Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-26-24 | Rockies +164 v. Giants | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. We have to take a shot with the red hot Rockies on Friday as they head to San Francisco to face a Giants club that is reeling right now. San Francisco ranks firmly in the bottom-third of the majors in weighted on base average over the last 30, 14 and 7 days. In other words, we're not talking about a short-term slump. While Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has had his share of previous struggles against current Giants hitters, the fact is he just silenced them in a start last week and Colorado checks in a perfect 4-0 in his last four starts. We'll ride the hot hand here. Giants starter Kyle Harrison was once pegged as one of their top pitching prospects but we're talking about a guy that has now made 24 career big league starts and has failed to make any sort of real progress, logging a 4.49 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. The Rockies rank top-three in baseball in wOBA over the last 14 and 7 days (at the time of writing). At this generous price, we can't pass them up. Take Colorado (8*). |
|||||||
07-26-24 | Pirates +156 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
National League Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. NOTE: This play will be 'action' with the Diamondbacks yet to announce their official starter (Zac Gallen is probable). The Pirates are every bit as much involved in the National League playoff hunt as the Diamondbacks and they're just as hot as well, riding an 8-2 run over their last 10 games. They'll turn to Luis Ortiz on Friday while the D'Backs haven't settled on a starter (at the time of writing) but Zac Gallen looks like the leading candidate. Ortiz has been quietly effective for the Buccos this season, rewarding them for sticking with him after a disastrous 2023 campaign. Ortiz logged a FIP nearing six last year but has bounced back to post a 3.09 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in north of 70 innings of work this season. Note that Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 in his four starts to date. While not bursting with depth, the Pirates bullpen is worth betting on when rested, which is the case here following an off day on Thursday. If Gallen does get the start for the D'Backs, that serves our purposes just fine. He hasn't been the dominant pitcher we've come to expect this season and Arizona has lost each of his last two home starts and is just 3-5 in his last eight outings overall. He's topped out at four strikeouts over his last four starts. Note that the Pirates have been trending in the right direction offensively, climbing the ladder in terms of weighted on base average over the last 14 and seven days. Arizona was red hot and while still effective at the dish, it has cooled slightly over the last seven and 14 days (according to wOBA). Arizona did bolster its bullpen by adding A.J. Puk in a trade yesterday but that only further illustrates that its relief corps is an issue. Puk owns a 4.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
|||||||
07-26-24 | Cubs v. Royals -1.5 | 0-6 | Win | 140 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is a pitching mismatch as the Cubs trot out potential trade chip Kyle Hendricks against Brady Singer of the Royals. Hendricks may be an attractive piece for a contending team looking for another experienced arm for the stretch run but that's about it. He's been awful this season, logging a 5.43 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. The Cubs have lost 14 of his 18 starts this season. You would have to go all the way back to mid-April to find the last one-run loss in that bunch so we're not all that concerned with laying the extra run with the Royals here. Singer has quietly enjoyed a terrific campaign, sporting a 3.86 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. Last time out he tossed seven shutout innings against the White Sox. The Cubs aren't the White Sox but they haven't proven to be much better at the plate, especially lately as they check in ranked just one spot higher (in 29th place) in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
07-26-24 | Calgary -1 v. Ottawa | Top | 6-33 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Calgary minus the points over Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The RedBlacks are what I consider to be a 'paper tiger' as we wind down the month of July. Ottawa is off to a 4-2 start and sits just two points behind the first-place Alouettes in the East Division. With that being said, the RedBlacks four victories have come against the Blue Bombers, Tiger-Cats and Elks (two wins). By most metrics, those are the league's three worst teams so far this season. Also keep in mind, after scoring a touchdown less than four minutes into their game against the lowly Elks last week, they never reached the end zone again the rest of the way, narrowly hanging on for a 20-14 win (they beat the Elks by a field goal the week previous). It's a much different story for the Stampeders. They've battle hard on their way to a 3-3 record with all three of their losses coming by single-digit margins. Last Sunday they hung on for an impressive 25-24 win over the first-place Lions. While I've been among Calgary QB Jake Maier's critics at times, there's no denying he's playing the best football of his CFL career right now. On Sunday he took on a fierce B.C. defense and threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns (perhaps more importantly no interceptions). Calgary is a well-coached team with a number of players that are really starting to round into form. I'm sure they see this as a tremendous opportunity to get over the hump and keep within striking distance of the Lions and Roughriders at the top of the West Division. Take Calgary (10*). |
|||||||
07-25-24 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. Go back over the last seven, 14 and even 30 days and you'll find the Oakland A's near the top of the majors in terms of weighted on base average. They're coming off a poor showing against a steadily-improving Hunter Brown of the Astros yesterday but I fully expect them to bounce back against Angels left-hander Kenny Rosenberg on Thursday. Rosenberg will be making his 13th big league appearance - all coming with the Angels since 2022. In 10 innings of work this season he has been tagged for seven earned runs. In his major league career, Rosenberg has posted a 4.42 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. While the Angels have been one of baseball's worst offensive teams for most of the season, they do have a chance to go off on Thursday as they face A's journeyman starter Ross Stripling. He's slated to make his first start since May. Things certainly haven't gone well for Stripling this season and particularly over his last four outings as he has given up 17 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings of work over that stretch. Stripling is allowing a whopping 12.4 hits per nine innings this season while striking out only 5.7. On an evening where the temperature will hover around 80 degrees and the wind will be blowing out to right center at Angel Stadium, we'll confidently back the 'over' on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
07-25-24 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal UNDER 49 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Roughriders long 'over' streak came to an end last week as they secured a 19-9 win at home against the Blue Bombers. I look for another relatively low-scoring affair as Saskatchewan heads to Montreal to challenge the Alouettes on a short week on Thursday. Montreal is coming off its bye week which came on the heels of a blowout home loss against the Argos. The Als not only lost that game but also lost QB Cody Fajardo to a hamstring injury. He isn't expected to play on Thursday. Caleb Evans is expected to start in his place. With Evans running the offense, I expect to see a scaled-back version of the Als playbook. Note that in his CFL career, Evans has thrown 15 touchdowns compared to 22 interceptions. There's little reason to anticipate Montreal having Evans drop back and let it fly too much in this game (especially given what a running threat he is). Riders QB Shea Patterson has performed admirably in place of Trevor Harris. He won't have a couple of key weapons this week, however, with RB A.J. Ouellette and WR Kian Schaffer-Baker sidelined due to injury. Saskatchewan is likely to scale back its offense against a ball-hawking Montreal defense in this difficult road test. Finally, we'll note that these are the two best defenses in the CFL as far as fewest points allowed this season goes. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
07-25-24 | Tigers +150 v. Guardians | 3-0 | Win | 150 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Guardians are in a bit of a tough spot on the mound after Tanner Bibee was forced to leave last night's game early due to injury. Three of their key relievers will be unavailable for Thursday's game after working each of the last two nights. They'll also be starting Gavin Williams, who has struggled in his sophomore campaign. Cleveland is just 1-3 in Williams' four starts so far this season. He owns a WHIP approaching 1.60 in 18 innings of work. For the Tigers, this amounts to a 'bullpen game' with left-handed reliever Tyler Holton starting. That's just fine as they used just two relievers in last night's game, keeping most of their key arms rested. The Guardians offense has cooled off considerably in recent weeks and even over the last month. While Detroit's bats were quiet last night, recording only two hits, I'm confident we'll see them bounce back on Thursday afternoon. Take Detroit (8*). |
|||||||
07-24-24 | Giants +180 v. Dodgers | 8-3 | Win | 180 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Robbie Ray has been all but forgotten by most but he'll make his Giants debut on Wednesday as San Francisco looks to snap its two-game skid against the Dodgers. It's easy to forget that Ray won the A.L. Cy Young Award with the Blue Jays and then turned in a fine follow-up campaign with the Mariners in 2022 before going on the shelf after just one disastrous outing last season. He's been working his way back and has logged a solid 3.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings of work in the Giants minor league system this season. There's obviously a big difference between pitching in the minors and facing live major league pitching (against one of the best offensive teams in baseball in the Dodgers) but I don't think too much will be asked of Ray here. The Giants have managed their bullpen well lately. Only long reliever Randy Rodriguez is likely unavailable for this game after working the last two nights. Tyler Glasnow will also be making his return to a big league mound on Wednesday but he's coming off a much shorter stint on the I.L. Glasnow last pitched on July 5th, when he gave up five earned runs in six innings against the Brewers. In fact, Glasnow has given up exactly five earned runs in three of his last five outings so he's been anything but untouchable. Current Giants hitters have posted a respectable .764 OPS in 69 career at-bats against him. The Dodgers figure to be without two key relievers for this game after Alex Vesia and Blake Treinen worked in the first two games of this series. Take San Francisco (8*). |
|||||||
07-24-24 | Tigers +132 v. Guardians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit over Cleveland at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. Tigers starter Jack Flaherty continues to get no respect whatsoever from the betting marketplace, despite the fact he's been on the mound for six Detroit victories in his last seven outings. Thought to be a key trade chip leading up to the deadline next week, Flaherty has shown no signs of slowing down as we enter the dog days of Summer. He has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts and this is a matchup he can handle as current Guardians hitters are just 14-for-60 with a .681 OPS against him. While Flaherty has had a penchant for giving up home runs lately, allowing six in his last four outings, the weather conditions should help him in that regard on Wednesday with relatively cool temperatures (for late July in Cleveland) and fairly strong winds blowing in from left-center. Tanner Bibee will counter for Cleveland. He did manage to pitch well over five innings in his most recent start against the Padres but the Guardians have dropped two of his last three outings and he gave up eight earned runs in 11 2/3 innings of work in those two losses (one of them came against these same Tigers). Current Tigers hitters are 16-for-56 off of Bibee with a .785 OPS. Both bullpens have been overworked in the first two games of this series so there's no real advantage in that department. We'll go with the better starter at a generous price on Wednesday. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
07-23-24 | Mets +140 v. Yankees | 3-2 | Win | 140 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Mets over the Yankees at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees are coming off a much-needed 9-1 win over the Rays in an afternoon affair yesterday. One game (or win) does not make a team, however, and the fact is the Yanks aren't all that dominant right now. They're still being priced as an elite team of course and we'll take advantage of that fact and fade them with a play on the Mets in Tuesday's latest instalment of the Subway Series in the Bronx. The Mets will hand the ball to veteran left-hander Jose Quintana. Thought to be an attractive piece for a contender leading up to the trade deadline, the Mets are actually still in the race and will need him to step up down the stretch. Quintana owns a disappointing 5.00 FIP this season but a far more respectable 1.26 WHIP. Note that he had tossed seven shutout innings in consecutive starts prior to giving up five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a loss to the Rockies last time out. Luis Gil will counter for the Yankees. New York came away victorious in his most recent start in Baltimore but had dropped each of his previous four outings. In 19 starts, Gil owns a 3.60 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. Those are certainly good numbers but perhaps not as good as the market is pricing at the time of writing in advance of Tuesday's contest. I don't believe the chasm between these two bullpens is as wide as it is often made out to be. The Mets can hang in this matchup and we'll take a shot with them at a generous price on Tuesday. Take the Mets (8*). |
|||||||
07-22-24 | Reds +139 v. Braves | 4-1 | Win | 139 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. The Reds are coming off a series sweep at the hands of the Nationals over the weekend while the Braves dropped two of three games against the Cardinals. I simply feel this price should be much closer to a pk'em than we're dealing with. Cincinnati will hand the ball to Hunter Greene. He's been terrific lately, allowing just two earned runs over his last three starts. In fact, Greene is having a career year as he has posted a 3.63 FIP and 1.12 WHIP. Speaking of career years, Braves starter Reynaldo Lopez has impressed as well - like Greene he also earned an N.L. All-Star nod. Of note, however, the Braves are just 1-2 over his last three starts and 8-9 in their last 17 games overall. Last time out Lopez was hit hard, giving up 11 hits over six innings against the Padres. In a pitching matchup that looks like a toss-up to me, we'll take a flyer on the underdog Reds. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
|||||||
07-21-24 | BC v. Calgary +3.5 | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Sunday. The Stampeders have been right there over their last two games - two difficult tests on the road against Montreal and Winnipeg - but fell just short on both occasions. Unlike in their contest against the Alouettes, the Stamps didn't fold in the second half last week against Winnipeg, ultimately dropping a 41-37 decision. Those two games can serve as building blocks for 2-3 Calgary as it returns home to host B.C. in a revenge game on Sunday. The Lions prevailed by a score of 26-17 at home against the Stamps earlier this season. That game certainly could have gone either way and the Lions only earned the cover thanks to a late field goal. B.C. enters this game on the heels of five straight wins but I suspect it will be in tough trying for a sixth in Calgary on Sunday. Take Calgary (8*). |
|||||||
07-21-24 | Giants -1.5 v. Rockies | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. The Giants have dropped the first two games of this series in a pair of tightly-contested affairs. I look for San Francisco to avoid the sweep in convincing fashion on Sunday. Rockies starter Austin Gomber has been the cure for many teams' ails over the course of the season. He checks in 2-6 with a 4.61 ERA. Incredibly, Gomber remains in the rotation despite allowing four earned runs or more in six of his last seven outings. Rookie Hayden Birdsong is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in four starts for the Giants this season. He deserved a better fate in his most recent outing as he held the Twins to just one earned run on two hits over five innings in a 4-2 Giants loss. The Giants bullpen is in excellent shape after using only two relievers for 29 total pitches in last night's game. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
07-20-24 | Astros v. Mariners -112 | 4-2 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Houston at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. The Astros took the opener of this series by a 3-0 score last night. We'll back the Mariners to rebound on Saturday as they send George Kirby to the hill against Framber Valdez. Kirby continues to pitch well with a 2.82 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts this season. Unfortunately the Mariners have dropped his last three starts due to a lack of offensive production. I'm confident they can rectify that on Saturday, however, as they face Valdez. Current Mariners hitters are 53-for-180 (.294) off of the left-hander with an OPS of .772. This is obviously a big series right out of the All-Star break with these two teams tied atop the A.L. West following last night's result. The Mariners are still 30-19 at home this season and I look for them to bounce back here. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
07-20-24 | Giants -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has inexplicably strung together three straight team wins in his last three starts. In fact, you would have to go back five Freeland outings to find the last time the Rockies lost by more than a single run with him on the hill. We'll go against that trend on Saturday, however, as I still feel that Freeland is one of baseball's weakest starters and enters with a miserable track record against current Giants hitters. San Francisco will be happy to be facing Freeland, noting that its current hitters have gone 30-for-91 (.330) against him with a .906 OPS. Despite his recent success, the Rockies left-hander still owns a 4.29 FIP and 1.62 WHIP this season. It's a much different story for Giants starter Logan Webb. The N.L. All-Star checks in with a 2.80 FIP and 1.24 WHIP but will be looking to bounce back following an ugly outing against Toronto on July 10th. Note that current Rockies hitters are just 37-for-154 (.240) off of Webb with a .611 OPS. The Giants were serious about securing a win in a tight ball game last night as they used four key relievers (and ultimately fell short). That's of little consequence here with the All-Star break barely in the rear-view mirror. It should be all hands on deck for the San Francisco 'pen on Saturday. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
07-20-24 | Toronto v. Hamilton +2.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Tiger-Cats are desperately searching for their first win of the season and if they want to get it on Saturday, they'll have to defeat the rival Argonauts at Tim Hortons Field. I like their chances of staging the upset. Toronto is riding high off an upset win of its own last week as it downed the Alouettes in a blowout in Montreal. Of course, the Argos benefited from the Als losing QB Cody Fajardo to injury early in that contest. At 3-2 on the season, Toronto hasn't been the juggernaut we saw last year, when it lost just two games all season. The jury is still out on first-year QB Cameron Judge, who has gotten off to an up-and-down start to his CFL career. Off a bye week, at home (following a blowout loss to the Lions on this same field), there's no better spot for the Ti-Cats to finally earn their first victory. We'll grab the points, but likely won't need them on Saturday. Take Hamilton (8*). |
|||||||
07-19-24 | Edmonton Elks +1 v. Ottawa | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. The spot doesn't get much stronger for the winless (0-5) Elks on Friday as they get a quick revenge opportunity after letting one get away against these same RedBlacks last Sunday. The big news out of Edmonton on Monday was the firing of head coach and general manager Chris Jones. Consider it addition by subtraction as Jones' days in Edmonton were numbered and the move likely came a week or two too late. I do think the Elks get an immediate lift from interim head coach Jarious Jackson. A former quarterback in the league, Jackson will bring accountability back to the team - something that had been sorely missing under Jones. The fact is, Edmonton has been right there in the majority of its five losses this season. Keep in mind, as bad as the Elks defense has been from a statistical standpoint, it is just one game removed from holding the mighty Lions offense to only 24 points in a three-point loss, on the road no less. Ottawa is off to a 3-2 start but talent-wise, I consider the RedBlacks to be one of the league's weaker teams. They gave the Blue Bombers their first victory of the season two weeks ago and I believe they're in for a similar fate here against the desperate Elks. Credit Ottawa for rallying for the victory in Edmonton last weekend but I expect it to fall short on Friday. Take Edmonton (10*). |
|||||||
07-19-24 | Reds -117 v. Nationals | 5-8 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Washington at 6:45 pm et on Friday. The Reds were red hot offensively going into the All-Star break, ranking best in baseball in weighted on base average during the stretch from last Friday to Sunday and top five in that category going all the way back to the previous Friday. They should have little trouble picking up right where they left off as they face a left-hander in Patrick Corbin on Friday. Note that Cincinnati has been slightly better at the plate against left-handers (14th in wOBA) compared to right-handers (18th in wOBA) this season. Corbin went back to his struggling ways prior to the break, allowing 11 earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 innings. On the season he owns a 4.72 FIP and 1.54 WHIP - both numbers are well north of his career marks as his regression continues (Corbin turns 35 on Friday). Frankie Montas will counter for the Reds. He'll be facing a Nationals lineup that cooled off considerably leading into the All-Star break. Note that current Nationals hitters are just 5-for-24 off of the veteran right-hander with a .478 OPS (all five hits were singles). Take Cincinnati (8*). |
|||||||
07-17-24 | Fever v. Wings +4 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Dallas let Los Angeles off the hook on Sunday as it blew a fourth quarter lead in an eventual 87-81 loss. If any team is in desperate need of a win prior to the Olympic break, it's the Wings as they're off to a miserable 5-19 start to the season. Indiana checks in off consecutive wins but is still just 5-9 on the road this season. While the Fever have certainly been playing much better since getting off to a miserable 1-8 start this season, I'm not convinced they should be laying this many points on the road, especially in a clear letdown spot off Sunday's road win over the Lynx. Take Dallas (8*). |
|||||||
07-16-24 | National League v. American League UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between the National League and American League at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We've been riding the 'under' in recent MLB All-Star Games to considerable success and we'll do so again on Tuesday night in Arlington. I like the way both pitching staffs are made up. It goes without saying that the needle is swinging back toward baseball's best young arms with the likes of Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal starting this year's Midsummer Classic. Don't sleep on the relievers that have been selected to these two teams either - both sides will be able to give the hitters a lot of different looks and keep them off balance all night long. While the bats are imposing as usual, it's nothing we haven't seen before in recent All-Star Games, and four straight and six of the last seven instalments have totalled seven runs or less. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
07-16-24 | Mercury v. Mystics +5 | 96-87 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Phoenix at 11:30 am et on Tuesday. The Mystics have gone 6-6 over their last 12 games despite facing an absolutely brutal schedule. Their last seven contests have come at home against Connecticut and Las Vegas, on the road against Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Minnesota and Indiana in succession and then back at home against Las Vegas. The fact that they've hung in there (only one loss over that stretch was a true blowout) is a testament to their character. Here, Washington has the opportunity to head into the Olympic break on a high note. Phoenix is coming off a 27-point rout at the hands of Connecticut on Sunday - its second straight loss to open this road trip. The Mercury are just 4-5 over their last nine games and those four wins came against two struggling opponents in the Wings and Sparks (two wins against each). The last time these two teams met, Phoenix eked out a three-point victory at home back on May 23rd. We'll back the Mystics to gain an ounce of revenge in this early start matchup on Tuesday. Take Washington (8*). |
|||||||
07-14-24 | Nationals v. Brewers -140 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Washington at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm never a big fan of the 'avoid the sweep' angle in baseball. If it were that simple, every bettor would be successful. With that being said, I do like the Brewers chances of salvaging a win against the Nationals on Sunday, for a number of reasons. The Nationals entered this series riding a five-game losing streak, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Mets to open their current road trip. Despite winning the last two games, they're still four games under .500 on the road this season. Jake Irvin will get the start for Washington on Sunday. The All-Star break can't come soon enough for the left-hander, who is approaching his career-high in innings pitched (nine innings shy entering Sunday's start) and will start on short rest (four days) for a third straight turn in the rotation (he's thrown 99 and 94 pitches in his last two starts). Collin Rea will counter for Milwaukee. While his numbers aren't going to jump off the page, the Brewers do like to play for him having gone 12-6 in his 18 starts this season. He was lit up by the Pirates in his most recent outing but games like that have been few and far between. Rea is just one start removed from tossing seven shutout innings against the Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Nationals used five of their six available relievers in yesterday's game including Derek Law and Kyle Finnegan for a second straight game (likely rendering them unavailable here). Keep in mind, they also dealt key reliever Hunter Harvey to the Royals. Meanwhile, the Brewers are projected to have 'all hands on deck' in their bullpen for this pre-All-Star break finale. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
07-14-24 | Mercury v. Sun -10 | 69-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Phoenix at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Mercury are limping toward the Olympic break with Diana Taurasi and Britney Griner among those dealing with injuries. Regardless who is able to play on Sunday, I look for Connecticut to continue its dominance over Phoenix. The Sun have taken both previous meetings between these two teams this season and neither game was particularly close. Connecticut has been idle since Wednesday, when it dropped a hard-fought 71-68 decision at home against New York. That loss snapped a three-game winning streak. With this game, followed by a rematch with the Liberty on deck in Brooklyn on Tuesday to wrap up pre-Olympic break action, I look for the Sun to put their best foot forward on Sunday afternoon. Take Connecticut (8*). |
|||||||
07-13-24 | Saskatchewan +7.5 v. BC | 20-35 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Saskatchewan plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Roughriders will have a significant rest advantage entering Saturday's showdown with the Lions in Vancouver. Saskatchewan hasn't played since securing a 30-23 win over Toronto last Thursday while B.C. defeated Hamilton on the road this past Sunday. The Riders have arguably been the story of the league so far this season, jumping out to a perfect 4-0 start under the guidance of first-year head coach Corey Mase. I don't think their success is any fluke and this will serve as an excellent measuring stick game against what many to believe the league's best team in the Lions. B.C. has played two previous home games and both were close. It won by nine points at home against Calgary in Week 2 but that was a game that went right down to the wire as the Lions scored 12 unanswered points late to prevail. In their other home affair, the Lions eked out a three-point victory over the lowly Edmonton Elks. While the Riders will once again be without QB Trevor Harris, backup Shea Patterson stepped up and did an admirable job last week and should be able to build on that performance here. Look for Saskatchewan to open up the playbook a little more this week even if RB A.J. Ouellette remains the focal point of the offense. Take Saskatchewan (8*). |
|||||||
07-13-24 | Yankees v. Orioles -130 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore over New York at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. Yankees starter Luis Gil bounced back last time out as he gave up just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings but his team lost once again. In fact, New York has dropped each of his last four outings. Noting that current Orioles hitters are batting .298 in 47 career at-bats with a .757 OPS against Gil, his presence should be just what the doctor ordered for Baltimore on Saturday. Of course, the O's have been slumping. Note, however, Baltimore has gone a perfect 3-0 in Grayson Rodriguez's last three starts and he has recorded a solid 3.43 FIP and 1.22 WHIP this season. Current Yankees hitters are just 7-for-34 off of Rodriguez with an OPS of .554. While the O's did use four different relievers in last night's 4-1 defeat, none of those pitchers were pressed into action the night previous. Take Baltimore (10*). |
|||||||
07-12-24 | Mariners v. Angels +135 | 5-6 | Win | 135 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Mariners are red hot right now, winners of three games in a row including a decisive 11-0 victory in the opener of this four-game series in Anaheim last night. We'll call for the Angels to bounce back on Friday, however, as they send recent All-Star selection Tyler Anderson to the mound against injury-plagued Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Woo's season has never really gotten going as he's dealt with injuries that have kept him out of the starting rotation and even when he has been able to pitch, he's been limited. He's made only three starts since the beginning of June and none since June 24th. Since winning Woo's first six outings this season, the Mariners have now lost his last two. As I mentioned, Anderson was recently named to the American League All-Star team. He should be happy to be facing the Mariners on Friday, noting that he has held current Seattle hitters to 13-for-52 (.250) at the plate with an OPS of .618. No current Mariners hitter has recorded a home run against the left-hander. Last night's game turned out to be a throw-away for the Angels as it got out of hand early. I'm confident we'll see the Halos show some pride and get back in the win column on Friday, snapping the Mariners winning streak in the process. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
07-12-24 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Mariners bats exploded for 11 runs in the opener of this series last night. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday. Bryan Woo will return to the mound for Seattle. He hasn't pitched since June 24th. Note that his three starts in June totalled just 18 runs. In limited action this season (eight starts), Woo has posted a 2.73 FIP and 0.69 WHIP. He'll be facing an Angels club that ranks 29th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven and 14 days. While the Mariners offense has been heating up, it ranks just 24th in baseball in wOBA vs. left-handed pitching this season. And Angels southpaw starter (recently named as an American League All-Star selection) has held current Seattle hitters to just 13-for-52 (.250) at the plate with a .618 OPS. Both bullpens are in excellent shape following last night's lopsided affair. On a night where the temperature is expected to hover in the 70's with light winds in Anaheim, we'll confidently back the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
07-12-24 | Calgary v. Winnipeg -4.5 | Top | 37-41 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
West Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Calgary at 8:30 pm et on Friday. Calgary left it all on the field but ultimately came up just short in its upset bid in Montreal last Saturday. I say the Stampeders left it all on the field but the fact was they didn't really show up in the second half, letting the discombobulated Alouettes off the hook. While Calgary sits in third place in the five-team West Division, two spots ahead of the Blue Bombers, I expect it to have its hands full with revenge-minded Winnipeg on Friday. The Bombers continue to deal with a rash of injuries on the offensive side of the football but they have to feel pretty good about themselves after finally earning a victory last week against Ottawa. We wanted to see a response from Winnipeg in that game and we got it as it delivered a 25-16 home victory. Now it gets the chance to stay home and start building some positive momentum with this matchup against Calgary. Talent-wise, you could make the argument that the Stamps are in the league's bottom-tier. Yes, they're 2-2 on the campaign but there have been issues. Namely their run defense and their unsteady quarterback play out of Jake Maier. They can be exposed in both departments by a Bombers squad that is showing signs of coming together. Just two weeks ago, Winnipeg went into Calgary and dropped a 22-19 overtime decision. Revenge is an angle that works well in the nine-team CFL, particularly from a divisional perspective (just look at the Argos upset win over the Als last night). Take Winnipeg (10*). |
|||||||
07-11-24 | Toronto +7.5 v. Montreal | Top | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Maybe we're getting baited with this line now that it has moved past a touchdown to +7.5 but I'm willing to risk 'taking the bait' as I simply feel the Argos are catching too many points in this double-revenge spot. Not only did Toronto lose to Montreal just two weeks ago, it also dropped the East Final against the Alouettes at the tail-end at what had been a dream season to that point last November. The Argos enter this contest on the heels of back-to-back losses after losing only two games in the entire regular season last year. I'm not going to knock Toronto for last week's 'upset' loss in Saskatchewan. Riders head coach Corey Mase knows the Argos in and out after serving as their defensive coordinator. He completely eliminated the Argos aerial attack with rookie QB Cameron Dukes turning in his worst performance of the season (four interceptions and barely over 200 yards passing). A bounce-back should be in order here and it's worth noting that the Als are expected to be without the heart-and-soul of their defense in Marc-Antoine Dequoy (he's listed as doubtful due to injury). Montreal was let off the hook by Calgary last Saturday, surging to its fifth straight win to open the campaign. Toronto is not Calgary and isn't likely to fold in the same way the Stamps did last week. Expect a tightly-contested affair between these division rivals. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
07-11-24 | Sky v. Liberty -10.5 | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Chicago at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams came away victorious yesterday afternoon. I like New York's chances of keeping it rolling as it returns home to host Chicago on Thursday. Angel Reese kept her double-double streak alive thanks to a foul in the closing seconds of yesterday's contest. She's been the story for the Sky so far this season and while they've been playing better lately, they're still just 9-12 overall. New York has played with a chip on its shoulder all season long and certainly since losing the Commissioner's Cup against Minnesota back on June 25th. The Liberty are 10-1 at home this season, although Thursday's game will be played at Barclay's Center in Brooklyn. Regardless, I expect New York to improve to 13-2 against Eastern Conference foes with a decisive victory. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
07-11-24 | Dodgers +133 v. Phillies | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
National League Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Dodgers to bounce back on Thursday and we're getting a generous price to back them. While Philadelphia has prevailed in back-to-back games, it continues a cool-down period offensively. Note that the Phillies rank 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days - a far cry from what we had seen in the weeks and months prior. For their part, the Dodgers check in 14th in wOBA over the same stretch and third against right-handed pitching this season (which they'll be facing in Aaron Nola on Thursday). Nola has been good but not great this season, logging a 3.81 FIP and 1.03 WHIP. He owns a 3.61 ERA at home compared to 3.33 on the road. Nola has also been tagged for 10 of his 16 home runs allowed here at Citizens Bank Park (11 additional innings). Current Los Angeles hitters are 43-for-162 off of Nola with an OPS of .766. Note that Shohei Ohtani has never faced Nola. Rookie Landon Knack will counter for the Dodgers. He certainly hasn't been as good as his 2.86 ERA indicates as he has posted a 4.96 FIP but also an impressive 0.98 WHIP. In three road starts, Knack has recorded a 2.30 ERA. Behind Knack is a Dodgers bullpen that should have all hands on deck on Thursday. They did use four relievers in last night's contest but none of them threw more than 16 pitches, nor have any of them pitched in back-to-back games. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
07-10-24 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and New York at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Nationals late rally fell just short in a 7-5 defeat at the hands of the Mets. I expect more of the same on Wednesday. The weather forecast should be music to the ears of the hitters with the wind blowing out briskly to left-center and the temperature hovering around 80 degrees. Washington's offense has been terrific lately, ranking sixth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. While New York has cooled off at the plate, it still checks in fourth in baseball in wOBA vs. left-handed pitching this season and it will face one of its favorite punching bags in Patrick Corbin on Wednesday. Note that current Mets hitters are 69-for-221 (.312) off of Corbin with a terrific .926 OPS. Luis Severino will counter for New York. Previously thought to perhaps be a selling chip at the trade deadline, he has struggled over his last couple of outings, allowing 11 earned runs on 17 hits over 13 innings of work. Of course, with the Mets in the thick of the N.L. Wild Card hunt, he's unlikely to be going anywhere. I like the fact that both of these veteran starters have a tendency to work deep into ball games - for better or worse. On a night where the ball should once again be jumping all over Citi Field, we'll back the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
07-10-24 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 9 | 3-4 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Phillies crushed the Dodgers in the opener of this series last night, welcoming back Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, even if those two weren't responsible for much of the damage (Schwarber did have two RBI). I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park. The weather will support the hitters once again on Wednesday with warm, humid conditions (the feel-like temperature is expected to be in the 90's for much of the night) and the wind blowing out to left field. Gavin Stone will get the start for Los Angeles. I've been fairly high on Stone and he's just one start removed from a complete game shutout (that came against the lowly White Sox). For the most part, he has struggled lately, however, not all that surprising as he approaches 100 innings pitched on the season (he threw only 31 big league innings in his rookie campaign last year). Current Phillies hitters haven't seen a lot of Stone, but what they have seen, they've liked, going 8-for-20 with a 1.005 OPS. Left-hander Cris Sanchez will counter for Philadelphia. The Dodgers check in best in baseball in weighted on base average against southpaw pitching this season and a respectable eighth in overall wOBA over the last seven days. We can confidently project a solid bounce-back performance at the plate here. Sanchez has been impressive this season but I've been waiting for the wheels to fall off and we saw signs of that in his last outing as he was tagged for seven earned runs over four innings in a 10-2 loss to the Cubs. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
07-10-24 | Aces v. Storm OVER 173 | 84-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Seattle at 3 pm et on Wednesday. The Aces are clicking right now, winners of seven of their last eight games and fresh off a 104-point explosion in a rout of Dallas on Sunday. I don't expect the Storm to stand in their way defensively but I do think Seattle can put up a fight with a surging offense of its own on Wednesday afternoon. The Storm shook off a poor shooting performance in the first half to rally for a win (and cover) against Chicago on Sunday. Seattle has now won five of its last six games, scoring 89, 97, 95, 88 and 84 points in its last five contests. The last time these two teams met back on June 19th, they combined to score 177 points in Las Vegas. There's no real mathematics or clever angles at play here, I simply feel the oddsmakers have set this total too low. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
07-10-24 | Twins -150 v. White Sox | 1-3 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Twins caught a break with last night's game getting rained out as their bullpen was in ragged shape entering that contest (Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran and Josh Staumont all figured to be unavailable after working the previous two days). Now with a much needed night off behind them, we'll look for the Twins to continue their winning ways in the front half of Wednesday's double-header in Chicago. Bailey Ober gets the start for Minnesota. He's not a front-of-the-rotation starter by any means but has fared well against current White Sox hitters, holding them to 25 hits in 99 at-bats and a .661 OPS. I expect Ober to receive plenty of support here, noting that Minnesota ranks best in baseball in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Erick Fedde will counter for Chicago. Current Twins hitters haven't seen a ton of Fedde but have had moderate success going 10-for-33 at the dish with a .737 OPS. While Fedde has pitched well as a whole this season, he's been alternating good and bad starts lately and comes off a solid outing in Cleveland. His home numbers have been fantastic this season but he's made just one start in the Windy City since the beginning of June (he gave up four earned runs in six innings in a 4-0 loss to the Dodgers at U.S. Cellular Field on June 26th). The White Sox bats have gone back in the tank lately, dropping to 22nd in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days (only two teams have hit fewer home runs over that stretch). Chicago's bullpen isn't all that imposing so the night off doesn't bolster that relief corps as much as it does the Twins. Take Minnesota (8*). |
|||||||
07-09-24 | Lynx v. Sparks +5.5 | 82-67 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Sparks will be looking to avenge a pair of earlier losses to the Lynx on Tuesday. I like their chances of staying inside the number against a Minnesota squad that has been sputtering since winning the Commissioner's Cup on June 25th. The Lynx are 2-3 straight-up since that victory over the Liberty. They survived against the Mystics on Saturday, snapping a two-game skid in the process. Note that they're likely to be without Napheesa Collier - their best offensive player - for a second straight game on Tuesday. The last time they faced the Sparks on June 14th (at home) they won by five points on the strength of a 30-point performance from Collier. Los Angeles dropped a six-point decision at home against Phoenix on Sunday. This is a big spot for the Sparks as they won't take the floor again until Saturday when they head to Dallas to face the Wings. In Sunday's defeat, Sparks guard Aari McDonald shot 1-for-10 from the field. Inconsistency has plagued her over the course of her WNBA career. Keep in mind, she poured in 23 points in a 98-93 upset win over Las Vegas just two games back. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
