College Football Free Picks - Winning College Football Picks Against the Spread

John Ryan NCAA-F Top Sides Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-04-10	Florida State +4 v. Virginia Tech	Top	33-44	Loss	-105	22 h 60 m	Show
25* graded play on Florida State as they take on Virginia tech set to start at 7:45 and are playing for the ACC Championship and the automatic BCS bid to the Orange Bowl. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that FSU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game. Looking at the specific matchups this game there is one situation that will have a significant affect on the winner of the game. The winner of this game will be the one that runs the ball the best and keeps their quarterback to a minimum number of third and long situations. I think FSU quarterback Christian Ponder is playing his best football of his career and did an incredible job assaulting a very strong Florida secondary in their last win. Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster will certainly show Ponder varying looks and disguise the real coverage. Ponder has struggled at times when his first option is taken away and then is forced to check down. However, I do not see the first option being taken away all that much given the superior speed, quickness, and athleticism of the Seminole receivers. Ponder must be smart with the first read and execute accordingly. Hokie quarterback Taylor will make big plays in his own right and the battle to watch involves the Seminole defensive ends Markus White and Brandon Jenkins going up against the Hokies tackles Blake DeChristopher and Andrew Lanier. I give a significant edge to White and Jenkins and they will keep Taylor from stepping up in the pocket. He has done a great job making the hot reads and not getting quick feet and has executed a high number of passes under duress. The Seminoles may use a linebacker to
11-27-10	Michigan State v. Penn State +1.5	Top	28-22	Loss	-110	3 h 39 m	Show
15* graded play on Penn State as they host Michigan State set to start at High Noon ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Penn State will win this game. MSU off an emotionally tiring win Michigan State had to use a 22 point fourth quarter to come back and defeat a highly suspect and inconsistent Purdue offensive team. I am concerned that the Spartans now have doubts about how good they are and entering Happy Valley is about as intimidating as any venue in the nation. Penn State is off a strong win last week and are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last home game of the year off a 17 or more point win. Matt McGloin The National Ranks are very misleading regarding the present abilities and strengths of Penn State. They rank 58th in passing gaining 223.9 yards per game and 71st in rushing gaining 148.2 yards per game. They struggled early on and as a result have an 81st ranking in points scored at 24.8 points per game. However, head coach Paterno made a quarterback switch to Matt McGloin and he has done exceptionally well posting a 148.39 passer rating and completing 60% of his passes for 1,205 yards, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. With McGloin under center Penn State is averaging 33 points per game and have won four of the last five games. He was 22-for-31 and 315 yards and two touchdowns in last week
11-26-10	Auburn +4 v. Alabama	Top	28-27	Win	100	29 h 20 m	Show
25* graded play onAuburn. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than four points. This is the 75th annual Iron Bowl game pitting No.2 Auburn (11-0, 7-0 SEC) traveling to Tuscaloosa to take on the defending BCS Champs Alabama (9-2), 5-2 SEC). The weather will be perfect with abundance sunshine and a high temperature of 52 degrees near game time. This game is more than just state bragging rights and advantages for future recruiting efforts. This year
11-25-10	Texas A&M v. Texas +3.5	Top	24-17	Loss	-105	12 h 10 m	Show
25* graded play on Texas as they host Texas A&M set to start at 8 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Consider splitting this 25* bet into two parts with 20* on the line and 5* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 76-34 ATS for 69% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and is a good offensive team scoring between 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG after 7th game of the regular season. Here is a second system that has gone 29-8 ATS since 2000 for 78.4% winners since 2000. Play on a home team that are average rushing teams gaining 3.5 to 4.3 yards per rush and now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing 3 to 3.5 yards per rushing after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. Texas
11-20-10	Nebraska v. Texas A&M +3	Top	6-9	Win	100	23 h 39 m	Show
15* graded play on Texas A&M as they host Nebraska in a huge Big 12 showdown set to start at 8:00 EST and will be televised by ABC and seen on the internet by ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will win this game. The Aggies Jerrod Johnson was the conference
11-20-10	Purdue +20 v. Michigan State	Top	31-35	Win	100	15 h 15 m	Show
25* graded play on Purdue as they take on Michigan State set to start at Noon EST. My proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Purdue will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Purdue is on a four game skid and most of their troubles has been turning the ball over far too many times. However, that is about to change in this game and Purdue is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992. The Purdue offense has been struggling to score points, but again the reason they are not scoring is due to turnovers and not an inability to move the football. Purdue is a dominant running team ranking 40th nationally gaining 168.3 yards per game. As a result, they are just 115th in passing gaining 136.8 yards per game. The part of this game I like the most is the Purdue defense and their abilities to pressure the quarterback. They lead the conference with 31 sacks and Ryan Kerrigan has 11 1/2 sacks on the season. He leads that category by 4 sacks over Northwestern
11-18-10	UCLA Bruins +2.5 v. Washington Huskies	Top	7-24	Loss	-110	12 h 50 m	Show
10* graded play on UCLA as they take to the road to face Pac-10 foe Washington set to start at 8 PM ET and will be televised by ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game. Obvious that UCLA will run the ball since that is what their offensive game plan has been all season. They rank 27th nationally gaining 194.4 rushing yards per game and 116th gaining just 120.8 passing yards per game. No doubt they will be extremely successful running the ball and the simulator shows a very high probability that they will gain a minimum of 200 rushing yards and a minimum of 350 total offensive yards. UCLA is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 22-4 ATS (+17.6 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards since 1992. Washington is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 18-8 making 28.2 units since 2000. Play against a home team using the money line and after gaining 225 or less total yards per game over their last 2 games and with 8 defensive starters returning. The average play has been a +200 DOG. Take UCLA.
11-16-10	Ohio v. Temple -7.5	Top	31-23	Loss	-110	9 h 36 m	Show
10* graded play on Temple as they take on Ohio University set to start at 7 PM ET. This is a mammoth game for both programs and the result will have far reaching effects in determining the Mid-American Champion. Temple (8-2, 5-1 MAC) hosts Ohio (7-3), 5-1 MAC) and the winner will have a strong opportunity to travel to Detroit later this month for the MAC Championship game, but there is a far more complex situation brewing in the MAC East Division. MAC playoff Scenarios Temple, Ohio, and Miami of Ohio (6-4, 5-1 MAC) are all tied right now in the MAC East Division. Miami
11-13-10	Nevada v. Fresno State Bulldogs +9	Top	35-34	Win	100	13 h 32 m	Show
15* graded play on Fresno State as they take on Nevada set to start at 10:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Fresno State will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and also has a reasonable shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-17 ATS for 71% winners since 1992. Play on a home team using the money line that is an average rushing team gaining between140 and 190 rushing yards per game facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing 100-140 rushing yards per game and after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Here is an amazing system that has gone 29-2 making 27.6 units in profits since 1992. Play on a home team using the money line and is a good offensive team gaining 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play against a poor defense allowing 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play and after 7+ games and after outgaining previous opponent by 125 or more total yards. Freso head coach Hill is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. Take Fresno State.
11-13-10	Penn State Nittany Lions +19 v. Ohio State Buckeyes	Top	14-38	Loss	-110	6 h 57 m	Show
25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Ohio State set to start at 3;30 EST and will be televised by ABC/ESPN/ESPN3. Just too many points and my neural network based simulator shows a high probability that Penn State will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Penn State got head coach Joe Paterno
11-11-10	Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +6.5	Top	28-30	Win	100	4 h 59 m	Show
15* graded play on Connecticut as they take on Pittsburgh set to start at 7:30 EST Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a strong opportunity to win SU. The Huskies have had a rough season culminating with the dismissal of their starting quarterback Cody Entres for disciplinary reasons and the search for a solid replacement. They had Michael Box start in a 26-0 loss to Louisville and he clearly was not ready for that opportunity and was overwhelmed. Zach Frazer has demonstrated that he is ready to make the most of this opportunity with a surprising 16-13 OT win against West Virginia. Despite the inconsistencies that have dominated the Huskie squad all year, the emergence of Frazer makes them a very dangerous team for any visiting opponent to face. Still, stopping the Panther running game will be a monumental task for the Huskies, who are allowing 164 rushing yards per game. The Huskie defense has played it
11-09-10	Toledo Rockets +11 v. Northern Illinois	Top	30-65	Loss	-105	7 h 53 m	Show
15* graded play on Toledo as they take on Northern Illinois in a very important game in the MAC. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 143-117 using the money line and has made 68.2 units since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line off a double digit road win with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Both teams enter this game with identical 5-0 MAC records and the pressure is squarely on Northern Illinois and they are expected to win this game and take control of the MAC West division. This is the game they need to win to achieve that with only road games against far weaker opponents in Ball State and Eastern Michigan left on the schedule. Toledo is in the same situation. Toledo has not played for more than a week and has had ample preparation time. In addition, it is not a completely negative situation having lost starting quarterback Austin Dantin to a season ending shoulder injury they have an excellent freshman in Tarrance Owens, In the last game he threw for 234 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-7 win over Eastern Michigan. He will be able to grind out long scoring drives against the NI defense and has poise far beyond his years. Take Toledo.
