06-19-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BAL@TOR to go OVER the total.
The Blue Jays are rolling, wining 13 of their last 15 overall. They lead the majors in scoring by a "country mile", and they should continue to put runs on the board tonight against a struggling Baltimore pitcher.
Mike Wright will toe the slab for Baltimore, and he's been hit hard in his last two starts. Wright (2-2, 4.13 ERA) allowed five runs on six hits and three walks over four innings in a home loss to the Yankees his last time out. Prior to that he allowed five runs on eight hits over five innings in a loss at Houston.
The Jays hand the ball to Marco Estrada, who surrendered more home runs than any other pitcher in the majors last year. Estrada (4-3, 4.24 ERA) allowed five runs on seven hits over five innings in a win at Boston his last time out. He's won three straight starts, despite allowing 11 runs on 20 hits in those games.
Toronto is 20-7 in it's last 27 home games, and they've scored a major league best 108 runs so far in June. That's 20 more than the Orioles, who have scored the second most since June 1.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-19-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. New York Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on DET@NYY to go OVER the total.
The Detroit Tigers are gearing up for a heavyweight battle versus the New York Yankees in the Bronx tonight. I think we should see these two teams put some runs on the board in a slugfest at Yankee Stadium.
Justin Verlander will toe the slab for the Tigers, and he's making just his second start of the season. He was pretty average in his first start since returning from injury, giving up a pair of runs in five innings. He's seen his ERA rising steadily over the last few seasons, and I think his days of putting up ace type numbers are over.
The Yankees hand the ball to Adam Warren, who has had success at home this season. He's facing Miguel Cabrera tonight though, and the Tigers slugger will have some help from his buddy Victor Martinez.
Alex Rodriguez is looking to join the 3000 hit club, and he's batting .357 with four home runs lifetime versus Verlander.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-18-15 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
17 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TB@WAS to go UNDER the total.
The Rays are back in first place in the AL East, and it's no thanks to their offense. Only the White Sox and the Mariners have scored fewer runs than Tampa in the American League, but Tampa has been depending on it's pitching to win games. Last night's 5-0 shutout victory in Washington was their fifth win in six games, and they look good again tonight with their ace on the mound.
Chris Archer will toe the rubber for the Rays, and he's been dealing lately. Archer (7-4, 2.00 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits over seven innings in a home win over the White Sox his last time out. He's been better on the road than he has been at home, with a record of 5-0 with a 0.51 ERA in five starts away from Tropicana Field.
The Nats hand the ball to Doug Fister, who makes his first start since coming back from a forearm injury. Fister (2-2, 4.31 ERA) hasn't pitched since May 14, and was 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in three starts at home prior to landing on the DL.
Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman are out of the lineup for Washington, leaving them with a thin lineup.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-16-15 |
Oakland A's v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on OAK@SD to go OVER the total. San Diego's PETCO Park has a reputation as a pitcher's park, and prior to this year there have been fewer runs scored at San Diego than in any other park in the majors since 2012. That trend has turned upside down here in 2015, with ESPN's Park Factor showing PETCO ranking as more of a hitter's park so far. Still we see an astronomically low total for today's game, and my money is on this over trend to continue here as both these teams rank in the top 10 in the majors in runs scored.
Scott Kazmir will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's coming off a dominant performance in his last start. Kazmir (3-4, 2.79 ERA) tossed eight scoreless innings surrendering just one hit in a home win over Texas. He had been 0-4 in his previous six starts, and hasn't pitched as well on the road as he has at home.
The Padres will counter with Andrew Cashner, who has really been a disappointment this season. Cashner (2-8, 4.16 ERA) allowed four runs on seven hits over 6 2/3 innings in a loss at Atlanta his last time out. He's actually been worse at home than he has been on the road, with a record of 0-5 with a 3.52 ERA in five starts at PETCO. The Padres have seen nine of their last 11 home games go over the total, and seven of their last nine versus Oakland have gone over. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
06-15-15 |
Oakland A's v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 |
|
9-1 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on OAK@SD to go OVER the total. San Diego's PETCO Park has a reputation as a pitcher's park, and prior to this year there have been fewer runs scored at San Diego than in any other park in the majors since 2012. That trend has turned upside down here in 2015, with ESPN's Park Factor showing PETCO ranking as more of a hitter's park so far. Still we see an astronomically low total for tonight's game, and my money is on this over trend to continue here with an improved San Diego offense getting a crack at a struggling Oakland pitcher.
Jesse Hahn will toe the slab for the A's, and he failed to get out of the fourth inning in his last start. Hahn (3-5, 3.84 ERA) allowed four runs on seen hits and two walks in a no decision at Texas. The former Padre is 1-4 with a 5.27 ERA in eight starts under the lights this season, and he has only one win in seven starts on the road.
San Diego will hand the ball to Tyson Ross, who has had a disappointing season so far. Ross (3-6, 3.81 ERA) allowed three runs on nine hits and a pair of walks over six innings in a loss at Atlanta his last time out. He's 2-3 with a 4.34 ERA in five starts at home so far.
The Padres have seen eight of their last 10 home games go over the total, and six of their last eight versus Oakland have gone over.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-04-15 |
New York Mets v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8 |
|
6-2 |
Push |
0 |
21 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on NYM@ARI to go OVER the total. The #Mets will play Game 1 of a four game set at#Arizona on Thursday, and we've seen plenty of runs scored at Chase Field lately. The D'Backs have seen the total go over in six straight, and they won two of three at home versus Atlanta, despite being out-scored 22-17. The Mets send their ace to the mound here in the series opener, but I still think we'll see a slugfest in the desert. Matt #Harvey will toe the slab for the Mets, and he's been roughed up in back to back losses. Harvey (5-3, 3.11 ERA) allowed four runs on six hits over eight innings in a home loss to Miami his last time out. Prior to that he was lit up for seven runs on six hits and two walks in just four innings in a loss at Pittsburgh. The D'Backs hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson, who has won consecutive starts. Hellickson (3-3, 5.08 ERA) allowed two runs on five hits over six innings in a win over the Brewers his last time out. The Mets have seen the total go over in eight of their last 10, and the total has trended over at a rate of 12-2-2 in the last 16 games at Chase Field. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
06-02-15 |
New York Mets v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYM@SD to go OVER the total.
Once again we saw a slugfest in San Diego last night. #PETCO has a reputation as a pitcher's park, and prior to this year there have been fewer runs scored at San Diego than in any other park in the majors since 2012. That trend has turned upside down here in 2015, with #ESPN's Park Factor showing PETCO ranking as a hitter's park so far. There have been more runs scored at PETCO than at Fenway, Wrigley and the Ballpark in Arlington. Still we see an astronomically low total for tonight's game, and my money is on this over trend to continue here with an improved San Diego offense getting a crack at an inexperienced pitcher.
Noah Syndergaard will toe the slab for the Mets, and he's been far better at home than he has been on the road. Syndergaard (2-2, 1.82 ERA) has allowed seven runs on 12 hits over 11 1/3 innings in two starts away from Citi Field, both losses.
The Padres hand the ball to Ian Kennedy, who hasn't been that impressive. Kennedy (2-5, 7.15 ERA) was torched for seven runs on seven hits over just 3 2/3 innings in a home loss to the Pirates his last time out. He also gave up three home runs and walked a pair in that game. He's given up a total of 23 runs over his last four home starts, losing three of those games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-01-15 |
Atlanta Braves v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8 |
Top |
8-1 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@ARI to go OVER the total.
The Braves are coming off back to back wins in San Francisco, and they scored 15 runs in those two victories. They play Game 1 of a new series at Chase Field in Arizona tonight, and this ballpark has a reputation as a hitter's paradise. I don't trust either of these two starting pitchers, and I am expecting a slugfest in the desert tonight.
Alex Wood will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's coming off consecutive wins. Wood (3-2, 3.50 ERA) allowed one run on seven hits and a pair of walks over seven innings in a win over the Dodgers his last time out. While he's been lucky to pick up a couple of wins, he hasn't really pitched well in either of those games. He put nine runners on base in each of those games, and that's not going to be a recipe for success moving forward. In fact that's likely why he was winless in six straight previously.
The D'Backs hand the ball to Archie Bradley, who has been rocked in three straight appearances. Bradley (2-2, 5.28 ERA) was off to a great start before getting hit in the head with a line drive. He missed about two weeks, and has since been torched for 14 runs on 19 hits over just 10 2/3 innings in three starts.
He doesn't go deep into ballgames at the best of times, and that could spell trouble for a bullpen that worked the majority of a 17 inning marathon in Milwaukee yesterday.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-31-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@MIN to go OVER the total.
The Jays and the Twins have split the first two of this three game set at Target Field, and I am expecting a slugfest in the finale today.
Drew Hutchison will toe the slab for the Jays, coming off a complete game shutout in his last start. Hutchison (4-1, 5.12 ERA) hasn't had much success on the road though, with an ERA of 8.03 in five starts away from Rogers Center. His day/night splits are also alarming, as he owns a 6.86 ERA in four starts in afternoon games this season. He was 3-7 with a 5.46 ERA in 11 starts in day games last season.
The Twins hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco, who also has a history of struggling in the day. Nolasco (5-1, 5.12 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits over seven innings in a 7-2 win over the Red Sox his last time out. He's 3-1 with a rather swollen 6.53 ERA in four starts in the afternoon this season, which is an improvement from last year when he was 2-7 with a 7.78 ERA in 11 starts in day games.
The Blue Jays are still the highest scoring team in the majors, and by a wide margin. The return of Jose Reyes makes them even more dangerous offensively, and Reyes has hit .342 in five games since coming off the DL. He's owned Nolasco in his career, hitting .346 with four home runs and six RBIs in 58 at bats.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-29-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Diego Padres OVER 6 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on PIT@SD to go OVER the total. The Pirates hammered the Padres at PETCO last night, and once again we saw a slugfest in San Diego. PETCO has a reputation as a pitcher's park, and prior to this year there have been fewer runs scored at San Diego than in any other park in the majors since 2012. That trend has turned upside down here in 2015, with ESPN's Park Factor showing PETCO ranking as a hitter's park so far. There have been more runs scored at PETCO than at Fenway, Wrigley and the Ballpark in Arlington. Still we see an astronomically low total for tonight's game, and my money is on this over trend to continue here with an improved San Diego offense getting a crack at a struggling Pirates pitcher.
Francisco Liriano will toe the slab for the Pirates, and he's not been very consistent this season. Liriano (2-4, 3.86 ERA) allowed one run on six hits and a pair of walks over six innings in a 9-1 win over the Mets his last time out. He hasn't been very good under the lights, going 0-4 with a 6.49 ERA in five starts at night. That's a trend that holds true over the last three seasons as well. He was 0-2 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts versus San Diego last year.
The Padres hand the ball to James Shields, who has yet to suffer a defeat this season. Shields (6-0, 3.75 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits over seven innings in an 11-3 win over the Dodgers his last time out. As successful as he's been this season, he hasn't exactly been flawless. He can't count on his bullpen as the Padres relievers rank 25th out of 30 major league clubs with an ERA of 4..24. Take OVER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
05-29-15 |
Washington Nationals v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 7.5 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@CIN to go OVER the total.
The Reds are reeling, coming into Game 1 of this home series versus Washington as losers of 10 of their last 11. The Nats on the other hand have been tearing the cover off the ball, and we should be in for another slugfest in Cincinnati tonight.
Stephen Strasburg will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's been just brutal lately. Strasburg (3-5, 6.50 ERA) was torched for six runs on seven hits over 3 2/3 innings in a loss at home to Philly his last time out. He's now surrendered 17 runs on 20 hits over 12 innings in his last three starts. "Yeah, it's frustrating," Strasburg said. "I'm not pitching to my ability, but I've got to keep grinding." Making matters worse, he's 1-1 with a 5.50 ERA in three career starts against Cincinnati.
The Reds hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani, who has also struggled for the most part. He's 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA at home this season. He won't get much help from the bullpen, as Cincinnati's relievers rank among the worst in the majors.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-27-15 |
Colorado Rockies v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8 |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on COL@CIN to go OVER the total.
The Reds ended a nine game losing skid with a 2-1 win over the Rockies last night, but they might struggle to make it two in a row here this afternoon. Neither of today's starters inspire much confidence, but Mike Leake has been really roughed up recently.
Leake (2-3, 4.14 ERA) allowed five runs on seven hits and five walks in just four innings in a loss at Cleveland his last time out. Prior to that he was torched for nine runs on 11 hits in five innings in a home loss to the Giants. He's always struggled in Cincinnati, where he's 0-1 with a 6.08 ERA in four starts this season. Not only are his home numbers poor, his day night splits are even more alarming. This will be his first start in the afternoon this season, but he's 9-10 with a 4.63 ERA in 28 starts in day games since 2012.
The Rockies hand the ball to Kyle Kendrick, who hasn't impressed at all this season. Kendrick (1-6, 6.58 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits and three walks over 6 1/3 innings in a home loss to San Francisco his last time out.
Neither of these two starters are likely to go deep into this ballgame, and these two bullpens rank 28th and 29th respectively out of 30 major league clubs.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-26-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8.5 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-107 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on TEX@CLE to go OVER the total. The Rangers rolled into Cleveland as winners of five straight, and while the Tribe had won six in a row prior to Game 1, something had to give on Memorial Day. Texas came out on top in a slugfest, out-scoring the Indians 10-8. I expect to see a similar result here tonight in Cleveland.
Wandy Rodriguez will toe the slab for Texas, and he's coming off a solid outing on the road. Rodriguez (2-2, 3.38 ERA) allowed one run on four hits over 6 2/3 innings in a win over Boston at Fenway. Cleveland roughed him up in Texas prior to that, tagging him for five runs on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings in a blowout loss.
The Indians hand the ball to Danny Salazar, who has won three straight starts. Salazar (5-1, 3.50 ERA) struck out eight over six scoreless innings in a win at Chicago his last time out. His ERA in day games is less than half of what it is at night, and that's a trend that holds true throughout his career.
The Rangers lineup is batting .318 versus Salazar, with most of the damage coming in a 10-8 Cleveland victory in Arlington on the 16th of this month. He surrendered seven runs on nine hits over 4 2/3 innings in that game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-24-15 |
Minnesota Twins v. Chicago White Sox OVER 8.5 |
|
8-1 |
Win
|
110 |
9 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on MIN@CWS to go OVER the total. The Twins have won three of four on this road trip, and they've split the first two games here in Chicago. I expect to see plenty of runs in the rubber match here on Sunday.
Kyle Gibson will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's coming off a loss at home in his last start. Gibson (3-3, 2.89 ERA) allowed three runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in just five innings in a loss to Tampa. He's 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA in four starts on the road, and he's been hit even harder in day games, going 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA.
The White Sox hand the ball to Jose Quintana, who hasn't been consistent at all this season. Quintana (2-4, 4.13 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on eight hits and four walks over seven innings in a home win over Cleveland his last time out. He was fortunate the Indians weren't able to cash in on all the baserunners. He's been torched for 11 runs on 14 hits over nine innings in his only two starts in day games so far.
Torii Hunter hit a home run yesterday, and he's 10-for-26 lifetime versus Quintana.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-21-15 |
Chicago Cubs v. San Diego Padres OVER 7 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-116 |
15 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on CHC@SD to go OVER the total. The Padres beat the #Cubs by a score of 4-3 at#PETCO in Game 1 of this series, and then suffered a 3-2 loss in the second game last night. While we've always thought of it as a pitcher's park, nine of the last 12 games at PETCO have gone over the total. Despite that trend, we see another low number in tonight's game, with a couple of below average pitcher's on the mound. Odrisamer Despaigne will toe the slab for San Diego, and he was absolutely obliterated in his last home start. Despaigne (2-2, 6.75 ERA) was torched for seven runs on 10 hits and two walks over just three innings in a loss to Washington. He's now surrendered 19 runs on 24 hits over 9 2/3 innings in his last three appearances. The Cubs hand the ball to a 25 year old right-hander still in search of his first win of the season. Kyle Henrdricks (0-1, 5.15 ERA) allowed five runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings in a no decision versus the Pirates his last time out. If these two struggling starters are better than expected, then we can still count on two of the worst bullpens in the national league to give up a few runs in the later innings. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
05-20-15 |
Chicago Cubs v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-130 |
21 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHC@SD to go OVER the total.
The Padres beat the Cubs by a score of 4-3 at PETCO last night, and while we've always thought of it as a pitcher's park, nine of the last 11 games at PETCO have gone over the total. Despite that trend, we see another low number in tonight's game, and a couple of mediocre pitcher's on the mound.
Tyson Ross will toe the slab for the Padres, and he's been inconsistent so far. Ross (2-3, 3.94 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits and three walks over five innings in an 8-3 home win over the Nats his last time out. He's 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA in three starts at home.
Tsuyoshi Wada will get the call for the Cubs, and he's making his first start of the season. The 34 year old comes up from Triple-A Iowa to fill in for Travis Wood. Wada has not been so hot on the road, going 0-3 with a 3.81 ERA in five starts last season.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-19-15 |
Chicago Blackhawks v. Anaheim Ducks OVER 5 |
|
3-2 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NHL play on CHI@ANA to go OVER the total. The Blackhawks out-shot the Ducks 25-15 through the first two periods of Game 1, and the home team was quite fortunate to go into the second intermission with a two goal lead. Frederik Andersen stopped 32-of-33 shots overall, facing more rubber in Game 1 of this series than he saw in any previous playoff game. Chicago isn't going to let up here in Game 2, and I think they'll put at least a couple past Andersen. That might not be enough though, as Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf are likely to make life difficult for Corey Crawford as well. The Ducks have only seen fewer than five goals twice in 10 games this post-season, and these two teams have combined to score at least five goals in five of the last seven head to head meetings. Chicago has seen the total go over at a rate of 6-0-1 in their last seven Conference Finals games. These are two of the best offensive teams in the league, and we could see a bit of a barn burner in California tonight. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
05-17-15 |
Washington Nationals v. San Diego Padres OVER 7.5 |
Top |
10-5 |
Win
|
118 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@SD to go OVER the total.
The Padres are used to playing low scoring games at PETCO, which is known to be the most notorious pitcher's park in all of baseball. That hasn't been the case lately, with 11 of their last 14 home games going over the total.
Stephen Strasburg will toe the slab for the visiting Nationals today, and he's one of the biggest name pitchers in the majors. His numbers don't live up to the hype this season, as he's 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA. He's been bothered by a shoulder injury, and he was rocked for eight runs on eight hits over just 3 1/3 innings in a loss at Arizona his last time out.
The Padres hand the ball to Ian Kennedy, who is also coming off a terrible performance. Kennedy (2-2, 5.92 ERA) was torched for five runs on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to Seattle his last time out. He owns a 7.11 ERA in three starts at PETCO this season, and he was just 6-6 with a 3.93 ERA in 17 starts in San Diego last year.
The Nationals bats have been on fire in recent weeks, and I don't like Kennedy's chances of slowing them down.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-17-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 220 |
|
100-113 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on LAC@HOU to go UNDER the total.
All six games in this series have gone over the total, so it's no surprise that the public is blindly throwing money at the over, despite an enormous number. The opening total for this game was astronomical, and early action pushed it up even higher. Now before this series started, these teams saw the total go under in all four meetings during the regular season. It's not like you can expect either team to ease up on defense in a "winner takes all" Game 7. Then you have a huge question mark surrounding the Rockets leading scorer James Harden, who sat out the fourth quarter of Game 6 with the flu. He's going to play, but he may not be 100% effective. Both teams are going to have to shoot out the lights in order to score more than 220 points, and that's not easy to do under the pressure of a seventh game.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-17-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ARI@PHI to go OVER the total.
The Phillies sit in last place in the NL East, and they rank dead last in the majors in runs scored. They have shown signs of life lately though, winning four straight prior to Sunday's game against Arizona.
Josh Collmenter will toe the slab for the D'Backs, and he's bee pretty bad on the road. Collmenter (3-4, 5.27 ERA) was torched for nine runs on eight hits in just 1 1/3 innings in a home loss to Washington his last time out. He's 0-1 with an 11.81 ERA in three appearances at Citizen's Bank Park over the last three seasons.
The Phillies hand the ball to Sean O'Sullivan, who is still in search of his first victory of the season. O'Sullivan (0-2, 5.06 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits over five innings in a 7-2 home loss to the Pirates his last time out. Chase Utley is 5-for-9 lifetime versus Collmenter.
Take OVER.
GL,
|
05-15-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Texas Rangers OVER 9 |
|
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on CLE@TEX to go OVER the total. The Texas Rangers struggles at home continued yesterday, losing to the Royals by a score of 6-3. They host the Indians in Game 1 of a new series tonight, and with a pair of struggling pitchers on the mound, it could be a slugfest.
Bruce Chen will toe the slab for the Tribe, and it will be just his second start of the season. Chen (0-1, 13.50 ERA) was rocked for six runs on 10 hits over four innings in a 7-4 home loss to the Twins in his debut. The veteran was let go by the Royals in the off-season, and picked up by Cleveland in a desperate move to fill a gap in the rotation. He was 9-14 with a 5.28 ERA in 29 starts on the road over the last three years.
The Rangers hand the ball to Wandy Rodriguez, who has been pretty decent so far for Texas. He's only had one start at home though, and that was his worst of the year. Rodriguez (1-1, 2.70 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits and five walks in just 4 1/3 innings in his lone start in Texas. I think this 36 year old veteran is going to have his struggles pitching at this hitter's park.
The Rangers bats have been hot lately, as they've scored an average of five runs per game over their last nine.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-13-15 |
Washington Nationals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 |
|
9-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on WAS@ARI to go OVER the total. The Nats and the D'Backs have combined to score 32 runs in the first two games of this three game set at Chase Field, and I think we can expect another slugfest in Arizona in the series finale this afternoon.
Gio Gonzalez will toe the slab for the Nats, and at first glance he looks like a pitcher you could be excited about. Gonzalez (3-2, 3.62 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits while fanning eight in seven innings in a win over the Braves his last time out. He's a former 20 game winner, and he's 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts versus Arizona over the last three seasons. The lefty though doesn't have great numbers in day games, with a record of 11-12 with a 4.15 ERA in the afternoon since 2012. The trend has held true again this season, with a record of 1-1 with an 8.18 ERA in two early starts so far.
The D'Backs hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson, who has pretty ugly numbers in all situations this season. Hellickson (1-3, .85 ERA) was torched for five runs on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings in a 6-5 home loss to San Diego his last time out. He's been lit up for 12 runs on 24 hits in 13 2/3 innings in three home starts this season.
Neither team has what you would call a reliable bullpen, but the D'Backs relievers have been particularly bad, with an ERA of 4.17, ranking 21st overall in the majors.
Take OVER.
|
05-11-15 |
Atlanta Braves v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@CIN to go UNDER the total. The Braves were swept in Washington over the weekend, and they begin a new series in Cincinnati on Monday night. We could see a pitcher's duel in this game, with a pair of hot starters facing off against each other.Shelby Miller will toe the slab for the Braves, and he's sporting some impressive numbers so far. Miller (4-1, 1.66 ERA) tossed a complete game shutout, striking out eight in a home win over the Phillies his last time out. His only loss of the season came against the Reds, but he pitched well in that game, allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits while fanning nine in seven innings. He's 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA in four starts at Cincinnati in his career.
The Reds hand the ball to Mike Leake, who is also coming off a win in his last start. Leake (2-1, 2.47 ERA) tossed eight scoreless innings in each of his last two starts, both of those on the road. He hasn't been as good at home, where he's winless with a 4.26 ERA in two starts this season. He has better numbers on the road than he does at home dating back the last three seasons.
Five of Leake's last six starts against the Braves have gone under the total. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-08-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 |
|
0-7 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on BOS@TOR to go OVER the total. The Blues Jays are still the highest scoring team in the majors, but they are four games back of the Yankees in the AL East. Poor pitching from both their starters as well as their bullpen has been a problem for Toronto, and they turn to another struggling starter here tonight. Aaron Sanchez will toe the slab for the Jays, and he's struggled with his command. Sanchez (2-2, 4.62 ERA) allowed two runs on four hits over 5 2/3 innings, but walked six in a win at Cleveland his last time out. He's walked 15 batters in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts, and has been fortunate to have won two of those games. I wouldn't count on him getting lucky if he puts men on base against Boston.
The Red Sox hand the ball to Wade Miley, who hasn't impressed in his first year with Boston. Miley (1-3, 7.15 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits over seven innings in a loss to the Yankees his last time out. He hasn't seen much of the Blue Jays, but he was torched for five runs on eight hits over 1 2/3 innings the last time he faced them.
Boston has seen the total go over in eight of it's last 10 on the road.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-06-15 |
Montreal Canadiens v. Tampa Bay Lightning UNDER 5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MTL@TB to go UNDER the total.
These teams scored just twice in regulation, and played a scoreless overtime period before Nikita Kucherov scored the game winner early in the second overtime period in Game 1. The Lightning won in a blowout in Montreal in Game 2 of this series, scoring six times on the best goaltender in the world. Carey Price previously had an off night in Game 5 of Montreal's first round series versus Ottawa, and responded with a shutout in Game 6. He's likely to bounce back with a far better effort here in Game 3, and you can expect Montreal to play a desperate brand of hockey in a game that they need to win. The Habs have only seen three of their eight games so far go over the total, while the Bolts have gone over the number just three times in nine games in these playoffs.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-06-15 |
New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the NYY@TOR to go OVER the total.
The Jays still sit dead last in the AL East, despite owning the highest scoring offense in the majors. They are still in striking distance though, only 4.5 games back of first place New York.
C.C. Sabathia will toe the slab for the Bronx Bombers, and he's still in search of his first win of the season. Sabathia (0-3, 5.40 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits and a pair of walks over six innings in a no decision at Boston his last time out. It was easily his best performance of the season, but one of his worst came in his season debut versus Toronto. The Jays tagged him for five runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings in that game.
The Jays hand the ball to Mark Buehrle, who hasn't had a lot of success against the New York. Buehrle (3-2, 6.75 ERA) is coming off back to back road losses. He's been better at home, where he's 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA. He was 0-4 with a 6.73 ERA in four starts versus the Yankees last year, but three of those games were played in the Bronx.
Both these veterans have had impressive careers, but neither one of them looks great in this spot.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-05-15 |
Washington Wizards v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 197.5 |
Top |
90-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@ATL to go OVER the total.
The Hawks looked like they would run away with Game 1, but all of a sudden they came out in the second half and couldn't make a shot to save their lives. It sure didn't look like it was a case of Washington's defense shutting them down, as they were simply missing open looks. The Hawks led by double digits at halftime (63-53), with both teams pushing the pace of the game. The Hawks won three of four against the Wizards during the regular season, and the only loss came at Washington in a game that they rested their starters. All four games were high scoring affairs, and the total has gone over in seven straight when the Wizards visit Atlanta. I don't think the Wizards can count on another meltdown late in this game, and Atlanta should tie the series here tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-03-15 |
Los Angeles Angels v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on LAA@SF to go OVER the total.
A few years back, you would say that a game featuring Tim Lincecum and Jered Weaver would be destined to be a pitcher's duel. That's not the case here this season though, as both these starters appear to be be well past their prime.
Weaver (0-3, 5.83 ERA) was torched for six runs on six hits over six innings in a loss at Oakland his last time out. The word is that his fastball is topping off in the low 80s, and the result so far has been that he's getting hit pretty hard. He surrendered a pair of home runs in the loss to the A's, and he's now been taken deep six times in five starts.
Lincecum (1-2, 3.27 ERA) allowed four runs on eight hits over four innings in a loss to the Dodgers his last time out. He's been struggling to stay in the rotation in San Francisco the last few years, and a lack of control is one of his biggest problems.
The Angels have seen the total go over in 10 of Weaver's last 11 starts as an underdog on the road.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-03-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8 |
Top |
7-10 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go OVER the total.
The Blues Jays exploded for 11 runs in Game 3 of this series in Cleveland, and we've now seen the two teams combine to score 34 runs in three games. The total for Sunday's finale is sitting at 8 even, despite an overwhelming over trend for Toronto. It's not just that the Jays lead the league in runs scored, they've also allowed more runs than any other team. It's no surprise that 10 of their last 14 road games have gone over the total.
Drew Hutchison will toe the rubber for the Jays this afternoon, and nine of his last 11 road starts have seen the total go over. Hutchison (2-0, 6.67 ERA) was torched for six runs on nine hits over just four innings in a no decision at Boston his last time out. He doesn't have a great track record in day games, going 3-7 with a 5.46 ERA in 11 starts in the afternoon last season.
The Indians hand the ball to Trevor Bauer, who has struggled with his command. Bauer (2-0, 1.80 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits over six innings in an 11-5 home loss to Kansas City his last time out. He's given out 13 free passes over 25 innings in his four starts this season.
Six of Cleveland's last seven home games have gone over the number, and that trend seems likely to continue Sunday.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-02-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 204 |
|
109-111 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on SA@LAC to go UNDER the total.
