3* Total Annihilator on Wizards/Knicks OVER

Getting points on the board should be an easy task to accomplish in this game since neither of these teams have played well defensively this season. Washington is allowing 99.6 points per game this year, while New York has given up 101.7 points per game when playing at home. Both of those numbers are significantly higher than their opponents scoring averages have been this season.

This will be New York's fifth game in the last seven days, and their defense is already trending in the wrong direction as the wear and tear of this brutal stretch of schedule catches up with them. They gave up 106 points on Saturday to Atlanta. The Wizards are also playing through a touch stretch of schedule. This is their third game in the last four days, and they are coming off back-to-back performances allowing over 100 points per game.

Washington is the kind of team that responds with a big offensive performance when coming off an embarrassing loss. The over is 19-7 in the Wizards last 26 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. The over is also 15-7 in Washington's last 22 games against Eastern Conference opponents. The Knicks on the other hand have posted an 8-3 record to the over in their last 11 homes games. I expect this game to be an offensive shootout that should easily exceed the posted total.

5* Pacific Division Total of the Month on Suns/Kings UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high. The Kings only average 98.8 points per game, and they should struggle against a Suns defense that is playing with two days of rest. Sacramento is also playing with a day off, and with both teams being rested I think both defenses will play well tonight. Phoenix has allowed just 99.9 points per game this year.

Nothing about this game indicates that either team is going to be able to exceed their scoring average, or end up allowing more than their defensive average for points against. The total on this game reflects a potential shootout, but the numbers say this game will be a defensive battle. The under is a perfect 9-0 when Sacramento is on the road and coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. It is also 15-5 when Phoenix is coming off an upset win as a road underdog.

This matchup fits into a system to play the under when a team like Phoenix is facing a division opponent and they are coming off a road win against a division rival. This system is 66-30 to the under for the last five seasons. You should also play the under when the total is 200 points or more and there is a well rested team like Phoenix that is playing four or less games in the last 10 days, and have won between 51% to 60% of their games on the season. This system is 96-52 (65%) in favor of the under for the last five seasons.

4* Total Dominator on Warriors/Bobcats UNDER

Golden State is coming off a very strong defensive performance, holding the Memphis Grizzlies to just 82 points. The Warriors have struggled on the road this year with a 6-7 record, and a big reason for that is because of the offensive production hit they take when playing away from home. Against a team with a losing record like Charlotte you would think Golden State could score at-will, but the numbers indicate a different story.

The Bobcats have held opponents to a mere 91.5 points per game. They have a very underrated defense. The Bobcats have not done a lot of scoring this year, which only adds value to the under. They are scoring just 89.6 points per game overall, and only get a small boost in production to 90.1 points per game when playing at home. Both of these teams have strong under records. The under is 9-4 in Golden State's 13 road games, and 14-5 overall for the Bobcats.

This matchup fits into a system to play on the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points, and one of the teams is coming off a home win by 10 points or more and playing against an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This system has a 111-67 record towards the under. When playing with a day of rest the under is 14-5 in Golden State's last 19 games.

5* Total No Brainer on Jazz/Kings OVER

The total for this game is set much lower than it should be. Neither of these teams has played well defensively this season, and they are both capable of putting up big numbers on the offensive end of the court. The Sacramento Kings are allowing 102.2 points per game on the road this season. The Jazz get a big boost in offensive production on their home court, and against a soft Kings defense I think they will more than account for their half of the points needed to send this game over the total.

The Kings lack of success this year has not come from a lack of scoring. They are averaging 97.1 points per game, and they have a great opportunity to build on that number against a Jazz defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game. Utah's defense has been soft regardless of venue, so the fact that Sacramento is on the road should not slow them down in this matchup.

This matchup fits into a system to play the over when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points, when a team like Utah has won less than 25% of their games, they are coming off a road loss against a division rival, and they are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 38-11 (78%) in favor of the over. Expect a shootout between two bad teams because neither have played well on the defensive end of the court.

3* Total Dominator on Nets/Bucks OVER

With Milwaukee playing on back-to-back nights I expect their defense to be even worse than it normally is. They are facing a Brooklyn team playing with a much needed day of rest, so the Nets should be able to put a big number on the scoreboard. Milwaukee is allowing 99.9 points per game this season.

The Nets should score a lot of points against Milwaukee, but they will definitely allow a lot of points too. Brooklyn is giving up over 103 points per game on the road this season. Seven of the Nets last eight games have had the total set higher than the line we are getting today, and I think that is an overly aggressive move by the oddsmakers which creates value on the over.

The over is 11-1 in Brooklyn's last 12 games against a team winning less than 40% of their games. It is also 16-5-1 when when Nets are playing on one day of rest. The Bucks are also trending towards the over. They have gone over the total in five of their last seven games.

5* Total Dominator on Mavericks/Pelicans OVER

The total on this game is much lower than it should be given the way these teams have been playing recently. In their last five games, the Pelicans are averaging 109.8 points per game. They should have no problem putting up another big number tonight against a Mavericks defense that is allowing 102.4 points per game on the road.

The Mavericks should also score a lot of points in this game. New Orleans is allowing 101.9 points per game this season, and they have done so against opponents whose offensive average is just 97.7 points per game. The Dallas Mavericks come into this game scoring 103.7 points per game, and with the Pelican's complete lack of defense they have a very good chance to improve on that number today.

This matchup fits into a system to play the over when a team like New Orleans is coming off two consecutive road wins by five points or less, and they are playing in the first half of the season. The over has a 40-11 (78%) record in the last 51 games fitting into this scenario. In the last nine head-to-head meetings between these teams being played in New Orleans the over has a 7-2 record. I expect tonight's matchup to be another offensive showcase sending this game over the total.

4* Total Annihilator on Rocket/Spurs UNDER

The Spurs should be able to control the pace of this game on their home court, and that means these teams will not be getting into an offensive shootout. San Antonio has held opponents to 89.3 points per game at home this season. The Spurs are scoring 101.4 points per game at home, and I doubt they will exceed that number today against a very underrated Rockets defense.

Houston may allow a lot of points per game, but that is because they also score a lot of points. Against the Spurs defense that scoring will be slowed down dramatically, and I think the talent of this defense will show in this game. The Rockets have actually held opponents to a lower shooting percentage from the field than the Spurs have this season. They are allowing those opponents to shoot 41.8% while San Antonio is allowing 42.6% from the field.

The under is 14-4 in San Antonio's games against teams that are scoring 103 or more points per game. The under is also 17-6 in San Antonio's last 23 games against teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game. The Rockets are also trending towards the under. They have gone under the total in nine of their last 13 games following an ATS win, and are 29-14 to the under against a team with a winning record.

3* Total Dominator on Wizards/Bucks OVER

It is a little surprising to see such a low total in this game given how poorly these defenses have played this season. The Wizards are allowing 102 points per game, while the Bucks are not far behind at 100.2 points allowed. Both teams are allowing opponents to shoot over 47 percent from the field.

The Washington Wizards are averaging 100.3 points per game this year. They should have no problem exceeding that number against Milwaukee today. Washington has been on fire on three-point attempts, making 41.2 percent in the road this season. Milwaukee is also a team that shoots well on three-point attempts. They average 41 percent from beyond the arch in home games.

I have these teams playing in a shootout, and I expect to see a lot of three-point shots falling. The over is 11-5 in Washington's last 16 games against Eastern Conference opponents. This matchup falls into a system to play the over when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams is off a road loss against a division opponent like Milwaukee, and they are a terrible team winning 25% of their games or less and facing another team with a losing record. This system is 37-11 (77%) in favor of the over.

3* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Warriors OVER

The Grizzlies have looked soft on defense this season, and that could be big trouble tonight when they are on the road against Golden State. The Warriors are averaging 110.8 points per game at home this season. They are beating their opponents defensive average for points allowed by a double-digit margin. The Grizzlies have allowed 97.2 points per game this year.

Memphis may not be playing great defense, but the offense is performing well. The Grizzlies average 46.8% shooting from the field this season, and should have no problem putting points on the board against a Golden State defense that is surrendering 96.3 points per game. The over is 5-2 in the Grizzlies last seven games against teams from the Pacific division.

In head-to-head meetings between these teams the over is 5-2 in the last seven. Memphis has gone over the total in four of their last five road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. The over is also 9-4 in the Grizzlies last 13 games when coming off a performance in which they allowed 100 points or more.

3* Total Dominator on Heat/Hawks UNDER

The Miami Heat are playing good defense right now. They have held opponents to 98.6 points per game, and they should be able to improve on that number today against an Atlanta team that is very overrated. The Hawks have played a lot of teams that don't bother trying on the defensive end of the court, which has inflated their offensive numbers. The Miami Hear are not one of those teams.

Both teams are playing on two days of rest, so they should come out looking sharp on the defensive end of the court. Tired teams usually give up on defense first, so the fact that both teams are well rested puts a lot of value on the under. The Heat are have gone under 22 of their last 31 games against division opponents.

This matchup falls into a system to play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points, and their is a good team like Atlanta winning 60% to 75% of their games, playing another team with a winning record in the first half of the season. The under has a 48-21 record in this situation. There is also another system to play the under when one of those teams is off a road win against a division opponent, like Miami is, when they are facing another division rival. The under has a 62-28 record over the last five seasons in this situation.

5* Total No Brainer on Pacers/Bulls UNDER

With or without Derrick Rose, this total is set far too high. The Indiana Pacers have a great defense. They have held opponents to just 83.7 points per game this season. They are allowing 38.6% from the field, and have played just as good on the road as they do at home. Indiana has gone under the total in eight of their nine games this season.

The Chicago Bulls are also solid defensively. They have allowed 78.3 points per game at home, and 89.4 points per game overall this season. The Bulls have given up a 35.4% shooting percentage from the field. What makes this under even more likely is the fact that neither of these teams has been great offensively. The Pacers score 95.9 points per game this season, while the Bulls average 91.7 points per game at home.

This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when a team like Indiana is off a home blowout win by 20 points or more and playing an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This system is 96-48 in favor of the under. The Bulls have also gone under the total in five of their last six games.

3* Total Dominator on Rockets/Knicks OVER

Neither of these teams plays a lot of defense. The Houston Rockets are allowing 113 points per game when playing on the road, while the Knicks are allowing 103.5 points per game at home. The Knicks have gone over the total in four of their last five games, and the Rockets have gone over in their last two consecutive games.

Offensively these teams are capable of putting up some big numbers. Houston is scoring 113.7 points per game on the road this year. They are a great shooting team, averaging 49.7% from the field in those games. The Knicks are averaging 94 points per game at home, but they have played some solid defensive teams. That won't be the case tonight since the Rockets have been horrible defensively regardless of the venue they play in.

The Knicks have gone over the total in their last four games against Western Conference opponents. They are also 5-1 to the over in their last six games following an ATS win. Houston has gone over in four of their last five games against Atlantic division teams, and are 4-1 to the over in their last five games following an ATS loss. Expect a shootout in this game because both defenses have failed to show up at the start of the season.

4* Total Dominator on Lakers/Nuggets UNDER

This total appears to be set far too high given the lack of scoring from the Lakers and Nuggets this season. Los Angeles is shooting 42.1% from the field, and I expect another poor shooting performance tonight since the Lakers just played against New Orleans yesterday. When playing on the road the Lakers shooting average drops to 40.4% and they average a mere 95.5 points per game.

The Nuggets have also struggled to put points on the board this year. They are averaging 98.7 points per game and should struggle to reach 100 points again tonight against this Lakers team that has held three of their last four opponents under 100 points. Not surprisingly, the Lakers have gone under the total in three of their last four games.

The under is 5-2 in Denver's last seven games against Western Conference opponents and 4-1 in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. This matchup also falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more like the Lakers, and their opponent is off a road win by 10 points or more like Denver. This system is 96-47 in favor of the under.

3* Total Annihilator on Pelicans/Lakers UNDER

As bad as these teams have been shooting, this total seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. The Pelicans average 94.3 points per game on the road, and that has come against opponents that are surrendering an average of 97 points per game. They are a below average team offensively, and that won't be changing in today's road game against the Lakers. The Pelican's defense has allowed just 94.7 points per game, a number they should match against the struggling Lakers.

Los Angeles has shot 40.6% from the field this season. Their opponents are allowing 99.9 points per game, yet they average just 97.2 points per game. This is another indicator for a below average offensive team. Defensively the Lakers statistics are a bit misleading. Their opponents have averaged 104.1 points per game, and Los Angeles allows just 102.5 points per game at home which tells me they are much better defensively than they get credit for.

With two below average offenses, and two undervalued defenses, there is a lot of value on the under in this game. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when a team like New Orleans is coming off an upset loss as a favorite when they had a losing record last season. This system is 41-14 (75%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Jazz/Raptors OVER

There is a lot of value on the over in this matchup between the Jazz and Raptors. The total has been set very low due in large part to the lack of scoring from Utah this season. That changes today when they face a Raptors team that is giving up 95.5 points per game at home this season. In Utah's defense, they have played some surprisingly good defenses this season.

Toronto should have no problem making their contribution to the over. They are scoring 94 points per game at home this season. The potential is there for them to increase that number against Utah since the Jazz have allowed an average of 98.6 points per game.

The over has a 4-1 record in Toronto's last five home games against a team with a losing record on the road. It is also 4-1 in their last five games against teams from the Northwest division. The over is 9-3 in Utah's last 12 games against Atlantic division teams. In head-to-head meetings between the Jazz and Raptors the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Wizards UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high. First of all, the Brooklyn Nets are the better team and they will control the pace of this game. Washington has done a lot of scoring this season, but it has come at an unsustainable level. Against a good team like Brooklyn I don't think they will be able to match there average of 102 points per game at home.

Brooklyn is not a fast paced offense. They average just 90 points per game on the road. They know they will need to control the pace of this game and turn it into a defensive battle rather than a shootout. The Nets have an extra day of rest over the Wizards and should be able to prevent their opponents from continuing to shoot 50% from the field.

The under is 7-3 in Brooklyn's last 10 games against a team with a losing record. It is also 35-15-1 in Washington's last 50 games following a straight up win. In the last five head to head meetings between these teams the under has a 4-1 record, and a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings. Expect a strong defensive performance from the Nets, and with their offense struggling on the road this game should easily stay under the total.

4* Total Annihilator on Jazz/Celtics OVER

This total is not taking into account just how bad the Jazz have played this season. Utah has given up over 100 points in three of their four games. They face a Celtics team that is averaging 98 points per game at home this season. The Jazz are also playing in back-to-back road games after getting crushed by the Nets last night, so I expect to see the defense come out a little flat footed.

The Celtics poor defense will also make a big contribution to this game going over the total. In their only home game of the season the defense gave up 105 points to Milwaukee. The Jazz are averaging 90.7 points per game this season, and I don't think they will continue to shoot as poorly as they have against this soft Celtics defense.

The over is 7-3 in Utah's last 10 games when they allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. It is also 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams. In Boston's last six games against a team with a losing record the over has a perfect 6-0 record.

3* Total Dominator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

The Pacers defense ranks among the best in the league. They have held opponents to 83.7 points per game this season, on a 37.9% shooting rate from the field. Even when playing on the road they have been dangerous, allowing 90 points per game on 40% shooting.

Surprisingly, the Detroit Piston's defense has also looked solid this season. They did give up over 100 points in their home opener, but that is to be expected in the first game of the season. They tightened things up in their last home game against Boston, holding the Celtics to a mere 77 points. A better indicator of how talented this defense is than points allowed is shooting percentage allowed and Detroit has given up just 42.8% in home games.

In the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams the under has a 5-2 record. Given the history between these teams I expect to see a hard fought defensive battle. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams, in this case Detroit, had a losing record last season and they are facing a division opponent. This system is 72-33 in favor of the under.

3* Total No Brainer on Bucks/Celtics UNDER

This matchup features two teams that seriously lack scoring potential. The Celtics lost their leading scorer in the offseason, and it is going to take time for these new players to come together. That means some low scoring games for the Celtics. In their season opener they put up just 87 points on a mediocre Toronto defense.

It is a similar story for the Milwaukee Bucks. I can't see this team scoring many points this season after getting rid of a great point guard for a mediocre one with the Jennings for Knight trade, and losing Dunleavy as an unrestricted free agent. This Bucks have been mediocre for years, and if anything they took a step backwards offensively with their offseason moves.

The under is 40-16 in Milwaukee's last 56 games when coming off a performance in which they earned five of less offensive rebounds. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when a team that won 40% to 49% of their games last season like Boston, is facing another team that had a losing record. This system is 64-29 to the under over the last five seasons.

5* Total Dominator on 76ers/Wizards OVER

We learned two things in Philadelphia's season opener. First of all their offensive scoring potential is much improved after the overhaul this team went through in the offseason. They put up 114 points in that home opener against Miami. They also showed us that there is going to be a learning curve while these players learn how to play together. The defense allowed 110 points, and the team had 18 turnovers.

It is a very similar story for the Wizards. The managed to score 102 points in their season opener, which was played on the road. With this matchup against Philadelphia being their first home game of the year, I expect the crowed to be fired up and the Wizards to put on an offensive show.

Dating back to last season the over is 7-1 in Washington's last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents. It is also 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. It is 15-5 in home games when Washington is coming off a road loss over the last two seasons. The 76ers are also trending towards the over, posting a 51-31 record to the over against Southeast division opponents.

4* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Heat UNDER

I expect to see the Heat concentrate on a better defensive performance in game 7 tonight. With the shooting from the Spurs role players leveling off and San Antonio using everything left in the tank in game 6 that should be an easy task to accomplish. Miami still has some offensive problems of their own which makes the under a strong value play in today's matchup.

Miami has gone under the total in 5 of their last 9 games in the playoffs and it not for overtime in the last game that record would easily be 6-3. The Heat defense has been great in the playoffs allowing an average of just 90.8 points per game. The Spurs defense has also been solid holding their playoff opponents to 93.2 points per game.

The under is 7-2 in the Spurs last 9 road games against a team with a winning record and 17-5 in their last 22 road games overall. These teams have a history of staying under the total when playing in Miami. In head to head matchups the under is 12-4 in the last 16 games when the Heat are at home.

3* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Heat UNDER

The Miami defense has been respectable this season, especially when playing at home. They have held opponents to 94 points per game while scoring just 96.2 points per game against the Spurs. The first two games of this series played in Miami stayed well under the posted total of 190 points and 189.5 points so there is a lot of value on the under as we come back to Miami with an even higher total set on this game.

When playing on the road the Spurs have taken a defensive oriented approach rather than a shoot quickly and score approach like they use at home. This is exactly why San Antonio held Miami to just 88 points in the series opener of this game. While both of these teams have been shooting well in San Antonio I expect that to level out as we head back to Miami.

The under is 13-3 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team winning 60% or more of their games at home and it is 17-4 in their last 21 road games overall. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 home games and 12-3 in the last 15 head to head meetings between these teams when the game is being played in Miami.

3* Total Annihilator on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Even though the Pacers lost game 5 of this series they can

5* Total Playoff Game of the Year on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Indiana made the mistake of letting the Heat control the pace of the last game and it cost them. I don

5* Total Dominator on Pacers/Heat UNDER

The Indiana Pacers have the second best defense in the NBA. They are playing on their home court for today

4* Total Dominator on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

The oddsmakers are still not giving any love to the Grizzlies defense this season. This line is especially high considering Oklahoma City

4* Total Annihilator on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

The oddsmakers continue to underestimate the talent of this Memphis defense. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 87.2 points per game at home this season. Offensively they do not do much to be concerned about going over the total as they are scoring a mere 93.9 points per game.

The Thunder are 17-3 to the UNDER when coming off 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season. The Grizzlies are also trending towards the under at 14-5 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The Grizzlies defense is dangerous enough when they are playing almost every day, but given some rest and they should be performing at their best against the Thunder.

When the series is tied both teams feel like they are playing in a must win situation. In these scenarios teams will often make defensive adjustments rather than finding additional ways to score. This is why you should always play the under when the total is 180 to 189.5 points when both teams have a winning record on the season and they are playing in a playoffs series that is tied. This system is 34-16 (68%) over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Golden State/Spurs UNDER

With the series tied at 1-1 I expect both of these teams to step up their play defensively. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and the home team is well rested, playing 4 games or less in the last 10 days, and they are winning 51% to 60% of their games on the season, and playing against a team with a winning record. This system is 35-10 (78%) to the UNDER for the last five seasons.

The Spurs are holding opponents to 96.5 points per game this year while Golden State is holding opponents to 97.7 points per game at home. Four of the last six games between these teams have gone under the total. In game 2 of this series the Warriors held San Antonio to 39.3% shooting from the field and in game 1 the Spurs were held to 43.8% shooting. If not for a double overtime in the first game of this series this total would be set several points lower than it is today.

The Spurs are 18-7 to the under after playing two consecutive home games this season while Golden State is 13-4 to the under when playing as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the past two seasons. The fact that this series is tied means that both teams feel like they are playing in a must win situation. Nobody wants to be down in the series with the championship dreams on the line. Golden State is playing well defensively right now and the Spurs have to be making defensive adjustments to keep the Warriors from getting points on the board. All signs point to a defensive battle tonight with this game staying under the total.

4* Total Dominator on Heat/Bulls UNDER

The total on this game is set far too high considering how well both of these defenses are playing right now. Miami has gone under the total in four of the last five playoffs games. They have done so while shooting a spectacular 48% from the field. The Bulls are also shooting well, but they are not scoring a lot of points. This is because the style of play for both of these teams requires taking time off the clock to setup each possession.

It is not just game one of this series that went under the total. In head to head matchups the under is 4-1 in the last 5 games played at Miami. The Heat are 6-0 to the under in their last 6 games against NBA central teams. The Bulls are also trending towards the under at 5-2 in the last 7 against teams with a winning record.

Chicago has held opponents to 93.3 points per game on average this season. The Heat had also had impressive defensive numbers holding opponents to 94.5 points per game. Considering the fact that both of these teams run a slowdown offense they are the perfect matchup scenario to stay under the total.

5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Bulls UNDER

With the series between these teams being tied at 3-3 I expect both coaches to be making defensive adjustments coming into game 7. You should always play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points when the playoff series is tied and both teams have a winning record. This system is 34-14 (71%) to the under throughout the last 5 seasons.

Both of these teams are solid defensively with the Bulls holding opponents to 93.4 points per game and the Nets holding opponents to 94.6 points per game on their home court. The fact that one of these teams will be eliminated after tonight

4* Total Annihilator on Nets/Bulls UNDER

Brooklyn is 19-7 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days while Chicago is 13-5 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The fact that this game is being played in Chicago should also help the total. The Bulls have allowed a mere 91.5 points per game at home this season.

The first game played in Chicago ended with a 76-79 final score staying well under the total of 182 points. The second game played at Chicago went way over the total due to the game extending out into triple overtime. The total on that game was set at 176.5 points and it seems like a much more appropriate total for this game over the 184 it is set at today.

Neither team has been spectacular on offense with the Nets averaging 96.6 points per game on the road and the Bulls averaging just 93.7 points at home. After Chicago was blown out to the tune of 110-91 in the last game I expect to see them make a conscious effort to play better defense. They should have a much easier time controlling the pace of this game playing on their home court which makes the under the value play.

3* Total Annihilator on Bulls/Nets UNDER

If not for triple overtime in the last game, the series between the Bulls and Nets has seen very little offensive production. The under is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 road games and 31-14 in their last 45 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. In the last two games played at Brooklyn the Bulls were held to 90 points or less. The series is back in Brooklyn for today's game and should play out very similar to those first two games.

The extra rest that comes in the post season can be a big help when it comes to playing defense. This matchup calls into a system to play on the under when one of the teams is a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, and they have won 51% to 60% of their games on the season and playing against another team with a winning record. This system is 226-159 (59%) to the under for the last 5 seasons.

Nets Head Coach P.J. Carlesimo is 37-17 to the UNDER in home games off a road loss in all games he has coached since 1996. Tom Thibodeau is 20-6 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more as the coach of Chicago. With the day off coming into this game I expect both teams to step up their defensive efforts and that will keep this game under the total.

4* Total No Brainer on Bulls/Nets UNDER

After Thursday's game between these teams it is obvious that both the Bulls and the Nets are struggling to put points on the board this postseason. This series has now fallen into a system to play on the UNDER when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points and the road team scored 35 points or less in the first half of their last game, and the home team is coming off a combined score of 160 points or less. This system is 25-6 (81%) to the UNDER.

The Nets have an average defense, holding opponents to 94.8 points per game. However, their defense performs much better when they are well-rested which is why the Bulls have not been able to do a lot of scoring in this series. Brooklyn is 19-6 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. It is a similar story for Chicago as they are 11-3 to the UNDER in that same scenario.

The Brooklyn Nets are not shooting well, averaging just 35% in the past two games of this series. The Bulls have not been shooting well either, but that is to be expected from a team that averages 92.9 points per game and is up against a solid defense. The Bulls have been phenomenal on the defensive end of the court when they are playing at home. Chicago has held opponents to 90.5 points per game and with Brooklyn being an average scoring team, at best, this game should stay well under the total.

5* Total Dominator on New York/Boston OVER

The first two games between these teams have been a bit of a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Boston will continue to shoot 39.25% like they have so far. New York has shot well below their 44.7% average going 64-155 shooting 41.29% in the playoffs. With the Celtics averaging 47.7% at home they should have no problem putting more points on the board for today's game.

You should always play on the over when one team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent that scored 80 points or less in two straight games. This system is 46-20 (70%) to the OVER. The reason this particular situation results in such a high percentage of games going over the total is because teams will make offensive adjustments when they are struggling to score while the oddsmakers are forced to lower lines to match scoring trends.

Defensively neither team has been great this season. The Knicks are allowing 97.4 points per game when playing on the road while Boston has allowed 96.5 per game. The change in venue is just the spark these teams need to start putting points on the board and because of their poor shooting to start this series the oddsmakers have been forced to set this total much lower than it should be.

5* Total No Brainer on Memphis UNDER

The Grizzlies are known for their defense and physical play in the pain. Playing at home with rest should help their defense step up the level of play in the post season. Memphis is 12-1 (92%) to the under when playing 4 or less games in a 10 day span this season.

This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 179.5-189.5 points in a game involving two teams holding opponents to 43.5-45.5% shooting and the road team is a good ball handling team averaging 14.5 or less turnovers per game against an average pressure defense that forces 14.5-16.5 turnovers. This system is 41-22 (65%) over the last 5 seasons.

The last two games have gone over the total because the Clippers have been able to shoot an average above 50% from the field. A change in venue is more than enough to slow the Clippers down and the Grizzlies are not a team that lights up the scoreboard at home averaging just 93.2 points per game. The under is the value play in a game that should end up being a defensive battle.

3* Total Dominator on Brooklyn/Chicago UNDER

After the Bulls let the Nets score 106 points in the series opener we saw a defense oriented game plan in the second game of this series. The series is now tied at 1-1 which places this game in a system to play on the UNDER. Over the past 5 seasons you would have an 80-42 (66%) record if playing the under in a playoff series that is tied.

The venue has now moved to Chicago where the Bulls have held opponents to 90.9 points per game. The Bulls are 25-16 to the under in home games on the season. Defensively the Nets are not far behind Chicago holding opponents to 95 points per game. In the playoffs they held Chicago to 89 points in game 1 of the series and 90 points in game 2.

The under is 19-9 in the Nets last 28 games being played on 2 or more days of rest. In head to head meetings being played at Chicago the under is 5-2 and the Bulls are 5-1 to the under in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals game. The oddsmakers have set the total far too high for a matchup that features two strong defensive units and a pair of offenses that rarely light up the scoreboard with points.

5* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs OVER

The first game in this series stayed easily UNDER the 191 total that was set and in the second to last regular season game the teams played well UNDER the posted total of 193. However, dropping this total down to 186.5 is an over-adjustment by the odds makers as I think you will see both teams play better offensively here tonight.

The Lakers are giving up 46.3% from the floor on the road and 38.3% from 3-point range while San Antonio shoots 49.4% from the floor and 38.3% from deep at home. The Lakers shoot 45.8% from the floor while the Spurs allow 44.2%. The fact that both teams shot 41.1% or worse the last two times these two teams met and have hit less than a third of their 3-point attempts means it's time for some regression back to the mean.

The Lakers are 10-2 for the OVER this year when taking to the road to face a team that outscores their opponents by 3+ ppg. This one goes OVER the low total here tonight.

4* Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs UNDER

These two teams met just a week ago in LA and the final score was 86-91. I know Steve Nash will be playing tonight and he normally ups the tempo and creates on offense, but the Lakers are not as good offensively without Kobe Bryant on the floor. Against the Rockets in their final regular season game they went well under the total as well.

San Antonio is an under-rated defensive team that only allows 94.3 ppg at home. They are coming off a high scoring first half in their last game, but the Spurs are 11-3 UNDER this season after putting up 60 or more in the first half of their previous game.

The Lakers are 17-7 UNDER the last two years against teams that score 103+ ppg while the Sprus are 23-13 UNDER this year against teams above .500. This one will be low scoring so take the UNDER.

4* "Never Lost" Total on Grizzlies/Clippers OVER

These two teams have gone UNDER the last three times they have faced off, but that has created some value in tonight's number. The total back on 3/13 when these two last met in LA was 185 and only went UNDER by four points, which would have put us OVER tonight's number.

The Clippers are an offensive force, especially at home where they are putting up 104.1 ppg on 49.3% shooting and 37.2% accuracy from behind the 3-point line. Memphis is a solid defensive team, but they are giving up 4 more points per game on the road than they do at home.

The line sitting at -4.5 puts us in a perfect situation here tonight as the Clippers are 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of six points or less this season, with those games averaging 207.2 ppg.

5* Total No Brainer on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 189.5

I don't expect a lot of points in this game tonight, largely due to how both teams will ratchet up the defensive intensity. Last year Boston scored 89.5 while holding opponents to 88.5 in their 20 playoff games.

Neither team is a slouch on defense to begin with as the Knicks are giving up just 94 points per game at home and the Celtics allow just 96.7 ppg overall. The last three times these two teams have squared off the game has gone UNDER the total.

The other thing I like about the UNDER here is that New York is getting Tyson Chandler and Marcus Camby back for this one. Those two guys will only solidify the Knick defense and make it more difficult for Boston to score.

The last five games for Boston have gone over the total which has given us inflated this number for us a little bit and it's too good of value to pass up on. New York is 8-0 for the UNDER at home against teams making 46% of more of their shots in the second half of the last two seasons.

5* Total No Brainer on Spurs/Lakers UNDER

San Antonio has been trending heavily towards the under in recent games. They have gone under the total is 7 of their last 10 games. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when you have a team like San Antonio that is outscoring their opponents by an average of 6 or more points per game when playing on Sunday. This system is 167-91 (65%) over the last five seasons.

The Lakers have gone under at a rate of 10-1 in their last 11 home games when playing against a team with a winning road record. They are also 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games played on Sunday. These teams have a strong head to head history of getting into a low scoring battle. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 games played at Los Angeles and it is 20-7 the last 27 meetings overall. These angles are a combined 42-11 (79%) to the under.

With the Lakers fighting to keep that 8th spot in in the Western Conference playoffs race I expect to see them really step it up defensively. Their defense certainly plays much better at home than they go on the road holding opponents to 3.6 points per game less than their overall average. The offense does not get much of a boost with just 6 tenths of a point in increased scoring production when playing at home.

3* Total Dominator on Pacers UNDER

Indiana has failed to cover the spread in their last four games. They are 19-5 to the under when they have failed to cover 3 or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The under is 5-2 in the Pacers last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. That is a perfect fit for an under angle from the Knicks as they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game. The under is also 4-1 in New York

4* Total Dominator on Bulls/Knicks UNDER

The Bulls beat New York back on January 11th as well as on December 21st this season. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams, in this case it is New York, is revenging two consecutive straight up losses against an opponent as a favorite when they are a good team winning 60-57% of their games playing another team with a winning record. This system is 121-72 (63%) in favor of the under.

When playing at home the Bulls defense has held opponents to 90.3 points per game. Their offense has only scored slightly more than the defense is allowing at 92.8 points per game which indicates the slow pace of play for games played in Chicago. The Knicks offense has not done that well on the road averaging just 96.8 points per game and they have faced few defenses that are as tough and scrappy as this Bulls team.

Coach Tom Thibodeau for Chicago is 30-11 to the under after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls have already gone under the total in four of their last five games. The Knicks should also be playing with a little more of a defensive effort after allowing the Bulls to score 108 points in their last game.

5* Total No Brainer on Spurs/Nuggets UNDER

This game falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and one team, in this matchup it is San Antonio, has gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games and they are winning 60-75% of their games on the season playing another team with a winning record. This system is 38-14 (73%) to the under throughout the last five seasons.

The Spurs are 6-0 to the under in their last 6 consecutive road games and they are 5-1 to the under when playing against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are facing a Nuggets team that is 5-1 to the under in their last 6 home games and 4-1 to the under at home against teams with a winning record on the road. These team specific trends are a combined 20-3 (87%) to the under this season.

San Antonio is very solid defensively and they have held opponents to an average of 96.2 points per game this season. They are playing exceptionally well lately holding opponents to just 92.2 points per game in their last 5 games. It is unfortunate for Spurs fans, but the offense is not performing well over that same time span. They are averaging that same 92.2 points per game offensively. They face a Denver defense that has held opponents to 97.7 points per game. The Spurs will be one of the better defensive units the Nuggets have faced on their home court so it is unlikely they will reach their typical scoring average which makes the under a no brainer in this game.

5* Total Annihilator on Hawks/Spurs UNDER

The Hawks offense has been struggling on the road. They average 95.9 points per game and they will have their hands full against a San Antonio defense that has held opponents to 93.7 points per game at home. The Atlanta Hawks are 4-0 to the under in their last four games overall and they are 5-1 to the under following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. They are playing in a back to back situation which also favors the under at a rate of 10-3 the last 13 games playing with no rest.

The Spurs have also gone under the total in their last 4 games and they are 5-0 to the under in their last 5 games against Southeast division teams. San Antonio is 13-3 to the under in their last 16 games following a straight up loss this season. In head to head matchups between these teams the under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played at San Antonio. The Spurs defense has played extremely well at home. The offense has been struggling recently averaging only 93.2 points per game in their last five games. All signs point to this game ending with a low score.

5* Total No Brainer on Hornets/Warriors UNDER

Golden State has gone under the total in five of their last seven games. They are 5-0 to the under in their last 5 games against Southwest Division teams and they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season. They are well rested coming into this game so there should not be any tired legs on the defensive end of the court.

The Hornets are 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days of rest. The extra rest for both teams should help improve their defensive numbers. Golden State is allowing 97.4 points per game at home while New Orleans is allowing 97.6 points per game. The Hornets defense has been better in their last five games holding opponents to 94.8 per game.

The style of play from these teams indicates this game should be low scoring. The last time these teams met was back on March 18th and the total was 196 points with the teams scoring a combined 165 points in a 93-72 game. Both teams are playing well right now with the Hornets winning four of their last six and Golden State winning five of their last seven. These recent win streaks have been because of solid defensive performances.

4* Total Annihilator on Nets/Jazz OVER

Brooklyn has gone over the total in six of their last seven road games. They are also 5-1 to the over against Western Conference Teams and 4-1 to the over when playing on 0 days of rest. The Jazz are also a team that trends to the over when playing without rest as they are 5-1 the last six games played without getting a day off.

The Jazz have a great home court advantage and that has helped their offense shine when playing in Utah. They are averaging 100.1 points per game at home while their defense is allowing an average of 98.6 points per game. Brooklyn is a solid offensive team and should not have a problem going above their 96.1 point per game average against the weak Jazz defense. With both of these teams playing without rest we have a matchup that is sure to be light on defense which should push this game above the total.

3* Total No Brainer on Clippers/Rockets UNDER

The Rockets are playing solid defense right now holding opponents to 94.8 points per game in their last five games. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when the total is between 200 to 209.5 points and there is a well-rested team like Houston playing 4 or less games in 10 days and they are winning 51-60% of their games and playing another team with a winning record. This system is 50-16 (76%) to the under over the last five seasons.

The Clippers defense has been solid all season holding opponents to 94.3 points per game. They should have no problem keeping Houston in line considering Los Angeles is one of the best teams in the league. The Rockets are 29-13 to the under when the total is set between 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons. With the Rockets playing solid defense and going up against one of the best teams in the league this game should have no problem staying under the total.

3* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/TWolves OVER

Both of these teams have played a lot of games recently and the first thing tired teams give up on is defense. Minnesota has scored over 100 points in four of their last five games while the Grizzlies have gone over the total in their last four consecutive games. Neither team has a good defense to begin with and the fact that they are both playing tired should make the over an easy cover.

This game falls into a system to play on the over when the total is 180 to 189.5 points and the home team is making 33% or less of their three point attempts and playing on a Saturday game. This system is 47-25 (65%) over the last five seasons. Minnesota is also 4-1 to the over in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game.

3* Total Annihilator on Hawks/Celtics OVER

Atlanta

3* Total No Brainer on Bucks/76ers OVER

Both of these teams have been playing horrible defense recently. In their last five games the Bucks have allowed 101.6 points per game on 48.1% shooting and the 76ers have allowed 102.4 points per game on 48.2% shooting. You should always play on the over when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and the road team has allowed 100 points or more in 2 straight games playing against an opponent that allowed 105 points or more in their previous game. This system is 188-124 (60%) since 1996.

Milwaukee is 5-2 to the over in their last 7 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games and they are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The 79ers are 4-0 to the over in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record and 5-1 in their last 6 home games overall. With both of these defenses struggling the way they are this game should have no problem going over the total.

3* Total Dominator on Twolves/Pistons OVER

Both of these teams are bad defensively. You should always play on the over when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing 45.5-47.5% shooting and two average rebounding teams after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 222-146 (60.3%) since 1996.

The over is 7-2 in Minnesota

3* Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hawks UNDER

Atlanta has gone under the total in their last two games while Milwaukee has gone under in their last three. You should always play on the under when the total is between 200 to 209.5 and the home team has gone under the total by 30 points or more in their last three games. This system is 124-75 (62%) over the last five seasons.

This matchup falls into another system to play on the under. You should take the under when the total is 200 points or more and one of the teams has been beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their last game, like Atlanta, and when they are playing against an opponent that has gone under the total by 30 or more points in the last three games. This system is 29-9 (76%) over the last five seasons.

Milwaukee is 11-2 to the under when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The Bucks are the only real scoring threat in this game as they average 100 points per game at home. They seem to be in a shooting rout right now averaging 34% from the field in their last two games so it seems unlikely they will be able to match that home scoring average in today

3* Total Dominator on Nuggets/Kings UNDER

This total is set much higher than it should be. You should always play on the under when the game involves a team like Denver that is averaging 71% or less on free throws and 46% shooting or better from the field. This system is 139-101 (58%) over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are a poor free throw shooting team averaging only 69.6% so they will not be adding a lot of points when the clock is stopped.

Sacramento

3* Total Dominator on Cavs/Rockets UNDER

Cleveland is coming off a close loss to Miami and their defense looked impressive in that game. You should play the under when the total is 210 points or more and a team is revenging a same season loss like Cleveland and they are off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system is 50-27 (65%) over the last five seasons.

This matchup falls into another system to play the under when the total is greater than 210 points and one of the teams, in this case Houston, has been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points in their last three games playing against an opponent that has gone over the total by 18 or more points in the last three games. This system is 113-82 (62%) in favor of the under.

The Cavaliers are going to need to score over 100 points for this game to go over the total. That is a feat they have accomplished only 2 times in their last 10 games. It seems very unlikely they will be able to do it against this Houston team that has gone under the total in six of their last seven games.

3* Total No Brainer on Heat/Pistons OVER

You should always play on the over in a game involving a team that has 7 or more consecutive wins and they have won 75% or more of their games on the season playing a team with a losing record. This system is 110-70 (61.1%) to the over. When that team is off 8 or more consecutive wins, that system tightens up to 82-52 in favor of the over.

Detroit may not have a great overall record but they can still get a lot of points on the board. The Pistons have gone over the total in five of their last six games. Their defense is allowing 101.6 points per game on the road which has been a big factor in this recent stretch of overs, but the offense has been performing well too averaging over 95 points per game in three of their last five games.

5* Total Dominator on Rockets/Jazz UNDER

You should always play the under when the total is greater than or equal to 200 and one of the teams, in this case Houston, is a well-rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, and they have won 51% to 60% of their games playing another winning team. This system is 68-27 (71.6%) over the last 5 seasons.

You also want to play on the under when the total is greater than 200 and the home team has gone under the total by 24 or more points in their last three games and the game involves two teams with a winning record. This system is 65-29 (69%) over the last 5 seasons.

The Jazz have gone 4-0 to the under in their last 4 games when they are playing with only 1 day of rest and they are 5-1 to the under against teams from the Southwest division. The Rockets are 5-1 to the under against Western Conference teams and 4-1 to the under in their last five home games.

4* Total No Brainer on Mavs/Nets UNDER

Both Dallas and Brooklyn are coming off big wins. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when the total is set between 190-199.5 points and the home team is off a win by 10 points or more against an opponent off a win by 15 points or more. This system is 128-77 (62.4%) to the under since 1996.

Brooklyn has played a soft schedule their last four games and they have managed to score over 100 points in each of those matchups. Their recent scoring success has driven this total up higher than it should be. You should also play on the under when one of the teams has gone over the total by 6 or more points in four consecutive games and that team has a winning record and the total is set between 190-199.5 points. This system is 50-24 (67.6%) in favor of the under.

5* Total No Brainer on Heat/Celtics UNDER

Miami is 8-1 to the under in their last 9 games when playing without rest and they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 road games. When playing on the road against a team with a winning home record, the Heat are 5-2 to the under in their last 7 games. In their last 5 matchups against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season the Celtics are 4-1 to the under.

The last time these teams played the total reached 198 points, but that was only because they went to double overtime. The score at the end of regulation was 174 points in that game. It is unlikely these teams will go to double overtime again making the under the value play in this matchup.

Neither of these teams takes a lot of shots with both the Celtics and Heat averaging fewer than 80 field goal attempts per game. The Heat have gone under the total in three of their last four games and the Celtics defense has been solid at home holding opponents to 42.6% shooting. The style of play for these teams makes the under a no brainer.

3* Total Annihilator on Wizards/Bobcats OVER

You should always play the over when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points with the home team is coming off a game where they allowed 105 points or more and they are playing against an opponent that is coming off a game scoring 110 points or more. This system is 62-30 (67.4%) in favor of the over.

You should also play the over when the game involves an average offensive team scoring 92-98 points and coming off a game with a combined score of 225 points or more like Washington, against a horrible defensive team that is allowing 102 or more points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 50-19 (72.5%) in favor of the over.

3* Total Dominator on Indiana/Cleveland UNDER

You should always play the under when the total is between 180 to 190.5 points and the road team is off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite and they are a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season. This system is 48-18 (72.7%) in favor of the under.

This total has been driven up because the Pacers have been on a run of games going over the total. You should also play the under when one of the teams has played 5 or more consecutive overs and they are outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game. This system is 154-95 (61.8%) since 1996.

3* Total Dominator on Heat/Raptors UNDER

Miami is not a team that needs to score a lot of points to win games. They have scored over 100 points in only three of their last nine games and they still have a 9.6 point margin of victory in that span. This means their defense is being undervalued by the oddsmakers when the total is set this high. In that same nine game span the under is 6-2-1 with the average total being set at 195 points.

This game falls into a system to play the under when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and both the home team and opponent are coming off a win by 10 points or more. This system is 111-62 (64.2%) ATS. The Raptors are 6-0 to the under in their last six games against Southeast division teams. In head to head games between these teams the under is 5-2 in the 7 meetings.

5* Total No Brainer Wizards/Suns OVER

You should always play the over in a game involving two teams averaging 92-98 points per game after one of those teams has allowed 105 points or more in three straight games. The Suns gave up 108 to Denver, 111 to Houston and 107 to Atlanta. This system is 45-18 (71.4%) over the last 5 seasons.

The first thing a tired team gives up on is playing defense. This is why you should play the over when the total is 180-189.5 and one of the teams is off a road loss by 10 points or more and they are an extremely tied team playing their 3rd game in 4 days. This system is 120-77 (61%) over the last 5 seasons. The Suns are bad enough on defense allowing 104.6 points per game on the road and playing tired means this game should be an offensive show.

5* Total No Brainer on Grizzlies/Nuggets UNDER

A strong offensive performance from a team will impact the total line more than a strong defensive performance. This is why you should play the under when the total is between 190.5 and 199.5 after one team is coming off a game where they allowed 85 points or less like Memphis and their opponent has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 80-45 (64%) ATS.

You should also play the under when one team is off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, like Denver, and their opponent is off a road win by 10 points or more. This system is 94-46 (67%) ATS. Both Memphis and Denver are trending towards the under. Denver has gone under the total in three of their last four games while Memphis has gone under in three of their last five games.

The Grizzlies are a very defense oriented team. They are holding opponents to an average score of 89.4 points per game. Memphis is 17-7 to the under after allowing 85 points or less this season. They are one of the best teams in the league and should have no problem controlling the pace of this game.

4* Total Dominator on Heat/Bucks UNDER

As good as Miami is, they are not a team that blows up the scoreboard each night. You should always play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 and the road team is a very good team outscoring their opponents by 6 or more points per game and they are playing against an opponent coming off a performance where they allowed 105 points or more. This system is 47-22 (68%) to the under through the last 5 seasons.

Miami is 5-1-1 to the under in their last seven games. In their last 10 games the total has been set above 200 only three times. Miami is 4-1 to the under in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Milwaukee is 7-1-1 to the under in their last 9 games following a loss. Milwaukee is certainly not an offensive powerhouse so this total appears to be set quite a bit higher than it should be.

4* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER

You should always play the under in a game involving two good teams winning 60% to 75% of their games when playing in March. This system is 86-40 (68%) over the last five seasons. The second half of the NBA season can take its toll on even the best of teams and a tired team will not score as many points because they will not be out running on fast break plays.

The under is 4-1 in the Grizzlies last five games against teams with a winning record and the Clippers are 4-0 to the under in that same scenario. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 head to head meetings between these teams. The Memphis defense is one of the best in the league holding opponents to 89.5 points per game. The oddsmakers have set this total based on the offensive production of the Clippers at home rather than the defensive numbers for both teams making the UNDER a value play.

3* Total Dominator on Hawks/Heat UNDER

The Atlanta Hawks have gone under the total in four of their last five road games and under in five of their last seven overall. The Miami Heat have gone under the total in three of their last five games overall with one game going over and one game ending on a push. In head to head meetings between these teams the under is 14-3 in the last 17 games played at Miami.

As good as the Heat are, they do have their weaknesses. They are not a great rebounding team averaging 45.7 boards per game at home. Atlanta is 15-5 to the under against teams averaging 48 or less rebounds per game over the last two seasons. The Hawks are a good team holding opponents to 96.1 points per game on the road. Atlanta knows they cannot win this game if they get into a shootout with the Heat so they should have a game plan in place that will slow down Miami's scoring and help keep this game under the total.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Thunder UNDER

The Thunder have gone under the total in 4 of their last 6 games while the Bobcats have gone under in 10 of their last 13 games. Oklahoma may have the explosive offense but they are playing in a back to back situation and coming from a hard fought battle against the Knicks at New York. Charlotte is playing on a day of rest and the only three games in the last 13 that have gone over the total have come when the Bobcats were forced to play in a back to back situation.

You should play the under in games involving a team allowing 103+ points per game on the season coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. This system is 226-147 (60.6%) since 1996. You should also play the under in games where the total is greater than 200 and the road team, Oklahoma City, is averaging 102 or more points per game against a team that averages 92-98 points per game, after allowing 55 or more points in the first half in two straight games. This system is 37-12 (75.5%) to the under over the last five seasons. When teams are allowing a big first half they make defensive adjustments to ensure they do not fall behind early which also helps keep games under the total.

4* NBA TOTAL DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER

When teams are getting blowout wins it is usually because their defense is playing well. The Grizzlies just held Orlando to 82 points. Portland has played a couple of back to back soft games so they may not be prepared when facing this stout Grizzlies defense. You should always play the under when one of the teams is coming off a win by 10 or more points like Portland, and they are playing against an opponent off a win by 20 or more points. This system is 351-248 (58.6%) since 1996. When that team

5* Total NO BRAINER on Pacers/Bulls UNDER

You should always play the under when one team allowed 40 points or less in the first half in two straight games like the Chicago Bulls have done. This system is 126-75 (62.7%) to the under over the last five seasons. The Bulls defense is playing well right now and they have gone under the total in four of their last six games. The Pacers defense has been solid all season allowing a mere 88.8 points per game at home.

Chicago is 32-12 to the under when they are revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. That number tightens up to 15-2 to the under when they are revenging a road loss of 10 points or more. Both of these teams had uncharacteristic performances in the last meeting with each team allowing over 100 points. That should have both teams making defensive adjustments for today

5* Total NO BRAINER on Clippers/Thunder UNDER

Well rested teams play better defense and both the Clippers and Thunder have played 6 or less games over the last two weeks. You should always play the under when the total is 200 or more and the home team has a winning record and is a well-rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days playing another team with a winning record. This system is 201-136 (59.6%) to the under over the last five seasons.

You should also play the under when the road team, Oklahoma City, is off an upset loss as a road favorite and they have a winning record on the season and are playing another winning team. This system is 62-25 (71.3%) since 1996.

Since the Clippers were blown out in the last game against the Thunder they will come into this game with a defense oriented game plan. They cannot allow the Thunder to score 109 points again if they want to win this game.

3* Total Dominator Knicks/Heat UNDER

This game falls into a system to play the under when a team like Miami is revenging two consecutive straight up losses to an opponent as a favorite and they are a good team winning 60-75% of their games playing a team with a winning record. This system is 120-72 (62.5%) since 1996. Without a doubt the Miami Heat will be coming into this game with a plan of attack that prevents the Knicks from turning this game into a shootout.

The Heat are allowing 95.4 points per game on the road this season while the Knicks have allowed 94.9 points per game at home. Neither team gets into foul trouble which means there will be very few points put on the board with the clock stopped. The Knicks are not shooting well right now at 41.5% in their last five games.

The Under is 6-1 in the Knicks last seven games following an ATS win and 8-3-1 in the Heat

5* NBA TOTAL NO BRAINER on Kings/Spurs OVER

The Kings run a lazy defense, and they average over 20 fouls per game when playing on the road. Sacramento is 20-7 to the over when playing against good free throw shooting teams that are making 76% or more of their attempts this season. It seems like the Kings have stopped playing defense all together, going over the total in eight of their last nine games. In head to head matchups between these teams the over is 4-1 the last 5 games being played at San Antonio. Head coach Keith Smart is 27-13 to the over when playing with double revenge after 2 straight losses against an opponent as the coach of Sacramento.

The Kings are allowing 104.8 points per game when playing on the road and the Spurs are scoring 105 points per game at home. Sacramento is averaging over 111 points per game in their last five games so it is safe to say their offense is hot right now. The Spurs just finished a 9 game run on the road to come home and give up 105 points to the Phoenix Suns. They have had only one day of rest and now face a Sacramento team that is putting points on the board with ease. This game should have no problem going over the total.

4* NBA TOTAL DOMINATOR on Raptors/Pacers UNDER

Indiana is 17-8 to the under when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Some teams make adjustments to the offense and others to the defense when they are not playing well. The Raptors are a team that makes defensive adjustments which explains why they are 30-16 to the under after failing to cover two of their last three games against the spread over the last two seasons. The Raptors lost as a favorite against Golden State and as a favorite against the Clippers. Head coach Dwane Casey will certainly have a plan to slow down the Pacers which will help us on the under.

Indiana is allowing 89.6 points per game and scoring only 89.2 points per game when playing on the road. Toronto has allowed 95.4 points at home, but the Pacers are one of the worst road teams in the league when it comes to scoring so they should be able to perform much better than their statistical average. Neither team has problems with foul trouble which is good for an under because it keeps the clock running.

5* NBA TOTAL NO BRAINER on Kings/Magic OVER

You should play on the over when the game involves two average offensive teams scoring 92-98 points per game after one of those teams allowed 105 points or more in three straight games. In this matchup that team would be Sacramento and this system is 42-18 (70%) over the last five seasons.

Sacramento has had a lot of foul trouble this season. When a team has a lot of fouls it makes sense that the game would go over the total. The clock is stopped and points are getting put on the board. Sacramento is 19-7 to the over vs. good free throw shooting teams that are making 76% or more of their attempts this season. Orlando is 15-4 to the over against up-temp teams that are averaging 83 or more shots per game in the send half of the season over the last three seasons.

Both of these teams struggle defensively. Sacramento is allowing 105 points per game on the road while Orlando is allowing over 100 points per game at home. With both teams making a lot of shot attempts and neither team having very good numbers defensively the over is the no brainer in this game.

5* Total No Brainer Mavs/Bucks UNDER

Both teams are coming off home losses with Milwaukee losing to Atlanta as a -4.5 favorite and Dallas losing to the Lakers as a -3 point favorite. You should play the under in a game where the total is over 200 and both teams are off an upset loss as a favorite and at least one of those losses came as a home favorite. This system is 86-52 (62.3%) the last 138 times the situation has occurred.

The under is 5-0-1 in Milwaukee

4* TOTAL DOMINATOR on Bulls/Thunder UNDER

You should play the under on a game where one team, Chicago, has allowed 90 points or less in three straight games is playing against an opponent, Oklahoma City, scoring 100 points or more in three straight games. This trend is 28-8 (77.8%) over the last 5 seasons. Chicago is also 23-11 to the under versus good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game over the last 2 seasons.

5* NO BRAINER on Cleveland/Miami UNDER

Always play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points in a game involving a team like Miami that is outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game and playing against an opponent coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more. This system is 58-30 (65.9%) over the last 5 seasons. Miami is also 13-4 to the under in home games when playing their third game in four days over the last two seasons.

3* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Heat/Bulls UNDER

Always play the under when there is an extremely well rested team like Chicago who is winning 51-60% of their games and playing 3 or less games in 10 days and facing a winning team. This system has gone under the total in 30 of the last 41 games during the last five seasons.

Chicago is 8-0 to the under in home games against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game this season. They are also 21-6 favoring the under in games against Southeast division teams over the last two seasons.

The Bulls defense has been remarkable at home holding opponents to 88.9 points per game and only 41.1% shooting. The offense shoots only 42.8% in home games and with those to factors combined all signs point to a low scoring game tonight.

4* TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Thunder UNDER

The value in this game is on the under as the oddsmakers have set this total a little too high. Always play the under when there is an extremely well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days like Houston, and they are winning between 51-60% of their games in a matchup against another winning team. This system is 153-103 ATS for the last five seasons.

Oklahoma City is 19-9 to the under off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons while Houston is 33-14 to the under in home games after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games since 1996. With Houston playing as a well rested team and being on their home court they should be able to control the tempo of this game. The Rockets know if they get into a shootout with the Thunder they will have no chance to win this game. Houston should be able to slow things down at least long enough to make the under the value play in this matchup.

3* Total Dominator on Heat/Hawks UNDER

The under is 18-7 in Miami's last 25 games and 17-6 in Atlanta

3* Total No Brainer Bobcats/Pistons OVER

The Detroit Pistons are 25-13 to the over against teams being outscored by their opponents by 3 or more points per game over the last two seasons. That tightens up to 26-10 to the over when their opponent is outscored by 6 or more points per game. The over is also 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 games against a team with a losing record. It is the same story for Charlotte at 4-0 to the over against teams with a losing record.

The Bobcats and Pistons have gone over the total four of the last five times these teams played in Charlotte. The Bobcats have allowed 102 points per game at home and they have allowed opponents to shoot 38.1% from beyond the three point line. They do not run a tight defense and they give up a lot of easy points. The Piston

3* TOTAL NO BRAINER Chicago/New Orleans UNDER

It is better to play the under in a game involving a team averaging 92-98 points per game like Chicago against an average defensive team allowing 92-98 points per game after 42 or more games and coming off a performance where they allowed 75 points or less. This trend is 93-49 since 1996.

New Orleans plays better on defense when they are facing a team with a winning record on their home court and they are 22-11 to the under in that situation over the last two seasons. The Bulls are a team that gets a lot of their points off of turnovers and New Orleans averages just 13 turnovers per game at home this season.

The Bulls are 60-38 to the under against good ball handling teams like New Orleans in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons and with both teams having some extra rest from the NBA all-star break this game should be a defensive battle.

4* TOTAL DOMINATOR Charlotte/Orlando OVER

This matchup falls into a system to play on the over where the total is between 190-199.5 points in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 45.5-47.5% shooting and two average rebounding teams after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 208-140 since 1996.

This game also falls into a system to play the over when one of the teams is off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival when the opponent is off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points. Both Charlotte and Orlando scored less than 80 points in their last game and suffered embarrassing losses with Charlotte losing to Indiana and Orlando losing to Atlanta. This system is 31-5 ATS since 1996.

The Magic are not a team that gets to the foul line very often and the Bobcats are 13-5 to the over versus teams attempting 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Bobcats average 20 fouls per game on the road so they are obviously giving up a lot of easy baskets. Orlando is 22-11 to the over versus teams who average 21 or less fouls per game this season.

3* on Denver/Cleveland OVER

Can the Nuggets offense be stopped? They have put up 112 or more points in their last four games and haven't scored under 100 since back on January 16th. Surprisingly, the Cavs have turned into an offensive juggernaut lately as well. Cleveland has put up 115 or more points in their last three games. With those kinds of offensive numbers it's no surprise both teams have gone OVER in five straight games.

You want to take the OVER when one team went OVER by 18 in their previous game and they are taking on an opponent that went OVER by 24 in their last game. This situation is 355-241 (59.6%) since 1996. If the total for the current game is over 200 then that number jumped to 147-90 (62%).

This is one of the highest totals set so far this season and when the total is set above 212, the OVER has gone 12-4. Both of these teams give up over 100 ppg and with both offenses clicking, this one should go over easy.

5* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Mavs/Blazers UNDER

We are getting some value in this line tonight because Dallas has been so bad defensively on the year, giving up 103.1 ppg. They just gave up 112 points in a 21 point loss to Oklahoma City, but teams like Dallas normally buckle down on that end of the floor after a bad loss. You want to play on teams that are giving up 103+ ppg on the season after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. These teams go UNDER at a pace of 223-145 (60.6%) since 1996.

Dallas is actually allowing 4 ppg less at home than they do on the road, and their 101 ppg in Dallas is a little inflated from playing the likes of Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver, and Houston in a good portion of those games. Portland isn't going to keep pace with those teams when they only score 94.1 ppg on the road for the season.

These two teams have met twice this season and this is the highest total yet. Last time they faced each other Dallas shot 50% and 53.5% from behind the arc, both teams shot 78.3% or better from the line, and they only managed to score 210 points. In the first meeting Dallas shot 61.5% from the floor and 50% from the 3-point line and scored 114. I don't think you can expect out of this world shooting numbers a third time in a row.

4* on the Kings/Jazz UNDER

This total has been set too high tonight. Sacramento is in a serious offensive funk right now. The Kings have scored 81 points or less in each of their last three games and haven't topped the century mark in seven straight outings.

Utah hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. Utah has scored 100 points or less in five of their last seven and are averaging just 96.6 ppg over their last five.

The UNDER is 11-4 in Utah's last 15 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 12-3 in the Kings last 15 games following a game where they allowed 110 points or more.

4* Blazers/Jazz UNDER

Hard not to like the Jazz and Blazers to go UNDER again tonight with the total just slightly lower than last night's. Portland and Utah played a very low scoring game in which the Jazz won 86-77 on their home floor. Now they travel up to Portland for a quick rubber match, and there isn't time to make offensive adjustments to change anything.

Portland shot just 36.7% from the floor while the Jazz only managed 43.2%. Utah was just 4-for-15 from behind the 3-point arc while the Blazers were 7-for-20. Portland managed just one quarter of more than 20 points, while the Jazz only managed 13 points in the final frame.

With two teams that are fighting for playoff spots against each other, I think the intensity will be there tonight and we are in for another low scoring affair.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER

Minnesota has been playing some high scoring games lately. Both them and their opponents have scored 100+ in three of the last four games, including lats night's 100-111 loss to the LA Lakers. Minnesota is typically a low scoring team, but obviously they are pushing the tempo a little bit here recently. Plus, the Wolves are 13-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record this year.

New Orleans has now allowed 100 or more points in seven of their last eight games after last night's 98-113 loss to Denver. They are 15-7 OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 this season and 12-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record.

These two teams have met twice already this year with final scores of 113-102 and 92-104, both well over today's total. I just can't see these two teams deciding today is the day they want to play defense, so I think you'll see another final score in the 190's or even higher.

A solid system supports our play that says to take the OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 and one tam is off a road loss by 10 points or more and playing their 3rd game in four nights. The OVER is 114-75 (60.3%) in this situation the last five years.

4* on Kings/Knicks UNDER

The Kings are scoring just 91.7 ppg on the road and they actually give up 1.5 ppg less away from home too. The Knicks are a good defensive team that allows just 95.4 ppg at the Garden. Sacramento hasn't scored more than 96 points since back on January 21st and is doing off back-to-back 81 and 80 point performances.

The Knicks stopped the Milwaukee offense dead in it's tracks last night, giving up just 86 points on 39.8% shooting to the Bucks. New York has now held seven of their last eight opponents to 97 or less points.

You want to take the UNDER when the total is between 200-209.5 when a team is revering a loss as a favorite and that team has won 60% or more of their games on the season. The UNDER is 193-128 (60.1%) in this situation since 1996. You also want to take the UNDER in non-conference games when a team went under the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 58-19 (75.3%) the last five years in this situation.

3* on Hornets/Nuggets OVER

There is some solid value with this line here tonight. New Orleans is averaging 93.6 ppg and only giving up 97.4, but if you look at their road splits those numbers jump up to 96.4 and 99.3. Not only that but this team has given up 100 or more points in six of their last seven games.

Now they take on one of the best scoring teams in the league, especially at home where the Nuggets are putting up 108 ppg on 47.5% shooting. Since New Orleans allows 46.7% from the floor that's not good news for them. Denver has scored 102 or more points in six straight games and Indiana was the team they put up 102 against, a lot better defense than they will face tonight. This one is going to be high scoring so take the OVER.

5* NBA Pre-All Star TOTAL of the YEAR on Heat/Pacers UNDER

This should be a defensive battle tonight and I love the UNDER in a big way. Miami is coming off a 105-85 win at Brooklyn while the Pacers are coming off a 98-79 win over Detroit. Both teams played solid defense and I expect that to continue here tonight. Plus, that sets us up for a nice situation where you want to play the UNDER when a team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent of a blowout of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 202-132 (60.5%) in this situation since 1996. Where the total is 180-189.5 and a team that scores 99+ ppg is off a blowout win by 20 or more like Miami is, the UNDER is 105-57 (64.8%) since 1996.

When teams play hard it normally leads to lower scoring games. When do teams play their hardest? Against other good teams and when the national spotlight is on them. Tonight this game will be on ESPN and both teams clock in with good records, Miami is 29-13 and Indiana is 27-19. Both want to make a statement to their opponents. Miami wants to show Indiana they aren't in their league while the Pacers want to prove they are. When you get two good teams playing on Friday nights the UNDER is 149-99 (60.1%) the last five seasons.

The Pacers are allowing teams that score 97.3 ppg to put up only 86.7 ppg against them at home. Indiana is scoring only 91.8 ppg on the year against teams that allow 95 ppg. Miami on the other hand is way better at home than on the road. Away from South Beach this team is scoring 98.6 ppg against opponents scoring 97.7 but they are holding opponents to just under their season average.

These two teams met in Indiana back on January 8th and the final score was 87-77 Indiana. I think the Pacers are going to slow this game way down again, and both teams take defense seriously. Points will be at a premium tonight as this game stays way under the total.

5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Warriors/Mavs UNDER

Dallas has scored 104 or more points in nine straight games now and with Golden State's history of high scoring games we have a lot of value in the UNDER here tonight. Dallas has gone OVER in five straight games while Golden State has gone OVER in four in a row. To see how much padding that gives us here tonight you only have to go back to the last time these two teams met, when the total was set at 200. Six points is quite a jump for a same-season rematch game, and it's too much.

Jackson has instilled a defensive philosophy into his young Warrior team. They are actually holding opponents to just 96.6 ppg at home this year, below their opponents average of 97.8 ppg. They are doing it by holding them to 42.1% from the floor and 30.9% from the 3-point line.

The Warriors are a team that haven't had a lot of national TV exposure over the past few years, and I think these players are going to relish the chance to shine on TNT tonight. They will bring an all-out intensity on the defensive end of the floor and keep this score low. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total Dominator on Rockets/Jazz OVER

I think you are going to see a lot of points here tonight when the Utah Jazz host the Houston Rockets. Houston is putting up 104.4 ppg and allowing 102.9. Utah on the other hand is scoring 102.2 ppg at home and giving up 98.7 ppg overall.

The Rockets finally got their mojo back last game against the Brooklyn Nets in a 119-106 win with a posted total of just 200. Even though the Jazz went into overtime Saturday against the Pacers, that final was 114-110 after being tied at 98 after 48 minutes despite a total posted of just 183.

These two teams met back on December 1st and played to a final score of 124-116 and I can see something similar happening here tonight. With the way these two teams played last time out and the short amount of rest not allowing for practice time to shore things up on defense or for the teams to lose their shooting confidence, I'll take the OVER.

The Rockets are 15-7 OVER when playing a team with a winning record this season while Utah is 12-2 OVER revenging a loss where an opponent scored over 100 this year.

4* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Kings UNDER

This is a pretty high number here tonight but I see some value with the UNDER. Oklahoma City has been scoring a lot of points lately, but cooled off a little against Golden State last time out. That loss is important to note because if you look at the teams last three losses, they dial up the defense in the next game. They held the 76ers to 85 points, Wolves to 84, and Clippers to 97 following their last three defeats.

The Kings have had trouble scoring lately. They have scored 97 or less in four of their last five games, and only managed 69 against Memphis last Friday night. I think they will struggle to get points on the board against Oklahoma City again here tonight.

A couple of situations support our play here tonight. One says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 one team is coming off an upset loss while the other is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. This system is 85-52 (62%) for the UNDER since 1996. The other is to take the UNDER when the road team has a winning record and is playing on Friday night. This situation is 110-59 (67.4%) for the UNDER the last five seasons.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Nets UNDER

Two good divisional opponents playing each other on NBA TV today, I think this one has UNDER written all over it. Both teams have played solid defense in the division, the Knicks are allowing a little over 92 ppg while the Nets a little over 94.

Brooklyn has also held four of their last six opponents to under 90 points, while the Knicks have held their last two and three of four under 88. The last time these two teams met they only managed 186 points, so I think you can expect the same kind of result here today.

Play the UNDER when the total is between 190-199.5 when a team is on 2 days rest and coming off a win. This situation is 187-123 the last five seasons. You also want to take the UNDER when a team is playing their 3rd game or less in 10 days when they have a winning record playing a team with a winning record. This system is 105-61 over the last five years.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Raptors UNDER

The LA Lakers are finally at full strength and I think that is going to help them on the defensive end of the floor. This team has held three straight opponents to under 100 points since the return of Dwight Howard, and limited the Bucks to just 35.8% shooting two games ago. The Raptors have been scoring a lot of points, going over in four straight games, but they are only averaging 97.1 ppg on the year and giving up 94.7 ppg at home.

Quite a few systems support our play here today. One says to take the UNDER on Sundays when a team has gone UNDER by 30 or more in their last three games. This system is 128-69 (65%) the last three seasons. Another says to take the UNDER on Sunday when a team hasn't played since Thursday and the total is over 200. This system is 57-24 ATS since 1996. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and that puts both of them into a system that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 and a team attempts more than 18 3's per game. The UNDER is 127-71 the last five seasons when just one of these teams play, and both fit the bill here today.

This is an early start at 1 PM EST and these players aren't used to getting going so early. This might be particularly tough on LA, who is playing in the Eastern Time Zone and essentially starting at 10 AM accruing to their body clocks.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Kings OVER

Two terrible defenses collide on Saturday night and I'm all over the OVER here. The Kings are allowing 103.3 ppg while the Bobcats are giving up 103.5 ppg. Opponents are shooting 45.8% against Sacramento and 46.1% against Charlotte (including 39% from behind the arc).

The Bobcats have and some trouble scoring lately and that had caused the UNDER to hit in four straight games, but they broke out of their fun last night in Orlando to put up 106 points. The Kings had gone OVER in six straight games before siding with the UNDER in their last two, but last night they faced a tough Memphis team so it's easy to see why they struggled to score. That only led to some value here tonight with this total being set lower than it should be.

The Kings are 24-14 OVER in all games this year, but 11-3 OVER when they are playing a team that forces 14 or fewer turnovers per game. A system that supports our play says that when the total is between 200-209.5 take the OVER when the road team has gone over the total by a combined 48 points or more in their previous 10 games. This system is 32-10 over the past five seasons.

4* Total NO BRAINER on Bucks/Lakers UNDER 212.5

The Lakers have had some high totals recently and for good reason as they were both scoring and giving up over 100 points per game. Dwight Howard returned against the Cavs on Sunday though and LA held Cleveland to just 93 points. I think that trend continues here tonight as they have held opponents to just 43.7% shooting at home, including 32.1% from 3-point range.

Milwaukee hasn't scored as well on the road, but interestingly enough they have played better defense than at home, giving up just 95.9 ppg outside of Milwaukee. The Bucks have seen 3 of the four totals go OVER since Skiles was fired, but none of those were set anywhere near as high as tonight's. Lots of value in the UNDER here and I'll take it.

A great system supports our play that says to take the UNDER when one team is off a home blowout win of 20 points or more and their opponent is off a road win of 10 or more. This system has gone 92-46 (66.7%) for the UNDER since 1996. Another situation that applies says to take the UNDER when a team is on the road with a total of 210 or more and they are coming off an upset win as a double digit underdog. These teams are 47-16 (74.6%) for the UNDER since 1996.

5* NBA Total Dominator on Kings/Cavs OVER

Sacramento's defense has been terrible all year long, but the last four games it's been something special. All four opponents have scored 113 or more points against them and this team hasn't let a team score under 94 points since way back on December 8th. It's no surprise that the Kings have gone OVER in five straight and 10 of their last 11 and I don't think they will have a problem eclipsing this number tonight either.

Cleveland isn't a great offensive team, but they have their own struggles on the defensive side of the ball. On the road they are giving up 100.4 ppg on 47.9% shooting against teams scoring just 96.5 on 44.4%.

This team has allowed 97 or more points in eight of their last nine games.

The Kings are 39-21 OVER when the total is between 200-210 the last three seasons and 14-6 OVER at home this year. Sacramento is 23-11 OVER in non-confernece games the last two years and 15-7 OVER after a loss this year. Finally, since 1996 the Kings are 34-18 OVER at home when playing a team with a winning percentage 25% or lower.

All sign point to a lot of scoring tonight, so take the OVER.