11-06-10	Hawaii Warriors +21.5 v. Boise State	Top	7-42	Loss	-110	6 h 17 m	Show
15* graded play on Hawaii as they take on Boise State set to start at 3:30 EST. This game will be televised by ESPN 3D, ESPNU, and ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Hawaii will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Hawaii comes in with the No. 1 passing offense in the nation gaining 395.4 yards per game. The offense is led by a very confident QB Bryant Monizis, who is not the elite prototype QB in terms of size, but has tremendous athleticism, a very quick release and a strong arm. This combinations makes him dangerous in their run-and-shoot offense. Boise State DC Kwiatkowski has had the luxury of playing straight defense and uses three safeties in his nickel package. Knowing that the the offense would score a ton of points allows the defense to sit back in their cover-2 and simply not allow the big play. Things will be far different in this game as the Hawaii defense is designed to throw short routes that are intended for yards after the catch. I have yet to see Boise be forced to make tackles in space and Hawaii has a stable of very quick and elusive receivers. Last week, Boise gave up a season high 172 rushing yards to Louisiana Tech last week. Their were failed assignments all over the defensive front and Hawaii can exploit that with draws and delays to Alex Green, who is strong enough to pound the ball between the tackles and quick enough to make the first defender miss. I fully expect Green to get to the second level on numerous running plays and this only compounds the problems on defense for Boise. Hawaii is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Take Hawaii
11-06-10	Minnesota Golden Gophers +24.5 v. Michigan State	Top	8-31	Win	100	4 h 34 m	Show
15* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Michigan State set to start at Noon EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. The loss to Iowa ended all National Title hopes for Michigan State, who were on a five game against the spread winning streak. Minnesota has lost three straight against the spread and a big reason why is they have committed seven turnovers to just four take aways in those games. These turnovers only provide an opposition for a short field to score points and is a significant element to their 105th national rank allowing 34.1 points per game. The Gophers have gone through a gauntlet of difficult situations including the firing of their head coach, Tim Brewster, after a 28-17 loss to Purdue October 16. Offensive coordinator Jeff Horton is now the head coach and he has had to make difficult decisions even this week. Defensive tackle and captain, Brandon Kirksey, has been suspended for undisclosed reason. In addition, he has been forced to suspend defensive back Michael Carter and defensive lineman Ra
11-04-10	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +13 v. Virginia Tech Hokies	Top	21-28	Win	100	8 h 42 m	Show
15* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Virginia Tech set to start on ESPN at 8:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. Adding a 2* amount on the money line if available is a very attractive bet. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-14 ATS for 72% winners since 2005. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points and is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing 4.3 to 4.8 YPR. GT runs the triple option and are the best rushing team in the country gaining 317.4 rushing yards per game. My simulator shows a very high probability that they will rush for a minimum of 250 yards in this game. Note that GT 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards since 1992. Take Georgia Tech
11-04-10	Buffalo Bulls +16 v. Ohio Bobcats	Top	17-34	Loss	-110	10 h 55 m	Show
15* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Ohio University set to start at 7:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 104-50 for 68% winners since 2000. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and now facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Ohio has a solid running game and then uses the passing game to keep defenses honest. However, Buffalo is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games facing good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo runs a more balanced offensive attack and I do strongly believe that Buffalo will establish the running game against Ohio. Note that Ohio is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. The biggest factor not evident in their overall records is that Buffalo has played a far more difficult schedule then Ohio and this
11-02-10	Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders -1.5 v. Arkansas State Red Wolves	Top	24-51	Loss	-110	9 h 6 m	Show
15* graded play Middle Tennessee State. The technical side of this game supports Middle Tennessee State. Here is a system that has produced a 35-11 ATS record for 76% winners since 2005. Play against all teams in November where the line is +3 to -3 after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. Game Situations As mentioned above, I feel strongly that Middle Tennessee State will have a huge night on offense and there is a very high probability that they will eclipse the 28 points scored mark. Note that in past games where they have scored or exceeded 28 points scored they have posted an 11-1 ATS mark. Arkansas State has posted a 3-12 ATS mark when allowing 28 or more points in past games spanning the last three seasons. Both teams make a ton of mistakes as evidenced by their respective penalty yards, but it is Arkansas State that fails to capitalize on those mistakes. Many times they have made numerous
10-30-10	Utah Utes v. Air Force Falcons +7	Top	28-23	Win	100	22 h 38 m	Show
15* graded play on Air Force as they host (8) Utah set to start at 7:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Air Force will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game. I had Utah as a big 10* winner last week, but this is a very tough matchup for them taking to the road to play a vastly under rated Air Force Squad. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-8 ATS for 80% winners since 2005. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game and now facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. Here is a second system supporting the upset bid and has produced a 24-7 record making 20.4 units since 2005. Play on a home team using the money line with an excellent offense averaging 6.1 or more yards per play and after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game. Utah head coach Wittingham is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of UTAH. Air Force head coach Calhoun is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road. Air Force.
10-30-10	Stanford Cardinal v. Washington Huskies +7.5	Top	41-0	Loss	-110	22 h 32 m	Show
25* graded play on Washington as they host (13) Stanford set to start at 7:00 EST and will be televised by Versus. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than seven points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. An alternative wager to consider is place a 20* amount on the line and a 5* on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 ATS for 80% winners since 2005. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 or fewer points last game and is now facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. Washington lost week at Arizona by the score of 44-14 and were six point dogs in that game. Stanford was home defeating Washington State last week and failed to cover as 37 point favorites. Here is a money line system that has produced a 118-46 mark for 72% winners and has made 49.7 units since 1992. Play on a home team using the money line and is a good rushing team gaining 4.3 to 4.8 yards per rush and facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing 4.3 to 4.8 yards per rush. As an optional wager place an extra 5* amount on Washington using the first half line. This play is reinforced by a perfect 9-0 against the first half line in home games facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better since 1992. This game features two of the best quarterbacks in the PAC-10 and the nation. Stanford
10-30-10	Auburn Tigers -7 v. Mississippi Rebels	Top	51-31	Win	100	9 h 30 m	Show
15* graded play on Auburn as they take on Mississippi set to start at 6 EST and will be televised on ESPN2. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by eight or more points. Auburn has rushed for more than 300 yards in their last three games. Auburn is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game over the last two seasons. There is no doubt the Auburn will dominate the line of scrimmage and wear down the Rebel defensive front. The Rebels have an excellent nose tackle in 320 pound Jerrell Powel, but he and his teammates need to do more than just hold their ground. Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn
10-29-10	West Virginia Mountaineers v. Connecticut Huskies +6.5	Top	13-16	Win	100	9 h 17 m	Show
15* graded play on Connecticut as they host West Virginia in a Big East showdown set to start at 8 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Connecticut will lose this game by fewer than six points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Problems on the offensive line The West Virginia offensive line was largely the blame for the 19-14 loss to Syracuse, who were 13 1/2 point dogs. The failed miserably to even identify zone blitzes leading to forced throws and three interceptions by Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith. Syracuse also used delay blitzes effectively and again the offensive line failed to protect Smith. Connecticut Defense is a Major Key Connecticut has a far stronger and more athletic defense than Syracuse and defensive coordinator Todd Orlando will use the Syracuse template as the foundation of his defensive scheme. I do not see how West Virginia can correct all the fundamental offensive line flaws and then to restore unity on that unit in just one week of practices. Moreover, Geno Smith is coming off his worst performance of the season and the early Connecticut pressure may crack his confidence with immediate negative results. West Virginia is a defense first type of team and it shows in their national rankings. The Mountaineers rank fifth allowing 13.3 points per game. Their offensive rankings are rather pedestrian noting they are 61st overall in passing yards gaining 220.3 yards per game, 74th in rushing yards gaining 142.9 yards per game, and 69th points scored at 26.1 per game. The Huskies will Run the Ball Well The Connecticut Huskies running game will be a major factor in this game and they must be successful early to open up the offense through the play action pass to extend and spread the Mountaineer defense. The Huskies rank 33rd in rushing yards gaining 183.7 yards per game, 102nd in passing yards gaining 163.4 yards per game, and 60th in points scored at 28.1 per game. The Connecticut defense is solid and rank 48th in points allowed at 22.6 points per game. Game within the Game West Virginia runs a somewhat rare 3-3-5 defensive scheme featuring three safeties. Attacking this scheme with the power running game will be quite effective and may force West Virginia to move to a modified 3-4 to stop the run. If this should occur then it will open up the ball control pass plays in the flats for Connecticut. So, this will be an interesting chess match to watch unfold throughout the game. Box expected to start Freshman Michael Box is projected to start tonight for Connecticut. The 6
10-16-10	Arkansas Razorbacks v. Auburn Tigers -3.5	Top	43-65	Win	100	8 h 55 m	Show
25* graded play on Auburn as they host Arkansas set to start at 3:30 EST and will be televised by CBS. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by more than four points. No.7 Auburn host No. 14 Arkansas and their Heisman trophy hopeful Ryan Mallet in this big time SEC showdown. Auburn has won three of it
10-14-10	South Florida Bulls +10.5 v. West Virginia Mountaineers	Top	6-20	Loss	-110	11 h 17 m	Show
15* graded play on South Florida as they take on West Virginia set to start at 7:30 and will be televised by ESPN and available on ESPN3. Add an optional 2* amount on the money line. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that SF will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. South Florida has had WVU
10-13-10	Central Florida v. Marshall +6	Top	35-14	Loss	-115	24 h 34 m	Show
15* graded play on Marshall as the take on University of Central Florida. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-12 ATS for 76% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games facing an opponent after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. UCF head coach O
10-09-10	Utah Utes v. Iowa State Cyclones +6	Top	68-27	Loss	-105	10 h 32 m	Show
25* graded play on Iowa State as they host (10) Utah set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Iowa State will lose this game by fewer than six points and has a tremendous opportunity to win the game. This is the first time that Utah has faced a Big-12 foe since 2004 and after this game they want to go another six seasons not playing a Big-12 opponent. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-15 for 74% winners since 1992. Play on a home team off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home dog in weeks 5 through 9. Here is a MONEY LINE system supporting my expectation for an upset win and has produced a 31-6 record for 84% winners since 1992. Don
10-08-10	Connecticut Huskies v. Rutgers Scarlet Knights +5.5	Top	24-27	Win	100	7 h 19 m	Show
15* graded play on Rutgers as they host UCONN set to start at 7:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN and ESPN3 on the internet. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than five points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-8 ATS for 79% winners since 2005. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. Since being the head coach of Rutgers, Schiano has posted an 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after having lost two out of their last three games; 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) facing good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. Supporting the upset bid is a money line system that has gone 59-28 and has made 37.3 units since 2000. Play on a home team using the money line off an upset loss as a favorite and with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Rutgers is off a horrid loss to Tulane 17-14 and were installed as 17 point favorites. Practice sessions this week involved some very upset coaches and Rutgers will play very well tonight on a national stage. *As an alternative play consider making tow bets with a 11 on the line and a 4* using the generous money line.** Take Rutgers.
10-05-10	Troy v. Middle Tenn State -3	Top	42-13	Loss	-110	30 h 13 m	Show
(Tuesday) 10* graded play on Middle Tennessee State (MTS) as they host Roy set to start at 8 EST Tuesday on ESPN2 and can be seen on ESPN3 as well. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that MTS will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-10 ATS for 77% winners since 2000. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a conference matchup that are excellent offensive teams scoring >=34 points per game and now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG. The simulator also shows a high probability that MTS will score more than 28 points. Note that in past games they are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last two seasons. They are also 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last two seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last two seasons. MTS is off a very strong conference win defeating LA-Lafayette 34-14 as two point favorites. Note that since Stockstill was hired as the head coach of MTS he is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. The crowd will be up for this game since it is on ESPN2 and the students are advising everyone to wear
10-02-10	Florida Gators +8.5 v. Alabama Crimson Tide	Top	6-31	Loss	-110	11 h 34 m	Show
15* graded play on Florida as they take on Alabama in a big showdown of top ranked teams. Florida comes in to this road game ranked number-7 while Alabama is ranked best team in the land. That may all change here based on my research. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Florida will lose this game by fewer than eight points and has a reasonable opportunity to win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 70-30 for 70% winners since 2000. Play against home favorites off 2 consecutive road wins in weeks 5 through 9. Here is a money line system supporting the upset Gator bid that has produced a 42-14 mark for 75% winners since 2005. Play on a road team versus the money line off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and is undefeated on the season. I also see this being a high scoring game and one that Florida will score more than 28 points. Note that this is a very pivotal number for both teams noting Alabama is just 7-34 against the money line (-49.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 41-8 against the money line (+26.0 Units) in road games when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Florida is also 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 10+ points per game on the season over the last three seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. Perhaps the most important angle is this one that shows how Meyer prepares his team when in the role of an underdog. He is an astounding 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1992. It will be the Florida offense that will shine big in this game in my opinion. I like the Gator version of the Wildcat using Trey Burton, who scored five touchdowns in last week
10-02-10	Michigan v. Indiana +10	Top	42-35	Win	100	7 h 54 m	Show
15* graded play on Indiana as they take on Michigan set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Indiana will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Both teams start their Big-10 conference schedule undefeated and this game is going to be far closer than most expect. Michigan
10-02-10	Ohio State v. Illinois +17	Top	24-13	Win	100	14 h 31 m	Show
25* graded play on Illinois as they take Ohio State set to start at Noon EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Illinois will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Ohio State travels to Champagne, Illinois, where they have not lost since 1991, to start their conference season. The Buckeyes are off to a strong 4-0 start covering all four games and all four playing
10-01-10	BYU v. Utah State +4.5	Top	16-31	Win	100	8 h 49 m	Show
15* graded play on Utah State as they host BYU set to start Friday night starting at 8 EST and will be televised on ESPN and can be viewed on the internet at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Utah State will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Utah State has a big advantage on offense returning eight starters including their quarterback. This experience and leadership matches up very well against a BYU defense returning just five starters. Utah State will establish the run and the model shows that they will gain more than 150 yards on the ground. Note that in past games BYU is just 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards since 1992. BYU is also just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) facing mistake prone teams getting called for 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after having lost three out of their last four games over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-14 using the MONEY LINE and has made 29.6 units since 2005. Play on a home team using the money line after one or more consecutive losses against the spread and in a game involving two bad teams winning between 25% to 40% of their games. Take Utah State.
09-30-10	Texas A&M +3 v. Oklahoma State	Top	35-38	Push	0	25 h 2 m	Show
25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Oklahoma State set to start at 7:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent opportunity to win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 ATS for 80% winners since 1992. Play on any team after allowing 275 or less total yards in two consecutive games and with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Texas A&M returns nine on defense while Oklahoma State returns just four starters. A&M also returns seven offensive starters including the quarterback and this leader and experience is a huge advantage going up against an inexperienced Oklahoma State secondary. Since Gundy became the head coach of the Cowboys he is just 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=3.25 rushing yards per carry. Here is a money line system that has produced an excellent record of 23-6 making 21.7 units for 79% winners since 2005. Play on a road team versus the money line with a good passing defense allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in three straight games. Oklahoma State leads the nation in yards per game and has the No.1 receiver in Justin Blackmon and NO. 3 passer in Brandon Weedan, BUT this team nearly lost to Troy 41-38. Texas A&M brings a vastly under rated defense to this game and they will shut down the running game. This in turn takes away the option for play action pass and to get Blackmon in favorable man coverage situations. I do not see A&M needing to bring the safety to the line of scrimmage for run support. Let
09-25-10	Oregon Ducks v. Arizona State Sun Devils +11.5	Top	42-31	Win	100	13 h 58 m	Show
15* graded play on Arizona State as they host (5) Oregon set to start at 10:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that ASU will lose this game by 11 or fewer points and also has a reasonable shot at the upset of number 5 ranked Oregon. ASU head coach Erickson is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games versus good rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992; 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 20-8 for 71% winners against the money line making 22.4 units since 2005. Play against a road team versus the money line after allowing 3.25 or less yards per play in their previous game and with eight defensive starters returning. Here is another money line system that has produced a 21-8 record for 72.4% winners since 2000. Play against a road team in September using the money line after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite. ASu quarter Threet is 6-5 and he has a very quick release and will completely neutralize the speed advantage that oregon has on the defensive perimeter. If Oregon brings pressure then Threet can easily throw to the flat to hit a RB or a better option is to hit Aaron Pflugrad in space or defended by a slower linebacker. The ASU tackles can make certain they have inside protection and give a shove outward to the defensive ends. Draw plays will have huge lanes with which to scoot through. ASU can win this game. Take ASU with the points.
09-25-10	UCLA +16.5 v. Texas	Top	34-12	Win	100	7 h 21 m	Show
25* graded play on UCLA as they take on Texas set to start at 3:30 EST and will be televised on ABC TV and seen on in the internet at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. Texas may have put up good numbers last week against Texas Tech, but they are going to have their hands full with UCLA and head ocah Neuheisel
09-24-10	TCU Horned Frogs v. SMU Mustangs +17.5	Top	41-24	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
20* graded play on SMU as they take on TCU set to start at 8 EST Friday. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 63-29 for 69% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites that are excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards per carry and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in two straight games. SMU has played a tough schedule in their first three games and this prepares them well to compete against number 4 TCU. SMU HC Jones is a near perfect 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. SMU will run the ball successfully and this in turn will setup solid play action pass opportunities down the seams. SMU quarterback Kyle Padron is a vastly under rated and executed extremely well against Washington State last week. TCU is going to have problems defending the run and WR Aldrick Robinson. TCU runs a somewhat rare 4-2-5 defensive scheme using three safeties. They are aggressive and will show multiple looks to confuse Padron. The read he needs to make to is to identify where free safety Jejay Johnson is lined up. If he is closing in towards the line of scrimmage for run support than Padron can look for crossing routes. If he is back, then a check off to a running play or attacking the perimeter with
09-23-10	Miami (Florida) v. Pittsburgh +4	Top	31-3	Loss	-110	22 h 23 m	Show
10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on Miami (Fla) set to start at 7:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a solid chance to win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 45-14 making 34.8 units and 76.3% winners since 2005. Play on a home teams on Thursday nights using the money line after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second money line system that has produced a 50-14 mark for 78.1% winners and has made 36.8 units since 2000. Play on a home team using the money line after out gaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and returning 5 or less offensive starters with a new starting QB in the first month of the season. Here is a third money line system that has gone 26-10 making 20.6 units for 72.2% winners since 2005. Play on a home teams in non conference games using the money line in a game involving two average passing teams gaining between 6.4-7.5 passing yards per attempt. The simulator also shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will score more than 28 points and this puts Miami in a horrid role. Miami is just 9-39 ATS (-33.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Take Pittsburgh.
09-18-10	Clemson Tigers v. Auburn Tigers -7	Top	24-27	Loss	-110	10 h 54 m	Show
15* graded play on Auburn as they host Clemson set to start at 7 EST and will be televised on ESPN and on the internet at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by more than seven points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-15 ATS for 73% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and are average passing teams gaining between 175 to 230 passing yards per game facing an average passing defense allowing 175 to 230 passing yards per game and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The most important matchup in this game is between Auburn quarterback Cameron Newton matched up against Clemson safety DeAndre McDaniel. At 6
09-18-10	Connecticut v. Temple +6	Top	16-30	Win	100	13 h 26 m	Show
15* graded play on Temple as they take on UCONN set to start at 1 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than five points and has an excellent shot at winning this game. if you like the upset bid consider splitting the bet into two parts with a 10* amount getting the points and a 5* amount on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-6 ATS for 82% winners since 2005. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. Since becoming the head coach of Temple, Golden is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a home underdog. Here is a money line system that has gone 38-5 for 88.4% winners making 33.2 units since 2000. Play on a home team versus the money line and is a good team from last season having outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning in games played during the first month of the season. Temple is a solid 7-1 against the money line (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons. Take the Owls.
09-18-10	Northern Illinois +7 v. Illinois	Top	22-28	Win	100	4 h 5 m	Show
15* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Illinois set to start at Noon EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Northern Illinois will lose this game by seven or fewer points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game. Consider an alternative wager splitting the 15* amount into two parts with a 11* getting the points and a 4* on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-7 ATS for 83.3% winners since 2000. Play against a home team that is a poor passing defense from last season allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse and with 5 offensive starters returning. Here is a second system that has gone 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with two or more straight losses and had a winning record last season. Illinois is coming off an easy 35-3 win over Southern Illinois and led by points 18 points at the half 21-3. Illinois is just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992.
09-17-10	California v. Nevada +3	Top	31-52	Win	100	12 h 54 m	Show
10* graded play on Nevada as they host California set to start at 10 EST and will televised on ESPN2 and can viewed on the interest at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Nevada will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a Money Line System that has produced a record of 38-5 making 33.2 units since 2000. Play on a home team versus the money line and is a good team from last season having outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game and with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Here is a second system that has gone 24-3 making 89% winners since 2005. Play on a home team versus the money line after out gaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game and with 9 or more offensive starters returning in the first month of the season. I also see Nevada gaining more than 200 yards in this game. California is just 4-15 against the money line (-15.7 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Take Nevada.
09-16-10	Cincinnati +2 v. North Carolina State	Top	19-30	Loss	-105	23 h 58 m	Show
25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on NC State set to start at 7:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN. It will also be viewable on the internet at ESPN's espn3 site. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game. Cincinnati has been somewhat inconsistent on offense so far this season. yet, last week they ran the bak very well against Indiana State. Indiana State is not of the caliber of NC State, but it game the offensive line the game reps it needed to really work into the game. There has been talk of the new faces on offense an a necessary adjustment period until they get up to full speed. They do, however, have three returning linemen, both running backs, two wide receivers, and a tight end. Junior quarter Zach Collaras will pick apart the NC State cover-2. I feel strongly that NC State will have to bring pressure and when they do Cincinnati will have excellent passing opportunities in man or
09-11-10	Michigan v. Notre Dame -3	Top	28-24	Loss	-115	6 h 12 m	Show
15* graded play on Notre Dame as they host Michigan set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Notre Dame will win this game by four or more points. Notre Dame has returned nine starters on defense and they will dominate this game. Michigan will have difficulty moving the ball consistently and executing long time consuming scoring drives. This game has the potential to be a blowout with Notre Dame gaining 250 more yards on offense than Michigan. The mode also projects that ND will pass for more than nine yards per attempt. Note that Michigan is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when they are out gained by their opponents by 2 or more yards per play since 1992. ND is a solid 29-8 ATS (+20.2 Units) when they out gain their opponents by 2 or more yards per play since 1992. The Michigan offensive line is slimmed down from last year and demonstrated last week that they are quick and focus on angle blocking in their game against Connecticut. However, the ND defense and in particular their linebackers have had time to prepare for the Michigan offense hat includes direct snap draw plays to Robinson. ND linebackers are physical enough to shed blockers and minimize angles to neutralize and trap Robinson at the Line of scrimmage. ND will shut this down. Take Notre Dame.
09-11-10	South Florida +16.5 v. Florida	Top	14-38	Loss	-110	18 h 42 m	Show
15* graded play on South Florida as they take on state rival Florida set to start at 12:20 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that South Florida will lose this game by fewer than 14 points and has an opportunity to pull off the improbable upset. If you like the upset idea then consider playing 12* amount on the line and a 3* amount on the money line. The Tim Tebow era is very hard to forget for Gator fans especially after one of the worst offensive displays last week against Miami of Ohio under head coach Urban Meyer. The Gators committed eight fumbles losing three of them and had gained 25 total yards offense with minus 16 rushing through the first three quarters. The negative rushing yardage was attributed to several extremely poor snaps from new starting center Mike Pouncey, who was moved to center after playing guard last season. He had one snap that was several feet over the head of new quarterback John Brantley. In addition, this offensive unit had just one starter, left guard James Wilson, in the same position he played season. The offense needs to improve quickly and correct all the mistakes from this past week. This is too much to ask when facing a rising intra-state rival in South Florida. If not for four interceptions including a 67 interception return for a touchdown the Florida game would have been far closer than the 34-12 final indicates. South Florida had a strong game last week, but is was against a FCS Stoney Brook team. They did start off slow trailing at one point 14-7, but then cleared the rust and got things rolling. They return 10 starters including their quarterback Daniels and that will certainly serve them well in this game and a Florida defense that has several weaknesses. Holtz is in his first season at South Florida and is a solid 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a dog in all games he has coached since 1992. If you are thinking possible upset and will want some action on the money line then check out this system that has gone just 45-110 for 29% winners, but has made an incredible 127.8 units since 2000. Play on dogs of +315 or higher versus the money line after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. The average play has been a DOG of +529 that has won 29% of the games. An amazing system and one that you can trust to make you more money as games qualify. Take South Florida.
09-10-10	West Virginia v. Marshall +13	Top	24-21	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
10* graded play on Marshall as they host West Virginia set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. The
09-06-10	Maryland v. Navy -6.5	Top	17-14	Loss	-110	21 h 21 m	Show
15* graded play on Navy as they take on Maryland set to start at 4 EST Monday. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Navy will win this game by seven or more points. Many returns eight including their starting QB from last year and this a significant advantage for them during the first several weeks of the season. Maryland struggled big tie on defense last season allowing 31 PPG and are returning just five defensive starters. I feel strongly that Navy, led by senior QB Ricky Dobbs, will be able to attack this highly suspect defense. Dobbs set a school record with 27 TD
09-05-10	SMU +14.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	27-35	Win	100	18 h 37 m	Show
10* graded play on SMU as they take on Texas tech set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. SMU returns eight starters on offense including the QB and that is a significant advantage in this game. The simple fact that they have played extensively together for a least one full season provides a chemistry and cohesiveness that allows for a strong form of play. Their QB Kyle Padron barely has two fully seasons of football experience and only got the opportunity to play due to an injury. He won win five of his six starts, finished fifth in the country in passer rating and set a new school record for passing yards in a single game while picking up MVP honors in the Mustangs' first bowl victory in 25 years. His leadership will be evident in this game and throughout the season. I see this game as potentially an upset winner too so consider splitting the wager between a 11* amount on the line and a 4* amount on the money line. This system has gone a perfect 5-0 over the past three seasons and has produced a 28-16 winning mark making 27.6 units since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line ion the first 2 weeks of the year after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Take SMU.
09-04-10	Washington State Cougars +17.5 v. Oklahoma State Cowboys	Top	17-65	Loss	-105	5 h 26 m	Show
15* graded play on Washington State as they take on Oklahoma State set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. WSU had a very poor 1-11 season in 2009, but this season is going to be far different. They return eight starters including the QB this season and just the fact that they have played together for an extended period of time is a big time advantage in the first several weeks of the season. They will be going against a rebuilding year for OSU, who returns just four starters on offense and four on defense. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 26-5 ATS for 84% winners since 1992. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points in the first month of the season that is an terrible offensive team from last season scoring 14 or less points per game and with an experienced QB returning as starter. Take Washington State
09-03-10	Arizona -16.5 v. Toledo	Top	41-2	Win	100	7 h 17 m	Show
10* graded play on Arizona as they take on Toldeo set to start at 8 ET Friday September 3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by more than 17 points. The most significant factor for this game is that Arizona returns eight starters on offense including the QB. That experience of playing together as a unit is invaluable during the first several weeks of the CFB season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 ATS for 80% since 2000. Play against home dogs in non-conference games that are good passing teams from last season that averaged 255 or more passing yards per game. The simulator also shows a high probability that Arizona will gain more than 6.5 yards per play. Toledo is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take Arizona.
09-02-10	Pittsburgh Panthers v. Utah Utes -3	Top	24-27	Push	0	9 h 41 m	Show
15* graded play on Utah as they take on 15th ranked Pittsburgh set to start at 8:30 EST and will be televised on VERSUS. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Utah will win this game by more than three points. Utah returns eight offensive starters including the QB, which is a huge advantage for any team in the first several weeks of the season. It is the fact that the OL and QB have significant playing experience and that cohesiveness is a dominant force on the playing field. On the other side of the line of scrimmage is an offense that has a red shirt starting QB and just five returning starters. I fully expect this unit to struggle against the Utah defense. Utah can run multiple looks and likes to bring pressure from several different angles and launch points. Although Pittsburgh has shown creativity offensively it will be difficult to execute with an inexperienced QB at the helm. Considering these fundamental assessments and the model projections that Pitt will not gain more than 200 net passing yards places Utah into a solid game situation. They are 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-4 ATS on the MONEY LINE for 89% winners since 2000. Play on a home team versus the money line that is a good team from last season and outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year
01-07-10	Texas +4.5 v. Alabama	Top	21-37	Loss	-110	20 h 29 m	Show
First, I would like to thank each and everyone of you for another successful CFB season. I appreciate your support and loyalty and I promise to provide even better research in 2010 that will enable all of us to win even more dough. With that said, make a commitment now to get all of my plays in ALL SPORTS. I am entering my 17th year of sports handicapping and with each passing year gain more experience and knowledge that I can pass on to you and provide you with the information you need to win. My 26-11-1 ATS bowl run is a sound example. Next up the NFL play-offs and then one of my All-time favorites March Madness. Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Texas as they take on Alabama in the BCS Championship game slated to start at 8:10 and will take place in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl. AiS shows an 88% probability that Texas will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and an 80% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 23-19 against the MONEY LINE and has made a whopping 45.7 units since 1992. Play against neutral field favorites versus the money line and is a dominant team out gaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. What makes this an exceptional system is that the average play has been a +281 dog. Here is a 2nd money line system that has produced a 20-10 record for 67% winners and has made 29.5 units since 1992. Play on neutral field dogs versus the money line that are average rushing teams gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR facing a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing <=3 YPR and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The average play of this system has been a +198 DOG. AiS also shows a 92% probability that Texas will score 22 to 28 points. Note that Alabama is just 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992. Ingram is going to find it very tough going against the Texas defensive front. AiS shows a 90% probability that Alabama sill gain 3 to 3.5 yards per rush. Note that Texas is a solid 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992.
01-06-10	Troy +3 v. Central Michigan	Top	41-44	Push	0	8 h 7 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Troy as they take on Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that Troy will win this game. There are a series of game dependent angles that support Troy in this game. Let
01-05-10	Iowa +5.5 v. Georgia Tech	Top	24-14	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on IOWA as they take on Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl set to start 8:20 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that Iowa will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. GT runs the spread offense and this plays into the strengths of the Iowa defense. AiS shows a 95% probability that GT will have less than 150 net passing yards. Note that Iowa is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is also a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus excellent rushing teams that are averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after scoring and allowing 17 or less points over the last 2 seasons. Iowa has had weeks to prepare for this game and GT
01-04-10	Boise St v. TCU -7	Top	17-10	Loss	-100	9 h 16 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on TCU as they take on Boise State set to start at 8:10 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that TCU will win this game by 8 points. AiS shows a 90% probability that Boise State will gain between 100 and 150 rushing yards. Note that TCU is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards over the last 2 seasons. AiS shows a 92% probability that TCU will score 28 or more points. TCU is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after out gaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games this season; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. Patterson is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games as the coach of TCU. Both QB
01-02-10	Michigan State +8 v. Texas Tech	Top	31-41	Loss	-115	10 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on MSU as they take on Texas Tech set to start at 9:00 EST in the Alamo Bowl taking place in San Antonio. AiS shows an 84% probability that MSU will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Turnovers will be a big factor in this game and the AiS shows a 92% probability that TT will have more turnovers than MSU. Note that MSU is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992. AiS shows an 80% probability that TT will have 3 turnovers. TT is just 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in road games when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. I have no problem adding a 3* amount to this play on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-32 against the money line making 33.6 units since 1999. Play against neutral field favorites versus the money line in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences and with an inexperienced QB as starter. I am also playing against an inexperienced play calling coach as well. Leech had a feel for his team and is a great game coach. To now have an assistant take over that responsibility and the pressure associated with it will lead to poor decisions and poor execution. MSU has several suspensions due to a campus fight, but they have depth and their best receiver Blair White will enjoy significant advantages in man coverage. MSU is going to contain the TT pass rush and their DE Sharpe and Howard. Take MSU.
01-02-10	Northern Illinois +7 v. South Florida	Top	3-27	Loss	-110	15 h 10 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Northern Illinois in the International Bowl taking place in Toronto Canada. AiS shows an 85% probability that NI will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a 54% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-8 ATS for 80% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. South Florida is not a disciplined team as evidence by the large amount of called penalties against them. Note that NI is a solid 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) versus mistake prone teams -getting nailed for 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992. Huskies run defense is a strong part of their scheme. In order to weaken that strength SF will use a lot of spread formations. NI, however, has had a month to prepare for this game to design defensive alignments that will minimize and confuse the SF offensive line. Red shirt freshman Daniels has had his growing pains this year, and is still having trouble recognizing coverages fast enough in order to read to whom the ball should be thrown. In using new and varied looks pre-snap, NI will be able to literally get in the head of Daniels and he may be more worried about where the pressure may come from than making his post snap reads. Take Northern Illinois. Ai Simulator 5* graded play on UNDER Northern Illinois/South Florida. AiS shows a 75% probability that 49 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-9 ATS for 80% winners since 2004. Play under with any team against the total in non-conference games and off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more. 82% probability that neither team will score 21 or more points based on the AiS projections. Take the UNDER.
01-01-10	Cincinnati +13 v. Florida	Top	24-51	Loss	-105	9 h 19 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Cincinnati as they face Florida in the Sugar Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Cincinnati will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 106-49 ATS since 1999. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. As you will see, my research, shows that the Cincinnati secondary will do an excellent job at containing at containing Tebow and company. AiS shows a 92% probability that Cincinnati will allow 200 to 250 net passing yards. Note that Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. AiS shows a 90% probability that Cincinnati will rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per carry. Note that Cincinnati is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Cincinnati is a near perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team sporting a win percentage of > 75%) over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Cincinnati WR Gilyard matches up well against Florida. Florida will press him at the LOS, but his quickness will elude many of these bumps. Once free he will be wide open in Florida
01-01-10	LSU v. Penn St. +1	Top	17-19	Win	100	3 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Penn State as they take on LSU playing in the Capitol One Bowl game set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 79% probability that PSU will win this game. AiS also shows a 90% probability that PSU will out gain LSU by 100 to 150 total yards. Note that PSU is a rock solid 15-1 against the money line (+15.6 Units) when they are out gain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 69-33 for 68% winners since 1992. Play on any team off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival facing an opponent off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less. LSU is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. Miles is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season as the coach of LSU. PSU will establish the run early. LSU has a great DT in Woods, who can clog up the interior, but the linebackers take far too long to shed blocks and are overly aggressive. This matches up well against PSU RB Royster, who is a very patient runner allowing blocks to take place before bursting through holes. Misdirection running plays will help contain the LSU perimeter defense and then that of course sets up play action pass plays. PSU offensive line is on the best in the nation at pass protection and pick-up blitz schemes extremely well. LSU does have advantages on the perimeter when on offense, but PSU is one of the best pass rushing units in the nation. They got 35 sacks and LSU QB Jefferson has had trouble with pressure all season. Pressuing Jefferson negates any vertical routes. Take PSU.
01-01-10	Northwestern +9 v. Auburn	Top	35-38	Win	100	12 h 26 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Auburn in the OutBack Bowl starting at 11:00 EST taking place at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. AiS shows an 80% probability that Northwestern will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Northwestern is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons; 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. Auburn is a series weak situations noting they are just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off 2 straight losses against conference rivals since 1992; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers since 1992. The Northwestern offense will be able to move the ball in long ball control drives. Their offensive scheme is designed to take advantage of short underneath passes and this forces Auburn to have 5 defenders underneath and 2 safeties in a dominant cover-2 scheme. Although NW WR do not have game breaking speed, a series of successful underneath routes will set-up the
12-31-09	Stanford v. Oklahoma -10	Top	27-31	Loss	-105	15 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Stanford in the Sun Bowl set to start at 2:00 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 11 or more points. AiS also shows a 92% probability that Oklahoma will score 28 or more points. Note that the Sooners are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game as the coach of Oklahoma. The Oklahoma offense will have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points. Oklahoma will have great advantages on the perimeter no matter the defensive scheme. Stanford CB Evans, Bademosi, and Sherman will have major difficulties covering the Sooner WR corp. The Sooners have advantages in size and speed. All of the Sooner WR are quite dangerous after the catch and this is Stanford
12-31-09	Air Force +5 v. Houston	Top	47-20	Win	100	24 h 26 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Air Force as they take on Houston set to start at NOON EST 12/31/2009. This the 2009 edition of the Armed Forces Bowl taking place at Ft. Worth Texas. AiS shows an 80% probability that Air Force will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-17 for 71% ATS winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a road favorite and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. AiS shows a 92% probability that Air Force will gain 300 or more rushing yards. Note that Houston is a miserable 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) when they allow 300 or more rushing yards since 1992. Houston is also just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after out gaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. This is an interesting matchup with the best FBS offense against the best passing defense. Air Force has had a month to prepare for this game and they will certainly bring blitzes from all areas and give different looks that will have a major effect on Houston
12-30-09	Bowling Green v. Idaho +1	Top	42-43	Win	100	19 h 3 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Idaho as they take on Bowling Green in the Humanitarian Bowl set to start at 4:30 and taking place at Bronco Stadium in Boise Idaho. AiS shows a 79% probability that Idaho will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-13 for 71% winners on the money line since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after being out gained by opposition by 125 or more total yards last game. AiS shows a 92% probability that Idaho will gain a minimum of 9 net passing yards per attempt. Note that Bowling Green is just 1-6 against the money line (-7.6 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. 96% probability that Idaho will score 28 or more points. BG is just 18-42 ATS (-28.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Idaho will show some new looks and wrinkles on defense with the single goal of making BG QB Sheehan hold onto the ball long enough to make mistakes. Idaho
12-29-09	Wisconsin +4 v. Miami (Florida)	Top	20-14	Win	100	7 h 5 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on the Hurricanes in the Champs Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Wisconsin will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 19-13 against the MONEY LINE making 24.3 units since 1999. Play on a neutral field dogs versus the money line in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences and with an experienced QB versus opponent with inexperienced QB. Miami has a trio of solid running backs, who share the carries, but this running game is goig to have difficulty getting started. Keep an eye on Wisconsin DT Stehle, who weighs in at 310 pounds can stuff the interior running game and will require consistent double teams. As Badger fans we want him to be double teamed as that will free up the LB corp to fill gaps and make stops at the LOS. Wisconsin is excellent and pressuring QB and forcing them into mistakes and the matchups favor that today as well. Wisconsin
12-29-09	UCLA -4.5 v. Temple	Top	30-21	Win	100	4 h 29 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on UCLA as they take on Temple in the Eagle Bank Bowl set to start at 4:30 EST at RFK Stadium in Washington DC. AiS shows an 80% probability that UCLA will win this game by 6 or more points. Strength of schedule is a big factor as UCLA opponent
12-26-09	North Carolina +3 v. Pittsburgh	Top	17-19	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Pittsburgh in the Meinecke Car Care Bowl set to start at 4:30 and taking place in Charlotte, North Carolina. AiS shows a 77% probability that UNC will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 63% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-6 for 82% ATS winners sine 1992. Play against any team in non-conference games that is a good passing team gaining 7.5-8.3 PYA facing a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 PYA and after 7+ games. AiS shows an 88% probability of gaining 150 to 200 net passing yards. Note that Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. UNC is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. HC Butch Davis is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992. UNC will win this game with a pounding running game led by Ryan Houston. I expect him to get at least 25 touches and he has the size and strength to wear down a defensive front. Although UNC has not had success in the passing game, they do have a very talented QB in Yates. HOWEVER, with the pounding running game, Yates will have the opportunity to call audibles simply by reading the position of the safeties. Pitt defense will have to show it
12-26-09	Ohio v. Marshall +3	Top	17-21	Win	100	14 h 2 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Marshall as they take on Ohio University set to start at 1:00 EST. This is the 2009 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. AiS shows a 78% probability that Marshall will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. As an optional and alternative wager, I like a 5* on the line and a 2* amount on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 100-51 for 66% winners against the money line since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that is an average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing 3.5 to 4.3 YPR. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 31-10 against the money line since 1999. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 and is an average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR facing an average rushing defense allowing 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and after 7+ games and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 31-13 against the money line making 17.5 units since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after being out gained by opponent by 125 or more total yards last game. Let;s take a look at the a few fundamental key matchups heavily favoring Marshall in this game. Marshall has a huge edge when on offense and it starts with the OL. Ohio has had trouble stopping the run especially on the perimeter. Their ends just don
12-24-09	SMU +13 v. Nevada	Top	45-10	Win	100	10 h 48 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on SMU as they take on Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that SMU will lose this game by 11 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-9 ATS since 1999 for 77% winners. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in non-conference games and is a good team winning between 60% to 80% playing a team with a winning record. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 119-64 ATS for 65% winners since 1999. Play against any team off a road cover where the team lost as a dog and with a winning record on the season. Based on the AiS projections to the key number to look for is 28 points scored by SMU. AiS shows a 90% probability that SMU will score 28 in this game. Note that SMU is a solid 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Nevada, however, is just 0-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Fundamentally, Nevada has rushed the ball twice as much as they throw for the season and the same will occur in this game. Luke Lippincott is one of three 1000 yard rushers for Nevada, but will be out for this game. Nevada still has the personnel to be successful running the ball. It is where play action pass occur that I believe SMU does have the advantage and the opportunity for interceptions. Nevada simply shows various formations (pistol, misidrection, and I) and challenges a team to stop any of them. When QB Kaepernick lines up about 4 yards behind center and RB Taua 3 to 4 yards behind him you will now that is the pistol. Often times they have the WR in motion. SMU has had trouble stopping the run and I do not expect them to be able to slow them down in this game, but SMU has an even greater advantage on offense with their passing game. Nevada simply does not have anyone that cover the SMU WR
12-22-09	BYU +3 v. Oregon State	Top	44-20	Win	100	8 h 13 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on BYU as they take on Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-8 ATS for 78% winners since 1999. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road cover where the team lost as a dog and with a winning record on the season. 88% probability that BYU will score 28 or more points. Note that BYU is a solid 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992 while Oregon State is 25-55 ATS (-35.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. OSU is also 1-7 against the money line (-7.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Here is a solid MONEY LINE system that has gone 24-9 ATS for 73% winners since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that is an average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR against an average rushing defense allowing 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and after 7+ games and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. one of the most important matchups in this game is between BYU
12-20-09	Middle Tenn St +4 v. Southern Mississippi	Top	42-32	Win	100	50 h 35 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Middle Tennessee state as they take on Southern Mississippi set to start at 8:15 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that MTST will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 63% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 117-64 since 1999. Play against any team off a road cover where the team lost as an dog and with a winning record on the season. Also supported and reinforcing this play is a series of game dependent angles working in favor of Middle Tenn. State. Note that they are a near perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this season. MDTST HC Stockstill is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as the coach of MTST. There is doubt in my mind that MTST's running game will be the featured highlight. I studied the matchups and I don't see any way for Southern Miss to be able to contain this ground game. The strong ground games keeps the ball out of SM's offensive hands and works the TOP to their favor. SM is also very vulnerable to the passing game and let's keep in mid that MTST gained 417 passing yards in a 62-24 win against Western Kentucky. So, if SM can't stop the run MTST may not even need to throw more than 20 times in this game. But, play action pass will be there all game long should they elect to exploit those man coverages. These are basic reads for any QB at any level and requires only to identify the location of the safeties. So, play Middle Tennessee State for a 10* graded Titan.
12-19-09	Wyoming +10.5 v. Fresno State	Top	35-28	Win	100	21 h 11 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Wyoming as they take on Fresno State set to start at 4:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Wyoming will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a series of game dependent angles. Note that FSU is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after allowing 50 points or more last game since 1992; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Even HC Hill is in a series of poor roles noting he is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game and 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games as the coach of FSU. FSU may have the top rusher in yards per game in the nation, but the near opposite can be said for their defense that ranks 111th against the rush. Based on my research and the AiS a key dominant factor to Wyoming covering and possibly pulling off the big upset is that Wyoming will gain more than 150 yards rushing. That will control the control the clock and force FSU
12-12-09	Army +16.5 v. Navy	Top	3-17	Win	100	5 h 43 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Army as they take on navy set to start at 2:30 EST with the game being payed at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. AiS shows an 85% probability that Army will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Motivation is not needed for this intense rivalry, but Army also knows they get to a 6-6 record, which would be an incredible accomplishment for this team. Plus, they would then face Temple in the EagleBank Bowl game on December 29th. This story is worth mentioning and it is an example of the so many relationships CFB produces. Army HC Ellerson actually recruited Navy HC Niumatalolo while Ellerson was the Hc at Hawaii. Niumatalolo's family wanted so badly for their son to earn a scholarship that they put out a Samoan feast. Ellerson made the mistake of finishing the food on his plate to which the family would add more to his plate. Tradition. The meal worked and Ellerson offered him a scholarship. The friendship has lasted for more than 20 years now and his part of what make the Army/Navy game a tradition like no other. I also like a first half play not to exceed 4 units on Army plus the points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-7 ATS for 82% winners since 1999. Play on any team after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins and is a marginal losing team winning between 40% and 49% of their games and now playing a winning team. For Army to have a chance in this game they must establish the pace of the game and needless to say get the lead. Army's best matchup will be their 6'10
12-05-09	Texas -14 v. Nebraska	Top	13-12	Loss	-101	9 h 20 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Texas as they take on Nebraska in the Bi-12 Championship game set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 90% probability that Texas will win this game by 14 or more points. It all comes together for Texas today and given all the importance of this game they will crank all aspects of the game to top performance levels. AiS also shows numerous and significant game dependent projections that overwhelmingly support Texas. 90% probability that Nebraska will not gain 100 or more rushing yards. Note that Nebraska is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they rush for 50 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons. 88% probability that Texas will gain between 400 and 450 total offensive yards. Note that Texas is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards over the last 2 seasons. 92% probability that Texas will allow 4 to 4.5 yards per play and also will outgain Nebraska by 0.5 to 1 yards per play. Note that Nebraska is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 0.5 to 1 yards/play since 1992. Texas is 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play since 1992. Texas is also in several supporting situations coming into this game as well. They are a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) off 3 or more consecutive overs since 1992; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992. Keys for Texas lie on two Nebraska defenders in Ndamukong and Jared Crick. Texas does not match up well at all in one on one situations as these two are arguably the best at their positions in the country. Yet, there is a host of blocking schemes that support Texas
12-05-09	Alabama v. Florida -3.5	Top	32-13	Loss	-110	6 h 60 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Florida as they take on Alabama in the SEC Championship game set to start at 4:00 EST. AiS reveals an 87% probability that Florida will win this game by 6 or more points. I had some concern researching this game that Alabama knows Florida so well that they would consistently anticipate the Gators offensive plays and tendencies that would ultimately contain Tebow and company. Yet, the one player I kept coming back that makes a significant difference from last year
12-05-09	Houston v. East Carolina +3	Top	32-38	Win	100	18 h 58 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on East Carolina as they take on Houston set to start at 12:00 EST. This is the Conference USA Championship game. AiS shows an 85% probability that ECU will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Houston need help getting here from SMU and now they have to play on the road at the defending conference champs home field. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-9 against the MONEY LINE for 76% success and made 243 units since 2004. Play on a home team versus the money line off 2 straight wins against conference rivals with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Here is a 2nd money line system hitting 72% winners since 1999 making 43.2 units. Play against a road team versus the money line off a home win against a conference rival facing an opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. AiS shows an 88% probability that ECU will score 28 or more points. Note that Houston is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. ECU is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Houston is also 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons; s 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Houston defense is among the nation's worst in giving up 445.2 yards and it has also allowed 28.0 points per game. The Cougars have especially struggled against the run (218.2 ypg) and that gives East Carolina senior Dominique Lindsay q fantastic opportunity to dominate in Saturday's game. Remember, some guy names Chris Johnson, who now plays for the Tennessee Titans? Well, he was at ECU in 2007 so the coaches know the complete running game. Take ECU.
12-05-09	Cincinnati v. Pittsburgh +2.5	Top	45-44	Win	100	18 h 36 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they host Cincinnati set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that Pitt will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 20-6 against the money line making 16.8 units since 1992. The average play has been a +114 dog which matches the line for this game. Play on a home team versus the money line off a loss against a conference rival and in a game involving two top-level teams sporting win percentages of >= 80%. Pitt has a 90% probability of gaining 7.5 to 8 net passing yards in this game. Cincinnati is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Pitt
12-04-09	Ohio +14 v. Central Michigan	Top	10-20	Win	100	9 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Ohio University as they face Central Michigan in the MAC Championship game set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Ohio U will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. AiS shows a 90% probability that CMU will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. Note that Ohio U is a solid 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Also an 80% probability that Ohio U defense will force 2 turnovers exact. Ohio is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Ohio U has steadily improved throughout the season and bring a extremely physical style of play to the game. Ohio U is playing their best football right now and I would not be surprised to see this game settled by a field goal late. Take Ohio University.
12-03-09	Oregon State +10 v. Oregon	Top	33-37	Win	100	10 h 11 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Oregon set to start at 9:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that OSU will lose this game by 9 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 49-21 for 70% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and is a game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. Of the numerous projections provided by the AiS, there is one that truly sticks out and supports OSU. AiS hsows a 94% probability that OSU will gain between 4.5 and 5.0 yards per play in this game. Note that OSU is a strong 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 4.5 to 5 total yards per play since 1992; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus excellent rushing teams that are averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus mistake prone teams being nailed for 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. The biggest advantage for OSU is their OL going up against an Oregon DL that lacks size and strength. This is a matchup that will provide for a great opportunity for RB Jacquizz Rogers, who has unreal quickness and tremendous vision, to get through holes. The OSU OL is doing a great job against far superior defensive lines and they will be the dominant reason that OSU covers this number and just might be heading to Pasadena. AiS shows a 45% probability that OSU will win the game. So, adding an optional 3* play on the money line is a solid investment. 5* graded play UNDER the posted total presently at 62.5. AiS shows a 75% probability that 75 or fewer points will be scored in this game. The dominant reason why is the OSU defense, who ranks first against the run in the Pac-10. Oregon, of course, brings a different animal to the table with their spread running offensive scheme. OSU has proven, though, that they have the gap discipline necessary to contain the Oregon offense. Here is a supporting system that has gone 29-9 UNDER for 76% winners since 1992. Play under with all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 after a win by 21 or more points facing an opponent after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game. Oregon has an 87% probability that of gaining between 150 and 200 net passing yards. Note that OSU is a solid 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. OSU is also 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. Take the UNDER.
11-28-09	Washington State v. Washington -24	Top	0-30	Win	100	9 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Tulane as they take on SMU set to start at 3:00 EST. AiS shows a 74% probability that Tulane will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 1999. Play on road dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games. SMU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams allowing >=5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Here is an amazing money line system that has gone 16-11 making 43 units since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line with a poor scoring defense allowing 31 or more points/game; after being shutout. Tulane is allowing 77 PPG on the season and they were shut out last week by UCF 49-0. SMU defense has been quite poor as well allowing 476.3 yards per game over their last 3 games and have allowed 434 yards per game in their home games. Tulane will be able to move the ball and score points against this defense. The last time Tulane was shutout was October 31 when they lost to LSU 42-0. The next game saw them win 45-38 versus UTEP 45-38 as 6.5 point dogs. Take Tulane. Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Washington as they take on Washington State set to start at 6:30 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 24-3 ATS for 89% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points in conference games that are average offensive teams gaining 4.8 to 5.6 YPP facing a team with a weak defense allowing >=6.2 YPP. This system has gone 19-2 ATS over the past 10 seasons and is 9-0 L5 seasons. 90% probability that Washington will out gain WSU by a minimum of 200 yards and will out gain WSU by 2 or more yards per play. WSU is just 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992; Washington is a solid 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. WSU is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less and allowing 6.75+ yards/play last game over the last 3 seasons. Take Washington.
11-28-09	Florida State +25 v. Florida	Top	10-37	Loss	-105	18 h 38 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Florida State as they take on Florida set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that FSU will lose this game by 24 or fewer points. I can still remember last year when I had a 10* Titan winner on Ole Miss, who like FSU, game into Florida as a 24 point dog. Ole Miss won that game and then game that glorious Tebow speech. I am certainly not calling for the upset here, but based on the AiS projections it will be far closer than most observers believe possible. FSU comes in with a severe chip on their shoulders losing 5 straight to this team and enduring a season where their beloved HC was being ridiculed by high level boosters. Nothing would be better than to see Bowden pull off the miracle and prove his naysayers wrong, in the payer
11-28-09	Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -7.5	Top	0-27	Win	100	15 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Oklahoma as hey host Oklahoma State in the Bedlam rivalry set to start at 12:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 8 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1999. Play on a home team off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of 6 more and with a winning record on the season. AiS shows a 92% probability that Oklahoma will pass for 250 to 300 net passing yards. Note that Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992. Oklahoma has lost 5 starters on offense including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford. But, there has been ample time for this unit to rebuild given the tremendous depth on their roster. I also think getting humiliated by Texas Tech last week even adds more fuel to the competitive fires to not only defeat Oklahoma State, but humiliate them as well. Although this is the most losses Stoop
11-27-09	Nevada +14 v. Boise St	Top	33-44	Win	100	11 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Nevada as they take on Boise State set to start at 10:00 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that Nevada will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. This is going to be a very tough game for Boise State as Nevada has averaged 55 PPG over their last 5 games attributed mainly to a prolific running game. That running game is the best in the FBS and Nevada will be able to control the clock and the pace of the game. The running game will also keep the highest scoring offense in the land off the field and minimize their scoring opportunities. Nevada HC Ault is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-35 for just 40% winners, but has made an incredible 76.2 units in profits since 1992. Play on road dogs of +315 or higher versus the money line after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half facing an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games. The average play for this system has been a +484 DOG! Take Nevada
11-27-09	Alabama Crimson Tide v. Auburn Tigers +10	Top	26-21	Win	100	3 h 16 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Auburn as they take on state rival Alabama in the Iron Bowl set to start at 2:30 and will be nationally on CBS. AIS shows a 83% probability that Auburn will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-14 ATS for 75% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites with a good offensive team scoring 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG after 7+ games and after scoring 37 points or more last game. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 54-25 ATS for 68% winners since 1992. Play on a home team after a game where they forced no turnovers facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. By SEC standards, Auburn
11-27-09	Temple v. Ohio +3	Top	17-35	Win	100	16 h 31 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Ohio University as they take on Temple set to start at 11:00 EST on
11-26-09	Texas -21 v. Texas A&M	Top	49-39	Loss	-105	23 h 30 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Texas as they take on Texas A&M set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Texas will win this game by 21 or more points. AiS projects a 90% probability that Texas will gain between 450 and 500 total yards. Note that A&M is an imperfect 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. 93% probability that Texas will score 28 or more points. Note that A&M is a weak 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. AiS also reveals a 90% probability that Texas will gain between 8 and 8.5 net passing yards. Note that A&M is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Texas defense matches up very well against A&M. Note too that A&M is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=310 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Take Texas in a big route.
11-24-09	Ball State Cardinals v. Western Michigan Broncos -11	Top	22-17	Loss	-103	6 h 21 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Ball State as they take on Western Michigan set to start at 7:00 on ESPN2. AiS shows an 83% probability that Ball State will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Ball State is reinforced by several game dependent angles. Note that Ball State is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game since 1992. Western Michigan is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 29-29 against the MONEY LINE and has made a whopping 38.5 units in profits since 2004. The average money line play has been a +233 dog. Play against a home team versus the money line and is a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 passing yards per attempt and facing a weak passing team gaining <=5.6 PYA. Here is an amazing money line system that has gone just 34-45 for 53% winners, but has made 47 units since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line with a poor first half defense - 16 or more points per game and after a loss by 28 or more points. Ball State
11-21-09	Oregon -6 v. Arizona	Top	44-41	Loss	-102	11 h 35 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oregon as they face Arizona set to start at 8:00 and will be seen on ABC TV. AiS shows an 85% probability that Oregon will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 27-3 for 90% winners since 2004. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points average passing team allowing 175-230 PY/game facing an average passing defense allowing 175-230 PY/game and after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This system is a perfect 4-0 this season and has ripped off a remarkable 19-1 ATS record over the past 3 seasons. Equally remarkable is that 63% of these plays have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Arizona had major problems stopping Cal on the ground last week and that does not bode well for this game. RB LaMichael James is running wild and is benefitting from spread formations drawing LB out of the box. More important though is that the OL is playing tremendous team football and is getting bodies on defenders at both levels. This is the dominant reason that James is having strong success, but he also has the vision and quickness to gain yardage on plays that are stopped at the LOS. The Oregon spread will be just too overwhelming for Arizona to contain for 4 quarters. Take Oregon.
11-21-09	Rutgers v. Syracuse +9	Top	13-31	Win	100	16 h 13 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Syracuse as they host Rutgers set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 89% probability that Syracuse will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 73-29 for 72% winners since 2004. Play against a road team after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread in weeks 10 through 13. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 49-21 for 70% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games facing an opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 63-27 ATS for 70% winners since 1999. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference matchups and is a good offensive team scoring 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG. Here is a 4th system that uses the money line and exploits false favorites with an average play of +149 producing a 51-24 mark for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. Play on a home team versus the money line after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Rutgers is off a 31-0 pasting of South Florida where they were the beneficiary of four South Florida turnovers. Note that Rutgers is just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992. In Syracuse
11-21-09	LSU v. Mississippi -4	Top	23-25	Loss	-115	6 h 28 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Mississippi as they take on LSU set to start at 3:30 and can be seen on CBS TV. AIS shows an 83% probability that Mississippi will win this game by 5 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-13 ATS for 77% winners since 2004. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are average passing teams gaining 175-230 PY/game facing an average passing defense allowing 175-230 PY/game and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. LSU does not matchup well against the Rebels. LSU is just 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. Ole Miss is a strong 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. RB Dexter McCluster is going to be too much for the LSU defense to handle in this game. He lines up not only at RB, but at WR, and also runs the Wild Cat out of the QB position. LSU is vulerable to over pursuit as evident throughout this season and McCluster is a cut back runner that will exploit lanes created by over pursuit tendencies. Ole Miss has made significant personnel moves on the OL starting a true freshman in Bobbie Massie at RT and moving second team ALL-SEC tackle John Jerry inside to RG. At 335 pounds Jerry opened up huge running lanes for McCluster and other RBs in last week
11-20-09	Boise St v. Utah St. +24	Top	52-21	Loss	-115	12 h 54 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Utah State as they host Boise State set to start at 9:30 EST and will be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows an 83% probability that Utah State will lose this game by 22 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-9 ATS for 79% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games returning 8+ offensive starters facing an opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 51-22 ATS for 70% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 14.5 or more points after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. Here is a 3rds system that has gone 88-45 ATS for 66% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Utah State is in an excellent role for this game noting they are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. Utah State is a strong running team and to have any hopes of upsetting Boise State a team MUST have a strong running game. They gained 381 rushing yards on 52 carries in last week
11-19-09	Colorado +17 v. Oklahoma State	Top	28-31	Win	100	9 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Colorado as they face Oklahoma State set to start at 7:30 and can be seen on ESPN TV. AiS shows an 80% probability that Colorado will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. The line for this game has been moving quite a bit given that Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson has to be helped off the field in their last game. Based on published reports he will start tonight and the line reflects that fact. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 103-48 ATS for 68% winners since 1992. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Although the AiS shows a 12% probability that Colorado will win the following system still underscores the ATS graded play and can be sued to make significant profits moving forward. This is a money line system playing an average dog of +265 and has made 46.7 units with a 47% winning record of 30-33 since 2004. Play against a home teams versus the money line in conference games that are good passing team gaining 7.5-8.3 PYA facing a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 PYA. Take Colorado and if possible get down a ½* unit on the money line too.
11-14-09	Texas Tech +5 v. Oklahoma State	Top	17-24	Loss	-110	11 h 3 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Texas Tech as they face Oklahoma State set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Texas Tech will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-24 making 40.6 units since 1999. Play on dogs of +155 to +300 versus the money line in conference games that are poor rushing teams gaining 3 to 3.5 YPR facing a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing <=3 YPR. AiS shows a 90% probability that TT will gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Note that they are a solid 11-1 against the money line (+10.8 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. AiS shows an 88% probability that TT will score more than 28 or more points. Note that TT is 9-2 against the money line (+8.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Oklahoma State is just 2-6 against the money line (-15.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. TT is also supported by a series of solid situational angles. Note that they are 8-1 against the money line (+9.7 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage. of 58% or better over the last 2 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons; 15-4 against the money line (+16.6 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992. Take Texas Tech.
11-14-09	Notre Dame +7 v. Pittsburgh	Top	22-27	Win	100	11 h 49 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Notre Dame as they face Pittsburgh set to start at 8:00 and will be seen on NBA TV. AiS shows a 79% probability that Notre Dame will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a 50% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite, after the first month of the season. AIS shows a 90% probability that ND will score 28 or more points. Note that ND is 64-35 ATS (+25.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992; Pitt is just 20-61 ATS (-47.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 24-8 making 18 units since 1992 for 75% winners. Play on a road team versus the money line that is a dominant team outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG facing a good team posting a differential of +50-+100 YPG after 7+ games and after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games. Take Notre Dame.
11-14-09	Texas-El Paso v. SMU -6	Top	31-35	Loss	-110	15 h 18 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on SMU as they host UTEP set to start at 3:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that SMU will win this game by 9 or more points. AiS also reveals a 92% probability that SMU will score 28 or more points in this game. UTEP is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. SMU is a solid 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. An 85% probability that SMU will out gain UTEP by 150 to 200 total yards. Note that UTEP is a weak 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when they are out gained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Meanwhile, in past games where SMU out gained their opponent by 150 to 200 total yards they are a perfect 8-0 ATS. In addition, UTEp is in a poor situational role for this game noting they are just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. SMU is a dominant passing team and UTEP HC Price has struggled to the tune of a 4-13 ATS mark when facing below average running teams averaging <=120 rushing yards/game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-8 on the money line since 1992 for 78% winners. Play against a road team versus the money line after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games facing an opponent after a win by 3 or less points. Yes, this is a money line system, but it's components reinforce all of the aforementioned situations and the AiS grading. Take SMU.
11-14-09	Houston v. Central Florida +5	Top	32-37	Win	105	4 h 38 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Central Florida as they face number 12 ranked Houston set to start at High Noon EST. CF has an 83% probability of losing this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 59% probability that they will win the game. Houston has needed last drive scores to survive scares from lesser teams. The Houston defense ranks 115th out of 120 FBS teams so I can hardly agree at all that they are the 12th best team in the nation. As outlined by the AiS summary grading, there is a very real possibility that UCF will be able to exploit that weak defense and also to contain the most productive offense in the country. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 78-37 ATS for 68% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses facing an opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. AiS also shows a 90% probability that UCF will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that Houston is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and UCF is a solid 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Houston is also in a series of very weak situations noting they are just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take UCF.
11-13-09	Temple v. Akron +6	Top	56-17	Loss	-100	4 h 20 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Akron as they take on Temple set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Akron will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and also has a 64% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-32 on the money line making 40 units in profits with the average play a +200 DOG since 1999. Play against a road team versus the money line after 7 or more consecutive straight up wins in weeks 10 through 13. Here is a 2nd money line system that has gone just 98-105 making 74.5 units over the past 10 years and has also averaged a +203 DOG play. Play against road favorites versus the money line after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game.
11-13-09	West Virginia v. Cincinnati -9.5	Top	21-24	Loss	-105	4 h 45 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Cincinnati as they face West Virginia set to start on ESPN at 8:00 EST Friday night. AiS shows a 78% probability that Cincinnati will win this game by 10 or more points. The so-called problem at who is the better QB is a bit of a stretch in this situation. It is a very unique situation in tat the team will perform well no matter who is taking snaps. They are that close a team and every member on this team is about the team and what they can do to get a National Title oportunity. Whether they get the respect necessary to ear that opportunity remains to be seen. Based on the AiS projections I would not surprised to see this a 20 point+ blowout. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-9 ATS for 73% winners since 1999. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. AiS shows a 90% probability that Cincinnati will outgain WVU by a minimum of 2.0 yards per play. Note that WVU is an awful 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. Cincinnati is a solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 to 2.5 yards/play since 1992. HC Kelly is in a very strong role noting he is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Cincinnati.
11-11-09	Toledo +17 v. Central Michigan	Top	28-56	Loss	-103	10 h 28 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Toledo as they face Central Michigan set to start at 8:00 EST and will be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows a 78% probability that Toledo will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 102-47 ATS for 69% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. AIS also shows an 88% probability that Toledo will score 28 or more points. Note that in past games Toledo is a solid 55-13 ATS (+40.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Central Michigan is just 20-49 ATS (-33.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Toledo was trailing big at the end of the first half against Miami (Ohio), but played far better in the 2nd half and lost 31-24. Note that Toledo is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. Teams are two of the top three offenses in the MAC. The top two passers and two of the top four tacklers in the Mid-American Conference will share the field Wednesday night. CMU's Dan LeFevour and Toledo's Aaron Opelt rank first and second, respectively, in the conference in passing efficiency. LeFevour has completed 176-of-257 passes (68.5 percent) for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns (145.5 rating), while Opelt has completed 139-of-234 passes (59.4 percent) for 1,863 yards and 15 touchdowns (142.3 rating). Although Toledo ranks dead last in scoring defense in the MAC, I like the matchups presented in this game. Keep an eye on LB Archie Donald as he averaging 10.7 tackles per game. His responsibility will be to contain LeFevour and force him to pass the ball instead of scrambling and creating downfield opportunities. Take Toledo.
11-10-09	Ohio +3 v. Buffalo U	Top	27-24	Win	100	23 h 51 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Ohio University as they face Buffalo set to start at 7:00 and will be seen nationally on ESPN2. AiS shows a 78% probability that Ohio will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-12 and making 30 units with the average play a +131 DOG since 2004. Play against a home team versus the money line off 2 straight losses against conference rivals facing an opponent off a road win. Buffalo did lose two straight conference games at Western Michigan 34-31 and last week at home to Bowling Green 31-30. Not just losses, but heart wrenching emotional ones that take them out of any bowl consideration whatsoever being 3-6. Last week they lost to Bowling Green as a favorite and the team knows they should have won that game. Ohio is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile Buffalo is just 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. This season they have two common opponents and Ohio U went 2-0 SU and ATS while Buffalo went 1-1 and 0-2 ATS. Moreover, Ohio U averaged a solid 6 yards per play. Take Ohio University.
11-07-09	Oklahoma v. Nebraska +5.5	Top	3-10	Win	100	21 h 4 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Nebraska as they face Oklahoma set to start at 3:30 EST. An alternative wager is to play 12* on the line and 3* on the money line. AiS shows an 87% probability that Nebraska will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 60% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 80-42 ATS since 1992. Play against a road team off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals and now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. 92% probability based on the AiS projections that Oklahoma will pass for 6 to 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Note that Oklahoma is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Nebraska is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games versus very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game since 1992. Here is a remarkable money line system that supports Nebraska and has produced a record of 38-10 for 79% winners since 1999. Play on a home team versus the money line after being beaten by the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games and with the game occurring in the second half of the season. Take Nebraska.
11-07-09	Florida State v. Clemson -9	Top	24-40	Win	100	21 h 59 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Clemson over Florida State set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Clemson will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-16 ATS for 72% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. AiS shows a 92% probability that Clemson will score 28 or more points. Note that Clemson is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. FSU is a poor situation noting they are 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games after playing 3 straight conference games since 1992. Take the Clemson Tigers.
11-07-09	Army +17 v. Air Force	Top	7-35	Loss	-110	17 h 55 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Army as they face Air Force set to start at 3:30 EST. AIS shows an 87% probability that Army will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 18-16 on the Money Line and has made a whopping 60.3 units since 2004. Play on road dogs versus the money line that are terrible offensive team gaining <=280 YPG facing a team with a terrible defense allowing >=440 YPG and after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. What is amazing about this system is that the average play has been a dog of +424! Obviously, this is going to a much closer game than the line indicates or the public believes possible. The AiS shows a 92% probability that Army will be outgained by less than half a yard per play. Note that Army is a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by <=0.5 yards/play since 1992. Air Force is in a poor situation noting they are just 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take Army.

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