. However, this recent trend is just not sustainable and this is a matchup where one of these teams may score 8 or more runs on their own merit. Detroit has allowed a poor 5.0 RPG for the season and a 0.269 opponent batting average. Over the last 7 games they have allowed just 3.0 RPG and an opponent batting average of 0.235. This game between recent and season-long data sets up the situation where the data projects a very high scoring game. Further, Detroit’s bullpen is pathetic posting a 6.44 ERA and a 1.582 WHIP in 56 road games. Sanchez is 2-2 and 5-0 ‘over’ in 5 career starts against Baltimore with a 5.85 ERA and a 1.553 WHIP. Jimenez is 6-12 in 22 career starts against baltimore with a poor 5.85 ERA and a 1.553 WHIP. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 40-14 hitting 74% winners and has made 25.3 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play ‘Over’ with a AL road team. With a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season. Facing an AL starting pitcher posting an ERA of 6.20 and higher. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Sanchez is a solid 26-10 OVER (+15.9 Units) facing teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. Sanchez is 10-2 OVER (+8.1 Units) vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 27-10 OVER (+16.5 Units) in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.90 or worse since 1997. Detroit is 19-5 OVER (+13.2 Units) after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span over the last 2 seasons. Sanchez is 20-7 OVER (+12.8 Units) when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. |
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08-06-17 | Padres v. Pirates -174 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
7* graded play on Pittsburgh (906) as they take on San Diego in MLB action set to start at 1:35 PM ET. Recommended Wagering Strategy Given that Pittsburgh is around a -180 favorite, the combination wager becomes a valid alternative to a straight 7* wager. The Run Line is currently at +115. So, consider a 4.5* amount using the money line and a 2.5* amount using the Run Line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 41-15 hitting 73% winners and has made 26 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play on any NL team. Average offensive team scoring 4.0 to 4.5 runs/game. Facing a below average starter posting an ERA between 5.20 to 5.70. And with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Pirates. |
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08-05-17 | Blue Jays v. Astros -171 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -171 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
7* graded play on Houston (970) as they take on Toronto in MLB action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 65-34 (+19.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Houston is 41-18 (+18.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Houston is 54-24 (+23.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
Houston had lost 5 of their last six games until last night’s 16-run barrage and blowout win over Toronto. We are on houston again, today. This pattern of a top-5 MLB team having gone through a losing period is akin to stock market corrections and price retracements. So, Houston surged and distanced themselves from all other divisional opponents and have steadily competed with the Dodgers for the top record in MLB. The recent losing ways are nothing more than a retracement of those summation of wins. If we chart win percentage, he Fibonacci series often times provides an area where we will expect the win percentage to resume rising over time. Based on this analytic alone, Houston is at that inflexion point and we see them winning far more games than losing over the next month.
Houston starter Charlie Morton started at Toronto on July 7 and went 6 IP allowing just 4 hits and 1 ER (home run). We expect another solid performance and a quality start at minimum from Morton tonight. Take Houston. |
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08-04-17 | Blue Jays v. Astros -162 | Top | 7-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Houston Astros (922) as they take on Toronto Blue Jays in MLB action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. Recommended Wagering Strategies This game opened at Houston favored at -190 and the line has steadily declined to the -160/-165 area. The current line of -160 is very attractive and if you can get that line or possibly in the 150’s, then place a 7* amount at these levels. The combination wager, which would be a 5* play using the money line and a 2* play using the Money Line does not have as favorable a risk-reward profile as placing a 7* straight money line wager. If you have access to the -2 ½ Run Line, then consider placing an extra 2* amount on that line for a total of 9* amount of risk. This line is anticipated to be around +165. For our record keeping, we will be using a straight 7* money line wager.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 108-32 hitting 77% winners and has made 59 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play against road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher. With a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games. Facing a starting pitcher posting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is 65-33 (+21.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Toronto is just 18-31 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Houston is a solid 54-24 (+23.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Houston Astros. |
