10-09-16 |
Bengals v. Cowboys |
|
14-28 |
Loss |
-115 |
77 h 26 m |
Show
|
The Bengals are at least a whole another tier higher than Dallas. The Cowboys are thrilled when they beat the lowly 49ers. The Bengals - who have made the playoffs five straight years - expect to the beat the 49ers. That's a huge difference between these two. The Cowboys lack the experience at the skill position the Bengals have. They also don't have Cincinnati's veteran savvy. The Bengals have covered in nine of their last 10 road contests, while Dallas has lost straight-up eight of its last nine home games. The Cowboys gave up 300-yard passing games to Brian Hoyer and Kirk Cousins. They allowed Eli Manning to throw for three touchdowns. Dallas doesn't have the pass rush nor the secondary to defend against A.J. Green. The Cowboys aren't going to get passes air-mailed to them like they did this past Sunday with Blaine Gabbert.
|
10-09-16 |
Chargers +4 v. Raiders |
Top |
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
140 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points. The Chargers have led by double-digits at halftime in three of their games. They have blown three fourth-quarter leads. They are a frustrated bunch who are averaging more than 30 points a game and have a decent secondary. Philip Rivers has a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is on pace to throw for 4,440 yards. He's having another splendid season. Melvin Gordon has rushed for six touchdowns. The Chargers will get their points against a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom-three in total yards, rush yards and pass yards. The Raiders are returning from their third long trip in four weeks. They aren't as desperate as the Chargers, who also have double-revenge motivation.
|
10-09-16 |
Texans +6.5 v. Vikings |
|
13-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is going to be a defensive, grind-it-out type of game as reflected in the total, which is the second-lowest on the Week 5 menu. So taking a lot of points makes sense especially given the matchup and spot. The Texans get a big boost to their offense with left tackle Duane Brown slated to make his season debut. I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler, but steady Lamar Miller and Brown back will take the pressure off the Houston quarterback. Miller is a "B" type running back who forces the Vikings to respect the run. Minnesota has an outstanding defense, but so does Houston. The Texans give up the fewest passing yards per game. They've allowed only one touchdown throw all season, none in their past three games. Only four teams yield fewer yards per game than the Texans, who surrender barely 18 points per game. The Vikings employ backup running backs and aren't likely to have their top wide receiver and spark plug, Stefon Diggs. That leaves Sam Bradford, who is still learning the offense, without a reliable target. This spot isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings showcased their new stadium three weeks ago against Green Bay on Sunday night, knocked off defending NFC champion Carolina on the road two weeks ago in a prove-it-to-me matchup and defeated the Giants at home this past Monday night. The Vikings have a bye after this game.This matchup for the Vikings is against a non-marquee, non-division opponent, a letdown for them after their previous three challenges and high profile games.
|
10-08-16 |
Air Force v. Wyoming +12 |
|
26-35 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 3 m |
Show
|
I like the spot, matchup and Wyoming's pedigree against Air Force. The Cowboys have covered the past seven times versus Air Force. Third-year Wyoming coach Craig Bohl knows how to defend Air Force's option. The Falcons have averaged 22 points during their past two games against Bohl's Cowboys. Wyoming has a lot of senior leadership. The Cowboys have 17 starters back from last season. One of those is Brian Hill, who ranks sixth in the nation in rushing. The Cowboys are a power team so they are familiar with Air Force's grind it out style. This is Bohl's best Wyoming team. The Cowboys have won their last four home games and draw Air Force in a flat spot. The Falcons just beat Navy at home in a revenge spot and have another revenge spot next week against New Mexico, who they lost to last year as an 11-point favorite.
|
10-08-16 |
BYU v. Michigan State -5.5 |
Top |
31-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 44 m |
Show
|
Life as an independent isn't easy these days. BYU is experiencing that. The Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and now play in the Eastern Time Zone for the second time in two weeks. The timing and opponent are especially bad for BYU. Michigan State not only is in circle-the-wagons mode - 0-2 in the Big Ten for the first time since 2007 following consecutive losses to Wisconsin and Indiana - but causes a matchup nightmare problem for the Cougars. The Spartans always have a strong run defense under Mark Dantonio. That's the case again this season as the Spartans rank 15th versus the run. BYU just surrendered 53 points at home to Toledo of the Mid-American Conference. The Cougars, inconsistent all season, rank 97th in total defense. They rely on their running spearheaded by Jamaal Williams. The Spartans are going to key on him and quarterback Taysom Hill isn't a strong enough passer to carry the Cougars in this extremely tough road setting. Hill needs to be set up by Williams not the only way around. Not only have the Cougars been traveling the country, but they've yet to have a bye. They get the chance to host a rare SEC foe next Friday when Mississippi State visits Provo in a game that will be televised by ESPN. That's the game the Cougars will be pointing to. It's Michigan State, the defending Big Ten champion, that has the urgency this week. The Spartans have the talent, desire and right scheduling setup to beat the Cougars by double-digits.
|
10-03-16 |
Giants v. Vikings -4 |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
174 h 56 m |
Show
|
Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better. So I'm locking into this point spread now as I envision it to go higher during the week when more people start playing attention. The Vikings are a physical, disciplined team with excellent coaching and a defense that is becoming more dominant week to week, which isn't surprising given the tremendous talent at each position. The Vikings have held the Titans to 16 points, the Packers to 14 points and Panthers to 10 points. Since Mike Zimmer came on board - and hiring a top level staff to assist him - the Vikings have covered an amazing 75 percent of their games going 27-9 ATS! Minnesota is better off with the more accurate and downfield attacker Sam Bradford at quarterback than it was when Teddy Bridgewater was under center. Adrian Peterson's injury is overrated. He was averaging 1.6 yards per carry. The Vikings are fine with Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata replacing Peterson. They did the job two years ago when Peterson missed the season and are better receiving targets out of the backfield than Peterson. The Giants have upgraded their defense, but it doesn't compare to Minnesota's. The Giants remain turnover and penalty-prone. Ben McAdoo can't compare to Zimmer as a head coach. The Giants just lost Shane Vereen for the season further weakening an already well below average ground attack.
|
10-02-16 |
Broncos -3 v. Bucs |
|
27-7 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 48 m |
Show
|
Let's not overthink this game. Tampa Bay is 3-15 SU, 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Buccaneers don't know how to beat a good opponent such as the Broncos and this isn't a good fundamental matchup either for them. Yet the oddsmaker has made a short line because the Broncos are playing their second consecutive road game and Tampa Bay is off a bad loss. So what. Not only do the Broncos have a vastly superior defensive edge, but their coaching, experience and savvy are major advantages, too. Jameis Winston has great potential being in his second season. But he still forces things versus aggressive defenses. The Buccaneers have a minus 6 turnover ratio and are facing the top defense in the NFL. Denver has not allowed more than 20 points during any of its last eight games. The Broncos are giving up an average of 17.2 points per game during this span - and they've played better offenses than the Buccaneers in this time frame: Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Panthers twice, Bengals twice and Colts. The Broncos' pass defense is first-rate. The Broncos can be attacked on the ground, but the Buccaneers are missing their best running back, Doug Martin. Trevor Siemian is coming off his finest game as a pro. That was last week on the road against the Bengals, who have a much better defense than the Buccaneers.
|
10-02-16 |
Panthers -3 v. Falcons |
Top |
33-48 |
Loss |
-120 |
122 h 31 m |
Show
|
Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. The Panthers actually could be better offensively than a year ago with Kelvin Benjamin in the lineup. Carolina is stepping way down in class defensively taking on the Falcons. The Panthers are at their best when they can bully and dominate the lines of scrimmage. They couldn't do that versus the Broncos and Vikings. They can against the finesse Falcons. Carolina whipped the Falcons, 38-0, at home last season. But the Panthers won't forget losing 20-13 at Atlanta last season for their lone regular season defeat. This is a revenge spot for the Panthers and they catch the Falcons on a short week. Even with the Falcons beating the defenseless Saints this past Monday, Atlanta still has covered just four of its last 15 games. Second-year head Falcons coach Dan Quinn hasn't been able to fix a leaky defense, nor upgrade a weak pass rush. Matt Ryan is having a big season so far and does play better in a dome setting, which this is. But the Falcons' two top wider receivers are both less than 100 percent.
|
10-01-16 |
Buffalo +19 v. Boston College |
|
3-35 |
Loss |
-107 |
15 h 23 m |
Show
|
Boston College has Clemson on deck so a full, all-out effort can't be a natural given. Chances are the Eagles could let up if building a safe lead. Buffalo has gotten better since turning to redshirt freshman quarterback Tyree Jackson, who has yet to be sacked. The Bulls rank No. 2 in pass defense. Boston College will attack via the ground, which is a plus for a big underdog.
|
10-01-16 |
Notre Dame -10.5 v. Syracuse |
|
50-33 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 12 m |
Show
|
Now that Notre Dame has hit rock bottom expect a strong performance here against a weak defense. Brian Kelly has cleaned house and put everyone on notice. It's one thing to lose to Texas and Michigan State. But a loss to Duke last week as a three-touchdown favorite has caused this stir. Notre Dame's problem isn't offense. DeShone Kizer is moving the ball and he's behind a very talented offensive line. Kizer should have a big game operating against Syracuse's vulnerable secondary. The Orangemen have allowed 131 points in their last three games against Louisville, South Florida and Connecticut, a weak offensive team. The Irish have too many athletes to stay this down on defense. There's a huge class difference here and the Irish won't lack motivation. Being on the road for the first time in four weeks actually is a good thing for the Irish because it forces them to focus and get away from all the criticism on the home front.
|
09-29-16 |
Dolphins v. Bengals -7 |
Top |
7-22 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 22 m |
Show
|
There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. Miami was life and death with the Browns at home this past Sunday. It took three missed field goals by the Browns, including one at the end of regulation, that allowed the Dolphins to escape with an overtime victory. Cincinnati is one of the best all around teams in the NFL. The Bengals protect their home-field well, too, only losing five times during their last 25 games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals are off a disappointing home loss, though, to the Broncos. So there is little chance that they'll take the Dolphins for granted, or look past them. Even with that loss to Denver, Cincinnati still is 13-5-2 ATS in its past 20 games. The Bengals' defense has been solid, rather than outstanding. But look for the Bengals' defensive level to be raised a notch with the return from suspension of star linebacker and defensive leader Vontaze Burfict. The Dolphins are weak defensively in their back seven and could be without all three of their starting linebackers. Miami is vulnerable to A.J. Green and in big trouble offensively with their top runner, Arian Foster, out again and a cluster injury problem in the offensive line. Miami very well could be starting third-string center Kraig Urbik. Starting center Mike Pouncey is out at least another week with a hip injury and backup Anthony Steen suffered a high ankle sprain against the Browns. Also out for the Dolphins is starting tight end Jordan Cameron with a concussion. The combination of the Bengals' talent edge, home field advantage that is magnified by a short week and the many Miami injuries make the Bengals a solid play as they should win by double-digits.
|
09-25-16 |
Bears +6.5 v. Cowboys |
|
17-31 |
Loss |
-102 |
22 h 59 m |
Show
|
I believe the Bears will respond better with Brian Hoyer under center than Jay Cutler, who isn't a popular teammate. The Bears have more talent than their 0-2 record indicates. The Bears did suffer multiple injuries on defense in their Monday night upset loss to the Eagles, but Dallas also is thin defensively due to injuries and multiple suspensions. The Cowboys' offense is limited by rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, who hasn't proven he can scare defenses when throwing downfield. Dallas is 2-14 the past 16 times Tony Romo hasn't played. The Bears should play extremely hard with their season already in deep peril at 0-2 and off an embarrassing Monday night home loss. The Cowboys have a terrible track record as a home favorite failing to cover 12 of the past 14 times in that role going back to the middle of 2013.
|
09-25-16 |
Steelers -3.5 v. Eagles |
|
3-34 |
Loss |
-100 |
46 h 49 m |
Show
|
The Eagles have looked surprisingly good so far. But look at whom they have beaten - the winless Browns and winless Bears. Now the Eagles are stepping way up facing one of the top seven teams in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger leads the NFL in touchdown passes. He can - and should - easily exploit a short-handed Eagles secondary that is minus cornerback Leodis McKelvin. The Eagles have looked better than they are defensively by facing Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler/Brian Hoyer. Roethlisberger gets back his No. 2 wideout, Markus Wheaton, to go with Antonio Brown. The Steelers have two solid other wide receivers. Carson Wentz will be going against the best defense he's seen so far. He won't have tight end Zach Ertz either. The Eagles need to set up Wentz by churning out rushing yards. Wentz has never played from behind before. The chances are strong that happens here. The Eagles don't have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers' high-powered attack. The Steelers have been solid as chalk covering 10 the last 13 times when favored.
|
09-25-16 |
Browns v. Dolphins -10 |
|
24-30 |
Loss |
-100 |
139 h 26 m |
Show
|
The Dolphins are 0-2 and playing their first home game. They are in a kill spot. Except for a bad first half against New England, the Dolphins' defense has looked solid especially their front. The Browns are forced to go with third-string rookie quarterback Cody Kessler because of injuries to Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown. Kessler isn't nearly ready. He looked bad during preseason - overmatched - and he's not helped by the Browns' offensive line being much inferior to the Dolphins' defensive front. The Browns also may be without their best defensive back, Joe Haden. Miami's offense should pick up having gotten more in tune with offensive guru Adam Gase's system. The Dolphins step way down in class having opened on the road against Seattle and New England. Those two teams can make any team look bad. The Browns also aren't used to playing in South Florida kind of heat. Look for their depth-shy team to wear down in the second half.
|
09-25-16 |
Redskins +4.5 v. Giants |
Top |
29-27 |
Win
|
100 |
109 h 50 m |
Show
|
I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money eight of the last 11 times. The Giants are 2-0 having eked out last-minute victories against the Cowboys and Saints by a combined four points. New York's defense is much improved from a year ago courtesy of a $200 million spending spree. But it's far from dominant and the Giants offense has yet to impress averaging 18 points a game. The Giants have a below average ground attack. Kirk Cousins isn't Pro Bowl caliber. But he's also better than what he has shown so far this season. He has excellent receiving weapons - especially with a matchup of Jordan Reed against the Giants mediocre linebackers - and has received excellent pass protection. The Giants have a below average pass rush. The Redskins have moved the ball they've just had trouble putting up touchdowns in the red zone. That should change with better play-calling, including not overusing fade routes that don't work. Josh Norman shores up the Redskins' secondary and the coaching staff finally has figured out to move Norman around. That means he's likely to be shadowing Odell Beckham Jr. Norman got inside Beckham's head last season. He's probably the cornerback that Beckham least likes to face.
|
09-24-16 |
Oklahoma State +8 v. Baylor |
Top |
24-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
70 h 32 m |
Show
|
I haven't been impressed with Baylor, which has played weak competition and didn't cover any of its three games. Facing Northwestern State, SMU and Rice is not a good non-conference buildup to stepping up against Oklahoma State. It's not stepping out to say the Bears played the weakest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team. Baylor's great defensive stats are skewed by this easy schedule. Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph and and wide receiver James Washington can hurt any defense. An added plus for the Cowboys would be if safety Orion Stewart can't play after injuring his ribs against Rice last week and if cornerback Ryan Reid has to miss a second straight week after sustaining a high ankle sprain versus SMU. I believe Baylor quarterback Seth Russell is a real downgrade from recent Baylor quarterbacks. The Bears have had to endure a lot of uncertainty and a coaching change due to recent scandals. It has hurt their recruiting. This is their first big test in the post Art Briles era and I can't see the Bears winning by more than a touchdown against this high quality opponent that has a real chip on its shoulder from getting ripped off against Central Michigan two weeks ago on an extra play that shouldn't have been allowed.
|
09-24-16 |
New Mexico State v. Troy -19.5 |
|
6-52 |
Win
|
100 |
127 h 19 m |
Show
|
Take good early value by playing this line now as I see it climbing past three touchdowns. New Mexico State can't keep up with Troy. The Aggies got buried by a score of 52-7 last year by the Trojans - and that was in Las Cruces.
This is the Aggies' third road game in four weeks and second in two weeks after playing at SEC foe Kentucky this past Saturday. They don't have the defense and depth to hang here.
|
09-24-16 |
Duke v. Notre Dame -20 |
|
38-35 |
Loss |
-115 |
22 h 17 m |
Show
|
People are focusing on Notre Dame having already lost twice. But Duke is way down this season with a terrible loss to Wake Forest and then Northwestern. The Blue Devils aren't 100 percent healthy on defense and lack the playmakers to keep up with a frustrated Irish squad in need of a wipeout performance. Now Duke, which is full of underclassmen, has to try to step up against Notre Dame. It's not going to happen. The Blue Devils haven't seen this kind of offensive talent. Notre Dame, on the other hand, gets to drop way down in class having already gone up against Texas and Michigan State. This is a matchup where laying three touchdowns is cheap.
|
09-24-16 |
Pittsburgh +7 v. North Carolina |
|
36-37 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 31 m |
Show
|
Pittsburgh has triple revenge having lost the past three years to North Carolina, never by more than seven points during this span. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS when playing with triple revenge. Another favorable spot for the Panthers is drawing the Tar Heels with a look-ahead road game against Florida State the following week while they finally get a breather hosting down-in-the-dumps Marshall. Matchup-wise, the Panthers' outstanding running attack, led by James Conner, can control the ball and gauge a Tar Heels rush defense that ranks 106th giving up more than 226 yards per game on the ground. North Carolina just surrendered 495 yards, 28 first downs and 28 points to James Madison, an FCS team, last week. Pittsburgh's defense has been disappointing up to this point. But I trust Pat Narduzzi, one of the most respected defensive minds in the country, to fix things.
|
09-23-16 |
USC v. Utah -3 |
Top |
27-31 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 1 m |
Show
|
The wheels are coming off USC under Clay Helton. The Trojans are 1-4 since he was named permanent coach during last season. The Trojans have bad chemistry and face a Utah squad big on revenge after losing to the Trojans, 42-24, last year. The Utes were 6-0 entering that game, ranked seventh in the country. The Trojans have some talented playmakers, but they're wasted in a dysfunctional program. Playing a day earlier than usual and at always-tough Rice-Eccles Stadium are big disadvantages for the Trojans. USC was pounded by Alabama losing by 46 points. The Trojans already have made a quarterback change. I can't see the Trojans having the necessary focus and discipline to win this Pac-12 road game. They are off a bad road loss to Stanford, a very physical opponent, and now will be playing away from home for the third time in four weeks. The Trojans have failed to cover in 15 of their last 21 away matchups. Utah ranks No. 2 in the nation in sacks with 15 and is No. 8 nationally in pass-efficiency defense. The Utes are balanced on offense and strong on special teams. They are in much better shape mentally and physically for this game than USC.
|
09-19-16 |
Eagles v. Bears -3 |
Top |
29-14 |
Loss |
-125 |
154 h 58 m |
Show
|
This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans. Wentz, though, went against maybe the worst defense in the NFL - the Browns. He was home, too. Now he makes his road debut and it's on the Monday night national stage against a much-improved, well-coached Bears defense. Wentz has an aging offensive line and below average wide receivers. He's not likely to have his security blanket either as tight end Zach Ertz has a serious rib injury and is not likely to play. I see Wentz struggling in this spot. Jay Cutler has physical tools, but is not an elite quarterback. We know that. But Cutler will do better this year with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. I rate Jeffery as the eighth-best wide receiver in the NFL. His presence is huge for Cutler's confidence and the Bears offense. The Eagles secondary can't cover him. Cutler is at his best when he's not facing adversity. He won't have to deal with that in this matchup.
|
09-18-16 |
Titans +6 v. Lions |
|
16-15 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 27 m |
Show
|
Tennessee is a much improved team. The oddsmaker is a beat slow in realizing this based on the line. The Titans should have beaten the Vikings in Week 1. They led by 10 at halftime, outgained the Vikings and their defense didn't allow a touchdown. Unfortunately for the Titans they self-destructed. The Lions are noted chokers themselves. They are likely to be missing their star linebacker, DeAndre Levy, and are very weak defending tight ends having surrendered the most touchdowns last year to tight ends. Detroit yielded three tight end touchdowns to the Colts last week. The Titans have one of the best tight ends in Delaine Walker, who led all tight ends in receptions last year. Detroit has a huge lookahead game, too, facing the Packers in Wisconsin next Sunday. The Lions lack the maturity and overall talent to cover a margin in this spread range against an under-the-radar improved foe that has a pair of good runners, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. A strong ground attack is pivotal for an underdog on the road.
|
09-18-16 |
49ers v. Panthers -13 |
Top |
27-46 |
Win
|
100 |
110 h 21 m |
Show
|
I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher. The Panthers hold edges in all areas against the 49ers. Not just minor edges either. The Panthers have all-pros at many positions. The 49ers have below average starters at many positions. The 49ers' problems are made more difficult by the scheduling dynamics. The Panthers have had nearly 1 1/2 weeks to sit around stewing about blowing a lead to the Broncos in the opening Thursday night game. Cam Newton is going to have a much easier time against the 49ers defense. The 49ers are fat and happy after whipping the Rams at home this past Monday night. Now they have to make a cross-country journey on a short week. Carolina is 19-7-1 in its last 27 home games.
|
09-17-16 |
Michigan State +8 v. Notre Dame |
|
36-28 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 22 m |
Show
|
I like Mark Dantonio in this underdog role. The spot is good, too, for the Spartans. Notre Dame lost a lot of defensive talent either through used-up eligibility or suspensions. Michigan State is the healthier team and has had two weeks to game plan and get senior quarterback Tyler O'Connor ready after being idle last week. O'Connor should be ready for his moment having spent the past three years backing up Connor Cook. Michigan State is 9-3 the past 12 times it has taken on a ranked opponent. The Spartans are 6-2-1 ATS as a road 'dog winning five of those games straight-up.
|
09-17-16 |
New Mexico State v. Kentucky -20 |
|
42-62 |
Push |
0 |
51 h 49 m |
Show
|
New Mexico State is a bottom-three Sun Belt team. Kentucky is an SEC school with far better athletes. New Mexico State has never beaten an SEC team in 19 tries. Not only is there a huge talent gap - three touchdown's worth - but the spot is right for a Kentucky blowout. New Mexico State is coming off a huge 32-31 upset win over arch-rival New Mexico last week as 9 1/2-point 'dogs. That win was emotional and physically draining for the Aggies. New Mexico State is 0-4 SU and ATS the past four years the week after playing the Lobos losing to the spread by an average of more than 10 points. That's a direct reflection on the seniors. The Aggies also have a far bigger game on deck when they open Sun Belt play against Troy. Kentucky is in desperate need of a victory, the more lopsided the better. This is a kill spot for the Wildcats and I expect them to take full advantage.
|
09-11-16 |
Lions +3.5 v. Colts |
|
39-35 |
Win
|
100 |
65 h 9 m |
Show
|
I'm not sure if the Colts would win this game if they were healthy - which they are not. Indy, in fact, is heavily banged-up. Out are the Colts' best defensive back, Vontae Davis, best defensive lineman, Henry Anderson, and one of their few decent offensive linemen left guard Jake Mewhort. The oddsmaker has devalued Detroit too much because of the retirement of Calvin Johnson. Matthew Stafford was one of the hottest quarterbacks during the second half of the season last year with the second-highest passer rating during the last eight games and a 19-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that span. If not for an Aaron Rodgers' Hail Mary touchdown pass the Lions would have gone 7-1 in their last eight games. Johnson, of course, will be missed but the Lions still have three excellent wide receivers in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and a still effective Anquan Boldin. The Colts have two new cornerbacks, over-the-hill veteran Antonio Cromartie and rookie T.J. Green. The Colts aren't going to be able to stop the Lions' passing game while the Colts may not be able to keep up with their beat up offensive line.
|
09-11-16 |
Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs |
|
27-33 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 29 m |
Show
|
The Chargers will be seeing blood here in a double revenge spot. This year the Chargers are healthy in the offensive line, improved defensively and have Ken Whisenhunt back as their offensive coordinator, a huge plus for Philip Rivers. Keenan Allen is back, too, for the Chargers. Expect much better from Melvin Gordon. The Chiefs aren't going to be able to control Rivers especially with their top front seven defender, Justin Houston, out. The Chiefs lose a huge portion of their pass rush with Houston out. Kansas City also is likely to be without its best running back, Jamaal Charles. His replacements are nothing special. Bottom line is this is too many points for the Chiefs to be laying in a division matchup.
|
09-11-16 |
Vikings -3 v. Titans |
Top |
25-16 |
Win
|
100 |
1078 h 8 m |
Show
|
Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. After losing to a bad 49ers team last year on the road in their opener, the Vikings should be fully prepared this time around. They know they can't take a loss with the Packers and Panthers up next in Weeks 2 and 3. The Vikings rebounded from that defeat to the 49ers to cover their last seven road games. Peterson and an emerging defense are an excellent road formula. The Titans have lost 14 of their 16 home games during the last two seasons. Marcus Mariota is a promising second-year quarterback, but the Titans are in a huge rebuilding stage. They have a lot of youth, new starters and lack receiving weapons for Mariota. Their talent level can't compare to the Vikings.
|
09-11-16 |
Bears +4.5 v. Texans |
Top |
14-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
1078 h 51 m |
Show
|
I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. Both teams are slow-motion, grind-out types where points mean something. So taking more than a field goal is big. Last year, all but five of the Bears' games were decided by five points or less. The Bears are well coached and fundamentally sound. John Fox is 30-12 ATS on the road in his NFL coaching career and knows the Texans and Osweiler from when he coached the Broncos. The Bears covered six of their last seven away games last season. I'm expecting a strong defensive game plan from Fox and his ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with so much time to prepare. I'll take their experience, savvy and tricks against Osweiler and a vanilla Houston offense that had to deal with multiple offensive line injuries during preseason and isn't likely to be in sync here. The Bears offense is ready to take off and become a lot more vertical with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Jay Cutler is far more effective with a healthy Jeffery.
|
09-10-16 |
Washington State +10.5 v. Boise State |
Top |
28-31 |
Win
|
100 |
74 h 36 m |
Show
|
Washington State under Mike Leach has been at its best versus strong competition and as a road 'dog, both of which are in play here. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus above .500 opponents and have covered 12 of the last 15 times as an away underdog. The Cougars have proven their road strength by winning at Oregon, UCLA, USC, Arizona and California during the past three years under Leach. Certainly the Cougars have the offense to hang with Boise State sparked by quarterback Luke Falk and wide receiver Gabe Marks. They can hurt a Boise State defense that does not have a stellar pass rush nor secondary. It's on defense where the oddsmaker doubts Washington State with this line after the Cougars lost, 45-42, to Eastern Washington as heavy favorites during opening week. But Eastern Washington has an underrated offense and the Cougars were without their best defensive player, suspended safety Shalom Luani. He's back from suspension now and will play here, which should greatly shore up the Cougars' secondary.
|
09-10-16 |
Wake Forest v. Duke -4.5 |
|
24-14 |
Loss |
-115 |
42 h 45 m |
Show
|
The spread doesn't reflect the vast difference between these two teams. Not to mention that Duke's David Cutcliffe is one of my favorite coaches as the Blue Devils are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games. Duke might appear down this season, although quarterback Daniel Jones' play against NC Central last week was a cause for optimism, but the Blue Devils are still a touchdown better than lowly Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons gained only 175 yards against Tulane last week in a 7-3 victory. The Demon Deacons can't match Duke's passing game. The Blue Devils should have their confidence up scoring on seven of their first 10 possessions last week. Duke has won and covered each of the past four seasons versus Wake Forest with each victory coming by six or more points.
|
09-10-16 |
Akron +24 v. Wisconsin |
|
10-54 |
Loss |
-110 |
42 h 44 m |
Show
|
Wisconsin is one of the great party schools and I can see the Badgers still celebrating their opening week upset victory against LSU, the Badgers' biggest win over a higher-ranked opponent since 2010 when they knocked off top-ranked Ohio State. Akron became decent last year finishing 8-5, including posting a 23-21 victory against Utah State in a bowl game. The Zips are a dangerous foe for the Badgers and not just because of the timing. Akron spreads the field and has a good quarterback, Thomas Woodson. He was the MAC Player of the Week this past week after throwing a school-record six touchdown passes in a 47-24 win against Virginia Military. Now I fully get that there's a jump as wide as the Grand Canyon going from Virginia Military to playing Wisconsin especially in Madison. But the Badgers are at their best defensively going against power run teams such as LSU where their strength of playing good assignment football shows through. They are more vulnerable if forced to cover the field defending against a spread offense. Wisconsin also has offensive line issues due to injuries and a surprise retirement and its quarterback situation appears weak as usual.
|
09-08-16 |
Panthers -3 v. Broncos |
Top |
20-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
276 h 26 m |
Show
|
I see the Panthers getting their revenge on the Broncos after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. Carolina didn't lose the Super Bowl based on talent. The Panthers out-gained the Broncos by 121 yards and had 10 more first downs than Denver. Certainly the Broncos are worthy of respect despite their less-than-inspiring quarterback situation. But Carolina is the more complete team extremely strong on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton just had his worst game of the season in the Super Bowl. Newton, of course, is the real deal and gives the Panthers a monster quarterback edge. He has his top receiver weapon, Kelvin Benjamin, back now which wasn't the case in the Super Bowl. Denver's defense still is top-notch, but several important players did leave. Carolina lost its great cornerback, Josh Norman. But the Panthers rate far better than the Broncos with a top-three quarterback compared to a bottom-three quarterback. The right team is favored here.
|
09-03-16 |
LSU -9.5 v. Wisconsin |
Top |
14-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
103 h 4 m |
Show
|
First it's important to note this game isn't in Madison. It's in Green Bay at Lambeau Field and LSU expects to have 30,000 fans. The seating capacity is 80,735. So almost half the crowd will be for the Tigers. As far as the matchup, it couldn't come at a worst time for Wisconsin. The Badgers need to shore up their offensive line because of injuries. Their best offensive lineman recently retired due to repeated injuries. They also are unsettled at quarterback. It would have been best for Wisconsin to ease into their schedule. That's certainly not the case here. LSU is an absolute powerhouse with tremendous skill position talent. Leonard Fournette rivals Deshaun Watson as the best player in college football. Highly respected Tigers defensive coordinator Dave Aranda knows the Badgers inside-and-out having been their defensive coordinator the previous three seasons before coming to LSU this season. The Badgers hated to see him go. Wisconsin is going to lose anywhere from three to six games this season. The Badgers aren't in LSU's class and that point is made worse for Wisconsin by this being the opening game.
|
09-03-16 |
South Alabama +28 v. Mississippi State |
|
21-20 |
Win
|
100 |
111 h 52 m |
Show
|
South Alabama is well-coached and came close to qualifying for a bowl for a second consecutive season. One of their victories last season came on the road as 17 1/2-point 'dogs to San Diego State. Meeting an SEC foe is huge for South Alabama. The Jaguars are going to be far more motivated for this matchup than Mississippi State, which has a home game against South Carolina next week and then plays at LSU the following week. Those, of course, are both SEC contests. Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen isn't interested in running up a big score against South Alabama, or tipping his hand to South Carolina and LSU by pulling off any trickery or twists in this matchup.. Mullen is more interested in replacing Dak Prescott. The Bulldogs have a huge question at quarterback. They also have problems in the secondary losing both projected starting cornerbacks. Note, too, that Jaguars defensive coordinator, Kane Wommack, is the son of Mississippi's defensive coordinator. So you know he picked the brain of his father to help defend against Mississippi State.
|
09-03-16 |
Boise State v. UL-Lafayette +20 |
|
45-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 50 m |
Show
|
Louisiana Lafayette is in bounce back mode. Prior to last season, the Ragin Cajuns had won nine games four consecutive seasons. The Ragin Cajuns have LSU transfer Anthony Jennings at quarterback now and a star running back, Elijah McGuire. He's rushed for 3,185 yards with 35 touchdowns during his Lafayette career averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He also is the school's first running back to have 100 receptions. Boise State's defensive line has zero combined starts. But it's not just offense that should keep Lafayette in the ball game, but the situation, too. This is an 11 a.m. Central time start. The Broncos are traveling cross-country and not used to this early start. They haven't played at this early time in four years. There's another situational problem for Boise State. The Broncos aren't used to Louisiana's heat and humidity this time of year. The temperature is expected to reach 90 for this game.
|
09-02-16 |
Colorado State v. Colorado -8.5 |
Top |
7-44 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 8 m |
Show
|
Colorado has its best team since 2007 with 18 returning starters. Colorado State could have its worst team in five years. Yet because some look upon this matchup as some sort of in-state rivalry, the spread is less than double-digits. Wrong number. The Buffaloes should roll past the Rams with huge edges in the trenches and in the passing game. Colorado is deep at running back and has a top wide receiver in Shay Fields. Colorado State has to replace it's entire defensive front and is thin and inexperienced in the secondary. Senior Buffaloes quarterback Sefo Liufau and Fields should put up big numbers. The Buffaloes showed defensive improvement last year and that should continue this season. They return nine defensive starters plus get back suspended senior nose tackle Josh Tupou. Colorado State lost its best receiver from last season. The Buffaloes have won and covered five of the last six in this series and are in great position to extend that run given the timing of this matchup.
|
02-07-16 |
Panthers v. Broncos +4.5 |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
324 h 5 m |
Show
|
Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up. The Panthers are this big of a favorite, in part, because of how strong they looked in beating the Cardinals by 34 points in the second of the two championship games. Denver holding New England to just 18 points the AFC title game is just as impressive, though. The Broncos held the Steelers and Patriots to an average of 17 points in playoff competition while dealing Tom Brady his lowest quarterback rating of the season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos ranked No. 1 in total defense, pass defense and sacks. Carolina's defense isn't as dominant relying on an NFL-best 39 takeaways and plus 20 turnover ratio. The Panthers are down two starters in their secondary and likely to be missing star linebacker Thomas Davis, who suffered a broken arm against the Cardinals. Davis was playing as well as any Carolina defender. Denver lost its starting safeties against New England, but both vowed to play in the Super Bowl. Carolina only beat one opponent, Seattle, with a winning record when it was playing outside of Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers lost to Atlanta the last time they were away from home. The Panthers have been to one Super Bowl - back in 2003. They are an inexperienced in this setting and a shaky favorite having nearly blown late leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants and Seahawks in the playoffs when they won 31-24 after being up 31-0. The Broncos are 'dogs in this range because of the quarterback matchup. Cam Newton deserves to be the MVP. Peyton Manning is Alex Smith now. But Manning also looked the healthiest he's looked in months. Manning may be the wisest quarterback to ever play. Certainly he's in that discussion. He knows his defense is elite - capable of winning the Super Bowl. There is no more opportunistic team than the Panthers. The key for the Broncos is not turning the ball over. Manning's regular season statistics show horrific numbers - a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a last-place passer rating. However, the savvy Manning hasn't turned the ball over during the playoffs. He had a 103.8 quarterback rating in the first half against the Patriots. Manning has better wide receivers than Newton and is smart enough to stay away from shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Instead, Manning will ride C.J. Anderson, who has been at least Jonathan Stewart's equal averaging 5.6 yards a carry during his last four games, and let his defense win the game. The Broncos just played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are looking for atonement for a 43-8 loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers' defense isn't nearly as dominant as Seattle's was two years ago especially minus starting defensive backs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They also could be down safety Roman Harper and pass rusher Jared Allen. Newton and the Panthers are thrilled to be on center stage. How will they handle it? Accuracy isn't Newton's strength. If he comes out tight the Broncos' elite defense surely will take advantage. Wade Phillips is one of the sharpest defensive coordinators of all time. He has two weeks to prepare and major cards to defend against Newton, including a pair of dominant edge pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The bottom line is taking more than a field goal with an elite defense, more experienced big-game team and having one of the sharpest quarterbacks of all-time with a better supporting cast around him.
|
01-24-16 |
Cardinals v. Panthers -3 |
|
15-49 |
Win
|
100 |
156 h 27 m |
Show
|
Carolina is a rising power that is ready to make the next leap having made the playoffs a third straight season. This is the Panthers' best team as evidenced by 16-1 record and eight players being named to either the first or second team Pro Bowl squad. Cam Newton is the likely MVP accounting for 45 touchdowns and more than 4,400 yards throwing and running. Newton is more trustworthy than Carson Palmer, who also has enjoyed a brilliant campaign but hasn't played well in Arizona's past two games. The Cardinals were buried at home by the Seahawks and were lucky rather than good versus the Packers this past Saturday night winning in overtime. Palmer had not won a playoff game in his 13 seasons until that win against Green Bay. He was fortunate not to have thrown more than two interceptions as Sam Shields dropped several poorly thrown passes by Palmer. Led by cornerback Josh Norman and linebacker Luke Kuechly - perhaps the two best at their respective positions - the Panthers led the NFL with 39 takeaways. The Cardinals' luck at avoiding injury stopped late in the season. They are minus safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Alex Okafor. The Cardinals rarely can generate quarterback heat unless they blitz. Newton has the mobility and strength to avoid blitzes. Palmer has the bigger name wide receiving targets. Larry Fitzgerald has enjoyed a monster comeback season regaining his status as an elite receiver. Carolina, though, has the far superior tight end in Greg Olsen and the more experienced, proven running back in now healthy Jonathan Stewart, who easily outplayed Marshawn Lynch last week in returning from a foot injury. The Panthers have won 12 consecutive home games, including defeating the Cardinals in the playoffs last season, 27-16. Arizona was down to third-string Ryan Lindley in that matchup. The Cardinals are 7-1 on the road this season. Only one of those victories, however, was against an opponent that made the playoffs. Palmer isn't playing well and the Cardinals' ground attack has produced an average of just 2.1 yards per carry during their last two games. The Cardinals can be overwhelmed at the point of attack especially when their ground attack isn't clicking. Arizona also has a weak kicking game. Drew Butler is among the worst punters in the NFL and Chandler Catanzaro missed five extra points during the season.
|
01-24-16 |
Patriots -3 v. Broncos |
Top |
18-20 |
Loss |
-115 |
153 h 10 m |
Show
|
Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. Peyton Manning is just a year older than Brady, but he's washed-up done in by multiple neck surgeries and a foot injury that had kept him out of action since Nov. 15 until a lackluster start this past Sunday against the Steelers where he needed a Pittsburgh fumble to put up his lone touchdown. Manning is nothing but a glorified game-manager lacking a sterling ground game to fall back on, or set him up to keep pace with Brady. Manning has never been very good in the postseason even in his prime. He is 5-11 in his career versus Brady and 1-5 in the playoffs when the temperature has been under 40 degrees. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven postseason contests. The Broncos were just 5-4 straight-up and ATS in Manning's nine starts. Manning finished 35th in passer ratings with a horrendous 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Patriots have a top-10 defense, including a top-10 run defense. Their key linebackers did get nicked up against the Chiefs this past Saturday, but Bill Belichick always has versatile defenders and is deep at the position if some of his starters can't go. Neither Manning, nor Brock Osweiler, are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Broncos rely on their defense. Ben Roethlisberger threw for nearly 340 yards against them with a sore shoulder and no Antonio Brown. Brady is capable of more with a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and healthy Julian Edelman. New England averaged 33 points per game and a 50 percent third down conversion rate with Edelman and only 23 points and a 30 percent third down conversion rate in the seven games Edelman missed with a foot injury. Edelman is the key to the Patriots' up-tempo, quick-rhythm strike offense that doesn't need a sufficient ground game. The Patriots put up 27 points on the Chiefs defense, which was playing even better than Denver's. New England's offense should be even more well tuned this week with Edelman getting the rust off. The Patriots catch a break with Denver cornerback Chris Harris dealing with a shoulder injury. Given the liberal rules that favor offense in this era, Brady has a clear advantage on Denver's defense. Manning is in his dotage, nothing more than a glorified game manager. He won't be able to keep pace.
|
01-11-16 |
Alabama v. Clemson +7 |
Top |
45-40 |
Win
|
100 |
136 h 0 m |
Show
|
Now that plus 7's are on the board, I'm pouncing on Clemson, unbeaten this season and winners of 17 in a row. Alabama is not the dominant monster team that is perceived by many. That perception was fueled by the Crimson Tide destroying Michigan State last week. Credit to Alabama for playing great in that matchup. But Clemson is nothing like the Spartans. Clemson's strengths directly play against Alabama, unlike Michigan State. Alabama played its Game of the Year against Michigan State, fueled by Big Ten revenge after a 42-35 bowl loss to Ohio State last season and having three weeks to prepare for the Spartans. Michigan State doesn't have the offensive talent, nor plays the style of offense, Clemson does. The Spartans, in hindsight, were sitting ducks for Alabama. Michigan State's Connor Cook is a dropback quarterback operating a pro-style offense. The Crimson Tide is much more geared to stop this type of offense rather than Clemson's option. The Tigers' Deshaun Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. Unlike Michigan State, Clemson has playmakers at the flanks and it spreads the field. The Crimson Tide are going to encounter problems handling Watson and this type of offense, especially with just one week to prepare. This is especially pertinent in light of Crimson Tide defensive coordinator Kirby Smart shuttling responsibilities after being named Georgia's head coach last month. Clemson pushes pace with its up-tempo attack. This keeps Alabama from making its normal substitution patterns thereby reducing its team depth. Look at who Alabama has lost to during the last three years - at home to Mississippi this season- then last season at Mississippi and to Ohio State in the bowl semifinals - also 45-31 to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl in 2013. Clemson rolled past the Sooners, 37-17, this past week. Go back to 2012 and you'll find the Crimson Tide losing at home to Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel. The common denominator is these are spread offenses with mobile quarterbacks none of whom is better than Watson, who is light years ahead of Alabama quarterback Jake Coker.
Clemson has covered in its last four bowl games. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games, while Alabama is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.
|
01-09-16 |
Chiefs -3 v. Texans |
Top |
30-0 |
Win
|
100 |
125 h 44 m |
Show
|
Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team. The Chiefs have played the stronger competition being in a much tougher division. They have a balanced offense with a superior quarterback in Alex Smith, who rates an edge on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs' defense is holding foes to only 14.5 points during their last 12 games and should have Justin Houston back this week. Houston led the NFL in sacks last season. The Texans are going to be without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Duane Brown. He's out for the season after suffering a torn tendon in his right quad this past Sunday. The Chiefs have the best turnover ratio in the AFC at plus 14. Their secondary has a 12-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio in their last 11 games. The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate) Over 5 1/2 Sacks Look for these two teams to exceed 5 1/2 sacks. Kansas City ranked No. 4 in sacks with 47 while the Texans were No. 5 with 45. J.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks this season with 17 1/2. A year ago, Justin Houston led the NFL in sacks. Houston is expected back for the Chiefs this week after missing the last five games with a knee injury. He had 22 sacks last season. Alex Smith was sacked 45 times this season. Only two quarterbacks were sacked more times. Smith is highly mobile, but also highly conservative. He would much rather go down that take a shot on completing a pass. He is the total opposite of a gunslinger. Brian Hoyer isn't as mobile as Smith and won't have his best pass blocker as left tackle Duane Brown was injured last week and is out for the season.
|
01-03-16 |
Raiders +7.5 v. Chiefs |
Top |
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 44 m |
Show
|
The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders. Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season. The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset.
|
01-01-16 |
Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern |
Top |
45-6 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 6 m |
Show
|
Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee. Northwestern won some close games versus mediocre Big Ten opponents such as defeating Penn State by two, Purdue by seven and Illinois by 10 during its past four games. But the Wildcats were smashed 38-0 by Michigan and 40-10 by Iowa. The Wildcats were fortunate enough to not have to play against Ohio State and Michigan State. The Wildcats have strong defensive statistics, but I wasn't impressed with the offenses they faced to built those numbers. Tennessee came on strong to win its last five games. The Volunteers nearly beat Oklahoma and Alabama leading both in the fourth quarter falling to the Sooners in overtime. Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs improved from his sophomore season completing nearly 60 percent of his throws for more than 2,100 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also rushed for 623 yards and another nine touchdowns. Dobbs threw multiple touchdown passes to seven different receivers. Northwestern lacks Tennessee's explosiveness - and that includes special teams. The Volunteers had six return touchdowns, three each on punts and kickoffs. Evan Berry led the nation in kickoff returns with 38.3 yards per return and three kickoff return touchdowns.
|
12-31-15 |
Oklahoma v. Clemson +4 |
Top |
17-37 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even.
Yes, three players are suspended for Clemson. The only one, though, with some impact is Deon Cain, the Tigers' second leading receiver. He's a talented deep threat, but the Tigers have other weapons. Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. He has a superb running back in Wayne Gallman and talented receivers. The Tigers averaged nearly 40 points on the season - and they did it facing tougher defenses than Oklahoma did squaring off against Florida State, Boston College, North Carolina State and Notre Dame. I like Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, too, but statistics are skewed from the Big 12 because it's such an offensive-oriented conference with several weak teams. Clemson has a very strong defense headed by lineman Shaq Lawson, who led the nation with 22 1/2 tackles for losses.
|
12-30-15 |
Wisconsin v. USC -3 |
Top |
23-21 |
Loss |
-120 |
326 h 27 m |
Show
|
USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. Big Ten teams aren't equipped to handle Pac-12 passing offenses and upper tier quarterbacks. USC has such a quarterback in Cody Kessler. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes this season. If you combine this season with last year, Kessler has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 67-to-11. Wisconsin's strength is its defense. But the Badgers don't have enough secondary depth to stop Kessler and a deep USC receiver group that had 10 players haul in double-digit receptions headed by dynamic sophomore Juju Smith-Schuster. He caught 85 passes for 1,389 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Badgers can't match that because they have a below average quarterback, Joel Stave. He's been picked off six times in his last four games. Mediocre quarterbacking, with the exception of one year or Russell Wilson, is the norm at Wisconsin. The Badgers have always been able to overcome that because of an outstanding ground attack. That hasn't happened this season, though. The Badgers never adequately replaced Melvin Gordon. Wisconsin finished 97th in rushing yards. Wisconsin failed to beat a winning team this season. That's telling. USC had no bad losses except to Washington. The Trojans aren't as good as Stanford, Notre Dame and Oregon - all teams they lost to. But the Trojans are better than the Badgers with huge skill position edges at quarterback with Kessler, wide receiver with Smith-Schuster, all around player in Adoree Jackson and even running back with Ronald Jones II. USC has never lost to Wisconsin in six previous meetings. The Trojans have covered in nine of their last 12 games versus Big Ten schools. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has played in neutral site games.
|
12-28-15 |
Central Michigan +4.5 v. Minnesota |
Top |
14-21 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 15 m |
Show
|
I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush. Rush threw for multiple touchdown passes in nine of 12 games. He has five players with 33 or more catches. Minnesota has an excellent secondary, but I like Rush especially on the fast track of indoor Ford Field. Central Michigan should have a better following with this game being played in Detroit. Minnesota played two MAC schools and won by three points each time, beating Ohio and Kent State. Both Minnesota and Central Michigan played Kent State. Central Michigan beat Kent State, 27-14, while the Gophers nipped the Golden Flashes, 10-7. The Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Big Ten and 5-0 versus non-conference foes. After Jerry Kill was forced to step down to health issues, the Gophers went 1-4. They finished with only five wins, but earned a bowl bid based on their NCAA Academic Progress Report since not enough teams reached six wins necessary for bowl eligibility. So technically the Gophers don't even deserve to be here. I don't buy them as favorites against the caliber of quarterback they are facing and an opponent as feisty as they are.
|
12-27-15 |
Packers v. Cardinals -4 |
Top |
8-38 |
Win
|
100 |
145 h 9 m |
Show
|
Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. Mike McCarthy rarely has led Green Bay to victory in games the Packers weren't expected to win. The Packers are just 17-16 in their last 33 away games with a losing spread mark in those games. This is Green Bay's second West Coast game in a row. The Cardinals are 25-4 with Carson Palmer under center. Palmer is backed by three good wide receivers, a reliable offensive line and exciting rookie David Johnson, who already has set a Cardinals first-year mark for most touchdowns in a season with a dozen. The Packers will be without their top cornerback, Sam Shields. The Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored, total yards and passing. They are 20-11 (65 percent) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians. The Packers are 3-10-1 ATS as underdogs since 2012. Green Bay's passing attack is struggling and its ground attack remains inconsistent. Eddie Lacy is having a terrible season. Arizona's defense ranks in the top seven in fewest points allowed, yards given up and rush defense. The Cardinals have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground. Arizona's pass defense style is tight man press coverage. The Packers' wide receivers have trouble getting separation. Randall Cobb is Green Bay's only receiving playmaker with Jordy Nelson sidelined. So the Packers are going to have problems with this type of defense preferring soft Cover-2 zone types. Aaron Rodgers isn't on same page with McCarthy continually being frustrated by the Packers' regression in the passing game. Rodgers also will be without his blindside protector as left tackle David Bakhtiari is out.
|
12-27-15 |
Steelers -10 v. Ravens |
|
17-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
71 h 35 m |
Show
|
Surprised to see Pittsburgh a double-digit favorite at Baltimore? Don't be. Oh, the Ravens will play hard. John Harbaugh will see to that. But the Ravens simply don't have nearly enough healthy talent to compete against elite level competition. And the Steelers have become an elite team. They've won five of their last six scoring at least 30 points in every one of those games. The Ravens are down 18 players for the season, including eight starters. Their defense is a shell of what it once was and they have no playmakers left on offense. It's why the Ravens are 2-5 at home, their worst home record in their 26-year history in Baltimore, and why they are on pace to have the fewest takeaways in team history with just 11 right now. Neither Jimmy Clausen nor Ryan Mallet nor Matt Schaub has the skill set and weapons to keep pace with Ben Roethlisberger. Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Marcus Wheaton have combined to haul in 19 touchdown passes. DeAngelo Williams is going to be a 1,000-yard rusher replacing Le'Veon Bell. The battered Ravens might even be without cornerback Jimmy Smith, too.
|
12-27-15 |
Browns +11.5 v. Chiefs |
|
13-17 |
Win
|
100 |
71 h 33 m |
Show
|
On paper it seems hard to go against the Chiefs. They've won eight in a row outscoring their foes by an average of 17 1/2 points during their win streak. But my handicap to the Browns is a combination of the Chiefs' talent being overrated - they are more opportunistic than great in my view - and the Browns playing hard to try to save Mike Pettine's job. Credit to Andy Reid and the Chiefs for coming back from the dead after a 1-5 start. But take notice of who the Chiefs have recently played: The Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Chargers again and Ravens. The Chiefs are using backups at running back - a key position for them - and have a lackluster passing attack. They are winning by forcing turnovers - getting at least one during their past 10 games. Sure Cleveland could turn the ball over with Johnny Manziel at quarterback. But he's also capable of making big plays. The Browns, unlike other bottom feeders, have some talent in left tackle Joe Thomas, tight end Gary Barnidge, strong safety Donte Whitner and wide receiver/returner Travis Benjamin. Those players, along with Manizel, all happen to publicly come out and call for Pettine to keep his job. That's a nice loyalty gesture. You would think now they would back up their word by playing hard. The Chiefs' pass rush could be down if Tamba Hali can't play due to a broken thumb. Already out is Justin Houston. Those are the Chiefs' two best edge rushers.
|
12-26-15 |
Tulsa +14 v. Virginia Tech |
Top |
52-55 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. Tulsa was one of the most improved teams in the country under first-year head coach Phil Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane are very dangerous offensively under the innovative Montgomery and they've been coming on as the players became more comfortable in his system scoring at least 38 points in all but one of their last six games. On the season, the Golden Hurricane average 35.9 points per game. Only 13 teams averaged more yards per game than the Golden Hurricane's 502 yards. They also ranked 11th in passing behind quarterback Dane Evans, who has a top target in Keyarris Garrett. Garrett had the second most receiving yards in the FBS with 1,451. I detect that Virginia Tech could be a little tight for this matchup trying to give Beamer a sendoff, while Tulsa will be loose without any pressure enjoying their first bowl game in three years. The Hokies also will be without three suspended seniors - starting linebacker Deon Clarke and two reserve receivers.
|
12-24-15 |
Cincinnati v. San Diego State -3 |
Top |
7-42 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 45 m |
Show
|
Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. The Bearcats have regressed going from Brian Kelly to Tommy Tuberville. The Bearcats finished a disappointing third in the weak American Athletic Conference. Their loaded offense couldn't compensate for a terrible defense. Cincinnati lost to five of the six good teams on its schedule falling to Temple as a home favorite, Memphis, BYU, Houston and to South Florida by 38 points just two games ago. Only twice did the Bearcats win on the road and that came by three points against East Carolina on a field goal at the gun and a four-point win against Miami of Ohio when they were laying three touchdowns. Tuberville brings no confidence. Not only are the Bearcats traveling five time zones - their previous longest trip was to Provo, Utah where they lost by two touchdowns to BYU - but are 0-2 the past two seasons in bowl games under Tuberville. Cincinnati lost by 14 points as a short favorite last season to Virginia Tech and fell by 22 points to North Carolina two seasons ago as a short 'dog. San Diego State is far less likely to be distracted and bothered playing in Hawaii. They've won and covered this year and in 2013 at Hawaii. The Aztecs beat the Warriors, 28-14, in a pick'em game back in October when Hawaii was competitive. Unlike Cincinnati, San Diego State won't be leaving winter weather to travel and their time zone change is three hours shorter. Most important is the matchup factors favor San Diego State, too. The line is shorter than I thought it would be possibly due to senior Maxwell Smart not starting for San Diego State due to an ACL injury he suffered two games ago. I'm expecting Smart to play, but I'm fine, too, if backup redshirt freshman Christian Chapman goes. He led the Aztecs to a 27-24 victory against Air Force in the Mountain West Conference title game passing for more than 200 yards. The Aztecs aren't about throwing, though. They are about defense and D.J. Pumphrey, one of the top running backs in the country and the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He's rushed for 3,421 yards and scored 39 touchdowns the past two years. Cincinnati surrendered more than five yards per run, ranking 92nd in the nation in rush defense. San Diego State ranked in the top 10 defensively in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. By contrast, Cincinnati's defense ranked 89th in fewest points and 82nd in total yards. Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be making only his third start for Cincinnati. Gunner Kiel, who had started 23 of the Bearcats' last 25 games, won't play due to personal reasons. Moore has some excellent receiving targets, but not only is he facing a top defense but one of the more unconventional ones as San Diego State coach Rocky Long employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme. Moore can expect heavy pressure. Add it all up and San Diego State is an easy call.
|
12-20-15 |
Cardinals -3.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
40-17 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 34 m |
Show
|
Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game. Arizona is first in yards per game and No. 2 in scoring averaging 31.2 points. Carson Palmer has thrown for 31 touchdown passes, second-highest in the league. The Eagles have surrendered 29 touchdown throws, second-most in the league. In their last six games, the Eagles have permitted 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions as injuries make their already ineffective secondary worse. Palmer has a healthy receiving group and should have a clean pocket as the Eagles have only managed one sack or fewer in three of their past four games. Palmer can rely, too, on big-play David Johnson as his featured running back. The Eagles have yielded an average of 4.92 yards per carry to running backs during their last seven games. Arizona is 24-4 with Palmer under center. The Cardinals also are 19-11 (63%) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians, who has extra prep time this week with the Cardinals having played last Thursday. The Eagles need an "A" game to hang in against the Cardinals. They haven't produced one all season. The Eagles' ground attack has turned out to be overrated and is a mess right now. Arizona has held six of its last seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing. The Eagles haven't scored more than 23 points since Week 9. They struggle against tight man coverage, which the Cardinals are talented enough to play. The Cardinals rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense. Only six teams surrender fewer points per game than the Cardinals, which hold foes to 19.4 points a game.
|
12-20-15 |
Packers -3 v. Raiders |
|
30-20 |
Win
|
100 |
97 h 36 m |
Show
|
The Packers are playing very good defense and their offense is back in sync with Eddie Lacy running well - like he usually does late in the season - and Mike McCarthy calling plays again. Green Bay is better than Oakland on both sides of the ball. The Raiders are improved, but still several tiers below Green Bay. Oakland has played better on the road going 4-3 compared to 2-4 at home. Derek Carr is showing signs of hitting the wall. Latavius Murray already has. Aaron Rodgers isn't having an MVP season, but he still has a 28-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Timing means a lot in the NFL. The Raiders are catching the Packers at a time when Green Bay has picked up its game. The difference between these two teams when playing in Oakland is far closer to a touchdown than a field goal.
|
12-20-15 |
Bears +5.5 v. Vikings |
|
17-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
27 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Vikings are much improved under Mike Zimmer, but they are not an elite team and they are not built to cover margins of more than a field goal - especially against division foes - with a passing attack that ranks 31st. Only once has Teddy Bridgewater thrown for more than one touchdown pass in a game. While Zimmer has done an excellent job, so has the coaching staff of the Bears. Since Week 4, Chicago has gone 5-5. The Bears lost two of those games in overtime and the other three by a combined eight points with none of those defeats occurring by more than three points. One of those losses was 23-20 to the Vikings in Week 8 on a Minnesota field goal at the gun. Adrian Peterson can expect to see a stacked line keying on him. Not only is Bridgewater a bottom tier quarterback - far more game manager than playmaker - but the Bears rank second in pass defense. The Bears' offensive line has shown improvement and their key wide receivers - Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royals - should be healthy enough to play. Jay Cutler is playing under control thanks to new offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Cutler is an easy target to rip, but I like him far more than Bridgewater. The Bears also now have two good running backs with Jeremy Langford keeping Matt Forte fresh. The Vikings will be without linebacker Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith again and possibly nose guard Linval Joseph. Their defense isn't as good without those key defenders.
|
12-19-15 |
Jets -3 v. Cowboys |
Top |
19-16 |
Push |
0 |
103 h 22 m |
Show
|
Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. Dallas can't win outside of its weak NFC East Division. They are 1-7 in non-division games. Dallas is bad at home. The Cowboys are 2-8, including losing five in a row, during their last 10 home contests. The Jets underachieved the last couple of seasons. A main reason for that was the poor coaching of Rex Ryan. That's changed under Todd Bowles, a much better coach than Ryan. The Jets have playoff talent. Bowles is getting the most out of it. Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career season. He's played as well as any quarterback during the last three weeks posting 100-plus ratings in each game during this span with a combined 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
|
12-13-15 |
Patriots -3 v. Texans |
|
27-6 |
Win
|
100 |
135 h 21 m |
Show
|
This game has been moved to Sunday night. The Texans are not prime time ready. New England certainly is. It's rare to get the Patriots off a loss. It's near impossible to ever get Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off consecutive losses. The last time that happened was 2002! Belichick and Brady are coming off rare bad performances for them. I want them going for me in this spot. Before getting upset by the Eagles this past Sunday, the Patriots were 8-0 straight-up and ATS when coming off a loss, with an average winning margin of 14 points. The Texans haven't been able to put together a consistent ground attack since losing Arian Foster. New England, however, is far more banged-up. That's a big reason why this line is so low. Still, no coach is better than Belichick at finding role players to fill in the niches and no quarterback is better than Brady in putting them in position to succeed. I fully expect Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, James White and Scott Chandler to play well replacing Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Rob Gronkowski. The Texans weren't able to take advantage of Buffalo missing its starting right guard and right tackle last Sunday. The Texans only had one sacks against the Bills, none by J.J. Watt. This is a rare marquee matchup for the Texans. They have a number of former Patriot coaches and players. But their biggest game of the season actually comes next week when they play the Colts in a matchup that will hold huge implications for the AFC South Division title. The Patriots are used to pressure games and performing under the national spotlight. Not so with the Texans.
|
12-13-15 |
Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos |
|
15-12 |
Win
|
100 |
83 h 58 m |
Show
|
The Raiders have actually played better on the road where there is less of a winning expectation. Apparently this, perhaps subconsciously, has removed some of the pressure from their young players. Oakland has won three away games. The last time the Raiders did that was in 2011. Derek Carr is a much better quarterback than Brock Osweiler, who is more game manager than downfield threat. Only two of Carr's nine interceptions have come on the road. Carr also has only been sacked five times on the road compared to 11 at home. He has 26 touchdowns throws with a chance to set the Raiders' franchise record for TD passes in a season. Denver is extremely banged-up. Both of the Broncos' running back, C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, are nursing injuries. Denver's offensive line is thinned by injuries and its defense could be missing four starters. The Broncos know how to win, but they are not built to cover margins like this. Only three of their 10 victories have come by more than seven points. Denver is averaging just 17.7 points during regulation in its last four games. The Raiders held the Broncos to without a touchdown on offense in a 16-10 loss in Week 5.
|
12-13-15 |
Steelers +3 v. Bengals |
|
33-20 |
Win
|
100 |
80 h 54 m |
Show
|
The Bengals took advantage of a rusty Ben Roethlisberger when they beat the Steelers, 16-10, in Week 8. Roethlisberger threw three interceptions in his first game back after missing four games because of a knee injury. Look for Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offense to play far better this time around. The Steelers actually outgained Cincinnati in that game. Roethlisberger is averaging 383.2 yards passing in his last four games throwing for 10 touchdowns during this span. Antonio Brown is a monster when Big Ben is behind center. He's caught seven touchdown passes in the eight games Roethlisberger has played. Making matters worse for the Bengals is their secondary has injuries. Cornerback Adam Jones is not expected to play due to a foot injury. Cincinnati also may be missing cornerback Leon Hall with a back injury and free safety George Iloka with a groin injury. Another cornerback, Dre Kirkpatric, is limited by a knee injury. Jones, Hall and Kirkpatrick are all veteran cornerbacks. If they're limited - or absent - the Bengals are forced to rely on a pair of rookies one being undrafted Troy Hill against one of the top passing offenses in the league. The Steelers have only given up three rushing touchdowns all season. I like Roethlisberger far better than Andy Dalton if this one turns into a shootout, which it very well could do. The Bengals have been fortunate up to this point with injuries. That luck, though, is running out. Cincinnati has only outgained five of its last 10 opponents. The Bengals are ripe for a fall with a three game division lead on the more desperate 7-5 Steelers. Pittsburgh has a strong history playing at Cincinnati and playing in December. The Steelers have won and covered in four of their last five visits to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh also is 8-0 straight-up and ATS in its last eight December games.
|
12-13-15 |
Redskins v. Bears -3 |
Top |
24-21 |
Loss |
-125 |
105 h 22 m |
Show
|
Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. The Redskins have been terrible on the road losing the past nine times while going 2-7 ATS. They are 0-5 away this season outscored by 76 points in these matchups for an average losing margin of 15.2 points. During the Jay Gruden era, the Redskins are 1-12 on the road, 4-9 ATS. They have lost by 10 or more points in eight of those 12 road contests. Kirk Cousins has a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a completion rate of less than 62 percent. The Bears rank No. 2 in pass defense. Not only do I like the Bears' passing game more with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery, but also their ground attack with a two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. The Redskins are a ground-and-pound team, but they don't run well nor stop the run. The Redskins rank 26th in run defense and 25th in rushing.
|
12-10-15 |
Vikings v. Cardinals -7.5 |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
37 h 10 m |
Show
|
It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday. Arizona is 17-4 under Bruce Arians when playing at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 16 home games when Carson Palmer has been under center. Palmer has a 38-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in these games. Sparked by Palmer, an MVP candidate, the Cardinals rank first in the NFL in yards and points per game. They draw a battered Vikings defense missing three of their key defenders in injured safety Harrison Smith, nose tackle Linval Joseph and linebacker Anthony Barr. That's too much for the Vikings to overcome especially on a short week with long travel involved when their is limited time to make adjustments. The Vikings lack the necessary strong passing game to keep up with Palmer and high-powered Cardinals offense.
|
12-06-15 |
Colts v. Steelers -7 |
|
10-45 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 54 m |
Show
|
The Colts couldn't win a shootout last year against Ben Roethlisberger losing 51-34 at Pittsburgh. That was with Andrew Luck. I don't see the Colts keeping up with Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's high-scoring offense this year with Matt Hasselbeck and a having a worse team than from a year ago. Hasselbeck is 4-0 replacing Luck. Kudos to him. But there's a due factor - and the clock is ticking. I see it stopping in this matchup. The Colts dominate their weak AFC South Division brothers. Out of division, though, they have problems. Roethlisberger has led the Steelers to three consecutive games of scoring at least 30 points. The Colts don't have the quarterback to keep up, nor the defense to slow down the Steelers especially minus underrated injured linebacker Jerrell Freeman. Pittsburgh ranks fourth in total yards despite not having Roethlisberger for four games and is seventh in run defense. They have too much balance for the Colts, who rank 22nd in yards and 26th in yards given up.
|
12-06-15 |
Broncos v. Chargers +4.5 |
|
17-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
103 h 28 m |
Show
|
Denver is in a prime letdown spot traveling to sunny San Diego after upsetting New England at home in a prime time Sunday night victory at home in frigid conditions. The Broncos won in overtime exerting a lot of energy in coming back from two touchdowns down in the final quarter. The Broncos could be down three starters on defense on top of already being thin in the offensive line. The Broncos are led by Brock Osweiler, who has done a nice job since replacing Peyton Manning. But the Broncos are not a downfield, attacking type team. They are run-oriented and short-passing with Osweiler, not built to cover mid-size spreads against division foes on the road especially in a flat spot like this. This has been a lost year for the Chargers. But they did get a large part of their confidence back by winning on the road last week. Philip Rivers is having another brilliant campaign. He makes the Chargers live to beat any foe. The Chargers have come close against the Bengals losing by five points, hung tough against the Packers having a chance to force overtime at the Green Bay three-yard line before running out of downs late in the game and losing at the gun at Baltimore. The Chargers are getting healthier, especially at linebacker. Rivers' savvy covers up their offensive line injuries and Melvin Gordon ran better last week.
|
12-06-15 |
Ravens v. Dolphins -4 |
|
13-15 |
Loss |
-105 |
100 h 7 m |
Show
|
It's not that I'm in love with Miami. This handicap is far more of a fade on Baltimore. The Ravens are decimated without their quarterback, top running back, top wide receiver, top pass rusher and perhaps three starting offensive linemen. All together, the Ravens have lost a staggering 17 players for the season. Yet the Ravens pulled off an improbable road win on Monday night against division rival Cleveland. It's one of the few times the Ravens get to celebrate this season. It also puts them in a terrible situation to go back on the road on a short week to face a frustrated Dolphins team that is much healthier than the Ravens. The Dolphins have been disappointing much of the season. But they are 3-4 under interim coach Dan Campbell compared to 1-3 under disposed coach Joe Philbin. Campbell isn't going to outsmart many opposing head coaches, but the Dolphins have been more physical under him and usually have been at their best in a bullying role. That's the spot here as the Ravens are the Ravens in name only. Injuries have reduced their talent level to bottom of the barrel. Matt Schaub has a 12-to-18 touchdown-to-interception ratio since 2013. He has become the king of Pick-Sixes throwing five of them during this span. A switch in offensive coordinators should help the Dolphins revitalize their ground attack, which would make Ryan Tannehill more effective.
|
12-06-15 |
Cardinals -5.5 v. Rams |
Top |
27-3 |
Win
|
100 |
148 h 30 m |
Show
|
The Cardinals have revenge for a frustrating 24-22 loss to the Rams in Week 4 when they had to settle for four field goals in four touchdown-less red zone trips. Arizona still is playing at an elite level, while the wheels have come off for the Rams. They've lost four in a row and there's talk Jeff Fisher could be out as coach. Carson Palmer ranks among the top three in passer rating, touchdown throws and yards passing. The Cardinals have won in 22 of his last 26 starts. He has a full complement of receivers now, too, with Michael Floyd and John Brown healthy. The Rams have the worst passing attack. Neither Nick Foles nor Case Keenum, who is likely to be back under center, is NFL-starter quality. The Rams try to compensate with running back Todd Gurley. But with a decimated offensive line and defenses keying on him, Gurley has been held to an average of less than 44 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per carry during his last three games. Arizona has a top five run defense. St. Louis' defense is getting worn down from having to carry such a weak offense. A strong pass rush has been their calling card. However, the Rams have managed just four sacks in their last four games. The Rams have one of the weaker home fields in the league due to rumors of their moving and their poor record. This game sets up well for the Cardinals and the line figures to keep growing. So my advice is to lock in now.
|
12-05-15 |
North Carolina v. Clemson -4.5 |
|
37-45 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 3 m |
Show
|
Early money has been on North Carolina shrinking the line in this ACC title matchup. I believe that money is wrong. Clemson is the better team on both sides of the ball and is experienced in huge games, something the Tar Heels are not. This is North Carolina's first ACC championship game. Clemson took advantage of the Tar Heels' lack of defense last year winning, 50-35, at home. Deshaun Watson accounted for seven touchdowns in that game and the Tigers rolled up 528 yards. True, North Carolina is much improved defensively from last season. But the gap still is larger than this spread. North Carolina has won 11 in a row. Impressive, but its schedule wasn't that difficult. Two victories came against FCS opponents. The Tar Heels and Tigers did meet five common foes. Clemson allowed an average of 150 yards less per game than North Carolina did against those foes and nearly 11 fewer first downs per game than North Carolina did against those opponents. The Tar Heels can't match Clemson's big game pedigree either. Clemson upset Ohio State in the Orange Bowl two seasons ago and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, in its bowl game last season. North Carolina played in lesser bowl games the previous two seasons. I respect North Carolina's skill position players, but I like Watson better than any other college quarterback and I want him going for me in this game. Watson was the only player to pass for at least 3,000 yards and rushed for 756 yards. He also completed 70.4 percent of his throws, third-best in the nation. The Tar Heels have failed to cover nine of the past 14 times as an underdog under Larry Fedora.
|
11-29-15 |
Rams v. Bengals -8 |
|
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 49 m |
Show
|
The Bengals are anxious to return to their winning ways after losing the past two weeks in nationally televised losses to the Texans and Cardinals. Cincinnati is very tough at home where they have covered 17 of their past 22 games. Cincinnati doesn't have a major weakness and is one of the healthiest teams in the league. The Rams' strength is their defense and running back Todd Gurley. The Bengals have a balanced attack and a defense that allows 18.6 points per game, fourth-lowest in the NFL. I see the Bengals trumping the Rams on both sides of the ball. St. Louis' offensive line is decimated down three starters. Left tackle Greg Robinson has looked terrible. The Rams quarterback situation of Case Keenum and Nick Foles could be the weakest in the league and can't take advantage of the Bengals loading the box to stop Gurley. The Rams have scored fewer than 20 points in 60 percent of their games. They are averaging 14.6 points in their last three games. Their passing attack ranks last. This also has been a very distracting week for the St. Louis players with its teammate, Steadman Bailey, getting shot. So focus could be an issue, too. The Rams can't hang close unless they produce an "A" effort. I don't see that happening based on matchups and situation.
|
11-29-15 |
Bills +6.5 v. Chiefs |
|
22-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
58 h 45 m |
Show
|
The Bills are a gritty team whose defense has improved as the season winds down with the players becoming more familiar with Rex Ryan's schemes. Buffalo just held the Patriots, with their second-rated offense, to a season-low 20 points. Kansas City is getting a lot of love, though, in this matchup because it has won and covered four in a row. Kudos to Andy Reid for keeping the Chiefs together after a tough early-season, but his team isn't that good. The Chiefs hit a lucky patch during their win streak. First they beat the Steelers when Pittsburgh had to use Landry Jones at quarterback. Jones is one of the worst backups in the league. The Chiefs then caught the Lions in London when Detroit was still in disarray and had just made a switch in offensive coordinators. Kansas City then drew the Broncos when Peyton Manning was playing hurt and at his most ineffective. After that win was a victory last week against a messed-up, injury-racked Chargers squad that was at their lowest ebb. The Chiefs rank well below average in passing, which is no surprise with Alex Smith at center. Smith can win given weapons, but he's not going to pile on points. Because of their passing limitations, the Chiefs heavily rely on their tailback. That tailback could be third-stringer Spencer Ware. So Smith doesn't have outstanding weapons.
|
11-29-15 |
Chargers +4.5 v. Jaguars |
Top |
31-25 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 44 m |
Show
|
So why back a San Diego team that is 2-8 and has lost six in a row as a monster 50-Dime play? A combination of Philip Rivers, a due factor and the Jaguars being overpriced. Jacksonville doesn't beat teams. Opponents lose to them. There's a difference. San Diego is approaching this matchup as a challenge and a test of character. Non-division foes usually treat the Jaguars with overconfidence. Yes, the Jaguars are better than last season. Their defense is more competitive and Blake Bortles has improved in his second season. But the Jaguars still are not very good. They've gone six consecutive games with at least one turnover. Bortles is always live for a pick-six and has been sacked more than any other quarterback during the last two seasons. The Chargers' pass rush has gotten better recording 18 sacks during their last seven games. Rivers makes the Chargers competitive. He's having another super season throwing for the second-most yards in the league while leading the NFL in completions and throwing for 19 touchdowns. San Diego was blown out by the Chiefs in their last game. People remember that. Maybe they should also recall the Chargers losing to the then unbeaten Bengals by five points, nearly forcing overtime against the Packers when they were stopped at the 3-yard line on fourth down and goal at the end of the game and falling to Baltimore on the last play of the game. All of those games were on the road. When it comes to coaching, I like Mike McCoy much better than Gus Bradley. McCoy is innovative and tough on non-division foes not familiar with him. Bradley is too conservative, one of those many coaches who plays not to lose rather than win.
|
11-28-15 |
Ohio State v. Michigan |
Top |
42-13 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 45 m |
Show
|
Michigan State didn't do Michigan any favors beating Ohio State last week ending the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak. The Buckeyes are going to be super focused now and ready for this game and not just because of the long-time intense rivalry. Ohio State has proven itself on the road covering 71 percent of its last 56 road games. Jim Harbaugh has been everything Michigan could have hoped for this season restoring the Wolverines back into elite status. But Michigan isn't in Ohio State's class yet. The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 in the series. Urban Meyer won't hold a coaching edge like he has on past Michigan coaches, but he does still have a talent advantage. Ezekiel Elliott is going to get the ball a lot. He didn't show a lot of class after the Buckeyes fell to the Spartans, but he's one of the best running backs in the country. Elliott has rushed for 3,336 yards the past two seasons and scored 35 touchdowns. Michigan couldn't stop Indiana on the ground two weeks ago as Jordan Howard ran for 238 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries.. Ohio State has a better ground attack than the Hooisers. The Wolverines aren't going to be able to control Elliott, who will set things up for J.T. Barrett. I'm not a huge fan of Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock, even though he has played well lately. He's not good enough to carry the Wolverines if they don't establish at least a semblance of a ground attack, which I don't see them doing. The Buckeyes have an extremely physical line. De'Veon Smith is the Wolverines' starting running back, but he's a grinder not suited to attack a physical defense.
The Buckeyes rank 30th in run defense and fifth in pass defense. Only two players in the country have more career sacks than Ohio State's Joey Bosa, who has 25.
|
11-26-15 |
Panthers +1 v. Cowboys |
Top |
33-14 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 2 m |
Show
|
Sometimes the best handicap formula is just the most obvious. Carolina is better than Dallas and it's not even close. I understand timing is very important in NFL games. It's not always who you play, but when you play. The Cowboys are 3-0 when Tony Romo has been under center. He'll be playing Thursday and shouldn't have any rust after returning last Sunday after missing seven games. The Cowboys are home and in a desperate spot being 3-7. I would be surprised if Dallas didn't put forth a full, focused effort and played a good game. I'm expecting that. But it's not going to be enough to beat Carolina. It's not just happenstance that the Panthers are 14-1 in their last 15 games. They have a tremendous defense, much superior's to Dallas. Carolina ranks in the top eight in all of the most important defensive categories, including rating in the top five in allowing the fewest yards and points per game. Linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman are two of the best defensive players in the league. The Panthers have outgained their opponent in 15 of their last 17 games. It's impossible to predict turnovers, but the Panthers are No. 1 in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. Dallas is second-to-last with a minus nine turnover ratio. Thanks to Cam Newton's MVP-candidate type season, the Panthers are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.9 points per game. Newton has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his last 15 games. Jonathan Stewart is a much better running back than recycled Darren McFadden. The Panthers received some good news this week in that left guard Andrew Norwell will be back after missing the last three games. He could be the Panthers' first or second-best offensive lineman.
|
11-22-15 |
Bengals +5 v. Cardinals |
|
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 10 m |
Show
|
Aside from the Patriots, the Bengals shouldn't be more than a field goal underdog to any team. The Bengals will be especially fired up to redeem themselves after being upset on Monday night at home by Houston. This play isn't against the Cardinals. I like Bruce Arians a lot. The Cardinals are normally a play-on team - just not in this matchup at this price. Arizona isn't helped being banged up in the offensive line and at wide receiver with Michael Floyd and John Brown each questionable. The Cardinals have been fortunate to play an easy schedule. Five of their victories have been against foes whose offenses are near the bottom of the statistical rankings. The Bengals are solid up and down. They don't have a serious weakness and own a 7-1-1 ATS mark. Andy Dalton is having his finest season backed by weapons at wide receiver, running back and tight end with Tyler Eifert, who has nine touchdowns in the red zone this season.
|
11-22-15 |
49ers v. Seahawks -12 |
|
13-29 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 17 m |
Show
|
No, the 49ers can't stay within two touchdowns of Seattle. Not with Blaine Gabbert and not down to street free agents at running back. Seattle has been dominant at CenturyLink Field and dominant versus San Francisco. The Seahawks are 15-3 in their last 18 home games with 11 of those victories coming by double-digits. They are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing the 49ers. The 49ers haven't been able to break the 20-point barrier during any of their last nine meetings against the Seahawks, averaging a puny 10.8 points per game during this span. San Francisco has been held to 13 points combined during its last three games against Seattle. The Seahawks beat the 49ers, 20-3, in Week 7 outgaining the 49ers, 388-142. That was the 49ers' lowest yardage total in nine years. Gabbert is a downgrade on Colin Kaepernick, who was the quarterback in the first meeting. Gabbert lacks pocket presence and doesn't have anywhere near the mobility Kaepernick possess. Seattle's offensive line finally has shown signs of coming around. The Seahawks are enduring a frustrating season. Look for them to take out their frustrations at home on a hapless foe. The 49ers have gone from one of the better coaching staffs to one of the most overmatched. There is no love lost between these two division rivals. Pete Carroll won't be shy about sticking it to the 49ers.
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11-22-15 |
Jets -3 v. Texans |
Top |
17-24 |
Loss |
-120 |
26 h 41 m |
Show
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Not only are the Texans on a short week in an emotionally distracting week following their Monday road upset win against the Bengals, but backup T.J. Yates is their quarterback for this game. Brian Hoyer is near the bottom among starting quarterbacks. But Yates is far worse. He's a game-managing, dump-off passer who won't have his former security blanket, Arian Foster. This is a circle-the-wagon game for the Jets, who have lost three of their last four. They have the better skill position players and the superior defense. The Jets have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played a week ago from Thursday. That's allowed Nick Mangold and a beaten-up secondary to recover along with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who formerly played for the Texans.
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11-15-15 |
Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 |
Top |
39-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
65 h 8 m |
Show
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The Seahawks haven't lost a game coming off a bye since 2012. I don't see them losing at home either in this matchup. Seattle is 4-4. Arizona is 6-2. Obviously this is a must-win spot for Seattle. The Cardinals haven't faced a defense of this caliber on the road all season. Their offense is good, but not as powerful as the statistics show. Arizona has won five of its six games against defenses that are ranked among the bottom nine - Saints, Browns, 49ers, Lions and Ravens. The one really good defense the Cardinals went against was the Rams - and that was at home. The Cardinals still lost that game. Seattle's defense is picking up steam. Look for the "Legion of Boom" to be in full force. The bye week came at a good time for Seattle, which was in need of regrouping. Their offensive line should perform better with left tackle Russell Okung expected back. Then there is the Seahawks' dominant home field advantage. During the last four years, the Seahawks are 28-3 at CenturyLink Field, 20-10-1 ATS.
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11-15-15 |
Cowboys +2 v. Bucs |
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6-10 |
Loss |
-108 |
58 h 45 m |
Show
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The good news for the Cowboys is they finally get back Tony Romo next week. The bad news is the Cowboys are 0-6 since Romo broke his collarbone. If they don't beat the Buccaneers then Romo's presence isn't going to mean anything. This is a must game for Dallas - and I see the Cowboys getting a victory against this lowly opponent that doesn't know how to close out foes. Tampa Bay also has been an abject failure at home going 1-12 in its last 13 games at Raymond James Stadium, 3-10 ATS. In games decided by six or fewer points under Lovie Smith, the Bucs are 2-9. Matt Cassel has gotten better each week he's been Dallas' starting quarterback. The Cowboys have come close in their last two games falling by one point to the Seahawks and in overtime to the Eagles. The Cowboys are short 'dogs. They are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times when getting points. The Buccaneers are a step down in class for the Cowboys.
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11-15-15 |
Browns +5.5 v. Steelers |
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9-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
58 h 40 m |
Show
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I can't see Ben Roethlisberger playing in this game. That puts the Steelers in peril for this heated, division rivalry game because the Browns, while not talented, can be ornery. They have an excellent track record as underdogs, too, 10-5-1 ATS since Mike Pettine became coach in 2014. Subtract Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell. Sub in Landry Jones, one of the weakest backup quarterbacks in the league, and the Steelers' offense loses their potency. The oddsmaker realizes this. That's why this is one of the lowest totals on the board. So taking more than four points is huge. The Browns have had 10 days between games having played in last Thursday's game. That's given them enough time to get Josh McCown back along with wide receivers Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins and several defensive backs from their battered secondary. Cleveland is not going to the playoffs. So the Browns have few chances to get up for games. This is one of those times against a hated division foe that has kicked them when they were down. With their bye coming up next week, I expect the Browns to hold nothing back. McCown has played surprising well for them. He holds a quarterback edge on Jones. I'm fine if McCown doesn't play and Johnny Manziel does since he's practiced with the first-unit all week and has shown improvement. He brings a running dimension that McCown doesn't.
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11-14-15 |
Washington State +10.5 v. UCLA |
Top |
31-27 |
Win
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100 |
34 h 5 m |
Show
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Everything is in place for Washington State to pull the upset and defeat UCLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the Cougars should definitely be able to hang in. To get double-digits is a nice bonus. I like UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen. But I really like Washington State sophomore quarterback Luke Falk. He leads the country in passing yards with 3,376. He's also tied for second in touchdown throws with 33 against just seven interceptions. The Bruins defense has been hit hard by injuries. There isn't a senior starter left. The Bruins shut out Oregon State last week. I actually believe that works in Washington State's favor. Not only did it perhaps play a part in this inflated line, but it gives the Bruins a false sense of confidence. Oregon State has a depleted offense. The Cougars are cooking behind Falk. The team is comfortable in Mike Leach's high octane system this being his fourth season in Pullman. The Bruins haven't had experience dealing with Leach's unique schemes being so young on defense. Washington State has won seven of its last eight games while also going 7-1 ATS. The Cougars are 4-2 in the Pac-12 with their defeats occurring to California by six and Stanford by two. The Cougars led by more than a touchdown in the second half against both of those teams. Washington State has covered all six of its Pac-12 games. The Cougars are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Playing in the Rose Bowl is a big deal to them. UCLA has covered only one of its last six home games and is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as home chalk.
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11-09-15 |
Bears +4.5 v. Chargers |
Top |
22-19 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 54 m |
Show
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San Diego isn't nearly good enough to overcome its multitude of injuries to beat many teams by more than a field goal, including the Bears. The Chargers have lost six of their last seven game. They are on a four-game losing streak. The Chargers' two victories have come by a total of eight points. Those wins were against the Lions and Browns, whose combined record is 3-14. Chicago has been better than perceived thanks to excellent coaching from head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both of whom came from the Broncos and are very familiar with San Diego. The Chargers, though, aren't so familiar with the Bears, who they last played in 2011. Each of the Bears' last four games have been decided by three or fewer points. Jay Cutler has been much better this season. He's been aided greatly by the well-respected Gase. Having Alshon Jeffery back makes a huge difference for Chicago's offense. The Chargers have surrendered 24 or more points in every one of their games. San Diego has zero rushing touchdowns in its last seven games. Chicago hasn't yielded a rushing touchdown in its last five games. Philip Rivers is having another super season, but the Chargers are not balanced and minus their best wide receiver, Keenan Allen. Chicago won't have Matt Forte. But Jeremy Langford is an underrated backup and Chicago is far healthier than the Chargers. San Diego will be without its left tackle and center. The Chargers also could be down a third starting offensive lineman as left guard Orlando Franklin is doubtful. Tight end Ladarius Green isn't likely to play either. The Chargers are beat up, too, defensively. Linebackers Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman are out. Three other key defenders - lineman Corey Liuget, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Eric Weddle - are questionable. Unlike the Bears, the Chargers have not had their bye yet. That comes next week. They are battered and worn down. It's too much to ask them to cover a point spread of more than a field goal.
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11-08-15 |
Eagles -2.5 v. Cowboys |
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33-27 |
Win
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100 |
58 h 55 m |
Show
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Dallas beat the Eagles, 20-10, back in Week 2. It was a costly victory as the Cowboys lost Tony Romo. They haven't won since going 0-5, 1-4 ATS. Dallas is averaging less than 15 points a game during its last four games. Matt Cassel has been as bad as Brandon Weeden and that's as bad as it gets. The Cowboys have scored two touchdowns in their last three games. Dez Bryant is back, but his value is shot because he doesn't have a quarterback who can get him the ball. He caught just two passes for 14 yards last week. The Eagles are rested coming off their bye week. They are healthy again on defense. Philadelphia is very underrated defensively ranking in the top three against the run and top seven versus the pass, according to Football Outsiders. The Eagles have picked off 11 passes while permitting 10 touchdown throws. They have 19 takeaways in seven games. The Cowboys, by contrast, have one takeaway during their last five games. Dallas has given up an average of 4.74 yards per rush during its last five games. Chip Kelly is sharp enough to tweak his system to feature more running plays for DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to take advantage of Dallas' weaknesses. The Eagles' ground attack has picked up averaging 5.1 yards per rush during the last three games.
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11-08-15 |
Raiders v. Steelers -4 |
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35-38 |
Loss |
-105 |
102 h 25 m |
Show
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Bad spot for Oakland. Near desperation time for Pittsburgh. The Raiders are coming off a hugely satisfying home win against the Jets. Now, though, they have to fly East for an early start time against the Steelers. The Raiders are 1-15 SU, 6-10 ATS in their last 16 Eastern Time Zone games. Look for Pittsburgh's passing attack to be much better now that Ben Roethlisberger had a game to get the rust off. Losing Le'Veon Bell hurts, but the Steelers are fortunate enough to have one of the better backup running backs, DeAngelo Williams. Oakland ranks second-to-last in pass defense. The Raiders have surrendered at least two touchdown passes in every game but one. Pittsburgh's defense has been much better than perceived ranking fifth in fewest points allowed at 18.4 per game. That number shrinks to 16 points in the Steelers' last six games. Pittsburgh has held four teams to their lowest point total of the season, including the Patriots, Bengals and Cardinals. At 4-4 the Steelers are in must-win mode.
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11-08-15 |
Titans +8.5 v. Saints |
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34-28 |
Win
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100 |
50 h 57 m |
Show
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Look for the Titans to come out fired-up playing harder and with more intelligence under new coach Mike Mularkey.
Marcus Mariota gives the offense a huge lift and the running game should work better against the Saints, who allow the second-most yards per game in the NFL and third-most points per game at 29.2.
Tennessee has an underrated secondary and it's going to be better this week with Perrish Cox, the team's best cornerback, set to return from an injured hamstring.
The Saints achieved three of their four victories by a combined 15 points and that includes a six-point win in overtime. Their other victory was by 10 points against the Falcons, who were minus three in turonver ratio.
The Saints simply aren't good enough to be laying more than a touchdown like this against a team that should show much better than what is perceived due to Mariota being back and a coaching change.
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11-07-15 |
Minnesota v. Ohio State -23.5 |
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14-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
38 h 43 m |
Show
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No pun intended, but the Buckeyes are in a "Kill' spot here. A big factor why is Minnesota having little left in the tank after an emotional home game last week against Michigan. That was the Gophers' first game following Jerry Kill's resignation due to health reasons. The Gophers gave everything they had as double-digit 'dogs, but lost 29-26. The Gophers had driven all the way to Michigan's 1-yard line at the end of the game, but were stuffed and didn't execute good clock management. Now the physical and emotionally-spent Gophers go on the road against the top team in the nation. Making matters worse for Minnesota is that Ohio State is rested after being idle last week. Urban Meyer teams are 15-4-1 ATS off a bye, 7-2 ATS the past nine times. Ohio State is 22-1 since last season. They have won the statistics battle in every one of those 23 games. J.T. Barrett is suspended, but I see no drop-off in quarterbacks for the Buckeyes with Cardale Jones. He's a monster upgrade on Minnesota's Mitch Leidner, one of my least favorite quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Leidner has only two more touchdowns than interceptions. Ohio State backup quarterback Braxton Miller is far better than Leidner. It's not just Jones. The Buckeyes are loaded everywhere, including running back where Ezekiel Elliott leads the Big Ten in rushing and has rushed for triple digits in his last 13 games.
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11-07-15 |
Hawaii v. UNLV -9.5 |
Top |
21-41 |
Win
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100 |
36 h 21 m |
Show
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I've never been in the habit of laying points with UNLV, but circumstances make this a bargain spot to back the Rebels. UNLV is much improved under first-year head coach Tony Sanchez. He's been the best Rebels coach in nearly 30 years. The Rebels are far better offensively with quarterback Blake Decker in the lineup. He returned last week from missing two games with a shoulder injury and helped the Rebels hang with Boise State for more than three quarters before their defense caved. Now the Rebels step way down in class to host a bone weary Hawaii team in disarray following a 58-7 loss to Air Force last week, the team's worst home loss in school history. Hawaii coach Norm Chow was fired right after that defeat. The Warriors return to the mainland for the fifth time in seven weeks. This also marks the Warriors' 10th consecutive week of playing. They have not had a bye all season. This would be brutal on any team, but it hits the Warriors even harder because they are undersized and lack depth. Their defense couldn't stand up to Air Force running the ball 83 times. Hawaii's defense was on the field for 45 minutes. Before that game, Hawaii faced five opponents in a row who ran the ball 50 or more times.
While Hawaii is dealing with extreme fatigue issues and being in disarray with a coaching change this late in the season, UNLV is in revenge mode. The Rebels lost in controversial fashion to the Warriors last year on the road, 37-35, when they were penalized twice for excessive celebration following a go-ahead touchdown with 15 seconds left. The Rebels believed they were homered in that game by a slow moving clock official. Hawaii pulled out that victory with a touchdown pass on the final play. So don't expect the Rebels to be sympathetic to the Warriors and their sad plight.
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11-07-15 |
Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +9 |
|
42-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 45 m |
Show
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Notre Dame got past Temple, 24-20, in a physical road matchup last week. Now the Irish get a physical Pittsburgh team coached by Pat Narduzzi. He was Michigan State's highly respected defensive coordinator and knows the Irish well. Pittsburgh has played Notre Dame very tough. The Panthers won the last meeting, 28-21, at home two years ago. The Panthers also covered against the Irish in 2011 and 2012 losing each of those games by three points. Notre Dame is 8-13 ATS during its last 21 road contests. The Irish have been riding backup quarterback DeShone Kaiser. He's played well for the most part, but doesn't always make wise decisions. Pitt has gotten steady play from junior quarterback Nathan Peterman, who has completed close to 68 percent of his throws and has a 10-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Panthers also have one of the best wide receivers in the nation, Tyler Boyd. He's just 49 yards away from holding Pitt's school record for receiving yards.
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11-05-15 |
Browns v. Bengals -11 |
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10-31 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
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I can't see anything but a lopsided Bengals victory here. Cincinnati has way too much offense for Cleveland. The Bengals won't come in overconfident either after suffering a stunning home loss to Cleveland last year on a Thursday night. The Browns are going to be missing three members of their secondary, steady wide receiver Brian Hartline and starting quarterback Josh McCown. I have no faith that Johnny Manziel can keep Cleveland in the game against this caliber of defense and on a short week.
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11-03-15 |
Northern Illinois +8 v. Toledo |
Top |
32-27 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 10 m |
Show
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Toledo is unbeaten at 7-0. But I'm not convinced the Rockets are better than Northern Illinois. The Huskies very well could have the better skill position players and defense. They are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. This includes a 7-1-1 ATS mark the past nine times they've been a road underdog. Northern Illinois quarterback Drew Hare has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 142 quarterback rating. Toledo quarterback Phillip Ely has a 15-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 128.9 passer rating. The Huskies' three losses came to Central Michigan by 10 even though they outgained Central Michigan by 41 yards, by seven on the road to Ohio State and by three on the road to Boston College. The Huskies also have defeated the Rockets during the past five meetings.
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