Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-17-22 | Red Wings v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Red Wings have seen their last four games go 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday night in New York. Detroit has had a couple of days to stew over Monday's ugly 7-4 loss in Minnesota. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 with the Wings coming off a game where both teams scored 4+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers check in off a 2-1 win over the undermanned Bruins on Tuesday. They've seen the 'under' go 11-1 after allowing one goal or less in their previous game this season, with an average total of just 4.4 goals scored in that situation. The 'under' is also 14-4 with the Blueshirts playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals. While New York has plenty of offensive firepower it has also quietly been an extremely stingy team here at home, allowing only 2.3 goals per contest. It may not need to score a lot to secure a win here, noting that Detroit averages only 2.6 goals per game on the road. Take the under (10*). |
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02-14-22 | Oilers v. Sharks OVER 6 | 3-0 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Monday. The Oilers are coming off three straight low-scoring 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to San Jose to face a Sharks squad that has been idle since February 1st. Note that Edmonton has actually been a higher-scoring team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 goals per game. Better still, the Oilers have averaged 4.0 goals per game when coming off a home victory over the last three seasons. That is of course the situation here following Saturday's 3-1 win over the Islanders. Here, they'll face a Sharks squad that has struggled to keep the puck out of their own net all season here at home, allowing 3.3 goals per game. On the flip side, San Jose had scored just three goals over is last two contests - both losses - prior to the extended layoff. Note that the Sharks average 3.6 goals per game when coming off consecutive losses this season (11-game sample size). While San Jose has predominantly been an 'under' team this season (18-28 o/u record), the 'over' has gone 5-4 when it comes off a two-game stretch in which it managed to score three goals or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 6.2 goals. With regular starter Mikko Koskinen on the Covid list, we're likely to see Mike Smith between the pipes for the Oilers. The last time he faced the Sharks the result was a 6-3 San Jose victory here in California. Take the over (8*). |
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02-10-22 | Penguins v. Senators UNDER 6 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 112 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Penguins have seen their last three games go 'over' the total while the Sens have come out of the break with back-to-back 'over' results, winning both games against the Devilsi and Hurricanes. Ottawa scored four goals in each of those contests but I'm not convinced their recent offensive surge is sustainable. Keep in mind, the Sens still average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 with the Sens coming off a home game in which both teams scored 3+ goals this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 with Ottawa following up a game that totalled seven goals or more this season, leading to an average total of just 5.0 goals in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the 'under' is 21-11 when the Sens play at home seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent, which is the case here after dropping a 6-4 decision in Pittsburgh on January 20th (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Penguins have been producing plenty of goals but it's worth noting that they allow only 2.4 goals per game on the road this season. They'll be off the next two days before playing again on Sunday and that should certainly help with their focus against a very manageable opponent here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-08-22 | Wild v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We're generally much more interested in playing 'overs' rather than 'unders' in games involving the Minnesota Wild and that's the case on Tuesday as well. Minnesota headed into the All-Star break off an 'under' result, securing a 5-0 win in Chicago last week. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 26-14 with the Wild coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 6.6 goals. There are a number of key trends supporting the 'over' when it comes to the Wild - not surprisingly - perhaps most notable is the fact that the 'over' is 10-2 when they face a division opponent this season, with those contests totalling an average of 7.7 goals. That includes a pair of matchups against the Jets that reached 11 and eight goals, with the Wild prevailing in both contests. The Jets have been scuffling along and will be without one of their best players up front in Pierre-Luc Dubois, who has landed on the Covid list. Perhaps more concerning is the fact that the Jets continue to play without 3-4 regulars on the blue line. That certainly opens the door for an explosive Wild offense that averages 4.5 goals per game after scoring three or more goals in four consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The question becomes whether the Jets can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. I'm confident they can. Note that Winnipeg averages 3.3 goals per game at home this season. Guys like Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler are obviously going to need to step up and produce in Dubois' absence but they're all capable. I like the fact that the Wild are turning to Kaapo Kahkonen in goal for this one. He performed admirably in place of an injured Cam Talbot (who took part in the All-Star Game over the weekend) in early January but has struggled of late, allowing six goals in his last two starts (both of those games totalled seven goals) while also giving up one goal on six shots in the third period in relief of Talbot against the lowly Canadiens on January 24th. The Jets are in desperate need of wins if they are to have any hope of rallying to earn a playoff berth in the crowded Western Conference. In order to take anything away from this one, they'll likely have to score 3-4 goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-7 with the Jets coming off a game that totalled four goals or less over the last two seasons, which is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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02-07-22 | Hurricanes v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Hurricanes were struggling offensively heading into the All-Star break but that might have had something to do with a tough schedule that saw them play six games in 10 days. I expect them to come out re-energized out of the break, noting that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 when they play five or less games in a 14-day span over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 9.0 goals. The Leafs come out of the break on the heels of five straight wins. That's notable as they've gone 1-5 when coming off five or more consecutive victories over the last two seasons, allowing an average of 3.8 goals in that situation. Tonight, the Leafs will give the start to backup goaltender Petr Mrazek. Note that Mrazek has made just two home starts this season, with both of those games totalling nine goals against the Red Wings and Blackhawks. The last two meetings between these two teams in Toronto have totalled nine and 14 goals. Expect another relatively high-scoring affair on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-22 | Oilers v. Capitals OVER 6 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in the Oilers most recent game as they got bogged down by a Senators squad that has been playing a frustrating, stingy style of hockey lately in a 3-2 overtime loss in Ottawa on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as Edmonton looks to bounce back before the All-Star break in Washington on Wednesday. The Capitals rallied for a 4-3 overtime win in Pittsburgh last night and have now scored nine goals in their last two games after being held to a grand total of seven goals over their previous four contests. It may seem a little counter-intuitive, but the return of John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov on the blue line has actually bolstered their offense considerably with Orlov chipping in with two goals last night. At the back-end, the Caps remain in tough. Vitek Vanecek had been their more consistent goaltender recently but he was lost to an injury in last night's game. Ilya Samsonov filled in admirably the rest of the way but that doesn't change the fact that's he's been shaky at best lately, posting an .876 save percentage over his last four games and his aggressive style isn't likely to serve him well against the Oilers explosive offensive attack that has been further bolstered by the addition of Evander Kane. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 12-5 with the Oilers coming off an 'under' result this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 7.1 goals. Meanwhile, the Caps have posted an 8-2 o/u record when coming off two or more consecutive wins this season, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals. Interestingly, the 'over' is also 10-2 with the Caps coming off an overtime win over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 6.7 goals. Take the over (9*). |
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01-31-22 | Oilers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Oilers are coming off a wild 7-2 victory over the reeling Canadiens in Montreal on Saturday. That high-scoring result actually sets us up well with a play on the 'under' as their road trip continues in Ottawa on Monday, noting that the 'under' has gone 8-2 in the Oilers last 10 games following a contest in which eight or more total goals were scored, with that situation producing an average total of only 5.7 goals. The Sens would be wise to avoid a free-flowing affair here as they continue to play without a number of key contributors up front, including Drake Batherson and Josh Norris. They employed a 'muck it up' type of gameplan in a similar matchup against a stacked Hurricanes offense last week and managed to salvage a point in a 3-2 overtime loss. All told, the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 in the Sens last five home games. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' is 23-11 with the Sens playing at home with a total of 6.0 or higher over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of 5.8 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 13-5 the last 18 times Ottawa has played at home after losing four or five of its last six games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 5.2 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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01-29-22 | Devils v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the Devils most recent game - a 3-2 loss in Tampa on Thursday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. Note that the 'over' is 15-6 with the Devils having scored two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. Despite being down to third and fourth-string goaltenders, New Jersey has held up ok, allowing 'only' 11 goals over its last three contests. I believe the floogates could open here, however, with the Canes looking to avenge a 7-4 loss on the road against the Devils earlier this month. Note that Carolina averages 3.8 goals per game at home this season and better still, has scored an average of 4.1 goals per game against division opponents, with those games totalling an average of 7.8 goals. Take the over (7*). |
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01-28-22 | Capitals v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 9:05 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Friday night in Dallas. Washington got bogged down at home on Wednesday night, managing just one goal in a lopsided loss to the Sharks. The Caps have managed to score just a single goal over their last two games combined. They know they'll need to pick up the pace against a Stars squad that has found its groove offensively, scoring 18 goals over their last four games. Dallas checks in averaging an impressive 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. Better still, when playing at home off a win this season, the Stars average 4.2 goals per game (10-game sample size). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Caps have come off three or more consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 6.6 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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01-28-22 | Wild v. Rangers UNDER 6 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and New York at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams have been involved in their share of high-scoring games lately. The Wild are coming off an eight-goal outburst on Monday but that came at the expense of the lowly Canadiens, who are down to their fourth or fifth-string goaltender right now. The Rangers took it on the chin in Columbus last night, jumping ahead 2-0 before falling by a 5-3 score. That was with backup goaltender Alex Georgiev in goal. We should see standout netminder Igor Shesterkin back between the pipes for the Blueshirts on Friday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-4 in the Wild's last 17 road games when coming off consecutive contests totalling seven goals or more, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 5.1 goals. As for the Rangers, the 'under' is 16-5 in their last 21 home games after a loss by two goals or more, as is the situation here, leading to an average total of only 5.3 goals. Finally, I'll point out that you would have to go back four meetings here in New York to find the last time these two teams posted a total north of five goals at MSG. Take the under (8*). |