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08-02-17 | Diamondbacks +151 v. Cubs | Top | 3-0 | Win | 151 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
7* graded play on Arizona (907) as they take on the Chicago Cubs in MLB action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Arizona is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona starter Godley is a solid 19-10 (+11.4 Units) against the money line facing teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Chicago Cubs are just 11-17 (-16.1 Units) against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season. Cubs are a money burning 10-14 (-12.3 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season. Cubs are an imperfect 0-6 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Arizona Diamondbacks. |
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08-01-17 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +213 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Chicago White Sox (972) as they take on the Toronto Blue Jays in MLB action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. How to Play: The recommended play is to use a combination wager consisting of a 4.5* amount on the money line +180 and a 2.5* play using the Run Line, which is currently at + 1 ½ +115 vig. Playing it as a straight 7* amount using the money line is perfectly fine to execute too.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 82-91 hitting 47% winners and has made 56.6 units/unit wagered since 2013. This system has averaged a very impressive +180 DOG play. Play on all dogs of +150 and higher. Team season batting average of less than 0.265. Team is batting 0.240 or worse over their last 20 games. Facing a solid AL starting pitcher with a 4.20 ERA or lower. Discussion Points This dog may seem to have no chance to win this game and of course the CWS may lose this game. However, our strategy is always focused on the long-term and we know that playing these types of large dogs will pay-off over the course of the season. Whether any play wins or loses or a day ends up a big winner or a real clunker, those results will never impact the decision making for the next day. “Turn the page” is one of my favorite coaching tools for every baseball team I have ever been associated with and it applies to my business practices as well.
Toronto is an imperfect 0-6 against the run line (-8.3 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start this season. Toronto is a near-imperfect 1-11 against the run line (-11.6 Units) when playing with a day off this season. Stroman is 0-7 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Stroman is 0-7 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 13-20 (-13.9 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
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07-30-17 | Mets v. Mariners -226 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
7* graded play on Seattle (980) as they take on the NY Mets in MLB action set to start at 4:10 PM ET. How to Play: The recommended play is to use a combination wager consisting of a 5* amount on the money line and a 2* play using the Run Line, which is currently at -105 vig.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 185-60 hitting 76% winners and has made 76 units/unit wagered since 2013. Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (SEATTLE) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, starting a pitcher who walked |
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07-29-17 | Giants v. Dodgers -265 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Dodgers (902) as they take on San Francisco Giants in National League MLB action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. How to play this game To reduce risk and optimize the ROI, the recommended wager strategy is to place a 4* amount on the money line and a 3* amount on the Run Line. The RL is currently at -135, which reduces a large piece of the wager loss potential. Money line is -265 so a Dime play loses $2650, while the combination wager has a max loss of $1465. The probability is greater than 63% that the Dodgers win this game by more than 2 runs and a 85% probability that the margin of a Dodger victory will NOT be by 1 run. This may appear confusing at first. The first prediction is based on the game and that includes scenarios where the Giants can pull of the unexpected upset. The second prediction is ONLY if the Dodgers win. So, by using the combination wager, we have reduced the total risk exposure by $995.00 without a significant change in profit optimization.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive . The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are just 11-28 (-17.7 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. Giants are 7-23 (-14.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Giants are 3-13 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. Giants are an imperfect 0-8 against the run line (-10.8 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team winning 62%) or more of their games this season.
Fundamental Game Discussion Points As I had mentioned a few days ago, when the Dodgers had announced that Kershaw and McCarthy went on the 10-day DL, the Dodgers offense has come to life and is more than offsetting the loss of these two starters. The Dodgers have scored 6 runs exact on their last four games and had scored 6 or more runs in just one game between July 23 and July 16. This has not been a shocking prediction as the Dodgers offense is already quite good and will only get better.
Seager leads the Majors in Home Run percentage and all of the starters rank above the average starter at their position. As a team, they rank 3rd in the NL in runs scored, 3rd in doubles, 4th in home runs, and first in walks. The Dodger offense is a constant threat in any inning against any pitching staff and we continue to believe the offense will continue to score runs above their season average. |
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07-28-17 | Astros v. Tigers +141 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
7* graded play on Detroit (972) as they take on Houston (971) in MLB action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Detroit is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics. Now, let’s take a closer look at the supporting Black Jack system. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 51-21 hitting 71% winners and has made 35 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play against road teams. With a hot starting pitcher sporting a WHIP of 1.100 or lower over his last 10 games. After a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs. This system is a perfect 3-0 making 3.2 units and 29-13 making 19.2 units over the last three seasons. The spreadsheet below shows the results for when the Houston Astros lost a game by at least 8 runs, used four pitchers, and playing on the road since 2013. The ROI for this query has produced a very nice 21%.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Detroit Tigers. |
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07-26-17 | Brewers +116 v. Nationals | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
7* graded play on Milwaukee as they take on Washington in MLB action set to start at PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Milwaukee is today’s edition of the ‘Upset Alert’ Titan. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit even 50%, for example, our cash balances will grow steadily throughout the season.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 43-26 hitting 62% winners and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2013. The system has also averaged an impressive 146 dog play. Play against NL home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher. Home team has a starting pitcher with an ERA is 3.70 or better on the season. With a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season.
Key Situations Brewers are 31-18 (+21.3 Units) against the money line after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Brewers are 18-7 (+17.5 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Nationals are just 3-8 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Milwaukee Brewers. |
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07-25-17 | Twins v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 120 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) using the Run Line as they take on Minnesota in MLB action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. Recommended Wagering Strategy The current money line is about -175 with some books at -171 and others higher at -178. The Run line is currently at -1.5 +125. So, a combination of these two lines offers an way to optimize the ROI and minimize the risk. This ROI optimization is not beneficial to the user for just one game, however, if it is adopted over the course of the season it will add more profits. So, for this play, the combination wager is optimized ONLY if you have access to the -2 ½ Run Line, which we anticipate to be lined at + 180. If the -2 ½ is not available, then simply wager a 7* amount on the Run Line. If the -2 ½ run line is available, then wager a 4.5* amount using the Run Line and a 2.5* amount using the -2 ½ Run Line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics Despite losing Clayton Kershaw for 4 to 6 weeks and Brandon McCarthy (blister), the Dodgers are in position to maintain at least ‘500’ ball over the next few weeks. More on this a bit later in the report.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Twins are just 25-44 against the run line losing 30.4 Units when facing a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 2 seasons. Dodgers are a solid 42-22 against the run line making 18.7 Units facing an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. Dodger starter Maeda is a perfect 6-0 against the run line making 6.7 Units in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
Team Discussion Points Dodgers have the offense to offset the loss of Kershaw and McCarthy. They are currently batting 0.271 with a 0.351 OBP and 0.830 OPS over their last seven games. Minnesota does not have near the fire-power batting 0.254 with a 0.327 and 0.723 OPS over their last seven games. The biggest advantage for the Dodgers is their bullpen. The relief boys have produced a 2.92 ERA with a 1.082 WHIP allowing just 96 walks while striking out 371 batters. In 54 home games they have been even better with a 2.32 ERA and a 0.982 WHIP allowing 52 walks and recording 199 K’s spanning 186 innings of work. The bullpen is also 12-2 in home games. Twins bullpen is largely inconsistent posting a 4.69 ERA with a 1.446 WHIP allowing 121 walks and recording 273 Ks spanning 343 ⅔ innings of work. Between the offense and the bullpen, the Dodgers will be nearly always competitive in every game played moving forward. The following list of games show that the Dodgers are 7-3 in games played in 2017 where they were in a tied game through six innings. This is not all that relevant for a single game, but does reflect how strong the bullpen has been this season. I rarely state subjective opinions in these reports, but the The ‘Next Man Up’ motto will be apparent for this Dodgers team moving forward. |
