Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-02-20 | Liverpool v. Manchester City OVER 3 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Realistically, Man City was not going to catch Liverpool for the top spot in the Premier League. But last Thursday’s 2-1 loss to Chelsea (where we hit the Over 2.5) ensured this Thursday’s matchup would be rendered rather meaningless. Liverpool has now clinched its first outright title in 30 years. Man City is going to finish second. As we said in our analysis for the battle with Chelsea, Man City was bound to concede a goal or two after keeping FOUR consecutive clean sheets against lesser foes. Not surprising is that these are - by far - the two highest scoring teams in the EPL. Expecting a good number of goals here seems like a formality. In City’s last 15 competitions, they’ve scored in all but three. Liverpool has notched a goal in 11 of its last 15 matches including four times the last time out. Similar to what happened to Man City last week, Liverpool's streak of two straight clean sheets since the return from lockdown is due to end. These sides have a history of going Over including a 3-1 result the last time they met. 10* on the OVER. AAA |
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07-01-20 | Chelsea -172 v. West Ham United | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -172 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHELSEA Chelsea’s 2-1 victory over Man City (where we cashed the Over) last Thursday had a “ripple effect” throughout the Premier League. The result not only gave Liverpool its first EPL title in three decades, it also ensured that the Blues would preserve a top four spot in the table. Chelsea is unbeaten since returning from lockdown (2-0) and flashing some fine form with five consecutive wins across all competitions. While still only two points clear of fifth place Wolverhampton, Chelsea could find itself third in the table with a win today. We like their chances against a side at the opposite end of the table. West Ham is in serious danger of relegation as they’ve won just one time in the last six matches. The Hammers are currently in a three-way tie for second-to-last in the table and it’s pretty difficult seeing them coming out on top here. Since returning, they’ve been kept scoreless in two matches and you would have to go back to February to find the last time this side found the back of the net. 8* on CHELSEA AAA |
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06-27-20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers -119 v. Aston Villa | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 60 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Wolverhampton Having delivered a pair of clean sheets (2-0 over West Ham and 1-0 over Bournemouth) since lockdown ended, the Wolvers are currently 6th in the table (technically tied for 5th) with 49 points on the campaign. If Chelsea fails to gain any points from Thursday’s match with Man City (result incomplete as of press time), which is a definite possibility, then the Wolves will find themselves having a chance to leap all the way up to 4th by the end of the day. Being on the cusp of qualification certainly should have them properly motivated for what looks to be another easy matchup. Incredibly, this will be the third consecutive matchup where the Wolves face a club in danger of relegation. Aston Villa is currently tied with the Wolves’ two previous opponents (each at 27 points), only ahead of Norwich. Since returning to the pitch two weeks ago, Aston Villa has authored two draws and a loss to Chelsea. But this is a side that’s tasted victory only seven times in the current campaign, the last coming back on Jan 21st. They’ve scored just twice in three matches played since lockdown ended with one of those coming late against Newcastle to earn the draw. This should be an EASY one for the favorites. 10* Wolverhampton AAA |
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06-25-20 | Manchester City v. Chelsea OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 50 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Man City-Chelsea This top four battle Thursday night at Stamford Bridge features a pair of sides that have been flawless since the lockdown ended. Host Chelsea was victorious over Aston Villa 2-1 on Sunday as they are now without a loss in four straight Premier League matches. They are 4th in the table (51 pts), but just two points clear of 6th. So it is imperative they continue the recent trend of winning. Unfortunately Man City is paying a visit and the Reds are not only 2nd in the table (63 pts) but coming off a commanding 5-0 effort Monday against Burnley. Though they have zero chance of catching Liverpool for the top spot, Man City’s two showings since EPL play resumed showed they aren’t about to “phone it in” here. In addition to the clean sheet Monday, they also beat Arsenal 3-0 last Wednesday. Now 20-3-7 on the campaign, they’ve kept FOUR consecutive clean sheets going back to pre-lockdown. But don’t be surprised if they concede a goal Thursday. Chelsea has scored at least two goals in four straight EPL matches. At the same time, Man City is the highest scoring away team in the league. 10* OVER AAA |
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06-21-20 | Real Madrid -123 v. Real Sociedad | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 48 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Real Madrid Real Madrid kept alive its hopes for finishing atop the La Liga standings with a convincing 3-0 win over Valencia Thursday night. As of press time, Barcelona’s fixture with Sevilla FC is not complete, but when this Sunday match kicks off, Madrid is guaranteed to be no more than five points back of 1st place. It was a strong second half showing at the Alfredo Di Stefano stadium Thursday night as all three goals were scored after halftime. The quick turnaround Los Blancos are facing here doesn’t bother us in the slightest as they are in fine form plus you have their opponents facing the same turnaround. Real Sociedad is off a 2-0 loss to Alaves, a somewhat crushing blow to their hopes of finishing in the top four. Real Madrid has put together the best away record in the league this year, picking up 25 points in 14 total matches while netting 22 goals, which is the most of any club. They’ve won both matches since La Liga play resumed. Real Sociedad coming off a draw and a loss doesn’t inspire much confidence in their side. 10* REAL MADRID |
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06-20-20 | VfL Wolfsburg -149 v. Schalke 04 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VFL Wolfsburg
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05-16-20 | Alistair Overeem v. Walt Harris -155 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -155 | 120 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HARRIS This will be an emotional fight for Harris, who is returning to the Octagon for the 1st time since his stepdaughter tragically passed away last November. That situation (rightfully) resulted in Harris pulling out of a scheduled bout with Overeem on Deember 7th. Overeem still fought that day and looked to be on his way to victory before getting KO'd with four seconds to go. Overeem has now lost three of his previous five fights. Meanwhile, Harris is unbeaten over his last four fights and has been incredibly impressive in the last two, winning Performance of the Night bonuses both times. Considering the emotion involved, we can't help but side with Harris, whose two wins last year both came by first round knockout. AAA |
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05-16-20 | Eryk Anders v. Krzysztof Jotko -145 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 118 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Jotko This middleweight bout pits two fighters that were once on three-fight losing streaks, but have since bounced back with two straight wins. Eryk Anders stopped Vinicius Moreira last June to improve to 13-4 in his MMA career and he's KO'd 2/3 of his UFC opposition. Krzysztof Jotko may not posses the "stopping power" of his opponent (65% of wins have come via decision), but he's 21-4 overall and looked impressive in defeating Alen Amedovski and Marc-Andre Barriault in 2019. This is a fighter that went 19-1 over his first 20 pro fights. The keys for Jotko are experience and ground game. Anders simply has never demonstrated any kind of comfort level on the ground. Don't be surprised if that's where the majority of this fight takes place. That favors Jotko, who gets our nod of approval. AAA |
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05-16-20 | Song Yadong -180 v. Marlon Vera | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 117 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 6* on Yadong Two top ranked featherweights meet here with Song Yadong (15-1-1) meeting Marlon Vera (15-5-1). Yadong has yet to taste defeat since coming to the UFC (4-0-1 record) while Vera is on a five-fight win streak himself. But prior to that win streak, Vera had been just a .500 fighter inside the Octagon with a 4-4 WL record. Yadong had to settle for a draw against Cody Stamann back in December, which ended his own seven fight win streak. Five of those saw him finish the opposition. Three of those five finishes came in the first round! Yadong is an exciting fighter that can't be ignored right now. He's our call to get his hand raised Saturday. AAA |
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05-13-20 | Anthony Smith -175 v. Glover Teixeira | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -175 | 48 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Anthony Smith The headliner for Wednesday’s UFC card in Jacksonville, Florida is a light heavyweight bout between Anthony Smith (32-14) and Glover Teixeira (30-7). Teixeira did go 3-0 in 2019, two of the wins coming by submission. But we’re siding with his opponent in this five-round affair between two veterans of the sport. Smith has won four of his last five bouts and last July saw him prevail by rear naked choke over Alexander Gustafsson. Just like Teixeira, he’s known as a finisher. He’s also knocked out Rashad Evans and “Shogun” Rua, two former champions of this division. Smith is nine years younger and Teixiera can’t hold off father time forever. Smith has won as an underdog several times in the past. As a favorite here, look for him to emerge victorious. This fight was originally going to take place last month before the sports world was turned upside down. It’ll be worth the wait for Smith. AAA |
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05-13-20 | Ben Rothwell v. Ovince St. Preux -135 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Ovince Saint Preux Neither of these two veterans head into Wednesday in what you’d call “fine form.” The 38-year old Ben Rothwell (37-12) has dropped three of his previous four fights. Ovince St. Preux (24-13) is moving up a weight class after going just 2-2 his last four fights. Both are off a win though with Rothwell KO’ing Stefan Struve in December while St. Preux choked out Michael Oleksiejczuk back in September. Even with Rothwell having a significant weight advantage here, we like St. Preux to deliver in his move up to the heavyweight division. Rothwell has a nasty habit of absorbing far too much punishment, getting hit twice more than he delivers on significant strikes. Additionally, St Preux is the more skilled grappler and should be able to take Rothwell down with great regularity, even facing a weight disadvantage. AAA |
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05-09-20 | Yorgan De Castro v. Greg Hardy -187 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 223 h 53 m | Show |
The pick is on Greg Hardy Hardy is off a loss, but it was a fight he took on short notice against Top 10 heavyweight Alexander Volkov and it went the distance. We're not about to dock Hardy for that result. His oppponent this time around will be Yorgan De Castro, who is 6-0 with five knockouts. But the level of competition has hardly been stellar. Only one of De Castro's fights has been under the UFC banner and it October's lucky KO of Justin Tafa. De Castro was on the proverbial ropes in that one before landing one big punch. Normally De Castro is larger than his opponent. Won't be the case here. Hardy is a decent sized favorite for a reason. AAA |
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03-14-20 | Charles Oliveira v. Kevin Lee -140 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -140 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KEVIN LEE UFC Fight Night 170 IS on. The card will take place in an empty arena in Brazil, bucking the trend of most major sporting events either cancelling or postponing in the wake of the Coronavirus outbreak. Adding to the complexity of this show is the fact that Kevin Lee missed weight (155 lbs), which means he’ll have to forfeit 20% of his purse to opponent Charles Oliveira. This isn’t the first time in his career Lee has missed weight. We still like him to get the job done in Saturday’s main event. He looked very impressive in his last fight when he used a striking advantage to defeat former NCAA wrestler Gregor Gillespie via 1st round knockout. Lee is also a takedown artist and getting this particular fight to the ground could be to his advantage, despite how effective Oliveira is with submissions. We look for Lee to impress the judges with his takedowns and think he’s smart enough to avoid the submission. Oliveira’s recent form is such that he figures to be a VERY popular underdog. We’ll fade that mentality. Play on KEVIN LEE AAA |
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03-11-20 | Senators v. Kings -160 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA The Kings can’t be stopped right now! They’ve won a season-best six games in a row and that streak figures to continue this evening when they host one of the worst teams in the league. Now LA has spent a good chunk of this season in last place. But they are now close to escaping the Pacific Division’s basement. Now you’d be correct in pointing out that as hot as the Kings have been, they still only have the same number of points as the Senators. But this situation is very bad for Ottawa. It’s the end of a three-game trip through Southern California and they lost 5-2 last night in Anaheim. The fact the Kings have allowed just seven goals in their six-game win streak is difficult to ignore. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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03-11-20 | Rangers v. Avalanche -155 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Colorado just got dealt its third loss in the last four games. Prior to that, the Avalanche had won eight in a row. But after playing the last three games on the road, they go back home tonight to face a Rangers team that was just in action last night. That’s kind of a sensitive subject for us as we had their opponents. But credit New York for winning on the road 4-2. But NY had won only one time in the five games before that and has had an issue with giving up goals lately. They also are missing Chris Krieder, whose absence from ice seemed to begin the current downturn. Colorado hopes the same thing doesn’t happen with Nathan MacKinnon’s injury, though that is a more short-term deal. There are others in the Avs locker room nursing injuries, but this is a much better team than the Rangers and being back home is just what they need right now. The Avalanche have won two-thirds of their non-conference games this year. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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03-11-20 | Washington v. Arizona OVER 139 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Washington and Arizona were the Pac 12’s biggest underachievers for the 2019-20 season. Washington finished in last place with a 5-13 conference record and while Arizona ended up a more modest 5th in the standings, that was also well below expectations. This first round tournament matchup is a rematch from the last regular season game for each. Washington won 69-63 in Tucson, which was certainly an upset as the Huskies were 10-point underdogs. We expect this rematch to feature a lot more scoring - from both sides. Prior to upsetting Arizona, Washington’s last four games had all gone Over the total. They’d just scored 90 points in an upset of Arizona State two days prior to winning in Tucson. Arizona had scored 83 in its previous game. They also beat Washington 75-72 in Seattle back in January. What’s interesting about the two games vs. the Huskies is that Arizona made only 26 two-point baskets on 72 attempts. That’s 36%! You have to figure they’ll shoot better today. Play OVER Washington-Arizona AAA |
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03-11-20 | St. Joe's v. George Mason -4.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GMU The Atlantic 10 Tournament has a clear favorite in Dayton and everybody else probably needs to win this thing in order to make the Big Dance. The longest “road to hoe” belongs to the bottom four, a group which both St. Joseph’s and George Mason can claim to be a part of. These two squads have combined for a total of five wins going back to late January. George Mason has three to St. Joe’s two, the difference being a 62-55 head to head win back on February 22nd. The Patriots just missed out on covering that day as they were 8.5-point favorites. But we like them with a small number attached to them today. Regardless if it’s a true road game or on a neutral court, St. Joe’s has just two wins away from home all season. They give up almost 80 points/game as well. George Mason has won and covered all three of its games in a neutral setting this year. They held St. Joe’s to 33.9% shooting in the regular season game. Play on GEORGE MASON AAA |
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03-10-20 | Rangers v. Stars -164 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Despite a five-game losing streak, Dallas is still in third place in the Central Division. But that lead is shrinking (down to 4 points) and their recent play obviously leaves a lot to be desired. They were just shut out twice in a row by Nashville, a division foe. Scoring shouldn’t be that difficult tonight however as the Stars get to face a Rangers team that has allowed 11 goals in its last two games. The Rangers also seem to have hit a “wall” with losses in four of their past five games. They’ve allowed 5 or more goals in all of those losses. The Stars have averaged more than 35 shots per game during this losing streak. So they are very likely to start converting more of those opportunities into goals. At the same time, they give up only 2.2 goals per game here at home. That’s the best average in the league in home games. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Perhaps no team in the entire NBA has defied expectations more than Memphis Grizzlies have. Projected to win only 27 games this season, they’ve already surpassed that number (they’ve won 32 games) and seem poised to make the playoffs as the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies aren’t favored very often, but be sure to take them when they are. Not only do they boast a 14-4 straight up record in the chalk role, they are also 13-5 against the spread. Tonight they host an Orlando team that is 7-1 ATS its last eight games and off a big upset win in Houston. But considering that was only the sixth time the Magic won as an underdog this year, we will gladly lay the short number in this game. Tonight marks the Magic’s 4th road game in the past 7 nights. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNC North Carolina has endured one of the worst single season free falls that we have ever seen. After starting the 2019-20 season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10, they ended up losing 18 of their final 26 regular season games and in a three-way tie for last in the ACC. But now the ACC Tournament begins and that gives the Tar Heels a “clean slate.” Before losing the final regular season game at Duke, UNC had won and covered its last three games. So there were some signs of a potential breakthrough. The first round tournament opponent is Virginia Tech. They lost to the Hokies 79-77 in January, but did cover the 7.5-point spot. This time UNC is favored as the game isn’t in Blacksburg. Since it defeated UNC, Va Tech has won just twice in 12 games. They are 3-8 straight up and against the spread as underdogs. This spot screams “Tar Heels!” Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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03-09-20 | St. Mary's v. BYU OVER 145 | Top | 51-50 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER St. Mary’s and BYU split their two regular season meetings. Each won a close game at home. The rubber match takes place Monday night in Vegas. For two teams that have spent the season battling it out for “who’s #2?” in the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga obviously #1), a win here all but clinches a NCAA Tournament berth. Both teams ended the regular season at 24-7 overall. But BYU got the #2 spot by finishing 13-3 in conference play while St. Mary’s was 11-5. So St. Mary’s had to play an extra game to get to this tournament semifinal matchup. They beat Pepperdine 89-82 on Saturday. The Gaels last four games have all gone Over the total with them averaging more than 80 points/game. Both games vs. BYU also went Over with the final scores being 81-79 and 87-84. Look for another high scoring game tonight. All four times St. Mary’s has been an underdog this year, the Over has cashed. The Over is also 7-1 when they play on one or zero days rest. Play OVER St. Mary’s/BYU AAA |
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03-09-20 | Raptors +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto won last night in Sacramento 118-113. Playing in the second night of a back to back should not prevent them from being able to win again tonight. The Raptors have won three straight on this road trip, previously winning in Phoenix and Golden State. It’ll be a tougher test tonight in Utah as the Jazz have won five in a row, the last four all coming on the road. But our view is that the better team is getting points and that’s something we can’t look past. Earlier in the year, they crushed the Jazz by 20. They led that game by 40 at halftime! While it was in Toronto, the Raptors are a strong 22-9 in their road games. Utah has been inconsistent this year, a point driven home by the fact this current 5-game run was preceded by a 4-game losing streak. They are just 5-11-1 ATS their past 17 games with only one cover as a favorite in the last eight tries. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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03-09-20 | Capitals -161 v. Sabres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -161 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON The Capitals got a big win Saturday, beating the Penguins 5-2. But they are still tied with the Flyers for first place in the Metropolitan Division. A favorable matchup on Monday should allow them to break that tie. They face Buffalo, a team that has lost its last six games. The Sabres have only scored 12 goals in the last seven games (while going 0 for 17 on the power play) and that just won’t get it done here as Washington is one of the top scoring teams in the league. Buffalo is 3-10 this year after scoring one goal or less in their last game. Despite playing hard for two periods, the Sabres still lost 3-1 at Philadelphia Saturday night. The Capitals have scored 10 goals in just the last two games and are 14-2-1 vs. the Atlantic Division this season. Easy win for the road team. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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03-09-20 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -8.5 | Top | 73-76 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO The MAC Tournament gets underway tonight. All four first round games are played on campuses before things shift to Cleveland for the quarterfinals on Thursday. Toledo is the home team for this matchup. While the Rockets are only 3-11 ATS at home this season, one of those covers came against Western Michigan, the team they’ll be facing here. They also won at Western Michigan a couple of weeks ago. That made it six straight wins over the Broncos and UT is 5-1 ATS in those same games. The Rockets closed the regular season on a strong 4-1 SU/ATS run, the only loss coming on the road. Western Michigan did not close strong as they’ve lost six of eight with the only two wins both coming in Kalamazoo. WMU is just 3-11 SU on the road. The Broncos scored only 59 points in both regular season matchups vs. Toledo and anything resembling that same defensive effort will bring home an easy ATS win here for the home team. We believe they get the job done as WMU drops to 1-12 ATS its last 13 Monday games! Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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03-09-20 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State -6 | Top | 73-56 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WRIGHT ST The Horizon League Tournament moves to Indianapolis tonight for a pair of semifinal matchups. The one we’re targeting sees the top seed Wright State facing the #4 seed Illinois-Chicago. While Wright State did beat UIC pretty big (17 points) at home in the regular season, they did lose 76-72 as 6.5-point road favorites in the first meeting of the year. So don’t look for the Raiders to take this game lightly. Because they were regular season champs, Wright State got a double bye into the semifinals whereas UIC has had to win twice to get here. Both of those wins for UIC came at home. The Flames are going to have to figure out a way to defend a Wright State team that comes in averaging more than 81 points/game. If that’s not enough, Wright State has had nine days off. The Raiders have gone 5-1 ATS in Horizon League Tourney games the past two seasons and that includes a pair of semifinal victories. Look for them to easily move on to their third straight Final. Play on WRIGHT STATE AAA |
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03-08-20 | Magic +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 126-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ORLANDO Orlando has seen a recent surge in scoring, leading to their last 10 games all going Over the total. They just hung 132 points in a win at Minnesota Friday night and are now 6-1 ATS the last seven games. Tonight they are getting a generous number of points from a Houston team that’s moving in the WRONG direction. The Rockets were the hottest team in the league not long ago but have gone 0-3 straight up and against the spread in March. Two of those losses came to the Knicks and Hornets, teams far worse off than Magic right now. Despite giving up more points than usual lately, the Magic are still top five in the league in fewest points allowed for the season. They give up 107.2 per game. Orlando has covered its last five road games. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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03-08-20 | Delaware +1.5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DELAWARE Quarterfinal action in the CAA here with Delaware taking on Charleston. The winner of this game is likely to play top seed Hofstra in the semifinals tomorrow. Delaware finished with a better overall record than Charleston this year (21-10 vs. 17-13). However Charleston is the higher seed as both were 11-7 in conference play and they had the tiebreaker. The tiebreaker was of course head to head play. Charleston beat Delaware twice this season and is a perfect 6-0 the last six meetings. They are 6-0 ATS in those games as well. That sets this up to be a major revenge situation for the Blue Hens. Both games vs. Charleston this year saw Delaware shoot poorly. They made just over 40% of their FGA in each game. That’s irregular. For the season, the Blue Hens are shooting over 48%. We’ll say they shoot a lot better today. The Blue Hens are also 5-1 ATS in their past six neutral court games. Play on DELAWARE AAA |
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03-08-20 | Hurricanes v. Penguins -155 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -155 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH Carolina and Pittsburgh both played on Saturday but had different results. The Hurricanes were finally able to snap their losing streak (at four games) with an overtime win at the Islanders. The Penguins, who recently ended their own six-game slide, were not successful against Washington. However, the Pens did score 11 goals in their two games (both wins) prior to yesterday’s loss where special teams played a significant role. Not only was Pittsburgh 1 for 5 on the power play, including a failure to convert a 5 on 3 opportunity. They also gave up a short-handed goal. Look for them to get back in the win column today. The Penguins’ home record is 23-7-4 and they have a large edge in scoring over their opponents in those games. Carolina is 0 for 4 off their last four wins while Pittsburgh is 7-2 off their last nine losses that were by 3 or more goals. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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03-08-20 | Nebraska v. Minnesota UNDER 144.5 | Top | 75-107 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Minnesota has basically played its way OUT of NCAA Tournament contention. They’ve lost six of their last seven games including three straight close ones. Losses to Maryland, Wisconsin and Indiana have all been by five or less points. All three games also went Over. It’s good deal then for the Gophers that they are getting Nebraska in the regular season finale. The worst team in the Big 10, the Cornhuskers are 2-17 in conference games and have lost 15 in a row. The Under 7-1 in Minnesota games this season when the total is 140 to 149.5 and they are keeping teams below 65 points per game at home. Therefore, look for a total reversal of fortune for the Gophers today. Besides Nebraska, there’s only one other “bad” team in the Big 10 this year and that’s Northwestern who Minnesota recently kept to 57 points. All three home games where Minnesota was favored by 12.5 or more this year have stayed Under. Play UNDER Nebraska-Minnesota AAA |
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03-07-20 | Stanford v. Oregon UNDER 133.5 | Top | 67-80 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER A win tonight means Oregon finishes with no worse than a share of the Pac 12 title. At home they are favored to beat Stanford, but look for a low scoring game as the Cardinal are surprisingly one of the better defensive teams in all college basketball. They are 6th in efficiency. They give up 61.9 points per game but Oregon isn’t far behind allowing 64.2 at home. The Ducks lost 70-60 in Palo Alto back in January, a game where they were held to a field goal percentage of only 32.8. Oregon had a huge scoring outburst Thursday vs. Cal (scored 90) but also held the Bears to just 56. Play UNDER Stanford-Oregon AAA |
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03-07-20 | Kings v. Blazers UNDER 231.5 | Top | 123-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Portland took a critical loss last night, 127-117 at Phoenix. They’d won two in a row before that to inch closer to Memphis, who is in 8th place in the West. The kicker is that the Grizzlies had already gotten blown out Friday (in Dallas) by the time the Blazers took the court last night. But the Blazers were completely embarrassed. They never led and were behind by as much as 26. Phoenix made 19 three-pointers as Aron Baynes had a career night. Look for a better defensive effort from the Blazers tonight. Sacramento has shot well in its last two games but has lost 12 straight times here in Portland. All three Kings road games this year that have had a total of at least 230 points have gone Under. So too will this game. Play UNDER Sacramento-Portland AAA |
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03-07-20 | Wild -137 v. Kings | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Despite not scoring a goal in regulation (or overtime), the Kings extended their win streak to four games Thursday night as they outlasted Toronto in a shootout. During this win streak, which is a season best for the Kings, they’ve allowed just three goals. Don’t expect these winning ways to continue though. This afternoon Minnesota invades LA. The Wild have won 7 of their last 9 games and scored at least three goals eight times. They’ve scored at least four goals in five of those games. While the Kings season is all but over, Minnesota is fighting for a playoff opportunity. They are one point back of the two Wild Card teams. A win here obviously puts them ahead of both. Incredibly, Thursday was the first shutout win for Los Angeles all season. They are just 6-12 after scoring 1 goal or less the previous game. The Wild have won 8 of their last 10 tries against teams that have losing records. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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03-07-20 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -3.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CREIGHTON This is the game that will determine the Big East’s regular season champion. It’s Seton Hall’s title to lose as the 8th ranked Pirates come into Saturday with a one-game advantage over #11 Creighton. But the Bluejays have the tiebreaker having already gone on the road and beat the Pirates 87-82 last month. Creighton has lost only once in its last seven games and that was when we played against them last Sunday at St. John’s. Consider that result to be an anomaly as the Bluejays quickly bounced back with a 91-point effort here at home vs. Georgetown on Wednesday. They’ve now won 10 of 12 overall and are 17-1 straight up at home where they are averaging a very healthy 83.5 points per game. Seton Hall can only blame itself for being in this position as they left the door open by losing to Villanova at home Wednesday night. The Pirates couldn’t stop Creighton from scoring a ton the first meeting. There’s no reason to believe they’ll be able to stop them here. Play on CREIGHTON AAA |
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03-07-20 | Auburn v. Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE Tennessee rallied back from a 17-point deficit to stun #6 Kentucky on the road Tuesday. For them, it had to feel like “just desserts” given that they blew a 17-point lead and lost earlier this year. That was to Auburn, who they’ll face here in the final regular season game of the year. This is a great shot for the Volunteers to post their second straight win over a ranked opponent, although this one would not be considered an upset. For the third time this season, Auburn has lost two straight. They’ve yet to lose three in a row but have lost four of their last six including an 0-3 road record. Wednesday saw them lose at home to Texas A&M as a 12-point favorite. Tennessee has had an extra day to prepare here and with this being Senior Day, you’ve got to think they’ll come out as the more motivated side in this contest. Auburn is just 2-7 ATS on the road this year and will have to figure out a way to score against a team that’s giving up less than 60 points per game at home. We don’t think they figure it out. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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03-06-20 | Maple Leafs -163 v. Ducks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -163 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO Toronto let us down big time last night. Getting shut out by the Kings was obviously not in mind. But it’s worth pointing out the Leafs didn’t allow any goals either … at least until a shootout, which they lost. Anaheim, though they pulled off a huge upset in its last game (beat Colorado 4-3 as a +315 dog), isn’t a threat to score many goals tonight. The Ducks are just 6-12 this year if they scored four or more times in their last game. Toronto has beaten Anaheim five straight times including 5-4 at home last month. They had more shots on goal than the Kings last night. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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03-06-20 | Golden Knights -133 v. Jets | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS Vegas is 9-1 its last 10 games. They’ve been big favorites each of the last four. Tonight they head to Winnipeg. The Jets have lost 4 of 6 but did beat Buffalo Wednesday. Whereas the Jets are in a 4-way tie for the last Wild Card spot, the Golden Knights are in a more comfortable position in first place in the Pacific. But don’t think that means a let up tonight. The Knights’ lead is only two points over Edmonton in the Pacific Division. Three of their last eight wins, the last one included, have been of the shutout variety. We liked them even at -1.5 Tuesday vs. New Jersey. They won 3-0. The Jets have won just 2 of the past 10 times they have been a home dog. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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03-06-20 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 246.5 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the Under Two terrible defensive teams here, but that’s obviously factored into the total. Atlanta gave up 127 points in its last game, which was all the way back on Monday. But they only scored 88 so the game (with Memphis) stayed Under. Same for Washington its last game. They only scored 104 in a 21-point loss at Portland on Wednesday. This is one of the highest totals of the entire NBA season. The Under is 7-3 in Washington’s last 10 home games vs. teams that have losing road records. The Under is also 6-1 the last seven times they’ve hosted Atlanta. Play UNDER Atlanta-Washington AAA |
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03-06-20 | Ohio v. Miami-OH -1.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Not much on the line here in the final regular season game for Ohio and Miami, so we’ll defer to the home side on “Senior Night.” The teams have played well of late. Ohio is 9-2 ATS its last 11 games and 5-0 ATS the last five. But they still have a losing record in MAC play at 7-10 straight up. Miami is in last place at 5-12 SU, but they’ve won their last two home games. Tonight is a chance for the RedHawks to avenge their worst loss of the season, which took place in Athens on February 8th. Ohio won that day 77-46. But Miami is 6-1 ATS since that loss. While they are 1-11 SU on the road this year, they are 10-5 SU at home. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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03-06-20 | Kent State v. Akron -6.5 | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Akron Rivals Kent State and Akron close out their respective regular seasons against one another here and there’s plenty at stake. Akron has surged to the top of the MAC East by winning seven of its last eight games and can clinch the top seed in the conference tournament with a win here. Seeing as they also have revenge for a one-point loss they suffered at Kent State on January 31st, the Zips’ motivation ought to be at a season-high tonight. We look for them to get the job done as they’ve gone an impressive 14-2 at home this year while allowing only 62.7 points per contest. Since beating Akron in the first go around, Kent State has a losing record and hasn’t posted back to back wins. They just beat Bowling Green at home on Tuesday. But on the road the Golden Flashes tend to struggle as their scoring average dips from 81.9 at home down to 68.1. They are also just 2-6 ATS off a league win this year. Play on AKRON AAA |
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03-05-20 | Portland v. Santa Clara UNDER 142 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is a first round game in the WCC Tournament. Both Portland and Santa Clara face a tall mountain to climb as they’ll have to win five times in six days to capture the championship, including needing to beat Gonzaga. Now that we’ve ditched that fantasy, let’s look at the actual matchup. Portland finished last in the WCC with a 1-15 record. They haven’t won a game since January 4th. They are terrible. Santa Clara is the 7-seed in the Tournament and just beat Portland 73-68 on Saturday. That game just finished Under. Look for this one to do the same as Saturday’s game saw the two teams combine to make 18 three-pointers. That won’t happen at a neutral site. Play UNDER Portland-Santa Clara AAA |
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03-05-20 | Raptors v. Warriors +8 | Top | 121-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the WARRIORS Steph Curry returns tonight to a Warriors team that is nothing like it’s been at any point in the last five seasons. The three-time NBA champs have the worst record in the league at 14-48. Golden State has won only five times in 2020, though two of those have come in the last three games. Perhaps motivated by the former MVP’s impending return, Curry’s teammates won in Denver two nights ago 116-110 as a 16-point underdog. Tonight, in a rematch of last year’s Finals, the Warriors face the Raptors. We expect this to be one of the high points of a lost season in Golden State. Yes, to expect Curry to play at an MVP-level right away would be foolish. But he doesn’t need to. The Warriors are still clear underdogs and only need to keep it close. Toronto has injuries as well with Fred Van Vleet and Serge Ibaka both expected not to play. Before beating Phoenix Tuesday, the Raptors had lost three straight and four of six. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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03-05-20 | Maple Leafs -175 v. Kings | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -175 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto is starting to feel a bit safer as it pertains to finishing in the top three in the Atlantic. The closest team to them is Florida, who is five points behind and lost three in a row. Just to be clear, a team needs to finish in the top three in its own division to be guaranteed a playoff spot. There are also two Wild Cards per conference. The Maple Leafs have been in third most of the year in the Atlantic Division and have almost no chance of catching second place Tampa Bay. But that has to feel like the Presidents Trophy compared to the Kings, who have spent the year in the basement of the Pacific. The Kings still have the least amount of points (56) in the Western Conference despite winning three straight games. That streak ends here, however. The only other time this season that LA won three in a row, they lost the next game… in shutout fashion. That was all the way back in November. Toronto has won 11 straight against California teams. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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03-05-20 | Boise State v. UNLV -2 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNLV UNLV hosts Boise State in the second of four Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals today. We like the tourney hosts for a variety of reasons here, namely that they come in hot. Five straight wins and covers have the Rebels primed to make a little noise this weekend and remember they are the only team to beat top seed San Diego State this entire season! The Runnin’ Rebels just beat Boise State here at the Thomas & Mack Center on Feb 26th, 76-66 as two-point favorites. They led by 12 at halftime and coasted from there. Boise State is just 4-8 on the road this season. The loss at UNLV was their regular season finale while the Rebels have since picked up a dominant 92-69 win at San Jose State. Their recent form can’t be ignored here and even if Long (knee) can’t go, they remain a safe bet. After all, they have covered 11 of the 16 times they have been a favorite in this season. Play on UNLV AAA |
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03-04-20 | Blue Jackets v. Flames -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CALGARY Columbus and Calgary are in similar positions, just different conferences, when it comes to current playoff position. Columbus - despite recently enduring a pretty brutal stretch - is one of the two Wild Cards in the Eastern Conference. Calgary actually moved up to third in its division, meaning it’s safer in the West, but they’ve spent most of the last several weeks as a precarious Wild Card holder themselves. The Flames did just win 3-0 at Florida on Sunday, giving them a boost in the standing. Columbus also won its last game, beating Vancouver. But the Blue Jackets have not won a road game in a LONG time (over a month) and the Flames have won seven straight times when facing an opponent that scored five or more goals in its last game. Columbus beat Vancouver by a score of 5-3. Play on CALGARY AAA |
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03-04-20 | Georgetown v. Creighton UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-91 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Creighton was on a real roll before running into St. John’s on Sunday. We took the Johnnies in that one as they put up 91 points in a big-time upset. Creighton won’t be giving up nearly that many points tonight though. They are back in Omaha where they - on average - give up far less points per game. While their scoring also goes up, they happen to be facing a Georgetown team that has failed to crack 70 in three of its past four games. The Hoyas have lost all four as they most certainly won’t be joining the majority of the Big East in the NCAA Tournament, save for them winning the conference tourney. With so many players injured, we don’t look for Georgetown to do much offensively in this game. Creighton won’t have to either, which lends itself to a play on the Under. The Under is already 6-2 in Georgetown’s last eight road games. Play UNDER on Georgetown-Creighton AAA |
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03-04-20 | Grizzlies v. Nets -2 | Top | 118-79 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Brooklyn is off a huge win last night as they came back from a 17-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to upset Boston 129-120 in overtime. They were 6.5 point underdogs and led by Caris LeVert’s 51 points. Now they face a quick turnaround to host Memphis. Most will look at this as a bad spot for the Nets, but they are at home. The Grizzlies have a losing record away from home and while they are off 39-point road win, it was against Atlanta. They were actually an underdog in that game due to multiple players being injured. Those same players - Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson - are both out tonight as well. The Grizzlies were fortunate to get a very balanced offensive attack against Atlanta (9 players in double figures!) but can’t count on that every night. Nor can they count on every opponent shooting as poorly as Atlanta did (32.5%!). Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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03-03-20 | Devils v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS -1.5 Vegas is a huge favorite tonight and for good reason. They’d won eight in a row prior to Sunday’s surprising 4-1 loss to the Kings. That loss was at home, but in our opinion it’s no reason to be concerned. Another last place team comes to their rink tonight and while the Devils just beat Anaheim 3-0, they’d previously two straight on this road trip which began more than a week ago. For Vegas, tonight marks the end of a four-game homestand. You know they want to end it on a high-note. What was so odd about that loss to the Kings is the Knights finished with a 43-17 edge in shots including 19-1 in the third period. They just couldn’t get anything past Calvin Petersen. The good news is that the Golden Knights have won five straight times after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Our call is to play Vegas at -1.5 on the puck line here. Play VEGAS -1.5 AAA |
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03-02-20 | Avalanche v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER This looks to be one of the bigger NHL mismatches in recent memory. That’s not lost on the oddsmakers, who have basically made the money line “unplayable” from our perspective. But this game going Over seems like a safe bet, maybe even more so than Colorado winning. The Avalanche are on a season-high six game win streak right now. All six games have also gone Under thanks to the Avs allowing just eight goals total. That seems like an average that will prove difficult to sustain. The Red Wings, bad as they are, should be able to get at least two goals here. In fact, Colorado has given up exactly two goals in three straight games. But it’s very likely the Avalanche score more than just two goals here as Detroit is giving up 4.6 their last five games. For the season, the Wings allow almost four goals per game. Colorado averages nearly 4.0 and is one of the highest scoring teams in the league. This will be a higher scoring game than expected. Play OVER Colorado-Detroit AAA |
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03-02-20 | Jazz -7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 126-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Give credit to Cleveland for playing better since the firing of former coach John Beilein. They’ve even posted home wins against the likes of Miami and Philadelphia. But those teams seem to be unique in how much they struggle on the road. Utah, who finally ended its losing streak (at four games) Friday, should have little difficulty coming in here and winning. The Cavs have lost two in a row, to New Orleans and Indiana. They still rate as one of the league’s worst teams. Utah winning its last game 129-119 over Washington should jumpstart a nice run for them as they fight for position in the Western Conference. They are the more rested team here and should put up another big total like they did vs. Washington. The Cavs are last in the league in defensive efficiency (Wizards are second to last). Donovan Mitchell has scored 30 or more in the last four games for Utah and should continue that streak in a big win tonight. Play on UTAH AAA |
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03-02-20 | NC State v. Duke -12.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DUKE Duke lost to Virginia Saturday, its second loss in a row and third in the last four games. But the one constant in those three defeats is that they all took place on the road. We were on the right side of that Virginia game Saturday with the Blue Devils getting held to a season-low 50 points. They faltered down the stretch yet again, just like they did against Wake Forest a few days prior. But back at Cameron Indoor, we look for the Blue Devils to make a statement tonight on ESPN. They are winning by more than 21 points/game at home this season. This is also a very big revenge spot. Duke lost to NC State by 22 two weeks ago in Raleigh. That was their worst loss of the season and something the players haven’t forgotten. This will be the first time this year that the Blue Devils take the floor with in-season revenge. They have won 10 of the last 11 times they’ve been seeking revenge for a road loss, covering the spread seven times. NC State is 0-3 ATS since the upset of Duke and lost at North Carolina. Play on DUKE AAA |
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03-01-20 | Colorado v. Stanford OVER 131.5 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER When these teams met in Boulder three weeks ago, the game flew Over with Colorado winning 81-74. Not only did the Buffaloes go 30 of 40 from the free throw line, they were 11 of 21 on three-pointers. In fact, they and Stanford combined to go 23 of 42 from three-point range. That was easily one of Stanford’s worst defensive games this season. While them getting to host the rematch will certainly lead to better play on that end, we look for this matchup to go Over again. It may not be as high-scoring as last time, but it doesn’t need to be. In fact, it doesn’t need to be close. The last one went Over by 25 points. Stanford has scored at least 70 points in its last three games with all of those being wins. Colorado just gave up 76 to a bad Cal team and that was at home. Stanford can really shoot the ball well. The Over is 4-0 the last four times they’ve been a home favorite. Play OVER Colorado-Stanford AAA |
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03-01-20 | 76ers +13 v. Clippers | Top | 130-136 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We all know about the Sixers’ struggles on the road. While the league’s preeminent home team (28-2 SU at home!), Philly is only 9-21 straight up in road games. That difference of -19 (home vs. road wins) is seven games more than the team with the second biggest split. Today they are at the Clippers, who have won three straight games by double digits. Two were at home and those margins of victory were 27 and 29 points. Despite all of this, we are grabbing the big number with the road dog. You’re not likely to get this many points with the Sixers in any game all season. Obviously that has to do with the fact Joel Embiid will miss the game with a shoulder injury. Ben Simmons is out too. But still this is too many points. The Clippers can have “off-nights” defensively and the Sixers have still won 6 out of their last 8 games. There’s been just one time all season that LA covered four in a row and it was back in December. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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03-01-20 | Flyers v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Didn’t these teams just play? Yes they did! The Flyers won at home Friday, beating the Rangers 5-2. It was Philly’s fifth straight win as they are now second in the Metropolitan Division, one point ahead of Pittsburgh, who has lost its last six games. During their five-game win streak, the Flyers have averaged 4.4 goals per game. But make note that four of those games were played on home ice where the team is rather exceptional. Not that they are bad on the road, but you can expect them to score less here than they did Friday. The Rangers had been pretty hot too, also scoring well above their season scoring average. Friday marked just the second time they were held under three goals over the last three weeks. But take note the Under is 17-11 in Rangers home games if the total is 6.0 or higher. The recent Over streaks for both teams will prove too difficult to sustain. Play UNDER Flyers-Rangers AAA |
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03-01-20 | Creighton v. St. John's +5.5 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. JOHN'S Creighton and St. John’s are in very different places as we approach the final week of the regular season. Creighton has surged to the top of the Big East by winning and covering its last five games. Plus they are 9-1 SU L10. St. John’s lost leading scorer Mustapha Heron and is 2-9 straight up its last 11 games (0-3 L3) as well as 1-6 against the spread its last seven. But the good news for St. John’s Sunday is they are playing at home and they are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread this year when off three consecutive losses. Even without Heron, we like their chances today due to the fact Creighton simply isn’t the same team on the road that they are at home. Scoring drops from 83.1 points/game down to 72.5 and that should be enough for St. John’s to at least earn itself the cover here. They are 5-1 ATS their last six times as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points including a perfect 3-0 this season. Play on ST. JOHN’S AAA |
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02-29-20 | Arizona v. UCLA OVER 135.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER That UCLA is tied for the Pac 12 lead right now is rather stunning. The Bruins have won six in a row to get to 11-5 in conference play and 18-11 overall. This is a team that was basically “left for dead” coming into February. Unless they end up winning the Pac 12 Tournament, we’re not even sure they wind up making the NCAA Tournament. Arizona is considered a lot safer for the Big Dance right now, although they’ve lost two straight to fall 1.5 games behind UCLA and Oregon in the conference. This is a rematch of a game played on Feb 8, won by UCLA 65-52. That win is what began UCLA’s current roll. They held Arizona to just 25.4% shooting (in Tucson) as the Wildcats made just 9 of 36 two-point attempts. It was a similarly awful shooting night for Arizona in their last game as they lost 57-48 to USC. But they are 2-0 SU/ATS this year when they are off a game in which they got held to 60 points or less. Look for Arizona to regain its “shooting touch” tonight, but also for UCLA to keep its hot shooting going. Play OVER Arizona-UCLA AAA |
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02-29-20 | Nets v. Heat OVER 222.5 | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Brooklyn and Miami tangle Saturday night in South Beach and for both teams it’s the second night of a back to back. Any chance the Nets had of moving up in the Eastern Conference was basically dashed last week when it was announced Kyrie Irving would be out for the remainder of the season. Over the past five days, they’ve certainly played like a team that knows it has a limited ceiling. They’ve lost three times, giving up 115, 110 and 141 points. Last night had to be rock bottom as they gave up those 141 points to Atlanta. That they allowed one of the league’s worst three-point shooting teams to go 19 of 39 is not a good sign. Miami isn’t exactly playing good defense either. They’ve allowed an average of more than 120 points/game over the last six contests, all of which have gone Over. They did at least snap a two-game losing skid last night by beating Dallas 126-118. The Over is now 19-9 in Heat home games where they have gone 24-4 straight up. The Over is also 27-12 for Miami when they face a team that is allowing at least 106 points/game. Brooklyn allows 110.6 points/game and that number gets even worse on the road. Play OVER Brooklyn-Miami AAA |
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02-29-20 | Hurricanes v. Canadiens -123 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MONTREAL Unless they are able to go on some sort of extended run, it’s looking increasingly less likely that Montreal is going to make the playoffs. Seven losses in the past nine games, the last two both at home, have them nine points back of where they need to be right now. But don’t expect the Canadiens to roll over Saturday for the Carolina Hurricanes, who are also coming off two straight home defeats and on the outside of the playoff picture. Having played last night puts the ‘Canes at a clear disadvantage coming into tonight. They fought back from a 2-0 deficit against the Avalanche only to then allow the game-winning goal with 2:37 left in regulation. That’s an incredibly demoralizing way to lose right before having to set out on the road. Injuries at the goalie position continue to haunt this team. It should be pointed out that Montreal has held 2-0 leads in each of its last two games. So it’s not as if they played poorly. Look for them to get up early again and then finish the deal tonight. Play on MONTREAL AAA |
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia +3.5 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on VIRGINIA Duke has tasted defeat twice in its past three games and both losses came on the road. The most recent was a real stunner as they gave up 113 points in a double overtime loss to Wake Forest. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in four straight road games. Tonight they are at defending National Champ Virginia. While the champs may not be the same team they were last year, they are rounding into form at the right time. It’s five straight wins by the Cavaliers and while four of those have been by three points or less, the offense has increased to 61.4 points/game. That may not sound like much (and it isn’t!) but when you are allowing only 49.5 points/game at home, then it’s plenty. Note Duke is only 4-12 ATS this season after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. Virginia has been a home underdog only one other time all year and they won that game (vs. Florida State) by five. They are 6-2 ATS the last three seasons when getting points. Led by their outstanding defense, Virginia gets the cash here. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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02-28-20 | Wizards v. Jazz -10 | Top | 119-129 | Push | 0 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH A long homestand typically provides a team an opportunity to start rolling, but in the case of the current one for the Utah Jazz, that certainly hasn’t been the case. The last four games have all ended with them on the “short end of the stick.” Adding insult to injury, they were favored in all four games. But tonight should be a reprieve with Washington paying a visit. The Wizards are off a win, but that was against a Nets team that is playing without Kyrie Irving. The two games before that, the Wizards got 50+ point games from Bradley Beal and still lost! On January 12th, the Jazz went to D.C. and won 127-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Winning by more at home shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Wizards are 7-21 SU on the road and it can’t be stressed enough just how bad they have been defensively. They are giving up an average of 123.5 points in road games, the highest such average in the league. Expect a big bounce back effort from the home team tonight. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-28-20 | Rangers v. Flyers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Both the Rangers and Flyers have been scoring a lot lately during respective red hot runs. The Rangers have won five in a row, the latest coming last night in 5-2 fashion at Montreal. That makes it 23 goals scored in five games. Not to be outdone, the Flyers have scored 17 goals in their last four games. While all that scoring might seem to indicate a high-scoring affair is all but assured tonight, we don’t think that’s the case at all. The Flyers just don’t give up many goals at home. They are allowing just 2.06 per game here and that’s the lowest average in the league for home games. The Rangers are 6-3-1 Under this season when playing in the second night of a back to back. This will also be the Rangers third game in four nights, all of them away from home, and they’re 7-1-1 Under the past nine times in that situation. Play UNDER Rangers-Flyers AAA |
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02-27-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State -4 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on North Dakota St This is perhaps the biggest regular season game the Summit League will see all year as second place North Dakota State hosts first place South Dakota State. The road team has won eight straight to climb into the pole position and that win streak started with a win over the Bison back on January 22nd. But it was only a five point win in which the Jackrabbits shot an amazing 55.8% from the field and made 24 of 38 shots inside the arc. That will not happen again on the road as ND State is the team more likely to “go off” offensively this time as they are averaging 81.4 points/game at home. The Bison had their own win streak stopped at seven games last Saturday with a three point loss at North Dakota. Maybe they were looking ahead to this showdown? Regardless, they are now 1.5 games back of South Dakota State, which makes tonight a “must-win.” The Bison are 11-1 on their home floor this year. All eight of South Dakota State’s losses this year have been on the road. Play on NORTH DAKOTA STATE AAA |
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02-27-20 | Stars v. Bruins -170 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOSTON Boston desperately needs a win after being humiliated in consecutive losses to Vancouver and Calgary. The loss to Vancouver took place on the road last Saturday, but will take awhile to forget as the Bruins were beaten 9-2, their worst loss of the season. Then on Tuesday Calgary came to town and won 5-2, handing the B’s just their third regulation loss at home all year. This team is too good to lose three in a row, which is something they have done since right after the New Year. The Bruins have the most points in the league and would have even more were it not for an incredibly unfortunate 0-7 record in shootouts. They have won six of the last eight meetings with the Stars including 2-1 in Dallas all the way back in October. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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02-26-20 | Penguins -175 v. Kings | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -175 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH Pittsburgh briefly passed Washington to move into first place in the Metropolitan Division, but three straight losses have them back in the “bridesmaid’s position.” Still they are only two wins away from tying the Capitals and they have two games in hand. We see an easy two points on the table tonight for the Penguins as they visit LA to place the last place Kings. Only one team in the league has fewer points than Los Angeles. That would be Detroit. Pittsburgh has only had one three-game losing streak this season. It was back in October and the next time out they won 3-0 against Tampa Bay. The Pens are 19-9 against teams with losing records. Everything about this spot says Pittsburgh will bounce back, especially the money line. The Kings were sellers at the trade deadline and are weaker than they’ve been all year. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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02-26-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +7.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND On Monday, Cleveland hosted a top 5 team in the East (Miami) whose play dips rather significantly on the road. Sure enough, the Cavs beat the Heat in overtime, 125-119 as a 6.5-point home underdog. It was a rather shocking come from behind effort as the Cavs trailed by 19 going into the fourth quarter. Of course, the Heat’s road woes are well documented. We bring this up because the team Cleveland hosts tonight sees an even more dramatic dropoff when they are on the road and that’s Philadelphia. The Sixers are a league-best 27-2 straight up at home. But their road record is 9-20. That is easily the biggest gap any team in the league has when it comes to home vs. road wins. So can Cleveland pull the same trick twice in a row? Not sure about them winning straight up tonight, but we do like the points as the 76ers are 1-9 ATS in road games where the total is 220 or higher. They are 4-8-1 ATS as a road favorite with six outright losses. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State -6 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PENN ST Yet another play from the Big 10 (had Michigan St last night), so we’ll mention again just how deep this conference is as it looks like 10 teams will be sent to the NCAA Tournament. But despite the depth, there are advantages to be had, especially when certain teams play on the road. We didn’t give Iowa much of a chance last night in East Lansing and the same holds true tonight for Rutgers in State College, PA. To say the Scarlet Knights have struggled on the road in Big 10 play would be putting it mildly. They have lost five straight Big 10 road games and six of seven overall with the one win coming against Nebraska. Rutgers is now 1-9 in road or neutral site games for the 2019-20 season. They just lost by eight at Wisconsin on Sunday. While the Big 10 may be deep, some teams are simply better than others and that’s the case with Penn State here as the Nittany Lions are a legit top 20 team that plays really good defense. Back to back losses (to Indiana & Illinois) have taken some wind out of their sails, but you’re still looking at a team that’s 13-2 SU at home with a point differential of +14.8 per game. They began February on a 5-0 SU/ATS tear and should end the month with a big win here. Play on PENN STATE AAA |
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02-25-20 | Panthers v. Coyotes -121 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona is getting Florida at the end of a five-game West Coast trip and they have to be liking their chances tonight. On Saturday, the Coyotes put forth one of the most impressive efforts we’ve seen by any team recently as they crushed the Lightning 7-3. Considering how well Tampa Bay had been playing going into that game, it really says something for the ‘Yotes. Meanwhile, the Panthers are reeling a bit. Ten goals allowed in just two games is not how they want to come into tonight, but that’s the reality as they gave up five goals apiece in losses to Los Angeles (Thursday) and Vegas (Saturday). With eight losses over the previous 11 games, Florida has slowed down measurably since the All Star Break. Arizona has won its last three home games and two of them were against Washington and Tampa Bay. Last month saw them go to Miami and beat the Panthers easily, 5-2. Playing with 2 days rest, the Coyotes have gone an impressive 10-1 this season. Everything here points to an easy win by the home team. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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02-25-20 | Blue Jackets v. Wild -172 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA Columbus FINALLY got back into the win column Monday, picking up two points at the expense of a pretty bad Ottawa team. We went with the Over in last night’s game and didn’t need to sweat it out as it was 3-3 midway through the third period. But for the Blue Jackets, things did get dicey as they needed overtime to prevail 4-3 and they lost goalie Merzlikins to injury. As one of just two teams in the league that played last night, the Blue Jackets seem to be at a severe disadvantage tonight in Minnesota. They had to play an extra five minutes last night and now have issues between the pipes. While they’ve yet to win at home since firing Bruce Boudreau, the Wild remain a solid home team and are motivated post coaching change. You may not be able to tell that by the way they lost to St. Louis on Sunday but the Wild shouldn’t have any issues here in a spot that clearly favors them. Columbus is giving up an average of 4.0 goals per game its last five contests. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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02-25-20 | Hornets v. Pacers -10.5 | Top | 80-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Both of these teams just got their tails kicked in. For Charlotte, it was Saturday when they lost at home to Brooklyn by 29 points, a real “bad look” considering the Nets are now without Kyrie Irving. Still, in terms of margin, the loss wasn’t as bad as what Indiana suffered Sunday in Toronto as they went down 127-81. One of the teams will get to bounce back from the embarrassing defeat Monday and our money is on the Pacers as not only are they playing at home, they are also simply the much better basketball team at this juncture. Even with three consecutive upsets straddling the All-Star Break, the Hornets are still only 4-14 straight up their past 18 games and when they lose it’s generally by a wide margin. The Hornets’ record in games decided by 10 points or more is a lousy 4-24 straight up. They are also just 2-19 vs. teams that have winning records while going 5-14-2 against the spread. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-25-20 | Iowa v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 70-78 | Push | 0 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN ST Yet another quality Big 10 matchup Tuesday and while it’s a battle of Top 25 teams, we actually think things will end up rather lopsided here in East Lansing. Despite a less than stellar February, Sparty remains an elite team, one that is far better than its #24 ranking. Make no mistake about it, there might not be more than 5-7 teams that would be favored over Michigan State come Tournament time. Tom Izzo’s bunch got the confidence-boosting win it needed last Thursday when they went to Nebraska and blew out the Cornhuskers 86-65. Now they host Iowa, who we have serious doubts about on the defensive end of the floor. Of all the teams currently ranked in the Top 25, the Hawkeyes have the worst efficiency rating defensively. We grabbed them laying a small number vs. Ohio State last Thursday. However, that was at home. They’ve gone just 1-16 straight up and 4-13 against the spread their past 17 visits to East Lansing and this number tells you to disregard the rankings. Iowa had lost three straight road games before a miracle comeback at Minnesota nine days ago. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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02-24-20 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 134.5 | Top | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Kansas is coming off its biggest win of the season as they won 64-61 at #1 Baylor on Saturday, thus avenging their only conference loss of the season. With #2 Gonzaga having also lost Saturday, expect the Jayhawks (winners of 12 in a row) to be the new #1 when this game vs. Oklahoma State tips off Monday. We played the Under in the Baylor game, which was a winner, and it’s back to playing the total tonight. Only this time we’re looking at the Over due to the opponent being so lax defensively. In our writeup for the Kansas-Baylor game, we went into great detail about just how good both teams are defensively. Well, Oklahoma State is not great defensively. One thing the Cowboys did to impress us though is score 86 points in a win over rival Oklahoma on Saturday. Kansas has scored 87 and 91 points in its last two home games. So all signs point to a high-scoring affair tonight on ESPN. The Jayhawks average 78.7 points/game in Lawrence and the Over has hit the previous three times OSU has been a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Play OVER Oklahoma St-Kansas AAA |
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02-24-20 | Senators v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The only NHL game on Monday offers up a wonderful opportunity to bet the Over in our eyes. Columbus’ last four games have all gone Over anyway with them surrendering 17 goals. Not only have the Blue Jackets lost all four, they’ve actually lost eight straight games. But as bad a shape as the Blue Jackets are in, Ottawa is even worse. The Senators have the third fewest points in the league and have dropped 9 of their last 12 games. Over their last five games, they’ve surrendered 19 goals. The last time Columbus and Ottawa met they combined for seven goals in a 4-3 Senators victory up in Canada. There were 68 shots on goal and all but one goal was scored with the teams at even strength. The Over has hit the last eight times Ottawa has faced a team from the Metropolitan Division. Play OVER Ottawa-Columbus AAA |
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02-24-20 | Hawks v. 76ers -8 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA The Sixers are back home Monday and you should know what that means. It’s a virtual guarantee that they’ll play better than they did Saturday night in Milwaukee when they lost 119-98. That loss dropped Philly to 9-20 in road games. They are 26-2 at home. Throw in the fact that they go from facing the league’s best team to (maybe) its worst and it should be a complete “reversal of fortune” here. While the Hawks are 2-0 since returning from the All Star Break, each of those wins came at home. They have only six road wins all year and only one in the last 30 days. Philadelphia is playing with revenge tonight as well. They lost in Atlanta last month. (They also won there early in the season). The Sixers are an impressive +10.0 points/game compared to their opponents here at home. They are 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 or higher (total here is currently 229). Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-23-20 | Oilers -137 v. Kings | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EDMONTON Edmonton is coming off two straight home losses. The last one was to Minnesota as they gave up five goals. The other was to Boston, the team with the most points in the league. Now in third place in their division, the Oilers are set to embark on a three-game road trip of the West Coast starting in LA tonight. The Kings have the least amount of points in the Conference. They lost 2-1 to Colorado last night, a game that went to a shootout, so they’re at a disadvantage here. This isn’t a team that can overcome any additional disadvantages. Edmonton is 13-5 when off a loss by two or more goals. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
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02-23-20 | Pistons v. Blazers UNDER 225 | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER A Detroit team that’s averaging less than 100 points over its past five games facing a Portland team playing without its leading scorer should result in an easy Under this evening. Damian Lillard was absolutely on fire for the Blazers before a groin injury put him on the shelf. Without him, the Blazers lost to New Orleans Friday night, though lack of offense really wasn’t the problem. But lack of offense has been a problem for the Pistons who are without their best player (Blake Griffin) as well. Again, it wasn’t really the offense that was the primary issue as Detroit lost 126-106 to Milwaukee Thursday night. But we should see both teams struggle to score in this one. The Under is 14-3 for the Pistons the last 17 times they allowed 125 or more points the previous game. So look for improved defense on their part. The Trail Blazers are 7-3 Under following a double digit loss at home. Play UNDER Detroit-Portland AAA |
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02-23-20 | Stanford v. Washington State +3.5 | Top | 75-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON ST Stanford stopped the bleeding with a 72-64 upset of Washington on Thursday. But that singular win doesn’t change the fact that the Cardinal had previously lost seven of eight, which obviously put a severe damper on their NCAA Tournament hopes. Tonight they are at Washington State, a matchup the Cardinal likely feels pretty good about. But this one is trickier than it looks. Yes, Wazzu has lost three in a row overall and was just beaten here in Pullman by Cal Thursday. The Cougs were 6.5-point favorites in that loss too. But they remain 11-4 at the Paloose. They’ve got some big time revenge for a 26 point defeat suffered in Palo Alto earlier in the year. Stanford shot 61% in that game, Washington State was under 40%. It’ll be a lot different this time as we conclude by pointing out that Wazzu is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this year as a home underdog of three points or less. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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02-23-20 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Whenever it’s time to analyze one of these Big 10 matchups, we start by pointing out the incredible depth in the conference. There could be as many as 11 teams making the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin and Rutgers are among them. Right now though the Badgers are simply hotter. They’ve won three in a row, taking advantage of a somewhat “relaxed” schedule for this time of year. Today marks just the fourth game for the Badgers in the past 14 days. They beat Purdue Tuesday, continuing a string of impressive showings here in Madison that has seen them defeat the likes of Maryland, Michigan State and Ohio State. Rutgers just suffered its first home loss of the season, at the hands of Michigan, and we look for that to have an effect on them today. The Scarlet Knights have lost four of six overall. They have just ONE road win all season. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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02-23-20 | Temple v. East Carolina OVER 140 | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Temple is off a wild 93-89 win over UConn. Double overtime was needed to get the victory, which was the second time the Owls prevailed in OT in their last four games. Today they’ll head to East Carolina to face a team not making much noise in the American this year. The Pirates 4-10 conference record has them a loss away from being tied for last place with Tulane, a team that they’ve beaten twice. However, ECU has at least been competitive of late. In the last week, they’ve lost by only three to Cincinnati and by four to Memphis. So Temple should consider itself forewarned. What we expect here is a high-scoring affair. While recent Temple scores have been boosted by overtime, they can still pile up the points today. When they hosted East Carolina on Feb 1, they scored 76 points. The Pirates shot very poorly in that game and should improve on their percentages now that they get to play at home. They’ve scored at least 67 in three of the last four contests. Play OVER Temple-East Carolina AAA |
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02-22-20 | Oregon +5 v. Arizona | Top | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON Crucial game in the Pac 12 tonight for both teams, but particularly for Oregon as they are off a loss and a game back of Arizona in the win column. The Ducks go to Tucson Saturday night with a higher ranking for now (#14 vs. #24), but they really can’t afford another loss here. Back on January 9th, the Ducks did beat Arizona 74-73 in a close call in Eugene. Arizona comes into the rematch as a decided favorite having won three straight. They seem overvalued though in what we view as a pretty even matchup. Oregon has been an underdog just three times all season and this is the first time in over a month. Let’s not forget that it wasn’t too long ago that Arizona lost - by double digits - here at home to UCLA. The Wildcats are just 9-21 ATS in Saturday games the last three seasons. This is one of those games where you just want to play the underdog as an outright win is far more likely than a blowout by the favorite. Play on OREGON AAA |
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02-22-20 | 76ers +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-119 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We all know about how the Sixers perform on the road relative to how they do at home. On Thursday, they defeated the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 112-104. That improved their already league-best home record to 26-2 straight up. However, they’ve gone just 9-19 straight up on the road and tonight finds them playing in Milwaukee. Despite this seemingly “insurmountable” task the 76ers are facing, we like them to come through with the cash tonight on ABC. Impressive as they have been, the Bucks cannot possibly continue to win by these large margins. What’s interesting is that they have played only 17 games all season against teams that have winning records (fewest in the league). They are 10-7 straight up in those games and 7-10 against the spread. They’ve lost only 1 time all year to a team with a losing record. A couple of weeks ago Philly came here and lost by 11. We think they’ll do better this time as this game means more to them than it does to the Bucks. They did beat the Bucks earlier in the year (at home). Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-22-20 | Hurricanes v. Maple Leafs -137 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -137 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO It is an incredibly jam-packed race for the two Wild Card spots in the NHL’s Eastern Conference. Remember that the top three in each division automatically qualify for the playoffs. Right now Toronto occupies third in the Atlantic, but they are just two points up on Florida. Carolina has the same number of points as Toronto (72) but is actually sixth in the Metropolitan, meaning they would not be in the playoffs if they started today. What the Hurricanes are in is the second night of a back to back. They lost at home to the Rangers last night, 5-2, as they continue to struggle to find consistency post-All Star Break. Toronto is off a shutout win over Pittsburgh, 4-0, right here at home on Thursday. These teams played one of the wildest games of the year back in December with the Maple Leafs prevailing 8-6. That was also here in Toronto. The Leafs are better situated to grab the two points tonight seeing as they are rested and 15-8 straight up when off a win by two goals or more. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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02-22-20 | UCLA v. Colorado -10 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Colorado may not be the “best” team in the Pac 12 this year but they have been the most consistent. As a result, they are the ones in first place, not Arizona nor Oregon. The Buffaloes are ranked 18th in the country and just held off USC for a 70-66 win on Thursday. They get to stay in Boulder for the weekend as now it’s UCLA that will pay a visit. The Bruins have not been consistent in the first year under Mick Cronin and we like this opportunity to fade as they are coming off an upset win at Utah a little less than 48 hours ago. The chances UCLA records two straight upset wins on the road seems very unlikely, even though right now is the hottest that the Bruins have been all season. They’ve won four in a row, starting with a win at Arizona. But Colorado is just too tough here as they have a 13-2 SU home record and give up only 61.9 points/game. Motivation will be high as this is the final home game of the season (Senior Night!) and they actually lost at UCLA by 4 points back in January. Revenge will be sweet this afternoon. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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02-22-20 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 129.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is the game Kansas has been waiting for. Back on January 11th, they lost at home to Baylor by a score of 67-55. Since then they’ve 11 straight wins, seven of those coming by double digits. But top-ranked Baylor isn’t going to roll over here either. The Bears have won 23 straight games. They’ve covered 17 of 25 ball games including 10 of 13 in conference play. Key to this game will be defense. These are two of the top three teams in defensive efficiency in the entire country. Kansas gives up 57.5 points/game on the road. Baylor gives up 56.2 points/game at home. The first game stayed Under by 10 points yet this O/U is just three points lower. Oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough. The Jayhawks’ OU record in Big 12 games is 9-1. With this game being so important, both teams will be playing lockdown defense. Play on UNDER KANSAS/BAYLOR AAA |
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02-21-20 | Wild v. Oilers -109 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on EDMONTON Minnesota made a surprise change behind the bench last week, firing coach Bruce Boudreau. After losing their first game under interim Dean Evason (2-0 to San Jose), the Wild were able to outlast Vancouver in a shootout Wednesday night. But the road has generally been less than kind to this team as it still gives up 3.6 goals/contest when not in the XCel Center. So look for Edmonton, who is coming off a home loss, to rebound tonight. Despite being short handed, the Oilers were able to take the Bruins to overtime Wednesday. Boston is arguably the best team in the league and there’s no shame in losing to them. The last time Edmonton lost two straight home games was early December. They have a chance to move into first place in the Pacific Division with a win tonight and come in with a case of double revenge for a pair of losses in the Twin Cities early on in the season. Play on EDMONTON. AAA |
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02-21-20 | Spurs v. Jazz -7 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH The Spurs were done a favor last night as Memphis lost, meaning San Antonio is now within 3.5 games of the 8th (and final) playoff spot out West. Utah has its eyes on a bigger prize as they went into the All Star Break 4th in the conference and on a 4-game win streak. The last three wins were against Houston, Dallas and Miami and the Jazz covered all three. This is a step down in class from those teams, all of which are solidly in the playoff mix. Two of the wins (Houston, Dallas) even came on the road. Speaking of the road, it has been unkind to San Antonio. The annual “Rodeo Road Trip” began on Feb 3rd and has seen the Spurs go 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS with the only straight up win coming at Oklahoma City right before the break. Utah has a big edge defensively in this matchup as they give up only 104.1 points/game at home while SA allows 116.4 on the road. Utah is 20-5 at home while SA is 9-19 on the road. This is the Spurs first visit to Salt Lake City this season and the Jazz have revenge for losing as a five-point favorite in the Alamo last month. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-21-20 | Princeton v. Harvard UNDER 142.5 | Top | 60-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Harvard trails Yale and Princeton by one game, so getting to host the latter is a big deal tonight. The Crimson won both games last week - 85-63 over Cornell and 77-63 over Columbia. Both were played right here at Lavietes Pavilion. Princeton also got to play twice at home last week, but they split the pair, losing to Yale while beating Brown. The Tigers did defeat the Crimson earlier this season 70-69 on what was a hot shooting night for them from distance (went 13 of 23 on three-pointers). That was the last Harvard game to stay Under as the last four have all gone Over. But Princeton won’t shoot as well this time around. Harvard defends exceptionally well when they’re at home, giving up just 59.4 points/game. Princeton is 6-0 Under this year in games where they came in with 5 or 6 days rest. That includes the two Friday games since Ivy League play started. Don’t forget Harvard is without top scorer Bryce Aiken as well. A lower scoring game than the first matchup, which we think this will be, makes for an easy call on the Under. Play UNDER Princeton-Harvard AAA |
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02-20-20 | Grizzlies v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 125-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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02-20-20 | Flyers v. Blue Jackets -120 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLUMBUS This is a very important game within the Metropolitan Division. Third place guarantees you a playoff spot and right now the race for third is four teams separated by a single point. The Flyers are in “pole position” right now with 73 points. Three teams, Columbus among them, have 72 points. The Blue Jackets are absolutely desperate right now as they have lost six in a row, the most recent game coming in Philadelphia Tuesday where they went down by a score of 5-1. But the Nationwide Arena in Columbus has been a house of horrors for the Flyers as they’ve won just three of the past 19 visits. One such win did occur back in November. The Blue Jackets are 0-3 against the Flyers this year. So calling this their most important game of the season (so far) would not be hyperbole. Look for a very inspired effort by the home team tonight. Something worth noting is three of the losses in the six-game losing streak for the Blue Jackets have come past regulation. Also, they lost and gave up five goals Tuesday despite allowing just 15 shots. Play on COLUMBUS AAA |
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02-20-20 | Ohio State v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Iowa We had some discussion about the Big 10 yesterday. While we came out on the wrong side of that game (Indiana-Minnesota), we’re back at it again, this time with two of the likely 10 teams that the conference will send to the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State was once ranked as high as #2 in the polls. A bad January dropped the Buckeyes standing precipitously, however, they have since rallied by winning five of their last six games. Iowa has alternated wins and losses over the last six games and is off a come from behind win at Minnesota. While recent form may be better for OSU, this game still takes place in Iowa City where the Hawkeyes have lost only one time all year and that was back in the second game. Iowa boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the country and Ohio State is only .500 overall in Big 10 play and 3-5 on the road. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 ATS at Carver Arena. Seems logical to lay the short number here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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02-19-20 | Wild v. Canucks -123 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -123 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VANCOUVER Despite taking a 5-1 loss Sunday, the Canucks are still outscoring visiting teams by an average of 0.9 gpg, which is very solid. They average 3.6 gpg in Vancouver and had won their two previous games here by scores of 6-2 and 3-0. Minnesota is not a good road team. They are giving up 3.7 gpg away from home, which is the third worst average in the league (only Detroit & Ottawa are worse). They also just made what was a bit of a head-scratching decision, firing coach Bruce Boudreau. Clearly, the front office saw something wrong with this team that the rest of us were not seeing. That the Wild were shut out at home - 2-0 by a bad San Jose team - in the first game after Boudreau’s firing was not a good sign. Speaking of changes, Vancouver just brought in forward Tyler Toffoli in a trade with the Kings. This is a key acquisition. The Canucks are simply better than the Wild, especially at home. Play on VANCOUVER AAA |
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02-19-20 | Indiana v. Minnesota -5.5 | Top | 68-56 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Big 10 will obviously be sending a lot of teams to the NCAA Tournament. Right now, if certain “bracketologists” are to be believed, the number of teams is 10. Only one other conference is likely to send more than five. Interestingly enough, neither Indiana nor Minnesota are among those 10 even though both grade out favorably against most teams from other conferences. In the case of Minnesota, a 12-12 WL record does them no favors. However, you can’t tell us that the Golden Gophers aren’t among the top 35 teams in the country. Four losses in the last five games, particularly the one vs. Iowa on Sunday, have really stung. But getting a chance to host an Indiana team that is 1-5 straight up and against the spread its last six games is an opportunity the Gophers can surely cash in on. Indiana is a dreadful 1-6 ATS in road games. They’ve lost 23 of 30 road games the last three seasons. The loss to Iowa on Sunday was just the second time Minnesota lost as a favorite this year (8-3 ATS) and they are 5-1 ATS after being held under 60 points. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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02-19-20 | East Carolina v. Memphis -12.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS There’s significant hand-wringing now over Memphis’ chances to make the NCAA Tournament. A team firmly on the “bubble” all season, the Tigers have gone out and lost three straight. Right now, no one seems to be considering Penny Hardaway’s team as being worthy of the Big Dance and without a really strong finish to the regular season, it’s difficult to imagine that changing. It is worth mentioning though that this three-game losing streak has been nothing but close games. The three losses have all been by six points or less and by a total of only 11 points. Tonight, Memphis has a golden opportunity to take its frustrations out on a lesser opponent, that being East Carolina, who is just 7-13 ATS when getting 12.5 or more on the road. The Pirates are in second to last in the American with a 4-9 conference record and have been beaten by double digits each of the last two times out. Their only conference wins since January 11th both were against Tulane, the last place team in the American. Memphis wins by an average of 17 points/game at home. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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02-18-20 | Kentucky v. LSU -2.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU It wasn’t that long ago where LSU was the lone unbeaten team in SEC play and feeling really good about itself. But three losses in the past four games have dropped the Tigers out of the Top 25 and one game back of Kentucky in the SEC. But those three losses the Tigers recently suffered all have one thing in common and that’s they all took place on the road. In Baton Rouge, this team is still 13-1 and they’ve generally won by safe margins. Kentucky is not as dominant as you might think even though it is ranked 10th in the country. While the Wildcats have won eight of nine, most of the wins have come against the bottom half of the SEC. They have failed to cover five of the seven games they have played against teams that average at least 77 points game. LSU averages more than that. LSU is undervalued tonight at home. Play on LSU AAA |
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02-18-20 | Devils v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Stanley Cup Champs (St. Louis) have lost five straight games, turning the Central Division race into a tight three-way battle between them, Dallas and Colorado. All five Blues losses were to teams fighting to make the playoffs in the Western Conference. Tonight they’ll host a team from the Eastern Conference that is in last place in their own division and they are 4-0 against the previous two seasons. But New Jersey did beat Columbus in a shootout Sunday, so this may not be the “walk in the park” St. Louis is hoping for. What we’ll do is call for an Over as three of the Devils last four games have seen at least seven total goals scored. NJ has scored three or more goals in eight of its last 10 games and four or more six times. The Over is 11-5 in the Blues last 16 games and 4-1 this season if they were held to 1 goal or less in their most recent game. They lost 2-1 at Nashville Sunday. Play OVER New Jersey-St. Louis AAA |
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02-18-20 | Illinois +6.5 v. Penn State | Top | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Penn State is undoubtedly a hot team right. Having achieved a top 10 ranking (#9) for the first time in forever, the Nittany Lions are on an 8-0 win streak - both straight up and against the spread. Their latest conquest took place Saturday when they defeated Northwestern 77-61. It was their largest margin of victory during the win streak. Of course, Northwestern also just so happens to be the worst team in the Big 10. Illinois, while having lost four in a row, is still considered to be a NCAA Tournament team and it wasn’t that long ago that they were leading the conference! The Illini’s rough patch has included games vs. Maryland and Michigan State as well as road trips to Iowa and Rutgers. Really, they shouldn’t have been favored to win any of those games. They obviously don’t deserve to be favored tonight either, but the spread is too high in our estimation considering where Illinois was just a short time ago. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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02-17-20 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTH CAROLINA North Carolina isn’t going to get sympathy from anyone in the ACC or nationally. But it sure is sad to see the Tar Heels having fallen this far (last place in the ACC). For the second time this year, they’re on a five-game losing streak. They’re just 2-10 the past 12 games. But this more recent five game losing streak has seen them fall by two points or less three different times. Saturday against Virginia they lost 64-62. But you should take them here against a Notre Dame team that was just humiliated by Duke over the weekend. The Fighting Irish took a 34-point loss in Durham, which ended a six-game ATS win streak. The Irish have had some close losses of their own, namely a one-point loss at Virginia last Tuesday that went into overtime. But that Duke loss is going to be “tough to shake” and we expect there to be somewhat of a “carry over” from Saturday to tonight. Before Saturday, Notre Dame had been held to 60 points or less three different times this season. They’ve yet to cover off one of those performances. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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02-17-20 | Xavier v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST JOHNS Xavier finds itself right on the NCAA (Tournament) bubble and something tells us that the committee cares very little about the fact that the Musketeers have covered four straight games. What the committee will focus on is the fact they lost to Butler last Wednesday, 66-61, stopping a three-game SU win streak. They are 16-9 SU, but only 9-15-1 ATS and 5-11 ATS laying points. Tonight they go to St. John’s, who is off an 80-69 win over Providence. The Red Storm averages 77.7 points/game at home, so that’s something Xavier has to contend with here. There was a meeting back on Jan 5th, won by Xavier 75-67. But in an eight-point game, St. John’s was 1 for 16 on 3PA, which definitely cost them a cover (line was +8) and possibly even an upset win. With the kind of offense the Red Storm typically produces at home, we expect better shooting tonight. They are 9-5 ATS at home and just came up big in one revenge spot (vs. Providence) and can do the same here against a Xavier team that has a losing record in Big East play. The Musketeers were down by as many as 17 against Butler and only got close when the Bulldogs lost G Aaron Thompson to injury. Play on ST. JOHNS AAA |
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02-17-20 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -127 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS The Golden Knights have kicked off this homestand with a couple of wins. Both were by one goal, yet also very different. They beat St. Louis 6-5 and the Islanders 1-0. No matter the manner the wins are coming, Vegas will take them as they continue to fight for playoff positioning. They currently are third in the Pacific Division, but just two points out of first. So a win tonight could land them atop the division. That will be easier said than done facing Washington, but at least the Knights are getting the Capitals at the end of a three-game road trip. The Caps just got beat Saturday in Arizona, 3-1, as their lead over in the Metropolitan Division gets even smaller. It’s now down to a single point over Pittsburgh. Note Vegas is 4-0 the last four times they’ve been off a game in which it scored two or less goals. The home team has taken five of six all-time meetings. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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02-16-20 | Utah v. Oregon -12.5 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON Oregon is well-positioned right now. They are ranked #17 in the country and one win away from tying Colorado for first place in the Pac 12. Getting that win should prove to be pretty easy on Sunday as they host Utah, who has won exactly one true road game this season. Now the pointspread is in the double digits because of all you have just read, but that’s to be expected and not something we’re concerned about in the slightest. We know how the Pac 12 schedule works so this is actually the second road game of the weekend for the Utes, who lost by 19 in Corvallis (Oregon State) Thursday. Oregon won that same night, 68-60 over Colorado, to keep their record perfect (now 13-0) here in Eugene. Utah isn’t just 1-7 straight up on the road, they’re 2-6 against the spread as well and getting beaten by more than 16 points per game. Oregon already won in Salt Lake City this year and should have no problem winning big tonight. Play on OREGON AAA |
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02-16-20 | Ducks v. Canucks -154 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -154 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VANCOUVER Vancouver has been the best team in the Pacific all year and that’s starting to “bear fruit” as the Canucks lead the division with 67 points. But the lead is precarious to say the least with the next four teams all within three points and two teams within a single point. So they can’t afford any kind of “letdown” game. Thankfully, the Canucks are at home tonight where they’ll battle an Anaheim team that simply isn’t very good. Oddsmakers have curiously priced this game as if it might be competitive but we’ve got a different view as the Canucks are 19-6-3 at home and won their last two games by scores of 3-0 and 6-2. Both were on home ice where they are outscoring the opposition by more than a full goal per game this season. Anaheim was shutout 6-0 in its last game and while that was three days ago, the Ducks certainly haven’t gotten any better since that home loss to Calgary. To “sweeten the pot” here for Vancouver, this is a revenge game. Play on VANCOUVER AAA |
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02-16-20 | Oilers v. Hurricanes -205 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -205 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 6* on CAROLINA If you look at how Carolina is being priced on a game-by-game basis, you’d expect that that they’d be in a lot better position than sixth place in their own division and just fighting to get into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Yet that’s where they are right now. The Hurricanes handled their business on Friday by beating the New Jersey Devils 5-2 here in Raleigh. They were -285 money line favorites for that game. Now it’s obvious that today’s pricing is heavily influenced by the fact Edmonton is without Connor McDavid. But the price isn’t high enough in our opinion as we expect the home team to roll in this one. McDavid had 30 goals and 81 points in 55 games, so that’s a massive piece of the Oilers production missing. Carolina won 6-3 in Edmonton back in December and that was with McDavid on the ice. Furthermore, the Oilers played last night in Florida and while they won 4-1, they are just 35-77 playing without rest. Carolina is 40-18 its last 58 home games. Play on CAROLINA AAA |