Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-04-21 | Oklahoma State +11.5 v. Baylor | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
#727 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State +11.5 over Baylor, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for a Baylor team that frankly isn’t playing to the dominant level they were earlier in the season. The Bears just beat West Virginia in OT on Tuesday night to clinch their first regular season Big 12 Title in 71 years! Now with their Big 12 tournament seeding set at #1, they have to play 48 hours later vs an Oklahoma State team that is playing their best basketball of the season. Baylor has played 3 games since returning from a 21 day covid break and as we mentioned, they haven’t been all that great. They rallied from 17 down to beat a bad Iowa State team (0-16 in the conference) by 5, lost by 13 @ Kansas, and then beat WVU in OT on Tuesday. They’ve hit only 43% of their shots over that 3 game stretch and they’ve been out rebounded in 2 of those games. Far from dominating. Okie State has won 8 of their last 10 including a sweep of a very good Oklahoma team their last 2 games. They’ve been impressive on the road with a 7-3 record including wins @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, and @ Marquette. The Cowboys 3 road losses in Big 12 play have come by an average of 6 PPG. These two met in January when Baylor was destroying pretty much everyone and the Bears topped OSU by 15. The Cowboys played that game without their star freshman Cade Cunningham (20 PPG & 6 RPG) who might just be the #1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. They were also without starter Rondel Walker who averages 9 PPG & 3 RPG. Prior to OSU losing earlier this year and obviously not at 100%, this was a tight series with the 4 match ups the last 2 seasons decided by 3, 4, 7, and 8 points. If this was Baylor’s final home game and Senior night, we might be reluctant to fade them even though this is a bad scheduling situation. However, they host Texas Tech this weekend for their home finale. We think OSU can give Baylor a big time scare here and taking the generous points is the play. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
#686 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Villanova -4 over Creighton, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Nova as a win pretty much clinches the Big East regular season title. It’s also their final home game so they are set to send off 2 of the better players in program history with a win. Starting PG Gillespie (1200 career points) and starting F Samuels are both seniors potentially playing their final game at home. Speaking of home, the Cats have been great in their own arena this year with a perfect 8-0 record and an average margin of victory of +16. Going back even further, Nova has won 63 of their last 70 home games and they have won 6 of their last 7 @ home vs the Jays. However, they did lose last year at home vs Creighton so they should have a little extra for this one. On top of that, the Wildcats traveled to Creighton on Feb 13th as a 2-point favorite and lost 86-70. The Blue Jays shot nearly 60% in that game and averaged a ridiculous 1.34 PPP. It was a terrible defensive performance and the Cats bounced back a few days later to beat a very good UConn team here at home. Speaking of bouncing back, Villanova had 3 losses on the season entering last weekend and they rebounded to win their following game after each of those. They laid an egg on Sunday @ Butler losing by 12 for their 4th loss of the season and we expect a huge effort in this one. They shot just 2 of 27 from three point range in that loss (7%) one of their worst performances in the Jay Wright era. Now they are back at home where they make 40% of their 3’s and average 81 PPG. Villanova was favored by 2 @ Creighton and now they are laying just 4 at home, off a loss, on Senior night. Like this spot for the Wildcats. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Nets -8 v. Rockets | Top | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -8 over Houston Rockets, 7:30 PM ET - This game sets up very similar to when we bet on the Nets over the Warriors in KD’s first game back in the Bay when Brooklyn handled Golden State. James Harden will play with a chip on his shoulder tonight back in Houston for the first time since being traded to the Nets. The NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team from beyond the arc this season at 40.5%. Houston is LAST in the league in 3-point shooting at 33%. Brooklyn will have their way offensively here with the highest scoring offense in the NBA at 120.8PPG going up against a Rockets defense that gives up 112.2PPG (18th). The Rockets are clearly reeling right now with 11-straight losses and 8 of those beats came against teams with sub .500 records. Brooklyn has won and covered 6 straight road games and they’ll get another big win here. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | St. Joe's v. La Salle OVER 151 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
#701/702 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 151 Points – LaSalle vs St Josephs, Wednesday at 11 AM ET - We expect this one to be a shootout. These 2 A10 foes faced each other on February 20th and the final score was St Joes 91 – LaSalle 82 in OT. At the end of the regulation the score was 77-77 so they totaled 154 prior to OT. Neither team was all that efficient in that game with St Joes averaging 1.01 PPP and LaSalle putting up 0.97 PPP, both below their season averages. These are the 2 fastest paced teams in the conference so as expected, we had a LOT of shot attempts in that first meeting. St Joes made 33 of their 68 shot attempts and LaSalle hit 31 of their 79 shot attempts. As you can see they only made 43% of their shots and combined to make just 24% of their 3’s yet these 2 still hit 154 in regulation. On top of that, they only hit 63% of their FT’s in the game. These are the 2 worst defensive efficiency teams in the conference and it shows on the court. The Explorers have allowed at least 73 points in 14 of their 16 conference games this season. The Hawks have allowed at least 80 points in 9 of their 12 A10 games. These 2 defenses rank 260th and 342nd in points allowed nationally this season. St Joes offense has really stepped it up over the last 3 games after getting star G Daly back in the line up after he missed 10 straight games. They have scored 97, 91, and 76 points in their 3 games since he came back and he is averaging 25 PPG in those 3. LaSalle was missing G Sanders, on of their top 3-point shooters, in their first meeting vs St Joes and he is now back and healthy. Both of these teams have the offense to get into the 80’s and higher and in a fast paced game with no defense, we like the OVER. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -1.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Badgers are not living up to expectations this year and they are flat out playing poorly right now. They are just 5-6 SU their last 11 games and their wins during that stretch have come against Nebraska, Northwestern (twice), Maryland, and Penn State. Against the top 6 teams in the Big 10 they are 0-6 SU this season. They haven’t faced Purdue yet, but the Boilers fall into the top 6 category ranking 6th in the league. Offensively UW has been really struggling as they have not gotten to 70 points in a full month. During that stretch they are shooting just 35% as a team. On the road this season the Badgers are hitting just 39% of their shots overall and only 30% from beyond the arc. Purdue has been very tough at home with a 9-1 record and their only loss coming to Michigan, the top team in the conference. How has Wisconsin done when traveling to Purdue? Terrible to put it lightly. The Badgers are 4-41 SU all time at Mackey Arena and their last with there came in 2014, the year Wisconsin went to the Final 4. While the Badgers are struggling, Purdue is playing much better having won 9 of their last 12 games. On offense they have had problems making 3-pointers, however the Boilers are much better at home in this area hitting 35% from deep and the Wisconsin defense has allowed their last 4 opponents to combine to shoot 46% from beyond the arc. Last year Purdue was favored by 4 in this match up at home and won 70-51. Now we’re getting them at a lower number vs a Wisconsin team that is headed in the wrong direction. Purdue wins and covers this one. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Knicks v. Spurs UNDER 215.5 | Top | 93-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 NY Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:35 PM ET - Both teams have favored the Under on the season with a combined 25-40 Under record and tonight they add to that record. These two teams are similar in many regards including poor offense ranking 21st (Spurs) and 29th (Knicks) in scoring in the NBA. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Spurs are 21st in the league while the Knicks are 23rd. It’s also no secret both teams like to play defense. The Knicks allow just 104PPG on the year which is the best overall number in the NBA while the Spurs give up 111.7PPG which ranks 12th. New York has the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.081-points per possession, the Spurs give up 1.108PPP which is 11th best in the NBA. The other important factor here is pace of play. The Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.2 possessions per game so playing slow is a priority for New York. The Spurs are 12th in pace of play but they are coming off a game last night so expect them to play at a slower tempo here. In fact, in games that the Spurs have played without rest the average total points scored in those contests is just 205.8PPG. San Antonio is on a 4-1 Under run at home and have stayed Under in 6 of their last eight overall. New York is on a ridiculous 14-3 Under streak their last 17 road games. Bet UNDER in the Knicks vs. Spurs. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Canucks v. Jets -115 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Winnipeg Jets Money Line -115 over Vancouver at 8 PM ET - The Canucks got a 4-0 shutout win yesterday at Winnipeg but the set up was perfect for them and, even in victory, they were outshot 27 to 19 by the Jets. Going into yesterday's game, Vancouver had 3 full days off since playing on Thursday and the Canucks were highly motivated to end their losing streak of 4 straight games in that one. They were catching the Jets at the perfect time to do just that. Winnipeg was coming off an emotional 2-1 OT win over Montreal Saturday. After back to back wins over the Canadiens, the first of which featured twice rallying from 2-goal deficits, the Jets were likely to be "out of gas" emotionally and physically last night and, sure enough, that proved to be the case. Last night, the Canucks were proven to be the fresher and hungrier team. However, now it is payback time for the Jets after that rare loss. Winnipeg, entering yesterday's game, had won 4 straight games and 8 of their last 11 games. The Canucks entered last night's game having lost 11 of 13 games. This was clearly a case of two teams heading opposite directions for multiple weeks now and one game does not change all that. The fact is that the Jets have been great in bounce back mode this season. Winnipeg is 6-1 this season when coming off a loss. Also, the goaltending match-up that is expected in this rematch favors the home side. The Jets are expected to start Laurent Brossoit. Even though he is the back-up to Connor Hellebuyck, Brossoit shutout the Canucks in his most recent start and has now allowed a total of just 2 goals in his last two appearances! He will likely be opposed by Vancouver's Braden Holtby who has been replaced by Thatcher Demko as the #1 guy for the Canucks and this is because of his struggles. Holtby lost 4 of his 5 starts last month and compiled a 3.86 GAA. This one will be all Jets as they improve to 7-1 this season when off a loss. We'll take advantage of the line value here because many would rate Holtby an edge over Brossoit in goal but that is simply not the case based on current level of play for these two. That said, the lower line on Winnipeg here is an excellent value as this the perfect spot to back a revenging team. Lay it! Take the JETS |
|||||||
03-01-21 | Canucks +120 v. Jets | Top | 4-0 | Win | 120 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Vancouver Canucks Money Line +120 over Winnipeg at 8 PM ET - Raise your hand if you also think it’s “fishy” that Winnipeg is such a small favorite in this game against a Vancouver team that has lost 4 straight and 11 of 13 games? Of course the markets have jumped on this as expected and driven the price a little higher but that just means more value with the underdog Canucks in this one. This game was priced this way for a reason. Vancouver has had 3 full days off since playing on Thursday and the Canucks are highly motivated to end their losing streak here. They are catching the Jets at the perfect time to do just that. Winnipeg is coming off an emotional 2-1 OT win over Montreal Saturday. After back to back wins over the Canadiens, the first of which featured twice rallying from 2-goal deficits, the Jets are likely to be "out of gas" here and the Canucks will prove to be the fresher and hungrier team. Winnipeg has won 4 straight games and this is their longest winning streak of the season. Look for them to come back down to earth in this one. Grab the road dog here for an upset that many will be surprised to see but we won't. The odds makers had this one right when they opened it up at such a small price. Take the CANUCKS |
|||||||
03-01-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 226 | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 226 Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - Points shouldn’t be a problem for these two teams tonight as both average 114+ points per game and rank in the top 8 in overall scoring. The interesting part though is both teams score in different fashions. The Bulls get their points with volume scoring opportunities as they are the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA. The Nuggets don’t play fast, but score with the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.17-points per possession. Another reason for plenty of scoring here is the lack of defense by both teams. You have to scroll down the defensive efficiency list to 14th to find the Bulls and 20th for the Nuggets. Chicago has the 9th best 3-point shooting FG percentage in the NBA, Denver is 5th. Both teams rank 7th or higher in overall field-goal percentage. Nuggets on 20-6 Over streak as a road favorite, Bulls 7-3 to the Over their last ten as a home dog. |
|||||||
03-01-21 | Rutgers -7 v. Nebraska | Top | 51-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
#841 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers -7 over Nebraska, Monday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge game for the NCAA bubble team Rutgers. They are 9-9 in Big 10 play and cannot afford a loss at last place Nebraska. The Scarlet Knights are in a much better situation for this match up as they have had off since their win over Indiana last Wednesday. Nebraska, on the other hand, continues their brutal scheduling with their 5th game in 10 days. Since returning from their Covid break in early February, this will be the Huskers 12th game in 24 days. Nebraska has just 2 wins in their last 16 games including a win over Minnesota on Saturday here at home. That was a 4 point win over a Gopher team that is trending downward losing 8 of their last 10 games and they played on Saturday without starting guard Kalscheur and starting center Robbins who were out with injury. The Huskers shot WAY above their season averages hitting 55% for the game (they average 41% on the season) and 53% from 3-point range (they average 33% for the season) and were still leading by only 1 point with under 20 seconds remaining the game. This is a bad match up for Nebraska. They struggle big time on offense ranking 14th (dead last) in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency. Rutgers defense has been exceptional all season ranking 14th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Knights defense also creates a lot of turnovers ranking 2nd in the conference while Rutgers has been careless with the ball all season long coughing it up almost 20% of the time which is last in the Big 10. Lastly, the Nebraska defense excels at guarding the arc and that’s about it. However, Rutgers relies very little on the 3 point shot with only 28% of their points coming from deep. When these 2 met in Lincoln last year, Rutgers was favored by 5 points and won by 17. We see another double digit win for the Scarlet Knights so we’re laying the points. |
|||||||
02-28-21 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 223 | Top | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Golden State Warriors @ LA Lakers, 8 PM ET - Our analytics don’t see these two rivals combining for more than 218 total points in this contest. You’ll be surprised to know that neither of these two teams rank in the top half of the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency. The Warriors (18th) average 1.11PPP while the Lakers (19th) average 1.109PPP. In their last five games the Lakers have been worse yet averaging 1.029PPP which is 29th in the league, barely above the Timberwolves. On the other end of the court though both teams have been outstanding this season when it comes to defense. The Lakers are the #1 rated defensive efficiency team in the league while the Warriors are 4th. Inside their DEFF numbers a couple key stats that stand out are each teams FG% defense as they Warriors rank 2nd overall in the NBA, the Lakers 5th. Golden State is coming off a high scoring game against a bad defensive team in Charlotte, but prior to that game had totaled less than 220 total points in three straight games. As we mentioned before the Lakers offense has been atrocious without Anthony Davis in the lineup as L.A. has failed to reach 100-points in three of their last five games and 102 or less in four of five. Golden State on 5-1 Under run their last six road games, Lakers Under in 5 of their last six. |
|||||||
02-28-21 | Knicks v. Pistons UNDER 215 | Top | 109-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 NY Knicks @ Detroit Pistons, 8 PM ET - This certainly isn’t a marquee game on the ticket Sunday but it’s one that offers the best opportunity to win. Let’s start with pace of play first. These two teams are two of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and neither want to get up and down here. In fact, the Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.1 possessions per game, while the Pistons are the 6th slowest. When it comes to offense both teams struggle as the Pistons average just 108PPG which ranks 25th in the NBA. Detroit is 28th in field goal percentage and 25th in 3-point percentage. The Pistons are 25th in offensive efficiency rating averaging .979-points per possession. New York has similar numbers when it comes to offense as they score just 104.7PPG (29th), shot just 45.1% (24th) and 36.4% from beyond the 3-point line. The Knicks are also one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league ranking 23rd. Defensively the Knicks are 3rd in the NBA in points allowed per possession at 1.087PPP while the Pistons are 19th at 1.123PPP. The Knicks are 4-13 Under on the road this season while the Pistons are 6-9 Under at home. Pistons on 5-1 Under run overall, while Knicks on 21-9 Under streak last 30 games. These two don’t reach 210 total points here. |
|||||||
02-28-21 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 5.5 Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks, 7:00 PM ET - Yesterday's game me ended up 5-3 even though there were only 2 power play opportunities the entire game. That said, there was plenty of scoring 5 on 5 and we expect more of the same here. The Red Wings are off back to back wins and have scored 5 goals in each victory so their confidence is growing. However, Thomas Greiss is expected to get the start for Detroit here and he hasn't played in over a week and struggled badly in that one against Florida. The Blackhawks also have some concern between the pipes here too as they have now allowed 5 goals in 3 of their last 4 games! Kevin Lankinen expected to get the start here and he has allowed 4 or more goals in back to back starts and 3 of his last 5. The Blackhawks were more of an "over team" last season and we're seeing a return to that in recent action and, with the confidence of the young Red Wings growing, this will "force the issue" here and this turns into another high-scoring affair on Sunday. Based on value and the situation - and the fact the markets have not yet adjusted to a total of 6 goals - still holding at 5.5 as of mid-morning, we like OVER here. |
|||||||
02-28-21 | Nevada +8 v. Utah State | Top | 66-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nevada +8 over Utah State, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These 2 played on Friday night here in Logan, Utah and the Aggies came away with a 75-72 win. It was a bad spot for Nevada as they were coming off a 19 day Covid layoff and we expected them to be rusty. They were as USU built a 16-point halftime lead and the Wolfpack made only 8 field goals in the first 20 minutes. They fell down by as many as 21 points but we were impressed with Nevada’s resolve. They battled back and nearly pulled off the win. Head coach Steve Alford admitted his team looked rusty for the first 25 minutes of the game but looked much more like themselves in the final 15 minutes. That’s a big positive heading into this game. Before their long layoff this Nevada team was very good. They won 6 of their 8 games before their hiatus including topping Boise State twice and the Broncos were in 1st place heading into this weekend before dropping 2 very tight games vs San Diego State, the highest rated team in the MWC. They are 9-6 in league play and all 6 of their losses have come by margins of 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, and 7 points. Utah State has faced the top 5 teams in the league a combined 7 times. They are 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in those games and they are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS vs top 100 teams (Nevada falls into that category). Their starting PG Worster (10 PPG & 4 APG) has now missed 3 straight games and he is questionable at best again on Sunday. On Friday Nevada shot just 34% from inside the arc and attempted only 14 FT’s. On the season in MWC play they average 52% inside the arc and they get to the FT line more than any other team with 22% of their points coming from the line (they make 77% of those FT’s). Even with that (they were also -7 made FTs) they came back and took this Utah State team to the wire. With their momentum in the final 15 minutes on Friday, we think the Wolfpack will play much better on Sunday. They have covered 16 of their 21 games this year and we expect another tight one here. Take the points. |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Pacers v. Knicks +1 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +1 over Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - We like the situation to fade the Pacers here who are playing the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. Indiana lost a big game last night against the Celtics with four of their five starters logging heavy minutes. That’s a big concern considering they rank 25th in bench scoring in the NBA and lack depth. The Pacers will have a tough time scoring here against a Knicks team that is 1st in points allowed per game, 1st in FG% defense and 1st in 3-point percentage D. New York allows just 1.087 points per possession which ranks 3rd overall in the NBA. New York has struggled offensively for the season but seem to have found their rhythm after putting up 140 points against the Kings. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games including 4 of their last five at home. The play here is New York. |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers +105 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers Money Line +105 over Toronto Maple Leafs at 7 PM ET - Edmonton has won 5 straight games and 11 of last 13. No one has questioned the firepower of the Oilers coming into this season but the concern was always the goaltending. However, ever since Mike Smith came back Edmonton has been getting a lot of strong play in the crease. Even Mikko Koskinen has come up with some big starts too. The Oilers have allowed just 1.3 goals per game in their last 9 victories. It use to be the only way that Edmonton won games was 4-3 or 5-4 type high-scoring affairs but the Oilers are really on top of their game now. That being said, and with this being a 1-2 battle at the top of the North Division, we love the line value being offered to the home dog. Toronto has a great record this but, prior their tight 2-1 OT win versus Calgary (scored late to force OT) the Leafs had lost 3 of last 6 games. The Oilers are absolutely the hotter team right now and worthy of a strong play as a home dog in this spot. Edmonton is a different team than the one the Leafs faced back in January and the teams split those 4 games. Now the home team is playing even stronger and takes the season series edge with a win here per our computer math model. Take the OILERS |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Wolves v. Wizards OVER 237.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 237.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET - The Total on this game seems relatively high in the mid-230’s but our predictive analytics are projecting 240 plus in this game. Minnesota recently made a coaching change but it won’t affect their style of play as new coach Finch prefers to play fast and shoot a lot of 3’s. The Wolves currently 6th in the league in possessions per game which plays right into Washington’s hands who rank 1st in the NBA in pace. Washington is one of the highest scoring teams in the league led by the 1-2 combination of Beal and Westbrook. The Wolves are coming off a game against the Bulls who are similar to Washington in terms of pace and efficiency ratings and that game had 238 total points at the end or regulation. The Wiz are coming off three straight games against some of the leagues slower paced teams and will welcome the faster pace they prefer on Saturday. Neither team is known for their defense as the Wizards own the 27th ranked defensive efficiency unit while the Wolves are 22nd. Minnesota gives up 116.1PPG (27th) while Washington allows 119.5PPG (29th). The last five meetings between these two teams have all resulted in 239 or more points. BET OVER! |
|||||||
02-27-21 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota -1 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
#682 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota -1 over North Dakota State, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is just the 2nd home game this month for South Dakota. That was their most recent game and a win one week ago vs Nebraska Omaha and prior to that the Coyotes had lost 3 of 4 but those games were all on the road (4 straight road games). At home this year they are perfect in Summit League play and their only home loss this season was vs Drake, who is a top 25 type team when fully healthy. Their last home loss in conference play was last season vs this North Dakota State team (lost by 3) so some extra motivation for the Coyotes here. In fact, they have won 15 of their last 16 conference home games with that only loss coming vs NDSU. The Bison sit a half game behind South Dakota in 2nd place in the Summit but their road resume has been shaky at best. They are 3-6 SU on the road this year and their conference games on the road (6 of them) have been vs UMKC twice (ranked 215th and split the 2 games), North Dakota twice (ranked 299th and split the 2 games), and Western Illinois (ranked 305th). They have not played any of the top teams in the league on the road this season. On top of that, the Bison haven’t played a road game in a full month! Every game they’ve played in February has been at home. South Dakota averages 84 PPG, 54% shooting, and 45% from 3-point range at home. They also make 81% of their FT’s in conference play which is best in the league. They are tough to stop here at the Sanford Sports Complex. North Dakota State struggles on offense at times and they are averaging only 66 PPG on the road this season. We think they’ll have a hard time scoring enough to stay in this one. With the line set where it is, we basically just need South Dakota to win this game at home. We’ll take our chances with that. |
|||||||
02-26-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -7.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -7.5 over Nevada, Friday at 9 PM ET - Utah State finally gets to play at home. They have played 5 straight road games with their most recent home game coming back on January 21st. They’ve had a huge home court advantage over the years winning 37 of their last 41 games in Logan and they are one of the few teams in the MWC that is allowing fans so that helps as well. The Aggies had a 13 day break from Feb 4 thru Feb 17 so they were a bit rusty last week in their back to back games @ Boise State, the 1st place team in the conference. Even with that, this Aggie team played quite well taking the Broncos to the wire in each losing by 9 (it was a 1-point game with 4:30 remaining) and losing by 4. USU led both games at halftime but shot just 7 of 30 from 3-point range in the 2 games combined and they were -16 made FT’s. Despite that, they nearly pulled off wins vs 14-3 (in MWC play) Boise State. Now back at home in must win mode we expect them to play very well. They are catching Nevada in a bad spot. The Wolfpack are just back from a Covid hiatus and haven’t played in 20 days. They have a solid 9-5 MWC record but they are 0-4 SU on the road in conference play. That’s right, only 4 of their 14 conference games have been true road games. We expect Nevada to struggle on offense after their long layoff and it doesn’t help they are playing the top defense in the Mountain West. Utah State ranks #1 in defensive efficiency, 3-point % defense, 2-point % defense, and blocked shots. It’ll be tough for a Nevada team that shoots just 42% on the road (31% from 3) to get any offensive rhythm in this game. USU has already proven they can beat the best in the league here at home as they swept the top rated team San Diego State. The host has covered 8 of the last 9 in this series and we like Utah State to win this by double digits. |
|||||||
02-25-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan State OVER 145 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#765/766 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 145 Points – Ohio State @ Michigan State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago and they combined to score 141 points with OSU winning 79-62. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 38% in that game including just 26% from beyond the arc and they still topped 140. We look for a much better offensive performance from both teams on Thursday. The Spartans season only offensive efficiency numbers are not overly impressive but over the last few games this teams seems to be coming together on that end of the court. They combined to shoot 51% while scoring 78 and 81 points in their last 2 games vs Indiana (37th nationally in defensive efficiency) and Illinois (15th nationally in defensive efficiency). In their first game vs OSU the Spartans were just coming back from a long Covid break and struggled scoring just 0.89 PPP which was well below their season average of 1.08 PPP. If the Buckeyes have a weakness, it’s on defense where they rank 7th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and 9th in eFG% defense. We think MSU continues to play well on offense in this game. OSU’s offense has been fantastic all season. They rank 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency and in the top 60 in eFG%, 3-point FG%, 2-point FG%, and FT%. They just put up 87 points over the weekend on Michigan who is the #1 defense in the Big Ten (MSU ranks 8th in that category). They have scored at least 73 points in 8 straight games and they have topped 80 in half of those games (4). Both teams get to the FT line a lot (3rd and 4th in Big Ten in % of points from the line) and in the first meeting they combined to attempt 60 freebies. If they simply shoot better from the field in this one, this easily gets into the 150’s. Ohio state has gone OVER the total in 6 of their last 7 games (one push during that stretch) while MSU, with their offense now coming together, has gone OVER 3 straight games. With the spread at OSU -4, the projected scored is 76-72. We like both teams to top their projected numbers and this one goes OVER the total. |
|||||||
02-25-21 | Kings v. Knicks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 121-140 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Sacramento Kings @ NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - Two contrasting styles square off in the Garden Thursday night where the faster paced Kings (20th in pace) take on the leagues slowest paced team in the Knicks. New York is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA allowing just 1.084 points per possession which is 3rd best in the league. The Kings on the other hand are last in the league in DEFF allowing 1.190PPP. Offensively the Knicks are 23rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging 1.081PPP, the Kings rank 11th at 1.131PPP. The Kings have given up a ton of points in their last five games which has driven this Total up to as high as it currently is but the reality is they’ve faced some of the NBA’s highest scoring teams recently. Sacramento gave up 127 and 136 to the Nets (1st in scoring), 128 to Milwaukee (2nd), 122 Chicago (8th) and 118 to the Heat who are finally healthy. The Knicks aren’t interested in playing a fast-paced game and getting into a shootout, so they’ll dictate tempo. New York has held 5 of their last ten opponents to less than 100-points and they’ve scored less than 110 in 8 of their last ten. The Kings are on a 5-0 Under run against losing teams while the Knicks are 10-1 Under their last eleven against sub .500 teams. The bet here is UNDER the Total. |
|||||||
02-25-21 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets -124 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -124 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line -125 over Chicago Blackhawks at 7 PM ET - From a situational perspective, this one is a fantastic one in terms of how it sets up. Columbus has gone a perfect 4-0 this season when they have entered a game off back to back losses. Their coach John Tortorella is a very demanding coach and you can bet he is on his team big after any loss but particularly back to back defeats. Sure enough the Jackets have responded each time when in this situation this season and the combined score has been 15 to 7 in those victories. Columbus has scored an average of 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Chicago got the shootout win, 6-5, in a crazy high-scoring win over the Blue Jackets Tuesday. That kind of high-scoring effort from the Blackhawks on the road is absolutely the exception rather than the norm this season. Their prior road game was a 5-3 loss at Carolina and, prior to that, Chicago had played 10 road games and only scored well in one of them. In the other 9 the Blackhawks scored an average of only 1.6 goals per game. In other words, their performance Tuesday was most definitely an aberration and the Blue Jackets are set up well to get revenge tonight at a great price. Chicago is expected to start Malcolm Subban in this one and there is a reason that, long-term in the NHL, he has always been a back-up rather than the starter. The Blackhawks Subban had a 3.17 GAA last season and historically has struggled on the road. He has been better than expected early this season but that is a very small sample size and his long-term numbers tell the full story. Look for Joonas Korpisalo to respond in the crease for the Blue Jackets tonight as he had been solid in 2 of 3 starts against Chicago before struggling in Tuesday's shootout loss. It is payback time for Columbus and Korpisalo in this one! Considering all of the above factors, look for a home ice blowout in this one. Take the BLUE JACKETS |
|||||||
02-24-21 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 217.5 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - When we combined these two team’s overall O/U records we see there is a slight trend towards the Under with a 27 Over & 31 Under combined record. The Spurs are in a tough spot here playing their first game after a 10-day layoff because of Covid protocols. San Antonio had to call up some players from the G-league and will be down to 10-players on the roster tonight. Missing from the Spurs lineup are FIVE double-digit scorers and a combined 71.4 points per game! OKC comes into this game having scored 105 or less points in regulation in 5 of their last nine games and 110 or less in 6 of nine. The Thunder are the WORST offensive efficiency team in the NBA at 1.050 points per possession, the Spurs aren’t much better (21st) at 1.100PPP. Both teams are solid defensively though with San Antonio ranking 10th in defensive efficiency, the Thunder are 13th in DEFF. When the Spurs have face losing teams with a below .400 winning percentage, they are 5-2 to the Under this season. Tying into that same train of thought, the Thunder are Under 14 of their last twenty when facing a team with a winning record. The bet here is UNDER |
|||||||
02-24-21 | Flames v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 6 Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:00 PM ET - The Maple Leafs were handed a 3-0 shutout loss by the Flames on Monday. Toronto has scored an average of 4.2 goals per game when off a loss this season. Certainly the Leafs will again respond off defeat here but this is also a team that has now allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of the last 5 games. In those 4 games the Maple Leafs have allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game. We are absolutely looking for a 4-3 type game here. Calgary had allowed an average of 4.3 goals per game in the 4 games previous to the shutout win at Toronto Monday. Also, the power play performance (0 for 7) for Toronto in that game Monday was entirely unexpected as the Maple Leafs, even including that rare 0 for 7, have converted 33% of their opportunities with the man advantage this season. An average Leafs game this season is 6.3 goals and this one has a posted total of 6 even though it could easily be higher given the Maple Leafs track record of scoring well off of losses this year. Based on value and the situation - and the fact the markets have not yet adjusted to a total of 6.5 goals - still holding at 6 as of mid-day, we like OVER here. |
|||||||
02-24-21 | Seton Hall -7.5 v. Butler | Top | 52-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
#683 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -7.5 over Butler, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting one of the top teams in the Big East here coming off a loss. Seton Hall lost at Georgetown 81-75 on Saturday. The Hoyas host lights out hitting 50% of their shot overall and 62% of their 3-pointers. Even with that fantastic offensive effort by Georgetown, the Pirates were in the game all the way and lost by just 6. Prior to that loss Seton Hall had won 6 of their previous 8 road games with their lone road losses during this stretch coming by 2 points @ Villanova , the top team in the Big East, and @ Creighton, the 2nd rated team in the conference. Butler, since coming back from their month long Covid break, is just 1-3 with their only win coming by 2 points in OT. The Bulldogs are just 3-3 their last 6 home games with 2 of those wins coming in OT. Butler has played 10 home games this year and they’ve actually been outscored in those games. Butler just lost by double digits vs Xavier and the Bulldogs were without 3 of their top players in that game. The 3 players that were out vs Xavier (Nze, Thompson, and Hodges) combine to average 30 PPG and 17 RPG on the season. They are all questionable again for this game. Butler’s offense already struggles with those guys at full strength as they rank 10th in the Big East in offensive efficiency and 10th in eFG%. They have averaged just 57 PPG over their last 3 games and if those guys are out or not at 100%, this team is in trouble on offense. Seton Hall has a big edge on offense (ranks 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency) and if this one comes down to FT’s, the Pirates hit 77% of their freebies in Big East play while Butler makes only 63% from the line. The road team has covered 5 straight in this series and we like Seton Hall to roll in this game. |
|||||||
02-23-21 | Connecticut -4 v. Georgetown | Top | 70-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
#635 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Connecticut -4 over Georgetown, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We like the value we’re getting with UConn in this game. The Huskies are just 7-6 in Big East play but they are much better than their record. That’s because their top player, James Bouknight, one of the top NBA prospects in the Big East, is now back in the lineup after missing 8 games. He’s been back for 2 games, played 60 minutes, scored 40 points, and 14 rebounds. With Bouknight in the lineup, the Huskies have a 6-2 record with their only losses to Creighton in OT and Villanova by 8 on Saturday. With him out of the lineup, UConn has a record of 4-4. We’re getting the Huskies off a tough loss @ Villanova on Saturday in a game where they made only 36% of their shots, 26% of their 3-pointers, and were -6 made FT’s and still only lost by 8 on the road vs the top team in the conference. We expect a strong performance off that loss. Georgetown is on the opposite end of the spectrum coming into this game. They are off a huge 81-75 home win over Seton Hall as a 4.5 point underdog. The Hoyas shot the lights out in that win hitting 50% of their shots overall and a ridiculous 62% of their 3-pointers and the game was still nip and tuck the entire 2nd half. We have a feeling the won’t shoot like that in this game vs a UConn team that ranks #1 in the Big East in defensive efficiency. Plus this game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington DC, home of the Wizards, and this will be G’Towns first game here this season so home court advantage, if there was any, is out the window. At home this season the Hoyas were +4.5 vs Seton Hall over the weekend, +4.5 vs Marquette, +4.5 vs Providence, and +7.5 vs Creighton. Based on those numbers, we’re getting value with UConn who we have rated as the 3rd best team in the Big East when fully healthy. We like UConn to win and cover here. |
|||||||
02-23-21 | 76ers -120 v. Raptors | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers Money Line -120 over Toronto Raptors, 7:35 PM ET - We like the 76ers in this second game of the back-to-back with the Raptors who won the first meeting by 7-points. The Raptors won Sunday but Philly clearly had some anomalies which attributed to Toronto’s win. 76ers center Joel Embiid had a poor shooting night going 6 of 20 from the field, which is well below his season average of 53.6%. Embiid was coming off a 50-point game so the let down is not a surprise given the circumstances. Because of Embiids poor shooting night, the Raptors outscored the Sixers in the paint which is not normal considering Philly is 14th in the league compared to Toronto being 28th in points in the paint. Philadelphia is the 9th best shooting team in the NBA at 47.7% but shot just 39% on Sunday. The Raptors are the 22nd worst shooting team in the league, yet shot 49%, well above their season average against Philly on Sunday. The Raptors do not enjoy a home court advantage like they typically have in the past as their home games are currently played in Florida. With the 76ers back at full strength and coming off a loss to Toronto we like them here in payback mode. |
|||||||
02-23-21 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets -118 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line -120 over Chicago Blackhawks at 7 PM ET - The Blue Jackets enter this game off a home loss to Nashville. Columbus is a perfect 4-0 this season in a game that follows a home ice loss. The Jackets also enter this game seeking revenge against the Blackhawks. The most recent meeting between these teams resulted in a 3-2 OT loss for Columbus at Chicago. The Blackhawks have won 9 of their 19 games this season overall. However, Chicago is a perfect 4-0 against the Red Wings this season and Detroit is absolutely the worst team in this division. That is significant because the Blackhawks have lost 10 of 15 games against teams not named the Red Wings this season! Overall, on the road this season, other than a 2-0 at Detroit, the Blackhawks have lost 7 of 9 games as travelers. Now Chicago takes on an angry Blue Jackets team that is at home and 4-0 this season when off a home loss. Per our computer math model, the home team prevails in convincing fashion in this match-up. Take the BLUE JACKETS |
|||||||
02-22-21 | Wizards +7 v. Lakers | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +7 over LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - If you’ve followed ASA for any length of time you know stats, averages, numbers drive our handicapping process. But there also other factors that go into it and we couldn’t help but notice how tired LeBron looked in the Lakers last game against the Heat. James played 37+ minutes, scored 19-points on 7 of 21 shooting, with 11 rebounds and 9 assists. It’s clear the real MVP of the Lakers is Anthony Davis and without him on the court the Lakers and the aging James are good, but not great. We are ignoring the full season statistics for both teams in this matchup and focusing on the last five games for each. Without AD the Lakers offensive efficiency numbers have plummeted as have their defensive efficiency ratings. The Lakers have the #1 ranked defensive efficiency on the season, but in their last five games they rank 14th. Los Angeles is 2-3 SU their last five games and off two straight losses against Brooklyn and Miami. The Wizards on the other hand look like they’ve started to figure things out. Washington has won 4 straight games and they’ve come against quality competition (Boston, Houston, Denver & Portland). The Wiz have one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA on the season but in their last five games they rank 4th best. In their last five games the Wiz are shooting 46.5% and holding foes to 43% shooting. In that same span of those games the Lakers are shooting 45.5% and allowing 47.6%. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS when playing a below .500 opponent this season and this number is too much for the short-handed Lakers to cover. Wizards on a 5-1 ATS run their last six against a team with a winning record. |
|||||||
02-22-21 | Oregon v. USC -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
#870 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3.5 over Oregon, Monday at 9 PM ET - We like the line value AND the situation for USC here. They were just favored by 6 at home vs Arizona, a team we have power rated almost dead even with Oregon, but now they are laying just 3.5. The Trojans are coming off a home loss, just their 4th loss of the season (now 18-4 record, vs the Wildcats. It wasn’t a huge surprise as Arizona was coming off back to back losses and it was a huge game for the talented Wildcats. USC shot just 42% in the game (they average 47% at home) and averaged just 1.03 PPP and their season average is 1.14 PPG so it was an underwhelming performance from the Trojans. At home USC has won 28 of their last 32 games and their average home margin of victory is +13 this season. The Trojans were on a huge roll winning 13 of their previous 14 coming into Saturday’s game vs Arizona. Oregon is coming of back to back huge home wins over Colorado & Utah. Both games went to the wire with the Ducks winning by 4 & 3 points. Now this is a tough spot for the Ducks as they are playing their 5th game in 12 days. USC has been a great bounce back team covering 9 of their last 11 games following an outright loss. Their 6 home wins in Pac 12 play have come by margins of 17, 18, 13, 8, 26, and 18 points. The Ducks have 4 conference road wins, but three of those have coming vs Utah, Arizona State, and Washington, all who have losing records in the Pac 12 (and losing overall records). The Trojans have the BEST defense in the Pac 12 in terms of defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Over the weekend they allowed Arizona to hit 1.16 PPP which was their worst defensive effort by far this season in Pac 12 play. Expect USC to play very well on defense tonight vs Oregon and we like the Trojans to pick up the win and cover. |
|||||||
02-22-21 | Lightning -123 v. Hurricanes | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line -125 over Carolina Hurricanes at 7 PM ET - This is a rare chance to take a strong team off back to back losses. The Bolts have lost back to back games and they are the defending Stanley Cup Champs for a reason. Last season they responded in the post-season each time off a loss. In the regular season they had 5 two-game losing streaks last season. Only two losing streaks the entire season went beyond two losses. This is a team that has proven time and time again they know how to respond and, after a 4-0 loss to the Hurricanes on Saturday, you can bet on the Lightning making the most of this chance to respond here immediately. Carolina will again be without Teuvo Teravainen and he is a key contributor for them. After Alex Nedeljkovic got the shutout win for the Hurricanes Saturday, James Reimer is expected to get the start between the pipes tonight. He has a great record this season but it hasn't been based on his dominant play. In fact, Reimer has allowed at least 3 goals in each of his last 7 starts. This includes 19 goals in his last 5 starts for an average of 3.8 goals per game. To put this in proper perspective, Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled a little in recent starts and yet he has a stellar 2.01 GAA on the season! Before his loss to the Hurricanes on Saturday, Vasilevskiy had allowed 2 or less goals in 9 of his first 12 starts this season. He and the Lightning are poised for big-time revenge here on Monday. Tampa Bay lost the first meeting between these teams last month so this is now a double revenge spot for them and that defeat was in overtime. That was a 1-0 OT loss and the Lightning are too strong of a team to get shut down 3 straight times by a Hurricanes team whose biggest problem this season has actually been keeping pucks out of their own net! Revenge road rout expected here. Lay it! Take the LIGHTNING |
|||||||
02-21-21 | Kings v. Bucks OVER 237 | Top | 115-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 237 Sacramento Kings @ Milwaukee Bucks, 9 PM ET - The Bucks are coming off a couple low scoring games against Toronto and Oklahoma City but now face a Kings team that is one of the worst in the NBA defensively. In fact, the Kings rank 30th in the NBA in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.187 points per possession or 119.3PPG. Sacramento’s defense is last in the league in field goal percentage D and 29th in 3-point percentage D. This game presents the perfect opportunity for a Bucks offense that has been struggling to return to early season success. Milwaukee is 2nd in the league in scoring at 118.9PPG, 2nd best shooting team overall and own the 3rd best 3-point FG%. Obviously, to get this Over to cash we are going to need both teams to play fast. The Bucks are 5th in the league in pace of play while the Kings are 11th so we can expect a faster paced game. Also, we will need Sacramento to score here to get to this number and the Kings rank 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.131PPP. Based on recent Total on Milwaukee games this number is actually a bargain considering the opponent. Bet OVER here. |
|||||||
02-21-21 | Michigan v. Ohio State +2 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
#798 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State +2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We had this one power rated to OSU -3 so we feel there is some value with the Buckeyes. Michigan is 10-1 in the Big 10 and on top of the conference but they are still getting back into a groove after a long 3 week layoff. Since they’ve come back they’ve only played 2 games beating Wisconsin on the road and Rutgers at home. Their win @ Wisconsin may look like a big win but the Badgers have really been struggling over the last few weeks and UW actually led for much of that game including by 14 at half. The Wolverines other game was a 7 point home win over Rutgers. Their offense wasn’t great in either game as they combined to make only 43% of their shots in their first 2 games back from the Covid break, well below their season average of 49%. In their first 2 games they’ve underperformed both offensively and defensively on a points per possession basis when comparing to their overall conference stats on the season. The Wolverines road schedule to date has been one of the easiest in the Big 10 as they have not faced any of the top 4 rated teams in the conference on the road yet this season. Until Sunday. Ohio State is playing as well as any team in the country right now. They have won 7 straight and 10 of their last 11 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Purdue by just 2 points. That was a game the Buckeyes shot just 37%, played without their starting PG, and still led by 5 with under 2:00 remaining. OSU hasn’t had any long Covid interruptions and they are in a groove right now. They are 12-4 in the conference and 8 of those wins have come by double digits. If they want any shot at a Big 10 title, they have to win this home game vs first place Michigan. They are catching the Wolverines at a perfect time as they are still trying to get their legs back under them after their break. The host has covered 8 of the last 10 in this rivalry and where the line sits now at -1, all we need OSU to do is win this game. We think they will. |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Wizards v. Blazers -4 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Wiz have the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA when playing on the road at minus -8.1PPG and hold a 3-12 SU road record. Portland has been better on the road than they’ve been at home this season, but they have won three straight home games and are on a red hot 6-game winning streak overall. The Blazers current run of 6 straight wins have come by an average of 8.6PPG. On the season the Blazers have some disturbing defensive numbers but so do the Wizards as both teams rank in the bottom six of the league in efficiency numbers. In their last five games though the Blazers are averaging 1.257 points per possession which is 5th best in the NBA. Even though Washington has won 3 straight games, their offensive efficiency their last five games ranks 22nd in the league and they have a negative differential of -2.6PPG. The biggest separator here is 3-point shooting. Washington holds the 25th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA allowing 38.4% while Portland is the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 38.9%. The All-Star starters were recently released and MVP candidate Damian Lillard got snubbed so expect a motivated effort from him here. Washington is just 2-6 ATS their last eight road games, Blazers 6-1 ATS their last 7 at home against a team with a losing record. |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Kings +138 v. Coyotes | Top | 4-2 | Win | 138 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Kings Money Line +138 over Arizona Coyotes at 7 PM ET - This line has dropped from its opener even though Arizona is the popular choice here. What does that tell us? It means the sharp money is coming in on Los Angeles. That makes perfect sense with us and also is in direct correlation with the result our computer math model is predicting for this one as well. The Kings are supposed to be a bad team this season but don't tell that to them! They have won 3 straight games and their confidence is growing with each victory. After back to back wins by a combined 10-2 score they then beat the Coyotes by a 3-2 count in the shootout Thursday. Though it took OT for them to get that victory, the Kings took a 2-goal lead in the first period and never trailed in that game. Simply put, the Coyotes are a gritty but unimpressive team. Arizona has now lost 5 of its last 7 games on home ice. They simply don't merit being this large of a favorite right now and this is particularly true against a Los Angeles team that is surging. Grab the underdog value here. Take the KINGS |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Seton Hall v. Georgetown OVER 141 | Top | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
#709/710 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 141 Points – Seton Hall @ Georgetown, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - We expect BOTH of these teams to get into the 70’s so it’s OVER the total for us. When these 2 met earlier this year they total 145 points with the Hall winning 78-67. They got to the mid 140’s yet neither team shot all that great as they combined to make just 39% of their shots. They both fell well below their points per possession numbers on the year with Seton Hall averaging 1.05 PPP in the first meeting (they average 1.14 on the season) and G’Town averaging just 0.91 PPP in that meeting (averaging 1.06 PPP on the season). The pace was quick in the first meeting as they combined to attempt 132 total shots (70 for the Hall & 62 for the Hoyas). Both teams are excellent FT shooting teams (75%) and they made 26 of their 31 FT’s in the first meeting. Historically these 2 Big East rivals have gotten to at least 140 in 6 of their last 7 meetings. The Hoyas have allowed 8 of their 11 Big East opponents to get to at least 70 points. In their most recent game vs Butler, who is the slowest team in the conference and 10th in offensive efficiency, the combined for 141 points. Seton Hall has had some low scoring games in Big East play but when they’ve faced one of the top 4 highest tempo teams in the league (G’Town in 3rd) the Pirates have totaled 145, 145, 141, 153, and 166 total points. We like OVER in this one. |
|||||||
02-19-21 | Toledo v. Buffalo -2 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -2 over Toledo, 9 PM ET - Raise your hand if you also think it’s “fishy” that Buffalo is favored in this game against a Toledo team that is 12-3 in conference action? The Rockets have been favored in 11 straight games and 18 of twenty-three this season and are now a dog to 9-6 Buffalo? When we examine conference games only we find the Rockets have the best offensive efficiency numbers in the league at 1.187PPP but Buffalo has the best defensive efficiency allowing just .929PPP. The Bulls offense isn’t as good as the Rockets, but they are 4th in offensive efficiency and will have an advantage over Toledo’s 6th ranked DEFF unit. Most of the other key statistical advantages Toledo would normally have over other teams are nullified by Buffalo’s defensive statistics. The biggest advantage the Bulls have is that they are the best offensive rebound team in the MAC compared to a Toledo defense that is LAST in the league in defensive rebounding. Buffalo is 29-9 SU their last 38 at home with an average margin of victory of +13PPG. The Bulls are playing extremely confident right now and will be primed for a game against the top team in the MAC here. |
|||||||
02-19-21 | Bulls +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +8.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35PM ET - The Bulls have played better than expectations this season as evidenced by their overall winning spread record of 16-11 versus the number. Chicago has a losing overall record of 12-15 SU but their average loss margin is -0.8PPG which gets you a lot of covers as an underdog. In fact, the Bulls are on a wallet stuffing 10-1 ATS streak as a road underdog. The Bulls are more than capable of trading points with the 76ers with a top 10 scoring offense, 8th best overall shooting percentage in the NBA and the 7th best 3-point percentage at 38%. Philadelphia is 19-10 SU on the year with an average margin of victory of +3PPG. When playing at home the Sixers have a +/- differential of +6PPG which is 6th best in the league but still not enough to cover this spread against the Bulls. Philly is 5-2 ATS their last seven games at home as a favorite but only of those covers were as a favorite of this magnitude. In fact, when laying 7 or more points at home the 76ers are on a 1-3 ATS slide. Philly has a pair of bigger games on deck coming against Toronto and may look past this Bulls team. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-18-21 | Heat v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +1.5 over Miami Heat, 10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here who are rested and facing a Heat team coming off a big game against the Warriors last night AND have the Lakers looming on deck. Can you blame the Heat if they look past a Kings team that has lost four straight at home? Sacramento put together a four-game winning streak, prior to the 0-4 run, versus solid competition with wins against the Pelicans, Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers. A big reason the Kings have a losing record is their lack of defense, but Miami’s offensive numbers have been just as bad as the Kings defense. The Heat are 4-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Let’s not forget Miami was bad on the road a year ago too with a 14-19 SU record and a -2.7 margin of victory. We expect the Kings to get a solid home win here given the scheduling circumstances. |
|||||||
02-18-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 136.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
#763/764 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 136.5 Points – Rutgers @ Michigan, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Michigan just came back from a 3 week Covid stoppage and looked a bit rusty on offense. They shot just 41% in a 67-59 win @ Wisconsin over the weekend. The offense may take awhile to come around after the long break but we know the constant here will be their defense. They rank #1 in defensive efficiency in the Big 10 and #8 nationally. After holding the Badgers to 59 points on Saturday, they have now held half of their Big 10 opponents (5) to less than 60 points. That’s not great news for a Rutgers offense that is middle of the pack in offensive efficiency (7th in the Big 10) and averages only 65 PPG on the road this season. Rutgers defense is much better than their offense. They rank 12th nationally in defensive efficiency so we have 2 top 12 defenses in this game. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in tempo so we don’t expect an up and down game here. Neither team relies heavily on the 3-point shot with both ranking outside the top 200 with 29% (Michigan) and 26% (Rutgers) of their points coming from deep. That tells us the 3-point attempts will be limited here which favors the UNDER. On top of that, neither team gets to the FT line very often as they rank 13th & 12th in the conference in percentage of points coming from the stripe. So it looks like a lot of 2-point attempts in this game. Rutgers has gone UNDER the total in 4 of their last 5 games and Michigan has stayed below the total in 5 of their last 6. These 2 teams have met 8 times since Rutgers joined the Big 10 and only 2 of those games have topped 132 points. We like the UNDER here. |
|||||||
02-18-21 | Predators v. Blue Jackets -116 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line -115 over Nashville Predators at 7 PM ET - From a situational perspective, this one is a fantastic one in terms of how it sets up. The Blue Jackets began this season with back to back losses at Nashville and now finally are getting their shot at revenge. Columbus was a different team earlier this season as that was before the big trade with Winnipeg too. The Blue Jackets were clearly having some team chemistry issues that have improved since the deal with the Jets. After those back to back wins for the Predators to open the season, they have since won just 4 of 13 games! Also, the Preds enter this game off a loss and that is noteworthy because it followed a win and Nashville has yet to have a standalone loss this season. In other words, every time Nashville has had a loss it has begun a streak of at last two in a row. That pattern is very likely to continue here as the Predators have lost 5 of 6 road games this season and just had their most recent games against Dallas cancelled by weather issues. Now the Preds face a Blue Jackets team off back to back to back losses and this is the other side of the equation in terms of what is making a powerful situation. Columbus has gone a perfect 3-0 this season when they have entered a game off back to back losses. Their coach John Tortorella is a very demanding coach and you can bet he is on his team big after any loss but particularly back to back defeats. Sure enough the Jackets have responded each time when in this situation this season and the combined score has been 12 to 7 in those victories. Columbus has scored an average of 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Nashville has had one high-scoring road win this season but lost each of its other five away games and scored an average of only 1.6 goals per game in those defeats. Considering all of the above factors, look for a home ice blowout in this one. Take the BLUE JACKETS |
|||||||
02-17-21 | Wyoming -6 v. New Mexico | Top | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#705 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -6 over New Mexico, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - This was supposed to be a home game for the Lobos but because of the state of New Mexico’s Covid related restrictions, they are not able to play at home this season. Thus, they’ve been on the road for ALL of their 16 games this season. Their “home” games thus far have been played in Lubbock, TX, St George, UT, and now tonight’s game will be in Colorado Springs. Not surprisingly, the Lobos are 1-11 in conference play during their disrupted season. They have not played a game since January 30th and they had to completely cancel their series with San Diego State a few weeks ago because they had just 5 scholarship players available to play due to injuries and players recently opting out of the remainder of the season. Head coach Weir mentioned his team just started practicing again a few days ago and a number of walkons who were not traveling with the team earlier this year are now with the team and could be in the rotation. The Lobos hopped on a bus on Tuesday morning to make the long 6 hour trip to Air Force for their “home” game. We have a feeling this team has cashed it for the season in a situation that is as tough as any in the country. Offensively they have been terrible this season. They rank dead last in the MWC in efficiency, eFG%, 3-point FG%, 2-point FG% and FT%. Not a huge surprise with all of the adversity and distractions they’ve faced. Wyoming is just 4-8 in MWC play but they’ve played a very tough slate already facing San Diego State, Nevada, Colorado State, and Boise State (4 of the top 5 teams in the conference) all twice this season. While New Mexico has been terrible on offense, the Cowboys are averaging 75 PPG (Lobos average 63 PPG) and they rank in the top 90 nationally in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. Wyoming is coming in on a 4 game losing streak losing 2 vs San Diego State and Colorado State and now they take a HUGE step down in competition. While this is a “home” game for the Lobos, they have yet to play in Colorado Springs this season while Wyoming has played here twice already this year losing by 3 to Air Force and then following that up with a 19 point win the next night. We can’t imagine New Mexico even wants to be here with all that has gone on in their program and we look for Wyoming to roll in this game. |
|||||||
02-17-21 | Hawks +3 v. Celtics | Top | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - This game has some interesting movement on the spread as the line opened with Boston a larger favorite, got public support, and the line moved in the opposite direction. That’s a strange move consider the Hawks are just 2-8 SU their last ten games and have lost four straight. Granted we have lost a little value in this number, but the Hawks are the play here. In their last five games the Celtics have a 2-3 SU record with a negative differential of -1.2PPG. Boston’s offensive efficiency is down considerably in their last five games but they’re defensive efficiency numbers are good. In comparison, the Hawks have lost four of five, yet they have better OEFF numbers than the Celtics but worse DEFF. Atlanta has a plus/minus differential of minus -4.8PPG in this five game streak which isn’t far off this spread. The Hawks are 5-7 SU on the road this season but have a positive differential of +1.2PPG which is 13th best in the NBA. The Hawks are very good at defending the 3-point line (2nd best in the NBA) and negate the Celtics strength of 3-point shooting (6th). Boston is coming off a huge win last night over Denver and let down a little here. Bet the Hawks. |
|||||||
02-16-21 | Raptors v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 124-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are coming off a straight up loss as a double-digit favorite and we like them to bounce back here against the Raptors who beat them in the conference finals two years ago. Milwaukee is coming off a tough six game West coast road trip with three straight losses but now return home where they are 9-2 SU on the season. Milwaukee’s two losses at home this year came against the Lakers and Jazz who are arguably the two best teams in the league. The Bucks have the second-best overall point differential in the NBA at +8.1PPG, the highest NBA average at home at +13.5PPG. The Bucks last three home wins have come by 20, 28 and 14-points. The Raptors are playing their 7th road game in their last eight contests and have a 6-9 SU road record on the year. Toronto’s road differential is 13th in the league at +1.2PPG. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well and don’t defend it well but Milwaukee is the better overall shooting team at 49.2% compared to 45.1% for Toronto. Since 2018 the Bucks are 76-15 SU on their home floor with an average margin of victory of +13.2PPG. Lastly, earlier this season the Bucks were favored by -6.5-points at Toronto (in Miami) and now laying less here. |
|||||||
02-16-21 | Dayton v. Rhode Island -3 | Top | 89-91 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island -3 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Here we have a team that has a 9-12 overall record favored by a full 3 points over a team that has an 11-6 overall record. Hmmm… We like the home favorite here. Rhode Island is coming in off 4 straight losses and they are in desperate need of a win. It’s their home finale and we expect the Rams to play very well. The opener of that 4 games losing streak for URI was a 67-56 loss @ Dayton, tonight’s opponent. In that loss the Rams top player Fatts Russell (15 PPG) was battling an injury and played a season low 19 minutes and scored a season low 4 points. HE missed URI’s next game which was a 1-point home loss vs VCU, the A10’s 1st place team and 2nd highest rated team. The Rams also lost by 7 @ St Louis in their most recent game and were very competitive vs the top rated team in the conference. Russell was back in the line up and they are back at full strength. This team is better than their record. Prior to their 4 games losing streak this team was on a 6-3 run including a road win VCU and St Bonnies (3rd rated team in the A10). In their first meeting on January 30th, the Rams made just 38% of their shots and 23% of their 3’s with the best player banged up. The Flyers have played 5 road games this year and they are 2-3 in those contests with one win coming in OT and they other coming by 5 points vs a St Louis team that was playing their first game in over a month due to covid. After this one Dayton has three HUGE games on deck vs St Louis, St Bonnies and VCU, the 3 best teams in the conference. Having already beaten URI, we wouldn’t be surprised if they were peaking ahead at that stretch of games. Rhode Island is the better defensive team ranking 33rd nationally in efficiency and they send teams to the FT line fewer than any other team in the A10. Big home game for the Rams and we like them to get the win and cover. |
|||||||
02-15-21 | Heat +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +3.5 over LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The line on this game suggests Paul George won’t be in the lineup for the Clippers tonight and the Heat, who are nearly back to full strength, will take advantage. Miami has struggled to a 11-15 SU record but they’ve been hit harder by injuries to their starting lineup with Butler, Herro, Dragic and Bradley all missing extended time. Butler and Herro are back and the Heat have won 4 of their last five games. In their last five games the Heat have the best overall defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.029-points per possession. The Clippers have the best overall offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA which can largely be attributed to great 3-point shooting. We feel LA’s hot shooting must regress and is unsustainable for a long period of time. The Clippers are shooting over 42% from deep this season which is significantly better than the league average of 36.8%. Miami is allowing near league average in 3-point percentage shooting by opponents this season, but injuries have had an impact. Last year the Heat were the 5th best team in the NBA defending the 3-point line. The Clippers have won 7 of their last ten games but NONE of those have come against a team with a winning record. Miami is off a loss (34-16-1 ATS run off a loss) in Utah in their previous game while the Clippers have a HUGE two game set against the Jazz next. |
|||||||
02-15-21 | Islanders -121 v. Sabres | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders Money Line -120 over Buffalo Sabres at 7 PM ET - Just as it has greatly impacted other sports, the covid pandemic has also been impactful to the hockey world as well. In the NHL yesterday, we saw a Capitals team playing for the first time in over a week and they looked out of sorts as the Penguins took advantage in an eventual 6-3 win. The Avalanche were also playing for the first time in over a week and a half and they suffered a shutout loss at Vegas. The point is that both games Sunday involved teams off a long layoff and it didn't go well for either hockey club that was in that situation. Next up in that situation is a very difficult spot for Buffalo Monday. The Sabres haven't played a game in even longer - a span of two weeks between contests - and now they host an Islanders team that has not lost a game in regulation in over 2 weeks. Indeed New York is on a 6-game points streak and has won 3 of the last 4 games with the only loss in a shootout. Today is the 15th of February and this will be the first game that Buffalo has played this month. Not only that but the Sabres weren't exactly dominating on home ice either. Buffalo has lost 4 of 6 home games and one of their two wins came in the shootout. In summary, this match-up features an Islanders team playing its best hockey so far this season - they have found their stride - and taking on a Sabres team that has major issues with time off and conditioning issues for players and guys being stuck in quarantine. We are getting line value here because the Islanders are on the road and expected to start back-up goalie Ilya Sorokin. He has allowed a total of only 5 goals in regulation time of his last two starts and with how well his teammates have been playing that will be in front of him tonight coupled with the struggles for the Sabres skaters to return to game-ready form here, this one should turn into a road rout. Take the ISLANDERS |
|||||||
02-15-21 | East Tennessee State v. Chattanooga UNDER 134 | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
#845/846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga, Monday at 7 PM ET - These two met on February 6th and Chattanooga pulled the upset 67-65 putting up 132 total points. It was on pace for just 120 at halftime and with 10 minutes remaining in the game these two had put up just 82 total points. They put up a whopping 50 points in the final 10 minutes of the game, including 18 points in the last 2:30 of the game. They both eclipsed their season averages in offensive PPP and even after all of that it still went UNDER the total. These are 2 slow paced teams ranking 10th (ETSU) and 8th (Chattanooga) in tempo in Southern Conference play (10 team league). ETSU has gone UNDER the total in 6 of their last 7 games and if we throw out their games vs Citadel, Samford, and VMI (3 fastest paced teams in the league) they are averaging 131 total points and they’ve topped 134 points (tonight’s total) only twice in those 9 remaining games. Chattanooga has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games and they just put up 136 total points over the weekend vs the Citadel who is the fastest paced team in the league AND the worst defensive team in the conference. Now they have a rematch vs an ETSU defense that ranks 3rd in the league and just allowed 49 points to Wofford, one of the better offensive teams in the SOCON. We think this one will be a grinder with neither getting to 70 points. We like the UNDER |
|||||||
02-14-21 | Spurs v. Hornets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - These two teams have been playing at a faster rate lately but their offensive efficiency numbers haven’t been very good for the season. The Spurs are the 21st worst offensive efficiency team in the NBA while the Hornets are 18th. San Antonio is the 20th ranked shooting team in the league and 17th from beyond the arc. Charlotte doesn’t shoot it much better at 45.7% overall (18th) but do hit 38% of their 3’s which is top ten. San Antonio has a top ten defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.104-points per possession on the season. Charlotte is average in DEFF, ranking 16th at 1.118PPP. The Hornets have been much better at home defensively though with the 11th best DEFF and the Spurs in their last five games move up the rankings to the 5th best defensive efficiency number. The Hornets are on a 7-3-1 Under run at home as a dog while the Spurs on a 7-3 Under run when favored. Our computers project 223 total points here and we couldn’t agree more. |
|||||||
02-14-21 | Minnesota v. Maryland UNDER 138 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
#825/826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 138 Points – Minnesota @ Maryland, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These two met on January 23rd in Minneapolis and Maryland came away with a 63-49 win (112 total points). The Terps, the 2nd slowest tempo team in the Big 10, slowed the game down as they have done for much of the season. The two teams combined to take only 91 shots and made only 13 combined 3-pointers. We see a similar situation here with a low possession game. Neither team is great offensively as they rank 8th and 12th in the league in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. The Gophers are the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big 10 and Maryland ranks 7th in that category. The Terps offense has averaged only 61 PPG over their last 9 conference games and Minnesota on the road has put up just 64 PPG this season. Maryland’s offense has not topped 1.00 PPP in 6 consecutive games. Defensively they have held their last 9 Big 10 opponents to under their offensive PPP average. The Gophers have gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 10 games and Maryland has stayed UNDER in 4 of their last 5. We don’t see either team getting to 70 in this game and we’ll grab the UNDER. |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Blues v. Coyotes +104 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Coyotes Money Line +105 over St Louis Blues at 8 PM ET - The Blues won last night's game but the back to back situation favors the Coyotes. St Louis will likely go with back-up goalie Ville Husso here and he has struggled this season. While Arizona is also going with the back-up goalie here, Antti Raanta gets the call and he has been solid this season and long-term in his career. Significant edge between the pipes expected here as it is likely to be a battle of back-up goalies given the back to back situation. Prior to last night's loss, Arizona had won 3 straight meetings with St Louis this season. The quirky scheduling situation this season has been further impacted by health protocols with covid and that is why it seems like the Blues and Coyotes are constantly playing each other. Now, off their first loss in the last 4 meetings between the teams, the Coyotes get back on track with a big win tonight per our computer math model. Bounce back time here. Take the COYOTES |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Weber State +1 v. Montana | Top | 91-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State +1 over Montana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two played on Thursday night and Weber State lost 80-67 as a 1-point favorite @ Montana. That loss broke a 4 game winning streak for Weber and they are ready to get back at it on Saturday. The Wildcats come into this game ranked #2 in the Big Sky Conference in offensive efficiency and #3 in defensive efficiency. You wouldn’t have noticed that on Thursday as they allowed Montana to shoot over 50% and 1.18 PPP well above their season averages of 45% and 0.98 PPP. On the other end of the court Weber’s offense (which averages 50% from the field on the season) shot just 44% (only 21% from 3-point range) and averaged just 0.99 PPP. So we have the better team (11-5 overall / 6-3 in conference) that played below their normal expectation with a chance at quick revenge vs a team that exceeded their expectation. We like this situation. Montana has been in this spot a lot recently and failed miserably. In each of their last 3 second night of back to backs vs the same opponent, they won the first night and lost the 2nd night. Those 3 losses came at the hands of Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, and Portland State, all 3 ranked well below this Weber State team. The Wildcats have been solid after a subpar performance covering their last 4 games following a loss. Montana, as we mentioned, is the opposite going 0-5 ATS the game following a SU win. We expect Weber State to win this one so we’ll lay it on the road. |
|||||||
02-12-21 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | Top | 130-143 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans +3 @ Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - The bet here is New Orleans. If we look at the full season the Pelicans have the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA and in their last five games, they improve to 2nd overall. On the season the Mavs have the 15th best OEFF, or an average number by league standards. In their last five games though the Mavs have played better than average with the 4th best offensive efficiency numbers. The difference is the Pelicans improvement offensively in their last five games came against three teams that rank in the top 10 of the NBA in defensive efficiency. In comparison the Mavs played three games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in DEFF so their improvement shouldn’t come as a shock. Defensively Dallas has been far worse than New Orleans in their last five games as the Mavs are allowing 1.251-points per possession which is the second worst number in the NBA. Both teams are 4-1 SU their last five games but again, the Pels wins came against better overall competition AND they have a +9.6PPG differential compared to the Mavs negative or minus -3.4PPG. As a dog of +4.5 or less the Pelicans are 5-2 ATS this season and they’ve covered 4 straight as a Dog. As a favorite in that same price range the Mavs are just 4-6 ATS. It hasn’t been profitable to play the Mavericks at home in recent times as they sport a 5-16 ATS record at home in their last 21. |
|||||||
02-12-21 | St Bonaventure v. VCU -3 | Top | 64-67 | Push | 0 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
#866 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU -3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:00 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago with VCU traveling to St Bonnies as a 2-point underdog. Everything looked great for the Rams at halftime as they jumped out to a 15-point lead scoring 40 points in the first half. Then came the VCU collapse. After scoring 40 points in the first half, they scored only 14 points in the second half and their 15 point lead at the break turned into a 16 point loss. VCU has won 4 straight since that loss and needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. A win here and the Rams jump St Bonnies moving into first place in the Atlantic 10. Their defense has been lights out since that loss allowing 43, 62, 62, and 67 points over their last 4 games. The Rams are #2 in the A10 in defensive efficiency and #1 in defensive TO rate, blocked shots, and steals. At home this season they are averaging 78 PPG and allowing just 61 PPG. St Bonnies is a very solid team but they’ve played a very easy road schedule to date. The Bonnies are 3-2 SU on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Fordham (last ranked team in the conference) and Duquesne (9th ranked team in the conference). Their most recent road game was @ St Louis who didn’t play a game for nearly a month (off from Dec 23 through Jan 26) and the Billikens beat St Bonaventure 70-59. Despite their easy road slate they are averaging just 63 PPG away from home while allowing 62 PPG. The favorite has covered 5 straight in this series and last year when these two met @ VCU, the Rams rolled up a huge 91-63 win. While we don’t expect a blowout here, we do like VCU to cover this small number at home. |
|||||||
02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:35 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors and back the Celtics. This is a fill in game tonight and the Raptors are in a horrible scheduling situation with this being the backend of a second consecutive games. This will also be Toronto’s 5th game in just seven days. The Raptors played their starters extended minutes last night in their fast paced game against the Wizards and fatigue is going to be a factor. Boston has last night off and is coming off a pair of losses against two of the better teams in the West the Suns and Jazz so you can bet the C’s will be focused here. Boston is a perfect 3-0 ATS at home this season when coming off a SU loss. The Celtics have the 10th best home court point differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG and are 4-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Boston has covered 7 of the last nine meetings and our metrics have them winning this game by 10+ points. |
|||||||
02-11-21 | Purdue v. Minnesota -3.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 5 PM ET - The Gophers have one of the largest home/road dichotomies in college basketball. They are 0-6 on the road but a near perfect 12-1 at home. In their home games they have a +13 point differential and they are allowing opponents to hit just 38% of their shot attempts. All but one of their Big 10 home wins have come by double digits. The Gophs are just 2-5 their last 7 games and this is a huge game in regards to their NCAA tourney hopes. It’s pretty much a must win game for Minnesota. These 2 met a few weeks ago in West Lafayette and the Boilers were a 2.5 point favorite. They rolled to any easy 81-62 win scoring 1.29 PPP which drastically outperformed their Big 10 season average of 1.02 PPP. The Boilers were also +11 makes at the FT line and hit 53% of their three pointers. Basically everything went right for Purdue on offense but we don’t expect that to happen again on the road where they shoot just 42% and they have a -2 point differential. The Gophs have already beaten many of the Big 10’s best here at home and beating them handily. They topped Michigan here by 16, OSU by 17 and Iowa by 7. Purdue is just 3-5 SU this year on the road and we expect a huge effort from Minny in a must win game with 2 of their next 3 games coming on the road where they’ve struggled. Low line here in our opinion meaning Minnesota just has to win at home. Minny has covered 7 of their last 8 home games and we’ll lay the bucket with the Gophers. |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Hawks v. Mavs UNDER 233.5 | Top | 117-118 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 233.5 Atlanta Hawks vs. Dallas Mavericks, 7:35PM ET - We have to bet the value here and play Under. These two teams just met a week ago and the oddsmaker set a number of 223 on the game and now this game is a full 10-points higher. In the meeting last week these two teams scored 238 total points but both teams shot extremely well in that game and field goal attempts (+8 combined for the game) for both teams were above normal. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pace or tempo and Dallas is average in offensive efficiency. The Hawks are 11th in the league in OEFF but in their last five games they are 17th and their scoring is down 2PPG. The Hawks are on a 6-1 Under streak their last seven road games while Dallas is 7-3 to the Under this season against the East. |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Rutgers v. Iowa -6.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -6.5 over Rutgers, Wed at 7:30 PM ET - Great value on Iowa here. They are in a bit of a funk losing 4 of their last 5 but they are still a top notch team and we expect them to play very well at home in this one. The Hawkeyes were just favored by 5 at home last week vs Ohio State (a team we have rated in the top 5 nationally) and now they are laying only 6 (as of Tues evening) vs Rutgers (a team we have power rated 30th). Iowa was favored by 4 at Rutgers earlier this year (won 77-75) telling us this number should be higher. They were favored by 10.5 at home vs Indiana in late January and we have the Hoosiers and Rutgers rated nearly dead even. Not only that, we are getting a very good Iowa team that is now backed into a corner so to speak after a string of losses. None of those losses, with the exception of their home loss vs Indiana, were bad losses so to speak. The Hawkeyes lost @ Indiana in OT over the weekend in a game they led by 10 in the second half and still led with under 2:00 minutes remaining. The other 2 losses were at home by 4 vs a very good OSU team (Iowa led 10 in 2nd half) along with a 5 point setback at Illinois. The Scarlet Knights have won 4 straight but all 4 have come vs teams ranked in the lower half of the Big 10. On the road they’ve played only 1 team this season that currently ranks in the top 6 of the conference and that was a 12 point loss @ OSU. They thrive on getting extra possessions by turning teams over but Iowa is the #1 team in the conference at not turning the ball over. Iowa is the most efficient offensive team in the nationally averaging 1.25 PPP and hit almost 40% of their 3’s in conference play. They should get to the line a lot in this game as Rutgers tends to foul quite a bit and while the Knights rarely get to the line (last in the Big 10) when they do it’s not pretty (60% as a team). We like Iowa to get rolling offensively at home and win this one by double digits. |
|||||||
02-09-21 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 226.5 | Top | 101-130 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226.5 Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35 PM ET - These same two teams squared off Jan 30th with the two teams scoring 238 total points. Both teams attempted 91 and 92 field goals in that game which are above league average and more than each teams 87FGA average this season. With this being such a close turnaround meeting we expect both teams defenses to outperform the offenses. The Pelicans are one of the slower paced teams in the NBA (20th) and the RESTED home team so we expect them to dictate tempo. The Rockets are playing the second night of a back to back and 3rd in four nights so you can bet they aren’t interested in playing fast. The Rockets are the second most efficient defense in the NBA behind the Lakers and have held their last five opponents to 107.6PPG. The Pelicans have put up some impressive offensive numbers in their last three games but none of those defenses are as good as the one they’ll see tonight. Lastly, in the meeting on Jan 30th the oddsmakers set a Total of 223.5 on the game and it went well Over the number so why no adjustment here? Bet Under! |
|||||||
02-09-21 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Panthers | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Red Wings Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Florida Panthers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Panthers won their opening game this season in a big way by a 5-2 count. Since that big opening victory Florida has won 5 of 8 games and not a single Panthers win was by more than 1 goal. That said, the fact our computer math model is forecasting another very close game here is not surprising. The Panthers have taken 2 of 3 from the Red Wings this season but both wins were by just a single goal while the loss (Sunday) was by a 3-goal margin. That is why Detroit is a much smaller dog in this one on Tuesday in comparison with Sunday's game. That said, the value is with the +1.5 goals here. Despite their last 7 games featuring 3 against this hot Florida team and 2 each against last year's Stanley Cup Finalists - the Stars and Lightning - the Red Wings have only had 3 losses during that stretch by more than a single goal and this was a "murderers row" slate of games. In recent seasons Detroit goalie Thomas Greiss has dominated the Panthers. Look for the Red Wings netminder to continue to be a thorn in Florida's side on Tuesday. Grabbing the +1.5 goals with Detroit is the play here |
|||||||
02-09-21 | VCU v. Dayton +1.5 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dayton +1.5 over VCU, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - These two met on January 23rd and VCU dealt the Flyers their most embarrassing loss of the season winning 66-43. It was their worst defeat in 3 seasons and after the game Dayton head coach Anthony Grant mentioned his disappointment in how his team handled adversity during that contest. Dayton had a school record low 13 points at halftime and the Flyers made only 17 shots the entire game including just 3 three pointers. That wasn’t indicative of this Dayton offense as they rank 2nd in the Atlantic 10 in both 3-point FG% and 2-point FG%. It was simply a terrible performance and a bad spot for Dayton as they were facing a VCU team that blew a 15 point halftime lead and lost by 16 to St Bonnies just a few days earlier. They were ready to play off that loss and it showed. Now we’re getting Dayton as a home dog which we think is some solid value in this spot. They are playing well having won 3 of 4 since that loss @ VCU including wins over St Louis (the highest rated team in the A10) & Rhode Island. They are also at home now where they have won 25 of their last 27 games. The Flyers are shooting 50% overall at home this year and nearly 41% from beyond the arc. VCU is coming off a huge road win last week as they beat Rhode Island 63-62. URI’s best player, Fats Russell (14 PPG), didn’t play in the game and it still went to the wire. In fact, Rhode Island led late and a 3 pointer by VCU with 5 seconds remaining gave them 1-point lead. URI then drew a foul with 1 second left but missed the front end of the bonus giving VCU the 1-point win. It looks like the Rams will be at less than full strength in this game with two of their key reserves, Curry & Clark, both injured and possibly out. You can bet Dayton will be more than ready for this rematch and we expect a much better shooting performance giving them the outright home win in this one. |
|||||||
02-08-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - The situation is right for a Cavs cover here with the Suns coming off a big win over the Celtics and have a marquee game on deck against the Bucks. The Suns are 6-4 SU at home with a solid point differential of +6.2PPG but even at that number it’s still not enough to cover this spread. Three of the Suns home wins have come by less than 10-points. Cleveland comes into this game on a three-game losing streak, but the losses came against the Bucks twice and the Clippers who are easily two of the best teams in the NBA, and while the Suns are good, they are not on that level yet. The Cavs have the worst road point differential in the NBA but if you eliminate one horrible 38-point loss in Boston that number drops significantly to just -7PPG. Phoenix is in unfamiliar territory here as this big of a favorite as they’ve laid 7 or more points only two other times this season going 1-1 ATS. We expect a letdown by Phoenix here and a much better effort by the Cavs off several poor showings. Bet Cleveland. |
|||||||
02-08-21 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4.5 over Oklahoma State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This situation sets up very nicely for KU at home. The Jayhawks are coming off a double digit loss on Saturday @ West Virginia. They are a bit undervalued at home here because they have lost 5 of their last 7 games, however all 5 of those losses come on the road. The fact is, Kansas is much better at home where they are 8-1 this season and 42-2 their last 44 at Allen Fieldhouse. These two met in mid January and KU was favored by 3.5 @ Okie State and now laying right around that number in this game because of their recent 2-5 run. The Jayhawks lost the first meeting 75-70 and they were -11 FT attempts in that game and they were throwing up bricks from deep hitting only 23% of their 3 pointers. Even with that Kansas still led by 3 points with just over 1:00 minute remaining in that road loss. The Cowboys are in a rough spot for a tough road game. They played host to Texas on Saturday and won a thriller in double OT. Three of their four starters logged 40+ minutes on Saturday and they were without one of the better players Moncrieffe (foot) who averages 10 PPG & 5 RPG and he is questionable again on Monday. The Longhorns took OSU to double OT on the road despite making only 20 of their 79 shots (25%) and Texas was a ridiculously poor 5 of 35 from deep (14%). OSU scores 56% of their points inside the arc in Big 12 play but Kansas is #1 in the conference at 2-point defense allowing just 45% shooting by opponents. In the first match up the Cowboys only made 47% of their 2-point shots but were able to make up for it at the FT line in a tight game. This should be a tired team and they most likely won’t have as many calls go their way @ Allen Fieldhouse. While Kansas is down a notch from past years, they are still a very solid team and they’ve dominated this series at home going 23-4 SU their last 27 home meetings with OSU. Last year they were favored by 15 here vs the Cowboys and won by 25. Now we're getting the Jayhawks at just -4.5 a year later in a favorable situation. We like Kansas to cover. |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -100 | 60 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56 Points – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - These two teams met in the regular season here in Tampa and the total was the exact same number (56). The game went Under with KC winning 27-24. We can take a few situations from that game to project why we feel this game has a decent shot of going Over this time around. In that game the two teams combined for almost 1,000 yards which would normally equate to 67 total points based on the NFL average of 15 yards per point. So by scoring just 51 in the first game, the two teams averaged 19.6 yards per point which less efficient than the worst team in the NFL in that category, the Jets who averaged 18.4 yards per point. During the regular season, TB was #2 in the NFL in yards per point at 12.5 and KC was 12th at 14.1 so both drastically underperformed in their only meeting this year. Both teams averaged 7.5 yards per play or better in that game which only happened one other time this season. If we look at the games where both teams averaged at least 7.5 per play it’s happened 18 times since 2000 and those games had an average of 73 points scored. Not saying both teams will average those numbers again here, but they have shown they can do just that. Both teams had missed opportunities galore in that game. There were 3 turnovers inside their opponents 15 yard line and only 1 TD was scored in 5 red zone opportunities. That was an anomaly as both of these teams are very efficient in the red zone ranking 11th and 12th in red zone TD’s scored percentage. On top of that, neither defense has been good at stopping teams from scoring TD’s in the red zone with KC ranking dead last in the NFL (74% of opponents trips to the red zone ended in TD’s) and TB ranking 19th in that category (62% of opponents trips to the red zone ended in TD’s). That first meeting was very pass heavy with 91 pass attempts and just 33 rush attempts and we expect similar numbers here which would favor the Over. These two teams both average right around 30 PPG (KC at 29.6 & TB at 30.7) peaking right now. Tampa’s offense has scored at least 30 points in 6 straight games while KC’s offense put up 38 last week vs Buffalo and had 19 at half vs Cleveland a week earlier before Mahomes was injured in the 3rd and didn’t play the remainder of the game. One thing we will keep an eye on here is the weather. We are releasing this pick on Thursday and the current forecast in Tampa calls for potential rain, but light winds which is key. We think both teams have a solid shot to reach the 30’s here and we’ll grab the OVER. |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Boise State -3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 62-73 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
#821 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -3.5 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These two met on Friday night and Nevada pulled the upset beating Boise 74-72 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was just the 3rd loss of the year for the Broncos who now stand at 14-3 overall. This situation sets up very similarly to a situation Boise encountered just over a week ago. They were @ Colorado State who is rated right around 30 spots higher than this Nevada team and Boise lost the opener of a 2 game series as a 3-point favorite. They bounced back on the road 2 days later and took out CSU by 8 points. When the Broncos met this Nevada team on Friday night, they led nearly the entire game. They were up by 5 at half and Nevada took their FIRST lead of the 2nd half with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and went on to win by 2. The Wolfpack shot lights out for the game at 53% and still trailed nearly the entire way. It was Nevada’s 2nd highest shooting percentage of the entire year in MWC play (13 games). Can they pull that off again on Sunday? We highly doubt it as we expect Boise, who ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% defense, to clamp down on that end of the court after playing poorly on Friday. While the Broncos defense is one of the best in the MWC, their offense IS the best in the conference as they average 1.16 PPP in league play (1st in the conference). On Friday they were solid on that end of the court (1.07 PPP) but still well below their average. The Broncos also turned the ball over on nearly 20% of their possessions which is very unlike they as they rank 1st in the conference in that category as well coughing it up just on 15% of possessions. So in other words, Nevada played a great game while Boise underperformed in most of their stats and the game still went to the wire. The Broncos are 13-3 ATS the game following a SU loss dating back to last year and we fully expect a top notch performance on Sunday. Lay the small number with Boise State. |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Celtics v. Suns -3 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Boston Celtics, 2 PM ET - It would be interesting to flip these two teams into the other conference and see where they stand. As it is right now the Suns are a mid-to-lower playoff team in the West while Boston is considered a top 4 team in the East. Our metrics suggest the Suns would be regarded similarly as the Celtics currently are in the East and vice versa. The Suns are 5-2 SU as a home favorite this season with an average margin of victory of +9.4PPG. Three of the Suns losses this season have come against Denver twice and the Clippers who are two of the top four teams in the West along with the Lakers and Jazz. Boston is coming off a road win against the Clippers, but they were in a favorable scheduling situation as the Clippers were off a long East coast trip. Boston’s other road wins this season have come against teams that have a combined 56-79 SU record. The C’s rank 11th in offensive efficiency on the road but drop all the way to 18th in DEFF. Phoenix is 15th in OEFF at home but rank 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.055-points per possession on their home court. Boston is without a pair of starters here in Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart and don’t have enough depth to overcome those losses. Our computers have the Suns winning by 7 here. |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Raptors v. Hawks +5 | Top | 121-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The line move on this game is an indicator Trae Young will be in the lineup for the Hawks tonight and we like Atlanta as a home dog here. Let’s start there. Atlanta is coming off their worst shooting night of the season as they hit just 33% from the field versus the Jazz in a blowout loss. Our models like them to bounce back here against an average Toronto team coming off a big upset of the Nets last night. The Hawks schedule of late has been brutal with five games against five of the best teams in the NBA (Jazz, Lakers, Clippers, Nets and Bucks). Now they take a step down against a Raptors team that has the same record as they do at 10-12 SU. Toronto has a positive road differential of +.5PPG but they are just 4-7 SU away from home and they are 0-2 SU this season when playing without rest. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a home dog this season BUT those losses came against some of the league’s elite teams and Toronto is not on that level. Toronto is 2-3 ATS as a road chalk this year. Finally, consider this, the Lakers just played here and were -7-points and now the Raptors are laying a number near that? Bet the Atlanta Hawks in this one. |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 6.5 Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:00 PM ET - Below is our write-up from Thursday's easy winner on the over - game finished 7-3 - with some slight tweaks to update it for tonight's game. Both these clubs are struggling badly on the penalty kill. Both power plays, particularly the Maple Leafs, have been strong to start this season. Some special teams goals are likely tonight and we also should see plenty of scoring in 5 on 5 action as well. Vancouver has struggled to stop anyone this season other than a bad Ottawa club. In their games other than the 3 against the Senators, the Canucks have allowed an average of 4.7 goals per game! Vancouver will absolutely have their hands full here trying to contain a potent Maple Leafs team that blasted them for 7 goals Thursday and is fully capable of another strong performance on home ice here. Toronto has averaged a full 4 goals per game in its 8 wins this season. The key to the value here is the total at 6.5 goals and the fact that the Leafs have allowed 3 goals in regulation time of each of the last 4 games. Vancouver is fired up after getting shellacked at Montreal in back to back games and then hammered in the first game of this series too! The Canucks are very capable of scoring well - they just can't stop anyone is the problem! Looking at the Canucks last 10 games heading into this one, the average goals scored by Vancouver is a solid 4 goals a game. Per our computer math model, this one falls in the range of a 5-4, 4-3, or 5-3 type game. If you like goals, tune into the Scotiabank Arena tonight! Based on value and the situation - and the fact the markets have not yet adjusted to a total of 7 goals - still holding at 6.5 as of early morning, we like OVER here. |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - This is a tough match up for the Badgers. Defensively, they struggle to contain athletic, quick back courts and Illinois has just that. They have problems staying with penetrating guards and on top of that UW usually has an advantage inside with Reuvers and Potter but that won’t necessarily be the case here. Illinois has two very good big men in Cockburn and Bezhanishvili who open up the outside for one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (10th best in the country). Four of Illinois five losses have come vs teams that scored at least 80 points in their game. Wisconsin isn’t built to put up huge numbers offensively. In fact the Badgers have scored 80+ points in just 1 of their 12 Big 10 games (in regulation). They often win low scoring games and we’re not sure they can hold Illinois (8th most efficient offense in the country) in check here. So that means Wisconsin will have to keep up and we don’t think they can. Wisconsin has beaten the teams they are supposed to for the most part, however they’ve only played 2 teams ranked in the top 6 in the Big 10 and lost to both (Ohio State by 12 and Michigan by 23). The favorite is 19-7-1 ATS the last 27 meetings and this is simply a bad match up for Wisconsin. Lay the points. |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets -4.5 | Top | 123-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets win with offense and when the Big 3 of Kyrie, Harden and Durant are on the floor they’re nearly impossible to defend. In their last five games the Nets have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.252 points per possession and are averaging 129.4PPG. The concern for Brooklyn is their defense but they have the ability to turn it up against good teams. The Nets are allowing 1.136PPP on the season which ranks then 26th in the NBA but in their last eight games against winning teams that efficiency rating improves dramatically. In their last five games the Nets have a +8PPG point differential which is 5th best in the league. Toronto has struggled out of the gate this NBA season with a 9-12 SU, 8-13 ATS record. The Raptors are off two wins versus an Orlando team that is 8-14 SU and dealing with injuries so we’re not impressed. Making a line comparison we see the Raptors were just +4.5 points at Indiana who isn’t on the same level as this Brooklyn team. Brooklyn is 5-1 SU their last six games and on a 5-0 spread run at home with the wins coming by an average of +6PPG. Toronto has an offensive efficiency rating of 1.116PPG which ranks 18th in the NBA and they’ll have a tough time keeping pace with the Nets here. |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Predators +108 v. Panthers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nashville Predators Money Line +105 over Florida Panthers at 7:00 PM ET - The Predators rallied last night with two late goals and an eventual overtime victory at Florida. Of course the Panthers will be looking for payback here and many in the betting markets will likely be backing the home team here. However, Florida has issues and is fools gold in terms of their strong record. 4 of the Panthers 5 wins have come against the Blackhawks and Red Wings. Chicago and Detroit are two of the weaker teams in the NHL, the Wings in particular, and have combined for only 6 wins in 23 games this season. Nashville's schedule has been much tougher early this season than that of Florida's. The Predators have played 4 games already against the teams that met in the Stanley Cup Finals last year - Dallas and Tampa Bay. Nashville also has had 3 other games against Columbus and Carolina - both solid playoff teams from last year. All of this is not being properly factored into the equation here by the betting markets and there is value in the Preds here. Pekka Rinne relieved Juuse Saros in goal yesterday and stopped all 12 shots he faced and will likely get the start here. As for Florida, they used Sergei Bobrovsky last night so Chris Driedger likely gets the start here. Though he has played well early this season he also shut out Nashville last season and the Predators want payback here. Look for Nashville to build off the momentum of last night's exciting win and remember that this is a Preds team that has won 5 of 6 games this season when not facing the Stanley Cup finalists from last season. The scheduling factor is being overlooked by the markets here. Take the PREDATORS |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Maryland v. Penn State -2 | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
#860 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one sets up nicely for PSU coming off an embarrassing effort @ Wisconsin while Maryland won a barn burner at home vs Purdue. The Nittany Lions played the Badgers back to back and we could see the potential for a blowout after they beat UW on Saturday and then had to travel to Madison on Tuesday. PSU was stymied by Wisconsin’s defense holding the Nits to just 56 points which again we could see coming after the Badgers played very poor defensive vs them a few days earlier. Penn State is undervalued right now because of their overall & Big 10 record (6-8 & 3-7) but this team is solid. They’ve had a number of players miss games this season and they are now getting healthy over the last few weeks with Sessoms and Dread back in the line up. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and one of those losses was a 4-point setback @ Ohio State, who just might be the best team in the Big 10 right now. PSU led by 8 in the 2nd half of that game. They are 3-1 at home in Big 10 play with their only loss coming vs Illinois before Christmas. Maryland is off a thrilling 61-60 win over Purdue at home. It was a game the Terps led for a total of 5:00 minutes and won the game on 2 FT’s with 3 seconds remaining. Tough spot for them with a home game vs Ohio State on deck as well. Both rely heavily on the 3-point shot offensively and while PSU is decent at defending the arc (114th nationally & 5th in the Big 10), Maryland stinks in that regard (249th nationally & 11th in the Big 10). PSU plays much better offensively at home averaging 81 PPG while hitting almost 47% of their shots. They’ve also had some back luck in conference play this year with opponents hitting nearly 79% of their FT’s vs PSU in league play. That won’t happen here as the Terps make just 64% of their freebies in conference play. The home team has won 7 straight in this series and the host has also covered 5 of the last 6. |
|||||||
02-04-21 | Warriors +3 v. Mavs | Top | 147-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - It’s not a good spot for the Mavs who are off a game last night in Atlanta, playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Dallas will sit Porzingis here as he’s not ready for that type of workload and they don’t want to jeopardize a set back to his injuries. Porzingis is off a 24-point 11 rebound night in Atlanta last night. Golden State on the other hand is off a close loss a few nights ago but are rested here. The big difference between these two teams is 3-point shooting. The Mavs are the 30th ranked 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 32.7% and you don’t win in today’s NBA if you can’t shoot beyond the arc. The Warriors on the other hand shoot over 36% from deep which is 17th in the league. Granted the Warriors are without two of their “bigs” here in Looney and Wiseman, but the Mavs prefer the small ball lineup with Green at the five and the Mavs don’t have the personnel to take advantage. Dallas is 1-3 SU and ATS when playing without rest this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of 11PPG. Dallas is 0-5 ATS their last five at home, 0-4 ATS as a home favorite. Warriors have won seven of eight when playing against sub .500 teams this season and a road win here looks promising. |
|||||||
02-04-21 | Cincinnati v. Temple +2.5 | Top | 63-60 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +2.5 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Bearcats have had a long layoff having not played a game since January 10th. They had 6 straight games cancelled due to Covid within the program. Not only have they not played, they’ve practiced very little. In fact, their first 5 on 5 type practice in weeks was on Tuesday of this week. Head coach John Brannen also said his full roster will not be available for this game and he expects a few walk ons to log extended minutes in this game. So Cincy is laying points in this road tilt despite practicing just twice recently (Tues & Wed), without a full roster, and the chances of the players being in game shape is slim to none. On top of that, this simply isn’t the Cincinnati team of old as they were just 3-7 (1-4 in the AAC) when they had their extended break. Temple has been inconsistent but they’ve shown they have the ability to play very well at times. One of their key offensive players finally got into the line up in mid January as Butler transfer Khalif Battle has been able to play the last 4 games (11 PPG). Last week the Owls beat one of the top teams in the AAC here at home topping Tulsa 76-67. Tulsa was a 1.5 point favorite in that game and now Cincinnati is favored by 2.5? Tulsa is better than Cincinnati and beat the Bearcats on the road already this year. After their win vs Tulsa, the Owls laid an egg over the weekend losing at home to Tulane as an 8 point favorite. After that loss we expect Temple to play very well (third straight home game) before going on the road for 4 of their last 5. This is a big game for the Owls. Cincy is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (328th) so they need to score inside the arc to be effective. That’s where the Temple defense excels ranking 48th nationally at defending 2-point attempts, The Owls also rarely send teams to the FT line so the Bearcats will struggle to score here. The last 2 seasons these teams have met 3 times with the Bearcats winning all 3 very tight by margins of 1, 4, and 7 points and those games took place when Cincy was a better team than they are right now. We fully expect Temple to get the home win here. Take the points here. |
|||||||
02-03-21 | Mavs v. Hawks UNDER 224 | Top | 122-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 224 - Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - This game is not going to get to league average or 222 total points. Let’s start with 3-point shooting for both teams. The Mavs rank 30th in 3-point shooting at 32.8%, Atlanta is 23rd at 35.2%. The Mavs average 108.7PPG, the Hawks score 112.5PPG. Both rank in the bottom half of the NBA in overall FG percentage shooting. Dallas and their opponents have totaled less than 224 total points in four straight games and seven of their last ten. When we examine the Hawks' scores, we see they have not topped 224 total points in eight of their last ten games (if you eliminate OT’s). Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play so we can’t see these two teams turning this into a transition track meet. The Under has cashed 4 straight in this series and Hawks on 7-0 Under streak when coming off a spread loss. The bet here is UNDER. |
|||||||
02-03-21 | Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 137 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#715/716 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137 Points – Kentucky @ Missouri, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - While Kentucky is struggling with just a 5-10 overall record, their defense has been very solid all year. They are ranked 14th nationally in defensive efficiency and they have allowed less than 1.00 PPP in 5 of their last 6 games. In SEC play the Cats are giving up only 0.99 PPP. Offensively they’ve really had problems. They rank 11th in offensive efficiency, 12th in eFG%, and 14th (last) in 2-point FG% (in conference play). They have been held to 65 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. On the season UK is making only 41% of their shots and just 29% from 3. Mizzou is off back to back high scoring games vs TCU and Auburn but we think that changes here. In their most recent game over the weekend, they beat TCU 102-98 in OT where both teams went off hitting 56% of their shots overall, 46% of their 3-point shots, and they combined to make 34 FT’s. It was a fast paced game that was on pace and the 2 teams combined to score a ridiculous 60 points in the final 10 minutes of regulation. This one won’t be fast paced as UK is one of the slowest teams in the SEC and Mizzou is in the bottom half of tempo stats in league play. Both defenses rank ahead of the offenses in this one with Kentucky ranking 2nd in eFG% defense in SEC play and Missouri ranking 3rd. The offense rank 12th and 8th respectively in that category. Neither teams shoot many 3 pointers with both ranking 300th or lower nationally in percentage of points from beyond the arc. When they do shoot 3’s, they aren’t very good with the Cats hitting 29% of their shots from deep and Mizzou hits just 30%. This has been a low scoring series with 4 of the last 5 meetings landing on 134 or lower. UNDER is the play. |
|||||||
02-03-21 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Red Wings Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 5:35 PM ET - The Lightning, of course, are the better team here and they are the defending Stanley Cup Champions and they are huge favorites on the money line for a reason. But the Red Wings are very likely to be the more motivated team plus should get solid goal-tending here and we like the value available with the +1.5 goals on the puck line. Thomas Greiss will be between the pipes for Detroit and, in his 6 starts he has allowed a total of only 14 goals in regulation. He has been very consistent in his starts for the Red Wings and not allowed more than 3 goals in any of them. That average of 2.3 goals in regulation time of the 6 starts that Greiss has made is also a big reason that 4 of 6 losses have been by just a single goal and two of those were in overtime. Look for another 1-goal game here. Last season Tampa Bay was also a huge favorite in both games but both were 1-goal games and the Red Wings even got the outright upset in one of those games. Detroit has some guys on the quarantine list but they have already been playing without them and gotten adjusted to that and have still been ultra-competitive most games as you can see from all the tight losses they have had this season. The Tyler Bertuzzi injury hurts but the Red Wings just battled Florida to a 3-2 loss without him on Sunday. Tampa Bay is off a 5-2 win but they entered that game on a 2-1-1 run where each win was by a single goal. Look for another close game here early Wednesday evening. Grabbing the +1.5 goals (and getting a come back price too, currently in +110/115 range) with Detroit is the play here |
|||||||
02-02-21 | Clippers v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1.5 over LA Clippers, 7:35 PM ET - This is clearly a marquee game between two of Star ridden teams and we like the Nets at home in a win. The Clippers have won 10 of their last eleven games and are starting to look like the team that was supposed to win a Championship last season. But a closer look at this current streak doesn’t have us as excited as Clipper fans are. In their last ten wins the Clippers best win is over the Indiana Packers who are 11-9 SU on the season and not ONE of the other wins came against a team that is above .500 right now. The Clippers are one of the top teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency and have risen up the ranks in defensive efficiency (11th) lately because of the weak schedule. We like the fact Brooklyn comes into this game off an upset loss against a very motivated Wizards team and will look to get back on track here. The Nets have won 7 of their last ten games with one of those coming at home against the Bucks. James Harden sat out the other night but is expected back here giving the Nets their vaunted “Big 3” on the offensive end of the court which makes them extremely difficult to defend. The Clippers have some injury questions of their own with two starters (Batum, Beverley) potentially out again tonight. The bigger Stars rise to the occasion tonight and get a home win. |
|||||||
02-02-21 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 50-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* North Carolina -3.5 @ Clemson, 7 PM ET - Clemson has literally forgotten how to play defense as they’ve allowed 1.467, 1.327, 1.151 and 1.213 points per possession in four of their last five games. Those are all drastically higher than the D1 average of 1.018PPP. In the Tigers most recent game they gave up 79-points to a Duke team that ranks slightly higher in offensive efficiency in ACC play than this North Carolina team. The Tarheels are scoring 1.043 points per possession, 5th best in the conference. In comparison, Clemson is currently last in the ACC in offensive efficiency averaging less than .94PPP. Not only are the Tarheels better offensively but defensively it’s not close as Clemson is 3rd to last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, North Carolina is 6th. The Tarheels will own a decisive advantage on the boards with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country. North Carolina has played well of late with three straight wins and 6 of their last seven. We don’t think the trend of horrendous defense by Clemson is going to end anytime soon and will look to play against them here. |
|||||||
02-01-21 | Lakers v. Hawks +6 | Top | 107-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +6 over the LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - Don’t bet this game on the names of the front of the jerseys or the history of the franchises, bet this game on value in the number. Surprisingly, the Hawks rank 8th in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.126 points per possession which coincidentally is the exact same OEFF as the Lakers. The Hawks defensive efficiency rating is 10th best in the NBA at 1.096PPP. L.A. leads the league at 1.048PPP allowed per game. The Lakers average point differential is +7.7PPG but the Hawks aren’t far behind at +3PPG. So, looking at the overall numbers there really isn’t as big separator between these two teams as you might think. LA has been on the road for six straight games with a 2-4 SU record but the four wins haven’t been blowouts by any means at +1, +7, +11 and +7PPG. The Hawks have played well with a 6-4 SU record their last ten games and the losses came at Utah, at Portland, at Milwaukee and home in overtime versus the Nets. This line looks like a trap with the Lakers so let’s bet the team Vegas doesn’t want us to, the Hawks! |
|||||||
02-01-21 | Penguins v. Rangers +100 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Rangers Money Line -105 over Pittsburgh Penguins at 7 PM ET - Yes the Penguins have the much better record but they have been very fortunate early this season and the injuries continue to pile up for Pittsburgh early this season. All of their 5 wins have come by a single goal and 4 of those were after regulation and the one that was not was decided on a late goal with a minute and a half to go. The Penguins have 4 losses this season and 3 of those losses have come by a 3-goal margin. The point is that, thus far this season, Pittsburgh has shown they might get blown out but they have never shown that they will be on the right of a blowout. Now they face a Rangers team that has its sights set on revenge and that is a much better team than its record indicates. New York's last 5 losses all have come by a single goal margin and two of those were after regulation. The Rangers are facing Pittsburgh for the 4th time this season and so far have lost a game on the aforementioned late goal in regulation plus have a shootout loss and an overtime loss against these Penguins. After this game they don't face the Penguins for about 5 weeks and, suffice to say, New York is looking to get their payback tonight as they don't want to wait another month. The Rangers are outshooting opponents by 6 shots on goal per game while the Penguins are only a +1 in that department. Also, New York allowing only 3 goals per game this season while the Penguins are allowing 4 goals per game. The Rangers have been getting the better goaltending thus far this season and will make up for the crazy overtime loss to the Penguins on Saturday by responding with a big win here on Monday. Take the RANGERS. |
|||||||
02-01-21 | Murray State v. SE Missouri State UNDER 132.5 | Top | 77-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
#865/866 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132.5 points – Murray State @ SE Missouri State, Monday at 7 PM ET - SE Missouri State has struggled offensively as much as any team in the OVC. They reached 70 points in regulation just 1 time in the last 13 games. They are a slow paced team that doesn’t get many shot attempts as they have averaged just 52 shots per game over their last 10. Not only do they have limited shot attempts each game, they are very inefficient on offense on top of that. They rank 305th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Redhawks are also one of the worst FT shooting teams in the nation hitting only 64%. They’ll be facing a Murray State team that rates as the slowest tempo team in the OVC in conference play. The Murray defense has allowed an average of just 66 PPG on OVC play including holding Belmont, the #1 offensive efficiency team in the conference, to 72 & 68 points in their 2 meetings. When facing offenses ranked in the lower half of the OVC in efficiency Murray State allows just 61 PPG. SE Mizzou State ranks 9th in the league in offensive efficiency. The Racers are averaging 71 PPG in OVC play but against the top 3 ranked defensive efficiency teams at they have averaged only 60 PPG. SE Missouri State ranks 4th in the conference in defensive efficiency so we expect Murray State to struggle here. Like SEMO the Racers are also a poor FT shooting team hitting only 68% as a team. This will be a game with limited possessions and we look for both defenses to have the advantage here. SEMO has gone under the total in 6 of their last 7 and Murray State has stayed under in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER. |
|||||||
01-31-21 | Cavs v. Wolves UNDER 219 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - The Under is the play here with two of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the NBA. These two teams are literally 29th and 30th in the league in offensive efficiency averaging less than 1.05 points per possession. The Cavs are also 29th in the NBA in pace of play at 97 possessions per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. Minnesota plays fast and doesn’t play much defense but even with those two negatives their games have still averaged 224 total points per game this season. The games the Cavs have played in though have averaged just 213PPG. These are two poor shooting teams as the Cavaliers hit just 45% of their field goal attempts while the Wolves make just 43.5% of their shots which ranks them both in the bottom third of the league. Minnesota hasn’t cracked 100 points in 4 of their last seven games while Cleveland has scored 108 or less points in 7 of their last ten. We don’t see this game getting close to league average and will bet UNDER HERE. |
|||||||
01-31-21 | Northern Iowa v. Southern Illinois OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
#829/830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 138.5 Points – Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois, Sunday at 6 PM ET - These two played on Saturday and tallied 136 points with UNI winning 74-62. The game stayed under by a couple of points as the closing total was 138 at most spots. The two teams combined to make 50 of their 108 shots which isn’t bad at 46%. However, digging deeper we can see a lot of points were left off the board in this game. While they shot OK overall, their 3-point shooting numbers and FT numbers were horrible. The 2 teams combined to make only 11 of their 40 three point attempts (barely 25%) and from the charity stripe they combined to make 25 FT’s on 47 attempts (53%). Both teams drastically underperformed their season averages in those 2 categories as UNI hits 34% of their 3’s on the year and SIU hits 37% (49th nationally). From the stripe they hit 68% and 70% respectively. It’s not as if these teams are lock down defensively from the arc either as NIU ranks 312th nationally defending the 3 and SIU ranks 299th. It was simply an off shooting performance. Expect a much better offensive performance from these teams on Sunday as both defense rank at the very bottom of the Missouri Valley in most key categories. They are 9th & 10th in defensive efficiency (10 team league) and neither of the two rank above 8th in eFG% defense, 2-point % defense, or 3-point % defense. We look for this one to get into the mid 140’s on Sunday so take the OVER. |
|||||||
01-30-21 | Pistons v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 10 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Warriors here who are at home off a loss while Detroit is off a huge upset win of the Lakers. The Pistons are 1-7 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -6.5PPG. The Pistons have THE WORST defensive efficiency on the road this year 1.183PPP OR 119PPG. Detroit has lost three straight road games by 15, 8 and 6-points. Golden State has had their ups and downs, but they are still 7-4 SU at home with a plus +5.1PPG differential. The Warriors were just -8.5 and -9 points at home over the Timberwolves who are similar to this same Pistons team and Golden State won both by 22 and 12 points respectively. We like Golden State to bounce here off the loss to the Suns. |
|||||||
01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue UNDER 141 | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
#741/742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 141 Points – Minnesota @ Purdue, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We have 2 offenses in this game that have struggled in conference play. Purdue ranks 11th in the offensive efficiency with Minnesota ranking 10th in that category. These teams also rank 14th (last) and 11th in eFG% and 14th and 13th in 3 point percentage. The Gophers average 70 PPG in league play (7th) while Purdue averages 66 (11th). The Boilers are missing one of their top offensive performers as Sasha Stefanovic, who leads the Big 10 in 3 point shooting percentage, is out due to covid protocols. In their only game with out Stefanovic, Purdue scored 53 points at home vs Michigan last Friday. He’s a huge part of their offense and will be missed on Saturday. Minnesota has one of the largest home/road dichotomies on the nation. The Gophers average just 63 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they’ve topped 65 points just once and that was @ Iowa who ranks 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and ranks 68th nationally in tempo. When Minnesota played @ Wisconsin and @ Michigan, 2 of the slower paced teams in the conference similar to Purdue, the Gophs scored 59 and 57 points. On top of that, Minnesota is shooting just 31% on the road (25% from 3) and Purdue has allowed an average of just 64 PPG in their 7 homes games this year. The Boilers will make this a slow paced game and we don’t see either team getting into the 70’s. Take the UNDER. |
|||||||
01-30-21 | Flames v. Canadiens -120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Montreal -120 over Calgary, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The Canadiens hot start to the season is no fluke and Montreal offers great line value here as a small-priced home favorite. In 7 games this season the Habs have yet to lose in regulation as they have 5 wins, 1 shootout loss, 1 overtime loss. In their 7 games the Canadiens have averaged scoring 4.7 goals per game! Their 4-2 win over the Flames Thursday was not even as close as the final score looks as Montreal dominated and was up 4-0 before Calgary finally got a couple of goals in the third period which was too little too late. In the Canadiens last 6 games they have had only one truly bad game defensively. In the other 5 games, the Habs have conceded an average of only 1.8 goals per game. The Flames are winless in their two road games this season, have allowed an average of 3.7 goals per game in their last 3 games overall, and also have lost each of their last 6 meetings with the Canadiens. Per our computer math model that streak will reach 7 when the final horn sounds on this one. 10* MONTREAL |
|||||||
01-29-21 | Cavs -109 v. Knicks | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers over NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We like the spot to go against the Knicks here off a four-game west coast road trip and playing their first game back home. New York went 1-3 SU our west with their only win coming at Golden State. Cleveland seems to have found the right rotations and the new additions are paying immediate dividends. The Cavs have won 4 of their last six games with a pair of impressive wins over the Nets. Cleveland also has a home win over the Knicks in that stretch of games and that was without Prince or Allen. In their last five games the Cavs have the 4th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA while the Knicks are 23rd in that same stretch of games. Cleveland has faced the Lakers, Celtics and Nets twice in that five-game span. New York has the 22nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -3.6PPG. Lastly, when Vegas sets a number on a game that begs you to take a team….don’t! It looks like a trap to take the Knicks so bet Cleveland. |
|||||||
01-29-21 | Ohio v. Buffalo -1.5 | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -1.5 over Ohio, 7 PM ET - We are backing the home team Buffalo in this MAC showdown and expect a double-digit win by the home team. The Bulls stand 4-3 SU in conference play this season while Ohio U checks in at 5-4 SU. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency in MAC play with Ohio averaging 1.124 points per possession while Buffalo averages 1.09PPP. Defensively it’s not close as the Bulls have the best defensive efficiency rating in conference play at .982PPP allowed compared to the Bobcats who give up 1.114PPP which ranks second to last in the MAC. Ohio is 0-4 against the top four teams in the conference (Buffalo is 5th) and lost by an average of 11PPG in all four. Buffalo is on a 4-1 ATS run right now and has covered 5 of their last six conference games. The Bulls have also won 7 of the last ten meetings with the Bobcats. When Ohio has faced better competition, it hasn’t gone well for them with a 2-5 ATS their last seven against a team with a winning record. Lastly, Buffalo has a +11PPG differential at home this season and should have their way offensively against a Bobcats defense allowing over 80PPG on the road. |
|||||||
01-28-21 | Senators v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 6 Ottawa Senators @ Vancouver Canucks, 10:00 PM ET - Last night's game stayed just under the total but now tonight's total has moved from a 6.5 to a 6 and there is a lot of value here based on the goalie situation. For the Canucks, Demko played last night and saved 42 of 43 shots he faced! Now Holtby is likely to be back in net since this is a back to back and he has struggled badly early this season and is allowing about 4 goals per game. For the Senators, since Hogberg played last night, it is likely to be Murray between the pipes tonight and he has also allowed about 4 goals per game this season. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game set and both clubs have been firing plenty of rubber on net as the shots on goal have been 71 and then 78 in the first two games. So plenty of shots, some tired legs on defense, some glorious scoring chances, and a pair of goalies likely to struggle...it all adds up to a great spot to expect a very high-scoring game. Based on value and the situation, we like OVER here. |
|||||||
01-28-21 | Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5 | Top | 85-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -4.5 over Morehead State, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - These two met just a few weeks ago with Morehead winning 56-55 at home. Jacksonville State had a shot at the buzzer to pull off the road win but missed and came up just short. Jax State hit just 33% of their shot in that game and made only 6 of 23 from deep and still nearly won the game on the road. Now we’re getting great value in this revenge spot as Jacksonville State was favored by 3 @ Morehead State in that loss and now they are laying just 3.5 at home. Not only that, the Gamecocks were missing 2 key players in that game and still nearly won the game. Starting forward Kayne Henry and 6th man Amanze Ngumezi both issues that game and they’ve since come back and played very well. Ngumezi has scored 51 points in his 4 games since returning and Henry has put up 46 points in the same span. Morehead State is 8-2 in conference play but they’ve played on of the easiest slates thus far in the OVC and their last 3 wins have come vs the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Jax State has just one home loss this year and that was vs Belmont the best team in the OVC (16-1 overall / 10-0 in conference play) and that was a tight game with the Gamecocks trailing by just 2 points with under 3:00 remaining int eh game. It was a 7 point win over Belmont but Jacksonville State hung to the end despite an -18 made FT margin. The Gamecocks shoot 50% at home and have a point margin if +17 per game at home. Morehead State has a -6 PPG margin on the road this year and we like Jax State to get their revenge at home on Thursday night. |
|||||||
01-28-21 | Blazers v. Rockets -4 | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -4 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:35 PM ET - The Rockets looked impressive in their 19-point win over Washington the other night when they had their version of the Big 3 on the court with Wall, Oladipo and Cousins. Unfortunately, Portland doesn’t have their full complement of players healthy right now with McCollum and Nurkic out for an extended time while Hood and Covington are less than 100%. The Blazers have four road wins this season but two of those were against the Kings who are 6-10 on the season. Portland was bad on the road a year ago with a 14-24 SU record and an average loss margin of minus -4.2PPG. We can’t pull statistics from the Rockets previous games this season (with Harden) but we can project what this collective group of players can accomplish based on individual efficiency statistics. Houston beat the Blazers earlier this season by 2-points in OT in Portland with McCollum and Nurkic combining for 56 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists. It looks like a great time to buy low with Houston so we’ll back the Rockets here. |
|||||||
01-27-21 | Boise State v. Colorado State +2.5 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
#692 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +2.5 over Boise State, Wed at 9 PM ET - Wrong team is favored here according to our power ratings. Boise State sits at 9-0 in the MWC however they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. The Broncos have not played a single team ranked in the top 6 in the conference. All 9 of their wins have come vs the bottom 5 teams in the Mountain West. The 5 teams they’ve faced in the MWC rank 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th in conference defensive efficiency (MWC has 11 teams in the conference). The 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th in MWC offensive efficiency. Boise hasn’t faced a team ranked inside the top 180 since December 9th! CSU has an 8-2 conference record but they’ve had the much tougher slate. The Rams have already faced the 2 highest rated teams in the conference (San Diego St & Utah St) and split the 2 game series which each of those teams. On top of that, both of those 2 games series was on the road. Their most recent win they knocked off Utah State 84-76 on the road last Thursday after the Aggies entered the game winning 11 in a row. The Rams are happy to finally be at home where they are 6-0 this year but haven’t played here since January 9th. CSU is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 21st in the country in eFG% and 3-point FG% while also making 77% of their FT’s. They are even better at home making over 50% of their shots and hitting 45% of their shots from deep. The Rams take out Boise tonight. |
|||||||
01-27-21 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 219.5 | Top | 109-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219.5 Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat, 7:35 PM ET - We will start with tempo here as these two teams rank in the bottom half of the league when it comes to pace with Denver 26th and Miami 18th. The number on this game is set slightly below league average, yet we can’t see these two teams getting there based on pace of play. Miami has struggled offensively without Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro in the lineup which is a big reason why they are 24th in the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. In their last five games the Heat are averaging just 1.055 points per possession which is 2nd to last in the league. In that same five game span though the Heat have picked it up on the other end of the floor with the 12th best defensive efficiency rating. As we mentioned, Denver plays slow but they do make up for it with a highly efficient offense which can largely be attributed to Nikola Jokic who is nearly averaging a triple-double this season. But Jokic will have his hands full with defensive stopper Bam Adebayo and that will impact the overall efficiency of the entire Nuggets offense. Miami and their opponents have scored 220 or less points in 5 of their last six. If we eliminate over-time, Denver games have also totaled 220 or less in 5 of their last six games. Based on value, pace and Bam Adebayo we like Under here. |
|||||||
01-26-21 | Penguins v. Bruins -122 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Bruins over Pittsburgh Penguins, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET |
|||||||
01-26-21 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 131 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
#611/612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Mississippi State @ Tennessee, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Two of the slowest paced teams who are both struggling on offense calls for the UNDER here. Mississippi State ranks 312th in pace of play and the Volunteers come in at 306th in that category (out of 357 teams). Tennessee has been missing key offensive player (Springer) the last 2 games and they’ve scored 68 or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Starting PG Vescovi is also banged up with a bad hip but he’s been playing and scored just 10 total points the last 2 games (was averaging 10 PPG prior to last 2 games). The Vols now rank 10th in the SEC (conference play) in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. The Mississippi State offense has average 1.00 PPP or less in 5 of their last 7 games and now they face a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency allowing just 0.88 PPP. We expect both Tennessee & MSU to be held under 1.00 PPP which will make it very tough at a slow pace to reach this total. Both teams defenses rank above the offenses in conference efficiency which we like to look for when considering Unders. One thing that can kill under bets is if both teams end up getting to the FT line a lot. That shouldn’t be the case here as both defenses foul infrequently giving up just 15% and 17% of their opponents points at the line. So there shouldn’t be a ton of FT’s in this game and when they do get there neither team is great at the line with MSU shooting 63% and UT hitting 71%. We expect this one to be a grind it out, physical SEC match up. Under is the call. |
|||||||
01-26-21 | Western Michigan v. Ohio OVER 141 | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 141 Western Michigan @ Ohio U, 6PM ET Ohio U has scored 75+ points in seven straight games and has played in two straight that ended with 168 and 162 total points. In their last three games the Bobcats have scored 78 or better and that was against teams rated slightly better than Western in defensive efficiency. In fact, Ohio recently played Northern Illinois at home, who is comparable to Western in terms of pace, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and they combined for 149 total points. Ohio U is the second most efficient offense in the conference averaging 1.119-points per possession but they’re also the 2nd worst when it comes to defensive efficiency. Western has had trouble scoring points with an offensive efficiency rating in MAC play below 1-point per possession BUT they’ve faced the five best defensive teams in the conference in their last five games. Again, now they face Ohio who has one of the worst defenses in MAC play. WMU just played Akron and Vegas set a number of 138 on their game and the Zips are similar to Ohio U on offense but much better defensively. WMU and Akron finished with 147 total points. This one GOES OVER rather easily. |
|||||||
01-25-21 | Nuggets v. Mavs UNDER 223 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:35 PM ET - Denver is coming off a pair of overtime games against Phoenix and the last thing they want to do here is play a fast-paced up-and-down affair with the Mavs. That shouldn’t be a concern though as the Mavericks are the 21st slowest paced team in the NBA and prefer to play slow. Denver is also one of the slowest paced teams in the league ranking 26th at 97.6 possessions per game. If we eliminate the overtimes the Nuggets have played in three of their last ten games, we find they’ve combined with their opponents to scored less than 223 points in seven of those ten games. While we are on the subject of overtimes, these two teams met on Jan 7th and totaled 218-points prior to an OT period. Dallas is coming off a game against the Rockets in which they allowed 133 points on 55% shooting by Houston. The Mavs have the 12th best FG% defense in the NBA at 45.5%. Dallas also gives up the 10th fewest points in the league at 109.4PPG. Prior to the OT game between these two earlier this year these same two teams had not totaled more than 218 points in five straight meetings. The bet here is UNDER. |
|||||||
01-25-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Virginia | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Syracuse +6.5 over Virginia, 7PM ET Virginia is coming off a down to the wire win against Georgia Tech on Saturday, a game in which the Yellow Jackets led for most of the game. The Cavs were an 8.5-point home favorite in that game and recently a 9.5-point chalk against Notre Dame and those two teams aren’t as good as this Syracuse team. Virginia is just 1-2 ATS at home in conference action. The Cuse are off a pair of quality wins over Miami and Virginia Tech by 26 and 18-points respectively. In ACC play these two have similar overall efficiency numbers with Virginia first in offensive efficiency while Syracuse is 3rd. The Cavs check in with the 2nd ranked ACC defensive efficiency number while the Cuse are 5th. Points are a premium in this matchup of the 2/3 zone by Syracuse and the Pack-line D used by the Cavaliers which makes the dog that much more attractive. In the last two meetings (not including OT) these two have combined for 82 and 86 Total points. Grab the points with Syracuse. |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flames -106 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Calgary -105 over Toronto, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Flames have a big rest edge here as they haven't played since Monday. The Maple Leafs, on the other hand, haven't had more than 1 day off between games since the season started and have even played a back to back too. Also, even if Auston Matthews is back for this one, he is not 100% and Toronto also lost some veteran leadership with Joe Thornton getting hurt. The Leafs are off a win versus the Oilers but it was the 2nd straight game in which they were outhit plus Edmonton again had more blocked shots. It was a tie game at the midway point of the 3rd period before Toronto got a power play goal. The Flames, like the Oilers, can play some tough physical hockey and the Maple Leafs have only managed back to back wins once this season. Once again, look for Toronto to fall short when coming off a win and note that the rested Flames have yet to lose a game in regulation this season and are feeling very confident with their 2-0-1 start to the season. Calgary also has the home ice edge here plus won both match-ups with the Maple Leafs last season. More of the same here. 10* CALGARY |