15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on William & Mary +14

William & Mary is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tribe have opened 8-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to St. John's and to Richmond (by 4).  They are 7-1 ATS in lined games and have played seven of their first 10 games on the highway against the 85th-ranked schedule.  Their up-tempo style is giving teams fits as it's tough to prepare for.

George Washington is also off to a solid 7-2 start this season but it has come against the 279th-ranked schedule.  That's nearly 200 spots easier than the slate that William & Mary has faced.  They also lost to the two of the three best teams they played in McNeese State and Murray State, and only beat USF by 4.  The Revolutionaries have no business being a 14-point favorite tonight.  Bet William & Mary Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -2.5

Northern Iowa is one of the few teams in the country that returned almost everyone from last season.  The chemistry has been there for the Panthers as a result, leading to a 7-1 start that has featured an upset road win over UC Irvine and a 21-point win over Loyola-Chicago on a neutral.

Wichita State has five new starters this season.  The Shockers are 5-4 this season beating the five worst teams they have faced, and losing to the four best.  They don't have a win over a team that ranks inside the top 225 on Kenpom.  They won't be beating Northern Iowa which slots in at 91st, either.  

This will be a big home-court advantage with a Saturday night game for the Panthers.  They are 5-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by 26 points per game.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Virginia Tech -3.5

This looks like the perfect spot to fade George Mason.  The Patriots have opened 9-0 against the 332nd-ranked schedule in the country.  This will actually be their first true road game of the season as they have played seven home games and just two on a neutral.

Virginia Tech has opened 7-2 this season against the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country.  They have wins over Providence, Colorado State and South Carolina all on the highway.  Their two losses came to VCU and St. Mary's on a neutral.  Only four of their nine games have been at home.

Amani Hansberry (16.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Neoklis Avdalas (13.7 PPG, 5.0 APG) are two of the better players in the ACC.  There is great balance on this veteran team with seven players averaging at least 8.7 points per game.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

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15* Seton Hall/K-State ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 145.5

This total of 145.5 is way too short for a game involving Kansas State.  The Wildcats are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 34th in adjusted tempo, 55th in adjusted offense and 127th in adjusted defense.  They are 20th in average length of offensive possession at 15 seconds.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Wildcats are 6-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 148 or more combined points i all eight games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 145.5-point total.  They have gone for 155 or more combined points in seven of their eight games as well.

Seton Hall will be playing its first true road game of the season and will not be able to dictate the tempo like they would at home.  They went for 159 combined points with NC State and 164 with USC, two teams with a similar profile to K-State that like to play fast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Oakland OVER 165

Oakland has gone through a transformation under legendary coach Greg Kampe to play a lost faster this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 64th in adjusted tempo, 73rd in adjusted offense and 287th in adjusted defense.

The result has been the Golden Grizzlies being a dead nuts OVER team going 7-1 OVER in all games this season with 160 or more combined points in seven of nine games.  They just went for 182 with Montana, 188 with a dead nuts under team in Eastern Michigan, 170 with UCF and 193 with IPFW in four of their last five games.

This figures to be a shootout with Toledo, which like Oakland is much better on offense than defense.  The Rockets rank 90th in adjusted offense but just 303rd in adjusted defense.  They went for 173 combined points with Detroit and 167 with Youngstown State.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo +6.5

Buffalo is 8-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season and one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Bulls upset Depaul by 13 as 18.5-point underdogs.  They have had the last week off and will be very motivated to return home for just their 5th home game of the season after an 18-point win at Canisius.

St. Bonaventure is one of the more overrated teams in the country after a 8-1 start to the season.  But the Bonnies are just 3-5 ATS in lined games.  They beat Canisius by 19 at home to give these teams a common opponent, whereas Buffalo beat Canisius by 18 on the road.  Five of their 18 wins have come by single-digits.  Bet Buffalo Saturday.

15* Duke/Michigan State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 142.5

Both Michigan State and Duke are dead nuts UNDER teams.  The Spartans rank 307th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted defense.  The Blue Devils rank 237th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted defense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace and nothing will come easy for either offense.

Duke is 8-1 UNDER in all games this season.  The Blue Devils are coming off a 67-66 win over Florida for just 133 combined points with a 157-point total.  Michigan State is 6-1 UNDER in its last seven games overall finishing with 140 or fewer combined points in five of those seven.  They beat Iowa 71-52 for 123 combined points and UNC 74-58 for 132 combined points in their last two games coming in.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Mavs OVER 223

The Mavericks scored 120.5 points per game in their four games prior to facing the top defensive team in the NBA in the Thunder last night in a 132-111 loss.  They are finding some great chemistry with Flagg, Nembhard and Davis in the lineup.  Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24, 22 and 16 points in his last four games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat. 

Because of the blowout nature of that loss to the Thunder, no starter even played 30 minutes for the Mavericks.  They should still be very fresh tonight and ready to run.  Anthony Davis has said he will play even though it's the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They will likely still be without Lively II and Gafford, their two big men who are key for them defensively.  They have had to go more small ball without them which is why they are 4-1 OVER in their last five games with 224 or more combined points in all five.

The Rockets are coming off a 117-98 home win over the Suns last night.  The blowout nature of that win also allowed the Rockets to rest their starters in the 4th.  It was a disastrous shooting game for the Suns who were without Devin Booker.  The Suns shot 39% from the floor and 5-of-36 (14%) from 3-point range which kept it under the total.

Steven Adams has already been ruled out for this game on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The Rockets will have to go more small ball tonight, which will favor the OVER.  They could also get Alperun Sengun back from an illness that kept him out last night.  The Rockets rank 4th in offensive rating this season.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace and will control the tempo at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Tulane OVER 163.5

Akron profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 44th in the country in adjusted tempo and 23rd in average length of offensive possession at 15 seconds.  They have an elite offense ranking 217th in adjusted offense but a terrible defense at 168th.

Akron is 6-2 OVER in all games this season while scoring 96.2 points per game.  They have topped this total of 163.5 with their opponents in six of eight games against D-1 competition.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 181 points with Yale, 186 with Milwaukee and 174 with Bucknell.

Tulane is also much better on offense (101st) than it is on defense (314th).  The Green Wave have played a lot of slow-paced teams this season so this will be a shock to the system as Akron pushes 100 after scoring 94 or more points in five consecutive games and seven of its last eight overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Indiana/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4.5

The Ohio State just put an end to their 4-game losing streak to hated rival Michigan in a 27-9 road win last week.  I actually think they wanted that win more than they will want to win the Big Ten Championship Game here against Indiana.  If there was ever a team to have a letdown in a title game, it would be Ohio State.

The Buckeyes know even if they lose to Indiana they will still likely get a 1st-round bye in the 12-team playoff.  I question their motivation as a result.  I also question their strength of schedule as they have breezed through one of the easiest slates you can imagine.  They avoided Oregon, Indiana and USC this season.  Against the best team they played in Texas, they only won 14-7 at home and were outgained 336 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 133 total yards.

Indiana is the real deal this season. The Hoosiers had to go on the road for their two toughest games and beat both Oregon and Penn State.  Ten of their 12 wins came by double-digits.  They have numbers that are very comparable to that of Ohio State, and this will feel like a home game being played in Indianapolis.  They have done everything possible to this point to prove their doubters wrong, and a win over Ohio State and a Big Ten title and the #1 seed in the playoff would be the ultimate validation for them.  I have no doubt this game means more to the Hoosiers than it does the Buckeyes, and I think that plays out on the field Saturday night.

Indiana averages 7.2 yards per play on offense and allows 4.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play.  Ohio State is slightly better at 3.1 yards per play, averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 3.8 yards per play on defense.  But the Buckeyes defense hasn't face an offense nearly as good as the one they will be up against Saturday night.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Duke/Virginia ACC Championship No-Brainer on Virginia -4

Virginia beat Duke 34-17 on November 15th on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Cavaliers outgained the Blue Devils 540 to 255, or by 285 total yards.  It wasn't even as close as the 17-point final would indicate as Virginia was by far the superior team.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

I know Virginia was fortunate early in the season with a lot of close wins, but there has been nothing fortunate about their last two wins.  They won that game by 17 over Duke while outgaining them by 285 yards, and last time out they handled rival Virginia Tech 27-7 as 8-point home favorites.  They outgained the Hokies 380 to 197, or by 183 total yards.

This Virginia defense is balling out here down the stretch.  The Cavaliers have allowed 21 points or fewer in six consecutive games and an average of 16.2 points per game during this stretch.  They have allowed an average of 229.5 yards per game in their last four games.  And that's the difference in this game.  Duke has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Blue Devils rank 101st in scoring defense at 29.4 points per game, 114th in total defense at 414.2 yards per game and 117th at 6.2 yards per play.

Duke is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week here with no late-season bye.  They have a tired defense which just gave up 468 total yards to Wake Forest last week, which has one of the worst offenses in the ACC.  It was a misleading final as the Blue Devils were outgained by 90 yards but were +4 in turnovers.

Virginia got a bye before its regular season finale against Virginia Tech.  That makes the Cavaliers the much fresher, prepared team for this game.  The ACC wants Virginia to win because if Duke wins they will be left out of the college football playoff, and the ACC would be in jeopardy of not getting a single team in the 12-team playoff.  I'm not saying Virginia will get all the calls, but I'm not saying they won't, either.  They don't need the calls as they are by far the superior team and will prove it once again Saturday night.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* BYU/Texas Tech Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from the 29-7 win by Texas Tech over BYU in their first meeting this season that saw just 36 combined points.  Now we have a lot of room to spare in the rematch with this total up at 49.5.

BYU managed just 255 total yards against Texas Tech in that first meeting and won't have any more success than they did the first time against one of the nation's top defenses.  The Red Raiders have allowed a total of 16 points in their last three games for an average of just 5.3 points per game.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense at 11.2 points per game, 7th in total defense at 258.9 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.  They are also 1st in rushing defense at 68.9 yards per game, making this a bad matchup for BYU's offense which is run-heavy.

BYU has a solid defense of its own.  The Cougars rank 17th in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game, 38th at 324.6 yards per game and 34th at 5.1 yards per play.  What they do extremely well is hold opponents out of the end zone as they are Top 10 in the country in allowing touchdowns inside the red zone.  We saw that play out in the first meeting as they held the Red Raiders to five field goals and just two touchdowns.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.