Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-12 | Sacramento Kings +14 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 85-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Why step in against the Clippers, winners of 11 in a row? Line inflation that's why. The Clippers have posted many of their 11 straight victories against weak opposition, including beating the Hornets, Bobcats, Raptors, Pistons, Suns and yes, the Kings. The Clippers humiliated Sacramento, 116-81, at the beginning of the month. So the Kings shouldn't lack for motivation.
Sacramento is 1-10 on the road, but only one other time have the Kings lost by more than 13 points. The Kings are 4-7 ATS on the highway. But that poor spread mark would look more respectable at 5-6 if the Kings wouldn't have lost at Indiana by 12 points in overtime as a 7 1/2-point 'dog. The Kings received a much needed confidence boost in their last game beating Golden State, 131-127, at home this past Wednesday to end a five-game losing streak. Point guard Aaron Brooks had a big game with 23 points, five assists and two steals. Brooks is a key for the Kings and his strong play should carryover when he matches up against Chris Paul. Tyreke Evans may still be out for Sacramento, but the Kings did get back Marcus Thornton, their strongest bench player. He scored 19 points against the Warriors after missing the previous three games to be with his ill mother. |
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12-20-12 | Miami Heat -5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 110-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
The Mavericks are an under .500 team through their first 25 games, which isn't a surprise since they haven't had Dirk Nowitzki. The Mavericks aren't going to be a respected playoff contender until Nowitzki starts playing and that's not going to happen for this matchup. The Mavericks have beaten just one winning team at home.
Dallas ranks 27th in scoring defense giving up 101.5 points a game. The Heat averaged 103.1 points per game and rank No. 1 in field goal percentage at 49.5 percent. The Heat are rested. This is just their second road matchup in their last 12 games. Miami has covered 12 of the past 16 times when playing on one day rest. Ever since Dallas defeated Miami in the NBA Finals two years ago, the Heat have taken this matchup very serious with lots of intensity. The Heat swept both games last season winning by an average of 18.5 points. The Heat is 7-2-1 ATS during its past 10 games a Dallas. The Mavericks are 4-10 ATS when meeting an opponent with a winning record. |
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12-19-12 | Utah Jazz v. Indiana Pacers -3 | Top | 84-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
Both Utah and Indiana were in action on Tuesday night. The Jazz posted a rare road victory beating the Nets in Brooklyn, 92-90. That was a nice win for Utah, but I don't see the Jazz winning back-to-back road games. Utah is 5-10 away from Salt Lake City, 5-9-1 ATS. Utah has not won two road games in a row all season.
The Jazz are 2-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back games this season and playing for the fourth time in six days. Utah is 1-7 ATS in its last eight away contests when meeting a foe with a winning home record. Indiana lost 98-93 on the road to Milwaukee last night. The Pacers are a strong rebounding team and rank first in defensive field goal percentage and third in fewest points allowed. But they were done in by a rare hot-shooting performance from Brandon Jennings while connecting on only 40 percent from the field themselves. The Pacers have been playing well, though, going 9-5 in their last 14 games and 4-1 during their past five matchups. Look for the Pacers to shoot better while maintaining their defensive excellence. This will be enough to cover this short number against a road-challenged Jazz squad that is far more effective at home. |
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12-18-12 | Indiana Pacers +3 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
The Pacers fell to 3-6 when the Bucks beat them in Milwaukee, 99-85, back on Nov. 14.
Indiana is playing much better now winning nine of its last 13, including three in a row. The Pacers haven't forgotten about that embarrassing loss to Milwaukee. The Bucks were burying the Pacers by 29 points when Larry Sanders committed a flagrant foul on Tyler Hansbrough that left Hansbrough sprawled on the court. This has become a bitter rivalry so getting points is huge in what shapes up to be a defensive battle. The Pacers are clearly the better defensive club ranking first in defensive field goal percentage and third in scoring defense holding foes to 90.4 points per game. The Bucks shoot 43.3 percent from the floor, which ranks them 23rd. Milwaukee is giving up an average of 97.2 points per game. Indiana has been playing exception defense holding its last three opponents - the Cavaliers, 76ers and Pistons - to an average of 81 points and 38.4 percent field goal shooting. The Bucks are not a good home club failing to cover in 15 of their last 16 at Bradley Center. The Pacers have won five of their last seven away games. They also have beaten Milwaukee in five of their last six meetings. |
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12-18-12 | Atlanta Hawks -6.5 v. Washington Wizards | 100-95 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Even though the opponent is the Wizards, the Hawks should be very focused for this road matchup. Atlanta is off an embarrassing 115-93 home loss to Golden State this past Saturday. The Hawks never showed up for that game. Hawks coach Larry Drew said it was his team's low-energy game of the year.
I see Atlanta bouncing back strong against a beat-up Wizards team that ranks last in scoring at less than 90 points a game. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS following a defeat. The Hawks have a top 10 defense and force the most turnovers in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards are starting a pair of shooting guards as they are down their top two point guards. They are ripe to commit a lot of turnovers. The Hawks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road contests. They have dominated the Wizards winning 17 of the past 18 in the series going 10-4-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings. |
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12-14-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. New Orleans Hornets +4 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
Minnesota is playing well going 5-2 in its last seven games. But I see the Hornets ending their five-game losing streak with a home win against the Timberwolves.
Considering their upcoming schedule, this becomes a must-win, stop-the-pain game for New Orleans. The Hornets go on the road for four games starting on Sunday following this matchup with road games versus Portland, Golden State, the Clippers and San Antonio. They will not be favored in any of those matchups. The Hornets are stronger defensively with Anthony Davis back in the lineup. The Timberwolves are 7-16 ATS the past 23 times when facing a foe with a losing record. Kevin Love missed the first nine games with a broken hand. He's still struggling to regain his shooting touch shooting just 34 percent from the floor during his last nine games. Already without Ricky Rubio, the Timberwolves will be without another guard in this matchup, Malcom Lee. He suffered a knee injury in the Timberwolves' last game, a win this past Wednesday against Denver. Lee had started 12 of the last 13 games at shooting guard. |
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12-12-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Charlotte Bobcats +8.5 | Top | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Granted the Clippers are playing well. But this is their second game in two nights and fourth matchup in five days. The Clippes are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road contests versus a foe with a losing home mark. The Clippers have failed to cover in four of their last five away games.
Charlotte has fallen back after a surprise beginning. The Bobcats are mired in a nine-game losing streak. Still, they are a much improved team capable of springing upsets having beaten Indiana, Dallas and Milwaukee. In their second to last home game, they lost by two on a buzzer shot to the Knicks. The Bobcats received a boost at yesterday's practice when owner Michael Jordan played one-on-one with several of the players. Expect a strong effort from the Bobcats while the Clippers take it easy in a tired, let down spot. |
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12-12-12 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Indiana Pacers -8 | 81-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
This would be a tough matchup for Cleveland anyways, but it's made worse by the timing.
The Cavaliers are in a huge letdown spot after an improbable 100-94 home win against the Lakers that put an end to a five-game Cleveland losing streak. Now the young Cavaliers have to turn around and play the rugged Pacers on the road. Indiana has been idle since Sunday. The Pacers are not in a good frame of mind either after one of their poorest defensive efforts in their last game, a 104-93 road loss to the Thunder. The Pacers rank first in defensive field goal percentage. They are No. 1 in rebounding and surrender the third-fewest points. Kyrie Irving is back for the Cavaliers after missing 11 games with a broken finger. But the Cavaliers are soft up front, which is reflected in a 2-11 road record. They are 5-11 ATS the past 16 times they've played a winning home team on the road. The Cavaliers have lost their last four road games to the Pacers and are 1-8 overall in the series. Indiana's offense is its weakness. The Cavaliers limited the Lakers to 41.3 shooting, but even with that effort still rank last in the NBA in field-goal percentage defense at 47.8 percent. The Cavaliers also may be missing guard Daniel Gibson, who hyperextended his right elbow against the Lakers and missed the second half. |
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12-11-12 | New York Knicks -3 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 100-97 | Push | 0 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
The Knicks have dropped only five games, but the one that really bothers them is a 96-89 overtime defeat to rival Brooklyn on Nov. 26. Brook Lopez had a huge performance in that game with 22 points, 11 rebounds and five blocked shots.
Lopez, though, is out with a foot injury. He's missed the last five games and won't play here. The Nets have lost four in a row minus Lopez with the closest loss being by six points. Opponents are taking advantage of Lopez's absence in the middle shooting 52.1 percent against the Nets during the past four games. The Knicks rank fifth in scoring at 102.8 points a game and have Carmelo Anthony back in the lineup and playing at a high level. Anthony is averaging 30.1 points in his last eight games. The Knicks should get a major contribution, too, from their backcourt in this matchup. Jason Kidd missed the first Nets game. He's back in the lineup. Raymond Felton has been pointing to this matchup, too, after playing one of the worst games of his career in the first Nets game with five turnovers and 3-of-19 shooting from the floor. Timing means a lot in the NBA. The Nets are 2-6 ATS versus foes with a winning road. They are going to be good, but right not they are a work in progress and not close to fulfilling their potential with Lopez out. The Knicks are a much better team right now and highly motivated for this matchup. |
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12-10-12 | Golden State Warriors -4 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 104-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Golden State's 13-7 record is no fluke. The Warriors are much better defensively and on the boards than they've been in a long time. They are playing their best ball right now with a 10-3 mark in their last 13 games.
That record probably is going to take a hit as the Warriors are in the middle of a seven-game road trip. So far the Warriors have beaten the Pistons, Nets minus Brook Lopez and Wizards. The Bobcats are easier than the first two road opponents. The Warriors know they can't slip here because their last three road matchups are against Miami, Orlando and Atlanta. That's probably at least two losses. The timing is right to play Charlotte now. The Bobcats have dropped seven in a row as opponents take them fully serious now. The Bobcats' big people have gone in the tank and their defense has been horrendous surrendering 110 points per game during the losing streak. David Lee and Stephen Curry are playing at a very high level for Golden State. Lee has never played better, which is saying a lot since he's been a good player for a few years. Curry went to high school in Charlotte and then nearby Davidson college. He is averaging 24.5 points while shooting 50.7 percent from the floor in four lifetime games against the Bobcats. |
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12-09-12 | Orlando Magic v. Phoenix Suns -4 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
The Suns are 1-7 in their last eight games and mired in a six-game losing skid. Only one of these losses, however, has occurred on the road.
This is just Phoenix's second home matchup in its last nine games. It's a big game for the Suns and they draw a weak opponent that is tired and having their own problems on the road. Orlando is 3-7 away from home. The Magic are concluding a five-game, nine-day road trip with this matchup. The Magic are dragging and anxious to get home. The Magic have become a perimeter team without Dwight Howard, living and dying by the 3-pointer. Tired legs are not a good thing for an outside shooting team. The Magic are just 5-for-30 from 3-point range in their last two games. Phoenix is vulnerable inside, but the Magic don't have the inside forces to take advantage although Glen Davis is playing better. The Suns are not a playoff team anymore. But they are better than they've shown. Their recent record looks bad because they just finished a demanding East Coast trip where they went 1-6. Except for a horrible effort in Detroit, though, they were in the other games. Their lone home game during this span came against the Mavericks and they lost in the final minute still dragging from the three-hour time change. I'm expecting the Suns to be ready, rested and strongly motivated. Orlando is the team in the bad spot. The Magic lack the talent to win against a motivated opponent on the road unless producing a super effort and hitting a large number of their long-range bombs. I don't see that happening here. |
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12-08-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics -6 | Top | 79-92 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
The 76ers nipped Boston, 95-94, at home on Friday night. It was the second time in two meetings the 76ers have defeated Boston this season.
This was a particularly tough loss for the Celtics. Boston did a great job defensively on point guard Jrue Holiday, who is having an All-Star caliber season. But every bounce and loose ball seemed to go against the Celtics. The Celtics also missed several open shots. I don't see the 76ers beating Boston three straight times. It's going to be a different game in Boston tonight. The Celtics are the more talented team, have the stronger bench and will be highly motivated to get their immediate revenge. This is a home series with the host covering five of the last six times. The Celtics have age on them, yes. But Philadelphia is the team that has really struggled when playing with zero rest going 4-12 ATS in that situation. |
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12-07-12 | Orlando Magic v. Sacramento Kings -2.5 | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
Orlando is deep into its lengthy road trip playing its fourth away matchup in the last six days. The Magic don't go home until they play Phoenix on the road Sunday. So Orlando could really be dragging in this game.
Sacramento has tightened up its perimeter defense. This is huge because the Magic have showed a tendency under first-year head man Jacque Vaghan to live and die by the 3-point shot. Sacramento ranks 11th in defending against the 3-point shot holding foes to 34.2 percent. The Kings also were averaging 46.1 points in the paint per game, which ranks them fourth-highest. The Magic are going to have trouble containing DeMarcus Cousins inside. Tyreke Evans has been hot, too, for the Kings averaging 20.3 points per game in his last seven game while connecting on seven of his last 15 shots from 3-point range. Sacramento has won its last three of its last five home contests, beating the Lakers and Jazz during this span. |
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12-07-12 | Washington Wizards +9.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
The record shows Washington to be 2-13 overall and 0-7 on the road. Those records are deceiving, however.
The Wizards have a winning point spread road mark and are playing their best ball having won two of their last three, including a huge confidence-building victory against the defending world champion Heat this past Tuesday. Washington is in action for just the second time in seven days. The Wizards have a strong revenge motive as the Hawks nipped them in overtime in Atlanta on Nov. 21. It's a much different situation for Atlanta. The Hawks defeated the Nuggets, 108-104, at home this past Wednesday. Up next for Atlanta following today's game against Washington is much more challenging and high-profile games - road matchups on Saturday against Memphis and on Monday versus Miami. The Hawks have a tendency to play up or down to the level of their competition. The Hawks also had covered only two of their last 11 home games. |
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12-05-12 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Indiana Pacers -4 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Indiana has compensated for its lack of offense without Danny Granger by playing outstanding defense. The Pacers rank No. 1 in the league in both scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They also rank No. 3 in defending against 3-pointers, which is a staple of Portland's attack.
Meeting the top defensive team is tough any time, but it's especially so in this matchup for the Trail Blazers because it marks the conclusion of a seven-game, 11-day road trip that began before Thanksgiving. In their last two games, the Trail Blazers have had to play three overtimes. They were fortunate to beat Charlotte in overtime this past Monday because of Bobcat mistakes. The Trail Blazers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on one days rest. Portland is at a real disadvantage when turning to its bench because its reserves are averaging less than 15 points per game. That's the lowest in the league. Because this is the end of their trip and off consecutive overtime games, the Trail Blazers are going to be forced to use their bench. Indiana has a big advantage there when the reserves play. The Pacers have been on the road for their last four games, although they had a short trip to Chicago last night and posted an impressive 80-76 win to even their record at .500. The Pacers went 3-1 on their road trip. They are playing better and their confidence is up. Indiana is a rugged rebounding and defensive club. The Trail Blazers aren't a very good team to start with and they lack the height and bench strength to hold up playing in their seventh consecutive road game. Portland also doesn't have a good history versus the Pacers failing to cover in seven of the last nine meetings. |
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12-04-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Memphis Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 98-108 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
Perhaps at first glance this number seems high. On closer inspection it's actually a bargain. The Grizzlies are good, darn good and this is a kill spot for them.
Memphis and Miami are tied for the best winning percentage in the NBA with 12-3 records. The Suns are a lottery team facing a bad situational spot. The Grizzlies last played on Saturday against the Spurs in San Antonio. This was the second of back-to-back games for the Grizzlies, while the Spurs had sat out their three main stars against Miami in their previous game to give them two full days of rest instead of one. Still, the Grizzlies took the Spurs to overtime before losing. Memphis also played without Tony Allen, who may be back for this game. The Grizzlies led San Antonio by 14 with less than 10 minutes left. That defeat left a bad taste in the mouth of the Grizzlies. Now the Grizzlies are the rested team. They are 8-1 at home this season, covering seven of the nine. Memphis leads the NBA in defense yielding 90.7 points a game and ranks in the top six in defensive field goal percentage and defensive 3-point percentage. The Grizzlies have covered 12 of their last 14 games. Phoenix is 2-8 on the road. The Suns are playing in their sixth straight road game. They are 1-4 on this road trip with their lone win coming against the Cavaliers. The Suns' confidence is down. In their last three games they lost by 40 points to the Pistons, lost by four to Toronto and lost by seven to New York this past Sunday with the final losing margin not indicative of how bad the Suns played because the Knicks relaxed in the second half after building a 59-42 halftime lead. The Suns desperately want to get back to the desert. They rank last defensively allowing 102.7 points per game. They've surrendered 108 points per game in their last three matchups. Phoenix could be missing Jermaine O'Neal, the team's second-leading shot-blocker who has a right quadriceps strain. |
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12-03-12 | Milwaukee Bucks v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5 | Top | 81-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
New Orleans hasn't been playing well, but the Bucks aren't playing well enough either to be laying this many points on the road. The Hornets have won the last 10 times they've hosted Milwaukee, covering four of the past five, and can't afford a loss here. After this game, New Orleans plays the Lakers, Grizzlies and Heat.
New Orleans can hit from the perimeter with underrated Ryan Anderson. The Bucks are a below average rebounding and defensive field goal percentage team. Milwaukee is just 2-5 in its last seven games with the victories coming against the Bulls in Chicago by one point when the Bulls blew a 27-point lead and in their last game against Boston at home on Saturday when the Celtics were playing in the second of back-to-back nights and missing suspended Rajon Rondo. Milwaukee is 3-15 ATS following a straightup victory. The Bucks are averaging just 88.6 points in their last five games. Scott Skiles is still searching for the right frontcourt combination and guards Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings were shooting a lowly 40 and 41 percent, respectively, from the floor. |
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12-03-12 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Charlotte Bobcats -1 | 118-112 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Early money has moved Charlotte into the favorite role. I agree. The Bobcats are vastly improved under Mike Dunlap. They've beaten much tougher teams at home than Portland, a terrible road club. Portland is 1-5 ATS on the road this season. The Trail Blazers have to deal with fatigue issues, too, as this is their sixth road game in nine days.
Depth is huge on long road trips and the Trail Blazers don't have it. They have the lowest scoring reserves in the league. Portland has failed to cover nine of the last 11 times when playing with just one day rest. Portland also is 7-20-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Trail Blazers are off a one-point double overtime victory against Cleveland this past Saturday winning on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. That's what it took for the Trail Blazers to beat Cleveland. The Trail Blazers already have lost to Detroit and Washington on this current trip. It's not a fluke. Portland isn't very good this season ranking 29th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in points allowed per game at 101.8. Charlotte was ranked in the top 10 in both steals and blocks, a rare distinction. Unlike the Portland players, who just want to get home, the Bobcats have major motivation. The Bobcats suffered the worst loss in team history last Feb. 1 in Portland when the Trail Blazers rolled them, 112-68. It was the low point of the lowest of seasons. They want to avenge that loss in a big way. |
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12-01-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Golden State Warriors -4 | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Both Indiana and Golden State are playing well. But this spot and matchup set up well enough for the Warriors to cover this spread.
This is Indiana's third of four straight road games. The Pacers began their trip shocking the Lakers, 79-77, this past Tuesday. Frank Vogel is an underrated coach. He had four days to devise a game plan against the Lakers. Victory achieved. The Pacers then beat Sacramento, 97-92, on Friday night. The Pacers had two full days to practice and scheme for the Kings. Victory achieved. Now, however, Vogel has no time to specifically game plan and practice for the Warriors since Indiana played last night. Indiana is 1-2 ATS the past three times its played on the second night of back-to-back games. Golden State has won its last four home games beating Denver by one, Minnesota by 11, Brooklyn by nine and Atlanta by four. All of those teams except the Timberwolves are better than the Pacers. The Warriors are averaging eight points more per game than the Pacers. Minus their leading scorer Danny Granger, the Pacers' offense is down this season ranking near the bottom at 90.8 points per game. Indiana wins by playing tough defense, getting points in the paint and rebounding well. Golden State has been deficient in these areas - until this season. The perception is the Warriors are soft and not a good rebounding team. That perception is false. Golden State ranks fifth in rebounding margin, one spot ahead of Indiana. The Warriors have won the rebounding battle during each of their last five games by a combined 45 rebounds. Twice in this span they've outrebounded Denver, which is the No. 2 rebounding team in the NBA. The Pacers don't have enough firepower to outscore the Warriors, especially on the road when Golden State is more likely to dictate pace. The Pacers will try to control the paint and outrebound Golden State. I don't see that happening. David Lee is playing tremendous and the Warriors have greatly improved their defense ranking in the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage and in defending against 3-pointers. Indiana has lost in four of its last five visits to Oracle Arena. The Pacers also have a more important game on deck traveling to face division rival Chicago on Tuesday. |
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11-30-12 | Philadelphia 76ers -3 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
The 76ers are playing better realizing that Andrew Bynum is not coming back any time soon. Doug Collins is an excellent coach, adept at getting the best from his talent. The 76ers have talent despite missing Bynum, who I find to be the most overvalued big man in the game.
Jrue Holiday has emerged as one of the best point guards in the league averaging 18.5 points and 9.1 assists per game, which ranks him No. 3 in the NBA. Evan Turner is stepping up after coming on strong last season. Turner is averaging 17.8 points while shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor during his last six games. Charlotte has been the surprise of the season so far. The Bobcats are much improved from last season when they were the worst team in NBA history. But they're still not very good and they no longer have the element of surprise on their side. The Thunder buried the Bobcats, 114-69, this past Monday. The Bobcats played much better on Wednesday, but lost 94-91 to Atlanta. Now the Bobcats return home for the first time in four games. This will be their fifth game in eight days. The Bobcats rank second to last in field goal percentage at 40.7. They haven't shot above 35 percent from the floor in their last two games. Philadelphia gives up the fewest points on the road of any team at 87.4. |
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11-28-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Detroit Pistons -3 | Top | 77-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
This is the time to back Detroit as a favorite. Yes, a favorite.
The Pistons began the season losing their first eight games. But now they've turned things around going 4-3 in their last seven games, including winning their last three home contests. Lawrence Frank is doing a better job of figuring out his lineup. Elevating Kyle Singler into the starting lineup replacing a struggling Rodney Stuckey was the right move. The Pistons are playing better defense and catch Phoenix in a bad situational spot. The Suns are playing their third road game in four days. They have three more road games in a row after this one. Phoenix played the 76ers tough in Philadelphia in the opener of their current road swing losing by three. Then, last night, the Suns beat the Kyrie Irving-less Cavaliers, 91-78. What are the chances of the Suns turning in a third straight solid road performance? Phoenix is 1-10 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Suns are giving up 101.6 points per game even after holding the punchless Cavaliers to 78 points. The Pistons have revenge for a 92-89 loss suffered to the Suns in Phoenix on Nov. 2 when they were playing terrible. Stuckey was 0-for-7 from the field in that game scoring one point in 22 minutes. |
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11-27-12 | Toronto Raptors +5.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 101-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
Their won-lost record reads 3-11. But the Raptors are better than that as evidenced by a more convincing 7-7 ATS mark. The Raptors have lost four in a row since defeating Orlando by 11 at home.
In each of those four losses, though, the Raptors had the lead during the fourth-quarter. They lost a pair of one point road games to much-improved Charlotte and Detroit and then nearly upset San Antonio at home losing in double overtime on Sunday. The Raptors played the Spurs tough despite go-to-scorer Andrea Bargnani missing a staggering 19 of 21 shots from the floor. Toronto is 5-0 ATS following a straight-up loss. The Rockets last played on Friday at home when they played their finest game of the season crushing the Knicks, 131-103. The Rockets had little time to savor that great win, however. The daughter of their coach, Kevin McHale, died on Saturday. The organization has been in mourning since. It's not hard to envision the team thinking more about their grief-stricken coach rather than the Raptors. Another side note to this matchup is the return of point guard Kyle Lowry to Houston. The Rockets dealt Lowry to the Raptors this past year. Lowry is very underrated, a superior player to the more overpublicized Jeremy Lin, who is shooting less than 35 percent from the floor and has three more turnovers than assists in his last three games. The fiery Lowry wants this win bad. So does Bargnani who stunk up the joint against the Spurs. The Raptors are not nearly as bad as their record. They are going to be motivated for this matchup. Houston is nothing special, just a .500 team capable of beating elite teams and losing to bottom-feeders. The Rockets might come out fired-up, too. They also could be in a sad funk. The Rockets also could be thinking ahead as they play the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. |
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11-24-12 | Chicago Bulls +2.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 93-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
For the first time under the tenure of defensive guru Tom Thibodeau, the Bulls are saddled with a three-game losing streak. No, the Bulls aren't nearly as good as they were last season when they had Derrick Rose. But they aren't as bad as they've shown recently either.
Now the Bulls draw their favorite patsy, the Bucks. Chicago has beaten Milwaukee eight consecutive times, winning by an average of 11.1 points during this span. This is the first meeting of the year between the two teams although the Bulls defeated the Bucks, 100-94, in a home preseason game. The Bucks aren't a very good home team spread-wise failing to cover 21 of their last 29 at Bradley Center. The Bulls have covered in six of their last seven visits to Milwaukee. The Bulls are 12-4 SU when facing the Bucks under Scott Skiles, who used to coach the Bulls. The Bulls have the Bucks' number and will be highly motivated for this matchup. Thibodeau put his team through a 135-minute practice on Friday to specifically game plan for this matchup and sharpen his team's defense. Milwaukee nearly pulled a road upset this past Wednesday against Miami losing in overtime,113-106, but covered as 9 1/2-point 'dog. The Bucks are 1-8 ATS following a cover. |
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11-24-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Philadelphia is a very ordinary team weak offensively without a stable rotation.
The 76ers aren't at a stage right now where they can hang close with Oklahoma City. The Thunder are looking for redemption after a loss to Boston last night. The Thunder are 23-11 ATS following a defeat. They won't lack for motivation in this matchup and own a huge talent gap across the starting lineup. Before losing to the Celtics, the Thunder had won eight of their last nine going 6-3 ATS. All of their victories during this span except one were by at least six points. Oklahoma City is averaging 102.8 points per game and shooting 47.9 percent from the floor. Both are top-four figures. The 76ers rank second-to-last in points per game and field goal percentage. They are averaging 89.8 points, 13 points per game fewer than Oklahoma City. The 76ers are 3-3 in their last six games with their three victories coming at home against Utah, a terrible road team, Toronto and Cleveland. The 76ers' losses during this span have occurred to the Pistons and Bucks at home and Cavaliers in Cleveland, who were minus its best player, Kyrie Irving. The 76ers are just 2-9 ATS at home versus foes that have a winning road mark. The 76ers haven't been able to slow down Kevin Durant even when they had premier defender Andre Iguodala. Durant has averaged 29.4 points per game in the last five matchups against the 76es. The Thunder have defeated Philadelphia six times in a row. |
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11-23-12 | San Antonio Spurs -3.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The Spurs own the Pacers having defeated them 10 straight times, including a 101-79 blowout victory earlier this month. The Spurs beat the Pacers in that game despite Tony Parker making just three of 13 shots from the floor.
The Pacers are playing better, but there remains a huge gap between these two teams. The Spurs have only lost to two teams - the Knicks and Clippers whose combined record is 16-5. Indiana has defeated just one team above .500 and that's 7-6 Dallas. The Pacers' offense has gone down the tubes without leading scorer Danny Granger. Indiana ranks 27th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage. San Antonio ranks in the top 10 both offensively and defensively. Gregg Popovich is the most dangerous coach when having at least a day to game plan. San Antonio is 26-11-1 ATS when playing with one day rest. Indiana is 1-5 ATS following a victory. |
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11-21-12 | Toronto Raptors +2.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm not comfortable laying points with Charlotte and neither should you. The Bobcats are a shocking 5-4. They are much improved. Do note, though, that every one of their victories except one has been by four or fewer points. Their lone lopsided win came against winless Washington.
The Raptors aren't pretty, but they are a gutty bunch. They have covered five straight times when playing on zero rest. This includes three straight-up victories in three games this season when playing on the second of back-to-back days. The Bobcats are missing Gerald Henderson and reserve Tyrus Thomas. Charlotte is 1-7 ATS against opponents with a losing record. Star point guard Kyle Lowry is back for Toronto. |
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11-21-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Orlando Magic | Top | 74-90 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
This is a big game for Orlando, which begin a five-game homestand desperately needing a victory. I see the Magic getting that win against a Pistons squad they defeated, 110-106, on the road this past Friday.
The impressive thing about that victory against the Pistons wasn't just that it came on the road. The Pistons shot 53.7 percent from the floor and also out-shot the Magic from the free throw line connecting on 16 of 20 for 80 percent. Still, the Magic won. The key for the Magic in that game was the return of point guard Jameer Nelson, who had missed six games with groin and hamstring injuries. The Magic have good 3-point shooters in Arron Affalo and JJ Redick. The problem was that minus Nelson the Magic were turning the ball over too much and not getting their shooters in the right spots. Detroit ranks 21st in defensive field goal percentage. |
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11-20-12 | New York Knicks v. New Orleans Hornets +6 | Top | 102-80 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
The Hornets are one of those under-the-radar teams that quietly cashes nearly all the time when getting points at home. The Hornets are 11-2 ATS the last 13 times they've been a home 'dog.
The Knicks have been playing great. No knock on New York at all, I just see this as a tight defensive battle where the Hornets produce a strong effort and the game is tight. The Hornets are a good defensive team. However, they are off their worst defensive game of the season, a 117-113 loss to Milwaukee. The Hornets go on the road for four games after this matchup. So they should be focused, primed and highly motivated. After so many marquee games already this season, the Knicks can't be too excited about this game. New Orleans has covered 12 of its last 14 home contests. Star rookie big man Anthony Davis tweaked his ankle, but is expected to play so no worries there. |
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11-17-12 | New Orleans Hornets +8 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
New Orleans laid an egg last night at home against Oklahoma City trailing by as many as 34 points before losing, 110-95.
Look for a much better effort from the Hornets today. The Hornets are a top-10 defensive team and have been tremendous as an underdog covering 18 of the past 26 times in that role, including 4-2 this season. The Bucks are playing well, but are not strong enough to cover a mid-range number like this unless they produce an "A" game while their opponent plays horrible. I don't see the Hornets playing back-to-back horrendous games. They've defeated Milwaukee in 11 of the past 12 meetings. A key for the Hornets is defending Brandon Jennings, who is shooting just 34.7 percent in five career meetings against the Hornets. |
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11-16-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. New Orleans Hornets +7 | Top | 110-95 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
It's hard to go wrong backing the Hornets as an underdog. New Orleans is 18-7 ATS the past 25 times it has received points under Monty Williams, one of the more underrated coaches in the NBA. The Hornets have covered five of their six games so far, going 4-1 ATS when taking points.
Oklahoma City has a great offense led by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. New Orleans, though, is giving up the third-fewest points per game at 90.5. No opponent has managed to reach triple digits this season against New Orleans. A key to the Hornets' defensive success is they are the second stingiest team in letting opponents get to the free throw line. This is huge because the Thunder are the best free throw shooting team in the league sinking 84.3 percent. The Thunder are playing for the sixth time in nine days. This heavy duty schedule is taking a toll as the Thunder barely won at Detroit this past Monday and then on Wednesday lost by double-digits to Memphis. Durant and Westbrook each had to play more than 40 minutes in those games. |
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11-15-12 | New York Knicks v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | Top | 104-100 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Are the 5-0 Knicks really for real? Improved yes, but not in San Antonio's class. This matchup should prove it.
The Knicks caught the Heat in a flat spot and have reeled off wins against Dallas,Orlando and twice against Philadelphia in going 5-0. Aside from the Heat, I haven't been impressed in the early going with the 76ers, Magic or Mavericks, who also have lost to the Bobcats. Carmelo Anthony is off to a hot start. But the Knicks still are missing two starters, Amare Stoudemire and Iman Shumpert. The Knicks have lost their last nine games in San Antonio averaging just 88.6 points in those nine losses. The Spurs are 17-1 in their last 18 regular-season home contests. The Spurs are out of the gates fast, too, going 7-1. Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are all healthy, Gregg Popovich is the premier coach in the league and he has a stronger bench this season. The Spurs are 13-2-2 ATS versus Eastern Conference opponents. As good as the Knicks have been, there's still a class difference between these two clubs plus San Antonio is at home. |
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11-14-12 | Chicago Bulls -2 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 112-106 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
This is just Chicago's second road game of the season. It's the start of a five-game, 10-day road trip for the Bulls and their best opportunity to win. They've beaten the Suns three consecutive times in Phoenix.
The Bulls are primed for a strong effort after losing to Boston, 101-95, this past Monday. That was the first time Chicago has given up triple digits this season. Tom Thibodeau will have Chicago focused and ready for a much better game against the Suns, who lack a go-to scorer. The Bulls had the best road mark in the league last season and defeated Cleveland, 115-86, in their lone away contest this season. Chicago has a history of bouncing back strong off a loss going 39-18-2 ATS following a defeat. Despite giving up 101 to the Celtics, the Bulls rank fifth defensively giving up 90.4 points per game. The Suns, by comparison, rank 29th defensively surrendering 103 points a game. Only once have the Bulls been out-rebounded. Phoenix upset Denver, 110-100, at home this past Monday. The Suns have failed to cover eight straight times in their next game after posing a victory. Phoenix is 4-10 ATS at home versus winning teams and is 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests. The Suns are 4-4, a record that may surprise since the Suns aren't expected to do well this season. That record isn't impressive, though, considering the Suns don't own a victory against a foe with a winning record. Denver is off to a slow start and is at .500. The Suns' three other wins are against lottery-bound opponents Detroit, Charlotte and Cleveland. |
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11-13-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 84-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
In time the Lakers will turn things around. But that time isn't yet. The Lakers remain in disarray amid heavy distractions involving who is replacing Mike Brown. It's Mike D'Antoni much to Phil Jackson's displeasure. D'Antoni, though, won't be behind the Lakers' bench yet.
The Spurs are 6-1 and unlike the Lakers their players are in sync with clearly defined roles. Gregg Popovich is an elite coach. Bernie Bickerstaff is simply a fill-in. Popovich is at his best with time to prepare. The Spurs have covered the past eight times when having two days rest. The Lakers haven't faced a team the caliber of San Antonio. The toughest team the Lakers have faced have been the Clippers and Jazz and they lost those two games by a combined 19 points. The only victories the Lakers have cobbled together have been against Detroit, Golden State and Sacramento - three lottery bound clubs. The Lakers aren't help by having a cluster injury problem at point guard with Steve Nash and Steve Blake both out. |
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11-10-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Chicago Bulls -7 | Top | 80-87 | Push | 0 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have been a huge early-season surprise going 4-1. But Minnesota is due for a fall and finds itself in a horrible spot here.
The Timberwolves face an aroused Bulls squad that is off a tough nationally televised loss to Oklahoma City this past Thursday. The Timberwolves are extremely banged-up and off a tough two-point victory last night against a physical Indiana team that wasn't decided until the final second. This marks the Timberwolves' fifth game in seven days and second in two nights. Already without Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio - their two best players - Minnesota now must deal with a depleted backcourt with J.J. Barea not expected to play due to a sprained foot and Brandon Roy leaving last night's game with a sore knee, a problem that caused him to retire last season. The Bulls are 64-14 during the last two plus seasons at United Center. Chicago has won the last five against Minnesota, winning by an average of 15.8 points. The combination of Timberwolves' injuries and fatigue plus the Bulls being motivated and still a talented, excellent defensive team without Derrick Rose should ensure a double-digit victory. |
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11-09-12 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -4.5 | 84-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
Denver is home for just the second time. The Nuggets have played four of their first five games on the road. Their scoring is up after a bad first two games. Denver is averaging 106 points in its last three games despite being the second-worst free throw shooting team in the league. Expect the Nuggets to improve from the charity stripe while maintaining their league-leading scoring form of a year ago.
Utah beat the struggling Lakers at home in its last game this past Wednesday. The Lakers, though, are playing terrible. Utah plays much worse on the road. The Jazz have failed to cover in their last five road games. The Jazz are 0-3 ATS away from home this season losing to the Hornets by two, to the Spurs by 10 and to the Grizzlies by 9. The Nuggets are of similar quality to San Antonio and Memphis. Utah is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings at Denver, including losing six of the past eight times at Pepsi Center. |
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11-09-12 | Detroit Pistons +11.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
After getting past the Bulls on the road Thursday night in a tough nationally televised game, the Thunder are in a letdown spot traveling home to take on the winless Pistons.
The 0-5 Pistons should be primed to give a full effort. This is Detroit's fifth of six consecutive road game. They've been competitive in all but one of these games Detroit lacks talent, but the Pistons showed some grit this past Tuesday at Denver when they cut a 19-point deficit to six before losing by 12 as 10-point underdog. The Pistons then lost by two at Sacramento covering as 6 1/2-point 'dogs. The Thunder plays the Pistons again on Monday so the backdoor should be open as there is even less reason for Oklahoma City to run up a score. |
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11-09-12 | Milwaukee Bucks -3 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
The Wizards don't have the bench, nor the guard play, to match up well to Milwaukee with its explosive backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. Making things worse for the Wizards is they may be without Jordan Crawford, who averages 21.8 points in six career matchups versus Milwaukee. Crawford suffered a sprained ankle six days ago and limped through just 15 minutes in Washington's last game this past Wednesday.
Milwaukee had a weak frontcourt last season. The Bucks' frontline still isn't very good, but it doesn't have to take a backseat to the Wizards' cast of no-names. Washington still is missing Nene. The Bucks have been getting good play from Larry Sanders, who is emerging in his third season averaging 12.3 points and 8.3 rebounds while proving to be an excellent shot-blocker. The Bucks have fared well against the Wizards winning seven of the last nine in the series, while covering six of the last eight times on the road. |
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11-08-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 97-91 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
Don't read too much into the Bulls' 3-1 start and Oklahoma City just 2-2 after four games. The gap is much bigger than this short spread between these two teams with Derrick Rose out even with the Bulls playing at United Center. The Thunder hammered the Bulls, 92-78, at home in their lone meeting last season on April 1.
Chicago has played only one road game. The Bulls' opponents have been Sacramento, Cleveland, New Orleans and Orlando. None of these teams figures to make the playoffs. Here's a telling quote from Bulls center Joakim Noah, "... we need to play better. This isn't going to cut it against a better team. We've just got to keeping fighting." Oklahoma City has made the adjustment from James Harden to Kevin Martin. The Thunder will create a lot of matchup problems for the Bulls and not just with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Look for Serge Ibaka to come up big, too. |
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11-07-12 | Phoenix Suns -2 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 117-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Yes, Phoenix is down this season. The Suns no longer are a playoff contender. But they still have more talent than Charlotte especially with the Bobcats missing injured Gerald Henderson, who led the team in scoring last season and was playing well this year before going down with a sprained foot.
The Bobcats were the worst team in NBA history last season with a .106 winning percentage. They were terrible against the spread, too, covering just 35 percent of their games. The Bobcats are going to be improved this season, but they still will be the worst team in the league. This short point spread is an overreaction to the Suns getting blown out by Miami and Orlando during the first two games of their current road trip and the Bobcats upsetting Indiana, 90-89, in their season opener this past Friday. The Heat and Magic combined to make 24 of 37 shots from 3-point range against the Suns. That's a fluke 65 field goal percentage from beyond the arc. The Bobcats don't have that kind of perimeter game. Phoenix has better talent than Charlotte with underrated point guard Goran Dragic, Michael Beasley and Marcin Gortat, who leads the NBA in blocked shots at 3.5 per game. The Suns won't be overlooking the Bobcats as they try to salvage the final game of their three-game road trip, especially knowing the Bobcats beat Indiana. |
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11-06-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Denver Nuggets -10 | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
Both of these teams are 0-3. The Pistons are a legitimate bad team. The Nuggets are not.
Denver opened with three straight road games. The Nuggets shot poorly in their first two games with Danilo Gallinari missing the opener and struggling with his shot when he came back. Denver also is working in newcomer Andre Iguodala. The Nuggets led the NBA in scoring last season. They got their offense going in their third road game scoring 116 points against the defending world champion Heat. The Nuggets should have defeated Miami, but lost by three when Ray Allen made a miracle-type four-point play with six seconds left. This is a Stop the Pain game for the Nuggets, who have several days of rest and practice to get Gallinari back in rhythm and adjust to Iguodala, a major new presence. The Pistons are a natural victim. The Lakers got well at Detroit's expense this past Sunday. The previously winless Lakers beat Detroit, 108-79. This is the Pistons' third of a six-game road trip. The Pistons are losing by an average of 14 points during their three losses. Besides Greg Monroe, a decent but by no means outstanding player, the Pistons lack talent, chemistry and confidence. They are a team with no identity. Pistons coach Lawrence Frank still is seeking the right lineup - if his team even has one. The Nuggets are motivated, finally at home and have the explosive offense with a strong bench to easily win by double-digits against such a weak opponent. |
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11-05-12 | Golden State Warriors v. Sacramento Kings -2 | 92-94 | Push | 0 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
As expected the Kings dropped all three of their road games to begin the season. But the Kings showed promise playing much better defense. They should have covered two of the three losing by eight in overtime to Indiana as 7 1/2-point underdogs.
The oddsmaker has a good early feel on Sacramento. They've installed the Kings a basket favorite at home against Golden State, which is seeking its first 3-0 road start in 18 years. They are indicating Sacramento should win, which I agree. The Warriors are off an emotional 114-110 road win against the Clippers on Saturday after losing guard Brandon Rush for the season when he suffered a torn ACL during Friday's home loss to Memphis. Now it's the Kings who will be emotional playing at home for the first time and in desperate need of a victory. Keith Smart has Sacramento playing hard and with intensity. The offense should start to come because there are weapons. Tyreke Evans has looked impressive with the switch from point guard to off guard and Marcus Thornton is one of the best instant scorers off the bench. The Warriors sat out center Andrew Bogut in their win against the Clippers. He's expected to play,but has been averaging only around 18 minutes as he gets back into shape. Rush's injury puts the Warriors into a bind at shooting guard and small forward, where they lack depth. Harrison Barnes isn't ready yet to step in as a quality starter. |
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11-02-12 | Memphis Grizzlies +1 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 104-94 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
Golden State, with its lack of height, has problems matching up against the tall and physical Grizzlies. Memphis has won six in a row from the Warriors, including sweeping all four meetings last season.
The Warriors are trying to transition their trademark run-and-gun offense/no defense approach to more of a balanced attack. Monta Ellis is gone and 7-foot center Andrew Bogut is in. Bogut was healthy enough to play 18 1/2 minutes in the Warriors' opener after being out since Jan. 25 when he suffered a broken ankle. Bogut could help the Warriors reduce Memphis' size and rebounding advantage, but not so much in this matchup. The Warriors are taking it easy with Bogut in the beginning. His minutes probably will be limited again tonight and he's not expected to play on Saturday against the Clippers because it's a back-to-back spot. It's going to take time for the Warriors to get comfortable learning a new style. The Grizzlies led the NBA in steals and forced turnovers last season. They opened the season like they always do - with a loss. But the Grizzlies still came up with 14 steals and 22 turnovers against the Clippers in an 11-point road loss. The Grizzlies don't play again until Monday. I see them playing hard and much better than they did in their opener. They'll get the job done against a team they always beat and is in transition. |
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11-02-12 | Denver Nuggets -6 v. Orlando Magic | 89-102 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
Denver led the NBA in points per game last season at 104.1. The Nuggets have way too much scoring for Orlando, which no longer has Dwight Howard to clean up their defensive mess and cover up its many weaknesses.
Orlando is putting up a brave front acting excited about a new post-Howard era under first-year head coach Jacque Vaughn. Truth be told, though, the Magic are going to be terrible. While Howard's departure is a monster blow, the Magic also lost the much underrated Ryan Anderson. That really hurts their perimeter shooting and rebounding. The Magic were 5-12 without Howard last season. They are going to be among the worst teams in the league this year with a weak backcourt, no shot blockers and learning a new offense. The Magic lack a focal point on offense now with Howard gone. Vaughn will have the Magic play at a faster tempo, which fits right into the Nuggets' hands. Denver has one of the quickest point guards in basketball with Ty Lawson. George Karl has a much deeper bench than Vaughn even if Danilo Gallinari has to miss a second straight game due to a sprained ankle. Gallinari had a good workout on Thursday, but remains a game-time decision. The Nuggets can go big or small. Karl has a lot of versatility with his lineup because of his team's outstanding depth. The Nuggets have improved their defense, too, with the addition of Andre Iguodala. The Nuggets laid an egg in their opener, a bad road loss to the 76ers. Denver, though, is 9-1 ATS following a straight-up loss. There's a class difference between the Nuggets and Magic and Denver is not going to lack motivation after its poor opener. The Nuggets have covered 69 percent of their last 55 road games and are 6-0-1 ATS the past seven times playing Orlando, going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings at Orlando. |
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11-01-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -2.5 | Top | 84-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
The Spurs have been anxious for this matchup ever since the Thunder eliminated them in the Western Conference finals. The Spurs had a tough time last night beating the Hornets in New Orleans, but some of that was due to focusing on this game.
The Spurs will be a much different team tonight against the Thunder. Yes, it's the second of back to back games for San Antonio. But it's just the start of the season so the Spurs should have fresh legs. It's actually an advantage for San Antonio because they've played a game while the Thunder haven't. This also is the Thunder's first game without departed James Harden. The team still could be reeling from the organization's surprising decision to trade Harden on the eve of the season. Oklahoma City has a much weaker bench now without the NBA's top sixth man. It's very tough to cover, let alone win, for a visiting team in San Antonio. The Spurs are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 home games. |
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10-31-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets +6.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
The Hornets are anxious to put last season's injury-plagued disaster behind them, especially now that they have stability with solid ownership in place.
The Hornets are going to be much improved this season. San Antonio is a veteran team that typically starts slow and peaks during the spring right before the playoffs. I see the Spurs pacing themselves in this matchup with a much bigger game on Thursday when they take on their main rivals, Oklahoma City, on national television. The Thunder eliminated San Antonio in the Western Conference finals. That loss, coming after San Antonio had won the first two games, left the Spurs fuming all summer and pointing to the early-season matchup. First up, though, are the Hornets tonight. Because this is the first of a back-to-back situation, don't look for savvy Gregg Popovich to dole out big minutes to Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Popovich already has said he'll hold out Manu Ginobili, who has been dealing with back spasms. Popovich wants his Big Three fresh for Thursday's game against the Thunder. This game is far more important to New Orleans, which needs to get off to a good start to win back their fan base. The Hornets finished last season covering in their last nine home games. I like Monty Williams. He'll have the Hornets playing hard the entire game. Under Williams last season, the Hornets finished eighth in defense holding foes to 93.4 points a game. They should be even better this season with the addition of big man Anthony Davis, the No. 1 overall pick. Davis was impressive during preseason averaging 14.9 points, 9.9 rebounds and 1.6 blocks. |
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10-30-12 | Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 186 | 99-91 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
Both teams have new identities and key injuries that hurt them offensively. Neither team is remotely in sync yet.
Kobe Bryant hasn't practiced or played since suffering a bruised foot on Oct. 21. He's questionable to play. If the league's No. 2 scorer last year at 27.9 points per game does play, he'll be limited. His shot could be off, too, because of rust. Things are worse on the Dallas side where Dirk Nowitzki, the league's No. 8 scorer last year at 21.6, is out following knee surgery. The Mavericks aren't going to have center Chris Kaman either. He's nursing a strained Achilles'. This is a huge plus for the under as Kaman is far more offensive-minded than defensive-minded. His replacement is the well-traveled Eddy Curry, a wide body who has played 24 games during the past four years and is far less limited offensively than Kaman. The Mavericks are a team in transition. They are struggling right now. Where are their points going to come from with Nowitzki and Kaman out and Jason Terry gone to Boston? There's a new point guard, Darren Collison. He shot 44 percent from the floor last season. Newcomers O.J. Mayo and Elton Brand shot poorly during preseason. There's also a shortage of backcourt scoring with Delonte West suspended and then cut from the team on Monday. The Lakers have their own issues. They went 0-8 in preseason averaging just 85.8 points per game. That average would have put them on the bottom in scoring last year. It's going to take time for the Lakers' new superstars to get to know their teammates. Dwight Howard is a tremendous defensive force. He's a terrible free throw shooter. That could factor with Curry guarding him. Howard will be able to help out more than normal on defense since he doesn't have to worry about Dallas getting scoring from the center position. |
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10-30-12 | Boston Celtics +6.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 107-120 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
The Celtics have been thirsting for revenge ever since blowing a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference finals last season.
Seeing the Heat get their championship rings and former teammate Ray Allen on the Miami side is going to make Boston even more determined. Unlike other teams, the Celtics play the Heat tough. Boston has covered in eight of the last 11 meetings. The Celtics aren't just talking revenge. They went into the off-season determined to narrow the gap between themselves and the Heat. Even though the Celtics lost the aging Allen to the Heat, they still made improvements by becoming more athletic, faster and have more scoring options on the perimeter. Boston added an influx of youth, picked up Jason Terry to come off the bench and provide a spark along with Courtney Lee and have a healthy Jeff Green, who missed last season after undergoing heart surgery. Green played well during preseason. Sure the Heat have LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. But Boston has three potential Hall of Fame players, too, in Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo. The Heat figure to be distracted by the pregame awarding of the rings ceremony. It may take them a while to settle down and get in rhythm. Boston is taking this game very serious. It's grudge time for them. |
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10-30-12 | Washington Wizards +5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | 84-94 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
Washington's starting five of A.J. Price, Bradley Beal, Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor and Trevor Booker has to rank as one of the most obscure opening-day lineups in NBA history. The top reserves are Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton and Jordan Crawford.
But these guys give the Wizards what they've lacked in previous years - intensity, full effort and unselfishness. Gone is the lingering stench left from the Gilbert Arena period. Underachievers and head cases JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche and Nick Young have moved on. Chemistry and morale are up in Washington. The Wizards are going to be undervalued minus injured John Wall and Nene, their two most talented players. This opening game is a good example. The teams met less than three weeks ago during a preseason game in Cleveland. The Cavaliers were healthy. Their starters all logged more than 20 minutes. The Wizards were minus Wall, Nene, Okafor, Booker and Singleton. Yet Washington won, 99-95. Both teams have plenty of youth. The Cavaliers are in new territory here being a mid-range favorite. The Cavaliers, though, are only in Year 3 of the post LeBron James era in what probably is going to be five-year rebuilding job. Cleveland has failed to cover in 15 of its last 20 home contests. The Cavaliers' best player, point guard Kyrie Irving, had all four of his wisdom teeth extracted on Wednesday. He was bedridden until the weekend losing five pounds. He's likely to play, but he won't have all his strength and his minutes could be reduced. |
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06-19-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
If we've learned anything about this championship series it's that it is highly unpredictable.
Just when one team seems to assert dominance, the other team rallies. Now it's the Thunder's turn. Can Oklahoma City do it, though? The Thunder have proven resilient all season. They took out San Antonio after being down 2-0 and are 20-9 ATS the past 29 times following a straight-up loss. Miami is tough at home. Certainly I'll concede that point. However, Oklahoma City is not outclassed. I would argue the Thunder are the better team. Oklahoma City has more size and a better bench. Kevin Durant is proving unstoppable shooting 57 percent from the floor, which is nine percent better than LeBron is shooting. The Thunder also have proven themselves in Miami having covered in seven of their last nine visits. A major problem for the Thunder has been the subpar play of key reserve James Harden. The Heat have held him to 40.7 percent shooting from the field and 11.7 points per game, marks that are way down from his season averages. Harden is past overdue for a breakout game. If the Heat, with their smaller lineup, continue to key on Harden it will open things up more for the Thunder's big people. |
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06-17-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat OVER 193 | Top | 85-91 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 7 m | Show |
This is the lowest total of the series and there's no reason for it. Yes, the series is switching to Miami but that's not cause for the linesmaker to open Game 3 so low.
Oklahoma City is averaging 105.4 points in its last seven games. The Thunder scored 96 in their Game 2 loss despite shooting 43 percent from the floor, making 34.6 percent of their 3-pointers and sinking 73.1 percent from the foul line. These numbers are all down from their season average of 103.1 points per game, 47.1 percent shooting from the floor, 35.8 percent from beyond the arc and 80.6 percent shooting from the foul line. The Thunder have gone over in five of their last six road games. The Heat are 6-1-1 to the over in their past eight games. Miami has averaged 102.8 points during its last five home matchups. Those games were against Boston and Indiana, much stronger defensive teams than the Thunder. |
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06-14-12 | Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 195.5 | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City was the third-highest scoring team in the NBA during the regular-season averaging better than 103 points and the Thunder have taken it up a notch recently during the playoffs,
The Thunder are averaging 105.4 points during their last nine games. They put up that average against Miami in Game 1 this past Tuesday despite being rusty from being inactive for six days and shooting 74 percent from the foul line when their season average is an NBA-best 80.6 percent. The Thunder were able to easily run on Miami outscoring the Heat, 24-4, on fastbreak points. The Heat have no answer for Kevin Durant. Of course no one can defend LeBron James and Dwayne Wade when they're at the top of their games like James has been. James and Wade combined to make just 18 of 43 shots from the floor in Game 1. That's less than 42 percent. Expect better shooting from Miami's duo superstars. The Heat can't match the Thunder on the boards. So look for them to do more running. Game 1 was a feeling out game. Despite that the teams still combined for 199 points, going above the total. It's the 11th time in the last 16 meetings between the two clubs that the over has cashed. Expect more of a fast-pace in Game 2. The feeling out process is over. The Heat can't succeed playing half-court, especially in such a tough road venue. They were outscored, 56-40, in the paint. So look for the Heat to do more running contributing to a high pace game and plenty of points. |
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06-14-12 | Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -114 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
The Thunder battled jitters and a six-day rust period of not having played yet still beat Miami by 11 points in Game 1 this past Tuesday.
Yet the oddsmaker still stubbornly clings to the belief that Miami is better by opening the Thunder such a low home favorite again. The Thunder will be even more confident this game having outscored the Heat by 18 points in the second half. The Thunder settled down and committed only two turnovers in the second half. The Thunder have one of the strongest home-courts in basketball. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times they've been chalk. Miami is 0-7-1 ATS as a road 'dog. These are strong trends and they are backed up by fundamental matchup analysis that clearly favors the Thunder. Oklahoma City is the better rebounding team, has the better bench and has a superior offense. Kevin Durant is the one player who can outscore LeBron James. The Thunder outrebounded Miami by 10 in Game 1 and outscored the Heat by 16 points in the paint. The Thunder were the No. 3 scoring team in the NBA averaging 103.1 points per game. They've been even more dominant in the postseason averaging 105.4 points in their last nine games. Oklahoma City also was the best free throw shooting team in the league at 80.6 percent. The Thunder shot just 74 percent (20 of 27) from the foul line in Game 1 yet won by double-digit points. Maybe Miami gets back in this series. But if that happens, it's not going to come until the Heat return home. |
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06-09-12 | Boston Celtics +8 v. Miami Heat | Top | 88-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
This has been a tough series to get a grasp on, but the Celtics have the history, experience and due factor to cover this large number.
Miami, for all its glory and superstars, has yet to prove it is a clutch team. The Celtics aren't going to be intimidated in this setting and spot. Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo all should play much better than they did in Game 6. Boston has responded with a victory during five of the last six times following a loss in the playoffs. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Heat, including 4-1 ATS in Miami. Yes, Boston is the older team. But the Heat are only 1-4 ATS the past five times they've played on one day's rest. LeBron James had a game for the ages in Game 6. One of his many impressive statistics was going 8-for-14 shooting from the floor when being isolated by Boston. Keep in mind that during the first five games of the series, James was 9-for-30 shooting when being keyed on by the Celtics. Improved play from Boston's proven stars and James having anything less than a monster performance should be enough for the Celtics to stay within this big number. |
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06-05-12 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -8 | Top | 94-90 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
I don't see the Celtics having anything left in the tank for this matchup, This is the aging Celtics' fifth game in 10 days.
The Celtics did what they had to do - win twice at home to tie the series, including going overtime this past Sunday. But the physical and emotional cost was high. The Celtics' tired legs already were on display in the second half during Sunday's Game 4 when Miami outscored the Celtics, 42-28. The Heat are younger and more athletic. They will take advantage. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are in their prime. The same can't be said for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. James and Wade are going to get their points. The same can't be said for Boston's Big Three. It's a nice plus for Miami if Chris Bosh can play. The Celtics can't be trusted to score enough to keep this game close. Boston is averaging 86.2 points in eight playoff games. That average shrinks to 83.2 points per game if you take away the 107 points the Celtics put up against the 76ers. Miami is 7-1 at home in the playoffs. The Heat are 6-1 ATS when laying seven or more in the playoffs. |
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06-04-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 202 | Top | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
San Antonio has the best offense its ever had under Gregg Popovich. The Spurs have gone above 100 points in 20 of their last 22 games.
If you discount Game 3, the Spurs are averaging 108 points in this series. Oklahoma City is averaging 107.3 points during the series. That's a combined average of better than 215 points, which would soar above this total. Both teams ranked in the top three in scoring and field goal percentage during the regular season. In their last eight head-to-head matchups, the Thunder and Spurs have gone over six times. |
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06-02-12 | San Antonio Spurs +4 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Oklahoma City played hard and well in dispatching the Spurs, 102-82, during Game 3 of this Western Conference finals.
The Thunder caught the Spurs by surprise by frequently switching on defense. That took the Spurs out of their rhythm and was a key in San Antonio scoring the fewest points it has all season. But let's not overreact to one game. San Antonio had won its previous 20 games. The Spurs will be more prepared for the Thunder's multi-facet defense this time. The gamble in frequently switching off defensively is that the offense can take advantage by creating mismatches. Gregg Popovich's is a tremendous coach. This is the best offense he's had in San Antonio. He has the talent and versatile players to adjust and get his team back on track. You always hate to lose a playoff game, but this was a major wake-up call for the Spurs. They will match the Thunder's intensity from now on. San Antonio has a tremendous record in bouncing back from a loss covering eight of the past nine times. They also are 9-4 ATS when taking points. The Spurs have proven themselves on the road, too, going 18-8-3 ATS. Oklahoma City is 3-9 ATS the past 12 times it has played at home when facing an opponent with an above .500 road mark. |
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06-01-12 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics -2 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Normally I would look to fade the aging Celtics when playing for the fourth time in seven days. Not this time, though.
Home-court and playing with the desperation of an 0-2 team will get Boston past Miami in this Game 3 matchup. Rajon Rondo is playing at the highest level. However, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce - Boston's Big Three - are a combined 34 for 89 shooting from the floor. They are better shooters than this. Yes Boston has tired legs. But coming home is huge. The Celtics are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home contests. The Heat are 0-5-1 ATS the last six times they've been a road 'dog. Boston has been hurt by fouls. The officials did serve up some home-cooking to the Heat. It's realistic to believe that if the Celtics don't at least get the benefit of some calls, at least they won't be hurt by bad calls. The Heat had 18 second-chance points in Game 2. The Celtics will clamp down on this. This is the Celtics' game to win. I see them getting the job down here based on adrenaline spurred on by their crowd, veteran savvy. a fair break on fouls and the continued brilliance of Rondo. |
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05-31-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 206 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
Lose this game and the Thunder very well could get swept. The zig/zap theory, which I do respect, says Oklahoma City. But I can't lay points into a San Antonio team that has won 20 in a row and so far has looked superior to the Thunder in all facets.
This leaves the total for which one play is worth an investment - under. As good as Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden are, they aren't going to make a combined 30-for-54 field goals like in Game 2, nor is Tony Parker going to make 16 of 21 shots from the floor. The Spurs have sharpened their defense during the playoffs giving up an average of 91.9 points per game during their 10 postseason matchups. Oklahoma City has been playing hard. I see the Thunder going all out, though, to crack down on the Spurs' pick-and-roll game, which has been highly effective. The Spurs are a much better offense team than some perceive, but their perimeter game is far from a sure thing. Down 2-0, the Thunder need to slow down the pace in order to guard against the Spurs' pick-and-roll and to make that extra pass, which Thunder coach Scott Brooks has stressed leading up to this game. The pressure is all on the Thunder here. Because of that, I see them being more methodical than usual and caring on defense. The Thunder aren't a great defensive team, but they are better than they've showed. |
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05-26-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics OVER 170 | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 49 m | Show |
Based on Game 6, points should be hard to come by in this Game 7 matchup. A lot of people feel this way. I don't.
I see the 76ers and Celtics easily going over this extremely low total. While Game 6 was a dead nuts under, the previous three games in this series went over the total. The average combined point total during Games 3, 4 and 5 was 185 points, which easily would exceed this Game 7 total. The 76ers pounded the Celtics in the paint at home in Game 6. Kevin Garnett had a lot of trouble in the low post. I see the Celtics scoring much more in the paint in this matchup. The 76ers know they can't get away with going toe to toe against the Celtics inside in Boston. The 76ers are younger and quicker. They will try to exploit those edges by forcing a quick tempo. They will want to run - a key factor in going over. The over has cashed in 12 of the 76ers' last 16 games. The Celtics also aren't going to back away from speeding up the pace with Rajon Rondo. He needs to push the ball in order to set up Garnett and Boston's other key veterans. Boston has been playing every other day during the playoffs. Now the Celtics will have had two full days of rest having last seen action this past Wednesday. Note that six of the last eight meetings between these two division rivals has gone above the total. The oddsmaker has over adjusted based on a freaky Game 6 result. |
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05-24-12 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
As great as LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are, the Heat have too many serious roadblocks to overcome to cover in this Game 6.
While the focus always is on James and Wade, the Heat have a depleted front-court. Chris Bosh is out and Udonis Haslem is suspended. Little used Dexter Pittman also is suspended. The Pacers are not a good team to match up against when missing key frontcourt players such as Bosh and Haslem. Bosh was the Heat's major inside scoring threat while the underrated Haslem was a key to Miami's rebounding, defense and doing a lot of the important little things. This has turned into a rough and rugged series. The Pacers will be highly motivated and emotional after being called soft by Larry Bird and with their playoff lives at stake. They were beaten and bullied in Miami. That won't be the case at home. Miami isn't the same team on the road. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. They are just three games above .500 on the road. More telling, they are 4-11 ATS on the road versus opponents with a home winning percentage of .600 or higher. The Pacers have been big money-makers in this type of role covering seven of the last nine times they were short 'dogs of up to 4 1/2 points. |
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05-23-12 | Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 | Top | 75-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Surprised to see the 76ers favored? I'm not. The Celtics are a losing team on the road.
The 76ers have the motivation, young legs and depth to force a Game 7. The Celtics aren't to be trusted especially knowing they would be home for Game 7 if necessary. Boston has the marquee stars. But these teams are close in talent. The 76ers own the stronger bench. The 76ers have responded every time following a loss in the playoffs going 4-0 in their next game. Boston, on the other hand, is 2-5 off a victory. The aged Celts are 1-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. They have failed to cover during five of their last six trips to Philadelphia. The Celtics are 17-21 away from Boston this season, including the playoffs. |
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05-20-12 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers OVER 177 | Top | 101-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The first three games of this series have all gone under the total. The teams are averaging a combined 167 points. So why buck the system here and go over?
Several factors. This total is down nine points from the Game 1 over/under number. So there's been a huge adjustment. The Heat averaged 98.5 points per game during the regular season. That was good for seventh-best. They shot an NBA fourth-best 46.9 percent from the floor while connecting on 35.9 percent of their 3-point shots. During this series, however, the Heat are averaging 81.7 points and shooting 37.6 percent from the field. They have made only 5-of-42 shots from beyond the arc for a 3-point percentage of less than 12 percent. Yes, some of this has to do with Indiana's defense. But it's also the result of unreasonably bad shooting that can't continue to be this poor especially from 3-point range. Chris Bosh being out definitely hurts Miami's offense. I see LeBron James and Dwayne Wade picking up the slack even more in this crucial game for the Heat, though. Wade is going to shoot a lot better than he did in Game 3. He's a superstar who can't be kept down. Indiana's scoring and shooting also is down and due for a correction. The Pacers are putting up 86 points per game during this series after averaging 97.7 during the regular season. Their 3-point shooting percentage is down from 36.8 percent, which ranked sixth during the regular season, to 32.6 percent. Both teams have been missing an inordinate amount of free throws, too. Miami is making 72.9 percent of its free throws after averaging 77.5 percent in the regular season. The Pacers are hitting 75.6 percent of their free throws after making 77.5 percent of their charity tosses during the regular season. This game is going to be intense. James and Danny Granger have been going at it hot and heavy. It wouldn't be surprising if a lot of free throws were shot in this Game 4. The Pacers are a physical team looking to gain a breakthrough. They very well may get it. I'm not a conspiracy theorist yet I don't trust the NBA or the networks. They have to be rooting for James, Wade and the high-profile Heat rather than the small market Pacers who lack marquee stars. So the Heat, particularly James and Wade, could be making frequent trips to the free throw line. Keep in mind, too, the short pointspread range. So it's not inconceivable that this game could go into overtime. It's certainly not asking too much for each team to reach 90 points. The NBA playoffs are all about zigging and zagging. This is the time to zag and take the over. |
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05-18-12 | Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers -2 | Top | 83-92 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
The veteran, aging Celtics caught the 76ers by surprise during this past Wednesday's Game 3 by doing a lot of running.
That wasn't something the 76ers were expecting. Not only are the 76ers going to be more prepared, but also they will be at their peak intensity level knowing a loss puts them down 3-1. The Celtics are going to pay a price for their winning strategy in Game 3 - tired legs. Playing every other night during the playoffs following a grueling compressed schedule is going to take a big toll on the Celtics in this matchup. Don't be surprised if Boston's gas tank registers empty for this road matchup. The Celtics have not been a strong road team either going 15-18 during the regular season. The 76ers have covered four of the last five times they've hosted Boston. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall meetings with Boston. Having dispatched the heavily favored Bulls in their opening series and splitting two one-point games in Boston, the 76ers aren't going to be intimidated by the Celtics' mystique and superstars. Philly has by far the younger legs and a better bench. Look for the 76ers to tie up the series with a solid victory in this matchup. |
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05-16-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -8 | 75-77 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
The Thunder are the dominant team in this matchup, especially when playing at home. That was proven when they beat the Lakers, 119-90, this past Monday night.
It is on the Lakers to make the proper adjustments. I don't believe Lakers coach Mike Brown is capable of making the right moves, at least until his team gets back to Los Angeles. The Lakers have failed to cover 17 of the past 23 times when playing on just one day's rest. The Lakers have been brutal on the road all season. They don't have the young legs and athleticism of the Thunder. This is a bad matchup for the Lakers. The Thunder has the big people to bother Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Oklahoma City has covered in six of its last eight home meetings against the Lakers. Los Angeles doesn't have the defensive stoppers to keep in check Oklahoma City's pick-and-roll game. Ron Artest, or whatever name he's calling himself these days, no longer has the ability to clamp down on star scorers such as Kevin Durant. Russell Westbrook and Durant combined for 58 percent shooting from the floor against the Lakers. It wasn't a fluke. A key for the Lakers is defensive pressure. Yet the Lakers could force only four turnovers in Game 1 against a Thunder squad that was the most turnover-prone team in the league. The Lakers have been a money-burner in this role going just 1-7 ATS as a playoff underdog. Don't think the Thunder are going to take their foot off the gas either if they build a big lead after Artest's cheap elbow shot knocked out James Harden. |
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05-15-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs -11.5 | Top | 92-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
Gutty performance for the Clippers winning Game 7 on the road against Memphis this past Sunday. It was the first time the Clippers have ever won a Game 7.
Unfortunately for the Clippers, this quick turnaround leaves them highly vulnerable for this matchup. The Spurs have had more than a week to rest and prepare. No coach is better with additional prep time than Gregg Popovich. No team is hotter than San Antonio either. The Spurs are riding a 14-game winning streak. They are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. The Spurs will be ready. The same can't be said of the Clippers, who are drained and battered. Blake Griffin is playing on one leg. If this weren't a playoff game, he would be sitting out. Chris Paul is dealing with hip and groin injuries. Caron Butler has a broken left hand. The Clippers upset Memphis in Game 7 thanks to a great bench performance and the Grizzlies choking. That combination isn't going to happen here. The Spurs have a strong bench, thanks in part to a masterful job by Popovich of resting his veterans during the regular season to get his reserves more quality time, and the Clippers can't count on Randy Foye and Nick Young. These are Washington Wizard castoffs after all. I'm not deterred by the double-digit spread. The Spurs are 10-1 ATS the last 11 times they've given up 11 or more points. San Antonio also is 10-3 ATS versus the Clippers. |
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05-15-12 | Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
The Pacers were right with the Heat until the final few minutes in Game 1. Now the Heat don't have Chris Bosh, out with an abdominal strain. It's a huge loss for Miami.
The Pacers really have a huge size advantage now. Miami is hurt both offensively and defensively without Bosh. Bosh gave Miami a low-post scoring presence, which helped free up double-teams on LeBron James and Dwayne Wade. Now the Heat's scoring options are more limited. The Pacers certainly will be anticipating more pick-and-rolls for James and Wade. Miami has the best home mark in the Eastern Conference, but the Pacers have played well down the stretch and on the road. They had won seven straight away matchups until losing to Miami in Game 1. Spread-wise, this has been an underdog series with the favorite going just 10-24-1 ATS during the past 35 meetings. |
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05-14-12 | Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 82-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Boston owns the star power, but these two teams are very even.
The Celtics have playoff experience and bigger names. The 76ers have younger legs, are more athletic and have a deeper bench. The statistics were nearly even in Game 1. The Celtics won, 92-91, after falling behind by 10 points in the last quarter. Boston sank 18 of 19 free throws for the game. I don't see the Celtics connecting on nearly 95 percent of their free throws again. The 76ers outscored Chicago in their first-round series every time during the final period. The 76ers aren't intimidated by the Celtics. They learned a tough lesson in Game 1. I see them confident and prepared to pull the upset in Game 2 after coming so close this past Saturday. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett continue to play big minutes without much rest between games. Tired old legs could catch up to Boston in this matchup. |
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05-13-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -8 | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
Yes, Indiana is much improved. The Pacers also have played well down the stretch against the big boys, which has been impressive.
But the Pacers aren't strong enough to keep things close against Miami in American Airlines Arena, where the Heat are 31-5 counting their three home wins versus the Knicks in Round One of the playoffs. The Pacers are sailing in unchartered waters being in the second round of the playoffs against an elite foe. The Heat need to make an early statement in this playoff series. Pacers coach Frank Vogel's comments about the Heat doing a lot of flopping may have closed any back-door possibilities his team had of Miami letting up late if it builds a big lead. Indiana has excellent height. The Heat, though, are an underrated rebuilding team. They finished first in defensive rebounding, a category the Pacers were 17th in. The Heat also has not only the two best players on the court - LeBron James and Dwayne Wade - but also the third-best in Chris Bosh. I would take Bosh over Danny Granger, Indiana's best player. Granger is just a 40.5 percent shooter from the floor career-wise versus the Heat. |
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05-10-12 | Atlanta Hawks +6.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
Atlanta is a much more dangerous team with All-Star big man Al Horford back from pectoral surgery. Horford and Josh Smith give the Hawks a key edge in the paint.
The Hawks have playoff experience. They are talented enough to take the next level - that of knocking off a quality playoff foe. That very well could happen if the Hawks win this game since they would then host Game 7. All season, the Hawks have played to the level of competition. They've been better against tougher foes while relaxing against lesser opponents. The Hawks have covered six of their last seven road contests. They are 9-4 ATS as underdogs. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money seven of the past nine times these teams have met. Aside from Rajon Rondo, the core of the Celtics aren't in their prime. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett are all over-the-hill. They may have enough left to pull this game out, but covering this mid-range number is asking too much of aged Boston against a quality foe looking to take the next step up. |
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05-08-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls OVER 171.5 | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
Philadelphia and Chicago are two very strong defensive clubs. But this total is too low.
Yes, the two teams went under this number during Games 3 and 4. That was in Philadelphia. This matchup is in Chicago where the teams averaged better than 197 points combined in Games 1 and 2. Each team just needs to reach 85 points for this total to go over. The 76ers and Bulls got to 171 in Game 4 this past Sunday despite shooting only 40 and 39 percent from the floor. In Game 3, the teams shot just 34 and 37 percent from the field. The defenses are strong - but not that strong. A correction is in order and it won't take much of that to nudge this one over. The 76ers, for instance, have gone over 85 points in 13 of their last 14 games. The Bulls have scored at least 85 in 12 of their past 16 games. Joakim Noah is out for the Bulls. That hurts the over, but the Bulls have had a full game now to adjust to Noah's absence. The flip side of Noah being out is it makes 76ers center Spencer Hawes a much more feared offensive player. Hawes scored 22 points hitting nine of 11 shots from the floor during Sunday's 76ers' victory. Hawes was having an excellent season until getting hurt. He's healthy now and a offensive force with Noah out. |
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05-06-12 | Atlanta Hawks +5.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 79-101 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
The Celtics have grabbed a 2-1 series lead courtesy of their overtime victory against Atlanta in Game 3. But the series is taking a toll already on Boston particularly aging veterans Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.
Both have been playing big minutes. Celtics coach Doc Rivers is going to have to reduce their minutes, or their effectiveness is going to diminish. I see Boston not being as intense partly because of this. The Hawks need this game desperately and will be going all out. The Hawks took Game 3 to overtime despite missing Josh Smith, their best all-around player. The versatile Smith can play center, which is huge with Atlanta missing Al Horford. Smith missed Game 3 due to a sprained knee but vows to play in this game. The Hawks have covered the past six times following a straight-up defeat. They are 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've been road 'dogs. Boston is going to be hard-pressed to win by a margin - if the Celtics even manage to win this game. The Celtics are 3-15 ATS when laying between five and 10 1/2 points. |
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05-04-12 | Chicago Bulls +1.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
I don't care if Derrick Rose is out and Philadelphia is home, Chicago should not be an underdog.
The Bulls are at least one level higher than the 76ers even without Rose. Philadelphia finally played a good game in blowing out the Bulls in Chicago. Don't look for the 76ers to shoot 59 percent from the floor like they did in Game 2. The Bulls have tremendous pride in their defense under Tom Thibodeau. Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer both had off games. That won't happen again. The Bulls have proven they can win on the road and without Rose. They have covered 21 of their last 31 away contests. The 76ers are not a dominant home club. They have failed to cover in their last five home games, while losing their past four home contests straight-up. While Rose being out of the playoffs rates a headline, the 76ers' best player, Andre Iguodala, is less than 100 percent due to Achilles' tendonitis. Iguodala is the key to the 76ers' fast-break and also a top defender. If he's not 100 percent, the 76ers might be forced to play more half-court, which fits into the Bulls' hands. |
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05-03-12 | Miami Heat -5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 87-70 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
Miami has won the first two games of this series by a combined 43 points. Now the scene shifts to New York so the spread is much lower with the Knicks down 0-2.
But the Knicks don't have the heart and key bodies to keep this game close. New York's backcourt is down Jeremy Lin, Inman Shumpert, its top perimeter defender, and Baron Davis is limited by a back injury. In the forecourt, Amare Stoudemire is out and center Tyson Chandler has been battling the flu. The Heat smell blood. They want this series over with fast so there will be no letdown. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade have strong histories when playing at famed Madison Square Garden. The Heat are 4-1 ATS during their past five visits to New York. The Heat also have covered nine of the past 11 times they've been playoff favorites. |
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05-02-12 | Utah Jazz +11.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 83-114 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Utah received a humbling lesson in Game 1, losing to the Spurs, 106-91.
The Jazz found out the hard way that veteran, playoff savvy teams like the Spurs turn things up a notch in the playoffs. Expect the Jazz to be more mentally prepared for this matchup and also to play harder particularly in guarding point guard Tony Parker. Utah has the height and talent to stay within this double-digit pointspread range. The Jazz entered the post-season playing well winning seven of their last nine, including the past five. They earned their way into the more competitive Western Conference playoffs. They are a team worthy of respect. The Jazz, though, have a lot of youth. That inexperience showed in Game 1. Lesson learned. Utah is going to be more physical in this matchup. More important, the Jazz have the necessary big people to be effective with this kind of motivation. The Jazz have a tough front line with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Derrick Favors. The Spurs' front line probably is going to be down a key reserve with backup center Tiago Splitter doubtful with a left wrist injury. The Spurs haven't been great as a playoff favorite going 1-5-1 ATS in that role. |
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05-01-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls -6.5 | Top | 109-92 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau is taking some unfair heat for leaving Derrick Rose in the game when the Bulls had Game 1 in hand against the 76ers. Rose tore his anterior cruciate ligament and is out for the rest of the playoffs.
I expect the Bulls to respond to Rose's injury and the criticism of their coach with a huge effort. Even without Rose, the Bulls are good enough to cover this number at home against Philadelphia. The Bulls didn't have Rose for 27 games this season and still won 18 of those contests. The Bulls hosted the 76ers on March 17 in the team's last regular-season meeting and Chicago won by nine despite Rose not playing. Chicago has covered four of the past five times it has hosted Philadelphia. The 76ers beat up bad teams - especially at home - but failed all season to step up when playing elite foes. They are 2-10 ATS the past 12 times they've faced opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Philadelphia is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times it has been an underdog. |
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04-30-12 | Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers -9 | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Indiana's lack of playoff experience showed when it was upset at home, 81-77, this past Saturday in Game 1 by Orlando.
Expect the Pacers to be better prepared this time and not to take the Dwight Howard-less Magic lightly. The playoff-tested Magic were successful in getting the Pacers to play their halfcourt style of game. Indiana only had five fastbreak points. The Pacers didn't shoot well either from the floor or foul line where they were 13 of 22. The Magic turned in their "A" defensive game. I don't see the Magic doing that again as the Pacers will be determined to run more. Indiana knows its season is on the line as it can't go to Orlando down 0-2 in the series. The Pacers were playing well heading into the postseason going 12-3. I see them regaining the momentum with Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert coming up big. They are the two best players on the court with Howard out. |
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04-29-12 | Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks -1.5 | Top | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
Boston may very well win this series, but I don't see the Celtics stealing Game 1 from the Hawks in Atlanta.
The Hawks are younger than Boston, have home-court advantage and have paid enough playoff dues to be considered a serious contender to reach the Eastern Conference finals now that Chicago's Derrick Rose has been sidelined for the rest of the season. Home-court advantage can't be underestimated here. The Hawks were 23-10 at home during the regular season. Boston was 15-18 on the road. The Celtics' last road game was on April 20 at Atlanta. The Hawks won, 97-92, although the Celtics did hold out their key players, including Rajon Rondo. The Celtics may be without Ray Allen, who has missed the last two weeks with a sore ankle. The Hawks have made strides during the past few years. They are ready to step up now. This is their chance. A Game 1 loss could prove devastating to their fragile egos - and they know it. The Hawks will be ready. |
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04-28-12 | Dallas Mavericks +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 98-99 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
The defending world champion Mavericks certainly are down from last season. But they have enough veteran savvy, pride and talent to make things close.
Oklahoma City isn't playing well. The Thunder are not an elite defensive team and were not sharp down the stretch. They are just 7-7 in their last 14 games, including 3-3 during their past six home contests. Dallas has lost by an average of just three points in its two visits to Oklahoma City this season. The road team is 17-4-1 ATS in this series. The Mavericks have enjoyed great pointspread success in Oklahoma City going 13-3-1 ATS. The Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times they've been playoff 'dogs. Dallas is the more experienced playoff team and gave up nearly three points fewer per game than the Thunder. James Harden is expected to play for Oklahoma City, but he figures to be rusty seeing his first action since suffering a concussion. |
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04-23-12 | Toronto Raptors +10.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 86-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
It's a mistake to take Toronto lightly, which the oddsmaker is doing. Since March 28, the Raptors have upset Denver, Philadelphia and Boston. The Raptors are 8-3 ATS versus foes with a winning home mark.
The spread is high because this is a must-win spot for the Bucks. Let's face it, though, the Bucks aren't going to make the playoffs. For that to happen, the Bucks would need to win their final three games while the 76ers lose their last three games. The 76ers tip off an hour earlier than the Bucks tonight. The 76ers are big favorites against the Nets. There's a possibility the Bucks could find out the 76ers have closed them out even before their game against the Raptors is finished. That would be very mentally deflating and certainly open up the back-door. The Raptors, though, probably aren't going to need a back-door as they should be competitive all the way with Milwaukee. The Bucks haven't responded well to the pressure losing five of their last seven games. Milwaukee has failed to cover 10 of the past 14 times it has been home chalk. Only twice since the start of February have the Bucks won by more than 10 points at home. Toronto has been a solid money-making road club all season cashing 59 percent of its away matchups. The Raptors don't get enough respect from the marketplace. That's the case again. |
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04-22-12 | New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks -2.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The good news for the Knicks is they are in the playoffs. The bad news is there's nothing the Knicks really can do to avoid meeting either Chicago or Miami in the first round of the playoffs.
The Hawks are a better team than the Knicks, have home-court and won't lack for motivation. The Hawks are trying to secure home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. They need to beat out Orlando and Boston to accomplish that. The teams met three weeks ago in Atlanta and the Hawks won by 10 as three-point favorites. Atlanta is 8-3-1 ATS the past 12 times it has been chalk. This is a very short number for the Hawks to cover. |
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04-20-12 | Golden State Warriors +12.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
Done in by injuries and the trade of Monta Ellis, Golden State has dropped 18 of its last 22 games.
Things have gotten so bad that the Warriors were mentioned on ESPN during a report on tanking for a high lottery pick. The Warriors were mad about this. I expect them to go all out in this matchup. Dallas can clinch a playoff berth with a win in this game. Winning and covering by more than 10 points, though, are two different things. The Mavericks do not have a good history when it comes to covering a large number at home. They are 6-18 ATS when laying 11 or more at home. The last time Dallas won by more than 10 points at home was on Feb. 20, a span of 15 home games. The Warriors are the youngest team in the league right now starting four rookies. One of these rookies is Klay Thompson, who is playing very well averaging 23.5 points in his last four games. Yes, that's a lot of inexperience for Golden State. But it's also fresh legs, which is so important at this late stage of a condensed and compressed NBA schedule caused by the lockout. The Mavericks happen to be the oldest team in the league. This marks Dallas' fourth game in six days. The Mavericks play at Chicago on Saturday. The backdoor is wide open here for the Warriors, whose young players can be counted on to play hard the entire game as they audition for next season. As bad as Golden State has been from a straight won-lost perspective, the Warriors have been big money-makers on the road covering 11 of their last 14 away contests. |
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04-19-12 | Houston Rockets v. New Orleans Hornets +5 | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Houston is fighting for a playoff spot. New Orleans is lottery bound. Hence a lopsided spread.
The Rockets probably will come out hard, but they are not playing well enough to be installed as this high of a road favorite. Houston has lost five in a row, allowing an average of more than 107 points per game during this span. New Orleans is the superior defensive team. The Hornets rank in the top 10 in defense and are No. 2 in defensive 3-point percentage. The 3-point shot is a key weapon for the Rockets, whose one-time bench strength has been reduced by injuries and wear and tear of the condensed season. The Hornets are playing loose - and well. They've won four of their past five yielding an average of less than 83 points per game during this time frame. The Hornets have covered seven of the last eight times versus Houston. The Hornets have been a huge money-maker taking points covering 21 of the past 29 times as a 'dog. This includes seven straight covers as a home 'dog. |
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04-18-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -3 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 109-97 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
Phoenix has done a nice job of making a playoff run. Steve Nash still is a great talent. But the Suns are nowhere near the class of Oklahoma City.
The Thunder rank with Chicago, Miami and San Antonio as one of the four best teams in the NBA. The Suns have fared well against lesser foes, but haven't been able to step in against these elite teams. They are 0-7 versus these foes, including 0-2 to Oklahoma City losing by 11 and 10 points. Oklahoma City is in a tight battle with San Antonio for the best record in the West. So the Thunder not only will be playing hard and focused in this matchup, but they are off a humiliating loss blowing a nine-point halftime lead in a 92-77 road loss to the Clippers this past Monday. The Thunder were held to an embarrassing 25 second-half points. The Thunder are 17-6 (74 percent) ATS in their next game after not covering the spread in their previous game. Oklahoma City also matches up well to the Suns, who do not have a great bench and are small in the paint. The Thunder have beaten Phoenix five straight times. They are 12-4 ATS during their last 16 visits to Phoenix. Ancient Grant Hill probably is still the Suns' best defender. He missed Phoenix's last game this past Monday with a sore knee and would be limited to keep Kevin Durant in check even if he were able to play against the Thunder, which is iffy. |
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04-17-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 | 112-91 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
It's not often the Lakers are home underdogs even minus Kobe Bryant. But they are right now. The Lakers cashed as home 'dogs earlier this season against Miami and Chicago. They are 7-1 ATS the past eight times they've been 'dogs of up to 4 1/2 points.
Bryant remains out, but the Lakers have been playing well without him winning three in a row. Los Angeles' big people are stepping up and Matta World Peace is playing his finest ball of the season. I expect the Spurs to play hard in this matchup, but there's always the possibility of Gregg Popovich resting his three star starters - Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Popovich has been unpredictable in this regard, usually waiting until near tip-off to make that decision. Obviously that would be a huge plus if that were to occur locking into the Lakers' dog number right now. But I like the Lakers to win straight-up, if not cover this number, regardless. They have beaten San Antonio during the past three meetings, winning by an average of 13 points. They are 10-4 ATS versus the Spurs during the last four meetings. |
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04-16-12 | Atlanta Hawks -4.5 v. Toronto Raptors | 109-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Revenge can be overrated in the NBA. But not in this quickest of turnarounds.
Toronto shocked Atlanta, 102-86, as 10-point road 'dogs Sunday dealing a blow to the Hawks' chances of getting the No. 3 seed in the East. Now the Hawks have a golden revenge opportunity with the humiliation of losing to the lowly Raptors fresh in their minds. Toronto has multiple injuries. The Raptors are minus three of their top four scorers, including assists leader Jose Calderon. The Raptors also shocked the Celtics this past Friday winning straight-up as a 7 1/2-point 'dogs. I don't see any way the Raptors beating the Celtics and Hawks twice during a four-day span, especially with their depleted roster. The Hawks had more assists and fewer turnovers than the Raptors on Sunday. But were out-shot 55 percent to 40 percent from the field. Atlanta missed 17 of 22 shots from beyond the arc. This was a fluke occurrence. The Hawks rank fifth in defense giving up 93 points per game, while Toronto is 27th offensively averaging 91 points per contest. The Hawks have the stars with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, the motivation and bench to take advantage of a crippled Raptors squad that has played above their heads two straight times. It's rare in the NBA for even good teams to put together three straight "A" game efforts. I certainly can't see the Raptors pulling it off. |
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04-16-12 | Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 100-113 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
Orlando clinched a playoff spot beating Cleveland, 100-84, on Sunday. Even though the lowly Cavaliers were the opponent, the Magic still were relieved to win because of their many key injuries.
Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu may not play again during the regular season. And now the Magic have a cluster injury problem in the pivot as Glen Davis, Howard's replacement, went down with a right knee injury just seven minutes into the game against the Cavaliers. While the Magic are playing for the third time in four days, the 76ers have been idle since Friday. This not only is a revenge game for the 76ers, which fell to the Magic at home eight days ago, but also a key matchup regarding their now iffy playoff status. The 76ers host Indiana on Tuesday and then close with five straight road contests. They have to take advantage of this favorable situational spot. I think the 76ers will as they are healthy now and have the quality reserves to take advantage of Orlando's thin lineup. The Magic have only covered once the last nine times they've played a foe with a winning record. |
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04-15-12 | Miami Heat -3 v. New York Knicks | Top | 93-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The Knicks have been playing well at home under Mike Woodson. It now looks like the Knicks are indeed a playoff team. In fact, if the season ended today the Knicks would open against Miami.
That's one of many factors why the Heat are the right side in this matchup. The Heat haven't been playing well on the road. They want to put a halt to that. The opportunity couldn't come in a better matchup - against a possible first-round foe, on national television and at Madison Square Garden. The motivation for the superior team will be there. It's the Heat's first visit this season to MSG and you know LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, who is expected to play, will be itching to put on a great show in the Big Apple. The Heat still are a much better team than the Knicks no matter where the game is played. Miami is 2-0 versus New York beating the Knicks both times in Miami winning by an average of 12 points. The Knicks are down Amare Stoudemire and Jeremy Lin. It also looks like that guard Ian Shumpert may be out, too, with a sprained ankle. If he goes, he won't be 100 percent. Shumpert is the Knicks' first choice to defend James. |
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04-13-12 | Cleveland Cavaliers +12 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 83-102 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
The Pacers have established a little breathing room in their quest to gain the all-important No. 3 playoff seed in the East owning a two-game lead.
The Pacers escaped the Cavaliers' upset bid this past Wednesday and face easy opponents in their next three games. So this matchup sets up as a letdown spot for Indiana. Certainly the back-door should be open for Cleveland as the Pacers have games on Saturday, Monday and Tuesday. The Pacers do not have a good track record in this situation failing to cover eight of the last 10 times when facing a sub .500 foe. They are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times when laying points. The second part of this equation is can the Cavaliers hold up their part? Star rookie Kyrie Irving remains out with a sprained shoulder. But the Cavaliers have been getting spirited play from youngsters Lester Hudson, Alonzo Gee and Tristain Thompson in covering their last five games. The Cavaliers have either won or lost in overtime during their past four games. Hudson is becoming a remarkable story as the D-League castoff is riding a hot hand averaging 23.3 points in the last four games. Cleveland led Indiana by seven with six minutes left in its overtime loss this past Wednesday at home. The Cavaliers were outshot from the floor and shot 13 fewer free throws in that loss to Indiana. Yet they still took it to overtime. Irving didn't play in that game either. The Cavaliers have a good history, too, in Indiana during their post LeBron James era going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six visits. |
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04-08-12 | Chicago Bulls -2.5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Chicago has the best road mark in the NBA and expects to get back Derrick Rose for this matchup. He's missed the last 12 games with a groin injury.
I still like the Bulls strong even if Rose doesn't play. Chicago is 15-7 when Rose hasn't played. The Bulls had won 12 of their last 14 road games by an average of more than 13 points until losing in their last away matchup. That was to powerful Oklahoma City. Chicago has covered 19 of its last 26 road matchups. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times they've been road chalk. The Knicks get a ton of publicity, but they are just one game above .500. They are a borderline playoff team, while the Bulls rank with the Heat, Thunder and Spurs as one of the four best teams in the league. You could make a case the Bulls are the best when Rose is healthy. The Knicks are minus star Amare Stoudemire and Jeremy Lin, their best point guard. The Knicks would have a hard time keeping close to the Bulls even if they had a full deck. |
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04-07-12 | Dallas Mavericks +3.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
I like Memphis much more as a 'dog rather than a favorite. I feel the same way about Dallas.
Now we have a matchup where the Grizzlies are favored against Dallas. The Mavericks have covered 73 percent during the past 27 times they've been an underdog. The Grizzlies have failed to cover seven of the past eight times they've been chalk. Memphis just ended Miami's 17-game home win streak on Friday night in what could be its most satisfying win of the season. The Grizzlies now have to turn around fly home and play 24 hours later. Memphis is 2-6 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Grizzlies are facing fatigue issues, too. This is their fourth game in five days and sixth game in nine days. They might be without starting guard and key defender Tony Allen a second straight night. He missed the win against the Heat due to facial lacerations suffered this past Wednesday. Dallas can't afford not to be ready and focused for this game. The Mavericks lost at home to Portland on Friday night, dropping a game behind second-place Memphis in the Southwest Division. The Mavericks beat the Grizzlies at home, 95-85, this past Wednesday. |
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04-03-12 | Golden State Warriors +8 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
Golden State is under the radar when it comes to be a money-making road team. The Warriors have covered seven of their last eight away games and are in a good spot to get the money again.
Memphis is playing for the fourth time in five days. The Grizzlies are returning home following a huge upset road win against Oklahoma City on Monday night. The Grizzlies are in a letdown spot now. This is their least important game of the week as they go right back on the road following this matchup taking on the Mavericks in Dallas Wednesday and then play at Miami on Friday. It's tough to be on the road for three straight games and then return home for less than 24 hours to play another game before taking off again. It's difficult both from a physical and mental standpoint. That's what the Grizzlies face, though. Making matters harder for the Grizzlies is they have injuries. Starting point guard Mike Conley (ankle) and reserve Dante Cunningham (ankle) have missed the last two games. Zach Randolph is back, but has averaged a mediocre 12.7 points since returning from a torn right MCL. The Warriors have improved their defense on the road and cut down on their turnovers. They have held five of their last seven road foes to 93 points or less during regulation. Golden State isn't going to the playoffs. But the Warriors won't lack for motivation in a triple revenge spot. Two of the Warriors' losses to Memphis this season have been by one point, including a game at home when they blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead. The Warriors will be gunning hard in this matchup, while it's hard to believe the Grizzlies will produce an "A" type game in this letdown spot. The Grizzlies aren't nearly strong enough to cover this large of a number unless coming up with a strong performance. |
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03-31-12 | Ohio State v. Kansas OVER 136.5 | Top | 62-64 | Loss | -108 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
Coming from the Big Ten, the perception is Ohio State doesn't play that fast. But away from Big Ten foes, the Buckeyes have shown they will play up-temp. It's a style they like and the results have proven it.
The Buckeyes put up 81 points on Cincinnati and 77 on Syracuse, two solid defensive clubs. Both of those games sailed over the total. This isn't a case of going to the well too often as the Buckeyes have gone over in 10 of their last 11 games. They are playing their best basketball right now showing they relish getting out in transition and taking the quick shot if the good shot is there. Deshaun Thomas is playing at a high level and Jared Sullinger is one of the best players in the country. These guys are going to get their points. Thomas and Sullinger have been killing opponents with second shots. This leads to putbacks and free throws which, of course, helps the total . It takes two, though, to ensure an over and I see Kansas doing its part. The Jayhawks have the talent and flexibility to adapt to their opponent's style. Against Purdue and North Carolina State, Kansas played a grinding style. Those two games went under. But against North Carolina, Kansas played more wide-open and the result was an 80-67 win and the combined 147 points going over the total. The Jayhawks prefer this wide-open style. So does Ohio State. If both teams go this way - and I believe they will - each should have no problem reaching 70 points apiece, which puts this safely over the total. The Jayhawks were a top-40 scoring team averaging better than 74 points per game. |
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03-29-12 | Dallas Mavericks +8 v. Miami Heat | Top | 85-106 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Miami win the championship this season. But right now the Heat don't deserve to be laying this big of a number to the defending world champions.
Dallas is 6-2 in its last eight games. The Mavericks have been up and down. Right now they are up and highly motivated. Yes, the Mavericks beat the Heat in the championship series last season. But Miami embarrassed the Mavericks in their previous meeting this season beating Dallas, 105-94, on Christmas Day. It was championship banner day for the Mavericks and the Heat buried them building up a 35-point lead. The prideful Mavericks haven't forgotten. They will be sky-high for this nationally televised matchup. A key for Dallas is the shooting of Dirk Nowitzki and right now he's hot averaging 25.6 points per game during his last nine games. Historically, the Mavericks have been strong in this type of situation. They are 37-16-1 ATS versus foes with a winning home mark. Dallas is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 visits to Miami. Every team experiences low points during the season. The Heat are going through theirs right now, losing by double-digits in their last two games falling to Oklahoma City and Indiana on the road. The Heat are suffering from fatigue, boredom and a painful injury to LeBron James, who is playing with a dislocated ring finger on his non-shooting hand. Miami has been held under 100 points in 11 of its last 13 games. The Heat are averaging just 89.8 points during their last six games. Since March 2, the Heat rank 25th in scoring. Maybe the Heat turns things around in this matchup. But I'll take this many points with a quality, veteran, motivated underdog to find that out. Miami would just be happy to escape with a victory considering the way it has been playing. |
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03-28-12 | Chicago Bulls -4 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 98-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
Chicago isn't likely to have Derrick Rose again. But the Bulls are still 12-5 without Rose and in a favorable situation.
The Bulls are highly motivated following their most embarrassing loss of the season, a 108-91 defeat at home this past Monday to Denver. If the Bulls play their normal strong defensive game, Atlanta is going to be in deep trouble. Chicago ranks second in the NBA in fewest points allowed at 89.1 per contest. Chicago has covered 18 of its 26 road games. The Bulls are playing for just the third time in seven days. Atlanta is in a much different situation. The Hawks are playing for the fifth time in six days. The Hawks had to go four overtimes to beat Utah this past Sunday and then lost on Tuesday night to the Bucks in Milwaukee. |
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03-27-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 v. Portland Trailblazers | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
If this were last year, or even earlier in the season, I probably would stay away from this game since I have great respect for Oklahoma City and for Portland - when the Trail Blazers are playing in the Rose Garden.
But things are different now in Portland. The Trail Blazers have blown up their season sacking Nate McMillan and dealing their two best defenders, Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby. The Trail Blazers are in rebuilding mode and deficient at two key positions, point guard and center. Oklahoma City is the top team in the Western Conference right. The Thunder rank with the Heat, a team they just beat by 16 points this past Sunday, and the Bulls as the best in basketball. Oklahoma City is playing at one of its highest levels averaging 122 points during the past three games, all victories. The Thunder are shooting 53.2 percent from the floor, averaging more than 10 steals per game and more than six blocks per game during this span. The Thunder shouldn't lack for motivation. It has been two days since they knocked off the Heat and they are playing for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Portland isn't a good team anymore. The Trail Blazers are 14 games worse than the Thunder. They are 6-18 ATS the past 24 times they've been an underdog. The Thunder, on the other hand, are 11-5 ATS versus opponents with a losing record. |
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03-26-12 | Utah Jazz v. New Jersey Nets -1 | 105-84 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
Normally you won't find me laying points with New Jersey. But this is an exceptional situation.
The Nets are terrible at home. But Utah is no bargain on the road losing 17 of 24 away matchups. New Jersey catches the Jazz after Utah just played the third-longest game in league history yesterday losing in quadruple-overtime to Atlanta on the road. Utah had five of its players log more than 49 minutes against the Hawks. There is no rest for the weary, however. The Jazz now have to play for the fourth time in five days. Utah is 2-7 ATS on the road when facing an opponent with a losing home record. The Jazz also have failed to cover in six of their past eight visits to New Jersey. The Nets aren't going anywhere except to the lottery following the season, but they do have a revenge motive. The Jazz beat them 107-94 in mid-January. Deron Williams, a former Jazz player, had a terrible game missing 12 of 15 shots from the floor and committing five turnovers. Expect the prideful Williams, an elite point guard, and his teammates to be motivated and take advantage of an obviously worn down Jazz team. |
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03-26-12 | Miami Heat -3 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 90-105 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
Indiana hasn't been a good home team against the spread failing to cover 11 of the past 16 times at home. Now the Pacers catch an angry Heat team coming off a 103-87 loss on national television to Oklahoma City.
Miami ranks with the Thunder and Bulls among the upper elite. Indiana is at least two rungs below the Heat. The Pacers have played the Heat three times this season and lost all three times with only one of the matchups being close. Miami won the other two games by 15 points at Indiana and by 35 at home. Prior to losing to Oklahoma City, the Heat had allowed an average of only 81.7 points in their last four games. Miami is in a back-to-back situation, but Indiana is playing for the fourth time in five days. The Heat have covered in 11 of their last 15 Eastern Conference matchups and is 7-3 ATS the past 10 times when facing the Pacers. |
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03-25-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. San Antonio Spurs -3.5 | 76-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
The line is short here for two big reasons - the Spurs are playing their third game in three days and there is a strong possibility they could rest Tim Duncan.
Still, I like the Spurs to cover this short number. Despite Gregg Popovich occasionally sitting out one of his star players, the Spurs still are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games. They got past New Orleans on the road last night despite resting Manu Ginobili. San Antonio is 10-0-1 ATS following a non-spread performance. Philadelphia isn't playing nearly as well as it did early in the season, especially on the road where it is 3-8 ATS. They have failed to break triple digits in five of their last six games. The 76ers have lost in their last seven visits to San Antonio. They are 2-7 ATS in their past nine games versus Western Conference foes. Philadelphia has crushed weaker competition, but has failed repeatedly to step up versus elite teams. Since Feb. 29, the 76ers have played the Thunder, Bulls twice and the Heat. They lost to the Thunder by four at home. They lost to the Bulls by five at home. They lost to the Heat by six at home and they lost on the road to the Bulls by nine despite Chicago missing Derrick Rose. |
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03-23-12 | Indiana v. Kentucky UNDER 144.5 | Top | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
Sick of seeing Christian Watford sink that 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat Kentucky back in December?
So is Kentucky. The Wildcats are sure to be motivated defensively. Indiana is tough defensively, too, coming from the rugged Big Ten. Indiana nipped Kentucky, 73-72, in Bloomington. That's a combined 145 points. The Wildcats and Hooisers reached that number by combining to shoot better than 49 percent from the floor and making 11 of 22 3-point shots. The pace wasn't fast in that game. I don't expect it to be fast in this matchup either. And I certainly don't expect that kind of accurate long-range shooting. This game is in the Georgia Dome, which is not a good shooting venue. The Hoosiers know they aren't going to be able to keep up with Kentucky. So they are going to slow things down. Anthony Davis led the nation in blocked shots averaging 4.6 per game. He was limited to 24 minutes in the first meeting due to foul trouble. Thanks in large part to Davis, the Wildcats led the nation in blocked shots and defensive field goal percentage. Indiana has a big man presence, too, to clog the middle in Cody Zeller. The Hooisers have forced 112 more turnovers than they've given up assists this season. That pattern has held up in the NCAA Tournament so far where the Hooisers have forced 28 turnovers while yielding 15 assists. These numbers have helped the Hooisers go under in seven of their past nine games. Kentucky has a number of factors in support of an under, too, including dipping below the number eight of the past 10 times when going against a Big Ten opponent and the under cashing eight of the last nine times when the Wildcats have squared off against a foe with a winning mark. |
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03-22-12 | Cincinnati v. Ohio State OVER 129 | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
Unlike many Big Ten teams, Ohio State would prefer to play up-tempo. The Buckeyes are capable of scoring a lot of points, especially when not held back by grind-out, physical Big Ten opponents.
Cincinnati is the same way, but also has been held back having to face certain Big East schools such as South Florida. The Bearcats' 68.2 point scoring average is misleading because they had to face South Florida, Louisville and Seton Hall. They averaged just 53 points against those three foes. Ohio State averages 75 points per game. So if the Buckeyes and Bearcats just maintain their averages, this total goes over by around 14 points. The Buckeyes have gone over in eight of their last nine games. This matchup does figure to be physical so expect a lot of free throws. Ohio State shoots a respectable 70.3 percent from the foul line. Cincinnati is not a good free throw shooting team. However, the Bearcats made 19 of 23 from the free throw line in their last game against Florida State. |