Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT Historically speaking, the Lions have not fared well in their rivalry with the Packers. But the recent trends all seem to favor them. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last two years vs. Green Bay. Three of those wins came as underdogs. The Lions are off a bye this week and they've covered six of the last seven years after a bye. Monday Night Football seems like a nice place to return to action as Matt Stafford is 7-3 ATS all-time on MNF including 5-1 on the road. Detroit is the better offensive team here as they average more points and yards per play. Green Bay, even though 4-1, is being outgained both on a per play and per game basis. They've been outgained in three of the four wins and were only +2 in yards in the other. They gave up 563 yards last week to Dallas, a win that was largely tied to being +3 in turnovers. The last time Detroit played, they held Patrick Mahomes to zero touchdown passes. They didn't win that game (lost 34-30), but still covered, something they've done three straight times - all as underdogs. The line move is telling for this one. Aaron Rodgers won't have his favorite receiver, Davante Adams. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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10-14-19 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -185 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on ST. LOUIS +1.5 Oddsmakers had Washington as the favorite to win the NLCS before the series started. That's looking like a pretty smart position now as the Nationals won both games in St. Louis. Gone is the home field advantage in the series, but it would be wrong to write the Cardinals off this early in the series. They've got one of the best pitchers in baseball going on Monday. That would be Jack Flaherty. Remember Flaherty was favored to win his start in Atlanta in Game 2 and was even money for Game 5. The team split the pair, losing Game 2 by a score of 3-0 but winning Game 5, 13-1. Flaherty posted a 2.77 ERA in the two starts, allowing just 4 runs in 13 innings. Flaherty hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his previous 18 starts. He allowed zero runs in half of those 18 starts (9 times), a stretch that dates back to before the All Star Break. So even though he's facing Steven Strasburg and being backed by an offense that could barely get a hit the first two games, Flaherty +1.5 seems like a safe bet to us as he's a lock not to give up many runs. It hasn't mattered yet in this series, but the Cardinals do have the better bullpen. Washington didn't do much scoring in the first two games either. Play ST LOUIS on the RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA |
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10-14-19 | Avalanche v. Capitals -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON The Capitals host the unbeaten Avalanche late Monday afternoon in D.C. The catch here is while the Avs may be unbeaten, all four of their wins have come at home. Tonight is the first time they've got to hit the road and last year they were just 17-24 in road games. Washington is a surprising 0-2 at home so far, but did just win in Dallas 4-2 on Saturday. They'd lost three in a row prior to that win, which was a revenge spot. Not only was it the Caps first wins in regulation at Dallas since 1995, they'd just lost to the Stars at home last Tuesday. In all three of the Capitals losses this year, they had the lead entering the 3rd period. Two of those three losses came in overtime. So sometimes records can be misleading and they are here as Washington is the betting favorite for a reason and that reason is simple. They are a better team than the unbeaten Avalanche. Colorado's roster lacks depth and winning on the road is a lot harder than winning at home. Saturday's win over Arizona needed overtime. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-13-19 | Flames +120 v. Sharks | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CALGARY We played against the Flames last night. It was our Game of the Week. The Flames were in Vegas, a tough place to play, and the Golden Knights were hungry off back to back losses. The final score ended up being 6-2. Calgary has not won or lost consecutive times in the first two weeks of the season. So we expect them to battle back despite tonight being the second game of a back to back and third road game in four night. San Jose had not won a game this year before beating Chicago 5-4 Thursday. In the way, they equaled their number of goals scored from the first four games combined. With the situation being what it is, Cam Talbot will be in goal for the first time for the Flames. Any questions about him should be offset by the fact Sharks goalie Martin Jones has really struggled so far. He has an .854 save percentage and 4.56 goals against average in three games. San Jose has lost all three. The Flames are a great "grab" at plus money. Play on CALGARY AAA |
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10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers OVER 41.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER It's been confirmed that the Steelers are starting 3rd stringer Devlin Hodges Sunday night as backup Mason Rudolph is still unable to return from last week's concussion. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger's season is over after an injury suffered in the second game. That's the current state of the Steelers, who are 1-4 after suffering a tough 23-20 home loss to Baltimore in overtime. They did score with Hodges in the game as he went 7 of 9 for 63 yards. In College, Hodges won the Walter Payton Award in 2018 while at Samford, meaning he was the best player at the FCS level. Maybe he has a higher upside than Rudolph? We do think the Steelers will be able to score on a Chargers defense that's giving up 6.3 yards per play. Take away the ugly opener in New England and Pittsburgh has scored at least 20 points in every game. Los Angeles is off a bad home loss to Denver last week in which they scored only 13 points. But they turned it over twice inside the 5-yard line, so there easily could have more points for them. Philip Rivers and company, while short-handed, should bounce back tonight. RB Gordon is back after a lengthy holdout. The Under is 4-0 the Chargers last four games, but the Over is 4-1 in the last five matchups with the Steelers. The key angle here is that this is the lowest total of the season for either team. Game goes Over. Play OVER Pittsburgh-LA Chargers AAA |
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10-13-19 | Yankees v. Astros -153 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Astros are 4-2 off a shutout loss this season and 16-7 the last three seasons in this very situation. A stunning 7-0 defeat in Game 1 should only have them stronger for Game 2 when they'll send out Verlander, who is 4-0 in his postseason career against the Yankees including a pair of wins in the 2017 ALCS. Verlander lost his last start, which came on short rest. He has not dropped consecutive decisions even one time this year. Houston is 25-11 in his 36 starts, an individual campaign which could produce another Cy Young. Verlander is 11-4 at home with a 2.28 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. When he pitched here in Game 1 of the LDS, he didn't allow a run in seven innings and gave up just one hit. The Astros home record this year is 63-22. They don't lose back to back home games often. They did lose three in a row to Oakland last month. But before that it happened only three times all year and not since June. James Paxton is the Game 2 starter for the Yankees. The Yanks have won 12 straight times with Paxton on the mound. But he wasn't especially great in either of the last two and this is his toughest assignment of the season. The Astros are 21-5 the last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-13-19 | Cowboys -7 v. Jets | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DALLAS Dallas started 3-0, but is now 3-2 after suffering losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. So the Jets will be a welcome sight this Sunday. Sam Darnold is making his return here for the Jets, but they are more than just a quarterback away from competing with this Cowboys team. Dallas has the #1 ranked offense in the league. The Jets are 32nd. Dallas is 2nd on defense in number of third down conversions allowed. The Jets offense is the worst at converting third downs. The Cowboys feasted on losing teams in the 3-0 start, beating the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. QB Prescott is 13-5-2 ATS against losing teams. He's also 7-2-1 ATS as a starter when favored by more than six points. Prescott had a career-high 463 yards passing last week. The Jets have gained only 233 yards total the last two games. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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10-13-19 | Falcons v. Cardinals UNDER 52 | Top | 33-34 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Atlanta is favored in this one, but it sure doesn't feel like they should be. That's cause they've lost three in a row and four of five to open the season. Arizona is now 1-3-1 after picking up its first win last week at the expense of winless Cincinnati. The Falcons completely fell apart late in the game vs. Houston last week and ended up giving up 53 points. It was a one-possession game going into the final two minutes but they ended up losing by 21. We expect a better defensive effort this week. At the same time, they hadn't scored more than 24 in a game themselves before last week. The Cardinals had been held to 20 points or less in the three games prior to last week's win. Two of their top offensive players - RB Johnson and WR Kirk - may not play Sunday. The Under is 22-9 the Cardinals last 31 home games. The Cardinals have been settling for far too many field goals this year. 14 of 22 scoring drives have ended with a FG rather than a touchdown. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan turns it over too often in the red zone. Play UNDER Atlanta-Arizona AAA |
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10-13-19 | Bengals +12 v. Ravens | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI We don't expect the Ravens to lose here. But double-digit favorite isn't their best role. They are just 3 for their last 13 ATS in it. Also, John Harbaugh hasn't been good when laying points to the Bengals. Not only is he 4-11-1 including 1-6 L7 at the window, but he's gone just 7-9 straight up in those games, also losing six of the last eight outright. The Bengals are 0-5, but they've been a tougher out than you might think. Three of the losses have been in games decided by seven points or less. In all three, Cincy had a fourth quarter lead and two of them they were up at the two-minute warning. Two of the three close games were on the road where they're now on a 6-2 ATS run despite losing all eight games straight up. Baltimore may have success running the ball in this game, but that just means it'll be a "shorter" game with less big plays. Plus the Ravens defense has not been good recently, giving up 96 points the last three weeks. They are allowing 6.9 yards per play, which is worse than the Bengals much maligned defense. The last six meetings here in Baltimore have all been games decided by seven points or less. The Ravens have beaten Miami, Arizona and a Pittsburgh team that was down to its third-string QB. Two of those wins were by six points or less. Grab the points in this AFC North battle. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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10-13-19 | Redskins v. Dolphins +4 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI Here it is. Perhaps the worst regular season matchup we've seen in some time. It's the 0-5 Redskins taking on the 0-4 Dolphins. The only reason Miami didn't lose last week is because it was off. They have been the league's worst team so far, getting outscored 163-26. Washington has the dubious honor of being the league's next worst team. They've scored just 10 points the last two games. They've given up at least 31 in four of the five games. Just to show how unique this matchup is, it's only the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team at 0-5 or worse has been listed as a road favorite. The first was the Redskins in 1998 and they lost the game outright. While Miami is off a bye, Washington just fired its coach (Jay Gruden). While there's no denying how dubious the Dolphins have been, a team as bad as the Redskins should never be a road favorite. They (the Redskins) haven't been favored in any game since Week 9 of last year. This will be the 12 time in the Super Bowl era that two winless teams are meeting after Week 5. The home team is 8-3 ATS the previous 11 matchups. 0-4 or worse teams coming off a bye are 26-10 ATS all-time. Bill Callahan is the interim Redskins coach and he ended up being a disaster in Oakland. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State OVER 38 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER This is an insanely low total for a College Football game in 2019. Consider that Wyoming is averaging 31 points/game on its own, which would be basically just a touchdown shy of the number. Now we don't expect the Cowboys to score that many against San Diego State. This team is a very misleading 4-1 as they have been outgained in four of five games. Before beating UNLV 53-17 two weeks ago, the Cowboys had trailed by double digits in all four games. The defense gives up over 400 yards and is lucky to be allowing only 20.4 points/game. San Diego State has seen all five of its game stay Under so far and their participation is what has this total so low. Going back to last season, the Aztecs have had their issues scoring. But they should rediscover the end zone multiple times against this Wyoming defense. The Aztecs have scored at least 23 points in all three wins this year and are off nice road win against Colorado State. QB Agnew threw three touchdowns in the 24-10 win. The Over has hit 8 of the last 11 times these schools have met and not once was the total lower than it is here. By kickoff, there's a strong chance that this total will be the lowest for any NCAAF game played so far this season. Let's be honest here. It won't take much to send the game Over and with the game taking place in San Diego, you know the weather will not be a factor. Play OVER Wyoming-San Diego State AAA |
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10-12-19 | Cub Swanson v. Kron Gracie -175 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -175 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Kron Gracie (to win) The Gracie name will be forever intertwined with the Ultimate Fighting Championship due to Royce Gracie dominating the early days of the promotion when it was a very different sport. The latest Gracie to make an impact is Kron Gracie, who is 5-0 with all five wins coming by submission. He's back in the Octagon tonight to face the struggling Cub Swanson, whose UFC career seems to be headed in a much different direction. Swanson has lost four in a row, two of them by submission. Given the state of the respective careers here, this line looks to be way too short. Gracie just submitted Alex Caceras in his last fight. It was over in the 1st round and it's worth mentioning that Caceras hadn't been beaten that early going all the way back to 2011! Gracie is obviously going to take this fight to the ground ASAP and when it gets there he has an overwhelming advantage that will make the final result academic. Swanson has not won a fight by tapout since 2009! Nor has he even finished an opponent in any fashion going back to 2013. Any advantage Swanson could enjoy standing will be nullified by the fact he's going to be on the defensive, trying to avoid being taken down. This should be a quick and one-sided fight. Play on KRON GRACIE AAA |
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10-12-19 | Flames v. Golden Knights -137 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS Vegas started its season by sweeping a home and home against rival San Jose. They've since lost two straight. Even though it was at home, the loss to Boston can't be considered all that bad. The Bruins have looked really good so far. But a 4-1 loss at Arizona has to be considered the Golden Knights first "bad" performance of the young campaign. They look to rebound tonight, back at home, against a Calgary team that won the Pacific Division last year. The Flames, like the Knights, have won two and lost two. One of the Flames two losses was in overtime. That was as a -250 favorite at home vs. the Kings. They came back to beat Dallas 3-2 on the road Thursday, though it went to a shootout. Vegas has been far too careless with the puck their last two games. Fortunately that can be corrected. We lean on home ice advantage tonight. Calgary has never won in Vegas, losing all four prior trips. The home team was also 4-0 in the four overall meetings last season. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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10-12-19 | Yankees v. Astros -150 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON For the second time in the last three years, it will be the Astros meeting the Yankees in the American League Championship Series. Two years ago, Houston prevailed in a seven game series that saw the home team go 7-0. Fortunately for the Astros, they once again have the homefield edge. The only time that the Yanks had to come to Minute Maid Park in 2019 was back in April. They were swept in that three-game series. Before winning Game 3 over Minnesota in the LDS, New York had lost 10 of 12 playoff road games. They are just 2-12 their last 14 road games in LCS play including the 0 for 4 in Houston back in 2017. We suppose the only question mark with the Astros going into Game 1 would be Zack Grienke facing this potent Yankees lineup. Greinke did not pitch well in Game 3 of the LDS vs. Tampa Bay where he gave up three home runs and six runs total in a 10-3 loss. But that's not something we usually see from him and certainly its even less common to see Greinke turn in two bad starts in a row. He pitched well the two times he faced NY in the regular season. In 12 2/3 innings, he allowed only three runs. Greinke has lost just once at home this year. For the Yankees, Tanaka often struggles on the road where his ERA is above 6.00. He got to pitch at home in the LDS. The Yankees are 5-7 this year as underdogs of +125 to +175 on the road. Houston is an impressive 21-4 after a day off. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-12-19 | USC +11 v. Notre Dame | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on USC Notre Dame has had a couple close calls with the pointspread the last two weeks. That may seem like an odd statement for a team coming off a 52-0 victory last week, but they were actually favored to beat Bowling Green by 45.5. The week prior they took advantage of some late turnovers to down Virginia 35-20 as 10.5-point favorites. Believe us when we saw that the Fighting Irish wouldn't have won that game had they not been +5 in turnovers. The week before that was the loss to Georgia. So it's been a bit of an exhausting stretch for Brian Kelly's team and now USC comes to South Bend for a Saturday night battle. The Trojans were off last week and we love the spot for them getting this many points. Two weeks ago, they upset Utah despite having to turn to third string QB Matt Fink. Fink threw for 381 yards in that game but came back down to Earth against Washington, throwing three costly interceptions in a 28-14 loss. Despite the final score, USC slightly outgained Washington in that contest. The same was true in the Trojans other loss, which was by three at BYU in overtime. Kedon Slovis has been cleared to return from a concussion this week and will get the start. Though Fink had the big game vs. Utah, consider Slovis an upgrade at the position. The Fighting Irish have covered four straight games, but their "luck" runs out here. You should expect Slovis and the USC offense to take better care of the football than previous ND opponents have. Play on USC AAA |
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10-12-19 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -109 | 76 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEBRASKA Minnesota has managed to stay unbeaten, but four of its five wins have been by no more than seven points. Last week's 40-17 triumph over Illinois is the outlier. At the start of the year, we certainly didn't envision Nebraska being a seven-point underdog in this game. No one did. But the Cornhuskers have suffered two defeats already, one to Ohio State, and are dealing with some uncertainty at quarterback heading into Saturday. Adrian Martinez had to leave last week's game vs. Northwestern with a knee injury and did not return. The team is preparing as if backup Noah Vedral is going to get the call and that's fine by us. Vedral followed coach Scott Frost to Lincoln as a UCF transfer. It's telling that Minnesota still isn't ranked despite its 5-0 start. We've got these teams rated pretty evenly and that's even after factoring in the Gophers homefield advantage. This line seems to be an overreaction to the Nebraska QB situation, which we feel is unwarranted. The Cornhuskers are 8-4 ATS their previous 12 road games. Last year, they were winless coming into the Minnesota game and won 53-28. Again, the Gophers struggled to get by the likes of South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. They only beat Purdue by 7 despite the Boilermakers losing both their starting QB and top receiver in that game. It would be great if Martinez could play, but we're prepared to roll with Vedral if necessary. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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10-12-19 | Michigan State +11 v. Wisconsin | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -114 | 72 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Sparty simply didn't have the horses to keep up with Ohio State last Saturday night in Columbus. The game got away from them late in the second quarter when the Buckeyes put 10 points on the board in the final 2:24 to go into halftime with a 27-10 halftime advantage. It is worth pointing out that - absent the second quarter - they held Ohio State to one touchdown in the other three quarters. Having to play Ohio State and Wisconsin back to back weeks on the road almost seems unfair, but this matchup should be more friendly from the Michigan State perspective. Wisconsin is less athletic and less dynamic in the passing game. We know the Badgers will lean heavily on the road, but that plays right into the hands of Mark Dantonio's defense, which ranked 1st in the country at stopping the run last year and is 21st so far this year. The Spartans haven't had many bad years under Dantonio. Really, an injury-riddled and unfortunate 2016 (where they went 3-9) was the only one. Take that season away and they've gone 10-1 SU the week after suffering a double digit loss and the only loss in the situation was by a field goal. This is a lot of points for Wisconsin to lay in what should be a methodical, grind it out type game. They've been blowing out lesser teams so far (including Michigan), but struggled to get by Northwestern here in Madison and this should be a similar kind of game against a more talented opponent. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by six points or fewer. Though currently unranked, we think the Spartans are still a Top 25 team. We don't see them being blown out back to back weeks. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-12-19 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee +7 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE Mississippi State (3-2 SU) comes in as the favorite here in Knoxville against a struggling 1-4 Tennessee team. Though it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs are favored, two weeks ago they looked completely incompetent in getting run off the field by Auburn. They lost the game 56-23 and while they got a week off to recoup, we still would want no part of laying points on the road with them. In another competitive environment, they lost to Kansas State and that was at home. Tennessee obviously has its own set of issues after being blown out by Florida and Georgia. But they did play Georgia tough in the first half as they were up 14-13 with under two minutes left in the first half. From there, they were outscored 30-0. But this is a game the Vols think they can win. If there's still any hope of making a bowl game, they may need this one. Mississippi State hasn't won in Knoxville since 1986 (0-4 since) so expecting them to win by more than a touchdown, in a down year, seems unlikely. Tennessee has won 9 of the last 11 meetings overall. Freshman Maurer remains the starting QB on Rocky Top after making his debut in the role vs. Georgia. Miss State's QB situation is a little more murky as Tommy Stevens and Garrett Shrader are both banged up. Tennessee has covered only 3 of its last 17 home games, which is pretty incredible when you think about it, but Miss State is only 1-6 ATS its past seven road games. This is a spot where taking the points should come in handy. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-11-19 | Colorado v. Oregon OVER 57.5 | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -116 | 55 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Once again, the Pac 12 is not looking very strong. Oregon is probably the best the conference has to offer and they are ranked #13. The Ducks only loss was to Auburn, a game they led virtually the entire time. Since that loss, they've battled back to win four in a row, even though QB Justin Herbert really hasn't been as good as advertised. Last week, the Ducks were held to a season low 17 points in a win over California. That was a good defense they were up against though and Herbert did extend his streak of games with at least one touchdown pass to 33. The Ducks also gained over 400 yards and had double the first downs Cal did. So it was a pretty impressive win. Expect them to find more offensive success this week against a struggling Colorado defense that hasn't seemed to keep anyone in check. Five games have seen the Buffaloes be remarkably consistent, giving up between 30 and 35 points. We project it to be very likely Oregon scores more than 35 in this game. The Ducks defense has also been consistent - consistently good that is. They've allowed a total of 22 points the last four games, giving up no more than 7 to any one opponent. But Colorado can score. They average nearly 35 points/game. All but one of Colorado's games have seen 65 or more total points scored. There's likely to be a lot of Overs involving Colorado moving forward and this should be one of them. The have a QB in Steven Montez who is on pace for 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Play OVER Colorado-Oregon AAA |
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10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals -120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS We think it's a little interesting that it's Washington favored to win the NLCS. After all, the Nationals were not expected to be here. They appeared dead in Game 5 vs. the Dodgers, down 3-0, but shocking back to back home runs off Clayton Kershaw brought them back to life and allowed them to win in extra innings. Earlier that day, St. Louis pounded Atlanta 13-1, becoming the first team in postseason history to score 10 runs in the first inning. The Cardinals are the ones with homefield advantage in the series and that's huge for a starting rotation whose individual members almost all pitch better here. Miles Mikolas is up first. In his only LDS start (Game 1), his team got the win thanks to five solid innings where Mikolas allowed only one run on three hits. He also threw a scoreless inning of relief in Game 4. He has a 2.41 ERA his past three starts and a 3.01 ERA/1.05 WHIP at home this season. Mikolas got to face Washington twice in the regular season and he ended up allowing just four runs in 12 innings. The Cardinals don't give up many runs at home (just 3.6 per game) so them getting handed homefield advantage is a big deal. Anibal Sanchez is the Game 1 starter for the Nationals. He is 2-4 in eight career starts vs. St. Louis and took a loss against them back in April. While the starting pitching matchup may seem close to even, the Cardinals have a substantial edge in the bullpen. Really good value on the home team for Game 1. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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10-11-19 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +3.5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on NEW MEXICO This rivalry in the Mountain West Conference has squarely belonged to Colorado State in recent years. The Rams have beaten New Mexico nine straight times and covered five of the last six. However, it's not like the Lobos haven't been getting closer. They lost by only two points (20-18) in Fort Collins a year ago and then by only three the last time CSU came to Albuquerque. Losing by double digits to San Jose State last Friday wasn't a good look for New Mexico, who continues to play "quarterback roulette." Bob Davie has had six different QB's start the last 25 games, none of which have had very much success. But Colorado State coming in as a road favorite just reeks. The Rams haven't even beaten a FBS opponent this year. Their only win was 38-13 over Western Illinois. They've lost four straight since their own QB, Colin Hill, was lost for the season against Arkansas. New Mexico has won both home games this year. There was an excuse for the Lobos losing 32-21 at San Jose State last week and that excuse was six turnovers. Take better care of the football this week and they can pull the upset. Colorado State has turned it over 16 times in six games. They've also lost outright three of the previous six times they've been a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Another disadvantage the Rams face here is their last game was Saturday while New Mexico played last Friday. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-11-19 | Islanders v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Carolina has grabbed the bull by the horns, starting out 4-0. Their most recent win saw them score six times and that was on the road. But they may find some issues scoring tonight as they are matched up with an Islanders team that gave up the fewest goals in hockey a year ago. New York will be looking to put an ugly 5-2 loss to Edmonton behind it. That loss occurred Tuesday, the same day the Hurricanes won 6-3 in Florida. But that loss on Tuesday isn't the only thing the Islanders would like to forget. Last Spring, they were swept in the first round of the playoffs by Carolina. Then again, that probably has them extra motivated coming into tonight's game. Regardless of the motivation factor, we like this to be a low-scoring affair. The Islanders have scored only seven goals in three games. Though off to the 4-0 start, three of Carolina's wins have come in overtime, so they've only topped three goals in regulation one time. The Under is 54-14-4 in the Islanders last 72 games as an underdog. Play UNDER New York-Carolina AAA |
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10-10-19 | Golden Knights -135 v. Coyotes | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VEGAS Before the season, there was a lot of chatter about how good Vegas might be and so far that chatter seems pretty well justified. The Golden Knights opened their season by sweeping a home and home with San Jose. But then they lost on home ice to Boston 4-3 on Tuesday night. That's a good Bruins team though. There won't be too many visitors that strong showing up at T-Mobile Arena this season. Let us not forget that Vegas has gone 54-23-7 in regular season home games during their short existence. But even though tonight's game is on the road, Arizona is not a team they ought to be too concerned about. The Coyotes are 0-2 and have scored only one goal on the season. Improved last season, the 'Yotes may very well take a "step back" this year. Vegas is averaging four goals/game, so it's likely they'll simply have too much offense for the home team to keep up here. Going back to last year, Arizona has lost seven of eight as an underdog. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND Stop us when you've heard this one before. The Patriots are once again the class of the NFL. As one of the league's two undefeateds, they've outscored their five opponents by 121 points. Some of the competition can certainly be called into question. After all, they've faced the league's three worst teams - Dolphins, Jets, Redskins - who are a combined 0-13. But they've still only allowed two offensive touchdowns all season. One was a 65-yard run last week. Just to show how much they're in front of the rest of the league, this will already be the fourth time this year that they're being favored by at least two touchdowns. Thursday night's opponent is the Giants, who already had some of the wind taken out of their sails with last week's poor effort vs. Minnesota. After rookie QB Daniel Jones guided them to a couple victories, the Vikings game went a lot differently as the offense barely gained 200 yards in a 28-10 loss. New York easily could be 1-4 right now with the only convincing win coming against the winless Redskins. Rookie QB's traditionally do not fare well against Bill Belichick, so we'll call for Jones to struggle again this week. The Giants defense has already allowed 490 or more yards in three games and is giving up 6.8 yards per play. So good luck stopping Tom Brady. Lay the big number as New England is 40-17-2 ATS its last 59 home games. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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10-10-19 | Syracuse v. NC State -4.5 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NC STATE Syracuse and North Carolina State are both 3-2 entering Thursday night's ACC matchup, but it feels like whomever loses this game is going to see their season go south in a hurry. Syracuse won 10 games last year. But having to replace the school's all-time passing leader was going to be a chore. After opening the season with a 24-0 win over Liberty (whose coach Hugh Freeze was literally laying in bed), the Orange were subsequently squeezed by both Maryland and Clemson. They lost those games by a combined score of 104-26. They've since beaten Western Michigan and Holy Cross, but that doesn't mean much given the nature of the opponents. They're dealing with a lot of injuries right now, especially on defense, but they're also still using a backup center. Six freshman started the game vs. Holy Cross. QB DeVito had to leave that game with an upper body injury, but will play in this game. Speaking of quarterbacks, NC State turns to a new one Thursday as Bailey Hockman replaces the ineffective Matthew McKay. The Wolfpack like to throw and McKay simply wasn't getting the ball downfield the way coach Doeren wanted. NC State is on a three-game ATS losing streak and was beaten soundly by both West Virginia and Florida State. But they are 3-0 in Raleigh this year and 14-2 their last 16 at home. Syracuse is 4-16 SU on the ACC road since 2014. A change in quarterback should lead to better results for the home team this week as NC State actually played better than you think in the 31-13 loss to Florida State as total yardage and first downs were basically dead even. Play on NORTH CAROLINA STATE AAA |
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10-10-19 | Rays v. Astros OVER 7 | Top | 1-6 | Push | 0 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Not many people expected the Rays to extend the Astros this far, but here we are and it's the last League Division Series to be decided. The home team is 4-0 in the series and with Game 5 in Houston, you probably won't find many "takers" on the Rays outside of their own clubhouse. We acknowledge the unlikelihood of the Rays advancing (though we did have them in Game 3), but won't be getting involved with the Astros either due to the current price. We are actually 4-0 in this series having cashed Houston in Game 1, the Under in Game 2, Tampa Bay in Game 3 and the Under in Game 4. Now it's time to play the Over, which may sound strange as Gerrit Cole is pitching for the Astros and we did take the Under in his Game 2 start. As masterful as he was that day and as dominant as he's been throughout the second half, the Astros offense is more than capable of scoring enough on its own to help send this one Over. They average 6.0 runs/game at home for the year. Tampa Bay did score 10 runs in Game 3, six of them against Zack Greinke. So don't rule out the notion of them hitting Cole better tonight than they did in Game 2. Tyler Glasnow is the Game 5 starter for the Rays. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 and gave up two runs. The Over is 5-1 in the Rays past six LDS road games. The Over is also 5-2 in Cole's last seven home starts despite how well he has pitched in those games. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Houston AAA |
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10-09-19 | Nationals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5 (run line) The LDS between the Nationals and Dodgers will go to a Game 5 in Los Angeles Wednesday night. Starting for Washington will be Stephen Strasburg. Starting for LA will be Walker Buehler (not Clayton Kershaw). As good as Buehler and the Dodgers have been, the opportunity to take Strasburg and the Nationals +1.5 (run line) in this situation is even better. Buehler was sensational in winning Game 1. He gave up just one hit in six innings. But Strasburg was equally as sensational in winning Game 2. He allowed just one run and three hits in six innings, beating Kershaw. The numbers from Strasburg's last several starts are also eye-opening. It's a 0.95 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in his last three as he's given up two runs and 10 hits in 19 innings. He has 26 strikeouts and just three walks. For the sake of comparison, Buehler has allowed six runs his last three starts (only 16 innings) and has 10 walks. In a game that rates pretty close to a toss-up, laying juice to get the 1.5 runs seems like a smart move. Washington has proven it can beat the mighty Dodgers. They are 3-3 here in LA this season and 6-6 the L3 seasons. Play WASHINGTON +1.5 AAA |
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10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 70.5 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER This is an early season showdown in the Sun Belt and we're glad to see it get the national spotlight it deserves. Appalachian State is a team you probably are aware of as the Mountaineers first made their presence felt over a decade ago (then as a FCS team) by upsetting Michigan. It's been a successful transition to FBS and the Sun Belt Conference as they are 35-6 their last 41 league games. They have won or shared the SBC regular season title each of the last four seasons. Already this year, the Mountaineers upset one Power 5 team (North Carolina), part of a 4-0 SU start. But Wednesday is probably their toughest test of the season as they are facing a Louisiana team that has covered the spread in all five of its games so far, beating the oddsmakers expectations by about 70 points. The only loss for the Ragin Cajuns this year was the opener 38-28 to Mississippi State. Since then, they've scored 35 or more in every game, their last three all going Over. Similarly, App State has scored 34 or more in all four of its games and the last three have been Overs. But with a high total and high stakes, we're gonna call for the game Wednesday night to be lower-scoring than expected. Last year, this was a 27-17 game, won by Appalachian State. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings. The Under is 14-5 the last 19 times App State scored more than 40 points their previous game (beat Coastal Carolina 56-37). The Under is 4-1 the last five times Louisiana has been coming off a bye. Play UNDER Appalachian State-Louisiana AAA |
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10-09-19 | Devils v. Flyers -122 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We haven't seen too much from either the Devils or Flyers on this young season, but we think we've seen enough to take the latter at home tonight. Philadelphia has played just one game so far and it was a 4-3 win over Chicago over in Prague. New Jersey has lost twice, including blowing a 4-0 lead to Winnipeg in the first game. That was followed up by a 7-2 loss to a Buffalo team that last season finished with only 76 points. Of course, the Devils finished with only 72 points and were the last place team in the Metropolitan. It was quite curious (to us) to see how much 'preseason hype' NJ is getting coming off that kind of season. They were projected (by oddsmakers) for 90.5 points, which would be right at the cusp of playoff contention. We just don't see it as the goaltending here remains pretty terrible and Philly got off 38 shots in the win over Chicago. This is the only home that the Flyers get to play between now and October 19th. So they should come out focused and ready to play. New Jersey also has had plenty of rest coming into this game, but they are 0-4 the last four times they've played with three or more days rest. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -105 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA It's come down to a winner-take-all game between the Cardinals and Braves. After splitting two games in Atlanta, the same thing happened in St. Louis. The Cardinals needed 10 innings to win Game 4. Interestingly, the team that has been trailing entering the 8th inning has won three of the four games. That includes both Cardinals victories. The two games St. Louis won saw them score five or more runs. The two that they lost saw them score 1 total. The problem for Game 5 is they are facing a pitcher they failed to score any runs against and that's Mike Foltynewicz, who previously started Game 2. Foltynewicz outdueled Jack Flaherty, which is not easy to do. But Foltynewicz now has a 1.51 ERA and 0.82 WHIP his last seven starts. He's allowed 0 or 1 run in five of his last six. It's five total runs allowed his last 40 innings. Flaherty allowed all three runs in the Game 2 loss. He does have slightly better numbers than Foltynewicz in his last seven starts and certainly the better numbers overall. But the issue is that Game 5 takes place in Atlanta. Flaherty's numbers go up on the road and the team actually has a losing record in his away starts (8-10). Atlanta is a good home team and easily could have put this series away already. They finally do so Wednesday. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-08-19 | Sharks v. Predators -159 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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10-08-19 | Astros v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Tampa Bay managed to keep its season going (at least for another day) with a stunning 10-3 win in Game 3. We weren't too surprised as we backed the Rays +1.5 Monday and did call for more offensive than expected. Still, beating Zack Greinke and the Astros by that kind of margin was eye-opening. But the oddsmakers are rightly giving the Rays little chance in Game 4 as the pitching matchup appears to be as one-sided as any we'll see all postseason. Justin Verlander goes for Houston. He started Game 1 and didn't allow a run in seven innings. He only allowed one hit. Verlander is of course on the short list for the AL Cy Young as he has a 2.54 ERA and 0.80 WHIP for the season. After yesterday's offensive explosion, TB should be back to the lack of production at the plate that we saw in both Games 1 and 2. Even with his last three starts all ending up as Overs, the Under remains 22-12 in all Verlander starts this season. The Under had been 10-1 in the Rays' previous 11 home playoff games (before yesterday). The price is obviously too high to play Houston in this matchup, so it's on Diego Castillo and the rest of the Rays staff to limit what the Astros do at the plate. Considering TB allows only 3.8 runs/game at Tropicana Field, something we cited in our Game 3 analysis, we think they are up to that challenge. Play UNDER Houston-Tampa Bay AAA |
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10-08-19 | Oilers v. Islanders -155 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the ISLANDERS We used Edmonton as our Game of the Week on Saturday. While the Oilers won, they made beating the Kings a lot harder than it should have been. After scoring first, they ended up trailing most of the game. It wasn't until a power play goal with just 6:32 remaining that they took the lead for good and it was a rather ugly effort to boot where they gave up five goals. Tonight they face a team that won't be nearly that generous at the opposite end. The Islanders were the league leaders in fewest goals allowed last year and have given up just three in their first two games of this season. The last one was a 4-1 win over Winnipeg. This will be New York's third straight home game while it's Edmonton's first time playing on the road. Home team won both times these teams met last year. No matter who the Islanders elect to go with in goal, they'll have an edge there in tonight's game. Edmonton is just 18-46 its last 64 games as an underdog. New York has won 16 of its last 21 non-conference games and is 23-8 its last 31 as favorite of -151 to -200. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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10-07-19 | Yankees v. Twins +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -119 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA +1.5 The Twins have simply had no luck when it comes to facing the Yankees in the playoffs. They've lost 12 straight postseason games to them and 15 straight postseason games overall! Tonight, their season hangs in the balance, but they are back home with Jake Odorizzi set to start. Hindsight is 20/20, but maybe manager Rocco Baldelli should have kept Odorizzi as his Game 2 starter as Randy Dobnak was no match for the powerful Yankees lineup. But the Twins have a powerful lineup of their own, one that also hit 300+ home runs in the regular season, something no other team in baseball history had done prior to 2019. Giving them an additional 1.5 runs to work with at home seems like a smart play at home, especially because this is the first time in the series Minnesota looks to have the edge in the starting pitching matchup. Odorizzi has an 8-2 team start record his 10 trips to the mound. None of those have seen him give up more than three earned runs. It's a streak that goes all the way back to the end of July. The Yankees turn to Severino, who pitched just three times this year due to a shoulder injury. Up 2-0 in the series, this is probably the best time to try him, but we still think he's far from a safe bet at this point. While history is not on the Twins side tonight, we are, at least with them getting 1.5 runs. Play MINNESOTA on the RUN LINE. AAA |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers -4.5 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SAN FRANCISCO While the Browns grabbed all the offseason headlines, it's been the 49ers starting 3-0 that has been the league's biggest surprise so far. Tonight, they host the 2-2 Browns, who are making their second appearance on MNF in three weeks. The first couldn't have gone much better as they routed the hapless Jets 23-3. But last week's 40-25 win in Baltimore was probably the most impressive we've seen Cleveland look all season. But we still have question marks about this team - on both sides of the ball. Over half of Nick Chubb's 166 yards rushing against the Ravens came on one play (88 yard touchdown run). The 49ers have a top five run defense, so look for Chubb to struggle to duplicate last week's success. QB Mayfield is often guilty of holding onto the ball for too long, leading to poor decisions or the offensive line breaking down. Again, look for the 49ers defensive front to be the biggest factor in this game. San Francisco is off a bye and West Coast teams typically have the edge over Eastern Time Zone opponents in these primetime games. So the situation definitely favors the home team. The 49ers offense, save for five turnovers against the Steelers, has been outstanding the last two games as they've rolled up over 1,000 yards! They've averaged over 6.5 yards per play during that time. That they still beat Pittsburgh, even though they were -3 in turnovers, is actually quite impressive. The defense held the Steelers to only 239 total yards. The Niners are a better team than the Browns and those "expecting" them to lose a game are going to be sorely disappointed. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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10-07-19 | Blues v. Maple Leafs -125 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO St. Louis, the defending Stanley Cup Champions, started the season with a disappointing overtime loss to Washington on Opening Night. But they bounced back three days later to defeat Dallas by the same score of 3-2. They are now set to play on the road for the first time against a Toronto team that won its first two games before losing here at home to Montreal Saturday, 6-5. That was a rough loss for the Maple Leafs considering they led 4-1 going into the third period. It wound up going into a shootout and that's when they eventually fell. The Blues rallied with two third period goals to beat Dallas, so they easily could be 0-2 while the Leafs could easily be 3-0 right now. The Montreal game was the second in back to back nights, so maybe that explains Toronto's failure down the stretch. Whatever the reason was, look for them to come out motivated on Monday. This is a bit of a revenge game as they've lost all four games with St. Louis the last two years and 14 of the last 19 home games against them. The Leafs are doing an excellent job getting the puck on the net, averaging 36 shots and 4.7 goals per game. They win here. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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10-07-19 | Astros v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 The Rays are finding out the hard way just how difficult facing this Astros starting rotation can be in a postseason format. As expected, Tampa has struggled to score runs here, managing just three total in the first two games and none of those came against Houston starters Verlander and Cole. Now they are set to face Zack Grienke. At least they will do so at Tropicana Field where during the regular season the Rays allowed just 3.8 runs/game themselves. It stands to reason that the game should be more competitive now. Also the Rays are going with Charlie Morton, the winner of the Wild Card Game, who allowed just one run across five innings. The Rays have now won Morton's last six starts. Morton has actually been one of the more consistent starters in the American League all season. He has a 23-11 team start record overall and his numbers at home are very good. His ERA is 2.59. His WHIP is 0.96. In their only previous trip to Tampa this year (very early in season), the Astros actually lost three of the four games. Play TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-06-19 | Colts v. Chiefs OVER 56 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Over We know the Chiefs are going to score as they've put up at least 26 points in all games started by Patrick Mahomes. They've gone over 30 in three of four this year. The one exception was a 28-10 win over Oakland where they scored all 28 points in a single quarter. The Colts defense just gave up 31 points in a loss to the Raiders last week, so this hardly seems like an ideal matchup for them. But of course, the Chiefs defense isn't very good either. They've given up 26 points or more to every opponent but the Raiders. Indianapolis should be good for at least 24 points by the end of this game as that's the threshold they've hit in three of four games, a matchup with Tennessee (top five scoring defense) the lone exception. The Over is 6-0 when the Chiefs gained at least 350 total yards in their last game. They gained 438 in last week's wild 34-30 win over the Lions. That game could have featured even more scoring were in not for turnovers by both teams. The Chiefs defense actually ended up giving up more than 450 yards. Three of the Chiefs games this year have seen at least 61 total points scored. This number is high, but the issue is oddsmakers just don't seem willing to open the number higher. Until they do, KC strictly remains an Over team. Play OVER Indianapolis-Kansas City AAA *Bonus Pick Chiefs 1st Half |
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10-06-19 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Bengals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 118 h 17 m | Show |