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01-26-22 | Sharks v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We've got the goaltending matchup we wanted with James Reimer expected between the pipes for the Sharks and Ilya Samsonov likely to get the nod for the Caps. Reimer checks in having allowed 25 goals over his last six games. Meanwhile, Samsonov will be making his first start since a week ago Sunday against Vancouver. He gave up three goals in that game and has given up 20 goals over his last six contests. There's more to this play than just the goaltenders, however. The Sharks average 3.8 goals per game on nine previous occasions coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here. The Caps on the other hand have allowed 3.2 goals on average when coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons (35-game sample size). Washington has also posted a 17-7 o/u record when coming off a game where four total goals or fewer were scored over the last two seasons, resulting in 6.6 total goals on average. When these two teams met back in mid-November in San Jose, the Caps skated to a 4-0 win in a game that cruised 'under' the closing total of 6.0. We're dealing with a more favorable total here and I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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01-25-22 | Sabres v. Senators OVER 6 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Senators enter this game off consecutive low-scoring affairs, collecting three of a possible four points in splitting two games in Washington and Columbus over the weekend. They just faced these same Sabres here at home one week ago tonight, with that game totalling just four goals in a Sabres 3-1 victory. Since then, Buffalo has lit it up offensively, scoring a whopping 10 goals over its last two games. Alex Tuch's debut has certainly fueled the Sabres mini-resurgence and I expect that to continue on Tuesday. Note that Ottawa allows 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. Interestingly, the Sens are averaging 3.9 goals per game with an average total of 7.1 goals when coming off a game in which they allowed one goal or less over the last two seasons (13-game sample size), as is the case here. As for Buffalo, it has allowed 3.8 goals per game the last 17 times it has come off two wins over its last three games. It's worth noting that Ottawa fired 44 shots on Sabres goaltender Michael Houser in his season debut last Tuesday. I'm confident they can improve considerably on their one goal scored in that contest, regardless whether we see Houser or Aaron Dell in goal for the Sabres in this one. Finally, I'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 205-166 with the Sens coming off consecutive games scoring two goals or less, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-22 | Blues v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We cashed a free play on the 'under' in the Blues 3-1 win in Vancouver last night. St. Louis jumped ahead early in the second period and was able to cruise the rest of the way with the Canucks missing plenty of offensive firepower due to Covid protocols. Tonight, I suspect St. Louis will need to keep its foot on the gas for three full periods as the Flames come in having scored eight goals in their last two games, and fired a whopping 47 shots on the Oilers net in a disappointing 5-3 loss on Saturday. Since December 30th, the Flames have scored 6, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 5 and 3 goals - good, but not great. Here, they'll catch a Blues squad in a back-to-back spot, and likely with currently the weaker of their two goaltenders in the crease in Jordan Binnington. Six of Binnington's last seven starts have totalled at least six goals. The last time he faced the Flames was right here in Calgary in January of 2020 when the Blues skated to a 5-4 victory. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 52-36 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 6.5 goals. The 'over' is also 24-13 in the Blues last 37 games following a contest that totalled four goals or less with that spot producing an average total of 6.6 goals. As for the Flames, the last 23 times they've played at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games, they've seen an average total of 6.6 goals scored. Also working in our favor is the fact that the Blues are expected to have Pavel Buchnevich back in the lineup after he was forced to remain in Seattle due to Canada's Covid rules. Take the over (10*). |
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01-22-22 | Blackhawks v. Wild OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Wild home games are averaging a whopping 7.5 goals this season and I expect that high-scoring trend to continue in this quick rematch between the Blackhawks and Wild on Saturday night. Minnesota skated to a 5-1 win in Chicago in the front half of this home-and-home series last night. The Wild have now scored a whopping 15 goals over their last three games. Tonight they'll likely get to face Blackhawks backup goaltender Kevin Lankinen, who has posted a sub .890 save percentage this season, after Marc-Andre Fleury performed admirably, starting each of their last eight games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 33-19 with the Blackhawks coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.5 goals. The 'over' is also 12-4 with the Hawks playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in their previous game, leading to an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. As for the Wild, they've posted an 8-1 o/u record when playing at home in the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, with an average total of 6.9 goals scored in that situation. Better still, the 'over' is 11-3 with the Wild coming off a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons, with an average total of 7.1 goals scored in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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01-22-22 | Maple Leafs v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs are coming off consecutive wild, high-scoring games against the Blues and Rangers, splitting those two contests. Despite their potent offense, they don't want to make a habit of getting involved in those type of affairs. They'll turn to backup Petr Mrazek in goal for this one but that's not necessarily a bad thing as Jack Campbell, who has performed well a a whole this season, has struggled lately, posting a miserable .866 save percentage over his last four games. The Islanders are coming off a 4-0 home win over the lowly Coyotes last night. They've scored exactly four goals in three consecutive games but that's not a sustainable trend, noting that they average just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season, with those games totalling an average of only 4.6 goals. The 'under' is a long-term 20-9 with the Isles playing at home off a game in which they scored four goals or more, as is the case here, producing an average total of just 4.8 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 10-2 the last 12 times New York has played at home after scoring three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.2 goals. As for the Leafs, they've seen the 'under' cash at a perfect 6-0 clip the last six times they've played on the road after consecutive games that totalled eight goals or more, as is the case here, producing an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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01-21-22 | Penguins v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in the Penguins 6-4 win over the Senators last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Friday in Columbus as both the Pens and Blue Jackets play the second of back-to-backs. Note that we're likely to see a matchup of the backup goaltenders in this one. Statistically-speaking, Casey DeSmith and Joonas Korpisalo have been two of the weakest backups in the league this season with DeSmith posting a .888 save percentage with a 6-2 o/u record in eight starts while Korpisalo has recorded a .882 save percentage with an 8-2 o/u mark in 10 starts. While these two teams haven't met in Columbus in a while, it has certainly been a high-scoring series at Nationwide Arena over the years with the last seven matchups here totalling 7, 5, 7, 9, 7, 9 and 9 goals. The Jackets have been held to just two goals in consecutive games but average 3.5 goals per contest here at home this season with their games averaging a total of 6.7 goals. For their part, the Pens average 3.3 goals per game on the road and are red hot right now, having potted 11 goals over their last two games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times the Blue Jackets have come off a game where four goals or less were scored, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.0 goals in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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01-20-22 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 6 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Senators are coming off a low-scoring game at home against the Sabres two nights ago and that actually sets us up well with a play on the 'over' on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled four goals or less over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 8.9 goals. The 'over' is also 16-6 with the Sens playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons with that spot leading to an average total of 7.8 goals. As for the Pens, they average 4.2 goals and have seen an average total of 6.5 goals when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons (13-game sample size). Pens goaltender Tristan Jarry has been having a terrific season but has struggled a bit lately, posting an .899 save percentage over his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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01-19-22 | Maple Leafs v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in New York on Wednesday. Both teams are brimming with talent offensively, we know that. But this game also features a matchup between two of the league's best young goaltenders in Jack Campbell and Igor Shesterkin (based on scheduling both should get the nod in goal tonight). Campbell has struggled on Toronto's current trip but still owns a .931 save percentage while Shesterkin checks in sporting a .939 save percentage on the season. The Leafs are coming off a wild 6-5 win in St. Louis on Saturday. They're also just one game removed from a 2-1 loss in Arizona though and check in allowing 2.9 goals per game on the road this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 15-6 with the Leafs playing on the road after scoring five goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. The Rangers are in a bit of a tough spot here, back home off a long road trip that took them all over the map. They're 10-5 on home ice this season where they've given up just 2.3 goals per game. While their exceptional talent up front gets most of the press, the Blueshirts are actually averaging less than 3.0 goals per game this season (2.9). Note that the 'under' has gone 12-3 the last 15 times they've played at home after winning five or six of their last seven games, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of only 5.0 goals. They're allowing just 2.2 goals on average when coming off a win this season with an average total of 5.0 goals in that spot as well. Finally, we'll note that the first two meetings in this series this season produced 2-1 final scores with the teams splitting those two contests. Take the under (10*). |
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01-17-22 | Blackhawks v. Seattle Kraken OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Seattle at 5:05 pm et on Monday. This total has been set too low, largely due to recent results. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled six goals as the Blackhawks skated to a 4-2 win here in Seattle. Chicago enters this game having allowed two goals or less in four straight games. Keep in mind, we're talking about a team that has allowed 3.2 goals per game this season and 3.4 goals per game on the road. Seattle is reeling right now and has scored only two goals over its last two games. The Kraken do average 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Kraken coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division rival this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. As for the Blackhawks, the 'over' is 9-1 with Chicago coming off three consecutive games allowing two goals or less, which is the situation here. That spot has produced an average total of 7.0 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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01-16-22 | Canucks v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Washington at 2:05 pm et on Sunday. The Canucks have fallen on hard times on their current road trip, not a surprise as they're coming off a three-game stretch in what I like to call the NHL's version of the 'Bermuda Triangle', facing the Panthers, Lightning and Hurricanes in succession. Here, Vancouver does catch Washington coming off a 2-0 win over the Islanders yesterday, which is notable as the Caps are 0-4 when returning home off a road win by two goals or more this season, allowing 3.5 goals on average in that situation. The Caps have generally been fairly forgiving defensively at home this season, allowing 2.8 goals per game. I'll also note that the 'over' is 17-5 with the Caps coming off a game that totalled three goals or less over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.8 goals scored. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 16-6 with the Canucks playing on the road after a game where they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 7.1 goals. Take the over (8*). |
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01-14-22 | Ducks v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Anaheim and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the Ducks allowing 3.2 goals per game on the road and the Wild giving up 3.1 goals per game on home ice, I think the oddsmakers are a little too optimistic when it comes to both of these defenses on Friday night. Also note that each of the last three meetings between these two teams in Minnesota have totalled exactly seven goals. Better still, the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 in Minnesota's eight previous home games where the total was set at 5.5 this season with that situation producing an average total of 8.2 goals scored. In the longer-term picture, note that the 'over' is 18-7 the last 25 times the Wild have come off consecutive games in which they gave up two or less goals, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. The Ducks have been consistently poor at keeping the puck out of their own net over the last month or so, allowing 6, 2, 3, 4, 1, 4, 3 and 4 goals over their last eight games, good for an average of 3.4 goals allowed per contest. Take the over (8*). |
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01-13-22 | Canadiens v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The last time these two teams met back in early December the Blackhawks skated to a low-scoring 2-0 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Chicago on Thursday. Montreal is coming off a 5-1 loss in Boston last night. That's notable as the 'over' has gone 10-1 in the Habs last 11 road games in the second of back-to-backs, resulting in an average total of 7.6 goals. The Blackhawks are back home after scoring 10 goals over the course of a three-game road trip. Note that the 'over' is 12-3 the last 15 times Chicago comes off a road win by two or more goals, as is the case here following Tuesday's 4-2 victory in Columbus. That situation has produced an average total of 7.6 goals as well. While the Habs are missing a number of key contributors up front and have had an awful time trying to find the back of the net, this is a more favorable matchup than they've seen recently (their last four games have come at Tampa, Carolina, Florida and Boston), noting that the Hawks allow 3.4 goals per game on home ice this season. Montreal will likely be forced to go with Sam Montembault between the pipes in this one after he came on in relief of an injured Jake Allen last night. Montembault has allowed a whopping 17 goals in his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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01-10-22 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Despite a relatively low-scoring playoff series between these two teams last spring, we've still seen four of the last seven meetings here in Washington go 'over' the total and I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair as well. Boston has scored exactly five goals in three of its last four games and is well-positioned for another strong offensive performance here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Bruins coming off a division win this season, as is the case here, as they've averaged 3.9 goals in that spot with an average total of 7.0 goals. The Caps have been held to three goals or less in four straight games - their longest such streak of the season. Keep in mind, three of those last four contests were played on the road. Here at home, Washington averages 3.5 goals per game this season with an average total of 6.1 goals. We'll note that the 'over' is 25-14 the last 39 times the Caps have come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*) |
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01-08-22 | Maple Leafs v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Colorado at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. This isn't likely to be a popular play on Saturday night but that doesn't mean it isn't the right one. The Leafs are likely going to be without Mitch Marner due to Covid protocols. Note that Toronto checks in averaging just 2.2 goals the last five times it has played on the road off four or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Avs have allowed only 1.8 goals per game the last 19 times they've played at home off a contest that totalled at least seven goals, which is also the case tonight. The 'under' is 12-3 with the Leafs playing on the road off a home win by two goals or more with that spot producing an average total of only 5.0 goals while the 'under' is a perfect 11-0 with the Avs playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.3 goals. That's the scenario here after the Leafs skated to a wild 8-3 home win over the Avs earlier this season. Take the under (8*). |
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01-07-22 | Capitals v. Blues UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both the Capitals and Blues will be looking to bounce back from losses on Friday night with Washington coming off a 4-3 home loss against the Devils and St. Louis fresh off a tough 5-3 loss in Pittsburgh - a game in which they blew a 3-2 third period lead. You would have to go back three meetings to find the last time a matchup between these two teams went 'over' five goals. Note that the Caps are giving up just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season while the Blues have allowed just 2.4 goals per game on home ice. Here, we'll also note that the 'under' is a stellar 15-5 the last 20 times the Blues have come off consecutive games totalling seven goals or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of only 4.8 goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 5-0 the last five times St. Louis has played at home after winning four or five of its last six games, producing an average total of only 4.4 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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12-30-21 | Canadiens v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canadiens couldn't have gotten a worse draw coming out of the holiday break, first facing the Lightning in Tampa before heading to Raleigh to take on the Hurricanes, all while being undermanned due to Covid protocols. It's dire straights for the Habs on defense and between the pipes right now and things don't figure to improve against a Hurricanes squad that will have most of its key contributors up front back from Covid quarantine on Thursday. However, Carolina will be without goaltender Frederik Andersen meaning we should see Antti Rantta in goal for this one. That does open the door for a Habs offense that had considerable success, albeit against the Lightning's third-string goaltender on Tuesday. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair here. Take the over (8*). |
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12-15-21 | Rangers v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' as the Rangers continue their road trip in Glendale on Wednesday night. This is of course a back-to-back spot for New York after losing by a 4-2 score in Colorado last night (we won with the Avalanche in that game). You have to wonder whether New York will go back to Alex Georgiev in goal as this would be his third game in the last four nights and fourth in the last six. Georgiev has been serviceable this season but certainly not elite, posting an .898 save percentage. Keith Kinkaid was the backup last night while Igor Shesterkin continues to work his way back from injury and likely isn't ready to go just yet. The Coyotes will have Scott Wedgewood in goal. In his last five contests, the Coyotes have given up 3, 4, 5, 3 and 5 goals. Note that the 'Yotes are allowing a whopping 4.6 goals per game on home ice this season. While they average just 2.3 goals per game here in Glendale, they are in a favorable spot here, noting that they average 2.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive home losses over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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12-02-21 | Blues v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw seven total goals between these two teams in the front half of this home-and-home series two nights ago. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Tampa on Thursday. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in the Blues last 14 road games when coming off consecutive contests in which they allowed three goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blues have played on the road after allowing 3+ goals in three straight games, producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. The Lightning will be looking to tighten things up after consecutive losses in which they allowed eight goals. Note that they're giving up just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. They should have Andrei Vasilevskiy back between the pipes after journeyman backup Brian Elliott manned the net in Tuesday's loss. Vasilevskiy owns a .926 save percentage this season compared to Elliott's .887. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-21 | Canucks v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has cashed in consecutive games for each of these teams heading into Wednesday's clash in Pittsburgh. I expect a different story to unfold here, however. Note that the last time these two teams matched up in the Steel City they combined to score a whopping 14 goals. Interestingly, Thatcher Demko started that game for the Canucks two years ago and he's likely to be between the pipes again here. Vancouver has allowed just three goals over its last two games but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, it will be facing a Penguins squad returning home off a successful Canadian road trip and one that's in line for an offensive breakout, noting that Vancouver is allowing 4.1 goals per game on the road this season. On the flip side, the Pens have given up a grand total of just three goals over their last four games - another unsustainable trend in my opinion and we can expect the Canucks to come in with an attacking mentality knowing their penchant for giving up goals on the road. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Penguins v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Winnipeg at 8:35 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to December of 2015 to find the last time a matchup between these two teams in Winnipeg stayed 'under' seven total goals. We're able to play this one at a 5.5 largely due to the fact that the Penguins have seen two of their last three games total three goals or less while the Jets are coming off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is 21-10 when the Pens come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets have seen an average total of 6.5 goals the last 16 times they've come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-21 | Capitals v. Sharks OVER 6 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Caps in their last game - a 2-0 victory in Los Angeles on Wednesday. They've managed to collect three of a possible four points in the first two games of their western road trip, with each of their last two contests staying 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in San Jose. This has been a high-scoring series with the last four meetings going back to the start of 2019 totaling 13, 6, 7 and 9 total goals. Here, we'll also note that the 'over' is 17-4 the last 21 times the Caps have come off a game that totaled three goals or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. As for the Sharks, they've seen an average total of 6.5 goals the last 23 times they've come off three losses in their last four games. I'll also point out that this could be an Adin Hill game in goal for San Jose after James Reimer started the last two games. That's notable as Hill has posted a less than impressive .894 save percentage this season with the 'over' cashing in five of his eight starts. Take the over (9*). |
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11-16-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Stars last five games but I see this as a favorable spot for that trend to reverse as the Red Wings roll into Dallas on the back half of a back-to-back. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games going back to last season with that situation producing an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 the last 13 times the Wings have played on the road following a game that totaled eight goals or more, as is the case here after last night's 5-3 loss in Columbus (we won with the Blue Jackets in that game). That spot has led to an average total of 4.6 goals. As for the Stars, the 'under' is 18-7 the last 25 times they've come off five or more consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 174-130, averaging 5.3 total goals, when Dallas comes off a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. We'll likely see Alex Nedeljkovic in goal for the Wings tonight after Thomas Greiss started last night. Nedeljkovic has been the better goaltender this season, posting a solid .929 save percentage in four road games. While the 'over' has cashed in two of the last three meetings in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 6-3 in the last nine matchups between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Sabres v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have been trending toward the 'over' lately and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. The Sabres have seen five of their last six games go 'over' the total as their defensive and goaltending woes continue. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 21-9 in their last 30 games when coming off a one-goal loss, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. While not much was expected from the Sabres offensively this season, they have actually been pretty consistent in that regard, scoring two goals or more in nine straight games and three or more in seven of those nine contests. The Pens check in having allowed a whopping 12 goals over their last two games - both losses. Like Buffalo, Pittsburgh has an ongoing problem with keeping the puck out of its own net. Note that the 'over' is a staggering 11-1 in the Pens last 12 games following a road loss by two goals or more, producing an average total of 8.2 goals in that spot. Tristan Jarry will likely get the start in goal for the Pens in this one. His last four home starts against the Sabres have resulted in 12, 7, 7 and 6 total goals. If we don't see Jarry in this one that would mean Casey DeSmith would get the start and he has posted an ugly .856 save percentage in three games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Canucks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Anaheim at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Ducks are coming off a seven-goal explosion against Seattle on Thursday, which came on the heels of a 3-2 win over the same Canucks they'll face again on Sunday. Note that you would have to go back three meetings here in Anaheim to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than three goals. Here, we'll note that the Ducks have posted a 1-11 o/u record when playing at home off a win by two goals or more going back to last season with that situation totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is 13-4 the last 17 times Anaheim has played at home after putting up four goals or more in their last game, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.7 goals in that spot. As for the Canucks, the 'under' is a long-term winner at 74-58 with them playing on the road looking for revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent, with that situation leading to an average total of 5.1 goals. Also note that the Canucks average just 2.2 goals when coming off a game that totaled eight goals or more going back to last season (16-game sample size). Jaro Halak may get the start in goal for Vancouver tonight but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he has arguably been better than regular starter Thatcher Demko, who started last night's 7-4 loss in Las Vegas. Meanwhile, both John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz have exceeded admittedly low expectations between the pipes in Anaheim this season. Take the under (6*). |
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11-11-21 | Islanders v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Islanders collapsed in the third period in Sunday's 5-2 loss to the Wild (we won with Minnesota in that game). If you know the Islanders and their style of play under head coach Barry Trotz, you know that they'll be determined to tighten things up in advance of Thursday's game against the Devils. Keep in mind, they last time they allowed five goals in a game this season, they followed that up with a 4-1 win in Chicago. This game sets up similarly. Here, the Devils check in off consecutive wins including a wild 7-3 victory over the Panthers (who were in a tough back-to-back spot with their backup goaltender forced to start both games) on Tuesday night. That sets New Jersey up in a spot here where it has gone 0-10 the last 10 times it has come off consecutive wins, averaging just 1.8 goals in that situation. Ordinarily, the Devils have a tendency to give up a lot of goals in that situation - an average of 4.4 to be exact. However, I'm not sure the Isles are well-positioned to take advantage offensively here. New York has averaged just 1.8 goals itself when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more going back to last season (11-game sample size). The 'under' is 23-9 with the Isles coming off a loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. You would have to go all the way back to January of 2018 to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than five goals in a game here in Newark. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Wild v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. After being held to a grand total of three goals over a five-game stretch we saw the Coyotes finally break out and earn their first win of the season in the process in their most recent game - a 5-4 victory over the expansion Kraken on Saturday. They've now scored 10 goals in three home games this season and I believe they're well-positioned to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total on Wednesday as well. Minnesota has had no such problems scoring goals. In fact, the Wild check in having won three straight games, scoring 13 goals in regulation time along the way. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times the Wild have come off a win by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen Minnesota allow an ugly 3.9 goals on average the last 21 times they've come off a home win by two goals or more. The Coyotes on the other hand have posted a 24-13 o/u record after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. Arizona averages 3.2 goals when playing at home after giving up four goals or more in its most recent contest going back to last season as well. Of course, the 'Yotes have had major issues between the pipes this season. They've already used four different goaltenders and none of them have fared all that well. On the flip side, the Wild haven't been all that stout at the back end either. Cam Talbot has been the better of their goaltending duo but even he owns a less than impressive .904 save percentage. The most recent meeting in this series totaled just five goals here in Arizona last April. To find the last time consecutive meetings in Arizona stayed 'under' six total goals you would have to go back to a stretch between December 2015 and April 2017 - that's going back eight meetings here in the desert. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Predators v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. Last week I talked at length about how the Stars could see their o/u record start to reverse course toward the 'over' after a string of eight consecutive 'under' results to start the season. We saw just that as each of their last three games went 'over' the total. I expect a return to 'normal' as they return home on Wednesday to host the Predators, however. The Preds have posted a 4-8 o/u mark so far this season. Interestingly, if you only consider games where they've followed up at least two days off, the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0. That's the case here as they've been idle since Sunday in Chicago. Here, we'll note that the Stars have posted a 1-10 o/u mark in their last 11 home games when coming off a road loss, resulting in an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also a solid 24-11 the last 35 times they've come off three losses in their last four games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals in that situation. As for the Preds, they've had a tendency to get involved in tighter, lower-scoring games as road trips wear on, having posted a 6-16 o/u mark when playing on the road off two or more consecutive road games going back to last season. That spot has produced an average total of 5.0 goals and is already a perfect 2-0 to the 'under' on their current road trip. The last two meetings between these two teams in Dallas did go 'over' the total. We haven't seen three straight matchups in Big D between the Preds and Stars go 'over' since back in 2018-2019. Take the under (8*). |
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11-09-21 | Blues v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Blues most recent game - a 4-1 loss in Anaheim on Sunday night. St. Louis jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first minute of that game but never scored again in a lopsided defeat. The Blues know they'll need to be better offensively if they're going to salvage anything from the finale of this four-game road trip in Winnipeg on Tuesday night. As I've noted before, the 'over' is now 21-12 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 6.7 goals in that spot. While St. Louis is now missing Brayden Schenn and Torey Krug, it recently welcomed back Ryan O'Reilly from Covid protocol. As for the Jets, they were shut out by the Islanders on home ice on Saturday. That sets us up well for a high-scoring affair here, noting that the 'over' has gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Jets have come off a game in which they scored one goal or less, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. You would have to go back three meetings here in Winnipeg to find the last time a game between these two teams stayed 'under' the total. Also note that the last time Connor Hellebuyck didn't start a game in this series, we saw 12 total goals in a wild 8-4 Jets victory. Hellebuyck is questionable to play on Tuesday as he continues to deal with an illness. Even if he can go, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring contest. Take the over (8*). |
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11-08-21 | Panthers v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Now that the starting goaltenders appear locked in for this game I am going to make a small play on the 'under'. Spencer Knight looks like he'll get the call for the Panthers in goal as Sergei Bobrovsky isn't quite ready to return from a lower body injury. I don't mind Knight being in goal here at all, in fact I like it as he has posted a solid .918 save percentage this season and is by all accounts the Panthers goaltender of the future. As for the Rangers, they'll go back to Igor Shesterkin after he gave up six goals in Calgary on Saturday night. Keep in mind, the last time he allowed five goals or more this season (also against the Flames) he followed up that game with a shutout against the Blue Jackets. The Panthers have other injury concerns as well with Sasha Barkov a game-time decision tonight. His impact on the team offensively is obvious. We'll make this play assuming he'll be in the lineup but if he's sidelined again we'll consider it a bonus. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Panthers playing on the road off a home win in which they scored four goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here. As for the Rangers, the 'under' is 8-1 the last nine times they've played at home after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 5.2 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 12-3 the last 15 times when playing at home after a loss by two goals or more, with an average total of 5.3 goals in that situation. Take the under (5*). |
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11-07-21 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Anaheim at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. After an inexplicable seven-game 'over' streak we've seen each of the Ducks last two games stay 'under' the total and I anticipate more of the same as they host the Blues on Sunday night. The Blues are coming off an 'over' result last time out against the Sharks (we won with the 'over' in that game) and that's notable as the 'under' has gone 43-27 when they follow up such a result over the last 2+ seasons. The 'under' is also 37-22 with St. Louis coming off a game in which seven or more total goals were scored over the same stretch, as is the case here. As for the Ducks, the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times they've played at home after a win by two goals or more, as is the case here following Friday's 3-1 win over Arizona. While the Blues are expected to get Ryan O'Reilly back in the lineup on Sunday, they're now without Brayden Schenn and Torey Krug. Meanwhile, the Ducks are dealing with possible absences of Jakob Silfverberg and Trevor Zegras. Goaltender John Gibson could miss as well but that's not overly concerning as backup Anthony Stolarz has performed well, posting a .912 save percentage in four games. Take the under (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Devils v. Kings OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Kings 'over' in their most recent game against the Blues - a 3-2 shootout victory on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. New Jersey is coming off a low-scoring game of its own - ending a stretch of three straight games that totaled at least six goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 10-3 the last 13 times the Devils have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 6.3 goals in that situation. Better still, the 'over' is 12-3 with the Devils coming off a game that totaled four goals or less going back to last season, producing a total of 6.7 goals on average in that spot. This is a situation where the Devils themselves have fared well offensively, noting that they average an impressive 3.9 goals when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons. As for the Kings, they've held three straight opponents to exactly two goals. I don't believe that level of defensive success is sustainable, especially with Drew Doughty sidelined and a relatively weak goaltending tandem of Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen. Speaking of goaltenders, the Devils have leaned on three different ones already this season as they try to tread water until MacKenzie Blackwood can return. While neither of these teams are known for their offensive prowess, I'm expecting plenty of goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blues 3-2 shootout loss in Los Angeles last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday as they head to San Jose to take on the undermanned Sharks. Note that the 'over' has gone 44-27 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result over the L2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. It's also worth mentioning that the Blues have allowed 3.4 goals on average when coming off a one-goal loss over the same stretch (35-game sample size), good for an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. As for the Sharks, they've averaged 3.5 goals with an average total of 6.3 goals when playing at home off a home game where both teams scored three or more goals, as is the case here following Tuesday's 5-3 win over the Sabres. This series produced some wild, high-scoring affairs last season with four of eight meetings totaling at least seven goals and one of those contests reaching a whopping 13 goals right here in San Jose. Take the over (7*). |
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11-04-21 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Lightning in their most recent game - a 3-2 victory over the Capitals on Monday. We also won with the 'under' in the Leafs 4-0 shutout victory over the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Here, I'll back the 'under' again as Toronto continues its homestand against the surging Lightning on Thursday. Tampa Bay has won three games in a row, scoring 13 goals in the process. I still feel the Lightning are somewhat depleted offensively this season and the numbers bear it out as they've been held to three runs or less in six of nine games so far this season. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 the last 11 times the Lightning have played on the road off a home win, with that situation producing just 4.7 total goals on average. The Leafs have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games and here we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-1 in their last 11 home games off a home win by two goals or more over the last season-plus, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. The 'under' is also 12-3 with the Leafs playing at home after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 5.7 goals. Of course, these two teams haven't met since before the pandemic in early March 2020. That last meeting took place here in Toronto and totaled just three goals in a 2-1 Leafs victory. Take the under (9*). |
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11-04-21 | Golden Knights v. Senators UNDER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Senators most recent game - a 5-4 overtime loss in Minnesota on Tuesday. In fact, we also won in their previous game, fading them against the Blackhawks in Monday's 5-1 loss. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Sens return home to host the Golden Knights. Vegas is coming off a 4-0 loss in Toronto on Tuesday (we cashed a free play on the 'under' in that game). Scoring goals with any sort of consistency has been an issue for the Golden Knights this season, largely due to injuries to three of their top offensive threats in Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and most recently William Karlsson. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Golden Knights playing on the road off a game in which they allowed four goals or more going back to last season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.4 goals. The 'under' is also 17-8 with the Knights playing on the road off a loss over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. On the flip side, the Senators have seen the 'under' go 10-1 the last 11 times they've played at home after losing four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, with an average total of only 4.7 goals scored in that situation. Reeling off back-to-back losses in which they gave up nine goals in regulation time, I do expect Ottawa to tighten things up here. On the flip side, you would have to go back five meetings to find the lat time the Sens scored more than three goals in a game against Vegas. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-21 | Blues v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. When we last saw these two teams square off they combined to score just three goals with the Blues contributing all of the offense in a 3-0 shutout win. Keep in mind, that was in the back half of a two-game set in St. Louis. Here, I look for the Kings to put up more of a fight and expect a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the Blues are coming off a 1-0 win over the Blackhawks on Saturday. That actually sets us up well for an 'over' result here, noting that the 'over' has gone 23-11 when the Blues come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals. Better still, the 'over' is 8-1 over that same stretch when St. Louis comes off a game that totaled three goals or less, leading to an average total of 8.0 goals. The Blues have averaged 3.6 goals when coming off a one-goal victory over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here but they've also allowed 3.0 goals on average after winning four or five of their last six games going back to last season. While the Kings have been fairly inconsistent offensively, they haven't been as prone to scoring droughts as they were last season - at least not so far this season - checking in averaging 2.7 goals per game overall with that average jumping to 3.6 goals here at Staples Center. Take the over (10*). |
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11-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 4-3 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Blackhawks in their 5-1 victory on Monday night. That came against the lowly Senators in a game where they were provided a big emotional lift with the return of Patrick Kane, who came up big with a hat trick. They should find the going a little tougher in a quick rematch against the Canes, who defeated them by a 6-3 score in Carolina last Friday (we won with the 'over' in that game). Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blackhawks have played at home after scoring five goals or more in their previous game, with an average total of just 4.0 goals scored in that spot. The Canes are rolling right now, off to a perfect 8-0 start to the season. Here, they'll be heading on the road following a four-game homestand. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 8-1 the last nine times that situation has come up going back to last season, resulting in an average total of only 4.6 goals. I don't see this contest playing out like last Friday's wild, high-scoring affair that saw both teams start their 'backup' goaltenders (Antti Raanta for the Canes and Kevin Lankinen for the Blackhawks). We're likely to see Frederik Andersen (.956 save percentage in seven games this season) and Marc-Andre Fleury (who has allowed just two goals on 67 shots over his last two games) on Wednesday night. Take the under (8*). |
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11-02-21 | Senators v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won by fading the Senators last night as they fell by a 5-1 score in Chicago. They've been giving up goals in bunches lately, allowing a whopping 16 in their last 10 periods of hockey. With that in mind, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in Tuesday's contest as the Sens continue their road trip in Minnesota. The Wild were held to just five goals over the course of a 1-2 road trip. I look for them to bounce back offensively here at home where we've seen them score 12 goals in three games this season. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Wild have come off three consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, producing an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. The 'over' is also 16-5 the last 21 times Minnesota has played at home off consecutive road losses by two goals or more, good for an average total of 6.5 goals. As for the Sens, they've seen the 'over' cash at a 15-4 clip the last 19 times they've played on the road after losing two of their last three games, as is the case here, with an average total of 7.2 goals scored in that situation. These two teams last met in 2019. They matched up in Minnesota once in 2018 and then again in 2019 with those two games totaling 10 and 9 goals, respectively. Take the over (8*). |
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11-02-21 | Red Wings v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these struggling teams are coming off high-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday night in Montreal. The Red Wings fell short in Toronto on Saturday night, dropping a 5-4 loss against the Maple Leafs. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last season-plus resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. We've seen Detroit score four goals or more on three previous occasions this season and in all three cases, it followed that performance with an 'under' result. The Canadiens are coming off a 4-2 loss in Anaheim on Sunday. The 'under' is 9-2 with the Habs playing at home off consecutive 'over' results going back to last season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.5 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Canadiens v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Anaheim at 4 pm et on Sunday. The Canadiens woes continued yesterday as they fell by a 5-2 score in Los Angeles. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Habs playing on the road after allowing five goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 22-11 with Montreal playing on the road following an 'over' result over the same stretch, producing an average total of 5.1 goals. As for the Ducks, they're on a streak of six consecutive 'over' results. The 'under' is a long-term winner at 104-73 with the Ducks coming off consecutive games in which seven or more total goals were scored, as is the case here. I'll also point out that Anaheim averages a miserable 1.1 goals when playing at home after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals (14-game sample size). Take the under (7*). |
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10-31-21 | Coyotes v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Carolina at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Hurricanes 6-3 rout of Chicago on Friday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the reeling Coyotes roll into Carolina. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 with the Canes coming off five or more consecutive games in which they scored three goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 10-3 with the Canes at home off three or more consecutive home games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. Interestingly, Carolina has come off a game that totaled nine or more goals four times over the last season-plus and in its next contest, it has averaged a woeful 1.3 goals with an average total of only 4.1 goals scored. Arizona has been absolutely dreadful offensively but does come off a game in which it allowed only two goals in a shutout loss against the Capitals. Take the under (9*). |
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10-30-21 | Jets v. Sharks UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and San Jose at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been involved in some high-scoring games this season. In fact, they've already matched up once, right here in San Jose back on October 16th. That game totaled seven goals. Here, I look for a different story to unfold however. Note that the Jets have averaged just 2.0 goals the last 17 times they've played on the road off four or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is 17-7 with the Jets playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals. The 'under' is also 17-5 with the Sharks coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, producing an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Finally, the 'under' has gone an impressive 35-18 with the Sharks coming off a game in which they gave up four or more goals over the same stretch. While the 'over' did cash in the first matchup between these teams this season, the 'under' has actually cashed in two of their last three meetings here in San Jose. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 102 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I certainly don't expect a distracted Blackhawks team to clamp down defensively in this one as they check in having yet to win a game in seven tries this season, allowing a whopping 4.3 goals per game along the way. We do find the Hurricanes in a spot where they have been vulnerable recently, however, noting that they've allowed 3.5 goals on average the last six times they've come off consecutive home wins by two goals or more, as is the case here. On the flip side of that, Carolina averages 4.2 goals when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. The Canes are likely to be up against Blackhawks goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury in this one and he's mired in one of the worst stretches of his entire career. Fleury owns an ugly .839 save percentage in four games this season. Those four games have totaled 6, 7, 5 and 9 goals. Carolina, meanwhile, is likely to give Antti Raanta his first start of the season. That's certainly worth pointing out when you consider how well Frederik Andersen has performed, recording a .956 save percentage while taking the net in all six games to date (the 'under' has gone 4-2 in those contests). The Blackhawks were a bad team last year as well, but still managed to score 10 goals in four games played here in Carolina (at least two in all four contests). Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Bruins v. Panthers UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Florida at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off fairly high-scoring contests with the Bruins prevailing by a 4-3 score over the Sharks and the Panthers skating to a 5-3 win over the Coyotes. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair when they match up in Sunrise on Wednesday night. The Bruins have actually topped out at four goals in their first four games this season, alternating high and low-scoring games as they check in sporting a 2-2 o/u mark. Here, I'll note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 with the Bruins playing on the road off a one-goal win over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.3 goals. The 'under' is also a rock solid 11-3 when the Bruins come off consecutive games in which they scored four or more goals over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, good for an average of just 4.9 total goals scored in that spot. On the flip side, the Panthers are in a strong 'under' situation here, noting that the 'under' has gone 64-35 in their last 99 home games after scoring three or more goals in three straight games, resulting in an average total of just 5.3 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Panthers coming off five or more consecutive wins, producing an average total of 4.9 goals in that spot. The last time these two teams met we saw just three total goals - that game was also played in Florida. Both of tonight's expected starting goaltenders come in playing well with Linus Ullmark doing his best to win the starting job over Jeremy Swayman having posted a .935 save percentage in two games and Sergei Bobrovsky performing as well as he has at any point in his career, sporting a .942 save percentage through four games. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Jets v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' when these two teams met in Winnipeg last week, thanks only to a late flurry of goals from the Jets in what turned out to be a lopsided contest. Here, I'm expecting the Ducks to offer a little more resistance, and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of Winnipeg's last four games and each of Anaheim's last three. Interestingly enough, the last time we saw a Jets 'under' result came right here in Anaheim back in their season-opening 4-1 loss to the Ducks. Here we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 the last 12 times the Jets have played on the road after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.9 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-2 the last 12 times the Ducks have come off three consecutive 'over' results, good for an average total of only 4.5 goals. I'll also point out that the Ducks have given up just 2.6 goals per game the last 11 times they've come off consecutive road losses. We haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series produce more than five total goals since back in January/February of 2019. Take the under (9*). |
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10-26-21 | Sharks v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Nashville at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. With both of these teams having seen the 'over' cash in their last two games a high total in Tuesday's matchup may appear warranted at first glance. I'm expecting a different story to unfold, however. While it's been a little while since these two teams last faced each other, the two rosters aren't all that different from what we saw when they squared off in games totaling just three and four goals back in November and December of 2019. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 with the Sharks playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last season-plus, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. Likewise, the 'under' has gone 18-7 with the Predators playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 with the Preds returning home off a road win over the same stretch, with an average total of just 3.8 goals scored. We've seen the Preds tighten things up in similar scheduling situations as well, allowing only 2.1 goals on average when playing for the third time in four nights over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-21 | Lightning v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Now that it appears Brian Elliott will be in goal for his Lightning debut on Monday night, we'll step in with a play on the 'over'. Tampa Bay is coming off consecutive losses but with this being the first game of a back-to-back set (which concludes on Tuesday in Pittsburgh), Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the night off. The Bolts have now been held to three goals or less in three straight games since scoring seven in a victory over Detroit back on October 14th. Here, I believe they're well-positioned to bust out of their offensive slump. Note that the 'over' is 12-3 the last 15 times the Sabres have come off a road loss by one goal, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, Buffalo checks in averaging 3.7 goals when coming off an overtime loss over the last 2+ seasons, a is the case here following its 2-1 OT loss in New Jersey on Saturday. You would have to go back four meetings to find the last time a matchup between these two teams produced fewer than seven total goals. The last three times they've met in a game that didn't feature Andrei Vasievskiy between the pipes we saw final scores totaling nine, eight and nine goals. Take the over (10*). |
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10-24-21 | Islanders v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Sunday. The Islanders haven't met a low-scoring game they didn't like and off another one last night in Arizona (they won 3-0) we'll call for a tightly-contested affair on Sunday night in Las Vegas. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Isles playing on the road off a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. Likewise, the 'under' is 16-5 with the Knights coming off a game in which they gave up five goals or more, as is the case here following Friday's 5-3 loss to the Oilers. That situation has led to an average total of just 4.6 goals scored as well. Take the under (8*). |
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10-22-21 | Oilers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Oilers have come flying out of the gates this season, scoring 18 goals through four games (19 officially but one goal was a result of earning a shootout win). I don't believe their offensive surge is sustainable, however. Note that Edmonton averages only 2.5 goals when playing on the road after registering a road win by two goals or more, as is the case here following last night's 5-1 win in Arizona. The 'under' has gone 9-2 in that spot over the last year. Meanwhile, the 'under' checks in 7-1 when the Knights play at home after giving up 3+ goals in consecutive games over the same period, resulting in an average total of just 3.7 goals. This has not been a high-scoring series by any means with five of six all-time meetings between these two teams in Vegas staying 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wild, high-scoring games last time out with the Oilers holding on for a 6-5 win over the Ducks and the Coyotes dropping their third straight game to open the season by a 7-4 score against the Blues. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday in Glendale. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-4 with the Oilers playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. Also note that the Oilers check in allowing only 2.5 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in their last contest over the last 2+ seasons. Meanwhile, the Coyotes have given up an average of only 2.3 goals when coming off a home loss by two or more goals over the last 2+ seasons. The situation hasn't come up all that often over the years but when the Coyotes play at home with a total of 6.0 or higher, the 'under' has cashed at a 17-6 clip, good for an average total of just 5.1 goals scored. It's been a while since these teams last met but when they did, the Coyotes skated to a low-scoring 3-0 win here in Glendale back in 2020. In fact, four of the last five meetings in Arizona have totaled five goals or less. Take the under (7*). |
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10-21-21 | Canucks v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter Thursday's game struggling with the Canucks off consecutive losses and just 1-3 on the season and the Blackhawks yet to pick up a single win through four games. Here, I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks. Note that the 'over' is 15-6 with the Blackhawks coming off a a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals. The 'over' has cashed at an identical 15-6 clip with the Canucks coming off two losses in their last three games over that same stretch, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the Canucks have had a tendency to 'let go of the rope' on long road trips, having given up a whopping 4.5 goals on average after playing three or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with a 15-game sample size. That situation has produced an average total of 6.8 goals. It's been a while since these two teams have met but three of five matchups since the start of 2019 have totaled at least seven goals and going back further, 10 of their last 12 meetings have reached at least six goals. Take the over (8*). |
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10-21-21 | Ducks v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We're being offered a very reasonable price to back the 'under' in this one, largely due to the fact that the Ducks are coming off a wild 6-5 loss in Edmonton while the Jets have seen their last two contests total seven and nine goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Ducks playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average of only 4.5 total goals. Meanwhile, the Jets have posted a 14-26 o/u record, averaging only 2.5 goals per game with an average total of 5.3 goals after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. Interestingly, Winnipeg also averages just 2.4 goals per game when playing at home off an 'over' result over the last 2+ seasons. On a positive note for the Jets, they allow only 2.1 goals per game when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the same stretch. Take the under (6*). |
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10-20-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are off to a red hot start this season, scoring 12 goals in recording back-to-back road wins over the Avalanche and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are coming off a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Kings in Los Angeles last time out. That sets them up well here, noting that they average 4.1 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. I do question whether they can keep the Blues offense at bay, however, noting that St. Louis averages 3.4 goals when coming off a win of any kind over the last 2+ seasons and by all accounts has its best offensive team in years here in 2021-22. While the Knights will be missing two of its top goal scorers in Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, I believe that will allow their depth to shine through in the short-term. Note that Stone's defensive play might be missed even more than his offensive work. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with nine of the last 11 meetings going 'over' the total. Last year's three meetings that featured the goaltending matchup of Jordan Binnington vs. Robin Lehner (which is expected tonight) totaled nine, six and seven goals. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Jets v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Jets and Wild on Tuesday night in the State of Hockey. The 'under' has actually combined to go a perfect 4-0 in games involving these teams this season but that only helps keep Tuesday's total at a reasonable number. Note that the Jets managed to score three goals despite firing only 23 shots on goal in Saturday's loss in San Jose. In Winnipeg's season-opening 4-1 loss in Anaheim it recorded 34 shots on goal. Here, we find the Jets averaging 3.3 goals per game when coming off a road loss over the last 2+ seasons. When playing three or more consecutive road games, they check in averaging 3.5 goals per contest. As for the Wild, the 'over' has gone 17-7 when they come off consecutive games in which they allowed two goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, leading to an average total of 6.7 goals. Similarly, the 'over' is 37-22 the last 59 times they've come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, good for an average total of 6.6 goals. Take the over (8*). |
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10-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We saw totals set at '5' in this same matchup down the stretch last season and I fully expect to see that number return in later season tilts between these two. Both are coming off low-scoring affairs. The Blue Jackets prevailed in overtime by a 2-1 score against the expansion Kraken on Saturday while the Red Wings skated to a 3-1 victory over the Canucks. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-3 with the Blue Jackets playing on the road off consecutive home games over the last 2+ seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Jackets have played on the road off a win as they've averaged just 2.2 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 17-5 the last 22 times Columbus has followed up consecutive victories, as is the case here, good for an average total of only 4.9 goals. The Red Wings check in averaging a woeful 1.8 goals per game when playing at home following a home victory by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing all six times that situation has come up. When playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, the Wings have averaged a ridiculous 1.2 goals per contest, with the 'under' also cashing at a perfect 6-0 clip in that spot. While the last two meetings between the Jackets and Wings were high-scoring affairs, the 'under' remains a solid 59-40 (excluding pushes) all-time and 28-20 in games played here in Detroit. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Stars v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Stars have seen the 'under' cash in all three games so far this season while the Penguins have delivered 'over' results in all three of their games to date - despite playing without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 with the Penguins playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.0 goals. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-12 with the Stars having given up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of only 5.0 goals. Pittsburgh's home-opener totaled seven goals but featured only 46 combined shots on goal. The Pens allowed only 20 shots in the game. After giving up a whopping 73 shots on goal in their first two games, the Stars tightened things up allowing only 27 shots in a losing effort in Ottawa on Sunday. Take the under (6*). |
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10-19-21 | Avalanche v. Capitals OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With Nathan MacKinnon ready to take the ice for the first time this season, we'll take a flyer on the 'over' as the Avalanche play their first road game of the season in Washington on Tuesday night. I think the Capitals are going to be involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season. Washington's blue-line anchors John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov aren't getting any younger and the Caps are only average between the pipes (Ilya Samsonov is expected to get his first start of the season tonight). In this spot, we'll note that the Caps have posted a 14-3 o/u record when coming off a game where three goals or less were scored over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here following Saturday's 2-1 home loss to the Lightning. That situation has produced an average total of 6.8 goals. Also note that the 'over' has gone 23-12 with the Capitals coming off consecutive home games, a spot in which they've averaged 3.6 goals with those games totaling an average of 6.7 goals over the last 2+ seasons. Even without MacKinnon on the ice, the Avs have scored seven goals through two games this season. They average a whopping 4.3 goals per game when coming off consecutive home games over the last two seasons. Take the over (5*). |
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10-18-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kraken opened the season with consecutive high-scoring games - dropping a 4-3 decision in Las Vegas before picking up their first franchise victory by an identical 4-3 score in Nashville. Last time out we saw Seattle involved in a low-scoring affair as it fell 2-1 in overtime in Columbus. Here, I believe the stage is set for the Kraken to get involved in a back-and-forth, high-scoring game against the Flyers. Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 deficit late in the third period to force overtime against the Canucks on Friday but ultimately fell in a shootout. Flyers goaltender Carter Hart picked up right where he left off last season, struggling mightily between the pipes. It's getting to the point now where it's difficult to envision any sort of 'quick fix' for Hart. The good news is, the Flyers do have plenty of offensive firepower, as we saw in Friday's comeback against the Canucks. Here, I'll note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game after scoring four goals or more in its previous game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals scored. The 'over' has also gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Flyers have played at home with the total set at 6.0 goals (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 7.3 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Coyotes v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll keep my analysis brief with puck drop going shortly in Buffalo. Arizona will give Karel Vejmelka his first NHL start in goal while the Sabres go with Dustin Tokarski. Of course, the Yotes were involved in a wild 8-2 loss in Columbus two nights ago while Buffalo rolled to a blowout win over the Habs. Expect plenty of goals in this one as well, even with both teams fairly short on scoring depth up front. Take the over (5*). |
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10-06-21 | Capitals v. Bruins OVER 6 | 4-3 | Win | 115 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Boston at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We'll make this play now as the total appears to be on the move, noting that I would still recommend a play at '6'. Both teams sent their 'B' squads to the ice last time out. Here, as the two teams look to bounce back (Washington has lost all four preseason games while Boston has lost its last two). The Caps do still have one more preseason game to go on Friday night at home against Philadelphia before opening the regular season next Wednesday against the Rangers. As for the Bruins, this game will put a wrap on their preseason schedule. I fully expect them to push the pace in this one but the Caps will certainly be along for the ride. Take the over (6*). |
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07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We've alternated playing the 'over' and 'under' in the first three games in this series, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. I'll stick with that approach here in Game 4 as I anticipate a different type of affair than we saw in Saturday's wide-open 6-3 Lightning victory. Saturday's game essentially turned on two Tampa Bay goals in the opening four minutes. Were it not for the Lightning building a considerable lead it's unlikely they would have given up three goals, noting that they had allowed a grand total of just two goals through the first two games of the series. The Lightning check in allowing just 2.0 goals per game in the playoffs while the Canadiens have allowed 2.5. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Lightning playing on the road after a game where nine or more goals were scored over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average of just 4.4 total goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 8-1 clip with the Lightning looking to close out a series on the road over the last two seasons with an average total of just 4.0 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Canadiens seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored five or more goals this season. That situation has produced an average total of 5.0 goals. The Lightning have certainly looked unstoppable offensively in this series but it's not as if that's been the case from start to finish in these playoffs. They've actually scored three goals or less in 10 of their last 15 games with the 'under' going 8-5-2 over that stretch (10-5-2 over their last 17 games). I was waiting this one out hoping the total might finally move off of 5.0 to 5.5 but it doesn't look like that's going to happen, rightfully so (although that's certainly an option as an alternate total at most books, albeit at a steeper price). Take the under (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens OVER 5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 and the 'under' in Game 2 of this series and here, I'll go back to the well with the 'over' as the scene shifts to Montreal for Game 3. Tampa Bay is obviously rolling offensively right now. While the Lightning haven't been quite as explosive offensively on the road this season, they still average just a shade under 3.0 goals per game. I would expect them to at the very least approach that number again here with the Habs showing no considerable difference in their ability to keep the puck out of their own net at home compared to on the road. Where I do expect a shift from the Habs is at the offensive end of the rink. As long as Montreal continues to pour on the pressure, it should only be a matter of time before it breaks through. Note that the Habs fired 43 shots on Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy in Game 2 but only managed a single goal. They've averaged three goals per game over their last six home games here in these playoffs. Note that Tampa Bay averages 3.6 goals per game with those contests totaling 6.0 goals on average after an 'under' result over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Montreal averages 3.0 goals per game after scoring one goal or less in its previous game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning UNDER 5 | 1-3 | Win | 103 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Lightning and the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Wednesday. The Canadiens got a bit of a wake-up call in the series-opener as they had yet to face a team as good as the Lightning all season. Not surprisingly, they were badly outplayed in a 5-1 loss. I do expect them to make the necessary adjustments and do a better job of defending the Bolts here, noting that the Habs have still allowed just 2.3 goals per game in the playoffs. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Habs revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. While the Lightning are certainly known for their offense, they can keep the puck out of their own net as well, giving up just 2.2 goals per game on home ice this season. They've been even better in that regard in the playoffs, allowing only 2.0 goals per contest. The 'under' is 14-5 with the Bolts coming off a home win by two goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 14-6 when Tampa Bay is leading a playoff series over the last two seasons. Tampa can't expect things to come as easy as they did in Game 1. In these playoffs, we've already seen the Lightning score six goals in a game against the Panthers and then just one in the next, six goals against the Hurricanes and then two in the next, and eight goals in a rout of the Islanders and then two in the next. It's important not to get too carried away by what we saw in the previous contest. Expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning OVER 5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time a Stanley Cup Final series-opener finished 'under' five total goals. I don't expect that trend to change on Monday. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-2 with the Lightning coming off consecutive games where they scored two goals or less this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Following an 'under' result over the last two seasons, Tampa Bay's next game has totaled an average of 6.1 goals. Meanwhile, the Canadiens average 3.1 goals per game when playing on the road off two or more consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Those games have averaged 5.6 total goals. I think there's always a bit of a tendency for teams to 'exhale' after reaching the Stanley Cup Final. Both teams have been involved in a number of tightly-contested low-scoring affairs recently but here I look for things to open up. Take the over (10*). |
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06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5 | 0-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We've already won twice with the 'under' in this series, settling for a 'push' with that same play in Game 6. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well as the Isles and Lightning do battle in Game 7 on Friday night. While the Lightning have almost always been known for their offense, their Game 7 history is as low-scoring as it gets. In fact, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 in their last eight Game 7 contests, with those games averaging a ridiculously-low total of just 2.4 goals. The 'under' is also 7-1 the last eight times the Lightning have played at home looking to close out a series with those contests averaging just 4.3 total goals. Under the guidance of head coach Jon Cooper the 'under' is a terrific 17-5 with the Lightning playing at home in potential series-clinching games with those contests all totaling just 4.3 total goals on average. The Islanders know they can ill afford to let down their guard after prevailing 3-2 in overtime last time out. We saw what the Lightning are capable of in Game 5 here in Tampa as they lit up the Isles in an 8-0 rout. New York may have a bit of an advantage here if Lightning superstar Nikita Kucherov isn't healthy enough to play after exiting in the first minute of Game 6 following an ugly cross check. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Lightning rolled to an 8-0 victory in Game 5 of this series on Monday (we won with Tampa Bay in that game). I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Long Island for Game 6. The Isles are of course known for their defensive play under head coach Barry Trotz and that's what makes the lopsided nature of Game 5 so stunning. Back at home, the Isles should respond favorably as they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game at Nassau Coliseum this season. Note that the Lightning have also been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, where they average 2.9 goals per game, well below their season average of 3.3 goals per contest. The 'under' has actually gone 7-1 the last eight times the Lightning have played on the road looking to close out a playoff series with those games averaging just 4.2 total goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with Tampa Bay playing on the road off a home win this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Islanders have posted a 1-8 o/u record when revenging a loss by three goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of only 3.6 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 with the Isles coming off a shutout loss on the road over the last two seasons with that situation producing a staggeringly-low 2.7 total goals on average. We've yet to see consecutive games go 'over' the total in this series and I don't see it happening here either. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've yet to see a game produce more than five goals in this series but I still think it's coming. With so much criticism of the officials letting too much go in this series (and in Game 4 in particular) I would expect this one to be called a little tighter, perhaps leading to more power play opportunities for both teams. Apart from that, it's certainly worth noting that the 'over' has gone 13-5 with the Knights coming off a one-goal victory this season with those games averaging a whopping 6.6 total goals. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have allowed 3.3 goals per game when coming off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, with those contests producing an average total of 6.4 goals. With Montreal coming off a game where four or less goals were scored, their next game has averaged 5.7 total goals over the last two seasons. Look for things to finally open up in this series on Tuesday night in Las Vegas. Take the over (9*). |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Semis Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Saturday as the Islanders look to answer back following consecutive losses. New York has to realize at this point that it's not going to win this series by sitting back on its heels. The Isles have now registered less than 30 shots in consecutive games. When they've been at their best in these playoffs they've been playing with an attacking mindset, as evidenced by their lone win in this series, a 2-1 victory in Game 1 where they fired 31 shots on goal. Note that the 'over' is 8-2 with the Isles playing at home after a game where three or less total goals were scored this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced a whopping 7.2 goals on average this season. The 'over' is also 22-12 with the Isles revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lightning have posted a 13-6 o/u record when playing consecutive road games this season with that situation producing 6.4 total goals on average. Over the last two seasons, Lightning games following an 'under' result have averaged 6.0 total goals. The Lightning aren't likely to sit back and play conservatively just because they've grabbed a 2-1 series lead. I look for both teams to find more offensive success than we saw in a tightly-contested Game 3. We'll take advantage of the '5' being offered tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 between the Lightning and Islanders last night. In fact, in going 4-0 this round we've yet to step in with a play on the 'over'. We'll switch gears and do so here, however, as the Knights and Canadiens head north for Game 3 in Montreal. Vegas got off to a quick offensive start in this series but looked like a different team in Game 2, perhaps missing first-line center Chandler Stephenson, or perhaps taking the Habs a little too lightly after cruising to a 4-1 win in the series-opener. Whatever the case, I expect to see the Knights bounce back offensively in this one. The Canadiens haven't been a better defensive team at home this season, allowing an identical 2.9 goals per game to what they give up on the road. The Knights, meanwhile, haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production away from home, averaging 3.2 goals per contest, just 0.1 goals per game lower than their season average. Keep in mind, Knights road games this season have averaged 5.5 goals per game while their playoff games have averaged just shy of that at 5.4 goals per game. The Canadiens have admittedly been involved in lower-scoring playoff affairs, with their games averaging just 4.8 total goals, however, it's worth noting that each of their last four games have totaled at least five goals. I simply feel that we're going to see totals back at 5.5 in this series, just as we saw back in Game 1. Look for the Knights to come out with an attacking mindset after a poor performance in Game 2 while the Habs aren't likely to lay down here at home, helping contribute to this one going 'over' the relatively low total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | 2-1 | Win | 119 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series before switching gears and backing the Lightning in Game 2. Here, I'll go back to the well with the 'under' as the scene shifts to Long Island for Game 3 on Thursday night. The Islanders aren't going to win many games trying to run and gun with the Lightning in this series. Tampa Bay is simply too deep and explosive offensively for the Isles to last very long playing the way they did in Game 2. Penalties obviously played a role in that setback as well. I expect to see a much cleaner performance from the Isles back home if nothing else. Note that the Islanders have allowed just 2.1 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'under' has gone 12-4 with New York revenging a loss where their opponents scored four goals or more this season, as is the case here, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is also 15-5 with the Isles playing at home off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 4.6 goals. On the flip side, the Lightning have posted a 1-8 o/u record when playing on the road off a home win this season. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.5 goals. These two teams are somewhat familiar with one another having faced off in the Eastern Conference Final in last year's 'bubble' playoffs. Note that the 'under' has cashed in seven of the last 11 meetings in this series. While we'd like to be dealing with a '5.5' here, I do like the plus money return being offered at '5' here in what I would expect to be a 'first to three wins' type of affair. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
NHL on NBC Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We cashed with the 'over' on three separate occasions during the Islanders series win over the Bruins last round. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as the Isles open their Stanley Cup semi-final series against the Lightning in Tampa. Note that the 'under' has gone 22-10-2 in all Islanders road games this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. The 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. The 'under' is also 12-2 with the Lightning coming off a shutout victory over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of only 4.7 goals. The Isles carried an attacking mindset against the Bruins, who were missing a key piece on defense in Brandon Carlo, and who had an injured goaltender in Tuukka Rask. Here, I think we'll see the Isles employ a different gameplan as they look to muck things up and slow down the explosive Lightning offense. While these two teams haven't met this season, six of their last nine matchups have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. Unlike last night, when I suggested the Islanders would come out with an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the Bruins on home ice, here I look for the Golden Knights to focus on staying fundamentally-sound defensively as they attempt to close out the Avalanche in Game 6. The Knights may be known for their offense but they've actually been very stout defensively here at home, where they allow just 2.1 goals per game this season. This will be the 14th meeting between these two teams this season with the 'under' having cashed at a 9-4 clip. Note that the 'under' has gone 21-11 with the Avs playing on the road revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Avs playing on the road off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, 8-1 after they give up three goals or more in consecutive games this season and a perfect 6-0 after they've been held to two goals or less in consecutive contests this season. I don't see things suddenly opening up in this 'elimination game' on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Bruins v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Monday night - one of our easiest winning tickets of the entire playoffs. While my first instinct was to give a hard look at the 'under' in Game 6, I just can't get there given the state of the Bruins. Goaltender Tuukka Rask was of course lifted from Game 5 due to an undisclosed injury. Maybe he'll be able to go on Wednesday, but even if he can, he hasn't shown the ability to steal a game in these playoffs. Top defenseman Brandon Carlo is also sidelined, an absolute anchor defensively in the B's own end of the rink. The Islanders are a supremely confident squad right now and should keep an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the favored Bruins on home ice in Game 6, avoiding a Game 7 back in Boston. Remember, last round the Isles overwhelmed the Penguins, scoring five goals in a series-clinching Game 6 victory here at the Nassau Coliseum. The Isles know they can't stop the Bruins 'Perfection Line' with Pastrnak, Marchand and Bergeron generating a ton of scoring chances in this series, with a hand in the majority of the Bruins goals. Note that the Isles are averaging an impressive 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Meanwhile, the Bruins have averaged 4.0 goals per game when coming off two or more straight losses this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Carolina at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams this season and we've yet to see the 'over' cash in consecutive matchups. Off Saturday's wild, high-scoring 6-4 Lightning victory (we won with Tampa Bay in that game), we'll back the 'under' in Tuesday's elimination game in Carolina. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 the last seven times the Lightning have attempted to close out a series, with those contests averaging just 3.8 total goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Canes playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, with those games also averaging a total of just 3.8 goals. It's also worth noting that the 'under' has gone 12-5 with the Lightning coming off a home win by two goals or more this season and 25-11 with Carolina playing at home off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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06-07-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Last night's game between these two teams crept 'over' the total only thanks to a late empty net goal. Note that now we find the Habs in a situation where the 'under' has gone 7-1 this season when coming off a home win in which they scored four goals or more this season. The 'under' is also 31-14 the last 45 times the Jets have been on the road seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored five goals or more, as is the case here. We can certainly anticipate the Jets tightening things up here as they desperately try to stave off elimination and get the series back to Winnipeg for Game 5. Note that we've yet to see the Canadiens post consecutive 'over' results in these playoffs with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip overall. Since head coach Dominique Ducharme took over for Claude Julien, we've seen the 'under' go 9-2 with the Habs coming off a home victory this season with those games totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Take the under (9*). |
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06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 6:35 pm et on Monday. The Islanders were able to do a reasonable job of holding down the Bruins 'perfection line' in two games on Long Island but I expect a different story to unfold on Monday in Boston. The Bruins have of course been a much higher-scoring team at home this season, where they average 3.4 goals per game. We saw that in the first two games in this series as they put eight goals in the Isles net. New York knows that it's not going to stop the B's top line here in Beantown - it needs to keep pace with an aggressive offensive effort the likes of which we saw back in Game 2. Interestingly, the B's have been a slightly weaker defensive team at home this season, where they allow 2.5 goals per contest. While the Isles average just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season, we've seen a much different story in these playoffs as they've put up 14 goals in five road contests. Take the over (9*). |
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06-06-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Montreal at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. While the first game in this series was high-scoring, both teams settled into a defensive affair in Friday's 1-0 Canadiens victory. I don't think either team believes it needs to score more than 2-3 goals to secure victories in this series and for Winnipeg this is obviously as close to a must-win without being exactly that as it gets. Carey Price is locked in right now and it seems that whenever the Jets go down a key scorer up front (ie. Nik Ehlers or Blake Wheeler during the regular season and now Mark Scheifele) its secondary options struggle to pick up the slack. The Jets were never really threatened in their own end in Game 2 apart from Tyler Toffoli's short-handed marker, which was a pretty bad goal for Connor Hellebuyck to allow in a critical situation down a game in this series. I do think Hellebuyck is capable of stealing a game for the Jets though, even if their offense fails to show up once again. With all of that being said, the days of 5.5's may be numbered in this series. I'm banking on another relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday in Montreal. Take the under (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Round Two Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. If the Hurricanes are going to have any chance at getting back in this series they're going to need to break through against Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. With the scene shifting to Tampa for Game 3 on Thursday night, I expect them to do just that. Note that the last four times the Lightning have played after posting consecutive road victories, they've gone on to allow a whopping 6.0 goals per game with those contests totaling an average of 9.3 goals. We're talking about a small sample size, but the point is still worth making. Also note that the 'over' has gone 17-7 the last 24 times the Lightning have come off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, with those games totaling an average of 6.8 goals. Carolina's road games have been considerably higher-scoring than its home games this season, averaging a total of 6.0 goals. Lightning home games have averaged an identical 6.0 goals as well. I'll also point to the fact that the 'over' has gone 27-17 with the Canes playing on the road with a total of 5.5 under head coach Rod Brind'Amour, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. We've now seen four consecutive 'under' results in games between these two teams. I believe both have too much offensive firepower for that trend to continue much longer. Take the over (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series on Sunday as the Golden Knights inexplicably turned to Robin Lehner between the pipes and were absolutely dominated to the tune of a 7-1 loss. Here, I fully expect Vegas to punch back but I'm not convinced it will find a great deal of offensive success noting that the Avs have allowed just 1.9 goals per game on home ice this season. For their part, the Knights have given up only 2.3 goals per game on the road this season so Game 1 could certainly be considered an anomaly. Prior to that contest, Vegas had held Colorado to exactly two goals in three straight meetings. It's not as if this has been a particularly high-scoring series this season as the 'under' has actually gone 6-3. Note that the 'under' is 17-7 with the Knights playing on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 5.0 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL East Division Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We're only one game into this series but as good as a defensive team as they are, I think the chances of the Islanders slowing down the Bruins 'Perfection Line' of Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak are slim to none. While David Pastrnak managed a hat trick in Game 1, he easily could have had a couple more goals as well. When the dust settled, the Bruins shook off some early rust and cruised to a 5-2 series-opening victory. New York generally carries a defensive mindset under head coach Barry Trotz but here I think it knows it will have to turn up the offensive volume in order to stay in this series. It's worth noting that the Isles have managed to score at least four goals against the Bruins on three different occasions this season. While they faced a different challenge in round one, they scored four goals in both games where they were coming off a loss, as is the case here. Note that the Isles have allowed 3.4 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. The Bruins have been a terrific positive momentum play here at home, averaging 3.8 goals per game after winning two or more games in a row over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' cashed in the final three games of the Avs opening round demolition of the Blues and also hit in the Golden Knights Game 7 clincher against the Wild. Here, I'll go the contrarian route and call for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting. Yes, both teams are loaded with offensive firepower but with that being said, the 'under' has actually cashed in three of their last five matchups here in Colorado and four of their last six meetings overall. While better known for their offense, the Avs have been terrific at keeping pucks out of their own net here at home this season, allowing just 1.9 goals per game. Likewise, the Knights have allowed just 2.2 goals per game away from home this season. Note that the Knights check in sporting an 11-22 o/u record when playing on the road revenging a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 22-10 with the Knights playing on the road off a game where seven or more goals were scored over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.1 goals as well. On the other side, the Avs have posted a 10-22 o/u record the last 32 times they've followed consecutive road wins by two goals or more with that situation producing an average total of only 4.7 goals. Finally, it's worth mentioning that the Avs average only 1.9 goals per game when playing at home in their fifth or less game in the last two weeks over the last three seasons. That situation has come up nine times previously. Take the under (9*). |
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05-28-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We saw an opening total of 6.0 in Game 1 of this series and now that we've reached Game 7 we're looking at a total of 5.0 (at the time of writing). It's warranted in my opinion. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 with the Knights playing at home off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Vegas has allowed just 1.1 goals per game with those contests totaling an average of just 3.9 goals. The 'under' is also 19-8 with the Knights playing at home off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games averaging a total of 5.1 goals. We've already seen three shutouts in the first six games of this series and I'm anticipating another low-scoring affair with everything on the line on Friday night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This has turned out to be a very high-scoring series with three of the four games totaling seven goals or more. I expect things to tighten up considerably now that the series is all knotted at two games apiece, however. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Hurricanes playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season with that situation producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. The 'under' is also 10-2 with the Hurricanes at home off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.3 goals. For the Preds part, the 'under' has gone 11-3 when they play on the road after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. Despite the high-scoring nature of this playoff series, the 'under' remains 8-6 in the last 14 meetings in this series while five of the last seven matchups here in Raleigh have also gone 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Hurricanes v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Nashville at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. This series has featured a couple of high-scoring games already but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon in a pivotal Game 4 contest. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-4 the last 19 times the Hurricanes have played on the road leading a playoff series with those games totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 with the Predators playing at home having allowed three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 4.8 goals. On the flip side of that, the Preds have posted a 7-24 o/u mark when at home after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last three seasons, with an average total of 4.9 goals. There's a lot on the line here as the Canes look to push the Preds to the brink of elmination heading back to Carolina while Nashville tries to even the series knowing it will need to still steal a game in Raleigh in order to win the series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Colorado at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Monday night and I'll go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Wednesday. Note that the 'under' has now cashed in six of the last nine meetings in this series here in Colorado. This one sets up well as another relatively low-scoring affair, noting that the Blues have posted an 0-8 o/u mark when on the road revenging a road loss against an opponent this season, which is obviously the case here following their Game 1 defeat, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.3 goals. The 'under' also checks in 16-6 after the Blues allow four goals or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of 5.1 goals. For Colorado's part, it has seen the 'under' go 34-21 after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last three seasons. With Monday's 'under' result, the Avs have now seen the 'under' cash in five of their last six games overall. While they're known for their offense, they can play some defense as well, especially here at home where they give up just 1.9 goals per game this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Jets v. Oilers UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Jets aren't the same team they were earlier this season. They ended the season by losing nine of their final 12 games, struggling to find consistent offensive production after losing one of their top guns, Nik Ehlers, to a season-ending injury. While Winnipeg did score nine goals in its final two regular season games, neither contest had any meaning in the playoff race. Prior to that, the Jets had been held to three goals or less in 11 of their last 13 games and two goals or fewer in six of their last eight contests. The Oilers offense is top-heavy as we know with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl shouldering most of the scoring load. Having taken the last six meetings in this series, they'll certainly have Winnipeg's full attention on Wednesday. Note that the Jets have allowed just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road revenging a loss against an opponent this season with those games totaling an average of only 5.3 goals. Note that we've seen just one of the last six meetings in this series total more than six goals with the Oilers allowing two goals or less in all six of those contests. Take the under (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Central Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game to open this series on Monday night as the Hurricanes cruised to a 5-2 victory. The Predators know they don't have the offensive firepower to keep pace in that type of high-scoring environment, however. Keep in mind, they average just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season while the Hurricanes allow only 2.1 goals per game on home ice. We should see a better defensive effort from the Preds here as they've given up just 2.6 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more this season. Meanwhile, the 'Canes have posted an 8-19 o/u record the last 27 times they've been leading a playoff series, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go an incredible 13-1 when Carolina plays at home after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. Finally, note that the 'under' is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these two teams here in Raleigh and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-17-21 | Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I don't expect the Blues to have an easy time keeping pace with the high-flying Avalanche offense in this series and they're well aware of that fact after losing five of eight regular season meetings, including three of four games played here in Denver. I do look for St. Louis to make a concerted effort to muck things up and knock the Avs off stride here in Monday's series-opener but it may come at the expense of their own offensive production. Note that five of the last eight meetings between these two teams here in Colorado have gone 'under' the total. The Avs wrapped up the regular season scoring 11 goals in consecutive victories over the lowly Kings, who were simply playing out the string. Things are obviously going to be a little tougher here. I will note that St. Louis did take the final two regular season matchups between these two including a 4-1 victory on April 26th (we won with the 'under' in that game), which sets us up well here as the Avs have posted a perfect 6-0 'under' record when revenging a loss by two goals or more this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.0 goals. The Blues check in sporting a 7-19 o/u record when coming off consecutive home wins by two goals or more, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 4.9 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
NHL West Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Vegas at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the most recent meeting between these two teams but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' in this spot. While the Golden Knights are heavily favored to win this series I don't expect the Wild to back down one bit as the series opens in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. Note that Minnesota has actually taken four of the last seven meetings here at T-Mobile Arena and checks in a perfect 7-0, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Wild revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 with the Knights playing just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with an average total of 7.4 goals in that spot. The Knights have of course been dominant at home this season, skating to a 21-7 record while averaging 3.5 goals per game with the 'over' cashing at a 16-12 clip. After a very brief scoring lull in early April, the Knights went on a tear down the stretch, scoring four goals or more in 11 of their final 16 regular season games. Likewise, the Wild also picked up the pace offensively down the stretch, producing four goals or more in 10 of their last 14 contests. Take the over (10*). |
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05-15-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Washington at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. 6's and even 6.5's have been commonplace in Capitals games this season but we're dealing with a lower total here in Saturday's playoff opener against the Bruins. Of course, we just saw these two teams skate to a very low-scoring 2-1 contest earlier this week on this same ice, but that result can essentially be thrown to the wayside as neither team iced a true NHL roster in what was a 'meaningless' game. Prior to that, the 'over' had cashed in four of the last six matchups between these two teams in Washington. The Bruins figured things out offensively down the stretch, displaying amazing consistency, scoring three goals or more in eight straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall prior to Tuesday's 2-1 loss against the Caps. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-7 with the Caps coming off an 'under' result this season, with those games totaling an average of 6.6 goals. We've also seen the 'over' go 15-6 with the Caps coming off a home win over a division opponent over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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05-14-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets UNDER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen some wild, high-scoring games in so-called 'meaningless' games here in the final stretch of the regular season and with the Leafs and Jets both capable of stuffing the scoresheet most are anticipating a similar result here. I'll go the other way and call for both teams to work on cleaning things up in Friday's regular season finale. All indications are that the goaltending matchup will featuring Jack Campbell and Connor Hellebuyck - the two teams' likely playoff starters as well. Frederik Andersen returned after an extended absence for the Leafs on Wednesday and struggled, allowing four goals in a loss to the Senators. Of course, he wasn't given a great deal of help in that game either. I do look for Toronto to tighten things up here, noting that it checks in having allowed just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season. The Jets have struggled to find offensive consistency since losing Nik Ehlers for the season. While they're coming off a five-goal outburst against the weary Canucks two nights ago, they've scored three goals or less in nine of their last 11 games overall. On a positive note, they have allowed three goals or less in four of their last five games. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six meetings between these two teams here in Winnipeg. The 'under' checks in 14-7 with the Leafs coming off two wins in their last three games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 5.6 goals and 16-8 with the Leafs having scored three goals or more in consecutive games this season, also resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. Take the under (10*). |