Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-23 | Chargers +1.5 v. Vikings | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 46 m | Show | |
I like the Chargers here this week despite of some early season ugly defensive performances especially in the secondary. . As result of their defensive issues they are 0-2 with both losses coming via FG or less margin of defeat, This a very good Chargers team and their record is not indicative their true talents On the flipside, Ive watched the Vikings and they are a team that is set for major regression, both on offense and defense, and thanks to a -6 turnover margin are side that does not deserve respect here even at home, especially against an extremely hungry team that is much deeper in my opinion. NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 24-5 ATS since 1983 for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chargers to cover |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10.5 v. 49ers | 12-30 | Loss | -108 | 83 h 41 m | Show | |
Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Giants much of a chance this week. However, my projections estimate this line is bloated and gives us value with the road underdog. The The Giants proved their offense can be explosive as was evident in a 31 points second half output against the Cardinals in Week 2 for a come from behind victory and must be underestimated in their ability to some damage here this week in San Francisco. I know the Gmens top tier RB Saquon Barkley is banged up and may not play, but even then my projections say this is just to much lumber for the 49ers to lay. Advantage Giants. NY GIANTS are 22-9 ATS L/31 in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game .NY GIANTS are 18-4 ATS L/22 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in September games are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers +2 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Mike Tomlin's team was completely embarrassed last week vs the 49ers by a 30-7 count. Ugly to say the least. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and Im betting the Steelers as a group bounce back here in a big way. It must be noted that Tomlin is 8-1 SU when his side needs to even up their record. Tomlin is also 14-4-4 ATS as a home dog in his career as Steelers coach. . I know Cleveland had a big victory last week vs Cincinnati , but it the recent past this has not been a good omen for this group as they are 1-9 ATS L/10 when coming off a SUATS victory. CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS L/15 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival . NFL Underdogs or pick (PITTSBURGH) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Pittsburgh ahs won and covered the L/2 meetings at home between these sides.PITTSBURGH is 28-3 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992 in Pittsburgh. Play on Pittsburgh Steelers to cover |
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09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 45 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 51 m | Show | |
Niners had the league’s No.1 scoring defense last season allowing just 17.2 ppg and are off holding the Steelers to 7 points and a total of 239 yards on offense. On the flipsdie, the Rams, travelled to Seattle in week 1 action and slowed the Seahawks down to a crawl, as is evident by allowing just 180 total yards and only 13 points. Needless to say both the LA Rams and the SF 49ers looked very good defensively in game 1 of the season. Both did this while playing in the visitors role. Note:NFL Game2 sides playing in the their 2nd of back-to-back away tilts like the 49ers have only eclipsed the offered total just twice in 18 opportunities dating back 7 seasons. Also away sides like SF, have gone under 13 of their L/14 road games after allowing 7 pts or less on the road in their previous game. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Defense, Defense and more defense today in what Im betting will be a grinding tilt. NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 64% or better, versus division opponents are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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09-17-23 | Bears +3 v. Bucs | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 55 m | Show | |
There might have been to much hype surrounding the Bears in game 1 of the season against a Green Bay Packers side that has now beaten them in 9 straight and 24 of the L/27 meetings. Yes, the Bears looked bad in their first game of the season, but I still believe they will be an improved team, despite not necessarily being a play off contender. Here today against the Bucs Im betting they give their backers something to feel good about, as QB Fields and new acquisition DJ Moore should up their games, after that previous embarrassing effort. Meanwhile, their opposition, the Bucs might even be a worse of than the bad news Bears, as in game 1 of the season the offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play while the defense allowed 5.9 YPP. The Bucs still managed to win because of a 3-0 turnover margin, but they looked horrendous in the victory, and are being over rated while their opponents the Bears todays opponent might be under rated in this matchup. Whatever, the case I like the points here and Im recommending we go on the take the lesser of two evils. TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 99-171 since 1983 for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago Bears to cover |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 46 m | Show | |
Bengals star QB is off a ugly game week 1 performance vs Cleveland, where he registered a unfamiliar 52.2 passer rating. You can now bet the top gun quarterback will be primed for a big bounce back this week against the Baltimore Ravens. Bengals QB Burrow is 13-1 SUATS in his NFL career in games against opposition coming off a SU/ATS win like the Ravens.CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.CINCINNATI is 3-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons at home. Rinse and repeat. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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09-17-23 | Colts +1.5 v. Texans | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show | |
Colts QB Richardson was overall impressive in his first NFL start. He ran for a score but also completed a 39-yard touchdown pass to Michael Pittman Jr. He passed for 223 yards, completed 24 of 37 attempts and looks to be very poised under center and must be respected here in the underdog role. Meanwhile, his QB opponent Stroud, is a viable young arm, but Richardson looks more polished at this point and from my perspective the Colts are the overall deeper , healthier and more talented side and I wont be surprised if they win this game straight up. Stroud did not get a TD in first outing and the sledding promises to be less than easy in this tilt. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - sub par team from last season - outgained by their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play are 5-26 L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate. NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 in Houston and won their last visit here. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
Philadelphia did not look good against New England this past Sunday, but found a way to win even tough they were out yarded by 131 yards. Meanwhile, the Vikings lost despite of out gaining their opponent, the Tampa bay Bucs by 127 yards. It must ber noted that Minnesota's' QB Kirk Cousins is 29-9 ATS when his team were defeated the previous week. I know these teams showed diff results on the scoreboard, but I like the way the Vikes lineup here vs a injury riddled Eagles lineup , and they will get my support getting points. Philadelphia is n 0-6 ATS in their L/6 home openers, NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 18-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46.5 | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 107 h 38 m | Show | |
The Jets and Bills have a recent low scoring matchup history as is evident by three straight under in the last 3 meetings with 37, 37, and 32 combined points going on the scoreboard. Last season Buffalo went under the Total in 7 of 8 road games when favored, while the Jets went under in 4 of 5 games as home pups. BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 ppg scored. Also Monday night home dogs have remained on the low side of the number 13 straight times over the last couple of seasons. Considering this field is prob going to be in bad shape after the Dallas. NY Giants games on Sunday it would be fair to access that the sledding could be rough for the offenses which once again favors a lower scoring affair. NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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09-10-23 | Rams +5.5 v. Seahawks | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 81 h 22 m | Show | |
The Rams had a bad season last year, but that was in part due to key injuries including top gun QB M Stafford who is now healthy. Im now betting on a rebound from the Rams, and on the flipside for QB Geno Smith and company to regress after a better than expected season in 2022. Note: The Rams have cashed 5 of their L/6 season openers, while the Seahawks have failed to cover 7 of their L/8 as division home favs of 3 points or more. Rams are also 7-3 ATS L/10 as division road dogs. . LA RAMS is 4-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons and have covered their L/2 trips to Seattle. Play on Rams to cover |
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09-10-23 | Raiders +3.5 v. Broncos | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show | |
Las Vegas’ key offseason move came under center as they replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo and if he stays healthy he will pay dividends for this Raiders franchise.The Las Vegas Raiders have won their last six matchups with the Denver Broncos and Im betting they wont lose this game easily making getting points a viable investment option. It must also be noted that Denver has failed to cover 6 straight as division home favs. I know there is hype behind the Broncos but until they prove themselves with actual wins instead of just being competitive they are fade material. LAS VEGAS is 41-24 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992 NFL Home favorites (DENVER) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-43 ATS. since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors. Play on the Raiders to cover |
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09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +4 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 1 m | Show | |
New England’s offense has had an offseason revamp following the hiring of new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and Im betting they will be more aggressive offensively right out of the gate. The type of football that QB Mac Jones, thrived on in his days with Alabama will be implemented here with key receivers getting his attention, including new acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots have won four of the past five regular-season meetings and most not be underestimated here today at home. Defensively Im betting on LB Matt Judon to wreak havoc on the Eagles in an all out physical battle that favors the Pats. Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games. NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. New England is 12-3 SU L/15 home season openers under Bill Belichick . The loser of the previous Super Bowl if they are away in Game One of the campaign are just 2-15 ATS dating back 33 seasons. Play on New England Pats to cover |
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09-10-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Falcons | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 11 m | Show | |
