Miami has a upgraded offense, while Arizona is coming off a emotional last second win and on a short week of rest after playing Monday night  . NFL Underdogs vs. the money line - with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after allowing 375 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games are 8-39 since the 2015 season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.2 whcih easily qualifies on this ATS offering . Advantage Miami

 The Texans  host the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South showdown this Sunday and a game that projects to be a close game , which gives us value with taking the points.  Indianapolis against conference opponents.is a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5. Colts are 6-1 ATS L/8 as a conference of dog of 4 or more points.

Houston has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 as division home chalk. DeMeco Ryans after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games is 0-5 ATS as coach of Texans.

INDIANAPOLIS is 10-1-1 ATS at Houston since 2013.

Play on Indianapolis to cover

I know the Bengals have not performed optimally especially from a defensive perspective but Cincinnati for what ever reason has had this Eagles franchises number for a long time now. QB Joe Burrows is a game changer and Im betting his ability to thread the needle will be the difference  maker today .  

Cincinnati is 11-2 SU when coming off a road victory which was the case last time out. The Bengals have won those games by an average of 6.7 points per game.

Philadelphia in away or neutral games after playing their last game on the road are 0-6 since last season. Philadelphia versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 or more rushing yards/game are 0-6 ATS dating back last seson.

CINCINNATI is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. Philadelphia since 1994 and 11-0 ATS going back farther. 

TENNESSEE has won the last five ATS vs. Detroit

Houston 14-1 to the Under in the last 15 rematch games vs. the Colts.

No Deshauan Watson in the lineup may not be a bad thing for the Browns going forward. With RB Nick Chubb in the lineup the Browns Im betting can be competitive by using a  a grinding  ground game and enough out of QB Jamies Winston . In last weeks loss to the Bengals the Browns outyarded their opponent by more than 113 yards and must not be underestimated this week.  I know Baltimore has been red hot, but their run defense has had issues and Chubb should have a strong outing. NFL Road teams vs. the money line - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards/game, after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game have lost 22 of L/33 SU.

Play on the Browns to cover

Jacksonville is 4-0 SU/ATS off a game on London England. After a big outing last time out, look for Lawrence to cover this number. 

The Vikings have still not lost on the road this season.  But that may come to end tonight as the Vikings could easily be in a letdown state as a division home game last time out in a loss vs the Lions. Note: The Vikings have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 games after a division home tilt. Also the Vikings are over rated according to my own power rankings  having lost the stats battle  in each of its last four trips to the gridiron. Against a Rams side off a bye week their is the possibility of a sub par performance and out come for the land of lakes gridiron squad. It must also be noted that star WR Cooper Kupp will be in the lineup tonight for the home side , giving the Rams an edge.  The Rams are 7-1 L/8 SU  following their Bye week.McVay is also 6-2 straight-up and 5-2-1 against the spread on Thursday nights in his career. Look for QB Stafford and company to take advantage of a down trending Vikings secondary.  

Play on the LA Rams to cover

The Chargers are the  best rushing defense in the league,  and own a  top-five passing defense and Im betting they make the Cardinals work hard for any point production they can muster tonight. Meanwhile, the Cards are averaging just  22.2 points per game this year.Since Week 3, Arizona ranks 25th in the league in EPA per play (-0.078).  On the flipside, of those numbers, it must be noted that the  Cardinals from a defensive perspective rank  23rd in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.027) during this campaign which is not a good omen for their chances vs a run heavy Chargers attack. HC Harbaugh in his coaching career, has seen his team  victorious in 17 of 20 tilts as road chalk  of 7 or less and that includes 2-0 SU so far this season. Arizona  on the money line vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse have lost 15 of their L/16 times dating back to the 2022 season.

Chargers are 6-0-1 ATS MNF road games, Arizona is 0-4 L/4 MNF games .

Play on LA Chargers to cover 

NY J QB Brett Favre has lost a step since his Achilles heel injury, and his age has also hinders him. The Jets just do not seem cohesive. The Jets are off a haed fought loss to the Bills last time out on MNF and thats not a good omen considering NYJ are 0-13-1 ATS in games after taking on the Bills. Looking at some more  trends its important to note that the Jets are  also 0-11 SU  when coming off a Sunday night loss.  Meanwhile, on the flipside   QB Russell Wilson is expected  to start  behind center this Sunday night. The veteran  is  a  bankroll expanding 11-6-1 ATS run as a underdog recently including 4-0 ATS at home.  With that said, Im betting on a hardcore Steelers D to be the difference maker tonight.

Play on the Steelers to cover

SF has been lighting up the board of late, but they now go against a rested Chiefs side, with a top tier D. The Chiefs are allowing  just 3.8 yards per rush and 6.5 yards per pass attempt.  KC is scoring 23.1 PPG, allowing just 15.6 PPG while playing a conservative brand of football which Im betting will be the case again here this afternoon. 

Kansas City has played five games this season and four tilts  have not eclipsed the  had 47 point plateau. Dating back to the 2023,  47 or less points have been  scored in 15 of 18 games the Chiefs have played .

NFL road teams like the Chiefs  coming off their bye week are 31-12 UNDER L/43 opportunities   add to that KC is 10-3-1 Under the total in their last 13 post-bye week games and an edge for a under wager comes into play .  

Play under

Commanders lost a hard fought affair vs Baltimore last week by a , 30-23, count in will now be in a emotional letdown spot vs a side Im sure their over looking. This might be a ugly best but lets just plug are nose and take the points. 

Play on Carolina to cover

. The  Rams are averaging just  18.8 ppg  on offense this season while the  Raiders are averaging only 18.2 ppg on the current campaign. Both sides have a boatload full of key offensive injuries and should once again battle with production problems in this battle.

Rams away or neutral games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse are 5-0 UNDER dating back to the 2023 season with a combined average score of 39.2 ppg going on the score board.

NFL team like Vegas where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after 2 straight losses by 14 or more points are 37-11 UNDER since the 2015 season with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored .

NFL team like the Rams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two sub average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) are 44-15 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 41 ppg scored.

HC Sean McVay home games in October games 12-2 UNDER with a combined average of 38.6 ppg.Sean McVay home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season is a perfect 6-0 with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

Play under

Malik Nabers will be back in the Giants lineup after being on concussion protocol. His energy is contagious and makes this NYG lineup.  Im betting the market is under rating them at this time because they have outyarded each of the last four opponents. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Eagles - after 2 consecutive games where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 10-36 ATS since the 2015 season. Philadelphia is yet to really get untracked and Im betting their inconsistencies continue today. Philadelphia when playing against a team with a losing record has failed to cover 6 straight times dating back to the 2023 campaign. Nick Sirianni in away or neutral games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse is 2-14 ATS with the Eagles.

Play on NY Giants to cover

Fins QB , Tyler Huntley, has looked good by Dolphins  and  brings a 5-1 ATS career mark in road starts into this matchup and deserves respect as a underdog. Im betting on the  Dolphins superior D to be the difference maker in this tilt as the visitor in this series moves to 6-0 ATS. 

Miami after allowing 14 points or less last game is 6-0 ATS dating back to the 2022 season.

Dolphins to cover

Both tonights Thursday night combatants are off losses last week. The Saints looked particularly bad vs Baker Mayfield and company, and now look to be in disarray. Denver has played better on both sides of the ball this season, than the Saints.znd have the edge here tonight. 

NFL home teams like New Orleans in Thursday night games that  coming off a loss last time out , as they have been are 19-35-1 ATS  L/4 seasons. Meanwhile, TNF visiting  sides  coming off a home loss the prior Sunday,  have regrouped well going  24-11-1 ATS  for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

New Orleans 0-7 ATS L/7 at home. New Orleans is 21-39 ATS at home since the  2017 campaign. 