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07-23-17 | Brewers v. Phillies -111 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
7* graded play on Philadelphia (904) as they take on Milwaukee in MLB action set to start at 1:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics Milwaukee was the leader in the NL Central at the break, but have since lost 6 of 9 games including a four-game losing sweep at Pittsburgh. The Brewers remain the leaders, but the Cubs are just 1-game behind and Pittsburgh has surged to being just 3-games behind. Milwaukee leads the majors in offensive strikeouts and this has been a big reason for their losing ways. Since the Break, the Brewers have had a minimum of 9 K’s per game and 8 straight games with 10 or more. Until, they exercise discipline and reduce the number of swings on balls outside the strike zone, this trend will continue indefinitely. Phillies starter Eickhoff had a solid 2016 season with several KPI in the NL top-10 list. However, he has struggled in 2017 with a 1-7 record and 4.83 ERA. In 3 years of professional service, he has posted a solid 3.80 ERA and averaging 8 K’s per start. Eikhoff is showing significant signs of returning to that 2016 form. Over his last two starts he has recorded 30 strikes looking and 24 strikes swinging and missing. Milwaukee’s free-swinging batters will be to his liking this afternoon.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has produced a 45-19 record hitting 70% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on all NL teams (home and away). Money line is +125 to -125. With a starting pitcher winning less than 30% of his starts. Facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Always note when the situation reflects the power of the dog in units won and not win percentage. Phillies are a solid 37-28 (+19.4 Units) against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Phillies. |
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07-22-17 | Braves v. Dodgers -230 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
7* graded play on Dodgers as they take on the Braves in MLB action set to start at 9:10 PM ET. Recommended Wagering Strategy Given the large amount of wood needed to be paid on the Dodgers, a combination wager is the preferred strategy to offset risk and maintain a strong risk-reward profile. The combination wager is in two parts consisting of a 4.5* play on the Run Line and a 2.5* play on the money line. An alternative strategy is to use the - 2 ½ run line. This strategy is in three parts with a 4* play on the Run Line, a 2* play on the money line and a 1* play using the -2 ½ Run Line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dodgers are a solid 41-20 against the run line (+20.6 Units) facing an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. Dodgers are 49-12 (+29.9 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. Tehran is 9-24 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. Dodgers are 37-11 (+20.4 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
Player Focus Admittedly, this is just a single piece of anecdotal evidence that does support the Dodgers, but it may reflect a reason to put Corey Seager on your daily fantasy team today. Seager was hitless in last night’s loss. The Dodgers are 28-7 following a game where Seager had no hits since being called up in September 2015. So, far this season, Seager has had 13 hitless games and the Dodgers are 11-2 in the next game for strong 31% ROI. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dodgers. |
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07-22-17 | Cardinals +145 v. Cubs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
7* graded play on St. Louis as they take on the Chicago Cubs in MLB action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, St. Louis is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and advanced analytics. Now, let’s examine the game situations that qualify for the ‘Black Jack’ system. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 83-34 hitting 71% winners and has made 57 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against NL home teams. With a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season. Following a game where the bullpen was hammered for 6 or more earned runs.
Arrieta pitched well, but the bullpen put in a horrific performance. The Cubs bullpen issued 8 walks and 9 earned runs. Carl Edwards entered the game to start the 7th inning and did not record an out issuing 2 walks, and allowing 3 ER. Next, Rondon entered and he too, did not record an out issuing 2 walks and allowing 4 ER. The Cubs had a 3-2 lead in the top of the 7th inning and allowed NINE earned runs.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Cardinals.
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07-21-17 | Red Sox v. Angels +184 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Angels (926) as they take on Boston in AL action set to start at 10:07 PM ET. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, the Angels are today’s edition of the ‘Upset Alert’ DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 52%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of supporting systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 38-26 hitting 59% winners and has made 38.4 units/unit wagered since 2013. The system has also averaged an impressive 170 DOG.
Play on all AL underdogs. Money line of +150 or more. Team slugging percentage . of 410 or worse on the season. After a win by 6 runs or more.