The Carolina Panthers are set to start the 2023 season with a rookie quarterback. Bryce Young, but he is a quality player who learns quickly and must not be under estimated in his ability to get out of the gate quickly. Meanwhile, Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder goes for Atlanta. Ridder played four games and was sacked nine times. In those four games, he only passed for 708 yards and can hardly looked upon as a strong candidate to have a fluid game. My assessment and projections estimate a close game that could easily be decided by FG which gives us an edge with the underdog. Favorites (ATLANTA) - in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 6-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate. Carolina has covered thier last 2 visits to Atlanta. Carolina to cover |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs -4 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
KC has not lost a season opener since 2014 and Im betting they nab a victory again against what many believe is a top tier Lions squad. Truth is the Lions still have not proved anything and here against a top tier squad could find the sledding tough. I know Kelce may not play Thursday night and Jones who is holding out for a new contract may also not be there, but this Chiefs team is deep and deserves respect as less than TD home fav on opening night. Note: Motowns D allowed 6.2 yard per play last year) KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. KC HC Andy Reid is 6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division opposition with every win coming by double-digits. Play on KC Chiefs to win /cover |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs OVER 52 | 21-20 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
Detroit is 12-0 OVER Game 1 of the season and have gone over 4 straight vs AFC West... DETROIT is 14-1 OVER in road games against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Lions allowed 6.2 ypg on D last season dead last in the NFL. Im betting on Mahomes and company to rack up points again, and for Lions QB Jeff Goff who had 4438 yards and 29 TDs last season to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own. KC is 8-0 L/8 OVER Game 1 of the campaign... 8-0 OVER L8 vs Motown with a combined average 56 ppg scored. . Chiefs scored 44 points in the opening week win over the Arizona Cardinals in 2022, and have scored at least 33 points in every opener since 2017 and they Im betting will be the the catalysts for what Im betting will be an over cashing for us here tonight. Play over. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs +2 v. Eagles | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 156 h 57 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are being under valued here by the linesmakers and some of the betting pundits. Phillies passing D while ranked No.1 in the league, still remains their weakest link against top tier pocket passers like Mahomes, and Im betting that will be the difference maker in the end. Both drop back passers Dak Prescott and Gared Goff both put up big numbers on the Eagles this season, and Mahomes will also thrive. On the flip-side Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a shoulder issue, and despite having a solid running game to aid him, that wont be entirely enough to produce the offense needed to beat an experienced super bowl QB and league MVP like Mahomes. Mahomes is 9-1 ATS as a underdog in his NFL career, as well as 19-3 SU in non conference games and 4-0 SU vs NFC East opposition. Reid is 13-4 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY. Play on Kansas City to cover |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | 38-35 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 41 m | Show | |
Im betting the Eagles have no intention of turning this into a shootout, but rather a war of attrition and that means they will stubbornly stick to their vaunted ground attack which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Chiefs under rated D, will not be easily be run over and points for the Eagles will Im betting be muted . These two key projections have me taking an under wager here this Sunday for the Super Bowl. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season this season.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER after a win by 3 or less points over the last 2 seasons. Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 UNDER L/20 after allowing 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games on grass.Under is 16-5-1 in Eagles last 22 playoff games.Under is 60-27 in Eagles last 87 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Play UNDER |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 61 h 11 m | Show | |
I know alot has been made of how the Bengals have won 3 straight meetings vs the Chiefs. But now Im betting on a huge redemption minded performance from the KC here in Sundays play off game. Note: Chiefs HC Andy Reid’ in games with triple revenge-exact is 7-1 ATS at home, including 5-0 ATS at home off a win. I know superstar quarterback Mahomes has suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week’s 27-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he practiced this week without a hitch and Im betting his injury is being exaggerated. A key factor here today for Burrows and company is a banged up offensive line, and could be without three starting offensive linemen . All and all Im betting home field advantage and Mahomes inexplicable need to get a win here will be the difference maker. Reid is 14-1 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of KANSAS CITY. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 5-25 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on KC to cover |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 48 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 58 h 29 m | Show | |
I know Joe Burrows and Patrick Mahomes keep the spot light on a possible shootout, but according to my projections that is unlikely in a do or die championship play off game. The Chiefs have allowed an average of just 19.4 ppg at home this season while the Bengals have allowed just 20.6 ppg in away tilts. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. Six of the L/7 meetings here in KC between these teams has stayed on the low side of the offered Total. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 49-21 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-29-23 | 49ers +2.5 v. Eagles | 7-31 | Loss | -102 | 55 h 20 m | Show | |
These sides the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles are very evenly, matched but Im betting the difference maker will be the 49ers Niners’ PK Robbie Gould, who has made all 67 of his career playoff kicks, including 38 consecutive extra-point attempts including 29 FGs for a perfect 100% conversion rate. Add in the Niners protracted play off experience, and home field advantage is in my betting mind negated. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Shanahan is 11-1 ATS in January games as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO. NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on 49ers to cover |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -4 | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show | |
Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy has won his first six starts and deserves respect here in a place where the 49ers have dominated opponents. The 49ers at Levi’s Stadium, have victories in 13 of their last 14 and covered 12 of those games. With an 11 game current overall win streak that highlights their effectiveness Im betting the hosts get the job done again behind a top tier D, and a running back in RB Christian McCaffrey who matches up well against the Cowboys strong D. I know DakPrescott looked good against the horrid D, of the Bucs lat week, but this Sunday night Im betting his life will be made miserable by aggressive pass rushing group .SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season this season.SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons. Play on SF 49ers to cover |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills -5.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 24 m | Show | |
Cincinnati is just 1-6 In ITS against fellow playoff sides this season and have lost the stats battles in 3 straight games by an average o 139 ypg. I don't care how many good ATS trends support the Bengals taking points it just not justify their current play and in my betting opinion are over rated at less than a TD dogs. Note: The Bengals banged up offensive line is down to just tow reg starters. Look for Burrows to spend a great deal of time scrambling around today and will land on his back more than once. On the flip side Buffalos Josh allan after suffering with a sore wrist looks to be back on form and will primed for a big day. McDermott is 11-1 ATS after a win by 3 or less points as the coach of BUFFALO. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 62-108 L/29 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 25-4 L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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01-21-23 | Giants +7.5 v. Eagles | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 2 m | Show | |
The Giants are being under rated in this tilt considering they 11-2 ATS underdog with HC Brian Daboll at the helm. Also it must be noted that the Gmen were involved in 14 one-score tilts this season cashing at a 12-1-1 ATS rate proving how highly competitive they were behind a never say die attitude and top tier chemistry. I know the Giants lost both times to the Eagles this season, but now in double revenge the Giants are the right side at this line offering. NY GIANTS are 7-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season this season. PHILADELPHIA is 15-31 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Giants to cover |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 1 m | Show | |
The Jaguars were trailing 27-0 before making. a miraculous comeback last time out,vs the Chargers . However, now Im betting the Jags will be in a huge a huge emotional letdown spot against a rested Kansas City side that will be ready to put the pedal to the metal and not let off the accelerator til the very end.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons. Note: HC Reid’s 19 career postseason victories have been by double-digit margins. Rinse and repeat in play this week vs the Jags. Play on the Chiefs to cover |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs +2.5 | 31-14 | Loss | -105 | 106 h 2 m | Show | |
In Tom Brady Brady we trust . The GOAT is a 19-time division champion and is 7-0 SU in his career versus the Dallas Cowboys . I will happily take the points here with one of the great all time QBs in NFL history in a key play off game. Hey don't get me wrong Dak Prescott is a excellent QB as well but he has a propensity for turning the ball over via interceptions. DALLAS is 5-15 ATS in road games in January games since 1992. Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a natural surface. Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tampa Bay to cover |
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01-15-23 | Ravens +7 v. Bengals | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 107 h 30 m | Show | |
Baltimore ranks third in scoring defense (18.5 points allowed per game) and tied for ninth in total defense (324.3 yards allowed per game). I know alot of focus is on whether Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will play, but Im betting the difference maker here comes via the Ravens ability to play physical ball against a team that has played every game like its their last. Which for me is not a good omen going into the play offs, as exhaustion and regression could easily rare their ugly heads at the worst possible time. Remember Baltimore beat Cincinnati in week 5 and in my opinion valid underdogs in this tilt. BALTIMORE is 31-15 ATS l/36 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better, ) Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as the coach of BALTIMORE. CINCINNATI is 3-13 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion run for bettors. Play on Baltimore to cover |
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01-15-23 | Dolphins +9.5 v. Bills | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 100 h 50 m | Show | |
The Bills’ this past season had some problems with the Dolphins Closing as 4.5-point favorites in the first meeting, they were defeated by a 21-19. than as 7-point chalk the second time round and barely squeezed by in that matchup be a 32-29 score. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here as I have this tilt projected at less than a TD for Buffalo thus giving us value with an underdog take with the Fins.Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Bills are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Play on the Dolphins to cover |
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01-15-23 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 47 | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 99 h 54 m | Show | |
Im betting Miami turns this into a physical grinding play off affair that ends in a combined score that will not eclipse this totals offering. Slow and easy will be the clock eating mission of the Fins as they try to keep QB Josh Allen on the sidelines as long as possible. MIAMI is 12-3 UNDER in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 Wildcard games. Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 playoff games BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored. NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. NFL team against the total (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 47-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Under is 7-3 in Bills last 10 vs. AFC. Play UNDER |
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01-14-23 | Seahawks +9.5 v. 49ers | 23-41 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 36 m | Show | |
The 49ers opened the season 3-4 and trailed the Seahawks in the division race before running off 10 consecutive victories. The 49ers look like the right side, but after playing very hard physical ball for an extended period of time they could easily hit a wall regress at the worst possible time. Something Im betting on here in this play off tilt. NFL Road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 28-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Play on Seattle to cover |
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01-08-23 | Lions +4.5 v. Packers | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 74 h 35 m | Show | |
Despite of Green Bays big win vs Minnesota last week all was not perfect as they were out yarded in that tilt by a 346-315 deficit and have lost the stats battles in 6 of their L/7, so not all is good in Cheesville. Meanwhile, Detroit is 9-0 ATS L/9 division tilts, and need a win to make the play offs and some added luck of Seattle losing. The Lions will be motivated and their recent history against division tilts has me on the take this Sunday. DETROIT is 9-2 ATS versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons DETROIT is 7-0 ATS versus sub par rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. DETROIT is 7-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - off a win against a division rival, in January games. are 27-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. NFL road teams (DETROIT) - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 15-41 ATS L/39 seasons for 71% conversion rate. Play on the Detroit Lions |
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01-08-23 | Bucs +4 v. Falcons | 17-30 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 34 m | Show | |
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. NFL Road underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 27-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. TAMPA BAY is 5-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons and 2-0 in their L/2 visits to Atlanta. Play on Tampa Bay to cover |
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01-08-23 | Ravens +7 v. Bengals | 16-27 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 14 m | Show | |
Cincinnati had their game suspended last time out because of a sudden heart attack of one of their opponents players (Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills.) It was a worrisome situation that Im betting is still playing the minds of the Bengals. Despite of this being the Bengals home finale Im betting Baltimore surging defensive play will keep them in this tilt for a cover. Note: Baltimore stoppers have allowed an average of 292 yards per game over the L/2 plus months. The Ravens are also very competitive side as is evident by their last six games being decided by an average of just 4 ppg. CINCINNATI is 3-12 ATS L/15 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season . Harbaugh is 33-18 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better as the coach of BALTIMORE NFL Road teams (BALTIMORE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Baltimore Ravens to cover |
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01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | 23-35 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 47 m | Show | |
After the collective trauma the Bills suffered last week when their team mate Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest it wont be a easy thing to get over . Needless to say the lingering effects of that negative event could sway their mental cogdoscence this week making them vulnerable vs a very hungry Pats team that is in desperation mode as they need a victory here for a post season appearance. The Pats also have the added incentive of revenge for a loss they suffered to the Bills earlier this season. NEW ENGLAND is 12-1 ATS in road games revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more . (Buffalo beat the Pats 24-10 back in December) HC Bill Belichick in his last game of the season in his career with New England is 4-0 ATS as an underdog. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 27-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. NFL home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New England to cover |
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01-08-23 | Vikings -5.5 v. Bears | 29-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
Chicago looks to be just going though the motions and are playing ugly ball losing their L/5 games by DDs. Here today vs a angry Vikings side looking to rebound from a beating at Green Bay will be primed for a Bounce back before the play offs start. Vikings are 46-22 ATS in their last 68 games following a straight up loss. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Bears are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC.Bears are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. NFC North. Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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01-07-23 | Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Jacksonville has really played well of late and are off a couple of convincing wins, and 4 straight overall However is must be noted that JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS L/10 after 2 straight wins by 14 or more points . With the AFC title at hand here, Im betting we see a grinding affair that will not easily be won by either side making getting points the strongest option here tonight. Tennessee has won their L/2 visits to Jacksonville. Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Jaguars are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. NFL road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. Play on Tennessee to cover |
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01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 26 m | Show | |
The Chiefs main concern this week is staying healthy for the play offs while Vegas who have been competitive for most of this season, will be primed to pull. off an upset. Considering the Raiders QB Jarrett Stidham carved up one of the best defenses in the NFL last week in a 37-34 loss vs SF Im betting we have what Im betting is a live dog to back . Chiefs are 2-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Chiefs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Chiefs are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West.Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. CITY is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 1-10 ATS against conference opponents this season. McDaniels is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of LAS VEGAS. Play on Raiders to cover |
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01-01-23 | Steelers +2 v. Ravens | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh is 6-2 when when JJ Watts their outside linebacker plays and Im betting he will ignite this Steelers team again vs a Baltimore side that clinched a play of spot last week and could easily find themselves in a emotional let down spot vs a hard working group that believe it or not still have a chance at a play off spot. The Steelers have been victorious in four of their last five trips to the gridiron with their only loss coming by two points against these same Ravens back in Week 14. BALTIMORE is 7-18 ATS L/25 in home games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight game. Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU L/5 vs Baltimore and 2-0 L/2 here in Baltimore. NFL Home favorites (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 19-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show | |
The Packers enter Week 17 on a three-game winning streak, and Im betting they make 4 in row here today behind the streakiest QB I ever seen (Aaron Rodgers) . Minnesotas inability to protect their own QB (Cousins) will be key here, as they have allowed 11 sacks in their in their L/2 games. Rogers is 32-7-1 SU and 28-12 ATS at home in division games in his NFL career and has cashed all 4 of his opportunities this season . Play on Green Bay Packers to cover |
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01-01-23 | Jets v. Seahawks +1.5 | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 27 m | Show | |
Seahawks are struggling and have lost 3 straight and off two losses as pups but the good news comes via their 10-0 ATS mark as hosts when coming off consecutive underdog losses. Also Pete Carroll, is 8-1 SU at home in January, including 4-0 SUATS with a sub .500 record . Carroll is 20-9 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of SEATTLE. The Seahawks go against a NY Jets that has gotten worse as the season has gone on, and no matter who starts at QB for them Wilson or White they just dont look cohesive as is evident by a 4 straight losses, and a overall offense that produces just 19.8 ppg on the road this season they continue to be fade material. NY JETS are 4-16 ATS in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season. Play on Seattle to cover |
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01-01-23 | Jaguars v. Texans +4 | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Jacksonville has been playing well of late ,but being this big a fav on the road is not something I would support considering the Jags have failed to cover 5 of their L/7 as road favs. Meanwhile, the Texans come here looking confident after a upset win last week vs Tennessee for their third straight cover . Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-11 SU against opposition coming off a SU underdog win. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons and is 2-0 SU here at home. NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 20-50 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston Texans to cover |
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12-26-22 | Chargers v. Colts +4 | 20-3 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 14 m | Show | |
The Colts have now had two straight 33-point meltdowns: one last week when Minnesota overcame a 33-point halftime deficit to defeat Indianapolis in a spectacular comeback victory the other when they were outscored 33-0 in in the final quarter a tight game at Dallas the week before . Needless to say this is a red faced group that will play this game with nothing to lose making them a dangerous foe. INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS L/24 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points . INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons. NFLHome underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season are 60-27 L/39 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Colts to cover |
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12-25-22 | Bucs v. Cardinals +7.5 | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 85 h 13 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay is not a championship calibre team and they proved it last week by blowing a 17 point lead to the Bengals and then making blunder after blunder. in a ugly DD loss. Not even the great Tom Brady has looked all that good, as father time remains undefeated and has slowed the future HOF down considerably. On the flip-side, Arizona has nothing to play for , but beating the Bucs would help many on this team sleep better. With that said, TB still in play off position, but still not the kind of team you want to back as a TD or more road fav as they are just 1-8 ATS L/9 as chalk and have failed to cash 6 of their L/7 vs NFC West opposition. Add to that the Cards are 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 2 point or more home pups. AMPA BAY is 1-7 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. TAMPA BAY is 1-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season. TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS in games played on a grass field this season. ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 10-1 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of ARIZONA. NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 16-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arizona to cover |
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12-24-22 | Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 27 m | Show | |
Kansas City clinched the AFC West last week, and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot here this week vs a Seattle side Im sure they are overlooking. As the season winds down the Chiefs could start to rest some of their walking wounded more often and with Seattle still with an outside chance to make the playoffs I expect Pete Carrolls Seahawks will play hard here and get us the cover. . Reid is 0-8 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse in all games he has coached since 1992. Carroll is 19-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE. KANSAS CITY is 4-21 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games since 1992. KANSAS CITY is 1-9 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 season Carroll is 19-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE Carroll is 12-2 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of SEATTLE Reid is 2-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY NFL Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 18-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate. Seahawks to cover |
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12-24-22 | Saints v. Browns -2.5 | 17-10 | Loss | -120 | 65 h 40 m | Show | |
Cleveland has Watkins back under center- Browns are 2-1 since Watson returned. He completed 18 of 28 passes for 161 yards in a 13-3 victory against Baltimore in his home debut in nasty conditions last Saturday. With this Saturday includes a 48 percent chance of snow, winds gusting beyond 30 mph and a high temperature of 13 degrees before factoring wind chill its going to be a ugly weather situation one that does not favor the dome side New Orleans. Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win which was the case last time out. Browns are 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series and 8-1 L/9 vs AFC South opposition. Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 9-24 ATS against AFC North division opponents since 1992. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS ( after playing a game at home this season. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 1-26 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.3 which qualifies on this ATS offering. NFL team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 38-9 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Browns to cover |
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12-24-22 | Giants +4.5 v. Vikings | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 9 m | Show | |
Last week the Vikings garnered a huge come from behind win scoring 33 points to outlast the Indianapolis Colts by a 39-36 count. That clinched their division and play off birth and now Im betting they are in a huge emotional letdown situation that could easily effect them here today vs a hungry NY Giants side. It must also be noted that Vikings have been out yarded in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron and have been involved in 10 one score games this season. I know the Gmen may not inspire us, but they have cashed 7 of 9 as dogs, under HC Dabol and are viable investment options in this spot play. . Vikings are 1-6 ATS L/7 vs NFC East opposition. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 7-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 16-37 L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Giants to cover |
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12-24-22 | Seahawks v. Chiefs OVER 49 | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 44 m | Show | |
These teams the Chiefs and Seahawks have played scorched earth all out offensive slugfests in recent meetings going 5-0 OVER in the last 5 matchups with a combined average score of 62.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. With that said, Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this week, as the leagues most explosive offense lead by QB Mahomes takes on the 2nd worst road defense in the league this season as the Seahawks allow 56.7 ppg away from home. Im betting on the Chiefs doing some damage here offensively (projection of 28+ points) and for the Seahawks to be in all chase mode, which will help us see a combined score that eclipses this offering.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 OVER when they score 28 or more points this season with a combined average 52.2 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 12-1 OVER when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 68 ppg scored. Im also projecting Seattle to score 20+ points-SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 63 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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12-24-22 | Bengals v. Patriots +3 | 22-18 | Loss | -100 | 53 h 19 m | Show | |
New England lost a strange game last week, brain farts galore by some players best describes it. I wont get into it here, but it was embarrassing. Pros do not like to be embarrassed and coach Bellichick Im sure will have his team ready for redemption against a red hot Bengals side that is on a 6-0 run. Patriots are 6-1 ATS L7 in this series . and 4-1-1 L/6 vs AFC North opposition. NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992. Patriots HC Bill Belichick is 14-0 ATS as a non-division dog coming off a loss with New England. NEW ENGLAND is 26-12 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. Play on Patriots to cover |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars +1.5 v. Jets | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
The Jags are finally playing top brand of football behind ,QB Trevor Lawrence who now leads the NFL in passer rating (111.2) and completion percentage, (14 TDs, 1 int) going back to Week 9 . Tonight he will be challenged by a top tier D, but probably wont have to worry about going back and forth as the Jets offense is extremely atrocious. With the Jags still in the race for play off spot Im betting they get the job done with an all out effort and more importantly as far as we are concerned get the cover. Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover |
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12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
QB Baker Mayfield made his return to the gridiron last week and lead the defending champs to a 17-16 victory over the Raiders. However, this Monday in the cold the tundra of historic Lambeau Field Im betting he freezes up and for the continually banged up Rams to falter.. Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Rams are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. It must be noted that the Green Bay Packers are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in this series since 2007 . Also QB Aaron Rodgers is 23-12-3 ATS in his career against NFC West opponents and when he is coming off a Bye week is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home in his career . GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and they get the nod again tonight on MNF. Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay. Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Favorite is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Play on Green Packers to cover |
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12-18-22 | Bengals v. Bucs +4 | 34-23 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 27 m | Show | |
Tom Brady has a big chip on his shoulder right now after a bad game against the SF 49ers last time out. It was embarrassing as it was third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career. But now with a week of rest (bye week) you can bet the GOAT will be out looking hard for redemption. I know the Bengals have won and covered 5 straight, but looking maybe a little bit to over confident. note: Brady 11-1 ATS in career as a home underdog and 10-0 SU/ATS off a loss of more than 7 points. Advantage Brady and company. NFL Underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 38-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play on Tampa Bay Bucs to cover |
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12-18-22 | Titans +3 v. Chargers | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 46 h 16 m | Show | |
Chargers are in a good mood after an upset, of the Dolphins last week. But now after that emotional win will be in a letdown mode and vulnerable to a down effort vs a side that is having some problems and now with a new HC. Note:NFL .500 or greater NFL sides like Tennessee that are 0-3 SUATS in its last three games versus an opponent that is coming off a SU/ATS win are 8-1 SU and 16-3 ATS taking on a side off a SU underdog win. We also know the Titans are a run first team , and here against the worst run D, in the league allowing an average of 5.4 rpc , trouble in brewing for the favs. Titans are 6-1 ATS L/7 vs West.LA CHARGERS are 1-8 ATS after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons LA CHARGERS are 21-39 ATS L/60 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Play on Tennessee to cover |
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12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars +4 | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 47 h 26 m | Show | |
There was a time earlier this season when I gave hope for Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence,. but now my hopimism has turned positive as is evident by his 111.7 passer rating over his L/3 outings. I know he goes against a red hot Dallas side, but this Jags teams looks to have come to life and will highly motivated to steal a win here and more importantly as far as we are concerned get us the cover. In the only game here against Dallas in the history of the Jags, they are 1-0 SU/ATS. NFL Home teams (JACKSONVILLE) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 31-9 L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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12-18-22 | Steelers v. Panthers OVER 37.5 | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show | |
My projections estimate both sides will eclipse the 20 point plateau giving us strong value with an over wager . Note: PITTSBURGH is 14-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVE when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-3 OVER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 50-21 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. The L/6 meetings in this series have seen both teams combined to average 48.8 ppg. Play on the over |
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12-18-22 | Lions +1.5 v. Jets | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 11 m | Show | |
My power ranking suggest Detroit is the better side and currently in better form. than their opponents the NY Jets. The Lions are 6-0 SU L/6 overall while the NYJ have 4 of their L/6 and have overall shown long droughts of not being able to put points on the board averaging just 20.3 ppg on the season. Advantage Lions. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 season,DETROIT is 12-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (NY JETS) - after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 1-26 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate. Play on Detroit to cover |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
The young men from Florida wont get much of welcome in the cold climate of Northern NY state this Saturday night against a revenge minded Bills who have redemption in mind for a loss they suffered in Miami earlier this season. I know the Bills already took a 16 point deficit win in the first revenge go around, but believe me , teams like this double down this time of year and really come out to play. With this being the Dolphins 3rd straight road Im betting their a bit exhausted . Note: The Fins are 1-6 ATS L/7 in their 3rd game on the road. MIAMI is 4-13 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better) in the second half of the season. BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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12-17-22 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
The Colts have not looked good lately and got beat up badly last time out vs Dallas, losing 54-19 allowing 33 points in the last quarter wow. Combination of bad luck and just plain ugly football has them embarrassed and out looking for immediate redemption. Pros dont like to be embarrassed like that and you can bet they will play like their proverbial hair is on fire. Colts are 7-0 ATS L/7 vs NFC North opposition. Considering how inconsistent the Vikings have been this year wont be surprised if they have a down game. INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 season NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 7-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. Play on Indy to cover |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
QB Brock Purdy, and his 134 passer rating were impressive last week to say the least in the 49ers DD win vs the visiting Tampa Bay Bucs . Meanwhile Seattle was taken out by a play off hungry Panthers last week by a 30-24 count, and failed to cover for the 4th straight time. Despite of the two opposite trajectories these teams are on, Im betting the old ball coach Pete Carroll has some magic he can deploy in desperation mode as the Seahawks still have play off hopes. With Star Deebo Samuel out with a sprained ankle and MCL and a expected regression from media darling Purdy and a desperation effort from the home side should help as cash a underdog ticket. ,Seattle is 4-0 ATS at home off a home game, as well 9-2-1 ATS in Thursday nights while the 49ers have failed to cover in three straight Thursday prime time tilts. SAN FRANCISCO is 13-28 ATS L/41 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game . SEATTLE is 41-18 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season. . Carroll is 6-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 22-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play on Seattle to cover |
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12-12-22 | Patriots -1.5 v. Cardinals | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
New England well rested after a bye week is one game ahead of the Jets and currently sits as the No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff race and come into tilt in need of wins to stay relevant for post season action, while the Cardinals are pretty much toast when it comes to making the play offs , unless they can string together wins here to finish of the season. Im betting both sides will be motivated, but the coaching edge , resides with Belichick going against Kingsbury. Arizonas coach Kingsbury is just 5-15 ATS at home when his side is s 2 point or less underdog. and his side is 0-3 SUATS the last three in Monday night prime time tilts . Meanwhile, Bill Belichick is 22-9 SU/ATS against NFC West opposition sides in his NFL career, and 13-0 SU if that team is coming off a loss like Arizona is. Also the Pats despite of coming off a loss are a resilient bunch as is evident by their 6-0 ATS record off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and are also 7-0 ATS after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. ARIZONA is 3-12 ATS in home games against AFC East division opponents.ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS)in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.. Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. Pats are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 visits to Arizona. Play on New England Pats to cover |
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12-11-22 | Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers | 7-35 | Loss | -120 | 52 h 7 m | Show | |
49ers starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a season-ending foot injury last time out and now a backup QB will go to the field ie probably Purdy who took over from Jimmy last time . With Tom Brady and company out seeking revenge for a previous loss to SF Im betting the Bucks have edge . Brady is 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and his 24-6 overall ATS record when getting points. Considering San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home favorite of less than four points its an easy decision for me to back the future HOF QB to come up big here as the Bucs make a run at post season action . I know SF is ranked in No.1 in D, but Tampa Bay's defense is also of the top tier variety as the Buccaneers rank eighth in the NFL in total defense (313.8), fifth in scoring defense (18.3) and fourth in sacks (38). Tampa Bay to cover |
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12-11-22 | Panthers +4 v. Seahawks | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 59 m | Show | |
Seattle had to come from behind and take a late win vs the banged-up Rams in Week 13. Seattle is getting far to much respect from the lines-makers this week, despite of playing a sub par side. We have to remember Carolina (4-8), and are off a bye week so their well rested and believe it or or not sill in a playoff position in the slumping NFC South. With that said the Panthers still have plenty to play as they are only two games out of first place. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Meanwhile, Seahawks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win. Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams (SEATTLE) - excellent passing team (7.3 or less PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA), after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 9-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Carolina Panthers to cover |
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12-11-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 44 | 34-28 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 14 m | Show | |
Denver just cant put points on the board, consistently especially with Wilson under center. Note: Wilson’s 83.5 Passer Rating ranks No. 29th of all starting quarterbacks during this campaign. I know the Chiefs pass D is sometimes porous , but DENVER is just 8-1 UNDER vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 32.4 ppg scored. Meanwhile, we know the Chiefs can pile up points but it must also be noted that Denvers D is a solid group, as as a result of this are 9-2 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.3 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC. NFL road favs off a road chalk defeat in their last game like the Chiefs have gone under in their following game in all 6 times this has happened this season. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 25-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. DENVER is 9-0 UNDER in games played on a natural surface field this season and 11-1 under on the season. Under is 22-7 in Broncos last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play UNDER |
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12-11-22 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | 36-22 | Win | 100 | 49 h 60 m | Show | |
Both teams were blown out last week, but one of these teams is more motivated than the other as , Jacksonville (4-8) has one shot to get it self into contention for post season action. It either wins this week or it will miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year since advancing to the AFC finals in 2017, when it held a fourth-quarter lead before losing in New England. Motivational factors support taking the points here with the Jags. Pederson is 14-3 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS L/28 vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season. TENNESSEE is 9-22 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight game NFL Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-17 L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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12-08-22 | Raiders v. Rams UNDER 43.5 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
This total according to my projections is a bit high and we have an edge with an under wager here this Thursday night. I know the Raiders have been rolling but HC Jacobs is dealing with some injuries that may slow that roll . On the flip-side the Rams are decimated offensively as the injuries are sky high, and Im betting they wont be able to take advantage of below average Raiders D. Note: Raiders rank 23rd in situation-neutral pace and Rams rank 28th. Game 13 teams like the Rams with a win % of .250 or less, when the Totals offering is 42 or more have gone under in 21 of the L/24 times for a 88% conversion rate dating back 9 seasons. LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.8 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg. Raiders have gone under in 4 of their L/5 non division road games as favs. Rams have gone under in their 3 Thursday night tilts, NFL Road teams against the total (LAS VEGAS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-04-22 | Colts +10.5 v. Cowboys | 19-54 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
The Cowboys are running hot, but Im going to take a contrarian stance here tonight and back Indianapolis to cover the line. I know the Colts disappointed last week in a loss as favorites but they have proven resilient in the past off that type of loss winning 11 of their L/13 opportunities for redemption. NDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Dallas’ owns a sub par 9-17 SU and 7-17-2 ATS record against non-division opposition in prime time Sunday Night affairs. The Cowboys own a 0-5 ATS record as chalk of more than 7 points when coming off a Thanksgiving day game . Meanwhile, the The Colts owns a powerful 8-1 ATS records before their Bye week, which is up next a are 7-1 ATS in non-conference road tilts . Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover |
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12-04-22 | Chiefs -1.5 v. Bengals | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 22 m | Show | |
The Chiefs have big time revenge on board for their AFC championship game loss last season, to this Cincinnati side. Im betting they get their redemption behind the arm and legs of super star QB Patrick Mahomes who is 26-0 in his last 26 starts in November and December. Play on KC Chiefs to cover |
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12-04-22 | Seahawks v. Rams +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 45 h 24 m | Show | |
I know the defending Super Bowl champions the LA Rams are banged up and not in top form , but this is just to many points for the Seahawks to cover in my humble opinion on the road , giving us value with the undervalued home underdog. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. Carroll is 18-33 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 13. Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December. NFL Favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 67-119 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rams to cover |
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12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 35 m | Show | |
The Jets have pivoted from QB Zach Wilson to Mike White and Im betting that will be a beneficial move . The Jets right now if the season ended would be in the play offs and are very motivated to get some upward momentum. It must be noted in two career starts, White owns passer ratings of 149.3 and 101.1 in his first and only other start last season. Interestingly enough the Jets had eclipsed the 30 point -plateau and 450 Total Yards in the last four seasons just 3 times and guess who was the starting QB in those games, you got it - White. So this week against a Vikings side that has lost the stats battles in 3 straight games, the Jets must not be underestimated in this ability to cash a ticket for us. NY JETS are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.NY JETS are 6-0 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons. NFL Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. NFLHome favorites (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. NY Jets to cover |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER as a road favorite this season with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. But with this prime time game registering like a play off affair Im betting on an even lower combined score in what Im betting will be a grinding affair. New England's consistency on offense is something that aids us tonight with this wager. They do not rank in the top half of the league in any statistical category. The Pats had some production last week vs the Vikings defense that ranks 31st in the league and dead last against the pass. But that wont be the case here vs a Buffalo D, that despite of inconsistencies is ready and capable of standing tall here tonight. Yes, last weeks Buffalos D failed it, but they will be primed for a complete game bounce back. Last week, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson used a lot of pre-snap motion and formations to generate one-on-one matchups, but the Pats are not capable of this with this current group . NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite are 27-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 37.3 ppg going on the board. NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 61-24 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 41.6 ppg. Play UNDER |
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11-28-22 | Steelers +3 v. Colts | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh is being under rated here in this matchup vs the Colts especially with JJ watts in the lineup. His energy permeates through this team and gives them an extra charge. The Steelers are 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine matchups versus AFC South opponents, while the Colts are just 1-6 ATS L/7 vs AFC North opponents. The Steelers are 16-2 SU L/18 in this series, including 2-0 SUATS as a pup. I know the Colts have played better of late, but this team is still in disarray and fade material in my humble betting opinion. Pittsburgh 8-1 ATS L/ 9 MNF vs division opposition Play Pittsburgh to cover . |
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11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | 33-40 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
The Eagles had to get down and dirty in a come from behind in the 4th quarter last week to garner a 17-16 win vs Indianapolis and will now be in an unfortunate emotional letdown situation vs a very hungry Green Bay side. I know the Packers fell flat on their faces last week losing as favs , but it must be noted that QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SU/ATS as a pup when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss. Rodgers is a very streaky QB, and dont be surprised if he finishes this season on fire, starting tonight in Philly on national TV. It must also be noted that Philly has lost the stats wars in 3 of their L/6 games and are being over rated by the pundits in my humble betting opinion. PHILADELPHIA is 14-31 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992. NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Green Bay Packers to cover |
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11-27-22 | Saints v. 49ers OVER 42.5 | 0-13 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 42 m | Show | |
The 49ers offense is multi dimensional with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell at running back, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle. Im betting this group. matches up well for the Saints D, and does some damage . On the flispide Andy Dolton and the Saints despite of some inconsistencies put 27 points on the Rams last week in a victory and should not be underestimated in their ability to do have decent output vs. a strong SF D. Note:The Saints stand 8th in the league in passing offense with 237.5 yards per game and Im betting the 49ers will force them to bomb away as SF goes above their expected offensive output average. NFC WEST home teams like the 49ers vs any NFC SOUTH opponent like New Orleans , when the Total offering is 43 or more points are 10-1 OVER L/4 seasons. New Orleans and the SF 49ers have gone over 9 straight times here in California with a combined average of 52.5 ppg going on the board! Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC. Play OVER |
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11-27-22 | Bears +6 v. Jets | 10-31 | Loss | -107 | 75 h 50 m | Show | |
The Jets averaged 2.1 yards per play in last Sundays defeat at the hands of the New England Pats and don't deserve this much respect based on having a overall strong D. QB Wilson will not start this week, but any back up pivot Im betting wont fair much better . Yes, I do know QB Justin Fields is not 100% but his legs are dangerous offensive weapons and if he does not play pounding the ball on the ground is not a foreign concept of moving the ball for the Bears giving them an advantage in this type of matchup. NY JETS are 19-34 ATS off a road loss against a division rival since 1992. NY JETS are 22-38 ATS in home games in non-conference games since 1992. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 13-40 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate. CHICAGO is 6-1 against the spread versus NY JETS since 1992 and have covered their L/3 visits to NYJ. Chicago is 4-0 ATS L/4 vs AFC East opposition. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings -2.5 | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Wow it was a crazy week for both these sides last time out on the gridiron. The 8-2 Vikings took their worst home loss since 1963 and the Pats after looking asleep at the wheel for most of their game vs the Jets took a walk off win with a punt return for the length of the field. Now Im betting on a complete reversal of sorts as a huge redemption minded bounce back for the Vikes is in play and for karma to instantly strike back at the Pats vs an embarrassed side looking to gain back some self respect. Im betting on Minnesota to make it 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 Thanksgiving days games. MINNESOTA is 12-2 ATS in home games after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 37 m | Show | |
The Giants were torched for 31 points last time out vs Detroit in a loss and now Im betting will be more focused and prepared to try to pair up their defense, by trying to slow this game down to a grind by using their running game , especially knowing they will be playing an explosive Dallas offense. Meanwhile, Dallas behind a strong D, allowing just 16.2 ppg at home this season will once again be hard to score on. This above mentioned combo Im betting will lead to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 9-1 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 23-8 UNDER vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 21-8 UNDER in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. Under is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 games in Week 12.Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games in November.Under is 20-5-2 in Giants last 27 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games.Under is 21-6-1 in Giants last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 9-3-2 in Giants last 14 vs. NFC.Under is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC East.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a ATS loss.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a straight up loss.Under is 33-16-2 in Giants last 51 games overall. DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored. Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 13-3-1 in Cowboys last 17 games on fieldturf NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 61-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52 | 30-27 | Loss | -107 | 63 h 57 m | Show | |
Im sure the pundits and weekend warriors are expecting a passing duel when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs go head to head with Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. However, both these teams are most prob going to have key receivers out of the lineup this week and Im betting that will hamper big downfield plays. Key here will be the Chargers inconsistent offense this season behind a banged up QB Herbert’s who is still not 100% with a rib injury, which happened in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs. Throw in the WR issues and the Chargers could have problems with point production vs a under rated KC defense and fail to live up to offensive estimates from the lines-makers which makes for an inflated Total that is vulnerable to be taken advantage of from under bettors. Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in November.Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 vs. AFC. LA CHARGERS are 29-12 UNDER (L/41 in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better ) with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 25-12 UNDER L/37 in home games revenging a same season loss against opponent with a combined average of 39.6 ppg going on the board. Under is 22-6 in Chargers last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game Game 15 or less road chalk of 6 or more points with a Totals line of 49 or more have gone under in 12 of the L/13 times dating back 3 seasons. NFL games in which the home team is an UNDERDOG have gone 16-42 UNDER overall and 0-6 UNDER when AFC team is the home dog . NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games. are 73-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-20-22 | Bears +3 v. Falcons | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 66 h 7 m | Show | |
Atlanta is 4-6 SU on the season, but even at that sub standard record is a aberration as the Falcons have been out-yarded -82 in net YPG ranking second worse in the NFL and are an ugly 1-9 in the stats battles this campaign. Meanwhile, the Bears , despite of not being a top tier side, are dangerous behind the legs of QB Justin Fields and a offensive system that starting to micmic cfb military school programs. That might be an exaggeration but you get the picture. Im saying the Bears matchup well here vs a obviously over rated opponent based on stats. Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss which was the case last time out. Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 24-61 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Play on Chicago Bears to cover |
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11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 51 m | Show | |
NY Jets are playing over all proficient football and are 6-3 SUATS record, including 4-0 SUATS on the road and have an overall 5-1 SU record L/6 trips to the gridiron and obviously deserve respect as road dogs. I know New England carries a famous brand name but the Jets are a team on the rise and look very much like a viable side to back. Yes, I know the Pats are well rested, but that has not been a recipe for success for Bellichick and company going 1-10-1 ATS with rest. Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East. NY JETS are 37-21 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992. Play on NY Jets to cover |
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11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show | |
Detroit rallied last week from a 24-10 deficit to pull off a 31-30 win, the franchise's first victory after trailing by 14 or more points entering the fourth quarter since 1993. Now with momentum on their sides the Lions enter with confidence and Im betting will be prepared to battle again this week vs the Giants. The Lions' offense has been very efficient over the past three games, turning the ball over just once and must not be underestimated in the dog role. Visitor is 10-2 ATS in this series .Detroit is 8-3 non-division road dogs of 6 points or less. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 17-5 ATS after being out-gained by 75 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC. Campbell is 1-9 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992. NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 95-47 ATS L/39 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. DETROIT is 5-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS L/6 meetings.Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York. Play on Lions to cover |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers OVER 41 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Last week Aaron Rogers and the Packers looked rejuvenated with a OT win vs the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have suffered through an ugly start to their season, and has possibly help resurrect themselves behind rookie WR Christian Watson who came to the fore front as he produced some much needed forward momentum as he scored three touchdowns including 8 receptions ( 107 ypg) . Im betting on the Packers continuing to look downfield after last weeks successes and for a decent output vs a viable Titans D. However, on the flip-side the Packers D, has not been all that stable allowing 24, 27, 27, 23, 27, 28 points respectively 6 of their L/7 tilts. With the Tennessee being a run heavy side, and the Packers rankings 28th against the run, my points projection out projections look ready to be proven right. Note: Star RB Henry has been sub par this season , but will have a field day vs a side that allows 4.8 yards per carry.Im betting the Titans hit those above averages offensively and help get this game over the offered Total. My projections point to both sides putting 20plus points on the board. Note: TENNESSEE is 16-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 60.2 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 17-5 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 57.8 ppg scored in those 22 tilts. Vrabel is 8-1 OVER in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of TENNESSEE with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored. TENNESSEE is 20-8 OVER against NFC North division opponents since 1992 with a combined average of 51.3 ppg scored. Tennessee is 5-1 OVER L/6 vs NFC North and 8-3 OVER L/11 as non-conference road pups. LaFleur is 20-9 OVER after playing a game at home as the coach of GREEN BAY with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored. GB is 4-0 OVER off a win as an underdog and 3-0 OVER L3 vs Tennessee with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored and 7-0 OVER on Thursdays vs non-division opposition and 11-2 OVER in the 2nd of back to back home games. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (GREEN BAY/TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games are 144-88 OVER L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | 16-22 | Loss | -114 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
My own number on this total is 47 thus prompting to back recommending an over wager here. Im betting top tier QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Hebert take part in a back forth Sunday night event. LA Chargers have cashed on the OVER in 10 of their L/11 non division games when the Totals offering is 51 points or less with the average combined score clicking in at 60.1 ppg. Chargers are 4-0 OVER L/4 in back to back road games and 7-1 OVER vs NFC West and 12-4 OVER as division road dog of 3 points or more . SF is 6-1 OVER off road dog victory and 5-1 OVER off division road win and .8-2 OVER at home after allowing 14 points or less . These teams have combined to average of 59.2 ppg in their L/4 meetings Over is 10-4 in Chargers last 14 games overall. LA CHARGERS are 19-8 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 55.7 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 19-9 OVER after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.2 ppg scored. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the OVER |
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11-13-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -1.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 17 m | Show | |
Rams were shocked last week as with 35 seconds left on the clock Tom Brady engineered a come from behind victory with a TD that shocked and emotionally smacked the Rams down a few notches. Now in a rebound mode Im betting the redemption minded Rams come out here with their proverbial hair on fire and take down the visiting Cardinals. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Kingsbury is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games as the coach of ARIZONA. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-33 L/5 seasons a go against 92% conversion rate. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 2-29 L/5 seasons for 94% conversion rate. Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 in this series. Play on LA Rams to cover |
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11-13-22 | Texans +4.5 v. Giants | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 23 m | Show | |
I respect how well the Giants have played this season overall but they have a long history of playing down to their opposition. It must be noted that the Gmen have failed to cover 12 of their L/16 vs sub .150 struggling sides like the Texans. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10. Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 8-19 L/27 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games . Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. NFL Favorites (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 8-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFLRoad underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced are 60-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play on Texans to cover |
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11-13-22 | Lions +3 v. Bears | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 67 h 32 m | Show | |
According to my power rankings this game should be closer to a pickem even though the Bears have home field advantage thus giving us value with the road dog. DETROIT is 8-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North. CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North.Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bears are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. NFL team (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play on the Detroit Lions to cover |
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11-13-22 | Saints -1.5 v. Steelers | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 13 m | Show | |
The inconsistent Saints played their most complete game of the season when they beat visiting Las Vegas 24-0 two weeks ago and despite of a loss last week are more than capable of a bounce back vs a Pittsburgh side they matchup well against. Not betting on another shut out, but against a offense, which is averaging just 15 points per game and is tied for the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL (11) the Saints have a great opportunity for victory. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Saints are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous gam PITTSBURGH is 3-12 ATS L/15 against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season . NFL Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/39 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Saints to cover |
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11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 37 m | Show | |
Cleveland according to my power rankings despite of a sub .500 record is very under rated and deserve respect here as underdogs vs a Miami side that are ranked 15th in rushing yardage allowed per game this season. Look for Nick Chubb to do what other RBs have not done to the Dolphins and rush consistently and for more than 100 yards. Chubb is second only to Derrick Henry in rushing yards per game (105.1) and leads the league in rushing touchdowns, with 10. Chubb will be the difference maker . Miami is 0-7 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. MIAMI is 6-21 ATS in home games after a win by 3 or less points .MIAMI is 16-30 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate. NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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11-13-22 | Jaguars +10 v. Chiefs | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
Jacksonville is improving as is evident by winning the stats battles in 5 of 9 games this season and off a SU win last week and are capable of competing here vs a KC team in a letdown situation after QB Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards last week. Im now bettong on regression from the KC QB and his team. Note: KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 1-16 ATS L/17 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games . Reid is 1-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY. NFL favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks v. Bucs -2.5 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 64 h 7 m | Show | |
Last time out future HOF QB Brady went on a , 60-yard drive with under 40 seconds left of last week’s victory vs the Rams and in doing so showed us you can never count him or his team out of any game. I know the Buccaneers opponents today the Seahawks have won 4 straight, su and ATS but they are an over rated bunch in my humble opinion and the lines-makers look like they agree with my assessment. It must be noted Brady is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral field and is now motivated to get his team back to .500. Look for the super star to be primed to perform on an international stage and to help his team to a win and cover over Pete Carroll and company. Buccaneers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. TAMPA BAY is 11-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive losses including pushes against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Tampa Bay to cover |
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11-07-22 | Ravens -1.5 v. Saints | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 49 m | Show | |
The Saints are off a top tier 24-0 effort last time out vs a very inconsistent Raiders team. However it must be noted that NFL teams off a shutout home win are just 1-4 ATS/SU L/5 opportunities dating back 37 seasons. Also the Saints have proven themselves very inconsistent this season, losing 5 of 8 games. Allen is 3-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached and is vulnerable to a letdown scenario here. NEW ORLEANS is also just 9-22 ATS L/31 against AFC North division opponents . Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS in road games against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE. Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 31-3 L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS under the Monday night lights of prime time action, Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS on Monday night away tilts. Play on Baltimore to win /cover |
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11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 42.5 | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
.These two sides in head to head action have taken part in some high scoring tilts with the last five meetings going over the set total with a combined average of , 65.4 combined ppg registering on the scoreboard. Im betting two hungry sides who need to get untracked go after each other from the get fo today and contribute to a higher scoring affair than the data might project. Note: The Rams were off their Bye last Sunday before their defeat to the 49ers at home. Despite of being well rested the Rams lost . NFL sides like the Rams have gone over 7 straight times when off a SU/ATS home chalk loss after their Bye Week. Another interesting trend: Tampa goes to Europe next week . Dating back 17 seasons, non-division NFC sides before playing in a neutral site tilt like the Bucs will the total has been eclipsed , 20 of 22 times , when the Total offering is between 39 and 49.5 points . Bowles is 12-2 OVER in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER in road games off a division game as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER as a road underdog as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 55.5 ppg scored. TB is 5-0 L/5 vs NFC West. Play OVER |
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11-06-22 | Rams +3 v. Bucs | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 69 h 7 m | Show | |
Future HOF QB Brady and the Buccaneers are no longer to be feared as is evident by their sub par play so far this season. Brady has averaged a substandard 6.7 yards per attempt and the offense is tied for 25th in third-down efficiency (34.6 percent). TAMPA BAY is 9-21 ATS in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS in games played on a grass field this season. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS in games played on a grass field this season which was the case last time out. After a negative outing vs the SF 49ers last /Sunday the defending Super Bowl Champs will be in redemption and bounce back mode and are very dangerous. Sean McVay is 10-5 ATS as a road dog and 10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS i vs NFC South opposition , including cashing and winning 3 straight as a dog. The Rams’ also own a 8-1 ATS series record vs the Bucs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Tampa Bay. Small non-Division Away Pup (+5 or less points) if they lost their last game as a Home Dog/pk and scored 20 points or less are 24-2 ATS . Rams qualify. NFL team vs the money line (TAMPA BAY) - poor rushing team - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rams |
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11-06-22 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 49 m | Show | |
The Buffalo D ranked 1st in the NFL is staunch to say the least allowing an average of 14 ppg overall and have seen their 6 of their 7 games games stay under the total and all 4 of their home games with a combined average of 43.6 ppg go on the score board while allowing an average of 9.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Jets defense ranked 6th in the league has allowed 19.5 ppg in division games and 13.7 ppg in their L/3 games overall with all going under the set total. AFC East division confrontations have gone 4-21 UNDER L/10 seasons and have gone under 16 of their L/18 dating back 5 season when the Host side is an underdog of +3.5 or more points . NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite 23-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 46 | 29-17 | Push | 0 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
The Eagles defense (allowing 16.9 ppg) ranks second in DVOA against the pass and in no way will the Texans game plan be based on play option, rather, Im betting it will focus on making this into a sleep fest with a slow deliberate ground attack. Note: Texans QB Mills ranks 29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt in the league among starting QBs. Meanwhile, on the flip-side the Texans have been viable in their secondary, ranking 17th in DVOA vs the pass , so the explosive Eagles run attack will be put into primary action vs a porous Houston run D. What Im expecting here is for a run heavy game to take place, and for it to be grinding in nature which will aid us in my recommendation that we take an under stance here on this Totals offering. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games in November. Under is 10-4 in Texans last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Thursday night NFC sides like Philly in away tilts vs AFC opp like Houston have gone under 10 of the L/12 times with the average combined ppg averaging 35.6 . Thursday non-division away sides like the Eagles off 2 consecutive SU/ATS wins have gone under 8 straight times. Thursday night pups like the Texans off a SU/ATS division loss have gone under 7 straight times since the 2016 campaign. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 68-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-30-22 | Packers +11.5 v. Bills | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 22 m | Show | |
Oh how far the mighty have fallen. Biblical proportions have been attached to line and the perception of the public and the lines-makers ability to play into that concept. Right now Rodgers and company are no longer feared by their opponents and the betting public has abandoned them for their new darlings the Buffalo Bills. NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 15-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. Play on Green Bay to cover |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1.5 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 10 m | Show | |
The defending Super Bowl Champs are not getting alot of respect here , probably based on their 24-9 loss on the road in San Francisco in early October. However, now in revenge mode, Im betting on this sleepy looking Rams side to come out their coma here with a top tier effort. McVay is 10-2 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS. NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 49-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 7-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (LA RAMS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more are 24-1 L/39 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Rams to cover |
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10-30-22 | Panthers +4.5 v. Falcons | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 73 h 33 m | Show | |
Atlantas positive ATS record according to my data is skewed in comparison to the the fact they have been out-gained in each of their last six trips to the gridiron. Thats not a good omen for a team that has failed to cover 11 of their L/15 as home favs. ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and despite of Carolina not having a solid record still beat TB last week and were gritty in a loss to the Rams in their previous game. Carolina has won their last two visits here and don't be surprised if a rinse and repeat situation rears it ugly head in this spot play. NFL Road underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 10-35 ATS 39 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate. Take the points with Carolina to cover |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals v. Vikings OVER 49 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show | |
These teams secondaries look weak at best. The Vikings rank 28th in passing defense giving up an average 272 ypg while Cardinals rank 25th in give up an average of /260 ypg . With two more than capable QBs playing today (Murray vs Cousins) Im expecting a wide open down field affair with plenty of points going on the board. The Vikings are on fresh legs off a bye which sets up well for a all out attack. Note: NFC home favorites after their Bye Week going against another NFC opponent like the Cards when the Totals offering is 51 or less points have gone over 20 of the L/22 dating back to the 2016 season. NFL sides with a .800 record or better as home favs of 6 points or less like the Vikings going against a less than .500 side like the Cards , when the Totals offering comes in at between 45 to 54 points has gone over 14 straight times dating back to the 2014 campaign. Minnesota has gone over the total in 15 of their L/20 home tilts including going over in 9 of 10 with a 49 or more totals offering from the books. The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 55 ppg go on the board. Play on the OVER |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs +1.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 12 m | Show | |
Is Tom Brady finally starting to show his age? Well to an extent he has been for a while, but even at 75% of where he was the future HOF QB is still better than most QBs in this league and deserves respect . The Bucs lost last week and look lost in the process , but after all the negative press are ready to reap redemption on a national stage this Thursday night. . Lets look at what Brady bring to the table in a situation like this.... He is 10-0 SU/ATS in his NFL career with a sub .500 record and coming off a SU defeat . While the Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS L/4 overall and 0-5-1 ATS in Thursday night road game . Until Tommy shows me he is toast Im betting he will be the difference maker here today and motivating factor behind a Bucs rebound.Ravens are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play on Tampa Bay to cover |
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10-24-22 | Bears +8.5 v. Patriots | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 129 h 40 m | Show | |
The Bears 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night road games have finally figured out that any success they will have this season wont come on the back of QB Justin Fields. Thus Im expecting a continued run heavy attack from the Bears and for their staunch defense to stand tall. Note: The Bears rushing attack has big-play potential, ranking second in rush yards per game (170) and seventh in rushing average (5.2 yards per rush).With that said I will back them getting more than a TD on the road here in this prime time event . NFL Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 9-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate. Play on Bears to cover |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs -3 v. 49ers | 44-23 | Win | 100 | 102 h 34 m | Show | |
KC QB Mahomes is in bounce back and redemption mode this week after throwing a late interception last week and falling short vs Josh Allan and Buffalo . The top tier QB is still high in the NFL QB standing with a passer rating of at least 100 and is tied for the league lead with 17 touchdown passes and capable of a big effort . Considering the 49ers are banged up on both offense and defense they are in trouble. The Niners also have alot of walking wounded who if they play are less than 100% i.e( Left tackle Trent Williams and defensive end Nick Bosa ) Advantage Chiefs. 49ers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 7. Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. NFL Underdogs -SU (SAN FRANCISCO) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 1-25 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS line offering. Play on Kansas City to cover |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers UNDER 48.5 | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 13 m | Show | |
Chiefs QB Mahomes and company are explosive offensively but they go against a SF side that are allowing just 255 yards per game and 14.9 ppg which gives them the No.1 rank in the league defensively. Meanwhile the 49ers Im betting will also want to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible and grind away with their ground game in effort to slow this game down to a grinding affair . All in all I expect this tilt to be lower scoring than the lines-makers and pundits expect. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. SF is 2-12 UNDER L/14 dating back to last season. Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games following a straight up loss which was the case last time out. NFL Home teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with combined average of 40.4 ppg game. Play UNDER |