Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-17-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Patriots | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chiefs are a screaming buy right now coming off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, especially given the nature of last Sunday's home defeat against the Bills in which QB Patrick Mahomes in particular felt his team was shafted by the officials (even though it clearly wasn't). The SU winner has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Patriots previous contests this season and I look for that trend to continue here. New England does have the rest advantage having not played since a week ago Thursday in Pittsburgh, when it staged a 21-18 upset victory. That win was about as ugly as it gets as the Pats gained just north of 300 total yards of offense and made an early lead stand up against Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers. I don't need to tell you that there's an ocean between facing Trubisky and Mahomes, even with the Chiefs offense struggling at times this season. Note that Kansas City is a long-term 55-36 ATS when playing on the road following a loss. Meanwhile, New England is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-17-23 | Giants +5.5 v. Saints | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. This spot sets up beautifully for the Giants in the sense that they have the ground game to gash the Saints and effectively shorten proceedings as a considerable road underdog. QB Tommy DeVito has grabbed plenty of headlines for his surprisingly efficient play. I don't expect him to be asked to do too much in this spot. The Saints are coming off a blowout win over the hapless Panthers but that victory had more to do with Carolina's inability to finish drives than anything else. Note that New Orleans is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and 4-13 ATS in its last 17 contests following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Giants are a long-term 113-83 ATS on the road against NFC foes and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Take New York (10*). |
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12-17-23 | Falcons v. Panthers +3 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The underdog has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and they don't get much uglier than the 1-12 Panthers. As bad as things have gone for Carolina it has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games just once over its last seven contests. Note that the Panthers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Carolina is also 18-7 ATS in its last 25 contests after scoring six points or less in its previous game. The Falcons have won just one of five road games by more than a field goal this season. Take Carolina (8*). |
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12-16-23 | Portland +10.5 v. Grand Canyon | 63-91 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Grand Canyon at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. We‘ll simply fade Grand Canyon as it comes off consecutive outright underdog victories and now lays double-digits against Portland on Saturday. Note that the last time we saw the Antelopes favored they failed to cover the spread at home against Texas-Arlington. Portland is no pushover at 6-5 on the season and fresh off a ’get right’ road win over North Dakota. Take Portland (8*). |
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12-16-23 | California v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over California at 9:15 pm et on Saturday. California closed out the regular season with about as big of a win as you can get in Berkeley, defeating rival UCLA 33-7, securing Bowl eligibility in the process. The Bears needed to use everything they had in the tank to earn a Bowl spot, winning their final three games. Of course, they were favored in two of those contests so it's not as if it was a monumental accomplishment. Here, I think Cal is in the wrong place at the wrong time as it runs into a Texas Tech squad that will be eager to make amends for an embarrassing 57-7 loss against Texas in its regular season finale. The Red Raiders picked up some nice wins this season including on the road against Baylor and Kansas and at home against TCU. There were some bad losses in the mix as well but as a whole I was more encouraged by the Red Raiders consistency than I was with the Bears. Note that the loss against Texas sets Texas Tech up well here as it has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, Cal is a long-term 20-25 ATS in its last 45 games following an upset victory. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
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12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. NFL teams don't often get a shot at a 'do-over' but this is about as close as it comes for the Lions as they host the Broncos in a pre-holiday primetime game after laying an egg on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers. Adding fuel to Detroit's fire is the fact that it's coming off another stunning defeat against a divisional opponent in Chicago last Sunday. Perhaps QB Jared Goff's struggles in that contest were predictable as he hasn't travelled well over the course of his career. Here, he and the Lions draw a smash spot against a Broncos team that's 'fat and happy' off a 24-7 rout of the Chargers (who lost QB Justin Herbert to injury in the game) in Los Angeles last Sunday. Denver has improved, that's for sure. The Broncos are in the playoff picture thanks to a 6-1 SU run. I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday, however. Note that Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an upset win and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road contests as an underdog of a touchdown or less. Detroit on the other hand is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit loss. The last time we saw it in that situation it delivered a 26-14 win over the Raiders in a primetime game on October 30th. Take Detroit (10*). |
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12-16-23 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 217 | Top | 116-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls have incredibly held 24 of their 26 opponents to 90 field goal attempts or less this season. That's quite an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The first game of this two-game set in Miami was actually high-scoring, resulting in 240 total points. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday. The Bulls have been performing well offensively in Zach LaVine's absence. They knocked down 45 field goals in Thursday's win over the Heat. With that being said, they're just one game removed from connecting on only 36 field goals in Denver. The Heat have been held to exactly 37 made field goals in three of their last four contests. They're unlikely to push the pace against the Bulls, noting they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 19 of their last 20 games. Thursday's game snapped a streak of five straight contests in which Miami had held the opposition to 87 FG attempts or fewer. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 in the Bulls last 39 road games following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-23 | Avalanche v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Jets slipped four goals past the Avalanche when these teams met on December 7th in Colorado, winning that contest by a pair. I look for a lower-scoring affair this time around as Colorado heads to Winnipeg on Saturday. The Jets have allowed two goals or less in six straight games. They're giving up only 2.8 goals per game at home this season. Colorado had allowed a whopping 10 goals in its last two games before holding the Sabres to one goal last time out. Note that the 'under' is 21-7 in the Avs last 28 road games seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. The 'under' is also 39-17 in Winnipeg's last 56 home games following a victory. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-23 | New Mexico State v. Fresno State +3.5 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Fresno State plus the points over New Mexico State at 5:45 pm et on Saturday. Perhaps home field advantage is weighing heavily on this line with New Mexico State playing in its own backyard against reeling Fresno State on Saturday. If anything, I think it's the visiting Bulldogs that have a lot more to prove after their regular season ended with a thud with three straight losses to take it out of Mountain West Conference title contention. Fresno State had everything in front of it after a home win over Boise State on November 4th but it all unravelled from there. The Bulldogs are precisely the type of team I like to back come Bowl season. As much as it's thought that teams have a tendency to quit after a disappointing finish the campaign, once the ball is kicked off, they're often the teams that find their motivation and end up coming out on top. I would lump New Mexico State in the 'happy to be here' category as the Aggies were an afterthought at the start of the season but ended up winning 10 games including an eight-game SU and ATS winning streak from October 4th to November 25th and an upset win over rival New Mexico. Note that Fresno State checks in 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after three straight losses against conference opponents, as is the case here. New Mexico State is a long-term 32-37 ATS in its last 69 games as a favorite. Take Fresno State (8*). |
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12-15-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga +5.5 | Top | 76-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on Gonzaga plus the points over Connecticut at 10 pm et on Friday. Needless to say, Gonzaga has had this rematch circled on its calendar after falling by an 82-54 score against Connecticut last March. The Bulldogs get this game in their own backyard at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle and with an upset loss against in-state rival Washington last Saturday fresh in their minds, I look for them to make a statement here. While Connecticut does rank an impressive fourth in the country according to KenPom, it has also faced only the 321st most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). Gonzaga ranks 11th in the country, taking a hit following last week's defeat against Washington. Note that the Bulldogs have gone up against the 86th toughest slate of opponents this season. Gonzaga is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a home win but non-cover, as is the case here. UConn on the other hand is just 30-34 ATS in its last 64 contests following a victory by 30 or more points, which is also the situation on Friday. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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12-15-23 | Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 212 | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is a rematch of the Rockets 117-104 win at home two nights ago. Houston continues to get it done, riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak, despite a rather limited offense that has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in five straight contests. Defensively, Houston has been on point, limiting 10 of its last 12 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals with its last two foes knocking down only 31 and 35 field goals. Jaren Jackson picked up the offensive slack in Desmond Bane's absence in Houston, pouring in 44 points. It remains to be seen whether Bane will return on Friday but if he does, we can anticipate Johnson taking a bit of a backseat offensively so that essentially results in status-quo in terms of point production. The Grizzlies have gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games. The only time they topped that mark they hoisted up 91 FG attempts in a 116-point performance against the lowly Pistons. Defensively, Memphis has held Houston to 40 and 39 made field goals in two previous meetings this season and has limited the opposition to just 82 FG attempts per game here at home. Note that the 'under' is 18-7 in Memphis' last 25 games following consecutive losses, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-15-23 | Magic +6 v. Celtics | 111-128 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. In an odd scheduling quirk, the Magic enter this tilt in Boston well-rested following three off days (they last played on Monday at home against Cleveland). The Celtics have played twice since then, including last night as they were forced to use up much of what they had in the tank holding off a late push from the Cavaliers. This certainly isn't a favorable matchup at the best of times for Boston as Orlando has won each of the last four meetings, including two straight matchups here in Beantown. Note that the Celtics are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here after they dropped a 113-96 decision in Orlando on November 24th. Meanwhile, the Magic are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games when priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, as is the case here. Take Orlando (8*). |
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12-15-23 | Bruins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Bruins are coming off an overtime loss in New Jersey two nights ago but they still held the opposition to three goals or less for a sixth straight game. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 in their last 16 road games following a loss by a single goal. The Islanders have seen two straight and seven of their last eight games go 'over' the total. I certainly don't think that's a sustainable trend. Note that the 'under' is 21-10 in New York's last 31 games after its previous two contests both totalled seven or more goals, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 28-22 in the Isles last 50 games when seeking revenge for a road defeat against an opponent, which is the situation here as well. While the last two meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, we haven't seen three consecutive 'over' results between these two teams since 2010-11. Take the under (10*). |
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12-14-23 | Lightning v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Oilers are coming off consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold as they host the Lightning on Thursday. Tampa Bay should be in a foul mood after scoring just one goal in a lopsided defeat in Vancouver on Tuesday. Note that the 'over' is 21-11 in the Bolts last 32 games following consecutive road contests, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 13-2 in the Oilers last 15 home games after winning consecutive games by two goals or more, which is also the situation here. The 'over' is 22-11 in the Oilers last 33 contests after holding consecutive opponents to two goals or less as well. The last two meetings in this series have produced eight and 10 total goals. Take the over (8*). |
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12-14-23 | Wolves +2.5 v. Mavs | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
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12-14-23 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 229.5 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. I'll admit my first reaction was to grab the points with the Timberwolves in this game as they look to bounce back following Monday's lopsided defeat in New Orleans. After taking a deeper look, I think the better play is on the 'under' on Thursday night in Dallas. Minnesota has really clamped down defensively in recent games, holding six of its last seven opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In three meetings with the Mavericks last season, the T'Wolves held them to just 84, 75 and 76 field goal attempts. Dallas is no better-suited to take advantage of Minnesota here with a number of key contributors either sidelined or banged-up. I do like the fact that both teams come in rested with the T'Wolves idle since Monday and the Mavs having last played on Tuesday here at home against the Lakers. While Minnesota has been rolling, it hasn't necessarily been blowing the doors off the opposition, knocking down 44 or fewer field goals in 15 consecutive games. While the 'over' has gone 8-3 in its 11 road games this season, those contests have averaged just 226.6 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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12-14-23 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 21-63 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points first half over Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. In a battle of backup quarterbacks with both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense, I'll grab the points with the Chargers in the first half. My issue with Los Angeles for the full game is head coach Brandon Staley's track record closing out football games. That's not to mention the fact that Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell will likely be on a short leash here and his presence is one of the main reasons I'm interested in fading Las Vegas. Should Jimmy Garoppolo get another shot at running the offense, I could see the Raiders getting a spark. I do think the Raiders will need to make considerable halftime adjustments to support their offensive line, which is missing a pair of starters due to injury. The Chargers are set up well to feast on that Raiders o-line in the first half. On the flip side, we'll likely see Los Angeles lean heavily on swiss army knife RB Austin Ekeler against a Raiders run defense that has been torched for 4.4 yards per rush this season. QB Easton Stick won't have his top target on the field in WR Keenan Allen but I do like Stick's arm, not to mention his mobility, which he flashed during his years with North Dakota State. Keep in mind, Stick has been with the Chargers since 2019 and has the advantage of being familiar with the playbook, something that O'Connell has seemingly struggled to grasp in his first season as a Raider. Note that Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in the first half in its last 20 games following a double-digit upset loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in the first half in its last six games when seeking revenge for a loss by seven points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles first half (10*). |
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12-13-23 | Sabres v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. While the Avalanche did snap their two-game losing streak with a wild 6-5 win over the Flames on Monday, head coach Jared Bednar couldn't have been happy with his team's defensive play. I look for Colorado to tighten things up in that department as it hosts Buffalo on Wednesday. Note that the 'under' is 14-2 in the Avs last 16 home games after giving up three goals or more in three straight contests, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 7-1 with Colorado seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, which is also the situation here after the Sabres defeated the Avs 4-0 on October 29th. Buffalo is coming off a 5-2 win over Arizona on Monday and that's notable as the 'under' is 8-2 with the Sabres following a game that totalled seven goals or more. Take the under (8*). |
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12-13-23 | Nets +2.5 v. Suns | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nets didn't get this road trip off to the start they had hoped for, dropping a 13-point decision in Sacramento on Sunday. I look for them to get back on track on Wednesday, however, as they have a major rest advantage against a Suns squad that looked like it used everything it had in the tank in last night's thrilling win over the Warriors. Brooklyn has quietly been one of the best bets in the league this season, going 16-5-1 ATS. Few have paid much attention but the Nets check in sporting a winning record with Sunday's defeat in Sacramento marking just their second loss in their last eight contests. Note that the Nets are a long-term 70-39 ATS against Pacific Division opponents and 8-1 ATS when coming off a loss this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -6 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks have obviously had this game circled since dropping an ugly one against the Pacers in the in-season tournament semi-final round last week. In fact, Indiana has taken both previous matchups between these two teams this season. Neither of those games were played in Milwaukee, however. The Bucks are 11-1 at home this season while the Pacers have given up just shy of 132 points per game on the road. Note that the Bucks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games as a favorite of six points or less. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Milwaukee is a long-term 27-20 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and 24-19 ATS in its last 43 games following consecutive ATS defeats, which is also the situation here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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12-12-23 | Nuggets v. Bulls +7.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bulls have quietly reeled off five straight ATS victories, including last night's near-miss in a four-point overtime loss in Milwaukee. Yes, Chicago is missing some key contributors, including Zach LaVine but others like Demar Derozan and Coby White have more than picked up the slack. This isn't a team that is going to get blown out often as it has held an incredible 20 of its last 21 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Nuggets are an excellent defensive team in their own right, they've yielded more than 44 made field goals twice in their last six games alone. Denver did deliver a win and cover in Atlanta last night but that only served to snap a three-game SU and ATS losing streak. Note that the Nuggets are long-term losers playing the second of back-to-back nights having gone 210-258 ATS going all the way back to 1996. Denver did take the first meeting between these two teams by a 123-101 score in the Mile High City back in November. It hasn't won consecutive matchups with the Bulls since 2021, going 2-3 SU in the last five meetings. Prior to a 126-103 win in Chicago last November, Denver hadn't won a game at the United Center by more than six points since 2018. Take Chicago (10*). |
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12-12-23 | Flyers v. Predators -133 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Nashville over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Predators got off to a disappointing start this season by all accounts but have since worked themselves back into the Western Conference playoff picture. In fact, Nashville is red hot having won 10 of its last 13 games overall. The Flyers are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip following wins in Arizona and Colorado. Note that they're a long-term 126-153 following a road victory by two goals or more, as is the case here, and 30-41 in their last 71 contests following consecutive wins by three goals or more. The road team did take both meetings in this series last season but that hasn't been a regular occurrence. Prior to last season, the home side had won four straight matchups in the series. Take Nashville (10*). |
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12-12-23 | Tenn-Martin v. NC State -19.5 | 67-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Tennessee-Martin at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Wolfpack have righted the ship with back-to-back wins (and covers) against Boston College and Maryland-Eastern Shore following a three-game ATS slide in late November. I look for the Wolfpack to continue their ascension leading up to a big showdown with Tennessee on Saturday. N.C. State has climbed to 70th in the KenPom national rankings on the strength of consecutive strong offensive showings. I expect the Wolfpack to lay waste to one of the worst defensive teams in the country on Tuesday, noting Tennessee-Martin ranks 321st in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that Tennessee-Martin is a long-term 44-73 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 points or more, as is the case here. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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12-11-23 | Flames v. Avalanche -165 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Avalanche have inexplicably lost consecutive games on home ice and five of their last six contests overall. I look for them to bounce back on Monday as they host a disappointing Flames squad that has lost three of its last four games. Despite its recent struggles, Colorado is still 9-4 on home ice this season, where it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals. In stark contrast, Calgary checks in 5-9 on the road. You would have to go back four meetings here in Denver to find the last time the Flames posted a victory. I certainly don't think the Avs want to leave it to the last game of this five-game homestand (on Wednesday against Buffalo) to try to turn things around. Take Colorado (8*). |
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12-11-23 | Flames v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Monday. I think we'll see the Avalanche clamp down defensively on Monday after an ugly 5-2 defeat at home against the Flyers on Saturday - the team's second straight loss. Calgary needs to sort things out as well following a 4-2 home loss against the Devils on Saturday - its third defeat in its last four contests. This hasn't exactly been a high-scoring series with the last three meetings producing 5, 5 and 4 total goals including a 3-1 Avs home victory earlier this season. Note that the 'under' is 17-4 in Colorado's last 21 home games following a home loss with that spot producing an average total of only 5.6 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants +6 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Packers are coming off three straight wins including high-profile, high-visibility victories (and covers) over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day and the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football last week. We'll gladly step in and fade Green Bay as it plays on the road laying nearly a touchdown against the Giants on Monday. New York has quietly reeled off consecutive wins and enters this contest off its bye week. There's a path for success for the Giants here as the Packers can't stop the run and New York has a healthy Saquon Barkley capable of delivering a strong performance on Monday. Green Bay's offense has looked sharp over the last couple of weeks but will have to go on without WR Christian Watson. After committing at least one turnover in seven straight games, the Packers have turned in three straight clean performances. I'm thinking that changes here with the Giants defense having forced a whopping 11 turnovers over their last three contests. Take New York (8*). |
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12-11-23 | Cavs v. Magic -2 | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the Cavaliers off Friday's road win over the Heat. Orlando is off to a terrific 15-7 start this season but just snapped a two-game skid with Friday's rout of the lowly Pistons. This is a quick revenge spot for the Magic after they suffered a 10-point loss in Cleveland last week. The Cavs are fresh off consecutive ATS wins but it's worth noting that marks their longest ATS winning streak this season. They're 0-2 ATS following back-to-back ATS wins this season, missing covers by 32 and 20 points in those two contests. Note that Orlando is 32-20 ATS in its last 52 home games. Take Orlando (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Michigan +4 v. Iowa | 90-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan plus the points over Iowa at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. The Wolverines are stacking up losses right now, fresh off three straight defeats including a stunner at home against Big Ten rival Indiana earlier this week. It's been a similar story for Iowa as it has dropped consecutive games and checks in 1-5 ATS over its last six contests. The difference is, while the Wolverines have at least been competitive in all but one of their five losses this season, the Hawkeyes have had their doors blown off on three occasions, including in each of their last two contests against Purdue and rival Iowa State. Iowa has won consecutive meetings in this series but hasn't delivered three straight victories over Michigan since reeling off five consecutive wins over the Wolverines from 2014 to 2017. Note that Michigan is 29-15 ATS in its last 44 road games after losing five or six of its last seven contests, as is the case here. Take Michigan (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Vikings v. Raiders +3 | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings had their run. I think their season is all but done, even if their even 6-6 record indicates otherwise. They'll get a big boost with the return of WR Justin Jefferson this week but that's been more than factored into this line. Yes, Minnesota enters this game with a chip on its shoulder after consecutive losses but Las Vegas is in precisely the same position. There's no real shame in the Raiders last two losses as they came on the road against the Dolphins and at home against the Chiefs. Note that Las Vegas is 4-2 SU at home this season. The Vikings are an identical 4-2 on the road but just 1-1 with Josh Dobbs as their starting quarterback. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams yet we're catching a field goal with the Raiders at home. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers -13.5 | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers have won four straight meetings in this series by a combined score of 120-56. I don't envision the Seahawks closing the gap one bit on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara. Seattle left it all on the field in last week's 41-35 loss in Dallas. I'm not sure how much Seattle has left in the tank following three straight losses that have dropped it to an even 6-6 on the campaign. QB Geno Smith is among those banged up heading into this matchup. There's a good chance we'll see backup QB Drew Lock at some point in this game. The 49ers have been a streaky team and I look for them to match their season-long three-game ATS winning streak here. This is a team that is still ascending offensively and essentially playing mistake-free football with just one turnover in its last four contests. Defensively, we've already seen the Niners absolutely wreck the Seahawks offense on Thanksgiving Night. Note that the Niners are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against divisional opponents and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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12-10-23 | Jaguars v. Browns -3 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game is set up on a platter for the Browns as they return home off consecutive blowout losses in Denver and Los Angeles, even if the latter featured a rather misleading final score. Jacksonville is playing on a short week after getting punched in the mouth by the Joe Burrow-less Bengals on Monday night. QB Trevor Lawrence is banged up. Whether he plays or not remains up in the air but regardless, this is a difficult matchup for the Bengals offense against a Browns defense that surely has a bad taste in its mouth. Cleveland may turn to QB Joe Flacco again on Sunday. He actually provided some stability to the offense last week against the Rams. I do think we'll see the Browns go back to the basics this Sunday, letting their ground game and defense do the heavy lifting. Jacksonville is dealing with key injuries in its secondary that just might open the door for Flacco and the Browns passing attack to produce just enough big plays to finish the job. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Panthers +6 v. Saints | 6-28 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers are playing with absolutely nothing to lose down the stretch. Frank Reich was already fired. Most have already given up on QB Bryce Young, at least in his rookie season. They're coming off five consecutive losses, having gone 1-3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think they rise to the occasion in this revenge spot, however, noting that the Panthers are a long-term 41-23 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. The Saints are a miserable 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. I simply feel they're regressed into a team that simply isn't built for the fast track at the Superdome. Note that New Orleans is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games played indoors, including an ugly 1-7 ATS mark this season. The Saints check in having allowed 100+ rushing yards in seven straight games and I think that opens the door for the Panthers to effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday, and stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Carolina (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Flyers v. Avalanche -200 | 5-2 | Loss | -200 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Philadelphia at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Cale Makar returned from injury for the Avalanche on Thursday against Winnipeg but it wasn't enough as Colorado lost 4-2 - its fourth defeat in its last five contests. I look for the Avs to bounce back on Saturday as they host a Flyers team coming off three straight victories. Note that Colorado has won four straight meetings in this series here in Denver. Philadelphia is a woeful 8-26 in its last 34 games after giving up one goal or less in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Colorado (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The underdog has gone an incredible 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series and I believe the Pacers are well-positioned to keep that run going on Saturday. The Lakers impressed in the semi-final round two nights ago, blasting New Orleans by a whopping 44 points. Indiana might have been even more impressive, dominating the Bucks in a 128-119 victory. The Lakers have now held three straight opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals but I think there's a good chance the Pacers overwhelm them with their offense here, noting that Indiana has knocked down 42 or more field goals in an incredible 17 straight games. The Lakers have reached that number of higher just twice in their last six games. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 37-57 ATS when coming off an ATS victory and a woeful 5-15 ATS in its last 20 contests after winning four of its last five games ATS, as is the case here. Take Indiana (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Devils -117 v. Flames | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey over Calgary at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Hurricanes let the Flames off the hook on Thursday, blowing a 2-0 lead en route to a 3-2 defeat. I don't expect the Devils to suffer the same fate as Calgary's homestand continues on Saturday. New Jersey enters this game playing its best hockey of the season having won five of its last six games overall and two straight to open this road trip. The Devils have picked up right where they left off last season, thriving on the road with an 8-4 record. The Flames are just 6-6 on home ice and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goal. Note that Calgary is just 18-29 in its last 47 games following a victory. Take New Jersey (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Army v. Navy UNDER 28.5 | 17-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. The long 'under' streak in this storied rivalry came to an end in 2021 and last year's game found its way 'over' the total as well thanks to overtime (only 20 points were scored in regulation time). While we're dealing with an incredibly low posted total for the 2023 edition, I'm still willing to take a flyer on the 'under'. Between these two teams during the regular season we saw six shutouts pitched one way or another. Both teams actually opened up their offenses a little more this year, electing to sling it around the field a little bit rather than strictly operating option-based attacks. With that being said, Army comes into this game on a three-game winning streak and it essentially took passing out of its vocabulary in those three contests, connecting on just 8-of-17 throws for 119 yards. Last time out against Coastal Carolina, the Black Knights attempted just two passes (and didn't have a completion). This has all the makings of a chess match. Navy showed incredible patience over the course of the season, relying on its knack for turning over its opponents while methodically wearing down the opposition on offense. Even though the Midshipmen did throw it a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing, they still topped out at 163 passing yards and that came against an FCS opponent in Wagner. Take the under (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Indiana v. Auburn -6 | 76-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Indiana at 2 pm et on Saturday. Indiana picked up a massive win on the road against Michigan last time out. I expect the Hoosiers to fall flat on Saturday, however, as they stay on the road to face SEC foe Auburn. The Tigers will be in a foul mood after dropping a 69-64 decision as 7.5-point favorites on the road against Appalachian State on Sunday. Prior to that, Auburn had reeled off five straight victories, including three ATS wins in its last four games. Indiana has delivered three consecutive ATS wins following an 0-4-1 ATS start. Note that this is only the third time this season the Hoosiers have been in an underdog role. I don't expect them to catch Auburn flat-footed the way they did against Michigan. Note that Indiana is a long-term 60-92 ATS in its last 152 road games following consecutive ATS victories. Take Auburn (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Kings -1.5 v. Suns | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings have an extra day of rest advantage here after they bowed out of the in-season tournament with a disappointing home loss against the Pelicans on Monday. They've now lost four of their last seven games but I like their chances of bouncing back against the Suns on Friday. Phoenix is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS over its last four contests. Bradley Beal has yet to make much of a contribution at all due to injury while Kevin Durant is now sidelined as well. Durant's absence has obviously been factored into the line but as a whole, the Suns have struggled offensively, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in four straight games. Note that the Kings are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a home defeat and have proven to be road warriors, going 35-19 ATS in their last 54 contests away from home. The Suns are 23-28 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog and 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests as a home underdog of six points or less. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Cavs -0.5 v. Heat | 111-99 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Just a simple fade of the Heat off their 'upset' win in Toronto on Wednesday. Miami hasn't exactly been blowing the opposition off the floor at home this season, going 5-3 in South Beach but an even 119.2 points apiece in terms of scoring average. Note that the Heat are just 27-40 ATS in their last 67 games following a SU win and 19-34 ATS in their last 53 contests coming off an ATS victory. The Cavaliers got off to a slow start this season but have since gone 8-3 over their last 11 games including an impressive double-digit victory over the upstart Magic on Wednesday. Letdowns haven't really been a problem for the Cavs as they're 35-23 ATS in their last 58 games following a double-digit victory. Also note that Cleveland will be seeking revenge for a 33-point home loss against Miami suffered back in November. Note that the Cavs have gone a perfect 2-0 ATS the only two times they've been in a similar revenge spot over the last two seasons. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Knicks +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-133 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Knicks have played just once since last Friday as they got drilled by the Bucks in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Monday. Milwaukee simply couldn't miss in that game, shooting a blistering 60% from the field. I'm confident we'll see the scrappy Knicks respond in this divisional road contest on Friday. They're set up well having gone a long-term 71-44 ATS when coming off a game in which the opposition shot 55% or better from the field. This is a revenge spot for the Knicks as well after they suffered a lopsided 16-point defeat in Boston back in November. Note that New York checks in 6-5 on the road this season where it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points. Boston has dropped the cash in consecutive games and is just 2-7 ATS over its last nine contests. It's difficult to cover these lofty spreads when you're playing as loose as the Celtics are defensively. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in six of their last eight games. Take New York (10*). |
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12-08-23 | Penguins v. Panthers UNDER 6.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Florida at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The 'under' is 9-1 in the Penguins last 10 games including a perfect 2-0 on their current road trip. While a date with the Panthers could generally be considered a potential breakout spot for an opposing offense, I'm not sure there's a quick fix for the Pens right now. Note that Florida is actually giving up just 2.6 goals per game this season. The Panthers have scored 13 goals over their last three games but that scoring tear actually helps our cause here, noting the 'under' is a long-term 81-56 with Florida having scored three goals or more in three consecutive games. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Penguins coming off a road loss this season and a long-term 23-6 when playing on the road off a loss by two goals or more, which is also the situation here. Since the start of 2019, nine of 12 meetings in this series have totalled six goals or less. While these two teams are known for their offense, they actually qualify as having two of the worst power plays in the entire league. The Pens are 7-for-71 with the man advantage this season while the Panthers check in 15-for-81. Take the under (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Penguins +146 v. Panthers | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Florida at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I think we'll see the Penguins best effort here after they dropped the opening two games of this three-game road trip. Following tonight's game Pittsburgh will have three full days off before taking the ice again at home against the Coyotes. It certainly doesn't want to be stewing on an 0-3 road trip and four-game losing streak. Note that despite the Pens 6-7 road record, they've actually outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.5 goals away from home. They catch the Panthers in a favorable spot here, noting that Florida checks in off a wild 5-4 victory over Dallas two nights ago and is just 26-32 in its last 58 games after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest. Pittsburgh is 4-3 in the last seven meetings in this series including an even 2-2 mark in its last four trips to Sunrise. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-07-23 | Hurricanes -120 v. Flames | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hurricanes might as well have not even shown up to the rink in Edmonton last night as they were down 2-0 in the game's first minute and 4-0 less than 15 minutes in en route to a 6-1 defeat. The good news is, they have an immediate shot at redemption as they return to the ice after making the short trip to Calgary on Thursday. This is a talented, experienced and perhaps most important in this situation, well-coached team and one that I expect to see bounce back in this spot. The Flames had a solid November following an absolutely brutal October but they've gone back to their losing ways here in December, dropping consecutive games on home ice against the Canucks and Wild. This doesn't appear to be an ideal 'get right' matchup, noting the Canes have taken five of the last six meetings in this series. Take Carolina (10*). |
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12-07-23 | Pelicans v. Lakers -1.5 | 89-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers aren't likely to be competing for the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June but they do have a good chance to take the inaugural in-season tournament title in Las Vegas. Los Angeles checks in 10-4 over its last 14 games but did survive a comeback scare against the Suns in the quarter-final round. New Orleans on the other hand got an incredible performance from Brandon Ingram to surge past the Kings two nights ago. The Pelicans have been shooting the lights out but are playing with a rather slim margin for error in my opinion as they've gotten off 88, 78, 85, 82 and 87 field goal attempts over their last five contests. The Lakers can play some defense having held three of their last four and five of their last eight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that New Orleans is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games played away from home following a double-digit upset win, as is the case here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-07-23 | Patriots v. Steelers -6 | 21-18 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. Talk about an ugly Thursday night matchup but we can only bet what's in front of us and I like the way this one sets up for the Steelers. Pittsburgh dropped a lopsided decision against the Cardinals at home last Sunday. Some were stunned by that defeat. I wasn't. The Cardinals actually have a lot going for them right now - the same can't be said for Bill Bellichick's Patriots. The Pats are essentially jockeying for draft positioning at this point and in pretty good shape in that regard. Rhamondre Stevenson's presence was one of the only things that would have led me to believe New England could stay competitive in this game but now he's sidelined as well. For the Steelers, we'll see Mitchell Trubisky under center. That's a drop-off from Kenny Pickett to be sure, but not an insurmountable one. The Steelers will once again lean on their ground game and defense to win this game anyway. Note that Pittsburgh has yet to lose consecutive games SU or ATS this season. They'll avoid that fate here as well. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-07-23 | Stars -130 v. Capitals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Stars didn't fare well in their two-game set in Florida, dropping games in Tampa and Sunrise. Despite a tough back-to-back spot against a rested Capitals squad on Thursday, I look for the Stars to salvage a win in the finale of their three-game road trip. Note that Dallas is still 8-5 on the road this season and has reeled off four straight victories in the Nation's Capital going back to 2018. Washington checks in off back-to-back losses, outscored by a whopping margin of 10-1 in those two contests. Note that the Stars are 21-10 in their last 31 road games after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Washington is 2-8 in its last 10 home games following a road loss by two goals or more. Take Dallas (8*). |
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12-06-23 | Hurricanes v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Edmonton at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Hurricanes will likely be in a foul mood as they head to Edmonton following Monday's lifeless 2-1 defeat in Winnipeg. Make no mistake, the Canes can score as they average 3.4 goals per game on the season. In a game where both teams have question marks between the pipes (neither has a goaltender on the roster with a save percentage .900 or higher this season), I'm anticipating plenty of offense. The Oilers have been scoring at will, finding the back of the net 21 times during their current four-game winning streak. Like the Canes, they're also averaging 3.4 goals per game this season. Keep in mind, this has been a high-scoring series with three meetings going back to the start of last season producing 10, 9 and 9 total goals. Take the over (8*). |
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12-06-23 | Pittsburgh -3.5 v. West Virginia | 80-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Pitt should be fuming off consecutive home losses against Missouri and Clemson. While those were two tough games, you have to imagine the Panthers figured they could at least earn a split (or better). That wasn't the case so now they hit the road looking to get back on track against West Virginia on Wednesday. The Mountaineers are in a bit of a reset year with no returning starters from last year's team. It's a much different story for Pitt, which has been slowly rebuilding under head coach Jeff Capel and last season went 24-12, eventually bowing out as an 11-seed in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia is off to a 3-4 start in the first year of the post-Bob Huggins era under the guidance of new head coach Josh Eilert. After eking out a win over Bellarmine (by four points), the Mountaineers fell by six against St. John's last time out as their four-game homestand continued. This is a matchup the Panthers have likely had circled after dropping an ugly 81-56 decision at home against West Virginia last season. The Mountaineers were road favorites in that game but the shoe is on the other foot this time around and I expect to see a different result. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-06-23 | 76ers -9.5 v. Wizards | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers are coming off consecutive losses but essentially played with their 'B' squad last time out against Boston (and still managed to cover the spread). Here, we should see Philadelphia back at full strength (or close to it) following a four-day layoff. To say Wizards opponents have been stuffing the boxscore would be an understatement. They've allowed 43 or more made field goals in 10 straight games with three opponents knocking down more than 50 field goals over that stretch. I worry about their offense in this particular spot against an elite 76ers defense (and a rested one at that). Note that Washington scored 120 or more points in each of its last three games but all of those came on the road. Interestingly, the Wiz have averaged just 112.9 points per game at home this season, nearly four points per game below their season scoring average. Philadelphia has held its last three opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts with only one of those foes managing to break 40 made field goals. On the road this season, the Sixers have employed a smothering defense, yielding just 40-of-85 shooting on average. Even in a game where Philadelphia didn't bring the proper level of defensive intensity against the Wizards back on November 6th (it allowed Washington to make good on 49-of-96 field goal attempts) it will won by 18 points. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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12-06-23 | Penguins +114 v. Lightning | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. While I understand this is a revenge spot for the Lightning after the Penguins prevailed 4-2 in Tampa last week, I still think Pittsburgh is in better position to respond here following consecutive losses against the Flyers. Note that the Pens have owned this series in South Florida lately, taking each of the last four meetings at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay snapped a four-game losing streak with a dominant 4-0 win over Dallas two nights ago. The Bolts are just 16-22 in their last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored four goals or more. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-05-23 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 228.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I just don't see the sort of track meet developing that most are expecting as the Suns and Lakers do battle in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Tuesday. The Lakers have already taken the first two meetings between these teams this season and if the Suns want to change the outcome here, they'll likely have to win ugly, noting they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in five of their last six games. The good news is, the Lakers don't figure to really push the pace. They've hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 18 straight games. They've managed to connect on more than 40 field goals just once in their last four contests and that came against the hapless Pistons. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 123-93 in Lakers home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-23 with the Suns seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -7 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Indiana at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Indiana is probably feeling pretty good about itself following three straight wins, including an impressive double-digit win and cover at home against Maryland last Friday. I think the Hoosiers will get caught in a letdown on Tuesday, however, as they run into a Michigan squad desperate for a win off back-to-back losses against Texas Tech and Oregon. While the Wolverines are 1-4 over their last five games, only the loss to Long Beach State (a good team in its own right) was truly disappointing. The other four games over that stretch all saw closing lines of fewer than three points - in other words, they all could have gone either way. Looking at the positives, Michigan did score a whopping 83 points on the road against a good Oregon team last time out. KenPom still has the Wolverines ranked 20 spots higher than the Hoosiers at 49th in the country. With a tough road game against Iowa on deck, this is the spot for the Wolverines to turn it around. Note that Indiana is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 lined road games and a long-term 41-66 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Michigan, meanwhile, is a long-term 55-35 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less, which is also the situation here. Take Michigan (10*). |
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12-05-23 | Rangers -130 v. Senators | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The road team has owned this series in recent years and that includes the Rangers taking each of the last three matchups in Ottawa. I like New York's chances again on Tuesday as it checks in playing some of its best hockey of the season having won six of its last seven contests overall. The Senators snapped their three-game losing streak with a 2-0 shutout win over the Kraken on Saturday but remain just 5-7 on home ice this season. Ottawa has scored a grand total of four goals over its last three games. In stark contrast, the Rangers scored six in their most recent game on Sunday. Take New York (10*). |
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12-05-23 | George Mason v. Tennessee -15 | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over George Mason at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. George Mason is a good team but it is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time in Knoxville on Tuesday. The Volunteers are coming off three straight losses including a disappointing 100-92 defeat on the road against North Carolina last Wednesday. Having had nearly a week off to stew on that poor performance, I look for a massive response from the Vols here. Remember, Tennessee was a perfect 4-0 at one point with quality wins over Wisconsin and Syracuse and a near-miss against Purdue. George Mason hasn't really played anyone yet and will be taking a big step up in class following Saturday's win on the road against Toledo. Note that Tennessee is a long-term 95-69 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS defeats, as is the case here. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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12-04-23 | Pelicans v. Kings -4 | 127-117 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over New Orleans at 10 pm et on Monday. New Orleans has lost three straight games, both SU and ATS, on the road and is a miserable 1-6 in its last seven contests away from home. The Kings should relish the opportunity to face the Pelicans here in the in-season tournament quarter-final round as it gives them a shot at revenge after dropping a pair of games in New Orleans earlier in the campaign. Sacramento is a different team now, healthy and able to hang with the league's elite, as we saw on Saturday against Denver. Noting that the Kings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after losing four or five of their last six games ATS, as is the case here, we'll confidently back them tonight. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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12-04-23 | Penguins -123 v. Flyers | 1-2 | Loss | -123 | 21 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Penguins outshot the Flyers 6-1 in overtime on Saturday night but couldn't find the back of the net and ultimately fell in a shootout. I look for them to bounce back on Monday as they get a quick rematch in Philadelphia. Note that the Flyers are just 5-7 on home ice this season, averaging just 2.8 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Penguins check in 6-5 on the road where they've put up an impressive 3.6 goals per contest. Pittsburgh has come away victorious in three of its last four trips to Philadelphia. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Packers | 19-27 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Packers caught the Lions flat-footed on Thanksgiving Day. It almost seemed as if Detroit thought Green Bay would simply roll over but that was far from the case. Here, I expect the Chiefs to be business-like in their approach once again, noting they're a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games against non-conference opponents. As expected we heard plenty of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' whispers following their 21-17 home loss to the Eagles on MNF a couple of weeks ago. After a sluggish start in Las Vegas last Sunday, Kansas City eventually rolled to a two-touchdown victory. I expect plenty of carry-over from that flawless second half performance on Sunday night in Green Bay. This is another 'get right' spot against a Packers squad that just isn't as good as it looked in posting consecutive wins over the last two weeks. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Blue Jackets v. Bruins UNDER 6.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I expect the Blue Jackets to have a miserable time trying to break through offensively against the Bruins on Sunday, noting that Boston has allowed just 2.1 goals per game on home ice this season and despite the victory in Toronto last night, should be in a foul mood after blowing a 3-2 lead with seconds remaining in the third period. Columbus is coming off a 4-2 win over the Senators on Friday but continues to struggle on the season, averaging just 2.9 goals per contest. Meanwhile, Boston's offensive ceiling hasn't been all that high lately as it has produced four goals or less in seven consecutive games. Take the under (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Browns +4.5 v. Rams | 19-36 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm not ready to write off the Browns just yet. Yes, they're coming off a disheartening loss to the Broncos in Denver last Sunday in a game that completely got away from them. I fully expect them to bounce back this week as they stay on the road to face the Rams, who are in a fairly obvious letdown spot off consecutive wins, including a blowout victory in Arizona last week. Are the Rams as good as they looked against the Cardinals? Probably not. Are the Browns as bad as they appeared against the Broncos? Certainly not. Keep in mind, prior to that loss in Denver, Cleveland had reeled off three consecutive wins SU and four in a row ATS. Yes, the Browns offense remains extremely limited but I think their defense can do a lot of the heavy lifting on Sunday, ultimately creating enough splash plays to give their offense some short fields to work with. Note that the Rams are a woeful 3-10 in their last 13 home games as a favorite of seven points or less. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games against NFC opponents and 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case at the time of writing. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the visiting Panthers as they look to come away with something positive after firing head coach Frank Reich. Carolina has appeared lifeless this season, winning just once in 11 games. Needless to say, when a head coach gets fired, the players tend to take it upon themselves to show up and show out the next week. Tampa Bay had its four-game ATS winning streak snapped with a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. The once-stout Bucs defense has now allowed 24 points or more in four of its last five contests. Note that Tampa Bay is a miserable 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following consecutive road defeats while Carolina is a long-term 142-117 ATS in an underdog role. We've seen an incredible 12 straight meetings in this series decided by more than a field goal but I think there's a good chance that this one goes down to the wire on Sunday. Take Carolina (10*). |
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12-03-23 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh -1 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Clemson at 2 pm et on Sunday. Clemson is ripe for a letdown on Sunday following its big upset win on the road against Alabama back on Tuesday. The Tigers took advantage of a struggling Crimson Tide defense in that contest but shouldn't be so fortunate on Sunday as they stay on the road to face a Pitt defense that ranks 46th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Panthers offense was a no-show against Missouri last time out, perhaps dealing with a letdown of their own following a blowout win over Oregon State. I'm confident we'll see Pitt bounce back here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-03-23 | Cardinals +7 v. Steelers | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm just not ready to buy in to the Steelers being installed as considerable favorites against any opponent, let alone a Cardinals squad that's fresh off an embarrassing 37-14 rout at the hands of the division rival Rams last week. Arizona has now dropped back-to-back games but is still 3-2 ATS over its last five contests. The Steelers picked up a massive come-from-behind win in Cincinnati last Sunday but let's not start planning the parade just yet. That came against a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad. Note that Arizona is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when priced as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.6 points in that situation. I think the pacific time zone team playing an early game in the east angle is overblown and will grab all the points I can get with the Cards on Sunday. Take Arizona (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans OVER 47 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's all systems go for the Texans with breakout wide receivers Tank Dell and Noah Brown expected to play on Sunday in this critical home matchup against the Broncos. We know what the Houston offense is capable of and it should push the Broncos defense much harder than either of their last two opponents did in the banged-up Vikings and Browns (both of those games were played in Denver). On the flip side, Denver's offense is no longer the plodding, methodical unit taking what it can get. The Broncos have reeled off five straight wins, scoring 24 or more points in three of their last four contests. Finally with at true RB1 in Javonte Williams and a rejuvenated WR duo in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, the Broncos can give the Texans defense some problems in this game. Note that the 'over' is 29-14 in the Texans last 43 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-02-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -5 | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. I like the Lakers to bounce back following Thursday's no-show in Oklahoma City. The Rockets had the wind taken out of their sails in a double-digit loss in Denver on Wednesday. Houston is now an even 8-8 on the season following consecutive losses to open this road trip. Note that the Rockets are now 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games as a road underdog, outscored by an average margin of 12.2 points in that situation. I believe there's still considerable regression in order for Houston as it is off to a better start to the season than most anticipated. The Lakers have been a mixed bag, but playing at home with rest and with a difficult matchup against the Suns on deck, I look for them to prevail here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-02-23 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -216 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Washington at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. Every once in a while we'll step up with a play on a big favorite on the ice and this is one such spot. Vegas checks in off a 4-1 win in Vancouver. Meanwhile, Washington has won back-to-back games in Los Angeles and Anaheim. I like the revenge spot for the Caps here after they dropped a 3-0 decision in Washington in mid-November. Note that Washington is just 4-14 after scoring five goals or more in its previous game over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.0 goal on average in that situation. The Knights are 34-13 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Take Vegas (8*). |
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12-02-23 | USC v. Gonzaga -3.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over USC at 10 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for Gonzaga as it looks to show out in front of the Vegas crowd against USC on Saturday. The Bulldogs have actually dropped the cash in consecutive games but I like the bounce-back spot in that regard here. USC hasn't been anything special this season, splitting its step-up games against Kansas State and Oklahoma. Gonzaga is a true national title contender once again this season in my opinion but I don't think we've seen its best effort just yet. Note that the Bulldogs are 8-1 when coming off a home game in which they won SU but failed to cover ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 25.7 points in that situation. Take Gonzaga (8*). |
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12-02-23 | Louisville +1.5 v. Florida State | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisville plus the points over Florida State at 8 pm et on Saturday. Really tough spot for Florida State here as it marches on without Jordan Travis and possibly its backup quarterback as well against a Louisville squad that will be looking to play spoiler on Saturday in Charlotte. The Seminoles survived their first test without Travis, defeating rival Florida 24-15 last Saturday. This is a much tougher matchup, however, as they go up against a Cardinals squad that dropped a 38-31 decision against Kentucky last week but checks in 10-2 on the season and a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. Florida State can only lean on its defense so much, noting that it mustered just 224 total yards on offense in last week's victory. Last year, Louisville let the Seminoles off the hook at home, blowing a 21-14 halftime lead in an eventual 35-31 defeat. Expect the Cardinals to get their revenge here. Take Louisville (10*). |
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12-02-23 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs +101 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendars since dropping a 3-2 decision in Boston on November 2nd - their fourth straight loss against the Bruins. Toronto checks into this rematch having won back-to-back games while Boston snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-0 shutout win over the lowly Sharks on Thursday. The Leafs should be able to 'empty the tank' in this contest as they won't play again until December 7th in Ottawa. Meanwhile, Boston has a quick turnaround with a home game against Columbus on deck on Sunday. Take Toronto (10*). |
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12-02-23 | Washington +4.5 v. Colorado State | 81-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday. It would be difficult for the Washington basketball team not to gain some inspiration from the Huskies football team, which won the final Pac-12 Championship with a thrilling upset victory over Oregon, right here in Las Vegas, last night. On Saturday, the Huskies will look to stage an upset of their own on the hardwood as they take on undefeated Colorado State in this neutral court affair. I like Washington's chances of overwhelming the Rams with its up-tempo style, currently ranked 43rd in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Huskies have plenty of room to grow as they currently sit 58th in the nation in terms of KenPom's overall rankings. Colorado State, off to a perfect start to the campaign as I mentioned, is likely in line for some regression, currently ranked a lofty 22nd in the country, also according to KenPom. Take Washington (8*). |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Washington at 8 pm et on Friday. The Ducks have to be happy to be afforded the opportunity to avenge their only loss suffered this season on Friday against Washington. Oregon actually dominated most of the way against the Huskies back on October 14th in Seattle, racking up over 500 yards of total offense, but Washington came up with the critical plays late and ultimately secured a wild 36-33 victory. I don't expect this game to be as tightly-contested. The Pac-12 Championship Game was introduced in 2011 and since then we've seen plenty of blowouts. In fact, eight of the 12 games have been decided by 18 or more points. While Oregon's offense kept humming down the stretch, we saw some regression from Michael Penix and the Huskies. Washington could only muster 22 and 24 points in its final two regular season games against Oregon State and Washington State, completing just 31-of-61 passes for 366 yards in those contests. That's not how you want to be playing leading up to a showdown with mighty Oregon, especially when the Ducks have been spotted an extra day of preparation (they last played on Black Friday in a glorified scrimmage against rival Oregon State). Take Oregon (8*). |
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12-01-23 | Knicks +1.5 v. Raptors | 119-106 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We're able to back the Knicks at a discount here thanks to them playing last night at home against Detroit. The trip to Toronto is anything but gruelling and I won't hesitate to fade the Raptors off Wednesday's win over the Suns. Toronto has strung together three straight home victories after starting the campaign with four losses in its first four games at Scotiabank Arena. Still, the Raptors are a losing team on the season at 9-10 and they'll be in tough here as they look for a third straight win over the Knicks for the first time since 2021-22. New York is a long-term winner on the road at 35-20 ATS in its last 55 contests in enemy territory. After this game the Knicks will have three days off before wrapping up this two-game road trip with a difficult game in Milwaukee. Look for New York to 'empty the tank' on Friday. Take New York (8*). |
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11-30-23 | Clippers v. Warriors -5 | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. Last night in Sacramento, the Clippers laid waste to the same Kings that just defeated the Warriors two nights ago. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Thursday as Golden State has the rest advantage. The Warriors are just 3-6 at home this season but I would certainly anticipate them turning that record around sooner rather than later. Note that despite last night's win, the Clippers remain just 3-6 on the road. Golden State is 21-8 in its last 29 home games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.6 points on average in that situation. The Warriors are also 27-14 ATS in their last 41 home games when listed as a favorite of six points or less. Take Golden State (8*). |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks +9 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 58 h 60 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Cowboys have rattled off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, but those came against three of football's worst teams in the Giants, Panthers and Commanders. While the Seahawks are reeling off back-to-back losses, they're still 6-5 on the season and I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle on Thursday night. Seattle ran into an incredibly difficult matchup last week, playing with a number of key contributors banged-up on a short week against the red hot 49ers. I do think the extra couple of days off will help the Seahawks here. Note that Dallas is a long-term 17-38 ATS when coming off five or six ATS wins in its last seven games, as is the case here. It is also 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by 28 points or more and 14-28 ATS in its last 42 contests following a home victory by 21 points or more. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are a long-term 59-35 ATS when coming off consecutive losses and 43-22 ATS in their last 65 games after scoring 17 points or less in back-to-back games. Regardless what has separated these two NFC foes over the years, the Seahawks have stayed competitive. You would have to go back eight meetings, all the way to 2011, to find the last time Dallas defeated Seattle by more than seven points. The underdog has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups in this series. Take Seattle (10*). |
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11-30-23 | Oilers v. Jets +106 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg over Edmonton at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Jets have lost two games in a row including a shutout defeat at the hands of the Stars to open this homestand on Tuesday. I look for them to bounce back on Thursday as they host the Oilers. Note that Winnipeg is 10-2 in its last 12 games after losing by two goals or more against a division opponent in their previous game, as is the case here. The Jets have outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. While the Oilers have turned things around with three straight victories, they're still just 4-8 on the road this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals. The Jets have taken three of four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Boston College +2 v. Vanderbilt | 80-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Vanderbilt at 9:15 pm et on Wednesday. This line doesn't add up as Boston College heads out on the road to face Vanderbilt on Wednesday. The Eagles have actually faced the considerably more difficult schedule to this point this season - 157th toughest in the nation according to KenPom compared to Vandy's 298th ranking in that department. Yet Boston College has knocked down five more field goals per game (on the same number of additional field goal attempts) while holding the opposition to one less made field goal on one fewer attempt per contest. Take Boston College (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Jazz v. Grizzlies -4 | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Utah at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are mired in an incredible shooting slump, knocking down 37 or fewer field goals in each of their last four games - all losses (1-3 ATS). Of course, they've also faced a tough schedule over that stretch, going up against the Celtics, Rockets (who are much improved defensively), Suns and Timberwolves. The good news is, the Jazz will come knocking on Wednesday and Utah has been one of the league's worst defensive teams this season. The Jazz check in having allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 44 or more field goals. On the flip side, Utah has connected on 38 or fewer field goals itself in four consecutive games. This is a double-revenge spot for the Grizzlies after the Jazz took each of the first two meetings this season. Also note that this is a critical spot for Memphis to bag a victory as it will head out on the road for a difficult back-to-back set in Dallas and Phoenix next. Take Memphis (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State | 72-79 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Bradley minus the points over Murray State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I like Bradley as it heads out on the Missouri Valley Conference road to face Murray State on Wednesday. The Braves have faced the considerably tougher schedule this season according to KenPom - 122nd most difficult in the nation according to KenPom. In stark contrast, the Racers have faced just the 259th toughest slate of opponents. In spite of that, Bradley has connected on just two fewer field goals per game on five fewer field goal attempts while holding opponents to five fewer made field goals on the same number of field goal attempts allowed. Take Bradley (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over North Carolina at 7:15 pm et on Wednesday. It's early in the season but this is a big spot for the Volunteers as they check in off consecutive losses against Purdue and Kansas in Hawaii. Tennessee has had a full week off to stew on that most recent defeat at the hands of the Jayhawks and I like the way the Vols match up against the Tar Heels on Wednesday. North Carolina has pushed the pace and shot reasonably well, knocking down 28 or more field goals in five of six games so far this season. Here, they'll run into the nation's top-ranked team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in Tennessee. While the Vols have gone up against the 15th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season, the Tar Heels have faced the 127th. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Canadiens v. Blue Jackets -126 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Columbus over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Canadiens have taken three straight meetings in this series - their longest such streak against the Blue Jackets since way back in 2015. I look for that run to come to an abrupt halt on Wednesday, however, as Montreal wraps up its long road trip in Columbus. Note that the Habs haven't taken the ice since Saturday when they suffered a 4-0 defeat in Los Angeles. This has been an interesting road trip as Montreal started in Boston on November 18th before travelling to California for a three-game in four-night set that saw it take four of a possible six points. Having been idle since Saturday, I believe the Habs are in danger of coming out flat against an opponent that doesn't draw a great deal of motivation on Wednesday. Montreal would be wrong to overlook the lowly Blue Jackets here as Columbus has been playing well. The Jackets check in winners of three of their last four games including a convincing 5-2 win over the first-place Bruins on Monday. Note that the Habs are a woeful 2-17 in their last 19 games following four or more consecutive road games. Take Columbus (10*). |
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11-29-23 | VMI +4.5 v. Navy | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on VMI plus the points over Navy at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the underdog Keydets as they face Navy on Wednesday. VMI checks in just 2-5 on the season but it has faced a fairly difficult schedule - the 110th toughest in the nation according to KenPom. Navy is 0-4 yet has faced only the 250th most difficult schedule by the same metrics. Note that the Keydets are averaging a whopping 10 more made field goals per game than the Midshipmen, despite getting off just six additional field goal attempts. From three-point range, VMI is knocking down two more shots while attempting just one more than Navy. It's a similar story defensively. VMI has held opponents to just 25 made field goals per game - just one more than Navy despite allowing nine additional field goal attempts per contest. VMI took this matchup by eight points as an 11-point home favorite last season. That 'revenge' angle is a big reason why Navy is installed as a considerable favorite at home on Wednesday. I believe the Midshipmen are laying too many points. Take VMI (10*). |
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11-29-23 | American v. Harvard -8.5 | 75-80 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Harvard minus the points over American at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think we have a blowout on our hands here as Harvard hosts American U on Wednesday. American has faced only the 330th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season according to KenPom. Compare that with Harvard, which has gone up against the 87th toughest slate of opponents. Despite that, the Crimson have averaged two more made field goals on the same number of field goal attempts per game. On seven fewer three-point attempts per contest the Crimson have knocked down just two fewer three-point field goals. Defensively, Harvard has yielded two fewer made field goals per game on seven more field goal attempts per contest. The Crimson roll on Wednesday. Take Harvard (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Gardner-Webb -1.5 v. Queens NC | 80-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gardner-Webb minus the points over Queens at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Gardner-Webb has quietly faced the 11th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Queens has gone up against the 208th toughest slate of opponents. With that said, both teams check in sporting identical 3-4 records. All records aren't created equal though. Gardner-Webb has made good on two more field goals on one fewer field goal attempt per game than Queens while holding the opposition to seven fewer made field goals per contest. Queens has yielded those seven additional made field goals per game on only eight additional field goal attempts. Take Gardner-Webb (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Buffalo v. James Madison -21 | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This game has rout written all over it as James Madison hosts Buffalo on Wednesday. The Bulls have faced just the 258th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom yet they've gone a miserable 1-5 through six games. Meanwhile, James Madison has gone up against the 118th toughest slate of opponents and check in a perfect 6-0. The Dukes are averaging a whopping nine more made field goals per game compared to the Bulls, on just 11 additional field goal attempts per contest. Defensively, JMU has allowed four fewer made field goals per game on two additional attmepts. Take James Madison (8*). |
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11-28-23 | Warriors v. Kings -2 | Top | 123-124 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings enter this game with double-revenge on their minds having dropped both previous matchups with the Warriors this season. That comes on the heels of a hard-fought seven-game series last April. There has really been little separating these two teams, noting the most recent matchup went right down to the wire with the Warriors prevailing by a single point in San Francisco on November 1st. Since then, the Kings have gotten healthier with De'Aaron Fox returning to the lineup. They snapped a two-game slide with a dominant 124-111 win over the red hot Timberwolves in Minnesota on Friday. The Warriors are coming off a less impressive victory (but non-cover) at home against the rebuilding Spurs on Saturday. Note that Golden State is mired in an 0-7-1 ATS slide. I think their better opportunity to snap out of that funk comes on Thursday night at home against the Clippers. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 road games following a win. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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11-28-23 | NC State +1.5 v. Ole Miss | 52-72 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Ole Miss at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Even as they come off consecutive ATS losses including their first SU defeat of the season against BYU last time out, I'm high on this Wolfpack squad and like their chances of handing Ole Miss its first loss of the campaign on Tuesday. Ole Miss is off to a perfect 5-0 start to head coach Chris Beard's tenure yet it checks in winless ATS at 0-5. The Rebels rank 33rd in the country in luck rating according to KenPom, meaning they're undoubtedly not quite as good as their flawless record indicates. In fact, KenPom has the Rebels 73 spots behind N.C. State in the overall rankings. Home court does matter and this will be N.C. State's first true road game of the season. However, we'll note that Ole Miss is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a victory and 7-17 ATS in its last 24 lined home games when listed as a favorite. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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11-28-23 | Stars -115 v. Jets | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Jets had their five-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Predators in Nashville on Sunday. They return home in a tough spot on Tuesday as they host a Stars squad that will certainly be in a foul mood after dropping back-to-back contests at home against Vegas and Calgary. Note that Dallas has actually been a much better team on the road than at home this season, going 7-2 including a victory right here in Winnipeg earlier this month. It's worth noting that this is only the Stars second losing streak this season. The last time they dropped two games in a row they responded with a 5-2 victory in Columbus the next time they took the ice. Dallas is a long-term 76-39 when coming off a home loss by three goals or more, as is the case here, and 13-4 in its last 17 road games after giving up four or more goals in its previous game. Meanwhile, Winnipeg is just 2-7 when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last three seasons and 0-5 the last five times it has come off eight victories in its last 10 contests. Take Dallas (10*). |
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11-27-23 | Pelicans -3.5 v. Jazz | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Jazz took the opener of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday but I look for the Pelicans to answer back on Monday. Utah snapped a four-game losing streak with that victory. Despite the win, it remains in a bit of a funk offensively having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three straight contests. New Orleans entered Saturday's game on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run. The Pelicans had made good on more than 40 field goals in seven straight contests prior to Saturday's poor performance. They also enter Monday's game having held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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11-27-23 | Lightning v. Avalanche -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Tampa Bay at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Lightning defeated the Hurricanes 8-2 in Carolina on Friday despite firing just 14 shots on goal. The Avalanche enter Monday's contest playing some of their best hockey of the season, winners of three games in a row and six of their last seven overall. You would have to go back four games to find the last time they allowed more than two goals. Note that the Lightning are just 13-17 after winning three of their last four games over the last two seasons while the Avalanche check in 56-18 in the same situation over the last three seasons. Colorado has dropped two straight home matchups against Tampa Bay but still owns a long-term 13-9-1 record at home against the Bolts. Take Colorado (10*). |
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11-26-23 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Raiders | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. With whispers of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs' swirling following Monday's loss to the Eagles - their second defeat in their last three games - we'll confidently back Kansas City to rebound against the division rival Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs ran into an elite opponent on Monday and paid the price for their mistakes in a 21-17 defeat. Yes, Kansas City's offense has sputtered but I see this as a 'get right' spot against the Raiders on Sunday. The Chiefs should be happy to see the black and silver on the other side of the field as they've scored 40, 32, 35, 41, 48, 30 and 31 points in the last seven meetings in this series. Las Vegas has performed admirably for rookie head coach Antonio Pierce but I'm also not sure that they've taken any opponent's best punch. They're likely to get just that here as Kansas City aims to rebound. Note that the Raiders are a woeful 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games following three straight ATS victories, as is the case here. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars v. Texans +2 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Jaguars rarely beat the Texans. They did blow out an awful Houston team last January but that marked their only victory in the last 11 meetings in this series. Earlier this season, the Texans went into Jacksonville and pounded the Jags 37-17. I see little reason why this ascending Texans squad can't deliver another win on Sunday. Despite failing to cover the spread in last week's 21-16 win over the Cardinals, I came away impressed by Houston once again. The Texans were in a prime letdown spot in that contest, fresh off a big upset win over the Bengals in Cincinnati the week previous. If it weren't for them shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers deep in Cardinals territory that result would have been far more lopsided. Jacksonville predictably rebounded from an embarrassing 34-3 rout at the hands of the 49ers the week previous by shredding the reeling Titans last Sunday. Note that the Jags are a long-term 10-27 ATS when coming off a game in which they outgained the opposition by 150 or more total yards, as is the case here. Take Houston (8*). |
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11-26-23 | Steelers -1 v. Bengals | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Steelers dropped a heart-breaker in Cleveland last week and proceeded to fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada in a move that was a long-time coming in the eyes of most. Here, I look for Pittsburgh to take full advantage of a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad that enters this game reeling off back-to-back losses. It's been a lost season for Cincinnati by most accounts. It started the campaign with consecutive losses (and went 0-3-1 ATS in its first four games) with Joe Burrow hobbled with a calf injury. There was a brief resurgence once Burrow got healthy but now he's out for the season, leaving undrafted backup QB Jake Browning to run the offense. That spells trouble against a ferocious Steelers defense that has proven it can win games all on its own this season. Pittsburgh has a new offensive coordinator but won't put too much on the offense in this particular game as it is well-positioned to win ugly. Notably, the Steelers have owned this series in Cincinnati over the years and even when they've fielded weaker teams, they've still managed to split the last four meetings in this stadium. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-25-23 | California v. UCLA -9 | 33-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. While many will consider this to be a big-time letdown spot for UCLA coming off last week's 'upset' win over rival USC, I don't necessarily see it that way. A little bit of the shine was taken off that win thanks to the Trojans recent swoon. While it was a much-needed victory for the Bruins given they entered riding a two-game losing streak, I don't expect it to knock them off course or cloud their focus entering Saturday's regular season finale against Cal. The Bears need a win to gain Bowl eligibility but given they've won just once in the last six meetings in this series - that coming when the Bruins were mired in a down year in 2019 - I don't think it's in the cards for them this season. The Bruins have all but stamped out opposing ground attacks this season, allowing a minuscule 2.2 yards per rush, and that's precisely the area Cal needs to excel at in order to find success. Note that the Bears have thrown for 300+ yards just twice this season and not since Week 4 in a 27-point rout at the hands of Washington. UCLA hasn't thrown for 300 or more yards at all this season but the Bruins figure to feast on the ground against a Cal defense that 125 or more rushing yards in five of its last six contests. Note that the Bears are a long-term loser at 32-40 ATS in their last 72 lined games following consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, UCLA checks in a profitable 60-47 ATS in its last 107 lined contests after losing two of its last three games ATS. Take UCLA (8*). |
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11-25-23 | Georgia -23.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I'm not a big believer in 'look-ahead' spots. That's the thinking behind some backing the underdog Yellow Jackets here with Georgia headed for an SEC Championship Game showdown with Alabama next week. I do think there's some merit in the 'letdown' angle, however, and that's precisely the situation Georgia Tech is in here after it gained Bowl eligibility with last week's win over hapless Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets can't stop the run - they've been torched for a ridiculous 160+ rushing yards in all but one of their 11 games this season and have given up 200+ on seven different occasions. There's reason to believe the top-ranked Bulldogs can get whatever they want offensively in this game while their defense is more than capable of taking care of the rest against a mistake-prone Yellow Jackets offense. Last year's meeting between these in-state rivals was closer than expected. I don't believe this one will be. Take Georgia (10*). |
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11-25-23 | 76ers v. Thunder +1.5 | 127-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Philadelphia at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. As much as I hate to fade the 76ers coming off a loss, there’s just too much upside to ignore with the 11-4 Thunder. I think this is a bit of a tough spot for Philadelphia to get up for in an early start on Saturday, even coming off that double-digit defeat in Minnesota. While the Thunder’s offense may grab the headlines, their defense has been on point as they check in ranked top-five in the league in defensive rating. That matched up with a top-five scoring offense is tough to beat. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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11-24-23 | Spurs v. Warriors -10.5 | 112-118 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over San Antonio at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is a big spot for the Warriors as they look to start to turn things around after yet another loss suffered two nights ago in Phoenix. Golden State checks in a miserable 0-6-1 ATS over its last seven games but is favored by double-digits for a reason here, at least in my opinion. After Friday's game the Warriors will have three days off - they certainly don't want to spend that time stewing over another poor performance. San Antonio is coming off an ATS victory over the Clippers on Wednesday but that was of little consolation as it dropped its 10th game in a row SU. The Spurs offense has run dry, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. The future may be bright in San Antonio, but this continues to be a trying 23-24 campaign. Note that the Warriors check in a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games following a loss to a division opponent, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 17.9 points in that situation. Golden State is also 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here. Take Golden State (8*). |
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11-24-23 | Jets v. Panthers -128 | 3-0 | Loss | -128 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Jets took the opener of this Florida swing in overtime against the Lightning two nights ago. Sweeping through the Sunshine State doesn't happen all that often and I don't expect Winnipeg to accomplish that feat here. The Panthers were completely shut down by the Bruins on Wednesday but I like their chances of bouncing back here. Note that the Jets are a miserable 3-16 in their last 19 road games after winning four or more contests in a row, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Take Florida (8*). |
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11-24-23 | Utah State -4.5 v. New Mexico | 44-41 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over New Mexico at 3:30 pm et on Friday. It may be Senior Day but New Mexico finds itself in a massive letdown spot at home against Utah State on Friday. The Lobos put forth arguably their best performance of the season in a big upset win at Fresno State last week. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from dropping a 42-14 decision at Boise State and the last time we saw them play here at University Stadium they were wrecked 56-14 by UNLV. Utah State needs a victory here to become Bowl eligible and I think it's important not to knock the Aggies down too many notches after last week's blown opportunity in a 45-10 loss on the blue turf in Boise. Prior to that, Utah State had been playing some of its best football, reeling off consecutive wins at San Diego State and at home against Nevada. While it's been an up-and-down year to be sure, I've seen enough growth from this Utah State squad (since a 39-21 beatdown at Air Force in mid-September) to believe it's deserving of going Bowling. Take Utah State (8*). |
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11-23-23 | NC State -7.5 v. Vanderbilt | 84-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Vanderbilt at 10 pm et on Thursday. N.C. State hasn't really played anyone yet so it's tough to get a great gauge on just how good the Wolfpack are. I expect Kevin Keatts' crew to relish the opportunity to face a 'name' opponent from the SEC in Las Vegas on Thursday. Vanderbilt hasn't accomplished much since Jerry Stackhouse took over as head coach in 2019. While the Commodores enter this game off three straight victories, don't forget they opened their season with an outright loss as 16-point favorites against Presbyterian. Vandy's opponents have been stuffing the stat sheet as it has allowed 25, 24, 29 and 28 made field goals despite holding three of four opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. The Wolfpack appear to be in midseason form offensively, knocking down 29, 29 and 32 field goals in their first three contests. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 31-13 | Push | 0 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The 49ers are coming off consecutive 'under' results, a curious outcome considering they've gotten as healthy as they've been all season on offense over that stretch with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel among those returning. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are fresh off a very low-scoring affair against the Rams as they dropped a 17-16 decision in Los Angeles. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday with a higher-scoring result than most are expecting. The Niners should feast on a Seahawks defense that has been relatively soft against the run and in the middle of the field. Yes, Seattle boasts a tremendous cornerback duo in Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon but that hasn't stopped opponents from attacking it relentlessly through the air. On the flip side, the Seahawks offense is admittedly banged up. QB Geno Smith is expected to play but is certainly at risk of sitting at some point due to his shoulder injury. As strange as it sounds, I like Seattle's offense with backup QB Drew Lock at the helm - especially as an 'over' bettor as his presence generally leads to plenty of 'splash' plays, often to his team's detriment. Seahawks home games have been considerably higher-scoring (47.2 points per game) than their road affairs (39.6 ppg) this season and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 54 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This matchup produced only 46 total points last season in a game that had a closing total of 63 points. So that potential shootout fizzled but I don't believe this one will. Ole Miss has been involved in its share of high-scoring affairs this season but its most recent contest reached only 38 points in a blowout win over Louisiana-Monroe. In general, most of the Rebels games have either involved them lighting it up or the opposition doing so. There's really been no in-between. Here, Ole Miss should break off its share of big plays on the ground against a Mississippi State defense that has been matador-like against the run when it's mattered most - for example it is just one game removed from getting ripped for 246 yards on 45 rush attempts against Texas A&M. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been all that electric this season. It's largely been a disappointment, in fact. However, Mississippi State has also run up against a pretty brutal schedule since Week 4, facing the gauntlet of Alabama at home, Arkansas and Auburn on the road, Kentucky at home and Texas A&M on the road with a couple of gimme non-conference matchups mixed in (the Bulldogs scored 41 points in wins over Western Michigan and Southern Miss). Note that the 'over' is 11-3 in Mississippi State's last 14 lined home contests, leading to an average total of 59.4 points. Take the over (10*). |