Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-08-20 | Rays +125 v. Yankees | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays 7-Star AL Upset Alert on the Tampa Bay Rays Let us begin with a supporting betting system that has earned a 156-97 record good for 62% wining bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements for this betting system is to bet on all teams with the money line that is ranging between plus 125 to -125 it is an average offensive team scoring 4.4 to 4.9 runs per game on the season and has been a bit on the cold side batting 250 or lower spanning their last 20 games it is now facing a starter in the American League with an ERA between 4.7 and 5.7 on the season. So, the machine learning models project that the Rays are going to outhit the Yankees by at least three and will have at least two multiple run innings (same as last night) In games played installed as a dog the Rays are an amazing 135-6 SU for 96% wins and a 127% ROI; they are also 98-1 on the Run Line earning a 68% ROI. |
|||||||
10-07-20 | Rays +120 v. Yankees | Top | 8-4 | Win | 120 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays 7-Star AL Upset Alert on the Tampa Bay Rays Let us begin with a supporting betting system that has earned a 43-16 record good for 72% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that is lined between -130 and +130 of pick-em and has won 15 of their last 20 games and is now facing an opponent having won three exact games of their last 4 games. Tanaka is vulberable to the Tampa Bay Rays and many have had strong success when facing him. Kevin Kiermaier (12-for-39), Zunino (6-for-22) and Meadows (5-for-19) each have hit two homers against Tanaka. Right-hander Charlie Morton will start for the Rays in his first appearance since Sept. 25. While he has yet to pitch in the playoffs this year, he is no stranger to postseason pressure. He earned the win for the Astros in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series, and he is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA in nine all-time playoff appearances (eight starts). What I like most about Morton is that only 8% of baters have barreled up one of his offerings and Tananka has had 11% of his pitches barreled up on the good part of the bat. This does not look like a huge difference, but it is as a 1/16 of an inch can be the difference between a caught fly ball and a double in the gap. Tanaka is a carft-type of pitcher throwing FB just 30% of the time and using his slider 37% of the time as his dominant offering. His fdast below is a MLB-average 92 MPH complimented by an 84 MPH slider. Morton averages 94 MPH on the FB and with a lot more sinking and arm-side tailing action. He has an exceptional curve and will pitch to batters on bot sides of the plate in the sma emanner, not adjusting slider for change depending on LH or RH batter. Morton line drive percentage is a solid 24% of all pitches thrown and is vastly better than Tanaka’s 31% line drive rate. So, the machine learning models project that the Rays are going to outhit the Yankees by at least three and will have at least two multiple run innings. In games played installed as a dog the Rays are an amazing 134-6 SU for 96% wins and a 127% ROI; they are also 97-1 on the Run Line earning a 63% ROI. Take the Tampa Bay Rays. |
|||||||
10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat +8 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat Game 4 takes place in the NBA Finals and oh how the results of Game 3 have changed the look and feel of this series. The Lakers were out to a 2-0 series lead and Miami was without two of their best players in Games 2 and 3. Yet, the Heat’s strong forward, Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 19.9 points-per-game, 6.7 rebounds-per-game, and 10.2 assist-per-game for the series, found a way to lead his team to a huge Game 3 win Tuesday Night. I went on record stating on Twitter and linked to the Game 3 NBA article found here on Odds, that there was never a better time to bet aggressively on a team that was down 0-2 to the NBA Finals than right now with the Heat. Currently, the Lakers are favored by 7.5-points at all the major sportsbooks with MGM offering the Heat at +7.5 +105 vig. For the series you can get the Heat at +850 and +1100 for Jimmy Butler to win the MVP at MGM as the screenshot below shows. Why Am I So Bullish on the Heat?That is a great question and the answer consists of two parts. The first part is the fact that there has been three NBA Champions that had three different high scorers in each of the first three playoff rounds. The Miami Heat have become the fourth team and strongly believe they are a real team with a great floor general in Butler and the vastly better coaching in Spoelstra. I was completely sold when near the end of Game 3 Butler was seen saying “They know they are in trouble” repeatedly as he walked off the court toward his teammates during a timeout. A Solid Money Line Betting System Supports the HeatThis money line betting system has earned a solid 104-89 betting record good for 55% winning bets and has made the Dime player a profit of $37,200 over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on any team using the money line in a game involving two teams that are allowing opponents to shoot between 43.5 and 46% from the field, and is a good ball handling team averaging 14.5 or fewer turnovers-per-game and is facing a team that forces an average of 14 to 16 turnovers per game in games played after the 41st one has been completed and including the playoff rounds. What Does the Machine Learning Tools Tell Us?The machine learning models confirm the bet on the Heat tonight and with the win would bring this series to an even two wins apiece and reduce the Finals to a best-of-three match. The day off until Game 5 give the Heat a chance to get Goran Dragic back into the lineup. He is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game and I do not expect him top play. However, I would not be surprised to see the Heat center Bam Adebayo get some minutes tonight. So, these projections do not include either player in the game tonight just as they did for last night’s game. The Heat are projected to shoot above 45% form the field, make at least 14 3-point shots, and make more 3-point shots than the Lakers. In past games in which the Heat met or exceeded these projections they went on to earn a 59-16 straight-up record and 56-15-4 against the spread (ATS) record good for 79% winning bets since 1995 and 35-10 SU for 78% wins and 31-10-4 ATS for 77% winning bets over the last three seasons. The Lakers are a money losing 12-57 SU for 17% wins and 9-59-1 ATS for a miserable 13% winning bets that failed to cover by an average of 11.5 points since 1995 and 8-24 SU for 25% wins and 7-25 ATS for 22% winning bets that failed to cover by an average of 9 points since 2017 when they have allowed an opponent to meet or exceed those performance measures. All playoff teams that allowed their opponents to meet or exceed those performance measures are 15-64 SU for 19% wins losing by an average of 13 points and 14-63-2 ATS for 18% winning bets that failed to cover the spread by an average of 10 pints. Take the Miami Heat as a Best Bet NBA in Game 4 of the NBA Finals |
|||||||
10-06-20 | Yankees v. Rays -123 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays 7-Star AL Upset Alert on the Tampa Bay Rays Let us begin with a supporting betting system that has earned a 105-60 record good for 64% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to bet on any team that is facing a poor fielding team that has averaged 0.75 or more errors-per-game and after scoring 8 runs in three consecutive games. Rays have Tyler Glasnow on the hill and he is in solid form and superior form to his counterpart in Deivi Garcia, who posrts a 7.02 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over his last three starts spanning 16 2/3 innings of work. Glasnow has posted consistent performances over his last three starts with a 2.65 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 3-0 record including 4 BB and 26 strikeouts spanning 17 innings of work. |
|||||||
10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +136 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays 7-Star AL Upset Alert on the Tampa Bay Rays Let us begin with a supporting betting system that ahs earned a 69-53 record for 57% winning bets and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $3,385 over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on all underdogs between +110 and +165 that have won eight or more of their past 10 games and is now facing an opponent that has won two fo their last three games. In playoff games the underdogs has earned a 5-4 record making 2.25 units or $225 per $100 wager and a very nice 25% return-on-investment since 2015. Rays have Blake Snell on the hill, who has posted a 5-2 record in 12 starts with a 2.91 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 20 BB, and 72 Ks on the season. Over his last three starts he has posted a 1-1 record with a sparkling 2.16 ERA, 0.900 WHIP including 6 BB and 22 Ks spanning 16 2/3 innings of work. Bucs have owned the Yankees with an 8-2 record this season. Yankee starter Cole is a stud, no doubt, but is 2-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.092 WHIP in nine starts against the Rays I also like the fact that Snell works down in the zone and throws elite off-speed pitches to keep batters constantly off balance. He has averaged a 6.6 launch angle and 88 MPH exit velocity. This style of pitching works well against the power hitting Yankees lineup. Further, Cole’s stats look impressive, but batted balls have averaged a 17 degree launch angle and 91 MPH exit velocity. Moreover, of all batted balls in play off of Cole’s pitches, an alarming 47% have been ‘hard hit’. |
|||||||
10-05-20 | Patriots +11.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
NE Patriots vs KC Chiefs 7-Star play on the Patriots Betting against the Patriots has not paid off well while Bill Belichick has been the head coach of the Patriots. The Patriots are 13-18 straight-up (SU), but 19-12 against-the-spread (ATS) for 61.3% winning bets as an underdog of more than 3 points and less than 10 points since the 2000 season. If we add the ‘site’ parameter to this database query we learn that the Patriots are 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in home games and 11-15 SU and 15-11 ATS for 58% winning bets since 2000. Drilling into the data a bit further and using the type of surface the game is being played on reveals more supporting evidence. The Patriots are 3-5 SU and 5-1 ATS in games played on artificial turf under Belichick and installed as a 3 to 10 point underdog and 10-13 SU covering 61% of those 23 games for a 14-9 ATS record when the game is on grass. Arrowhead Stadium is a grass surface stadium. Even the month when the game is played brings to light just how good betting the Patriots under Belichick as an underdog has been for backers. The chart below shows that his best month is in October, in which the Patriots have earned a solid 65-18 SU record and covered 68% of those games ATS for a 55-26-2 record. Then the cheesecake appears. Now, that Cam has COVID-19 and will not be playing the line has made the Patriots a double-digit underdog. Belichick is 8-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in games where his Patriots team has been installed as 10 or more point underdog. 6-0 SU and ATS the last six games in this incredible stretch of games. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Eagles v. 49ers -8.5 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers Last week, on Monday Night Football, we got to see the Kansas Chiefs and their head coach and former Eagle head coach Andy Reed take offensive play-calling to a new level of creativity. Current Eagles skipper Doug Pederson used to call games in a similar creative style and at times with a whole lot more risk. Those days seem to be decades ago for the Eagle fans and without the right personnel, there is little reason to expect anything more from the Eagles on both sides of the ball. The Eagles rank 24th in the NFL gaining 1009 total offensive yards good for 334 yards-per-game. There are five teams in the NFL that have gained 1,300 total offensive yards ore more. The NFC East rival Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL gaining 1,472 total yards and averaging 491 yards-per-game. There is one category that the Eagles lead in the NFL rankings and it is not one to be admired. They have turned the ball over to the opponent 8 times and so far, have turned the ball over on 21% of their drives this season. No NFL team can win games with performance measures this bad. Here is a tremendous money line betting system that supports the 49ers and will cause even greater depression for the Eagle fans. This system has gone 27-1 for 96% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams using the money line and are a mistake-free team that are committing 0.75 or fewer turnovers-per-game and after a game earning a +2 turnover advantage and now facing an opponent with a -0.75 turnover differential. The machine learning models project that the 49ers will score at least 28 points, will gain a minimum of 6 yards-per-play, and will have fewer turnovers than the Eagles. The 49ers are 81-8 straight-up (SU), and 67-22 against-the-spread (ATS) for 75% winning bets since 1990 when scoring 28 or more bets. Further, the 49ers are a stellar 21-2 SU and 18-5 ATS for 78% winning bets in home games when they score 28 or more points and average a minimum of 6.0 yards-per-play. Last, they are a 17-0 SU and 15-2 ATS for 88% wining bets when they have met or exceeded the projected all three of the performance measures. Take the San Francisco 49ers as a Best Bet NFL Pick.
|
|||||||
10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat +9.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Miami Heat vs LA Lakers 8:30 PM EST, October 4, 2020 7-Star Best Bet on the Miami Heat In the history of the playoffs a team that had a different high-scorer in each of the last three playoff rounds are 3-0 in the Championship Finals. The Heat accomplished that feat and if there was ever a time to roll the dice and get an incredibly great price for futures prop in the NBA Finals it would be right now. I love the Heat on a futures bet to win the Finals. Yes, it is a long shot, but we are getting paid to assume that risk and one that I doi think is quite possible. The machine learning reveals that the Heat are 134-17 SU and 120-27-4 ATS 82% when they score at least 107 points and shoot at least 45% from the field and will make more 3-point shots than the opponent. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Bills v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders 7-Star Best bet on the Raiders 3-Star Reverse action parlay using the Raiders and the ‘UNDER’ Here is a simple to use betting system that has made a ton of dough over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to be on underdsogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a home win during the first four weeks of the season. Supporting the ‘UNDER’ is a system that has earned a 24-5 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 83% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are bet the ‘UNDER’ with any team in game with a posted total of 49 or more points after one or more straight losses and is facing an opponent on a three-game or more win streak. The machine learning tools project that the Raiders will gain at least 7 yards-per-pass play and score between 22 or more points. When they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 13-8 SU record and 17-4 ATS mark good for 81% winning bets that covered by an average of 7 points. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Bills v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders 7-Star Best bet on the Raiders 3-Star Reverse action parlay using the Raiders and the ‘UNDER’ Here is a simple to use betting system that has made a ton of dough over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to be on underdsogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a home win during the first four weeks of the season. Supporting the ‘UNDER’ is a system that has earned a 24-5 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 83% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are bet the ‘UNDER’ with any team in game with a posted total of 49 or more points after one or more straight losses and is facing an opponent on a three-game or more win streak. The machine learning tools project that the Raiders will gain at least 7 yards-per-pass play and score between 22 or more points. When they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 13-8 SU record and 17-4 ATS mark good for 81% winning bets that covered by an average of 7 points. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Vikings +3.5 v. Texans | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans 7-Star graded play on the Minnesota Vikings Both teams are 0-3 and they both know that only four teams have ever made the playoffs after an 0-3 start and none after an 0-4 start. This betting system supports the Vikings and has earned a 28-7 ARTS mark good for 82% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are to bet on road teams that are coming off a home cover ATS, but lost the game SU and has not won a game on the season. This system works against the Texans and has earned a 42-16 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after they posted two consecutive games in which their defense forced zero turnovers. The machine learning models project that the Vikings will score between 24 and 30 points and will pass for a minimum of 225 yards. In past games in which the Vikings met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a solid 13-4 SU and ATS record good for 76% wining bets over the last five seasons. In the same manner, the Texans are 2-7 SU and ATS when they have allowed these measures to an opponent since 2016. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 15 m | Show |
Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys 7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys could have been 0-3 on the season had it not been for an incredible comeback on the road against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2. It can be reasoned too, that they might have been 3-0 if a few breaks had gone there way. The one certainty is the Cowboys offense is quite good and will be difficult for any defense to contain this season. The Cowboys have tallied 1,472 yards or 490 yards-per-game and ranks best in the NFL by 100 total yards over the second-best Green Bay Packers. While it is unlikely that the Cowboys will be able to maintain a near-500 yards-per-game offense, they will have few games in which they will not gain a minimum of 375 offensive yards. Despite all the yards gained they have scored 88 points that place them 8th in scoring offense. Turnovers at critical points in scoring drives have been a problem for the Cowboys, but one that can be corrected. They rank first in the league having run 236 offensive plays on37 total drives. They have suffered a turnover on 16.2% of their drives ranking fifth-worst in the NFL. By way of comparison, there are four teams in the NFL that have a turnover percentage under 5% of their total drives and includes the Kansas City Chiefs (3.4%), the San Francisco 49ers (3.2%), the Tennessee Titans (3.0%), and the Green Bay Packers, who have yet to have a turnover. The Cowboys will have a greater focus on ball handling and as a result, their scoring drive numbers will increase while the turnover measures decline. The betting lines imply a Cowboys win by the final score of 31-25 given the 56-point total and that the Cowboys are 5-point home favorites. The models project that Dallas will score 28 or more points in this game. The Cowboys are a solid 50-15 straight-up (SU) and 47-18 against-the-spread (ATS) for 72% winning bets when scoring 28 or more points in games played since 2010. In games in which they scored 28 or more points and were installed as 3.5 to 7.5-point favorites, they are 27-6 SU and 24-9 ATS for 73% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 6.4 points. Since 2010, the Browns are 1-16 SU and 5-11-1 ATS in games as an underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points and allowed 28 or more points. Take the Dallas Cowboys as an NFL Best Bet minus the points. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +6 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins The Machine learning models project that the Dolphins will score at least 24 points and gain a minimum of 6.5 yards-per-play. In past games in which the Dolphins bet or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 9-2 SU record and 8-2 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets since 2016. |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Virginia v. Clemson -28.5 | Top | 23-41 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Virginia Cavaliers vs No 1 Clemson Tigers The top-ranked Clemson Tigers, who are 2-0 overall and 1-0 in the ACC host the Virginia Cavaliers, who own a 1-0 overall and ACC Conference record. The two teams had not faced eachother for six consecutive seasons until last seasons’ ACC Championship game and now 10 months later face eachother again. The Tigers simply dominated the Cavaliers on both sides of the ball in their 62-17 ACC Championship win and covered the spread as 29.5-point favorites quite easily. Virginia trailed only by 7 points at the end of a 14-7 first quarter, but from there on the game was controlled by the Tigers. Clemson returning QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 302 yards completing 16 of 22 passes including 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions. All combined, he earned a ridiculously high QB rating of 248. Overall, the Tigers outgained the Cavaliers by 232 offensive yards and forced three turnovers and did not turn the ball over. I have found over my 26 years of sports data research, predictions, and picks that meaningful data points can be obtained from look at the previous game’s boxes score. Hence, the wording of What’s Next for a team coming off specific performance measures. The Cavaliers are coming off a strong start to their 2020 season with a 30-20 win over Duke University and easily covered the spread as 3.5-point home favorites. They gained 185 rushing yards on 46 attempts for a 4.02 yards-per-rush ratio. QB Brennan Armstrong had an inconsistent game throwing for 269 yards but completing 53% of his 45 pass attempts for 24 completed passes. He averaged just 4.9 yards-per-pass-attempt including 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. So, what’s next for the Cavaliers coming off this game based on their performances. The Cavaliers as road double-digit underdogs are 6-33 straight-up (SU) for 15% wins. 19-18-2 against-the-spread (ATS) for 51.4% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ is 20-19 for 51% in games played following a game in which they averaged 4.2 or fewer rushing yards-per-attempt since 2006. Not much revealed one way or the other from just that alone. If we filter the data to include games over the last five seasons the Cavaliers are 0-12 SU, 7-5 ATS for 58% winning bets, and the ‘UNDER’ has earned a 7-5 winning record. Combine Cavalier Rushing Yards and Turnover Margin When combining rushing yards per attempt and turnover margin the brilliant College Football database reveals that the Cavaliers are 4-7 SU for 36% wins, 4-7 ATS, and 8-3 ‘OVER’ for 73% winning bets. So, now I have a possible lean to bet the ‘OVER’. But we have only just begun to drill the data. The Tigers are 15-4 ATS when competing against a conference foe in games played spanning the last three seasons. They had half-time leads of 14 or more points in their last two games. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS after leading their previous two games by 14 or more points at the half in games played over the last three seasons. The Tigers offense is looking quite good noting that they scored 20 or more points in the first half of each of the first two games this season. So, the Tigers are a 13-3 ATS following two straight games scoring 20 or more points in the first half in games played over the last three seasons. So, here we get into a formidable team situation supporting a bet on the Tigers. Teams that ranked in the Top-5 and did not cover the spread in their last two games and are now favored by 20 or more points and facing an opponent off a SU win are an impressive 21-1 SU for 96% wins, 15-7 ATS for 68% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ 10-9-1 for 53% in games played since 2006. What Does the Machine Learning Project for This Game? The machine learning models predict a near certainty that the Tigers will score 28 or more points in this game. Teams ranked 5 or higher in the polls and score 28 points are 743-74 SU for 91% wins, 490-295-16 ATS for 62.4% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ has earned a solid 404-267-20 record in game splayed since 2006. More specifically, when the Tigers are 47-1 SU for 98% wins, 32-14-1 ATS for a money-making 70% winning bets, and an even 23-23-1 record on the total in games played since 2016. Take the Clemson Tigers and lay the wood as a College Football Best Bet |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Auburn +7.5 v. Georgia | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
No 7 Auburn Tigers vs No 4 Georgia Bulldogs This is a matchup of nationally ranked SEC Conference Titans squaring off in Athens, GA Saturday Night with a lot on the line. Speaking of the line, the Georgia Bulldogs are a 6.5-point home favorite, but the early betting flows sees the professionals backing the Auburn Tigers. The number of betting tickets is even at 50-50, but 75% of the money is on the Tigers and the line will move to a price of 6 points. The Tigers are 21-17 straight-up for 55% wins, but a money-burning 14-23 ATS for 38% winning bets when coming off a game allowing 14 or fewer points. The news from the database queries improves to 12-8 SU for 60% winning bets and 13-7 ATS for 65% winning bets coming off a game where the offense averaged at least 5.5 yards-per-play, had 1 or zero turnovers and play on the road against a conference foe in games played since 2010. This money line betting system has earned an 54-57 record for just 49% winners but has averaged a +220-dog wager in making the $100 bettor a profit of $4,930 over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs between +150 and +300 in a game where both teams have returned five or fewer offensive starters. Since 1990, this simple betting system has made the $100 bettor a profit of $7,430. This system supports the Auburn Tigers. The models project that the Tigers will force the Bulldogs into at least two turnovers, will have one or zero turnovers and will rush for 150 or more yards. In past games in which the Tigers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 29-1 SU record and a 21-8-1 ATS record producing 72.4% winning bets that have covered by an average of 9.3 points. The Tigers are 3-0 SU and ATS when on the road installed as a dog and meeting or exceeded the previously mentioned performance measures. Further, the best of the best is the fact that when the Tigers meet the projections mentioned above while playing a conference foe they are a perfect 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 16 points. Take the Auburn Tigers plus the points and look for the outright win. Consider splitting your bet size into two parts consisting of 70% using the spread and 30% using the money line. |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Texas A&M +18.5 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
No 13 Texas A&M Aggies vs No 2 Alabama Crimson Tide There are few matchups that are more enjoyable to watch then when two ranked teams out of the SEC Conference lock horns. This is one of them when No 13 Texas A&M Aggies travel to Tuscaloosa to face the No 2 Alabama Crimson Tide, who are favored by 17 points. Both teams are 1-0 overall and 1-0 in the SEC. The Tide got off to fast 28-3 start hosting the Missouri Tigers and coasted to the 38-19 win but failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites. The Aggies got off to unorthodox 7-5 half-time before getting control of the game in the second stanza against a determined Vanderbilt Commodores team to win 17-12 but failed to cover the spread as 25.5-point favorites. Here is a College Football betting system that has earned a 75%-win percentage on a 39-13 against-the-spread (ATS) record over the last 10 seasons. The betting system requires us to bet on road teams that scored and allowed 17 or fewer points in their last game and are now facing a host, who led by 17 or more points at the half in their last game. Over the last three seasons this system has been a near-imperfect 10-1 ATS for 92% winning bets. Who Do the Machine Learning Models ProjectFor a matchup of SEC teams, a posted total of 52-points is low scoring and does reflect the strength of both defenses in this matchup. So, the betting lines indicate a final score of 34-17 based on the Tide favored by 17 points and the posted total of 52-points. The projections call for the Aggies to hold the Tide to 28 or fewer points and not have more turnovers than the Tide. In past games in which the Aggies met or exceeded these performance measures in SEC matchups they have earned an outstanding 24-3 SU record and a 22-3 ATS mark for 88% winning bets since 2006. When they achieved these performance measures in road SEC games, they are 12- SU and ATS covering the spread by an average of 12 points. The Tide is 4-3 SU and an imperfect 0-7 ATS in home conference games when they have not scored more than 28 points and lost the turnover battle. Take the Texas A&M Aggies as an Upset Alert Best Bet Titan |
|||||||
10-03-20 | North Carolina -14 v. Boston College | Top | 26-22 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
No 12 North Carolina Tarheels take to the road and to visit Chestnut Hill to take on the ACC rival Boston College Eagles. The Tarheels were ranked 18th in the 2020 preseason poll and are now ranked 12th after their dominating 31-6 win over conference rival Syracuse Orange. They were installed as 24-point home favorites and covered that spread by a single point. This is the highest ranking the Tarheels have enjoyed since being ranked 8th in Week 13 of the 2015 season. The Tarheels are installed as 14.5-point road favorite with a posted total of 54 points. The betting public accounts for more than 70% of the bets placed on the Tarheels, but account for 48% of the total money bet on the game of the 20 sportsbooks that I track. Of the parlay bets made on this game 72% are betting the Tarheels and the ‘OVER’. So, this is a sign of irrational betting with so many obsessed with the Tarheels and provides a contrarian type of bet on Boston College. The Tarheels have not played a game in three weeks after a non-conference game against Charlotte University was cancelled due to COVID-19 related illnesses to Charlotte’s offensive unit. The layoff will not have negative impact to their performance in this game. They have the best depth on the roster in many seasons and have a sophomore QB in Sam Howell that plays at a level far beyond his years. For the 2019 season he completed 259 of his 422 pass attempts for 61.4%, gaining 3,641 yards including 38 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions. The total was lined at 65 points in the Syracuse game, which implied a higher scoring game than what was the result. The Tarheels sputtered during the first half and held a 7-3 lead. It was not until the fourth quarter that they got things ignited and scored 21 unanswered points. Howell was the main reason for the offensive explosion and for the game completed 25 of 34 passes for 75% completions, 295 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Syracuse does have an elite-level defensive unit, so it is not concerning that Howell and the offense had some rust to get rid of. The Tarheels ground attack was dominating in the fourth quarter and helped open the play action passing scheme. RB Javonte Williams had 57 rushing yards on 14 attempts including 3 touchdowns. RB Michael Carter had just 7 touches but gained 78 rushing yards for an 11.1 yards-per-rush average. WR Dyami Brown had a huge day catching 6 balls for 94 yards and a 15.7 yards-per-catch average. The Tarheels and head coach Mack Brown have a luxury consisting of 10 of 11 returning starters on offense including their QB Howell and return 7 from last year’s defense. In this matchup the defense will get the accolades being matched against an Eagle offense that returns 6 offensive starters and 9 on defense. The Tarheel defense is vastly better than the Eagle defense and despite having 9 returning defensive starters I do not see the Eagles containing the Tarheel offense for all four quarters. The Tarheels gained 160 rushing yards on 35 carries against one of the better defensive fronts seven in the ACC and will gain even more than that against the Eagle defense. The 28-point scoring level is a pivotal one with many teams having much better results straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) when they score 28 or more points versus game sin which they do not. The machine learning models project that the Tarheels will score 28 or more points. In past games in which the Tarheels scored 28 or more points has earned a 175-36 SU record for 83% wins, 142-55 ATS record good for 72% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ winning the money 77% on a 64-19-4 record since 1980. My highly intelligent database reveals that the Tarheels are 17-1 SU and winning these games by an average of 25 points, and 15-3 ATS for 83% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 7.9 points in road games and favored by double-digits. Take the North Carolina Tarheels and lay the wood as a College Football Best Bet |
|||||||
10-02-20 | Marlins +182 v. Cubs | Top | 2-0 | Win | 182 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs 7-Star MLB Best Bet on the Miami Marlins
Let us start with a proven betting system that has earned a 31-10 record for 74% winners over the past five seasons. Play against home teams with a below average on-base-percentage of 0.310 and has a stud starting pitcher on the hill with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower on the season and facing a solid starting pitcher sporting a 1.250 or lower WHIP. Marlins are loose and free and the Cubs have enormous pressure on them to not just win this game, but the series after last year’s end of season collapse. |
|||||||
10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets -1 | Top | 37-28 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Denver (0-3) vs NY Jets (0-3) 7-Star MLB Best Bet on the Jets
Let us start with a proven betting system that has earned a 37-12 ATS record good for 76% winning bets over the last 5 seasons. The system instructs us to bet on underdogs that are facing a team with a terrible turnover metric farcing 1 or less turnovers-per-game and are coming off a game in which they had a -2 or worse turnover margin. The machine learning models project that the Jets defense will get the job done tonight allowing 85 or fewer rushing yards. 20 or fewer points, and contain the Bronco offense to less than 300 yards. In past games, in which Denver’s offense had performances equal to or worse then these projections they have posted a losing 7-39 SU record and 7-38-1 ATS mark good for 15% wins since 1990 and are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS failing to cover by an average of 11 points since 2016. |
|||||||
10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 105 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Game 2 NL Wild Card best of 3 7-Star NL Total Best bet Titan ‘OVER’ This betting system has earned a solid 80-40-1 record for 67% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and require us to bet the ‘OVER’ with NL home teams with a minimum slugging-percentage of 0.430 on the season, has been hitting just 0.225 or lower spanning their last 10 games and is facing a team with a goods bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.35 or lower on the season. Padres are 14-5 OVER facing teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season; 25-11 OVER in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. |
|||||||
09-30-20 | Brewers +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers 10:08 PM EST, September 30, 2020 10-Star Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 Run Line Here is a supporting run line betting system that has earned a 48-17 record good for 74% winning bets spanning the past five seasons and requires us to bet on road underdogs using the run line of +165 to -190 that is averaging 4.0 to 4.5 runs per game and is battig just 0.225 or worse over their last five games and is facing a solid NL starter with an ERA or 3.70 or lower on the season. The Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler is on the hill and his team record is just 4-13 against the run line after giving up 1 or zero earned runs in his last outing over the last two seasons. He is also 0-2 when facing the Brewers and was on the disabled list twice in September because of a blister at the tip of his right index finger. He pitched just 11 2/3 innings in September. Brent Sutor has made four appearances as an opener, he had no decisions and a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings. Milwaukee finished sixth in the NL with a staff ERA of 4.16, and the team's relievers were fourth with a 4.17 mark. |
|||||||
09-30-20 | Heat v. Lakers -5 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 35 h 7 m | Show |
Miami Heat vs LA Lakers 9:00 PM EST, September 30, 2020 7-Star Best Bet on the LA Lakers This is a great betting system that has earned a 79-20 SU record for 80% wins and a 67-31-1 ATS mark for 68.4% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are to bet on favorites with a winning record on the season and facing an opponent that has won 60 to 75% of their games on the season and is coming off a game in which the combined score went over the posted total by 20 or more points. The record is 15-5 SU for 75% wins and 13-7 ATS for 65% winning bets in playoff games. Plus, a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the NBA Finals since 2015. The machine learning reveals that the Lakers are 21-6 ATS for 78% winning bets when scoring at least 105 points and having 40% of their points scored from made 3-pointers. 8-0 SU and ATS since the start of the 2018 season. |
|||||||
09-30-20 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Game 1 NL Wild Card best of 3 7-Star NL Total Best bet Titan ‘OVER’ This betting system has earned a solid 79-39-1 record for 67% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and require us to bet the ‘OVER’ with NL home teams with a minimum slugging-percentage of 0.430 on the season, has been hitting just 0.225 or lower spanning their last 10 games and is facing a team with a goods bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.35 or lower on the season. Padres are 40-20 ‘OVER’ when facing a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts on the season; 13-5 ‘OVER’ when facing a team averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. Cardinals are 13-4 ‘OVER’ in road games after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base over the last two seasons. |
|||||||
09-30-20 | Marlins +147 v. Cubs | Top | 5-1 | Win | 147 | 2 h 1 m | Show |
Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs 7-Star Best Bet on the Miami Marlins Here is an awesome betting system that has earned a 28-14 record for 67% winners and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $2,870 since 2016. The requirements are to be on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a below average slugging percentage of 0.400 or lower and is now facig an elite NL starting pitcher posting a WHIP |
|||||||
09-29-20 | Yankees v. Indians -102 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Cleveland Indians 7:00 PM EST, September 29, 2020 Bieber is going to be the Cy Young Award winners for the 2020 season. He has posted a 1.63 ERA with an 0.856 WHIP for a 8-1 record spanning 12 starts and 77 1/3 innings of work. He has 122 strikeouts for a ridiculous 1.58 Ks per inning ratio. Power pitcher Cole has 94 strikeouts with only 4 1/3 fewer innings pitched. In nine of his 12 starts Bieber allowed two or fewer earned runs. This betting system supports Cleveland and has earned a 112-59 record over the last five seasons and instructs us to bet on home teams with a well-rested starter on 5 or 6 days and a solid bullpen posting a 1.35 or lower WHIP on the season and facing an opponent with a 0.440 or higher slugging percentage. Yankees are just 2-7 SU for 22.2% wins when facing a SP sporting an ERA of 2.3 or lower in road games from September 1 to the end of the season including playoffs. |
|||||||
09-29-20 | White Sox v. A's +115 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
CWS vs Oakland A’s 7-Star MLB Best Bet on the Oakland A’s
Let us start with a proven betting system that has earned a 41-15 record good for 73% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The system instructs us to bet on AL teams with a money line between -125 and +125 with a starting pitcher that has posted a 4.20 to 4.70 ERA on the season and has posted a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. The $100 bettor has made $2,690 per $100 wager. Oakland has done well for backers with a solid 52-28 ($24560-per-$100 wager) using the money line facing AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs-per-game on the season over the last two seasons. The CWS were having a tremendous ‘sprint’ season until the final stretch losing 7 of their last 8 games and 8 of their last 10 games. The A’s were 5-5 down the stretch over their last 10 games. This is also the first time ever in MLB p[postseason history that these two teams have met. Jesus Luzardo is our starting LH pitcher and he has amazing power and control with all his pitches. He throws his four-seem fastball and sinker at an average between 96 and 98 MPH. The sinker tales an average of 10 inches and you will see it ride on the hands of LH batters making it impossible for them to barrel up that pitch. He throws fastball 55% and mixes in an 86 MPH change, and 83 MPH curve. Batters are hitting 0.155 combined on the four-seem and sinker with a scant 0.075 batting average on batted balls in play (BABIP) this season, The current members of the CWS are batting a combined 0.218 with no walks and 10 K’s spanning 30 at-bats against Luzardo. He made 9 appearances and 7 were starts in which he posted a 3.83 ERA averaging 5.5 innings pitched per start. The machine learning tells us that Luzardo will complete more innings than Giolito and that the As will have at least 1 multiple-run-inning. In past games in which the As met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a superb 131-22 SU record for 86% winners averaging a -141 wager and making the $100 bettor $10, 830 for a 48% return-on-investment in games played since the start of the 2018 season. In playoff games teams that have met or exceeded these projections have earned an outstanding 35-9 SU record for 80% winning bets. |
|||||||
09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens 10-Star Titan on the Baltimore Ravens
Travel related issues for the Chiefs as they are coming off a trip to LA and defeated the Chargers in a hard-fought 23-20 win and failed to cover the spread as 9-point favorites. They now play another road trip to the East Coast to face an excellent Baltimore Ravens team. Last September the Ravens visited Arrowhead and lost 33-28 to the Chiefs and failed to cover as 4-point underdogs. So, revenge is clearly a factor for the Ravens, in what may be a preview of the AFC Conference Championship game. So, teams that are coming off a road win installed as a favorite against an opponent on the West Coast and is now traveling again to face an opponent on the East Coast and a team they defeated last season are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS failing to cover the spread by 9.4 points. The machine learning models project that the Ravens will win this game by double digits. The Ravens are projected to outrush the Chiefs by at least a margin of 2:1 (more than twice as many rushing yards). In addition, they are projected to gain at least 1.2 yards-per-play more than the Chiefs. In past games in which the Ravens doubled their opponent rushing yards they have gone on to earn a 44-3 SU mark and 33-14-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. When the Ravens have doubled the opponents rushing yards and outgained them by an average of 1.2 YPPL they have earned a 37-1 SU record and 34-4 ATS for 90% winning bets. |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Lions +6 v. Cardinals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Detroit vs Arizona 4:25 PM EST, September 27, 2020
The machine learning tools project that the Lions will score 24 or more points and average a minimum of 5.3 yards-per-play. In past games when they met or exceeded these measures as an underdog they have gone to a solid 27-12 ATS record for 69% winning bets. Take the Detroit Lions as a 7-Star Best Bet. |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Raiders +6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 20-36 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
Raiders vs Patriots It has been 19 years since Jon Gruden was head coach of the Raiders and lost 16-13 in a highly scrutinized playoff game in Foxborough. Late in the fourth quarter it appeared that Tom Brady, who at the time few people knew his name, had fumbled the ball. Upon further review the official reversed the decision and scored it as an incomplete pass under the obscure “luck rule”. For Jon Gruden that single play has never faded in his memory since his Raiders had control of the game and were winning. Are the Raiders Contenders?The Raiders have the personnel on both sides of the ball to be contenders for a playoff berth. They are coming off a home win installed as an underdog against a perennial playoff team in the New Orleans Saints. However, the Raiders are a money-burning 3-16 against-the-spread following a home win as an underdog since 2010. This trend by itself is not very meaningful if the present Raiders are a winning record team. That trend evolved over a period of losing seasons. So, always be careful when looking at specific team trends. The good news is that the Raiders are a solid 19-8 ATS for 70% winning bets coming off a dominating win that featured 34 or more minutes in time-of-possession and 24 or more first downs. Further, head coach Jon Gruden is an outstanding 22-9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points in all games he has coached. In 2019, the Raiders scored 85 points in the first quarter and 110 points in the second for a total of 195 first-half points. Then the second half became a challenge and in some games a disaster scoring just 27 points in the third and 76 in the fourth for a total of 103 second-half points. Their second-half output was less than what they scored in the second quarter alone last season. So far in 2020, the scoring is vastly improved averaging 34 points-per-game and have scored 34 points in each half. Raider 2019 Passing vs 2020 PassingThe 2019 season saw far too many check down passes by QB Derek Carr. There were 156 short right, 140 short middle, and 120 short left pass attempts for a combined total of 416 pass attempts. Carr attempted 513 passes and completed 361 for a 64% completing percentage. However, only 19% of his passes thrown were beyond 20 yards and that allowed defenses to bring safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to stop the run and blitz Carr. In 2020, the Raiders have not looked for the deep ball and have an offensive scheme designed to minimize mistakes and move the chains in a physical style of play. This will open more play action pass plays because the Raiders ground attack must be respected by opposing defensive units. What Does the Machine Learning Tools Tell Us?The machine learning models project that both teams will score a minimum of 20 points. The Raiders when on the road are 36-44 straight-up (SU) and 55-23-2 against-the-spread (ATS) for 70.5% winning bets since 1990 and 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2016 when both teams score 20 or more points. Take the Raiders plus the points as a Best Bet |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Bengals +5.5 v. Eagles | Top | 23-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles The Philadelphia Eagles season is on the line having lost their first two games in horrific fashion when they host another 0-2 team in the Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles roster has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball and many new names will now be starters and expected to contribute significantly to this matchup. In each of the last two seasons the Eagles have had poor starts and then had to get out the magic wand to make the playoffs since their 2017 Super Bowl Championship season. HC Pederson is annoyed with the Philadelphia press and has answered some questions in a “Belichick” short-tempered fashion. Earlier this week he stated at a press conference that "Those guys in that locker room are mad…. they are upset that we are 0-2 and in this position. But nobody's going to feel sorry for the Philadelphia Eagles or feel sorry for me. I'm going to come here every day and take your questions. You may not like the answers, but I don't care, quite frankly, and what I care about is our team, right, and getting our team prepared to play the Bengals this Sunday."Those statements do not address the monumental problem the Eagles must solve with so many holes in the dam. Starting with the offensive line, LG Seumalo will miss several weeks with a knee injury. Pro Bowl RG Pederson is out for the year after tearing his achilleas in preseason drills. The Eagles are struggling mightily on both sides of the ball. The run defense is awful, too many drives stall and end up not scoring, no discipline defending play action pass plays. The Rams, who defeated the Eagles last week, led the NFL with the most play action pass plays run in 2019. So, for the Eagle defense to not be prepared for that scheme is bizarre indeed. This NFL betting system has earned a solid 109-68 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the last 30 seasons, 12-6 ATS over the last three season, and 19-8 ATS over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after they allowed 30 or more points in their previous game and is facing an opponent that is coming off a double-digit loss.So, we know the Bengals are road underdogs of 6-points and lost 35-30 on the road at the Cleveland Browns, but managed to get an against-the-spread (ATS) win as 6-point dogs. The Eagles were throttled 37-19 by the Rams and never led in the game. Having massive databases at my fingertips is a luxury when working on matchup and situational analyses. So, I bet you wanted to know how 0-2 SU and ATS teams that were favored in both games in Week 1 and 2 have done in Week 3. Ewell, these slow starters are 9-7 SU for 56% wins and 9-6-1 ATS for 60% winning bets since 1990. If the team lost at home in Week 2 are 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS for 69% winners if playing at home in Week 3. Lastly, if these 0-2 SU and ATS teams were a playoff team from the previous season they are 16-14 SU and 19-11 ATS for 63% winning bets. For his career Wentz is 32-27 SU, 28-31 ATS, and the ‘Over’ is 29-28 with two pushes. In last week’s loss to the Rams Wentz had no touchdown passes and marked the 8th time in his career that he recorded zero TD passes. That horrific performance level accounts for 14% of the 59 games he has played and must improve if he is to keep his starting QB job at the NFL level. The good news, though, is that Wentz has thrown a single TD pass in five of the seven games following a game getting shutout from the scoring endzone. In 2016 in a home game against the Falcons he had a second consecutive game with zero TD passes and only once in a road game at Seattle in 2016 did he throw more than 1 TD pass getting two of them in that game. In not one of those 7 games did he have more TD passes than interceptions. Not Once! Take the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points as a Best Bet Upset Alert |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Denver Nuggets vs LA Lakers I also like the first-half bet on Denver plus the points and this betting system supports that opportunity. The system has earned a solid 63-32 ATS record for 67% winning bets and instructs us to bet on 3-seed underdogs using the first-half line when trailing in a playoff series. The machine learning models project that the Nuggets will make at least 48% of their shot attempts, 33% of their 3-point shot attempts, and score at least 107 points. The Nuggets are 181-33 SU and 169-39-6 ATS for 81% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 9 points. |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Florida State +11 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-52 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Florida State vs 12 Miami (FLA) This betting system has earned a losing 45-153 record for 23% SU wins and 117-75-6 ATS mark good for 61% winners over the past 15 seasons. The requirements for an active opportunity are to bet on unranked road teams facing a conference foe and installed as a 3.5 or greater underdog and facing a ranked team between game numbers 2 and 5 of the regular seasons. Now, let us drill down through this data to determine a sub-set that has posted better results. Applying the data to only show games played in the ACC Conference produces a 5-18 SU record for 22% wins and a 15-8 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets since 2005. One more drill down produces a subset that has earned a 7-12 SU record for 37% wins and a jaw-dropping 16-3 ATS mark good for 84% when the team (Seminoles) is coming off a road game installed as a favorite. The Hurricanes are coming off a terrific 47-34 win over the Louisville Cardinals in which the Hurricanes graduate transfer QB D’Eriq King completed 18 of 30 pass attempts for 325 yards and three touchdowns. The Hurricanes are a solid 5-1 ATS coming off a game throwing for 300 or more passing yards and rushing for at least 150 yards. However, the news is not all good given that the Hurricane defense was dominated in allowing 209 rushing yards and 309 passing yards. Hurricanes are a terrible 1-7 ATS for 11% winning bets following a game in which their defense allowed a minimum of 180 rushing yards and 250 passing yards. The machine learning models project that the Seminoles will gain 8.5 or more yards-per-play and will score 28 or more points. In past games in which the Seminoles met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn an outstanding 12-0 SU record and a 9-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 11 points. Bet the Florida State Seminoles and split the wager into two parts with 70% of your normal bet size on the line and 30% bet using the money line. I realize this is a very bold call to make, but I do belevie the Seminoles will win the game! |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati -12 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
22 Army vs 14 Cincinnati September 26, 2020, 3:30 PM EST
Army is off to a fast start winning and covering both games they have played. They defeated Middle Tenn State 42-0 as a 3.5-point home favorite and defeated LA-Monroe 37-7 as 24-point home favorites. The bad news for the Cadets is that they are 5-15 ATS after two consecutive games scoring at least 31 points in each and 11-27 ATS following two straight games in which they outrushed their opponents by 150 or more rushing yards in each game. The machine learning models project that Cincinnati will score at least 28 points and allow less than 350 offensive yards. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 47-0 SU record and 34-10-1 ATS record good for 77% winning bets since 2006 and 7-1 ATS over the last three seasons. |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Texas -17.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
8 Texas vs Texas Tech The machine learning models project that the Longhorns will gain at least 6.9 yards-per-play, score 28 or more points, and have fewer turnovers than Texas Tech. In past games in which the Longhorns have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets that have covered by an average of 13 points. |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Kentucky v. Auburn -6.5 | Top | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 23 Kentucky vs 8 Auburn 12:00 PM EST, September 26, 2020
The Tigers (9-4, 5-3 SEC in 2019) also reached the 50-point mark four times during Nix's initial campaign. That ties for second in program history behind the six 50-point outings Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton put on the board during the school's 2010 national championship season. The machine learning tools project that the Tigers will gain at least 150 rushing yards and score at least 27 points and average at least 9 yards-per-pass play. In past games in which the Tigers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 49-3 SU record and a 36-15-1 ATS mark for 71% winning bets since 2006 and 13-3 ATS over the last three seasons. Take the Auburn Tigers as a 7-Star Best Bet. |
|||||||
09-24-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6 | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 LA Lakers vs Denver Nuggets 9:00 PM EST, September 24, 2020
The machine learning tools project that the Nuggets will shot at least 48% from the field, will make at least 35% of their 3-point shots and score at least 105 points. In past games in which the Nuggets met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a solid 107-19 SU record and 104-20-2 ATS for 84% winning bets that covered the number by 9.5 points in games played over the last 7 seasons; 43-8 SU and 38-12-1 ATS for 76% winning bets over the last two seasons; 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS for 91% winning bets that covered the spread by 8.9 points over the last two playoff seasons. Take the Denver Nuggets as a 7-Star Best Bet tonight.
|
|||||||
09-24-20 | Dolphins +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars Not one week goes by that the Miami media does not mention the calming influence and command of the huddle that Fitzpatrick bring to the team. Isaiah Ford was a Week 13 call-up from the practice squad in Week 13 last year, he has benefitted the most from Fitzpatrick’s extreme knowledge of the game. Since Week 13 of last season, Ford has caught 30 passes on 44 targets gaining 325 yards and averaging a solid 7.4 yards-per-catch. In last week’s loss to the Bills, Fitzpatrick completed 31 of 47 passes for 328 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. All his metrics combined for an impressive 100.3 quarter-back-rating (QBR) against one of the better defensive units in the AFC. Ford was targeted more than DeVante Parker and Ford will steadily become an increasing part of the offensive game plan. A definite must-have on your DFS NFL team. The Supporting Betting SystemThis betting system has earned a solid 86-50 ATS record good for 63% winning bets and a money-making 20% return-on-investment (ROI) spanning the past 15 seasons. The system instructs us to bet on teams in the first four weeks of the seasons facing a conference foe installed as dogs of 1.5 to 6 points and a team that won five or fewer games in the previous season. So, it gets better when we drill down through the data and add game location as a parameter. For teams that are on the road and meeting the parameters above improves the betting system to 38-17-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Not satisfied yet. When the field surface is factored in, which is grass in the confines of TIAA Field, the road warrior is an impressive 27-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. What Does the Machine Learning Have to Say?The machine learning models project that the Dolphins will have more passing yards. will average 6.2 yards-per-play and will have a higher YPPL ratio than the Jaguars. In past games when the Dolphins have met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a solid 21-10-1 ATS record good for 68% winning bets and a 28.5% ROI in games played over the last 15 seasons. Take the Miami Dolphins as a modest road dog. |
|||||||
09-24-20 | Astros v. Rangers +115 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers September 24, 2020, 8:05 PM EST
Here is a solid betting system that supports the Rangers and has earned an 86-56 record for 65% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and instructs us to play on AL home underdogs with a starting pitcher who has posted a 1.10 or better (lower value) WHIP on the season and is facing an opponent whose starting pitcher has a 1.200 WHIP or better on the season. Astros are just 13-20 (-13.3 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. |
|||||||
09-24-20 | UAB v. South Alabama +7 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
UAB vs South Alabama On Thursday Night at Hancock Whitney Stadium the C-USA UAB Blazers will be the guests of the Sun Belt South Alabama Jaguars with both teams coming off losses. The Blazers were man-handled at Miami 31-14 and failed to cover the generous 15.5 point spread back on September 10. The Jaguars are coming off a tough 27-24 home loss to Tulane, but easily covered the spread as 11.5-point underdogs. The Blazers are 1-1 versus the total line while the Jaguars have seen both of their games go ‘UNDER’ the total line. Both Teams have Many Returning StartersThe Blazers head coach Bill Clark is excited about the season given that he has 18 of the 22 starters from last season returning to play this one. The Blazers return nine starters on offense including their quarterback and red shirt junior Tyler Johnston III, who has been their starter for the past three seasons. In 2019, he threw for 2,250 yards on 59% completions including 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Cutting down the number of interceptions and improving the touchdown-to-interception ratio were addressed during the off season. He was off to a vastly improved start to the season before injuring his shoulder and is out indefinitely. The biggest asset on the team is the return of all five starting offensive linemen from last season. The OL unit is by far the most complex and most difficult for any group of five teammates to work together to make the most out of every possession. UAB has four red shirt Seniors and a red shirt Junior on the offensive line and their chemistry is extremely positive having the experience of playing together for many games. Having an experienced QB and OL has proven to reduce mistakes and execute game plans at a much higher level. So, backup sophomore QB Bryson Lucero will have added confidence because of the experienced OL. A Betting System That Hits 80% ATS WinnersHere is an impeccable betting system that has earned a 22-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons and 15-2 ATS mark good for 88% winning bets. The instructions required are to play on any team off an extremely tough loss of three or fewer points during the first four weeks of the regular season. An amazing 58% of these games covered the spready a minimum of 7 points. What Does the Machine Learning Models Tell Us?I have previously discussed the importance of 28 points and the implications for NCAA football teams when they score or more or allow more than 28 points in a game. There are the high-powered offenses every year, like the LSU Tigers, in 2019 that will have a higher pivot point for points scored and allowed. Overall, I have found the 28-point pivot to be identified by the machine learning models more often. So, the projections call for the Jaguars to score 28 or more points, gain a minimum of 175 rushing yards, will have more rushing yards than the Blazers, and average at least 1.0 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Jaguars scored 28 or more points they have earned a solid 26-13 SU record and 23-15-1 ATS mark for 61% winning bets since 2012. The Blazers are a miserable 17-116 SU for 13% wins and 40-81-2 ATS for 33% winning bets since 2012. Worse yet is that the Blazers are 1-8 SU and ATS for 11.1% winners when installed as a road favorite and allowing the host to score 28 or more points. The Jaguars are a robust money making 15-4 SU for 79% wins and 11-6-2 ATS for 65% winning bets when outgaining their opponent by at least 1.25 yards-per-play since 2012 and 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS spanning games played over the last three seasons. Bet the South Alabama Jaguars plus the points as a Best Bet Upset Alert Pick and expect the Upset! |
|||||||
09-23-20 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics 8:30 PM EST, September 23, 2020
The machine learning tools project that the Heat will make at least 78% of their free throw attempts and will shoot at least 44% form the field and have the better ands more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In past games in which the Heat met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a solid 145-13 SU record and 129-27 ATS for 83% winning bets that covered the number by 9.2 points. Take the Miami Heat as a 7-Star Best Bet tonight.
|
|||||||
09-22-20 | A's +169 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
Oakland A’s vs LA Dodgers September 21, 2020, 6:10 PM EST
Here is a solid betting system that supports the A’s and has earned a 37-31 record for 55% winning bets over the last five seasons and instructs us to play on all underdogs of +1540 and greater that has an exceptional bullpen tht sports a 3.75 or better ERA and is starting a pitcher on more than 7 days rest. |
|||||||
09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +7 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 LA Lakers vs Denver Nuggets 9:00 PM EST, September 22, 2020
Only Murry played more minutes (44) than Jokic (39) in Game 2 and this duo knows their performance is key to getting a Game 3 win tonight. Over his last four games against the Lakers Jokic has averaged 31 minutes, shot 49% from the field,94% form the charity stripe, and averaging 16.3 points-per-game (PPG). Over his last 10 playoff games, he is averaging 31minutes, 60% field goal percentage, 84% free-throw-percentage, 17.8 PPG and includes 10 boards-per-game, and 6.6 assist-per-game. The Nuggets are 18-6 SU for 75% wins and 15-8-1 against-the-spread (ATS) for 65% winning bets following a loss in which Jokic scored 26 or more points. In games in which Jokic had more assists than rebounds, his team is 20-10 SU and 18-10-2 ATS for 64% winning bets. Jamal Murray and Jokic Working TogetherPG Murray is playing at an elevated level and has averaged 34 minutes, shot 48% form the field, averaging 5.8 assists, and scoring 18.5 PPG over his last four games against the Lakers. Now, it is not up to Murray and Dojik to take it upon themselves to win this game. It is the opposite for the Nuggets team. In games when Dojik and Murray scored at least 50 points and then had a total of four more players scoring in double-digits the Nuggets record is 9-3 SU and ATS and when a total of seven Nuggets scored in double-digits they are 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS. Minutes played is a valuable parameter and underscores the need for Murray and Jokic to remain out of foul trouble tonight. The Nuggets are 12-7 ATS for 63% winning bets when Murray logged 40 or more minutes. When both Murray and Dojik have logged 40 or more minutes in the same game the Nuggets are 25-19 SU and 27-17 ATS for 61.4% winning bets. Will Anthony Davis be the Conference Finals MVP?No argument is needed that AD is the leader by a wide margin for the Western Conference Finals MVP award. He has had more than 30 points scored in each of the first two games of this series and the offensive game plan designed by head coach Vogel is centered on him. In case you wanted to know, the Lakers are 18-7 SU and 12-13 ATS in games played following back-to-back games where AD scored 30 or more points. What is eye-opening is that the ‘UNDER’ in these games has earned am 18-7 ‘UNDER’ record for 72% winning bets. The ‘UNDER’ is also supported by a combined Lebron James and AD scoring metric. The ‘UNDER’ is 25-14 for 65% winning bets when James and Davis have combined for 50 or more points in Laker games. The Lakers are 29-10 SU and 10-20 ATS in these games. What Does the Machine Learning Models Tell Us?The machine learning tools confirm a bet on the Nuggets and a lean towards the ‘UNDER’ The projections call for the Nuggets to have the better, more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio, have more points scored in the paint and will have more made 3-point shots than the Lakers have fast break points scored. So, in past games where the Nuggets have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 101-12 SU record and an 88-23-2 ATS record good for cashing 79% of the bets made and has covered the spread by an average of 9.4 points. When these games have been in the playoffs the Nuggets have earned a 6-3 SU and ATS record good for 67% winning bets. Take the Denver Nuggets as a 7-Star Best Bet tonight.
|
|||||||
09-21-20 | Saints -5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 New Orleans vs Las Vegas 8:15 PM EST, September 21, 2020
Brees and the Saints are 14-8 SU and ATS for 64% winning bets following a home win in which Brees threw for fewer than 190 passing yards. The Saints with Brees starting are 25-18 SU and 25-17-1 ATS for 60% winning bets coming off a home ATS win and playing their next game on a grass surface and 6-3 ATS for 67% ATS winning bets since 2016. The Saints are 10-5 ATS for 67% winning bets when coming off a home ATS win and facing a team that was not in the playoffs of the previous season. Last, Saints are an impeccable 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets when installed as a road favorite and facing a team that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season. This betting system is active for a bet on the Saints tonight and has earned a remarkable 28-5 ATS mark for 85% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. The system requires us to be on road teams that are facing an opponent that had a struggling defense in the previous season that allowed an average of 24 points-per-game and are coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points. What Does the Machine Learning Have to Say?The machine learning models project that the Saints will average at least 7.0 yards-per-pass-attempt and will have at least 5 more first downs than the Raiders. The Saints are 54-10 SU for 84% wins and 54-9-1 ATS for 86% winning bets that covered by an average of 11 points when they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures since 2002.
|
|||||||
09-21-20 | White Sox v. Indians -109 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
CWS vs Cleveland Indians September 21, 2020, 6:10 PM EST
Here is a solid betting system that supports the Indians and has earned an 86-34 record for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and instructs us to bet on home teams that are facing an opponent that is coming off 5 consecutive games stranding 7 or fewer runner sain each game and has an overused bullpen that has thrown 4 or more innings in three consecutive games. The machine learning models project that the Indians starting pitcher Aaron Vivale will complete more innings than the CWS starter Dane Dunning and the Indians will have at least one multiple-run inning ‘crooked number’. IN past games in which the Indians met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 169-42 record for 81% wins and has made the $100 bettor $13,515 since 2004 and a 56% ROI. |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Chiefs v. Chargers +9 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
Kansas City vs LA Chargers 7-Star Upset Alert Titan on the Chargers
Here is a solid betting system that supports the Dolphins and is quite simple. It has earned a 77-35 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to bet on underdogs that are facing a team coming off a home win spanning the first four weeks of the regular season. This system has earned a 16-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons. The machine learning models project that Miami will have a better Yards-per-play ratio and have no more than one turnover. In past games in which the Chargers were home underdogs and met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 7-1 SU record and a 7-1 ATS record covering by an average of 14 points for a robust 67% ROI. Also, the Chargers are 51-14 SU and 40-24-1 ATS in home games and gaining at least 5.75 or more yards-per-play and when a home dog they are 8-3 for 72% ATS. |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Lions +6.5 v. Packers | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Detroit vs Green Bay 1:00 PM EST, September 20, 2020
We were on the Packers last week in their road upset win over the Vikings, but now against them. Teams ebb and flow and when they are coming off a strong outing and above average performance levels there is a propensity to revert back to the mean. Detroit outplayed Chicago last week on both sides of the ball and found a way to lose that game. They will not do that again in this matchup. The machine learning projections call for the Lions to win the turnover batter, have more first downs, and average at least 4.7 yards-per-rush. In past games in which they met or exceeded those performance measures they went on to earn a perfect 20-0 ATS mark 19-1 SU and covered the spread by an average of 13 points.
|
|||||||
09-20-20 | Falcons +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show |
Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys Both teams come into this game off losses and no one ever wants to start 0-2 out of the gate. The Cowboys had a tough game against a physical Rams team, but their inability to convert on third downs (3-12 25%) and move the chains was the main reason they lost. Time-of-possession was heavily in favor of the Rams, who had an 11:16 edge, but Dallas ran 69 plays to the Rams 72 plays. The Rams had a 10-minute edge in the first quarter with the remaining three quarters equal in time-of-possession. The Rams did convert well on third downs (8-17 53%) and had more scoring chances than Dallas attained. One of those scoring chances ended with Goff throwing an interception, which was the only turnover of the game for either team. Dallas had just one drive in the first quarter that started on their own 26 and ended 6 plays later their 48-yard line. The Rams took their first possession of the season and drove 70 yards on 7 plays to score a touchdown. Their second drive of the quarter ended at the Dallas 10-yard line after missing a short field goal attempt. This system is one you want to record and use for every NFL season as it has earned an incredible 27-5 against-the-spread record good for 84% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system requires are to bet on underdogs that were excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing-yards-per-game (PYPG) last season and after a game in which their defense allowed 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt (PYPA). This combination of performance parameters has recorded a near-perfect 17-1 ATS over the last five seasons and is 8-0 ATS over the last three seasons. The machine learning models project that the Falcons will score more than 27 points, pass for at least 260 yards, and will not be outgained by more than 65 total yards. In past games in which the Falcons met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to earn a 33-7 SU mark and 29-10-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets. |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Wake returns just three starters on offense but return eight starters on defense. Despite the lack of expereince on offense, they held up well against Clemson, who has a one of the best defensive units in the nation. They do return eight starters on defense that will match up quite well against a solid Wolfpack offensive unit. Wake played many high-scoring games in 2019 and as a result the defense was spending too much time on the field and gave up too many fourth quarter scores. The offense is geared towards moving the chains and keeping the opposing offense off the field, which is the winning recipe facing the Wolfpack. A Time-Tested Betting SystemHere is a proven betting system that has earned a solid 57-22 ATS record since 1990 and instructs us to play on road teams in the first four weeks of the season that have a new starting QB and was a bowl team that lost the last two games of the season. What Does the Machine Learning Tools Suggest is a Solid Bet?The projections call for Wake to score at least 28 points and throw for an average of at least 9 or more passing yards-per-attempt. In past games in which Wake has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 20-0 SU record and an amazing 18-1 ATS mark for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 9.5 points. Take the Wake Forest Demon Deacons as a Best Bet Upset Alert this Saturday. |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Miami-FL +1.5 v. Louisville | Top | 47-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Miami (FLA) vs Louisville
7-Star Upset Alert Titan on the Miami Hurricanes Last season, the Hurricanes destroyed the Cardinal 55-27 with Quarterback Jarren Williams throwing for a school-record six touchdowns. After that game, it appeared that the Hurricanes were on the national stage, but Williams never even came close to matching that performance over the remainder of the season. He transferred to Garden City Community College in Kansas to hopefully finish out his NCAA career. The Hurricanes lost a lot of talent from last season’s team due to the NFL draft and players opting out of the season account of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, for those choosing to play has brough them great opportunities and the Hurricanes starting QB D’Eriq King, who is a graduate transfer from the University of Houston, is making the most of it. He has an active NCAA-record scoring streak of having at least one touchdown pass and one rushing touchdown in 16 consecutive games. So, the Hurricanes offense under new OC Rhett Lashlee, will look to play fast and optimize the duel threat athleticism of King. Cardinal Defense is Much BetterThe Louisville defense allowed three scoring touchdowns last week in their 35-21 win over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers last week. However, two of these scores involved drives of 1 and 4 yards, after failed special team plays. One of the turnovers was a dropped ball by the punter and then a blocked punt. So, taking those miscues into account, the Louisville defense may have allowed 10 or fewer points. The defense also got a turnover on downs at the goal line and had 11 tackles-for-loss and reflects consistent gap discipline and penetration they attained. This unit will have to play even better against the Hurricane offense that suddenly has many weapons and King, who is even being mentioned in Heisman conversations. Important Matchup SituationsThe following team situational results are based on their games last week. The Hurricanes are 6-1 straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) after a game in which they rushed for 300 or more yards since the 2011 season. Moreover, the Hurricanes are a stout 18-4 SU and 14-8 ATS for 64% winning bets when out rushing their previous opponent by 125 or more yards since 2011. The Cardinal is just 18-28 ATS for 39% winning bets following a game where their defense forced no more than one turnover in games played since 2011. Moreover, they are 6-17 ATS for 26% winning bets when the next game has been at home and a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS when ranked in the Top-25 poll. A Money Line Betting System Support the HurricanesThis money line betting system has earned an outstanding 41-31 record for 56% winning wagers and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $4,910 over the last 10 seasons. The betting system instructs us to bet on road team using the money line that are facing an opponent coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by at least 175 yards and has at least eight returning starters on offense during the first four weeks of the regular season. What Does the Machine Learning Tools Expect?The current lines showing Louisville favored by 2.5 points and total of 65 points implies a 34-31 Louisville win. However, the machine learning projections sees the final score favoring the Hurricanes if they can contain the Cardinal to fewer than 28 points. When the Hurricanes have been installed as a road dog and have held the host to fewer than 28 points has produced a 16-12 SU record and a jaw-dropping 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winning bets since 1990. The Cardinal is just 10-4 SU and 1-13 ATS when they have been a home favorite and scored fewer than 28 points in games played since 2011. The ‘UNDER’ is a perfect 14-0 in these games. The Miami Hurricanes +2.5 points and the ‘UNDER’ 65-points are a pair of Best Bets and consider making this a parlay opportunity, but risk no more than a 3-Star Amount |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville UNDER 66 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Miami (FLA) vs Louisville
7-Star Upset Alert Titan on the Miami Hurricanes Last season, the Hurricanes destroyed the Cardinal 55-27 with Quarterback Jarren Williams throwing for a school-record six touchdowns. After that game, it appeared that the Hurricanes were on the national stage, but Williams never even came close to matching that performance over the remainder of the season. He transferred to Garden City Community College in Kansas to hopefully finish out his NCAA career. The Hurricanes lost a lot of talent from last season’s team due to the NFL draft and players opting out of the season account of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, for those choosing to play has brough them great opportunities and the Hurricanes starting QB D’Eriq King, who is a graduate transfer from the University of Houston, is making the most of it. He has an active NCAA-record scoring streak of having at least one touchdown pass and one rushing touchdown in 16 consecutive games. So, the Hurricanes offense under new OC Rhett Lashlee, will look to play fast and optimize the duel threat athleticism of King. Cardinal Defense is Much BetterThe Louisville defense allowed three scoring touchdowns last week in their 35-21 win over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers last week. However, two of these scores involved drives of 1 and 4 yards, after failed special team plays. One of the turnovers was a dropped ball by the punter and then a blocked punt. So, taking those miscues into account, the Louisville defense may have allowed 10 or fewer points. The defense also got a turnover on downs at the goal line and had 11 tackles-for-loss and reflects consistent gap discipline and penetration they attained. This unit will have to play even better against the Hurricane offense that suddenly has many weapons and King, who is even being mentioned in Heisman conversations. Important Matchup SituationsThe following team situational results are based on their games last week. The Hurricanes are 6-1 straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) after a game in which they rushed for 300 or more yards since the 2011 season. Moreover, the Hurricanes are a stout 18-4 SU and 14-8 ATS for 64% winning bets when out rushing their previous opponent by 125 or more yards since 2011. The Cardinal is just 18-28 ATS for 39% winning bets following a game where their defense forced no more than one turnover in games played since 2011. Moreover, they are 6-17 ATS for 26% winning bets when the next game has been at home and a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS when ranked in the Top-25 poll. A Money Line Betting System Support the HurricanesThis money line betting system has earned an outstanding 41-31 record for 56% winning wagers and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $4,910 over the last 10 seasons. The betting system instructs us to bet on road team using the money line that are facing an opponent coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by at least 175 yards and has at least eight returning starters on offense during the first four weeks of the regular season. What Does the Machine Learning Tools Expect?The current lines showing Louisville favored by 2.5 points and total of 65 points implies a 34-31 Louisville win. However, the machine learning projections sees the final score favoring the Hurricanes if they can contain the Cardinal to fewer than 28 points. When the Hurricanes have been installed as a road dog and have held the host to fewer than 28 points has produced a 16-12 SU record and a jaw-dropping 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winning bets since 1990. The Cardinal is just 10-4 SU and 1-13 ATS when they have been a home favorite and scored fewer than 28 points in games played since 2011. The ‘UNDER’ is a perfect 14-0 in these games. The Miami Hurricanes +2.5 points and the ‘UNDER’ 65-points are a pair of Best Bets and consider making this a parlay opportunity, but risk no more than a 3-Star Amount |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +7.5 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
14 University of Central Florida vs Georgia Tech The No 14 UCF Knights will take to the field for the first time in the 2020 season. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets went into Tallahassee as a 13-point underdog and upset the Florida State Seminoles 16-13. Their confidence will be high knowing they have another opportunity to upset a ranked opponent in the Knights. The Jackets find themselves installed as 7.5-point home underdogs with a over/under line of 63-points. These lines imply a final score of 35-28 with the Knights winning. Returning Starters Are a Huge Asset for the JacketsThe Jackets return nine offensive and 10 defensive starters. The biggest story coming out of last week’s win is all about the superior play of freshman quarterback Curtis Sims, who became the first-ever freshman QB to win a season opener and is the first fresh to start at Georgia Tech since Reggie Ball did in the 2003 season. He performed more like an experienced senior throwing for 277 passing yards on 24 completions, which is the highest since 2003. So, with all five offensive linemen back Sims will get solid protection and run blocking from this experienced unit and that is a major advantage for the Jackets in this matchup. The defense is an even bigger story for the Jackets having held the Seminoles to just 307 total yards and 3.8 yards-per-play. The unit also forced three turnovers with their aggressive hard-hitting play. Linebacker Quez Jackson had an interception and led the team with nine tackles including 7 solo tackles. One fumble was forced and recovered by LB David Curry, who also had seven total tackles including four solo ones. The second fumble was recovered by defensive lineman Djimon Brooks, who also had three total tackles. There were three additional fumbles forced, but the Seminoles managed to recover them. In case you wanted to know, the most fumbles the Seminoles have had in a game is 7 and fumbles lost is 4 in all games played since 1990. The Jacket defense played with a disciplined focus and were never caught out of position throughout the entire game. Head Coach Geoff Collins knows this is a solid recipe to contain the UCF juggernaut offense. A 76% ATS Betting System Supports the JacketsThis betting system has earned an amazing 59-25 against-the-spread (ATS) record for 76% winning tickets over the last 30 seasons. The system instructs us to be on home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing an opponent in the first four weeks of the season that won their last three games of the previous season. The key to this game and for the Jackets to cover the spread is to keep UCF from scoring more than 28 points and not get into a shooting match with them. In past games, in which the Jacks and their opponent both score 27 or more points they have gone a dismal 1-9 ATS for 10% winning bets. The 28-point level is a pivot point for the majority of NCAAF teams and not just for this matchup. So, the projections call for the Jackets to score 27 or more points and have at least 5 more first downs than the Knights. In games played in which the Jackets scored 27 or more points and had more than 5 first downs than their opponent has seen them go on to record a 49-4 SU record and 40-11 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10.3 points. Take the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets plus the points as a Best Bet Upset Alert. |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Boston College +5.5 v. Duke | Top | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
Duke vs Boston College September 19, 2020, 12:00 PM EST
Here is a solid betting system that supports BC and has earned an 86-34 ATS record good for 71% winning bets spanning the last five seasons. The system instructs us to bet against any team after being outgained by 125 total yards in their previous game and with an inexperienced QB in the first four weeks of the regular season. If the play against team (Duke) is a home favorite the system improves to 36-11 for 77% ATS winning bets. The machine learning models project that BC will rush for at least 250 rushing yards and average at least 5.0 yards-per-rush. In past games in which BC met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 21-3 SU record and a 20-4 ATS record that covers the spread by an average of 10.3 points. If BC was installed as an underdog they have posted a 7-2 SU record and 9-0 ATS mark covering by an average of 16.3 points. |
|||||||
09-18-20 | Nuggets +7 v. Lakers | Top | 114-126 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Denver Nuggets vs LA Lakers 9:00 PM EST, September 18, 2020
|
|||||||
09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 101 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Cincinnati vs Cleveland 8:20 PM EST, September 17, 2020
Here is a betting system that supports the Bengals and has earned a solid 103-52 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets since 1990 and instructs us to plat on road underdogs facing a conference foe that had a losing record in their previous season. This system has recorded a nice money-making 13-4 ATS record over the last three seasons and 26-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The machine learning tools are projecting that the Bengals will gain at least 125 rushing yards and average at least 7 yards-per-pass attempt. In past games in which the Bengals have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 52-15-1 SU record for 78% wins and 49-17-2 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2000. The Browns are 2-29-1 SU and 8-24 ATS for 25% when they have allowed an opponent to meet or exceed those performance measures in games played since 2010. |
|||||||
09-17-20 | Heat +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
iami Heat vs Boston Celtics September 17, 2020, 7:00 PM EST
Here is a solid betting system that supports the Heat and has earned a 73-40 SU record using the Money Line over the last five seasons. This system instructs us to be on any team in a game where they and the opponent have won 60 to 75% of their games on the season and with the opponent coming off a game where the total went ‘OVER’ by 18 or more points. The machine learning models project that the Heat will make 77% or more of their free throw attempts, score at least 105 points, and make at least 10 3-point shots. In past games when installed as a dog and meeting or exceeding these performance measures the Heat have earned a 21-8 ATS record for 72% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 9 points. |
|||||||
09-16-20 | Rangers +192 v. Astros | Top | 1-0 | Win | 192 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Texas vs Houston 8:10 PM EST, September 16, 2020
Gibson will be on the hill for the Rangers and expecting a quality start from him. In his starts this season he has thrown more two-seem fastballs than in previous seasons. He has excellent sinking action on this pitch that generates more whiffs and ground ball outs than the MLB average. His slider is used to keep batters honest. He will mix in a change to left-handed batters that averages 85 MPH and is 8 MPH slower than his fastball. His slider has above average depth and glove side movement that causes RH batters to lunge and swing over the top of this pitch. He has above average ‘stuff’. The machine learning tools are projecting that Gibson will complete more innings than McCullers of the Astros. The Rangers are 61-48 making the $100 bettor more than $3,900 when installed as a road dog and their starter completes more innings than the host’s starting pitcher. The Bonus 7-Star DOG bet is on the Washington Nationals with Austin Voth on the hill facing the Tampa Bay Rays and are approx. 160 dogs right now. I recommend a 3-Star parlay using the Rangers and the Nationals that has strong risk-reward potential. |
|||||||
09-16-20 | Nationals +162 v. Rays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 162 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Texas vs Houston 8:10 PM EST, September 16, 2020
Gibson will be on the hill for the Rangers and expecting a quality start from him. In his starts this season he has thrown more two-seem fastballs than in previous seasons. He has excellent sinking action on this pitch that generates more whiffs and ground ball outs than the MLB average. His slider is used to keep batters honest. He will mix in a change to left-handed batters that averages 85 MPH and is 8 MPH slower than his fastball. His slider has above average depth and glove side movement that causes RH batters to lunge and swing over the top of this pitch. He has above average ‘stuff’. The machine learning tools are projecting that Gibson will complete more innings than McCullers of the Astros. The Rangers are 61-48 making the $100 bettor more than $3,900 when installed as a road dog and their starter completes more innings than the host’s starting pitcher. The Bonus 7-Star DOG bet is on the Washington Nationals with Austin Voth on the hill facing the Tampa Bay Rays and are approx. 160 dogs right now. I recommend a 3-Star parlay using the Rangers and the Nationals that has strong risk-reward potential. |
|||||||
09-15-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
Game 7 is Just Another Game
Denver Center and super star Nikola Jokic stated after their come from behind win that “To us, Game 7 is just another game”. That simple statement is completely accurate with the Nuggets having the confidence that they have what it takes to defeat the Clippers. Jokic had 34 pints, 14 boards, and seven assists in their 111-98 win that featured 11 straight defensive stops at one point in the second half. So, I did a simple query of my vast NBA database and learned that the Nuggets are 7-3 straight-up (SU) and 8-2 against-the-spread (ATS) in games following one in which Jokic scored 25 or more points and had at least 10 boards in a win installed as an underdog. The Clippers Have Never Been to the West FinalsThe Clippers were founded in 1970 and played as the Buffalo Braves and then moved to San Diego in 1978. Team owner Irv Levin sold the franchise to real estate developer David Sterling for $12.5 million. Sterling moved the team to Los Angeles in 1984 and then was forced to sell the franchise to former Microsoft founder Steve Balmer, who finally brought winning ways to the franchise for the first time. Still, the Clippers have never advanced to the Western Conference Finals sporting an 0-7 record in previous chances. Will Paul George Have Another Monster Game?The Clippers have strong support in winning Game 7 from the fact that they are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS for 73% winning bets following a game in which Paul George had 30 or more points; 3-0 ATS in the next game if coming off a loss installed as a favorite. Moreover, Clippers are 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS following game in which Paul George had a plus-minus rating of -10 or worse. So, you can see how team and player trends can many times work against one another when handicapping a game, but there is far more analysis yet to be seen. What About Teams that Lost Game 6?Not too much to sink our teeth into here, but it is an excellent question. Teams that were 3-1 and forced into a game 7 are 0-4 SU and ATS since 2014. The last series in which this occurred was the Nuggets coming back to defeat the Utah Jazz in Round 1. A 75% Betting System Supports the NuggetsNo team in NBA history has won back-to-back series are being down in the series 3-1. This NBA betting system has earned a 20-7-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons and instructs us to play on teams that were losing at the half by 5 or more points in each of their last three games. In playoffs games, this system has earned a 12-5-1 ATS record for 71% winning bets since 2013. Denver trailed by 16 points at the half in Game 6 and playoff teams, who then came from behind to win those games are 14-9 ATS for 61% in the next game. Teams that had at least a 16-point lead in a closeout playoff game are 1-4 ATS with the ‘UNDER’ going a perfect 5-0 in the next playoffs game. Now we are getting somewhere with the analysis. What Does the Machine Learning Have to Say?The machine learning tools project that the Nuggets will have a higher shooting percentage from the field than the Clippers, will shoot at least 39% from beyond the arc and make at least 12 shots from long range. Since 1995, the Nuggets are a remarkable 113-9 SU for 93% wins and 105-14-3 ATS for 88% winning bets when they have met or exceeded these performance measures. The Nuggets also sport a 46-4 SU anmd 40-8-2 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2017. Moreover, teams that have met or exceeded these performance measures in Games 6 or 7 are 9-3 SU for 75% wins and 10-2 ATS for 83% winning bets. Take the Nuggets plus the points and for them to be the first-ever NBA team to win back-to-back payoff series after trailing 3-1 in each of them. |
|||||||
09-14-20 | Dodgers -130 v. Padres | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs LA Dodgers September 14, 2020, 9:10 PM EST
Here is a solid betting system that supports the Dodgers and veteran ace Clayton Kershaw and has earned a 28-13 SU record good for 68% winning bets and a 27% ROI over the last 10 seasons. The system instructs us to be on NL favorites, whose bullpen threw more than 8 innings in the previous game and has a solid starter on the hill sporting a season to date ERA of 3.70 or lower. Lamet is just 0-12 (-12.2 Units) against the money line facing teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs-per-game on the season. Take the Dodgers boxed with Kershaw. |
|||||||
09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants +6 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs Ny Giants 7:15 PM EST, September 14, 2020
Ny Giants tackle Nate Solder opted out of the season and there are three new offensive lineman set to start tonight. They are elite athletes and have excellent skills in first round draft pick Andrew Thomas 6-5 315 from Georgia, RT Cam Fleming 6-6 320 from Stanford, and center Nick Gates 6-5 307 from Nebraska. I do believe this youthful OL has the athleticism and quickness to contain the Steeler defensive front and open up holes for Barkley to dart through untouched. Once Barkley gets into the open field he is extremely difficult to bring down by any defensive unit. This will then open up play action pass plays catching the Steelers in man coverage or in Sam-Will blitz schemes. From the machine learning tools and models the Giants are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards, have more first downs than the Steelers, and have more total offensive yards than the Steelers. In past games in which the Giants have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a solid 89-16 SU record and 85-20 ATS for 81% winning bets since 1990; 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS since 2015. The Steelers are 3-3-1 SU and 1-6 ATS the spread failing to cover by an average of 8 points when their opponent has gained 125 or more rushing yards and are installed as road favorites since 2015. |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs LA Rams 8:20PM EST, September 13, 2020 From the machine learning tools, the Rams are projected to score at least 27 points, average more than 7 yards-per-pass attempt, and gain 400 or more total offensive yards. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these three performance measures they are 48-20 ATS and 62-9 SU winning the game by an average of 12 points; 28-10-2 ATS when in home games and an amazing 12-1-1 ATS mark and covering the spread by an average of 11.5 points. |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Packers +2.5 v. Vikings | Top | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM EST, September 13, 2020
Green Bay won both meetings against the Vikings and have many favorable matchups on both sides of the ball. From the machine learning tools and models the Packers are projected to outgain the Vikings on the ground and have a better, more efficient yards-per-points ratio. In other words, the Packers will need fewer yards gained to score a single point on average. In past games in which the Packers met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a perfect 29-0 ATS record and covered the spread by an average of 15.6 points. Take the Packers as a 7-Star Upset Alert Titan |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Seahawks v. Falcons +1.5 | Top | 38-25 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons September 12, 2020, 1:00 PM EST Kickoff - 1:00 PM EST, September 13, 2020 The Mercedes-Benz Stadium is one of the best venues in all of sports but will remain without fans for at least the first two home games of the Atlanta Flacons schedule. The Atlanta offense has always been dangerous for most opponents and will be better this season having added running back Todd Gurley through free agency and TE Hayden Hurst, who was acquired in a trade with Baltimore. The Falcons Running Game is Much BetterThe Falcons running game ranked 30th in the NFL gaining just 1,361 rushing yards as compared to a league average of 1806 rushing yards. Further, the Falcons ranked 29th in the NFL with just 332 rushing attempts. They went 1-7 over the first eight games and fell behind early in games forcing them to abandon most or all the run plays. When an NFL team is behind in a game, especially by two or more scores, play action gets no respect from a defense and is simply a worthless formation. Gurley has been banged up physically over his career, but still provides a new and real run threat for all defenses to respect. His presence will provide more opportunities to use play action pass routes, which is where the addition of Hurst and his above average speed will be a huge asset this season. Falcons Matt Ryan Will Be Better ProtectedThe running game fell into the statistical abyss for the Falcons, which put tremendous pressure on Matt Ryan to complete difficult passes and sustain scoring drives. The Falcons through the most passes in the NFL with a number no one really likes 666 throws form scrimmage. The Cincinnati Bengals were a distant second with 617 pass attempts and by comparison the terrific Baltimore Ravens offense that led the league in scoring ranked last with 439 pass attempts. So, the Falcons can expect a much better balance of run and pass plays making it far more difficult for defensive coordinators to prepare to defend. Matt Ryan threw just 24 passes that were targeted down the deep middle of the field. The Tampa Bay Bucs ranked first with 37 throws in this category by way of comparison. With the addition of Hurst at TE and his speed it is a sure bet you will see the middle of the field exploited by the Falcons whenever they can get Hurst in man coverage by a linebacker. The Falcons ranked 17th in the NFL running 113 pass plays using play action and gained 827 yards from those plays. By comparison, Jared Goff and the Rams ran 194 play action plays and gained a league-best 1,564 passing yards. Gurley was part of that offense. What About the Team Trends?Well, there are gaggles of them of ocurse being spit out of my vast NFL database that can go back to 1980 if it provides meaningful results. Coach Carroll is just 3-14 ATS in games played in September since being hired by the Seahawks; 2-10 ATS in road games that have occurred in the first two weeks of the season. The Falcons are a stout 19-6 ATS in home games that occurred in the first two weeks of the season. Moreover, they are 4-0 ATS as home dogs in the first two weeks of the season spanning the last 10 seasons. How About Those Machine Learning Metrics We Love?The Falcons are projected to execute at least 25 rushing plays, average at least 4.5 rushing-yards-per-attempt and attain a yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 11.5 in this matchup. The Falcons are 48-8 SU and 37-15-4 ATS for 71% winning bets in home games when they have averaged a minimum of 4.5 RYPA and executed at least 25 rushing plays. When they have achieved the rushing metrics and had a YPPT ratio of not more than 11.5, the Falcons have earned a perfect 16-0 ATS mark covering the number by an average of 12 points. The Seahawks when traveling on the road are a near imperfect 1-10 SU and ATS and failing to cover the spread by an average of 15 points when they have allowed an opponent to rush the ball for a minimum of 25 attempts, gaining average of 4.5 RYPA, and allow an opponent YPPT ratio of 11.5 or lower. R |
|||||||
09-12-20 | Western Kentucky +12.5 v. Louisville | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Western Kentucky vs Louisville 8:00 PM EST, September 12, 2020
The Cardinals offense also has returning quarterback Micale Cunningham, who is a red-shirt junior and a duel run-pass threat. He has gained 979 rusing yards with 11 touchdowns and passed for 2,538 yards on 62% completions with 23 touchdowns, and 6 picks over his last two seasons. Despite these impressive stats, I see the offense struggling against a very fast and disciplined Hilltopper defensive unit. In order to contain a duel threat QB it is imperative for the defense to maintain their individual gap areas and not over react to Cunningham’s ball fakes – and the unit will do a great job. From the machine learning tools and models the Hilltoppers are projected to gain an average of at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt and contain Louisville to fewer than 28 points. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 33-11-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 10 points. In 2018, they had Louisville on the ropes leading 14-6 starting the fourth quarter, before Louisville scored 14 points in the fourth to win 20-17. WKU was a 21 point underdog and they did exceed the performance measures mentioned above. |
|||||||
09-12-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ouston Rockets vs LA Lakers September 12, 2020, 8:00 PM EST The Rockets are a 6.5-point underdog and the projections do show a decent probability that they may win this game. So, as a suggestion, I like splitting this 10-star amount into two parts consisting of a 7-star amount using the line and then a 3-Star amount using the money line. This strategy will provide significant additions to the bottom line over the course of a season. I know this is a bold call, but it is based on the ‘Math’ and the ML models. The Rockets find themselves in a great spot for this game and a shocking – to the media and public at least – win over the Lakers. They are 11-2 ATS after two consecutive games in which they were outrebounded by 10 or more boards this season. The machine learning projections also show that playoffs teams that were out rebounded by 8 or more boards in a previous game loss and average at least 115 points on the season are 11-5 ATS for 71% winning bets. The projections also call for the Rockets top score at least 115 points and will make at least 40% from 3-point land. Playoff teams coming off a loss and then scoring 115 or more points and shooting 40% or better from beyond the arc are an amazing 86-9 ATS for 91% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. |
|||||||
09-11-20 | Celtics -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors 9:00 PM EST, September 11, 2020
From the machine learning tools and models the Celtics are projected to have the better assists-to-turnover ratio, will make 79% or more of their free throw attempts, and score at least 105 points. In past playoff games in which the Celtics met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 9-1 SU and ATS record and covering the spread by an average of 9 points. |
|||||||
09-11-20 | Angels +123 v. Rockies | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
LA Angels vs Colorado Rockies September 11, 2020, 8:40 PM EST Angels have good success when facing NL teams. In fact, they are 68-34 when facing a NL team that is allowing an average of at least 4.5 runs-per-game. Griffin Canning will be on the mound for the Angels and he is pitching much better than his stats would indicate right now. Rockies start German Marquez, who has not done well at Coors field and sports a 1-3 record with a lofty 7.03 ERA and a 1.644 WHIP in four starts. Rockies bullpen is a mess sporting a 6.87 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 43 games and an 8.70 ERA and 1.783 WHIP in 21 home games this season. |
|||||||
09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
2020 NFL season Week 1
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs 8:20 PM EST Thursday, September 10, 2020 John Ryan founder of John Ryan Sports @johnryansports1 10-Star Titan on the KC Chiefs The NFL season starts this Thursday with the defending Super Bowl 54 Champion Chiefs hosting the AFC South Divisional Champion Houston Texans. This is also a rematch of last year’s Chiefs 51-31 win over the Texans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. In that game the Chiefs were installed as 10-point home favorites and the game total line was 51 points. In Week 1, the Chiefs are favored by an identical 10-point betting line and the total has creeped up to 55 points. Do Defending Super Bowl Champs have a Celebration Hangover in Week 1?No all defending Super Bowl Champions have started the following season with a home game. There have been 16 SB Champions, who have started the season with a home celebration and are 14-2 straight-up (SU), 11-4-1 against-the-spread (ATS), and near-even 7-8-1 ‘OVER’ record. Since 2002, this is the first time that a reigning Champion has been installed as a double-digit favorite. Reigning Champions installed as favorites are 12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS, and 8-6 ‘UNDER’ in Week 1 and when favored by four or more points sport an impressive 9-1 SU record, 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets, and 6-4 tilt to the ‘UNDER’. So, no hangover whatsoever for the home fed reigning Champions. The news remains positive for the reigning champions as they sport a 12-2 SU record, 9-4-1 ATS, and 7-6-1’ UNDER’ record when facing a playoff team from last season in Week 1. Opponents in Week 1 that were a previous season playoff team and facing a reigning Champion that is not in their division are a money-burning 2-14 SU, 4-11-1 ATS for 27% winning bets, and an 8-7-1 ‘OVER’ record in Week 1. Can the Chiefs Offense Match the 2019 Season?This offense is unstoppable when Reid’s play calling is clicking with this offensive sets. The Chiefs ranked 5th averaging 28.2 points-per-game with 30 receiving touchdowns, 16 rushing touchdowns, and 1 kickoff return for touchdown. They led the NFL making 34 field goal attempts on 38 tries and reflects the Chiefs struggles at times in the red zone. In their games, the Chiefs just knew that putting points on the scoreboard despite failed red zone conversions, was the recipe to win games. The Chiefs will average more points-per-game this season just by cutting down their field goal attempts in the red zone to 25. NFL Drive Averages in 2019The Chiefs ranked second in the NFL scoring on 49.4% of all drives and averaging 2.62 points-per-drive with the Baltimore Ravens ranking first and scoring points on 52% of their drives and averaging 2.62 points-per-drive. The Chiefs ranked fourth-best in the NFL taking care of the football and had a turnover on only 8% of their drives. Can the Houston Texans Defense Stop the Chiefs Offense?The Chiefs offense is designed to maximize yards-after-the-catch (YAC) much ion the way the San Francisco 49ers West Coast offense was designed and the same West Coast scheme Reid ran while the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. The number one Texans defensive weakness was ranking 30th in the NFL allowing 2,067 YAC. So, double digit favorites that have averaged at least 11 yards-per-completion spanning their last eight games and facing an opponent, who made the playoffs last season and allowed at least 375 points in their previous season are a solid 72-54-2 ATS for 57% winning bets and 116-12 SU for 90% wins and winning these games by an average of 15.1 points-per-game. Last, if this game takes place on a Thursday night, the double-digit favorites are 6-0 SU winning by an average of 16.5 points and 5-0-1 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 7.77 points. A Machine Learning Method that Produces Winning ResultsThere are more than 200 separate parameters in my NFL database and many of my machine learning tools combine many of these parameters that work well together in identifying ATS winners. These types of advanced mathematical applications are applied in the same way in many other industries, for instance, the Life Sciences and Biotech sectors. The combinatorial algorithms, for instance, will look to combine a combination of parameters (column names) that serve to optimize total return-on-investment (ROI) exactly in the same manner that I use them in stock market projections. Yards-Per-Drive Has Strong Predictive ValueFor this matchup, the Chiefs are projected to average at least 3.1 points-per-drive in this game against the Texans. The Chiefs are 17-5 SU and 17-5 ATS for 78% winning bets when they have met or exceeded a 3.1 points-per-drive ratio in games played over the last three seasons. Further, when installed as a home favorite and averaging a minimum of 3.1 points-per-drive ratio they are a resounding 9-1 SU winning by an average of 16 points and 8-2 ATS for 80% and covering the spread by an average of 11.1 points. Moreover, the Chiefs are projected to score 27 or more points and outgain the Texans by at least 80 yards. In past games where the Chiefs have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 64-3 SU record winning the games by an average of 19.6 points and a 61-4-2 ATS record good for 94% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 15.8 points. By knowing these projections, you will find yourself watching the game and monitoring their progress. I also provide situational trends at the end of each quarter that can also serve to provide even more money-making betting opportunities that have proven track records. |
|||||||
09-09-20 | Rockies +166 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres September 9, 2020, 8:10 PM EST Here is a solid proven betting system that has earned a LOSING record 83-106 for 44% winning bets, BUT has made the $1000 bettor a $38,240 profit since the start of the 2004 season and instructs us to bet on home favorites of -150 and greater (more negative) that are coming off a solid win of 6 or more runs and facing an opponent that was involved in a game in which 17 or more runs were scored. Truly, this is a terrific example of the power of the dog and betting dogs, like this one, that make big profits over the course of a season- not one single night or even one single week. The Padres are just 20-54 when facing a NL starting pitcher with solid control sporting a 1.150 WHIP or lower in games played over the last three seasons. Rockies are 18-9 in road games when coming off a game with a combined score of 15 or more runs in games played over the last three seasons. |
|||||||
09-09-20 | Raptors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Toronto Raptors bs Boston Celtics 6:30 PM EST, September 9, 2020
The Raptors are also 28-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last six games in games played over the last two seasons. From the machine learning tools the Raptors are projected to score a minimum of 111 points and get 12 to 16 offensive rebounds, and have a TO differential of not more or less than 3 of the opponent. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone to earn a 60-14 straight-up (SU) record and 52-21-1 ASTS mark for 721.2% winning bets and the ‘OVER’ is 64-10 for 87% winning bets. So, play a 7-Star amount on Toronto plus the points and a 5-Star amount on the ‘OVER’. Then as an optional consideration place a reverse action parlay Toronto with the points and the ‘OVER’ which pays 4:1. |
|||||||
09-08-20 | Heat -4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks 6:30 PM EST, September 8, 2020
The Bucks are just 6-15 ATS in games facing good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots this season. From the machine learning tools the Heat are 133-24 ATS for 85% winning bets when scoring 106 or more points, making 78% or more of their free throw attempts and have had the better assists-to-turnover ratio. So, watch for these metrics in tonight’s game. |
|||||||
09-07-20 | Astros v. A's -126 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs Oakland A’s September 7, 2020, 9:10 PM EST From the machine learning tools the Athletics are an amazing 129-32 for 80% winning bets making the Dime Player $83,320 over the last 16 seasons and $7,975 L2 seasons when their starter has throw as many or more innings than the opponents’ starter and had 1 or 2 multiple run scoring innings as a home favorite and facing a team with a winning record on the season. Here is a solid proven betting system that has earned a solid 58-19 record for 75% winning bets and has made the $100 bettor a $3,363 profit over the last 5 seasons and instructs us to bet on an AL home team that is batting 0.260 or lower on the seasons and is coming off three straight games allowing 7 runs in each of the three games. |
|||||||
09-07-20 | Rays +111 v. Nationals | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Natinals 6:05 PM EST, September 7, 2020
In addition, a look ahead situation favors betting against the home favorite when the road team has a win percentage of 55 or higher on the season. The Rays will have Charlie Morton on the hill and after a slow start to the season he has found his ‘ace’ form. Over his last three starts he has posted a 1.86 ERA and a 1.241 WHIP and the Rays have won all three of these starts. Nations Max Scherzer is not pitching well and has struggled in nearly all of his starts this season. Rays offense is solid top to bottom and they will get to Scherzer early and often in this matchup. From the machine learning tools the Rays are 52-21 for 71% making $4,312 per $100 bet and a nice 59% ROI, 42-10 for 81% using the Run Line and making $2,502 per $100 wagered and a solid 29% ROI when they have been a dog of not higher than 150, their starter completed more innings than the opponent’s starter, had 1 or 2 multiple run innings, and scored in at least three innings. |
|||||||
09-06-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -124 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners 8:00 PM EST, September 5, 2020
Texas is a horrible 2-14 against the money line in road games facing teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game this season. Seattle is a solid 14-1 in home games facing a team that is being outscored by at least 1 run-per-game on the season and in each of the last two seasons. |
|||||||
09-06-20 | Bucks -105 v. Heat | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat September 6, 2020, 3:30 PM EST From the machine learning tools the Bucks are projected to make at least 80% of their free-throw attempts, score 115 or more points and hold the Heat to 38% or less 3-point shooting. When the Bucks have met or exceeded these projections they have earned a 58-7-2 ATS mark good for 89% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 10.4 points. Here is a solid proven betting system that has earned a solid 56-25 record good for 69% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and instructs us to be on any team in a game where the line is within 3 points on either side of pick-em and is facing an opponent that has covered the spread in at least consecutive games and is playing their fifth game in the last 14 days. |
|||||||
09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis -18.5 | Top | 24-37 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Arkansas State vs Memphis Tigers 8:00 PM EST, September 5, 2020
I wrote about the immense value of returning starters on offense, especially when four or five of the previous season’s starting offensive line returns for this season. Memphis has this in place to start their season and it will pay them handsome dividends over the first four weeks of the season. From the machine learning tools, Memphis is projected to average at least 9.0 yards-per-pass-play and out-gain Arkansas State by at least 200 yards. In past games in which Memphis met or exceeded these projections they have gone on to earn a 13-1 ATS record for 93% winning bets that has also covered the spread by an average of 20.5 points. |
|||||||
09-05-20 | SMU v. Texas State +24 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
SMU Mustangs vs Texas State September 5, 2020, 4:30 PM EST From the machine learning tools and projections Texas State is projected to pass for 75 fewer yards than SMU will pass for and that SMU will NOT exceed 31 or more points. In past Texas State games where this pair of measures were met or exceeded they are 19-10 ATS for 66% winning bets; 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets when installed as a double digit dog. If you do like teasers, consider a 6-point teaser adding 6-points to the current total and adding 6-points to the current line. This makes the total about 72.5/73 points playing ‘UNDER’ and the T-State a 29/30-poit underdog. SMU has not done well in games expected to be high scoring and are 0-7 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last three seasons. |
|||||||
09-04-20 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 222.5 | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 52 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1 Milwaukee vs Miami 6:30 PM EST, September 3, 2020 From the machine learning tools the Heat are 40-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season. The Bucks are 34-8 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season. Here is a betting system that has earned a solid 47-22 ‘OVER’ record for 68% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and instructs us to bet ‘OVER’ with any team in a game that has a total of 210 or more points and is on a 6 or more game win streak and has played just five games in the past 14 days. |
|||||||
09-03-20 | South Alabama +15 v. Southern Miss | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
The South Alabama Jaguars, who are members in the West Division of the Sun Belt Conference will travel to take on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles, who are members of the West Division of the 14-team Conference-USA. The Eagles find themselves installed as double-digit home favorites against the Jaguars, who won just two games last season. The Value of Returning Starters for the EaglesDuring the first four weeks of the NCAA Football season knowing the teams that have the majority of starters returning from last season is a major advantage when facing a team that is re-building form the previous year. There are exceptions like the Top-5 programs in the country, who simply see their players move on to the NFL and then plug-and-play with new 5-Star recruits. The Eagles return 14 total starters with eight on offense including quarterback Jack Abraham and six on defense. Abraham had a solid 2019 season completing 68% of his pass attempts for 3,496 yards including 19 touchdowns. He did throw 15 interceptions, but that number of mistakes will drop given he has another full season of expereince under his belt. Even more important than having the starting quarterback returning is the number of starters returning from the offensive line. The Eagles have four of the five offensive linemen back this season. The offensive line is the unit that requires the greatest amount of coordinated technique and chemistry. Having 4 or 5 starters returning on the offensive line provides the foundation for the entire offense to be even more efficient than they were at the end of the previous season. The Value of Returning Starters for the Jaguars The 2019 season saw the Jaguars go a horrid 2-10, but they did earn respectable 7-5 against-the-spread (ATS) record. Head Coach Steve Campbell is just 5-19 straight up and 13-11 ATS in his first two seasons but has a 13 returning starters with seven on offense including quarterback Desmond Trotter and six on defense. The defense is returning the top-5 tacklers and gives reason for the defensive unit to be significantly better in 2020. The Jaguars ranked fifth in the Sun Belt Conference allowing an averaging of 409 offensive yards-per-game, sixth allowing 192 rushing yards-per-game, and fourth allowing 217 passing yards-per-game. Having the best defensive players returning that accounted for 65% of last season’s production is key as are the seven starters returning on offense that accounted for 73% of last season’s total production. The Betting Public and Irrational ExuberanceI key handicapping method is to track the percentage of wagers being made and the total amounts of money those betting tickets add up to. In this game 78% of all bets being made are on the Eagles resulting in 22% of bets in support of the Jaguars. The line for this game opened with the Eagles favored by 14 points and despite having a 3:1 margin in bets made on them, the line has dropped to 13.5 points. The half-point decline in the line is a mall amount, but it is far more meaningful when the overwhelming number of bets are on the dog. This implies that the large bettors, so-called Wise Guys, are on the Jaguars and their combined money of their bets is offsetting the small public bets. What Does the Machine Learning Tools Have to Say?As the season rolls on you will notices that there is a pivot point in scoring that when exceeded favors that team and works against their opponent. Such is the case in this matchup as the Eagles are 171-28-1 straight-up (SU) for 86% wins and 131-41-3 ATS for 76.2% winning bets when they score 28 or more points in games played since 1980; 49-16 SU for 75% wins and 45-19-1 ATS for 70.3% winning bets since 2010; 16-2 SU for 89% wins and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets over the last three seasons. The Jaguars are a money-burning 8-54 SU for 13% wins and 21-39-2 ATS for 35% winning bets when they have allowed 28 or more points since 2011; 3-23 SU for 12% wins and 10-15 ATS for 40% winning bets over the last three seasons. There is more though, then just using 28 points as a pivot to determine a betting opportunity. The machine learning summary shows that the Jaguars are just 1-7 SU for 13% wins, but 7-1 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring at least 24 points and are installed as a double-digit road underdog. The Eagles are 9-9 SU for 50% wins and 4-14 ATS for just 22% winning bets installed as a double-digit home favorite and allowing that opponent to score at least 24 points. |
|||||||
09-02-20 | Thunder +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets
9:00 PM EST, September 2, 2020
Here is a money line betting system that has earned a strong 48-24 record for 67% winning bets and instructs to play on teams using the money line in a playoff game that with a win closes out the series and is a team winning between 60 and 75% of their games on the season. From the machine learning tools the Thunder are 35-18 ATS for 67% winning bets and 38-15 SU when they have scored 111 or more points and had 13 to 17 turnovers in games played since 2017; perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in playoff games. Moreover, the Thunder are 33-5 SU and 27-11 ATS for 71% winning bets when shooting between 45 and 48% form the field and have had the better assists-to-turnover ratio. |
|||||||
09-01-20 | Jazz +1 v. Nuggets | Top | 78-80 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets
8:30 PM EST, September 1, 2020
The Nuggets are just 5-18 ATS after a win by 10 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. From the machine learning tools the Jazz are projected to make at least 48% of all of their shot attempts and make 15 or more free throws, and score at least 111 points. IN past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a robust 202-51-11 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2004; 44-13-5 ATS for 78% winning bets over the last three seasons; 9-2 ATS in playoffs games since 2008 and covering the spread by an average of 11 points. |
|||||||
08-31-20 | Braves -185 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox
7:30 PM EST, 08-31-20 (Monday)
Boston’s team pitching staff is one of the worst ever in the history of their storied franchise this season sporting a horrific 6.04 ERA that ranks dead last in MLB. The Braves bullpen ranks 13th and has a vastly better team ERA of 4.36 on the season. Here is where the second betting system comes into vogue and has earned a 100-27 record for 79% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and instructs us to bet on road favorites of at least -125 and has an excellent bullpen posting an ERA of 3.33 or lower on the seasons and is facing a struggling AL team batting 0.260 or less and has a terrible bullpen whose ERA is at least 5.00 on the season. The Braves will have arguably the best left-handed starting pitcher on the hill tonight in Max Fried, who is a perfect 5-0 in 7 starts with a 1.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, allowing no home runs spanning 40 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2-0 record with 1 no-decision and a skimpy 1.04 ERA and 1.096 WHIP spanning 17 1/3 innings of work. The Red Sox will send Colton Brewer to the hill and he has struggled to put it mildly. He is 0-2 in 3 starts with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.838 WHIP in just 10 1/3 innings of work. |
|||||||
08-31-20 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | Top | 115-104 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks August 31, 2020 6:30 Game 1, Round 2 Eastern Conference Here is a betting system that has earned a 37-12-1ATS record for 76% winning over the last 5 seasons. The system instructs us to be on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that has covered the spread in three or more consecutive games and has a win percentage between 60 and 75% on the season. The record is 12-3 ATS for 80% winners when the game is in the playoffs; 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets in all rounds after the first round since 2011. From the machine learning tools and projections the Bucks are 39-5-1 ATS when the have scored 111 or more points, made 79% or more of their free throw attempts, and held their opponent to less than 38% 3-point shooting since 2015. Over the last 10 seasons, no. 1 seeds that have met or exceeded these performance measures have earned a 161-42-3 ATS record covering the spread by an average of 9 points for 79% winning bets. |
|||||||
08-30-20 | Avalanche -130 v. Stars | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars August 30, 2020 6:00 Game 4, Edmonton, Alberta Here is a betting system that has earned a 25-5 record for 83% winning bets and earning a whopping 50% return-on-investment (ROI) over the last 10 seasons. The system instructs us to be on favorites up to but not over -150 and is a team that has seen at least their last 6 games go ‘OVER’ the posted total. |
|||||||
08-30-20 | Indians v. Cardinals +111 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 111 | 2 h 42 m | Show |
Cleveland Indians vs St. Louis Cardinals
2:15 PM EST, 08-30-20 (Sunday)
Vivale is a bright youg pitcher that has the potential to be a star in the Majors. Over his last three starts he has compiled a 3.43 ERA with a 1.048 WHIP, averaging 7 innings-per-star, and has allowed just 2 walks while striking out 17 batters. The veteran Adam Wainwright has been wrokgin his way back to his dominating form and has posted a 3.32 ERA with a 1.053 WHIP and is coming off B2B starts completing 7 innings in each. Over the last 7 games, the Indians, who are batting an anemic 0.224 with a 0.318 OBP have suddenly batted 0.291 with a 0.368 OBP. Generally, teams that exceed their mean performance measures by this large amount have a high propensity to revert back towards their mean and going up against the veteran Wainwright is the perfect situation for the Cardinals. Cardinals skipper Shildt is a solid 42-24 using the money line when his team has batted 0.225 or worse over their last 5 games. From the Machine learning tools, the Cardinals are 65-16 for 80.2% winning bets, making 4,014 per $100 wager and earning a robust 31% ROI when Wainwright completes 7 or more innings of work and the team is on a 2 or more game losing streak. |
|||||||
08-29-20 | Thunder +5 v. Rockets | Top | 80-114 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets
9:00 PM EST, 08-29-20 (Saturday)
The Thunder are 8-1 ATS after 2 straight games attempting 10 or more free throws than opponent this season. The Rockets averaged just a fraction more 3-point shot attempts then 2-point shot attempts this season. Their 2-point to 3-point shot attempt ratio has gone even further into extreme levels in this matchup. They are averaging 90 shot attempts per game, which is right on their regular season average, but are averaging an incredible 54 3-point shot attempts and just 36.8 2-point shot attempts. Since 2018, the Rockets are just 1-7 ATS for 12.5% and losing to the spread by an average of 12.2 points when they have attempted more 3’s than 2’s and the opponent made 8 or more free throws. |
|||||||
08-29-20 | Rays v. Marlins -114 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins August 26, 6:10 PM EST Here is a betting system that has earned a 34-9 record good for 79% winners and instructs us to play on home teams with a money line ranging between a 125 dog and -125 favorite facing a good AL offensive opponent scoring an average of 4.9 RPG and are coming off three consecutive wins of 2 runs or less. |
|||||||
08-25-20 | Jazz -2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets
6:30 PM EST, 08-25-20 (Tuesday)
Denver is just 13-25 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last two seasons. From the machine learning tools, the Jazz are 50-9 ATS for 85% winners when scoring 112 or more points and having the better, more efficient ATS ratio in regular season and playoff games since 2017; 4-0 ATS and covering by an average of 20 points in playoff games since 2017. Take the Utah Jazz as a 7-Star Titan Best Bet, 5-Star bets Bet ‘UNDER’ and 3-star reverse parlay on the Jazz and ‘UNDER’. |
|||||||
08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -147 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars 9:45 PM EST, August 24, 2020 Here is a time-tested and quite profitable NHL betting system that has earned an 83-57 record averaging a +124 dog wager over the last five NHL seasons and instructs us to bet on any team using the money line after a loss by 2 or more goals and is now facing an opponent that scored at least five goals in their last two games. The betting system has earned $4,175 wagering just $100 and produced an Return-on-investment of 29%. When the game has been in the playoffs the record has been 8-5 and earning a 33% ROI. |
|||||||
08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 217 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat August 24, 6:30 PM EST The NBA database queries reveal several supporting situational betting systems that have all earned high winning percentages. This betting system has earned a solid 47-19 ‘OVER’ record for 72% winning tickets and instructs us to bet the ‘OVER’ with any team in a game with a total between 210 and 219.5 after scoring 120 points in their last game and with the opponent coming off a game where 235 points were scored and each team playing the current game with 1-day of rest each; and when these games have been playoffs games, the ‘OVER’ is 16-4 for 80% wins and have gone over the total by an average of 12 points. |
|||||||
08-24-20 | Rockets -2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
Houston Rockets vs. OKC Thunder
4:00 PM EST, 08-24-20 (Monday)
The Rockets need to and are expected to improve their 3-point shooting. If they do not then this series will be won by the Thunder and this bet may prove to be a losing one. The Rockets in the playoffs are attempting an average of 53 3-point shots per game and making just 18 of them for a 34% rate. The Rockets, though, are making 57% of their 2-point shots, but are attempting an average of 28 shots per game. Narrowing the spread between 3-point and 2-point attempts will go a long way to seeing the Rockets win this game. Combined with the fact that they are taking much better care of the ball sporting a 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio as compared to the Thunder’s 1.26 ATS will more than offset any anomalies by the Thunder. From the machine learning tools, the Rockets are 191-45-7 for 81% winners when scoring 114 or more points and having the better, more efficient ATS ratio in regular season and playoff games; 10-1 ATS for 91% and covering by an average of 14 points in playoff games. Take the Houston Rockets as as a 7-Star Titan Best Bet |
|||||||
08-23-20 | Raptors -12.5 v. Nets | Top | 150-122 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets
6:30 PM EST, 08-23-20
From the machine learning tools the Raptors are projected to score at least 111 points and have fewer turnovers. In ast games when the Raptors have accomplished or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 152-69 ATS amrk good for 69% ATS winners. In playoffs games the Raptors have earned a near-perfect 9-1 ATS mark and have covered the spread by an average of 12.8 points. Take the Toronto Raptors as a 7-Star Titan Best Bet |
|||||||
08-23-20 | Rockies +216 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
Colorado Rockies vs LA Dodgers 4:10 PM EST, August 23, 2020 Here is one of the best MLB betting systems you will see and has recorded a 25-18 mark averaging a 220 dog bet and making $3,755 in profits per $100 bet. The betting system instructs us to be on road underdogs of +200 and higher that are coming off a one-run loss to a divisional foe and are starting a pitcher that allowed one or no earned runs in this last start. The line is inflated given the white hotness of the Dodgers, who have won 10 of their last 11 games and are facing an ice-cold Rockies team, who have lost 9 of their last 10 games. The Rockies will start Antonio Senzatela, who is 3-0 with a sparkling 2.90 ERA and a 1.032 WHIP spanning 31 innings of work with 5 walks and 24 strikeouts. In his last start against the Astros he completed 8 strong innings allowing 3 hits, zero walks, with 6 strikeouts. I love this ‘unknown’ starter because he knows how to get batters out and getting him at this price is a great opportunity. |
|||||||
08-23-20 | Celtics v. 76ers +8 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
hiladelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics August 23, 1:00 PM EST The NBA database queries reveal several supporting situational betting systems that have all earned high winning percentages. This one has earned a 63-32 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. The betting query instructs us to bet on underdogs that have a winning record on the season and playing an opponent with a higher win percentage, that the opponent has been favored in their last three games and have won all three of these games ATS spanning games played since 2015. The 76ers have been a resilient team in 2019 and have earned a solid 31-18 ATS mark after habving lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games ATS; 20-7 ATS for 74% while sporting a 3-game or more ATS losing streak spanning games played over the last three seasons. The 76ers shot 29.5% from the field and were 2-points behind the Celtics with under 1:45 left in the game. The public is all over the Celtics and is a logical choice to bet, but logic many times does not translate to ATS winning bet. Rumors are swirling that the ‘Trust the Process’ is a broken model and this team will be broken up starting with the firing of head coach Brett Brown. I ask you this. Would the team played with the heart and ‘guts’ they did in Game-3 and if they did not like their head coach? Would they have actually shown improvement on both ends of the court (Tatem in Game-3 was minimized) if they hated their head coach? 76ers are 14-6 ATS when coming off a game where they shot 33% or less form the field. |
|||||||
08-22-20 | Lakers v. Blazers UNDER 224.5 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Portland Trailblazers vs LA Lakers
Let sus tart with a highly successful betting system that has earned a 41-19 ‘UNDER’ record for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. The betting system query instructs us to bet the ‘UNDER’ with a 200 or higher total and after the team has gone under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games and is facing an opponent that went under the total by at least 24 points in their previous game. Obviously, this system applies to both the Trailblazers and the Lakers. When the system is active in a playoff game the ‘UNDER’ has gone 15-5 for 75% winning bets. From the machine learning tools, the Lakers are 18-5 ‘UNDER’ when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game this season; 11-1 ‘UNDER’ when shooting 43 to 47% form the field and scoring 60% of their points in the paint. |
|||||||
08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +3 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Houston Rockets vs OKC Thunder 6:00 PM EST, August 22, 2020 The conversations surrounding this matchup have centered on several shooting stats from the regular season and specifically how the Rockets shot just 23% from beyond the arc against the Thunder and that Harden and Eroc Gorden combined for a horrid 14% in those games. However, the first two games have had no similarities to the regular season results as Houston shot 39% from 3-point area and Harden and Gorden shot 42% combined. Then in Game-2 the Rockets shot just 33% from distance and Harden/Gorden went 2-21 for 10% makes and the Rockets still found a way to win the game. So, the Rockets have earned their way to a 2-0 series lead and have put the Thunder’s back against the wall. The Thunder are a stout 22-9 ATS for 71% in games lined between -3 and +3 this season. Thunder are 18-9 ATS for 67% installed as a DOG and having lost 3 or 4 of their last 4 games ATS in games played since 2016; 4-0 ATS when a playoffs game. The machine learning tools project the Thunder to score at least 114 points and are 7-1 ATS this season when doing so. The Thunder are 16-3 ATS for 84% winning bets when scoring at least 114 points and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio. |
|||||||
08-22-20 | Bucks v. Magic +12.5 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic August 21, 1:30 PM EST No.1 seeds in the NBA playoffs tied at 1-game each in Round-1 are just 2-6 SU and 2-6 ATS. Magic are coming off their worst shooting game of the 2019 season hitting just 34% from the field and they are projected to bounce back with a great effort this afternoon. The Magic have nothing to lose and are ‘supposed to lose’ and matched the Bucks point-for-point in the second-half of Game-2. From the machine learning tools the Magic are an amazing 123-14 ATS for 90% winning bets when they have scored at least 112 points and shot at least 49% from the field and at least 39% from beyond the arc; 8-0 ATS in playoff games covering the spread by an average of 17 points! |
|||||||
08-21-20 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 217 | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
Boston vs Philadelphia
6:30 PM EST, 08-21-20
Embiid must not take 3-point shots as I tweeted in Game 2. When he takes more than THREE 3-pointers the 76ers record is terrible and when he takes 3 or fewer their record is quite good. That stat is not random either. When Embiid wants to post or use the block to score easy two foot shots and dunks it opens up the perimeter. The point is that supports the ‘UNDER’ is that Tatem must be contained tonight fi the 76ers have any faint hopes of making this a series. Here is an outstanding betting system that has earned a 42-18 record for 70% winners over the last five seasons. The system query instructs us to play ‘UNDER’ with any team after beating the spread by 42 or more points spanning their last seven games and has earned a win percentage between 60 and 75% on the season and is facing an opponent with a win percentage between 51 and 60%. 19-10 ‘UNDER’ for 66% winners in the playoffs since 2007. Take the 76ers + Celtics to play ‘UNDER’ as a 7-Star Titan Best Bet |
|||||||
08-20-20 | Blazers +6 v. Lakers | Top | 88-111 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 49 m | Show |
Portland Trailblazers vs LA Lakers Lakers have lost six straight to the number and in case you were wanting to know, No-1 seeds that have lost at least 6 consecutive games to the spread are a money burning 18-25 ATS for 42%. Most amateur bettors will presume that a team as ‘good as the Lakers’ will bounce back with a monster effort and easy ATS winning ticket. I mentioned in the Game-1 winner on Portland that the Lakers would be in a flux having not played any of the eight bubble games with any starting lineups and a mish mash of personnel. The Trailblazers are an excellent ball handling team and the Lakers are just 2-13 ATS when facing a solid ball handling team averaging no more than 14 TOPG this season. From the machine learning tools the Trailblazers are an amazing 102-17-6 ATS for 86% winning bets when they have scored at least 111 points and shot at least 49% from the field and at least 39% from beyond the arc; 188-39-4 ATS in playoff games for the No-8 seed! |
|||||||
08-20-20 | Rangers +178 v. Padres | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers
I will start with a few team specific trends. The Rangers are a solid 42-20 (+34.9 Units) when facing an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season. Twins starter Lamet (team record) is just 1-8 (-9.4 units) in home games when facing teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times-per-game in games played over the last two seasons. Rangers starter Kyle Gibson has an excellent arm starting with a lively 93-94 MPH fastball with heavy sinking action and major arm-side tailing movement that averages more than 8 inches. This tailing action is brutal on RH batters and results in an abundance of whiffs and weakly hit ground balls. His slider has far less movement, but is hard to pick up and results in lazy fly ball outs. As is the case with every pitcher when the pitches get up in the zone or waist-high and middle-in part of the plate he will get hit hammered. Batters are hitting just 0.173 on the slider since the start of the 2019 season. The Machine learning tools project that Gibson will complete more innings than Lamet. The Rangers are 181-74 for 71% as a road dog averaging +127 wager and has made $15,404 per $100 bet since 2004 and a robust 60% return-on-investment (ROI). |