Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-19-23 | Patriots +3 v. Packers | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. While Patriots head coach Bill Bellichick isn't exactly known for his preseason success I do think last week's ugly showing at home against the Texans mattered. Here, the Pats will head back to the field following a couple of days of joint practices with the Packers and by all accounts New England took it to Green Bay in those sessions - particularly on offense. It's worth noting that the Pats check in off a loss last week as they haven't dropped consecutive preseason games (in the same year) since way back in 2017. The Packers are 'fat and happy' off a 36-19 dismantling of the Bengals, on the road no less, last week. That result was more about the Bengals sloppy play than it was the Packers sharpness. Here, we're once again likely to see plenty of Penn State alum Sean Clifford under center for the Packers. The Patriots defense was actually flying around against the Texans last week but didn't end up with much to show for it. I expect them to feast on the Packers depth-shy offense here. Take New England (10*). |
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08-19-23 | Montreal v. Ottawa +1.5 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Alouettes have won consecutive meetings in this series but haven't notched three straight victories over the RedBlacks since 2021. Here, they're in a tough spot noting they've gone a woeful 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following consecutive ATS victories as a favorite, as is the case here. Montreal will get QB Cody Fajardo back on the field this week but this is an offense that is predicated on running the football effectively. Note that Ottawa has been stout against the run this season, especially by CFL standards, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush. The previous two times the RedBlacks played at home off a loss this season they delivered a 26-7 win over Edmonton and a 31-28 victory over Winnipeg. Take Ottawa (8*). |
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08-19-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 8-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair to open this series last night with 11 total runs on the board. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as Boston sends Kutter Crawford to the hill against Gerrit Cole of the Yankees. Crawford has labored through his last couple of starts but it hasn't been all bad. He did allow just five of the 19 batters he faced reach base in a 6-3 win over the Tigers last time out. Note that Crawford has posted a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in eight road starts this season. In a similar vein, he has logged a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in six daytime outings. Gerrit Cole certainly hasn't been to blame for the Yankees recent struggles. He has worked at least six innings in eight straight starts, allowing two earned runs or less in six of those appearances. Cole owns a 2.87 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 14 home starts this season and a 2.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 13 daytime outings. Both bullpens are serviceable here. Incredibly, the Red Sox relief corps has converted 21 saves while blowing only two on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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08-19-23 | Jaguars v. Lions OVER 39 | 25-7 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Detroit at 1 pm et on Saturday. The Jaguars produced 28 points in last week's win in Dallas, fuelled by the performance of QB Nathan Rourke who continues to battle for a spot on the roster. Rourke is expected to get a long look again on Saturday in Detroit after he was sparsely used during join practices with the Lions this week. Jacksonville has a ton of depth at the wide receiver position, a big reason they balled out with Rourke under center last week against the Cowboys. The Lions came from behind to defeat the Giants by a 21-16 score in Week 1. We're unlikely to see their starters again here, but like the Jags, played aggressively on offense last week and should continue to do so here as they look to give their receivers a good look on Saturday. Keep in mind, the Jags did give up 23 points in last Saturday's victory and that was despite the Cowboys shooting themselves in the foot on numerous occasions, not to mention the fact that Jacksonville racked up four sacks in the game (the Lions allowed just one sack against the Giants last week). Take the over (8*). |
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08-18-23 | Orioles -169 v. A's | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Orioles are licking their wounds after suffering consecutive losses in San Diego but after a day off on Thursday I look for them to 'get right' in their series-opener in Oakland on Friday. Kyle Gibson was awful for the O's in his most recent trip to the hill, allowing nine earned runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Mariners. Credit Gibson for eating as many innings as he did on that night. Keep in mind, he had been pitching well, working at least six innings in four straight starts while allowing just nine earned runs in 25 frames of work. A start against the A's would appear to be a soft landing for the veteran right-hander, noting he owns a career 6-3 record with a 3.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 11 previous outings against them. Luis Medina will take the ball for Oakland. He's been reliable as far as staying healthy and taking his regular turn in the rotation since late April but his results have been mixed. Medina checks in sporting a 4.84 FIP and 1.53 WHIP. He puts a ton of runners on base having allowed 132-of-375 batters to reach this season and is precisely the type of pitcher the O's lineup tends to feast on. Behind Medina is an A's bullpen that has logged a 5.26 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted only 20 saves while blowing 23 this season. The O's 'pen on the other hand has recorded a collective 2.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests and has converted 39 saves while blowing 23 on the season. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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08-18-23 | Panthers v. Giants OVER 38.5 | Top | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and New York at 7 pm et on Friday. Giants head coach Brian Daboll couldn't have been too pleased by his team's performance last week in Detroit, even if it is only the preseason. New York jumped out to a 13-3 halftime lead but could only muster a single field goal the rest of the way in an eventual 21-16 defeat at the hands of the Lions. Keep in mind, in Daboll's first year at the helm in 2022, New York scored 23, 25 and 27 points in preseason action. Here, Giants starters are expected to make a cameo appearance before Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito take over the QB reins the rest of the way. I expect better efficiency from the Giants offense as a whole this week. The Panthers are in a similar situation, looking to bounce back from an ugly performance against the Jets, at home no less, last week. Carolina was shut out in that contest so there's obviously nowhere to go but up this week. Offensive line issues plagued the Panthers in that contest. I look for them to do a better job of getting the ball out quickly. Rookie Bryce Young is expected to get the start again here but we can anticipate Matt Corral to get the bulk of the snaps under center with Jake Luton possibly mixing in as well. I look for the WR duo of Shi Smith and Javon Wims to make some headway against Giants backups on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-18-23 | Blue Jays -145 v. Reds | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. While the Reds are coming off a win over the Guardians to split their two-game series on Wednesday, they're still just 4-10 over their last 14 games and will give Brett Kennedy a spot start out of necessity only on Friday. Kennedy has made just one start previously this season and while it was a win, it came on the road against the Nationals. I don't believe he'll prove to be a good fit here at Great American Ballpark and certainly not in this particular matchup. Note that Kennedy has logged a 3.52 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in 64 innings pitched at Triple-A Louisville this season. Jose Berrios will counter for Toronto. While he did struggle against the Cubs in his most recent start, he has enjoyed a bounce-back season overall, posting a 4.00 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 24 starts. Behind Berrios is a Blue Jays bullpen that welcomed back closer Jordan Romano earlier this week and has recorded a collective 1.85 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games. Over that same stretch, the Reds have managed to convert just one save while blowing three. Take Toronto (10*). |
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08-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw this same pitching matchup last Saturday in Arizona as Zac Gallen stymied the Padres bats over six innings in a 3-0 Diamondbacks victory. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. Gallen has now held the Padres scoreless over his last two starts against them, covering a span of 13 innings. Both of those starts came in Arizona, however. The last time he faced them at Petco Park, back in early April, he was tagged for five runs (four of them earned) over six innings of work. A number of current Padres hitters have had success against Gallen. Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. have all homered off of him in the past (among others). The trio of Bogaerts, Machado and Tatis Jr. have gone a combined 14-of-43 (.326) with eight extra-base hits off of Gallen. It's a similar story with Padres veteran left-hander Rich Hill against the D'Backs. Current Arizona hitters have gone a combined 17-of-56 (.304) with eight extra-base hits off of Hill. In two starts since joining San Diego, Hill has logged an awful 8.79 FIP and 2.05 WHIP in 6 1/3 innings of work. That's obviously a very small sample size but on the season, Hill owns a less than impressive 4.66 FIP and 1.51 WHIP as well. Entering yesterday's action, the two bullpens had been struggling with the D'Backs relief corps logging a collective 5.16 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games and the Padres 'pen posting a 5.70 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. In division games this season, the San Diego bullpen has recorded a 5.26 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with only 10 saves converted and nine blown. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-23 | Browns v. Eagles -3.5 | 18-18 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Eagles fell by a 20-19 score, blowing a second half lead last week in Baltimore. I look for them to bounce back here as they host the Browns following a couple days of joint practices. Things got a little testy during those practices, with some Eagles defenders apparently taking 'cheap shots' at Browns QB Deshaun Watson. That was 'much ado about nothing' according to most reports. None of the starters are expected to take the field for the Browns on Thursday, nor do I expect to see many of the Eagles front-line players in prominent roles. I did feel that Philadelphia's loss against the Ravens was a little misleading. The Eagles moved the football with ease in the early stages of that contest - in fact, each of their five first half drives ended up in Ravens territory with three resulted in scores. QB Tanner McKee completed only 10-of-20 pass attempts but flashed at times and likely earned additional playing time this week. While the Eagles didn't play the majority of their regular starters in that game, they did give plenty of veterans a run and I would expect more of the same here. For the Browns, rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has all but earned a roster spot after consecutive impressive performances to open the preseason. He's expected to start and play the entire first half on Thursday. I do think this will be the toughest test he has faced so far as the Eagles defense was humming in last week's contest in Baltimore (they held Baltimore to fewer than 10 yards on three of five first half drives and their backups produced a pick-six in the second half). Apart from DTR, Browns backups at the skill positions on offense haven't shown a ton of upside through two preseason contests. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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08-17-23 | Browns v. Eagles OVER 37.5 | 18-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We've seen this total drop with both teams unlikely to play their starters following a couple of joint practices earlier in the week. I believe it's the wrong move as both offenses showed some upside last week and I expect to see further progression on Thursday. Browns rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been one of the breakout 'stars' of the preseason so far. His play has earned him the start (and likely a half of action) in Thursday's game in Philadelphia. Perhaps the best news for our purposes is that projected backup QB Joshua Dobbs is expected to get the night off after he had an awful showing last week against Washington. The Eagles gave QB Tanner McKee a long leash in last week's game against Baltimore and it paid off as he showed a lot of poise in the pocket, despite completing only 10-of-20 passes. I liked McKee's ability to push the ball down the field and his fearlessness overall - unlike what we saw from fourth-string QB Ian Book who looked like a deer caught in the headlights late in the game. We should see plenty of McKee again on Thursday and I like the potential of the Eagles hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard with plenty of veterans (if not regular starters) being sprinkled into the mix early on. Note that all five of Philadelphia's first half drives in Baltimore last week ended in Ravens territory. Take the over (8*). |
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08-16-23 | Phillies +132 v. Blue Jays | 9-4 | Win | 132 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays eked out a 2-1 victory in the opener of this brief two-game series last night. I look for the Phillies to answer back on Wednesday. Philadelphia will give Aaron Nola the start as he comes off a terrific outing against the Nationals last time out (5 IP, 1 ER). Things haven't always gone well for the right-hander this season but he's hung tough to the tune of a 4.21 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. Remember, he finished fourth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last year - the third time in the last five seasons he finished top-seven in that category. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto. He has faced the Phillies three times since 2021 and hasn't allowed a single earned run in any of those outings (18 IP). That doesn't tell the whole story, however. A number of current Phillies hitters have had considerable success against Gausman. Bryce Harper is 9-of-21 with a home run, Kyle Schwarber is 3-of-10 with all three of those hits being home runs, Trea Turner is 8-of-24 with three extra-base hits and Nick Castellanos is 7-of-24 with two home runs and two doubles. While the Blue Jays do appear to hold the edge in terms of the two bullpens, I don't mind backing a Phillies relief corps that has converted 21 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. While Philadelphia has now lost three games in a row, it's worth noting that it has dropped four or more consecutive games just once going all the way back to June 3rd. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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08-15-23 | Orioles v. Padres OVER 8 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring affair to open this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the visiting Orioles. He's been effective but certainly not dominant since joining the Orioles at the trade deadline. On the season, Flaherty owns a rather disappointing 4.12 FIP and 1.55 WHIP. Of the 534 batters he has faced this season, 195 have reached base - that's a nearly 37% clip and simply isn't good enough. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Michael Wacha, who makes his first big league start since early July following a stint on the I.L. Wacha did made one brief minor league appearance, allowing 5-of-11 batters to reach base in two innings of work. There's no denying Wacha has exceeded expectations when he's been healthy this season but he'll be facing an Orioles club that averages north of five runs per game on the road this season on Tuesday. Behind Wacha is a sagging Padres bullpen that entered this series having logged a collective 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last seven games. While I do expect the Padres bats to get to Flaherty, I'm not convinced San Diego's pitching staff can keep the O's bats at bay. Take the over (8*). |
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08-14-23 | Yankees v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring contests on Sunday, both in losing efforts. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Yankees send Clarke Schmidt to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. Schmidt got hit hard in April but has since turned things around, allowing three earned runs or less in an incredible 14 straight starts. He has lowered his FIP to 4.28 and his WHIP to 1.29 over that stretch. Remember, Schmidt worked 57 2/3 innings for the Yanks last season, posting a 3.60 FIP and 1.20 WHIP so we know what he's capable of. Max Fried was terrific in his first outing back from the I.L. but proceeded to struggle last time out. His overall numbers this season are incredible as he has logged a 2.60 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, albeit in just 36 innings of work. Fried finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season, recording a 2.70 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. The Yankees bullpen will be looking to bounce back after imploding in yesterday's wild 8-7 defeat. Entering that contest, New York's relief corps had posted a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only five blown on the road this season. Atlanta's 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 37 saves converted and 18 blown this season. While Atlanta's series finale against the Mets did find its way 'over' the total last night, we didn't see consecutive 'over' results in that four-game series (on the heels of a six-game 'over' streak). Meanwhile, the Yankees have recorded consecutive 'over' results just once since July 31st. Take the under (10*). |