07-09-24 | Mariners -1.5 v. Padres | 8-3 | Win | 120 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners got their weekend series with the Blue Jays off to a positive start before dropping consecutive games on Saturday and Sunday. I look for them to bounce back as they head to San Diego for an Interleague series against the Padres on Tuesday. Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He didn't have his best stuff last time out and paid the price against an elite Orioles offense, allowing four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. On the season, he owns a 3.43 FIP and 0.92 WHIP and I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Current Padres hitters are 7-for-48 against Gilbert with a putrid .441 OPS. Note that San Diego ranks 17th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days, cooling from a recent red hot run at the plate. Rookie Adam Mazur will counter for San Diego. He remains in the starting rotation out of necessity only as things certainly haven't gone well for him at the big league level. Mazur checks in sporting a 5.45 FIP and 1.82 WHIP in six starts this season. Any time we can back the Mariners terrific bullpen when fully rested (they were off Monday), we'll give them strong consideration. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
07-08-24 | Rockies v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. If you're looking for offensive fireworks on Monday I think you might want to look elsewhere. The Rockies check in ranked 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. They're coming off a 10-1 beatdown against the Royals on Sunday (Colorado did take two of three games in that series). As much as the Rockies would like to bounce back on Monday, they rank 29th in baseball in wOBA on the road. Cincinnati is a miserable 28th in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days and while Great American Ballpark is known as a hitter-friendly venue, the Reds check in 25th in home wOBA this season and 21st in home runs hit at home. While the temperature is expected to be in the 90's at gametime, that's been more than factored into this total in my opinion. The wind isn't expected to be much of a factor, blowing lightly from right to left. While the starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired, that's just par for the course in a matchup between these two teams and neither boasts a true staff ace. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
07-08-24 | Mets v. Pirates -110 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 12:35 pm et on Monday. We'll back the Pirates in Monday's series-finale against the Mets as they send Mitch Keller to the hill against rookie Christian Scott. Scott was recalled for a start last week and now starts on short rest (four days) for the first time in his big league career, and does so after throwing 99 pitches against the Nationals. I don't like the matchup for Scott here as he faces a Pirates club that ranks eighth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Keller has silenced the Mets bats before, holding their current hitters to just seven hits in 60 at-bats including only two extra base hits (both home runs by Jose Iglesias and Jeff McNeil) and a .434 OPS. New York has cooled off considerably at the plate, dropping to 23rd in wOBA over the last seven days. Both bullpens are in similar shape although it's worth noting that the Mets have three different relievers that have worked in each of the last two days and are likely unavailable here. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
|||||||
07-07-24 | BC v. Hamilton +4.5 | 44-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Sunday. While these two teams boast very different records the fact is there's been quite a bit of parity in the CFL this season, with few blowouts and most games going right down to the wire. Hamilton is desperately seeking its first victory of the season and while B.C. certainly offers a difficult challenge, I expect the Ti-Cats to rise to the occasion. The Lions are off to a 3-1 start but none of those wins have come easy. Their biggest margin of victory was nine points against Calgary in Week 2 and they needed to score 12 unanswered points in the later stages of the second half to secure that win. We haven't seen the B.C. offense get rolling the way it did last season. On the flip side, Hamilton's offense has shown considerable improvement with veteran QB Bo Levi Mitchell at the helm. He's enjoying a renaissance season with his new team even if the Ti-Cats don't have the wins to show for it. A big reason for that is Hamilton's terrific offensive line, which rated out as one of the best units in the league entering the campaign. The Ti-Cats are expected to have RB James Butler back on the field for this week's game after he was forced to miss last Sunday's last-second loss in Ottawa. WR Tim White is coming off his best game of the season, hauling in eight catches for 118 yards and a touchdown. Note that these two teams split a pair of matchups last season with Hamilton winning in blowout fashion in Vancouver and the Lions prevailing by just three points here at Tim Hortons Field. Take Hamilton (8*). |
|||||||
07-07-24 | Sky v. Storm -8.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Chicago at 6 pm et on Sunday. The Sky took the opener of this two-game set in Seattle on Friday as rookie Angel Reese extended her double-double streak to 12 games. The win served as successful revenge for Chicago after it dropped an earlier matchup at home against the Storm. For Seattle, the loss snapped a four-game winning streak (with all four of those wins coming by double-digits). I look for the Storm to answer back on Sunday, noting that Chicago was never really able to pull away on Friday despite Seattle clearly having an off night. This is a key spot for the Storm as their schedule will only get tougher with visits from Las Vegas and Minnesota on deck this coming week. Chicago on the other hand will have an eye on a return home, already feeling pretty good about itself after winning the first two games (both in upset fashion) of this road trip. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
07-07-24 | Blue Jays v. Mariners UNDER 7 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. Seattle's offense continues to slumber and doesn't figure to get any better with Julio Rodriguez likely sidelined due to injury (he was slated to get an MRI after leaving yesterday's game). At the time of writing, the Mariners rank 29th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Of course, Toronto hasn't been a lot better in that department. The Jays rank 25th in wOBA over the last seven days. They'll face a tall task in Mariners starter George Kirby on Sunday afternoon. He has posted Cy Young Award caliber numbers so far this season, logging a 2.97 FIP and 0.98 WHIP. Jose Berrios will get the start for the Blue Jays. Current Mariners hitters have gone just 15-for-84 against him including only two extra base hits. The weather conditions figure to favor the pitchers on a relatively cool but sunny afternoon in Seattle, with the wind blowing from left to right at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
07-06-24 | Royals -170 v. Rockies | 1-3 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Colorado at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rockies took the opener of this series last night - their second straight victory. The Royals have been reeling lately but I do look for them to get back in the win column on Saturday. Seth Lugo will get the start for Kansas City. He's been lights out over his last two starts, tossing 12 shutout innings while allowing only six hits, striking out 18 and walking three. On the season, Lugo owns a 3.21 FIP and 1.03 WHIP. Note that the Rockies rank 25th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days and 27th over the last 14 days. Austin Gomber will counter for Colorado. He's been generally awful since the beginning of June with the Rockies dropping five of his last six starts. He'll be pitching on only four days' rest on Saturday. The last time we saw him do that he was clubbed for 11 hits and eight earned runs in three innings in a 17-9 loss in Minnesota. If there was a positive to take away from last night's game for the Royals it was that they needed to use only one reliever in the loss. They're set up well in that regard on Saturday at Coors Field. Take Kansas City (8*). |
|||||||
07-06-24 | Phillies v. Braves +100 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez is one of the early contenders for the National League Cy Young Award and rightfully so as he has logged a 2.85 FIP and 0.99 WHIP through 17 starts. With that being said, he's not invincible, as we saw in his most recent outing as he was tagged for six earned runs on 10 hits over just 4 2/3 innings against the Marlins. Philadelphia actually rallied for a 7-6 victory in that contest but is still just 1-2 in Suarez's last three starts. The Braves are certainly familiar with Suarez, logging a collective 126 at-bats against him (their current hitters that is). Those 126 at-bats have been productive as they've recorded an .819 OPS. Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has been better than his 5.68 ERA indicates as he has posted a 4.01 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP in six big league starts. The Braves have gone just 1-5 in those six games as they've given the rookie three runs or less to work with in all six contests. Note that Atlanta does rank inside the top-10 in weighted on base average against left-handed pitching this season (entering last night's action). Meanwhile the Phillies red hot bats have cooled off slightly, dropping to 16th in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days (also entering Friday's action). Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
07-06-24 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. |
|||||||
07-06-24 | Calgary +9.5 v. Montreal | 26-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Alouettes are one of only two remaining undefeated CFL teams, sitting at 4-0 following last week's impressive 30-20 win in Toronto. While Saturday's home date with the Stampeders looks like another layup at first glance, I'm expecting Calgary to put up a fight, just as it has in all three previous games this season. The Stampeders are somewhat surprisingly off to a 2-1 start this season. Their only failed pointspread cover came by a hair in a nine-point loss on the road against B.C. (the Lions scored nine unanswered points in the fourth quarter including a field goal with 30 seconds remaining). Keep in mind, in that loss in Vancouver, the Stamps still would have stayed inside the spread we're working with on Saturday. For Montreal, you could certainly envision a letdown here after consecutive wins over the division-rival RedBlacks and Argos. Based on what the players and coaches are saying, Calgary is clearly treating this game as a 'no one believes in us' situation and that can often work out well for an underdog (at least from an ATS perspective). Take Calgary (8*). |
|||||||
07-05-24 | Orioles -1.5 v. A's | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The A's are coming off a series sweep of the division-rival Angels but I expect them to get snapped back to reality by the Orioles on Friday night. Baltimore is coming off a loss in Seattle yesterday as the Mariners avoided the sweep thanks to a late game offensive surge. I don't think the O's will have such difficulty against an A's club that ranks in the bottom-third of the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. The O's will be in their preferred position on Friday and that's facing a left-handed starter in Hogan Harris. Note that Baltimore ranks fourth in baseball in wOBA vs. southpaw pitching this season. Only the Mets have recorded a better wOBA overall over the last two weeks. Albert Suarez will look to continue his magical season for the O's. Last time out he tossed six innings of three-hit shutout ball against the Rangers, lowering his FIP to 3.29 and his WHIP to 1.25. You could argue that the A's bullpen is in far better shape following consecutive masterful outings from their starters but I'm not sure that it will matter on this occasion as the O's bats should come to life at the Coliseum. Take Baltimore -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
07-05-24 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg -2.5 | Top | 16-25 | Win | 100 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Ottawa at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The West Division is quickly getting away from the Blue Bombers as they're off to an 0-4 start with the Lions and Roughriders sitting at 3-1 and 3-0, respectively. This isn't a must-win game for Winnipeg, but it's as close as it gets. Ottawa is 2-1 but could just as easily be 1-2 as it came away victorious thanks to a last-second field goal against Hamilton last weekend. The one time we saw the RedBlacks hit the road this season they were blasted 47-21 in Montreal. This is actually a rematch of a Week 2 matchup between these two teams that saw Ottawa prevail by a 23-19 score at home. Bombers QB Zach Collaros is questionable to play on Thursday but this one should be all about RB Brady Oliveira - one of the CFL's best players - after he missed that first matchup with Ottawa this season. I like Winnipeg's chances of finally getting into the win column. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
|||||||
07-05-24 | Dream v. Wings -125 | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas moneyline over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday. This isn't a must-win game for Dallas but it's close as the Wings desperately need to turn the tide in the weeks leading up to the Olympic break. Knowing that it will face a daunting two-game road trip that will take it to Las Vegas and Phoenix next, I look for Dallas to rise to the occasion at home against Atlanta on Friday. The Dream aren't exactly setting the league on fire right now. They've won just once in their last six games and that victory came against a Connecticut squad that was playing the second of back-to-backs following an overtime affair the night previous. Atlanta suffered a blow learning that Jordin Canada will be out for an extended period due to a broken finger. She played all 40 minutes and chipped in 11 points and seven assists in Tuesday's loss to the Sky. Her absence puts even more pressure on aging superstar Tina Charles to take on much of the scoring burden. Dallas let Atlanta off the hook in the first matchup between these two teams this season, letting an eight-point halftime lead slip away in an eventual 83-78 road defeat. Look for the Wings to get their revenge on Friday. Take Dallas moneyline (8*). |
|||||||
07-05-24 | Mets v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 2-14 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Friday. This total has bumped up slightly and that has a lot to do with the weather forecast with temperatures at first pitch expected to be in the high-80's with the wind blowing out to center. We'll go the other way and back the 'under' in what should be a well-pitched affair. Luis Severino will get the start for the visiting Mets. He wasn't at his best in his most recent outing but he was also facing a red hot Astros offense. He still gave up just four earned runs in seven innings in that outing. On the season, Severino has recorded a 3.98 FIP and 1.16 WHIP. Note that he'll be facing a Pirates club that ranks 28th in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Paul Skenes will counter for Pittsburgh. He's obviously been one of the premier pitchers in baseball since getting the call up to the big club. Skenes owns a 2.60 FIP and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts to date. The Mets offense has cooled off considerably this week and ranks 19th in wOBA over the last seven days. The Mets bullpen should have all hands on deck for this one after needing only one reliever in yesterday's 1-0 loss in Washington. Pittsburgh's relief corps doesn't boast the same depth but that can be negated by Skenes working deep into this contest, as I'm expecting. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
07-04-24 | Mystics v. Aces -16 | 77-98 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Washington at 10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Aces laying the points two nights ago against the Fever and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they stay home to host the Mystics on Thursday. Las Vegas is rolling right now having won five straight games but it still has its work cut out for it as it sits in third place in the West sporting an 11-6 record. We've seen that poise and focus we expected from the Aces earlier in the campaign in recent weeks and I don't expect them to take Thursday's matchup with the Mystics for granted keeping in mind these two teams were involved in what was perhaps a closer-than-expected 88-77 affair in favor of Las Vegas in Washington last Saturday. The Mystics secured a narrow 82-80 win in Los Angeles two nights ago. Washington has been punching above its class lately but I don't like the spot here as it looks to builds on that rare road victory. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
|||||||
07-04-24 | Rays v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen a pair of relatively low-scoring games between these two teams to open this series but I'm looking for a different story to unfold in Thursday's finale at Kauffman Stadium. The weather conditions will be fairly neutral for Thursday's contest but certainly won't favor the pitchers with the wind blowing lightly from left-to-right or even out to right field and temperatures hovering around 80 degrees. In general, Kauffman Stadium has played a little more hitter-friendly this season (for their part, the Royals average 5.1 runs per game at home compared to 3.8 on the road). Zach Eflin will get the start for the Rays. His overall numbers are baffling good this season, largely thanks to his ability to avoid costly walks (he's issued just seven walks all season). Much of his success has come at home, however. On the road he has given up 4, 3, 2, 4, 3, 3 and 4 earned runs over his last seven outings. Current Royals hitters are 12-for-38 (.316) against him including five extra base hits. Alec Marsh will counter for Kansas City. While current Rays hitters haven't seen much of him, going just 3-for-12, all three of those hits went for extra bases. Marsh did pitch well in his most recent outings but those type of starts have been few-and-far-between lately as he has given up three earned runs or more in five of his last seven starts and five or more in three of those. Two of the Royals key relievers, Chris Stratton and John Schreiber, have worked in each of the last two nights and as a result likely aren't available on Thursday. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
07-04-24 | Angels +100 v. A's | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. The A's have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Angels to salvage Thursday's finale in Oakland. Los Angeles' bats went silent in last night's defeat, allowing A's starter Joey Estes to go the distance for a rare complete game shutout. Today, the Angels will be facing A's left-hander J.P. Sears. Note that Los Angeles has been better against southpaws than righties this season, ranking 11th in the majors in weighted on base average vs. left-handed pitching. Sears owns a 4.89 FIP and 1.31 WHIP this season and the A's are 3-4 in his seven home starts. Roansy Contreras will counter for the Angels. He has served as more of an 'opener' than anything else and isn't likely to work deep into this game on Thursday. He'll be facing an A's club that ranks 27th in wOBA vs. right-handed pitching this season and 20th overall over the last seven days. Los Angeles' bullpen is in fairly good shape with only Carson Fulmer and Matt Moore working in last night's lopsided affair. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
07-04-24 | White Sox v. Guardians -208 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Chicago at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. With this being a divisional series, the White Sox were never going to simply roll over for the Guardians. After Cleveland eked out a walk-off victory in the opener on Tuesday, Chicago exacted its revenge with a blowout victory last night. I fully expect the Guardians to respond on Thursday. Even if it is against one of baseball's worst teams, this is a key series for Cleveland after dropping three of four games in Kansas City last weekend. Ben Lively is expected to get the start for the Guardians while the White Sox have yet to announce their starter. Cleveland did drop Lively's most recent start but it had little to do with his pitching as he gave up just two earned runs over six innings against Kansas City. Note that the Guardians have yet to lose consecutive Lively starts this season, going 8-5 with him on the hill. There haven't been a lot of smoke and mirrors involved either as Lively has recorded a respectable 4.24 FIP and 1.16 WHIP. Given last night's lopsided result in favor of the White Sox, the Guardians bullpen remains in good shape entering Thursday's contest (keep in mind both teams were off on Monday). This is a situation where the steep price is warranted to back the vastly superior team. Take Cleveland (8*). |
|||||||
07-03-24 | Orioles v. Mariners -117 | 4-1 | Loss | -117 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Baltimore at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Orioles took the opener of this series last night, handing the Mariners their third straight defeat. I look for Seattle to bounce back on Wednesday as it hands the ball to Logan Gilbert against Dean Kremer of the O's. Gilbert has certainly served the Mariners well when he's taken the mound this season as they've won each of his last four starts and he has allowed just five earned runs in 28 2/3 innings of work over that stretch. On the season, Gilbert owns a solid 3.35 FIP and an outstanding 0.88 WHIP. Current Orioles hitters are just 4-for-20 in limited looks against Gilbert. Kremer will make his return to the O's starting rotation for the first time since May after struggling in rehab outings at the Triple-A level. Current Mariners hitters are just 14-for-55 off of the right-hander but four different players have homered off of him. Despite the .255 batting average, Mariners hitters have recorded a terrific .844 OPS against Kremer. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
07-03-24 | Padres +132 v. Rangers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 132 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. It may come as a surprise that the Padres rank second in the majors (entering last night's action) in weighted on base average vs. right-handed pitching this season. Coincidentally, they also went into last night's contest ranked third in baseball in wOBA over the last 14 days. Rookie Adam Mazur will be tasked with keeping the Rangers bats at bay on Wednesday. A second-round pick in the 2022 Draft, Mazur is in the Padres starting rotation out of necessity only. While his numbers aren't great by any means, San Diego has had Mazur on a pretty short leash, most recently pulling him after just five innings and 55 pitches in an eventual 9-7 win over the Nationals. In fact, the Padres have won each of Mazur's last two outings even though he didn't last beyond the fifth inning in either of them. I'll certainly give the edge to the Padres bullpen in this game should the latter innings be when proceedings are settled. To be honest, I'm not sure that will be how this one plays out as San Diego should get to Rangers starter Jon Gray early on. Gray is one start removed from tossing six shutout innings against the Royals but followed up that performance by allowing eight earned runs in five innings against the Orioles. In fact, Gray has given up at least eight earned runs in two of his last three starts. Current Padres hitters have worn out Gray throughout his career, going 31-for-87 with 13 extra base hits including six home runs. Manny Machado has blasted four of those long balls. Take San Diego (10*). |
|||||||
07-03-24 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup on our hands in Chicago on Wednesday and with favorable weather conditions (relatively cool temperatures in the low-70's and the wind blowing lightly from right to left) I'm expecting runs to come at a premium. Zack Wheeler gets the start for Philadelphia. He owns a 3.32 FIP and 0.98 WHIP on the season and just to indicate how strong his track record is, that's the highest FIP he's recorded since back in 2019 when he logged a 3.48 FIP. Since giving up eight earned run sin a start in Baltimore on June 16th, Wheeler has held his last two opponents to three earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Shota Imanaga will counter for the Cubs. He also turned in a recent train wreck of a start but bounced back in his most recent outing, allowing just three earned runs on five hits over six frames against the Giants. Imanaga has posted a 3.24 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season. With Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber sidelined, the Phillies offense has cooled somewhat over the last week as they rank 12th in baseball in weighted on base average over that stretch. Of course, the Cubs offense has struggled for much of the campaign and they check in a middling 15th in wOBA over the last week. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
07-03-24 | Astros -105 v. Blue Jays | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
American League Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams have split the first two games in this series although the Blue Jays were barely able to make a big lead stand up in last night's victory. I like Houston's chances of answering back on Wednesday as it hands the ball to Ronel Blanco against Yusei Kikuchi of the Jays. Blanco has been a winner for the Astros this season, plain and simple. Houston has gone 11-4 in his 15 previous outings and it all started with a no-hitter against these same Blue Jays back on April 1st. While Blanco didn't have his best stuff last time out, that was against a red hot Mets offense. I look for him to fare considerably better against the feast-or-famine Jays lineup here. Kikuchi hasn't been good lately, or as a whole this season. And the Astros have a pretty good track record against him with their current hitters having gone a combined 25-for-84 including 17 extra base hits. They've tagged seven home runs off the left-hander with Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Jake Meyers all taking him out of the park multiple times in 22 or fewer at-bats (Meyers has only faced him six times). The Astros were able to keep all of their key bullpen arms idle thanks to trailing virtually wire-to-wire last night. Meanwhile, the Jays continue to miss closer Jordan Romano and his stand-in replacement Yimi Garcia due to injury. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
07-02-24 | Fever v. Aces -13.5 | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Indiana at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Fever are coming off an upset win in Phoenix on Sunday afternoon as Caitlin Clark's captivating rookie campaign continued. Let's pump the brakes a little on Indiana's fortunes moving forward, however. That victory on Sunday only served to snap a two-game slide. It will be making its second stop in Las Vegas this season with its previous matchup on this floor resulting in a 19-point loss back in late-May. I like the Aces chances of delivering a similar result here. Las Vegas has and extra day of rest advantage having not played since Saturday's 88-77 win over Washington. The Aces have reeled off four straight wins, all coming by double-digit margins. While the first meeting between these two teams this season was played at Michelob Ultra Arena, this one will be on a bigger stage at T-Mobile Arena. I expect the big game feel to serve as extra motivation for the hometown Aces as they look to upstage Clark and the Fever for a second time this season. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
|||||||
07-02-24 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. With the temperature forecast to be in the high-80's and the wind blowing out to left-center, we can project Progressive Field to be a hitter's paradise on Tuesday. The starting pitching matchup plays into the hitters' favor as well with Chris Flexen going for the White Sox against Carlos Carrasco of the Guardians. While current Guardians hitters haven't seen a lot of Flexen, what they have, they've liked. Five different Cleveland hitters have faced him at least twice, going a combined 5-for-15. That includes an 0-for-2 from Steven Kwan, who just happens to be one of the best hitters in baseball this season. Flexen owns a 5.13 ERA and 1.41 WHIP this season and for his career, opponents have an OPS of .803. Carrasco was awful for the Mets last season and a return back to Cleveland hasn't provided much of a boost as he's logged a 5.27 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. Opponents have recorded an .826 OPS against him. While the White Sox have one of baseball's worst offenses, they should be happy to be facing Carrasco on Tuesday noting that current Chicago hitters have gone 22-for-72 (.306) off of him with 10 extra base hits including five home runs. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
07-02-24 | White Sox v. Guardians -190 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Chicago at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Guardians are licking their wounds after dropping three of four games in Kansas City. The good news is they had the day off on Monday and will look to regroup and get back on track at home against the lowly White Sox on Tuesday. While Carlos Carrasco doesn't inspire a ton of confidence on the mound for Cleveland, I do like backing the Guardians with a rested bullpen, as is the case here. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more effective group of relievers than that the Guardians possess this season. Should Carrasco struggle, there's still reason for optimism. Chris Flexen is a prototypical back-of-the-rotation starter that continues to take his regular turn for the White Sox out of necessity only. The difference is, Chicago doesn't have that elite bullpen to fall back on. This is a true 'get-right' spot for the better team playing at home. Take Cleveland (8*). |
|||||||
07-01-24 | Wings v. Storm OVER 169 | Top | 71-95 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Seattle at 10 pm et on Monday. This same matchup resulted in 173 total points two nights ago and would have likely eclipsed the 180-point mark were it not for Seattle calling off the dogs after building a 20+ point lead after three quarters. I do think this rematch has the potential to be more competitive, leading to more late scoring. We haven't seen enough of an adjustment to the total on Monday. I'm not sure casual bettors realize just how bad Dallas is defensively. The Wings have employed a matador-like defensive style, allowing five of their last eight opponents to score 90 or more points in regulation time. I do think we'll see a better offensively showing from Dallas on Monday, noting it is just one game removed from hanging 94 points on Minnesota in an upset win last Thursday. Seattle has one of the more underrated players in the league in Jewell Loyd. The former first overall draft pick has poured in 64 points over the last two games and averages just shy of 20 points per game on the season. Consider that these two teams got into the 170's on Saturday despite connecting on just 11 three-point attempts combined. Yes, it was a parade to the free throw line for the Storm, something that isn't likely to be repeated on Monday but I still see little reason to stray from the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
07-01-24 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Monday. While it won't be overly warm at the ballpark for Canada Day festivities in Toronto on Monday, the wind will be blowing out to center and this series-opener between the Astros and Blue Jays sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Houston will hand the ball to Hunter Brown. He's admittedly been terrific over his last four starts. But let's keep things in perspective. He still owns a FIP well north of four and a lofty 1.37 WHIP this season. You might not find a more manageable four-start stretch than what Brown just faced, on the road against the Angels, at home against the Tigers, on the road against the White Sox and at home against the Rockies. Note that the Blue Jays rank third in weighted on base average over the last seven days and are still top-10 in that department over the last 14 days as well. Houston's bullpen is in rough shape entering Monday's affair with three key relievers having worked each of the last two days. In fact, the Astros were forced to use seven different relievers in yesterday's ball game after sending four to the mound on Saturday. Yariel Rodriguez will get a spot start for Toronto. He's not likely to work deep into this ball game and like the Astros, the Blue Jays bullpen is entering overworked territory. For his part, Rodriguez hasn't made a smooth transition to the bigs, sporting a 4.84 FIP and 1.92 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings of work this season. The Astros check in sixth in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days and also sixth in that department against right-handed pitching this season. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
07-01-24 | Slovenia v. Portugal OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Knockout Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Portugal and Slovenia at 3 pm et on Monday. The fact that both of these teams failed to find the back of the net in their most recent matches here in Germany might give some bettors reason for pause in advance of Monday's knockout stage affair. I won't hesitate to back the 'over' in this rematch of a friendly contest back in March - a game that was won 2-0 by Slovenia. We know what Portugal is capable of. It recorded a whopping five goals in its first two matches here at Euro 2024 prior to a tentative approach against Georgia (it lost 2-0). I expect the Portuguese to get back on their front foot for this one and project that two goals will be in the offing on Monday. The question becomes whether Slovenia will have any answers in a match where it is unlikely to enjoy much of the possession. I believe that it can find one goal - cutting its production in half from that previous meeting in March. Portugal keeper Diogo Costa hasn't looked particularly sure of himself in this tournament and Slovenia isn't without striking prowess up front in Benjamin Sesko and Andraz Sporar. Note that Slovenia has seen both teams score in four of its last five contests while Portugal has had five of its last six matches go over 2.5 total goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-30-24 | Lynx v. Sky UNDER 163.5 | 70-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the under between Minnesota and Chicago at 3 pm et on Sunday. The Lynx are coming off a string of high scoring games but that’s not really their identity. Minnesota is one of the leagues best defensive teams and should be able to handle the improving Sky on Sunday. Both teams come in rested having not played since Thursday and I look for plenty of defensive intensity in this afternoon affair. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-30-24 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 9 | 4-2 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the over between Pittsburgh and Atlanta at 11:35 am et on Sunday. Travel day on Sunday. Full analysis returns on Monday. With the forecast temps in the high 80’s and the wind blowing out well back the over with a subpar pitching matchup on deck in Atlanta on Sunday. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-29-24 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Baltimore at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. With temperatures expected to approach 90 degrees and the wind forecast to be blowing out to left field, this game sets up as a potential slugfest. Of course, we saw only three total runs in last night's contest between these two teams with the Orioles prevailing by a 2-1 score. Tonight's starting pitching matchup will feature Michael Lorenzen for the Rangers and rookie Cade Povich for the O's. Lorenzen's 3.04 ERA doesn't tell the whole story as he has recorded an inflated 4.70 FIP. Povich will start on short rest (four days) and hasn't fared all that well at the best of times this season, posting a 4.58 FIP in four outings. The Rangers bullpen has been various shades of awful this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Meanwhile, the O's 'pen carried an ERA north of six over the last seven days into last night's affair. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-29-24 | Padres v. Red Sox -138 | 11-1 | Loss | -138 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox got drilled in the opener of this series last night but I look for them to bounce back with arguably their best starter taking the ball in Tanner Houck on Saturday. We've been waiting for regression from Padres starter Michael King and this is as good a spot as any with the wind forecast to be blowing out to left on Saturday afternoon in Boston. Look for the Red Sox bats to come alive and deliver a bounce-back win in front of the home faithful. Take Boston (8*). |
|||||||
06-29-24 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Cardinals outlasted the Reds 1-0. I expect nothing of the sort on a warm, muggy Saturday afternoon at Busch Stadium, with the wind blowing straight out to center. The pitching matchup features Carson Spiers for the Reds and Sonny Gray for the Cardinals. Spiers has made four career big league starts including two this season, allowing at least three earned runs in each. Gray continues to pitch well but I'm willing to take a flyer with a Reds team that has been feast-or-famine from an offensive standpoint lately and comes off the shutout defeat last night. We don't need anything close to a slugfest to cash this ticket and that makes it attractive given the favorable weather conditions. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-28-24 | Guardians -118 v. Royals | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Guardians bats went cold in last night's 2-1 defeat to open this series in Kansas City. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday. Triston McKenzie will get another turn in the starting rotation for the Guardians. His season hasn't gone as planned as he checks in sporting a 4.66 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The fact that he hasn't missed a single turn indicates that the Guardians feel that he is healthy. I do think he has the tools to turn things around and a matchup with the Royals should promote confidence, noting that McKenzie owns a career 7-3 team record against them with a 3.09 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Even if McKenzie struggles again here, the Guardians haven't been afraid to pull him early and their terrific bullpen is in good shape after using only two relievers in last night's game. Keep in mind, the Royals are last in baseball in weighted on base average in both the last 14 and seven days. While McKenzie has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, the Royals are also tied for last in the majors in home runs over the last couple of weeks. Alex Marsh will counter for Kansas City. He couldn't even make it through the third inning in his lone previous start against the Guardians this season. While Marsh has mixed in a few terrific outings this season, the majority of those came earlier in the season. He's allowed 24 earned runs over his last six starts, covering a span of 32 2/3 innings. The Royals have one of baseball's least reliable bullpens, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.32 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 20 saves converted and 12 blown. The weather conditions don't figure to aid either pitching staff on Friday with warm temperatures expected and the wind blowing out to left-center. Take Cleveland (10*). |
|||||||
06-28-24 | Dream v. Sun UNDER 152.5 | 78-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Connecticut at 7:30 pm et on Friday. This projects to be one of the slower-paced games we'll see in today's WNBA with the Dream checking in off three straight losses (both SU and ATS) but having not played since Saturday and the Sun fresh off an overtime victory in Washington last night (at the tail-end of a three-game road trip that took them to the west coast). Atlanta should come in determined to turn things around defensively after allowing its last two opponents to shoot 57% and 51% from the field. It catches the Sun in a favorable spot here as playing back-to-backs is rare in the WNBA. I'm not expecting Connecticut to suddenly push the pace in this situation. The Sun are an elite defensive team and figure to lock down the Dream, noting that Atlanta has shot worse than 42% from the field in three straight and nine of its last 11 games overall. We've seen three straight meetings in this series stay 'under' the total including a matchup that reached just 119 total points earlier this season. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-28-24 | Pirates v. Braves -165 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Pittsburgh at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The Braves are coming off a 1-0 loss in a rescheduled game against the White Sox in Chicago yesterday. While their offense was non-existent in that contest, I expect them to experience no such difficulty in Friday's date with the Pirates. Martin Perez will make his return to the Buccos starting rotation. Things haven't gone well for the veteran left-hander this season as he has posted a 4.71 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 57 1/3 innings of work. He'll be up against a Braves club that ranks top-10 in the majors in weighted on base average at home this season. Not only that but current Braves hitters have had success against Perez, hitting a collective .279 with a .775 OPS in 68 previous at-bats. Charlie Morton will be looking to bounce back from a poor outing in the Bronx for the Braves. He's been alternating good and bad starts and should be in line for a positive performance here, noting that current Pirates hitters are just 11-for-53 (.208) off of him with an OPS of .691. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in baseball in weighted on base average against right-handed pitching this season. Both bullpens should have 'all hands on deck' for this series opener but we'll give the considerable edge to the Braves in that department. Atlanta's 'pen has posted a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP this season (entering yesterday's action) while Pittsburgh's has logged a 4.76 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Take Atlanta (8*). |
|||||||
06-27-24 | Cubs v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. We fell just short with the total in this game last night as seven runs were scored in the first five innings but none the rest of the way. I don't expect to suffer the same fate on Thursday. Chicago will hand the ball to Shota Imanaga. After a red hot start to his big league career, he's been shaky in recent outings, allowing at least seven earned runs twice in his last five starts. He's given up seven home runs over that stretch and that's notable as the wind is forecast to be blowing out to left-center at AT&T Park on a pleasant Thursday afternoon. Jordan Hicks will counter for San Francisco. Like Imanaga, he's run into a rough patch lately, allowing 14 earned runs over his last five outings. The biggest problem for the Giants might not be Hicks but instead an overworked bullpen. The majority of San Francisco's relief arms have been pressed into duty over the last two nights with Tyler Rogers and closer Camilo Doval working both (and likely unavailable on Thursday). Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-27-24 | Lynx v. Wings +9.5 | 88-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm et on Thursday. If consecutive losses in Washington doesn't represent rock-bottom for the reeling Wings, I'm not sure what will. Dallas has now dropped 11 straight games and finds itself as a considerable home underdog in a double-revenge spot against Minnesota on Thursday afternoon. I do like the way this situation sets up for the Wings as the Lynx left it all on the floor in a hard-fought, high-scoring win over the Liberty in Tuesday's Commissioner's Cup Championship Game. Note that the Wings are 2-1 in three home games against the Lynx going back to the start of the 2022 season, with the lone loss coming by nine points. I have this game projected to be slower-paced than most WNBA affairs and that also favors the home underdog catching so many points on Thursday afternoon. Take Dallas (8*). |
|||||||
06-27-24 | Lynx v. Wings UNDER 163 | 88-94 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 1 pm et on Thursday. This play sets up well following the Lynx's incredibly high-scoring victory over the Liberty in the Commissioner's Cup Championship Game two nights ago. Minnesota is still one of the league's more slower-paced teams and it will look to dictate the tempo and suck the life out of a down-trodden Wings squad that has lost 11 games in a row in this early start matchup on Thursday. For Dallas, there's no path to victory in a track meet against the ultra-talented Lynx. The Wings will need to 'ugly it up' and try to keep the score down in order to keep this game competitive. Again, they do have a couple of things working for them with this early start at home with Minnesota coming off that battle against New York less than 48 hours ago. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-26-24 | Cubs v. Giants OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. I think we're in for a high-scoring game at AT&T Park on Wednesday night. The starting pitching matchup will feature a battle of Hayden's - Wesneski for the Cubs and Birdsong for the Giants. In the case of Birdsong, he'll be making his big league debut. While he is a highly-touted prospect he's not a blue-chipper by any means, drafted in the sixth round, 196th overall. The Cubs have been waiting for an opportunity to bust out at the plate and I feel this is a favorable spot. Both starters will be contending with the weather conditions in this one with a strong wind forecast to be blowing out toward McCovey Cove in right field. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. The Cubs relief corps has posted a 5.23 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven days while the Giants 'pen has recorded a 4.55 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-26-24 | Yankees v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Yankees and Mets at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw 16 runs in the opener of this two-game Subway Series last night and I expect another high-scoring affair on Wednesday. The hitting conditions figure to be favorable again in this one with substantial winds blowing out to left and temperatures in the low-80s. Luis Gil will get the start for the Yankees. He was rocked in his most recent start and now faces a red hot Mets lineup. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team hitting as well as the Mets right now as they've produced seven more runs in five of their last eight games. Sean Manaea figures to be in the wrong place at the wrong time for the Mets. The left-hander faces a potent Yankees lineup that fell just short in last night's rally. He owns a 4.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-26-24 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams combined for 18 hits and 12 runs in last night's ball game at Angel Stadium and I expect more of the same on Wednesday afternoon. We have a subpar starting pitching matchup on tap with Joey Estes going for the A's and Roansy Contreras for the Angels. Estes remains in the Oakland starting rotation out of necessity only while Contreras is only getting a spot start and doesn't figure to work deep into the contest. The weather supports our play with warm afternoon temperatures forecast in Anaheim with the wind blowing straight out to center. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-26-24 | Marlins v. Royals -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Miami at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Marlins eked out a 2-1 victory over the Royals last night, evening this series at a game apiece entering Wednesday's rubber match. I like Kansas City's chances of securing a comfortable victory in this one. Valente Bellozo is slated to get his first big league start for the Marlins. He has posted respectable numbers at the Double-A level this season but didn't fare so well when levelling up to Triple-A, recording a 5.66 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings of work. Bellozo has been toiling around the Minors since 2018, never getting the call to the big club so while this is a huge game for him, I don't expect the Royals - desperate to break out of their funk at the plate - will take it easy on him. Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. He checks in sporting a 4.12 FIP and 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts this season. In eight home outings he has logged a 3.04 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. While the Marlins did get the win last night, it had little to do with their offensive production. In a game they'll likely have to patch together on the mound, I suspect they'll need to score a lot more to stay competitive. The problem is they rank 29th in baseball in weighted on-base average this season (only the White Sox are worse). Royals roll. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
06-26-24 | Mariners -114 v. Rays | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Tampa Bay at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners are mired in an extended slump right now but have the right pitcher on the mound to help avoid a series sweep in St. Petersburg on Wednesday. George Kirby gets the start. The right-hander finished sixth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting two years ago and was an All-Star and finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season. He's arguably having an even better season here in 2024 having logged a 3.16 FIP and 0.99 WHIP through 16 starts. In three career outings against the Rays, Kirby has posted a 2.79 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Ryan Pepiot will counter for Tampa Bay. He's had an up-and-down season so far but it's been mostly down lately as he checks in having allowed seven earned runs over his last two starts covering a span of just eight innings. Walks and home runs have been an issue for the right-hander and this sets up as a difficult matchup in that regard as the Mariners sit inside the top-10 in baseball in both home runs and walk percentage. There's no real advantage in this game as far as the bullpens are concerned but I will point out the fact that the Mariners have a number of key relievers that got the night off last night including Austin Voth, Trent Thornton, Ryne Stanek and closer Andres Munoz. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
06-25-24 | Lynx v. Liberty UNDER 162.5 | Top | 94-89 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and New York at 8 pm et on Tuesday. This game was originally supposed to be played at Barclay's Center in Brooklyn but was forced to move to UBS Arena due to the NBA Draft being held at the former this week. Regardless of the setting, I'm expecting a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair in the final of the Commissioner's Cup. This matchup pits two of the league's best defensive teams. It will actually be the second meeting between the Lynx and Liberty this season after Minnesota rolled to an 84-67 home victory back in late-May. Minnesota enters this game in peak form defensively having held its last two opponents to just 19 and 23 made field goals. Of course, the Liberty will offer a difficult challenge as they head into this game on the heels of an incredible six straight contests scoring 90 points or more. Note that Minnesota has allowed more than 80 points in only four of 16 games this season. On the flip side, the Lynx are one of the slower-paced teams in the league and are likely to employ a similar gameplan here knowing just how explosive the Liberty offense is. While New York doesn't bring the same elite defensive form into this game, that's not to say it can't step up in that regard. The Liberty have held seven of their last 10 opponents to worse than 45% shooting. The Lynx have made good on more than 30 field goals just once in their last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-25-24 | Guardians v. Orioles -133 | 10-8 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Cleveland at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. While it may only be a Tuesday in late-June, this is a big game for the Orioles as they look to stop the bleeding and snap out of their four-game slide. Last night's series-opener between these two teams could have gone either way. Guardians starter Tanner Bibee settled in after some early missteps and the bullpen took care of the rest in a 3-2 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as Logan Allen and his 5.52 FIP and 1.48 WHIP takes the ball for the visitors. Allen will be pitching on short rest (four days) and that's notable as the last time we saw him do that he was lit up for seven earned runs over 1 2/3 innings in Colorado on May 29th. Cole Irvin will take the ball for Baltimore. He's coming off a couple of shaky outings but has been quietly having a good year with the O's, logging a 3.78 FIP and 1.25 WHIP through 14 appearances including 12 starts. Baltimore owns an incredible 17-5 record in Irvin's last 22 starts going back to last season. Both bullpens are in similar shape entering this contest. While the Guardians relief corps would appear to hold an edge based on full season numbers, I'm confident it will be the O's pitching with a lead late in this one. Take Baltimore (8*). |
|||||||
06-24-24 | Oilers v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Florida at 8:20 pm et on Monday. This is it. It's a winner-take-all Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final on Monday night in Sunrise and I don't think I'm making all that bold of a prediction in calling for goals to come at a premium. Yes, the series has turned rather high-scoring in favor of the Oilers over the last three games. In fact, the 'over' has come through in four straight contests after three consecutive 'unders' to open the series. That's notable as the 'under' has gone 5-1 with the Oilers coming off four straight 'over' results this season (and 61-41 in their last 102 games in that situation). Additionally, the 'under' is 6-0 with Edmonton coming off three straight victories by two goals or more this season. I think it's going to take a miraculous effort for the Panthers to lock in and solve Oilers red hot goaltender Stuart Skinner on Monday. The longer series' have gone, the stronger Skinner has gotten throughout these playoffs and that has certainly held true in this matchup. The Oilers offense gets a lot of the press, but Skinner has been right there as a potential MVP candidate in this series. Meanwhile, this might as well be termed as a 'legacy game' for Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. Have the Oilers gotten into his head? Maybe. I like that the Panthers gave him an extra day off from practice to clear his head and expect a much better performance from him on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-24-24 | Marlins v. Royals -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. This game should serve as a 'slump-buster' for the Royals offense as they look to tee off on the Marlins pitching staff on a night where the temperature is expected to approach or eclipse 100 degrees while the wind blows out to left-center. Roddery Munoz will get the start for the Marlins. He hasn't just been bad this season, he's been downright awful, sporting a 7.46 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in six starts. The Royals rank second in baseball in team OPS at home this season, trailing only the Astros in that category. Cole Ragans owns a stellar 2.63 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including one complete game. While he hasn't had his best stuff in recent outings, he's still hung in there to go at least six innings in four straight starts. Note that the Marlins rank last (30th) in the majors in team OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season. While the Marlins were forced to use four relievers in yesterday's game, the Royals deployed only two relief arms for a combined 27 pitches. This will be an 'all hands on deck' situation for the Kansas City 'pen but I project things to be out of hand by that point anyway. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
06-24-24 | Guardians v. Orioles -115 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Cleveland at 6:35 pm et on Monday. While the starting pitching matchup may appear to favor the Guardians heavily in this game, there are other reasons why the Orioles check in as a favorite as they lick their wounds following a three-game sweep at the hands of the Astros. Cleveland is coming off a sweep of the Blue Jays at home but Sunday's come-from-behind victory did come at a cost as it used five relievers including closer Emmanuel Clase for a second straight day. He and impressive rookie Cade Smith figure to be unavailable for this one after working consecutive games. Despite dropping all three games in Houston, Baltimore continues to hit well, ranking fourth in the majors in team OPS over the last seven days. Cleveland sits just behind it in fifth. I like the aggressiveness the O's have shown on the basepaths recently with only one team stealing more bases over the last week. In a similar vein, only one team has recorded more hits than the O's over the same stretch. Weather could be the great equalizer in terms of Monday's pitching matchup. While Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee obviously boasts a stronger resume than O's rookie Cade Povich, it looks like a favorable night for pitchers at Camden Yards with a strong wind blowing in from left-center and the temperatures in the low-80's. Take Baltimore (8*). |
|||||||
06-23-24 | Mets v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 7 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have taken turns beating up on each other in the first two games of this series but I'm anticipating a tighter, lower-scoring affair on Sunday. The forecast is calling for relatively cool temperatures in the high-60's with the wind blowing lightly from left to right. Those are favorable conditions for the pitchers in the month of June in Chicago. Luis Severino will take the ball for New York. He got roughed up in his most recent start but outings like that have been few and far between this season. Prior to that start in Texas Severino had allowed just two earned runs over his previous two starts, covering a span of 14 innings. On the season he owns a 4.18 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. Note that current Cubs hitters are a combined 3-for-27 off of Severino with no extra-base hits. Javier Assad will counter for Chicago. Like Severino, he has had success, albeit in a limited sample size, against tonight's opponent. Current Mets hitters are 5-for-29 off of him with no extra base hits. Assad isn't a candidate to work deep into the ball game but has held three of his last four opponents to two runs or less and owns a solid 3.79 FIP and 1.25 WHIP on the campaign. Both bullpens are in excellent shape thanks to the lopsided nature of the first two games in this series. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-23-24 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 20-36 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Sunday. These two teams just matched up last week in Hamilton and the result was a wild 33-30 Roughriders come-from-behind victory. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around as the scene shifts to Regina for the Riders home opener. Saskatchewan's main focus in this game will undoubtedly be on slowing Ti-Cats quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell who has turned back the clock for two straight incredible performances out of the gate this season. Last week, Mitchell threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns against the Riders. I'm confident we'll see 2-0 Saskatchewan make the necessary adjustments here and ultimately slow Mitchell and the Hamilton offense, which was not thought to be one of the league's better units prior to the start of the season (and still won't be in my opinion). The pointspread does dictate another tightly-contested affair between these two teams and I believe it as Hamilton is desperate to pick up its first victory of the campaign. The Ti-Cats can play some defense, as they showed in the earlier stages of last week's game (before that fourth quarter collapse). Playing from behind for much of their first two games the Riders have had to open things up offensively but I think they prefer to play a more methodical style led by veteran QB Trevor Harris. This total has quite simply been set too high based on last week's result. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-23-24 | Liberty v. Dream UNDER 162 | 96-75 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 3 pm et on Sunday. The last time these two teams met on June 6th the Liberty walked away with a relatively low-scoring 78-61 victory in Manhattan. The scene shifts to Atlanta for Sunday's rematch and I believe we're in for another lower-scoring contest than most are expecting. New York is fresh off a two-game sweep at home against Los Angeles, scoring 93 and 98 points against the Sparks matador-like defense. In fact, the Liberty have scored 90 points or more in five straight games entering Sunday's contest. I do think that streak will be in jeopardy against the Dream, one of the league's best defensive teams. Atlanta allowed 91 points in Friday's lopsided loss against Indiana. We have seen the Dream bounce back from poor defensive showings this season, however. On June 13th they gave up an identical 91 points against the Fever but responded by holding Los Angeles to 74 points in their next game three days later. They've held seven of their last 10 opponents to 80 points or less which is probably a key number in terms of Sunday's total. New York has given up 80 points or more in five straight games and couldn't have been all that pleased with its defensive effort in yesterday's closer-than-expected 10-point win over the Sparks. Remember, the Liberty turned in a stretch earlier this month in which they held four straight opponents to 75 points or less, including that 78-61 win over Atlanta. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-23-24 | Orioles +114 v. Astros | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore over Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. This series hasn't gone the Orioles way but they can salvage something from it with a victory on Sunday afternoon and I like their chances of accomplishing just that. Baltimore continues to produce offensively, ranked fourth in the majors in team OPS over the last seven days and second over the last 15 days. The Astros, despite their success at the plate in this series, still sit 17th in in baseball in team OPS over the last seven days. Facing Framber Valdez should bring smiles to the faces of Orioles hitters as they've gone a combined 20-for-61 off of him with six extra base hits including four home runs (by four different players). Valdez has put together a few good starts recently but certainly hasn't reached the heights that saw him finish fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting two years ago and ninth last season, sporting a 3.86 FIP and 1.21 WHIP in 12 starts so far in 2024. Albert Suarez will start for Baltimore and he'll be seeing all of the current Astros hitters for the first time in his career. He has of course been a terrific story here in 2024, returning to the big leagues for the first time in seven years and finding success in the O's starting rotation. Suarez owns a 3.06 FIP and 1.20 WHIP in 15 outings including eight starts this season. The Orioles bullpen is in terrific shape with all hands on deck so to speak after using only one reliever (Bryan Baker) in yesterday's contest. Meanwhile, the Astros depth-shy relief corps is reaching overworked territory with each of its arms having worked two out of the last three games. Take Baltimore (10*). |
|||||||
06-22-24 | Braves v. Yankees -137 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Yankees as they look to snap out of their funk after getting manhandled by Chris Sale and the Braves in the series-opener last night. New York should be happy to be facing Braves veteran right-hander Charlie Morton on Saturday. Current Yankees hitters are 45-for-145 (.310) off of him with seven home runs (Juan Soto has three in 11 at-bats). Morton has been alternating good and bad starts for much of the season and is coming off a good one last Saturday against the Rays. In two of his last four outings he has failed to last six innings and has given up at least four earned runs. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for New York. Like Morton, he's been alternating good and bad starts and comes off a poor one against the Red Sox last Sunday. The Yankees do seem to like hitting for him, leading them to a 10-5 record with Stroman on the hill this season. Note that he has posted a solid 3.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 12 nighttime starts with the Yanks winning eight of those games. The Yankees bullpen is well-positioned on Saturday after Yoendrys Gomez gave them 78 pitches in relief in last night's blowout defeat. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
06-22-24 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -223 | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We'll lay the wood with the Phillies in this bounce-back spot on Saturday. Not only is it a rebound spot for the team in general, but ace Zack Wheeler gave up eight earned runs in his most recent start (against one of the best offenses in baseball in Baltimore). He'll start on full rest (five days) on Saturday and still owns a 3.48 FIP and 1.01 WHIP on the season and has held current Diamondbacks hitters to a .239 batting average in 134 career at-bats. On a hot day in Philadelphia with the winds blowing straight out, D'Backs struggling starter Tommy Henry figures to be in trouble. He puts a ton of men on base (62-of-163 batters he has faced this season to be precise). The Phillies couldn't take advantage of their many scoring opportunities last night but will today. Also note that Arizona's bullpen is one of the most depth-shy in baseball and used four different relievers last night (two of them have worked each of the last two days and figure to be unavailable on Saturday). We don't love laying an extra run with home teams as the math simply doesn't add up, but we will stick our neck out with the steep price on the Phils here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
06-22-24 | Wings v. Mystics +2.5 | Top | 69-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 3 pm et on Saturday. Washington is a team on the rise right now having gone 4-1 ATS in its last four games with the lone pointspread defeat coming earlier this week in Indiana (in a game the Mystics were competitive in right down to the wire). There's no such glimmer of hope for the Wings right now as they're mired in a nine-game losing streak including seven ATS losses in their last eight contests. Dallas has allowed eight straight and 12 of its last 13 opponents to connect on at least 30 field goals. That should be music to the ears of the Mystics, who have cooled off over the last couple of games, making good on just 28 and 29 field goals. Washington has settled into a nice identity at the defensive end of the floor, where it has held five straight opponents to 67 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of 15 foes to 68 or less. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
06-21-24 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a high-scoring game to open this series last night as the Padres prevailed by a 7-6 score. I'm anticipating runs to come at a premium in Friday's rematch, however. Colin Rea will get the start for Milwaukee. He's been serviceable for the Brewers, particularly of late as he checks in having allowed just four earned runs in 18 1/3 innings of work over his last three starts. Dylan Cease starts for San Diego. He's coming off his worst outing of the season as he was tagged for seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Mets. We'll call for him to bounce back here as he still sports a terrific 3.32 FIP and 1.07 WHIP on the campaign. Current Brewers hitters are a miserable 5-for-48 off of Cease with only two extra base hits and no home runs. Both bullpens got a real workout last night and there will be some arms that are unavailable on Friday. That keeps us from going heavier on this play but I do think the two starters can work deep enough into this ball game to keep the final score low. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-21-24 | Panthers +109 v. Oilers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 59 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Florida over Edmonton at 8:20 pm et on Friday. While it may seem strange to say, I do think some of the pressure shifts back to the Oilers in advance of Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final on Friday. Edmonton was clearly playing with house money in Game 5 on Tuesday. Few expected it to stave off elimination in Game 4 but it did, in resounding fashion. Fewer still thought the Oilers would manage to come away victorious on the road in Game 5. But they did. Now heading back home the Oilers have plenty of believers. As much as the Panthers would like to clinch the Stanley Cup on home ice, a Friday night in Edmonton will have to do. It was easy to take things for granted after building a 3-0 series lead but not so much now. This is the game the Panthers need to have as we all know anything can happen in Game 7. I fully expect Florida to come with that sense of urgency that it seemed to lack in the last two games. Take Florida (10*). |
|||||||
06-21-24 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Diamondbacks series in Washington fizzled offensively with all three games staying 'under' despite favorable hitting conditions in the nation's capital. I expect a different story to unfold this weekend in Philadelphia. Temperatures are forecast to reach into the 90's with the wind blowing out to center throughout Friday's contest. We'll call for a high-scoring affair. The starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired with two of the most disappointing starters in baseball this season on the bump in Jordan Montgomery and Taijuan Walker. A big get for the D'Backs in free agency, Montgomery has logged a 4.48 FIP and 1.63 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Current Phillies hitters are 8-for-28 off of the left-hander. Walker owns a 5.12 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in nine outings this season. Current D'Backs hitters are 26-for-94 off of him. Note that these two offenses rank right up there among the best in baseball over the last seven days with the D'Backs checking in eighth and the Phillies ninth in the majors in team OPS. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-21-24 | Mets v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. This play sets up nicely with both teams coming off off days on Thursday (meaning both bullpens will have all hands on deck). That's not to mention the favorable weather forecast for pitchers with the wind blowing in lightly and relatively cool temperatures expected. Jose Quintana will get the start for the Mets. After a rocky start to the season he's shown signs of turning things around, most recently allowing just one earned run on two hits over six innings against the Padres. Likely a useful trade deadline piece, Quintana will look to continue to improve on his lofty 5.16 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. Current Cubs hitters are just 16-for-60 off of him. Shota Imanaga will counter for Chicago. He was terrific again in his most recent start, yielding only one earned run on four hits over seven innings in a 5-1 win over the Cardinals. Imanaga has posted Cy Young Award caliber numbers in his first big league season, sporting a 2.76 FIP and 0.99 WHIP through 13 starts. Current Mets hitters are just 3-for-17 off of him with no extra base hits. As I mentioned, both bullpens are in good shape following an off day. Expect runs to come at a premium on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-20-24 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 47.5 | Top | 21-47 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. There will be plenty of juice in Montreal on Thursday as the Alouettes make their long-awaited home debut following a Grey Cup championship last November. Already off to a 2-0 start, Montreal will look to keep it rolling against 1-0 Ottawa. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Both teams won in similar fashion last week, leaning heavily on their defense to stave off late comeback attempts. Ottawa scored a touchdown with under two minutes remaining in the first quarter against Winnipeg but didn't reach the end zone again until nearly midway the fourth quarter. It will obviously be facing an uphill battle against one of the league's best defenses in Montreal on Thursday. After allowing a touchdown with 2:21 remaining in the first quarter against Edmonton last week, the Als didn't allow another one until the game was essentially out of reach with less than a minute remaining in the fourth quarter. The 'over' did cash in the most recent matchup between these two teams last October but we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results between these East Division rivals since 2022. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-20-24 | Royals -150 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. The betting markets are obviously a little spooked by the Royals right now as they're laying a considerably lower price than we saw in last night's contest - a game they lost 5-1. Kansas City has now dropped eight of its last 10 games. The last time they won a game - this past Saturday in Los Angeles - Seth Lugo was on the mound. He'll take the ball again on Thursday and I look for a similar result. Winning on the road is nothing new with Lugo on the hill. The Royals are 7-1 in his eight road outings this season. That hasn't been any sort of fluke either as Lugo has posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.89 WHIP away from home. He has given up only three home runs in 54 road innings this season. Mitch Spence will get the call for the A's. The rookie right-hander owns a solid 3.35 FIP and 1.21 WHIP this season. I like the fact that the Royals will be seeing him for a second time after delivering a 6-2 home victory back in May. Spence has allowed 23 hits in his last three starts, covering a span of 18 2/3 innings and has topped out at four strikeouts in a game this season. The A's figure to be without two key bullpen arms for this one after Austin Adams and Mason Miller both worked each of the last two nights. Take Kansas City (8*). |
|||||||
06-20-24 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen three straight high-scoring games in this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday. While the weather conditions are expected to favor the hitters with the temperature approaching 90 degrees and the wind blowing out moderately to right-center, I look for today's starting pitchers to navigate the conditions. Gavin Stone has been terrific for the Dodgers, recording a 3.62 FIP and 1.21 WHIP in 13 starts. His emergence has been welcome with so many injuries in Los Angeles' starting rotation. Current Rockies are just 3-for-15 off of Stone with only one extra base hit (a Charlie Blackmon double). Ty Blach will counter for Colorado. While I'm not about to sing Blach's praises as he is a prototypical back-of-the-rotation starter, I will point out that current Dodgers hitters are just 21-for-96 off of him with only two home runs. Blach has faced the Dodgers nine times over the course of his career with none of those games totalling more than 10 runs and eight of them reaching six runs or less. Each team used only three bullpen arms in last night's contest so despite the wild nature of this series so far, we're not talking about two depleted relief corps'. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-20-24 | Rays v. Twins -123 | 7-6 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rays evened this series at a game apiece with a 3-2 win in extra innings last night. I look for the Twins to bounce back on Thursday afternoon. Zack Littell will take the ball for Tampa Bay. He posted terrific numbers early in the campaign but the sample size was simply too small. He's already approaching his career high in big league innings in a season and we haven't even flipped the calendar over to July yet. Littell's FIP has risen to 3.63 (career 4.25) and WHIP to 1.38 (career 1.30). Current Twins are just 6-for-26 off of him but no player has more than five at-bats, so again a very small sample size at play. Simeon Woods-Richardson will counter for Minnesota. He didn't have his best command in his most recent start but the Twins still won that game 6-5 at home. Minnesota is now 4-0 in Woods-Richardson's four home outings this season where he has allowed only one home run in 20 innings of work. No current Rays hitter has seen the right-hander before. Both bullpens are in similarly poor shape for this one following last night's extra innings affair. Minnesota's 'pen has been better overall this season, however, noting it has successfully closed out 23 games while blowing only eight compared to Tampa Bay's 22:14 save ratio. Take Minnesota (8*). |