Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-19 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER on NY Mets-Miami The Mets had a chance to sweep the Nationals yesterday, which would have been quite the statement to open the season. But a late rally ultimately fell short as they lost in walkoff fashion. Still, you have to like what you've seen from this club so far. Miami is going to struggle massively this season in a NL East where the other four teams are all thinking playoffs. That said, winning the last two games while holding the Rockies to just three runs is impressive. We look for this game to be low-scoring. These division foes ended last season with a three-game series against one another and the Mets scored a total of three runs. They also shut Miami out in two of the three games. One of those games was started by Steven Matz, who tossed six innings of three-hit ball. Matz posted a 1.53 ERA in three starts vs. Miami last season. Really, the only problem he had in a strong 2018 (3.97 ERA) was lack of run support. That's how he ended up with no wins in his final seven starts despite a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Mets scored three runs or less 13 times for Matz last season. It's early, but the Marlins are batting just .216 so far. But starter Caleb Smith should keep them in this one as he had a 3.09 ERA in a couple of starts vs. NY last year. Play UNDER NY Mets-Miami AAA |
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03-31-19 | Michigan State v. Duke UNDER 150.5 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Michigan State-Duke These two national powers approach their Elite 8 matchup with serious injury concerns. For Duke, Cam Reddish was a late scratch Friday night vs. Va Tech. For a second straight game, the Blue Devils had to hold on as a last second shot by their opponent (that would have been a game-winner) rolled off the rim. Michigan State lost Nick Ward to a hand injury late in their Sweet 16 victory over LSU. But he said he will play here. While the Spartans scored 80 against LSU, they actually shot better the game before against Minnesota. We don't look for them to shoot that well or score as many in this game. Duke, like Michigan State, is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. Both teams are holding their opponents to a field goal percentage below 40.0 for the season. The Blue Devils are not a great three-point shooting team, but have been better than usual the last two games. Don't look for that trend to continue, however. For the year, they are at just 27.1% from behind the arc away from Cameron. Take Tre Jones going 5 for 7 out of the equation and the rest of the Blue Devils shot just 1 of 13 on three-pointers against Va Tech. The team shot 55% overall, but that won't be repeated here. Good news for Duke is they hold their opponents to under 30% from three-point range. Low-scoring game between the top two seeds in the East Region. Play UNDER Michigan State-Duke AAA |
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03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5 | Top | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Auburn-Kentucky Well, there will be one SEC team in the Final Four. We just don't know if it'll be Auburn or Kentucky. This all-SEC Elite 8 matchup pits the 5th seeded Tigers against the 2nd seeded Wildcats and is the third time they'll have met this season. Kentucky won the first two, 82-80 on the road and 80-53 on the road. Obviously, the major difference between the two games was how much worse Auburn was on offense in Lexington. This game is being played at a neutral site and considering how strong the Tigers have looked offensively in this Tournament, you'd think that this rubber match is inclined to more closely resemble the first regular season meeting. But Kentucky is playing lock down defense. As a result 9 of its last 11 games have stayed Under. And Auburn's offense has suffered a major blow with third leading scorer Chuma Okeke out with a knee injury. Okeke was leading the team with 20 points against North Carolina when the injury was suffered. As for the UK offense, they don't make that many threes and have scored only 62 points each of the last two games. The Under is 13-3 in the Wildcats last 16 NCAA Tournament games plus 12-3 the last 15 times they've taken on Auburn. Play UNDER Auburn-Kentucky AAA |
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03-30-19 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Braves-Phillies With the addition of Bryce Harper making expectations sky high, the Phillies figure to be a pretty "public" team in 2019. Even with Harper hitless, they still managed to crush the Braves Opening Day, winning 10-4. Him being intentionally walked did set up the pivotal at-bat of the game, that being a Rhys Hoskins' grand slam. Atlanta's starting rotation is in shambles to start the season with both Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman on the DL. This forces rookie Bryse Wilson into the starter's role for today and we look for him to struggle with the Phillies lineup, just as predecessor Julio Teheran did. At the big league level, Wilson has made just one start and two relief appearances. Make no mistake about it, he's only in this spot due to injuries. Philadelphia hit three home runs Thursday. Their offense figures to score plenty again here, but don't be surprised to see them give up some runs here too. Starter Pivetta had a pretty high ERA (4.80) last year and the Over is 6-1 the last seven times he's started the second game of a series. The Phillies had the worst defense in the league last year and that could account for some extra runs scored here too. Play OVER Atlanta-Philadelphia AAA |
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03-29-19 | Auburn v. North Carolina OVER 164 | Top | 97-80 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Auburn-North Carolina This game figures to see plenty of points. Both teams are averaging over 80 points per game in the tournament. Both average either more (North Carolina) or close to (Auburn) 80 PPG over the whole season. North Carolina scores the third most points in the country at 86.0 PPG. They should not have much trouble scoring here. A key advantage they have over Auburn is rebounding. The Tar Heels outrebound their opponents - on average - by about 10.5 per game. Auburn is at -3.5 rebounds per game. We expect lots of second chance points for the Tar Heels in this one. They just put up 81 against a Washington team that was top 20 in the country in defensive efficiency. We had the Under in that one and it stayed Under with North Carolina holding the Huskies to just 59 points. But Washington is fairly inept offensively, a description that clearly does not apply to Auburn. The Tigers have scored at least 78 points seven times during their 10-game win streak. The Over is 5-0 in their last five games vs. teams that have a win percentage north of .600. That includes 2-0 in the Tournament as they have given up 77 and 75 points. Play OVER Auburn-North Carolina AAA |
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03-29-19 | LSU v. Michigan State UNDER 149.5 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 97 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER LSU-Michigan State This should be a dogfight. LSU has won a couple of close games so far, sticking true to their profile. A 79-74 win over Yale and 69-67 win over Maryland makes it 11 wins this season by five points or less for the Tigers. That doesn't even include a pair of six-point overtime victories in conference play. Michigan State was shaky in Round 1 vs. Bradley (failed to cover), but totally shut down Big 10 rival Minnesota in the round of 32. Sparty won that game 70-50, holding the Golden Gophers to a 30.5% shooting percentage. LSU didn't shoot particularly well in their win over Maryland (36.9%) but was fortunate to hold the Terps to 33.3%. Expect this to be a low-scoring affair. In their last 13 games, MSU has allowed more than 70 points just one time. They are 18-7-1 to the Under when off an ATS victory. The Under is 5-2 in LSU's last seven games overall with both Overs coming against the same team - Florida. The total for both Florida games was lower than it is here. Michigan State won't be shooting 57.1% again here like they did vs. Minnesota. Play UNDER LSU-Michigan State AAA |
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03-27-19 | Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 215 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Indiana-Oklahoma City These two have gone Under the last four times they've faced one another and the Pacers have been going Under with regularity of late. It's an 8-2 Under run for Indiana after turning in a very immpressive performance against Denver Sunday night, holding the Nuggets to just 88 points in a 36-point victory. The Pacers have consistently been one of the league's best defensive teams all season. They have the top scoring defense, allowing 103.9 points per game. They are third in defensive efficiency and right behind them in that department would be tonight's opponent, Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been struggling of late, dropping five of six including an outright loss at Memphis the other night by a score of 115-103. They SHOULD bounce back tonight against a Pacers team playing on the road for the fifth time in the last six games. As impressive as beating Denver was, Indiana had lost four in a row before that - all on the road - and they averaged just 99 points per game in those losses. They definitely miss not having Victor Oladipo, whose season is done because of injury. Play UNDER Indiana-OKC AAA |
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03-26-19 | Sabres v. Senators OVER 6 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* OVER play on Buffalo-Ottawa The Sabres were dealt a 3-1 loss last night in New Jersey, their 12th consecutive loss on the road. It's the club's longest road losing streak in four years and it's played a significant role in the team already being eliminated from playoff contention. Back when they were winning 10 in a row in November, Sabres fans could not have fathomed such an ugly end to this season. But tonight is as good a chance as any to snap this losing streak as the Sabres are in Ottawa. The Senators have the fewest points in the league and have given up the most goals. Still, Buffalo can't be too confident after having given up 26 goals itself the last six games. If there was one thing to "like" about last night's game, it was that the Sabres had 46 shots on goal. So they're still trying. We like their chances to slip plenty of goals past Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson, who has been terrible in two previous starts vs. Buffalo this season (4.05 GAA). Buffalo won 9-2 the last time they faced the Senators. Play OVER Buffalo-Ottawa AAA |
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03-25-19 | Utah Valley v. South Florida OVER 146 | Top | 57-66 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Utah Valley-USF There should be plenty of points scored in this CBI matchup Monday evening. Utah Valley State just scored 91 in their last game (while giving up 84) and they've been pretty prolfic this entire season. The Wolverines average 77.6 points per game overall and have exceeded that average over the last five games. South Florida just gave up 48 points in a half to its previous opponent, Stony Brook, before coming back to win. That was the most points scored by Stony Brook in any half this season. USF wound up getting the three-point win in overtime, thanks to a strong defensive effort after halftime, but strong defensive efforts have been somewhat few and far between with this group. The Bulls two previous opponents both shot better than 54% from the field and Utah Valley is certainly capable of doing the same as they shoot 38.5% from three-point range. USF's last four games have all gone Over as have the last two for Utah Valley. The Over is 7-0 in USF's last seven home games and 6-0 the last six times Utah Valley has taken on a team with a win percentage above .600. Play OVER Utah Valley State-South Florida AAA |
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03-24-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Oregon UNDER 124.5 | Top | 54-73 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon We're guaranteed to have at least one Sweet Sixteen team seeded 12th or lower thanks to this matchup. While it can and will be said that both Oregon and UC Irvine pulled upsets, really, only the latter truly did. Oregon actually opened as a 1-pt favorite for its first round game vs. Wisconsin and for good reason. The Ducks are as hot right now as any team in the country. The 72-54 win and cover over the Badgers was their ninth in a row. As in they're 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games. Seven of those nine victims were held to a field goal percentage of 34.0 or lower. Speaking of defense, that's how UC Irvine pulled the biggest upset in terms of seed (13 over 4), beating Kansas State. The Big West Champs are no slouch and we don't expect Oregon to shoot 54.9% from the floor in this game (like they did vs. Wisconsin). No UC Irvine opponent has shot better than 42.0 percent its last 12 games. We get that it's a low total. But the Under is 12-3 in Oregon's past 15 games. UC Irvine has gone Under in 15 of its last 22 when facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or better. Two good defensive teams go Under. Play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon AAA |
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03-24-19 | Nuggets v. Pacers UNDER 209.5 | Top | 88-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDER on Denver-Indiana Indiana has done a great job at staying Under the total recently with eight of their last nine games going that way. But so has Denver, who is riding a five-game Under streak entering Sunday and 14-1 Under its last 15 games. During a six-game win streak, the Nuggets have allowed an average of just 102 points per game. They should not have much trouble containing a Pacers team that is beginning to really miss not having leading scorer Victor Oladipo. But one thing that Indiana does still have is the league's top scoring defense as they are giving up just 104.2 PPG for the season and that number drops to 100.2 when playing at home. Denver isn't nearly as prolific on offense when they're on the road as they're scoring average dips over seven points per game compared to at home. Due almost exclusively to that drop in scoring, the Under is 23-12 in all Nuggets road games. These teams just played last Saturday, in Denver, and the Nuggets prevailed 102-100. The rematch should be just as low scoring, if not more so due to Denver's decrease in scoring on the road and Indiana's superb defense at home. Play UNDER Denver-Indiana AAA |
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03-24-19 | Washington v. North Carolina UNDER 148.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* UNDER Washington-North Carolina We expect North Carolina to roll in this second round matchup with Washington, but don't go expecting them to hit their season average in points per game. Thanks to a big second half, they did hit 88 in the first round. But that was against a bad defensive team in Iona. Washington is actually very good on the defensive end as it holds its foes to an average of 64.3 points per game. The Huskies really kept Utah State in check Friday night, limiting them to 61 points on 35.2% shooting. But the UW offense will be what ultimately costs the team this game. It's been a 63.4 PPG average the last five games, which includes a pair of sub-50 point efforts against Oregon. UNC is even stronger than Oregon on the defensive end. That the Huskies struggled so much on offense in a weak Pac 12 is a very bad sign for this game. They shot much better than usual against Utah State, which we don't see being the case here. Four of North Carolina's last five games have gone Under with none of those opponents scoring 75 points. The Under is now 4-0 in the Tar Heels' previous four Tournament games. Washington is 6-1 Under its last 7 games following an ATS victory. Play UNDER Washington-North Carolina AAA |
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03-23-19 | Suns v. Kings OVER 231 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Phoenix-Sacramento Despite these being two of the very worst defensive teams in all of basketball, the Kings and Suns have managed to produce a couple of Unders the two times they've met in 2019. A matchup early in the season did go Over, but a much lower number. But oddsmakers don't seem to be fooled by those head to head results, nor are we. Phoenix gives up 116.1 points per game, tied for the most in the Western Conference, while Sacramento isn't too far behind as they allow 114.8. The Suns only scored 98 points in their last game and held Detroit to 42.2% shooting (still lost by 20). That's not indicative of how most of their games go. After scoring 60 points in the first half, they were held to just 38 in the second. Sacramento's last game was also a much better than usual defensive effort as they held Dallas to 100 points on 39.1% shooting. We just can't see this game NOT turning into a "track meet" and that means Over is the call. Play OVER Sacramento-Phoenix AAA |
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03-23-19 | Wofford v. Kentucky UNDER 139 | Top | 56-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Wofford-Kentucky Kentucky turned in one of the more dominant first round performances, beating Abilene Christian 79-44. It was a first half romp as UK raced out to an 18-3 advantage, led 39-13 at the break and it was over from there. This was without P.J. Washington mind you. Not having Washington hardly mattered against a team like Abilene Christian, but could hurt the Wildcats against Wofford. The Terriers used a second half surge to win their game against Seton Hall Thursday, ending the game on a 22-6 run. Being that Kentucky does not make a lot of threes (only made 4 vs. ACU), but will do a better job defending Wofford than Seton Hall did, this game has all the makings of an Under. Kentucky will not be shooting 62% on two-point attempts again like they did Thursday. Similarly, Wofford will not find the same three point success here as they did vs. Seton Hall. The Under is 22-12 in all UK games this season, including 11-3 the last 14. A second game in three days will also lead to a slower pace. Play UNDER Wofford-Kentucky AAA |
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03-23-19 | Maryland v. LSU UNDER 145.5 | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Maryland-LSU The size advantage that both Maryland and LSU enjoyed in their first round victories simply will not be present here. Both teams are big and talented in the frontcourt, so second chance points should be kept to a minimum. LSU is not known as a great defensive team by any means. However, they did just hold Yale to a 37.5 FG%. Maryland isn't going to shoot the lights out here either as when you take them out of College Park, they are hitting at only 42.5% and averaging 65.9 points. But what the Terrapins can do is play outstanding defense. Their opponents are shooting below 40% for the year. Neither team should score as many here as they did in Round 1. The Under is 6-2 in Maryland's previous eight neutral site games. It was an Over vs. Belmont, but that's a team that plays at an ultra-fast pace. LSU doesn't exactly play "slow," but the Under is now 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Play UNDER Maryland-LSU AAA |
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03-22-19 | Nets v. Lakers OVER 230.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Brooklyn-LA LAKERS Points should be plentiful in this late night matchup Friday. Brooklyn is in the midst of a somewhat difficult seven-game road trip as it tries to make the playoffs. The trip did not start well as they lost the first three games. But they won at Sacramento Tuesday night, ironically doing so in spite of a defensive effort that was far worse than what we'd been seeing recently from them. They let the Kings score 121 points on 51.6% shooting. The prior seven Nets games all saw the opponent shoot 43.3% or worse from the field. But on the road trip, they're still giving up almost 116 points per game. The Lakers are obviously a dumpster fire right now and have thrown in the towel. But they still have LeBron James and last we checked, he's still really good. James is averaging 27.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 8.0 assists this season. He sat out the team's 115-101 loss to Milwaukee Tuesday night as his teammates combined to shoot just 38.4%. We expect both teams to score a lot tonight and for this game to go Over the total. Play OVER Brooklyn-LA Lakers AAA |
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03-22-19 | Arizona State v. Buffalo OVER 157 | Top | 74-91 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo We took the Under in Arizona State's game Wednesday, which they won handily. But this time won't be facing an offensively inept team like St. John's, whom they limited to 31.9% shooting. Instead it will be Buffalo, one of the highest scoring teams in the country. The MAC Champion Bulls average 84.9 points per game and when you couple that with the fact ASU averages 77.7, you have the recipe for a high-scoring affair. Yes, we definitely cited the Sun Devils strong field goal percentage defense as a reason to expect Wednesday's game to go Under. But Buffalo should prove too difficult to stop. They play at a very fast tempo as is evident by them topping 80 points in five striaght games. ASU isn't too far behind, scoring at least 74 in its last five games. With ASU coach Bobby Hurley having previously coached at Buffalo, there should be no surprises defensively here. Play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo AAA |
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03-22-19 | Gardner-Webb v. Virginia UNDER 131 | Top | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Gardner-Webb vs. Virginia This is our top Round 1 total. Certainly, the defense of Virginia needs no introduction. The top seeded Cavaliers lead the country in scoring defense (55.1 PPG allowed), giving up 3.5 PPG fewer than the second best team (Michigan). Yes, we're sure you remember last year's epic flameout in the 1st round as the Cavs became the first 1-seed to ever lose to a 16-seed (you knew it would happen eventually). But this team should be on a mission to atone for that sin. Don't look for Gardner-Webb to be anywhere near as successful as UMBC was last year. The Bulldogs have won eight of nine and upset Radford to win the Big South Tourney. But they're severely outclassed here. Virginia did lose its last game, to Florida State in the ACC Semifinals, which becomes important when you consider UVA is 7-2 Under its last nine times following a SU loss. There's a strong chance Gardner-Webb gets held to a season low in points this afternoon. Virginia plays slow and its opponents average less than 20 made field goals per game. On the bright side for Gardner-Webb is the fact Virginia scored only 59 points its last game. Play UNDER Gardner Webb-Virginia AAA |
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03-22-19 | Colgate v. Tennessee UNDER 148.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Colgate-Tennessee Despite having spent significant time ranked #1 in the country, Tennessee still has a sense of skepticism around them. Now they should have no problem beating 15-seed Colgate Friday. But the second-seeded Vols definitely didn't look good in their SEC Final loss to Auburn on Sunday. They went down there by a score of 84-64. It was the 4th straight game giving up 76 points or more. All four games went Over. But even though the Volunteers are facing a team that has won 11 in a row, we'll call for them to turn in their best defensive effort in a while. Colgate's last three games were all Over, but they should expect to find UT a lot tougher to score on than the standard Patriot League fare. The Raiders played only one NCAA Tournament team all season (Syracuse) and they scored just 54 points. The Under is a powerful 20-4 the last 24 times Colgate has faced an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or greater. The Under is a on 19-9 run in Tennessee games when they are off an ATS loss. Play UNDER Colgate-Tennessee AAA |
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03-21-19 | Flyers v. Blackhawks UNDER 7 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Philly-Chicago The Blackhawks have actually gone under in two straight games, which is something that we haven't seen from them in ages. To be precise, the last time it happened was before Thanksgiving! Their Over streak had been the "talk" of bettors in the NHL community as they were a virtually unheard of 24-2-1 to the Over in a 27-game stretch. But that's certainly tapered off with a 3-3-1 mark the last seven games. The tapering off is predictable and will continue tonight when they host the Flyers. Philly had its own streak going for awhile as in an eight-game win streak, but it was all for naught as they're not making the playoffs this year (Chicago probably won't either). The Flyers have scored just three goals in their last two games, one a miraculous 2-1 OT win over Pittsburgh (where they were shutout for the first 59+ minutes of regulation), and the other a 3-1 loss to Montreal. Chicago has scored just two goals in each of its last two games, a shutout of Montreal and one-goal loss to Vancouver. Four of the last five meetings have gone Under including a 4-0 Philly shutout back in November. Look for the Unders to start rolling in now for Chicago. Play UNDER Philadelphia-Chicago AAA |
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03-20-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's UNDER 153.5 | Top | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER St. John's-Arizona State This total just seems too high to us, even though neither team is going to "wow" you defensively. Arizona State has some issues offensively as well. Both members of its starting backcourt are shooting below 41% overall and 33% from three-point land on the season. As a team, the Sun Devils were near the bottom of the Pac 12 in overall field goal percentage. But they make up for that some by allowing opponents to only shoot 41.3%. Their last game, a 79-74 loss to Oregon, would have been a lot lower scoring were it not for overtime. St. John's only scored 54 points the last time it took the floor, shooting 32.8% in an ugly loss to Marquette. For both teams, we usually don't see a total this high. Arizona State has allowed only one of its previous seven opponents to shoot better than 45% and five were held below 42%. Those expecting a shootout tonight should be prepared to be disappointed. Play UNDER Arizona State-St. Johns AAA |
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03-20-19 | Wizards v. Bulls UNDER 233.5 | Top | 120-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-Chicago We're also playing the total on this one. While Washington should be able to put up plenty of points, it's unlikely Chicago will follow suit and thus that should keep the game Under. While they've shot the ball better of late, the Bulls remain the weakest offensive team in the sport. They only average 104.5 points per game at home, which is less than they average on the road. Only three teams average fewer points per game in the entire league. They are also last in efficiency. Though we like the Wizards in this one, it was noted in the analysis for the side that they only scored 95 points - at home - in their last game. It won't take much to win this one. This is an extremely high total, one that won't be reached by either team's "average effort." The Under is 5-0 the last five times Washington has played on exactly one days rest. Play UNDER Wizards-Bulls AAA |
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03-19-19 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 219 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Indiana-LA Clippers The Pacers come off a tough loss last night in Portland as they fell 106-98. The loss prevented Indiana from clinching a playoff spot and it was also their sixth in a row on the road. Things get no easier tonight in LA. Maybe we're starting to see the effect of losing Victor Oladipo as Indiana isn't scoring as many points as they used. Last night marked the third time in the last six games they were held below 100 points. They haven't scored more than 108 in seven straight and only once topped 105 in that stretch of games. The Clippers have had some issues defensively of late and that's cost them at the betting window where they're 0-3 ATS the L3 games. But against an opponent that is playing in the second night of a back to back, we look for LA to turn up the defense tonight. At the same time, Indiana remains the top defensive team in the entire league in terms of scoring as they allow just 103.9 PPG. Play UNDER Indiana-LA Clippers AAA |
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03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings OVER 232 | Top | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Brooklyn-Sacramento We're also playing the Over in this Nets-Kings matchup. As stated in our play on the side, this current road trip has gotten off to bad start for the Nets. They've given up almost 114 PPG in the three losses, but at least they were able to rediscover some offense in the loss to the Clippers Sunday. They scored 116 points in that game and should be right around that number again tonight as Sacramento still gives up about 115 points per game, which is one of the highest figures in the league. But we obviously expect the Kings to score plenty as well. They just scored 129 points in their last game and are averaging 119.5 the last four games. This is a big time revenge game for the Kings, who lost by 29 out in Brooklyn back in January. But what's fascinating about that final result is the Kings actually led 60-55 at halftime. They scored only 34 points total in the second half, something that certainly is unlikely to occur again. Look for the Kings to put two big offensive halves together this time and Brooklyn will score "enough" as well. Play OVER Brooklyn-Sacramento AAA |
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03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple OVER 155 | Top | 81-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Belmont-Temple Belmont can score. The Bruins average 87.4 points per game on nearly 50% shooting. That scoring average is #2 in the entire country, behind only Gonzaga. The shooting percentage is tied for the 4th highest. So expect the OVC's regular season champ to score plenty in this Opening Round matchup vs. Temple. The problem is that the Bruins can't stop anybody. Opponents shot almost 35% from behind the arc in the regular season. They have gone Under in three straight games, but those games all had higher totals than this one. The number here looks a little low for playing a Temple team that has scored at least 70 points in every game since February 13th. Belmont doesn't force many turnovers. Something else to consider - Temple is an outstanding free throw shooting team as is Belmont. Play OVER Belmont-Temple AAA |
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03-19-19 | Bruins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Boston-NY Islanders The Islanders have the division lead in the Metro, but they will certainly be more than tested tonight by Boston, who is the second place team in the Atlantic. Both teams are off one-goal decisions over the weekend. The Bruins beat Columbus 2-1 while New York beat Minnesota 3-2. But perhaps the most interesting part of this battle is that it pits two of the top three teams in the league in goals allowed against one another. The Islanders lead the league with an average of just 2.33 goals allowed per game. But the Bruins are right behind, allowing just 2.53. So expecting this to be a low-scoring game sounds quite reasonable. In the last four games, the Islanders have only given up five goals. All four games finished Under. Boston is 10-4 Under this year playing on the road when the total is 5.5. They are also 23-12 Under when facing a team that has a winning record. Play UNDER Boston-NY Islanders AAA |
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03-18-19 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 224 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Golden State-San Antonio San Antonio has won nine in a row, but will be hosting Golden State tonight on ESPN. The Spurs win streak makes this quite the marquee matchup. We actually give them a slight edge given their incredible 13-0 ATS record this season when playing at home with revenge for a loss where they surrendered 110 or more points. The Warriors killed the Spurs last month, winning 141-102 out in Oakland. Don't see the Warriors coming close to that number tonight. Also, Under has been the way to go with both of these teams lately. Eight of the Spurs last nine games have stayed Under, including one we played, Saturday's night's win over Portland. Golden State is 7-0 Under its last seven games. They just held OKC to 88 points in a tremendous defensive effort. This will be a low-scoring affair in our eyes as the Under is 4-1 the past five meetings here in San Antonio. Play UNDER Golden State-San Antonio AAA |
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03-18-19 | Jazz v. Wizards OVER 228 | Top | 116-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Utah-Washington Also playing the total of this one. Given Washington's last game ended up having a final score of 135-128, it should be fairly obvious which way we'll be going. Yes, Utah is a very good defensive team. But so is Memphis, who the Wizards just scored 135 points against. The Grizzlies, believe it or not, actually came into that game leading the league in scoring defense. So while they may not put up as many points tonight, the Wiz should certainly be able to score plenty. So should Utah, who we have winning this game comfortably. The Jazz have scored at least 114 points in three straight games, all of those being games where they both won and covered. All three games actually went Under too, thanks to the Jazz allowing 97, 100 and 98 points. Washington will definitely score more than that tonight, but will also give up their fair share too. In seven of the last eight games, the Wizards have allowed 112 or more points. Play OVER Utah-Washington AAA |
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03-17-19 | Flyers v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Philly-Pittsburgh Look for this to be a wild and high-scoring affair. We've reached the point where every team basically has just games left to play and the Penguins have to be feeling a lot better about their playoff prospects while the Flyers should be feeling worse about theirs. Pittsburgh did lose Saturday afternoon, 5-1 to St. Louis. But despite the home loss, they are still third in the Metro (87 points) and are seven clear of ninth place Montreal. Philly is now eight points out of the Wild Card race after dropping back to back games. They allowed a combined 12 goals to Washington and Toronto. We had the Over in the game vs. the Leafs, which was a 7-6 loss. Should be a similar game tonight as this will be the third straight top seven offense the Flyers have had to face. Before yesterday's loss, the Penguins had scored 14 goals in three games, all wins. The Flyers haven't seen many Unders since the All Star Break as the Over is 9-2-1 their past 12 games. Again, they scored six goals in their last game and the Pens just gave up five yesterday. Play OVER Philadelphia-Pittsburgh AAA |
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03-16-19 | Blazers v. Spurs UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on UNDER Blazers-Spurs Both teams played last night. Both games went Under the total. Portland won theirs 122-110 (yes that was an Under) as they beat New Orleans, who didn't have Anthony Davis. San Antonio had no problem either, beating the Knicks 109-83. For the Spurs, it was the seventh Under in the last eight games. Portland has gone Under in two straight after five consecutive Overs. The Blazers have scored more than 120 points in four straight, but that streak figures to end this evening in the Alamo. The Over has cashed in 23 of the previous 31 meetings, including all three this season. But that changes tonight with both in the second game of a back to back. Portland is 7-2 Under in this situation this season. Play UNDER Blazers-Spurs AAA |
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03-16-19 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 7 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Capitals-Lightning We know it might be a little scary to bet the Under on these teams, let alone when they're playing one another, but the total is too high for such an important late season matchup. Tampa Bay has been coasting towards another Atlantic Division title for awhile now and barring something unforeseen, they will be the top overall seed in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Washington is trying to win the Metropolitan, which is a much tighter race. They lead going into Saturday, but by only two points over the Islanders and four over the Penguins. The Caps allowed five goals in a loss to Pittsburgh before scoring five in a win over the Flyers this week. Tampa Bay has scored 11 goals its last two games. But despite these gaudy numbers, we're still going Under in the first meeting between these teams since last year's Eastern Conference Final. Only one of the seven games in that series saw more than six goals scored. Washington is 15-8 this season following a win by two or more goals. Tampa Bay is giving up only 2.4 goals per game on home ice. Play UNDER Washington-Tampa Bay AAA |
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03-15-19 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 229 | Top | 121-128 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Bulls-Clippers Too high of a total for a game involving the Bulls, who rank last in the league in offensive efficiency and are averaging only 105 points per game. Obviously, it's quite possible the Clippers could "go off" tonight. But will they? We think not. They only scored 104 points in their last game, which was a blowout loss to Portland. Also, were this game to get out of hand, it's very likely that scoring would grind to a halt from LA's perspective. The Under is 4-0 the last four times the Clippers have taken the court off a double digit loss at home. Chicago hasn't scored more than 108 points in any of its last five games. Opponents field goal percentage has been a concern of late, but we project them as being better on the defensive end tonight. Play UNDER Chicago-LA Clippers AAA |
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03-15-19 | Flyers v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Philly-Toronto This promises to be a high-scoring game. Both teams gave up five goals in their last game. In the case of Toronto, they allowed four in the first period, the first time they've done that at home since 2008. I was on Chicago, so that was a pretty sweet winner even though it got a little interesting late in the game. (The Maple Leafs ended up battling back with four goals of their own). Philly was never really in their game last night vs. Washington, which ended up being a 5-2 loss. Seven of the last nine Flyers games have gone Over the total. It's eight of 10 for Toronto, who has let in 11 goals in just the last two games. The Maple Leafs average 3.6 goals per game at home to begin with and put up six the only other time they hosted Philly this season. Both teams should score at least three times tonight. Play OVER Philadelphia-Toronto AAA |
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03-14-19 | Canadiens v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Montreal-NY Islanders The Habs and Islanders, especially the Islanders, are two of the biggest surprise teams in the league this year. Few thought either would be playoff bound coming into the season, let alone the possibility of both making it. Both are coming off wins and between them, they allowed just one goal. The Islanders shutout Columbus 2-0 and are in second place in the Metropolitan with 87 points. Montreal beat Detroit 3-1 to move into a tie with Columbus for the final Wild Card spot. So this is a big game. The Islanders lead the league in goals allowed with only 168. That's 12 fewer than every other team but one (Dallas). Montreal is middle of the pack in goals scored and goals allowed (14th in both categories), but ranks dead last on the power play, which is a problem. Because they rank only 20th in goals per game, NY is one of the top Under teams in the league. The Canadiens will have Carey Price in goal tonight and he has solid career numbers vs. the Islanders. This should be a very low-scoring game. Play UNDER Montreal-NY Islanders AAA |
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03-14-19 | Thunder v. Pacers UNDER 222 | Top | 106-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER OKC-INDIANA These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. Both are top five in efficiency. Indiana is #2 in scoring, giving up just 103.9 points per game. Oklahoma City held Brooklyn under 100 points last evening, a crucial win for them. Coupled with Houston's loss to Golden State, the Thunder have moved back into a third place tie with the Rockets out West. In the East, the Pacers are trying to track down the three seed themselves. Expect a competitive game tonight and not many points scored. It wasn't just last night that OKC turned up the heat defensively. As already noted, this is a top five team in defensive efficiency. Before holding Brooklyn to 96 points last night, they held Utah to just 89 the game before that. They've gone Under in three straight. Indiana has either allowed or scored less than 100 in four straight, all Unders as well. The Under is 8-2 in Oklahoma CIty's last 10 games overall. Indiana is the #2 Under team in the league right now, trailing only Memphis. Play UNDER Oklahoma City-Indiana AAA |
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03-12-19 | Arkansas State v. South Alabama UNDER 142 | Top | 67-75 | Push | 0 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Arkansas State-South Alabama We probably shouldn't be expecting very much from either Arkansas State or South Alabama in the Sun Belt Tournament, but one of them is going to advance to tomorrow's quarterfinals. Playing at home, South Alabama is rightfully favored to move on, but this isn't a game where you'd want to play the pointspread. The two regular season meetings were both low scoring games with the home team winning both times - by scores of 66-65 and 70-62. We don't see any reason why more points should be expected in the rubber match, let alone a double digit increase in scoring. While Arkansas State did just give up 90 points to Coastal Carolina on Saturday, that game went to overtime. South Alabama is allowing an average of just 68.7 PPG at home this season. The Under is 7-0 in the Jaguars' previous seven Tuesday games, for whatever that's worth. Play UNDER Arkansas State-South Alabama AAA |
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03-12-19 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Cavs-76ers The Cavs turned in a real stunner last night as they beat the Raptors 126-101. But that was in Cleveland. Tonight they travel to Philly to face a Sixers team that is not only very good at home, but also has gone Under in seven straight contests. In their last game, which was at home, Philly gave up only 89 points. Even though they just scored 126 points, Cleveland is not a real offensive threat. They are last in the Eastern Conference in points per game. Now defensively, there are concerns with this Cavaliers team. In their previous road game, they let the Heat shoot 57% and scored 126 points. But the Sixers have been held to an average of just 107 points their last three contests and have shot poorly in each of last two. Joel Embiid is back and did have 33 points in his return Sunday. But no one else could really make a shot. Look for the Sixers' Under streak to continue. Play UNDER Cleveland-Philadelphia AAA |
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03-11-19 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 227 | Top | 98-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDER play on Thunder-Jazz The last time we saw these two matchup, it was a wild affair that went into double overtime. The Thunder won 148-147, which was the third time they've beaten the Jazz this year in as many chances. Two of the three games have been pretty high scoring, but not the one that was played here in Utah. That was a 107-106 final score and we think tonight's game follow a similar trajectory as you've got two teams in the top five of the league in defensive efficiency. OKC is 6-2 Under its last eight games and one of the two Overs was an overtime win at Portland. The Jazz just got held to 104 points by Memphis here at home in their last game. That was an Over because the total was low. It was also just the second time in six games Utah went Over. The total is substantially higher for this game and the Thunder are 12-3 Under in games where they are the underdog this season. Play UNDER Oklahoma City-Utah AAA |
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03-11-19 | Coyotes v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Arizona-Chicago We finally saw a Blackhawks game go Under the total as they beat Dallas 2-1 on Saturday. The Under on that game was our *10* NHL Total of the Month. We went Under even though Chicago was 22-1-1 Over its previous 24 games! Such a streak is uncommon (for any sport) and suffice to say we'll consistently be getting high totals on every Blackhawks game for awhile now, which makes taking the Under seem like a logical move. Now Dallas was an ideal opponent for that Over streak to come to a halt. But Arizona has a similar "makeup." The Coyotes are 28th in the league in scoring, but also tied for 6th in goals allowed. They have not given up more than three goals in nine straight games and they've allowed just eight total in the past five games. Arizona is the only team in the league besides Dallas that is scoring and allowing less than 2.75 goals per game. Chicago is still last in the league in goals allowed, but that figures to change now that Corey Crawford has returning from a lengthy absence (due to a concussion). Crawford stopped 26 of 27 shots vs. the Stars. The only other time these teams met this year, the final score was 4-1 (Arizona won). Play UNDER Arizona-Chicago AAA |
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03-10-19 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 223 | Top | 94-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Rockets-Mavs Houston avoided a major scare with X-rays coming back negative on James Harden's wrist. The NBA's leading scorer (36.6 PPG) injured that wrist in Friday's win over the 76ers. Harden will play today, but will he be as effective as usual? Perhaps not. The Rockets are playing well right now. They have the longest active win streak in the league at seven straight. Back to back strong defensive efforts have really helped as they held Toronto to 95 points and Philly to 91. After holding those teams in check, stopping Dallas shouldn't be too tall an order. The Mavericks have lost 9 of 10. But they are more formidable at home where their SU record for the year is 21-11. So expect this to be a tougher game than expected for the Rockets, especially with Harden playing with the injured wrist. It should be a pretty low scoring game too, which is where we're willing to put our money. Six of Houston's last eight games have gone Under anyway. They are only shooting 43.2% in division games this season. Dallas had two sub-90 point efforts recently. In the last seven meetings vs. Houston, the Mavs have scored more than 107 points just once. Play UNDER Houston-Dallas AAA |
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03-10-19 | Illinois v. Penn State OVER 149 | Top | 56-72 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Illinois/Penn State Penn State is a team that lost its first nine conference games, but that was a gross misrepresentation of where the Nittany Lions were really at. They've since won six of nine in the Big 10, also going 8-0-1 ATS. The push came earlier this week in a one-point victory over Rutgers, a game where they led by 18 at halftime. In the final home game of the year, Penn State hosts an Illinois team that's had more lows than highs in 2019. The Illini have dropped four of their last five, having just given up 92 points in a loss to Indiana on Thursday. Expect plenty of points here as well. Over the last four games, the Illini are allowing an average of 81 PPG. Opponents are shooting almost 50% against them for the year, when they're on the road, including 37.5% from three-point range. Penn State actually allows a slightly higher three-point shooting percentage here at home. That's a big reason why the Over is 4-0 the last four games at State College. The Over is also 6-2 in Penn State's last eight Big 10 games. Play OVER Illinois-Penn State AAA |
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03-10-19 | Rutgers v. Indiana UNDER 133.5 | Top | 73-89 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Rutgers-Indiana You may be surprised to learn that Rutgers is a pretty good team at the defensive end of the floor, ranking 36th nationally in defensive efficiency. Indiana ranks even higher at 27th. Each team's offensive efficiency rating is much lower with Rutgers being at 150. So even though IU just dropped 92 on the road in its last game, our expectations are for a pretty low scoring game today in Bloomington. Outside of a game against Iowa (who is maybe the Big 10's worst defensive team), Rutgers has not gone over 70 points in any of its last six games. Indiana's had some real "stinkers" on offense too, particularly at home where they've scored 63 points or less three times in the last four games. These teams met back in January and the final score was 66-58 Rutgers. I don't think the rematch will be much more high scoring and that means the Under is in play here. The Hoosiers shot better than 55% in their last game, a number they won't match here. Nor will they allow 50% shooting to Rutgers, a number their last two opponents have both reached. Play UNDER Rutgers-Indiana AAA |
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03-10-19 | Houston v. Cincinnati UNDER 129 | Top | 85-69 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati This figures to be a bit of a "rock fight" with the two top teams in the American facing off to determine who gets the regular season title. Houston has been in front most of the year, but did suffer a home loss to UCF last Saturday. They bounced back by beating SMU 90-79. Cincinnati was even with UH at two conference losses going into Thursday, but then they too lost to UCF, 58-55. The Bearcats have two streaks going on heading into today's regular season finale. They have lost seven straight ATS and the Under is 5-0 the L5 games. Of the two streaks, we believe the latter is more likely to continue here. Houston is a top 20 defensive team in the country, just like Cincinnati is. These teams played last month and the final score was 66-58 in favor of UH. The Cougars have gone Under in five of their last seven games, the only exceptions being a couple of 90+ point efforts against conference weaklings. They won't get anywhere close to that many points today in what figures to be another slugfest with so much on the line. Play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati AAA |
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03-09-19 | Blackhawks v. Stars UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Chicago-Dallas The streak that the Blackhawks are on is something that we're not sure we have ever seen. The Over is 22-1-1 in the team's past 24 games! The one Under took place back on January 22nd, against the Islanders, which was the final game before the All Star Break! Since then it's been 15 Overs and one push. That one push came last Sunday vs. San Jose, a 5-2 loss as oddsmakers have started to adjust with 7.0 goal totals. It still didn't matter Thursday when they beat Buffalo 5-4, but it should here as they face a Dallas team that has delivered consecutive shutout victories and has allowed the third fewest goals in the league this season. Also, the Stars rank 29th in goals scored per game (third worst). So if there was ever an opponent to halt the Blackhawks' Over streak, it would be this one. The Under has cashed in roughly two-thirds of Dallas' games this year. Both games vs. Chicago did go Over, but this one won't as the Blackhawks will go Under for the 1st time since All Star Weekend! Play UNDER Chicago-Dallas AAA |
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03-09-19 | Nets v. Hawks OVER 235 | Top | 114-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Brooklyn-Atlanta The scoreboard operator best pay attention in this one because plenty of points are set to be scored as the Nets take on the Hawks in Atlanta. Each team comes in well rested, having been off the last two days. Brooklyn has seen each of its last three games stay Under, but one of them saw them score 127 points (while holding Dallas to 88). There was also another game where they only scored 88 points. Such a point total simply isn't going to happen here for either side. Atlanta had gone Over in four straight before running into San Antonio Wednesday night and losing 111-104. The Nets have beaten the Hawks four straight, including a pair of game this season where they've averaged 130 points. The Over is 10-4 in Brooklyn's last 14 games. This might seem like a ridiculously high total to try and go Over, but it's that high for a reason. Play OVER Brooklyn-Atlanta AAA |
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03-08-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 233 | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Denver-Golden State It's a Western Conference showdown between the top two teams and each has something to prove. The last time these teams played, Denver lost by 31 at home. Golden State has not played well recently, losing three of four and they've been even worse ATS at 1-10 the last 11 games. Also of interest is that Denver comes into tonight riding a seven-game Under streak. The Warriors are 5-1 Under in their last six games. We typically associate these teams with high-scoring games and for good reason. Golden State remains the top offensive force in the league while Denver isn't too far behind. Considering how many points these teams combined for the last time they played (253), going Over here seems like the right call. Play OVER Denver-Golden State AAA |
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03-07-19 | Blues v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on UNDER Blues-Kings The Blues needed five goals to get by Anaheim last night, but shouldn't need nearly that many to get the win tonight in Los Angeles. The Kings have been downright brutal of late, losing 10 of their last 11 games, and they rank second from the bottom league-wide in number of goals scored. Anaheim is the only team that's scored fewer and, yes, the Blues just gave up four goals to them yesterday. But even without rest, this shapes up to be an easier defensive assignment for the Blues, who are 6-3 Under this season when playing in the second night of back to back games. The Under is 7-3-1 in St. Louis' last 11 games overall and we can't envision a second straight high scoring game vs. what is typically a low-scoring opponent. Look for the Blues to get back on track defensively here and they won't be scoring nearly as much as they did last night. Play UNDER St. Louis-Los Angeles AAA |
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03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 221.5 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Pacers-Bucks In the league's defensive efficiency ratings, these are the two top teams, which helps explain why both have been so successful this season. Of course, Milwaukee is also quite prolfic at the offensive end as well, leading the Eastern Conference in points per game at 117.3. But Indiana tops the NBA in scoring defense (103.7 PPG allowed) and thus should keep Giannis and co. in relative check. The previous two times these teams played, the games both stayed Under. The total here is higher than either of those games. The Bucks have lost two in a row for the first time all season, so we suspect they'll be looking to turn up the defensive intensity tonight. Both losses saw them blow leads of 16 points or more. The Pacers don't have leading scorer Victor Oladipo anymore and backup forward Domantas Sabonis is also out. We just won with the Under in Indiana's last game as they held Chicago to only 95 points. Conference games have seen both teams go Under with great regularity of late. Milwaukee is 5-0 Under its last five conference games while Indiana is 10-3 its last 13. Play UNDER Indiana-Milwaukee AAA |
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03-05-19 | Panthers v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -138 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play OVER Panthers-Penguins We see a high scoring game transpiring tonight in Pittsburgh. Florida comes to the Steel City on a four-game losing streak. They've given up 17 goals in those four losses. The last game was "only" a 3-2 loss, but to Ottawa, who is very bad. Before that, the Over was 7-0-1 in the Panthers last eight games. Pittsburgh is one of the highest scoring teams in the league and won't have much difficulty scoring tonight. They lit the lamp five times in a key win over Montreal Saturday. But that was after giving up four goals in three of their previous four games. Since February 17th, Florida has scored 36 goals in nine games and that loss to Ottawa was the only time they didn't score at least three. The Penguins have scored at least three goals in 10 of their last 11 games. Over is 16-9 when the Pens scored four or more times in their last game. Play OVER Panthers-Penguins AAA |
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03-05-19 | Bulls v. Pacers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Bulls-Pacers It's not that surprising that Chicago is near the bottom of the league in most key offensive categories. After all, they have one of the worst records in the league. Only two teams average fewer points per game and that's even after the Bulls wild 168-161 win over Atlanta that went four overtimes last Friday. They scored 118 more points in a rematch with the Hawks Sunday, at home, but this time lost by five points. Do not look for them to score anywhere near those kind of numbers tonight as they face one of the better defensive teams in the league. While Indiana still ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, they are without their leading scorer (Victor Oladipo) and have topped 112 points just twice in the last seven games. This looks like a pretty clear Under to me as the last time these teams met, the total was set at just 201 points. Play UNDER Bulls-Pacers AAA |
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03-03-19 | Knicks v. Clippers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 107-128 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER KNICKS-CLIPPERS The Knicks are very bad, but you already knew this. While they have won three of five, that comes on the heels of a franchise-worst 18-game slide and they have the worst overall record in the league (13-49 SU). Thursday night may have been a new low as the Knicks gave up a 40-point fourth quarter (at home!) and lost to Cleveland, blowing all of a 14-point lead. We don't expect them to be competitive this afternoon in LA. But the game should be pretty low-scoring, at least when compared to today's total. This will be just the third home game for the Clippers since the beginning of February. They won each of the last two, beating Phoenix by 27 and Dallas by 9. But it's been some ugly shooting of late with just one of the last four games producing a field goal percentage above 43.5. The Knicks aren't apt to shoot the ball well either, so we don't see how this one could go Over a total that's so high. Play UNDER Knicks-Clippers AAA |
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03-01-19 | Bucks v. Lakers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 131-120 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Bucks-Lakers The Lakers finally won a game as they beat Anthony Davis and the Pelicans Wednesday night by a score of 125-119. But LeBron and company are by no means out of the woods yet as they are still three games out of the top eight in the Western Conference and tonight they have to face Milwaukee. The Bucks have won six straight and 12 of 13 to improve the league's best overall record to 47-14. They come off a 141-140 win at Sacramento two nights ago, a final score which clearly has influenced the total for tonight. But the Under is 21-9 in Lakers home games this season and I don't see this one going Over. The number is just too high. The Bucks are 5-2 Under in the last seven games and 18-13 Under on the road. After scoring 130+ points, they are 7-3 Under in the next game. Bucks' opponents are only shooting 43.1% this season, which is easily the lowest figure in the league. Play UNDER Lakers-Bucks AAA |
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03-01-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Avs-Sharks This has all the makings of a wild, high-scoring game. San Jose is third in the league in goals per game and predictably increases its scoring average when playing at home. They are 19-5-5 at The Tank. But there is an issue and it's along the blue line with defenseman Erik Karlsson leaving Tuesday's game after re-injuring his groin. The Sharks gave up four goals in that game and Karlsson is out indefinitely as that same groin injury caused him to miss 10 games over the last two months. This is problematic going against a Colorado team that appears to have rediscovered its scoring touch with 23 goals scored in the last five games. The last time the Sharks and Avs played, the former won 5-4 in Denver. Four of the last five meetings have gone Over. Colorado has scored more goals on the road this season than they have at home. Play OVER Colorado-San Jose AAA |
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03-01-19 | Hornets v. Nets UNDER 228 | Top | 123-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Hornets-Nets Brooklyn got surprisingly torched by Washington Wednesday night as they gave up 125 points. While that was going on, Charlotte was blowing a double digit second half lead and lost to Houston. With two playoff hopefuls coming off home losses, this game takes on a real importance. So I wouldn't look for a shootout. Before the upset loss to the Wizards, the Nets had held San Antonio to just 85 points in an impressive win. So giving up 40 more to an also-ran the next game was not expected. The good news here is Charlotte isn't good on the road where they only average 108.4 PPG. The Hornets haven't played on the road since before the All Star Break. Their final four games before the Break were all on the road and they went 1-3, scoring 93 pts or less in the three losses. So I don't expect them to do well offensively tonight and also key is the Hornets' 8-0 Under record when playing with revenge for a home loss. Last Friday, they lost at home to Brooklyn 117-115. This rematch will be a lower-scoring game. Play UNDER Charlotte-Brooklyn AAA |
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02-27-19 | Pacers v. Mavs UNDER 216 | Top | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Pacers-Mavs Indiana is a top defensive team in this league, but of course they're carrying on without their top scorer (Victor Oladipo) the rest of the way. So I'd expect them to be a strong Under play more often that not and tonight is one of those times. Now all three of their games since the All Star Break have gone Over. I actually just played against them on Monday when they suffered a four-point loss in Detroit. Tonight though, they are playing a Dallas team mired in a five-game slump where they haven't won nor covered even once. Last month when these teams met in Indiana, it was a 111-99 Pacers victory that stayed Under the total. A similar result would not surprise me, although this time the Mavs probably keep it closer. Partly because Dallas is a much better defensive team at home. The Mavs are 16-7 Under when facing an Eastern Conference opponent this year. Play UNDER Indiana-Dallas AAA |
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02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 226 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Toronto Eastern Conference heavyweights collide North of the Border with both teams looking to bounce back from bad losses. Boston lost in Chicago Saturday while Toronto was upset by Orlando Sunday afternoon. The Celtics hold the edge in the season series, winning 2 of 3, but the home team is a perfect 3-0. Looking at the total, it just seems too high. Boston was held to only 97 points in a loss to Milwaukee last Thursday. There was no excuse for the poor defensive effort against the Bulls, but regardless I expect them to be better at that end of the floor this evening. Toronto was also just held under 100 pts in its last game. This figures to take on more of a "playoff-like" intensity, so a high-scoring affair seems unlikely. Both teams sport a top six defensive efficiency rating. It's been all Overs in the three previous head to head games this season, but this one will be different as it figures to be a pretty fierce battle. The Under is 8-3 in Toronto's last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record and 7-1 in Boston's previous eight road games. Play UNDER Boston-Toronto AAA |
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02-25-19 | Northern Colorado v. Montana OVER 142 | Top | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana I don't think that the end of Northern Colorado's 9-game Under streak made many headlines over the weekend, but it did end. The Bears lost an overtime game to Eastern Washington, 88-78. Let it be known though that the game would have gone Over even without OT - by double digits. It's not as if Northern Colorado is a poor offensive team. They average 77.2 points per game. That Under streak was more a byproduct of them playing bad Big Sky teams in games with pretty high totals. Here they face the Big Sky's best offensive - and overall - team in Montana. This is a pretty important game between the conference's 1st and 2nd place teams. Northern Colorado is two games back and was beaten badly - 88-64 - by Montana in the first meeting. That was at home too. Montana averages 80.0 PPG in Missoula and has scored at least 83 points in five out of its last six games (Over is 5-1). The Grizzlies are an excellent shooting team and the last five meetings with Northern Colorado have all gone Over. Tonight's total is actually lower than it was for the first meeting, which seems like a mistake by the oddsmakers. Play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana AAA |
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02-24-19 | Blues v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Blues-Wild Anyone thinking that St. Louis was apt to slide after having a franchise 11-game win streak broken best think again. The Blues did lose in Dallas Thursday, snapping that 11-game win streak. But they bounced right back with a 2-1 win over Boston last night. Other than that loss to Dallas, scoring on the Blues has been difficult. Three shutouts in the last 10 days alone, then they gave up just the one goal last night. Minnesota is a team that's gone Under in four straight. So this figures to be a low-scoring game. Two of those last four games for the Wild have seen them get shutout. Yes, one was against the Blues, a 4-0 loss. When playing at home and the total is 5.5, Minnesota is 11-3 Under this season. They're also 4-0 Under in Sunday games. Play UNDER St. Louis-Minnesota AAA |
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02-24-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 233 | Top | 96-123 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Clippers-Nuggets Look for "sparks" to fly in this Sunday afternoon matchup as the Nuggets play host to the Clippers. What I mean by that is that you should expect plenty of points here. Obviously, Denver can score. Especially at home where they average an impressive 116.1 PPG. That scoring average is a real key as to why they have gone 25-4 SU in all home games this season. The Clippers are no slouch offensively either as they average 114.2 PPG overall. Both teams hit right around those respective scoring averages in their first games after the All Star Break. LA has gone Over in four straight with three of those games having totals in a similar high range like this one. The last time these teams played, the game did stay Under but that was largely due to the Clippers having an off night across the board, including 25% from three-point range and missing 8 of 26 foul shots. Still the game almost went Over. The Clippers are 6-2 Over this year in road games with a total of 230 points or higher. Denver has gone Over in six of its last seven games against opponents with winning records. Play OVER LA Clippers-Denver AAA |
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02-22-19 | Niagara v. Rider UNDER 156.5 | Top | 81-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDER Niagara-Rider Back on January 13th, Rider beat Niagara 104-84. That was the game before the Broncs apparenty decided to bankrupt its fanbase. Since that win, which was not surprisingly their best offensive effort of the year, Rider is an unsightly 1-10 at the betting window (ATS) and even more problematic is that they've fallen from 5-0 SU in the conference to just 9-6. But they did win both of their games last week, even covering the spread in one of them. For this rematch with Niagara, I don't see Rider shooting anywhere close to as well as they did in the first meeting (they were 61%). Fortunately for the Broncs, they defend well at home, which will counteract any offensive decline. For the season, they are allowing just 65.2 points per game. That's almost 10 PPG less than their overall season average. So an Under seems to be in order for tonight as Niagara isn't any kind of "great shakes" offensively, plus they're already 10-2 Under in road games. The total is just too high here. Play UNDER Niagara-Rider AAA |
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02-21-19 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 219 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER MIAMI-PHILLY As for the total, this should be a high scoring game. The Heat are obviously stronger on offense now with Dragic and Jones back. An interesting note about Miami is they have a better record on the road than at home. That tidbit applies to our side play, but also here as even with Dragic missing all that time, the Heat still score more on the road than they do at home (slightly). Philly scores a lot more at home (119.1 PPG) than on the road, so even without Embiid, they figure to finish with a decent number tonight. It won't be enough to cover the spread, but it will still be a decent number. The Sixers haven't scored fewer than 106 points in any game since the new year. Play OVER MIAMI-PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-21-19 | Suns v. Cavs UNDER 218.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER SUNS-CAVS What a game this is. I'm being facetious, of course. Phoenix is the worst team in the Western Conference. Cleveland would be the worst team in the Eastern Conference if not for the Knicks. Look for an ugly game. Defensively, are these teams any good? Obviously not. But they're not good offensively either. The Cavs average only 103.0 PPG, which is last in the East and second worst in the whole league. Phoenix isn't much better at 105.9 PPG. That's 2nd worst in the West and they don't have TJ Warren (one of their top two scorers). When you look at the Cavs last game, a 148-139 loss to Brooklyn, note that it was a triple overtime game. It was 109-109 at the end of regulation. Before that, they had not topped 107 points in five games. The Suns haven't topped 107 in the last four games. Play UNDER PHOENIX-CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-21-19 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER CAPS-LEAFS In what has been an incredible O/U run for us, we've generally been targeting Overs in games with high totals like this one. It worked out yesterday as the Blackhawks and Red Wings combined for nine goals. Expect something similar here from Washington and Toronto. Neither team is any stranger to scoring goals. Washington averages 3.4/game while Toronto is slightly better at 3.5. Granted, the Maple Leafs had some struggling scoring in their last two games, which you might want to pin on the fact they were playing on the road. But the two games before that, also on the road, saw them score 11 times. I don't see them having any trouble scoring tonight as they've faced Washington twice before and scored 10 goals in those two games. The Capitals are 14-7 Over in revenge spots in 2018-19 and 5-1 Over when coming off three or more consecutive road games. Play OVER Washington-Toronto AAA |
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02-20-19 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 166.5 | Top | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER in UNC-DUKE The sport's greatest rivalry is renewed tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium. This is a big line for a battle of top eight teams, but Duke is #1 and the line does look to be about right. The total is also very high, also not surprising considering both teams topped 90 points the last time we saw them. But in a game where they're facing an opponent of roughly the same caliber, I can't see this being that high scoring. Both teams will score plenty. But Duke is holding teams to an average of 62.7 points per game at home and has a top five national defensive efficiency rating. The Under is a surprising 17-7 in all of their games and 17-5 when they are the favorite. They are also 14-3 Under after scoring more than 80 points their last game. UNC is 7-3 Under on the road and 8-4 Under in conference play. They have also gone Under 17 of the last 23 games with a total of 160 to 169.5 points. Play UNDER UNC-DUKE AAA |
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02-20-19 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Chicago-Detroit The Blackhawks have seen the Over hit in nine straight games now and the last one was the highest scoring yet as they beat Ottawa 8-7. That was a matchup of the two teams that have given up the most goals in the league. Here, Chicago will face a Detroit team that isn't quite as inept as Ottawa defensively, but is still bottom tier. So while we may not see another game with 15 goals scored, an Over is still a strong likelihood. During this nine-game Over stretch, Chicago has scored four or more goals itself seven times. They've scored at least five goals themselves six times. Detroit just got done playing a home and home against Philadelphia. They lost both games, one of them a 6-5 final. One positive for the Red Wings is that they are getting plenty of shots on goal of late. They've averaged 35.4 shots on goal the last five games. Not only have the last nine Chicago games gone Over the total, so too have 16 of the last 18. Add another to the list. Play OVER Chicago-Detroit AAA |
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02-18-19 | Lightning v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -127 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* OVER play on Lightning-Blue Jackets We took the Over on Columbus' last game, which ended up being a 5-2 win for them and us. That game was against a Chicago team that is tied for having allowed the most goals in the league. It's a much different opponent Monday, but we should still anticipate a high scoring affair. That's because the Blue Jackets are now facing a Lightning team that leads the league in scoring. It's almost undisputed that Tampa Bay is the best team in the league right now and they come into Monday hot, on the heels of five consecutive victories. They've won the last two in shutout fashion, 6-0 and 3-0. But even though Columbus was shutout in their last home game (3-0 by the Islanders), I wouldn't look for such a fate to await them tonight. Over the L6 games, the Blue Jackets have scored at least three goals five times. So call that shutout loss an outlier. As for TB, well, they had scored five or more goals in four straight games before "only" scoring three against Montreal Saturday. In two previous games vs. Columbus this year, the Lightning have scored 8 and 4 goals. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Columbus. AAA |
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02-17-19 | Rangers v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on the OVER in Rangers-Penguins The Rangers just turned in one of their better efforts of the year, scoring six times in an easy win at Buffalo Friday night. Though they continue to struggle, New York has now found the back of the net at least three times in seven of the last eight games. Four times during that same stretch, they've scored four or more goals in a game. This afternoon, they go up against a Pittsburgh side that rarely has any issues scoring. The Penguins have totaled 14 goals in the last four games alone and are a top five team in the league in goals per game. But they did lose yesterday, by a score of 5-4 here at home to the Calgary Flames. It was the second time in the last four games the Pens lost by a score of 5-4. Since the start of last season, these teams have met five times and all five games have gone Over the total. There has been a minimum of seven goals scored in all five games with the last matchup being a 7-2 final in Pittsburgh's favor. Given the amount of scoring we've seen from the two sides lately, another Over certainly seems to be in the cards. Play OVER Rangers-Penguins AAA |
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02-16-19 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* OVER play on Blue Jackets-Blackhawks We're switching courses here with Columbus as you may recall we played the Under in the Blue Jackets last game. That resulted in a 3-0 loss to the Islanders, but it's a very different opponent they are matched up with on Saturday. Whereas the Islanders are 1st in the league in goals allowed, Chicago is 30th. Helping matters further is the fact the Blackhawks scored five goals of their own in their most recent game. That was against New Jersey Thursday, here in the Windy City. Going back to before the All Star Break, the Blackhawks have really turned things around by winning eight out of their last nine games. They're still a last place team mind you, but they are scoring in bunches and the last seven games have all gone Over the total. Chicago has scored at least three goals in 15 consecutive games! Columbus is a top 10 team in scoring and should have little difficulty finding the back of the net here. After being involved in two straight shutouts (1 W, 1 L), this should be a more competitive high scoring affair. The last time Columbus was shutout, they came back and won 4-3 their next game. Play OVER Columbus-Chicago AAA |
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02-14-19 | Islanders v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* UNDER play on Islanders-Blue Jackets The Islanders have undergone a pretty radical transformation this season. Last year, they set a rather infamous record by giving up the most goals ever over the course of an 82-game season. This year, they are giving up fewest goals per game average in the league (2.82). That's stunning. Obviously, the transformation is what's largely responsible for them now leading the Metropolitan Division. They did give up three in a loss to Buffalo Tuesday night. Tonight, they'll have their work cut out for them against a Columbus team that has won four straight while scoring 17 goals in the process. Don't be surprised if the Blue Jackets get held in check. They are 5-1 Under when on a win streak of three games or longer. This includes the 3-0 shutout of Washington Tuesday. Given they are off a shutout, don't be surprised if they keep the Isles in check as well. The Islanders are 13-5 Under their last 18 games. Play UNDER Islanders-Blue Jackets AAA |
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02-13-19 | Nets v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 148-139 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Nets-Cavs The Nets have dropped both games since leading scorer Caris LeVert returned to the lineup. Still, they have nothing to be ashamed about as far as their most recent performance goes. On the road, they took Toronto down to the wire, ultimately losing 127-125. Now, the fact Brooklyn has lost five of six is a bit concerning. But fortunately for them, they've got an easy one on tap tonight in Cleveland. The Cavaliers might be off a rare win, but they're still only 12-45 SU on the year. The only team with a worse record is the one they just beat, the Knicks. I expect this to be a high scoring affair given Cleveland is one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league. Brooklyn hasn't exactly been playing outstanding defense either, giving up an average of 119.4 points its last five games. They've allowed 125 or more points in three straight with all those games ending in regulation. The Over is 8-3 in the Nets last 11 road games while it's also 11-5-1 the Cavs last 17 home games. Play OVER Nets-Cavs AAA |
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02-12-19 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 208 | Top | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Spurs-Grizzlies The Spurs badly need a win tonight. They've started their annual "Rodeo Road Trip" with four consecutive losses, bringing them to 0-7 ATS their last seven games overall. Tonight they are just a short road favorite in Memphis. But before laying that short number, be aware that San Antonio has given up at least 125 points in every game on this trip. That precludes me from taking them here, but Over seems like a logical call given that's how every other game on the trip has gone so far. Memphis is the league's lowest scoring team, but because of that we are getting a low number for tonight. We should see the Grizzlies score more tonight than they have in a long time. On the flip side of that, San Antonio is going to score more than the average Memphis opponent. The Spurs have become one of the top shooting teams in the league this season and are the third most efficient offense. Play OVER San Antonio-Memphis AAA |
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02-12-19 | Flames v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Calgary-Tampa Bay The Flames and Lightning are the two highest scoring teams in the league. So you can't be surprised to see a high total for their game Tuesday. However, the normal parameters for setting an O/U line in NHL really hurt the oddsmakers in this one as I simply don't think a "normal" O/U line fits this particular matchup. When they met the first time this season, the Flames and Lightning combined for nine goals (Tampa Bay won in a shootout). Calling for a repeat of that would not be out of the ordinary as Calgary averages 3.7 goals per game while TB is at 3.9. At home, the Lightning's scoring average jumps to 4.1 goals per game. They have scored five goals in victories over both Pittsburgh and Florida the last two games. The Flames have given up 16 goals in four games since the All Star Break. The Over is 4-0 in February for Calgary and 13-2 their last 15 games. Bottom line is I expect a lot of scoring from the two most prolific teams in the league. Play OVER Calgary-Tampa Bay AAA |
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02-11-19 | Portland State v. CS Sacramento OVER 140.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Portland State/Sacramento State We head to Big Sky country for our top total this week as Sacramento State plays host to Portland State. Neither team is going anywhere this year. Both are near the bottom of the standings, but something else they have in common is a recent string of Unders. Portland State has gone Under five straight times while Sac State is 4-1 Under in its last five games. These rivals played three times last season and the Under was a perfect 3 for 3. Not this time, however. Because of all the Unders, this number comes in low, significantly lower than most of the recent O/U lines for both teams. It'll likely end up being the lowest total for any Portland State game this year and Sac State has only seen a few lower. Portland State is averaging 77 PPG and Sac State averages 78.6 at home. Neither team is great defensively either. Portland State shot just 35% in their last game, but should do much better than that here. The Vikings have let three straight opponents shoot better than 50% as well. Play OVER Portland State-Sacramento State AAA |
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02-09-19 | Clippers v. Celtics OVER 226 | Top | 123-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the OVER for Clippers-Celtics The Clippers team that takes the court Saturday night will look a lot different than the one we've seen for most of this season. Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley were both dealt at the trade deadline. An influx of new players are set to debut here in Boston. Depth has never been an issue for LA. In fact, it's why they're in playoff position. Though Harris was their leading scorer, I don't really expect the Clippers scoring to go down at all moving forward. Their games are usually high scoring as they both score and allow 113 PPG. Boston is off a high scoring game as they lost 129-128 to the Lakers Thursday night. That result did the Clippers no favors as it kept the Lakers close in the race for the 8th spot out West. Boston averages 115 PPG at home and the Over is 14-5 their last 19 times facing an opponent with a winning record. Oddsmakers expect a high scoring affair here and so do I. The Over is 9-5 in Celtics games this year if the total is 220 points or higher (7-3 at home). Play OVER Clippers-Celtics AAA |
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02-08-19 | Knicks v. Pistons OVER 206 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Knicks-Pistons The Knicks have been excruciatingly bad for some time, last winning a game on January 4th. It's been 14 losses in a row since then and perhaps most embarrassing of all is the fact they haven't broken 100 points in seven straight. Friday night, they'll play the Pistons again. These teams just met Tuesday and Detroit won at the Garden, 105-92. That the game stayed Under was a moderate surprise when you consider it was certainly a high scoring first half. It was 63-54 at the break, but things really slowed down in the third quarter and never picked back up. You have to think New York is going to score at least 100 in a game pretty soon. Why not tonight? The Pistons allowed more than 107 points per game on the year. New York allows 115.5 PPG on the road. The Over is 8-2 when the Knicks are playing with exactly two days rest. Detroit just traded one of its better defenders in Stanley Johnson. Play OVER New York-Detroit AAA |
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02-07-19 | Sharks v. Flames OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Sharks-Flames We've uncovered what looks to be yet another high-scoring affair on the NHL slate with San Jose traveling to Calgary. Going into the All-Star Break, the Sharks were having some serious issues stopping their opponents from scoring. They gave up six goals in four straight games! That issues seems to have been alleviated some as they've gone 2-0 since the Break, beating Arizona and Winnipeg by identical 3-2 scores. But tonight they're at Calgary and the Flames are known for scoring a ton at their rink. In fact, they average the highest number of goals per game of any team in the league at home. Tampa Bay was thought to be on a historic pace for goal scoring (and they were), but Calgary has passed them when it comes to home games, averaging 4.31 per game! So look for another high scoring game between two teams who combined for 13 goals the last time they played (New Year's Eve). Play OVER San Jose-Calgary AAA |
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02-06-19 | Senators v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Ottawa-Toronto Expect plenty of goals in this one. Toronto is fourth in the league in goals. Their Ontario rivals, Ottawa, have given up the most goals in the league. Provided the Senators can find the back of the net once or twice themselves, then this Over should come in with relative ease. The Maple Leafs just blitzed Anaheim for six goals on Monday. That was the lowest scoring team in the league they were facing and they still carried them Over the total. Ottawa is a respectable 13th in goals per game. Now the Sens did get shut out in their previous game, but that was Saturday. The Over is 4-1 this season when they play with three or more days rest. Eight of the last nine times these teams have played, the Over has hit. On the road, Ottawa is giving up 4.3 goals per game. Play OVER Ottawa-Toronto AAA |
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02-05-19 | Akron v. Toledo OVER 132.5 | Top | 52-63 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Akron-Toledo This is a number that I expect to be bet up throughout the course of the day. That sounds strange given how Akron games have played out of late and really all season. The Zips are 6-0 Under in the last six games and 15-4 Under overall. But because of that, tonight's total opened way too low. Akron will be facing a Toledo team that is averaging 81.2 PPG in its home arena. The Rockets have gone Under in three straight games themselves, but the previous two both took place out on the road. A return home should reignite their offense. For Toledo, this is a really low total as most of their games are 141.5 or above. This would be the lowest total for any Rockets game all season. So the oddsmakers are being far too conservative in their estimate for the amount of scoring in this game. Akron averages over 70 PPG itself. Play OVER Akron-Toledo AAA |
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02-04-19 | Coyotes v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Arizona-Dallas This is a matchup that tailor made for an Under. Arizona is 28th in goals scored and 8th in goals allowed per game. Dallas is 29th in goals scored, but 2nd in goals allowed. Both teams have certainly been trending Under of late. Arizona is 4-0-1 Under its last five games. Dallas is 8-0-1 Under in its last nine, only once allowing more than two goals in a game during that streak. The teams haven't met since October, but it is worth pointing out that the Stars shut the Coyotes out 3-0 here in Dallas. Also, there has been only one time in those last nine games that the Stars have scored more than three goals. This is destined to be a low-scoring game. Play UNDER Arizona-Dallas AAA |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 57.5 | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 285 h 19 m | Show |
This is 10* play on the UNDER for the Super Bowl. The expectation for this year's Super Bowl is that two of the league's higher scoring teams won't have much trouble scoring in what will favorable (indoor) conditions at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. New England certainly hasn't had much difficulty scoring in the postseason, averaging 39 points in wins over the Chargers and Chiefs. But Los Angeles had a terrible defensive gameplan and the Chiefs defense, at least statistically, is one of the worst in the league. But we should also remember that the Patriots had scored only 17 points through three quarters in KC before a wild fourth quarter took us to overtime. I was fortunate to have the Over in the AFC Championship Game, but will be going the other way in the Super Bowl as the Rams have the best defense NE has seen in some time. Also, while Los Angeles scored 33 or more points nine times in their first 11 games, they have done so just once in the last seven games. Super Bowls traditionally start slow. This one should be no different. This total will close as either the highest or 2nd highest for any SB in history. The previous high, set two years ago when the Patriots played the Falcons, only went Over because of overtime. Play UNDER Patriots-Rams AAA |
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02-02-19 | Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 223 | Top | 125-98 | Push | 0 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Houston-Utah Both teams played a high-scoring game last night. Utah won its game 128-112 over Atlanta. Houston was a 136-122 loser in Denver. These two high-scoring affairs make for a high total as the Jazz and Rockets hook it up tonight. Utah has now gone Over in three straight while Houston has done the same in back to back efforts. I had the Over in Utah's game last night. But I don't expect the offensive precision we saw last night from either side. The Rockets had a 43-point 1st quarter last night, but really slowed down after that. Utah shot exceptionally well, but there was a reason for that (they were facing Atlanta). The Rockets defense can't be any worse than it was yesterday as they allowed Denver to shoot better than 60%. Chris Paul is likely sitting this one out and James Harden can't possibly continue carrying the offensive load the way he has been. Utah is a good defensive team. Play UNDER Rockets-Jazz AAA |
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02-01-19 | Hawks v. Jazz OVER 226 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* OVER play on Hawks-Jazz Both of these teams gave up a lot of points the last time we saw them. Atlanta was torched for 135 by Sacramento, Utah gave up 132 to Portland. For one of them (Utah), such a defensive lapse was uncharacteristic. The Jazz do rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency, but that didn't stop Portland from coming in and scoring 45 in the first quarter alone. Atlanta is a bottom of the barrel defensive team anyway, so we should expect them to give up a lot of points again tonight. Both teams should also shoot the basketball better than they did in their last games. The Hawks last three games have all gone Over as have seven of their last nine. This is despite totals much higher than the one for this game. This is the sixth time this season that the Kings have gone Over in three straight games. They've never done four in a row. That will change tonight. Play OVER Hawks-Kings AAA |
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02-01-19 | Michigan v. Iowa OVER 141 | Top | 59-74 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Michigan-Iowa A rough couple games for Michigan now seem to be in the rear view mirror. On January 19th, they suffered their first and only loss of the season, 64-54 at Wisconsin. They followed that up by almost losing to Minnesota at home. But the last seven days have gone much better with the Wolverines winning by double digits against both Indiana (69-46) and Ohio State (65-49). Anytime you allow less than 50 points in back to back games, that's obviously impressive. It's certainly more impressive than what Iowa has done on the defensive end in its last two games. The Hawkeyes have given up 82 and 92 points in losses to Michigan State and Minnesota. They've now allowed 80 or more five times in Big 10 action. While Michigan is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, Iowa is 120th. While its obvious who has the edge defensively in this Friday night matchup, don't be surprised if the game still ends up being higher scoring than expected. Iowa does average 84.2 PPG at home. For them, this is a low total, one that should easily go Over as Michigan should score plenty tonight as well. Play OVER Michigan-Iowa AAA |
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01-30-19 | Jazz v. Blazers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 105-132 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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01-28-19 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 222 | Top | 104-112 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-26-19 | 76ers v. Nuggets UNDER 226 | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Sixers-Nuggets Denver played Phoenix last night. That game went as you expect. The Nuggets won 132-95. Thus, they stand firmly in the second place position in the Western Conference (trailing only Golden State) with a 32-15 SU record. Tonight, they get Nikola Jokic back. (He was suspended last night, but that hardly mattered). For a second straight night, Denver's opponent won't be at full strength. Friday, the Suns were without several players, Ayton and Warren cheif among them. Tonight, Philadelphia will take the floor without Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid. That's tough. Those are the Sixers top two scorers. Denver held Phoenix under 100 points and is capable of doing the same thing tonight to Philly. As for the offensive end, the Nuggets had a ridiculous number of players in double figures last night, which won't happen again. Even if a lot of that is due to Jokic's return, the team will score far fewer tonight as they are 5-2 Under when playing the second night of a back to back. Play UNDER Philadelphia-Denver AAA |
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01-25-19 | Butler v. Creighton UNDER 154 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Butler-Creighton Both Butler and Creighton are quickly falling off the pace in the Big East. Creighton was at least able to stop the bleeding some with a 91-87 win over Georgetown Monday. That snapped a four-game losing skid. Butler comes in off a loss to Villanova, which was just their second home defeat this season. The focus here is on the total. Butler has gone Over in all seven conference games so far. One of those came against Creighton. Butler won the game 84-69, thanks to getting out to a big first half lead. They shot better than 50% too. But the Bulldogs offensive numbers do drop pretty significantly on the road. So I would not expect another 80+ effort from them tonight. Similarly, Creighton is better on the defensive end here in Omaha. The Bluejays have really struggled to get stops lately, but tonight will be a different story. The number opened as the highest total for any Butler conference game so far. It's too high. Play UNDER Butler-Creighton AAA |
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01-25-19 | Wizards v. Magic OVER 217.5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on the OVER in Wizards-Magic Washington played last night, putting them at a bit of a disadvantage tonight in Orlando. They did cover last night vs. Golden State, which was good for me as I had them plus the points. But, truth be told, it was a bit of a "lucky" cover with a late three-pointer getting the Wizards inside the number. Golden State scored 126 points last night on almost 57 percent shooting. Orlando isn't the offensive juggernaut that Golden State is, but they can surely take advantage of an already suspect Wizards defense playing with some tired legs. Washington already allows 117.9 PPG on the road and is near the bottom of the league in efficiency on that end of the floor. Then there's the fact the Over is 26-11 for the Wiz when they're playing a second game in two nights. That includes 5-2 this year. Orlando has gone Over in each of its last six games. These teams met twice in November. Both games went Over as 225 and 226 total points were scored. Play OVER Washington-Orlando AAA |
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01-22-19 | Hurricanes v. Flames UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Carolina-Calgary Few teams in this league are as hot as the Flames right now. I don't mean just figuratively either. Literally, Calgary has won 9 out of its last 11 games and because of that they'll head into the All Star Break in first place in the Pacific Division. Only Tampa Bay has more points. But tonight's game may not be as easy as the oddsmakers think as Carolina just did the same thing Calgary did in its last game. That would be go to Edmonton and win by three goals. After the Flames beat the Oilers 5-2 on Saturday, the Hurricanes did it by a score of 7-4. The pair of high-scoring efforts from these teams have led to a high total for tonight's contests and an excellent "value" play on the Under. Carolina doesn't score nearly as much as it should given the number of shot attempts they typically produce. The Flames have seen their last seven games all go Over, but Carolina is 6-1 to the Under when facing a team with a home win percentage of .600 or greater. Play UNDER Carolina-Calgary AAA |
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01-22-19 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 228 | Top | 114-123 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a *10* play on the UNDER in Portland-OKC. As with most games out West, this one is important as Portland and Oklahoma City come into Tuesday tied for third place in the conference. The Trail Blazers have won three in a row, but this is a tricky spot as they played last night in Utah. They beat the Jazz 109-104, largely on the back of a strong third quarter where they scored 39 points. Overall, it was a strong shooting night for them. The Thunder also played a road game on MLK Day and had little difficulty defeating the Knicks, doing so by a final score of 127-109. This Thunder team has been strong defensively for much of this year as it ranks near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. They too shot well yesterday. But I look for both offenses to struggle a bit in the second game of a back to back. Portland is already 6-1 Under when playing with no rest. Impressive for both teams is that their play on the defensive ends seems to improve in this situation. The Blazers are allowing just 101.7 PPG when unrested. OKC allows only 102.7 PPG. Play UNDER Portland-Oklahoma City AAA |
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01-21-19 | Blues v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Blues-Kings These are two poor teams that don't score much, so betting the Under seems to be a logical move. No team has scored fewer goals this season than have the Kings. Over the last six games, they've had just one game with more than two. They've scored five total in the last three, all of which were road games. They also gave up seven in Colorado on Saturday, a game where I said to take the Avs. That number (of goals allowed) will certainly come down today as they go from facing a club with the top line in the sport (and that Avs' line accounted for 3 goals & 3 assists) to St. Louis, who is just 25th in the league in scoring. Seven of the Blues previous eight games have stayed Under, the one exception coming when they gave up five goals to Boston. The Kings aren't capable of producing that kind of firepower, so don't look for much scoring in this one as the Under is 7-3 the past 10 meetings. The Under is also 12-3-1 in St. Louis last 16 road games. Play UNDER St. Louis-Los Angeles AAA |
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01-21-19 | Thunder v. Knicks UNDER 228 | Top | 127-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER in OKC-NY! Oklahoma City had not been playing well lately, so Saturday's result in Philadelphia was quite welcome. Paul George's four-point play (in the final seconds) gave the Thunder a 117-115 win. It was just their second win in seven games. Theoretically, it should be an easy win this afternoon. They face a Knicks team that has lost 20 of its last 23 games. Two of those three wins were in overtime, the other against the Lakers, who didn't have LeBron. But I would be leery of laying points in such an early start time. I do expect this to be a low-scoring game though. The Knicks haven't broken 106 points once in the last five games. The Thunder have been one of the top defensive teams this season. They currently rank 3rd in efficiency. Again, this all sounds like an OKC blowout here, but I look for the Thunder to be a bit "off" offensively in this one. The Under is 4-1 the last five times they have been off a SU or ATS win. Play UNDER Oklahoma City-New York AAA |
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01-20-19 | Suns v. Wolves OVER 227 | Top | 114-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Phoenix-Minnesota I think we can count on these two to produce a high-scoring game. Phoenix is a very poor defensive team, one of the worst in the league in that regard. When they take their losing act out on the road, they give up almost 118 PPG. I played against the Suns yesterday as they went down 135-115 at the hands of Charlotte. Something very similar could take place here today in Minnesota as the Timberwolves aren't shy about scoring (113.9 PPG) nor are they the toughest team defensively either. Two games ago, they gave up 149 points to Philadelphia, who shot almost 60% for the game. They've given up at least 116 four times in the past five games. The Over is 16-5 in Minnesota's last 21 games overall, which includes 7-2 the last nine at home. The Over is also 7-1 the last eight times they've been off a SU defeat and Friday they did lose to San Antonio, 116-113. I project both teams to score at least 115 points in this matchup. Play OVER on Phoenix-Minnesota AAA |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 101 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER between New England & Kansas City. The Over on last Sunday's Chargers-Patriots game, my only play on a NFL total for the whole weekend, won easily. As you may have read when buying this selection, was a LOCK by halftime, a WINNER by the third quarter & ended up going Over by THREE touchdowns! New England had 35 points by halftime and then was able to take its foot off the gas. The amount of scoring done by the Patriots does decline greatly on the road. But the good news for this week is that they won't have to score nearly as many points this week for the game to go Over. Not when faced with Kansas City's offense, which ranked 1st in yards per game, per play and points during the regular season. When these teams met in the regular season, it was 43-40, a win for New England. Maybe this game isn't as high scoring. But I don't think they'll combined to score 30 less points, do you? The Over is 6-1 in the Patriots last seven playoff games. Play New England @ Kansas City OVER. AAA |
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01-19-19 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 219 | Top | 102-124 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Cleveland-Denver Being that they are 17-point underdogs, Cleveland probably doesn't stand much of a chance here. It definitely doesn't help that they just played last night in Utah (lost 115-99). Those around the league will tell you that the Utah-Denver back to back set is among the most treacherous in the league. A bad team like the Cavs isn't going to fare well. But the pointspread is also really high, so that's why I'm staying away from playing the side, even though I just won with Denver Thursday night as they blew out the Bulls by 30. I expect this to be a bit more of a low-scoring affair as Cleveland is pretty bad offensively, especially with such limited options. The roster is really thin right now, Kevin Love the most notable absence. Given this game is probably going to be a blowout, look for scoring to slow down late and the game to stay Under. Play UNDER Cleveland-Denver AAA |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots OVER 46.5 | Top | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 142 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Over in Chargers-Patriots The Chargers scored 23 points on the Ravens in the Wild Card Game, but they certainly didn't come easy. It was five field goals and a touchdown (with a 2-pt conversion). But keep in mind that was the best defense in the league they were facing. I got the distinct impression that had they been facing most other defenses, Philip Rivers and the offense would have scored a lot more points. Los Angeles averages 26.8 points per game and is one of the top teams in yards per play. So what I'm saying is that they should score more this week against the Patriots than they did last week vs. the Ravens. Of course, New England should score plenty as well. Tom Brady and the Pats offense were a lot more effective at home this year, so it's huge getting this game in Foxboro. They were the league's only unbeaten team at home (8-0) and a big reason for that is they averaged 32.9 PPG here. Only the Rams and Saints averaged more points at home this year. While each team has gone Under in its last three games, the Chargers had to play Baltimore twice (and a Denver team that isn't very good on offense) while the Patriots played two bad offensive teams (Jets, Bills) and a road game vs. the Steelers. Play OVER on Chargers-Patriots AAA |
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01-13-19 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Canes-Preds The puck will drop early in Raleigh Sunday afternoon, but don't expect many goals to be scored in this one. That statement may surprise you if you've been paying attention to either of these two teams lately. Nashville has scored three or more goals in eight consecutive games while Carolina, who always preaches high shot volume, has scored four or more times in five of its last six games. But this early start time should work against the skaters on Sunday. I should also point out that the Predators allow the fewest number of goals per game in the entire league. And while the Hurricanes often get a lot of shots on goal, they don't convert at even close to a league average rate. Their shot percentage (7.4%) for the year is dead last in the league. Nashville is playing its sixth straight road game, so fatigue could very well be a factor for them today. The Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams. Play UNDER Nashville-Carolina. AAA |
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01-12-19 | Grizzlies v. Heat OVER 196.5 | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Over Memphis-Miami. You normally don't see a total this low in the NBA, although the last time the Heat and Grizzlies faced off, the number was actuall slightly lower. Being that first matchup went Over, oddsmakers had to adjust their number at least a little bit, but it's still not high enough in my estimation at below 200 points. Now I understand the Memphis has not hit 100 in any of its last three games, all of which resulted in Unders. And Miami was held under 100 in back to back losses before beating Boston 115-99 Thursday night. But Heat games are averaging more than 211 points this season while Grizzlies games are at 203.4. Seven of Miami's last nine games have gone Over. The Grizzlies last game, a surprise 96-86 win over San Antonio, saw them shoot 41.1% and hold the Spurs to 36%. Such percentages are not likely to be repeated. In fact, in the Grizzlies previous game before that, they allowed New Orleans to shoot almost 56%. Play OVER on Memphis-Miami AAA |
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01-10-19 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 212 | Top | 99-115 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Under Celtics-Heat The Celtics looked very good last night in dispatching Indiana 135-108. But despite "lighting it up" offensively against one of the league's top defensive teams, I wouldn't look for the C's to be nearly as prolific tonight. For starters, they may not have to be as the Heat have failed to score 100 points in back to back games. The game is also in Miami, not Boston. The Celtics are just 1-5 ATS this season in the second game of a back to back. Both sides have been going Over a lot recently, so we have a total that's at least a couple points higher than it should be. These teams went the entire 2018 calendar year without facing one another (last meeting was December 2017), so there's an unfamiliarity here. Boston does remain one of the league's better defensive teams and Miami isn't too far behind, joining them in the top 10 in efficiency. The Celtics are working on a streak of holding three straight opponents below a 43.0 FG% and that should continue tonight. But I wouldn't look for Boston to come anywhere close to the red hot shooting (56.9 FG%) from last night, which was their highest scoring game of the year. Miami didn't have a single player with more than 15 points Tuesday against Denver. The Under is 7-2 in Boston's last nine games vs. a team with a losing home record. Play UNDER on Boston-Miami AAA |
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01-09-19 | Bucks v. Rockets UNDER 226 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Bucks-Rockets This should be a really good game on ESPN tonight as the 23-16 Rockets host the 28-11 Bucks. After a really good regular season last year (led the league with 65 wins), the Rockets got off to a slow start this year. But they've really turned things around recently, going 12-2 SU since December 11th with a big 125-113 win over Denver taking place on Monday. Milwaukee has a legit claim to being the best team in the league right now, though a loss to short-handed Toronto over the weekend certainly was disappointing. But the Bucks bounced back by beating Utah 114-102 Monday night. The expectation for tonight will be plenty of points, but something you may not be aware of is that Houston is playing at a much slower pace this year (28th in # of possessions per game). They are also still without Chris Paul. Milwaukee doesn't score nearly as much on the road as they do at home. Thus the Under has gone 6-1 their last seven road games. Play UNDER Milwaukee-Houston. AAA |