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08-13-23 | Ottawa v. Toronto UNDER 48 | Top | 31-44 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Toronto at 7 pm et on Sunday. While things haven't gone particularly well for the RedBlacks overall this season, their defense has held up reasonably well, allowing more than 28 points just once. Only two opponents have managed to rack up 100+ rushing yards against them while they've allowed just one opponent to complete more than 23 passes. The league-leading Argonauts figure to challenge them here but with QB Chad Kelly at less than 100% healthy after suffering an ankle injury last week and an offense that sputtered as a whole last week in Calgary, there is a window of opportunity for the RedBlacks here. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 31-7 with Toronto playing on eight or more days' rest, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 33-16 in Ottawa's last 49 game road games against divisional foes. The 'over' did cash in the most recent matchup between these two teams last September but we haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series go 'over' the total since 2019. Take the under (10*). |
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08-13-23 | Rangers v. Giants -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Rangers have taken the first two games of this series, just as they did earlier this week in Oakland before getting shut out in the finale. While they're playing exceptionally well, I expect them to fail to close out the series sweep again here. Dane Dunning will get the start for Texas. He's not enjoying his best stretch of the season by any means, having allowed 4, 2, 5, 3, 1 and 3 earned runs over his last six outings. Note that while his overall numbers are solid this season, he has struggled in two particular situations - in day games and interleague matchups. Dunning owns a 4.83 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in six afternoon starts and a 5.22 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in six interleague outings. His counterpart on Sunday will be Giants ace Logan Webb. He finished 11th in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and his numbers have been right on par this year with a 3.29 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. He's worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts, allowing two earned runs or less in five of those outings. He should be happy to be facing the Rangers, noting that he's been on the mound for 9-2 and 4-2 victories in his two previous starts against them. While the Rangers bullpen owns an advantage in terms of recent form, the Giants relief corps has been the better unit overall this season, logging a collective 3.64 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a whopping 42 saves converted compared to only 19 blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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08-12-23 | Brewers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. Neither starter was effective in last night's 7-6 Brewers extra innings victory to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold in Saturday's rematch. Brandon Woodruff will get the start for Milwaukee. He's made just three starts due to injury issues this season but has pitched exceptionally well when he's been healthy, logging a 3.63 FIP and 0.86 WHIP while allowing only 14-of-60 batters he's face to reach base in 16 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, White Sox rookie Jesse Scholtens has had mixed results with a 4.52 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. Since re-joining the Chicago rotation earlier this month he has been sharp, however, allowing just three earned runs on nine hits while striking out 12 and walking only two in 12 innings of work. Both bullpens have been solid lately with the Brewers relief corps posting a collective 3.49 ERA over the last seven games and the White Sox 'pen logging a 3.11 ERA over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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08-12-23 | Calgary v. BC UNDER 45.5 | 9-37 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. We're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in the first meeting between these two teams this season, which took place way back in Week 1. That game totalled only 40 points and I believe the lower total for this rematch is warranted. Calgary enters this game playing terrific defensive football. The Stampeders have held their last two opponents - formidable foes at that in Montreal and Toronto - to a combined 28-of-50 passing for just over 300 yards. The Lions offensive attack will welcome back QB Vernon Adams Jr. but once again will be without standout WR Dominique Rhymes. Without Rhymes last week against Winnipeg, B.C. managed only 189 passing yards on 39 pass attempts. On the flip side, the Lions defense laid an egg in last week's 50-14 beatdown at the hands of the Blue Bombers. This is still an elite group that I fully expect to see bounce back against Calgary. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 35-15 with Calgary coming off four or five losses in its last six games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 159-110 with the Lions checking in as a favorite. Take the under (8*). |
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08-12-23 | Jaguars v. Cowboys OVER 37.5 | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Dallas at 5 pm et on Saturday. This is one of the highest posted totals on the Week 1 NFL Preseason board but I believe it's warranted. The Jaguars didn't have a great preseason a year ago although that mattered little once the regular season started as they went on to have a terrific year that was only brought to an end in the playoffs in Kansas City. I like the make-up of the Jags preseason offense this year and believe they're favored for a reason in this spot. Keep an eye on QB Nathan Rourke - the former Ohio University (and CFL) standout that's making a case for a roster spot. He's likely to see plenty of second half action after Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Beathard get their reps on Saturday. The Jags also have a number of wide receivers fighting for roster positions, including Kevin Austin Jr. and Elijah Cooks who have both flashed during training camp. The Cowboys have a familiar preseason QB rotation with Cooper Rush and Will Grier likely to see the bulk of the action on Saturday. Similar to the Jags, the Cowboys have precious few wide receiver roster spots up for grabs and will be looking to audition the likes of Jalen Moreno-Cropper and Jalen Brooks here. Watch for diminutive RB Deuce Vaughn as well - he has already become a fan favorite during camp and should get a chance to shine against the Jags defensive backups here. Take the over (8*). |
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08-11-23 | Brewers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent contests. In the White Sox case, they're coming off a nine-run outburst against the Yankees. To put things in perspective, they had plated just 11 runs combined over their previous three contests. Here, they'll face Brewers starter Corbin Burnes. He's made seven starts since the beginning of July, working at least six innings in all seven of those contests while allowing 2, 2, 0, 0, 2, 2 and 2 earned runs. His counterpart on Friday will be Michael Kopech. He hasn't been nearly as steady as Burnes but will have the benefit of facing a Brewers lineup that I feel ranks among the weakest in baseball and averages just 4.1 runs per game on the road this season. Behind Kopech is a White Sox bullpen that has actually turned things around lately, logging a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games. On that note, the Brewers 'pen has posted a 3.33 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the same stretch and has converted 21 saves while blowing only nine on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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08-11-23 | Saskatchewan +5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 12-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Saskatchewan plus the points over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. No one wanted any part of Saskatchewan last week at home against Ottawa after it had lost three games in a row including a 31-13 beatdown against Toronto in its Touchdown Atlantic game. The Roughriders didn't turn in a perfect performance but they did snap their skid with a 26-24 win. Here, I like their chances of staging the upset as they head on the road to face the upstart Alouettes on Friday. Montreal has posted back-to-back win (and covers) against the Stampeders and Tiger-Cats. Note that the Als are a long-term 37-63 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 1.6 points in that situation. The Riders are coming off somewhat of an outlier performance as they didn't force a single turnover against the RedBlacks. They were fortunate to pull out that win despite losing the turnover battle 3-0. The last time they failed to turn their opponent over even once they proceeded to force three in their next game - a 29-26 road win over Calgary back in Week 3. The Als are dealing with injury concerns on offense with both QB Cody Fajardo and RB William Stanback limited in practice this week but expected to suit up. Take Saskatchewan (10*). |
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08-11-23 | Falcons -2 v. Dolphins | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Friday. All indications are that the Dolphins offense and more specifically their offensive line has struggled mightily in camp and during joint practices with the Falcons this week. Now Miami is also dealing with a cluster of injuries at the skill positions on offense. Even though guys like Jaylen Waddle and Jeff Wilson Jr. weren't going to see much playing time, if any at all, in this game anyway, it's likely that this is a contest where the Fins want to effectively shorten proceedings and come out of it as healthy as possible. The needle is pointed up for the Falcons as they look to fine-tune a run-heavy offensive attack after making positive strides last year. Their preseason quarterback rotation will include Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke and Logan Woodside with the latter having gotten a year under his belt in this system in 2022. For Miami we're likely to see plenty of Skylar Thompson and Mike White under center. With a swinging-door offensive line I'm anticipating a rather vanilla offensive gameplan from it in Friday's opener. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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08-10-23 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks OVER 44.5 | 38-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Edmonton at 9 pm et on Thursday. The betting markets can be slow to react to CFL personnel changes and I think that's the case with this total as the Elks make the switch to Tre Ford at quarterback for Thursday's game against Winnipeg. Ford gave the Elks a spark in limited action last season, averaging 7.8 yards per rush while also proving to be a 'chaos QB', throwing five interceptions compared to two touchdowns on just 69 pass attempts. Winnipeg is coming off a 50-point explosion against a terrific B.C. defense last week and takes a big step down in class here, noting that Edmonton has allowed 100+ rushing yards in seven of eight games and 250+ passing yards in five of eight contests this season. While the Elks have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total that marks their longest such streak of the season. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 60-40 with the Elks coming off back-to-back 'unders' and 34-19 when following a double-digit loss against a divisional foe, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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08-10-23 | Texans v. Patriots OVER 36.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New England at 7 pm et on Thursday. It's not difficult to understand why this total has shifted downward over the course of the week. After all, these are expected to be two of the weaker offensive teams in the league this season and the Patriots have already indicated they won't be playing their starters here in Week 1 of the preseason. The Texans on the other hand will dress the majority of their starters but how much playing time they see remains to be seen. They also have a defensive-minded first year head coach in DeMeco Ryans. I still like the chances of a relatively high-scoring affair here. All indications are that the Texans offense has actually been clicking a little bit at camp and their preseason quarterback rotation of rookie C.J. Stroud, third-year former starter Davis Mills and veteran Case Keenum is actually encouraging. Rookie RB Xazavian Valladay has been turning heads during camp and will see plenty of playing time as well. On the flip side, the Pats are expected to give Bailey Zappe plenty of run at QB in their preseason opener. He's obviously comfortable operating the offense after seeing considerable playing time in place of an injured Mac Jones last year. He's been building a good rapport with a trio of wide receivers including impressive rookie Demario Douglas, with all of them getting first-team reps this week. New England also boasts a deep running back room with Pierre Strong Jr., Kevin Harris and J.J. Taylor ready to split up the work on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-23 | Twins -145 v. Tigers | 0-3 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Tigers have taken the last two games in this series but I look for them to come up empty in Thursday's series finale. Minnesota will hand the ball to Kenta Maeda as it looks to snap its brief two-game slide. Maeda has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball over his last few starts, recording a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He's certainly been at his best on the road this season, logging a 3.16 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His counterpart on Thursday will be rookie Reese Olson. Olson actually turned in his best outing of the season against these same Twins back in June but I think he'll be hard-pressed to repeat that performance here. He has seemingly hit the wall lately, allowing 13 earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 innings. With not much separating the two bullpens in this matchup, we'll go with the Twins and their starting pitching edge on Thursday. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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08-09-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers made a big lead stand up, just barely, in last night's 5-4 victory to open this brief two-game series in the desert. The Diamondbacks have picked a bad time to go on a slide, losers of seven games in a row. They simply haven't been able to come up with the clutch hits when needed over that stretch with the majority of those recent losses coming down to one or two runs. Here, I look for them to finally bounce back with Merrill Kelly getting the start against Bobby Miller. Miller impressed in his first four starts with the Dodgers this season, allowing just two earned runs on 12 hits in 18 innings of work. Things haven't gone nearly as smoothly since then, however, as he has yielded 28 earned runs over his last eight outings covering a span of 40 1/3 innings. After lasting exactly six innings in three of his first four big league starts, Miller has failed to make it through six frames in seven of his last eight outings. Merrill Kelly has made three starts since returning from a blood clot in his calf and has generally pitched well, yielding six earned runs in 17 innings. His most recent start might have been his best since returning as he struck out nine Twins batters over six innings, allowing just two solo home runs along the way. While his career 0-10 record against the Dodgers jumps off the page, it's worth noting that the D'Backs did secure a 2-1 victory with Kelly starting in Los Angeles earlier this season, snapping a streak of 10 straight Kelly starts against the Dodgers in which Arizona lost. The bullpen edge goes to the Dodgers in this matchup but the gap is not as wide as you might think. I do like the fact that the D'Backs relief corps has yet to reach 400 innings pitched this season. The Dodgers 'pen entered last night's action having logged 28 innings over the last seven games and tacked on another three frames in that contest. Note that Los Angeles hasn't had an off day since July 31st while Arizona was idle on Monday. Take Arizona (10*). |
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08-09-23 | Padres -115 v. Mariners | 1-6 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners took the opener of this series by a 2-0 score last night as starter Logan Gilbert tossed a one-hit gem over seven innings. I look for the Padres to answer back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Yu Darvish against rookie Emerson Hancock, who will be making his first start above Double-A ball for the Mariners. Darvish hasn't posted eye-popping numbers this season, logging a 4.10 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 114 1/3 innings of work. With that being said, he has generally been pitching well lately, sandwiching four solid outings around a rocky home start against the Pirates. The veteran right-hander checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five trips to the hill, lasting at least six innings in four of those five outings as well. He's made two recent starts against the Mariners (one in 2021 and one in 2022), allowing just one earned run over 15 innings of work. Emerson Hancock has been fast-tracked to the Mariners starting rotation out of necessity only after impressive rookie Bryan Woo was put on the I.L. Hancock's results at Double-A Arkansas have been a bit of a mixed-bag this year as he has posted a 4.32 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Note that 128 of the 411 (31.1%) batters has has faced have managed to reach base. The Mariners bullpen does hold the edge in terms of recent form but it's worth noting that the Padres relief corps has mostly been getting called into action in mop-up duty lately (three of their four losses over their last five games have come by five runs or more). As a whole this season, Seattle's 'pen has been only marginally better (3.51 ERA and 1.26 WHIP compared to 3.93 ERA and 1.28 WHIP entering last night's action). Finally, we'll note that the Mariners are in uncharted territory, so to speak, having won six games in a row. Their previous season-long winning streak lasted only four games. The Padres have lost three straight contests. They haven't dropped more than three games in a row since a six-game skid from June 24th to 30th. Take San Diego (8*). |
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08-08-23 | Yankees -145 v. White Sox | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
American League Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees were stymied by White Sox ace Dylan Cease in the opener of this series last night, suffering a 5-1 defeat - their second straight loss. The White Sox have now won three games in a row on the heels of a five-game losing streak. I look for that run to end on Tuesday. Clarke Schmidt will take the ball for the visiting Yankees. He got off to a miserable start this season after pitching well predominantly out of the bullpen in his rookie campaign a year ago. The good news is, he's turned it around over the last couple of months and has proven to be an effective starter for the Yanks, lowering his FIP to 4.33 and his WHIP to 1.30. I do think we'll continue to see some positive regression in terms of his hits and home runs allowed, noting he gave up 2.1 fewer hits per nine innings and 0.5 fewer home runs per nine innings last year (albeit with a smaller sample size). Behind Schmidt is a Yankees bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 2.23 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted 14 saves while blowing only five on the road this season. That's in stark contrast to the White Sox 'pen, which entered last night's action with just 10 saves converted and 13 blown at home this season, logging a collective 4.83 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Chicago will give Touki Toussaint another turn in the starting rotation on Tuesday. His results have been mixed. Case in point, he struck out nine Rangers opposing Max Scherzer last time out but also gave up four earned runs on five hits, two home runs and four walks over 5 1/3 innings. Toussaint has made it through the sixth inning just once in six starts this season. Take New York (10*). |
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08-08-23 | Twins v. Tigers +106 | 0-6 | Win | 106 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Minnesota at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins delivered a lopsided 9-3 victory to open this series last night as they notched their fifth straight win. The Tigers haven't dropped consecutive games against Minnesota since last year, holding their own over the last nine meetings in this series. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday. Sonny Gray will get the start for Minnesota. He continues to pitch well with a sub-3.00 FIP on the season but he's been anything but untouchable, noting that he has given up 18 earned runs over his last five starts covering a span of 30 2/3 innings of work. The Tigers have already seen Gray once this season, chasing him after four innings in an 8-4 victory back on June 15th. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Detroit on Tuesday. After struggling through his first two starts this season, Rodriguez has now held 11 of his last 14 opponents to two earned runs or less. He checks in with a 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this season with the Tigers winning four of his seven starts at Comerica Park. While the Twins bullpen holds a slight edge in terms of current form there's not much separating the two relief corps this season. If anything, the Twins have had a tougher time closing out games with 26 saves converted and 21 blown compared to the Tigers 25 saves converted and 16 blown. Take Detroit (8*). |
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08-07-23 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Rangers are coming off a shutout victory against the Marlins yesterday as they wrapped up a series sweep in the process. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 with the Rangers coming off a shutout win this season with those contests totalling an average of 15.3 runs. Dane Dunning will take the ball for Texas on Monday. He's coming off a masterful performance against the White Sox, allowing just one earned run while striking out 11 over 7 2/3 innings. The issue I see here is that Dunning will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). His strikeouts have actually been down this year as he's averaging just 6.2 per nine innings and has logged a rather pedestrian 4.13 FIP. In his three previous starts here in Oakland, the A's have plated 6, 3 and 6 runs. Ken Waldichuk will get another turn in the starting rotation for Oakland. He's quite simply been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, posting a 5.64 FIP and 1.74 WHIP in 88 1/3 innings of work. The Rangers have seen him twice since the start of last season, plating eight earned runs in 10 innings. While Texas' bullpen has been sharp lately, it still checks in having converted only seven saves while blowing nine on the road this season, recording a collective 4.66 ERA and 1.32 WHIP along the way. Meanwhile, the A's relief corps has posted an inflated 6.12 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven games and have converted only eight saves while blowing 10 at home this season (entering yesterday's contest). Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-23 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan OVER 44 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Sunday. The RedBlacks are coming off an incredibly low-scoring game against the punchless Tiger-Cats last week while the Roughriders are fresh off consecutive 'under' results after the 'over' had gone 4-1 in their first five games this season. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair on Sunday in Regina. Ottawa has gotten a spark from QB Dustin Crum but we saw some regression from its offense last week. That wasn't unexpected as its opponent, Hamilton, was seeing Crum for the second time this season. The Riders won't have the benefit of that first-hand knowledge as they face the RedBlacks for the first time this season on Sunday. Note that while Saskatchewan did score only 13 points in last week's defeat against Toronto, it did move the football as well as it has all season in that contest. One thing is for sure, the Riders are going to let it fly with Mason Fine at quarterback. Keep in mind, the last time we saw the Riders play at home they scored 31 points in a wild two-point defeat against Calgary. Ottawa on the other hand is just one game removed from a 43-41 overtime victory against those same Stampeders. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 32-15 with Saskatchewan playing at home off consecutive 'under' results with that situation producing an average total of 53.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-23 | Nationals v. Reds -145 | 6-3 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Washington at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Reds have inexplicably fallen on hard times lately, dropping five straight games including the first two of this three-game set against the Nationals. They're hoping a fresh face can help turn their fortunes around as Lyon Richardson gets his first big league start on Sunday. Richardson has excelled at the minor league level, logging a 1.86 ERA while striking out 81 batters and walking only 23 in 58 innings of work this season. The Nationals bats have come alive in this series but this is still a team that averages only 4.2 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. The fact that Washington will be sending Jake Irvin to the hill should help the Reds cause as well. They saw Irvin back on July 3rd, recording a 3-2 victory in Washington while producing three earned runs over six innings. Irvin wasn't really fooling anyone on that day as he struck out only three Reds batters. On the season, Irvin owns a 5.34 FIP and 1.43 WHIP. While the Nats are a perfect 3-0 in Irvin's last three outings, all three of those starts came at home. He has posted a 4.95 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four road starts this season. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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08-06-23 | White Sox v. Guardians UNDER 9 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 12:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, fight-filled, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Jesse Scholtens will get his fourth start for the White Sox this season. His last outing was his best one by far as he allowed just one earned run over six innings in a 2-0 loss in Texas. While Scholtens' 4.61 FIP leaves a lot to be desired, he has logged a respectable 1.23 WHIP in 44 big league innings this season, allowing just 55-of-179 batters he has faced to reach base. Xzavion Curry has shifted from a bullpen role to a starting one for the Guardians, albeit as more of an 'opener' than anything else. He didn't have his best stuff but still limited these same White Sox to only one earned run over three innings in a 3-0 defeat last week. Similar to Scholtens, he owns a less than impressive 4.34 FIP but a solid 1.19 WHIP in 59 innings of work this season. As far as the two bullpens go, both have been a mixed-bag this season but we are talking about two relatively fresh relief corps having worked less than 400 total innings. Take the under (8*). |
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08-05-23 | Montreal v. Hamilton +3 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Tiger-Cats bounced back with a win in Ottawa last week, as did the Alouettes as they got past Calgary by a touchdown. Here, I look for Hamilton to get its revenge for an earlier 38-12 beatdown at home against the Als earlier this season. The Ti-Cats defense stepped up as expected in a tough road environment last week and I’m confident they can do so again with Montreal dealing with a cluster of injuries on the offensive side of the football. I haven’t been all that high on Als QB Cody Fajardo and certainly not away from home with a depleted supporting cast. On the flip side, the Ti-Cats will be without QB Bo Levi Mitchell after he excelled last week. The good news is they’re accustomed to playing without him. A dialed-back offensive gameplan may actually serve them well against a middling Als defense. While I can understand the logic behind Montreal being favored in this spot that doesn’t mean I agree with it. Take Hamilton (8*). |
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08-05-23 | Nationals v. Reds -1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Reds blew a late 3-1 lead and ended up dropping a 6-3 decision in extra innings last night. I look for them to bounce back behind impressive rookie Andrew Abbott on Saturday afternoon. Abbott did struggle in his most recent outing but prior to that had held his last three opponents to just two earned runs in 20 innings of work. On the season he owns a 3.90 FIP and 1.03 WHIP. His counterpart on Saturday will be Joan Adon. He's made just two big league appearances this season and they haven't gone well as he has allowed three earned runs on two home runs in only five innings of work. In 64 2/3 innings with Washington last year he logged a 5.11 FIP and 1.78 WHIP. While the Nationals bullpen has pitched better lately and certainly in last night's game, they entered this series sporting a lofty 6.23 ERA and 1.59 WHIP on the road this season. Take Cincinnati -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-04-23 | Toronto v. Calgary +8.5 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Toronto at 9 pm et on Friday. The Argonauts remain undefeated at 6-0 SU and ATS on the season while the Stampeders have been a major disappointment going 2-5 SU and ATS. So it might be a bit perplexing but Calgary could very well be happy to see Toronto on Friday. The Stamps are an incredible 15-2 in the last 17 meetings in this series and haven't lost a game by more than six points against the Argos since way back in 2012. Also note that while things haven't gone well for Calgary so far this season it can take solace in the fact that it is on a long-term 56-33 ATS run in the month of August. It also checks in 13-4 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.0 points in that situation. The Argos are currently dealing with a cluster of injuries on their offensive line. Despite winning 31-13 against Saskatchewan last week, Toronto completed just 13-of-21 passes for 122 yards. Meanwhile, Calgary dropped a 25-18 decision in Montreal last Sunday but limited the Alouettes to 16-of-29 passing for 158 yards. Take Calgary (10*). |
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08-04-23 | Diamondbacks +117 v. Twins | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Diamondbacks are reeling off three straight losses against the division rival Giants in San Francisco. I look for them to bounce back on Friday as they hand the ball to Merrill Kelly against Bailey Ober of the Twins. Kelly has made two starts since returning from the injured list due to a blood clot in his calf. His first outing went smoothly but he ran into some trouble early before settling in against the Mariners last time out. All told, Kelly has recorded a 3.81 FIP and 1.16 WHIP this season. You would have to go back to early April to find the last time the D'Backs lost consecutive Kelly starts, a fate they'll look to avoid here. Behind Kelly is an Arizona bullpen that has posted a collective 2.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. Bailey Ober has given up 11 earned runs in 16 innings over his last three outings. He does own a 3.76 FIP and 1.04 WHIP on the campaign but the Twins are just an even 5-5 in his 10 home starts. Minnesota's bullpen has recorded a collective 5.11 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just 11 saves while blowing 10 at home this season. Take Arizona (8*). |
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08-04-23 | Nationals v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati -1.5 runs over Washington at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Reds got their series in Chicago off to a fine start but proceeded to drop the next three games with none of those contests being particularly close. I do like their chances of bouncing back as they return home to host the Nationals on Friday. Washington is admittedly playing well right now and probably would have liked to have gotten right back on the field yesterday but had an off day instead. The starting pitching matchup favors Cincinnati here as it sends a steadily-improving Graham Ashcraft to the hill against Pat Corbin of the Nationals. Ashcraft has been pitching well, holding opponents to two earned runs or less in six straight starts. He owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his last three outings. Pat Corbin on the other hand has struggled, allowing 12 earned runs over his last 17 1/3 innings of work, covering a span of three starts. He's seen his FIP rise to 4.99 and his WHIP to 1.53. While the Nationals bullpen has pitched better than that of the Reds lately, there's no question Cincinnati's relief corps has been better this season, particularly at home where it has recorded a collective 3.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Take Cincinnati -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-04-23 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 8-0 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as the Braves and Cubs kick off their three-game series at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon. Max Fried will make his long-awaited return to the Braves starting rotation after an extended stint on the I.L. He got in four minor league outings and something seemed to be amiss as he allowed 18-of-48 batters he faced to reach base (including two home runs), recording a 3.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 12 innings of work. We know Fried is an elite starting pitcher, I'm just not sure this is an ideal matchup to ease back in to, noting the Cubs bats have been red hot, plating 46 runs over their last four games alone. The Braves are coming off a 12-run explosion of their own yesterday and should feast on Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks. The veteran right-hander has pitched reasonably well lately and owns a 3.96 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the season. Note, however, the Braves have torched him for 7, 7 and 6 earned runs in his three starts against them since the start of 2021. The Braves bullpen has been a mess lately, logging a collective ERA approaching six over the last seven games. Meanwhile, Chicago's relief corps has been a mixed-bag this season, converting just 10 saves while blowing five and recording a collective ERA around four at home. Take the over (8*). |
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08-03-23 | A's v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen a pair of relatively high-scoring games to open this series with the Dodgers doing most of the heavy lifting at the plate. Here, I expect the A's bats to get in on the action as well. J.P. Sears will get the start for Oakland. While he does own an impressive 1.05 WHIP this season, his FIP sits at a disappointing 5.19. Expect the Dodgers to feast on the left-hander, noting that he is allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings this season. Over his last three starts alone, Sears has been tagged for six long balls. Dodgers starter Julio Urias has been in the mix for the N.L. Cy Young Award in each of the last two seasons but certainly isn't in the conversation this year. Urias checks in sporting a 4.78 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. Since tossing six shutout innings against the Mets in New York back on July 14th, Urias has made two starts, yielding 16 hits and 11 earned runs in just 11 innings of work. While the A's may appear to be a manageable opponent, I'm not ready to put my faith in Urias or a Dodgers bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.94 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Speaking of bullpens, the A's relief corps entered Wednesday having logged a 6.08 ERA and 1.65 WHIP on the road this season. Take the over (8*). |
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08-03-23 | BC v. Winnipeg OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-50 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
West Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. After a low-scoring CFL slate last week (all four games stayed 'under' the total) that featured plenty of sloppy play, I look for two of the league's best teams to put on a show in Winnipeg on Thursday. B.C. will welcome back standout WR Dominique Rhymes. The Lions didn't need to keep their foot on the gas for four quarter last week as they cruised to a 27-0 win over lowly Edmonton - their second shutout victory over the Elks this season. There's no denying B.C.'s defense has been outstanding this season but this is a big revenge spot for the Blue Bombers, at home no less, after suffering a 30-6 beatdown here on June 22nd. The Bombers defense just hasn't been its dominant self for much of this season. They earned a reprieve of sorts last week by facing the aforementioned winless Elks but have given up 27 points or more in four of their seven games this season. Note that each of their last three opponents have rushed for 100+ yards. As we saw last week, give the Lions any sort of running room and that only serves to open up their passing game. The 'under' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series. We haven't seen four consecutive matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total since 2008-2010. Take the over (10*). |
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08-03-23 | Jets v. Browns OVER 33.5 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 8 pm et on Thursday. We're working with at typically low total for this year's Hall of Fame Game in Canton on Thursday - no surprise at all given neither team is expected to give their starters any sort of run in this contest. I'm confident both offenses can move the football and ultimately put some points on the board though. The Jets will give Zach Wilson the start at quarterback but we're more likely to see plenty of Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler, with the latter proving to be a big-time preseason producer last year (five touchdowns and one interception). Kellen Mond will start for Cleveland and likely play the better part of the first half. He's got a lot to prove after getting cut by the Vikings prior to last season. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will take over in the second half and I'm confident the former UCLA star can make some plays against what is likely to be Jets second and third-string defensive units. Dual-threat quarterbacks have long enjoyed considerable preseason success and Thompson-Robinson should be next in line for that role for Cleveland. We don't need anything close to resembling a shootout to get 'over' this total. Remember, last year's Hall of Fame Game saw the Jaguars produce only 11 points and that contest still found its way 'over'. Take the over (8*). |
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08-03-23 | Twins -136 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have split the first two games of this series and I expect the Twins to bounce back from last night's lopsided defeat to take the finale on Thursday. Sonny Gray will take the ball for Minnesota. The All-Star is quietly enjoying a fine campaign having logged a 2.93 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. He's been efficient but hasn't been overly taxed in recent starts, working 6, 6, 5 2/3, 6 and 6 innings over his last six outings. Matthew Liberatore gets the call-up to make Thursday's start for the Cardinals. He's a good example of a starting pitcher that has managed to climb the minor league ranks but has never been able to translate that success over to the bigs. Last year, he logged a 5.02 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work. With a similar sample size of 32 innings this season, Liberatore has arguably been worse, posting a 4.68 FIP and 1.84 WHIP. Neither bullpen has been overly reliable lately but the difference is, the Cards relief corps has been bad for the majority of the season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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08-02-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays are off to a rough start to this series. In fact, they've now lost three games in a row including an absolute beatdown in Hyun-Jin Ryu's return to the starting rotation last night. While I haven't always been high on Wednesday's starter Yusei Kikuchi, there's no denying he's pitched well this season and particularly of late. Kikuchi enters Wednesday's start having allowed just two earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of 16 innings of work. Here at home, the Blue Jays have won six of his nine starts as Kikuchi has logged a solid 3.69 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. His counterpart on Wednesday, rookie Grayson Rodriguez, is coming off a fine outing of his own, shutting the Yankees out over 6 1/3 innings. It's not as if he had baffling stuff on that night as he recorded just four strikeouts along the way. Note that the Orioles bullpen has suffered some regression lately, posting a 1.57 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). On the road this season, Baltimore has converted 18 saves but has also blown 14. Take Toronto (10*). |
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08-02-23 | Rays v. Yankees -105 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Yankees losses have been few and far between with ace Gerrit Cole on the mound this season. They've only lost consecutive starts of his twice on the campaign - a fate they'll look to avoid after dropping a 1-0 decision against Baltimore in his most recent outing. Cole checks in sporting terrific numbers having logged a 3.25 FIP and 1.05 WHIP on the season. Over his last three starts, Cole sports a 1.40 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. The Rays will counter with their own ace in Shane McClanahan. He hasn't looked quite the same since returning from injury, recording a solid 3.34 ERA but a lofty 1.33 WHIP (by his own standards) over his last three starts. Since striking out seven or more batters in five of six starts during a stretch back in May, McClanahan has topped out at six K's over his last eight outings, reaching that number only twice along the way. With the bullpens more or less a wash (in fact the Yankees bullpen has performed better than that of the Rays lately), we'll confidently back the Yankees to avoid a fourth straight defeat here. Take New York (8*). |
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08-02-23 | Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 11-1 | Push | 0 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're working with a typically high posted total in the finale of this three-game series on Wednesday afternoon. I believe it will prove too high. Padres starter Joe Musgrove is as consistent as they come having posted a 3.54 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 17 starts covering 97 1/3 innings this season. He struggled in a couple of starts against the Rockies last season but will facing a much different looking lineup this time around. Note that this will be his first outing against Colorado this year and he still owns a career 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in eight previous starts in this matchup. Kyle Freeland will counter for the Rockies. He should be happy to be facing the Padres, noting that he's held them to just one earned run in 11 innings in two previous starts against them this season. Freeland has been a much better pitcher in the daytime this year, logging a 3.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in nine afternoon outings. Of course, the Rockies bullpen is always a concern but the Padres have excelled at the back-end of games lately, with their 'pen sporting a collective 2.01 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night's game). Take the under (8*). |
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08-01-23 | Red Sox +110 v. Mariners | 6-4 | Win | 110 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Sox have now lost three games in a row but all three of those contests could have gone either way. I say that even as they dropped last night's game by a 6-2 score. That was a 1-1 tie until the Mariners broke things open in the eighth inning. Here, I look for Boston to bounce back behind Brayan Bello, who has quietly been one of their steadiest starters this season. Bello checks in with a 4.43 FIP and 1.21 WHIP on the campaign. I like how he's held his composure on the road, recording a 1.14 WHIP in 41 1/3 innings of work. His lone previous outing against the Mariners was a good one as he held them to one earned run over five innings in a 12-3 victory back on May 17th. Rookie Bryce Miller has lost his way over his last several starts for the Mariners. Note that he worked at least six innings in seven of his first nine starts this season but has now failed to last six frames in five straight outings. I'm willing to chalk up the Mariners late inning explosion against the Red Sox bullpen as an anomaly. Boston was down a number of key relief arms in that contest but should be back on track on Tuesday thanks to Nick Pivetta's lengthy start last night. Note that prior to last night's game, the Sox 'pen had logged a 1.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Boston (8*). |
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08-01-23 | Mets -144 v. Royals | 6-7 | Loss | -144 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mets were sellers at the trade deadline so you could say the pressure is off now in what amounts to another lost season in Queens. I do think we see the Mets bounce back on Tuesday as they open a series in Kansas City. Jose Quintana will take the ball for New York. Few expected much from the veteran when he joined the starting rotation in late July but he has picked up right where he left off last season, allowing just four earned runs in 11 innings of work. In fact, you would have to go back 18 starts to find the last time Quintana allowed more than two earned runs in a start. Zack Greinke has been a disaster for the Royals this year. He owns a 5.06 FIP in 101 2/3 innings of work and things certainly haven't gotten any better lately as he has been tagged for 12 earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of just 14 1/3 innings. The Mets bullpen has been worlds' better than that of the Royals over the last seven games and Kansas City's relief corps has combined to convert just five saves while blowing nine at home this season. Take New York (8*). |
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08-01-23 | Rays v. Yankees +106 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees dropped their second straight game in lopsided fashion last night as they couldn't get anything going against Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as they face Zach Eflin for the second time this season. Their first go-round against the right-hander saw them plate four earned runs over six innings but ultimately drop an 8-7 decision. That was in St. Petersburg. I still believe Yankees starter Carlos Rodon is a 'buy-on' pitcher down the stretch, even though he's struggled mightily with his command since returning to the starting rotation. The good news is, the Yankees did manage to win his most recent start as he worked around three walks to allow just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in a 3-1 victory over the Mets. In two home starts this season, Rodon has yielded only three earned runs in 11 innings. That's in stark contrast to Eflin's road numbers as he has logged a 5.36 ERA and 1.28 WHIP away from home. Take New York (8*). |
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07-31-23 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Red Sox have seen each of their last six games stay 'under' the total while the Mariners are coming off a three-game series in Arizona in which all three contests played to the 'under' as well. I look for a different story to unfold on Monday. Nick Pivetta will get his first start since May for Boston. The veteran right-hander has proven effective pitching in long relief and owns a 4.14 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 81 innings of work this season. With that said, I do think there's regression on the way noting that he has held opposing hitters to just 6.8 hits per nine innings this season. That's a career-low by a considerable margin. You would have to go back to 2020 to find the last time he allowed fewer than 8.0 hits per nine innings. George Kirby will counter for Seattle. He has allowed at least five earned runs in four of his last 11 starts and that's notable as he had done so just once over his previous 12 outings. Perhaps we're seeing signs of a young starter hitting the wall as he approaches his career high in innings pitched and we have yet to flip the calendar page over to August. Kirby did get the better of the Red Sox in a 10-1 Mariners victory at Fenway Park earlier this season. However, Boston has plated nine earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in three looks at Kirby since the start of last season. His three career starts against Boston have totalled 18, 13 and 12 runs. The Red Sox bullpen has been taxed lately and yesterday's extra innings affair in San Francisco didn't help matters. The Mariners relief corps enters this series in much better shape but I'm confident the Boston bats can do enough damage against Kirby to help this total along. Take the over (8*). |
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07-30-23 | Calgary v. Montreal OVER 47.5 | 18-25 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Montreal at 7 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Sunday's contest riding two-game 'over' streaks and I anticipate a similar result here. Calgary has posted a perfect 7-0 'over' record when coming off a non-conference game over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 61.7 points. The Als, despite having lost three games in a row, did quietly get their offense back on track before their bye week, scoring 27 points in a losing effort against Toronto. Here, they'll face a Stamps defense that is currently dealing with a number of key injuries in their secondary. In four matchups in this series going back to 2019, Montreal has produced 40, 21, 22 and 27 points. Calgary has scored 28 or more points in three of the last four meetings. Take the over (8*). |
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07-30-23 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks +102 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Diamondbacks evened this series at a game apiece with a come-from-behind 4-3 victory last night and I look for them to take the finale on Sunday as well. Luis Castillo has been somewhat snake-bitten for the Mariners, going winless in his last three starts despite pitching well. Run support has been an issue and I suspect it will be again on Sunday. On the flip side, the D'Backs have feasted on right-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Arizona will hand the ball to Merrill Kelly as he makes his second start since returning from the I.L. with a blood clot in his calf. He looked no worse for wear in his first outing back, allowing just one earned run on four hits over six innings against the Cardinals. On the season, he owns a 3.78 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. With last night's loss, the Mariners fell to 24-26 on the road this season. This is a key spot for the D'Backs as they'll hit the road for a seven-game trek following this matinee affair. Take Arizona (8*). |
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07-29-23 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night, despite a high-scoring start as the Mariners jumped ahead 4-0 in the first frame and cruised to a 5-2 victory. I think we'll see the Diamondbacks bounce back and help the total along on Saturday as they send Brandon Pfaadt to the hill against Bryan Woo. Pfaadt is a highly-touted prospect and has enjoyed some success at the minor league level. That hasn't translated to success in the majors, however, as he checks in sporting a 7.64 FIP and 1.64 WHIP in seven starts spanning 31 2/3 innings. He hasn't been able to keep the ball in the yard, allowing a whopping 3.4 home runs per nine innings. It's been a similar story for Mariners starter Bryan Woo lately. He's been tagged for four home runs in his last two outings. It seems the book may be out on Woo following a solid stretch as he has allowed 10 earned runs on 12 hits and four walks over his last two starts covering a span of 9 1/3 innings. Neither bullpen has been all that impressive. In the case of the D'Backs, their 'pen has logged an 8.37 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just 10 saves while blowing eight at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-29-23 | Saskatchewan v. Toronto OVER 47.5 | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Saskatchewan and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. Last year's Touchdown Atlantic game featured this same matchup with Toronto prevailing by a 30-24 score on a late pick-six. We're working with a slightly higher posted total than we saw in last year's game but I don't think enough of an adjustment has been made. The Roughriders are coming off a miserable offensive showing last week, dropping a 19-9 decision on the road against arguably the league's best defense in B.C. That was Mason Fine's first start for the team this season after Trevor Harris went down to injury. The good news is, Fine threw for just shy of 300 yards and is in his third year with the Riders. It's time for him to step up and show off his arm, keeping in mind he ran a high-powered offense effectively in his days with North Texas in the college ranks. The Argonauts are missing a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football. That didn't hurt them last week as they benefited from facing a punchless Tiger-Cats offense that was down to its third-string quarterback. On the flip side, Toronto's offense excelled once again, at one point scoring three touchdowns in an 18-minute stretch in the first half. The biggest question here is probably whether Saskatchewan can do its part offensively to help this total along. Note that the Riders have shown a solid scoring floor in this particular matchup, putting up at least 21 points in 11 consecutive meetings. Take the over (10*). |
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07-28-23 | Hamilton +2 v. Ottawa | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The RedBlacks have reeled off consecutive wins in thrilling fashion with both of those victories coming in overtime against the Blue Bombers and Stampeders. Here, I look for Ottawa's run of success to come to an end against the division rival Tiger-Cats, however. A big part of the RedBlacks recent success has been QB Dustin Crum's performance on the ground. The good news for the Ti-Cats is that they've already seen him as he came on in relief back on July 8th - a game Hamilton held on to win by a 21-13 score. You would have to go all the way back to November of 2018 to find the last time Ottawa defeated Hamilton. Tonight, the Ti-Cats will finally welcome back prized offseason acquisition QB Bo Levi Mitchell after he suffered an injury in their season-opener. Noting that the RedBlacks are a long-term 4-13 ATS when playing at home after winning two of their last three games, outscored by an average margin of 5.6 points in that situation, we'll back the visitors here. Take Hamilton (8*). |
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07-28-23 | Angels +172 v. Blue Jays | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. It's going to take quite an effort to take down the Angels right now as they're playing about as well as any team in baseball, winners of eight of their last nine games overall. Newly-acquired Lucas Giolito will make his debut for Los Angeles on Friday. You have to imagine he's extremely pleased to get out of Chicago where the White Sox have been an absolute disaster. Giolito won't have to be an ace for the Halos but he does join the team pitching reasonably well, having allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four outings. Behind Giolito is an Angels bullpen that has been lights out lately, logging a collective 2.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the last seven games. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto on Friday. There's no denying he's pitched well this season, for the most part at least. He has had a tendency to have breakdowns, as we saw in his most recent start when he was tagged for four home runs against the Mariners. I simply feel he's going to have his hands full with an Angels lineup that has suddenly clicked, producing seven or more runs in seven of their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays bullpen has fallen on hard times, blowing four saves while converting only two over the last seven games alone, posting a collective 4.97 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over that stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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07-27-23 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring affairs on Wednesday, albeit with much different outcomes as the Guardians defeated the Royals 8-3 while the White Sox blew a big lead in a 10-7 loss to the Cubs. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Cleveland sends impressive rookie Tanner Bibee to the hill against Chicago's ace Dylan Cease. Bibee checks in sporting a 3.52 FIP and 1.19 WHIP on the season, allowing just 103-of-334 batters he has faced to reach base. After a bit of a rocky start to his big league career he has been baffling opposing hitters lately, giving up just 17 hits and one home run over his last five starts spanning 29 2/3 innings of work. Dylan Cease has been similarly effectively lately. He has held his last two opponents to just two earned runs on six hits over 11 innings. Over his last nine outings he has allowed only 43 hits and four home runs in 51 innings of work. Going back to 2021, Cease has been incredibly consistent recording FIP's of 3.41, 3.10 and 3.63 so far in 2023. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately, or this season for that matter. With that being said, both of tonight's starters have shown the ability to work effectively deep into ball games (Bibee has lasted at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts and Cease has done so in eight of his last nine outings), somewhat mitigating that concern. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are scoring runs in bunches right now but I look for tonight's starting pitching matchup to help reverse that trend. Justin Steele will get the start for the visiting Cubs. He continues to impress having recorded a 2.97 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season including a 2.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the road. Familiarity hasn't led to success for the Cards bats against the left-hander as he has limited St. Louis to six earned runs over 18 1/3 innings in three outings in this matchup this season. Behind Steele is a Cubs bullpen that did the job again last night after entering that game sporting a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over the last seven contests. Miles Mikolas will counter for the Cardinals. If there's been one constant in his big league career, it has been his success against the Cubs bats here at home. In eight previous outings against Chicago in St. Louis, Mikolas has allowed just eight earned runs in 50 innings of work. While there have been a few rough patches along the way, Mikolas checks in with a respectable 3.89 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the campaign. The less said about the Cardinals bullpen the better but I do think this total has been set high enough that any late inning pitching concerns from St. Louis are manageable. Take the under (8*). |
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07-26-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Sox took the opener of this brief two-game set in lopsided fashion last night. I look for the Braves to answer back on Wednesday. Spencer Strider will take the ball for Atlanta. He was cruising before giving up a pair of home runs (and four runs) in the seventh inning against Arizona last time out. The Braves still ended up rallying from a 4-1 deficit to win 7-5 on that day. While Strider's last two starts haven't been flawless by any means, he does check in having lasted at least six innings in six consecutive outings, striking out nine or more batters in all six of those contests. He has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, logging a 2.88 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. Here, he'll have the advantage of facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career. Note that the bullpen behind Strider should be in good shape after the Braves kept most of their key relief arms idle in last night's blowout defeat. It's a much different story for the Red Sox relief corps as they entered last night's action having worked a collective 36 innings over the last seven games and dealt with another heavy workload on Tuesday with John Schreiber working in an 'opener' role before Nick Pivetta gave them five innings. On the season, Boston has converted only 10 saves while blowing six here at home. Brayan Bello will get the start for the Red Sox on Wednesday. Like Strider, he's been bitten by the long ball recently, giving up six home runs in his last three starts. On the season, Bello owns a 4.36 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. The Braves will actually be getting their second look at the right-hander this season. They mustered only two earned runs on six hits over six innings against him back in May, but it's not as if they were completely baffled, striking out only five times. The Red Sox own a slight 6-5 edge in this series going back to 2021 and it's worth noting that all 11 matchups over that stretch were decided by two runs or more. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-26-23 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Off a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night (eight total runs), we'll call for a higher-scoring contest in Wednesday's rematch at Fenway Park. Note that the 'under' has now cashed in each of Atlanta's last three games. We haven't see the Braves post a four-game 'under' streak since May 30th to June 3rd. In a similar vein, the Red Sox are coming off consecutive 'under' results. We haven't seen three straight games involving Boston stay 'under' the total since June 28th to 30th. The 'under' has also cashed in two straight meetings in this series - the first time that's occurred over the last 11 matchups going back to 2021. The Braves bats are in line for a bounce-back performance here as they see Red Sox starter Brayan Bello for the second time this season. Also note that Boston's bullpen has been severely overworked lately, logging a collective 41 innings over the last seven games. The Red Sox will face a tough test at the plate against Braves ace Spencer Strider but I'm confident they can at least do enough to help this total along, noting that they check in averaging 5.7 runs per game at home this season and have plated at least four runs in 14 of their last 15 contests overall. Take the over (8*). |
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07-25-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -134 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona over St. Louis at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals snapped their three-game losing streak, taking the opener of this series in a 10-6 slugfest last night. That was a tough spot for the Diamondbacks as they limped home following a three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds, which came at the end of a long nine-game road trip that also took them to Toronto and Atlanta. While they'll be right back at it on Tuesday, I do expect the D'Backs to get a lift from the expected return of starter Merrill Kelly after he spent a month on the I.L. due to a blood clot in his leg. Kelly himself indicated that it was only a minor speedbump as he was able to continue to throw from day one. He dealt with a far more serious blood clot that led to the removal of a rib back in 2020. Of course, the right-hander is having a career year by most accounts, logging a 3.85 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while allowing a career-low 6.7 hits per nine innings and striking out a career high 9.3 batters per nine innings. Arizona's bullpen has struggled lately but I still feel this is a relief corps in fine shape down the stretch having worked only 353 2/3 innings collectively (entering last night's action) this season. Steven Matz will counter for St. Louis. He was sharp in his most recent outing against the Cubs last Thursday but will now be starting on short rest (four days) for a second straight turn in the rotation. On the season, Matz owns a 4.12 FIP and 1.47 WHIP, yielding 10.0 hits per nine innings. The Cards bullpen has been virtually on par with that of the D'Backs this season. Of note, they've had a tough time closing out games, blowing 20 saves including 11 on the road (compared to 14 saves converted). It's also worth mentioning that St. Louis hasn't had a day off since the All-Star break and checks in 1-5 after scoring double-digit runs in its previous game this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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07-24-23 | Mariners v. Twins +104 | 3-4 | Win | 104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Seattle at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners have managed to win three of their last four games including taking two of three against the Blue Jays over the weekend. I'm not convinced the needle is pointing up for Seattle right now, however. The Twins are coming off three-game sweep of the White Sox. They'll give Kenta Maeda the start on Monday while the Mariners hand the ball to Luis Castillo. Maeda has settled in nicely since returning from the injured list in late June, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. He was sharp against the Mariners last week as he held them to two earned runs on three hits while striking out nine over 6 1/3 innings of work. His counterpart on Monday, Luis Castillo, has looked very ordinary lately, allowing 21 earned runs over 47 2/3 innings in his last eight starts. Castillo has been tagged for exactly two home runs in five of his last six starts. The Twins should be happy to see him noting that the right-hander owns a 6.88 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in four career starts against them. While the Twins bullpen has thrived with a very manageable workload (23 innings) over the last seven games, recording a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, the Mariners relief corps has struggled, posting a collective 4.97 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings over that same stretch. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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07-23-23 | Ottawa v. Calgary OVER 44.5 | 43-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Calgary at 7 pm et on Sunday. The RedBlacks offense found its spark, albeit late in last week's incredible 31-28 overtime victory against Winnipeg. QB Dustin Crum has now enjoyed back-to-back breakout performances and if you follow the CFL regularly, you know that quarterbacks can come out of seemingly nowhere to take over an offense - especially dual-threat types like Crum. The Stampeders have endured an early season slump from QB Jake Maier and check in just 2-3 on the campaign. They did produce a thrilling 33-31 win over the Riders in Saskatchewan last Saturday, however, and I look for them to build off that performance here. It is worth mentioning that both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football. Note that the 'under' has cashed in the last four meetings in this series (including a 26-15 result in favor of Calgary earlier this season) - the longest such streak since way back in 2002-03. Here, we'll note that the Stamps have tended to get involved in barn-burners as a home favorite of a touchdown or less, with that situation producing an average total of just 50.5 points (and a point difference of just 0.5 points in their favor) over the last three seasons (13-game sample size). Take the over (8*). |
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07-23-23 | Rockies v. Marlins -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami -1.5 runs over Colorado at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Rockies have taken the first two games in this series, adding to the Marlins woes as Miami has now dropped eight straight contests. I look for the Marlins to rebound on Sunday afternoon as they send one of the most underrated starters in baseball to the hill in Jesus Luzardo against Ty Blach of the Rockies. Luzardo didn't have his best stuff last time out against St. Louis but still owns a 3.28 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season. Keep in mind, this is no one-off as Luzardo also logged a 3.12 FIP and 1.04 WHIP, albeit in only 18 starts, with the Marlins last season. Ty Blach is slated for his first start of the season for the Rockies. He has posted a 5.16 FIP and 1.95 WHIP in seven relief appearances. The Marlins own an advantage in terms of the two bullpens as well even if that hasn't been the case lately. Miami's relief corps did enter yesterday's action having worked 29 2/3 innings fewer collectively on the campaign and it's worth noting that the Rockies have used arguably their best reliever, Daniel Bard, in each of the last two games meaning he's likely unavailable on Sunday. Take Miami -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-22-23 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rays got back on track with a low-scoring victory over the Orioles last night and I look for them to pick up right where they left off on Saturday afternoon as they send ace Shane McClanahan to the hill against Grayson Rodriguez of the Orioles. Rodriguez had a nice stretch at the minor league level before getting the call back up to the big club earlier this week. He struggled in his first outing back with the O's, however, allowing four earned runs over five innings in a 6-4 loss to the Dodgers. Rodriguez will be at a disadvantage here as the Rays have already seen him once this season, scoring two earned runs on seven hits against him over 5 2/3 innings back in May. Shane McClanahan will be happy to see Baltimore in the opposing dugout as he owns a career 2.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in eight career starts against them. McClanahan is of course enjoying another tremendous campaign having recorded a 3.84 FIP and 1.13 WHIP in 102 innings of work. Behind McClanahan is a Rays bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games. While Tampa Bay has been struggling to find the win column it has had little to do with its relief corps. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-22-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers UNDER 9 | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Texas at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon. Rookie Bobby Miller has impressed in limited action for the Dodgers this season, posting a 3.59 FIP and 1.19 WHIP in 48 2/3 innings of work. While the Dodgers did drop his most recent start by a 2-1 score against the Mets in New York, he allowed just one earned run over 4 2/3 innings. In fact, in four road appearances this season, Miller owns a 2.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He is having a renaissance season of sorts, recording a 3.90 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 21 appearances spanning 99 innings. Dunning didn't fare well in his lone previous start against the Dodgers but that came back in 2021, when he logged a 1.44 WHIP in 117 2/3 innings. The two bullpens in this matchup have been terrific lately. Entering last night's action the Dodgers 'pen had recorded a collective 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games while the Rangers relief corps had logged a 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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07-21-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton +9.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Argos are off to a perfect 4-0 start to the season, both SU and ATS, and most project this as a layup on the road against the 2-4 Tiger-Cats on Friday. I'm not so easily convinced. Toronto has gotten off to a red hot start on the strength of forcing a whopping 13 turnovers. Of note, the Argos won the turnover battle by a whopping 6-0 margin two games back against B.C. but still won that game by 'only' 21 points (and it was an 11-point game before Toronto tacked on a pair of scores in the game's final minute-and-a-half). I actually think the fact that the Ti-Cats will be giving rookie Taylor Powell his first career start at quarterback might work in their favor here to some extent. While QB Matt Shiltz performed admirably in place of an injured Bo Levi Mitchell, he often tried to do too much, ultimately tossing just two touchdowns compared to four interceptions. Powell is more of a pocket-passer than Shiltz and I do think he can find some success with a somewhat conservative gameplan that will undoubtedly lean heavily on RB James Butler, who not only thrives as a runner but also as a receiver in the short passing game. The Ti-Cats defense has made positive strides over the last couple of weeks, first holding the RedBlacks out of the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half (and then for the rest of the game) two weeks ago before allowing only one touchdown in the game's first 48 minutes in Edmonton last week. While they'll undoubtedly be taking a step up in class on Friday, I do think the Argos offense is in line for some regression following four straight 32+ point performances to open the campaign. This is of course a revenge spot for the Ti-Cats after they dropped a 32-14 decision in Toronto earlier this season. Note that the Argos have now won three straight meetings in this series going back to last season and that's worth mentioning as they haven't won four straight matchups with the Ti-Cats since 2012-13. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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07-21-23 | Giants v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While the Giants have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total following an 11-10 slugfest in Cincinnati on Tuesday, the Nationals check in riding a six-game 'over' streak. I expect the latter to continue as San Francisco sends Alex Wood to the hill against Jake Irvin of the Nationals on Friday. Take a look up and down the Nats' lineup right now and you'll see a pretty dangerous group of hitters. I was of the opinion that Washington had a lineup built for Nationals Park entering this season but it hasn't worked out that way as the Nats' have actually produced far more offense on the road. With that being said, they do average 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching and they'll have the opportunity to face soft-tossing southpaw Alex Wood on Friday. Wood checks in sporting a 4.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP on the season, allowing a whopping 88-of-243 batters he has faced to reach base. He's had a tough time settling in due to injuries and here will be starting on just four days' rest after making his first start since June last Sunday. Wood isn't fooling many opposing hitters this season and has topped out at four strikeouts over his last four starts. Jake Irvin remains in the Nats' starting rotation out of necessity only as he has logged a 5.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Like Wood, Irvin has put far too many men on base, allowing 98-of-276 batters he has faced aboard. Perhaps a bigger issue for Washington right now is its sagging bullpen. Nationals relievers have combined to record an 11.92 ERA and 2.18 WHIP over the last seven games and are down a key arm in closer Hunter Harvey. While the Giants 'pen has held up well lately, it hasn't had a day off since the All-Star break and certainly falls in the 'overworked' category having logged well north of 400 innings collectively this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-20-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg -14.5 | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Edmonton at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Bombers defense should be in a foul mood after coughing up a late lead in last Saturday's overtime loss to the RedBlacks. It was a perplexing 31-28 final score as Winnipeg actually led that game 25-6 entering the fourth quarter. Ottawa's offense didn't reach the end zone until there were nine seconds remaining in the fourth quarter (the tide essentially turned on a Zach Collaros pick-six with less than three minutes remaining). This is an ideal 'get-right' spot for the Winnipeg defense as it faces an Edmonton squad that remains winless six games into the season. The Elks did score 29 points in last week's home loss to the Tiger-Cats. With that said, they didn't find the end zone until the third quarter and ultimately padded their numbers with a couple of meaningless scores (touchdown and a field goal) in the game's final minute when the result was already all but decided. The Elks defense has actually shown a pulse this season, particularly on the road where they've allowed just 22, 26 and 12 points with all three of those contests staying 'under' the total. This will be their first of three games against the Blue Bombers this season, however, and this hasn't been a favorable matchup by any means with Winnipeg scoring 37, 30, 26, 24 and 48 points in five meetings going back to the start of the 2021 season. To make matters worse, the Elks will be missing their leading tackler LB Nyles Morgan along with space-eating DL J-Min Pelley, both due to injuries suffered in practice this week. On the other side of the football, Edmonton has had a very low floor-low ceiling scoring combination in this matchup, producing only 22, 3, 16, 10 and 11 points in the last five meetings. Here, we'll note that the Elks are a woeful 4-12 ATS against the West Division over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 18.3 points in those matchups. Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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07-20-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Seattle at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. The first three games in this series have all gone 'over' the total with a two-run home run in the ninth inning doing the trick for the Twins last night. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale as Minnesota sends Pablo Lopez to the hill against George Kirby of the Mariners. Lopez is quietly having an All-Star season for the Twins, logging a 3.37 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He did get rocked by the A's in his most recent outing. Strange things can happen when pitchers make their first start following the All-Star break and I'm willing to give Lopez a mulligan for that poor showing. George Kirby hasn't suffered any sort of sophomore slump this season, recording a 3.49 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. Like Lopez, Kirby was also an American League All-Star selection. As I've noted previously, these two bullpens are well-positioned down the stretch with both only recently having eclipsed the 300-inning mark. Take the under (8*). |
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07-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | 5-7 | Win | 111 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Arizona at 12:20 pm et on Thursday. The Braves are reeling, losers of four games in a row and in danger of being swept by the Diamondbacks (who were just swept themselves in Toronto last weekend) on Thursday afternoon. I expect Atlanta to avoid that fate as they take their frustrations out on D'Backs ace Zac Gallen in this spot. Gallen has been a much different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, logging a 5.11 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 road outings. I can't help but think we might be seeing some fatigue out of the right-hander as he has topped out at five strikeouts or less in four of his last five starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 25 innings of work over that stretch. Since Gallen held the Braves to one hit over seven shutout innings in his first career start against them in 2021, he has been roughed up for 16 hits in just 11 2/3 innings in his last two outings in the series. Spencer Strider will counter for Atlanta. He wasn't sharp against the White Sox last weekend, allowing five earned runs in six innings in an eventual 6-5 loss. Keep in mind, he's just one start removed from shutting out the Rays over 6 1/3 innings. Atlanta's last eight wins with Strider on the hill have all come by at least two runs. That includes a 5-2 victory over these same D'Backs in Arizona back in the first week of June. While it hasn't mattered much so far in this series, the Braves bullpen does have an edge over that of the D'Backs, with Atlanta relievers logging a collective 3.58 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season (entering last night's action). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-19-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games between these two teams to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for the visiting Twins. While his overall numbers aren't anything special this season, he has been reasonably effective since returning from the I.L. in June, allowing six earned runs on only 15 hits over 20 innings of work. Note that he has certainly fared better on the road compared to at home this season, recording a 3.15 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in five starts away from home. Mariners ace Luis Castillo wasn't particularly sharp last time out against the Tigers but is just one start removed from allowing just one unearned run over seven innings in a tough assignment in Houston. Castillo has lived up to billing this season, logging a 3.93 FIP and 1.03 WHIP, recording a 2.78 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 12 home outings. The two bullpens remain well-positioned to succeed down the stretch with the Twins 'pen entering last night's action having logged just 312 1/3 innings collectively while the Mariners relief corps had worked only 307 2/3 innings. Seattle's 'pen did get roughed up last night but it's hard to fault a group that had recorded a collective 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over the previous seven games. Minnesota's relief corps entered last night's game sporting a 3.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-19-23 | Yankees -130 v. Angels | 3-7 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees are suddenly sliding having lost three games in a row entering Wednesday's series-finale against the Angels in Anaheim. I do think they have the right starter on the mound to end their skid in Carlos Rodon. The left-hander has made two starts since returning from the I.L., with mixed results. I do think we saw progress from Rodon in his most recent outing as he struck out six in just five innings in Colorado after recording only two K's in 5 1/3 innings in his season debut at home against the Cubs. Rodon should be pleased to be pitching here in Anaheim, where he's made two career starts, allowing just four earned runs in 15 2/3 innings of work. The Angels check in just 9-17 against left-handed starting pitching this season. Chase Silseth will get a spot start for Los Angeles, giving Shohei Ohtani an extra day of rest before likely starting on Friday against Pittsburgh. Silseth has yet to prove he can succeed at the big league level, despite finding plenty of success in the minors. In 18 2/3 innings of work this season he has posted a 5.87 FIP and 1.61 WHIP. Last year, Silseth logged 28 2/3 innings, recording a very similar 5.97 FIP and 1.57 WHIP. While the Angels bullpen held up just fine last night, it entered that contest sporting a collective 8.91 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven contests. While Los Angeles has posted consecutive victories, it hasn't won three games in a row since June 11th to 13th. Meanwhile, the Yankees haven't dropped four straight contests since June 14th to 18th. Take New York (8*). |
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07-19-23 | Yankees v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a pair of relatively low-scoring contests to open this series but I anticipate a much higher-scoring affair on Wednesday. The Angels are playing like a team that has nothing to lose right now, producing 5, 5, 13, 8, 4 and 5 runs over their last six games. They'll face a tough opponent in Yankees starter Carlos Rodon on Wednesday. While I do expect continued improvement from Rodon, he has given up six earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his first two starts since returning from the I.L. On the flip side, I'm confident the Yankees bats will wake up against the Angels pitching staff here. Chase Silseth will get the start for Los Angeles. His big league returns have not been good since breaking in with the Halos last year. In 47 1/3 career innings, Silseth has recorded a 5.93 FIP and 1.59 WHIP. Behind him is an overworked Angels bullpen that has logged a collective 8.40 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 30 innings over the last seven games. Speaking of struggling bullpens, the Yankees relief corps has posted a 6.43 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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07-18-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Mariners took the series-opener by a 7-6 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as Minnesota hands the ball to Bailey Ober against impressive rookie Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Ober has given up just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts with those two contests totalling just one and four runs. He owns a terrific 3.39 FIP and 0.97 WHIP at the big league level this season, picking up right where he left off following an early stint in the minors where he baffled opposing hitters. Ober has allowed just 83 of the 321 batters he has faced to reach base. Bryan Woo has been similarly difficult to reach base against, albeit with a smaller sample size to consider. He has allowed only 37-of-141 batters to reach base, logging a 3.08 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work. I like the way both bullpens are set up, noting that Twins relievers have worked a very reasonable 310 innings combined this season, posting a collective 3.63 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while the Mariners 'pen has logged only 303 2/3 innings while recording a 3.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (all numbers entering last night's action). Of course, the All-Star break isn't far in the rear-view mirror, helping both relief corps check in reasonably fresh this week. Take the under (10*). |
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07-18-23 | Yankees -105 v. Angels | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Angels prevailed in the opener of this series last night, handing the Yankees their second straight loss. I look for New York to bounce back on Tuesday as it sends Domingo German to the hill against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. German is of course just two starts removed from tossing a perfect game in Oakland. After getting predictably roughed up in his next start against Baltimore, he rebounded to hold the Cubs to just one earned run on one hit over six innings on July 9th. On the season, German has been an interesting study with a 4.63 FIP but a 1.07 WHIP. Opposing hitters certainly aren't getting a great read on the right-hander having compiled just 6.9 hits per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Sandoval as he has allowed 9.5 hits per nine innings, leading to a 3.96 FIP and 1.47 WHIP. His walks per nine innings allowed are up while his strikeouts are down considerably compared to last year. Behind Sandoval is an Angels bullpen that has suffered considerable regression lately, entering last night's action sporting a lofty 9.90 ERA and 2.23 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yankees 'pen has been in poor form as well but still owns a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only four blown on the road this season. Take New York (8*). |
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07-17-23 | Nationals v. Cubs -136 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -136 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Despite his recent struggles, I think this is the right spot to bring potential trade deadline piece Drew Smyly back to the starting rotation for the Cubs. He hasn't pitched since July 8th when he was rocked by the Yankees in the Bronx - his third straight poor outing. Still, we know the veteran left-hander is capable of much better and he should be happy to be facing the Nationals on Monday - a team he held to one earned run over seven innings in a 5-1 victory against earlier this season. In fact, for his career, Smyly owns a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in seven previous outings against Washington. It's a much different story for Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore against the Cubs. He checks in sporting a career 7.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, albeit in just two previous starts against Chicago. The Cubs have feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season, going 16-11 while averaging 5.6 runs per game. While Gore has managed to lower his walks and increase his strikeouts per nine innings compared to his rookie campaign last year, he's giving up far too many hits (9.2 per nine innings) and home runs (1.4 per nine innings). The Nationals bullpen has been a mess all season, compiling a 5.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and things don't figure to get better with Hunter Harvey, who had grabbed the closer's role converting nine saves, expected to hit the I.L. with a forearm injury. Cubs closer Adbert Alzolay was pressed into action yesterday in a non-save situation and didn't fare particularly well but that appearance was by design to get him loose after an idle stretch. I'm confident he can bounce back if called into the game on Monday. While the Cubs 'pen hasn't pitched particularly well lately, it is still well-positioned to succeed having logged only 21 2/3 innings collectively over the last seven games. At home this season, Chicago relievers have combined to post a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-16-23 | Tigers v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners will be happy to have rookie starter Bryce Miller back earlier than expected from a blister as he takes the ball against Reese Olson of the Tigers on Sunday. Seattle will of course be looking to avoid the sweep as it has suffered through a bit of a post-All-Star break hangover. Olson has pitched well for the Tigers, logging a 3.46 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings of work this season. I do wonder how long he can keep up the pace though, noting that he has held opponents to just 6.8 hits per nine innings. This coming after he yielded 10.3 hits per nine innings in 36 2/3 frames of work at the minor league (AAA) level earlier this year. At Toledo he had posted a 6.38 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Bryce Miller has impressed for the Mariners, entering this start sporting a 3.45 FIP and 0.95 WHIP having allowed just 58-of-231 batters he has faced to reach base. Behind Miller is a Mariners bullpen that had recorded a collective 1.12 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games entering last night's contest. The Tigers 'pen has posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with only 10 saves converted and eight blown on the road this season (also entering last night's action). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-15-23 | Calgary +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 84 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. While it's still early in the season, the Stampeders are in desperate need of a victory on Saturday to avoid a 1-4 hole that could potentially drop them eight points (four wins) back of the Blue Bombers and Roughriders at the top of the West Division. This is also a key revenge spot for Calgary after it dropped a 29-26 overtime decision against the Riders earlier in the campaign. Keep in mind, the Stamps were favored in that contest. They've fared much better as an underdog in this series in recent years, going 3-0-1 ATS the last four times they've caught points against the Riders, as is the case here. Saskatchewan has posted mixed results so far this season but has managed to win three of four games. Last week, the Riders won ugly, pulling out a 12-11 victory over the lowly Elks. Note that Saskatchewan didn't find the end zone until their was just over a minute remaining in that game. I didn't like what I saw from the Riders defense the last time they faced the Stamps as they couldn't make a 10-point lead stand up with less than a quarter remaining. Calgary was without key WR Luther Hakunavanhu in last week's disappointing 24-11 loss in Winnipeg but he is expected back for Saturday's game. QB Jake Maier can use all the weapons he can get at his disposal as he's endured somewhat of a sophomore slump so far this season. I do think this is a spot to 'buy low' with a Stamps squad that is better than its record indicates in my opinion. Note that Calgary is 15-4 ATS in all road contests over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.5 points, and also 32-17 ATS in the long-term picture when playing on the road off a division loss, as is the case here. Saskatchewan, meanwhile, has covered the spread only once in its last 11 home games against divisional foes, outscored by 5.9 points on average in that situation. Take Calgary (8*). |
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07-15-23 | Winnipeg -9.5 v. Ottawa | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Ottawa at 4 pm et on Saturday. The RedBlacks are just one game removed from their first victory of the season but they're going to be in tough moving forward as they're down to their fourth option at quarterback in Dustin Crum. He was the Ottawa offense, mostly with his legs, after taking over for an injured Jeremiah Masoli last week in Hamilton. I don't expect Crum to catch an elite Blue Bombers defense off guard with his running ability this week, however. There's a reason why the former Kent State standout wasn't able to overtake the likes of Nick Arbuckle or Tyrie Adams for the QB job earlier this season. Now with Arbuckle having proven ineffective and Adams and Masoli injured, it's Crum's time. I look for a 'baptism by fire' of sorts in his first start on Saturday. Winnipeg is rolling right now, fresh off back-to-back double-digit victories over Montreal and Calgary. Since suffering a humbling 30-6 home loss against B.C. on June 22nd, the Blue Bombers have allowed just one touchdown in their last eight quarters of action. On the flip side, Winnipeg has displayed a balanced offensive attack, running for 100+ yards in four of five games so far this season. While Ottawa's run defense has been stout this season, it has also benefited from facing a manageable schedule. The toughest ground game the RedBlacks have faced would be Calgary and they did so with the Stamps missing starter Ka'Deem Carey. In that contest, Stamps backup RB Dedrick Mills ran for 102 yards on 19 carries. This is Winnipeg's sweet spot as it has gone a perfect 6-0 in Weeks 5 through 9 going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.9 points along the way. Meanwhile, Ottawa checks in 0-8 ATS when returning home off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by 10.6 points on average in that spot. Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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07-15-23 | Red Sox v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as Boston rolled to an 8-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as the Red Sox send James Paxton to the hill against Marcus Stroman of the Cubs. Paxton is having a renaissance year of sorts, logging a 3.66 FIP and 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 56 innings of work (he had pitched just 1 1/3 innings over the last two seasons combined). Behind Paxton is a Red Sox bullpen that certainly needed the break as it had worked north of 40 innings collectively over the previous seven games. Still, the Red Sox 'pen owns a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season. Marcus Stroman struggled in his last few starts prior to the break but has still posted a 3.41 FIP and 1.09 WHIP on the campaign. I look for him to bounce back here noting that he has recorded a terrific 2.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this season. The Cubs bullpen had logged a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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07-14-23 | Toronto v. Montreal +5.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Alouettes were in an awful spot last Sunday as they travelled across the country to take on a Lions squad that had just suffered its first loss of the campaign in embarrassing fashion (QB Vernon Adams Jr. threw six interceptions) less than a week earlier. Montreal couldn't match B.C.'s intensity in a double-digit loss. That makes two straight defeats for the Als and that's worth noting as they've gone a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off consecutive losses over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 12.2 points in that situation. The Argos are off to a 3-0 start, scoring a whopping 120 points in the process. They've benefited from playing two of their three games at home with their lone road tilt coming against the 0-5 Elks. Note that Toronto did deliver a 34-27 victory in the most recent meeting between these East Division rivals last November but the Argos haven't posted back-to-back wins by more than a field goal against the Als since back in 2017. Incredibly, Toronto hasn't won a game by more than single point in Montreal since October of 2015. Take Montreal (10*). |
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07-14-23 | Padres v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Friday. In any other year, this would appear to be a starting pitching mismatch as Yu Darvish has been a Cy Young Award contender four times previously in his career while Christopher Sanchez is a relative unknown for the Phillies. The shoe has been on the other foot this season, however, as Darvish has struggled to the tune of a 4.03 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. I do think he can use the second half of the season of a restart of sorts. He should be happy to see the Phillies as he owns a career 2.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in nine career starts against them. Sanchez has been terrific in five starts this season, logging a 3.56 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just 26-of-99 batters he has faced to reach base. Behind Sanchez is a Phillies bullpen that has been elite this season, posting a collective 3.75 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 25 saves converted and only eight blown. The Padres bullpen hasn't been quite on the same level and struggled leading into the break. I do think that had something to do with their relief corps being overworked and the All-Star break should have served them well in that regard. Take the under (8*). |
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07-13-23 | Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks OVER 42.5 | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Edmonton at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Edmonton Elks are off to an unsurprisingly awful start to the season, losers of five games in a row heading into Thursday's matchup with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Edmonton could only muster 18 points in its last two games - both on the road - but I do think it made some progress offensively going back to QB Taylor Cornelius at quarterback in last week's ugly 12-11 defeat in Saskatchewan. In that contest, the Elks racked up 369 total yards, often moving the football down the field at will in what is usually a hostile environment in Regina. They ended up with little to show for it but I do think that changes back at home this week. Note that the last time we saw Edmonton play here it put up 31 points in a game that totalled 73 points against Toronto. It should be happy to see Hamilton noting that it has scored 23 and 29 points in two matchups between these two teams over the last two seasons. The Tiger-Cats scored only 21 points against a better-than-expected Ottawa defense last Saturday but did manage to make a late goal-line stand to earn their first win of the season. Note that Hamilton has displayed a rock solid scoring floor and a sky-high ceiling in this particular matchup in recent years, putting up at least 25 points in each of the last nine meetings while producing 38 points or more on three occasions over that stretch. The Elks are currently allowing a lofty 5.6 yards per rush and 8.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Hamilton hasn't been much better against the run, yielding 5.2 ypr and even worse against the pass, giving up a whopping 9.6 yppa. The 'under' is 4-1 in games involving Edmonton this season but it has yet to post three consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have yet to record back-to-back 'under' results and are of course coming off an 'under' last week against Ottawa. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 24-11 with the Elks listed as a home underdog of three points or less, leading to an average total of 55.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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07-09-23 | Braves v. Rays -112 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Atlanta at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Rays have now lost seven straight games including the first two contests in this series. I do expect them to finally snap their skid on Sunday as they send Zach Eflin to the hill against Bryce Elder of the Braves. Eflin has been terrific this season, logging a 3.09 FIP and 0.98 WHIP to go along with a 9-4 record - Cy Young Award-caliber numbers. He should be happy to be facing the Braves - an opponent he saw plenty of during his days pitching for the Phillies in the N.L. East. Note that Eflin owns a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 13 career outings against Atlanta. Bryce Elder is having an outstanding season for the Braves as well. With that being said, I do think there has been some reason for concern (I use that term loosely) noting that he has issued eight walks over his last three starts and is coming off an outing in which he struck out only one batter over 6 2/3 innings against the Guardians. The Rays offense has been completely out of sorts but we do know what their lineup is capable of, noting they still average 5.4 runs per game this season. The two bullpens are virtually a wash on the season. While the Braves relief corps has been more effective lately, it is worth noting that the Rays were able to keep most of their key relievers idle thanks to Saturday's lopsided result. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-08-23 | Mets v. Padres -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over New York at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night - their sixth straight victory. That win snapped the Padres three-game winning streak. Here, I look for San Diego to bounce back as it sends Blake Snell to the hill against David Peterson in a matchup of left-handers. Peterson has actually pitched reasonably well since returning to the big club. He still owns a 4.60 FIP and 1.67 WHIP on the season and didn't fare much better in his minor league sting, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 37 innings of work. Snell has really turned his season around after a shaky start to the campaign for the Padres. He enters this outing having allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last eight outings, lowering his FIP to 3.78 and his WHIP to 1.26. The two bullpens are virtually a wash on the season. While Mets relievers have pitched better over the last week or so, the Padres 'pen has still proven reliable here at home, boasting a 2.92 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -1.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Tiger-Cats will look to finally pick up their first win of the season on Saturday as they host the Redblacks. Ottawa will welcome back QB Jeremiah Masoli after he started the year on the injured list. I do wonder whether he's being rushed back with last week's starter, Tyrie Adams sidelined with a knee injury and few other viable options at the position. While the Redblacks did pick up their first win of the season last week, it came against the lowly Elks. Hamilton has faced an extremely difficult schedule to open the campaign, going up against Winnipeg, Toronto and Montreal - those three teams have lost just two games combined so far this season. Note that you would have to go back eight meetings in this series - all the way to 2018 - to find the last time Ottawa won a game in this series. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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07-08-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these division rivals last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in San Francisco. Connor Seabold will inexplicably get another turn in the Rockies starting rotation. He enters this start sporting a 5.98 FIP and 1.47 WHIP in 66 2/3 innings of work this season. Seabold remains in the Rockies rotation out of necessity only and he's not likely to get a lot of support from the Colorado bullpen, noting that it has been as overworked as any relief corps in baseball this season, logging a collective 359 2/3 innings while posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Over the last seven games those numbers rise to 6.67 and 1.59, respectively. Ryan Walker will get the start in an 'opener' role for the Giants. He's fared well in that role this season. But again, we're only talking about a cameo appearance. Like the Rockies relief corps, the Giants 'pen has also been overworked this season, logging north of 370 collective innings. San Francisco's relievers have held up reasonably well, but not so much lately as they've recorded a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last seven games. The Giants offense in particular has struggled lately but I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for both lineups on what should be a pleasant afternoon for hitters on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. Winnipeg | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Blue Bombers enter the first meeting between these West Division rivals this season having won three straight matchups in the series - matching their longest such streak in an eternity. Note that none of those victories came by more than a touchdown. To find the last time they've defeated the Calgary by more than a touchdown you would have to go back to 2019. Given they're north of a touchdown underdog in this one, the Stampeders may face long odds to break that series losing streak but I do expect them to at least give Winnipeg a serious fight on Friday. The Bombers benefited from four Alouettes turnovers but could only produce 17 points, albeit in a lopsided 14-point victory last week. They've now scored just 23 points over their last two games. Calgary turned in a rather sloppy performance the last time we saw it take the field two weeks ago as it turned the football over three times in an eventual 29-26 overtime loss to Saskatchewan. That loss came as a home favorite and that's notable as the Stamps are a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off an upset home loss against a division opponent over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also an identical 7-0 ATS when playing on the road off a loss over the same stretch, outscoring foes by 11.7 points on average in that spot. Take Calgary (8*). |
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07-07-23 | Cubs v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring affairs on Thursday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open a three-game Interleague series on Friday in the Bronx. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the visiting Cubs. He's had a miserable season for the most part but there's been some reason for encouragement over his last couple of outings. In those two starts, he struck out 14 while walking only one in 10 innings of work (he had struck out only 13 batters combined over his previous four outings). He continues to be bitten by the long ball far too often but perhaps a return to his old stomping ground at Yankee Stadium can help his cause. Note that Taillon logged a 3.94 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while making the majority of his starts in the Bronx as a member of the Yankees last season. He's capable of stepping up at times on the road, noting that he held the Dodgers to five scoreless innings in April and the Padres to one run over 5 2/3 innings in June, with both of those starts coming away from home. New York isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball right now and continues to strike out way too much while not walking nearly enough. Carlos Rodon will get his first start of the season for the Yankees following a lengthy stint on the injured list. Rodon looked no worse for wear in three minor league outings, posting a 0.84 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work, allowing only 6-of-38 batters he faced to reach base. You have to figure he's happy to be facing the Cubs in his first start back in the majors, noting that he's gone against them three times since the start of the 2021 season, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits over 17 1/3 innings of work (striking out 31 and walking only three). While the Yankees bullpen has been overworked this season, they do boast plenty of depth in that department and have held up reasonably well, logging a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP here at home (entering last night's action). Yankees relievers have converted 25 saves while blowing only 11. Chicago's 'pen has struggled for the most part with the exception of a few key arms. Interestingly, Cubs relievers seem better suited to 'pitching from behind' (trailing in games) rather than holding down leads. On a positive note, the Chicago relief corps entered yesterday's action having yet to eclipse the 300-inning mark this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-06-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan OVER 42.5 | Top | 11-12 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Saskatchewan at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Elks are coming off a low-scoring affair in Ottawa last week as they dropped a 26-7 decision in QB Jarrett Doege's first CFL start. They'll turn back to Taylor Cornelius at quarterback this week and it's the right move in my opinion after he had his best game of the season (before getting inexplicably benched in favor of Doege) two weeks ago against Toronto. Edmonton has indicated that it wants to simplify its offensive gameplan and play much faster this week. I think that means we'll see the Elks let Cornelius cut it loose in the passing game, noting that their ground attack has been virtually non-existent in the early going this season. This will be the second matchup between these two teams already this season after the Roughriders edged the Elks 17-13 in Edmonton back in Week 1. Note that the Elks have shown a much higher scoring floor here in Regina in recent years, scoring 24 and 26 points in two road matchups with the Riders going back to 2021 (those two games totalled 50 and 53 points). Of note, Taylor Cornelius was the Elks quarterback for both of those contests. The Elks defense has been alarmingly bad against the run this season, giving up 135, 119, 191 and 208 yards on the ground. I question how many second-and-long situations they'll be able to put the Riders in on Thursday. Saskatchewan QB Trevor Harris likely benefited most from the bye week as he was dealing with nagging hip and back injuries. Edmonton didn't give up a ton of yardage through the air in the last two games but that was largely game-script related as it dropped lopsided decisions against Toronto and Ottawa (the Argos and RedBlacks attempted only 23 and 20 passes, respectively). The Riders have aired it out 30+ times in all three games this season (their most recent contest did go go overtime). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-18 with the Elks seeking revenge for a loss in which they scored 14 points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 55.0 points. The 'over' is also 11-2 with the Riders playing at home off a win by three points or less, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 53.6 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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07-06-23 | Cubs v. Brewers -105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Cubs have taken the last two games in this series after dropping the opener on Monday. I look for Milwaukee to answer back in Thursday's series finale. Marcus Stroman will get the start for Chicago. We've seen some regression from the right-hander after a red hot start to the campaign as he has allowed eight earned runs on 13 hits over his last two outings spanning just nine innings of work. That's to be expected. Stroman has allowed only 6.7 hits per nine innings this season. He hasn't held opposing batters to fewer than 8.0 hits per nine innings since way back in his sophomore season in 2015 and that was an injury-shortened one (he worked only 27 innings). He has admittedly shut the door on the Brewers in three starts against them since the start of last season but here he'll be starting on short rest (four days) and even if he does pitch well there's no guarantee the Cubs up-and-down bullpen can close it out. Note that normally reliable setup man Mark Leiter Jr. has allowed four earned runs in his last two appearances and closer Adbert Alzolay has pitched in each of the last two games and may not be available as a result on Thursday. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He figures to be in line for some positive regression, noting that he has given up 8.1 hits per nine innings - his highest total since the 2019 campaign. The Brewers have actually lost Peralta's last two starts. They haven't lost three Peralta starts in a row since last August. We've seen encouraging signs out of the right-hander lately as he has yielded four hits or less in four straight starts and struck out at least eight batters in three of his last five trips to the hill. That comes on the heels of a stretch that saw him strike out five batters or fewer in five consecutive outings. The Brewers bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering last night's contest sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last seven games but has been reliable for the most part this season, converting 25 saves while blowing only 10. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-05-23 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between the Mets and Diamondbacks yesterday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday. Kodai Senga will take the ball for the visiting Mets. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.35 WHIP this season. Command has certainly been an issue as he has handed out 5.1 walks per nine innings. With that said, he's been able to limit the damage by allowing just 7.1 hits and 1.0 home run per nine innings, while striking out an average of 11.1 batters per nine innings. The D'Backs don't boast an overly patient lineup and I expect Senga to find some success as he faces them for the first time in his career. Tommy Henry will counter for Arizona. He got off to a rocky start this season but has since settled down, holding seven of his last 10 opponents to two earned runs or less. Henry has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last 11 outings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that entered yesterday's game in terrific position having worked just 20 innings over the last seven games, logging a 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. While the Mets 'pen entered this series sporting a collective ERA north of four, it owns a respectable 1.27 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only 11 blown. Take the under (8*). |
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07-04-23 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 5-2 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Pirates send Luis Ortiz against impressive Dodgers rookie Emmet Sheehan. Ortiz had a cup of coffee at the big league level last season and pitched relatively well. In extended work this year, that hasn't been the case as he has logged a 5.68 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in 50 1/3 innings. While Ortiz is just one start removed from allowing only one earned run against the Marlins, performances like that have been few and far between. In his most recent outing, Ortiz labored through 4 2/3 innings against the Padres, allowing four earned runs on six hits, including two home runs, and three walks. He's giving up a whopping 10.4 hits and 4.5 walks per nine innings this season and that's a recipe for disaster against a loaded Dodgers lineup. To illustrate just how badly Ortiz has struggled, 84 of the 227 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Behind Ortiz is a Pirates bullpen that has been effective lately but still owns a less than impressive 4.44 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Emmet Sheehan will get his fourth career big league start for the Dodgers. Of note, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for the first time on Tuesday. Sheehan has pitched well but has also had some good fortune, allowing just 5.3 hits per nine innings in a small sample size of just 17 innings. He wasn't particularly sharp in his most recent start in Colorado but his saving grace was the fact that he didn't issue a single walk (he allowed seven hits and three earned runs while striking out only five over five innings). Keep in mind, even at the Double-A level earlier this season, Sheehan issued an average of 3.9 walks per nine innings and he had handed out four free passes in his first 12 innings of work with the Dodgers this year. Los Angeles' bullpen has been overworked this season, logging a collective 318 2/3 innings (entering last night's contest). Dodgers relievers entered this series having posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with only nine saves converted and six blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-03-23 | Braves v. Guardians UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open an Interleague series in Cleveland on Monday. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He went through a bit of a rough stretch in early June but has since figured it out again, allowing just three earned runs in 19 innings of work over his last three outings. The 'under' has incredibly cashed in 10 of his last 11 trips to the hill. Elder enters this start sporting a 3.79 FIP and 1.13 WHIP on the season which is right in line with his career big league numbers. Rookie Gavin Williams will counter for Cleveland. He apparently shook off the nerves we saw in his first big league outing as he bounced back to hold the Royals to just one hit over seven shutout innings last time out. While we are talking about a small sample size, he has allowed just 10-of-46 batters he has faced to reach base. Keep in mind, Williams got the call to the bigs after logging a 2.39 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 60 1/3 innings spread across Double and Triple-A earlier this season. Both bullpens are in fairly good shape at this stage of the season with neither having eclipsed the 300-inning mark. The Braves 'pen has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 1.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Guardians relief corps had a bit of a shaky weekend in Chicago, it does own a stellar 2.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only four blown here at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-03-23 | BC v. Toronto +3 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Monday. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the 3-0 B.C. Lions as they come off a stunning 30-6 rout of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, on the road no less, and head East to face the 2-0 Toronto Argonauts on Monday. Note that B.C. hasn't taken the field since June 22nd while the Argos dusted the lowly Edmonton Elks by a 42-31 score last Sunday (June 25th). I do think the rest vs. rust factor comes into play at this early stage of the season. The Lions defense has been lights out in the early going this season but I don't think their success on that side of the football will prove sustainable. The Argos are still figuring things out with Chad Kelly at quarterback but he's shown a nice mix of passing and running ability and Toronto also boasts one of the league's best running back tandems in Andrew Harris and A.J. Ouelette. We'll grab the points with the Argos here as I do think Toronto has to feel somewhat disrespected being considered the underdog at home in this early season showdown of undefeated teams. Take Toronto (8*). |
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07-03-23 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | 12-11 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Houston at 2:05 pm et on Monday. The Astros have taken two of the first three games of this series but I look for the Rangers to earn a split in Monday's series-finale. Cristian Javier will get the start for Houston. He hasn't seemed quite right lately as he checks in having allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. Over that stretch he struck out just six batters in 17 2/3 innings of work. We've certainly seen some regression from Javier this season as he enters sporting a 4.10 FIP after logging a sparkling 3.16 FIP last year. Note that Javier is also allowing a career-high 8.0 walks per nine innings after yielding an unsustainable 6.0 or less over each of his first three big league seasons. Finally I'll note that Javier will be starting on just four days' rest on Monday. Martin Perez will counter for Texas. He'll make his second straight start on full rest after holding the Tigers to just two earned runs on four hits over six innings in an 8-3 Rangers victory last week. Perez hasn't necessarily enjoyed a banner year to this point, posting a 4.86 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in 16 starts. Those numbers have a lot to do with a rocky start to the season, however. He enters this outing having held six of his last eight opponents to two earned runs or less, working at least six innings in six of those starts as well. The Astros do hold a slight edge in terms of the bullpens but the Rangers do come in in fairly good shape having entered yesterday's game having logged only 18 2/3 relief innings over the last seven games and 12 fewer innings than the Astros relief corps on the season. Take Texas (8*). |
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07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. Kevin Gausman will once again be tasked with lifting the Blue Jays out of a losing streak as he takes the ball against Garrett Whitlock on Sunday afternoon in Toronto. I expect the Jays to bounce back here. Gausman has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, logging a 2.55 FIP and 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts spanning 104 2/3 innings of work. His counterpart Whitlock has pitched reasonably well at times but owns a less than impressive 4.31 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through an ugly 4 2/3 inning outing against the Marlins last time out (he allowed six earned runs on 11 hits). The Jays bullpen holds an advantage in terms of recent performance, noting that they entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven contests. In stark contrast, the Red Sox 'pen recorded a 5.33 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-01-23 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Seattle at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair as the Rays rallied for a 15-4 victory in the opener of this series last night. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as we have a premier starting pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and George Kirby. Glasnow was lights out in his minor league rehab stint earlier this season and has been good but not great since returning to the Rays starting rotation, posting a 3.84 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings of work. I do think his best days are ahead of him and like the matchup here as he faces the Mariners for the first time in his career. Note that Glasnow is coming off a 12-strikeout performance last time out - his highest strikeout total since April of 2021 - clearly showing that he is rounding back into form. Since scoring 23 runs over a two-game stretch last week, the Mariners have gone into the tank again offensively, scoring four runs or less in five of their last six games. George Kirby is having a tremendous season, having logged a 3.27 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 15 starts spanning 94 innings. While the Rays lineup is daunting for the best of pitchers, Kirby probably doesn't mind facing them after tossing six shutout innings of four-hit ball against them last season. Behind Kirby is a Mariners bullpen that has struggled lately, but should theoretically be in good shape right now having worked only 271 2/3 innings collectively this season. Mariners relievers have combined to record a 3.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. The Rays 'pen has been as good as advertised lately, posting a collective 0.91 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. They've had to work 351 1/3 innings on the campaign but that's been more strategy-based than anything else given the nature of their starting rotation. Take the under (8*). |
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07-01-23 | Winnipeg -6 v. Montreal | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Alouettes have drawn a favorable schedule to open the season, starting with a home game against the RedBlacks - projected to be one of the weaker teams in the league - followed by a bye week and then a road game against the reeling Tiger-Cats (now 0-3 on the campaign). Here, Montreal will take a step up in class against the Blue Bombers, who are coming off a miserable showing, at home no less, in a 30-6 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. That was an extremely difficult spot for Winnipeg as it returned home and played on just five days' rest after a 45-27 rout of the Roughriders in Regina. Now the Bombers have had time to regroup having not played since last Thursday and I expect a much better showing. Note that the straight-up winner has gone 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series with the only exception being a Bombers 10-point victory as an 11.5-point home favorite back in 2021. Montreal checks in a long-term 37-62 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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06-30-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -147 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -147 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:35 pm et on Friday. Something has to give in this one as both the Diamondbacks and Angels are coming off consecutive losses. I like Los Angeles to bounce back as it hands the ball to Griffin Canning against Tommy Henry of Arizona. Henry has inexplicably posted a perfect 6-0 team record over his last six starts. I say inexplicably because he still owns a lofty 5.44 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. The D'Backs bats have been bailing him out but I believe they'll be hard-pressed to do so on Friday. Note that Henry's poor overall numbers this season have been virtually on par with the ones he posted during his rookie campaign last year (5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 innings pitched). Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has been good but certainly not great this season. Arizona's relief corps enters this series sporting a collective 4.36 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Griffin Canning got off to a bit of a shaky start this season but perhaps that was to be expected after he missed the entire 2022 campaign due to a back injury. Canning has certainly rounded into form lately, pitching as well as he has at any point during his big league career, allowing just nine earned runs in 36 innings of work over his last six starts to lower his FIP to 4.53 and his WHIP to 1.16. The Angels have handled Canning the right way this season, allowing him to pitch on full rest (five days or more) in all 12 starts. While Los Angeles' bullpen has suffered some regression lately, it still owns a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the season with 28 saves converted and only 13 blown (entering yesterday's action). Closer Carlos Estevez has been kept idle over the last two games so he should be good to go on Friday if needed. He has racked up 20 saves already this season while posting a 1.91 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 33 innings. Take Los Angeles (10*). |