Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY This is a rematch from the Divisional Round of the playoffs. That game started great for the Texans. They were up 24-0 early in the second quarter. But from that point forward, the Chiefs outscored them 51-7 and went on to win the franchise’s 2nd Super Bowl. As the defending Super Bowl Champion, the Chiefs open the season at home on Thursday night. Save for last year, this has been the practice going back to 2004. The SB Champ has lost only two of the 15 times it has played on Opening Night. One of the losses was a weak Giants team (game was actually played on Weds due to Democratic National Convention). The other was three years ago when the Patriots lost … to the Chiefs. Not even spotting the Texans 24 points could prevent the Chiefs from winning by double digits in January. Houston figures to be weaker in 2020 as they lost Pro Bowl wideout DeShaun Watson, not to mention they were an extremely lucky 10-win team a year ago. They led at halftime in only six of their games and just two of their wins were by more than eight points. They went 5-1 SU in games decided by a field goal or less. Kansas City has covered its last eight games and should have its way with a weaker version of a team they beat by 17 points in the playoffs. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-10-20 | Golden Knights v. Stars +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on DALLAS +1.5 Dallas posted a shutout in Game 1 (1-0) and then Vegas returned the favor in Game 2, winning 3-0. It’s pretty clear that the level of scoring we’ve seen from both sides in the bubble appears ready to subside. While the Stars have scored just once in the two games, the Golden Knights have been blanked in five of the six periods as well. They didn’t score until the 2nd period of Game 2. While Vegas has posted two shutouts in the last four games, they’ve also been shutout themselves in the other two. Both teams have actually lost three of five. We give Dallas just as much of a shot at winning Game 3 as Vegas. While they’d be a solid bet here on the moneyline, the puck line is the better route in what likely promises to be a low-scoring game. Play DALLAS +1.5 AAA |
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09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL -13.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI UAB and Miami are set to hook it up Thursday night in Coral Gables. This game was originally set for next Thursday, but was bumped up a week due to COVID-19 wreaking havoc on all the schedules. UAB was a 9-win team a year ago and made the C-USA Championship Game. But consider for a moment the fact the Blazers beat only ONE FBS team with a winning record. Now had they faced Miami, that number wouldn’t have changed as the Hurricanes are off a tremendously disappointing 6-7 season under Manny Diaz that ended with an embarrassing 14-0 shutout by La Tech in the Independence Bowl. This year, “The U” promises to be a whole lot better though. D’Eriq King has transferred in to play quarterback. Two years ago, when he was with Houston, King led the entire FBS with 50 touchdown passes. The defense is going to be outstanding. UAB already played a game, but it was an unimpressive 45-35 win over Central Arkansas where they turned the ball over three times. If they gave up that many points to a FCS opponent, imagine how much they’ll give up here. UAB has covered just 1 of the previous 5 times it has been a road underdog. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON A second half surge propelled the Lakers to a 112-102 win and cover in Game 3. Now they’ll look to go up 3-1 in the best of seven series against the Rockets. Obviously, Houston is in a virtual must win. We’ll take the points with them as they’ve been very close each of the last two games. Game 2 saw them erase all of an early double digit deficit to go up heading into the 4th quarter. This despite the Lakers shooting better 56% from the field, for the entire game! Game 3 saw the Rockets take the lead into halftime. But again, hot shooting from the Lakers (55.1 FG%) was too much to overcome. The fact that Los Angeles has shot better than 55% the L2 games, yet trailed and was tied going into the 4th quarter is not a good sign, in our opinion. Inevitably, their shooting will cool off. Meanwhile, the Rockets are due to heat up. This is the first time they’ve trailed in a series this postseason. The Lakers are only 5-10-1 ATS in the bubble and this is the first time they’ve covered two in a row. They are 3-7 ATS off their last 10 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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09-09-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -164 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY The Lightning exploded for 8 goals in Game 1, burying the Islanders in the process. Scoring 8 goals in one game is always going to be impressive, but when you do it against a team that was allowing just 1.94 goals/game since the restart, well, that’s downright remarkable. Don’t look for the Lightning to score 8 times again, but they will win Game 2 against an Islanders team that has to be absolutely shell-shocked. A huge advantage the Lightning had coming into the series is that they had a full week off while New York had just been taken seven games by the Flyers and had only one day off between series. Tampa Bay has now won five straight as well as eight of its last nine. They’ve allowed just six goals in the previous four wins. This is a team on a mission following last year’s humiliating playoff exit. The Islanders have won just 4 of the last 17 times they’ve been an underdog and just 1 of the last 6 times they’ve played on one days rest. Tampa Bay is 41-12 the L53 after allowing 2 or less goals the previous game. Play on TAMPA BAY. AAA |
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09-09-20 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Lightning exploded for 8 goals in Game 1, burying the Islanders in the process. Scoring 8 goals in one game is always going to be impressive, but when you do it against a team that was allowing just 1.94 goals/game since the restart, well, that’s downright remarkable. Obviously, the Lightning aren’t scoring 8 goals again in Game 2. Nor should they come close to that number. This is an Islanders team that kept the Flyers to 16 shots in Game 7 and kept the Capitals to two goals or less in four of the five games in the Opening Round. There were only three games that went Over for the Lightning in the first two rounds. They have allowed just six goals in the last four games. The Under is 7-3 the last 10 times the Islanders have been off a loss by 3 or more goals. The Under is 8-2 for the Lightning the last 10 times they have been off a game where they scored 5 or more goals. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-09-20 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Colorado is having all sorts of trouble with San Diego this year. The last four times these NL West rivals have met, it has been the Padres coming out on top. The Rockies have managed a grand total of seven runs in those four losses, five of those coming last night. Meanwhile, SD has twice scored double digit runs on Rockies pitching, including 14 yesterday. The Padres continue to pace all of MLB with 253 runs scored in 44 games. They should finish above their 5.7 runs/game average again tonight as they face Senzatela, who is 6-2 Over in his eight starts for the Rockies. Senzatela does have two really good starts under his belt vs. the Padres, but the third time should be the charm for the best offense in baseball. San Diego starter Davies has mostly been lights out so far, but has given up seven runs in two starts vs. Colorado. Consider that in the nine head to head meetings between Colorado & San Diego this year, the winning team has scored at least six runs. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-09-20 | Raptors +3 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO It’s a cliche assessment of Game 5, but Toronto really was badly outplayed at both ends of the floor. The game was never really in doubt as the Celtics raced out to a 25-11 lead after one quarter and a 62-37 lead by halftime. They held the Raptors to 38.8% shooting. But as we see so often in the NBA Playoffs, teams tend to bounce back from a poor effort. Now facing elimination, the Raptors have no other option but to bounce back. They really do need to get it going offensively as they’re averaging just 97.2 PPG for the series. Throughout the course of the series, the odds have shifted rather significantly as Toronto closed as a 2-point favorite for Game 1, but is now a 3-point dog for Game 6. While the pointspread is still unlikely to come into play, we do think there’s value in taking the Raptors as an underdog. They are 6-1-1 ATS their L8 playoff games getting points. The possibility of not having Serge Ibaka hurts, however that’s something they can overcome. Coach Nurse said "I know it sounds crazy .. but I thought our offense was awesome for like the first eight minutes," This despite the team going 2 for 15. Nurse added. "I don't think those shots could have been more open." Look for the Raptors to make those open shots Wednesday. They’ve got no other option. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-09-20 | Brewers -142 v. Tigers | Top | 19-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE The Brewers couldn’t put together enough runs to keep pace with the Tigers last night. In fact, they didn’t even score until putting three on the board in the top of the ninth! But despite losing 8-3, they actually wound up with more hits than Detroit (10-8) and it was more of a case of “cluster luck” than anything else. For today’s game, we’re backing Milwaukee as they turn to the reliable Corbin Burnes. In his previous two starts, Burnes has gone six innings and the only run allowed was unearned. He has 17 strikeouts in those 12 innings. With him on the mound, the Brewers beat Pittsburgh 9-1 and then Cleveland 7-1. In four of his five starts this season, Burnes has allowed 1 or 0 runs. Matthew Boyd gets the start here for Detroit. While he too has gone six innings in consecutive quality outings, he still allowed three home runs. Both starts saw Boyd give up two runs, which is obviously more than Brunes in the same stretch. Also, Boyd got off to a shaky start this year. None of his first six starts were considered “quality” and he’s still just 1-5 with a 6.64 ERA. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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09-08-20 | Mariners v. Giants -144 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF RIght now, the Giants have better than 50% odds of making the postseason. With the Dodgers and Padres so far in front, the best SF can probably hope for is the 7 or 8 seed, but the National League has such little depth right now and that’s very attainable. Three straight wins have the Giants at .500 for the season (20-20). A big reason for that is an 8-2 record against the Dbax, whom they defeated yesterday by a score of 4-2. That series is now over and it’s time to welcome in a Seattle team that’s won six straight. Similar to how the Giants have feasted on the Dbax in 2020, the Mariners have done the same to the Rangers, the team they just swept. Seattle is 8-2 against Texas and 11-20 vs. everyone else. The Giants qualify as “everyone else” and shouldn’t have much difficulty beating up on a team that’s allowing almost six full runs/game on the road. A rookie, Ljay Newsome, makes just his second big league start for the Mariners today. He’s starting in place of the traded Taijuan Walker. Logan Webb goes for the Giants and he allowed no more than three runs in any of his first six starts. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-08-20 | Lakers v. Rockets OVER 223.5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Lakers evened this series up Sunday (1-1) with a 117-109 win in Game 2. After getting off to fast start (led 36-20 after the first quarter), LA actually trailed going into the fourth. But they turned up the defense (just 17 points allowed in 4th) and their own hot shooting (56.6% for the game) was too much for Houston to overcome. Now we’re onto a critical Game 3 that should see both teams heavily focused. Somebody to watch is Russell Westbrook, whose numbers have been far from stellar since returning to the court in the Oklahoma City series. Westbrook missed six of the seven three-point attempts he took in Game 2. We think he’s in line to have a better Game 3. On the flip side, the Rockets have allowed an average of 100 points on 43.5% shooting the L5 games. We don’t think that’ll hold up. The Lakers have a big matchup advantage on the inside (Anthony Davis) and have scored at least 111 points in five of their last six games. Look for the Over to hit for a second straight game. Play on OVER. AAA |
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09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -158 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS Vegas got shutout in Game 1, the third time in their last four games where they were held to one goal or less. Despite that disturbing trend, we are going to predict the Golden Knights bounce back in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals as they are favored for a reason. Dallas even making it thus far is a bit of a surprise. They were heavy underdogs in every game vs. Colorado, yet won a 7-game series. Back in the first round, they were just 12 seconds away from being down 3 games to 1 against Calgary. Vegas is 3-1 off a loss in the bubble, the lone failure being Game 6 against Vancouver. Whereas Dallas is relatively even in shots and goals (compared to their opponents) in the postseason, Vegas has big advantages in both. Even after watching Game 1, we still prefer the Golden Knights’ goaltending situation to that of the Stars. Ryan Reaves will be back for Game 2 (suspended for Game 1) and we look for the Golden Knights power play (1 for its last 14) to “wake up” if called upon. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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09-08-20 | Rays v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH +1.5 Stuck in last place, the Nationals are finding it hard to defend their World Series Championship. But they did beat the Rays yesterday 6-1. Getting the Nats +1.5 at this price, at home no less, is definitely something we would not have foreseen just a couple weeks ago. We’ll take advantage of it as they still can be a dangerous club as they proved last night. A lot of that was due to Max Scherzer, but you’ve got to think there’s “more where that came from.” Tuesday’s starter Anibal Sanchez has struggled in his last two starts, however, the Rays have not scored more than five runs in 9 of their last 10 games. That leaves the door open with the run line as Washington has scored five or more runs in 6 of its last 10 contests. Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough missed his last start due to injury, thus he’s a bit of a question mark coming into today’s game. The Rays’ bullpen does not have good numbers on the road. Play WASHINGTON +1.5. AAA |
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09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +9 | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver played a masterful Game 2, jumping out to a 44-25 advantage by the end of the first quarter, then holding on for the 110-101 upset as 8.5-point underdogs. After the Lakers successfully bounced back from a loss last night, most will anticipate the Clippers doing the same thing tonight. But we feel this line is just too high for an LA team that is just too inconsistent. Plus, the Nuggets have won four of their last five games anyway. They’ve also covered four of the last five times they’ve been an underdog. They are 12-1 ATS their L13 Monday games. Kawhi Leonard had a bad Game 2 and while his numbers should be better tonight, Denver seems to have developed a defensive strategy for him. Paul George can’t be consistently relied on as a second scoring option. We think its Denver that’s likely to have a better offensive performance tonight. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-07-20 | Astros v. A's -145 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland looks to bounce back after losing two of three to San Diego over the weekend. Houston was even worse, dropping all four games to the Angels. The A’s are also going for revenge as they lost both games of a doubleheader against the ‘Stros back on August 29th. Those two games were in Houston though. When the Astros came to Oakland earlier in the year, the A’s won all three games. In that series, Montas (who starts here for Oakland) had a strong outing where he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed only two hits. In that same series (next day), Houston’s Javier (Monday starter) allowed five runs in three innings and gave up three home runs. The Astros just aren’t the same team they were the last few seasons. Some of it has to do with injuries, but they are also allowing 6.5 runs/game on the road. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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09-07-20 | Elise Mertens v. S Kenin -144 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Kenin We’re onto the 4th round on the women’s side of the draw in the 2020 US Open. There will be just 12 women remaining at the end of Sunday and we’ll be down to the eight quarterfinalists following this matchup of the #2 seed Kenin and the #16 seed Mertens. Kenin has yet to drop a set here in Flushing Meadow, winning 6-2 and 6-2 in Round 1 over Wickmayer, 6-4 and 6-3 over Fernandez in Round 2 and then 7-6, 6-3 over Jabeur in Round 3. Mertens also has not dropped a set, eliminating Siegemund (6-2, 6-2), Sorribes Tormo (6-3, 7-5) and then McNally (7-5, 6-1). But it’s now a big jump going to face the top seeded player left in this draw. Kenin already won the Australian Open, the only other completed Grand Slam this year. She is 2-0 vs. Mertens, both times winning in three sets. Mertens has only lost three times in 2020, but two of the losses have been on hard court. Against McNally, her first serve percentage was only at 55%. Play on KENIN AAA |
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09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -101 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER While it may seem “controversial” to bet the Under on a total of 5.0 - especially with the Lightning involved - what the Islanders have been doing defensively since the restart is very impressive. They’re allowing a league-best 1.94 goals per game. While Tampa Bay was able to score three or more times in 7 of the 10 games against Boston and Columbus, this is a greater challenge. Plus the Lightning have to deal with the “rust” issue having not taken the ice for an actual game since August 31st, which is exactly one week ago. The Islanders just staved off top-seeded Philadelphia in a 7-game series. But let’s not forget they were up 3-1 in that series or that they blanked the Flyers in Game 7 (4-0), holding them to just 16 shot attempts. The Isles kept the Capitals to two goals or less in four of five games in the previous round. Not convinced either side scores more than two goals tonight. There were only three games that went Over in the Lightning’s first two series. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy OVER 48.5 | Top | 55-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER BYU is coming off two consecutive 7-6 seasons and this may be the most experienced (and talented) team Kalani Sitake has had yet in Provo. Last year did end with a 38-34 loss in the Hawaii Bowl (to Hawaii), however, the Cougars offense really turned it on down the stretch by scoring 31 or more points in five of the last six games. Sitake’s team opens the season all the way across the country in Annapolis against Navy. The Midshipmen won 11 games and beat Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl last year. That was a big bounce back from the 3-win season that was 2018. They averaged 37.2 points/game last season, a three year high under coach Niumatalolo. This game was not originally scheduled for 2020. While both teams have some holes to fill on offense, look for a relatively high-scoring game Monday night. We saw several teams on Saturday put up big point totals and not look adversely affected by the lack of practice time. BYU is 3-0-1 Over its last four games against American teams. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-06-20 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Dodgers were held to just two runs on Saturday and lost to the Rockies. But you can’t keep this lineup down for long as LA has scored 230 runs in 41 games, which is second most in all of baseball. They exploded for 10 runs in the series opener and Rockies pitching has really struggled mightily this last week or so. Four different times in their last eight games, Colorado has allowed 10 runs or more. Who can forget the humiliating 23-5 loss they took on the 1st of the month, at the hands of the Giants? So the Dodgers are very much capable of sending this one Over on their own. Especially facing Castellani, who has a 7.90 ERA and 1.61 WHIP his past three starts. In two of those three starts, the Rockies opponent has ended up scoring 13 runs. The Over is 5-1 when Dodgers’ starter Urias is pitching including 3-0 L3. There have been no fewer than nine total runs scored in all of his starts in 2020. It was a low-scoring game yesterday, but that won’t be the case here in this unusually late Sunday start. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 224 | Top | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Houston pulled the upset in Game 1, winning 112-97 as a 6.5-point dog. It was the Lakers’ second straight Game 1 loss as in the 1st round, they lost 100-93 to Portland. Of course, they came back and won that series by rather easily taking the next four games. So LA definitely can’t be counted out. However, they are just 3-10-1 ATS in the bubble, meaning they’re tough to trust laying points. We’re playing the total in Game 2, which we believe is too high. The Rockets 34-17 Under L51 as underdogs and 18-6 Under L24 when coming off an upset win. A big surprise in their playoff run has been the defense, which has allowed more than 108 in regulation just one time. Over the last four contests, they’re giving up just over 95 points/game and the Under is 4-0. Houston hasn’t scored more than 114 since Game 1 of the Thunder series. The Lakers allowed just 88 points against Portland in Game 2 of their last series (last time off a loss). The Under is 4-1 the last five Rockets-Lakers matchups including 2 for 2 inside the bubble. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-06-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -163 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -163 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VEGAS Vegas earned the #1 seed in the Western Conference by sweeping its round robin games. The Golden Knights then needed only five games to dispatch Chicago in Round 1. Round 2 took a little longer than expected as the Canucks forced a Game 7. But Vegas still took the clincher in one-sided fashion, 3-0. Dallas was similarly taken to a Game 7 last round after having a 3-1 series lead over the Avalanche. They needed OT to advance as it was 5-4 victory. The Stars have been quite the high scoring side this postseason, ever since a 5-4 win over Calgary in Round 1. Since that win, they’ve scored 42 goals in 10 games. But Vegas had three shutout wins against Vancouver. Another problem for the Stars is how many goals they’ve been allowing. The Avalanche scored 24 times over the previous five games. In the playoffs, Vegas has done an outstanding job at controlling the puck and dominating shots on goal. They’ve got a much better goaltending situation than either of Dallas’ prior two opponents and beat the Stars 5-3 in the very first game here in the bubble. Take the better team. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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09-05-20 | Nuggets +9 v. Clippers | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Nuggets look to rebound from a poor Game 1 effort where they were at the disadvantage of only having one day between series while the Clippers had three. Still, it wasn’t just a matter of rest in the 120-97 defeat. Denver shot the ball horribly, especially from “downtown” as they were 9 of 36 on all three-point attempts. Overall, they shot 42.2% while the Clippers were at 57.1%. We won’t claim that the Nuggets are a great defensive team, but they’ll definitely allow a lower shooting percentage Saturday in Game 2. Denver has cashed the L6 times they have been down in a playoff series including a 3-0 ATS this year. Note that the Clippers failed to cover off their first two wins in the first round series with Dallas, losing outright both times. This is a lot of points for the Nuggets to be getting and while it may not have been nearly enough in Game 1, improved shooting coupled with some obvious regression from the Clippers should lead to at least a cover this time. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-05-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -124 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on SEATTLE These two AL West also-rans have already met seven times on the field this season. The Mariners won the last four, all of which have been played here in Seattle. They swept a weekend series two weeks ago, then took last night’s opener by a score of 6-3. Sad to report Rangers fans that the misery is likely to continue tonight. Kyle Gibson is on the mound and Texas is just 1-6 when he starts including 0-3 the last three. In those last three starts, Gibson has a 9.37 ERA. He’s given up five or more runs every start, 17 total, and allowed six home runs. Seattle has won three in a row now, and given up only five runs in the process. Sheffield pitched once before against the Rangers and he held them to one run in six innings as the Mariners ultimately prevailed 10-1. The Rangers’ run differential is really bad (-65) as only the Red Sox are worse. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-05-20 | Andre Muniz v. Bartosz Fabinski -160 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FABINSKI These two middleweights are both coming off victories their last time out. Fabinski’s was more recent as he took a unanimous decision over Darren Stewart back in March to move to 15-3. Muniz is on a five-fight win streak, but hasn’t fought since November, which was his UFC debut. So the five consecutive victories don’t really carry much water. Though he’s fought more recently, Fabinski has just five fights total under his belt the last four years due to injuries. But he also has just one loss since 2014 as he’s gone 8-1 his last nine. Most of those wins have been by decision, but that speaks to the style of fighter than Fabinski is. He’s a grind it out type guy, content to win via the judges. He has no problem simply staying ahead on points and an ability to get this fight to the mat should obviously work in his favor. Muniz has a tendency to tire late, so look for Fabinski to pour it on in the final round - if it gets there. Play on FABINSKI AAA |
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09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis -18 | Top | 24-37 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Memphis is a big favorite Saturday and justifiably so as they are coming off a 12-2 season last year and have won seven straight season openers. Arkansas State went 8-5 SU in 2019 and has now won at least 7 games in each of Blake Anderson’s six seasons here. But the Red Wolves are badly outclassed in this one. Their defense gave up 34.2 points/game and 6.1 yards/play last year and has just three starters back. Memphis is likely to be the best offense they see all season. Though the head coach left, the schemes and key contributors on the field largely remain the same for the Tigers. QB White leads an offense that has averaged over 40 points/game each of the previous three seasons. Memphis was 7-0 at the Liberty Bowl last season, winning most of those games by double digits. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY (Money Line) Both Middle Tennessee and Army are expected to be improved in 2020. For Middle Tennessee, the bounce back seems logical. Two years ago they were 7-1 in Conference USA and came up just 2 points shy of the Title Game. Losing QB Stockstill last season (graduation) had a real impact as they fell all the way down to 4-8 overall, ending a 7-year bowl run. It’s a similar deal for Army, who went 11-2 SU two years ago only to drop to 5-8 SU last season. These teams combined to go 1-7 straight up in one score games in 2019. Only one can win here though and we think that will be Army. This game was not originally on the schedule and preparing for the triple option is tough even when you know that it's coming. Middle Tennessee’s defense was bad last year as they were bottom 20 in the country in yards allowed. They have just three returning starters. On offense, the Blue Raiders are missing their top two running backs, both of whom opted out. Army is 5-1-1 ATS in September the last two seasons. MTSU is 2-5 ATS. Play on ARMY (money line) AAA |
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09-04-20 | White Sox -153 v. Royals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO The White Sox find themselves fighting in a tough three-way battle for first place in the American League Central. An 11-6 win here in Kansas City yesterday allowed them to keep pace with the Indians, whom they trail by just half a game. The White Sox have been one of baseball’s hotter teams the last three weeks, going 13-4 in their last 17 games. As for the Royals, with just 22 games remaining, they are reduced to the role of spoiler for the top three in the division. KC finds itself in last and has lost three in a row, all by 5 runs or more. We don’t see any indication they’ll get off the mat tonight as the starting pitching matchup certainly is not in their favor. For the White Sox, Dane Dunning has a 2.89 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his two starts. The team has won both with the last one coming against Kansas City. Dunning threw five shutout innings in that one and didn’t give up a hit. For the Royals, Brady Singer has a 5.19 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in seven starts and has really been roughed up of late. Singler has allowed four home runs his last three starts. Chicago is now 6-1 this year vs. KC after the win yesterday, 4-0 on the road. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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09-04-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami has seized control of this series and there has been nothing remotely fluky about it. Well, Jimmy Butler getting to shoot a pair of “walkoff” free throws in Game 2 might seem a bit fluky. But remember that situation came after a somewhat improbable late game run by the Bucks. The Heat have held the league’s highest scoring offense to just 109 points per game. Going back to the regular season, they have had Milwaukee’s number, winning four of the five meetings. The only loss came here in the bubble and even then the Heat led that game by 17 at halftime. Miami is now 6-0 ATS in the NBA Playoffs and has allowed 104 points or less in four of those wins. Milwaukee is the East’s #1 seed, but they’ve looked like an inferior side the first two games. Quite frankly, they haven’t looked right this whole time in the bubble. They’re only 5-9-1 ATS with three of the covers coming against Orlando. They are also just 3-8 SU when you take out that first round series. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-04-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -127 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado has been our call each of the last five games and while that hasn’t gone as well as we’d hoped (just 3-2), here we are in a Game 7 Friday night. Though they were down 3-1 in the series, the Avalanche are the better side. Game 5 was the turning point when they delivered a record-breaking five goals in the 1st period. In the last eight games, the Avs have scored six or more goals four different and four or more goals six times. After Dallas went on its own incredible scoring run (26 goals in five games), they have been held to just four the past two games. Game 6, a 4-1 loss, was their lowest scoring of this series. Relative to how they were priced at the beginning of the series, we’re getting a bit of a “bargain” on the Avs in Game 7. They’ve got all the momentum and were always the better side to begin with. They are 15-5 the last 20 games where they allowed two or fewer goals the previous game. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-03-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Vegas suffered a shocking loss in Game 5, falling to Vancouver by a score of 2-1. We had the Canucks on the puck line, but for the second time in this series when doing so, the +1.5 wasn’t even necessary. The Golden Knights have basically been a favorite of -200 or higher every game in the series. So it is a little surprising we’ve gotten all the way to Game 6. It’s tough to imagine Vegas losing two in a row, something they have yet to do while in the bubble. Last time they were off a loss, they bounced back to shut Vancouver out in Game 3. Odds are too high to take the Golden Knights, but we’re definitely confident they bounce back offensively in this one following what was their lowest scoring effort of the series. Since returning from lockdown, they have averaged a very solid 3.5 goals per game (3.2 for this series). Vancouver’s scoring average has come down in this series, but the fact they have scored four or more goals seven times in the bubble cannot be overlooked. The Over is 20-7-1 the L28 times Vancouver has been off a game where it scored two or less goals. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-120 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER While Denver was taken to a 7th game by Utah, a series that just wrapped up Tuesday, let us also not forget the Clippers went six games against the Dallas Mavericks. These teams did meet earlier in the bubble with the Clippers winning 124-111. But they were only four point favorites for that game and trailed by eight at the half. This Game 1 number certainly seems to be inflated as far as we’re concerned. That’s probably due to the two fewer days of rest that Denver and the fact they were just the 12th team in NBA history to win a series in which it trailed 3-1. But Gary Harris is back for them now. Jamal Murray had three straight games of more than 42 points before Game 7 vs. Utah. Twice he went for 50. The Nuggets have covered six of the last nine times they’ve been getting points. The Clippers can be inconsistent, sometimes taking “nights off” and there are scoring issues behind Kawhi Leonard. This is too many points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SOUTHERN MISS So Southern Mississippi is a decided favorite over South Alabama and we can’t say that we’re surprised. South Alabama has won all of five games the previous two seasons and was 2-10 SU in 2019. Head coach Steve Campbell really needs to show improvement in year three. The only problem is he’s got just 11 starters back from a team that wasn’t good in the first place. The Jaguars enter 2020 pretty thin along both lines - offensive and defensive. Southern Miss has gone 28-22 SU in four years under Jay Hopson. QB Abraham is back leading an offense that put up 6.1 yards per play last season. The Golden Eagles have covered five of the last seven games against the Sun Belt, though this is the first-ever meeting with South Alabama. USA did not have a good offense last year. Though they showed signs late, the Jaguars still ended up averaging just 18.4 points/game. We look for Southern Miss to control in the trenches and their pass rush should get after South Alabama QB Trotter. Play on Southern Miss AAA |
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09-03-20 | Felix Auger-Aliassime -170 v. Andy Murray | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* F Auger-Aliassime We’re onto the second round in Flushing Meadow as the 15th-seeded Auger-Aliassime takes on the unranked Andy Murray. Auger-Aliassime got here in four sets over Monteiro, winning 6-3, 6-7, 7-6, 7-6. That three straight sets went into a tiebreak, two of which he won, we’re not bothered in the least. Murray needed five sets to win his Round 1 match with Nishioka and rallied back from two sets down, needing tiebreaks in both the third and fourth just to stay alive. Murray’s best days are long behind him. The U.S. Open is just his second tournament of the year. Surgery has taken away some of his quickness. His opponent is 13 years his junior, faster and in better condition. Auger--Aliassime has a strong serve as well and should easily win this first ever meeting against Murray. Play on Auger-Aliassime AAA |
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09-03-20 | Rangers v. Astros -156 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Texas has been pretty bad this year. Only Boston has a worse run differential. The Rangers come in having been outscored by 58 runs this season. While they’ve been competitive here in Hoston, splitting a pair of one-run decisions, we just don’t like them in this Thursday afternoon matchup. Houston will be sending Zack Greinke to the mound. Greinke has pitched much better than his 3-4 team start record would seem to indicate as his ERA and WHIP are 2.68 and 0.94 respectively. He’s allowed three runs or less every start and hadn’t given up a homer until allowing two to Oakland last week. Texas will send out their ace, Lance Lynn, to oppose Greinke. He’s allowed a HR in five of his last six outings and was roughed up a bit by the Dodgers in the most recent one. The Rangers are just 4-12 so far in road games while being outscored by an average of 2.2 runs/game! Houston is +1.7 rpg over their opponents here at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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09-02-20 | Padres -165 v. Angels | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO San Diego has won 11 of its last 14 games due in no small part to an offense that leads the league with 211 runs scored. Three of the past five games have seen the Padres score 10 or more runs. They are coming off a 6-0 win at Colorado on Monday. Making the Angels task even more difficult tonight is the fact Lamet will be the SD starter. Lamet has allowed two runs or less in six of his seven starts thus far and never more than three. The Angels have never faced him before. Coming off two straight losses where they scored just one run (against Seattle!), this looks to be a really bad matchup for Los Angeles. Teheran is 0-2 with a 9.17 ERA in five games and had been demoted to the bullpen at one point. While San Diego has shined in interleague play thus far (8-2), the Angels have been quite the opposite (1-6). Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets OVER 218.5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It comes down to one game for Oklahoma City and Houston. Winner moves on. The loser goes home. The Rockets won the first two games, 123-108 and 111-98, with Game 1 being our top NBA side selection for all of August. We had the Rockets in Game 2 as well. Game 3 it was time to pivot to the Over, another winner for us, and this time one for Oklahoma City as they prevailed 119-107 in overtime. The next two games we laid off. Game 4 was another close Thunder win, 117-114, then the Rockets bounced back in a major way in Russell Westbrook’s return with a 114-80 win in Game 5. Game 6 saw us “re-enter” the series with a play on the Under. It hit comfortably as it was a 104-100 Thunder win with a total of 223.5. So while the series is tied 3-3, we’re 4-0. Over is the play for Game 7 as neither team has really shot very well the L2 games, something we anticipate will change. The two games with the lowest posted totals both went Over. This will probably close as the 2nd lowest total for any game of the series. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-02-20 | Avalanche -123 v. Stars | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO We’ve been pretty steadfast that Colorado is a better team than Dallas. In fact, we’ve taken them in each of the last four games of this series! While that hasn’t been profitable so far (gone 2-2 and down juice), Game 5 certainly seemed to be a turning point. The Avalanche scored five times in a record-breaking 1st period and won in a rout, 6-3. There’s been a ton of focus (rightly so) on how many goals Dallas has been scoring, but the fact is that the Avs have scored six or more times in four of the last seven games. That includes twice in the last three games. The Avs have outshot the Stars in the series, averaging 36.2 attempts per game. They had 41 in Game 5. Goaltending is now a huge storyline. Of course, Colorado lost Philipp Grubauer to injury in Game 1. Pavel Francouz was ineffective, but the Avs may have found their man in Michael Hutchinson, who made 31 saves in an unexpected start Monday. For Dallas, despite being deemed “unfit to play,” Ben Bishop got the Game 5 nod and it turns out he was indeed “unfit to play” as he gave up four goals before being replaced by Anton Khudobin. Khudobin is no safe bet either as he’d never made a playoff start before this year. As detailed in our writeup for the last game, Dallas’ scoring surge was extremely shocking and unlikely to continue. We’ve taken Colorado each of the last four games. Make it five in a row. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-02-20 | Indians -154 v. Royals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Any time the Indians score a ton of runs, like they did last night, they are a virtual lock to win. Yesterday 10-1 win here in Kansas City improved the Tribe to an amazing 17-2 when scoring at least three runs. With them facing Junis today, we think they’ll easily get to three runs. Junis has allowed at least five runs four of the last five times he’s faced Cleveland. He also has a 1.58 WHIP in his three 2020 starts, none of which have lasted a full five innings. Triston McKenzie has looked great for Cleveland in his two starts, both of which the team has won. He’s allowed just three runs and five hits in 10 innings and has 13 strikeouts. Cleveland is allowing just 2.9 runs/game for the season, the fewest in all of baseball. The Royals have scored just five runs in their last three games and only three in this series. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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09-01-20 | Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VAN +1.5 (PL) We’ve gone 10-1 when playing the puck line in 2020 including a perfect 5-0 since the restart. Opportunities are obviously getting scarce as the playoffs progress with money lines tightening up. But here is a chance to take the Canucks +1.5 when everyone has likely “given up” on them. We didn’t give up on Vancouver in Game 2 when they were coming off a 5-0 loss in the series opener. Now they’ve lost Games 3 and 4 by scores of 3-0 and 5-3. Those games were played on back to back days following three days off due to the protests. Now the Canucks find themselves needing a win to stay alive in this best of seven series. Whether or not they can pull that off remains to be seen but we do like them to at least stay within one goal of the Golden Knights in Game 5. They had the lead going into the third period of Game 4, 2-1, but then gave up three goals in the span of 5:57. The only other time that the Canucks were off two straight losses here in the bubble, they came up big, beating St. Louis 4-3 to take control of the last series. They are 7-2 the L9 times playing on one day’s rest. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers are in a lot better shape than the Dbax right now and that’s why they’re a big favorite to win Tuesday. Los Angeles currently holds the best record in baseball at 26-10 and they are WAY out in front of everyone else with a +90 run differential. Arizona is last in the division with a 14-21 record and has lost 9 of its last 10. With it being highly likely the Dodgers will come up to bat only eight times in this game, we’re predicting an Under. Earlier in the year, these teams played a four game series in Arizona. The Dodgers won three of the games and the Under hit three times as well. The Dbax scored just 10 runs in the four games. They’ve scored no more than two runs in 7 of the last 10 ballgames. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. On the bright side, Young has allowed three runs or less in every start. Urias held the Dbax to two runs and five hits in the earlier series. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | Top | 78-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Bettors (even some sharp ones!) seem content to think that eventually a Denver game is going to go Under the total. It’s happened only one time in the bubble (out of a possible 14 games) and most of the games have gone way Over. Take this series where the six games have averaged 234.3 points/game. Yet oddsmakers keep setting low totals and bettors keep taking the bait. Not us. The only Under for the Nuggets in the bubble required an ugly 87-point effort from them. Other than that, most games have gone Over by double digits. In battling back to force this Game 7, Denver has turned in a bubble-best defensive performance two games in a row, allowing just 107 points in both wins. We don’t trust them to do so again though. Each team has a player (Utah - Mitchell, Denver - Murray) that could set a new NBA record for most points in a playoff series tonight. The Jazz have been pretty bad defensively in the bubble as well. They’ve allowed at least 110 points in all but three games. The Over is 16-5 the last 21 times the Jazz have been off a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-01-20 | Tigers v. Brewers -171 | Top | 12-1 | Loss | -171 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE The Tigers have won five in a row, including a three-game sweep of the Twins over the weekend, and now are 16-16 on the year. Being at .500, even through only 32 games, is a massive achievement for a club that won only 47 of its 161 games played last season while it was outscored by 333 runs. But look for the “good times” to come to an end on Tuesday when the Tigers visit Milwaukee. The five straight wins have all taken place at home. The Brewers, who were home over the weekend and won two of three vs. Pittsburgh, are a team to be trusted in this price range at Miller Park. They’ve won all three times this year as a home favorite of -175 or higher. Michael Fulmer starts for Detroit and that’s a problem. While the team is 3-2 in Fulmer’s five starts thus far, the pitcher has an 8.79 ERA. He’s not exactly putting his team in position to win with zero of his starts lasting longer than three innings. The Tigers have lost 36 of their last 51 series openers. Lindblom should pitch well enough for the home team to win this one. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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09-01-20 | Jannik Sinner v. Karen Khachanov -170 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Khachanov This is a first round match in the U.S. Open Tournament. Khachanov, the 11-seed, should roll against the unseeded Sinner. This is the first ever meeting. Khachanov had a breakthrough 2018, which included a win over Novak Djokovic in the Paris Masters, before suffering through a disappointing 2019. At one point he was ranked as high as 8th in the world. His return to the court last week saw him make the third round of the Western & Southern Open. Sinner has been labeled as an “up and comer” but has never been ranked higher than 68th in the world. He’s currently 74th and has not played since February. This is a good price on the favorite. Play on Khachanov AAA |
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08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -133 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Back on August 16th, the Stars trailed Calgary 4-3 and were 12 seconds away from falling behind in that series 3-1. But then they tied the game, won it, and what has ensued has been a stunning run of goal scoring by a team not known for having a prolific offense. Dallas has won 6 of its last 7 games, scoring 33 goals in the process, and now can eliminate Colorado with yet another win tonight. The absurdity of this scoring outburst by the Stars has to be read to be believed. In what turned out to be the close out game vs. Calgary, they fell behind 3-0 before even getting a shot on goal. They then scored seven straight goals of their own, marking the first time in NHL Playoff history a team won by 3+ goals in a game in which it trailed by 3+ goals. This series has seen them score 4+ goals in every game, but despite having a 3-1 series lead, they have been outshot by a fairly wide margin. The last five games have seen the Stars score on 17.7% of their shot attempts, which is just crazy. While many will point the finger at Avs goalie Pavel Francouz (starting in place of the injured Philipp Grubauer), the fact is they’ve led by two goals in two of the four games. Dallas goalie Khudobin had never made a playoff start before this year and should still be considered unproven. Colorado has scored 4 or more goals 4 times in the last 6 games, so it should be better than 3-3 in that stretch. Look for them to win this do or die game. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-31-20 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 226 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The return of Russell Westbrook led to a very easy Game 5 victory for the Rockets. They won by 34, 114-80, and can now eliminate Westbrook’s former team for good. Westbrook didn’t even do much scoring Saturday. He had just 7 pts in 23 minutes of action. James Harden scored his usual 31 while the Rockets held the Thunder to 31.5% shooting overall and a woeful 7 of 46 on 3-pt attempts. It certainly didn’t help OKC’s cause that they lost Dennis Schroeder in the second quarter to an ejection. He had 19 points at the time he was tossed. While we certainly expect the Thunder to have a better offensive showing here than they did in Game 5, it won’t be enough to send this one Over. There’s been only one game in the series that the Thunder have scored more than 108 in regulation. Even Houston has averaged “only” 113.8 points/game for the series, including the one overtime loss. OKC is 22-10 Under this season with the total at 220 points or higher. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-31-20 | Indians v. Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Indians have done a remarkable job at run prevention this year, leading to the Under cashing in 67% of their games (22-11-1). Not far behind in the Under department is division foe Kansas City (20-12-2 Under) and these teams open up a three-game series on Monday. Before you go thinking Under, note Cleveland did just give up seven runs yesterday in a loss to St. Louis. (The Cardinals were our 10* Game of the Month, by the way). The Tribe had also scored 14 runs of their own in a win Friday. So two of the three games in the last series did go Over. Most Royals totals are higher than this one, which explains their YTD Under mark. Don’t let a pitching matchup of Bieber vs. Keller scare you off either. Bieber’s ERA vs. KC is 4.33. Keller’s last start saw him allow 10 baserunners in only 4 innings as the Royals lost 9-3. Before losing 5-2 to the White Sox on Sunday, the Royals had scored five or more runs in four straight games. It doesn’t take much to go Over a total like this and we think the Indians and Royals will “get there.” Play on OVER AAA |
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08-30-20 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-107 | Win | 101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The Nuggets are one more loss away from their season ending. This was also the case heading into Game 5 which they won 117-107 to stay alive. Before staying alive in Game 5, we took the points with Denver in Game 4 and they also covered the spread there. They are now 5-0 ATS the last two seasons when trailing in a playoff series after covering the last two games. Utah is 5-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this year. They are just 1-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series the last two years. The Jazz have very little to offer offensively other than Donovan Mitchell, something that has become readily obvious in their two SU losses in this series. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-30-20 | Avalanche -130 v. Stars | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Down 0-2 to the Stars in this best of seven, the Avalanche desperately needed to win Game 3. We took the Avs on the money line and they did win, 6-4. We'll take them again in Game 4. Colorado entered this series as a decided favorite, but has lost its starting goalie Philipp Grubauer and all of a sudden Dallas has become some sort of offensive juggernaut, scoring 14 goals in the series. That’s a far cry from when these teams faced off in the round robin and the Avs won 4-0. Interestingly enough, that was with backup Francouz between the pipes. While you could argue that win was an anomaly (it’s had been the only time the Avs had beaten the Stars in seven tries this season, prior to Game 3), we still believe Colorado to be the better team. You can’t forget how they closed out the Arizona series with two straight 7-1 victories. Look for Dallas’ offensive surge to eventually slow down as they’ve been outshot in the series and the Avs have scored six or more goals in three of the last five games themselves. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-30-20 | Indians v. Cardinals +113 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 113 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on STL After getting rocked 14-2 on Friday, the Cardinals played a much closer game against the Indians on Saturday. But as we know, “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.” The Redbirds still lost 2-1, a game that went extra innings, and now face the possibility of being swept in their own ballpark. We think they’ll rise to the occasion Sunday behind Adam Wainwright, whose four starts have gone very well. He has a 2.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. This is a veteran pitcher that knows how to step up in this spot. Solving Cleveland’s pitching is something few teams have been able to do in 2020, but it shouldn’t take many runs for the Cardinals to win this game. The Indians entered the series with the 4th lowest team batting average and they are hitting just .208 on the road. With Civale starting, they are just 3-3 this season and have scored two runs or less in all three losses. The Cardinals are 42-17 L59 after losing the first two games of a series. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 216.5 | Top | 112-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The second round of the NBA Playoffs gets underway Sunday with the Celtics taking on the Raptors. These teams have already met one time in the bubble and the result was an impressive 122-100 beatdown by the Celtics. That’s the only loss by the Raptors since the restart. They swept Brooklyn in the first round, winning three of the four games by double digits including a 150-point effort in the close out. Boston also swept its first round series as they faced an undermanned Philadelphia squad. That series was a bit tighter and certainly lower-scoring as Boston held the Sixers to 106 points or fewer in all four games. We saw what they did to Toronto, holding them to 42.7% shooting (26.3% on 3’s) back on 8.7. These are two of the top defensive teams in the league. The Raptors held the Nets under 100 points in two of the four first round games and below 40% shooting in three of the games. Not to be outdone, Boston has held seven of its last eight opponents under 43% shooting. Gordon Hayward is out for the Celtics while Kyle Lowry could miss this game for the Raptors. The longer than expected layoff should have a negative effect on all remaining shooters. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-30-20 | Twins -200 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -200 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 6* on MINNESOTA Not only have the Tigers won six of their last eight, they surprisingly swept the Twins in a doubleheader Saturday, winning by scores of 8-2 and 4-2. Those losses dropped the Twins, now losers of four straight, out of first place in the Central Division. However, we’ll look for them to bounce back in a major way Sunday as they send Maeda to the hill. Maeda has a 5-1 team start record, 2.21 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. He’s allowed no more than three runs in any of the six starts. In the past, the Twins have been very dominant as a larger road favorite, owning a 14-4 mark the L18 times they’ve been priced at -175 or higher. Detroit is going with Mize on the mound today. He has given up more runs in his two starts then Maeda has given up in his last five. It’s a huge pitching mismatch on Sunday and the Twins offense can remain dormant for only so long. They are 26-14 L40 games vs. the Tigers. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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08-29-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks UNDER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This series is tied 1-1 and both sides have scored five times in their respective victories. Game 1 was a 5-0 Vegas shutout, but Vancouver bounced back to win 5-2 in Game 2 and even things up. It’s time for a lower-scoring Game 3 as the Canucks got those five Game 2 goals on only 27 shots. Their shooting percentage this postseason is a crazy 11.6% and even higher (12.2%) the past five games. They’re averaging 3.2 goals per game in the playoffs on just 27.9 shot attempts. For the frame of reference, Vegas has averaged 3.7 goals on 36.3 shots per game. Both teams scoring rates are due to come down. The Under is 3-1 for the Golden Knights this postseason when the total is 6.0. No Vancouver game has had a total of 6.0 so far. The Under is also 4-0 the last four times Vegas has been off a game where they allowed 5 or more goals. Don’t see either team scoring five goals in Game 3. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-29-20 | Blazers +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland won’t have Damian Lillard as they try and stave off elimination in tonight’s Game 5 against the Lakers. After an 8-2 start to the bubble, they’ve lost three straight games, two of them by 20 or more points. None of the preceding sounds good for tonight. But, predictably, there’s been an overreaction by the oddsmakers here in the wake of the Lillard injury. They had to do it as the public will overwhelmingly bet the Lakers here. But we’re not convinced the line move should have been 7 points. Even without their best player, look for Portland to compete. Beyond its two stars - LeBron and Anthony Davis - the Lakers don’t have much depth, especially in the backcourt. Los Angeles is also a poor three-point shooting team. They made 56.3% of their shots in Game 4, a number they won’t come close to matching tonight. Games 2 and 4 are the only double digit wins the Lakers have in the bubble. The Blazers have some players, notably CJ McCollum, who can step up. They are 4-1 ATS off a double digit loss. We think the extra time between games well help the Blazers adjust to "life without Lillard." Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-29-20 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -131 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona broke its 8-game losing streak last night and did so in convincing fashion, beating the Giants 7-4. They were up 7-1 heading into the ninth in what was also a revenge spot as the Dbax had been swept in San Francisco last weekend. We told you to take the Dbax Friday and the same holds true tonight. While they may not have the same distinct scheduling advantage they held going into yesterday’s game (had Thursday off while SF played a doubleheader) nor is the starting pitching matchup as lopsided, the Dbax remain the play. The Giants had scored only one run in 22 innings before putting a rather meaningless three on the board in the ninth last night. Cahill’s numbers may look good, but he’s walked a lot of batters and hasn’t gone longer than 5 ⅓. He beat Weaver and Arizona in his last start, 6-1, but Weaver actually pitched every bit as well. That was a failure of the Dbax bullpen. We don’t think the Giants are very good. Their recent seven-game win streak was a mirage and Arizona is the better team. Trust us on that. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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08-28-20 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -170 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA Arizona has lost eight in a row. The last three losses were all to the Colorado Rockies, at home and by one run margins. San Francisco had won a season-high seven straight, but was then shut out in both games of a doubleheader yesterday (against the Dodgers). Like every other game in this report, this play is born out of revenge as last weekend saw the Dbax lose three games in SF. They scored only four runs the entire series. But the fact they were off yesterday (protest) while the Giants played twice gives the home team a big advantage in this one as they look to atone for last weekend’s embarrassing performance. Another advantage is having Zac Gallen on the mound for tonight’s opener. Gallen has a 7-1 TSR at Chase Field in his career with a 2.27 ERA. He has 56 strikeouts in those eight starts and has held opposing hitters to an .187 average. Giants starter Anderson has started four times on the road this year and has a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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08-28-20 | Pirates v. Brewers -185 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE Revenge is going to be the “commonality” in this 3-game report Friday and we start with a Milwaukee team that suffered an embarrassing three-game sweep last weekend in Pittsburgh. Sweeping that series accounts for 33% of the Pirates’ wins this season! They are just 6-19 otherwise and that’s even including the fact they’ll come into this series on a two-game win streak. Both of those wins came Thursday in a doubleheader sweep of St. Louis. Milwaukee also played in a doubleheader yesterday, although they lost both games to Cincinnati. Despite how the last seven days have gone, the Brewers still remain decided favorites for this rematch from last weekend as they should. We just can’t see them losing as a big favorite to Pittsburgh a fourth straight time. Though he did pitch well in last weekend’s series, Holland still has an 8.04 ERA and 1.72 WHIP his last three starts for the Bucs. Milwaukee’s Burnes has started three times, all on the road, and has a 3.29 ERA. Pittsburgh is 0-6 so far this season as a road underdog of +175 to +250. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-28-20 | Mets v. Yankees -141 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -141 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES This play is on the first game of today’s doubleheader, which was necessitated by last weekend’s cancellations due to positive COVID tests within the Mets clubhouses. Even though both of today’s games are being played at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees will be the designated home team for only this first game. Both games are also only seven innings due to this year’s rules on doubleheaders. That the Yankees come up to bat last in this first game has little to do with why we are taking them. It’s more so that they enter as the more desperate team as they are on a five-game losing streak. Yesterday was always going to be an off-day for them. Meanwhile, the Mets (along with the Marlins) walked off the field for their scheduled game Thursday in protest. The Yankees are 10-4 at home so far and the fact they are coming off a “normal” off day gives them the advantage. They are averaging 6.3 runs/game in this ballpark, so whether they come up to bat first or last is really immaterial. Also important is that starter Montgomery’s team start record at home is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The Mets are starting Wacha, whose numbers are not good (6.43 ERA, 1.64 WHIP), and the team is 0-3 so far as a road dog of +125 to +175. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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08-26-20 | Avalanche -138 v. Stars | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Down 0-2 to the Stars in this best of seven, the Avalanche desperately need to win Game 3 and we think they’ll come through. Colorado entered this series as a decided favorite, but has lost its starting goalie Philipp Grubauer and all of a sudden Dallas has become some sort of offensive juggernaut, scoring five times in both wins. That’s a far cry from when these teams faced off in the round robin and the Avs won 4-0. For the record, that was with backup Francouz between the pipes. Maybe that was an anomaly as it’s the only time the Avs have beaten the Stars in seven meetings this season. But we’re willing to look past that head to head record as we still believe Colorado to be the better team. You can’t forget they closed out the Arizona series with two straight 7-1 victories. Look for Dallas’ sudden offensive surge to slow down as they’ve been outshot in both games (40-27 in Game 2) and the Avs are 6-0 the last six times they’ve been off a loss by 3 goals or more. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-25-20 | Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VANCOUVER +1.5 Game 1 probably couldn’t have gone much worse for the Canucks as they lost 5-0 to the Golden Knights. Despite taking the Knights ourselves, even we were taken aback by how one-sided the game got. But now we expect the Canucks to bounce back in Game 2 and at least keep the score within one goal. Prior to being blown out in Game 1, Vancouver had won 7 of 9 games with just one loss in regulation. Vegas has four one-goal victories in the bubble and won two other games in which they trailed by at least two goals. It can be argued that Game 1 was the Knights best game since the restart. It was certainly Vancouver’s worst effort. The Canucks were also shut out in their first game (3-0 by Minnesota) but then came back to win the next five. That they have never beaten Vegas in regulation all-time is pretty shocking. They have won Game 2 in both previous series. Expect a much closer Game 2 with Vancouver possibly pulling the upset. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5 AAA |
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08-25-20 | Mariners v. Padres -169 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -169 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 7* on SAN DIEGO This is a complete mismatch. San Diego is 18-12 at the halfway mark and the hottest team in baseball, having won seven in a row. They just swept the Astros. While Seattle also swept its last series, that was against a bad Texas team. The Mariners were only 8-19 on the year before that sweep. Still with one of the worst run differentials in either league (-38), Seattle just isn’t capable of beating a quality opponent like the Padres, who are already 7-0 against the American League this season. The Mariners had one other three-game win streak this year. Not only did they lose their next time out, they proceeded to lose 14 of the next 17 games. Chris Paddack toes the rubber here for San Diego and he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home where the team has gone 10-4. Marco Gonzalez has pitched well for Seattle but Tuesday’s starter is going to have to deal with the Padres offense that has averaged 8.0 runs/game during its win streak. It seems unlikely Gonzalez will pitch well tonight. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 236 | Top | 111-154 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Luka Doncic didn’t just play in Game 4, he dominated with an incredible stat line of 43-17-13 and hit the game winner in overtime to tie this series up at 2-2. The last three games, two of which were Dallas wins, have gone Over the total. Game 4 would have gone Over even without the extra period. The wild swings we saw in that game - with the Clippers leading by as many as 21 in the second quarter and the Mavs by as many as 12 in the third quarter - probably aren’t going to take place tonight. In fact, we’re anticipating a slightly more “defensive affair” even though the O/U line has hit the high point of the series. That’s an obvious reflection on the previous three games, but it’s also giving us some value. The Clippers are 11-3 Under this season after scoring 130 or more points in their previous game. Dallas has shot 50% or better in each of the last three games, which seems unlikely to continue given the Clippers are a solid defensive team. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -150 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado didn’t see Dallas coming in Game 1. They were blitzed early, as they allowed three goals in the first period, and could never catch up (lost 5-3). Now the favored Avalanche find themselves in a bit of a must win against a team they’ve only beaten once in six tries this season. That one time was 4-0 in the round robin round though and it’s fair to say the Avs are the better team here, despite the recent surge in scoring by the Stars. Colorado has lost goalie Grubauer to a groin injury, but it’s interesting to note that it was his backup (Francouz) that was between the pipes for the aforementioned 4-0 shutout earlier this month. The Avs are 15-6 after allowing 4 or more goals in the previous game and 21-12 in revenge spots this year. They have yet to lose two straight in the bubble where they have outshot opponents by a considerable margin. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-24-20 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It wasn’t a good weekend for either of these two National League Central clubs. The Reds lost three of four in St. Louis while Milwaukee got swept in Pittsburgh. The Reds have managed to score just 10 runs in the last five games and were shut out twice. The Brewers have scored all of 12 runs in their last four games. Expect this to be a low-scoring opener with Bauer pitching for Cincy. He has a 0.68 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in four starts, placing him among the very best starters in the league. Bauer has allowed just two runs so far and has worked 26 ⅓ innings. On August 7th, he held Milwaukee to one run and three hits in six innings and had 12 strikeouts. Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson hasn’t been nearly as dominant, but he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his four starts in 2020. With two struggling lineups and Bauer starting this should be quite the easy Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-24-20 | Bucks -13.5 v. Magic | Top | 121-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE While Orlando did pull the upset in Game One, things have quickly (and predictably) swung in Milwaukee’s favor in this series. Now the top-seeded Bucks can take a commanding 3-1 series advantage and there’s really no doubt in our minds that will happen. They are of course big favorites to beat the Magic in Game Four Monday afternoon and why wouldn’t they be? The last two games have seen them hold halftime advantages of 21 and 27 points. The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game Three, an uber-efficient performance where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 pts on 12 of 14 shooting. The Magic are short-handed and have covered only 4 of their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series and while this is a lot of points to lay, they are just that much better than their opponents here. This series likely ends in five games and Milwaukee will win big today. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-23-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -172 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VEGAS Vegas earned the top spot in the Western Conference by sweeping through their three round robin games. Then they got here to the conference semifinals by easily dispatching the 12th seeded Chicago Blackhawks in five games. The opponent is the Vancouver Canucks, who eliminated Minnesota in four games in the qualification round then defending Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis in six games in the last round. Both Pacific Division teams are hot entering this series. Vegas is 7-1 SU in the bubble while Vancouver has won 7 of its last 9. But we’ve got to side with the Golden Knights in Game 1 as they’ve played tremendous hockey since the restart. They are dominating possession while averaging 3.7 goals/game. The Canucks are averaging 3.4 goals/game, but on far less shot attempts and it’s going to be difficult to maintain that shot percentage. Vancouver’s possession numbers aren’t as good as they’re being outshot by about 7.0 per game. The Canucks are just 2-8 SU in their 10 games vs. Vegas, both wins coming after regulation.. They are a young team that hasn’t been in the conference semis since 2011. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 103 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Nuggets have quickly gone from favorites to underdogs in this series as they’ve lost the last two games by a combined 56 points. If that sounds bad, well it is. But it's not over yet for Denver as they did win Game 1 (in overtime) and a win here would even the series back up. You have to think the Nuggets are going to shoot better than they did in Game 3. They made just 37.5% of their total attempts including only 12 of 38 three-pointers. The big story was the return of Mike Conley for Utah as he made seven threes on his way to a 27-point game. The Jazz have been somewhat inconsistent on offense during their time in the bubble as they definitely miss 2nd leading scorer Bogdanovic. Now it's Denver hoping for a return (Gary Harris) on Sunday as they look to move to 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been trailing in a playoff series. Utah is just 4-15-2 ATS the last 21 times it has been a favorite and they’re just 2-6 ATS coming off an ATS win. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-23-20 | Brewers -160 v. Pirates | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -160 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee has yet to find success in this series, which is somewhat shocking when you consider who the opponent is. Pittsburgh came in with the worst record in MLB, but has now won two straight for the 1st time all season. Still, even with two convincing victories (7-2 and 12-5), the Pirates have the National League’s worst run differential at -32. This afternoon they’ll send Brubaker to the hill and he’s yet to go longer than three innings in two starts. He allowed three runs in both so it’s a 9.00 ERA for him. Milwaukee’s Burnes has a 2.16 ERA in his two starts, both of which have seen him allow just 1 ER. Yesterday was the most runs scored by the Pirates in a win all season. Burnes is 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA in 12 career appearances vs Pittsburgh, all in relief. We see Pittsburgh resorting back to their previous ways and Milwaukee avoiding the sweep. Christan Yelich has to break out of his 1 for 22 slump, right? Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-22-20 | Diamondbacks -154 v. Giants | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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08-22-20 | Lakers v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND After upsetting the Lakers in Game 1, Portland got run out of the gym in Game 2. They were down 30 after three quarters and lost 111-88 in what was easily their worst showing in the NBA bubble. Previous to that, the Blazers had lost only twice and those two losses were by a total of nine points. After scoring at least 124 in all but one seeding game, they’ve been held to an average of 94 points/game by the Lakers. We like them to bounce back in Game 3 and at the very least keep it close. Game 2 aside, the Lakers have not played all that well in the bubble as they are just 2-8 against the spread with six outright defeats. Offensive efficiency is way down, especially when LeBron James is off the court. They have just two wins by more than three points since the restart and have failed to hit 100 four different times. A second straight blowout seems unlikely, so grab the points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-22-20 | Tigers v. Indians -157 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 8* on CLEVELAND Cleveland fell prey to one big inning last night as Detroit scored 7 runs in the top of the 4th. Really, it was one pitch that did them in, that being a grand slam hit by Tigers rookie Isaac Paredas. That erased what had been a 5-0 Indians lead and the 10-5 final score marked the first time the Tribe has lost this year when scoring at least three runs. They were 13-0 when scoring 3 or more previous to that! The loss also ended their 20-game win streak over the Tigers. Expect Cleveland to bounce back though as Saturday finds them sending out highly touted prospect Triston McKenzie, who will be making his big league debut. McKenzie is the latest addition to a staff that is allowing a MLB-low 2.9 runs/game and a .210 opponents’ batting average. No matter how he performs, it’s likely to be better than Detroit’s Matthew Boyd, who has an unsightly 9.64 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in five starts. Boyd has allowed seven home runs his past three starts and has yet to go more than five innings in any start this season. Classic bounce back for Cleveland. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 222.5 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Neither team has shot all that well in the first two games. That has to be somewhat terrifying for the Thunder as they’re down 0-2 in this series and facing an uphill climb. We’ve had the Rockets in both games with Game 1 being our top NBA release for the month. That one saw them breeze coast to coast to a 123-108 win. Things were a bit closer in Game 2 as they only won 111-98 and it was a lot closer for much of the 4th Quarter. The Rockets only shot 41.8% and James Harden had only 21 points. We expect more offense out of Houston today. Same with Oklahoma CIty, who had only 39 points after halftime in Game 2. The Over is 9-3-1 their last 13 games after a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-22-20 | Brewers -161 v. Pirates | Top | 5-12 | Loss | -161 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE It was all set up to be a great weekend for Milwaukee as they were facing the team with the worst record in the league. But they lost 7-2 to the Pirates Friday night, a result which should not sit well with the Brewers. Fortunately for them, they are 8-4 off a loss this year while Pittsburgh is 0-4 off a win. The Pirates have been hammered in those four games too; giving up a total of 34 runs to the opposition. Be prepared to see them give up a lot more this evening as Derek Holland and his 8.26 ERA takes the mound. Holland gave up five home runs in his last start and the Pirates lost 11-5 to Detroit. Holland did face off with the Brewers in his first start of 2020 and while that ended up being an 8-6 Pittsburgh win (as +170 underdogs), he did not factor into the decision. Milwaukee will counter with Lindblom, who started opposite Holland in that 8-6 game last month. But since then, Lindblom has struck out a career-high eight batters in back to back starts. The Brewers are 8-2 their L10 games at PNC Park. A Pirates team that has scored just 85 runs in 22 games can’t be trusted to win two in a row. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-21-20 | Tigers v. Indians -170 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -170 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND The Indians have taken advantage of a soft schedule (Detroit and Pittsburgh) to win six in a row. They’ve swept the last two series and are now an amazing 12-0 this season in games where they score at least three runs. Yesterday, they needed only two runs in a shutout win over Pittsburgh. That was their MLB-leading 5th shutout of 2020 and no team has allowed fewer runs this season (just 66 in 25 games). Not only did Cleveland sweep last weekend’s series with Detroit, they’ve beaten them 20 consecutive times! So facing them a second straight weekend has to have them overjoyed, especially seeing as Detroit has now lost nine in a row overall and was shut out yesterday in Chicago. The Indians had their best offensive series of the year against the Tigers last weekend by scoring 21 runs in three games. Tigers starter Fulmer has a 7.55 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in his three starts and lasted less than three innings when he faced Cleveland last week. The Tribe goes with Adam Plutko, who hasn’t been their strongest starter, but he’s never lost to Detroit (4-0) in nine appearances, six of them starts. The most recent was against Fulmer last week. All signs point to a Cleveland blowout tonight. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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08-21-20 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH -1.5 Despite enduring a COVID-19 outbreak just as the season was getting underway, Miami ended up winning 7 of its first 8 games. They’ve since gone 2-8 with yesterday’s game against the Mets being postponed due to two positive (COVID) tests in the Mets organization. Thus it marked the first time in six days where the Marlins DIDN’T lose (lost 5 in a row overall). Today they’re in Washington D.C. and the losing should continue as they face a Nationals team that has their number. The Nats went 15-4 vs. Miami last year and were 13-4 against them the season before that. Washington also had Thursday off, but unlike the Marlins, it was a scheduled off-day. They’ve actually been off for two days as Wednesday’s game vs. Atlanta was rained out. We look for the Nationals to come out strong and take this series opener rather easily. Pat Corbin gets the start and he was 3-0 vs. Miami last season with a 1.55 ERA in four starts. He limited them to a .165 batting average while striking out 29 and walking just five. As of now, Miami is scheduled to go with Eliser Hernandez. But they could change to rookie Daniel Castano. Either way, the Nationals win. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 218.5 | Top | 87-124 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
This is 10* on OVER People seem willing to keep trying to bet on the Nuggets’ Over streak ending. But as long as the number is this low, it won’t be happening anytime soon. In case you were unaware, Denver has gone Over in all 10 of its games inside the bubble. Most of those have gone Over by a lot. The fewest number of total points scored in a Nuggets game since the restart is 226. They have averaged 242.3 points/game. That’s with some overtime mixed in, but still there was only one game that would have stayed Under in regulation. Game 2 vs. the Jazz was a 124-105 loss. The Nuggets have now allowed at least 124 points in every game but two. Utah happens to be averaging 124.5 points/game in Orlando while at the same time giving up 120 points/game. The Jazz have shot nearly 50% overall in the two games of this series so far while the Nuggets have made more than half their three-pointers. There is no reason to believe this amount of scoring won’t continue. Denver is 10-3 Over this season off a double digit loss. Utah is 6-1 Over if they won their last game straight up as an underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-20-20 | Diamondbacks v. A's -143 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND After losing both games in Arizona, the A’s bounced back last night with a 4-1 win here in Oakland. The A’s had won four in a row coming into this series with the Diamondbacks and have really played as well as anybody in 2020. At 17-8, they’ve got the best record in the American League. While Arizona saw a six-game win streak end yesterday, the truth of the matter is they hadn’t been playing all that well before that streak. Three of those six wins were by one run. Take away that six game win streak and Arizona is only 7-12 this year while getting outscored by 29 runs. Manaea is winless in five starts for Oakland but should get that elusive first victory tonight. Ten of the A’s 17 wins this year have come at home. Arizona has just five road wins and is 1-5 vs. lefty starting pitchers. Young is starting for only the second time and the only reason he’s in the rotation is because Madison Bumgarner is injured. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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08-20-20 | Blazers +7 v. Lakers | Top | 88-111 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland shocked a lot of people by beating the Lakers 100-93 in Game 1, but not us. This team came into the bubble needing to win almost every game and that’s exactly what they have done. They’ve gone 8-2 in their 10 games with the only two losses coming by a combined nine points. That the Blazers were able to win Game 1 despite a poor offensive night has to scare the Lakers. Portland shot just 39.2% Tuesday night, a far cry from the multiple 124+ point efforts we’ve seen from them in Orlando. As for the Lakers, they are 1-8 ATS in the bubble and struggling to make shots. They haven’t even hit 100 four different times. Their shooting percentage and offensive efficiency, particularly when LeBron James is off the court, has been woeful. We just don’t see how LA is going to win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here, if they even win at all tonight. Besides James and Anthony Davis, the rest of the Lakers combined for just 42 points on 32.1% shooting in Game 1. Since the restart, the top seed has ONE win by more than three points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-20-20 | Rangers v. Padres -172 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO Texas has been no match for San Diego in this series with the Padres taking all three games so far. The first two were playing in Arlington and made headlines when Fernando Tatis swung on a 3-0 count and hit a grand slam (upset people for some reason). It took an extra inning last night but the Padres still ended up winning 6-3 and now they get to go for the sweep with what looks to be a huge pitching edge. Lamet has a 1.59 ERA/0.81 WHIP through five starts and has looked great. He’s allowed only six runs in 28+ innings, which means trouble for a Texas club that comes in hitting just .214 on the year. The Rangers are giving up lots of runs too, 6.0/game on the road, thanks largely to a bullpen whose ERA is now 8.26 away from home. Starter Kyle Gibson has a 1.48 WHIP and the team is 1-3 in his four starts. With last night’s game decided on a walkoff grand slam, we can’t imagine Texas has much left in the tank. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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08-20-20 | Islanders v. Capitals -110 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Back on Tuesday, we projected that the Capitals would stay alive and they did, beating the Islanders 3-2 in Game 4 of this best of seven series. They won despite falling behind 2-0 early. Obviously, down 3-1 in the series, there’s a lot more work to be done. But we again believe this talented team will live to fight another day. This series has seen Washington get outshot by a fairly decent margin. While that’s not something you want to see, they did just score three goals for the first time since the restart and Alex Ovechkin had two of them.That’s enough to convince us that the Caps aren’t going to simply roll over here. Ovechkin and TJ Oshie are the only Caps to have scored in this series, but Backstrom seems ready to return. Washington was the favorite in this series for a reason. The Islanders are just 3-11 their last 14 games as an underdog. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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08-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston was our Game of the Month on Tuesday and they came through with flying colors, clobbering Oklahoma City by a score of 123-108 and it wasn’t even that close as the Rockets led by 21 going into the fourth. This despite not having the services of Russell Westbrook, but we projected James Harden to have a big game and that’s exactly what happened as “The Beard” delivered a 37-point effort. He’s certainly capable of scoring even more than that and we think he will in Game 2. Even without Westbrook, Houston is the better team here. The Thunder overachieved both before and after the restart, but this could be a quick series if they’re not careful. You’ll notice that OKC is now the underdog after opening as the slightest favorite for Game 1. While priced more appropriately, we still don’t like the Thunder’s chances in this one as Gallinari had a career-high 29 points in Game 1 and that didn’t matter. His chances of matching that number this afternoon are slim at best. The Rockets are simply the better team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-19-20 | Astros -160 v. Rockies | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston was able to squeak out another one on Tuesday, this time defeating the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in 11 innings. That was the Astros sixth straight win and they’ve allowed two runs or less in every game! In fact, they’ve allowed just seven runs total during the win streak. The last four wins have all been by one run margins, meaning they’re not scoring very many runs either, but that should change Wednesday as they pay a visit to Coors Field. Having beaten the Rockies each of the last two days (in Houston), the ‘Stros have plenty of confidence coming into this one. They should, plus there’s Framber Valdez starting. Valdez has a 2.08 ERA and is coming off two straight quality starts. The Rockies have lost five of six and their bullpen has been horrendous at home, posting a 7.23 ERA as well as a 1.70 WHIP. Their starting pitcher for this game will be Castellani, who’s made two decent starts thus far but against weaker lineups than the one he’ll see tonight. The Astros are 10-3 their last 13 games where the total is set at 11.0 or higher. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-19-20 | Indians -162 v. Pirates | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND Cleveland needed an extra inning to outlast Pittsburgh last night, 6-3. They led 3-1 going into the bottom of the fifth, which is when the Pirates were able to tie the game up. But a three-run HR from Carlos Santana effectively ended things in the top of the 10th as the Indians moved to a perfect 11-0 this season when scoring three runs or more. Pittsburgh has only four wins all year as they’ve got the worst record in baseball. Furthermore, they’ve allowed almost double the number of runs Cleveland has. No club has given up fewer runs than the Indians’ 65 this year and the story shouldn’t change Wednesday when they send Civale to the hill. He’s gone at least six innings in all four of his starts. Don’t be fooled by the 0.00 ERA from Pittsburgh’s starter Brault. He’s pitched a total of only seven innings all year. The Indians have gone 6-1 as road favorites of -125 to -175 and are clearly rolling now with 9 wins in the last 12 games overall. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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08-19-20 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Philadelphia lost Game 1 109-101 and failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. All told, it wasn’t that disappointing a performance as the Sixers led going into the 4th quarter. That is when they went cold. The good news is they held Boston to just 42% shooting and it took every bit of Jayson Tatum’s career playoff highs of 32 points and 13 rebounds to get the Celtics the ‘W.’ While the 76ers are without Ben Simmons, they still should compete in this series and we like them plus the points in Game 2. Late in Game 1, Gordon Hayward suffered a severe ankle sprain, meaning Boston will be without him for likely four weeks. That’s a big loss. The Celtics are not a deep team. Including Hayward, they have just six players that rate better than average in terms of RPM. They are just 1-4 ATS off the last five ATS wins and we’re going “zig zag” here. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-19-20 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -149 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON Boston stormed back to take Game 4 by a count of 4-3 on Monday and now leads Carolina 3-1 in this best of seven series. They go for the “kill” on Wednesday and given how the last game played out, the series is ripe for the taking. The Hurricanes led 2-0 with just under 12 minutes to go. The Bruins then scored four times in the next seven minutes to completely change the direction of the series. Boston finished the game with a 33-19 edge in shots, so they deserved to win. They have just crushed Carolina when it comes to shots in the series, holding a +44 edge. They have outshot them by at least 9 in all four games. In addition, the Bruins have taken 13 of the past 15 matchups head to head. With Tuukka Rask gone, there was concern over whether or not there’d be a drop off in the crease for Boston. There hasn’t been as Jaroslav Halak’s numbers have been every bit as good as Rask’s. It can’t be stressed enough that Boston had the most points in the league when the season was stopped in March. They are 40-16 L56 off a win. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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08-19-20 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning -170 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY We’ve taken Tampa Bay in each of the last two games and they’ve delivered. Now they have a shot to eliminate Columbus for good and finally erase the painful memory of what happened in the first round of last year’s playoffs. That history-making sweep is the furthest thing from the Blue Jackets’ minds right now as they are just thinking one win at a time. Problem is, they are gassed. This was discussed in our Game 4 analysis. To rehash, Columbus had to play a tough five-game series against Toronto in the qualification round and a 5OT loss in Game 1 of this series was exactly what they DIDN’T need. Now had the Lightning lost that game, this would be a much different series. Columbus did outshoot Tampa Bay for the first time in the series in Game 4 (29-22) but were pretty much doomed once they fell into a two-goal hole. The Blue Jackets have been outshot in all but three games in the bubble and you have to think Tampa feels pretty good about itself being that they’re 5-2 and have yet to score more than three goals in any game here in Toronto. Of course, neither has Columbus. The problem for the Blue Jackets is that the Lightning are 47-9 their L56 after scoring two goals or less the last game. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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08-18-20 | Brewers v. Twins -163 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA Minnesota is another American League team off to a good start as they are 15-8 and tied with the Yankees for the best run differential at +38. They come into this series having won each of the last three days, same as Milwaukee, but the Brewers are just 10-10 on the year. While Milwaukee should feel good about itself having just beaten the Cubs three straight times, every win was by one run. They’ve still been outscored by 12 runs this season. Don’t see them solving Kenta Maeda who is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in four starts. Maeda has gone at least six inning in each of his last three starts and allowed a combined five runs. Burnes made it to only the fourth inning in his only start for Milwaukee (went 3 ⅓). Maeda has a 2.94 ERA in six career starts vs. the Brewers. The Twins have scored 32 more runs than the Brewers. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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08-18-20 | Capitals +100 v. Islanders | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON This is it for the Caps, who are down 0-3 in this best of seven series. We did not see them being in this position. Few did. Washington was leading the Metropolitan Division back in March. Upon restarting, they lost two of three games in the round robin. But they still were the 3-seed and facing an Islanders team that had not really been tested in its qualification series vs. Florida. However, it’s the Isles that have looked the part of the better team here. They’ve outshot Washington 75-53 in 5v5 play, allowing just two goals. Still, it would be quite foolish to write off the Capitals at this point. We already saw one (Chicago) facing elimination and a 3-0 series deficit stay alive by winning Game 4. After six straight games of two goals or less, you have to think the Capitals are due for a break out game offensively. This is a team whose season long average is still 3.3 goals/game, one of the best in the league. They’ve gone from a -135 money line favorite in Game 1 to a slight underdog here in Game 4. We’ll grab the value. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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08-18-20 | Thunder v. Rockets +1.5 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 103 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston will be without Russell Westbrook for an indefinite period of time, but let’s not forget that Harden fellow and what he’s capable of doing. The Rockets did lose their last three games, but really had nothing to play for and that should be taken into account. Before that, they’d started the bubble 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Oklahoma City went 4-4 in its eight games as well, albeit in much different fashion. They alternated wins and losses the entire way, meaning not one time did they win OR lose back to back games. They are hoping that pattern continues as it would mean a win here. But we feel differently as the Rockets are being undervalued because of the Westbrook absence. Certainly that matters, but Harden has averaged 35.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists in the bubble with a 53.2 FG%. Two other Rockets have had 40+ point games this year, one of the Austin Rivers’ whose career-high 41 point effort came in the bubble. Houston has enough to get the job done and Oklahoma City hasn’t really had all of its pieces together here in Orlando with Schroeder missing time and Adams hurt. Chris Paul has a hand injury worth monitoring as well. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-18-20 | A's -147 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -147 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland is doing quite well for itself as they’ve started 16-7. They’d won five in a row before yesterday’s 4-3 loss to Arizona, which was the Diamondbacks’ fifth straight win themselves. But the difference is Arizona is only 12-11 and has a -15 run differential on the season. The starting pitching matchup for Tuesday heavily tilts in the A’s favor as Montas has a 3-1 TSR with a 1.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while Weaver has a 11.86 ERA, 2.123 WHIP and is winless in his four starts. Going back to last season, Oakland is 11-2 in Montas’ last 13 starts. Weaver has yet to go more than four innings in any start in 2020 and has already allowed 7 home runs. Note Oakland has scored 38 runs its previous four games before losing in the 9th last night. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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08-18-20 | Giants v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 102 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Angels definitely can’t be trusted to get the job done, even in this price range, but we can expect a high-scoring game against the Giants Tuesday afternoon. LA’s last five games have all gone Over with 11 or more total runs scored every time. Thus far, when they’re at home, Angels’ games have averaged 12.3 runs/game. The Giants come in having allowed 7.7 runs/game over their last seven contests, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. They are allowing 6.3 runs/game for the season. While the Angels do have their best pitcher - Dylan Bundy - going tonight, they and the Giants both have terrible bullpens. In just the last five games, the Giants’ pen has gone 0-4 with a 12.19 ERA and has given up 29 runs in 20 ⅓ innings. Angels’ relievers aren’t much better with a near identical home ERA/WHIP to what the Giants have on the road. Trevor Cahill starts today for SF. This is his 1st start of the year after a fingernail issue. Expect him to struggle. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-17-20 | Rockies v. Astros -150 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. For the Astros, Bielak has a 1.80 ERA in two starts, both of which came versus NL West teams! Traditionally, the Rockies are not a very good road team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-17-20 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. Both teams are averaging more than 5.0 runs per game. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Dallas is just 3-5 since the restart while the Clippers have gone 5-3. It’s a tough break that a team as talented as the Mavericks fell to the 7-seed and drew a first round matchup with Los Angeles. But it is also a bit of a “tough draw” for the Clippers. The Mavs are one of the top offensive teams in the league and pose a threat that other potential first round opponents (like Utah or Oklahoma City) would not have. These teams met on August 6th and while LA won 126-111, it was a tie game with just over six minutes remaining. That’s with the Clippers shooting exceptionally well and the Mavs having an “off game” at the offensive end. Luka Doncic is averaging a triple double in the bubble with 32 points/game. The Mavericks have averaged 125 points/game since returning and that makes them a “tough out” as an underdog. The spread was only 3.5 when these teams met 11 days ago. Nothing has really changed significantly for either side since then, so the dog screams VALUE. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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08-17-20 | Lightning -153 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay got a much needed win in Game 3. They had our endorsement and never trailed en route to their second 3-2 victory of the series. They outshot the Blue Jackets 2:1 (34-17) and concerning for Columbus is whether or not the team may have “run out of gas.” Coach John Tortorella seemed to think so based on his post-game comments. Remember that the Blue Jackets have already gone through a five-game qualification series as well as the 5OT marathon in Game 1. Up 2-1 in the series, the Lightning have confidence against the team that pulled off that shocking sweep in last year’s playoffs. They have outshot Columbus in every game so far. To that point, the Blue Jackets have been outshot in six of their eight games since the restart. They had only eight shots on goal over the last 50 minutes of Game 3. While they had Sunday off, that’s probably not enough to recharge. Undervalued because of what happened in last year’s playoffs, the Lightning win again and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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08-16-20 | Blues v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Blues have still not won a game since the restart. This is a far cry from last season’s run to the Stanley Cup when they caught fire in January and never looked back. When the season stopped, they did have the most points in the Western Conference. But by losing all three round robin games, they fell to the 4-seed for the playoffs. They’re now in an 0-2 hole to upstart Vancouver and tonight is about as “must win” as you can get from the St. Louis side of things. But not sure we can trust them in this spot given the lack of life we’ve seen so far. The Blues are averaging just 2.2 goals on 27.8 shots per game. Vancouver is averaging a similar number of shots per game (actually less, 27.2) but has somehow parlayed that into 3.5 goals per game. We don’t see St. Louis turning things around tonight (not at the offensive end at least) while Vancouver can keep up its current scoring clip. Blues are 6-1 Under on Sundays this season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-16-20 | Dodgers -175 v. Angels | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on LAD The Dodgers are clearly too much for the Angels and can finish off the sweep this afternoon. Last night’s game went 10 innings after the Dodgers tied it late. This one should go smoother behind Dustin May, who has twice gone off as a favorite of -200 or more, so this is a good price on him. The Dodgers, as was to be expected, have been very dominant this season. They’ve scored 55 more runs than they have allowed. No other team has a run diff of better than +33 and only two (Yankees, Twins) are better than +20. While the Dodgers have won four in a row, the Angels have lost three straight. Teheran is not well-suited to start in this spot, not just because of the 13.49 ERA and 2.36 WHIP, but also due to the fact he has never beaten the Dodgers in eight tries and has a 5.35 ERA against them. This is a very one-sided matchup as the Dodgers are already 7-2 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-16-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -130 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO So Texas pitching has had virtually zero problems adjusting to Coors Field this weekend. Friday saw starter Lance Lynn throw a complete game and it was just the eighth time in the history of this park that a team was held to two hits or fewer over a full nine-inning game. The Rockies did a bit better at the plate on Saturday, but still ended up wasting an early 2-0 lead and lost 6-4. The Rangers have won a season-high four straight, which is a bit perplexing to us as this has not been a good road team the last few seasons and they’re still -2.0 rpg outside of Arlington this year. The Rockies are 12-8 and have outscored teams by 19 runs this year while Texas is 10-9 but has been outscored by 11 runs. Look for the home team to avoid the sweep Sunday behind Jon Gray. Gray was hit hard his last time out, but should bounce back here as the Rangers are only hitting .217 for the year. He is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA (39.0 IP, 8 ER) in six career interleague starts at Coors Field, limiting American League batters to a .159 average. Allard has looked pretty good for Texas but has never pitched at Coors before. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-16-20 | Stipe Miocic v. Daniel Cormier OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 204 h 48 m | Show |
8* ON OVER 2.5 ROUNDS This is the rubber match for the UFC Heavyweight Championship of the World. Both have a TKO victory over the other. Miocic had the more recent of the two, thus he opened as the slight favorite here, though those odds have flipped as of press time. That fight took place almost one year ago to the day with Miocic regaining the very title he lost to Cormier back in July of ‘18 at UFC 226. Those are Stipe’s only two fights of the previous two years. Cormier has said he’s retiring, win or lose, after this fight although that’s something we’ve heard from him before. The first fight between the two saw Cormier end things in Round 1. The rematch went to the 4th round. Before losing the title back to Miocic, Cormier did have a successful title defense in November of 2018 against Derrick Lewis, which he won via rear-naked choke in Round 2. What’s amazing about the first two fights is neither has been able to execute more than one successful takedown. That being said, all we need here is the fight to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2 and we think that’s going to happen. Two of Miocic’s last three fights made it to the “Championship Rounds.” Meanwhile, five of Cormier’s last eight have gotten to the point that would be a winning ticket here. 8* on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS AAA |
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08-15-20 | Junior Dos Santos v. Jair Rozenstruik -150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 203 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ROZENSTRUIK This isn’t the heavyweight battle everyone’s coming to see Saturday at UFC 252 (that would be the title fight of Miocic vs. Cormier), but it’s our favorite call of the year inside the Octagon. Rozenstruik enjoyed a breakout 2019 campaign by finishing Junior Albini, Allen Crowder, Andrei Arlovski & Alistair Overeem, all by KO, two of which came in Round 1. The Overeem knockout came with just four seconds left in a fight Rozenstruik may have otherwise lost. Unfortunately, “lady luck” then caught up with him in a 20 second KO defeat to Francis Ngannou back in May. Still, Rozenstruik has proven all he needs is “one punch” and we believe one punch is all he’ll need to dispatch former champ Junior Dos Santos. Dos Santos has found a way to remain relevant within the division but is coming off back to back losses to top contenders. One of them was a Rd 1 KO at the hands of Ngannou. Prior to experiencing that same fate (see above) Rozenstruik was a perfect 10-0 in his career, all but one win coming via knockout. Dos Santos is just 6-6 his L12 fights and his best days are clearly behind him. Even worse is that he’s been TKO’d in the last five losses. This is Rozenstruik’s coming out party and another KO finish is what we’re expecting here. 10* on ROZENSTRUIK AAA |
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08-15-20 | Lightning -170 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay thought it finally had gained the upper hand against arch-nemesis Columbus after a FIVE overtime victory in Game 1. Technically, the had. The win put the Lightning up 1-0 in the series. But then they lost Game 2 by a score of 3-1. The Blue Jackets really neutralized the Lightning’s offense in that one, giving up just the one goal in the first period. Obviously, in the back of Tampa Bay’s head is what happened last year - a shocking first round sweep at the hands of Columbus. Because they won Game 1, it can’t be a repeat, but the goal here is not to get eliminated by the same team two years in a row. The Lightning shouldn’t hang their heads too much though; they outshot the Blue Jackets in Game 2, 37-22. Game 1 it was an 88-63 edge in that regard (remember, 5 OT’s). Since the restart, the pattern for Columbus has been win one, lose one (they have yet to win or lose consecutive games. Tampa Bay also hasn’t lost two in a row. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |