3* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Heat/Bulls UNDER

Always play the under when there is an extremely well rested team like Chicago who is winning 51-60% of their games and playing 3 or less games in 10 days and facing a winning team. This system has gone under the total in 30 of the last 41 games during the last five seasons.

Chicago is 8-0 to the under in home games against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game this season. They are also 21-6 favoring the under in games against Southeast division teams over the last two seasons.

The Bulls defense has been remarkable at home holding opponents to 88.9 points per game and only 41.1% shooting. The offense shoots only 42.8% in home games and with those to factors combined all signs point to a low scoring game tonight.

4* TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Thunder UNDER

The value in this game is on the under as the oddsmakers have set this total a little too high. Always play the under when there is an extremely well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days like Houston, and they are winning between 51-60% of their games in a matchup against another winning team. This system is 153-103 ATS for the last five seasons.

Oklahoma City is 19-9 to the under off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons while Houston is 33-14 to the under in home games after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games since 1996. With Houston playing as a well rested team and being on their home court they should be able to control the tempo of this game. The Rockets know if they get into a shootout with the Thunder they will have no chance to win this game. Houston should be able to slow things down at least long enough to make the under the value play in this matchup.

3* Total Dominator on Heat/Hawks UNDER

The under is 18-7 in Miami's last 25 games and 17-6 in Atlanta

3* Total No Brainer Bobcats/Pistons OVER

The Detroit Pistons are 25-13 to the over against teams being outscored by their opponents by 3 or more points per game over the last two seasons. That tightens up to 26-10 to the over when their opponent is outscored by 6 or more points per game. The over is also 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 games against a team with a losing record. It is the same story for Charlotte at 4-0 to the over against teams with a losing record.

The Bobcats and Pistons have gone over the total four of the last five times these teams played in Charlotte. The Bobcats have allowed 102 points per game at home and they have allowed opponents to shoot 38.1% from beyond the three point line. They do not run a tight defense and they give up a lot of easy points. The Piston

3* TOTAL NO BRAINER Chicago/New Orleans UNDER

It is better to play the under in a game involving a team averaging 92-98 points per game like Chicago against an average defensive team allowing 92-98 points per game after 42 or more games and coming off a performance where they allowed 75 points or less. This trend is 93-49 since 1996.

New Orleans plays better on defense when they are facing a team with a winning record on their home court and they are 22-11 to the under in that situation over the last two seasons. The Bulls are a team that gets a lot of their points off of turnovers and New Orleans averages just 13 turnovers per game at home this season.

The Bulls are 60-38 to the under against good ball handling teams like New Orleans in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons and with both teams having some extra rest from the NBA all-star break this game should be a defensive battle.

4* TOTAL DOMINATOR Charlotte/Orlando OVER

This matchup falls into a system to play on the over where the total is between 190-199.5 points in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 45.5-47.5% shooting and two average rebounding teams after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 208-140 since 1996.

This game also falls into a system to play the over when one of the teams is off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival when the opponent is off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points. Both Charlotte and Orlando scored less than 80 points in their last game and suffered embarrassing losses with Charlotte losing to Indiana and Orlando losing to Atlanta. This system is 31-5 ATS since 1996.

The Magic are not a team that gets to the foul line very often and the Bobcats are 13-5 to the over versus teams attempting 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Bobcats average 20 fouls per game on the road so they are obviously giving up a lot of easy baskets. Orlando is 22-11 to the over versus teams who average 21 or less fouls per game this season.

3* on Denver/Cleveland OVER

Can the Nuggets offense be stopped? They have put up 112 or more points in their last four games and haven't scored under 100 since back on January 16th. Surprisingly, the Cavs have turned into an offensive juggernaut lately as well. Cleveland has put up 115 or more points in their last three games. With those kinds of offensive numbers it's no surprise both teams have gone OVER in five straight games.

You want to take the OVER when one team went OVER by 18 in their previous game and they are taking on an opponent that went OVER by 24 in their last game. This situation is 355-241 (59.6%) since 1996. If the total for the current game is over 200 then that number jumped to 147-90 (62%).

This is one of the highest totals set so far this season and when the total is set above 212, the OVER has gone 12-4. Both of these teams give up over 100 ppg and with both offenses clicking, this one should go over easy.

5* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Mavs/Blazers UNDER

We are getting some value in this line tonight because Dallas has been so bad defensively on the year, giving up 103.1 ppg. They just gave up 112 points in a 21 point loss to Oklahoma City, but teams like Dallas normally buckle down on that end of the floor after a bad loss. You want to play on teams that are giving up 103+ ppg on the season after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. These teams go UNDER at a pace of 223-145 (60.6%) since 1996.

Dallas is actually allowing 4 ppg less at home than they do on the road, and their 101 ppg in Dallas is a little inflated from playing the likes of Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver, and Houston in a good portion of those games. Portland isn't going to keep pace with those teams when they only score 94.1 ppg on the road for the season.

These two teams have met twice this season and this is the highest total yet. Last time they faced each other Dallas shot 50% and 53.5% from behind the arc, both teams shot 78.3% or better from the line, and they only managed to score 210 points. In the first meeting Dallas shot 61.5% from the floor and 50% from the 3-point line and scored 114. I don't think you can expect out of this world shooting numbers a third time in a row.

4* on the Kings/Jazz UNDER

This total has been set too high tonight. Sacramento is in a serious offensive funk right now. The Kings have scored 81 points or less in each of their last three games and haven't topped the century mark in seven straight outings.

Utah hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. Utah has scored 100 points or less in five of their last seven and are averaging just 96.6 ppg over their last five.

The UNDER is 11-4 in Utah's last 15 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 12-3 in the Kings last 15 games following a game where they allowed 110 points or more.

4* Blazers/Jazz UNDER

Hard not to like the Jazz and Blazers to go UNDER again tonight with the total just slightly lower than last night's. Portland and Utah played a very low scoring game in which the Jazz won 86-77 on their home floor. Now they travel up to Portland for a quick rubber match, and there isn't time to make offensive adjustments to change anything.

Portland shot just 36.7% from the floor while the Jazz only managed 43.2%. Utah was just 4-for-15 from behind the 3-point arc while the Blazers were 7-for-20. Portland managed just one quarter of more than 20 points, while the Jazz only managed 13 points in the final frame.

With two teams that are fighting for playoff spots against each other, I think the intensity will be there tonight and we are in for another low scoring affair.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER

Minnesota has been playing some high scoring games lately. Both them and their opponents have scored 100+ in three of the last four games, including lats night's 100-111 loss to the LA Lakers. Minnesota is typically a low scoring team, but obviously they are pushing the tempo a little bit here recently. Plus, the Wolves are 13-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record this year.

New Orleans has now allowed 100 or more points in seven of their last eight games after last night's 98-113 loss to Denver. They are 15-7 OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 this season and 12-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record.

These two teams have met twice already this year with final scores of 113-102 and 92-104, both well over today's total. I just can't see these two teams deciding today is the day they want to play defense, so I think you'll see another final score in the 190's or even higher.

A solid system supports our play that says to take the OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 and one tam is off a road loss by 10 points or more and playing their 3rd game in four nights. The OVER is 114-75 (60.3%) in this situation the last five years.

4* on Kings/Knicks UNDER

The Kings are scoring just 91.7 ppg on the road and they actually give up 1.5 ppg less away from home too. The Knicks are a good defensive team that allows just 95.4 ppg at the Garden. Sacramento hasn't scored more than 96 points since back on January 21st and is doing off back-to-back 81 and 80 point performances.

The Knicks stopped the Milwaukee offense dead in it's tracks last night, giving up just 86 points on 39.8% shooting to the Bucks. New York has now held seven of their last eight opponents to 97 or less points.

You want to take the UNDER when the total is between 200-209.5 when a team is revering a loss as a favorite and that team has won 60% or more of their games on the season. The UNDER is 193-128 (60.1%) in this situation since 1996. You also want to take the UNDER in non-conference games when a team went under the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 58-19 (75.3%) the last five years in this situation.

3* on Hornets/Nuggets OVER

There is some solid value with this line here tonight. New Orleans is averaging 93.6 ppg and only giving up 97.4, but if you look at their road splits those numbers jump up to 96.4 and 99.3. Not only that but this team has given up 100 or more points in six of their last seven games.

Now they take on one of the best scoring teams in the league, especially at home where the Nuggets are putting up 108 ppg on 47.5% shooting. Since New Orleans allows 46.7% from the floor that's not good news for them. Denver has scored 102 or more points in six straight games and Indiana was the team they put up 102 against, a lot better defense than they will face tonight. This one is going to be high scoring so take the OVER.

5* NBA Pre-All Star TOTAL of the YEAR on Heat/Pacers UNDER

This should be a defensive battle tonight and I love the UNDER in a big way. Miami is coming off a 105-85 win at Brooklyn while the Pacers are coming off a 98-79 win over Detroit. Both teams played solid defense and I expect that to continue here tonight. Plus, that sets us up for a nice situation where you want to play the UNDER when a team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent of a blowout of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 202-132 (60.5%) in this situation since 1996. Where the total is 180-189.5 and a team that scores 99+ ppg is off a blowout win by 20 or more like Miami is, the UNDER is 105-57 (64.8%) since 1996.

When teams play hard it normally leads to lower scoring games. When do teams play their hardest? Against other good teams and when the national spotlight is on them. Tonight this game will be on ESPN and both teams clock in with good records, Miami is 29-13 and Indiana is 27-19. Both want to make a statement to their opponents. Miami wants to show Indiana they aren't in their league while the Pacers want to prove they are. When you get two good teams playing on Friday nights the UNDER is 149-99 (60.1%) the last five seasons.

The Pacers are allowing teams that score 97.3 ppg to put up only 86.7 ppg against them at home. Indiana is scoring only 91.8 ppg on the year against teams that allow 95 ppg. Miami on the other hand is way better at home than on the road. Away from South Beach this team is scoring 98.6 ppg against opponents scoring 97.7 but they are holding opponents to just under their season average.

These two teams met in Indiana back on January 8th and the final score was 87-77 Indiana. I think the Pacers are going to slow this game way down again, and both teams take defense seriously. Points will be at a premium tonight as this game stays way under the total.

5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Warriors/Mavs UNDER

Dallas has scored 104 or more points in nine straight games now and with Golden State's history of high scoring games we have a lot of value in the UNDER here tonight. Dallas has gone OVER in five straight games while Golden State has gone OVER in four in a row. To see how much padding that gives us here tonight you only have to go back to the last time these two teams met, when the total was set at 200. Six points is quite a jump for a same-season rematch game, and it's too much.

Jackson has instilled a defensive philosophy into his young Warrior team. They are actually holding opponents to just 96.6 ppg at home this year, below their opponents average of 97.8 ppg. They are doing it by holding them to 42.1% from the floor and 30.9% from the 3-point line.

The Warriors are a team that haven't had a lot of national TV exposure over the past few years, and I think these players are going to relish the chance to shine on TNT tonight. They will bring an all-out intensity on the defensive end of the floor and keep this score low. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total Dominator on Rockets/Jazz OVER

I think you are going to see a lot of points here tonight when the Utah Jazz host the Houston Rockets. Houston is putting up 104.4 ppg and allowing 102.9. Utah on the other hand is scoring 102.2 ppg at home and giving up 98.7 ppg overall.

The Rockets finally got their mojo back last game against the Brooklyn Nets in a 119-106 win with a posted total of just 200. Even though the Jazz went into overtime Saturday against the Pacers, that final was 114-110 after being tied at 98 after 48 minutes despite a total posted of just 183.

These two teams met back on December 1st and played to a final score of 124-116 and I can see something similar happening here tonight. With the way these two teams played last time out and the short amount of rest not allowing for practice time to shore things up on defense or for the teams to lose their shooting confidence, I'll take the OVER.

The Rockets are 15-7 OVER when playing a team with a winning record this season while Utah is 12-2 OVER revenging a loss where an opponent scored over 100 this year.

4* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Kings UNDER

This is a pretty high number here tonight but I see some value with the UNDER. Oklahoma City has been scoring a lot of points lately, but cooled off a little against Golden State last time out. That loss is important to note because if you look at the teams last three losses, they dial up the defense in the next game. They held the 76ers to 85 points, Wolves to 84, and Clippers to 97 following their last three defeats.

The Kings have had trouble scoring lately. They have scored 97 or less in four of their last five games, and only managed 69 against Memphis last Friday night. I think they will struggle to get points on the board against Oklahoma City again here tonight.

A couple of situations support our play here tonight. One says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 one team is coming off an upset loss while the other is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. This system is 85-52 (62%) for the UNDER since 1996. The other is to take the UNDER when the road team has a winning record and is playing on Friday night. This situation is 110-59 (67.4%) for the UNDER the last five seasons.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Nets UNDER

Two good divisional opponents playing each other on NBA TV today, I think this one has UNDER written all over it. Both teams have played solid defense in the division, the Knicks are allowing a little over 92 ppg while the Nets a little over 94.

Brooklyn has also held four of their last six opponents to under 90 points, while the Knicks have held their last two and three of four under 88. The last time these two teams met they only managed 186 points, so I think you can expect the same kind of result here today.

Play the UNDER when the total is between 190-199.5 when a team is on 2 days rest and coming off a win. This situation is 187-123 the last five seasons. You also want to take the UNDER when a team is playing their 3rd game or less in 10 days when they have a winning record playing a team with a winning record. This system is 105-61 over the last five years.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Raptors UNDER

The LA Lakers are finally at full strength and I think that is going to help them on the defensive end of the floor. This team has held three straight opponents to under 100 points since the return of Dwight Howard, and limited the Bucks to just 35.8% shooting two games ago. The Raptors have been scoring a lot of points, going over in four straight games, but they are only averaging 97.1 ppg on the year and giving up 94.7 ppg at home.

Quite a few systems support our play here today. One says to take the UNDER on Sundays when a team has gone UNDER by 30 or more in their last three games. This system is 128-69 (65%) the last three seasons. Another says to take the UNDER on Sunday when a team hasn't played since Thursday and the total is over 200. This system is 57-24 ATS since 1996. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and that puts both of them into a system that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 and a team attempts more than 18 3's per game. The UNDER is 127-71 the last five seasons when just one of these teams play, and both fit the bill here today.

This is an early start at 1 PM EST and these players aren't used to getting going so early. This might be particularly tough on LA, who is playing in the Eastern Time Zone and essentially starting at 10 AM accruing to their body clocks.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Kings OVER

Two terrible defenses collide on Saturday night and I'm all over the OVER here. The Kings are allowing 103.3 ppg while the Bobcats are giving up 103.5 ppg. Opponents are shooting 45.8% against Sacramento and 46.1% against Charlotte (including 39% from behind the arc).

The Bobcats have and some trouble scoring lately and that had caused the UNDER to hit in four straight games, but they broke out of their fun last night in Orlando to put up 106 points. The Kings had gone OVER in six straight games before siding with the UNDER in their last two, but last night they faced a tough Memphis team so it's easy to see why they struggled to score. That only led to some value here tonight with this total being set lower than it should be.

The Kings are 24-14 OVER in all games this year, but 11-3 OVER when they are playing a team that forces 14 or fewer turnovers per game. A system that supports our play says that when the total is between 200-209.5 take the OVER when the road team has gone over the total by a combined 48 points or more in their previous 10 games. This system is 32-10 over the past five seasons.

4* Total NO BRAINER on Bucks/Lakers UNDER 212.5

The Lakers have had some high totals recently and for good reason as they were both scoring and giving up over 100 points per game. Dwight Howard returned against the Cavs on Sunday though and LA held Cleveland to just 93 points. I think that trend continues here tonight as they have held opponents to just 43.7% shooting at home, including 32.1% from 3-point range.

Milwaukee hasn't scored as well on the road, but interestingly enough they have played better defense than at home, giving up just 95.9 ppg outside of Milwaukee. The Bucks have seen 3 of the four totals go OVER since Skiles was fired, but none of those were set anywhere near as high as tonight's. Lots of value in the UNDER here and I'll take it.

A great system supports our play that says to take the UNDER when one team is off a home blowout win of 20 points or more and their opponent is off a road win of 10 or more. This system has gone 92-46 (66.7%) for the UNDER since 1996. Another situation that applies says to take the UNDER when a team is on the road with a total of 210 or more and they are coming off an upset win as a double digit underdog. These teams are 47-16 (74.6%) for the UNDER since 1996.

5* NBA Total Dominator on Kings/Cavs OVER

Sacramento's defense has been terrible all year long, but the last four games it's been something special. All four opponents have scored 113 or more points against them and this team hasn't let a team score under 94 points since way back on December 8th. It's no surprise that the Kings have gone OVER in five straight and 10 of their last 11 and I don't think they will have a problem eclipsing this number tonight either.

Cleveland isn't a great offensive team, but they have their own struggles on the defensive side of the ball. On the road they are giving up 100.4 ppg on 47.9% shooting against teams scoring just 96.5 on 44.4%.

This team has allowed 97 or more points in eight of their last nine games.

The Kings are 39-21 OVER when the total is between 200-210 the last three seasons and 14-6 OVER at home this year. Sacramento is 23-11 OVER in non-confernece games the last two years and 15-7 OVER after a loss this year. Finally, since 1996 the Kings are 34-18 OVER at home when playing a team with a winning percentage 25% or lower.

All sign point to a lot of scoring tonight, so take the OVER.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER

This is a big game for both teams as Portland is trying to establish themselves as a legitimate playoff contender after winning four of their last five and six of their last eight. Now they host a division rival that is the best team in the West.

Oklahoma City hasn't been a slouch on the road, but their shooting dips from 47.9% at home to 46.3% on the road, but behind the arc it goes from 39.6% down to 34.2%. Portland is a team that allows only 31.2% 3-point shooting at home, so the Thunder are not going to be able to get as many trips where they get three points instead of two here today.

Earlier this year the odds makers set a total for 205 in Oklahoma City and the two teams played to 198 points. Now they have dropped the number quite a bit and I still don't think it's enough.

A couple of systems that support our pick say to play the UNDER in divisional games when the total is between 190 and 200 when one team is off two straight covers as a favorite. This system is 50-21 (70.4%) the last five seasons. Another one is to play the UNDER with any team that outscores their opponents by 9+ ppg when hey are coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more. This situation is 70-41 (63.1%) for the UNDER the last five years.

4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Pacers UNDER

What we have here is a Charlotte team that is scoring just 93 ppg on the road and a Pacers team allowing 86.6 ppg at home. I'm having trouble discerning just where the Bobcats are going to get their points from as their 42.4% shooting takes on a defense that allows 40.3% on their home floor. Plus, on no rest they won't have time to make any adjustments from their 78 point showing last night in Toronto.

Indiana's defense has been downright sick, allowing 83 points or less in five of their last six, including holding Miami to 77 and New York to 76. Those are two teams that put up their share of points, and not even they could score against the Pacers.

Charlotte is so bad because their defense is terrible, particularly against the 3-point shot. The good news is that Indiana doesn't shoot a lot of outside shots so will get the majority of their points two at a time. The Pacers have scored less than 90 points in five of their last six games.

Indiana is 13-3 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or less their last four games since 1996 and the Pacers are 34-20 UNDER against teams allowing their opponents to make more than 46% of their shots the last three years. Another system supporting our play says to take the UNDER when you have a team allowing 103+ ppg after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 220-143 (60.6%) in this situation dating back to 1996.

3* NBA Total Dominator Clippers/Magic UNDER

Orlando has been playing some high scoring games, but that should come to an end here this afternoon. Both of these teams had two days rest which means plenty of time to refresh the tired legs, plus to get some practice in to shore up any problems on the defensive side of the ball.

You know the Magic have been working on defense too, they have allowed their last nine opponents to score 96 points or more and six of their last seven have put up 105 or more. However, on the season they are only averaging 94.8 ppg so they aren't going to stop their losing streak if they don't get some stops.

The Clippers are getting a reputation as a high scoring team, yet are only putting up 101.8 ppg. What they are doing is play solid defense in allowing opponents to score only 93.1 ppg, and that number drops to 91.7 ppg at home. This game has blowout written all over it, and when a team has a large lead they eat up the clock late. Couple that with the fact this game starts at 3:30 EST and a little after noon in Pacific time where the game will be played, and I'm seeing a lazy start. NBA players aren't used to starting their work days so early.

3* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER

This is a low total for a San Antonio team that is averaging 105 ppg, but they haven't been as explosive here lately. The Spurs put up only 88 points at New Orleans and 83 points at New York in their last two road games and have now played UNDER the total in four straight games and six of their last seven.

Memphis has also played UNDER the total in six of their last seven games and they are doing it by continuing to play suffocating defense. During that stretch no team has scored more than 88 points against them and the only OVER was when the Grizzlies threw up 113 against a bad Kings teams. Memphis is only allowing 86.7 ppg at home this year so it isn't just a recent trend either.

Expect some playoff intensity tonight between these two teams as they are tied in the loss column with 10 losses each. They are battling it out for the Southwest Division title so I expect both teams to dial up the defensive intensity as this one goes UNDER easily.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Rockets/Celtics UNDER

These two teams met earlier this season in Houston and played to a final score of 101-89 and I expect another low scoring affair here tonight.

Is it any surprise Boston has upped the defensive intensity over the last five games? Their defensive stopper, Avery Bradley, finally returned from injury and the whole team seems to be rejuvenated. The Celtics have won four in a row and are doing it with defense. Boston has allowed 75, 81, 96, and 79 in those four games and no opponent has shot better than 41.2%.

Houston on the other hand, did not start their three game road trip as planned, losing in New Orleans by a final score of 79-88. The Hornets have been playing better defensively lately, but Boston is better on that end with Bradley than nearly every team in the league.

Solid system backs our play that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 in non-conference games and one of the teams went UNDER by more than 24 points last game. This system is 51-18 for the UNDER the last five seasons. Plus, when two teams with a winning record face each other on Friday nights and the total is over 200, the UNDER has gone 90-50 over the past five years.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Bulls/Bucks UNDER

Milwaukee fired coach Scott Skiles and then went out and scored 108 points against the Phoenix Suns last night, so some might think a change of philosophy sparked the offense. In reality it was more just hot shooting as the team shot 9-of-17 from behind the 3-point line. Obviously they can't keep up that pace no matter who is coaching.

The Bulls recent win was a 118-92 spanking of Cleveland that was uncharacteristically high scoring for them. Instead their previous four games they didn't allow their opponent to score more than 94 points, while not scoring more than 96 themselves. On their home floor Chicago is allowing just 89.8 ppg and 42.5% shooting.

The two games these two teams have played this year have both gone UNDER the number. Both games were played back in November with final scores of 93-92 and 93-86. Chicago will want to revenge that home loss on 11/26 and to do that they know defense is their best way to do that. Look for a slow pace game controlled by the Bulls for an easy UNDER here tonight.

3* TOTAL DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hawks OVER

When these two teams meet up it seems like there are a lot of points that get put up on the board. The Cavs and Hawks have played OVER the number in five straight in this series dating back to the beginning of last year. The Hawks won back on 12/28 102-94 in Cleveland, while in Nov. the Cavs went into Atlanta to win 113-111. Last year the two teams put up 205, 190, and 215 points in their three meetings.

Both of these teams are coming off games in which they sailed over the total as well. The Cavs have actually gone over in three straight with totals of 210, 216, and 210 points. Atlanta had played three straight low scoring games before going to Minnesota last night for a 103-108 finale.

Both of these teams are on short rest so it's not like they will have made any adjustments on defense to shore up their holes, and their offensive outburst should have given the shooters plenty of confidence. I like this one to go over again here tonight.

4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Indiana is a team that prefers to slow things down and win with their defense, and I think being the home team they control the pace here tonight. Indiana is only scoring 91.4 ppg against teams allowing 97.9 and giving up 89.8 ppg against teams who score 96.6. They do a great job of shutting down the outside shot, allowing opponents to only shoot 31.2% from behind the arc.

Miami has gone UNDER in two straight games and looked especially tough against Washington on Sunday, allowing the Wizards to score just 71 points on 35.8% shooting. Indiana has gone UNDER in four straight and six of their last seven . They have struggled offensively but shut down opposing shooters.

These two teams met last year in the playoffs and saw their totals around 180. This one is six points higher and I feel like that leads to a good chance the UNDER hits tonight.

Play the UNDER when a team is coming off a win by 15 points or more against an opponent coming off a win by 20 or more. This system is 201-132 (60.4%) dating back to 1996. The Pacers are 40-24 for the UNDER against teams who make 46% or more of their shots the last three years while Miami is 12-1 UNDER off a home win against a divisional rival the last three years.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Nets/Sixers UNDER

Two teams that know each other well face off tonight and I think points will be at a premium. The two teams met back on 12/23 with the Nets winning 95-92, just slipping under the total of 187.5. That made the UNDER 8-5 now when these two teams have met dating back to the 2009-10 season. When you play each other as many times a year as these two do, you have a pretty good idea of what your opponents likes to do and it's easier to stop.

The Sixers have been having problems putting points on the board anyway. Philadelphia has scored more than 89 points just once in their last six games so it's no surprise this team has gone UNDER in five of their last six and seven of their last nine. Brooklyn has been putting up points lately which has inflated this total a little bit, but the value is with the UNDER.

Brooklyn is 13-4 UNDER against teams who turn the ball over 14 times or less this year and they are 21-7 UNDER against teams who make six or more 3's per game the last two years. The Nets are 15-5 UNDER when playing on two days rest the last three years and 19-6 UNDER on the road after an over the last two years.

4* Total Dominator on Pistons/Bobcats OVER 193.5

Charlotte is a bad defensive team and Detroit should be able to take advantage of that here today. The Bobcats are giving up 105.7 ppg on the road to teams that are scoring just 97.1 ppg and 17 of their last 18 opponents have score 97 or more points against them.

Detroit had been scoring a decent amount of points lately, putting up 96 or more in six straight before beating Atlanta 85-84 Friday night. At home they have been shooting 46.7% on the year and 39.5% from behind the arc. That should bode well for them as Charlotte is giving up 40.7% from 3-point range away from home. The Pistons are 25-10 for the OVER against bad teams who are outscored by 6+ ppg on the year and 10-1 for the OVER at home after allowing 85 or less the last three seasons.

The last three match ups between these two teams have gone OVER by scores of 109-85, 110-107 and 109-94. All signs point to a lot of points here on Sunday.

3* Total Dominator on Nets/Kings UNDER 195.5

Both of these teams are coming off back-to-backs but the Brooklyn Nets are in a unique situation of playing on no rest after a double overtime thriller last night against the Washington Wizards. I think that means you'll be seeing this team slow it up a little more as they won't have the energy to push the pace.

That's good news for a Kings team that is giving up 101.6 ppg on the year and only scoring 96.8. Brooklyn doesn't score a lot anyway, putting up only 94.7 on the year against teams allowing 97.6. The Nets are a strong defensive team allowing 94.4 ppg against teams who score 98.2.

The recent high scoring streak for Sacramento has given us a few points of value here. These two teams met earlier in the year for a 99-90 final with a total of 192.5. Now the total is four points higher and the Nets are tired and will slow the pace. Roll the UNDER with confidence.

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bucks/Pacers UNDER 185.5

These two teams have played twice already this year and have played some pretty low scoring games. Back on 11/14 the bucks won 99-85, staying under the 189.5 point total then on 12/18 the teams went over the 185 point total by a few points with their 98-93 final.

Since that game this Pacers team has been playing some pretty low scoring games, allowing just one opponents since to score more than 91 points. Milwaukee has been playing some high scoring games against high scoring teams, but that has only worked in our favor to create value now that they are playing a slower pace team.

Indiana is allowing only 88.6 ppg at home to teams scoring 96.7 ppg and they are only scoring 91.7 ppg against teams that allow 97.8. Both of these teams are going to be fighting for a playoff spot this year so divisional games like this mean playoff like intensity even in early January.

I know both teams are off back-to-backs, but each game in with plenty of rest before that. Indiana had five days off over Christmas and the Bucks played only once between 12/22 and 12/29 so I don't think either will have tired legs. This one is a defensive battle and stays UNDER.

3* Total Dominator on Heat/Bulls UNDER 191.5

Two good teams playing on ESPN tonight and you can expect both of them to bring the intensity to the defensive side of the floor. Even though these two teams play contrasting styles I think Chicago will try to slow the Heat down as the Bulls are 31-18 UNDER when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons.

Miami shoots a lot of three pointers and does a good job of knocking them down, but the Bulls are 14-4 for the UNDER against teams who shoot 18 or more 3's per game this year. Miami's 103.6 ppg is one of the highest in the league but the Bulls are 15-5 UNDER against teams who average 103+ ppg the last three years.

The last two times these two teams met the total went under 183.5 and 185 by final scores of 83-72 and 86-96. These two have a history of tough games that are low scoring and I don't see why that doesn't continue here tonight.

5* NBA Total No Brainer on Hawks/Rockets OVER 206.5

The way these two teams are playing right now the OVER makes a lot of sense to me. The Rockets and Hawks met way back on 11/2 in Atlanta and Houston won that game 109-102, so they've already played a high scoring game once this season.

Houston has been an OVER lover's dream lately. Only once in their last six games have either the Rockets or their opponent failed to reach 120 points in a game. It's no surprise that every one of those games went over the total. The only game that failed to reach that mark was Minnesota on 12/26 which was a letdown spot after a big win in Chicago.

The Hawks have been putting up some points too. Atlanta has gone OVER in three straight games and has eclipsed the 100 point barrier in each, they also have allowed 100 points in two of those three games.

Both of these teams like to shoot the 3-ball and both are better at hitting the outside shot than they are at defending it. A lot of factors pointing towards the OVER tonight so I'll ride it.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Clippers/Jazz OVER 195.5

These two teams played a 116-114 game on Friday night and I expect there to be a lot of scoring again on Sunday. In fact, if you look at the previous game the two played back on 12/3 that final was 105-104 as well, but last year the Jazz and the Clippers scoring 201 and 212 in their final two meetings. When these two franchises have squared off recently, a lot of points have been put up.

The Clippers have been putting up a lot of points recently, reaching the 100 point barrier in four straight games. They are averaging 104.1 ppg at home this season while the Jazz are giving up 102 ppg on the road. Utah hasn't given up less than 90 points since back on 12/5, a span of 11 games so with LA's prolific offense I don't see them having much trouble reaching the 100 point barrier.

The Jazz are 63-36 for the OVER on the road after scoring 110 points or more in their previous game and 52-34 OVER when the total is between 190 and 200 the past three years.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Rockets/Spurs Under 214
The Rockets and Spurs combined for 260 points the last time they met. However, they hadn't combined to score more than 207 points in any of the previous five matchups. With this in mind, I'll gladly take the Under.

The Spurs have finished under the total in six of their last eight games, and the Rockets have played to the under in five of their last eight. The Spurs have come in under the number in four of their last five at home, and the Rockets have finished below the number in four of their last five on the road.

Looking back even further into the history of this matchup, we find that the Under is 29-14 in the last 43 meetings and 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in San Antonio.

When these two met Dec. 10, they combined for 30 three-point makes that totaled 90 points. They only average a total of 19 three-point makes so we should see 33 less points scored if these teams hit their averages. Plus, we must factor in that the previous meeting went into OT and that 20 points were scored in the extra frame. With this in mind, we should see right around 207 total points scored in this one. Bet the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Nets Under 188.5
The earliest Christmas day game has gone under the total every year going back to 2004. Apparently, these guys don't like getting up early. I expect this trend to continue.

The last meeting between these teams went under as just 178 total points were scored. This one has the potential to be even lower scoring. The Celtics have allowed the Nets to score 102 and 95 points, respectively, in each of the season's first two meetings. The defensive effort in those games can't be sitting well with a Boston squad that has prided itself on defense under the watch of Doc Rivers. I'm expecting a much better defensive showing from the C's this time around.

The Nets, which rank sixth in the NBA with 93.9 points allowed per game, have been getting it done on the defensive end all season. I expect no different in this one.

The Nets have finished under the total in each of their last four games. Also, the under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two.

Boston has gone over the total in its last three but is 14-4 under in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. We have seen only 178.4 total points scored on average in this situation. Take the Under.

3* TOTAL DOMINATOR on the Rockets/Raptors UNDER 198.5

This line is a little inflated due to the high number of points Houston games have been played towards this year, but the last two times out Houston gave up 93 & 89 points while scoring 101 or less.



Toronto on the other hand has gone UNDER in four straight games by playing decent defense and not putting points on the board offensively. They have scored 100 or fewer in six straight games while have allowed 94 or less in their last three.



I think the players in the NBA struggle a little more with the early start times. When you are used to playing late at night each game and have to get started at Noon, it's going to take a little while to shake off the cobwebs. Both these teams struggle to do that on Sunday and it leads to a low scoring game for us.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Bobcats/Hawks Over 194
Oddsmakers are begging for the money to roll in on the under but we won't oblige them. The Bobcats and Hawks both finished under the number in their games last night with 194 and 166 total points scored, respectively. Also, these two have been under this number in each of the season's previous two meetings with 192 and 185 total points scored, respectively. Yet, the books have come in with a total higher than we've seen these two put up this season? They clearly think this is going to be a high-scoring game, and I agree fully.

When teams play the second game of a back-to-back, it is typically the defense that suffers. It is always easier to find energy when trying to score than it is at the defensive end. That's a big reason why the over is 5-1 in the Bobcats' last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

Prior to this season's two meetings, we had seen the Bobcats and the Hawks combine to score more than 194 points in three straight games. It is also worth noting that the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Plus, the over is 5-1 in the Hawks' last 6 home games. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat Under 181
Three of the first four games in this series have finished under the number, and I expect this trend to continue tonight.

With both teams looking to take control of the series, I expect the effort and intensity on the defensive end to be at its highest level of the series.

Miami is an elite defensive team, especially at home where it has played to the under in 26 of 38 games this season. At the end of regulation, these two teams have totaled just 181 points or less in each of their last 3 games in Miami. We saw just 170 and 153 total points scored at the end of regulation in 2 of those games.

The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 4-0 in its last 4 games following an ATS win and 9-0 in its last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, the Under is 5-0 in Indiana's last 5 games when it has had a day to rest and prepare.

In addition, plays "Under" on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied are 42-10 the last 5 seasons, 22-6 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 6-0 this season. We'll take the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/76ers Under 174
After allowing Boston to shoot 51.9% from the field in Game 3, we can count on the 76ers to turn up the heat on the defensive end tonight.

Boston always seems to bring it's "D". It should have continued success on the defensive end against a 76ers squad that struggles to score in the half court.

There are more than a few trends in our favor here. Philly is 11-3 Under in home games after one or more consecutive overs this season. It is also 12-3 Under in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent this season and 10-1 Under in home games after a game in which it forced 8 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Under is 4-1 in the 76ers' last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home, 26-10 in their last 36 games as a home favorite and 18-6 in their last 24 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

The Under is 4-1 in the Celtics' last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points and 8-2 in their last 10 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.

198 total points were scored in Game 3 and odds makers have come back with a line over 20 points lower. They clearly want the money on the Over as they are clearly expecting a defensive battle. We'll bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Heat/Pacers Over 181.5
After going under the number in a pair of defensive battles to start the series, expect the Heat and Pacers to have more success on the offensive end tonight.

Right away I love the fact that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Indiana in this case) that have scored 90 points or less in 2 straight games and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a game with combined score of 175 points or less are 52-30 the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average of 187.3 total points scored in this situation.

In addition, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Heat's last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, 18-8-1 in the Pacers' last 27 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less, 7-2 in the Pacers' last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 9-4 in the Pacers' last 13 games as a home underdog.

The Heat are 1-for-22 from 3-point range in this series and the Pacers are 7-for-32. We're talking about a pair of teams that average 6 3-point makes a game and shoot them at better than a 35% clip. Expect the shots to start falling tonight and for this one to find its way over the number as a result.

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on 76ers/Celtics Under 174
These 2 combined for 183 points in Game 1 but neither played as well as they are capable of defensively. Philly had shot worse than 40% from the field in 7 of its previous 8 games before Boston allowed it to shoot 43.9%. Also, Philly has held the Bulls below 41.5% shooting in its previous 4 games before it allowed Boston to shoot 43.9%.

Boston ranked No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed per game and No. 1 in field goal percentage defense. Philly ranks 3rd in the NBA in both of those categories. We're talking about a pair of teams that can really tighten the screws on the defensive end. With Philly hungry to steal away Boston's home-court advantage, and with Boston hungry to make quick work of the 76ers in this series, I'm expecting electric defensive efforts from both sides in Game 2.

The Under is 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 playoff games as a favorite and 20-8 in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Under is 4-1 in the 76ers' last 5 overall and 26-10 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Grizzlies/Clippers Under 187
Right away I like the under here considering plays under on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied, provided we have a team with a winning record playing another winning team, are 32-8 (80%) the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 185.1 points in these games and an average combined score of only 180.8.

After a pair of uncharacteristic defensive efforts from a Memphis squad that is among the best defensive teams in the league, I'm expecting the screws to be tightened here. The Clippers are 11-0 under in home games the last 3 seasons versus good pressure defensive teams that force 16 turnovers per game or more.

The under is 8-1 in the Grizzlies' last 9 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in L.A.

It is also worth noting that the Clippers are a much better defensive team at home. With each of these teams looking for the upper hand in the series, I'm expecting a very intense defensive battle today. We'll bet the under.

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Clippers/Grizzlies Under 185.5
After blowing a 27-point lead by giving up 35 fourth-quarter points in Game 1, I expect an inspired defensive effort from one of the best defensive teams in the league tonight. The score should come in under this number as a result.

The under is 14-6 in the Grizzlies' last 20 overall, 21-8 in their last 29 games following a loss and 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Also, Memphis is 19-7 under when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season and 9-1 under off an upset loss this season. As you can see by these trends, Memphis responds following losses by tightening the screws on the defensive end. Plus, it will be very fresh having not played since Sunday.

In addition, plays under on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a game involving two teams that allow 92-98 ppg and following a win by 3 points or less are 31-12 the last 5 seasons. We've only seen an average of 181.1 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Nuggets Under 203.5
A much better defensive effort from the Magic will keep this one under the number.

After giving up triple-digits for a third straight game, coach Van Gundy has called out his team. "We just cannot guard," Van Gundy said. "I don't think it is that our guys are not trying, I don't know what it is, but we cannot guard anyone. We can't guard anyone ... Our defense is disturbing to say the least."

Orlando is a perfect 9-0 under dating back to the start of last season after allowing 110 points or more in its last game. We have seen just 185.5 total points scored in this situation.

In addition, the under is 8-3 in the Magic's last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 7-2 in the Nuggets' last 9 games as a favorite. The under is also 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.

4* NBA Total of the Week on Nets/Pistons Under 188.5
We saw just 191 total points scored when these two faced off Wednesday and Detroit shot a season-high 53.4 percent - just the 3rd time all season it's made 50% or more of its shots in a game. I don't see shots falling as easily for Detroit tonight as New Jersey really tightens the screws defensively, and this one should find its way under the number as a result.

We also find that New Jersey made 10 3-pointers Wednesday, so you can bet the Pistons will be looking to do a better job of defending the 3-point line.

The Under is 5-0 in the Nets' last 5 road games vs. all teams with a losing home record. With odds makers listing the total lower than what these teams just scored, they are clearly begging for action on the over. We won't bite. Take the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Raptors/Nuggets Under 199
Denver is the highest scoring team in the NBA but it won't be the same high-octane team with without point guard Ty Lawson, who is expected to miss with an ankle injury. The Nuggets won't get as much in transition without their tempo-pusher.

Toronto is among the lowest scoring teams in the league, and it will especially have difficulty piling up points tonight with leading scorer Andrea Bargnani expected to miss with a calf injury.

Plays Under on all teams (Denver in this case) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points that have gone over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, with a winning record on the season, are 45-19 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 189.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system is 7-2 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Under is 16-7-1 in the Raptors' last 24 overall and 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Under is also 5-1 in the Nuggets' last 6 games as a home favorite. Take the Under.

5* Game 3 "Total" Dominator (ESPN) on Mavericks/Thunder UNDER 201
Neither team played particularly well on the defensive end in Games 1 and 2, but I expect that to change tonight. With each team looking to take control of the series, we should see more intensity and more heart on the defensive end this evening.

Consider that plays Under when the total is 200 to 209.5 on all teams looking to avenge a home loss to an opponent, good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 70-32 the last 5 seasons.

In addition, the Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks' last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Under is also 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City. Take the Under.

5* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Bulls Under 181
After giving up 100 points on nearly 50% shooting in Game 4, expect the best defensive team in the league to tighten the screws in Game 5. The total score should easily find its way Under the number as a result.

After giving up 103 points in Game 1, the Bulls dug in and only allowed Atlanta to score 73 points on 33.8% shooting in Game 2. We saw just 159 total points scored in that contest and I'm expecting another low-scoring one here.

Consider that Chicago is a perfect 7-0 Under this season when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent of 10 points or more.

In addition, the Under is 5-0 in the Hawks' last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Under.

5* 2011 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 200.5
After back-to-back high-scoring games in this series, expect both teams to make the proper adjustments at the defensive end to ensure a lower scoring affair.

It bodes extremely well for us that plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, are 42-14 the last 5 seasons.

Despite a slower pace in Game 2, we saw the total score go over the number because of Oklahoma City's hot shooting. The Thunder were 8 of 14 from 3-point range. This is significant because OKC is 10-1 Under in road games after a game where it made 50% of it 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 184.1 total points scored in this situation.

The Under is 7-3-1 in the Thunder's last 11 road games and 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Under is also 9-3 in the Grizzlies' last 12 games as a favorite.

This game will be a lot more intense than the 2 we saw in OKC as each team tries to take control of the series. That intensity will especially show up on the defensive end. Take the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Bulls UNDER 180
Chicago ranked No. 1 in the NBA in field goal percentage defense and 3-point field goal percentage defense during the regular season. It also ranked No. 2 in points allowed. After allowing Atlanta to score 103 points on 51.3% shooting in Game 1 (53.8% from 3-point range), expect the Bulls to really tighten the screws on the defensive end tonight.

Prior to Game 1, Atlanta had played to the Under in 5 straight games, 8 of its last 9 and 13 of its last 16. Not more than 177 total points were scored in those 5 consecutive Unders and I expect this trend to continue here.

It is also worth noting that the Bulls have played to the Under in 8 of their last 12.

Getting more in depth, we find that plays Under on all teams (Chicago in this case) when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (where this one is at most books) - hot team having won 6 or 7 of its last 8 games, good team winning 60-75% or more of its games on the season, are 44-19 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 171.7 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 197.5

Zach Randolph was 12 of 22 in Game 1 and 8 of his makes were from at least 10 feet away from the basket. Marc Gasol was 9 of 11 from the field and was 4 of 4 on jumpers from at least 14 feet. I just don't see either player shooting as well tonight, especially with OKC clamping down on the defensive end.

The Grizzlies also got 23 points off of 18 Thunder turnovers in Game 1. And they scored 22 second-chance points off 17 offensive boards. Taking care of the basketball and doing a better job of blocking out will easily shave points off the total score this evening.

Since coach Brooks has been at the controls, OKC is 19-8 Under in home games when out to avenge a double-digit defeat to an opponent. We have seen just 195.2 total points scored on average in this situation. In other words, Brooks has done a great job of making defensive adjustments.

With better effort and a few minor adjustments, this one should finish well under the number tonight.

3* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Heat UNDER 182.5
3 of the season's 5 meetings between these teams have come in under this number and I expect another low-scoring affair tonight.

Boston allowed Miami to shoot over 47% from the field in Game 1 and knows it must tighten the screws in order to get Game 2. Plus, Boston and Miami combined to make 21 3-point shots in Game 1 and we only saw a total of 189 points scored. With the pace still slow and both defenses defending the 3-point line better, we should see this one come in under the number.

The Under is 14-2 in the Celtics' last 16 games playing on 1 day of rest, 11-4-1 in their last 16 road games and 7-1-1 in the Heat's last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Under.

4* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Pacers/Bulls OVER 186
Following 3 straight defensive battles which have catered to the Under, expect the offenses to take center stage to push this one Over the total.

The Over is actually 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Chicago. In fact, we have seen an average of 197.5 total points scored in the 8 games played between these teams in Chicago the last 3 seasons.

Going further inside the numbers, we find that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Chicago) - well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, and a top-level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better, playing a team with a losing record - are 51-21 since 1996. This system is 12-4 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 2-0 this season. Teams fitting into this situation have faced an average total of 185.7 but have combined with their opponents to score a total of 192.2 points on average. Take the Over.

3* NBA Playoff "Total" SMASH on Hawks/Magic OVER 177.5
We saw 173 total points scored in Game 4 despite Orlando shooting 39.2% from the field. This figure included a 2 of 23 (8.7%) performance from the 3-point line. It is also worth noting that Atlanta only made 60% of its free throw attempts in Game 4 (12 of 20). Expect a few more 3's to fall for Orlando at home and a few more free throws to go down for Atlanta to push this one Over the number.

Going to the numbers we find that plays Over on all teams (Atlanta) when the total is 179.5 or less in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG allowed) after 42+ games, and after allowing 85 points or less, are 35-8 (81.4%) since 1996. We have seen an average posted total of 177 in these games and teams have combined to score an average of 187.2 total points. Bet the Over.

4* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Nuggets OVER 204.5
Down 0-3, the Nuggets have nothing to lose and that makes them a potentially dangerous team tonight. Playing at home and looking to save a little face, I expect a great effort from Denver. I also expect the Nuggets to play a little looser, which bodes well for the Over.

Both teams shot under 38% from the field in Game 3 and the Nuggets were just 30 of 45 from the free throw line. Rest assured, both teams will shoot better tonight.

On the season, Denver is 15-4 Over in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots per game. We have seen an average of 224.4 total points scored in these contests.

It also can't be overlooked that Denver is 10-1 to the Over under coach Karl after 2 straight games in which its opponent grabbed 60 or more rebounds. We are seeing an average of 216.0 points scored in these contests. There's something about getting dominated on the boards that makes teams play harder and better.

It is also significant that Denver has been made the favorite, considering the Over is 5-1 in its last 6 playoff games as a favorite. Pound the Over.

3* NBA Playoff Over/Under Winner on Spurs/Grizzlies OVER 188
Back-to-back Unders in this series have dropped the number down and now the Over is showing solid value.

The Spurs will look to push the ball more tonight and they will also look to take the ball to the basket. Memphis has been guarding the 3-point line, as you might expect when matched up against the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA, and the Spurs need to adjust. More drives means more free throws and free throws mean points with the clocked stopped, which is very conducive to the Over.

4* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Bulls/Pacers OVER 187.5
We saw 172 total points scored in Game 3, but the Bulls and Pacers shot 38.9% and 37.9% respectively. We'll see much better shooting in this one.

Indiana knows it must play fast to have a shot, and down 0-3, it can play free and loose. The Pacers know they're not going to win this series but they want to steal a game very badly.

Also, the Bulls fit into a very lucrative "over the total" system. Consider that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, coming off a road win against a division rival and well rested team (playing only their 2nd game in 5 days) are 85-34 since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have faced an average total of 185.1 and have combined with their opponent to score an average of 193.4 points. This system is 6-1 this season.

The Over is 6-1 in the Pacers' last 7 games as a home underdog and 15-5-1 in their last 21 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Over.

4* NBA "Total" Dominator on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 216
The Knicks have been well Over this number in their last 3. Also, the last 2 meetings in this series have gone well Over this number. Despite these things, odds makers have set the line at just 216. I smell something fishy.

NY has lost 11 straight games to the Cavs, including each of the season's first 3 meetings with the league's worst team. That is not sitting well and the Knicks know the only way to do something about it is to "D" up. I'm confident the "D" finally shows up against a Cavs' squad averaging just 94.1 ppg on the road. Cleveland has been held below the century mark in 12 of its last 14 games.

The Under is 9-2 in the Cavaliers' last 11 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. We'll bet the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Game of the Week on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 211.5
The Warriors and Grizzlies have combined for at least 213 points in each of their last 8 meetings and yet the books opened with an over/under line of 210. In addition, Golden State has been Over this number in each of its last 4 games and Memphis was Over it in its last game. I smell a rat.

Naturally, the public is all over the Over, which is precisely where the books want it. I won't hesitate to go against the grain, avoiding what is certainly a bookmaker trap.

Golden State has the perception of a high-scoring team, but it hasn't been nearly as good offensively on the road. As a result, the Warriors are 24-14 Under in road games this season. They are also 37-23 Under in a road game when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.

It is also to our benefit that the Warriors are coming off a tiring overtime game last night. That's because the Under is 5-1 in the Warriors' last 6 games when playing without a day of rest. Also, the Under is 16-3 when the Warriors are playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons.

Also, Memphis has held 4 of its last 5 foes under the century mark. It has also held its opponents to an average of 87.3 points in its last 4 home games. With 2 full days of rest to gear up for this one, I expect the Grizzlies to be very successful on the defensive end against a tired Warriors squad. We'll pound the Under tonight.

4* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Pacers OVER 188
The Indiana Pacers will have an excellent chance to win this game because they should be able to dictate the tempo, which should result in this one going over the number.

Motivated by back-to-back poor offensive performances, and a trio of poor offensive showings against Boston this season, expect Indiana to really look to push the pace early in this one. Plus, Boston just played yesterday, so it will have a much more difficult time staying in front of the fresher Pacers.

Going to the numbers we find that Boston is 13-2 Over off a road no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. We are seeing an average of 200.8 total points scored in this situation. Bean Town is also 17-5 Over in its last 22 road games after allowing 85 points or less in 2 straight games. We are seeing an average of 196.6 total points scored in these spots.

It is also worth noting that the Over is 5-0 in the Pacers' last 5 games as a home underdog, 6-1 in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the Over tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/Wizards OVER 211
After struggling offensively the past couple games, the Wizards should have no trouble scoring on the Warriors tonight. The Warriors are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing 107.3 ppg on the road. In addition, fatigued legs are not conducive to playing good defense, and the Warriors will be fatigued having just played last night.

We all know what Golden State is capable offensively, and it shouldn't have any trouble scoring the ball against a Wizards squad that has allowed an average of 110.0 ppg over their last 8 games.

The Over is 5-0 in the Warriors' last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Over is 4-0 in the Wizards' last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Over.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Bobcats/Bulls UNDER 185
These teams combined for 187 points when they met in Charlotte last Wednesday. The Bulls allowed 96 points in a losing effort but we can expect a much better defensive performance on their home floor tonight. Chicago is only allowing 91.0 ppg at home this season and Charlotte is only scoring 90.4 ppg on the road.

One thing the Bulls have done in revenge games is picked up their defensive intensity. In fact, Chicago is 11-1 Under this season when revenging a road loss to an opponents. The Bulls have held the opposition to just 87.5 points on average in this situation. We have only seen a total of 180.4 points scored on average in these games.

It is also worth noting that the Under is 15-4-2 in the Bobcats' last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, including 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Bet the Under.

4* NBA on TNT Total of the Month on Knicks/Magic UNDER 213
New York is 0-2 against Boston and 0-2 against Miami. Looking for a signature win against an Eastern Conference powerhouse, the Knicks know they must bring the "D" tonight.

We can normally count on strong defensive performances from the Magic, which are only allowing 91.1 ppg at home this season. It is worth noting that the Under is 15-5-1 in the Magic's last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Under is 3-0-1 in the Knicks' last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

Getting a little more specific, we find that Orlando is 12-3 Under as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since the beginning of last season. We are only seeing 185.2 total points scored in these games.

There's sure to be playoff intensity tonight, and I expect it to result in the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 203.5
The fact that Dallas won the season's first meeting at OKC plays right into our hands here. Consider that plays Under on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite, provided that team has won 60-75% or more of its games on the season, are 87-43 the last 5 seasons (66.9%). This system is already 2-0 this season.

The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City. Odds makers have set the bar too high tonight. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Month on Blazers/Suns OVER 204.5
With the Suns out to avenge Tuesday's loss to Portland, and with the Blazers having just played last night, I love our chances with the Over. We saw 205 total points scored in Tuesday's matchup, and Blazers starting point guard Andre Miller didn't play in that game. He has thrived when playing at Phoenix, scoring 22.8 points and 8.0 assists in his last five visits.

Portland is a good defensive team, but it won't be able to bring the same energy to the defensive end tonight after just playing a game last night. In fact, the Over is 5-2 in the Trail Blazers' last 7 games playing on 0 days rest and 9-2 in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Over is 14-3 in the Suns' last 17 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Phoenix is also a perfect 8-0 Over after playing a home game this season. We are seeing 230.4 totals points on average in this situation. Bet the Over.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Heat/Mavs UNDER 189
Right away I love the fact that plays Under on any team off a road win versus a division rival, against an opponent coming off a home win, are 6-1 this season.

In addition, plays Under on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points off a home win, extremely tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 76-39 the last 5 seasons, including 2-0 already this season. We are only seeing 183 total points scored on average in this situation.

Miami is 15-3 Under in road games where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 179.1 total points in these games. Lastly, the Under is 15-5-1 in the Mavericks' last 21 home games. Expect a hard-fought defensive battle between two of the best defensive teams in the league to result in the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Knicks/Bobcats UNDER 206.5
These 2 teams combined for 217 points in last night's meeting, but that certainly hasn't been the norm in this showdown. Prior to that game, 5 straight had easily found their way under this number. I expect Charlotte to tighten the screws defensively to keep this one under tonight.

This is a terrific unders situation. In fact, plays Under on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Charlotte in this case) after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, against an opponent that has gone over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, are 70-33 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator (ESPN) Suns/Heat UNDER 209
The Heat have played to the Over in 6 straight. Plus, they are playing the Suns, who have annually been among the highest scoring teams in the NBA since Steve Nash landed in the desert. Because of the public perception associated with the 2 aforementioned facts, odds makers have purposely set the bar too high tonight. They are looking to trap the public, but we won't bite.

Miami held each of its first 7 opponents to 97 or fewer points. It held 5 of those below 90. Since, the Heat have given up 100 or more in 3 straight. I expect to see a defensive effort resembling the first 7 tonight. Miami is well rested, having not played since the 13th. Plus, it is facing a Phoenix team that will be playing its 4th game in 6 days.

In addition, Phoenix becomes an even more perimeter oriented team with the injury to Robin Lopez. Miami should have a lot of defensive success against a Suns team that will have to settle for a lot of contested jump shots. Bet the Under tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on T-Wolves/Hawks OVER 204.5
Minnesota has played to the Under in 4 straight while facing totals of 214.5 or higher. Now, the number has been lowered by double digits. This creates excellent line value with the Over, especially since the Hawks will be ready to take out the frustration of a 4-game skid on an inferior opponent.

We saw 216 total points scored when these teams met last week. Plus, Minnesota is allowing 112.3 points on the road this season, and Atlanta is 21-0 OVER its last 21 home games when its scores 105 or more points. We are seeing an average of 218.2 total points scored in these 21 games. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on Lakers/Celtics UNDER 190.5
In the last two games of this series, neither team has shot better than 44.7 percent. I expect the defensive intensity to remain high in Game 4 with the Celtics especially taking things up another notch as this is a must-win game for them. As a result, I expect to see Game 4 come in well Under the number as well. The Lakers are 9-1 Under after allowing 85 points or less this season. Boston is 12-4 Under when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent this season. In addition, the Under is a perfect 4-0 in the Celtics' last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, we can't overlook how good of a job the Lakers are doing of getting back on defense to slow down Boston's transition game. Defense wins championships and both of these teams know that. Defense should also keep us Under this number. Best of Luck!

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Magic UNDER 189.5
This matchup has been an Unders machine as the Celtics are one of the few teams in the NBA that have proven they can defend the Magic consistently. In fact, we have seen 7 of the last 8 meetings play to the Under and 9 of the last 12 meetings in Orlando finish Under. And I also love the fact that road teams with a total of 180 to 189.5 points revenging a same season loss versus an opponent, if that opponent is off 2 or more consecutive road wins, are 72-36 to the Under since 1996, including 18-5 over the last 3 seasons and a perfect 1-0 this season. We are only seeing 181.1 total points scored on average in these games. The Under is 7-1 in the Celtics' last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and also 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pound the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator (ESPN) on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 196.5
Boston doesn't want to go back to Cleveland for a Game 7, and Cleveland is fighting for its playoff life. In other words, we can expect a very physical, defensive minded Game 6 in Boston tonight. Cleveland just gave up 120 points on its home floor so you can bet it will be tightening the screws defensively. And we can't ignore the fact that the Under is 28-13 in the Celtics' last 41 games following a win of more than 10 points. In addition, Boston is on a 17-4 Unders run after a huge blowout win by 30 or more, and we are only seeing 182.7 total points scored on average in these spots. Also, the Under is 7-1 in the Cavaliers' last 8 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 26-12 in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss at home. Pound the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 207
We missed with the Under 203 in Game 3 as the Lakers and the Jazz combined to make 23 3-point shots. To put this in further perspective, these 2 teams only average a total of 12 makes on the season. In other words, the Lakers and Jazz put 33 more points on the board from behind the 3-point line than they normally get. So if they had just hit their averages, we only would have seen 188 points scored in Game 3. With the total having been raised to 207, and with it being highly unlikely that both teams will find so much success behind the 3-point line in Game 4, I love our chances with the Under. I mean, there's no way Kyle Korver is going 9 of 10 from the field and 5 of 5 from beyond the arc in this game. I don't think there's any way Ron Artest even goes 4 of 7 from deep in this game. We've seen 4 of the last 5 in this series go Under in Utah. We also can't overlook the fact that Utah is on a 17-4 Unders run in the 4th game of a playoff series, and we are only seeing 184.1 total points scored on average in these game. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 203
The first two games of this series have gone over the number, the under is still 7-2 in the last 9 meetings. It is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Utah. This is the first game this series where the total has been listed at over 200 points and that is significant because the Lakers are 14-6 Under when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season, and we are only seeing 195.2 total points scored on average in these games. In addition, Utah is 22-11 Under in home games where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons, and we are seeing an average total score of just 201.8 points in these games. It is also worth noting that the Lakers are 12-4 Under as a road underdog this season, and we are only seeing 188.6 total points scored in this situation on average. With both teams extremely fresh after several days of rest, I expect them both to really get after it on the defensive end tonight. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Jazz/Lakers UNDER 199
7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams have finished Under the number with Game 1 of this series finally breaking the Unders streak. Game 1 only finished a few points over the number despite the Jazz allowing the Lakers to shoot over 53 percent from the field. I don't see that happening again tonight. Plus, the Lakers are well-known for playing a slower pace in the postseason than they do in the regular season. As a result, the Under is 20-8 in the Lakers' last 28 playoff games as a favorite and 16-5 in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Under is also 12-5 in the Lakers' last 17 home games. The fact that odds makers have come back with basically the same line that was set for Game 1, despite that game going over, tells me that they are looking for action on the over. And they are getting it. We'll gladly go against the grain as both of these teams really buckle down defensively in what should be a very intense Game 2. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Suns/Blazers UNDER 204.5
Each of the first two games in this series have gone Over, and yet the total for Game 3 is right around where it has been in each of the first two games. This tells me that odds makers are looking for action to come in on the Over, and they are getting it. Portland, a team that takes pride in its defense, was absolutely embarrassed in Game 2, giving up 119 points to the Suns and allowing them to shoot 52.3% from the field. Expect the Blazers to be extremely motivated to get after it on the defensive end after such a poor performance. In fact, Portland is 16-5 Under after allowing 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons, and it is only allowing 89.7 points on average in these spots. Also, Phoenix is 8-1 Under in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season, and we are only seeing a total of 201.6 points scored on average in these spots. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Magic/Hawks UNDER 196
We've seen the last 4 meetings between these two teams finish Under the number with the average combined score in these games totaling just 180.8 points. This matchup will feel like a playoff game as the defensive intensity should increase. The fact that Orlando crushed the Hawks by 18 the last time these two teams met will have Atlanta out for blood tonight. Revenge plays in our favor here as Atlanta is 19-6 Under when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more versus an opponent over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing 184.8 total points scored in these spots on average. Plus, Atlanta is 23-12 Under vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 182.3 points scored in these games. Yes, Orlando has been scoring the rock lately, but it is 16-4 Under after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 191.3 points scored in these spots. We'll take the Under tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Kings UNDER 206
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA), tired team playing its 3rd road game in 5 days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 130-82 since 1996, including 63-33 the last 3 seasons. The Lakers just played a fast-paced game in Golden State last night so they aren't going to have the energy to run and gun again here. Expect the Lakers to slow the pace as much as possible, operating in the half court offensively. The Lakers are also 24-11 Under when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing 199.8 points scored in the games on average. The Under is also 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Public Massacre on Mavericks/Timberwolves UNDER 207
The public money is coming in on the Over in this matchup tonight because Dallas has played to the Over in 6 of its last 7 and Minnesota in 3 straight. Also, we have seen high-scoring affairs the last two times these teams have faced off. But I don't expect these trends to hold up tonight. The Under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings between these two sides, including a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota. Furthermore, Dallas is extremely tired right now having played a ton of games in few days since the All-Star break. Also, the average total score in Mavs road games this season is 199.7 points. In T-Wolves home games, it's 199.1 points. These two teams have played much lower scoring games in Minnesota and we expect this trend to continue tonight.

3* Sunday NBA "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Kings UNDER 202.5
These two teams just played Tuesday in OKC and we saw them combine for 220 points. The Thunder gave up 107 points in that game and then they gave up 119 to Denver the next night. Kevin Durant spoke about how disappointed he was with the team's defensive effort in those games, and rightfully so, as the Thunder have only been allowing 96.4 points this season. They stepped up against the Clippers Friday, holding them to just 87 points, and I expect them to bring the "D" again tonight. Prior to Tuesday's encounter, the three previous meetings had all come in Under 200 points. Plus, the Kings have scored 98 or fewer points in 7 of their last 10 games so their offense clearly isn't what it was prior to trading Kevin Martin. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento between these two teams. Take the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Kings/Thunder UNDER 203
We've seen each of the last three meetings between these two teams coming in under the number with scores of 197, 191 and 199, and I'm expecting this one to stay under 200 as well. OKC is coming off a blowout win over Toronto, and it has Denver up next, but I don't believe the Thunder will get caught looking ahead here because they will be looking to avenge a loss to Sacramento. That means we can expect to see Oklahoma City's rock solid defense that is only allowing 95.2 ppg at home. The Kings have really struggled to score on the road, tallying scores of just 98, 89 and 88 in their last 3 road games. In fact, the Kings have been held to 98 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 games and the Under is 5-2 in those games as a result. Sac is 9-1 Under on Tuesday nights this season and 12-3 Under in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the Thunder's last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Under.

5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Suns/Thunder UNDER 204
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games, are a perfect 15-0 this season. With Steve Nash not playing tonight, the Suns won't have as much success pushing the pace and their pick-n-roll game won't be nearly as smooth. Plus, Phoenix is 7-0 Under in the second half of the season this season and 10-0 Under in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons. We'll bet the Under here.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator (ABC) on Cavs/Magic UNDER 195
I expect a very physical defensive battle as this game takes on the feel of a playoff game Sunday afternoon. After allowing 106 points or more in each of its last 3 games, expect a Cleveland team only allowing 94.9 ppg on the season to really clamp down on the defensive end. Orlando will be equally motivated to "D" up after allowing 115 points to the Cavs just 10 days ago. The Magic are only allowing 94.2 ppg at home this season. This is a very strong system as it applies to both teams: plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, extremely well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are 38-13 the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 2-0 already this season. The average total posted in these games has been 195 and we are only seeing a total of 187.1 points scored on average. Bet the Under.

5* Never Lost NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Mavs UNDER 217.5
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games are 51-15 the last 5 seasons including a Perfect 10-0 this season. In addition, plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Dallas in this case; cold team failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, are 26-4 since 1996 and 10-1 the last 3 seasons. With the Mavs still adjusting to their new teammates, I don't think they will have enough offensive cohesiveness to push this one over the number.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 195
The Mavericks have acquired DeShawn Stevenson, Brendan Haywood and Caron Butler and they are expected to see action right away. This is going to create some chemistry problems initially, especially on the offensive end, and this is the chief reason why I think this one comes in Under the number tonight. Plus, I like the fact that plays Under on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), are 43-18 since 1996, including 11-2 over the last 3 seasons. The Under is also 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams played in Seattle/Oklahoma City and 10-2 in the Thunder's last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. We'll bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Kings/Knicks UNDER 215.5
The Kings are 7-0 Under on Tuesday nights this season and we are only seeing 196.2 points in these games. I think it no coincidence either as the Kings are just 6-17 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons while only scoring 98.1 points in these games. Tuesday is a flat night for this team, most likely because it is often times their first game of the week. The Under is also 7-1 in the Knicks' last 8 Tuesday games and 5-0 in their last 5 games when playing on 2 days rest. NY is also 10-1 Under after trailing in its previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons and Sac is 11-1 Under after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. We'll take the Under here.

3* NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Spurs/Lakers UNDER 194
With Andrew Bynum listed as doubtful and with Kobe Bryant clearly not at 100 percent (listed as questionable), we can't expect to see the Laker offense hitting on all cylinders tonight. Plus, these two teams always know that it is a possibility they could see each other in the postseason so these games tend to mirror the postseason in terms of defensive intensity. That's why we've seen so many low-scoring contests. The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall. The Under is also 6-0 in the Spurs' last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 5-1 in their last 6 road games period. Over the last 80 games between these two teams, we have seen an average combined score of just 187 points. And in the last 6 meetings in LA, we are only seeing an average of 186 combined points. We'll take the Under.

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year (ESPN) on Nuggets/Lakers UNDER 202.5
The Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in LA. The Under is also 6-1 in the Nuggets' last 7 road games and 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The last time these two teams met, clear back in November, we only saw 184 total points scored with the Nuggets holding the Lakers to just 79 points. The Lakers have not soon forgotten that embarrassing loss and I expect them to really buckle down on the defensive end tonight. But on top of the motivation, the star power in this matchup is banged up. The Nuggets are expected to be without Carmelo Anthony once again and Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. We'll pound the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Bobcats/Trail Blazers UNDER 189.5
Portland has gone over in 6 straight and Charlotte is 5-0-1 Over in its last 6 and this has elevated tonight's line. This matchup has typically been a low scoring one. In fact, we haven't seen a total set this high between these two teams since 2007, and that line was just 190. In the last two meetings, we have seen lines of 179.5 and 171 respectively, and we have seen total scores of just 162 and 154. Both of these teams prefer to play in the half court, and that

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/Thunder UNDER 214
The Under is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when the Warriors have visited the Thunder and I fully expect this trend to continue. The Thunder prefer to play at a slower pace, averaging just 98.7 ppg at home, and they are strong defensively, allowing only 94.7 ppg at home. In fact, OKC is even 15-5 Under in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 196.5 points scored in these spots. The Thunder enter on a 6-1 Unders run and the Warriors are 4-1 Under in their last 5 road games. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Magic UNDER 193.5
Each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have finished Under the number while averaging only 177.7 combined points scored. Revenge is a great defensive motivator. In fact, Atlanta is on a 25-7 Unders run when revenging a loss of 10 points, and we are only seeing 184.7 combined points in these games. The Under is also a perfect 8-0 in the Magic's last 8 games playing on 1 day's rest and 7-1-1 in the Hawks' last 9 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/76ers UNDER 204.5
I expect these two teams to keep this total Under the 200 mark tonight. The Lakers are 10-2 Under after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season, with the average total score coming in at just 190.1 in these spots. After an easy win over Indiana, the Lakers will be much more concerned about being fresh for their next game against Boston than they will about hammering the 76ers. Plus, this is the Lakers 6th straight road game so I expect Phil Jackson to give his bench plenty of minutes tonight, and that bench hasn't been getting the job done over the course of the season. Philly has played to the Under in 5 straight and 8 of its last 9 games as it has been held under the century mark in 7 of its last 9 contests. The Under is also 6-0 in the 76ers' last 6 home games. We'll take the Under here.

5* NBA on TNT Total of the Year on Celtics/Magic UNDER 190
This matchup has been an Unders machine with the last 6 meetings playing to the Under and 6 of the last 7 meetings in Orlando coming in Under the number. I fully expect this trend to continue this evening as these two Eastern Conference powers engage in a defensive battle. The Magic are struggling from the field, and as a result, we've seen them play to the Under in 5 of their last 6 and 8 of their last 10. Boston has played to the Under in 4 of its last 5 as well. One thing we can usually count on is Boston bringing the "D" against top notch competition, especially now that K.G. is back. In fact, Boston is 11-1 Under in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons and we are only seeing an average of 177.8 points scored in the games. The Under is also 5-0 in the Magic's last 5 games playing on 2 day's rest, 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record, and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Bucks/Mavs UNDER 198
This matchup has seen a lot of Overs in recent years, but tonight's situation looks very favorable to the Under. First off Milwaukee is 9-4 to the Under in its last 13 road games. Secondly, plays Under on any team, Milwaukee in this case, after a huge blowout win by 30 or more, against an opponent that led by at least 15 points at halftime in its last game, are 15-1 over the last 3 seasons. And when the team is off a blowout win by just 20 or more points in the above situation, the Under is 103-48 since 1996. Both of these teams had ridiculous shooting percentages from the floor in their last games, better than 57%. That won't happen again tonight. Bet the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator of the Month on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 185
When Kevin Garnett went down with an injury, the Boston Celtics lost their identity as a shutdown defensive team. Well guess who's back? Garnett returns to the lineup tonight and I expect his presence to provide the C's with a big lift no matter how much he plays. Portland has been a strong defensive team on the road, only allowing 93.2 ppg, but it hasn't been able to do much on the offensive end, scoring only 93.8 ppg. With Brandon Roy not in the lineup tonight, I expect the Blazers to struggle offensively against a Celtics squad primed and ready to dig in on the defensive end. The Blazers are really hurting on the interior with both Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla's absences leaving them paper thin. Expect Boston to really slow this game down to take advantage of scoring opportunities inside tonight. Portland is going to want to make this game a track meet and I just don't see the Celtics letting the Blazers control the tempo on their home floor. Each of these two teams have played to the Under in 3 straight and the last two head-to-head matchups have averaged only 174 points. We'll take the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Bailout on Bulls/Clippers UNDER 195
The Bulls have been an Unders machine on the road at 11-6-1 to the Under this season. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been an Unders machine at home, going 16-6 Under. The last time these two teams met in LA we only saw 170 points put up on the board while facing a similar number (196). With that in mind, we should be seeing a lower number tonight, but the Clippers have elevated the line by playing to the Over in 5 straight. The Clippers are also 11-3 Under in home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season with the average combined score totaling just 188 points in those games. Take the Under.