Denver on the money line versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play are 5-0 L/5 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Denver

 The Buffalo  Bills are playing their third road game in a row,  and Im sure the Bills are exhausted. Meanwhile, the Jets just fired HC Rob Saleh, and now have a  interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich. Also there will be a new offensive coordinator in  Todd Downing who will now be calling plays for the Jets. So at home with a new HC, and O  co ordinator the Jets are expected to be primed and ready to bounce back. I know the Bills are the overall superior side, but the scheduling does not favor them. Also the  Bills  have lost two straight  after opening the season on a 3-game winning steak .  The Bills have not only lost but they have been out-yarded by more than 100 more yards in three of their last four games so they are far from being in top form and vulnerable to a third straight loss. 

Underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Bills/Jets series at New York. NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers, is 6-1 ATS as a home dog. Since the  2005 season veteran quarterbacks like Rogers playing with their new teams at home are 116-68 SU. 

Buffalo in weeks 5 through 9 are 0-6 ATS L/6.

NFL Home teams like NYJ vs. the money line - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 32-4 since the 2015 season.

Play on the NY Jets to cover

This a lower total but for good reason it features the #1 and #2 scoring defenses  in the NFL.  (The Broncos are  allow ing 14.6 ppg  while LA Chargers   allow 12.5 ppg ). Both offenses have been abysmal this season, ranking 31st and 32nd respectively. Denver is off a big win last time out, but it must noted that the Broncos have gone under in 13 of their L/14 games after a win by  14  points or more.LA Chargers games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points are 8-1 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 31.3 ppg scored. Everything points to a low scoring grinding type affair.

Play under

  Tennessee Titans, according to my power rankings are being under rated by the markets at this time mostly because of a lack of offensive production . A bye week and some schemtics adjustments should be golden in this spot play situation.  Tennessee  is  a team that has held three of its four foes  to season-low yardage so far this season and if they can get things rolling on the production end will be able to make up trending strides    Meanwhile, the Colts have allowed season-high yards in its last two trips to the gridiron. Titans 7-0 ATS in games coming off a Bye week.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line like the Colts- with an excellent offense - averaging 5.7 or more yards/play, after allowing 375 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games are 9-42 SU dating back to the 1983 campaign.

Play on Tennessee to cover

Both these teams are off big offensive outputs and wins last time out, but Chicago has a recent history of coming out flat after a top tier performance. Jacksonville (1-4) became the last team in the NFL to earn a victory this season behind a career-best 371 passing yards from quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Im backing him to get the job done again. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line - in non-conference games, off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a division rival are 102-27 since the 1983 season.

Jacksonville in away or neutral games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) are a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 . Jacksonville on the money line in October games are a perfect 5-0 since last season.

Chicago in away or neutral games in non-conference games are 0-5 ATS L/5 overall.Matt Eberflus after scoring 30 points or more last game 0-6 L/6 overall.Matt Eberflus on the money line vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game has lost 10 of his L/11.

Play on the Jacksonville Jags to cover

Both teams are banged up with a boat load full of injuries on offense , and their collective flow should be curtailed this Monday night giving us an edge with a under wager. Also the defenses of these sides have been well above average and more top tier D should be expected in this tilt. 

Kansas City away or neutral games after the first month of the season are a perfect 6-0 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. Kansas City away or neutral games after playing a division game are 6-0 UNDER since the 2022 season with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored. Kansas City games in games played on a grass field are 12-3 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored.

NFL teams like New Orleans where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 37-9 UNDER since the 2015 season . New Orleans have gone under in 5 straight Monday tilts  L/3 seasons with a combined average of  31.2 ppg scored. 

Andy Reid games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points are 17-4 UNDER with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.Andy Reid home games off 2 consecutive close road wins by 7 points or less. are a perfect 5-0 UNDER with a combined average of 32.8 ppg scored.

In the last 4 years. AFC home teams have gone under the total 15 of the L/18 .  

AFC Conference teams like KC have gone under in 15 of their L/18 in the last two seasons befor a  Bye Week.

Play on the under 

 Chiefs(4-0)  are having problems scoring consistently without running back Isiah Pacheco as well as WRA   Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown. Also Mahomes, looks like he is just going through the motions as is evident by  throwing five interceptions, shows you what two consecutive Super Bowls wins will do for your motivational factor,  KC has also gottoen alot of breaks from the officials and have just been plain luck getting by opponents, but the skin of their teeth  and will have their hands full vs a .Saints team that are 2nd overall in Defense DVOA and 3rd vs. the pass  Meanwhile,  New Orleans after a couple of break downs and blow leads vs the  Eagles and Falcons, will be very motivated and primed for redemption behind the   leagues  No.1 point production offense average scoring (31.8 ppg) .Saints offense also ranks Top 7 in both Pass and Rush Offense DVOA.  e Sants are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine  vs AFC in away games  and 7-2 ATS as a non-division road pup. 

Play on the Saints to cover

The Beats are the  No. 1 ranked team  against the run so far this season  allowing just 121 rushing yards and 4.5 yards per carry per game . If this trend continues it means Carolina is going to have a hard time opening up the field for QB Dalton and the Panthers  will become more one dimensional which is not. a good omen for a less tha viable overall offense. Note: The Panthers rank 29th in the league with their ground attack.  I know the Panthers have looked better over the last couple of weeks but dont be fooled this is still a woeful bunch, and until proven otherwise, I will feel comfortable betting against them.  Panthers are 2-13 SU and 3-11-1 ATS as road dogs coming off a loss which was the case last time out.

Play on Chicago to cover

Both these teams are off wins last week.  but it must be noted that the Bengals are 11-0 SUATS  in games when both teams are coming off SUATS victories. Add to that  Joe Burrow’s 16-3 ATS record in his NFL career against teams coming off a SU/ATS win, and as a dog of a field goal or less, is 8-1-1 ATS. 

Bengals to cover

  NFL International series  from London has seen teams  like Minnesota with a .750 or better win percentage, losing 5 of 7 SUATS overall – including 0-4 SUATS since 2019 in this series. . The Vikings are 4-0,  fall into this category.  Also  this has not been a good spot for  QB Sam Darnold who is just  4-11 SUATS versus AFC East . Meanwhile, we have  Jets QB Aaron Rodgers who is in bounce back mode after losing as chalk last time out . In this kind of redemption type  situation the veteran QB is money in the bank cashing  10 of 12  ATS in the underdog role. . NY Jets in away or neutral games on the money line in October games are 5-0 ATS dating back to the 2022 season.Robert Saleh on the money line in October games is 9-4 SU , with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1.5.

Play on the NY Jets to cover

 The Falcons won last week,  despite of not t scoring a single offensive touchdown. QB Kirk Cousins has been less than consistent and because of this the Falcons are ranked  just 21st in the league in EPA per play (-0.048). On the flipside, QB Baker Mayfield has been more efficient, but in this road environment will be asked to a little bit more conservative and lean on the run game.  Both these coaches are defensive minded, and with the overall state of each side coming into this tilt an under wager looks to be a viable investment option.

The total in Tampa Bay away or neutral games in the first half of the season are a perfect 8-0 UNDER L/8 dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 33 ppg scored. Tampa Bay games after a win by 10 or more points. which was the case last time out, has seen 8 of 9 games stay under the total with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored . Tampa Bay games after a 2 game home stand are 6-0 under dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored.

Atlanta has gone under 7 straight times on Thursdays.

Play on the under

I know the Bills are in top for winning 3 straight to start their season, but the Ravens despite of being 1-2 are hard to bet against playing here at home . It must be noted that  Ravens QB . Lamar Jackson is 23-7 ATS  as a favorite of three or less points, or as an underdog and is  6-1 ATS in his last seven prime times events  and deserves respect here as home pups. Also this will be a run heavy running attack here for Baltimore who   are first in the NFL in Rush EPA per play (0.151). Going against a Bills team that ranks 27th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.021) they have an edge . Baltimore has a long history of doing well against strong sides as is evident by a  27-19  ATS record  in tilts with  teams with winning percentages of 75% or better with HC Harbaugh. Also Baltimore vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att is 6-0 ATS L/6 dating back to last season.Baltimore vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game are 7-0 SU/ATS L/7 dating back to last season. Ravens are  3-0-1 L4. in this series and 10-3-1 L14 vs AFC East. 

Play on Baltimore

Jaguar QB Trevor Lawrence, has really struggled to start this season , ranking 27th  overall with a 75.1 QB Rating.. But we all know hes a much better QB than that and will rebound . Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence against Houston’s pass defense. Lawrence has lost eight consecutive starts, with his most recent win coming in a 24-21 victory at Houston on Nov. 26It must also be noted that Texans QB  C.J. Stroud ranks 15th  overall with a 93.4 QB Rating  in what could be a sophomore jinx start to his season .So from a comparison standpoint both young guns are underperforming entering this game making this in my opinion more of a FG game than the current line would suggest. The series visitor is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS  and the Jags have covered 4 of their L/5  divisional road games. HC Doug Pederson after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half is a perfect 5-0 ATS as HC of Jacksonville. Houston is  1-6-1 L/8 at home in division games, including 0-4 ATS in the last four games. NFL  NFL teams that lose ATS  by 30 points or more   have bounced back well in their following tilt when playing as road underdogs of 3-points or more, with a  20-8-1 ATS  run in their last 29 opportunities for a 72% conversion rate for their betting backers. Also NFL road sides like the Jags that have lost their last three games SU and are taking on  a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than theyre record  are 56-29 ATS (as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006 for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

The Packers ran the ball alot last time out and Im betting they will lean on their run game again because the banged up QB Jordan Love maybe less than 100% if he plays and if a backup takes to the filed - which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Game 4 division home favorites  like the Packers  have gone UNDER  15 of the L/16 times  in the last seven years for a 94% conversion rate. 

The Vikings are 2nd in the NFL Defensive Points per Game allowed  at( 10) The Vikings have pressured opposing passers at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL this season (38.6%) while recording a sack on 11.0% of dropbacks (second highest)

.Note: The last time the Vikings went into Lambeau Field was October of last year. They easily won the game 24-10 shutting down Love and the Packer offense. It was a grinding affair, and Im expecting a repeat type lower scoring game . 

Minnesota games in the first half of the season are 9-1 UNDER with a combined average of 41 ppg scored dating back to last season.

NFL team like Minny where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 116-61 UNDER dating back to the 1983 season .

Play under

Carolinas QB Dalton had one of his best starts of career last week in a big win for the Panthers, but  this is  not a good Panthers  team and Im betting on immediate regression here this week vs a hungry and desperate  Cincinnati group that could easily go off here today in a big DD victory.  Bengals are  6-1 ATS L/7 vs  NFC away games and 4-0 SU/ATS in their last four against the NFC South.

Cincinnati versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play are 10-1 ATS L/11.

Bengals HC Zac Taylor in away or neutral games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored is a perfect 6-0 ATS.

Play on the Bengals to cover

New York took out  the Broncos 31-21 in Week 5 last season, and Im betting on a similar type combined score here this Sunday . 

The Jets QB Rodgers was in top form vs  New England last time out , completing 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns and projects to  have similar numbers in this matchup vs a Broncos D due for negative regression  . On the flipside, the Broncos  QB Bo Nix, the No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft, had 216 yards on 25-for-36 passing to go along with 47 rushing yards and a TD against Tampa Bay for his first career victory. He also projects to have a strong effort .  Note:

NFL road underdogs playing off a road pup victory  the previous week like the Broncos have gone over 16 of the L/19 times.

Despite of both sides being defensively efficient, Im betting on this tilt eclipsing the total based on QB play and offensive up-trending data. 

These teams have combined for an average of 53.5 ppg at Metlife Stadium in their L/4 meetings in this venue.

NFL team like the Jets where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 48.6 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival, in September games are 54-19 OVER L/51 seasons with a combined average of 48.2 ppg scored.

Play over 

I waited around for this line to drop as there is a great deal of money coming down on the Giants, as bettors over react to recent showings by both sides. It must be noted however, that the Cowboys enter this battle with a  9-3 SU/ATS away record  after a home tilt  when coming off a pair of SUATS losses-exact.  Also the Gmen have lost 13 of the L/14  in this series, and have failed to cover 5 straight vs the Boyz at home .Add to that  Daniel Jones owns a futile  1-13 SU record  in primetime affairs and has failed miserably vs Dallas losing  6 of his 7 lifetime starts in this series and you have a situation where the Cowboys can finally show their talents. Dallas when playing against a team with a losing record have covered 6 straight times with the average ppg diff clicking in at +28.3. Mike McCarthy in away or neutral games after a loss by 6 or less points.is a perfect 6-0 ATS with the Cowboys. Mike McCarthy away or neutral games after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game is also a perfect 7-0 ATS.

  Dallas as division favorite of two or more points, are a bankroll expanding  27-2 SU/25-4 ATS .

NFL Road favorites like Dallas of -160 to -475 vs. the money line - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-2 SU L/9 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Dallas to cover
 

Entering this game winless and frustrated Im betting we finally see the Bengals at their best this Monday night. I know the Commanders looked good last week,vs a ugly looking Giants side but this is a highly inconsistent Washington side, that could easily fall flat on their faces after their victory party. Note: The Commanders are 2-10 ATS L/12 after hosting a divison rival and 0-6 ATS after taking on  the Gmen. 

Bengals HC Taylor from Game Three out against opposition coming off a SUATS victory, has garnered  is  18-0 SU / 17-1 ATS  L/18  opportunity conversion rate. 

NFL Road teams like the Commanders vs. the money line - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, in weeks 1-3 are 4-38 L/31 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 13.5 ppg which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Cincinnati is 15-3-1 ATS in Game Three of the season, including 4-0-1 ATS with HC Taylor. 

Play on the Bengals to cover

QB Jayden Daniels is a decent looking yiung QB, but has hard problems getting the ball into end  zone . It must be noted that rookie QBS  have not been offensively prdiceint in  early-season NFL play  that has been evident by a 26 of 35 games staying  Under the total in weeks 1-3 . Im betting Danilels issues with TD proficiency continue for now against what will be a hyped uo Cincinnati group that will be looking to play a complete game. It must be noted that  Cincy is  5-2-1 Under  L/ 8  under the Monday night lights while , scoring just 17.6 PPG.  Also the under is a perfect 5-0 UNDER in Zac Taylor games against NFC East division opponents with an average of just 37 ppg scored.

 NFL team against the total - off a road loss like the Bengals , when playing on Monday night are 30-7 UNDER since 2020 with average combined score clicking in at 39.1 ppg . NFL team like Bengals where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 37-8 UNDER since 2015 with a combined average of 43 ppg scored .

Play under

KC is off a hard fought highly undeserving  victory vs the Cincinnati Bengals last time out  by a 26-25 count  thanks to late FG  will now be in a vulnerable emotional letdown spot on the road  vs a hungry Atlanta team off a victory and that are motivated  to perform in a Sunday night prime time tilt. It must be noted that KCs future HOF QB Mahomes only had a 80.6 AB rating in that game vs the Bengals and after two consecutive Super Bowls rings looks a little unmotivated despite his vast talents. His competitive juices will highly likely not be activated vs a Atlanta team that has done very little over the last few seasons. Atlanta is 7-2 SUATS at home on Sunday nights while Chefs are just 4-11 ATS in their last fifteen Sunday Night contests. Atlanta is 3-1 ATS L/4 in this series. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Andy Dalton will take over for Bryce Young at QB this week, will Im betting give the Panthers some offensive cohesiveness. Unfortunately, nothing can be done for Carolinas Swiss Cheese D, allowing 36.6 ppg .The Raiders offense is projected by me to light the Panthers secondary up like a Christmas Tree. This combination of factors bodes well for a combined score that eclipses this total. Note: NFL road underdogs of 13 or less points like the Panthers . that scored  3 or less points playing as hosts in  their previous game  have gone OVER in 11 straight opportunities dating back 7 seasons. 

Play over

My projections say the wrong team is favored here. I know Pittsburgh's D, has made them look good in the first two weeks of the season. However the Steel town crew were out gained in both tilts.  This is a Pittsburgh  team that lacks scoring consistency, and is being over rated by the market here in week 3. I know this is a season home opener for the Steelers, but they are just 1-5 SU in recent home openers and 0-5-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the visiting Chargers are off a 2-0 start- and looking good with their run game, and eventually will also look extremely good when Justin Herbert their QB gets untracked. Note: Chargers HC  Harbaugh, in non- division tilts, is 17-4-2 ATS away and 8-2-1 ATS as a dog. With the season series visitor 5-0 ATS L/5 meetings Im betting takin the points here is a very viable option. 

Play on Chargers to cover

These two teams the Jets and Pats  have  stayed under the total in their L/ 4 head to head matchups with an average combined score of 24.3 combined ppg going on the board. When considering this game takes place on a Thursday night-it must be noted that  NFL games on that night  have stayed under the total 15 of the L/17 times with a 41 point or less Totals offering from the books.  Finally these teams are both playing .500 ball this season, which sets up well for a lower scoring affair, with  a line of 44 kor less - In tilts featuring evenly matched records they  have failed to eclipse the total 13 of the L/15 times ( 44 pts or less). Ive seen nothing from positive from these offenses that will turn me off this being a lower scoring snooze feast affair. Note:, The Pats own  a Net EPA of +0.09 and NY Jets  have recorded  a Net EPA of -0.01-New England is Top 5 in the league in run frequency over the first two week of this season and on the flipside QB Aaron rodgers is still not 100% after repairing his achilles and will also be letting the run game develop around him as he gets more comfortable in the pocket.  With that said, Im betting a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the number.

New England games off a non-conference game.- have gone under 5 straight times with a combined average of 27 ppg scored.

Robert Saleh away or neutral games in September games is 5-0 UNDER with ana verage of 33.2 ppg scored.

Play under 

For much of their first game of the season vs Tennessee the Bears offense looked extremely inconsistent, and despite of winning they looked like their offensive production was a mirage. Here against a stacked Texans D, Im betting they will have issues getting scores . On the flipside, the  Texans D  [vs OPP] After SU win have gone under 8 of the L/10 times.   Texans Against limited mistake offenses averaging less than 1.5 turnovers per game have gone under in 11 of the L/14 . Meanwhile, Against decent-scoring teams like Houston averaging 24 PPG or more the Bears have gone under 11 of the L/15 games. Bears  [vs OPP] After a conference SU win are 36-21-2 UNDER. 

Chicago  in game 2 s are 1-6 O/U L/7 seasons with a combined average of  (36.4 ppg scored).  Texans have gone over in 3 of their L/4 vs the Bears with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored in those 4 games.

NFL Road teams like Chciago against the total - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. are 29-4 UNDER L/4 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

System applies to: Chicago.Play under

SF looked up for their return to the field in their opener last week, against the NY Jets and came out with a DD victory. However, Im now expecting them to be in a letdown spot this week, against a under rated Vikings team playing at home. Its a long trip out here to Minny on short rest, and they  are vulnerable. Minnesota has covered the L/6 meetings in this series while the 49ers have failed to cover 10 of their L/15 tilts  vs the  NFC North. Add to this prognosis that the  49ers  Christian McCaffrey is not expected to play and QB  Brock Purdy doesn't completely look in sync and could end up his back vs a blitz crazy Vikings defense, and we have a situation where the dog looks like a very viable bet. 

Play on Vikings to cover

Derek Carr was extremely efficient in his opening game this season with New Orleans as he posted a 142.5 QB rating while converting on 19 of 23 passes with the Saints putting 47 points on the board in a big DD win.Meanwhile QB Prescott and company are offensively  loaded and proved it in a DD road win vs Cleveland and project to have success here again today in Dallas where they home games saw a combined average of 55.2 ppg go on the board in the 2023 campaign Im betting on more offensive fireworks again in a rinse and repeat situation. NFL Game 10 or less when  both teams are off an ATS win margin of +14 or more pts have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER. Dallas L/23 games played on turf have seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. The Cowboys last 12 home games with a line of 52 or less have seen the total eclipse 11 of those times. Also All non-division underdogs  like the Saints off a victory  of 28 or more points  have seen the total go over in 12 of their L/13 opportunities dating back 12 seasons. 

Play over

Browns were not as bad as the final score of their tilt with Dallas, as their D, only allowed 265 total yards tto the Cowboys and deserve respect here in the underdog role.  Cleveland has won 10 of their L//11 SU  vs  the AFC South and 9-1 SU after hosting an NFC opponent . Also Road teams in Week 2 off a double digit loss in Week 1 are 38-23-1 ATS since 2005. On the flipside, the Jaguars are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three games against AFC  opposition and 1-8 ATS as home chalk against winless sides. After blowing a lead vs the Doplhins last time out, im not sure the Jags are in the right state of mind to be favorites. NFL Underdogs or pick - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 20-4 L/9 seasons .

Play on Browns

There was an over reaction in the market thanks to the Panthers beatdown at the hands of the Saints last week. Teams like the Panthers  that lose by 35 or more points and are  underdogs of 4 or more points  the following week are 50-18-2 ATS.

The Panthers are 8-2 ATS as a dog against the AFC West opposition. 

Take the points 

Dating back 10 seasons , teams (sides) off a Monday Night road game like the Jets that have a second straight road game  have lost 21 of those L/33 tilts.  The Titans played a strong game last time out leading 17-0 at the half  before finding a way to lose to the Bears last week by a 24-17 count, while the Jets looked completely disorientated in they're ugly loss at San Francisco vs the Niners on Monday night and are  physically wiped coming into this game on short rest , as they're D was  field for almost 39 minutes in that game. The Jets are being very over rated here while the Titans are being under rated.

Play on the Titans to cover

Im expecting this to be a hotly contested game with less offensive fireworks than the linesmkaers expect.  The lat three meetings here in South Florida between these teams has seen a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Forecast for tonight's tilt  is hot and humid with temps around 80 and humidity close to 100%  I expect this game to start to slow down a great deal as the game progresses because of the suffocating heat  and possible rain which will aid in a combined score that stays on the low side of the number.   Miami 7-2-1 Under in the last 10 and after watching them struggle to score last week vs Jacksonville look for this combined score to fall short of the offered number. 

Teams like Miami  that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under for a 65% conversion rate  in Week 2 since 2005  .

Miami has gone under in 6 of 8 division home games as favorite of 10 points or less. 

Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L6 division road games.

Play under

 SF 49ers QB Brock Purdy really struggled in the preseason, and Im betting he has issues dialing it up here tonight vs a viable Jets defense that he projects to  have problems against.  New York was ninth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed last season. On the flipside,  Aaron Rodgers should make a solid return to the NFL here as the 49ers defense was 10th in the league in EPA per play allowed last season, and could suffer more regression this season. Rodgers is 25-12-2 ATS in his career against the NFC West, and also  36-24-2 ATS in the underdog roll. 

Super Bowl losing sides like the 49ers are  5-19 ATS in Week 1 over the last 24 seasons. 

iThe 49ers have lost 5 of 8 and are just  2-6 ATS hosting AFC opposition  and 0-3 SU/ATS the last  three  Monday night non-division tilts.

SF has failed to cover 17 of their L/26 at home as 7 point fav or less.

Play NY Jets to cover

The Commanders are a short road underdog , and despite of having a rookie QB at the helm of the offense  are a viable bet here in week 1. The Bucs were a play off team last season, but according to my rankings were lucky to get into the post season, and should be faded this season. The linesmakers agree with me and have lowered their win season number to 7.5.  To many negatives with the Bucs making the Commanders our side. Note: Week 1 road pups like the Commanders are 46-29 ATS for a 61% conversion rate with a 19% ROI since 2016. Week 1 dogs like the Commanders that did not make  the playoffs the previous year are 54-39 ATS with a 12% ROI since 2016 campaign. 

Play on the Commanders to cover

Rookie QB Jayden Daniels starts today vs the Commanders and Im betting it will take time for him to acclimate to the NFL game. But Im also betting on Tampa Bay having issues moving the ball and for their production to be muted. Last season TB saw an average of 34.7 ppg scored on their own home field and Im projecting another combined score in that range here today. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home. :Dating back  more than two seasons , NFC South Division sides like Tampa Bay when going against a    NFC East Division side like Washington have gone UNDER in 15 of 17 matchups. 

Play under

Broncos rookie  QB Bo Nix Im betting takes time to acclimate to the NFL game, and struggles here out of the gate with downfield consistency which will directly affect this combined score. 

These two teams have gone UNDER in the last three matchups , with an average of only 39.7 combined PPG going on the scoreboard.

The Broncos have recorded 5 straight unders in the  L/5 seasons in game 1 , with an average of only 35.2 combined PPG going on the scoreboard. 

The Seahawks have gone  UNDER  in their L/3  openers with a combined    average of 40 combined ppg going on the scoreboard.

Also non division  matchup  in the first game of the season. have gone under 26 of the L/35 times dating back 11 seasons. 

Denver is 91-57 UNDER the total since 2015 for a 62% conversion rate for low bettors.

Play under

This line has been beat down since early week action,  and Im  agreeing with the line move and the smart money here in this spot play with Carolina.  Note:Week 1 road underdogs  are a profitable  46-29 ATS for. a 61% conversion rate for their backers  with a 19% ROI since 2016. Week 1 divisional pups  are even better bets going  30-14 ATS for a 68% conversion rate with a 31% ROI since 2016. I know the Panthers are being looked at cellar dwellers, but the Saints may not be that much better this season. NFL Home favorites like the Saints- poor defense from last season - allowed 5.4 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 65 -115 ATS for a go against (64%) conversion rate for bettors   (+43.5 unit, ROI of 22.0%) 

Road underdogs in Week one NFL action  that did not  make the playoffs are 57-31-2 ATS for a 65% conversion rate since 2011. Division underdogs in Week one  are 53-26-1 ATS for a 67% conversion rate  since 2010. 

Play on the Panthers to cover

There is just to much hype here with the Bears, and their starting QB Caleb Williams debut . The young man under center is the  19th first overall pick  to start in the NFL and In my opinion  is being over rated at the early juncture of his career. It must be noted that the previous 18 overall first round picks  lost 15 of 18 times  SU and were 5-12-1 ATS for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. With the Titans D, getting upgraded this season with 6 new starters added they could be a force to reckon with and Williams may find the sledding tough. I also expect QB Will Levis to be throwing big punches downfield with alot more accuracy this season as he becomes accustomed to starting in the NFL. This kid can sling it and should be a dangerous weapon against opposing secondaries. 

Play on the Titans to cover

With QB Kyle Murray and star side kicks  Trey McBride, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr.  now healthy and ready to start for the Cards Im betting on them showing improvement this season, vs what I now believe to be a over rated version of the Buffalo Bills who had some key departures on offense in the off season  WRs (  Stefon Diggs , Gabe Davis ) . Also expecting regression from QB Josh Allen, with some key future bets on him. Needless to say Im also betting we have value taking a 7 points in this spot play.

NFL opening week  1 road teams like the Cardinals  that won between 4-6 games in their  previous season   are 52-21-5 ATS fior a  71% conversion rate since 2004  . 

Play on the Cardinals to cover

The Falcons bring in  new head coach in Raheem Morris and a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins . the veteran QB Cousins is coming off a achilles injury , but his experience and a top tier group of offensive players around him make this Atlanta side very dangerous. Also expecting Morris to shore up this D.
Meanwhile on the flipside, the offense of the Steelers almost certainly looks like a dud, withRussell Wilson and Justin Fields under center. I know the Steelers defense keep them in games, but exhaustion from being on the field so much is detrimental to say the least in their ability to hold teams off late in games.  

Play on the Falcons to cover 

The Cards enters this game  having gone under in 16 of their L/20   and 9 of their L/10 when playing on the road versus  Eastern Division opponents . Meanwhile the home side  Bills have gone  under in 9 of their L/11 season openers  In their last including 3 straight openers with a  a combined  average of  39.3 ppg scored. I know QB Kyle Murray and QB Josh Allen gets the over juices flowing with bettors but Im projecting on a lower scoring affair here out of the gate for both sides. Note: Non conference tilts during the first month of the season have failed to eclipse the total in 16 of the 18 games dating back 3 seasons.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games at home.The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road.

Play under 

There is alot of hype around the Texans this season, but it must be noted that they are   1-8 SU in its last nine road openers, including 0-6 in the last six . They may get better as the season progresses but today my projections estimate a possible upset by the under rated home dog Indianapolis  and more importantly a cover. 

Divisional home underdogs  like the Colts are 18-9-2 SU and 23-6 ATS  for a 79% conversion rate in Week 1 since 2009 for a 56% ROI. 

Play on the Colts to cover 

We have a QB duel ready to manifest itself this week in Brazil, as Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts go head to head in a Friday night Football game.  My projections estimate the Eagles will score 28 or more points while the Packers score 23 or more giving us a FG edge on this total making an over bet a viable option. 

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road. The Packers are 5-0 OVER vs NFC East L2 seasons with a combined average of  54.2 ppg scored. 

Eagles are 4-1 OVER in  Game 1 of the season.

Play over

Im betting that the KC Chiefs d, continues to be their catalyst going forward even though the offense has been upgraded in the off season. Meanwhile, Ravens QB Jackson is still not consistent enough with his passing game, and his legs and the Ravesn running back core will remain their modus operandi which gives credence to a grinding game that stays on the low side of the number. 

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road.

 Primetime games are 160-107  UNDER  with a 15% ROI since 2019 for a 60% conversion rate  .

Play under

SF barley got by both their opponents in the play offs, and despite of the vast array of talent have looked vulnerable of late especially on D, which is not a good omen going against the likes of super star QB Mahomes and company. ( Mahomes is 13-1 ATS L/13 as an underdog in his career )  Also the Chiefs D, has the stopping power to slow down the mighty 49ers offense, and here in the NFL championship game as the old adage goes Defense wins championships. We all know how good SF is behind RB Christian Macaffery but it must be noted that  KANSAS CITY is 10-1 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 7-3 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992. 

Play on KC to cover-Play as low as a pickem for Chiefs 

.My projections for this Super Bowl game total come in at the low to mid 50s. Im estimating both teams eclipse the 24 point plateau. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 60.6 ppg. KANSAS CITY is 9-2 OVER in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored.

Both these teams have solid defenses but both sides can make great defenses look average and thats what Im betting on in this big time tilt.

Shanahan is 9-2 OVER off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the board.

Reid is 10-1 OVER  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 63.3 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 11-3 OVER )in road games vs. sub average passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.

Play over

SF looked rusty after their lay off vs Green Bay last week, but are by far the superior side here this week according to projections on both sides of the ball. The Lions were great at home this season but no matter where they played their D was inconsistent, especially on the road where they allowed an average of 24.7 ppg . After watching them barely get by the Buccaneers last week, its obvious to me they are in over their heads this week. Hey I love the way the Lions played this season, and how far they have come, but like I said Im betting disappointment awaits them in SF this Sunday. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 23-9 ATS   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 9-0 straight up against DETROIT L/9 at home. 

DETROIT is 9-22 ATS  L/31 in road games against NFC West division opponents. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover

 Chiefs D, got them into the play offs and after looking dormant for a long time now look to be in top form which is not a good thing for any of their opponents. I know the Baltimore D is top notch but the way Mahomes looked this past week, and how the running game was also in sync it will be hard to bet against him. Also something that is always troubling to me is a team like the Ravens who played all out football all season, without any really struggles. Are they do for a down game? Its not uncommon for teams like this to hit a wall at some point. Whether that is the case or not Im still backing the Chiefs super star QB and probably the best coach in the NFL . Note: HC Reid is 13-4 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY. Reids L/26 as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of KANSAS CITY with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1.

Reid is 22-9 ATS  as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover

Mahomes and company are finally clicking and looking smooth on offense, and Lamar Jackson and his offensive unit have been smooth and hard to stop all season long. I know both these Ds, are staunch, but in the end it will be QB play and offenses that make the difference here today. Reid  in his L/18 road games where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg scored. Harbaugh in his L/70 games  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE has seen a combined average of 46.6 ppg.

My own projections make this total closer to the 47 to 48 point threshold giving us a one possession edge on the number. 

KANSAS CITY is 8-1 OVER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 53.9 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (14-18 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games 36-12 OVER dating back to the 1983 season 

Five of the last six games in this series have eclipsed the total. 

Play over

The Bills and Chiefs battled in a 23-20 decision by the visitors on Dec 10/2023 of this season in Kansas City. Alot of things went wrong for the Chiefs in that game, and some questionable calls by the officials were the icing on the cake . HC Reid and company now have revenge on board, and at this time of year, Ds trump offenses. With that said, entering this game the  Chiefs Defense is operating at high level , allowing an average 15.5 ppg in their L/6 overall and Im betting will be the difference maker in a headline game that has the pundits  focused on the QB matchup of  Allen and Mahomes. 

Reid is 10-1 ATS  in road games revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent as the coach of KANSAS CITY.KANSAS CITY is 21-8 ATS  in road games revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent   . Reid is 21-9 ATS  as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 9 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

 The Buccaneers knocked off the Philadelphia Eagles in convincing fashion on Monday night to advance to the 2nd round and deserve respect here in the underdog role. I know  Detroit took out the Bucs in  Week 6 of this season, by a , 20-6 count but it must be noted that TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points over the last 2 seasons. The way TB QB Baker Mayfield’s played in   their  Wild Card win sets a  positive momentum driver for the Buccaneers and Im betting he goes toe to toe with Lions QB Goff and we get the cover.

TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS in road games this season with 7 of those  covers coming as dogs. TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS  in road games against conference opponents this season.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 19-51 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

The Packers pulled off a huge upset last time out vs Dallas but. now Rookie QB Love and company will go against a well rested SF 49ers side that will be fully ready to make sure the same fate does not hold true for them this week. Note: NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 6-25 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.

SAN FRANCISCO is 19-7 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff +12.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering.SAN FRANCISCO is 16-5 ATS vs. struggling  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.5.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

I know rookie QB CJ Stroud has been explosive offensively this season , and last week highlighted that in a 45 point out put  win vs Cleveland. However, I now expect regression from the young QB as he  goes against a well rested staunch ball hawking Baltimore D, that has allowed an average of 16.5 ppg this season. On the flip-side, I expect the Ravens offense to to look to ground down the Texans with their run game behind the legs of QB LaMar Jackson and their solid rush attack. These teams met in Week 1 and Baltimore won 25-9 and Im expecting similar  points output. 

HOUSTON is 13-4 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg. HOUSTON is 15-3 UNDER after a win by 21 or more points since 1992 with a combined average 40.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34 ppg scored. 

The Houston Texans have only hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 21 games (-8.40 Units / -36% ROI)

BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER in home games in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 32.6 ppg scored. Also each of the Ravens past 10 games played in January at home have gone under the points totals.

Play on the UNDER

Texas rookie QB  CJ Stroud Im betting will finally have his hands full in the play off game vs a well rested   No. 1 seed. The kid is great, but this is just to huge a step up in class here for him. Baltimore won the first meeting this season against Stroud in company by a 25-9 count  and a repeat performance looks to be in cards here according to my projections. Baltimore has won 7 straight meetings in this series  at home.  BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4. 

Play on Baltimore to cover

My projections estimate a a score in the high 30s here today giving us at least a FG advantage on this offered number from the books.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home. 

TAMPA BAY is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. TAMPA BAY is 18-7 UNDER   against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36 ppg scored. TAMPA BAY is 23-12 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg going on the board. Bowles in his L/6  home games off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of TAMPA BAY has seen a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 21 games (-6.30 Units / -27% ROI)

The Philadelphia Eagles have only hit the Game Total Over in 1 of their last 8 away games (-6.70 Units / -76% ROI) 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a favorite, when playing on Monday night are 24-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 40.2 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

Philadelphia's QB Hurts in his L/4 post season games has just  4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and an 84.7 passer rating and recently he has looked atrocious under center with a 82.7 passer rating. Meanwhile, on the flip-side , Tampa Bays QB Baker Mayfield ,  while not terrific  has been clutch in key situations. I believe the current show down favors Mayfield against a Eagles side that has looked consistently worse and has struggled more and more as this season has progressed. 

I know the Eagles beat the Bucs earlier this season but it must be noted that  NFL home pups  in the Wild Card Round  playing with same-season revenge are 9-1-1 ATS L/11. Wild card underdogs playing as hosts are 14-3 1 ATS L/17 overall. 

PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, when playing on Monday night are 8-34 L/31 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLHome teams (TAMPA BAY) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record in the second half of the seasons are 28-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover

Bills coach Sean McDermott makes alot of bad decisions in key spots and does not get alot of respect from many NFL pundits. Josh Allan is a top tier QB , but he has been less than explosive this season, and also has a penchant for bad decisions. Meanwhile, HC Mike Tomlin is probably playing for his job and Im betting we see a top tier version of him and his team here . Take the points.

BUFFALO is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing  4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 47-27 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. Tomlin is 23-13 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 53-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover

The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI) and enter this game with momentum and should not be underestimated in their ability to pull off the SU upset vs a Lions side that has been suspect defensively at times this season. 

McVay is 29-17 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 13-5 ATS   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season as the coach of LA RAMS. Note: Detroit  has not faced a WR duo like this.  Kupp has the second-most receiving yards ever in a season with 1,947 back in 2021, 17 yards behind Lions Hall of Fame wide receiver Calvin Johnson and Nacua, who broke two records for rookie receivers in 2023. Detroits suspect secondary will be the negative diff maker in this tilt. 

NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams 

An inexperienced QB at the helm of the Packers offense (Love)  makes them vulnerable in this road  play off game vs a seasoned Cowboys QB  Dak Prescott  . Cowboys HC McCarthy is 66-37 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in all games he has coached since 1992.

DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  in home games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons

NFL Underdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) after 8+ games, after a game where they forced no turnovers are 4-43 L/31 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with a average ppg diff of -10.5 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 4-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors with a average ppg diff of -9.4. 

Play on Dallas to cover

The Dolphins were beaten up on by both  Baltimore and Buffalo over their final 2 games and enter this game with a lack of momentum. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have achieved a decent season, thanks to a solid D, instead of what you might think would be their stud QB Mahomes. In a big play off game like this Im betting the Chiefs D, and clutch QB play in a spot light affair will be the difference maker. In other words the Chiefs play off experience will be an important factor as well. Also one last thing the game time temps of this affair are expecting to be in the single digits which does not bode well for a side use to playing football in warmer temps.MIAMI is 0-6 ATS   in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 0-7 ATS   after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS   versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 15-4 ATS   versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

Mahomes is 11-3 SU in the postseason. He has led the Chiefs at least to the AFC title game five years in a row, and appeared  in the Super Bowl three times, and won it twice. He has 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 14 post season tilts. rinse and repeat. 

Play on Chiefs to cover

The Browns after losing QB Deshaun Watson and running back Nick Chubb have now transitioned to a more wide open type of offensive  side behind Joe Flacco.  who has accumulated 1,616 yards passing, 13 TDs and eight picks in 5 games. Note: CLEVELAND is 6-0 OVER   in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 53.3 ppg scored. Cleveland has also gone over in all 8 of its road games this season with a combined average score of 54 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile, the Texans behind QB Stroud have a man under center that has thrown for the  third-most yards  by a NFL rookie (4,108) while connecting for 23 touchdown passes against just five interceptions.  Im betting he does enough damage today to help us get this over bet into the plus side of our bankrolls. Cleveland has allowed an average 29.6 ppg on the road this season.

When these teams played in December the combined for a 58 points. 

Play over 

The Chicago Bears come into this game having won  four of its last five games, with the only l defeat coming by 3 points. I know the Green Bay Packers desperately need a win here to get a wild card spot in the post season,  QB Justin Fields is finally starting to look like a top tier NFL QB and will be  primed to make sure the Bears  dont just lie down and play dead for the Packers.    In his L/9 trips to the gridiron  he has passed for  1,838 yards, 13 TDs, and  uses his legs proficiently rushing  521 rushing yards, This game looks much closer to a pickem according to my projections. Spoiler alert in play here. Oh one last thing I know Green Bay has owned the Bears in the recent past but that was with Aaron Rodgers under center. 

GREEN BAY is 0-6 ATS   after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season this season.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - with a sub par passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 61-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover

The SF 49ers are expected to rest  their key starters here today giving the Rams a rare advantage .  The Rams are running hot having  three straight and six of its past seven games. Considering the The Rams are 9-0 ATS as a division road pup it is not a hard decision to take the points here today. The Rams also have the added motivation of revenge for a loss earlier this season to the 49ers- Note: McVay is 7-0 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent as the coach of LA RAMS. Also the Niners are off a  DD win vs the Washington last week by a 27-10 count which is not necessarily good omen as Shanahan is 1-8 ATS  ) in home games off a double digit road win as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.

NFLHome teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 28-61 L/10 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Blaine Gabbert starts for the Chiefs today. The  last time he started was in 2018  season for the Tennessee Titans. KC cannot do any better than where they are entering the play offs and are not really interested opponents for the Chargers today. There will plenty of Chargers hopefuls that will be primed to play this game considering the Chargers will be over hauled in the off season. Advantage Chargers. KANSAS CITY KC is 0-6 ATS   in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 1-10 ATS   in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover

The L/3 meetings in this series between Seahawks and the Cards have seen a combined average 63.6 combined PPG.

ARIZONA has gone OVER  in all 7 of their home games with a combined average of - 55.3 PPG scored. ARIZONA is 11-3 OVER   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. Arizona has gone over three straight games with a combined average of 61 ppg scored. 

Meanwhile, Seattle  allowed a sub par  Pittsburgh offense to put 30 points on the board  and this week QB Murray and company should come close to duplicating that out put in a game that Im betting goes over the total. 

The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle's last 19 games when playing on the road against Arizona.

Play over

After having been robbed in the previous game because of suspect officiating the Detroit Lions are in a nasty mood and ready to take their frustrations out this week vs the visiting Minnesota Vikings The Lions  own a 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 record against Vikings and here at home have a been a dominant side, winning five of seven games while scoring 30.6 ppg. Advantage Motown.

DETROIT is 11-1 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.Campbell is 9-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of DETROIT.

Play on the Lions to cover

This is a good opportunity here for a over bet at this time of the year in a indoor stadium.  both these teams are in the play off picture and Im betting on some aggressive football today. When the colts played the Texans earlier this season the game easily eclipsed the number, and a rinse and repeat situation seems imminent. The Colts have gone over in 7 of 8 home games this season with a combined average of 52.3 ppg scored. Last week the Texans only allowed 3 points to a pedestrian Tennessee offense, but it must be noted that NFL away sides  have gone  over 14 of the L/16  times when off a division home victory where they allowed  3 or less points , when the Total is  48 or less points like this game presently is. Also INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 OVER   vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scoredI. INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 OVER   vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 52.5 ppg scored.

Play over

The Ravens enter in this game expected to rest alot of players and the Steelers are in desperation mode as they need to win this game for any chance they have to get into the play offs, and some luck. The Ravens are a deep team and must not underestimated in their abilities to compete here even with some of their key starters on the side lines. It must be  noted that 17 of the previous 31 games in this series have been decided by a field go or less and 24 of those games by one score or less. It must also be noted that the Ravens are  13-1-1 ATS as a home pup in this series when the Steelers own an above .500 record.  BALTIMORE is also 11-2 ATS   as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

 PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFLFavorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 23-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ravens to cover

Going over in a indoor game at this time year is alot more optimal a bet than an under in a out doors game. With this game going in a dome tonight, Im betting on alot more offensive fireworks than the lines-makers might expect. Both sides recently have been involved in higher scoring affairs, with the Packers going over in 5 straight games, combing for 52 ppg while Minnesota has gone over in two straight with a combined average of 52.5 ppg scored. I know this is essentially a play off elimination game with loser not going to the post season, but instead of a chess match these sides are more suited to playing an aggressive take no prisoners type of affair which translates into a higher scoring game. 

GREEN BAY is 22-4 OVER in road games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 53.7 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER  after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 48 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 51.2 ppg scored ( GB beat Carolina 33-10 last week)

MINNESOTA is 17-5 OVER   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored. MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored.MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.2 ppg scored. ( Vikings lost to Lions last week 30-24)

 NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in the second half of the season are 42-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over 

Las Vegas is off a big win last time out at KC and are 5--1-1 ATS under new interim HC Antonio Pierce . With momentum on their sides going against a Colts side, that is just 1-6 ATS hosting AFC West opposition taking points here with the reborn Raiders looks very much to be. viable betting option. It must also be noted that the visitor in this series is 5-0 ATS L/5 and  Raiders’ interim head coach's  when coming off a victory the last three seasons, are  5-1 ATS as a pups, and 3-0 ATS against opposition like the Colts  coming off a SUATS defeat.

LAS VEGAS is 7-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. (Beat KC last week 20-14)

INDIANAPOLIS is 16-31 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LAS VEGAS) - with a terrible passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 36-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Las Vegas to cover

 I know the Bucs won last time out as hosts, but that has been a recipe for disaster for their betting backers as they are  0-5-1 ATS at home off a home game. I know QB Baker Mayfield has looked great for the Bucs, but today he goes against a desperate Saints side that needs wins to have the possibility of making the pay offs. Today revenge and desperation trump the Bucs situational algorithms. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent and are 5-0 ATS when they have triple revenge on board. (Saints have lost last three to TB including a game this season)

NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS L/15  in road games vs. struggling  passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games  .

NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 5-25 ATS L/30 seasons for. go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

Baltimore is off a huge DD road win vs the SF 49ers last time out and will be in natural letdown spot here this Sunday. Note: NFL team (BALTIMORE) - off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more are 13-38 ATS L/10 seasons in their followup tilt. Also BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after a win by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and top gun QB Lamar Jackson is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite when coming off a straight up underdog victory. 

Meanwhile, Miami is off a ugly 22-20 win vs Dallas last time out and continue to uptrend in my power rankings. NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 97-49 ATS L/30 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

The Fins have also played teams like the Ravens tough recently going  6-0 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Miami has covered their L/2 vs the Ravens including one here in Maryland and get my backing to cover this week in a key spot play. 

Play on Miami to cover

Dallas' offense has looked a little inconsistent the past two games as  Dak Prescott was limited to 134 passing yards by the Bills , but is more than capable of a bounce back effort here at home.In the team's home games, Prescott has completed 74 % of his passing attempts with 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Rinse and repeat on todays agenda vs visiting Motown. 

Dallas is 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS at home in this last 15 games overall , including a 5-0 ATS  when coming off a loss and are in bounce back mode. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Dallas also matches up well vs a explosive team like the Lions, going   7-0 ATS ( in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons 

Play on Cowboys to cover

We two very explosive offenses ready to go head tonight in San Francisco as the Ravens visit the 49ers in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair. My projections  estimate both sides will put up 21 plus points. Note:

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 64.3 ppg scored.BALTIMORE is 16-3 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.4 ppg scored in those tilts. San Francisco  popped 45 points on the score board last week  in their road victory vs the Cards  - which brings in to play this Top tier trend- NFL home teams who scored 45 or more points in an away game  the previous week have gone over 9 straight times. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 OVER  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 48.4 ppg scored.

Harbaugh is 18-9 OVER  as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 47.1 ppg scored.

NFC home chalk  of 7 points or less like the 49ers on Mondays  have gone OVER  9 of the L/10 times dating back 9 seasons  vs  AFC opposition like the Ravens. 

Play over

Philadelphia  before their current 3 games losing streak had won 24 of 28 games . Despite of the negatives of their current skein this is still a proud side with enough top tier talent for a conclusive bounce back effort. I know the Giants had won 3 straight before getting lambasted by DDs last week at New Orleans , but this is a side that has been out yarded in 6 straight games and just don't have the wheels to compete here vs a frustrated and redemption minded side. Its not often I lay this much lumber, but that what Im recommending we do this Monday. 

Super Bowl losing sides from the previous season  like the Eagles are  9-1 SU L/10 opportunities   when playing off three consecutive  defeats, including 3-0 SUATS at home by an average ppg diff of 14 ppg. 

NFL team (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season is 43-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Eagles to cover

Kyler Murray is set to make his sixth start since returning from injury.The QB   has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 1,075 yards, four touchdowns and four interception while rushing  for 155 yards and three scores and Im betting he will be the difference maker vs a Bears side he matches up well against. 

ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.Arizona 9-2 ATS in their last eleven non-division tilts and 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series.

CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. 

CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS  after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 2 seasons.

Chicago  1-5 ATS L/6 as short non-division home favorite  of 6 or less points.

Play on the Arizona Cards to cover

Seattle is not playing well, despite of finding a way to win last time out, coming from behind to beat a tired Philadelphia Eagles side  20-17 count. After 4 straight exhausting games against the 49ers twice and the Cowboys and the Eagles last time out, Im betting the Seahawks dont have alot left in the tank.  It must also be noted that the Seahawks are  0-5 SU in away tilts  this season since its Bye Week. With  Tennessee owning a 6-1 ATS record in this series  and the fact that they are 4-0 SUATS this season   off a loss the Titans look like viable underdogs. 

NFL Road teams (SEATTLE) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 22-53 ATS L/30 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover

CLEVELAND is 6-0 OVER in road games this season with a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored. This Browns  team seems to play alot more wide open on the road, and are transitioning to pass first attack with Joe Flacco under center.  Today with talented  Texas QB Stroud back in the mix Im betting they will have to open up their offense, as Im betting Stroud and company do some offensive damage. Stefanski is 8-1 OVER  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of CLEVELAND.

Play over

both these sides to inspire bets or bettors, but home filed advantage Im betting will be the difference maker here today NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after allowing 25 points or more in 5 straight games are 1-26 L/10 seasons for a go against 96% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Jets ML

After two top tier victories in a row vs KC and Dallas, Im betting on the Bills to be in a letdown spot here in Southern California tonight vs a Chargers side   that is a  perfect 5-0 SU at home in this series and a  5-0 ATS in its last five games as a double-digit underdog . It must be noted that the Bills are 0-6 ATS L/5 as DD favs. I know the Bills need wins for a play off admission but a victory does not mean things will go all that easily , especially against a side that looks to be running the ball this week alot because their starting star QB Hebert in out. Note: The Bills rush D, is kind of wonky as is evident by allowing 4.6 ypc. Advantage Chargers 

NFL Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (LA CHARGERS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 30-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Chargers to cover

Pittsburgh QB  Rudolph, has  gone  5-4-1 SU and 5-3-2 ATS as a starter in his NFL career but has , a 2-0 SU record vs the Bengals. . HC Tomlin has never a had losing NFL season and he is 22-9 when he brings his team in with a .500 record and are  11-4 SU as a host   including 4-0 SUATS as a pup.  Its not easy going with a Steelers team that has scored an average of just 13 points in their L/5 games, but I feel confident we have a top tier  spot position to bet into as the Steelers really need a victory here to catch the possibility of a play off spot.  I like the Steelers chances of having the favor of the  God of Fortune  on their sides here in Steel Town this Saturday. 

PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. Steelers are 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 at home off a 3 game losing run! Steelers are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 Saturday home games.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers

 Rams are currently sitting on the  No. 7 playoff seeding spot, and edging out the Saints, so this is an all important game thats every bit as important as a playoff game. I know the Saints looked good last time out, but  they have  long history of inconsistent efforts after a win as is evident by  Allens  4-15 ATS record   after 1 or more consecutive wins in all games he has coached since 1992 and his .1-7-1 ATS mark  coming off a double-digit victory. NEW ORLEANS is also  1-9 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.

Meanwhile the Rams have played their best ball late in the season recently as they are 10-1 ATS in December games over the last 3 seasons. Considering the home side in this series is a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS Im like the Rams to come out here with a truly top tier prime time effort and for us to grab the cash by backing him.

Play on the Rams to cover

QB Hurts is not 100% for Philadelphia and is questionable for this game against Seattle. Even if he plays I like the Seahawks chances of covering and possibly even pulling off the upset. The Eagles according to my power rankings are over rated and after watching them get shellacked  the last two  weeks by SF, and Dallas my assumptions were justified, my  Note: I know Seattle has not faired well in their L/2  as dogs but from a historical standpoint have an edge here. 

The Seattle Seahawks are 16-1 ATS when off consecutive losses as a underdog, including 12-0 ATS the last 12 tilts overall.

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS   after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. 

Seattle is 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series. 

Play on Seattle 

The Ravens  are in a look ahead spot here as they face  San Francisco next Monday night, and could easily be over looking this opponent or at least not focused 100% which they will have to be vs a revv up group of Jaguars. The Ravens are just 1-7 ATS L/8 off consecutive wins, and  just 3-7 L/10  SU meetings in this series and  lost last year here on this field by a 28-27 count. Jacksonville have cashed 7 of their L/9 as dogs, and have cashed in 6 of their :/7 Sunday games. 

Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover

The Niners have clinched a play off spot and this a situation where they could be more interesting in staying healthy than playing their top players the entire game through. This game has letdown written all over it. From a historical standpoint the Niners are just 0-4 ATS L/4 on the road as DD favs dating back 11 seasons. Arizona is  8-1 ATS as a home dog of  9 or more points when at home when taking on a  .750 or better foe.Also Road favorites of 10.5 or more points (SAN FRANCISCO) - team outgaining opponents by 1.5+ yards per pass against team outgained by 1.5+ yards per pass are just 6-27 ATS dating back to 1983. 

Play on Arizona Cards to cover

 Kansas City has lost 2 straight and are now fully focused on a start to finish beat down of this opponent. The last game hurt as the Chiefs lost to the Bills by a 20-17 count and were not impressed by the officiating which Im betting has them pumped up entering this tilt.  Note: The chiefs are 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 off a home loss. I know the Pats got a surprise win last week, but its not going to happen this week, and Im betting on it. 

NEW ENGLAND is 1-7 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season.NEW ENGLAND is 0-6 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games this season.

NFL Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 32-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover

The Texans are planning to start Case Keenum on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, instead of Stroud who is on concussion protocol. Despite of this I steel feel the Texans are  capable of covering this number vs a Titans team that  despite of stunning victory vs the Fins last tike look lifeless more often than not and will now be in a letdown spot. Houston has covered 5 of their L/7 road games while the Titans are 1-5 L/6 vs AFC South sides.

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 33-9 ATS L/30 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites (TENNESSEE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texans to cover