The Spurs blew their chance to close out this series at home in Game 6 in San Antonio on Thursday. They'll have one last chance tonight at the Staples Center, and they haven't had too much trouble in L.A. in this series, winning 2-of-3. While Game 5 went over the total, the other two games in L.A. failed to reach the total in regulation (Game 2 went to overtime). The Clippers have seen a trend of low scoring games at the Staples Center, with 10 of their last 14 home games failing to reach the number. We should see both teams playing all out on defense here in this do or die game, and the total is pretty high, well over 200. These teams failed to score 200 points in Games 1, 3, 5, and I don't think either team will concede any easy points tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-02-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Cleveland Indians OVER 7.5 |
Top |
11-4 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go OVER the total.
The Blues Jays lead the majors in runs scored, but their pitching has let them down. They lost 9-4 to Cleveland yesterday, and they sit last in the AL East. With a couple of struggling pitchers on the mound Saturday, it could be another slugfest in Cleveland.
Corey Kluber will toe the slab for the Tribe, and he's coming off consecutive disappointing performances. Kluber (0-3, 4.24 ERA) allowed six runs on 10 hits over 6 1/3 innings in a loss to Kansas City his last time out. Prior to that he was torched for six runs on 13 hits over six innings in a loss to Chicago.
The Jays hand the ball to Aaron Sanchez, and the rookie hasn't been missing many bats so far. Sanchez (1-2, 5.03 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits and a pair of walks over 5 2/3 innings in a 6-5 loss at Boston his last time out. He's really struggled with his command, walking 14 batters in 19 2/3 innings so far.
The bullpen is another issue for the Jays, ranking dead last in the majors with an ERA of 4.99. The total for this game looks incredibly low considering, and I think that can only be a result of Kluber's Cy Young season last year. He's not the same pitcher at the moment though, and he's facing a formidable lineup.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-01-15 |
New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox OVER 8.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
17 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYY@BOS to go OVER the total.
The Yankees are still in first place in the AL East, but the Red Sox are only one game back. Boston will be looking to erase that deficit here at home tonight in Game 1 of this series at Fenway. With two struggling pitchers on the mound, we should see plenty of runs.
C.C. Sabathia will toe the slab for the Yankees, and the veteran appears to be on his last legs. Sabathia (0-4, 5.96 ERA) was rocked for seven runs on nine hits over five innings in an 8-2 loss to the Mets his last time out. He's lost all four of his starts, and he's been absolutely crushed at Fenway in recent visits. He owns an 8.06 ERA in four starts in Boston since 2012.
The Red Sox hand the ball to Justin Masterson, who has also given up his fair share of runs. Masterson (2-0, 5.16 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits over seven innings in a no decision versus Baltimore his last time out. The Red Sox have won three of his four starts, but not because he pitched well.
Hanley Ramirez is tied for the major league lead with 10 home runs and 22 RBIs, and he's likely to add to that total tonight, as Sabathia was taken yard three times in his last start.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-29-15 |
Portland Trailblazers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 190 |
Top |
93-99 |
Loss |
-108 |
22 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on POR@MEM to go UNDER the total. The Grizzlies fumbled in the fourth quarter in Portland in Game 4, blowing a late lead and allowing the Blazers to stay on life support in this series. They head back home to Memphis tonight though, and they've owned the Blazers at the FedEx Forum. Portland has lost eight straight visits to Memphis, and they didn't cover in any of those games. The Grizzlies defense has smothered the Blazers, holding them to an average of just 84 points in Games 1 & 2. The total for tonight's game is higher than it was in both the previous two games in Memphis, despite the fact that the Grizzlies have seen the total go under in 24 of their last 27 home games. History tells us to expect a low scoring affair in Game 5, and I think the Grizzlies will close out the Blazers with their defense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-29-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on TOR@BOS to go OVER the total. It was yet another slugfest in Boston last night, with the Jays coming out on top by a score of 11-8. This series features three of the top five home run hitters in the American League so far, with Devin Travis, Jose Bautista and Hanley Ramirez. Joey Bats and Ramirez each went yard in last night's game, and I see no reason why we won't see more fireworks here in Game 3.
R.A. Dickey will toe the slab for the Jays, and he comes in struggling. Dickey (0-2, 5.25 ERA) was torched for eight runs on nine hits over 4 2/3 innings in a loss at Tampa his last time out. He's surrendered four home runs in his last two starts, and that's a bad sign heading into a game at hitter friendly Fenway.
The Red Sox hand the ball to Rick Porcello, who has also been hit hard in recent starts. Porcello (1-2, 6.48 ERA) was rocked for four runs on six hits in six innings, but managed to get a no decision at Baltimore his last time out. He's surrendered home runs in all four of his starts, six in total over 25 innings.
Toronto's big bats have given him trouble in the past, as both Bautista and Encarnacion are hitting .400 or better against him.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-29-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
10-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@MIN to go UNDER the total.
The Tigers have slipped out of first place in the AL Central, trailing the Royals by a half a game. The bats have been awful quiet lately, averaging less than three runs over their last six games. We might see a pitcher's duel in Minnesota today.
Shane Greene will toe the rubber for the Tigers, and the kid has looked good so far. Greene (3-1, 3.00 ERA) was lit up for eight runs on nine hits over just four innings in a home loss Cleveland his last time out. He might be able to bounce back in this matinee game though, as his day/night splits are very encouraging. He's 2-0 with an 0.60 ERA in day games this year, and he was 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA in eight starts in the afternoon last season.
The Twins hand the ball to Phil Hughes, who pitched a gem opposite Felix Hernandez his last time out. Hughes (0-4, 4.39 ERA) allowed two runs on six hits while striking out nine over eight innings in a loss to Seattle. Hughes also has a history of pitching better in day games, he was 11-2 with a 3.26 ERA in the afternoon.
Hughes was also 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts versus the Tigers last year.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-28-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 205 |
Top |
111-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@LAC to go UNDER the total.
The Clippers shocked the Spurs by evening the series with a win in Game 4 in San Antonio. The series shifts back to the Staples Center, where the Clippers have seen five of their last six fall short of the total. The only exception was Game 2 of this series, and that game would have been an under as well if it wasn't for the overtime period. Both teams and both coach's know that the team that wins tonight is likely going to be the team that advances to the next round, and with so much at stake we can expect to see a tightly contested game with solid defending on both sides. Despite the trend of low scoring games in LA, we see a higher total in tonight's game than in the previous two here at Staples Center.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-27-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on TOR@BOS to go OVER the total. The Blue Jays own the league's highest scoring offense, but they struggled at the plate in Tampa, losing three straight and getting outscored 21-6 by the Rays. They play the Red Sox at Fenway tonight, and we should expect fireworks in this one. Aaron Sanchez will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's failed to impress so far. Sanchez (1-2, 5.14 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on just two hits over 5 1/3 innings in a win over Baltimore his last time out. While picking up his first victory was a positive for the 22 year old, by no means can you say he actually pitched well in that game. Only 43 of his 83 pitches were strikes, and he walked a whopping seven batters. The Orioles simply failed to take advantage with runners on base, and Sanchez is unlikely to be so fortunate here at Fenway. The Red Sox hand the ball to Joe Kelly, who is off to a pretty positive start in his first season in Boston. Kelly (1-0, 4.08 ERA) allowed five runs on eight hits over five innings, but struck out seven in a loss at Tampa Bay his last time out. Previously he had surrendered just a pair of runs on four hits over 5 2/3 innings in a win over Baltimore in his only home start so far this season. The Blue Jays bullpen has been terrible this season, ranking dead last in the American League with an ERA of 4.53. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
04-25-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trailblazers UNDER 189 |
|
115-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on MEM@POR to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies domination of Portland is nothing new, as they've won and covered in 10 of the last 11 meetings. The Blazers have been dealing with a long list of injuries to star players, and don't look like the same team they were when at full strength during the regular season. While I think Memphis may well win Game 3, I think the better bet is actually on the total. Both the first two games of this series fell comfortably below the number, yet the bookmakers haven't budged, as tonight's total his as high as it was in both previous games. Portland doesn't look like a team that can score a lot of points in a hurry, as they've really struggled shooting the ball. Damian Lillard had a terrible Game 1, and he was 0-for-6 from beyond the arc in Game 2. You gotta give credit to the Grizzlies defense, as they've been all over Portland's best players. Memphis has seen 35 of it's last 52 overall go under the total... so what do you expect... they will loosen up here in the playoff? I see no reason not to go back to the well with the under here in Game 3.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-25-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@TB to go OVER the total.
The Blues Jays own the major league's highest scoring offense, and as a result they have played more than their fair share of high scoring games. Despite the this trend we see another low total in today's game. These teams combined to score 15 runs last night (double the total of 7.5). With two struggling pitchers on the mound today, we should expect another slugfest.
Daniel Norris will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's been roughed up in his last two starts. Norris (1-1, 6.08 ERA) allowed five runs on six hits over just 2 2/3 innings in a loss to Atlanta his last time out. He complained that he felt like he had a "dead arm" during the game, but the doctors have given him the green light here today.
The Rays hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez, who has been downright awful so far. Ramirez (0-1, 21.32 ERA) was smoked for nine runs on nine hits in just 3 1/3 innings in his last start, and that was a loss to none other than Toronto.
Not only are today's starters coming in with a ton of question marks, these teams both rank near the bottom of the majors in ERA by reliever.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-25-15 |
Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins OVER 7.5 |
|
0-8 |
Win
|
119 |
10 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on WAS@MIA to go OVER the total. The Marlins took Game 1 of this series versus Washington by a score of 3-2, but I think we can expect a few more runs to cross the plate here in Game 2 in Miami.
Stephen Strasburg will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's off to a disappointing start to the season. Strasburg (1-1, 4.50 ERA) allowed one run on five hits and two walks over 7 1/3 innings in a home win over the Phillies his last time out. That was against the major league's worst offensive team, and he had been tagged for 11 runs on 19 hits over 10 2/3 innings prior to that.
Strasburg has faced the Marlins more than any other team, and he owns a decent record going 7-4 in 15 starts since 2012. Only one of those wins came in Miami, where he's 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA. The big bats in the Marlins lineup have punished Strasburg, as Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .357 with three homers and nine RBIs, and Marcel Ozuna is 6-for-13 with a home run and five RBIs lifetime versus the right-hander.
The Fish hand the ball to Tom Koehler, who has been hit hard so far this season. Koehler (1-2, 6.75 ERA) was torched for seven runs on five hits and two walks in just 3 1/3 innings in a loss to the Mets his last time out. Jayson Werth is hitting .300 with a pair of home runs in 10 career at bats versus Koehler.
Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
04-24-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7.5 |
|
3-12 |
Win
|
105 |
13 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on TOR@TB to go OVER the total. The Blue Jays continued their assault on opposing pitchers last night, defeating the Orioles by a score of 7-6. They take their major league leading offense on the road to Tampa on Friday.
R.A. Dickey will toe the slab for the Jays, and he's struggled with his control this season. Dickey (0-1, 3.26 ERA) gave up four runs on four hits and four walks over seven innings in a no-decision his last time out. He didn't pitch well in Tampa last season, going 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA in three starts at Tropicana Field.
The Rays will hand the ball to Drew Smyly, who comes off the DL to make his season debut. Smyly looked good in three rehab assignments, but never went more than 3 2/3 innings in three appearances at Triple-A.
We can count on an early exit for Smyly, who hasn't been stretched out since coming off a shoulder injury, and that bodes well for the Jays as the Tampa bullpen ranks dead last in the AL with a 4.77 ERA.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-22-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
111-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@LAC to go UNDER the total.
The Clippers owned the defending champions at the Staples Center in Game 1, but I seriously doubt they will be able to keep up that pace throughout this series. Coach Popovich will have made adjustments, and his focus will clearly be on slowing down Chris Paul. The Clippers veteran PG was unstoppable in Game 1, scoring 32 points on 13-of-20 shooting. There's no way the Spurs are going to let him do it again, they owned on of the league's best defenses during the regular season, with an opponent's scoring average of 97 points per game (3rd best in the NBA). The Clippers defense was incredible in Game 1, and that's nothing new, they've seen the total go under in six of their last seven overall. These two teams have a long history of playing low scoring games at the Staples Center, with the under cashing in at a rate of 22-8-1 in the last 32 meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-22-15 |
Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIN@KC to go OVER the total. The Royals are looking to complete the sweep in the series finale versus the Twins tonight, after coming from behind to steal Game 2 with a late rally last night. The Twins haven't been able to hold a lead, and their bullpen ranks among the worst in the majors.
Jeremy Guthrie will toe the rubber for the Royals, and he's been pretty reliable throughout his career. You can count on Guthrie to give up his fair share of runs and hits, but more often than not, the Royals bail him out with their bats. Guthrie has given up four runs in each of his first two starts, but Kansas City has won both of those games. He was 6-6 with a 4.42 ERA at home last year.
The Twins hand the ball to Mike Pelfrey, who also gives up his fair share of runs, but unlike Guthrie, he doesn't pick up many victories. Pelfrey (0-0, 4.50 ERA) allowed one run on three hits and four walks over five innings in a home win over Cleveland his last time out. He was rocked on the road in his season debut, and he's 0-2 with a 9.49 ERA in three starts versus Kansas City since 2012.
The Royals have six players in the lineup that are hitting .400 or better versus Pelfrey.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-22-15 |
Portland Trailblazers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189.5 |
Top |
82-97 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on POR@MEM to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies shut down Portland in Game 1, winning by a score of 100-86. The Blazers are going to have a tough time getting a better result here in Game 2, as they've lost five straight, and nine of their last 10 versus Memphis. Damian Lillard shot just 5-of-21 from the field, and 0-for-6 from three point range in Game 1, and the Blazers shot just 33.7% for the game. The total for tonight's game is the same as what we saw in Game 1, despite an overwhelming trend of low scoring games in Memphis. The Grizz have seen the total go under in 23 of their last 26 at FedExForum. With so much at stake here in a playoff game, it would appear even more likely that we'll see another low scoring game. The Grizzlies own the league's best defense, with an opponent's scoring average of 95 points during the regular season. They allowed fewer points than any other playoff team in Game 1, and we'll be counting on another strong defensive effort from Memphis in Game 2.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-22-15 |
Montreal Canadiens v. Ottawa Senators UNDER 5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MTL@OTT to go UNDER the total.
The Senators storybook season could come to an end tonight on home ice, as they trail the Habs 3-0 in this first round series. They aren't going to go down without a fight though, and with their backs against the wall in an elimination game, we should expect a tightly contested, physical game, with very few scoring chances. We saw just that in Game 3, as Craig Anderson made a a triumphant return to the Senators net, stopping 47 shots in a 2-1 overtime loss. Carey Price didn't see as much rubber, but he was equal to the task, stopping 33 shots in the victory. This game appears to be shaping up to be another goaltender's duel in Canada's capital.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-22-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on BAL@TOR to go OVER the total. The Blue Jays will host the Orioles in Game 2 of a three game set at Rogers Center Wednesday, and they won the series opener by a score of 13-6. Both these teams have plenty of heavy hitters, and neither team has a reliable bullpen. I think we'll see another slugfest in Toronto tonight.
Ubaldo Jimenez will toe the slab for the Orioles, and he's yet to concede a run this season. Jimenez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) has only surrendered one hit, while striking out 10 over 10 2/3 innings in two appearances this season. He wasn't that sharp against Toronto last season, going 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three starts.
The Jays will hand the ball to rookie Aaron Sanchez, who's been hit hard so far. Sanchez (0-2, 6.23 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings in a loss to Tampa his last time out. Prior to that he was torched by the Orioles in Baltimore, surrendering three runs on seven hits, including a pair of home runs over just 3 1/3 innings.
If the Orioles can't get to Sanchez, they might have better luck against Toronto's bullpen. They scored three of their six runs last night against the Jays relievers. Only Tampa Bay's relief pitchers have surrendered more runs than Baltimore, who's bullpen is among the worst in the majors.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-21-15 |
Nashville Predators v. Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is an 10* play on NAS@CHI to go UNDER the total. The Hawks appear to have found their man between the pipes, as Scott Darling will take over the reigns from Corey Crawford. Darling came in and stopped all 42 shots he faced in Game 1 of this series, sparking a come from behind overtime win. He started Game 2 on the bench once again, but Crawford struggled once again. The 26 year old saw plenty of rubber in Game 3, turning away 35 of 37 shots in a 4-2 win for the home team. The Hawks will try to take a stranglehold in this series with a win tonight, and with Nashville missing it's MVP Shea Weber on the blue line, you have to like their chances. The Hawks won three of four in the regular season series, and the under is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-21-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 |
Top |
6-13 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BAL@TOR Over.
The Jays took two of three in a three game series at Baltimore earlier this month, and Toronto took the series opener in a 12-5 slugfest. We see the same two starting pitchers on the mound tonight, and I think the results will be similar.
Mark Buehrle will toe the slab for the home team, and he's been Toronto's best pitcher so far. Buehrle (2-0, 3.75 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits over six innings in a win over Tampa his last time out. He's given up plenty of hits, and three home runs, but the crafty veteran always seems to do enough to give his team a chance to win.
The Orioles hand the ball to Bud Norris, who's off to a terrible start to the season. Norris (0-1, 12.38 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits and two walks over five innings in a no decision versus the Yankees his last time out. Prior to that he was obliterated by the Jays, surrendering eight runs in just three innings.
The Jays bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors, allowing 19 runs in 47 2.3 innings so far, but Baltimore is one of the few teams that have been worse, as it's relievers have allowed seven more runs in the exact same amount of innings.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-20-15 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 188 |
|
82-91 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on MIL@CHI to go UNDER the total.
The Bulls looked unstoppable in Game 1, particularly star PG Derrick Rose. It seemed to take Milwaukee a while to figure out how to play defense, as the first half was a bit of shootout, with the Bulls taking a 60-51 lead to the locker room at halftime. Once they settled in we saw each team play more defense, as they only combined to score 83 points in the second half. I expect that to carry over here into Game 2, as Jason Kidd knows very well that his team isn't going to be able to beat Chicago in a high scoring game. The Bucks led the league in forced turnovers during the regular season, and they'll look to get back to playing defense in an attempt to get back into this series. Kidd commented after the game: "we're not an offensive team, that's not who we are". We saw five of the previous six meetings in this series go under the total, and I think the over in Game 1 will prove to be the exception rather than the rule moving forward.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-19-15 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189 |
|
86-100 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on POR@MEM to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies and the Blazers are two teams that come into the playoffs on a downward spiral. The Grizzlies slipped all the way to 5th in the West, while the #4 place Blazers lost several key players to various injuries. LaMarcus Aldridge has been playing hurt all year, opting not to have season ending surgery on his thumb. He's expected to play tonight despite a sore foot. The prognosis is not as good for Arron Afflalo and Chris Kaman, who aren't expected to suit up. Wesley Matthews is done for the year, but Nicolas Batum might be able to return from a knee injury. Needless to say, it's going to be challenging for the Blazers, playing a Memphis team that has beaten them in nine of the last 10 meetings. The Grizzlies are well known as a defensive team that plays at a slow pace, and that's why 23 of their last 27 home games have gone under the total. I don't see any reason to expect that to change tonight, as it's normal for teams to tighten up even more in the playoffs.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-19-15 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Washington Nationals OVER 7 |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-128 |
12 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@WAS to go OVER the total.
The Nats are a big favorite here in the series finale versus Philly, but I don't think they are worth the price given how they've been playing. The Phillies roughed up Jordan Zimmerman in Washington yesterday, and they'll get a crack at a struggling Stephen Strasburg today.
Strasburg (0-1, 6.75 ERA) has surrendered 11 runs on 19 hits over 11 2/3 innings in consecutive losses to start the season. He does have good numbers in past meetings with the Phillies, but it's hard to rely on him having a good day here after seeing him struggle in his previous starts.
The Phillies hand the ball to David Buchanan, who has been lit up pretty good this season. Buchanan (0-2, 11.42 ERA) has given up 11 runs on 16 hits in just 8 2/3 innings over his first two starts. He was rocked for seven runs on 10 hits over six innings, losing his only start versus the Nationals last season, and that was right here in Washington.
We've seen no shortage of offense in this series so far, and today's matchup doesn't give us any reason to expect a pitcher's duel.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-18-15 |
Atlanta Braves v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@TOR to go OVER the total.
The Toronto Blue Jays haven't had any trouble scoring this season, as only the Royals have scored more runs so far. That hasn't translated into a winning record though, as their pitching staff has been a big letdown.
R.A. Dickey will toe the rubber for the home team, and he looked a little shaky his last time out. Dickey (0-1, 2.19 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on three hits over six innings in a loss to Tampa. That might not sound too bad, but he also walked five batters, making it eight free passes in 12 innings so far this season. A lack of control could prove to be his undoing today in Toronto's hitter's park.
The Braves have hit Dickey hard in previous meetings, none more than Freddie Freeman who is batting .476 with a pair of home runs in 21 career at bats. Atlanta will hand the ball to Alex Wood, who's done nothing to impress so far this season. He allowed three runs on eight hits and three walks over 6 2/3 innings in a loss to the Mets his last time out. The 24 year old won 11 games last year, but only three of those wins came on the road. This will be a much tougher test than the kid is used to facing in the National League. Expect another slugfest north of the border this afternoon.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-17-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7 |
|
9-0 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on ARI@SF to go OVER the total. The D'Backs handed the Giants their seventh straight loss last night, in a 12 inning marathon. Arizona blew leads in the bottom of the ninth and 10th innings, before taking the lead for good in the top of the 12th. We'll see a pair of winless pitchers facing off in Game 2 of this series tonight, and I think the total looks a little low all things considered.
Josh Collmenter will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's coming off a loss to the Dodgers his last time out. He surrendered three runs on nine hits over five innings, losing by a score of 7-4. The right-hander won 11 games in 2014, and seven of those came at home. He was 4-4 with a 4.76 ERA on the road.
The Giants will hand the ball to Jake Peavy, who missed his first schedule start due to back spasms. The 33 year old got rocked in his debut, surrendering four runs on four hits and three walks over just four innings. While there is no doubt that Peavy has the talent, at this stage in his career his body has too many miles on it.
These teams combined to hit four home runs in last night's game, so with similar conditions expected just 24 hours later, we could see these two starters struggle to keep the ball in the park.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-17-15 |
Chicago Blackhawks v. Nashville Predators UNDER 5 |
Top |
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
21 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHI@NAS to go UNDER the total.
The Predators got off to a quick start in Game 1, perhaps catching Corey Crawford by surprise. They led 3-0 after the first period, but it only took Chicago 20 minutes to rally for three in the second to tie the score. The rest of the game was a defensive struggle, as it took 47 minutes before the Hawks finally scored the winner in double OT. Chicago has already announced that Crawford will be back between the pipes tonight, even though Scott Darling pitched a shutout, stopping all 42 shots he faced in relief in Game 1. I expect a much better effort from Chicago's defense, as well as their starting netminder. These two teams have had a history of playing tight, defensive games, with six of eight meetings going under prior to Game 1 of this series.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-17-15 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAA@HOU to go OVER the total. The Angels will travel to Houston to play Game 1 of a three game set at Minutemaid Park Friday, and they are a favorite in this game with Jered Weaver on the mound.
Weaver (0-2, 8.71 ERA) hasn't looked anything like an ace so far this season, and after watching him struggle through a below average season in 2014, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise. He was 8-5 with a 4.70 ERA on the road, and 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in two trips to Houston.
The Astros hand the ball to Roberto Hernandez, who ain't no spring chicken himself. The 34 year old gave up five runs on five hits and four walks in just 4 2/3 innings in a loss to Texas in his debut. He's been hit hard by the Halos in recent meetings, surrendering 11 runs on 18 hits over 15 2/3 innings in three appearances since 2012.
Mike Trout has owned Hernandez, hitting .375 with a pair of home runs in eight at bats lifetime.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-17-15 |
Ottawa Senators v. Montreal Canadiens UNDER 5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Push |
0 |
18 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OTT@MTL to go UNDER the total.
The story after Game 1 of this series was P.K. Subban's slash on Mark Stone, that resulted in a five minute penalty and Subban's ejection from the game in the second period. The Sens scored on that power-play, and then allowed a short-handed goal shortly after. The Habs ended up winning by a score of 4-3, even without Subban. The Sens will be without Mark Sone for likely the rest of the series with a fractured wrist, while Subban will return for the Habs without a suspension. Carey Price led the league in GAA (1.96) as well as save percentage (.933). The Sens were lucky to put three past him in Game 1, and I don't expect them to be so fortunate here tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-14-15 |
Washington Nationals v. Boston Red Sox OVER 8 |
|
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on WAS@BOS to go OVER the total. The Red Sox are off to a hot start, sitting at the top of the AL East standings with a 5-2 record. They've been getting it done at the plate, scoring 43 runs in those games, and they beat the Nats by a score of 9-4 in the series opener yesterday. They chased Jordan Zimmerman from the game in the third inning, but not before he allowed eight runs on nine hits. Stephen Strasburg will toe the slab for the Nats tonight, and he was roughed up in his season debut. Strasburg (0-1, 5.06 ERA) surrendered six runs on nine hits and three walks over 5 1/3 innings at home against the Mets. It wasn't such a surprise, as the 26 year old was coming off a poor outing in his final start of the spring. Pitching on the road at Fenway against the heavy hitting Sox could be a tough spot for the struggling right-hander to turn things around. The Red Sox hand the ball to Justin Masterson, who wasn't bad in his debut. Masterson (1-0, 3.00 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on three hits and two walks in a 6-2 win at Philly. While it was an encouraging display for the 30 year old, he's coming off a brutal 2014 campaign that saw him relegated to the Cardinals bullpen at the end of the year. This will be Masterson's first start at Fenway, where he was 0-3 with a 10.29 ERA over the last three seasons. The total here is so low, it seems like the books are calling for a pitcher's duel, but I think that history suggests we are more likely to see a slugfest. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
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04-11-15 |
Minnesota Twins v. Chicago White Sox OVER 8.5 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on MIN@CHW to go OVER the total. The White Sox are still in pursuit of their first victory of the 2015 season, but they are a big favorite here this afternoon against the Minnesota Twins. I wouldn't be to quick to back the home team though, given the fact that their starting pitcher is coming off a pretty lousy performance. The best bet here appears to be on the total, as we have two struggling pitchers in a hitter's park. Jeff Samardzija will toe the slab for the Sox, and he was hammered on Opening Day in a loss to the Royals. The big left-hander surrendered five runs on six hits and three walks over six innings of a 10-1 defeat. Given his record of 1-3 with an 8.44 ERA this spring, it's hard to be too confident about Samardzija early in the season. The Twins hand the ball to Mike Pelfrey, who has been clobbered in his limited experience in the Majors. Pelfrey was 0-3 with a 7.99 ERA in five starts last season, and he owns a career ERA of 4.56. A quick glance at his spring stats might look promising, as he posted an ERA of 1.15 through 15 2/3 innings. Dig a little deeper and you see that he surrendered 17 hits and a pair of walks in those games, and must have been very fortunate to get out of a few jams. Adam Laroche comes into this game really struggling at the plate, but he should be glad to see Pelfrey. He's 9-for-13 (.692) with six RBIs lifetime versus the right-hander. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
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04-10-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8 |
Top |
6-2 |
Push |
0 |
15 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PIT@MIL to go OVER the total.
The Pirates and the Brewers will open a series at Miller Park on Friday, and these are two teams still in pursuit of their first win. The Pirates were swept in St. Louis, while the Brewers lost all three in a home series versus Colorado.
Jeff Locke will toe the rubber for the Pirates, and he was roughed up badly this spring. The 27 year old surrendered 14 runs on 23 hits over just 18 innings, going 2-2 in the Grapefruit league. The big bats in the Brewers lineup have feasted on Locke in the past with Jonathan Lucroy going 6-of-13 lifetime, while Ryan Braun is 5-for-17 with a home run.
Mike Fiers was also roughed up in the spring, surrendering nine runs on a dozen hits over 12.1 innings, with nine walks and just six strikeouts. Of all the things you could say about this pitcher, perhaps the "Sum of all Fears" is that Andrew McCutchen is hitting 4.29 with four home runs and nine RBIs in just 14 at bats,
We should see a fair bit of offense at Miller Park.
Take Over.
GL, Jesse Schule
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04-09-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees OVER 7 |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TO@NYY to go OVER the total.
The Jays blew a two run lead, surrendering three runs in the bottom of the eighth in a 4-3 loss in the Bronx last night. Toronto though won Game 1 by a score of 6-1, and have looked like the superior team throughout the series. Given tonight's match-up on the mound, I expect Toronto's big bats to pile on here in the Bronx in the series finale.
C.C. Sabathia will toe the slab for the Bronx Bombers, and he was rocked in spring training. That really comes as no surprise, as he's been struggling for the last few years now. He was only able to start three games in the Bronx last year, going 0-3 with a 7.47 ERA. His numbers in the spring were no better, posting an ERA over 8.00.
Making matters worse for Sabathia (both pitchers in fact), tonight's umpire is notorious for having a really small strike zone.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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