I'm getting involved in this total now that the marketplace has shaved off a couple of points. We have two really bad defensive teams here.

Virginia is the worst defensive team in the ACC. The Cavaliers rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 37.8 points a game and are 113th in defensive total yards.

Eagles QB Thomas Castellanos is in line for a big performance. He's passed for 909 yards and eight TD's while also leading the Eagles in rushing with 280 yards. Helping the Over is BC playing at a top-15 tempo.

Virginia should put up its share of points no matter who the quarterback is, either strong-armed gunslinger Anthony Colandrea or Tony Muskett, who started the first game but suffered a shoulder injury. The Cavaliers have one of the better receivers in the conference in Malik Washington. He's had three straight 100-yard receiving games.

I'm expecting a stronger defensive battle here than the oddsmaker perceives.

First-year Purdue coach Ryan Walters was the defensive coordinator at Illinois before getting the Boilermakers job. He knows the Illini well. Illinois is averaging just 22.3 points, which ranks 99th.

I was expecting more from Purdue QB Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas. The Boilermakers' offense has yet to fully click.

Another key to making an Under work here is misleading defensive statistics. The numbers are skewed because both teams have faced three strong offenses, especially Illinois. The Illini have gone against Toledo, Kansas and Penn State.

Purdue has faced Fresno State, Syracuse and Wisconsin.

Houston isn't any good this season. Losses to Rice and to TCU by 23 points at home are evidence of that.

Texas Tech has had three one-score losses, including one to Oregon. The Red Raiders should be able to take out their frustrations against the Cougars in what will be an emotional setting. They are honoring players and coaches into their Hall of Fame, including the late Mike Leach.

I'm fine with Behren Morton taking over at QB for the Red Raiders after Tyler Shough suffered a broken leg last Saturday against West Virginia. Morton has experience having started four games last season.

Florida coach Billy Napier did a wise thing. He brought in defensive guru Austin Armstrong from Southern Mississippi. The Gators are giving up just 13.5 points a game with Armstrong as their defensive coordinator.

I don't like Kentucky's skill position talent as much as last season. The Wildcats could get exposed offensively here having played weak opponents Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt. The Gators should be able to get numerous sacks on Devin Leary, who has been picked off five times.

Kentucky does have a solid defense, though, ranking in the top 20 in total defense and 10th in run defense. I'm not a fan of Florida QB Graham Mertz, who was a huge disappointment at Wisconsin before transferring to Florida.

Both teams play at a very slow tempo ranking in the bottom-18 in pace.

Georgia State is staking an early claim to be the best team in the Sun Belt Conference off to a 4-0 start. The Panthers are positioned well to continue their success against Troy, which is 2-2 but has yet to cover a point spread.

The Panthers are home and on extra rest having defeated Coastal Carolina last Thursday, 30-17, as a 5-point road 'dog. Troy has played just once on the road. The Trojans were blown out, 42-13, by Kansas State in that game.

Georgia State has a good dual threat QB, Danny Grainger, and one of the best running backs, Marcus Carroll, in the country. Carroll is fifth in the nation in rushing yards with 508 and has scored the most rushing TD's of any running back with eight.

The Panthers' defensive strength is their 23rd-ranked run defense. Troy has trouble running the ball.

The teams did not meet last season. But Georgia State beat and covered against the Trojans in 2021, 2020 and 2019. The Panthers won those games by an average margin of 16 points.