Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-29-16 | BC v. Calgary -4 | Top | 41-44 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Our CFL best bet of the night is taking the Calgary Stampeders minus the points over the visiting British Columbia Lions. This is a quick rematch for these two division foes after BC beat the Stampeders earlier this season 20-18 as a +2.5-point underdog. Consider that number for a moment before we go any further. Calgary was laying -2.5-points on the ROAD in the first meeting and are now laying just -4.5-points at HOME in a REVENGE or MUST WIN situation if they want to win the division. Statistically the Stampeders have edges offensively as they rank 3rd overall in the league in points scored per game at 28.3PPG, they are 1st in sacks allowed, 2nd in rushing yards per attempt and 1st in turnovers which is especially key against this BC defense. Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 72% of his attempts and has 8 TD's to just 2 INT's on the season. As far as BC's offense goes they are below average in the league in most categories ranking 6th in PPG at 25.5PPG, 7th in yards per game and 8th in passing yards per game. Defensively Calgary is 2nd in the league overall in points allowed per game at 21.5PPG which is slightly behind the #1 ranked D of BC who allows just 18.3PPG. Sure the Lions defense allows the fewest yards per game at 339.2YPG but Calgary allows the 3rd fewest yards per game in the league at 403YPG. Calgary has dominated this series prior to the early season loss as they had won 5 straight in this rivalry by an average of 17PPG. We predict a 2 TD win by Calgary tonight. |
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07-28-16 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton UNDER 56 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
UNDER 55.5 Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Edmonton Eskimos - 8PM CT Thursday - We put our CFL expertise on the line tonight with an O/U wager on the Winnipeg versus Edmonton game which we feel stays UNDER the number by a wide margin. These two teams just meet on August 14th with Edmonton winning 20-16 in a game that stayed under a total of 55.5 points. That was the 4th 'UNDER' in the last five meetings between these two teams and the five games averaged just 39.4PPG. The Eskimos have the highest scoring offense in the CFL at 31.8PPG but two overtime games have slightly inflated those numbers. The Blue Bombers offense is second to last in the CFL by averaging just 19.6PPG and they have some quarterback issues which isn't going to help them produce points here. Edmonton has allowed the second most points per game this season in the league BUT they've played Ottawa, Saskatchewan and Hamilton who have 3 of the five best offenses in the league and two of those games went into overtime. The same can be said about Winnipeg who is allowing 27PPG (3rd worst) but they've played Edmonton (1st in PPG 'O'), Calgary twice (3rd 28.3PPG) and Hamilton (5th @ 27.4PPG) so the Blue Bombers defense isn't as bad as you might think. Edmonton may get caught looking past a last place Winnipeg team they recently beat as they have a bigger game on deck against Ottawa who leads the East Division. The value and bet here is UNDER the total of 55.5 points. |
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07-27-16 | Angels +102 v. Royals | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA Baseball Top Play 10* AL Game of the Year: Los Angeles Angels Money Line +100 @ Kansas City Royals @ 8:15 ET: After getting drilled 13-0 last night, the Royals certainly will be looking to bounce back tonight. However, Kansas City's track record in this type of situation shows the bounce back is not that likely! Since June 1st, the Royals are an ugly 0-8 when they are off of a game where they were held to 1 run or less. We are confident that "fade KC" streak goes to a perfect 9-0 here! The Angels Matt Shoemaker has been one of the top pitchers in the league since mid-May as the right-handed has compiled a 2.39 ERA in his last 12 starts! He doesn't have the wins to show for it but the way the Angels have been hitting lately he should have no problem getting the run support he needs here. The Angels have won 12 of their last 17 games and have 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. The Royals are an awful 6-15 in the month of July and have averaged only 2.4 runs per game in going 1-6 in their last 7 games. Danny Duffy toes the rubber for Kansas City tonight and the southpaw has a 6-1 record on the season but allowed 5 earned runs on 9 hits (including 2 homers) in one of his recent starts against the Angels. The way Los Angeles is swinging the bats right now - and with the Royals averaging only 7 hits per game in going 2-7 in their last 9 games - this is a classic case of "hot versus not" and the line value is big here. We'll grab one of the most consistent pitchers in MLB over the past 2+ months and we'll ride the road dog to victory for a big 10* Top Play here. |
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07-25-16 | Montreal v. Toronto -4 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
PLAY ON: TORONTO -4 over Montreal - 7:30PM ET - The Argos have a new stadium (BMO Field) and are eager to get a home win (0-2) this season for their home faithful. Toronto has a great opportunity on Monday night with a struggling Montreal Alouettes coming to town. Montreal has some internal issues going on within the club right now that stem from Nik Lewis, quarterback issues and several key injuries. The Alouettes are last in the CFL in scoring averaging just 14PPG and their starting QB's are throwing for less than 275 yards per game and 2 total passing TD's. Defensively they are allowing over 24PPG and were beaten twice this season by more than 14 points. Toronto has had problems closing out games as they are a negative -30 points to opponents in the 4th quarters of games this season. But expect them to find a way to get this one at home where they are desperate for a win. The Argos average 24PPG on the season with QB Ricky Ray completing over 70% of his attempts with 6 TD's to just 1 INT. Earlier this season the Argos hosted Hamilton and were 5-point favorites. Last week Montreal hosted that same Hamilton team and was a 2-point home dog. Now Toronto is laying the same number they were against Hamilton who is a far superior team. Lay the points with the Toronto Argonauts on Monday night. |
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07-20-16 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
10* TOP OVER 8.5 or 9 in NY Yankees vs Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - After opening up a 9.5 this line has dropped down to not only a 9 but even quite a few books are now showing with 8.5 as of Noon ET. This line move is offering fantastic value for the over. The Yankees will have Michael Pineda toeing the rubber this evening and he has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Pineda gave up 3 homers in his most recent start and his recent history against the Orioles does not bode well for today. In his last 3 starts versus Baltimore, the Yankees right-hander has given up 13 earned runs on 21 hits in the 14 innings over these three outings. The O's pitching outlook for today is no better as they have Yovani Gallardo getting the start. He has a 2.21 WHIP in his last 3 starts as both walks and too many hits allowed have had him trying to constantly pitch out of jams. Gallardo has a 7.39 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. He has a 5.60 ERA and has allowed 3 homers in his 3 career starts against the Yankees. Gallardo's most recent road start stayed under (despite him struggling as usual) but 4 of his 5 prior road starts resulted in an over. As a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 this season, the over has gone 10-4 in Baltimore games. We expect another "wild one" here with Gallardo on the mound on the road and the O's as a big dog. The over is 24-14 in Orioles games against teams with a winning record this season. We'll grab the over in the NY Yankees game in evening action Wednesday for a TOP play. |
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07-08-16 | Saskatchewan +11 v. Edmonton | Top | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
Grab the points with the Saskatchewan Roughriders over the Edmonton Eskimos on Friday evening. This is a BIG game for both teams as the current Saskatchewan (SSK from here on out...) head coach Chris Jones, and his entire staff, lead the Eskimos to a Grey Cup Championship last season but bolted to SSK this year. Just weeks after winning the Grey Cup last year, Jones asked for more power in Edmonton and they wouldn't give it to him so he left for SSK. This staff knows the Edmonton roster better than anyone and Jones is a mastermind coach that will know exactly how to exploit the Eskimos weaknesses. Ironically, Edmonton had one of, if not the best defenses in the CFL last year but in their opener they gave up 45 points to Ottawa and were outgained by 148 yards. More support in our theory is the turnaround of the Roughriders defense (under Jones staff) that allowed just 252 total yards in their opener after allowing more points than any other team in the league last season. Offensively, the Roughriders were very good last year ranking 1st overall in passing yards, 2nd in TD passes, 2nd in average time of possession per game and 1st in rushing yards. SSK lost their opener against Toronto by 13-points but the final score is not a good indication of the actual game as the Roughriders had 13 more first downs, +13 minute TOP and were +137 total yards. The difference in that game was two critical fumbles, one of which was returned for a TD. Last season Edmonton was 9 and 10-point favorites over Saskatchewan and won both games by 11 and 25 points but the coaching change is a dramatic one and the line has clearly not been adjusted. Value lies with the Roughriders and the points!!! |
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07-07-16 | Padres v. Dodgers -126 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line -125 vs San Diego Padres @ 10:10 ET Thursday - Even though Drew Pomeranz has pitched well for the Padres this season, he is 0-3 all time against the Dodgers. Additionally, San Diego is 0-7 this season in road games with a total set at 7 or less by the odds makers. The Dodgers will have Hyun-Jin Ryu toeing the rubber this evening and he is 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his career starts against San Diego. Ryu recently threw the ball very well in his rehabilitation and is ready to go tonight in his first MLB start since the fall of '14. Los Angeles is 17-8 in games with a total set at 7 or less by the odds makers this season. San Diego is off of a win last night but had lost 5 of their 8 games prior to yesterday's victory. The Dodgers are off of back to back losses but previously had gotten the W in 7 of their 8 prior games. The Dodgers also had won 18 of their last 21 home games before these back to back losses at Dodger Stadium. Since May 1st the Dodgers have never lost more than two consecutive home games and based on the perfect angles that are favoring the Dodgers and going against the Padres here, this play is a Top Play for us tonight. We'll take the value with the small home fave Dodgers for a TOP PLAY on the money line Thursday night. |
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07-07-16 | Toronto v. BC -7 | Top | 25-14 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Play on: BC Lions (-7) over Toronto Argonauts - 6PM CT Thursday - One of the big stories in the CFL thus far is the emergence of the BC Lions and their 2-0 start after a 7-11 record last season. BC has been outstanding on the defensive side of the football by allowing just 10.5PPG to start the season and less than 291 total yards per game of offense to opponents. To give you a better understanding of how good those numbers are, the next best points allowed per game in the CFL is 21PPG. Offensively the Lions are 1st in the league in time of possession (of the teams that have played 2 games - Saskatchewan has played one) and 2nd overall in rushing yards per game. BC will go up against a Toronto defense that is 3rd worst at stopping the run and is allowing 29.5PPG. We have one common foe between these two teams this season and that's Hamilton who Toronto lost to 20-42 and was outgained by 83 yards, while the Lions beat Hamilton 28-3, outgaining them by 58 yards. BC has won 9 of the last eleven meetings between these two clubs on this field and considering how well they are playing right now we expect a double-digit victory here. Lay the points with the BC Lions. |
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07-01-16 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -10.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: CALGARY STAMPEDERS (-10.5) over Winnipeg Blue Bombers - 10PM ET Friday night - Our CFL pick on Friday is with the Calgary Stampeders minus the double-digits over Winnipeg Blue Bombers. We have the opportunity here to play a very good team, maybe the best in the league, against one of the worst with the better team coming off an upset loss in Week 1. Calgary lost their opener to B.C. 18-20 and didn't really do anything well on either sides of the football. We expect a MUCH better showing at home this week from the team we feel is the 2nd best in the league. Calgary was 14-4 last year in the regular season and put up the second most points in the league at 27PPG . Defensively they allowed just 346 total points in the regular season (2nd in CFL) or 19PPG. You can see their average overall differential during the regular season was 8PPG but that number improved to +14PPG at home where they were 9-1 SU on the season. Winnipeg is also off a loss in Week 1 but we don't expect a bounce back here by one of the worst teams in the league. The Blue Bombers were 5-13 SU last year and have a current 4 game losing streak dating back to last season and are just 1-7 SU their last eight games. Winnipeg lost in the opener to Montreal who was just beaten badly last night by an Ottawa team that we rate slightly lower than Calgary. The Stampeders have beaten this Blue Bomber team 13 of the last fourteen meetings and with a tough game on deck against Ottawa they can't afford an 0-2 start to the season. Expect a 14+ point win by Calgary here. |
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07-01-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8 (or 8.5) runs in Arizona vs San Francisco @ 9:40 ET Friday - The Giants are off of a big 12-6 win at Oakland last night. The over is now 7-2-1 in San Francisco's last 10 games. Arizona was off yesterday but lost 9-8 to the Phillies the prior day. That was the Diamondbacks 5th over in their last 7 games. The Dbacks have averaged 12.6 hits per game during this hot streak at the plate while San Fran comes into this game having averaged 12.1 hits and 6.9 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 5-1 this season in Arizona games when they were off the prior day. The Diamondbacks are facing Johnny Cueto who has great numbers this season for the Giants but gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start. The Giants right-hander has fared well in his two starts against the Dbacks this season but certainly has not been unhittable. In fact, he's given up 16 hits in 14 innings versus Arizona this season. Toeing the rubber for the Diamondbacks is Shelby Miller and he is winless in his 6 home starts this season. Overall on the season Miller has compiled a 6.79 ERA and he has been hit very hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. Miller has faced the Giants twice this season and he has given up 8 hits and 7 walks in less than 8 innings of work. He's been in and out of trouble throughout those two starts against San Francisco and we expect him to remain in trouble throughout this outing tonight against a red hot Giants lineup. As a road fave in a range of -150 to -175, San Francisco is on a 53-28 run to the over. We'll take the OVER in Arizona for a TOP PLAY Friday night. |
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06-30-16 | Ottawa v. Montreal | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
ASA CFL PICK THURSDAY, JUNE 30TH - PLAY ON: OTTAWA REDBLACKS (-1) over @ Montreal Alouettes, 6PM CT - We are going to follow the smart money today and side with the Ottawa Redblacks as our 'play on' team Thursday in the CFL. There are a couple negatives that go against Ottawa but overall there aren't enough to negate a bet on them here. Scheduling is a concern as they have the shorter turnaround than Montreal for this game and they are coming off a big win over Edmonton who they lost to in the Championship game a year ago. BUT they are a far superior team than the Alouettes and they still warrant a wager tonight. Ottawa put up a whopping 590 yards of offense last week and 45-points against an Edmonton team that allowed the least amount of points last year (18.1PPG) and were one of the best in the CFL overall defensively. The Redblacks were 4th in total points scored a year ago and 1st overall in total passing yards. Montreal was average or below in most defensive categories but benefitted from turnovers which improved their overall numbers. If they don't force turnovers here, they don't have an offense (last in passing yards in 2015 and 2nd to last in points scored) capable of trading points with Ottawa. Montreal (6-12 SU last year) beat Winnipeg (5-13 SU LY) last week 22-14 and barely outgained them which isn't saying much. Ottawa was 12-6 SU last year and lost in the Championship game and are favored by just a point in this matchup. In comparison, Calgary (14-4 SU LY) who is similar to Ottawa is a 10-point favorite at home over Winnipeg (same caliber team as Montreal) this week. We are getting a ton of value with a Redblacks team that finished last season 4-1 SU and ATS on the road. Not to mention this Montreal team was just 3-6 SU at home last year. Take the visitor and much better team in this game. OTTAWA! |
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06-28-16 | Orioles v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8.5 runs in San Diego vs Baltimore @ 10:10 ET Tuesday - Both starting pitchers in tonight's match-up are having rough seasons. We are getting line value here because the game is being played in a pitcher-friendly venue in San Diego. The fact is that the Padres are 23-16 to the over at home this season but Petco Field, of course, is still "graded" as a pitcher-friendly park. That is why two struggling pitchers can match-up and yet a total of only 8.5 is offered on the game. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles and he is 4-7 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP year to date. Erik Johnson gets the start for the Padres and he is 0-5 with an 8.54 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP this season. Jimenez has particularly struggled on the road this season where he is 0-5 with a 10.12 ERA while Johnson has struggled seemingly no matter where he is throwing and who he is facing, as you can see from those numbers. Neither team was in action yesterday and the over is 5-2 in San Diego games this season when they were off the prior day. The over is 10-5 this season when Baltimore enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more and the Orioles enter this series on a 5-game winning streak. The Padres are off of back to back 3-0 games (one a win, one a loss) but they previously had gone 8-1 to the over in their 9 prior games. The lone under during that stretch was when these pitchers squared off in Baltimore last week. That was a 7-2 final though and now each lineup is getting a quick second look at a pitcher they just faced less than a week ago. We expect this game to reach double digits in runs as the hitters hold the upper hand in the rematch. We expect the Padres to add another over to their 5-1 mark to the over in inter-league action thus far this season. We'll take the OVER in San Diego for a TOP PLAY on Tuesday. |
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06-24-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 11 or 11.5 runs in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET Friday - The Rockies faced the Diamondbacks in early May and got to Archie Bradley for 4 earned runs in his 6 innings on the mound. Now that they are getting 2nd look at him and it is with favorable weather conditions for the batters at hitter-friendly Coors Field, we expect Colorado to hit Bradley much harder in the rematch. The Dbacks right-hander is off of a strong start but that came against struggling Philadelphia. In his two prior starts Bradley gave up a combined 5 home runs! Colorado will have Tyler Anderson toeing the rubber tonight and the southpaw will be facing an Arizona team that is the #1 slugging team in the league against left-handed pitching this season with a .488 slugging percentage so far this year. Anderson has been successful in the two starts he has made this season but the left-hander has yet to face a lineup that has pounded lefties like the Diamondbacks have this season. With yesterday's 7-6 loss, Rockies games have recorded 3 straight overs. The over is 11-6 in Colorado home games with a total set at 11 or 11.5 runs this season. The over is 19-11 this season in Arizona's games against teams with a losing record. With two unproven hurlers on the mound, and the Rockies bullpen struggling at home all season long, we expect another Coors Field slug-fest tonight. We'll take the OVER in Colorado for a TOP PLAY on Friday. |
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06-18-16 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY (IL Total of the Year) ON 10* UNDER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET Saturday - The Astros Dallas Keuchel has had a rough start to this season but he's still had a number of solid outings at home (where he dominated last season) and he also got burned in his last start when poor play on defense let the wheels come off of in a big inning that never should have happened. We expect the tough southpaw, who threw very well in his most recent start, to completely shut down a Reds team that has no experience against him. Keuchel has made 5 starts at home this season and 3 of those were quality starts where he pitched 6 innings of more and allowed 3 runs or less. Last season the Astros ace left-hander went 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA in his 18 home starts. Cincinnati has struggled against left-handed starters this season as they have averaged scoring only 3.8 runs per game in those match-ups. They will be fortunate to score anything today off Keuchel as he resumes his home dominance. The Astros hitters will also be facing a southpaw hurler today and that's bad news for Houston as they have hit just .233 this season against left-hand pitching. That ranks them near the bottom of the league as only the Orioles have fared worse than Houston in the AL when it comes to batting average versus lefties. We look for the Astros to struggle against a big left-hander that will be making his MLB debut today. The 6-5/225 southpaw Cody Reed has been toiling in the minors thus far but it was for strategic reasons that the Reds were holding off until mid-June to bring him up. Reed has absolutely been ready and Cincy is excited for him to make his debut today. He had a solid spring training with the Reds and at AAA Louisville with a 6-3 record and 3.20 ERA. Reed has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning and he has also done a great job of keeping the ball down in the zone as he's recorded nearly twice as many ground ball outs as outs through the air. The Astros are known for being free-swingers and they are also known for struggling against lefties. As a result, look for Reed to keep Houston off-balance throughout this game and that turns this game into a pitchers' duel with Keuchel. The under is a perfect 9-0 in Houston's last 9 games. The under is also a perfect 4-0 in Keuchel's last 4 starts. We'll gladly test the double perfect angles we have for this game. We'll grab the UNDER for a Top Play (IL Total of the Year) in the Houston Astros game Saturday afternoon. |
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06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 208 | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 32 m | Show |
We are going to play UNDER in Game #6 when the Cavs host the Warriors on Thursday night. Numbers, statistics and handicapping are all connected and based on averages. When teams or players shoot exceptionally well or poorly it tips the scales one way or the other. In Game #5 the Cavaliers, namely LeBron and Kyrie Irving shot the lights out and it led to a 112 point outing for the Cavs. Overall, Cleveland shot 53% as a team which is higher than their season average of 46.2% with LBJ and Kyrie combining for 33 makes on 54 attempts. On the flip side the Warriors got 52 points from Klay Thompson and Steph Curry on 19 of 41 shooting which is 'normal' but the rest of the Warriors were just 13 of 46 from the field. It's highly unlikely Irving shoots 59% again in Game #6 and very doubtful a poor shooting LeBron (just 42% from 16 feet or greater, 32% from 3-point line) hits as many jump shots as he did in the last game. Not to mention the Warriors get their best defender back, and one of the best overall defenders in the entire NBA, for this game in Draymond Green. The 'under' is 3-1-1 in this series and the games have averaged 201PPG. For this game to go 'over' the number the two teams need to combine for 52 points per quarter. In the 20 quarters played in this series thus far, 14 have totaled 52 or less points. We expect both defenses to step up again and predict a very physical game on both ends by each team. The bet here is UNDER. |
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06-15-16 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:10 ET Wednesday - The Mariners Nate Karns has been struggling with his command (5 walks in each of his last two starts) and now makes his first ever start against his former team. Facing the Rays will likely put even more pressure on Karns and that could result in even more issues with control. Karns gave up 7 earned runs in just 4 innings in his most recent road start. Tampa Bay will have Drew Smyly toeing the rubber at Tropicana Field this evening. The Rays southpaw is also struggling. Smyly is winless in his last 3 starts while compiling a 10.20 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in these three outings. In Smyly's two most recent starts against the Mariners, the lefty has given up 9 earned runs on 16 hits in a total of 9 innings on the mound. The Mariners scored 7 runs in yesterday's loss at Tampa and the over is now 14-5-1 in Seattle's last 20 games. The over is 20-13 in Seattle's games against teams with a losing record so far this season. The Rays and M's will be playing their 5th match-up so far this season and none of the first four have stayed under the total. The Rays have won 8 of their last 10 games and averaged 5 runs per game during this strong stretch. Based on tonight's pitching match-up, a result tonight similar to last night's 8-7 battle is what we're forecasting here. We'll grab the OVER for a Top Play in the Tampa Bay Rays game Wednesday evening. |
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06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Golden State (-6) over Cleveland Cavaliers - 8PM CT Monday - We will play on Golden State minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game #5 on Monday. First of all, the suspension of Draymond Green is a complete and utter joke and I understand the 'point system' the NBA has in place and Green exceeded the technical foul number BUT really? Ask yourself this, had the roles been reversed and it was LeBron instead of Green in that situation would the NBA have given him a post game technical and suspended LBJ? No chance! Will the Warriors miss Green tonight? Yes, but not as much as you might think. Green did grab 12 boards in the last game but was just 2 of 9 from the field and is on an 0-8 run from beyond the arc. This is a deep team and they've had players step up every time they've faced adversity in the past two years so I think they overcome that loss. The oddsmakers adjusted this number but smart money continues to flow in on the Warriors even after it was announced Green was out. Golden State shot under 41% in the last game but still beat the Cavs in Cleveland by 9-points. In the first two games of the series the Warriors shot 49.4% and 54.3% at home and won in blowout fashion. GST was the best shooting team in the league at home this season, the most efficient offense at home and had the largest average point differential on their own floor. Golden State is 50-3 SU at home and have a 127-22 record here the past three full seasons. Lay the points with the Warriors. |
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06-11-16 | Rangers +145 v. Mariners | Top | 2-1 | Win | 145 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers Money Line +145 @ Seattle Mariners @ 10:10 ET Saturday - Huge line move on the Mariners here and that has opened up excellent line value for Texas. Colby Lewis of the Rangers is a perfect 5-0 on the season and, has typically been the case for him, he is a much better hurler on the road than he is at home in hitter-friendly Texas. Look for Lewis to take advantage of pitcher-friendly Safeco Field and add to a road record of 3-0 that features a sparkling 1.41 ERA and 0.91 WHIP! Though the Rangers are off of a loss, that actually strengthens this play! Texas hasn't lost back to back games since mid-May. The Rangers are a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they are off of a loss. Seattle will have James Paxton on the mound. The southpaw, as a starter, shows a 3.72 ERA to the betting markets but he has a 1.76 WHIP in his two starts this season. He now faces a Rangers team that has produced 19 base runners (15 hits and 4 walks) in their last 7 innings against him. Those two starts came last season and Paxton is likely to struggle again in this one. The Rangers are 10-3 in their last 13 games and have averaged 5.6 runs per game during this stretch. The Rangers have won 8 of their 9 Saturday games this season and are 21-12 in divisional games. The Mariners are 15-17 in divisional games and have been a money-killing 8-16 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. That 8-16 record has resulted in -$14,900 in losses at $1,000 per game. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, we expect Seattle to drop to 8-16 the past three seasons. We'll take underdog Texas with the value on the money line Saturday. |
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06-10-16 | Warriors +2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Golden State Warriors + over Cleveland Cavaliers - Friday 8PM CT - We were on the Cavs in Game #3 and they rewarded us with a blowout win over Golden State but tonight we 'zag' and take the Warriors who are basically in the same situation that the Cavs were going into Game #3. We have a great team, off an embarrassing blowout loss and in need of a win. Golden State was really outplayed in the last game and didn't match the Cavs physical play, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Cleveland was 10th in the league during the regular season in defensive efficiency rating so I doubt we'll see a repeat performance tonight on that end of the floor for them. Not to mention the Cavs field goal percentage defense was 14th in the NBA (barely above average) as they allowed 45% shooting by foes during the regular season. Golden State had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #3 as Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green hit just 12 of 34 from the field and the team as a whole shot just 42.1%. Now consider this, the Warriors have played 102 games this season and they shot below 42.1% just fifteen times so the odds favor a much better shooting night in Game #4. On the flip side, the Cavs shot it extremely well in Game #3 at 52.7% which was considerably higher than their season average of 46.1%. And the Warriors FG% defense was 2nd best in the league so expect a better effort from them on that end of the floor too. The Warriors are 13-1 SU off a loss this year (27-7 SU last 2 years) and have been underdogs just 6 times this season and they've covered four of those games. Overall the Warriors are 30-11 SU the past two playoffs and they'll find a way to win this game in Cleveland tonight. |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1.5 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* Cleveland Cavaliers (pick'em) over Golden State Warriors 8PM CT Wednesday - We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers in this MUST WIN situation, AT HOME, OFF A BLOWOUT LOSS! Good teams, great players bounce in this role and the right wager here is Cleveland...even without Kevin Love. During the regular season and playoffs the Cavs have lost back to back games just 9 times this year and lost three games in a row once but Irving and James both missed games in that 3 game losing stretch. Cleveland didn't do ANYTHING well in Game #2 and it was a humbling 33-point loss in Golden State. They shot just 38% as a team in Game #1 and 35% in G2 which are both well below their season average of 46.2% which is 9th best in the league. You can bet that the Cavs at home will shoot much better tonight, especially LeBron who has to attack the rim and the Warriors interior defenders. When coming off a 'beat' this season the Cavs are 19-9 SU and have covered 4 of their last six in that situation. James shot near 54% in the Eastern Conference playoffs but has been held to just 41% in the first two games of this series. At home this year LeBron made over 53% of his FG attempts. The Cavaliers are 40-8 SU at home this year and during the regular season had the 6th best home point differential in the league. In the post season the Cavs home differential is +20PPG and they haven't lost with a 7-0 record. In fact, Cleveland has the best efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of all the playoff teams of +22.8 which is remarkable. Lastly let's consider this. If this game was played a week ago the Cavaliers would easily be a 4 to 5 point home favorite so the value lies with Cleveland. |
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06-06-16 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 runs in Baltimore vs Kansas City @ 7 ET Monday - No one will be happier to see Orioles uniforms than the Royals. Kansas City had been red hot and scoring runs like crazy before they ran into the tough pitching of the Indians vaunted starting rotation. After four straight losses and being held to 1 run or less in three straight games, the Royals are likely to resume their hot hitting tonight based on facing a struggling Orioles hurler. Before struggling at the plate in their three most recent games, KC had averaged 11.8 hits per game in their last 10 games and, talk about consistency, the Royals reached double digits in hits in every single game. Also, Kansas City averaged 6.8 runs per game during this hot stretch at the plate and they now face Mike Wright who is returning from the minors for this outing. Wright is winless in his 3 most recent starts at the MLB level and he compiled a 7.81 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in these outings. The over is 6-2 in his MLB starts this season. The Royals will have Danny Duffy toeing the rubber this evening and the KC southpaw has seen each of his last two starts result in overs as Duffy has allowed 3 homers in these outings. Also noteworthy about tonight's game is the fact that Wright allowed FOUR homers in his most recent start. Duffy has produced solid numbers in his career starts against the Orioles but Baltimore comes into this game having won 4 of their last 5 games and has averaged scoring 8 runs per game in these contests. The O's are hot and have plenty of confidence at the plate. The over is 8-4 in their games against left-handed starters this season and 13-5 in Baltimore's games against teams with a winning record this year. We'll take the OVER in Baltimore for a TOP PLAY Monday. |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 55 m | Show |
We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers plus the points over Golden State in Game #2. We expect the Cavs to bounce back here and if they don't win they should cover this number. During the regular season and playoffs the Cavs have lost back to back games just 8 times this year and they're coming off a pretty poor game by their standards. Cleveland turned the ball over 17 times which was uncharacteristic as they averaged just 13 per game during the regular season which was 6th best in the NBA. They also shot just 38% as a team which was well below their season average of 46.2% which is 9th best in the league. When coming off a 'beat' this season the Cavs are 19-8 SU and have covered 4 of their last five in that situation. Golden State didn't get big games from their two Super Stars in Steph Curry or Klay Thompson so expect those two to contribute much more in this game but you also can't expect reserve guards Shaun Livingston to score a career playoff best 20-points or Leandro Barbosa to go 5 of 5 from the field. The Cavs have been 'dogs' just 10 times this season and they've covered 70% of those games. Included in that underdog run, Cleveland has only been a pooch of 7 or more points only once this year and they covered that game so we'll grab the points here in this must win situation with a good team like the Cavs. |
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06-04-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 runs in Texas vs Seattle @ 9:10 ET Saturday - With yesterday's game going over the total, Seattle is now on a 100% perfect 10-0 run of overs! The Mariners have averaged 11.5 hits per game in their last dozen games and they have a number of dangerous hitters in their lineup enjoying solid success in their career appearances against the Rangers Martin Perez. The Texas southpaw has given up 7 walks and 3 homers in his last two starts against Seattle. Perez enjoyed some success against the Mariners in his only appearance against them earlier this season but he now gives them a second look. Prior to the successful outing against the M's earlier this season, Perez gave up 14 hits in 11 innings in his prior two outings versus Seattle. Nate Karns gets the start for the M's and he has enjoyed some success against Texas in his career but he's been more and more hittable in his recent outings leading into this start. Karns has given up 17 hits in his last 3 starts even though he averaged only 5.5 innings per start. The over went 3-0 in those 3 starts for Karns and the over is 4-1 in Mariners road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The over is 13-7 in Rangers home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Also, with yesterday's over, the over is now 12-6 this season in Texas' games against teams with a winning record. A lot of potent bats (and red hot bats) in this match-up Saturday should lead to another over...the 11th in a row for Seattle! We'll take the OVER in Texas Saturday. |
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06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
We've got another great Finals match up this year when the Warrior and Cavaliers square off for the second straight time. We clearly got the best of the East and the West again in what promises to be a very entertaining series. The first thing I read online this morning is LeBron and the Cavs wanted this match up and are out for revenge from last year's Finals loss to Golden State. Guess what. LeBron and the Cavs were looking for payback in two regular season games against the Warriors and had a full roster but still LOST BY 34 in Golden State and 6 at home. That's five straight losses by Cleveland to Golden State dating back to last year's Championship. The Warriors won 73 games during the regular season this year and are currently 48-3 SU at home including 8-1 in the playoffs. The Warriors have an average point differential at home of +14.2PPG, shoot an average of 49% and allow under 44% shooting by opponents. In the playoffs the Warriors have won every home game but two by more than the spread in this game. Last year the big difference in the Warriors/Cavaliers series was the defensive play of Andre Iguodala who frustrated LBJ in the last three games of that series. If you paid close attention to the Thunder versus Warriors series the difference maker we felt was Iggy's defense on Durant and Westbrook in Games 6 and 7. Obviously Cleveland is playing pretty well right now but some of that is a bit misleading as they beat some average teams in the East in Detroit, Atlanta and Toronto. Home court will be huge in this series and Golden State has covered 10 of their last twelve on their home court. We'll lay the points in Game #1. |
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06-02-16 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7.5 runs in San Diego vs Seattle @ 9:10 ET Thursday - Just when you thought the match-ups between these clubs couldn't get any crazier - 20 runs Tuesday - they again combined for 20 runs Wednesday. The Padres did most of the damage yesterday after the Mariners did most of the damage the day before. We expect both teams to continue crushing the ball Thursday night. Seattle's games have gone over the total in 8 straight games and the M's are averaging 11.5 hits per game during this potent stretch of work at the plate. The Padres have gone over the total in 6 straight games and the typically light-hitting San Diego lineup has had at least 9 hits in 7 of their last 9 games. Facing Wade Miley during a time in which he is struggling should help San Diego to stay hot at the dish. The Mariners southpaw has an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts and has given up 4 homers in these two outings. The Padres will counter with Colin Rea. The right-hander will be toeing the rubber tonight after a short stint in the minors. Rea's most recent MLB starts have seen him go winless in 3 mid-May starts while producing a 6.00 ERA. The over is 4-1 in Rea's home starts this season and 6-3 in all of Miley's starts this season. Considering the combined 14-0 over run that these teams are on, we raise this play to a Top level status. We'll grab the OVER in the San Diego Padres game Thursday for a TOP PLAY. |
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05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Play on: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (-) over Golden State Warriors – 8PM CT - Game 6 Saturday – The oddsmakers have finally gotten this line right with the Thunder now favored at home over Golden State but we feel there is still value with the OKC side. Consider for a moment how impressive the Thunder have been at home in the playoffs, especially the last two series as they are 4-1 SU & ATS against the Spurs and Warriors who were a combined 140-24 on the season. Not only that, but the last four wins over those two elite teams have come by 14, 14, 18 and 24 points respectively. Let’s also not forget the Thunder were 32-9 SU at home during the regular season (+9.8 point differential) and have just two home losses in the post season (+15.8 point playoff home differential). After breaking down the films off all the games of this series we’re convinced OKC is clearly the better team at this point in time and have too many matchup advantages for Golden State to overcome. KD or Kevin Durant is averaging 31PPG in this series while running mate Russell Westbrook is averaging 6.6 rebounds, 11 assists and 28PPG against Golden State this round. Even in their Game #5 win we didn’t feel the Warriors were the better team when they got a much needed home win to extend this series. Now OKC is back at home and off a loss where they are 13-3 SU this season in that situation. In fact, dating back to 2009 the Thunder have the best overall spread record in the NBA when coming off a loss by covering 58.4% of the time. In a playoff closeout situation the Thunder have won 11 straight games at home and have covered 6 straight times on this floor against Golden State. The pick here is OKC |
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05-27-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 10.5 Runs - San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, Friday at 8:40 PM ET - The Rockies are happy to be back home where they are hitting around .300 on the season. They got "warmed up" for this homestand by exploding for 8 runs in last night's game at Boston after previously struggling to score runs on the road trip. The advantage they have tonight is facing a hurler who has been struggling on the road this season and whom they have enjoyed recent success against. Matt Cain gets the ball for the Giants and he is 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Also, this will already be the third time this season that he's facing the Rockies and even though one of the first two starts was at pitcher-friendly San Francisco, his results against Colorado have not been good. Cain gave up 6 earned runs in each of the two starts against the Rockies. He also allowed a total of 3 homers in the 2 outings and he did not record a single strikeout in the 2nd outing. He was not able to get out of the 5th inning in either start. As you can, the Giants will have to score a lot of runs to keep up with Colorado in this one and they should be able to do so! San Francisco will face a hurler who has struggled at Coors Field. Tyler Chatwood will be toeing the rubber in Denver tonight. The Rockies right-hander has been fantastic on the road this season but, like most pitchers, he has struggled at Coors Field. Chatwood is 1-3 with a 6.65 ERA in his home outings this season. He also has been rocked by the Giants in recent starts and they did already face him at Coors Field last month. In his last three starts against the G-men, Chatwood has given up 14 earned runs in 18 innings of work. San Fran has pounded him for 6 homers in those 3 starts. The over has gone 5-2 in Giants Friday games this season and 4-2 in Rockies home games where they are a small favorite of up to -125. We are forecasting another solid over right here and the situation is a strong one which elevates this play to a TOP PLAY rating. Take the OVER in Colorado Friday. |
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05-27-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 196.5 | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
ASA Play on: OVER 196.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ over Toronto Raptors – 7:30PM CT - Game 6 Friday –The Cavs ripped through the first two rounds of the playoffs (10 straight wins) before the Raptors found their shooting stroke back at home and made this a series. After a blowout win in Game #5 the Cavs look to end this series tonight and will dispose of this Toronto team in a high scoring affair. Cleveland shot just 36% as a team from beyond the arc during the regular season but have hit 43% in the post-season and they're attempting 33 3's per game. In Game #1 Cleveland shot over 55% from the field overall and made 7 of 20 3's for 35%. In Game #2 they were 7 of 20 from beyond the arc and hit 50% from the field overall. In Game #4 which was a loss the Cavs still shot over 47% from the field and in Game #5 they shot over 57% and put up 116 points. The Cavs aren't going to change their offensive philosophy here as the Raptors have the 27th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA. Cleveland has the best offensive efficiency rating in the post season at 1.188PPP and are averaging more points per game at 106.5PPG than they did during the regular season. The Raptors OEFF numbers are similar to their season averages so we do expect them to score here too. Raptor games played in Toronto this season averaged 201PPG with the Raptors averaging 45% shooting as a team but also allowed foes to hit 45%. In the last game here these two teams combined for 204 total points as both shot it well and played fast enough for the ‘over’ bettors to cash in. The value clearly lies with an OVER bet here as the line has moved dramatically from the opener which started at 202.5. |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Play on: Golden State Warriors (-7) over Oklahoma City Thunder. We have to side with the Warriors here in a ‘must win’ situation at home off a loss. The scenario is perfect for a bet on Golden State but the Thunder have been the dominate team in this series and so laying seven plus points is the issue. Three of the four games in this series have been blowout with the victors winning by 27, 28 and 24 points so the number doesn’t scare us as much as it might normally. Golden State did not lose two straight games this entire season and are not about to lose three. The Warriors are 46-3 SU at home and have a home point differential of +14.4PPG which is one of the best in the NBA. On average Golden State shoots over 49% at home while allowing foes to hit under 44% of their shots and what’s significant about their shooting percentages is the fact the best shooting team in the NBA shot less than 41% in the previous two games. Back at home GST will find their touch again. The Warriors are 12-1 SU off a loss and a perfect 6-0 at home in that situation. The Thunder have been brilliant in the playoffs and may win this series but they won’t stay close in this one. OKC is just 1-5 ATS their last six trips to Golden State and we don’t expect the Thunder to get a cover here. |
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05-25-16 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8 Runs - Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - Zach Neal makes his first-ever MLB start for the A's on Wednesday night. He got his first taste of the bigs two weeks ago when he pitched some middle-inning relief in a game that was a blowout loss at Boston. Neal gave up 3 earned runs in 3 innings in that stint and this is a pitcher whose minor league numbers at the AAA level were not impressive until this season. We are not "sold" on Neal just yet and certainly expect him to struggle in his first ever MLB start as it comes on the road against a Mariners club that has scored at least 5 runs in 13 of their last 20 games. Yesterday's M's win was their 6th in their last 8 games and Seattle has averaged nearly 7 runs per game in the 6 victories. They should get to the rookie Neal early and often in this game. The key to the over is that Oakland faces a "fading" Hisashi Iwakuma. The Mariners right had a solid start against the A's about three weeks ago but, since then, he has given up 10 earned runs on 22 hits in 17 innings over his last 3 starts. With Oakland having already seen Iwakuma in September AND October of last season plus facing him again in early May and now late May as well, familiarity with his repertoire of pitches should lead to some success at the plate tonight. The over is 15-9 in A's road games this season and 17-9 when they are off of a loss. The Athletics have a history of overs on "get away days" and that is part of what has led to a 36-19 "over" run in Wednesday games. We are forecasting another right here and the situation is a strong one which elevates this play to a TOP PLAY rating. Take the OVER in Seattle Wednesday. |
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05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -10.5 | Top | 78-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5) over Toronto Raptors – Weds 7:30PM CT – OK, we’ve lost two straight wagers on the Cavs as they completely let us down on the road in Games #3 and #4. Cleveland was unbeaten in the playoffs prior to their trip to the north where the Raptors finally woke up and played good basketball. But now back in Cleveland we expect the Cavs to dominate like they did in the first two games of this series when they won by 31 and 19 points respectively. Cleveland shot over 50% as a team in the first two contests, then shot under 50% in both games in Toronto. The same can be said about the Raptors who shot poorly in Games 1 & 2 then shot well when they were at home in Games 3 & 4. Let’s not forget the Cavs have won their home games in the post season by a ridiculous 18PPG and only one of those victories has been by less than tonight’s point spread. The Cavs are averaging 1.218 points per possessions at home which is an incredible number and the best in the NBA in the post season. Their defensive efficiency at home is the 3rd best overall of all the teams left standing at 1.02PPP. Toronto’s road OEFF (offensive efficiency) is last among teams that are still alive in the post season at .978 points per possession and they have the largest overall road average deficit in the playoffs of -10.5PPG which is why they are just 2-6 ATS in road playoff games. After some questionable ‘no call’s’ for LeBron in Toronto expect him to get the benefit of the doubt at home tonight. Cleveland is 18-8 SU off a loss this season and 11-1 at home. Granted they have a big number to cover tonight but we feel they get a double digit home win here. |
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05-24-16 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 222 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
UNDER 222 Golden State @ Oklahoma City Tuesday Game #4 - The best wager tonight is on the UNDER in the Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game #4. After allowing 133 points in the previous game you can bet Golden State’s defense will show up here. The Warriors had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season allowing just 1.038 points per possession and were top two a year ago. OKC is 13th in that same defensive category and are allowing less points per game in the playoffs than they did during the regular season. In Games #1 and #2 these two teams combined for 210 total points and 209 total points before the Thunder exploded for 133 themselves in Game #3. This game will be tightly contested and ‘playoff defense’ shows up tonight in a critical Game #4. The Warriors have stayed under the number in 7 of their last ten road games and 6 of their last eight Conference Finals. Oklahoma City has played under the total in 4 of their last five games when coming off a win and they’ve played under in 6 of their last eight Conference Final games. Backed by a strong Finals system we expect a very low scoring game tonight in OKC. |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder (+) over Golden State Warriors, 7PM CT - We will play on the OKC Thunder plus the points over the GST Warriors on Sunday in Game 3 of this series. With this Western Conference Finals locked at 1 win apiece it makes this game HUGE for both clubs and we like the home court advantage. The Warriors lost just 9 games during the regular season but have already lost 3 in the playoffs, two of which were on the road in Houston and Portland. Now they travel to one of the loudest, best home courts in the NBA in Oklahoma where the Thunder had a positive point differential of +9.8PPG. Their offensive efficiency rating at home was 1.125 points per possession which was second best in the league. In the playoffs those numbers are up and that includes a series against the Spurs. Granted, the Warriors road numbers are impressive too but they've proven they aren't as invincible on the road in the post season as they were during the regular season. The Thunder are 21-9 SU off a loss this season, 12-3 at home which obviously applies here considering they are an underdog. The home team has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and you don't get a team like OKC that has 2 of the 6 best players on their roster as a home underdog very often (4-2 ATS last 6 times). The difference in this game is Westbrook, Durant and a rebounding advantage for the Thunder. Grab the points. |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 198.5 | Top | 84-99 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Play on: OVER 198.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ over Toronto Raptors – 7:30PM CT - Game 3 Saturday – It pains me to say this but the Cavaliers have figured it out and have turned into the Warriors/Spur of the East. Watch the Cavs closely and how they unselfishly move the basketball, make the extra pass and are willing passers. By sharing the basketball and making shots it has opened up the driving lanes which makes LeBron James nearly unstoppable (shooting 65% from close and just 29% from 3-point line). The Cavs ripped through the first two rounds of the playoffs (10 straight wins) and will dispose of a bad Toronto team rather easily. Cleveland shot just 36% as a team from beyond the arc during the regular season but have hit 44% in the post-season and they're attempting 33 3's per game. In Game #1 Cleveland shot over 55% from the field overall and made 7 of 20 3's for 35%. In Game #2 they were 7 of 20 from beyond the arc and hit 50% from the field overall. The Cavs aren't going to change their offensive philosophy here as the Raptors have the 27th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA. Cleveland has the best offensive efficiency rating in the post season at 1.211PPP and are averaging more points per game at 108.6PPG than they did during the regular season. The Raptors OEFF numbers are similar to their season averages so we do expect them to score here too. Raptor games played in Toronto this season averaged 201PPG with the Raptors averaging 45% shooting as a team but also allowed foes to hit 45%. The value clearly lies with an OVER bet here as the line has moved dramatically from the opener which started at 202.5. |
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05-20-16 | Blue Jays v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 8.5 Runs - Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This absolutely has the makings of a pitchers' duel. Tyler Duffey has been phenomenal for the Twins so far this season and he should have another fantastic outing here. The problem for him (and for Minnesota fans) is that the Twins simply can't hit! Minnesota is hitting only .234 this season as a team and the Twins are averaging only 3.4 runs per game in their home games this year. The Minnesota bullpen has a 2.62 ERA in home games this season and the Blue Jays bullpen has a 3.00 ERA in road games this season. Each of Duffey's last 3 starts have stayed under the total and he has a 1.85 ERA on the season. Aaron Sanchez will be toeing the rubber for Toronto tonight and 6 of his 8 starts this season have stayed under the total. Sanchez has made 5 road starts this season and the Blue Jays right-hander has a 2.34 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in those outings. In road games this season Toronto is hitting only .229 entering Friday's action. The Blue Jays have been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 12 games while the Twins have been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. Struggles at the plate, solid bullpens, strong starting pitchers...it all adds up to great line value on the under in this series opener Friday. The line move from a total of an 8 to now an 8.5 has added even more value where the value truly was already off of the charts in this one! Take the UNDER in Minnesota for a TOP PLAY Friday. |
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05-19-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -12 | Top | 89-108 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-12) over Toronto Raptors - Game 2 Thursday - Prior to the opener of this series the Cavs last played nine days ago, then they beat the Raptors handily in Game #1 and rested starters late in that game. The Raptors came off a grueling 7-game series with the Miami Heat and fatigue showed on Tuesday when they were blown out. The Cavs ripped through the first two rounds of the playoffs and have morphed into the 'Warriors' of the East by turning into a 3-point shooting team. Cleveland shot just 36% as a team during the regular season but have hit 44% in the post-season and they're attempting 33 three's per game. In Game #1 Cleveland shot over 55% from the field overall and made 7 of 20 three's for 35%. The Cavs aren't going to change their offensive philosophy here as the Raptors have the 27th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA. The Raptors are certainly not playing their best basketball right now and Cleveland is. Toronto has the worst point differential of any of the playoff teams left standing at +.6PPG while the Cavs have the 2nd best point differential in the playoffs of +10.5PPG. Cleveland has the best offensive efficiency rating in the post season at 1.207PPP while the Raptors have the worst OEFF of any team left in the post season. In the opener the Raptors shot just 42% as a team and were killed on the boards 45-23. The line on this game is clearly inflated and we are betting into strong number but with how these teams are playing we'll bite and lay the points. Toronto is just 1-5 ATS their last six away from home and Cavs on perfect 4-0 ATS stretch on their home court. |
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05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
PLAY ON Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder- Tuesday, 8PM CT- In the opener of the Western Conference Finals we watched the all-time regular season win leader, Golden State, control the game for the majority of 3 quarters but couldn’t hold off the Thunder in the end. In Game #2 there is only one way to go and that’s with the 0-1 Golden State Warriors minus the points. The Warriors didn’t shoot it as well as they normally do in the opener and attempted 15 less free throws than the Thunder which is odd considering they are the home team and defending Champs. Golden State beat this Thunder team in the regular season by 8 and 15 points at home so we know they’re capable of covering tonight’s number. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG during the regular season and are 45-3 SU this year at home. The Warriors suffered just 11 losses this year prior to Monday night and they are a perfect 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS in their next game after a beat, with those 11 wins coming by an average of 15PPG. The Warriors, were without Steph Curry for several games, are 7-2 ATS their last nine at home with six playoff wins by 26, 9, 23, 12, 11 and 4 points. We feel the big advantage for Golden State in this series comes on the defensive end of the floor where the Warriors had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season while the Thunder were 13th. In the playoffs the Warriors are allowing 1.032 points per possession which is the 4th best in the post season. On the flip side OKC is 8th overall in points allowed per possession in the playoffs. In this situation, with the Thunder coming off a big upset victory we expect a letdown in Game #2, along with an inspired effort by the defending champs at home off a loss. Warriors have covered 6 of their last seven off a loss and the home team has covered 7 of the last nine in this rivalry. Lay the points. |
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05-17-16 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 7 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7 Runs - Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals game. The Red Sox lineup is filled with confidence right now. Boston just completed a 7 game homestand where they won 6 of the 7 games and averaged a ridiculous 10.4 runs per game! It was not a fluke as Boston reached double digits in hits in all 7 games and, in fact, had 14 or more hits in 6 of the 7 games. As you would expect with these types of numbers, all 7 games went over the total. The Royals Yordano Ventura is unlikely to slow down the BoSox hittters. Ventura has an 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has walked 14 while striking out only 5 in 16 innings his past three starts. The Royals right-hander is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in his three career starts against the Red Sox. Boston will have Rick Porcello toeing the rubber tonight. Although Porcello has an impressive record so far this season, the magic may be starting to fade as he has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Porcello has not fared well in recent visits to Kauffman Stadium either as the Red Sox right-hander has given up 10 earned runs in 8 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts at Kansas City. 6 of the last 7 meetings in Kansas City between these clubs have gone over the total. The Royals sticks got off to a slow start this season but they've averaged 9.5 hits per game in their last 8 games and they match up well with Porcello while the Boston lumber also remains red hot in this match-up. Take advantage of the low total. Take the OVER! |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
PLAY ON Golden State Warriors (-7.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder. In the opener of the Western Conference Finals we will side with the golden State Warriors minus the points. Under Steve Kerr the Warriors are 6-1 SU in Game #1’s of a series while the Thunder are on a 0-7 SU streak in that same situation. Golden State beat this Thunder team three times in the regular season by 8, 3 and 15 points with the larger of the two victories coming at home. It’s well documented that Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG during the regular season. OKC had a very good road differential of +4.7PPG but they were just 10-12 ATS when playing away versus a team with a winning record. In fact, as an underdog this season the Thunder were just 6-8 ATS. The Warriors, were without Steph Curry for several games, are 7-1 ATS their last eight at home with six playoff wins by 26, 9, 23, 12, 11 and 4 points. As far as the on-court dynamics we feel the big advantage for the Warriors in this series comes on the defensive end of the floor. Golden State had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season while the Warriors were 5th best. In this situation, with the Thunder coming off a big series upset victory over the Spurs we expect a letdown in Game #1 of this series opener in Golden State. |
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05-15-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +4.5 over Toronto, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET Three of the first four games in this series went to overtime and the overall scoring in those four games was Miami 379 & Toronto 374. Pretty much as tight as you can get. The last two games have strayed from that with the Raptors winning by 8 at home on Wednesday and Miami returning the favor winning by 12 on Friday. We think game 7 gets back to the trend of the first four games and fully expect this one to go to the wire. Miami is a veteran team that has proven they can get it done in these situations with Dwayne Wade at the helm. The Heat are now 7-1 their last 8 elimination games in the playoffs. They are 7-3 in Game 7’s while Toronto has never played in a Game 7 of this magnitude. The Heat have been in this spot year in and year out. Toronto’s playoff woes have been well documented as they are now 6-17 ATS their last 23 post-season tilts. This will be a pressure packed game for a Toronto team that is not accustomed to being in this spot. With the poor numbers we’ve stated, we simply have to shy away from the Raptors as a 2+ possession favorite here. Toronto relies heavily on their 2 guards DeRozan and Lowry and the fact is neither has shot well. Both are shooting under 40% in this series and we don’t expect a turnaround here in a stressful game 7 setting against a defense that has played very well not allowing the Raptors to hit 100 points once in this entire series. With Valanciunas now out, Toronto will rely even more on their perimeter shooting which is a recipe for disaster in this situation. We’ve got a feeling the pressure gets to Toronto here. They had the better record, they are playing at home, and trying to reverse their poor post-season history. You could say the more experienced Heat who have been successful in this situation are playing with nothing to lose – should we say less pressure – being on the road. We’ll take the points in this one. |
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05-13-16 | Cardinals +117 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals Money Line +115 over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - Interesting pitching match-up at Dodger Stadium Friday night. Both Michael Wacha and Ross Stripling pitched at Texas A & M. These former teammates square off in Los Angeles tonight and you can bet that the last thing that Wacha wants is for Stripling to earn his first MLB win at his expense! Wacha is already well established at the MLB level and has even been an All Star. Stripling skipped over the AAA level and made the jump to the bigs out of spring training this year. Though the Dodgers right-hander is off of a strong start in his most recent outing, Stripling has struggled in his recent home starts. 8 earned runs on 15 hits in 10 innings is the statline for Stripling's last two starts at home. It seems he is putting some extra pressure on himself when is at home and now this is easily the biggest home start of his young career (since he is facing Wacha) and this will increase the pressure level for Stripling! Wacha has pitched better than his numbers would lead you to believe because he simply got hurt by the long ball in his recent starts. Wacha has not given up a lot of hits but he's allowed some big hits. 6 of the 8 earned runs in his last 3 starts were via a home run. That's a key stat that strengthens the play on Wacha tonight because Dodger Stadium is a pitchers park and does not produce a lot of homers particularly at night. The Dodgers slugging percentage in home games this season ranks near the bottom of the majors while the Cardinals slugging percentage in road games this season ranks right near the top of the majors. The Dodgers are only 7-10 at home this season. As a home favorite of -100 to -125 the Dodgers are on a 7-17 run! The Cardinals are 10-6 in road games this season and St Louis is on a 10-4 run when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The Cardinals are the play as a small road dog offering excellent line value here earning our Top Play rating. |
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05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat UNDER 189 | Top | 91-103 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Tonight we play UNDER in the Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat game Friday night. Surprisingly the total on this game has not been moved as much as it should be considering this series results and value still lies with an under wager. Let’s first look at the numbers Vegas has posted on the five games of this series. In Toronto we have had numbers of 192, 189 and 189. In Miami the oddsmakers have put up a total of 187.5 and 193.5. In those five games the average total posted by Vegas is 190 points. Now three of the games in this series have gone to overtime so if we base our calculation on regulation time we find these two teams are averaging just 179 total points in four quarters which is well below the total tonight. Both teams have had problems shooting the basketball in this series with Toronto’s All-Star backcourt of Lowry and DeRozan hitting just 32% from the field in the post season. And remember these two players take the vast majority of the attempts per game (33 combined per game) for the Raptors (average 81 FG attempts per game). Miami average nearly 108PPG since the All-Star break to the end of the regular season, but in their last 10 games they are averaging just 90PPG. The Heat were one of the better shooting teams in the league during the regular season but in this series they are down to just 44.5% shooting which would put them in the bottom half of the NBA in field goal percentage during the regular season. The same can be said about Toronto who shot 44.5% during the regular season but are hitting only 43.2% in this series. The under has cashed 4 straight Heat home games and 6 straight Raptor road games. With four potential starters (2 each) for both teams we highly doubt scoring is going to go up so the bet here is clearly the UNDER! |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We are playing on the OKC Thunder at home over the San Antonio Spurs Game #6 Thursday. The 'statistical' side of me screamed the Spurs in this game but the 'eye-test' tells me the Thunder win this game tonight. OK, that's not all and there is plenty of statistical support for the Thunder here including the Spurs record of 1-4 in Duncan's era when they are down 3-2 in a series. Some will say it's a 'must win' game for the Spurs but it's also a 'must win' game for the Thunder who don't want to go back to San Antonio. There has been a lot of talk about different key stats but the biggest is the Thunder's advantage on the boards. It's become evident Tim Duncan can't rebound against Adam's and Kanter and the Spurs don't have anyone on the bench that can come in and compete on the glass with the Thunder's "Bigs". OKC was +18 rebounds in the last game, +6 in Game #4, +5 in Game #3 and +11 in Game #2. The Thunder can make up for being a poorer offensive team than the Spurs because of how they dominate the rebounds and get second chance baskets. It's really the difference here. Yes, San Antonio is 14-3 SU off a loss this season but after a stellar season at home the Spurs have proven to be vulnerable with two home losses. San Antonio was also just 1-6 SU on the road this year against the better teams in the NBA so they're not the bully you think they are when up against the best. OKC is 35-11 SU at home this year and have 2 of the eight best players in the NBA on their roster in Westbrook and Durant and they'll advance tonight with a win over the Spurs. San Antonio just 3-12 ATS their last 15 visits to OKC. |
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05-11-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
PLAY ON Miami Heat (+4.5) over Toronto Raptors – 7PM CT Wednesday – With all the support of statistics it is clearly a case of Toronto players lacking ‘it’ when it comes to winning big games or winning in a playoff setting. This Toronto team had some fantastic season long numbers but last year and this post season they haven’t looked like the team they were during the regular season. The Raptors are a poor 5-16 ATS the past three post seasons and much of that is due to the lack of consistency from All-Star’s Lowry and DeRozan. Lowry and DeRozan are the team’s leading scorers at over 21PPG but their struggles shooting have severely hurt this team’s chances of advancing. In Game #4 those two combined for a 6 of 28 shooting night and just 19 combined points. As a team the Raptors hit less than 40% in the previous game while the Heat shot 45%. In the regular season the Heat were average in terms of overall offensive and defensive efficiency as a team, but in the playoffs they have the best DEFF allowing just .981 points per possession. The offense is 9th best at 1.049PPP which is slightly lower than their season average. During the regular season the Raptors had impressive efficiency statistics but in the post season they have the worst OEFF rating of all the teams left playing and have dropped from 1.10PPP to just 1.01PPP. Three of the four games in this series have gone into overtime and the non-overtime win was by just 4 points. All combined in the four games of this series the Heat have scored a grand total of 379 total points. Toronto has scored 374 total points. Just 5 total points separate these two teams in a four game series!!! D-Wade has turned back the clock and is carrying this Heat team and this one goes down to the wire again. There hasn’t been an adjustment in the pointspread and yet the Raps have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last eight games while the Heat are on a 5-1 ATS run. Grab the points! |
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05-11-16 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 Runs - Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox game. Rick Porcello has put up some impressive numbers for the Red Sox early this season and that is what is helping to drive the downward move on this total as it has gone from a 9.5 to a 9. The result is even better value for the over in this match-up because Porcello will be facing an A's lineup that has averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 6 games and that also averaged 11 hits per game during this stretch. The last time Porcello faced Oakland was exactly a year ago to the day and he allowed 9 hits in his 5 innings on the mound. This season Porcello has faced a slate of struggling offense so his numbers are well below where they are eventually going to end up for this season. Thus the value in a spot like this to essentially "go against" him. The reason the play is the over rather than Oakland is because the A's will have Eric Surkamp toeing the rubber tonight. The lefty is 0-2 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his four starts this season. He's been very hittable as you can you see and Surkamp faces a red hot Red Sox offense that also just saw a southpaw starter last night too. In winning 9 of their last 13 games the Red Sox have exploded for an average of 6.2 runs per game and Boston has amassed double digits in hits in 9 of those 13 games. The over is 4-2 in Boston's last 6 games and 6-1 in Oakland's last 7 games. When the Athletics are off of game where they allowed 10 runs or more the over is 11-6 the last 17 times. The over is 5-2 in Boston's games this season when the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Take the OVER for a Top Play! |
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05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder - 7PM Tuesday - We like San Antonio at home in Game 5 of this series with the OKC Thunder. The Spurs were overshadowed by the Golden State Warriors all season long but their season statistics are just as impressive, if not more so in some cases, considering how they managed their schedule. The Spurs had the 2nd best overall point differential (+10.6PPG) in the league and home differential of +13.9PPG. They were 40-1 SU at home in the regular season and destroyed Memphis in the first round by 32 and 26 in San Antonio. The Spurs can match up with Durant and Westbrook and limit the Thunders two superstars which is clearly the way to beat OKC. Durant has shot is well the past three games of this series but his overall shooting percentage in the post season is 43.3% which is down considerably from his regular season average of 50.5%. In the opener of this series in San Antonio he was just 6 of 15 from the field and scored just 16 points. This Spurs defense was 1st in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just .99 points per possession. San Antonio is one of the best overall FG% defenses in the league and 3rd overall in 3-point percentage against them by allowing just 33%. It's hard to believe but OKC is the 16th worst 3-point shooting team in the league so don't expect the Thunder to rain 3's in this game. You probably didn't know this either with the way the media hypes the Thunder as shooters, and the Spurs as defenders, but San Antonio is the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the league behind Golden State at 38.1%. Kawhi Leonard is playing fantastic right now along with LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker who give the Spurs the depth the Thunder lack. We love to play on great teams off a loss which is the case here as the Thunder beat San Antonio in Game #4 in OKC. San Antonio is 14-2 SU off a loss this season, 10-1 at home. Oh-by-the-way...those 10 wins at home off a loss came by an average of 19PPG and the lone loss was late in the year against Golden State. The home team has covered 20 of the last 30 in this series and surprisingly the Thunder were not great underdogs of 7.5 point or less with a 3-7 spread record this season. Lay the points with San Antonio who gets a convincing home win as they did in Game #1 of this series. |
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05-09-16 | Warriors -5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - This is a no-brainer to take the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. Let's just look at this logically first. We get arguably the best team of all time, off a loss and playing with revenge. In fact, this same scenario played out last series when Houston won Game #3 of their series at home and the next game the Warriors won by 27. The Warriors are 10-0 SU off a loss this season and those wins have come by an average of 14PPG. Let's not forget this Golden State team was 35-9 SU on the road this season with the second best point differential per game of +7.1PPG. They had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings away from home at 1.125 points per possession while allowing just 1.055PPP for the 7th best defensive efficiency rating. Portland had very good offensive efficiency numbers at home along with a +5.7 point differential but defensively they were in the bottom half of the league in efficiency ratings and they allowed foes to make 46.1% (14th) of their FG attempts on their own floor. A bad FG% defense is not a good recipe against a Warriors team that is 1st in the NBA in team shooting percentage at 48.7% on the year. Golden State is 7-2 SU the last nine meetings with the Blazers and all seven of those wins came by double digits with an average margin of victory of 16PPG. Portland is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the league at 37% but in their win last game they shot a ridiculous 56.7% as a team which nearly 20 full percentage points better than their season average. Golden State shot the 3 extremely well the last time out by making 48.3% of their 3-point attempts but that is just 7 percentage points higher than their season average. Given the law of averages, we don't see the Blazers shooting it as well as they did in the last game, and they can't rely on their defense to win games BUT the Warriors can. Even without Curry our prediction models predicts a 10+ point win by Golden State here. Lay it! |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
We are going to play on the OKC Thunder at home over the San Antonio Spurs. In our analysis of Game #3 we see several factors that suggest the Thunder can play much better than they did in the last game. The Spurs played pretty well and OKC didn’t in our opinion and yet it was a 4-point game. Russell Westbrook is an NBA Super Star and was a triple-double machine all season long. Yet, he still has his ‘brain cramp’ moments which is exactly what happened in Game #3 when he attempted 21 of his 31 field goals without even making a pass first. Today he’ll look to get his teammates more involved and we expect a better overall team effort. The Thunder shot just 41.5% from the field (average 47.4% at home) in Game #3 and yet it was only a 4-point game. I didn’t think it was the Spurs defense as much as Westbrook missing a ton of point-blank shots. I thought OKC’s defense was much better in the last game and expect a similar performance tonight in this do-or-die situation. Even with how well the Cavs are playing right now we still feel the Thunder and Spurs are two of the three best teams in the NBA so now we’re getting one of the best teams in the league, at home, off a loss and also a small underdog. The Thunder were 20-9 SU this season off a SU loss and 11-3 at home including four straight covers. OKC has covered 11 of the last 14 games at home with the Spurs so they clearly know what it takes to win on this court against San Antonio. OKC has one of the best home court point differentials in the NBA at +10PPG and they’ll even this series up with a win tonight. |
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05-07-16 | Raptors v. Heat -5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Miami Heat (-5) over Toronto Raptors – 4PM CT Saturday – With all the support of statistics it is clearly a case of Toronto players lacking ‘it’ when it comes to winning big games or winning in a playoff setting. This Toronto team had some fantastic season long numbers but last year and this post season they haven’t looked like the team they were during the regular season. They are lucky to be tied 1-1 in this series and were very close to being down 0-2 going into today. The biggest reason for their struggles is the horrendous play of their star players Lowry and DeRozen who combined are shooting less than 32% in the post season. Lowry can’t buy a basket right now shooting just 2 of 14 from beyond the arc in this series and a pathetic 15.8% in the playoffs. Lowry and DeRozen are the team’s leading scorers at over 21PPG but their struggles shooting have severely hurt this team’s chances of advancing. Miami had a great opportunity to go up 2-0 in this series but an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers (averaged 14 per game during regular season) cost them a Game #2 win. The Heat have owned the boards in the two games of this series with a +17 margin which should continue today in Miami. Miami has won 3 of their four playoff games at home convincingly with wins coming by 32, 12 and 33 points. On the regular season the Heat were one of the better offensive and defensive efficiency teams in the league and had an average point differential of +5.3PPG. Again, we’ll mention the pressure factor and how it has affectied Toronto. During the regular season the Raptors had impressive road statistics but in the post season, against the 7th seed Pacers, they lost 2 of three on the road and the two losses came by 17 and 18 points. Miami is very good at home off a loss with a 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS record. The Heat have also covered 9 of their last ten at home while the Raptors are on a 0-6 ATS run. Lay the points with Miami here. |
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05-06-16 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 6.5 Runs - New York Mets @ San Diego Padres, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - We will play UNDER in the New York Mets at San Diego Padres game. Yesterday's game snuck over the total but the Mets had only 4 hits in the game. Though the Padres had 11 hits yesterday, San Diego had been held to an average of just 5 hits per game in their last 4 games. The Padres have struggled to score runs all season and now must face the Mets Noah Syndergaard who has a 2.50 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP this season. This absolutely should be a pitchers duel as the Padres will counter with Drew Pomeranz. The San Diego left-hander isn't the big name pitcher that Syndergaard is but Pomeranz has been "in the zone" this season to say the least! The lefty has a 2.48 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP so far on the year. Both of Syndergaard's road starts have stayed under the total this season and he has compiled a 0.69 ERA away from home so far. The Mets right-hander dominated the Padres in his most recent start against them with an 8 inning shutout featuring 9 strikeouts against 0 walks and only 3 hits. Pomeranz should also cruise tonight on the mound as the Mets haven't seen him since the 2012 season and he's on top of his game right now. The Mets have averaged just 2.3 runs per game in their 3 games against left-handed starters this season. The Padres are averaging just 3 runs per game in their home games this season. With the line move from 6 runs to 6.5 runs there is even more value with the under in this match-up. Take the UNDER for a TOP PLAY! |
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05-06-16 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 200.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
We like the OVER in the Spurs at Thunder game #3 on Friday night. Obviously, math, statistics, predictive models and game simulators have a lot to do with our handicapping process (along with everything else) and the numbers tell us this O/U number is to low and the value lies with the 'over'. Based on the pace of play of the games in this series we expect another higher scoring game tonight. When these same two teams met on this court during the regular season the oddsmakers posted a number of 207 and 207.5 on the two games and now we are looking at a number much less tonight. In 4 of the six meetings this season between these two teams at least one of the two have scored 102 or more points and three of those contests ended with a club topping 111+ points. The Spurs shoot over 48% as a team on the road (2nd best in NBA) while the Thunder shoot over 47.4% at home (4th best in NBA). San Antonio is the 10th highest scoring road team in the NBA averaging 102PPG while the Thunder are the 2nd highest scoring team at home averaging 109PPG. Did you know that 8 of the last ten meetings in OKC between these two team has stayed under? Well, let's discredit that trend with the following 'value' numbers. Tonight's O/U line is the lowest in the last 13 meetings between these two teams in Oklahoma City with the last seven all having Totals of 206 or higher AND six of those last seven ended with 200 or more points. The oddsmakers have over-adjusted here and given us value with an over wager. |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors -4.5 over Miami Heat 8PM ET- We have a hard time trusting this Toronto team but if there is a spot to play on them it’s here. It’s human nature here for the Heat to relax a little in this game after winning Game #1 as it will be Toronto’s reaction to play with more urgency. Let’s not forget the Raptors are 35-11 SU at home this season which is one of the better home court records in the entire NBA. Toronto has the 6th best home point differential in the league at +6.6PPG and the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating at home (1.125PPP). Prior to the Game #1 loss the Raptors had beaten Miami three straight times by 14, 20 and 8 points and in the two regular season home meeting the Raps were favored by -6.5 and -10.5 points which are both higher than tonight’s number. Toronto is 12-2 SU at home off a loss their last 14 games including 3-0 SU in the playoffs with all three wins coming by an average of 6PPG. Not to mention that nine of their last 12 wins off a SU loss (including playoffs) have come by more than tonight’s spread. Miami played very well in the opener but let’s not forget they just played a long tough series with an average Charlotte team and age isn’t on their side. The Heat were just 11-14 ATS on the road against teams with winning records this season and are just 3-8 ATS their last eleven overall away from home. This has also been a chalk series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen clashes. If there is any time or place to bet the Raptors in this series it’s in this game. |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
We had the Cavaliers in the opener of this series and talked a lot about match ups and how Atlanta just can’t match up with the Cavs. But in this game we have to take the points with Atlanta in a desperate Game 2 situation. Much like the Thunder and Blazers played in Game 2’s of their series we expect a similar effort from the Hawks here. In the opener the Cavs shot extremely well from beyond the arc by hitting 15 of 31 3-point attempts which was good for 48.4%, well above their 36% season average. That’s especially surprising considering the Hawks have the #1 ranked FG% defense in the NBA allowing opponents to hit just 42.8% of their attempts on the season. Atlanta had the 5th best 3-point percentage defense allowing just 33.5%. The Hawks as a team shoot over 45% but in Game #1 they made under 39% of their FG attempts which is well below their season average. And it wasn’t anything the Cavs did who have an average FG% defense. The Hawks have the 7th best road point differential in the NBA when playing on the road this year and have the 2nd best defensive efficiency away from home allowing just 1.028 points per possession. Let’s not forget the Hawks actually led Game #1 with 8 minutes to play in the game but the Hawks offense managed just two field goals in the final 4 minutes of the game. Cleveland has a history of being over-priced which is evident by their 34-43 ATS record as a favorite. Atlanta was one of the best defensive teams in the league and they’ll find a way to keep Game #2 close. Grab the points. |
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05-03-16 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 7.5 runs - Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - In his career, Hisashi Iwakuma is 23-10 in road starts. He's made 3 this season and has pitched very well on the road despite not yet having a victory to show for it. Last season Iwakuma went 5-1 on the road with a 2.56 ERA and batters only hit .220 against him. The Athletics have been struggling to score runs and the Oakland Coliseum is a pitchers park. That means a pitchers duel should be expected here. The Mariners have stayed under the total in 4 straight games and the A's have stayed under in 3 straight games. Oakland is hitting only .217 at home and averaging just 2.8 runs per game there. Seattle, overall on the season, is hitting only .232 this year. The Mariners bullpen has been stellar away from home though with a 0.96 ERA and the A's bullpen has a fantastic overall 2.42 ERA this season. The Athletics pen will be supporting ace Sonny Gray tonight. Off of a tough, short start in his most recent out, Gray will assuredly bounce back stronger than ever tonight. He is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in home games this season. Also, Gray is 36-22 with a 2.93 ERA overall in his career. He is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his career against the Mariners and Seattle's Iwakuma has allowed the A's just 1 earned run in each of his last two starts against Oakland. There is some extra line value here because the total jumped up from a 7 to a 7.5 and this is likely because of Gray's tough outing. He'll bounce right back as nothing is mechanically wrong and Iwakuma will likely have a great start as well as he continues his long-term run of success on the road. The under is 8-2 in Oakland's divisional games and 5-1 in their games against teams with a winning record. The Mariners have had just 8 overs in their first 25 games this season. Take the UNDER! |
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05-03-16 | Heat v. Raptors OVER 191 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
10* OVER THE TOTAL Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors - Tuesday - We will play OVER in the Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors Game 1 on Tuesday. Let’s get a couple things out of the way quickly. First off we know how the unders have dominated in the playoffs but will buck that trend here and we’ll get to why shortly. Secondly, the Heat have a really strong under record when playing on the road this year. So why do we like over tonight? Value and an over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. These two squared off four times this year and three of the four had posted totals between 187 and 191 but the most recent meeting on March 12th had a number of 203. They combined to score 194 in regulation in the last meeting with Miami shooting a horrendous 37.8% AND Dwyane Wade didn’t play. Because of the factors we previously pointed out, Vegas has put a number on this game that is simply too low. Our predictive math model produced a number of 197 on this game which is the correct number in our opinion, hence the value. In the one regular season meeting that was statistically ‘average’ for both teams these two combined for 202 total points. Miami has favored the under on the road this year with a 17-26 record BUT those games have averaged 195PPG. Toronto has an over record at home of 24-20 this year and those games have averaged 202PPG. Granted these two are really good in defensive efficiency rankings and play a slower tempo but the number has clearly been set too low. BET OVER! |
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05-02-16 | Hawks v. Cavs -7.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. First off I’d like to say this. I’m not a chalk eater but after two really EASY wins the last two days by taking the Spurs and Warriors in their opening round series why wouldn’t I at least consider Cleveland here. We can make the case that the Cavs are the third or fourth best team in the league behind the Spurs and Warrior and maybe OKC and they square off against a Hawks team that isn’t as good as OKC but similar to Portland. Why wouldn’t we lay the points in this game? Not to mention this is simply a ‘bad matchup’ for Atlanta. Yes, that’s right sometimes you have teams that can’t matchup physically against other opponents which I believe is the case for the Hawks. They’ve lost seven straight games to the Cavaliers after being swept in the playoffs last year and then losing all three meetings this season. The reality here is revenge doesn’t work here when you can’t matchup with your opponent. The Cavs have won the last 7 meetings by an average of 12PPG including one game very late in the season when Cleveland was at home favored by -6.5 points and won by 15. In terms of defense these two teams are similar as the Hawks were 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency ratings (DEFF) while Cleveland was 10th. Offensively though the Cavs were much better ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency (OEFF) while the Hawks were 22nd worst. The Cavs are 35-8 SU at home this season with the 3rd best point differential of +8.2PPG which has improved to +11PPG in the post season. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a dog of 6 to +7.5 points this season which tells us they are an overvalued club. The Cavs are playing their best basketball right now and we see another game #1, new series, double digit win tonight. |
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05-01-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -9.5 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
Golden State Warriors (-9.5) over Portland Trailblazers – 2:30PM CT - Play on the Golden State Warriors over the Portland Trailblazers. We can pretty much use some of the same logic that we used yesterday with the Spurs over the Thunder. Today we get the one of the two BEST teams in the NBA at home laying a reasonable number over another team that is coming off a huge series and upset win. We laying 7 points with the Spurs over the Thunder who might be the 3rd best team in the league and will lay this number with a Warriors team that is even with San Antonio and a Blazers team that is worse than OKC. Golden State beat the Blazers on this floor twice this season by 16 and 25 points already and even without Curry they’ll get a double digit victory in Game 1 of this series. Golden State has the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG and are currently 42-2 on their home floor. Portland was not a good road team all season long with a 17-27 SU road record and the 21st WORST road point differential of -4.1PPG. Portland has a nice team that has a bright future but they did get a little lucky in the opening series when both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul went down with injuries. Granted the Warriors don’t have Curry here but other players have stepped up and this ‘TEAM’ continues to roll. Golden State has covered 5 straight at home and will get a blowout win here in the opener. |
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04-30-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
We like San Antonio at home in Game 1 of this series with the OKC Thunder. The Spurs were overshadowed by the Golden State Warriors all season long but their season statistics are just as impressive if not more so in some cases considering how they managed their schedule. The Spurs had the 2nd best overall point differential (+10.6PPG) in the league and home differential of +13.9PPG. They were 40-1 SU at home in the regular season and destroyed Memphis in the first round by 32 and 26 in San Antonio. The Spurs can match up with Durant and Westbrook and limit the Thunders two superstars which is clearly the way to beat OKC. Durant did not shoot it well in the first round series against the Mavs hitting just 36.8% from the field and 26.8% from beyond the arc. Now he'll go up against a Spurs defense that was 1st in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just .99 points per possession. The Spurs are one of the best overall FG% defenses in the league and 3rd overall in 3-point percentage against them by allowing just 33%. It's hard to believe but OKC is the 16th worst 3-point shooting team in the league so don't expect the Thunder to rain 3's in this series. You probably didn't know this either with the way the media hypes the Thunder as shooters and the Spurs as defenders but San Antonio is the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the league behind Golden State at 38.1%. Under-appreciated Kawhi Leonard shot 52.7% in the first round, including 61.1% from beyond the arc. San Antonio is 4-0 in a Game 1 of a series after sweeping the previous series and they've covered 6 of their last 7 Conference Semifinal games. The home team has covered 18 of the last 26 in this series and surprisingly the Thunder were not great underdogs of 7.5 point or less with a 2-6 spread record this season. Lay the points with San Antonio who gets a double digit win. |
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04-29-16 | Heat +109 v. Hornets | Top | 97-90 | Win | 109 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
We are going to take the Miami Heat on the Moneyline over the Charlotte Hornets. After winning the first two games of this series the Heat have been beaten three straight by the Bugs and we don’t think it will be four in a row. The veteran Heat have been pretty good off a loss this season with a 25-12 SU record which included an 8-0 streak to end the regular season in that situation and those eight victories came by an average of 15PPG. In the first two games of the series the Heat shot it ridiculously well but they’ve struggled from the field in three straight which is not a true indication of their team. Miami shot it 47% from the field on the season which was one of the better numbers in the NBA. Charlotte was a little better than average in FG% defense but they aren’t capable of containing this Heat team four games in a row. Law of averages tell us so. We also like the betting trends going on right now with this game with public versus smart money and all indicators tell us Miami is the side to be on. |
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04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
We like the Indiana Pacers at home over the Toronto Raptors tonight. Indiana dominated the last game of this series for the vast majority of the game before a 4th quarter collapse when they managed just 9 points. Despite scoring just 9-points in the 4ht the Pacers still only lost by 3-points. Pacers Paul George has been a beast in this series averaging over 28PPG and he’s the type of player that can carry a team for long stretches of games and in this elimination setting he’ll shine. Toronto just isn’t trustworthy. They’ve struggled in the playoffs the last two years and if it weren’t for their horrendous 4th quarter in the last game they’d be facing playoff extinction here. The telling statistics in this series and difference for Indiana has been their defense. The Pacers had the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA during the regular season allowing opponents to hit just 43.8% of their attempts and in the post season they’ve held the Raptors to that number or below in every game. Toronto is not a very good shooting team either as they ranked 17th in the NBA in FG% or team shooting. Yes, the Raptors are much better overall in terms of offensive efficiency but the Pacers defense finished the regular season ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency rankings and are clearly one of the best in the league. Our predictive math model tells us the Pacers win this game by 7-9 points and we agree. Play ON the Indiana Pacers. |
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04-27-16 | Royals +124 v. Angels | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City Royals Money Line +125 over Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET - We had our eyes on this match-up for quite some time and everything has set up perfectly for this one to get the call as a big play for us. The fact that the Royals have lost two straight games has strengthened this situation because Kansas City has not lost three straight games yet this season! The Royals are 5-2 when off of a loss this season. Kansas City is also 38-26 the past three seasons when they are a small road dog (up to +125) as they are tonight. The Royals are already 3-2 in that role this season and the key to this one setting up so well is the pitching match-up we've had our eyes on. The only reason that Nick Tropeano is in the starting rotation for the Angels is because of the Andrew Heaney injury. Though Tropeano has pitched well so far this season there is reason to believe he runs into trouble here. His first three starts included two starts against two of the AL's worst hitting teams (Seattle and Minnesota) last season and included a start against an Oakland team that had the worst record in the AL last season. Now Tropeano faces the team that won the World Series last year! The Royals are a proud team and are looking to avoid the 3-game sweep at the hands of the Angels. Tropeano is going to face some very focused Kansas City hitters at the plate tonight. The other key to this play, of course, is the Kansas City starter. Chris Young will be toeing the rubber for the Royals tonight and he got back on track in his last start and that was against a solid-hitting Orioles club. Young held the O's to 2 earned runs on 4 hits while striking out 10 in 6 innings versus Baltimore. The big 6'10 right-hander has held the Angels to 4 earned runs in his last two starts against them and both went into the books as quality starts for Young. The Royals came into this series having gone 12-4 against the Angels in their last 16 meetings. After dropping the first two games of this 3-game set, payback is to be expected tonight. We’ll grab the nice underdog odds with the Kansas City Royals on the road on the money line and this one is elevated to a 10* Top Play rating! |
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04-27-16 | Blazers v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
We will grab the points with the LA Clippers at home over the Portland Trailblazers. We've been doing this a loooonnnnggggg time and one thing we've seen over and over again is the game after a superstar gets hurt, other players step up and play well with opportunity to play more. IE: See the Warriors against Houston in their last game with Curry out. Remember it's a pretty fine line that separates good and great players in the NBA and when the reserves get a chance to shine in the spotlight they typically respond. The Clippers played half of the season without Blake Griffin so they'll fill that void tonight. The bigger loss is PG Chris Paul who the pick and roll offense ran through BUT the Clippers prepared for this scenario by putting in a true motion offense this season in case Paul went down. Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford (perennial 6th man of the year) and JJ Redick will have to step up in his absence and we feel they're up for the task. Let's not forget the Blazers were not a good road team this season with a 16-27 SU away record and a negative road differential of -4.8PPG. When playing good teams or clubs with winning records on the road this year the Blazers were just 9-13 ATS in the regular season. The Clippers were -8.5 points at home in game two of this series and are now a home underdog here? No way! Take the points with the LA Clippers and watch the back-ups get it done. |
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04-26-16 | Celtics +7 v. Hawks | Top | 83-110 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS: Grab the points with the Boston Celtics tonight over the Atlanta Hawks. This has been a great series so far and should go a full 7 games before an eventual winner is decided. After losing the first two games of the series, Celtics head coach Brad Stevens, made the necessary adjustments and the C's won the next two games to even things up at 2 games apiece. Three of the four games have been tightly contested with decisions by 9 points in overtime, 8 points and 1 point. The lone big win was by Atlanta at home in Game #2 when the Celtics scored just 7 points in the first quarter which is clearly an anomaly. We are obviously getting value with the spread here too as the line on the opening game of this series was Atlanta favored by -5.5 points but now they are laying 7. The Raptors had one of the better home point differentials in the league at home of +6.6PPG during the regular season but Boston had the 8th best road differential of +.9PPG. These two teams were both top 5 in terms of defensive efficiency ratings but the Celtics were far superior in offensive efficiency ranking 10th compared to Atlanta's 22nd rankings. Great teams find a way to bounce back after a loss but that's not the case with the Hawks who are 0-5 ATS their last five when coming off a beat. |
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04-25-16 | Heat v. Hornets UNDER 195.5 | Top | 85-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
We will play UNDER in the Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets game. In the first two games of the this series these two teams combined for 218 and 214 total points in Miami but a large reason both were high scoring was because of how well the Heat shot it. The Heat shot 57.8 percent in the pair of blowout home wins including 52.9% from 3-point range, but on the road in Game #3 they hit just 34.2% from the field. In the first two games of the series the pace of play was below the league average as they attempted just 150 and 165 field goal (league ave 169) but because of the Heats success shooting both games went over the number. In the third game they combined for 169 FG attempts but the shooting percentages returned to normal and the game stayed WAY below the number of 196.5 with 176 total points. We expect a similar pace and shooting performance tonight as games played on this floor between these two teams have generally been lower scoring (176, 193, 180 and 154 last 4 here). Miami is one of the slower paced road teams (4th slowest) in the league at 93.4 possession per game and they have 6th best road efficiency defense in the NBA allowing just 1.052 points per. Charlotte has the 6th best home efficiency defense in the league and is barely above average in the league in pace of play at home. The under has cased 20 of the last 26 on this court when these two clubs have faced off and we expect another game under 190 total points tonight. |
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04-24-16 | Warriors -9 v. Rockets | Top | 121-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* Golden State Warriors (-9) over Houston Rockets Game 4 Sunday 3:35PM ET Golden State is in Houston to face the Rockets in Game #4 today and should get a lift with the return of league MVP Steph Curry to the lineup. Without Curry the Warriors were able to beat the Rockets at home by 9 in Game 2 but then lost Game 3 by 1 in Houston. Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating of all the playoff teams (21st) and they allow a whopping 106.3PPG. The Warriors were 34-7 on the road this season with a point differential of +7.1PPG which was second best in the NBA behind only San Antonio. Houston was below average in the league in home differentials and were 23-18 on their home court. The Warriors shoot over 48% as a team on the road whereas the Rockets allow foes to hit 47% of their FG attempts in Houston. Golden State has covered 5 of the last seven and are 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss. It's an inflated number but we still like the Warriors here by double digits. |
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04-23-16 | Dodgers -130 v. Rockies | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line -130 over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a very reasonable price to grab the superior team with the superior pitcher in this match-up. The Dodgers lost last night as they blew a late lead but they are 4-2 this season (and 91-55 the last 3 seasons) when they are off of a loss. As a road favorite of -125 to -150, Los Angeles has gone 3-1 this season. The Dodgers are also 7-4 in night games. Kenta Maeda will be toeing the rubber for the Dodgers tonight and he's been fantastic so far this season. He is not a typical "rookie" considering all his experience in Japan before coming to MLB. That said, we expect Maeda's early season success to continue even at Coors Field. He'll be opposed by the Dodgers Tyler Chatwood. Though Chatwood is off of a strong start he got hit hard in his only home start this season. Chatwood allowed 5 earned runs on 11 hits (including 2 homers) in his only start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Chatwood has been hit hard at Coors Field throughout his injury-plagued career. The Rockies bullpen has a 6.84 ERA in home games so far this season while the Dodgers bullpen has a solid 3.53 ERA on the season so far. The Dodgers had won 6 of 8 before yesterday's loss. The Rockies had lost 3 of 5 before yesterday's win. The Rockies are 59-80 when off of a win and we look for the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and better overall lineup to lead the way to victory today. We’ll grab the nice small favorite odds with the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road on the money line and this one is elevated to a 10* Top Play rating! |
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04-23-16 | Raptors v. Pacers +1.5 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Toronto, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET We’re going to take the Indiana Pacers plus the points over Toronto and expect an even 2-2 series after today. Indiana has the advantage defensively with one of the best efficiency defenses in the league and will have to contain the Raptors offensively. The Pacers have rarely been home underdogs this entire season and when they have been it’s mainly been the powerhouse teams of the West. Meaning the value clearly lies with Indiana at home in a must win situation. Much has been made of Toronto’s poor playoff success the past few years and even after winning the last two games we’re not about to trust them in this setting. The Pacers have done well when coming off a SU loss by covering 8 of their last eleven in this situation and the underdog has cashed 4 of the last five in this rivalry. Paul George and Monte Ellis will carry Indiana to a home win and even this series up. |
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04-22-16 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 200 | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
UNDER 200 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons - 6PM CT - We play UNDER in the Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons game #3. In Game #1 the Pistons shot well above their season averages by making over 50% of their field goal attempts overall and nearly 52% from 3-point range. Cleveland shot 44.3% overall and made 12 of 35 3's for 34.3%. Combined the two teams attempted 161 field goal attempts. In Game #2 the numbers for each team basically flipped with the Cavs having the hot shooting night by hitting 50% from the field and by going 20 of 38 from the 3-point line for 52.6%. Detroit shot 43.6% as a team from the field. The total field goal attempts for both teams was 158. The reason we mention the field goal attempts is that the league average per game is 169 and in both games of this series they've combined for less shots than that number. Less shot means less scoring, unless of course teams shoot extremely well. We expect the defensive intensity to go up dramatically tonight as this series is starting to get a little 'chippy' by both clubs. These two teams were both in the top 12 in defensive efficiency ratings allowing less than 1.055 points per possession. Our math model in this situation projects a total of 195 or less in this game and we agree. Bet UNDER |
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04-21-16 | Warriors -5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-97 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: If you've followed our picks for any length of time you've heard us mention 'value' a lot when it come to the pointspread. Tonight is one of those cases as we look at the three NBA games on the docket. Golden State travels to Houston to face the Rockets in Game #3 tonight without Steph Curry and are favored by less than 6-points or two possessions. Yes, it's the 'must win' game for Houston to survive but let's look at it this way. The Warriors are clearly one of the top two teams in the league and better in most every category than Oklahoma City who is laying MORE points in Dallas whereas the Mavs are better than the Rockets. Granted, the Thunder are off a loss but there is no way this line should be as low as it is tonight. Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating of all the playoff teams (21st) and when you watch James Harden play it's obvious why. Harden and the Rockets are selfish and more concerned about their own personal gains and popularity than they are winning championships. That's why we don't think this 'must win' game means as much to them as the Warriors who are the epitome of a great 'team'. The Warriors were 34-7 on the road this season with a point differential of +7.1PPG which was second best in the NBA behind only San Antonio. Houston was below average in the league in home differentials and were 23-18 on their home court. Despite missing Curry in Game #2 the Warriors were still able to win by 9-points as Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston and Draymond Green all stepped up in his absence. The Warriors shoot over 48% as a team on the road whereas the Rockets allow foes to hit 47% of their FG attempts in Houston. Golden State has covered 5 of the last six here and are loaded with enough talent to beat a bad Rockets team that lacks chemistry. Lay it! |
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04-21-16 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants game. There have been two straight pitchers duels in this series after yesterday's 2-1 Diamondbacks win but the first game in this series was a high-scoring match-up and that is how we expect this four game series to wrap up today. In the first game in this series it was a 9-7 Arizona win. The Diamondbacks have won four straight road games so the hitters are stepping into the batters box with plenty of confidence. Today Arizona's lineup faces the Giants Johnny Cueto. The San Francisco right-hander is still getting use to his new home mound and he got crushed for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in 7 innings of work in his only home start this season. In his two most recent starts against Arizona, Cueto has given up 7 earned runs on 16 hits in less than 12 innings of work. The news is not all bad if you're a San Francisco fan however. The Giants should enjoy success at the plate against Shelby Miller of the Diamondbacks. The Arizona right-hander injured his right hand in his last start and had to exit early. His first two starts this season also did not go well. Miller has allowed 5 homers in less than 13 innings on the mound this season. Miller went 1-12 after the All Star Break last season and he was quite hittable in spring training this year too. It seems he's carried over his struggles from the second half right into the new season as well. With the Giants looking to avoid the sweep, look for their bats to do plenty of damage this afternoon on a day when the wind is expected to be blowing out and overcast skies are expected which means shadows should not be an issues for the hitters in San Francisco today. Take the OVER! |
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04-20-16 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 199 | Top | 103-115 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
Tonight we play UNDER in the Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat game #2. These two teams combined for 214 total points in the opener as the Heat drubbed the Hornets 123-91. Miami scored a ridiculous 41 points in the opening quarter and we don't feel they can do that again versus a Hornets team that will be more prepared tonight. Miami was one of the better shooting teams in the league this season but they shot 57.6% in the opener which is drastically higher than their season average of 47%. Charlotte has one of the top 8 defenses in the NBA in terms of efficiency ratings and they allowed just 100.7PPG on the year which was 9th best. Miami's defense is also very good as they give up just 98.4PPG and have the 9th best efficiency defense allowing just 1.043 points per possession. Then we factor in the tempo or pace of play and it sets up to be a low scoring game. Miami is the 6th slowest team in the league and Charlotte is average or 15th. In Game #1 these two teams combined for just 150 field goal attempts which is WAY lower than the league average per game of 169. The NBA average points scored per game this season is 204.8PPG which is barely higher than tonight's total on a game that figures to feature considerably less field goal attempts against two top 10 defensive units. Not to mention that one team gave up 123 so expect a much better effort on that end of the floor from Charlotte. Neither team breaks 95 points tonight. Both teams have a strong history of staying under the number when playing on two days rest also. BET UNDER! |
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04-19-16 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 187 | Top | 68-94 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Tonight we play OVER in the Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs Game #2 Tuesday. The Spurs put a beatdown on the Grizzlies in Game 1 106-74 for a total of just 180 points which stayed below the set number by Vegas of 188.5. Now the oddsmakers have adjusted the Total down on tonight’s game and the value clearly lies with the ‘OVER’. Memphis shot just 39.2% as a team in the opener (ssn ave 44%) and had two quarters of 14 or less points which is obviously irregular stats for a playoff team. Combined the two teams attempted just 19 free throws and we expect that number to go up dramatically tonight as the intensity level goes up. In the three previous meetings between these clubs they had combined for 186, 214 and 188 points. Looking at the Spurs entire schedule this season we see just 4 games where Vegas had posted a Total less than tonight’s number. Looking at Memphis we find that the Grizz and their opponent have scored more than tonight’s Total in 18 of their last twenty games. Spurs home games averaged 196PPG this season which is the same average of as the Grizzlies road games. The bet here is OVER the Total. BEST OF LUCK TONIGHT! 15-3 NBA RUN CONTINUES! |
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04-19-16 | Celtics v. Hawks OVER 205.5 | Top | 72-89 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
We will play OVER in the Celtics vs. Hawks Game #2 on Tuesday. In the opener these two teams combined for 203 total points but they should have scored much more in that game as they combined for 188 field goal attempts in that game (league average is 169 per game). Both teams had a bad night shooting. Boston shot just 36.3% overall from the field and was 11 of 35 from beyond the arc for 31.4%. Atlanta was just 35 of 86 from the field for the night overall and a horrendous 5 of 26 from the 3-point line. On the season the C’s shot just under 44% as a team while the Hawks hit just under 46% during the regular season. In the last three regular season meetings these two teams combined for 225, 210 and 218 total points which are more like the number we expect to see tonight. Remember these two teams like to play ‘fast’ as both rank in the top 8 of the NBA in pace of play by averaging over 97 possessions per game. We predict a much better shooting night for both teams and know they’ll play at a faster pace so this game should go ‘OVER’ the number rather easily. BET OVER! Let's keep the 15-3 NBA HOT STREAK rolling! Best of luck! |
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04-18-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 87-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Toronto Raptors (-7.5) over Indiana Pacers, Monday, Game #2 7PM ET - We lost with the Raptors in the opener of this series but have to come right back here with a play on them in Game #2. As we stated in our first analysis the Raptors have the 5th best overall point differential in the NBA and 5th best number at home of +6.6PPG where they were 32-9 SU for the regular season. The big difference between these two clubs is on the offensive end where the Raps ranked 5th in offensive efficiency ratings while the Pacers were 24th. Indiana had a losing road record this season of 19-22 SU and they lost the two regular season meeting here by 7 and 13 points respectively before their 10-point win in the opener. The Pacers were just .500 ATS on the road against teams with winning records while the Raptors were 16-4 ATS at home against winning teams. We look for irregular stats in games and two obvious ones were how well Indiana shot from beyond the arc in Game 1 and how many turnovers the Raptors had, along with how poorly Toronto shot. Indiana hit 11 of 21 3-pointers in the first game of the series for 52.4% which is much higher than their season average of 35.3%. Toronto on the other had shot just 38% overall in the game which was well below their season average or 45%. Lastly, the Raptors turned the ball over 20 times in Game #1 which was really odd considering they were 5th in the NBA in NOT turning it over this season at just 13.2 TO's per game. Toronto was +14 in rebounds and outscored the Pacers by 16-points in the paint which are favorable signs for tonight. Toronto has been very good off a loss this year with a 17-9 SU overall record, 9-2 SU when at home off an 'L' and they've covered 4 straight in that role. Indiana was 12-15 ATS this season on the road off a win and we would expect a letdown here after their upset win in Game 1. Yes, we know the Raptors struggles in the post season but the only way to be this game tonight is by taking the home team with revenge and a do-or-die situation. Lay it. |
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04-17-16 | Blazers v. Clippers -8 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 58 h 8 m | Show |
LA Clippers (-8) over Portland Trailblazers, Sun 9:35PM CT - We like the LA Clippers over the Portland Trailblazers in Game 1 on Sunday. If you read our Efficiency differential article on predicting the NBA Champion this year you’ll know that the Clippers, statistically, are one of a handful of teams that can win it all this year. LA is 7th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency which is much better than the Blazers 6th (OEFF) and 22nd (DEFF) rankings. The Clippers quietly went about their business this season and finished with the 6th best overall point differential (+4.3PPG) and 5th best home point differential of +6.9PPG. LA was 29-12 SU at home this season whereas the Blazers were a poor 16-25 SU on the road. Of all the playoff teams the Blazers have the second worst road point differential of minus -4.1PPG which was 21st worst in the entire NBA. Of all the playoff teams only Memphis has a worst road point differential but they were gutted by injuries all season long. The Clippers won 3 of the four season meetings with the Blazers with those three victories coming by an average of 9PPG. Portland ended the regular season on an 0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS stretch on the road against playoff teams while the Clippers closed the season with a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS mark their last four at home against similar clubs. Dynamically, the Clippers can play ‘small ball’ with the Blazers which makes this a very favorable first round matchup for them. Lay the points with the LA Clippers. |
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04-16-16 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9.5 Runs - Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers, Saturday at 8:05 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers game. With yesterday's 11-5 win Orioles games have gone over the total in four of the last five. Baltimore is averaging 6.8 runs per game in their road games this season. The Rangers offense started a little slow this season but, with yesterday's result, Texas has scored at least 5 runs in 4 of its last 5 games. The Rangers have recorded four overs in their last five games. The Texas bullpen continues to struggle and this is particularly true at home where the Rangers pen has compiled a 13.50 ERA on the young season. Texas starter Colby Lewis has had the luxury of facing the Mariners lineup in his first two starts this season but now faces a much tougher test with the red hot Orioles today. Lewis has a history of struggles (despite a good W-L record) in his home starts. He has a 5.04 ERA in his last 18 starts in Arlington. Lewis has a 5.77 ERA against the Orioles in 7 career starts. Yovani Gallardo returns to face his former team as the O's starter tonight. He will feel some extra pressure facing his former team and, after having success against the light-hitting Twins in his first start this season, Gallardo was quickly given a reality check when he faced the Red Sox in his next start. The Orioles righty allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work and a similar result can be expected today. The over is 4-1 in Rangers home games and 4-1 in Orioles road games so far this season. More of the same on Saturday. Take the OVER! |
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04-16-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -5 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
Atlanta Hawks (-4.5) over Boston Celtics, Sat 6PM CT - We will open the Playoffs with a best bet on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the visiting Boston Celtics. In some games/series there are teams that simply don’t match up with their opponent and we feel that’s the case here. The Hawks won 3 of the four meetings during the regular season including a win on this court last week 118-107 as a -5.5-point favorite. Atlanta has shot the ball EXTREMELY well against the Celtics by hitting over 52%, 46.6% and 56.2% in their last three meetings along with outrebounding them by 12 total rebounds. The telling stat from those three games though is points in the paint as the Hawks have outscored Boston from the lane by 46 total points in those three contests. That all ties into the season numbers with the Hawks having the 11th best team field goal percentage in the league and Boston having the 24th. Atlanta holds decided advantages shooting the basketball and defending shooters overall and at home compared to Boston’s season averages. The Hawks were 27-14 SU at home this year with a positive point differential of +5.9PPG compared to the Celtics 20-21 SU road record and point differential of +.9PPG. The Celtics are on a current 2-9 SU and ATS record on the road against Playoff teams and are just 2-12 ATS their last 14 on the road against teams with a .600 or better home winning percentage. Looking at the Hawks we find they are 8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS at home their last 11 to close the regular season against Playoff teams. As a favorite priced between 5 and 7.5-points the Hawks have a solid 13-6 ATS record and we expect a big home win here. |
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04-13-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 106 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 11.5 Runs - San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - We will play OVER in the San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies game. Snow in Denver in mid-April is not uncommon at all. That said, the fact that this is an evening game with a game-time temperature near 70 degrees and the wind blowing out will certainly have the hitters in "attack mode" in this one. Yesterday the Giants scored 7 runs but the Rockies hitters ended up frustrated as Jeff Samardzija had a rare strong start. Colorado's powerful lineup can take out some of that frustration on Jake Peavy tonight. The veteran right-hander allowed 4 earned runs on 10 hits in only 5 innings of work in his season opening start. That does not bode well for Peavy now taking the mound in a hitter-friendly venue considering that his first start was at pitcher-friendly AT & T Park. Peavy did face the Rockies twice late last season and he gave up a pair of homers. He also looked very hittable against the Dodgers last week. Rockies offense should roll in this one but their pitching is a major question mark. Not only has the Colorado bullpen been awful early this season, starting pitcher Jordan Lyles was awful in his first start and that came against light-hitting San Diego. Things won't get any easier for Lyles against the Giants. In his five career starts against San Francisco, Lyles has a 5.81 ERA. He'll be facing a Giants lineup that is expected to get a boost with the return of Buster Posey tonight. Hitters park and a game that should be a slug-fest. This one earns the 10* Rating. Take the OVER! |
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04-13-16 | Heat v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
Tonight we will play on the Boston Celtics at home minus the points over the Miami Heat. This is a solid situation for the Celts as they are coming off a rare home loss while the Heat are off a straight up road win. Boston is 10-5 SU at home this season off a loss while the Heat are just 10-12 SU away off a win. Both teams need to win for a better position in the playoffs so the game has plenty of meaning for both sides. Boston has the 9th most home wins in the NBA this season and a home point differential of +5.5PPG which is 11th best in the league. Miami has a solid road record at 20-20 SU but in their last 13 road contests they have 6 wins and just two of those were against winning teams. The Heat have just one spread win their last 6 away from home. Miami is also off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in a four night span while Boston is rested. The Heat are 8-8 SU and ATS this season when playing without rest but 0-4 ATS their last four in that situation. The Celtics have covered 14 of the last eighteen meetings at home over Miami including a 12 point win in late February. Lay the points with Boston. |
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04-12-16 | Heat v. Pistons UNDER 201 | Top | 99-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
#503/504 UNDER 201 Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons - 6:30PM CT - We will play UNDER in the Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons game. Both teams are in the bottom 11 of the league in pace of play and both prefer a slower tempo. This game will be very similar to a playoff game as both teams are fighting for a better playoff position. The other nice factor that works for us here is the fact that both teams are also in the top 11 in the league in defensive efficiency rating. These same two teams faced off recently in Miami and they combined for just 196 total points with a combined 164 field goal attempts which is below the league average of 169. This three games this season between these two clubs have all resulted in under's and none of the games have ended with more than the last games 196 points. We like a lower scoring game here and will play UNDER the total. |
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04-12-16 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 4:10 PM ET - We will play UNDER in the Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers game. Patrick Corbin had a fantastic spring training this year. Undefeated in his five starts and he compiled a 1.71 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .222 batting average. Corbin was done in a bit by the home run ball in his first start this season but he faced the high powered Rockies and Chase Field is certainly a hitter-friendly venue. Tuesday afternoon Corbin will be "rocking and firing" at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Corbin is healthy again and this is already apparent in the way he's been throwing the ball. The Dodgers series-closing game at San Francisco went over the total but only 1 of LA's 5 prior games went over. The Diamondbacks series with the Cubs closed with an over but 3 of their previous 4 games were unders. The Dodgers will have Kenta Maeda on the mound and his first start showed signs that he is ready to live up to the hype. He dominated in that road outing and now gets extra recognition by making the start in the Dodgers home opener for this season. Maeda will be ready as the Japan native is not a true "rookie" though he is a rookie to MLB. Maeda celebrated his 28th birthday yesterday. The under is 42-31 in Diamondbacks games as a road dog of 125 to 175. When playing after an off day, Arizona was 21-12 to the under the past two seasons. Diamondbacks day games are on a 56-39 under run. Pitchers park and a game that should be a pitchers duel. This one earns the 10* Rating. Take the UNDER! |
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04-11-16 | Hawks v. Cavs OVER 202 | Top | 94-109 | Win | 101 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
Tonight we play OVER in the Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers game. This is a little contrarian for us as we typically lean towards 'under' on games like this but this is an exception. There is some value in the line tonight as these two teams just me on April 1st and Vegas posted a Total of 206 on that game. It ended up going over the number BUT it took OT to get there. At the end of the 4th quarter in that game these two teams combined for just 192 points but there were some abnormal stats in that game. Both teams shot 40% or worse which is certainly not the 'norm' as these two teams are both in the top 11 of the NBA in team field goal percentage above 45.8%. The Hawks have scored 101 or more points offensively in 12 of their last fourteen games while the Cavs have scored 100+ in eight straight games and 12 of their last thirteen. The Cavaliers score their points by being highly efficient on the offensive end of the floor as they rank 3rd in the NBA in OEFF with a 1.109 points per possession average. The Hawks aren't as efficient offensively but they get it done by playing faster as they rank 8th in pace of play. The 'over' has cashed 4 straight in the series and 6 straight in Cleveland. Hawks 'over' when playing away against a winning team while Cavs 'over' 7-1 L8 at home versus teams with above .500 road record. It all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight. BET OVER! |
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04-09-16 | Wolves v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
We will lay the points with Portland over Minnesota. Portland still has motivation to win this game as they desperately want the 5 seed in the West to avoid the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs so they won’t just rest starters here. Minnesota is coming off a pair of wins over Golden State which was easily their biggest win of the season, then won in Sacramento when the Kings decided to ‘rest’ their two best players in Cousins and Rondo. So we’re not impressed with the Wolves second win and expect a letdown here with their focus being on winning their last two home games. At first glance you might think the line is over-inflated here but really it’s not as bad as you think. The horrible Kings were laying -5.5 points (before announcing injuries) against the Wolves and Portland was a -6.5 point favorite the last time they faced the Wolves. Portland has the 8th best home point differential in the NBA this season at +5.9PPG and they’ve WON 16 of their last 17 at home with a large portion of those wins coming against playoff caliber teams including Golden State (won by 32), Oklahoma City (won by 5), Miami (won by 17), Boston (+7) and Dallas (+6). Minnesota has a negative point differential of -3.3PPG on the road this year and despite their last two wins they have allowed their last 5 opponents to hit over 47% of their field goal attempts so expect a good shooting Portland team to take advantage. Minny is just 7-13 SU this year off a win and has just 1 spread cover their last 8 trips to Portland. We expect a double digit win by the host Blazers. |
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04-08-16 | Astros -123 v. Brewers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros Money Line -125 over Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a very reasonable price to grab the superior team with the superior pitcher in this match-up. The added bonus is getting the Astros off of rare back to back losses and being able to fade the Brewers off a win as there is unlikely to be many winning streaks for Milwaukee this season. The Brewers send Chase Anderson to the hill. He's a new Brewer as they just picked him in late January from Arizona. He could be in for a tough stretch early this season as the long ball was an issue for him this spring. Anderson now has to face an Astros lineup that was one of the top home run hitting teams in the majors last year. Houston has already scored at least 5 runs in all three of their games this season while the Brewers have only scored a total of 8 runs in their three games. The Astros production was somewhat limited by the chilly conditions in the Bronx but now we look for their bats to really come alive in this game at Miller Park as the roof will be closed due to the cold (and sometimes snowy) weather still occurring in Milwaukee right now. Anderson had a 5.08 ERA after the All Star break last season and seems to have carried those struggles right into this year as he had bouts of ineffectiveness in Spring Training. The Astros have Feldman getting the start on the bump tonight and he wrapped up last season with a 2.79 ERA in his final eight starts of the year. After a solid spring training as well, we expect him to have plenty of success tonight against a Brewers team that has struggled to plate runs early this season. Houston went 16-4 in inter-league games last season. Milwaukee went 49-74 against right-handed starters last year. We’ll grab the nice small favorite odds with Houston on the road on the money line as this one is elevated to a 10* rating! |
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04-07-16 | Spurs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
We love the Golden State Warriors in this situation and will play on them here minus the points over the visiting San Antonio Spurs. Golden State is coming off a DISAPPOINTING overtime home loss to the T'Wolves and have now lost 2 of 3 at home which has everyone questioning them. Tonight they bounce back off that loss and prove a point with a big win over the Spurs. GST is a perfect 8-0 SU when coming off a loss this year, 4-0 at home and the 8 wins have come by an average of 15PPG. The Warriors are 22-6 SU the past two seasons off a loss for a winning percentage of 79%. San Antonio has lost 2 of their last four road games and we feel this game won't have the same importance for them as it will Golden State. The Spurs are sandbagging for the post season and will focus on beating the Warriors at home next week and then in the post season. The last time these two teams met on this floor the Warriors were favored by -4.5 points and won by 30. San Antonio is perfect at home this season with all 12 losses coming on the road. The Warriors are 85-6 SU the past two seasons at home while the Spurs are just 8-12 SU as a road pooch in that same time. This really comes down to the Warriors being motivated and the Spurs are not. Lay the points with Golden State. |
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04-06-16 | Nets v. Wizards OVER 212 | Top | 103-121 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
The pace of play dictates an OVER bet in this game and we expect 220+ points to be scored here. The Nets have struggled to score lately but they've played faster than normal 97.1 possessions per game their last five games (10th fastest) compared to their season average of 95 which is 21st slowest. In their last five games the Nets have the worst defense in the NBA allowing an average of 113.4PPG on 1.168 points per possession. Tonight they face a Wizards team that is rested and loves to play fast. Washington is the 5th fastest paced team in the league at 98.3 possessions per game and average 103.5PPG which is the 10th best number in the league. The Wiz are an 'average' team in terms of defensive efficiency numbers but below average in points allowed per game giving up 104.6PPG which is 10th worst. Washington is fighting for a playoff spot and are going to do what they do best and that's play transition basketball. We expect a very high scoring game here. Bet OVER! |
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04-05-16 | Pistons v. Heat UNDER 201.5 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
#703/704 UNDER Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat 6:35PM CT - We will play UNDER in the Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat game. We like the spot and the number here and our math model projects a total of 192 points on this game. Miami is coming off a 3 game West coast road trip and now face another team in the East jockeying for playoff positioning. The Heat sit in the 5th spot in the East and are trying to move up to 4th for home court in round 1 of the playoffs. Detroit is battling just to get into the post season and teams in this situation usually play a closer to the vest and more deliberately. Miami has recently played in games with end results of 203, 218, 202 (OT) and 209 but those four games were against horrible defensive efficiency teams (Portland, Sacramento, Lakers and Brooklyn) that all rank in the bottom 11 worst in the NBA. Those team also rank in 19th or worst in opponents points allowed per game. Now the Heat face a Pistons team that is 11th in points allowed per game and 10th in defensive efficiency. The Pistons have played in four straight unders against other playoff bound teams much like Miami. They totaled 184 with Chicago, 187 with Dallas, 170 with the Thunder and 207 with Atlanta. In the first two meetings of the season between these clubs they produced total points of 185 two times. These two team both prefer a slower tempo and we can't see either team reaching 100 tonight. Historically speaking the 'under' has cashed 19 of the last 26 meetings in Miami. Bet UNDER! |
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04-03-16 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 196 | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
#517/518 UNDER 196 Indiana Pacers @ NY Knicks – 6:30PM CT - We will play UNDER in the Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks game. We don’t expect either team to get to 100 points in this game and expect less than 190 total points. On the season the Pacers have the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA allowing just 1.028 points per possession. New York will clearly have problems scoring here against this defense as they have the 21st least efficient offense in the NBA not to mention they are the 4th slowest team in the league in terms of pace. Offensively the Knicks have struggled to score points as they’ve managed 94 or more points in just three of their last ten games. In fact, 9 of those last ten games all stayed below the total. Indiana has had their own offensive problems of late with an ‘under’ run of 7 and 3 their last ten games. The Pacers are 5-0 under their last five games when playing without rest which is the case today as they come off a game yesterday versus Philly. The under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings overall and 5 of the last six in New York. Expect a low scoring game here today. |
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04-02-16 | Villanova v. Oklahoma UNDER 146 | Top | 95-51 | Push | 0 | 119 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNDER 146 Points - Oklahoma vs Villanova, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET We think the defenses will have a huge advantage here. First of all, both of these defenses are very good. They each rank in the top 13 nationally in defensive efficiency. These two have played 8 games combined thus far in the NCAA tourney and have allowed only one team to reach 70 points. Five of those eight opponents ranked in the top 45 nationally in offensive efficiency including 3 in the top 12 (Kansas, Miami FL, and Oregon). NRG Stadium in Houston is hardly a shooter’s paradise. That’s bad news for these two teams who BOTH rely heavily on making shots from beyond the arc. 33% of Villanova’s points come from 3-point land and 39% of Oklahoma’s come from deep. This is a massive stadium that seats almost 72,000 people. The floor is raised and the back drop for shooting is terrible. One assistant coach who has played here in the past described it as “a court floating in the great abyss” because of the wide open feel. The last Final 4 here was in 2011. The final scores of those 3 games were 56-55, 70-62, and 53-41 which was the National Championship game. In that game the winner, UConn, shot just 34% while the loser, Butler, hit a whopping 19% of their shots. More recently, the South Regional was held here just last year. The four teams involved (Duke, UCLA, Utah, and Gonzaga) combined to shoot 26% from beyond the arc in the three games. All four were very solid 3-point shooting teams ranking in the top 75 nationally. The scores of those 3 games last year were 63-57, 66-52, and 74-62. You get the point. Since NRG Stadium opened in 2002, there have been 30 college teams that have played here. Those teams have combined to shoot only 32% from 3-point land. To give you a better perspective of that number, if a team shot 32% for the season this year, they would rank 280th out of 351 teams. Top notch defenses combined with teams that rely on the deep ball = a low scoring game here. Take the UNDER! |
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04-02-16 | Villanova -135 v. Oklahoma | Top | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 79 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Villanova -135 on the money line over Oklahoma, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET Nova is simply the better team right now on our opinion. They have some extra motivation as well as their worst performance of the year, by far, was in early December in Hawaii when they lost by 23 points to this Oklahoma team. This solid shooting Wildcat team hit only 31% of their shots for the game and just 12% from beyond the arc. The first number was a season low and the 2nd was their next to worst performance from 3 this season. Villanova was actually favored by 5 in that game. This team is lightyears better than they were at that point. They have a number of players that can carry them offensively with 5 players basically averaging 10 or more PPG. Oklahoma relies very heavily on Buddy Hield to put points on the board (he’s scored over 36% of the Sooners points in the NCAA Tourney) and if he is off this team is in trouble. We think that will be the case on Saturday. This venue, NRG Stadium, is very tough on shooters. It’s a gigantic stadium with a terrible backdrop for shooting. Three point shooters are affected big time and that’s where Hield and Oklahoma live and die. They rely more on the 3-point shot than any other team remaining with 39% of their points coming from deep. Problem is, the 30 teams that have played in this venue have only combined to shoot 32% from deep. That’s a big problem for Oklahoma who’s already attempted 75 three’s in their last 3 games! Nova also likes to shoot the 3 but they’ve adjusted some in the Big Dance and pushed the ball inside the arc as well. The Wildcats have attempted a full 24 fewer 3 points shots than the Sooners over the last 3 games. Villanova ranks higher in offensive efficiency, higher in defensive efficiency, they turn teams over at a much higher rate, and they are better from the FT line hitting over 78% as a team. The Cats just beat the #1 overall seed in the Dance handing a red hot Kansas team a loss to get to the final 4. We think they win here and move onto the National Championship game on Monday Night. |
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04-01-16 | Wizards -8 v. Suns | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Play on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Phoenix Suns. In wake of a really bad outing we expect the Wizards to bounce back here with their Playoff lives on the line. Washington is 3 games behind the 8th place Pacers and need this win in the worst way. Phoenix has just 20 wins on the season which makes them the 3rd worst team in the NBA. If they stay in this position they have a much better shot at getting a top 3 pick in the lottery which is critical when you look at the class declaring for the draft. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price with this road favorite but the Wiz were just favored by 9 over the Lakers in L.A. and won by 13 so it's not totally out of line. The Suns have the 3rd worst overall point differential in the NBA at -7.3PPG, 4th worst defensive efficiency rating and 3rd to last offensive efficiency number. Washington is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 45.8% and they should take advantage of a Suns defense that has one of the worst shooting percentage D's in the NBA. On the flip side the Suns won't take advantage of the Wizards defense as they are one of the worst shooting teams in the league. Phoenix has shot 41.9 percent while averaging 97.9 points over its last eight games and that won't get it done against a Wizards team that can score points (103.4PPG - 10th best in NBA). |
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03-29-16 | BYU v. Valparaiso -1.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Valparaiso -1.5 over BYU, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET We like Valpo at this low number. We have the Crusaders ranked as the better team with the much better defense. Their defense ranks 8th nationally in adjusted efficiency defense and 6th in the nation in eFG% defense. They allow just 62 PPG on 38% shooting. To get here, Valpo had to play a team that finished 2 games ahead of BYU in the WCC, St Marys, and beat them by 16 points. They held St Marys, who entered the game as the #1 shooting team in the nation, to just 44 points. The Crusaders are also the better rebounding team with a margin of +10 per game on the season. They are a top 10 defensive rebounding team so don’t expect BYU to get many 2nd chances. BYU loves to run & gun. They are one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. Valpo is not. Expect the Crusaders to slow this game down and make it a half court affair which is definitely not their offensive strength. The first 3 teams BYU played to get here (UAB, Va Tech, and Creighton) all were fine running with them which played right into their strength. Now they have to play a team that won’t do that which will be a problem in our opinion. Valpo was a great road team this year going 12-4 in true away games. Lastly, this is a much tougher trip for BYU. Going west to east can be very difficult. The furthest trip east that BYU took this year was to Boulder, Colorado. This is a 2,000 mile trip for the Cougs and just 700 for Valpo. Don’t discount that. Valparaiso was the best team in the Horizon by a mile all season long. Once the NIT began, they were out to make a statement that they should have been in the NCAA. They’ve won their first 3 games in the NIT by double digits. They are one of the most experienced teams in the nation (3 seniors & 2 juniors in the starting line up) and we’ll call for a win here as Valpo gets to the NIT Finals. |
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03-27-16 | Notre Dame +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 74-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +9.5 over North Carolina, Sunday at 8:45 PM ET The value here is absolutely on the Irish. These two played just a few weeks ago in the ACC tourney and UNC was favored by 7 on a neutral court (Washington DC). Now because of that result – Heels won 78-47 – and UNC performance vs Indiana on Friday night – Heels won 101-86 – this line is nearly 3 points higher than it was then. A few things…The result in the ACC tourney gives Notre Dame extra motivation here. The players talked about a that embarrassment and how they wouldn’t get another shot at North Carolina until next season. “What else can you ask for?” said Irish junior guard Steve Vasturia. “Nobody as a competitor or a player wants to get smoked out of the gym like that.” A normally very good shooting team, Notre Dame shot just 30% in that game and just 26% from beyond the arc. We expect them to shoot much better here. They were also killed on the boards and while UNC is a great rebounding team, you can bet ND will put their full focus on the glass. These two met one other time this season, Notre Dame won by 4 and they were only -1 on the boards in that game so they have proven they can get it done. UNC is an average shooting team. They are one of the worst shooting teams from beyond the arc (284th nationally). However, everyone watch the Heels hit 52% of their shots vs the Hoosiers on Friday and 55% from 3-point land. We don’t see them doing that again here. First of all, IU tried to run with the Heels which turned out to be a mistake. Because of that, UNC got a number of easy baskets and wide open 3’s. Notre Dame will make this a half court game which is not how the Heels want to play. The Irish know they can’t win in a run & gun type game. These two teams know each other very well and Irish head man Mike Brey has proven he knows how to beat UNC as ND has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. We expect a close game. Take the point |
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03-27-16 | Syracuse +7.5 v. Virginia | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Syracuse +7.5 over Virginia, Sunday at 6:05 PM ET This should be a lower scoring game (124 is the total) making it much tougher to cover a higher number like this. Both dogs covered (won outright) yesterday and that now means the Elite 8 underdogs are on a 42-28 ATS run. These 2 met once this season with UVA winning by just 8 at home despite hitting 57% of their shots while the Orange hit just 39%. That line was set at Cavs -9.5 meaning this one should be more like UVA -5.5 or -6. Virginia won by 12 vs Iowa State last round which wasn’t a surprise (we were on Virginia). The Cavs frustrated a run & gun ISU team into a halfcourt game. Syracuse is a halfcourt team. They play slow just like Virginia. They will be in their comfort zone here also these two teams know each other very well making a large spread more difficult to attain. The Orange are playing their best basketball of the year and were in striking distance in most of their loss – only 4 losses by more than 12 points. We think this low scoring and goes to the wires making the points too good to pass up. |
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03-26-16 | Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 145 | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Under 145 Points - Kansas vs Villanova, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET Everyone, or should we say most, will be jumping on the OVER in this game. They’ve seen Villanova top 80 points in every game of the tourney including putting up 92 vs Miami on Thursday. We don’t see any way the Cats keep shooting the way they have been. After hitting nearly 60% the first weekend of the tourney, Nova made 63% of their shots vs Miami, a ridiculous 67% from 3 AND 94% from the charity stripe. We have to believe those numbers come back to the mean here facing a Kansas defense that ranks as the 5th most efficient in the nation. The Jayhawks have held 11 of their last 16 opponents to UNDER 40% shooting and we just don’t see Nova continuing on their torrid pace vs this defense. On the flip side, the Wildcat defense hasn’t been getting much pub which is understandable based on their offensive output. This team is very good on the defensive end of the court. They are 11th nationally in defensive efficiency and have held 6 straight opponents and 14 of their last 17 to under 70 points. The only top 10 defense (efficiency) that Nova faced in the Big East this year was Seton Hall. The Pirates held the Cats to 67 & 71 points. Both games would have landed UNDER this number. The only top 10 defense (efficiency) in the Big 12 was West Virginia. Kansas was held to 63 & 75 points in those games and both landed UNDER this number. The defenses come to play here and we like the UNDER. |
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03-26-16 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 206 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
OVER 206 Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons, 6:35PM CT We like OVER in the Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons game. Our analytics project a total of 210 plus on this game and we couldn't agree more. Atlanta is the faster paced team of the two ranking in the top 10 in that statistical category but both are playing extremely efficient offensively right now. In their last five games both of these franchise rank in the top 9 in offensive efficiency numbers with Detroit averaging 1.17 points per possession and Atlanta averaging 1.133PPP. On the season both Atlanta and Detroit rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency rankings but in their last five games both are allowing more points per possession with each in the bottom half of the league in that category. Both teams are playing the second night of a back to back and both tend to play higher scoring games when un-rested. Combined these two teams are 20-14 'over' when playing without rest this season. The Pistons have scored 112 or more points in 5 of their last six games and have allowed 102 or more in 8 of their last ten. The Hawks have ripped off 7 straight games of 101 or more points and have averaged over 110PPG in that stretch. In the most recent meeting between these two teams which was earlier this month they combined for over 52 total points in all four quarters. The 'over' has cashed 4 straight in this series and the last 4 meetings in Mo'Town. The bet here is OVER! |
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03-24-16 | Maryland v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET Kansas gets an extra day to rest and prepare here as they finished off UConn last Saturday while the Terps (who had a long trip to Spokane, WA) had to play on Sunday. Coaching edge also the KU with Bill Self and his 39-16 record in the NCAA tourney (5th highest winning % all time) compared to Turgeon who’s a pedestrian 8-6 lifetime in the Dance. The Terps struggled down the stretch winning just 3 of their final 8 games heading into the Big Dance. While they obviously did get two wins last week, they weren’t overly impressive in our eyes. They struggled to beat South Dakota State (couldn’t hold a big lead) and then while they beat Hawaii by 12, it was a close game until the final stretch run when the Terps closed out the game on a 30-19 run. Maryland’s tough closing run on the season was directly related to the struggles of their point guard Melo Trimble. He’s played so many minutes he’s hit a wall. In his last 12 games, Trimble is shooting just 32% and just 26% from beyond the arc. This team has no chance of beating KU unless Trimble shoots much better than that. Will he? We doubt it as Kansas is 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and guard Devonte Graham is one of the better defenders in the country. The Jayhawks have been at the top of their game since late January winning 16 straight including wins over NCAA teams Kentucky, Iowa State, West Virginia (twice), Baylor (twice), Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas all in the final month and a half before the Dance. They destroyed both Austin Peay (by 26) & UConn (by 13 – but led by 24) in the first two games. This team is playing too well right now for Maryland to hang. |
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03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) +4 v. Villanova | Top | 69-92 | Loss | -102 | 50 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami FL +4 over Villanova, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET First off, we are siding with one of the top teams from a MUCH better conference. The Canes are one of the top teams from what seems to be the top conference in the nation this season. Miami finished tied for 2nd in the ACC with Virginia and that league has sent SIX teams to the Sweet 16. Nova is the lone team still standing from the weaker Big East. Many will be on the Cats here because of the way they performed in the opening rounds of the Big Dance. They rolled to easy wins over UNC Asheville & Iowa making them a bit over valued here in our opinion. Nova was able to use their full court & perimeter pressure to create turnovers and easy hoops in those two games. UNCA turned the ball over on 21% of their possessions and Iowa did so on 18%. Because of that, Nova was able to jump out to big leads early and coast. That won’t happen here. Miami is a veteran team with very good guards including PG Rodriguez. They won’t be frazzled by the Nova pressure. This Cane offense is very good. They rank 12th nationally in offensive efficiency. They just took it to the #1 defensive team in the nation (efficiency wise) last weekend lighting up Wichita State hitting 55% of their shots in the 8 point win. That red hot Shocker team came into their game vs the Canes after BIG wins over Vandy & Arizona. It was a Shocker defense that hadn’t allowed a single team all season to hit 50% of their shots until they faced Miami. Nova’s offense really relies heavily on the 3 point shot. That can be dangerous playing in a new venue for the first time (Yum Center in Louisville). It can also be dangerous when facing very good, tall, and athletic guards which Miami has (6’6 Davon Reed & 6’5 Sheldon McClellan). Those type teams have given Villanova some problems this year (Xavier & Seton Hall). Often overlooked, Miami has also had an extra day to get ready having played last Saturday while Nova played on Sunday. The Wildcats put a TON of emphasis on winning their first two games and getting to the Sweet 16. They hadn’t done so since 2009 despite having been a #1 seed once and #2 seed twice. While we won’t call for a “letdown” so to speak, one of their goals this year was to get to the Sweet 16 and they did so. We have these two teams rated much closer to even so we’ll grab the points and MIAMI. |
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03-23-16 | Georgia Tech v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -5 over Georgia Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET This is one of the tougher travel spots you’ll see for a college basketball team. While San Diego State will be at home for their 3rd straight NIT game, Tech has been all over the place. On Monday (just 48 hours ago) they upset South Carolina on the road to get a chance to move on in the NIT. However, they didn’t know who they would play until the Washington/San Diego State game ended at 1:42 AM ET on Tuesday morning. At that point they had to quickly make plans to fly from South Carolina to California and did so all day on Tuesday. This team basically had 43 hours from the time they found out they were playing SDSU until game time tonight. They will have almost no preparation time. While the Aztec coaches were up late Monday night into Tuesday watching film and putting together a game plan AND practicing, Tech was en route to California. We give the Aztecs a huge advantage there. On top of that, this is a tough match up for the Jackets. Georgia Tech doesn’t take many 3’s. They get the majority of their points from inside the arc (20th in the nation in that category). They are running into a defense that is #1 nationally defending inside the arc as SDSU allows only 41% on opponents 2 point attempts. The host is fantastic defensively in every category ranking #1 nationally in opponents 2 point %, #2 in opponents 3 point %, and #3 in overall defensive efficiency. Tech relies on heavily on rebounding as well and they are facing an Aztec team that is solid on the boards and the 5th “tallest” team in the country. Not to mention we expect the Tech players to have “weary” legs which will affect them in all aspects of the game including the boards. This is a sellout so we expect the crowd to be a factor as the winner moves on to NY City for the NIT Final 4. SDSU has a fantastic home court advantage going 46-6 here the last 3 years. We’ll lay it with San Diego State. |
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03-23-16 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 209 | Top | 122-101 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Play UNDER in the Atlanta Hawks versus Washington Wizards game tonight. This is a quick rematch from Monday night when the Wizards beat the Hawks in Atlanta 117-102. Tonight we expect the defenses to step up in a game that has playoff implications for both clubs. Prior to Monday's game the Hawks had held five straight foes to an average shooting percentage of just 40%. The Wizards though shot 50% overall from the field and 52% from beyond the arc which are both higher than season averages so expect them to return to the 'norm' tonight. Atlanta has the second best overall shooting percentage defense in the NBA and have the second best defensive efficiency rating in the league just behind the Spurs in both categories. Washington is 'average' in terms of DEFF (defensive efficiency) and slightly below average in points allowed per game. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency ratings even though both clubs shoot it relatively well. Money indicators and line movement clearly tell us the play on tonight's game is 'under'. Hawks under in four straight when coming off a loss and Wizards 'under' in 5 of their last six off a win. The two meetings this season have gone 'over' BUT 8 of the last ten meetings have resulted in less than tonight's total. Value with the UNDER! |