Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-23 | Bills v. Commanders +6.5 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -104 | 95 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bills had little trouble shaking off a season-opening loss to the Jets, rebounding to crush the Raiders at home as a big favorite last Sunday. With that being said, I do expect them to be in for a fight in Washington this week. The Commanders are off to a surprising 2-0 start (to some). A win was certainly expected in their opener against the lowly Cardinals while last week's 'upset' victory in Denver was of the mild variety to be sure. Regardless, I do feel Washington matches up reasonably well with Buffalo this week and we're being offered a generous helping of points. The Commanders always seem to boast a fierce pass rush and this year has been no different. While few have paid much attention to their first two contests, they've racked up a whopping 10 sacks while applying heaps of pressure on opposing quarterbacks Joshua Dobbs and Russell Wilson. They'll be facing a much tougher opposing quarterback here, but also one that tends to get turnover-happy when under duress (as we saw in Week 1 against the Jets). Buffalo continues to employ a three-man rotation in the backfield and I think that has more to do with no one stepping up and taking the RB1 job than anything else. Washington hasn't given opposing running backs much room to run, allowing only 3.4 yards per rush so far this season. On the flip side, I think this Bills defense is beatable. I was fairly high on the Buffalo defense out of the gates this season, especially with the trio of Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde finally all healthy at the same time in the secondary. In watching their first two games, however, I've seen a defense that looks vulnerable, particularly in the back-end. Neither the Jets or Raiders had the personnel to really stretch the field (due to Aaron Rodgers' injury and Jimmy Garoppolo's ineptness) but both teams still came up with some splash plays through the air (the Raiders game-opening touchdown drive last Sunday comes to mind). Here, Commanders QB Sam Howell should be able to test Buffalo's pass defense, working behind an offensive line that is one of the more underrated in the entire league. Washington has speed to burn at the receiver position with Terry McLaurin leading the way. TE Logan Thomas is questionable to play this week but his possible absence would only mean more touches for the likes of McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Take Washington (10*). |
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09-24-23 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
AFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a smash spot for the Patriots defense as they line up against a Jets offense that is completely out of sorts after losing QB Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury in Week 1. Compounding matters is the fact that New York is also without LT Duane Brown, meaning it's all systems go for the New England pass rush on Sunday. Bill Bellichick has owned Jets QB Zach Wilson and given the fact that New England enters this game sporting an 0-2 record, I don't expect the Pats to hold anything back gameplan-wise on Sunday. I've actually come away encouraged by the Pats offensive play-calling through two games under coordinator Bill O'Brien. There's not a lot New England can do schematically to circumvent an outstanding Jets secondary in this matchup, but I do think the Pats can move the football well enough to let their defense take care of the rest on Sunday. The Jets are obviously in desperate need of a spark offensively but they're unlikely to get it until Zach Wilson is sent to the bench, perhaps in favor of another veteran quarterback. Dalvin Cook certainly hasn't been the answer out of the backfield. All he's doing is eating into the workload of RB Breece Hall. Try as they might, I don't expect the Jets to break through offensively on Sunday. Take New England (10*). |
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09-24-23 | Chargers v. Vikings OVER 54 | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is the highest total on Sunday's board and for good reason. While the Chargers are off to an 0-2 start, this might be one of their best matchups of the entire season as they face a Minnesota defense that doesn't get to opposing quarterbacks and doesn't defend the pass. Austin Ekeler is sidelined but that's of little consequence as the Chargers should be able to relentlessly attack the Vikings defense through the air on Sunday. Note that Minnesota is yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush this season, opening the door for Los Angeles to get whatever it wants offensively in this one. Likewise, the Vikings find themselves in a smash spot offensively as they are expected to welcome back a pair of key cogs on their offensive line in Christian Darrisaw and Garrett Bradbury. The sky really is the limit for this Minnesota offense, as we've seen glimpses of against the Bucs and Eagles in the first two weeks of the season. With the Chargers missing LB Eric Kendricks and perennially under-achieving on defense the door is open for the Vikes to go off at home on Sunday. Take the over (8*). |
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09-24-23 | New Mexico State v. Hawaii OVER 56.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Mexico State and Hawaii at 11:59 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter this game riding two-game 'under' streaks. I look for a different story to unfold as they match up on Saturday. New Mexico State certainly isn't known for its offense but it has come around with dual-threat QB Diego Pavia running the show. The Rainbow Warriors defense entered the season with some optimism thanks to plenty of returning talent. A season-ending injury to LB Logan Taylor set them back after getting off to a rough start. The good news for Hawaii is that it does have a pulse on offense this year. You wouldn't know if based on their lukewarm performance on the road against Oregon last Saturday but this group is capable of balling out, especially against a beatable defense like the Aggies. Both teams have shown sky-high ceilings in terms of offensive production in this matchup with New Mexico State putting up 45 points despite possessing the football for just over 27 minutes in last year's meeting. Hawaii is just one year removed from hanging 48 points on the Aggies and has scored 26 points or more in five straight meetings in this series. Take the over (8*). |
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09-23-23 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Dodgers here as they send Clayton Kershaw to the hill against the Giants on Saturday. Kershaw will be happy to be facing rival San Francisco, noting that he owns a career 2.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 55 outings against the Giants. His last four starts against them have resulted in Dodgers victories by scores of 7-4, 5-3, 7-3 and most recent 10-5 back on April 12th. Off a one-run performance last night, this is an ideal rebound spot for Los Angeles, noting that it still averages 5.3 runs per game at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 runs. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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09-23-23 | Memphis +6.5 v. Missouri | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 20 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Missouri at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. While both of these teams enter this matchup sporting identical 3-0 records, I think Memphis is the real deal while the jury is still out on Missouri. One thing I do know is the Tigers would likely prefer to be playing at their home stadium rather than at the cavernous Dome at America's Center in St. Louis (the former home of the Rams) after a raucous upset win over Kansas State in front of 62,000 Mizzou faithful last Saturday. The Tigers have the built-in advantage of having had a couple extra days of preparation after playing a week ago Thursday against Navy. The fact that Memphis 'only' won that game by four points certainly plays into our favor here as I think the Tigers are being overlooked by most. In watching that victory over Navy, it was clear that Memphis was the better team. It simply got caught flat-footed at times against the Midshipmen's triple-option. Missouri is hoping to have QB Brady Cook under center after he suffered a knee injury in last week's win. Regardless, I do expect the Mizzou Tigers to lean heavily on their ground attack here. In fact, I think both teams have a vested interest in churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten proceedings on Saturday. Remember, Mizzou is just one game removed from a narrow 23-19 home win over Middle Tennessee State. That game certainly could have gone either way. Were it not for the Tigers falling on a fumble in their own end zone over halfway through the fourth quarter, they just as easily could have lost that contest by the narrowest of margins. That's the same Middle Tennessee State team that is just 1-2 on the season and got drilled by 49 points by Alabama in Week 1. Memphis likely welcomed the test at the hands of Navy last week after cruising to wins by 42 and 34 points in its first two games this season. Take Memphis (10*). |
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09-23-23 | Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 58 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 22 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington State at 7 pm et on Saturday. Beavers QB D.J. Uiagalelei has looked like the right fit since transferring from Clemson, where he never lived up to sky-high expectations. With that said, he's been able to ease into proceedings with Oregon State by facing San Jose State, UC Davis and San Diego State in the first three games with the latter two contests coming at home. I do think the Beavers are in for a challenge on Saturday as they travel to Pullman to take on fellow undefeated Washington State. While the Cougars are coming off a 64-point explosion last Saturday, expectations should be tempered noting that came against an FCS opponent in Northern Colorado. This will be their toughest test to date - certainly from a defensive standpoint, with Oregon State having allowed a grand total of 33 points through three games. Back to Uiagalelei for a moment, he is coming off a two-interception game against San Diego State and I do expect the Beavers to scale things back a little here against an opportunistic Washington State defense. The Cougars boast one of the best pass rushes in the country led by ends Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking from the Beavers on Saturday as they look to get the football out of Uiagalelei's hands quickly and into the hands of their playmakers. The story isn't all that different for the Cougars. QB Cam Ward is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in my opinion. Yet, in a similar matchup two weeks ago at home against Wisconsin he completed just 20-of-32 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns - an efficient if not explosive performance. Ward was sacked seven times in the Cougars first two games against FBS foes this season so like the Beavers, I think we'll see the Cougars lean heavily on their short passing attack (and ground game) in an attempt to control proceedings at home on Saturday. This was an extremely high-scoring series from 2013 to 2020 but since then we've seen each of the last two matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total, including last year's 24-10 Oregon State victory in Corvallis. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-23 | Colorado v. Oregon -21 | 6-42 | Win | 100 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Colorado was riding a wave last week and that surge carried it to a tougher-than-expected overtime win over Colorado State. I don't think the wheels are about to come off for Prime's Buffaloes but I do think the schedule is going to play a factor in the short-term with this trip to Autzen Stadium followed by next week's showdown with USC in Boulder. The Ducks already have an 80+ point performance on their resume this season, albeit against an FCS opponent in Portland State. They easily could have broken 70 points last Saturday were it not for easing off the gas up huge in the second half against Hawaii. Oregon got whatever it wanted in that game and I'm not convinced this Saturday's affair will be all that different. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders has been able to pick apart opposing defenses with pinpoint accuracy through three games. He hasn't shown the ability to pick up yardage with his legs and has already absorbed a whopping 15 sacks. I would anticipate the Ducks attacking him from all angles on Saturday. While Oregon is known for its offensive prowess, it has it's share of ballers on the defensive side as well. Speaking of that Ducks offense, it is quite simply one of the most difficult attacks to defend in all of college football. QB Bo Nix looks completely in control of the offense in his second year at the helm. Oregon's schedule is going to get a lot tougher with road tests at Washington and Utah in the not so far-off distance. For now, we can expect another party in Eugene on Saturday afternoon. Take Oregon (8*). |
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09-23-23 | Boston College v. Louisville -13.5 | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Boston College at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a revenge spot for Louisville after it was stunned 34-33 as nearly a two-touchdown road favorite in this matchup last season. The Cardinals looked rather punchless in last week's 21-14 win at Indiana. Keep in mind, they had scored a whopping 95 points in two games prior to that. I look for them to get back on track here as they catch the Eagles in a letdown spot after giving Florida State all they could handle last week. It's worth noting that while Boston College did end up scoring 29 points in that contest, it was held out of the end zone from 10 minutes remaining in the first quarter until just over one minute was left in the third quarter. There was a point late in the third quarter where Florida State was up by three touchdowns before it let down its guard. Here, I'm confident we'll see the undefeated Cardinals pour it on, noting that they also let off the gas and it nearly cost them last week as they carried a 21-0 lead into halftime before giving up two unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter (that was it for scoring in that one). Take Louisville (8*). |
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09-22-23 | Boise State -6 v. San Diego State | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams has set the world on fire in the early going this season. Boise State got off to a miserable start with a blowout loss at Washington before dropping its home opener against Central Florida. It did have a true 'get right' performance in last week's rout of FCS squad North Dakota. I'm not sure how much bettors know about the Broncos just yet but I still think this team has the potential to have a positive year. San Diego State is off to a 2-2 start. It held up reasonably well defensively but couldn't produce enough offense in last week's loss at Oregon State. Here, I'm not convinced we'll see the Aztecs bounce back offensively against what I feel is a much better Boise State defense than most give it credit for (largely due to that awful performance against Washington in Week 1). I can't help but feel the book is out on Aztecs QB Jaylen Mayden. He stepped in and performed well last season but is off to a shaky start this year, especially as a passer (he did have a breakout rushing performance against FCS opponent Idaho State). The Aztecs don't have the same number of offensive weapons as the Broncos in my opinion. Boise State QB Taylen Green has been almost a mirror image to Mayden. I do like his upside as a passer and he also has a terrific backfield to lean on, even if George Holani can't go again here. Ashton Jeanty fumbled twice last week but did manage to score three touchdowns. He had a big performance against UCF two weeks ago, running for 115 yards while also adding 97 yards receiving. Again, it's the Broncos defense that I expect to fuel this performance on Friday. Boise State boasts a number of playmakers on that side of the football, led by star-in-the-making CB Rodney Robinson, and draws what I feel is a favorable matchup against an Aztecs offense that might be that bad. Take Boise State (8*). |
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09-22-23 | Royals v. Astros OVER 8 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Royals starter Cole Ragans has had a terrific season, at least since joining Kansas City early in the campaign. I do think he'll be in tough on Friday, however, as he faces the Astros for the second time in less than a week, noting that a number of Houston hitters have wore him out, including Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena (a combined 7-for-19 with five walks). As a team, the Astros are averaging an impressive 6.1 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. With that being, said Houston hasn't exactly been running away from the competition lately. It has lost six of its last nine games including two of three against these same Royals last weekend in Kansas City. Framber Valdez will get the start for the Astros on Friday. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) and that's worth noting as he has posted a 5.81 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in that situation this season (five starts, 27 2/3 innings), compared to a 2.83 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 23 starts on full rest. Behind Valdez is an Astros bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 4.63 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games. Of course, the Royals bullpen has had a tough time all season, recording a collective 5.19 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with 24 saves converted and 23 blown. Noting that Kansas City road games have totalled an average of 8.8 runs while Houston home games have reached 9.2 runs per game on average, we'll confidently back the 'over' on Friday. Take the over (8*). |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue UNDER 53.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Purdue at 7 pm et on Friday. Wisconsin entered this season with a new look on offense, aiming to ratchet up the pace and sling the football around the field a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing. So far, it's been a mixed bag. The Badgers opened the season with a dominant performance against Buffalo, rolling to a 38-17 victory. From there they travelled to face Washington State and dropped a 31-22 decision. Last week they forced six turnovers in a 35-14 home win over Georgia Southern. Wisconsin is in for a tough test on Friday as it faces a Purdue squad that will be in a foul mood following a 35-20 home loss to Syracuse last Saturday. Don't sleep on the Boilermakers defense. They were hung out to dry by the offense last week as Purdue turned the football over four times in that setback against the Orange. Keep in mind, the Boilers are just one game removed from holding Virginia Tech to 17 points on fewer than 300 total yards in Blacksburg. I do think we see a rather conservative offensive gameplan from Purdue here after last week's turnover-happy performance. The Boilers know they can ill afford to give a good Wisconsin offense any short fields to work with on Friday. For the most part, Purdue hasn't shown much big play potential on offense in the early going this season. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking down the field on Friday, noting that they did control the time of possession in last year's matchup with the Badgers, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes, albeit in a 35-24 defeat. Enough about Purdue, Wisconsin couldn't have been pleased with its defensive performance against Georgia Southern last week, allowing the Eagles to complete 33-of-52 passes for 383 yards. Were it not for all of the GSU turnovers, the end result might have been much different. In the Badgers toughest test so far this season they did hold an ascending Washington State offense to 'only' 31 points in enemy territory. In that contest, there was a stretch where the Badgers didn't allow an offensive touchdown for just shy of 39 minutes from early in the second quarter until the fourth quarter. All told, Wisconsin has given up seven offensive touchdowns in 12 quarters of action this season. Offensively, the Badgers would like to shift to a more pass-happy attack but so far they've topped out at 278 passing yards through three games. The Badgers ground attack is as good as any in the nation but I do think the Boilers can limit the big home run plays here. I'm very high on Purdue's defense in the second and third level in particular. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We saw a predictably high-scoring affair on Thursday Night Football last week as the Vikings and Eagles lit up the scoreboard in Philadelphia. I expect a much different story to play out this week as the Giants and 49ers do battle on a short week in Santa Clara. New York got off to a sluggish start in Arizona last Sunday but ultimately got it together in the second half in a massive come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals. The Giants will face a much more difficult test here, however, as the 49ers enter sporting a perfect 2-0 record off back-to-back road wins to open the campaign. I don't anticipate Giants QB Daniel Jones having much time to operate behind a banged-up offensive line. The 49ers boast one of the league's fiercest pass rushes and I'm certain we'll see Brian Daboll's employ a gameplan centered around Jones getting the football out quick, not to mention a healthy dose of the Giants ground game. The effectiveness of that New York backfield is in question with RB Saquon Barkley questionable to play after getting hurt on Sunday. For the 49ers, I look for them to go a little more conservative here as they play on a short week following consecutive road games. This is a game where they should be able to control proceedings from the jump and there should come a point where they can essentially take the air out of the football. While QB Brock Purdy has been efficient through the first two games (and throughout the early stages of his career) he does have a tendency to distribute the football close to the line of scrimmage rather than looking for big plays down field. I expect to see a number of long, clock-eating drives from the 49ers in particular in this one, which of course serves us well with the 'under'. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 131-90 with the Giants coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 63 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 51 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia State and Coastal Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This total has been climbing since opening, and for good reason. Coastal Carolina cruised to a 41-24 victory in this matchup last year but I'm anticipating a more competitive affair this time around and that should lend itself to a high-scoring contest. Georgia State actually brought in former Coastal Carolina defensive coordinator Chad Staggs to turn things around on that side of the football. The jury is still out as to whether that will be the case, however. The Panthers have performed well against a pair of bad offenses in Connecticut and Charlotte over the last two games but keep in mind, they gave up 35 points including four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch against FCS squad Rhode Island in their season-opener. This is a Georgia State defense that has lost a ton of key parts from last year's squad - keeping in mind, last year's defense wasn't very good to begin with. It's a similar story with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers lost two of their best defenders from a year ago in Jerrod Clark and Josaiah Stewart and again, that was a defense that wasn't very good. Offensively, both teams are loaded and led by experienced quarterbacks in Darren Grainger and Grayson McCall. Not household names by any means but two of the better leaders in the country. While many teams are already dealing with injuries to key players at the skill positions on offense, that's not the case with the Panthers and Chanticleers as they both enter with clean injury reports. In last year's meeting between these teams, Coastal Carolina held onto the football for more than 40 minutes. Yet that contest still produced 65 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Nationals dropped the opener of their three-game series against the White Sox but bounced back by taking the final two games. Washington hasn't had a day off since September 7th and will be right back at it on Thursday as it opens a four-game set against the Braves. Atlanta checks in off another losing series, this one at the hands of the Phillies. Yesterday's defeat came in heart-breaking fashion as the Braves rallied from three runs down to tie the game but ultimately fell in extra innings. I'm confident we'll see left-hander Max Fried guide them out of their slump on Thursday. Fried had his start pushed back due to a blister. A couple of extra days off probably isn't the worst thing at this time of year. While Fried owns an ERA well north of four in 15 career starts against the Nationals, that doesn't tell the whole story. Current Washington hitters have gone a combined 11-for-64 (.172) off of Fried with a grand total of just two extra-base hits. Washington will hand the ball to Jake Irvin. Like a lot of rookie starters, he has labored down the stretch, allowing a whopping 13 walks and nine earned runs over his last four outings. He's never faced any of the current Braves hitters before but I'm willing to bet on Atlanta's loaded lineup inflicting plenty of damage. Atlanta checks in averaging 5.7 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.5 runs on the road this season. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it does enter this series sporting a collective 3.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 27 saves converted and only 10 blown on the road this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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09-20-23 | Tigers v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Dodgers took the second game of this series by a 3-2 score. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring contest on Wednesday as Detroit sends Reese Olson to the hill against Bobby Miller in a matchup of rookie starting pitchers. Olson has admittedly pitched well over his last several starts. Keep in mind, three of his last four outings have come at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park in Detroit. He owns a 4.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season with the 'over' cashing in four of his six starts. Olson did shut out the White Sox over seven innings in his most recent road start but there were certainly some smoke and mirrors involved as he struck out just one batter in that contest. Bobby Miller has surpassed the 100-inning mark on the season and has shown signs of running out of steam, allowing eight earned runs in 12 2/3 innings over his last two outings. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) here after laboring through his last start in Seattle (three earned runs on six hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings). The Tigers have proven to be a scrappy bunch this season, entering Wednesday's action just 11 games under .500 (11-7 over their last 18 games). I do think they have a realistic shot at avoiding the series sweep here but the Dodgers are as consistent as it gets offensively, particularly at home and they'll undoubtedly inflict some damage against a rookie starting pitcher, not to mention a Tigers bullpen that hasn't had a day off since September 11th. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-23 | Guardians v. Royals OVER 9 | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. I expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Guardians and Royals wrap up their season series on Wednesday afternoon in Kansas City. Lucas Giolito will take the ball for Cleveland. He struck out a season-high 12 batters in his most recent outing. The only previous time he recorded double-digit strikeouts this season he followed it up by allowing four earned runs over seven innings in a game that totalled 16 runs back in late June. While Giolito has had success against Kansas City, much of that came earlier in his career. Kansas City will be seeing him for the sixth time since the start of last season having plated 12 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings against him over that stretch. Zack Greinke will counter for the Royals. To say that current Guardians hitters have worn him out would be an understatement. They've gone a combined 47-for-134 (.351) against him including a whopping 14 extra-base hits. Only Jose Ramirez has struggled against the veteran right-hander and a lot of that has had to do with balls simply not falling in as he's struck out just once in 19 at-bats against Greinke (four hits). While the Royals bullpen is in slightly better recent form, as a whole that unit has struggled at home this season, logging a 5.47 ERA and 1.56 WHIP (entering last night's action). The Guardians relief corps hasn't been much better on the road, recording a collective 4.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Between the two teams they've blown a ridiculous 51 saves this season (again entering last night's action) while converting 67. Take the over (8*). |
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09-19-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. While Nathan Eovaldi would like nothing more than to gain an ounce of 'revenge' against his former club after dropping a 10-6 decision in Boston the last time he faced them in July, he brings awful form into this outing. Eovaldi has made three starts since returning from a lengthy stint on the injured list and they haven't gone well (or lasted long). In those three trips to the hill he has posted a lofty 7.73 ERA and 2.43 WHIP. He has faced 37 batters over that stretch, allowing 17 of them to reach base. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Tanner Houck of the Red Sox. He's coming off a masterful six-inning shutout performance against the Yankees last time out. With that said, he's just one start removed from giving up nine earned runs over his previous 10 1/3 innings of work. He's been at his worst at night this season, recording a 5.44 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in nine starts with the 'over' cashing in six of those games. Keep in mind, the Rangers entered this series with their home games having produced an average total of 10.7 runs this season. With neither bullpen in solid form, the potential is there for late inning runs as well. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-23 | Mariners -165 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners got swept in a critical three-game series at home against the Dodgers and now head to Oakland licking their wounds as they look to bounce back and stay in A.L. Wild Card hunt. They've got the right guy on the mound to do just that in rookie Bryan Woo. He had his turn in the starting rotation skipped earlier this month out of concern his arm was tiring having logged north of 120 innings between the minors and bigs this season. That came on the heels of an ugly start in Cincinnati in which he allowed five earned runs over five innings without striking out a single batter. When he did return to the mound on September 12th, he delivered 5 2/3 innings of four-hit shutout ball, striking out eight without issuing a single walk. He'll be making his second career start against the A's on Monday. In his previous outing against them he twirled six shutout innings of three-hit ball in a 7-0 Mariners win on August 28th. J.P. Sears will counter for Oakland. He does own terrific numbers in four career starts against Seattle, logging a 0.86 WHIP and 0.95 WHIP. Keep in mind, the last time he saw the Mariners back in May, he wasn't necessarily fooling anyone, striking out just one batter over five innings. In a similar vein, Sears has reeled off victories in each of his last three starts overall, yet he has recorded a disappointing 9:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch, covering a span of 17 innings. The A's are just 4-9 in his 13 home starts this season where he has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The bullpens in this matchup have been a wash lately but there's no denying the Mariners relief corps has been the superior group as a whole this season. I like the spot for the Seattle 'pen here after Sunday's lopsided defeat against the Dodgers allowed it to use only two relievers, keeping its key arms rested for Monday's trip to Oakland. Note that Mariners relievers have combined to record a 3.26 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only one blown against divisional opponents this season. Take Seattle (8*). |
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09-18-23 | Saints -3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Carolina at 7:15 pm et on Monday. The Saints may not be an elite NFC team but I do think they'll be in the playoff conversation all season. Here, they'll look to keep pace with the division-leading Buccaneers and Falcons, who both secured their second straight wins to open the season yesterday afternoon. I think New Orleans is in excellent position to move to 2-0 as well with this favorable Monday night draw in Carolina. The Saints only eked out a one-point victory over Tennessee in what was a defensive slugfest last Sunday. There were lots of positives to take away from that low-scoring affair, however. QB Derek Carr looked very comfortable in the Saints pocket - this has the potential to be a terrific fit for the 32-year old quarterback. He won't be asked to do too much but does have the tools to distribute the football to a sneaky-good group of receivers and tight ends led by super sophomore Chris Olave. This is a potential blow-up spot for RB Jamaal Williams as well as he once again handles the lead back role. The Panthers were not good against the run in last Sunday's lopsided loss in Atlanta. Offensively, the Panthers have the potential to be one of the league's worst teams. While it's important not to overreact to Week 1 results, Carolina's 'O' looked lukewarm at best, relying heavily on Bryce Young's athleticism at quarterback to elevate a rag-tag cast of weapons (I use the term 'weapons' lightly in this case). The Saints defense put the clamps on the Titans offense last week and this is a similarly favorable matchup. Note that while the Panthers have won consecutive meetings in this series, their offensive ceiling remains low, producing 26 points or fewer in seven straight matchups with the Saints. In a similar vein, New Orleans has produced 18 points or less in each of the last four meetings but again, it brought in veteran QB Carr to give the offense a lift and I think we'll see it produce on Monday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys UNDER 38.5 | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams posted 'under' results in Week 1 and I expect more of the same as they match up on Sunday afternoon in Dallas. The Jets built their offense around Aaron Rodgers in the offseason so it's not stretch to say it's 'back to the drawing board' with Zach Wilson under center in the near-term. This is a nightmarish matchup against a Cowboys defense that appeared to be in midseason form against the other New York team last Sunday night. I certainly wouldn't anticipate an overly aggressive offensive gameplan from Gang Green here. With that being said, the Cowboys have to respect the Jets defense as well. New York made Josh Allen and the Bills look average at best in Monday's come-from-behind victory. While the Jets will give up their share of yardage on the ground, their secondary is among the best in the league and I don't think we'll see Mike McCarthy fire up a pass-first gameplan on Sunday afternoon. As a considerable home favorite, I believe it's in the Cowboys best interest to take what they can on the ground and effectively shorten proceedings here. Take the under (8*). |
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09-17-23 | Padres v. A's +154 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. A's starter Ken Waldichuk has enjoyed a nice turnaround as this season has gone on and enters this start in terrific form having allowed just five hits and one earned run over his last three outings, covering a span of 16 innings of work. He's expected to get the bulk of the work on Sunday, perhaps after rookie Joe Boyle gets the first inning in an 'opener' role. While the Padres have taken the first two games of this series, they're still just a team playing out the string, not a whole lot different from the A's. I look for Oakland to salvage Sunday's series finale as they take on Nick Martinez of San Diego. Martinez checks in sporting a rather pedestrian 4.18 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the season. In his two most recent appearances he didn't manage to strike out a single batter, allowing five-of-nine he faced to reach base in 1 2/3 innings. This amounts to a 'bullpen game' for the Padres and I look for the A's bats to take advantage. Take Oakland (8*). |
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09-17-23 | 49ers -7 v. Rams | Top | 30-23 | Push | 0 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Rams turned in one of the most impressive performances in Week 1 as they routed the division rival Seahawks, on the road no less. I expect them to suffer considerable regression here in Week 2, however, as they host the 49ers. Los Angeles is between a rock and a hard place defensively in this matchup. Last week, the Rams were able to play a very conservative style against the Seahawks, keeping everything in front of them and frustrating QB Geno Smith and his receiving corps all afternoon long. The 49ers are capable of taking full advantage of that type of gameplan though with RB Christian McCaffrey fresh off an efficient performance against the Steelers last week. It seemed as though the jury was still out on QB Brock Purdy over the course of the offseason but he looked incredible in a game managing role last Sunday and should be able to repeat that performance here. The Rams offense is still missing WR Cooper Kupp and QB Matt Stafford, while impressive in last week's win, is likely to be under duress for much of the afternoon on Sunday. The Steelers offense was arguably better positioned to move the football on this San Francisco defense last Sunday and couldn't get anything going. Pittsburgh managed only 62 rushing yards against the Niners defensive front and you could make the case that Los Angeles boasts a weaker backfield tandem in Cam Akers and Kyren Williams, even though the latter did impress against a swinging gate Seahawks defense last Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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09-17-23 | Giants -4 v. Cardinals | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Giants laid an egg at home against Dallas last Sunday night. That wasn't all that unexpected as the Cowboys have quite simply owned the G-Men in recent years. Here, New York draws a favorable bounce-back matchup in Arizona. The Cardinals kept things closer than expected on the road against Washington last Sunday, in what turned out to be an incredibly sloppy affair. Their offense looked lukewarm with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. I can't imagine Dobbs is long for the job but Arizona's options are limited with an inexperienced rookie in Clayton Tune behind him. This is a matchup where the Giants defensive front should feast against a leaky Cardinals offensive line. On the flip side, Arizona was ripped for just shy of 100 yards by Commanders running backs last Sunday and should get similarly exposed by Saquon Barkley here. I think it's important not to overreact to the Giants Week 1 result as I do still believe this is an upgraded offensive team in their second season the guidance of head coach Brian Daboll. Offseason acquisition Darren Waller wasn't much of a factor against the Cowboys but should rebound along with Giants QB Daniel Jones in this far more forgiving matchup on Sunday. Here, we'll note that New York is a long-term 13-3 ATS when coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, as is the case here. Take New York (8*). |
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09-17-23 | Raiders v. Bills OVER 47 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Raiders defense was never really tested in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Denver as the Broncos employed an extremely conservative gameplan. I expect a completely different story to unfold here as the Bills look to bounce back following Monday's ugly overtime loss against the Jets. New York made Buffalo's offense look completely average in that contest but make no mistake, this is still an elite Bills 'O'. The fact that the Raiders held the Broncos to only 16 points on less than 300 total yards simply didn't tell the whole story. Denver actually got most of what it wanted on offense in that contest but rarely pushed the football down the field. There's a path for the Raiders offense to make some headway against the Bills here. Buffalo's defense looked downright awful against the run on Monday night, allowing Jets RB Breece Hall to get loose for big gains on a number of occasions. Las Vegas' offensive gameplan will likely center around RB Josh Jacobs here. While the Raiders will be without WR Jakobi Meyers after he hauled in two touchdown catches last Sunday, that only means more looks for DaVante Adams who remains a gamebreaker despite getting up there in age. The Bills secondary held up fine on Monday against Zach Wilson and while this does figure to be another favorable matchup against Jimmy Garoppolo, I do think Adams can win his share of matchups. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners +132 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took the opener of this series by a 6-3 score last night. I look for the Mariners to answer back on Saturday. Future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw will take the ball for Los Angeles. He enters this start having allowed at least one home run in five straight outings and eight walks over his last two trips to the hill, spanning just 10 innings of work. The Mariners have never defeated Kershaw in four tries against him but it's worth noting that he hasn't faced Seattle since 2020. Rookie Bryce Miller will get the call for the Mariners. He got roughed up to the tune of five earned runs allowed over five innings against the Rays last time out. Miller's last two starts came on the road. Here at home he owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts with the Mariners winning eight of those. While the Dodgers bullpen figures to have an advantage over that of the Mariners however I do feel Seattle's relief corps is worthy of support, noting that it has converted 21 saves while blowing only six at home this season. Take Seattle (8*). |
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09-16-23 | Hawaii v. Oregon OVER 68.5 | 10-55 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Oregon at 8 pm et on Saturday. This matchup has all the makings of a shootout, even if it does turn out to be a lopsided affair. Hawaii got its feet under it in a 31-20 win over FCS squad Albany last week - its first victory in three tries this season. There's a lot to like about the Hawaii offense. QB Brayden Schager is purely a pocket-passer - a little different than we're used to seeing from the Rainbow Warriors in recent years. Despite being sacked a ridiculous 14 times through three games, he's still managed to throw for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns which says a lot about the explosiveness of this aerial attack. With WR Steven McBride emerging as a touchdown machine and Pofele Ashlock a big play waiting to happen, Oregon can't afford to sleepwalk through this game. On the flip side, we know what the Ducks are capable of offensively. They're just one game removed from an 81-point outburst, even if it did come against an FCS opponent in Portland State. Last week, Oregon pulled out a hard-fought overtime win at Texas Tech. Nothing came easy for it in that contest but I expect the Ducks to get loose again offensively here. Note that Hawaii lost the heart-and-soul of its defense, captain Logan Taylor to a season-ending knee injury last week. He's a tackling machine and his absence will be felt right away against Oregon. There was a 32-minute stretch in Oregon's season-opener in which it scored nine, yes nine touchdowns. The Ducks didn't have to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters in that rout but still tacked on two more touchdown's the game's final 12 minutes. That tells you all you need to know about this year's Oregon team. I believe this total will prove too low. Take the over (8*). |
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09-16-23 | Washington -16.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Michigan State at 5 pm et on Saturday. This will be a 'revenge game' for Michigan State after it dropped a 39-28 decision in Seattle last September. Instead of earning an ounce of revenge, however, I expect things to go even worse for the Spartans this time around. Washington is loaded on both sides of the football. The Huskies have already padded their stats with lopsided home wins over Boise State and Tulsa. This is arguably their first real test of the campaign although I use the term 'test' loosely. I think Washington will relish the opportunity to go to East Lansing and prove its worth here. Relatively green in the secondary, the Spartans will be hard-pressed to contain the Huskies dynamic WR duo of Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. The fact that do-it-all WR Ja'Lynn Polk is only the Huskies third best option is staggering. He's already racked up 182 receiving yards to go along with a score through the air and another on the ground. Michael Penix still isn't a household name in the college streets but it should be. Despite the lopsided nature of the first two games, Washington has kept its foot on the gas for four quarters in both contests and Penix has racked up 859 passing yards and a ridiculous eight touchdowns. And we haven't even talked about the Huskies defense yet. They arguably have NFL-caliber talent at all three levels. All indications are that elite pass-rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui sat out last Saturday's game as a precaution only and should be back on the field for this one. Even if he isn't able to go, the Huskies have tremendous depth. I'm confident we'll see Washington lock down what I feel is a lukewarm Michigan State offense on saturday and create plenty of 'chaos' plays. Michigan State is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS but who has it played? Central Michigan and FCS squad Richmond. The Spartans have played well but certainly not at the same level as the Huskies. Keep in mind, in their opener they didn't even reach the end zone until less than a minute was left in the first half against CMU. They do have some nice pieces in place on offense but will take some time to grow. QB Noah Kim is the starter for now but I think it's only a matter of time before highly-touted Katin Houser takes over. The backfield job likely belongs to UConn transfer Nathan Carter with Jalen Berger dealing with an injury and questionable to play. At wide receiver Michigan State has lost a ton of talent from last year's team. Remember, WR Keon Coleman went off for nine catches, 116 yards and two touchdowns in last year's matchup against Washington. He's now tearing it up for Florida State. Take Washington (10*). |
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09-16-23 | Virginia Tech v. Rutgers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Rutgers at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I expect both of these teams to employ a 'hide the quarterback' style of offense on Saturday afternoon in Piscataway. Virginia Tech QB Grant Wells was fine in a favorable Week 1 matchup against a rebuilding Old Dominion defense but he suffered considerable regression last Saturday against Purdue and was ultimately lifted from the game due to an ankle injury (he's questionable to play this week). Backup Kyron Drones entered and completed only 2-of-7 passes. Regardless who is under center against Rutgers on Saturday, this is an extremely difficult draw and one where I fully expect the Hokies to lean toward the run in an effort to effectively shorten this game. The good news for the Hokies is that their defense is fine. Last week against Purdue, Virginia Tech allowed two touchdowns in the game's first 18 minutes but then held the Boilermakers out of the end zone until nearly midway through the fourth quarter. This is a manageable matchup against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is off to a perfect 2-0 start, scoring 60 points in the process. With that said, QB Gavin Wimsatt has completed just 27-of-50 passes, throwing for 163 and 198 yards in the first two contests. A lot of that has had to do with game script with the Scarlet Knights controlling proceedings. Here, I do think we see a more competitive affair and like the Hokies, the Scarlet Knights have a vested interest in running the football with Kyle Monangai (he's coming off a 165-yard outburst against Temple) and leaning heavily on their tremendous defense. While Rutgers did score 36 points last week, after reaching the end zone with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter it didn't record another touchdown until over three minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple came unglued late, allowing two more touchdowns in the game's final six minutes. I do expect Virginia Tech to show a lot more poise and composure than the Owls. With that said, Rutgers has played eight quarters of football so far this season, pitching shutouts in six of those. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams got a much needed day off yesterday and I think we're set for an entertaining series in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. The Dodgers will look to bounce back after dropping two of three games at home against the Padres, scoring just one run in their most recent setback on Wednesday. I'm confident we'll see them bust out once again at the plate here as they go up against Mariners starter George Kirby. He's had a fine sophomore campaign by all accounts but has struggled down the stretch, perhaps showing signs of wearing down having logged a career-high 165 2/3 innings. Kirby has allowed at least three earned runs and worked beyond the sixth inning only once over his last five outings. Since striking out nine in a start against the White Sox on August 23rd, he's compiled just nine strikeouts in total over his last three outings covering a span of 13 innings. You would have to go back to August 12th to find the last time he didn't allow a home run in a start. Only three current Dodgers hitters have faced Kirby. Of note, J.D. Martinez is 3-for-6 with a home run off of the right-hander. Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller gave up five earned runs over seven frames against the light-hitting Nationals in his most recent outing. That makes it three out of his last four outings that he's allowed at least four earned runs. He did strike out a season high eight batters in that start but also allowed nine of the 30 batters he faced to reach base. The two bullpens are in fine shape after being idle yesterday but I'm willing to bet on the two offenses bouncing back and we're working with a reasonably low total given the fact that Dodgers road games have averaged a whopping 10.9 total runs this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-23 | Virginia v. Maryland -14.5 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. Don't be fooled by the lopsided final score - Maryland got a scare from Charlotte last Saturday. The Terrapins actually didn't score a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter in that contest. The good news is, their offense got rolling from there, ultimately producing four touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch from the third to fourth quarter. They even sniffed out an ATS cover (as 24.5-point favorites) before Charlotte produced a touchdown drive in the final two minutes. Nevertheless, there were positives for Maryland to take away. After allowing a touchdown just three minutes into the first quarter it held the 49ers out of the end zone until that final score with under two minutes left in the game. The Terps have allowed just two offensive touchdowns through their first two games. There's plenty to clean up offensively although the offensive line, which was thought to be the biggest concern entering the season, turned in a reasonably clean performance against Charlotte. QB Taulia Tagovailoa remains one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion although he tossed an uncharacteristic two interceptions last week. I'm willing to give the Terps a mulligan given it was easy to overlook a Charlotte squad they routed last season. Virginia is 0-2 and essentially in a rebuilding year. The Cavaliers did predictably play with a lot of juice last Saturday at home against a sneaky-good James Madison squad. QB Anthony Colandrea wasn't even in the conversation for the starting job earlier in the Spring/Summer but he has taken over the reins. I just wonder whether he's long for the job, undersized and playing behind a leaky offensive line with few offensive weapons around him (he was sacked four times and also threw an interception against JMU). There was a stretch where Virginia scored three touchdowns in six minutes from the second to third quarter on Saturday but it only reached the end zone one more time from there and was completely stymied when the game was hanging in the balance on three fourth quarter drives. Now the Cavaliers take a step up in class against Maryland. I'm simply not convinced Virginia has the personnel in place to hang with the Terps for four quarters. I'm confident we'll see the Terps defense in particular feast on Friday night. Take Maryland (8*). |
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09-15-23 | Army v. UTSA UNDER 45.5 | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and UTSA at 7 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair at the Alomodome on Friday. It's not often that both teams have a vested interest in eating clock and effectively shortening proceedings but I believe that will be the case here. For Army, it will be looking for revenge after a whild 41-38 loss against the Roadrunners in West Point last year. The Black Knights know the straightest path to victory in this game is by churning out long, clock-consuming drives that serve to keep the dangerous UTSA offense off the field. While they're certainly capable of doing that, they're up against a fierce Roadrunners defense that returns plenty of talent and experience and already appears to be in midseason form. I'm anticipating a rather conservative gameplan from Army in the role of considerable road underdog here. On the flip side, UTSA is hoping to have the services of do-it-all QB Frank Harris after he suffered a toe injury in last week's win over rival Texas State. Even if Harris can start this game, it's uncertain whether he'll be at 100% or how the injury will effect his performance. It does seem that something hasn't been quite right with Harris through the first two games this season and compounding matters is the fact that the Roadrunners offensive line has been struggling in pass protection. UTSA has the type of offense that can hold onto the football for long stretches with an effective ground game led by RB Kevorian Barnes. Note, however, that the big plays haven't necessarily been there so far this season. Last week against Texas State, UTSA's longest run was a 23-yard scamper from Barnes while its longest pass completion went for 30 yards - its only completion over 30 yards in the contest. Army does boast a capable defense that is built to prevent big plays thanks to a terrific second level with particular strength in the secondary. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a wild, high-scoring shootout but I expect nothing of the sort in this rematch. Take the under (8*). |
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09-14-23 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The projected shootout between these two teams last September ultimately fizzled as the Eagles built a big lead early and took the air out of the football in a scoreless second half. I do expect this rematch to be more competitive than that 24-7 beatdown in favor of Philadelphia. With the exception of WR Justin Jefferson and perhaps RB Alexander Mattison, the Vikings offense stunk in Sunday's stunning defeat at the hands of the Bucs. The good news here is that the Eagles lost LB Nakobe Dean to an injury on Sunday, further depleting an already downgraded defense following a number of offseason departures. I do think this is a game where Jefferson can go off while TE T.J. Hockenson is also in a blow-up spot. I like the revenge angle here for the Vikes, not only following last year's ugly showing in Philly but also off Sunday's embarrassing loss. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a ho-hum 25-point effort in New England last Sunday, scoring just a single offensive touchdown in the game. There's plenty for the Eagles offense to clean up here and I'm confident they will. In stark contrast to the Pats, who played it very safe on the defensive side of the football, the Vikes figure to continue to play aggressively on defense, trying to make up for a leaky back-end by putting heaps of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That worked alright against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs pop-gun offense. I'm not convinced it will work at all against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. This is a particularly strong bounce-back spot for Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert as Minnesota is likely to funnel its defense toward the dynamic WR duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Take the over (8*). |
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09-14-23 | Navy +15 v. Memphis | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Navy plus the points over Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Navy got off to an ugly start to the campaign in Week 0 as it was predictably routed by Notre Dame in Dublin. The Midshipmen got an early season bye after that and rebounded with a clean 24-0 victory over FCS squad Wagner last week. Here, they'll be bent on revenge after dropping blowout decisions against Memphis in each of the last two seasons. I believe Navy is better positioned to keep this matchup competitive even if its chances of staging the outright upset are slim. The Midshipmen have a bit of a different approach under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut. Gone are the days of this being strictly a triple-option attack. Even in last week's rout of Wagner, the Middies threw the football 18 times, and found moderate success doing so. QB Tai Lavatai is the right guy in place to run the offense. There's a good mix of talent and experience at the other skill positions as well. If there's a weakness on the Memphis defense it's in the middle and that's an area where I believe Navy can take advantage with a rather unpredictable offensive gameplan on Thursday. Back to Memphis in a moment but it's worth noting the Navy defense found its footing last Saturday after getting smashed in the mouth against Notre Dame. This is a better defense than most are probably going to give it credit for, solid from the secondary in with enough reliable pieces in place to limit the Tigers aerial attack and put pressure on QB Seth Henigan. Guys like Jacob Busic and Mbiti Williams are anything but household names but they're capable of wreaking havoc in this particular matchup. Memphis' offense has ripped through a pair of outmatched opponents to open the season. I do think there are still growing pains ahead for this offense with question marks on the offensive line and an unproven receiving corps. The experience of Henigan and the tremendous running back depth can help make up for that but I feel this one is more about the Tigers trying to effectively shorten this game and get to 3-0 unscathed. I also think the relatively low posted total speaks volumes here. Last year Memphis closed as a 4.5-point favorite against Navy and won in a walk by 24 points. Keep in mind, the Midshipmen turned the football over three times in that game and completed only 3-of-11 passes. I'm confident Navy can close the gap in this rematch, noting that Memphis is a long-term 10-24 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory, outscoring opponents by just 2.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Navy is a long-term 69-30 ATS as a road underdog, outscored by 7.1 points on average along the way. Take Navy (10*). |
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09-14-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -146 | 9-2 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Texas at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays will look to avoid the four-game series sweep against the Rangers on Thursday. I like their chances as they send Kevin Gausman to the hill against Nathan Eovaldi. Gausman bounced back from a rough stretch by tossing eight innings of two-hit, one-run ball, striking out 10 along the way against the Royals last time out. His career numbers against the Rangers are a mixed bag with a 3.21 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Gausman does catch a break with the Rangers missing Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung among others. Note that current (healthy) Rangers hitters have gone just 23-for-82 off of Gausman. Nathan Eovaldi has made two starts since returning from the I.L. He hasn't gotten all that stretched out, working just 1 1/3 and 2 1/3 innings in those two outings. Eovaldi hasn't seemed quite right, giving up eight hits while striking out only four and walking three in 3 2/3 innings since returning. Current Blue Jays hitters have gone 31-for-102 against Eovaldi with eight extra base hits. Both bullpens have struggled lately. The Blue Jays 'pen has been anything but overworked, however, logging just 21 2/3 innings over the last eight games. Meanwhile, Rangers relievers have worked just shy of 40 innings over that same stretch. Take Toronto (8*). |
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09-13-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros have continued to scuffle along in this series, dropping the first two games while scoring a grand total of just two runs. I'm confident we see them explode at the plate on Wednesday while starter Hunter Brown bounces back from an ugly outing in his last turn in the starting rotation. Paul Blackburn will take the ball for Oakland. He has pitched well enough for the A's this season and they've actually won seven of his last nine trips to the hill. With that being said, this is a nightmarish matchup for the right-hander. Current Astros hitters have absolutely worn him out going 29-for-101 at the dish including seven home runs (Yordan Alvarez has an eye-popping three home runs in 12 at-bats against him). Blackburn has recorded a less than impressive 18:9 strikeout-to-walk ration against Houston. Also of note, Blackburn will be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through three innings (six hits and three walks allowed) against the Rangers last time out. As I mentioned, Hunter Brown is in bounce-back mode after getting lit up for six earned runs over 4 1/3 innings against the Padres. He'll be happy to see the A's on Wednesday, noting that he owns a perfect 3-0 team record with a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 19 innings of work against them this season. Brent Rooker is one A's hitter than has gotten to him (3-for-6) but he hasn't had a multi-hit game since August 29th and was relegated to the bench last night. While the Astros bullpen remains in terrific shape having yet to eclipse the 500-inning mark on the season, it's a much different story for Oakland's relief corps. A's relievers have logged a whopping 608 1/3 innings (entering last night's action) this season, recording a 5.70 ERA and 1.62 WHIP away from home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Texas at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays here after they dropped the first two games of this series. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for Texas. He has posted solid overall numbers this season but things have certainly gone south lately as he has recorded an 8.59 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last three starts, covering a span of 14 2/3 innings. Current Blue Jays hitters have gotten to the left-hander to the tune of 30-for-100 at the plate. Of note, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have combined to reach him for 10 hits including three home runs in 29 at-bats. Yusei Kikuchi has quietly been one of Toronto's most reliable starting pitchers this season, entering Wednesday's outing sporting a 3.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He turned in an efficient five-inning outing against the Royals last time out, allowing just three hits and one earned run while striking out eight and walking one. While he's taking a step up in class against the Rangers here, I think he'll actually be happy to see Texas, noting he owns a perfect 4-0 team record with a 2.89 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings of work against them. Some will point to the fact that he hasn't faced them since 2021 but current Rangers hitters have gone a woeful 9-for-50 with just three extra-base hits off of Kikuchi. Neither bullpen has pitched particularly well lately but it's worth noting that the Rangers relief corps has combined to blow 14 saves while converting only 11 on the road this season (entering last night's action). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have made good on 49 save opportunities while blowing only 16 on the campaign. Take Toronto (8*). |
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09-12-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -151 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres took the opener of this series last night, putting up 10 runs in a wild, high-scoring affair. I expect the Dodgers to answer back on Tuesday. Michael Wacha will take the ball for San Diego. He mercifully hasn't faced the Dodgers since 2019 as he owns a lofty 5.51 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 10 previous outings against them. While Wacha has posted solid overall numbers this season he has labored through his last few starts, recording a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 15 1/3 innings of work. Lance Lynn gets the start for Los Angeles. Like Wacha, the veteran right-hander has also struggled lately. I'm willing to bet on him bouncing back on Tuesday as he should be happy to be facing the Padres, noting that he owns a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 10 career outings against them. In fact, Lynn has already faced San Diego once since joining the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline, holding them to one earned run over six innings in an 8-2 victory on August 6th. There's not a lot separating the two bullpens although it's worth noting that the Padres have more than twice as many blown saves on the road (17) as the Dodgers do at home (8). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-11-23 | Cubs v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Cubs are coming off a low-scoring series against the Diamondbacks - a series in which they salvaged Sunday's finale after dropping the first three games. I expect Chicago to have no such trouble at the plate on Monday as it departs the friendly confines of Wrigley Field to open a three-game set at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Jordan Wicks will get a fourth consecutive turn in the starting rotation for the Cubs. He's pitched well, allowing just four earned runs in 16 2/3 innings of work. With that said, he's not missing many bats, striking out only four over his last two outings after racking up nine strikeouts in his big league debut. Note that the light-hitting Giants actually reached him for nine hits in 6 2/3 innings in his most recent start. Also note that he'll be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). The Rockies should be in a foul mood as they return home off a series sweep at the hands of the Giants (and four straight losses overall). As bad as Colorado has been this season, it has averaged a solid 5.1 runs per game at home. Kyle Freeland will get the start for the Rockies. Current Cubs hitters have quite simply worn him out, going a combined 26-for-68 (.382) off of him with 11 extra-base hits including a pair of home runs. Freeland did pitch well last time out against Arizona but he's just one start removed from allowing six earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Braves and now faces a Cubs team that averages an impressive 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. The Cubs certainly have the better bullpen in this matchup, but note that they haven't had a day off since August 31st and have been involved in a string of nail-biters, meaning they're approaching 'overworked' territory once again. Colorado's 'pen has logged an ugly 6.14 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Jets are hoping the addition of Aaron Rodgers can spark their offense in this particular matchup, noting that they've been held to 20 points or less in all eight matchups between these two teams going back to the start of the 2019 season. While Rodgers is undoubtedly an upgrade over the rag-tag bunch New York relied upon at quarterback last season, I'm not convinced we're going to see the Jets offense set the world on fire right out of the gate. Buffalo struggled to defend the pass at times last season, ultimately giving up some boxscore-stuffing performances from a number of opposing wide receivers. I'm not sure the Jets actually upgraded their receiving corps all that much by adding the likes of Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb. Elijah Moore (now with the Browns) and Corey Davis (retired) were useful for New York at the position last season. Note that the Bills secondary will start the season intact - the first time we can say that since 2021 with Tre'Davious White, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer all suffering various injuries over the last couple of years. Add in the Bills vaunted pass rush and it's a tough opening week draw for Rodgers and co. The Bills offense has a tendency to grab headlines but this is also a difficult Week 1 matchup for that unit. New York's defense used a run-funnel style to limit Bills QB Josh Allen's production ceiling in last year's two matchups and the result was Buffalo scoring just 20 and 17 points in splitting those two games. The Bills did little to upgrade their offense in the offseason. They did use first round draft capital to select TE Dalton Kincaid but it's likely going to take some time for him to acclimate himself in the offense based on what we saw in the preseason. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last 'over' result. That came in a contest where the Bills exploded for 45 points against a much different Jets defense in 2021. The instalment of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed at cornerback last year turned out to be a home run and now New York enters this season supremely confident on that side of the football. Take the under (8*). |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 45 | 40-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and New York at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Giants had one of the lowest offensive ceilings of any team in the NFL last year. They didn't score more than 24 points in a game until January (New Year's Day against Indianapolis) before topping that number again in an upset win over Minnesota in the Wild Card Round. The offense doesn't get worse by adding rookie WR Jalin Hyatt and TE Darren Waller but this is an undeniably tough Week 1 matchup against a tremendous Cowboys defense that may have gotten even better with the acquisition of CB Stephon Gilmore. With that in mind, I anticipate a conservative offensive gameplan from New York here and it does have the pieces in place to play a field position, clock control type of game. Expect a heavy dose of RB Saquon Barkley both running and catching the football. Meanwhile, Darren Waller figures to be an ideal safety valve for QB Daniel Jones who is more than capable of extending plays with his mobility. I simply question how many drives the G-Men can end with 7's on the board rather than 3's. The Cowboys bring a familiar offense to the table personnel-wise but did move on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. I don't necessarily see that as a negative but I do think we'll see Dallas play a more methodical style with Mike McCarthy calling the plays. While the Cowboys have the receivers to expose a rather green Giants secondary, I'm not sure how much time Dak Prescott will have to operate behind an enigmatic Cowboys offensive line that once again starts the season with a couple of guys banged up in Tyler and Tyron Smith. Similar to the Giants offense, the running back could end up being the focal point for the Cowboys offense whether on the ground or through the air with Tony Pollard on Sunday. It's all music to the ears of 'under' bettors with plenty of clock-churning drives likely. Take the under (8*). |
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09-10-23 | Raiders +3.5 v. Broncos | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Bettors certainly seem high on the Broncos as they look to turn the page following a dreadful 2022 campaign. Nathaniel Hackett took the fall and now it's Sean Payton's turn to try his hand at turning around Denver's fortunes. While the Broncos can't be much worse than they were a year ago, I don't see this as the Week 1 slam dunk that most do. This will be a revenge game of sorts for Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo after his 49ers dropped an ugly 11-10 decision in a Sunday night game here in Denver early last season. I'm actually higher on Jimmy G. than some as he gets a fresh start following an up and down career with the Niners. The Raiders certainly aren't without weapons on offense with RB Josh Jacobs back in the fold and WR Davante Adams getting up there in age but still able to ball with the best of them. I think Las Vegas has sneaky-good depth at the wide receiver position with Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers in the mix as well. While the Broncos have a few studs on defense, they also have some weaknesses and not a great deal of depth. It's a similar story for the Raiders defense. They upgraded their pass rush by drafting Tyree Wilson in the first round to pair with the electric Maxx Crosby. Their secondary is vulnerable but can Broncos QB Russell Wilson take advantage? Injuries throughout training camp and the preseason mean Wilson won't have his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. While Sean Payton can scheme with the best of them and would certainly appear to have a considerable edge against Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels, I believe the Broncos are simply laying too many points in this Week 1 divisional matchup. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
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09-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -136 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. One more clutch hit would have probably done it for the Cubs yesterday but instead they dropped their third straight game at the hands of the Diamondbacks and will be looking to avoid a disastrous four-game sweep on Sunday afternoon. I like their chances of doing just that. After facing Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly over the last two days, the Cubs will take a step down in class against D'Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt on Sunday. Pfaadt has flashed at times during his rookie campaign but has generally struggled and enters in poor form having allowed 10 earned runs on 17 hits over his last three outings covering a span of just 13 innings. Veteran Kyle Hendricks will be tasked with helping the Cubs snap their skid. He gave up four earned runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Giants last time out but is just one start removed from tossing six innings of one-run, four-hit ball against the Brewers. Chicago has won three of his last four starts overall and he owns a terrific 3.15 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine daytime starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash except for the fact that Arizona has nearly twice as many blown saves this season (25 compared to 15). Take Chicago (8*). |
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09-10-23 | Jaguars v. Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
AFC Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last year's matchup between these two AFC South rivals in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium produced a whopping 61 total points and that was with noodle-armed veteran QB Matt Ryan running the offense for Indianapolis. The Colts were without RB Jonathan Taylor on that day and will be again here. Of course, Ryan is no longer under center for Indy - now it's up to rookie Anthony Richardson. His upside is enormous but there will be growing pains. While this is by no means an ideal Week 1 matchup, I do think Richardson can make enough happen to keep the Colts more competitive than most think. While a clock-control offensive gameplan might make sense for Indy, that will be tough to employ if (and more likely when) they fall behind by a considerable margin. Ryan threw the football 58 times in that aformentioned matchup here last year. Richardson won't approach that pass attempt total here but I still expect him to be forced to throw plenty (which could also potentially lead to turnovers and short fields for the Jaguars offense). Jacksonville is loaded offensively as QB Trevor Lawrence settles in for his third NFL season and second under the guidance of head coach Doug Pederson. The attack only gets stronger with the additions of WR Calvin Ridley and rookie RB Tank Bigsby. After lighting up the Colts defense in last year's two matchups there's reason to believe Lawrence can and will go off again here, keeping in mind the Colts defense arguably got worse in the offseason, certainly at the back-end. I do question, however, whether the Jags even know how to 'take the air out of the football' so to speak. While Jacksonville is understandably a popular road favorite this week, I would hesitate to lay points until it shows me it can manhandle an opponent the caliber of the Colts as it should. Expect Indy to do just enough to keep this one competitive and ultimately help the total along. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-23 | Auburn -6 v. California | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn minus the points over California at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams exploded offensively in blowout victories last Saturday. I believe Auburn is better positioned to keep it rolling this week, however. The Tigers rested a number of players in their opener against UMass (some were nursing minor injuries). While they did allow the Minutemen to move the football a little easier than you would have expected at times, they ultimately stiffened up when it mattered and went a stretch from seven minutes remaining in the first quarter until just over six minutes into the fourth quarter without allowing a single score. Auburn is loaded in the secondary where it boasts NFL-caliber talent led by Nehemiah Pritchett, who sat out last week's game but should return here. Offensively, the Tigers ran wild and ripped off a ton of big plays. That's not to say there's not room for improvement, however, as the quarterback duo of Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford completed just 12-of-23 passes. I expect a much sharper performance as the offense works out the kinks under offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery. Cal managed only two sacks against North Texas last week and will be up against an Auburn offensive line that has a number of new parts via the transfer portal but quickly came together, turning in a clean performance against UMass. The Bears defense is led by one of the better linebackers in the country in Jackson Sirmon but I suspect he'll be doing a lot of chasing on Saturday. Cal hopes to have dual-threat QB Sam Jackson (he transferred in from TCU) after he was forced to leave last week's game due to injury. While Ben Finley performed admirably in relief, there's no question this new-look offense is built around Jackson's mobility. RB Jaydn Ott turned in a monster performance against North Texas but it remains to be seen whether he can follow it up with a similar performance here. He had a couple of breakout games last year but didn't show a great deal of consistency. What he has been doing is giving Auburn bulletin board material in media availability this week; "It would be very encouraging when we do get this win. but I feel like our focus is going to be not letting it get to our head and getting too big-headed after we do get the dub." I believe Auburn is a Top-25 team and will boost its resume on Saturday night in Berkeley. Take Auburn (8*). |
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09-09-23 | Charlotte v. Maryland -24 | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Maryland certainly did itself a favor with its early season schedule this year, opening with three straight home games against Towson, Charlotte and Virginia. It already checked the first box with a 38-6 rout of Towson last week and I'm anticipating a similar result as it hosts Charlotte on Saturday. The Terrapins offense did have some question marks entering the campaign, namely on the offensive line and at wide receiver where it lost some key pieces to the NFL. With that said, it got off to a tremendous start thanks to a terrific performance from underrated QB Taulia Tagovailoa last week and I'm confident we'll see it show continued progression against a Charlotte defense that was absolutely awful last year and didn't do a whole lot to improve things heading into this season. The 49ers weren't really tested in their opener against South Carolina State. Note that they didn't reach the end zone until over five minutes into the second quarter and then went a stretch from four minutes remaining in the second quarter until over midway through the fourth quarter without scoring a touchdown. They'll look to effectively shorten this game with their ground attack and the new clock rules may help them in that regard. With that said, I don't think they can keep this one competitive without QB Jalon Jones being asked to do a whole lot more than he was last week. That likely only gets them into trouble against a Maryland defense that is loaded with potential breakout stars and picked up a game-changer in CB Ja'Quan Sheppard from Cincinnati. Take Maryland (8*). |
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09-09-23 | Marshall -3 v. East Carolina | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Marshall minus the points over East Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday. These two teams experienced different results from a pointspread perspective last week with Marshall barely eking out a 21-17 win over FCS squad Albany, at home no less, while East Carolina stayed inside the number in a 30-3 loss to Michigan at the Big House. It certainly took longer than expected to get going, but the Thundering Herd eventually scored a touchdown just over midway through the third quarter in last week's eventual narrow victory. It wasn't all doom-and-gloom though as Marshall ended up scoring three touchdowns over a 10-minute stretch in that contest. QB Cam Fancher looked pretty good to me, completing 28-of-35 passes for 268 yards while also gaining positive yardage on the ground. It was a tremendous comeback game for RB Rasheen Ali as he ran for 137 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. I expect that to be a sign of things to come for this Thundering Herd offense. This is a mouth-watering matchup for Marshall offensively as it catches East Carolina with a relatively inexperienced defense early in the season, before it is able to really mesh. While the Pirates did hold Michigan to 'only' 30 points in last week's loss, that was really a product of the Wolverines taking their foot off the gas after jumping ahead with three touchdowns over a 16-minute stretch in the first half. Michigan put up all 30 of its points in the game's first 36 minutes before calling off the dogs. On the flip side, the East Carolina offense is going to be a work-in-progress as it figures out life after long-time starting QB Holton Ahlers. The Pirates didn't manage a single score against the Wolverines until a field goal with five seconds remaining in the contest. Neither QB they used was able to take hold of the job. I also see it as a negative that QB Mason Garcia led the team in rushing with just 36 yards. Yes, this will be a far less challenging defensive opponent in Marshall but I'm not convinced we'll see the Pirates offense explode. Note that Marshall didn't allow a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter and no score of any kind in the game's final 18 minutes plus against Albany, which possesses a good offense by FCS standards based on early returns this year. The Thundering Herd lost a lot of talent from last year's elite defense but there are just enough key pieces back in place at all three levels, particularly in the secondary, to come together in short order. Take Marshall (10*). |
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09-09-23 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 36.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. While it's certainly not Army-Navy, we have seen a trend of low-scoring contests emerge in this rivalry series between Iowa and Iowa State. The 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings going back to 2018 with only one of those contests topping 35 total points. Last year, Iowa State pulled out a 10-7 victory in enemy territory and the road team has now won eight of the last 10 matchups. I expect a similarly low-scoring contest this year with both offenses in a state of transition early in the campaign. Iowa got the Cade McNamara era off to a red hot start last week, scoring two touchdowns in the game's first eight minutes against Utah State. From there, the Hawkeyes didn't reach the end zone again until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. On the flip side, the Iowa defense was a rock as usual, holding Utah State out of the end zone until the game was all but decided (ahead 24-7 at the time) in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. With QB Hunter Dekkers sidelined due to a gambling probe, it's up to the duo of J.J. Kohl and Rocco Becht to lead teh Cyclones offense. Last week against FCS opponent Northern Iowa it was Becht who got the start and led the team to a 30-point outburst. Led the team might be a bit of a stretch. Iowa State got the ball rolling with a pick-six less than two minutes into the contest and the offense went on to put together three touchdown drives, as it should against an FCS foe. Iowa State is hoping that Jayden Higgins can take over from Xavier Hutchinson as WR1 but he had just one catch for 15 yards against the Panthers. Lost in the 30-point performance was the fact that the Iowa State was terrific, holding UNI out of the end zone until nearly four minutes into the fourth quarter. The Cyclones essentially gave up just one big play in the entire game, that coming on a 36-yard pass completion on that lone Panthers touchdown drive. They racked up five sacks and two interceptions in the victory. Take the under (8*). |
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09-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks have closed the gap on the Cubs in the N.L. Wild Card race, winning three straight games including two in a row to open this series at Wrigley Field. I expect the Cubs to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they send Justin Steele to the hill against Merrill Kelly. Steele has been on the mound for an incredible nine straight Cubs victories. A 20-win campaign is well within his sights at this point and I look for him to take another step toward that goal on Saturday. Note that Steele has tossed 14 shutout innings over his last two starts, striking out 20 and walking only three along the way. Merrill Kelly is coming off a lights out performance of his own, allowing one earned run over seven innings against the Rockies. He's also just one start removed from giving up seven earned runs on 12 hits over five innings against the Dodgers. Current Cubs hitters haven't seen a whole lot of Kelly, with the exception of former division rival Cody Bellinger who has two home runs in 22 at-bats against him. The two bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup although the D'Backs have blown 15 saves on the road while the Cubs have just six blown saves at home. Take Chicago (8*). |
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09-08-23 | Illinois v. Kansas -3 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 79 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Illinois at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enter this Week 2 showdown sporting 1-0 records with Illinois pulling out a last second 30-28 win over Toledo and Kansas crushing Missouri State 48-17. We've seen this line shift slightly toward Illinois in the early part of the week. I can't help but think bettors are a little too high on Bret Bielema's Illini right now and probably not quite high enough on the Jayhawks. There is uncertainty around Kansas' quarterback situation. Jason Bean started last week's game but there's a chance Jalon Daniels will get the start on Friday. It's a nice situation to be in having two quarterbacks comfortable and capable of running the offense as intended. Speaking of that offense, the Jayhawks are loaded with talent and experience at all of the skill positions. I don't believe Kansas' receiving corps or backfield get nearly the attention they deserve - it's not all about the quarterbacks. While it was 'only' against an FCS opponent in Missouri State, there was a stretch where the Jayhawks scored three touchdowns in a six-minute span last Saturday. It took a little while for the offense to get rolling but once it did, it looked unstoppable - just as it did much of last season. Defense is where there remain question marks but I believe Kansas has just enough standout players at all three levels to find success and ultimately take a step forward this season. This is a manageable Week 2 matchup against an Illinois offense that has a number of big shoes to fill, even if the cupboard is far from empty. Illini QB Luke Altmyer showed what he's capable of in last week's come-from-behind win over Toledo, moving the chains with both his arm and his legs. I don't think his ceiling is nearly as high as that of Bean or Daniels for the Jayhawks, however. Of course, Altmyer likely won't be asked to do too much as we all know Bret Bielema-coached teams are run-first. That's an area where Kansas' defense really struggled last year but again, I do think it can take a leap forward this season with the transfer portal helping out, not to mention a number of key contributors gaining a year of experience. The Kansas defense gets stronger at the back-end, notably loaded in the secondary and that's an area of the field where I expect Illinois to run into some trouble, when it tries to stretch the defense. Corners Cobee Bryant and Kwinton Lassiter each picked off a pass in last week's victory. As much as the Illini would like to avoid a track meet, I do think they're going to be forced to play an uncomfortable game of 'catch-up' on Friday night, something they're simply not built for. Take Kansas (8*). |
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09-08-23 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Friday. I think we see a strong bounce-back performance from both offenses in this matchup on Friday after the Mariners secured a 1-0 victory last night. Seattle starter George Kirby has had a fine sophomore season but he appears to be hitting the wall late in the campaign. Note that he's worked a career-high 159 1/3 innings and things won't get any easier as he faces a tough opponent in the Rays on Friday and does so on short rest (four days) for a second straight turn in the rotation. Kirby checks in having allowed 13 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of just 18 1/3 innings. Behind Kirby is a Mariners bullpen that has been involved in a ton of nail-biters lately and entered last night's action with a collective 5.48 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven games. Tampa Bay will send Taj Bradley to the hill. The rookie owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in just shy of 80 innings of work this season. His command issues have been glaring over his last two starts as he's issued nine walks in just 8 1/3 innings. Averaging less than five innings per start this season, expect plenty of pressure to be on the Rays bullpen once again here, noting it is approaching 600 relief innings on the season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. UPDATE: Since the time of posting Chiefs TE Travis Kelce suffered a hyper-extended knee at practice and is questionable to play on Thursday. I’ll stay on the same play as his absence should lead to an even more competitive affair with Detroit perhaps playing even more aggressively rather than a game of ‘keep-away’. The total will undoubtedly drop should Kelce be officially ruled out. While there isn't going to be a bargain to be had with this Opening Night total, I do feel the Lions and Chiefs are well-positioned to blast 'over' the lofty number. Give Andy Reid a couple of months to prepare for a Week 1 opponent and he's going to come up with an ultra-efficient gameplan. It's no fluke that Kansas City has put up just shy of 38 points per game in Week 1 over the last five seasons. It should be able to approach that number again here as it draws a mouth-watering matchup against a Lions defense that did little to improve in the offseason following an up-and-down 2022 campaign. You may recall Detroit opened last season with a 38-35 loss to the Eagles. It draws a similarly difficult season-opener here with the Chiefs returning virtually all of the key parts to its offense with a number of young players poised for breakouts, particularly at the wide receiver position. While not loaded with household names, the Chiefs receiving corps is among the deepest and well-balanced in the league. And that's without even getting in to the reliable presence of Travis Kelce - the ageless wonder at tight end. Detroit is no slouch offensively either. The Lions took a big step forward last season, producing just shy of 27 points per game. Don't sleep on offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's ability to match wits with Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo here. Detroit has even more upside this season after using first round draft capital on RB Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions will undoubtedly need to get creative on offense in order to keep pace on Thursday, I don't think there's any reason for them to be intimidated against a Chiefs defense that didn't hold up particularly well against the pass last year and faces the un-admirable challenge of breaking through against a terrific Lions offensive line. To make matters worse for the Kansas City defense, DT Chris Jones is questionable to play on Thursday due to his contract holdout. We'll bank on him playing but should he sit out, the Lions offense is deserving of an upgrade. Take the over (8*). |
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09-07-23 | Tigers +150 v. Yankees | Top | 10-3 | Win | 150 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees are suddenly one of the hottest teams in baseball, winners of five games in a row and eight of their last nine contests overall. I look for the Tigers to bring an end to their run on Thursday, however. Eduardo Rodriguez will take the ball for Detroit. After a rocky outing against the red hot Astros bats on August 26th, Rodriguez rebounded to hold the White Sox to just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings last time out. That performance lowered his road ERA and WHIP to 3.03 and 1.11 respectively on the season. Rodriguez is of course very familiar with the Yankees from his day with the division rival Red Sox. He's held up well against the Bronx Bombers, logging a 3.63 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 22 career starts against them, with his teams winning 12 of those games. Carlos Rodon will counter for New York. It's been a tough return from injury for the left-hander as he has managed to work beyond the fifth inning in only three of nine starts since returning in early July. While the Yankees did manage to win his last start by a 6-2 score in Houston, Rodon was once again average at best, allowing three hits and two earned runs while striking out only four and walking one in five frames. New York has only won two of his nine starts this season. The last time it won a Rodon start, it dropped a 5-2 decision against the Rays at home in his next trip to the hill. The Yankees bullpen has been lights out lately but I don't mind the matchup here with the Tigers 'pen having posted a 4.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while converting 20 saves and blowing 11 on the road this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
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09-07-23 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners are favored in this game thanks to the starting pitching matchup. While I certainly respect Luis Castillo, he's tasked with a difficult challenge here as the Rays have produced 26 runs over their last five games and have been incredibly consistent when it comes to manufacturing offense this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game overall, 5.2 runs per game at home and 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching. Castillo will be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through five innings against the Mets last time out, allowing five earned runs on eight hits while striking out only two and walking two. Behind Castillo is a Mariners bullpen that is approaching overworked territory over the last week, involved in a number of nail-biters. Seattle relievers have logged a 5.48 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven games, converting just one save and blowing two. Zack Littell will counter for Tampa Bay. He's in the starting rotation out of necessity only having allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts. He has yet to work beyond the sixth inning in any of his 10 starts this season. The Mariners continue to see the ball well at the plate, averaging 4.9 runs per game over their last seven contests and 5.0 runs per game on the road this season. The Rays bullpen has posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last seven games but has also blown three saves over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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09-06-23 | Mariners -160 v. Reds | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners bullpen coughed it up in last night's 7-6 defeat. That hasn't been a common occurrence as Seattle's relief corps has been among the best in baseball this season, posting a 3.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 40 saves converted and only 16 blown (entering last night's action). The M's 'pen has also logged well south of 500 innings on the campaign, leaving it in excellent shape down the stretch. Contrast that with the Reds bullpen which has logged a 4.02 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 548 2/3 innings (also entering last night's contest). Enough about the bullpens though, let's talk about the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. Logan Gilbert will get the call for the Mariners. They dropped his last start in a heart-breaker against the Mets, losing 2-1 in Queens. Note that Seattle hasn't lost consecutive Gilbert starts since June 11th and 17th. Since then, they've gone 10-3 in his last 13 outings. Gilbert brings excellent form into this start having allowed just two earned runs in 13 2/3 innings over his last two outings, striking out 16 and walking only one along the way. Lyon Richardson will counter for Cincinnati. While he's enjoyed plenty of success at the minor league level this season, that hasn't translated to the majors. In three spot starts, Richardson has worked just 12 innings, recording a 7.76 FIP and 1.75 WHIP with 20-of-56 batters he's faced reaching base. The Mariners can certainly make you pay for putting runners on base as they are among the big league leaders in home runs with 184 on the season. They check in averaging just north of 5.0 runs per game on the road. Take Seattle (8*). |
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09-06-23 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pirates bats have gone cold as we've flipped the calendar page over to September and I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot as they wrap up a three-game set with the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon at PNC Park. Freddy Peralta will get the start for Milwaukee. He should be happy to be facing the Pirates noting that he owns a 2.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 10 career starts against them including two outings this year. Peralta brings excellent form into this start having allowed two earned runs or less in five straight trips to the hill. He's recorded double-digit strikeouts in five of his last 10 outings. Colin Selby will once again be tasked with 'opening' for the Pirates on Wednesday. He got roughed up in his most recent outing against the Cardinals as he was seeing them for a second straight day. Here, I'm confident we'll see him bounce back. While Selby's overall numbers aren't eye-popping, he has recorded 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings and draws a manageable matchup against a Brewers club that entered last night's action averaging just 4.0 runs per game on the road this season. We'll see plenty of the Pirates bullpen in this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing. They have one of the more underrated relief corps' in baseball and check in having posted a 1.91 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Here at home this season they've converted 22 saves while blowing only seven. The Brewers 'pen is in excellent form as well having recorded a collective 2.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests (also entering last night's affair). Take the under (8*). |
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09-05-23 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Monday's series-opener between these two teams found its way 'over' the total thanks to extra innings. I expect a lower-scoring affair on Tuesday as Toronto sends Chris Bassitt to the hill against Ken Waldichuk of the A's. Bassitt is of course familiar with pitching here in Oakland. He spent the majority of his big league career as a member of the A's before going on to greener pastures, so to speak. There is a bit of an art to starting games in this ballpark, where the lofty dimensions tend to be a pitcher's friend. Note that Bassitt comes off one of his best outings of the season as he tossed eight shutout innings against the Nationals last week. He's been at his best under the lights, logging a 2.96 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 18 nighttime starts this season. Ken Waldichuk was originally slated to start Monday's game but had his outing pushed back a day. As he approaches 100 innings of work this season, a little extra rest can certainly help the young left-hander. It's been a trying campaign for Waldichuk but we have seen him shown signs of figuring it out, at least here at home, in recent starts. His last two home outings came against a pair of tough opponents in the Rangers and Orioles. In those two starts he allowed just four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. While his command wasn't necessarily on point in his most recent start (five walks in four innings against Seattle) he did give up just one earned run (and one hit). Again, positive signs from a pitcher that's still figuring out how to succeed at the big league level. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Blue Jays last four games and that's notable as they haven't posted a longer 'over' streak since a five-game 'over' run in late April-early May (that was their longest such streak this season). Take the under (8*). |
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09-05-23 | Twins v. Guardians UNDER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
A.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams produced a whopping 26 runs in Monday's series-opener with the Twins doing much of the heavy-lifting in a 20-run outburst. Here, I expect nothing of the sort as Minnesota hands the ball to Sonny Gray against Tanner Bibee of the Guardians. We saw this same starting pitching matchup just last week with Cleveland prevailing by a 5-2 score. Noting that Gray has allowed one earned run or less in three of his last four starts and has worked at least six innings in an incredible 11 of his last 12 outings, I like his chances of keeping the Guardians bats at bay on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Cleveland entered this series averaging just 3.6 runs per game at Progressive Field this season. Bibee has impressed in his rookie campaign. He's been particularly tough at home where he has logged a 2.02 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 58 innings of work. While the Twins bats have been hot over the last few games, they entered last night's action averaging just 4.2 runs per game on the road this season. While things didn't go particularly well for either bullpen last night, both relief corps did enter this series in solid form with Twins relievers combining to post a 2.48 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last seven games while the Guardians 'pen checked in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the same stretch. It's worth noting that you would have to go back 18 meetings - to September of last year - to find the last time these two teams posted consecutive 'over' results in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Clemson at 8 pm et on Monday. There's a lot of hype around Dabo Swinney's Clemson Tigers entering the 2023 campaign - of course, what else is new. After a brief lull (by Clemson standards anyway) they're expected back in the National Title picture led by a loaded defense that has NFL-caliber talent at all three levels. I will say that a number of the players they're counting on to lead that defense will need to make a leap forward after perhaps not quite living up to potential thus far. The same goes for the offense. Duke will field arguably its best team in years - on both sides of the football. There's returning talent and experience everywhere and I believe the potential is there for the Blue Devils to build off of last year's strong finish that included a rout of UCF in the Military Bowl. Most are high on Duke QB Riley Leonard and while he's coming off a big 2022 campaign that saw him lead the Blue Devils in passing and rushing, I think there's still a lot of room for him to grow, especially as a passer, in 2023. The common line of thinking here is that Duke simply doesn't have the same level of talent across the board to match up with Clemson and that Dabo Swinney will coach circles around Mike Elko. The Tigers have certainly owned this series, taking five straight meetings going all the way back to 2005, outscoring the Blue Devils by 24 points or more in all five of those contests. It's been five years since their last matchup though and I'm confident Duke has narrowed the gap considerably. Take Duke (10*). |
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09-04-23 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 9 | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and San Diego at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring results on Sunday with the Phillies rallying for a 4-2 win in Milwaukee and the Padres blanking the Giants 4-0 here at home. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday as Philadelphia sends Taijuan Walker to the mound against Rich Hill. Both starters have been fortunate to limit the damage, relatively-speaking, over their last few starts respectively. Walker checks in with a 4.49 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the season. Yet the Phillies have gone an incredible 12-2 in his last 14 outings. Needless to say they've risen to the occasion at the plate with Walker on the hill and here we'll note that they average 5.1 runs per game when facing left-handed starting pitching this season, as will be the case against veteran Rich Hill on Monday. Since joining San Diego prior to the trade deadline, Hill has logged a 7.48 FIP and 1.61 WHIP. He's actually been fortunate to allow 'only' 17 earned runs over his last five starts as 31 of the 83 batters he faced over that stretch managed to reach base. The Padres bullpen has held up well recently but I question how long it can keep it up, noting San Diego hasn't had an off day since August 24th. Meanwhile, the Phillies relief corps has logged a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games, converting three saves but also blowing two over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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09-04-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton UNDER 50 | 41-28 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Hamilton at 3:30 pm et on Monday. The Tiger-Cats are coming off a 30-point explosion in a rout of the Lions last week but let's not get too carried away by that result. Hamilton didn't reach the end zone until just shy of a minute into the second quarter in that game. It didn't score another touchdown until less than six minutes remaining in the third quarter and then its final score came on an onside kick return for a touchdown with less than two minutes left in the game. Priot to that, the Ti-Cats had been held to 16 points or less in four straight games. Their scoring ceiling has proven low in this particular matchup as they've scored just 20, 8, 14 and 15 points in the last four meetings in the series. Also note that the 'under' is a long-term 150-116 with Hamilton in an underdog role, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Argos have put up 44 and 39 points in their last two games, racking up over 1,000 total yards over that stretch. That's notable as the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 the last eight times Toronto has averaged 500 total yards per contest over its last two games, resulting in an average total of just 40.6 points in that situation. It's worth mentioning that Toronto's last two games did come at home. The last time we saw it on the road it managed only seven points in a loss in Calgary. While I don't expect Hamilton to hold the Argos down to that extent here, Toronto has averaged 5.1 points per game lower than its season scoring average when playing on the road. Take the under (8*). |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State OVER 56 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between LSU and Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. We saw a relatively low-scoring matchup between these same two teams last Labor Day weekend as Florida State pulled out a 24-23 victory. Keep in mind, there was a 20-minute stretch in the third and fourth quarters where the two teams combined to score a whopping five touchdowns. The explosiveness is there with these two offenses. Of course, the defenses are loaded as well. I simply feel that the talent on defense can effectively work to fuel each team's offense in this particular matchup. We're likely to see plenty of 'chaos' plays that have the potential to flip the field (and lead to quick-score potential from the two offenses). Both teams boast ground attacks led by relative unknowns from a year ago but guys that essentially took over the reins down the stretch last season and should come out blasting here in Week 1. I'm referring to the duo of Josh Williams and Noah Cain for the Tigers and Trey Benson for the Seminoles. The receiving corps' both lose considerable talent but the cupboards are still well-stocked. Malik Nabers of LSU and Johnny Wilson of Florida State are two players that have the potential to go off in this matchup. That's not to mention the fact that both teams have tight ends that could potentially be playing on Sundays in the next couple of years. I expect both offenses to play fast in this one, not wanting to let the opposing defenses settle in and the experienced quarterbacks are certainly in place for that in Jayden Daniels and Jordan Travis. Take the over (8*). |
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09-03-23 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan UNDER 47.5 | Top | 30-32 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled a whopping 72 points. As a result we're working with a higher posted total this time around. Note that the 'over' hasn't cashed in consecutive meetings in this series since 2018. Both teams come in rested with Winnipeg last playing on August 24th and Saskatchewan fresh off its bye week (its last game was on August 20th). I do think that favors the defenses at this stage of the season. By all accounts, Winnipeg has had the league's best defense this year. While Saskatchewan has been wildly inconsistent in that department, it faces a Blue Bombers offense that is surely in for some regression after gaining just shy of 450 yards and scoring a whopping 47 points against Montreal last week. The Riders will give Jake Dolegala just his third career CFL start at quarterback. He performed well against B.C. last time out but I expect the Riders to scale back the playbook against a difficult defensive opponent here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-23 | Braves v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have taken the first three games of this series and while I do think the Dodgers can rise up and avoid the sweep on Sunday, I think they're in for a battle. Charlie Morton will get the call for the visiting Braves. The Dodgers are certainly familiar with the right-hander. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and David Peralta in particular have worn Morton out over the course of his career, combining to go 29-for-70 with 11 extra-base hits off of him. Morton has pitched exceptionally well over his last four starts but those came against the Mets (twice), Yankees and Rockies. He'll be taking a step up in class here. Behind Morton is a Braves bullpen that hasn't had a day off since August 24th and entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for the Dodgers. That sets this up as a 'revenge game' of sorts for the Braves after Miller held them to one earned run over five innings in an 8-1 victory in his first career big league start back in May. Miller has hit the rookie wall a little bit lately, allowing eight earned runs over his last two starts and topping out at five strikeouts in his last five outings. While the Los Angeles bullpen had held up well prior to last night's extra innings defeat, it hasn't had a day off since August 21st and is well north of the 525-inning mark on the season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-23 | Orioles -134 v. Diamondbacks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks took care of the Orioles by a 4-2 score last night to snap a three-game losing streak. I look for Baltimore to bounce back behind underrated starter Kyle Bradish on Saturday. Bradish has posted terrific numbers this season, logging a 3.45 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 133 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has given up just 13 hits in 18 innings, striking out 23 and walking only three along the way. Rookie Slade Cecconi has pitched reasonably well for the Diamondbacks when called upon. He owns a sub-1.00 WHIP on the season but has worked only 21 innings. I can't help but feel regression is coming for the right-hander, noting he had posted a lofty 6.38 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 100+ innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier this season. Despite closing out last night's game, the D'Backs bullpen still owns a less than impressive 6.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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09-02-23 | Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech -15.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Old Dominion at 8 pm et on Saturday. Opening night in Blacksburg is always special - you could argue any football night in Blacksburg is special - but this year's home opener takes on added importance after the Hokies were upset by Old Dominion in Week 1 last season. The Monarchs stole that game by a 20-17 score and I say 'stole' because their offense didn't even reach the end zone until the final minute of the fourth quarter. While Old Dominion won't roll over in this rematch, it is certainly going to be in tough to open the campaign after being ravaged by the transfer portal. Gone are two of the Monarchs key pieces from last year's upset win - QB Hayden Wolff and WR Ali Jennings (the Richmond native bolted to Virginia Tech). Defensively, Old Dominion retains the services of tackling-machine LB Jason Henderson but little else, particularly up front. Virginia Tech will once again pin its hopes on QB Grant Wells. It's essentially put up or shut up time for the veteran signal-caller as the Hokies have surrounded him with a ton of talent at the wide receiver position. Wells has always had the arm but has a tendency to turn the football over. The good news here is I expect Virginia Tech to jump ahead early and take the air out of the football the rest of the way. ODU was one of the worst time of possession teams in the entire country last year and won't get any better with so many key pieces gone. Take Virginia Tech (10*). |
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09-02-23 | Twins v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Twins easily disposed of the Rangers by a 5-1 score last night. Max Scherzer was still able to eat six innings for Texas in the loss and the Rangers didn't use any of their best relief arms. That's a positive as it's been 'feast-or-famine' for the Texas bullpen this season, which is why I'm more comfortable backing it at a more reasonable price on the run-line on Saturday. The Rangers have either been able to nail down games, or blow them completely, their really hasn't been much middle ground. But I digress. The real story here is that Dallas Keuchel earned himself another turn in the Twins starting rotation thanks to a terrific performance against the Pirates last time out (6 1/3 innings with no earned runs allowed). That start came at home, where he's been just fine in two outings this season. The road has been another story entirely. Going back to last season, Keuchel has allowed 6, 7, 7, 6, 6, 2 and 8 earned runs in seven road starts. He lasted beyond the fifth inning in only one of those outings. With the Rangers feasting on left-handed starting pitching, to the tune of 6.1 runs per game this season, they're in line for a breakout performance at the plate following a brief slump. Jordan Montgomery will get the start for the Rangers. He's been sharp since coming over in a trade with the Cardinals. He did labor through his most recent outing against these same Twins but still gave up just three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. I mentioned the inconsistent nature of the Rangers bullpen this season but it's not as if the Twins relief corps has been lights out either. They check in having closed out 15 saves while blowing 12 on the road this season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-02-23 | Washington State v. Colorado State OVER 55.5 | Top | 50-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I believe this rematch of last year's 38-7 Washington State rout has shootout potential. The Cougars are one of the more underrated teams in the country entering the 2023 campaign in my opinion. And it all starts with their offense, led by the talented trio of QB Cameron Ward, RB Nakia Watson and WR Lincoln Victor. The Rams didn't have any answers for the Cougars offense in last year's matchup as Washington State raced ahead 28-0 before halftime. A big part of that blowout result was the ineptness of the Colorado State offensive line. Almost in direct response to the brutal showing against Wazzu (the Rams gave up seven sacks in that game), Colorado State re-tooled its offensive line and now boasts an entirely different looking group. I don't expect a Jay Norvell-coached team to stay down for long offensively. The Rams do have some nice pieces in place on offense, including QB Clay Millen who took his lumps as a freshman last year but should be better for it in 2023. I like the way this matchup sets up for the Rams ground attack in particular as they've made improvements in that department as well and can take advantage of a smallish Cougars defensive interior. Noting that the Rams turned the football over twice, managed just 14 first downs and 37 rush yards on 31 attempts, it's incredible that they even managed to score a touchdown in last year's meeting. Expect them to at the very least come up with a response here, while the Cougars should be able to once again name their score against a very beatable Rams defense. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-23 | Utah State v. Iowa UNDER 44.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Iowa at 12 noon et on Saturday. We know what we're going to get with Iowa. In comes Michigan transfer Cade McNamara at quarterback but he's dealing with a leg injury and questionable to play on Saturday. Even if he does, I still expect to see a dialed-back Hawkeyes offense as they settle in to their preferred style of controlling the football (and the clock) in a matchup they should win going away against Utah State. The Aggies will turn to familiar face Cooper Legas under center. He had an up-and-down 2022 campaign, ultimately throwing just 11 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions. It seems that the more they let him cut it loose, the more mistakes he makes and in this difficult opening week matchup against what is expected to be an elite Iowa defense once again, I don't anticipate the Aggies putting too much on Legas' shoulders. Instead, we can anticipate Utah State running the football and doing all it can to win the battle of field position with a not-so-secret weapon at punter in super senior Stephen Kotsanlee. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Iowa's September home games over the last two seasons with those contests totalling an average of just 28.2 points. Take the under (8*). |
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09-01-23 | Orioles -109 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. While Orioles left-hander Cole Irvin has had a tough time staying healthy this season, when he's been right, he's been terrific. Irvin opened the campaign with a string of three consecutive poor outings. Since then, he's allowed one earned run or less in six of eight starts. Last time out, he made a few bad pitches on the way to allowing four earned runs against the Rockies but still hung in there for six innings in an eventual 5-4 victory. Baltimore checks in having won each of Irvin's last six trips to the hill. Here, he'll face a Diamondbacks team that is licking its wounds after a three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers (none of those games were close). They check in averaging just 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season and 4.5 runs per contest at Chase Field. In stark contrast, the Orioles have put up an average of 5.3 runs per game in posting a 41-24 road record. Zach Davies will get the start for Arizona. The D'Backs wasted a rare quality start from Davies last time out as he allowed just one earned run in five innings against the Reds but they dropped an 8-7 decision. Davies owns a disappointing 4.69 FIP and 1.60 WHIP this season. He's just one start removed from allowing nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings and has given up at least six earned runs in three of his last seven outings. Not helping the D'Backs cause is the fact that their bullpen has logged a 6.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the O's 'pen has posted a collective 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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09-01-23 | Miami-OH v. Miami-FL UNDER 46 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Miami at 7 pm et on Friday. This should be an intriguing battle between two talented and experienced defenses in Week 1. The Redhawks had one of the lowest offensive ceilings of all Bowl-eligible teams last season - of course that had a lot to do with losing QB Brett Gabbert early in the campaign. While Gabbert is back healthy to start the 2023 season, he doesn't have the same receiver room to work with. That's not to mention the fact the Redhawks offensive line remains a patchwork unit. Gabbert's decision-making will be the biggest factor here as the opposing Hurricanes defense figure to take advantage of any missteps. The other Miami's offense remains a work-in-progress as well. Last year we saw the Hurricanes explode for 70 points in their season-opener against Bethune Cookman but that wasn't a sign of things to come as the offense sputtered for much of the campaign. They'll start this season with a question mark as well with QB Tyler Van Dyke nursing a thumb injury. While he's likely to play, I don't expect this offense to operate all that fast or efficiently against an underrated Redhawks defense that boasts All-MAC caliber talent at all three levels. Take the under (8*). |
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08-31-23 | NC State v. Connecticut UNDER 47 | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Connecticut at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This total has dropped considerably since opening and it's the right move in my opinion. N.C. State is ushering in a new era offensively with QB Brennan Armstrong coming over from Virginia. Armstrong had a tremendous 2021 campaign before fizzling with the Cavaliers last year. The thinking here is that reuniting Armstrong with offensive coordinator Robert Anae will work wonders. Perhaps that will be the case, but I believe this is a sneaky-tough opening week matchup against a Connecticut defense that made positive strides last season and brings back plenty of talent from that unit. Keep in mind, the Huskies were throttled 41-10 in this matchup last year (in Raleigh). Wolfpack QB Devin Leary went off in that game, completing 32-of-44 passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns. That includes a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play from scrimmage that put the Huskies being the eight-ball early and ultimately took them away from their gameplan entirely. I don't believe UConn's plan of attack will change all that much this year, even with QB Joe Fagnano entering the fold after a productive career with Maine. Unfortunately for Fagnano, he doesn't have a loaded receiver room to work with. In the opener, he'll be facing a Wolfpack defense that recorded a whopping 19 interceptions last season and returns the outstanding 1-2 punch of Shyheim Battle and Aidan White in the secondary. With that said, the Huskies will want to lean heavily on their outstanding running back duo of Victor Rosa and Devontae Houston. While I do think UConn can make enough headway with its ground attack to keep the chains (and the clock) moving at times in this game, I'm not convinced we're going to see them break many big runs against a Wolfpack defense that despite losing a number of key parts, is still in excellent shape at linebacker and in the secondary. Note that in last year's meeting, the Huskies didn't score until the final play of the first half (field goal) and didn't reach the end zone until there were less than three minutes remaining in the game (and the final result was already decided with N.C. State leading 41-3). Take the under (8*). |
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08-30-23 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While I do expect the Royals slumping bats to wake up in Wednesday's series finale against the Pirates, I'm not convinced they can keep Pittsburgh at bay with a fading pitching staff. Last night, Kansas City got another outstanding start from Cole Ragans - one of the few bright spots in its starting rotation - but it wasn't enough as the Pirates plated six runs across the eighth and ninth innings in an eventual 6-3 victory. Angel Zerpa will be tasked with silencing the Buccos on Wednesday. He sports a 6.04 FIP and 1.56 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings pitched this season. The alarming thing is, he isn't even the biggest issue the Royals are facing. Their bullpen has been overworked and has posted an ugly 7.01 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games. On the season, Royals relievers have combined to convert only five saves while blowing 13 here at home. Andre Jackson will get another turn in the starting rotation for the Pirates. He's been better since coming over to Pittsburgh from the Dodgers but that's not saying much as he has still allowed five earned runs on nine hits while striking out 11 and walking five in eight innings of work across two starts. My bigger concern here is the Pirates bullpen. Note that Pittsburgh hasn't had a day off since August 17th and its 'pen has worked 34 innings over the last seven games alone, recording a 5.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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08-29-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Merrill Kelly will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. He turned in one of his best outings of the season last week as he tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball, striking out 12 against the Reds. Note that Kelly has worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. On the season, he's lowered his FIP to 3.92 and his WHIP to 1.13. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. His last start was cut short by rain in Cleveland. You would have to go back 10 starts to find the last time he allowed more than two earned runs. The veteran left-hander owns a terrific 3.76 FIP and 1.02 WHIP on the campaign. While the D'Backs bullpen has struggled, I do think Kelly can eat enough innings that they're not a major factor in this one. Meanwhile, the Dodgers 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-23 | Reds +145 v. Giants | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants cruised to a 4-1 victory to open this series last night, notching their second straight victory. I'm confident we'll see the Reds bounce back on Tuesday as they give Brandon Williamson the start against Alex Cobb. Williamson is coming off a terrific outing in Arizona as he tossed six shutout innings in an eventual 3-2 loss. In fact, the Reds have lost each of his last three starts - their longest such streak of the season - despite Williamson logging a 2.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over that stretch. We know what we're going to get from Giants starter Alex Cobb. He owns a 3.96 FIP and 1.38 WHIP on the season and far worse, a 7.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts. The Giants bullpen didn't have to do much heavy lifting last night and that's probably a good thing as they entered that contest sporting a collective 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with two saves converted and three blown over their last seven games. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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08-29-23 | Yankees v. Tigers -118 | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over New York at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees took the opener of this series last night but are still going nowhere as they wallow beneath the .500 mark on the season. Here, I look for the Tigers to bounce back as they hand the ball to underrated left-hander Tarik Skubal against Michael King. Skubal has logged a 1.92 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 44 1/3 innings of work this season after posting an impressive 2.96 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 117 1/23 frames last year. The Michael King starting experience hasn't worked out for the Yankees as they've dropped his two prevous starts this season and seven of his last eight starts overall going back to 2020. Neither bullpen has pitched particularly well lately. As is often the case, the Yankees bullpen is being priced in as an advantage but I don't believe the gap is as wide as most believe (note the Tigers have converted 32 saves while blowing only 18 this season). Take Detroit (8*). |
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08-28-23 | Reds +105 v. Giants | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on Cincinnati over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Reds managed to secure just one win in a four-game series in Arizona but I look for them to bounce back as they head to San Francisco on Monday. Andrew Abbott will take the ball for Cincinnati. He's enjoyed a fine rookie campaign having logged a 4.01 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 85 1/3 innings of work. While walks have been an issue at times, he's made up for it by striking out just shy of 10 batters per nine innings and also giving up just north of seven hits per nine innings. Note that Abbott has yet to hit a batter or throw a wild pitch this season. His counterpart on Monday will be fellow rookie Kyle Harrison, who will be making his second big league start. Harrison's first outing went ok but he certainly wasn't dominant, recording a 5.97 FIP and 1.80 WHIP in 3 1/3 innings (small sample size, I know). At the minor league level this season (Rookie League and Triple-A) he has worked 67 2/3 innings, posting a 4.52 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The Giants threw some key relievers at the Braves last night as they were desperately trying to hold on to avoid a series sweep (they succeeded). Note that San Francisco relievers have now logged just shy of 580 innings on the season and well north of 30 innings over the last seven games. Entering last night's contest they had recorded a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Reds bullpen has been taxed lately as well, it did enter Sunday's action sporting a 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Reds relievers have converted 27 saves while blowing only 10 on the road. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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08-27-23 | Texans v. Saints OVER 37 | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New Orleans at 8 pm et on Sunday. I think the common line of thinking for most bettors ahead of this matchup is that the two teams will go completely 'vanilla' in terms of their offensive gameplanning with a Week 6 regular season matchup on the horizon. I'm not so easily convinced. Join practices between the two teams were cancelled earlier this week. As a result, I do think both teams end up opening it up a little bit offensively here. Keep in mind, neither defense wants to show its hand in terms of particular schemes either. The Saints defense has allowed 41 points through its first two games while the Texans allowed 28 points against a Dolphins team working out the kinks on their offensive line last week. Off a three-point showing in that loss to Miami, you can be sure Houston will be eager to come away with something positive offensively here. Rookie C.J. Stroud is expected to play a couple of series along with the rest of the starters before giving way to Davis Mills. On the flip side, we'll see plenty of Jameis Winston and Jake Haener for the Saints. Both have been effective in pushing the football down the field through the first two preseason affairs. Take the over (8*). |
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08-27-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cubs took the third game of this series by a 10-6 score last night. I look for a similarly high-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. Javier Assad will take the ball for Chicago. He has been anything but dominant this season, logging a 4.67 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, which is about on par for his career numbers, yet the Cubs have managed to win each of his last four starts. Note that while only four current Pirates hitters have faced Assad before, they've gone a combined 3-for-6 with both Connor Joe and Jack Suwinski homering off of the right-hander. Bailey Falter will counter for Pittsburgh. He's been quietly effective since returning to the starting rotation earlier this month with the Pirates winning two of his three starts. With that being said, he still owns a 5.03 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season and will be up against a Cubs team that averages 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. Current Cubs hitters are a combined 9-for-21 against Falter with four extra base hits and only four strikeouts. Neither bullpen has been all that effective lately with the Pirates in particular being overworked, logging a collective 38 2/3 innings over the last seven games. Also note that neither team has had a day off since August 17th, putting even more pressure on the bullpens at this late stage of the season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt UNDER 56.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This matchup was no contest last year as Vanderbilt exploded in the third quarter on its way to a 63-10 rout in Hawaii. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair this year. Given the Rainbow Warriors are guided by head coach and former standout quarterback Timmy Chang, the expectation would be that the Hawaii offense will be high-octane. I simply feel there are too many question marks on that side of the football, including at quarterback and wide receiver to heap on high expectations out of the gate. This is a sneaky-tough matchup against an SEC defense on the rise and I think the Rainbow Warriors main goal will be to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately keep their defense off the field as much as possible. Speaking of that defense, it was awful last season. I expect this to be a bounce-back year in that department, however, as Hawaii bolstered its secondary by bringing over cornerback Cam Stone from Wyoming and safety Peter Manuma is a budding star after making a splash in his freshman year. The needle is certainly pointing up for Vanderbilt after making positive strides and coming up with a couple of particularly big wins in SEC play last season. While there's talk the experienced but ineffective Ken Seals could still see some action, this is undoubtedly quarterback A.J. Swann's offense. With last year's top running back Ray Davis bolting to Kentucky, the Commodores ground game could be a work-in-progress in the early going. I do think they lean more on Swann's arm (he's not much of a runner) in this particular matchup and then worry about pounding away after building a substantial lead. Again, that's where the Rainbow Warriors improved secondary needs to come in. Defense is where Vandy needs to have the biggest improvement and I believe it will. Vandy brought in Aeneas DiCosmo from Stanford and Prince Kollie from Notre Dame to bolster the pass rush that simply didn't create enough splash plays last season. Losing last year's top tackle Anfernee Orji certainly isn't ideal but I do think there are enough good pieces in place to make this Commodores defense anything but a swinging gate this season. Take the under (10*). |
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08-26-23 | Rangers -115 v. Twins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring games to open this series with the Twins bats having their way with Rangers pitching. I do think that changes on Saturday as Texas hands the ball to Max Scherzer against Joe Ryan of the Twins. Scherzer is coming off a rough outing against the Brewers as he was chased in the fourth inning after giving up three earned runs in an eventual 6-2 loss. The ultimate competitor, I'm confident we'll see Mad Max bounce back here, noting he still owns a sparkling 2.55 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in four starts since joining the Rangers. Scherzer should be able to use his full arsenal against a Twins lineup that has had limited experience against him. Current Twins hitters are a combined 7-for-26 (.269) against Scherzer with only one extra-base hit (a home run from Kyle Farmer). Joe Ryan makes his return from a stint on the injured list for the Twins. To say he's owned Rangers hitters would be an understatement as they've gone just 2-for-31 (.065) with one extra-base hit (a home run from Marcus Siemian) off of him. Ryan struck out seven and gave up just one earned run over four innings in his minor league rehab start at Triple-A St. Paul. With all of that said, Ryan seemed to have a case of the 'yips' when we last saw him at the big league level as he was tagged for a whopping 17 home runs over his last seven starts, covering a span of just 32 innings. The Rangers bats have been rather dormant lately but certainly have the potential to break out at any time. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately. I do like backing teams coming off blowout results, however, as it generally leads to their key arms being rested, as is the case with the Rangers here. Mired in a long losing streak, they should be confident taking the field behind Scherzer on Saturday and I look for them to bust out of their slump. Take Texas (8*). |
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08-26-23 | Hamilton v. BC UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. Something has to give from a totals perspective in this game as the Tiger-Cats enter riding a four-game 'under' streak while the Lions have seen each of their last three contests go 'over' the total. The last time we saw these two teams meet last season they combined to score just 29 points and I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday. For B.C. this is a big bounce-back spot at home off an ugly defensive effort in Saskatchewan last week. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 17-6 with the Lions playing at home off an upset loss against a divisional opponent, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 159-112 with the Lions installed as a favorite. The Ti-Cats have found their running game over the last couple of weeks, racking up north of 200 yards on the ground on just 32 attempts. Their gameplan here should involved churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to keep the Lions potent offense off the field as much as possible. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 149-116 with Hamilton checking in as an underdog. Take the under (10*). |
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08-26-23 | Cardinals v. Vikings OVER 38 | 18-17 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Saturday. Neither of these teams has impressed in the first two weeks of preseason action. For the Cardinals, it's undoubtedly going to be a long season. On a positive note, they have gotten rookie quarterback Clayton Tune plenty of run over the course of the first two games and he'll likely get a lot of work in again in Minnesota on Saturday. I've been impressed by his fearlessness in the pocket and confidence pushing the football down the field. After getting sacked three times in the opener against Denver we saw the Cardinals offensive line perform much better in last week's loss against Kansas City (no sacks allowed). You can be sure Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell would like to see a little more cohesiveness out of his offense on Saturday after the team put up just 13 and 16 points in their first two games. No, preseason results don't really matter, but you at least want to come away with something positive in August before ramping up in September. With 34 and 30 pass attempts in the first two preseason affairs, we've at least seen the Vikings show an interest in pushing their receivers a little bit. Minnesota did make some progress in the first half in last week's loss to Tennessee, marching down the field for three second quarter scoring drives but unfortunately all three of those were field goals. If they can clean things up a little here, I'm confident they can do some damage against a depth-shy Cardinals defense. Take the over (8*). |
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08-25-23 | Lions +5 v. Panthers | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Carolina at 8 pm et on Friday. The Lions were manhandled 25-7 at home against the Jaguars last week, spoiling the gains from the previous week when they rallied for a victory over the Giants. I look for Dan Campbell's squad to bounce back in Friday's preseason finale as they head to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina is expected to give its starters a run in this game and that includes rookie quarterback Bryce Young. His results have been mixed in the early going. Carolina has yet to secure a win this preseason after getting shut out by the Jets in Week 1 and rallying but falling short in a 21-19 loss to the Giants last week. There's just nothing in this matchup that leads me to believe the Panthers are deserving of laying more than a field goal. While we've seen positive flashes from Carolina's second and third-string quarterbacks in Matt Corral and Jake Luton, we've also seen plenty of mistakes. After such a poor showing last week, I expect the Lions defense to take a step forward here, certainly as they look to rise to the occasion against the highly-touted rookie QB Young in the early going. Take Detroit (10*). |
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08-25-23 | Dodgers -115 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox salvaged a four-game series split in Houston thanks to a blowout victory yesterday. I'm not convinced they'll be able to notch a third straight win on Friday, however, as they welcome the Dodgers to Fenway Park. Los Angeles picked up a pair of victories in Cleveland yesterday. The Dodgers are in cruise control as they run away with the N.L. West Division title but that doesn't mean they've taken their foot off the gas as they continue to play winning baseball. Veteran Lance Lynn will get the call for Los Angeles on Friday. It's amazing what moving to a contending team can do for a pitcher as we've seen Lynn give up just four earned runs in four starts, spanning 25 innings of work since joining the Dodgers. His opponent on Friday will be Kutter Crawford. While he has had a fine season, he hasn't proven to be a good fit pitching here at Fenway Park, where he owns an inflated 8.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts. Behind Crawford is a Red Sox bullpen that has been severely overworked, logging 517 2/3 innings this season (entering yesterday's action) and having not had a day off since August 14th. The Dodgers 'pen entered Thursday's action sporting a collective 2.39 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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08-25-23 | Cubs v. Pirates +105 | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Cubs are admittedly playing well right now, winners of five of their last six games including an extra innings victory to open this series last night. I like the Pirates chances of getting back at Chicago on Friday, however, as they send Mitch Keller to the hill against Kyle Hendricks. Keller had a rough stretch in July and early August but has since turned it around again, allowing only three earned runs while striking out 19 and walking just four in 12 innings of work over his last two starts. He owns a 3.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. Behind him is a Pirates bullpen that continues to pitch well, particularly here at home where it has converted 20 saves while blowing only seven this season. Kyle Hendricks was masterful over 6 1/3 innings last time out but that was against the Royals. Note that he has posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in nine nighttime starts this year. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds are three current Pirates hitters that have homered off of Hendricks at least once. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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08-24-23 | Colts v. Eagles OVER 38 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Thursday. These two teams made headlines earlier this week as they were engaged in a brawl at the end of their joint practice. Cooler heads obviously prevailed and now we'll see a matchup between the two teams at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday. Indianapolis is expected to give some of its starters a run in this game according to head coach Shane Steichen. That includes rookie QB Anthony Richardson, who sat last week's contest against Chicago after an inconsistent showing in the opener against Buffalo. While one might assume the Eagles defense would have its way with Richardson and the Colts offense, which is not expected to be one of the league's better offenses this year, we're unlikely to see all of Philadelphia's regular starters on that side of the football, nor will we see much other than a vanilla defensive scheme here. Note that the Eagles have recorded only two sacks through their first two preseason contests. The Colts do boast one of the stronger preseason QB rotations with veteran Gardner Minshew and Sam Ehlinger likely to get snaps on Thursday as well. Speaking of QB's, the Eagles have a good one (by preseason standards) in Tanner McKee. He has impressed through two games, showing a willingness to push the football down the field and a good rapport with this receiving corps. Projected QB2 Marcus Mariota has something to prove after a poor showing in the first half against the Browns last week. Mariota was much sharper in the Eagles preseason opener in Baltimore, leading them on two drives into Baltimore territory that resulted in one made field goal and one missed. On the flip side, the Colts have allowed at least one score in seven of eight preseason quarters to date. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-23 | Rangers +113 v. Twins | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers limp into Minnesota on the heels of six straight losses while the Twins are licking their wounds following a two-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers in Milwaukee. Here, I like Texas to bounce back as it sends Andrew Heaney to the mound against Pablo Lopez. Heaney put together consecutive solid outings to start the month before struggling in his last two starts. He'll be happy to be facing the Twins, noting he owns a perfect 4-0 team record in four career starts against them, logging a 2.38 ERA and 0.79 WHIP along the way. Current Twins hitters are a combined 20-for-84 (.238) against the veteran left-hander with no home runs and only seven extra-base hits (all doubles). Pablo Lopez has been terrific for the Twins lately. In fact, he's allowed just one earned run over his last four starts, covering a span of 25 innings of work. No Rangers batter has seen Lopez more than four times but Adolis Garcia is 2-for-3 with a home run off of him. My bigger concern for the Twins here is their bullpen. They got stretched thin in Milwaukee thanks to yesterday's extra innings affair. Note that their relief corps entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 5.87 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games and didn't do anything to help their cause in that extra innings defeat. Meanwhile, the Rangers were idle on Wednesday. Take Texas (8*). |
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08-23-23 | Royals -120 v. A's | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have taken the first two games of this series but I'm confident we'll see the Royals answer back on Wednesday afternoon. Cole Ragans has quietly pitched well for Kansas City with the Royals splitting his four starts since being inserted into the rotation earlier this month. On the season, Ragans owns an impressive 2.26 FIP in 28 2/3 innings of work. While he has struggled in two previous outings against Oakland (both last season), current A's hitters haven't done much damage against him going a combined 3-for-20 at the dish. Adrian Martinez will get a spot start for Oakland - his first of the season. He was awful last year, posting a 5.35 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in 12 starts. In 32 1/3 relief innings this season, Martinez has logged a 4.44 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. Neither bullpen has been all that sharp lately but I do have more faith in the Royals relief corps, which has combined to convert 13 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. Contrast that with the A's 'pen, which has blown 12 saves compared to just 11 converted at home. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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08-22-23 | Nationals +165 v. Yankees | 2-1 | Win | 165 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is quickly becoming a lost season for the Yankees as they've lost nine games in a row to fall out of contention in the American League and last place in the A.L. East. While a home series with the Nationals would usually provide some relief, the fact is Washington is playing much better baseball lately and is certainly no 'easy out'. The Nats have won seven of their last nine games overall and will hand the ball to Josiah Gray on Tuesday. Remember, Gray was selected to the National League All-Star team earlier this season. While he hasn't exactly posted All-Star caliber numbers lately, I do think he's capable of rising to the occasion following a string of rocky outings. In 14 road starts this season, the right-hander has logged a terrific 2.82 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. That's world's better than what we've seen from Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon. Since returning from a long stint on the injured list, Rodon has posted a 7.38 FIP and 1.52 WHIP in six starts. New York has managed to win just one of his six outings to date. While the Yankees bullpen has certainly been superior to that of the Nationals this season, we're still talking about an overworked relief corps that is approaching 480 innings pitched on the campaign. Lately, the Yanks 'pen has been anything but invincible, recording a collective 3.98 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Washington (8*). |
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08-22-23 | Cubs v. Tigers +110 | 6-8 | Win | 110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Chicago at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs have been giving Drew Smyly minimal turns in the rotation lately, and for good reason. The veteran left-hander hasn't had a productive start since mid-June, allowing 31 earned runs over his last six outings, covering a span of just 27 innings of work. Over that stretch, the Cubs won just one of Smyly's starts and that was in a game where they produced 16 runs against the Reds. Rookie Reese Olson has had an up-and-down start to his big league career. He allowed four earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Twins last time out. Note that was his second straight start against Minnesota and in his previous one he tossed six shutout innings. After dropping Olson's first two starts, the Tigers have now gone 5-4 over his last nine trips to the hill. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately and are virtually a wash on the season. Take Detroit (8*). |
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08-21-23 | Royals v. A's OVER 8 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams struggled at the plate over the weekend and that wasn't unexpected as the Royals faced the Cubs and the A's went against the Orioles, two teams that boast playoff-caliber pitching staffs. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday. The Royals will give the start to Tucker Davidson. He has appeared in six games this season, working just 6 1/3 innings. In that limited action, Davidson allowed 11-of-28 batters he faced to reach base, logging a 4.85 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. For his career, Davidson has posted a 4.97 FIP and 1.64 WHIP. The Royals bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 1.61 WHIP over the last seven games, logging north of 30 innings over that stretch. A's starter Paul Blackburn has posted a 3.50 FIP and 1.50 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work this season. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a second straight turn in the rotation. Behind Blackburn is an A's bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.96 ERA and 2.06 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering yesterday's action). Keep in mind, these two teams met for a three-game series in Kansas City earlier this year and combined to score 35 runs. Take the over (8*). |
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08-21-23 | Ravens -1 v. Commanders | 28-29 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Washington at 8 pm et on Monday. The Commanders are coming off a 17-15 win over the Browns last week and that's worth noting as they haven't won consecutive preseason contests since way back in 2017. The Ravens run of preseason success over the last eight years has been well-documented. I expect their run to last at least one more game, despite what the line movement seems to be indicating here. That line movement has a lot to do with an injury to Ravens backup QB Tyler Huntley. He tweaked his hamstring in last week's game and isn't expected to play on Monday. That still leaves a couple of experienced preseason quarterbacks in Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown to run the Ravens offense. The Commanders named Sam Howell their Week 1 starter at QB last week and while he is likely to play in this game, I'm not sure we'll see a lot of him, noting that the starters got plenty of run during joint practices between these two teams over the course of the week. Backup Jacoby Brissett is locked-in to the QB2 spot while Jake Fromm will likely get mop-up duty once again on Monday. There's a lot to like when it comes to the Ravens preseason approach. Their lone preseason winning streak is no fluke and you can be sure this year's edition doesn't want to be the one to spoil the exceptional run. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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08-20-23 | Saints -3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While this will technically be the Chargers first home game of the preseason, they did play here last week as they delivered a 34-17 win over the Rams. That win had more to do with the Rams lacking depth than anything else (they were also trounced by the Raiders last night). New Orleans is coming off a wild 26-24 victory over Kansas City. I like the Saints quarterback rotation with Jameis Winston and rookie Jake Haener once again expected to handle the bulk of the snaps on Sunday. Haener had a shaky first couple of possessions but did end up settling in and orchestrating a 76-yard touchdown drive later on. The Chargers starters are unlikely see much (if any) playing time on Sunday after these two teams took part in joint practices this week. They didn't show much interest in turning rookie QB Max Duggan loose in the second half last Sunday as he attempted only three passes (that was largely game-script related but still worth noting). I don't anticipate Brandon Staley opening up the Chargers playbook too wide in this contest either as his number one goal this preseason seems to be figuring out who will win the backup running back job. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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08-20-23 | BC v. Saskatchewan UNDER 45 | 29-34 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between B.C. and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Sunday. The Roughriders have been installed as big underdogs in this game as they turn to third-string quarterback Jake Dolegala after losing both Trevor Harris and Mason Fine to injuries. Dolegala did enter last week's game after Fine went down and predictably struggled. While the Riders are saying all the right things after Dolegala put in a full week of practice with the ones, it remains to be seen whether he can be successful on the field on Sunday. I expect the Riders to dial back the playbook a little bit as they know just how good the Lions defense is having faced it already once this season. I do think the Riders defense is better than it showed in last week's thumping at the hands of Montreal. Note that the Saskatchewan offense simply didn't take care of the football in that game, ultimately putting its defense in a number of tough spots. A more conservative offensive gameplan should help in that regard on Sunday. The Lions hung 37 points on the Stampeders in last week's victory. Note, however, that B.C. hasn't scored more than 24 points in consecutive games all season. Take the under (8*). |
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08-20-23 | Mets v. Cardinals -141 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over New York at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Mets have had their way with the Cardinals so far in this series but I look for St. Louis to answer back in Sunday's series-finale. Carlos Carrasco will take the ball for New York. He's having a disastrous campaign having posted a 5.83 FIP and 1.63 WHIP in 18 starts. Note that he's faced the Cardinals twice since the start of last season, allowing a whopping 12 earned runs in just 6 2/3 innings of work with the Mets dropping both of those contests. Dakota Hudson will get the start for the Cards. He's guided St. Louis to wins in all three of his starts this season and six in a row going back to last year. Note that he's worked at least into the seventh inning in two of his three trips to the hill this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash on the season although the Mets relief corps has admittedly performed better lately (only marginally). Given how lopsided this series has been, the majority of the Cards key bullpen arms remain rested. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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08-20-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees -108 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Yankees are sliding right now, fresh off another lopsided defeat at the hands of the rival Red Sox yesterday. I do look for them to salvage the finale of this series on Sunday, however. Josh Winckowski will get a spot start for Boston. He allowed a whopping 10.9 hits per nine innings during his rookie year last season (in 70 1/3 innings pitched) and is on track to post a similar number this year (10.2 hits allowed per nine innings in 64 2/3 innings pitched). Of the 278 batters he has faced this season, 94 have managed to reach base. His counterpart on Sunday will be Clarke Schmidt. He's coming off a dreadful outing against arguably the best offense in baseball in Atlanta. I'm willing to give the rookie a pass for that poor start as he had been pitching well for an extended stretch, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his previous 14 starts. The Yankees bullpen continues to do its job having logged a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. I like the prospect of getting behind their relief corps here following consecutive lopsided games as most of their key arms remain rested. Take New York (10*). |
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08-19-23 | Patriots +3 v. Packers | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. While Patriots head coach Bill Bellichick isn't exactly known for his preseason success I do think last week's ugly showing at home against the Texans mattered. Here, the Pats will head back to the field following a couple of days of joint practices with the Packers and by all accounts New England took it to Green Bay in those sessions - particularly on offense. It's worth noting that the Pats check in off a loss last week as they haven't dropped consecutive preseason games (in the same year) since way back in 2017. The Packers are 'fat and happy' off a 36-19 dismantling of the Bengals, on the road no less, last week. That result was more about the Bengals sloppy play than it was the Packers sharpness. Here, we're once again likely to see plenty of Penn State alum Sean Clifford under center for the Packers. The Patriots defense was actually flying around against the Texans last week but didn't end up with much to show for it. I expect them to feast on the Packers depth-shy offense here. Take New England (10*). |
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08-19-23 | Montreal v. Ottawa +1.5 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Alouettes have won consecutive meetings in this series but haven't notched three straight victories over the RedBlacks since 2021. Here, they're in a tough spot noting they've gone a woeful 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following consecutive ATS victories as a favorite, as is the case here. Montreal will get QB Cody Fajardo back on the field this week but this is an offense that is predicated on running the football effectively. Note that Ottawa has been stout against the run this season, especially by CFL standards, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush. The previous two times the RedBlacks played at home off a loss this season they delivered a 26-7 win over Edmonton and a 31-28 victory over Winnipeg. Take Ottawa (8*). |
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08-19-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 8-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair to open this series last night with 11 total runs on the board. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as Boston sends Kutter Crawford to the hill against Gerrit Cole of the Yankees. Crawford has labored through his last couple of starts but it hasn't been all bad. He did allow just five of the 19 batters he faced reach base in a 6-3 win over the Tigers last time out. Note that Crawford has posted a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in eight road starts this season. In a similar vein, he has logged a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in six daytime outings. Gerrit Cole certainly hasn't been to blame for the Yankees recent struggles. He has worked at least six innings in eight straight starts, allowing two earned runs or less in six of those appearances. Cole owns a 2.87 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 14 home starts this season and a 2.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 13 daytime outings. Both bullpens are serviceable here. Incredibly, the Red Sox relief corps has converted 21 saves while blowing only two on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |