Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-01-19 | Army +3 v. Hawaii | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY Army is 5-6 and needs a win to go bowling for a third consecutive season. Hawaii is 8-3 and has the Mountain West Championship Game (vs. Boise State) on deck. This seems like an excellent opportunity to take Army plus the points. Army is also coming off a bye as well as two easy opponents before that. Hawaii just won a hard fought game last week against San Diego State that came down to a missed field goal. The Warriors won 14-11 to clinch their division and thus move onto the Mt West's Championship Game next week. For the record, we were on Hawaii last week. They were our 10* Game of the Week, in fact! When getting set to face Army, an extra week of preparation is beneficial because of the triple option. Well, not only does Hawaii not have the extra week to prepare, they've got to be thinking about next week's game vs. Boise State. That one is more important to these players and coaching staff. As for Army, winning here is all that matters so that they can get to six wins. When coming off a bye, they've gone 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS. They've also covered 9 of 13 as underdogs with five outright wins. Hawaii is 3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS coming off back to back wins. Play on ARMY AAA |
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11-30-19 | Hawks v. Rockets UNDER 236.5 | Top | 111-158 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER There are definitely some distinct patterns emerging with these two teams. Really, the recent results couldn't be any more different. Houston has won 9 of its last 12 games (also going 10-2 ATS) while Atlanta has lost 12 of 13, including eight straight. The Hawks lost last night, in overtime, 105-104 at Indiana. But the Hawks have at least managed to halt one streak this week. Prior to Wednesday's 111-102 loss to Milwaukee, they'd gone Over in 10 consecutive games. Last night's loss also stayed Under even though the game went to overtime. This many Atlanta games going Over the total is a little bit surprising in that they are dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. While also bad defensively, they're not quite as inept, ranking only 24th in efficiency there. The Rockets are 6-1 to the Under when facing an Eastern Conference team this season. They are 10-4 their last 14 games overall. Both times these teams met last season, the Under hit. The totals were pretty similar to the number we're getting tonight. Play UNDER Atlanta-Houston AAA |
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11-30-19 | Youngstown State v. Central Michigan -6.5 | Top | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CENTRAL MICHIGAN As a double digit dog, Central Michigan was up 50-32 at halftime on undefeated DePaul Tuesday. Not only did the Chippewas end up not winning, they also failed to cover! A disastrous second half yielded a final score of 88-75. They were getting 11 from the oddsmakers. CMU will need to "dust itself off" as they are back home Saturday to take on Youngstown State. This is a team they defeated last year, on the road, 100-94. They were 8-point favorites, meaning that they didn't cover there either. But it also means we're getting some good value. Here, the Chippewas are favored by less at home than they were last year on the road. Unless there's been some substantial improvement with YSU that we're unaware of, then this line makes no sense. The Penguins have played only one team of any real note, that being Louisville. They lost by 33 points. They've also lost by 22 to Akron and 12 to Louisiana. Both of those were road games. Central Michigan's schedule hasn't been all that impressive either, but they are among the highest scoring teams in the country at 96.1 points/game. Coming off the disappointing loss, we're looking for them to win in blowout fashion here. Play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-30-19 | Boston College +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON COLLEGE Boston College has won exactly 7 games in five of Steve Adazzio's six seasons here in Chesnut Hill. The outlier season was 2015 when the Golden Eagles went 3-9. To get to 7 wins again this year, they are going to have to first win this week and then a bowl game. There won't be a bowl for B.C. if they lose this week at Pittsburgh. They enter in at 5-6 after losing 40-7 last week at Notre Dame. This will now be the third try for six wins. They also lost at home to Florida State three weeks ago. Fortunately for BC, Pitt doesn't have much to play for here. The Panthers have 7 wins, so they'll be in a bowl. But they were shutout last week, 28-0, by Virginia Tech. We question whether this Panthers team can even score enough to cover a spread this big. They only average 20.2 points/game. None of Pitt's seven wins have been by more than 10 points. With only one meeting as ACC rivals, there's some unfamiliarity here. Pitt has been outscored despite a 7-4 record - by 1.3 points/game. B.C. has a virtually identical scoring differential. So this is a line that should be closer to a field goal. Some real value on a underdog that will be more motivated than the favorite. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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11-30-19 | Georgia v. Georgia Tech OVER 46.5 | Top | 52-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Georgia will be playing LSU in the SEC Championship Game next week, but first they've got this date with Georgia Tech. It shouldn't be a very difficult game as the Yellow Jackets are struggling this year. We look for the Bulldogs to score a lot of points in this one, many more than they've been scoring against SEC defenses. Georgia Tech used to run the option under Paul Johnson, but has transitioned to a more pro style offense under first year coach Geoff Collins. As you'd expect, it's been a difficult transition with personnel fit for the old system. The Yellow Jackets are averaging only 17.5 points/game. But they did just score 28 in win over NC State last week. QB James Graham accounted for all four touchdowns, three throwing and one running. Georgia hasn't scored more than 27 points in six straight games. But look at some of the defenses they've had to go up against. Georgia Tech is giving up over 30 points/game, so expect this to be a big day for QB Jake Fromm and the rest of the Bulldogs offense. Georgia did score at least 30 in four of its first five games including 55+ in the two non-conference games that weren't Notre Dame. Six straight Unders is the streak Georgia is on coming into this game. It's time for the offense to finally get rolling again. They've scored 83 on Ga Tech the last two years and can send this one Over by themselves. Play OVER Georgia-Georgia Tech AAA |
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11-29-19 | Bucks -10 v. Cavs | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The Cavs aren't a good team. They've lost eight of nine and just got beat here at home by Orlando by 12 points. That doesn't bode well as Milwaukee comes to town Friday night. The Bucks are 15-3 and have won nine in a row. They look every bit as strong as they did last year when they won 60 games. Not only have the Cavs lost eight of nine games, they've also gone 2-7 against the spread. They rank near the bottom of the league both offensively and defensively. Milwaukee beat Cleveland by 17 earlier in the year with seven players scoring in double figures. This is an elite team (maybe the best in the league?) matched up against one of the five worst. Should be easy pickings. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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11-29-19 | Arkansas State v. South Alabama +11 | Top | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTH ALABAMA South Alabama is finishing up a terrible season here (Jaguars come in at 1-10 SU), but we're banking on Arkansas State being a disinterested favorite Friday afternoon. Despite having very different records, these Sun Belt opponents may not be as far apart as you think. Arkansas State is 7-4. All they can do with a win here is improve their bowl position. The Red Wolves have won four in a row, but the last three have all been decided by seven points or less. Compare that to poor South Alabama who has generally been competitive, but can't quite get over the hump. Having a freshman QB hasn't helped the Jaguars cause, but at least there have been signs of improvement from Desmond Trotter. Key here is that Arkansas State has a terrible defense. The Red Wolves have allowed the second most yards in the Sun Belt. They allow 34.9 points/game overall and 41.6 points/game on the road. Despite a winning record, they have given up more points than they've scored this year. They've been outgained the last two weeks. South Alabama hasn't beaten a FBS opponent this year. Their only win came against Jacksonville State. But they are playing the final game at home, which should mean some motivation. The last three years have seen the Jaguars go 3-0 in SBC home finales. Arkansas State isn't likely to take this game too seriously. They'll be happy with just winning, but don't look for a blowout. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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11-29-19 | West Virginia v. TCU -13.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TCU TCU has to pick itself up here after a close loss to Oklahoma last Saturday night. Lucky for them is that they have the motivation of needing to win here to get to a bowl game. West Virginia should be happy to oblige. This has been a bad season in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have lost six out of their last seven games. Their hopes of going to a bowl ended last week when they lost at home to Oklahoma State by a score of 20-13. TCU has had its share of close defeats as well. Five of the six times they've lost this year, the final margin has been within a touchdown. But they were in this exact situation last year, needing to win the final regular season game. They did just that, beating Oklahoma State by a touchdown. It's a weaker opponent this time around, one that has nothing left to play for. The Horned Frogs also have some revenge on their minds after losing 47-10 last season in Morgantown. To us, it's not a question of whether or not TCU wins. They will. It's a question of "by how much?" With WVU having gone 5-10-2 its last 17 tries as an underdog, it doesn't look good for them Friday afternoon in Ft. Worth. The home team has won four straight in this rivalry. Play on TCU AAA |
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11-29-19 | Senators v. Wild -187 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 6* on MINNESOTA Ottawa isn't a good team and they are set to embark on a five-game road trip that will take them all around North America. With only one goal scored in the last two games, we don't like their chances very much today in Minnesota. The Wild aren't exactly tearing it up either as they are the last place team in the Central. But they've shown more life than the Senators have. They just won in New Jersey on Wednesday, which was the fourth time in the last five games they played on the road. The one home game was a 3-2 win against Colorado. Minnesota simply hasn't gotten to play many times at their own rink this season. Of their 25 games played, 17 have been on the road. Only once have the Wild lost a home game in regulation. They are 5-1-2 at the Xcel Center. They also shut out the Senators earlier this year, 2-0 in Ottawa. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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11-29-19 | DePaul v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA DePaul pulled off a miracle on Tuesday. Trailing 50-32 at halftime vs. Central Michigan, they rallied not just to win, but to cover as 12-point favorites. The final score was 88-75. The Blue Demons are now 7-0, but are underdogs Friday to a 3-3 Minnesota team. For good reason. Not just is the game on the road, but one of their top rotation players (Devin Gage) is nursing an ankle injury. Only six players saw the floor for more than 10 minutes against Central Michigan. DePaul's defense was also very bad in the 1st half of that last game. They were slow to rotate, constantly falling for pump-fakes and had allowed 50 points by halftime. It was a complete turnaround in the 2nd half, but that's a game they were lucky to win, let alone cover. They were basically down for the first 30 minutes of the game. Minnesota has three losses, but two were on the road and the other to a pretty good Oklahoma team. The Golden Gophers beat Central Michigan in much more convincing fashion last week, winning by 25. All three times Minnesota has been favored, they have covered the spread. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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11-29-19 | Missouri v. Arkansas OVER 54 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Missouri's season has completely gone off a cliff with five straight losses. Adding insult to injury, their bowl ban for 2019 was just upheld. Had the ban been overturned, the Tigers could have gotten to a bowl by winning the regular season finale.If there's one team in the SEC that's definitely in worse shape than Mizzou, it's Arkansas. The Razorbacks already fired their coach and a loss today would mean a second consecutive 2-10 season. With nothing on the line but alleged "pride" Friday afternoon in Fayatteville, we expect plenty of points to be scored in this one. Really, does either side have any pride left? Arkansas just lost its first game for interim Barry Lunney Jr, 56-20 to LSU. They at least covered as 40+ point underdogs. But it was the fifth straight game the Razorbacks allowed at least 45 points. Mizzou will relish facing a defense like Arkansas's as the Tigers have had all sorts of issues scoring during their losing skid. At least last week they got to 20 points against Tennessee. The previous four games saw the Tigers a total of only 27 points. We'll call for their best offensive performance since October 12th here. The Over is 7-2 in Arkansas previous nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. (Missouri hasn't won on the road in 2019.) The Over is also 10-4 when the Hogs are off an ATS win. Play OVER Missouri-Arkansas AAA |
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11-29-19 | Miami-OH v. Ball State -3 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BALL STATE The first thing that caught our eye here was that a 4-7 team was favored over a 7-4 opponent. Our raw numbers are in agreement that Ball State is in fact the better team, so we'll be laying the points in this "unique situation." There have been four instances of a 4-7 team (or worse) being favored over a 7-4 team (or better). Sadly for our case, the chalk has never covered. But there are two factors that differentiate this game from all previous incarnations. One is that this is a conference game. Two is that the underdog has a more important game on deck. Miami is playing for the MAC Championship next week, which will be its first appearance in that game since 2007. They do not yet know their opponent. It'll be Central Michigan if the Chippewas beat Toledo, a game that takes place at the same time as this one. The MAC Championship is what is on the players and coaches minds. For Ball State, this is basically their "bowl game" as they've got nothing else to play for. The Cardinals deserve a better fate than staying home for the postseason. They've lost four in a row with three of those losses coming by a total of eight points. There's some revenge in the air in Muncie with Ball State having lost to Miami three years in a row. Note BSU is averaging 41.0 points/game at home. Miami averages just 15.8 points/game on the road. Play on BALL STATE AAA |
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11-28-19 | Saints v. Falcons +7 | Top | 26-18 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Everyone will be expecting the Saints to exact revenge for their shocking loss to the Falcons three weeks ago. That game saw New Orleans come in as a 14-point favorite and lose 26-9. The 31-point difference between the spread and the final outcome was one of the largest we’ve seen this NFL season. Winning is one thing, but covering the spread is a different outcome. For the Saints, beating anyone by more than a touchdown has been a problem despite their 9-2 record. A 34-31 escape against Carolina last week was the Saints sixth win this year by seven points or fewer. Atlanta had a great follow up to the win over New Orleans. They beat Carolina 29-3. But then last week, they looked more like the team that started the season 1-7. They lost at home to Tampa 35-22. They still haven’t won a home game since Week 2! Getting back to New Orleans lack of domination, they have a point differential of only +42. That might sound alright, but nine teams are better and not all of them have as many wins. Last week easily could have been a loss, but Carolina missed a chip shot field goal. This spread is just too high. The Falcons had been playing so much better before running into a Bucs team that caught fire for one game. Eventually, a home game will be won. Their pass rush swallowed up Drew Brees in the first game and the Saints offensive line is now weaker due to injuries. Atlanta is capable of beating New Orleans twice. PLAY ON ATLANTA AAA |
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2.5 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MISS ST This line seems awfully strange given that Mississippi State needs the game to get bowl eligible. Rival Ole Miss is 4-7 SU, so you won't be seeing them in any bowl. Obviously, the Rebels will still come out motivated given who the opponent is. But it's not as if MSU won't feel the same way, if not more so, based on what a loss would mean to them. While its easy to say Miss State has regressed under Joe Moorhead, a lot of talent was lost from last year's team which had the #2 defense in all of the FBS. Especially along the defensive line. The Bulldogs have given up over 2x as many points this year compared to last. But looking at MSU's season, it's easy to see what the problem is. They just didn't fare well against good teams. As underdogs, their record is 0-4 straight up and against the spread. They lost those four games by an average of 26.5 points/game. But the Bulldogs are slight favorites here, as they should be, for a game they have to win. They'll be looking to reverse a trend that has seen the visitor win the last four Egg Bowls. Ole Miss has just two wins since Oct 5th. It was against New Mexico State. Their two SEC wins were against Arkansas and Vanderbilt, each of whom occupy last place in the respective divisions. The only other Rebels win was against a FCS school. As an underdog, they are 0 for 6 (SU) this year. Miss State is the better team and we will play accordingly. Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE AAA |
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11-27-19 | Wolves v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -113 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This hasn't been your average Spurs team. The current stretch - where they've lost nine of 10 - is one of the worst ever under Greg Popovich. The one win was against the Knicks. Part of the regression, maybe even the biggest one, is defense. Normally, you see San Antonio among the league leaders in points allowed. This year, they are giving up 115.3 points/game. Saturday's win over the Knicks marked the only time in the last three weeks the Spurs didn't allow at least 110 points. They've allowed 110+ in all but four games this year. Minnesota just scored 125 on Atlanta two nights ago, ending a streak where they'd gone Under four straight times. The Timberwolves aren't very sound themselves defensively. They also give up more than 115 points/game. But one interesting tidbit about this T'wolves team is how much they are scoring on the road. Their 119.2 points/game scoring average in road games is second highest in the league. So one of the highest totals of the Popovich era shouldn't surprise you here. Minnesota is 6-0 Over this year against teams with a losing record. The Spurs are 6-12. The Over has hit seven of the last eight times these teams have met. Play OVER Minnesota-San Antonio AAA |
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11-27-19 | Canucks v. Penguins -165 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 7* on PITTSBURGH Pittsburgh came through for us on Monday, winning a shootout against Calgary. The Penguins now look to complete a perfect three-game homestand as they host Vancouver Wednesday night. The Canucks have not played all that well of late, though they did pull a couple upsets on this road trip. Still, despite wins in Nashville and Washington, Vancouver has lost 8 of its last 11 games. They were beaten 2-1 in Philadelphia Monday night as they were limited to just 17 shots on goal. Even the two wins on this road trip were not the most well-played games by the Canucks. They got an unusual five power play goals against Nashville, the kind of edge they may not enjoy again the rest of this season. Against Washington, they pulled off a late rally. It's not been a good November for the team hailing from B.C. Pittsburgh is still trying to work its way through the Sidney Crosby injury, but there's more than enough talent on hand to compensate for his absence. This is Vancouver's fifth straight road game, not a great spot, while the Penguins are playing a third straight at home. Canucks average 2.5 goals on the road. Penguins average 3.4 at home. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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11-27-19 | Charlotte v. Georgia State -6 | Top | 78-81 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GEORGIA STATE Unlike many of the games on the Wednesday slate, this is not a Holiday Tournament. Georgia State welcomes Charlotte to Atlanta with both teams looking to get over .500 for the year. Georgia State is 3-3 while Charlotte is 2-2. Georgia State is a perfect 5-0 ATS, including a cover against Duke. The Panthers will be happy to be back home where they've only gotten to play once so far. That one time was the first game of the season where they blew out Brewton-Parker 104-35. Charlotte lost its last game, 64-55 to Appalachian State. That game took place last Thursday. The 49ers were coming off two straight upsets, one over Davidson and the other over Wake Forest. Both were at home. The last game was a reality check for Charlotte as they were held to 55 points on 36.7% shooting. Can't see them pulling off a third upset in four games here. Georgia State, who has scored 80 points in four of its six games, is going to be extra motivated upon this return home. Charlotte is 0-2 on the road. An afternoon start time is an advantage for the home side. Play on GEORGIA STATE AAA |
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11-26-19 | Wizards +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Denver is 12-3. They've won five games in a row and nine of their last 10. They were a double digit favorite in their last game and covered the spread (barely), beating a rising Suns team 116-104. Washington is a young team with a 5-9 record. But the Wizards can score. They are averaging 119.1 points/game. Only Milwaukee scores more than that. The Wizards aren't great defensively and they did just drop a home game to Sacramento on Sunday. But they were favorites in that loss and got held to 106 points. Hitting their scoring average here would likely mean a very easy ATS win, given how many points they are getting. Before they lost to the Kings, Washington had covered five straight times. They won three of the five games, including two as underdogs. Denver's defense definitely presents a challenge. But the Wizards are 8-1 ATS as underdogs so far and 6-1 ATS on the road. Because the Nuggets play at the second slowest pace in the league, they aren't likely to break away in this one. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-26-19 | Bruins v. Canadiens OVER 6 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER An 'Original Six' rivalry is renewed tonight in Montreal where the Canadiens host the Bruins. The visitors are playing as well as any team in the league currently. They have 35 points (t2nd) and lead the Atlantic Division. Boston's +23 goal differential is best in the league. But not all news is good coming out of Beantown. Center Patrice Bergeron won't be making the trip because of a lower-body injury. The Bruins also gave up four goals in their last game, but were fortunate enough to still win in overtime (5-4 at Minnesota). Montreal is also coming off a high-scoring game, but theirs was a 6-5 loss to the Rangers. They blew a 4-0 lead in that one despite outshooting the Rangers 43-34. With both teams off such high-scoring affairs, our call for tonight is on the Over. You've got two teams averaging 3.5 goals/game. Boston has at least four goals in four of its last six. The Over is 4-1 the last five games for Montreal with them scoring 5 two different times. Looking at the goalies, Boston is going with their backup tonight (Jaroslav Halak) while Carey Price has really struggled for the Canadiens of late. Play OVER Boston-Montreal AAA |
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11-26-19 | Mercer v. St Bonaventure -6 | Top | 51-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. BONAVENTURE What makes this an interesting matchup is that the underdog is off an upset win while the favorite lost in that same role its last game. We'll use this backdrop and take what the undervalued side on Tuesday, which is the chalk. St. Bonaventure is only 1-4 after losing at Canisius on Saturday. The Bonnies were five-point favorites there and lost 61-57. It was not a good shooting night nor did they do an effective job at rebounding. But before losing to Canisius, the Bonnies did win as underdogs over Rutgers at a neutral site. The problem for this team so far is that they have lost straight all three times they've been favored! The third time may not have been the charm agains Canisius, but we believe the fourth will tonight vs. Mercer. The underdog Bears had not covered the first two times they were underdogs this season, but then sprung a surprise on IL-Chicago Saturday, winning that game 72-68 as 4.5-point dogs. Mercer gives up a lot of points. An average of 80.2 per game to be exact. St. Bonaventure is allowing just 67.8. The favorite is hungry for a win at home where they are 0-2. Bonnies get the win and cover. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE AAA |
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11-25-19 | Tennessee State +19.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 49-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TN STATE San Diego State is 4-0 against the spread in addition to being undefeated, so it's no wonder that they are such large favorites Monday night. But the Tennessee State team that are hosting just hung tough with #12 Texas Tech and won't be intimidated in the least. That game at Texas Tech saw Tennessee State lost by only 15 as a 24.5 point underdog. With that cover, the Tigers move to 20-6 ATS the last 26 times they have been a road underdog of 18.5 to 24.5 points. San Diego State's last game against Long Island was not lined. But the Aztecs won by 17. The only game that's been closer for them was the 76-71 upset at BYU where they were a 4-point underdog. Yet consistently winning by double digits is hard in this sport. Tennessee State's only loss besides the one to Texas Tech was by 2 points at UT-Chattanooga. They trailed Texas Tech by only five at halftime. Look for the underdog to stay within the number here. Play on TENNESSEE STATE AAA |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES Baltimore is really rolling. A six-game win streak has included victories over Seattle, New England and Houston. Granted, they’ve also inflated their point differential at the expense of some bad teams. But there is no denying the Ravens are the hottest team in the NFL right now. But that distinction can often come with a price. That price is catching attention from the betting public. The public has driven this number up as the Ravens are laying a field goal to the Rams in LA. The Rams haven’t been home dogs in quite awhile. The only time it’s happened under Sean McVay was a meaningless Week 17 game back in 2017. The Rams are 3-0 ATS in primetime this year. They beat Cleveland on the road, covered at Seattle and then last week beat Chicago. West Coast teams, because of the body clock issue, have the edge over Eastern counterparts in night games. Over the last four games, the Rams defense has allowed just 44 points. That’s the fewest points allowed by any team the last four weeks. The run by the defense has coincided with the Jalen Ramsey trade. On offense, they’ll be getting WR Cooks back from injury tonight. Baltimore is due for an off game. Our raw number suggest this line should be a pick ‘em. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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11-25-19 | Flames v. Penguins -150 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH Calgary was able to snap a 6-game losing streak on Saturday as they rallied to beat Philadelphia in a shootout. But look for the joy to be short-lived. Tonight they head to Pittsburgh, a place where most Western Conference teams have not fared well this year. The Penguins are still trying to work their way through the Sidney Crosby injury. But by re-tooling their top line, things look like they'll be just fine without their superstar. Malkin-Guentzel-Rust are playing quite well with each other. Malkin has 20 points in the last six games while his new linemates have combined for six goals. The Flames don't do much scoring on the road where they are averaging a league-low 1.8 goals/game. During their 6-game losing streak, they were shutout three times and all three were away from home. Pittsburgh's goal differential is +18. Calgary is at -15. The Flames have also lost 7 of 11 games to teams that have winning records. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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11-25-19 | Grizzlies v. Pacers -9.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on INDIANA Memphis deserves some credit for keeping it close against the Lakers Saturday as they lost by only 1 points. But it was still a third straight loss at home. Playing at Indiana Monday looks to be a mismatch for a team with the third worst scoring differential in the league. Indiana has won two straight and six of eight. The only losses were to Houston and Milwaukee, who are two of the league's better teams. The Pacers seem to have settled in nicely as one of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference, a place where we expected them to be coming into the season. Injuries haven't even really slowed the Pacers down. Victor Oladipo hasn't played at all this year. Malcolm Brogden is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Six Pacers were in double figures in the last game, a 111-106 win over Orlando. Memphis is giving up 117.8 points per game, which is a lot. Only three teams allow more. Indiana is allowing only 98.0 points over its last five games. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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11-24-19 | Pelicans v. Clippers -12 | Top | 109-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS This is a terrible spot for New Orleans. They lost in Utah last night and gave up 128 points despite the Jazz not having Rudy Gobert. Defensive woes are nothing new for the Pelicans. They’ve allowed an average of 119.6 points in all games this season. That’s the second most in the league. Tonight they are up against the Clippers, who have been a dominant home team thus far. LA is 10-1 at Staples Center after beating Houston here on Friday. The Clippers were upset out in New Orleans 10 days ago and so they’ll be looking to exact some revenge tonight. They have gone 6-3-1 ATS their last 10 revenge games. A big spread does not scare us as the Clippers are already winning by more than 10 points/game at home. An opponent that one of the worst defensive teams and played last night should make for easy prey. The Pelicans have been playing short-handed and the Clippers have the highest scoring bench in the entire NBA. New Orleans was down by as much as 20 last night. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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11-24-19 | Nets v. Knicks OVER 214.5 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
free play |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 44 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE This is a revenge game for Tennessee. They lost to Jacksonville in Week 3, on a Thursday night, 20-7. They were actually a small road favorite there as the Jags were 0-2 at the time. Jacksonville has not swept the season series since 2005. The Titans have won the last four home meetings and the home team is on a 12-5 ATS run in this rivalry. We’re not convinced about the long-term viability of Ryan Tannehill as the Titans quarterback, but he is 3-1 as the starter. Jacksonville has now dropped both games Nick Foles has started. They didn’t look good last week in a 33-13 loss to the Colts. Foles is 4-10 ATS as a starter in his career in games not with the Eagles. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 29th vs. the run. Titans running back Henry should have a big game. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals +7 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though. Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. Cincinnati will stay motivated until they win, but this is a game they REALLY want. They’ve lost nine straight times to the Steelers. They’ve lost 12 games in a row period, but are 6-6 ATS in that time. The Bengals average 17.5 points at home. That’s more than the Steelers do on the road. Take the points. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 37.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though. Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. But the Bengals actually average 17.5 points at home. This is a very low total, which isn’t surprising, but the public pounding the total down opens up an opportunity. It may seem odd to take the dog and the Over in the same matchup, but it’s the combo we like. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Cincinnati AAA |
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11-24-19 | Lions v. Redskins OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -103 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Another Over we like. A Washington game finally went Over last week, but they were on the wrong side of a 34-17 final score. It stopped a six-game Under streak. On the bright side, it was the most points the Redskins scored in a game in almost a month. They haven’t topped 17 since Week 2. But rookie Dwayne Haskins is now the starting QB. This will be the weakest defense Haskins has faced in his pro career. Detroit gives up 412.7 yards per game as well as 27.2 points. Only once in the last five games have they allowed less than 26 points. Four of those games have gone Over. So Washington should have ample opportunity to score this week. Still no Matt Stafford for the Lions. But seeing as the Redskins just gave up 34 points to the Jets that shouldn’t be a problem. Play OVER Detroit-Washington AAA |
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11-24-19 | Bucs v. Falcons UNDER 52 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -103 | 41 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER So Tampa Bay is on an eight-game Over streak. Some of the games have gone Over by a lot. But recently, the line between Over and Under has been a lot thinner. Last week’s Over with New Orleans was a 34-17 game with a 50-point total. It was a late pick-6 that sent things Over. Painful loss for us. Part of the reason we’re going to try the Under again this week is the defensive resurgence of the Falcons. The last two games have seen Atlanta hold the Saints and Panthers to just 12 combined points.The last four Falcons games have gone Under as well. While Atlanta’s defense has improved the last two games, their offense may be set for a decline. Injuries are starting to pile up as both RB Freeman and TE Hooper will miss this game. For what it’s worth, the Bucs defense has allowed the second fewest rush yards. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD since before the bye. They got a special teams TD last week, which probably isn’t happening again. These are two of the least efficient offenses in the red zone. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Atlanta AAA |
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11-23-19 | San Diego State v. Hawaii -3 | Top | 11-14 | Push | 0 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII There's certainly a lot on the line here. The winner of this late night affair wins the Mountain West Conference's West Division. Lucky for Hawaii that they get the game at home where they have a distinct advantage. San Diego State may be 5-0 on the road, but this is the toughest trip in the conference. Hawaii could only manage a 21-7 win over a bad UNLV team last week. But the Warriors apparently didn't take the Rebels very seriously. QB Cole McDonald, who has thrown for over 3000 yards this season, didn't even start. The coaching staff wanted to evaluate redshirt freshman QB Chevan Cordeiro and let him play the first quarter. We had the Under in that game and loved seeing Cordeiro throw two interceptions and fail to direct a single scoring drive. Once McDonald came in though, Hawaii quickly seized control of the game. This game likely comes down to Hawaii's offense vs. SDSU's defense. Hawaii is averaging 36.2 points and over 500 yards in home games. The Aztecs are giving up less than 14 points and 300 yards. Hawaii's defense isn't great, but it also allowed only seven points last week. San Diego State has only three games where they scored more than 25 points. If Hawaii gets going like normal, then the Aztecs simply won't be able to keep pace. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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11-23-19 | Blackhawks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER After treating us as our Game of the Month play on Thursday (beat Winnipeg 5-3), we thought we'd call on Dallas again, this time for our top Total of the Week. The Stars have simply been on fire of late. They've gone 12-1-1 the last 14 games and won five straight. In this five game run, the last four have also gone Over. Dallas is averaging 4.6 goals its last five games and has scored at least four in 8 of the last 14. Saturday's opponent is Chicago, a team that was scoring quite a bit during a recent four-game win streak. The Blackhawks totaled 21 goals in those four games, but have since dropped two in a row. In both losses, they allowed four goals. One reason Dallas should be licking its chops here is that Chicago gives up lots of shots. The number of shots is quite staggering. 36.8 per game for the year. 39.2 on the road. 41.7 in division games. The Stars will take advantage of that, but don't be surprised if they give up a few. The Over is 3-1-1 the last five meetings. Play OVER Chicago-Dallas AAA |
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11-23-19 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 214 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Both the Heat and Sixers played Friday. Miami used a big 1st half to run away from Chicago, which was a win for us, while Philly pulled away late for a 114-105 win here at home over San Antonio. That was a loss on this end. The Heat game also went Over, but only due to the fact they let Chicago make a game of it late by giving up 41 points in the 4th quarter. Miami is a much better defensive team than that as they are tied for second in the league in efficiency. Philly stayed Under against San Antonio despite each team shooting above 50%. We're convinced we won't be seeing those kind of FG%'s in this game as both teams will be a little tired. The last time Miami was in a back to back, they lost 90-85 to the Lakers. Last time in the situation for the Sixers, they were held to just 97 points. With last night's win, the 76ers improved to 6-0 at home. They are giving up just under 100 points/game in those six wins. They've also won three in a row overall and have given up no more than 105 points in any of those three victories. Miami is also on a win streak, theirs currently at five games. Last night snapped a streak of four straight times shooting over 50%, however. Play UNDER Miami-Philadelphia AAA |
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11-23-19 | Arkansas +43.5 v. LSU | Top | 20-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARKANSAS Few will want to touch Arkansas as they are in midst of a lost season and facing the #1 team in the country Saturday night. But this is obviously a lot of points. LSU is good, but they've never had to lay more than 40 in SEC play. That tidbit caught our attention this week. While LSU appears on its way to the College Football Playoff, Arkansas has already fired its coach. Chad Morris didn't even make it two full seasons in Fayatteville. He was fired two weeks ago after the Razorbacks lost 45-19 at home to Western Kentucky. As abrupt as the firing was, it was not the least bit surprising. So now long-time assistant Barry Lunney Jr has been tapped as the interim. The Hogs had last week off, so Lunney and his staff have had two weeks to prepare for LSU. Two months wouldn't be enough for them win this game, but with no bowl game, this team is going to approach this game like it's the "Super Bowl." Expect an inspired effort by the underdog Saturday night. As for the other sideline, LSU coach Ed Orgeron has made it pretty clear that he's going to pull starters as early as possible. That will give Arkansas opportunities in the second half. While the Tigers offense is record-setting, the defense isn't that great. They gave up 614 yards in last week's 58-37 win against Mississippi. It was the fourth game this year that LSU allowed at least 450 yards and 37 points. Rutgers covered against Ohio State last week. Arkansas can do the same this week. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
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11-23-19 | California +2.5 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CAL It's been a decade since California has won "The Big Game." Nine straight losses to Stanford have come by an average of 19 points/game. But we feel this will be the year for the crew from Berkeley. In recent years, Cal has definitely closed the gap on their rivals from Palo Alto. For this, the 122nd meeting, the Bears actually come in with the better won-loss record. It's been a long time since that was the case. Now after a 4-0 start, the Bears have lost five of six. Like Stanford, they are incredibly banged up coming into this game. Both teams are starting backup quarterbacks. But on the defensive side of the ball, we like what Cal has to offer more. We played against Stanford last week. They lost 49-22 at Washington State and had just six yards rushing. We warned you about the Cardinal's offensive ineptitude after they could only score 13 points on a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. While Stanford needs to win here and next week to be bowl eligible, we don't think there's any doubt as to which side will be more motivated Saturday down on "The Farm." This nine-year losing streak has to be eating at the Cal players and the senior class doesn't want to go out 0-4. Cal is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year (three outright wins) and 10-5 ATS its last 15 road games. Stanford is 3-7 ATS in all games this season. Play on CALIFORNIA AAA |
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11-23-19 | Syracuse +9 v. Louisville | Top | 34-56 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE One of the more inexplicable results we've seen in College Football this year was Syracuse beating Duke last week. The Orange had gone nearly two months without a win over a FBS foe. They were 8.5-point underdog on the road. Yet they ran wild for 286 yards on the ground and won 49-6. Just because we did not see that result coming does not mean it is without merit. Syracuse is a proud program still trying to make a bowl game. Last year's 10-win season was capped by a bowl victory. You can bet Dino Babers' team would like to get back there. Louisville is already bowl eligible, a major achievement after winning just two games in 2018. First year head coach Scott Satterfield has done a nice job here. But the Cardinals as a favorite is something we want no part of quite yet. This game marks the first time under Satterfield that Louisville is laying more than four points to a conference opponent. The Cardinals were -4 last week at NC State and won 34-20. But they also lost the total yardage battle in that game. They won the turnover battle though (+3) and also pulled off a fake field goal for a touchdown. It also helped that their opponents played without their top five cornerbacks! What a difference a year makes. Last year, Syracuse won 10 games and was considered the rising program in the ACC. Now its Louisville in that same position. We just aren't convinced that the favorite belongs in this price range - yet. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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11-23-19 | DePaul v. Boston College +2 | Top | 72-67 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOSTON COLLEGE The list of unbeaten teams left in College Basketball has dwindled down to 53. Of those 53, only 22 have managed to get to 5-0. One of the bigger surprises on the list in DePaul. We believe the Blue Demons are set to experience their first loss. They lost to Boston College last year 65-62 as a 4.5-point home favorite. DePaul's most impressive win was their only previous road game, an upset of Iowa as 9.5 point underdogs. The Blue Demons shot an outrageous 61% that day. Really, they've been shooting the lights out all year. But eventually that's going to stop. Facing a B.C. team that has held its first five opponents to below 40% shooting seems like the logical time. Boston College also has an upset win on the road, theirs at the expense of South Florida where they were +6.5. The Eagles only loss was here at home to Belmont, 100-85, a game where they were actually a slight dog. They bounced back from that with a 72-68 win over Eastern Washington Wednesday night.While DePaul hasn't played in a week, they're bound to lose. The week off also may leave them rusty. They are 3-7 ATS the L10 times they've played with three or more days rest. B.C. already has beaten not just USF but also Wake Forest. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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11-22-19 | Rockets +5 v. Clippers | Top | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON Houston saw it's eight-game win streak come to an end Wednesday night in Denver. Notable is that they'd also covered the spread in all eight games. But the Nuggets were able to hold them to a season low 95 points and James Harden to just 27. The Clippers now have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard playing together. The first game with both on the court was a 107-104 win over Boston. The game went to overtime as LA won for the second time this week by three points or less. The Rockets will not be an underdog many times this season. Considering they are the highest scoring team in the league, it's worth taking them when they are. As we just mentioned, the Clippers two wins this week have both been close (total of 5 points). These teams already went against each other once this year. Houston won 102-93 at home. That was nine days ago. The big difference here is tonight's game being in LA. The Clippers are 9-1 at home, but only 1-4 on the road. Still we don't think they should be this big of favorites. The Clippers are only shooting 43.9% from the field here at Staples Center. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-22-19 | Colorado State v. Wyoming OVER 50.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The annual "Border War" between Colorado State and Wyoming is renewed Friday night. Despite being in different states, the schools are just 65 miles apart. Wyoming is CSU's most common opponent with Rams holding 58-47-5 all-time series edge. But the Cowboys have won three years in a row, including 34-21 in Ft. Collins last season. Colorado State comes into Friday needing to win its last two games to get bowl eligible. That's probably not going to happen as next week they face Boise State, whom they've never beaten. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be expecting some fireworks out of the Rams this week. Last Saturday night at Air Force, Colorado State had an early 14-0 lead. But they couldn't hold on and ended up not even covering due to a late pick-six that made the final score 34-21 in Air Force's favor. It was the fewest points scored by the Rams since facing the tough defense of San Diego State. Turnovers were also costly for Wyoming last week as they had four of them in a 26-21 loss at Utah State. The good news for the Cowboys is this game is at home where they are 5-0 and averaging 33 points. Wyoming lost its starting QB (Sean Chambers) a few weeks ago and has a pretty stout defense. That may lead some to believe that Under is the correct call here. But you can look for the Cowboys to have plenty of success running the ball in this game. CSU gives up 206.7 rush yards per game. Wyoming averages 220 rush yards per game. Both teams will find ways to score here. Play OVER Colorado State-Wyoming AAA |
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11-22-19 | Spurs +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN ANTONIO San Antonio is a league worst 2-12-1 ATS. But at some point that record has to improve. With the team struggling, expect them to be an underdog on a pretty regular basis moving forward. That sounds pretty simplistic, but they've only been a dog four times so far. The Spurs are an underdog tonight in Philadelphia. The Sixers also haven't exactly been tearing it up for bettors as they are just 1-5 ATS their previous six games. Two nights ago, they beat the Knicks by only five points. They trailed in that game by as much as 17. Not only has San Antonio not been covering, they haven't been winning either. They bring a 7-game losing streak to the City of Brotherly Love. Most of the losses have been close though. This is the front end of a back to back for both teams. Philly is 1-5 ATS this year against teams that have losing records. San Antonio is more desperate and we should see the underdog role suit them well when it comes to ATS results. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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11-22-19 | Heat -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI Miami has quietly been one of the better teams in the league this year. They are 10-3 while outscoring teams by 8.5 points per game. The only teams with a better point differential this year are the Lakers and Bucks. Winners of four in a row, the Heat rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Chicago can't measure up to any of those numbers, although they did just win a game by 20 points. But it was against the Pistons, who have really been struggling of late. Miami also recently beat Detroit as part of its four-game run. The Heat have shot better than every other team in the league thus far, making 48.2% from the field. Don't expect the Bulls to play the same kind of defense here that they did vs. the Pistons. That was only the second time they've held an opponent under 100 points. Miami has won 8 of its last 10 and all eight wins have come by at least nine points. They are 9-2 ATS overall this season and 6-0 as a favorite! Play on MIAMI AAA |
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11-22-19 | Western Michigan +18.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WESTERN MICHIGAN There are 53 College Basketball teams still without a loss. Of the 53, there are 45 at 4-0 or better. One of them is Oklahoma State, who is in action tonight and laying a big number against Western Michigan. This will be the biggest number the Cowboys have had to lay this season and they're facing a team that's lost only one time in five tries. OSU has had two close calls so far. They won by just five points against Oral Roberts and by only seven against Yale, the latter win coming earlier this week. The other two games were comfortable victories over Missouri-KC and College of Charleston, though it should be pointed out the final margins of victory (18 and 19 points) were pretty close to what they are laying tonight.Western Michigan didn't fare too well in its only other game against a Power Conference foe. They lost by 27 at Ole Miss, but count on them playing better here. The Broncos shot just 33.9 percent down in Oxford while missing 27 of 32 three-point attempts. They are better than that offensively. They've scored at least 75 in every other game.The fact OSU has not won a game by more than 19 points should automatically make you hesitant to lay this number. This is a team that finished last season at 12-20 and isn't going to score many points on a regular basis. We'll take the points. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-21-19 | Jets v. Stars -154 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS We took the Stars Tuesday night, a game which they ended up beating Vancouver 6-1. They are now 8-0-1 the last nine games. Tonight, they get a chance to avenge that one loss as they face off with Winnipeg. It was a 3-2 Jets win in overtime the last time these teams met. Winnipeg has now managed to go 10-1-1 in one goal games this year. They just beat Nashville 2-1 on Tuesday. While they were up the whole game, it's still a one-goal win. Our view is that the Jets have been more lucky than good. They were outshot by the Predators 39-25. The Stars started the year 1-7-1. That's now a distant memory as they are 11-1-1 since. The key to the resurgence has been defense/goaltending. In eight of those last 13 games, they've allowed just one goal. That has allowed them to move up to #2 in the league in goals allowed. Only Arizona allows fewer. Dallas is also 64-31 the last 95 times it has been a home favorite of -151 to -200. Winnipeg is 29-65 the last 94 times it has been a road underdog of +151 to +200. So, as you might have guessed from a line such as this, the trends (and odds) are in the Stars favor. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON The Texans come into this game sporting the same 6-4 record as the Colts and a near identical point differential. Everything seemed to be going fine in Houston, that was until they ran into Baltimore last week and lost 41-7. That loss may leave a bad taste in a lot of bettors' mouths, but it is important to remember that it was just "one game." One game on the road, against a very good team. It was the first time in QB Deshaun Watson's pro or college career that he lost a game by double digits. It was also the first time this season that Houston failed to score in the first half. The Texans had won four of five before being blown out by the Ravens. That one loss was the Colts, so if Houston needed any more motivation coming into Thursday, they've got it. Remember the Texans were eliminated by the Colts in the playoffs last year as well. They've lost three straight times to them overall. Obviously, this is the biggest game of the year. While quarterback Jacoby Brissett returning for the Colts was a welcome sight last week, the real key in the team's 33-13 win over Jacksonville was having two 100+ yard rushers. One of them (Marlon Mack) injured his hand though and he'll miss this game. The defense of the Texans has been great at stopping the run anyway (before facing Baltimore). They allow just 87 yards rushing per game at home. The Colts won't run wild in this game. The Texans have not lost back to back games this season. They should rebound nicely on TNF. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-21-19 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -2 | Top | 26-28 | Push | 0 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GEORGIA TECH It seems as if ESPN and College Football have conceded Thursday night to the NFL this week as they present a rather unappealing matchup between NC State and Georgia Tech. But sometimes these kind of matchups produce the most value. We see value on the home side in Atlanta. Little was expected from Georgia Tech coming into the 2019 season. They have certainly delivered on those low expectations with a 2-8 record. The reason for those low expectations was the transition from the triple option to a pro-style offense. The Yellow Jackets had started to show signs of improvement, but then ran into a buzzsaw known as Virginia Tech last week. The less said about the 45-0 loss, the better. NC State isn't exactly tearing it up either. Four straight losses where they've allowed 178 points is an ugly stretch, no matter how you want to look at it. The Wolfpack are also allowing 456.3 yards per game during the same four-game span. This is a horrendous defensive output, one that should allow for Georgia Tech to have perhaps its best offensive game of the season. It's been five years since we've seen a NC State-Georgia Tech matchup. The Yellow Jackets are 12-3 the last 15 meetings and have gone 15-2 the last 17 games against the ACC's Atlantic Division. Georgia Tech was embarrassed last week. We can't see it happening for a second straight week at home. It's telling that they are the favorite here. NC State's defense is so bad right now that they simply can't be trusted to cover a game, even if they still have a chance to be bowl eligible. Play on GEORGIA TECH AAA |
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11-20-19 | Portland v. Portland State -6 | Top | 82-75 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND STATE This battle for Portland supremacy finds the home team undervalued. This is likely due to the visitor's 3-0 ATS record that includes two covers as an underdog. Host Portland State just played a couple of tough road games. They were underdogs at Indiana and Hawaii and lost both. But a return home should be what the doctor ordered. The Vikings have won this matchup two years in a row including 87-78 last year as a 6.5-point favorite. Portland's two previous road trips were to USC and San Jose State. They upset the latter. Saturday saw them beat Maine 71-62 as a 7.5-point favorite. Despite having superior defensive numbers compared to tonight's opponent, that is a bit misleading. It's owed to holding Wilmette College to 19.7% in the first game. Prior to the upset of San Jose State, the Pilots had lost 22 of 25 road games. Portland State is 21-9 straight up its last 30 home games including 5-0 when favored in the range of -6.5 to -9. Play on PORTLAND STATE AAA |
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11-20-19 | Capitals -180 v. Rangers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -180 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 7* on WASHINGTON The Rangers look to be in some severe trouble here. They have been giving up a lot of goals lately (including NINE in one game last week) and now must face Washington, who leads the league in goals scored. This likely doesn't end well for the home team. The Capitals have won 13 of their last 16 games with two of the losses coming in overtime. They put up a 5-spot on Anaheim Monday night, a game they led 4-0 five minutes into the third period. The result was never really in doubt there. The result was also never really in doubt when the Capitals beat the Rangers 5-2 last month. They've now beaten NY eight of the last nine times they've played them. The Rangers have given up seven power play goals the last two games. Washington's power play percentage of 24.3 ranks among the five best in the league. The Caps are 10-1-1 on the road this year. The Rangers are just giving up so many shots lately that it's difficult to imagine Washington not scoring a lot of goals here tonight. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-20-19 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 221.5 | Top | 94-142 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER It sure feels odd to call Golden State the "worst team in the league." But at 3-12, that's what they are. Injuries have obviously played a major role. Seven players sat out last night's game! But the Warriors still won, beating a bad Memphis team 114-95. That put an end to a seven-game losing streak. Unfortunately, they've got to come back and play again tonight. The Warriors can't count on Dallas shooting as poorly as Memphis did last night. Besides all the injuries, horrendous defense is the other big reason for the Warriors decline. They allow 117.4 points/game, which is bottom five in the league. They are second to last in defensive efficiency. Golden State's last three opponents have all shot the ball poorly, but that is not likely to be the case here with a Dallas team that comes in sporting the highest offensive efficiency in the league. The Mavs average 114.1 points/game. This will be the third time that the Warriors have been an underdog of at least 12.5 points. The first two games both went Over. Play OVER Golden State-Dallas AAA |
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11-20-19 | Akron +31.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AKRON Let's hold our nose and try again with Akron, who is the only team in the country without win this year (0-10). The Zips are also the only team without a single ATS win (0-10 ATS). But this is a tremendous amount of points to be getting against a Miami team that has nothing to play for these next two weeks. Miami clinched the MAC East with a 44-3 beatdown of Bowling Green last Wednesday. They now are in the unique spot of just waiting for the MAC Title Game. At 6-4, they are already bowl eligible. It's just about staying healthy for the MAC Championship Game at this point. There have been two times in the last three seasons that the RedHawks have been favored by at least 31 points. They won both, obviously. But they didn't cover either time. Both games were against FCS teams. You'd have to go back a long way to find the last time Miami was favored by this many in conference play. Even though Akron is the worst team in the country, they're still "only" losing by 26 points/game. An "average" loss would have them inside the number tonight. This is the most points they've gotten in any game all season. Believe it or not, the Zips have never closed higher than +21.5. Last year marked the first time in seven tries that Miami beat Akron by more than a touchdown. They'll have no interest in covering this huge number tonight. Play on AKRON AAA |
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11-19-19 | Suns v. Kings -2 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO When these teams opened the season against one another, the Suns would prevail in one-sided fashion, 124-95 as a 1-point home favorite. That was the first of seven consecutive covers by Phoenix to start the year. But a lot has changed since then. The Suns are now just 2-3 SU and ATS since that 7-game ATS win streak. They lost last night at home to Boston, getting held to a season-low 85 points. At no point in the second half were they closer than nine points. Another thing that has changed from the first time around is Sacramento's play. They started 0-5 SU and ATS but have gone 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS in November. They just beat Boston on Sunday, 100-99. They did so without De'Aaron Fox or Marvin Bagley Jr. The Celtics had won 10 in a row going into that game and are now obviously 11-1 their last 12 after being the Suns yesterday. Two absences on the Phoenix side are huge here. Deandre Ayton, who was last year's top draft pick, is suspended. Ricky Rubio was a late scratch last night due to back spasms and the offense did not look the same without him running the show. With the Suns in a back to back, the situation is much better for the Kings tonight. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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11-19-19 | Montana State +6 v. Grand Canyon | Top | 56-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MONTANA STATE Montana State has covered all of its games this year while Grand Canyon hasn't covered any. That makes this line pretty strange. We're not saying the home team shouldn't be favored, but giving this many points is a definite reach in our estimation. Montana State (4-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) has been winning games close and in low-scoring fashion, but that still makes them a dangerous dog. Their only loss was by eight to a Utah State team that is now ranked 14th the country. Since that loss, the Bobcats have given up an average of 55.2 points/game. Their last win was against Tennessee Tech and they allowed only 39 points! Needless to say, if this string of impressive defensive efforts continues tonight, it'll mean an easy cover and they'll probably take the game outright. Grand Canyon is 1-3 and has lost to a Division II team (Davenport University) here at home. They just won for the first time this season, beating Arkansas Pine-Bluff 67-54, but they were favored by 15.5 points. Not a good start for the Antelopes. An area where they are really struggling is behind the three-point arc. There they are shooting just 25.0% in four games. That's trouble seeing how well Montana State has defended so far. The Bobcats have allowed just 25% three-point shooting. Bad line set by the oddsmakers in this one. Play on MONTANA STATE AAA |
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11-19-19 | Hurricanes -117 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CAROLINA Two hot teams are set to meet in the Windy City. Carolina comes in on a three-game win streak. Chicago has won four in a row. Both teams have scored plenty of goals during the respective win streaks. The Hurricanes have found the back of the net 17 times in the last three games while the Blackhawks have scored 21 goals in four games. This has the makings of another high-scoring affair, but we think only one side is likely to hold up its end of the bargain. There was a meeting in Raleigh earlier this year, which the Canes won 4-0. Since then, a decision was made by Chicago to "go young" i.e. putting several of its prospects in prominent positions. It's worked so far, but it's long-term effect is still unknown. Both teams have given up 59 goals in 20 games. But Carolina has scored nine more times than Chicago this year (70 vs. 61). The Hurricanes also allow far less shots per game. They allow the third fewest number of shots in the league. Chicago allows the most. Carolina is the call here. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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11-19-19 | Canucks v. Stars -129 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS Vancouver has cooled off a lot. Their only win in the last seven games came at home. It was a 5-3 decision against Nashville exactly one week ago. As for Dallas, things have swung in a much different direction for them recently. They've gone 7-0-1 the last eight games and 10-1-1 the last 12. These teams just met in Vancouver with the Stars winning 4-2 as +130 underdogs. That was part of a 3-0 sweep through Western Canada for Dallas. They finished things off with a 5-4 overtime win against Edmonton on Saturday. Right now, everything seems to be going their way. Vancouver has actually won three straight times here in Dallas, but that's a streak we don't see continuing. The Canucks are 0-4 this season when seeking revenge for a home loss and 16-34 their last 50 in this situation. Dallas is 5-0 this year when playing on two days rest. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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11-19-19 | Southern Miss v. Iowa State -18 | Top | 45-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA STATE Iowa State hasn't had the easiest start to the year as they've already lost once (at Oregon State), but tonight vs. Southern Miss should be a blowout. The Cyclones last played one week ago today when they beat Northern Illinois 70-52 as a 14-point favorite. That was here in Ames as well. Southern Miss has lost two in a row, both close games on the road. They lost six to South Alabama and then by three to North Florida. While the Golden Eagles still covered the spread each time, tonight is a third straight road game and their toughest opponent to date. This hardly seems like a good spot for them. The Cyclones actually trailed Northern Illinois at halftime last Tuesday. But that was due to some truly awful three-point shooting and a lack of rebounding. Both issues were quickly rectified in the second half when they outscored their opponents 39-18. We look for more of a "full game effort" tonight. ISU may be a young team, but they aren't turning the ball over much. Only 12.5% of their offensive possessions have ended in a turnover. That's 7th best in the country. Meanwhile, 22.5% of Southern Miss possessions end in a turnover. That's a bad number. Don't look for Iowa State to shoot 12.5% from three-point range again like they did in the last game. They should win quite comfortably tonight. Play on IOWA STATE AAA |
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11-18-19 | Southern Utah v. UCLA -10.5 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCLA Southern Utah already notched one upset this year, that being a 79-78 double overtime win at Nebraska. The Thunderbirds followed that up with a cover in BYU as they lost by only five points as a double digit dog. That was their 10th straight ATS win in the month of November going back two years. That streak ends tonight. The upset of Nebraska saw Southern Utah come back from a rather sizable deficit in the second half. They relied on some terrible shooting by the Cornhuskers to win that game. But it was their own poor shooting that cost them against BYU. The Thunderbirds missed all 12 three-point attempts they took in Provo. This will be Southern Utah's third straight road game and the tank could be closing in on empty. UCLA has yet to leave campus and has looked progressively better with each passing game. On Friday, they beat UNLV 71-54 as an eight-point favorite. The Bruins have a new head coach this year (Mick Cronin) and a new lease on life. They led by UNLV by 24 in the first half Friday. You knew Cronin would improve the defense here and UCLA has yet to allow more than 65 points. Play on UCLA AAA |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs -4 v. Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC It seems logical that Kansas City would bounce back in this spot. They are off a loss in which they outgained the opponent (Tennessee) 530-371. They had nine more first downs than the Titans in that game. But they also had two late-game field goal snafus that ended up costing them dearly. We don't think we'll be seeing those same kind of mistakes tonight in Estadio Azteca as the NFL once again heads to Mexico City. The Chargers are also off a close loss, theirs coming to the Raiders last Thursday. Again, costly miscues were the culprit as they finished the game -3 in turnover margin. One of the turnovers was an INT return for touchdown and that was basically the difference in a 26-24 game. LA finished with more yards and first downs than Oakland, similar to KC in its loss to Tennessee. This one boils down to the fact the Chiefs are simply better. Patrick Mahomes showed no ill-effects from his injury, throwing for more than 400 yards last week. The Chargers, who only average 20.7 points/game, simply don't score enough to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs. Kansas City is 9-1 the last 10 meetings with Los Angeles and has covered 8 of the last 11. Same 'ol story "south of the border." Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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11-18-19 | Bucks -7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 115-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE With wins in seven of the last eight games, Milwaukee is definitely rolling right now. The just beat Indiana by 19 on the road Saturday night. That was their best defensive effort of the year, holding the Pacers to just 83 points. That was timely because their own point total of 102 happened to be a season-low. Scoring has not been an issue for the Bucks this year, however. They lead the league in points/game (118.8) thanks in large part to the same prolific three-point shooting we saw last year. The other good news is the Bucks are 7-3 ATS the last three seasons coming off a game in which they allowed 90 points or less. These teams just played on Thursday with the Bucks winning 124-115. The Bulls were our *10* Game of the Month that night and cashed as 11.5-point underdogs. But we're switching course tonight as it seems very unlikely that Chicago will score that many points again. They are shooting just 40.9% in home games so far. It's now two straight losses for the Bulls as they just fell to a Brooklyn team that didn't have Kyrie Irving or Caris LeVert. Despite those absences, the Bulls still gave up 117 points. That's a bad sign for tonight. Milwaukee has covered its last four games in Chicago. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams OVER 40 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -100 | 55 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the OVER The Rams offense may not be what it was last year, but this total is too low. When they faced the Bears last year, oddsmakers had the total at 50.5. That's a big change in one year's time. Now Bears fans will certainly want to point out what their defense did to the Rams last year. They held them to a season-low 6 points in an impressive primetime victory. But just like the Rams offense, the Bears defense doesn't seem to be what it was a year ago. When they're not facing one of the league's elite defenses, the Rams still do pretty well. A few weeks ago, asking the offense to break 20 points would have seemed like the easiest thing in the world. The Over is 5-2 when the Rams are off an ATS loss. This is the lowest total for any Rams game in the Sean McVay era. That matters. There have only been three at 43 points or less, all of which occurred in the first six weeks of his tenure, and the Over was 3-0 in those games. The Bears offense is pretty bad, but even it scored 20 points last week. Getting to at least 17 this week seems realistic. Play OVER Chicago-LA Rams AAA |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles +4 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA You probably remember the last time the Patriots played the Eagles. It was in the Super Bowl two years ago and they lost a memorable game, 41-33, as Doug Pederson was able to do what few have done and that's outcoach Bill Belichick. We'd be kidding ourselves to think that Super Bowl loss won't be on the mind of the Patriots Sunday. But so will a more recent defeat, the one that occurred two weeks ago in Baltimore. It was the first defeat of the year for New England and they pretty well got their "lunch" handed to them by the Ravens, losing 37-20. Before that, the Patriots defense had been unbelievable. But they've also faced a weak slate of opponents: the Jets twice, Miami, Washington and the Giants to name a few. Philly is also coming off a bye week, so no advantage for the Patriots there. Before their bye, Philly had won two straight and looked like a team that could win the NFC East. Carson Wentz may not have Alshon Jeffrey at his disposal this week, but he still has TE Zack Ertz and New England's defense struggles to defend tight ends. Ertz had nine catches for 103 yards two weeks ago against Chicago. The Eagles offense can also run the ball effectively. How about the Philadelphia defense? The last two games have seen them give up just 27 points and 417 yards. Grab the points here with the home dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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11-17-19 | CS-Northridge v. Richmond -14 | Top | 62-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on RICHMOND Cal State Northridge is having a terrible start to the season. The Matadors are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. The losses have gotten progressively uglier with the latest coming by 46 points against Auburn. They gave up 116 points in that one. So Richmond has to be licking its chops coming into Sunday. The Spiders are 2-0, though those two wins couldn't have been much closer. They beat St. Francis (PA) by two (100-98) and Vanderbilt by one (93-92). Both games went to overtime! The Spiders are going to have to score a lot to cover the spread this afternoon and we think they will. So far they have shot the ball very well. CS-Northridge plays little in the way of defense. CS-Northridge's opponents have shot 53.1% so far. At the same time, they haven't shot very well themselves. This is simply a bad basketball team. These teams have combined to go 0-6 ATS, but it's pretty obvious which is better. All five Richmond starters are averaging more than 10 points/game. Off two tough wins, this will be among the Spiders easiest games of the season. Play RICHMOND AAA |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 50 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -109 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER New Orleans just suffered what has to be the most shocking loss of the NFL season. As a two-touchdown favorite, they fell 26-9 to the Falcons last week. That was at home. They were dominated. Coming off a loss like that, you figure the Saints will be eager to take the field this week. But they are traveling to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team that all of a sudden has some confidence following a last minute win over Arizona. Drew Brees is back but this Saints offense doesn't seem right. Last week was the 4th game this year in which they were held to 13 points or less. Some of that was with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. But slow starts have been the norm. New Orleans has scored just 25 points in the 1st quarter this year. Eventually that's going to catch up with them. It certainly did last week. Tampa Bay's last seven games have all gone Over. Some of them by a lot. But last week's only went Over when they scored the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The previous week's game went to overtime. The defense should get better this week with the return of CB Carlton Davis. Down a key offensive lineman (Andrus Peat), don't be shocked if the Saints again struggle to protect Brees. Also, Tampa Bay's defense is #1 in the league at stopping the run. But the Saints can probably count on their own defense in this game. They come in allowing just 20.2 points/game. Play UNDER New Orleans-Tampa Bay AAA |
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11-17-19 | Falcons +4.5 v. Panthers | Top | 29-3 | Win | 100 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Atlanta recorded what has to be considered the upset of the year, beating New Orleans last week 26-9 as a 14-point underdog. The Falcons came into that game at 1-7 and had not covered since a Week 2 win against Philadelphia. Having now beaten the likes of Philadelphia and New Orleans, the Falcons should be taken seriously - even at 2-7. This might be a lost season. But the team isn't bad. It's simply underachieved. Consider that they have gained more yards than they've allowed this season! There was nothing fluky about the win in New Orleans either. What had previously been a non-existent pass rush even decided to show up as the Falcons sacked Drew Brees six times. Carolina's defense has looked real shaky of late. They gave up 51 points to the 49ers a few weeks back and are allowing 25.3 points/game for the year. The last three games have seen them allow 516 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Despite having a better record than Atlanta, the Panthers (5-4) are being outgained this year. Matt Ryan has always had his way with Carolina, beating them 14 times in 22 tries. He and the Falcons are 6-1 the last seven meetings. Half of Atlanta's ATS victories the last two years have come in division games. Kyle Allen started to look like a backup in Carolina's 24-16 loss last week to Green Bay. Our guess is that his regression will continue. We'll take the points with the team that has the edge at QB. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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11-16-19 | USC -2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on USC USC is 3-0 and looking good for coach Andy Enfield. The Trojans have beaten each of their three opponents by at least 18 points. While this is the first road game of the season, they are favored to win in Reno and we like them to keep rolling. Nevada has already eaten a loss. It came in the first game (vs. Utah) where they were favored to win by four but fell 79-74. The Wolf Pack have since bounced back with wins over Loyola Marymount and UT-Arlington. But both wins were close, coming by five and seven points respectively. One key area where USC will have the edge tonight is offensive rebounding. The Trojans have posted an off rebounding percentage of 40.5 so far. That ranks 21st in the country. Nevada's offensive rebounding percentage of 18.6 ranks 283rd. Jalen Harris led Nevada with 24 points in the win Tuesday night over UT-Arlington. But he is still not 100% after missing most of the first two games with a foot injury. Against a team like USC, one of your best players not being completely healthy could be the difference. This is a revenge game for USC. They lost by 12 to Nevada last year at home. Poor three-point shooting is the reason they lost. But, as indicated by the pointspread, this year's squad is better. Play on USC AAA |
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11-16-19 | Blazers +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland is a small dog tonight in San Antonio. But it would appear as if the oddsmakers have failed to account for the fact that the Spurs are playing the second night of a back to back. This line would make sense were the home team rested. But they're not. The Blazers should be favored. Then there is the matter of what happened to the Spurs last night. Despite being up most of the game, they lost to Orlando 111-109. You just can't lose games where you have a 16-point lead ad shoot 50%. But the Spurs did just that. It was their 4th straight loss. For maybe the first time in Greg Popovich's tenure here, defense has become a major issue in San Antonio. The Spurs gave up 64 points to the Magic in the second half last night. They've allowed at least 112 points in five straight games.This is a revenge game for Portland, who lost 113-110 here in SA on October 28th. Both teams enjoyed a lead of 19 points in that game. The Blazers ended up covering as six-point underdogs. While the line isn't as high this time, that's irrelevant as the road team can clearly win outright here. Portland needs this one pretty badly as they've dropped six of seven. Carmelo Anthony won't be coming on board until Tuesday at the earliest. But the Blazers are well rested heading into Saturday (two days off) while the similarly struggling Spurs are not. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +11 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BAYLOR Baylor is 9-0, but they're also a home dog to Oklahoma this week. Not only that, they are a double-digit home dog. That's pretty rare territory for a team to be in. The only other time in the last 40 years that a 9-0 team was a home dog of at least 7 points was Notre Dame's famous upset of Florida State in 1993. Only six 9-0 or better teams have EVER been a home underdog. Four of the six wound up winning their games outright. It should be pointed out that 9-0 Minnesota is also an underdog this week, but they're playing on the road. Speaking of the Golden Gophers, they were in a pretty similar spot last week (were 8-0) vs. Penn State and won. Bottom line is you shouldn't be writing off these unbeatens just because you didn't expect them to be unbeaten at this point. Baylor has won plenty of close games this year. But they are also 6-0 ATS their last six games as an underdog, winning five of them straight up. Coach Matt Rhule is 32-14 ATS in his career getting points and has won 16 of those games straight up. That includes 13-5 ATS as a home dog with seven straight up wins. Oklahoma's defense has been bad the last two games, giving up 48 and 41 points. They lost at Kansas State and then needed to stop an Iowa State 2-point try in the final minute to win last week. Baylor has allowed more than 21 points in regulation only two times all year. They can certainly win this game. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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11-16-19 | Stanford v. Washington State -10.5 | Top | 22-49 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE The loser of this game is going to see their postseason hopes take a major hit. Both Stanford and Washington State enter at 4-5 meaning whomever loses here will then need to win out just to get to a bowl game. Fortunately for Wazzu, the game is in Pullman where they have lost only two times in the last three seasons. Once was last year's Apple Cup (vs. Washington). The other was earlier this season in that wild 67-63 game against UCLA. Stanford isn't about to score 27 points, let alone 67. Consider the Cardinal "offensively challenged" as they could manage only 13 points last week against a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. Stanford averages only 21.6 points/game and has been held below that average five times. Washington State has scored at least 30 in every Pac 12 game besides Utah and Cal, who are the league's two best defensive teams. In the last three years, Mike Leach's offense has put up 107 points on the Stanford defense. This year, the Cardinal are missing two key players in their secondary. Despite losing five of six, the Cougs are still a formidable group. They get back on track in a big way Saturday afternoon. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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11-16-19 | Hawaii v. UNLV UNDER 74.5 | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 48 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Hawaii games have seen a spike in scoring over the last month with five straight games going Over. Every one of those five games saw at least 79 total points scored. Oddsmakers have been slow playing catchup as not even an absurd 78.5 could keep the Warriors and San Jose State Under last week (Hawaii won 42-40). But this week should finally be the time where the scoring subsides. UNLV is the opponent this week. The Rebels don't have any chance of making a bowl and Tony Sanchez may be coaching his final games out in the desert. The Rebels just can't seem to put it together offensively. Six of the last eight games have seen them held to 17 points or less. If UNLV is held to anything close to 17 points this week, then this will be an easy Under. Hawaii can't go Over themselves. They've scored more than 45 points only one time in 2019. Hitting the mainland, we expect Hawaii's offense not to be as prolific as recent weeks. The home team is on a 9-1 run in the series and that includes a 35-28 Hawaii win in Honolulu last year. Four of the last five meetings have seen 72 points or less scored. UNLV is off a bye, but that hardly matters. They are going nowhere fast. Redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad isn't the answer at quarterback. Play UNDER Hawaii-Nevada AAA |
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11-16-19 | Central Michigan v. Ball State -2.5 | Top | 45-44 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BALL ST Sometimes, handicapping a particular matchup (in any sport) can come to down to one simple factor. In the case of this game, it's all about homefield advantage. Ball State has it and that should be enough for the Cardinals to move one step closer to being bowl eligible on Saturday afternoon. Lay this short number with confidence. Ball State comes in averaging 40.2 points in their four games at Scheumann Stadium. They lost their last time here, 34-21 to Ohio, so that right there should tell you what they did offensively in the other three. The 40.2 points/game scoring average is well above what the Cardinals average in road games (27.5 points/game). Again, homefield advantage matters. It matters not just for Ball State, but for Central Michigan as well. The Chippewas home vs. road split is even wider than their opposition's. While Central Michigan averages 43.0 points/game at home, they average just 17.0 points/game on the road. The Chippewas have lost four of their five road games this year. The win was over Bowling Green, who is 3-7. In the other three road games, Central Michigan scored 0, 12 and 15 points. Central Michigan is already bowl eligible. Ball State is not. The Cardinals need to win two of the next three games and could be underdogs in the next two. The Cardinals won in Mount Pleasant last year 24-23 as a two-point dog. Play on BALL STATE AAA |
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11-15-19 | California Baptist v. California -4.5 | Top | 62-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CALIFORNIA California went just 8-23 SU last season and finished last in the Pac 12 with a 3-15 conference record. But things are already looking much brighter in Berkeley this season. The Bears are off to a 2-0 start for new coach Mark Fox and now have an excellent shot at opening 3-0. On Tuesday, they were able to pick up an overtime win over UNLV. They won 79-75 as 3.5-point favorites. That was after we took them in the season opener when they delivered a "surprise" win over Pepperdine, 87-71 as two-point underdogs. As we stated before that Cal-Pepperdine game, the Bears were very likely to improve this season after "bottoming out" under former coach Wyking Jones. Matt Bradley looks like a superstar after scoring 48 points in the first two games. This team is so much better than it was the last two seasons. But the oddsmakers have not caught on yet. Cal Baptist has already played three times, winning twice. The loss came on Tuesday as they faced #25 Texas. The Lancers could score only 54 points against the Longhorns, a major change from the first two games when they scored 93 and 112 against lesser competition. CBU gets 42.9% of its total points from behind the three-point arc, which is a very high percentage. They likely won't be able to sustain that. The Lancers also don't play very good defense, ranking near the bottom of D-I in both block and steal rate. They covered against Texas because the Longhorns couldn't hit open threes. Won't be the case again here. Playing two straight on the road against big time teams is a little much for this underdog. Lay a number that's too short. Play on CALIFORNIA AAA |
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11-15-19 | Jazz -7 v. Grizzlies | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah fell behind by double digits against Brooklyn on Tuesday. While they were able to come back and win 119-114, they did not cover the 6.5-point spread. That was at home. Tonight the Jazz hit the road, but they are facing a weak opponent. Memphis is not a team you would expect to get out in front of the Jazz like Brooklyn was able to do. Thus, our automatic inclination here was to lay the points. While the Grizzlies have won two in a row, it's the first time that's been the case this year. In Wednesday's 119-117 win over Charlotte, they mounted their own comeback, rallying back from down 12 in the third quarter. But Memphis has not done well after allowing more than 115 points their previous game. They are just 1-5 ATS in this situation the last three seasons. Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league and has won four games in a row. They are allowing just 99.5 points/game. Memphis allows 118.8 points/game, which is fifth most in the league right now. This is a sizable mismatch. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-15-19 | Spurs v. Magic UNDER 212.5 | Top | 109-111 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER San Antonio has not played good defense lately. That's not the norm for Greg Popovich's team. The last five games have seen the Spurs surrender an average of 119.2 points. They're allowing opponents to shoot over 50%. But tonight's opponent has the potential to change all that. Orlando plays at the slowest tempo in the league. That has resulted in them also being last in the league in points scored. Though they've improved somewhat in the last four games, the Magic still aren't even averaging 100 points/game. They failed to hit triple digits in the first seven games of the season. But unlike the Spurs, the Magic can play some defense. They are #1 in the NBA in points allowed. At home, they give up just 96.3 points/game. Being last in points scored & first in points allowed should make the Under an automatic consideration any time Orlando hits the floor. The Under is already 7-4 for the Magic this season and that's with the last two games both going Over. Our view is that the Spurs defense will improve tonight and the game will be played at a slow pace. This is also the highest O/U line for any Orlando game in two weeks. Play UNDER San Antonio-Orlando AAA |
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11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL Since losing 52-17 to Texas in the first game of the season, Louisiana Tech has won eight in a row. They are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games and since a Week 6 bye, the Bulldogs have averaged an amazing 52 points/game. They hit that number on the nose last week with a very impressive win over North Texas. That performance last week was definitely not what we were expecting. The Bulldogs are one of seven teams left without a conference loss. But they are underdogs this week at Marshall and for good reason. Marshall's defense has been excellent over the last five games, giving up just 20.4 points/game. So the Thundering Herd have what it takes to slow this La Tech attack down. The Herd have won four straight themselves and control their own destiny over in the East Division of Conference USA. This is just the third all-time meeting, so Huntington is not a place Louisiana Tech is all too familiar with. Their last visit here was the 2014 Conference USA Title Game, which they lost 26-23. Marshall is 48-18 SU its last 66 home games. Louisiana Tech's ascent is not something that was expected. At least to this height. Marshall is primed to win 8+ games for the 5th time in 6 seasons and they are off a bye. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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11-14-19 | Stars v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Vancouver stopped a four-game losing streak with a 5-3 win over Nashville on Tuesday. Tonight, they'll play host to a Dallas team on its own four game streak, that being four straight Unders. You can look for this to be another low-scoring game. Play the Under. The Under is 9-1 the Stars last 10 games, a stretch which has also seen them win eight times. The key to the success, as you might have guessed, is keeping the other team from scoring. Those last nine games, they've allowed just 16 goals. They won 3-1 last night in Calgary. Off to one of their best starts in years, the Canucks should relish the opportunity to play at home where they've done quite well for themselves. The offensive numbers here are impressive, but so is the fact they allow just 2.5 goals/game. A problem for Dallas is that they still rank among the lowest scoring teams in the league. They average only 2.4 goals/game on the road, which is in the bottom third. They are 29th in shots/game on the road. The last two times Dallas has been in back to back, the game has gone Under. Play UNDER Dallas-Vancouver AAA |
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11-14-19 | Michigan State v. Seton Hall UNDER 141.5 | Top | 76-73 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Michigan State started the year at #1 in polls. But they lost their first time out, falling to #2 Kentucky 69-62. It didn't take the Spartans long to bounce back though. Sunday saw them destroy Binghamton by a score of 100-47. Up next on the docket for Tom Izzo's team is a date with Seton Hall. The Pirates are 2-0 having also hit triple digits in a game (beat Wagner 105-71 in the opener). They followed that up by beating Stony Brook 74-57. Needless to say, this is a major step up in terms of the opposition. Seton Hall is no slouch. They are ranked #12 in the country. But they'll likely be playing without their best player Thursday. Myles Powell, who is the preseason Big East Player of the Year, sprained his ankle in the Stony Brook game. Replacing his production will be quite difficult, especially against a strong defensive team like Michigan State. Sparty didn't shoot well against Kentucky (39.4 FG%) and it will be interesting to see how they do in their first true road game. The Under is 17-7 when Izzo's team is a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Play UNDER Michigan State-Seton Hall AAA |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND The underachieving Browns got back into the win column last week by beating Buffalo 19-16 as a 2.5 point favorite. Despite being just 3-6 on the season, the Browns do have reason for hope. Their upcoming schedule is among the easiest in the entire league. Remaining games for the Browns include: Arizona, Miami and two with 0-9 Cincinnati. But first they've got to beat long-time nemesis Pittsburgh Thursday night. The Steelers have definitely had the Browns number through the years. The last eight meetings have seen the Steelers go 7-0-1. The tie was last year. Pittsburgh comes into this game as the underdog, but has won four in a row. Most of the wins have been close though. Three were decided by seven points or less. The other, against a Miami team that was winless at the time, saw them fall behind 13-0. So the Steelers aren't exactly dominating. Another benefit the Steelers have enjoyed is that six of their nine games have been played at home. That includes the last three. The only road game they've played the last six weeks was against the Chargers, who have the one of the weakest home field advantages in the league. Despite winning that game, the Steelers were outgained. They've been outgained by an average of 146.8 yards in the three road games this season. The Browns have only scored 38 points the past two weeks despite getting into the red zone nine times. That's almost historic inefficiency. We look for the Browns' offense to finally have its breakthrough game Thursday night in front of what should be a rabid Dawg Pound. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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11-14-19 | Bulls +11.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHICAGO Already on a three-game ATS losing streak, it's going to be tough for the Bucks to cover large spreads like this one now that Kris Middleton is injured. Middleton will be out 3-4 weeks after suffering a thigh injury Sunday. This is a good chance to fade Milwaukee as they host the Bulls on TNT. Chicago is coming off a 120-102 win over the Knicks, their second 18+ point win in the last three games. Rookie Coby White had his best game as a pro, ending up with 27 points after making seven three-pointers in the fourth quarter. With Middleton out, the Bucks are going to need someone to pick up the slack. It would be unfair to expect more from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is already averaging 29.7 points, 14.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. This situation is not great for Milwaukee either. They are coming off four straight road games and will play three more away from home following this game. Laying such a big number makes the spot even trickier. Chicago has not been a double digit dog yet this season. They've only been a dog period four times. So the market respects this team a bit more than most realize. They've covered four of their last six games. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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11-14-19 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH CAROLINA Mack Brown's has certainly made North Carolina better. But in order for this season to be considered a success, the Tar Heels need to get to a bowl. To do that, they'll need to win two of their next three games. Next week vs. Mercer is a lock. But they'll also need to win one of two road games, this week at Pitt or the regular season finale at NC State. North Carolina has beaten Pittsburgh six straight times. Yet they are the underdog Thursday night. With the game being at Heinz Field, that makes sense. But even when UNC was struggling the last couple years, they still managed to beat the Panthers. The Tar Heels were a combined 5-18 the last two years with just two ACC wins. Both were against Pitt. Brown brings a better team in this year, one that started its season with upsets over South Carolina and Miami FL. Since then, the Heels are just 2-5. But it's worth pointing out that all five losses were one-score games. Three of those losses were by a total of six points. Pitt won the ACC Coastal last year, but still lost seven games. At 6-3 this year, they're already assured of a bowl. Were they to win out, they'd have a shot at repeating as division champs. But they haven't won a game by more than 10 points all year and half of their wins have been by a field goal or less. Brown definitely wants that bowl bid his first year back in Chapel Hill. With the success North Carolina has had in the past vs. Pitt, we've gotta grab the points in this matchup. UNC is already 3-1 ATS as a dog this year. Honestly, they may be the better team here. A Pitt offense averaging just 20.9 points/game can't really be trusted as a favorite, can it? Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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11-13-19 | Green Bay +13.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 78-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY Green Bay seems to be getting a lot of points for Wednesday's game against New Mexico. Though the Phoenix are 0-11 straight up as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the last three seasons, they have covered the spread in 9 of those 11 games. Look for them to make it 10 of 12 tonight. GB has already covered once as a big road underdog this year. It was the season opener at Purdue where they lost 79-57 as 23-point dogs. That's as close as it gets if you bet the Phoenix, but it still counts as a cover! Purdue, who was ranked #23 at the time, is obviously a better team than New Mexico. The fact that the Phoenix shot just 35% against Purdue and still picked up the ATS win probably bodes well for tonight. New Mexico isn't that strong defensively. After losing to Purdue, Green Bay bounced back with a 115-64 win over Wisconsin-Stout, a D-3 school. New Mexico has also played a game against a team from a lesser division (Eastern New Mexico) and then beat CS-Fullerton by 27 on Saturday. While the favorite is off a big win, we see the underdog keeping this game closer than expected. New Mexico probably isn't as good as they've looked on offense so far. "The Pit" is a tough venue to play at, but Green Bay has shown they can hang inside the number on the road as a big dog. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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11-13-19 | Spurs v. Wolves UNDER 228.5 | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Spurs are coming off their most embarrassing result of the season as they lost to Memphis Monday night, a game they were favored to win by double digits. Instead, they lost 113-109. Minnesota is off an upset win as they went to Detroit on Monday and beat the Pistons 120-114. It was the third time this season the Timberwolves went on the road and pulled off an outright upset. The Spurs have dropped five of seven games and are 2-8 ATS on the season. Maybe the most surprising thing about them is the poor defense we've seen of late. The last five games have seen them allow an average of 114.2 points. You just don't see that with a Greg Popovich coached team. Minnesota has pulled some upsets on the road, but they are not shooting the ball well at home (just 39.4% in four games). Our guess is that the Spurs defense is going to improve tonight and that means another bad shooting night for the T'wolves. These teams met four times last year and the Over was 4-0. But three of those four games would NOT have gone Over tonight's O/U line. Lower scoring game than expected tonight. Play UNDER San Antonio-Minnesota AAA |
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11-13-19 | Capitals -117 v. Flyers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON The Capitals saw their six-game win streak come to an end Monday night vs. Arizona. It was just their second loss in the last 12 games. We see them getting back in the win column tonight in Philadelphia. Monday's loss to the Coyotes saw the game go to a shootout. Four of Washington's six losses this year have occurred after regulation time has ended. The problem against Arizona was the Capitals fell behind 3-0. That they even got the game to OT is somewhat impressive. Really there's no reason to be concerned with one loss. Philadelphia brings its own four-game win streak into tonight, which is a season-high. But the last three wins have all come in overtime or a shootout. So it's not like the Flyers are dominating. Having gone past regulation in five of the last six games, the Flyers tank may be running close to empty right about now. Washington has picked up a point in 12 straight games (10-0-2) and hasn't lost in regulation in a month (Oct 13). Washington won all four times they faced Philly last season. Three different times, they scored five goals. They led the league in scoring this year. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-13-19 | Quinnipiac v. Brown -6.5 | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROWN It's nice to see Quinnipiac has decided to join the College Basketball season! Now that they're done polling (what the school is known for!), it's time to start playing some basketball games. Up first is a date with Ivy League school Brown. Brown already has two games under its belt, so they've had a chance to work the kinks out. The Bears are 2-0 as they've been favored by similar amounts against Bryant and Canisius. Those were two and seven points wins respectively, so they're ATS record is 0-1-1. This is one where we do see Brown covering. This being their 1st game of the season, Quinnipiac is a bit of a wild card. But we know what we're getting with Brown. They've held the first two opponents to 40.0% shooting. They've won a road game. The player to watch on Brown is Brandon Anderson. He has made 35.7% of his 3-point shots so far and has 55 points in two games. He scored a career-high 32 vs. Canisius. Last season saw Brown win 20 games and a win a postseason game (CBI). Both were firsts for the program, which is on the rise. Lay the points tonight. Play on BROWN AAA |
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11-12-19 | Washington State +4.5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -126 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE Washington State had a terrible 2018-19 season. The Cougars won only 11 games and finished second to last in the Pac 12. But we thought it was absurd they were laying such a short number against Seattle in the season opener. We made the Cougs our Game of the Month and sure enough they won 85-54. Tonight Wazzu hits the road and is an underdog to a West Coast Conference opponent. We feel they deserve to be favored over Santa Clara. This is a revenge game. Last year, the Cougars lost to the Broncos 79-71 as eight-point favorites, a game which was played in Spokane, WA (neutral site). Santa Clara couldn't miss in that game, making 58.5% of its shots including 9 of 20 three-pointers. Similarly strong shooting has the Broncos off to a 2-0 start this year with wins over UC Santa Cruz and Cal Poly. But let's see how they do in their first real test. Wazzu was a respectable 7-7 in non-conference games last year and this year's team is going to be much better. Meanwhile, Santa Clara hasn't been very good as a favorite the last couple years, going 7-11 ATS while suffering seven outright losses. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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11-12-19 | Nets v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH For a second time this year, Utah has won three in a row. They are 7-3 overall, which has them right near the top of the Western Conference. Tonight they go for a season-best four-game win streak when they host Brooklyn. We'll be laying the points. This is the second game of a back to back for the Jazz. Last night they went to Golden State and won 122-108. Winning at Golden State doesn't mean what it used to though, so we don't expect any kind of letdown. The Jazz won by 32 the only other time they played without rest this year. Brooklyn lost by 26 in Phoenix Sunday night. That snapped a two-game win streak. But they are still only 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS. Massive edge for Utah defensively in this one. They lead the league allowing just 98.1 points/game. They've yet to allow more than 108 points. Brooklyn is next to last in points allowed per game at 121.7. They are 3-10 ATS after allowing 130 or more points in their last game (Phoenix scored 138). The Jazz are the only team in the West that has not lost a home game. They are 5-0 in Salt Lake City, winning by an average of 11.2 points. They are simply better than Brooklyn right now. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-12-19 | William & Mary +11 v. Wofford | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WILLIAM & MARY William & Mary and Wofford are each 2-0 to start the year. But we value William & Mary's start a little bit more as both of their wins came on the road. Wofford's two wins have both been at home. We'll take the points. William & Mary's season started with a 70-56 win over High Point. Wofford also has a win over High Point, theirs coming by a 28-point margin (89-61). Again though, W&M had to do it on the road. High Point is a pretty terrible team, but W&M winning as a 3.5-point dog at American University last Frday was a little more impressive. What the Tribe have done exceptionally well to this point is play defense. They've held the first two opponents to 34.9% shooting. That defense will be tested here by a Wofford team that's shooting 51.8% overall and 43.1% from three. But the Terriers are allowing the opposition to shoot well from distance as well. Erskine and High Point combined to make nearly 43% of their three-point attempts. Wofford is just 1-5 ATS its last six opportunities as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Let's see what happens when they have to face a "real" team. So far the Terriers have relied on two big second halves. Not sure that can continue. W&M's two big guys should give Wofford trouble. Play on WILLIAM & MARY AAA |
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11-12-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron +17.5 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on AKRON Akron isn't just the worst team in the country on the field, they are also the worst team in the country at the betting window. The winless Zips have matching 0-9 straight up and against the spread records. Despite this dubious distinction, we will "take the bait" on Tuesday and grab the points with the "ugly" home dog.Eastern Michigan isn't exactly a world-beater itself. The Eagles come into this game at 4-5, needing two more wins to gain bowl eligibility. While they've got to feel good about their chances of winning tonight, them laying so many points on the road is unfamiliar. Over the last 10 seasons, EMU has been a road favorite just four times, all four coming in the last three seasons. Just one of those four times were they asked to lay more than a field. It was last year's regular season finale where bowl eligibility was on the line. They won 28-20 at Kent State, but did not cover as 13-point favorites. It's not like the Eagles have played well lately. They've lost four of five. Ten days ago, they were blown out 43-14 by Buffalo and that was at home. They haven't won a game here in Akron since the 90's. Making a case for Akron is kind of tough. But this is more of a fade on Eastern Michigan anyway. None of the Eagles four wins this year have been by more than seven points. Plus weather will be a factor tonight (snow) as the kickoff time had to be moved up two hours. Play on AKRON AAA |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER You have to wonder if the Over is set to make a "comeback" in these primetime affairs. The Under had been 13-4 in Sunday/Monday night games this year prior to last night's Over in Minnesota-Dallas. We had the Over last night and that's the way we're playing Monday night's game as well. It's not just about bucking a trend for us though. Both of these teams can certainly score. In their last home game, the 49ers put up 51 points. Seattle scored 40 last week in an overtime victory over Tampa Bay. The Seahawks will add Josh Gordon to their offense this week. The mercurial Gordon certainly has his share of off the field problems, but can be as talented a receiver as there is. Not that Russell Wilson needs much help these days. Wilson is having a MVP caliber season with 2,505 yards passing. That the Niners are without LB Kwon Alexander is huge. A rookie (Dre Greenlaw) is replacing him. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo should have a big night as well. Seattle's pass defense ranks 28th, giving up 278 yards/game. They allowed 460 yards to a backup (Matt Schaub) two weeks ago and then 335 to Jameis Winston last week. The Over has hit in six of Seattle's last seven NFC West games. The same for four of San Francisco's last five NFC West games. This could easily turn into a high-scoring game. Play OVER Seattle-San Francisco AAA |
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11-11-19 | Florida Atlantic v. Alabama -12 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ALABAMA Both of these teams are off losses. For Alabama, that's unexpected. The Crimson Tide were 7-point home favorites in an 81-80 loss to Penn in the first game of the season. Just a bad week all around in Tuscaloosa. FAU fell to Miami by 14 on Friday. That was after a shaky defensive effort in the opener where they gave up 81 points to a Division II school. So look for the Crimson Tide to bounce back offensively after a dreadful 35% shooting night against Penn. Bama has had more time to prepare for this game as well. They've been off for five days. Injuries and waiting on the eligibility of a transfer have realy hampered Nate Oats start here. But the 1st year coach should turn things around, just like he did at Buffalo. Only 2 of FAU's 13 players that saw time against Miami finished in double figures. So while Alabama's depth has taken a hit, FAU really doesn't have much depth to speak of. With poor defense and a 34.4% shooting effort against Miami, there's no reason to believe FAU competes here. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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11-11-19 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -11 | Top | 113-109 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO Neither the Grizzlies nor the Spurs have been very good teams against the pointspread this year. Both come into Monday sporting 2-7 ATS records. But the difference is San Antonio has at least been winning some (5-4 straight up) while the Grizzlies have a matching 2-7 SU record. San Antonio did just get hit hard by Boston, giving up 135 points in a 20-point home loss. It was the third loss in the last four games for the Spurs, but the first time they'd been blown out all season. Traditionally, they have not been good off that kind of defeat. But they're facing a Memphis team that has been outscored by almost 28 points/game in its three road losses. The Grizzlies just lost 138-122 to Dallas and that was at home. While it was the most points they've given up in a game this year, it was not the first time getting blown out. It was the 4th loss by 19 or more points so far and second in a row. The previous night in Orlando they lost 118-86. It's a big number to lay with a Spurs team that hasn't covered often. But Memphis might be the worst team in the league right now. Their last three opponents have averaged 125.7 points. They are averaging just 92.7 points/game themselves on the road. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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11-10-19 | Raptors v. Lakers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Lakers have won seven in a row and posted the best point differential in the league. They've held half of their opponents below 100 points and just held Miami to 80 points, their fewest allowed in a game this season. They have posted the league's best defensive efficiency rating as well. Right now, things are going very well for LeBron and company. It's a tough matchup on Sunday though with the defending champs coming to LA. Toronto is 6-2 and had double digit leads in both games they lost. The Raptors are allowing a field goal percentage of 40.6% this year, which is even lower than what the Lakers are allowing. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game between two good defensive teams. Toronto is really going to struggle to score tonight. They are without both Kyle Lowry (21.8 PPG) and Serge Ibaka, both of whom sustained injuries in New Orleans Friday night. Play UNDER Toronto-LA Lakers AAA |
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11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys OVER 48 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The numbers aren't good here for Kirk Cousins, whether it be his record on the road vs. winning teams (0-7-1 SU/ATS with Minnesota), his record on the road in primetime (1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) or his record against Dallas (1-6 straight up, including 0-4 vs. Dak Prescott). But Cousins has either completed 80% of his passes or thrown 3 TD passes in five straight games. The Vikings did lose last week, 26-23 at Kansas City, but are 23-9-1 ATS off a loss under Mike Zimmer. They're getting Dallas on a short week. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football under Jason Garrett. So the trends aren't all against Minnesota Sunday night. Another trend that's interesting is the Under has gone 13-4 in Sunday & Monday night games this NFL season. That includes 8-0 when the home team is favored. But with two explosive offenses this week, we feel that trend is about to change. We've got two of the game's best runners facing off in Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott. Cook has 1232 yards from scrimmage and leads the league in rushing. The Vikings defense isn't the same away from home either as it has given up 56 points the last two road games. The Cowboys offense has scored 37 points in back to back games. They are averaging 6.8 yards/game and 436.6 yards/game. This total simply isn't high enough for a game that could quickly turn into a shootout. Play OVER Minnesota-Dallas AAA |
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11-10-19 | James Madison v. Virginia -25.5 | Top | 34-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
8* play on VIRGINIA Two years ago, Virginia suffered the ultimate humiliation by becoming the first ever #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed. They more than redeemed themselves last year by winning the National Championship. This year's team is ranked #11 and opened things up with a 48-34 win over Syracuse. As you can tell from that final score, it was even uglier than usual for the Cavaliers. But the good news is they still won by double digits despite shooting only 16% from the three-point range. They also turned it over 16 times. Last year's team set a school record by making an average of 18 three's per game and they also led the entire country by turning it over just 9.0 times per game. So those numbers from the first game are a lock to improve (even though the 3-pt line has been moved back this year). James Madison is no match for Virginia. The Dukes beat Charlotte 79-74 on Wednesday. But they've never beaten Virginia, an in-state rival, in 10 all-time tries. On the road, the Cavaliers held Syracuse to just 23% shooting and 34 points. Now just imagine what they'll do at home where they've never lost an opener under Coach Bennett (10-0). JMU was without one of its best players (Dwight Wilson) in the opener and he's listed as questionable here. Virginia has covered 67% of the time it has been a favorite the L3 years, going 44-22 ATS. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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11-10-19 | Cardinals v. Bucs -4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay (2-6) has found a variety of ways to lose this year. Last week, it was blowing a 21-7 lead in Seattle. The Bucs couldn't even get the ball in overtime after the Seahawks missed the potential game-tying FG at the end of regulation. This week finds the Bucs favored for just the third time all season. They've lost outright in the first two, one to San Francisco (back in Week 1) and then to the Giants in Week 3. Were they to lose for a third time as chalk this year, things could get real ugly for Bruce Arians in Tampa. We don't think they lose though. Despite its 2-6 record, the Bucs have actually outgained their opponents. They are better than what the record shows. This is also their first home game since blowing that big lead to the Giants back in Week 3. At 3-5-1, Arizona has been slightly better than expected. They actually played a really nice game last week in San Francisco with the offense gaining over 7.0 yards/play against the league's top defense. But this is a road game and an early start time to boot. The time has simply come for a TB victory. The Cardinals have three wins, but they've come by just 10 total points. The Bucs have lost four games by a total of 18 points. The home team should move the ball and will be playing some inspired defense. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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11-10-19 | Cardinals v. Bucs UNDER 52.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER So Tampa Bay found another way to lose last week. It was blowing a 21-7 lead in Seattle and going down in overtime where they didn't even have a chance to possess the ball. A tough break for Bruce Arians team, which is now 2-6 on the year. This week find the Bucs favored for just the third time this season. They are hosting the 3-5-1 Cardinals who will be coming in with some confidence after taking the undefeated 49ers to the wire last Thursday. The Arizona offense even averaged over 7.0 yards/play against what is the league's top defense. With the Bucs on a six-game Over streak, the expectation here will clearly be for a high-scoring shootout. But be careful with expectations sometimes. This high number is something we can take advantage of this week.Tampa's run defense is actually #1 in the league this year, giving up only 78.1 yards/game. So hopefully they can make the Arizona offense one-dimensional. While Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has some of the same skill-set as Russell Wilson (who faced the Bucs last week), Murray just isn't the passer Wilson is - at least yet. The Under is still 15-7 in Tampa Bay's last 22 home games. Play UNDER Arizona-Tampa Bay AAA |
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11-10-19 | Giants v. Jets +3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 68 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the NY JETS The state of professional football in New Jersey is downright putrid with the two teams occupying MetLife Stadium owning a combined 3-14 record. The Giants (2-7) have lost five in a row while the Jets (1-7) hit rock bottom last week by becoming the first team to lose to Miami. It's tough to decipher any real advantages in a matchup this bad. What's unique is this is a "neutral site game." But the Giants are on a short week. Things got away from them in the second half Monday vs. Dallas and they ended up losing 38-17. The short week definitely works against the Giants. The Jets are probably in even worse shape right now coming off the loss in Miami. But at least they can claim to have beaten a Dallas team that blew the Giants out twice. Coach Adam Gase seems to be in really "hot water" right about now. He could be done after one year if things continue to go south. The Giants offense has really not improved much with Daniel Jones as the quarterback. They've been held below 300 yards four times during the five-game losing streak. Before losing to Miami, the Jets were set to be favored this week. We see some value (believe it or not) in backing them as a dog in this all-ugly matchup. In the past five seasons, there have been 15 instances in Week 6 or later between two teams with winning percentages of .250 or lower. The underdog is 14-1 straight up and a perfect 15-0 ATS! Play on NY JETS AAA |
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11-09-19 | Blues v. Flames -145 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* Play on CALGARY Calgary finished with the most points in the Western Conference last regular season. But they would obviously switch places with St. Louis in a hearbeat as it was the Blues capturing their first ever Stanley Cup last June. These two teams meet Saturday night at the Saddledome. The Blues have won six straight. The Flames have won four of five, the last two coming here on home ice. For the Blues, this is a 4th consecutive game played on the road and the third in a row in Western Canada. They managed to down Vancouver and Edmonton back to back nights. But we think the schedule catches up with them here. Calgary has 22 points. There's only five teams with more, St. Louis being one of them. But the Blues are only +5 in goals scored vs. allowed. We think they're a little lucky to be sitting at 11-3-3 right now. The Flames are averaging 4.0 goals/game at home where they are 6-2. St. Louis has had to come from behind in 8 of its 11 wins. That can't keep happening. Play on CALGARY AAA |
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11-09-19 | Rockets -6 v. Bulls | Top | 117-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston started the year 0-6 ATS (while also going 3-3 SU in those games). They've now covered two straight, beating Memphis and Golden State. Tonight they face another weak opponent in Chicago. The Bulls did win their last game, however. They actually won by 20 on the road! But it was the first time Atlanta had to play a back to back this season. The Hawks, by their own admission, seemed ill-prepared for the game. Chicago took full advantage with its largest margin of victory to date. The Rockets figure to be one of the better teams in the Western Conference this year. Some atrocious defense hurt them the first couple weeks of the season, but they just held Memphis and Golden State to an average of 106 points. Chicago's ambitions of making the playoffs this year feel a little foolish on this end. They've been held under 100 points three times already and won't look as good here as they did in Atlanta Wednesday night. Off their first two wins, the Bulls lost by 24 and 13, both times at home. It's a little shocking that the Bulls have been underdogs in only three games so far. They lost all three. We think the market is simply too high on them. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-09-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Pepperdine -1.5 | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PEPPERDINE It's never personal when we play on or against a team. It's simply a read of the current situation and marketplace. So the fact we went against Pepperdine on Tuesday should not be construed as any kind long-term negative outlook on the Waves. If you got a chance to read our analysis for the Pepperdine-Cal game, you know that we had almost nothing negative to say about Pepperdine. It was simply an opportunity to take a team from a major conference, getting points against a mid-major. Cal won the game 87-71. As disappointing a result as that was for Pepperdine, they should bounce back here against UC Irvine. The Anteaters picked up a road win in their opener, but barely, as they beat San Diego 76-73. They did not cover as they were 5.5 point favorites. UC Irvine attempted only 11 three pointers in that game. They made just two. That kind of shooting isn't going to cut it on a regular basis, especially when playing on the road. Really, the Anteaters were somewhat fortunate to even win Tuesday. They were down 14 at halftime. Pepperdine allowed Cal to shoot 57.4% while making only 37.1% of its own attempts. That kind of disparity won't happen often. Play on PEPPERDINE AAA |
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11-09-19 | Tennessee v. Kentucky OVER 41.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Tennessee has shown it still has a pulse by scoring 71 points the last two weeks. (They also won both games) Kentucky is off a bye, so their offense should be as healthy and ready as its been in some time. With a low total, we like this game to go Over. Part of Kentucky's problem this year has been at quarterback. But they have found a solution in the most unique of ways. Receiver Lynn Bowden Jr was moved over to QB and has dazzled with back to back virtuoso performances. Bowden has RUN for 400 yards in two starts. It's something the Tennessee defense is going to have trouble prepping for. The Wildcats haven't exactly faced the most impressive slate of offenses recently and the game vs. Missouri two weeks ago took place in a downpour. It's worth noting that before UK's last five games went Under, the first three all went Over. Tennessee has shown it can score the last two weeks. The 41-point effort against South Carolina was especially impressive. This is the third year in a row that Kentucky is favored to beat Tennessee. Before that, they'd been favored just once in 50 years! The Vols are 3-0 ATS in those three games as dogs and they've also scored at least 24 points the last five meetings, including three games with at least 49 points. Play OVER Tennessee-Kentucky AAA |
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11-09-19 | North Texas +5.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 17-52 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NORTH TEXAS Most of the teams without a conference loss should be familiar to you as they are also unbeaten on the year. There are a few exceptions to this "rule," and the one you probably know the least about is Louisiana Tech out of Conference USA. The Bulldogs are 4-0 against the rest of the conference and coming off a bye this week. Their only loss this year was against Texas, which was the first game of the season. They've since won seven straight games against what we'd have to call one of the weakest schedules in the entire country. Here is who La Tech has beaten this year: Grambling, Bowling Green, FIU, Rice, UMass, Southern Miss and UTEP. Take Southern Miss and FIU out of the equation and that's some of the worst teams in the country. Grambling is a FCS team while the other four opponents have a combined 5-30 SU record. North Texas just clobbered UTEP last week, 56-22, which snapped a 4-game ATS losing streak. The Mean Green were favored to win the West Division in C-USA this year, so this is a huge game for them. They are two back of La Tech in the loss column. The home team has not fared in this rivalry, losing six of the last eight matchups. The underdog has won outright four straight times. North Texas QB Mason Fine threw 7 TD passes last week and he could be the difference in this one. Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA |