Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-11-21 | Panthers v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We think Florida is a pretty good team. Not as good as either Tampa Bay or Carolina, but the Panthers are better than the rest of the Central Division. That includes Columbus, whom they just defeated on Tuesday by a score of 4-2. That was the Blue Jackets’ second straight loss as well as their seventh loss in the last nine games. Only three times in those nine games have they scored more than two goals. They’d gone Under six in a row before running into the Panthers 48 hours ago. Florida may be averaging almost 4.0 goals per game on the road. However, that average will be extremely difficult to maintain as the season wears on. We don’t think they’ll match that number here tonight and that basically means an Under is automatic as the Blue Jackets aren’t likely to score more than two of their own. The Under is 10-5 for Columbus this season when they are playing in a revenge spot. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 237 | Top | 112-127 | Win | 101 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Certainly, you have to be aware of the fact that the Wizards don’t play much defense. Their 119.1 points/game allowed is the most this season in the Eastern Conference. League-wide, only Sacramento gives up more and there’s only one other team within three points of those two. So the Wizards should definitely be accommodating when it comes to this big Over play. As for Memphis, they put up 122 or more in three of their last five games. They’ll take advantage of that poor Washington defense. The Grizzlies have played in two games this year in which they had three or more days rest. Those two games averaged 245.5 points/game. The Over is 4-0 the last four times they’ve played with three or more days rest. These teams played on March 2nd and it was 125-111 Grizzlies, a final score that came just shy of the total. But we think the team will score a few more tonight. Bradley Beal leads the NBA in scoring at 32.9 points/game. He scored just 23 in the loss to Memphis last week, so expect him to perhaps be the sole difference tonight’s game goes Over the total. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Indiana State v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 122.5 | Top | 49-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is now down to its semifinals and this event was not without headlines as yesterday Drake got to advance without even playing (its quarter final opponent N Iowa had a positive COVID test). In today’s first semi, top seeded Loyola (ranked #20) will face Indiana State. The Ramblers had no problems in yesterday’s 73-49 beatdown over Southern Illinois. That made it 16 straight games where Loyola has held its opposition below 60 points. The last time they failed to do so was all the way back on January 10th and ironically that was against the team they’ll face here in the semis, Indiana State. The Sycamores won that game 76-71, the first of two times the teams played. (Loyola did win the second 58-48.) The Ramblers average more than 70 points/game, so they can take care of the majority of the scoring today. We do see Indiana State getting to 60, which is probably the key here to the game going Over. This total is REALLY low as ISU’s game vs. Evansville featured fewer than 100 total points. But it’s a new day and the Sycamores are 10-4 Over following a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 points. Loyola has gone Over in five straight neutral site games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Texas v. Oklahoma UNDER 143 | Top | 69-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This entire three-game package has almost exclusively featured Big 12 teams and we’ve got two in the top 20 here. Oklahoma, who at one point this season defeated three straight top 10 teams, is limping into the regular season finale. The Sooners have dropped three in a row including two straight to rival Oklahoma State. It was 79-75 in Stillwater Monday as they let the Cowboys shoot 52.9% from the field. Both losses to the Pokes were by four points. Now they face a Texas team that’s off a 14-point win over Iowa State on Tuesday. The Longhorns also beat Kansas last week, which we know is impressive. The first time these teams played, the game went way Over the total (OU won 80-79 in Austin). We look for the rematch to feature a lot less scoring though. Both teams allow a pretty low field goal percentage for the year. Texas was held to 59 points by Texas Tech last Saturday. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Blue Jackets v. Stars OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Stars season has been impacted more than most by postponements. They’ve had eight (postponements) total including the first four games. Right now they are struggling mightily. They have just one victory in the last 10 games and are coming off two straight shutout losses to Tampa Bay. However, we do see them getting on the board tonight against Columbus. The Blue Jackets have given up 78 goals in just 24 games. Only a handful of teams have allowed more and they’ve all played more games. Since Dallas has played the fewest games in the league, their numbers are skewed. But they are averaging 3.4 goals scored per game at home. So they should get more than one tonight. We’re probably looking at least 2-3. Columbus should score multiple goals tonight as well. They just put four in the back of the net Tuesday vs. Detroit. Blue Jackets goalie Korpisalo has a poor .897 save percentage in five career starts against the Stars. Dallas goalie Khudobin allowed four goals on just 25 shots when he faced Columbus earlier this month. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
03-01-21 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -127 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER St. Louis has given up a lot of goals so far, 67 to be exact, which is more than you’d expect from a team with their record. They’ve also scored 67. They are coming off a win in San Jose Saturday where the final score was 7-6. But you may be shocked to learn that the Blues’ O/U record this year is only 12-9. When their games go Over, like Saturday, they often go way Over. But four of the last six games have seen five or less total goals scored. Tonight they face an Anaheim team that hasn’t won in nearly three wins. When the Ducks did last win, it was a 1-0 final. They’ve collected only 12 goals in the six games since and have the fewest number scored in the league (42) for the season. The Under is 7-3 in Ducks home games when the total is 5.5. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-28-21 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Expect plenty of goals to be scored in this game. Detroit has put five on the board each of its last two, including a 5-3 win right here in Chicago last night. The Blackhawks will look to respond with their sixth game of 3+ goals in their last eight. Chicago has had three games with five or more goals this month. Three of their last four games have seen eight or more total goals scored. Three of the Red Wings previous five games have seen at least seven total goals scored. Their power play, which finally scored a goal last night, was long overdue to break through and should continue to improve if they are allotted some more opportunities tonight. There were 68 combined shots in last night’s game, 36 from Chicago and 32 from Detroit. We have every reason to believe this will be another “wide open” game. The Over is 4-0 this season when the Blackhawks are off a loss by two or more goals. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Penguins v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER These are two teams we haven’t talked about much. The Penguins have 21 points, tied for fourth in the East Division. The Islanders are two points ahead of them (23) and in third. Both have won five of their last seven games. But the Islanders have won their last two while Pittsburgh is off a loss. In that loss, the Pens gave up five goals (to Washington). The Isles are off a game where they scored seven times. So the probability that this will turn into a pretty high-scoring game seems pretty high. The Islanders average 3.7 goals per game at home. With Pittsburgh, their power play has been a disappointment, but it’s just a matter of time before they get that turned around. The Islanders penalty killing unit hasn’t been that great this year. The Over is 11-1 when the Penguins are off a loss by three or more goals. Tied to that is they are also 5-0 Over after allowing 5+ goals in the last game. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Wolves v. Wizards OVER 235.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Neither of these teams are particularly good with the Timberwolves being especially bad of late. It’s six straight losses for them and in each of the last two, they’ve given up 130+ points. While that’s a little misleading because their last game went to overtime, it was still 119 points allowed in regulation. There was no OT when they gave up 130 to the Wizards last month in a 21-point loss. That was the fifth straight meeting where Minnesota and Washington combined to go Over the total. The Wiz’s last game, a 112-110 win against Denver Thursday night, did stay Under. But that was only after they gave up 124 and 135 in the previous two games. Washington is allowing the second highest number of points per game in the league this season and when they’re at home, the number jumps to 122.2. Minnesota allows 119.4 PPG on the road. All five T Wolves' games this season with a total of at least 230 have gone Over. The Over is 10-3 in Wizards’ home games when the total is 230 or higher. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-26-21 | Suns v. Bulls OVER 227 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Suns have had a tremendous February and won 12 of their last 15 games overall. But they lost Wednesday 124-121 to Charlotte. While that put an end to a three-game win streak, another streak did continue and that’s an Over run which has now reached five in a row. Over the previous five games, Phoenix has averaged 127.4 points while shooting 53.3%. Tonight they invade Chicago to face a Bulls team whose games are also - generally - high scoring. The Bulls are off a 133-126 overtime win against Minnesota. While five additional minutes make the number of total points scored there a little misleading, this is a team whose games are averaging over 230 total points for the season. In four of the last six games, including each of the last three, Chicago has scored 120 or more. Tonight is an attempt by the Bulls to win four straight for the first time all season. They are 7-2 Over their last nine games as a home underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-24-21 | Alabama v. Arkansas UNDER 156.5 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER With both Missouri and Tennessee faltering in recent weeks, might we be looking at the SEC’s two premier teams here? Alabama certainly is in that discussion as they lead the conference with a 13-1 SU record (18-5 overall). The Crimson Tide are deservedly ranked #6 in the country right now, although two of their last three wins have come by four points or less. Now they head to Arkansas, who has won its last seven SEC games and has revenge on the mind Wednesday night. When these teams played in Tuscaloosa last month, the Tide ripped the Razorbacks 90-59. It was over in the first half as Bama took a 42-19 lead into the break. Things are obviously going to be a lot more competitive tonight in Fayetteville. Arkansas is also well rested as they haven’t played in over a week. The expectation is that these teams are going to put up a lot of points, however the Razorbacks are giving up only 63.1 points/game at home. That’ll not only make this one more competitive than last night, but also lower scoring. The fact that Alabama is #2 in defensive efficiency can’t be discounted either. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-24-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It should be a good one tonight as the two best teams in the East Division face off. To be clear, we know Tampa Bay is currently in 4th place. But the Lightning are also the defending Stanley Cup Champs and have the division’s best goal differential. This should also turn out to be a high-scoring affair. With 64 goals scored on the season, Carolina is the highest scoring team in the entire Eastern Conference. Tampa Bay isn’t far behind with 58 goals scored in just 16 games. The teams just played twice in Raleigh and split with the Hurricanes winning 4-0 and the Lightning winning 4-2. We definitely see the winning team tonight scoring at least four goals. After all, the winning side in Tampa’s last seven games has scored at least four times. The same holds true for Carolina’s last seven games. The difference compared to the last two games will be that we see both teams scoring at least three times this evening. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-23-21 | Wolves v. Bucks UNDER 232 | Top | 112-139 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Thanks to a couple home games against lesser competition, the Bucks have seemingly turned things around. A five-game slide, which included back to back home losses to Toronto, was certainly a little shocking for a team accustomed to winning. That losing streak is now over though as the Bucks have beaten Oklahoma City 98-85 and Sacramento 128-115 over the course of the last four days. Now they host Minnesota, so it should be another easy win. We like the game to stay Under as the Timberwolves are off two straight abysmal efforts at the offensive end. They managed only 99 points against the Knicks on Sunday and 81 against Toronto on Friday. But Milwaukee can’t poke too much fun at Minnesota. Before the win against Sacramento, who is arguably the worst defensive team in the entire NBA, they too failed to score 100 points in back to back games. This total may not seem all that high for Milwaukee, but their home games are averaging only 227.8 points/game this year. Minnesota is 10-3 Under when it plays a team from the East. Tonight is the first game on the bench for new coach Chris Finch and there figures to be an adjustment period. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-22-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 227 | Top | 100-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Portland’s loss to Washington Saturday night aside, these are two hot teams in the Western Conference. Before that loss, the Blazers hadn’t just won six straight games, they’d also covered six straight games. The Suns are even hotter with an 8-1 straight up and against the spread run in their last nine games. The only loss came by four points to Brooklyn and that’s a game where they had a 24-point lead at one juncture. Five of the last six games have seen Phoenix score at least 120 points. They should score at least that many tonight. Portland is a bad team defensively. They allow the third most points per possession in the league. Three of the Blazers last four opponents have gone for at least 118, the exception being OKC, who isn’t a high-scoring team. The good news for Portland is that they average 117.7 points/game on the road. They had a 43-point quarter against the Wizards Sunday. Phoenix hit 24 three pointers in its last game. The Over is 7-0 the last seven times Portland has been an underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-21-21 | Jets v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It was 2-0 win for Winnipeg Friday night in the front end of this back to back. We anticipate this game to be fairly low-scoring as well. The Jets have scored two goals or less in four of their last six games. Meanwhile, Vancouver continues to struggle against Winnipeg, losing 15 of the last 17 head to head while averaging fewer than 1.5 goals per game. They now lost their last six home games versus the Jets. In four of the last seven games, the Canucks have scored 1 or 0 goals. They are 3-1 Under after doing so. The Jets are 5-2 Under when the total is 6.0 or higher. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 213 | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This is the first time these teams have seen one another since October when they met in the NBA Finals. The way things are going this year, this could be the last time they meet for a while. The Heat are really struggling, 12-17 and just barely hanging on to what would be one of the “play-in” spots in the Eastern Conference. Truthfully, the Lakers have been a bit underwhelming as they are not leading the Western Conference. But they are definitely one of the league’s best teams and are only two games back of the Jazz. Being that LeBron is off a loss here, figure the Lakers will be “locked in” tonight. Though they fell to Brooklyn Thursday, they held the Nets to just 109 points, an achievement in its own right. Now the Nets didn’t have Durant/Irving, but that hasn’t stopped them from putting up a lot of points before. That Los Angeles only scored 98 themselves in that game is a bit concerning though. Only the Knicks are allowing less points/game and the Lakers are 1st in defensive efficiency. Miami isn’t a good offensive team. The Under was 4-2 in the NBA Finals last year. The Lakers still don’t have Anthony Davis. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-19-21 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 226 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Hawks have gone Over the total in six consecutive games, the most recent being a 122-114 win here in Boston Wednesday night. They look to make it two straight in Beantown tonight and we look for them to make it seven straight Overs. This team has put up a minimum of 112 points in its last six games while at the same time allowing no fewer than 114 in every game. They ripped the Celtics the other night, shooting 57.1% overall. Trae Young had 40 points on 14 of 20 shooting. Boston’s defense, particularly in transition, has not been good the last week or so. But we think their shooting (43.9% L10 games) is set to improve. Specifically look for Jayson Tatum to have a good game tonight. The team’s second leading scorer at 24.6 points/game, Tatum has made only 39.2% the L10 games. But he still scored 35 points on Wednesday. The Over is 12-4 in the Celtics previous 16 games off an ATS loss. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-19-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Chicago and Carolina are separated by just a point in the Central Division as both teams have generally been successful of late. Carolina did lose here at home to Florida on Wednesday, but had won three straight prior and is 8-2-1 its last 11. Chicago has won three straight and six of seven. Four of those wins have come in overtime. But it’s generally been a “different path” for the two teams’ respective success. Hurricanes games have been high scoring as eight of the last night have gone Over. Every Over has seen at least seven total goals scored. But the Blackhawks are on Under runs of 5-1 L6 and 3-0 L3 with all those Unders seeing no more than five total goals scored. So something will have to give tonight in Raleigh. Our view is that this is going to be a lower-scoring game. The ‘Canes allow just 2.2 goals/game at home while the ‘Hawks average just 2.1 per game on the road. Carolina is 14-8 Under when off three or more consecutive Overs. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-16-21 | Wild v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This will be Minnesota’s first game in two weeks. Not traveling with the rest of the team to LA will be forwards Nick Bonino, Victor Rask and Nico Sturm, defensemen Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Carson Soucy, and goalie Cam Talbot. That’s obviously a pretty sizable group. While it may seem difficult to know what to expect from the Wild here, what we do know is they could only score one goal in three of their previous five games. These teams were supposed to meet Saturday, but the Wild still weren’t cleared. So that’s why it’s just the one game that they play and the reason the Kings have been off for four days. Each of the Kings last four games have seen seven or more total goals scored. They had six themselves the last time they played, which was against the Sharks. But after a “mini-break,” we don’t see them coming out as sharp. The only other time the Kings played with three or more days rest this season, the Under was a winner. Lengthy absences from the ice = low scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-15-21 | 76ers v. Jazz OVER 226 | Top | 123-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The best teams from each conference meet Monday in Salt Lake City. The Jazz have made a strong case to be considered the league’s best team this year as they have won 18 of their last 19 games to get to 22-5 on the year. The Sixers are 18-9 and have actually lost two in a row, both on the road to Western Conference teams (Portland, Phoenix). It’s going to be a tall task to finish this four-game road trip with a .500 record. But we do expect there to be lots of points from both sides tonight. Four players scored 25 or more points for the Jazz in Friday night’s very impressive win against Milwaukee. In this 7-0 start to February, there has been only one game where Utah failed to score at least 112. The Sixers are 9-3 Over the L12 games. The Over is 4-0 in the Jazz’s last four Monday games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-15-21 | Virginia v. Florida State UNDER 129 | Top | 60-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is 10* on UNDER Florida State returned from a two-week break (COVID) to defeat Wake Forest 92-85 in overtime Saturday. That final margin of victory wasn’t nearly enough to cover the 13-point spread, but the Seminoles will take the win considering they trailed by two with five seconds left in regulation. They’d let a double digit lead slip away and nearly lost at home for the first time in over two years. Now it’s a Top 25 showdown with #9 Virginia, a team that has lost only one time in 2021. The last eight FSU games have all gone Over, but considering Virginia just held North Carolina to 48 points on Saturday, this one has a good chance of going “the other way.” Plus, the Under has hit 11 straight times when Virginia has visited Tallahassee! As always, Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are allowing just 58.8 points/game. They are 5-1 Under in road games. The 48-hour turnaround for both teams will probably result in below average shooting and FSU could again be without Balsa Koprivica. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-14-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We know that St. Louis is in first place, but these are the two best teams in the NHL’s West Division. Colorado and Vegas are set to play four straight games against one another, the first two taking place here in Sin City where the Golden Knights are always tough to beat. Vegas was shutout in its last home game, 1-0 by Anaheim, but won 3-1 last night in San Jose. Before that loss to the Ducks, they’d won their three previous home games and scored a total of 18 goals (4.5 per) in the previous four. This is a team that’s scored at least four goals in seven of their 12 games this season. Colorado has averaged 4.0 goals per game over their last five, winning four of those. Tonight is their first game in 12 days though and we wonder if they’ll be a bit “leaky” in the defensive end. Both teams are top 10 in scoring. Nathan MacKinnon will be back for the Avs, who did get three practices under their belt while being under COVID protocols. Vegas scored three times on the power play yesterday. The Over is 7-1 the last eight times Vegas has been a home underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Hurricanes v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It was 5-3 Carolina when these clubs met Thursday. That was Dallas’ fourth straight loss as a 4-0 start is now a distant memory. We expect Saturday’s rematch to see less goals scored. You’ve got to think Stars goalie Khudobin will start to play better. He’s 0-3-1 his last four starts, all three losses coming vs. Carolina, and his save percentage is just .866. Hurricanes goalie James Reimer is 6-1 vs. Dallas and made 34 saves Thursday. The Under is 37-15-2 in Dallas games if they allowed five or more goals their previous time out. We’re due to see a downtick in scoring tonight. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Iowa v. Michigan State OVER 152 | Top | 88-58 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Iowa doesn’t have a problem scoring on anybody as they are third in the country with an 87.4 points/game scoring average. They’ve actually failed to hit that average in six straight games, which partly explains why they’re just 2-4 in that stretch. But the Hawkeyes did down Rutgers 79-66 earlier this week and now look to take care of a Michigan State team that is simply not among the elite in the Big 10 anymore, let alone among the elite in the country. The Spartans are a money-burning 4-13 ATS, although they have won two straight games for only the second time in two months. Those wins were against Penn State and Nebraska though, probably the conference’s two worst teams (Nebraska is definitely the worst). They won those games in part because the opponents were terrible shooting from three-point range, but that will almost assuredly not be the case today as Iowa is making 39 percent of its three-point shots. But the Hawkeyes have an issue in that they allow more than 80 points/game on the road. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-12-21 | Blues v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Welcome to the 2020-21 NHL season where we’ve got an incredible bit of scheduling brewing here in the desert. St. Louis and Arizona just met four times in the Gateway City with the Coyotes winning the last three. Now they’re set to play three more times here in Phoenix. That is seven consecutive games against the same opponent and the Stanley Cup Playoffs are still a couple months away! Three of the four games in St. Louis ended up being 4-3 finals with the last one going to a shootout. But with so much familiarity between the two clubs, we’ve got to expect less goals after a three-day break. The Blues are just 1 for their last 12 on the power play. The Under is 5-2 the past seven times they’ve been a road favorite. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-12-21 | Middle Tennessee v. Marshall OVER 143 | Top | 79-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER A couple games versus a pretty bad Charlotte team is what Middle Tennessee needed last weekend. The Blue Raiders had lost six in a row before that and five of the losses were by more than 10 points. But they defeated the 49ers 66-65 and 73-60, providing a brief glimmer of positivity in what has been a pretty awful season. At 10-5 on the year, Marshall is doing a lot better than MTSU, though they had some unscheduled breaks in January. They did play last weekend though and could only muster a split with Old Dominion despite being favored to win both games. The loss was by one point and the win was by 20. They should win big tonight. The game should also end up being high scoring. The Thundering Herd have scored more than 80 points in three consecutive games. They are basically averaging 80 per game for the entire season. Middle Tennessee does not score very much, but if they can reach 60 (doable!), then the Over is all but assured in this one. The Over is 4-0 the last four times MTSU has been off an ATS win. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-11-21 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Kings have dropped five straight. In those five losses, they have surrendered a total of 21 goals. They’ve allowed at least three in all five games and four in four of them. The last one was a 4-3 loss to San Jose, who they face again tonight. It should also be noted here that four of the Sharks’ last six games have seen seven or more total goals scored. Five of the last seven Kings’ games have seen at least seven total goals scored. San Jose is allowing 3.6 goals per game this year and LA is allowing 3.5. Those are among the highest averages in the league. You get where we’re going with this one? The Over is 15-5-1 in the Sharks last 21 games as a road favorite. Play on OVER. AAA |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 95-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The struggling Cavaliers head to Denver Wednesday night in search of what would be their second win this month. It’s unlikely to come here as the Nuggets are heavily favored and on a three-game losing skid of their own. Two of those three losses were to the Lakers and Bucks. Then again, Cleveland has faced Milwaukee twice as well as the Clippers and Suns in their last four games. What we do see taking place tonight is a relatively low-scoring affair. The Cavs are dead last in the NBA in points per possession. The Nuggets join them in the bottom five in terms of pace of play. The Cavs have seen 8 of their 11 road games stay Under the total as they’ve shot only 43.5% in them. Denver goes Over a lot more than it goes Under, but this is a high total for Cleveland, whose last three games with a total of 220 or higher have all stayed Under. The Cavs have averaged just 104 points during their four game losing streak, but we like the move to “go big” (now starting two centers) from a defensive perspective. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-09-21 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 140 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER These teams played two weeks ago with West Virginia winning 88-87 as a 2.5-point favorite. While it was a back and forth game, the O/U was never in doubt as the total for the game was 144.5 and the teams went way Over that. The total is even LOWER for tonight’s second meeting, which may be a surprise to some, but this is a matchup we had circled to play the Under all along. The number of total points scored in Morgantown should be viewed as an aberration. The teams went 21 of 41 on three-point attempts, which is way more production than the 13 of 39 average that they combine for on a per game basis this season. The likely significant decrease in 3-point marksmanship tonight should alone account for this game staying Under. But if you need more convincing, note that Texas Tech allows only 56.5 PPG at home. Five of their last seven games have been on the road, which is why we’ve been seeing some higher scoring games from them recently. But in the last home game, they held Oklahoma to only 52 points and that game had just 109 total points scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-09-21 | Warriors v. Spurs OVER 231.5 | Top | 114-91 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Second of two straight games between the Warriors and Spurs. San Antonio won last night 105-100, which was a far cry from what we saw the very first time these teams played (back on January 20th). Then it was Golden State 121-99. Of course, last night’s game was in San Antonio. But what we were most taken aback by is the fact the Warriors scored just 100 points. They were coming off two straight games vs. Dallas where they scored 147 and 132. Things started out well enough, with a 36-point first quarter. But Golden State scored just 41 in the entire second half and Steph Curry was curiously absent for much of the 4th quarter when the Spurs made their run. Steve Kerr has said he’s not going to “stretch” Curry’s minutes to “chase wins,” which seems like an odd thing to say, but our assumption is that Curry will play his usual 34-35 minutes tonight. He had 32 points last night. Look for his teammates to shoot better than the 28 of 69 (40.5%) we saw from them Monday. Problem is Golden State also gives up 121.5 points/game on the road, so they’re number of points allowed is also expected to increase tonight. The Spurs are also 21-9-1 Over when playing the second night of a back to back. They shot only 40% last night. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-08-21 | Thunder v. Lakers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The last time the Thunder and Lakers played, the game went pretty much how you’d imagine. LA dominated en route to a 128-99 win. That was only a little more than three weeks ago, so you’d anticipate tonight should go pretty smoothly for the Lakers, who are in fact favored by double digits. But we think the game has a better chance of being “low scoring” rather than another Lakers’ double digit victory. The most recent Lakers game has a very misleading final score. It was 135-129 because of double overtime. They allowed only 106 points in regulation, making it nine straight games they’ve allowed 108 or less (excluding OT). Four of those games, they’ve allowed fewer than 100. They are the best defensive team in the league right now. The Under is 17-7 in all Lakers games this season and 6-0 off their last six ATS losses. Oklahoma City just set a franchise record with 83 first half points against Minnesota on Saturday, but was then held to only 37 in the second half. That first half performance is indicative of nothing as the Thunder average only 107.5 points/game. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Beneil Dariush v. Diego Ferreira OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 99 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is a rematch from 2014 when Dariush was able to record a unanimous decision victory over Ferreira. Ferreira lost his next fight, a 1st round knockout at the hands of Dustin Poirier (doesn’t seem so bad now, does it?), but has gone undefeated since and is on a six-fight win streak coming into this rematch. He’s now 17-2 in his career. Dariush is 19-4-1 and on a five-fight win streak. He won by spinning backfist last August against Scott Holtzman and it didn’t even take him a full round to do so. Dariush’s last four wins have all come in the first or second round. Ferreira, on the other hand, has had three of his six straight wins go to decision. We see this one going along the lines of the first fight, i.e. leaving it in the hands of the judges. Dariush would prefer to keep this fight standing and he possesses the necessary takedown defense to keep it that way. He’s also a bit stronger now compared to six years ago, so he won’t get overwhelmed in the grappling department. Play on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS AAA |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Pistons v. Suns UNDER 215.5 | Top | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Pistons are bad. They are 5-16 overall and 1-9 on the road. Those records are tied with Minnesota for worst in the NBA. This road trip has predictably started poorly as they’ve lost to Golden State and Utah. Neither game was close. Then came a positive COVID test, cancelling a game vs. Denver. After this game, they’ve got the Lakers and Nets on the schedule so it’s about to get ugly. Phoenix did not play well against New Orleans on Wednesday, but had won three in a row before that. They should be just fine as they’re about to play seven straight at home against Eastern Conference teams. The Pistons are 7-1 Under in non-conference games this year. They beat the Suns last month by a score of 110-105, coming back from an eight-point halftime deficit. Phoenix is 6-2 Under with revenge. Before getting blitzed by the Pelicans, Phoenix had allowed 108 or less in four consecutive games. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is obviously a really big mismatch on the Friday slate. Detroit is the team most would consider to be the worst in the league. They have just six points and have lost seven in a row. Tampa Bay is the team most would consider to be the best in the league. They have 13 points and have been beaten only one time in regulation. The Lightning have already proven their superiority in this matchup with a 5-1 win Wednesday. It was the third straight win for them and they’ve scored four or more times in all three games. You’ve got to like the Over here as TB is 3-0 Over at home when the total is 5.5. You’ve got to figure they’ll score at least four goals tonight. They average 4.8 per game at home. Can the Red Wings get to 2? Certainly. The Over is 3-0 for them if they scored one goal or less in their last game. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
02-04-21 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 220 | Top | 93-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It’s a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals tonight on TNT. You probably remember the Lakers won that series, 4 games to 1, last September. The Nuggets were pretty competitive though, never dropping a game by more than 12 points and two of the losses were by six points or less. The stakes obviously aren’t as high tonight, though both teams are looking to make their way to the top of the Western Conference. The Lakers are one-half game behind the Jazz and Clippers for what looks to be shaping up as a tight three-game race. Denver, 3.5 games back of the leaders, just beat Utah on Sunday. They were supposed to face Detroit on Monday, but that was postponed right before tipoff. The Lakers have been really strong defensively this year. Six of the last seven games have gone Under and they just kept Atlanta under 100 points on Monday. Los Angeles is #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Under is 6-0 when they face a team with a winning record this season. Denver has been an Over team, but has the potential to come out rusty tonight. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-02-21 | Baylor v. Texas UNDER 144.5 | Top | 83-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER #2 Baylor puts its unbeaten 16-0 record on the line tonight, in what should be its toughest test to date, against #6 Texas. The Longhorns were supposed to face Kentucky in the Big 12-SEC Challenge last weekend. But that game was cancelled. Baylor didn’t have much problem with its SEC opponent, beating what had been a red hot Auburn team, 84-72. The Bears’ average margin of victory for the season is nearly 25 points/game and only one time (an 8-point win over Kansas on 1/18) have they failed to win by double digits. They are top three in the country at both ends of the floor. They’ve gone Over in four straight games, but had gone Under in four straight previous to that. Texas has gone Over in six of its last seven. But we anticipate a lower-scoring affair Tuesday night. This is a pretty high total for both teams. For Texas, if the current number holds, it will be the highest total for any game in 2020-21. The Under has hit the last two times these sides have met. Those games saw just 97 and 101 points scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
02-01-21 | Oklahoma v. Texas Tech OVER 137.5 | Top | 52-57 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Oklahoma has ripped off three consecutive wins against Top 10 opponents, beating Kansas, Texas and Alabama. What a run that is! Saturday’s win in Tuscaloosa may have been the most impressive of the bunch considering how hot the Crimson Tide were and the Sooners were without their leading scorer. Another starter (Alondes Williams) was also out. Whether or not Williams and/or Austin Reeves (the leading scorer) will play tonight has yet to be determined. But we still like this game vs. Texas Tech to go Over the total. The Red Raiders are also off an impressive win in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, theirs coming at LSU where they scored the game’s final 12 points to make it a 76-71 final score. Texas Tech will be the 4th straight Top 10 team that OU has faced, a murderous stretch for anybody. You’ve got to question how solid the Sooners will be defensively. They give up 79 points/game away from home. Seven of Texas Tech’s last eight games have gone Over and their defense, which is usually very good, has been shaky of late as well. They’ve allowed 88 and 71 points the last two outings. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-31-21 | 76ers v. Pacers UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Philadelphia has been playing well lately. You can’t really say the same for Indiana, who is 3-4 straight up and 2-5 against the spread its last seven games. The Sixers have won five of six, the lone loss being a shocking upset against Detroit. They beat the Lakers earlier this week and then there was no letdown when they went to Minnesota and crushed the Timberwolves 118-94. Philly is #1 in the East with a 14-6 record and is a top five defensive team, at least in terms of efficiency. Only once in the last eight games have they allowed more than 110 points. The Under is 6-3 in their road games due in large part to them only giving up an average of 106.9 points. Six of the last eight times these teams have hooked up in Indianapolis, the Under has cashed. That includes four straight Indiana only scored 105 in their last game, but on the bright side has kept three of its last four opponents under 110. This should be a fairly “low-scoring” affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-31-21 | Devils v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Devils and Sabres played last night and it was the latter emerging victorious, 4-3, following a shootout. Both these teams are “middle of the pack” in the NHL’s Eastern Division with the difference being only the two points Buffalo earned Saturday. The Sabres have also played one more game than the Devils, who have not looked good of late. They arrived in upstate New York having just dropped two in a row at home to the Flyers. While they’ve given up a total of 12 goals the last three contests, it has been scoring goals that’s the concern for New Jersey. There have been only three games this season, including yesterday, where they’ve scored more than twice. They’ve yet to score three goals in consecutive games. Buffalo has had four of its last five games go past regulation, three of them making it to a shootout, so beware reading “too much into” some of these high-scoring games they’ve been involved in. The Under is 31-15-6 L52 meetings between these two clubs. It is also 5-0 the last five times Buffalo has been off a win. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-30-21 | Gonzaga v. Pepperdine OVER 162.5 | Top | 97-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Gonzaga keeps rolling as Thursday’s 90-62 victory over San Diego makes it 16 wins without a loss for the #1 ranked team in the country. There are only three unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. Them, #2 Baylor and a Drake team whose season was interrupted by COVID. Believe it or not, tonight marks the first time all year the Zags have had to play a second straight game on the road. We certainly don’t have to worry about them scoring though. They lead the country with 94.1 points per game. But the fact they allow 76.4 on the road is notable and leads us to believe this game vs. Pepperdine is going Over. Pepperdine just beat BYU, by the way. That was here in Malibu. In the two home games before that, both of which the Waves won, they scored 80+ points. So you can see why the total has been set high tonight. But in our estimation it is not high enough. Both teams are 6-1 Under their last seven games, which includes a meeting in Spokane that Gonzaga won 95-70. But the total is lower this time. If the teams were to equal the total number of points scored in the first meeting, it would be an Over. We think more points will be scored. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-29-21 | Iowa v. Illinois OVER 162.5 | Top | 75-80 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Watch this game get high-scoring in a hurry. Iowa averages 90.7 points per game. That’s second most in the country (Gonzaga is #1). So it sure was shocking to see the Hawkeyes score a season-low 69 in their last game. That loss to Indiana snapped a five-game win streak. They’d also covered the number in all five of those wins. Safe to say you can look for a bounce back game at the offensive end tonight. They are still #1 in the country in offensive efficiency. After making only 21.3 percent of their three-pointers vs. Indiana, you’ve got to expect more prolific shooting tonight. But we are concerned about their defensive play. The Hawkeyes are giving up 83.2 points per game when they are not the home team this season. Illinois averages 82.9 points per game. The Over is 10-5 in Iowa games. Illinois shoots better than 50% from the field - for the season. The Over is 7-2 in the Illini’s last nine home games against teams that have winning road records. Neither side will have an issue scoring here. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-27-21 | BYU v. Pepperdine UNDER 147 | Top | 73-76 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER BYU has played well of late. The Cougars have won four in a row and eight of their last nine. The lone loss was to Gonzaga. This afternoon they travel to face a Pepperdine team they just beat on Saturday by a score of 65-54. That was the Waves’ fourth loss in their last six games. You’ll note the low-scoring nature of the previous contest as BYU only shot 37.5% that game, but they might as well have “made them all” compared to Pepperdine’s paltry 28.8 FG%. For BYU, it was the second lowest field goal percentage for a game this season. It was Pepperdine’s lowest. Maybe the two teams combined to score more this afternoon, but it still won’t be enough to send this rematch Over the total. The Under is 5-0 in BYU road games as they go from averaging 77.8 points/game at home to 61.3 away from home. The key issue is that they shoot only 28.8% from three-point range on the road. Pepperdine is holding visiting teams to 27.9% from behind the arc this season while at the same time being a poor three-point shooting team. Five of the Waves’ last six games have stayed Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-25-21 | Heat v. Nets UNDER 236 | Top | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Brooklyn has gone Over the total in 12 straight games! That is quite the streak and it’s not as if the totals for their games have been low. The average O/U line for Nets games this season is approaching 230.0! They just beat Miami 128-124 on Saturday for their first win since the James Harden trade. As high scoring as things have been here, we look for tonight’s rematch with the Heat to go Under. Miami is really short-handed right now. Friday night saw them able to only score 81 points in a loss to Toronto. So they are definitely capable of keeping this one Under “by themselves.” Bam Adebayo scored 41 by himself on Saturday, but considering that was a career-high, don’t go expecting him to match that performance this evening. There could be as many as five regular rotation players for the Heat out tonight. This is obviously a really high number, but even if the Nets were to score 120, the Heat won’t score enough to allow it to go Over. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The big question this week is whether or not Patrick Mahomes is going to play. He left the Divisional Round win over Cleveland with a concussion. Mahomes was practicing again Friday after taking almost all the snaps in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. So it sure does look like he’s going to be the man under center for the Chiefs Sunday as they face the Buffalo Bills in a rematch from Week 6 of the regular season. Kansas City won in Buffalo, 26-17, in what was a hastily rescheduled game played on a Monday night. Since that time, the Bills have been beaten just once in 12 games and that came on the “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. With or without Mahomes in there (we expect him to play), expect this game to be higher scoring than the one from the regular season. The Bills are averaging 30.3 points/game this year while the Chiefs are at 29.1. Last week was not indicative of what we’re used to seeing from either offense. KC ran for a season-best 245 yards against Buffalo the first time. Meanwhile, Buffalo is as pass happy as it gets.The Chiefs defense is the worst in the league in the red zone, so expect the Bills to score touchdowns, not field goals, when they get there. The Over is 12-5-1 in Bills games this season, one of the higher percentages in the league. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-23-21 | Auburn v. South Carolina UNDER 155.5 | Top | 109-86 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Auburn comes into this game having covered four straight, but they’ve won straight up just twice in the last seven tries. It was a disappointing 75-73 loss at Arkansas earlier in the week and now they head to South Carolina to face a Gamecocks team who is in no better shape. South Carolina has been battling COVID issues all season as coach Frank Martin is just now returning from his second absence. The Gamecocks seemingly are finally healthy now, though they’ve lost two in a row, both on the road. Auburn is also as close to full strength as they’ve been all year with Sharife Cooper having rejoined the lineup on January 9th. Cooper has made the Tigers a more explosive team offensively as they’ve scored 90 or more twice since his arrival. But Martin’s South Carolina teams always seem to give Auburn some trouble. Auburn has lost three in a row here in Columbia - by an average of 13.3 points/game. The Gamecocks are great at defending the three-point line (30.7% allowed), getting rebounds (1st in SEC) and forcing turnovers (16.6 per game). So this could very well be a fairly low-scoring affair. Auburn is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, which helps when playing the Under. The Tigers are 6-2 Under as underdogs this season. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-22-21 | Nuggets v. Suns OVER 217.5 | Top | 130-126 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Denver has won back to back games only two times this season. That’s what they’ll be trying to do tonight in Phoenix as the Nuggets are off a 119-101 win against Oklahoma City on Tuesday. They’re now 7-7 SU on the year and going by point differential, you’d think they should be better than that. Phoenix picked up right where it left off in the bubble with a 5-1 start, but has gone just 3-4 since. Yet they too are off a win as it was 109-103 at Houston Wednesday, ending a five-game trip on a positive note. The Suns only broke 110 points once on that trip and have done that just twice in the past nine games. But they average 111.7 at home and we look for an offensive breakthrough tonight. At the same time, Denver is averaging 116.8 on the road. So this total appears to be way too low. The Over has hit six of the last seven times the Nuggets have been an underdog. It’s 38-17-3 their last 58 overall. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-22-21 | Wright State v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 147.5 | Top | 95-65 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
THIS IS A 10* ON UNDER Though it’s an early start time Friday (Noon local), we expect Wright State to “show up” for this Horizon League tilt. Despite its current second place standing, the Raiders are probably the best team in this conference as they demonstrated last week when they crushed 1st place Cleveland State by 36. WSU allowed just 49 points in that game and shouldn’t have much trouble slowing down an IUPUI team that averages only 60.0 points at home. But the “catch” here is that IUPUI is only allowing 63.3 points/game at home. The Jaguars upset Northern Kentucky twice last week, winning 74-69 and 65-63 as an underdog of eight and seven points respectively. Those wins came on the road too. They’ve played just seven games because of COVID and the last two at home were played three weeks ago, both vs. Cleveland State. They allowed 59 and 65 points those two games. The Under has hit in all three IUPUI games this season. From a field goal percentage standpoint, Wright State’s defense is as good as it gets, limiting foes to 37.6. This should be a low-scoring, early game. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-18-21 | Kansas v. Baylor OVER 140.5 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Big game here with unbeaten Baylor (#2 in the country) taking on Kansas (#6). The Jayhawks will almost certainly be LOWER in the rankings by tipoff as they lost their most recent game, which was all the way back on Tuesday, 75-70 at Oklahoma State. Defensively speaking, the Jayhawks were terrible in that game as they gave up 37 fast-break points. They’ll need to be better against Baylor, but will it even matter? The Bears average 91.2 points/game in Waco and coming off two subpar offensive efforts, we see them regaining their touch tonight. The Bears’ defensive numbers are outstanding, but Kansas will be the best offensive team they’ll have faced so far. After playing Texas Tech on Saturday, how much will Baylor have left in the tank defensively? It’s a tough turnaround. The Over has hit in four of Kansas’ previous five games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-18-21 | Bruins v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Bruins split their first two games, both of which were against New Jersey. They won the first one 3-2 only to lose the rematch 2-1. It was a similar story for the Islanders against the Rangers. The Isles won the first (game) 5-0 and then lost the second 4-0. Another commonality here is that all four games these teams have played have gone Under. Look for that to change Monday. The big problem for the home team is that goalie Semyon Varlamov got hurt in warmups Saturday. His backup, Ilya Sorokin, did not play well though he wasn’t helped by turnovers. No word on who will be between the pipes tonight, but either way we don’t like their chances. Boston’s goaltending situation is more secure, but the Islanders are certainly capable of scoring in bunches, which we saw in the opener. The Over is 8-1 in the Bruins’ past nine Monday games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-17-21 | Pelicans v. Kings OVER 227 | Top | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Two struggling teams will go at it Sunday night with the Kings hosting the Pelicans. Sacramento has lost two straight and seven of nine. Even in those two victories - 128-124 over Chicago and 127-122 over Indiana, it’s pretty easy to pinpoint what the problem is. This team is very bad defensively. They are last - by a significant margin - in defensive efficiency, which means no team is giving up more points per possession. They have allowed at least 122 points in eight of those last nine games. That’s not good. Nor is a five-game losing streak for New Orleans, who has allowed an average of 114 points during that time. The Pelicans had gone Over in five straight before running into the Lakers, who lead the league in defensive efficiency, Friday night. This game should mark a return to high-scoring ways. Six of the last seven times these teams have met, the game has gone Over. The Pelicans did shoot 60% in the first half vs. the Lakers. The Over is 6-1 in Sacramento’s past seven home games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Browns were fortunate to jump out to a 28-0 lead on the Steelers last week and held on for a 48-37 win. Pittsburgh turning the ball over five times played a key role in how the game started and obviously the final result. It is unlikely Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City will be so generous. After watching the Browns defense give up over 500 yards passing last week, Mahomes has to be licking his chops. Cleveland’s pass defense has been very bad all year against the deep ball, on third downs and at stopping tight ends. The Chiefs offense is prolific in all those areas. The Browns allowed Mason Rudolph to throw for over 300 yards, for crying out loud! Bottom line is what you should expect here is a lot of points by KC, who is off a bye and rested most starters in Week 17. But the thing is Cleveland will score too. They’ve now had three 40+ point games in the last six weeks! With Chubb and Hunt, they have the best rushing attack in the league. The Chiefs’ defense is 31st (2nd worst) against the run. Also, the Chiefs defense has been very bad in the red zone, giving up a TD on 77% of all trips. That was the highest percentage in the league. The Browns offense scores a TD on 74% of its red zone opportunities, which is third best. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 49 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -107 | 45 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Snow is a possibility Saturday night in Buffalo, but as we’ve seen countless times before, the public often overreacts to that when it comes to betting the total. Both the Ravens and Bills can score in bunches and we don’t think the “white stuff” is going to be able to stop either team. Baltimore averages 28.7 points/game on the year. They only scored 20 last week, but had averaged 37.2 the previous five games. Buffalo averages 31.1 points/game on the year. The Ravens defense did a great job last week containing Derrick Henry, but the Bills’ passing attack may prove more difficult to contain. Josh Allen was 4th in the league in completion percentage and has been exceptional against the blitz (which the Ravens like to do), throwing a league high 17 TD passes against it. But the Bills need to be concerned about their own defense, which just allowed 472 yards to the Colts last week. They gave up 163 rushing and 309 passing. Lamar Jackson is likely to have another big game this week after running for over 100 yards vs. the Titans. Bills games are 12-4-1 to the Over this season, which is the second highest Over percentage in the league. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-15-21 | Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Let’s try this matchup again. We went with the Avs on Opening Night, but they were a 4-1 loser to the Blues, who they’ll face for a second time tonight. We were 2-0 last night on the ice and now shift to our 1st totals plays of the young season. With the new format, the Blues and Avalanche are going to become quite familiar with one another. They already are, having finished 1-2 in the “old” Central Division last season. While it’s difficult to believe the Avs get held to just one goal again here, it’s equally unlikely that St. Louis will score four goals again. The Under is 21-9 in Blues’ road games where the total is 6.0 or higher. Turnovers by the Avalanche were what led to the Blues’ goals on Wednesday. We expect them to clean that problem up. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-15-21 | Mavs v. Bucks OVER 226.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Milwaukee is on a real roll right now and seems poised to take control of the Eastern Conference for a third straight regular season. Wednesday’s 110-101 win in Detroit was the team’s third straight and sixth victory in the last seven games. Tonight presents a challenge though as they host a Dallas team that’s won and covered four straight. Expect lots of points from this matchup. While recent games - for both teams - have been a little lower-scoring than usual, look at who they’ve faced. The Bucks have played Detroit three times in the last six games while also facing Orlando and Cleveland. Dallas just faced Orlando and Charlotte. The Bucks are averaging 122.8 points/game at home and that average, if hit here, should ensure an Over by itself. You have to figure the Mavs are going to exceed 100 points as well as they’ve done so in all but two games, both of which were at home. The two times these teams played last year, there were 236 and 268 combined points scored (Dallas actually won both!). We don’t need that many, but the Mavs and Bucks are certainly capable of producing a game like that yet again. The Over is 22-4 the Bucks’ last 26 games vs. an opponent that has a winning record (Mavs are currently 6-4). Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints OVER 47 | Top | 9-21 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So the Bears’ offense somewhat transformed down the stretch, really taking off once they settled back on Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback. While it was disappointing to see them score only 16 last week against the Packers, they’d previously gone over 30 points in four consecutive contests. We obviously know what the Saints’ offense is capable of doing. Since Drew Brees returned to the lineup, NO has scored 29, 52 and 33 points. That 52 came the last time Alvin Kamara played as he tied a record with six touchdowns. Scoring 33 without him last week was almost as impressive. Kamara has been activated for this Wild Card Game as has WR Thomas. So a slumping Bears defense is now set to face a Saints offense operating at full strength. But that Bears defense won’t be operating at full strength as their best player (LB Smith) has been downgraded to “out.” They are just going to have to hope the offense can continue its average from the L5 weeks, which was 31.2 points/game, tied (with the Saints) for sixth. The teams combined for 49 (with the game winning FG kicked in OT) in the regular season matchup. Five of Chicago’s last six games have gone over 50. Two of the Saints last three went over 60. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Magic v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | Top | 98-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After sweeping two games in Cleveland, Orlando got absolutely hammered last night in Houston, losing 132-90. Not a good start to a stretch that will see them play eight of nine on the road. It was the first game since Markelle Fultz was lost to a season-ending knee injury. There were other absences too, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier to name a couple. Gordon could be back here, but we still expect the Magic to struggle offensively in this game. Dallas is coming off back to back wins, both as road underdogs, against Houston and Denver. The latter, which was on Thursday, went to overtime. In regulation, the Mavs scored just 109 points. In their only two previous home games, they failed to break 100. Orlando’s game last night fell right on the closing total. Before that, the Magic had held Cleveland below 100 in both games (83 and 94) and had gone Under in four straight. Both Orlando-Dallas matchups from last season did go Over, but those both occurred prior to the shutdown. One had a really low total while the other brought a hot shooting performance from the Mavs. Perhaps the biggest news you need to know for this game is that Dallas has had three players - Brunson, Finney-Smith and Richardson - ruled out due to COVID. So they are playing really short-handed against a team in the second night of a back to back. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Colts v. Bills OVER 51 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 70 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Bills haven’t won a playoff game in more than a quarter century, but this year’s team looks like the one that can break that streak. It’s the first time Buffalo has been favored in a playoff game since ‘96 and they come in having outscored their last six opponents by 119 points. They’ve averaged 38.2 points/game during the six-game win streak and just put up 56 last week when we told you to take the Over vs. Miami. (Went Over by themselves). For the Wild Card Round, the Bills draw an Indianapolis team that may not put quite as many points on the board, but the Colts have scored no fewer than 24 in any of the last eight games. This has all the makings of a shootout on Saturday as the Bills are an aggressive offense that likes to pass on first down while the Colts should have success running the ball with Jonathan Taylor, who just went over 250 yards rushing last week. Over the last four weeks, Indy allowed the third most passing yards in the league. The Over was 11-4-1 in Buffalo games during the regular season and that includes 3-1 when the total was 51 or higher. Take the OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-08-21 | Jazz v. Bucks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 131-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Utah comes into Friday having lost two straight. Both games were on the road and they were favored each time. Against Brooklyn, the Jazz clearly should NOT have been favored, but that was the Nets first game without Kevin Durant and the public overreacted in typical fashion. Utah lost by 34. Equally embarrassing was losing to the Knicks on Wednesday. Now they’ve got to head to Milwaukee for what seems like a sure loss. The Bucks have won three in a row, the last two both vs. Detroit, while scoring at least 125 every time out. But we look for this game to have a little less scoring than you might think. Except for that one game in Brooklyn, the Jazz are usually pretty solid at the defensive end. They’ve given up more than 112 just twice so far. The Bucks have allowed less than 100 three different times and have the chance to do that again tonight as Utah has broken 106 just once in the last five games. Jazz are 4-1 Under vs. teams that come in with a winning record while the Bucks are 2-0 Under when the total is 230 or higher. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-06-21 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 231.5 | Top | 102-94 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Both Charlotte and Atlanta will be looking to snap losing streaks Wednesday night. The Hornets have lost three in a row while the Hawks have lost two in a row. Maybe it’s time to “pump the breaks” a bit on Atlanta as they just lost to the Knicks and Cavs - at home. That hurt the goodwill built up in an impressive 4-1 start. But Charlotte isn’t very good and the Hawks should win this home game. To do so, they’ll likely need to score lots of points, something they could not do in either of the last two games. But before “giving up” on the Hawks, realize that they had 15-point second half leads against both the Cavs and Knicks. Lack of depth and fatigue seemed to be factors vs. NY, but they had 88 points through three quarters. We expect a big number from the home favorite in this game. Charlotte gave up 127 and 118 points its last two games, both of which were in Philadelphia. We should see some improvement from the Hornets in the scoring department here as they’ve shot just 41% the L3 games. The Over is 5-0 in the Hawks last five vs. teams that have losing records. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-05-21 | Bulls v. Blazers OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER After giving up 137 points on Sunday, 62 of those coming from Steph Curry, Portland looks to get back into the win column tonight vs. Chicago. The Bulls just picked up an upset win over Dallas, and while that was in the Windy City, the Blazers obviously can’t afford to take this game lightly. We like it to go Over the total as Portland has scored a total of 245 points in its two games since the New Year. So far, Bulls games are averaging more than 235 points. Blazers games are right there too (averaging 234.8 PPG). Those scoring averages place both teams in the top five of the league. So the oddsmakers probably can’t make this total high enough. Chicago is 11-5 Over when coming off a double digit win. The Over is also 15-7 their L22 as an underdog. With Portland, the Over is 44-21-1 the last 64 home games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 230.5 | Top | 124-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER At 1-4, Denver is off to a slow start to the season. Remember that this was a Conference Finalist three scant months ago, even if the path to get there was somewhat improbable. The Nuggets rallied from 3-1 series deficits in each of the first two rounds before eventually bowing out to the Lakers. They haven’t been so lucky this year with two of the four losses coming by three points or less. But tonight they face another struggling side in Minnesota, who has lost three in a row and failed to cover the spread in all three. The first four Nuggets’ games all went Over before the last one (106-103 loss to Phoenix) stayed Under. It’s been just the opposite for the Timberwolves whose first four all stayed Under before the last one (130-109 loss to Washington) went Over. The last four times the Nuggets and Timberwolves have met here in the Twin Cities, the Under is 4-0. Minnesota’s shooting has been quite poor thus far, especially from three-point range. Denver is 9-2 Under its last 11 games with a total of 230 or higher. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 44.5 | Top | 26-56 | Win | 100 | 112 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So here’s the situation with this Week 17 matchup from the AFC East. Buffalo can guarantee itself the #2 seed with a win. That would mean at least two home playoff games. The worst they can finish is #3, which would require them losing this game and Pittsburgh (who is playing backups) winning at Cleveland. Miami’s situation is more tenuous as they need to win here just to get into the playoffs. They are not necessarily eliminated with a loss, but that’s a situation they’d obviously like to avoid. Obviously, so much here depends on how long the Bills play their starters. Matt Barkley is the backup QB to Josh Allen. But quietly, the Dolphins have put up 26, 22 and 27 points the past three games. Tua Tagovailoa will have to start here as Ryan Fitzpatrick tested positive for COVID. The Dolphins have gone Over their last five times playing on turf. This was already a low total and continues to get lower. There has been only one Bills game all year where less than 43 total points were scored. Even with backups, we’ll get there. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Leicester v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Recent form couldn’t be more opposite from these two Premier League sides competing Sunday. Leicester City is looking to remain unbeaten for a 4th consecutive match while Newcastle has already gone that many without a win. So, if you didn’t already know, you won’t be shocked to find that Leicester is 3rd in the table while Newcastle is languishing in 14th place. We like the Over on Sunday. Leicester seemingly took it easy on Crystal Palace (due to a busy schedule), content for a 1-1 draw. But before that, the Foxes had scored multiple goals in five of six matches. Newcastle can be feisty at home and we expect them to put up a fight at St. James Park. They haven't scored a single goal in any of their last three matches, so they’re due to put at least one in the back of the net Sunday. Leicester is among the EPL leaders in goals scored this season. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-02-21 | Raptors v. Pelicans UNDER 213.5 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Toronto has endured a disappointing start to the season as they are 1-3. But they did pick up their first victory on Thursday and did so in rather convincing fashion, beating the Knicks 100-83. Tonight the Raptors head to the Big Easy to face a Pelicans team that has gone Under in all five of its games so far. The most recent was a 113-80 win at Oklahoma City. So we’ve got both teams looking to replicate their most recent effort. We think both are capable, at least on the defensive end. So these are two of the top three teams in the league in defensive efficiency thus far. New Orleans has held three of its first five opponents below 100 points. This is a rematch from Opening Night when the Pelicans won 113-99 in Florida (that’s where Toronto is playing its home games for the time being). The total here is much lower but given how the Pelicans have defended, that’s not a surprise. Also, the Raptors are shooting just 41.3% this season. But if there’s a silver lining for them it’s the fact the Pelicans are shooting just 31.1% from three. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State UNDER 58.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Oregon has to be one of the “oddest” Conference Champions in College Football history. The Ducks did not even qualify for the Pac 12 Championship Game, but took Washington’s spot once the Huskies could not play. Then they went out and upset USC 31-24. Their reward is a date with the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game, that being Iowa State, in the Fiesta Bowl. This should be one of the better bowl games and we don’t think it will be as high scoring as the oddsmakers think. Over their last eight games, ISU allowed 24 points or fewer six times. The Cyclones have a strong history of going Under in bowl games. Nine of their last 10 bowls have gone Under including six in a row. The three under current coach Matt Campbell have stayed Under by a total of 40 points. We’ll side with the trends. Speaking of trends, Iowa State is 20-5-1 Under its last 26 games vs. teams with winning records. The Under is also 36-14-2 the last 52 times the ‘Clones have gone off as the betting favorite. Despite the upset win over USC, Oregon QB Tyler Shough did not look particularly good in that game. But the Ducks are coming off two straight strong defensive efforts where they held Cal and USC below 360 total yards each. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Ohio State v. Clemson OVER 66.5 | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So we like BOTH CFP semifinals to go Over the total this year. Ohio State did not exactly face a slew of great offenses in the Big 10 this year. Well, they did face Indiana and gave up 35 points. Clemson is so much better than any previous Buckeyes opponent. Back at full strength, the Tigers have rolled to victories by 35, 35 and 24 points since Trevor Lawrence returned. The fewest points scored in any game by Clemson this season was 34. We project them to eclipse that number here as they are averaging 44.9 and an even higher number when Lawrence plays. But Ohio State also is averaging more than 40 points/game (42.5) and we think they’ll have more offensive success than you might think. The Buckeyes only hope here is to put a bunch of points on the board. The good news is that they are more than capable. They average 529 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play. They scored 38 points or more in every game but the Big 10 Championship when they were facing a stingy Northwestern defense. This will be a much higher scoring game compared to when these teams faced off in last year’s CFP semifinals as this time it’s indoors (Superdome). Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Celtics v. Pistons UNDER 215.5 | Top | 93-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Detroit has done little to sway us on their awful preseason projection as they’ve started 0-4. This figures to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, if not THE worst. Every loss has come by at least eight points and now they have to host Boston on New Year’s Day. The Celtics are 3-2 following consecutive wins over Indiana and Memphis. This will be the first of two games here in Beantown these teams will play, the next one coming on Sunday. While the Celtics got a career high 42 points from Jayson Tatum against the Grizzlies (he shot 15 of 21), that’s not something we see happening again anytime soon. Kemba Walker remains sidelined with an injury. The defense has not been great thus far for the Pistons, but neither has the shooting, including just 38% vs. Golden State on Tuesday. After allowing above 50% shooting its first four games, Boston’s defense improved dramatically vs. Memphis and we expect it to stay there. The Under is 6-2-1 when the Celtics are off a game where they scored 125+ and 14-6 when they are off a double digit win. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International UNDER 151 | Top | 67-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER FIU is averaging 88.6 points/game so far, but that number will almost assuredly start to come down. The lofty scoring average has more to do with whom the Panthers have faced thus far. They just hung 113 on Carver Bible, a performance that you certainly shouldn’t put much stock in. Two games ago, FIU went to double overtime with Ga Southern, so that point total was artificially inflated. Bottom line: their hot shooting to start this season is due to cool off. Old Dominion hasn’t shot well on the road (39.4%) nor from three point range anywhere (27% overall). This figures to be among the highest totals for any Monarchs game all season. A team that doesn’t shoot it well away from home going against a team due for a downturn in shooting has all the makings of an Under, particularly on New Year’s Day when both teams could be a bit “sleepy.” This is our top total of the month from Conference USA. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Notre Dame v. Alabama OVER 65.5 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Not only do we like the points in the Rose Bowl, we expect there will be plenty of points scored. We already detailed why we think Notre Dame will cover this game. Part of the rationale was that they’ll score plenty of points. Well, there’s no sugarcoating the fact Alabama will as well. This Tide offense may be the best in school history. They are averaging almost 50 points/game and have gone over 50 three straight games. The SEC Championship Game vs. Florida was a 52-46 final. The two times Notre Dame played Clemson, they gave up 34 and 40 points. They are likely to give up at least 41 here as Bama has hit that number in each of its last 10 tries. That means Notre Dame would have to score around 24 to both cover and send this one Over. Considering Alabama didn’t face that many good offenses this year, that should happen for the Irish. Florida was by far the best offensive team the Crimson Tide faced all year and look how many points they gave up in that one. The Over is now 22-8-2 in Alabama’s past 32 neutral site games. The Over is also 4-1 the last five times ND has been off a loss by 20 or more. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-31-20 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin UNDER 143 | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Minnesota has had a very impressive last three games as they’ve knocked off St. Louis (who was undefeated at the time), Iowa (a top 10 team) and Michigan State (by 25 points). However, all three of those wins did come at home. Tonight they hit the road to face Wisconsin and the Golden Gophers certainly hope this goes better than their only previous road game did. A 92-65 loss at Illinois is the only blemish on Minnesota’s resume this season and while losing to one of the best teams in the country isn’t a big deal, getting blown out is never a good look. Wisconsin isn’t going to be in a good mood here as they are off a loss to Maryland which snapped a 5-0 SU and ATS run. Both teams have been going Over a lot recently, but we see that changing here as the Badgers allow just 57.9 points/game at home. This will be Minnesota’s fifth consecutive game against a team that entered either unbeaten or ranked in the Top 15. These teams met twice last season and the totals for those games were 129 and 125.5. This one is much higher. Wisconsin plays at a very slow pace and Minnesota, who has been getting to the FT line A LOT lately, won’t get there as much today. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-30-20 | Seton Hall v. Xavier OVER 144 | Top | 85-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Seton Hall probably won’t be the least bit bothered by being the underdog in this game. The Pirates are a perfect 10-0 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Furthermore, they are catching Xavier off its first loss of the season. The Musketeers went down at the hands of #11 Creighton, 66-61, but did at least cover as 7-pt underdogs. These teams met twice last season with the road team, an underdog each time, winning both games. But Seton Hall plus the points isn’t the best course of action tonight, rather it’s playing the Over. Xavier has been a bit of a “scoring machine” as it is averaging 81.6 points/game for the year and 85.1 points/game at home. Seton Hall is averaging 76.7 points/game and gives up 77.0 on the road. This is a game where both teams seem destined to score over 70 points. Considering that, the O/U looks to be too low. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Xavier has been off a SU loss. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-28-20 | Fresno State v. Colorado State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Fresno State and Colorado State haven’t played all that much this season. In fact, Fresno has played just twice - both games against non-board teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific). So the fact they are 2-0 really doesn’t mean much coming into the MWC opener. Colorado State is 3-1, their only loss coming in a putrid offensive effort vs. St. Mary’s where they scored all of 33 points. Under is our call in this one as neither team is in much of a rhythm right now. Against Fresno Pacific, who is not even a Division I team, Fresno State could only muster 39.1% shooting from the field, which is just terrible. On the bright side, they’ve held both opponents this year below 35% shooting. Colorado State has held its last three opponents all below 37%. That one stinker vs. St. Mary’s is obviously holding the Rams’ offensive numbers down. But this isn’t really a great offensive team by any stretch. Facing a “real” team for the 1st time this year will be a shock for Fresno State and this game stays Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Bears v. Jaguars UNDER 47.5 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER All of a sudden, Chicago has a shot at the playoffs. This after being “left for dead” when a 6-game losing streak had them at 5-7. But back to back wins have turned things around in a dramatic way. They still need to win out and have Arizona lose once. Winning this week should not prove difficult as they are facing Jacksonville, losers of 13 in a row. The Jaguars’ offensive numbers are just terrible. They average only 17.0 points/game at home. So whether it's Gardner Minshew or Mike Glennon starting at quarterback (looking like Glennon) is of little concern. Remember Jacksonville shouldn't want to win as they are line to get the #1 pick. But we wouldn’t dare lay this many points with a Bears team that is just 3-10 ATS its last 13 games as a favorite. While the situation may seem conducive for a big offensive game from Chicago, a 4th straight game from them with 30 or more points would be somewhat unprecedented. You’d have to go back to 1965 to find the last time a Bears team did that. Let’s be careful about anointing Mitchell Trubisky as anything special. The Bears are not a team that can send the game Over themselves, so let’s play Under as the Bears DEFENSE should be the stars Sunday. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Magic v. Wizards OVER 228 | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Magic and the Wizards will play each other on both Saturday and Sunday in D.C., part of a new scheduling approach you’ll see more of in the NBA this season. For this first meeting, we are expecting a good deal of points to be scored. Orlando is off an impressive 113-107 win over Miami in its opening game while Washington lost by that same exact score (what a coincidence!) in Philadelphia. Making his Wizards’ debut, Russell Westbrook had a triple double, though it wasn’t enough to get his new team over the hump. Still, we expect plenty of scoring in Wizards’ games this season. Not just because of what Westbrook can do, but also because Bradley Beal was having a career year before getting hurt last year. Unfortunately though for Washington, they were also one of the worst defensive teams in the league last year and that probably won’t change in 2020-21. The Over is on an 83-54 run in Wizards games when the total is 220 or higher. It’s also 13-4 when they play with 2 days of rest and 44-20 when facing a team that has a winning record. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 47-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER When Tampa Bay went out and signed Tom Brady, making the playoffs became not just a goal, but an expectation. With a win Saturday in Detroit, the 9-5 Buccaneers can officially realize that expectation and start concentrating on a Super Bowl. The 5-9 Lions don’t figure to offer much resistance, especially with interim head coach Darrell Bevell and defensive coordinator Cory Undlin set to miss the game because of COVID. Since Bevell also serves as the offensive coordinator, look for the Lions offense to struggle. QB Stafford has injured ribs and QB coach Sean Ryan will be calling plays, something he’s never done in a NFL game. Expect the Lions, who don’t have much success running the ball to begin with, to have virtually zero success doing so in this game. The Bucs have the best run defense in the league, yielding only 78 yards per game. On the offensive side of the ball, slow starts have been a problem all year for TB. The Lions are 11-5 Under L16 December games. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Memphis OVER 50 | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We look to make it three straight Overs to open the bowl season. While only the two bowls we’ve played (first two) have gone Over thus far, even last night’s UFC-BYU game featured plenty of scoring (72 total points). The only reason that one didn’t go Over is that it had the highest O/U of any bowl this season. There’s just not much incentive for these teams to play solid defense this time of year. Florida Atlantic should be the latest example. While the Owls only gave up 16.5 points/game in the regular season, it was shredded in the finale for 45 by a terrible Southern Miss squad. Memphis, who is certainly capable of putting up a big number, should do so here in the Montgomery Bowl. They averaged 450 yards/game in the regular season and scored 40 or more points three different times. Interestingly, FAU is 4-0 all-time in bowls while Memphis has lost five straight bowl games. The Tigers definitely should be motivated to come out and put up a lot of points. FAU will score enough too. The Over is 14-5 in Memphis’ L19 non-conf games Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Towson v. George Mason OVER 137.5 | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s not been a strong start to the year for Towson, although that was probably to be expected as Tigers’ first three games have come against Virginia, San Francisco and Buffalo. They were the dog in all three games and are a predictable 0-3. It’s been almost a MONTH since we’ve seen them, due to COVID cancellations. Their ATS record is also 0-3. George Mason is also 0-3 ATS, although they did win their last two games SU - beating Howard and VMI. The Patriots’ schedule has obviously been a lot less challenging than Towson’s, however there are several suspensions that GMU is currently dealing with. We like this game to go Over as it’s a low total and the shooting from both sides is due for improvement. Towson has made less than 40% of its field goal attempts thus far, which is insane. They have allowed at least 74 points in every game and unfortunately (for them), we don’t see that changing. George Mason gave up 77 and 70 its first two games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 56.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER There was no shortage of scoring in the first bowl game and we expect the same thing in bowl game #2. Our participants in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl are Tulane and Nevada. Tulane was 6-5 in the regular season, covering the spread in six of the last seven games. The lone non-cover was against Tulsa, whom they led 14-0 in the fourth quarter while getting +4.5 from the oddsmakers. The Green Wave were not only 0-2 in overtime games this year, there were also two early season games where they led by 17 or more points and still lost! But the bottom line is they still averaged more than 35 points and that Tulsa loss is the only game since September where they didn’t hit 31. Now onto Nevada, who was once 5-0, but ended up 6-2. The Wolfpack scored 34 or more in half their games. They had 20 at halftime vs. SJSU, but were shockingly shutout after that. If not for that second half blanking, they would have averaged more than 30 points/game this season. Nevada has a good QB in Carson Strong and he definitely catches a break here as the Tulane defense will be without two All-Conference selections. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 40.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Neither the Steelers nor the Bengals have done much scoring lately. Pittsburgh, who was 11-0 but now is 11-2, has not scored more than 19 points in any of its last three games. While a matchup with 2-10-1 Cincinnati certainly seems like a recipe for success, the Steelers simply won’t have to score many points to come out ahead in this one. That’s because their defense - still one of the league’s best - figures to have one of easiest “days at the office” on Monday. The Bengals are starting Ryan Finley at QB tonight. He’s even worse than Bradon Allen, who quite frankly wasn’t very effective himself in filling in for the injured Joe Burrow. In the last five games, Cincinnati has scored just 50 points total, never more than 17 in any one game. How do you think they are going to perform with a third string QB going against the league’s #1 scoring defense? Pittsburgh won’t put up 30 in this game, simply because they “don’t have to.” Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Belmont v. Evansville UNDER 138 | Top | 72-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Belmont is off and running with a 7-1 start to the season. The Bruins are averaging 80 points/game. The only loss was a bit of a head-scratcher as they fell, as 17.5-point home favorites, to Samford. Of course, Samford is a team that scores plenty of points as was very obvious with that game ending up 96-83. Evansville isn’t going to score anywhere in that neighborhood, however. The Purple Aces are putting up an average of just 65.2 points in their five games so far and only one time have they topped 68. Evansville hasn’t shot well so far as they’re below 40% overall from the field. One area where they’ve REALLY struggled is defending the three-point line. Opponents are making 46% of their threes against the Purple Aces and the two previous teams that visited here hit 55% from behind the arc! You really can’t get any worse than that, so even if Evansville’s actual defense doesn’t improve, the opposition’s shooting will cool off regardless. Belmont is not a great three-point shooting team. This one stays Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State OVER 65 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER With North Texas involved, it’s very difficult to imagine the Myrtle Beach Bowl NOT being high-scoring. The Mean Green give up over 500 yards and 41 points per game. Six of their nine regular season games went Over the total. It’s a tough bowl assignment here as they’re matched up against an Appalachian State team whose three losses came to teams (Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, Marshall) that are a combined 27-3 SU. The Mountaineers very much deserve to be the biggest favorite in all the bowls, but because they have the worst ATS record (2-9) of all the bowl teams, we can’t justify laying this number. Of course, North Texas hasn’t been very good at the betting window either (0-3 ATS L3), but what they are good at is offense. The Mean Green had the best passing attack in Conference USA and averaged over 35 points and 500 yards per game. But back to the defense, NT has given up a total of 140 points in its last three bowl appearances. Appalachian State will run for a lot of yards in this game, which will easily go Over. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants OVER 45 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -114 | 116 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Browns played a thriller Monday night, ultimately coming up short against Baltimore by a score of 47-42. It probably won’t be that high scoring again Sunday night, but we still like the Over vs. the Giants. The Browns have scored 83 points themselves the last two games, despite facing two probable playoff teams. So the fact the Giants have gone Under in four straight against winning teams and their last four overall doesn’t mean much to us, even if backup Colt McCoy is forced into a starting role again. Freddie Kitchens, the Browns former head coach, will be calling plays here for the G-Men. That’s interesting. He should know the opponent well. The Browns defense has given up 82 points the last two games. The Giants defense will be playing without its best cornerback, James Bradberry. The Browns are 4-0 Over the last four times they’ve been a road favorite. The Giants are on a 7-3 Over run after scoring 15 points or less their previous game. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Geoffrey Neal v. Stephen Thompson UNDER 4.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 94 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS Thompson, the #5 ranked welterweight in UFC, should very much be viewed as a “gatekeeper” at this stage of his UFC career. He’s still one of the division’s best, but has been unsuccessful in two previous title shots. Off a win against Vicente Luque, he’ll next face Neal, who is on a 5-0 run coming into this fight. Four of those five wins for Neal have been finishes including the last two. Both of these fighters are very accurate strikers. Thompson does the better job at avoiding punishment, but when he absorbs it, he’s the more likely to go down. The odds already flipped for this fight and could very well flip back in Thompson’s direction by the time these two hit the cage. Regardless, it will be an exciting fight where someone finishes the other. Take the Under here, which is set at 4.5 rounds. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Panthers v. Packers OVER 51 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -108 | 92 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER At 4-9, Carolina has no shot at making the playoffs. But we can count on them to score. In four of the last five games, the Panthers have scored at least 23 points. The problem is they have LOST all four of those games. The one win in that five-game stretch was 20-0 over Detroit. Good luck here shutting out Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has been playing at an elite level of late, scoring 30 or more in four consecutive contests. That shouldn’t be a surprise though. Rodgers and the GB offense are averaging 31.5 points/game for the season. Packers’ games are averaging more than 55 points total, which easily exceeds the OU for this matchup. Other than that shutout of the Lions, which should be viewed as an anomaly, the Panthers defense has permitted 25 or more points in every game since 10/25. In the last four losses (and you figure they are going to lose this week), they have given up 33, 46, 28 and 32 points. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati OVER 45 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 55 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The American Athletic Conference Championship Game features two defenses that are giving up less than 20 points per game. However, we think you’re going to see plenty of points come Saturday night. Cincinnati has really gotten a “raw deal” from the playoff committee as the Bearcats should definitely be ranked higher than 9th considering they are 8-0. They average 40 points/game and will be looking to make a “statement” in front of a national TV audience Saturday night. Over the last five games, Cincy has scored 36, 55, 38, 49 and 42 points. An interesting thing with Tulsa is that they avoided a lot of the top offenses in the AAC. The only loss for the Golden Hurricane was to Oklahoma State, but that was not the Cowboys at full strength (they were using a backup QB). This is a really low total and we expect Cincinnati to score at least 30 in this game. These teams were supposed to play last week, but the Bearcats had to cancel due to COVID. Had that game been played, there would be a sense of familiarity. But it wasn’t played and thus that potential edge for the defenses is not there.Tulsa is going to score enough to make sure this one goes Over as they scored at least 28 against everyone besides Oklahoma State and Navy, their first and most recent games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 56.5 | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Despite playing only five games, Ohio State is in the Big 10 Championship Game. We have no problem with the conference changing the rules “on the fly” as the Buckeyes are clearly the Big 10’s best team. Not surprisingly, they are huge favorites to beat 6-1 Northwestern. It will be the 14th time OSU has been favored by 20 or more under Ryan Day and they’ve previously gone 8-5 ATS. Only one of those games was decided by fewer than 11 points and it was the 42-35 win over Indiana earlier this year. But it’s still a lot of points to lay in a Conference Championship Game. What we are confident in here is the Buckeyes scoring lots of points. They are averaging 46.6 per game and the fewest they’ve scored in a game this year was 38. Northwestern has a pretty stout defense, however they’ve yet to face an offense this dynamic in 2020. Expect a final score in the neighborhood of 40-20 for this year’s Big 10 Title Game as Ohio State moves on to the College Football Playoff. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times N’western has been a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-17-20 | Kansas v. Texas Tech OVER 132.5 | Top | 58-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Considering Texas Tech’s defensive prowess, going Over might seem like a “play at your own risk” type situation. But a) the total is low here and b) Kansas can score. The Jayhawks have faced a lot of top teams already and are averaging 81.6 points/game. They are shooting nearly 40% from three! Last time out they went for 95 points. Yes, that was against a terrible Omaha team. But it was also the 4th game of 90 or more points for Kansas this season. We don’t need nearly that many for an Over tonight. Texas Tech has scored 80 or more in four of its seven games. Again, you’ve got to factor in the competition. But asking both Kansas and Tech to score 65 tonight doesn’t seem like it’s asking for much. Kansas likes to play fast, so it will be interesting if they can push the tempo. We think they will - at least enough to have an effect on the scoring. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Kansas has been an underdog and 7-1 their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Texas Tech has that same record against .500 or better foes. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-14-20 | William & Mary v. George Washington UNDER 148 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER William & Mary has played just one game so far and it was an 86-78 loss to old Colonial rival Old Dominion. The Tribe will now face the Colonials, although again not a conference rival, in George Washington Monday. GW is just 1-4 with the lone win coming against Coppin State. The other four games, losses to Navy, Hampton, UMBC and Delaware, have seen them give up lots of points. Truthfully, it’s been a terrible start for the Colonials. We would never lay points with them, at least right now, but do think the defense is going to improve. Honestly, they haven’t been that bad at the defensive end of the floor, save for the game where they got blitzed by UMBC. Three of the last four opponents have shot less than 41%. William & Mary won’t shoot 50% again like they did vs. ODU. This game was supposed to be played on December 5th, but got rescheduled because of COVID. It’s the first meeting in 17 years between the two Virginia schools. It’ll end up lower-scoring than expected. W&M is 5-1 Under as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles UNDER 44.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The Saints have gone Under in their last five games. The Eagles have gone Under in their last six games. The total for this game being so low should not be a surprise then, especially because Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts will be making his first NFL start against a defense that has given up a total of just 44 points in its last five games. That New Orleans defense is 1st in the league in yards allowed, 2nd against the run, 4th against the pass and 4th in scoring. They also have the 3rd most sacks while forcing the 7th most turnovers. The Eagles have not scored more than 17 points in any of the last four games and stand little chance of doing so here. Over those last five games, the Saints’ D has allowed just two touchdowns and one was in garbage time last week vs. Atlanta. Remember that Taysom Hill is still the Saints starting QB, so they won’t be putting up a lot of points either. They can simply rely on the run game in what should be an easy victory that won’t require many points. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 51.5 | Top | 44-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Indianapolis should put up a lot of points here against a Raiders defense that has allowed 35, 43 and 28 points the last three weeks. While the 28 points allowed last week were the fewest of the three games, Las Vegas was facing the winless Jets and nearly lost that game. The Colts have scored at least 26 points in four straight games and Baltimore is the only team to hold them below that number in the last seven games. The good news for Las Vegas is they’ve scored 31 or more in four of their last five games. So this should turn into a shootout Sunday in Sin City. The Colts defense had been really strong in the early part of the season, but injuries have started to take their toll. The last three games have seen them allow an average of 32 points. The Over is 9-3 in Raiders’ games this season, the second highest such percentage in the league. So high-scoring games are nothing new to them. Same with the Colts, who are 6-2 Over their last eight games. Both teams could easily go for 30+ here. The Raiders are on a 6-0-1 Over run as home dogs. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-11-20 | UTEP v. North Texas UNDER 63 | Top | 43-45 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER While North Texas is technically the “road team” for this game, it is being played at Apogee Stadium in Denton, which is their home. This matchup was originally going to take place on October 31st in El Paso before having to be rescheduled. North Texas has been fortunate in that this is the seventh time in nine games they’ve gotten to play at home. But they haven’t taken advantage, going just 2-4 in Denton. It’s been a rough last two weeks for the Mean Green as they’ve scored just 48 total points while giving up 40+ in a pair of losses. But we look for the defense to get a reprieve this week against a rusty UTEP offense that has not taken the field in four weeks. It’s not as if the Miners were doing much offensively before COVID wreaked havoc on their schedule. They come in averaging only 20.1 points/game. The UTEP defense has done a pretty good job at stopping the run though and that is critical when facing this North Texas offense. We see this ending up as a surprisingly low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-08-20 | Cal-Irvine v. USC OVER 135.5 | Top | 56-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER USC looks to rebound from its first loss of the season here, hosting UC Irvine. The Trojans fell 61-58 to UConn last Thursday, shooting only 35.8% in the process. That wasn’t just a season-low in FG%, it was also the 1st time the Trojans were held below 50% overall shooting in a game this year. Their defense has been dominant in holding three straight opponents below 35% shooting. But it’s hard to keep doing that. UC Irvine is off a win where it scored over 100 points, though the opponent (La Sierra?) had a lot to do with that. Still we expect the Anteaters to score more than they’re expected to tonight. The problem will be that they’ve allowed over 80 PPG to Division I opponents thus far and Southern Cal figures to have a big bounce back game at the offensive end. The Over is 4-0 in UC Irvine’s last four road games and 5-1 their last six as an underdog. Play OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Lamar Jackson is off the COVID-19 list, which means we can just assume he’s going to start tonight for the Ravens. That’s bad news for a Cowboys defense that’s already giving up 32.6 points/game, which is the most in the league this season. Particularly concerning for the Cowboys is a run defense which is last in the league, allowing 156.4 yards per game. Baltimore will get both Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins back this week after both missed last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. As a team, the Ravens have run for 100+ yards in 34 consecutive games. So they’re going to move the ball in this game. Last time we saw Dallas they allowed 41 against Washington on Thanksgiving Day. That horrid effort dropped them to 3-8 on the year. With Andy Dalton as the starting QB, you may not be expecting much from the Cowboys offense tonight. But they did put up 31 on the Vikings two weeks ago. Scoring only 16 against an excellent Washington defense (did you see last night?) should not be viewed as a big deal. The Ravens defense has given up at least 28 points in three of their last six games. The Over is 4-1 the last five times Baltimore has been off a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-08-20 | Juventus v. Barcelona FC OVER 3 | Top | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 7* on the OVER As was expected, Barcelona and Juventus have dominated Group G of the Champions League. Both have already booked their spot in the knockout stage with Barca a perfect 5-0 and Juventus 4-0-1. It would take one heck of a performance by “The Old Lady” (Juventus) on Tuesday to wrest away the top spot in the Group. This is because Barca has an aggregate score of 16-2 in winning their first five five fixtures. Juventus’ goal differential is only +7. Of course, the best way to rectify that discrepancy is to score plenty of goals here. Problem is that Barca has not lost in the Group Stage of the UCL since 2016-17, a span of 25 matches. They are also unbeaten in 38 straight matches at home in European competition. They won the reverse fixture 2-0 back on October 28th. But if anyone can run up a big score here, it would be Juventus, who put the ball in the back of the net three times in their last UCL fixture. There’s the issue of Barca’s La Liga inconsistency creeping in here. Both managers are expected to select strong lineups. We’re on the Over. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-07-20 | Bills v. 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Because of Covid, the 49ers have lost their home field advantage. This game is being played in Arizona (Cardinals stadium) as will next week’s “home game” vs. Washington. That’s a pretty significant disadvantage for the stretch run, although the Niners did just go on the road and beat a very good Rams team last week. Buffalo has already played once here in Arizona and that’s a game they’d like to forget as they lost on the infamous “Hail Murray.” If you recall, that was a high scoring game (32-30) as are most Bills games with the average number of total points scored being 52.8. That’s noticeably higher than the total set for tonight. The 49ers average 27.2 points/game at home, which is up from what they are averaging on the road. A key for them last week was that WR Deebo Samuel, who leads the league in yards after catch, returned to the lineup. The Over is 7-3-1 for the Bills this season including 7-0-1 when they are off a win. (They put up 27 in beating the Chargers last Sunday). Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals OVER 48.5 | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 94 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Even with Kyler Murray nursing a shoulder injury, we think there’s going to be plenty of offense in this game -- from both sides. The good news for Murray and the Cardinals is that this game is at home. The Rams defense just hasn’t been as good on the road as it's been at home. They give up 23.3 points/game on the road compared to just 15.0 in Los Angeles. Arizona is one of the best rushing teams as they lead the league in yards per attempt and are 4th overall in rushing yards. They and the Rams both run up-tempo offense, which is conducive to the game going Over. All five times that Arizona has covered as a home dog for Kingsbury, the game has gone Over. (We like the Cardinals to cover this week). The Rams may have the highest Under percentage in the league this season (tied with Chicago at 8-2) but something to keep in mind is the Under is 5-0 when they’re at home. Again, this game is being played in Arizona, not LA. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-05-20 | Colorado v. Arizona UNDER 58 | Top | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Colorado and Arizona have gotten off to very different starts. Colorado is 3-0 and they look to keep rolling here against an 0-3 Arizona team that will be an underdog for the 19th time in 23 games under Kevin Sumlin against Power 5 competition. ‘Zona hasn’t fared too well as a dog, going just 4-15 straight up. They’ve lost a school-record 10 in a row, dating back to last season. They haven’t covered either of the last two weeks, losing by 17 points both times. Colorado is 3-0 ATS as well as SU, so it’s not a surprise that the line has moved in their direction all week long. But we’re not about to lay this many with a team that has won by only 10, 3 and 6 points. Two of those games, the Buffaloes were the underdog. Neither of these offenses are all that explosive as the Buffs have just one play of 40+ yards while the Wildcats have just one play of 34+ yards. Colorado’s offense is excellent at dominating the time of possession, but it’s red zone efficiency (13 for 13 with 11 touchdowns) isn’t likely to be maintained moving forward. That has us on the Under this week. Both teams have seen their point totals decrease every game. Arizona has an injury at QB. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State OVER 53 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Sun Belt is really strong at the top this year. The conference currently boasts two Top 25 teams and neither is Appalachian State, who has been the standard-bearer the last couple seasons. It should be a good one Friday night in Boone, NC as App State hosts #25 Louisiana, who will be playing in the Conference Championship Game on December 19th against a Coastal Carolina team that might still be undefeated. It’ll be the third straight year for Louisiana in that game. They’ve never won it, nor have they ever defeated Appalachian State (0-8) since they became conference rivals. It won’t be easy this time either though they do average 35.0 points/game after scoring 70 last week. On the flip side, look for Appalachian State to move the ball in this game via the run. The Mountaineers are averaging 256 rushing yards per game. That’s a problem for a Louisiana defense that is allowing 170 rushing yards per game. The Ragin Cajuns have already permitted 16 rushing touchdowns and when they faced Coastal Carolina earlier in the year, they allowed 200+ yards on the ground and a pair of touchdowns. Two offenses averaging more than 30 points/game merit a total higher than this. Play on the OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-02-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas UNDER 148.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Arkansas will look to make it 3 for 3 to open the year when they host UT Arlington Wednesday night. The Razorbacks opened the season by winning by 80 (!) against Miss Valley State and then by 15 against North Texas. UT Arlington is unbeaten against the spread (3-0), but just 1-2 straight up as they suffered close losses to Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech before beating Northwestern State on Saturday. The fact that Arkansas has scored 142 points in a game is something that caused the oddsmakers to pay attention. So expect high totals the next few games. But the offense quickly came back down to Earth against North Texas, scoring “only” 69 points. They also did a really solid job defensively in that game. Giving up an average of less than 60 points on 33% shooting is something we like to see. UT Arlington has gone Under eight straight times as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. They are shooting only 29% from three so far. Arkansas is 11-3 Under as a home favorite of more than 12 points. Number is too high here. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-01-20 | Michigan State v. Duke OVER 152 | Top | 75-69 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER We get a Top 10 battle Tuesday night with Duke hosting Michigan State. The Blue Devils have definitely had the Spartans number through the years, winning eight of the nine head to head meetings. Both teams struggled to hold onto big leads in their last game and turnovers have been an ongoing issue as well. We expect this to turn into a bit of a shootout. Duke let Coppin State make 10 three-pointers on Saturday. Michigan State obviously possesses a much better shot-making ability than Coppin State. They’ve scored 80 in both games with the Over being 2-0. Duke is no slouch offensively either as Coach K’s charges made 53.1% of its shots in the first game. When these teams played last year, it was all Blue Devils in an 87-75 win that easily surpassed the 142.5 point O/U line. Lots of different names this go around, especially on the Duke side, but the firepower is still there. Play on OVER AAA |