For the 2017 season, the system by itself has gone 4-4 and made an impressive 3.3 units in profits. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Angels and look for the upset. |
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07-20-17 | Padres +173 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 173 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
7* graded play on San Diego as they take on San Francisco in MLB action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, San Diego is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 52%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following ‘Black Jack’ system has gone 37-34 hitting just 52% winners, but has made 41.1 units/unit wagered since 2013. The system has also averaged an impressive +203 DOG. Play on road underdogs. Money line of +175 to +250. Team has a terrible OBP of .300 or less. Facing a very good NL starting pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.250. With an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is a solid 13-6 (+12.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season. San Francisco is just 12-27 (-19.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. San Francisco is just 9-26 (-22.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board San Diego. |
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07-18-17 | Cubs -106 v. Braves | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Chicago Cubs (959) as they take on the Atlanta Braves in NL MLB action set to start at 7:35 PM ET. How to Play One of the dominant keys to profitability is being able to combine and optimize the money line, run line, alternate run lines, and the -2 1.2 run lines. For this game, we recommend a 5* amount using the money line and a 2* amount using the Run Line, which is currently trading at -1.5 +110. If you have access to the -2 ½ Run Line, then consider making a 4.5* amount using the money line, 1.5* amount using the Run Line and a 1* amount using the -2 ½ Run Line. The -2 ½ Run Line is expected to open at around +160/+165. So, if you are playing $100 per ‘*’ unit, the wager is $450 on the money line, $150 on the Run Line, and $100 using the -2 ½ Run Line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 60-15 hitting 80% winners and has made 35.7 units/unit wagered since 2013. The system has also averaged an impressive . Play against home underdogs. Money Line of +125 or more. Overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. Starting pitcher sporting a WHIP of 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. Fundamental Matchups Braves starter Sean Newcomb has been hammered in his last two starts allowing 11 ER, 14 hits, 6 BB, and 9 Ks spanning 7 ⅔ innings of work. His WHIP is a horrifying 2.61 over those last two starts. His third last start was a quality start completing 6 innings and allowing zero earned runs, but it was against the hapless hitting Padres. He is basically a two pitch (FB/Curve) starter with a 93-94 fastball and a78-80 MPH curveball. The following grid shows his pitch stats for his last start. SNIP is strikes Not In Play and do not include any balls in play.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Cubs.
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07-17-17 | Cubs -154 v. Braves | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Cubs (909) as they take on the Braves in MLB action set to start at 7:35 PM ET. Recommended Wagering Strategy In situations like this one, we like making these 7* wagers combination wagers that are designed to optimize the ROI for the opportunity. In this game, consider making a 5* play using the Money Line and a 2* play using the Run Line. The current Run Line is - 1 ½ + 110 and offers a more efficient way to reduce overall risk and increase total return of the 7* amount.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 125-54 hitting 70% winners and has made 53.6 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on all NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and with that starting pitcher struggling over his last 3 starts posting an ERA of 7.50 and higher. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta starter Tehran is just 6-19 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Tehran is a money burning 6-21 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. Tehran is a near imperfect 1-9 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in home games after giving up 2 or fewer earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. Lester has posted a 2.14 ERA and a 1.166 WHIP against the Braves.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Cubs. |
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07-16-17 | Nationals v. Reds +107 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
7* graded play on Cincinnati ((52) as they take on Washington in MLB action set to start at 1:10 PM ET. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 143-73 hitting 66.2% winners and has made 60 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play against NL road teams (WASHINGTON) with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season. Here is a second system that has produced 35.8 units/unit wagered playing against NL road teams (WASHINGTON) with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season, hot hitting team batting .280 or better over their last 20 games. Here is a third system that has made 23.3 units with a 31015 record good for 67% winners since 1997. Play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (WASHINGTON) with a cold starting pitcher posting a WHIP of 2.000 or higher over his last 5 starts, with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington is just 15-21 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in day games this season. Reds are a solid 20-13 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Reds. |
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07-14-17 | BC -3 v. Hamilton | Top | 41-26 | Win | 100 | 84 h 16 m | Show |
7* graded play on British Columbia (377) as they take on Hamilton in CFL action set to start Saturday at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BC will win this game by at least 7 points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following system has gone 37-8 ATS hitting 80.4% winners and has made 27.1 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 and are off a non-conference game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BC is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. BC is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games in games where they outgain their opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play. Hamilton is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Hamilton is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games where they allow 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt. Hamilton is a near imperfect 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards in a game over the last 3 seasons. Hamilton is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games in games where they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board BC.
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07-13-17 | Toronto +3 v. Winnipeg | Top | 25-33 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 46 m | Show |
7* graded play on Toronto Argonauts (371) as they take on Winnipeg in CFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game. How to Play Given that Toronto is a 3-point dog, we highly recommend making this play a combination wager consisting of a 5* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. The single requirement to validate this strategy is that the money line is +135 or higher. If the money line is not at that level, then simply wager a 7* amount on the line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points Winnipeg finds itself in a horrid game situation. They are coming off a dog win two weeks ago and now face a Toronto team that is still stinging from the loss to BC installed as a modest favorite. In this combination of variables, teams are 2-15 ATS installed as a home favorite over the past 10 years. Date Season Team Opp Site Final Line Total ATS Margin ATS Result 9-Aug-07 2007 Alouettes Stampeders home 30-18 -3 51 9 W 17-Aug-07 2007 Stampeders Lions home 45-45 -1.5 51 -1.5 L 18-Aug-07 2007 Roughriders Eskimos home 39-32 -10 50 -3 L 23-Sep-07 2007 Alouettes Eskimos home 43024 -4.5 53.5 -10.5 L 25-Jul-08 2008 Lions Alouettes home 36-34 -6 53 -4 L 1-Sep-08 2008 Tiger Cats Argonauts home 31-34 -3 54 -6 L 13-Sep-08 2008 Eskimos Tiger Cats home 38-33 -7 56 -2 L 24-Jul-09 2009 Blue Bombers Argonauts home 42874 -4 50.5 -18 L 13-Aug-09 2009 Eskimos Stampeders home 38-35 -2 59 1 W 17-Jul-10 2010 Roughriders Eskimos home 24-20 -7 58 -3 L 8-Sep-13 2013 Alouettes Argonauts home 30-37 -2.5 49.5 -9.5 L 10-Jul-15 2015 Blue Bombers Alouettes home 25-23 -2.5 53 -0.5 L 8-Aug-15 2015 Argonauts Roughriders home 30-26 -9 49 -5 L 20-Aug-15 2015 Lions Alouettes home 13-23 -2.5 48.5 -12.5 L 7-Jul-16 2016 Tiger Cats Blue Bombers home 24-28 -9 52.5 -13 L 7-Jul-16 2016 Lions Argonauts home 14-25 -6 50 -17 L 8-Jul-16 2016 Redblacks Stampeders home 26-26 -1 52.5 -1 L 13-Jul-17 2017 Blue Bombers Argonauts home -3 52.5
The following system has gone 32-8 ATS hitting 80% winners and has made 23.2 units/unit wagered since 2013.Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WINNIPEG) after gaining 6.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toronto is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Toronto. |
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07-09-17 | Tigers v. Indians -203 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -203 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
7* graded play on Cleveland (924) as they take on Detroit in MLB action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game by at least 2 runs. How to play: We suggest making this a combination wager consisting of 5.5* play using the Run Line and a 1.5* play using the Money Line. If you have access to a -2 ½ alternate line, then we like a 5* play using the Run Line and 2* play using the -2 ½ alternate Run Line. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 50-8 hitting 86% winners and has made 35 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CLEVELAND) average hitting team batting 0.265 or less and with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP of no higher than 1.100 over his last 10 games and is now facing a good AL starting pitcher posting an ERA of 4.20 or less. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is 12-25 (-14.8 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher that allows 5.5 or less hits/start this season. Detroit is 10-22 (-14.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season. Cleveland is an amazing 18-2 (+16.2 Units) against the money line after 2 straight wins by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Cleveland tonight. |
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07-09-17 | Astros +102 v. Blue Jays | Top | 19-1 | Win | 102 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
7* graded play on Houston (913) as they take on Toronto in MLB action set to start at 1:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Houston will win this game. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is 18-5 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Houston is 20-7 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Houston is 35-14 (+16.4 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. Houston is 19-3 (+14.3 Units) against the money line facing terrible speed teams averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game this season. Toronto is 6-12 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. Houston is 19-5 (+14.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Houston is 32-10 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Houston.
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07-08-17 | Orioles v. Twins -111 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
7* graded play on Minnesota (966) as they take on Baltimore in MLB action set to start at 2:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Minnesota is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Orioles are just 2-13 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season. Orioles are 9-26 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
Manny Machado had a big game last night, but is very alarming at what has occurred in the next game. Orioles are 4-13 SU for a -52% ROI in games following a game where Manny Machado had more than 1 RBI during the 2017 season.
We look at key hitters on teams that will have hitless nights and also extreme performance results mainly for the build of our fantasy data repository, which will be launched ahead of the NFL and NCAAF seasons. In this game, with Baltimore fading, it becomes even more critical and meaningful when a star player has a direct impact on the result of the game. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Minnesota. |
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07-08-17 | Astros +113 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 42 m | Show |
7* graded play on Houston as they take on Toronto in MLB action set to start at 1:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Houston will win this game. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 84-38 hitting 69% winners and has made 44 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play on road teams (HOUSTON) that are hot hitting teams batting .280 or better over their last 20 games, with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP less than 1.000 over his last 5 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is 18-5 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Houston is 20-7 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Houston is 35-14 (+16.4 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. Houston is 19-3 (+14.3 Units) against the money line facing terrible speed teams averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game this season. Toronto is 6-12 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. Houston is 19-5 (+14.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Toronto is just 1-8 (-9.7 Units) against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Houston. |
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07-07-17 | Royals v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
7* graded play on the ‘UNDER’ in the Dodgers - Kansas City (930-929) game set to start at 10:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 8 runs will be scored in this game.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics Looking at our 30-year MLB database, we know that teams that have won 13 or more of their last 16 games are 195-149-17 ‘UNDER’ producing a solid ROI of 14.3 percent since 2012. Adding in home game and home team is favored by at least -180 produces a 41-23-2 ‘UNDER’ record and a very strong 24% ROI. Add in the team filter and Dodgers and we see that they are 7-1 ‘under’ in this validated situation.
Starting pitchers in this matchup are coming off poor starts, bt here again the facts pulled out of the DB clearly support the ‘UNDER’. In games where both starters are coming off non-quality starts (a quality start is 6 IP and allowing 3 or fewer earned runs) and with a home team line of at least 180 favorite have produced a 46-29 ‘UNDER’ mark and a very nice 17.7% ROI.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is a solid 37-19 UNDER (+15.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. KC is 43-23 UNDER (+16.4 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Dodgers are 44-24 UNDER (+16.9 Units) in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘UNDER’. |
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07-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -151 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Dodgers (960) as they take on Arizona in NL MLB action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics Dodgers have been amazing during this first half of the season and are without a doubt the best team in the NL and perhaps in all of baseball. Arizona, though, is just 4 ½ games back of the Dodgers and are the second-best team in the NL.
Over the past five seasons, there have been two other occasions where a MLB team won 22 of their last 26 games as the Dodgers have done. One was in 2013 and it was the Dodgers again and the other was the Rays in 2013.
The following games show 2017 occurrences where a team won 13 or more of their last 16 games, are playing their next game at home and the line is a favorite of at least -150. These teams are 9-3 producing a 14.3% ROI. Location Team Starter Opponent Opponent Score Result O-U Result Line Total home Yankees Michael Pineda - R Orioles Ubaldo Jimenez - R 12-4 W O -175 9 home Astros Brad Peacock - R Angels Matt Shoemaker - R 4-9 L O -165 8.5 home Astros David Paulino - R Angels Jesse Chavez - R 6-12 L O -170 9.5 home Dodgers Alex Wood - L Rockies Kyle Freeland - L 6-1 W U -225 8 home Dodgers Clayton Kershaw - L Rockies Tyler Chatwood - R 4-0 W U -255 7 home Diamondbacks Randall Delgado - R Phillies Jeremy Hellickson - R 2-1 W U -174 10 home Dodgers Brandon McCarthy - R Rockies Tyler Anderson - L 12-6 W O -170 8.5 home Diamondbacks Zack Greinke - R Phillies Nick Pivetta - R 6-1 W U -240 8.5 home Dodgers Rich Hill - L Angels Ricky Nolasco - R 0-4 L U -215 9 home Dodgers Kenta Maeda - R Angels Jesse Chavez - R 4-0 W U -220 8 home Dodgers Clayton Kershaw - L Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin - L 4-3 W P -210 7 home Dodgers Alex Wood - L Diamondbacks Zack Godley - R 1-0 W U -225 7.5 home Dodgers Rich Hill - L Diamondbacks Robbie Ray - L -160 7.5 Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 39-11 hitting 78% winners and has made 25.6 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play on all NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher. Allowing 3.5 or less runs/game on the season. Against an opponent that is a top level team outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dodgers are a solid 30-10 (+17.1 Units) against the money line facig NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game this season. Dodgers are 44-12 (+21.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season. Dodgers are 32-11 (+15.4 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dodgers. |
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07-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
7* graded play ‘UNDER’ in the LA Dodgers - Arizona Diamondbacks matchup in NL MLB action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 8 runs will be scored in this game. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 40-13 hitting 76% winners and has made 76% units/unit wagered since 2013. Play ‘under’ with home teams (LA DODGERS) during the month of July having won 12 or more of their last 15 games. If we make site equal to ‘any’ then record is still quite solid at 57-21 producing a 35% ROI since 2013. If we add back the home venue and filter only Dodger games we get an amazing 12-2-1 ‘UNDER’ record good for 86% winners. Jul 08, 2013 away Dodgers Zack Greinke - R Diamondbacks Randall Delgado - R 6-1 W U -105 9 Jul 09, 2013 away Dodgers Ricky Nolasco - R Diamondbacks Ian Kennedy - R 6-1 W U 103 9 Jul 10, 2013 away Dodgers Hyun Jin Ryu - L Diamondbacks Tyler Skaggs - L 7-5 W O 100 9 Jul 11, 2013 home Dodgers Chris Capuano - L Rockies Drew Pomeranz - L 6-1 W U -160 8 Jul 12, 2013 home Dodgers Clayton Kershaw - L Rockies Juan Nicasio - R 0-3 L U -255 6.5 Jul 24, 2013 away Dodgers Ricky Nolasco - R Blue Jays Esmil Rogers - R 8-3 W O 100 9.5 Jul 25, 2013 home Dodgers Zack Greinke - R Reds Mat Latos - R 2-5 L P -118 7 Jul 26, 2013 home Dodgers Clayton Kershaw - L Reds Homer Bailey - R 2-1 W U -177 6.5 Jul 27, 2013 home Dodgers Hyun Jin Ryu - L Reds Bronson Arroyo - R 4-1 W U -125 7.5 Jul 28, 2013 home Dodgers Chris Capuano - L Reds Tony Cingrani - L 1-0 W U -102 7.5 Jul 30, 2013 home Dodgers Zack Greinke - R Yankees Andy Pettitte - L 3-2 W U -165 7 Jul 31, 2013 home Dodgers Clayton Kershaw - L Yankees Hiroki Kuroda - R 0-3 L U -180 6 Jul 01, 2017 away Dodgers Rich Hill - L Padres Dillon Overton - L 8-0 W U -210 8.5 Jul 02, 2017 away Dodgers Kenta Maeda - R Padres Jhoulys Chacin - R 3-5 L P -195 8 Jul 04, 2017 home Dodgers Clayton Kershaw - L Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin - L 4-3 W P -210 7 Jul 05, 2017 home Dodgers Alex Wood - L Diamondbacks Zack Godley - R -215 8 Jul 06, 2017 home Dodgers Rich Hill - L Diamondbacks Robbie Ray - L The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a solid 22-10 UNDER (+11.0 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. Dodgers are a solid 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) when playing against a top-level team winning at least 62% of their games this season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘UNDER’. |