Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville | Top | 35-17 | Push | 0 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
Notre Dame is going to get its points in this one. Louisville's defense was terrible last season giving up an average of 44.1 points and 483.5 yards a game. The Cardinals ranked among the bottom-four in those important defensive categories. They are on their fourth defensive coordinator in four years. Making it worse, the Cardinals also got poor punting last season. Notre Dame averaged better than 36 points a game last year after Ian Book became its starting QB in Week 4. I can't see Louisville keeping up. The Cardinals have many questions on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Scott Satterfield seems like a good hire based on his track record at Appalachian State. But it's going to take time to fix the huge mess Bobby Petrino left him. Drawing Notre Dame for their opener is a real bad break for the Cardinals, who have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home games and are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 nonleague games.
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09-01-19 | Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
I'm not buying that Oklahoma is more than three touchdowns better than Houston. In fact, I like Houston QB D'Eriq King more than Sooners QB Jalen Hurts. I regard King as the top QB in college football especially now that he has Dana Holgorsen as his head coach. King has the rare opportunity to showcase his skills in front of a national TV audidence with the game on ABC. Holgorsen is an offensive guru. He was head coach at West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers played Oklahoma last season and narrowly lost, 59-56. The Sooners shouldn't be laying this high of a number to such a strong offense. Oklahoma was last in the nation in pass defense in 2018 while ranking at the bottom in the Big 12 in scoring defense and total defense. The Sooners also have a question mark at kicker as the FBS' all-time leading scorer among kickers, Austin Seibert, has left. This is going to be a shootout of the highest proportions. Houston was very weak against the run last season. And that was with stud Ed Oliver. But the Cougars have defensive line depth, experience at the safety spots and get to go against the Sooners in their first game breaking in four new offensive line starters.
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08-31-19 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +4 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 172 h 41 m | Show |
Virginia Tech's defense was historically bad under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster last year. The Hokies should be improved as they can't get much worse. But it's going to take time. The Hokies gave up 31 points a game last season, which ranked 85th. They were 98th in yards allowed and their run defense ranked 106th. BC has one of the top running backs in the nation, AJ Dillon. He's fresh and healthy, something he wasn't last year. Eagles QB Anthony Brown has experience and is capable of running the offense. He has improved as a passer. The Eagles won, 31-21, against Virginia Tech last season on the road. I do think the Hokies will be better, but this isn't a good matchup for them and it's the first game. So I'll gladly accept these points.
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08-31-19 | Akron +19 v. Illinois | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
Illinois isn't nearly good enough to be laying this many points even to a low-level MAC team such as Akron. The Illini have averaged three wins during the past three seasons during the Lovie Smith era. The Illini finished 1-6 in their last seven games and and had the worst defense in the Big Ten. They ranked fifth from the bottom in the NCAA in yards allowed. They are not used to this reverse role where the pressure not only is on them to win but cover a huge number. Akron won't lack motivation playing its first game under new coach Tom Arth. The Zips have firepower. Their strength is at the skill positions with quarterback Kato Nelson and three decent wide receivers. The Zips upset Northwestern, 39-34, in their first road game last season. Illinois also played Northwestern last year and lost to the Wildcats, 24-16.
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08-30-19 | Colorado State v. Colorado -12.5 | 31-52 | Win | 100 | 154 h 50 m | Show | |
The gap has gotten wider between these two in-state rivals. That was evident last season when Colorado blasted the Rams, 45-13. I see the Buffaloes winning by at least two touchdowns again. New Colorado head coach Mel Tucker will be wanting to make a statement. He has the wide edge in athletes to accomplish that. The Buffaloes should be solid on defense under defensive-minded Tucker and their offense should pick up being more up-tempo than before under Mike MacIntyre. Steven Montez is a solid quarterback and the Buffaloes are deep at receiver. Laviska Shenault is in the argument for best wideout in the nation and the Rams are shaky at linebacker. Note this game is being played in Denver. Colorado State has failed to cover the past eight times it has played at a neutral site.
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08-30-19 | Purdue -9.5 v. Nevada | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 250 h 47 m | Show |
If I could pick one wide receiver to have on my college football team it would be Purdue's Rondale Moore. He's the most exciting player in college football in my view. This is a perfect storm of key factors that point to Purdue beating Nevada by double-digits. Moore heads up a very strong group of Purdue receivers. Even tight end Brycen Hopkins is very good for the Boilermakers. Senior QB Elijah Sindelar is underrated at this point. He's going to have a big season with so many talented receiving targets. Nevada has a very weak secondary. The Wolf Pack also are untested at quarterback, smaller than Purdue and weaker in the trenches. The Boilermakers have been pointing to this game for a long time after being humiliated, 63-14, by Auburn in the Music City Bowl. Purdue has won each of its road openers under Jeff Brohm beating Nebraska, 42-28, last year and Missouri, 35-3, two seasons ago. Those are better teams than Nevada. The Boilermakers can't misfire here knowing Vanderbilt and TCU are up next for them before they enter Big Ten action. So expect a strong, focused effort from the better team that should result in an easy victory. |
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01-20-19 | Rams +3.5 v. Saints | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 10 m | Show | |
The Saints hosted the Rams back in Week 9. The Rams were 1 1/2-point road favorites. Now look at the spread. There's a difference of four points, which I don't see between these two teams. These are the two best teams in the NFC deserving of meeting in the title game. But in my view the Rams are slightly better and that isn't negated by the Saints being home. It was huge for the Rams that they played earlier this season in the Superdome. They now have more of an idea of what to expect. Yes, the Saints beat the Rams, 45-35. But the score was tied 35-35 and the Rams had a chance to deliver a knockout blow to the Saints. They didn't do it - this time. The Saints are at their best inside their dome. But a fast-track, carpet field without weather conditions is helpful for the Rams, too. They are explosive with reliance on speed. Jared Goff is far better when not affected by bad weather. Take away their road loss to the Bears in cold weather and the Rams would be averaging 36.6 points a game. This is the first time LA is getting points all season. The Saints are going to have to score a ton of points to win and even more to cover the spread. Lost in the glare of the Saints' playoff victory against the Eagles was New Orleans losing defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. He suffered a torn Achilles. That's a huge defensive loss for New Orleans. Rankins finally was living up to his vast potential with eight sacks while playing the run well. Sean McValy is a coaching genius. I rank him as the best coach in the NFC. He had the vision to make the Rams more of a physical team instead of just a finesse passing team. He did this on a fly, too, implementing that late in the season. The move paid off against a Cowboys defense that is better than the Saints defense. The Rams ran for 273 yards against a Cowboys defense that ranked fifth versus the run. On the flip side, the Rams held NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott to 47 yards rushing on 20 carries. LA has a trump card on defense: Aaron Donald. He's the most dominant defensive lineman in football. He's be operating against Audrus Peat, who is playing with a broken hand. Donald can disrupt the Saints offense just by himself.
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints -8 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
No the Saints aren't blowing out the Eagles by 41 points like they did at home in Week 11. Philadelphia's secondary is in better physical shape and Nick Foles has replaced ailing Carson Wentz at quarterback. But this isn't enough to keep the Eagles within a touchdown of the Saints. New Orleans is a level higher this season than the Eagles and playing inside their dome stadium where Drew Brees threw 22 touchdown passes with just one interception. The Eagles struggled against Mitch Trubisky on grass last week surviving only because of Cody Parkey's bad luck on his final field goal attempt. Brees on a fast track with Alvin Karma, Michael Thomas and Mark Ingram is too much offense for the Eagles. Karma and Ingram both are far superior to any of the Eagles running backs. Thomas is the best wide receiver on the field. The Eagles carry a fatigue rating playing in their third straight road matchup while the Saints are rested. Offensive mastermind Sean Payton is dangerous with extra prep time. The Eagles have failed to cover nine the last 13 times they have played on carpet. Foles may be the top backup quarterback in the league. But if he were a starter he would rank among the bottom half. Foles has started the past four games. He has an eight-to-five TD-to-interception ratio during this time. The Saints are much improved defensively. During Weeks 10 through 15 - when they were competing hard for playoff seeding - the Saints gave up 12.3 points per game. No team scored more than 17 points on them during this time. You need a balanced offense and ball-control to beat the Saints inside the Louisiana Superdome. The Eagles rank 28th rushing. New Orleans has the No. 2 run defense. Credit to the Eagles for getting this far. But their journey to repeat as Super Bowl champions ends here.
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01-12-19 | Cowboys v. Rams -7 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 39 m | Show | |
There are three major reasons why I like the Rams to beat the Cowboys by more than a touchdown: Situation, home/road data and coaching. Let's start with the situation. LA is rested. The Rams should be well prepared given two weeks to prepare with Sean McVay, who just might be the sharpest offensive-minded coach in football. The Rams won 11 games under McVay last season emerging as a force. However, the Rams suffered from playoff inexperience and lost in the first round to the Falcons. This year the Rams won 13 games and improved even more. Jared Goff and Co. now have playoff experience. A rested Todd Gurley trumps Ezekiel Elliott especially with a far better downfield passing attack on his side. The Cowboys entered this season having won one playoff game in Jason Garrett's previous seven years as head coach. McVay versus Garrett is a huge coaching mismatch in LA's favor. Home/road splits are huge for both teams. The Rams went 7-1 at home, averaging nine more points per game at home while giving up 8.2 points less per contest. Goff is a California quarterback. His quarterack rating was nearly 35 points higher when he played in LA. Dallas, by contrast, averaged 7.5 points fewer per game when on the road with Dak Prescott's quarterback rating being nearly 24 points lower away from Dallas. The Cowboys averaged a league-low 5.8 points in the first half when on the road. The Cowboys are heavily run-oriented. Prescott has severe limitations when throwing more than just short passes. The Cowboys also have a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. They are not built to come from behind if the Rams should jump out to a big lead against them.
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01-12-19 | Colts +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -105 | 121 h 48 m | Show |
Andy Reid is a likely Hall of Fame coach. But when it comes to the playoffs he is a Hall of Fame chump. Reid's team have lost eight of their last nine playoff games. This includes a 1-4 postseason mark with the Chiefs. The Titans upset the Chiefs as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs last season in the Chiefs' first playoff game. These Colts are far better than that Tennessee team. The Chiefs went just 3-3 down the stretch going 1-4-1 ATS with their lone cover coming against the Raiders. Indianapolis is 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Colts' defense has been far better than perceived. So has their offensive line, which gave up the fewest sacks in the league. Marlon Mack has emerged as a running back threat. He's better than any of Kansas City's running backs with Kareem Hunt gone. Patrick Mahomes had a great season. But so did Andrew Luck, who threw the second-most TD passes on the season in back of only Mahomes. Luck has playoff experience, something Mahomes lacks. Kansas City's defense has played better at home. But the Colts hold a defensive edge. They've held five of their last six foes to 21 points or fewer. The Chiefs defense surrendered the second-most points per game and second most-yards per game. The Colts have become a physical unit that can play ball control. That's the way to beat the Chiefs.
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +5.5 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 115 h 3 m | Show |
Clemson isn't getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Tigers are every bit as good - if not better - than Alabama. Yes, the SEC is a better football conference than the ACC. No argument there. But I will argue the Tigers passed a tough schedule with flying colors beating 10 Bowl teams, eight of them by 20 or more points. Clemson is every bit as dominating as Alabama ranking fourth in points scored while giving up the fewest points per game in the nation. The Tigers have proven themselves huge money-winners in the postseason, too, covering eight of their last nine bowl games. Alabama's defense showed some vulnerability against Oklahoma. True, the Sooners have a great offense. But so does Clemson. I like Tigers QB Trevor Lawrence much more than Kelly Bryant. The Tide defeated Clemson, 24-6, in the Sugar Bowl last season when Bryant was behind center. This time around it will be much different.
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01-06-19 | Chargers +3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 39 h 22 m | Show |
The Chargers are that rare team that plays better on the road than at home. The reason for this is they really don't have a home-field advantage playing at sparsely populated StubHub Center in Southern California. The Chargers are 8-0, though, in games outside of Southern California. They have won in five different time zones and won't be intimidated here. The forecast for Sunday in Baltimore is sunny with temperatures in the 40s with around a 10-12 mph wind. So it's not like the Chargers are going into frigid conditions. Baltimore dominated the Chargers, 22-10, on the road just two weeks ago. Until that loss, the Chargers were in the argument for best team in the league. So maybe they needed a loss like that to sharpen them up and energize their focus. There is no secret to the Ravens. They are going to pound the ball, play for field position and rely on their excellent defense. The Chargers won't be ambushed again by the Ravens. Baltimore beat the Chargers after LA had knocked off the Chiefs the previous week on the road. So it wasn't a great spot for the Chargers. I respect the Ravens. Their defense is better than the Chargers. John Harbaugh is an above average coach, while Anthony Lynn is untested in playoff games. But I believe the Chargers are the better all-around team. Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen give the Chargers the best skill position players. The Chargers also get back big-play tight end Hunter Henry for the first time this season. They also have change-of-pace Austin Ekeler back. He missed the first game against the Ravens. Ekeler is a key because he's good pass-catching back and can hurt the Ravens via screen passes, which would slow down the Ravens' pass rush. The Chargers know what's coming. They are going to be prepared for Baltimore's ground attack by loading up the box. Lamar Jackson is an outstanding running QB, but he's not a good downfield passer.
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01-01-19 | Texas +13.5 v. Georgia | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
Not sure of Georgia's motivation for this game after playing for the national title game last season and falling short against Alabama this season. I'm not doubting the Bulldogs' talent. But Texas is going to be up for this game. The Longhorns never lack talent either and they have the best underdog coach going for them in Tom Herman. How good of a 'dog coach is Herman? If you take his last four jobs as offensive coordinator and head coach his teams are 23-2 ATS for 92 percent when taking points! Texas has a pair of dangerous big-play versatile receivers in Collin Johnson and Lil' Jordan Humphrey. The Bulldogs are without their top defensive back, Deandre Baker, who is sitting out the game to prepare for the NFL draft.
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01-01-19 | Washington v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
I want Ohio State going for me in Urban Meyer's final game as Buckeyes coach and the price isn't too high to get it. The Pac 12 is down this season. That's reflected in the bowls. Washington is one-dimensional relying on a strong defense. But Ohio State has a great offense ranking No. 2 in the nation in yards gained and seventh in points. The Buckeyes average 17 points more per game than the Huskies and play in the stronger conference in my view. If the Huskies fall behind early they are in big trouble because they lack an explosive offense. When motivated the Buckeyes can beat any team with the exception of Alabama and Clemson. Washington isn't close to being in that class. The Huskies lost to Auburn, Oregon and California. Ohio State displayed its power by burying Michigan, 62-39, in its last game. I see a class difference here. Throw in the huge motivating factor to get Meyer a victory in his finale and I'll lay the points.
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12-31-18 | Missouri v. Oklahoma State +10 | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
If Missouri is the better team here, the Tigers aren't more than a touchdown better than Oklahoma State. Both offenses are strong. Missouri has the better defense, but Oklahoma State can score on any team. The Cowboys rank 14th in scoring and 10th in yardage. QB Taylor Cornelius is one of the most dangerous dual threats in the country. Cornelius is backed by talented running backs. The Tigers didn't see a lot of wide open attacks like Oklahoma State has playing in the SEC. The Tigers have good skill position talent, too, but Drew Lock doesn't have Cornelius' mobility and the Tigers could be missing several of their weapons with running back Damarea Crockett, wide receiver Jalen Knox and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam all banged-up. The Cowboys have been point spread gold in nonleague games covering eight of their past nine nonconference matchups.
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -6.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is not a very good Virginia Tech team. The Hokies just were able to sneak into a bowl game. I find Cincinnati to not only be the superior team, but the more motivated one. The Bearcats surrendered 152 fewer yards per game than the Hokies. Cincinnati gave up fewer than 17 points a game, while Virginia Tech allowed nearly 32 points per game. The Hokies can be run on and passed on yielding more than 220 yards both ways. Cincinnati has the skill position talent to exploit Virginia Tech's vulnerable defense with dual threat quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Michael Warren II. The Bearcats also have the best pass rusher in the game in Cortez Broughton and an excellent punter, James Smith. When Virginia Tech loses it is not by a close count. All of the Hokies' six defeats came by 10 or more points.
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12-30-18 | Colts -3 v. Titans | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 48 m | Show | |
The Colts knocked out Marcus Mariota when they played the Titans in Week 11. The Colts buried the Titans, 38-10, in that game. Andrew Luck torched the Titans for 297 yards passing and three touchdowns. Luck is 10-0 lifetime versus Tennessee. Luck is an elite quarterback and now, for the first time, has an elite pass-blocking offensive line. The Colts are very underrated defensively giving up the 11th fewest yards and 13th fewest points. I expect Mariota to start for the Titans. But he's not likely 100 percent and he's not that good even when he is healthy unable to consistenly hurt a defense with downfield throws. The Titans' strategy has become feed Derrick Henry and rely on a good - but not great - defense. The Colts rank eighth in run defense. They are going to stack the line keying on Henry. Then what for the Titans? I don't see them being able to keep up with Luck, who is back to elite status and has found a decent running back in Marlon Mack. If the Colts are able to build a big early lead the Titans are in real trouble because that would take Henry out of the mix. The Colts have been playing extremely well going 8-1 in their last nine games, charging hard for a playoff spot. I believe they are the better team with the much superior quarterback. The Titans' home field is strong, but not strong enough to compensate for them being the weaker foe.
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12-30-18 | Chargers -6.5 v. Broncos | 23-9 | Win | 100 | 112 h 53 m | Show | |
Despite getting manhandled last week by the Ravens, the Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 11-4 and rank in the top 10 both offensively and defensively. The Chargers need this game in their hunt to finish with the best record in the AFC and win the AFC West Division title. They will be playing hard especially following their bad performance against the Ravens. The Broncos are a shot team done in by injuries, low morale and a coach who barring a miracle won't be with the team next season. Denver is reeling as the regular season comes to a conclusion losing the past three weeks to the 49ers, Browns and Raiders this past Monday night. The Broncos are 11-20 under Vance Joseph, who has impressed no one with his coaching blunders. Denver is down three key players - cornerback Chris Harris, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and now its star rookie running back Phillip Lindsay, who suffered a wrist injury against the Raiders. LA is much the better team and has motivation. The Chargers have the best road mark in the NFL at 6-1 SU and ATS. They have posted road victories against much stronger teams than the Broncos beating the Chiefs, Steelers and Seahawks.
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12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5 | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 70 h 33 m | Show | |
When is it OK to lay two touchdowns in a division game? The answer is right here. This is a kill spot for the high-powered Chiefs off two straight losses and looking for a big win to regain momentum for the playoffs. No team gains more yards or scores more points than the Chiefs, who average 35.3 points per game. Patrick Mahomes should be the MVP of the league with his 48 TD passes, which is 12 more than second-place Andrew Luck. The Raiders rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points a game. The Raiders are traveling on a short week after getting a bit of redemption for their disaster of a first season under Jon Gruden having just beaten the Broncos on national TV Monday. I see the Raiders being fat and happy after that win. They don't have nearly the talent to hang against the Chiefs on the road unless they produce an "A" effort. Gruden is going to be around a long time for the Raiders after signing a 10-year contract. I don't see the Raiders entering this matchup with a lot of urgency. They just want this season to be over with. Oakland is 1-6 on the road with the lone victory coming by two points against the punchless Cardinals, who are the opposite of the Chiefs with the worst offense in the NFL. Just two weeks ago the Raiders traveled to Cincinnati and lost by 14 points to the hapless Bengals surrendering 30 points to an outfit that is down their starting quarterback and their three best receivers. The Raiders have lost four road games by 14 points or more. Defense has been Kansas City's major weakness. The Chiefs, though, are giving up a respectable 20.1 points a game when playing at Arrowhead Stadium. The return of star safety Eric Berry improves their defense, too.
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12-30-18 | Cardinals +14 v. Seahawks | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 53 m | Show | |
I understand the Cardinals are dog excrement. They are 3-12 and headed toward getting the No. 1 draft pick. Steve Wilks has been a dismal failure and is likely to be one-and-out as the Cardinals head coach. However ...The Seahawks have no incentive to pile up a big victory here. They clinched a playoff spot this past week. Even if they beat the Cardinals the best they can be is a No. 5 seed. That means the Seahawks may not play Russell Wilson and some of their other key players the entire game. The Seahawks are not some dominant, elite team. Their defense is opportunistic rather than outstanding with 24 takeaways. The Cardinals have better talent than their record shows with David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson. Arizona nearly forced overtime in the first meeting. The Seahawks won, 20-17, on a 52-year field goal with no time left. The Seahawks have won nine games. Only two of those victories, though, were by more than 14 points.
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -3 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 140 h 13 m | Show |
The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 12 road games. They are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in their past six away matchups. The Dolphins are not going to the playoffs and likely will have a new coach and management team in place next season. The warm-weathered Dolphins have no interest in traveling to Buffalo where the forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with wind and a 30 percent chance of snow. That's the situational aspect. The fundamental matchup is the Bills have the superior defense and a far more mobile quarterback. Miami ranks third-from-the-bottom in both yards allowed and fewest yards gained. Ryan Tanneheill is a mediocre quarterback, who is even less effective because of a sore ankle. He has been sacked 20 times in the last five games. Buffalo ranks No. 1 in pass defense and also gives up the second-fewest yards in the league. The Bills' defense is far more respectable than Miami's. Josh Allen provides a spark for the Bills on offense. He's already one of the best running quarterbacks having rushed for 100 yards twice this season. The Bills outgained the Dolphins, 415-175, when the teams met in Week 13. The Dolphins won, though, 21-17. The Bills should have taken a late lead but Charles Clay dropped a throw in the end zone with 53 seconds left. |
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12-29-18 | South Carolina v. Virginia +5 | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
Virginia has steadily improved under Bronco Mendenhall. The Cavaliers reached a bowl game last season and now they are ready to win one after getting crushed by Navy, 49-7, in a bowl game that was more like a home game for the Midshipmen. South Carolina has a strong passing attack. However the Gamecocks have two things against them. They won't have their best wideout, Deebo Samuel, who is sitting out for personal reasons. And they are facing a strong Virginia secondary that ranked 14th in the nation in pass defense. The Cavaliers have an excellent quarterback in Bryce Perkins, a dual threat who accounted for 3,314 all-purpose yards and 31 touchdowns. South Carolina will be without two injured defensive starters, too, tackle Javon Kinlaw and cornerback Keisean Nixon.
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12-28-18 | Iowa State +3 v. Washington State | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 16 m | Show |
There are many reasons to like Iowa State against Washington State especially when the wrong team is favored. Iowa State played in the tougher conference and faced a tougher schedule. The Pac-12 was extremely weak this year. Washington State is a one-dimensional passing team. This is a reflection on its coach, Mike Leach. Iowa State is used to facing passing teams being in the Big 12. The Cyclones have a solid defense. They held West Virginia and Baylor to 14 points each. If the Cyclones can stop Will Grier like they did, they can slow down Gardner Minshew. I find Leach to be an overrated coach. I base much of this opinion on his being 1-7 ATS in his last eight bowl games. The long layoff from the end of the regular season to the bowl game is a real negative for Washington State, throwing off its timing in the passing game. The Cougars are averaging just 16.3 points during their past three bowl games. Washington State was hoping to play in the Rose Bowl. The Cougars had to settle for this minor Alamo Bowl game after losing 28-15 at home to long-time Pac 12 rival Washington. So the Cougars may not be fully motivated. Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy proved himself this season with a 16-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in eight games. He has a pair of tremendous skill position weapons in running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Hakeem Butler. I also like Iowa State coach Matt Campbell. His Cyclones have covered 69 percent of the time in the 36 past instances when they were underdogs of three points or higher. |
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12-27-18 | Duke +3.5 v. Temple | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
Care to lay points with an 8-4 American Athletic Conference school against an Atlantic Coast Conference opponent, who owns victories this season against bowl teams Army, Northwestern, Baylor, Georgia Tech and Miami? I sure don't. That's one reason I'm taking the points with Duke against Temple in the Independence Bowl. Please note this game goes early Thursday. The Blue Devils are going for their third straight bowl win. They have a tremendous bowl and underdog coach in David Cutcliffe, whose teams have covered 60 percent of the time the past 80 times they have been underdogs. Cutcliffe's teams are 8-2 ATS, too, in bowl games. Temple, by contrast, has a messed-up coaching situation. Ed Foley will be coaching just his second game as Owls head coach Geoff Collins left for Georgia Tech. The Owls' biggest wins were against Maryland, which finished with a losing record in the down Big Ten, and Houston. The Cougars just got blasted, 70-14, by Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. It's clear Duke has played a far tougher schedule. Blue Devils quarterback Daniel Jones is a pro prospect. Wrong team favored in my view.
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
Minnesota ranks 74th in run defense. The Gophers give up 5.2 yards per run, second-worst among all bowl team. And these numbers include the Gophers having their best defensive player, senior linebacker Blake Cashman, who is sitting out this game in preparation for the NFL draft. Cashman was in on 104 tackles. If you can't stop the run, you can't beat Georgia Tech with its unique triple-option attack. The Yellow Jackets are the No. 1 rushing team in the country averaging 335 yards on the ground. Minnesota's defense isn't that good to begin with and now facing Georgia Tech and without Cashman it is in real trouble. The Yellow Jackets have an underrated defense ranking 45th in total yards. The Gophers were 89th in yards gained. The topper is the Yellow Jackets will be highly motivated to bury the Gophers as a sendoff to their coach, Paul Johnson. He is retiring after this game.
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
If there is one game the Raiders should be up for it is this one - a Monday night home game in what could be their final game ever in Oakland. The Broncos are a dead team done in the past two weeks by losses to the 49ers and Browns. Vance Joseph is not expected to return as coach. One of Joseph's failing is Denver's poor road record during his two seasons - 4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS - including a seven-point road loss to the Raiders last season. Denver failed to cover when it hosted the Raiders in Week 2, winning 20-19 as 5 1/2-point favorites. Derek Carr completed 29 of 32 passes in that game for 288 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos' secondary is down a key member with cornerback Chris Harris out. Carr rates a strong edge over journeyman Case Keenum.
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12-23-18 | Bengals +10.5 v. Browns | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The Browns are in uncharted waters laying a number this big especially versus a division rival that has just as many wins as they do. I understand why Cleveland is such a large favorite. They are still alive for the playoffs and the Bengals have lost all of their best skill position players except workhorse running back Joe Mixon. All the pressure is on the Browns. They are a young team that has not been in this type of must-win spot before let alone cover a double-digit spread. The Browns are going to take the Bengals' best shot that's for sure. Cincinnati hasn't been swept by the Browns since 2002. The Browns defeated the Bengals, 35-20, on Nov. 25. The game was even more lopsided than the final 15-point margin with Cleveland jumping off to a 28-0 lead and coasting from there. Not knowing how to properly win and being coached by cheap-shot motivator Gregg Williams, the Browns rubbed that victory into the Bengals' faces trash talking during and after the game. The Bengals haven't forgotten about the humiliation, nor Damarious Randall's classless stunt of handing Hue Jackson the football after he interceped an Andy Dalton pass. The Bengals are down their two best wide receivers and top tight end. Mixon, though, has stepped up to become the star running back the Bengals envisioned when they drafted him. He is leading the AFC in rushing. Jeff Driskel isn't as good as Andy Dalton, but he does provide a running threat that Dalton didn't. The Bengals also have played better defense the past couple of weeks. Cincinnati has covered 11 of its past 15 games versus AFC opponents.
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12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 87 h 29 m | Show |
Tampa Bay's defense has shown improvement, but not enough to overcome the Cowboys' ground attack and poor situational spot the Bucs find themselves in. The Buccaneers' defense was on the field for 74 plays comprising 37 minutes against the highly physical Ravens on the road last Sunday. This is their second road game in a row and 11th straight week of playing. I can envision the gassed Buccaneers losing the battle of the trenches to the Cowboys offensive line and superstar running back Ezekiel Elliott. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in run defense. Jameis Winston doesn't often play well on the road. The Buccaneers are averaging only 16.6 points a game in their last three games. Their offense has declined as their defense has improved. The Cowboys have a top-five defense, which is made even better with the return of Sean Lee. The Cowboys are going to be highly motivated following a 23-0 shutout loss to the Colts on the road last Sunday. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS at home this season. |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 2 m | Show |
Current form and superior defense are two keys in projecting bowl winners. So is pedigree. Marshall has all these factors going and the spread is low enough to back the Thundering Herd. Marshall has won and covered each of its last six bowl games under Doc Holliday. Holliday is a coach you can count on. South Florida is in terrible form. The Bulls were bogus when they opened 7-0. That was proven when they finished the regular-season with five straight losses, all by double-digits. The Thundering Herd own a huge defensive advantage. They rank 31st in the country in fewest points allowed at 22 per game. South Florida ranks 92nd in points given up at 31.5. That number shoots up to 39.6 if you count just the Bulls' last five games. |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing season to say the least for the Panthers. That's what happens when you lose a lot of close games like Carolina has. Only twice all season have the 6-7 Panthers lost by more than a touchdown. This is the Panthers' Super Bowl. They draw the Saints playing in their third consecutive road game. New Orleans has averaged just 262 total yards of offense in its last three games, which would rank 31st in the league if computed for the entire season. Carolina's troubles have stemmed mainly when they are on the road. The Panthers have won 10 of their last 11 home games, including going 5-1 at home this season. |
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12-16-18 | Eagles v. Rams -9 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -103 | 129 h 1 m | Show |
Physically and mentally down, the Eagles aren't ready for the Rams. LA is in a kill mood after its worst offensive performance of the season this past Sunday night. That was in cold conditions on the road against a very strong Bears defense. The Rams have multiple weapons to take advantage of the Eagles' messy cornerback situation, which has numerous injuries and is composed of second and third-stringers. Jared Goff is back in his element playing in California. Unlike last season when the Eagles outscored the Rams, 43-35, Philadelphia doesn't have the offensive capability to hang anymore with LA. The Eagles have no ground game to fall back on and Golden Tate has been a major disappointment since joining the Eagles from the Lions failing to elevate Philly's passing attack. The Eagles defense was on the field for 93 plays in their overtime loss against the Cowboys last week. They are worn down. They couldn't ask for a more dangerous offense to face on the road than the Rams. Mentally, the Eagles aren't there either with their playoff hopes realistically dashed following the loss to Dallas. |
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12-16-18 | Titans +2.5 v. Giants | 17-0 | Win | 100 | 37 h 13 m | Show | |
The Titans are on extra rest and are the superior team. The oddsmaker set a bad line opening the Giants as a favorite. I'm late for the party, but at least I have arrived as the Titans should win this game. It's certainly not too much to ask of them. The Giants caught the oddsmaker's attention by winning four of their last five games. However, three of those wins were against the 49ers, Buccaneers and Redskins starting Mark Sanchez. Their only legitimate win came against the Bears in a letdown spot for Chicago - and they nearly blew that. The Titans give up the fourth-fewest points in the NFL. They are going to load the box keying on Saquan Barkley, who is a one-man band with Odell Beckham Jr. out another week. Eli Manning doesn't have the arm nor talent anymore to back the Titans off the line. Tennessee should have no problem running on the Giants with Derrick Henry. The Giants no longer have run-stuffing defensive tackle Damon Harrison and they lost strong safety Landon Collins to a season-ending injury. New York has yielded at least 115 yards on the ground in five of its past six games. Despite facing a number of backup quarterbacks - Sanchez, Josh Johnson, Chase Daniel and Nick Mullens - the Giants are giving up an average of nearly 27 points per game during their last 10 games. The point spread won't matter. Tennessee wins this game straight-up.
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12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings -7 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 121 h 40 m | Show |
The Dolphins are not nearly as good as their 7-6 record. They don't have an elite player on their roster. Their best player might be corernback Xavien Howard and he's hurt missing last week's game. The Vikings have a very strong home field. They have covered 69 percent of their home games under Mike Zimmer. The Dolphins are 1-10 SU, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. They have lost four away games this season by double-digits. Minnesota's defense is far superior. The Vikings also don't have to deal with a high octane offense. The Dolphins' lone outside threat is Kenyan Drake and he is under utilized. Ryan Tannehill is a limited quarterback and playing on a sore ankle. Look for the fired-up Vikings to expose the Dolphins for the fraud team that they are.
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12-15-18 | Browns +3 v. Broncos | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 105 h 44 m | Show | |
Toss out Hue Jackson and football becomes fun again for the Browns. No, the Browns are not a playoff team. But they have emerging young talent and a decent defense. All they needed to do was get rid of Jackson, one of the most incompetent head coaches in NFL history. Interim coach Gregg Williams is 3-2 since replacing Jackson. That matches Jackson's win total from the past two-plus seasons. Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb have thrived since Jackson was fired. Chubb has rushed for 100 yards in every game since Jackson's departure. Jackson was hardly using the guy. Mayfield is attacking downfield. He's thrown 11 touchdowns during the past five games. Cleveland has dropped just two of its six road games by more than a field goal. There is a good chance star rookie cornerback Denzel Ward will be able to play for the Browns here after missing last week. Denver isn't making the playoffs either. A loss to the 49ers this past Sunday took care of that. Unlike the Browns, morale is down now with the Broncos. The Broncos' secondary is hurting without cornerback Chris Harris. They just lost another cornerback, Isaac Yiadom, forcing journeyman Tramaine Brock into their starting lineup. The Broncos' passing game - not good to begin with - has taken a major nosedive with the season-ending Achilles injury to Emmanuel Sanders, their best wide receiver by far. Right now the Browns are the superior team. Taking points with them is a bonus.
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State -4 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show |
Credit to Herm Edwards for doing an excellent job with Arizona State. But the Sun Devils are not in Fresno State's class. Fresno State is holding foes to 13.7 points a game this season. That's the second-best scoring defense in the nation. Arizona State surrendered 12 more points per game than the Bulldogs. The Sun Devils will be without their best player with wide receiver N'Keal Harry deciding to skip the game in order to prepare for the NFL draft where he is expected to go in the first round. I'm not that high on ASU quarterback Manny Wilkins especially since he won't have Harry anymore. An insight into this matchup could come with common opponents. Both teams played San Diego State at home. Fresno State beat the Aztecs, 23-14, and had a 108-yard advantage, where as the Sun Devils lost 28-21 to the Aztecs and were outgained, 440-377. Each team also played UCLA. Fresno State whipped the Bruins, 38-14, on the road while outgaining them by 150 yards. ASU nipped the Bruins, 31-28, while playing at home and only outgained them by 41 yards.
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12-09-18 | Broncos v. 49ers +4.5 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a major flat spot for the Broncos after three straight wins beating the Chargers, Steelers and Bengals. It's their second consecutive road game and they just lost their best wide receiver, Emmanuel Sanders. The 49ers usually play hard every week for Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers can move the ball - averaging 393.2 yards per game during their last four games - and they give up the 12th-fewest yards in the NFL. Denver isn't good despite its recent hot streak. The Broncos were outgained by an average of 107.6 yards in their past three games.
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12-09-18 | Colts +4.5 v. Texans | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
The Texans haved won nine in a row. They are fat and happy with a bulging three-game division lead. The Colts are 6-6 and in must-win mode. The Texans were lucky to beat the Colts in overtime during the first meeting. They are going to get Indy's best effort here. Houston only nipped the Colts in the first meeting when the Colts failed to pick up a first down on fourth and four from their own 43 with 27 seconds left. The Texans took over on downs and kicked a field goal on the final play. If the Colts would have punted, like they should have, the chances are very high the game would have finished in a tie. Andrew Luck trumps DeShaun Watson and the Colts rank first in pass protection. That negates a major Houston strength, which is its pass rush. Until being shut out by the Jaguars last Sunday, the Colts were averaging 34.3 points in their last eight games. Luck can hurt the Texans secondary if given time. Sparked by rookie sensation Darius Leonard, the Colts' defense is much improved. The Texans have a poor track record as a favorite under conservative Bill O'Brien going 4-8-1 ATS when laying three or more points.
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12-09-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Bills | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
When it's dreck versus dreck give me the garbage team getting the points especially with division revenge. That would be the Jets here. Both teams are going with rookie quarterback and rebuilding for next season. But the Jets are going to be super high for this game after the Bills embarrassed them on Nov. 11 dealing them one of the ugliest defeats in franchise history, 41-10. That loss really put Todd Bowles on the hot seat. Bowles is popular with the Jets players. I believe the Jets will put forth one of their strongest - if not the strongest - effort of the season in this matchup. Talent-wise, the Bills are not any better than the Jets.
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
Bad quarterback. Decimated offensive line. Shot morale with no playoff chance after entering the season holding Super Bowl aspirations. Say hello to the 2018 Jacksonville Jaguars, the biggest underachievers in the AFC. The Jaguars are further hurt by traveling on a short week this being the Thursday game. Game manager Cody Kessler is 1-8 as an NFL starter. He's isn't going to produce many points with a beat-up offensive line and sub-par receivers. Tennessee's defense has played just below Jacksonville's ranking sixth in fewest points allowed and ninth in yards given up. So while a slight edge to Jacksonville on defense, the Titans have a much superior offense. Marcus Mariota has been playing well. He plays better against the Jaguars than any other team with a seven-game career mark of 107-for172 (62.2 percent), 1,317 yards passing and an eight-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has rushed for 290 yards and scored two touchdowns on the ground. The Titans have defeated the Jaguars in their last three meetings holding the Jaguars to an average of 10.6 points a game.
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12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | 33-30 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 6 m | Show | |
I want the Steelers going for me on national television at home after they self-destructed last week in a road loss to the Broncos despite dominating the yardage battle by having a minus four turnover ratio. Philip Rivers is having a great season, but Ben Roethlisberger trumps him when playing at home especially in December. Roethlisberger has his main weapons while Rivers is down star running back Melvin Gordon. The Steelers lead the NFL in sacks with 39. The Chargers have surrendered seven sacks in their past two games. The Chargers also have key injuries on defense down tackle Corey Liuget and linebacker Denzel Perryman. That really hurts their run defense and sets up Roethlisberger's dangerous play action. Pittsburgh has a history of winning late season big games and making the playoffs. The Chargers don't. The Chargers are hurt by poor special teams and questionable coachin |
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12-02-18 | Vikings v. Patriots -4.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
The Patriots are 5-0 at home and have yet to really play their best ball. That could happen here as Bill Belichick perceives a real challenge. Slowly but surely New England is getting healthy on offense. The Patriots got Sony Michael, their top runner, back last week along with Rob Gronkowski. This week they add to their running back depth with the return of Rex Burkhead. The Vikings' top cornerback, Xavier Rhodes, is questionable with a hamstring injury. Even if he plays, Rhodes isn't likely to be 100 percent making Josh Gordon a dangerous deep threat. Tom Brady is coming off his highest passer rating of the season. It's not a coincidence that happened with all of his weapons returning. The Vikings are well coached under Mike Zimmer. But they have not been good covering against strong opponents going 1-6 ATS versus foes with a winning mark. It's a bit of a flat spot, too, for the Vikings off a huge nationally televised Sunday night home win against their division arch rivals the Packers. The Patriots have covered 17 of the past 24 times when going against above .500 opponents.
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12-02-18 | Browns +7 v. Texans | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -140 | 36 h 42 m | Show |
Free of Hue Jackson, rookies Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb are playing their best ball. Mayfield is 36-for-46 passing for 474 yards with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ration in his last two games while Chubb has gained 337 yards from scrimmage and scored four TD's in the last two weeks. Cleveland is a dangerous foe for the fat and happy Texans, winners of eight in a row. Houston is on a short week after dispatching Tennessee at home and two games up on the Colts in the AFC South Division. The Texans aren't nearly as good as their record and are ripe for an upset. They have built their win streak versus easy competition and by winning close games. Houston won four games by a combined 10 points, two of them coming in overtime. They have lost to the Giants and only beaten the Bills by a touchdown. Bill O'Brien plays not to lose. Because of that, the Texans are very bad in a chalk role. Going back to 2016, the Texans are 3-8-1 ATS when laying a field goal or more. Houston also has failed to cover in its last seven December games. |
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12-01-18 | Stanford v. California +3.5 | 23-13 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
Stanford is being overrated by the linesmaker. This is a huge Pac-12 rivalry and California is the home team. The Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season. Both teams enter the matchup with two-game win streaks. I'm not impressed with Stanford's two victories against UCLA and Oregon State, though. The last time the Cardinal beat a team with a winning record was mid-October. Their defense has been disappointing while Cal's defense has yielded only 14.2 points per game during its last five matchups.
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo | Top | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
Northern Illinois has lost two in a row, but the Huskies are laying in the weeds. They've been pointing to this matchup, the MAC title game. Note the game is at a neutral site, Ford Field in Detroit. Buffalo has the better record and the flashier quarterback in Tyree Jackson. Northern Illinois, though, has the best defense in the MAC. Jackson is turnover prone and hasn't faced a defense this good. Jackson has a stud wideout, Anthony Johnson. But look for Northern Illinois to cause Jackson problems with its pass rush and linebackers. The situation favors Northern Illinois, too. Buffalo played last week. Northern Illinois has been idle since Nov. 20. This also is the Bulls' third straight road appearance and fourth different venue in their last four games. The Huskies nipped the Bulls, 14-13, at Buffalo last season. The combination of the superior defense and running of Tre Harbison - who has rushed for 950 yards while averaging 5.4 yards a carry - should carry the Huskies to a cover if not an outright victory.
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11-25-18 | Packers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 36 m | Show |
The Packers didn't make the playoffs last season. They aren't going to make the postseason either this season. The reasons are many: A talent shortage. Stale coaching by Mike McCarthy. Key injuries. Lack of a pass rush. Vulnerable secondary. Aaron Rodgers performing at a good rather than great level. The Vikings aren't at the elite level of the Rams and Saints. But they are coming on and clearly are a tier higher than the Packers. Green Bay is 0-5 on the road this season. The Lions, Seahawks and Redskins all whipped the Packers when they hosted them. The Packers lost to those teams by an average of 8.3 points a game. None of those three teams are as good as Minnesota. The Packers are 1-6-2 ATS the past nine times they have been underdogs. Their history under McCarthy is very bad as underdogs. They don't win games they are not expected to win. This is the third year the Vikings are playing their home games at U.S. Bank Stadium. It is a very strong home field. The Packers are 0-2 there having lost 23-10 last season and 17-14 in 2016 when Sam Bradford was Minnesota's quarterback. The Vikings were missing their two best offensive linemen, Pat Elfein and Brian O'Neill, when they met the Packers in Green Bay in Week 2. The game finished in a 29-29 tie. Vikings kicker Daniel Carlson missed three field goals, including two in overtime. Elfein and O'Neill are back for the Vikings. Carlson has been replaced by steady Dan Bailey, who has made 14 of 17 field goals for Minnesota with one of those misses caused by a bad snap. The Vikings have come on since that early season game. Their defense was elite last season and it has yielded just 263.6 yards during the past five games. That would rank No. 1 in the NFL by 37 yards if computed during the entire season. Just two games ago, the Vikings amassed 10 sacks in a 24-9 win against the Lions. Maybe because his knee still isn't 100 percent. Maybe it's because of his barely concealed ill feelings toward McCarthy. Whatever it is, Rodgers isn't having is typical season. There has been tremendous quarterback play from a number of quarterbacks - Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Dree Brees, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff. Rodgers hasn't performed at that level. Rodgers is going to face tremendous inside pressure from the Vikings' defensive line and he doesn't have quality guards to protect him. He's also down several of his receivers, including Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison and possibly Jimmy Graham, who has a broken thumb. The Packers are thin defensively especially at safety. Green Bay also is without its best defensive player, tackle Mike Daniels. Kirk Cousins has the weapons to take advantage with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Look for Dalvin Cook to have a big game, too, now that he's healthy. Green Bay's run defense really goes downhill minus Daniels.
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11-25-18 | Steelers -3 v. Broncos | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm not so sure this a flat spot that some envision here for the Steelers. Pittsburgh was flat for nearly the entire game last week on the road against the Jaguars, yet still pulled out a victory. That might be a wake-up call for the Steelers because talent-wise there is no comparison between these two teams. So I'm going to ride the Steelers at a line I'm surprised opened so low. There is no comparison in the offenses. The Steelers are one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. The Broncos are below average with a below average quarterback and an injury ravaged offensive line. Pittsburgh's defense has come on holding its past seven foes to an average of fewer than 16 points a game while leading the NFL in sacks with 37. The Steelers should dominate the Broncos' beat-up offensive line.
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11-25-18 | Jaguars -3 v. Bills | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 43 m | Show | |
As toxic and unappealing as the Jaguars are, they still are a field goal better than the Bills. Buffalo likely gets Josh Allen back, but he's no savior but just a turnover-prone rookie. The Bills have one of the worst offenses of all-time. Buffalo put up 41 points on the Jets in its last game and still ranks LAST in scoring at 13.7 points a game and second-to-last in yards. The Jaguars defense isn't lacking in talent. They have elite players and should be able to come up with takeaways against the punchless Bills, who rank last in passing yards. Buffalo has failed to break the 13-point barrier in seven of its 10 games. Blake Bortles remains a quarterback without a passing touch, but he does have the splendid Leonard Fournette to take the load off him and set up play-action. |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | 30-27 | Loss | -125 | 121 h 14 m | Show | |
I want the Panthers going for me when they are at home especially with a low line against a mediocre opponent. The Panthers have won their last 10 home games, including all five this season. They are 8-2 ATS in those 10 games. Carolina averages 35.5 points at home, which is 15.5 points more per game than they average on the road. Cam Newton has better weapons this season and is playing well. Seattle's defense is way down from past seasons and its offense is below average at nearly every position except quarterback. The Seahawks have gone back to being run-oriented. Carolina, though, ranks eighth in run defense and has tremendously athletic linebackers to stop Wilson's short passes.
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11-24-18 | Troy +10.5 v. Appalachian State | 10-21 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 19 m | Show | |
Troy can hang in with defense. The Trojans have covered in 19 of their last 26 road games and are 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 Sun Belt Conference games. This a showdown matchup to decide the East half of the Sun Belt. Troy hasn't lost in Sun Belt play this season winning all seven games. The Trojans give up only 21.2 points a game. The teams last met two seasons ago and none of the games were decided by more than four points. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 20 m | Show |
At 4-6, the Falcons are on life support. They are in must-win mode while the Saints are on cruise control. Normally the home team has a huge edge on Thursday games. But the Falcons are familiar with their division rival and this isn't a long trip. The Saints nipped the Falcons, 43-37, in overtime back in Week 3. I see the same back-and-forth type offensive fireworks in the rematch. Drew Brees is having another brilliant season, but so is Matt Ryan, who threw for five touchdowns in the first meeting. As geat as the Saints have been this season, they are 0-4 ATS the past two yers when laying nine or more points.
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -125 | 131 h 40 m | Show |
Coming off their bye, the Vikings have gotten healthier on defense and their defense is coming on ranking in the top-five during their past four games. Minnesota is close to full strength now and has Dalvin Cook back to provide a home run threat on offense, which it was lacking before. Cook's dangerous presence can mitigate the Bears' pass rush because of his value as a receiving back. Kirk Cousins rates a strong edge on Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears also are unstable at kicker with Cody Parkey missing four kicks last Sunday, including two extra points. The Vikings took care of their kicking issues by signing highly accurate and reliable Dan Bailey. |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | 7-48 | Loss | -120 | 87 h 57 m | Show | |
The Eagles can hang with the Saints. Philadelphia's losses this season have come by an average of 4.4 points. Only once in their last 31 games have the Eagles lost by more than seven points. This is a pivotal game for the Eagles, trailing the Redskins by two games in the NFC East Division. The Saints, on the other hand, are fat and happy sitting at 8-1. Drew Brees is having another outstanding season, but Carson Wentz can hang with him. Wentz is back healthy. He's thrown two or more touchdowns in his last six games. The Eagles' offense is improved with the addition of Golden Tate and their defense is better than New Orleans. The Saints rank 24th defensively in points allowed and yards given up. New Orleans also suffered a key injury last week losing offensive let tackle Terron Armstead to a shoulder injury.
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11-18-18 | Broncos v. Chargers -7 | 23-22 | Loss | -105 | 126 h 27 m | Show | |
The Chargers have been playing extremely well. They are a bit below the radar considering they are 16-5 SU, 13-8 ATS in their last 21 games. They are 7-1 in their last eight games at their temporary home at StubHub Center. Philip Rivers quietly has put together an MVP-caliber season with the third-highest passer rating in the league at 115.4 and a 21-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. One of the trademarks of the Broncos under Vance Joseph is their horrendous road record. Denver is 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS under Joseph in away games. Case Keenum has had problems on the road. He has been sacked 14 times and turned the ball over eight times in Denver's four away matchups this season.
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11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -4.5 | 23-21 | Loss | -114 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
The Raiders are introducing a new thing to the NFL, something bottom feeders in the NBA have been doing for a long time: Tanking. Oakland can get away with this because its coach, Jon Gruden, is armed with a 10-year contract and enormous power. It's actually in the best interest of the Raiders to do their best to secure the No. 1 overall draft pick and set themselves up for down the road when they move to Las Vegas to start over because they sure aren't doing anything this season. The Raiders are historically bad. How bad? They have lost five straight games by two touchdowns or more. If they lose by a two-touchdown margin to the Cardinals they will tie the longest streak for those type of losses since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. The flip side of this is the Cardinals are a play-on team against this opponent. The Cardinals' offense has improved since Byron Leftwich became the offensive coordinator a couple of weeks ago. Josh Rosen is flashing now and David Johnson looks like the stud back of two years ago with the Cardinals doing a better job of getting him in space and making sure he gets a lot of touches. The Raiders rank 30th in run defense and give up the third-most points per game in the NFL at 30.2. The Raiders can't protect Derek Carr, who has become nothing more than a dink-and-dunk passer lacking playmakers. The Cardinals rank sixth in sacks. They should dominate a porous Oakland offensive line. Chandler Jones is a premier pass rusher. The Cardinals can be counted on for a good effort. They want to deliver their home fans a strong showing. The Raiders can't even be relied upon to try these days espcially in a non-conference matchup.
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11-17-18 | Wisconsin +4 v. Purdue | 47-44 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
This has been a disappointing season for Wisconsin. But the Badgers shouldn't be a road 'dog against Purdue. Wisconsin has beaten Purdue 12 straight times, including the past seven at Purdue. The Badgers have lost to strong competition. They might not have their starting quarterback, Alex Hornibrook, back either. He's questionable with a concussion. But Wisconsin wins behind star running back Jonathan Taylor and one of the top offensive lines in the country. Taylor leads the nation in rushing with 1,548 yards. The Boilermakers peaked when they upset Ohio State. They have lost two of their past three games losing by 10 to Michigan State and by 31 to Minnesota. Their lone win during the past three games came by two points at home against Iowa. The Boilermakers may be distracted by frequent coaching rumors surrounding Jeff Brohm their head coach. Wisconsin has covered 12 of its last 16 road games.
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11-17-18 | Virginia +5 v. Georgia Tech | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
Even though this is a division game it's kind of a sandwich spot for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a huge win against Miami and are at hated in-state rival Georgia next week. Virginia is playing well winning four of its last five games. The Cavaliers had a much easier game than Georgia Tech last week dispatching Liberty, 45-24. Unlike Georgia Tech, Virginia has a balanced attack. Cavaliers QB Bryce Perkins is No. 1 in the ACC in points accounting for 26 TD's. The Yellow Jackets have a below average defense giving up 27.5 points per game. The Cavaliers know how to defend Georgia Tech's unique option offense thanks to head coach Bronco Mendenhall. His teams are 9-2 SU and ATS when facing triple-option opponents.
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11-17-18 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State +7 | Top | 6-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
Kansas State is a must-win mode if it wants to make it nine straight years of going to a bowl game. The Wildcats have a strong history of covering as a 'dog under Bill Snyder and they surely won't lack motivation here with speculation this could be Snyder's final home game. He could be retiring after 27 years of coaching. So this is going to be an emotional setting at Bill Snyder Family Memorial Stadium. Kansas State has lost three games by a combined nine points. The Wildcats have the superior rushing attack - led by Alex Barnes one the best running backs in the country - and better defense. Texas Tech has been regressing. The Red Raiders have lost three in a row. They are likely not to have injured quarterback Alan Bowman available. He's recovering from a lung injury. Kansas State has won the last three in the series, including winning 42-35 at Texas Tech last season.
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +8.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -102 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
SMU has come on be tied for first in the AAC West Conference. Mustangs QB Ben Hicks is having a nice season with 1,919 yards and 16 TD passes of which 10 have come during the past four games. The Mustangs have a deep crop of running backs, too. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and lacks the defense to cover this big of a road number. The Tigers' record has been fattened up by the weak foes they have played such as Mercer, Georgia State, South Alabama, UConn, East Carolina and Tulsa.
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan -7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
Back in Week 2, Ball State hung in against Notre Dame losing, 24-16. Since then, though, things have gone way downhill for the Cardinals. They are 2-6 since that close loss and out of conference and bowl contention. Their starting quarterback, Riley Neal, is out with a knee injury and their top running back, James Gilbert, has been demoted to second team after missing last week's game with a back injury. Ball State has gotten blasted in its last two games losing, 52-14 to Ohio and 45-13 to Toledo. The Cardinals have two games left and their coaching staff has made it known they are going to be looking at younger players. There are inexperienced players in the secondary and in the offensive line. Western Michigan needs this game to keep its MAC West Division title hopes alive and also secure a bowl bid. The Broncos buried the Cardinals, 55-3, last season. The Broncos are treating this as their most important game of the season.
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11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Now that there is film on Nick Mullens, I don't see him performing like he did last Thursday when he sparked the 49ers to an easy win against the Raiders. He is a limited player with flaws. That nationally televised game has caused this line to be inflated. The Giants are better than the Raiders and aren't tanking. This nationally televised game is a chance to give them some redemption. I expect an all out effort from the Giants. Eli Manning actually can have a good game facing such a beat-up and vulnerable secondary. The Giants have by far the two best skilled position players in Saquan Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. |
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11-11-18 | Saints v. Bengals +6 | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 42 m | Show | |
The Saints are a very good team. That's evident by them winning their last seven games. But they are not some dominant powerhouse and they are facing a very difficult situation in this matchup. Cincinnati is home and rested having just had their bye. The Saints are coming off their most impressive victory of the season, a home win against the previously unbeaten Rams. Up next for the Saints is a home game against the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. This is a huge flat spot for them against a nonconference opponent on what is an off-surface for them being outdoors. The Bengals have a good history in these instances being 9-2 ATS at home versus above .500 road foes. If you recall their two games before the Rams, the Saints were lucky to win both. They got past the Ravens when Baltimore missed an extra point that would have forced overtime and took advantage of two crucial turnovers to beat the Vikings despite being outgained by 150 yards. The Saints also were fortunte to nip the Browns on a late field goal, 21-18. The Browns could have forced overtime by making a 52-yard field goal at the end of regulation. Oh, yes, the Saints' lone loss came to Tampa Bay. The Browns and Buccaneers are a combined 5-11. Cincinnati won't have its star wideout, A.J. Green. But the Bengals have other weapons, including breakout star wide receiver Tyler Boyd. Andy Dalton is on pace for a career-high in TD passes and the Bengals entered their bye week ranked first in red zone percentage touchdowns.
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11-11-18 | Lions +7.5 v. Bears | 22-34 | Loss | -135 | 35 h 39 m | Show | |
Sitting two games behind the Bears and Vikings in the NFC North Division, the Lions desperately need to win this game. They should play with a strong sense of urgency. So the effort should be there. I like getting this many points in this division rivalry. The Lions have owned the Bears beating them nine of the last 10 times, including the past three. Chicago is much improved this season. But the Lions have the superior quarterback. That's huge. The Bears rely first on their ground attack. Detroit's ranks 30th in run defense. The Lions, however, have improved their rush defense after trading for defensive lineman Damon Harrison. If you discount a 70-yard run by Dalvin Cook, the Lions would have held the Vikings to 58 yards rushing on 22 carries for a 2.6 yard average last Sunday. This line is inflated because Matthew Stafford was sacked 10 times in the Lions' 24-9 road loss to the Vikings. That sack figure is an outlier, though, as in their previous seven games the Lions allowed just 13 sacks, an average of fewer than two per game. Line value, quarterback, history and sense of urgency are all on the Lions' side here.
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 10 m | Show |
Stop Georgia Tech on the ground and you beat the Yellow Jackets. Miami has done that in each of the last three seasons beating Georgia Tech three times in a row. The Hurricanes have a tremendous trio of three-year starting linebackers in Zach McCloud, Michael Pinckney and Shaq Quarterman. They've helped the Hurricanes rank No. 1 in the nation in tackles for losses, being No. 2 in total defense and 19th in scoring defense giving up 19.3 points per game. The last time Georgia Tech faced a defense this good was in Week 4 when it lost 49-21 to Clemson. No, Miami isn't nearly as good as Clemson. But the Hurricanes are good where it counts against this opponent, who they have owned the last three seasons. Georgia Tech has no choice but to run the ball. They are a one-dimensional option offense. Hurricanes coach Mark Richt knows Georgia Tech's offense well from his days coaching at Georgia. The key for Miami is getting good enough quarterback play. That should happen with the decision to go with N'Kosi Perry as the starter this week. He's more talented than Malik Rosier.
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11-10-18 | Michigan v. Rutgers +39.5 | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 40 h 30 m | Show | |
Michigan just got through beating Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin, all of whom were ranked teams at the time they played Michigan. The Wolverine are going to be hard-pressed to take Rutgers seriously. I envision a flat effort by the Wolverines - and I couldn't blame them. The Wolverines are 0-7 ATS the past seven times they've been on the road playing a foe with a losing home mark. Bottom line: Too many points for Michigan to lay.
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11-10-18 | Washington State -6 v. Colorado | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 38 h 29 m | Show | |
Washington State has won five in a row and has the best spread mark in the country at 8-1 ATS. Colorado is going in the opposite direction with four straight losses. The Buffaloes have lost by 11, 14, 7 and 8 points in their last four games. Their defense is wearing down giving up 83 points and 1,025 yards in the last two games. Colorado has skill position injuries. The Buffs aren't going to be able to keep up with Washington State's high-powered attack. Cougars QB Gardner Minshaw leads the nation in passing yards per game and completions. He has three outsanding wide receiving targets and a versatile running back in James Williams. Colorado can't match that.
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11-10-18 | Ohio State -3.5 v. Michigan State | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 46 h 28 m | Show | |
I certainly respect Michigan State's defense. But it is going to wear down against Ohio State's offense. There's a monster gap between Ohio State's skill position players - quarterback Dwayne Haskins, running back J.K. Dobbins and wide receivers Parris Campbell and K.J. Hill - and Michigan State's backfield personnel especially with the Spartans having ineffective Brian Lewerke at quarterback. The Buckeyes won't lack motivation either still in the national title picture. They stomped the Spartans, 48-3, last season.
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11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
Fresno State has the best defense in the Mountain West Conference. That's helped make the Bulldogs a road favorite here. But that should come with a disclaimer: The Bulldogs haven't faced a decent quarterback or offense. Now they draw the Broncos and Brett Rypien, who is on the verge of becoming the Mountain West's all-time passing yardage leader. Boise State ranks 21st in points per game and 22nd in yards per game. Fresno State hasn't won during its last nine tries at Boise State. The teams last met at Boise State in last season's Mountain West title game. The Broncos were 10-point home favorites - a swing of nearly two touchdowns from the line on this game - and defeated the Bulldogs, 17-14. Fresno State is good. But so is Boise State. The Broncos are just 5-15 ATS at home. But they haven't been a home 'dog before. And they shouldn't be here.
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 80 h 57 m | Show |
The Steelers are playing their finest ball winning and covering their last four games. Carolina is at a severe disadvantage being the visitor for this Thursday game. The Panthers have a below average passing statistics. They are vulnerable to Ben Roethlisberger, who has a strong history of playing much better at home. James Connor has more than filled in well for holdout Le'Veon Bell providing the Steelers with a balanced attack. The Panthers lack the Steelers' strong downfield passing game. Pittsburgh ranks tied for third in the AFC in sacks. Cam Newton is not an accurate passer and will be under a heavy pass rush.
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11-04-18 | Steelers +3 v. Ravens | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
These teams are heading in different directions. Pittsburgh is coming on winning its past three games, all by seven or more points. The Steelers are averaging 34 points in their last three games. James Conner has made everyone not miss Le'Veon Bell. Pittsburgh's defense has improved, too, holding foes to 18.3 points in the last three games. Baltimore, by contrast, has dropped three of its last four. Joe Flacco has regressed to where he was last season - terrible. The Ravens also have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line with both of their starting tackles out. Losing left tackle Ronnie Stanley is a huge below-the-radar injury. It means Jermaine Eluemunor will be making his first NFL start. The Steelers' pass rush has come on to rank seventh in sack ratio and second in quarterback hits. Flacco, more than most quarterbacks, gets rattled under pressure. The Steelers have a monster skill posiiton edge with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Conner. This is one of the most fierce rivalries in the NFL. The Steelers have short revenge for a home loss to the Ravens five weeks ago. The Steelers are the fresher team having had their bye just two weeks ago. Baltimore doesn't get its bye until after this game.
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11-04-18 | Falcons +2.5 v. Redskins | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
I've been looking to fade the Redskins - and this is the spot to do it. Washington has won three in a row. The Redskins don't have a good history, though, under Jay Gruden of following a win with a good performance being 4-10 ATS after winning in their previous game. The Redskins are an average team at best with a below average quarterback in Alex Smith. Washington's style is run the ball with Adrian Peterson and play stout run defense. The Falcons are not a good opponent for that style to work. Matt Ryan is having a strong season. He's riding a 13-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games. He has thrown for more than 350 yards in four of those five games. Ryan rates a huge edge on Smith, who rarely completes downfield passes. Ryan challenges secondaries. Smith doesn't. The Falcons are off a bye. They've had ample weeks to patch up their battered defense. The Redskins lack the dynamic offense to take advantage. Washington also will be without its best offensive lineman with left tackle Trent Williams out following surgery on his thumb.
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11-03-18 | Louisiana Tech +23.5 v. Mississippi State | 3-45 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 8 m | Show | |
This is your classic sandwich spot for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are coming off a huge home win against Texas A&M and have Alabama on deck next week. So the Bulldogs aren't going to be taking this non-conference matchup too serious. Mississippi State also isn't a good team to lay big points on. The Bulldogs rank 107th in passing yards. Nick Fitzgerald is more dangerous as a runner than thrower. Louisiana Tech's top defensive strength is its pass defense. So Mississippi State is going to have to grind away on the ground, which eats a lot of clock. The Bulldogs' best runner is Kylin Hill, who is questionable after missing last week's game with a leg injury. It wouldn't be surprising if Hill sat out so he would fresh for Alabama. Louisiana Tech is well-coached under Skip Holtz. Under Holtz, Louisiana has covered seven of its last nine road games as an underdog against the power-five conference teams. Tech is 8-2 ATS versus SEC foes. The latest example occurred in Week 3 when Tech hung in and covered a 19-point road spread against LSU, a team that beat Mississippi State, 19-3, just two weeks ago.
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11-03-18 | Houston -14 v. SMU | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
Houston wins because of its high-scoring offense. The Cougars have scored 40-plu points in eight straight games. They rank first in the country in total yards and No. 2 in scoring. Houston quarterback D'eriq King has had at least two passing touchdowns and one rushing TD in every game this year. The Cougars have an excellent track record on the road going 23-10-1 (70%) in their past 34 away matchups. SMU needs to play ball-control and have a balanced offense to hang with the Cougars. But the Mustangs don't have that. They are averaging 98.6 yards on the ground, which ranks 123rd. SMU is averaging fewer than 50 yards rushing in its last three games. The Mustangs are poorly-coached - 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games - and have given up eight-non defensvie touchdowns, including four pick-six interceptions off Ben Hicks.
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11-02-18 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State -13.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
Western Kentucky has frustrated Middle Tennessee State for three straight years, including defeating the Blue Raiders, 41-38, last season in triple overtime. Now the table is set for the Blue Raiders to get their revenge in a big way. The Hilltoppers are a dead team done in by the disastrous coaching of Mike Sanford. They have lost nine of their last 10 games. The Hilltoppers are not bowl eligible for the first time in eight years. Middle Tennessee State senior quarterback Brent Stockstill has led the Blue Raiders to a 16-7 record since 2016 in games he has been healthy in. Yet he's 0-3 career-wise versus Western Kentucky. Stockstill is one of the better quarterbacks in Conference USA. The Blue Raiders trail Florida International by just one game in the East Division of that conference. Their offense has a good balance to it with the emergence of running back Terelle West. Western Kentucky can't keep up averaging fewer than 20 points a game. The Hilltoppers give up nearly 30 points on defense. They've allowed 40, 37 and 38 points in their last three games. They can't match the Blue Raiders on either side of the ball. Middle Tennessee State has a good history in these type situations covering six of the last seven times at home versus foes with a losing road mark.
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -103 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
Jon Gruden is desperate for a victory and he has a chance to achieve that in this nationally televised Thursday night matchup. As bad as the Raiders have been, the 49ers have even a worse record. The 49ers also are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL. The Raiders have a huge quarterback edge with Derek Carr. This edge would be even greater if C.J. Beathard is a scratch because of a wrist injury. That would make second-year undrafted free agent Nick Mullens the 49ers' starting quarterback. Carr is coming off a four touchdown performance against the Cowboys and has regained his confidence. Usually it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team in the Thursday matchup. But it's different here because Oakland and San Francisco are just a little more than 12 miles apart. So travel isn't an issue for the visiting Raiders. It's the 49ers who are hurt the most by the short week because of their long injury list.
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10-28-18 | 49ers +1 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-18 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 40 m | Show |
There are degrees of being pathetic. The Cardinals are more pathetic than the 49ers. At least San Francisco is well-coached, plays hard all the time and doesn't have nearly the dissension and lack of confidence Arizona has. This is a huge revenge game for the 49ers. They lost to the Cardinals just three weeks ago, 28-18. The 49ers outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, but cost themselves by committing five turnovers. C.J. Beathard is one of the better backup quarterbacks. I would take him operating behind Kyle Shanahan's sharp schemes and decent receivers, including emerging star tight end George Kittle, than rookie Josh Rosen, who has a horrible offensive line and declining skill position players. It's not a fluke the Cardianls are last in yards gained per game and last in run defense. They are the worst team in the NFC.
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -8 | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 123 h 29 m | Show | |
The Browns couldn't beat the Steelers opening week despite coming up with six takeaways. Cleveland surely isn't going to beat the Steelers now when Pittsburgh is home and rested following a bye. Cleveland is tired and demoralized having played three overtime games in the last four weeks, including last Sunday in the high heat and humidity of central Florida losing on a late field goal. The Steelers has gotten into gear. They are averaging nearly 35 points during their last two games. The Browns have surrendered at least 26 points in three of their past four games and have key defensive injuries, including one to linebacker Joe Schobert. Cleveland last won at Heinz Field in 2003. The Browns have lost 24 consecutive road games. They are 4-10-1 ATS during their past 15 away matchups. The Browns remain as poorly coached as ever under Hue Jackson.
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10-28-18 | Broncos v. Chiefs -10 | 23-30 | Loss | -109 | 122 h 42 m | Show | |
You can't stop the Chiefs. You can only hope to contain them and Denver can't do that. The Chiefs offense is clicking on all cylinders behing Andy Reid's sharp designs and second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who clearly is in the argument for MVP with eye-popping statistics such as 22 touchdown passes in seven games. The Chiefs have covered every one of their seven games. I don't expect that streak to stop here. Vance Joseph is dead man walking. He can't coach. The Broncos' defense isn't as good as perceived and their offense could be making a quarterback change soon as Case Keenum hasn't come close to repeating his magical 2017 season. Kansas City's defense is improving and is tough at home surrendering an average of only 12 points during its past two games at Arrowhead Stadium. It's an added bonus if Justin Houston and Eric Berry return this week.
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
Neither the Eagles nor Jaguars have played up to expectations this season. Both are coming off surprising home losses. I trust the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles far more than the Jaguars to bounce back in this London game. Carson Wentz is rounding into shape nearing upper-tier status again. He has far better weapons with Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz than the Jaguars have especially when they remain without Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville is playing its worst ball having lost three in a row. The Jaguars defense isn't as good as it was last season. They aren't getting takeaways to set up their offense. Jacksonville's offense is a total mess because it doesn't have a quality starting quarterback. The Jaguars have produced just 28 points during their last three games. Neither turnover-prone Blake Bortles, nor weak-armed, checkdown passer Cody Kessler is the answer at quarterback. The Eagles are the much more balanced team solid on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars are held hostage by their horrendous quarterback play. They don't have a quarterback on their roster who can fix the problem.
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10-27-18 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Mississippi State | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
The Aggies were idle last week, get several key injured players back and have the top run defense in the SEC to contain Mississippi State's ground attack. If the Bulldogs can't run they are in trouble because Nick Fitzgerald has passed for fewer than 100 yards in his last three games. The Bulldogs lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage of the Aggies' vulnerable secondary. Texas A&M gets back wide receiver Kendruck Rogers and right guard Keaton Sutherland from injuries. Rogers may be the Aggies' best wideout. While Texas A&M had its bye last week, the Bulldogs were suffering a 19-3 road loss to LSU. Mississippi State is 1-3 in its last four games while averaging fewer than 10 points a game during this four-game span.
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10-27-18 | Georgia -6.5 v. Florida | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 44 h 1 m | Show |
Recall if you will last season after Auburn beat Georgia, 40-17. The Bulldogs came back from that beatdown to post four straight wins and covers to reach the national championship game. I see the Bulldogs bouncing back against Florida here. Georgia was idle last week after suffering its first loss of the season to LSU in its previous game. LSU kept Georgia in check that game. But the Bulldogs offense is too good to be held down a second consecutive game. Florida ranks 73rd in run defense. The Bulldogs have a stable of outstanding running backs headed by D'Andre Swift. Georgia can beat Florida on the ground, or through the air behind Jake Fromm if the Gators bring their safeties into the box. I don't see Florida's offense keeping up with a Bulldogs defense that gives up the 13th-fewest points per game at 16.3. The Bulldogs crushed the Gators, 42-7, last season.
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10-27-18 | North Carolina +9 v. Virginia | 21-31 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
Virginia is flying high posting upset victories against Miami and Duke during its past two games. North Carolina is 1-5. So this appears to be a letdown spot for the Cavaliers as it's difficult for a team to get up for three straight games especially when that team isn't dominant. Just don't be shocked if the Tar Heels pull the outright win. They are a very dangerous team now being healthy and having their suspended players back. North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech and Syracuse by three points apiece in its past two games with the loss to Syracuse coming in double overtime. The Tar Heels have covered six of their last seven ACC games and are 4-0 ATS in their past four visits to Virginia. I find Virginia to be overrated. The Cavaliers are being overvalued here with this large of a spread. Jordan Ellis, the Cavaliers' leading rusher with 619 yards, is dealing with an ankle injury. North Carolina has revenge for a 20-14 loss to Virginia last season. Before that, the Tar Heels defeated the Cavaliers seven consecutive times. North Carolina quarterback Nathan Elliott is coming on. He threw for a career-high 321 yards and two touchdowns against Syracuse last week. He has gone 161 passes without an interception. The Tar Heels always have been able to run the ball ranking third in the ACC in yards per carry at 5.1. There won't be a lack of points scored here. But North Carolina certainly will be able to keep up.
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
There is plenty of value here with Boston College being this big of an underdog when it should actually be favored. The facts are these: The Eagles are 4-0 at home and 5-2 overall. Their two losses have been to North Carolina State and Purdue. No shame in that especially since Purdue just upset Ohio State. Boston College gets back star running back AJ Dillon from an ankle injury. Look for the Eagles' offensive line and ground game to control the line of scrimmage against the Hurricanes. This is the best running attack Miami has seen all season. The warm-weathered Hurricanes will be playing in low 40-degree weather. They are are 1-4 in their last five road games and going up against an emotionally-charged Boston College and atmosphere. The game is being called "Red Bandanna/Service Day Game" to honor Welles Crowther, who was a former BC lacrosse player who saved the lives of several people during the 9-11 attacks before perishing. Miami is going to have to contend with this road setting while still trying to get its quarterback situation settled. Malik Rosier is going to get the start after N'Kosi Perry's poor play in the Hurricanes' last game, a 16-13 road loss to Virginia. Rosier isn't a very good passer either. He's completing just 52 percent of his throws.
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10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6 | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Look for the Patrick Mahomes scorched earth policy to continue against the Bengals. Cincinnati, ranked 29th in total defense and 28th in passing defense, can't stop Mahomes and the high-flying Kansas City offense that ranks No. 2 in the NFL in scoring at 35.8 points per game. Andy Dalton can't keep up, especially on the road. Mahomes has an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Dalton has seven interceptions. The teams met during their second preseason game, which was in Cincinnati. Mahomes played for two drives and was unstoppable. He led KC to touchdowns on both drives throwing for two touchdown passes while compiling a 127.4 passer rushing.
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10-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Jets | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 0 m | Show |
Some people are scared of road favorites in the NFL. This is a prime example of why you should not be afraid. The Vikings are vastly superior to the Jets. Minnesota started the season slow, but is starting to come on. The Vikings' defense is returning to their dominant ways. They have the pass rushers to overwhelm the Jets' mediocre offensive line and the veteran secondary that can cause rookie Sam Darnold problems. Darnold will be without his favorite receiver, too, with Quincy Enunwa out with an ankle injury. Kirk Cousins is having an excellent season, Adam Thielen may be the most reliable wide receiver in the NFL. He's the only one this season who has had 100 plus receiving yards in every game. The Vikings also got their ground game last week. It could be bolstered if Dalvin Cook is ready to return. The Vikings' offensive line is improving. It can hold their own against the Jets' defensive line. The Jets are stepping up in class after having faced the Broncos and Colts. I also give a strong checkmark to the Vikings in coaching with Mike Zimmer over Todd Bowles. |
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10-21-18 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 34 m | Show |
Jacksonville still has a top-two caliber defense. The Jaguars still have their same defensive players. They just haven't been getting the huge number of takeaways and sacks they did last season. That should start to change with this matchup. DeShaun Watson isn't having the season he had last year before he got hurt. A big reason for that is he is operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Texans can't protect Watson. He's already heavily beat-up. Watson doesn't have a run game to fall back on either. The Jaguars are going to be super-fired up returning home after embarrassing road losses to the Chiefs and Cowboys. Blake Bortles didn't play well in those games. Bortles remains highly inconsistent. He won't have to win this game, though, because the Jaguars' defense will dominate. Bortles will be able to pick his spots against a weak secondary and with an underrated receiving corps. The Texans are very poorly coached. They could be 0-6 instead of 3-3. In the last three weeks, they've beaten the Colts in overtime on a bad coaching decision by Indy, nipped the Cowboys at home in overtime and were tied 13-13 with the Bills at home until getting an interception return for a touchdown against backup Nathan Peterman with 1:23 left to pull out that game. Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games. That's a clear indication about the coaching ability of Bill O'Brien.
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10-20-18 | Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
Kentucky is going through heady times right now ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in more than 10 years in football. This has made the Wildcats overvalued in this rivalry matchup. Kentucky is at its worst in a favorite's role failing to cover the past eight times during the last two seasons. Vanderbilt can play. Just ask Notre Dame, which is ranked higher than Kentucky. The Commodores lost to the Irish, 22-17. Vanderbilt has excellent skill position players with quarterback Kyle Shurmur, running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn and wide receiver Kalija Lipscomb. I'm not a fan of Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats rely heavily on running back Benny Snell Jr. They are a one-dimensional team that the Commodores can handle.
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10-20-18 | Oklahoma -7.5 v. TCU | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
Banged-up physically and mentally, TCU isn't going to be able to stay within double digits of Oklahoma. The teams met twice last season and Oklahoma won by 18 points and 34 points, respectively. The Horned Frogs are worse this season. If it weren't for a close win against Iowa State, TCU would be 0-4 in its last four games. TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson has been plagued by turnovers. TCU has failed to break the 17-point barrier in each of its last three games. Oklahoma is primed for a strong defensive effort being idle last week after losing to Texas two weeks ago. Oklahoma has won 19 of its last 21 Big 12 road contests and is 6-0 ATS in this spot since Lincoln Riley took over. Kyler Murray can't be held in check by TCU.
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -9.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -105 | 86 h 0 m | Show |
This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are off a bad road loss to the Lions. Green Bay is frustrated. The Packers have a bye the following week so they are going to hold nothing back in front of national TV audience at home. There will be a strong sense of urgency for the Packers in this matchup, something that has been lacking from them. They need to keep pace in the competitive NFC North Division and will not come out flat. The 49ers play hard for Kyle Shanahan, but their defense has many holes and their offense is shot without Jimmy Garoppolo and multiple injuries at running back, wide receiver and in the offensive line. The Packers have a good defensive line and their secondary is much improved. C.J. Beathard doesn't have nearly the talent to keep trading points with Aaron Rodgers. |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 148 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a monster revenge spot for the Patriots. They were stunned by the Chiefs at home opening week of last season. The Patriots won't be taken by surprise this time by the Chiefs. New England has a better defense than Kansas City. The Patriots' offense also has come around with Julian Edelman back from suspension and Josh Gordon starting to make an impact. The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. New England has covered 71 percent of its last 51 home games.
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 141 h 23 m | Show | |
At 1-4, the Falcons are playing for their season. They absolutely can not take a home loss here to the lowly Buccaneers, who when last spotted were losing 48-10 to the Bears on the road. Injuries have ruined the Falcons' defense. But they still have the offense to pile up big points, especially going against a terrible Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom-two in yards and points given up per game. Matt Ryan is playing at a high level despite the Falcons' disappointing record. He has thrown nine touchdown passes in the last three weeks with no interceptions. Devonta Freeman is back healthy and rookie Calvin Ridley has emerged to be another huge receiving threat to go with Julio Jones. Jameis Winston is back at quarterback for the Bucs. Winston doesn't have a ground attack, though, and has turned the ball over more than any other NFC quarterback during the last three years.
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10-14-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bengals | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
There is a perception that the Steelers aren't very good on the road. That's not true. Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 in its eight road matchups. The Steelers are starting to come on, too, especially their defense, which has underperformed. I'm usually attracted to the better team in an underdog role, which is the case here. Ben Roethlisberger is a far superior quarterback to Andy Dalton and he has the more potent weapons. The Bengals and Dalton have been playing above their heads. Dalton still turns the ball over. He has seven interceptions and will be without his top red zone target, tight end, Tyler Eifert, and reliable backup running back Giovanni Bernard. Emerging second-year wideout John Ross may still also be out. Pittsburgh has owned the Bengals recently winning the past six times and eight of the last nine meetings. This includes four consecutive victories at Paul Brown Stadium.
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10-14-18 | Colts +2.5 v. Jets | 34-42 | Loss | -109 | 49 h 14 m | Show | |
The Colts are getting back a number of their key injured players. The Jets are in a flat spot. Andrew Luck trumps Sam Darnold and the Jets offense. That in a nutshell is why I like the underdog Colts. Indy is in must-win mode being 1-4. The Colts have been in each game, though, and actually could be 3-2 with better circumstances. The teams last met two seasons ago and Luck lit the Jets up throwing four touchdown passes in a 41-10 victory. Luck is close to being 100 percent again throwing for 829 yards and seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. The Colts are on extra rest having played last Thursday. Star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton still is likely out, but the Colts are expected to get back from injury star linebacker Darius Leonard, Anthony Walker Jr.,who is their second-best linebacker, top running back, Marlon Mack, and offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Luck could catch a big break as the Jets' secondary could be down star cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quad injury) and cornerback Buster Skrine (concussion). The Jets are in letdown territory after their impressive 34-16 dismantling of the Broncos this past Sunday. The Jets' other victory came opening week versus the Lions. The Jets then went flat the following week losing to the Dolphins, 20-12, as three-point home favorites. Some of the Jets' attention could be focused on their defensive coordinator, Kacy Rodgers, who is fighting a serious illness and may miss a second consecutive game.
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10-14-18 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Raiders | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 12 m | Show | |
Derek Carr isn't coming through for Jon Gruden and Gruden isn't coming through for the Raiders. If it wasn't for a bizarre replay reversal that took the game away from the road Browns two weeks ago, the Raiders would be winless. They have lost by eight, 16 and 20 points in three of their four defeats. Carr has the most interceptions in the NFL with eight. The Raiders have failed to break the 21-point barrier in all but one of their last 10 games. Their defense lacks speed and playmakers ranking 30th in total yards and defensive scoring while accumulating only six sacks in five games. The Seahawks, by contrast, are showing life. They nearly dealt the Rams their first loss, losing 33-31 last Sunday. The Seahawks have gotten healthier on defense and their ground attack has become revitalized averaging 180 yards rushing the past two games. Oakland has given up at least 140 yards rushing in three of its past five games. Russell Wilson gives Seattle a monster edge at quarterback. Wilson will be highly effective in play-action now that the Seahawks have their ground attack energized. Note this game is in London. That's a factor that favors the Seahawks. Seattle is 2-3 and still has playoff hopes. So this becomes a near must-win spot. The Seahawks are motivated. The Raiders aren't likely to travel well. They are demoralized and lack confidence knowing their talent is below average. This is turning into a lost season for the 1-4 Raiders. Gruden has lost much of his coaching mystique.
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10-13-18 | Wisconsin +10 v. Michigan | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Jim Harbaugh has yet to prove he can really win a big game at Michigan. Wisconsin has lost by more than seven points only once it its last 26 road/neutral site games and that was to Alabama. So I'm taking the points. The Badgers have the better offensive line and arguably the best running back in college, Jonathan Taylor. The key is Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook. He has been a steady force and actually has a strong 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception road ratio.
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10-13-18 | Baylor +14.5 v. Texas | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
Baylor has the ability to control clock and is good enough to take advantage of this flat spot to hang in against Texas. The Longhorns have won five in a row and are coming off a dramatic upset of Oklahoma last week. That's a huge rivalry game so the Longhorns' intensity figures to be down this week. They could take Baylor lightly knowing the Bears were beaten by Oklahoma, 66-33. That's been a pattern of Texas this season playing to the level of its competition. The Longhorns failed to cover a 22-point spread against Tulsa winning by only seven points and they didn't cover against Kansas State the week before meeting Oklahoma, winning 19-14 as 8 1/2-point favorites.
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10-13-18 | Pittsburgh +22 v. Notre Dame | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh has casued Notre Dame problems in the past and is in a position to do it again. The Panthers have their confidence up after ending a two-game losing streak by defeating Syracuse, 44-37, in overtime last week. The Orange nearly had beaten Clemson the week before. The Panthers have athletes. They shouldn't be outclassed especially considering the spot Notre Dame is in. The Irish are coming off emotional victories against ranked opponents Stanford and Virginia Tech. The Irish are idle next week and also facing mid-term exams. So their focus may not be all there. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has been a disappointment for Pittsburgh. However, the Panthers have two solid runners, Quadree Ollison and Darrin Hall, to help maintain ball control. The two rushed for a combined 299 yards against Syracuse. |
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10-12-18 | Arizona +13.5 v. Utah | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
Utah was impressive in knocking off Stanford on the road last week. But that victory has made the Utes overpriced in this matchup against Arizona, which has come on to win and cover three of its last four games after opening 0-2 under its new coach, Kevin Sumlin. Sumlin attempt to turn Khalil Tate into more passer than runner has drawn a lot of attention. What has been going under the radar is Arizona's defense, which is giving up 18.3 points per game during its first three Pac-12 Conference games. Utah leads the Pac-12 in total defense and is No. 2 in scoring defense. Tate has had half the season to get comfortable as a dual threat. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes, but his rushing yards are way down. The Utes, though, still have to respect his legs along with those of J.J. Taylor, who is the third-leading rusher in the Pac-12. The Wildcats are the No. 3 rushing team in the Pac-12. They can hang with Utah. The Utes have covered only once the past five times hosting Arizona.
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10-07-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
I consider Bill O'Brien a bottom-five coach. Anytime you have a coach that bad, especially in a favorite's role, the underdog is live. One of O'Brien's many faults is the way his team plays not to lose rather than win. This is reflected in the Texans failing to cover in eight of their last nine games. Their lone cover during this span was last Sunday when the Colts handed them the game by going for a fourth-and-four in overtime and failing to covert. The Texans also are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times when laying points in the regular season. Part of what makes O'Brien such a coaching underachiever is Houston has good talent. However, the Texans also have numerous flaws. DeShaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt have to play super games to cover up the Texans' porous offensive line, lack of a running game, poor tight end play and injury-ravaged secondary. I'm not expecting the Texans to have their No. 1 running back, Lamar Miller, either. The Cowboys aren't fancy. You know what they're going to do, which is feed Ezekiel Elliott, throw short, safe passes and rely on a well-coached defense to hang in. This is a proper game plan and should result in a close game if not an outright Dallas victory.
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10-07-18 | Cardinals +4.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 147 h 4 m | Show |
No, not without Jimmy Garoppolo can the 49ers lay this many points, especially given their battered condition. San Francisco is 1-11 in their last 12 games when Garoppolo hasn't been its starting quarterback. C.J. Beathard is back behind center with Garoppolo done for the season. The 49ers also are without tailback Jerick McKinnon and maybe their best offensive lineman as Joe Staley was injured this past Sunday. The Cardinals are 0-4, the lone remaining winless team in the NFL. They are desperate for a victory. The 49ers haven't defeated the Cardinals since Jim Harbaugh was their coach. Arizona has improved each week. The Cardinals lost at the gun, 20-17, to the Seahawks this past Sunday and were leading the Bears with under five minutes left two weeks ago before losing, 16-14. The Cardinals are far more competive with rookie Josh Rosen at quarterback rather than timid Sam Bradford. Rosen played a good game against the Seahawks in his first NFL start. He was 15-of-27 for 180 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He had completions to seven different receivers. His statistics would have looked better if not for five dropped passes. Rosen faces a 49ers defense that lacks edge pass rushers and has multiple injuries to their secondary. |
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers -4.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 27 m | Show | |
The Chargers don't get injured Joey Bosa back yet, but defensive lineman Corey Liuget returns from suspension. That's a big plus for the Chargers' defense. The Chargers' defense is better than it has shown having gone up against the Chiefs and Rams, the two best offenses in the NFL. Certainly the Chargers are going to put up big points on a very bad Raiders defense. Philip Rivers is having another big season with multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. LA is a top-10 scoring and yardage team. The Raiders rank 31st in scoring defense allowing nearly 31 points a game. Oakland is last in sacks and quarterback hits. Rivers is going to have plenty of time in the pocket to pick and choose. Making it worse for the Raiders is a fatigue factor. They wore down in Miami's humidity two weeks ago and last Sunday had to go overtime to beat the Browns at home. Baker Mayfield, making his NFL starting debut, picked the Raiders apart throwing for 295 yards and two touchdowns. That bodes well for Rivers. The Raiders were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns at home. They are a very bad team. Their defense has no playmakers with Khalil Mack gone. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 30-10, when they hosted them last season.
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