THis is an 8* play on ARIZONA A battle of winless teams has "upset" written all over it, if you can even call it that. The 0-3-1 Cardinals are underdogs to the 0-4 Bengals, but it's the dog that's played better in our opinion. Cincinnati looked absolutely dreadful Monday night in a 27-3 loss to Pittsburgh. This team just doesn't have much. It was just 175 total yards gained against a bad Steelers defense. Two times in the first three weeks, the Bengals were game on the road. They came up one point short in Seattle and only four points short in Buffalo. But really the only "good" game was the Seattle one. They were shutout in the first half by the Bills before a second half rally proved futile. Cincy has gotten crushed by the 49ers 41-17, their only home game so far. Arizona was competitive the first two games, tying Detroit and losing by only six to Baltimore. But losing back to back home games by double digits was certainly disappointing. Still, we rate Arizona as the better team here. With them taking the points, it's an automatic play for us. Both teams have offensive line issues, but the Bengals are worse. Kyler Murray will make more plays than Andy Dalton. Cincy is not only 1-6 ATS off a division loss, they are 1-6 straight up. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the TITANS The 2-2 Titans host the 3-1 Bills and the big story heading into this game is who will play quarterback for the road team. Josh Allen was knocked out of last week's 16-10 loss to the Patriots. For much of the week, there was speculation that Matt Barkley would have to start for Buffalo. But Allen has reportedly cleared concussion protocol and will be under center. We're still taking Tennessee. After back to back losses, the Titans looked good last week in a 24-10 upset of Atlanta. You wouldn't know it was an upset simply by watching as they controlled that game from start to finish. After playing three of their first four games on the road, it'll be nice playing at home this week. The Titans were 12-4 SU at home the last two years, but did lose here to the Colts in Week 2. But they were ahead in that game in the 4th quarter. Buffalo left a lot on the line last week in an unsuccessful bid to upset the Patriots at home. The Bills did win their first two road games, but those were against the Jets and Giants. Tennessee is better and should shut down the Bills offense. Turnovers could be a determining factor. Marcus Mariota is the only QB in the league to start every game and not have a turnover. Allen has six interceptions and two fumbles. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-06-19 | Patriots v. Redskins OVER 42 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -102 | 53 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Patriots could go Over this total themselves. Mark it down. One of the NFL's two 4-0 teams, New England heads to D.C. this weekend to take on the Redskins, who are one of the league's four 0-4 teams. Obviously, this is a gross mismatch. But the pointspread reflects that. What the O/U line doesn't reflect, however, it just how bad the Washington defense is. They gave up over 30 points the last three games, one of them against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears (who were struggling to move the ball previous to that game) and then 24 more to the Giants last week. It easily could have been more than 24 points allowed last week, but the Giants turned it over four times. You can bet Tom Brady won't be that careless with the ball this week. The Patriots offense will also be eager to atone for last week's subpar effort, which came against a very good Bills defense. They go from facing one of the league's best defenses to one of its worst. Colt McCoy (yikes!) and the Washington offense probably won't do much here, but a single TD or maybe 10 points might be all we need here for an Over. Play OVER New England-Washington AAA |
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10-05-19 | Kings v. Oilers -150 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on EDMONTON It's the season opener for Los Angeles while Edmonton is playing its second game after beating Vancouver 3-2 on Opening Night. We don't think that's any kind of advantage here for the Kings, and possibly it may prove to be a disadvantage. For starters, this is not a good team. LA finished last in the Pacific a season ago with only 71 points. The only team in the league that finished with fewer points was Ottawa (64). The Oilers have at least gotten a chance to get out on the ice and skate. They looked pretty good in downing the Canucks as they scored three goals on just 22 shots. The most encouraging sign of all was Connor McDavid scoring the game winner. The Kings do not project to be a whole lot better for the 2019-20 season and are an easy fade here. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
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10-05-19 | Rays v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER We were on the Astros in Game 1, a relatively easy call as they rolled to a 6-2 victory. Justin Verlander did his job by throwing seven shutout innings and Houston led 6-0 by the time they went to the bullpen. Though Tampa Bay did end up scoring twice in the top of the eighth, they were faced with an insurmountable edge. Those two runs that the Rays scored weren't totally insignificant though, pardon the pun, as they did send the game Over the total. Given that the game was still a scoreless tie through four innings, that had to be a heartbreaker for Under bettors. We'll provide them with some much needed relief for Game 2 though as this one should stay Under. The Rays go from facing Verlander to now having to deal w/ Gerritt Cole. That's rough. Cole set team records in the regular season by winning his last 16 decisions and striking out 326 batters. His 2.50 ERA was not only a career-best, but also topped all American League starters this year. So look for the Rays to have another tough night at the plate. If they are to have any chance of winning Game 2, it will be because of their own starter, Blake Snell, last year's Cy Young winner. While it's been awhile since Snell pitched more than three innings (missed two months due to elbow surgery), we've got confidence that he'll pitch relatively well in this spot. The Under is 4-0 in Snell's previous four starts vs. the Astros. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Houston AAA |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +20 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Right about now, you won't find many takers willing to step up and get in front of this Ohio State juggernaut as the Buckeyes have rolled through their first five opponents. Those five opponents have been outscored 262-43. Half of the points allowed came in the first game, a 45-21 over Florida Atlantic. Nebraska was no match last week, even with the game in Lincoln, as OSU won there 48-7. But one team we're banking on "stepping up to bat" is Michigan State. The Spartans will be Ohio State's toughest test yet in what promises to be the first game the Buckeyes don't score at least 40 points. Michigan State did give up 31 last week to Indiana, but continues to have one of the best defenses in the entire country as they allow just 15 points game. A straight up win is probably out of the realm of possibility Saturday night in Columbus, but the underdog should be able to keep this game relatively tight. How often do you see Michigan State getting this many points? Not often. In the past five seasons, the Spartans have been an underdog of 20 or more points only two times. Those games were against Michigan and Ohio State in the forgettable 2016 season and both times Sparty covered, losing by only a total of nine points. They were a double digit dog once last year (at Penn State) and took the game on the field. Dantonio has won twice in Columbus before. The last two meetings haven't gone well, but we expect a focused effort from the underdog Saturday night that will lead them to covering the spread. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-05-19 | Georgia v. Tennessee +25.5 | Top | 43-14 | Loss | -107 | 125 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE You probably won't be seeing anyone pick Tennessee on College GameDay Saturday morning on ESPN. The Vols come into this game with Georgia as massive underdogs at Neyland Stadium and that can't come as a shock given their early season losses to Georgia State and BYU. Georgia is a top three team in the country having been to the playoff each of the past two years. But with the pointspread, there's hope for UT as Georgia is just 3-9-1 ATS the L13 years in this rivalry game. This will be among the biggest pointspreads ever for Georgia-Tennessee. While there's no defending those first two games for Tennessee, or the last one against Florida, they are certainly capable of staying within the number. Before being blown out each of the last two years by UGA, the previous five meetings were decided by a total of 23 points. Both teams are off a bye, which makes this an interesting handicap. We played against Georgia two weeks ago when they hosted Notre Dame. That was a winner for us. This game now means more to Tennessee as their season could snowball rather quickly. It's hard to wrap your head around the fact the Vols are just 3-13 ATS their previous 16 home games. But rarely are they getting a number of this magnitude. They failed to cover a similar spread last year vs. Alabama, but they're a better team now (despite the record). Coach Jeremy Pruitt is being coy with his quarterback situation, which may provide an early advantage. Bottom line is that the number is just too large here to pass up. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-05-19 | Rice v. UAB OVER 42.5 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER UAB will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss it suffered last week at Western Kentucky. The Blazers were three-point favorites, but went down by a score of 20-13 thanks in no small part to turning the ball over four times. All four turnovers were interceptions thrown by QB Tyler Johnston III. They led to just six points (two field goals) by WKU, but it could have been worse as one came at the end of the first half. It was a big step back for Johnston, who had thrown for over 300 yards each of the previous two games. It was also UAB's 1st Conference USA loss since the meaningless regular season finale against Middle Tennessee last year. Before that, the Blazers had won 11 straight conference games. They are unbeaten at home since the program returned to the field in 2917 (14-0 SU). Rice meanwhile is still searching for its first win of the year as they are 0-5 against what has been a challenging schedule. The Owls have just three wins going back to 2017, but have generally been more competitive in 2019. They took Louisiana Tech to OT last week, for example. But the defense is still giving up a 68.3% completion rate to opposing QB's and 6.3 yards per play. So sfter scoring a season-low 13 points last week, we look for the UAB offense to rebound here. This was a 42-0 game last year. Look for Rice to definitely get on the board Saturday and them doing so should be enough to help this one get Over a low number. The Over has hit each of the last four times the teams have met here in Birmingham. Play OVER Rice-UAB AAA |
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10-05-19 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -7 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEBRASKA Northwestern's reputation as a dog seems to precede itself here. While the Wildcats did cover last week as road dogs, they did so thanks to a huge number at Wisconsin. The Badgers couldn't possibly match the intensity from the previous week against Michigan and that showed right from the opening kickoff. But don't forget about what happened two weeks ago when Northwestern hosted Michigan State. They were the rare instance of the public being on the dog and got waxed by Sparty 31-10. We took MSU in that one, saying that Pat Fitzgerald's ATS record as an underdog didn't hold any water with us this year. Well, that still holds true. Northwestern was very lucky to win 10 games last year. Whatever their final record in 2019 ends up being will reflect that as luck won't be so good this season. In three losses so far, the Wildcats have scored 7, 10 and 15 points. Yes, Nebraska got manhandled last Saturday night at home by Ohio State. But the Buckeyes are manhandling everybody right now. The Cornhuskers can score (31+ points in each of the first four games) and will score enough here to cover this spread with room to spare. Lay it! Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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10-05-19 | Texas v. West Virginia +11.5 | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WEST VIRGINIA West Virginia is an ugly 3-1, but their record is nevertheless 3-1. The fact that they've won ugly doesn't make them any less dangerous this week in Morgantown. Yes, they only beat James Madison by 7 despite being +3 in the turnover margin. They also needed some good fortune to win at Kansas last week. But let's not forget the only other time they've been a home dog. A highly touted NC State team came to Morgantown and got beat 44-27. Texas best be on high alert here or the same fate could be awaiting them Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns do have a perceived advantage in that they are coming off a bye week. Before the bye, they picked up a big win over Oklahoma State, 36-30 in Austin. But this is a team that often struggles to cover when its favored. Last year, they were 1-4 ATS as an away favorite. Two of those games - at Maryland and Oklahoma State - resulted in outright defeats. West Virginia is not a home dog all that often that and this will be the first season it's happened twice since 2014. Maybe that's a sign of the times in Morgantown, but don't make the mistake of laying this number when history suggests the game will be close. The Mountaineers have beaten the Longhorns three of the last four seasons, including 42-41 last year in Austin. Play on WEST VIRGINIA AAA |
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10-04-19 | New Mexico +7 v. San Jose State | Top | 21-32 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW MEXICO Truthfully, neither of these teams should have covered last week. San Jose State, getting 19.5 against Air Force, was still down 41-10 with just under four minutes to go in the game. They scored a touchdown to make it 41-17. What happened next is the kind of gift/horror that only those fully entrenched in the betting community can lay claim to experiencing. Air Force decided to go for it on 4th & 1 from their own 22! They failed to pick up the yard and San Jose State quickly responded with another TD (just 52 seconds remaining) to steal the cover. New Mexico did something similar in its game vs. Liberty, scoring a TD with just 43 seconds remaining. While they still lost 17-10, the Lobos happened to be getting 7.5 points. Who will be lucky enough to cover this week? For us, this comes down to the simple fact that San Jose State should never be bet as a favorite. The last time the Spartans were favored by more than a field goal against a FBS team was 2015! New Mexico might be bad, but they're not THAT bad. San Jose State is only 8-12 straight up its last 20 conference home games and has lost 24 of its last 29 games overall. New Mexico has covered four of the last five times it's been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the Lobos and the points here. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-04-19 | Twins v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Twins-Yankees These teams certainly aren't lacking in the run production department. They are the only two teams in baseball history to hit 300+ home runs in a single season. Not coincidentally, they finished 1-2 in overall runs scored this year. The last time they met was late July and not only did all three games go Over the total, all of them saw at minimum 14 runs scored. We know it's now the postseason, but this seems like a really low O/U line for these two clubs. Neither starter really impresses us as Jose Berrios (Twins) has a 4.85 ERA his past seven starts, having given up at least five runs in three of them. James Paxton (Yankees) seemingly got hot down the stretch as the Yankees have won all of his last 11 starts. But his last one saw him have to leave after one inning, so there's concern there. The Over is 8-2 in Paxton's last 10 starts, by the way. Yes, the Yankees have an incredible bullpen, but if the Twins lineup can get to Paxton, that won't be as big of a factor. We figure both teams are going to hit their fair share of home runs in this game and that means the Over is in play. Both sides are clearly capable of putting at least five runs on the board in Game 1. Play OVER Twins-Yankees AAA |
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10-04-19 | Rays v. Astros -215 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on HOUSTON With the best rotation in the game, it seems like everyone is picking the Astros to at least make it to the World Series. They definitely appear to have the decided edge for Game 1 of the LDS against Tampa Bay as Justin Verlander will be pitching with plenty of rest. Verlander is likely to finish in the top two of the Cy Young voting this year. His main competition will be teammate Gerrit Cole. Verlander has a 2.62 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 34 starts this year, 24 of those resulting in Houston wins. The opposing pitcher for Game 1, Tyler Glasnow, actually has a lower ERA (1.78) and comparable WHIP (0.89) but in roughly one-third the starts Verlander has made. He missed a bulk of the season due to injury and also averages far less innings per start than does Verlander. While Houston has been off since Sunday, Tampa Bay obviously had to win the Wild Card Game to get to this point. This week has seen them go from Toronto to Oakland to Houston in a five-day span, which is a tough stretch, especially seeing as they're now matched up with one of the top two teams in baseball. The Astros were 60-21 at home in the regular season. They are 30-14 in day games (104-48 L3 seasons). Go with the better team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-04-19 | Blackhawks v. Flyers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is the start to the season for both teams and the game is being played in the Czech Republic (Prague) For the Blackhawks, Prague is better than Philly where they've lost 17 of their last 19 trips. There is some enthusiasm for this Chicago club despite missing the playoffs each of the last two seasons. There was a lot of turnover in personnel, but the biggest issue that needs fixing is on the goals allowed side of the ledger where they were second worst in the entire league last year. They gave up a fair number in the preseason, but with Corey Crawford back between the pipes, we should see improvement in that category moving forward. The Flyers have missed the playoffs four straight years and underwent some serious offseason changes as well. Carter Hart, who was a rookie last season, is now firmly entrenched as the #1 goalie here. Hart posted a 2.83 goals against average and .917 save percentage in his rookie season. With him spending more time between the pipes, we should see a reduction in the number of goals allowed by the Flyers this season. The Under is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings between these teams and this is a high number for the first game. The Under is also 16-2-4 the Blackhawks last 22 games vs. the Metropolitan. Play UNDER Chicago-Philadelphia AAA |
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10-03-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers -163 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the DODGERS Two hot teams meet in this NLDS as the Dodgers have won nine straght and the Nationals have won seven straight. Washington got here thanks to a fielding gaffe by Milwaukee's right fielder in the bottom of the eighth Tuesday night. That one error allowed three runs to score and the Nats to prevail 4-3 in the Wild Card Game. Thankfully, we had the Brewers on the run line (+1.5). We'll look to fade Washington again tonight as it'll take a lot more than an error to get by the juggernaut that is the Dodgers. Consider this: LA is 59-22 at home this year. They are the clear favorites to win the NL pennant as they have by far the best pitching in the game today. They led the NL in ERA at home, on the road and overall. They also have best defensive efficiency of any team. They also scored more runs than every other National League team. Really, there isn't a single category where this team isn't the best. They don't even feel the need to go with Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 as it'll be Walker Buehler instead. That's fine by us as the Dodgers won 20 of Buehler's 30 starts in the regular season. He has a 2.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this year. His ERA in two starts vs. the Nationals was 2.92. Pat Corbin will be the Game 1 starter for Washington, not a bad option, but he's facing the superior lineup. Corbin's numbers noticeably rose on the road and that left him with an 8-9 team start record in those starts. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-03-19 | Rams +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES One bad loss to the Buccaneers and everyone seems to have 'jumped ship' when it comes to last year's Super Bowl runner-up. But the Rams still put up over 500 total yards of offense last week and were unbeaten entering the game. They had 36 first downs. Jared Goff hasn't looked great, but he'll be facing a Seattle defense that's largely gone untested in the first quarter of the season, thanks to facing a slew of subpar quarterbacks. The look ahead line for this game had the Rams favored, so there's definitely been a swing in perception. We will look to take advantage of that. The Seahawks are 0-2 ATS at home so far as they barely beat the Bengals and lost to the Brees-less Saints. Besides beating the winless Bengals, their other wins have been against the Steelers and Cardinals. Those three teams are a combined 1-10-1 with the only win occurring because the Steelers played the Bengals Monday night. Remember Seattle was the fortunate opponent of Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger got hurt. This will be the first time the Rams have been an underdog in a regular season game since 2017. They've won 16 of the last 19 road games. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +12 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SOUTH ALABAMA South Alabama is just trying to stay competitive, let alone win a game at this point. The Jaguars are 1-4 with all four losses being by double digits. The only team they beat (Jackson State) is a FCS school. But you can say the same exact thing about Thursday's opponent, Georgia Southern. The Eagles only win was against Maine and that was by just eight points. Otherwise, they are 0-3 against FBS competition. One of those losses was close. Minnesota beat them 35-32 three weeks ago, but in that game GSU gained less than 200 total yards of offense. They gained less than 100 yds of total offense in a 55-3 loss to LSU. Now those are big time schools they were facing. But at home last week, the Eagles lost 37-24 to Louisiana and that was after a bye. With these kind of paltry offensive numbers, Georgia Southern should not be laying this many points in a road game, even if it is against a team perceived to be as bad as South Alabama is right now. Our call is that the Jaguars figure it out enough to at the very least keep this one competitive. Back in the season opener, they were able to stay within 14 points of Nebraska, in Lincoln. Certainly then, they should be able to stay within double digits of a conference opponent, at home? Play SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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10-03-19 | Panthers v. Lightning -173 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay turned in arguably the most dominant regular season ever last year, outscoring opponents by 103 goals and finishing with 125 points. But none of that mattered come playoff time when they were shockingly ousted in the 1st round by Columbus. It's not just that they lost the series either. They got swept! So we expect the Lightning to strike fast here in 2019-2020 and that means two points tonight at the expense of their Floridian rivals, the Panthers. Florida did not make the playoffs last year and should be considered a fringe contender to do so this year. As you may have guessed, the Lightning have dominated this in-state "rivalry." They won all four games last year and have taken seven of the eight meetings over the past two seasons, including all of them at home. The Panthers weren't exactly a good road team either last year as their record was 16-26 away from home. This is a good early season price to take on the Lightning as lines are still soft. Our guess is that a month from now, they'd be -200 or so on the money line against the Panthers. The Lightning were 32-7-2 in regular season home games last year. They won't be losing tonight. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Division winners Atlanta and St. Louis meet in this National League Division Series. This will be their first time playing since May. There were two series between them that took place that month. The Braves took two of three in both. They've got the homefield advantage, which seems important given that virtually every Cardinals starter seems to perform substantially worse on the road. That's something we'll definitely be tracking in this series. Miles Mikolas is the Game 1 starter for St. Louis. He went just 4-8 in 17 road starts during the regular season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. So that you can compare, he has a 3.01 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. The one time Mikolas faced the Braves this year, it was at home. He allowed three runs and seven hits, so it's reasonable to expect him to give up more Thursday. Atlanta is going with Dallas Keuchel as its Game 1 starter. While Keuchel's last five starts have all stayed Under, he certainly hasn't pitched well in two of the previous three. In fact, the Braves have lost Keuchel's last three starts with him posting a 6.19 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. There are some questions about how well the St. Louis offense will perform in a postseason environment, but the Over is 7-1 their last 8 playoff games. They have also gone Over 41 of the last 65 times they've faced a left-handed starter. The Braves are one of the highest scoring teams in the National League. The Over is 6-1 the last seven times they've hosted St. Louis. Play OVER St. Louis-Atlanta AAA |
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10-02-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Two teams expected to compete for first place in the Pacific meet Wednesday night in Sin City as the Golden Knights host the Sharks. By the end of the regular season last year, both were caught looking up at the Flames in the standings. That set up a 1st round playoff matchup, which went to a Game 7 and saw the Sharks ultimately prevail. They haven't forgotten that series in Las Vegas as the Knights dropped both Games 6 & 7 in overtime with Game 6 going to 2 OT's. So even though this is just the first game of the season, there will be some major revenge on the mind. Interestingly, five of the seven games in that playoff series saw at least seven total goals scored. That's a lot of scoring, especially for playoff hockey. We don't think the skaters will be nearly as prolific to start the season. Vegas was among the league's best (3rd overall) in terms of giving up goals at home, allowing only 2.41 per game. Note that the two games in last year's playoff series that did not go Over both took place here. San Jose is a different team this year with Joe Pavelski gone. But their save percentage (.889 last year) can only go up. Play UNDER San Jose-Vegas AAA |
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10-02-19 | Capitals v. Blues -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on ST. LOUIS We like the Blues on Opening Night to win a battle of the last two Stanley Cup Champions. In case you forgot, it was St. Louis hoisting the Cup last June for the first time in franchise history, thus completing one of the most remarkable in-season turnarounds that we have ever seen - in any sport. Right after the New Year, the Blues had the fewest points in the league. They wound up winning it all. A big reason for that stunning turn of events was the play of rookie netminder Jordan Binnington. Now it's a full season of Binnington between the pipes in St. Louis. So we expect there to be little to no drop off for this team this year. For Washington, it very much feels like the 2019-20 season is going to be their last run at a Cup. Alex Ovechkin is under contract for the next two seasons, but both Nicklas Backstrom and goalie Braden Holtby are set to become free agents next summer. In this same position last year, the Capitals delivered a 7-0 win against the Bruins as it was them playing at home watching a banner getting raise. The proverbial skate is on the other foot this time. The Caps have failed to win the last six times they've been ML underdogs. St. Louis won 20 of its last 29 home games to end last season. They start this year with two points. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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10-02-19 | Rays v. A's -130 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OAKLAND This year's AL Wild Card Game features two franchises not exactly known for being deep in the pocketbooks, but the A's and Rays are both rich in pitching and most are going to expect a low-scoring game here. Oakland really surged in the second half as it won 97 games for the second consecutive season. They were just 37-36 on June 16th, but have gone 60-29 ever since. That's impressive. Starting this winner-take-all game for them will be Sean Manaea, an excellent choice in our opinion. Manaea is undefeated since returning from shoulder surgery, going 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA in five games. He has 30 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings while giving up only four runs and 16 hits. He's walked only seven batters, so you're looking at a 0.78 WHIP as well. Tampa Bay scored the fewest runs of any American League playoff team, so it's a good matchup here for the Athletics, who get the game at home as well. They were 52-29 at home in the regular season. Three teams had more home victories than the A's - the Dodgers, Houston and the Yankees. It's interesting that there were only five games in which TB was a road dog of +125 to +175. They had a losing record in those games. Charlie Morton starts here for the Rays and he's actually been one of the more consistent starters in the AL. But his WHIP is noticeably higher on the road. The bullpens are going to play a role here, but we just don't know where the runs are going to come from for the Rays. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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10-01-19 | Brewers +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE +1.5 (RUN LINE) The Brewers season appeared to be over when MVP candidate Christian Yelich fouled a ball off his knee. But instead of folding, the team surged in Yelich's absence, going 22-10 the final 32 games and earning this Wild Card berth (almost won the division). It's not always pretty with Milwaukee, but they do have one massive edge over Washington and that's the bullpen. The Nationals not only possess the worst bullpen of the 10 playoff teams this year, in terms of ERA they have one of the five worst pens in the last 21 seasons! It should be noted that the other four teams in the bottom five averaged 99 losses in their respective seasons. Milwaukee, on the other hand, won because of their bullpen not in spite of it. In September, the Brewers turned in a 3.01 ERA, right at the top of all of baseball. As the decided favorite Tuesday, Washington is under a lot of pressure and this is a franchise that has often come up small in the postseason. If the Brewers can get an early lead, they can turn to the bullpen, which has been so dominant, to stay ahead. History suggests that starter Brandon Woodruff won't go long here. But if he can help get his team an early lead, they're golden. It's not like Woodruff isn't the right option to start here either. The team won 18 of the 22 games he started this year! The Nationals are going with Max Scherzer and while that seemingly gives them an edge, they were basically a coinflip proposition with him on the mound this year, going 14-13 in his 27 starts. They were 6-9 in his 15 home starts. Scherzer also struggled a bit down the stretch with a 6.11 ERA his last three starts. We can easily see Milwaukee winning this game, or if they lose it'll be by just one run. Take the run line and if the Brewers do win, don't be surprised if it's because of the bullpen. Play MILWAUKEE on the RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -118 | 33 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Neither team playing Monday night has done much of the way in scoring in 2019 and neither has done any kind of winning. The Bengals and Steelers both come in at 0-3 with the former averaging only 18.0 points/game while the latter is at just 16.3. The Steelers have the obvious excuse of not having Ben Roethlisberger, but they still put up 20 last week in a loss to San Francisco with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While the Roethlisberger injury definitely altered our outlook on the Steelers season, more concerning in the interim is how poorly the defense has played. They've given up 28.3 points/game so far and could have given up a lot more than 24 last week were it not for the 49ers turning the ball over so much. Three of San Francisco's five turnovers came inside the red zone. So it definitely could have - and should have - been a lot worse for Pittsburgh last week. They allowed 446 total yards to the Niners. On the year, the Steelers are allowing 443 yards/game. The Bengals defense knows what it's like to be shredded by the 49ers as well. They gave up 572 total yards to them in 41-17 loss back in Week 2. On the bright side, Andy Dalton is actually averaging over 300 yards passing per game. The Over is 5-2 the Steelers last seven games on Monday Night Football and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 division games. While the offenses have been struggling, this one could easily turn into a shootout with two struggling defenses that can't stop anybody. Play OVER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh AAA |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47 | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER The competition has not been fierce, but the Cowboys have looked good so far. They are 3-0 and averaging 32.3 points per game. Kellen Moore is doing a very good job as the new offensive coordinator, QB Dak Prescott is playing as well as anyone in the league right now and RB Ezekiel Elliot hasn't skipped a beat. New Orleans will be the Cowboys toughest opponent yet, but of course the Saints are without Drew Brees. These teams played a Thursday night game last season and the Cowboys won 13-10. Expect this tussle to feature a lot more scoring. It took touchdowns from both the defense and special teams to get New Orleans to 33 points last week as they pulled the upset in Seattle. But now they are playing in the Superdome. We expect Teddy Bridgewater to play well here. The Over is 8-3 in the Saints last 11 September games. It's also cashed in the last five conference games for Dallas. The Saints defense, which isn't as good as it was last year, did just give up over 500 yards to Seattle. The only offenses Dallas has faced are the Giants (with Eli Manning), the Redskins and the Dolphins. So it wouldn't be fair to call them "good" just yet. The Saints always put up points at home. This time Dallas should be able to match them. Play OVER Dallas-New Orleans AAA |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks -5 v. Cardinals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SEATTLE The Seahawks starting 2-0 was a little surprising, but probably less so compared to last week's home loss. Seattle had to like its chances going into last week as they were facing a Saints team without Drew Brees. Unfortunately, the joke was on them as they lost 33-27 despite almost a 2 to 1 edge in total yards (515 to 265). The problem was allowing the Saints to score two non-offensive touchdowns, one on a punt return and the other a fumble return. We like the Seahawks to bounce back from that defeat as they play Arizona this week. The Cardinals haven't won, but they did tie, with the primary problem being they always fall behind in games. Last week they lost 38-20 at home to a Carolina team that didn't have Cam Newton. Kyler Murray is running for his life as he's been sacked more times (16) than all but one other quarterback. He hasn't faced a ton of blitzes but is dropping back to pass at a very high rate with 137 attempts in three games. On defense, Arizona is missing both of its starting corners. Tough to really like anything about the Cardinals right now. Seattle is 5-0-1 in its past six trips to the desert. They should win this one handily after putting up so many yards last week. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER We like the Seattle-Arizona game to go Under too. Sure, we talked a good bit about the Seahawks putting up a lot of yards last week and the Cardinals defense being down both of its starting corners. But Seattle can't score enough to send this one over by itself. Their defense played better against the Saints than the final score indicated. We went through this in the analysis on the side. But New Orleans scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Arizona did give up 4 TD passes to Kyle Allen last week, but should play better this week. The offense hasn't scored more than 24 in regulation this year and their total points would look a lot worse if not for the 4th quarter comeback they had vs. the Lions. The Under is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home games. It is also 11-5 the last 16 times Seattle gave up 30 or more points in its last game. Play UNDER Seattle-Arizona AAA |
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09-29-19 | Reds -115 v. Pirates | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI The Reds may not have improved to the level they desired for 2019, but this is a team on the rise. Expect them to be a trendy “sleeper” for 2020. The pitching staff is good as only three teams in the National League have allowed less runs. They probably do need to add a “bat” in the offseason as they scored the 4th fewest runs among NL clubs and were last in the division in that regard. But they did win 4-2 on Saturday, beating a Pirates team whose future outlook is nowhere near as bright. Pittsburgh fell to last in the Central this year and probably will be there again at this time next year. Nothing is on the line Sunday at PNC Park (except pride) and although yesterday was their first win in nine tries here this season, we expect Cincinnati to be the ones to close out the season with a win. Does starter Tyler Mahle have the most inspiring numbers? Hardly. But, even though Trevor Bauer was originally going to start this game, there is a reason that the Reds are still favored today. It’s a simple one. They are the better TEAM. Trevor Williams, who starts for Pittsburgh today, can’t be trusted. He has a 5.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season and those numbers have been even worse the last seven starts. Williams has allowed 4 HRs in his last two starts as well. Reds end the year on a high note. AAA |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants -3 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK With the New York media tripping all over itself in an effort to fawn over rookie Daniel Jones, one might think this could be an ideal spot to fade the public sentiment and go against the Giants. Especially now, since RB Saquon Barkley is going to miss several games. With Barkley relegated to a spectator on the bench, Jones (in his 1st career start) led the Giants to an improbable come from behind 32-31 victory over the Buccaneers last week. But if there's a team (besides Miami) that the Giants deserve to be favored over in this spot, it's Washington. The Redskins are on a short week after a diastrous effort Monday night left them at 0-3. At home, they trailed the Bears 28-3 at the half and eventually lost 31-15. Washington is a complete mess right now. QB Keenum sprained his foot in the loss Monday night. He's expected to play, but backup Colt McCoy is hurt too. That could leave the Redskins own rookie, Dwayne Haskins, as the only option. But according to most, he's not ready to be a NFL starter yet. The same could be said for most players on the Redskins defense right now. They've given up at least 31 points in every game. So Jones should have another big game. Washington has won just 3 of its last 14 NFC East games. They are just 3-8 their last 11 visits to the Giants, getting outscored by 65 points in those games. They are a mess while the G-Men finally have some momentum. Not only should the Giants be favored, they'll cover. Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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09-29-19 | Patriots -6.5 v. Bills | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -115 | 37 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW ENGLAND The Patriots and Bills are both 3-0, but don't expect this early season showdown to necessarily be a playoff preview. Buffalo has beaten the Jets, Giants and Bengals so far. You definitely won't be seeing any of those teams in the postseason. Then again, the same could be said for New England's first three opponents, which includes Miami. Last week saw the Patriots play the Jets and while the final score was 30-14, it easily could have been 30-0. The New England defense has still not allowed a touchdown this year as the Jets two scores came from special teams and defense. Through three games, the Patriots have outscored teams by 89 points. The Bills have outscored opponents by just 19 points. That's why New England remains such a sizable road favorite in this spot. That and the fact they have dominated this AFC East rivalry, winning 42 of the 58 meetings since Tom Brady came onto the scene in 2001. They've also taken the last five meetings, winning all of them by at least 12 points. Josh Allen is just starting his second year as the Bills QB. He makes a lot of errors. New England has won 17 straight times when facing a first or second year starting QB. Prior to last week's win over Cincinnati, the Bills had been 0-4 SU and ATS when off two straight wins. They didn't cover against the Bengals, a winless team mind you, and almost lost the game. Again, the Patriots have allowed 17 points in three games. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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09-28-19 | Washington State v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 100 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH Both Washington State and Utah suffered crushing defeats last week. Utah's came first and was not all that out of the ordinary. It's the kind of upset we see at least once a week. While having a 27-16 edge in first downs over your opponent and still losing is disappointing, there's no shame in losing to USC at the Coliseum. In fact, it's been over 100 years since Utah last won there. One thing is for certain and that's it won't be another 100 years until they finally win at the Coliseum. What happened to Washington State late Saturday though was something you'll rarely, if ever, see again. Despite 63 points, 750 yards of total offense and NINE touchdown passes from QB Gordon, the Cougars LOST to UCLA - at home. They blew a 32-point lead in the second half in what was the third largest comeback (in terms of point margin) in NCAA history. Washington State was the first team to allow 50 points in a second half in 15 seasons. Only one team can bounce back from these two horrible defeats. We think it will be Utah and that they'll cover the spread to boot. The Utes have lost four in a row to Wazzu - by an average of 6 points/game. But this year's team is better irregardless of what we saw last Friday night in LA. And they are still the better team here even if RB Moss can't suit up. Washington State was a pointspread juggernaut last season, but has now failed to cover three straight games. Playing on the road after allowing 50 points in 19 minutes is hardly ideal. Lay it! Play on UTAH AAA |
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09-28-19 | NC State v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE It took four tries, but Florida State finally looked impressive for an entire game in 2019. They jumped on Louisville last week, racing out to a 21-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. They held on to win 35-24 and cover as a 6.5-point favorites. Of course, starting well hasn't actually been an issue this year for the Seminoles. They led Boise State 31-13 (lost 36-31), UL Monroe 21-0 (won 45-44) and Virginia 24-17 (lost 31-24). They easily could be 4-0 and the narrative surrounding the program and coach Taggart would certainly be a whole lot different, wouldn't it? We're going to call for the turnaround to continue this week, facing North Carolina State, who is a suspect 3-1 team. They've beaten East Carolina, Western Carolina and Ball State. But the only time they've ventured off campus, they were beaten 44-27 by West Virginia, a game they were actually expected to win by seven. The Wolfpack are only 1-5 ATS their last six road games and 1-7 ATS following a straight up win. The home team has won this game 9 of the past 13 times. Florida State has big-time revenge after losing 47-28 in Raleigh. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State +5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on KANSAS STATE Under normal circumstances, this would set up as a very even affair between two teams looking to move up the Big 12 pecking order. But the circumstances are not normal this week in Stillwater as Oklahoma State is off a tough loss (to Texas) and visiting Kansas State is off a bye. The latter certainly seems to be underrated right now. Kansas State has already beaten Mississippi State on the road and is 3-0 ATS. Oklahoma State not only lost in Austin last week, they also struggled (for a half) in Tulsa the week before. The underdog brings the better defense, giving up 12.7 points/game to OSU's 26.8. Also, the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points while the Cowboys are 2-7 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 with five outright losses. Kansas State is also 11-4 ATS as a single digit road underdog since 2016. Though the home team has won 13 of the previous 16 meetings, Kansas State has won the last two - as a 20-point underdog and as an eight-point underdog. It may say something that the unranked team (Oklahoma State) is favored here, but they are at home. Or it may mean the oddsmakers simply haven't caught onto the fact that Kansas State is a lot better than expected for first year coach Chris Kleiman, who built an empire at the FCS level with North Dakota State and is translating well (so far) to the FBS level. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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09-28-19 | Marlins v. Phillies -161 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA It took awhile, but the Phillies snapped their six-game losing streak last night by beating the Marlins 5-4 in 15 innings. That result is something we'd called for as Philadelphia came into Friday below .500 for the first time all season. We made the case that Miami is an ideal opponent for them to wrap the year up against and that mindset hasn't changed in the last 24 hours. The Marlins are the NL's worst team in just about every department as they are 56-104 and have been outscored by 188 runs. The Phillies at least have the motivation of trying to finish above .500 for the year, which they can do by winning the final two games. After a 15-inning loss, Miami is hardly likely to come back with a strong effort on the road. Starter Caleb Smith pitched well in two previous starts vs. the Phillies this year, but both were all the way back in April. Recently, Smith has struggled with a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP his last seven starts. He's also struggled most of the year on the road. So have the Marlins as a team as their record away from home is now 26-53 including 9-24 as an underdog of +125 to +175. The Phillies Zach Eflin should have a solid start tonight. Prior to getting beat up by Washington on Monday, Eflin hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in six straight starts. The Phillies are 24-14 this season as home favorites of -125 to -175 and 48-28 in that role since 2017. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Virginia-Notre Dame After suffering a tough loss to Georgia last Saturday night, Notre Dame should resume scoring in bunches against a Virginia team that comes in ranked a highly questionable 18th overall. The Fighting Irish scored 101 points in their first two games including 66 in the only one played so far in South Bend. They were held to 17 by Georgia, but that's an elite defense they were facing there. Virginia certainly doesn't have a bad defense as they've yet to allow more than 24 points in a 4-0 start. But this number is too low based on what we see for most Notre Dame games. Even against Georgia, the total was 58. Virginia has scored at least 28 points in every game, so it may take a big number from Notre Dame to win this one comfortably, let alone win it at all. The Over is 7-3 in Virginia's last 10 non-conference games. Last week's vs. Old Dominion featured a slow start, but once the Cavaliers offense got going, it wasn't going to be denied. The Over is also 6-1 the last seven times Virginia has played on the road against a team with a winning home record. Notre Dame isn't about to score 66 again this week, like they did two weeks ago vs. New Mexico. But they should score plenty as they look to bounce back from the loss to Georgia. Virginia won't go quietly though. Play OVER Virginia-Notre Dame AAA |
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09-28-19 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -1 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 90 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI (OH) Miami of Ohio did not fare well in the non-conference portion of the schedule, winning just one of four games and that one victory came against a FCS opponent. But the three losses were to: Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State, all games where they were an underdog of at least 17 points. So really, we can't say we're all that surprised to see the RedHawks coming into Saturday with a 1-3 record. But what we are surprised about is that Buffalo beat Temple last week, 38-22, as a two-touchdown underdog. Over was our call in that game, but we certainly didn't expect the Bulls to win it on field. Then again, the week before they lost at Liberty as a 5.5-point favorite. Because most of the country saw Miami lose 76-5 to Ohio State last week, there certainly won't be a rush to bet the RedHawks this week. But we love the spot. Over its last 22 MAC games, Miami is actually 16-6 straight up AND against the spread. Buffalo has not played nearly the kind of schedule that Miami has and averaged just 15 points in two road games. Miami has gotten to play just once at home and scored 48 on Tennessee Tech. Buffalo had only 279 total yards of offense last week, but Temple turned it over four times, so that's how the Bulls won that one. One touchdown came from the defense and two more came on drives that started in the red zone. Miami will take better care of the football and win this one. Play MIAMI OH AAA |
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09-27-19 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HAMILTON We still have several weeks left in the CFL regular season, but three teams have already clinched playoff spots and these are two of them. Winnipeg is tied with Calgary a top the Western Division with matching 9-4 records. Hamilton is 10-3 and is running away from the rest of the East. The last time these division leaders met was Week 7. The Blue Bombers entered that game undefeated (5-0), but the Ti-Cats dealt them their first defeat, 23-15 as a 1-pt home dog. Hamilton won that game despite losing QB Jeremiah Masoli in the first quarter. Simple math reveals that Winnipeg has gone just 4-4 its last eight games, but three of the losses have come by a total of four points. The Ti-Cats are the only team to beat them by more than a two-point margin all year. One of those Winnipeg losses came last week, 38-37 at Montreal, as they blew a 24-point lead. Interestingly, Hamilton's three losses this year have been by a total of 13 points. So we have every reason to expect a close one here, which makes taking the points logical. Both teams have had to turn to backup quarterbacks this year with the starters injured, so it's impressive that they are still leading their respective divisions. But Dane Evans (Hamilton) seems to have played better than Chris Streveler (Winnipeg). Streveler is a much different type QB than Matt Nichols. The Bombers are undefeated at home, but the Ti-Cats have the best inter-division record in the league. Gotta take the points in this one. Play on HAMILTON AAA |
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09-27-19 | Penn State v. Maryland UNDER 60.5 | Top | 59-0 | Win | 100 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER After two games, the Maryland hype train was in full effect. They'd put up 142 points in a pair of wins, one of them 63-20 over Syracuse. But that hype train then got stuck in the station in a 20-17 road loss to Temple two weeks ago. We'll now get to see how Mike Locksley gets his team to perform off a loss. The Terrapins will face a Penn State squad that had its own impressive first two weeks on offense before playing a game vs. Pitt that they easily could have lost. They only beat the Panthers 17-10 and that came on the heels of a lackluster first half the week prior against Buffalo. The Nittany Lions have destroyed the Terps each of the last two years, outscoring them 104 to 6. No you didn't read that incorrectly. We think the last game for each team showed that neither offense is invincible here. We're not going to be seeing the video game-like numbers from the first two weeks. Both defenses might be underrated as Penn State has given up only 30 total points in three games while Maryland has given up just 40. The Terps last four Friday games have all stayed Under. Play UNDER Penn State-Maryland AAA |
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09-27-19 | Marlins v. Phillies -161 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA Philadelphia wraps up a very disappointing season this weekend at home. This was supposed to be a playoff year after they went out and signed Bryce Harper. But instead, they'll finish with a very similar record to 2018. In fact, they are actually now a game below .500 (79-80), thanks to a six-game losing streak which is their second longest all season. But at least they get to face Miami to end the year. The Marlins are one of four 100+ loss teams in baseball and the only one in the National League. They have been out of contention from the start and no one has disputed that it's they who have been the NL's worst all year long. Vince Velasquez goes tonight for Philly. His team start record is 12-10. That included four wins in a row prior to him losing in Cleveland on Sunday. We actually went against him in that start, noting how he might "cool off." But three of the four runs he allowed in that game were unearned. Pablo Lopez has a 7-13 TSR for the Marlins with five of those losses coming in his last six outings. The only exception was his last start. But that was at home. On the road, you're looking at a 2-7 TSR and a 7.27 ERA. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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09-27-19 | Reds v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Two NL Central teams conclude their seasons in PNC Park this weekend as the Pirates host the Reds. While these are the final games for both sides, they probably feel very different about their respective 2019 seasons. The Reds appear to be a team on the rise, with some strong pitching, as they're going to NOT lose 90+ games for the 1st time since 2014. That said, they've lost the last four games. Pittsburgh has fallen hard this year as they've lost 91 games and will finish last in the division. Their future outlook seems a lot more bleak, though they did just shockingly sweep the Cubs here at home in their last series. The Pirates often do allow a lot of runs, but Cincinnati comes in having scored just 30 in its last 12 contests. For the season, the Reds are bottom six in baseball in runs scored. But they are top eight in runs allowed. Something will have to give with the top Over team (Pittsburgh) facing the top Under team (Cincinnati). Reds starter DeSclafani has a 1.89 ERA and 0.58 WHIP his previous three starts, so that's fairly "on brand." We'll hope that Pirates starter Brault can improve upon his recent efforts thanks to facing a team he held scoreless back in May. Brault does tend to pitch better at home. Play UNDER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh AAA |
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09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -118 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on VA TECH While you may not yet be sold on Virginia Tech this year, don't be surprised if Friday in Blacksburg proves to be the Hokies "coming out party." They turned it over five times in their only loss, which was on the road. But they have won 15 of the last 21 games at Lane Stadium. With 10 starters back from last year, the defense should be solid in Bud Foster's final season as coordinator. This team won 19 games in Justin Fuente's first two years. They dropped to six wins in 2018, but that included one over a Duke team that had a future NFL starting quarterback in Daniel Jones. The game was in Durham and not close as VT won 31-14 as a three-point dog. The Blue Devils aren't as good this year despite easily defeating their last two opponents. (They lost 42-3 to Alabama in the opener). Virginia Tech has won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall including three straight. The last two wins have been by a combined 38 points. The Hokies have covered their last five Friday night games. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA The Eagles are 1-2, not to mention a banged up football team right now. Down both starting receivers last week, they lost at home to the Lions 27-24. But as you can see from that score, offense wasn't really the problem. Even with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery out, the Eagles had more first downs than the Lions did and outgained them on the day. The problems were special teams and turnovers. Detroit returned a kickoff for a TD early in the game and would not have won without it. Philly also fumbled twice and both times it led to a Lions field goal. Then there was the Eagles failure to take advantage of a Lions special teams miscue. Late in the game, they blocked a Matt Prater field goal attempt. Despite starting at midfield, Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense could not move the ball into scoring position, instead turning it over on downs. Jeffery is expected back this week as is TE Dallas Goebert, who was limited to just nine snaps against the Lions. Green Bay is a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread, but a little lucky to be in this position considering they have been outgained in every game. Key for them is being +6 in turnovers as the defense has been much better than expected. But we don't see the Pack covering for a third straight time as home favorites. As an underdog, the Eagles are 9-4 ATS the last two seasons with eight outright victories. We'll take the points. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS Memphis quickly established itself as the potential "Group of 5" team to get a New Year's Day Bowl slot when they beat Ole Miss in Week 1. The Tigers are now 3-0 and surprisingly it's been the defensive side of the ball that's been more impressive. Sure, the offense scored a combined 97 points against Southern and South Alabama the last two games. But the defense has given up only 40 points all year, thereby reducing the total PPG scored in Memphis' games to just under 51, which is down from 75 a year ago. This Thursday they welcome in Navy for a key AAC West showdown. Navy has played only two games, both against lesser competition (Holy Cross, East Carolina). As you would expect, the Midshipmen didn't struggle to win either game. They beat Holy Cross by 38 and ECU by 32. After a down year last season (finished 3-10 SU!), Navy is back to running the ball effectively as they're averaging 371 yards/game on the ground. But we look for them to get slowed down here by this vastly improved Memphis defense. This group held Ole Miss, an SEC team, to 10 points and 173 yards. The most yards gained by any Memphis opponent so far is 258 and that was, surprisingly, Southern. But even there, the Tigers defense performed better than you think. Southern gained 58 yards on its first two snaps, than only 200 the rest of the game on 3.6 yards per play. Southern also scored a defensive TD in that game. While conference play will ultimately determine if this Memphis' D is the "real deal" or not, we think it is and the Tigers closed last year by covering six of their last seven games against American opposition. They are simply the much better team here. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants -122 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the GIANTS This has been a tightly contested series thus far. Colorado won Tuesday's game 8-5, but not before the teams combined to use a MLB-record 25 different pitchers in a 16-inning affair. Then last night, the Giants gained a measure of revenge by winning in walkoff fashion, 2-1. For Colorado, a team with nothing to play for, it'll be tough to come back with today's game taking place in the afternoon. It's not like the Rockies are a good road team either. They're actually quite horrible as last night's loss dropped them to 28-52 away from Coors Field. Kyle Freeland gets the start for them here and he hasn't been effective all year. He's 3-11 in 21 starts with a 6.84 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He'd missed about a month before returning last Friday and pitching just two innings against the Dodgers. While the team has won two of his three starts against San Francisco this year, we can't say that Freeland has been all that effective in them. It's pretty crazy to think that Colorado made the playoffs last year. They very well could end up having the biggest drop in wins (of any team) this year. The Giants are also out of it, but they're playing for manager Bruce Bochy this week as he's set to retire. Thursday starter Tyler Beede has had a pretty good September with a 3.80 ERA in four starts. It was looking even better before he ran into a good Atlanta team last weekend. But the Rockies don't hit like the Braves. Not on the road at least. They are 28th in runs scored on the road, ahead of only Detroit and Miami. They are also last in team batting average (.230) and 29th (next to last) in OPS at .679. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-25-19 | A's -204 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on OAKLAND So it now looks like the A's will be going with Frankie Montas as the starter tonight. Originally, it was going to be Michael Fiers. Montas returns under the most auspicious of circumstances as he's coming off an 80-game suspension for violating MLB's drug policy. Perhaps the drugs were doing their job because Montas was 9-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.12 WHIP before getting caught. You hope the results don't go away as a result. Montas has faced the Angels three times this year and is 2-0. This is a really critical spot for him to step into as the A's lost last night, reducing their lead for the Wild Card to a half game over Tampa and one game over Cleveland. (Only two of those three teams make it). Fortunately, it may not matter how Montas performs tonight. Because if Andrew Heaney continues pitching the way he has of late for the Angels, Montas will have plenty of cushion. Heaney has given up six runs in back to back starts while allowing a total of five home runs. He's had some good stretches this year, but the only start against Oakland saw him give up five runs. Note that the A's have dropped two straight games now. The last time they lost three in a row was July. They rebound tonight. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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09-25-19 | Red Sox -139 v. Rangers | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON Anytime the Red Sox don't make the playoffs, the season is ultimately failure in Boston. So chalk up 2019 in the failure category as last year's World Series champs won't even be going back to the postseason this year. But most teams in the league would still love to be as good as Boston is. The Red Sox will likely still end up winning 85 games this year and they have a +75 run differential. That's a lot better than Texas, who is heading towards its third straight losing season. The Red Sox beat the Rangers yesterday, 12-10, in the opener of what is their final series on the road. Winning on the road hasn't been the problem for Boston this year. They are actually 45-34 in all road games. It's a losing record at Fenway Park that ultimately hurt them the most. The fact Boston won yesterday despite a rare bad start from Eduardo Rodriguez is good news. The Red Sox scored all 12 of their runs in the first five innings. They only homered once. This park in Arlington can be kind to hitters and the man starting for Texas tonight, Kolby Allard, knows that all too well as he sports a 7.36 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in three home starts. Rick Porcello is having a bad year for the Red Sox, but the veteran should be able to outpitch the rookie Allard here. Boston has won five of Porcello's last six starts on the road and they've also won the last five times he's gone against the Rangers. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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09-25-19 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Could this end up being a FIVE-game sweep for the Nationals? (Series wraps up tomorrow) That's looking like more and more of a reality after sweeping yesterday's doubleheader with the Phillies. That result officiall put Washington into the playoffs while simultaneously eliminating Philadelphia. That's a huge motivational edge here as the Nationals try and lock down home field advantage for the NL Wild Card Game against whichever team (St. Louis or Milwaukee) doesn't win the Central Division. They currently have a one game edge over Milwaukee in that department entering Wednesday when they look to make it four straight over Philly. They've outscored the Phillies 17-8 in the three games so far and what makes this series result all the more sweeter is that it's come against former teammate Bryce Harper. Anibal Sanchez will get the call for tonight's game. While he's pitched well recently, Sanchez has struggled against the Phillies this year. He's faced them four times and is winless with a 4.22 ERA. The Over is 6-2 in Sanchez's last eight starts overall. Drew Smyly will start here for the Phillies, who are now lame ducks for the final six games. We don't see any reason why Smyly, who has a 5.89 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for two teams this season (Phillies & Pirates), would come up big in this situation. The Nationals already average 5.5 runs per game at home. Play on OVER Philadelphia-Washington AAA |
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09-24-19 | Rockies v. Giants -169 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -169 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the GIANTS The Rockies and Giants are both playing out the string. But at least the Giants have some reason to celebrate as they honor departing manager Bruce Bochy, the longest active tenured skipper in the sport. They've also got Madison Bumgarner on the mound and that's a sizable advantage on the field. It may not have been Bumgarner's best year and his recent results certainly haven't been up to par. But it's still been a decent year overall. Bumgarner has been especially good here at home where he is 6-2 and has a 2.72 ERA/0.92 WHIP. He's made 18 starts total here and the Giants have won 12 of them. The Rockies are not a good road team. Their record away from home is 27-51 and they score a lot less than at Coors Field. The drop is more than two full runs per game. It doesn't help having Jeff Hoffman and his 6.71 ERA/1.62 WHIP on the mound either. It's somewhat shocking how sharp the decline has been for the Rockies this year. It's a 24 win drop, these last six games nothwithstanding. If you're San Francisco, what's not to like about Bumgarner going against this team? Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-24-19 | Twins v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Minnesota is very likely to win the AL Central and go into the playoffs as the "3-seed" (would face either Yankees or Astros in LDS). Detroit has been nowhere near a playoff discussion this season and will soon be done playing games. They are 49.5 games behind the Twins. They have scored 339 fewer runs. No team in baseball has scored fewer runs. That leads us to playing the Under in this divisional matchup. The Tigers have averaged only 2.6 runs/game over the past week and gone five in a row without scoring more than three. That was before Sunday's 6-3 win over the White Sox. If they do have a chance of winning Tuesday, it'll be due to starter Spencer Turnbull. He has been one of the few reliable options in this rotation. Turnbull allowed only one run in his last start - with eight strikeouts and no walks - which ended up being a 2-1 loss in Cleveland. Unfortunately, Turnbull and the Tigers will face Jake Odorizzi. In 11 career starts vs. Detroit, Odorizzi is 5-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The Under is 12-3-1 in Odorizzi's past 16 starts overall including the last five on the road. The Under is also 5-1 in the Twins last six series openers. The Under is 6-1-1 the Tigers last eight games overall. Play UNDER Minnesota-Detroit AAA |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON The Redskins will look to reverse the franchise's "curse" on Monday Night Football. Of all the things that have plagued this franchise in recent years, an 0-6 SU/ATS mark in the NFL's marquee primetime game is definitely one of them. This year, the team comes into its MNF appearance at 0-2 with a couple of division losses to Philadelphia and Dallas and in desperate need of a spark. Getting points against a Chicago team that struggles to score may be just what they need. The Bears are lucky not to be 0-2 themselves as they got a last second 50+ yard field goal to beat Denver 16-14 last week. That was after losing the season opener 10-3 to the rival Packers. After going 12-5 ATS last season (including playoff loss), the Bears are 0-2 ATS to start 2019. They were favored in both games. A second straight game as a road favorite seems dicey for a team with a struggling quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky has been very bad so far this year, ranking 32nd in both yards per pass attempt and passer rating. He's completing only 58.3% of his passes. As we saw in multiple games yesterday, 0-2 teams often show up in these situations and are good bets when taking points. Not sure if it means anything, but the Redskins have beaten the Bears seven straight times dating back to the 2003 season. They are 13-2 SU head to head since 1989. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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09-23-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -166 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TORONTO We have a record-tying four 100+ loss teams in MLB this year, three of them hailing from the American League. The least surprising member of the quartet would have to be Baltimore, who we won't hesitate to buck here. The Orioles lost 115 games a season ago, so their 51 wins this year actually represent improvement from 2018. Yet there is no denying this remains one of the worst teams in baseball. Toronto has lost 93 games this year, but is actually significantly better than all the 100+ loss teams as well as some of the 90+ loss ones as well. At least if you go by run differential as the Blue Jays have only been outscored by 101 runs this year. That may sound like a lot, but there are actually eight teams across baseball with worse run differentials. Baltimore has been outscored by 264 runs, easily the second worst overall and only ahead of Detroit. For today's series opener, the Blue Jays start Clay Buchholz, who knows the Orioles quite well from spending all that time in Boston. Buchholz actually struggled agianst the O's last week, but the Jays won the game 11-10 and swept the series. Baltimore made an overnight pitching change here going from Dylan Bundy to Chandler Shepard, which is a downgrade based on Shepard's lone appearance, last week vs. the Blue Jays in which he gave up three runs in four innings. The Orioles did win on Sunday, but haven't won two straight since August. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +4 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND Doesn't seem like there's many takers on the Browns this week, but they look like the right side to us Sunday night. Take away one bad quarter against the Titans and this defense has played really well so far. While it's certainly a big step up facing Jared Goff and the Rams, they'll have a fired up crowd rooting them on as this is the first Sunday night game in Cleveland in 11 years. The Rams had a close win (3 points) over Carolina in Week 1, then knocked Drew Brees out last week, turning a game with the Saints into an noncompetitive affair. Believe it or not, the Browns offense is actually averaging more yards per play (6.3) than the Rams are (5.7) through two games. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS as a home dog since last year began. After being such a popular team with the public to start the year, the Browns don't seem to have much support this week. But we think that's the perfect time to take them as we can smell a potential upset in this one. Grab the points. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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09-22-19 | Phillies v. Indians -124 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND It's going to be a busy night in Cleveland with both the Browns and Indians hosting big games. With all due respect to the Browns, who are hosting their 1st Sunday night game in 11 years, the Indians' game is much more important to the immediate future of the city. That's because with just seven games to go in the regular season, the Tribe finds itself one game out of the Wild Card. They lost yesterday (9-4 to the Phillies) while the Rays once again beat the Red Sox in extra innings. With only two series remaining after tonight, Cleveland simply cannot afford to fall two games back. They know the Rays next series is against the Yankees, so there's potential to make up some ground there. But first, it's time to handle their own business, which means beating a Phillies team that is basically out of contention at this point. The good news is Cleveland has gone 40-23 this year off a loss. More good news: their starter Adam Plutko has a 3-0 team start record his last three starts as he's allowed just two runs in each. Plutko also has a 0.91 WHIP at home. The team is 6-2 when he starts at Progressive Field. Phillies starter Velasquez may also have a 3-0 TSR in his last three starts, but a big difference is a 1.86 WHIP in them. So the Phillies have been awfully lucky to win those games. The fact that this is Cleveland's home finale adds to the motivation. The Phillies have a losing road record on the year and we can't see them winning two straight here. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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09-22-19 | Giants v. Bucs -6.5 | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -109 | 122 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY Obviously, the big story here is the Giants moving on from Eli Manning and going with rookie Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback. Does it even matter though? The Giants are a bad team that has beaten by double digits in both games. Also, have we forgotten just how divisive of a draft choice Jones was? Many respected minds thought he was a HUGE reach at #6 overall. Two good preseason performances aren't enough to sway us. Something else not helping the Giants case here is that Tampa Bay is on extra rest. The Buccaneers picked up their first win of the season last Thursday by going to Carolina and upsetting the Panthers. Unlike the Giants, the Bucs defense seems a lot better this year. Credit goes to new coordinator Todd Bowles. Tampa is allowing 1.5 yards less per play compared to last year. They've also given up only 31 points in two games. The Giants have scored just 31 points in two games. New York has also lost 13 of 17 road games and is just 1-8 SU in the month of September (2-7 ATS). This is the 6th time in 7 seasons they've started 0-2. Jones alone isn't enough to save this Giants team, if he is even capable of saving anything. One could argue that the Giants may not even be salvageable. Lay the points. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KANSAS CITY We used both of these teams in Week 1. The Ravens crushed the Dolphins 59-10. The Chiefs had no problem beating the Jaguars 40-26. Both are now 2-0. This will be hyped as an early season showdown in the AFC with the winner probably deemed as the conference's top challenger to the Patriots. But there is a reason to still be a little skeptical of Baltimore. They have played two poor teams to get to 2-0. Obviously, Miami is the worst team in the league. Arizona, who they barely beat last week, isn't far ahead and has a rookie QB. Had the Cardinals not settled for three field goals inside the Ravens' five-yard line last week, they easily could have pulled the upset. The Chiefs two victims, Jacksonville and Oakland, aren't exactly great either. But we know the Chiefs can beat the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. They did it last year. Now that took overtime, but they did win. We expect a larger margin of victory this year. Strangely, the Chiefs scored all four touchdowns last week in the second quarter. They scored 68 points in the first six quarters of the year before shockingly hanging a "goose egg" in the second half vs. the Raiders. But one positive was the defensive pitching a shutout in the final three quarters. They held the Raiders to 5.2 yards per pass attempt The Chiefs are on a 9-0 ATS run in September and 16-5-1 ATS in Week 3. This is their home opener. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Vikings and Raiders have combined to go Under in all four of their games so far. But we anticipate a bit higher scoring affair for them as they meet in Week 3. Minnesota had a very efficient 28 points in a Week 1 win over Atlanta. That was at home and they return to TCF Bank Stadium this week. They should have scored more than 16 last week, but Kirk Cousins threw a BAD interception against the Packers, basically costing his team the game. The Vikings offense actually averaged 7.0 yards per play in that game, but went 0 for 2 in the red zone and turned it over a total of four times. The defense was torched by Aaron Rodgers early, but then kept the team in the game as long as they could. While Minnesota's D didn't allow any points over the last 44 minutes, Oakland failed to score at all in the final three quarters last week vs. Kansas City. That after a 10-point fourth quarter and efficient Week 1 win (over Denver) of their own. Strangely, the Raiders defense allowed four touchdowns in the second quarter vs. the Chiefs, but no points at all in the other three quarters. They still allowed almost 7.0 yards/play though. The Raiders are 4-0 Over their last four games on field turf. Play OVER Oakland-Minnesota AAA |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame +15 v. Georgia | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is taking on a top five opponent (Georgia) here and we know what happens when that's the case. The Fighting Irish, more often than not, fold like a cheap tent in this situation as they are 4-13 ATS. The last 19 times the Irish faced a top five foe that is outscoring its opponents by at least 20.6 points/game, they've lost 18 of those games. All but four of those 18 losses have been by double digits. Ten of them have come by at least 20 points. Four of the losses have come during the Brian Kelly regime and three were by two touchdowns or more. We all remember that CFP semifinal game last January against Clemson right? The Irish lost that 30-3. So the Irish might as well not even leave South Bend right? Wrong! Because of that poor reputation in these kind of games, this number is inflated this week. Notre Dame catching two touchdowns, even on the road, is a bargain as this spread should be no higher than 10 points in our estimation. Georgia will likely come in overconfident and struggle early. The Dawgs have yet to be tested this year and say what you will about Notre Dame, they're a whole heck of a lot better than Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. The Irish have only played twice, so they're the fresher of the two teams. Two years ago, they lost by only a point in South Bend to UGA. It'll be another close one Saturday night. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-21-19 | Nebraska v. Illinois +13.5 | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ILLINOIS Saturday night finds Illinois looking to do what Big 10 rival Nebraska did only a week ago. That being bounce back from an outright loss as a favorite. Two weeks ago, Nebraska suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of Colorado, 34-31 as a four-point favorite. The Cornhuskers came into 2019 with a ton of hype and that loss shattered it a bit as they blew a 17-point lead and lost in overtime. They did bounce back last week by trouncing Northern Illinois 44-8. They'll stay in the Land of Lincoln this week, moving from DeKalb to Champaign and open up conference play. Illinois lost last week to Eastern Michigan, 34-31 (sound familiar?) as a seven-point favorite here at home. The good news here is they don't have to win like Nebraska did last week. The Illini only need to cover and the oddsmakers have obliged with a generous spread that we've seen the public already bet up. This number shows us that the hype train is still moving a bit too fast with Nebraska. Can't say we're huge fans of what Lovie Smith has done here at Illinois, who has not been to a bowl since 2014. Smith has had a young team each of his first three seasons here, but this is easily his most experienced - and best - group yet. They should be highly motivated following last week's loss while Nebraska could be prone for another letdown. By the way, Scott Frost is 0-6 in road games as the 'Huskers coach. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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09-21-19 | Phillies v. Indians -165 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -165 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND It seems as if none of the three teams in the AL Wild Card chase are ever going to lose. Oakland has won 9 of 10. Two games behind the A's, fighting for the final spot, are Cleveland and Tampa Bay. The Rays are 10-4 their last 14 games while the Indians (who we'll be playing here) have won 9 of 11. The Tribe's latest win came last night over the Phillies, 5-2, as they jumped on Drew Smyly early. Tonight, they are likely to do the same to Jason Vargas, who has struggled since making the jump from New York to Philly. Vargas' ERA and WHIP his last three starts are 6.35 and 1.50 respectively. No matter which team he was with, the road has always been a problem as his ERA is 5.06 there. Vargas has lasted just three innings his past two starts. Cleveland counters with Plesac, who just turned in a complete game shutout in his last trip to the mound. The team is 8-2 at home this year with him on the mound. While technically still alive for a Wild Card spot in the NL, the Phillies pretty much know their fate is sealed at this point as they are five games back. Truthfully, we never thought they'd get there anyway. An odd but perhaps useful trend here is that the Indians are a perfect 11-0 this season at home when the total is 10 or 10.5. The total opened at 10 and has since moved to 10.5 for this Interleague matchup. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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09-21-19 | Oregon v. Stanford +10.5 | Top | 21-6 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on STANFORD Already with two losses, Stanford would seem to have its back against the wall here vs. Oregon, a game in which few, if any, will expect the Cardinal to win. The defenses in Palo Alto have usually been very solid under David Shaw, but the last two games have seen them shredded for 90 points as they've given up 45 to both USC and UCF. Now Oregon comes to town. Despite what many perceive as being a mismatch, Stanford has always given the Ducks fits and we expect that to be the case again this year. They are 5-2 the previous seven matchups and 0-3 the last three. While that run involves teams a lot more talented than this one, the same can be said for the Oregon side as well. Winning by double digits on the conference road is difficult. After two straight blowouts over Nevada and Montana, it's easy to see the Ducks coming into this one too overconfident. As for that Cardinals defense, they allowed just seven points in the lone home game, which was a win over Northwestern. After taking on two talented teams the past two weeks, the Cardinal will be more battle tested and prepared to give Oregon another fight to the end. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-21-19 | Temple v. Buffalo OVER 50.5 | Top | 22-38 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Temple is going to have to guard against a letdown here as last week they upset a heavily hyped Maryland team, 20-17 as 5.5-point home dogs. That game set up pretty well for the Owls as they were off an open date. Now let's see how they perform having to play in consecutive weeks for the first time this season. While Temple has covered both of its games, Buffalo is 0-3 ATS. Two weeks ago, they actually led Penn State at the half, 10-7. Since then, it's been all downhill as they've been outscored 73-20. That includes a bad 35-17 loss at Liberty last week where the Bulls were favored by 5.5 points. We figured UB would struggle early on this year as they lost their starting QB and two receivers from last year. That they have with just 30 total points the last two games. But both were on the road. They actually gained 429 and 373 yards in those two games. So they've moved the ball. Back at home this week, they should start finding the end zone more. Temple's defense turned in a tremendous performance last week vs. Maryland, but that's the side of the ball where the letdown could take place. The Owls offense has averaged 561 yards/game so far. The Over is 10-4-1 in Buffalo's last 15 home games. Last year was a 36-29 win by Buffalo at Temple. Play OVER Temple-Buffalo AAA |
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09-21-19 | Michigan State -8.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on MICHIGAN STATE This is a rare situation where everyone is piling on the underdog. That's because, admittedly, Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald has been excellent in the role. His Wildcats teams have gone 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 times they've gotten points and won 10 of the game straight up. Last year alone, they were an amazing 7-1-1 ATS getting points and won six of the games straight up. One of those upsets came against Michigan State, 29-19 (+11). Yet despite all of what you just read, a curious thing has happened here and that's the line has moved up (by several points) even though the majority of bets have come in on the Wildcats. We trust Mark Dantonio, off a loss last week to Arizona State, to get the job done here in this revenge spot. His Spartans actually have triple revenge here as they've been upset by Northwestern each of the last three seasons. Northwestern can't do it again, can they? This Wildcats team is nowhere near as strong as the one that pulled the upset last year in East Lansing. This Michigan State team is also much stronger than the one that lost its last trip into Evanston two years ago. Sparty's defense should rule the day in this one as they've given up just 34 points in three games. Northwestern was off a bye last week when it beat UNLV 30-14. In the first game, they could score only 7 points in a loss at Stanford, which now looks even worse. The road team is 12-4 SU and 14-2 ATS the last 16 meetings. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |